Blackstone Inc (BX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Blackstone Second Quarter 2023 Investor Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Blackstone 2023 年第二季度投資者電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員指示） 現在，我想將會議轉交給股東關係主管 Weston Tucker。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie, and good morning, and welcome to Blackstone's second quarter conference call. Joining today are: Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. And we expect to file our 10-Q report in a few weeks.

謝謝凱蒂，早上好，歡迎參加 Blackstone 第二季度電話會議。今天加入的有： 董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Schwarzman；喬恩·格雷，總裁兼首席運營官；和首席財務官 Michael Chae。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和幻燈片演示，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。我們預計將在幾週內提交 10-Q 報告。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and outside of the firm's control and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. For a discussion of some of the risks that could affect results, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K. We'll also refer to non-GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the Shareholders page of our website.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是不確定的，超出了公司的控制範圍，並且可能與實際結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何責任。有關可能影響結果的一些風險的討論，請參閱 10-K 的風險因素部分。我們還將參考非公認會計準則衡量標準，您可以在我們網站股東頁面的新聞稿中找到對賬信息。

Also, note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without our consent.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成任何 Blackstone 基金的出售要約或購買要約。本音頻廣播是 Blackstone 受版權保護的材料，未經我們同意不得複制。

So on results, we reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $1.2 billion. Distributable earnings were also $1.2 billion or $0.93 per common share. And we declared a dividend of $0.79 per share, which will be paid to holders of record as of July 31.

因此，就業績而言，我們報告的本季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 12 億美元。可分配收益也為 12 億美元，即每股普通股 0.93 美元。我們宣布派發每股 0.79 美元的股息，該股息將支付給截至 7 月 31 日在冊的股東。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Steve.

這樣，我現在將把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thank you, Weston, and good morning. Thank you all for joining the call. Blackstone reached a remarkable milestone in the second quarter. We surpassed $1 trillion of assets under management, the first alternative manager to do so and more than 3 years ahead of the aspirational road map we presented at our Investor Day in 2018.

謝謝你，韋斯頓，早上好。感謝大家加入通話。黑石在第二季度實現了一個非凡的里程碑。我們管理的資產規模超過 1 萬億美元，是首個實現這一目標的另類管理公司，比我們在 2018 年投資者日上提出的宏偉路線圖提前了 3 年多。

This achievement is significant in many ways, including for me personally. I founded Blackstone with my partner, Pete Peterson, in 1985 with $400,000 of start-up capital. We sent out 450 personal announcements of our new venture and published a full-page newspaper ad with the expectation that the phone would start ringing off the hook. It was a humbling experience when no one called, other than a few people wishing us luck. When we started raising our first private equity fund in 1986 with a $1 billion target, we discovered that getting a $5 million or $10 million commitment was a substantial accomplishment. Fortunately, we hung in there, and we were ultimately successful.

這一成就在很多方面都意義重大，包括對我個人而言。 1985 年，我與合夥人 Pete Peterson 共同創立了 Blackstone，擁有 40 萬美元的啟動資金。我們發出了 450 份關於我們新企業的個人公告，並發布了整版報紙廣告，期望電話會開始響個不停。這是一次令人羞愧的經歷，除了幾個人祝我們好運之外，沒有人打來電話。當我們於 1986 年開始以 10 億美元的目標籌集第一隻私募股權基金時，我們發現獲得 500 萬或 1000 萬美元的承諾是一項重大成就。幸運的是，我們堅持了下來，最終取得了成功。

Looking at Blackstone today, I feel an immense sense of pride. We've established an unparalleled global platform of leading business lines, offering over 70 distinct investment strategies. We believe our clients view us as the gold standard in alternative asset management. And this milestone reflects the extraordinary level of trust we've built with them over nearly 4 decades. We've delivered for them in good times and bad, generating $300 billion of aggregate gains with minimal losses. In fact, virtually all of our drawdown funds we've launched in our history have been profitable for our investors.

看著今天的黑石，我感到無比自豪。我們建立了一個無與倫比的全球領先業務平台，提供 70 多種獨特的投資策略。我們相信我們的客戶將我們視為另類資產管理的黃金標準。這一里程碑反映了我們在近 4 年來與他們建立的非凡信任水平。無論順境還是逆境，我們都為他們提供了幫助，以最小的損失創造了 3000 億美元的總收益。事實上，我們歷史上推出的幾乎所有提款基金都為我們的投資者帶來了利潤。

Our performance has helped secure retirees' pensions, fund students educations, pay health care benefits and protect and grow the savings of individual investors. We are tremendously proud of the role we've played in driving these outcomes. Our ability to create excess returns over long periods of time in support of these critically important objectives is what distinguishes us as a firm and powers our growth.

我們的業績有助於確保退休人員的養老金、資助學生教育、支付醫療保健福利以及保護和增加個人投資者的儲蓄。我們對我們在推動這些成果方面所發揮的作用感到非常自豪。我們有能力在長期內創造超額回報以支持這些至關重要的目標，這是我們作為一家公司的獨特之處並為我們的增長提供動力。

This milestone is also reflective of Blackstone's distinctive positioning as the leading innovator in our industry. At our founding, we determined that building a great company required us to be in a continuous innovation mode, which we have institutionalized as a core competency of the firm. Our original strategic plan was to start in corporate advisory and then quickly move into private equity, followed by a succession of other asset management businesses over time.

這一里程碑也反映了 Blackstone 作為行業領先創新者的獨特定位。在我們成立之初，我們就確定打造一家偉大的公司需要我們採用持續創新模式，並將其製度化為公司的核心競爭力。我們最初的戰略計劃是從企業諮詢開始，然後迅速進入私募股權領域，隨著時間的推移，隨後陸續開展其他資產管理業務。

We only entered a new area when we saw the opportunity to generate great risk-adjusted returns for our customers. We identified a remarkable leader and a new area created intellectual capital that benefited the rest of the firm. For example, we entered the hedge fund of funds business in 1990; real estate in 1991 when values had collapsed following the savings and loan crisis; and credit in 1998, which we expanded substantially in 2008, ahead of the generational investment opportunities that arose from the global financial crisis.

當我們看到有機會為客戶帶來巨大的風險調整回報時，我們才進入了一個新領域。我們找到了一位傑出的領導者，並在一個新領域創造了智力資本，使公司的其他部門受益。例如，我們於1990年進入對沖基金中的基金業務； 1991年，儲蓄和貸款危機導致房地產價值暴跌； 1998 年我們擴大了信貸規模，2008 年我們在全球金融危機帶來的代際投資機會之前大幅擴大了信貸規模。

In 2011, we launched a dedicated private wealth business. The following year, we created tactical opportunities. And the year after that, we entered the nascent secondaries market for drawdown funds. In 2017, we launched our infrastructure strategy. In 2018, we started both our insurance solutions management and life sciences businesses. And in 2020, we launched our first growth equity fund. Today, nearly all of these major lines of business are market leaders in their respective asset classes with exceptional long-term performance.

2011年，我們推出專門的私人財富業務。第二年，我們創造了戰術機會。次年，我們進入了新興的提取資金二級市場。 2017年，我們啟動了基礎設施戰略。 2018年，我們啟動了保險解決方案管理和生命科學業務。 2020 年，我們推出了第一隻成長股票基金。如今，幾乎所有這些主要業務領域都是各自資產類別的市場領導者，具有卓越的長期業績。

There are many advantages that come from our unique scale. With our portfolio of over 230 companies, 12,000 real estate assets and 1 of the largest lending businesses in the world, we believe that we have more information than just about anyone competing with us. We specialize in the production and analysis of enormous amounts of data, which we review every week in our Monday morning meetings with each of our major product lines. This process, done over 35 years, helps us identify trends before others and adjust where we invest our clients' capital. This also allows us to maintain a hands-on management style, keeps our professionals fully connected and supports centralized decision-making.

我們獨特的規模帶來了許多優勢。我們擁有超過 230 家公司、12,000 項房地產資產和世界上最大的貸款企業之一的投資組合，我們相信我們比任何與我們競爭的人都擁有更多的信息。我們專注於大量數據的生成和分析，我們每週都會在周一早上與每個主要產品線舉行的會議上審查這些數據。這一過程歷時 35 年，幫助我們先於其他人識別趨勢，並調整我們客戶資本的投資方向。這也使我們能夠保持親力親為的管理風格，使我們的專業人員保持充分聯繫並支持集中決策。

Our focus on data aggregation and analysis also led us to establish our own data science group early as 2015. We started building a team of exceptional data scientists, which today numbers over 50 people. And we are rapidly and significantly expanding our capabilities in artificial intelligence. We've been using AI to help improve operations and our portfolio of companies as well as at Blackstone itself.

我們對數據聚合和分析的關注也促使我們早在 2015 年就建立了自己的數據科學團隊。我們開始建立一支由傑出數據科學家組成的團隊，目前人數超過 50 人。我們正在快速、顯著地擴展我們在人工智能方面的能力。我們一直在使用人工智能來幫助改善運營和我們公司的投資組合以及 Blackstone 本身。

We believe that the new generation of AI has the potential to transform companies and industries. And the timeliness and effectiveness of its implementation will be determinative of who the winners and losers will be. Blackstone, fortunately, is in an enviable position in the alternative asset world with an 8-year head start in this field. And we are committed to further expanding our leadership position there as quickly as possible.

我們相信新一代人工智能有潛力改變公司和行業。而其實施的及時性和有效性將決定誰是贏家、誰是輸家。幸運的是，黑石在另類資產領域處於令人羨慕的地位，在該領域領先 8 年。我們致力於盡快進一步擴大我們在那裡的領導地位。

Our growth, along with our commitment to meritocracy, have also allowed us to attract and retain great talent. Many of the best people in the world want to work here at Blackstone. This year, we had 62,000 unique applicants for 169 first year analyst positions, equating to a selection rate of less than 0.3%. Getting an entry-level job at Blackstone is 12 times harder than getting into Harvard. I doubt I would be able to be hired today, not sure that's a great thing.

我們的成長以及我們對精英管理的承諾也使我們能夠吸引和留住優秀人才。世界上許多最優秀的人才都想在 Blackstone 工作。今年，我們有 62,000 名獨立申請者申請了 169 個第一年分析師職位，相當於選擇率不到 0.3%。在 Blackstone 獲得入門級工作比進入哈佛難 12 倍。我懷疑我今天能否被錄用，不確定這是一件好事。

Our scale has also made the firm even safer. We're an A+ rated manager of third-party capital distributed across hundreds of segregated investment vehicles. We don't depend on deposits for our funding. And the vast majority of our capital is under long-term contracts or perpetual, which we carefully aligned with the duration of our investments. We don't operate with a cross-collateralized balance sheet like depository institutions. We have virtually no net leverage at the parent company compared to U.S. banks with an average of 12x leverage. And we have no insurance liabilities. We've always believed in extreme conservatism in managing our capital structure and the structure of our funds.

我們的規模也使公司更加安全。我們是 A+ 級第三方資本管理公司，分佈於數百種獨立投資工具。我們的資金不依賴存款。我們的絕大多數資本都是長期合同或永久合同，我們仔細調整了投資期限。我們不像存款機構那樣採用交叉抵押資產負債表進行運營。與平均槓桿率為 12 倍的美國銀行相比，我們的母公司幾乎沒有淨槓桿率。我們沒有保險責任。我們始終相信在管理我們的資本結構和基金結構時應採取極端保守的態度。

As the largest manager today, Blackstone has led the adoption of alternatives, which have revolutionized the field of investment management. When we started in 1985, alternatives were basically limited to private equity. And there were only a few public pension funds and insurance companies who invested in the asset class. Endowments, sovereign wealth funds and retail investors, for example, have virtually no participation.

作為當今最大的管理公司，黑石集團引領了另類投資的採用，這徹底改變了投資管理領域。當我們 1985 年開始時，替代方案基本上僅限於私募股權。而且只有少數公共養老基金和保險公司投資於該資產類別。例如，捐贈基金、主權財富基金和散戶投資者實際上沒有參與。

Over the subsequent 4 decades, alternatives have grown to $12 trillion of assets. But this is still small compared to the $225 trillion of liquid stocks and bonds. With a minimal share of total investable assets today, we expect alternatives to expand substantially in the future. I believe that Blackstone, given our unique brand and global reach, is the best-positioned firm in the world to capture future opportunities for growth in the alternatives area.

在接下來的 4 年裡，另類資產已增長至 12 萬億美元。但與 225 萬億美元的流動性股票和債券相比，這仍然很小。目前，在可投資資產總額中所佔份額極小，我們預計另類投資未來將大幅擴張。我相信，鑑於 Blackstone 獨特的品牌和全球影響力，它是世界上最有能力抓住另類投資領域未來增長機會的公司。

The most compelling of these today include private credit and insurance, infrastructure globally, energy transition, life sciences, the development of the alternatives business in Asia and the private wealth channel, where the democratization of alternatives in its early stages. Jon will discuss these areas in more detail.

如今，其中最引人注目的包括私人信貸和保險、全球基礎設施、能源轉型、生命科學、亞洲另類業務的發展以及私人財富渠道，其中另類選擇的民主化仍處於早期階段。喬恩將更詳細地討論這些領域。

Our mission since 1985 is to be the best in the world at what we choose to do. Even this we've grown, we've never strayed from this mission or from the core values that have defined us, including excellence, integrity, meritocracy, teamwork and dedication to serving our customers. When you work at our firm, you must believe in our mission and embody these values. Blackstone is an extraordinary place. Our prospects are accelerating. We never rest on our achievements. And we're always looking ahead, striving to lift the firm to new heights. I strongly believe the best is ahead for Blackstone, investors in our funds and our shareholders.

自 1985 年以來，我們的使命就是在我們選擇做的事情上成為世界上最好的。即使我們已經發展壯大，我們也從未偏離這一使命或定義我們的核心價值觀，包括卓越、誠信、任人唯賢、團隊合作和致力於為客戶服務。當您在我們公司工作時，您必須相信我們的使命並體現這些價值觀。黑石是一個非凡的地方。我們的前景正在加速。我們從不滿足於我們所取得的成就。我們始終展望未來，努力將公司提升到新的高度。我堅信，對於 Blackstone、我們基金的投資者和我們的股東來說，最好的未來就在眼前。

And with that, I turn the ball over to Jon.

說完，我把球交給了喬恩。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. $1 trillion is a mile marker on a much longer journey. And we are early in our expansion into markets of enormous potential. Of course, it all starts with investment performance.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。 1 萬億美元只是更長旅程中的一個里程標記。我們正處於向潛力巨大的市場擴張的早期階段。當然，這一切都始於投資業績。

In our drawdown funds, we've delivered 15% net returns annually in corporate private equity and opportunistic real estate for over 30 years, 15% in secondaries, 12% in tactical opportunities and 10% in credit. In our perpetual strategies, which remain continuously invested, we've generated 14% net returns in infrastructure, 12% for BREIT's largest share class and 9% for our institutional Core+ estate funds. And for our major insurance clients, we've produced over 150 basis points of excess spread over the past 6 quarters compared to investment-grade credit with similar ratings, or said another way, without adding incremental risk.

在我們的提款基金中，30 多年來，我們在企業私募股權和機會性房地產領域每年實現 15% 的淨回報率，在二級市場領域實現 15% 的淨回報率，在戰術機會領域實現 12% 的淨回報率，在信貸領域實現 10% 的淨回報率。在我們持續投資的永續策略中，我們在基礎設施領域創造了 14% 的淨回報，為 BREIT 最大的股票類別創造了 12% 的淨回報，為我們的機構 Core+ 房地產基金創造了 9% 的淨回報。對於我們的主要保險客戶來說，與具有類似評級的投資級信貸相比，我們在過去 6 個季度中產生了超過 150 個基點的超額利差，或者換句話說，沒有增加增量風險。

There are a number of drivers of our outperformance. But as we've grown, picking the right sectors and markets has become more important than ever. Where you invest matters, and we continue to benefit from our thematic emphasis on winning areas like global logistics, digital infrastructure and energy transition. In the second quarter, these sectors were among the largest drivers of appreciation in our funds.

我們表現出色的因素有很多。但隨著我們的成長，選擇正確的行業和市場變得比以往任何時候都更加重要。您的投資地點很重要，我們將繼續受益於我們對全球物流、數字基礎設施和能源轉型等獲勝領域的主題重點。第二季度，這些行業是我們基金升值的最大推動力之一。

It's worth noting, we're also seeing strong signs of inflation flowing across our portfolio, which we view as extremely positive for the rate environment going forward, along with valuations for companies and our real estate holdings in particular. Michael will discuss our portfolio positioning and Q2 returns in more detail.

值得注意的是，我們還看到強烈的通脹跡象貫穿我們的投資組合，我們認為這對未來的利率環境以及公司估值，尤其是我們持有的房地產的估值非常有利。邁克爾將更詳細地討論我們的投資組合定位和第二季度回報。

The strength of our investment performance over decades allows us to raise scale capital even in a very challenging fundraising environment. Total inflows reached $30 billion in the second quarter and $158 billion over the past 12 months, positioning us with record dry powder of nearly $200 billion. The greatest demand today is for private credit solutions. And our corporate credit insurance and real estate debt businesses comprised over 50% of Q2 inflows.

我們幾十年來的投資業績實力使我們即使在非常具有挑戰性的融資環境中也能籌集規模資本。第二季度總流入量達到 300 億美元，過去 12 個月流入量達到 1,580 億美元，使我們的資金流入量達到創紀錄的近 2,000 億美元。如今最大的需求是私人信貸解決方案。我們的企業信用保險和房地產債務業務佔第二季度資金流入的 50% 以上。

In our drawdown fund area, we raised additional capital for our corporate PE flagship, bringing it to approximately $17 billion. And we expect a total size in the low $20s billion range. We also held an accelerated first close of $1.3 billion for our European real estate flagship and expect another close later this month. Overall, we've raised nearly 75% of our $150 billion target and remain on track to substantially achieve it by early 2024.

在我們的提取基金領域，我們為我們的企業私募股權旗艦產品籌集了額外資金，使其達到約 170 億美元。我們預計總規模將在 200 億美元左右。我們還為我們的歐洲房地產旗艦公司加速了 13 億美元的首次交割，預計本月晚些時候再次交割。總體而言，我們已經籌集了 1500 億美元目標的近 75%，並有望在 2024 年初大幅實現這一目標。

Stepping back, Steve highlighted a number of areas with particularly attractive long-term dynamics for our business, starting with credit, where there is a structural shift underway in the market. Traditional financing providers are cautious, while at the same time, both LP demand and borrower need for credit solutions are accelerating. Long-term investors, including insurance companies, and institutional LPs hold large portfolios of liquid investment-grade credit assets typically purchased from banks and intermediaries.

史蒂夫退後一步，強調了對我們業務具有特別有吸引力的長期動力的一些領域，首先是信貸，市場正在發生結構性轉變。傳統融資提供商持謹慎態度，與此同時，有限合夥人的需求和借款人對信貸解決方案的需求都在加速增長。包括保險公司和機構有限合夥人在內的長期投資者持有大量流動性投資級信貸資產組合，這些資產通常是從銀行和中介機構購買的。

With our $362 billion platform in credit and real estate credit, we have leading capabilities to directly and efficiently originate high-quality assets on their behalf. We're also partnering with banks and other originators that are facing greater lending constraints but want to continue to serve their customers in areas like home improvement, auto finance and renewables. We've closed or have in process 5 of these partnerships totaling $6 billion and plan to add more.

憑藉我們 3,620 億美元的信貸和房地產信貸平台，我們擁有領先的能力，可以代表他們直接、高效地創造優質資產。我們還與面臨更大貸款限制但希望繼續為家居裝修、汽車金融和可再生能源等領域的客戶提供服務的銀行和其他發起人合作。我們已經關閉或正在處理其中 5 個合作夥伴關係，總價值達 60 億美元，併計劃增加更多合作夥伴關係。

In the $40 trillion insurance channel, we manage $174 billion today. Inflows from this channel were over $7 billion in the second quarter with more than $4 billion from our largest 4 clients. We expect a strong pace of inflows from them going forward, including from two of our clients who, on a combined basis, are the second-largest sellers of fixed annuities in the U.S., along with a pipeline of additional prospects.

在 40 萬億美元的保險渠道中，我們今天管理著 1,740 億美元。第二季度來自該渠道的資金流入超過 70 億美元，其中來自我們最大的 4 個客戶的資金流入超過 40 億美元。我們預計未來資金將強勁增長，其中包括我們的兩個客戶，他們是美國第二大固定年金銷售商，同時還有一系列其他潛在客戶。

Other areas in our credit business are showing strong momentum as well. Our global direct lending platform is over $100 billion today. And we see attractive expansion opportunities in the U.S., Europe and Asia. BCRED raised $1.8 billion in the second quarter, up nearly 60% from Q1, plus approximately $900 million of monthly subscriptions on July 1. And we expect to complete raising our green energy credit vehicle in a few weeks at over $7 billion.

我們信貸業務的其他領域也表現出強勁的勢頭。如今，我們的全球直接借貸平台規模已超過 1000 億美元。我們在美國、歐洲和亞洲看到了有吸引力的擴張機會。 BCRED 第二季度籌集了 18 億美元，比第一季度增長近 60%，加上 7 月 1 日的每月訂閱量約 9 億美元。我們預計將在幾週內完成綠色能源信貸工具的融資，融資金額將超過 70 億美元。

Turning to infrastructure. Our perpetual BIP strategy is one of our fastest-growing areas, up 25% year-over-year to $37 billion. There will be massive funding needs over the next 15 to 20 years for infrastructure projects globally, notably including digital infrastructure and energy transition, where we are building sizable platforms.

轉向基礎設施。我們的永久 BIP 戰略是我們增長最快的領域之一，同比增長 25%，達到 370 億美元。未來 15 到 20 年，全球基礎設施項目將需要大量資金，特別是數字基礎設施和能源轉型，我們正在這些領域建設大型平台。

First, in digital infrastructure, there is a well-publicized arms race happening in AI. And the major tech companies are expected to invest $1 trillion over the next 5 years in this area, mostly to data centers. In 2021, we privatized the QTS data center business in BREIT, BIP and BPP for $10 billion. And it's showing extraordinary momentum with more capacity leased in the last 2 years than in the previous 17. We expect our investors will benefit significantly from the powerful tailwinds in this rapidly growing sector.

首先，在數字基礎設施方面，人工智能領域正在發生一場廣為人知的軍備競賽。預計主要科技公司將在未來 5 年內在這一領域投資 1 萬億美元，其中大部分投資於數據中心。 2021年，我們以100億美元將BREIT、BIP和BPP的QTS數據中心業務私有化。它顯示出非凡的勢頭，過去兩年的租賃容量比過去 17 年還要多。我們預計我們的投資者將從這個快速增長行業的強大推動力中受益匪淺。

In energy transition, decarbonization is projected to require $4.5 trillion of annual investment over the next 25 years, further supported by legislative action globally. This has been one of our busiest areas in BIP and also our dedicated energy transition private equity and credit funds. The firm's two largest commitments in the second quarter were a stake in a major utility to support its transition from significant coal-powered generation to 0% in 5 years and additional growth capital for our portfolio company, Invenergy, the nation's largest private renewables developer. We believe the need for scale capital and expertise in this area will only increase over time.

在能源轉型方面，預計未來 25 年脫碳每年需要 4.5 萬億美元的投資，並得到全球立法行動的進一步支持。這是我們 BIP 最繁忙的領域之一，也是我們專門的能源轉型私募股權和信貸基金。該公司第二季度最大的兩項承諾是持有一家大型公用事業公司的股份，以支持其在 5 年內從大量燃煤發電過渡到 0%，以及為我們的投資組合公司 Invenergy（美國最大的私營可再生能源開發商）提供額外的增長資本。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，該領域對規模資本和專業知識的需求只會增加。

Moving to life sciences. Major advances in genomics and precision medicines, coupled with a historic shift in the funding model for drug development, have created an unprecedented opportunity. We've established an extensive life sciences ecosystem at Blackstone with substantial capabilities and portfolio holdings across the firm. Our dedicated BX Life Sciences biopharmaceutical -- I'm sorry, our dedicated BXLS business has been actively deploying capital in partnership with major biopharmaceutical and med tech companies, most recently to support development of vaccines for pneumonia. We've also assembled the world's largest private lab office platform in real estate, concentrated in great markets like Cambridge, Massachusetts.

轉向生命科學。基因組學和精準醫學的重大進展，加上藥物開發融資模式的歷史性轉變，創造了前所未有的機遇。我們在 Blackstone 建立了廣泛的生命科學生態系統，在整個公司擁有強大的能力和投資組合。我們專門的 BX 生命科學生物製藥業務——抱歉，我們專門的 BXLS 業務一直在與主要生物製藥和醫療技術公司合作積極部署資本，最近是為了支持肺炎疫苗的開發。我們還組建了全球最大的房地產私人實驗室辦公平台，集中在馬薩諸塞州劍橋等重要市場。

Asia represents another significant opportunity for our firm, cutting across both business lines and distribution channels. India is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. And it's no coincidence, the country is our third-largest market for equity investing after the U.S. and U.K. In real estate, we even changed the landscape by working alongside regulators to launch India's first public REITs. Meanwhile, Japan is in early stages of its trajectory, both in terms of large investors starting to allocate to alternatives as well as deployment opportunities as the market opens to outside capital. Overall, there is substantial runway ahead for our business in Asia.

亞洲對我們公司來說是另一個重要的機遇，跨越了業務線和分銷渠道。預計印度仍將是世界上增長最快的主要經濟體之一。這並非巧合，該國是我們繼美國和英國之後的第三大股權投資市場。在房地產領域，我們甚至通過與監管機構合作推出印度首個公共房地產投資信託基金來改變這一格局。與此同時，日本正處於其發展軌蹟的早期階段，無論是大型投資者開始配置替代品，還是隨著市場向外部資本開放而帶來的部署機會。總體而言，我們在亞洲的業務還有很大的發展空間。

Finally, moving to our private wealth platform. We've established the world's leading alternatives business with approximately $240 billion of AUM. But this is an $80 trillion market with low single-digit allocations to alternatives today. Morgan Stanley's research team recently cited estimates of allocations rising to 10% to 20% over time. This is further substantiated by the discussions we have with the major distributors, who tell us they want significantly more exposure to our products.

最後，轉向我們的私人財富平台。我們已經建立了全球領先的另類業務，資產管理規模約為 2,400 億美元。但這是一個 80 萬億美元的市場，如今替代品的配置僅為個位數。摩根士丹利的研究團隊最近引用了估計，隨著時間的推移，分配比例將上升至 10% 至 20%。我們與主要分銷商的討論進一步證實了這一點，他們告訴我們他們希望更多地接觸我們的產品。

Although we do face some near-term headwinds, BCRED's flows have been accelerating, as I mentioned. And for BREIT, June was the lowest month so far this year in terms of share redemption requests, down nearly 30% from the January peak. Longer term, we remain confident in the reacceleration of growth in this channel, given our portfolio positioning and exceptional performance.

儘管我們近期確實面臨一些阻力，但正如我提到的，BCRED 的流動一直在加速。對於 BREIT 來說，就股票贖回請求而言，6 月份是今年迄今為止最低的月份，比 1 月份的峰值下降了近 30%。從長遠來看，鑑於我們的投資組合定位和卓越的業績，我們對該渠道的重新加速增長仍然充滿信心。

In closing, we are highly energized about the firm's prospects. We're focused on the open space in front of us. And we are building simple, scalable and repeatable businesses to tackle opportunities of tremendous size. I could not have more confidence in Blackstone's future.

最後，我們對公司的前景充滿信心。我們的注意力集中在我們面前的空地上。我們正在建立簡單、可擴展和可重複的業務，以抓住巨大的機遇。我對黑石的未來充滿信心。

And with that, I will turn things over to Michael.

這樣，我就把事情交給邁克爾了。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, which began amid the bank crisis and related market volatility, the firm delivered steady financial results and resilient fund performance.

謝謝喬恩，大家早上好。在銀行危機和相關市場波動的背景下開始的第二季度，該公司實現了穩定的財務業績和富有彈性的基金業績。

Starting with results. Our expansive breadth of growth engines lifted AUM to new record levels, as you've heard this morning. Total AUM increased 6% year-over-year to $1 trillion. The earning AUM rose 7% year-over-year to $731 billion, driving management fees up 9% to a record $1.7 billion. Notably, the second quarter marked the 54th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in base management fees at Blackstone.

從結果開始。正如您今天早上所聽到的那樣，我們廣泛的增長引擎將資產管理規模提升到了新的紀錄水平。總資產管理規模同比增長 6%，達到 1 萬億美元。盈利資產管理規模同比增長 7%，達到 7,310 億美元，帶動管理費增長 9%，達到創紀錄的 17 億美元。值得注意的是，第二季度標誌著 Blackstone 的基本管理費連續第 54 個季度同比增長。

Fee-related earnings increased 12% year-over-year to $1.1 billion or $0.94 per share, powered by the growth in management fees, coupled with the firm's robust margin position. FRE rose 10% sequentially from Q1 as fee-related performance revenues nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter to $267 million, even without contribution from BREIT, driven by multiple other perpetual capital vehicles in real estate and credit. As noted previously, we expect these revenues to further accelerate in the second half of this year, concentrated in Q4 with a number of scheduled crystallization events in the BPP platform.

在管理費增長以及公司強勁的利潤狀況的推動下，費用相關收益同比增長 12%，達到 11 億美元或每股 0.94 美元。即使沒有 BREIT 的貢獻，在房地產和信貸領域的多種其他永久資本工具的推動下，FRE 仍較第一季度增長 10%，與費用相關的業績收入環比增長近一倍，達到 2.67 億美元。如前所述，我們預計這些收入將在今年下半年進一步加速，主要集中在第四季度，BPP 平台將有一系列預定的結晶活動。

Distributable earnings were $1.2 billion in the second quarter or $0.93 per share, which was largely stable with Q1. The year-over-year comparison was affected by a material decline in net realizations from last year's record quarter. As expected, sales activity has remained muted against a slow transaction backdrop generally.

第二季度可分配收益為 12 億美元，即每股 0.93 美元，與第一季度基本持平。同比比較受到去年創紀錄季度淨實現大幅下降的影響。正如預期的那樣，在交易普遍緩慢的背景下，銷售活動仍然低迷。

However, we did execute the sales of public stock in certain of our private equity holdings, along with the portfolio of U.S. warehouses to Prologis for $3.1 billion at an attractive cap rate of 4%, a positive indication of value for the $175 billion of warehouses we continue to own, which are the firm's largest exposure.

然而，我們確實以 4% 的有吸引力的上限利率以 31 億美元的價格向 Prologis 出售了某些私募股權持有的公開股票，以及美國倉庫投資組合，這對我們繼續擁有的 1,750 億美元倉庫（該公司最大的風險敞口）的價值來說是一個積極的跡象。

Realizations in the quarter also included BREIT's sale of a resort hotel for $800 million, reflecting a 22% premium to its December carrying value and a multiple of invested capital of 2.2x. These sales illustrate the exceptional quality and embedded value of our portfolio.

本季度的變現還包括 BREIT 以 8 億美元的價格出售一家度假酒店，較 12 月份的賬面價值溢價 22%，投資資本的倍數為 2.2 倍。這些銷售體現了我們產品組合的卓越品質和內在價值。

Stepping back, our model, focused on long-term committed capital, keeps us from being forced sellers when markets are less favorable. During these periods, as we've seen in past cycles, a portion of our earnings related to realizations is interrupted but ultimately reemerges as markets heal. In the meantime, the firm's underlying earnings power continues to build.

退一步來說，我們的模式專注於長期承諾資本，這可以防止我們在市場不利時被迫出售。在這些時期，正如我們在過去的周期中看到的那樣，我們與變現相關的部分收益被中斷，但最終隨著市場的恢復而重新出現。與此同時，該公司的潛在盈利能力繼續增強。

Performance revenue-eligible AUM in the ground increased in the second quarter to a record $504 billion and has more than doubled in the past 3 years. Net accrued performance revenue on the balance sheet, the firm's store value, grew sequentially to $6.5 billion or $5.31 per share. In the context of more supportive markets, we are well positioned for an acceleration of realizations over time.

第二季度符合業績收入條件的實際資產管理規模增加至創紀錄的 5040 億美元，並且在過去 3 年中增長了一倍多。資產負債表上的淨應計績效收入（公司的儲值）連續增長至 65 億美元，即每股 5.31 美元。在市場支持性更強的背景下，我們處於有利位置，可以隨著時間的推移加速實現。

Turning to investment performance. Nearly all of our flagship strategies reported positive appreciation in the second quarter. Corporate private equity funds appreciated 3.5% with our operating companies reporting robust revenue growth of 12% year-over-year, along with expanding margins overall. These trends reflect our favorable sector positioning and focus on high-quality businesses with pricing power, coupled with cost deceleration.

轉向投資表現。我們幾乎所有的旗艦策略都在第二季度報告了積極的升值。企業私募股權基金升值 3.5%，我們的運營公司報告收入同比強勁增長 12%，整體利潤率不斷擴大。這些趨勢反映了我們有利的行業定位，並專注於具有定價能力的高質量業務，以及成本下降。

In real estate, the Core+ funds appreciated 1.7% in the quarter while the BREP opportunistic funds were stable. We are seeing sustained strength in our key sectors in terms of cash flow growth. Half of our owned real estate is in logistics, student housing and data centers, which have experienced double-digit year-over-year growth in market rents.

在房地產領域，Core+ 基金本季度升值 1.7%，而 BREP 機會主義基金則保持穩定。我們看到我們的關鍵行業在現金流增長方面持續強勁。我們擁有的房地產有一半用於物流、學生宿舍和數據中心，這些領域的市場租金同比增長了兩位數。

In our U.S. rental housing holdings overall, fundamentals are stable with cash flows increasing at a high single-digit rate. For BREIT, over 80% of the portfolio is concentrated in these sectors, leading to strong same-store NOI growth of approximately 7.5% in the first half of the year. Looking forward, an environment of lower inflation and lower interest rates should be very favorable for our real estate portfolio overall.

我們持有的美國租賃住房總體基本面穩定，現金流以高單位數速度增長。對於 BREIT 來說，超過 80% 的投資組合集中在這些領域，導致上半年同店 NOI 強勁增長約 7.5%。展望未來，較低通脹和較低利率的環境應該對我們的整體房地產投資組合非常有利。

In credit, the private and liquid credit strategies appreciated 3.3% and 2.8%, respectively, in the second quarter, reflective of a healthy portfolio generating strong current income. Despite a moderate uptick in broader market default rates, which we do expect to rise further, in our non-investment-grade portfolio, defaults remained low at less than 1%.

在信貸方面，第二季度私人和流動信貸策略分別升值 3.3% 和 2.8%，反映出健康的投資組合產生了強勁的當期收入。儘管更廣泛的市場違約率略有上升（我們預計該比率將進一步上升），但在我們的非投資級投資組合中，違約率仍然較低，低於 1%。

Finally, in BAAM, the BPS gross composite return was 1.9% in Q2, representing the 13th consecutive quarter of positive performance. Over the past several years, BAAM has done an outstanding job protecting investor capital in an environment of significant volatility in liquid markets. Since the start of 2021, the BPS composite net return is up over 14% compared to 1% for the traditional 60-40 portfolio. Overall, the resiliency and strength of the firm's returns over many years is the foundation of the extraordinary growth we've achieved.

最後，在 BAAM 中，BPS 第二季度的綜合總回報率為 1.9%，代表連續 13 個季度實現積極業績。過去幾年，BAAM 在流動性市場大幅波動的環境中保護投資者資本方面表現出色。自 2021 年初以來，BPS 綜合淨回報率增長了 14% 以上，而傳統 60-40 投資組合的淨回報率僅為 1%。總體而言，公司多年來回報的彈性和實力是我們實現非凡增長的基礎。

In closing, the firm continues on a path of an expanding asset base, reaching $1 trillion today and, we believe, ultimately well beyond. From the beginning, we've taken a very long-term view towards building an enduring business at Blackstone. Today, as the reference institution in our industry, we have the distinctive assets of our brand and reputation, our scale and our culture, a culture defined by decades of performance and innovation. This is what has powered our success to date and what we believe will propel our future.

最後，該公司繼續走上擴大資產基礎的道路，目前已達到 1 萬億美元，我們相信，最終會遠遠超出這一目標。從一開始，我們就以非常長遠的眼光致力於在 Blackstone 建立持久的業務。如今，作為我們行業的標杆機構，我們擁有品牌和聲譽、規模和文化等獨特資產，這種文化是由數十年的業績和創新所定義的。這是我們迄今為止取得成功的動力，也是我們相信將推動我們未來發展的動力。

With that, we thank you for joining the call and would like to open it up now for questions.

在此，我們感謝您加入此次電話會議，並希望現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們首先去找美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

And congrats on hitting $1 trillion. It feels like just a few years ago, you were around $70 billion at the IPO. My question is on the expanding opportunity inside the U.S. banking industry. So first, forming partnerships, I heard in the prepared remarks, you have about five now. They're building that out, two buying and originating assets and three maybe supplying capital at some point. So now that we're 4 months outside of the Silicon Valley Bank failure, can you provide us an update across these three verticals?

恭喜您突破 1 萬億美元。感覺就像幾年前，IPO 時的估值約為 700 億美元。我的問題是關於美國銀行業內部不斷擴大的機會。首先，建立夥伴關係，我在準備好的發言中聽說，現在大約有五個。他們正在構建這個，兩個購買和發起資產，三個可能在某個時候提供資本。現在距離矽谷銀行破產還有 4 個月的時間，您能否向我們提供這三個垂直領域的最新情況？

Sure, Craig. And thank you for the kind words. What we've seen here now is banks really recognizing that there's a natural partnership between their origination capabilities and some of the long-term capital we manage, particularly for insurance companies. So what we referenced in the prepared remarks was a number of these partnerships that we have formed and have executed or close to execute. We also have a decent pipeline behind that. And if you think about a bank with those strong customer relationships, if they're making 5-, 7-, 10-year home improvement or equipment finance loans, to have a partner like us to take some of those makes a lot of sense.

當然，克雷格。謝謝你的客氣話。我們現在在這裡看到的是，銀行真正認識到它們的發起能力和我們管理的一些長期資本之間存在天然的伙伴關係，特別是對於保險公司而言。因此，我們在準備好的發言中提到的是我們已經建立並已經執行或即將執行的一些合作夥伴關係。我們背後也有一個不錯的管道。如果您考慮一家擁有強大客戶關係的銀行，如果他們提供 5 年、7 年、10 年期的房屋裝修或設備融資貸款，那麼擁有像我們這樣的合作夥伴來承擔其中的一些貸款就很有意義。

And so we're involved in a number of discussions with banks who want to maintain their relationships with customers but either shrink their balance sheet or do other things to create capacity. I would also point out with the larger financial institutions, there are things to do with them to provide some balance sheet relief. We've been doing a number of those items with different pools of capital. So I think what's happening is good for the financial system. It's good for the banks. And it's obviously good for our customers. And we expect this will grow significantly over time.

因此，我們與銀行進行了多次討論，這些銀行希望維持與客戶的關係，但要么縮小資產負債表，要么採取其他措施來創造產能。我還想指出，對於較大的金融機構，他們可以採取一些措施來緩解資產負債表的壓力。我們一直在用不同的資金池做一些這樣的項目。所以我認為正在發生的事情對金融體係有利。這對銀行有好處。這顯然對我們的客戶有好處。我們預計這一數字將隨著時間的推移而顯著增長。

One thing I'd add is it's just not a U.S. phenomenon. This is very much U.S. and European, where everybody is feeling the pinch from regulatory pressure. They like to keep their customer. They like to keep producing assets. But they just don't have the balance sheets to hold all of them. So that's a particularly interesting area for us.

我要補充的一件事是，這不是美國現象。這在很大程度上是美國和歐洲的情況，每個人都感受到監管壓力的壓力。他們喜歡留住客戶。他們喜歡繼續生產資產。但他們只是沒有資產負債表來容納所有這些。所以這對我們來說是一個特別有趣的領域。

We'll go next to Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們將討論摩根士丹利的邁克爾·賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

So a big-picture question for you guys on the credit cycle. If we look across the financial system, credit losses coming in better than feared, whether it's C&I loans at the banks or in credit and private credit. So some of this perhaps relates to limited debt maturities perhaps.

這是一個關於信貸週期的大問題。如果我們縱觀整個金融體系，就會發現信貸損失比我們擔心的要好，無論是銀行的工商業貸款還是信貸和私人信貸。因此，其中一些可能與有限的債務期限有關。

But also, it seems like the impact of rate hikes is maybe less potent than feared, so just curious, your views and outlook here. And if we look at the private credit markets, maybe you can just remind us how much of the rate risk is hedged and for how long. And how do you see this all playing out?

而且，加息的影響似乎沒有人們擔心的那麼強大，所以只是好奇你的觀點和前景。如果我們看看私人信貸市場，也許你可以提醒我們對沖多少利率風險以及對沖多長時間。您如何看待這一切的發展？

So Mike, I would say everybody has been surprised, given the rapidity at which the Fed has raised rates and how high they've taken rates, that there hasn't been more distress. Interestingly today, if you look at the overall market, default rates are, in leveraged loans, for instance, are still below the long-term average. They're approaching it. They're at 2.7%. I think the long-term average is 3%. They got up to 13%, 14% during the GFC. What I would say -- and by the way, in our own portfolio, those defaults are still less than 1%.

邁克，我想說，考慮到美聯儲加息的速度以及利率的高低，每個人都感到驚訝，沒有出現更多的困境。有趣的是，如果你看看今天的整體市場，就會發現槓桿貸款的違約率仍然低於長期平均水平。他們正在接近它。他們是2.7%。我認為長期平均是3%。在全球金融危機期間，他們的比例達到了 13%、14%。我想說的是——順便說一句，在我們自己的投資組合中，這些違約率仍然低於 1%。

So I think it's a function of a couple of things. It may be some hedges certainly in place as people put in place some longer-term protection. But I think the biggest component of it is the strength of the earnings of the companies. Michael referenced in our own portfolio that 12% revenue growth. We're seeing strong revenue and EBITDA growth across our borrowers. And that is obviously helping. Companies in areas like technology are obviously looking at their cost structures, becoming more profit-focused. And so I think it's earnings growth that has supported this.

所以我認為這是幾個因素的作用。當人們採取一些長期保護措施時，可能肯定會採取一些對沖措施。但我認為其中最大的組成部分是公司盈利的實力。 Michael 在我們自己的投資組合中提到了 12% 的收入增長。我們看到借款人的收入和 EBITDA 強勁增長。這顯然是有幫助的。技術等領域的公司顯然正在關注其成本結構，變得更加註重利潤。所以我認為這是盈利增長支撐的。

I think it's a fair question, which is, as you look out over time, if the economy does moderate as we expect, rates stay elevated, would you expect more defaults going forward? And I think the answer to that is yes. But I don't think this is like '08/'09. I don't think we have the kinds of overleverage we had back then. And just to point it out, if you look at BCRED, our non-traded BDC, its average loan to value was 43% on its book.

我認為這是一個公平的問題，隨著時間的推移，如果經濟確實像我們預期的那樣放緩，利率保持在高位，你會預計未來會有更多違約嗎？我認為答案是肯定的。但我不認為這像'08/'09。我認為我們沒有像當時那樣過度槓桿化。需要指出的是，如果你看看 BCRED（我們的非交易 BDC），其賬面上的平均貸款價值比為 43%。

And much of that, of course, was originated prior to this rate hike. And if you contrast that to the '06/'07 period, when leverage levels were 70-plus percent, I think that's another reason people don't focus on why you have more of a cushion here and less distress. So picture today on the ground, certainly better than people would expect. Going forward, we'd expect that things will get tougher but not nearly as bad as that last cycle.

當然，其中大部分是在本次加息之前產生的。如果你將其與 06/07 時期的槓桿水平進行對比，當時的槓桿水平超過 70%，我認為這是人們不關注為什麼你在這裡擁有更多緩沖和更少困擾的另一個原因。所以今天的實際情況肯定比人們預期的要好。展望未來，我們預計情況會變得更加困難，但不會像上一個週期那麼糟糕。

And Jon, let me just add it on that. Mike, it's Michael. Just focusing on our outperformance versus the overall market with respect to default rates, and it has been pronounced. It's important, I think, to highlight sort of our relative position and focus. And our team would call it the three Ss: scale, sector selection and seniority.

喬恩，讓我補充一下。邁克，這是邁克爾。只要關注我們在違約率方面相對於整個市場的表現，這一點就已經很明顯了。我認為，強調我們的相對地位和重點很重要。我們的團隊將其稱為“三個 S”：規模、行業選擇和資歷。

On scale, we're obviously a large player. We are focused on larger issuers. And we believe, overall, it's already been shown in a high inflation world, larger companies are more resilient with respect to performance through the cycles. And again, that's been shown, I think, in terms of more options to respond to a rising cost inflation environment recently.

從規模上看，我們顯然是一個大玩家。我們專注於較大的發行人。我們相信，總體而言，在高通脹的世界中已經證明，較大的公司在整個週期的業績方面更具彈性。我認為，這再次體現在應對最近不斷上升的成本通脹環境的更多選擇方面。

Second on sector selection. If you look at our portfolio versus sort of the industry average, our focus in recent years away from cyclicals, some consumer discretionary companies, certain industrial companies has, I think, really paid off. And then with respect to seniority, which Jon touched on in additional loan to value, 98% basically of our direct lending portfolio in BCRED is senior secured.

二是行業選擇。如果你看看我們的投資組合與行業平均水平，我認為近年來我們對周期性股票、一些非必需消費品公司和某些工業公司的關注確實得到了回報。然後就優先級而言，喬恩在額外貸款價值比中提到了這一點，我們在 BCRED 的直接貸款投資組合中基本上 98% 都是高級擔保的。

And actually, even our peers in the direct lending area are substantially lower than that, in some cases, 70%, 75%. And so that is the top of the capital stack. And that is very protected. So I think Jon talked about the overall sort of default rates in the path. And we do expect them to rise for the market overall and for us. But our sort of experience and outperformance on default rates, which has been both historical and current, I think, has some underlying drivers that are important to highlight.

事實上，即使是我們在直接貸款領域的同行也遠遠低於這個水平，在某些情況下，70%、75%。這就是資本堆棧的頂部。這是非常受保護的。所以我認為喬恩談論了整個路徑中的違約率。我們確實預計整個市場和我們的股價都會上漲。但我認為，我們在歷史和當前的違約率方面的經驗和優異表現有一些值得強調的潛在驅動因素。

We'll go next to Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將與 Evercore ISI 一起討論 Glenn Schorr。

Maybe big picture on real estate in general. I'm curious if where -- the 10-year has been kind of in the same range for a while now, even as we get in the last of the short-end rate hikes. So I think cap rates have leveled off as well. Maybe you could take a snapshot on where you think we're at leverage-wise, debt service coverage-wise and what the sales pitch for real estate in general is going to be if that's an environment that we're in over the next handful of years.

也許是房地產的總體情況。我很好奇，即使我們進入了最後一次短期加息，十年期國債已經在同一區間內一段時間了。所以我認為資本化率也已經趨於平穩。也許您可以快速了解一下您認為我們在槓桿方面、償債覆蓋範圍方面的情況，以及如果這是我們未來幾年所處的環境，那麼房地產的總體銷售宣傳將會是什麼。

Well, Glenn, I would say that there continues to be pretty significant bifurcation in commercial real estate. So we've talked about it in the past, certain sectors face real underlying fundamental headwinds that would be notably the office space in the United States, which we've talked about is less than 2% of our own portfolio. And there, I still think we have a ways to go in terms of what will be, I think, continued challenges going forward. And there will be more foreclosures and more markdowns coming in portfolios.

格倫，我想說商業房地產領域仍然存在相當大的分歧。因此，我們過去曾討論過，某些行業面臨真正的潛在基本面阻力，尤其是美國的辦公空間，我們討論過的辦公空間不足我們自己投資組合的 2%。在那裡，我仍然認為，面對未來持續的挑戰，我們還有很長的路要走。投資組合中將會出現更多的止贖和更多的降價。

We continue to see in a number of sectors, particularly our largest sector, logistics, very strong underlying fundamentals, where rents are growing globally around double digits, other areas like student housing with real strength, data centers, which we talked about in the remarks, again real strength. And then other sectors, I'd say, somewhere in between, those top 3 sectors I mentioned, represent 50% of our global portfolio. And so what I would say is in better sectors where the fundamentals are good, the fact that rates seem to belong and seem to have reached a level and may be heading lower, we'll see. I think they'll stick around here, given the short end.

我們繼續看到許多行業，特別是我們最大的行業物流，有著非常強勁的基本面，全球租金在兩位數左右增長，其他領域，如學生宿舍、數據中心，我們在演講中談到了真正的實力。然後是其他行業，我想說，介於兩者之間，我提到的前 3 個行業占我們全球投資組合的 50%。因此，我想說的是，在基本面良好的較好行業中，利率似乎屬於並且似乎已達到一定水平，並且可能會走低，我們拭目以待。考慮到時間有限，我認為他們會留在這裡。

And at some point here, 12, 24 months from now, the Fed will start to take the short end down. That's obviously positive. Because to your point, cap rate pressure is very tied to rates. And so if we're at a point in the cycle where the risk of rates going much higher is off the table, that's helpful to real estate. The other helpful pitch in real estate is you're seeing a sharp decline in new supply. So in logistics, for instance, we've seen a decline of new starts around 40%, 50%, depending on markets. Housing supply is down aggregately about 20-plus percent from where it was. And you're seeing it in hotels and other areas.

從現在起 12、24 個月後的某個時候，美聯儲將開始縮減空頭頭寸。這顯然是積極的。因為就你的觀點而言，上限利率壓力與利率密切相關。因此，如果我們正處於週期中利率大幅上漲的風險已經不存在的階段，這對房地產業是有幫助的。房地產領域的另一個有用的說法是，新供應量急劇下降。例如，在物流領域，我們看到新開工量下降了 40% 至 50% 左右，具體取決於市場。住房供應量比原來減少了約 20% 以上。您在酒店和其他區域也能看到這種情況。

And so if you think about coming out of this over time as investors, if you can invest in sectors where the underlying vacancy rates are low today, there's going to be less building and interest rates are no longer a major threat, if the asset has been marked to sort of the new market, then we think there's significant opportunity. And that, I think, is really the pitch. Today, the area we're most active in is actually European real estate, particularly in logistics, because the sentiment around European real estate is so negative. And yet if you look at, for instance, rental growth in U.K. logistics, it's incredibly strong.

因此，如果你考慮隨著時間的推移，作為投資者擺脫這種困境，如果你可以投資於目前潛在空置率較低的行業，那麼建築就會減少，利率也不再是主要威脅，如果該資產已被標記為某種新市場，那麼我們認為存在巨大的機會。我認為這才是真正的重點。今天，我們最活躍的領域實際上是歐洲房地產，特別是物流領域，因為圍繞歐洲房地產的情緒非常消極。然而，例如，如果你看看英國物流業的租金增長，就會發現它的強勁程度令人難以置信。

So I think we're in a moment where everybody is extrapolating what's happening in office buildings, becoming incredibly negative about the sector. But that's going to create some real opportunities. And to your point on debt, there will be need for people to sell and inject capital because of the higher debt costs that are out there. So I think sector selection really matters as we talk about. And then these tailwinds around rates leveling off and new supply coming down should be very helpful to the asset class over time.

因此，我認為我們正處於這樣一個時刻，每個人都在推斷辦公樓中發生的事情，對該行業變得非常負面。但這將創造一些真正的機會。至於你關於債務的觀點，由於債務成本較高，人們將需要出售和注入資本。因此，我認為正如我們所討論的，行業選擇確實很重要。隨著時間的推移，利率趨於平穩和新供應量下降的利好因素應該會對資產類別非常有幫助。

We'll go next to Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將採訪德意志銀行的布萊恩·比德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

Maybe if you can just talk about two of our fastest-growing platforms, direct lending, I think you mentioned $100 million, and then also the energy transition platform, if you added all your products together, maybe if you could size that. I know it can be difficult because obviously some of the infrastructure and energy products or a blend of transition and core. But I don't know if you can size that. And as you think about over the next 3 years, I don't know if you can actually have a sort of a projection on where the size of those platforms could be in 3 years, if not, maybe just confident that they will be a larger share of your overall franchise or not.

也許您可以談談我們增長最快的兩個平台，直接貸款，我想您提到了 1 億美元，然後還有能源轉型平台，如果您將所有產品加在一起，也許您可以確定規模。我知道這可能很困難，因為顯然有些基礎設施和能源產品或過渡和核心的混合體。但我不知道你能否確定這個尺寸。當你考慮未來 3 年時，我不知道你是否真的可以對 3 年後這些平台的規模進行某種預測，如果不能，也許只是相信它們將在你的整體特許經營中佔據更大的份額。

So I would say on the energy transition side, we're in early days. We just are finishing off raising the $7 billion energy transition credit fund. We're in the market with our energy equity fund, which we expect will be probably $4 billion-plus. And then energy transition, energy is a meaningful chunk of our $37 billion infrastructure business. It's probably 1/3 of that capital but probably the fastest-growing. If you went -- and by the way, we also have embedded in our private equity business a bunch of energy transition investments there and in our core private equity business. So you would have to go through it, I don't have the numbers handy, is where this would be.

所以我想說，在能源轉型方面，我們還處於早期階段。我們剛剛完成 70 億美元能源轉型信貸基金的籌集工作。我們在市場上投資了我們的能源股票基金，我們預計該基金的規模可能超過 40 億美元。然後是能源轉型，能源是我們 370 億美元基礎設施業務的重要組成部分。它可能佔該資本的 1/3，但可能是增長最快的。如果你去了——順便說一句，我們還在我們的私募股權業務和我們的核心私募股權業務中嵌入了一系列能源轉型投資。所以你必須仔細檢查一下，我手邊沒有數字，這就是這個地方。

But you've got a number of areas we're deploying capital in energy transition. If you looked in the quarter, as I said, the two biggest investments we made were an investment in a Northern Indiana utility business, a couple of billion dollars we invested to help them facilitate the energy transition. And then we also had another $1 billion we put into Invenergy, our large-scale renewables developer. So I would say because the size of the market is growing so quickly and investor desire for exposure to this is growing as well, we think this can be a lot bigger. I don't know if we have a number. We said publicly a couple of years ago that we expect to invest $100 billion over the decade. And we said that 2 years ago.

但我們正在能源轉型的許多領域部署資金。如果你看看這個季度，正如我所說，我們所做的兩項最大的投資是對印第安納州北部公用事業企業的投資，我們投資了數十億美元來幫助他們促進能源轉型。然後我們還向大型可再生能源開發商 Invenergy 投入了另外 10 億美元。所以我想說，由於市場規模增長如此之快，投資者對此的渴望也在增長，我們認為這個規模可能會大得多。我不知道我們有沒有號碼。幾年前我們公開表示，我們預計在十年內投資 1000 億美元。我們兩年前就說過了。

So I would say when you look at Blackstone over time, this will be an area of a lot of capital needs. And the good news is the investors want it. It can be very large, very scalable. And so we expect that this will accelerate. The IRA in the U.S. has made a big difference. I mean, there was $250 billion of large-scale renewable projects announced in the last 7 years. And there was an equal amount announced in the last year basically since the IRA passing. So we would say very large scale opportunity and should result in a new area for us to grow and generate incremental fees and returns for investors.

所以我想說，當你隨著時間的推移觀察黑石時，這將是一個需要大量資本的領域。好消息是投資者想要它。它可以非常大，非常可擴展。因此我們預計這將會加速。美國的愛爾蘭共和軍（IRA）發揮了很大的作用。我的意思是，過去 7 年宣布了價值 2500 億美元的大型可再生能源項目。自從愛爾蘭共和軍通過以來，去年也宣布了相同的金額。因此，我們會說非常大規模的機會，應該會為我們帶來一個新的發展領域，並為投資者帶來增量費用和回報。

Brian, just to add to that with the numbers, it's Michael. The sort of fair market value of our energy transition portfolio today is over $20 billion. And there's committed capital that shortly that's going to be invested and increase that number. And obviously, we have funds pointed at investing in that area in the near term. So that number will grow. But in terms of what we own today, it's in that ballpark.

布萊恩，補充一下數字，是邁克爾。目前我們能源轉型投資組合的公平市場價值超過 200 億美元。並且很快就會有承諾的資本進行投資並增加這個數字。顯然，我們有資金計劃在短期內投資該領域。所以這個數字將會增長。但就我們今天擁有的資產而言，就在這個範圍內。

Yes. That's great. And then just on the direct lending side, I know you said $100 billion and you've got obviously the bank partnerships and the strong pipeline. Any capacity constraints that would sort of limit the growth potential of that franchise just in the context obviously of the trends versus the -- with banks going back?

是的。那太棒了。然後就直接貸款方面而言，我知道您說的是 1000 億美元，而且您顯然擁有銀行合作夥伴關係和強大的渠道。在明顯的趨勢與銀行倒退的背景下，是否有任何能力限制會限制該特許經營權的增長潛力？

Well, I think near term, the opportunity set is pretty large. We -- private equity firms and other companies need this access to capital. The certainty direct lending provides, I think, has proven to be very valuable, particularly for new transactions. We would expect, as deal volume picks up, this area should pick up as well. We've seen our pipeline grow more than double in the last 90 days in direct lending. We don't see a reason why this should slow down. At some point, markets change and so forth. But if you look at direct lending as a percentage of the overall leverage lending and high-yield market, I still think there's plenty of room for this to grow. So we think it's early days still on this shift.

嗯，我認為短期內，機會相當大。我們——私募股權公司和其他公司需要這種獲得資本的途徑。我認為，直接貸款提供的確定性已被證明非常有價值，特別是對於新交易而言。我們預計，隨著交易量的增加，該領域也應該有所回升。過去 90 天內，我們的直接貸款渠道增長了一倍多。我們看不出有什麼理由可以減緩這種速度。在某些時候，市場會發生變化等等。但如果你看看直接貸款佔整個槓桿貸款和高收益市場的百分比，我仍然認為它還有很大的增長空間。所以我們認為這種轉變還處於早期階段。

We'll go next to Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛的亞歷克斯·布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

So John, maybe a question on the broader capital markets environment. We've seen some green shoots with a couple of IPOs, a couple of deal announcements. So how are you sort of thinking about capital velocity for Blackstone over the next, call it, 6 to 12 months or so?

約翰，也許是關於更廣泛的資本市場環境的問題。我們已經看到一些首次公開募股（IPO）和幾項交易公告的萌芽。那麼，您如何看待 Blackstone 在未來 6 到 12 個月左右的時間裡的資本流動速度？

And importantly, as some of that kind of flywheel activity resumes, how do you expect that to reaccelerate fundraising, so meaning, are there some strategies that are likely to see more pent-up demand once this capital market cycle sort of resumes versus less? So just curious to kind of get your thoughts on environment/fundraising.

重要的是，隨著此類飛輪活動的恢復，您預計如何重新加速融資，因此，一旦資本市場週期恢復，是否有一些策略可能會看到更多被壓抑的需求，而不是更少的需求？所以只是想了解一下您對環境/籌款的想法。

Yes, Alex, you're right. It's all interconnected, right? Because if you think about our clients and their numerator and denominator, it's obviously very tied to what's happening in the market. So their denominator is -- and today, their challenge is, in many cases, they're over their allocations. So let's say they have a 13% allocation to private equity and they're at 15% or 16%. As equity markets rally, then that frees up capital for them to potentially allocate to private again.

是的，亞歷克斯，你是對的。這一切都是相互關聯的，對嗎？因為如果你考慮一下我們的客戶及其分子和分母，它顯然與市場上發生的事情密切相關。所以他們的分母是 - 今天，他們的挑戰是，在許多情況下，他們超出了分配。假設他們有 13% 的資金分配給私募股權，而他們的比例是 15% 或 16%。隨著股市上漲，這將釋放資本，讓他們有可能再次配置給私人資本。

At the same time, as equity markets rally, IPO and M&A activity picks up. And so private equity sponsors, real estate sponsors could sell assets, again reducing the exposure in the numerator. So these things are tied. We've been through these cycles many times. Our expectation is you will see a pickup in activity. The reason why is inflation uncertainty makes it hard to do M&A and IPOs. We had a lot of uncertainty around the banking issues. We had uncertainty around inflation and uncertainty on how far the Fed would go. And the contours of that looks a little more certain. And I think that's one of the reasons why markets are getting more enthused.

與此同時，隨著股市上漲，IPO和併購活動有所增加。因此，私募股權發起人、房地產發起人可以出售資產，再次減少分子的風險敞口。所以這些東西是捆綁在一起的。我們已經多次經歷過這樣的循環。我們的期望是您會看到活動有所回升。通貨膨脹的不確定性使得併購和IPO變得困難。我們在銀行問題上有很多不確定性。我們對通脹存在不確定性，對美聯儲會走多遠也存在不確定性。其輪廓看起來更加確定。我認為這就是市場變得更加熱情的原因之一。

Now is it possible we see an economic slowdown, the markets pull back a bit? We -- it's too early to sort of put out an all-clear sign here. But I think we are beginning to see this pickup in activity. And as markets rally, that tends to lead people to have more confidence to transact, which plays its way through ultimately to our customers. Right now, we're still -- there's a bit of a lag as you think about it in terms of fundraising activity. But a sustained good period for markets is very helpful for our ability to raise capital, particularly from institutional investors, also from individual investors.

現在我們是否有可能看到經濟放緩，市場略有回落？我們——現在在這裡發布解除警報的標誌還為時過早。但我認為我們已經開始看到這種活動的回升。隨著市場上漲，這往往會導致人們更有信心進行交易，這最終會影響到我們的客戶。現在，我們在籌款活動方面仍然存在一些滯後。但市場持續良好的時期對於我們籌集資金的能力非常有幫助，特別是從機構投資者和個人投資者那裡籌集資金。

We'll go next to Adam Beatty with UBS.

接下來我們將討論瑞銀集團的亞當·比蒂。

I want to ask about the retail wealth management channel. It seems like even though redemptions are still elevated on the BCRED side, it looks like subscriptions are relatively healthy and accelerating. So it seems that the channel as such is definitely improving. On the BREIT side, gross subscriptions, maybe not quite so much. So just wanted to get your thoughts on what you're hearing and seeing from the channel and maybe the outlook for the back half.

我想問一下零售理財渠道。儘管 BCRED 方面的贖回量仍然較高，但訂閱量似乎相對健康且正在加速。所以看來這個渠道確實在改善。在 BREIT 方面，總訂閱量可能沒有那麼多。所以只是想了解一下您對從頻道中聽到和看到的內容的想法，以及後半部分的前景。

Well, you hit it. In BCRED, there's obviously a lot of enthusiasm for private credit today, given the attractive risk/return, the equity-like returns, taking debt-like risk. And so we have seen strong flows there. Q2, I think we said we're up 60% versus the flows in Q1. And that's obviously a positive. In BREIT, there is more negative sentiment obviously around commercial real estate. And there was a lot of focus here. As we said in the remarks, the good news is share redemptions are down nearly 30% from where they were at the beginning of the year.

好吧，你擊中了。在 BCRED，鑑於有吸引力的風險/回報、類似股票的回報和承擔類似債務的風險，今天顯然對私人信貸抱有很大的熱情。所以我們看到那裡有強勁的資金流動。第二季度，我想我們說過我們的流量比第一季度增長了 60%。這顯然是積極的。在 BREIT 中，圍繞商業地產的負面情緒明顯較多。這裡有很多焦點。正如我們在評論中所說，好消息是股票贖回量較年初下降了近 30%。

The subscriptions remain muted. But we would expect that continued strong performance. We did have 3 positive months here in a row, which is obviously helpful. Some of the overall negative sentiment in markets and negative sentiment in commercial real estate, some of that abating will ultimately change that dialogue. When that happens, it's hard to project. I think the key thing, if you think about the product, is that customers have had a really terrific experience inside of BREIT.

訂閱仍然保持沉默。但我們預計這種表現將持續強勁。我們確實連續三個月表現積極，這顯然很有幫助。市場上的一些整體負面情緒和商業房地產的負面情緒，其中一些的減弱最終將改變這種對話。當這種情況發生時，就很難預測了。我認為，如果你考慮一下產品，關鍵是客戶在 BREIT 內獲得了非常棒的體驗。

They've been delivering in the largest share class a 12% net return over 6.5 years, 3x the public REIT market. And it's that performance which ultimately we think will drive people coming back to the product. And the structure, the redemption structure, the semi-liquid nature, still allowing people to get capital out but doing it over time and preserving value, I think, has been really important. So our confidence in BREIT remains really high. When that turns, it's hard to say. But certainly, getting through the redemption backlog over time will be helpful in that regard.

他們在最大的股票類別中在 6.5 年內實現了 12% 的淨回報率，是公共 REIT 市場的 3 倍。我們認為，正是這種性能最終會促使人們重新使用該產品。我認為，結構、贖回結構、半流動性仍然允許人們取出資本，但隨著時間的推移並保持價值，這非常重要。因此，我們對 BREIT 的信心仍然很高。當情況發生變化時，就很難說了。但當然，隨著時間的推移，解決贖回積壓問題將在這方面有所幫助。

We'll go next to Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

接下來我們將請來自主研究中心的帕特里克·戴維特 (Patrick Davitt)。

Yesterday, the FTC released its planned draft merger guidelines, which appeared to crack down particularly hard on platform and roll-up strategies that private equity firms have used to create some of their best outcomes. So firstly, do you have any initial thoughts on how big of an impact those changes could have on how your investment process works? And secondly, if you can try to frame how much of your historical deal volume has been a result of platform and roll-up strategies.

昨天，聯邦貿易委員會發布了計劃中的合併指南草案，該指南似乎對私募股權公司用來創造最佳結果的平台和匯總策略進行了特別嚴厲的打擊。首先，您對這些變化可能對您的投資流程產生多大影響有什麼初步想法嗎？其次，您是否可以嘗試確定歷史交易量中有多少是平台和匯總策略的結果。

So we believe that what the FTC announced was really just a codification of the way they've been operating the last 3 years. They have had this more assertive approach towards mergers. And we've been operating in that environment already. For us, we haven't seen it as large of an impact as one might expect. Because oftentimes, we're not present in a given market. So buying things is not as big of an issue.

因此，我們認為 FTC 宣布的實際上只是他們過去 3 年運作方式的法典化。他們對合併採取了更加自信的態度。我們已經在這種環境中運營了。對於我們來說，我們還沒有看到它產生的影響如人們預期的那麼大。因為很多時候，我們並不在特定的市場中。所以買東西並不是什麼大問題。

We have had some strategies where we have done additional acquisitions, roll-ups. That hasn't been a huge portion of our activity in corporate private equity. And remember, so many of the things we do, secondaries, real estate, private credit are not related here. But in corporate private equity on the acquisition side, it hasn't been a major issue. I would say where it's more impactful is when we're looking to exit some of our businesses and we're talking to strategics.

我們制定了一些策略，進行了額外的收購、整合。這並不是我們企業私募股權活動的很大一部分。請記住，我們所做的很多事情，二級市場、房地產、私人信貸都與這裡無關。但在企業私募股權收購方面，這並不是一個主要問題。我想說的是，當我們尋求退出一些業務並且我們正在討論戰略時，影響力更大。

And there, there's a real consideration now about what is the likelihood of something getting through. And so that has had an impact on our thinking on what relative attractiveness of nonstrategic players relative to strategic players. So I would say that this has been a reality of the marketplace for some time. We've been navigating through it. And we feel confident we'll continue to navigate through it. And the key area of focus is really when we're looking at dispositions potentially to strategic players.

在那裡，現在需要真正考慮某件事通過的可能性有多大。因此，這影響了我們對非戰略參與者相對於戰略參與者的相對吸引力的思考。所以我想說，這已經成為市場的現實一段時間了。我們一直在探索它。我們有信心繼續渡過難關。當我們考慮對戰略參與者的潛在配置時，真正關注的關鍵領域是。

We'll go next to Ben Budish with Barclays.

接下來我們將與巴克萊銀行的本·布迪什 (Ben Budish) 會面。

I wanted to ask about your fee-related performance revenues. They kind of surprised in the quarter. And it sounds like you're still expecting an acceleration in the back half. Is there any way you could sort of size up a little bit kind of the magnitude of that acceleration?

我想問一下你們與費用相關的演出收入。他們對本季度感到有點驚訝。聽起來你仍然期待後半段的加速。有什麼方法可以稍微估算一下加速度的大小嗎？

And then just sort of thinking about next year, I know there's often like a 3-year crystallization schedule outside of what we expect from BREIT. So any thoughts on what we should expect from '23 to '24 based on what you're seeing right now?

然後想想明年，我知道通常會有一個 3 年的結晶計劃，超出了我們對 BREIT 的預期。那麼，根據您現在所看到的情況，您對 23 到 24 年間我們應該期待什麼有什麼想法嗎？

Sure, Ben, it's Michael. Yes, we've been saying since early in the year that specifically that on BPP fee-related performance revenues, we were scheduled to have 4 and we are scheduled to have 4x more AUM crystallizing this year than last year with the ramp really in the second half of the year. And that's what you're seeing playing out.

當然，本，這是邁克爾。是的，我們從今年年初就一直在說，特別是在與 BPP 費用相關的績效收入方面，我們計劃今年的 AUM 比去年多 4 倍，並且真正在下半年實現增長。這就是你所看到的情況。

Just to put some further granularity on that, right now, about 60% of the net accrued performance revenue balance for BPP, which you can see in our quarterly report, represents vehicles with scheduled crystallizations in the second half. And that's substantially weighted towards the fourth quarter. So that should give you some texture around it. That sort of AUM scheduled to crystallize next year for BPP will be lower than this year. But alongside that, our infrastructure fund will see a significant crystallization event next year.

為了進一步說明這一點，目前，您可以在我們的季度報告中看到，BPP 約 60% 的淨應計績效收入餘額代表了下半年計劃結晶的車輛。這很大程度上取決於第四季度。所以這應該會給你一些周圍的紋理。 BPP 明年的資產管理規模將低於今年。但除此之外，我們的基礎設施基金明年還將經歷一次重大的結晶事件。

And then I'd actually also highlight on fee-related performance revenues, and we don't necessarily talk it about a lot or we're not asked about it a lot, but on BCRED and BXSL, our two credit direct lending perpetual vehicles, they have sort of steadily expanding earnings power. And you can actually see it in the numbers. And obviously, both generate quite predictable fees each quarter based on investment income.

然後我實際上還要強調與費用相關的績效收入，我們不一定會談論很多，也不會被問到很多，但在 BCRED 和 BXSL（我們的兩種信貸直接貸款永續工具）上，它們具有穩步擴大的盈利能力。您實際上可以從數字中看到這一點。顯然，兩者每個季度都會根據投資收入產生相當可預測的費用。

And in the second quarter, those comprised approximately half of our fee-related performance revenues. And taken together, they're up 67% actually year-over-year. So that is a steady sort of embedded, I think, positive thing in our fee-related performance revenue. So as I said in my remarks, there are multiple products at work here that are in position to generate fee-related performance revenues over time.

在第二季度，這些收入約占我們與費用相關的績效收入的一半。總的來說，它們實際上同比增長了 67%。因此，我認為，這是我們與費用相關的績效收入中一種穩定的、嵌入的積極因素。正如我在發言中所說，這裡有多種產品正在發揮作用，隨著時間的推移，它們可以產生與費用相關的績效收入。

We'll go next to Brian McKenna with JMP Securities.

接下來我們將邀請 JMP 證券公司的布萊恩·麥肯納 (Brian McKenna)。

So just following up on your comments on Asia, performance for your first BCP Asia fund has been strong with net returns of 27%. And then it looks like the second fund is off to a strong start as well. So could you talk about what's driving the healthy performance here? And then just in terms of building out your capabilities and scale in the region more broadly, I'm assuming you'll look to do this organically. But would you ever look to strategic M&A to help accelerate growth here?

因此，根據您對亞洲的評論，您的第一隻 BCP 亞洲基金表現強勁，淨回報率為 27%。然後看起來第二隻基金也有了一個良好的開端。那麼您能談談是什麼推動了這裡的健康表現嗎？然後，就更廣泛地增強您在該地區的能力和規模而言，我假設您會尋求有機地做到這一點。但您是否會尋求戰略併購來幫助加速這裡的增長？

So the real story for us in Asia has been India. Our team there has really delivered, particularly in private equity, Amit Dixit and the team have delivered amongst our highest returns globally in India. And it's represented, frankly in real estate and private equity, about half of our Asia activities. And we had different weightings, I think, than others in the region. And that's kind of turned out to be a very good decision. We've been a control-oriented investor in India, which we think is the right strategy.

因此，對於我們亞洲人來說，真正的故事是印度。我們的團隊確實取得了巨大的成就，特別是在私募股權領域，阿米特·迪克西特 (Amit Dixit) 和他的團隊在印度實現了全球最高的回報。坦率地說，它在房地產和私募股權領域佔據了我們亞洲業務的大約一半。我認為，我們的權重與該地區其他國家的權重不同。事實證明這是一個非常好的決定。我們一直是印度的控制型投資者，我們認為這是正確的策略。

We're also seeing very good opportunities in Japan today. That market is opening up to corporates selling off nonstrategic divisions. We think we'll see more volume there. And frankly, across the region, there is more opportunity. China is a little more challenging, as you know, because of the economic headwinds and some of the geopolitical issues. But in general, Asia can grow to be much larger.

今天我們在日本也看到了非常好的機會。該市場正在向出售非戰略部門的企業開放。我們認為我們會看到更多的交易量。坦率地說，整個地區都有更多的機會。如您所知，由於經濟逆風和一些地緣政治問題，中國面臨的挑戰更大一些。但總的來說，亞洲可以發展得更大。

We don't really think we have the need to do an acquisition. We have 8-plus, I guess, offices across the region. I was there this quarter. Our momentum in places like Australia, Korea, really strong. And we think it's a market that is underpenetrated as it relates to alternatives. And ultimately, we hope to have virtually all of our strategies in Asia at scale. So we have a sizable Asia private equity fund, sizable Asia real estate fund. We've got a Core+ real estate fund in Asia.

我們真的認為我們沒有必要進行收購。我猜我們在整個地區有 8 個以上的辦事處。這個季度我在那兒。我們在澳大利亞、韓國等地的勢頭非常強勁。我們認為這是一個滲透率較低的市場，因為它與替代品相關。最終，我們希望在亞洲實現幾乎所有戰略的規模化。所以我們有相當規模的亞洲私募股權基金、相當規模的亞洲房地產基金。我們在亞洲有一個 Core+ 房地產基金。

And we're doing more on the credit side in that part of the world. Hopefully, we'll add growth. There are a lot of opportunities there, given the scale of the place. Certainly, India, which has been our largest market, I think, will continue to be a mainstay for us, just given the incredible tailwinds that country has today.

我們正在該地區的信貸方面做更多的事情。希望我們能夠增加增長。考慮到這個地方的規模，那裡有很多機會。當然，我認為印度一直是我們最大的市場，鑑於該國今天擁有令人難以置信的順風，它將繼續成為我們的支柱。

We'll go next to Mike Brown with KBW.

接下來我們將與 KBW 一起前往邁克·布朗 (Mike Brown)。

So you're 75% of the way through the $150 billion drawdown fundraising target. Can you just touch on the key funds that will allow you to substantially achieve it by early 2024? And then outside of the drawdown fund, like in the wealth channel, how do you think about the growth opportunity in this channel over the coming years? And are you anticipating launching some new products into that channel either later this year or next year?

因此，您已完成 1500 億美元的籌款目標的 75%。您能否簡單談談能夠幫助您在 2024 年初實現這一目標的關鍵資金？然後，在回撤基金之外，例如在財富渠道中，您如何看待未來幾年該渠道的增長機會？您是否預計在今年晚些時候或明年向該渠道推出一些新產品？

I'll just start, Mike, just on the path to 75% to substantially completing that by early next year. So obviously, some of the big funds, we're in the market with. But it's BREP Europe where we expect -- we've had a first close and we expect that to continue, BCP IX, obviously, completing that over the coming quarters, our fifth real estate debt fund and a number of other funds. Next year, we'll also be fundraising around our successor vehicles in life science and also in our GP Stakes fund.

邁克，我將剛剛開始，在明年初之前基本完成 75%。顯然，我們在市場上有一些大型基金。但我們所期望的是 BREP Europe——我們已經完成了首次交割，我們預計這種情況將繼續下去，顯然，BCP IX 將在未來幾個季度完成，這是我們的第五個房地產債務基金和許多其他基金。明年，我們還將圍繞生命科學領域的後續產品以及 GP 股權基金進行籌款。

One thing I'd say as it relates to kind of financial impact, we talked about sort of 75%. But importantly, less than half of the $150 billion flagship fundraise is currently earning management fees. And so because it obviously lags fundraise, because based on deployment, you light funds later after you close them, and that percentage will accelerate over the coming quarters into 2024. So that's sort of the picture on the path.

我想說的一件事與財務影響有關，我們談到了 75%。但重要的是，在 1500 億美元的旗艦融資中，目前只有不到一半能夠賺取管理費。因此，因為它顯然滯後於籌款，因為根據部署，您在關閉資金後會稍後籌集資金，並且該百分比將在未來幾個季度直至 2024 年加速。這就是道路上的情況。

And then the question was around individual investor wealth, new products. Yes, we are -- I don't know if we're prepared to talk about the latest funds, but we do think there's more opportunity. Doing what we do today at greater scale in a different range of products, I think later this year, we'll launch something new. And one of the areas, we've already started small in Europe with some other products. There's a lot of opportunity. Investors are just discovering -- individual investors just discovering the benefits of alternatives. The semi-liquid structures are new to many investors. And we think this is a long process.

接下來的問題是圍繞個人投資者的財富和新產品。是的，我們是——我不知道我們是否準備好談論最新的資金，但我們確實認為還有更多機會。我認為，在不同系列的產品中更大規模地開展我們今天所做的事情，我想今年晚些時候，我們將推出新的產品。其中一個領域，我們已經在歐洲開始小範圍推出一些其他產品。有很多機會。投資者剛剛發現——個人投資者剛剛發現另類投資的好處。半流動結構對許多投資者來說都是新鮮事。我們認為這是一個漫長的過程。

Our major competitive advantage is we started this much earlier than other people. We have a very large private wealth organization. Joan Solotar and her team have done a terrific job. Many people around the world, we've built up relationships with financial advisers. And then I think the thing that is hard to capture in numbers is the power of the Blackstone brand. We were able to start products, it's no different than us doing insurance on a capital-light basis. Our ability to create new products and for financial advisers and their customers to allocate more to us because of the confidence in the brand is really important.

我們的主要競爭優勢是我們比其他人更早開始。我們有一個非常大的私人財富組織。瓊·索洛塔 (Joan Solotar) 和她的團隊做得非常出色。我們與世界各地的許多人建立了財務顧問的關係。我認為很難用數字來體現的是黑石品牌的力量。我們能夠推出產品，這與我們在輕資本的基礎上做保險沒有什麼不同。我們創造新產品的能力以及財務顧問及其客戶因對品牌的信心而向我們分配更多資金的能力非常重要。

And so the real consideration for us is when we launch a new product, we have to make sure the structure is right and that the returns we generate are sufficient. Because ultimately, this is a very long-term partnership with the financial advisers and their underlying clients. So what we do has to work. And that's why we're so focused and we're deliberate in terms of the way we launch new products. But we definitely see more opportunity over time.

所以我們真正考慮的是，當我們推出一個新產品時，我們必須確保結構是正確的，並且我們產生的回報是足夠的。因為歸根結底，這是與財務顧問及其潛在客戶的長期合作夥伴關係。所以我們所做的事情必須有效。這就是為什麼我們如此專注，並在推出新產品的方式上深思熟慮。但隨著時間的推移，我們肯定會看到更多的機會。

We'll go next to Rufus Hone with BMO Capital Markets.

接下來我們將採訪蒙特利爾銀行資本市場公司的魯弗斯·霍恩 (Rufus Hone)。

Maybe if you could spend a minute on the FRE margin. You've done 58% through the first half of 2023. How do you think about that through the back half of the year? And if you could give some color around the expense side, you've shown some discipline on the fee-related comp ratio. I guess, can you help us think about core expense growth through the rest of the year? Any detail there would be really helpful.

如果您能花一點時間了解一下 FRE 的利潤，也許可以。 2023 年上半年你已經完成了 58%。你如何看待今年下半年的情況？如果你能在費用方面給出一些顏色，你就已經在與費用相關的補償比率上表現出了一些紀律。我想，您能幫助我們思考今年剩餘時間的核心費用增長情況嗎？任何細節都會非常有幫助。

Sure, Rufus. Thanks for question. As we've said pretty consistently, we encourage everyone to look at full year periods, not intra-year quarterly periods with respect to margins. There's puts and takes from quarter-to-quarter in intra-year. So again, I'd say looking at full year 2023, we would just reiterate our prior comments around margin stability as compared to fiscal '22, the full year. In terms of components, I think you referenced this, recognizing that we reported other operating expense down 2% in Q2. And that we do think that we bring a pretty disciplined approach to managing our costs.

當然，魯弗斯。謝謝提問。正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們鼓勵每個人關注全年期間的利潤率，而不是年內季度期間的利潤率。年內每個季度都會有投入和支出。因此，我想說，展望 2023 年全年，我們只會重申我們之前關於與 22 財年全年相比的利潤率穩定性的評論。在組件方面，我認為您提到了這一點，並認識到我們報告的其他運營費用在第二季度下降了 2%。我們確實認為我們採用了非常嚴格的方法來管理成本。

There are a couple of caveats on that as you think about the second half. As you know, OpEx is seasonally higher in the second half typically. And also, OpEx growth in the first half of the year benefited from the absence of COVID costs in this first half versus the presence of it a year ago. And so we're all happy to say we're through those now. But the second half OpEx growth rate will not have that benefit. So that's a little bit of texture around it. But around both margin overall, comp ratio overall, I would just point you to the kind of full year period.

當你思考下半場時，有一些注意事項。如您所知，運營支出通常在下半年季節性較高。此外，上半年運營支出的增長得益於今年上半年沒有新冠肺炎成本（與一年前相比）。因此，我們很高興地說我們現在已經度過了這些難關。但下半年 OpEx 增長率將不會帶來這種好處。所以它周圍有一點紋理。但圍繞總體利潤率和總體補償比率，我只想向您指出全年的情況。

We'll go next to Arnaud Giblat with BNP.

接下來我們將與 BNP 一起前往 Arnaud Giblat。

If I could come back to private credit, you talked a lot about the golden moment here, it certainly looks like when we look at the yields and returns. I'm just wondering about deployment, which has been understandably slow. How does this evolve going forward? I suppose it's linked to capital markets healing, in which case, perhaps there's a comeback from the delevered loan market and more competition, so the market share shift. I'm just wondering how to think about that.

如果我能回到私人信貸，你在這裡談論了很多黃金時刻，當我們看看收益率和回報時，它看起來確實如此。我只是想知道部署的情況，這是可以理解的緩慢。未來將如何發展？我認為這與資本市場的複蘇有關，在這種情況下，也許去槓桿化的貸款市場會捲土重來，競爭也會更加激烈，因此市場份額會發生變化。我只是想知道如何思考這個問題。

So it's obviously tied to transaction volume. And as I said, we have begun to see a pickup, which should lead to an acceleration of deployment in credit. These things are tied together. And yes, when people get enthused about credit, the leveraged loan market could and should see more flows. But I do think there is a -- on the direct lending side, a structural advantage of private credit. Because if you don't need to distribute that, if you're in the storage business, you can deliver to the borrower, the private equity sponsor, price certainty.

所以它顯然與交易量有關。正如我所說，我們已經開始看到經濟復甦，這應該會導致信貸部署的加速。這些東西是聯繫在一起的。是的，當人們對信貸充滿熱情時，槓桿貸款市場可以而且應該看到更多的資金流。但我確實認為，在直接貸款方面，私人信貸具有結構性優勢。因為如果你不需要分配它，如果你從事存儲業務，你可以向借款人、私募股權發起人提供價格確定性。

And that's very hard for a financial institution, who is selling it down and obviously wants to manage their risk. I think where it becomes more competitive, is on existing loans, where somebody starts to look to refinance. And when spreads tighten at some point, that's where the leveraged loan market becomes more competitive, or the high-yield market, if people believe that long rates have come down and spreads have come down.

這對於金融機構來說非常困難，因為他們正在出售它，並且顯然想要管理風險。我認為，現有貸款變得更具競爭力，有人開始尋求再融資。當利差在某個時刻收緊時，如果人們相信長期利率已經下降並且利差也已經下降，那麼槓桿貸款市場或高收益市場的競爭就會變得更加激烈。

But in the new origination business, that's an area where I think direct lenders have a real sustainable advantage. It, I think, becomes more competitive for existing loans when at such time that the existing market tightens a fair amount. That hasn't happened yet, but that could in a better market. But overall, transaction activity, to your point, is obviously tied to originations. And when both those things pick up, we think that's a positive thing.

但在新的發起業務中，我認為直接貸款人擁有真正的可持續優勢。我認為，當現有市場收緊相當程度時，它對於現有貸款會變得更具競爭力。這種情況尚未發生，但在更好的市場中可能會發生。但總體而言，就您而言，交易活動顯然與起源相關。當這兩件事都好起來時，我們認為這是一件積極的事情。

There are no additional questions in queue at this time.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and look forward to following up after the call.

偉大的。謝謝大家今天加入我們，並期待在電話會議後跟進。