Blackstone Inc (BX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Blackstone Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Investor Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Blackstone 2023 年第四季和全年投資者電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.

這次，我想把會議交給股東關係主管韋斯頓‧塔克(Weston Tucker)。請繼續。

Great. Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to Blackstone's Fourth Quarter Conference Call. Joining today are Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer.

偉大的。謝謝，早安，歡迎參加 Blackstone 第四季電話會議。今天加入的還有董事長兼執行長史蒂夫‧施瓦茨曼 (Steve Schwarzman)；喬恩‧格雷，總裁兼營運長；和財務長 Michael Chae。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. We expect to file our 10-K report later next month.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和幻燈片演示，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。我們預計下個月稍後提交 10-K 報告。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could affect results, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K. We'll also refer to non-GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the shareholders page of our website.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述具有不確定性，可能與實際結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何責任。有關可能影響結果的一些因素的討論，請參閱 10-K 的風險因素部分。我們也會參考非公認會計準則衡量標準，您可以在我們網站股東頁面的新聞稿中找到調節表。

Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund. This audio cast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成任何 Blackstone 基金的出售要約或購買要約。此音訊廣播是 Blackstone 受版權保護的資料，未經同意不得複製。

Quickly on results. We reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $109 million. Distributable earnings were $1.4 billion or $1.11 per common share, and we declared a dividend of $0.94, which will be paid to holders of record as of February 5.

快速得出結果。我們公佈的本季 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.09 億美元。可分配收益為 14 億美元，即每股普通股 1.11 美元，我們宣布派發股息 0.94 美元，將支付給截至 2 月 5 日在冊的股東。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

這樣，我就把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Blackstone reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2023, including our highest distributable earnings in 6 quarters, which capped a volatile year for global markets.

早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。 Blackstone 公佈了 2023 年第四季度的強勁業績，包括 6 個季度以來最高的可分配收益，這為全球市場動蕩的一年畫上了句號。

Most major equity indices rebounded from significant declines in 2022, but with wide intrayear swings driven by historic movements in treasury yields, economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability. Against this backdrop, Blackstone generated steady fee-related earnings of $4.3 billion for the year, underpinning healthy distributable earnings of $5.1 billion.

大多數主要股指從 2022 年的大幅下跌中反彈，但由於國債殖利率的歷史性變動、經濟不確定性和地緣政治不穩定，年內出現了大幅波動。在此背景下，Blackstone 全年實現了 43 億美元的穩定費用相關收益，支撐了 51 億美元的健康可分配收益。

Performance revenues were down as expected in the context of limited realizations as we choose to sell less in unfavorable markets. We've designed the firm to provide resiliency in times of stress and capture the upside as markets recover.

由於我們選擇在不利的市場中減少銷售，因此在實現有限的情況下，業績收入按預期下降。我們設計公司的目的是在壓力時期提供彈性，並在市場復甦時抓住上漲空間。

In the fourth quarter, as bond yields declined, markets rallied. We executed several realizations driving strong sequential growth in DE to $1.4 billion. 2023 is also a year of important milestones for Blackstone. We were the first alternative manager to surpass $1 trillion of assets under management.

第四季度，隨著債券殖利率下降，市場反彈。我們實現了多項成果，推動 DE 實現強勁連續成長，達到 14 億美元。 2023 年對黑石來說也是具有重要里程碑意義的一年。我們是第一家管理資產超過 1 兆美元的另類投資管理公司。

We were also the first in our sector to be added to the S&P 500 Index, positioning our stock to be even more widely owned. We are pleased that BX shares ranked in the top 20 best performing out of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index last year.

我們也是業界第一家被納入標準普爾 500 指數的公司，這使得我們的股票擁有更廣泛的持有者。我們很高興 BX 股票去年在標準普爾 500 指數 500 隻股票中名列前 20 名。

Blackstone is now the 55th largest U.S. public company by market cap, exceeding the market value of all other asset managers. And in December, we released our sixth annual holiday video which has received over 8 million views, which may not say something about our limited acting skills, but it certainly says something about the Blackstone brand.

以市值計算，黑石目前是美國第 55 大上市公司，超過所有其他資產管理公司的市值。 12 月，我們發布了第六個年度假日視頻，觀看次數已超過 800 萬，這可能並不能說明我們演技有限，但它確實說明了 Blackstone 品牌。

Our funds appreciated overall in 2023, highlighted by strength in credit, infrastructure, corporate private equity and life sciences, even as we weathered a difficult environment for real estate.

儘管我們經歷了艱難的房地產環境，但我們的基金在 2023 年總體升值，信貸、基礎設施、企業私募股權和生命科學的實力凸顯。

Stepping back, over the last 2 years, the campaign by central banks to control inflation has resulted in muted returns for most traditional asset classes. The S&P 500 returned only 3% over 2 years, while the media and U.S. stock actually declined 9%, and the REIT index was down 14%. The traditional 60-40 portfolio lost value, down 3%.

退一步來說，在過去的兩年裡，央行控制通膨的行動導致大多數傳統資產類別的回報微弱。標準普爾 500 指數兩年間回報率僅 3%，而媒體和美國股市實際上下跌了 9%，REIT 指數下跌了 14%。傳統的 60-40 投資組合失去了價值，下跌了 3%。

In contrast, Blackstone's flagship strategies generated positive appreciation over this period and meaningfully outperformed the relevant public indices. For example, our corporate private equity funds appreciated 12% over the past 2 years compared to the S&P, up 3%. That's outperformance of 9%. Our real estate equity strategies appreciated 1% to 6% compared to negative 14% for public REITs. So that's a dramatic outperformance.

相較之下，黑石集團的旗艦策略在此期間產生了積極的升值，並且明顯優於相關公開指數。例如，我們的企業私募股權基金在過去兩年升值了 12%，而標準普爾指數則上漲了 3%。表現優於 9%。我們的房地產股權策略升值了 1% 至 6%，而公共 REIT 則升值了 14%。所以這是一個戲劇性的優異表現。

In credit, our private credit strategies appreciated 25% gross while the high-yield index was up only 2%. [AM] generated a 13% gross return for the BPS Composite over the past 2 years, a remarkable achievement in liquid markets and well ahead of the hedge fund index. It actually was down 1%. That's our performance of 12%.

在信貸方面，我們的私人信貸策略總額增加了 25%，而高收益指數僅成長了 2%。 [AM] 過去 2 年為 BPS 綜合指數帶來了 13% 的總回報率，這在流動性市場中是一項了不起的成就，遠遠領先於對沖基金指數。實際上下降了1%。這就是我們 12% 的表現。

And finally, our infrastructure business appreciated 33% over the past 2 years compared to only a 7% return for the S&P Infrastructure Index. That's an outperformance of 26%. This outstanding performance is one of the reasons we've been able to build this platform from 0 6 years ago to over $40 billion today.

最後，我們的基礎設施業務在過去 2 年裡增值了 33%，而標準普爾基礎設施指數的回報率僅為 7%。表現優於 26%。這種出色的表現是我們能夠將這個平台從 6 年前的 0 打造到今天超過 400 億美元的原因之一。

Overall, the ability to outperform market indices over long periods of time is why the alternatives asset class and Blackstone in particular, continue to have significant momentum. Our limited partners have benefited from the exceptional balance of the firm and the careful way we've positioned their capital in a volatile world.

整體而言，長期跑贏市場指數的能力是另類資產類別（尤其是黑石）持續保持強勁勢頭的原因。我們的有限合夥人受益於公司的卓越平衡以及我們在動盪的世界中謹慎配置其資本的方式。

One of the key advantages that comes from our leading scale is having more, better and richer private data which informs how we invest. And Jon referred to this on television today.

我們領先規模帶來的關鍵優勢之一是擁有更多、更好、更豐富的私人數據，為我們的投資方式提供資訊。喬恩今天在電視上提到了這一點。

Our portfolio consists of over 230 companies. More than 12,000 real estate assets and one of the largest credit businesses in the world. We marshal real-time data across these holdings to develop macro insights that we then share across all of our businesses, allowing the firm to adapt quickly to changing conditions.

我們的投資組合由 230 多家公司組成。擁有超過 12,000 項房地產資產和全球最大的信貸業務之一。我們整理這些資產的即時數據，以開發宏觀見解，然後在所有業務中共享這些見解，使公司能夠快速適應不斷變化的環境。

We believe our access to information exceeds that of our competitors, and it positions the firm very well as we move towards a world driven by artificial intelligence, an area on which we are already very focused. This process of aggregating data and information helps us identify trends early and often, leads us to differentiated views on what's happening around the world.

我們相信，我們對資訊的獲取能力超過了競爭對手，並且在我們邁向人工智慧驅動的世界（我們已經非常關注的領域）的過程中，這使公司處於非常有利的地位。這種聚合數據和資訊的過程有助於我們儘早並經常識別趨勢，使我們對世界各地正在發生的事情產生不同的看法。

In early '21, for example, it led us to the conclusion that inflation would be higher and more pervasive than the consensus expectation, and we've positioned the firm accordingly. We then started speaking publicly that inflation was moderating as early as October 2022 and with increasing frequency in 2023.

例如，在 21 世紀初期，我們得出這樣的結論：通貨膨脹將比普遍預期更高、更普遍，因此我們對公司進行了相應的定位。然後，我們開始公開表示，通膨早在 2022 年 10 月就開始放緩，並在 2023 年更加頻繁。

Data from our portfolio companies showed that input cost inflation was rapidly declining. We persisted in this view even when the 10-year treasury yield spiked to a 16-year high of 5% in October. As we all know, the 10 years subsequently declined over 100 basis points into year-end. The opposite of what many market participants believed would happen.

我們投資組合公司的數據顯示，投入成本通膨正在快速下降。即使 10 月 10 年期公債殖利率飆升至 5% 的 16 年高點，我們仍堅持這一觀點。眾所周知，10年期到年底下跌了100多個基點。與許多市場參與者認為會發生的情況相反。

Our access to information is an enduring competitive advantage here at Blackstone, and this advantage grows as we grow larger. As we move into 2024, we note that the rise in investor confidence around the shift from a restrictive monetary policy to one that is more accommodating.

我們對資訊的取得是 Blackstone 持久的競爭優勢，而這種優勢隨著我們規模的擴大而不斷增強。進入 2024 年，我們注意到，隨著從限制性貨幣政策轉向更為寬鬆的貨幣政策，投資者信心有所增強。

We now believe CPI is running below the Fed's 2% target after adjusting the reported numbers for shelter costs, which lagged what we've observed on the ground as one of the largest investors in this area. At the same time, the U.S. economy has remained quite strong. Unemployment is nearly unchanged since the start of the Fed's tightening cycle. Most consumer segments are healthy, but the balance sheets are strong and credit fundamentals remain solid.

我們現在認為，在調整報告的住房成本數據後，消費者物價指數 (CPI) 低於聯準會 2% 的目標，這落後於我們作為該領域最大投資者之一的實地觀察。與此同時，美國經濟仍然相當強勁。自從聯準會緊縮週期開始以來，失業率幾乎沒有變化。大多數消費領域都很健康，但資產負債表強勁，信貸基本面依然穩固。

In our own portfolio, our companies are showing strong top line performance overall as well as earnings growth as cost pressures have eased. We see a resilient economy albeit one that is decelerating. What we're seeing is consistent with the soft planning.

在我們自己的投資組合中，隨著成本壓力的緩解，我們的公司整體表現出強勁的營收業績以及獲利成長。我們看到了一個有彈性的經濟，儘管經濟正在減速。我們所看到的與軟規劃是一致的。

Overall, with the cost of capital moving lower, market confidence returning, we believe we're entering a supportive environment for our business. While changing market conditions take time to fully translate to our financial results, the fourth quarter reflected an acceleration in key forward indicators, including both fundraising and deployment. We're planting seeds and expanding invested capital in the ground. And with nearly $200 billion of dry powder, our purchasing power for investments, exceeds almost any other company in the world. I believe that we'll look back at 2023 as the cyclical bottom for our firm.

總體而言，隨著資本成本下降、市場信心恢復，我們相信我們正在進入一個對我們的業務有利的環境。雖然不斷變化的市場狀況需要時間才能完全轉化為我們的財務業績，但第四季度反映出關鍵前瞻性指標（包括籌款和部署）的加速。我們正在播種並擴大投資。我們擁有近 2000 億美元的乾粉，投資購買力幾乎超過世界上任何其他公司。我相信，我們將把 2023 年視為我們公司的周期性底部。

Looking forward, Blackstone is exceptionally well positioned to navigate the road ahead. Our investors can count on the dedication of our people and the enduring nature of our culture, characterized by excellence, achievement, teamwork, hard work and the highest standards of ethics and integrity. Our employees embody these values. And they approach their work every day with the passion for what they do and an unwavering commitment to serving our clients. We've created an environment in the firm that is defined by meritocracy, and a quality of opportunity. We do not discriminate against anyone based on race, ethnic background, religious beliefs, gender or sexual orientation. We are proud of these values. Our people want to create and build their careers at Blackstone, and there is a huge demand to work at the firm.

展望未來，黑石處於非常有利的位置，可以引領未來的道路。我們的投資者可以信賴員工的奉獻精神和我們持久的文化，其特點是卓越、成就、團隊合作、努力工作以及最高的道德和誠信標準。我們的員工體現了這些價值觀。他們每天都對工作充滿熱情，並堅定不移地致力於為客戶服務。我們在公司創造了一個以精英管理和機會品質為特徵的環境。我們不會因種族、民族背景、宗教信仰、性別或性取向而歧視任何人。我們為這些價值觀感到自豪。我們的員工希望在 Blackstone 創造和發展自己的職業生涯，並且對在該公司工作有著巨大的需求。

We had 62,000 unique applicants for 169 positions in the latest analyst class, reflecting an acceptance rate of 0.27% to 1%, a dramatic change from when we started the firm 38 years ago, when frankly, anyone wanted to join us. This provides the foundation for the next generation of remarkable talent and will drive our growth for the foreseeable future.

我們有62,000 名獨立申請者申請了最新一期分析師類別的169 個職位，錄取率為0.27% 至1%，這與38 年前我們創辦公司時相比發生了巨大變化，當時坦率地說，每個人都想加入我們。這為下一代傑出人才奠定了基礎，並將在可預見的未來推動我們的發展。

Blackstone is an extraordinary place. and our prospects are very strong. I am highly enthusiastic about what we will accomplish for our shareholders in 2024.

黑石是一個非凡的地方。我們的前景非常廣闊。我對 2024 年我們將為股東實現的目標充滿熱情。

And with that, I'll throw the ball over to Jon?

然後我就把球傳給喬恩？

I'm happy to catch it. Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I'm proud of how we've navigated the challenging markets of the past few years by focusing on the right sectors. We believe we're now heading into a better environment, as Steve noted, with inflation and cost of capital headwinds moderating.

我很高興能抓住它。謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。我為我們在過去幾年中透過專注於正確的領域來駕馭充滿挑戰的市場而感到自豪。正如史蒂夫指出的那樣，我們相信我們現在正在進入一個更好的環境，通貨膨脹和資本成本的不利因素正在減弱。

This backdrop is leading to the emergence of 3 powerful dynamics across our business. First, we believe that real estate values are bottoming. Second, our momentum in the private wealth channel is building. And third, investment activity has picked up meaningfully across the firm, which is a key element of creating future value.

這一背景導致我們整個業務出現了 3 個強大的動力。首先，我們認為房地產價值正在觸底。第二，私人財富管道的勢頭正在增強。第三，整個公司的投資活動顯著增加，這是創造未來價值的關鍵要素。

I'll discuss each of these dynamics in more detail. First, as I said, we believe values in commercial real estate are bottoming. This doesn't mean there won't be more troubled real estate investments to come in the market, particularly in the office sector, which were set up during a period when borrowing costs were much lower nor does it mean we won't see a slowing in fundamentals in certain sectors with excess near-term supply.

我將更詳細地討論每一個動態。首先，正如我所說，我們認為商業房地產的價值正在觸底。這並不意味著市場上不會出現更多陷入困境的房地產投資，特別是在辦公大樓領域，這些投資是在藉貸成本低得多的時期建立的，也不意味著我們不會看到某些近期供應過剩的產業基本面放緩。

What it does mean is that the cost of capital appears to have peaked as borrowing spreads have begun to tighten and the Fed is no longer raising rates, but likely cutting them in 2024. Also importantly, new construction starts have started to move down sharply in commercial real estate, which is quite positive for long-term values. While it will take time, we can see the pillars of a real estate recovery coming into place. We are, of course, not waiting for the all-clear sign and believe the best investments are made during times of uncertainty.

這意味著，隨著借貸利差開始收緊，聯準會不再升息，但可能會在 2024 年降息，資本成本似乎已見頂。同樣重要的是，2024 年新開工率已開始大幅下降。商業地產，這對長期價值相當正面。雖然這需要時間，但我們可以看到房地產復甦的支柱正在形成。當然，我們不會等待一切明確的訊號，並相信最好的投資是在不確定的時期進行的。

We announced 3 major real estate transactions in the past 2 months, the $3.5 billion take-private of Tricon Residential, a partnership with Digital Realty to develop $7 billion of data centers and a joint venture with the FDIC to acquire a 20% stake in a $17 billion first mortgage portfolio from the former Signature Bank.

我們在過去 2 個月內宣布了 3 筆重大房地產交易：以 35 億美元私有化 Tricon Residential、與 Digital Realty 合作開發 70 億美元的數據中心以及與 FDIC 成立合資企業收購一家公司 20% 的股份。來自前Signature Bank 的170 億美元第一抵押貸款組合。

We think this is just the start, as Blackstone Real Estate has $65 billion of dry powder to invest into this dislocated market. Meanwhile, in our existing portfolio, we've absorbed the increase in interest rates and cash flows are growing or stable in most areas. We continue to see robust fundamentals in logistics, student housing and data centers which together comprise the majority of our real estate equity portfolio.

我們認為這只是一個開始，因為 Blackstone Real Estate 擁有 650 億美元的資金來投資這個錯位的市場。同時，在我們現有的投資組合中，我們已經吸收了利率的上升，大多數領域的現金流都在成長或穩定。我們繼續看到物流、學生宿舍和資料中心的強勁基本面，這些領域共同構成了我們房地產股票投資組合的大部分。

That said, in Q4, the value of our funds declined by 4% to 4.5%, primarily relating to 2 factors. First, the single largest driver was the decline in the unrealized value of our interest rate hedges as treasury yields fell. We put these structures in place to fix our financing costs ahead of the rise in interest rates, and they have generated significant value.

也就是說，在第四季度，我們的基金價值下降了 4% 至 4.5%，主要與兩個因素有關。首先，最大的單一驅動因素是隨著國債殖利率下降，我們的利率對沖未實現價值下降。我們建立這些結構是為了在利率上升之前解決我們的融資成本，它們已經產生了巨大的價值。

Second, in our life sciences office and U.S. multifamily holdings, near-term performance has decelerated as new supply works its way through the system. The residual effect of construction undertaken in a low rate environment. The good news is that new supply in these sectors and for virtually all other types of real estate is declining materially, as I mentioned.

其次，在我們的生命科學辦公室和美國多戶家庭控股中，隨著新供應通過系統，近期表現放緩。在低利率環境下進行的建設的殘餘影響。好消息是，正如我所提到的，這些行業以及幾乎所有其他類型的房地產的新增供應都在大幅下降。

We believe that with our exceptional portfolio positioning in large-scale dry powder, our real estate business will emerge from this cycle even stronger than before. Outside of real estate, our other businesses are demonstrating resiliency and fundamental strength.

我們相信，憑藉我們在大規模乾粉領域的卓越投資組合定位，我們的房地產業務將在這個週期中變得比以前更強大。除了房地產之外，我們的其他業務也展現了彈性和基本實力。

Our credit and insurance teams had a remarkable year in 2023, with gross returns of 16.4% in the private credit strategies and 13% in liquid credit. These are extraordinary results for a performing credit business. The default rate across our nearly 2,000 noninvestment-grade credits is only 30 basis points over the last 12 months.

我們的信貸和保險團隊在 2023 年度過了非凡的一年，私人信貸策略的總回報率為 16.4%，流動信貸的總回報率為 13%。對於表現良好的信貸業務來說，這些都是非凡的成果。過去 12 個月，我們有近 2,000 個非投資等級信貸的違約率僅 30 個基點。

And in our investment-grade focused business, we placed or originated $30 billion of a quality credits on average in 2023 for our major insurance clients. which generated 190 basis points of excess spread compared to comparably rated liquid credits.

在我們以投資等級為重點的業務中，到 2023 年，我們為主要保險客戶平均發放或發放了 300 億美元的優質信貸。與同等評級的流動信貸相比，產生了 190 個基點的超額利差。

In corporate private equity, our operating company's overall reported healthy revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 7% year-over-year, along with margin strength. On the inflation front, wage growth continued to moderate and for the first time in 2.5 years, the majority of our surveyed companies are not finding it challenging to hire workers.

在企業私募股權方面，我們的營運公司第四季整體營收年增 7%，利潤率強勁。在通貨膨脹方面，薪資成長持續放緩，2.5 年來首次，我們接受調查的大多數公司都沒有發現僱用工人具有挑戰性。

And finally, for BAAM, since the start of 2021, when we brought in Joe Dowling to lead the business, the BPS Composite has been up every quarter, outperforming the 60-40 portfolio by approximately 1,200 basis points.

最後，對於 BAAM 來說，自 2021 年初我們聘請 Joe Dowling 領導業務以來，BPS 綜合指數每季都在上漲，比 60-40 投資組合高出約 1,200 個基點。

Moving to the second key dynamic emerging in our business, our momentum in private wealth. Blackstone has been serving this channel with a dedicated organization for 13 years, and we are the clear market leader with nearly $240 billion of AUM.

轉向我們業務中出現的第二個關鍵動力，即我們在私人財富方面的勢頭。 Blackstone 已透過專門的組織為該管道提供服務 13 年，我們是無可爭議的市場領導者，擁有近 2,400 億美元的資產管理規模。

We built enormous trust with our investors by delivering outstanding long-term performance, including 11% net returns annually from BREIT's largest share class and 10% for BCRED. We raised nearly $5 billion in the channel in Q4, including $3.6 billion for our perpetual vehicles. Subscriptions for perpetuals accelerated to $2.7 billion on January 2, reflecting the best month of fundraising from individual investors since June 2022.

透過提供出色的長期業績，我們與投資者建立了巨大的信任，其中 BREIT 最大股票類別的年淨回報率為 11%，BCRED 的年淨回報率為 10%。第四季我們透過該管道籌集了近 50 億美元，其中 36 億美元用於我們的永久車輛。 1 月 2 日，永續債券的認購量加速至 27 億美元，這是自 2022 年 6 月以來個人投資者融資最好的一個月。

BCRED had its best month since May 2022, raising $1.1 billion in January, and our new private equity vehicle, BXPE, raised $1.3 billion in January, which we believe is the largest ever first close of its kind. BXPE will leverage the firm's full breadth of investment capabilities in private equity, including buyout, secondaries, tactical opportunities, life sciences growth and other opportunistic strategies.

BCRED 經歷了自2022 年5 月以來最好的一個月，1 月份籌集了11 億美元，而我們的新私募股權工具BXPE 在1 月份籌集了13 億美元，我們認為這是有史以​​來規模最大的此類首次交割。 BXPE 將利用該公司在私募股權領域的全面投資能力，包括收購、二級市場、戰術機會、生命科學成長和其他機會主義策略。

At the same time, BREIT has weathered the storm in real estate markets and December repurchase requests were down over 50% from Q3 and down 80% from last January's peak. If current trends continue, we expect to be out of proration this quarter.

與此同時，BREIT 經受住了房地產市場的風暴，12 月的回購請求較第三季下降了 50% 以上，較去年 1 月的峰值下降了 80%。如果目前的趨勢持續下去，我們預計本季將不再按比例分配。

BREIT's semi-liquid structure has worked as design since launching the vehicle 7 years ago, by providing liquidity while protecting performance. In 6 of those years, redeeming investors were fulfilled immediately. Over the past year, it took a little over 4 months on average to be substantially redeemed.

自 7 年前推出該工具以來，BREIT 的半流動結構一直在設計中發揮作用，在提供流動性的同時保護性能。其中的六年，投資者的贖回立即兌現了。過去一年，平均需要4個多月的時間才能大幅贖回。

We believe investors experience of receiving double the public REIT market over the past 7 years with this semi-liquid structure is proof of concept. We continue to be optimistic about our prospects in the vast and underpenetrated private wealth channel, given our performance, the investment we've made in distribution and our highly differentiated brand.

我們相信，投資者在過去 7 年中透過這種半流動結構獲得雙倍公共 REIT 市場收益的經驗證明了這個概念。鑑於我們的業績、我們在分銷方面的投資以及我們高度差異化的品牌，我們繼續對廣闊且滲透不足的私人財富管道的前景感到樂觀。

In addition to private wealth, we also have very strong momentum in the insurance channel. Our AUM grew 20% year-over-year to $192 billion and we have clear line of sight to $250 billion over the next several years with existing clients alone. We expect to benefit from multiple engines of growth as these clients execute pension risk transfers, additional annuity sales, new insurance block deals and separate accounts for sector-specific lending.

除了私人財富之外，我們在保險管道也有非常強勁的勢頭。我們的 AUM 年成長 20%，達到 1,920 億美元，我們的目標是在未來幾年內僅現有客戶就達到 2,500 億美元。隨著這些客戶執行退休金風險轉移、額外年金銷售、新的保險大宗交易和針對特定行業貸款的獨立帳戶，我們預計將從多個成長引擎中受益。

Turning to the third key dynamic the firm's investment activity is accelerating. Following a choppy year, we deployed $31 billion in the fourth quarter, up 2.5x from Q3 and committed $15 billion to pending transactions. We continue to emphasize key thematic areas, including digital infrastructure, enterprise software and energy transition.

轉向第三個關鍵動力，該公司的投資活動正在加速。經過動盪的一年，我們在第四季度部署了 310 億美元，比第三季成長 2.5 倍，並承諾將 150 億美元用於待處理交易。我們繼續強調關鍵主題領域，包括數位基礎設施、企業軟體和能源轉型。

In private equity, we're privatizing 2 leading digital marketplaces, including Adevinta in Europe and Rover, my family's favorite in the pet space. We also committed to acquire an energy services software firm in the U.S. and an online payments business in Japan.

在私募股權領域，我們正在對兩個領先的數位市場進行私有化，包括歐洲的 Adevinta 和我家人在寵物領域最喜歡的 Rover。我們也承諾收購美國的一家能源服務軟體公司和日本的一家線上支付業務。

In credit, borrower demand is multiples of supply today, and deployment in our credit, insurance and real estate credit businesses more than tripled in Q4 compared to the third quarter to $21 billion. And we've also been providing creatively structured capital solutions in tac-ops, secondaries and BAAM. As Steve highlighted, we're planting seeds for future realizations at a favorable moment.

在信貸方面，借款人的需求是當今供應的數倍，第四季度我們信貸、保險和房地產信貸業務的部署與第三季相比增加了兩倍多，達到 210 億美元。我們也一直在 tac-ops、二級市場和 BAAM 領域提供創意十足的結構化資本解決方案。正如史蒂夫所強調的，我們正在一個有利的時刻為未來的實現播下種子。

In closing, we're optimistic on the path ahead with multiple powerful dynamics unfolding in our business. Their recovery will not be a straight line, but as always, our brand and track record will continue to drive us forward. and our shareholders stand to benefit from the firm's substantial embedded earnings power over time.

最後，我們對未來的道路持樂觀態度，我們的業務呈現出多種強大的動力。他們的復甦不會是一條直線，但一如既往，我們的品牌和業績記錄將繼續推動我們前進。隨著時間的推移，我們的股東將從公司強大的內在獲利能力中受益。

And with that, I will turn things over to Michael Chae.

這樣，我就把事情交給 Michael Chae。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. The firm delivered resilient performance in 2023. And as we move forward beyond what we believe was a cyclical trough for key business lines, we are well positioned.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。該公司在 2023 年實現了富有彈性的業績。隨著我們超越我們認為的關鍵業務線的周期性低谷，我們處於有利地位。

I'll first review financial results and then we'll discuss the key elements of the forward outlook. Starting with results. Total AUM increased 7% year-over-year to new record levels, led by robust strength in credit and insurance. Total inflows reached nearly $150 billion for the full year, the third best in our history despite the challenging fundraising environment, highlighting the firm's expansive breadth of strategies.

我將首先回顧財務業績，然後我們將討論前瞻性展望的關鍵要素。從結果開始。在信貸和保險業務強勁的帶動下，資產管理規模總額年增 7%，達到新紀錄水準。儘管融資環境充滿挑戰，全年總流入額仍達到近 1,500 億美元，在我們歷史上排名第三，凸顯了該公司策略的廣泛性。

Fee earning AUM increased 6% year-over-year, while base management fees rose 7% to a record $6.5 billion. Q4 represented the 56th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in base management fees at the firm.

收費資產管理規模年增 6%，基本管理費成長 7%，達到創紀錄的 65 億美元。第四季是該公司基本管理費連續第 56 季年增。

Fee related earnings were $4.3 billion for the year or $3.58 per share, stable with the prior year, underpinned by the growth in management fees, along with continued margin expansion, notwithstanding a decline in fee-related performance revenues.

儘管與費用相關的業績收入下降，但受管理費成長和利潤率持續擴張的支撐，全年費用相關收益為 43 億美元，即每股 3.58 美元，與上年持平。

FRE margin expanded 75 basis points to 57.8% for the full year, the highest level ever. Fee-related performance revenues were $859 million for the year, with a lower contribution from real estate, partly offset by a 51% year-over-year increase in these revenues from our direct lending business as it continues to grow in scale and impact to the firm's financials. Distributable earnings were $5.1 billion in 2023 or $3.95 per common share.

全年FRE利潤率擴大75個基點至57.8%，創歷史最高水準。本年度與費用相關的績效收入為 8.59 億美元，其中房地產貢獻較低，但部分被我們的直接貸款業務收入同比增長 51% 所抵消，因為該業務的規模和影響力持續增長。公司的財務狀況。 2023 年可分配盈餘為 51 億美元，即每股普通股 3.95 美元。

While FRE was a balance to earnings throughout the year, the shape of the year was driven by our sales activity. Net realizations were muted in the first 3 quarters as we remained highly selective amid the volatile backdrop for broader markets and asset values.

雖然 FRE 全年盈利保持平衡，但全年的表現是由我們的銷售活動所驅動的。前三個季度的淨變現水準較低，因為我們在大市場和資產價值波動的背景下仍然保持高度選擇性。

In the fourth quarter, we took advantage of more favorable conditions to execute the sales of public stock across multiple holdings, along with a number of other realizations.

在第四季度，我們利用更有利的條件，出售了多個持股的公開股票，並實現了許多其他目標。

In addition, BAAM crystallizes incentive fees for most of its open-ended strategies annually in Q4, and the segment's performance revenues increased 43% year-over-year, commensurate with its strong overall 2023 investment performance.

此外，BAAM 在第四季度每年為其大部分開放式策略制定激勵費用，該部門的業績收入年增 43%，與其強勁的 2023 年整體投資業績相稱。

In total, net realizations for the firm were $425 million in the fourth quarter, up 16% year-over-year and up 64% sequentially from Q3. The growth in net realizations lifted total distributed earnings to $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter, the highest level in 6 quarters, as Steve highlighted, or $1.11 per common share.

總體而言，該公司第四季的淨實現額為 4.25 億美元，年增 16%，季增 64%。正如史蒂夫所強調的那樣，淨變現的成長將第四季度的總分配收益提升至 14 億美元，為 6 個季度以來的最高水平，即每股普通股 1.11 美元。

Moving to the outlook. The firm is moving forward with strong underlying momentum across multiple drivers of growth. First, in our drawdown fund business, we've raised over 80% of our $150 billion target for the most recent vintage of flagships, but less than half was earning management fees as of year-end. We expect this to increase to the substantial majority earning management fees by the latter part of 2024.

轉向展望。該公司正以跨越多個成長驅動因素的強勁潛在動力向前發展。首先，在我們的提款基金業務中，我們已經籌集了最近一期旗艦產品 1500 億美元目標的 80% 以上，但截至年底，只有不到一半能夠賺取管理費。我們預計到 2024 年下半年，這一比例將增加到大部分管理費收入。

We recently launched the investment period for our European real estate vehicle. And over the coming quarters, we expect to activate our flagships in corporate private equity, PE energy transition, growth equity, infrastructure secondaries and by early next year, GP stakes in life sciences. These funds will earn fees following their respective fee holidays.

我們最近啟動了歐洲房地產工具的投資期。在未來幾個季度，我們預計將啟動我們在企業私募股權、私募股權能源轉型、成長股權、基礎設施二級市場的旗艦業務，並在明年初啟動生命科學領域的普通合夥人股權。這些基金將在各自的費用假期後賺取費用。

We expect to activate our corporate private equity flagship in the near term, which has raised $18 billion to date towards a target of at least $20 billion followed by a 4-month fee holiday.

我們預計將在短期內啟動我們的企業私募股權旗艦產品，該旗艦產品迄今已籌集 180 億美元，目標是至少 200 億美元，然後享受 4 個月的費用減免期。

At the same time, we are moving towards the next vintage of fundraising for multiple strategies, including the near-term launch of fundraising for our fifth private credit opportunistic strategy, targeting $10 billion.

同時，我們正在邁向下一階段的多種策略性融資，包括近期啟動的第五個私人信貸機會主義策略融資，目標為 100 億美元。

Second, our perpetual capital platform has continued to expand today comprising 44% of the firm's fee-earning AUM. Key drivers of recent growth include BCRED and our infrastructure platform, which grew fee-earning AUM by 26% and 21% in 2023, respectively.

其次，我們的永久資本平台今天持續擴大，占公司收費資產管理規模的 44%。近期成長的主要驅動力包括 BCRED 和我們的基礎設施平台，其收費資產管理規模在 2023 年分別成長了 26% 和 21%。

The co-mingled VIP infrastructure vehicle has achieved 15% net returns annually since inception, and its next scheduled crystallization of fee-related performance revenues will occur in the fourth quarter of this year with respect to 3 years of gains.

自成立以來，混合 VIP 基礎設施工具每年實現了 15% 的淨回報率，其下一次預定的與費用相關的業績收入結晶將在今年第四季度實現，相對於 3 年的收益。

Third, in the insurance channel, AUM has reached $192 billion, up 20% year-over-year, as Jon noted, driven principally by our 4 major clients, and we anticipate substantial inflows from them going forward underpinning strong growth in fee revenues and FRE in this channel.

第三，在保險管道，正如Jon 指出的那樣，AUM 已達到1,920 億美元，同比增長20%，這主要是由我們的4 個主要客戶推動的，我們預計未來他們將有大量資金流入，支撐費用收入和收入的強勁增長。此頻道中的 FRE。

Finally, with respect to realizations, we are positioned for an eventual acceleration in realizations in the context of more supportive markets, although it will take time to build the pipeline. Performance revenue eligible AUM in the ground is $505 billion, up 12% over the past 2 years despite volatile markets and up over 70% in 3 years.

最後，關於實現，我們的定位是在更具支持性的市場背景下最終加速實現，儘管建立管道需要時間。儘管市場波動，但符合績效收入的實際資產管理規模為 5,050 億美元，在過去 2 年中增長了 12%，在 3 年內增長了 70% 以上。

We hold a large-scale, high-quality portfolio, which is well diversified across asset classes, regions and vintages. And net accrued performance revenue on the balance sheet stands at $5.8 billion.

我們擁有大規模、高品質的投資組合，在不同資產類別、地區和年份之間實現了多元化。資產負債表上的淨應計績效收入為 58 億美元。

The firm's embedded performance-related earnings power is significant. As always, our long-term capital affords us the patience to optimize our exits over time as markets heal in order to maximize value for our investors.

該公司與業績相關的內在獲利能力是巨大的。一如既往，我們的長期資本使我們有耐心隨著市場的恢復而優化退出，以便為投資者實現價值最大化。

In closing, history has shown that Blackstone has always emerged from cycles even stronger. Our business has been built on this throughout nearly 4 decades. We are now in the process of emerging from a significant cycle and we are confident that history will repeat itself again because of the power of our brand, our platform, our people and our culture.

最後，歷史表明，黑石總是能從週期中變得更強大。近 4 年來，我們的業務一直以此為基礎。我們現在正處於擺脫一個重要周期的過程中，我們相信，由於我們的品牌、我們的平台、我們的員工和我們的文化的力量，歷史將再次重演。

With that, we thank you for joining the call and would like to open it up now for questions.

在此，我們感謝您加入此次電話會議，並希望現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們先去找美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

My question is on investing. Steve, I think I first heard your bullish commentary at Davos last week, but Jon really supported it today in the prepared comments with the CMBS market reopening, cost of capital falling, spreads are tighter. So the backdrop does seem to be a lot better with them when you last hosted a call, and that's in October. And also, your deployment to new commitments were up nicely, too. So what is your outlook for deployments broadly in 2024 versus the $74 billion last year? It sounds like it could be a double.

我的問題是關於投資。史蒂夫，我想我是上週在達沃斯第一次聽到你的樂觀評論，但喬恩今天在準備好的評論中真正支持了你的觀點，CMBS 市場重新開放，資本成本下降，利差收緊。因此，當您上次主持電話會議時（那是在 10 月），他們的背景似乎確實要好得多。而且，你對新承諾的部署也進展順利。那麼，與去年的 740 億美元相比，您對 2024 年的整體部署前景有何看法？聽起來可能是雙標。

Craig, I love the question. I would say putting numbers on this is very hard, given the nature of the business. What we can say is lots of good things are coming into place, right? We've got the Fed moving from tightening to lowering rates. You've got debt market spreads starting to come down a bit. You've got an equity market that has rallied. I think we're going to see the IPO market pickup and then M&A volume is picking up as well.

克雷格，我喜歡這個問題。我想說，考慮到業務的性質，用數字來說明這一點非常困難。我們可以說很多好事正在發生，對嗎？我們已經讓聯準會從緊縮轉向降低利率。債務市場利差開始略有下降。股市已經上漲。我認為我們將看到 IPO 市場回暖，然後併購量也會回升。

There are lots of companies out there who would like to sell things, private equity firms, in particular. There are folks in real estate who've been frozen here for a couple of years. So putting numbers on it is hard, but we would expect deal activity to pick up. It sometimes, of course, takes time to do these things.

有很多公司想要出售東西，特別是私募股權公司。有些房地產行業的人已經被凍結在這裡幾年了。因此，很難給出具體數字，但我們預計交易活動將會增加。當然，有時做這些事情需要時間。

So a bunch of the deals you saw in private equity we've been working on for some time. But the path of travel here is sort of up and to the right in terms of deal activity, putting an exact number, I think, is just tough.

您在私募股權領域看到的許多交易我們已經進行了一段時間了。但就交易活動而言，這裡的旅行路徑有點向上和向右，我認為給出一個確切的數字是很困難的。

We'll take our next question from Crispin Love with Piper Sandler.

我們將回答 Crispin Love 和 Piper Sandler 提出的下一個問題。

Can you just give us your views on the apartment sector right now. You made a pretty good sized deal in the space last week. So I'm curious on your views on that deal and just apartments in general as we head into 2024, and how that stack breaks against the other sectors you're most active in, in real estate. And if you could see additional activity in that space.

您能告訴我們您現在對公寓產業的看法嗎？上週您在該領域達成了一筆規模相當大的交易。因此，我很好奇您對這筆交易以及在我們進入 2024 年時對公寓的整體看法，以及該堆疊與您最活躍的其他房地產行業有何不同。如果您能看到該空間中的其他活動。

So a couple of things here. The transaction we announced last week included an apartment component, but that was mostly in Canadian apartments. The vast majority of the company is focused on single-family for rent. That space because of the shortage of single-family homes has been much stronger.

這裡有幾件事。我們上周宣布的交易包括公寓部分，但主要是加拿大公寓。該公司的絕大多數業務都專注於出租單戶住宅。由於單戶住宅的短缺，這個空間要強大得多。

In the multifamily space, as we've noted here, what we've seen is a surge of new supply that was put in place during the low rate period when values had moved up a lot. And that's going to take probably 12 months, maybe a little longer to work through.

在多戶住宅領域，正如我們在此指出的，我們看到的是在低利率時期價值大幅上漲時投入的新供應激增。這可能需要 12 個月甚至更長的時間才能完成。

Right now, rents have moved down to a level where they're pretty flat. In some cases, modestly negative. And as I said, that will take some time. The good news is multifamily construction is now down about 1/3. And so once you sort of work through this, we should be in a much better place, and the overall backdrop is one of a housing shortage in the United States.

目前，租金已降至相當平穩的水平。在某些情況下，適度負面。正如我所說，這需要一些時間。好消息是多戶住宅建設現已下降約 1/3。因此，一旦你解決了這個問題，我們應該處於一個更好的境地，而整體背景是美國住房短缺。

So single-family stronger near-term, multifamily definitely a little bit weaker, but an overall constructive housing environment in terms of our investment activity, it's possible you could see us invest into the weakness in multifamily because we've got a long-term constructive view even if there are some near-term headwinds.

因此，單戶住宅短期內會更強，多戶住宅肯定會稍弱一些，但就我們的投資活動而言，整體住房環境具有建設性，您可能會看到我們投資於多戶住宅的弱點，因為我們有長期的投資即使近期存在一些阻力，也持建設性觀點。

We'll go next to Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們將討論摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

I wanted to ask about the commercial real estate lending platform that you have from BXMT the BREDS and the institutional SMAs. I was hoping you could talk a bit about how you're broadening out the platform and the capabilities? And how big of an opportunity set do you see given certain end market pressures as well as certain constraints facing U.S. banks and other existing CRE investors.

我想問一下 BXMT、BREDS 和機構 SMA 提供的商業房地產貸款平台。我希望您能談談您如何擴展平台和功能？考慮到某些終端市場壓力以及美國銀行和其他現有商業房地產投資者面臨的某些限制，您認為機會有多大。

Well, we definitely think it's a good time to be a commercial mortgage real estate lender because the sentiment is so poor. And to your point, Michael, capital has pulled back, banks are trying to reduce exposure.

嗯，我們絕對認為現在是成為商業抵押房地產貸款人的好時機，因為市場情緒如此糟糕。邁克爾，就你的觀點而言，資本已經撤回，銀行正在努力減少風險敞口。

Our business today, I think, is a little over $70 billion in that space. And the nice thing about the capital we have is it really runs the gamut. We have our BREDS funds, which are more high yield in nature. We're raising the fifth vintage of that.

我認為，我們今天在該領域的業務略高於 700 億美元。我們擁有的資本的好處是它確實涵蓋了所有領域。我們有我們的 BREDS 基金，本質上收益更高。我們正在釀造第五個年份的葡萄酒。

We do transitional mortgages and Blackstone Mortgage Trust. Then we have our insurance clients who want to do more stabilized real estate. And then we also have for the insurance clients and other clients, what we do in the CMBS market around liquid securities and real estate debt. And we think this is a sector that has really lagged. If you look at spreads, they're pretty wide by historic standards, loan to values have fallen. It's the natural thing that happens after a downturn.

我們提供過渡性抵押貸款和 Blackstone Mortgage Trust。然後我們的保險客戶想要做更穩定的房地產。然後，我們還為保險客戶和其他客戶提供我們在 CMBS 市場上圍繞流動證券和房地產債務所做的工作。我們認為這個行業確實已經落後了。如果你看一下利差，以歷史標準來看，它們相當寬，貸款價值比已經下降。這是經濟衰退後自然發生的事。

And so I think this is an area that can continue to grow at a pretty good clip just because I think you can earn very attractive returns relative to the risk. And just like on the equity side, this is an area we're going to be leaning into as we move into this year.

因此，我認為這是一個可以繼續以相當好的速度成長的領域，因為我認為相對於風險，你可以獲得非常有吸引力的回報。就像股票方面一樣，這是我們今年將重點關注的一個領域。

We'll go next to Finian O'Shea with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來我們將討論富國銀行證券公司的 Finian O'Shea。

Michael, I appreciate your color on the flagship and management fees. Can you touch on if there's perhaps more of a headwind to come in terms of step downs or otherwise as you go through the flagship holiday periods or if it should be more of a smooth journey from here given, of course, stable to improving deployment over the course of this year.

邁克爾，我很欣賞你對旗艦店和管理費的看法。您能否談談，在您經歷旗艦假期期間，在降級或其他方面是否可能會遇到更多阻力，或者從這裡開始的旅程是否應該更加順利，當然，考慮到穩定的改進部署今年的歷程。

Sure, Finian. Yes, as we outlined this year as opposed to last year, where I think in the second half of the year, there was more of a sort of an absence of significant flagships lighting for Europe being an exceptional late in the year.

當然，菲尼安。是的，正如我們今年所概述的，與去年不同，我認為在今年下半年，歐洲更多地缺乏重要的旗艦照明，這在今年晚些時候是一個例外。

But there will be a series of activity we anticipate throughout the year. I mentioned sort of the multiple funds that fit in that category. Almost all of them, as you alluded to, have a 3- or 4-month fee holiday. So we'll be sort of seeing that unfold in the course of the next few quarters. And you will see all else equal because of the fee holiday, some marginal pressure on that. But I think when we look at the overall growth rate and how that will layer in, we see an embedded upward ramp on management fees, although it will accelerate later in the year as opposed to earlier.

但我們預計全年將有一系列活動。我提到了屬於該類別的多種基金。正如您所提到的，幾乎所有這些機構都有 3 或 4 個月的費用假期。因此，我們將在接下來的幾個季度中看到這種情況的發展。由於費用假期，你會發現其他一切都一樣，這會帶來一些邊際壓力。但我認為，當我們審視整體成長率及其如何分層時，我們會看到管理費的內在上升，儘管它將在今年晚些時候而不是早些時候加速。

We'll go next to Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Another one on real estate and maybe zoning in on core real estate for a second. And obviously, lower interest rates should be really helpful to maybe reigniting some of the investor demand for that part of the market.

另一篇關於房地產的文章，也許會暫時關注核心房地產。顯然，較低的利率應該確實有助於重新點燃投資者對該部分市場的需求。

But how are you thinking about both institutional and retail appetite for core real estate from here, whether it's BPP or BREIT? And what is sort of the level of interest rates we need to see where those products become compelling again from an investor allocation perspective?

但您如何看待機構和散戶對核心房地產（無論是 BPP 還是 BREIT）的興趣？從投資人配置的角度來看，我們需要什麼樣的利率水準才能讓這些產品再次變得有吸引力？

So Alex, I don't know if it's necessarily exactly a certain level. I think it's about momentum. As you know, after investors have taken losses, even if they're modest losses there tends to be caution real estate because of the lag on when challenges materialize, we'll have a number of negative headlines coming out over the course of the year.

所以亞歷克斯，我不知道這是否一定是一定的水平。我認為這與動力有關。如您所知，在投資者遭受損失後，即使損失不大，由於挑戰出現的時間滯後，房地產往往會保持謹慎，今年我們將出現許多負面頭條新聞。

And so what happens is, I think investors tend to take their time in terms of pivoting back to the space. That's certainly what happened in the early '90s. That's what happened in '08, '09. And so there's caution. So you don't see huge sort of surge of capital flowing in on a dime.

所以發生的情況是，我認為投資者傾向於慢慢重返該領域。這確實是 20 世紀 90 年代初發生的事情。這就是08、09年發生的事。所以需要謹慎。因此，你不會看到大量資本立即湧入。

What happens is as a recovery, first, you get this sort of bottoming effect, then you start to get some growth in values and then the consensus starts to change. What happens in this period of time is you tend to get, I think, the greatest opportunities for investing because you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but capital hasn't flown into the space.

發生的情況是，隨著復甦，首先，你會得到這種觸底效應，然後你開始獲得一些價值成長，然後共識開始改變。我認為，在這段時間發生的事情是，你往往會獲得最大的投資機會，因為你可以看到隧道盡頭的曙光，但資本還沒有流入這個領域。

And then over time, as results get better, there's limited new supply, rates have come back down then people start to go back in because they feel like it's safe to do.

然後隨著時間的推移，隨著結果變得更好，新的供應有限，利率回落，然後人們開始回去，因為他們覺得這樣做是安全的。

So I think the short answer is that will take a bit of time on both the institutional and the individual investor side, but it's tied to performance. And it will take multiple quarters of strong performance where people say, "Hey, I'm comfortable doing this." In the meantime, we should be looking to take advantage of this lack of confidence in the marketplace.

因此，我認為簡短的答案是，機構和個人投資者都需要一些時間，但這與業績掛鉤。需要多個季度的強勁表現，人們才會說：“嘿，我很樂意這樣做。”同時，我們應該尋求利用市場缺乏信心的機會。

We'll go next to Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將採訪德意志銀行的布萊恩‧比德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

Great. Maybe a question for Michael and maybe Jon as well. But just, Michael, the -- in talking about the pace of the activations of the funds. Just wanted to get your sense of the confidence of growing the fee-related revenue, not including fee-related performance fees, just the base revenue, they had a double-digit pace in 2024.

偉大的。也許是麥可的問題，也許也是喬恩的問題。但是，邁克爾，在談論資金啟動的速度時。只是想讓您了解與費用相關的收入成長的信心，不包括與費用相關的績效費用，僅包括基本收入，他們在 2024 年的成長率為兩位數。

And it sounds like that pace will -- for calendar '25, would actually accelerate based on the timing of the activations throughout the year? And then if you can also comment on your view on FRE margin for '24, excluding the impact of fee-related performance you said, I know that, that can create noise, but just maybe confidence in scaling the business to have a margin expansion in '24.

聽起來，對於 25 日曆，這一速度實際上會根據全年啟動的時間而加快？然後，如果您也可以評論您對24 年FRE 利潤率的看法，排除您所說的與費用相關的業績影響，我知道，這可能會產生噪音，但也許只是對擴展業務以實現利潤率擴張的信心在'24。

Sure, Brian. Two parts to that question. On the first one on the sort of trajectory of management fee growth for '24 and '25. The short answer is we feel good about it. We can't -- we don't have the crystal ball necessarily in terms of like quarter-to-quarter.

當然，布萊恩。這個問題分為兩個部分。第一個是關於 24 年和 25 年管理費成長軌跡的。簡短的回答是我們對此感覺良好。我們不能——我們不一定有季度到季度的水晶球。

But structurally, we have that embedded ramp. As I mentioned, it will accelerate throughout the year given the series of funds that were light, and we see good strength in the latter half of the year and also in 2025, as you point out.

但從結構上來說，我們有嵌入式坡道。正如我所提到的，考慮到一系列清淡的基金，這一趨勢將在全年加速，正如您所指出的，我們看到下半年以及 2025 年的強勁勢頭。

We're focused on dry down funds. That's an important engine in the business. Obviously, among other key positive factors is insurance where we've sort of had a lot of visibility and articulated it since we really scaled -- started scaling this business a couple of years ago about built in, in many cases, contractual inflows from our 4 large partners and other insurance clients, which -- and we are pursuing the sort of the industry overall, I think, with a lot of optimism in the credit insurance area. So there are, I think, multiple engines, not just the new drawdowns firing there, although, again, I think it will accelerate through the course of the year into '25.

我們專注於乾涸資金。這是業務的重要引擎。顯然，其他關鍵的積極因素之一是保險，自從我們真正擴大規模以來，我們已經有很多可見性並闡明了它——幾年前開始擴大這項業務，在很多情況下，我們的合約資金流入是內建的。4 個大型合作夥伴和其他保險客戶，我認為，我們正在追求整個行業的那種，在信用保險領域非常樂觀。因此，我認為，有多個引擎，而不僅僅是在那裡啟動新的縮減，儘管我再次認為，它將在今年進入 25 年加速。

On margins, obviously, we're in a sort of more challenging macro environment. We feel good about our execution on margins in 2023. And what I would say about the outlook is that it's early in the year. And as always, we'd encourage you to look on a full year basis, not sort of measure it quarter-to-quarter. But with that said, at the outset of the year again, I would reinforce the message of margin stability as a general guidepost.

顯然，就利潤率而言，我們正處於更具挑戰性的宏觀環境中。我們對 2023 年的利潤率執行感到滿意。關於前景，我想說的是，現在還處於今年年初。像往常一樣，我們鼓勵您以全年為基礎進行觀察，而不是按季度進行衡量。但話雖如此，在今年年初，我會再次強調保證金穩定的訊息，將其作為整體路標。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

接下來我們將與瑞銀一起前往布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

You sort of touched on this a little bit with the margin stability point. But one thing I'm just curious about mechanically. So full year 2023 FRE revenue, down almost 3%, yet comp ratio up over 200 basis points, FRE comp ratio. So how is it possible to generate positive comp ratio leverage when revenues are down. Does that just suggest that FRE margin might compress when revenues grow? Or just we should think about FRE margins stable? Just maybe help me understand those mechanics.

您稍微觸及了邊際穩定點。但有一件事我只是對機械方面感到好奇。因此，2023 年全年 FRE 收入下降近 3%，但可比比率上升超過 200 個基點，FRE 可比比率。那麼，當收入下降時，如何產生正的補償比率槓桿呢？這是否表明，當收入成長時，FRE 利潤率可能會壓縮？或者只是我們應該考慮 FRE 利潤率穩定？也許只是幫我理解這些機制。

Yes, I wouldn't -- Brennan, I would actually just think about it in the real world, our ability sort of collectively to manage our cost structure, which we feel very good about. There is, I think, structurally a robust underlying long-term margin position of the firm that we've demonstrated with sort of operating leverage built into our model.

是的，我不會——布倫南，我實際上只是在現實世界中考慮一下，我們集體管理成本結構的能力，我們對此感覺非常好。我認為，從結構上看，公司具有強大的潛在長期利潤狀況，我們已經透過模型中內建的某種營運槓桿來證明了這一點。

At the same time, we believe that we take a disciplined approach to cost management and have a fair degree of control over our cost structure. And as part of that, of course, we do take into account the financial performance of each business in terms of management compensation in a given year.

同時，我們相信我們對成本管理採取嚴格的方法，並對成本結構有相當程度的控制。當然，作為其中的一部分，我們確實會考慮每個企業在特定年份的管理薪酬方面的財務表現。

And I think you also saw a noncomp operating costs -- operating expenses and you also saw the rate of growth in 2023 significantly lower from the prior couple of years. So that's really how we think about it. We're not sort of takers of the environment, we actively manage our business.

我認為您也看到了非公司營運成本——營運費用，您還看到 2023 年的成長率比前幾年顯著降低。這就是我們的想法。我們不是環境的接受者，我們積極管理我們的業務。

We'll go next to Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

接下來我們將討論摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

I wanted to dig into the outlook for real estate carry. It was clearly depressed in 2023. And Jonathan, you mentioned the bottoming of real estate valuations. How long do you expect it could take for real estate carry to get back to more normalized levels?

我想深入研究房地產的前景。 2023 年顯然很蕭條。喬納森，你提到房地產估值觸底。您預計房地產利差需要多長時間才能恢復到更正常的水平？

Is this something you see could possibly bounce back later in '24? Is this sort of more obviously a 2025 sort of event? Or do you expect it could take longer into to '26 or '27? And then when real estate carry does bounce back to this sort of normal level, what does the macro picture look like at that point?

您認為這可能會在 24 年晚些時候反彈嗎？這是否更明顯是 2025 年的事件？或者您預計可能需要更長的時間才能進入“26”或“27”？然後，當房地產利差確實反彈到這種正常水平時，那時的宏觀情況會是什麼樣子？

Okay. Well, it's always hard to have a crystal ball where things are going to develop. But clearly, when you're going through a cycle like this, as we've talked about, it takes a bit of time. And even the sales process in real estate, where you don't have a lot of liquid public securities, you take off the shelf and sell that lends itself to time.

好的。嗯，總是很難有一個水晶球來預測事情的發展。但顯然，當你經歷這樣的週期時，正如我們所討論的，需要一些時間。甚至在房地產的銷售過程中，你沒有大量流動性公共證券，你也可以把架子上架並出售，這也適合時間。

So yes, I wouldn't expect a big surge in realizations in real estate in the first half of the year. We would expect, as we look out over time, it will pick up. It's possible you could do larger transactions with some public companies to get things done.

所以，是的，我預計今年上半年房地產變現不會大幅成長。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，它會有所回升。您可能可以與一些上市公司進行更大規模的交易來完成任務。

Certainly, our confidence as you get to the back half of the year and into '25, you feel better about that. And so I guess what I would say is this is a transitional year in terms of realizations in real estate. I would generally keep expectations on the lower side. I would feel a lot better as I look out over time.

當然，我們有信心，當你進入今年下半年和進入 25 年後，你會感覺更好。所以我想我想說的是，就房地產的實現而言，今年是過渡的一年。我通常會將期望保持在較低的水平。隨著時間的推移，當我向外看時，我會感覺好多了。

And the macro environment for that is a lower rate environment where we're back to modest growth or we're at modest growth, and we have limited new supply and people are investing again in this asset class because it's delivering favorable results.

其宏觀環境是較低的利率環境，我們回到溫和成長或處於溫和成長，我們的新供應有限，人們再次投資於此資產類別，因為它帶來了有利的結果。

So I do think on real estate realizations you need a little bit of patience. I say that, of course, and then something will happen, but that would be our base case assumption. The good news is we feel terrific about where we've deployed the capital. The huge exposure we have in some of the very best sectors.

所以我確實認為在房地產變現方面你需要一點耐心。當然，我這麼說，然後就會發生一些事情，但這將是我們的基本情況假設。好消息是我們對資本的部署感到非常滿意。我們在一些最好的行業中擁有巨大的曝光度。

The majority of our real estate portfolio on the equity side is in logistics, student housing and data centers, all sectors where we're seeing high single-digit rates of growth even in this environment. So when the environment gets better, we think we'll have the kinds of things the market wants. And we'll do it when we think values are appropriate.

我們在股權方面的房地產投資組合大部分位於物流、學生宿舍和資料中心，即使在這種環境下，我們也能看到這些領域的單位數成長率很高。因此，當環境變得更好時，我們認為我們將擁有市場想要的東西。當我們認為價值觀合適時我們就會這樣做。

We want to maximize returns for our customers because, as you know, performance is the most important thing. And we think as we come out of this cycle, just like we did out of the last real estate cycle, we're going to emerge stronger. Other competitors, we don't believe will have the same kind of returns and will help us even further grow our market share. So we want to do this in the right way, and it may take a bit of time, but we feel very confident about the ultimate outcome.

我們希望為客戶帶來最大回報，因為如您所知，性能是最重要的。我們認為，當我們走出這個週期時，就像我們走出上一個房地產週期一樣，我們將會變得更強大。我們相信其他競爭對手不會獲得相同的回報，並且會幫助我們進一步擴大市場佔有率。所以我們希望以正確的方式來做這件事，這可能需要一些時間，但我們對最終的結果非常有信心。

We'll go next to Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

接下來我們將請來自主研究中心的 Patrick Davitt。

Despite the recovery in markets and confidence, there are still a lot of observers out there, including senior executives at some of your competitors that seem pretty cautious on the view that this is going to be a much better private equity realizations here, some even saying that PE marks still need a negative reset.

儘管市場和信心有所復甦，但仍然有很多觀察家，包括一些競爭對手的高管，他們似乎相當謹慎，認為這將是一個更好的私募股權變現，有些人甚至說PE標記仍然需要負重置。

You hinted at that in the prepared remarks, but could you expand on where you stand on that debate? And do you have any broader thoughts on why there appears to be such a wide disparity in the PE outlook amongst your peers?

你在準備好的發言中暗示了這一點，但你能詳細闡述你在這場辯論中的立場嗎？對於為什麼同行之間的私募股權前景存在如此巨大的差異，您是否有更廣泛的想法？

Well, I guess I'd start with the facts. Last year, we were actually up year-on-year in private equity realizations and generated strong realizations from that sector, which I think says something about our portfolio where we positioned it and also the march there.

好吧，我想我應該從事實開始。去年，我們的私募股權變現實際上同比增長，並在該領域產生了強勁的變現，我認為這說明了我們的投資組合的定位以及該領域的進展。

So I think our optimism comes from where we're positioned, some of the sectors in terms of digital migration, what's happening in energy transition, life sciences, a bunch of businesses and sectors that have done quite well. The fact that we had greater than 7% revenue growth in our portfolio in the fourth quarter. We saw margin expansion as cost came down.

因此，我認為我們的樂觀情緒來自於我們所處的位置，包括數位遷移的一些部門、能源轉型、生命科學等領域正在發生的事情，以及許多做得很好的企業和部門。事實上，我們的投資組合第四季的營收成長超過 7%。隨著成本下降，我們看到利潤率擴大。

I'd say we overall feel pretty good about our portfolio. And I think it's a combination, as we've talked about, of good underlying economic growth, the right sectors and now a more favorable sort of capital markets environment with inflation and rates coming down.

我想說，我們總體上對我們的投資組合感覺非常好。我認為，正如我們所討論的，這是良好的基礎經濟成長、正確的產業以及現在通貨膨脹和利率下降的更有利的資本市場環境的結合。

So that leads us to have some confidence here. Things can change as we saw last year quickly in March of last year with the bank crisis in the late summer with rates moving up. But as we sit today, we feel good.

這讓我們對此充滿信心。事情可能會發生變化，正如我們去年三月看到的那樣，夏末發生了銀行危機，利率上升。但當我們今天坐下來時，我們感覺很好。

And so I think in terms of what you own, where you carry it, that leads you to your relative level of confidence, I believe. And so we still feel pretty good about the outlook in private equity.

因此，我認為，就你所擁有的東西以及你攜帶它的位置而言，我相信這會引導你達到相對的自信水平。因此，我們仍然對私募股權的前景感到相當看好。

We'll go next to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

接下來我們將與傑弗里斯一起前往丹·範農 (Dan Fannon)。

My question is on BXP, and I was hoping to -- maybe talk about the addressable market for this product. I believe you typically have exclusive distribution relationships at the start. So wondering when you think this will be broadly available and how that potentially could scale.

我的問題是關於 BXP，我希望能夠談談該產品的潛在市場。我相信您一開始通常就擁有獨家經銷關係。因此，想知道您何時認為這將被廣泛使用以及它可能如何擴展。

Well, I'd start with the backdrop on individual investors. We've talked about it on these calls in the past, but there's about $80 trillion of wealth globally, folks who have more than $1 million of investable assets. We estimate that, that's about 1% allocated to alternatives versus, call it, 29%, 30% with our institutional clients. We think that has a lot of room to grow.

好吧，我將從個人投資者的背景開始。我們過去在這些電話會議上討論過這個問題，但全球約有 80 兆美元的財富，人們擁有超過 100 萬美元的可投資資產。我們估計，大約 1% 分配給另類投資，而我們的機構客戶則分配給 29%、30%。我們認為這有很大的成長空間。

We've shown success obviously in strong performance with our private real estate vehicle, our private credit vehicle, and we think the natural evolution here is a private equity vehicle. The strategy is broad-based as we talked about on the call, not just traditional corporate private equity, but tactical opportunities, secondaries, growth, life sciences really plays to our strength of this broad platform that we have.

我們的私人房地產工具、私人信貸工具的強勁表現顯然取得了成功，我們認為這裡的自然演變是私募股權工具。正如我們在電話會議上談到的那樣，該策略基礎廣泛，不僅僅是傳統的企業私募股權，還有戰術機會、二級市場、成長、生命科學，真正發揮了我們擁有的這個廣泛平台的優勢。

And so as we look forward here, we think individual investors will respond. And of course, it's a function of how we deliver over time. Initially, we had a very strong start with that $1.3 billion first close, which reflects the relationships we've built up over time.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我們認為個人投資者將會做出回應。當然，這取決於我們如何隨著時間的推移交付。最初，我們有一個非常強勁的開端，首次成交金額達 13 億美元，這反映了我們隨著時間的推移建立的關係。

I think an interesting fact and that was pointed out yesterday, is 85% of the financial advisers who allocated to BXP in that first close had already allocated to BREIT and even a higher percentage had allocated to BCRED, showing cumulatively between BREIT and BCRED, showing that our customers feel tremendous loyalty to us.

我認為昨天指出的一個有趣的事實是，在首次收盤時分配給BXP 的財務顧問中，85% 已經分配給了BREIT，甚至更高的比例分配給了BCRED，這表明BREIT 和BCRED 之間的累積情況，顯示我們的客戶對我們有極大的忠誠度。

So the fact that we have these deep long relationships we've developed confidence we've delivered performance. I think that makes us uniquely positioned in the retail space. And we think creating access to private equity in a semi-liquid format will be more attractive. There will still be investors in the individual investor space who will invest with us and draw down funds.

因此，事實上，我們擁有這些深厚的長期關係，我們對我們交付的業績充滿信心。我認為這使我們在零售領域處於獨特的地位。我們認為以半流動形式創造私募股權投資機會將更具吸引力。個人投資者領域仍然會有投資者與我們一起投資並提取資金。

But of course, you don't get all that capital back for 12-plus years, and it's got a little bit of a different structure. It lends itself to a smaller investor universe. We think there's going to be a lot of receptivity to this product.

但當然，你不可能在 12 年多的時間裡收回所有資本，而且它的結構有點不同。它適合較小的投資者群體。我們認為這款產品將會受到許多人的歡迎。

We're going to have to do like we did with BREIT and BCRED, which is delivered for the customers. As we do that, we think this product can grow to scale. We're today at $60 billion of equity in BREIT, roughly $30 billion in BCRED, $60 billion of gross assets. And we think this product has the opportunity to grow as well, but we've got to deliver for the customers, get out there, engage and do it over time.

我們必須像對待 BREIT 和 BCRED 一樣，為客戶提供服務。當我們這樣做時，我們認為該產品可以擴大規模。目前，我們的 BREIT 股本為 600 億美元，BCRED 約為 300 億美元，總資產為 600 億美元。我們認為這個產品也有機會成長，但我們必須為客戶提供服務，走出去，參與並隨著時間的推移做到這一點。

We'll go next to Ben Budish with Barclays.

接下來我們將與巴克萊銀行的 Ben Budish 會面。

I wanted to ask on the insurance inflows. I guess, first for the quarter, your inflows really picked up quite a bit versus Q3, and I think came in nicely ahead of where you had initially at least kind of indicated last quarter, you were looking for the year. So was there any sort of pull forward? Does that sort of change the outlook for 2024?

我想問一下保​​險資金流入的情況。我想，首先在本季度，與第三季度相比，您的資金流入確實增加了很多，而且我認為，遠遠超出了您最初至少在上個季度表示的情況，您正在尋找今年的資金。那麼有什麼推動力嗎？這會改變 2024 年的前景嗎？

And then just thinking tactically, you indicated you'd get to the $250 million over the next several years. Can you be any more specific, what does several mean? How should we think -- is this $15 billion, $20 billion over the next, like 3, 4 years? How should we be thinking about that just as we're kind of fine-tuning our models?

然後只是從戰術上考慮，您表示您將在未來幾年內達到 2.5 億美元。能具體點嗎，幾個是什麼意思？我們該如何思考——這 150 億美元、200 億美元是在接下來的 3、4 年裡嗎？當我們微調我們的模型時，我們該如何思考這個問題？

Ben, it's Michael, I think overall, there's really good momentum sort of embedded in our insurance and credit business. And then just in terms of -- in real time, the interest inflows we're seeing.

本，我是邁克爾，我認為總體而言，我們的保險和信貸業務確實存在良好的勢頭。然後就實時而言，我們看到的利息流入。

To answer your first question, we don't -- the sort of drivers of the inflows, I don't think involve sort of a pulling forward from 2025. It was a balanced attack across credit insurance between our insurance clients direct lending, which we highlighted in the 8-K, $7.5 billion, not just from BCRED, but also from institutional clients, our CLO platform, our ABS platform and so on. So I'd say a very diversified sort of balanced attack, if you will.

為了回答你的第一個問題，我們不認為資金流入的驅動因素涉及從 2025 年開始的某種拉動。這是我們的保險客戶直接貸款之間對信用保險的平衡攻擊，這我們在8-K中強調，75億美元不僅來自BCRED，還來自機構客戶、我們的CLO平台、我們的ABS平台等等。所以如果你願意的話，我想說的是一種非常多樣化的平衡攻擊。

I think in terms of the inflows, we see in the insurance area specifically, I think earlier in 2023, we talked about sort of a general range target of $25 billion to $30 billion of inflows from the 4 major partners. We actually came in a bit above the high end of that range. And this year, I'd just say as a starting point, I'm certainly ending point, but the starting point, we see baseline expected inflows from those 4 clients in that range or better.

我認為就資金流入而言，我們特別在保險領域看到，我認為在 2023 年早些時候，我們討論了來自 4 個主要合作夥伴的 250 億至 300 億美元資金流入的總體目標。實際上，我們的排名略高於該範圍的高端。今年，我只想說，作為一個起點，我當然是終點，但起點，我們看到這 4 位客戶的基線預期流入在該範圍內或更好。

I would just add, given our model, which is in the open architecture, the opportunity to do SMAs with other individual insurance clients, not necessarily these 4 large strategics, we think that opportunity is significant.

我想補充一點，鑑於我們的模型採用開放式架構，有機會與其他個人保險客戶（不一定是這 4 個大型策略）進行 SMA，我們認為機會很重要。

And of course, we're out there looking for other strategic partners. And our plan, as you know, is to run a capital-light insurance business managing money and doing it for a wide variety of clients. Given the performance, what we've been able to deliver in terms of credit quality, and yield premium, we think will attract more insurance companies.

當然，我們正在尋找其他策略夥伴。如您所知，我們的計劃是經營一家輕資本的保險業務，管理資金並為各種客戶提供服務。考慮到我們在信貸品質和收益率溢價方面的表現，我們認為將吸引更多的保險公司。

So this is an area we believe of real momentum, and we think we have multiple engines of growth, and we're going to be added and having these 4 anchor clients is very helpful.

因此，我們相信這是一個具有真正動力的領域，我們認為我們擁有多個成長引擎，我們將被添加，擁有這 4 個主力客戶非常有幫助。

We'll go next to Mike Brown with KBW.

接下來我們將與 KBW 一起前往邁克布朗 (Mike Brown)。

Great. I wanted to just ask on the fee rates in the real estate and the credit business. We noticed that they declined in the fourth quarter and understanding that's an output and can be noisy quarter-over-quarter. Do you view this as maybe the right jumping off point into 2024?

偉大的。我想問一下房地產和信貸業務的費率。我們注意到它們在第四季度有所下降，並理解這是一個產出，並且可能會比季度更吵雜。您認為這可能是進入 2024 年的正確起點嗎？

And can you just help us think about maybe the blending of the fee rates on a go-forward basis as we think about the push and pull of kind of the lower fee rate insurance AUM contrasted with the higher fee, high net worth AUM inflows.

當我們考慮較低費率的保險資產管理規模與較高費用、高淨值資產管理規模流入的推動和拉動時，您能否幫助我們考慮未來的費率混合。

Sure, Mike. Look, I think overall, if you look at our -- across the firm, sort of the math of our average -- our average management fee rate across the whole firm, it's been, I think, remarkably stable over multiple years.

當然，麥克。聽著，我認為總體而言，如果你看看我們的——整個公司的平均管理費率——我們整個公司的平均管理費率，我認為多年來一直非常穩定。

If you look at more recently in the last quarter at the specific segments you mentioned, in credit insurance, if you just do the math, I think it was down like a basis point. So I think it is quite stable, even though the growth, the trend is an attractive and I think high margin growth in our insurance area that does come at a lower sort of weighted average management fee.

如果你最近看看上個季度你提到的信用保險領域的具體細分市場，如果你簡單算一下，我認為它下降了一個基點。因此，我認為它相當穩定，儘管成長，但趨勢很有吸引力，我認為我們保險領域的高利潤成長確實以較低的加權平均管理費實現。

And so I think to the extent there's been aggregate dilution at the margin or lowering at the margin over the last few years. It's been -- a lot of that is the insurance flows. And obviously, we'll take that. And if you look sort of excluding the Insurance Solutions business, the fee rates have been really, really stable.

因此，我認為在過去幾年中，利潤率總體被稀釋或下降。其中很大一部分是保險流量。顯然，我們會接受的。如果你把保險解決方案業務排除在外，你會發現費率非常非常穩定。

In real estate, I think quarter-over-quarter, there was the effect of the signature debt portfolio coming in, which is at $17 billion actually fee earning AUM. That's obviously exciting transaction.

我認為，在房地產領域，每季都會受到標誌性債務投資組合的影響，實際收費資產管理規模為 170 億美元。這顯然是令人興奮的交易。

We do earn different tiers of fees across most of those assets. We earn fees from the BREDS equity we're putting in. We earn a different fee on our co-invest capital and then an overall fee on the asset portfolio, which is at a lower rate, which is how that works with these sort of large-scale debt asset portfolio. So that had -- that is the largest explainer, I think, of a little bit of lowering of the management fee between quarter-over-quarter.

我們確實在大多數資產中賺取不同等級的費用。我們從我們投入的BREDS 股權中賺取費用。我們從我們的共同投資資本中賺取不同的費用，然後從資產組合中收取總體費用，該費用的費率較低，這就是與這些類型一起工作的方式規模化的債務資產組合。我認為，這是管理費逐季度略有下降的最大解釋。

We'll go next to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將採訪沃爾夫研究中心的史蒂文·丘巴克。

So I wanted to ask a question on election game theory. And I recognize, Jon, that you don't have a crystal ball, you already covered that. But just given the likelihood of a Trump-Biden rematch, potential changes in protectionist policies, energy transition, infra, what have you.

所以我想問一個關於選舉博弈論的問題。我認識到，喬恩，你沒有水晶球，你已經涵蓋了這一點。但考慮到川普與拜登重賽的可能性、保護主義政策的潛在變化、能源轉型等，你有什麼。

You alluded to accelerating deployment across the platform, but do you see any risk of an activity air pocket until we get improved election clarity. And how does it inform your own approach just to managing the portfolio and your dry powder across the different strategies?

您提到要加速整個平台的部署，但在我們提高選舉透明度之前，您是否認為有活動空氣袋的風險？它如何指導您自己管理投資組合和跨不同策略的乾粉的方法？

Well, I think there'll be obviously intense focus on the election, but I think it will not deter transaction activity, particularly if inflation keeps coming down, and the Fed starts cutting interest rates. I think that will be more dispositive.

嗯，我認為人們顯然會高度關注選舉，但我認為這不會阻止交易活動，特別是如果通膨持續下降並且聯準會開始降息的話。我認為這會更具決定性。

There are sectors which may be more or less affected depending on which party wins here, although it's very possible that one party wins in terms of the presidency and another party might win in terms of the house and so forth. And so you end up with divided government and policy changes overall are more moderate.

有些部門可能會或多或少受到影響，這取決於哪個政黨在這裡獲勝，儘管很可能一個政黨在總統職位上獲勝，而另一個政黨可能在眾議院等方面獲勝。因此，最終會出現政府分裂和政策變化總體上更加溫和的情況。

I think the most important thing to remember from our firm standpoint is we take a long-term approach when we're investing capital, and we try not to get caught up in just the news of the day.

我認為，從我們堅定的立場來看，最重要的是，我們在投資資本時採取長期策略，並且盡量不要只專注於當天的新聞。

And if you look at our firm over the nearly 40 years since Steve founded it here, we've been in governments where we've had blue, red, purple and we've delivered for our customers in those environments and since 2007, delivered for our shareholders, we don't expect that to be any different.

如果你看看我們公司自史蒂夫在這裡創立以來的近40 年，我們一直在政府中提供藍色、紅色、紫色，我們在這些環境中為我們的客戶提供服務，自2007 年以來，我們為這些環境中的客戶提供了服務對於我們的股東來說，我們預計情況不會有任何不同。

But I'd say transaction activity is going to be more tied to the Fed's activity than the election. And for us, it's taking this long-term approach, but also keeping an eye on are there areas that are more sensitive politically. But overall, if we think it's a good time to deploy capital, we're not going to let the election prospects dissuade us.

但我想說，交易活動與聯準會活動的連結將比選舉更加密切。對我們來說，它採取了這種長期方法，但也密切關注是否存在政治上更敏感的領域。但總的來說，如果我們認為現在是部署資本的好時機，我們就不會讓選舉前景阻止我們。

We'll take our next question from Bill Katz with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Bill Katz 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

So maybe circling back to the credit platform for a while. So I appreciate that you have a multi-vectored opportunity set there, but there's been some building debate in the market around the outlook for direct lending in light of the fact that perhaps the issues around the banking system are starting to stabilize as a result of that sort of pickup in the syndicated loan market.

因此，也許我們會暫時回到信用平台。因此，我很欣賞您在那裡擁有多方面的機會，但市場上圍繞直接貸款的前景存在一些激烈的爭論，因為銀行體系的問題可能由於以下原因開始穩定下來：銀團貸款市場的這種回升。

How do you sort of think it plays through in terms of direct lending opportunity in terms of both unit growth as well as spreads? Certainly, appreciate you have a very big fund in the market, but just your broader thought process and how it plays out from a competitive and a return perspective.

您認為它在單位成長和利差方面如何發揮直接貸款機會？當然，感謝您在市場上擁有一隻非常大的基金，但只是您更廣泛的思維過程以及它如何從競爭和回報的角度發揮作用。

Thanks, Bill. I think on the direct lending front, specifically, there is more capital coming into the market today. As you said, the banks are coming back, although their appetite for bridging things for long periods of time, I still think is a little more limited. There are other players coming into the direct lending space.

謝謝，比爾。我認為，特別是在直接貸款方面，今天有更多的資本進入市場。正如你所說，銀行正在捲土重來，儘管他們對長期彌合事物的興趣，我仍然認為是有限的。還有其他參與者進入直接貸款領域。

The good news going back to the earlier conversation is we're seeing a pickup in transaction activity. And so although the supply of capital may be picking up here, I think the demand for that capital will grow.

回到之前的談話，好消息是我們看到交易活動有所回升。因此，儘管這裡的資本供應可能有所增加，但我認為對該資本的需求將會成長。

I'd also say for us, specifically with $100-plus billion in the space, our ability to write very large checks is a very significant competitive advantage. So the fact that we can commit to a multibillion-dollar transaction on our own across our various private vehicles, our BDCs, that is really helpful.

我還想說，對我們來說，特別是在這個領域，我們擁有超過 1000 億美元的資金，我們開出大支票的能力是一個非常重要的競爭優勢。因此，我們可以自己在各種私人車輛（我們的 BDC）上進行數十億美元的交易，這一事實非常有幫助。

And structurally, I think direct lending's competitive advantage is our ability to give borrowers certainty. From the bank standpoint, of course, they've got to have some flex because they want to distribute that paper. They don't want to take losses we, because we're in the storage business, can offer that borrower certainty.

從結構上講，我認為直接貸款的競爭優勢是我們為借款人提供確定性的能力。當然，從銀行的角度來看，他們必須有一些彈性，因為他們想要分發該文件。他們不想承受損失，因為我們從事儲存業務，可以為借款人提供確定性。

And so particularly, on new originations, we think that is an area that will continue to be strong for direct lending. We think the pickup in deal activity will be helpful here, and we think our scale will certainly be helpful.

因此，特別是在新的起源方面，我們認為這是一個直接貸款將繼續強勁的領域。我們認為交易活動的增加將對此有所幫助，我們認為我們的規模也肯定會有所幫助。

So yes, I think the environment does get a little more competitive. The good news is the credit quality of what's being originated still feels very good. I mean the average loan to value last year for us in our direct lending was only 40%, a fraction of what it was, let's say, 15 years ago.

所以，是的，我認為環境確實變得更有競爭力了。好消息是，所發起的信用品質仍然非常好。我的意思是，去年我們直接貸款的平均貸款價值僅為 40%，只是 15 年前的一小部分。

And you look across our portfolio in direct lending and defaults are almost nonexistent, which is quite remarkable. So the platform seems to be in good shape. There may be more capital coming to the space, but I think there'll be more deal flow as well. And so that's a positive.

縱觀我們的直接貸款投資組合，違約幾乎不存在，這是非常了不起的。因此，該平台似乎狀況良好。可能會有更多的資本進入這個領域，但我認為也會有更多的交易流。這是正面的一面。

Our final question will come from the line of Arnaud Giblat with BNP.

我們的最後一個問題將來自法國巴黎銀行的阿諾吉布拉特 (Arnaud Giblat)。

I was wondering if you could discuss the outlook for performance fee-related revenues at BREIT and BPP in 2024, given what you said on high levels of competition in multi-times and what that does to rent growth? And also given the potential for falling rates in the U.S., how should we think about the potential for lower cap rates and valuations versus the movement in hedges?

我想知道您是否可以討論一下 2024 年 BREIT 和 BPP 與業績費相關的收入前景，考慮到您所說的多次激烈競爭以及這對租金增長有何影響？而且考慮到美國利率可能下降，我們應該如何考慮資本化率和估值相對於對沖變動的下降潛力？

Well, I would say this. I go back to the big picture here, which we talked about, which is we do think we're seeing a bottoming in values, but we don't think this is some sort of V-shaped recovery.

嗯，我會這麼說。我回到我們討論過的大局，我們確實認為我們正在看到價值觸底，但我們不認為這是某種 V 型復甦。

And so for us, we've said we think it's a very good time for deployment. Putting your finger on exactly what values will move to is hard to do. But certainly, rates coming down, new supply coming down are helpful for the sector.

因此，對我們來說，我們認為現在是部署的好時機。要準確地確定值將移動到什麼位置是很難的。但可以肯定的是，利率下降、新供應量下降對該行業有幫助。

I would say this, I would expect this year will certainly be better would be my expectation from a valuation standpoint relative to '23. But making predictions on exactly where it lands, I think that's tough to do this early in the year. But there are some good fundamental things happening on the ground.

我想說的是，從估值的角度來看，我預計今年肯定會比 23 年更好。但要準確預測它的著陸位置，我認為在今年年初很難做到這一點。但實地正在發生一些好的基本事情。

That will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Weston Tucker for any additional or closing remarks.

我們的問答環節就到此結束。我想將電話轉回韋斯頓·塔克（Weston Tucker），詢問任何補充或結束語。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and look forward to following up after the call.

偉大的。謝謝大家今天加入我們，並期待在電話會議後跟進。