(BX) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Blackstone First Quarter 2024 Investor Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Blackstone 2024 年第一季投資者電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.

這次，我想把會議交給股東關係主管韋斯頓‧塔克(Weston Tucker)。請繼續。

Thanks, Katy, and good morning and welcome to Blackstone's first quarter conference call. Joining today are Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝凱蒂，早安，歡迎參加 Blackstone 第一季電話會議。今天加入的還有董事長兼執行長史蒂夫‧施瓦茨曼 (Steve Schwarzman)；喬恩‧格雷，總裁兼營運長；和財務長 Michael Chae。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. We expect to file our 10-Q report in a few weeks.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和幻燈片演示，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。我們預計將在幾週內提交 10-Q 報告。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could affect results, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K. We'll also refer to certain non-GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the Shareholders page of our website. Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述具有不確定性，可能與實際結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何責任。有關可能影響結果的一些因素的討論，請參閱 10-K 的風險因素部分。我們也會參考某些非公認會計準則衡量標準，您可以在我們網站股東頁面的新聞稿中找到對帳資訊。另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成任何 Blackstone 基金的出售要約或購買要約。此音訊廣播是 Blackstone 受版權保護的資料，未經同意不得複製。

So on results quickly, we reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $1.6 billion. Distributable earnings were $1.3 billion or $0.98 per common share, and we declared a dividend of $0.83, which we paid to holders of record as of April 29.

因此，很快就公佈了結果，我們報告了該季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 16 億美元。可分配收益為 13 億美元，即每股普通股 0.98 美元，我們宣布派發股息 0.83 美元，並已向截至 4 月 29 日的登記持有人支付。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

這樣，我就把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Good morning and thank you for joining our call. Blackstone reported strong results for the first quarter of 2024, including healthy distributable earnings of $1.3 billion as Weston mentioned, underpinned by the highest fee-weighted earnings in 6 quarters.

早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。 Blackstone 公佈了 2024 年第一季的強勁業績，其中包括韋斯頓提到的 13 億美元的健康可分配收益，這得益於 6 個季度最高的費用加權收益。

On our January earnings call, following a volatile multiyear period for global markets, we noted an improving external environment and shared our view that 2023 would be the cyclical bottom for our firm. While changing market conditions take time to translate to financial results, including realizations and performance revenues, we are seeing positive momentum across many key forward indicators at our firm.

在全球市場經歷了多年的動盪之後，在 1 月的財報電話會議上，我們注意到外部環境正在改善，並同意我們的觀點，即 2023 年將是我們公司的周期性底部。雖然不斷變化的市場條件需要時間才能轉化為財務業績，包括變現和業績收入，但我們看到公司許多關鍵前瞻性指標都呈現出積極的勢頭。

Inflows were $34 billion in the first quarter and $87 billion over the past 2 quarters. We invested $25 billion in quarter 1 and $56 billion in the past 2 quarters with a strengthening pipeline of new commitments. We are planting the seeds of future value in what we believe is a favorable time for deployment.

第一季流入量為 340 億美元，過去兩季流入量為 870 億美元。我們在第一季投資了 250 億美元，在過去兩個季度投資了 560 億美元，並不斷加強新的承諾。我們正在播下未來價值的種子，我們認為這是部署的有利時機。

At the same time, our fundraising in the private wealth channel meaningfully accelerated in the first quarter. Sales for our perpetual vehicles increased more than 80% from the fourth quarter to $6.6 billion. We've stated before that short-term movements in stock and bond markets impact capital flows in this channel but ultimately, flows follow performance as well as innovation as we're seeing now.

同時，第一季我們在私人財富管道的募款明顯加速。我們的永久車輛銷售額比第四季成長了 80% 以上，達到 66 億美元。我們之前已經說過，股票和債券市場的短期波動會影響這個管道的資本流動，但最終，正如我們現在所看到的，資金流動遵循績效和創新。

We've delivered 10.5% net returns annually for BREIT's largest share class over more than 7 years and 10% for BCRED over 3-plus years. And we continued to successfully launch new strategies, including our private equity vehicle, BXPE, in the first quarter. With $241 billion of AUM in private wealth at Blackstone, we have the leading platform in our industry by far. We've established a significant first-mover advantage with the #1 market share for each of our major season products, along with a high percentage of repeat business across strategies.

在 7 年多的時間裡，我們為 BREIT 最大的股票類別提供了 10.5% 的年淨回報率，在 3 年多的時間裡為 BCRED 提供了 10% 的年淨回報率。我們在第一季繼續成功推出新策略，包括我們的私募股權工具 BXPE。 Blackstone 擁有 2,410 億美元的私人財富管理規模，擁有迄今為止領先業界的平台。我們已經建立了顯著的先發優勢，每個主要季節產品的市場份額均排名第一，並且跨戰略的重複業務比例很高。

Blackstone is built on long-term investment performance. We've achieved 15% net returns annually in corporate private equity and infrastructure since inception, 14% in opportunistic real estate and secondaries, 12% in tactical opportunities and 10% in credit.

Blackstone 建立在長期投資績效之上。自成立以來，我們在企業私募股權和基礎設施領域每年實現15% 的淨回報率，在機會性房地產和二級市場領域實現14% 的淨回報率，在戰術機會領域實現12% 的淨回報率，在信貸領域實現10% 的淨回報率。

In the first quarter, our funds reported steady appreciation overall, highlighted by strength in infrastructure, credit and our multi-asset investing platform, BXMA. Our portfolio is in excellent shape, and our limited partners continue to benefit and we've positioned their capital, emphasizing new neighborhoods, such as digital infrastructure, logistics and energy transition.

第一季度，我們的基金整體穩步升值，基礎設施、信貸和我們的多元資產投資平台 BXMA 的實力凸顯了這一點。我們的投資組合狀況良好，我們的有限合夥人繼續受益，我們已經定位了他們的資本，重點關注新領域，例如數位基礎設施、物流和能源轉型。

The firm's thematic approach to deployment is informed by the real-time data and insights we gather from our global portfolio, which helps us to identify trends early and build conviction around our ideas. Blackstone is the largest and most diversified firm in the alternatives area with over $1 trillion of assets under management, and we believe our knowledge advantage consequently is a unique asset in our industry.

該公司的主題部署方法是基於我們從全球投資組合中收集的即時數據和見解，這有助於我們及早識別趨勢並圍繞我們的想法建立信念。 Blackstone 是另類投資領域最大、最多元化的公司，管理超過 1 兆美元的資產，因此我們相信我們的知識優勢是我們行業中的獨特資產。

For example, digital infrastructure. One of the firm's highest-conviction investment themes today, is a powerful example of this knowledge advantage at work. Just as we recognized the rise of e-commerce nearly 15 years ago and started buying warehouses, we anticipated a paradigm shift around demand for data centers driven by growth in content creation, cloud adoption and most importantly now, the revolution underway in artificial intelligence. Others now know that AI requires exponentially more computing power and capacity than was previously imagined.

例如，數位基礎設施。該公司當今最令人信服的投資主題之一就是這種知識優勢發揮作用的有力例子。正如我們在近15 年前認識到電子商務的崛起並開始購買倉庫一樣，我們預計，由於內容創建、雲端採用的成長，以及現在最重要的是人工智慧領域正在進行的革命，對資料中心的需求將發生範式轉變。其他人現在知道人工智慧需要的運算能力和容量比以前想像的要多得多。

On a personal basis, in less than 2 weeks, I am participating in the dedication ceremony for the Schwarzman College of Computing at MIT, which will be heavily focused on this area. What has Blackstone done with our conviction? We identified QTS, the fifth largest U.S. data center REIT, as a well-positioned but poorly trading public company with tremendous long-term potential. Our BREIT, BIP Infrastructure and BPP Perpetual Strategies acquired the company for $10 billion in 2021, and its lease capacity has already grown sixfold in less than 3 years. Today, QTS is the largest data center company in North America. We are building a variety of other center platforms around the world as well.

就我個人而言，在不到兩週的時間裡，我將參加麻省理工學院蘇世民計算學院的落成典禮，該學院將重點放在這一領域。 Blackstone 對我們的信念做了什麼？我們認為美國第五大數據中心房地產投資信託基金 QTS 是一家定位良好但交易不佳的上市公司，具有巨大的長期潛力。我們的 BREIT、BIP 基礎設施和 BPP Perpetual Strategies 於 2021 年以 100 億美元收購了該公司，其租賃能力在不到 3 年的時間內已經成長了六倍。如今，QTS 是北美最大的資料中心公司。我們也在世界各地建立各種其他中心平台。

In total, Blackstone vehicles now own $50 billion of data centers globally, including facilities under construction. And there is an additional $50 billion in prospective future development pipeline. Blackstone is highly differentiated in our ability to conceptualize the new business area and transform it into a $100 billion potential opportunity.

Blackstone 目前在全球總共擁有價值 500 億美元的資料中心，其中包括在建設施。未來的開發計畫還有 500 億美元的額外資金。 Blackstone 在構思新業務領域並將其轉化為 1000 億美元潛在機會的能力方面具有高度差異化。

We are also actively investing in other companies in AI-related areas. We're buying as well as financing several firms that design, build and service data centers. We recently financed a cloud infrastructure business supporting AI development. And now we've transitioned to addressing the sector's growing power needs, leveraging our sizable energy infrastructure platform, which includes the largest private renewables developer in North America.

我們也積極投資人工智慧相關領域的其他公司。我們正在收購並資助幾家設計、建造和服務資料中心的公司。我們最近資助了一家支援人工智慧開發的雲端基礎設施業務。現在，我們已經轉變為利用我們龐大的能源基礎設施平台（其中包括北美最大的私人再生能源開發商）來滿足該行業不斷增長的電力需求。

There are several other powerful megatrends that we expect to drive the firm forward, both in terms of where we invest and where we raise capital. The most compelling of these today include: the secular rise of private credit, where we have one of the world's largest platforms; infrastructure; energy transition; life sciences; and the expansion of alternatives globally and particularly in Asia. In each of these areas, we've established leading platforms with tremendous momentum. Looking forward in 2024, the market environment will remain complex. The economy is stronger than expected but is starting to slow a bit.

我們預計還有其他幾個強大的大趨勢能夠推動公司向前發展，無論是在投資地點還是籌集資金方面。如今，其中最引人注目的包括：私人信貸的長期崛起，我們擁有世界上最大的平台之一；基礎設施;能源轉型；生命科學;以及全球（尤其是亞洲）替代品的擴張。在每個領域，我們都建立了勢頭強勁的領先平台。展望2024年，市場環境依然複雜。經濟強於預期，但開始略為放緩。

In terms of inflation, despite the recent U.S. CPI readings, we are seeing a decelerating wage growth and minimal input cost increases across many of our companies. In real estate, we see shelter costs moderating, contrary to government data. We believe inflation will trend lower this year, although the pace of decline has slowed recently. Geopolitical turbulence, including wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, adds further uncertainty to the business environment. And 2024 is a major election year as we all know with nearly half of the world's population going to the polls, which injects unpredictability around the future of important policies that impact the global economy.

就通膨而言，儘管最近美國消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據公佈，但我們看到許多公司的薪資成長正在放緩，投入成本增幅也微乎其微。在房地產領域，我們看到住房成本正在放緩，這與政府數據相反。我們認為今年通膨將呈下降趨勢，儘管最近下降速度有所放緩。中東和烏克蘭戰爭等地緣政治動盪進一步增加了商業環境的不確定性。眾所周知，2024 年是重要的選舉年，世界上近一半的人口將參與投票，這為影響全球經濟的重要政策的未來帶來了不可預測性。

Blackstone is well positioned against this evolving backdrop. Our portfolio is concentrated in compelling sectors, and we have the industry's largest dry powder balance of nearly $200 billion to take advantage of opportunities. Our long-term capital provides the flexibility and firepower to invest while affording us the patience to sell assets when the time is right.

在這一不斷變化的背景下，黑石處於有利地位。我們的投資組合集中在引人注目的領域，並且我們擁有業界最大的乾粉餘額，接近 2000 億美元，可以充分利用機會。我們的長期資本提供了投資的靈活性和火力，同時讓我們有耐心在時機成熟時出售資產。

The firm itself could not be in a stronger position with minimal net debt and no insurance liabilities, allowing us to distribute $4.7 billion to shareholders over the past 12 months through dividends and share repurchases. And we are in the early days of penetrating markets of enormous size and potential.

該公司本身處於非常有利的地位，淨債務極小，沒有保險負債，這使我們能夠在過去 12 個月內透過股利和股票回購向股東分配 47 億美元。我們正處於進入規模巨大、潛力巨大的市場的早期階段。

With that, I'll turn it over to John.

有了這個，我會把它交給約翰。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased with the firm's performance in the first quarter and the momentum building across our business. This momentum is underpinned by 3 key developments. First, the transaction environment has strengthened. Secondly, in private credit, demand from both investors and borrowers is expanding. And third, our private wealth business is reaccelerating. I'll discuss each of these areas in more detail, starting with the transaction environment.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。我們對公司第一季的業績以及整個業務的發展勢頭感到滿意。這一勢頭由三個關鍵發展支撐。一是交易環境有所改善。其次，在私人信貸方面，投資者和借款人的需求正在擴大。第三，我們的私人財富業務正在重新加速。我將從事務環境開始更詳細地討論每個領域。

The market backdrop has become more supportive. The 10-year treasury yield is still down from its October peak despite the recent run-up. Borrowing spreads have tightened significantly, and the ability of debt capital has increased significantly. We're also seeing M&A activity and the IPO market restarting.

市場背景變得更加有利。儘管近期有所上漲，但 10 年期公債殖利率仍低於 10 月的高峰。借貸利差明顯收緊，債務資本能力顯著增強。我們也看到併購活動和 IPO 市場重新啟動。

As we've stated before, the recovery will not be a straight line, but we're not waiting for the all-clear sign to invest. We deployed $25 billion in the first quarter and committed an additional $15 million to pending deals, including subsequent to quarter end. We were most active in our credit and insurance area, which I'll discuss further in a moment.

正如我們之前所說，復甦不會是一條直線，但我們不會等待一切明確的訊號來投資。我們在第一季部署了 250 億美元，並承諾額外投入 1500 萬美元用於待決交易，包括季度末之後的交易。我們在信貸和保險領域最為活躍，我稍後將進一步討論。

In real estate, we shared our view in January that commercial real estate values were bottoming, providing the foundation for an increase in transaction activity. This has coincided with several major investments by Blackstone.

在房地產方面，我們在一月份分享了我們的觀點，即商業房地產價值正在觸底，為交易活動的增加提供了基礎。這與 Blackstone 的幾項重大投資同時發生。

Just last week, we announced a $10 billion take-private of a high-quality rental housing platform, Air Communities, which follows our announcement in January to privatize Tricon Residential. Rental housing remains a major investment theme for us given the structural shortage in this space. U.S. is building roughly the same number of homes today as in 1960, despite having almost twice the population. We are also quite focused on European real estate, where we've now raised $7.6 billion for our new flagship vehicle as of quarter end.

就在上週，我們宣布斥資 100 億美元將高品質租賃住房平台 Air Communities 私有化，此前我們在 1 月宣布將 Tricon Residential 私有化。鑑於該領域的結構性短缺，租賃住房仍然是我們的主要投資主題。儘管美國人口幾乎是 1960 年的兩倍，但如今建造的房屋數量與 1960 年大致相同。我們也非常關注歐洲房地產，截至季度末，我們已為我們的新旗艦車型籌集了 76 億美元。

In private equity. We closed the acquisition of Rover in the first quarter, a leading digital marketplace in the pet space, along with an online payments business in Japan and a health care platform in India. The economy in India, which I visited 2 weeks ago, remains incredibly strong. We're fortunate to have what we believe is the largest private equity and real estate platform in that country.

在私募股權領域。我們在第一季完成了對 Rover 的收購，這是寵物領域領先的數位市場，以及日本的線上支付業務和印度的醫療保健平台。我兩週前訪問過的印度經濟仍然非常強勁。我們很幸運擁有我們認為是全國最大的私募股權和房地產平台。

Back home, our dedicated life science business announced a $750 million collaboration with Moderna to support the development of mRNA vaccines for influenza. And our growth equity fund invested in 7 Brew, an innovative quick-service coffee franchisor. As Steve highlighted, we are planting the seeds of future realizations.

在國內，我們專注的生命科學業務宣布與 Moderna 合作 7.5 億美元，支持流感 mRNA 疫苗的開發。我們的成長股權基金投資了 7 Brew，一家創新的快速服務咖啡特許經營商。正如史蒂夫所強調的那樣，我們正在播下實現未來的種子。

Turning to the second key development, our expansion in private credit. There is powerful innovation in the traditional model providing credit to borrowers. Our corporate, insurance and real estate debt businesses comprise over 6% of the firm's total inflows in the first quarter and nearly 60% of deployment. We continue to see strong interest in noninvestment-grade strategies such as opportunistic, direct lending and high yield real estate lending. We're also now seeing a dramatic increase in demand from our clients for all forms of investment-grade private credit including infrastructure, particularly in energy transition and digital infrastructure, residential real estate, commercial and consumer finance, fund finance and other types of asset-based credit.

談到第二個關鍵發展，我們擴大私人信貸。向借款人提供信貸的傳統模式有強大的創新。我們的企業、保險和房地產債務業務占公司第一季總流入量的 6% 以上，佔部署量的近 60%。我們繼續看到人們對機會主義直接貸款和高收益房地產貸款等非投資級策略抱持濃厚興趣。我們現在也看到客戶對各種形式的投資等級私人信貸（包括基礎設施）的需求急劇增加，特別是在能源轉型和數位基礎設施、住宅房地產、商業和消費金融、基金融資和其他類型的資產領域信用為本。

In our investment-grade-focused business, we believe there is a massive opportunity to deliver higher returns to clients with lower risk by moving a portion of their liquid IG portfolios to private markets. Alternatives have taken meaningful share of public equity portfolios over the past 30 years but little on the fixed income side.

在我們以投資等級為重點的業務中，我們相信透過將部分流動性投資等級投資組合轉移到私募市場，可以為風險較低的客戶帶來更高的回報。過去 30 年，另類投資在公共股票投資組合中佔據了相當大的份額，但在固定收益方面卻佔據了很小的份額。

In the insurance channel, this migration has been underway. And we've created a capital-light, open architecture model that can serve a multitude of limited partners. Worth noting, we crossed the $200 billion AUM milestone in insurance this quarter, up 20% year-over-year. In addition to our 4 largest clients, we now have SMA relationships with 14 insurers, which continue to grow in number and size. We placed or originated $14 billion of A-rated credits on average for them in the first quarter, up 71% year-over-year, and nearly $50 billion since the start of 2023. These credits generated approximately 200 basis points of excess spread over comparably-rated liquid credits.

在保險管道，這​​種遷移已經在進行中。我們創建了一個輕資本、開放的架構模型，可以為許多有限合夥人提供服務。值得注意的是，本季我們的保險資產管理規模突破了 2,000 億美元的里程碑，年增 20%。除了我們最大的 4 家客戶外，我們現在還與 14 家保險公司建立了 SMA 合作關係，這些保險公司的數量和規模仍在增加。第一季度，我們平均為他們發放或發放了 140 億美元的 A 級信貸，年增 71%，自 2023 年初以來已接近 500 億美元。的流動信貸。

In addition to insurance clients, pension funds and other LPs see the value we're creating in private credit, and there's been a strong response to our product offerings. With nearly $420 billion in BXCI and real estate credit, we're extremely well positioned to directly originate high-quality assets on behalf of a much larger universe of investors. We've also established numerous origination relationships as well as bank partnerships, most recently with Barclays and KeyBank, in areas like consumer credit card receivables, fund finance, home improvement and infrastructure credit, and we plan to add more.

除了保險客戶之外，退休基金和其他有限合夥人也看到了我們在私人信貸中創造的價值，並且對我們的產品產生了強烈的迴響。憑藉近 4200 億美元的 BXCI 和房地產信貸，我們處於非常有利的地位，可以代表更廣泛的投資者直接創造高品質資產。我們還在消費者信用卡應收帳款、基金融資、家居裝修和基礎設施信貸等領域建立了眾多發起關係和銀行合作夥伴關係，最近與巴克萊銀行和KeyBank 建立了合作夥伴關係，並且我們計劃增加更多。

These arrangements are a win-win. They create more flow for our investors who want to hold these investments, these assets long term, and they help our partners better serve their customers. We expect our credit and insurance platforms to grow significantly from here.

這些安排是雙贏的。它們為想要長期持有這些投資、這些資產的投資者創造了更多的流量，並幫助我們的合作夥伴更好地服務他們的客戶。我們預計我們的信貸和保險平台將從此大幅成長。

Moving to the third key development, the reaccelerating trends in our private wealth business. In January, we noted our momentum building as market volatility receded. And with the launch of BXPE, we now offer 3 large-scale perpetual vehicles, providing individual investors access to even more of the scale and breadth of Blackstone.

轉向第三個關鍵發展，我們的私人財富業務的重新加速趨勢。一月份，我們注意到隨著市場波動的減弱，我們的勢頭正在增強。隨著 BXPE 的推出，我們現在提供 3 種大型永續工具，讓個人投資者接觸到黑石更大的規模和廣度。

Our sales in the wealth channel were a robust $8 billion in the first quarter, including $6.6 billion for the perpetual strategies, as Steve noted. Subscription for the perpetuals increased 83% from Q4 and marked the best quarter of fundraising from individuals in nearly 2 years. BCRED led the way, raising $2.9 billion. BXPE has received very strong investor reception, raising $2.7 billion in its debut quarter, and we plan to expand to more distributors over the coming months.

正如史蒂夫指出的那樣，我們第一季財富管道的銷售額為 80 億美元，其中包括 66 億美元的永續策略。永續債券的認購量較第四季成長了 83%，創下近兩年來個人募款最好的季度。 BCRED 一馬當先，融資 29 億美元。 BXPE 受到了投資者的強烈歡迎，在首個季度籌集了 27 億美元，我們計劃在未來幾個月內擴展到更多分銷商。

Over 90% of advisers that have transacted with BXPE have previously done so with BREIT or BCRED, illustrating the affinity for our products and the power of the Blackstone brand in this channel. At the same time, BREIT has successfully navigated a challenging 2-year period for real estate markets. Its semi-liquid structure has worked as designed by providing liquidity while protecting performance. BREIT has delivered double the return of the public REIT Index since inception over 7 years.

超過 90% 與 BXPE 進行過交易的顧問先前曾與 BREIT 或 BCRED 進行過交易，這說明了我們產品的親和力以及 Blackstone 品牌在此管道中的力量。同時，BREIT 成功度過了房地產市場充滿挑戰的兩年。其半流動結構依設計發揮作用，在提供流動性的同時保護績效。自成立 7 年來，BREIT 的報酬率是公共 REIT 指數的兩倍。

This outperformance continued with strong results in Q1, underpinned by outstanding portfolio positioning that includes growth in its data center exposure. Repurchase requests in BREIT have fallen 85% from the peak to the lowest level in nearly 2 years, and the vehicle is no longer in proration. We're now seeing encouraging signs in terms of new sales, while repurchase requests are continuing their decline in April as well. We are confident in the recovery of BREIT flows over time given performance.

第一季的強勁業績持續保持著優異的表現，這得益於出色的投資組合定位，包括資料中心業務的成長。 BREIT 的回購請求已從峰值下降了 85%，降至近 2 年來的最低水平，車輛不再按比例分配。我們現在在新銷售方面看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，而四月份的回購請求也持續下降。鑑於表現，我們對 BREIT 流量隨著時間的推移而恢復充滿信心。

When looking at the $80 trillion private wealth landscape overall, allocations remain extremely low, and we expect a long runway of growth ahead. In closing, the firm is exceptionally well positioned, supported by both cyclical and secular tailwinds. That's why we believe the future is very bright for Blackstone.

縱觀 80 兆美元的私人財富整體格局，分配仍然極低，我們預計未來的成長還將很長。最後，在週期性和長期有利因素的支持下，該公司處於非常有利的地位。這就是為什麼我們相信 Blackstone 的未來非常光明。

With that, I'll turn things over to Michael Chae.

這樣，我就把事情交給 Michael Chae。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. Blackstone delivered strong results in the first quarter, highlighted by the reacceleration of fee-related earnings. I'll first review financial results and will then discuss investment performance and the forward outlook.

謝謝喬恩，大家早安。黑石在第一季取得了強勁的業績，其中與費用相關的利潤重新加速凸顯。我將首先回顧財務業績，然後討論投資績效和前景展望。

Starting with results. Fee-related earnings increased 12% year-over-year to $1.2 billion or $0.95 per share, the highest level in 6 quarters and the third best quarter in firm history, powered by double-digit growth in fee revenues, coupled with the firm's robust margin position. With respect to revenues, the firm's expansive breadth of strategies lifted management fees to a record $1.7 billion. Notably, Q1 reflected the 57th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth of base management fees at Blackstone.

從結果開始。費用相關收益年增12%，達到12 億美元，即每股0.95 美元，為6 個季度以來的最高水平，也是公司歷史上第三好的季度，這得益於費用收入兩位數的增長，以及公司強勁的業績表現。在營收方面，該公司廣泛的策略將管理費提升至創紀錄的 17 億美元。值得注意的是，第一季反映了 Blackstone 的基本管理費連續第 57 季同比增長。

Fee-related performance revenues doubled year-over-year to $296 million, generated by multiple perpetual capital vehicles in credit and real estate, including a steadily growing contribution from our direct lending business, scheduled crystallization in our European BPP logistics strategy, and BREIT. The setup for these high-quality revenues is favorable in 2024 and beyond, which I'll discuss further in a moment.

與費用相關的績效收入年增率翻了一番，達到2.96 億美元，由信貸和房地產領域的多種永續資本工具產生，包括我們的直接貸款業務的穩定增長的貢獻、我們歐洲BPP 物流戰略的預定結晶以及BREIT。這些高品質收入的設定在 2024 年及以後是有利的，我將在稍後進一步討論。

With respect to margins. FRE margin was 57.9% in the first quarter, in line with full year 2023. Distributable earnings were $1.3 billion in the first quarter or $0.98 per common share, stable year-over-year and underpinned by the growth in FRE. Net realizations remain muted at $293 million. And going forward, we expect a lag between improving markets and a step-up in net realizations.

關於利潤率。第一季 FRE 利潤率為 57.9%，與 2023 年全年一致。淨變現額仍低至 2.93 億美元。展望未來，我們預期市場改善與淨實現成長之間存在滯後。

In the meantime, the firm's strong underlying FRE generation has supported a consistent and attractive baseline of earnings with Q1 representing the tenth consecutive quarter of FRE over $1 billion. We did execute a number of sales in the quarter, including a stake in one of the largest cell tower platforms, public stock of the London Stock Exchange Group and the sales of certain other public and private holdings. We also closed or announced several dispositions in our real estate and infrastructure perpetual vehicles, which as a reminder, do not earn performance revenues based on individual asset sales but on NAV appreciation.

同時，該公司強大的基礎 FRE 發電支持了一致且有吸引力的盈利基線，第一季代表 FRE 連續第十個季度超過 10 億美元。我們在本季確實進行了多項出售，包括最大的手機訊號塔平台之一的股份、倫敦證券交易所集團的公開股票以及某些其他公共和私人持股的出售。我們也關閉或宣布了房地產和基礎設施永續工具的幾項處置，提醒一下，這些資產的業績收入不是根據個人資產銷售而是根據資產淨值升值來賺取的。

These included a trophy retail asset in Milan for EUR 1.3 billion, representing the largest real estate single-asset sale ever in Italy; portfolio of warehouses in Southern California; and a prime office building in Seoul. Each of these sales generated a substantial profit individually and in aggregate, a gross multiple of invested capital of approximately 2x. These dispositions exemplify the significant quality and embedded value within the firm's investment portfolio.

其中包括價值 13 億歐元的米蘭零售資產，這是義大利有史以來最大的房地產單一資產出售；位於南加州的倉庫組合；以及首爾的一棟優質辦公大樓。這些銷售中的每一項單獨和總計都產生了可觀的利潤，其投資資本的總倍數約為 2 倍。這些配置體現了公司投資組合的卓越品質和內在價值。

Turning to investment performance. Our funds generated healthy overall appreciation in the first quarter, as Steve noted. Infrastructure led the way with 4.8% appreciation in the quarter and 19% over the last 12 months with broad gains across digital, transportation and energy infrastructure. The QTS data center business was the single largest driver of appreciation for BIP, BREIT and BPP U.S. and for the firm overall in Q1.

轉向投資表現。正如史蒂夫指出的那樣，我們的基金在第一季實現了健康的整體升值。基礎建設領先，本季升值 4.8%，過去 12 個月升值 19%，數位、交通和能源基礎設施廣泛成長。 QTS 資料中心業務是 BIP、BREIT 和 BPP U.S. 以及整個公司第一季升值的最大推動力。

The comingled BIP vehicle has generated 15% net returns annually since inception, powering continued robust growth with platform AUM increasing 22% year-over-year to $44 billion. The corporate PE funds appreciated 3.4% in the quarter and 13% for the LTM period. Our operating companies overall reported healthy, albeit decelerating, revenue growth along with margin strength. In credit, we reported another outstanding quarter in the context of strong fundamentals and debt marks generally and tightening spreads with a gross return for the private credit strategies of 4.1% and 17% for the LTM period.

自成立以來，混合的 BIP 工具每年產生 15% 的淨回報，推動持續強勁成長，平台 AUM 較去年同期成長 22% 至 440 億美元。企業 PE 基金本季上漲 3.4%，LTM 期間上漲 13%。我們的營運公司總體上報告了健康的收入成長（儘管有所放緩）以及利潤率的強勁成長。在信貸方面，我們報告了另一個出色的季度，背景是強勁的基本面和整體債務水平以及利差收緊，私人信貸策略的長期總回報率為 4.1% 和 17%。

The default rate across our nearly 2,000 noninvestment-grade credits is less than 40 basis points over the last 12 months with 0 new defaults in our private credit business in Q1. Our multi-asset investing platform, BXMA, reported a 4.6% gross return for the absolute return of composite and 12% for the last 12 months, the best quarterly performance in over 3 years and the 16th quarter in a row of positive returns. Since the start of 2021, the composite has delivered nearly double the return of the 60-40 portfolio, net of fees, a remarkable result in liquid markets.

過去 12 個月，我們有近 2,000 個非投資等級信貸的違約率低於 40 個基點，第一季我們的私人信貸業務新增違約為零。我們的多元資產投資平台BXMA的綜合絕對報酬率為4.6%，過去12個月為12%，是三年多來最好的季度表現，也是連續第16個季度實現正回報。自 2021 年初以來，扣除費用後，該組合的回報率幾乎是 60-40 投資組合的兩倍，這在流動性市場中取得了顯著的成績。

Finally, in real estate. The Core+ funds appreciated 1.2% in the first quarter, while the BREP opportunistic funds appreciated 0.3%. These returns include the negative impact of currency translation for our non-U.S. holdings related to the stronger U.S. dollar equating to 20 and 60 basis points impact on each strategy, respectively. As Jon noted, we see a recovery under way in commercial real estate and in our portfolio cash flows are growing or stable in most areas.

最後，在房地產領域。 Core+基金第一季升值1.2%，而BREP機會主義基金升值0.3%。這些回報包括與美元走強相關的貨幣換算對我們的非美國持股的負面影響，相當於對每種策略分別產生 20 和 60 個基點的影響。正如喬恩所指出的那樣，我們看到商業房地產正在復蘇，並且在我們的投資組合中，大多數地區的現金流都在成長或穩定。

Overall, strong returns lifted net accrued performance revenue on the balance sheet, affirmed store value sequentially to $6.1 billion or $5 per share. Meanwhile, performance revenue-eligible AUM in the ground increased to a record $515 billion. The resiliency and strength of the firm's investment performance over many years and across cycles powers the Blackstone innovation machine and provides the foundation of future growth.

整體而言，強勁的回報提升了資產負債表上的淨應計業績收入，確認儲存價值連續達到 61 億美元或每股 5 美元。同時，符合業績收入條件的實際資產管理規模增加至創紀錄的 5,150 億美元。公司多年來跨週期的投資績效的彈性和實力為 Blackstone 創新機器提供動力，並為未來成長奠定了基礎。

Moving to the outlook, where several embedded drivers support a favorable multiyear picture of growth. First, the firm has raised approximately $80 billion that is not yet earning management fees and new drawdown fund vintages that haven't yet turned on, along with certain other funds. These commence when investment periods are activated or capital is deployed, depending on the strategy. We plan to activate our corporate private equity flagship this quarter, which has raised over $19 billion to date, followed by an effective 4-month fee holiday. We expect to activate several other drawdown funds over the balance of the year, followed by respective fee holidays.

展望未來，一些內在的驅動因素支持了有利的多年成長前景。首先，該公司已籌集了約 800 億美元，尚未賺取管理費和尚未啟動的新提取基金年份，以及某些其他基金。這些從投資期間啟動或資本部署時開始，取決於策略。我們計劃在本季啟動我們的企業私募股權旗艦產品，迄今為止該旗艦產品已籌集超過 190 億美元，隨後將實行為期 4 個月的有效費用減免期。我們預計將在今年餘下時間啟動其他幾項提款基金，然後再實施相應的費用減免期。

Second, our platform perpetual strategies has continued to expand, now comprising 45% of the firm's fee-earning AUM. As a reminder, our private wealth perpetual vehicles, including BREIT and BCRED, generate fee-related performance revenues quarterly as will BXPE starting in Q4 of this year. Our institutional strategies, BPP and real estate, and BIP and infrastructure, generate these revenues on multiyear schedules with a sizable crystallization for the comingled BIP vehicle scheduled to occur in Q4 of this year with respect to 3 years of accrued gains.

其次，我們的平台永續策略持續擴張，目前占公司收費資產管理規模的 45%。提醒一下，我們的私人財富永續工具（包括 BREIT 和 BCRED）每季都會產生與費用相關的績效收入，BXPE 從今年第四季開始也將如此。我們的機構策略、BPP 和房地產、BIP 和基礎設施，按多年計劃產生這些收入，併計劃於今年第四季度發生的混合 BIP 工具的相當大的結晶，涉及 3 年的應計收益。

Third, our investment-grade-focused credit business is on a strong positive trajectory, as Jon highlighted, and we expect $25 billion to $30 billion inflows again this year from our 4 major insurance clients below.

第三，正如喬恩所強調的那樣，我們以投資等級為重點的信貸業務正處於強勁的積極軌道，我們預計今年我們的以下 4 個主要保險客戶將再次流入 250 億至 300 億美元。

In closing, the firm has moved forward in a position of significant strength. Our momentum is accelerating in key growth channels, and our underlying earnings power emerging from this period of hibernation continues to build. We have great confidence in the outlook for the firm.

最後，該公司已經取得了顯著的優勢。我們在關鍵成長管道的勢頭正在加速，我們從這段冬眠期中顯現出來的潛在獲利能力繼續增強。我們對公司的前景充滿信心。

With that, we thank you for joining the call. I would like to open it up now for questions.

在此，我們感謝您加入此通話。我現在想打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們先去找摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Wanted to dig in on infrastructure. The platform continues to build, I heard $44 billion AUM, strong returns, 15% net. Maybe you could the platform build-out, the initiatives here that can help accelerate growth. It seems like there's a tremendous market opportunity out there. Just curious what you see as the gating item on seeing this business multiples of the size. Maybe talk about some of the steps you're taking around expanding your origination funnel and infrastructure, and as well as expanding the vehicles for capital raising across the return spectrum and customer sets globally.

想深入研究基礎設施。該平台繼續建設，聽說AUM 440億美元，回報強勁，淨值15%。也許你可以進行平台建設，這裡的舉措可以幫助加速成長。看起來那裡蘊藏著巨大的市場機會。只是好奇當你看到這個業務規模的倍數時，你認為什麼是門控專案。也許可以談談您正在採取的一些步驟，以擴大您的創始管道和基礎設施，以及擴大全球回報範圍和客戶群的融資工具。

Thank you, Mike. Infrastructure is clearly an area with a lot of potential for us. As a reminder, our program is less than 6 years old at this point, and we're already at $44 billion.

謝謝你，麥克。基礎設施顯然對我們來說是一個具有巨大潛力的領域。提醒一下，我們的計畫目前還不到 6 年，但我們的資金已經達到 440 億美元。

The key -- like building everything we do is delivering performance for the customers. Sean Klimczak and the team have delivered 15% net returns since inception in an open-ended vehicle, which is different than many of the other players in the space. We think that is a very powerful model because it allows us to partner with other long-term holders, and it matches the duration of the capital to long-duration infrastructure.

關鍵－就像我們所做的一切都是為客戶提供效能一樣。自開放式車輛誕生以來，Sean Klimczak 和他的團隊已經實現了 15% 的淨回報，這與該領域的許多其他參與者不同。我們認為這是一個非常強大的模型，因為它使我們能夠與其他長期持有者合作，並將資本的期限與長期基礎設施相匹配。

We positioned the business in 3 big areas: transportation infrastructure, coming out of COVID; energy and energy transition, obviously, a very important area today for a whole host of reasons; and then digital infrastructure, which Michael pointed out, has been the biggest driver of value both in real estate and in infrastructure and across the firm in this most recent quarter.

我們將業務定位在三大領域：交通基礎建設、走出新冠疫情；出於多種原因，能源和能源轉型顯然是當今非常重要的領域；然後，麥可指出，數位基礎設施一直是最近一個季度房地產和基礎設施以及整個公司價值的最大推動力。

So we think we've done a really exceptional job deploying the capital. We have a lot of clients who are quite pleased. I think the base business can grow, and I think there are opportunities geographically to expand this. Our current fund is focused primarily on the U.S., but we've done a number of large things in Europe. And I think there's opportunities in infrastructure in both Europe and Asia over time. And it's an area that we have real strength.

因此，我們認為我們在資本部署方面做得非常出色。我們有很多非常滿意的客戶。我認為基礎業務可以成長，而且我認為在地理上有機會擴展這項業務。我們目前的基金主要集中在美國，但我們在歐洲也做了一些大事。我認為隨著時間的推移，歐洲和亞洲的基礎設施建設都存在機會。這是我們真正有實力的領域。

I would add to the mix, infrastructure credit, something we're doing as well. And interestingly, when you think about what we're doing for insurance clients, what we have in infrastructure and things like digital infrastructure, green energy, it's very helpful for investment-grade debt as well given our insights and relationships. So this is an area where we're still seeing investors showing a lot of enthusiasm. I think it will continue to be a growth area on the back of what we built. I think we can create other products. And we see this growing to be, I think, as we've talked about in previous calls, a triple-digit AUM business.

我想添加基礎設施信貸，這是我們正在做的事情。有趣的是，當你想到我們為保險客戶所做的事情，我們在基礎設施以及數位基礎設施、綠色能源等方面擁有的東西時，考慮到我們的見解和關係，這對投資級債務非常有幫助。因此，我們仍然看到投資者在這個領域表現出很大的熱情。我認為，在我們所建立的基礎上，它將繼續成為一個成長領域。我認為我們可以創造其他產品。我認為，正如我們在之前的電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們看到這項業務正在成長為三位數的資產管理規模業務。

And Jon, I'd just add on, I think you might agree that I think if you step back, Mike, you could analogize it sort of the multi-decade growth path of real estate, that business overall with respect to another area of relapse that's infrastructure, and that is geographic/regional expansion, expansion up and down the risk/return spectrum across asset classes between equity and debt, and also serving different customer channels, whether it's retail insurance or institutional. So that's another way to dimension it.

喬恩，我想補充一點，我想你可能會同意，我認為如果你退後一步，邁克，你可以將其類比為房地產的數十年增長路徑，該業務總體上與另一個領域有關這就是基礎設施，即地理/區域擴張，在股票和債務之間跨資產類別的風險/回報範圍上下擴張，並服務於不同的客戶管道，無論是零售保險還是機構保險。這是另一種確定尺寸的方法。

We'll go next to Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

接下來我們將討論美國銀行的克雷格‧西根塔勒 (Craig Siegenthaler)。

My question is on real estate. So with deployments picking up with both the Tricon and Apartment Income take privates. And John, I heard your comments earlier this morning, but it sounds like the Blackstone house view is that the work-from-home and interest rate hit are now baked into cap rates. So given all this, can you comment on where we are in the investing cycle, be it dry powder at BREP, BPP and BREIT? And I also wanted your perspective on returns now that BREIT is back above its BREP, putting 2Q in a better position for FRPR?

我的問題是關於房地產的。因此，隨著 Tricon 和 Apartment Income 私有化的部署不斷增加。約翰，我今天早上早些時候聽到了你的評論，但聽起來黑石集團的觀點是，在家工作和利率打擊現在已納入上限利率中。考慮到這一切，您能否評論一下我們在投資週期中的位置，無論是 BREP、BPP 還是 BREIT 的乾粉？我還想知道您對現在 BREIT 回到其 BREP 之上的回報的看法，這使得 FRPR 在第二季度處於更好的位置？

Sure, Craig. As we've talked about and you noted, there have been 2 big headwinds there. One in the office sector, specifically in the U.S., where we have very little exposure, the impact of remote work and also capital needs in older office buildings. The second thing has just been the movement upward in interest rates and the rise in spreads that happened. And both of those, I believe, peaked back in October. And that has really worked its way through the market.

當然，克雷格。正如我們所討論的和您所指出的，存在兩大阻力。其中一個是在辦公領域，特別是在美國，我們很少接觸到遠距工作的影響以及舊辦公大樓的資本需求。第二件事是利率上升和利差上升。我相信，這兩者都在十月達到頂峰。這確實在市場上發揮了作用。

Interestingly, of course, there'll still be plenty of challenging headlines from assets that were financed in a different environment as they worked their way through the system. And that's sort of -- it's almost as if something happened to a ship at sea and then it comes ashore. We saw this after the financial crisis, where real estate values bottomed in that summer of '09, but you had negative headlines in real estate for the next 3 years.

當然，有趣的是，當資產在不同的環境中透過系統運作時，仍然會出現許多具有挑戰性的頭條新聞。這有點像是——一艘船在海上發生了什麼事，然後它就上岸了。我們在金融危機之後看到了這一點，當時房地產價值在 09 年夏天觸底，但在接下來的 3 年裡，房地產行業的頭條新聞都是負面的。

We spent a lot of that time, of course, deploying capital into that dislocated period where people were still cautious. What gives us confidence as we look forward here is one is this reduction in cost of capital. We've obviously seen spreads tighten a fair amount, probably 125 basis points in CMBS in the first quarter and through the end of the fourth quarter last year. We also saw CMBS issuance go up fivefold versus the first quarter of 2023. So that, and the fact that the Fed at some point here will be bringing rates down, and that's important as well.

當然，我們花了很多時間將資金部署到人們仍然保持謹慎的混亂時期。讓我們充滿信心的是資本成本的降低。我們顯然看到 CMBS 利差收緊了相當多的幅度，從去年第一季到第四季末，CMBS 的利差可能收窄了 125 個基點。我們也看到 CMBS 發行量比 2023 年第一季增加了五倍。

The other thing I'd add is on the supply front. We've seen in logistics, an 80% decline in new starts. We've seen in multifamily, a 50% decline in peak starts -- from peak starts as well. And so that starts to lay the groundwork. In terms of timing, I would think about this period of time is a time of seed planting that you want to be investing into this dislocation because there's a lot of uncertainty. There may be for sellers, there may be public companies trading at discounts. And then over time, as things start to normalize, you start to accelerate on the realization.

我要補充的另一件事是在供應方面。我們看到物流領域的新開工量下降了 80%。我們已經看到，在多戶住宅中，高峰開工率也比高峰開工率下降了 50%。這樣就開始奠定基礎了。就時機而言，我認為這段時間是你想要投資這種錯位的種子播種期，因為存在著許多不確定性。對於賣家來說，可能會有上市公司以折扣價進行交易。然後隨著時間的推移，隨著事情開始正常化，你開始加速實現。

But first, I think it's the deployment period then the realization period as you move out, similar to that post-GFC period. That's certainly the way we're playing it. And in terms of capital, we obviously have a very large $30 billion global fund. We said we've raised over $7.5 billion in Europe. We have most of our $8-plus billion Asia fund still uninvested. So a lot of opportunistic capital to deploy. So we're forward leaning as it relates to deployment, even though we recognize there's still going to be a lot of assets from the previous period working their way through the system.

但首先，我認為這是部署期，然後是你搬離時的實現期，類似後全球金融危機時期。這當然就是我們玩遊戲的方式。就資本而言，我們顯然擁有300億美元的龐大全球基金。我們說我們已經在歐洲籌集了超過 75 億美元。我們超過 8 億美元的亞洲基金大部分仍未投資。所以大量的機會主義資本進行部署。因此，我們在部署方面具有前瞻性，儘管我們認識到仍然會有大量上一時期的資產透過系統發揮作用。

We'll go next to Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

My question is around BXPE. Really strong momentum out of the gate, obviously, $2.7 billion that you guys highlighted this quarter and over the last couple of months. What's the vision for this product in terms of both capacity and maybe the appropriate size of the strategy as well as the pace at which you feel comfortable taking in inflows?

我的問題是關於 BXPE 的。顯然，你們在本季和過去幾個月中強調了 27 億美元的強勁勢頭。從容量和策略的適當規模以及您認為可以接受的資金流入的速度來看，該產品的願景是什麼？

And I don't want to draw too much parallel with BREIT. Obviously, a very different product, very different customer base. But thinking of that one, I think, peaking at north of $70 billion, how are you thinking about the size and opportunity for BXPE?

我不想與 BREIT 有太多相似之處。顯然，這是一個非常不同的產品，非常不同的客戶群。但想到這一點，我想，高峰超過 700 億美元，您如何看待 BXPE 的規模和機會？

Well, I think it's a great question, Alex. One of the things we did when we designed BXPE was to make the platform as broad as possible so that we could scale the product and we could be flexible on behalf of investors, in terms of where we deployed it. So control large-scale private equity is part of it. U.S., Europe, Asia is part of it. Tactical Opportunities, more hybrid equity, part of it. Life sciences growth, part of it. Secondaries, infrastructure, some opportunistic credit. It's a very broad platform, and it enables us to deploy a lot.

嗯，我認為這是一個很好的問題，亞歷克斯。我們在設計 BXPE 時所做的事情之一就是使平台盡可能廣泛，以便我們可以擴展產品，並且我們可以在部署地點方面代表投資者保持靈活性。所以控制大型私募股權是其中的一部分。美國、歐洲、亞洲都是其中的一部分。戰術機會，更多的混合股權，是其中的一部分。生命科學的發展是其中的一部分。二級市場、基礎建設、一些機會主義信貸。這是一個非常廣泛的平台，它使我們能夠進行大量部署。

One of the advantages of Blackstone is just our scale and the amount of deal flow we see across all these different areas. And particularly our connectivity with many other countries in the private equity space through our secondaries, our credit business, our GP stakes business. We can be great partners to those folks. Obviously, we can manufacture a lot of transactions ourselves. So we think the potential scale here is quite large.

Blackstone 的優勢之一就是我們的規模以及我們在所有這些不同領域看到的交易流量。特別是我們透過我們的二級市場、我們的信貸業務、我們的普通合夥人股權業務，與私募股權領域的許多其他國家建立了聯繫。我們可以成為這些人的偉大合作夥伴。顯然，我們可以自己製造很多交易。所以我們認為這裡的潛在規模是相當大的。

You pointed out BREIT scale. We're over $30 billion of equity, nearly $60 billion of assets in BCRED. We think this can grow a lot. The key is we have to deliver strong performance to the underlying customers. We have to be disciplined in how we deploy capital and thoughtful. I think we've been doing that. I think we'll continue to do that, and that's what gives us a lot of confidence, which is investors want exposure to private equity. Individual investors want a little bit of a different structure, and that's why I think BXPE is so attractive.

您指出了 BREIT 規模。我們在 BCRED 擁有超過 300 億美元的股本和近 600 億美元的資產。我們認為這可以增長很多。關鍵是我們必須為底層客戶提供強勁的業績。我們必須在如何配置資本方面保持紀律並深思熟慮。我想我們一直在這樣做。我認為我們將繼續這樣做，這給了我們很大的信心，投資者希望接觸私募股權。個人投資者想要一點不同的結構，這就是為什麼我認為 BXPE 如此有吸引力。

So I think as we come out of this period over the last 2 years, where there's been a lot of caution and negativity, as market sentiment improves, as we show the strong performance from our other individual investor products, I think there's a potential here, pretty good size. Again, we've got to do a good job deploying capital, but I've got a lot of confidence, particularly given the breadth of the platform. So the short answer is I think this can grow to be much larger than it is today.

因此，我認為，當我們走出過去兩年的這段時期時，隨著市場情緒的改善，隨著我們展示其他個人投資者產品的強勁表現，我認為這裡有潛力，尺寸相當不錯。同樣，我們必須做好資本部署工作，但我很有信心，特別是考慮到平台的廣度。所以簡短的回答是，我認為這個規模可能會比現在大得多。

We'll go next to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

接下來我們將與傑弗里斯一起前往丹·範農 (Dan Fannon)。

Michael, last quarter, the message for this year on margins was stability. The first quarter was flat with last year. As you think about the momentum in the business that you highlighted and the prospects for growth and growth in AUM, how are you thinking about margins as you think about the rest of the year?

邁克爾，上個季度，今年關於利潤率的訊息是穩定。第一季與去年持平。當您思考您所強調的業務動能以及資產管理規模的成長和成長前景時，您如何看待今年剩餘時間的利潤率？

Thanks, Dan. Yes, I think that my message is consistent. First of all, in terms of the actual result, as you noted in the first quarter, quite stable, quite consistent, quite in line with both the first quarter a year ago and the full year 2023. I think as always, we guide people to look not at individual quarters but sort of on a full year basis. And I think on that basis, we would again encourage people to think about this as reinforce margin stability as a guidepost.

謝謝，丹。是的，我認為我的信息是一致的。首先，就實際結果而言，正如您在第一季所指出的那樣，非常穩定、非常一致，與一年前的第一季度和 2023 年全年非常一致。個別季度，而是看全年。我認為在此基礎上，我們會再次鼓勵人們將其視為加強保證金穩定性的路標。

And then, again, consistent with our message over a long time, on a longer-term basis, we do think there's operating leverage built into our model. We, obviously, actively manage our cost structure. And we think long term, there is a -- it's a robust margin position that will scale and leverage over time. So back to where we started, I would reinforce margin stability as the message and over the long term, feel optimistic about the ability to increase that.

然後，再次，與我們長期以來的信息一致，從長遠來看，我們確實認為我們的模型中內建了營運槓桿。顯然，我們積極管理我們的成本結構。我們認為，從長遠來看，這是一個強勁的保證金頭寸，將隨著時間的推移而擴大規模並發揮槓桿作用。因此，回到我們開始的地方，我將加強保證金穩定性作為訊息，從長遠來看，我對增加保證金的能力感到樂觀。

We'll go next to Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將與 Evercore ISI 一起討論 Glenn Schorr。

I got a question to peel back the onion a little bit on this commentary on bank partnerships. So when we watch you do something like Barclays where you've taken a credit card book and give to your insurance clients, that makes sense to us. That's like a cash transaction, it's tangible. So we read a little more about the rising of synthetic risk transfer trends. And I'm just curious, that's something that's obviously harder for us to follow. It gives us shivers. It reminds us about 16 years ago. Curious of your thoughts on how much [SRT] is going on in the industry, how much you do? And maybe you can talk about what type of partnerships you envision going forward.

我有一個問題要稍微剝開關於銀行合作夥伴關係的評論的洋蔥。因此，當我們看到您做像巴克萊銀行這樣的事情時，您將信用卡簿交給您的保險客戶，這對我們來說是有意義的。這就像現金交易一樣，是有形的。因此，我們更了解了綜合風險轉移趨勢的上升。我只是很好奇，這對我們來說顯然更難遵循。它讓我們不寒而慄。這讓我們想起了16年前。好奇您對業界 [SRT] 的進展有何看法，您做了多少？也許您可以談談您未來設想的合作夥伴類型。

Thanks, Glenn. SRTs are an area we're very active. I think we're the market leader today, in terms of working with our bank partners. For them, these are capital-relief transactions, as you know, where you're sharing in or taking first loss positions. We've been doing this with a variety of banks who are highly creditworthy institutions.

謝謝，格倫。 SRT 是我們非常活躍的一個領域。我認為，就與銀行合作夥伴的合作而言，我們是當今的市場領導者。如您所知，對他們來說，這些是資本減免交易，您可以分享或承擔首次虧損頭寸。我們一直在與各種信譽良好的銀行合作。

One of the advantages we have is the strength we have across asset ownership and also corporate and real estate credit. So if we do these with bank partners, we can go through them in detail. The most active area has been subscription lines to date, which, as you probably know, subscription lines to private equity firms have had virtually no defaults over the last 30, 40 years. So we like that area.

我們的優勢之一是我們在資產所有權以及企業和房地產信貸方面的實力。因此，如果我們與銀行合作夥伴一起進行這些工作，我們就可以詳細了解它們。迄今為止最活躍的領域是認購額度，正如您可能知道的那樣，私募股權公司的認購額度在過去 30、40 年裡幾乎沒有違約情況。所以我們喜歡那個地區。

When we work in investment grade or noninvestment grade, much of it's been around revolvers, which historically have had much lower loss ratios. And we were able to go through these portfolios and look at the credits we're taking. We do this, of course, not as Blackstone but on behalf of our investors in various vehicles and funds. The returns -- we've been doing this, by the way, for a number of years.

當我們從事投資級或非投資級工作時，大部分都是圍繞著左輪手槍進行的，從歷史上看，左輪手槍的損失率要低得多。我們能夠瀏覽這些作品集並查看我們所獲得的學分。當然，我們這樣做並不是以 Blackstone 的名義，而是代表我們各種工具和基金的投資者。順便說一句，我們多年來一直在這樣做。

And I just think our ability to look at the underlying credit as opposed to just make a macro call is our competitive advantage and our ability to do this and scale with the bank. So I see this as a win-win. It helps banks with some of the Basel pressure, balance sheet pressures they have, and we're able to generate favorable returns. So I think this is a very good thing for the system overall. I think we're doing it in a quite responsible way. Our team is very experienced in how they execute these transactions.

我只是認為我們有能力審視潛在的信貸，而不是只是做出宏觀預測，這是我們的競爭優勢，也是我們做到這一點並與銀行一起擴大規模的能力。所以我認為這是雙贏的。它可以幫助銀行應對一些巴塞爾壓力和資產負債表壓力，並且我們能夠產生良好的回報。所以我認為這對整個系統來說是一件非常好的事情。我認為我們正在以一種非常負責任的方式來做這件事。我們的團隊在如何執行這些交易方面非常有經驗。

We'll go next to Crispin Love with Piper Sandler.

接下來我們將與派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler) 一起去克里斯平·洛夫 (Crispin Love)。

So in recent weeks, there's definitely been a shift in the rate outlook as we're likely in a (inaudible) for-longer scenario, which is very different than just 3 months ago. So can you just talk a little bit how that might impact your outlook for investment activity and putting dry power to work going forward and then just how it might shift the areas where you're most excited about deploying capital?

因此，最近幾週，利率前景肯定發生了變化，因為我們可能處於（聽不清楚）更長的情況，這與三個月前有很大不同。那麼，您能否簡單談談這可能會如何影響您的投資活動前景，以及如何將乾動力投入到未來的工作中，然後它將如何改變您對部署資本最感興趣的領域？

Well, I do think it extends the investment window a bit for our $191 billion of dry powder. I think as people were getting closer to anticipating rate cuts, you saw big rallies in both equity and debt markets. And that can make it a little bit tougher to deploy capital. In some ways, it's helpful for financings but it also can drive prices up.

嗯，我確實認為這稍微延長了我們 1,910 億美元乾粉的投資窗口。我認為，隨著人們越來越接近降息預期，股票和債務市場都出現了大幅反彈。這可能會讓資本部署變得更加困難。在某些方面，這對融資有幫助，但也會推高價格。

From our perspective, because we're buying assets so often for longer periods of time, the fact that a rate cut may happen 90 days or 180 days later is not really a long-term negative, and if anything, allows us to get into some assets at more favorable pricing. So the way I would think about it is it extends out to deployment period.

從我們的角度來看，由於我們經常在更長的時間內購買資產，因此 90 天或 180 天後可能發生降息這一事實並不是真正的長期負面影響，如果有的話，可以讓我們進入一些資產的定價更優惠。所以我的想法是它延伸到部署期。

It may slow some of the realizations and push them out a bit as well. But when we think about delivering value for our customers, we see it as a positive. Obviously, for businesses like our credit business, which is mostly floating rate, it enhances returns for our underlying customers.

它可能會減慢一些實現的速度，並將它們推遲一些。但當我們考慮為客戶提供價值時，我們認為這是正面的。顯然，對於像我們的信貸業務這樣的業務（主要是浮動利率）來說，它提高了我們基礎客戶的回報。

I do think it's important to note that unlike October and the end of the summer when rates moved and spreads really gapped out, we haven't seen that accompanying change. So markets seem to be in a much healthier spot but I do think it probably prolongs the investment window here. And as we keep saying, we're not going to wait for the all-clear sign. You saw a big ramp-up. We had $25 billion of deployment in the quarter. And I think in terms of commitments and then as of quarter end-plus beyond the quarter end, we have another $15 billion that's committed.

我確實認為值得注意的是，與十月和夏末利率變動且利差確實出現缺口不同，我們沒有看到隨之而來的變化。因此，市場似乎處於一個更健康的位置，但我確實認為這可能會延長這裡的投資窗口。正如我們一直說的，我們不會等待解除警報的信號。你看到了一個很大的提升。本季我們部署了 250 億美元。我認為就承諾而言，截至季末加上季末之後，我們還有另外 150 億美元的承諾。

So you're seeing us move. We did our first deal in growth in quite some time. Real estate, we've talked about, we've obviously, accelerated there. In our secondaries business, the pipeline of deals we're looking at is about 2x where it was 90 days ago. So we're seeing a pickup in activity. It won't be everywhere. But I do think it creates more of a chance for us to deploy capital at prices we find attractive.

所以你看到我們在移動。我們完成了相當長一段時間以來的第一筆成長交易。我們已經討論過，房地產業顯然已經加速發展。在我們的二級市場業務中，我們正在關注的交易數量約為 90 天前的兩倍。所以我們看到活動有所回升。它不會無所不在。但我確實認為這為我們創造了更多機會以我們認為有吸引力的價格部署資本。

We'll go next to Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將採訪德意志銀行的布萊恩‧比德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

Maybe just to add on to that question on that pace of deployment in 2 specific areas, real estate and credit. Just going back to the comment you just made, Jon, about extending the period, but does that make you sort of more excited about potential opportunities given that extension of the period that could depress prices in real estate?

也許只是補充一下關於房地產和信貸這兩個特定領域的部署速度的問題。回到你剛才發表的關於延長期限的評論，但是考慮到延長期限可能會壓低房地產價格，這是否會讓你對潛在的機會更加興奮？

And with massive dry powder, especially in real estate, could that bring that level of deployment back up to sort of prior year levels in the high -- mid- to high $40 billion ranges? And then just secondarily in private credit, a little different dynamic with less dry powder but more fundraising. So I guess, same question there. Or do you think you can get up to sort of similar types of record levels in the mid- to high $40 billions and like on, say, for 2024 for deployment?

有了大量的乾粉，尤其是在房地產領域，這是否可以使部署水準恢復到去年 400 億美元高、中、高水準？其次是私人信貸，動力略有不同，乾粉較少，但籌款較多。所以我想，那裡也有同樣的問題。或者您認為您是否可以達到類似類型的中高 400 億美元的記錄水平，例如 2024 年的部署？

Brian, it's hard to put numbers on things, so I'll talk about it directionally. I do think when rates go up, the market tends -- the public markets tend to move much more than what we see in the private market. So for real estate, I do think that creates more opportunity for scalable deployment as some of those stocks move off, particularly if the debt market hangs in there. And so that disconnect can create opportunity.

Brian，很難用數字來描述事情，所以我會定向地談論它。我確實認為，當利率上升時，市場就會趨向——公開市場的波動往往比我們在私人市場看到的要大得多。因此，對於房地產而言，我確實認為，隨著其中一些股票的下跌，尤其是在債務市場持續存在的情況下，這為可擴展部署創造了更多機會。因此，這種脫節可以創造機會。

We've seen a pickup in Europe in real estate as well, some of that relating to distress. And there's very negative sentiment, even though the fundamentals on the ground are actually pretty good in our chosen sectors. And we're seeing overall in Europe, I think there, we'll see rates come down more quickly than the U.S., which is helpful. So short answer, yes, it should help real estate deployment.

我們也看到了歐洲房地產業的回升，其中一些與困境有關。儘管我們選擇的行業的基本面實際上相當好，但市場情緒仍然非常消極。我們看到歐洲的整體情況，我認為在那裡，我們會看到利率下降的速度比美國更快，這是有幫助的。簡短的回答是，是的，它應該有助於房地產部署。

On private credit, we've got a lot of momentum, particularly in the investment-grade and asset-backed area. That's where we're probably most active right now. The need for capital around digital and energy infrastructure, enormous. The needs for power tied to digital infrastructure but also electrification of vehicles, reshoring, very significant, and there's going to be a huge need for capital. So we see that almost regardless of the interest rate environment.

在私人信貸方面，我們有很大的動力，特別是在投資等級和資產支援領域。這可能是我們現在最活躍的地方。數位和能源基礎設施對資本的需求龐大。對電力的需求與數位基礎設施有關，而且也與車輛電氣化、回流有關，非常重要，而且對資本的需求也很大。所以我們看到幾乎無論利率環境如何。

I do think on the direct lending side, we've seen some spread tightening. Rates coming down will be helpful to see deal activity. And I think at that point, we'll see a pickup. But regardless, our pipeline and credit both on the investment-grade and noninvestment-grade size has accelerated. So it's hard to say exactly how this happens. But we feel good about the momentum and deployment. And I use my very scientific briefcase indicator, how many investment memos I'm taking home over a weekend, and they've definitely been trending up. So I think that bodes well. It's hard to predict exactly how it manifests itself. But it feels like, certainly, this will be a more active year than last year for deployment.

我確實認為在直接貸款方面，我們已經看到利差有所收緊。利率下降將有助於看到交易活動。我認為到那時，我們會看到一個皮卡。但無論如何，我們的投資等級和非投資等級規模的管道和信貸都在加速。所以很難說清楚這是如何發生的。但我們對勢頭和部署感到滿意。我使用非常科學的公文包指標，即我在周末帶回家的投資備忘錄數量，而且它們肯定呈上升趨勢。所以我認為這是個好兆頭。很難準確預測它會如何表現。但毫無疑問，今年的部署將比去年更活躍。

We'll go next to Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

接下來我們將討論摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

Looking into BPP, net accrued performance revenue, $73 million. I assume, down on this quarter's crystallization. But IRRs are down to 6%, which I think is below the hurdle rate there. I know BPP is a collection of front-end investments, like Biometal and way. What needs to happen here for returns to recover and accrued performance fees to build into what I think are big crystallizations anticipated for next year?

看看 BPP，淨應計績效收入為 7,300 萬美元。我認為，本季的結晶會有所下降。但 IRR 已降至 6%，我認為這低於那裡的最低門檻。我知道BPP是前端投資的集合，像是Biometal和way。這裡需要發生什麼才能恢復回報和應計績效費用以納入我認為明年預計的重大結晶？

So Ken, you pointed it out correctly. It's a bunch of different vehicles with different hurdle rates and different performance, some of which obviously are at higher levels, some lower levels. It feels to us, as we've been talking about, that real estate has moved towards this lower ebb. And it's fortunately a cyclical business, right? When you stop building new supply, as the cost of capital comes down, you get a recovery. And if you look back over time, to the early '90s after the 2001 downturn, certainly after the GFC.

所以肯，你指出的是正確的。這是一堆具有不同門檻率和不同性能的不同車輛，其中一些顯然處於較高水平，有些則處於較低水平。正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們感覺房地產已經走向了低潮。幸運的是，這是一個週期性業務，對嗎？當你停止建造新的供應時，隨著資本成本的下降，你就會復甦。如果你回顧一下時間，2001 年經濟低迷之後的 90 年代初，當然是全球金融危機之後。

The great thing is these are long-duration vehicles. The capital is going to stick with us for quite some time. And ultimately, we'll get other opportunities when these crystallization events come up. And so I would say the fact that we think we're positioned in some really good sectors, really good geographies. We have big exposure to logistics, in Europe in particular. We've got some really high quality of data centers in some of our investment vehicles here as well.

最棒的是這些都是長期行駛的車輛。首都將在相當長的一段時間內與我們同在。最終，當這些結晶事件發生時，我們將獲得其他機會。所以我想說的是，我們認為我們處於一些非常好的產業、非常好的地區。我們在物流領域有很大的業務，尤其是在歐洲。我們在這裡的一些投資工具也擁有一些非常高品質的資料中心。

I would say, overall, it's a combination of the quality of what we own and the sentiment in the sector improving. And when that happens, we'll get these unrealized performance fees that happen on a regular basis. So to me, it's a matter of time. It goes to the larger issue of a large portion of our earnings in hibernation. The fact that we're still able to earn $0.98 even though incentive fees are well off what we think their long-term potential are, realizations in our opportunistic funds and private equity funds, below potential.

我想說，總的來說，這是我們所擁有的品質和行業情緒改善的結合。當這種情況發生時，我們將定期獲得這些未實現的績效費用。所以對我來說，這只是時間問題。這涉及到我們大部分收入處於冬眠狀態的更大問題。事實上，儘管激勵費用遠低於我們認為的長期潛力，但我們的機會主義基金和私募股權基金的實現低於潛力，我們仍然能夠賺取 0.98 美元。

I think there's a lot of embedded upside in this firm, and you pointed out to one area of BPP. It's hard to put in an exact date because it's going to be a function of sort of the pace of the recovery. But we're pretty confident that commercial real estate over time recovers, and that foundation is starting to come into place.

我認為這家公司有很多內在的優勢，您也指出了 BPP 的一個領域。很難給出確切的日期，因為這將取決於復甦的速度。但我們非常有信心商業房地產會隨著時間的推移而復甦，而這個基礎已經開始到位。

We'll go next to Ben Budish with Barclays.

接下來我們將與巴克萊銀行的 Ben Budish 會面。

I wanted to follow up on, I think, Dan's question earlier on the margins. Just a couple of kind of housekeeping items maybe for Michael. On the fee-related performance comp ratio, it looks like that has been sort of trending. It was a bit lower in the quarter than we expected, and it looks like it's been a little bit volatile over the last like year or so versus sort of 40% range we tend to expect. So any color there? And then sort of on the same lines, the stock-based comp stepped up a little bit in the quarter. Just curious how we should be thinking about that trending throughout the rest of the year.

我想我想跟進丹早些時候在邊緣提出的問題。也許只是麥可的幾種家務用品。就與費用相關的績效補償比率而言，這似乎已經成為一種趨勢。本季的價格比我們的預期要低一些，而且看起來在過去一年左右的時間裡有點波動，而我們傾向於預期的 40% 的範圍。那麼有什麼顏色嗎？同樣，基於股票的比較在本季度略有上升。只是好奇我們應該如何思考今年剩餘時間的趨勢。

Sure, Ben. I think on the margins on the fee-related performance revenues, there is variability over time. But I think it's important to point out, as a practical matter, we think about sort of fee revenues and comp holistically on a business-by-business basis. And so -- and that gives us the ability, I think, to manage that, I think, thoughtfully over time. So you'll see variability over the long run for BREP margins, where some are aligned with the firm margin overall. But in the near term, you will see that move around based on the fact that we manage things holistically, I think, for the benefit of the firm shareholders.

當然，本。我認為與費用相關的績效收入的邊際隨著時間的推移會改變。但我認為重要的是要指出，作為一個實際問題，我們會考慮各種費用收入，並在逐個業務的基礎上進行整體比較。因此，我認為，這使我們有能力隨著時間的推移而深思熟慮地管理這一點。因此，從長遠來看，您會看到 BREP 利潤率的變化，其中一些利潤率與整體公司利潤率一致。但在短期內，你會看到這種變化是基於我們整體管理事物這一事實，我認為，這是為了公司股東的利益。

On equity-based comp, I think when you step back, there is seasonality in the first quarter around that line item. And sort of movements between, say, Q4 of last year and Q1 are affected by that as well as other puts and takes. But if you sort of step back and look at the kind of growth trajectory, in Q1, it grew about 19% year-over-year. That's lower than the 2023 overall growth rate, which was 23%. That, in turn, was about half the growth rate of 2022 overall. And so we do expect -- you are seeing this move lower over time given sort of stable grant levels, and we think that's a positive.

關於基於股權的比較，我認為當你退後一步時，第一季該訂單項目存在季節性。比如說，去年第四季和第一季之間的走勢受到了這一點以及其他看跌期權和看跌期權的影響。但如果你退後一步看看成長軌跡，你會發現第一季年增約 19%。這低於 2023 年 23% 的整體成長率。這大約是 2022 年整體成長率的一半。因此，我們確實預計，鑑於補助金水平穩定，您會看到隨著時間的推移，這種變化會降低，我們認為這是積極的。

We'll go next to Steve Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將採訪沃爾夫研究公司的史蒂夫·丘巴克（Steve Chubak）。

So it was encouraging to hear the positive commentary on private credit deployment despite the reopening of public or syndicated markets. But given the increased competition for deals, you know that credit spreads are tightening, high levels of credit dry powder. Curious if you're seeing any tangible signs or evidence of credit underwriting standards potentially growing more lax, and how that could dampen the pace of deployment across the credit platform?

因此，儘管公共或銀團市場重新開放，但聽到對私人信貸部署的正面評論還是令人鼓舞的。但考慮到交易競爭的加劇，你知道信用利差正在收緊，信用乾粉水準很高。好奇您是否看到任何明顯的跡像或證據表明信貸承保標準可能變得更加寬鬆，以及這將如何抑制整個信貸平台的部署步伐？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Please standby as we reconnect our speakers.

請等待，我們將重新連接揚聲器。

And obviously, very high multiples. Today, in the first quarter on our direct lending, the average loan-to-value was 44%. And now part of that, of course, is driven by the fact that interest costs to have coverage given the high base rates. There's only so much debt you can bear. So we're definitely not seeing reckless levels in any way, in terms of what we've seen in terms of loan-to-value. Spreads have come down, but on direct lending today are probably 500 over, still pretty good by historic standards.

顯然，倍數非常高。今天，在我們第一季的直接貸款中，平均貸款成數為 44%。當然，現在部分原因是由於基本利率較高，因此需要支付利息成本。你能承擔的債務就只有這麼多。因此，就貸款價值比而言，我們絕對不會看到任何魯莽的程度。利差已經下降，但今天的直接貸款可能超過 500，按照歷史標準仍然相當不錯。

Interestingly, liquid markets have tightened far further. So if you look at investment grade or high yield, we've seen much more movement there. So we still see this as a sector where the risk return for lending money is quite favorable. If you're earning 500 over a base rate today, that's 5.5 plus upfront fees, you're earning 11.5% on an unleveraged basis, if you put a little leverage better than that.

有趣的是，流動性市場進一步收緊。因此，如果你專注於投資等級或高收益，我們會看到更多的變化。因此，我們仍然認為這是一個貸款風險回報相當有利的行業。如果您今天在基本利率的基礎上賺取 500 美元，即 5.5 美元加上預付費用，那麼如果您使用比這更好的一點槓桿，您在無槓桿的基礎上賺取 11.5%。

So the risk-return to us still feels compelling. Some sponsors risk for the common equity, not the capital structure. So overall, we have not seen signs of excess. And there's pretty good discipline in the market, and that gives us a lot of confidence.

因此，風險回報對我們來說仍然很有吸引力。有些發起人為普通股而非資本結構承擔風險。所以總體來說，我們沒有看到過剩的跡象。市場有很好的紀律，這給了我們很大的信心。

Jon, I'll just chime in on that. Two things, one, to put a fine point on Jon's point about 44% loan-to-values. What that obviously means is because these are mostly sponsored transactions with new equity being invested, that 56% of the capital structure on a new deal is being put up with cash equity, junior to this debt from high-quality sponsors. So that is sort of another dimension too that we think the risk-reward here.

喬恩，我就插話一下。有兩件事，第一，要對喬恩關於貸款價值比 44% 的觀點進行精闢的闡述。這顯然意味著，因為這些交易大多是有新股權投資的贊助交易，新交易的資本結構中 56% 是由現金股權構成的，僅次於來自優質贊助商的債務。因此，這也是我們認為風險報酬的另一個維度。

And then on default rates. As I mentioned in my remarks, less than 40 basis points for our business in the first quarter. There is -- we are demonstrating -- because I think a couple of years ago. There were some concern in the marketplace about what would happen with the default rates for folks like us. There is differentiation, there is outperformance depending on the borrower selection and the individual private credit player. And so we're operating at a fraction, I think, of the overall market default rate, which is normalizing. So I think we feel really -- and that's while being a leader in deploying capital in private credit.

然後是違約率。正如我在發言中提到的，第一季我們的業務成長不到 40 個基點。我們正在展示這一點，因為我認為幾年前。市場上有人擔心像我們這樣的人的違約率會發生什麼。根據借款人的選擇和個人私人信貸機構的不同，存在差異化、表現優異。因此，我認為，我們的營運僅佔整個市場違約率的一小部分，而整個市場違約率正在正常化。所以我認為我們確實有這種感覺——而且是在成為私人信貸資本配置的領導者的同時。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

接下來我們將與瑞銀一起前往布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

Just 2 on real estate, one housekeeping and one sort of more forward-looking. Could you touch on the impact of the rate hedge in BREIT in the first quarter in April to date? And then more on the forward-looking side. Appreciate the comments on supply and real estate. But given that rates have actually started to back up and share loan rates are a little off the peak but not by much, what drives the confidence in real estate bottoming? Wouldn't we need the cap rates to move up as much as base rates or close to as much as base rates have moved up, in order to draw that demand into the market?

只有 2 個關於房地產、1 個家政和 1 個更具前瞻性的內容。您能否談談迄今為止 4 月第一季 BREIT 利率對沖的影響？然後是更多的前瞻性方面。感謝有關供應和房地產的評論。但考慮到利率實際上已經開始回升，而且股票貸款利率略低於峰值，但幅度不大，是什麼推動了房地產觸底反彈的信心呢？為了將需求吸引到市場中，我們是否不需要上限利率與基本利率一樣上升或接近基本利率上升的程度？

Brennan, first, just on the data question in terms of the impact of the swaps. It was about 1 point out of the 1.8% net performance for BREIT.

布倫南，首先，關於掉期影響的數據問題。 BREIT 的淨表現為 1.8%，僅佔 1 個百分點。

And then on cost of capital, certainly a rising 10-year, not helpful, but I think it's important to put it into context. As you noted, it's lower than it was in October, but also debt capital being so important. So if you went back to October, it was extremely difficult to borrow money. Spreads were much wider, and banks were very reluctant to lend in the space.

然後就資本成本而言，當然，十年來不斷上升，這沒有什麼幫助，但我認為將其放在背景中很重要。正如您所指出的，它比 10 月要低，但債務資本也非常​​重要。所以如果你回到10月份，借錢是極為困難的。利差大得多，銀行非常不願意在這個領域放款。

In the first quarter as I noted, we've seen a five-fold increase in CMBS issuance. So the fact that debt capital is more available and the cost is meaningfully lower because of the spread, not as much the base rates, that's a helpful sign. So it is more positive than it was 6 months ago. Backing up 10-year treasury as I noted, not helpful. But the fact that overall, it does feel to us at some point here, the Fed is going to bring rates down. There will be some downward pressure. That should be helpful. But the cost of capital overall coming down is helpful. And that's why we're seeing, even today, despite the backup in rates, more folks showing up to buy assets than certainly we saw 6 months ago.

正如我所指出的，第一季 CMBS 發行量增加了五倍。因此，債務資本更容易獲得，而且由於利差而不是基本利率，成本顯著降低，這是一個有用的跡象。所以它比 6 個月前更積極。正如我所指出的，支持十年期國庫券並沒有什麼幫助。但事實上，總體而言，我們確實在某個時候感覺到聯準會將降低利率。會有一定的下行壓力。這應該會有幫助。但資本成本總體下降是有幫助的。這就是為什麼即使在今天，儘管利率有所回升，但購買資產的人仍比 6 個月前多。

We'll go next to Bill Katz with TD Cowen.

接下來我們將與 TD Cowen 一起前往比爾·卡茨 (Bill Katz)。

Just coming back to the opportunity in global wealth management. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about where you're seeing the volume coming from, to the extent you get that kind of granularity from the distributors. And then secondly, just given the tremendous focus on many of your peers into the space, also wondering how you sort of see the competitive environment unfolding as we look ahead.

回到全球財富管理的機會。我想知道您是否可以談談您所看到的銷售來自哪裡，以及您從分銷商那裡獲得的這種粒度。其次，鑑於您的許多同行對該領域的巨大關注，也想知道您如何看待我們展望未來的競爭環境。

So Bill, we see demand pretty broad-based. Obviously, we have a lot of strength in the U.S. with the biggest distribution partners. We've been at this, as a reminder, for a very long time. We've got a lot of relationships with financial advisers and their underlying customers. The performance of our drawdown funds, the performance of BREIT, of BCRED, has created a lot of goodwill that we're able to tap into. And so I would say it's broad-based in the U.S.

比爾，我們看到需求相當廣泛。顯然，我們在美國擁有強大的實力，擁有最大的分銷合作夥伴。作為提醒，我們已經這樣做很久了。我們與財務顧問及其潛在客戶建立了許多關係。我們的提款基金、BREIT 和 BCRED 的表現為我們創造了許多商譽，我們可以利用這些商譽。所以我想說它在美國有廣泛的基礎。

We are seeing strength overseas as well. Japan is a market where we certainly have seen more openness to our products, and we've had success there. Historically, some of the markets more tied to China, Hong Kong, Singapore are a little slower today, but we've had strength in those markets over time also.

我們也看到了海外的實力。日本是一個我們對我們的產品更加開放的市場，我們在那裡取得了成功。從歷史上看，一些與中國、香港、新加坡關係密切的市場今天的發展速度要慢一些，但隨著時間的推移，我們在這些市場上也表現出了實力。

And Europe, I'd say, is an emerging market as is Canada. So I think it's a global story. It's still primarily U.S. but it's growing. And within the U.S., what's interesting is we're still -- if you look at the penetration of financial aid, still in the very early days. Really, a small percentage are allocating to alternatives. And we think that can broaden quite significantly as these products deliver for clients as they begin to recognize the benefit of alternatives trading some liquidity for higher returns.

我想說，歐洲和加拿大一樣都是新興市場。所以我認為這是一個全球性的故事。它仍然主要是美國，但正在增長。在美國，有趣的是，如果你看看財政援助的滲透率，我們仍然處於早期階段。事實上，一小部分人正在分配給替代品。我們認為，隨著這些產品為客戶提供服務，當他們開始認識到透過交易一些流動性以獲得更高回報的替代品的好處時，這種情況會顯著擴大。

So we think there's a lot of room to grow. And the fact that we have 300-plus people on Joan Solotar's team, we've got this very powerful brand, we've had strong performance, all of that, I think, bodes well for us and makes us a differentiated player in this space.

所以我們認為還有很大的成長空間。事實上，我們Joan Solotar 的團隊有300 多人，我們擁有這個非常強大的品牌，我們擁有強勁的業績，我認為所有這些對我們來說都是好兆頭，並使我們成為這個領域的差異化參與者空間。

We'll go next to Brian McKenna with Citizens JMP.

接下來我們將與 Citizens JMP 聯繫 Brian McKenna。

I believe you've recently hired a senior data exact to leverage AI across your private equity portfolios. So can you talk about your approach, leveraging data and AI across your portfolios and what that might mean for additional value creation over time? And then can you also talk about how you leverage data on the deployment front? I'm assuming a lot of the data you have across the entire platform gives you insight into emerging trends globally. And so how does all of this translate into where you ultimately invest?

我相信您最近聘請了一位高級數據專家來在您的私募股權投資組合中利用人工智慧。那麼您能否談談您的方法，在您的投資組合中利用數據和人工智慧，以及隨著時間的推移這對創造額外價值意味著什麼？然後您能否談談您如何利用部署方面的數據？我假設您在整個平台上擁有的大量數據可以讓您深入了解全球新興趨勢。那麼這一切如何轉化為您最終的投資方向呢？

So AI is obviously hugely important for our business, for the global economy. I would just frame this by saying, we set up our data science business back in 2015. We've got more than 50 people on that team today. We have focused historically on predictive AI, which is basically numbers in, numbers out. So you could look at a company and you could look at their pricing history, and you could do more sophisticated revenue management than human beings could do, similarly in terms of staffing. And we've been using that as a tool for investing for quite some time now, and we'll continue to do this. And we've been pushing it out to some of our portfolio companies.

因此，人工智慧顯然對我們的業務和全球經濟非常重要。我只想說，我們早在 2015 年就建立了資料科學業務。我們歷史上一直關注預測人工智慧，它基本上是數位輸入，數位輸出。因此，你可以查看一家公司，你可以查看他們的定價歷史，你可以進行比人類更複雜的收入管理，在人員配置方面也是如此。我們已經使用它作為投資工具已有相當長一段時間了，我們將繼續這樣做。我們一直在將其推廣給我們的一些投資組合公司。

I would point out also that Steve personally with his investments at MIT and Oxford has been a leader thinking about AI. And that has, I think, pushed the firm to try to do more in this space because we had more recognition something profound was happening here.

我還想指出的是，史蒂夫個人及其在麻省理工學院和牛津大學的投資一直是思考人工智慧的領導者。我認為，這促使公司嘗試在這個領域做更多的事情，因為我們更意識到這裡正在發生一些深刻的事情。

I would say on the generative AI front, it's still very early days, in terms of applications. The ability to take language and put that into the machine, produce language or videos, I think it will have a powerful impact, but that's going to take a bit of time. And what I think it will do most is impact customer engagement for many of our companies. I think it will also, on the content side, help in software development and media development. And we're working by hiring data scientists working with our teams. We hired a senior executive recently. But I'd still say on the generative side, it's early days.

我想說，在生成人工智慧方面，就應用而言還處於早期階段。將語言放入機器、生成語言或影片的能力，我認為這將產生巨大的影響，但這需要一些時間。我認為它最重要的是影響我們許多公司的客戶參與。我認為在內容方面它也將有助於軟體開發和媒體開發。我們正在聘請資料科學家與我們的團隊合作。我們最近聘請了一位高階主管。但我仍然想說，在生成方面，現在還處於早期階段。

Now on the investing overall. What we've tried to do is focus on the infrastructure around AI, and that is primarily data centers. And by going out there and investing in $50 billion of data centers that we own or have under construction and another $50 billion in development pipeline globally, which Steve talked about, that really is the infrastructure. We're also spending a lot of time on power, which is a key necessity to build these data centers.

現在談談整體投資。我們試圖做的是關注人工智慧的基礎設施，主要是資料中心。史蒂夫談到，透過走出去，投資我們擁有或正在建造的 500 億美元的資料中心，以及全球另外 500 億美元的開發管道，這才是真正的基礎設施。我們也花了大量時間在電力上，這是建立這些資料中心的關鍵必需品。

And then we've made a number of investments around cloud companies, contractors building these, the whole ecosystem. So as a firm, we're trying to spend a lot of time. It's early days for us. The biggest impact has been around the infrastructure. But we're working hard to find ways to help our companies be more competitive, and we're certainly trying to make our investment process better. So an area definitely worth focusing on.

然後我們圍繞雲端公司、建造這些公司的承包商以及整個生態系統進行了大量投資。因此，作為一家公司，我們試圖花費大量時間。對我們來說現在還為時過早。最大的影響是基礎設施。但我們正在努力尋找幫助我們的公司更具競爭力的方法，我們當然也在努力改善我們的投資流程。所以這是一個絕對值得關注的領域。

We'll go next to Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

接下來我們將請來自主研究中心的 Patrick Davitt。

So there's been increasing regulatory focus on the more illiquid stuff, the ABS that you and others are originating for insurance balance sheets and to what extent those should have a higher risk weighting. I know insurance regulators work very slow, but what are you hearing from your 18 big insurance clients on that issue? And are you seeing this concern factor into new business conversations with that channel at all?

因此，監管機構越來越關注流動性較差的資產，即您和其他人為保險資產負債表創建的 ABS，以及這些資產在多大程度上應具有更高的風險權重。我知道保險監理機構工作速度很慢，但您從 18 個大保險客戶那裡聽到了關於這個問題的什麼消息？您是否在與該管道的新業務對話中看到了這個擔憂因素？

So I think there's a lot of discussion around these areas. A lot of the focus has been around securitizations or synthetic securitizations, creating different ratings and a direct rating. A lot of the activities though, that we've been talking about here have been literally doing private assets investment grade. And very similar to what insurance companies have been doing in commercial mortgages and private placement debt for decades.

所以我認為圍繞著這些領域有很多討論。許多焦點都集中在證券化或合成證券化上，創造了不同的評級和直接評級。不過，我們在這裡討論的許多活動其實都是在進行私人資產投資等級的活動。這與保險公司幾十年來在商業抵押貸款和私募債務方面的做法非常相似。

What we're really doing is taking that model of senior, of what we believe safe debt on average A rated in infrastructure, in all forms of asset-based finance, in residential finance and putting that directly on insurance company balance sheets. And I think regulators and participants see that as generally a good thing because it's generating higher returns. There's a little less liquidity.

我們真正做的是採用高級模型，即我們認為在基礎設施、各種形式的資產融資、住宅融資中平均評級為 A 級的安全債務，並將其直接納入保險公司的資產負債表中。我認為監管機構和參與者認為這總體上是一件好事，因為它會產生更高的回報。流動性有點少。

Although I would point out when you look at things like ABS bonds, there's not a lot of liquidity as it is, but there is a little less liquidity. But the risk profile of the assets is very much in line, if not safer, than what our clients have done historically. So I think there's going to be more scrutiny.

雖然我會指出，當你看 ABS 債券之類的東西時，流動性並不多，但流動性有點少。但這些資產的風險狀況即使不是更安全，也與我們客戶歷史上的做法非常一致。所以我認為將會有更多的審查。

As you know, in the insurance space, we made a conscious choice. We're not an insurance company. We really see ourselves more like BlackRock or PIMCO, what they do for liquid assets for insurance companies. We're doing a similar dynamic for insurance companies and private assets. And we think what we're doing is very sound. It saves, it generates, on average, 200 basis points of higher return than comparably rated liquid assets. We think this is a good thing for policyholders. So we think there will be a lot of dialogue with regulators, but the activities we're focused on, we think will be well received over time.

如您所知，在保險領域，我們做出了有意識的選擇。我們不是保險公司。我們確實認為自己更像貝萊德或太平洋投資管理公司，他們為保險公司的流動資產所做的事情。我們正在為保險公司和私人資產採取類似的措施。我們認為我們正在做的事情非常合理。與同等評級的流動資產相比，它可以節省資金並產生平均 200 個基點的高回報。我們認為這對保單持有人來說是一件好事。因此，我們認為將會與監管機構進行大量對話，但我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們重點關注的活動將會受到好評。

With no additional question in the queue, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Tucker for any additional closing comments.

由於隊列中沒有其他問題，我想將電話轉回塔克先生以獲取任何其他結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today and look forward to following up after the call.

感謝大家今天加入我們，並期待在電話會議後跟進。