Blackstone Inc (BX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome, everyone, to the Blackstone Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Investor Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎大家參加 Blackstone 第四季度和 2022 年全年投資者電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I'd like to advise all parties that this conference is being recorded. And with that, let me hand it over to Weston Tucker, Head of Shareholder Relations. Weston, please go ahead.

我想通知各方，這次會議正在錄製中。就此，讓我把它交給股東關係主管韋斯頓塔克。韋斯頓，請繼續。

Perfect. Thanks, Matt, and good morning, and welcome to Blackstone's Fourth Quarter Conference Call. Joining today are Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO; and Jon Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer.

完美的。謝謝，馬特，早上好，歡迎來到 Blackstone 的第四季度電話會議。今天加入的有董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·蘇世民 (Steve Schwarzman)；總裁兼首席運營官 Jon Gray；和 Michael Chae，首席財務官。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. We expect to file our 10-K report next month. I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and outside of the firm's control and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. For a discussion of some of the risks that could affect results, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K.

今天上午早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和幻燈片演示，可在我們的網站上獲取。我們預計下個月提交 10-K 報告。我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是不確定的並且不在公司的控制範圍內，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何義務。有關可能影響結果的一些風險的討論，請參閱我們的 10-K 的風險因素部分。

We'll also refer to certain non-GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the shareholders page of our website. Also, please note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any interest in any Blackstone fund. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent.

我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 措施，您會在我們網站股東頁面上的新聞稿中找到對賬。此外，請注意，本次電話會議的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買任何 Blackstone 基金權益的要約邀請。此音頻廣播是 Blackstone 受版權保護的材料，未經同意不得複制。

On results, we reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $743 million. Distributable earnings were $1.3 billion or $1.07 per common share, and we declared a dividend of $0.91 per share, which will be paid to holders of record as of February 6.

在結果方面，我們報告本季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 7.43 億美元。可分配收益為 13 億美元或每股普通股 1.07 美元，我們宣布派發每股 0.91 美元的股息，並將支付給截至 2 月 6 日在冊的股東。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Steve.

有了這個，我現在將電話轉給史蒂夫。

Well, thank you, Weston, and good morning, and thanks, everybody, for joining the call. 2022 represented the most challenging market environment since the global financial crisis. Central banks around the world embarked on one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in history to combat the highest inflation in a generation.

好吧，謝謝韋斯頓，早上好，感謝大家加入電話會議。 2022 年是全球金融危機以來最具挑戰性的市場環境。世界各地的中央銀行開始了歷史上最激進的緊縮週期之一，以應對一代人以來的最高通脹。

In the United States, we saw the highest level of inflation since 1981. Federal fund rate here rose from basically 0 at the start of the year to 4.5%, the largest increase in 50 years. Equity markets fell sharply as a result, with the S&P down 18% for the year, NASDAQ down 33%, public REIT index, not to be forgotten, down 25%.

在美國，我們看到了自1981年以來的最高通脹水平。這裡的聯邦基金利率從年初的基本為零上升到4.5%，是50年來的最大漲幅。股市因此大幅下跌，標準普爾指數全年下跌 18%，納斯達克指數下跌 33%，公共 REIT 指數也不容忽視，下跌 25%。

The intra-year movements were even more extreme, with these indices down 26% to 37% at their lowest. In credit, the high-yield and high-grade indices declined 11% and 13%, respectively. Overall, the 60-40 portfolio had one of the worst years on record. And against this extremely unfavorable market backdrop, Blackstone delivered earnings and dividend growth for our shareholders. Distributable earnings, for example, rose 7% to $6.6 billion in 2022, while fee-related earnings increased 9% and to $4.4 billion, a record year for the firm on both metrics despite the collapse in equity and debt markets.

年內走勢更為極端，這些指數最低時下跌 26% 至 37%。在信貸方面，高收益和高等級指數分別下跌 11% 和 13%。總體而言，60-40 的投資組合是有記錄以來最糟糕的年份之一。在這種極其不利的市場背景下，Blackstone 為我們的股東帶來了收益和股息增長。例如，可分配收益在 2022 年增長了 7%，達到 66 億美元，而與費用相關的收益增長了 9%，達到 44 億美元，儘管股票和債務市場崩潰，但公司在這兩個指標上都創下了歷史新高。

The fourth quarter, although we had fewer realizations due to the environment, we generated strong DE of $1.3 billion reflective of the firm's substantial earnings power, which has grown dramatically over the past several years. Most importantly, Blackstone distinguished itself compared to almost all diversified liquid securities managers by preserving our limited partners' capital.

第四季度，儘管由於環境原因我們實現的收益較少，但我們產生了 13 億美元的強勁 DE，這反映了公司強大的盈利能力，這種能力在過去幾年中急劇增長。最重要的是，與幾乎所有多元化的流動性證券管理公司相比，黑石通過保留我們有限合夥人的資本而脫穎而出。

The year in which the typical investor lost somewhere between 15% and 25% of their money, our limited partner investors had a highly differentiated outcome. Our flagship strategies in real estate, private credit and secondaries appreciated 7% to 10%, while those losses were recurring elsewhere. Our Hedge Fund Solutions business achieved a gross composite return of 5% with positive returns every quarter of the year. Our corporate private equity, tactical opportunities and liquid credit strategies were down only modestly for the year between 1% and 3%.

在普通投資者損失 15% 到 25% 的資金的那一年，我們的有限合夥人投資者的結果差異很大。我們在房地產、私人信貸和二級市場的旗艦策略上漲了 7% 至 10%，而這些損失在其他地方經常發生。我們的對沖基金解決方案業務實現了 5% 的綜合總回報率，並且每年每個季度都獲得正回報。我們的企業私募股權、戰術機會和流動信貸策略今年僅小幅下降 1% 至 3%。

One of Blackstone's core principles since our founding in 1985, involves the preservation of capital as a necessary component of the investments we make. We assess investment opportunities rigorously always with a focus on not losing our clients' money.

自 1985 年成立以來，Blackstone 的核心原則之一就是將資本保全作為我們投資的必要組成部分。我們嚴格評估投資機會，始終以不損失客戶的錢為重點。

In addition, of course, we seek returns that significantly exceed public market benchmarks over time. This year, we are proud that we again executed on this foundational principle. Our approach to investing has enabled us to grow from having no assets in 1985, to becoming the largest alternative asset manager in the world today.

此外，當然，我們尋求隨著時間的推移顯著超過公開市場基準的回報。今年，我們很自豪能夠再次執行這一基本原則。我們的投資方法使我們從 1985 年沒有資產發展成為當今世界上最大的另類資產管理公司。

As you would expect, our investors are rewarding us, including remarkable inflows of $226 billion just in 2022, which drove 11% growth in assets under management to a record $975 billion. Our inflows this year alone qualify as a top 10 alternative manager out of the over 10,000 alternative managers globally. But Blackstone and others started in the alternatives business, institutional investors provided almost all of the capital for investment. That business remains robust today as institutions are continuing to increase allocations.

正如您所料，我們的投資者正在回報我們，包括僅在 2022 年就有 2260 億美元的可觀資金流入，這推動管理資產增長 11%，達到創紀錄的 9750 億美元。在全球 10,000 多名另類投資經理中，僅今年我們的資金流入就有資格成為前 10 名另類投資經理。但黑石等起家的是另類投資業務，機構投資者提供了幾乎所有的投資資金。隨著機構繼續增加配置，該業務今天依然強勁。

With a vast $85 trillion private wealth channel, a new generation of investors is starting to experience the benefits of alternatives as well, a development led by Blackstone, where we have the largest market share. 20 years ago, we started raising money in this channel by offering access to the same high-quality products we offer to institutions. Over a decade ago, we built a dedicated private wealth team, which today comprises approximately 300 people globally, where we invested significantly to establish the leading sales and service organization in our sector, interfacing with the largest wealth distribution systems.

憑藉 85 萬億美元的巨大私人財富渠道，新一代投資者也開始體驗另類投資的好處，這是由我們擁有最大市場份額的 Blackstone 引領的發展。 20 年前，我們通過向機構提供同樣優質的產品，開始通過該渠道籌集資金。十多年前，我們建立了一支專門的私人財富團隊，如今該團隊在全球擁有約 300 名員工，我們在該團隊進行了大量投資，以建立我們行業領先的銷售和服務組織，與最大的財富分配系統對接。

6 years ago, we launched our first large-scale customized products for individual investors. These products were designed to provide attractive returns by investing in longer-term assets, and therefore, capture the premium for liquidity which is the basis of much of our business. And we structured these products to provide liquidity over time, subject to limits as it is essential to match the time horizon of investments with the duration of capital. This is a foundational principle of portfolio construction. And these products have worked exactly as intended.

6年前，我們推出了第一款針對個人投資者的大規模定制產品。這些產品旨在通過投資於長期資產來提供有吸引力的回報，因此可以獲得流動性溢價，而流動性是我們大部分業務的基礎。我們構建這些產品以隨著時間的推移提供流動性，但受到限制，因為必須將投資的時間範圍與資本的持續時間相匹配。這是投資組合構建的基本原則。這些產品的效果完全符合預期。

Blackstone's largest product in the private wealth channel, BREIT, has delivered 12.5% net returns annually since inception 6 years ago for its largest share class, earning over 3x the public REIT index. There's been a lot of talk about public REITs. We've outearned them by 3x. In 2022, BREIT's net return was over 8% while equity and debt markets were melting. And its growth in net operating income, 2022 was 65% higher than public REITs through the latest available public data at some performance.

Blackstone 在私人財富渠道中最大的產品 BREIT，自 6 年前成立以來，其最大股票類別的年淨回報率為 12.5%，收益超過公開 REIT 指數的 3 倍。關於公共房地產投資信託基金的討論很多。我們的收入是他們的 3 倍。 2022 年，BREIT 的淨回報率超過 8%，而股票和債務市場正在融化。根據最新的公開數據，其 2022 年淨營業收入的增長比公共 REITs 高出 65%。

Blackstone's second largest product in this area of BCRED, has achieved 8% net returns annually, significantly outperforming the relevant credit indices and is yielding over 10% today, exclusively in floating rate debts.

Blackstone 在 BCRED 這一領域的第二大產品每年實現 8% 的淨回報，顯著優於相關信用指數，目前收益率超過 10%，僅在浮動利率債務中。

The response to our performance has been extremely positive. In 2022, our sales in the private wealth channel totaled a remarkable $48 billion, not exactly what you're hearing in the media. In the fourth quarter, despite market headwinds. Our sales were a robust $8 billion, including $4 billion in our perpetual vehicles and $4 billion in other strategies.

對我們表現的反應非常積極。 2022 年，我們在私人財富渠道的銷售額總計達到驚人的 480 億美元，這與您在媒體上聽到的完全不同。在第四季度，儘管市場逆風。我們的銷售額達到 80 億美元，其中包括 40 億美元的永久性車輛和 40 億美元的其他戰略。

On a net basis, after repurchases, we saw positive net inflows in this channel of $3 billion overall in the fourth quarter, with strong demand for our drawdown products. Specifically, our perpetual strategies saw moderate net outflows in the quarter of approximately $800 million. As one would expect, flows in these strategies are impacted by market cycles. We believe we're seeing a temporary decline in an otherwise very positive long-term growth trajectory.

按淨額計算，在回購後，我們看到第四季度該渠道整體淨流入 30 億美元，對我們的提款產品的需求強勁。具體而言，我們的永續策略在本季度出現了約 8 億美元的適度淨流出。正如人們所預料的那樣，這些策略中的流量受到市場週期的影響。我們認為，我們正看到原本非常積極的長期增長軌跡出現暫時下滑。

Firstly speaking, I've been in finance for over 50 years, and I'm frankly quite surprised by the intense external focus on the flows for BREIT at a time of cyclical lows in stock and bond markets. For those of us that build and create businesses, what's going on is highly predictable. It should be expected that flows from high net worth individuals would decline for nearly all types of new investments in this environment.

首先，我從事金融業 50 多年，坦率地說，在股票和債券市場週期性低點之際，外部對 BREIT 資金流的強烈關注讓我感到非常驚訝。對於我們這些建立和創建企業的人來說，正在發生的事情是高度可預測的。應該預計，在這種環境下，幾乎所有類型的新投資，來自高淨值個人的流量都會下降。

Having navigated 5 major market declines in my career, I've learned that focusing just on what's happening at the bottom of cycles, this leads the public regarding likely future trends for appreciation and growth in well-constructed and historically high-performing products. My experience is these market bottoms often last for relatively short periods of time and are followed by a resumption of historic trends.

在我的職業生涯中經歷了 5 次主要的市場下跌後，我了解到，只關注週期底部發生的事情，這會引導公眾關注未來可能的趨勢，即結構良好且歷史上表現良好的產品的升值和增長。我的經驗是，這些市場底部通常會持續相對較短的時間，隨後會恢復歷史趨勢。

At Blackstone, we are focused on the long term, not next month. And rather than simply counting balls and strikes, we're working to win the World Series. And as we all know, not all World Series are won 4 games to 0. All people remember is who won the World Series, and that is our intention, and that has been our experience with the vast bulk of our products.

在 Blackstone，我們著眼於長期，而不是下個月。而不是簡單地計算球數和擊球數，我們正在努力贏得世界大賽。眾所周知，並非所有世界系列賽都以 4 比 0 獲勝。所有人都記得誰贏得了世界系列賽，這就是我們的意圖，這也是我們對大部分產品的體驗。

Our funds are built on performance and our consistent experience over nearly 4 decades has been that with strong returns, flows will follow. The need for very high-quality products in the private wealth channel is very substantial, and we're bringing something highly differentiated in terms of our portfolio and performance. What we've created for individual investors is so good that one of the most sophisticated institutions in the world contacted us and indicated they wanted to invest as well.

我們的基金建立在業績基礎上，我們近 4 年來的一貫經驗是，隨著強勁的回報，資金將隨之而來。私人財富渠道對高質量產品的需求非常大，我們正在為我們的產品組合和業績帶來高度差異化的產品。我們為個人投資者創造的產品非常好，以至於世界上最成熟的機構之一與我們聯繫並表示他們也想投資。

Earlier this month, the University of California system invested $4 billion in BREIT and is investing an additional $500 million beyond that, which we announced yesterday with an effective 6-year hold. This investment builds upon a 15-year relationship between our firms. I had the pleasure of meeting with UC's Chief Investment Officer over the holiday period, and he said they consider BREIT to have one of the best positioned real estate portfolios in the United States.

本月早些時候，加州大學系統向 BREIT 投資了 40 億美元，並在此基礎上再投資 5 億美元，這是我們昨天宣布的，持有期為 6 年。這項投資建立在我們公司之間 15 年的合作關係之上。我有幸在假期期間與 UC 的首席投資官會面，他說他們認為 BREIT 擁有美國最佳定位的房地產投資組合之一。

This investment provides BREIT with substantial additional firepower and flexibility and represents a powerful affirmation of the portfolio and its performance. It also illustrates the significant advantages of buying products from Blackstone. Investors in our funds get access to the full capabilities of our firm, not just those of an individual portfolio manager, including our intellectual capital, relationships, creativity and the many other benefits that come from our leading market position. We use these advantages to drive the best outcomes possible for our customers.

這項投資為 BREIT 提供了大量額外的火力和靈活性，代表了對投資組合及其績效的有力肯定。它還說明了從 Blackstone 購買產品的顯著優勢。我們基金的投資者可以獲得我們公司的全部能力，而不僅僅是單個投資組合經理的能力，包括我們的智力資本、關係、創造力以及來自我們領先市場地位的許多其他好處。我們利用這些優勢為我們的客戶帶來最好的結果。

Our distribution partners understand this as well, and they've told us they plan to continue to expand their clients' access to alternatives. Blackstone's commitment to the private wealth channel is stronger than ever. And we believe our performance in this cycle will ultimately provide impetus for significant growth in this area. Our returns in the face of adverse markets and adverse media are proof of concept that our disciplined approach to institutional asset management applies for the benefit of individuals as well.

我們的分銷合作夥伴也明白這一點，他們告訴我們他們計劃繼續擴大他們的客戶獲得替代品的機會。 Blackstone 對私人財富渠道的承諾比以往任何時候都更加堅定。我們相信我們在這個週期中的表現最終將為該領域的顯著增長提供動力。我們在不利市場和不利媒體面前的回報證明了我們對機構資產管理的嚴格方法也適用於個人利益的概念。

In closing, as we move into 2023, Blackstone is uniquely positioned to navigate the challenges of today's world on behalf of all of our investors. As a whole, our portfolio is in excellent shape, with an emphasis on downside protection as well as upside when asset values ultimately recover from this cycle.

最後，隨著我們進入 2023 年，Blackstone 處於獨特的地位，可以代表我們所有的投資者應對當今世界的挑戰。總體而言，我們的投資組合狀況良好，重點是在資產價值最終從這一周期中復蘇時提供下行保護和上行保護。

With almost $187 billion of dry powder, we have more capital than almost any other financial investor in the world to buy assets opportunistically when values are low and liquidity is scarce. We have lived through many cycles and have always emerged stronger, growing the firm to greater heights.

憑藉近 1870 億美元的干火藥，我們擁有比世界上幾乎任何其他金融投資者都多的資本，可以在價值低和流動性稀缺時機會主義地購買資產。我們經歷了許多周期，並且總是變得更強大，將公司發展到更高的高度。

Public market and investors who don't understand our model historically run the risk of missing out on Blackstone's substantial long-term stock performance. Our people own 36% of Blackstone's equity. I can tell you, this is a group that is extremely bullish on our firm's prospects.

歷史上，不了解我們模型的公開市場和投資者冒著錯失 Blackstone 可觀的長期股票表現的風險。我們的人擁有 Blackstone 36% 的股權。我可以告訴你，這個群體非常看好我們公司的前景。

And with that, I'll turn things over to Jon.

有了這個，我會把事情交給喬恩。

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. The true measure of our success is the returns we generate for clients. Despite a very tough year for markets, we've continued to deliver for them. Nearly all our flagship strategies outperformed the relevant public indices in 2022, as Steve highlighted, the result of how we've positioned investor capital along with our value creation focus. We do not own the market. It matters where you invest.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家，早安。衡量我們成功的真正標準是我們為客戶創造的回報。儘管市場經歷了非常艱難的一年，但我們繼續為他們提供服務。正如史蒂夫強調的那樣，我們幾乎所有的旗艦策略在 2022 年都跑贏了相關的公共指數，這是我們如何定位投資者資本以及我們的價值創造重點的結果。我們不擁有市場。你在哪裡投資很重要。

There is no better example of this than in real estate, where we've achieved 16% net returns annually in our global opportunistic funds across the many economic and interest rate cycles of the past 30 years. More recently, given our concerns around rising interest rates and inflation, we concentrated over 80% of our current real estate portfolio in sectors where strong cash flow growth could help offset these headwinds, including logistics, rental housing, life science office, hotels and data centers.

沒有比房地產更好的例子了，在過去 30 年的許多經濟和利率週期中，我們的全球機會主義基金每年實現 16% 的淨回報率。最近，鑑於我們對利率上升和通貨膨脹的擔憂，我們將目前 80% 以上的房地產投資組合集中在現金流強勁增長可能有助於抵消這些不利因素的行業，包括物流、出租房屋、生命科學辦公室、酒店和數據中心。

Logistics is the largest exposure across Blackstone, comprising approximately 40% of the entire real estate portfolio. Fundamentals globally remain extraordinarily strong. In recent months, re-leasing spreads, the increase in rents as expiring leases roll over were 65% in our U.S. holdings, accelerating to a record 75% in December; approximately 50% in the U.K.; and 30% in Europe overall; 20% in Australia; and 100% in Canada. At the same time, construction starts for warehouses along with most types of real estate are now falling sharply, which is further tightening and already constrained new supply pipeline.

物流是 Blackstone 最大的業務，約佔整個房地產投資組合的 40%。全球基本面仍然非常強勁。最近幾個月，轉租利差，即到期租約展期導致的租金上漲，在我們持有的美國資產中佔 65%，並在 12 月份加速至創紀錄的 75%；大約 50% 在英國；整個歐洲佔 30%； 20% 在澳大利亞； 100% 在加拿大。與此同時，倉庫的開工建設以及大多數類型的房地產現在都在急劇下降，這進一步收緊並已經限制了新的供應渠道。

Of course, these exceptional fundamentals do not apply everywhere. In traditional U.S. office, for example, secular challenges have been exacerbated in a post-pandemic world. We've written down the equity value of traditional U.S. office assets dramatically since 2018. And fortunately, such assets represent only 2% of our global real estate portfolio versus approximately 50%, 15 years ago.

當然，這些特殊的基本原理並不適用於所有地方。例如，在傳統的美國辦公室，長期挑戰在後大流行世界中加劇。自 2018 年以來，我們大幅減記了美國傳統辦公資產的股權價值。幸運的是，這些資產僅占我們全球房地產投資組合的 2%，而 15 年前這一比例約為 50%。

In private equity, our concentration in the travel and leisure, energy and energy transition areas have had a meaningful impact on our results. We largely avoided unprofitable tech and did nothing in crypto. Our thematic approach has led to 14% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 for our corporate private equity operating companies.

在私募股權方面，我們專注於旅遊休閒、能源和能源轉型領域，這對我們的業績產生了重大影響。我們在很大程度上避免了無利可圖的技術，並且在加密領域什麼也沒做。我們的主題方法使我們的企業私募股權運營公司在第四季度的收入同比增長了 14%。

Margins in our portfolio have proven to be resilient, reflective of our focus on high-quality businesses with pricing power. And in our noninsurance corporate credit business, with nearly $200 billion of total AUM, over 90% of our investments are floating rate, which has benefited returns as rates moved higher.

事實證明，我們投資組合的利潤率具有彈性，反映了我們對具有定價權的高質量業務的關注。在我們的非保險企業信貸業務中，總資產管理規模接近 2000 億美元，我們超過 90% 的投資是浮動利率，隨著利率上升，這有利於回報。

Finally, in BAAM, we emphasize macro and quant strategies, yielding outstanding results for our investors in liquid securities. The strength of our returns over decades reinforces the Blackstone brand and allows us to serve investors in more areas.

最後，在 BAAM，我們強調宏觀和量化策略，為我們的流動證券投資者帶來出色的結果。我們幾十年來的回報實力鞏固了 Blackstone 品牌，並使我們能夠在更多領域為投資者提供服務。

While the fundraising environment remains challenging, we are in a differentiated position with LPs globally. We're seeing the greatest demand today for private credit strategies, including from insurance clients and for infrastructure. In credit, the current environment is favorable for deployment given the significant increases in base rates and wider spreads.

雖然籌款環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們在全球範圍內與有限合夥人處於不同的地位。我們看到當今對私人信貸策略的需求最大，包括來自保險客戶和基礎設施的需求。在信貸方面，鑑於基本利率顯著上升和利差擴大，當前環境有利於部署。

Moreover, our investors benefit from our direct origination capabilities, which is a key differentiator for insurance clients in particular. That's leading to robust growth in this area, with $8 billion of inflows in Q4 from our large insurance mandates, bringing platform AUM to $160 billion. And we have line of sight to over $250 billion over time from existing clients alone. This includes our resolution platform, where we recently announced an incremental $1 billion commitment from Nippon Life, Japan's leading life insurance company to help accelerate the company's growth.

此外，我們的投資者受益於我們的直接發起能力，這對於保險客戶來說尤其重要。這導致該領域的強勁增長，第四季度我們的大型保險授權流入 80 億美元，使平台 AUM 達到 1600 億美元。隨著時間的推移，我們僅從現有客戶那裡就可以獲得超過 2500 億美元的收入。這包括我們的解決方案平台，我們最近宣布日本領先人壽保險公司 Nippon Life 增加 10 億美元的承諾，以幫助加速公司的發展。

In infrastructure, we raised $3 billion in the fourth quarter and $10 billion in 2022, bringing AUM to $35 billion in just 5 years. Performance has been outstanding, with 19% net returns annually since inception. Again, it's about where we chose to invest, including inflation-protected areas like digital, transportation and energy infrastructure.

在基礎設施方面，我們在第四季度籌集了 30 億美元，在 2022 年籌集了 100 億美元，使 AUM 在短短 5 年內達到 350 億美元。業績一直很出色，自成立以來每年的淨回報率為 19%。同樣，這與我們選擇投資的領域有關，包括數字、交通和能源基礎設施等通脹保護區。

Turning to our drawdown fund business. We've raised approximately $100 billion to date for the current vintage of flagships, advancing toward our $150 billion target. In corporate private equity, we've closed on over $15 billion for the new flagship and believe we will raise roughly a similar amount as the prior fund in a difficult private equity fundraising environment.

轉向我們的提款基金業務。迄今為止，我們已經為當前的旗艦店籌集了大約 1000 億美元，朝著我們 1500 億美元的目標前進。在企業私募股權方面，我們已經為新旗艦籌集了超過 150 億美元的資金，並且相信在困難的私募股權籌資環境中，我們將籌集到與之前基金大致相似的數額。

In secondaries, we completed the fundraise for SP's flagship PE strategy at over $22 billion, the industry's largest, as well as SP's GP-led continuation fund at $2.7 billion. We also raised additional capital in Q4 for our renewables and energy transition focused strategies in credit and private equity, targeting over $10 billion in aggregate.

在二級市場，我們為 SP 的旗艦 PE 戰略完成了超過 220 億美元的籌資，是業內規模最大的，同時 SP 的 GP 牽頭的延續基金也完成了 27 億美元的籌資。我們還在第四季度為我們在信貸和私募股權方面以可再生能源和能源轉型為重點的戰略籌集了額外資金，目標總額超過 100 億美元。

In real estate, we commenced fundraising for our latest debt vehicle, which we believe will be comparably sized to its $8 billion predecessor. And later this quarter, we expect to start raising our seventh European opportunistic strategy, targeting a similar size to the prior fund, which was EUR 9.5 billion of third-party capital. As with fundraising, our global scale and our reputation as a partner of choice are key advantages in deploying capital, particularly when the rural becomes challenging.

在房地產方面，我們開始為我們最新的債務工具籌集資金，我們相信其規模將與其前身 80 億美元相當。本季度晚些時候，我們預計將開始提高我們的第七個歐洲機會主義戰略，目標是與之前的基金規模相似，即 95 億歐元的第三方資本。與籌款一樣，我們的全球規模和我們作為首選合作夥伴的聲譽是部署資本的關鍵優勢，尤其是當農村變得充滿挑戰時。

Our largest commitment in Q4 was for a majority stake in Emerson Electric's Climate Technologies segment. This $14 billion corporate carve-out was the result of a year-long dialogue completed at a time when traditional financing sources were largely unavailable. Emerson remains our partner in the investment. The ability to source, structure and finance such a complex transaction at scale in a difficult investment environment highlights the very best of Blackstone.

我們在第四季度最大的承諾是獲得艾默生電氣氣候技術部門的多數股權。這項價值 140 億美元的企業分拆是在傳統融資來源基本不可用時完成的長達一年的對話的結果。艾默生仍然是我們的投資夥伴。在困難的投資環境中大規模地尋找、構建和融資如此復雜交易的能力凸顯了 Blackstone 的優勢。

Other investments in Q4 included CoreTrust in partnership with HCA, another bilateral discussion with a high-quality corporate and the privatization of Atlantia, one of the largest transportation infrastructure companies alongside the Benetton family.

第四季度的其他投資包括與 HCA 合作的 CoreTrust，另一項與優質企業的雙邊討論，以及 Atlantia 的私有化，Atlantia 是貝納通家族中最大的交通基礎設施公司之一。

We're starting to see some interesting opportunities arise from the market dislocation, including from real estate funds seeking liquidity, leading to investments in logistics portfolios in Canada, the U.K. and Sweden, but it will take time for a volume of large-scale opportunities to emerge. Our latest fundraising cycle has positioned us very well with $187 billion of dry powder.

我們開始看到市場錯位帶來了一些有趣的機會，包括尋求流動性的房地產基金，導致對加拿大、英國和瑞典的物流投資組合進行投資，但大量的大規模機會需要時間出現。我們最新的籌款週期為我們提供了 1870 億美元的干火藥。

In closing, we continue to see global LPs increase their allocation to alternatives, and Blackstone is the leader in the space. For shareholders, our firm represents exceptional value. We've grown distributable earnings 20% annually for the past 10 years, more than double the rate of the market. We've done that while paying out nearly 100% of our earnings through dividends and buybacks.

最後，我們繼續看到全球 LPs 增加了對替代品的配置，而黑石是該領域的領導者。對於股東來說，我們公司代表著非凡的價值。在過去的 10 年裡，我們的可分配收益每年增長 20%，是市場增長率的兩倍多。我們做到了這一點，同時通過股息和回購支付了近 100% 的收益。

Moreover, the share count has barely grown over that decade, and we continue to operate with minimal net debt and no insurance liabilities. It is an extraordinary business model, and our brand and relationships with customers have never been stronger.

此外，在那十年間，股票數量幾乎沒有增長，我們繼續以最少的淨債務和沒有保險責任的方式運營。這是一種非凡的商業模式，我們的品牌和與客戶的關係從未如此牢固。

With that, I will turn things over to Michael.

有了這個，我會把事情交給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. The firm's results reflect strong performance in difficult markets. Our business continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and fundamental strength in terms of investment returns, inflows and earnings power. I'll first review financial results and then we'll discuss investment performance and key elements of the forward outlook.

謝謝，喬恩，大家早上好。該公司的業績反映了在困難市場中的強勁表現。我們的業務在投資回報、資金流入和盈利能力方面繼續展現出非凡的彈性和基本實力。我將首先回顧財務結果，然後我們將討論投資業績和前瞻性展望的關鍵要素。

Starting with results. Despite the challenging backdrop, fee-related earnings, net realizations and distributable earnings also a meaningful positive growth for the full year, with FRE and DE reaching record levels, as Steve highlighted. FRE increased 9% to $4.4 billion or $3.65 per share, powered by very strong growth in management fees and healthy margin expansion, notwithstanding a decline in fee-related performance revenues.

從結果開始。儘管背景充滿挑戰，但正如史蒂夫強調的那樣，與費用相關的收入、淨實現和可分配收入在全年也實現了有意義的正增長，FRE 和 DE 達到了創紀錄的水平。 FRE 增長 9% 至 44 億美元或每股 3.65 美元，這得益於管理費的強勁增長和健康的利潤率擴張，儘管與費用相關的業績收入有所下降。

Our expansive breadth of growth engines and the activation of new drawdown funds throughout the year lifted base management fees 25% to a record $6 billion for the year and the 52nd straight quarter of year-over-year base management fee growth at Blackstone. At the same time, FRE margin expanded 75 basis points to 57.1%, the highest level ever for a calendar year, reflective of the firm's robust margin position and ability to manage costs with discipline in a difficult environment.

我們廣泛的增長引擎和全年啟動的新提款基金使基本管理費提高了 25%，達到創紀錄的 60 億美元，這也是 Blackstone 基本管理費連續第 52 個季度同比增長。與此同時，FRE 利潤率擴大了 75 個基點，達到 57.1%，為歷年以來的最高水平，反映了該公司穩健的利潤率狀況以及在困難環境中以紀律管理成本的能力。

Fee-related performance revenues were $1.4 billion for the year, driven by strong returns across our perpetual strategies, with contribution from 12 discrete vehicles. Looking forward, the setup for this high-quality revenue stream in 2023 and beyond is quite favorable, which I'll discuss further in a moment.

全年與費用相關的績效收入為 14 億美元，這得益於我們永久性戰略的強勁回報，其中 12 種離散車輛做出了貢獻。展望未來，2023 年及以後這種高質量收入流的設置非常有利，稍後我將進一步討論。

Distributable earnings increased 7% in 2022 to $6.6 billion or $5.17 per common share, driven by the growth in FRE, along with a 4% increase in net realizations. The shape of the year was impacted by our realization activity, which, of course, is market dependent. We saw a record first half driven by certain large realizations of note, while the pace of sales slowed in the second half, reflecting overall market activity levels. FRE remained a balance to earnings throughout the year, 2022 comprising 4 of the firm's 5 best quarters for FRE in history.

在 FRE 增長的推動下，2022 年可分配收益增長 7% 至 66 億美元或每股普通股 5.17 美元，淨實現增長 4%。今年的形狀受到我們變現活動的影響，當然，這取決於市場。我們看到上半年由於某些票據的大量變現而創下歷史新高，而下半年的銷售速度放緩，反映了整體市場活動水平。 FRE 全年保持收益平衡，2022 年包括公司歷史上 FRE 最好的 5 個季度中的 4 個。

In the fourth quarter, FRE was $1.1 billion or $0.88 per share. The year-over-year comparison was affected by the change in the crystallization schedule for BREIT's fee-related performance revenues in 2022. Previously, each full year's revenues crystallized in the fourth quarter, which moved to a quarterly crystallization in the first quarter of 2022. Notably, excluding these revenues, the firm's FRE growth in the fourth quarter was positive 7%, more in line with the full year.

第四季度，FRE 為 11 億美元或每股 0.88 美元。同比比較受到BREIT 2022年費用相關業績收入結晶時間表變化的影響。此前，每個全年收入在第四季度結晶，2022年第一季度轉為季度結晶值得注意的是，排除這些收入，該公司第四季度的 FRE 增長為正 7%，與全年持平。

Distributable earnings in the fourth quarter of 2022 were $1.3 billion or $1.07 per common share, down from the prior year record quarter. Stepping back, despite a muted backdrop for realizations for much of the year, our distributable earnings were above or well above $1 per share every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters, which had only previously occurred 3x in our history. This reflects well the elevation of our earnings power that is underway.

2022 年第四季度的可分配收益為 13 億美元或每股普通股 1.07 美元，低於去年創紀錄的季度。退一步說，儘管今年大部分時間的實現背景都比較平靜，但在過去連續 6 個季度中，我們的可分配收益每個季度都高於或遠高於每股 1 美元，這在我們的歷史上只發生過 3 倍。這很好地反映了我們正在進行的盈利能力的提升。

Turning to investment performance. Against the volatile market backdrop of 2022, our funds protected investor capital. In the fourth quarter, the corporate private equity funds appreciated 3.8%, with strength in our travel-related and energy holdings along with our publics broadly. Our portfolio companies are well positioned overall with continued strong revenue growth and resilient margins.

轉向投資業績。在 2022 年動蕩的市場背景下，我們的基金保護了投資者的資本。第四季度，企業私募股權基金上漲 3.8%，我們的旅遊相關和能源股以及我們廣泛的公眾持股表現強勁。我們的投資組合公司整體定位良好，收入持續強勁增長，利潤率富有彈性。

In real estate, the Core+ and opportunistic funds depreciated 1.5% to 2% in the quarter. In the context of rising cost to capital, we've continued to increase cap rate assumptions across the portfolio, driving the fourth quarter decline. Notwithstanding this impact, our real estate strategy still saw significant appreciation for the full year due to robust cash flow growth across our holdings. Of note, 10-year yields have moved meaningfully lower since year-end, which, if sustained, should provide additional valuation support over time.

在房地產方面，Core+ 和機會主義基金在本季度貶值了 1.5% 至 2%。在資本成本上升的背景下，我們繼續提高整個投資組合的資本化率假設，導致第四季度下滑。儘管存在這種影響，但由於我們持有的現金流量強勁增長，我們的房地產戰略在全年仍實現了顯著升值。值得注意的是，10 年期國債收益率自年底以來大幅走低，如果持續下去，隨著時間的推移應該會提供額外的估值支持。

In credit, the private credit strategy is appreciated 2.4% and the liquid strategies appreciated 3%, reflective of a resilient portfolio generating strong current income against a stable backdrop for credit generally in the quarter. And in BAAM, the BPS gross composite return was 2.1% in the quarter, the 11th quarter in a row of positive performance. Overall, our portfolios are performing well in a challenging external operating environment.

在信貸方面，私人信貸策略升值 2.4%，流動性策略升值 3%，反映出在本季度信貸總體穩定的背景下，彈性投資組合產生強勁的當前收入。在 BAAM，本季度 BPS 總綜合回報率為 2.1%，這是連續第 11 個季度表現良好。總體而言，我們的投資組合在充滿挑戰的外部運營環境中表現良好。

Turning to the outlook. First, as it relates to realizations, we expect sales activity to remain muted in the near term given market conditions. And as always, when markets ultimately stabilize, we would expect realizations to reaccelerate as well. With respect to FRE, we continue to expect a material step-up over the next several years, led by the combination of: first, our drawdown fundraising cycle; second, expanding contribution from perpetual strategies; and third, the substantial, largely contractual growth of our dedicated insurance platform.

轉向前景。首先，由於它與變現有關，我們預計在給定的市場條件下，短期內銷售活動將保持低迷。與往常一樣，當市場最終穩定下來時，我們預計實現也會重新加速。關於 FRE，我們繼續預計在未來幾年內會有實質性的提升，其中包括：首先，我們的縮編籌款週期；二是擴大永續策略的貢獻；第三，我們專用保險平台的實質性增長，主要是合同增長。

In terms of the drawdown funds, the fee holiday for our global real estate flagship has ended, and 2023 will include a nearly full year contribution of management fees. We expect to launch the investment period for the corporate PE flagship later this year, subject to deployment which will be followed by an effective 4-month fee holiday. We will launch various other funds in the coming quarters depending on deployment. In total, only $56 billion of our $150 billion target was earning management fees as of year-end.

在提取資金方面，我們全球房地產旗艦的收費假期已經結束，2023 年將包括近全年的管理費貢獻。我們預計將在今年晚些時候推出公司 PE 旗艦產品的投資期，視部署情況而定，隨後將有一個有效的 4 個月費用假期。我們將在未來幾個季度根據部署推出各種其他基金。截至年底，我們 1500 億美元的目標中只有 560 億美元賺取了管理費。

Capital strategies continue to grow in number and scale with over 50 discrete vehicles today. A combined fee AUM of our 4 flagship strategies, BPP, BREIT, BIP and BCRED, grew 30% in 2022 to $184 billion. This sets a substantially higher baseline for fee revenues entering the year. In addition to NAV-based management fees, over 30 of the perpetual vehicles are eligible to generate fee-related performance revenues, and the firm will continue to benefit from the layering effect of these revenues. We previously noted that the BPP platform has 4x more AUM subject to crystallization in 2023 and 2022 concentrated in the second half of the year.

資本戰略在數量和規模上繼續增長，如今有超過 50 種離散工具。我們的 4 個旗艦策略 BPP、BREIT、BIP 和 BCRED 的合併費用 AUM 在 2022 年增長了 30% 至 1840 億美元。這為進入今年的費用收入設定了一個更高的基準。除了基於資產淨值的管理費外，超過 30 種永久車輛有資格產生與費用相關的績效收入，公司將繼續受益於這些收入的分層效應。我們之前註意到，BPP 平台在 2023 年和 2022 年集中在下半年結晶的 AUM 增加了 4 倍。

Finally, in insurance, we ended 2022 with over $100 billion of AUM from our 4 large clients, generating $450 million of management fee revenue for the year. As these mandates grow over time, both organically and by contract, we anticipate fee revenues just from these mandates will more than double to approximately $1 billion in 4 to 5 years, including strong double-digit growth this year. These revenues carry attractive incremental margins given our extensive existing capabilities. So to summarize, with multiple embedded key drivers, we have strong confidence in continued FRE expansion in 2023 and beyond.

最後，在保險方面，到 2022 年底，我們的 4 個大客戶的 AUM 超過 1000 億美元，全年產生了 4.5 億美元的管理費收入。隨著這些任務隨著時間的推移而增長，無論是有機地還是通過合同，我們預計僅來自這些任務的費用收入將在 4 到 5 年內增加一倍以上，達到約 10 億美元，包括今年兩位數的強勁增長。鑑於我們廣泛的現有能力，這些收入帶來了誘人的增量利潤。因此總而言之，有了多個嵌入式關鍵驅動因素，我們對 FRE 在 2023 年及以後的持續擴張充滿信心。

In closing, despite the uncertainties in today's world, we entered the new year from a position of fundamental strength. Our earnings power has elevated dramatically for the past several years. And looking forward, we have great confidence in the future.

最後，儘管當今世界存在不確定性，但我們以基本面實力進入了新的一年。在過去的幾年裡，我們的盈利能力大幅提升。展望未來，我們對未來充滿信心。

With that, we thank you for joining the call, and would like to open it up now for questions.

有了這個，我們感謝您加入電話會議，並希望現在打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is coming from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

Steve, Jon. Hope everyone is doing well.

史蒂夫，喬恩。希望每個人都做得很好。

Good morning.

早上好。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So Infrastructure Partners is generating sizable inflows pretty much every quarter now. AUM is around $35 billion. What's been driving the improvement in fundraising momentum at Infra? Is it partly the inflation had qualities? Is it more contribution from the private wealth channel? And also, is PIF still matching every dollar of inflow? And I think that was up to $40 billion.

因此，Infrastructure Partners 現在幾乎每個季度都會產生大量資金流入。 AUM 約為 350 億美元。是什麼推動了 Infra 籌款勢頭的改善？部分原因是通貨膨脹有品質嗎？是不是私人財富渠道的貢獻更大？而且，PIF 是否仍在匹配每一美元的流入？我認為這高達 400 億美元。

So Craig, I would say the key reason it's grown, echoing what Steve was saying in his remarks, is performance drives inflows. So this vehicle, if you look in our filing has delivered 19% net since inception 5 years ago, really remarkable for a fund that had a much lower targeted return. And so that's obviously attractive.

所以克雷格，我想說它成長的關鍵原因，呼應史蒂夫在他的言論中所說的，是績效驅動流入。因此，如果您查看我們的文件，自 5 年前成立以來，該工具的淨回報率為 19%，對於目標回報率低得多的基金而言，這確實非常了不起。所以這顯然很有吸引力。

I do think you hit on a key element, which is the inflation-protected nature of hard assets, particularly in this portfolio. What it owns in transportation infrastructure, an area we went very long post pandemic, investing in Atlantia in Europe; Autostrade in Europe; Signature Aviation here in the United States, that has been very positive for this fund. Our push in digital infrastructure, data centers and towers, where there's really strong underlying demand. And then energy and energy transition, of course, given what's going on.

我確實認為你抓住了一個關鍵因素，即硬資產的通脹保護性質，尤其是在這個投資組合中。它在交通基礎設施方面擁有的資產，這是我們在大流行後長期關注的領域，投資於歐洲的亞特蘭蒂亞；歐洲的 Autostrade；美國的 Signature Aviation 對該基金非常有利。我們推動數字基礎設施、數據中心和塔，這些領域的潛在需求非常強勁。然後是能源和能源轉型，當然，考慮到正在發生的事情。

And so it really has a really exceptional portfolio that investors find attractive. In an inflationary environment, it's delivered very good performance. And in general, I would say our customers are under allocated to infrastructure and want to hold more here.

因此，它確實擁有一個非常出色的投資組合，投資者覺得很有吸引力。在通貨膨脹的環境中，它提供了非常好的性能。總的來說，我會說我們的客戶分配給基礎設施的比例不足，並希望在這裡持有更多。

And so I think it's one of the things that everybody has been so caught up on, one product, the flows. Meanwhile, here's a product that didn't exist 5 years ago, has $35 billion of AUM, grew 53%, is delivering phenomenal performance, and I think will grow to be much, much larger than it is today.

所以我認為這是每個人都非常關注的事情之一，一種產品，一種流量。與此同時，這是一款 5 年前不存在的產品，擁有 350 億美元的 AUM，增長了 53%，正在提供驚人的性能，我認為它會增長到比今天大得多。

Specifically, you talked about private wealth. It's not really a product so far that we've tapped into the private wealth channel on -- and then as it relates to our partners at PIF, yes, they are still matching us up to a certain size under our agreement. We also win the number -- have some co-investments. So there's still some additional capital. But I would just say the response from investors broadly here has been extraordinary. And what we've built from scratch, what Sean Klimczak, who runs that business has done is truly exceptional, and we're really proud of this business and have a lot of optimism about the future.

具體來說，你談到了私人財富。到目前為止，這並不是我們已經進入私人財富渠道的真正產品——然後當它與我們在 PIF 的合作夥伴相關時，是的，他們仍在根據我們的協議將我們匹配到一定規模。我們也贏得了這個數字——有一些共同投資。所以還有一些額外的資本。但我只想說，這裡廣泛的投資者反應非同尋常。我們從頭開始構建的東西，經營該業務的 Sean Klimczak 所做的確實非常出色，我們為這項業務感到非常自豪，並對未來充滿樂觀。

And our next question is coming from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

So I think Steve put it well earlier when talking about it's essential to match the duration of assets with the capital. And there's a perception or reality in some ways that the quarterly liquidity products don't do that. Now they work, and you're protecting shareholders, so I understand at the bottom line.

所以我認為史蒂夫在談到將資產的持續時間與資本相匹配的重要性時說得很好。在某些方面，人們認為季度流動性產品不會這樣做。現在它們起作用了，你在保護股東，所以我明白底線。

So my question is, we've been talking about for a while now and experiencing retail, the private wealth channel contributing 30% to 50% of flows for the company. So I'm curious how you evaluate the client experience, the client being the SA, the platform, the end client that's asking for money and has to wait. And so the bigger picture question is, do you still have confidence in that 30% to 50%? Do you need some re-innovation of product wrapper? I know I asked something like that last quarter, but we have 3 months more of conversations. So I'd love to get your mark-to-market on all of that.

所以我的問題是，我們已經討論了一段時間並體驗零售，私人財富渠道為公司貢獻了 30% 到 50% 的流量。所以我很好奇你如何評估客戶體驗，客戶是 SA，平台，最終客戶要錢並且必須等待。所以更大的問題是，你對那 30% 到 50% 仍然有信心嗎？您需要對產品包裝進行一些再創新嗎？我知道上個季度我問過類似的問題，但我們還有 3 個月的對話時間。所以我很樂意讓你在所有這些上按市值計價。

Thanks, Glenn. I think what's fascinating is when we talk to our clients, their experience versus the media narrative. So what we've heard from our clients is they're quite pleased, they're quite pleased that they invested in a product that has produced 3x the rate of return as the public REIT market. So they look at what's happened here as positive.

謝謝，格倫。我認為有趣的是當我們與客戶交談時，他們的經歷與媒體敘述的對比。因此，我們從客戶那裡聽到的是，他們非常高興，他們非常高興他們投資了一個回報率是公共 REIT 市場 3 倍的產品。所以他們認為這裡發生的事情是積極的。

Our clients and financial advisers understand that this was a semi-liquid product, that the basic trade-off was to trade some liquidity here for higher returns. And that there were always, from day 1, 6 plus years ago, limitations on liquidity. Now there may be a small subset who've expressed some unhappiness. But frankly, the vast, vast majority of our customers are quite happy.

我們的客戶和財務顧問了解這是一種半流動性產品，基本的權衡是在這裡交易一些流動性以獲得更高的回報。而且，從 6 年前的第一天開始，流動性就一直存在限制。現在可能有一小部分人表達了一些不滿。但坦率地說，我們絕大多數的客戶都非常滿意。

And so we think about this like a great restaurant that serves food. The weather outside is bad, the markets are tough, back to Steve's comments. There are not quite as many people showing up right now, but the food is still really good. And we think as the world reverts, as we work through the backlog of redemptions, we're going to continue -- we will see flows return. And by the way, we saw in 2020, a cessation of flows. You can look at products like this over time. People are just taking a snapshot of today, and they're focused on the flows.

因此，我們將其視為一家供應美食的一流餐廳。外面的天氣不好，市場很艱難，回到史蒂夫的評論。現在來的人不是很多，但是食物還是很不錯的。我們認為，隨著世界的逆轉，當我們處理積壓的贖回時，我們將繼續——我們將看到資金流回歸。順便說一下，我們在 2020 年看到了流量停止。隨著時間的推移，你可以看看這樣的產品。人們只是在拍今天的快照，他們關注的是流量。

What I find fascinating was yesterday, we posted our 8-K saying that same-store estimated NOI for BREIT was 13% for the full year, which is extraordinary for a portfolio of this size. No one covers that. What they're focused on is what the flows are next week. To us, what matters is delivering for the customer. So I do believe, fundamentally, as we get through this challenging period, people will come back to these products.

令我著迷的是昨天，我們發布了 8-K 報告，稱 BREIT 全年的同店估計 NOI 為 13%，這對於這種規模的投資組合來說是非同尋常的。沒有人涵蓋這一點。他們關注的是下週的流量。對我們來說，重要的是為客戶提供服務。所以我確實相信，從根本上說，當我們度過這個充滿挑戰的時期時，人們會重新使用這些產品。

I think as you talk about liquidity, could there be tweaks to these different products over time on the liquidity features, BCRED, for instance, does quarterly versus monthly. We're not changing anything today, but certainly, people are going to look at these.

我認為當你談論流動性時，隨著時間的推移，這些不同產品的流動性特徵是否會有所調整，例如，BCRED 每季度而不是每月。我們今天沒有改變任何東西，但可以肯定的是，人們會看到這些。

But at the end of the day, the product has delivered as designed. It's delivered strong performance, it's delivered on the liquidity promises it had. The media has created a different narrative, but the customers are fundamentally happy. That's why I believe as the world normalizes, we will again begin to see flows.

但最終，產品已按設計交付。它表現強勁，兌現了其流動性承諾。媒體創造了不同的敘述，但客戶基本上很高興。這就是為什麼我相信隨著世界正常化，我們將再次開始看到流動。

The next question is coming from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys。

Just more of a bigger picture question around growth and innovation. I guess if we look at your growth in recent years, many of the products that are contributing today did not exist 5 or 10 years ago.

只是更多關於增長和創新的大局問題。我想如果我們看看你們近年來的增長，就會發現今天做出貢獻的許多產品在 5 或 10 年前並不存在。

So if we look out over the next 5 to 10 years, can you talk about some of the white space that you see for innovation, for new business opportunities, opportunities for new strategies and just the overall opportunity set for Blackstone to innovate from here? And ultimately, how different might the Blackstone of 2030 look versus today?

因此，如果我們展望未來 5 到 10 年，您能否談談您看到的一些創新空白、新商業機會、新戰略機會以及 Blackstone 從這裡開始創新的整體機會？最終，2030 年的 Blackstone 與今天相比會有何不同？

So I think there is still enormous opportunity in the alternative space. When you look at it aggregately, it's roughly $10 trillion industry, we're about 10% of the industry. That compares to stocks and bonds over $200 trillion. If you throw in commercial real estate, residential real estate, other things, you can get up to $300 trillion. So I think there's a lot of room to grow, Mike.

所以我認為替代空間仍然存在巨大的機會。從總體上看，這是一個大約 10 萬億美元的行業，我們約佔該行業的 10%。相比之下，股票和債券的市值超過 200 萬億美元。如果加上商業地產、住宅地產等，最多可以獲得300萬億美元。所以我認為有很大的成長空間，邁克。

And I think where the most growth will happen as you've seen, if you think about sort of investments as a pyramid, at the very top are the highest returning strategies. There, we've obviously done a great job in private equity, real estate, private equity growth, life sciences. But what we're seeing is a lot of growth in strategies where the return profiles are not as high, longer-duration strategies.

我認為，如您所見，增長最快的地方將發生，如果您將某種投資視為金字塔，那麼在最頂端的是回報率最高的策略。在那裡，我們顯然在私募股權、房地產、私募股權增長、生命科學方面做得很好。但我們看到的是，回報率不那麼高、持續時間更長的策略有很多增長。

We think about private credit is a huge area of opportunity because investors, be it insurance companies or individual investors or institutions realizing now that they can lend directly to borrowers with help from somebody like Blackstone. That is a very, very big market, and we today are still a very small percentage of that.

我們認為私人信貸是一個巨大的機會領域，因為投資者，無論是保險公司還是個人投資者或機構，現在都意識到他們可以在 Blackstone 這樣的公司的幫助下直接貸款給借款人。那是一個非常非常大的市場，而我們今天仍然只佔其中很小的一部分。

Specifically, we've talked a lot about insurance, but an industry where people are really now focused on performance and the incremental return that comes from originating private credit, we have this unique platform today that enables us to serve now 4 major clients. I don't see any reason why that platform cannot continue to grow. And as we have more scale, we can generate even more favorable returns.

具體來說，我們已經談了很多關於保險的問題，但在這個行業，人們現在真正關注的是績效和源自私人信貸的增量回報，我們今天擁有這個獨特的平台，使我們能夠為 4 個主要客戶提供服務。我看不出該平台無法繼續發展的任何理由。隨著我們規模的擴大，我們可以產生更有利的回報。

Infrastructure, which we just touched on, I think there's a global opportunity. We started initially in the U.S. That can certainly be a bigger global opportunity. I would say Asia, which I'm going to in a couple of weeks, in real estate, in private equity across the board, I think that's an area where there's a lot of growth. And just credit and yield products generally are attractive for us. And the secondaries market, which you've seen, which benefits from the rise of the alternative space can grow.

我們剛剛談到的基礎設施，我認為這是一個全球性的機會。我們最初是在美國起步的。這無疑是一個更大的全球機遇。我會說亞洲，我將在幾週後前往，在房地產領域，在整個私募股權領域，我認為這是一個有很大增長的領域。通常只有信貸和收益產品對我們有吸引力。你所看到的二級市場受益於替代空間的興起，可以增長。

So when we look out across our business, we still see lots of engines of growth. Even Core+ plus real estate, we're still a tiny fraction of that market. And so what we have, which is a great sort of special sauce of the firm, these wonderful people, but these relationships we've built up.

因此，當我們縱觀我們的業務時，我們仍然看到許多增長引擎。即使是 Core+ 加上房地產，我們仍然只佔該市場的一小部分。所以我們擁有的是公司的一種特殊調味料，這些很棒的人，但我們已經建立了這些關係。

So if you look at what's happened with Cal Regents, $4.5 billion committed in a short period of time, the transaction we did with Nippon Life that I referenced. We have a number of big investors who are looking at $1 billion plus commitments to various vehicles and funds. We've just got a lot of goodwill. And the key for us is to find the right talent to pursue some of these strategies and then scale it up.

因此，如果你看看 Cal Regents 發生了什麼，在短時間內承諾了 45 億美元，我提到的我們與 Nippon Life 進行的交易。我們有許多大投資者正在尋找 10 億美元以及對各種工具和基金的承諾。我們剛剛得到了很多善意。對我們來說，關鍵是找到合適的人才來實施其中一些戰略，然後擴大規模。

So again, our optimism remains high. And what's interesting versus the last really sharp down cycle in '08, '09 is clients are actually talking about increasing their allocation to alternatives, something that's very different than the sentiment back then because investors continue to see the differentiated performance.

因此，我們的樂觀情緒仍然很高。與 08 年、09 年最後一個真正急劇下跌的周期相比，有趣的是，客戶實際上正在談論增加對替代品的配置，這與當時的情緒截然不同，因為投資者繼續看到差異化的表現。

The next one is coming from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

下一個來自摩根大通的肯沃辛頓。

Wanted to dig into BPP and the outlook for growth in this product. So maybe first, have you gotten a reaction to the arrangement you made with UC and BREIT from customers of BPP?

想深入了解 BPP 和該產品的增長前景。所以也許首先，您是否從 BPP 的客戶那裡得到了您與 UC 和 BREIT 所做的安排的反應？

Maybe second, even outside of Mileway and BioMed, growth has been very strong for BPP. How's the outlook for growth over the next few years changed as it seems like growth has stalled more recently there?

也許其次，即使在 Mileway 和 BioMed 之外，BPP 的增長也非常強勁。隨著最近那裡的增長似乎停滯不前，未來幾年的增長前景如何變化？

And then lastly, do you see other Mileway and BioMed opportunities for adjacency growth in BPP? And what might the nature of those adjacencies look like?

最後，您是否看到其他 Mileway 和 BioMed 有機會在 BPP 中實現鄰接增長？這些鄰接的性質可能是什麼樣的？

Thank you, Ken. A few things. We haven't really heard much from our clients in the institutional world around BPP vis-a-vis BREIT and the Cal Regents investment. I think there's a different dynamic given the different liquidity profile in BPP where investors recognize you need new inflows in order to get redemptions done.

謝謝你，肯。一些東西。在 BPP 相對於 BREIT 和 Cal Regents 投資方面，我們並沒有真正從機構界的客戶那裡聽到太多消息。考慮到 BPP 中不同的流動性狀況，我認為存在不同的動態，投資者認識到您需要新的資金流入才能完成贖回。

In terms of the outlook, what tends to happen in these open-ended vehicles during periods of market dislocation is you do see a deceleration of flows. People want to sort of wait and watch, capital allocation is more constrained. And you will see in this area, a slowdown.

就前景而言，在市場混亂時期，這些開放式工具往往會發生的情況是，你確實會看到流量減速。人們希望稍作觀望，資金配置較為受限。你會在這個領域看到放緩。

By the way, it's happened in the past in the early 2000s, in open-ended institutional real estate funds. It's happened in the '08, '09 period. And then as you come out of this, clients want to get invested, and the fact that these funds can deploy the capital quickly into existing portfolios is attractive. But I would guess, in the near term here, this area won't grow as quickly as other parts of the firm, like infrastructure we were talking about.

順便說一下，在過去的 2000 年代初期，開放式機構房地產基金就發生過這種情況。它發生在 08 年、09 年期間。然後當你走出困境時，客戶希望得到投資，而這些基金可以快速將資金部署到現有投資組合中這一事實很有吸引力。但我猜想，在短期內，這個領域不會像公司其他部門那樣快速增長，比如我們正在談論的基礎設施。

In terms of large-scale recapitalizations, creating more perpetual vehicles, I think that's an opportunity over time. We do it on a very selective basis. We're focused on maximizing returns for our customers. We have a number of these Mileway, BioMed, Logicor, which is another large logistics platform. We have some smaller vehicles.

在大規模資本重組方面，創造更多的永續工具，我認為這是一個隨著時間的推移的機會。我們在非常有選擇性的基礎上這樣做。我們專注於為我們的客戶最大化回報。我們有很多這樣的 Mileway、BioMed、Logicor，這是另一個大型物流平台。我們有一些較小的車輛。

Interestingly, BPP at $73 billion is made up of more than 30 different entities. So there's a lot of diversity in the customer base and the asset class here. And it's an area that we think can grow quite significantly over time. But in the near term, I think the growth will be a little more muted.

有趣的是，價值 730 億美元的 BPP 由 30 多個不同的實體組成。因此，這裡的客戶群和資產類別存在很大差異。我們認為這是一個隨著時間的推移可以顯著增長的領域。但在短期內，我認為增長會更加緩慢。

Our next question is coming from Finian O'Shea with WFS.

我們的下一個問題來自 WFS 的 Finian O'Shea。

On private credit, I appreciate the color you had earlier on the U.S. direct lending potential via your insurance relationships. Of course, the BDC can continue to grow as well, that complex. But beyond these, can you talk about the broader institutional efforts? And if you have an eye on expansion into, say, a fund complex or an evergreen for that asset class?

在私人信貸方面，我很欣賞你早些時候通過你的保險關係對美國直接貸款潛力的看法。當然，BDC 也可以繼續增長，那麼複雜。但除此之外，您能否談談更廣泛的機構努力？如果您著眼於擴展到某個資產類別的基金綜合體或常青樹？

We think there's a lot of opportunity in both the U.S. and Europe on direct lending with institutional clients. You rightfully pointed out, obviously, BCRED has been quite successful in that space, serving the individual investors. Some of this is in the insurance clients.

我們認為美國和歐洲在向機構客戶直接貸款方面都有很多機會。您正確地指出，顯然，BCRED 在為個人投資者服務的領域非常成功。其中一些是在保險客戶中。

But institutional clients see the same thing. If you look at a transaction we did in private equity, with Emerson, their Climate Technologies business, we borrowed there about 1/3 loan to value and the spreads were 60-plus over. And if you think about where base rates are and upfront fees, that is a very attractive return.

但機構客戶也看到了同樣的事情。如果你看一下我們在私募股權中與 Emerson 進行的交易，他們的氣候技術業務，我們在那裡借了大約 1/3 貸款的價值，利差超過 60。如果您考慮基本費率和預付費用，那將是一個非常有吸引力的回報。

And so institutional clients, large pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are seeing this. We have a number of SMAs. It is an area that we would like to and plan to grow over time. And I think that will be another feature. I think that's why this sort of direct lending capability, which has multiple ways to access capital can grow to be much larger than it is today.

因此，機構客戶、大型養老基金和主權財富基金都看到了這一點。我們有許多 SMA。這是一個我們希望併計劃隨著時間的推移而發展的領域。我認為這將是另一個特點。我認為這就是為什麼這種具有多種獲取資本方式的直接貸款能力可以發展到比現在大得多的原因。

And the next one is coming from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

下一個來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Great. Just back on BREIT and BCRED. Just Jon, if you had a crystal ball, I guess, in the sort of near-term, intermediate term on when you think the redemption requests might abate. And just in thinking about that, getting through the Asian investors, which, obviously, were heavier redeemer -- heavier redeemers last year and then getting sort of -- burning through the -- any of the folks that are not happier, want to redeem and getting to those happy investors, so to speak.

偉大的。剛剛回到 BREIT 和 BCRED。只是喬恩，如果你有一個水晶球，我想，在你認為贖回請求可能會減少的短期、中期。想想看，通過亞洲投資者，很明顯，他們是更重的贖回者——去年更重的贖回者，然後有點——燃燒——任何不快樂的人，想要贖回可以這麼說，吸引那些快樂的投資者。

Just in terms of the redemption profile, when would you think you might burn through those requests and get to sort of more of a positive net positive profile? And if you can differentiate that with BCRED? And then also just -- are there more potential institutional investor opportunities in BREIT like you see?

就贖回概況而言，您認為您什麼時候可以完成這些請求並獲得更多積極的淨積極概況？如果您可以將其與 BCRED 區分開來？然後還有——像你看到的那樣，BREIT 是否有更多潛在的機構投資者機會？

Okay. A bunch of questions here. I guess I'd start by saying we endured for a number of months of really negative press, as you know. And so rebuilding momentum takes time. I think the good news is, if you talk with our distribution partners, financial advisers, underlying customers, the tone of those conversations has improved.

好的。這裡有一堆問題。我想我首先要說的是，正如你所知，我們忍受了好幾個月的負面新聞。因此，重建勢頭需要時間。我認為好消息是，如果你與我們的分銷合作夥伴、財務顧問、潛在客戶交談，這些談話的語氣就會有所改善。

There were a lot of concerns, many of which we saw as unfounded that needed to be addressed. And the capital coming in from Cal Regents, $4 billion originally, another $500 million yesterday, it says a lot. It's a real affirmation. There's been a lot of discussion about that capital. But when you really look at what Cal Regents did, it was a subsidy we provided, Blackstone, not BREIT, on the downside of about 4% annually.

有很多擔憂，其中許多我們認為是沒有根據的，需要解決。來自 Cal Regents 的資金，最初是 40 億美元，昨天又增加了 5 億美元，這說明了很多。這是一個真正的肯定。關於那筆資金的討論很多。但是當你真正看看 Cal Regents 所做的事情時，它是我們提供的補貼，Blackstone，而不是 BREIT，每年下降約 4%。

And so unless BREIT performs for them, then they don't get the 11.25% that they're hoping to achieve. And that affirmation of the quality of the portfolio and the valuation of the portfolio was very important for outside investors and for our individual private wealth customers and their financial advisers.

因此，除非 BREIT 為他們表演，否則他們將無法獲得他們希望達到的 11.25%。對投資組合質量和投資組合估值的肯定對於外部投資者以及我們的個人私人財富客戶及其財務顧問來說非常重要。

In terms of would we do more of this? We've had some people reach out. There's a limit to the number of units we own. And we'll just wait and see. But we have had some folks reach out. We'll see what happens on that front. But we really like this transaction because, obviously, it gave a lot of valuable capital to BREIT.

我們會做更多嗎？我們已經讓一些人伸出援手。我們擁有的單位數量是有限制的。我們拭目以待。但我們已經讓一些人伸出援手。我們將看看這方面會發生什麼。但我們真的很喜歡這筆交易，因為很明顯，它為 BREIT 提供了大量寶貴的資金。

It gives, from a Blackstone perspective, we think the product can really perform as we talked about previously. We just need to achieve an 8.7% return well below the product's historical returns in order to generate incremental gain. And then above 11.25%, we get even more in terms of incentive fee sharing. So we look at this as a transaction that makes a lot of sense for us, certainly very helpful for BREIT, particularly the duration of the capital. But we'll wait and see what happens in terms of more.

從 Blackstone 的角度來看，我們認為該產品確實可以像我們之前談到的那樣發揮作用。我們只需要實現遠低於產品歷史回報率的 8.7% 的回報率，就可以產生增量收益。然後超過 11.25%，我們在激勵費用分享方面獲得更多。因此，我們將此視為對我們來說很有意義的交易，對 BREIT 肯定非常有幫助，尤其是資本的持續時間。但我們將拭目以待，看看更多方面會發生什麼。

On BCRED, and then I should answer, I guess, specifically on your question on timing. I'd say the other positive sign out there besides improved tone is the majority of the redemptions we're seeing in January, it's still early, are coming from November and December, unfulfilled requests. So that, to us, is encouraging.

關於 BCRED，然後我應該回答，我想，特別是關於你的時間問題。我想說的是，除了基調改善之外，另一個積極的跡像是我們在 1 月份看到的大部分贖回，現在還早，來自 11 月和 12 月，未滿足的請求。因此，對我們來說，這是令人鼓舞的。

But because those are outstanding and because some investors now are making larger requests than they actually want to achieve because they expect to be cut back, we expect here in January, we will see an uplift in redemptions. But then to your point, we think over time, we'll be able to work down this backlog. Predicting the timing of that is not easy. I think continued strong performance from us is obviously important, continued confidence from the investment community and rebuilding that momentum.

但由於這些未償還，並且因為一些投資者現在提出的要求比他們實際想要的要大，因為他們預計會被削減，我們預計在 1 月份，我們將看到贖回量增加。但就你的觀點而言，我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠處理這些積壓的工作。預測時間並不容易。我認為我們持續強勁的表現顯然很重要，投資界持續保持信心並重建這種勢頭。

So at this point, I wouldn't put a time line on it, but I would say I think the investment from Cal Regents was really important in terms of psychological confidence but we're going to have to wait and see how this plays out. But we feel what gives us our underlying confidence is what's happening in BREIT. The fact that in November, rents in the portfolio were up 10%, the fact that the rents in place are 20% below market.

所以在這一點上，我不會給出時間表，但我會說我認為 Cal Regents 的投資在心理信心方面非常重要，但我們將不得不拭目以待，看看結果如何.但我們覺得給我們潛在信心的是 BREIT 正在發生的事情。事實上，在 11 月，投資組合的租金上漲了 10%，實際租金比市場價低 20%。

And in our major sectors, rental housing and logistics in Q4, we saw almost a 30% decline in new permits or starts. And now, the 10-year treasury, which has been a real headwind on cap rates has come back down. So that makes us feel better about the outlook. And that will be key, I think, to get more investors moving in our direction.

在我們的主要行業，第四季度的出租房屋和物流中，我們看到新許可或開工率下降了近 30%。而現在，10 年期國債一直是資本化率的真正阻力，但現在已經回落。所以這讓我們對前景感覺更好。我認為，這將是讓更多投資者朝著我們的方向前進的關鍵。

On BCRED specifically, there we have continued to have positive net flows. The dynamic is a little different. There's less negativity around real estate. There's obviously the headwind on these vehicles -- oh, sorry, less than around credit. Thank you for the correction. There's less pressure, negative press around the credit space, there's a benefit from rising rates.

具體來說，在 BCRED 上，我們繼續擁有正的淨流量。動態有點不同。圍繞房地產的消極情緒較少。這些車輛顯然存在不利因素——哦，對不起，比信貸少。謝謝你的糾正。信貸空間周圍的壓力和負面壓力較小，利率上升有好處。

And there, we -- again, we've positioned the portfolio, 100% floating rate, 98% senior secured and the products yielding north of 10%, which should go higher as the Fed raises rates. So I think the dynamic there is more positive. And again, I think performance will drive flows.

在那裡，我們 - 再次，我們已經定位了投資組合，100% 的浮動利率，98% 的優先擔保和收益率超過 10% 的產品，隨著美聯儲加息，這些產品應該會更高。所以我認為那裡的動態更積極。再一次，我認為性能將推動流量。

The next question is coming from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

I was hoping to zone in on your secondaries business. You guys raised the potential amount of capital for the latest fund. And it feels like there could be quite a bit of activity in the secondary space given changes LPs are making and obviously, significant macro movements.

我希望能參與您的二級業務。你們為最新的基金籌集了潛在的資金。考慮到有限合夥人正在做出的改變，而且顯然是重大的宏觀運動，感覺二級空間可能會有相當多的活動。

So as you think about velocity of capital in the secondaries business, both LP and GP-led transactions, how do you expect that to shake out? What does that mean for maybe additional product innovation and fundraising within the secondaries franchise for Blackstone?

因此，當您考慮二級業務中的資本流通速度時，包括 LP 和 GP 主導的交易，您預計它會如何擺脫困境？這對 Blackstone 的二級特許經營權內的額外產品創新和籌款意味著什麼？

Well, what anchors the secondaries business is that growth in alternatives we've talked about. We just continue to see that industry grow -- our industry grow, it has been now for 30-plus years, and we don't see that slowing down. And of course, investors at times will want liquidity. Today, about 1% of the industry trades, that's why there tend to be sizable discounts when you're investing in secondaries.

好吧，二級業務的支柱是我們談到的替代品的增長。我們只是繼續看到這個行業在增長——我們的行業在增長，現在已經有 30 多年了，而且我們沒有看到這種放緩。當然，投資者有時會需要流動性。今天，大約 1% 的行業進行交易，這就是為什麼當你投資二級市場時往往會有相當大的折扣。

What we've seen growth and, of course, is in the private equity space, but we also have funds dedicated to real estate and infrastructure. And as you pointed out, GP continuations, which is very popular now, where general partners like an asset or company they own, bring in outside investors and may invest from their new funds as well.

我們看到的增長當然是在私募股權領域，但我們也有專門用於房地產和基礎設施的資金。正如你所指出的，現在非常流行的 GP 延續，普通合夥人喜歡他們擁有的資產或公司，引入外部投資者，也可以從他們的新基金中進行投資。

And that scenario, that we think can grow quite a bit. So it feels to us like this is a business that's sort of coming into its own that the industry can grow to be much larger than it is because of the need for liquidity and the growth in underlying alternatives.

我們認為這種情況可能會增長很多。因此，在我們看來，這是一個正在形成自己的行業，因為對流動性的需求和潛在替代品的增長，該行業可以發展得比現在大得多。

I do think the deal side will be a bit slow here as buyers and sellers have to find equilibrium. But I'm with you, Alex, that in the back half of the year, I would expect we'll see a big pickup in activity. And our scale is a real competitive advantage because we can -- we're investing in 4,000-plus funds across all the geographies, all the segments, and that gives us the ability to be a one-stop shop for the customer.

我確實認為交易方面會有點慢，因為買賣雙方必須找到平衡。但我同意你，亞歷克斯，在今年下半年，我預計我們會看到活動大幅增加。我們的規模是一個真正的競爭優勢，因為我們可以——我們在所有地區、所有細分市場投資了 4,000 多只基金，這使我們有能力成為客戶的一站式商店。

So it's another area where there should be real growth over time. This has now grown to be nearly a $70 billion business. Though by itself, it would be quite large, it just happens to be inside of Blackstone.

所以這是另一個隨著時間的推移應該有真正增長的領域。現在，這已經發展成為一項價值近 700 億美元的業務。雖然就其本身而言，它會相當大，但它恰好位於 Blackstone 內部。

Our next question is coming from Gerry O'Hara with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Gerry O'Hara。

Hoping you could just clarify some comments I believe I heard with respect to where you are on the sort of 12- to 18-month fundraising time horizon towards $150 billion. And specifically, what is sort of ahead of you where you see some of the larger sort of fundraising and what vehicles -- what the sort of makeup of the remaining sort of target goal looks like?

希望你能澄清一些我相信我聽到的關於你在 12 到 18 個月的籌款時間範圍內達到 1500 億美元的情況。具體來說，在你看到一些更大規模的籌款活動和什麼工具之前，你會看到什麼——剩下的目標目標的構成是什麼樣的？

Well, I'm not sure we put sort of specific times. What we really focus on is sort of the vintage of funds we're raising. And as we said and you pointed out, we had a $150 billion target that we've been talking about now for more than a year. The good news is we're at $100 billion, so we're 2/3 of the way through this. Obviously, large fundraises and secondaries, opportunistic global real estate, Asian real estate. We've made a lot of progress on our private equity fundraising.

好吧，我不確定我們是否安排了具體時間。我們真正關注的是我們籌集資金的年份。正如我們所說和您指出的那樣，我們已經討論了 1500 億美元的目標一年多了。好消息是我們達到了 1000 億美元，所以我們已經完成了 2/3。顯然，大型籌資和二級市場、機會主義的全球房地產、亞洲房地產。我們在私募股權融資方面取得了很大進展。

In the balance of the $50 billion, we're talking about raising a new BREDS V real estate debt, fifth fund, which will be a meaningful chunk. We also said we're going to kick off this quarter, our seventh European opportunistic real estate fund, EUR 9.5 billion of third-party capital last time, and we're going to target a similar size again.

在 500 億美元的餘額中，我們正在談論籌集新的 BREDS V 房地產債務，第五基金，這將是一個有意義的部分。我們還表示，我們將在本季度開始，我們的第七隻歐洲機會主義房地產基金，上次的第三方資本為 95 億歐元，我們將再次以類似的規模為目標。

And then we have more to get raised in green energy, both credit and equity. We have some smaller DSP funds that are going to work their way through the system. And then we will launch at some point in 2023, the next vintage of our Life Science business. So we've got a bunch going out there.

然後我們在綠色能源方面有更多的籌集資金，包括信貸和股權。我們有一些較小的 DSP 基金將通過該系統運作。然後我們將在 2023 年的某個時候推出我們生命科學業務的下一個年份。所以我們有一群人出去了。

And the good news, I think, for us is we obviously are large in the U.S. institutional community, but we're big in Canada. We're big in Europe, the Middle East, Asia. And as you know, we've got insurance clients, individual investors and obviously, our institutional clients.

我認為，對我們來說，好消息是我們顯然在美國機構社區中規模很大，但我們在加拿大也很龐大。我們在歐洲、中東和亞洲都很重要。如您所知，我們有保險客戶、個人投資者，顯然還有我們的機構客戶。

Interestingly, everybody is focused on the semi liquids. But if you looked in the fourth quarter, in the drawdown funds, we raised, I think, $3 billion roughly across breadth in BXG, our growth fund in some other areas from individual investors in our drawdown funds. And so that is just another tool we have in our toolkit to help us raise this capital. So we feel good about it, but I certainly would acknowledge it is a tougher environment than when we started.

有趣的是，每個人都關注半液體。但如果你看看第四季度，在撤資基金中，我認為，我們在 BXG 中籌集了大約 30 億美元，這是我們在其他一些領域的增長基金，來自我們撤資基金的個人投資者。因此，這只是我們工具包中幫助我們籌集資金的另一種工具。所以我們對此感覺很好，但我當然承認現在的環境比我們開始時更艱難。

And our next question is coming from Adam Beatty from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty。

Just a follow-up on BPP. You talked a little bit about kind of slowing new commitments in the near or medium term. Just wondering in terms of existing clients and redemption requests, if those are elevated at all, whether that might be driven maybe by liquidity as in the retail channel or just buy some other reallocation. Also on that, to the extent that redemption requests were to be elevated either now or in the future, does that impact at all your ability to collect performance fees?

只是對 BPP 的跟進。您談到了在近期或中期放緩新承諾的情況。只是想知道現有客戶和贖回請求是否有所提高，這是否可能是由零售渠道中的流動性驅動的，或者只是購買一些其他的重新分配。此外，如果現在或將來贖回請求增加，這是否會影響您收取績效費用的所有能力？

Yes. So on BPP, as we talked about, it's $73 billion. It's made up of a lot of vehicles. the majority, I believe, of which are today not open on redemptions. We have in aggregate. I think the number is about 7% outstanding redemption requests across that entire platform.

是的。因此，正如我們所說，在 BPP 上，它是 730 億美元。它由許多車輛組成。我相信，其中大多數今天不開放贖回。我們有總計。我認為這個數字大約是整個平台上未完成贖回請求的 7%。

But importantly, as we talked about earlier, institutional investors understand that liquidity comes from new inflows. And that's very different than the expectations in the private wealth channel. And so I think that's why it's just a different dynamic.

但重要的是，正如我們之前談到的，機構投資者明白流動性來自新的資金流入。這與私人財富渠道的預期大不相同。所以我認為這就是為什麼它只是一種不同的動態。

And the short answer is, yes, I talked about it earlier in this kind of environment for a variety of reasons we expect we'll see less in the way of flows in some of these vehicles. They're not all the same. There may be more interest, for instance, in Core+ Asia real estate than maybe other geographies or other sectors. But this is an area, as I said, I expect the growth, the net growth in the near term will be far more muted. But because if you look at it aggregately, where we position the portfolio, we feel quite good.

簡短的回答是，是的，我早些時候在這種環境中談到過，出於各種原因，我們預計我們會看到其中一些車輛的流動方式減少。他們不完全一樣。例如，與其他地區或其他行業相比，核心+亞洲房地產可能更受關注。但正如我所說，這是一個領域，我預計短期內的增長、淨增長將更加溫和。但是因為如果你從總體上看，我們將投資組合定位在何處，我們感覺非常好。

So if you look at this in BPP, we've got something like -- I think we've delivered 11% net across this platform over time. When you look at life sciences, office buildings, life science office buildings, logistics, residential, that's something like 70% of that portfolio. And so I think that, again, will be the key determinant. But right now, there are some near-term headwinds in that space.

因此，如果您在 BPP 中查看這一點，我們會發現 - 我認為隨著時間的推移，我們已經在這個平台上交付了 11% 的淨收益。當您查看生命科學、辦公樓、生命科學辦公樓、物流、住宅時，大約佔該投資組合的 70%。因此，我認為這將再次成為關鍵決定因素。但是現在，該領域存在一些近期的不利因素。

Our next question is coming from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

Could you update us on how -- I know it's early, obviously, but how LP, like institutional LP commitment discussions have evolved as we kind of restarted the process in January? More specifically, any signs that the backup and PE fundraising is starting to clear. And then more broadly, could you frame any asset classes that you're seeing any meaningful shift in demand for positively or negatively?

您能否向我們介紹一下 - 我知道現在還早，很明顯，但是隨著我們在 1 月份重新啟動流程，LP 和機構 LP 承諾討論如何演變？更具體地說，備份和 PE 籌資開始清晰的任何跡象。然後更廣泛地說，您能否構建您看到任何有意義的積極或消極需求變化的資產類別？

I would say this, the desire for our alternatives remains very strong. Here in the U.S., New York State, the legislature actually increased the allocation for the big 3 pension funds here by roughly 1/3. You've heard some other CIOs publicly talk about wanting to increase allocation to alternatives. I was in Europe a couple of weeks ago meeting with some large insurance companies and institutional investors. They wanted more in alternatives.

我要說的是，對我們的替代品的渴望仍然非常強烈。在美國紐約州，立法機關實際上將這裡的三大養老基金的撥款增加了大約 1/3。你聽說過其他一些 CIO 公開談論想要增加對替代品的配置。幾週前我在歐洲會見了一些大型保險公司和機構投資者。他們想要更多的選擇。

There are some constraints today certainly related to overallocation in the PE area, specifically with U.S. clients. There are some currency headwinds that's made it a little harder for overseas investors. And I would say there is a little bit of a shift. I think private credit is considered more attractive today. And so we see a lot of people moving in that direction.

今天有一些限制肯定與 PE 領域的過度分配有關，特別是與美國客戶。有一些貨幣逆風讓海外投資者更加困難。我會說有一點轉變。我認為私人信貸在今天被認為更具吸引力。所以我們看到很多人朝著這個方向前進。

Infrastructure that we talked about earlier is considered quite attractive, secondaries. And I would say opportunistic real estate, we've had a very good response both to our global fund, of course, and I expect we'll do fine with our European product as well.

我們之前談到的基礎設施被認為是非常有吸引力的，次要的。我會說機會主義房地產，當然，我們對我們的全球基金都有很好的反應，我希望我們的歐洲產品也能做得很好。

So I think these things tend to ebb and flow, but the overall path of travel is towards more alternatives, and that's obviously positive for the industry and positive for us.

所以我認為這些事情往往會潮起潮落，但總的來說，旅行的道路是朝著更多的選擇方向發展，這顯然對行業和我們都是積極的。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

The next one is coming from Ben Budish with Barclays.

下一個來自 Ben Budish 和 Barclays。

I wanted to ask about the FRE margin profile. You kind of beat the consensus expectations pretty nicely in the quarter. Just thinking about in fiscal '23 and over the next few years, you've kind of indicated a sizable step-up in FRE. You kind of indicated very high -- turns business to scale. Just wondering if you can kind of share your thoughts around FRE margin expectation for fiscal '23 and kind of how it should grow over the next couple of years.

我想問一下 FRE 保證金概況。你在本季度很好地超出了普遍預期。想想 23 財年和接下來的幾年，你已經表示 FRE 有相當大的進步。你有點表示非常高 - 將業務擴大規模。只是想知道您是否可以分享您對 23 財年 FRE 利潤率預期的看法，以及它在未來幾年應該如何增長。

Sure, Ben. I mean, I think look, the big pick -- as you know, we don't give sort of spot guidance on porting margin targets in the short term. But our track record over time of sustained expansion, I think, is obviously evident. And I think in general, substantively, we do feel like we have a high degree of control and an appropriate level of discipline with respect to our cost structure. I would just say in terms of the near-term outlook, we remain confident in margin stability over the next year and also for the potential for continued expansion over time.

當然，本。我的意思是，我認為看，大選擇——如你所知，我們不會在短期內就移植利潤率目標提供某種現貨指導。但我認為，我們隨著時間的推移持續擴張的記錄是顯而易見的。而且我認為，總的來說，實質上，我們確實覺得我們對成本結構有高度的控制和適當的紀律。我只想說就近期前景而言，我們對明年的利潤率穩定性以及隨著時間的推移持續擴張的潛力充滿信心。

In OpEx, I would kind of highlight, you did see we talked a lot sort in the course of 2022 about the resumption of T&E and sort of the difficult comparisons. And you did see a flattening of that year-over-year growth rate in other OpEx in the second half of the year. And so what I would say is in 2023, especially I think in sort of the last 3 quarters of the year, that year-over-year comparison will be even easier.

在 OpEx 中，我想強調一下，你確實看到我們在 2022 年期間就 T&E 的恢復以及一些困難的比較進行了很多討論。你確實看到下半年其他運營支出的同比增長率趨於平緩。所以我要說的是在 2023 年，尤其是我認為在今年的最後 3 個季度，同比比較會更容易。

So I would just say, in general, without giving specific targets, we feel good about margin stability and the possibility and potential for continued expansion over time without putting an exact time frame on it.

所以我只想說，總的來說，在沒有給出具體目標的情況下，我們對利潤率的穩定性以及隨著時間的推移持續擴張的可能性和潛力感到滿意，而沒有給出確切的時間框架。

Our next question is coming from Brian McKenna with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的 Brian McKenna。

So you're clearly in a great position to deploy capital into the dislocation across markets with $187 billion of dry powder. A lot of this capital sits within your traditional drawdown funds and strategies. So how should we think about deployment activity moving forward for some of your retail products?

因此，您顯然處於有利地位，可以使用 1870 億美元的干火藥將資金部署到各個市場的錯位中。這些資金中有很大一部分位於您傳統的提款基金和策略中。那麼我們應該如何考慮您的一些零售產品的部署活動呢？

Well, for the retail products, I think this is one of the reasons why getting this large slug of institutional capital was helpful. It gives us the potential to start doing that. Obviously, the activity levels, though overall will be related to flows. There's a correlation, of course, if we get new flows, net flows into BREIT and BCRED.

嗯，對於零售產品，我認為這是獲得大量機構資本有幫助的原因之一。它使我們有可能開始這樣做。顯然，活動水平（儘管總體而言）將與流量相關。當然，如果我們獲得新流量，即流入 BREIT 和 BCRED 的淨流量，就會存在相關性。

And we think it is a good time because you can buy assets, in some cases, at attractive prices because of the dislocation. So I think that's how we see the world today, and that's why over time, as we think capital comes back here, that will allow us and these private wealth channels to deploy more capital, that would be a very favorable thing.

我們認為現在是個好時機，因為在某些情況下，由於錯位，您可以以有吸引力的價格購買資產。所以我認為這就是我們今天看待世界的方式，這就是為什麼隨著時間的推移，我們認為資本會回到這裡，這將使我們和這些私人財富渠道能夠部署更多的資本，這將是一件非常有利的事情。

And there are no further questions in the queue. So let me hand it back over to Weston Tucker for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。所以讓我把它交還給 Weston Tucker 作結束語。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and look forward to following up after the call.

偉大的。感謝大家今天加入我們，並期待在電話會議後跟進。