Blackstone Inc (BX) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Blackstone Second Quarter 2022 Investor Call hosted by Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations. My name is Ben, and I'm your event manager. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加由股東關係主管 Weston Tucker 主持的 Blackstone 2022 年第二季度投資者電話會議。我的名字是本，我是你的活動經理。 （操作員說明）

I'd like to advise all parties that this conference is being recorded. And now I would like to hand it over to your host. Weston, the word is yours.

我想通知各方，這次會議正在錄製中。現在我想把它交給你的主人。韋斯頓，這個詞是你的。

Terrific. Thanks, Ben, and good morning, and welcome to Blackstone's second quarter conference call. Joining today are Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. We expect to file our 10-Q report in a few weeks.

了不起。謝謝，Ben，早上好，歡迎參加 Blackstone 第二季度電話會議。今天加入的有董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼（Steve Schwarzman）； Jon Gray，總裁兼首席運營官；和首席財務官 Michael Chae。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和幻燈片演示，可在我們的網站上找到。我們預計在幾週內提交我們的 10-Q 報告。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and outside of the firm's control and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. And for a discussion of some of the risks that could affect results, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K. We'll also refer to non-GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the shareholders page of our website.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述不確定且超出公司的控制範圍，並且可能與實際結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何義務。有關可能影響結果的一些風險的討論，請參閱我們 10-K 的風險因素部分。我們還將參考非 GAAP 措施，您可以在我們網站股東頁面上的新聞稿中找到對賬。

Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成出售任何 Blackstone 基金的要約或購買任何 Blackstone 基金權益的要約邀請。此音頻廣播是 Blackstone 的受版權保護的材料，未經同意不得複制。

On results, we reported a GAAP net loss for the quarter of $256 million. Distributable earnings were $2 billion or $1.49 per common share, and we declared a dividend of $1.27 per share, paid to holders of record as of August 1.

在業績方面，我們報告了該季度 GAAP 淨虧損 2.56 億美元。可分配收益為 20 億美元或每股普通股 1.49 美元，我們宣布派發每股 1.27 美元的股息，支付給截至 8 月 1 日在冊的持有人。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thanks a lot, Weston. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. As you know, the second quarter and the first half of '22 represented some of the worst periods for market performance in history. Investors were anticipating extremely high levels of inflation, rising interest rates and a slowing economy. The S&P fell 16% in the quarter and 20% in the first 6 months of the year, the largest first half decline for U.S. equities in over 50 years.

非常感謝，韋斯頓。早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話。如您所知，22 年第二季度和上半年代表了歷史上市場表現最差的一些時期。投資者預計會出現極高水平的通脹、利率上升和經濟放緩。標準普爾指數本季度下跌 16%，今年前 6 個月下跌 20%，為 50 多年來美國股市上半年最大跌幅。

Debt markets experienced the largest decline on record. Taken together, the typical 60-40 portfolio produced its worst return since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Capital markets activity, of course, slowed dramatically, including U.S. IPOs, down over 90% year-on-year, and commodity prices soared but now appear to be backing off from their highest levels.

債務市場經歷了有記錄以來的最大跌幅。綜合來看，典型的 60-40 投資組合產生了自 1930 年代大蕭條以來的最差回報。當然，資本市場活動大幅放緩，包括美國 IPO，同比下降 90% 以上，大宗商品價格飆升，但現在似乎從最高水平回落。

Despite these hostile conditions, Blackstone again delivered outstanding results for our investors. Distributable earnings in Q2 nearly doubled year-over-year to $2 billion, one of the 2 best quarters in our history, driven by a 45% growth in fee-related earnings and record realizations. We raised a remarkable $88 billion of inflows. That's $88 billion of inflows in the quarter in the midst of the market chaos, our second highest quarter ever and equal, ironically, to Blackstone's total AUM at the time of our IPO in 2007.

儘管存在這些不利條件，Blackstone 再次為我們的投資者帶來了出色的業績。第二季度的可分配收益同比幾乎翻了一番，達到 20 億美元，這是我們歷史上兩個最好的季度之一，這得益於費用相關收益增長 45% 和創紀錄的實現。我們籌集了驚人的 880 億美元資金流入。在市場混亂的情況下，本季度流入 880 億美元，這是我們有史以來第二高的季度，具有諷刺意味的是，與黑石集團在 2007 年首次公開募股時的總資產管理規模相當。

For the past 12 months, inflows reached $340 billion, driving a 38% increase in AUM to a record setting for us, $941 million. We are about midway through the largest fundraising cycle in our history with enormous support from our limited partners, providing us with an unprecedented $170 billion of dry powder capital. And over the next several years, we expect historically attractive investment opportunities to arise from this dislocation. As a result, our fundraising cycle and the deployment of our dry powder should significantly expand the firm's earnings power and fee-related earnings over time.

在過去的 12 個月裡，資金流入達到 3400 億美元，推動資產管理規模增長 38%，達到創紀錄的 9.41 億美元。在有限合夥人的大力支持下，我們正處於歷史上最大的籌款週期的中途，為我們提供了前所未有的 1700 億美元的干粉資本。在接下來的幾年裡，我們預計這種錯位將產生具有歷史吸引力的投資機會。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們的籌款週期和乾粉的部署應該會顯著擴大公司的盈利能力和與費用相關的收益。

How can Blackstone generate these extraordinary results while most other money managers are suffering? We believe that it is the power of our brand and our superior performance, which have enabled us to build unique relationships with our clients over decades. We've also benefited from the remarkable trends started over 30 years ago of increasing allocations to alternative managers as investors seek higher, sustainable returns, including retail investors, which represent a vast and largely untapped market.

當大多數其他基金經理都在受苦時，黑石如何產生這些非凡的成果？我們相信，正是我們品牌的力量和卓越的業績，使我們能夠在數十年中與客戶建立獨特的關係。我們還受益於 30 多年前開始的顯著趨勢，即隨著投資者尋求更高、可持續的回報，包括散戶投資者在內的另類經理人的配置增加，這是一個巨大且基本上尚未開發的市場。

Limited partners across customer channels rely on us to produce differentiated outcomes compared to what they can achieve in traditional asset classes. In the second quarter, for example, our flagship strategies, again, dramatically outperformed the relevant market indices, most notably in real estate and our hedge fund solutions business.

與傳統資產類別相比，跨客戶渠道的有限合作夥伴依靠我們產生差異化的結果。例如，在第二季度，我們的旗艦策略再次顯著優於相關市場指數，尤其是在房地產和我們的對沖基金解決方案業務方面。

In real estate, while the public REIT index fell 17% in the quarter, our Core+ funds were up 2.3%. I'll do that again for you. The index is down 17%, we were up 2.3%. And our opportunistic funds protected capital, down only 1%. So we only performed by 16% for our customers over the index. For the first 6 months of the year, our real estate strategies appreciated 9% to 10% versus a 20% decline in the REIT index, equaling an outperformance of roughly 3,000 basis points. I don't know many asset classes that perform -- outperform indexes by 3,000 basis points.

在房地產方面，雖然公共房地產投資信託指數在本季度下跌 17%，但我們的核心 + 基金上漲了 2.3%。我會為你再做一次。該指數下跌了 17%，我們上漲了 2.3%。而我們的機會主義基金保護了資本，僅下跌了 1%。因此，我們的客戶僅比該指數高出 16%。今年前 6 個月，我們的房地產策略升值 9% 至 10%，而 REIT 指數下跌 20%，相當於跑贏約 3,000 個基點。我不知道有多少資產類別表現出色——跑贏指數 3,000 個基點。

Meanwhile, in liquids, BAM achieved positive returns again in the second quarter and a 1.8% growth for the first half, outperforming the S&P by 2,200 basis points for the 6-month period and the hedge fund index by nearly 700 basis points. This is exactly what BAM's products are designed to do in down markets. These results, frankly, are stunning compared to the losses most investors are experiencing.

同時，在流動性方面，BAM 第二季度再次實現正回報，上半年增長 1.8%，6 個月期間跑贏標普 2,200 個基點，跑贏對沖基金指數近 700 個基點。這正是 BAM 的產品在低迷市場中的設計初衷。坦率地說，與大多數投資者所經歷的損失相比，這些結果是驚人的。

What drives our fund's outperformance and allows us to sustain it over time? Our investment process is highly differentiated, including a rigorous focus on choosing the best sectors and assets, always with a priority of protecting capital. And we create value in our investments with our deep portfolio operations and asset management capabilities. We had anticipated higher interest rates and more pervasive inflation for some time, and we position the firm's portfolios to reflect that, which Jon will discuss in more detail. We're seeing the clear benefits of that foresight today and so are our customers.

是什麼推動了我們基金的出色表現並讓我們能夠長期維持下去？我們的投資流程高度差異化，包括嚴格選擇最佳行業和資產，始終以保護資本為優先事項。我們憑藉深厚的投資組合運營和資產管理能力為我們的投資創造價值。一段時間以來，我們預計更高的利率和更普遍的通貨膨脹，我們定位公司的投資組合以反映這一點，喬恩將更詳細地討論這一點。今天，我們看到了這種遠見的明顯好處，我們的客戶也是如此。

Looking forward, market conditions will remain challenging. We're cautious on inflation, which we think could stay higher for longer than most expect, and central banks will have to continue responding. It will be a difficult balancing act in combating inflation while trying to minimize the negative impact on economies.

展望未來，市場狀況仍將充滿挑戰。我們對通脹持謹慎態度，我們認為通脹可能會比大多數人預期的持續時間更長，央行將不得不繼續做出回應。在對抗通貨膨脹的同時盡量減少對經濟的負面影響，這將是一個艱難的平衡。

Europe is also facing the most severe impacts of the war in Ukraine in terms of dislocations in energy markets and the global food supply. And in Asia, the periodic reassertion of COVID remains a headwind to growth. These conditions, of course, create significant uncertainty for markets. And the critical question is how much has already been incorporated in the broad-based declines that have occurred. It is impossible to know the exact outcome because it depends on future central bank actions, but economic softening, along with corporate margin pressure, will be prevalent.

在能源市場和全球糧食供應的混亂方面，歐洲也面臨著烏克蘭戰爭最嚴重的影響。在亞洲，COVID 的周期性重申仍然是增長的逆風。當然，這些條件給市場帶來了很大的不確定性。關鍵問題是有多少已經被納入已經發生的基礎廣泛的下降中。不可能知道確切的結果，因為這取決於未來央行的行動，但經濟疲軟以及企業利潤壓力將普遍存在。

Blackstone is uniquely positioned to navigate these uncertainties on behalf of our investors. We've lived through many cycles in our 36-year history. In each one, we learned a lot, and each one reinforced the importance of having long-term committed capital. The vast majority of our AUM today is under long-term contracts or in perpetual structures, helping us avoid the large decreases in AUM experienced by many other money managers in this environment, as we've all seen.

Blackstone 具有獨特的優勢，可以代表我們的投資者應對這些不確定性。在我們 36 年的歷史中，我們經歷了許多周期。在每一項中，我們都學到了很多，每一項都強調了擁有長期承諾資本的重要性。正如我們都看到的那樣，我們今天的絕大多數 AUM 都是長期合同或永久結構，幫助我們避免了許多其他基金經理在這種環境下經歷的 AUM 大幅下降。

Our model also provides us the advantage of patience to buy assets and the flexibility to sell when the time is right. Meanwhile, our portfolio is in excellent shape, having been carefully designed with the current environment in mind. The firm is extremely secure financially with a market cap today of $120 billion, minimal net debt and importantly, no insurance liabilities. Our fundraising should allow us to invest large-scale capital at lower prices, providing the basis for substantial realizations in the future. We expect a significant expansion of FRE over the next several years, which Michael will discuss.

我們的模型還為我們提供了耐心購買資產和在合適的時候靈活出售的優勢。同時，我們的產品組合狀況極佳，經過精心設計，考慮到當前環境。該公司目前的市值為 1200 億美元，淨債務極少，重要的是，沒有保險負債，財務狀況非常安全。我們的籌款應該讓我們能夠以更低的價格投資大規模資本，為未來的實質性實現奠定基礎。我們預計未來幾年 FRE 將大幅擴張，Michael 將對此進行討論。

In conclusion, despite the difficult conditions that come with every central bank tightening cycle, I am extremely confident that Blackstone, as always, will prosper and grow even stronger in the future. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jon.

總之，儘管每次央行緊縮週期都會帶來困難，但我非常有信心黑石將一如既往地繁榮發展，並在未來變得更加強大。有了這個，我會把它交給喬恩。

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Despite the challenging quarter, Blackstone delivered both for our customers and shareholders. And with 4 powerful engines of growth and record dry powder capital to invest, we are ideally positioned for the road ahead. The foundation of our business remains investment performance. The way we positioned investor capital over the past several years is driving differentiated returns today, as Steve noted.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家，早安。儘管本季度充滿挑戰，Blackstone 還是為我們的客戶和股東提供了服務。憑藉 4 個強大的增長引擎和創紀錄的干粉資本投資，我們處於前進道路的理想位置。我們業務的基礎仍然是投資業績。正如史蒂夫指出的那樣，我們在過去幾年中定位投資者資本的方式正在推動今天的差異化回報。

We've been preparing for an environment of rising rates and a normalization of market multiples for some time. And the facts on the ground across our global portfolio suggested inflation would be higher and more persistent than many believed. These views informed our investing, leading us towards owning floating rate debt, hard assets with shorter duration income streams and high-quality companies with limited exposure to input costs and with pricing power.

一段時間以來，我們一直在為利率上升和市場倍數正常化的環境做準備。我們全球投資組合的實際情況表明，通脹將比許多人認為的更高、更持久。這些觀點為我們的投資提供了參考，使我們轉向擁有浮動利率債務、收入流持續時間較短的硬資產以及投入成本敞口有限且具有定價能力的優質公司。

We also have pursued attractive cyclical opportunities such as the travel recovery thing, and we did not lose our discipline even as we invested in faster-growing sectors, always keeping a sharp focus on profitability. Nowhere are the benefits of our thematic approach more apparent than in our $320 billion real estate business, which just reported a record quarter. Performance remains outstanding, the output of our emphasis on sectors where rent growth continues to meaningfully outpace inflation. In logistics and rental housing, our 2 largest exposures, fundamentals are the strongest we've seen.

我們還追求有吸引力的周期性機會，例如旅遊復甦，即使我們投資於增長更快的行業，我們也沒有失去自律，始終高度關注盈利能力。我們的主題方法的好處在我們 3200 億美元的房地產業務中最為明顯，該業務剛剛報告了創紀錄的季度。表現仍然出色，我們強調租金增長繼續顯著超過通貨膨脹的行業的產出。在物流和出租房屋這兩個最大的風險敞口中，基本面是我們所見過的最強勁的。

In logistics, e-commerce tailwinds and corporates moving away from just-in-time inventory have driven vacancy towards all-time low levels. We estimate rental growth in our U.S. and Canadian logistics markets exceeded 40% year-over-year in the second quarter. And in our U.S. multifamily markets, rents grew 19% based on the most recent data for May.

在物流方面，電子商務的順風和企業擺脫即時庫存的趨勢已將空置率推向歷史最低水平。我們估計第二季度美國和加拿大物流市場的租金同比增長超過 40%。根據 5 月份的最新數據，在我們的美國多戶家庭市場中，租金增長了 19%。

BREIT perfectly exemplifies the strength of our concentrated strategy in these 2 areas with estimated year-to-date growth in same-store property net operating income of 16%. In corporate private equity, revenue growth in our portfolio also remained quite strong in the quarter, up 17% year-over-year for our operating companies, which helped to offset significant increases in labor and input costs. While we were not immune to the market volatility, we saw a strong appreciation in our travel, leisure and energy holdings. These areas comprise 28% of our corporate private equity business compared to a 5% weighting in the S&P 500.

BREIT 完美體現了我們在這兩個領域集中戰略的優勢，預計今年迄今同店物業淨營業收入增長 16%。在企業私募股權方面，我們投資組合的收入在本季度也保持強勁增長，我們運營公司的收入同比增長 17%，這有助於抵消勞動力和投入成本的顯著增長。雖然我們未能免受市場波動的影響，但我們的旅遊、休閒和能源資產大幅升值。這些領域占我們企業私募股權業務的 28%，而標準普爾 500 指數的權重為 5%。

In our credit business, fundamentals remain healthy. Default rates are historically low, and our focus on large senior secured loans has led to an average loan-to-value ratio of just 44% in our U.S. direct lending portfolio with significant borrower equity subordinate to our positions. The value of our assets is further highlighted by our record realization activity in the second quarter. The firm's largest realizations in the quarter and among the largest in our history was a $23 billion recapitalization of last-mile logistics platform Mileway and the $5.7 billion sale of the Cosmopolitan Hotel in Las Vegas in 2 of our favorite secular neighborhoods.

在我們的信貸業務中，基本面保持健康。違約率處於歷史低位，我們對大型高級擔保貸款的關注導致我們在美國直接貸款組合中的平均貸款價值比僅為 44%，其中大量借款人權益從屬於我們的頭寸。我們在第二季度創紀錄的變現活動進一步凸顯了我們資產的價值。該公司在本季度和我們歷史上最大的實現是對最後一英里物流平台 Mileway 進行 230 億美元的資本重組，以及以 57 億美元出售位於我們最喜歡的兩個世俗社區的拉斯維加斯大都會酒店。

Looking forward, volatile markets do mean realizations will likely be muted for some time. However, FRE will continue to provide meaningful ballast to earnings during this period. Conversely, market dislocation creates attractive opportunities to deploy, and our enormous dry powder and long-duration fund structures give us the ability to take advantage of these opportunities as they emerge.

展望未來，動蕩的市場確實意味著實現可能會在一段時間內保持沉默。然而，在此期間，FRE 將繼續為收益提供有意義的壓載物。相反，市場錯位創造了有吸引力的部署機會，而我們龐大的干粉和長期基金結構使我們有能力在這些機會出現時利用它們。

Turning to our 4 engines of growth. Our customers continue to respond favorably to our performance, and our drawdown fund business could not be in a stronger position today. We launched fundraising for our new global real estate flagship in March, targeting $30.3 billion, which is 50% larger than its predecessor and would represent the largest private equity or real estate private equity drawdown fund ever raised.

轉向我們的 4 個增長引擎。我們的客戶繼續對我們的表現作出積極的反應，而我們的提款基金業務今天也無法處於更有利的地位。我們於 3 月啟動了新的全球房地產旗艦項目的籌款活動，目標為 303 億美元，比其前身高出 50%，將是有史以來最大的私募股權或房地產私募股權撤資基金。

In only 3 months, we closed on $24.4 billion, with the remaining capacity already fully allocated. Combined with our BREP funds in Europe and Asia, we will have $50 billion of opportunistic real estate capital to deploy globally, only 12% which is invested today. This is a very advantageous position given the current environment.

僅在 3 個月內，我們就完成了 244 億美元的融資，剩餘產能已全部分配完畢。結合我們在歐洲和亞洲的 BREP 基金，我們將擁有 500 億美元的機會性房地產資本在全球進行部署，而今天僅投資了 12%。鑑於當前的環境，這是一個非常有利的位置。

We've also raised $9 billion to date for our new corporate private equity flagship and expect it to be at least as large as the prior fund. Our private equity secondary flagship is on track to reach its target of approximately $20 billion, the largest secondaries vehicle ever raised. We closed on $3 billion for our new growth equity vehicle and expect to exceed the size of the prior fund here as well. And the list goes on. Overall, we remain highly confident in our $150 million aggregate target for drawdown strategies.

迄今為止，我們還為我們新的企業私募股權旗艦籌集了 90 億美元，並預計其規模至少與之前的基金一樣大。我們的私募股權二級旗艦公司有望實現約 200 億美元的目標，這是有史以來最大的二級市場融資工具。我們為新的成長型股票工具籌集了 30 億美元，預計也將超過之前基金的規模。而這樣的例子不勝枚舉。總體而言，我們對 1.5 億美元的提款策略總目標仍然充滿信心。

Moving to our institutional perpetual capital platform, which has grown rapidly and now exceeds $100 billion. Our institutional real estate Core+ strategy, BPP, is $74 billion across 25 different vehicles, including $8 billion of additional perpetual capital raised in the second quarter for the Mileway recapitalization. As a reminder, we have 4 open-ended institutional BPP strategies focused on North America, Asia, Europe and the life sciences sector that can continuously raise capital. We also have perpetual closed-end and co-investment vehicles, including Logicor and Mileway in Europe, Stuyvesant Town in New York, Canadian industrial, Japanese apartments and more.

轉向我們的機構永續資本平台，該平台發展迅速，現已超過 1000 億美元。我們的機構房地產核心 + 戰略 BPP 涉及 25 種不同的工具，價值 740 億美元，其中包括在第二季度為 Mileway 資本重組籌集的 80 億美元額外永久資本。提醒一下，我們有 4 個開放式機構 BPP 戰略，專注於北美、亞洲、歐洲和可以持續籌集資金的生命科學領域。我們還擁有永久封閉式和聯合投資工具，包括歐洲的 Logicor 和 Mileway、紐約的 Stuyvesant Town、加拿大工業、日本公寓等。

Our infrastructure strategy has grown to $30 billion with an additional $3 billion raised in the second quarter and over $12 billion of inflows since reopening to new capital late last year. Both BPP and our infrastructure platform continue to benefit from their focus on hard assets and great sectors where inflation is further limiting new supply.

我們的基礎設施戰略已增至 300 億美元，第二季度又籌集了 30 億美元，自去年底重新開放新資本以來，資金流入超過 120 億美元。 BPP 和我們的基礎設施平台繼續受益於他們對硬資產和通脹進一步限制新供應的重要行業的關注。

Turning to retail. Sales in the channel were $15.5 billion in the quarter. For our 3 perpetual products, BREIT, BCRED and BEPIF, sales totaled a robust $11 billion with an additional $2.4 billion of monthly subscriptions on July 1. We do offer limited repurchases within these vehicles, which increased in the quarter to $2.9 billion, driven by Asia-based retail investors.

轉向零售。本季度該渠道的銷售額為 155 億美元。 7 月 1 日，我們的 3 款永久產品 BREIT、BCRED 和 BEPIF 的銷售額總計達到 110 億美元，每月訂閱量增加了 24 億美元。我們確實在這些工具中提供了有限的回購，在本季度增加至 29 億美元，這主要得益於亞洲散戶投資者。

As we saw in 2020, retail net flows are impacted in a volatile market environment. But the key long term is that our investment performance for our 3 perpetual vehicles remains very strong as does the positioning of their respective portfolios. Looking forward, we have more perpetual products in registration, and we continue to add distribution partners around the world.

正如我們在 2020 年看到的那樣，零售淨流量在動蕩的市場環境中受到影響。但關鍵的長期是，我們對 3 種永續工具的投資表現仍然非常強勁，它們各自投資組合的定位也是如此。展望未來，我們有更多的永久產品在註冊中，我們將繼續在全球範圍內增加分銷合作夥伴。

Finally, on insurance, our business has more than doubled in the past 12 months to over $150 billion, and we are seeing continued organic flows from our clients totaling $3 billion year-to-date. We are focused on delivering for them, and we're also pursuing a variety of additional growth opportunities on a balance sheet-light basis.

最後，在保險方面，我們的業務在過去 12 個月中翻了一番多，達到 1500 億美元以上，而且我們看到今年迄今為止來自客戶的持續有機流量總計 30 億美元。我們專注於為他們提供服務，我們還在資產負債表的基礎上尋求各種額外的增長機會。

In closing, we have both the staying power and firepower to thrive in this challenging environment as we have for 36 years. Our strategy remains the same as always. We are an asset-light, brand-heavy investment manager focused on delivering exceptional returns for our clients, which creates both near-term dividends and long-term appreciation for our shareholders.

最後，我們擁有 36 年來在這個充滿挑戰的環境中茁壯成長的持久力和火力。我們的戰略一如既往。我們是一家輕資產、重品牌的投資經理，專注於為我們的客戶提供卓越的回報，為我們的股東創造短期紅利和長期增值。

With that, I will turn things over to Michael.

有了這個，我會把事情交給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. For the past several years, we've been highlighting the continuing expansion and transformation of our AUM and earnings. At our Investor Day in 2018, we first shared the message about a meaningful step-up in earnings power, driven by the combination of: first, the drawdown fundraising cycle, at the time consisting of 5 flagships targeting $60 billion; and second, the growing contribution of our perpetual capital platform. Over the subsequent 4 years, our asset and earnings base and quality have expanded dramatically, powered by these factors.

謝謝，喬恩，大家早上好。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在強調我們的資產管理規模和收益的持續擴張和轉型。在 2018 年的投資者日上，我們首次分享了有關盈利能力顯著提升的信息，其驅動因素包括：首先，資金縮編週期，當時由 5 家旗艦公司組成，目標為 600 億美元；其次，我們永續資本平台的貢獻越來越大。在隨後的 4 年中，在這些因素的推動下，我們的資產和盈利基礎和質量大幅提升。

Firm's second quarter results reflected another definitive step on this journey. Meanwhile, the key elements of the forward outlook favorably resemble our setup 4 years ago, with a new drawdown fund cycle underway and a growing array of perpetual strategies. I'll discuss each of these areas in more detail.

公司的第二季度業績反映了這一旅程的另一個決定性步驟。與此同時，遠期展望的關鍵要素與我們 4 年前的設置非常相似，新的資金回撤週期正在進行中，永續策略的數量也在增加。我將更詳細地討論這些領域中的每一個。

Starting with results. The exceptional range of growth engines firing across the firm has continued to propel AUM to new record levels. Management fees grew 28% year-over-year to a record $1.6 billion in the second quarter and were up 6% sequentially from Q1. Combined with $347 million of fee-related performance revenues in the second quarter generated by a variety of perpetual vehicles, total fee revenues exceeded $1.9 billion, up 51% year-over-year.

從結果開始。整個公司的非凡增長引擎持續推動 AUM 達到新的創紀錄水平。第二季度管理費同比增長 28%，達到創紀錄的 16 億美元，環比增長 6%。加上第二季度各種永續工具產生的費用相關業績收入 3.47 億美元，總費用收入超過 19 億美元，同比增長 51%。

Fee-related earnings increased 45% year-over-year to $1 billion, reflecting the strong growth in fee revenues. With respect to FRE margin, as we've stated before, it's most informative to look over multiple quarters given intra-year movements. On a year-to-date basis, FRE margin was 55.1%, in line with the prior year comparable period despite a significant step-up in T&E expense from muted levels last year.

與費用相關的收入同比增長 45% 至 10 億美元，反映了費用收入的強勁增長。關於 FRE 利潤率，正如我們之前所說，鑑於年內變動，查看多個季度的信息最為豐富。年初至今，FRE 利潤率為 55.1%，與去年同期持平，儘管 T&E 費用從去年的低水平大幅上升。

As we noted then, the COVID-related reduction in T&E spend was a benefit that would eventually reverse. Adjusting for this impact, year-to-date 2022 margins were stable with the full year 2021 as well. For 2022, we expect full year margin to be approximately in the same 55% area, reflecting expansion of over 200 basis points in 2 years and 900 basis points in 4 years.

正如我們當時指出的那樣，與 COVID 相關的 T&E 支出減少是一種最終會逆轉的好處。調整這一影響後，2022 年年初至今的利潤率與 2021 年全年保持穩定。對於 2022 年，我們預計全年利潤率將保持在相同的 55% 範圍內，反映出 2 年內擴張超過 200 個基點，4 年內擴張超過 900 個基點。

Distributable earnings increased 86% year-over-year to $2.0 billion in the second quarter or $1.49 per share driven by strong growth in both FRE and net realizations. Net realizations rose over 2.5 fold to a record $1.3 billion, powered by Mileway and The Cosmopolitan. While the overall effect of the current environment will be to slow realizations in the near term, our performance revenue potential continues to build. Invested performance revenue eligible AUM grew 39% year-over-year to a record $487 billion. Net accrued performance revenues on the balance sheet stand at $7.5 billion or over $6 per share. While down from a record level in Q1, primarily due to realizations, this store value is still up 11% year-over-year and is up nearly threefold from the same period 2 years ago.

由於 FRE 和淨實現的強勁增長，第二季度可分配收益同比增長 86% 至 20 億美元或每股 1.49 美元。在 Mileway 和 The Cosmopolitan 的支持下，淨變現增長了 2.5 倍以上，達到創紀錄的 13 億美元。雖然當前環境的整體影響將在短期內減緩實現，但我們的業績收入潛力仍在繼續建立。符合條件的投資業績收入資產管理規模同比增長 39%，達到創紀錄的 4870 億美元。資產負債表上的淨應計業績收入為 75 億美元或每股超過 6 美元。雖然低於第一季度的創紀錄水平，主要是由於變現，但該商店價值仍同比增長 11%，比兩年前同期增長近三倍。

Turning to the outlook. Similar to the road map we provided 4 years ago, we believe the combination of the firm's latest drawdown fundraising cycle and the ongoing expansion and scaling of our perpetual capital platform will lead to a structural step-up in the firm's FRE over the next several years. First, our $150 billion target across 18 drawdown funds represents an increase of over 25% compared to their prior vintages. This engine alone should add approximately 20% to FRE as these funds are raised and activated over time. We expect to launch the new $30 billion real estate flagship in early fall with an effective 4-month fee holiday for first closers. We will launch other funds at various points over the coming quarters depending on deployment.

轉向前景。與我們 4 年前提供的路線圖類似，我們相信公司最近的提款籌資週期與我們永續資本平台的持續擴張和規模化相結合，將導致公司未來幾年的 FRE 結構性提升.首先，我們在 18 個提款基金中的 1500 億美元目標與之前的年份相比增長了 25% 以上。隨著這些資金隨著時間的推移被籌集和激活，僅這個引擎就應該為 FRE 增加大約 20%。我們預計將在初秋推出價值 300 億美元的新房地產旗艦店，並為首次收盤者提供 4 個月的有效費用假期。我們將根據部署在未來幾個季度的不同時間點推出其他基金。

At the same time, and alongside the drawdown funds, our perpetual capital platform has expanded dramatically since Investor Day. In the past 12 months alone, perpetual AUM more than doubled to $356 billion, consisting of 21 strategies across 51 discrete vehicles with more in development. Most of these vehicles generate recurring fee-related performance revenues, and momentum in this high-quality earnings stream continues to build. Indeed, perpetual strategies now comprise 45% of the firm's total performance revenue eligible AUM in the ground or $219 billion, reflecting a model that is less and less dependent on asset sales.

與此同時，隨著資金回撤，我們的永續資本平台自投資者日以來已大幅擴張。僅在過去 12 個月中，永久資產管理規模就翻了一番多，達到 3560 億美元，其中包括 21 種策略，涉及 51 種離散車輛，還有更多正在開發中。這些工具中的大多數都會產生與費用相關的經常性業績收入，並且這種高質量收入流的勢頭繼續增強。事實上，永續策略現在占公司總業績收入合格資產管理規模的 45%，即 2190 億美元，這反映了一種越來越不依賴資產銷售的模式。

In the past, we referred to the layering effect of these revenues as crystallization events occur on different cycles across strategies. In the case of BPP in particular, we expect to see a meaningful step-up in fee-related performance revenues in 2023, with 4x more BPP AUM subject to crystallization than in 2022. Overall, our perpetual platform, including both institutional and retail strategies, has been a key driver of the firm's evolution towards higher and more recurring earnings, a progression we expect to continue.

過去，我們將這些收入的分層效應稱為結晶事件發生在跨戰略的不同周期。特別是在 BPP 的情況下，我們預計 2023 年與費用相關的業績收入將出現有意義的增長，與 2022 年相比，需要結晶的 BPP AUM 將增加 4 倍。總體而言，我們的永久平台，包括機構和零售策略，一直是公司向更高和更多經常性收益發展的關鍵驅動力，我們預計這一進展將繼續。

So in closing, as Blackstone moves into the second half of 2022, despite the many uncertainties in the world, we are highly confident in the future. Our business model is set up to provide extraordinary resiliency in difficult times as shown throughout our history. At the same time, we have multiple engines of growth driving us forward and are putting in place the foundation for a material step-up in FRE.

所以最後，隨著黑石進入 2022 年下半年，儘管世界上存在許多不確定性，但我們對未來充滿信心。正如我們的歷史所展示的那樣，我們的商業模式旨在在困難時期提供非凡的彈性。與此同時，我們有多個增長引擎推動我們前進，並正在為 FRE 的物質升級奠定基礎。

With that, thank you for joining the call and would like to open it up now for questions.

有了這個，感謝您加入電話會議，並希望現在打開它以提問。

(Operator Instructions) And with that, our first question is coming from the line of Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

which we hear is getting a bit tougher. But then when we look at your results, you raised a staggering amount of capital in the quarter. So just curious, your perspectives on the broader fundraising backdrop here for the industry. And then how do you expect the balance of the year to play out for Blackstone? And then any additional help you can provide around how to think about the fee activations and timing around that into the -- for the rest of the year and into '23 and what that means for the financial profile.

我們聽到的情況變得更加艱難。但是當我們查看您的結果時，您在本季度籌集了驚人的資金。所以只是好奇，你對這個行業更廣泛的籌款背景的看法。那麼您預計黑石今年的餘額將如何發揮作用？然後，您可以提供任何其他幫助，包括如何考慮費用激活和圍繞這一點的時間 - 在今年剩餘時間和 23 年以及這對財務狀況意味著什麼。

Thanks, Mike. I would say on the fundraising front, it is getting harder out there. I think there was some Preqin or Bain data that was out this last week that showed private equity fundraising in the first half of the year was down 43%. It's particularly tough in North America private equity with institutions. And I think you'll probably hear about more of this from others in the industry, both public and private participants.

謝謝，邁克。我想說的是，在籌款方面，那裡變得越來越難了。我認為上週發布的一些 Preqin 或 Bain 數據顯示，今年上半年的私募股權融資下降了 43%。在北美的機構私募股權中尤其艱難。我想你可能會從業內其他人那裡聽到更多關於這方面的信息，包括公共和私人參與者。

I think the key, as you saw in the numbers here and our reaffirmation of our $150 billion target, is that we are in a differentiated spot. It reflects our track record over time, the relationships we've built with LPs. I mean to raise a $30-plus billion fund in 90 days is pretty staggering, it would be, in a good environment, but to do it in an environment where markets are falling sharply is especially impressive.

我認為，正如您在此處的數字和我們重申 1500 億美元目標中所看到的那樣，關鍵是我們處於一個與眾不同的位置。它反映了我們長期以來的業績記錄，以及我們與有限合夥人建立的關係。我的意思是在 90 天內籌集到 30 多億美元的基金是相當驚人的，在良好的環境下會如此，但在市場急劇下跌的環境中做到這一點尤其令人印象深刻。

And so what we're seeing with us is we have this very broad platform. We're in secondaries and credit, hedge funds, private equity, infrastructure, life sciences. We raise capital around the world, U.S., Canada, Middle East, Asia, Australia. And we do it, of course, in different channels, not only the institutional channel, but in retail and insurance now. And so I think that gives us an ability to do things that others can't. We would continue to expect we'll raise money.

所以我們看到的是我們擁有這個非常廣泛的平台。我們在二級市場和信貸、對沖基金、私募股權、基礎設施、生命科學領域。我們在世界各地、美國、加拿大、中東、亞洲和澳大利亞籌集資金。當然，我們在不同的渠道中這樣做，不僅是機構渠道，現在還包括零售和保險。所以我認為這讓我們有能力做別人做不到的事情。我們將繼續期待我們會籌集資金。

It is a more challenging environment, but I think it will hit some others probably in a more adverse way. We don't have as broad a platform, maybe not the same track record, maybe not the same depths of relationships. So a more challenging environment, and this is where a firm like Blackstone really shines. In terms of the financial, I don't know if there's anything you want to add, Michael.

這是一個更具挑戰性的環境，但我認為它可能會以更不利的方式打擊其他一些人。我們沒有那麼廣泛的平台，也許不一樣的記錄，也許不一樣的關係深度。這是一個更具挑戰性的環境，而這正是像 Blackstone 這樣的公司真正閃耀的地方。在財務方面，我不知道你是否有什麼要補充的，邁克爾。

Mike, I referred to how the fundraising cycle, and there's sort of 20-or-so discrete strategies that these vehicles have launched and will continue to launch over the course of the coming quarters depending on deployment. And so I mentioned the big new BREP global fund that we expected to launch in the early fall, subject to the standard fee holiday. And then I think beyond that, you'll see, depending on deployment, more funds launching. And I would say in terms of -- you'll see a substantial impact from that in 2023. And then in terms of full fees from the broader sweep of those funds, much of that in 2024 we would expect, but again, it's deployment dependent.

邁克，我提到了籌款週期，這些工具已經推出了 20 種左右的離散策略，並將根據部署在未來幾個季度繼續推出。因此，我提到了我們預計將在初秋推出的大型新 BREP 全球基金，但須遵守標準費用假期。然後我認為除此之外，你會看到，根據部署，更多的資金會啟動。我想說的是——你會在 2023 年看到由此產生的重大影響。然後就更廣泛的這些基金的全額費用而言，我們預計 2024 年的大部分費用，但同樣，它是部署依賴。

Our second question is coming from the line of Ken Worthington from JPMorgan.

我們的第二個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Worthington。

There seems to be a disconnect in terms of what we're seeing and the message we're hearing from management in terms of the resiliency of the business and the perception by investors of this resiliency. So can you help us reconcile this perception divide and what might seem intuitive and logical for investors about the flow-through of macro factors through private markets investing and why that's not as bad as they think? And in particular, BREIT and BCRED seem to be areas of concern. Do you see net redemptions as possible in coming months? And how are those funds positioned to manage a period of redemptions beyond redemption limits, particularly if they exhaust cash and credit lines?

就我們所看到的和我們從管理層聽到的關於業務彈性和投資者對這種彈性的看法而言，似乎存在脫節。那麼，您能否幫助我們調和這種看法分歧，以及對於投資者來說，宏觀因素通過私人市場投資流入的直覺和邏輯，以及為什麼這沒有他們想像的那麼糟糕？尤其是，BREIT 和 BCRED 似乎是值得關注的領域。您是否認為未來幾個月可能出現淨贖回？這些基金如何管理超過贖回限額的贖回期，尤其是在它們用盡現金和信貸額度的情況下？

Okay. That is a long question, Ken. I guess I'd start with what we think is a misperception about the business. And it may go back in time to the fact that these businesses used to have a narrower base, were engaged in a relatively small number of activities and had a small number of customers. And as we've talked about on past calls, we really see ourselves having moved into these much more open waters. Alternatives have gone from being sort of a niche business to something that's broadly accepted that the performance has proven resilient, and that has given customers more and more confidence.

好的。這是一個很長的問題，肯。我想我會從我們認為對業務的誤解開始。這可能要追溯到這些企業過去的基礎較窄、從事的活動相對較少、客戶數量較少的事實。正如我們在過去的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們真的看到自己已經進入了這些更加開放的水域。替代品已經從某種利基業務轉變為被廣泛接受的性能已被證明具有彈性的東西，這給了客戶越來越多的信心。

That's why even different than '08, '09, customers recognize that this is a great vintage. We said on the call, we expect to raise a private equity fund equal in size. We expect to raise a growth fund, similarly, even larger than the last fund. In previous cycles, investors may have shied away. Now because of our track record and confidence in the industry, investors recognize this is a compelling time to invest in this space.

這就是為什麼與 '08、'09 不同，客戶認為這是一個很棒的年份。我們在電話會議上表示，我們預計將籌集同等規模的私募股權基金。同樣，我們預計將募集一隻增長基金，甚至比上一隻基金還要大。在之前的周期中，投資者可能會迴避。現在，由於我們的業績記錄和對該行業的信心，投資者認識到現在是投資該領域的絕佳時機。

I'd also point out that the way the business is built, we talk about both staying power and firepower. So on the staying power front, we have a firm, Steve articulated, that has virtually no net debt, no insurance liabilities. We are a very well-capitalized business for any kind of environment. And then our funds are set up in ways where we are not forced sellers of assets. So when we go through periods of dislocation, we're able to ride through them.

我還要指出，業務的建立方式，我們談論持久力和火力。因此，在持久力方面，我們有一家公司，史蒂夫明確表示，它幾乎沒有淨債務，也沒有保險負債。對於任何類型的環境，我們都是一家資本充足的企業。然後我們的資金是以我們不會被迫出售資產的方式建立的。因此，當我們經歷錯位時期時，我們能夠度過難關。

If you look back at our data, over 30-plus years, interestingly, our funds that have been through recessions produced the same multiple of invested capital. It just takes a little longer to get there. And people who have been around the business, I think, understand that.

如果你回顧我們的數據，30 多年來，有趣的是，我們經歷過衰退的基金產生了相同倍數的投資資本。到達那裡只需要更長的時間。我認為，從事該行業的人都明白這一點。

The other factor here that I would point to is we've got all this dry powder. And I think that's going to prove to be very advantageous, both in terms of FRE, but taking advantage of a difficult market.

我要指出的另一個因素是我們已經得到了所有這些乾粉。而且我認為這將被證明是非常有利的，無論是在 FRE 方面，還是利用困難的市場。

And then I would talk about where we've deployed capital. We've been really focused on what we call good neighborhoods. We've been talking to all of you now for 18 months about inflation. And so when you look at our portfolios, they don't necessarily reflect the market overall. So we've got 28% in private equity, in travel and energy. That's different than the market. In real estate, where we have a large portion of our portfolio, in residential and rental housing and logistics, very different than the overall market. In fixed income, our BXC, our credit business and our BREDS real estate debt business are heavily oriented virtually all to floating rate debt, obviously, very important.

然後我會談談我們在哪裡部署了資金。我們一直專注於我們所謂的好社區。 18 個月來，我們一直在與大家討論通貨膨脹問題。因此，當您查看我們的投資組合時，它們不一定反映整個市場。因此，我們在私人股本、旅遊和能源領域擁有 28% 的份額。這與市場不同。在房地產領域，我們擁有很大一部分投資組合，在住宅和出租房屋以及物流領域，與整體市場非常不同。在固定收益方面，我們的 BXC、我們的信貸業務和我們的 BREDS 房地產債務業務幾乎都以浮動利率債務為導向，顯然非常重要。

And when you look at some of the products, pivoting to -- you specifically asked about BREIT and BCRED, the fact that they're designed for an inflationary environment gives us a lot of confidence. In the case of BCRED, you've got floating rate debt. So every time the Fed raises rates, returns go higher. In the case of BREIT, you own short-duration hard assets, in that case, 80% residential housing and logistics, where the fundamentals are phenomenally strong.

當您查看某些產品時，轉向-您特別詢問了 BREIT 和 BCRED，它們專為通貨膨脹環境而設計的事實使我們充滿信心。就 BCRED 而言，您有浮動利率債務。因此，每次美聯儲加息時，回報都會更高。在 BREIT 的情況下，你擁有短期硬資產，在這種情況下，80% 的住宅和物流，其基本面非常強勁。

I guess I should just comment specifically the question was about redemption in those 2 vehicles. I'd say a number of things. First of all, if you look at the data in the quarter, overall in retail, we had $15.5 billion of inflows, very remarkable. In the 3 products, primarily BREIT and BCRED, but also our European product, BEPIF, we had $11 billion of inflows in the quarter. We did have $3 billion of redemptions -- the $2.9 billion of redemptions. I would also point out on July 1, which doesn't show up in the quarterly data, we had another $2.4 billion of inflows.

我想我應該特別評論一下這個問題是關於那兩輛車的贖回。我想說幾件事。首先，如果您查看本季度的數據，總體而言，我們有 155 億美元的流入，非常了不起。在這 3 種產品中，主要是 BREIT 和 BCRED，還有我們的歐洲產品 BEPIF，我們在本季度有 110 億美元的資金流入。我們確實有 30 億美元的贖回——29 億美元的贖回。我還要指出，在 7 月 1 日，季度數據中沒有顯示，我們還有 24 億美元的資金流入。

So these are products that have a lot of momentum. I would point out that we operate them with low leverage. In the case of BCRED, it's around 1:1. In the case of BREIT, I think, as of the latest quarter, it's right at or slightly below 40% leverage. We also run them with significant amount of liquidity, excess liquidity to meet our clients' needs over time.

所以這些都是有很大動力的產品。我要指出的是，我們以低杠桿操作它們。在 BCRED 的情況下，大約是 1:1。就 BREIT 而言，我認為，截至最近一個季度，它的槓桿率正好處於或略低於 40%。我們還以大量流動性和過剩流動性來運行它們，以滿足我們客戶的長期需求。

And I think it's super, super important to focus on the fact that these portfolios have delivered extraordinary performance. Steve articulated this, but in markets that are down sharply, the fact that BCRED has managed to produce slightly positive performance, BREIT, I think, is up over 7% net this year. That's really exceptional. And again, it goes back to what we own in these portfolios. And so being positioned in the right place for a good environment and then having a terrific product to address it, we think, is really important.

而且我認為關注這些投資組合提供了非凡的表現這一事實是非常非常重要的。史蒂夫闡明了這一點，但在急劇下跌的市場中，我認為 BCRED 設法產生了略微積極的表現這一事實，BREIT 今年淨上漲了 7% 以上。這真的很特別。再一次，它可以追溯到我們在這些投資組合中擁有的東西。因此，我們認為，定位在正確的位置以獲得良好的環境，然後擁有出色的產品來解決它，這非常重要。

I would also say as a final point in these vehicles, of course, beyond the enormous amounts of liquidity we run them with, we also have structures here again that make sure we never have to be a forced seller. So we've been really thoughtful in designing them. But the thing that gives us the greatest confidence is individual investors are continuing to allocate capital, and the performance and the positioning is so strong.

我還要說，作為這些工具的最後一點，當然，除了我們運行它們的大量流動性之外，我們這裡也有確保我們永遠不必成為強制賣家的結構。所以我們在設計它們時非常周到。但給我們最大信心的是散戶在持續配置資金，業績和定位如此強勁。

Our next question is coming from Alexander Blostein from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexander Blostein。

So Jon, maybe building on the retail theme a little bit more here. So you guys have provided a lot of data and evidence that support how large that addressable market is for Blackstone. And as you think about the more turbulent market conditions, what do you hear from some of the larger distribution partners, individual financial advisers, et cetera, as they're thinking about both the gross sales and potential for larger redemptions from some of these vehicles? So -- because to your point, performance has been extraordinary relative to fixed income markets being down double digits year-to-date. So if there are redemptions, what are the main reasons?

所以喬恩，也許在這裡更多地建立零售主題。因此，你們提供了大量數據和證據，支持 Blackstone 的潛在市場有多大。當您考慮更加動蕩的市場條件時，您從一些較大的分銷合作夥伴、個人財務顧問等那裡聽到了什麼，因為他們正在考慮這些車輛的總銷售額和更大贖回的潛力?所以 - 因為就你的觀點而言，相對於固定收益市場今年迄今下跌兩位數而言，表現一直非同尋常。那麼如果有贖回，主要原因是什麼？

And b, as you're thinking about launching a lot of new products, you guys have a couple of things in Europe, there are some headlines in Asia. How are you thinking about scaling those products in the more challenging macro backdrop?

b，當你們考慮推出很多新產品時，你們在歐洲有幾件事，在亞洲有一些頭條新聞。您如何考慮在更具挑戰性的宏觀背景下擴展這些產品？

So I would say, Alex, near term, when you have this kind of market volatility, you would expect to see net flows to slow. We saw this, by the way, back in 2020. It was a short period, but we saw back then a pretty dramatic decline in net flows. We continued to execute. And of course, that turned over time the other direction. And of course, if you look at IPO markets or other areas, we've seen much sharper declines relative to what we've experienced here.

所以我想說，亞歷克斯，短期內，當你有這種市場波動時，你會期望看到淨流量會放緩。順便說一句，我們早在 2020 年就看到了這一點。那是一段很短的時期，但當時我們看到淨流量大幅下降。我們繼續執行。當然，這讓時間轉向了另一個方向。當然，如果你看看 IPO 市場或其他領域，我們看到的跌幅比我們在這裡經歷的要大得多。

When we talk to our distribution partners, I think what they would say and what we see in our data, and I mentioned, most of the repurchases, as we call them, are coming from a smaller subset of our investors in Asia. And the majority of investors here in the United States have been fairly stable. I would say investors, the feedback are they like these products. They like the performance of these products, and that's the reason we're continuing to sell them.

當我們與我們的分銷合作夥伴交談時，我認為他們會說什麼以及我們在數據中看到什麼，我提到過，大部分回購，正如我們所說的，來自我們在亞洲的一小部分投資者。美國的大多數投資者都相當穩定。我會說投資者，反饋是他們喜歡這些產品。他們喜歡這些產品的性能，這就是我們繼續銷售它們的原因。

If the markets continue to be challenging, then you can expect that it's a more difficult period for net flows. But then again, I go back to we've got products that are well designed with ample liquidity. And then again, you look at the numbers on the ground. And I think this is where it's worthwhile to talk about what's happening. So in BREIT, we mentioned that same-store net operating income was up 16% in the quarter. That's well above, I think, almost any public real estate company today, and it speaks to the positioning and the geographic positioning as well.

如果市場繼續充滿挑戰，那麼您可以預期這是淨流量更加困難的時期。但話又說回來，我們有設計良好且流動性充足的產品。然後再一次，你看看地面上的數字。我認為這是值得談論正在發生的事情的地方。因此，在 BREIT 中，我們提到本季度同店淨營業收入增長了 16%。我認為，這遠高於當今幾乎所有的上市房地產公司，它也說明了定位和地理定位。

Rental growth is even higher in these portfolios. And what that allows us to do or has allowed to happen here is between the dividends we pay and the growth, the multiples have come down in terms of the valuation metrics, and yet we've still managed to deliver positive performance. And that's what we're seeing out there, which is incredible performance on the ground. And in BCRED, again, as I said, floating rate will help a lot.

這些投資組合的租金增長甚至更高。這讓我們能夠或已經允許在這裡發生的事情是在我們支付的股息和增長之間，就估值指標而言，倍數已經下降，但我們仍然設法實現了積極的業績。這就是我們所看到的，這是令人難以置信的實地表現。正如我所說，在 BCRED 中，浮動利率也會有很大幫助。

So the short answer is in a choppy environment, you could see a tougher retail net flows environment. But you're continuing to see meaningful positive flows. You saw it again at the beginning of July, and we're continuing to see strong performance. And that's what we think will continue to make a big difference.

因此，簡短的回答是在動蕩的環境中，您可能會看到更加艱難的零售淨流量環境。但你會繼續看到有意義的積極流動。您在 7 月初再次看到它，我們將繼續看到強勁的表現。這就是我們認為將繼續產生重大影響的東西。

Our next question is coming from Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

I guess I just want to drill down on the concept that we talked in the past about higher rates. And you mentioned the clear obvious, it's great to be a lender with lots of floating rate debt when rates are rising. And so you benefit from that. I guess the flip side is you invest in companies that are levered. And so I'm curious if you can address the positioning of the portfolio and what types of companies, while rates were 0 and spreads were so low for so long, roll with floating rate debt instead of locking in fixed rate. And if I could, just on the same topic of high rates, do you think that slows demand for private credit products in general as a competitive thing?

我想我只是想深入了解我們過去談到的更高利率的概念。你提到了一個顯而易見的問題，當利率上升時，成為一家擁有大量浮動利率債務的貸方真是太好了。所以你會從中受益。我想另一方面是你投資於有槓桿的公司。因此，我很好奇您是否可以解決投資組合的定位以及哪些類型的公司，而利率為 0 且利差如此之低這麼長時間，使用浮動利率債務滾動而不是鎖定固定利率。如果可以的話，就高利率這個話題來說，你認為這會減緩對私人信貸產品的總體需求嗎？

When transaction activity slows, that can impact deal volumes in terms of originating private credit, although in this environment, the banks have grown more cautious, and that's creating an opportunity for private lenders. In terms of our portfolio, it really varies. We've been talking a bunch about BREIT. In that case, virtually all of the debt, we fix long term. We do that similarly in our perpetual vehicles like BPP. We have a lot of fixed rate debt in our infrastructure business as well because these are long-term hold assets.

當交易活動放緩時，可能會影響發起私人信貸的交易量，儘管在這種環境下，銀行變得更加謹慎，這為私人貸方創造了機會。就我們的投資組合而言，它確實各不相同。我們一直在談論 BREIT。在那種情況下，幾乎所有的債務，我們都會長期解決。我們在像 BPP 這樣的永久車輛中也這樣做。我們的基礎設施業務也有很多固定利率債務，因為這些是長期持有資產。

BCP has also been pretty disciplined in fixing out a trade. That's our private equity business, maybe not quite as much as we do in some of our long-duration real estate or infrastructure products. And then I would say in our opportunistic real estate business, we have more floating rate debt. But again, we're much more lowly leveraged than we were in the past. And so when I look at sort of where our portfolio sits, our leverage, our coverage versus 15 years ago and the stability of the type of assets we own, we feel so much better.

BCP 在解決交易方面也非常自律。那是我們的私募股權業務，可能不如我們在某些長期房地產或基礎設施產品中所做的那麼多。然後我會說，在我們的機會主義房地產業務中，我們有更多的浮動利率債務。但同樣，我們的槓桿率比過去低得多。因此，當我查看我們的投資組合所處的位置、我們的槓桿率、我們的覆蓋率與 15 年前相比以及我們擁有的資產類型的穩定性時，我們感覺好多了。

And by the way, it's not just us. If you look at the default rates across the credit world, it's still pretty low. So yes, higher rates will impact the net cash flow you have to distribute and also, of course, has an impact on multiples, and we're seeing that in the marketplace. But overall, we don't see that as being a major issue for our portfolio.

順便說一句，不僅僅是我們。如果您查看整個信貸領域的違約率，它仍然很低。所以是的，更高的利率會影響你必須分配的淨現金流，當然，也會影響倍數，我們在市場上看到了這一點。但總的來說，我們認為這不是我們投資組合的主要問題。

Our following question is coming from Craig Siegenthaler from Bank of America.

我們的以下問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

My question is on the underlying leverage for BREIT, BPP and BCRED. And I appreciate the comments for 1:1 for BCRED and 40% for BREIT, but what type of flexibility do you have in each of these 3 vehicles to move leverage up or down, especially considering the M&A pipeline at both BREIT and BPP?

我的問題是關於 BREIT、BPP 和 BCRED 的潛在槓桿。我很欣賞 BCRED 1:1 和 BREIT 40% 的評論，但是您在這 3 種工具中的每一種中都有什麼樣的靈活性來提高或降低杠桿率，特別是考慮到 BREIT 和 BPP 的併購渠道？

So we have meaningful additional capacity in both of these vehicles in order to obviously meet our investment requirements, but also if there are liquidity requirements, sizable excess liquidity, I don't know what's disclosed in the documents for these vehicles. But I would just characterize it as quite significant. We've created these products recognizing you could go through a more challenging period of time. And so that is definitely not something we view as an issue.

因此，為了滿足我們的投資要求，我們在這兩種工具中都有有意義的額外產能，但如果有流動性要求，大量過剩流動性，我不知道這些工具的文件中披露了什麼。但我只是將其描述為非常重要。我們創造了這些產品，認識到您可能會經歷更具挑戰性的時期。所以這絕對不是我們認為的問題。

Our next question is coming from Robert Lee from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Robert Lee。

I was wondering if it would be possible to maybe get a little bit more meat on the bone, so to speak, from your FRE expectations. I know you called out the fundraising cycle adding maybe I think it was 20% alone to FRE from -- I'm assuming that's current run rates, but could you maybe break that down like if you had -- how we should think of it from base fees versus fee-related performance revenues. And then it's been, I guess, a long while, maybe 2018, since you updated some kind of growth targets. So any willingness to kind of update what you think is possible over the next, say, 3, 5 years?

我想知道是否有可能從你的 FRE 期望中得到更多的骨頭上的肉。我知道你提到了籌款週期，也許我認為僅從 FRE 到 FRE 就是 20%——我假設這是目前的運行率，但你能不能像你那樣把它分解一下——我們應該怎麼想來自基本費用與與費用相關的績效收入。然後，我想，已經有很長一段時間了，也許是 2018 年，因為你更新了某種增長目標。那麼，是否願意在接下來的 3、5 年內更新您認為可能的內容？

Thanks, Rob. It's Michael. I think you heard it right, a 20% increase from basically run rate FRE levels, which includes management fees and also fee-related performance revenues. So -- but that 20% is coming from just the management fee effect and contribution to FRE overall. So the numerators, the management fee uplift to FRE from this cycle of flagship drawdown fundraising relative to the current run rate FRE base. And that's obviously an estimate, but we feel pretty good about it over the coming years.

謝謝，羅伯。是邁克爾。我想你沒聽錯，比基本運行率 FRE 水平增加了 20%，其中包括管理費和與費用相關的績效收入。所以——但這 20% 僅來自管理費效應和對 FRE 的整體貢獻。因此，分子，相對於當前運行率 FRE 基數，從這個旗艦提款籌款週期到 FRE 的管理費上升。這顯然是一個估計，但我們對未來幾年的感覺非常好。

And then I would just, without putting more numbers to it, go back to what I said in my remarks, which is I think certainly qualitatively, as we look at it in terms of sort of the mix of it, there are parallels to the position we're in, which is very favorable as it relates to uplift from the cycle of fundraising and also perpetual capital, both in terms of growth and the base. And then also we've talked about over time sort of this -- the layering and seasoning effect, if you will, of platforms, including institutional perpetual platforms in BPP and BIP.

然後我會在沒有更多數字的情況下回到我在評論中所說的內容，我認為這肯定是定性的，當我們從混合的角度來看它時，與我們所處的位置非常有利，因為它與融資週期的提升以及永續資本的增長和基數有關。然後隨著時間的推移，我們也談到了這種情況——平台的分層和調味效應，如果你願意的話，包括 BPP 和 BIP 中的機構永久平台。

And for programs like in BPP's case, which are now 6, 7 years old, where those fee-related performance revenues mostly have a 3-year anniversary, you're starting to see those sort of cycle through for a second and third time. So you'll see the benefit of that in the coming years.

對於像 BPP 這樣的項目，現在已經有 6、7 年的歷史了，那些與費用相關的績效收入大多有 3 週年紀念日，你開始第二次和第三次看到這種循環。因此，您將在未來幾年看到這樣做的好處。

Moving on to our next question from Brian Bedell from Deutsche Bank.

繼續我們來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell 的下一個問題。

Maybe I'll just focus on that last point on the performance -- fee-related performance on BREIT and the BPP platform. Just on BREIT, to start, so I think the net return was a little over 2% in the second quarter, but you're making your fees on the gross return, I believe. So maybe, Jon, if you could just talk about the yield component of that and the return profile of that and your optimism on that yield increasing, obviously, as something that would be attractive for retail investors. And then, Michael, just if you could talk a little bit more about the BPP platform, the crystallization timing, what assets are related to that for that 3-year anniversary. I assume that's excluding BREIT.

也許我會只關注性能的最後一點——BREIT 和 BPP 平台上與費用相關的性能。就在 BREIT 開始，所以我認為第二季度的淨回報率略高於 2%，但我相信你正在根據總回報率收取費用。所以也許，喬恩，如果你能談談其中的收益率部分和回報情況，以及你對收益率增加的樂觀態度，顯然，這對散戶投資者很有吸引力。然後，邁克爾，請您多談談 BPP 平台、結晶時間、與 3 週年紀念日相關的資產。我認為這不包括BREIT。

Yes. So on the BREIT outlook, what I would say is, it goes back to these really remarkable fundamentals, the best we've seen in logistics and rental housing in our history. That should power strong performance even as multiples come down, as cap rates move up, something we've already done materially at this point. And there could be more of that over time, but we have such strong fundamental growth, combined with the dividend yield today, which is 4.5%, and that's what's produced the strong performance. That's what gives us confidence about the future.

是的。因此，關於 BREIT 的前景，我想說的是，它可以追溯到這些非常顯著的基本面，是我們歷史上在物流和出租房屋方面看到的最好的。即使倍數下降，隨著上限利率上升，這也應該會推動強勁的表現，我們目前已經在實質上做到了這一點。隨著時間的推移，這種情況可能會更多，但我們擁有如此強勁的基本面增長，再加上今天 4.5% 的股息收益率，這就是產生強勁表現的原因。這就是讓我們對未來充滿信心的原因。

Yes. And just to reinforce that, Brian, so just stepping on BREIT, basically high single-digit gross appreciation, total return, and that's comprised of that 4.5% mid-single-digit cash yield and then appreciation.

是的。為了加強這一點，布賴恩，所以只是踩著 BREIT，基本上是高個位數的總升值，總回報，這包括 4.5% 的中個位數現金收益率和升值。

I think in terms of the BPP incentive fees, both currently and then next year, they're spread across different vehicles and strategies. So whether it's BPP U.S., BPP Europe strategies, co-invest strategies, BPP Asia, you saw contributions from each of those this quarter. That will continue in the coming quarters. And then next year, you have more of that, and you also have the life sciences BPP vehicle that we created a couple of years ago that will have an anniversary in terms of its fee next year, which will be meaningful.

我認為就當前和明年的 BPP 激勵費用而言，它們分佈在不同的工具和策略中。因此，無論是 BPP 美國、BPP 歐洲策略、共同投資策略還是 BPP 亞洲，您都看到了本季度每個策略的貢獻。這將在未來幾個季度繼續。然後明年，你會擁有更多這樣的東西，而且你還擁有我們幾年前創建的生命科學 BPP 工具，明年的費用將是周年紀念日，這將是有意義的。

Our following question comes from Patrick Davitt from Autonomous Research.

我們的以下問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

There's press report out suggesting that you and some of the other big private credit managers are dialing back on deal financing risk and direct lending. Could you speak to that dynamic? And should -- and through that lens, should we expect a meaningful pullback in credit deployment? On the other hand, is there a potential offset from maybe pivoting to more rescue financing, the deal financing to offset that?

有新聞報導表明，您和其他一些大型私人信貸經理正在減少交易融資風險和直接貸款。你能談談那個動態嗎？並且應該 - 並且通過這個鏡頭，我們是否應該期待信貸部署出現有意義的回調？另一方面，是否有可能從轉向更多的救助融資、交易融資來抵消這一點的潛在抵消？

I think we lost...

我想我們輸了...

Okay. I think in terms of private credit, I would just point out that in the second quarter, we committed to 7 transactions with $1 billion or more. Biggest one was, I believe, the Zendesk public to private in the software space. So we had an extremely active quarter.

好的。我認為在私人信貸方面，我只想指出，在第二季度，我們承諾進行 7 筆 10 億美元或更多的交易。我相信，最大的一個是軟件領域的 Zendesk 公私合營。所以我們有一個非常活躍的季度。

That being said, obviously, there has been a change in the market. It allows you to be more selective on which types of credits. It allows you to diversify a little bit more. And so I think it speaks to there being significant opportunity.

話雖如此，顯然，市場發生了變化。它使您可以更有選擇地選擇哪種類型的信用。它使您可以更加多樣化。所以我認為這說明存在重大機會。

But obviously, we're going to pick our spots. But in general, I think as a lender in this kind of environment, it not only applies to our private credit business on kind of direct lending positions, but also in insurance, you can lend at lower loan to values and higher spreads. So it's a good time to be a lender.

但顯然，我們要選擇我們的位置。但總的來說，我認為作為這種環境下的貸方，它不僅適用於我們的私人信貸業務上的直接貸款頭寸，而且在保險方面，您可以以較低的貸款價值和較高的利差進行貸款。所以現在是做貸款人的好時機。

We fortunately -- between our BXC business, our BREDS business, our insurance business, we have a lot of scale in this area. So we're enthused about the opportunity to lend money, to provide credit to borrowers. But yes, you can be selective in who you choose, where you choose to deploy capital and also get both favorable economic and contract terms in this kind of environment.

幸運的是，在我們的 BXC 業務、BREDS 業務、保險業務之間，我們在這個領域擁有很大的規模。因此，我們熱衷於借錢，為藉款人提供信貸。但是，是的，您可以選擇性地選擇誰，選擇在哪裡部署資金，並在這種環境下獲得有利的經濟和合同條款。

Moving to our next question from Finian O'Shea from Wells Fargo Securities.

轉到富國證券的 Finian O'Shea 的下一個問題。

Can you talk about the market volatility's expected impact on private deal activity? What sort of a magnitude of a drop-off we might see? And in terms of how long it might last, is there starting to -- is the buyer/seller disconnect perhaps on valuations starting to thaw out?

您能否談談市場波動對私人交易活動的預期影響？我們可能會看到什麼樣的下降幅度？就它可能持續多長時間而言，是否開始 - 買家/賣家是否可能因估值開始解凍而脫節？

We have seen a decline, no surprise. Whenever you have moments of dislocation, as I keep saying, of equity markets, debt markets trading off, you have banks who, at these moments, sometimes have inventory that they will take them time to move. You see this slow down, and you see buyers and sellers sort of resetting their expectations. We saw it in 2020, when it was very short, lasted 6 weeks. In the most extreme example in '08, '09, it was 15 months or something. We're not, I don't think, in either of those conditions.

我們看到了下降，這不足為奇。正如我一直在說的那樣，每當股票市場、債務市場出現交易錯位時，就會有銀行在這些時候有時會有庫存，他們會花時間轉移。您會看到這種放緩，並且您會看到買家和賣家在某種程度上重新設定了他們的期望。我們在 2020 年看到了它，當時它很短，持續了 6 週。在 08 年、09 年最極端的例子中，是 15 個月左右。我們不是，我不認為，在這兩種情況下。

And we're still seeing deals getting done. We did a number of things in private equity. We bought a business, Advarra, which is in the life science space, doing compliance testing. We bought a business, Geosyntec, which is an environmental consulting firm. And so there still is activity. But the way it happens is things slow down, people find sort of a floor, and then business builds back up.

而且我們仍然看到交易完成。我們在私募股權領域做了很多事情。我們收購了生命科學領域的 Advarra 公司，從事合規性測試。我們收購了一家名為 Geosyntec 的環境諮詢公司。所以仍然有活動。但它發生的方式是事情放慢了速度，人們找到了底線，然後業務又重新建立起來。

I think in this environment, until there's a little more confidence around the trajectory on inflation, I think we'll see slower volumes. Once people get a sense that inflation is turning down more, they'll have a clearer path. And so I would expect the back half of the year will be slower because I think it will take a little time, and then things will pick back up.

我認為在這種環境下，除非對通脹軌蹟有更多信心，否則我們會看到交易量放緩。一旦人們感覺到通貨膨脹正在進一步下降，他們就會有一條更清晰的道路。所以我預計今年下半年會慢一些，因為我認為這需要一點時間，然後情況會好轉。

Going back to our model, the good news is we don't have to deploy the capital. We can be patient. We can wait for the right moment. The best opportunities today are clearly in the public markets on the screen, and that's where we're spending a lot of time. Then there'll be people who need capital or want to sell a division, and then sort of private-to-private transactions will probably pick up over that time. So we've seen these cycles over time. Deal volume will pick back up, but I would expect it probably to be slow in the back half of the year.

回到我們的模型，好消息是我們不必部署資金。我們可以耐心等待。我們可以等待合適的時機。今天最好的機會顯然是在屏幕上的公開市場，這就是我們花費大量時間的地方。然後會有人需要資金或想要出售一個部門，然後私人對私人交易可能會在那段時間回升。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們已經看到了這些週期。交易量將回升，但我預計下半年可能會放緩。

Moving on to our next question from Brian Mckenna from JMP Securities.

繼續我們來自 JMP 證券的 Brian Mckenna 的下一個問題。

It's great to see the strong fundraising to date for BREP X and then to hear the $30 billion target. And when I look at the last few vintages of this product, the fund sizes have stepped up quite meaningfully. So can you talk about how you think about expanding the size of these funds over time and then also how you think about capping these funds relative to the market opportunity?

很高興看到 BREP X 迄今為止的強勁籌款活動，然後聽到 300 億美元的目標。當我查看該產品的最後幾個年份時，基金規模已經顯著增加。那麼您能否談談您如何看待隨著時間的推移擴大這些基金的規模，以及您如何看待這些基金相對於市場機會的上限？

Yes. We've been very disciplined over time. I mean if you really look across the BREP franchise, as you mentioned, $30 billion is a step-up. But it's grown from, I guess, low double digits just before the crisis, the financial crisis. And we see the marketplace -- if you look at asset value growth in commercial real estate, I don't think we've grown faster than that on a relative basis. As you know, where we've seen big growth, of course, has been in our perpetual products, in Core+, both institutionally and retail, which is an even larger market.

是的。隨著時間的推移，我們一直非常自律。我的意思是，如果你真的看看 BREP 特許經營權，正如你所提到的，300 億美元是一個進步。但我猜它是從金融危機之前的低兩位數增長而來的。我們看到了市場——如果你看看商業房地產的資產價值增長，我認為我們的增長速度並沒有比這更快。如您所知，我們看到大幅增長的地方當然是我們的永久產品，Core+，無論是機構還是零售，這是一個更大的市場。

But what excites us, of course, and I think, exciting our investors is what's going to happen potentially. You see it in the public markets. There could be people who face financial challenges, and having a large-scale fund that doesn't require financing commitments allows us to do big things. And we recently committed to buy a last-mile logistics business, actually closed this week, PS Business Parks, that's in some of the best geographies in the U.S. with incredibly strong fundamentals. And because of our scale, we were able to step up.

但是，當然，讓我們興奮的是，我認為，讓我們的投資者興奮的是可能發生的事情。你可以在公共市場上看到它。可能有些人面臨財務挑戰，擁有不需要融資承諾的大型基金可以讓我們做大事。我們最近承諾購買最後一英里的物流業務，這週實際上關閉了，PS Business Parks，它位於美國一些最好的地區，基本面非常強勁。由於我們的規模，我們能夠加強。

So I guess what I would say is we're very thoughtful on the size of the capital. We've been asked this question now for 30-plus years. If you look at the BREP global track record, it's 17 net since inception. Investors have a lot of confidence in us. And it's a similar story across our firm. We scale the capital in these drawdown funds relative to the opportunity, and performance is what matters. We're continuing to deliver that, and investors continue to respond.

所以我想我想說的是，我們對首都的規模非常考慮。 30 多年來，我們一直被問到這個問題。如果你看一下 BREP 的全球業績記錄，它自成立以來是 17 淨。投資者對我們充滿信心。我們公司也有類似的情況。我們根據機會調整這些提款基金的資本，而業績才是最重要的。我們將繼續實現這一目標，投資者繼續做出回應。

Our next question comes from Adam Beatty from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty。

Question on expenses and margins, so probably for Michael. Just how we should think about the noncomp expense growth going forward? How far along do you think we are in terms of kind of post-pandemic uplift on that line and getting back to a more normal run rate? And then quickly, if I could, just on the FRE uplift from the fundraising, are you assuming like a higher incremental margin there or just run rate margins such that some margin expansion might be upside?

關於費用和利潤的問題，可能是邁克爾。我們應該如何看待未來的非補償費用增長？你認為我們在大流行後這條線上的提升和恢復到更正常的運行速度方面走了多遠？然後很快，如果我可以的話，就在籌款的 FRE 提升中，你是假設那裡有更高的增量利潤率，還是只是運行利潤率，這樣一些利潤率擴張可能是上行的？

Sure, Adam. I think on the second question, we're not -- that approximately 20% doesn't rely on margin expansion, although over the long term, we'd obviously continue to expect operating leverage and margin expansion and larger funds have that effect.

當然，亞當。我認為關於第二個問題，我們不是 - 大約 20% 不依賴於利潤率擴張，儘管從長遠來看，我們顯然會繼續預期運營槓桿和利潤率擴張，更大的基金會產生這種影響。

In terms of your first question on operating expense, yes, for sure, this was in T&E, and we sort of made this call a year ago. I think we said a year ago, it explained about 100 basis points or so of margin impact. And that's exactly what happened.

關於您關於運營費用的第一個問題，是的，可以肯定的是，這是在 T&E 中，我們在一年前打了這個電話。我想我們在一年前說過，它解釋了大約 100 個基點左右的利潤率影響。這正是發生的事情。

And even though we felt like we were pretty much back to work a year ago, if you look at the T&E spend across the firm as our teams really mobilized and investors gathered again and so forth, it was a significant uplift even relative to pre-COVID levels versus pretty minimal spend a year ago. So I would expect that to sort of cycle through over the next couple of quarters and then normalize in the year after that. And I think overall, if you look at the full year, the second half of the year, I think the rate of increase in OpEx will decline as we roll over some lumpier first half comparisons.

儘管我們一年前感覺我們幾乎恢復了工作，但如果你看看整個公司的 T&E 支出，因為我們的團隊真正動員起來，投資者再次聚集等等，即使相對於之前，這也是一個顯著的提升。 COVID 水平與一年前的最低支出相比。因此，我預計這會在接下來的幾個季度中循環，然後在之後的一年內正常化。而且我認為總體而言，如果您查看全年，下半年，我認為隨著我們對上半年的一些比較笨拙的比較進行滾動，OpEx 的增長率將下降。

Next up, we have Gerry O'Hara from Jefferies.

接下來，我們有來自 Jefferies 的 Gerry O'Hara。

Perhaps maybe we could just touch on the secondaries market briefly. Clearly, strong performance in the quarter, up over 5.5%. But if you might be able to just comment a little bit on some of the drivers and outlook for this business. And then I guess this is maybe a bit of a longer-term question, but do the dynamics and the sort of construct of the secondaries fund lend itself to any sort of retail opportunity in the future just given the liquidity or closer liquidity that it could potentially afford?

也許我們可以簡單地談談二級市場。顯然，本季度表現強勁，漲幅超過 5.5%。但是，如果您可以對這項業務的一些驅動因素和前景發表一點評論。然後我想這可能是一個長期的問題，但是考慮到流動性或更接近的流動性，二級基金的動態和結構是否適合未來任何類型的零售機會可能負擔得起？

All right. Good question. So on the performance front, there is a little bit of a lag there. So because you're reporting from underlying managers as opposed to reporting directly from Blackstone, you've got a quarter or so lag. So those were very good results, but obviously, we'll expect next quarter, they'll reflect what's happening in the private equity market today.

好的。好問題。所以在性能方面，那裡有一點滯後。因此，因為您是從底層經理那里報告而不是直接從 Blackstone 報告，所以您有四分之一左右的延遲。所以這些結果非常好，但顯然，我們預計下個季度，它們將反映當今私募股權市場的情況。

In terms of drivers in the business, they're really outstanding. If you think about how dramatically the alternative space has grown and yet how little capital is in the secondary space to provide liquidity, there is a serious mismatch there. And then when you add to that the number of firms who can buy across the several thousand different managers out there, that's even more limited. So we think about this as a special business that will continue to scale over time, that there's a structural inefficiency in the business because there's this need for liquidity.

在業務驅動方面，他們非常出色。如果您考慮替代空間的增長速度有多快，而二級空間提供流動性的資本又是多麼少，那麼那裡存在嚴重的不匹配。然後，如果再加上可以從數千名不同經理中購買的公司數量，那就更加有限了。因此，我們認為這是一項特殊的業務，將隨著時間的推移繼續擴大規模，該業務存在結構性低效率，因為需要流動性。

I would say on the deal flow front, again, what's going to happen now is investors will probably pause LPs in terms of selling, and there'll probably be a period where some markdowns will come through, then we'll see sales pick up again.

我想說的是，在交易流程方面，現在將發生的事情是投資者可能會暫停 LP 的銷售，並且可能會有一段時間會出現一些降價，然後我們會看到銷售回升再次。

And many investors, one of the flip side positives, and this is why the firm having sort of the diversity we have is so important. One of the positives here is the overallocation to private equity that makes fundraising more challenging for many firms. It means that those same institutions are now thinking more and more about selling in secondary. So we think having a $20 billion fund in that space is going to be very compelling. We have smaller funds in infrastructure and real estate, but that is really a long-term growth engine for our firm.

還有許多投資者，這是積極的一面，這就是為什麼擁有我們所擁有的多樣性的公司如此重要的原因。這裡的積極因素之一是過度分配給私募股權，這使得許多公司的融資更具挑戰性。這意味著這些機構現在越來越多地考慮在中學進行銷售。因此，我們認為在該領域擁有 200 億美元的基金將非常引人注目。我們在基礎設施和房地產方面的資金較少，但這確實是我們公司的長期增長引擎。

And on retail, I do think there's opportunity. I think the diversity of it, the liquidity, the shorter duration, that is a product, potentially part of something broader, that could be a meaningful addition. And again, it's another one of the factors that's the strength of our firm.

在零售方面，我確實認為有機會。我認為它的多樣性、流動性、更短的持續時間，這是一種產品，可能是更廣泛事物的一部分，這可能是一個有意義的補充。再說一次，這是我們公司實力的另一個因素。

And I guess I would just say there was -- we've talked generally about the environment, and everybody's focused on this month quarter, I just cannot emphasize enough the strength of our brand and what it allows us to do to create new retail products, to do things in insurance on a capital-light basis, our ability to still fundraise institutionally despite the challenging environment. You see it in that number, $88 billion. I think you'll continue to see it over time in our results.

我想我只想說——我們已經普遍談論了環境，每個人都在關注這個月的季度，我只是不能足夠強調我們品牌的實力以及它允許我們做些什麼來創造新的零售產品，要在輕資本的基礎上做保險業務，儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們仍有能力從制度上籌集資金。你看這個數字，880億美元。我認為隨著時間的推移，您會在我們的結果中繼續看到它。

Our next question is coming from Arnaud Giblat from BNPP Exane.

我們的下一個問題來自 BNPP Exane 的 Arnaud Giblat。

So my question is on BREIT. If I understand well, the biggest component of performance over the past 6 months, 12 months has been rental growth. I'm just wondering what the outlook there is. I've heard you that you're in good neighborhoods, et cetera. But I'm just wondering how much more scope you have to put our brands in the context of rising rates and inflation and a squeezed consumer.

所以我的問題是關於 BREIT。如果我理解得很好，過去 6 個月、12 個月的表現中最大的組成部分是租金增長。我只是想知道前景如何。我聽說你住在好街區等等。但我只是想知道，在利率和通脹上升以及消費者受到擠壓的背景下，我們的品牌還有多大的空間。

It's a good question. Obviously, at some point, the very high rates of rental growth will come down, but the backdrop is incredibly constructive. You start with -- in our 2 main asset classes here, residential and logistics, record low vacancies, which is different typically than when you're going into a down cycle.

這是個好問題。顯然，在某些時候，非常高的租金增長率會下降，但背景是令人難以置信的建設性。首先，在我們的兩個主要資產類別中，住宅和物流，空置率創歷史新低，這通常與您進入下行週期時不同。

In addition to that, what you're seeing is, particularly on the residential side, a pretty rapid slowing of new construction. New home starts were down 20% here in the last couple of months because, obviously, the for sale market, the cost of construction goes up and also financing costs. Mortgage costs have gone up really materially.

除此之外，你所看到的是，特別是在住宅方面，新建築的速度相當迅速地放緩。過去幾個月，這裡的新房開工率下降了 20%，顯然是因為待售市場、建築成本和融資成本上升。抵押貸款成本確實大幅上漲。

And so people still have to live somewhere. And so what's happening, of course, is you're seeing less new supply. We already have a very big structural shortage, and that's pushing more people into the rental market. So that provides a lot of support.

所以人們仍然必須住在某個地方。當然，正在發生的事情是你看到的新供應減少了。我們已經有一個非常大的結構性短缺，這正在推動更多的人進入租賃市場。所以這提供了很多支持。

I would also point out as history, if you went back to the 1978 to '82 period, the last period of really high inflation in the U.S., CPI averaged 9% back then. Rental housing, apartment rents grew at 9%, and new construction declined by 50%. So I think investors haven't fully appreciated the value of hard assets in this kind of climate.

我還要指出歷史，如果你回到 1978 年到 82 年的時期，那是美國最後一個真正高通脹的時期，當時的 CPI 平均為 9%。出租房屋、公寓租金增長 9%，新建建築下降 50%。所以我認為投資者在這種環境下還沒有充分認識到硬資產的價值。

And then on the logistics side, what I would say there is we're still seeing the shift to e-commerce. The importance of owning last-mile logistics keeps going up. And then this redundancy desire of companies who are concerned about supply chain and the need to hold more inventory closer to home, that's creating real demand there, too. And so we see strength there as well. So surprisingly, despite a lot of the headwinds, these are probably 2 of the best sectors in the entire economy around the world.

然後在物流方面，我想說的是，我們仍在看到向電子商務的轉變。擁有最後一英里物流的重要性不斷提高。然後，關注供應鏈的公司的這種冗餘願望以及需要在離家更近的地方持有更多庫存，這也在那裡創造了真正的需求。所以我們也看到了那裡的力量。令人驚訝的是，儘管有很多不利因素，但這些可能是全球整個經濟體中最好的兩個行業。

Our next question is coming from Rufus Hone from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Rufus Hone。

I wanted to ask about the potential you're seeing for insurance deals in the current environment. And how has your deal pipeline evolved? And I was wondering whether the rise in interest rates and higher volatility have had any impact on the appetite you're seeing for transactions.

我想問一下您在當前環境中看到的保險交易的潛力。您的交易渠道是如何演變的？我想知道利率上升和波動性上升是否對您對交易的興趣產生了影響。

We are seeing insurance companies, I think, increasingly recognizing that having the capability to originate private credit is very important. And particularly in this environment, when the banks get more full on inventory and slow their originations, that makes it more challenging for folks who buy just liquid, widely distributed products. And if you have the capability in this environment to make corporate loans, real estate loans, infrastructure loans, asset-backed loans, that is a real competitive advantage.

我認為，我們看到保險公司越來越認識到擁有發起私人信貸的能力非常重要。尤其是在這種環境下，當銀行的庫存變得更加充足並放慢了它們的發放速度時，這對那些只購買流動性強、分佈廣泛的產品的人來說更具挑戰性。如果你有能力在這種環境下提供公司貸款、房地產貸款、基礎設施貸款、資產支持貸款，那將是真正的競爭優勢。

I think insurers are also seeing the strong performance of our insurance clients. We have 3 meaningful insurance clients, but also other insurers tied to alternative asset managers. That private credit allows them to earn incremental yield without taking on incremental risk. So we're seeing an industry that is beginning to recognize that this is a powerful tool to generate better returns for policyholders.

我認為保險公司也看到了我們保險客戶的強勁表現。我們有 3 個有意義的保險客戶，還有其他與另類資產管理公司相關的保險公司。這種私人信貸使他們能夠在不承擔增量風險的情況下獲得增量收益。因此，我們看到一個行業開始認識到這是一個強大的工具，可以為投保人帶來更好的回報。

We are in discussions with multiple parties. As we've talked about over time, we don't know when these things hit or not. But what we do have is this very powerful origination engine and a model where we can serve multiple insurance clients, and that gives us the ability to grow in this area. So my expectation is over time, I don't know when, we'll come back and find other sizable clients and continue to grow this area. There's really a natural partnership between us and major insurance companies looking for incremental yield.

我們正在與多方進行討論。正如我們隨著時間的推移所討論的那樣，我們不知道這些事情何時發生。但我們所擁有的是這個非常強大的發起引擎和一個我們可以為多個保險客戶服務的模型，這使我們有能力在這個領域發展。所以我的期望是隨著時間的推移，我不知道什麼時候，我們會回來尋找其他大客戶並繼續發展這個領域。我們與尋求增加收益的主要保險公司之間確實存在天然的合作夥伴關係。

Next question comes from Patrick Davitt from Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

BAM had great performance, as you highlighted, but the flows remain pretty anemic. Are you starting to see a shift maybe and a pipeline of demand building there as it seems like we're entering a longer-term period where that strategy should be more attractive?

正如您所強調的那樣，BAM 的表現非常出色，但流量仍然相當貧乏。您是否開始看到一種轉變，以及在那裡建立的需求管道，因為我們似乎正在進入一個該戰略應該更具吸引力的長期時期？

I think it takes time. We've been through a period where equity markets and fixed income markets were so good that the idea that you would invest in a product where your downside was protected and you could produce solid returns sort of regardless of market movements, that wasn't really valued. And what I would say is after these 2 quarters, I think clients are going to begin to recognize this, but it does take a bit of time. We're also working on some new products in that area that we're not going to talk about today, but we think could help give some growth.

我認為這需要時間。我們經歷了一個股票市場和固定收益市場非常好的時期，以至於你會投資一種可以保護你的下行空間並且無論市場走勢如何都能產生穩定回報的產品的想法，這並不是真的重視。我想說的是，在這兩個季度之後，我認為客戶將開始認識到這一點，但這確實需要一些時間。我們還在該領域開發一些我們今天不打算討論的新產品，但我們認為這有助於實現一些增長。

But really, flows follow performance. That's how it works. And so in the BAM business, showing just how powerfully we can protect capital in an adverse environment, I think that will resonate. I think we will grow, but it doesn't necessarily happen overnight.

但實際上，流量跟隨性能。這就是它的工作原理。因此，在 BAM 業務中，展示了我們在不利環境中保護資本的能力，我認為這會引起共鳴。我認為我們會成長，但不一定會在一夜之間發生。

Our final question comes from Brian Bedell from Deutsche Bank.

我們的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Maybe just on the growth angle on the retail side. I think you mentioned you're continuing to focus on expanding those distribution partners. Can you talk about which areas in particular? I know you're already very well penetrated in the wirehouses. And I believe the private banks, maybe there's a lot more to go there. But maybe talk about that and also the very large RIA market in the U.S. And also outside of the U.S., I believe there's an effort in Asia, in particular, and whether this can all be done with existing products. Or does it rely outside the U.S. on creating new retail products?

也許只是在零售方面的增長角度。我認為您提到您將繼續專注於擴大這些分銷合作夥伴。您能具體談談哪些領域嗎？我知道你已經很好地滲透到了電線庫中。我相信私人銀行，也許還有很多東西可以去那裡。但也許可以談談這一點，以及美國非常大的 RIA 市場。以及在美國以外的地區，我相信亞洲特別是在努力，以及這是否都可以用現有產品來完成。還是它依賴於美國以外的地方創造新的零售產品？

So I think we're at a very early stage. When you look at -- even within the wirehouses, when you say the largest firms were well penetrated, we're still only with a minority -- a small minority of the overall financial advisers in these systems. In the RIA channel, our penetration is very low. In the smaller IBD channel, that's also low. In Europe and Asia, Europe, there are all sorts of regulatory and filing requirements, which we are steadily working our way through. Japan is a market that could have real scale.

所以我認為我們處於非常早期的階段。當您查看時-即使在接線公司內，當您說最大的公司已被很好地滲透時，我們仍然只有少數-這些系統中的整體財務顧問中的一小部分。在 RIA 渠道中，我們的滲透率非常低。在較小的 IBD 渠道中，這也很低。在歐洲和亞洲，歐洲有各種各樣的監管和備案要求，我們正在穩步努力通過這些要求。日本是一個可以擁有真正規模的市場。

I would say we are much closer to the beginning of this journey, not only with these initial products, but also with the future products. And the customers are just experiencing these for the first time. If you went back in time 30 years ago to the alternative space and you were talking to an institution about private equity, it seems sort of new and exotic. Steve could comment on this.

我想說我們離這個旅程的開始更近了，不僅是這些初始產品，還有未來的產品。客戶只是第一次體驗這些。如果你回到 30 年前的另類空間，你正在與一家機構談論私募股權，這似乎有點新奇和異國情調。史蒂夫可以對此發表評論。

But we're now in a very different place today. And today, institutions have 30% of their capital in private markets. I think individual investors, I don't know if it will go that far, but from the low single digits they're in, I think it can move meaningfully. Again, this is where our brand and performance makes a huge difference. And so we're investing a lot in building out our capabilities. And I think over time, we'll have more distribution partners and many more financial advisers and clients within these systems.

但我們現在處於一個非常不同的地方。而今天，機構將 30% 的資本投入私人市場。我認為個人投資者，我不知道它是否會走那麼遠，但從他們所處的低個位數來看，我認為它可以有意義地移動。同樣，這也是我們的品牌和性能產生巨大差異的地方。因此，我們在增強我們的能力方面投入了大量資金。而且我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將在這些系統中擁有更多的分銷合作夥伴以及更多的財務顧問和客戶。

Allow me to hand it back to Weston Tucker for closing remarks.

請允許我把它交還給 Weston Tucker 以作閉幕詞。

Great. Thanks, Ben. And Steve, I think you had some remarks you wanted to make?

偉大的。謝謝，本。史蒂夫，我想你有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes. I've been quiet today because it's always fun to watch Jon and Michael answer questions. But there was an unanswered piece, I think, of the JPMorgan question about -- which is very well phrased. What's the disconnect between what you, as management, think and sort of what we're seeing on the screen, which is not such a happy day here. And I'll just tell you a story to start out. I was in some place on Sunday, and somebody walked up to me, and he said, "I'm a BREIT investor. In fact, it's the biggest thing in my portfolio. And I love you, people. This is so amazing. All of my friends are losing a fortune in the market, and I've been making money."

是的。我今天一直很安靜，因為看著 Jon 和 Michael 回答問題總是很有趣。但我認為，關於摩根大通的問題，有一個未回答的問題——措辭非常好。作為管理層，你的想法和我們在屏幕上看到的東西之間有什麼脫節，這不是一個快樂的一天。我會告訴你一個故事開始。週日我在某個地方，有人走到我身邊，他說：“我是 BREIT 投資者。事實上，這是我投資組合中最重要的事情。我愛你們，人們。這太棒了。我所有的朋友都在市場上虧本，而我一直在賺錢。”

This is a simple story. I've been listening to the BREIT discussion, and Jon's laid out our wares pretty well, I think. But the reason we have optimism, where apparently that's not broadly shared, is that we're providing enormous value to people who are investors who remember it. And they appreciate the firm that builds our brand that helps us raise money. It helps us do our function, which is to underwrite risk and put really good products out, unlike other people where that isn't the case.

這是一個簡單的故事。我一直在聽 BREIT 的討論，我認為 Jon 很好地佈置了我們的產品。但我們之所以保持樂觀，顯然並沒有得到廣泛認同，因為我們正在為那些記得它的投資者提供巨大的價值。他們感謝建立我們品牌的公司，幫助我們籌集資金。它幫助我們完成我們的職能，即承擔風險並推出真正好的產品，不像其他人那樣做。

And we're doing it throughout our asset classes. It's really exciting to be able to outperform markets by thousands of percent. And if you don't think that's a reason for optimism, then I find that odd. And I think that's a base that we will be building upon. I was at one retail thing where we talked about, if everybody put 100% of their portfolio in BREIT, they'd be the best performing broker in that large system. And so we take a lot of pride in what we do, and we do it carefully. And we've had really good results.

我們正在整個資產類別中這樣做。能夠跑贏市場數千%，真是令人興奮。如果你不認為這是樂觀的理由，那麼我覺得這很奇怪。我認為這是我們將建立的基礎。我在我們談到的一件零售事情上，如果每個人都將其投資組合的 100% 投入 BREIT，他們將成為該大型系統中表現最好的經紀人。所以我們對我們所做的事情感到非常自豪，並且我們小心翼翼地做這件事。我們取得了非常好的結果。

In terms of other reasons for disconnect, we sit with distributors who say to us, "I want you to be hugely bigger in my system." And they say -- when they say that, they have the ability to do it. It's not a hope. These things are going to happen. And so I think we have a sense of the future that obviously isn't shared by the market today, but I've been through this a lot of times. And at the end of the day, we prevail.

至於其他斷開連接的原因，我們與經銷商坐在一起，他們對我們說：“我希望你在我的系統中變得更大。”他們說——當他們這麼說的時候，他們有能力這樣做。這不是希望。這些事情將會發生。所以我認為我們對未來的感覺顯然不是今天的市場所共有的，但我已經經歷了很多次。最終，我們佔了上風。

And I don't think there's a reason to be particularly concerned about the long term because in the long term, we also have an amazing group of people at the firm, truly astonishing group of people, and that's how you build a business. And so when I ended my remarks and said I thought we really do well over time, I didn't just do that as a throwaway line.

而且我認為沒有理由特別關注長期，因為從長遠來看，我們公司還有一群了不起的人，真正令人驚訝的一群人，這就是你建立業務的方式。因此，當我結束我的發言並說我認為隨著時間的推移我們真的做得很好時，我並沒有把這當作一次性的台詞。

And I think we have a terrific positioning. I think it's unique in the financial world, and we're going to build on it, and it's going to work out fine for everybody. So I just wanted to end on that because I realize there's a lot of individual questions. But when you step back and look at what's happening here, $88 billion in the quarter. I mean there are giant mutual fund complexes that are hemorrhaging. We're not hemorrhaging.

我認為我們的定位非常好。我認為它在金融界是獨一無二的，我們將在此基礎上再接再厲，對每個人都適用。所以我只想就此結束，因為我意識到有很多個人問題。但是當你退後一步看看這裡發生了什麼，本季度的 880 億美元。我的意思是有巨大的共同基金綜合體正在大出血。我們沒有出血。

I mean there's a reason to have some balance here. We're going up in terms of our AUM, not like other famous companies that seem to go down. So I think if you unbundle what you're thinking and step back and look at what's going to happen in our business over time, I think there is an enormous reason for optimism as to what we will be building at Blackstone and providing for all of our customers.

我的意思是這裡有一些平衡的理由。就我們的 AUM 而言，我們正在上升，而不像其他似乎下降的著名公司那樣。所以我認為，如果你解開你的想法並退後一步，看看隨著時間的推移我們的業務會發生什麼，我認為有一個巨大的理由對我們將在 Blackstone 建立什麼並為所有我們的顧客。

I apologize for that little speech. But I honestly believe it. And I wish you would.

我為那個小小的演講道歉。但老實說，我相信它。我希望你會。

Thank you, Steve. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning, and look forward to following up after the call.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。謝謝大家今天早上加入我們，並期待在電話會議後跟進。

Thank you for joining, everyone. This concludes your conference. You may now disconnect. Please enjoy the rest of your day. Goodbye.

謝謝大家的加入。您的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。請盡情享受您的一天。再見。