Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group first-quarter 2025 earnings conference. My name is Ivy, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加公民金融集團2025年第一季財報會議。我叫艾薇 (Ivy)，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）提醒一下，此事件正在被記錄。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

現在，我將把電話轉給投資人關係主管克里斯汀‧西爾伯伯格。克里斯汀，你可以開始。

Thank you, Ivy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our first-quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color.

謝謝你，艾薇。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼執行長 Bruce Van Saun；和財務長約翰伍茲 (John Woods) 將概述我們的第一季業績。布倫丹‧考夫林 (Brendan Coughlin)，個人銀行業務主管；以及商業銀行業務主管 Don McCree 也蒞臨現場，為大家提供更多詳細資料。

We will be referencing our first-quarter presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions.

我們將參考投資者關係網站上的第一季簡報。演講結束後，我們很樂意回答問題。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review in the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results in the presentation and the reconciliation in the appendix.

我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。這些內容已在簡報中概述，供您審閱。我們也參考非 GAAP 財務指標，因此審查簡報中的 GAAP 結果和附錄中的對帳表非常重要。

And with that, I will hand over to Bruce.

說完這些，我將把時間交給布魯斯。

Thank you, Kristen, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today.

謝謝你，克里斯汀，大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。

We announced financial results today that were in line with our expectations. Highlights include NIM expansion of 3 basis points to 2.90%, core loan growth of 1%, resilience in our fee categories despite some softness in capital markets given market uncertainty, and credit trends remaining favorable along with continued share repurchases.

我們今天公佈的財務業績符合我們的預期。亮點包括淨利差擴大 3 個基點至 2.90%、核心貸款成長 1%、儘管由於市場不確定性導致資本市場有所疲軟，但我們的費用類別仍保持彈性，信貸趨勢保持良好，同時股票回購持續進行。

Our balance sheet remains very strong. We CET1 ratio of 10.6%, LDR of 77.5%, virtually no federal home loan bank borrowings, and a strong credit allowance position. During the quarter, we entered into an agreement to sell $1.9 billion in purchase student loans which reside in non-core. $200 million of the portfolio was sold in Q1, with the balance to be settled [ratably] over the next three quarters.

我們的資產負債表依然非常強勁。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.6%，LDR 為 77.5%，幾乎沒有聯邦房屋貸款銀行借款，且信貸準備金狀況良好。在本季度，我們達成了一項協議，出售價值 19 億美元的非核心購買學生貸款。該投資組合中的 2 億美元已於第一季出售，餘額將在未來三個季度按比例結算。

We will use the proceeds to pay down high cost funding, purchase low risk weight securities, and repurchase shares. The transaction will be accreted to NIM, EPS, and ROTCE. We had already included the impact in our full-year guide.

我們將利用所得款項償還高成本資金、購買低風險權重證券、回購股票。該交易將計入 NIM、EPS 和 ROTCE。我們已經將這一影響納入了全年指南中。

During the quarter, we also issued $750 million in senior debt, further bolstering our funding base. We executed well on our strategic initiatives during the quarter. The private bank continued to see excellent growth, reaching $8.7 billion in deposits and $5.2 billion in AUM.

本季度，我們也發行了 7.5 億美元的優先債務，進一步增強了我們的資金基礎。本季度，我們的策略性舉措執行良好。該私人銀行持續保持出色的成長勢頭，存款規模達到 87 億美元，資產管理規模達 52 億美元。

We added private wealth teams in Florida and Southern California during the quarter and another one today in New Jersey. Our New York City Metro, private capital, and payments initiatives also saw continued progress.

本季度，我們在佛羅裡達州和南加州增加了私人財富團隊，今天又在新澤西州增加了一個團隊。我們的紐約市地鐵、私人資本和支付計劃也取得了持續進展。

As we look forward, there has clearly been an increase in uncertainty in the macroenvironment, given the policy decisions and rollout emanating from Washington. This has caused many market participants to hit pause on investments or deal activity. On a positive note, our corporate and consumer borrowers are generally in good shape and are in position to weather these challenges.

展望未來，鑑於華盛頓的政策決定和舉措，宏觀環境的不確定性顯然增加。這導致許多市場參與者暫停投資或交易活動。從積極的方面來看，我們的企業和消費者藉款人總體狀況良好，能夠抵禦這些挑戰。

The basis for our full-year guide had anticipated some choppiness in the first half of the year tied to the rollout of tariffs and downsizing of the federal government. Our view held that as the lower tax, deregulation, and pro-energy agenda kicked in later in the year, we would see a pick-up in loan demand and deal activity in the second half.

我們全年指南的基礎是預計上半年會出現一些波動，這與關稅的推出和聯邦政府規模的縮減有關。我們認為，隨著今年稍後減稅、放鬆管制和支持能源議程的實施，我們將看到下半年貸款需求和交易活動的回升。

So with respect to an update to our full-year guide, at this point we reaffirm our EPS estimate, though there could well be some puts and takes. Events in the Q2 will help clarify whether the second-half outlook will solidify as we had planned.

因此，就我們全年指南的更新而言，目前我們重申我們的每股盈餘預測，儘管可能會有一些損失和損失。第二季的事件將有助於明確下半年前景是否會如我們計劃的那樣鞏固。

On our guide slide in our presentation, we call out some risks that affect both us and the industry at large, given the environment. And we also show some potential offsets to the full-year guide. The main risks associated with continued economic uncertainty and a slowing economy include a push out in capital markets fees, slower loan growth, and higher credit provision.

在我們簡報的指導幻燈片中，我們列出了在特定環境下影響我們和整個行業的一些風險。我們也展示了一些與全年指南相關的潛在抵銷因素。持續的經濟不確定性和經濟放緩帶來的主要風險包括資本市場費用的減少、貸款成長放緩以及信貸供應增加。

Potential offsets to these possible impacts include even better performance on funding costs, greater share repurchases, and further efforts on cost transformation. It's worth noting that there is a significant amount of pent up demand around M&A activity.

抵消這些可能影響的潛在措施包括更好的融資成本表現、更大的股票回購以及進一步的成本轉型努力。值得注意的是，併購活動方面存在著大量被壓抑的需求。

We are working on a record number and dollar value of transactions and are hopeful that they get done as uncertainty subsides. So while it's still early to make a call as to how the environment plays out, we remain focused on pulling the levers we can to offset any macro headwinds as we did in 2024 in meeting our initial year guide. And as we look to the medium term, we remain confident in our NIM trajectory, which powers our ROTCE improvement and in our ability to execute on our key strategic initiatives like the private banks.

我們正在進行創紀錄數量和金額的交易，並希望隨著不確定性的消退，這些交易能夠完成。因此，雖然現在判斷環境將如何發展還為時過早，但我們仍將專注於盡我們所能來抵消任何宏觀不利因素，就像我們在 2024 年實現最初的年度指南時所做的那樣。展望中期，我們仍然對 NIM 軌跡充滿信心，這將推動我們的 ROTCE 改善，並增強我們執行私人銀行等關鍵策略措施的能力。

In short, we feel good about our positioning overall from a strategic, business, and financial standpoint. We will stay focused on execution and the things we can control as we continue our efforts towards building a distinctive, great bank.

簡而言之，從策略、業務和財務的角度來看，我們對我們的整體定位感到滿意。我們將繼續專注於執行和我們能夠控制的事情，努力打造一家與眾不同的偉大銀行。

With that, let me turn it over to John.

說完這些，讓我把麥克風交給約翰。

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. As Bruce indicated, we delivered first-quarter results, which were broadly in line with our expectations and reflected typical seasonal impacts.

謝謝，布魯斯，大家早安。正如布魯斯所指出的，我們公佈的第一季業績基本上符合我們的預期，並反映了典型的季節性影響。

Referencing slides 5 and 6, we delivered EPS of $0.77 for the first quarter with ROTCE of 9.6%. Net interest income came in at the better end of our expectations for the quarter as we performed well on our margin, which continued to benefit from the time-based decline of non-core and terminated swaps, along with strong deposit cost performance.

參考投影片 5 和 6，我們第一季的每股盈餘為 0.77 美元，ROTCE 為 9.6%。由於我們的利潤率表現良好，淨利息收入達到了本季預期的較高水平，這繼續受益於非核心和終止掉期交易的時間性下降，以及強勁的存款成本表現。

Fees were up nicely year over year, and linked quarter performance reflects the impact of seasonality and market uncertainty on capital markets. Wealth fees were a record for the quarter as we continue to build out the private bank. Expenses were managed tightly, including the usual seasonality in salaries and benefits. Credit came in as we expected, and we maintained a strong reserve coverage level.

費用同比大幅上漲，環比季度表現反映了季節性和市場不確定性對資本市場的影響。隨著我們繼續建立私人銀行，本季的財富費用創下了歷史新高。費用得到嚴格管理，包括工資和福利的通常季節性變化。信貸流入符合我們的預期，並且我們維持了強勁的儲備覆蓋水準。

During the quarter, we entered an agreement to sell approximately $1.9 billion of non-core education loans. This acceleration in non-core runoff will be accretive to NIM, EPS, and ROTCE with the redeployment of the freed up capital and liquidity as the sale settles over the course of the year.

本季度，我們達成協議，出售約 19 億美元的非核心教育貸款。隨著銷售在年內逐漸完成，非核心資產流失的加速將透過釋放資本和流動性的重新部署來增加淨利息收入 (NIM)、每股盈餘 (EPS) 和剩餘營運資本 (ROTCE)。

We continue to execute well against our strategic initiatives. Notably, the private bank continued to steadily grow its profitability, contributing $0.04 to EPS and finishing the first quarter with $8.7 billion of deposits. Also, we continue to make good progress in the New York Metro, and our TOP 10 program is well underway.

我們繼續良好地執行我們的策略性舉措。值得注意的是，這家私人銀行的獲利能力繼續穩步增長，為每股收益貢獻了 0.04 美元，第一季的存款總額達到 87 億美元。此外，我們在紐約地鐵方面繼續取得良好進展，我們的 TOP 10 計劃正在順利進行。

We ended the quarter in a very strong balance sheet position with CET1 at 10.64% or 9.1% adjusted for the AOCI opt-out removal, a pro forma Category I LCR of 122%, and an ACL coverage ratio of 1.61%. This includes a robust 12.3% coverage for general office. We also executed $200 million in stock buybacks during the quarter, taking advantage of our strong capital position.

本季結束時，我們的資產負債表狀況非常強勁，CET1 為 10.64% 或根據 AOCI 退出取消調整後為 9.1%，形式上的 I 類 LCR 為 122%，ACL 覆蓋率為 1.61%。其中包括對一般辦公室 12.3% 的強勁覆蓋率。我們也利用我們強大的資本地位，在本季進行了 2 億美元的股票回購。

Next, I'll talk through the first-quarter results in more detail, starting with net interest income on slide 7. Net interest income decreased 1.5% linked quarter, driven by the day count impact of about $28 million and slightly lower interest earning assets, which was partially offset by the benefit of higher net interest margins.

接下來，我將更詳細地討論第一季的業績，從第 7 張投影片的淨利息收入開始。淨利息收入環比下降 1.5%，主要由於計息天數影響了約 2,800 萬美元，且生息資產規模略有下降，但淨息差上升帶來的收益部分抵消了這一影響。

As you can see from the NIM [walk] at the bottom of the slide, our margin was up 3 basis points to 2.9%, driven primarily by the time-based benefits of non-core runoff and reduced drag from terminated swaps and the benefit of improved deposit costs, partially offset by the net impact of rate-driven impacts on the balance sheet. We continued to execute our down [rate] playbook and deposit portfolio. Our interest-bearing deposit costs decreased 18 basis points while maintaining the mix of non-interest bearing deposits at 21%, stable with the prior quarter. Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit down-beta improved to 53% in the first quarter.

從幻燈片底部的 NIM [walk] 可以看出，我們的利潤率上升了 3 個基點，達到 2.9%，這主要得益於非核心流失的時間效益、終止掉期帶來的拖累減少以及存款成本改善帶來的好處，但利率驅動對資產負債表的影響的淨影響部分抵消了這一影響。我們繼續執行我們的降息策略和存款組合。我們的計息存款成本下降了 18 個基點，同時無息存款結構維持在 21%，與上一季保持穩定。我們第一季的累計計息存款下行貝塔值提高至 53%。

Moving to slide 8, non-interest income is down 3.5% linked quarter with seasonal impacts in capital markets and card fees. Capital markets saw lower M&A and loan syndication activity given seasonality and the impact of uncertain market conditions pushing M&A deals out. Debt and equity underwriting improved coming off a slower fourth quarter.

轉到投影片 8，非利息收入季減 3.5%，原因是資本市場和卡費受到季節性影響。由於季節性因素和不確定的市場條件的影響，資本市場的併購和銀團貸款活動減少，導致併購交易延遲。債務和股票承銷業務在第四季度放緩之後有所改善。

Even in a quarter impacted by seasonality and market volatility, we managed to perform well in middle market sponsored book-runner deals, ranking number three by volume. Our deal pipelines across M&A and DCM remain very strong despite market uncertainty. In fact, our M&A pipeline is at all-time highs in terms of number and value of transactions, given pent-up demand. We are hopeful these deals get done as market uncertainty subsides.

即使在受到季節性和市場波動影響的季度中，我們也在中端市場贊助的帳簿管理人交易中表現良好，按交易量排名第三。儘管市場存在不確定性，但我們在併購和 DCM 領域的交易管道仍然非常強勁。事實上，考慮到被壓抑的需求，我們的併購交易數量和價值都達到了歷史最高水準。我們希望隨著市場不確定性的消退，這些交易能夠完成。

The wealth business delivered a solid quarter with increased annuity sales activity. We also continue to see positive momentum in fee-based AUM growth from the private banks. Our global markets business was up slightly this quarter with increased client hedging activity in FX and energy-related commodities.

財富業務本季表現穩健，年金銷售活動增加。我們也持續看到私人銀行收費型資產管理規模成長的正面勢頭。本季度，我們的全球市場業務略有成長，客戶對外匯和能源相關商品的對沖活動增加。

On slide 9, expenses were managed tightly, up 1.7% linked quarter, primarily reflecting seasonality in salaries and benefits. Our latest TOP program is underway, and this gives us the capacity to self-fund our growth initiatives.

在投影片 9 中，費用管理嚴格，季增 1.7%，主要反映了工資和福利的季節性。我們最新的 TOP 計劃正在進行中，這使我們能夠自行資助我們的成長計劃。

On slide 10, period end and average loans were down slightly. This reflects the non-core transaction of $1.9 billion as well as auto runoff of $700 million. Excluding non-core, loans were up approximately 1% on a period-end basis. The private bank continued to make good progress with period-end loans up about $550 million to $3.7 billion at the end of the quarter.

在幻燈片 10 中，期末和平均貸款略有下降。這反映了 19 億美元的非核心交易以及 7 億美元的自動流失。不包括非核心貸款，貸款在期末上漲了約 1%。該私人銀行繼續取得良好進展，期末貸款增加約 5.5 億美元，至本季末的 37 億美元。

Commercial loans were up slightly with a modest increase in line utilization as some of our corporate banking clients drew down on their lines to finance inventory bills ahead of tariffs. We also saw a modest increase in capital call line usage given M&A activity in our sponsor base. And core retail loans grew slightly driven by home equity and mortgage.

商業貸款略有增加，額度利用率也略有上升，因為我們的一些企業銀行客戶在關稅生效前動用了額度來支付庫存帳單。考慮到我們發起人群體中的併購活動，我們也看到資本調用額度使用量略有增加。受房屋淨值和抵押貸款的推動，核心零售貸款略有增長。

Next on slides 11 and 12, we continue to do a good job on deposits, growing on a spot basis, primarily in low-cost categories in what is typically a seasonally down quarter. Period-end deposits were up approximately $3 billion or 2%, driven primarily by low-cost growth in the private bank and consumer, partially offset by a seasonal decrease in commercial.

接下來在第 11 和 12 張幻燈片中，我們繼續在存款方面做得很好，現貨基礎上有所增長，主要是在通常為季節性下滑季度的低成本類別中。期末存款增加約 30 億美元，增幅 2%，主要受私人銀行和消費者低成本成長的推動，但商業業務的季節性下降部分抵消了這一增長。

The private bank continues to add customers and grow nicely, with period-end deposits increasing by about $1.7 billion to $8.7 billion at the end of the first quarter. Our retail franchise grew deposits in low-cost categories this quarter, and we continued to maintain strong CD retention rates even as we reduced yields.

該私人銀行繼續增加客戶並實現良好成長，第一季末期末存款增加約 17 億美元，達到 87 億美元。本季度，我們的零售特許經營業務在低成本類別的存款有所增長，儘管我們降低了收益率，但我們仍然保持了強勁的存單留存率。

Stable retail deposits are 68% of our total deposits, which compares to a peer average of about 55%. This was a big driver of our improving deposit costs this quarter as our deposit franchise continues to perform well in a competitive environment.

穩定的零售存款占我們總存款的 68%，而同業的平均水平約為 55%。由於我們的存款業務在競爭環境中持續表現良好，這是我們本季存款成本改善的一大推動力。

Our interest-bearing deposit costs are down 18 basis points in quarter, translating to a 53% cumulative down-beta. We continue to maintain a robust level of liquidity with a pro forma LCR of 122%, significantly above the Category I bank requirement.

我們的計息存款成本本季下降了 18 個基點，相當於累計下降 53%。我們繼續保持強勁的流動性水平，預計流動性覆蓋率為 122%，遠高於第一類銀行的要求。

Moving to credit on slide 13, net charge-offs of 58 basis points for the quarter included a 7-basis-point impact from the non-core transaction. Excluding this impact, net charge-offs were 51 basis points, which was down modestly from 53 basis points in the prior quarter in line with our expectations.

轉到投影片 13 上的信貸，本季淨沖銷 58 個基點，其中包括非核心交易產生的 7 個基點的影響。排除此影響，淨沖銷額為 51 個基點，較上一季的 53 個基點略有下降，符合我們的預期。

Commercial charge-offs were down modestly driven by a sequential decline in general office. Retail charge-offs were broadly stable, excluding the impact of the non-core transaction.

由於一般辦公室業務連續下滑，商業沖銷略為下降。除去非核心交易的影響，零售沖銷額基本上保持穩定。

Of note, non-accrual loans were down 5% linked quarter, reflecting a decline in commercial as we continue to work out general office loans. Retail non-accrual loans also decreased as a result of the non-core transaction and continued runoff of the auto portfolio.

值得注意的是，非應計貸款較上季下降 5%，反映出商業貸款的下降，因為我們繼續處理一般辦公貸款。由於非核心交易和汽車投資組合的持續流失，零售非應計貸款也有所減少。

Turning to the allowance for credit losses on slide 14. The allowance was relatively stable at 1.61% this quarter as portfolio mix continues to improve due to back-book runoff and lower loss-content front-book originations, offset by a slightly more conservative loss forecast. The economic forecast supporting the allowance reflects a mild recession similar to last quarter and macro impacts from tariffs.

前往投影片 14 上的信貸損失準備金。本季撥備相對穩定在 1.61%，因為由於後期帳簿流失和前期帳簿損失內容減少，投資組合結構繼續改善，但損失預測略為保守，從而抵消了這一影響。支持該配額的經濟預測反映了與上一季類似的溫和衰退以及關稅帶來的宏觀影響。

The reserve for the $2.86 billion general office portfolio is $351 million, which represents a coverage of 12.3%, broadly stable with the prior quarter. Note that the cumulative charge-offs plus the current reserve translates to an expected loss rate of about 20% against the March 2023 loan balance when industry losses commenced.

28.6 億美元的一般辦公室投資組合的儲備金為 3.51 億美元，覆蓋率為 12.3%，與上一季基本穩定。請注意，累計沖銷額加上當前準備金，相當於產業虧損開始時，2023 年 3 月貸款餘額的預期損失率約為 20%。

Moving to slide 15, we have maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio is 10.64%. Adjusting for the AOCI opt-out removal, our CET1l ratio was stable at 9.1%. Given our strong capital position, we repurchased $200 million in common shares and including dividends, we've returned a total of $386 million to shareholders in the first quarter.

轉到第 15 張投影片，我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.64%。經過 AOCI 退出移除調整後，我們的 CET1l 比率穩定在 9.1%。鑑於我們強大的資本狀況，我們回購了價值 2 億美元的普通股，包括股息，我們在第一季向股東返還了總計 3.86 億美元。

Turning to slide 16, we provide some details on the non-core portfolio. As I mentioned earlier, we took the opportunity to accelerate the rundown of the portfolio with an agreement to sell approximately $1.9 billion of education loans.

翻到第 16 張投影片，我們提供了一些有關非核心投資組合的詳細資訊。正如我之前提到的，我們藉此機會透過出售約 19 億美元的教育貸款來加速投資組合的縮減。

We recognize the $25 million charge-off associated with this portfolio that was covered by a pre-existing allowance. $200 million of the sale settled in the first quarter, with the remainder scheduled to settle ratably each quarter through 2025. We expect to use the proceeds to pay down high-cost funding, invest in low-risk investment securities, and repurchase shares. With this redeployment, the transaction will be accretive to NIM, EPS, and ROTCE.

我們確認與該投資組合相關的 2,500 萬美元沖銷額已由預先存在的準備金支付。其中 2 億美元的銷售額已於第一季結算，剩餘金額計劃於 2025 年之前的每個季度按比例結算。我們預計將利用所得款項償還高成本資金、投資低創投證券、回購股票。透過此次重新部署，該交易將增加 NIM、EPS 和 ROTCE。

Moving to slide 17. We are well positioned to drive strong performance over the medium term with our overall three-part strategy, a transformed consumer bank, the best positioned commercial bank among our regional peers, and our aspiration to build the premier bank-owned private bank and private wealth franchise.

移至投影片 17。我們擁有三部分整體策略，即轉型的消費者銀行、區域同業中定位最佳的商業銀行，以及打造首屈一指的銀行旗下私人銀行和私人財富特許經營權的願望，完全有能力在中期實現強勁業績。

We continue to make excellent progress on the private bank. We delivered our strongest deposit growth quarter so far, adding $1.7 billion of deposits to end the first quarter at $8.7 billion. And the mix continues to be very attractive with slightly over 40% in non-interest bearing.

我們在私人銀行業務上繼續取得優異進展。我們實現了迄今為止最強勁的季度存款成長，增加了 17 億美元的存款，第一季末存款總額達到 87 億美元。而且，無息貸款佔比略高於 40%，這一組合仍然非常有吸引力。

We also ended the quarter with $3.7 billion in loans and $5.2 billion in AUM. With a [$0.04] contribution from the business in the first quarter, we are tracking well against our 5% accretion estimate to Citizens' bottom line in 2025 and to deliver a 20% to 24% return on equity.

本季結束時，我們的貸款總額為 37 億美元，資產管理總額為 52 億美元。憑藉第一季業務貢獻的 [$0.04]，我們很好地實現了對 2025 年 Citizens 底線 5% 增長的預期，並實現了 20% 至 24% 的股本回報率。

Moving to slide 18, we provide our guide for the second quarter. We expect net interest income to be up approximately 3%, driven by an improvement in net interest margin of approximately 5 basis points and day count. This pick-up in net interest margin is primarily attributable to the time-based benefits of non-core runoff and reduced drag from terminated swaps.

轉到第 18 張投影片，我們提供了第二季的指南。我們預計淨利息收入將成長約 3%，這得益於淨利差約 5 個基點和天數的改善。淨利差的回升主要歸因於非核心業務流失所帶來的時間效益以及掉期終止帶來的拖累減少。

Non-interest income is expected to be up mid to high single digits, led by capital markets, with some risk if market uncertainty persists. FXs and derivatives and wealth should also provide a lift for the quarter.

在資本市場的帶動下，非利息收入預計將實現中高個位數成長，但如果市場不確定性持續存在，則會帶來一定風險。外匯、衍生性商品和財富也應為本季帶來提振。

We are projecting expenses to be broadly stable. Credit trends are expected to improve slightly from the first quarter charge-off level, excluding the non-core transaction. And we should end the second quarter with CET1 in the range of 10.5% to 10.75%, including share repurchases of approximately $200 million which could increase depending on loan growth.

我們預計支出將大致保持穩定。預計信貸趨勢將從第一季的沖銷水準略有改善（不包括非核心交易）。到第二季末，我們的 CET1 應該在 10.5% 至 10.75% 的範圍內，其中包括約 2 億美元的股票回購，該金額可能會根據貸款成長而增加。

Currently, our full-year outlook remains broadly in line with the guide we provided in January, which contemplated a pick-up in business activity in the second half of the year. However, if the current challenges in the external environment persist, there could be select risks that impact us as well as the broader industry.

目前，我們的全年展望與我們一月份提供的指引大致一致，預計下半年商業活動將會回升。然而，如果當前外部環境的挑戰持續存在，可能會出現一些影響我們以及整個產業的特定風險。

Persistent market volatility could impact capital markets revenue and anticipated loan growth in the second half of the year. While the assumptions incorporated in our current reserve are conservative and our corporate and consumer borrowers are broadly in good shape, heightened likelihood of a deeper recession could lead to higher provision.

持續的市場波動可能會影響下半年資本市場收入和預期的貸款成長。雖然我們目前的儲備中所包含的假設是保守的，而且我們的企業和消費者藉款人總體狀況良好，但經濟衰退加劇的可能性加大可能會導致更高的撥備。

However, if these risks arise, we have potential offsets we can leverage. Lower loan growth could facilitate additional share repurchases, as well as the opportunity to further lower deposit costs as we continue executing our deposit pricing playbook. We would also take the opportunity to manage expenses down through streamlining our operations and further cost transformation.

然而，如果這些風險出現，我們也有可以利用的潛在抵銷措施。較低的貸款成長率可能有利於額外的股票回購，並且隨著我們繼續執行存款定價策略，還有機會進一步降低存款成本。我們也將藉此機會透過精簡營運和進一步的成本轉型來降低費用。

Looking out to the medium term, we see a clear path to achieving our 16% to 18% ROTCE target. Expanding our net interest margin is an important driver, and we project to be 3.05% to 3.10% in 4Q '25; 3.15% to 3.30% in 4Q '26 and in the 3.25% to 3.50% range in 2027. Slide 21 in our appendix provides some incremental details on our net interest margin progression to 2027. This combined with the impact of successful execution of our strategic initiatives should drive ROTCE meaningfully higher by 2027.

展望中期，我們看到了實現 16% 至 18% ROTCE 目標的明確途徑。擴大淨利差是重要驅動力，我們預計2025年第四季將達到 3.15% 至 3.30%，2027 年將達到 3.25% 至 3.50%。附錄中的第 21 張投影片提供了有關我們到 2027 年淨利差進展的一些增量細節。這一點，加上我們成功執行策略措施的影響，應該會推動 ROTCE 在 2027 年大幅提升。

To wrap up, we delivered Q1 results that were in line with our expectations highlighted by growth in net interest margins. While the market uncertainty has impacted capital markets revenues, deal backlogs are at all-time highs. We accelerated the runoff of non-core with the education loan sale, which will be accretive to NIM, EPS, and ROTCE.

總而言之，我們第一季的業績符合我們的預期，淨利差的成長尤為突出。儘管市場不確定性影響了資本市場收入，但交易積壓量卻達到了歷史高點。我們透過出售教育貸款加速了非核心業務的流失，這將增加淨利息收入 (NIM)、每股盈餘 (EPS) 和剩餘營運資本支出 (ROTCE)。

We entered the quarter with strong capital, liquidity, and reserves, which puts us in an excellent position to support our clients while navigating market uncertainty. And we continue to drive forward our strategic initiatives with the private bank progression particularly noteworthy.

我們在本季擁有強大的資本、流動性和儲備，這使我們能夠在應對市場不確定性的同時為客戶提供支援。我們將繼續推進我們的策略性舉措，其中私人銀行的進展尤其引人注目。

With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

說完這些，我就把它交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. Operator Ivy, let's open it up for Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。操作員 Ivy，我們開始問答環節。

Thank you Mr. Van Saun. We were now ready for the question-and-answer portion of the call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝 Van Saun 先生。現在我們已經準備好進行電話會議的問答部分了。（操作員指示）

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰·潘卡里（John Pancari），Evercore ISI。

Good morning. Just on the balance sheet growth, just wanted to see if you can give us a little bit more color around loan demand, what you're seeing here in this backdrop. Are you seeing -- what are some of the trends in line utilization? Are you seeing any weakening of the pipeline and also any type of pre-tariff inventory build that might have driven a little bit of the growth in the near term but might be more of a pull-forward versus the outlook? If you can just give us some color there. Thanks.

早安.就資產負債表的增長而言，我只是想看看您是否可以為我們提供更多關於貸款需求的信息，以及您在這種背景下看到的情況。您是否看到了—線路利用率的一些趨勢是什麼？您是否看到管道出現任何減弱跡象，以及任何類型的關稅前庫存增加，這些可能在短期內推動一點增長，但與前景相比可能更具拉動作用？如果您能給我們一些顏色的話。謝謝。

Yeah. I'll start off and others will chime in here. But maybe just starting in commercial, we are seeing some line utilization increases. We saw that up a couple percentage points at the end of the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. That was driven by a number of factors.

是的。我先開始，其他人也加入進來。但也許只是從商業角度開始，我們就看到一些線路利用率的提高。我們發現，第一季末的這一數字與第四季相比上升了幾個百分點。這是由多種因素造成的。

We think tariffs is part of the story, but I'd also say that M&A and some working capital is in there as well. And that was both in our corporate banking business as well as on the sponsor side in our utilization in our subscription line side of the house and commercial. So we are seeing some of that trending. And frankly, given the expected pick-up in business activity in the second half, there's some expectation that we'll see that continue, assuming some of this uncertainty subsides.

我們認為關稅是原因之一，但我還想說併購和一些營運資金也是原因之一。這不僅體現在我們的公司銀行業務中，也體現在贊助商方面，體現在我們在房屋和商業訂閱線路方面的利用中。所以我們看到了一些這樣的趨勢。坦白說，考慮到預計下半年商業活動將回升，我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去，前提是這種不確定性已消退。

On the consumer side of things, we're seeing good take up on the resi and HELOC side of the ledger, given where the rate environment is. HELOC in particular has been a really strong story for us. And last but not least, I threw out the private bank, which continues to drive growth. So you're seeing all three of the legs of the story, as you heard earlier, contributing to the loan growth outlook.

從消費者角度來看，考慮到目前的利率環境，我們看到住宅和 HELOC 方面的接受度很好。對我們來說，HELOC 尤其具有影響力。最後但同樣重要的一點是，我拋棄了私人銀行，它繼續推動著成長。因此，正如您之前所聽到的，您將看到故事的所有三個方面都對貸款成長前景做出了貢獻。

And maybe I'll just pause there and see if there's other color to add.

也許我只是在那裡停下來看看是否還有其他顏色可以添加。

Yeah. I would affirm what John said. It's Don. I think as we talk to customers, we're hearing a little bit of expansion desire. They've gone a little bit to the sidelines right now just given what's going on with the uncertainty in the environment. The other thing, John, that's been going on really powerfully in the first quarter is we've gotten disintermediated by the bond markets. We had an extremely strong bond quarter and some of that came off of our balance sheet as clients access, particularly, the high yield market.

是的。我同意約翰所說的話。是唐。我認為，當我們與客戶交談時，我們聽到了一些擴張的願望。鑑於目前環境的不確定性，他們現在有點退居二線了。約翰，第一季發生的另一件事非常有力，那就是我們已經被債券市場取代。我們的債券季度表現非常強勁，其中一些來自我們資產負債表上的客戶進入，特別是高收益市場。

I think that probably is going to reverse given where rates are right now. So that'll be a tailwind behind us in terms of loan growth. I don't know how much of it is tariffs in terms of the line draws. I think it's just general working capital build. People are running their businesses really tightly. So I don't think we've seen the tariff impact yet. And that could be a tailwind also.

我認為，考慮到目前的利率水平，這種情況可能會逆轉。因此，就貸款成長而言，這將成為我們的順風。我不知道其中有多少是線路繪製方面的關稅。我認為這只是一般營運資金的累積。人們經營生意非常嚴格。所以我認為我們還沒有看到關稅的影響。這也可能是一種順風。

And then, we'll have to see on the capital call lines -- that's a pretty big part of our balance sheet, not huge, but it's about a $10 billion exposure overall of which about half is drawn, and that's running at relatively low utilization. So to the extent we get some of the deal activity kicking in, particularly in the second half, that should grow nicely.

然後，我們必須看看資本調用額度——這是我們資產負債表中相當大的一部分，雖然不是很大，但總體風險敞口約為 100 億美元，其中約有一半已被提取，而且利用率相對較低。因此，只要我們的一些交易活動開始發揮作用，特別是在下半年，交易量就會良好成長。

It's Brendan. On the consumer side, if you put aside our non-core rundown, which, as John pointed out, was down about 1 billion linked quarter and look at the underlying business that we're still originating, we're seeing decent growth, 1% up year over year, as John pointed out, heavily led by residential and secured the portfolios. 75% secured. Keep in mind on the consumer side with incredibly high credit straps with high FICOs and relatively low LTVs.

我是布倫丹。在消費者方面，如果你拋開我們的非核心業務（正如約翰指出的那樣，該業務環比下降了約 10 億美元），看看我們仍在開展的基礎業務，我們就會發現，我們正看到不錯的增長，同比增長 1%，正如約翰指出的那樣，這主要得益於住宅和擔保投資組合。 75% 已擔保。請記住，消費者的信用狀況極高，FICO 很高，而 LTV 相對較低。

HELOC, we're actually up 9% year over year and believe we're right at the top of the league tables on net growth versus peers. And that's through a bunch of innovative investments we've made and analytics and customer experience that has driven a little distinct advantage for us. We will continue to take advantage of that given the high-quality nature of the customer and expect that growth level to persist throughout the year.

HELOC，我們實際上同比增長了 9%，並相信我們在淨增長率方面與同行相比處於領先地位。這是透過我們所做的一系列創新投資以及分析和客戶體驗為我們帶來的獨特優勢而實現的。鑑於客戶的高品質特性，我們將繼續利用這一優勢，並預計這一增長水平將在全年持續下去。

And mortgage, even though we have high rates, the portfolio growth is actually decent, up 3% year over year, again, high-quality customers, pre-pay speeds really low on the back book given the lack of a refinance activity. So we're seeing that positive growth.

至於抵押貸款，儘管利率很高，但投資組合的成長實際上還不錯，同比增長 3%，同樣，由於缺乏再融資活動，高品質客戶的預付款速度確實很低。所以我們看到了積極的成長。

The other portfolios, student and credit card, have been flattish, student given higher rates and credit card obviously by design. As we look to launch some new products here mid-year, we expect that to see some higher returning growth, assuming the economy plays in our favor in the second half of the year. So we feel pretty good that underlying loan demand is high for the second half of the year.

其他投資組合，學生卡和信用卡，一直持平，學生卡的利率較高，信用卡顯然是設計好的。由於我們計劃在年中推出一些新產品，我們預計會看到更高的回報成長，前提是下半年經濟狀況對我們有利。因此，我們認為下半年的潛在貸款需求很高。

And the private bank, we are -- as John pointed out, we grew about $500 million linked quarter. What we're seeing there is still strong demand from that customer base. As the consumer part of that portfolio builds, the mix has shifted modestly to consumer. So that's now 30% of the book, where it was in the low-20s about a year ago. That's a good sign.

正如約翰指出的那樣，我們的私人銀行業務本季增長了約 5 億美元。我們看到該客戶群的需求仍然強勁。隨著投資組合中消費者部分的建立，產品組合已適度轉移到消費者。現在這個數字已經佔了書的 30%，而大約一年前這個數字還只有 20% 出頭。這是個好兆頭。

We expect slow, steady continued progression and balancing out the book, and demand seems to have picked up. Our mortgage originations in the private bank are about double what they were same time this year despite a similar rate environment. So activity is strong, and we expect growth rates to accelerate in the back half of the year for the private bank.

我們預計該書將繼續緩慢、穩定地發展並達到平衡，而且需求似乎已經回升。儘管利率環境相似，但我們私人銀行的抵押貸款發放量仍比今年同期增加了一倍左右。因此活動很強勁，我們預期私人銀行的成長率將在下半年加速。

Great. Thank you for all that color. I appreciate it. And just quickly on my second question is just around capital. I know you're sitting here around 10.6% CET1, and you cited expectation for around $200 million to buybacks, similar to this quarter or to last quarter. But also, I know you mentioned -- I think Bruce, you mentioned this and, John, you mentioned it as well that you know if you did see weaker loan growth and weaker macro, you could see higher buybacks.

偉大的。謝謝你帶來的所有色彩。我很感激。我的第二個問題是關於資本的。我知道您的 CET1 比率約為 10.6%，並且您預計回購金額約為 2 億美元，與本季或上一季持平。但同時，我知道你提到過——我想布魯斯，你提到了這一點，約翰，你也提到了這一點，你知道，如果你確實看到貸款增長放緩和宏觀經濟疲軟，你可能會看到更高的回購。

Can you just maybe help frame that? If we do see weaker loan growth and a weaker economy, would you conversely maybe be more cautious and, therefore, maybe be a husband more capital versus step up buybacks? Can you just talk about how you view that trade off? Thanks.

您能幫忙構思一下嗎？如果我們確實看到貸款成長放緩和經濟疲軟，您是否會相反地更加謹慎，從而投入更多資本而不是加大回購力度？您能談談您如何看待這種權衡嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. I'm going to start there. We're committed to that range that we articulated at 10.50% to 10.75%. If there's less RWA, then we would feel opportunistically, a willingness to step up on the buyback side of things.

是的。我將從那裡開始。我們致力於實現我們確定的 10.50% 至 10.75% 的範圍。如果風險加權資產較少，那麼我們就會抓住機會，願意加強回購力道。

And the reason for that is a couple fold. I think the starting point on capital is very strong, both before and after AOCI. So you look at our AOCI haircut, we're still north of 9%, which is quite a good number.

其原因有多種。我認為，無論是 AOCI 之前還是之後，資本的起點都非常強大。因此，您看看我們的 AOCI 折扣，我們仍然在 9% 以上，這是一個相當不錯的數字。

We would also have to look at what the uncertainty would hold. And if you look at our reserve position that we've already set aside, we actually have a recessionary scenario already contemplated in our provision and loan loss reserve situation. So from that standpoint, I think that we could see a number of scenarios throughout 2025 that would be consistent with continuing to be able to upsize buybacks in the face of lower loan growth.

我們還必須看看不確定性會帶來什麼。如果你看看我們已經預留的儲備金狀況，你會發現，我們的撥備和貸款損失準備金狀況實際上已經考慮到了經濟衰退的情況。因此，從這個角度來看，我認為我們可以看到 2025 年出現的多種情景，這些情景與在貸款成長放緩的情況下繼續擴大回購的能力是一致的。

Yeah. And what I would add to that is if you go back to 2024, we also had a pick-up in growth that would build over the course of the year when that didn't happen. We basically used the freed up capital to buy back our shares, and we thought our shares were very attractive.

是的。我想補充的是，如果回顧 2024 年，我們也經歷了經濟成長的回升，而且這種成長會在全年逐漸增強，但這種情況並沒有發生。我們基本上利用釋放的資本來回購我們的股票，我們認為我們的股票非常有吸引力。

And I'd say, given kind of the crack in bank stock prices since the macro uncertainty and the rollout of the tariffs, we still feel that the stock is cheap relative to inherent value. And so, it presents a real opportunity to offset any impact that would hit in the P&L from slower loan growth if that happened through buying back our stock and buying it back at very attractive pricing.

我想說，考慮到宏觀不確定性和關稅推出以來銀行股價的下跌，我們仍然認為該股相對於內在價值來說是便宜的。因此，這為我們提供了一個真正的機會，透過回購股票並以非常有吸引力的價格回購，來抵消貸款成長放緩對損益表造成的任何影響。

And I just hasten to add, as we keep growing our tangible value per share, the earn backs on buying back stock at these levels is well under a year. And so it's pretty attractive. And so we would feel good for all those reasons stated.

我只想趕緊補充一點，隨著我們每股有形價值的不斷成長，以這樣的水平回購股票的收益遠低於一年。所以它非常有吸引力。因此，我們會因為上述所有原因而感到高興。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

肯‧烏斯丁（Ken Usdin），自主研究。

Thanks. Good morning. I wonder if you could talk through that push and pull on the capital markets outlook and the fee guide. So I guess, first of all, the record pipeline, what's your level of confidence in terms of closing those transactions? And secondly, if that that capital markets embedded expectation doesn't pull through how do we understand like the comp ratio offset and the magnitude of flex that you can have to keep PPNR close to in line? Thanks.

謝謝。早安.我想知道您是否可以談談資本市場前景和費用指南之間的推拉關係。所以我想，首先，記錄管道，您對完成這些交易的信心程度如何？其次，如果資本市場內在預期沒有實現，我們如何理解補償比率偏移和維持 PPNR 接近一致的彈性幅度？謝謝。

Yeah. So I'll start and then maybe John or Don can follow on. But again, I think that the exciting aspect of this from our standpoint is that we've, over time, built out really strong capital markets capability and a very broad M&A capability that covers middle market companies through mid-corporate and specializes in industry verticals that we think are going to be active. And so the fact that there's pent-up demand from sponsors to do deals, there's industry sectors that are very active, for example, data centers where we have a really strong group of folks focusing there, I'd say it's heartening to see that we've got record numbers of engagements. Our people are working very actively. And on a probability assessment, none of these deals have dropped, and I think we're just waiting to see some of this uncertainty subside.

是的。所以我先開始，然後也許約翰或唐可以跟進。但我再次認為，從我們的角度來看，令人興奮的是，隨著時間的推移，我們已經建立了真正強大的資本市場能力和非常廣泛的併購能力，涵蓋中型市場公司到中型企業，並專注於我們認為將會活躍的垂直行業。事實上，贊助商對交易有著壓抑的需求，有些行業領域非常活躍，例如資料中心，我們有一群非常強大的人員專注於此，我很高興看到我們獲得了創紀錄數量的合作。我們的人民工作非常積極。從機率評估來看，這些交易都沒有失敗，我認為我們只是在等待這種不確定性消退。

So we still feel optimistic that things will settle down here a little bit and that we should be able to pull that through. What I would say if that is not the case and then things do push out a bit, there's other things to consider. One is that we're broadly diversified. So we've had the ability to -- if one area doesn't fire on all cylinders, like if M&A is soft, then oftentimes our financing, our syndicated loan capability, our debt underwriting will pick up and provide an offset. And then the FXs and interest rate derivatives and commodities, hedging, risk management business also is seeing an uptick in activity and depending on the circumstances that could provide an offset.

因此，我們仍然樂觀地認為，事情會逐漸平息，我們應該能夠度過難關。我想說的是，如果情況並非如此，而事情確實有所進展，那麼就還有其他事情需要考慮。一是我們的經營範圍廣泛多元化。因此，我們有能力——如果某個領域沒有全面發展，例如併購業務不順，那麼我們的融資、銀團貸款能力、債務承銷能力往往就會增強，並提供補償。然後，外匯和利率衍生性商品和商品、對沖、風險管理業務也正在看到活動的增加，並且根據情況可以提供抵銷。

So the first line of defense is kind of diversity within the fees that could help offset any pushout on M&A volumes. And then secondly, there's obviously incentive compensation that would drop if the deals don't deliver.

因此，第一道防線是費用的多樣性，這有助於抵消併購量的任何擠壓。其次，如果交易未能達成，激勵性薪酬顯然會下降。

And then just broader looking at the expense base, we're constantly working on ways to streamline our businesses. And it perfects how we're running the bank to make it more efficiently. So we have a TOP 10 program up and running, but we're certainly not content with that given all of the opportunities we see around new technologies like AI and ways to deploy that just to run the bank better and serve our customers better.

從更廣泛的角度來看，我們一直在努力簡化業務。它使我們的銀行營運方式更加完善，效率更高。因此，我們已經啟動並運行了 TOP 10 計劃，但考慮到我們看到的圍繞人工智慧等新技術的所有機會以及部署這些技術的方法，我們當然不會滿足於此，只是為了更好地運營銀行並更好地服務我們的客戶。

So I'd say that would be the broad playbook, but maybe for color on the revenues, Don, you might want to add anything there.

所以我想說這將是一個廣泛的劇本，但也許為了收入的顏色，唐，你可能想在那裡添加任何東西。

No, I'd just echo a couple things that Bruce just said. One is I'm really encouraged by the diversity of the franchise and the people that we continue to add. Actually, we're continuing to hire really strong talent into some of our industry teams. So that provides an ability to continue to transact in the market.

不，我只是想重複布魯斯剛才說的幾件事。一是我對特許經營的多樣性和我們不斷增加的人員感到非常鼓舞。實際上，我們正​​在繼續為我們的一些行業團隊招募真正優秀的人才。這樣就提供了繼續在市場上交易的能力。

I want to remind people that a significant part of our M&A business, in particular, is mid-sized companies coming out of our core franchise. And they continue to have a really strong desire to sell and transact, and a lot of those go into private equity.

我想提醒大家，我們的併購業務中很大一部分是來自我們核心特許經營權的中型公司。他們仍然有強烈的出售和交易意願，其中許多都進入了私募股權領域。

And the other thing I'd say is that the financing markets are generally pretty attractive. So we can get these things financed, and they're not $10 billion deals. They're $100 million, $200 million, $300 million deals. So they're eminently executable.

我想說的另一件事是，融資市場總體上相當有吸引力。因此我們可以為這些項目籌集資金，而且這些交易的價值不達 100 億美元。這些交易價值分別為 1 億美元、2 億美元和 3 億美元。因此它們極易執行。

One of the things that's been interesting is, you would ask the question of why are these things pushing. Part of it's due to the de-staffing of the FTC and the SEC. So it's just taking longer to get these transactions done.

有趣的事情之一是，你會問為什麼這些事情會推動。部分原因是聯邦貿易委員會和證券交易委員會人員減少。因此完成這些交易需要更長的時間。

And I think the most important thing that Bruce said is, we have not lost one mandate out of the pipeline. So it's not as if these transactions are going away. It's -- they're just taking a little bit longer to execute. So I'm super confident that we're going to be able to get these things across the finish line, whether it's the second quarter or the third quarter, we'll have to see and if some of it will be volatility, but there's very little tariff dependency in any of these underlying deals. So the big picture is we should generate the revenue and hopefully my bonuses aren't going to go down by year end. (laughter) But Bruce will do that to me as he's done in the past if that does happen.

我認為布魯斯所說的最重要的事情是，我們沒有失去任何一項授權。所以這些交易並不意味著會消失。只是他們執行的時間稍微長了一點。因此，我非常有信心我們能夠完成這些事情，無論是第二季度還是第三季度，我們都必須看看其中是否會出現波動，但這些基礎交易對關稅的依賴程度都很小。所以整體來說我們應該創造收入，並且希望我的獎金到年底不會減少。（笑聲）但是如果真的發生了，布魯斯就會像過去一樣對我這樣做。

John, anything to add?

約翰，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I would just highlight the diversity point that you made. And it just -- on the expense side, we would -- in an environment like that, you get the direct offset that you mentioned on incentives. And then you take a harder look at some discretionary stuff that we also touched on before. And then just more broadly, just feeling like the net interest income story is just a number of great tailwinds that are part of why we feel good about the guide for '25 as well.

不。我只是想強調你提出的多元觀點。就費用方面而言，在這樣的環境下，您會得到您提到的激勵措施的直接補償。然後，您可以更仔細地研究我們之前也提到過的一些可自由支配的東西。然後從更廣泛的角度來看，感覺淨利息收入故事只是一系列巨大的順風，這也是我們對 25 年指南感到滿意的原因之一。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特（Peter Winter），地方檢察官戴維森。

Good morning. I was wondering, just looking at interest rates, which have been extremely volatile, it seems like the forward curve changes daily. But can you talk about what the ideal interest rate environment is for Citizens and yield curve and conversely, what type of rate environment would put the NIM outlook potentially at risk? And are there any plans to reduce some of the asset sensitivity?

早安.我想知道，光是看一下一直極不穩定的利率，遠期曲線似乎每天都在變動。但是，您能否談談對於公民和殖利率曲線來說，理想的利率環境是什麼？相反，什麼樣的利率環境可能會使 NIM 前景面臨風險？是否有任何計劃來降低部分資產敏感性？

Yeah. Good questions there. Out the window, our asset sensitivity is plus or minus 1% to a plus or minus 100 basis point change and a gradual shift in the yield curves up or down over the next 12 months. So we are slightly asset sensitive. Yeah. We're close to neutral based on just how those numbers are playing out.

是的。好問題。從外部來看，我們的資產敏感度為正負 1% 至正負 100 個基點的變化，且殖利率曲線在未來 12 個月內逐漸向上或向下移動。所以我們對資產稍微敏感一點。是的。根據這些數字的呈現情況，我們的看法接近中立。

And I'd say that the -- first and foremost, the net interest margin trajectory is primarily not rate dependent. So you've got the time-based benefits that are really driving a net interest margin both in the near term and over time. So for example, in the first quarter, we had about 5 basis points of time-based benefits. And given the slight asset sensitivity and seasonally lower deposits, that's why we ended up at 3 basis points of net interest margin growth in the first quarter.

我想說的是──首先，淨利差走勢主要不依賴利率。因此，您獲得了基於時間的收益，這些收益實際上在短期和長期內推動了淨利差。例如，在第一季度，我們獲得了大約 5 個基點的基於時間的收益。考慮到資產敏感度較低且季節性存款較低，這就是為什麼我們第一季的淨利差成長率為 3 個基點。

When you look out to the second quarter, again, we're going to get about 5 basis points of time-based benefit and better balance sheet trends. So that's why all of that drops to the bottom line and really you get that -- that momentum continues to build not only through '25 but out into '26 and '27. And we have in our slide deck an illustration of the fact that by the time you get to the fourth quarter of 2027, the cumulative time-based benefit is 35 basis points.

當您展望第二季時，我們將再次獲得約 5 個基點的基於時間的收益和更好的資產負債表趨勢。所以這就是為什麼所有這些都落到底線的原因，你真的明白了——這種勢頭不僅在 25 年持續增強，而且還會持續到 26 年和 27 年。我們的幻燈片中說明了這樣一個事實：到 2027 年第四季度，累積的基於時間的收益將達到 35 個基點。

If you add that to the 2.90% that we that we delivered in the first quarter, we're already at the lower end of the range without having to deal with interest rates. And so then from there, the rest of the story that takes us into our range of 3.25% to 3.50%, you would also look at fixed asset repricing, which really is more about long end rates, and there's a lot of baked-in turnover of the balance sheet given coming out of the lower rate environment that we were in coming -- in the pandemic.

如果將其與我們在第一季實現的 2.90% 相加，那麼我們已經處於區間的低端，而且無需處理利率問題。因此，從那裡開始，剩下的故事將把我們帶入 3.25% 到 3.50% 的範圍，你還會關注固定資產重新定價，這實際上更多地與長期利率有關，並且考慮到我們在疫情期間所處的低利率環境，資產負債表的周轉率已經很高。

So you've got 15 to 20 basis points there. And now we can talk about rates. And so there's -- but we're pretty well hedged from a swaps standpoint in through -- out through the middle of 2027. So yes, we will do a little better if rates are higher. So if rates are -- the terminal rate out the window appears to be around 3.50%, that's a good outcome for us. And that would put us in the middle of our range.

因此，您獲得了 15 到 20 個基點。現在我們可以討論利率了。所以，從掉期交易的角度來看，到 2027 年中期，我們的避險已經相當到位。所以是的，如果利率更高，我們的情況會更好一些。因此，如果利率——終端利率似乎在 3.50% 左右，這對我們來說是一個好結果。這將使我們處於範圍的中間。

But higher rates, terminal rates like 4% would be consistent with the upper end of our range of around 3.50%. But we could tolerate as low as 3% on Fed funds or even a touch lower and still hold the low end of our range at 3.25%.

但更高的利率，例如 4% 這樣的終端利率將與我們 3.50% 左右的利率上限一致。但我們可以容忍聯邦基金利率低至 3% 甚至更低，並且仍將我們的區間低端保持在 3.25%。

So we are basically comfortable with a wide range of scenarios on rates. We feel pretty well-hedged with a slight orientation towards performing a little better, a couple of years out if rates are a little higher. And we think about inflation and [deflationary] scenarios when we think about positioning the balance sheet that way. But the objective of trying to have a lot of non-related tailwinds is something that you need to think about when you think about our recovery on net interest margin.

因此，我們基本上可以接受各種利率情境。我們感覺對沖做得相當好，如果利率稍微高一點，幾年後我們的表現會稍微好一點。當我們考慮以這種方式定位資產負債表時，我們會考慮通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮的情況。但是，當您考慮我們的淨利差復甦時，您需要考慮嘗試獲得大量非相關順風的目標。

That's great. Thanks, John. If I could ask just kind of a follow-up to Ken's question, you talked about the puts and takes with this uncertain environment, but could you just give an update on the positive operating leverage for the full year versus January's forecast of 1.50? Just I realized there's all this uncertainty, but just wondering how you're thinking about it.

那太棒了。謝謝，約翰。如果我可以對肯的問題進行跟進，您談到了這種不確定環境下的利弊，但您能否更新全年的正營業槓桿與 1 月份預測的 1.50 之間的情況？我剛剛意識到存在所有這些不確定性，只是想知道您是如何考慮這個問題的。

Yeah. We think -- we're reaffirming that outlook. We believe that that's very achievable, around the 1.50. And a big driver of that again back to net interest margin, we see net interest margin rising by about -- rising to 3.05% to 3.10% by the end of the year. That implies about a 15-basis-point increase in net interest margin year over year.

是的。我們認為——我們正在重申這一觀點。我們相信這個目標非常容易實現，大約在 1.50 左右。而這其中一個重要的驅動因素又回到了淨利差，我們預計淨利差到年底將上升約 3.05% 至 3.10%。這意味著淨利差較去年增加約15個基點。

That's pretty powerful on the NII line. And, therefore, that 3 %to 5% NII is a huge driver of our positive operating leverage, and we feel good about that. And we talked earlier about the diversity on the capital markets and fee line broadly and how our pipelines are consistent with being able to deliver the guide with some levers to pull if certain scenarios play out.

這對於 NII 線路來說非常強大。因此，3%到5%的NII是我們積極經營槓桿的巨大推動力，我們對此感到滿意。我們之前廣泛討論了資本市場和收費線的多樣性，以及我們的管道如何能夠在某些情況下透過一些槓桿來提供指南。

I would add to that. In 2024, most banks, including ourselves, were very tight on expenses. And 2025, we're inflating a little bit. So the guide was for roughly 4% expense growth, and that reflects the fact that there's lots of great things for us to invest in as we build out the franchise here. So things like making sure we're adding to the private bank. We're adding private wealth teams. We're opening private bank offices. We're investing in AI and various projects, data analytics capability. There's our payments capability.

我想補充一點。2024年，包括我們自己在內的大多數銀行的開支都非常緊張。到 2025 年，我們的通貨膨脹率將略有上升。因此，指導價格是大約 4% 的費用增長，這反映了我們在建立特許經營權時有很多好東西可以投資。因此，我們要確保向私人銀行增加資金。我們正在增加私人財富團隊。我們正在開設私人銀行辦事處。我們正在投資人工智慧和各種項目以及數據分析能力。這就是我們的支付能力。

So there's things that we want to keep investing in to position us for that medium-term growth outlook that, in a tougher environment, we can throttle some of those things a little bit. But our preference is to not do that, to keep investing and keep building. So just kind of putting that in context, there are some levers to pull, preferences to keep going, make those investments for the future, but we can pull back a little bit if need be.

因此，我們希望繼續投資於一些領域，以便為中期成長前景做好準備，而在更艱難的環境下，我們可以稍微抑制其中的一些領域。但我們不願意這麼做，而是繼續投資、繼續建造。所以，從上下文來看，有一些槓桿可以拉動，有一些偏好可以繼續，為未來進行投資，但如果需要的話，我們可以稍微退後一點。

The other structural benefit that we do have as well on the private bank, keep in mind that the majority of that cost base was compensation guarantees. And so as the team is productive, and we have confidence in hitting our revenue outlook, that revenue is gobbling up existing expenses and compensation, not necessarily adding to it. So it's --

我們在私人銀行中也擁有的另一個結構性好處是，請記住，該成本基礎的大部分是補償擔保。因此，由於團隊富有成效，並且我們有信心實現我們的收入預期，所以收入正在吞噬現有的支出和薪酬，而不一定會增加。所以--

We're adding operating leverage.

我們正在增加營運槓桿。

We're adding operating leverage right there naturally versus last year, which we have a lot of confidence to deliver the revenue outlooks. That should be a structural advantage for us too.

與去年相比，我們自然增加了營運槓桿，我們對實現收入前景充滿信心。這對我們來說也應該是結構性優勢。

Great point, Brendan.

說得好，布倫丹。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Hi. Good morning. You have -- thank you. You've alluded to this in how you've responded to all the questions, particularly the PPNR one. But as you know, the net interest income outlook is quite important. And as I pull up the slide from last quarter, it's set up 3% to 5%.

你好。早安.你已經——謝謝你。您在回答所有問題（尤其是 PPNR 問題）時都提到了這一點。但正如您所知，淨利息收入前景非常重要。當我拉出上一季的幻燈片時，它被設定為 3% 到 5%。

So if I think about affirming the exit NIM on slide 21, and then the balance sheet seems to be fairly in line at least average earning assets were in line this quarter, unless we think that the balance sheet will shrink it seems like that up, 3% to 5%, it is still broadly in line, right, in terms of what you're affirming? So I just wanted to confirm that in terms of the full-year look.

因此，如果我考慮確認第 21 張投影片上的退出 NIM，那麼資產負債表似乎相當符合預期，至少本季度的平均生息資產是符合預期的，除非我們認為資產負債表會縮水，但看起來會縮水 3% 到 5%，就您所確認的而言，它仍然大致符合預期，對嗎？所以我只是想從全年的角度確認這一點。

Yeah. You've got that right, Erika. It's John. That 3% to 5% deal is pretty good. If you just think about NIM alone, that would take us to the upper end of that range. But what we indicated in the guide was that -- at least back in January -- that we might have interest earning assets down about 1%, which is what put us into the middle of the range.

是的。你說得對，艾莉卡。是約翰。3% 到 5% 的交易相當不錯。如果只考慮 NIM，我們就會到達該範圍的上限。但我們在指南中指出——至少在一月——我們的生息資產可能會下降約 1%，這使我們處於中間範圍。

There's some flexibility there. When you think about relative value in the securities portfolio and what we're seeing in deposit flows, which are actually coming in a little better than we expected, there's another lever there with respect to interest-earning assets in the securities book that we'll be monitoring throughout the year.

這裡有一定的彈性。當您考慮證券投資組合中的相對價值以及我們所看到的存款流量時（存款流量實際上比我們預期的要好一些），證券帳簿中的生息資產還有另一個槓桿，我們將全年對其進行監控。

But net interest margin trends exactly as expected, feeling very good about that with some levers to pull even in the securities portfolio and on interest-earning assets, if relative value looks attractive and deposit flows continue the way they've been going. So that's the way that we think about that 3% to 5%.

但淨利差趨勢與預期完全一致，如果相對價值看起來具有吸引力並且存款流繼續保持目前的趨勢，那麼即使在證券投資組合和生息資產中也有一些槓桿可以拉動，對此感覺非常好。這就是我們對 3% 到 5% 的看法。

Thank you. And switching topics on the reserve. So this is a two-part question. Number one, just a broad question here. What unemployment rate is your reserve sort of looking forward to?

謝謝。並在儲備中轉換話題。所以這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。首先，這只是一個很廣泛的問題。您的儲備期待什麼樣的失業率？

And second, John, could you talk through the dynamics that's perhaps unique to citizens about the non-core runoff? So as we think about perhaps the baseline case of unemployment potentially getting worse or the company waiting the downside case more, what is sort of the offset of the $1.9 billion student loan sale and the runoff portfolio?

第二，約翰，您能否談談非核心選舉中對公民來說可能獨有的動態？因此，當我們考慮失業率可能進一步惡化的基準情況或公司更多地等待下行情況時，19 億美元的學生貸款出售和流失投資組合的抵消作用是什麼？

And obviously, the commercial real estate portfolio has been -- you've been resolving parts of that for some time now. So walk us through those two dynamics as we think about how to think about the provision from here as we think about perhaps a more uncertain economic backdrop, but also specific optimization of your loan mix?

顯然，商業房地產投資組合已經——你們已經解決了部分問題一段時間了。那麼，當我們思考如何從這裡考慮規定時，請向我們介紹這兩個動態，因為我們考慮的可能是更加不確定的經濟背景，同時也考慮您的貸款組合的具體優化？

Yeah. I'll hit both of those, and then the others may chime in here. We have a number of scenarios that get applied to different parts of the portfolio. Our baseline scenario has an unemployment rate of 5.1% that covers a large portion of our book primarily in C&I and in retail. But when you get into the CRE portfolio -- and also that 5.1% is paired with a decline in GDP that would imply a mild recession. So a majority of the book has a mild recession associated with it.

是的。我會談到這兩個問題，然後其他人可能會加入。我們有許多適用於投資組合不同部分的場景。我們的基準情境是失業率為 5.1%，涵蓋了我們帳簿上的很大一部分，主要是在商業和工業以及零售業。但當你進入 CRE 投資組合時——5.1% 的成長率伴隨著 GDP 的下降，這意味著溫和的經濟衰退。因此，本書的大部分內容都與輕微的衰退有關。

But when you think about the CRE book overall, we have a combination of a moderate to severe recession assumption applied to CRE. And so the unemployment assumption there is higher than 5.1%. So on a weighted average basis -- but you'd end up with an unemployment rate that's above 5.1%. I mean just as an example, our general office portfolio has a severe recessionary area with an unemployment rate of 9.3% and a GDP decline of 4.4%. So just giving you a sense that generally, it's something higher than 5.1%.

但當你從整體考慮 CRE 帳簿時，我們會將中度到重度衰退的假設應用於 CRE。因此那裡的失業率假設高於5.1%。因此，以加權平均數計算，最終失業率將高於 5.1%。舉個例子，我們的一般辦公室投資組合處於嚴重的衰退地區，失業率為 9.3%，GDP 下降 4.4%。所以給你一個感覺，一般來說，它會高於 5.1%。

And that's why -- I think what we're saying is that a lot of the uncertainty and concern about recession for 2025, we feel like it's mostly baked into our allowance. We'll be monitoring it, and we're keeping an eye on it, and we're watching charge-off trends coming down in line with our expectations. So that all feels very good on the credit side.

這就是為什麼——我認為我們所說的是，我們覺得對 2025 年經濟衰退的許多不確定性和擔憂基本上都已計入我們的預算中。我們將對其進行監控，密切關注，並觀察沖銷趨勢是否符合我們的預期。因此從信用方面來看一切都非常好。

Yeah, I would -- John, you might have the number on the top of your head. But Erika, we had -- we're about 1.61 in terms of the allowance to loans, kind of the day one CECL was [1.32].

是的，我會的──約翰，你可能已經記得這個數字了。但是 Erika，我們的貸款撥備比率大約是 1.61，就像 CECL 第一天一樣[1.32]

On adjusted basis (multiple speakers)

按調整後基礎（多位發言者）

If you adjust it down first for the investors deal and then for the actions we're taking in non-core, what is that?

如果您先針對投資者交易進行下調，然後再針對我們在非核心領域採取的行動進行下調，結果會如何？

1.25 to 1.30.

1.25 到 1.30。

1.25-ish, in that ballpark. So anyway, we feel that over time, we've continued to improve the focus on kind of where we want to land. We want to land to deep relationships. In commercial, we've been moving more upmarket so that 80% of the C&I portfolio is now investment grade equivalent. And in the retail book, 95% of the book is super prime and high prime. 78% of the book is retail -- is secured. And homeowners are the ones that we're lending on an unsecured basis, two-thirds of the borrowers are homeowners, which tend to have a better credit profile.

約 1.25 左右。所以無論如何，我們覺得隨著時間的推移，我們會繼續提高對我們想要實現的目標的關注。我們希望建立深厚的關係。在商業領域，我們一直在向高端市場邁進，目前 80% 的商業和工業投資組合都達到了投資等級。在零售書籍中，95％的書籍都是超級優質書籍和高級優質書籍。該書 78% 為零售版——有擔保。我們以無擔保方式向房主提供貸款，三分之二的借款人都是房主，他們往往有更好的信用狀況。

So we have a bunch of those stats back on pages 24, 25, and 26. The CRE portfolio -- we've taken a lot of the pain there already. So the pig's been going through the python, so to speak. So we feel that we're well reserved for different scenarios that could ensue over the course of the year.

因此，我們在第 24、25 和 26 頁上看到了大量統計數據。在 CRE 投資組合方面，我們已經承受了很多痛苦。可以這麼說，豬一直在經歷蟒蛇的攻擊。因此，我們認為我們已經為今年可能出現的各種情況做好了充分的準備。

Yeah. And to the other point -- the question you had, Erika, regarding non-core rundown, I think you can kind of pair in some respects -- certainly, the balance sheet is fungible. But you can sort of think about non-core and private bank in some respects together, because we're taking a lot of that liquidity and capital and -- down in the non-core space, but we're growing in private bank and in commercial. So on the private bank, we have a year-end target on the loan side that is similar to the rundown in non-core that's being accelerated in '25.

是的。至於另一點——艾莉卡，你提出的問題是關於非核心資產負債表，我認為你可以在某些方面進行配對——當然，資產負債表是可替代的。但你可以從某些方面將非核心銀行和私人銀行放在一起考慮，因為我們在非核心領域投入了大量的流動性和資本，但我們在私人銀行和商業領域卻在成長。因此，在私人銀行方面，我們在貸款方面的年底目標與 25 年加速的非核心貸款減少目標類似。

So what you're seeing is pulling back on a lower customer value assets in the non-core space, growing high customer attractive RWA in private bank and in commercial and in core retail. So the engine here is humming along really well and probably a little faster than we expected given our opportunistic transaction.

因此，您會看到非核心領域中較低客戶價值資產的減少，以及私人銀行、商業銀行和核心零售領域中對客戶有吸引力的 RWA 的成長。因此，這裡的引擎運作得非常好，而且考慮到我們的機會交易，可能比我們預期的要快一點。

When we set up non-core, that was roughly broad numbers, $10 billion running down in the consumer runoff portfolio and $10 billion running up in the private bank. And by the way, the credit quality in the private bank, I mean the group that came over from First Republic had virtually no credit losses. And so we've had no credit losses in that book.

當我們設立非核心資產時，那是一個大致的數字，100億美元流入消費者流失投資組合，100億美元流入私人銀行。順便說一下，私人銀行的信用質量，我的意思是從第一共和銀行過來的集團幾乎沒有信用損失。因此，我們在這本書中沒有信用損失。

So you can't say that will always be the case, but it's very, very high credit quality. So that alone is going to average down the net charge-off ratio through the cycle to something in the low- to mid-30s from something that had been kind of higher-30s to low-40s.

所以你不能說情況總是如此，但它的信用品質非常非常高。因此，僅此一項就會使整個週期的淨沖銷率平均從先前的 30% 到 40% 左右下降到 30% 左右。

So Brendan, do you want to add anything?

那麼布倫丹，你想補充什麼嗎？

Just a couple of quick stats maybe just to build on your point. On private banking, we have zero customers that are in delinquency or criticized right now. So to John's point, we're replacing the non-core rundown with that quality of asset.

只需提供幾個簡單的統計數據即可闡明您的觀點。在私人銀行業務方面，我們目前沒有拖欠貸款或受到批評的客戶。所以正如約翰所說，我們正在用優質資產取代非核心資產。

The other thing to make note of on non-core, which is seasoned now and then run down with no new originations coming through with auto, as the portfolio gets more seasoned, you have the dynamic of -- you drive the car up the lot and immediately reprices down and your upside down a little bit on LTV until paydowns happen. The portfolio is a couple of years seasoned now. So we feel pretty good that we've got our arms around lost content. It shouldn't be hypersensitive to unemployment unless there's a really significant event in the market. So that should be stable, and we feel good about the quality there.

另一件需要注意的事情是非核心產品，它有時會變得成熟，然後因為沒有新的汽車貸款而減少，隨著投資組合變得更加成熟，你就會有這樣的動態——你把車開到停車場，然後立即重新定價，你的 LTV 會稍微顛倒，直到還款發生。該投資組合現已有幾年的歷史了。因此，我們很高興能夠挽救失去的內容。除非市場發生真正重大事件，否則它不應該對失業過度敏感。所以這應該是穩定的，我們對那裡的品質感到滿意。

And just on the retail book to everybody's point, 79% of it on the core side is residential secured. On the home equity book, 99% is below 80% CLTV; on the mortgage book, 51% CLTV. So there's very, very little loss content there unless there's a significant housing market correction, which, obviously, we're not seeing high chance of that.

就零售書籍而言，對大家來說，核心方面 79% 是住宅擔保。在房屋淨值帳簿上，99% 的 CLTV 低於 80%；在抵押貸款帳簿上，51% CLTV。因此，除非房地產市場大幅調整，否則損失非常小，但顯然，我們認為出現這種情況的可能性不大。

And then when you unpack the unsecured book, while over time, we'd like to have more exposure to credit card right now, we're undersized on credit card. And that's a good thing if there's an unemployment spike. And on the student book, 98% co-signed by the parent on in school and 40% of our student loan refinancing book is with folks with advanced degrees, which are less sensitive to spikes in unemployment. So when you net all that together, I feel like on a relative basis, we should be in a very strong spot if there's a little bit of unemployment.

然後，當您打開無擔保帳簿時，雖然隨著時間的推移，我們希望現在更多地接觸信用卡，但我們在信用卡上的規模卻不足。如果失業率飆升，這是一件好事。在學生貸款帳簿上，98% 是由在校家長共同簽署的，而我們學生貸款再融資帳簿的 40% 是由擁有高學歷的人簽署的，他們對失業率飆升不太敏感。因此，當你把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我覺得從相對基礎來看，如果有一點失業，我們應該處於非常有利的地位。

Very thorough. Thank you.

非常徹底。謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Good morning. A couple of follow-ups on feedback new categories. The service charges were quite strong year over year. And you mentioned cash management, which I think is pretty straightforward and then also overdraft. Just elaborate on the overdraft. Is it increased frequency? And why do you think that is? Were there some pricing changes? Or what drove that component?

早安.關於回饋新類別的幾個後續問題。服務費較去年同期上漲相當高。您提到了現金管理，我認為這很簡單，然後還有透支。只需詳細說明透支情況即可。頻率增加了嗎？您認為這是為什麼呢？價格有變動嗎？或者是什麼驅動了該組件？

Most of the service charge numbers actually in cash management and business banking has seen really strong growth with some technology investments that we've made in the consumer business to drive stickier, engaged customers. By the way, that's also showing up in our low-cost deposit trends. So the increases that we're seeing are largely driven by healthy fee creation versus punitive, which we are very, very pleased with.

實際上，現金管理和商業銀行業務中的大多數服務費用都出現了強勁增長，這得益於我們在消費者業務中進行的一些技術投資，以吸引更具粘性和參與度的客戶。順便說一句，這也反映在我們的低成本存款趨勢中。因此，我們看到的費用增長主要是由健康的費用創造而不是懲罰性的費用推動的，我們對此非常非常滿意。

Our overdraft line has obviously been on a downward slide for a decade, and it's now relatively stable. We've not made any pricing changes, and while there's -- the mass market population is generally back to paycheck to paycheck, they are, in fact, pretty stable.

我們的透支額度十年來明顯呈下降趨勢，現在相對穩定。我們沒有做出任何價格調整，儘管大眾市場人口普遍回到了月光族的生活水平，但實際上，他們的生活水平相當穩定。

So we're not seeing any behavior in that base -- spending are still strong, but stable. We're not seeing anything in that base that would suggest a breakout of economic stress yet, which, obviously, would be tied to an increase in overdraft fees too.

因此，我們沒有看到該基礎上的任何行為——支出仍然強勁，但穩定。我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明經濟壓力已經爆發，顯然，這也與透支費用的增加有關。

So we feel like that's going to be kind of range bound. Hopefully, the growth that we see will be in the positive fee creation through customer advice and services that we provide largely in cash management and overdraft is in a range.

因此我們感覺這將是一個區間波動。希望我們看到的成長將是透過我們主要在現金管理和透支範圍內提供的客戶建議和服務所產生的積極費用。

Obviously, I'm sure you all saw the court case that is out there on overdraft, and then the House and the Senate both signed off on eliminating the rule from the CFPB. So we also think the risk that potentially existed in the back half of the year about that may be coming down is de minimis at this point, headed to the President's desk for signature. So anyway, overdraft is stable, not growing, not really decreasing in any material way.

顯然，我相信大家都看到了有關透支的訴訟案件，然後眾議院和參議院都簽署了取消消費者金融保護局 (CFPB) 規則的決議。因此，我們也認為，今年下半年可能的風險目前已經降到了最低，並已提交給總統簽署。所以無論如何，透支是穩定的，不會成長，也不會以任何實質的方式減少。

Okay. That's helpful. And then in credit card, they were down, obviously, those 4Q on seasonal trends but also down a little bit year over year. I know we're trying to grow it. Is that just the cost of rewards and upfront sign-ons? Or what's driving that drop on a year-over-year basis. Thanks.

好的。這很有幫助。然後在信用卡方面，它們明顯下降，第四季度的季節性趨勢是下降的，但同比也略有下降。我知道我們正在努力發展它。這僅僅是獎勵和預付簽約的費用嗎？或者是什麼原因導致了同比下降？謝謝。

Yeah. We have -- there's been -- a little bit of our prior expansion activity we were doing with credit card, we've paused for a short period of time while we launched new products in May and June. So we're very, very excited about a couple of new products that are coming out late spring into the summer.

是的。我們之前在信用卡業務上進行過一些擴張活動，但在 5 月和 6 月推出新產品時，我們暫停了一段時間。因此，我們對春末夏初即將推出的幾款新產品感到非常興奮。

The customer spending trends have been broadly stable for a bit here. And so we're expecting that to get back into growth mode. As you probably remember, going back 18 months, some of the growth in credit card and debit card fees were structural, related to the Mastercard arrangement that we did that really drove some net positive fee growth to the bottom line as we generate more spending activity and grow the net portfolio in cards. In the back half of the year, we expect that line to continue to modestly grow.

目前，顧客的消費趨勢整體保持穩定。因此我們預計它將恢復成長模式。您可能還記得，回顧 18 個月前，信用卡和金融卡費用的一些增長是結構性的，與我們所做的萬事達卡安排有關，隨著我們產生更多的消費活動並增加信用卡的淨投資組合，這確實推動了一些淨正費用增長。我們預計今年下半年該系列產品將持續小幅成長。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Hi, Bruce. Hi, John. Guys, can you share with us, as a follow-up to your comments on the non-core loan portfolio and in view of the sale of the non-core student loans, can you give us the pros and cons of selling the entire portfolio that you outlined on slide 16?

你好，布魯斯。你好，約翰。夥計們，您能否與我們分享一下，作為對非核心貸款組合的評論的後續，並考慮到非核心學生貸款的出售，您能否告訴我們出售您在第 16 張幻燈片中概述的整個組合的利弊？

Yeah. I'll take that. John, you can chime in. But I think there's relatively high predictability in terms of the runoff of auto, which is basically what's left. And should we want to accelerate that sale, there's going to be a liquidity cost that has to be paid.

是的。我會接受的。約翰，你可以插嘴。但我認為，就汽車產量而言，可預測性相對較高，這基本上就是剩下的產量。如果我們想加速銷售，就必須支付流動性成本。

So our view is, since this is short-duration paper, it runs off predictably. It runs off fast. The duration of the paper is roughly two years that we're better off preserving the capital and not incurring that liquidity cost, if you will. So --

因此，我們的觀點是，由於這是一份短期票據，因此其期限是可以預見的。它跑得很快。票據的期限大約是兩年，如果你願意的話，我們最好保留資本，而不承擔流動性成本。所以--

I agree. And so we've got very strong capital, so there's no need to accelerate it beyond the accelerated rundown. If you look in the fourth quarter of '25, by the end of this year, the entire book is going to be down to $2.6 billion. $1.5 million of that is -- or a little more than $1.5 billion, about $1.7 billion or so is sitting in an auto-collateralized structure anyway, and therefore, wouldn't be able to be sold. So that's sort of ring-fenced and just runs down on its own.

我同意。因此，我們擁有非常雄厚的資本，因此沒有必要在加速削減之外再加速。如果你看一下 25 年第四季度，到今年年底，整個帳面價值將下降到 26 億美元。其中 150 萬美元——或略高於 15 億美元，大約 17 億美元處於自動抵押結構中，因此無法出售。因此，這是一種受到嚴格保護並自行運行的方式。

So you're basically under $1 billion by the end of the year from the round trip from the beginning of this journey in terms of running down non-core. And this is going to be kind of in the rearview mirror very soon. And from that standpoint, we think the transaction that we did was the accelerant and --

因此，從開始這趟旅程到年底，非核心支出的往返成本基本上已經低於 10 億美元。而這一切很快就會成為過去。從這個角度來看，我們認為我們所做的交易是催化劑，--

That was a longer lived asset with a bigger tail. So to move that out really helps accelerate the whole rundown.

這是一種壽命更長、尾部更大的資產。因此，將其移出確實有助於加速整個進程。

And who knows? Maybe in the future, there could be a clean-up, but it will be something that really wouldn't have much of an impact given that it's in such a low profile by the end of the year anyway.

誰知道呢？也許在未來，可能會有一次清理，但考慮到今年年底它仍然很低調，這實際上不會產生太大的影響。

Great. Thank you. And then as a follow-up, obviously, your credit, you've got it in the control. And you talked very thoroughly about the office, commercial real estate portfolio and the challenges there. I noticed in the C&I portfolio -- and I know the numbers are not large, and it could be the law of low numbers that loans going non-accrual will push the number up -- but in slide 28, you do give us that breakdown of non-accruals.

偉大的。謝謝。然後作為後續行動，顯然，您的信用已經完全由您控制。您非常詳細地談論了辦公室、商業房地產組合及其面臨的挑戰。我注意到在 C&I 投資組合中 — — 我知道數字並不大，而且可能是低數定律，即非應計貸款會推高數字 — — 但在第 28 張幻燈片中，您確實為我們提供了非應計貸款的細目分類。

Can you give us some color on the C&I portfolio? The uptick again wasn't material in nominal levels, but what are you guys seeing in the C&I, especially in view of your outlook of the uncertainty we're all confronting with this economy?

可以向我們介紹一下 C&I 投資組合嗎？從名目水準來看，這種上漲並不顯著，但你們在 C&I 方面看到了什麼，尤其是考慮到你們對我們目前面臨的經濟不確定性的看法？

Yeah. And maybe just to start off, on 28, that's the allowance is really -- when you see those numbers go up, that's really us being a bit -- a touch more conservative with respect to areas that we're seeing that makes sense to flow additional allowance over --

是的。也許只是從 28 開始，這是真正的津貼 - 當你看到這些數字上升時，這實際上是我們在一些領域採取了更保守的做法，我們認為這些領域應該增加額外的津貼。--

That's just the non-accrual though is -- I think you're talking about the 0.57 going up to the 0.65, Gerard?

但這只是非應計的——我想你說的是 0.57 上升到 0.65，傑拉德？

Correct. But it's small. I understand it's small, but I'm just curious.

正確的。但它很小。我知道它很小，但我只是好奇。

I think that's just the law of kind of small numbers in terms of, if you have one thing move into non-accrual as we work through some issues, that can make modest adjustments from quarter to quarter there. But nothing really to call out, I think.

我認為這只是小數定律，如果在我們解決一些問題時有一件事變成非應計的，那麼每個季度都可以進行適度的調整。但我認為，沒什麼好說的。

Gerard, I'll just jump in. We're seeing no macro deterioration in C&I. I go back to what I've said for a couple of years now is people really tighten their belts during COVID both from a debt standpoint and an efficiency standpoint. And that's going to help them go through any kind of uncertainty that we have. So we see no broad trends of deterioration at all in our C&I book.

傑拉德，我就加入吧。我們沒有看到商業和工業領域的宏觀惡化。我回想一下我幾年前說過的話，無論是從債務角度還是從效率角度來看，人們在 COVID 期間確實勒緊褲腰帶。這將有助於他們克服我們所面臨的任何不確定性。因此，我們在 C&I 書中根本沒有看到任何整體惡化趨勢。

And I would say it's more a question of -- they're in good position, and they've positioned themselves to be resilient and adaptable to the environment. To me, the bigger question is when -- how much offense do they want to play and the macro actually holds them back from further growth in their businesses. And that potentially affects loan demand or deal activity, but I don't really view it as any kind of material credit risk.

我想說，更重要的是──他們處於有利地位，並且已經做好了適應環境的準備。對我來說，更大的問題是他們何時想要發動多大的進攻，而宏觀因素實際上阻礙了他們業務的進一步成長。這可能會影響貸款需求或交易活​​動，但我並不認為這是重大信用風險。

And in fact, when you look at the sectors that we've lend to, we don't have huge exposure to the sectors that are most exposed to tariffs. So in general, we feel really that this is more an issue about how much offense comes out of the customer base as opposed to are we worried about credit deterioration.

事實上，看看我們貸款的產業，你會發現我們對受關稅影響最大的產業的投資並不大。因此，總的來說，我們覺得這更多的是一個關於客戶群冒犯程度的問題，而不是我們是否擔心信用惡化。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Hey, good morning, Just two very quick follow-up questions. John, maybe for you. I'm not sure if I missed -- when we look at your fee income guidance, you talked about the capital markets pipeline. What are we assuming for capital markets just from a fee revenue standpoint for second quarter and for the full year, if you don't mind sharing that?

嘿，早上好，我只想問兩個非常簡短的後續問題。約翰，也許對你來說是這樣。我不確定我是否錯過了——當我們查看您的費用收入指導時，您談到了資本市場管道。如果您不介意分享的話，我們對第二季和全年的費用收入角度對資本市場有何假設？

Yeah. We have -- it's a driver and it's -- I think I'd go back to the diversification points that we said earlier. I think we've got -- in the capital markets, we've got M&A certainly as part of the story, but there's loan syndications, some equity capital markets opportunities. And you heard Bruce, earlier, talk about client hedging that are all contributing to the second quarter as well as the full year.

是的。我們有——這是一個驅動因素——我想我會回到我們之前提到的多樣化點。我認為我們在資本市場上有併購，當然這也是其中的一部分，但也有銀團貸款和一些股權資本市場機會。您剛剛聽到布魯斯談到客戶對沖，這些都對第二季以及全年有所貢獻。

And then we're also focused on the fact that on the consumer side of the house, card and wealth are also expected to be contributing in 2Q and in 2025 as well. But we haven't broken down the details separately from fees in 2Q or 2025.

然後，我們也關注這樣一個事實：在消費者方面，信用卡和財富也預計將在第二季和 2025 年做出貢獻。但我們還沒有將第二季或 2025 年的費用單獨細分。

It's a material driver to the 8% to 10% growth we had for the year in the original year guide and then in the second quarter lift that we have. And I would say the kind of level of the capital markets activity, to me, is why we have a little bit wider range in the second-quarter fee guide. So we still think we'll see a nice bounce off of Q1 levels. But we'll have to wait and see how that plays out.

這是我們最初年度指引中 8% 至 10% 的年度成長以及第二季成長的重要驅動力。我想說，對我來說，資本市場活動的水平就是為什麼我們在第二季的費用指南中設定了更廣泛的範圍。因此，我們仍然認為我們將看到第一季水準的良好反彈。但我們還得拭目以待，看看結果會如何。

But I think the broader point John just made about diversity -- and when one thing is a little soft, we have enough levers that I think we're pretty confident that we'll be able to find offsets at capital markets. It's a bit sluggish.

但我認為約翰剛才提出的關於多元化的更廣泛的觀點是——當一件事有點軟弱時，我們有足夠的槓桿，我認為我們非常有信心在資本市場中找到抵銷措施。有點遲鈍。

Got it. And I guess maybe just a follow-up, on the margin outlook, when you have the margin for the end of the year, end of '26, can you remind us what the Fed funds rate underpinning there is? I appreciate the time sensitivity of what the NIM does. But what's the Fed funds rate? And if we get 100 basis points of Fed funds cut, let's say, between now and year-end, does that create some downside risk to that '25, '26 outlooks or not?

知道了。我想也許只是關於保證金前景的後續問題，當您知道今年年底（26 年底）的保證金時，您能否提醒我們當時的聯邦基金利率基礎是什麼？我很欣賞 NIM 所做工作的時效性。但聯邦基金利率是多少？那麼，如果從現在到年底，聯邦基金利率下調 100 個基點，這是否會對 25 年、26 年的前景造成一些下行風險？

Yeah. I'd say, as I mentioned, we're pretty well hedged. We've got -- when you look out the window, there's -- we said two cuts in January, but out the window, maybe there's three. But that third cut happens late in the fourth quarter, number one.

是的。我想說，正如我所提到的，我們的對沖措施相當完善。我們已經——當你向窗外看時——我們說一月份會削減兩次，但從窗外看，可能有三次。但第三次裁員發生在第四季末，這是第一點。

And number two, we are close to neutral from an asset sensitivity perspective. So that 3.05% to 3.10% feels very good and very comfortable with respect to delivering that range. The terminal rate of about 3.50% getting out into '26 and '27 puts us into the middle of our 3.25% to 3.50% net interest margin range, as you'll see on the slide there in the back where we articulate that outlook.

第二，從資產敏感度角度來看，我們接近中性。因此，3.05% 到 3.10% 的利率範圍感覺非常好，而且非常舒適。26 年和 27 年的終端利率約為 3.50%，這使我們處於 3.25% 至 3.50% 淨息差範圍的中間，正如您在後面幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們在那裡闡述了這一前景。

And so 2026 -- also, just one other thing to add in case there's any follow-ups, the net interest margin growth in '25 is very comfortable, and we feel good about it. It maybe implies about 15 basis points year over year. 2026 is a significant amount of tailwinds associated with some accelerating trends and much of the time-based benefit actually really starts to kick in in '26. And that's something to keep an eye on also.

那麼到 2026 年——另外，還有一件事要補充，以防有任何後續情況，25 年的淨息差增長非常舒適，我們對此感覺良好。這可能意味著同比增長約 15 個基點。 2026 年是與一些加速趨勢相關的顯著順風年，而許多基於時間的益處實際上在 2026 年開始真正發揮作用。這也是值得關注的事。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. Just a couple of quick follow-up questions. One was on loan growth. Can you talk about how much of the loan growth over the past year has come from NBFI loans and how you're thinking about the credit risk of that portfolio?

嗨，早安。只問幾個簡單的後續問題。一是貸款成長。您能否談談過去一年的貸款成長有多少來自 NBFI 貸款，以及您如何看待該投資組合的信用風險？

Yeah. I'll start off and Don may add in here. There is -- we do have exposure like many of our peers do into the NBFI space. It's part of the ecosystem of interacting in the private credit space and the private capital construct that we do a very good job of covering.

是的。我先開始，Don 可能會在這裡補充。確實如此——我們確實像許多同行一樣涉足了 NBFI 領域。它是私人信貸領域和私人資本結構互動生態系統的一部分，我們對此做了很好的覆蓋。

I would say that -- I'd hasten to add that the credit exposure for the places where we play is very low. When you think about the kind of interactions that we do in whether it's business credit intermediaries or in the private equity space, that credit profile has been very low over time.

我想說的是──我還要補充一點，我們所在地方的信貸風險非常低。當你考慮到我們與商業信用中介機構或私募股權領域的互動時，你會發現信貸狀況長期以來一直很低。

Yeah. I agree with that. And the growth hasn't been massive in terms of actually adding exposure. We've seen a little bit of growth due to higher utilization. So you see that coming through in the numbers a little bit. But we very much like the structures that we have in place, both for the private equity complex on the private credit complex.

是的。我同意這一點。但就實際增加曝光度而言，成長並不大。由於利用率提高，我們看到了一點增長。所以您可以從數字上稍微看出這一點。但我們非常喜歡現有的結構，包括私募股權綜合體和私人信貸綜合體。

And they're both kind of investment-grade like in terms of their credit profile. So very low losses, very strong structures, ABS kind of structures, particularly in private credit, and we feel very good about those exposures.

從信用狀況來看，它們都屬於投資等級。因此損失非常低，結構非常強大，ABS 類型的結構，特別是在私人信貸方面，我們對這些風險敞口感覺非常良好。

And the other important thing is back to everything we're doing in the NBFI space, it's about a broad relationship. So we're doing multiple different things with each of the people that we're lending to. So it's not as if we're going out there and building a loan book. We're doing M&A with a lot of these complexes.

另一件重要的事情是回到我們在 NBFI 領域所做的一切，這都與廣泛的關係有關。因此，我們針對每個貸款對象採取了多種不同的措施。所以，我們並不是想要出去建立貸款帳簿。我們正在與許多這樣的綜合體進行併購。

We're actually distributing some of the private credit funds into our private bank and wealth management areas now. So there's a lot of different relationship orientation, and we're very selective in terms of the underlying clients that will actually bank.

我們實際上現在正在將部分私人信貸資金分配到我們的私人銀行和財富管理領域。因此存在著許多不同的關係導向，我們在選擇實際銀行服務的基礎客戶方面非常挑剔。

Yeah. I would just add to other points of color. One is that the definitions for this category are changing a little bit. And so some exposures that might not have been considered NBFI are now getting pushed into that a little bit. So it's hard to do a long period of time, straight apples-to-apples comparisons, but I think once we get through the reclassification process, then you'll, going forward, have more continuity in those forecasts.

是的。我只是想添加其他顏色點。一是這一類別的定義正在發生一些變化。因此，一些原本可能不被視為 NBFI 的風險敞口現在被稍微推入其中。因此，很難進行長期的、直接的同類比較，但我認為，一旦我們完成重新分類過程，那麼你將在未來的預測中擁有更多的連續性。

The other thing is that where we are growing somewhat is in the private bank. And so that's a little bit of a different kind of complementary perspective to some of the bigger funds that Don's folks are covering. So Brendan, I don't know if you want to add that, but we're making capacity there for kind of PE and VC funds, where we know those firms extremely well, and we want to be the bank to the fund complex and the partners of those firms. And so that's really good business. That was always a really good business at First Republic, and we're growing that business here.

另一件事是，我們的私人銀行業務正在取得一定成長。因此，這與唐恩的團隊所涵蓋的一些較大基金相比，是一種略有不同的補充視角。所以布倫丹，我不知道你是否想補充這一點，但我們正在為 PE 和 VC 基金提供能力，我們非常了解這些公司，我們希望成為基金綜合體的銀行和這些公司的合作夥伴。所以這確實是一筆好生意。這對第一共和銀行來說一直是一項非常好的業務，而且我們正在擴大這項業務。

The credit structures, as Don mentioned, we believe, are well structured with incredibly low risk -- one-year subscription lines. So the duration of it, we can -- if there's anything that we see that is worrisome, we can move on pretty quickly. We also, in the private bank, won't do the credit unless we have their operating cash management relationship, and so a very deep relationship with the firm with strong underwriting and then eyes all over cash flows and the whole community that we're banking. So we feel good about the exposure.

正如唐所提到的，我們認為，信貸結構良好，風險極低——一年期認購額度。因此，我們可以——如果我們發現任何令人擔憂的事情，我們可以很快地繼續前進。同樣，在私人銀行中，除非我們與他們的經營現金管理關係，即與擁有強大承保能力的公司建立非常深厚的關係，並且關注現金流和我們所銀行業務的整個社區，否則我們不會提供信貸。因此我們對這次曝光感到滿意。

Very helpful. And then as my follow-up, just on the non-core loan sale in the first quarter, how should we think about the benefit to NIM from that sale. I know the year-end NIM guide is relatively unchanged. So I was wondering if there's some offsets there, if there is a higher probability that you can hit the higher end of that guide?

非常有幫助。然後作為我的後續問題，就第一季的非核心貸款銷售而言，我們應該如何看待該銷售為 NIM 帶來的好處。我知道年末的 NIM 指南相對沒有變化。所以我想知道是否存在一些偏移，是否有更高的機率可以達到該指南的高端？

Yeah. We had anticipated that we would have an opportunity to accelerate in 2025. So that was included in the January guide broadly. So the 3.05% to 3.10% is already incorporated this sale.

是的。我們曾預期 2025 年我們將有機會加速發展。因此，這已廣泛包含在一月份的指南中。因此 3.05% 至 3.10% 已包含此銷售。

So you may recall that on the first-quarter call, I hinted that we were working on acceleration. So we were pretty far down to track that we would get something done. So when we had the guide, we had assumed that.

所以你可能還記得，在第一季的電話會議上，我暗示我們正在加速發展。因此，我們已經非常接近完成目標了。所以當我們有指南時，我們已經假設了這一點。

So it's not that dramatic of a lift to NIM, but we'll pick up basis points here and there. It all adds up and builds our path towards hitting those year-end numbers, those fourth-quarter numbers.

因此，對 NIM 的提升並不是那麼顯著，但我們會不時地提高基點。所有這些加起來，為我們實現年終數字和第四季度數字奠定了基礎。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Okay. All right. Well, I think that brings us to the end of the call. Thanks, again, everyone, for dialing in today. We appreciate your continued interest and support. Have a great day.

好的。好的。好吧，我想我們的通話到此結束。再次感謝大家今天的來電。我們感謝您一直以來的關注與支持。祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes the Citizens Financial Group first-quarter earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

公民金融集團第一季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。