Blackstone Inc (BX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Blackstone Third Quarter 2022 Investor Call hosted by Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations. My name is Ben, and I'm your event manager. (Operator Instructions) I'd like to advise all parties that this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加由股東關係主管 Weston Tucker 主持的 Blackstone 2022 年第三季度投資者電話會議。我的名字是本，我是你的活動經理。 （操作員說明）我想通知各方，正在錄製本次會議以供重播。 （操作員說明）

And now I would like to hand it over to your host. Weston, the word is yours.

現在我想把它交給你的主人。韋斯頓，這個詞是你的。

Great. Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Blackstone's third quarter conference call. Joining today are Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. We expect to file our 10-Q report in a few weeks.

偉大的。謝謝 Ben，大家早上好，歡迎參加 Blackstone 第三季度電話會議。今天加入的有董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼（Steve Schwarzman）； Jon Gray，總裁兼首席運營官；和首席財務官 Michael Chae。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和幻燈片演示，可在我們的網站上找到。我們預計在幾週內提交我們的 10-Q 報告。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and outside of the firm's control and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. For a discussion of some of the risks that could affect results, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K. We'll also refer to non-GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the shareholders page of our website.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述不確定且超出公司的控制範圍，並且可能與實際結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何義務。有關可能影響結果的一些風險的討論，請參閱我們 10-K 的風險因素部分。我們還將參考非 GAAP 措施，您可以在我們網站股東頁面上的新聞稿中找到對賬。

Also, please note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent.

此外，請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成出售任何 Blackstone 基金的要約或徵求購買任何 Blackstone 基金權益的要約。此音頻廣播是 Blackstone 的受版權保護的材料，未經同意不得複制。

On results, we reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $4 million. Distributable earnings were $1.4 billion or $1.06 per common share, and we declared a dividend of $0.90 per common share, which will be paid to holders of record as of October 31.

在結果方面，我們報告了 400 萬美元的季度 GAAP 淨收入。可分配收益為 14 億美元或每股普通股 1.06 美元，我們宣布派發每股普通股 0.90 美元的股息，該股息將於 10 月 31 日支付給登記在冊的持有人。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thank you, Weston. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. The third quarter of 2022 was a continuation of one of the most difficult periods for markets in decades. Global markets extended the dramatic sell-off to characterize the first half of the year. The S&P 500 falling another 5%, bringing the year-to-date decline to 24%. The public REIT index was down 10% in just a quarter and 28% year-to-date. The NASDAQ fell 32% year-to-date. And in debt markets, high-grade and high-yield bonds declined 14% to 15% in the first 9 months of the year.

謝謝你，韋斯頓。早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話。 2022 年第三季度是市場幾十年來最困難時期之一的延續。全球市場延續了今年上半年的劇烈拋售。標準普爾 500 指數再次下跌 5%，使年初至今的跌幅達到 24%。公共房地產投資信託指數僅在一個季度就下跌了 10%，今年迄今下跌了 28%。納斯達克指數年初至今下跌了 32%。而在債務市場，高等級和高收益債券在今年前 9 個月下跌了 14% 至 15%。

High inflation, rising interest rates and a slowing economy, combined with ongoing geopolitical turmoil, have created an extremely difficult environment for investors to navigate. The traditional 60-40 portfolio is down over 20% year-to-date, its worst performance in nearly 50 years, and sentiment in almost all areas is likely to remain negative, given the Fed's commitment to continue increasing interest rates to combat inflation.

高通脹、利率上升和經濟放緩，加上持續的地緣政治動盪，為投資者創造了極其困難的環境。傳統的 60-40 投資組合今年迄今下跌超過 20%，是近 50 年來的最差表現，鑑於美聯儲承諾繼續提高利率以對抗通脹，幾乎所有領域的情緒都可能保持負面。

Against this highly challenging backdrop, Blackstone delivered excellent results for our shareholders. Fee-related earnings for the third quarter rose 51% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, representing our second best quarter on record. We generated strong distributable earnings of $1.4 billion or $1.06 a share, as Wes noted.

在這種極具挑戰性的背景下，Blackstone 為我們的股東帶來了出色的業績。第三季度與費用相關的收益同比增長 51% 至 12 億美元，是我們有記錄以來第二好的季度。正如韋斯所說，我們創造了 14 億美元或每股 1.06 美元的強勁可分配收益。

While most money managers focusing on liquid markets have seen declining AUM, we've continued to grow. Our assets under management increased 30% year-over-year to a record $951 billion, with strong demand for our products across the institutional, private wealth and insurance channels. Just last week, we announced our fourth major partnership in the insurance space with Resolution Life, a leading life and annuity block consolidator, which we expect to comprise approximately $25 billion of AUM in the first year and over $60 billion over time as their platform grows.

雖然大多數專注於流動市場的基金經理的 AUM 都在下降，但我們仍在繼續增長。我們管理的資產同比增長 30%，達到創紀錄的 9510 億美元，機構、私人財富和保險渠道對我們的產品的需求強勁。就在上週，我們宣布與領先的人壽和年金大宗整合商 Resolution Life 在保險領域建立第四個主要合作夥伴關係，我們預計第一年的 AUM 將達到約 250 億美元，隨著平台的發展，隨著時間的推移，我們預計將超過 600 億美元.

Key to Blackstone's success with our customers is that we have protected their capital through these remarkable market declines. One of our core principles since we founded the firm in 1985 is to avoid losing our clients' money, and we've done an excellent job of that. As the largest and most diverse alternatives firm in the world, we have unique access to data and insights on what is happening in the global economy, allowing us to anticipate trends and, we believe, minimize risk.

Blackstone 與客戶取得成功的關鍵在於，我們在這些顯著的市場下滑中保護了他們的資本。自 1985 年創立公司以來，我們的核心原則之一就是避免損失客戶的資金，我們在這方面做得非常出色。作為世界上最大和最多樣化的另類公司，我們擁有對全球經濟正在發生的事情的獨特數據和洞察力，使我們能夠預測趨勢，並相信可以將風險降到最低。

We then carefully choose sectors and which type of assets to buy and actively work to build great companies and platforms. We use this advantage as well to help determine areas of focus in the liquid securities area. This synergistic approach has led to distinctly strong positioning across our business today. For example, in real estate, approximately 80% of our portfolio is in sectors where rents are growing above the rate of inflation, including logistics, rental housing, life science office and hotels.

然後，我們仔細選擇要購買的行業和資產類型，並積極致力於建立偉大的公司和平台。我們也利用這一優勢來幫助確定流動證券領域的重點領域。這種協同的方法導致我們今天在業務中擁有明顯的強勢定位。例如，在房地產方面，我們約 80% 的投資組合位於租金增長高於通貨膨脹率的行業，包括物流、出租房屋、生命科學辦公室和酒店。

In corporate private equity, our emphasis on faster-growing companies has resulted in a 17% year-over-year revenue growth in our operating companies in the third quarter, led by our travel, leisure-related holdings at 17% growth in revenue as the economy is slowing all over the world. This is a stunning result, given the size of our portfolio which, in total, across our private equity business, employs approximately 500,000 people.

在企業私募股權方面，我們對增長較快的公司的重視使我們的運營公司在第三季度的收入同比增長了 17%，這主要是由於我們的旅遊、休閒相關控股公司的收入增長了 17%，因為世界各地的經濟都在放緩。這是一個驚人的結果，因為我們的投資組合規模龐大，在我們的私募股權業務中總共僱傭了大約 500,000 名員工。

In corporate and real estate credit, we benefit from close to 100% floating rate exposure, and we're experiencing negligible defaults. And our hedge fund solutions business is performing remarkably well with the BPS Composite achieving positive returns in the third quarter and every quarter so far in 2022. This is a highly differentiated outcome in liquid securities compared to the year-to-date decline of 24% in the S&P.

在企業和房地產信貸方面，我們受益於接近 100% 的浮動利率風險敞口，而且我們的違約率可以忽略不計。我們的對沖基金解決方案業務表現非常出色，BPS 綜合指數在第三季度和 2022 年迄今為止的每個季度都實現了正回報。與年初至今 24% 的跌幅相比，這是流動性證券的高度差異化結果在標準普爾。

Blackstone's long history of outperformance and capital protection is, of course, critically important to our LPs and their constituents. They have found it difficult to achieve their objectives by investing in traditional asset classes alone. That's why LPs around the world are choosing to increase allocations to alternatives, and in particular, to Blackstone.

當然，Blackstone 卓越表現和資本保護的悠久歷史對我們的 LP 及其成員而言至關重要。他們發現僅通過投資傳統資產類別很難實現其目標。這就是為什麼世界各地的有限合夥人選擇增加對替代品的分配，特別是對黑石的分配。

Recent research from Morgan Stanley estimates that private markets AUM will grow 12% annually over the next 5 years with shared growth in areas such as infrastructure, real estate and private credit as investors seek yield and inflation protection, all areas of distinctive competence here at Blackstone.

摩根士丹利最近的研究估計，隨著投資者尋求收益和通脹保護，私人市場的資產管理規模將在未來 5 年每年增長 12%，基礎設施、房地產和私人信貸等領域的共同增長，這些都是 Blackstone 的獨特能力領域.

From a channel perspective, Morgan Stanley predicts the greatest growth among individual investors, with allocations to alternatives from high net worth investors more than doubling in 5 years to 8% to 10% of their portfolios. This represents a major paradigm change when we identified over a decade ago and trillions of dollars of opportunity, which Jon will discuss in more detail. Blackstone is the clear leader in this channel with the largest market share among alternative managers.

從渠道的角度來看，摩根士丹利預測個人投資者的增長最快，高淨值投資者對另類投資的配置在 5 年內翻了一番多，達到其投資組合的 8% 至 10%。這代表了我們十多年前發現的重大範式變化和數万億美元的機會，喬恩將更詳細地討論這些機會。 Blackstone 顯然是該渠道的領導者，在另類經理中擁有最大的市場份額。

Blackstone occupies a special status with customers and potential customers around the world. They are facing significant uncertainties today and are looking to us to help them navigate these challenges, and we believe we are uniquely positioned to do so. We are proud of the trust that they place in us, and we remain steadfast in our mission to serve them.

Blackstone 在世界各地的客戶和潛在客戶中佔有特殊的地位。他們今天面臨著重大的不確定性，並希望我們幫助他們應對這些挑戰，我們相信我們在這方面處於獨特的地位。我們為他們對我們的信任感到自豪，我們將堅定不移地為他們服務。

In closing, our firm has prospered across the many cycles of the past 37 years since we started. We had no assets then. And today, we're closing in on $1 trillion of AUM. Historically, we've taken advantage of the pullbacks to deploy significant capital at attractive prices, extend our leadership position across business lines and invest in new initiatives as well as in our people. For our shareholders, this has translated into extraordinary growth, and we have no intention of slowing down.

最後，我們公司自成立以來在過去 37 年的許多周期中都取得了繁榮發展。那時我們沒有資產。而今天，我們正在接近 1 萬億美元的 AUM。從歷史上看，我們利用回調以具有吸引力的價格部署大量資本，擴大我們在各個業務領域的領導地位，並投資於新舉措以及我們的員工。對於我們的股東來說，這已經轉化為非凡的增長，我們無意放慢腳步。

We are in the early innings of penetrating new channels and markets with enormous potential. The firm's earnings power continues to expand, concentrated in the highest quality earnings. Even though the investment climate is challenging, we have the confidence, the resources and the loyalty of our customers and our people. We continue to develop our franchise for the benefit of all of our constituencies.

我們正處於進入具有巨大潛力的新渠道和市場的早期階段。公司的盈利能力不斷擴大，集中在最高質量的盈利上。儘管投資環境充滿挑戰，但我們擁有客戶和員工的信心、資源和忠誠度。我們將繼續發展我們的特許經營權，以造福我們所有的選民。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jon.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬恩。

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Our business is all about delivering for our customers in rain or shine, and the third quarter was no exception. Our investment performance again demonstrated the durability of our model along with the benefits of our thematic investing, as Steve highlighted. Meanwhile, the firm's strong results have allowed us to continue expanding who we serve and where we can invest even in the most difficult of times. I'll update you on the multiple avenues of growth we have in front of us.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家，早安。我們的業務就是為我們的客戶提供風雨無阻的服務，第三季度也不例外。正如史蒂夫強調的那樣，我們的投資業績再次證明了我們模型的耐用性以及主題投資的好處。同時，該公司的強勁業績使我們能夠繼續擴大我們的服務對像以及即使在最困難的時期我們也可以投資的領域。我將向您介紹我們面前的多種增長途徑。

Starting with our drawdown fund business. With the support of our LPs, we are progressing toward our $150 billion target with more than half achieved at this point. We've largely completed the fundraise for 2 of our 3 largest flagships, global real estate and private equity secondaries and have launched their respective investment periods. Our corporate private equity flagship has raised $14 billion to date, and we expect it to be at least as large as the prior fund.

從我們的提款基金業務開始。在我們 LP 的支持下，我們正在朝著 1500 億美元的目標前進，目前已經實現了一半以上。我們已經基本完成了對我們 3 家最大旗艦公司中的 2 家、全球房地產和私募股權二級公司的籌資，並啟動了各自的投資期。迄今為止，我們的企業私募股權旗艦已經籌集了 140 億美元，我們預計它至少與之前的基金一樣大。

In credit, we've closed on $4 billion for a new strategy focused on renewables and the energy transition and expect to reach our target of $6 billion to $7 billion in the coming quarters, we believe the largest private credit vehicle of its kind. This is an area where we see tremendous secular tailwinds and where we reported additional inflows in the quarter in growth equity, Tactical Opportunities and private equity energy. While the market environment will remain a headwind for the industry overall, we are in a differentiated position given the diversity of our platform, global reach and the power of our brand.

在信貸方面，我們已經為一項專注於可再生能源和能源轉型的新戰略籌集了 40 億美元，預計未來幾個季度將達到 60 億至 70 億美元的目標，我們相信這是同類中最大的私人信貸工具。在這個領域，我們看到了巨大的長期順風，並且我們報告了本季度增長股權、戰術機會和私募股權能源的額外流入。雖然市場環境仍將是整個行業的逆風，但鑑於我們平台的多樣性、全球影響力和我們品牌的力量，我們處於差異化的地位。

Turning to private wealth. One of the long-term megatrends transforming the market landscape is that individual investors are finally getting access to alternatives in a form and structure that works for them. This development has been led by Blackstone and our distribution partners, and the response has been powerful. We now manage $236 billion of private wealth AUM, up 43% in the past 12 months alone. In the third quarter, sales in this channel totaled $8 billion, including $6.6 billion for our perpetual vehicles. We do also offer limited repurchases in the perpetuals, which totaled $3.7 billion.

轉向私人財富。改變市場格局的長期大趨勢之一是個人投資者最終能夠以適合他們的形式和結構獲得替代品。這一發展由 Blackstone 和我們的分銷合作夥伴牽頭，反響強烈。我們現在管理著 2360 億美元的私人財富資產管理規模，僅在過去 12 個月內就增長了 43%。第三季度，該渠道的銷售額總計 80 億美元，其中包括我們的永久車輛的 66 億美元。我們還提供有限的永續合約回購，總額為 37 億美元。

As we discussed last quarter, stock market volatility meaningfully impacts net flows in these vehicles. That said, this is a vast and underpenetrated market, and our products have outstanding performance and positioning.

正如我們上個季度所討論的，股市波動對這些工具的淨流量產生了有意義的影響。也就是說，這是一個廣闊且未被充分滲透的市場，我們的產品具有出色的性能和定位。

BREIT's net returns since inception 6 years ago is 13% per year or 4x the public REIT index. Nearly 80% of BREIT's portfolio is comprised of logistics and rental housing, some of the best-performing sectors with short duration leases and rents outpacing inflation. BCRED has generated an 8% annual net return since inception and with a floating rate portfolio, returns benefit as interest rates move higher. Looking forward, we plan to launch more products in this channel, deepen penetration with existing partners and add new relationships around the world.

自 6 年前成立以來，BREIT 的淨回報為每年 13% 或公共 REIT 指數的 4 倍。 BREIT 近 80% 的投資組合由物流和出租房屋組成，這是一些表現最好的行業，租賃期限短，租金超過通脹。自成立以來，BCRED 已產生 8% 的年淨回報率，並且採用浮動利率投資組合，隨著利率走高，回報率受益。展望未來，我們計劃在該渠道推出更多產品，深化與現有合作夥伴的滲透，並在全球範圍內增加新的關係。

Moving to our institutional perpetual business, which is over $100 billion across 42 vehicles, up 37% year-over-year, including our institutional real estate Core+ platform and infrastructure. Our infrastructure business nearly doubled year-over-year to $31 billion on the back of excellent performance. Both platforms continue to benefit from their focus on hard assets in great sectors with strong fundamentals, helping drive positive appreciation in the quarter and year-to-date.

轉向我們的機構永久業務，該業務超過 1000 億美元，涵蓋 42 個工具，同比增長 37%，包括我們的機構房地產 Core+ 平台和基礎設施。憑藉出色的業績，我們的基礎設施業務同比幾乎翻了一番，達到 310 億美元。這兩個平台繼續受益於對基本面強勁的大行業硬資產的關注，有助於推動本季度和年初至今的積極升值。

Turning to insurance. Our AUM has doubled in the past 12 months to over $150 billion. We've now added a fourth large-scale mandate with Resolution Life, as Steve noted, which is one of the leading closed block consolidators servicing the multitrillion-dollar life and annuity market on a global basis. This is another example of our strategy to serve as an investment manager for multiple insurance clients without becoming an insurance company ourselves or taking on liabilities.

轉向保險。我們的資產管理規模在過去 12 個月翻了一番，達到超過 1500 億美元。正如史蒂夫所指出的那樣，我們現在已經增加了第四項大規模授權，Resolution Life 是在全球範圍內為數万億美元的人壽和年金市場提供服務的領先封閉式整合公司之一。這是我們作為多個保險客戶的投資經理而不自己成為保險公司或承擔責任的戰略的另一個例子。

Over time, we expect more than $250 billion of AUM from existing clients alone, several of which have an added tailwind from greatly accelerated annuity sales. Our deep investment expertise and capabilities in private credit in particular uniquely position us to serve insurance clients.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計僅現有客戶的 AUM 就會超過 2500 億美元，其中一些客戶的年金銷售速度大大加快。我們在私人信貸方面深厚的投資專業知識和能力尤其使我們能夠為保險客戶提供獨特的服務。

Stepping back, private credit represents another long-term megatrend in the alternative sector. We can leverage our expansive platform to directly originate yield-oriented investment products for our clients, including insurance companies as well as institutional and individual investors. And we see a particularly favorable environment for deployment today as base rates have increased significantly and spreads have widened, all while traditional sources of financing have pulled back.

退一步說，私人信貸代表了另類行業的另一個長期大趨勢。我們可以利用我們廣闊的平台為我們的客戶（包括保險公司以及機構和個人投資者）直接推出以收益為導向的投資產品。我們看到今天的部署環境特別有利，因為基準利率顯著提高，利差擴大，而傳統的融資來源已經回落。

With over $320 billion of AUM across our credit and real estate credit businesses, we've built one of the largest platforms in our industry but still comprise a tiny fraction of these markets overall. We are quite excited about the long-term potential.

我們的信貸和房地產信貸業務擁有超過 3,200 億美元的資產管理規模，我們已經建立了我們行業中最大的平台之一，但仍然只佔這些市場的一小部分。我們對長期潛力感到非常興奮。

Taken together, our diverse range of growth engines drove total inflows of $45 billion in the third quarter and a record $183 billion year-to-date, a period in which markets experienced some of the worst declines on record, as Steve discussed. These results, more than anything, speak to the strength of our brand and the trust our clients place in us. And with a record $182 billion of dry powder capital, we have the ability to take advantage of dislocations.

總而言之，我們多樣化的增長引擎在第三季度推動了 450 億美元的總流入，今年迄今達到了創紀錄的 1830 億美元，正如史蒂夫所討論的那樣，在這段時期，市場經歷了一些有記錄以來最嚴重的跌幅。這些結果最能說明我們的品牌實力和客戶對我們的信任。憑藉創紀錄的 1820 億美元的干粉資本，我們有能力利用錯位。

In closing, despite the many challenges of today's investment environment, we are well positioned to navigate the road ahead. I could not have more confidence in our firm and our people. For our shareholders, we continue to achieve significant growth while remaining true to our capital-light model, allowing us to return 100% of earnings over the past 5 years through dividends and share buybacks. We are totally focused on delivering for all of our stakeholders.

最後，儘管當今的投資環境面臨諸多挑戰，但我們仍處於有利地位，可以駕馭前進的道路。我對我們公司和我們的員工充滿信心。對於我們的股東，我們繼續實現顯著增長，同時保持我們的輕資本模式，使我們能夠通過股息和股票回購在過去 5 年中實現 100% 的收益回報。我們完全專注於為所有利益相關者提供服務。

And with that, I will turn things over to Michael.

有了這個，我會把事情交給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. The firm's third quarter results highlight a business model designed to provide resiliency in difficult markets. At the same time, we are advancing through the largest fundraising cycle in our history which, coupled with our expanding platform of perpetual capital strategies, is setting the foundation for a material step-up in FRE. I'll discuss each of these areas in more detail.

謝謝，喬恩，大家早上好。該公司的第三季度業績突出了一種旨在在困難市場中提供彈性的商業模式。與此同時，我們正在經歷我們歷史上最大的籌資週期，再加上我們不斷擴大的永續資本策略平台，正在為 FRE 的實質性提升奠定基礎。我將更詳細地討論這些領域中的每一個。

Starting with results. One of the best illustrations of the durability of our financial model is the continued powerful trajectory of fee-related earnings. In the third quarter, FRE increased 51% year-over-year to $1.2 billion or $0.98 per share, powered by 42% growth in fee revenues, along with significant margin expansion.

從結果開始。我們財務模型的持久性最好的例證之一是與費用相關的收入持續強勁的軌跡。第三季度，FRE 同比增長 51% 至 12 億美元或每股 0.98 美元，這得益於費用收入增長 42% 以及利潤率的顯著增長。

With respect to revenues, the firm's expansive breadth of growth engines lifted management fees to a record $1.6 billion, up 22% year-over-year and 4% sequentially from quarter 2. At the same time, the continued scaling of our perpetual strategies, combined with strong investment performance across those strategies, led to $372 million of fee-related performance revenues.

在收入方面，該公司廣泛的增長引擎將管理費用提升至創紀錄的 16 億美元，同比增長 22%，比第二季度環比增長 4%。與此同時，我們的永久戰略的持續擴展，再加上這些策略的強勁投資業績，帶來了 3.72 億美元的費用相關業績收入。

With respect to margins, FRE margin for the 9-month year-to-date period expanded nearly 100 basis points from the prior year comparable period to 56.5% and is tracking above our previous expectation. We now expect full year 2022 margin to be in the same 56% area, in line with 2021.

就利潤率而言，今年迄今 9 個月的 FRE 利潤率比去年同期增長了近 100 個基點，達到 56.5%，高於我們之前的預期。我們現在預計 2022 年全年的利潤率將保持在 56% 的範圍內，與 2021 年持平。

Distributable earnings were $1.4 billion in the third quarter, underpinned by the robust momentum in FRE. Net realizations declined year-over-year as the market environment unit activity levels as expected. While the backdrop for exits is likely to remain less favorable in the near term, one of the key attributes of our model is that we can focus on executing our operating plans and creating value for the long term, patiently waiting to identify the optimal opportunities for monetization.

在 FRE 強勁勢頭的支撐下，第三季度的可分配收益為 14 億美元。由於市場環境單位活動水平符合預期，淨實現同比下降。雖然退出的背景在短期內可能仍然不太有利，但我們模型的關鍵屬性之一是我們可以專注於執行我們的運營計劃和創造長期價值，耐心等待確定最佳機會貨幣化。

In the meantime, the firm's performance revenue potential continues to build. Performance revenue eligible AUM in the ground grew 26% year-over-year to a record $494 billion. Net accrued performance revenues on the balance sheet stand at $7.1 billion or nearly $6 per share, down over the past few quarters primarily due to record realization activity, but still double its level of 2 years ago.

與此同時，該公司的業績收入潛力繼續增強。符合業績收入要求的 AUM 同比增長 26%，達到創紀錄的 4940 億美元。資產負債表上的應計淨業績收入為 71 億美元或每股近 6 美元，在過去幾個季度中有所下降，主要是由於創紀錄的變現活動，但仍是兩年前水平的兩倍。

Moving to investment performance. As Steve noted, against the backdrop of continued pressure in global equity and credit markets, our funds protected investor capital. Core+ real estate, credit and BAAM appreciated 1% to 3% in the quarter. In corporate private equity and opportunistic real estate, values were largely stable, and Tac Opps saw modest depreciation of approximately 2%. These returns included the negative impact of currency translation for our non-U.S. holdings related to the stronger U.S. dollar.

轉向投資業績。正如史蒂夫所指出的，在全球股票和信貸市場持續承壓的背景下，我們的基金保護了投資者的資本。 Core+ 房地產、信貸和 BAAM 在本季度升值 1% 至 3%。在企業私募股權和投機性房地產中，價值基本穩定，Tac Opps 的貶值幅度約為 2%。這些回報包括貨幣換算對我們與美元走強相關的非美國持股的負面影響。

Few additional observations on our returns. First, in private equity, our portfolio of companies historically have been held at a meaningful discount to public comps in terms of valuation multiples, which continues to be true today. In alignment with that, in terms of outcomes, exits have occurred at a significant premium compared to unaffected carrying values.

對我們的回報幾乎沒有額外的觀察。首先，在私募股權方面，我們的公司投資組合在估值倍數方面歷來一直以低於公開股票的折扣價持有，今天仍然如此。與此一致，就結果而言，與未受影響的賬面價值相比，退出的溢價顯著。

Second, in real estate, in the context of rising interest rates, we've materially increased cap rate assumptions across the portfolio. Notwithstanding this impact, our real estate strategies have still seen strong appreciation year-to-date as cash flow growth and dividends have more than offset the impact of wider cap rates.

其次，在房地產領域，在利率上升的背景下，我們大幅提高了整個投資組合的上限利率假設。儘管有這種影響，但我們的房地產戰略今年迄今仍保持強勁升值，因為現金流增長和股息已遠遠抵消了更廣泛的上限利率的影響。

Turning to the outlook, which is characterized by the firm's continuing progression toward higher and more recurring earnings. As we highlighted last quarter, we expect the combination of our drawdown fundraising cycle along with the growing contribution from perpetual strategies to lead to a structural step-up in FRE over the next several years. In terms of the drawdown funds, we launched the investment period for the global real estate flagship in August with an effective 4-month fee holiday for first closers. We will launch other funds over time depending on deployment.

轉向前景，其特點是公司不斷向更高和更多經常性收益發展。正如我們上個季度所強調的那樣，我們預計我們的籌款週期與永續策略的貢獻不斷增加相結合，將導致未來幾年 FRE 的結構性提升。在提取資金方面，我們於 8 月啟動了全球房地產旗艦的投資期，並為首次關閉者提供了 4 個月的有效費用假期。隨著時間的推移，我們將根據部署推出其他基金。

With respect to perpetual strategies, we previously discussed the layering effect of fee-related performance revenues and noted that BPP in particular has 4x more AUM subject to crystallization in 2023 than in 2022. At the same time, the private wealth perpetual vehicles have continued to compound in value with fee-earning AUM increasing $27 billion at the start of this year and $94 billion in total, setting a higher baseline for fee revenues going forward. As Jon described, these vehicles remain exceptionally well positioned.

關於永續策略，我們之前討論了與費用相關的業績收入的分層效應，並註意到 BPP 2023 年的 AUM 是 2022 年的 4 倍。與此同時，私人財富永續工具繼續今年年初，收費資產管理規模增加了 270 億美元，總計 940 億美元，為未來的收費收入設定了更高的基準。正如喬恩所描述的，這些車輛的定位非常好。

And for BCRED specifically, it's worth highlighting that the driver of fee-related performance revenues is investment income, borrowers paying interest, which has a high degree of visibility. Overall, the dual catalyst of our drawdown fundraising cycle and the ongoing perpetualization of our business give us confidence in the multiyear outlook for FRE.

特別是對於 BCRED，值得強調的是，與費用相關的績效收入的驅動力是投資收入，借款人支付利息，具有很高的知名度。總體而言，我們縮減籌款週期的雙重催化劑和我們業務的持續永續化使我們對 FRE 的多年前景充滿信心。

One final item of note. Last month, our insurance client, Corebridge, successfully completed its IPO despite the extremely difficult capital markets backdrop. This represented an important milestone in their evolution as a stand-alone public company. Blackstone was not a seller in the offering nor was Corebridge, and we are committed to being shareholders for years to come. We have a very positive view on the value of the company, including the expected benefits from increasing base rates and widening spreads. We have been pleased with the success of our partnership to date and look forward to continuing to deliver for them as their exclusive investment manager for key asset classes.

最後一個注意事項。上個月，我們的保險客戶Corebridge在資本市場異常艱難的情況下成功完成了首次公開募股。這代表了他們作為獨立上市公司發展的一個重要里程碑。 Blackstone 不是此次發行的賣方，Corebridge 也不是，我們致力於在未來幾年成為股東。我們對公司的價值持非常積極的看法，包括提高基準利率和擴大利差帶來的預期收益。迄今為止，我們對我們合作夥伴關係的成功感到高興，並期待繼續為他們提供關鍵資產類別的獨家投資經理。

In closing, the firm is in an excellent position today. Our all-weather model protects us in times of stress and provides a powerful foundation for future growth. We have great confidence in what the firm will achieve in the years ahead.

最後，該公司今天處於有利地位。我們的全天候模型在壓力時期保護我們，並為未來的增長提供強大的基礎。我們對公司在未來幾年將取得的成就充滿信心。

With that, we thank you for joining the call and would like to open it up now for questions.

有了這個，我們感謝您加入電話會議，並希望現在打開它以提問。

(Operator Instructions) And with that, I would like to proceed to our first question, which is coming from Craig Siegenthaler from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）然後，我想繼續我們的第一個問題，該問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

My question is on fundraising. There's been multiple headwinds this year with the crowded private equity backdrop denominator effect and, it seems, some weakness with U.S. pension plans, although probably more strength from sovereign wealth funds. But we haven't seen this really impact Blackstone's results yet with strong fundraising again last quarter. Can you provide us an update on the fundraising front and Blackstone's overall ability to grow organically if the bear market extends into next year?

我的問題是關於籌款的。今年出現了多重不利因素，因為擁擠的私募股權背景分母效應，而且美國養老金計劃似乎有些疲軟，儘管主權財富基金的實力可能更大。但我們還沒有看到這對黑石集團的業績產生真正的影響，上個季度再次進行了強勁的籌款活動。如果熊市延續到明年，您能否向我們提供有關籌款方面的最新信息以及 Blackstone 的整體有機增長能力？

So Craig, I think it's worth starting with our quarter and the first 9 months. I mean the fact that we raised $45 billion in the quarter, $183 billion in the first 9 months, which is 60% higher than our previous best in an environment when equities were down 25% and bonds down 15% is pretty remarkable. And I think what it reflects, of course, is our long-term track record delivering for customers, the power of our brand, the breadth of what we're doing today, obviously, the expansion into these new areas in insurance, in Core+ real estate, in direct lending, alternative fixed income and then continuing to grow our traditional drawdown business as well where we move into new spaces like life sciences and growth equity, continue to grow our original businesses.

所以克雷格，我認為值得從我們的季度和前 9 個月開始。我的意思是，我們在本季度籌集了 450 億美元，前 9 個月籌集了 1830 億美元，這比我們之前在股市下跌 25%、債券下跌 15% 的環境中的最高水平高出 60%，這一點非常了不起。我認為它反映的當然是我們為客戶提供的長期業績記錄、我們品牌的力量、我們今天所做的工作的廣度，顯然，在 Core+ 中向這些新的保險領域的擴張房地產，直接貸款，替代固定收益，然後繼續發展我們的傳統提款業務，以及我們進入生命科學和增長股權等新領域，繼續發展我們的原始業務。

And so what you see is sort of a growing platform built on the backbone of successful performance and then exploiting all these new channels. And then geographically, I think unlike some other managers, we've got the benefit of raising money in the U.S. but also around the world and other regions that are not as capital-constrained. And all of that has led to our strong performance.

因此，您所看到的是一個不斷發展的平台，建立在成功績效的基礎上，然後利用所有這些新渠道。然後在地理上，我認為與其他一些經理不同，我們受益於在美國以及世界各地和其他不受資本限制的地區籌集資金。所有這些都導致了我們的強勁表現。

To your specific question, I would acknowledge, it's harder out there. Investors are more capital-constrained. I think it will be tougher for many groups to raise capital, and that will be, until markets get better, a bit tougher.

對於你的具體問題，我承認，那裡更難。投資者更受資本約束。我認為對許多團體來說，籌集資金會更加困難，而且在市場好轉之前，會更加艱難。

But I would say, overall, when you talk to our customers, you don't hear a lot saying they want to reduce their allocation to alternatives. They've got a favorable view. It's been their best performing area. They may be a bit constrained by the denominator effect today, but they want to continue with this. And then for us, we've got this differentiated spot. So tougher, but we feel very good about where we sit.

但我想說，總的來說，當你與我們的客戶交談時，你不會聽到很多人說他們想減少對替代品的分配。他們有一個有利的看法。這是他們表現最好的領域。他們今天可能會受到分母效應的限制，但他們想繼續這樣做。然後對我們來說，我們有這個與眾不同的地方。如此艱難，但我們對自己的坐姿感覺非常好。

Yes. I'd just add that starting from our -- this is Steve. From our first fund in 1987, we have a very significant component of non-U.S. investors. And I think at a time when the U.S. is less favorable because of the factors you mentioned in the pension funds, the fact that we are so global for so long, those type of relationships tend to be enduring and personal because people are coming from foreign countries and foreign cultures.

是的。我只是從我們的開始添加-這是史蒂夫。從 1987 年我們的第一隻基金開始，我們就擁有非常重要的非美國投資者組成部分。而且我認為在美國由於您在養老基金中提到的因素而不太有利的時候，事實上我們已經如此全球化了這麼長時間，這些類型的關係往往是持久的和個人的，因為人們來自國外國家和外國文化。

And when they decide that they want to trust you to make significant commitments and then you deliver time after time after time, there's a certain bond that you have. And the flows, as Jon mentioned, have been more directed outside the United States, and that gives us just a terrific balance of where we can go to raise money.

當他們決定信任你做出重大承諾，然後你一次又一次地交付時，你就有了一定的聯繫。正如喬恩所提到的，資金流更多地指向美國以外的地方，這讓我們在可以去哪裡籌集資金方面取得了非常好的平衡。

Thank you. And Ben, before we move on to the next question, if I could just clarify the operator's instructions. We have a long queue, and I would want to make sure we get to everyone. (Operator Instructions) I just want to make sure we get to everyone this morning.

謝謝你。還有本，在我們繼續討論下一個問題之前，請我澄清一下操作員的指示。我們排了很長的隊，我想確保我們能到達每個人。 （操作員說明）我只是想確保我們今天早上能聯繫到每個人。

Our next question is coming from Ben Budish from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Budish。

I wanted to ask about kind of your outlook for the underlying portfolio of companies. Jon, I know you gave some commentary this morning that there's a little bit more caution than you guys kind of mentioned in the prepared remarks that there's a bit of a skew towards travel and leisure, which are a bit more discretionary. So can you maybe comment on how you see performance there over the next 6 to 12 months?

我想問一下您對基礎公司投資組合的看法。喬恩，我知道你今天早上發表了一些評論，比你們在準備好的評論中提到的更謹慎一點，即對旅行和休閒有一點偏向，這更自由一些。那麼您能否評論一下您如何看待未來 6 到 12 個月的表現？

So as I said, what's remarkable is the U.S. economy, in particular, has been very strong. Europe has held up better than people expected, Places like India are strong. As a data point here, the fact that we saw 17% revenue growth in our private equity portfolio says something, I think, pretty profound that there's still a lot of strength, and it also reflects that sector selection. So the fact that we've done so much in private equity, in travel and leisure bodes well for us.

所以正如我所說，值得注意的是美國經濟特別強勁。歐洲的表現比人們預期的要好，像印度這樣的地方很強大。作為這裡的一個數據點，我們在私募股權投資組合中看到 17% 的收入增長這一事實在我看來非常深刻地表明仍然有很大的實力，這也反映了行業的選擇。因此，我們在私募股權、旅遊和休閒方面做了這麼多的事實對我們來說是個好兆頭。

Our energy infrastructure, energy transition assets are all doing quite well. I think where we've positioned ourselves has helped us. And it's similar for us in the real estate market, as Michael commented on, the positioning in such a big way in logistics and then rental housing, hotels, all areas with strong growth.

我們的能源基礎設施、能源轉型資產都做得很好。我認為我們自己的定位對我們有所幫助。正如邁克爾評論的那樣，我們在房地產市場上也是如此，在物流、租賃住房、酒店等所有增長強勁的領域中如此大的定位。

Overall, back to your comment, we do think we'll see a slowdown there. It's just inevitable. When you take the cost of capital from 0% to 4% and debt capital widens even more with spreads widening, people start to think about deleveraging, paying down their debt. They're less focused on expansion. There's more caution, and that's going to lead to a slowing that will happen over time. And that's what we're anticipating, and that's what we're telling our companies. So I think that's something that all companies need to think about.

總的來說，回到你的評論，我們確實認為我們會看到那裡的放緩。這是不可避免的。當您將資本成本從 0% 降至 4% 並且債務資本隨著利差擴大而進一步擴大時，人們開始考慮去槓桿化，償還債務。他們不太關注擴張。有更多的謹慎，這將導致隨著時間的推移會發生放緩。這就是我們所期待的，也是我們告訴我們的公司的。所以我認為這是所有公司都需要考慮的事情。

In terms of how severe it is, I think it's hard to say. What I would comment on is we're in a much better spot as a global economy than we were back in '08, '09. We don't have the same kind of overleverage we had back then in housing, in commercial real estate, in banking institutions. So that makes you feel better, but there's no question, there is a slowing coming here. We should anticipate that. And obviously, the stock market has been thinking about that.

至於嚴重程度，我覺得很難說。我要評論的是，作為一個全球經濟體，我們的處境比 08 年和 09 年要好得多。我們在房地產、商業房地產和銀行機構中沒有像當時那樣的過度槓桿化。所以這會讓你感覺更好，但毫無疑問，這裡會放緩。我們應該預料到這一點。顯然，股市一直在考慮這一點。

The following question comes from Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley.

以下問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys。

I wanted to ask about the U.K. and Europe. We've seen some very sharp moves in currency and interest rates there. So just curious how you see the opportunity set there evolving for putting capital to work. Is now the time for buying trophy properties or companies in the U.K. or Europe? And also, we've seen some funds that implement LDI strategies become forced sellers of assets. Just curious what you're seeing on that front and what sort of opportunity set that might offer for you.

我想問一下英國和歐洲。我們已經看到那裡的貨幣和利率出現了一些非常劇烈的波動。所以只是好奇你如何看待那裡的機會不斷演變，讓資本發揮作用。現在是在英國或歐洲購買獎杯房產或公司的時候了嗎？此外，我們還看到一些實施 LDI 策略的基金被迫出售資產。只是好奇你在這方面看到了什麼，以及可能為你提供什麼樣的機會。

Thanks, Mike. Obviously, the U.K. and Europe face some real challenges in the near term. There is the inflation challenge driven by their energy challenges, which are much more pronounced than what we have in the United States. Their central banks need to raise rates in order to maintain their currencies and not have further inflation. In addition, as they raise rates, their housing markets, many of them tend to have floating rate mortgages versus our 30-year fixed rate model, which puts additional pressure on the European economies.

謝謝，邁克。顯然，英國和歐洲在短期內面臨著一些真正的挑戰。他們的能源挑戰引發了通貨膨脹挑戰，這比我們在美國的情況要明顯得多。他們的中央銀行需要提高利率以維持其貨幣並避免進一步的通貨膨脹。此外，隨著他們提高利率，他們的住房市場中的許多人傾向於採用浮動利率抵押貸款，而不是我們的 30 年固定利率模型，這給歐洲經濟帶來了額外的壓力。

I would say, to date, things have held up better, and our companies have performed better than you would expect. Companies are adapting to the higher energy prices and their usage and efficiency. But it is going to be a challenging period.

我想說，到目前為止，情況一直好一些，我們公司的表現也比你預期的要好。公司正在適應更高的能源價格及其使用和效率。但這將是一個充滿挑戰的時期。

I think as investors, what you have to overlay against that is just how much the currencies have moved and how much the valuations have moved down. You've seen currency movements here of nearly 20% in Europe and the U.K. And you look at the U.K., in particular, the stock market there is trading at below 9x earnings.

我認為作為投資者，你需要考慮的是貨幣變動了多少，估值下降了多少。你已經看到歐洲和英國近 20% 的貨幣波動。你看看英國，特別是，那裡的股票市場的市盈率低於 9 倍。

So we look at that and say, wow, these are interesting places. A bunch of the thematic trends we like could be around travel, could be around technology, infrastructure, logistics. There are still attractive assets in Continental Europe and the U.K. and you have prices and investor enthusiasm has gone down. And so to us, that makes for an attractive entry point. Sometimes it takes time for these things to manifest themselves. But we think we'll be busy in Europe over the next few years.

所以我們看著那個說，哇，這些地方很有趣。我們喜歡的一系列主題趨勢可能與旅行有關，可能與技術、基礎設施、物流有關。歐洲大陸和英國仍然有有吸引力的資產，而且價格和投資者的熱情已經下降。所以對我們來說，這是一個有吸引力的切入點。有時這些事情需要時間才能顯現出來。但我們認為未來幾年我們將在歐洲忙碌。

I would say on the LDI question, in particular, there was some selling, as you know, of CLO paper. We, like others, participated in that. It seems to have abated at this point. But I wouldn't be surprised, as rates move up, that there are other forced sellers as pressure grows in the system.

我想說的是，關於 LDI 問題，如你所知，特別是 CLO 紙有一些銷售。我們和其他人一樣，也參與其中。此刻，似乎有所減弱。但我不會感到驚訝，隨著利率上升，隨著系統壓力的增加，還有其他被迫賣家。

And then back to our model, $182 billion of dry powder, the ability to make decisions really quickly, to move quickly when there are periods of dislocation. It happened back in Brexit. It happened back in '08, '09. We try to take the opportunity to deploy capital on behalf of our investors. So I think you have to be cognizant of the economic challenges in Europe but open-minded to the opportunities given the repricing that's underway there.

然後回到我們的模型，價值 1820 億美元的干粉，能夠非常迅速地做出決策，在出現錯位時迅速行動。它發生在英國脫歐。它發生在 08 年，09 年。我們試圖藉此機會代表我們的投資者部署資金。所以我認為你必須認識到歐洲的經濟挑戰，但考慮到那裡正在進行的重新定價，對機會持開放態度。

The following question comes from Brian Bedell from Deutsche Bank.

以下問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Maybe just wanted to touch on the energy transition, Jon, that you mentioned, the successful raising of the private credit green energy strategy. I guess maybe talk a little bit about that strategy in general in terms of that investment opportunity set. And then are you seeing demand come more from retail in this product? Or is this really more traditional? And I know you bake in ESG considerations across the investment processes across all investments, but what is the desire to expand a more dedicated impact energy transition platform across all the verticals?

也許只是想談談能源轉型，喬恩，你提到的私人信貸綠色能源戰略的成功提出。我想也許就投資機會集而言，大概談談該策略。然後您是否看到該產品的零售需求更多？或者這真的更傳統嗎？而且我知道您在所有投資的投資流程中都考慮了 ESG，但是在所有垂直領域擴展一個更專業的影響能源轉型平台的願望是什麼？

Thank you, Brian. What I would say this area is about for us is providing credit to this enormous energy transition that is underway. So if you think about the trillions of dollars that need to be spent to move us from 85% dependency in the U.S., a little bit lower in Europe, on hydrocarbons to a lower number, it's going to require a lot of equity. It's going to require a lot of debt.

謝謝你，布賴恩。我想說的是，這個領域對我們來說是為正在進行的巨大能源轉型提供信任。因此，如果您考慮需要花費數万億美元才能將我們從美國對碳氫化合物的 85%（在歐洲稍微低一點）的依賴降低到較低的數量，這將需要大量的股權。這將需要大量的債務。

To us, the

對我們來說，

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

form of financing is not necessarily financing finished projects, which liquid investors will pay, will -- [except] very (inaudible) for in order to hit their net-zero targets. We think if you back developers, as we've been doing successfully of projects, if you lend to some of the service providers in the space, if you lend to consumers, we've been very active in providing financing since -- in the solar market to consumers. We think this is a good way to go because there's an enormous need for capital.

融資形式不一定是為完成的項目提供資金，流動性投資者將支付這些資金，將 - [除了] 非常（聽不清）以實現其淨零目標。我們認為，如果您支持開發人員，正如我們在項目中所做的那樣，如果您向該領域的一些服務提供商提供貸款，如果您向消費者提供貸款，那麼我們一直非常積極地提供融資，因為 - 在太陽能市場的消費者。我們認為這是一條好路，因為對資金的需求巨大。

And so we're excited about (inaudible). We're also excited about our energy equity area as well for similar reasons because of the need for capital. And in our [infrastructure,] we've been doing a lot. We made a large investment we talked about 6 months ago in Invenergy, which is the largest builder of solar and wind projects in the United States.

所以我們很興奮（聽不清）。由於需要資金，我們也出於類似的原因對我們的能源股權領域感到興奮。在我們的 [基礎設施] 中，我們已經做了很多工作。我們在 6 個月前談到了對 Invenergy 的大筆投資，Invenergy 是美國最大的太陽能和風能項目建造商。

I would say, as it relates to ESG overall, the driver for us is being a fiduciary and [delivering] to our customers. They're focused on this area. We also see a big opportunity set because of the need for both debt and equity capital. We think we're [building a new] platform and ecosystem. We said publicly, we want to invest $100 billion in this area across our various platforms over the next decade. I think we can do that and generate favorable returns. So I'd say it's an exciting area that is still in the early days of its expansion.

我想說，由於它與整體 ESG 相關，我們的驅動力是成為受託人並 [交付] 給我們的客戶。他們專注於這個領域。由於對債務和股權資本的需求，我們還看到了巨大的機遇。我們認為我們正在 [建立一個新的] 平台和生態系統。我們公開表示，我們希望在未來十年內通過我們的各種平台在這一領域投資 1000 億美元。我認為我們可以做到這一點並產生可觀的回報。所以我想說這是一個令人興奮的領域，但仍處於擴張的早期階段。

Moving to our next question from Alexander Blostein from Goldman Sachs.

轉到高盛的 Alexander Blostein 的下一個問題。

I was hoping we could spend a couple of minutes on real estate as a concern in the public market is seen where those shares are trading for public REITs. Jon, you've been very clear in terms of how Blackstone's portfolio is different and [differentiate] yourself staying short duration and leading into areas of secular growth. I'm curious from a fundraising perspective, how are institutional (inaudible) real estate today in the context of kind of private markets allocation broadly. With rates, I guess, where they are today, why is real estate still an interesting place to

我希望我們可以在房地產上花幾分鐘時間，因為在公開市場上可以看到這些股票在哪些地方交易公共房地產投資信託基金。喬恩，您已經非常清楚 Blackstone 的投資組合有何不同，以及如何[區分] 自己保持短期並引領長期增長領域。從籌款的角度來看，我很好奇，在廣泛的私人市場分配背景下，今天的機構（聽不清）房地產如何。有了利率，我想，他們今天在哪裡，為什麼房地產仍然是一個有趣的地方

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

particularly around core product? And as you think about the forward growth for Blackstone and real estate, outside of the opportunistic funds, how do you envision those

特別是圍繞核心產品？當您考慮黑石和房地產的未來增長時，在機會主義基金之外，您如何看待這些

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

next, call it, 18 to 24 months?

接下來，叫它，18 到 24 個月？

Thanks, Alex. I guess I'd step back and say the [reason why] hard assets are interesting in an environment like this is because the replacement cost goes up pretty significantly. In an inflationary environment, the cost to build, the labor cost, which is a big component, has gone up, and probably the largest [input cost] of money goes up significantly. And the yield on cost that you need to build a new project goes up.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。我想我會退後一步，說 [原因] 硬資產在這樣的環境中很有趣，因為重置成本顯著上升。在通貨膨脹的環境下，建設成本，作為一個重要組成部分的勞動力成本上升了，可能最大的資金[投入成本]大幅上升。並且你需要建立一個新項目的成本收益會上升。

So I was talking to a major apartment developer who builds -- 15,000 units, he has under construction today. He said [next]

所以我正在和一個主要的公寓開發商交談，他建造了 15,000 個單元，他今天正在建設中。他說[下一個]

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

he's cutting his budget to 4,000 units, a 75% decline in terms of his new construction. So what you see [happening] in an environment like this is you start to see a reduction in new supply, which is obviously helpful in the long term, and these hard [assets] are beneficial because they don't have much exposure to input costs and there's going to be fewer of them, as I said, built. So [that]

他將預算削減至 4,000 套，新建築減少了 75%。所以你在這樣的環境中看到[發生]的是你開始看到新供應的減少，這從長遠來看顯然是有幫助的，而這些硬[資產]是有益的，因為它們沒有太多的投入正如我所說，建造的成本將會減少。以便]

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

argument for investing into hard assets.

投資硬資產的論據。

The challenge, of course, is in a rising rate environment, if you own a hard [asset]

當然，挑戰是在利率上升的環境中，如果您擁有硬 [資產]

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

[feels] like a bond or worse, an older office building, then I think you're going to see a challenge to [value] because the income is not growing much and rates have gone up.

[感覺] 像是一種債券，或者更糟的是，一座舊辦公樓，那麼我認為你會看到 [價值] 的挑戰，因為收入增長不多，而且利率上升了。

On the other hand, if you're in rental housing and you have pricing power or logistics, where we're still seeing in the U.S. 30% increases in rents, in Europe, nearly 20% increases in rents. The duration (inaudible). Even if the cap rates go up, you can still see value appreciation, albeit at a lower rate.

另一方面，如果你在出租房屋中並且你有定價權或物流，我們仍然看到美國的租金上漲了 30%，在歐洲，租金上漲了近 20%。持續時間（聽不清）。即使上限利率上升，您仍然可以看到價值升值，儘管速度較低。

So as it relates to [institutions,] yes, they become more cautious in this environment so they don't allocate quite as much. They pause. We've seen this before. But [I think] as you get to the other side of this, healthy real estate fundamentals -- and by the way, unlike almost every other down cycle, what we have going into this, particularly [logistics] and rental housing, is low rates of vacancy and limited new supply and a lot less leverage. So we go into this in a better (inaudible).

因此，當它與 [機構] 相關時，是的，他們在這種環境下變得更加謹慎，因此他們不會分配那麼多。他們停下來。我們以前見過這種情況。但是[我認為]當你走到另一邊時，健康的房地產基本面——順便說一下，與幾乎所有其他下行週期不同，我們在這方面所做的工作，特別是[物流]和出租房屋，是低的空置率和有限的新供應以及更少的槓桿。因此，我們以更好的方式（聽不清）進行討論。

And then as a result, we start to see this sharp decline in new supply. It should be even better coming out. So I think [long-term] assets, real estate, which is obviously a big area of focus for us, it is a really good area to be in.

結果，我們開始看到新供應量急劇下降。出來應該會更好。所以我認為[長期]資產，房地產，這顯然是我們關注的一大領域，這是一個非常好的領域。

And then I would just say, obviously, we have a (inaudible). We're -- our scale is larger than anyone else in the world. We see more on the ground than anybody. We have access to capital, both debt [and equity.] So it's an area we continue to have a lot of confidence in even if there are some near-term headwinds.

然後我只想說，顯然，我們有一個（聽不清）。我們——我們的規模比世界上任何其他人都大。我們在實地看到的比任何人都多。我們可以獲得資本，包括債務[和股權]。因此，即使近期存在一些不利因素，我們仍然對這一領域充滿信心。

The following question comes from Gerry O'Hara from Jefferies.

以下問題來自 Jefferies 的 Gerry O'Hara。

Just maybe sticking with the rate (inaudible)

只是可能堅持利率（聽不清）

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

up on some question around a comment Steve made earlier. But can you kind of talk broadly a little bit about how the rising rate environment could potentially put pressure on the LP dynamics from -- I mean, from an LP -- and I'm thinking about kind of getting more attractive rate exposure from fixed income and relative to less liquid private markets, just kind of -- would be curious to get some color on how that dynamic might play out going forward.

圍繞史蒂夫早些時候發表的評論提出一些問題。但是，您能否廣泛談談利率上升環境如何可能對 LP 動態施加壓力——我的意思是，來自 LP——我正在考慮從固定利率風險敞口中獲得更具吸引力的風險敞口收入和相對於流動性較差的私人市場，只是有點好奇，想知道這種動態未來會如何發揮作用。

Well, it does, I think, impact some investors. Fixed income starts to look more attractive. But if you think about our clients and their long-term obligations, the rates they want to produce are generally above investment-grade fixed income. And so I don't think they can move their portfolios out of alternatives in a meaningful way. It has been their best-performing sector.

嗯，我認為它確實會影響一些投資者。固定收益開始看起來更具吸引力。但是，如果您考慮我們的客戶及其長期義務，他們想要產生的利率通常高於投資級固定收益。所以我認為他們不能以有意義的方式將他們的投資組合從替代品中移出。這是他們表現最好的部門。

And if anything, what they may say is, "You know what, I'm really interested in private credit because I get the benefit of short-duration income as the Fed raises rates. So Blackstone, I'm interested in doing that. That's attractive. I'm interested potentially in infrastructure because it's got inflation hedges and income streams that are often tied to CPI or RPI in Europe. And so I'm interested in that."

如果有的話，他們可能會說，“你知道嗎，我對私人信貸非常感興趣，因為隨著美聯儲加息，我從短期收入中受益。所以黑石，我有興趣這樣做。這很有吸引力。我可能對基礎設施感興趣，因為它有通脹對沖和收入流，通常與歐洲的 CPI 或 RPI 掛鉤。所以我對此很感興趣。”

We haven't really seen a movement out of the complex. We still see people interested in the sector. The composition of where they allocate could change. But the other thing I'd say about our investors is they've been at this a long time, the institutional ones in particular, and they don't want to just be procyclical. So they know that to leave growth equity after the tech market sold off in a big way doesn't make a ton of sense. The same thing in private equity. And if you went back to the early 2000s, you went back to '08, '09, leaving these sectors at the time prices go down is not the best decision.

我們還沒有真正看到這個綜合體的運動。我們仍然看到人們對該行業感興趣。他們分配的地方的構成可能會改變。但我要對我們的投資者說的另一件事是，他們已經參與了很長時間，特別是機構投資者，他們不想只是順週期性。所以他們知道，在科技市場大幅拋售後離開增長股並沒有多大意義。私募股權也是如此。如果你回到 2000 年代初，你又回到了 08 年、09 年，在價格下跌的時候離開這些行業並不是最好的決定。

So I'd say they take a longer-term view. They're sticking with what they've done. They may reallocate a little bit. I think private credit will be a beneficiary, and that's something obviously we do in scale. But I don't see any sort of large-scale movement away from this very attractive asset class.

所以我會說他們有長遠的眼光。他們堅持他們所做的。他們可能會重新分配一點。我認為私人信貸將成為受益者，這顯然是我們在規模上所做的事情。但我沒有看到任何形式的大規模撤離這個非常有吸引力的資產類別。

The next question comes from Bill Katz from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的比爾卡茨。

Maybe one for Michael to mix up a little bit. Just want to unpack your discussion on the FRE margin at 56.5%, which sounds like a bit of a pickup in guidance. Can we unpack that a little bit just between how you sort of see the FRE dynamics if you were to strip out the performance fee-related contribution? And maybe if you could comment on just sort of the base payout rate, the comp payout rate. This quarter looked like it was particularly low ex performance fees. And how do you sort of see the 2 payout ratios into the new year?

也許邁克爾有點混淆了。只是想展開您對 56.5% 的 FRE 利潤率的討論，這聽起來有點像是在指導。如果您要剔除與績效費用相關的貢獻，我們能否在您對 FRE 動態的看法之間展開一點？也許你可以評論一下基本支付率，即補償支付率。本季度看起來像是特別低的前績效費用。您如何看待新一年的兩個派息率？

Sure, Bill. Look, I think, as you know, we always encourage folks to look at margins over longer time frames, not just a single quarter, given interior movements and puts and takes in any period. And so as I said and framed on the -- in my remarks, on a 9-month year-to-date basis, margin is up 100 basis points.

當然，比爾。看，我認為，如您所知，我們總是鼓勵人們在更長的時間範圍內查看利潤，而不僅僅是一個季度，考慮到內部運動以及任何時期的買入和賣出。因此，正如我所說和構想的那樣——在我的評論中，從年初至今的 9 個月內，保證金上升了 100 個基點。

And in terms of the key drivers, which is getting at your question on the expense side, just to unpack it, with respect to compensation expense, similarly, looking at that on a year-to-date basis, our comp ratio is stable. It's right in line with the year ago, maybe within 30 basis points.

就關鍵驅動因素而言，這是在費用方面解決您的問題，只是為了拆開它，在補償費用方面，同樣，從年初至今來看，我們的補償比率是穩定的。它與一年前一致，可能在 30 個基點之內。

And then in terms of OpEx, noncomp operating expense, it actually declined quarter-over-quarter about 6% driven by a range of factors. T&E, which we talked about in the past couple of quarters, is still higher than a year ago, but it's actually down quarter-over-quarter, and other factors.

然後就 OpEx 和非comp 運營費用而言，在一系列因素的推動下，它實際上環比下降了約 6%。我們在過去幾個季度談到的 T&E 仍高於一年前，但實際上環比下降以及其他因素。

So overall, I think what this reflects is a few things: very strong year-over-year and good quarter-over-quarter top line growth, obviously, combined with a disciplined approach to cost management. We feel very comfortable in our ability to control and carefully manage costs in our business, all within the context of continuing to invest in our people and infrastructure to support growth. So the result of all of this, we think, continues to be a very stable and healthy margin picture.

因此，總的來說，我認為這反映了一些事情：很明顯，同比非常強勁，環比增長良好，再加上嚴格的成本管理方法。在繼續投資於我們的人員和基礎設施以支持增長的背景下，我們對控制和謹慎管理業務成本的能力感到非常自在。因此，我們認為，所有這一切的結果仍然是一個非常穩定和健康的利潤率圖景。

The following question comes from Kenneth Worthington from JPMorgan.

以下問題來自摩根大通的 Kenneth Worthington。

Was hoping you could speak to BREIT and BPP. So first on BREIT, it looks like gross sales have been slowing. Gross redemptions have been picking up. I think, Jonathan, you said higher volatility impacts flows. Could BREIT go into redemption in coming months? It looks like it may be poised there.

希望你能和 BREIT 和 BPP 談談。因此，首先在 BREIT 上，總銷售額似乎一直在放緩。總贖回一直在增加。我認為，喬納森，你說更高的波動性會影響流動。 BREIT 能否在未來幾個月內贖回？看起來它可能在那裡蓄勢待發。

And then on BPP, I think assets fell during the quarter. I thought that was largely permanent capital, and I think you highlighted that Core+ returns were higher. What drove the decline there in AUM?

然後在 BPP 上，我認為資產在本季度有所下降。我認為這主要是永久性資本，我認為您強調 Core+ 的回報更高。是什麼導致 AUM 下降？

So on BPP, I think the specific answer on that is currency, I think was the specific answer because...

所以關於 BPP，我認為具體的答案是貨幣，我認為是具體的答案，因為......

The translation of our European BPP plan.

我們的歐洲 BPP 計劃的翻譯。

And Asia.

和亞洲。

Yes.

是的。

And Asia. So I think that's what you saw there, not outflows out of the complex.

和亞洲。所以我認為這就是你在那裡看到的，而不是從綜合體中流出。

As it relates to BREIT, as I said in my remarks, it's not a surprise that you would see a deceleration in flows from individual investors when you've had this kind of market decline. I think the number in active equity and fixed income, something like $500 billion of outflows. And remarkably, as you know, we've had positive inflows throughout the year, which has been pretty exceptional.

正如我在講話中所說，就 BREIT 而言，當市場出現這種下滑時，個人投資者的資金流會減速也就不足為奇了。我認為活躍股票和固定收益的數字，大約是 5000 億美元的流出。正如你所知，值得注意的是，我們全年都有積極的資金流入，這非常不尋常。

I would say as it relates to near-term flows, yes, it's possible that we could see negatives over some period of time. But the key, which we keep pointing out, is the performance that we've delivered and the portfolio we've built. So if you look at BREIT, the fact that we've delivered 13% per year for 6 years versus 4x greater than the public REIT index or that BCRED has delivered 8% versus significant losses in fixed income over 2 years, that, of course, makes an enormous difference.

我會說，因為它與近期流量有關，是的，我們可能會在一段時間內看到負面影響。但我們一直指出的關鍵是我們提供的性能和我們建立的產品組合。因此，如果你看一下 BREIT，事實上，我們在 6 年內每年實現 13% 的收益，而比公共 REIT 指數高出 4 倍，或者 BCRED 在 2 年內實現了 8% 的固定收益顯著虧損，那當然, 有很大的不同。

There's also the positioning of these portfolios, which is if you look at what BREIT owns, we keep talking about it, rental housing, which is the biggest contributor now to inflation. And then you look at what BCRED owns, it's floating rate debt, which is benefiting, of course, every time the Fed raises rates.

還有這些投資組合的定位，如果你看看 BREIT 擁有什麼，我們一直在談論它，出租房屋，它是現在通脹的最大貢獻者。然後你看看 BCRED 擁有什麼，它是浮動利率債務，當然，每次美聯儲加息時都會受益。

And just to put a point on performance again, if you look at BREIT up 9% this year, which versus the rest of the world is, of course, quite striking. So we look at this not necessarily in the context of months or this quarter, we look at this over time. And we see individual investors at 1% to 2% allocated to alternatives versus institutions that are 25% to 30% allocated. And our view is with these products, what we're offering is attractive to individual investors, and they will continue to find so.

再次強調一下表現，如果你看看今年 BREIT 上漲了 9%，與世界其他地區相比，這當然是相當驚人的。因此，我們不一定會在幾個月或本季度的背景下看待這一點，我們會隨著時間的推移來看待這一點。我們看到個人投資者有 1% 到 2% 的比例分配給了另類投資，而機構的比例為 25% 到 30%。我們的觀點是，對於這些產品，我們提供的產品對個人投資者俱有吸引力，他們將繼續發現這一點。

Does it mean we have times when things are a little difficult? Yes. In terms of flows, we saw that in March 2020. But in the fullness of time, what we think we're going to see is investors respond to our investment management performance. That's the key driver over time.

這是否意味著我們有時會遇到一些困難？是的。就流量而言，我們在 2020 年 3 月看到了這一點。但隨著時間的推移，我們認為我們將看到投資者對我們的投資管理業績做出反應。這是隨著時間推移的關鍵驅動因素。

The next question is from Adam Beatty from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty。

I wanted to ask about capital deployment, which seems to have pretty much moderated across the various asset classes and categories. One of the themes in the industry echoed at Blackstone is the idea that market dislocation provides a good time to kind of deploy dry powder with higher expected returns. So I guess directionally, it was a little bit unexpected.

我想問一下資本部署，這似乎在各種資產類別和類別中都得到了緩和。 Blackstone 呼應的行業主題之一是，市場錯位為部署具有更高預期回報的干粉提供了良好時機。所以我在方向上猜測，這有點出乎意料。

Now a couple of minutes ago, Jon said that sometimes -- referring to Europe, that sometimes opportunities just take a while to manifest. So is it just a question of timing? Is there a reason that you've been holding back a little bit? And should we expect deployment to increase next quarter?

現在幾分鐘前，喬恩說有時——提到歐洲，有時機會只需要一段時間才能顯現出來。那麼這只是時間問題嗎？你有什麼理由一直在退縮嗎？我們是否應該期望下個季度的部署會增加？

So Adam, it's exactly what you referenced there, which is in a moment of dislocation, it takes time. Sellers' expectations change. They pause. Obviously, lenders, in some cases, move to the sidelines and transaction activity slows. And if you went back again to the '08, '09 dislocation, it took a bit of time. But then ultimately, of course, we were able to plant a lot of good seeds into the right kind of environment.

所以亞當，這正是你在那裡提到的，這是在一個錯位的時刻，這需要時間。賣家的期望發生變化。他們停下來。顯然，在某些情況下，貸方會採取觀望態度，交易活動會放緩。如果你再回到 08 年、09 年的錯位，這需要一些時間。但最終，當然，我們能夠在合適的環境中種下很多好種子。

I would expect deployment will be muted for a bit of time. That doesn't mean we're not going to find some opportunities and that sellers won't start to get creative, providing financing, maybe taking back some equity in a transaction. I think it will build over time. But until you get I think a little more certainty out there, until people become more confident about inflation starting to head down, that rates have hit their peak levels, I think you'll see a slower level of transaction activity.

我希望部署會靜音一段時間。這並不意味著我們不會找到一些機會，賣家也不會開始發揮創意，提供融資，或者在交易中收回部分股權。我認為它會隨著時間的推移而建立。但是，直到你得到更多確定性，直到人們對通脹開始下降更有信心，利率達到峰值水平，我認為你會看到交易活動水平放緩。

I think the key for us is that we don't have to be forced investors at any time, neither buyers nor sellers. So if there is a slowdown in market activity, we can afford to be a little patient. And then when opportunity emerges, we can move. And I would just say that as our platform grows, I think you'll see us be able to do more and more even in a tougher environment. Areas like insurance, we can deploy capital on an unleveraged basis at very low cost relative to others. I think that will be a busy area. But I would say an expectation of slower deployment in the near term is reasonable, but at some point, picking up meaningfully.

我認為對我們來說關鍵是我們不必在任何時候都被強迫投資者，無論是買家還是賣家。因此，如果市場活動放緩，我們可以保持耐心。然後當機會出現時，我們就可以行動了。我只想說，隨著我們平台的發展，我想你會看到我們能夠在更艱難的環境中做更多的事情。在保險等領域，我們可以以相對於其他領域非常低的成本在無槓桿的基礎上部署資本。我認為那將是一個繁忙的地區。但我會說，短期內部署放緩的預期是合理的，但在某些時候，會有意義地回升。

And Adam, it's Michael. I'd just add a couple of points. One is history, and we have 37 years of it, show that the vintages to straddle these periods of dislocation, which do take time to play out, prove to be really good vintages over time in terms of investment returns. And that second, our platform, which Jon referenced, our franchise is so strong and distinctive. And so our ability to access capital and debt capital in tougher markets and also our ability, I think, to engage in sort of dialogues with corporations, public companies, privately held companies, founders around capital solutions at a tough time, again, is, I think, quite advantaged. So we'll have to be patient. It will take time to play out in terms of activity levels, but these periods of dislocation will ultimately prove to be opportunities for value creation.

還有亞當，是邁克爾。我只想補充幾點。一個是歷史，我們有 37 年的歷史，表明跨越這些錯位時期的年份，確實需要時間來發揮作用，隨著時間的推移，在投資回報方面證明是非常好的年份。其次，Jon 提到的我們的平台，我們的特許經營權是如此強大和獨特。因此，我們在更艱難的市場中獲得資本和債務資本的能力，以及我們在艱難時期與公司、上市公司、私營公司、創始人圍繞資本解決方案進行某種對話的能力，再次，是，我覺得，挺有優勢的。所以我們必須要有耐心。在活動水平方面需要時間才能發揮作用，但這些錯位時期最終將被證明是創造價值的機會。

The following question is from Patrick Davitt from Autonomous.

以下問題來自 Autonomous 的 Patrick Davitt。

My question is on that same topic, more specific to private credit. Obviously, I appreciate your comments on better spreads and lack of competition helping you, and it looks like the deployment held up pretty well in 3Q. But how should we think about...

我的問題是關於同一主題，更具體到私人信貸。顯然，我感謝您對更好的點差和缺乏競爭的評論幫助您，而且看起來部署在第三季度保持得很好。但是我們應該怎麼想...

Patrick, you're cutting out there and we're losing you.

帕特里克，你在外面剪掉了，我們正在失去你。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, I can.

我可以。

Okay. So yes, so I appreciate the comments on better spreads and competition helping credit deployment. And that held up pretty good in 3Q. But how should we think about the pace of credit deployment through a period of continued deterioration in deal markets? Do you think it can hold up if M&A and sponsored deal volumes, in particular, are getting increasingly anemic? And if so, what do you think kind of offsets the deal volumes being a lot lower?

好的。所以是的，所以我很欣賞關於更好的利差和競爭有助於信貸部署的評論。這在第三季度保持相當不錯。但是，在交易市場持續惡化的時期，我們應該如何看待信貸部署的步伐？如果併購和讚助交易量變得越來越低，您認為它能否維持下去？如果是這樣，您認為如何抵消交易量低得多的影響？

I think what offsets the fact that deal volumes are lower is the certainty that direct lenders provide to borrowers. So in an environment like this, if you're a financial institution in the distribution business, you're going to be cautious because you don't know where the end market is. And so I think direct lenders, providers of capital who aren't distributing the paper but just holding it will have an advantage in this kind of volatile market. And so I think we're seeing that today.

我認為抵消交易量較低的事實是直接貸方向借款人提供的確定性。所以在這樣的環境下，如果你是一家從事分銷業務的金融機構，你會很謹慎，因為你不知道終端市場在哪裡。因此，我認為直接貸方和資本提供者不分發票據而只是持有票據，在這種動蕩的市場中將具有優勢。所以我認為我們今天看到了這一點。

There's definitely a movement towards direct lending. And it's a similar dynamic in insurance where rather than somebody distributing paper -- investment-grade paper, we're doing the direct origination for our insurance clients.

肯定有直接貸款的趨勢。保險業也有類似的動態，我們正在為我們的保險客戶進行直接發行，而不是有人分發票據——投資級票據。

So I think there will be opportunities. And I will say, when you look at the private equity market, there's still a lot of equity capital out there. There's a lot of discussions. There are transactions getting done at a lower level.

所以我認為會有機會。我會說，當你看私募股權市場時，仍然有很多股權資本。有很多討論。有一些交易在較低級別完成。

At some point here, inflation, as we've talked about, we'll get to a top point. Rates will get there. People will begin to feel a little better, and things will continue to go. And what's been amazing throughout this is we've continued to deliver good performance. We found some opportunities along the way, and investors continue to allocate capital to us so it gives us confidence. And we've been through other cycles before. We're sort of built as a firm for this. And we think there'll be plenty of opportunities as we get through this and get to the other side.

正如我們已經談到的那樣，在某些時候，通貨膨脹，我們將達到頂峰。利率會到達那裡。人們會開始感覺好一點，事情會繼續發展。在整個過程中，令人驚奇的是我們一直在提供良好的性能。我們一路上發現了一些機會，投資者繼續向我們分配資金，這給了我們信心。我們之前也經歷過其他週期。我們是為此而建的一家公司。我們認為，當我們度過難關並到達另一邊時，會有很多機會。

Our next question is from Finian O'Shea from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Finian O'Shea。

Sort of staying on the same theme. Can you talk about the financing markets for funds and if you see any impact there on growth across the platform or in any particular strategies?

有點停留在同一個主題上。您能否談談基金的融資市場，以及您是否發現那裡對整個平台或任何特定策略的增長有任何影響？

When you say financing for funds, you mean transaction financing?

你說的資金融資，是指交易融資嗎？

We'll say borrowing from banks, securitization capital markets sometimes. But yes, transaction that -- yes.

我們有時會說從銀行借款，證券化資本市場。但是，是的，交易——是的。

Yes. We've definitely -- as I said, we've seen a slowdown. Banks' risk appetite is lower than it was before. And spreads have gapped out. So the cost of capital if you're buying a company or buying real estate has gone up materially. We're still -- because of our unique spot, if anyone can get a financing done somewhere, it's us. And I think you'll see some examples of that in the not-too-distant future.

是的。我們肯定 - 正如我所說，我們已經看到了放緩。銀行的風險偏好低於以往。價差已經出現缺口。因此，如果您購買公司或購買房地產，資本成本已大幅上升。我們仍然 - 因為我們獨特的位置，如果有人可以在某個地方獲得融資，那就是我們。我想你會在不久的將來看到一些這樣的例子。

But it is harder to borrow money. And as I said, what we're going to see, I think, sellers do a little bit who want to sell is potentially provide some seller financing to get things done. There's a lot of creativity in the deal market. And I think that some of that will emerge in this uncertain environment. But overall message is financing is generally tougher, and it makes transactions harder.

但藉錢更難。正如我所說，我認為，我們將看到，想要出售的賣家可能會提供一些賣家融資來完成工作。交易市場有很多創意。我認為其中一些將在這種不確定的環境中出現。但總體而言，融資通常更難，交易也更難。

But I would point out, if you looked at investors, if you said, are you better off in periods like 2000, 2007, 2021, where debt markets sort of are abundant, debt is low cost, but you have to pay a lot for assets versus an environment like today, we're definitely better off as investors in an environment like today where capital is more scarce, where we may have to overequitize a deal and then ultimately finance it when markets calm down a bit in the future.

但我要指出，如果你看看投資者，如果你說，在 2000 年、2007 年、2021 年這樣的時期，你會更好嗎，債務市場有點豐富，債務成本低，但你必須為資產與今天這樣的環境相比，作為投資者，在今天這樣的資本更加稀缺的環境中，我們肯定會更好，在這種環境中，我們可能不得不對交易進行過度股權化，然後在未來市場稍微平靜下來時最終為其融資。

The following question comes from Brian Mckenna from JMP Securities.

以下問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Brian Mcckenna。

So I had a question on hedge fund solutions. Year-to-date performance has actually been pretty healthy despite the tough backdrop for public markets. So are you starting to see any increased demand for the product on the heels of this performance? And then related, how is the business tracking for year-end incentive fees in the fourth quarter?

所以我有一個關於對沖基金解決方案的問題。儘管公開市場環境艱難，但年初至今的表現實際上相當健康。那麼，在這種表現之後，您是否開始看到對該產品的需求增加？再者，第四季度年終獎勵費業務跟踪如何？

Well, I'll just comment on the fact that we brought in Joe Dowling, who previously ran the Brown endowment a couple of years ago. We actually had our LP meeting this week. And we were highlighting the team, the additional investment professional Joe's brought on board and really this outstanding performance. The fact that here we are into the worst 60-40 environment since the early '70s and the BAAM business has been positive all 3 quarters, that is exceptional, particularly given the scale of capital they operate.

好吧，我只想評論一下我們引進了喬·道林（Joe Dowling）的事實，他幾年前曾管理過布朗捐贈基金。本週我們實際上舉行了 LP 會議。我們正在強調團隊，喬帶來的額外投資專業人士以及真正出色的表現。事實上，我們處於自 70 年代初以來最糟糕的 60-40 年環境中，而 BAAM 業務在三個季度中一直都是積極的，這是非常特殊的，特別是考慮到他們運營的資本規模。

I think it's still a bit early in terms of investors who have been, I think, a little more cautious on the hedge fund sector now recognizing in an environment like this that some of these nondirectional strategies in macro quant credit-related strategies can generate attractive returns. And I think that will give us momentum over time. It takes a bit of time for investors to see what's happening here, but we feel really good about it. We could not be more proud of the investment performance the BAAM team has delivered.

我認為，對於那些對對沖基金行業更加謹慎的投資者來說，現在還為時過早返回。我認為隨著時間的推移，這會給我們帶來動力。投資者需要一些時間才能看到這裡發生的事情，但我們對此感覺非常好。我們對 BAAM 團隊所提供的投資業績感到無比自豪。

The following question comes from Chris Kotowski from Oppenheimer.

以下問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Chris Kotowski。

I mean, I guess the striking thing to me is that if you look at the public apartment logistics and lodging rates, the earnings are up. The estimates are up. The estimates for next year are higher than for this year, but the stocks are down 30%. And so it -- I guess, it leads me to think, one -- a, do you need to run BREIT with more liquidity just in case the perception there gets a negative?

我的意思是，我想對我來說最引人注目的是，如果你看一下公共公寓的物流和住宿費率，收入就會上升。估計上升了。對明年的估計高於今年，但股價下跌了 30%。所以它——我想，它讓我思考，一個——a，你是否需要以更多的流動性來運行BREIT，以防萬一人們的看法是負面的？

And then b, when you use your methodology for looking at the asset values in BREIT, and if you apply that to the public companies, do those all of a sudden look a whole bunch more attractive relative to your valuations?

然後 b，當您使用您的方法來查看 BREIT 中的資產價值時，如果您將其應用於上市公司，與您的估值相比，這些公司是否突然看起來更具吸引力？

Yes. I'll start on valuations. What's interesting about the public real estate market, it's pretty small. It's probably 7% or 8% of the U.S. commercial real estate market. It trades with a lot of volatility, as you pointed out. In fact, since 2010, it's gone up or down in a 60-day period by more than 10% 50 times, which hasn't happened in the private real estate market during that period, I don't think once.

是的。我將從估值開始。公共房地產市場的有趣之處在於，它非常小。它可能占美國商業房地產市場的 7% 或 8%。正如您所指出的，它的交易波動性很大。事實上，從2010年開始，60天的時間裡漲跌幅度都在10%以上，50次以上，這期間私人地產市場還沒有發生過，我想也沒有。

So -- and it can, of course, trade above NAV and below. And part of the decline you've seen was the public markets heading into this were actually above in many cases the private market. So some of that was giving back. And if you look at the analysts today who cover real estate, they would say they're trading below the private market. And the short answer is, does it create opportunity for us as the largest real estate investor? It does. We've done many, many public to privates in the real estate space.

所以——當然，它可以在資產淨值之上和之下交易。你所看到的部分下跌是進入這一趨勢的公開市場在許多情況下實際上高於私人市場。所以其中一些是回饋。如果你看看今天的房地產分析師，他們會說他們的交易價格低於私人市場。簡短的回答是，它是否為我們作為最大的房地產投資者創造了機會？確實如此。我們已經在房地產領域做了很多很多的公私合作。

And generally, it's because the public markets tend to go back and forth between euphoria and depression. And what we've seen here is now the idea is rates have gone up and therefore, real estate values go down very, very sharply below the private market value, which can create an opportunity for us certainly.

一般來說，這是因為公共市場往往在欣快和蕭條之間來回走動。我們在這裡看到的是現在的想法是利率上升了，因此房地產價值非常非常急劇地低於私人市場價值，這當然可以為我們創造機會。

And we do believe, if you look at the logistics space, the phenomenal performance that's happening in markets, the -- if the public markets don't seem to appreciate that, but those can create opportunities over time, similarly in rental housing.

我們確實相信，如果你看看物流領域，市場上正在發生的驚人表現， - 如果公共市場似乎沒有意識到這一點，但隨著時間的推移，這些可以創造機會，在出租房屋中也是如此。

As it relates to BREIT, we've built this product keeping in mind that there can be volatility in markets. So we run the vehicle with ample liquidity, large amounts of cash and revolvers, large amounts of liquid debt securities. We met 100% of the repurchase request since we started 6 years ago, including throughout COVID. And the structure means we're never a forced seller of assets.

由於它與 BREIT 相關，我們在構建此產品時牢記市場可能存在波動。因此，我們以充足的流動性、大量現金和左輪手槍、大量流動債務證券來運營這輛車。自 6 年前開始以來，我們滿足了 100% 的回購請求，包括在整個 COVID 期間。這種結構意味著我們永遠不會被迫出售資產。

So we feel really good about BREIT and its ability to weather pretty much any storm. And again, back to what I talked about earlier, focusing on rental housing and logistics, where the vast majority of the assets are in the Southern United States, you could not have built a better portfolio for the environment we're in. And we feel really good about where BREIT is going over time.

因此，我們對 BREIT 及其抵禦幾乎任何風暴的能力感到非常滿意。再說一次，回到我之前談到的，專注於出租房屋和物流，絕大多數資產都在美國南部，你不可能為我們所處的環境建立一個更好的投資組合。而且我們隨著時間的推移，BREIT 的發展方向感覺非常好。

Our next question comes from Rufus Hone from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Rufus Hone。

I was hoping to get an update on how your private equity portfolio of companies are performing and also on their ability to manage higher debt service costs as the economy slows down. And related to that, I was curious to know how you've structured the debt at your portfolio of companies. If you could share roughly what the mix is between fixed and floating rate debt. And to what extent you may have hedged the floating portion, that would be really helpful.

我希望了解您的私募股權投資組合的最新表現，以及在經濟放緩時它們管理更高償債成本的能力。與此相關，我很想知道您是如何在您的公司投資組合中構建債務的。如果您可以大致分享固定利率和浮動利率債務之間的組合。以及您可能在多大程度上對沖浮動部分，這將非常有幫助。

It's Michael. I'll start with the last question. We've been at this for a while, obviously, financing our private equity portfolio and feel really good about the position our companies are in. Our average debt maturity -- remaining maturity in our private equity portfolio is around 5 years. In terms of hedging, while the baseline is -- there's obviously a floating rate component, especially the senior debt.

是邁克爾。我將從最後一個問題開始。顯然，我們在這方面已經有一段時間了，為我們的私募股權投資組合融資，並且對我們公司所處的位置感覺非常好。我們的平均債務期限——我們私募股權投資組合的剩餘期限約為 5 年。在對沖方面，雖然基線是 - 顯然存在浮動利率成分，尤其是高級債務。

There's a fixed component as it relates to a high yield or sub debt portion in most cases. And then we also hedge a significant portion of our portfolio to fixed over a period of time. And then I'd say from an interest coverage level, in very, very good position from a cushion standpoint, even anticipating higher base rates.

在大多數情況下，有一個固定部分與高收益或次級債務部分有關。然後我們還將我們投資組合的很大一部分對沖在一段時間內固定。然後我會說，從利息覆蓋水平來看，從緩衝的角度來看，處於非常非常好的位置，即使預期會有更高的基準利率。

And I would say, performance-wise, the third quarter, again, remarkable 17% revenue growth. Real strength, as we talked about in travel and leisure, businesses like Crown Resorts, Merlin Entertainment. We have a visa processing business. All of these companies seeing very strong revenue growth. We have large exposure to energy and energy transition. Of course, that's been one of the best areas in the global economy. And that sector positioning for us, I think, has made a very big difference relative to sort of the overall mix of companies out there.

我想說的是，從業績角度來看，第三季度的收入再次顯著增長了 17%。真正的實力，正如我們在旅遊和休閒領域談到的那樣，Crown Resorts、Merlin Entertainment 等企業。我們有簽證處理業務。所有這些公司的收入增長都非常強勁。我們大量接觸能源和能源轉型。當然，這是全球經濟中最好的領域之一。我認為，相對於公司的整體組合，我們的行業定位產生了很大的不同。

We also -- when we did technology investing, we focus on profitable tech businesses, enterprise tech businesses, which are continuing to grow nicely. So we are -- as we said in the opening, we're seeing a slowdown economically but still really good momentum, and particularly in our companies. There is still some margin pressure out there. Labor costs mean that the bottom line is not growing as fast as the revenue line is. But I would say on the ground today, at least for our portfolio, it's still pretty good.

我們還 - 當我們進行技術投資時，我們專注於盈利的技術業務，企業技術業務，這些業務正在繼續良好增長。所以我們 - 正如我們在開場時所說的那樣，我們看到經濟放緩，但勢頭仍然非常好，尤其是在我們的公司中。仍然存在一些利潤壓力。勞動力成本意味著底線的增長速度沒有收入線那麼快。但我今天要說的是，至少對於我們的投資組合來說，它仍然相當不錯。

Up next is Arnaud Giblat from BNPP Exane.

接下來是 BNPP Exane 的 Arnaud Giblat。

My questions on the opportunities out there in secondary markets. There's been a lot of news flow suggesting that pension funds have been selling some of their LP stakes in the U.S. and Europe. I was wondering if you could comment on that. Have volumes picked up markedly? And is pricing attractive for your secondary funds?

我對二級市場機會的問題。有很多消息表明，養老基金一直在出售其在美國和歐洲的部分 LP 股份。我想知道你是否可以對此發表評論。成交量有明顯回升嗎？定價對您的二級基金有吸引力嗎？

We think it's a really great time for what will be a $20 billion industry leader secondary fund. What happens in moments like this, a little bit like my earlier comments, is you see a pause from sellers. They want to wait and see where valuations come out. Sometimes they may not be enthused about potential discounts as the funds may get marked down and they accept that the valuations are different than they were 12 months earlier, then you see transaction activity pick up.

我們認為現在是一個 200 億美元的行業領先二級基金的好時機。在這樣的時刻會發生什麼，有點像我之前的評論，你會看到賣家的停頓。他們想等待，看看估值會在哪裡出現。有時他們可能對潛在的折扣不感興趣，因為基金可能會被降價，並且他們接受估值與 12 個月前不同，然後您會看到交易活動回升。

I would say overall, as alternatives have grown in a big way, the secondaries business is very well positioned because people need liquidity for a wide variety of reasons, and there just hasn't been enough growth in the secondary space. And again, it speaks to the power of Blackstone. The fact that we've got a leading industry platform in this area as well is really advantageous.

我想說總體而言，隨著替代品的大幅增長，二級市場業務處於非常有利的地位，因為人們出於各種原因需要流動性，而二級市場的增長還不夠。再一次，它說明了黑石的力量。我們在這一領域也擁有領先的行業平台，這一事實非常有利。

We believe that we'll see a pickup in volumes. It may take 6 months for that to happen. That's been the history. But when it happens -- because of the scale of our platform and our ability to invest in all sorts of funds. We're invested in more than 4,000 funds, which gives us a real competitive advantage when somebody is looking for a holistic solution. So we like the space. We think it's going to be a busy space. It may just be a little bit slower here for a couple of quarters.

我們相信我們會看到交易量增加。這可能需要 6 個月的時間。這就是歷史。但是當它發生時——因為我們平台的規模和我們投資各種基金的能力。我們投資了超過 4,000 支基金，當有人尋求整體解決方案時，這為我們提供了真正的競爭優勢。所以我們喜歡這個空間。我們認為這將是一個繁忙的空間。幾個季度的時間可能會慢一點。

Our final question comes from Brian Bedell from Deutsche Bank.

我們的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Just wanted to go back to Resolution Life for a second and to your confidence on that being a block aggregator. And I think you mentioned $250 billion of potential fundraising insurance. Would you be able to unpack that a little bit in terms of the different components of those drivers and a rough time frame?

只是想回到解決生活一秒鐘，並恢復您對成為區塊聚合器的信心。我認為你提到了 2500 億美元的潛在籌款保險。您能否根據這些驅動程序的不同組件和粗略的時間框架來解開一點？

Yes. On the $250 billion, that's really the $150 billion today plus where we think both Corebridge is going to grow to plus Resolution plus a little bit of organic growth as well.

是的。在 2500 億美元上，這實際上是今天的 1500 億美元，加上我們認為 Corebridge 將增長到加上分辨率加上一點有機增長的地方。

And the $150 billion is our total insurance AUM managed. There's about $110 billion or so subset of that from these 4 big partnerships that Jon's referencing. It's that number that will contractually -- we expect to grow to $250 billion or so over time. Jon?

1500 億美元是我們管理的總保險資產管理規模。 Jon 提到的這 4 個大型合作夥伴關係中大約有 1100 億美元左右的子集。這個數字將在合同上——我們預計隨著時間的推移將增長到 2500 億美元左右。喬恩？

On Resolution, what's attractive to us is that they're focused on these legacy closed blocks. And so there are a lot of insurance companies out there today. This is an area where there is a lot of deal flow who want to move out of their old, call it, life insurance book. Resolution is uniquely positioned.

在分辨率方面，對我們有吸引力的是他們專注於這些遺留的封閉塊。所以今天有很多保險公司。這是一個有很多交易流程的領域，他們想要擺脫舊的，稱之為人壽保險書。分辨率具有獨特的定位。

The CEO, Clive Cowdery, has been doing this for a very long time. He's built a terrific team to not only underwrite the liabilities, but then to service the customers. What he hadn't done historically was focus as much on the asset side, generally buying liquid rate in fixed income. And what we're bringing to Resolution is new capital to help them grow in what we think is a very good time and the ability to directly originate credit.

首席執行官 Clive Cowdery 已經這樣做了很長時間。他建立了一個了不起的團隊，不僅可以承保債務，還可以為客戶提供服務。他在歷史上沒有做過的事情是同樣關注資產方面，通常購買固定收益的流動利率。我們為解決方案帶來的是新的資本，以幫助他們在我們認為非常好的時期成長，並有能力直接獲得信貸。

And this is this megatrend I talked about. But the ability to make real estate loans, corporate loans, infrastructure loans, asset-backed loans and do that at scale, we think that is a very compelling opportunity. Resolution was excited about it, and it gives us another engine. So we've obviously got Resolution focused on these closed blocks. In the case of Corebridge and also F&G, we have firms that are growing in the fixed annuity space in a big way.

這就是我談到的這個大趨勢。但是，能夠大規模提供房地產貸款、公司貸款、基礎設施貸款、資產支持貸款，我們認為這是一個非常有吸引力的機會。 Resolution 對此感到非常興奮，它為我們提供了另一個引擎。所以我們顯然已經讓解決方案專注於這些封閉的塊。在 Corebridge 和 F&G 的情況下，我們的公司在固定年金領域正在大幅增長。

So we've got multiple engines of growth for assets in this space, and the base rates have moved up and the spreads have widened. So if you think about a market where it's a very attractive time to be deploying capital and repositioning out of traditional fixed income into private credit, this is that moment. We're excited about this, and we really like this model as we talked about, which is asset-light. We don't have to take on insurance liabilities and multiclient. We're not just limited by one balance sheet. We can work with a variety of clients who all benefit from the scale and diversification we can give them.

因此，我們在這個領域擁有多種資產增長引擎，基準利率上升，利差擴大。因此，如果您考慮一個市場，此時是一個非常有吸引力的時期，可以部署資本並將傳統固定收益重新定位為私人信貸，那就是那個時刻。我們對此感到興奮，並且我們真的很喜歡我們談到的這種模型，它是輕資產的。我們不必承擔保險責任和多客戶。我們不僅受制於一張資產負債表。我們可以與各種各樣的客戶合作，他們都從我們可以提供給他們的規模和多樣化中受益。

Allow me to now hand it back to Weston Tucker for closing remarks.

現在請允許我把它交還給 Weston Tucker 作結束語。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and look forward to following up after the call.

好的。謝謝大家今天加入我們，並期待在電話會議後跟進。

Thank you for joining, everyone. That concludes your conference. You may now disconnect. Please enjoy the rest of your day. Goodbye.

謝謝大家的加入。您的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。請盡情享受您的一天。再見。