Barclays PLC (BCS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclays Full Year 2023 Results Fixed Income Conference Call. I will now hand you over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director; and Dan Fairclough, Group Treasurer.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2023 年全年業績固定收益電話會議。現在我將把您交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross；和集團財務主管 Dan Fairclough。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Fixed Income Investor Call for our full year 2023 results and investor update. I'm joined today by Dan Fairclough, our Group Treasurer. Let me begin with a brief overview of our performance over 2023 before speaking to a few slides that summarize the investor update from this morning from a fixed income investor perspective. I'll then hand over to Dan for his overview of the balance sheet.

大家下午好，歡迎參加固定收益投資者電話會議，以了解我們的 2023 年全年業績和投資者最新動態。今天我們的集團財務主管 Dan Fairclough 也加入了我的行列。讓我先簡要概述我們 2023 年的業績，然後用幾張投影片從固定收益投資者的角度總結今天早上的投資者最新情況。然後我將交給 Dan 概述資產負債表。

We delivered on our target in 2023. Return on tangible equity was 10.6% for 2023, in line with our target of above 10%, and we've achieved that in each of the past 3 years. Our cost/income ratio was 63%, in line with our low 60s guidance for the full year. Both of these metrics exclude fourth quarter structural cost actions that we indicated at the time of the Q3 results. The full year RoTE was 9% when including the actions. These are directly linked to our revised financial targets that were announced this morning, and I'll set up out in a moment.

我們在 2023 年實現了目標。2023 年有形股本回報率為 10.6%，與我們超過 10% 的目標一致，而且我們在過去 3 年中每年都實現了這一目標。我們的成本/收入比率為 63%，符合我們全年 60 多歲的指導方針。這兩個指標都不包括我們在第三季業績公佈時指出的第四季結構性成本行動。包括這些行動在內，全年 RoTE 為 9%。這些與我們今天早上宣布的修訂後的財務目標直接相關，我將立即制定。

Our CET1 ratio ended the year at 13.8% towards the top end of our target range. And the low loss rate for the year was 46 basis points, below our through-the-cycle guidance of 50 to 60 basis points, continuing to see the benefit of our long-standing prudent approach to lending and provisioning. Overall, we view this performance as a strong foundation on which to build towards our revised financial targets over the next 3 years. Let me now turn to a very brief summary of the investor update from this morning.

截至年底，我們的 CET1 比率為 13.8%，接近我們目標範圍的上限。今年的低損失率為 46 個基點，低於我們 50 至 60 個基點的整個週期指導，繼續看到我們長期審慎的貸款和撥備方針的好處。整體而言，我們認為這項業績為實現未來三年修訂後的財務目標奠定了堅實的基礎。現在讓我簡單總結一下今天早上的投資者動態。

Here, we laid out our journey since our last strategy update 10 years ago. In that time, we have become leaner, having exited nonpriority businesses and we now operate with fewer people in fewer countries. We are better capitalized with our 13.8% CET1 ratio, 450 basis points higher than a decade ago and RWAs reduced by over 20%. We are creating a simpler, better, more balanced bank dedicated to higher and more stable returns.

在這裡，我們列出了自 10 年前上次策略更新以來的歷程。在那段時間裡，我們變得更加精簡，退出了非優先業務，現在我們在更少的國家以更少的人員開展業務。我們的資本充足，CET1 比率為 13.8%，比十年前高出 450 個基點，風險加權資產 (RWA) 降低了 20% 以上。我們正在創造一個更簡單、更好、更平衡的銀行，致力於更高、更穩定的回報。

So let me begin with a summary of our financial goals and supporting targets. First, we target a RoTE of above 12% in 2026, up from 9% statutory in 2023. Second, we expect this improved profitability to enable us to distribute at least GBP 10 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026. And finally, the proportion of RWAs in our investment bank will reduce from 58% to around 50% by 2026.

首先，讓我總結我們的財務目標和支持目標。首先，我們的目標是到2026 年將RoTE 提高到12% 以上，高於2023 年法定的9%。其次，我們預期獲利能力的提高將使我們能夠在2024 年至2026 年間向股東分配至少100 億英鎊。最後，該比例到 2026 年，我們投資銀行的 RWA 將從 58% 減少到 50% 左右。

On the next slide, we show our clear hierarchy for capital allocation. Our first priority is to hold a prudent level of capital and our 13% to 14% CET1 ratio target is unchanged and includes a prudent buffer to our requirements. With our capital generation capacity, this allows flexibility and the ability to absorb headwinds. Our next priority after maintaining our target regulatory capital is distribution to shareholders.

在下一張投影片中，我們展示了清晰的資本配置層次結構。我們的首要任務是保持審慎的資本水平，我們 13% 至 14% 的 CET1 比率目標保持不變，並包括對我們要求的審慎緩衝。憑藉我們的資本生成能力，這提供了靈活性和吸收逆風的能力。在維持目標監管資本之後，我們的下一個優先事項是分配給股東。

And third, we will balance this thoughtfully as we invest selectively in our higher-returning divisions, resulting in a more profitable RWA mix over time and a better bank for all our stakeholders. We believe the plan set out this morning is constructive for fixed income investors, and Slide 7 provides the highlights.

第三，當我們選擇性地投資於回報率較高的部門時，我們將深思熟慮地平衡這一點，從而隨著時間的推移帶來更有利可圖的RWA 組合，並為所有利益相關者提供更好的銀行。我們相信今天早上製定的計劃對固定收益投資者來說是有建設性的，幻燈片 7 提供了重點內容。

We will be disciplined in how we allocate capital, both across the bank and within each business. By 2026, we plan to allocate around GBP 30 billion of the GBP 50 billion growth in our RWAs to our highest returning divisions, Barclays U.K., the U.K. Corporate Bank and Private Bank and Wealth Management by growing their lending and gaining market share. This includes the GBP 8 billion day 1 RWAs from the acquisition of Tesco's consumer finance business, where the risk profile is consistent with our own portfolio.

我們將嚴格控制整個銀行和每項業務內部的資本分配方式。到2026 年，我們計劃透過增加貸款和獲得市場份額，將RWA 成長的500 億英鎊中的約300 億英鎊分配給回報率最高的部門——英國巴克萊銀行、英國企業銀行、私人銀行和財富管理部門。這包括收購 Tesco 消費金融業務而獲得的 80 億英鎊第 1 天 RWA，其風險狀況與我們自己的投資組合一致。

Turning to the bottom left of the slide, the Investment Bank is now both competitive and at scale. As noted, it accounts for 58% of RWA today and will be circa 50% of group RWAs by 2026. These changes include the absorption by the investment banks of the impact of Basel 3.1. We will increase RWA productivity by allocating capital to the higher-returning international corporate bank and to high-returning secured lending and financing activities in market.

轉向幻燈片的左下角，投資銀行現在既具有競爭力又具有規模。如前所述，它目前佔 RWA 的 58%，到 2026 年將佔集團 RWA 的約 50%。這些變化包括投資銀行吸收巴塞爾 3.1 的影響。我們將透過將資本配置到回報較高的國際企業銀行和市場上高回報的擔保借貸和融資活動來提高RWA生產力。

Moving to the top right-hand quadrant, the RWA allocation underpins our ambition for better quality income as we grow to circa GBP 30 billion by 2026. We consider retail and corporate and financing to be more stable income stream, and we plan for these to account for more than 70% of the bank's income by 2026.

轉到右上象限，隨著我們到2026 年將收入增長到約300 億英鎊，RWA 分配支撐了我們獲得更優質收入的雄心。我們認為零售、企業和融資是更穩定的收入來源，我們計劃將這些收入來源到2026年，該業務將佔銀行收入的70%以上。

While there is significant growth in lending in our plans, we do this while maintaining our through-the-cycle loan loss rate guidance of 50 to 60 basis points. We can achieve this given we have the capacity to grow lending within our existing risk appetite, as we derisked our overall lending profile through recent macroeconomic crisis.

雖然我們的計劃中的貸款大幅增長，但我們在實現這一目標的同時，仍將整個週期的貸款損失率指導維持在 50 至 60 個基點。鑑於我們有能力在現有風險偏好範圍內增加貸款，我們可以實現這一目標，因為我們透過最近的宏觀經濟危機降低了整體貸款狀況的風險。

As a result, our lending portfolios have either stepped back in market share or have run with lower risk versus peers. We see an opportunity to reestablish our position in lending in the U.K. and unsecured in particular. For market risk, whilst not on the slide, the Investment Bank presentation this morning demonstrated our controlled approach with a broadly flat bar profile despite increased volumes.

因此，我們的貸款投資組合要麼市佔率有所回落，要麼與同業相比風險較低。我們看到了重新確立我們在英國貸款領域（尤其是無擔保貸款）地位的機會。對於市場風險，雖然沒有出現在幻燈片上，但今天早上的投資銀行演示展示了我們的受控方法，儘管交易量有所增加，但條形圖大致平坦。

Let me conclude with a summary on Slide 8. We have a high returning U.K. retail and corporate franchise that complements our top-tier global investment bank with scale in our core U.K. and U.S. markets, and we deploy capital between those businesses in a disciplined way. We plan to deliver about 12% RoTE by 2026, reflecting both ambition and realism. We are well capitalized, have deep liquidity and sound risk management, which, combined with consistent and improved profitability will enable higher return of capital.

最後讓我對幻燈片8 進行總結。我們在英國擁有高回報的零售和企業特許經營權，可以補充我們在英國和美國核心市場的規模的頂級全球投資銀行，並且我們以嚴格的方式在這些業務之間部署資本。我們計劃在 2026 年實現約 12% 的 RoTE，體現了雄心和現實。我們資本充足，流動性充足，風險管理健全，加上持續且不斷提高的獲利能力，將帶來更高的資本回報。

As I said, this is a plan that delivers for all of our stakeholders. Hopefully, that has given you a helpful summary.

正如我所說，這是一個為我們所有利害關係人提供服務的計劃。希望這為您提供了有用的總結。

I'll now hand over to Dan for the balance sheet highlights.

現在我將把資產負債表的要點交給丹。

Thanks, Anna. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet as evidenced by the metrics on the slide. The CET1 ratio of 13.8% places us at the upper end of the target range and the MREL ratio of 33.6% provides GBP 12 billion of headroom above our requirements. Our liquidity coverage ratio of 161% and low loan-to-deposit ratio of 74% demonstrates a robust balance sheet position.

謝謝，安娜。正如幻燈片上的指標所證明的那樣，我們以強勁的資產負債表結束了這一年。 13.8% 的 CET1 比率使我們處於目標範圍的上限，33.6% 的 MREL 比率為我們的要求提供了 120 億英鎊的空間。我們 161% 的流動性覆蓋率和 74% 的低貸存比顯示了穩健的資產負債表狀況。

Let me begin with capital. CET1 ratio for the year-end reflected the resilience of our capital generation despite absorbing one-off items in Q4. Structural cost actions and underlying growth in RWAs had a total impact of 45 basis points, and this was partially offset by profits, allowing us to end the quarter 23 basis points below the Q3 position. Our underlying RoTE for the year of 10.6% generated 146 basis points of capital for the year-end.

讓我從資本開始。儘管在第四季度吸收了一次性項目，但年末的 CET1 比率反映了我們資本產生的彈性。結構性成本行動和 RWA 的潛在成長總共產生了 45 個基點的影響，這被利潤部分抵消，使我們在本季末比第三季低 23 個基點。我們當年 10.6% 的基本 RoTE 為年底帶來了 146 個基點的資本。

And our 2026 RoTE target of greater than 12% is expected to generate greater than 200 basis points. And with the continued strength of our capital position, we announced a GBP 1 billion share buyback this morning. This would rebase the ratio to 13.5% in the middle of our target range.

我們的 2026 年 RoTE 目標超過 12%，預計將產生超過 200 個基點。隨著我們資本狀況的持續增強，我們今天早上宣布了 10 億英鎊的股票回購。這將使該比率重新調整為我們目標範圍中間的 13.5%。

In Q1, we expect the usual seasonal effects as we lean into market opportunities and the associated RWA growth. The MDA increased 15 basis points to 12% in Q4, reflecting the PRA's annual recalibration of our Pillar 2A requirement. As you heard this morning, having a sufficient headroom above our regulatory requirements is the foremost priority in our capital management framework, and we remain comfortable with the GBP 6 billion of capital headroom we have. The announced acquisition of Tesco's consumer banking portfolios is circa 30 basis points impact of CET1 in 2024 and will be accommodated within our flight path management.

在第一季度，隨著我們關注市場機會和相關的 RWA 成長，我們預計會出現通常的季節性影響。第四季 MDA 增加了 15 個基點，達到 12%，反映了 PRA 對我們的支柱 2A 要求的年度重新調整。正如您今天早上所聽到的，在我們的資本管理框架中，擁有高於監管要求的充足空間是我們的首要任務，我們對 60 億英鎊的資本空間仍然感到滿意。宣布收購 Tesco 的消費者銀行業務組合對 2024 年 CET1 的影響約為 30 個基點，並將納入我們的航班路徑管理範圍內。

You've already heard Anna's comments on our RWA plans over the next 3 years, and I want to address 2 main regulatory headwinds over the following slides. The first is a move of our U.S. cards portfolio to an internal ratings-based or IRB model. We continue to make significant progress towards the at least 85% of credit risk RWAs being IRB, which is the level required by the PRA for IRB banks.

您已經聽過 Anna 對我們未來 3 年 RWA 計劃的評論，我想在下面的幻燈片中解決兩個主要的監管阻力。第一個是將我們的美國信用卡組合轉向基於內部評級或 IRB 模型。我們繼續在至少 85% 的信用風險 RWA 為 IRB 方面取得重大進展，這是 PRA 對 IRB 銀行所要求的水平。

This move results in an expected increase in RWAs of circa GBP 16 billion from H2 2024. We don't expect any further material impact from model migrations from current portfolios beyond U.S. cards.

這項舉措預計從 2024 年下半年開始，風險加權資產 (RWA) 將增加約 160 億英鎊。我們預計，美國卡以外的當前投資組合的模型遷移不會產生任何進一步的實質影響。

The second headwind is Basel 3.1, which we've quantified publicly for some time. The PRA's recent policy paper was constructive, and we have also worked through some further refinements and mitigations. Furthermore, our previous Basel 3.1 guidance included an element of -- for U.S. cards RWAs which has been superseded by the IRB migration. The aggregate impact of these factors means a materially lower expected impact from Basel 3.1 on implementation.

第二個阻力是巴塞爾 3.1，我們已經公開量化了一段時間。 PRA 最近的政策文件具有建設性，我們也進行了一些進一步的改進和緩解措施。此外，我們先前的巴塞爾 3.1 指南包括針對美國卡 RWA 的一個要素，該要素已被 IRB 遷移所取代。這些因素的整體影響意味著巴塞爾 3.1 對實施的預期影響將大大降低。

Given the lower Basel 3.1 impact estimate, the total effect of the 2 headwinds is broadly aligned to the previously guided day 1 impact of Basel towards the lower end of 5% to 10% of group RWAs. In the PRA's update, they reaffirmed they would avoid double counting risks in Pillar 1 that are in Pillar 2A. We expect this offset to be formalized by the PRA prior to Basel 3.1 implementation. The effect of this will be to reduce our minimum requirements, including our MDA hurdle.

鑑於巴塞爾 3.1 影響估計較低，這兩種不利因素的總影響與先前指導的巴塞爾第 1 天對集團 RWA 5% 至 10% 下限的影響大致一致。在 PRA 的更新中，他們重申將避免重複計算第 1 支柱和第 2A 支柱中的風險。我們預計 PRA 將在巴塞爾 3.1 實施之前正式確定此抵銷金額。這樣做的結果將是降低我們的最低要求，包括我們的 MDA 障礙。

On the next slide, we illustrate the drivers of the increase from implementing IRB for U.S. cards. Our IRB models when applied to U.S. cards generate a greater risk weight density versus standardized models. The key drivers are the IRB model captures unused credit lines more conservatively and it includes 2009 financial crisis stress loss assumptions despite current and expected experience being materially less adverse.

在下一張投影片中，我們將說明美國信用卡實施 IRB 帶來的成長驅動因素。與標準化模型相比，我們的 IRB 模型應用於美國卡時會產生更大的風險權重密度。關鍵驅動因素是 IRB 模型更保守地獲取未使用的信貸額度，並且包括 2009 年金融危機壓力損失假設，儘管當前和預期的不利情況要小得多。

Under the U.S. Basel 3 endgame treatment, we expect to add peers in the U.S. to also experience a capital increase, although noting that these are yet to be finalized. We, therefore, do not believe the IRB introduction will materially affect our competitive position in the U.S. credit card market, although there is clearly work to do to mitigate the RoTE impact of the higher capital charges.

根據美國巴塞爾協議 3 的最終處理，我們預計美國的同行也將經歷增資，但我們注意到這些尚未最終確定。因此，我們認為 IRB 的引入不會對我們在美國信用卡市場的競爭地位產生重大影響，儘管顯然還有很多工作要做來減輕較高資本費用對 RoTE 的影響。

On Slide 14, we show our total capital requirements as a proportion of RWAs, split out by Tier 1 and total capital, respectively. We continue to target a prudent buffer against each of these requirements, and this is visible on the slide. Taking each tier in turn. On a Tier 1 basis, we currently have a 17.7% ratio with a healthy headroom over our 14.3% regulatory requirement. Within this ratio, you can see that we had a robust AT1 component of 3.5%.

在投影片 14 上，我們顯示了總資本要求佔 RWA 的比例，分別以一級資本和總資本劃分。我們繼續針對這些要求制定審慎的緩衝措施，這一點在投影片上可見。依序進行每一層。在一級基礎上，我們目前的比率為 17.7%，與 14.3% 的監管要求相比還有健康的空間。在此比率中，您可以看到我們的 AT1 成分高達 3.5%。

During 2023, we maintained strong levels of AT1 over a challenging year for the asset class. The AT1 market has normalized, coupled with the prudent position we're at, we expect to be a net negative issuer in 2024 noting we have GBP 2.8 billion equivalent of AT1 instruments with first call dates due this year. Of course, this remains subject to our economic assessment of these calls and regulatory permission at the appropriate time. That does demonstrate the responsive and dynamic way, we are able to manage this tier of capital through our issuance and regular call profile.

2023 年，我們在該資產類別充滿挑戰的一年中保持了 AT1 的強勁水平。 AT1 市場已經正常化，加上我們所處的審慎立場，我們預計將在 2024 年成為淨負發行人，因為我們擁有 28 億英鎊等值的 AT1 工具，首次贖回日期將於今年到期。當然，這仍然取決於我們對這些呼籲的經濟評估以及適當時間的監管許可。這確實證明了我們能夠透過發行和定期贖回資料來管理這一層資本的反應靈敏和動態的方式。

As mentioned before, we value our AT1 components and the many regulatory benefits it provides namely on Tier 1, total capital, MREL and leverage, and it will continue to be a deliberate strategy of ours to operate with robust levels through the cycle. This reflects attractive opportunities for liquid leveraged balance sheet in our businesses.

如前所述，我們重視我們的 AT1 組件及其提供的許多監管優勢，即一級資本、總資本、MREL 和槓桿率，並且在整個週期中以穩健的水平運營將繼續成為我們深思熟慮的戰略。這反映了我們業務中流動性槓桿資產負債表的誘人機會。

Moving on to total capital. Our buffer over our regulatory minimum remains healthy at 260 basis points. The strength of our Tier 1 level continues to support this position. As a result, our Tier 2 requirements have remained modest over recent years, largely replacing our existing card and amortization profile.

轉向總資本。我們對監管最低限度的緩衝仍然保持在 260 個基點的健康水準。我們一級的實力繼續支持這一地位。因此，近年來我們的二級要求一直保持適度，很大程度上取代了我們現有的卡片和攤提資料。

In line with previous years, we do expect to be active with issuance in Tier 2 as we seek to maintain current prudent levels.

與往年一樣，我們確實預計將積極進行二級發行，因為我們力求維持當前的審慎水準。

Turning now to MREL, which also continues to be managed well in excess of regulatory requirements. At year-end 2023, we had an MREL ratio of 33.6%, which was comfortably above our requirements of 30.1%. This was supported with GBP 14 billion equivalent of issuance in 2023 as we successfully navigated through a challenging set of market conditions. For 2024, we expect to issue around GBP 12 billion equivalent across AT1, Tier 2 and senior. Our MREL issuance plan continues to be dynamic and is driven by a combination of factors such as balance sheet needs, regulatory requirements and the impact of FX and rates on our MREL stock.

現在轉向 MREL，它的管理也繼續良好，超出了監管要求。截至 2023 年底，我們的 MREL 比率為 33.6%，遠高於我們 30.1% 的要求。我們成功度過了充滿挑戰的市場環境，並於 2023 年發行了 140 億英鎊等值的債券，為此目標提供了支持。到 2024 年，我們預計將在 AT1、二級和高級一級發行約 120 億英鎊等值的債券。我們的 MREL 發行計劃繼續保持動態，並受到資產負債表需求、監管要求以及外匯和利率對 MREL 股票的影響等因素的綜合推動。

Moving on to deposits. We have maintained a stable deposit base throughout the course of the year and demonstrated the resilience of having a diverse deposit franchise across consumer, SME and corporate sectors. As you can see on the slide, the mix of the deposit base has shifted over the year, with consumer deposits down, reflecting market conditions and almost fully offset by the increase in SME and corporate deposits.

轉向存款。我們全年保持穩定的存款基礎，並展現了在消費者、中小企業和企業領域擁有多元化存款業務的彈性。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，一年來存款基礎的結構發生了變化，消費者存款下降，反映了市場狀況，但幾乎完全被中小企業和企業存款的增加所抵消。

Given continued quantitative tapering and upcoming TFSME repayments, the outlook for overall money supply growth remains muted, and we expect this to be reflected in a broadly stable deposit base subject to normal seasonal variations over the year. We expect GBP 7 billion of deposits from the Tesco consumer portfolio acquisition to transfer in the second half of the year.

鑑於持續的量化縮減和即將到來的 TFSME 還款，整體貨幣供應增長的前景仍然黯淡，我們預計這將反映在受全年正常季節性變化影響的大體穩定的存款基礎上。我們預計 Tesco 消費投資組合收購中的 70 億英鎊存款將在今年下半年轉移。

On to the next slide on liquidity. Our average LCR at 161% provided GBP 118 billion in excess of the regulatory requirement and our liquidity position remained robust throughout the year. This liquidity position also provides ample coverage for our TFSME drawings of GBP 21.9 billion. And you can see the repayment profile is spread through to 2027. We will watch for any impact on TFSME redemptions across the industry, but it's not a material impact for Barclays.

下一張關於流動性的幻燈片。我們的平均 LCR 為 161%，提供的資金超過監管要求 1,180 億英鎊，並且我們的流動性狀況全年保持強勁。這種流動性狀況也為我們的 219 億英鎊 TFSME 提款提供了充足的保障。您可以看到還款情況延續到 2027 年。我們將關注整個產業對 TFSME 贖回的任何影響，但這對巴克萊銀行來說不會產生重大影響。

Moving on to the structural hedge. Given we are at a point in the cycle where rates may have peaked and a market expectation of rate cuts from here, the hedge acts as an important stabilizer to income, the expected NII tailwind is significant and relatively predictable. To illustrate this, even with swap rates lower in Q4, we have already locked in GBP 8.6 billion aggregate hedge income over the next 3 years. Of this, GBP 3.8 billion is locked in this year higher than in 2023, and this will continue to build due to the impact of roles this year on to higher rates.

轉向結構性對沖。鑑於我們正處於利率可能已見頂的周期中，並且市場預期降息，對沖是收入的重要穩定器，預期的NII順風是顯著且相對可預測的。為了說明這一點，即使第四季掉期利率較低，我們也已經鎖定了未來 3 年 86 億英鎊的總避險收入。其中，今年鎖定的金額為 38 億英鎊，高於 2023 年，而且由於今年角色對利率上升的影響，這一數字還將繼續增加。

We also anticipate income from the expected reinvestment of approximately 75% of the maturing GBP 170 billion of positions over the next 3 years at an average yield of 1.5%, significantly lower than current swap rates. These maturities reinvested at current swap rates would expect to compound over the next 3 years to increase structural hedge income in 2026 by circa GBP 2 billion based on these assumptions and rates.

我們也預計，未來 3 年內 1,700 億英鎊到期部位中約 75% 的預期再投資將帶來收入，平均殖利率為 1.5%，遠低於目前掉期利率。根據這些假設和利率，以目前掉期利率進行再投資的這些期限預計將在未來 3 年內實現複利，到 2026 年結構性對沖收入將增加約 20 億英鎊。

Turning finally to credit ratings. Improving our credit ratings has been a key strategic priority, and we're pleased to have secured 2 upgrades in 2023. Our medium-term aim for Barclays PLC senior to qualify as Single A composite across all indices remains an important target.

最後轉向信用評級。提高我們的信用評級一直是關鍵的策略重點，我們很高興在2023 年獲得兩次評級升級。我們的中期目標是讓巴克萊銀行(Barclays PLC) 在所有指數中獲得高級A 級綜合評級，這仍然是一個重要目標。

Let me conclude. We have demonstrated once again the strength and resilience of our diversified business model and balance sheet over a challenging year of volatility for the sector. Our robust capital and liquidity positions are an important underpinning for the strategy and targets that we've updated on today, and we're well positioned to support our businesses in the journey to 2026.

讓我總結一下。在該行業充滿挑戰的動盪一年中，我們再次展示了多元化業務模式和資產負債表的實力和彈性。我們強勁的資本和流動性狀況是我們今天更新的策略和目標的重要基礎，我們有能力支持我們的業務邁向 2026 年。

And with that, I'll hand back to Anna.

說到這裡，我會把事情交還給安娜。

Thank you, Dan. We would now like to open the call for questions, and I hope you have found this call helpful. Operator, please go ahead.

謝謝你，丹。我們現在要開始提問電話，希望您認為這次電話會議對您有幫助。接線員，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question today comes from Lee Street from Citigroup.

我們今天的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Lee Street。

I have 3, please. Just firstly, on the investment bank, and I know it was discussed a lot this morning, but I'm just trying to get my hand on why investment bank capital allocation is the right number.

我有3個，拜託。首先，關於投資銀行，我知道今天早上對此進行了很多討論，但我只是想了解為什麼投資銀行的資本配置是正確的數字。

And just to delve a little bit more into why allocating half your capital to what still looks like will be one of your lowest return businesses, if that makes sense. Just a little bit on that would be helpful. Secondly, on the rating, thank you for your comments there. Just -- I know you said you're targeting a composite A rating at the holdco. You are targeting ratings at both -- A ratings at both S&P and Moody's, and have you held any discussions with them to see the new 12% RoTE target and associated targets might be sufficient for in the medium term? And then finally, just a point of clarification. Do you think the MDA threshold has peaked at 12% now? That would be my questions.

只是為了更深入地研究為什麼將一半的資本分配給看起來仍然是回報率最低的業務之一，如果這有意義的話。只要稍微了解一下就會有所幫助。其次，關於評分，謝謝您的評論。只是——我知道您說過您的目標是控股公司獲得綜合 A 評級。您的目標評級是標準普爾和穆迪的 A 評級，您是否與他們進行過任何討論，以了解新的 12% RoTE 目標和相關目標在中期內是否足夠？最後，需要澄清一點。您認為 MDA 門檻現在是否已達到 12% 的峰值？這就是我的問題。

Thank you for joining us, this is Anna. I'll take the first question, and then I'll hand over to Dan for the other 2. So in terms of the 50% to -- or broadly 50% to the IB, clearly, within that, there is a real reduction because we are asking the IB to absorb the changes associated with Basel 3.1. And whilst it's returning a fairly low RoTE right now and below the overall group average, that is not our ambition for this business, and we set out some clear targets today for it to be burning in line with the group by 2026.

感謝您加入我們，我是安娜。我將回答第一個問題，然後將其他 2 個問題交給 Dan。因此，就 IB 的 50% 或大致 50% 而言，顯然，其中確實有所減少因為我們要求IB 吸收與巴塞爾3.1 相關的變化。雖然它目前的回報率相當低，低於集團整體平均水平，但這並不是我們對這項業務的抱負，我們今天制定了一些明確的目標，要求其到 2026 年與集團保持一致。

On the other side of the percentage, the GBP 30 billion, we think is the right level of scale of growth for those businesses to absorb over the period for that 3-year journey. And I would say that the 50% is a point in time. It's purely where we believe we'll be in 2026. It's not supposed to be any indication of a sort of perfect balance between investment banking and the rest of the bank. So hopefully, that's a bit clearer. Dan?

另一方面，我們認為 300 億英鎊是這些企業在 3 年旅程中吸收的適當成長規模。我想說 50% 是一個時間點。這純粹是我們相信 2026 年我們會達到的目標。這並不意味著投資銀行業務與銀行其他部門之間存在某種完美平衡。希望這能更清楚。擔？

Yes. Lee, so getting to a single A composite, it would require a ratings upgrade with either Moody's or S&P. Clearly, we have ongoing dialogues with the agencies. And clearly, as you would expect, we've discussed the investor update with them. We think that what we've got here is really positive from a credit perspective. Clearly, the returns target is helpful. We think it provides further diversification and we think it fits within the existing risk appetite. And clearly, we've been very firm on our commitment to the capital ratio target.

是的。 Lee，因此要獲得單一 A 級綜合評級，就需要穆迪或標準普爾的評級升級。顯然，我們正在與各機構進行對話。顯然，正如您所期望的，我們已經與他們討論了投資者的最新情況。我們認為，從信用角度來看，我們現在所取得的成果確實是正面的。顯然，回報目標是有幫助的。我們認為它提供了進一步的多元化，並且符合現有的風險偏好。顯然，我們對資本比率目標的承諾非常堅定。

So we think there is lots to like in here from a credit perspective and from a rating agency perspective, and working with them will be a key management focus for us. And then I think your last question was just on the MDA level and where it might go from here. So obviously, we go through an annual review with the PRA. I think our expectation is there are good reasons to think that the MDA may go down with the implementation of Basel 3.1.

因此，我們認為從信用角度和評級機構的角度來看，這裡有很多值得喜歡的地方，與他們合作將是我們的關鍵管理重點。然後我認為你的最後一個問題只是關於 MDA 級別以及它可能會走向何方。顯然，我們會與 PRA 進行年度審查。我認為我們的預期是有充分的理由認為 MDA 可能會隨著巴塞爾 3.1 的實施而下降。

I think the PRA has been reasonably clear that they wouldn't expect to double up in capital items. So we'll have to see how that goes. I think there'll be a consultation paper out on it, but I think there's good reason to think that, that may reduce. And obviously, that would reduce our minimum requirements at that point.

我認為 PRA 已經相當明確地表示，他們不會期望資本項目會翻倍。所以我們得看看事情進展如何。我認為將會有一份關於它的諮詢文件，但我認為有充分的理由認為這可能會減少。顯然，這會降低我們當時的最低要求。

Next question comes from Daniel David from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Daniel David。

Congratulations on the results. I just want to fix on capital generation. Looking at the MDA buffer and CET1 target, this remains a bit low compared to UPAs. And I guess with GBP 10 billion of payouts coming, this could scare investors that you're prioritizing equity over credit. So just to drill on that a bit more. If you're running at the lower end of your CET1 guidance range for a prolonged period, would you consider reducing the equity payout to boost the MDA headroom? And following on from that, do you think the low CET1 target and headroom impacts your spreads and hence cost of funding?

祝賀結果。我只想解決資本生成問題。看看 MDA 緩衝區和 CET1 目標，與 UPA 相比，這仍然有點低。我猜隨著 100 億英鎊的支出即將到來，這可能會嚇到投資者，讓他們相信你優先考慮的是股權而不是信貸。所以只是要進一步鑽研一下。如果您長期處於 CET1 指導範圍的下限，您會考慮減少股權支出以提高 MDA 空間嗎？接下來，您認為較低的 CET1 目標和淨空會影響您的利差，進而影響融資成本嗎？

And then finally, just on the AT1 stack. I know your comments on being a net negative issuer, if I look back over the last few years, I think you've always maintained 3.5% to, say, 4% AT1s on an RWA basis. Is this the range we should think of longer term? Or is there a chance that, that could fall away and reduce that over time?

最後，就在 AT1 堆疊上。我知道您對成為淨負發行人的評論，如果我回顧過去幾年，我認為您一直在 RWA 的基礎上維持 3.5% 到 4% 的 AT1。這是我們應該考慮更長遠的範圍嗎？或者隨著時間的推移，這種情況是否有可能消失並減少？

Yes. Okay. Just happy to take those questions. So in terms of the capital ratio position, look, I think I covered some of it in my speech. I think firstly, the capital generation is really important here. So 10% RoTE is 150 basis points of CET1 generation.

是的。好的。我很高興回答這些問題。因此，就資本比率狀況而言，我想我在演講中涵蓋了其中的一些內容。我認為首先，資本的產生在這裡非常重要。因此，10% RoTE 是 CET1 世代的 150 個基點。

And we think that, that really gives us a lot of flexibility. The second point I'd probably make is that we have a lot of flexibility in the velocity of our RWAs. That allows us to manage our capital base in a very nimble way and in a more nimble way than if we were purely a banking book balance sheet. So for both of those reasons, we think that the capital ratio target is appropriate. As I said to my earlier answer, there may be reasons why the MDA will reduce over time, but we'll have to keep that under review.

我們認為，這確實給了我們很大的彈性。我可能要說的第二點是，我們的 RWA 速度有很大的彈性。這使我們能夠以非常靈活的方式管理我們的資本基礎，並且比純粹的銀行帳簿資產負債表更靈活。因此，基於這兩個原因，我們認為資本比率目標是合適的。正如我在先前的回答中所說，MDA 可能會隨著時間的推移而減少，但我們必須對此進行審查。

And then your sort of question about -- I think it was really a question about relative priority. I think it's really, really important and Anna said it in her comments, the #1 priority for us is to maintain a prudent regulatory capital position in the target range. And we've been quite clear that, that is our #1 priority. So hopefully, that helps with that question.

然後你的問題是——我認為這實際上是一個關於相對優先順序的問題。我認為這真的非常重要，安娜在她的評論中說，我們的第一要務是在目標範圍內保持審慎的監管資本狀況。我們非常清楚，這是我們的第一要務。希望這對回答這個問題有幫助。

Second question was about the AT1 stack. So you're right, we've said we will be a net negative issuer in 2024. So we think we can do with slightly less AT1 than the core schedule. I won't give you a guide on exactly where we're going to be. But we're comfortable issuing less in 2024. And there'll be an element here on RWA density.

第二個問題是關於 AT1 堆疊的。所以你是對的，我們說過我們將在 2024 年成為淨負發行人。所以我們認為我們可以用比核心計劃略少的 AT1 來完成。我不會給你一個關於我們要去哪裡的指導。但我們願意在 2024 年減少發行量。這裡將有一個關於 RWA 密度的因素。

So there's reasons to think both with the switch to IRB model and Basel 3.1. Part of the identity will be slightly higher. So all other things being equal, that will create a bit more leverage capacity.

因此，有理由考慮轉向 IRB 模型和巴塞爾 3.1。部分身份會稍高。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這將創造更多的槓桿能力。

The next question comes from Paul Fenner from Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的保羅‧芬納。

So a number of my questions have been answered. So let me just run through those that haven't. The first, I guess, is a 2-parter and really comes back to this investment bank versus U.K. kind of refocus. I guess you've been reticent to do that for a number of years, right? I mean it's been in all of the papers, there's been a constant sort of discussion on these kind of calls. I guess my question is, and I'm sorry if it's a repeat on the -- from this morning.

這樣我的一些問題就得到了解答。那麼就讓我來看看那些還沒有的。我想，第一個是由兩部分組成的，真正回到了投資銀行與英國的重新聚焦。我想你多年來一直不願意這麼做，對嗎？我的意思是，所有的報紙上都出現過這種情況，對這類電話的討論一直在進行。我想我的問題是，如果從今天早上開始重複的話，我很抱歉。

But what's changed from this point last year to this year in terms of your outlook for investment banking or your investment banking or the pocket of fees, just so we understand and put that into context. And likewise, what's changed about your outlook in the U.K.? What is it that's -- that has either fundamentally changed in terms of the outlook or what is it that you have misunderstood in terms of risk return?

但是，從去年的這個時候到今年，您對投資銀行業務的前景或您的投資銀行業務或費用的口袋發生了哪些變化，以便我們可以理解並將其置於背景中。同樣，您對英國的看法有何改變？前景方面發生了根本性變化，或者您在風險回報方面誤解了什麼？

And in particular, within the U.K., you're obviously now going to be taking market share in some of the riskier parts of that spectrum, including high LTV mortgages and consumer credit, which kind of feels a little bit opposite direction to traffic. So a bit of commentary around that would be super helpful.

特別是在英國，你現在顯然將在該領域的一些風險較高的部分佔據市場份額，包括高 LTV 抵押貸款和消費者信貸，這感覺與流量方向有點相反。因此，對此進行一些評論將會非常有幫助。

Second question, commercial real estate, I don't think it's been mentioned in any of these calls. Could you just give us your two cents on where your book is and what you think about the noise out there around that asset class? Third, on supply -- thank you very much for the very clear comments around 2024. Given your refocus towards the U.K. and consumer, in particular, does this mean that we should expect looking out 2025, '26, that you will be a smaller issuer than you have been hithered to? I think that's it.

第二個問題，商業地產，我認為這些電話中都沒有提到這一點。您能否向我們介紹一下您的書的情況以及您對圍繞該資產類別的噪音的看法？第三，關於供應——非常感謝您在2024 年左右發表的非常明確的評論。鑑於您重新關注英國和消費者，特別是，這是否意味著我們應該期待2025 年，'26，您將成為一個較小的公司發行人比您一直以來的發行人？我想就是這樣。

Okay. Thank you, Paul. That's a marathon. We'll try and remember them all as we go. So Dan, why don't you start off the first question and then I can add?

好的。謝謝你，保羅。那是一場馬拉松。我們會盡力記住它們。那麼丹，為什麼不先提出第一個問題，然後我可以補充呢？

Yes. So obviously, we spent a lot of time with investors as we work through the investor update. So probably the first point is here that we've listened to what investors have told us and their views and preferences on shape. In terms of the investment bank specifically, we view that we are at scale, and we need to be at the scale to really ensure that we're relevant for all of our clients. So it's not that we've radically changed approach here, but we think it's important to put a cap on the total size.

是的。顯然，我們在更新投資者資訊時花了很多時間與投資者交流。因此，第一點可能是我們聽取了投資者告訴我們的內容以及他們對形狀的看法和偏好。具體就投資銀行而言，我們認為我們已經達到規模，並且我們需要達到規模才能真正確保我們與所有客戶相關。因此，我們並不是從根本上改變了方法，但我們認為限制總規模很重要。

In relation to the other areas of the bank that we're going to be growing, which obviously do have a U.K. focus, I think a lot of this is also consistent with some of the things that we've discussed before. We certainly took a prudent risk view post-Brexit, and we were particularly prudent on the U.K. consumer.

關於我們將要發展的銀行的其他領域（顯然確實以英國為重點），我認為其中許多內容也與我們之前討論過的一些事情是一致的。在英國脫歐後，我們當然採取了謹慎的風險觀點，我們對英國消費者尤其謹慎。

I think the U.K. consumer has been very resilient since that point. And I think the U.K. macro environment has actually been pretty resilient as well. And we have reduced our presence in a number of those key markets. So we've reduced market share in both the U.K. cards and in unsecured quite materially over that period.

我認為自那時以來，英國消費者一直非常有彈性。我認為英國的宏觀環境其實也相當有彈性。我們已經減少了在許多關鍵市場的業務。因此，在此期間，我們大幅減少了英國卡和無擔保卡的市場份額。

So we look at situation now and with the relative stabilization we've got, we feel there is an opportunity to step back into those spaces. Clearly, we've started some of this with the Kensington acquisition. And I think we flagged already that we were rebuilding our U.K. cards presence. Tesco is really a continuation of that journey. So we don't really view it as a material increase in credit risk appetite, but really, really reaffirming some of the appetite that we had historically.

因此，我們看看現在的情況，隨著我們所獲得的相對穩定，我們認為有機會重新進入這些領域。顯然，我們已經透過收購 Kensington 開始了其中的一些工作。我認為我們已經表明我們正在重建我們在英國的信用卡業務。特易購確實是這趟旅程的延續。因此，我們並不真正將其視為信用風險偏好的實質增加，但實際上確實重申了我們歷史上的一些偏好。

Thanks, Dan. I think the only thing to add, Paul, would be we are starting from a very different place here. So if you look at our U.K. cards, look, it's 35% lower than it was. The arrears performance is consistently below 1% and has been for multiple quarters now and much, much lower than we would regard as a normal amount.

謝謝，丹。保羅，我認為唯一要補充的是，我們是從一個非常不同的地方開始的。所以如果你看看我們的英國卡，你會發現它比以前低了 35%。拖欠率一直低於 1%，並且已經連續多個季度如此，而且比我們認為的正常金額低得多。

Similarly on U.K. mortgages, the arrears rates are extremely low. And actually, our starting position for the book as a whole and just a touch above 50% for the LTV of the book, and we're acquiring typically at around 63% and is only 1.6% of our book that's over 90% LTV. So these are extremely low-risk portfolios as we have them now. And we're talking about well-controlled, well-defined steps using capabilities that we've acquired or have in-house.

同樣，英國抵押貸款的拖欠率也極低。事實上，我們對整本書的起始定位是，這本書的 LTV 略高於 50%，我們的購買率通常在 63% 左右，僅占我們書籍的 1.6%，而 LTV 超過 90%。因此，這些是我們現在擁有的風險極低的投資組合。我們正在談論使用我們已經獲得或內部擁有的功能來進行良好控制、明確定義的步驟。

I think the Kensington piece is very interesting. Clearly, when we bought that business, we said very clearly at that point in time that we were buying it for its risk capability. And actually, the other thing that we've done since then is we've demonstrated that we can do high loan-to-value risk transfer in the U.K. in order to dynamically manage the risk on the balance sheet. So we think it's the right time and we have the right opportunities to take advantage of it.

我認為肯辛頓的作品非常有趣。顯然，當我們購買該業務時，我們當時非常明確地表示，我們購買它是因為它的風險能力。實際上，從那時起我們所做的另一件事是我們已經證明我們可以在英國進行高貸款價值風險轉移，以便動態管理資產負債表上的風險。所以我們認為現在是正確的時機，我們有正確的機會來利用它。

Dan, do you want to pick up CRE?

丹，你想接 CRE 嗎？

Yes. So we've long had a very conservative approach to commercial real estate. So our exposure is GBP 15.8 billion. So it's relatively modest. So we're really not at the front line of the evolving situation in this market given that it's whole lending footprint. The LTVs are low. So 49% LTV with no subset to greater than 57% and about 11% of it is in offices. So again, relatively modest. The other point I'd probably make is we do have SFT protection on a portion of this book as well, which further helps the prudence on it.

是的。因此，我們長期以來對商業房地產採取非常保守的態度。因此我們的風險敞口為 158 億英鎊。所以說還是比較溫和的。因此，考慮到整個貸款足跡，我們實際上並沒有處於這個市場不斷變化的情況的最前線。 LTV 較低。因此，49% 的 LTV（不超過 57%），其中約 11% 位於辦公室。再說一次，相對溫和。我可能想說的另一點是，我們確實對本書的一部分進行了 SFT 保護，這進一步有助於謹慎行事。

Thanks, Dan. I think the only other thing I'd highlight is about 40% of the book is in the U.S. and about 60% outside. And obviously, the U.S. and offices are the points of greater investor focus at the moment. But we feel both as an LTV matter, but also in terms of being just very diversified across counterparties and sectors that we're in a good risk position. And as I highlighted this morning, as we grow more in U.K. corporates, we will not be undoing dispositioning on commercial real estate. It's based firmly in place. Thank you. And I think you have one more on supply.

謝謝，丹。我想我唯一要強調的另一件事是，這本書的大約 40% 是在美國，大約 60% 是在國外。顯然，美國和辦事處是目前投資者更關注的焦點。但我們認為，不僅從生命週期價值的角度來考慮，而且從交易對手和產業的多元化角度來看，我們處於良好的風險地位。正如我今天早上所強調的那樣，隨著我們在英國企業的發展越來越多，我們不會取消對商業房地產的處置。它的基礎牢固。謝謝。我想你們還有一份供應。

Yes, just on longer-term supply.

是的，只是長期供應。

Yes, longer term supply. Yes. I mean most of the public market issuance that we do is for capital and MREL purposes. And so we would expect that to be actually broadly similar going forward. Although the Investment Bank will be growing -- will be shrinking as a proportion, it will be relatively stable overall. So I don't think that should materially impact the funding position. Clearly, we would expect to see a bit of funding consumption in U.K. But clearly, they start with a very strong liquidity position and a very high level of deposits.

是的，長期供應。是的。我的意思是，我們所做的大部分公開市場發行都是為了資本和 MREL 目的。因此，我們預計未來情況實際上會大致相似。儘管投資銀行業務將會成長—所佔比重將會縮小，但總體而言將相對穩定。因此，我認為這不會對融資狀況產生重大影響。顯然，我們預計英國會出現一些資金消耗，但顯然，他們一開始就擁有非常強勁的流動性部位和非常高的存款水準。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The next question comes from Robert Smalley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅伯特‧史莫利。

Before I start with questions, 2 things. First, thank you very much for the structural heads chalk talk a little while ago. It was very informative. Secondly, my line went a little bit terrible when you talked about Tier 2 issuance, if you could repeat those comments, that would be great.

在我開始提問之前，有兩件事。首先，非常感謝您剛才的結構負責人粉筆演講。這是非常有用的。其次，當你談到二級發行時，我的台詞有點糟糕，如果你能重複這些評論，那就太好了。

In terms of questions, and I guess, I'm following up on fall with my first, if we're going to see a prolonged period of stagflation in the U.K., where do you think it manifests itself in the economy? And how is that reflected in your portfolio and your loan loss provisioning and migration from stage 1 to stage 2, 2 to 3 as we go?

就問題而言，我想，我想在秋季之後提出第一個問題，如果我們將在英國看到長期的滯脹，您認為它會在經濟中體現在哪裡？這如何反映在您的投資組合、貸款損失撥備以及從第一階段到第二階段、從第二階段到第三階段的遷移？

Secondly, on Slide 17, you talked about the LCR, 78% cash. Is this an opportunity to increase profitability by investing at higher rates or is there a reason why you want to keep this in cash for longer? And then third, with respect to the U.S. portfolio -- card portfolio this morning or last night, Capital One announced it was acquiring Discover, making a very big competitors to your business. Can you talk about how you see that competitively? Does it make it harder? Or are there pieces you think are going to come off of the combined company that you could pick up that at least some other gaps where you see some opportunity?

其次，在幻燈片 17 上，您談到了 LCR，78% 現金。這是一個透過更高利率投資來提高獲利能力的機會，還是您希望將現金保留更長時間的原因？第三，關於美國的投資組合——卡投資組合，今天早上或昨晚，第一資本宣布將收購 Discover，成為你的業務的一個非常大的競爭對手。您能談談您對競爭的看法嗎？這會讓事情變得更難嗎？或者您認為合併後的公司中是否有一些可以彌補的部分，至少可以彌補一些您認為有機會的其他差距？

Why don't I start the first question, and then I'll hand to Dan for any further comments and pick up the LCR and then I'll pick up the Capital One point and perhaps, Dan, you could reiterate your points on Tier 2 along the way, since Robert's line cut out. So just to give you some headlines in the macro assumptions that we have for the U.K. We are expecting the base rates will fall to around 4% by the end of this year and about 3.25% by the end of next. And we're expecting that unemployment will peak at around 4.8% in early '25.

為什麼我不開始第一個問題，然後我將交給 Dan 尋求進一步的評論，然後拿起 LCR，然後我將拿起 Capital One 點，也許 Dan，你可以重申你在 Tier 上的觀點2 一路上，羅伯特的隊伍被切斷了。因此，為了給您一些我們對英國宏觀假設的頭條新聞，我們預計基本利率將在今年年底降至 4% 左右，到明年年底降至 3.25% 左右。我們預計失業率將在 2025 年初達到 4.8% 左右的高峰。

I think that probably doesn't coincide with what we would describe as a stagflation environment, probably more stable than we've seen actually across the U.K. And given where we start from in our asset book, as I said before, both in terms of their risk positioning and the quantum of lending that we have. It gives us confidence that we can stay within the low loss ratios that we've called out for the U.K. on a longer-term basis, which is around 35 basis points. Dan, would you like to pick up the LCR?

我認為這可能與我們所描述的滯脹環境並不相符，滯脹環境可能比我們在英國實際看到的更穩定，而且考慮到我們從資產賬簿中開始，正如我之前所說，無論是在他們的風險定位和我們擁有的貸款數量。這讓我們有信心，我們可以長期將英國的損失率維持在 35 個基點左右的低損失率之內。 Dan，你想拿一下 LCR 嗎？

Yes. So actually, this cash position is quite consistent with where we've been in the past, Robert. It's -- we've run a deliberately conservative and prudent position here. And we look at the portfolio, particularly through a stress test lens. And clearly, if we're running asset -- either assets risk or outright rate risk and liquidity pool that will have an impact on our capital consumption through a stress test.

是的。事實上，羅伯特，這種現金狀況與我們過去的情況非常一致。我們在這裡採取了刻意保守和審慎的立場。我們會審視投資組合，特別是透過壓力測試鏡頭。顯然，如果我們正在運行資產——無論是資產風險還是直接利率風險和流動性池，都會透過壓力測試對我們的資本消耗產生影響。

So I think it's prudent to maintain a high cash balance in the liquidity pool. Your comment on -- your question on Tier 2. I think really, the message we were trying to give there was that we will be active in Tier 2, but relatively modest, but we're not guiding to a specific number.

因此我認為在流動性池中保持較高的現金餘額是謹慎的做法。您對第二級問題的評論。我認為，我們確實試圖傳達的訊息是，我們將積極參與第二級，但相對溫和，但我們沒有指導具體數字。

And just your final question, Robert. Yes, we noted that sort of late U.K. time and overnight. I mean the way we see it is it really sort of highlights to us the commercial attractiveness not just of the cards business in the U.S., but also the ability to sort of control payments and control payment rails. And it's clearly -- we've got more to hear about this deal, but that's how we interpret it from the outside. And we feel the same.

這是你的最後一個問題，羅伯特。是的，我們注意到英國時間較晚和過夜。我的意思是，我們認為它確實凸顯了我們的商業吸引力，不僅是美國信用卡業務的商業吸引力，而且還凸顯了控制支付和控制支付軌道的能力。很明顯，我們對這筆交易有更多了解，但這就是我們從外部解讀它的方式。我們也有同樣的感覺。

We think we've got an attractive opportunity, both in the U.K. and in the U.S. As related to a particular point on relative competitiveness in the U.S., we're very focused on improving the returns of the business that we already have. It performs extremely well. It's very focused. It's only a partner asset business. And so for those partners, it's not just about pricing, it's about the relationship and the service that you can provide to what is ultimately their customers, you carry their brand, and that's very important.

我們認為我們在英國和美國都有一個有吸引力的機會。就美國相對競爭力的一個特定點而言，我們非常注重提高我們已有業務的回報。它的性能非常好。是非常專注的。這只是合作夥伴資產業務。因此，對於這些合作夥伴來說，這不僅僅是定價的問題，還涉及您可以向最終客戶提供的關係和服務，您擁有他們的品牌，這非常重要。

So we think we're quite uniquely placed within the U.S. market in that we don't compete with our partners in the customer's wallet, and we think that's important to them. So we'll remain interested in what will come out over the next few days, but confident in the decisions that we've made around the U.S. and indeed the U.K. business.

因此，我們認為我們在美國市場的地位非常獨特，因為我們不會在客戶的錢包上與我們的合作夥伴競爭，我們認為這對他們來說很重要。因此，我們仍將對未來幾天的結果感興趣，但對我們在美國乃至英國業務方面所做的決定充滿信心。

Next question comes from Daniel Crowe from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的丹尼爾·克羅。

Just coming back on the Tier 2 issuance. Obviously, you haven't filled your book that you could fill and you have excess AT1 which helps on leverage. I'm just wondering, 3x, I know you don't want to give an exact figure, but would you assume that you will head back towards filling the Tier 2 bucket completely as you reduce your AT1 requirement? And then this morning, I also appear to have Rob's problem. Just as you're answering on the U.K. review on motor. I know it's not a major part, but could you just give me what was roughly your market share before you stopped lending into that pre-2019?

剛剛回到二級發行。顯然，您還沒有填寫您可以填寫的帳簿，並且您有多餘的 AT1，這有助於槓桿作用。我只是想知道，3x，我知道您不想給出確切的數字，但是您是否會認為，當您減少 AT1 要求時，您會完全填充第 2 層桶？今天早上，我似乎也遇到了羅布的問題。正如您在回答英國汽車評論時一樣。我知道這不是主要部分，但您能否告訴我在您停止向 2019 年前的貸款之前，您的市場份額大致是多少？

Yes, sure. Thank you, Daniel. Dan, why don't you pick up the first question, then I'll pick up.

是的，當然。謝謝你，丹尼爾。丹，為什麼不先回答第一個問題，然後我來回答。

So Daniel, no radical change in our approach to AT1 or Tier 2 mix. I mean, we still view that there's a lot of value in selling up that total capital bucket with AT1. We think it's cost-effective, given the leverage benefit that we get, given the returns that we can earn on liquid deployment of leveraged balance sheet. So no material change. We're certainly not going to look to fill up that Tier 2 bucket.

所以丹尼爾，我們的 AT1 或 Tier 2 混合方法並沒有發生根本性的改變。我的意思是，我們仍然認為出售 AT1 的總資本具有很大的價值。考慮到我們獲得的槓桿效益，考慮到我們透過槓桿資產負債表的流動性部署可以獲得的回報，我們認為這是具有成本效益的。所以沒有實質改變。我們當然不會尋求填補第二級的桶子。

But the point on being a negative issuer was we think we can run slightly lower than we have done recently. We've been sort of 3.9% of AT1 as a proportion of RWA, so really at the upper end of where we operated. So we'll run a little bit less than that, but no fundamental change to the strategy.

但作為負面發行人的一點是，我們認為我們的運行速度可以略低於最近的水平。我們的 RWA 比例約為 AT1 的 3.9%，因此確實處於我們營運水準的上限。因此，我們的運行量會比這個少一點，但策略不會發生根本性的改變。

And just on your final question, Daniel, I mean it varies by year, but I would characterize it as consistently low single digits across the years in which we were active in the market. And of course, we fully exited in around the middle of 2019. So that's the message you missed this morning. But it looks like there are no further questions in the queue. I'm just going to check that with the operator.

丹尼爾，關於你的最後一個問題，我的意思是它每年都會有所不同，但我將其描述為在我們活躍於市場的這些年裡，它一直處於低個位數。當然，我們在 2019 年中期左右完全退出。這就是您今天早上錯過的資訊。但隊列中似乎沒有其他問題了。我只是要跟接線員核實一下。

We have no further questions.

我們沒有其他問題了。

Okay. Thank you. So everybody, thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you for your continued interest in Barclays. We really look forward to seeing many of you on road over the few -- the next few weeks. And until then, take care. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。非常感謝大家今天加入我們。感謝您對巴克萊銀行的持續關注。我們非常期待在接下來的幾週內在路上見到你們中的許多人。在那之前，要小心。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for joining. That concludes today's call.

感謝您的加入。今天的電話會議到此結束。