Blackstone Inc (BX) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Blackstone First Quarter 2023 Investor Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Blackstone 2023 年第一季度投資者電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）此時，我想將會議轉交給股東關係主管 Weston Tucker。請繼續。

Great. Thanks, Katie, and good morning, and welcome to Blackstone's first quarter conference call. Joining today are: Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. We expect to file our 10-Q report in a few weeks.

偉大的。謝謝，凱蒂，早上好，歡迎來到黑石第一季度電話會議。今天加入的有： Steve Schwarzman，董事長兼首席執行官；喬恩·格雷，總裁兼首席運營官；和 Michael Chae，首席財務官。今天上午早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和幻燈片演示，可在我們的網站上獲取。我們希望在幾週內提交我們的 10-Q 報告。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and outside of the firm's control and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. For a discussion of some of the risks that could affect results, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K. We'll also refer to certain non-GAAP measures. And you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the Shareholders page of our website.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是不確定的並且不在公司的控制範圍內，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何義務。有關可能影響結果的一些風險的討論，請參閱我們的 10-K 的風險因素部分。我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 措施。你會在我們網站股東頁面上的新聞稿中找到對賬。

Also, note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent.

另請注意，本次電話會議的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買任何 Blackstone 基金權益的要約邀請。此音頻廣播是 Blackstone 受版權保護的材料，未經同意不得複制。

On results, we reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $211 million. Distributable earnings were $1.2 billion or $0.97 per common share. And we declared a dividend of $0.82 per share, which will be paid to holders of record as of May 1.

在結果方面，我們報告本季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 2.11 億美元。可分配收益為 12 億美元或每股普通股 0.97 美元。我們宣布派發每股 0.82 美元的股息，並將支付給截至 5 月 1 日在冊的股東。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Weston, and good morning, and thank you for joining our call. First quarter of 2023 represented a turbulent period for markets, tightening financial conditions and growing concerns of a recession while the S&P 500 posted gains that were concentrated in just a handful of large tech companies.

謝謝韋斯頓，早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。 2023 年第一季度是市場動盪時期，金融環境收緊，經濟衰退擔憂加劇，而標準普爾 500 指數的漲幅集中在少數幾家大型科技公司。

Meanwhile, the median stock in the U.S. was flat for the quarter and is down 35% from recent peak levels. Capital markets activity remains muted, IPOs and M&A activity down 50% to 60% year-over-year. To combat inflation, the Fed has increased the Fed funds rate by 475 basis points just in 1 year, representing the largest increase since 1980.

與此同時，美國本季度的股票中值持平，較近期峰值水平下降了 35%。資本市場活動依然低迷，IPO 和併購活動同比下降 50% 至 60%。為對抗通脹，美聯儲僅在一年內就將聯邦基金利率上調了475個基點，這是自1980年以來的最大漲幅。

While there is not widespread distress in the real economy, this tightening campaign has led to significant challenges for investors, along with unintended consequences, which we saw with U.K. pensions last summer, more recently in the U.S. and European banking systems. These challenges once again highlighted the exceptional strength and stability of Blackstone.

雖然實體經濟並未普遍陷入困境，但這種緊縮行動給投資者帶來了重大挑戰，並帶來了意想不到的後果，我們在去年夏天的英國養老金中看到了這種情況，最近在美國和歐洲的銀行系統中也看到了這種情況。這些挑戰再次凸顯了 Blackstone 非凡的實力和穩定性。

Our clients and counterparties have learned there is inherent safety in dealing with us. We don't operate with the risk profile of financial firms that have fallen into trouble, almost always due to the combination of a highly leveraged balance sheet and a mismatch of assets and liabilities. At Blackstone, we have neither.

我們的客戶和交易對手已經了解到與我們打交道具有內在的安全性。我們不會按照陷入困境的金融公司的風險狀況進行操作，這幾乎總是由於高槓桿資產負債表和資產負債不匹配的結合。在 Blackstone，我們兩者都沒有。

We are an asset-light manager of third-party capital distributed across hundreds of segregated investment vehicles. Our firm has minimal net debt and no insurance liabilities. We don't take deposits. I'll say that one again. We don't take deposits. The vast majority of AUM is under long-term contracts or in perpetual strategies.

我們是分佈在數百個獨立投資工具中的第三方資本的輕資產管理者。我們公司的淨債務很少，也沒有保險責任。我們不接受存款。我再說一遍。我們不接受存款。絕大多數資產管理規模都處於長期合同或永續戰略之下。

In our funds, we seek to align the time horizon of our investments with the duration of the capital, which positions us to not be forced sellers in difficult markets. This is true of our semi-liquid vehicles as well such as BREIT, which invest in longer-term assets. We designed this vehicle at its formation in 2017 with predetermined limits for potential repurchases in order to be prepared for adverse market conditions, creating a level of safety so that it can continue to deliver strong outperformance over the long term as it has done historically.

在我們的基金中，我們力求使我們的投資時間範圍與資本的期限保持一致，這使我們不會在困難的市場中被迫出售。我們的半流動性工具以及投資於長期資產的 BREIT 也是如此。我們在 2017 年成立時設計了這款工具，為潛在回購設定了預定限制，以便為不利的市場條件做好準備，創造一定程度的安全性，使其能夠像歷史上那樣在長期內繼續提供強勁的表現。

The safety of Blackstone's approach extends to the way we invest. One of our core values is to avoid losing our customers' money. Of course, we also seek to significantly outperform benchmarks over time as everyone knows we have. We've launched nearly 90 drawdown funds in our history, comprising approximately $500 billion of aggregate commitments, which almost all, 98% of them, generated gains for investors despite adverse investment environments during the lives at some point of most of these funds.

Blackstone 方法的安全性延伸到我們的投資方式。我們的核心價值觀之一是避免損失客戶的錢。當然，正如眾所周知的那樣，我們也力求隨著時間的推移顯著超越基準。在我們的歷史上，我們已經推出了近 90 支提款基金，包括約 5000 億美元的總承諾，儘管這些基金中的大多數在生命週期的某個時刻處於不利的投資環境中，但幾乎所有這些基金（其中 98%）都為投資者帶來了收益。

We have an extremely rigorous process for evaluating risk with an investment committee framework designed to minimize the prospect of losses and ensure consistency of judgment. And our global scale and reach give us deep insights into what's happening in the real economy, which inform how we position the firm and our portfolio ahead of changing conditions.

我們有一個極其嚴格的風險評估流程，其投資委員會框架旨在最大限度地減少損失的可能性並確保判斷的一致性。我們的全球規模和影響力使我們能夠深入了解實體經濟中正在發生的事情，這有助於我們在不斷變化的情況下如何定位公司和我們的投資組合。

To paraphrase a quote often attributed to the hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, "You have to skate to where the puck is going, not to where it is." At Blackstone, we follow the same approach. In real estate, an area of heightened external focus by the media and investors recently, our equity business has experienced realized losses in only 1% over 30 years, a truly remarkable result.

套用曲棍球巨星韋恩·格雷茨基 (Wayne Gretzky) 的一句名言：“你必須滑向冰球要去的地方，而不是它所在的地方。”在 Blackstone，我們遵循相同的方法。在最近媒體和投資者高度關注的房地產領域，我們的股權業務在過去 30 年中實現的虧損僅為 1%，這是一個非常了不起的成績。

This includes during the global financial crisis, a period which saw most of our competitors collapse or exit the market. In contrast, we bought the right assets and put in place the right capital structures, more than doubling investor capital in that vintage of funds. We emerged from the crisis stronger and believe that this cycle will have a similar outcome.

這包括在全球金融危機期間，我們的大多數競爭對手都倒閉或退出市場。相比之下，我們購買了正確的資產並建立了正確的資本結構，使該期基金的投資者資本增加了一倍以上。我們從危機中走出來變得更加強大，並相信這個週期將產生類似的結果。

Today, investor sentiment toward real estate has been quite negative again, largely due to the pressures, as Jon explained on TV today, in the U.S. office market. Vacancies in offices have reached all-time-high levels. And owners of many of these assets may be unable to extend financing in a more constrained capital environment.

今天，投資者對房地產的情緒再次變得非常消極，這主要是由於喬恩今天在電視上解釋的美國寫字樓市場的壓力。辦公室的空缺率已達到歷史最高水平。許多此類資產的所有者可能無法在更加受限的資本環境中提供融資。

At Blackstone, we have minimal exposure to traditional U.S. office, having reduced our holdings from over 60% in the real estate equity portfolio at the time of our IPO in 2007 to less than 2% today. We instead emphasized sectors that are doing very well, including logistics, which now comprises 40% of the portfolio, up from 0 in 2007.

在 Blackstone，我們對傳統美國辦公室的敞口最小，我們在房地產股票投資組合中的持股比例從 2007 年首次公開募股時的 60% 以上減少到如今的不到 2%。相反，我們強調表現出色的行業，包括物流，該行業現在佔投資組合的 40%，高於 2007 年的 0%。

Our real estate team has done a remarkable job of portfolio construction. In fact, I would call it some of Blackstone's finest work. Our positioning is the reason that BREIT, for example, continues to generate strong growth in cash flows, up an estimated 9% year-over-year in the first quarter despite market headwinds. We expect our investors to have a highly differentiated experience as a result as they have throughout our history.

我們的房地產團隊在投資組合建設方面做得非常出色。事實上，我會稱它為 Blackstone 最優秀的作品之一。例如，我們的定位是 BREIT 繼續產生強勁現金流增長的原因，儘管市場逆風，但第一季度現金流量估計同比增長 9%。我們希望我們的投資者能夠像他們在我們的整個歷史中一樣擁有高度差異化的體驗。

In credit, higher interest rates and much higher available yields have led to significantly more investor capital being allocated to this area. Jon will expand on this opportunity for Blackstone. Simultaneously, there's an increased focus on the potential for higher market defaults in an economic turndown. Blackstone's credit business, as with real estate, has delivered excess returns over long periods of time while protecting the downside.

在信貸領域，更高的利率和更高的可用收益率導致更多的投資者資本被分配到這一領域。 Jon 將為 Blackstone 擴展這個機會。同時，人們越來越關注經濟低迷時期市場違約率上升的可能性。與房地產一樣，黑石集團的信貸業務在長期內提供了超額回報，同時保護了下行空間。

For example, we are the largest manager of leveraged loans in the world. And our historic annual default rate in the U.S. is less than 1%. This record and our standard of care should provide comfort to investors who are new to this asset class. Private credit disperses risk outside the government backstop banking sector with capital typically raised in discrete long-term funds rather than a funding model that is reliant on deposits, which demand instant liquidity.

例如，我們是世界上最大的槓桿貸款管理公司。我們在美國歷史上的年度違約率低於 1%。這一記錄和我們的謹慎標準應該會讓新接觸這一資產類別的投資者感到安慰。私人信貸將風險分散到政府支持的銀行業之外，通常通過離散的長期基金籌集資金，而不是依賴於需要即時流動性的存款的融資模式。

This approach to credit extension makes the system safer and also supports the economy in challenging times. Our limited partners recognize Blackstone as a safe institution which to allocate their capital, even as the world becomes more complex, in fact, especially so. We have learned at the best time to put money to work is in a risk-off world, when sentiment becomes negative.

這種信貸擴展方法使系統更安全，並在充滿挑戰的時期支持經濟。我們的有限合夥人認為 Blackstone 是一個安全的機構，可以分配他們的資本，即使世界變得更加複雜，事實上，尤其如此。我們了解到，在市場情緒變得消極時，投資資金的最佳時機是在避險世界中。

Recent stress in the banking system has led to heightened levels of negativity, along with diminished availability of credit, which should provide additional opportunity for us, given the firm's scale, available capital in both the credit and equity areas. Overall, our LPs have entrusted us with an unprecedented $194 billion of dry powder ahead of what we believe could be a historic opportunity for deployment.

最近銀行系統的壓力導致消極情緒加劇，信貸供應減少，鑑於公司的規模、信貸和股權領域的可用資本，這應該為我們提供更多機會。總的來說，在我們認為可能是一個歷史性的部署機會之前，我們的 LPs 已經委託給我們前所未有的 1940 億美元的干火藥。

One final note for me. Earlier this week, S&P Dow Jones updated the eligibility rules for their flagship indices to once again include companies with multiple share classes. This important development follows a consultation period in which they engaged a broad universe of market constituents. Blackstone is, by far, the largest company by market cap not included in the S&P 500 today. We are hopeful that this development paves the way for our inclusion, which would be very positive for our shareholders.

給我的最後一點。本週早些時候，標準普爾道瓊斯更新了其旗艦指數的資格規則，再次將擁有多個股票類別的公司納入其中。這一重要發展是在諮詢期之後進行的，在諮詢期中，他們與廣泛的市場成分進行了接觸。到目前為止，黑石集團是市值最大的公司，目前未被納入標準普爾 500 指數。我們希望這一發展為我們的加入鋪平道路，這對我們的股東來說將是非常積極的。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jon.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬恩。

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Despite the challenges of the current environment, Blackstone's value proposition for customers and shareholders is stronger than ever. I'll discuss the key elements that underpin this confidence.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家，早安。儘管當前環境充滿挑戰，但 Blackstone 對客戶和股東的價值主張比以往任何時候都更加強大。我將討論支撐這種信心的關鍵因素。

First, our investment performance remains highly differentiated, as it has been for nearly 4 decades. This is the most important determinant of our success and is what allows us to attract more capital. We've delivered 15% net returns annually in corporate private equity, opportunistic real estate and secondaries; 12% in tactical opportunities; and 10% in credit. In Q1, our funds protected investor capital against the volatile market backdrop, which Michael will discuss. Over the past 12 months, nearly all our flagship strategies again meaningfully outperformed the relevant public indices.

首先，我們的投資業績仍然高度差異化，近 4 年來一直如此。這是我們成功的最重要決定因素，也是我們吸引更多資本的原因。我們在企業私募股權、機會型房地產和二級市場的年淨回報率達到 15%； 12% 的戰術機會；和 10% 的信貸。在第一季度，我們的基金保護了投資者資本免受市場波動的影響，邁克爾將對此進行討論。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們幾乎所有的旗艦策略再次顯著跑贏相關公開指數。

Second, our strong returns are the direct result of the way we've deployed capital and where we are very well positioned for the current environment. As we've said before, where you invest matters. Nowhere is that more apparent than in real estate, where 83% of the portfolio is in our high-conviction sectors, including logistics, rental housing, hotels, data centers and life science office. We're seeing a massive diversion in performance in these areas compared to more challenged parts of the real estate market.

其次，我們強勁的回報是我們部署資本的方式以及我們在當前環境中處於非常有利位置的直接結果。正如我們之前所說，您在哪裡投資很重要。沒有比房地產更明顯的了，其中 83% 的投資組合位於我們高度信任的行業，包括物流、出租房屋、酒店、數據中心和生命科學辦公室。與房地產市場更具挑戰性的部分相比，我們看到這些領域的表現發生了巨大的變化。

In logistics, the largest exposure in our real estate portfolio and at the firm overall, we estimate the mark-to-market for our warehouse rents is approximately 50% in the United States, 30% in the U.K. and 100% in Canada. While at the same time, market rents are generally growing at double-digit rates.

在物流方面，我們的房地產投資組合和整個公司的風險敞口最大，我們估計我們的倉庫租金按市值計價在美國約為 50%，在英國約為 30%，在加拿大約為 100%。與此同時，市場租金普遍以兩位數的速度增長。

In rental housing, the second-largest concentration in our real estate portfolio, rents have moderated in our U.S. apartment buildings. But we're still seeing re-leasing spreads of approximately 4% and cash flow growth that's materially higher while our student and other housing assets are showing even greater strength.

在我們房地產投資組合中第二大集中的出租房屋中，我們美國公寓樓的租金有所下降。但我們仍然看到約 4% 的轉租利差和現金流增長顯著提高，而我們的學生和其他住房資產顯示出更大的實力。

At the same time, the pullback in capital markets is further constraining the new supply pipeline for most types of real estate, which is likely to intensify as regional banks provide a meaningful portion of U.S. construction lending. This is quite positive for real estate over time.

與此同時，資本市場的回落進一步限制了大多數類型房地產的新供應渠道，隨著區域銀行提供相當一部分美國建築貸款，這種情況可能會加劇。隨著時間的推移，這對房地產來說是相當積極的。

Aside from the supply-demand dynamics, the single most important driver for real estate valuations is the level of the 10-year treasury. While rising rates have been a significant headwind for real estate valuations recently, we've seen a reversal with the 10-year yield down 65 basis points from its high last year.

除了供需動態，房地產估值最重要的驅動因素是 10 年期國債水平。雖然最近利率上升對房地產估值構成重大不利因素，但我們看到了逆轉，10 年期國債收益率從去年的高點下跌了 65 個基點。

In corporate private equity, our operating companies are showing continued strong momentum. Revenues grew 13% in Q1, reflecting our timely emphasis on travel, leisure and energy transition companies. Meanwhile, we're seeing indications that cost pressures have peaked. While the broader economy remains resilient, we do anticipate a deceleration, given the weight of the Fed's actions and pressure on the banking system. Our companies overall are well positioned to navigate such an environment.

在企業私募股權方面，我們的運營公司顯示出持續強勁的勢頭。第一季度收入增長 13%，反映出我們及時關注旅遊、休閒和能源轉型公司。與此同時，我們看到成本壓力已經見頂的跡象。雖然整體經濟仍保持彈性，但考慮到美聯儲行動的重要性和對銀行系統的壓力，我們確實預計經濟會減速。我們的公司總體上處於有利地位，可以駕馭這樣的環境。

In credit, over 90% of our noninsurance portfolio is floating rate. And fundamentals remain healthy with a default rate of less than 1% across our non-investment-grade loans. Finally, BAAM's weightings in structured credit and quant strategies helped drive positive performance once again in Q1 with much less volatility than broader markets. In the last 2-plus years since we brought in a new investment leadership team, BAAM has beaten the typical 60-40 portfolio by nearly 1,500 basis points, remarkable outperformance in liquid markets.

在信貸方面，我們 90% 以上的非保險組合採用浮動利率。我們的非投資級貸款的違約率低於 1%，基本面保持健康。最後，BAAM 在結構性信貸和量化策略中的權重有助於在第一季度再次推動積極表現，波動性遠低於大盤。自從我們引入新的投資領導團隊以來的過去 2 年多時間裡，BAAM 以近 1,500 個基點的優勢擊敗了典型的 60-40 投資組合，在流動性市場中表現出色。

Third, as a result of our performance, our customers are entrusting us with more capital. The fundraising environment has become more challenging. But the breadth of our firm allows us to continue to raise scale capital, including over $40 billion in the first quarter and $217 billion over the last 12 months. We're seeing the greatest demand today for private credit solutions, given higher interest rates and wider spreads.

第三，由於我們的表現，我們的客戶委託我們提供更多資金。籌款環境變得更具挑戰性。但我們公司的廣度使我們能夠繼續籌集規模資本，包括第一季度超過 400 億美元和過去 12 個月的 2170 億美元。鑑於更高的利率和更大的利差，我們看到當今對私人信貸解決方案的需求最大。

Coupled with the pullback in regional bank activity, this is a golden moment for our credit, real estate credit and insurance solutions teams, which accounted for 60% of the firm's inflows in Q1. Our 4 major insurance clients allocated an additional $8 billion to us in the first quarter. And we expect a strong pace of inflows from them throughout the year.

加上區域銀行活動的回落，這對我們的信貸、房地產信貸和保險解決方案團隊來說是一個黃金時刻，這些團隊占公司第一季度資金流入的 60%。我們的 4 大保險客戶在第一季度向我們額外分配了 80 億美元。我們預計全年會有強勁的資金流入。

In the case of Resolution, the $3 billion external fundraise is now fully committed and the repositioning of their asset base is underway. We also launched a new U.S. direct lending product in Q1 for both institutional and insurance clients, targeting $10 billion for this first vintage. We've raised nearly $6 billion to date for our green energy-oriented private credit vehicle and expect to hit the $7 billion cap in June.

就 Resolution 而言，30 億美元的外部籌資現已全部投入，其資產基礎的重新定位正在進行中。我們還在第一季度為機構和保險客戶推出了一種新的美國直接貸款產品，第一年的目標是 100 億美元。迄今為止，我們已經為面向綠色能源的私人信貸工具籌集了近 60 億美元，預計將在 6 月達到 70 億美元的上限。

Our new real estate debt vehicle has strong initial momentum with $3.5 billion of commitments so far. And in private wealth, BCRED's monthly subscriptions on April 1 reached their highest level since October at nearly $500 million. As one of the largest private direct lenders in a world of growing capital constraints, we see this as an extremely favorable environment for deployment.

我們新的房地產債務工具初始勢頭強勁，迄今已承諾 35 億美元。而在私人財富方面，4 月 1 日 BCRED 的月度訂閱量達到了 10 月以來的最高水平，接近 5 億美元。作為資本約束不斷增加的世界中最大的私人直接貸款人之一，我們認為這是一個極其有利的部署環境。

More broadly, as regional banks experience outflows of deposits, we are seeing real-time opportunities to partner with them at scale, utilizing our insurance capital in areas like auto finance, home improvement lending and equipment finance. We expect private credit and insurance to grow significantly from here.

更廣泛地說，隨著區域性銀行經歷存款外流，我們看到了與他們大規模合作的實時機會，將我們的保險資金用於汽車金融、家居裝修貸款和設備融資等領域。我們預計私人信貸和保險業將從這裡顯著增長。

Moving to our private wealth platform, which overall had a solid first quarter against a difficult backdrop. We raised $8.1 billion in the channel, including $4.5 billion from the University of California. We're seeing stabilization in BREIT's repurchase trends with requests down 16% in March compared to the January peak. But obviously, it depends in the near term on market conditions. We remain confident in the reacceleration of growth in this channel once volatility recedes, given the exceptional positioning and performance of our products.

轉到我們的私人財富平台，在困難的背景下，該平台總體上在第一季度表現穩定。我們通過該渠道籌集了 81 億美元，其中包括來自加州大學的 45 億美元。我們看到 BREIT 的回購趨勢趨於穩定，與 1 月份的峰值相比，3 月份的回購請求下降了 16%。但顯然，這在短期內取決於市場狀況。鑑於我們產品的卓越定位和性能，一旦波動性消退，我們對這一渠道的增長重新加速充滿信心。

Turning to our drawdown fund business. A few weeks ago, we held the final close for our global real estate flagship, which reached $30.4 billion, the largest private equity or real estate private equity fund ever raised. We also commenced fundraising for the next vintage of our European strategy, targeting a similar amount as the prior fund, which was EUR 9.5 billion of third-party capital, with the first close expected this summer.

轉向我們的提款基金業務。幾週前，我們舉行了全球房地產旗艦基金的最後收盤，募集資金達到 304 億美元，是有史以來募集資金規模最大的私募股權或房地產私募股權基金。我們還開始為我們歐洲戰略的下一個年份籌款，目標是與前一個基金相似的數額，即 95 億歐元的第三方資本，預計今年夏天完成第一次募集。

In corporate private equity, we've raised $15.5 billion to date for our latest flagship with additional closings expected in the second quarter. The environment has remained difficult. But we continue to target a vehicle of substantially similar size as the prior fund. Overall, we are affirming our $150 billion target with approximately 70% raised to date. We anticipate having substantially achieved this by early next year.

在企業私募股權方面，我們最新的旗艦產品迄今已籌集了 155 億美元，預計第二季度還會有更多交易完成。環境依然艱難。但我們繼續瞄準與先前基金規模基本相似的工具。總體而言，我們確認了 1500 億美元的目標，迄今為止已籌集了約 70%。我們預計到明年初將基本實現這一目標。

Fourth, our latest fundraising cycle has positioned us very well for the current environment. We have nearly $200 billion of dry powder to take advantage of dislocation. With stock markets under pressure, we did agree to privatize two public companies in an otherwise muted deployment quarter, including a leading provider of events management software and a logistics REIT in the U.K. We also continued our push into the energy transition space with a commitment to acquire a portfolio of wind and solar assets through our infrastructure portfolio company, Invenergy.

第四，我們最近的籌款週期使我們非常適合當前環境。我們有近 2000 億美元的干火藥可以利用錯位。在股市面臨壓力的情況下，我們確實同意在原本平靜的部署季度將兩家上市公司私有化，其中包括英國一家領先的活動管理軟件供應商和一家物流房地產投資信託基金。我們還繼續推進能源轉型領域，並承諾通過我們的基礎設施投資組合公司 Invenergy 收購風能和太陽能資產組合。

Finally, we remain true to our asset-light, brand-heavy strategy, relying on our people and track record to grow. We continue to operate with minimal net debt and no insurance liabilities. Over the past 5 years, we've generated $22 billion of distributable earnings and have paid out 100% of these earnings through dividends and buybacks. Our share count has remained flat over this period despite AUM more than doubling. There are a few firms in the world with such a shareholder-friendly approach to returning capital to investors. Our unleveraged capital-light model is especially valuable in a time like this.

最後，我們仍然堅持我們的輕資產、重品牌戰略，依靠我們的員工和業績記錄實現增長。我們繼續以最少的淨債務和無保險責任經營。在過去 5 年中，我們產生了 220 億美元的可分配收益，並通過股息和回購支付了這些收益的 100%。儘管 AUM 增加了一倍以上，但我們的股票數量在此期間保持不變。世界上有幾家公司採用這種對股東友好的方式將資本返還給投資者。我們的無槓桿輕資本模式在這樣的時代特別有價值。

In closing, despite the market's near-term challenges, we remain focused on being long-term investors, patient with our existing assets and lightning quick as opportunities emerge. And our model allows us to do both.

最後，儘管市場近期面臨挑戰，但我們仍然專注於成為長期投資者，對我們現有的資產保持耐心，並在機會出現時迅速行動。而我們的模型允許我們做到這兩點。

With that, I will turn things over to Michael.

有了這個，我會把事情交給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. The firm's first quarter results reflected steady performance against a challenging external operating environment, our funds protected capital in volatile markets, and we continue to expand the foundation of the firm's earnings power across multiple drivers of growth. I'll discuss each of these areas in more detail.

謝謝，喬恩，大家早上好。公司第一季度的業績反映了在充滿挑戰的外部經營環境下的穩定表現，我們的資金在動蕩的市場中保護了資本，我們繼續通過多種增長驅動力擴大公司盈利能力的基礎。我將更詳細地討論這些領域中的每一個。

Starting with results. The unique breadth of our platform and the power of our brand have led to continued strong momentum across inflows, AUM and management fees. Total AUM rose 8% year-over-year to $991 billion with $217 billion of inflows over the last 12 months. This is through a period in which the S&P 500 declined 8% and the public REIT index was down nearly 20%. Fee-earning AUM also increased 8%, driving base management fees up 13% year-over-year to a record $1.6 billion in Q1, marking the 53rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

從結果開始。我們平台的獨特廣度和我們品牌的力量導致資金流入、資產管理規模和管理費方面持續強勁勢頭。總資產管理規模同比增長 8% 至 9910 億美元，過去 12 個月流入 2170 億美元。在此期間，標準普爾 500 指數下跌 8%，公共房地產投資信託指數下跌近 20%。收取費用的 AUM 也增長了 8%，推動基礎管理費在第一季度同比增長 13%，達到創紀錄的 16 億美元，這是連續第 53 個季度實現同比增長。

Fee-related earnings were $1 billion in the quarter or $0.86 per share, stable with Q4, supported by the growth in management fees and the firm's strong margin position. The year-over-year FRE comparison was affected by a decline in fee-related performance revenues. As we highlighted previously, we expect these revenues to accelerate in the second half of this year. With respect to margins, FRE margin for the trailing 12 months expanded 80 basis points from the prior year comparable period to 57.4%, reflective of the firm's disciplined focus on managing expenses in a difficult environment.

本季度與費用相關的收益為 10 億美元或每股 0.86 美元，與第四季度持平，這得益於管理費用的增長和公司強勁的利潤率。同比 FRE 比較受到與費用相關的績效收入下降的影響。正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們預計這些收入將在今年下半年加速增長。在利潤率方面，過去 12 個月的 FRE 利潤率比上年同期擴大了 80 個基點，達到 57.4%，反映出公司在困難環境中嚴格專注於管理費用。

Distributable earnings were $1.2 billion in the first quarter or $0.97 per share again, largely stable with Q4. Net realizations declined year-over-year as last year's market turbulence had the effect of reducing the realization of pipeline entering 2023. Notwithstanding these headwinds, the firm's ability to generate approximately $1 per share of DEs again in Q1, a level met or exceeded now for 7 straight quarters, illustrates the elevation in earnings power that has been underway at Blackstone.

第一季度可分配收益為 12 億美元或每股 0.97 美元，與第四季度基本持平。淨實現同比下降，因為去年的市場動盪導致進入 2023 年的管道實現減少。儘管存在這些不利因素，該公司在第一季度再次產生約每股 1 美元的 DE 的能力，現在達到或超過了這一水平連續 7 個季度，說明了 Blackstone 盈利能力的提升。

In terms of realizations, during the quarter, we took advantage of a favorable window of market liquidity before the SVP-related turbulence to sell $3 billion of public stock across a number of portfolio companies in private equity at an aggregate multiple of investor capital approximately 3x. These sales included the full exit of our stake in Sona Comstar, a company we transformed from a traditional auto part supplier to India's largest electric vehicle components provider.

在實現方面，在本季度，我們利用 SVP 相關動蕩之前的有利市場流動性窗口，以投資者資本的總倍數約 3 倍的價格出售了多家私募投資組合公司的 30 億美元公共股票.這些出售包括我們完全退出 Sona Comstar 的股份，我們將這家公司從傳統的汽車零部件供應商轉變為印度最大的電動汽車零部件供應商。

Including prior sales, we generated $1.4 billion of gains on this investment at 11x our LP's money. While the environment for realizations is likely to remain challenged in the near term, our long-term fund structures allow us to benefit from patience. We can focus on building value while we wait for market conditions to improve.

包括之前的銷售額，我們以 LP 資金的 11 倍從這項投資中獲得了 14 億美元的收益。雖然實現環境在短期內可能仍然充滿挑戰，但我們的長期基金結構使我們能夠從耐心中獲益。在等待市場狀況改善的同時，我們可以專注於創造價值。

In the meantime, the firm's performance revenue potential continues to grow. Performance revenue-eligible AUM in the ground is nearly $500 billion at quarter end. Net accrued performance revenue on the balance sheet, the firm's store value, stands at $6.4 billion or $5.27 per share. While down from a record level in Q1 of last year, primarily due to realizations, the receivable is still up 22% in 2 years and has nearly tripled in 3 years. We hold $16 billion of public stock in our private equity and real estate drawdown funds. When markets ultimately stabilize, we are well positioned for an acceleration in realizations.

與此同時，該公司的業績收入潛力繼續增長。截至季度末，符合績效收入條件的 AUM 接近 5000 億美元。資產負債表上的淨應計績效收入，即公司的商店價值，為 64 億美元或每股 5.27 美元。雖然低於去年第一季度的創紀錄水平，主要是由於變現，但應收賬款在 2 年內仍增長了 22%，並且在 3 年內增長了近兩倍。我們在私募股權和房地產提款基金中持有 160 億美元的公共股票。當市場最終趨於穩定時，我們已準備好加速實現。

Turning to investment performance. First quarter corporate private equity funds appreciated 2.8%. And overall, our portfolio of companies are reporting strong revenue growth and resilient margins. In real estate, the BREP opportunistic buffer was largely stable in the quarter while the Core+ funds depreciated 1.6%. We are seeing sustained strength in our key sectors in terms of cash flow growth, offset in Q1 by sharp write-downs in our remaining traditional office portfolio, which we had already significantly reduced over a period of (inaudible) quarters.

轉向投資業績。第一季度企業私募股權基金升值2.8%。總的來說，我們的公司組合報告了強勁的收入增長和彈性利潤率。在房地產方面，BREP 機會主義緩沖在本季度基本穩定，而 Core+ 基金貶值 1.6%。我們看到我們的關鍵部門在現金流增長方面持續強勁，第一季度被我們剩餘的傳統辦公室投資組合的大幅減記所抵消，我們已經在一段時間內（聽不清）季度大幅減少。

Within Core+, BREIT's Class I shares reported a modest negative net return of 0.5%. However, BREIT's return was a positive 0.6%, excluding the effect of its interest rate hedge, which was impacted by the dramatic decline in the 10-year treasuries. The hedge overall has generated substantial gains for investors, locking in low-cost fixed rate debt ahead of last year's rise in interest rates. Since inception, BREIT has delivered net returns of approximately 12% per year or nearly 3x the public REIT index.

在 Core+ 中，BREIT 的 I 類股票報告了 0.5% 的適度負淨回報。然而，BREIT 的回報率為 0.6%，不包括其利率對沖的影響，該影響受到 10 年期國債大幅下跌的影響。整體對沖為投資者帶來了可觀的收益，在去年利率上升之前鎖定了低成本的固定利率債務。自成立以來，BREIT 每年的淨回報率約為 12%，是公開 REIT 指數的近 3 倍。

In credit, private and liquid credit strategies appreciated 3.4% and 3%, respectively, in the first quarter, reflective of the healthy portfolio generating attractive current income. And in BAAM, the BPS gross composite return was 0.9% in Q1, the 12th quarter in a row of positive performance.

在信貸方面，私人和流動性信貸策略在第一季度分別上漲了 3.4% 和 3%，反映出健康的投資組合產生了有吸引力的當前收入。在 BAAM，BPS 第一季度的綜合總回報率為 0.9%，這是連續第 12 個季度表現良好。

Moving to the outlook. We remain highly confident in the multiyear expansion of the firm's earnings power and FRE with several embedded growth drivers. First, in our drawdown fund business, we continue to advance toward our $150 billion target across 18 months. Second, our perpetual capital platform continues to expand with AUM up 13% year-over-year to $381 billion, including more than 30% growth in our BIP infrastructure and BCRED strategies.

轉向前景。我們對公司的盈利能力和 FRE 的多年擴張充滿信心，並具有幾個內在的增長動力。首先，在我們的提款基金業務中，我們繼續在 18 個月內朝著 1500 億美元的目標前進。其次，我們的永久資本平台繼續擴大，AUM 同比增長 13% 至 3810 億美元，其中包括我們的 BIP 基礎設施和 BCRED 戰略增長超過 30%。

Third, in the insurance area, AUM for our dedicated platform has reached nearly $170 billion, up $9 billion sequentially from Q4, driven by robust inflows from our major clients. 2023 in total, we expect inflows of $25 billion to $30 billion from these clients. We anticipate substantial, largely contractual growth for our insurance platform in the years ahead. To summarize, the firm has significant momentum with multiple engines driving us forward.

第三，在保險領域，我們專用平台的資產管理規模已達到近 1700 億美元，較第四季度環比增長 90 億美元，這主要得益於我們主要客戶的強勁資金流入。到 2023 年，我們預計這些客戶的總流入量將達到 250 億至 300 億美元。我們預計未來幾年我們的保險平台將出現實質性的、主要是合同增長。總而言之，該公司擁有強大的動力，多個引擎推動我們前進。

In closing, we are very optimistic about the future of Blackstone. Our business model is designed to protect us in difficult times. And we have greater investment firepower than ever before. We remain totally focused on delivering for our investors.

最後，我們對 Blackstone 的未來非常樂觀。我們的商業模式旨在在困難時期保護我們。而且我們的投資火力比以往任何時候都大。我們仍然完全專注於為我們的投資者提供服務。

With that, we thank you for joining the call. I would like to open up now to questions.

有了這個，我們感謝您加入電話會議。我想現在開放的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

So I'm curious, you mentioned the 20% AUM thereabouts that you're sitting on almost $200 billion. And in the comments, you both said ahead of what we believe will be an attractive environment for deployment. Are there any leading indicators that would give us any confidence that it's coming in the near term? I know it's a lot. I know it's eventually going to happen. But what are you looking at to see closing of bid-ask spreads? Or is it a funding environment thing? Just curious to get more color on that.

所以我很好奇，你提到了你坐擁近 2000 億美元的 20% AUM。在評論中，你們都說我們認為這將是一個有吸引力的部署環境。是否有任何領先指標可以讓我們相信它會在短期內出現？我知道很多。我知道這最終會發生。但是你在看什麼來觀察買賣價差的收盤呢？還是資金環境的問題？只是想在上面塗上更多顏色。

Glenn, I think it's a good question. I think the answer is not one size fits all. I think what we will see is more activity on the private credit insurance side because there, because of the tightness in the banking system, I think deployment there should accelerate. In our secondaries business, we've begun to see transaction activity pick up. In fact, in the first quarter, that was up, I think, the highest level since the fourth quarter of '21. So we are seeing some folks who are looking for liquidity to get below sort of their target allocation levels.

格倫，我認為這是個好問題。我認為答案並非一刀切。我認為我們將看到私人信用保險方面的更多活動，因為在那裡，由於銀行系統的緊張，我認為那裡的部署應該會加速。在我們的二級業務中，我們已經開始看到交易活動回升。事實上，在第一季度，我認為這是自 21 年第四季度以來的最高水平。因此，我們看到一些人正在尋找流動性以低於其目標配置水平。

I do think for private equity -- real estate, private equity, those things take a little bit of time. There tends to be a need for a little more sort of confidence in markets, a little more stability. And I think that will be a little while in the making. A lot of it does tie the sentiment overall. Obviously as inflation comes down, I think that's a very important indicator to give markets confidence. Right now, people are concerned about the banking system. They're concerned about a slowdown. And that doesn't tend to lead to a lot of transaction activity. So I think it will happen in waves in different segments. It ultimately will happen, it always does. But it's hard to point to any one thing as we sit here today.

我確實認為對於私募股權——房地產、私募股權，這些事情需要一點時間。人們往往需要對市場多一點信心，多一點穩定性。我認為這將需要一段時間。其中很多確實與整體情緒有關。顯然，隨著通脹下降，我認為這是給市場信心的一個非常重要的指標。現在，人們關心的是銀行系統。他們擔心經濟放緩。而且這不會導致大量的交易活動。所以我認為它會在不同的細分市場中發生。它最終會發生，它總是會發生。但是，當我們今天坐在這裡時，很難指出任何一件事。

We'll take our next question from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler 的下一個問題。

So if you add the $5 billion of real estate debt SMAs plus the contribution from credit, it looks like the insurance channel probably drove about $10 billion in net flows or about 1/4 of the total this quarter. So I'm wondering, did I get that right? And then extending this thought from here, we wanted your perspective on the insurance channel's ability to generate outsized outflows over the next year before we see markets recover and then flows in the retail and institutional channels reaccelerate.

因此，如果將 50 億美元的房地產債務 SMA 加上信貸的貢獻，看起來保險渠道可能推動了約 100 億美元的淨流量，約佔本季度總流量的 1/4。所以我想知道，我做對了嗎？然後從這裡擴展這個想法，我們希望您對保險渠道在明年產生大量資金流出的能力的看法，然後我們看到市場復甦，然後零售和機構渠道的流量重新加速。

So I think the number is a little over $8 billion. But you're close, Craig. From insurance, I think the nice thing about insurance, as Michael pointed out, is we have these contractual relationships with large clients, notably with Corebridge. We're just starting to ramp up the flows from the Resolution partnership we have. There are strong inflows at Fidelity & Guaranty as they grow their business. And all of that gives us a lot of confidence in terms of the outlook from our major clients.

所以我認為這個數字略高於 80 億美元。但你很接近，克雷格。從保險的角度來看，正如邁克爾指出的那樣，我認為保險的好處在於我們與大客戶，尤其是 Corebridge 有這些合同關係。我們剛剛開始增加我們擁有的 Resolution 合作夥伴關係的流量。隨著 Fidelity & Guaranty 業務的發展，大量資金流入。所有這些都讓我們對主要客戶的前景充滿信心。

I think additionally, there are others in the space who see what we're able to do in areas like asset-backed finance, corporate direct lending. And they're looking to do some SMAs targeted in areas. And as we get more scale, it creates a bit of a virtuous cycle. And then of course, there are the episodic moments where we find a larger potential customer, we now have four. We also have Everlake as well, the former Allstate Life and Retirement platform. So I think we've got multiple engines.

我認為，此外，該領域還有其他人看到了我們在資產支持金融、企業直接貸款等領域能夠做的事情。他們正在尋找針對特定區域的一些 SMA。隨著我們規模的擴大，它會產生一些良性循環。當然，有時我們會找到更大的潛在客戶，我們現在有四個。我們也有 Everlake，前 Allstate Life and Retirement 平台。所以我認為我們有多個引擎。

We've got this contractual growth that will continue to grow over time and take us up to $250 billion basically on its own. Our clients could find other strategic things to do. We've got these SMA opportunities with insurance companies really around the globe. And then we can find new large-scale clients. And I think that's really the beauty of our model, which is we're not an insurance company, we're an asset manager. And so we can serve multiple clients, just like we do in our institutional business. So I would say our confidence level around the insurance area remains extremely high.

我們已經獲得了這種合同增長，它將隨著時間的推移繼續增長，並且基本上獨自使我們達到 2500 億美元。我們的客戶可以找到其他具有戰略意義的事情要做。我們在全球各地的保險公司都獲得了這些 SMA 機會。然後我們可以找到新的大型客戶。我認為這真的是我們模式的美妙之處，我們不是一家保險公司，我們是一家資產管理公司。因此，我們可以為多個客戶提供服務，就像我們在機構業務中所做的那樣。所以我想說我們對保險領域的信心水平仍然非常高。

We'll take our next question from Adam Beatty with UBS.

我們將接受來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty 的下一個問題。

Just wanted to follow up on the opportunity in private credit, very interesting and attractive. Wanted to get your thoughts on another source of private credit, which has been syndicated lending that's been fairly weak or even totally stuck over recent periods. So how do you see that part of the environment? Is there a recovery in the offering -- in the offing there? And would that affect kind of the growth trajectory you see for private credit at Blackstone?

只是想跟進私人信貸的機會，非常有趣和有吸引力。想听聽您對另一個私人信貸來源的看法，這是最近一段時間相當疲軟甚至完全停滯不前的銀團貸款。那麼你如何看待這部分環境呢？產品是否有恢復 - 在那裡？這會影響您在黑石集團看到的私人信貸增長軌跡嗎？

So the syndicated lending market, its challenges are that there's a lot of volatility in the system. So if you're a bank today and you're generally in the moving business, right, you commit to a non-investment-grade corporate credit, a private equity deal, you're trying to sell that down. But given the volatility, you're going to say to the borrower, "Hey, look, I need a lot of flex in the pricing. I need to be able to gap out the pricing 200, 300 basis points."

因此，銀團貸款市場面臨的挑戰是系統中存在很大的波動性。因此，如果您今天是一家銀行，並且您通常從事搬家業務，對，您承諾提供非投資級公司信貸、私募股權交易，您正試圖將其出售。但考慮到波動性，你會對借款人說，“嘿，聽著，我需要在定價上有很大的彈性。我需要能夠在定價上跳出 200、300 個基點。”

And when there's this kind of volatility, that makes it hard. And as a borrower, putting on our private equity cap, we prefer to do things on a direct basis, where we know we have certainty. At some point, of course, volatility will come down and the syndicated market will become more competitive. But I do think structurally over time, direct lenders have a competitive advantage because they're in the storage business.

當出現這種波動時，事情就會變得很困難。作為藉款人，考慮到我們的私募股權上限，我們更願意在我們知道有把握的情況下直接做事。當然，在某個時候，波動性會下降，銀團市場將變得更具競爭力。但我確實認為，從結構上看，隨著時間的推移，直接貸款人具有競爭優勢，因為他們從事存儲業務。

And I think they will continue to gain more share on newly originated deals, where you've got to make a commitment for a public to private that lasts a long period of time. I think once the borrowers in the marketplace is established, there's not an intermediary who has to take a bunch of near-term credit risk, the syndicated market has a lot of competitive advantages. So I think they both coexist. But I think in the new origination market, more and more of that will move to direct lenders.

而且我認為他們將繼續在新發起的交易中獲得更多份額，在這些交易中，你必須做出持續很長一段時間的公眾對私人的承諾。我認為一旦市場上的借款人建立起來，就沒有中介機構需要承擔大量的短期信用風險，銀團市場具有很多競爭優勢。所以我認為它們是共存的。但我認為在新的發起市場中，越來越多的資金將轉移到直接貸方。

Great perspective, appreciate that.

偉大的觀點，欣賞。

Yes. And I would just point out, we're big players in both. We're the leading investor in CLOs and we're the leading direct lender as well. Sorry, go ahead.

是的。我只想指出，我們在這兩個方面都是大玩家。我們是 CLO 的領先投資者，也是領先的直接貸方。對不起，繼續。

Yes, excellent. Fair enough.

是的，優秀。很公平。

We go next to Mike Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

我們旁邊是 Mike Cyprys 和摩根士丹利。

So a question on investment performance. Blackstone has generated very strong returns historically. But just as you look out over the next decade, just curious to hear your perspective around Blackstone's ability and also the overall private market industry's ability to deliver excess returns over public markets.

所以一個關於投資業績的問題。黑石歷史上產生了非常強勁的回報。但就像您展望未來十年一樣，我很想听聽您對 Blackstone 的能力以及整個私人市場行業提供超過公開市場超額回報的能力的看法。

And the question is in what sort of environment would you say the scope for outperformance is more versus less? And what are some of the opportunities there and steps you could take to enhance your ability to generate excess return, such as with direct origination and also harnessing artificial intelligence?

問題是在什麼樣的環境中，您認為表現出色的範圍更大還是更小？那裡有哪些機會以及您可以採取哪些步驟來增強產生超額回報的能力，例如直接發起和利用人工智能？

So I would say for the last 30-plus years we've been at this now, we've continued to have durable advantages over public markets and are investing. And I think it comes down to our sector selection, the advantages of scale and often inefficiencies in marketplaces, our ability to intervene in companies, which is really important with our portfolio operations team, and then our capital allocation decisions for these companies.

所以我想說，在過去的 30 多年裡，我們一直在做這件事，我們繼續在公開市場上擁有持久的優勢，並且正在投資。我認為這取決於我們的行業選擇、規模優勢和市場效率低下的優勢、我們干預公司的能力，這對我們的投資組合運營團隊來說非常重要，然後是我們對這些公司的資本配置決策。

And that formula has continued to work extremely well in very good environment and very challenging environments. And I don't see any reason why that goes away. In fact, we think as we get larger, we get better at this. We get better at scale because of the competitive advantage of size in the private markets. But we also have more inputs.

而且該公式在非常好的環境和非常具有挑戰性的環境中繼續非常有效。而且我看不出有任何原因會消失。事實上，我們認為隨著規模的擴大，我們會在這方面做得更好。由於私人市場規模的競爭優勢，我們在規模上變得更好。但我們也有更多的投入。

If you think about investing as pattern recognition, connecting dots, I don't think there's any firm in the world who gets to see more dots than we do. And so we can see something that's happening in the United States and how it's relevant in other parts of the world. You can see that in our global logistics investing. I think there are real powerful advantages from our scale and our model. So we think these return premiums will persist over time.

如果您將投資視為模式識別、連接點，我認為世界上沒有任何公司比我們看到更多的點。因此，我們可以看到美國正在發生的事情，以及它與世界其他地區的相關性。您可以在我們的全球物流投資中看到這一點。我認為我們的規模和模式具有真正強大的優勢。因此，我們認為這些回報溢價將隨著時間的推移持續存在。

In terms of technology, Steve can comment, but I would just say we've made a huge investment here on data scientists. We've got more than 40 of them. Every time we do a deal in private equity, in real estate, infrastructure, we've got a data scientist on the deal team. We're embedding them in our portfolio of companies. We realize the world is changing quickly. And we want to invest in that and be ahead of it.

在技術方面，史蒂夫可以發表評論，但我只想說我們在數據科學家方面進行了大量投資。我們有 40 多個。每次我們在私募股權、房地產、基礎設施領域進行交易時，我們的交易團隊都會有一名數據科學家。我們將它們嵌入到我們的公司組合中。我們意識到世界正在迅速變化。我們希望對此進行投資並領先於它。

That area -- this is Steve. That area is really sort of exploding. And we saw this probably 5, 6 years ago. And we started the department here, fantastic people. We use them on due diligence interestingly. Because when you accumulate large databases, sometimes it's hard to figure out what's going on with them. And we have that ability to do it.

那個區域——這是史蒂夫。那個區域真的有點爆炸。我們大概在 5、6 年前就看到了這一點。我們在這裡成立了這個部門，很棒的人。我們有趣地在盡職調查中使用它們。因為當你積累了大量的數據庫時，有時很難弄清楚它們到底發生了什麼。我們有能力做到這一點。

This whole generative AI area, which is vast, I mean, we've had our people sort of out in California meeting with a lot of the people involved in the whole AI area, funding College of Computing at MIT and AI ethics area in Oxford. And so we have a very unusual network here of [commercial] of the firm knowing what's going on. And I was with somebody last night involved in the sector outside of the Blackstone (inaudible) all, just dramatic increases in our (inaudible) power applied into databases, but they're very important outcomes.

整個生成人工智能領域，我的意思是，我們已經讓我們的人在加利福尼亞與很多參與整個人工智能領域的人會面，資助麻省理工學院的計算學院和牛津的人工智能倫理領域.因此，我們這裡有一個非常不尋常的網絡，公司的[商業]網絡知道發生了什麼。昨晚我和某人一起參與了 Blackstone（聽不清）以外的所有部門，只是我們（聽不清）應用於數據庫的力量急劇增加，但它們是非常重要的結果。

Some of these large language models will be erratic for a while. But as this is applied in, for example, more individual businesses (inaudible) generate over time (inaudible) of the risks (inaudible) you'll be able to do really very, very unusual things analytically on that model, which most people (inaudible). So strap yourself in on this one (inaudible)

這些大型語言模型中的一些會在一段時間內不穩定。但是，隨著這被應用於，例如，更多的個體企業（聽不清）隨著時間的推移（聽不清）產生風險（聽不清），你將能夠在該模型上分析地做非常非常不尋常的事情，大多數人（聽不見）。所以把自己綁在這個上（聽不清）

Next question, please, Katie.

下一個問題，凱蒂。

We'll go next to Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

我們將與 JPMorgan 一起去 Ken Worthington 旁邊。

I'd like to focus on BREDS. The pace of inflows has really picked up over the last 2 quarters, I assume, helped in part by your insurance relationships. So maybe first, how is demand for BREDS developing from your noninsurance clients?

我想專注於 BREDS。我認為，在過去的兩個季度中，資金流入的速度確實有所加快，部分原因是您的保險關係。因此，也許首先，您的非保險客戶對 BREDS 的需求如何發展？

Secondly, how are commercial real estate conditions impacting the size of the addressable market for BREDS from the investment perspective? And then lastly, deployment remains very light, similar to the other parts of your real estate business. Can you share the outlook for deployment for BREDS? And are the factors impacting deployment any different from core or opportunistic real estate?

其次，從投資的角度來看，商業房地產狀況如何影響 BREDS 的潛在市場規模？最後，部署仍然非常輕，類似於您的房地產業務的其他部分。您能否分享 BREDS 的部署前景？影響部署的因素與核心或機會性房地產有什麼不同嗎？

Well, I think our real estate debt business has a really great spot today. Banks are quite focused on CRE exposure, shareholders, regulators. And that is leading to a pullback. So if you have fresh capital to deploy in that area, I think it's quite positive. It can be on the new origination side in our latest BREDS fund, which we're in the process of raising. It can also be in liquid real estate securities, debt securities, where people are just cautious and trying to reduce exposure.

好吧，我認為我們的房地產債務業務今天非常有優勢。銀行非常關注 CRE 敞口、股東、監管機構。這導致回調。因此，如果你有新的資金部署在該領域，我認為這是非常積極的。它可以是我們正在籌集的最新 BREDS 基金的新發起方。它也可以是流動性房地產證券、債務證券，人們只是謹慎並試圖減少風險敞口。

We talked here at the beginning of the call about the massive differentiation across real estate. And now at times, you see people just pulling back regardless of the sector they're exposed to. So I think the opportunity in real estate debt will come first. And I think it's a very favorable time to be a lender in that space. Obviously, the office sector in the U.S. is the one cautionary area where there's more exposure, although debt loan-to-value levels were much lower than they were in the last downturn.

我們在電話會議開始時在這裡談到了房地產之間的巨大差異。現在有時，你會看到人們不管他們接觸的是哪個行業，都會退縮。所以我認為房地產債務的機會將首先出現。我認為現在是該領域貸款人的大好時機。顯然，美國的寫字樓行業是風險敞口較大的一個警示領域，儘管債務貸款價值比水平遠低於上一次經濟衰退時的水平。

I think overall, the opportunity exists here with insurance clients. And with regular way institutional clients, we're going to continue to pursue it broadly. It's one of the great things about Blackstone is we have so many different engines out there. In real estate, we not only have this equity business, we have a very big real estate debt business, which alone is $60 billion. In most firms, that would be quite sizable. But inside our nearly $1 trillion, it doesn't get a lot of attention. But I do think it's an area of growth for us. I think we're obviously raising the next drawdown. And for the insurance clients and institutional clients in more liquid areas, I think there's a lot of opportunity.

我認為總體而言，保險客戶存在機會。對於常規方式的機構客戶，我們將繼續廣泛地追求它。 Blackstone 的一大優點是我們有這麼多不同的引擎。在房地產方面，我們不僅有股權業務，還有非常大的房地產債務業務，僅此一項就達 600 億美元。在大多數公司中，這將是相當可觀的。但在我們近 1 萬億美元的資產中，它並沒有引起太多關注。但我確實認為這對我們來說是一個增長領域。我認為我們顯然是在提高下一次回撤。對於流動性更高的領域的保險客戶和機構客戶，我認為有很多機會。

We'll go next to Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將與德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell 一起。

Maybe just to pivot to BREIT, Jon, you talked about the potential for mark-to-market improvements in rent. How would you think that kind of layers through over the course of the year? I mean, obviously, the hedge on the long bond hurt a little bit in the first quarter. But as we move through the year, are you optimistic that, that performance profile will improve.

喬恩，也許只是為了轉向 BREIT，你談到了租金按市值計價改善的潛力。在這一年中，您如何看待這種層次？我的意思是，顯然，長期債券的對沖在第一季度受到了一些傷害。但隨著我們度過這一年，你是否樂觀地認為，業績狀況會有所改善。

And as investors think about the redemption request, do you think it will be more of a factor of overall risk-off appetite in the market? Or do you think that BREIT investors will see that performance improvement potential and therefore even reduce those redemption requests and potentially turn this product net flow-positive later this year?

當投資者考慮贖回請求時，您認為這將更多地成為市場整體避險偏好的一個因素嗎？還是您認為 BREIT 投資者會看到業績改善的潛力，因此甚至會減少贖回請求，並有可能在今年晚些時候將該產品的淨流量轉為正數？

Well, ultimately, Brian, it's performance that matters. And I think what's remarkable, there's a lot of attention, as you know, on the redemptions, what's quite remarkable is that in the first quarter, we saw a 9% estimated same-store cash flow growth against this very large $100 billion-plus portfolio of commercial real estate. And it speaks the positioning of the fund, our exposure in rental housing, not just traditional rental housing but also in single-family rentals, in student housing, where there's real strength. It's the logistics, where you have this big mark-to-market. We have some hotel exposure.

好吧，最終，布賴恩，重要的是表現。我認為值得注意的是，如你所知，贖回引起了很多關注，非常值得注意的是，在第一季度，我們看到同店現金流估計增長了 9%，而這一規模超過 1000 億美元商業地產組合。它說明了該基金的定位，我們在出租房屋方面的投資，不僅是傳統的出租房屋，還包括單戶出租房屋、學生住房，這些領域具有真正的優勢。這是物流，你有這個大市場。我們有一些酒店風險。

And one area we haven't talked a lot about, BREIT has a data center business that is doing extraordinarily well. And we believe that the position of BREIT in those sectors and its focus on the Sun Belt -- again, the fact that we chose to invest most of this in the Sun Belt, in places like Texas and Florida, is a real difference maker. And we think, as you look over time, that's what really matters here. Now as you look forward, what's going to impact the redemptions? I think it's a combination.

還有一個我們沒有談太多的領域，BREIT 的數據中心業務做得非常好。我們相信 BREIT 在這些領域的地位及其對太陽帶的關注——同樣，我們選擇將大部分資金投資於德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州等地的太陽帶，這一事實是一個真正的差異製造者。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這才是真正重要的。現在，當你展望未來時，什麼會影響贖回？我認為這是一個組合。

I think it will be multiple months of positive performance, we'll show people and give them confidence, as well as volatility in the marketplace coming down. Right now, we're seeing investors cautious really towards all equity vehicles. And we're seeing something, as you know, better in terms of flows today in BCRED because investors are more open to the debt business.

我認為這將是幾個月的積極表現，我們將向人們展示並給予他們信心，以及市場波動性的下降。目前，我們看到投資者對所有股票工具都非常謹慎。正如您所知，我們在 BCRED 今天看到了更好的流量，因為投資者對債務業務更加開放。

But we think this is just a question of time. If we deliver, given the portfolio we've built, the structure we've got here, this is working for investors. As we've talked about 12% since inception, triple the public REIT index, that's ultimately what matters, the portfolio positioning is what matters. And then as that performance shows up, as markets become a little less volatile, then I think you'll see a resumption of more positive flows here.

但我們認為這只是時間問題。如果我們交付，考慮到我們已經建立的投資組合，我們在這裡得到的結構，這對投資者有用。正如我們自成立以來談到的 12%，是公共 REIT 指數的三倍，這最終才是最重要的，投資組合的定位才是最重要的。然後隨著這種表現的出現，隨著市場波動性的降低，我認為你會在這裡看到更多正向流動的恢復。

Well, one thing that Jon mentioned was data centers. And we own one of the largest data center companies in the world. The growth in that area as a result of the changes with AI are going to be really, really substantial. The need for data centers is going to escalate. I point that out just as an area of competitive advantage for us in our funds.

好吧，喬恩提到的一件事是數據中心。我們擁有世界上最大的數據中心公司之一。由於人工智能的變化，該領域的增長將非常非常可觀。對數據中心的需求將會升級。我指出，這只是我們基金競爭優勢的一個領域。

We'll take our next question from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

我們將接受來自高盛的 Alex Blostein 的下一個問題。

So I was hoping we could expand the credit discussion a little broader to sort of all things private lending. In prior periods of dislocation, Blackstone really used it as an opportunity to sort of build out new businesses. And direct lending has been going there, in that direction for a while. CRE, as we talked about, looks interesting.

所以我希望我們可以將信貸討論擴大到更廣泛的範圍，以涵蓋所有私人借貸方面的問題。在之前的混亂時期，黑石確實將其作為建立新業務的機會。一段時間以來，直接貸款一直在朝這個方向發展。正如我們所說，CRE 看起來很有趣。

But what else is out there that you think is currently performed by the banks that could fit the private model? Where do you see the biggest kind of disconnect between supply and demand? And maybe talk a little bit about your ability to raise capital around those initiatives.

但是，您認為目前銀行執行的其他哪些操作可以適合私人模式？您在哪裡看到供需之間最大的脫節？也許談談你圍繞這些計劃籌集資金的能力。

Great question, Alex. I would say the asset-backed area is the greatest area of opportunity today beyond what we've talked about in direct lending to corporates as well as commercial real estate. The regional banks generally play a very large role in home improvement loans, in auto loans, equipment finance. Those are all areas of opportunities. I'd also say NAV lending to funds is another area in the asset-backed space we see a lot of opportunity.

好問題，亞歷克斯。我想說資產支持領域是當今最大的機會領域，超出了我們所討論的直接向企業貸款和商業房地產的領域。地區性銀行通常在家裝貸款、汽車貸款、設備融資方面發揮著非常大的作用。這些都是機會領域。我還想說資產淨值貸款是資產支持領域的另一個領域，我們看到了很多機會。

And what's happening today is there are banks out there who have very good relationships with borrowers, who want to continue to generate this flow. And we can be a long-term partner to them and take a share of that flow. And we're in a number of discussions. And I think what you'll see here is some potentially funds but a lot of more targeted SMAs, particularly with insurance clients, and I think also with some of our traditional pension clients. And what's happening here is the private equity and alternatives business started in the equity space, taking money out of public equity allocations.

而今天發生的事情是，有些銀行與借款人有著非常良好的關係，他們希望繼續產生這種流量。我們可以成為他們的長期合作夥伴，並從中分一杯羹。我們正在進行許多討論。我認為你會在這裡看到一些潛在的基金，但有很多更有針對性的 SMA，特別是保險客戶，我認為還有一些傳統的養老金客戶。而這裡發生的事情是私募股權和另類投資業務開始於股權領域，從公共股權配置中抽走資金。

I think the opportunity today is in fixed income to convince institutional investors to take a little less liquidity and to partner with somebody like us. So I think you could see this with our large institutional clients scaling up quite a bit and certainly in the insurance arena. And that's why we said we really think it's a golden moment for private credit.

我認為今天的機會在於固定收益，以說服機構投資者減少流動性並與像我們這樣的人合作。所以我認為你可以看到我們的大型機構客戶擴大了很多規模，當然在保險領域也是如此。這就是為什麼我們說我們真的認為這是私人信貸的黃金時刻。

We'll go next to Finian O'Shea with Wells Fargo.

我們將與 Wells Fargo 一起去 Finian O'Shea。

A question on the growth opportunity in retail. Can you talk about the competition with cash and how you're positioning products for success against higher money market yields?

關於零售業增長機會的問題。你能談談與現金的競爭以及你如何定位產品以成功應對更高的貨幣市場收益率嗎？

Well, what I'd say is in our drawdown funds that we sell, we're obviously targeting much higher returns. So there, there's less of an issue. If you look again at what we produced in our private credit vehicle, BCRED, if you look at what we've done in BREIT, again meaningful premiums over cash. I would point out that BCRED in particular is a floating rate lender. And as a floating rate lender, it's benefiting. Its returns this year had been extremely strong because defaults remain low and base rates have moved up quite a bit.

好吧，我要說的是，在我們出售的提款基金中，我們的目標顯然是更高的回報。因此，問題不大。如果你再看看我們在我們的私人信貸工具 BCRED 中生產的產品，如果你看看我們在 BREIT 中所做的事情，就會再次看到比現金有意義的溢價。我要指出的是，BCRED 尤其是一家浮動利率貸款機構。作為一個浮動利率貸款人，它正在受益。它今年的回報非常強勁，因為違約率仍然很低，而且基準利率已經上升了很多。

We're now also seeing spreads cap out on new originations, which helped. So BCRED, perfectly positioned, benefiting as rates move up. BREIT still has a favorable yield. Because if you remember, we pay out north of a 4% dividend for U.S. investors. Because of the tax shield here, it's an effective current yield close to 7%. So we think these products are still very well positioned, that has increased competition for us today. But over time, we think it's total return that really matters.

我們現在也看到了新起源的利差上限，這有所幫助。所以 BCRED，定位完美，隨著利率上升而受益。 BREIT 的收益率仍然不錯。因為如果你還記得的話，我們為美國投資者支付了超過 4% 的股息。由於這裡的稅盾，它的有效當前收益率接近 7%。所以我們認為這些產品的定位仍然非常好，這增加了我們今天的競爭。但隨著時間的推移，我們認為真正重要的是總回報。

We'll take our next question from Jerry O'Hara with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起接受 Jerry O'Hara 的下一個問題。

Perhaps one for Michael. You mentioned sort of FRPR to likely accelerate in the back half of the year. So kind of hoping you might be able to maybe give us a little bit of color what gives you confidence or visibility there. And then I guess, thinking about it, just on a related basis, ex the FRPR, any sense of how we could think about incremental FRE margin expansion throughout the kind of next 12 to 18 months would also be helpful.

也許是給邁克爾的。你提到某種 FRPR 可能會在今年下半年加速。所以有點希望你能給我們一些顏色，讓你在那裡有信心或知名度。然後我想，考慮一下，只是在相關的基礎上，例如 FRPR，我們如何考慮在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內增量 FRE 利潤率擴張的任何感覺也會有所幫助。

All right. Jerry, on FRPRs, we talked about this before in my remarks. But we definitely see an acceleration. And I specifically point to two things, BPC FRPRs in the second half of the year, we have a schedule. It's known what will be eligible for incentive fee events. I think we mentioned last quarter, 4x more AUM will be crystallizing this year than last year. There was very little in the first quarter. There will be a modest amount in the second quarter. So it's really a second half event. The ultimate dollars in that will obviously be a function of the embedded gains at that time. But we have decent visibility on that.

好的。傑里，關於 FRPR，我們之前在我的發言中談到了這一點。但我們肯定會看到加速。我特別指出兩件事，下半年的 BPC FRPR，我們有一個時間表。眾所周知，什麼將有資格獲得獎勵費活動。我想我們在上個季度提到過，今年的 AUM 將比去年多 4 倍。第一季度很少。第二季度會有少量。所以這真的是下半場比賽。其中的最終美元顯然是當時嵌入式收益的函數。但我們對此有很好的了解。

And I'd also note on BCRED, which is sort of a little bit below the radar as it relates to FRPRs, that is obviously a steadily expanding base of both management fees and FRPRs. And those FRPRs are based on investment income, borrowers paying interest. It's a very stable and crystallizes core, so it's a very stable source of incentive fees. And I'd note that FRPRs for BCRED, we don't break it out. But those doubled year-over-year in the first quarter actually. So there's important underlying momentum, I think, from multiple areas, not just the ones that get a lot of the attention.

我還注意到 BCRED，它與 FRPR 相關，有點低調，這顯然是管理費和 FRPR 的穩步擴大基礎。這些 FRPR 是基於投資收入、借款人支付的利息。它是一個非常穩定和結晶的核心，所以它是一個非常穩定的激勵費用來源。我會注意到 BCRED 的 FRPR，我們不會將其分解。但實際上，第一季度同比翻了一番。因此，我認為，有來自多個領域的重要潛在動力，而不僅僅是那些受到很多關注的領域。

On margins, as I said in my remarks, I'll just say the big picture is we -- I think stepping back, we -- I think it's fair to say we've demonstrated the ability to generate significant operating leverage over time, so -- and that comes from strong underlying management fee growth for long periods of time and disciplined approach to cost management.

關於利潤率，正如我在發言中所說，我只想說大局是我們——我認為退後一步，我們——我認為可以公平地說，我們已經展示了隨著時間的推移產生顯著運營槓桿的能力，所以 - 這來自長期強勁的基礎管理費增長和嚴格的成本管理方法。

And in our biggest area cost, compensation, we fundamentally have a performance of a line structure, over which we have considerable control. So in terms of the outlook, as always, I would focus on full year delivery, not enter a year quarter-to-quarter. I refer you back to my comments from last quarter regarding confidence about margin stability. And so for the full year 2023 relative to 2022, I think we (inaudible)

在我們最大的區域成本、薪酬方面，我們基本上具有線性結構的性能，我們對此有相當大的控制權。因此，就前景而言，一如既往，我會專注於全年交付，而不是按季度進入年度。我請你回顧一下我上個季度關於對保證金穩定性的信心的評論。因此，對於相對於 2022 年的 2023 年全年，我認為我們（聽不清）

We'll take our next question from Ben Budish with Barclays.

我們將從巴克萊銀行的 Ben Budish 那裡回答下一個問題。

I wanted to ask about refinancing risk across the portfolio, thinking about real estate in particular. But kind of wondering, are there any areas where you have portfolio of companies or real estate assets paying fixed rates under debt, where there could be a potential step-up over the next few years? How are you guys thinking about that risk there?

我想詢問整個投資組合的再融資風險，尤其是考慮房地產。但有點想知道，你是否有任何領域的公司或房地產資產在債務下支付固定利率，在未來幾年內可能會提高？你們如何看待那裡的風險？

Well, what I would say on that is the good news is we have very little in the way of near-term maturities, which is the most significant thing. We generally are operating funds these days at far lower leverage than we had in the past. And we have ample reserves in these funds. And because we're positioned in the strong sectors, cash flow growth has been very significant, which really helps when you get to refinancing.

好吧，我要說的是好消息是我們幾乎沒有近期到期的東西，這是最重要的事情。如今，我們通常以比過去低得多的槓桿率運營資金。我們在這些基金中有充足的儲備。而且由於我們處於強勢行業，現金流增長非常顯著，這在您進行再融資時確實有幫助。

So had we positioned heavier obviously in U.S. office buildings, had we done a lot in retail, I think we would be more vulnerable. It doesn't mean there aren't specific situations. And at times, we have walked from assets when we don't see equity value. But when you look at our portfolio as a whole, we've used a very disciplined approach to leverage. And even at higher interest expense, we feel good about our ability to refinance and extend our debt.

因此，如果我們在美國辦公樓中的定位明顯更重，如果我們在零售業做了大量工作，我認為我們會更加脆弱。這並不意味著沒有特定情況。有時，當我們看不到股權價值時，我們就放棄了資產。但是當你從整體上看我們的投資組合時，我們使用了一種非常有紀律的槓桿方法。即使在更高的利息支出下，我們也對我們再融資和延長債務的能力感到滿意。

And then just to add some stats around that, I mean, I would just reinforce what Jon said. I think we're -- our teams are the best in the business actually at sort of managing capital structures, laddering maturities and making that constant process, locking in floating rates, exiting floating rates at attractive moments. And so just in terms of the metrics across our real estate and private equity portfolios, these are portfolio of companies, the average maturity -- remaining life in the maturities are about 4.5 years. So we're talking about at the end of 2027, so a really good runway there. As Jon said, minimal maturities across the portfolio this year.

然後只是為了添加一些統計數據，我的意思是，我只是強調喬恩所說的。我認為我們是——我們的團隊實際上在某種程度上管理資本結構、逐步到期並製定這一持續過程、鎖定浮動利率、在有吸引力的時刻退出浮動利率方面是業內最好的。因此，就我們的房地產和私募股權投資組合的指標而言，這些是公司的投資組合，平均期限 - 剩餘期限約為 4.5 年。所以我們談論的是 2027 年底，那裡有一條非常好的跑道。正如喬恩所說，今年整個投資組合的到期日最少。

And in a business like private equity, even though there's, typically on the face of it, potentially a fixed high-yield component but also a floating rate senior debt component, as I mentioned, our teams worked and have worked in the past to fix those floating rates at attractive times. So approximately, probably 2/3 of our private equity debt is essentially fixed rate at attractive levels. So we're very, I think, conscientious and focused about managing our capital structures.

在像私募股權這樣的業務中，儘管表面上通常有潛在的固定高收益部分，但也有浮動利率的高級債務部分，正如我提到的那樣，我們的團隊過去一直在努力修復在有吸引力的時期的那些浮動利率。因此，我們大約有 2/3 的私募股權債務本質上是固定利率且處於有吸引力的水平。因此，我認為，我們非常認真並專注於管理我們的資本結構。

We'll go next to Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

我們將在 Patrick Davitt 旁邊與 Autonomous Research 一起討論。

PE fundraising remains pretty anemic. And you mentioned it remains tough. But there was a pullout from Blackrock this week, which I think what's had the fairly surprising conclusion that the respondents, by far, most wanted to increase allocations to private equity this year.

私募股權融資仍然相當乏力。你提到它仍然很艱難。但本週貝萊德退出了，我認為這是一個相當令人驚訝的結論，即到目前為止，受訪者最希望今年增加對私募股權的配置。

That gives me an outlier versus other polls we've seen. So through the lens of that, do you sense like in your more broad discussions with LPs that they're starting to step in more to PE allocations and thus we could see a bigger uptick sometime later this year? Or is that poll surprising to you as well?

與我們見過的其他民意調查相比，這給了我一個異常值。因此，從這個角度來看，在與 LP 的更廣泛討論中，您是否感覺到他們開始更多地介入 PE 分配，因此我們可能會在今年晚些時候看到更大的增長？還是該民意調查也讓您感到驚訝？

Yes, it's interesting. Our clients love private equity. That's the bottom line. And why do they love private equity? It's because it's been the best-performing part of their portfolio for a long period of time at virtually every one of our clients. So when you have something that does well, you generally want more of it. The challenge, of course, is that it's grown to be above their targets. So they could have 10% or 12% or 15% target. They're above that.

是的，這很有趣。我們的客戶喜歡私募股權。這是底線。為什麼他們喜歡私募股權？這是因為在很長一段時間內，它幾乎是我們每個客戶的投資組合中表現最好的部分。所以當你有一些做得很好的東西時，你通常會想要更多。當然，挑戰在於它已經超過了他們的目標。所以他們可以有 10% 或 12% 或 15% 的目標。他們在上面。

And so they're constrained. And therefore, in some cases, they're doing some secondaries. In some cases, they're raising the allocations we talked last quarter about New York state raising allocations to private equity. But it's making them more cautious in the sense they only have so much budget to allocate. But it's not because of a lack of desire. And I would make the broader point, which is so important to our firm overall, our clients like alternatives, our institutional clients, insurance clients, individual investors.

所以他們受到限制。因此，在某些情況下，他們會做一些輔助工作。在某些情況下，他們正在提高我們上個季度談到的關於紐約州提高對私募股權的分配的分配。但這讓他們更加謹慎，因為他們只有這麼多預算可以分配。但這不是因為缺乏慾望。我會提出更廣泛的觀點，這對我們公司整體來說非常重要，我們的客戶喜歡替代品，我們的機構客戶，保險客戶，個人投資者。

And so the mega trend is intact. We're in a more challenging moment. A client's desire for our alternatives is very strong. But there are some structural challenges just in the near term. Because they may be over-allocated right now. Those things tend to go away over time. And their desire will become reality. And so that's what gives us a lot of confidence. But yes, near term, a more challenging private equity fundraising environment.

因此，大趨勢完好無損。我們正處於一個更具挑戰性的時刻。客戶對我們的替代品的需求非常強烈。但就在短期內存在一些結構性挑戰。因為它們現在可能被過度分配了。隨著時間的推移，這些事情往往會消失。他們的願望將成為現實。這就是給我們很大信心的原因。但是，是的，短期內，私募股權融資環境更具挑戰性。

But in the same survey, credit was up 52%. What it said is that 52% of institutional investors want to increase their allocation to credit. And we're feeling that. And that's a theme that both Jon and Michael really amplified on. And the Blackrock survey indicates, and it's quite logical that, that's a place to go. And that's not something historically that has been a first choice kind of decision at a time of low interest rates, obviously. That's all changed.

但在同一項調查中，信貸增長了 52%。它說的是，52% 的機構投資者希望增加對信貸的配置。我們感覺到了。這是 Jon 和 Michael 真正強調的主題。 Blackrock 的調查表明，這是一個值得去的地方，這是合乎邏輯的。顯然，從歷史上看，這並不是低利率時期的首選決策。這一切都變了。

We'll take our next question from Michael Brown with KBW.

我們將與 KBW 一起接受 Michael Brown 的下一個問題。

I just wanted to ask on the real estate segment, how should we think about the interplay of the growth in the equity and debt funds here and how that could play out for the fee rate for the segment overall? So I know the fee rate is generally an output here. But given the growth of BREDS and the strength of the insurance SMA business, is it fair to assume that those -- the strength there could actually put a little bit of a downward mix shift on the fee rate overall for the segment?

我只想問一下房地產領域，我們應該如何考慮這裡股票和債務基金增長的相互作用，以及這對整個領域的費率有何影響？所以我知道費率通常是這裡的輸出。但考慮到 BREDS 的增長和保險 SMA 業務的實力，是否可以公平地假設這些 - 那裡的實力實際上可以對該細分市場的整體費率產生一些向下的混合變化？

Michael, overall, I think zooming out on the firm and on the real estate segment, as you probably know, management fee rates over long periods of time have been remarkably stable and, in fact, if anything, tilting upwards. Probably, the one sort of dilutive factor is frankly the great growth of insurance. And that sort of couple of basis points overall affects the firm's overall management fee rate.

邁克爾，總的來說，我認為縮小公司和房地產領域，正如你可能知道的那樣，長期的管理費率一直非常穩定，事實上，如果有的話，向上傾斜。坦率地說，保險的巨大增長可能是一種稀釋因素。而這幾個基點總體上會影響公司的整體管理費率。

I think for the real estate segment, and Jon can chime in on relative growth rates, long-term positive tailwinds obviously around the growth rates of both. The actual management fee rate, I think, on the BREDS business are not such that I think you would see the overall segment's weighted average management fee dilute by very much over time.

我認為對於房地產領域，喬恩可以就相對增長率發表意見，這兩者的增長率顯然是長期積極的順風。我認為 BREDS 業務的實際管理費率並不是這樣的，我認為你會看到整個部門的加權平均管理費隨著時間的推移被稀釋很多。

And we'll take our next question from Bill Katz with Credit Suisse.

我們將接受瑞士信貸比爾卡茨的下一個問題。

Just circling back to the retail opportunity, sort of wondering if you could sort of think through or help us think through the evolution of the opportunity as it relates to product design, in terms of the liquidity nature of the business, any shift in the pricing. And then from here, what products do you think will drive incremental growth? And any update around private equity opportunity for that?

回到零售機會，有點想知道您是否可以考慮或幫助我們考慮與產品設計相關的機會的演變，就業務的流動性性質而言，定價的任何變化.然後從這裡開始，您認為哪些產品將推動增量增長？關於私募股權機會的任何更新？

Thanks, Bill. I would say we still see this as an enormous area of opportunity. There's $85 trillion of wealth in accounts where people have more than $1 million to invest. On average, folks in the individual investor space are only allocated 1% or 2% to alternatives as opposed to our institutional clients who are 25% or 30%. So there seems to us to be a lot of runway in this area. It does tend to lend itself a little better to yield-oriented products, so real estate and credit, not a surprise. We started in these areas. I think as it relates to the liquidity features, I think we've done a very good job creating these products. So we were match funded.

謝謝，比爾。我想說我們仍然認為這是一個巨大的機會領域。人們可以投資超過 100 萬美元的賬戶中有 85 萬億美元的財富。平均而言，個人投資者領域的人們只分配了 1% 或 2% 的替代品，而我們的機構客戶則為 25% 或 30%。所以在我們看來，這個區域有很多跑道。它確實更適合以收益為導向的產品，因此房地產和信貸並不令人意外。我們從這些領域著手。我認為與流動性功能相關，我認為我們在創建這些產品方面做得非常好。所以我們得到了配套資助。

I think BCRED for us, which has quarterly redemption features and a bit of a delay on when those redemptions come out, is probably a little bit of a better structure. That being said, you've seen with BREIT, we've done a terrific job managing this, running it with appropriate liquidity and delivering great returns for investors. And I do think as these products evolve over time, there will be a little more focus on how potentially they can be tweaked to optimize both return and risk. Also, when you sell these products, what kind of program and set up can you use to make sure investors recognize this should be a long-term holding for them like it is for institutional investors.

我認為 BCRED 對我們來說，具有季度贖回功能並且在這些贖回出現時有點延遲，可能是一個更好的結構。話雖這麼說，你已經看到 BREIT，我們在管理這方面做得非常出色，以適當的流動性運行它並為投資者帶來豐厚的回報。而且我確實認為，隨著這些產品隨著時間的推移而發展，人們將更加關注如何調整它們以優化回報和風險。此外，當你出售這些產品時，你可以使用什麼樣的程序和設置來確保投資者認識到這對他們來說應該像機構投資者一樣長期持有。

In terms of new products, yes, I think private equity broadly is an area of opportunity. It's corporate private equity for us. It could be secondaries. It could be life sciences growth, tactical opportunities. We really have a unique platform that can source a lot of deal flow. Again, this is a less liquid area than real estate and credit, so the structure would have to align with that. And then I think infrastructure, something we haven't talked about on the call, could be an area of opportunity. As you all know, we've grown that business in 5-or-so years to $36 billion of assets, outstanding performance really delivered for institutions.

就新產品而言，是的，我認為私募股權總體上是一個充滿機遇的領域。這對我們來說是企業私募股權。它可能是次要的。這可能是生命科學的增長，戰術機會。我們確實擁有一個獨特的平台，可以獲取大量交易流。同樣，這是一個流動性低於房地產和信貸的領域，因此結構必須與之保持一致。然後我認為基礎設施，我們在電話會議上沒有談到的東西，可能是一個機會領域。眾所周知，我們在 5 年左右的時間裡將該業務發展到 360 億美元的資產，真正為機構提供了出色的業績。

Again, it's a long-term compounder, with a yield component, should be attractive, so -- and then I think there are subcategories, who knows, real estate debt, other areas, multi-asset credit. I think as we build relationships with individual investors and deliver for them, their confidence in investing in a range of products and having a mix of both the semi-liquid vehicles and then for some drawdown vehicles, I think all of that will grow. People are focused on the near term, it's a volatile market. There's more caution today. But the long-term trends, as I said, are very much intact, I think, particularly in the retail space.

同樣，它是一個長期復利，具有收益成分，應該具有吸引力，所以 - 然後我認為還有子類別，誰知道，房地產債務，其他領域，多資產信貸。我認為，隨著我們與個人投資者建立關係並為他們提供服務，他們對投資一系列產品以及混合使用半流動性工具和一些縮減工具的信心，我認為所有這些都會增長。人們關注的是近期，這是一個動蕩的市場。今天更加謹慎。但正如我所說，長期趨勢非常完好，我認為，尤其是在零售領域。

We'll go next to Rufus Hone with BMO.

我們將與 BMO 一起去 Rufus Hone。

Wanted to ask about credit and insurance, maybe focusing in on origination. Can you talk about the build-out of your origination capabilities? You've mentioned a few key areas already, like asset-backed. But is there also maybe a longer-term margin expansion opportunity, assuming you've had to invest quite a significant amount to scale that front-end origination capacity so significantly? And if you could put some numbers around the size of your origination capacity, that would be really helpful.

想詢問有關信貸和保險的問題，也許關注起源。你能談談你的原創能力的構建嗎？你已經提到了幾個關鍵領域，比如資產支持。但是，假設您必須投入相當多的資金來如此顯著地擴展前端發起能力，是否還有更長期的利潤擴張機會？如果你能用一些數字來衡量你的原始容量，那將非常有幫助。

The numbers, the total amount of credit origination across real estate, asset-backed corporates, I don't know, Michael, do you have that number?

這些數字，房地產、資產支持公司的信貸總額，我不知道，邁克爾，你有那個數字嗎？

The number on -- in terms of -- our deployment numbers are more around the private strategies and our liquid credit strategies, in some cases, they're effectively trading strategies, the origination numbers are multiples of that.

就我們的部署數字而言，數字更多地圍繞私人策略和我們的流動信貸策略，在某些情況下，它們是有效的交易策略，原始數字是其倍數。

Yes. And I would say, overall, these are in the tens of billions of dollars in terms of the scale of this. We have made an enormous investment in people. I don't know to the specific numbers how much margin improvement. I think this is mostly about the growth in assets and fees overall. Like all our businesses, there tends to be a margin improvement over time. I mean, really, since we've gone public over the last 15 years, you've seen steady improvement in margin.

是的。我想說，總的來說，就規模而言，這些都是數百億美元。我們對人進行了巨大的投資。我不知道具體數字有多少利潤率改善。我認為這主要與資產和費用的整體增長有關。像我們所有的業務一樣，隨著時間的推移，利潤率往往會有所提高。我的意思是，真的，自從我們在過去 15 年上市以來，您已經看到利潤率穩步提高。

I would expect in this area, you would see margin improvement over time. But we just see a lot of white space in this area. And once you have these engines of origination, once you have a large commercial real estate origination capability, a direct lending capability, once you're doing things and all sorts of these asset-backed areas we talked about, then you can attract more assets. So I would just say, overall, still early days in our mind.

我希望在這個領域，隨著時間的推移，你會看到利潤率有所提高。但是我們只看到這個區域有很多空白。一旦你有了這些發起引擎，一旦你有了大型商業地產的發起能力，直接貸款能力，一旦你在做事情以及我們談到的各種這些資產支持的領域，那麼你就可以吸引更多的資產.所以我只想說，總的來說，我們還處於早期階段。

Yes, Rufus, I would just add -- it's Michael. I guess, three things are true. One is we entered this insurance -- dedicated insurance space a number of years ago with the advantage of having these platforms in direct origination for both corporate and real estate credit very well developed and built-out. So they were there to be leveraged with some but not an undue amount of incremental investment.

是的，Rufus，我想補充一點——是 Michael。我想，三件事是真的。一是我們進入了這個保險——幾年前專門的保險領域，其優勢是這些平台直接起源於非常發達和完善的企業和房地產信貸。因此，他們在那裡可以利用一些但不是過多的增量投資。

Second thing is we have been investing. So beneath the surface of the margin, we've been producing. We've been investing in this area generally, both in terms of sort of depth and breadth and also in newer asset areas like asset-backed finance. And then third, I would say, as we've commented before, the sort of incremental margin profile of this insurance capital is very attractive.

第二件事是我們一直在投資。所以在保證金的表面之下，我們一直在生產。我們一直在這個領域進行投資，無論是在深度和廣度方面，還是在資產支持金融等較新的資產領域。然後第三，我想說，正如我們之前評論過的那樣，這種保險資本的增量利潤率非常有吸引力。

We'll take our final question from Arnaud Giblat with BNP.

我們將接受 BNP 的 Arnaud Giblat 的最後一個問題。

If I could come back to the private wealth space, a number of your competitors are entering or looking to enter the space there. I'm just wondering if you could touch a bit more on your competitive -- how you see the competitive situation evolve there. What's your competitive advantage?

如果我能回到私人財富領域，您的許多競爭對手正在進入或希望進入那裡的領域。我只是想知道你是否可以多談談你的競爭——你如何看待那裡的競爭形勢。你的競爭優勢是什麼？

Maybe in light of the fact that today, they -- private investors might be a bit less allocated, so maybe there might be less of a brand advantage. So I'm just wondering how you're thinking about really positioning and increasing your competitive moat there.

也許鑑於今天的事實，他們 - 私人投資者的分配可能會少一些，所以品牌優勢可能會減少。所以我只是想知道你是如何考慮真正定位和增加你在那裡的競爭護城河的。

So it's no surprise when you have a big market and people see the opportunity, that others move in. And we expect to have more competitors. What I would say is we have a number of advantages. First, we've really been the first mover in the space. We built out our private wealth distribution team. Joan Solotar and her team have done a terrific job. We have hundreds of people on the ground around the world. And that matters.

因此，當您擁有一個大市場並且人們看到機會時，其他人就會進入也就不足為奇了。我們希望有更多的競爭對手。我要說的是我們有很多優勢。首先，我們確實是該領域的先行者。我們建立了私人財富分配團隊。 Joan Solotar 和她的團隊做得非常出色。我們在世界各地有數百名員工。這很重要。

And also, what matters is we've built up relationships with financial advisers around the world, particularly here in the United States. They've been investing in a range of Blackstone products for a long period of time, both drawdown and semi-liquid products. And of course, most importantly, they've had good experiences. And that really matters. And then I do think the brand makes a difference. When you go and you talk to a financial adviser or their end customer, the fact that they know who Blackstone is does make the likelihood of purchase much greater.

而且，重要的是我們已經與世界各地的財務顧問建立了關係，尤其是在美國。他們長期以來一直在投資一系列 Blackstone 產品，包括縮減和半流動產品。當然，最重要的是，他們擁有良好的體驗。這真的很重要。然後我確實認為品牌有所作為。當您去與財務顧問或他們的最終客戶交談時，他們知道黑石集團的事實確實會增加購買的可能性。

And finally, what I'd say in this space, unlike the institutional space, where you can have thousands of private equity firms, you can't have large numbers of firms on these platforms. They're going to have a handful in private credit, private real estate, maybe in private equity. We think we'll have a slot in almost all of these places. Because of our brand, our reach, the track record, I think that's a very good spot to be in.

最後，我要說的是，在這個領域，與可以擁有數千家私募股權公司的機構領域不同，這些平台上不能擁有大量公司。他們將擁有少數私人信貸、私人房地產，也許還有私人股本。我們認為我們將在幾乎所有這些地方都有一席之地。由於我們的品牌、影響力和業績記錄，我認為這是一個非常好的位置。

We've invested here early. We think we're going to continue to build on what we've done. And if you ask financial advisers out there about Blackstone, I generally think you'll hear very positive things about the way we've done this. We brought fees down pretty dramatically when we entered the space because we were focused on net returns. We've added a whole new level of transparency and engagement in all of this. All this investment over a decade-plus is going to pay big dividends over time.

我們很早就在這裡投資了。我們認為我們將繼續在我們已經完成的基礎上再接再厲。如果你向那裡的財務顧問詢問有關 Blackstone 的信息，我通常認為你會聽到關於我們完成這件事的方式的非常積極的事情。當我們進入這個領域時，我們大幅降低了費用，因為我們專注於淨回報。我們在所有這些方面增加了一個全新的透明度和參與度。十多年來的所有這些投資都將隨著時間的推移帶來豐厚的回報。

One other thing. We've been doing this for like 10 years, roughly. And when we started, hardly anybody in that channel knew what we were doing or what the program was. And so we started a series of in-person, what we call, BX Universities, Blackstone Universities. And we have had -- I don't know the number, whether it's 10,000 or (inaudible) who've been at the firm. And they usually come for a day. And we introduce them to each of our different business areas. We teach them how alternatives work, the differences between that and other types of immediately liquid types of investments as well as why the returns are higher.

另一件事。大約 10 年來，我們一直在這樣做。當我們開始時，該頻道中幾乎沒有人知道我們在做什麼或節目是什麼。因此，我們開始了一系列面對面的活動，我們稱之為 BX 大學、黑石大學。我們已經 - 我不知道這個數字，無論是 10,000 還是（聽不清）誰在公司工作。他們通常會來一天。我們將他們介紹給我們每個不同的業務領域。我們教他們另類投資是如何運作的，它與其他類型的即時流動性投資之間的區別，以及為什麼回報更高。

And I can't overestimate for you how important this is. Because when somebody comes and spends a day, and sometimes it's more than a day, and learn something from the ground-up, that if they go back and they talk to people who work with them, people who are in the same office, and they say, "You should really be doing this." And that sort of viral kind of internal marketing is pretty remarkable. And since we've been doing it, when no one was doing this, I mean, we were just alone.

我不能高估你的重要性。因為當有人來這裡度過一天，有時甚至不止一天，從頭開始學習一些東西，如果他們回去和與他們一起工作的人交談，在同一個辦公室的人，以及他們說，“你真的應該這樣做。”這種病毒式的內部營銷非常了不起。因為我們一直在做，當沒有人這樣做的時候，我的意思是，我們只是一個人。

We have a group of people who really trust what we're doing in our fulfillment organization, which is different in service for customers of that type, is totally unlike institutional type of support. And we built that over a very long period of time. And no one else had that, who competes with us. And so there is a -- when Jon mentioned the first mover advantage, it's really about people and reputation and knowledge and performance. And that type of thing really is quite enduring. So I leave you with that one.

我們有一群真正信任我們在我們的履行組織中所做的事情的人，這在為那種類型的客戶提供的服務上是不同的，完全不同於機構類型的支持。我們在很長一段時間內建立了它。沒有其他人擁有與我們競爭的人。因此，當喬恩提到先發優勢時，它實際上與人、聲譽、知識和績效有關。那種東西真的很持久。所以我把那個留給你。

Thank you, Arnaud. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, I look forward to connecting after the call. Thank you.

謝謝你，阿爾諾。感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，我期待在通話後聯繫。謝謝。