Blackstone Inc (BX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Blackstone fourth quarter and full year 2024 investor call.

大家好，歡迎參加黑石 2024 年第四季和全年投資者電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I'd like to turn the conference over to Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations.

我想將會議交給股東關係主管韋斯頓·塔克 (Weston Tucker)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Katie, and good morning, and welcome to Blackstone's fourth quarter conference call.

謝謝，凱蒂，早安，歡迎參加黑石集團第四季電話會議。

Joining me today are Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長史蒂夫‧施瓦茨曼 (Steve Schwarzman)；總裁兼營運長喬恩‧格雷 (Jon Gray)；以及副董事長兼財務長 Michael Chae。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和幻燈片演示，可在我們的網站上查閱。

We expect to file our 10-K report later next month.

我們預計將於下個月稍後提交 10-K 報告。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and may differ from actual results materially.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述不確定，可能與實際結果有重大差異。

We do not undertake any duty to update these statements.

我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could affect results, please see the risk factors section of our 10-K.

有關可能影響結果的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們的 10-K 中的風險因素部分。

We'll also refer to non-GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the shareholders page of our website.

我們也會參考非公認會計準則指標，您可以在我們網站股東頁面的新聞稿中找到對帳資訊。

Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的內容並不構成出售要約或購買任何黑石基金權益的要約邀請。

This audiocast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent.

此音訊廣播為 Blackstone 的版權資料，未經同意不得複製。

Quickly on results.

很快就有結果。

We reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $1.3 billion.

我們報告本季的 GAAP 淨收入為 13 億美元。

Distributable earnings were $2.2 billion or $1.69 per common share, and we declared a dividend of $1.44 per share, which will be paid to holders of record as of February 10.

可分配收益為 22 億美元，即每股 1.69 美元，我們宣布每股股息 1.44 美元，將支付給截至 2 月 10 日登記在冊的股東。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thank you, Weston, and good morning, and thank you for joining our call.

謝謝你，韋斯頓，早安，謝謝你加入我們的電話會議。

Blackstone just reported one of the best quarters in our history.

黑石集團剛剛公佈了其歷史上最好的季度之一。

Distributable earnings increased 56% year over year to $2.2 billion, as Weston mentioned, underpinned by record FRE.

正如韋斯頓所提到的，可分配收益年增 56% 至 22 億美元，這得益於創紀錄的 FRE。

Our limited partners entrusted us with $57 billion of inflows just in the fourth quarter and $171 billion for the year, reflecting strong momentum the institutional insurance and private wealth channels.

我們的有限合夥人僅在第四季度就委託我們投入 570 億美元的資金，全年投入 1,710 億美元，反映出機構保險和私人財富管道的強勁發展勢頭。

Of particular note, we raised $28 billion in private wealth in 2024, including $23 billion in the potential strategies nearly double.

特別值得注意的是，我們在 2024 年籌集了 280 億美元的私人財富，其中潛在戰略財富為 230 億美元，幾乎翻了一番。

We beat that nearly doubled what we raised from individuals in these strategies in the prior year.

我們透過這些策略從個人籌集的資金幾乎是去年的兩倍。

All signs point to further acceleration in 2025.

所有跡像都顯示 2025 年這一趨勢將進一步加速。

After quarter end, in January, we raised an additional $3.7 billion for our private wealth sequentials.

季度結束後，也就是 1 月份，我們又為私人財富連續籌集了 37 億美元。

We did the launch of our new infrastructure vehicles, representing a powerful affirmation of our unique position in this channel.

我們推出了新的基礎設施車輛，有力地肯定了我們在該管道的獨特地位。

We believe our $260 billion private wealth business is multiples the size of our next largest competitor.

我們相信，我們 2,600 億美元的私人財富業務規模是我們第二大競爭對手的數倍。

Largest single contributor to the firm's financial results in the fourth quarter was our dedicated infrastructure strategy, BIP which generated $1.2 billion of fee revenues.

我們的專用基礎設施策略BIP是該公司第四季財務業績的最大貢獻者，它創造了12億美元的費用收入。

BIP has delivered remarkable investment performance since inception only six years ago, including 17% net returns annually for the co-mingled strategy.

BIP 自六年前成立以來就取得了卓越的投資業績，其中混合策略每年實現 17% 的淨回報率。

This performance has fueled exceptional growth with AUM today of $55 billion, up 34% just in the past year alone.

這項業績推動了卓越的成長，目前資產管理規模已達 550 億美元，光是去年就成長了 34%。

BIP anchors a broader infrastructure platform as a firm that exceeds $120 billion across equity, credit and insurance.

BIP 作為一家資產超過 1200 億美元的公司，在股票、信貸和保險領域奠定了更廣泛的基礎設施平台的基礎。

Relatively short period of time, we've established one of the world's largest infrastructure business.

在相對較短的時間內，我們建立了世界上最大的基礎設施業務之一。

Our success in this area is a powerful illustration of how we build an enduring leading business at Blackstone.

我們在這一領域的成功有力地說明了我們如何在黑石中打造持久的領先業務。

It reflects the same blueprint for how we've been able to grow from $400,000 in startup capital, 1985, more than $1.1 trillion of AUM today, the largest alternative asset manager in the world and why I believe we will continue to achieve strong growth in the future.

它反映了同樣的藍圖，即我們如何能夠從1985 年的40 萬美元啟動資金發展到如今超過1.1 兆美元的資產管理規模，成為世界上最大的另類資產管理公司，以及為什麼我相信我們將繼續實現強勁成長未來。

Starts with innovation as a core competency of the firm as we're always working to identify the next paradigm shift in the market.

從創新開始作為公司的核心競爭力，我們一直致力於確定市場中的下一個範式轉移。

We evaluate whether we can create something truly differentiated for our limited partners, but the opportunity can be scaled significantly.

我們評估是否可以為我們的有限合夥人創造真正差異化的東西，但這個機會可以大幅擴大。

If we have the right team to lead it, drawing upon the firm's deep well of talent.

如果我們擁有合適的團隊來領導，就能充分利用公司的豐富人才資源。

Importantly, any new area also add to the firm's intellectual capital and create synergies with our other businesses to make the rest of the firm better.

重要的是，任何新領域也會增加公司的智力資本，並與我們的其他業務產生協同效應，從而使公司的其他部分變得更好。

We have carefully considered infrastructure as a stand-alone business for a number of years.

多年來，我們一直仔細地將基礎設施視為一項獨立的業務。

We've been investing successfully in energy infrastructure projects for over a decade, other private equity and credit funds, which along with our extraordinary real estate franchise made infrastructure natural extension as a new business line.

十多年來，我們一直成功地投資能源基礎設施項目、其他私募股權和信貸基金，再加上我們卓越的房地產特許經營權，使基礎設施自然延伸成為一條新的業務線。

In 2017, we saw a historic investment opportunity emerging in the US and around the world, made the decision the launch of dedicated strategy.

2017年，我們看到美國及世界各地出現了歷史性的投資機會，決定推出專門的策略。

We identified a consolidated individual in our private equity energy area, our partners showing (inaudible) to lead the new business.

我們在私募股權能源領域確定了一位合併後的個人，我們的合夥人表示（聽不清楚）將領導新業務。

We began raising capital in 2018 supported by an anchor commitment from an important limited partner.

我們於 2018 年開始籌集資金，並獲得了一位重要有限合夥人的錨定承諾支持。

Today, with $55 billion in outstanding investment performance, BIP has exceeded our initial and predictably very high expectations.

如今，憑藉 550 億美元的出色投資業績，BIP 已經超出了我們最初的、可預見的非常高的預期。

The team has done an exceptional job portfolio construction focused on compelling thematic areas, including digital infrastructure, energy and power and critical transportation infrastructure.

該團隊在投資組合建構方面做得非常出色，重點關注引人注目的主題領域，包括數位基礎設施、能源電力和關鍵交通基礎設施。

And we see enormous runway ahead, massive funding needs for projects globally, and there are more opportunities and available capital.

我們看到未來巨大的發展空間，全球專案有大量的資金需求，還有更多的機會和可用資本。

We envision a growth path for infrastructure business, the parallels that of our real estate business, including geographic expansion, new client channels, moving across the capital structure and risk return spectrum.

我們設想的基礎設施業務的成長路徑與我們的房地產業務相似，包括地理擴張、新客戶管道、資本結構和風險回報範圍的轉變。

We started raising the European infrastructure perpetual vehicle last fall.

去年秋天，我們開始籌集歐洲基礎設施永久資金。

And earlier this month, as I mentioned, launched a vehicle designed to give individual investors access to the full breadth of our infrastructure platform.

正如我所提到的，本月早些時候，我們推出了一款旨在讓個人投資者能夠全面使用我們基礎設施平台的工具。

Over time, we also see opportunities in Asia and the potential for sector specific strategies.

隨著時間的推移，我們也看到了亞洲的機會和特定產業策略的潛力。

The growth of our infrastructure business was greatly helped by the other businesses at Blackstone and the firm's resources around the globe.

我們的基礎設施業務的成長極大地受益於黑石集團的其他業務以及該公司遍布全球的資源。

These advantages include sourcing opportunities from and investing alongside our other funds.

這些優勢包括從我們的其他基金中尋找機會並與我們的其他基金一起投資。

For example, BIP joined our real estate team in 2021 and to privatize the QTS data center business, which has become the largest and fastest growing data center platform in the world.

例如，BIP於2021年加入我們的房地產團隊，並將QTS資料中心業務私有化，該業務已成為全球最大、成長最快的資料中心平台。

And now our leadership position in data centers is creating additional synergies across the firm, enabling us to address many new opportunities.

現在，我們在資料中心的領導地位正在為整個公司創造額外的協同效應，使我們能夠抓住許多新的機會。

And as BIP has continued to scale, it has in turn enhanced the firm's intellectual capital, relationships and deal flow, supporting our growth in other areas, including our $90 billion infrastructure and asset-based credit platform, our infrastructure secondaries business and our dedicated energy and energy transition focused funds.

隨著BIP 規模不斷擴大，它反過來又增強了公司的智力資本、關係和交易流程，支持了我們在其他領域的成長，包括我們價值900 億美元的基礎設施和資產信貸平台、我們的基礎設施二級市場業務以及我們專用的能源以及專注於能源轉型的基金。

And I'm pointing -- what I'm outlining this morning is just one compelling proof point of the power of the Blackstone platform.

我想指出的是——我今天早上所概述的只是黑石平台實力的一個令人信服的證明點。

We designed the firm from the beginning to work this way with each business making the other stronger this network effect sets Blackstone of park in the asset management area, underpins the strength of our brand, axis an accelerant for the firm's overall growth.

我們從一開始就設計公司以這種方式運作，每個業務都使其他業務更加強大，這種網路效應使黑石在資產管理領域佔據一席之地，鞏固了我們品牌的實力，並成為公司整體成長的加速器。

Our clients have a positive experience in one area.

我們的客戶在某一領域有著正面的體驗。

We're much more likely to invest in additional Blackstone products and support our expansion.

我們更有可能投資更多黑石產品並支持我們的擴張。

Building things organic from the ground up, this challenging fix time involves upfront costs.

從頭開始建立有機事物，這個具有挑戰性的修復時間涉及前期成本。

However, we think our approach ultimately creates a stronger, more integrated firm as well as significant economic benefits as compared to a strategy focus acquisitions.

然而，我們認為，與策略重點收購相比，我們的方法最終將創造更強大、更具整合性的公司，並帶來顯著的經濟效益。

And if reserves and perpetuates our unique culture, which is foundational for the firm's success.

它保留並延續了我們獨特的文化，這是公司成功的基礎。

As we head into the new year, we're moving into an environment where we see consequential tailwinds for our overall business.

隨著我們進入新的一年，我們正進入一個對我們的整體業務產生重大推動作用的環境。

Market participants have been focused recently to volatility in the US treasury yields, reflecting persistent inflation concerns in the context of resilient US economic growth as well as policy uncertainty.

近期市場參與者關注美國公債殖利率的波動，反映出在美國經濟成長強勁以及政策不確定性的背景下持續存在的通膨擔憂。

With respect to inflation, what we see based on our expansive portfolio and our proprietary data that the US is continuing for the path of disinflation, albeit at a more moderate pace than before.

關於通貨膨脹，根據我們廣泛的投資組合和專有數據，我們看到美國正在繼續走通貨緊縮的道路，儘管速度比以前更為溫和。

The policy, where there are different factors to consider, I believe the direction of travel fundamentally is for policies that are pro-growth and pro deregulation, chosenly it should be quite positive for our business.

對於政策，需要考慮多種因素，我認為根本的方向是有利於成長和放鬆管制的政策，這對我們的業務應該是非常有利的。

Closing, the power of Blackstone's platform will continue to drive us forward.

最後，黑石平台的力量將繼續推動我們前進。

Our positioning has never been stronger nor our prospects brighter.

我們的定位從未如此強大，我們的前景從未如此光明。

I couldn't be prouder of our people and their dedication to serving our investors.

我對我們的員工以及他們為投資者服務的奉獻精神感到無比自豪。

With that, turn the ball over to Jon.

說完，將球交給喬恩。

I will catch it.

我會抓住它的。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。

This was an outstanding quarter for Blackstone.

對於黑石集團來說這是一個出色的季度。

Steve highlighted the power of our platform, and I'll take you through three areas where that power was on full display.

史蒂夫強調了我們平台的強大功能，我將帶您了解充分展示這種強大功能的三個領域。

First, our large-scale deployment, secondly, our continued momentum in credit and insurance and third, the acceleration in our fundraising, including both private wealth and the institutional channel.

第一，我們的大規模部署；第二，我們在信貸和保險領域的持續發展勢頭；第三，我們的融資加速，包括私人財富和機構管道。

Starting with deployment.

從部署開始。

Over the past 12 months, we've been talking about a strengthening transaction environment and our desire to invest significant capital in anticipation of improving markets.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們一直在談論不斷加強的交易環境，以及我們願意投入大量資金以期市場改善的願望。

We're pleased to say that we deployed $134 billion in 2024, up 81% year over year, planting the seeds of future value of what we believe is a favorable time.

我們很高興地說，我們在 2024 年部署了 1,340 億美元，年增 81%，為我們認為有利時機的未來價值播下了種子。

The combination of a healthy US economy, historically tight financing spreads, greater debt availability, the prospects of a more business-friendly regulatory climate and importantly, accelerating technological innovations have given us confidence to deploy capital at scale.

健康的美國經濟、歷史性緊縮的融資利差、更高的債務可用性、更有利於商業的監管環境的前景，以及最重要的，加速的技術創新，這些因素相結合，給了我們大規模部署資本的信心。

We invested or committed $62 billion in Q4, our most active pace in 2.5 years.

我們在第四季投資或承諾投資 620 億美元，這是我們 2.5 年來最活躍的步伐。

New commitments in the quarter included fast-growing franchise business and very tasty Jersey Mike's, the privatization of a grocery anchored retail REIT, our third cake private and real estate in 2024 and a luxury mixed-use complex in Tokyo, representing the largest ever real estate transaction in the country by a non-Japanese investor.

本季的新承諾包括快速成長的特許經營業務和非常美味的Jersey Mike's、以雜貨店為基礎的零售房地產投資信託基金的私有化、我們2024 年的第三個蛋糕私有化和房地產以及東京的一個豪華混合用途綜合體，這是有史以​​來最大的房地產非日本投資者在該國進行的房地產交易。

In credit, we reported record deployment for both the quarter and full year, including a $3.5 billion financing for EQT Corp, one of the largest natural gas producers in the United States.

在信貸方面，我們報告了本季和全年創紀錄的部署，其中包括為美國最大的天然氣生產商之一 EQT Corp 提供的 35 億美元融資。

This venture is an excellent illustration of the scale of what we're doing today in the investment-grade private credit space and our position as a trusted solutions provider to many of the world's leading corporations.

這項合作很好地體現了我們目前在投資級私人信貸領域的業務規模，以及我們作為全球許多領先企業值得信賴的解決方案提供者的地位。

We leveraged the full breadth of our platform to design a custom solution across the capital structure for the borrowers secured by the long-term contractual cash flows of their critical pipeline infrastructure.

我們充分利用我們平台的全部優勢，為以關鍵管道基礎設施的長期合約現金流作為擔保的借款人設計一套涵蓋資本結構的客製化解決方案。

For our clients, we provided access to a high-quality, directly originated investment and we executed the transaction, as always, without taking on balance sheet risk.

對於我們的客戶，我們提供高品質、直接發起的投資管道，並且我們一如既往地執行交易，而不承擔資產負債表風險。

We see a significant opportunity for more corporate partnerships over time given the scale of our platform and our reputation.

鑑於我們平台的規模和聲譽，我們看到隨著時間的推移，建立更多企業合作夥伴關係的巨大機會。

Stepping back, our credit insurance business continues to see huge momentum following a remarkable 2024.

回顧過去，我們的信用保險業務在經歷了引人注目的 2024 年後繼續呈現強勁發展勢頭。

We built a private credit juggernaut and the largest third-party business of its kind in the world, with over $450 billion of total assets across corporate and real estate credit.

我們建立了一個私人信貸巨頭和世界上最大的第三方信貸業務，其企業和房地產信貸總資產超過 4500 億美元。

Inflows for the combined platform exceeded $100 billion in 2024, comprising 60% of the firm's total inflows.

2024 年，合併後平台的流入資金將超過 1,000 億美元，佔該公司總流入資金的 60%。

Our non-investment grade private credit and real estate credit drawdown strategies appreciated 16% and 18%, respectively for the year.

我們的非投資等級私人信貸和房地產信貸提取策略今年分別升值了 16% 和 18%。

These are extraordinary results for performing credit underpinning robust investor interest in these areas.

這對於信貸表現來說是非凡的成績，支撐了投資者對這些領域的濃厚興趣。

We're also seeing strong traction for our investment grade private credit offerings as I noted, and now manage over $100 billion in that area, up nearly 40% year over year, virtually all on behalf of insurance clients, but we are now seeing receptivity from pensions and other LPs as well.

正如我所指出的，我們的投資級私人信貸產品也獲得了強勁增長，目前我們管理著超過 1000 億美元的投資，同比增長近 40%，幾乎全部來自保險客戶，但我們現在看到了接受度來自退休金和其他LP 的資金也是如此。

In the insurance channel specifically, our business has reached nearly $230 billion, up 19% year over year, invested across IG private credit liquid credit and other strategies.

具體來說，在保險管道，我們的業務已達到近 2,300 億美元，年增 19%，投資於 IG 私人信貸流動性信貸和其他策略。

Today, we have 23 SMA clients in addition to our four large strategic relationships, replaced or originated $46 billion of A- rated credits on average for our private IG focused clients in 2024, up 38% year over year which generated nearly 200 basis points of excess spread over comparably rated liquid credits.

今天，除了四大策略合作夥伴外，我們還擁有23 個SMA 客戶，2024 年，我們為專注於私人IG 的客戶平均替換或發放了460 億美元的A 級信貸，同比增長38%，產生了近200 個基點的收益。

We've achieved these results while remaining true to our capital like brand heavy open architecture model designed to serve a multitude of insurance clients without taking on any liabilities.

我們在取得這些成果的同時，始終堅持我們的資本，例如品牌重型開放式架構模式，旨在為眾多保險客戶提供服務而不承擔任何責任。

Resolution Life one of our four strategic relationships is a perfect validation of our model.

Resolution Life 是我們的四大策略關係之一，也是我們模式的完美驗證。

Last month, Nippon Life, the largest Japanese life insurer and an existing resolution shareholder announced it would acquire the remainder of the company it didn't already own at a $10.6 billion valuation.

上個月，日本最大的人壽保險公司和現有處置股東日本生命宣布，將以 106 億美元的估值收購其尚未擁有的該公司剩餘股份。

Blackstone had taken a small 6% stake in resolution in 2023, alongside other limited partners in connection with becoming the company's asset manager for private and structured credit.

黑石集團與其他有限合夥人於 2023 年共同收購了 Resolution 6% 的小部分股份，成為該公司的私人和結構化信貸資產管理者。

Nippon's investment will monetize our stake, deliver an attractive gain to our limited partners and the firm all while positioning resolution to accelerate growth under an extremely well-capitalized and capable parent.

Nippon 的投資將使我們的股份貨幣化，為我們的有限合夥人和公司帶來可觀的收益，同時在資本雄厚、能力強的母公司的領導下加速成長。

Importantly, we will remain resolutions investment manager going forward and we are excited to partner with Nippon on this next stage of the company's development.

重要的是，我們將繼續擔任決議投資經理，我們很高興與 Nippon 合作，共同推動公司發展的下一階段。

Turning to private wealth, where our momentum accelerated significantly in 2024, 2025 is also off to a terrific start.

談到私人財富，我們的發展動能在 2024 年顯著加速，2025 年也將有一個好的開始。

We are uniquely positioned in the wealth channel, given the breadth of our product lineup, our performance and the power of our brand.

憑藉我們廣泛的產品線、出色的業績和品牌實力，我們在財富管道中佔據著獨特的地位。

Sales in the channel exceeded $28 billion in 2024, as Steve noted.

史蒂夫指出，到 2024 年，該通路的銷售額將超過 280 億美元。

BCRED led the way raising over $12 billion for the year, driving 36% year over year growth in NAV.

BCRED 是其中的佼佼者，全年募資超過 120 億美元，推動資產淨值年增 36%。

Our private equity strategy, BXPE has already grown to over $8 billion in its first year, including January sales.

我們的私募股權策略 BXPE 在第一年就已經成長到 80 多億美元，包括 1 月的銷售額。

And for BREIT, flows trended favorably with net repurchase requests in December, down 97% from the peak.

對於 BREIT 而言，12 月的淨回購請求流量趨勢良好，較高峰下降了 97%。

We raised an additional $3.7 billion for the private wealth perpetuals in January, as Steve highlighted, marking their best month of fundraising from individuals in over 2.5 years.

正如史蒂夫所強調的，我們在一月份為私人財富永續基金額外籌集了 37 億美元，這是兩年半以來該基金從個人投資者籌集資金最多的一個月。

This included more than $1 billion each from BCRED, BXPE and our new infrastructure strategy.

其中包括來自 BCRED、BXPE 和我們新的基礎設施策略的各 10 多億美元資金。

The launch of the infrastructure strategy marked the largest ever first close for a vehicle of its kind and was 5 times to 6 times the size of competitors product launches.

基礎設施策略的推出標誌著同類車輛歷史上規模最大的首次亮相，規模是競爭對手產品發布的5倍至6倍。

To give you the sense of the strength of our brand in this channel, over 90% of advisers who allocated to this strategy had previously allocated to another Blackstone perpetual vehicle and over 50% allocated to all four of our perpetual flagships.

為了讓您了解我們品牌在此管道的實力，超過90% 的分配給此策略的顧問之前曾分配給另一隻黑石永久投資工具，超過50% 的顧問分配給了我們所有的四個永久旗艦產品。

BREIT's exceptional performance, 9.5% net annual return since inception for its largest share class to a real estate superstorm has helped us here a lot.

BREIT 的出色表現，自成立以來其最大份額類別的淨年回報率高達 9.5%，這對我們幫助很大。

We're now in the process of launching our multi-asset credit product, as discussed previously, targeting the first half of this year.

如同先前所討論的，我們目前正在推出多元資產信貸產品，目標是在今年上半年推出。

We see enormous opportunity ahead in the $85 trillion private wealth market.

我們看到，85兆美元的私人財富市場蘊藏著巨大的機會。

Our drawdown fund area is also benefiting from robust client engagement today with the tenor of discussions feeling far better than it had in several years.

如今，我們的提取基金領域也受益於客戶的積極參與，討論的氣氛比過去幾年好得多。

We held major things in Q4 for our real estate credit flagship, bringing it to $7.1 billion so far.

我們在第四季度為我們的房地產信貸旗艦產品舉辦了大型活動，迄今為止其規模已達 71 億美元。

European real estate, which has raised $9.5 billion to date and our private equity energy transition strategy, which has raised $5.2 billion, all of which will soon complete fundraising.

歐洲房地產迄今已籌集 95 億美元，我們的私募股權能源轉型策略迄今已籌集 52 億美元，所有這些項目都將很快完成融資。

We raised additional capital for our opportunistic credit strategy, bringing it to over $4 billion and held initial closings of $1.6 billion for our new life sciences flagship, targeting at least the size of the prior $5 billion fund.

我們為機會信貸策略籌集了額外資金，使其超過 40 億美元，並為我們新的生命科學旗艦項目進行了 16 億美元的初始募集，目標是至少達到之前 50 億美元基金的規模。

We will also soon begin raising the new vintages of a number of other highly successful strategies including private equity Asia, for which we expect very significant closings in the coming months, along with private equity secondaries, GP stakes and tactical opportunities.

我們也很快開始籌集其他一些非常成功的策略的新資金，包括亞洲私募股權，我們預計未來幾個月將有非常重要的成交額，同時還有私募股權二級市場、GP 股權和戰術機會。

Overall, the fundraising outlook is quite positive for the firm.

總體而言，該公司的融資前景非常樂觀。

Investor affinity for Blackstone is as high today as ever, and it all ties back to investment performance.

如今，投資人對黑石的親和力一如既往地高漲，而這一切都與投資績效息息相關。

As you'll hear from Michael in a moment, we again reported strong returns across nearly every area of the firm in the fourth quarter.

正如您稍後會從邁克爾那裡聽到的，我們再次報告第四季度公司幾乎所有領域都實現了強勁的回報。

Our LPs have benefited significantly from the way we've positioned the firm it and their capital, including building the largest third-party credit complex, the largest data center business, one of the largest energy infrastructure platforms in a leading life science business and what we believe is the largest alternatives platform in India.

我們的 LP 從我們對公司及其資本的定位方式中受益匪淺，包括打造最大的第三方信貸綜合體、最大的資料中心業務、領先的生命科學業務中最大的能源基礎設施平台之一，以及我們相信這是印度最大的替代平台。

These areas have continued to outperform, and we believe will drive outstanding future results for our clients as well.

這些領域持續表現出色，我們相信也將為我們的客戶帶來出色的未來業績。

In real estate, however, our equity-oriented funds were down in the fourth quarter as the portfolio absorbed the 80 basis point increase in the 10-year treasury yield and our non-US holdings were also impacted by the stronger US dollar.

然而，在房地產方面，我們的股票基金在第四季度出現下滑，因為投資組合吸收了 10 年期公債殖利率 80 個基點的增幅，而且我們的非美國持股也受到美元走強的影響。

We wouldn't expect to see a move of this magnitude in treasury yields going forward given the underlying inflation data.

考慮到基礎通膨數據，我們預期未來公債殖利率不會有如此幅度的變動。

And while disappointing in the near term, our portfolio is in excellent shape with cash flows growing solidly overall across virtually all our real estate strategies.

儘管短期內表現令人失望，但我們的投資組合狀況良好，幾乎所有房地產策略的現金流總體上都在穩步增長。

One year ago, we said that real estate values were bottoming, but that the recovery would take time and was unlikely to be the

一年前，我們說過房地產價值正在觸底，但復甦需要時間，而且不太可能成為

[BBB shape].

【BBB 形狀】。

That's exactly what happened.

事實確實如此。

We remain firm believers that a sustained commercial real estate recovery is underway.

我們堅信商業房地產正在持續復甦。

Debt markets have vastly improved as borrowing spreads tightened by approximately 50% from the 2023 wise and CMBS issuance was up nearly threefold in 2024.

債務市場已大幅改善，因為借貸利差自 2023 年以來收緊了約 50%，而 2024 年 CMBS 發行量增加了近三倍。

At the same time, new construction starts are down dramatically from virtually all types of real estate, including by two-third from 22 levels in US logistics and apartments, our largest sectors.

與此同時，幾乎所有類型的房地產新開工量都大幅下降，其中美國最大的兩個行業——物流和公寓，新開工量下降了三分之二。

Meanwhile, demand is resilient with the potential for acceleration in the context of a stronger US economy.

同時，在美國經濟走強的背景下，需求具有彈性並有加速的潛力。

Given our conviction, we deployed $25 billion in real estate in 2024, up nearly 70% year over year, and we expect to continue to deploy at scale.

基於我們的信念，我們在 2024 年向房地產領域部署了 250 億美元，年增近 70%，我們預計將繼續大規模部署。

Real estate is a cyclical asset class that has been through a cyclical downturn.

房地產是一種週期性資產類別，經歷過週期性的衰退。

And we believe Blackstone is the best positioned firm in the world to benefit from the recovery.

我們相信，黑石集團是全球最有可能從經濟復甦中獲益的公司。

In closing, the firm is in terrific shape by any measure.

最後，無論以何種標準衡量，該公司的狀況都非常好。

We expect to achieve great things on behalf of all of our investors.

我們期望代表所有投資者取得偉大的成就。

And with that, I will turn things over to Michael Chae.

接下來我將把事情交給 Michael Chae。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，喬恩，大家早安。

Our fourth quarter results represented an exceptional finish to an outstanding year, and we entered 2025 in a position of significant strength.

我們的第四季業績為出色的一年畫上了圓滿句號，我們將以強勁實力邁入 2025 年。

I'll first review financial results and will then discuss investment performance and the outlook.

我將首先回顧財務結果，然後討論投資績效和前景。

Starting with results.

從結果開始。

We reported the best quarter of fee-related earnings in the firm's history and one of the two best quarters of distributable earnings.

我們報告了公司歷史上費用相關收益最好的一個季度，以及可分配收益最好的兩個季度之一。

We saw the full benefit of multiple drawdown funds that were activated throughout the year, key perpetual strategies continue to scale significantly, including the very notable contribution from the BIP infrastructure business, and we believe net realizations have begun to move off cyclical lows.

我們看到了全年啟動的多個提取基金的全部好處，關鍵的永續策略繼續大幅擴大規模，其中包括來自BIP 基礎設施業務的非常顯著的貢獻，並且我們相信淨實現已經開始擺脫週期性低點。

First, with respect to fee-related earnings.

第一，關於收費收入。

In the fourth quarter, FRE grew a remarkable 76% year over year to a record $1.8 billion or $1.50 per share.

第四季度，FRE 年增 76%，達到創紀錄的 18 億美元或每股 1.50 美元。

Management fees rose 12% to a record $1.9 billion, including the 60th straight quarter of year over year base management fee growth at the firm.

管理費上漲 12%，達到創紀錄的 19 億美元，其中該公司基本管理費連續第 60 季年增。

We activated the investment period for multiple major drawdown funds in 2024, which contributed full fees in Q4.

我們在 2024 年啟動了多個重大回撤基金的投資期，這些基金在第四季度貢獻了全部費用。

Alongside that, key perpetual strategies, BIP, BCRED and BXPE continue to grow in scale and contribution to the firm's financials with their combined NAV up nearly 50% year over year.

除此之外，關鍵的永續策略 BIP、BCRED 和 BXPE 的規模和對公司財務的貢獻持續成長，其合併資產淨值年增近 50%。

Fee-related performance revenues increased more than eightfold year over year in Q4 to $1.4 billion, driven by BIP's major scheduled crystallization event with respect to three years of substantial accrued gains, BXPE's first significant crystallization event with respect to full year 2024 gains and the steadily growing contribution for BCRED and our direct lending platform overall with a 47% year over year increase in these revenues for the credit insurance segment.

第四季費用相關績效收入年增八倍以上，達到14 億美元，這得益於BIP 對三年大量應計收益的重大預定結晶事件、BXPE 對2024 年全年收益的首次重大結晶事件以及穩步成長的BCRED 和我們整體直接貸款平台的貢獻不斷增長，其中信用保險部門的收入同比增長 47%。

In terms of distributable earnings, DE grew 56% year over year to $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter or $1.69 per common share.

在可分配收益方面，DE 第四季年增 56% 至 22 億美元，或每股 1.69 美元。

In addition to the strong growth in FRE, net realizations increased 42% year over year to $601 million, the highest level in 10 quarters.

除了FRE的強勁成長之外，淨實現額年增42%，達到6.01億美元，創10季以來的最高水準。

We executed a number of realizations across both the public and private portfolios in the quarter, concentrated in corporate private equity.

本季度，我們在公共和私人投資組合中執行了多項變現，主要集中在企業私募股權。

These included the sale of public energy positions along with the IPO and sale of a portion of our stock in an India-based company at a multiple of invested capital of over 5 times with the stock trading up further since then.

這些措施包括出售公共能源部位以及首次公開發行 (IPO) 和以超過投資資本 5 倍的價格出售我們在印度公司的部分股票，此後該股票交易價格進一步上漲。

In addition, our multi-asset investing segment, BXMA generated outstanding investment performance in 2024, including the best year for the absolute return composite in 15 years.

此外，我們的多元資產投資部門 BXMA 在 2024 年取得了出色的投資業績，其中絕對回報綜合指數創下了 15 年來的最佳年份。

The BXMA crystallized incentive fees for most of its open ended strategies annually in Q4, and the segment's performance revenues increased 144% year over year to $338 million.

BXMA 在第四季度實現了大部分開放式策略的激勵費用，該部門的績效收入年增 144%，達到 3.38 億美元。

Now turning to the full year.

現在轉向全年。

The firm delivered strong results amid a complex external environment in 2024 with robust growth across all key financial and operating metrics.

2024 年，在複雜的外部環境下，該公司取得了強勁的業績，所有關鍵財務和營運指標均實現強勁成長。

Distributable earnings grew 18% to $6 billion.

可分配獲利成長 18% 至 60 億美元。

Fee-related

費用相關

earnings increased 21% to a full year record of $5.3 billion.

獲利成長21%，全年達到創紀錄的53億美元。

Net realizations rose 12% to $1.4 billion, supported by the strong performance in BXMA and yet another example of the benefits of our diverse business mix.

淨實現利潤上漲 12%，達到 14 億美元，這得益於 BXMA 的強勁表​​現，也是我們多元化業務組合優勢的又一例證。

Firm's expansive breadth of growth engines lifted total AUM up 8% to more than $1.1 trillion another record, with $171 billion of inflows for the year.

該公司廣泛的成長引擎推動總資產管理規模成長 8%，達到 1.1 兆美元以上，再創歷史新高，全年流入資金達 1,710 億美元。

Inflows deployment and overall fund appreciation all accelerated meaningfully in 2024 expanding the foundation of future value.

2024 年，資金流入部署和整體基金升值均顯著加速，擴大了未來價值的基礎。

We achieved these results against a backdrop where the market for large-scale realizations was very challenged for much of the year and the significant underlying earnings power of our real estate business has yet to re-emerge, reflecting the breadth and power of our platform that Steve and Jon described.

在我們取得這些成績的背景下，今年大部分時間，大規模實現的市場都面臨巨大挑戰，而我們房地產業務的顯著潛在盈利能力尚未重新顯現，反映了我們平台的廣度和力量，史蒂夫和喬恩描述。

Moving to investment performance.

轉向投資績效。

The firm delivered strong returns in almost every area in the fourth quarter.

該公司第四季在幾乎所有領域都取得了強勁的回報。

Our corporate private equity funds appreciated 4.9% and 17% for the full year.

我們的企業私募股權基金全年升值4.9%和17%。

Our operating companies overall reported stable mid-single-digit year over year revenue growth in the quarter, along with continued notable margin strength.

我們的營運公司本季整體營收年增在個位數成長，利潤率也持續保持強勁。

Our infrastructure business reported 4.8% appreciation in the fourth quarter and 21% for the year.

我們的基礎設施業務第四季成長了 4.8%，全年成長了 21%。

In credit, our non-investment grade private credit strategies generated a gross return of 3.1% in the fourth quarter and 16% for 2024.

在信貸方面，我們的非投資等級私人信貸策略在第四季度實現了 3.1% 的總回報率，2024 年實現了 16% 的總回報率。

We continue to see resilient fundamentals across the credit portfolio and the LTM default rate across our 2,000-plus noninvestment grade credits remained under 50 basis points.

我們繼續看到信貸組合的基本面保持穩健，我們 2,000 多個非投資級信貸的 LTM 違約率仍保持在 50 個基點以下。

BXMA reported a 3.7% gross return for the absolute return composite, the 19th consecutive quarter of positive performance and 13% for the year.

BXMA 公佈絕對回報綜合指數總回報率為 3.7%，連續第 19 季實現正成長，全年回報率為 13%。

BXMA has generated compelling all-weather returns in liquid markets, helping to insulate our LPs from the volatility of the past several years.

BXMA 在流動性市場中產生了令人信服的全天候回報，幫助我們的 LP 免受過去幾年波動的影響。

Indeed, since the start of 2021, BXMA's cumulative absolute return composite, net of fees is 34% or nearly double the traditional 60-40 portfolio.

事實上，自 2021 年初以來，BXMA 的累積絕對回報率（扣除費用）為 34%，幾乎是傳統 60-40 投資組合的兩倍。

In real estate, the opportunistic funds declined 5.1% in the fourth quarter and 4% for the full year, while the core plus funds declined 0.8% in the quarter and were stable for the year.

房地產領域，機會型基金第四季下跌 5.1%，全年下跌 4%，核心加型基金第四季下跌 0.8%，全年維持穩定。

As Jon discussed, the fourth quarter was impacted by the sharp increase in treasury yields and the stronger US dollar.

正如Jon所討論的，第四季受到國債殖利率大幅上升和美元走強的影響。

Outside of our major reported business lines, the growth and performance of other key strategies further highlights the firm's ability to innovate and build businesses.

除了我們報告的主要業務線之外，其他關鍵策略的成長和表現進一步凸顯該公司創新和建立業務的能力。

Our dedicated life sciences platform delivered standout performance in 2024, with the funds appreciating 11.3% in the fourth quarter and 33% for the full year, driven by the achievement of positive milestones for multiple treatments under development.

我們專門的生命科學平台在 2024 年表現出色，得益於正在開發的多種治療方法取得積極的里程碑，該平台的基金在第四季度上漲了 11.3%，全年上漲了 33%。

Our real estate credit high-yield drawdown funds appreciated 4.4% in Q4 and 18% for the year, underpinned by resilient credit performance in its real estate loan portfolio.

我們的房地產信貸高收益提取基金在第四季度升值 4.4%，全年升值 18%，這得益於房地產貸款組合強勁的信貸表現。

And our GP stakes business appreciated 4.1% in the fourth quarter and 28% for the year, reflecting its focus on top-performing managers in private markets.

我們的 GP 股權業務在第四季度上漲了 4.1%，全年上漲了 28%，反映出我們專注於私募市場中表現優異的管理者。

The resiliency and strength of the firm's investment performance continues to power our growth.

公司投資績效的彈性和實力持續推動我們的成長。

Turning to the outlook.

展望未來。

The firm is advancing with strong momentum across multiple drivers.

公司在多種驅動力下正強勁前進。

First, in our drawdown fund area, in 2025, we will see the full year benefit from funds that were activated throughout 2024.

首先，在我們的提取基金領域，到 2025 年，我們將看到 2024 年全年啟動的基金帶來的全年收益。

Second, our platform and perpetual strategies has continued to expand overall now comprising 46% of the firm's fee-earning AUM, setting a higher baseline for management fees as we enter 2025.

其次，我們的平台和永久策略整體持續擴大，目前占公司收費資產管理規模的 46%，為進入 2025 年的管理費設定了更高的基準。

In addition, BXPE is now eligible to generate fee-related performance revenues on a quarterly basis and our infrastructure strategy for individual investors in its first year will be eligible in Q4 of 2025 with respect to full year 2025 games.

此外，BXPE 現在已有資格按季度產生與費用相關的績效收入，並且我們針對個人投資者的第一年基礎設施策略將在 2025 年第四季度符合 2025 年全年遊戲的資格。

And while BIP's significant Q4 crystallization event will not recur in 2025.

而BIP重要的Q4結晶事件在2025年不會重現。

We do expect smaller crystallizations periodically starting in the second quarter of this year.

我們確實預計從今年第二季開始會週期性地出現較小規模的結晶。

Third, there is significant underlying momentum in our credit insurance business, as you've heard this morning. segments FRE and DE grew 26% and 24%, respectively in 2024 and with robust inflows and record deployment, the business is exceptionally well positioned to deliver strong financial performance again in 2025.

第三，正如大家今天早上所聽到的，我們的信用保險業務有著顯著的潛在發展動能。 2024 年，FRE 和 DE 部門分別成長了 26% 和 24%，憑藉強勁的資金流入和創紀錄的部署，該業務完全有能力在 2025 年再次實現強勁的財務業績。

Finally, with respect to realizations, we see a much more constructive environment for realizations in 2025.

最後，關於實現，我們看到 2025 年的實現環境更加有利。

In the near term, we would expect disposition activity to be concentrated in our private equity strategies, as real estate exit markets strengthen over time and for overall activity levels to be meaningfully higher in the second half of the year.

短期內，我們預計處置活動將集中在我們的私募股權策略中，因為房地產退出市場隨著時間的推移而加強，並且今年下半年的整體活動水平將顯著提高。

Meanwhile, net accrued performance revenue on the firm's balance sheet stood at $6.3 billion at year-end or $5.14 per share.

同時，該公司資產負債表上的淨應計業績收入在年底為 63 億美元，即每股 5.14 美元。

And performance revenue eligible AUM in the ground reached a record $561 billion.

而業績收入中符合條件的地表 AUM 也達到了創紀錄的 5,610 億美元。

These are strong indicators of our future realization potential.

這些都是我們未來實現潛力的強大指標。

In closing, we are highly confident in the multiyear picture of growth at Blackstone.

最後，我們對黑石集團多年的成長前景充滿信心。

The power of our platform has driven extraordinary results for our investors, and we believe it will continue to do so in the future.

我們平台的力量為我們的投資者帶來了非凡的業績，我們相信未來它也將繼續這樣做。

With that, we thank you for joining the call.

最後，我們感謝您參加此次電話會議。

I would like to open it up now for questions.

現在我想開始回答大家的提問。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指令）

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good Morning.

早安.

Jon, I was hoping you could expand on some of the fundamentals you're seeing in the real estate market that gives you the confidence on the recovery.

喬恩，我希望你可以詳細說明你所看到的房地產市場的一些基本面，這些基本面會讓你對復甦充滿信心。

And while the recovery has been slow, as you highlighted in 2024, how do you see that ramping in terms of 2025.

正如您在 2024 年所強調的那樣，儘管復甦一直很緩慢，但您認為 2025 年的復甦將如何發展？

Good question.

好問題。

I would say when we think about the conditions for real estate recovery, you look for a number of things.

我想說，當我們思考房地產復甦的條件時，你會考慮很多事情。

First, you obviously want demand which is tied to economic growth.

首先，你顯然希望需求與經濟成長掛鉤。

And we've got a pretty healthy US economy, which leads to demand for logistics and apartments and hotels.

美國經濟相當健康，這帶來了對物流、公寓和飯店的需求。

So I think if the economy accelerates further, that's certainly a positive.

因此我認為如果經濟進一步加速，那肯定是件好事。

Then, of course, supply, which I think is the key element here.

然後，當然是供應，我認為這是這裡的關鍵因素。

We've seen a decline from 3%-plus new supply starts back in 2022 in logistics and rental housing, our biggest areas that's declined now to 1%, so a two-third decline, which is very helpful.

我們看到，2022 年物流和租賃住房的新供應量下降了 3% 以上，這是我們最大的領域，現在下降了 1%，所以下降了三分之二，這非常有幫助。

So we think cash flows as we move over time will be pretty good.

因此我們認為隨著時間的推移，現金流將會相當不錯。

They actually have been strong throughout this challenging period the last few years, which really hit real estate, of course, has been the cost of capital.

在過去幾年這個充滿挑戰的時期，他們實際上一直表現強勁，而真正為房地產帶來打擊的當然是資本成本。

And there, what we see is spreads have tightened quite a bit.

我們看到利差已經縮窄了不少。

Sort of overall borrowing costs have gone from say, 9% to 6%.

整體借貸成本從 9% 上升到 6%。

That's obviously helpful.

這顯然是有幫助的。

And the availability of capital has improved.

資本的可用性也得到了改善。

So CMBS last year was up threefold, and that's obviously very important for transaction activity.

因此，去年 CMBS 成長了三倍，這對交易活動來說顯然非常重要。

In the near term, that 80 basis point move as you saw in our numbers, obviously had a negative impact. but that's now been absorbed by the market.

從短期來看，正如您從我們的數據中看到的那樣，80 個基點的變動顯然產生了負面影響。但現在已被市場吸收。

And so I think the combination of favorable cash flows and probably a more stable rate environment going forward gets us on this path.

因此，我認為有利的現金流和未來更穩定的利率環境將使我們走上這條道路。

Ultimately, hard assets have to revert to replacement costs.

最終，硬資產必須恢復到重置成本。

With a growing economy, you need more real estate.

隨著經濟的成長，您需要更多的房地產。

And so rents and ultimately values have to grow.

因此租金和最終價值都必須成長。

So the path of travel is clear, the slope may be a little different, but the reason we're leaning in is because we see that we're firmly on this recovery path for real estate.

因此，前進的路徑是明確的，坡度可能略有不同，但我們之所以傾向於此，是因為我們看到我們堅定地走在房地產復甦的道路上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Craig Siegenthaler, Bank of America.

美國銀行的克雷格·西根塔勒（Craig Siegenthaler）。

Good morning, Steve, John, hope you're both doing well.

早安，史蒂夫、約翰，希望你們一切都好。

We wanted to circle back on Michael's monetization commentary and the expected ramp in transaction activity.

我們想回顧一下邁克爾的貨幣化評論以及交易活動的預期成長。

Blackstone is still a net buyer of assets, but given the macro setup, with the high stock market valuations and anticipated rise in IPOs, when do you expect to inflect and be a net seller of assets in corporate private equity.

黑石集團仍然是資產的淨買家，但考慮到宏觀環境，隨著股市估值高企以及 IPO 預期上漲，您預計何時會轉變並成為企業私募股權資產的淨賣家。

And then on Michael's prepared comments again, how far behind is the real estate cycle relative to private equity?

然後再回答麥可準備好的評論，房地產週期相對於私募股權落後多少？

Craig, I think a few things.

克雷格，我想到了一些事情。

The environment is clearly here getting better.

這裡的環境顯然正在變得更好。

Again, the strength of the economy, the health of the equity market, the S&P being up 60% the IPO market, the pipeline for IPOs now is double where it was a year ago.

再次，經濟強勁，股市健康，標準普爾指數在 IPO 市場上上漲了 60%，目前 IPO 數量是一年前的兩倍。

Those are very constructive facts.

這些都是非常有建設性的事實。

We think large profitable companies can go public, the debt markets improving, certainly helpful both investment grade and high-yield spreads are basically at record types.

我們認為，盈利​​能力強的大型公司可以上市，債務市場不斷改善，這無疑會有所幫助，投資級和高收益利差基本上都處於創紀錄水平。

Base rates are still a bit elevated, but the debt market is very constructive.

基準利率仍然略高，但債務市場非常活躍。

We've got a regulatory climate for M&A that is far better for us.

我們的併購監管環境對我們來說好得多。

Strategics can now start to buy again and some of those dialogues are picking up.

策略投資者現在可以開始再次購買，並且一些對話正在升溫。

And then you do have this sort of desire for people to get transactions after three years being on the sidelines.

然後你確實有這種渴望，希望人們在三年的觀望之後能夠進行交易。

So we sort of see the ingredients for a very positive M&A cycle coming together.

因此，我們看到非常積極的併購週期的因素正在聚集在一起。

We did see a little bit of a slowdown in the fourth quarter given the election and some volatility around rates.

考慮到選舉和利率波動，我們確實看到第四季經濟略有放緩。

But I think it's going to build during the year.

但我認為它將在今年內建成。

To your question and Michael's comments, private equity is definitely going to be stronger.

對於您的問題和邁克爾的評論，私募股權肯定會變得更加強大。

I think there, we have a number of things where we'll see realizations earlier on.

我認為，我們有許多事情將會提前實現。

Real estate, we need this recovery to take a little more time.

房地產，我們需要更多的時間來實現復甦。

So we see that as more back half of the year, certainly not at the beginning of the year just given the nature of that market sort of healing over time.

因此，我們認為這更多的是在今年下半年，肯定不是在年初，只是考慮到市場隨著時間的推移而逐漸復甦的性質。

So overall, I think a better environment certainly in '25 and '24, but more back-end weighted and first half of the year, definitely more private equity focused.

因此總體而言，我認為 2025 年和 2024 年的環境肯定會更好，但後端權重會更高，而今年上半年肯定會更加重視私募股權。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Cyprus, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的邁克爾·塞浦路斯。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Just a question on AI and data centers.

我只想問一下關於人工智慧和資料中心的問題。

Just curious how you're thinking about the evolving investment opportunity around AI, particularly in the infrastructure layer with data centers and power.

只是好奇您如何看待圍繞人工智慧不斷發展的投資機會，特別是在資料中心和電力的基礎設施層。

We've seen a lot of capital flow into the space, and you guys at Blackstone have been quite active in this space in particular.

我們看到大量資本流入該領域，尤其是黑石集團在這個領域非常活躍。

But just given some of the recent developments, for example, like with Deep Seek over the weekend that suggests that AI models maybe could be a bit less capital and energy intensive.

但考慮到最近的一些發展，例如週末的 Deep Seek，這表明人工智慧模型可能可以減少一些資本和能源密集程度。

Just curious how attractive do you see the infrastructure layer here moving forward?

只是好奇您認為這裡的基礎設施層未來發展有多大吸引力？

How much more capital investment do you guys see needed across the industry?

你們認為整個產業還需要多少資本投入？

And how are you thinking about potential shifts for investment opportunities across into the application layer.

您如何看待投資機會向應用層的潛在轉變？

So Mike, we've obviously been spending a lot of time the last week looking at the impact of Deep Seek.

麥克，顯然，我們上週花了很多時間研究 Deep Seek 的影響。

I'd start with our data center business, which is the largest in the world.

我先從我們的資料中心業務開始，它是世界上最大的資料中心業務。

We have $80 billion of leased data centers.

我們擁有價值 800 億美元的租賃資料中心。

The good news in that business is these are long-term leased data centers with some of the biggest companies in the world.

該業務的好消息是，這些都是與世界上一些最大的公司長期租賃的資料中心。

And we do not build data center speculatively anywhere in the world.

我們不會在世界任何地方投機性地建立資料中心。

So we have a very prudent approach when we think about data centers.

因此，我們在考慮資料中心時採取非常謹慎的方法。

The real question and the heart of your question is what is demand going forward?

真正的問題和問題的核心是未來的需求是什麼？

And on that front, we would echo what you're hearing, I think, from a lot of commentators, which is the cost of compute is coming down pretty dramatically.

在這方面，我想我們會重複很多評論員的觀點，那就是計算成本正在大幅下降。

But at the same time, that's going to lead to more usage to more adoption.

但同時，這將導致更多的使用和採用。

And so what does that mean for the physical infrastructure side?

那麼這對於實體基礎設施方面意味著什麼？

I'd go to the calls last night for both Meta and Microsoft.

我昨晚參加了 Meta 和微軟的電話會議。

They talked about the importance of physical infrastructure.

他們談到了實體基礎設施的重要性。

Mark Zuckerberg said that he thought it was a strategic advantage for them.

馬克·祖克柏表示，他認為這對他們來說是一個戰略優勢。

But they did acknowledge that some of this may need to be more fungible.

但他們確實承認，其中一些可能需要更加可替代。

Maybe there's a little less training that's done as a result of less intensity, but at the same time, there's more inference, maybe there's more cloud, maybe there's more to do with enterprise.

也許由於強度較低，訓練量會少一些，但同時，推理會增多，雲可能會增多，與企業相關的事務可能會增多。

So we have a sense in talking to our clients also that there's a belief as usage goes up significantly.

因此，我們在與客戶交談時也感覺到，隨著使用量大幅上升，他們也抱持著這樣一種信念。

There's still a vital need for data centers.

資料中心的需求仍然迫切。

The form of that use may change.

該使用形式可能會改變。

And related to that, power usage, we think will continue because our lives are migrating online in all these questions.

與此相關，我們認為電力使用將會持續下去，因為我們的生活在所有這些問題上都轉移到了網路上。

There'll be even more questions coming even if the amount of power used on an individual question goes down.

即便單一問題所消耗的電量減少，還會有更多的問題出現。

So we still think there's a vital need for physical infrastructure, data centers and power.

因此，我們仍然認為實體基礎設施、資料中心和電力的需求至關重要。

Some of it may change.

其中一些可能會改變。

And the good news for our investors is we're not doing things speculatively.

對我們的投資人來說，好消息是我們所做的事情並不是投機性的。

It's based on the demand signals from our tenants.

這是基於我們租戶的需求訊號。

That's when we go out and spend the big dollars to build these things.

那時我們就會花大錢去建造這些東西。

So we still think it's a very important segment, and there's a way to run.

因此我們仍然認為這是一個非常重要的部分，而且有辦法實現。

But obviously, we're watching what's happening very closely.

但顯然，我們正在密切關注事態發展。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Kyle Voigt, KBW.

凱爾·沃格特（Kyle Voigt），KBW。

Hi Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Maybe a question on BXPE the last few quarters have been in a healthy $1 billion to $2 billion zone in terms of quarterly fundraising.

也許關於 BXPE 的一個問題是，過去幾個季度，季度籌資額一直處於 10 億至 20 億美元的健康區間。

I guess, first, can you remind us where you're at in terms of distribution of the product, whether that's number of platforms or international breadth and what the runway looks like to expand that.

我想，首先，您能否提醒我們您在產品分銷方面的狀況，無論是平台數量還是國際廣度，以及擴展的管道是什麼樣的。

And then with respect to the $1 billion to $2 billion quarterly inflow range, is that the pace that you are really comfortable growing this type of product or now with having some investment track record and entering the second year of the product.

然後關於 10 億到 20 億美元的季度流入範圍，這是您真正適合發展此類產品的速度嗎？

Is there comfort in ramping the flows above that $1 billion to $2 billion quarterly pace if there is demand?

如果有需求，是否可以將季度資金流量增加到 10 億至 20 億美元以上？

Well, we've been steadily building out our partnerships distributors on BXPE.

嗯，我們一直在 BXPE 上穩步建立我們的合作夥伴分銷商。

This is always the way you start with a smaller number as you work your way through the first two or three years, you steadily expand within the United States and geographically we're sort of on that path.

我們總是從較小的數字開始，在最初的兩三年裡，逐漸在美國境內擴張，從地理上講，我們也正在沿著這條道路前進。

I don't know if we quote exactly how many distributors we use, but the number continues to grow.

我不知道我們是否確切地說明了我們使用了多少分銷商，但這個數量不斷增長。

We've had some good success in places like Canada recently.

我們最近在加拿大等地取得了一些成功。

The key for these products is investment performance.

這些產品的關鍵是投資績效。

And BXPE did a terrific job, the first year.

第一年，BXPE 表現十分出色。

And the first year is the hardest year because you're just getting the product started.

第一年是最艱難的一年，因為你才剛開始推出產品。

You don't have existing assets, you're sort of going from a standing start.

您沒有現成的資產，您只是從零開始。

We delivered very strong performance.

我們的業績非常出色。

And it really speaks to, I think, the unique scale we have.

我認為這確實體現了我們獨特的規模。

We have obviously large-scale corporate private equity.

我們顯然擁有大規模的企業私募股權。

We do it in the US, Europe and Asia.

我們在美國、歐洲和亞洲都這樣做。

We've got core private equity, tactical opportunities.

我們擁有核心私募股權和戰術機會。

We've got growth, we've got life sciences, we've got secondaries.

我們有成長，我們有生命科學，我們有二級市場。

The breadth of that platform has allowed us to deploy the capital real time.

該平台的廣度使我們能夠即時部署資本。

In terms of where we go from here, we had a terrific month in terms of fundraising for BXPE in January.

就我們下一步的目標而言，一月份我們為 BXPE 籌集資金的月份非常出色。

But I think it will be driven by performance.

但我認為這將由業績驅動。

We have the capabilities to deploy more at scale.

我們有能力大規模部署更多業務。

I feel great confidence at that.

我對此充滿信心。

I just think it's, we deliver performance, we deliver for the clients.

我只是認為，我們提供服務，為客戶提供服務。

They're going to get more and more comfortable.

他們會變得越來越舒適。

We're going to open with more distributors and the product will continue to grow.

我們將與更多的經銷商合作，產品也將繼續成長。

We've done this in the past with both BREIT and BCRED.

我們過去曾與 BREIT 和 BCRED 合作過。

We think this is a similar model.

我們認為這是一個類似的模型。

But again, we've got to deliver for the customers.

但同樣，我們必須為客戶提供服務。

We've got to deploy the capital.

我們必須部署資本。

I've got a lot of confidence in those areas.

我對這些領域非常有信心。

And given our strength in the channel and our brand strength, it's really powerful.

考慮到我們在通路和品牌方面的實力，它確實很強大。

I mean the fact that 50% of our financial advisers who invested in BXINFRA are invested in all four of our products just speaks to that powerful network effect.

我的意思是，我們投資 BXINFRA 的 50% 的財務顧問也投資了我們所有的四種產品，這一事實說明了強大的網路效應。

And financial advisers and their underlying clients know and trust the Blackstone name and that is so important.

財務顧問和他們的底層客戶了解並信任黑石這個名字，這一點非常重要。

And so we're dedicated to delivering for them.

因此我們致力於為他們提供服務。

If we do that, this can grow a lot just like our other products in this space.

如果我們這樣做，它就能像我們在這個領域的其他產品一樣大幅成長。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨（Bill Katz），TD Cowen 公司。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much for the commentary.

非常感謝您的評論。

You didn't talk at all about retirement.

你根本沒有談論退休。

I know it's an area that the whole industry is sort of incrementally focused on, but you did sort of mention the perhaps a more favorable regulatory backdrop.

我知道這是整個行業逐漸關注的領域，但您確實提到了可能更有利的監管背景。

How do you sort of see the evolution of the commentary coming out of your conversations with the regulators as that sort of takes shape into 2025 on the Trump administration.

隨著 2025 年川普政府的政策逐漸成型，您如何看待您與監管機構對話時所發表的評論的演變？

What should we be looking for, for that opportunity set to potentially open up from a real estate perspective?

從房地產角度來看，我們應該尋找什麼來抓住可能出現的機會？

Well, I guess where we start is the way the defined contributions and retirement business has evolved.

好吧，我想我們應該從固定繳款和退休業務的發展方式開始。

And I do think it's created a bit of a sort of have not environment.

我確實認為它創造了一種「一無所有」的環境。

So if you think about it, wealthy individuals are able to access our products through financial advisers and get the benefit of strong long-term returns and compounding.

所以如果你想想的話，富人可以透過財務顧問獲得我們的產品，並獲得豐厚的長期回報和複利。

If you were an employee at a major corporate sort of pre-2005, you probably have the benefit of pension fund where people are working hard every day to deliver these returns, allocating to alternatives.

如果您是 2005 年之前某家大型企業的員工，那麼您可能享受退休基金的福利，因為那裡的員工每天都在努力工作，以獲取回報，並將其分配給其他選擇。

If you work at a state pension fund today, you also are getting that same benefit.

如果您現在在國家退休基金工作，您也會獲得相同的福利。

But for the vast majority of private sector workers in the United States, they are giving a 401(k) plan where because of the litigation environment, they basically focus on the lowest fees and it's not about long-term performance.

但對於美國絕大多數私部門的員工來說，他們提供的是 401（k）計劃，由於訴訟環境，他們基本上關注最低費用，而不考慮長期績效。

And it would seem highly logical to us that at some point in, for instance, target date funds with the right gatekeepers and controls, picking the right managers that you would put private assets into this marketplace.

在我們看來，在某個時候，例如，目標日期基金擁有正確的看門人和控制者，選擇了正確的經理，你將私人資產投入到這個市場，這似乎是非常合乎邏輯的。

So individual investors, all individual investors could get the benefit for retirement.

因此個人投資者，所有個人投資者都可以獲得退休福利。

And when you think about who should be in the position to do that, if the regulation changes Blackstone given our brand, our performance, the breadth of what we've done and the range of perpetual products we've created, we seem to be uniquely positioned.

當你思考誰應該有能力做到這一點時，如果監管改變了黑石集團，考慮到我們的品牌、我們的業績、我們所做工作的廣度以及我們創造的永久性產品的範圍，我們似乎獨特的定位。

So I think this will happen.

所以我認為這會發生。

It's a question of when.

這是時間問題。

And when it does, as I said, I think we'll be in a good spot.

當它發生時，正如我所說，我認為我們會處於一個有利的位置。

It certainly seems logical given the way the market's developed over time, and we really wanted to democratize access to these products into higher returns, so people can generate more for their retirement.

考慮到市場隨著時間的推移而發展的方式，這當然看起來合乎邏輯，我們確實希望透過民主化的方式讓這些產品能夠帶來更高的回報，以便人們能夠為自己的退休生活創造更多的收益。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore ISI。

This is Kaimon Chung in for Glenn Schorr.

這是 Kaimon Chung，取代 Glenn Schorr。

Some of the insurance companies seem to be looking to do more on their own in private markets.

一些保險公司似乎正在尋求在私人市場上獨立開展更多業務。

I'm just curious what you're seeing and your expectations of further growth with your insurance partnerships.

我只是好奇您所看到的情況以及您對保險合作夥伴關係進一步增長的期望。

And also I heard your comments about Nippon Life.

另外，我還聽到了您對日本生命的評論。

Just want to get more thoughts on the growth opportunities for insurance and credit in Asia?

只是想了解更多關於亞洲保險和信貸成長機會的想法？

And what else are you doing in that region?

您還在該地區做什麼？

Well, I think the biggest change that we've seen in the insurance industry over the last few years is that moving beyond just commercial mortgages into broader private investment-grade credit has gone from something people saw as novelty to a necessity.

嗯，我認為過去幾年我們在保險業看到的最大變化是，它已經從商業抵押貸款擴展到更廣泛的私人投資級信貸，這已經從人們視為新奇事物的東西變成了必需品。

And so I think now if you're competing in the annuity space, certainly in the life space, even the P&C companies now are looking at this that if you can get comparably rated A- credits and get 200 basis points higher spread, that makes you more competitive with your sales organization.

因此，我認為現在如果你在年金領域競爭，當然是在人壽領域，即使是財產和意外傷害保險公司現在也在考慮這個問題，如果你能獲得同等評級的A- 信用，並獲得高出200 個基點的利差，那麼使您與您的銷售組織更具競爭力。

And what we're seeing sort of across the landscape is an embracing of this model where they move a greater percentage of their assets into private investment grade credit.

我們看到，整個產業都開始接受這種模式，他們將更大比例的資產轉移到私人投資等級信貸。

And for us, the reason we're up nearly 20%, we're at $230 billion in insurance is because of this dynamic.

對我們來說，保險業務成長近 20%、達到 2,300 億美元的原因就是這種動態。

And I would say the number of conversations, the scale of the conversations, it seems to be accelerating.

我想說的是，對話的數量、對話的規模似乎都在加速。

And the other comment I would make is the fact that we have an open architecture model.

我想說的另一個事實是，我們有一個開放式架構模型。

We are not an insurance company ourselves with hundreds of billions of liabilities.

我們自己並不是一家擁有數千億美元負債的保險公司。

We are not out there selling these products.

我們沒有銷售這些產品。

We're just a third-party manager, the way the liquid managers used to manage liquid credit and still do on behalf of insurers.

我們只是第三方管理者，就像流動性管理者過去管理流動性信貸那樣，現在仍然代表保險公司這樣做。

They see us as an attractive place to allocate capital.

他們認為我們是配置資本的有吸引力的地方。

We're trusted.

我們值得信賴。

And the scale is really important because no insurer wants too much concentration given their important risk aversion.

規模確實很重要，因為沒有一家保險公司希望集中過高，因為他們非常重視規避風險。

They need diversification.

他們需要多樣化。

So what we're finding is there's a desire to talk to us on a larger strategic basis.

因此，我們發現，他們希望在更廣泛的策略基礎上與我們進行對話。

We've got four of those clients.

我們有四個這樣的客戶。

We now have 23 SMA clients, which is up 3% from where we were at the end of last quarter.

我們目前擁有 23 個 SMA 客戶，比上一季末成長了 3%。

This feels like it's going to continue to grow.

感覺它還會繼續成長。

It's obviously started in the US.

這顯然是從美國開始的。

You referenced Nippon Life, which is a terrific company.

您提到了日本生命，這是一家很棒的公司。

We've seen Asian insurers who are also open to this idea.

我們發現亞洲保險公司也對這個想法持開放態度。

So I think there's opportunity there.

所以我認為那裡有機會。

There's select opportunity in Europe as well.

歐洲也有精選機會。

The key again is do we deliver performance?

關鍵還是我們是否能達到預期的表現？

Can we deliver them higher returns at the same or lower risk?

我們能否以相同或更低的風險為他們帶來更高的回報？

We believe we can.

我們相信我們可以。

And as we continue to scale up with our origination capabilities, being able to speak for larger transactions like we did this $3.5 billion EQT transaction in the midstream space, that's going to put us in a better and better spot.

隨著我們繼續擴大我們的發起能力，能夠代表更大的交易，就像我們在中游領域所做的 35 億美元 EQT 交易一樣，這將使我們處於越來越好的地位。

So I think you will see this business continue to grow in a material way.

因此我認為你會看到這項業務繼續實質成長。

And as an aside, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're also seeing interest in investment-grade private credit now from some of our pension and sovereign wealth funds.

另外，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們現在也看到一些退休金和主權財富基金對投資等級私人信貸感興趣。

It's very early days, but it feels like that's going to grow in momentum.

雖然現在還為時過早，但感覺勢頭會越來越強勁。

But overall, insurance feels like an area where we're going to see a lot of growth in the years ahead, particularly at Blackstone.

但總體而言，保險似乎是未來幾年我們將看到大量成長的領域，尤其是在黑石集團。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Hey, good morning, everybody.

嘿，大家早安。

Thank you for the question.

感謝您的提問。

So staying on credit for a second, really strong fundraising across the platform, and it was really well balanced, which is obviously great to see as well.

因此，暫時保持信用，整個平台的籌款活動非常強勁，而且非常平衡，這顯然也是很高興看到的。

Can you give us a sense of the amount of capital that's sitting on the platform now that's not earning fees yet that will turn on upon deployment?

您能否告訴我們，現在平台上還未賺取費用、部署後會投入使用的資本有多少？

And I guess, in that context, can you talk a little bit about your expectations for credit deployment over the next kind of 12 months or so?

我想，在這種背景下，您能否談談對未來 12 個月左右信貸部署的預期？

And including maybe some of the partnerships, Jon, that you highlighted earlier, I think you said that you've expanded or trying to expand more corporate partnerships in that part of the business.

喬恩，也許包括您之前強調的一些合作夥伴關係，我想您說過您已經擴大或試圖擴大該部分業務的更多企業合作夥伴關係。

Well, as the business grows and broadens, as we continue to move beyond it started, as you know, more opportunistic direct lending.

嗯，隨著業務的成長和擴大，隨著我們不斷超越它，正如你所知，開始了更多機會性的直接貸款。

But as we move into this asset based area, where the penetration from us and the industry is very small, we think this is going to grow a lot.

但隨著我們進入這個以資產為基礎的領域，我們和產業的滲透率都非常小，我們認為這個領域將會大幅成長。

And I think you'll see us partnering more and more with banks, oftentimes sort of on a white label basis where there may not be a big announcement, but they want to move some things off their balance sheets as they want to try to drive higher ROEs we just see, we see a lot of these sort of corporate solutions transactions like EQT, I think we'll see more and more of those.

我認為你會看到我們與銀行的合作越來越多，通常是以白標的方式，可能不會發布重大公告，但他們希望將一些資產從資產負債表中移出，因為他們想嘗試推動我們剛剛看到的更高的ROE，我們看到很多像EQT 這樣的企業解決方案交易，我認為我們會看到越來越多這樣的交易。

I see investment pace growing basically with the capital that's coming in.

我看到投資速度基本上隨著資本的流入而成長。

And it's not different than direct lending or opportunistic, which is obviously very tied to transaction activity.

這與直接借貸或機會主義借貸沒有什麼不同，顯然與交易活動密切相關。

What's nice about the private investment grade and the ABF, it's really just tied to the basic economy.

私人投資等級和 ABF 的優點在於，它們實際上與基礎經濟息息相關。

It's tied to things like consumer finance and rail car finance and a bunch of fundamental things in commercial residential real estate that are just the essence nuts and bolts to the US economy.

它與消費金融、鐵路車輛金融以及商業住宅房地產中的一系列基本要素有關，而這些要素正是美國經濟的核心要素。

So as capital comes in, I see this continuing to ramp up.

因此，隨著資本的進入，我看到這一趨勢持續上升。

We're not going to put a percentage number, but I would expect that it will keep up with the inflows.

我們不會給出一個百分比數字，但我預計它將跟上資金流入的步伐。

Michael, you have the specifics.

邁克爾，你了解具體情況。

Alex, it's Michael.

亞歷克斯，我是麥可。

Out of our AUM base 375 in BXE, total AUM, 265 fee earning AUM, about $40 billion is not yet, is eligible for management fees and not yet earning it, to put it in perspective.

從整體來看，在 BXE 的 375 個 AUM 基數中，有 265 個收取費用的 AUM，大約有 400 億美元還沒有達到收取管理費的條件，而且還沒有賺到錢。

And there's another $9 billion or so in the bread's business within real estate.

另外，房地產領域的麵包業務價值約為 90 億美元。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的布萊恩‧貝德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, good morning folks.

謝謝，大家早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Maybe just to, Michael, on the FRE margin outlook for '25.

邁克爾，也許只是為了了解 25 年的 FRE 利潤率前景。

Just you're highly likely to get back to solid double-digit base fee growth, not even considering FRPR.

即使不考慮 FRPR，您也很有可能恢復到穩定的兩位數基本費用成長。

So just wondering what your outlook for the FRE margin might be in '25, even just not even considering fee-related performance revenue.

所以只是想知道您對 25 年 FRE 利潤率的前景如何，即使不考慮與費用相關的績效收入。

And then I guess on top of that, I mean that can certainly create a lot of delta to the margin given the compensation on performance, fee related performance revenue.

然後我想，最重要的是，考慮到績效補償、費用相關的績效收入，這肯定會為利潤率帶來很大的增量。

But then I guess, if that creates a lot of uncertainty into that outlook, to what extent is that compensation fungible across the firm so that you can, therefore, scale that margin and improve that this year versus last year?

但我想，如果這給前景帶來了很大的不確定性，那麼在多大程度上薪酬在公司範圍內可以互換，以便你能夠擴大利潤率，並在今年相比去年有所改善？

Brian.

布萊恩。

So I'll just step back on the question margins.

因此我將不再贅述問題的邊緣部分。

You've heard me, I reminded you this before, but I'll say it again, it's early in the year, so we don't want to get too granular.

你已經聽到了，我之前提醒過你這一點，但我要再說一遍，現在只是年初，所以我們不想談得太詳細。

And as always, we encourage you to look at it on a full year basis.

像往常一樣，我們鼓勵您從全年的角度來看待這個問題。

We did throughout the year last year.

我們去年全年都這麼做。

I think that approach hopefully was validated when you look at the full year performance.

我認為，當你回顧全年表現時，這種方法有望得到驗證。

There are different variables to consider.

有不同的變數需要考慮。

You've touched on at least one.

您至少提到了其中一個。

But I'd just start by saying we continue to feel really good about our margin position fundamentally.

但我首先要說的是，從根本上來說，我們仍然對我們的利潤率狀況感到非常滿意。

And again, the idea of margin stability as a starting point at the beginning of the year.

再次，我們提出在年初就將利潤穩定作為起點。

A few items I'll just note in terms of those variables.

關於這些變量，我只想指出幾點。

First, and you hit this.

首先，你擊中了這個。

On management fees and OpEx in terms of baseline.

以管理費和營運支出為基準。

So on management fees, we have this embedded ramp, the full year benefit in '25 in flagship vehicles activated in 2024.

因此，在管理費方面，我們有這個嵌入式坡道，即 2025 年旗艦車型的全年收益，將於 2024 年啟動。

So that lifted our base management fees in the fourth quarter.

因此，這提高了我們第四季的基本管理費。

It's 10% year over year after more like single-digit growth throughout the course of the year.

在全年都保持個位數成長之後，今年的年成長率為 10%。

And we consider that growth rate a reasonable starting point as we enter 2025.

我們認為，進入 2025 年，該成長率是一個合理的起點。

And at the same time, on the OpEx side, and I think we talked about this in prior quarters.

同時，在營運支出方面，我想我們在前幾個季度討論過這個問題。

And we talked about, I think, third quarter, how we saw in the fourth quarter, it would come in that low double-digit area, and that was sort of a better run rate.

我們談到了第三節，我認為，我們在第四節看到的情況是，它會進入兩位數的低位區域，這是一種更好的運行率。

We came in at 11% in the fourth quarter.

我們的第四季成長率達到了 11%。

And again, I would say that is a good starting point as we enter 2025.

我想再說一次，這是我們邁入 2025 年的一個好起點。

So to your point, that relationship between management fee growth stepping up from last, from 2024 and the OpEx growth I think, is a good thing.

所以就你的觀點而言，我認為從 2024 年開始管理費成長與營運支出成長之間的關係是一件好事。

Second, as we've said before, there is a level of sensitivity to fee-related performance revenues as Core plus and BREIT FRPR, as we call them, generally carry higher incremental margin as these are direct lending platform.

其次，正如我們之前所說，與費用相關的績效收入具有一定程度的敏感性，因為我們所說的 Core plus 和 BREIT FRPR 通常具有更高的增量利潤率，因為它們是直接借貸平台。

So that is a note.

這就是一條註釋。

To your question, we do manage compensation ultimately holistically across the firm.

對於您的問題，我們確實對整個公司的薪酬進行了整體管理。

So that's in play, but I think it is worth noting that sensitivity.

這是可行的，但我認為值得注意的是這種敏感性。

And then third, as you heard this morning, we continue to build out a number of really significant new initiatives, which are in investment mode today, but will be meaningfully additive over time.

第三，正如大家今天早上所聽到的，我們繼續制定一些真正重要的新舉措，這些舉措目前處於投資模式，但隨著時間的推移將具有重大意義。

So we are investing to grow and scale these new products, these new platforms to very significant ultimate profitability, but we are investing to do that in real time.

因此，我們正在投資發展和擴大這些新產品、新平台，以實現非常顯著的最終盈利，但我們的投資是即時進行的。

So I'd just say those are some of the ultimate pillars around this.

所以我只想說這些是實現這一目標的一些最終支柱。

But again, stepping back, we've got a robust underlying margin position, multiple engines of growth and ultimately a high degree of control, we feel, over our cost structure and this ability to scale products is the key over time.

但是，退一步來說，我們擁有強勁的潛在利潤率、多個成長引擎，最終對成本結構擁有高度的控制力，我們認為，隨著時間的推移，擴大產品規模的能力是關鍵。

So whether it's in the private wealth space or any other space being subscale does not lead to, I think, compelling profitability, but we approach it a little differently.

因此，無論是在私人財富領域還是其他任何領域，我認為，規模較小都不會帶來令人信服的獲利能力，但我們採取的方法略有不同。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克布朗。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Good morning, everyone I wanted to ask on the new multi-asset credit fund that is set to launch.

大家早安，我想問即將推出的新的多元資產信貸基金。

I think you said in the first half of this year.

我認為你說的是今年上半年。

I'm just hoping to compare and contrast that fund versus BCRED.

我只是希望將該基金與 BCRED 進行比較和對比。

So the new fund will invest across a variety of credit strategies.

因此，新基金將投資多種信貸策略。

So it sounds like it's kind of like a broad exposure to your credit business.

所以聽起來這有點像是對您的信貸業務的廣泛接觸。

Curious how that will be kind of marketed just to ensure it doesn't cannibalize BCRED.

好奇它會如何行銷，以確保它不會蠶食 BCRED。

And then given it's an interval fund, does that mean it has potential to be kind of distributed differently into a wider array of distributors?

那麼鑑於它是一隻間隔基金，這是否意味著它有可能以不同的方式分佈到更廣泛的分銷商？

Well, I'm looking at my General Counsel and how I can answer this question.

好吧，我正在諮詢我的總法律顧問，看看我該如何回答這個問題。

What I would say is the product will have the breadth what we do in credit as opposed to just direct lending and have a piece of that, but a bunch of other things, we obviously do it this firm related to asset-backed finance and real estate finance, things on a global basis.

我想說的是，該產品將具有我們在信貸領域所做的廣度，而不僅僅是直接貸款，並且擁有其中的一部分，但還有很多其他的東西，我們顯然在這家公司做與資產支持融資和房地產相關的房地產金融，全球範圍內的事情。

So, and it will be in a different structure that we believe will be more accessible to investors, but I don't think there's much more I could say about this.

所以，我們認為它將採用不同的結構，以便投資者更容易接受，但我認為關於這一點我能說的並不多。

Okay.

好的。

Well, thank you for that color.

好吧，謝謝你的顏色。

Thanks John.

謝謝約翰。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Thanks, bye.

謝謝，再見。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

瑞銀的布倫南‧霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I have a couple of questions on FRPR, specifically within credit, one on the fourth quarter and then one more forward-looking.

我對 FRPR 有幾個問題，特別是在信貸領域，一個是關於第四季度的，另一個是關於前瞻性的。

So a nice uplift here in the quarter.

因此本季出現了良好的成長。

Is it possible to quantify what impact you saw from spread tightening working through the FRPR line here this quarter?

是否可以量化本季透過 FRPR 線看到的利差收緊的影響？

And then how should we think about, on a forward-looking basis, how should we think about the impact of base rates and tighter spreads on excess return and therefore, FRPR generation going forward?

那麼，從前瞻性的角度來看，我們應該如何思考基準利率和更緊的利差對超額報酬的影響，以及未來 FRPR 的產生？

I would just say, I'll leave Michael some of the technical answers here.

我只想說，我會在這裡把一些技術答案留給麥可。

I would just say that there has been some of the excess spread coming out of the credit business really over the last 18 months.

我只想說，在過去的 18 個月裡，信貸業務確實出現了一些過剩利差。

You've seen it broadly across investment grade, noninvestment grade credit spreads have been tightening.

你已經看到，投資等級和非投資等級信用利差普遍在收緊。

We've seen base rates come down.

我們已經看到基準利率下降。

But our vehicles, as you've seen in the numbers have continued to produce very strong results.

但正如您從數據中看到的那樣，我們的車輛繼續保持著非常強勁的業績。

And I think the key thing to remember for investors is, yes, they may not be able to produce mid-teens returns in private credit on a go-forward basis, but the relative returns and the spread premium to fixed income to liquid fixed income is continuing to endure.

我認為投資者需要記住的關鍵是，是的，他們可能無法在未來的私人信貸中獲得中等水平的回報，但相對回報以及固定收益與流動性固定收益之間的利差溢價正在繼續忍受。

And so that's what gives us a lot of confidence that we'll continue to generate favorable returns for our customers is that this farm-to-table model we have, where we bring investors right up to borrowers and avoid those origination distribution, securitization costs.

因此，我們非常有信心，我們將繼續為客戶創造有利的回報，因為我們擁有從農場到餐桌的模式，我們將投資者直接帶到借款人，避免了那些發起分配、證券化成本。

That's going to continue, and that's why we think this private credit area has so much room to run, both noninvestment-grade and investment-grade.

這種趨勢將會持續下去，這也是我們認為私人信貸領域（包括非投資等級和投資等級）都有如此大的運作空間的原因。

But yes, the overall level of yields are coming down as spreads are tightening, but I think this bigger trend is really the key to the growth of that business.

但是，隨著利差縮小，整體殖利率水準確實正在下降，但我認為，這個大趨勢才是該業務成長的關鍵。

And Brandon, on the math, I'll just say that approximate math is across our current BCRED platform that a 50 basis point decline in base rates impacts our fee-related performance revenues on a run rate basis by about 4%.

布蘭登，從數學角度來說，我只能說，根據我們目前的BCRED 平台的近似計算，基準利率下降50 個基點將對我們的費用相關績效收入（按運行率計算）產生約4% 的影響。

It's like a low single-digit number.

它就像一個低個位數。

And we obviously absorbed that in more in the last 12 months and (inaudible) overall in BCRED grew at 18%.

顯然，我們在過去 12 個月中吸收了更多的資金，並且 (聽不清楚) BCRED 整體成長了 18%。

So through the NAV appreciation through the growth in inflows, that's been the net of that.

因此，透過流入資金的成長來實現資產淨值的升值，這就是淨值。

Great.

偉大的。

And spread tightening, did that have an impact in 4Q?

利差收緊對第四季有影響嗎？

Spread tightening.

利差收緊。

I mean most of what we have is floating rate.

我的意思是我們大部分實行的是浮動利率。

So spread tightening generally doesn't.

因此利差收緊通常不會產生效果。

Credit quality is, frankly, more important because you don't have a lot that trades above par.

坦白說，信用品質更為重要，因為你沒有很多高於票面價值的貨幣。

So I don't think spread tightening was a big driver of what you're seeing.

因此，我不認為利差收緊是造成您所看到的情況的主要原因。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Ken Worthington, J. P. Morgan.

肯‧沃辛頓，J.P. 摩根。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I wanted to dig a bit deeper into the big four insurance relationships, if I could.

如果可以的話，我想更深入地了解四大保險公司之間的關係。

So maybe setting the stage of the $230 billion you called out a couple of times in insurance assets about how much come from the Big 4.

因此，也許可以確定您幾次提到的 2,300 億美元保險資產中有多少來自四大保險公司。

As we think about '25, what are the contractual commitment obligations expected from the Big 4?

當我們思考25年時，四大公司預計需要承擔哪些合約承諾義務？

And then lastly, given the acquisition of resolution by Nippon Life, you mentioned, I think, that the IMA remains intact.

最後，鑑於日本生命已獲得解決方案，我認為您提到 IMA 仍然完好無損。

Does the transaction impact the remainder of the $60 billion of resolution flows expected over the next few years.

這筆交易是否會影響未來幾年預計的 600 億美元解決資金流的剩餘部分？

Great.

偉大的。

Ken, it's Michael.

肯，我是麥可。

I'll start with your first question on the numbers.

我先回答你關於數字的第一個問題。

We, at the end of '24, across the Big 4, we had $156 billion of AUM.

截至 24 年底，四大會計師事務所的資產管理規模達 1,560 億美元。

And what I would say is, I think in virtually every one of our situations, we've been allocated more capital than what was in there, faster than what was in there contractually that our partners here are extremely pleased with what we've been doing.

我想說的是，我認為幾乎在每一個案例中，我們獲得的資金都比合約中規定的要多，速度也比合約中規定的要快，我們的合作夥伴對我們所做的事情非常滿意。

So the relationship with Core Bridge is rock solid, with Resolution, with Fidelity Guaranty and with Ever Lake, the former Allstate Life and Retirement business.

因此，與 Core Bridge、Resolution、Fidelity Guaranty 以及 Ever Lake（前身為 Allstate Life and Retirement 子公司）的關係都非常牢固。

And what I think is interesting is by making these vehicles more competitive with our work, they're going to continue to grow.

我認為有趣的是，透過我們的工作使這些車輛更具競爭力，它們將繼續成長。

And I think having resolution now owned by Nippon with their capital and their expertise, this, I think, will be a very good development in terms of the future.

我認為，現在日本憑藉其資本和專業知識擁有了這個解決方案，從未來來看，這將是一個非常好的進展。

So we view these partnerships and our model is very powerful.

因此，我們認為這些合作夥伴關係和我們的模式非常強大。

As you're seeing in resolution, we'll return that capital.

正如您在決議中看到的，我們將退還該資本。

I think it's a good example of what we're doing.

我認為這是我們正在做的事情的一個很好的例子。

We use capital at the beginning of these partnerships.

我們在這些合作關係開始時就使用資本。

We did back with Fidelity Guaranty.

我們確實與 Fidelity Guaranty 達成了協議。

We ultimately recycle that capital and we continue to stay with these partners long term as they grow their asset bases, and we make them more competitive.

我們最終會回收這些資本，並在這些合作夥伴擴大資產基礎的過程中繼續長期與他們合作，並使他們更具競爭力。

And so we think this strategic partnership model is working extremely well.

因此我們認為這種策略夥伴關係模式運作良好。

We see a bright future for it.

我們看到了它的光明前景。

We are really, will continue to be the dedicated asset manager for these folks.

我們確實將繼續擔任這些人的專屬資產管理者。

And as we've talked about before, we're not going to do it by taking on insurance liabilities and everything that comes with this.

正如我們之前談到的，我們不會透過承擔保險責任以及隨之而來的一切來做到這一點。

For us, our partners are greatly appreciative of what we're doing, and I actually see accelerating growth with our strategic partners, given what we're delivering for them and their ambitions.

對我們來說，我們的合作夥伴非常欣賞我們所做的事情，考慮到我們為他們提供的服務和他們的抱負，我確實看到我們的策略夥伴正在加速成長。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

So, wanted to ask a question on BREIT.

因此，想問一個關於 BREIT 的問題。

The second derivative on BREIT growth in net flows appears to be improving.

BREIT 淨流量成長的第二個衍生性商品似乎正在改善。

That being said, given stickier rates at the long end.

話雖如此，長期利率仍較為堅挺。

Just wanted to better understand the catalyst for retail allocations into BREIT to increase from here, what the feedback has been from retail partners?

只是想更了解從現在開始增加零售分配到 BREIT 的催化劑，零售合作夥伴的回饋是什麼？

And how do you see BREIT flows evolving over the medium term relative to history, given your outlook?

從您的觀點來看，您認為中期內 BREIT 流量相對於歷史將如何演變？

Look, it's all tied to performance.

看，這一切都與表現有關。

I think we did an excellent job navigating the difficult period for real estate, providing liquidity to customers.

我認為我們在房地產困難時期做得非常出色，為客戶提供了流動性。

We've been providing now full liquidity in the last 11 months.

在過去的 11 個月中，我們一直在提供充足的流動性。

We've seen this 97% decline in net redemptions.

我們看到淨贖回量下降了 97%。

And I think the key to your question is, when does this turn on and become a growth vehicle?

我認為你問題的關鍵是，什麼時候它才會啟動並成為成長動力？

And I would tie it to performance it.

我會將其與表演聯繫起來。

Once BREIT starts showing good performance, the customers have had a good experience.

一旦 BREIT 開始表現出良好的性能，客戶就會獲得良好的體驗。

And so what they're waiting to see is a few months of positive NAV growth in a meaningful direction.

因此，他們正在等待看到幾個月的資產淨值朝著有意義的方向積極成長。

And I think if that happens, then we'll begin to see it.

我認為如果發生這種情況，我們就會開始看到它。

It may take a little bit of time, but we think it will build.

這可能需要一點時間，但我們相信它會成功。

And when you look at what BREIT owns the fact that it has got this terrific rental housing portfolio where there's a structural shortage in the US, it's got a terrific exposure to logistics where, of course, the movement to e-commerce continues, and now there's a reshoring underway.

當你看看 BREIT 擁有的東西時，你會發現它擁有非常棒的租賃住房組合，而美國存在結構性短缺，它在物流方面也有很大的投資，當然，電子商務的趨勢仍在繼續，現在製造業回流正在進行中。

And then the data centers, which have been very important in the last few years in terms of adding value to BREIT, all of that and the geography in the South and Southwest of the United States, all of that gives us confidence.

然後是資料中心，在過去幾年中，資料中心對於增加 BREIT 的價值非常重要，所有這些以及美國南部和西南部的地理位置都給了我們信心。

But I think from the investor standpoint, they want to see a steady number of months of solid performance.

但我認為從投資人的角度來看，他們希望看到連續數月的穩健表現。

We believe that as we get rates to settle in here and we see the continued growth in cash flow, interestingly, BREIT last year was up 4% in same-store NOI.

我們相信，隨著利率穩定下來，我們看到現金流持續成長，有趣的是，去年 BREIT 的同店淨營業利潤成長了 4%。

As cash flow continues to grow, rate settles out, there's this lack of new supply.

隨著現金流不斷增長，利率穩定下來，出現新的供應不足的情況。

We think BREIT will, again, at some point here become a growth vehicle.

我們認為，BREIT 最終會再次成為成長動力。

And we've got to remember the customers have had a very good experience here.

我們必須記住，顧客在這裡享受到了非常好的體驗。

They have a lot of confidence in Blackstone and Blackstone real estate.

他們對黑石集團和黑石房地產非常有信心。

But I do think you're going to need to see that before you really start to see an acceleration.

但我確實認為，在你真正開始看到加速之前，你需要看到這一點。

Ben Budish, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking the question.

大家好，早安，謝謝您回答這個問題。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the trajectory, the potential trajectory for BIP, FRPR.

我想知道您是否可以進一步談談 BIP、FRPR 的發展軌跡和潛在發展軌跡。

I understand you said that I think they should start to pick up in Q2.

我知道您說我認為他們應該在第二季度開始回升。

But as we sort of look back over the last several years, there's been a not in substantial amount of fundraising quarterly since the beginning of 2022.

但回顧過去幾年，自 2022 年初以來，每季的融資金額並不多。

So just curious if there's anything else you can share in terms of what the shape of FRPR looks like, just given the size of that fundraising and the performance?

所以我很好奇，考慮到籌款規模和表現，您是否還能分享一些有關 FRPR 狀況的資訊？

And any other nuances we should be aware of around the FRPR margin side?

我們還應該注意 FRPR 邊緣方面的其他細微差別嗎？

It seemed like that came in maybe a little better than expected, but (technical difficulty) it has to do perhaps with the timing of BXPE, I'm wondering if we could see something like that next, this year in Q4.

看起來這可能比預期的要好一些，但（技術難度）這可能與 BXPE 的時間有關，我想知道我們是否會在今年第四季看到類似的事情。

Yeah, thank you so much.

是的，非常感謝。

I would just say and then hand it to Michael that the momentum in our BIP, our infrastructure business is extraordinary.

我只想說，然後把這個交給邁克爾，我們的 BIP，我們的基礎設施業務的發展勢頭非常強勁。

When you deliver 17% net in an open-ended format where the capital is invested in the ground and you build up the kind of portfolio they have in digital infrastructure, in power and energy and in transportation.

當你以開放式的形式提供 17% 的淨利潤時，資本就會投資於實地，你會在數位基礎設施、電力、能源和運輸領域建立類似的投資組合。

You have a lot of happy customers.

您有很多滿意的顧客。

And so the fundraising momentum there continues to be quite strong, exactly as Steve laid out in his remarks.

因此，那裡的籌款勢頭仍然非常強勁，正如史蒂夫在演講中所說的那樣。

Michael, I'll hand it to you.

邁克爾，我會把它交給你的。

And then on sort of the sequencing of incentives from here.

然後從這裡開始對激勵措施進行排序。

As I mentioned in my remarks, in Q2, we will realize a more modest, but a material amount of incentive fees.

正如我在評論中提到的，在第二季度，我們將實現更適度但實質的激勵費用。

And so you can expect in the next four quarters in 2025, you won't see infrastructure incentive fees and FRPRs in the first and fourth quarter, you'll see a modest amount in the second and the third quarter.

因此，您可以預期在2025 年的未來四個季度中，您不會在第一季和第四季看到基礎設施激勵費和FRPR，而會在第二季和第三季看到適度的金額。

As we talked about margins on that, we sort of gave this a forward look last year that given the development mode we're in on at the effective FRPR margin for infrastructure would be a bit lower than the overall firm.

當我們談論利潤率時，我們去年對此進行了前瞻性的展望，考慮到我們所處的發展模式，基礎設施的有效 FRPR 利潤率將略低於整體公司。

And that was the case obviously, on very big dollars.

顯然，情況確實如此，金額非常大。

So that was a happy event.

所以這真是一件快樂的事。

And I think in terms of, looking ahead to Q4 this year versus Q4 this year and what was or wasn't anticipated, not a lot of color to

我認為，展望今年第四季度，與今年第四季相比，沒有太多預期或未預期的色彩。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特 (Patrick Davitt)，自主研究。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I know there's still a lot of uncertainty on the direction of the new administration's policies, but sure you guys have been running different scenarios internally, like others have said they are.

我知道新政府政策的方向仍然存在許多不確定性，但可以肯定的是，正如其他人所說的那樣，你們內部已經在運作不同的方案。

So through that lens, curious if you have any initial thoughts on how the in-ground portfolio could be impacted either positively or negatively by more significant tariffs or a trade war.

因此，從這個角度來看，我很好奇您是否對更高的關稅或貿易戰將如何對地下投資組合產生積極或消極影響有什麼初步看法。

And within that theme, more specifically, give us an update on the invested capital exposure to Europe, Asia and then specifically China.

並且在這個主題內，更具體地說，請向我們介紹歐洲、亞洲以及中國的投資資本敞口的最新情況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So what I'd say at the headline level, Patrick, is we don't have a lot of businesses who export physical goods at scale to the United States.

所以派崔克，我想說的是，從標題來看，我們沒有很多企業大規模向美國出口實體商品。

So I think that's obviously the area at most risk.

因此我認為這顯然是最危險的地區。

The other thing I would say is, I think we got to wait and see where this settles.

我想說的另一件事是，我認為我們必須拭目以待，看看這個問題將如何解決。

Clearly, tariffs are going to be higher, but we don't know which countries, which industries and what the level is, and there seems to be a lot of negotiation.

顯然，關稅將會提高，但我們不知道哪些國家、哪些產業、關稅水準如何，而且似乎還有很多談判。

This tariff diplomacy as we saw in Colombia a week ago can move pretty dramatically in a short period of time.

正如我們一周前在哥倫比亞看到的那樣，這種關稅外交可以在短時間內發生相當大的變化。

So I think we have to wait and watch.

因此我認為我們必須拭目以待。

The good news overall for us is very few of our businesses are really reliant on exporting goods into the United States, physical goods.

對我們來說整體的好消息是，我們的企業中很少有真正依賴向美國出口實體商品。

And so we just don't see it either in Europe and Asia having a major impact on our business.

因此，我們並不認為它在歐洲和亞洲對我們的業務產生重大影響。

And then just on the geographic dimension, Patrick, if you step back at the whole firm.

然後僅從地理維度來看，帕特里克，如果你回顧整個公司。

So these are sort of gross numbers, but we have heavy concentration as international and global as we are in the US about three quarters of our portfolio is in the US and that's a pretty historical level, about 15 or so percent in Europe and then a quite modest single-digit amount in Asia.

這些只是總體數字，但我們的國際和全球投資都集中在美國，大約四分之三的投資組合在美國，這是一個相當歷史性的水平，大約 15% 在歐洲，然後是在亞洲，這一數字相當溫和，僅為個位數。

So we're a global firm, but the nature of our business is that sort of more, I think, manageable exposure to non-US markets.

因此，我們是一家全球性公司，但我認為，我們業務的性質是對非美國市場的更可控的投資。

Thanks Patrick.

謝謝帕特里克。

Crispin Love, Piper Sandler.

克里斯賓·洛夫，派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you and good morning everyone.

謝謝大家，早安。

Can you just discuss your outlook on interest rates as Steve stated, you are seeing disinflation based on your data, but there are some worries more broadly on inflation, just shown by treasury yields recently.

您能否討論一下您對利率的看法，正如史蒂夫所說，根據您的數據，您看到了通貨緊縮的現象，但從更廣泛的意義上講，人們對通膨存在一些擔憂，最近的國債收益率就表明了這一點。

Would you expect more rate cuts than currently priced in or perhaps a rally in rates.

您預期利率會比目前價格反映的幅度更大還是會上漲？

I'm just curious on how that could impact PE activity, real estate performance in 2025 just based on your in-house views.

我只是好奇，根據您的內部觀點，這將如何影響 2025 年的 PE 活動和房地產表現。

Always dangerous to predict interest rates.

預測利率總是很危險的。

But what I would say is our confidence comes from our portfolio on the inflation data.

但我想說的是，我們的信心來自於我們對通膨數據的投資組合。

So we're obviously a very major owner of rental housing and shelter is the biggest component of CPI.

因此，我們顯然是租賃房屋的主要所有者，而住房是 CPI 的最大組成部分。

It's 36% today.

今天是36%。

The Fed data is 4.6%.

聯準會數據為4.6%。

We would say what we're seeing is closer to 1% in that area.

我們可以認為，該地區的成長率接近 1%。

And what we've seen steadily is the government data is catching up to what's happening sort of on the ground in the real world.

我們不斷看到的是政府數據正在追趕現實世界中正在發生的情況。

And so if you take a 36% weighting and you slowly bring that down, I think that's going to give the Fed some air cover.

因此，如果你採取 36% 的權重並慢慢降低，我認為這將為聯準會提供一些空中掩護。

The other thing we'd say right now is in the labor market.

我們現在要說的另一件事是勞動市場。

We survey our CEOs, and they would say, basically, it's the easiest to hire that it's been since the post-COVID period, wages for hourly workers are at the lowest level of 3.7%.

我們對我們的執行長進行了調查，他們會說，基本上，現在是自新冠疫情後最容易招人的時期，小時工的工資處於 3.7% 的最低水平。

Now it's possible things could change if we get a resurgence in economic activity, but right now, the labor market seems to be in balance.

如果經濟活動復甦，情況可能會發生變化，但目前勞動力市場似乎處於平衡狀態。

And so that should be helpful as well.

這也應該是有幫助的。

As to what the Fed is going to do, I think they have the luxury of being patient.

至於聯準會將採取什麼行動，我認為他們有足夠的耐心。

I think the fact that the economy is so strong.

我認為事實是經濟如此強勁。

They want to see what kind of policies are coming from this administration.

他們想看看這屆政府會推出什麼樣的政策。

I think they're going to wait and see.

我認為他們會拭目以待。

But I do think the inflation data will generally be supportive it is showing as inflation continues to come down, although the pace of that disinflation is slower.

但我確實認為通膨數據總體上將起到支持作用，這表明通膨將繼續下降，儘管通貨緊縮的速度較慢。

Arnaud Giblat, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Arnaud Giblat。

Yeah, good morning.

是的，早安。

Just if we you could look at the perpetual products, if we look five years out from now and assuming a continued acceleration in flows in these products in the US and in the global private wealth channels.

如果我們看永久性產品，如果我們展望五年後，假設這些產品在美國和全球私人財富管道中的流動繼續加速。

I'm just wondering how we might see your distribution evolve.

我只是想知道我們將會如何看待您的分佈演變。

In other words, how much AUM are you currently set up to distribute today?

換句話說，您目前準備分配多少 AUM？

And do you require a lot of investment in distribution over the next two, three, five years?

在未來兩、三年或五年內，您是否需要在分銷方面進行大量投資？

I'm just wondering about the shape.

我只是好奇它的形狀。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, it's clearly in the area, where we have a significant amount of optimism.

嗯，顯然我們對這個領域抱持相當樂觀的態度。

I think, you could see this grow quite substantially.

我認為，你會看到這一數字大幅增加。

The good news is we've made an enormous investment in this area ahead of others.

好消息是我們已經領先其他人在這個領域進行了巨額投資。

We really started on this now almost 15 years ago.

我們實際上從大約 15 年前就開始做這件事了。

We have teams around the globe, more than 300 people dedicated to our private wealth area.

我們在全球各地擁有團隊，有超過 300 人致力於我們的私人財富領域。

We've built these products with track records, which is pretty differentiated.

我們打造這些產品時都有良好的記錄，這是非常有差異化的。

We think the opportunity to distribute these more broadly in different formats is going to grow.

我們認為，以不同形式更廣泛地傳播這些內容的機會將會增加。

And this is really where the power of the Blackstone brand is so important.

這正是黑石品牌力量如此重要的原因。

Sometimes it's hard to quantify when you're doing financial models.

有時，當你建立財務模型時很難量化。

But our ability to launch new products to sell to different distribution partners.

但我們有能力推出新產品並將其銷售給不同的分銷夥伴。

The fact that we have a differentiated brand that allows us to sell more to expand on a capital-light basis, all of that is very favorable for our shareholders.

事實上，我們擁有差異化的品牌，這使我們能夠在輕資本的基礎上實現更多銷售和擴張，這一切對我們的股東來說非常有利。

We think it's early days in this.

我們認為此事仍處於早期階段。

If you think about the big picture, we think there's close to $90 trillion of wealth of people who have more than $1 million in savings around the world.

如果從總體上考慮，我們認為全世界擁有超過 100 萬美元儲蓄的人的財富接近 90 兆美元。

And we think it's allocated around 1% to private assets.

我們認為其中約 1% 分配給了私人資產。

If you think about our institutional partners, they're 30% allocated.

如果你考慮我們的機構夥伴，他們分配了 30%。

And so we've come out of a difficult period the last two or three years with this cost of capital shock, people are re-emerging, risk appetites going up.

因此，我們在過去兩、三年走出了資本成本衝擊帶來的困難時期，人們重新回歸，風險偏好上升。

Short-term rates are going down, so people are starting to think about moving out of deposits into other assets.

短期利率正在下降，因此人們開始考慮將存款轉向其他資產。

And at Blackstone, given the breadth of what we've got and the track record and the investment we've made in people, we think we're really well positioned.

而在黑石，考慮到我們擁有的廣泛資源、良好的業績記錄以及對人才的投資，我們認為我們確實處於有利地位。

So I wouldn't be surprised if this is far larger than it is today five years from now.

因此，如果五年後這個數字比現在大得多，我不會感到驚訝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

With no additional questions in queue, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr Tucker Weston for any additional or closer remarks.

由於沒有其他問題，我想將電話轉回給塔克·韋斯頓先生，以便進行進一步或更詳細的評論。

Thanks so much for joining us today and look forward to following up after the call.

非常感謝您今天加入我們，並期待通話結束後的跟進。