Barclays PLC (BCS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

It's good to see you all this year.

我很高興今年能見到你們。

Thank you for coming, and welcome to the -- our first -- our full year 2024 results and progress update presentation.

感謝您的到來，歡迎參加我們的第一次 2024 年全年業績和進度更新報告。

You can see the agenda for the morning on this slide.

您可以在這張投影片上看到上午的議程。

We'll go straight into results before turning to review progress in the first year of our three-year plan.

在回顧三年計劃第一年的進展之前，我們先直接討論結果。

And as usual, there will be an opportunity for those in the room to ask questions at the end.

和往常一樣，會議結束時在場的人員將有機會提問。

Note, we also include an update on key operational developments for each of our five divisions as an annex to today's presentation.

請注意，我們還在今天的簡報中附上了五個部門各自主要營運發展的最新情況。

We won't talk to these slides but have included them in the spirit of transparency and to help you understand how we are delivering our plan.

我們不會談論這些幻燈片，但本著透明的精神，我們還是將它們包括在內，以幫助您了解我們如何實施我們的計劃。

So let me start with some performance highlights before handing over to Anna to take you through the financials.

因此，讓我先介紹一些業績亮點，然後再交給安娜來向您介紹財務狀況。

At our investor update last February, we set out a three-year plan to deliver a better run, more strongly performing and higher returning Barclays.

在去年二月的投資者更新中，我們制定了一項三年計劃，以實現巴克萊銀行更好的營運、更強勁的表現和更高的回報。

I'm encouraged by the progress which we have made during the first year.

我們在第一年所取得的進展令我感到鼓舞。

We are executing the plan in a disciplined way and have achieved all of our financial targets for 2024.

我們正在以嚴謹的方式執行該計劃，並已實現 2024 年的所有財務目標。

And we are on track to achieve our 2026 targets.

我們正在穩步實現 2026 年的目標。

Last year, we delivered a return on tangible equity of 10.5%, in line with our target greater than 10%.

去年，我們實現的有形股本回報率為 10.5%，符合我們超過 10% 的目標。

We also announced GBP3 billion of capital distributions, an important step towards our target to distribute at least GBP10 billion to shareholders by 2026.

我們還宣布了 30 億英鎊的資本分配，這是朝著 2026 年向股東分配至少 100 億英鎊的目標邁出的重要一步。

This includes GBP1.2 billion of dividends, enabling a 5% increase in our dividends per share to 8.4p. And also GBP1.75 billion in buybacks, GBP1 billion of which was announced today, and which we expect to initiate in the coming days.

其中包括12億英鎊的股息，使我們的每股股息增加 5% 至 8.4 便士。另外還有 17.5 億英鎊的回購計劃，其中 10 億英鎊已於今天宣布，我們預計將在未來幾天啟動。

We have made progress on deploying GBP30 billion of additional RWAs in our highest returning UK businesses, while keeping investment banking RWAs broadly stable.

我們在向英國回報率最高的企業部署 300 億英鎊額外風險加權資產方面取得了進展，同時保持投資銀行風險加權資產整體穩定。

This has resulted in the investment bank falling from 58% to 56% of the group's RWAs on its way to our 2026 target of circa 50%.

這導致投資銀行在集團風險加權資產中所佔比例從 58% 下降到 56%，而我們到 2026 年的目標則是達到 50% 左右。

And we remain well capitalized, ending the year with a CET1 ratio of 13.6%, within our range of 13% to 14%.

我們的資本仍然充足，年底的 CET1 比率為 13.6%，在我們的 13% 至 14% 範圍內。

We are improving the quality of our income and the stability and durability of our returns.

我們正在提高收入品質以及回報的穩定性和持久性。

And we are making progress towards our approximately GBP30 billion income target in 2026.

我們正在朝著 2026 年約 300 億英鎊的收入目標邁進。

Our top line grew by GBP1.4 billion or 6% year on year during 2024.

2024 年，我們的營業額年增 14 億英鎊，增幅為 6%。

And we achieved our NII targets for the group and for Barclays UK.

我們實現了集團和巴克萊英國的NII目標。

Our structural hedge provides a predictable and highly visible source of net interest income growth over several years.

我們的結構性避險提供了數年內可預測且高度可見的淨利息收入成長來源。

And our cost-to-income ratio for the full year '24 was 62%, better than our guidance of circa 63%.

我們24年全年的成本收入比為62%，高於我們預期的63%左右。

Our credit performance was also strong, particularly in the UK with a group loan loss rate of 46 basis points for the year, below our through-the-cycle 50 to 60 basis points target range.

我們的信貸表現也很強勁，特別是在英國，全年集團貸款損失率為 46 個基點，低於我們整個週期的 50 至 60 個基點的目標範圍。

Across Barclays, we are focused on execution.

在巴克萊銀行，我們注重執行。

We delivered GBP300 million of gross efficiency, cost efficiency savings in the fourth quarter, enabling us to achieve our GBP1 billion target for all of 2024.

我們在第四季度實現了 3 億英鎊的總效率和成本效率節約，使我們能夠實現 2024 年全年 10 億英鎊的目標。

We remain focused on improving our operational and financial performance across each of our five divisions.

我們將繼續致力於提高五個部門的營運和財務表現。

Anna will review our financial performance by division shortly, but let me first cover a few highlights.

安娜很快就會按部門審查我們的財務業績，但讓我先介紹幾個亮點。

Barclays UK delivered a return on tangible equity of 23% for the year.

巴克萊英國銀行全年有形資產報酬率為 23%。

And on the first of November, we completed the acquisition of Tesco Bank.

11月1日，我們完成了對樂購銀行（Tesco Bank）的收購。

Through this acquisition, we have gained a strategic relationship with the UK's largest retailer, supporting growth in our home market.

透過此次收購，我們與英國最大的零售商建立了策略關係，支持了我們本土市場的成長。

We plan to leverage our expertise in partnership credit cards developed over years, decades in the US to drive further growth and customer engagement.

我們計劃利用我們在美國多年、數十年來開發的合作信用卡方面的專業知識來推動進一步的成長和客戶參與。

Across the rest of Barclays UK, deposit balances have continued to stabilize and lending trends are encouraging, resulting in organic balance sheet growth in the fourth quarter.

巴克萊英國其他銀行的存款餘額持續穩定，貸款趨勢令人鼓舞，導致第四季度實現了有機資產負債表成長。

UK corporate and the Private Bank and Wealth Management divisions also contributed to the group's balance sheet expansion.

英國企業和私人銀行及財富管理部門也為該集團的資產負債表擴張做出了貢獻。

In the investment bank, our objective is to improve returns by regaining market share and improving our RWA productivity and cost efficiency.

在投資銀行，我們的目標是透過重新獲得市場份額以及提高 RWA 生產力和成本效率來提高回報。

I'm broadly satisfied with how we have fared against these metrics.

對於我們在這些指標上的表現，我大致上感到滿意。

And of course, I expect further significant progress in each of the next two years in order to deliver our targets.

當然，我希望在未來兩年內每年都取得更大的進展，以實現我們的目標。

The 8.5% RoTE for the Investment Bank in 2024 is up 1.5% year on year, and it's a good step on our journey to deliver returns in line with the group by 2026.

2024 年投資銀行的 RoTE 為 8.5%，年成長 1.5%，這是我們在 2026 年實現與集團一致回報的旅程上邁出的良好一步。

And we expect the Investment Bank to deliver further progress on RoTE in the year ahead.

我們預計投資銀行將在未來一年在股權回報率方面取得進一步進展。

Returns in the US Consumer Bank improved to 9% from 4% as impairment charges normalized as expected and as we proactively improved our operational performance.

由於減損費用按預期正常化以及我們積極改善營運業績，美國消費銀行的回報率從 4% 提高到 9%。

We've also made good progress to simplify the bank by divesting the nonstrategic businesses that we outlined at our investor update.

透過剝離在投資者更新中概述的非策略性業務，我們在簡化銀行方面也取得了良好進展。

This included the Italian mortgage portfolios in 2024 and the German consumer finance business completed last month.

其中包括2024年的義大利抵押貸款組合和上個月完成的德國消費金融業務。

Before I hand over to Anna, I would like to make two broad points.

在將發言權交給安娜之前，我想先談兩點。

The first is about the composition and quality of our businesses and of our results.

第一個是關於我們業務和業績的組成和品質。

As I hope you see in our 2024 outcomes and in our 2025 outlook, we are aiming to construct a bank with a good mix of businesses, which performed well individually and collectively.

我希望您在我們的 2024 年成果和 2025 年展望中看到，我們的目標是建立一家業務組合良好的銀行，無論是單獨表現還是整體表現都很好。

We aim to achieve a healthy balance between consumer and wholesale activities, a sound revenue weighting among fees, interest, and transactions and the geographical mix, which takes advantage of the full scope of our presence in the UK, the depth and breadth of our business in the US, and from both those locations, bridges to the important financial centers of the world.

我們的目標是在消費者活動和批發活動之間實現健康的平衡，在費用、利息、交易和地理組合之間實現合理的收入權重，從而充分利用我們在英國的業務範圍、在美國業務的深度和廣度，並從這兩個地方架起通往世界重要金融中心的橋樑。

Through this, we aim to deliver robust and reliable performance across interest rate and credit cycles.

透過這種方式，我們的目標是在整個利率和信貸週期中提供強勁可靠的表現。

That is the objective of the business strategy, which we presented last year and which we continue to prosecute.

這就是我們去年提出的、並將繼續執行的商業策略的目標。

My second broad point is that while Anna and I have the honor to present our results, this performance has been generated by over 90,000 colleagues at Barclays.

我的第二個觀點是，雖然安娜和我很榮幸能夠展示我們的業績，但這項成績是巴克萊銀行 90,000 多名同事共同努力的成果。

They have helped to implement the strategy so far, and they are core to our achieving success over the next two years.

他們迄今已幫助我們實施了這項策略，他們也是我們在未來兩年成功的核心。

And to further align their efforts with our shareholders as interest, our colleagues should be able to participate in the ultimate outcome of their work, which is the change in our share price.

為了進一步使他們的努力與股東的利益保持一致，我們的同事應該能夠參與他們工作的最終成果，也就是我們股價的變化。

Therefore, we are announcing today a share grant of approximately GBP500 million each for the vast majority of our colleagues, essentially, all empwloyees across all locations outside of managing directors and what we call material risk takers.

因此，我們今天宣布向我們絕大多數同事（基本上是董事總經理和我們所謂的重大風險承擔者以外的所有地點的所有員工）每人授予約 5 億英鎊的股票。

I have long felt that this kind of alignment between shareholders and employees through broad-based equity participation, strengthens business outcomes.

我一直認為，透過廣泛的股權參與，股東和員工之間建立這種協調一致的做法，有利於增強業務成果。

In the UK, sadly, broad-based equity ownership has been declining.

不幸的是，在英國，廣泛的股權所有權一直在下降。

This represents our effort towards arresting and correcting this trend.

這代表了我們為阻止和糾正這一趨勢所做的努力。

So with that, I'll hand over to Anna.

因此，我將把麥克風交給安娜。

Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Venkat，大家早安。

Slide 6 summarizes our financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full year.

投影片 6 總結了我們第四季和全年的財務亮點。

Profit before tax was GBP8.1 billion and was up 24%.

稅前利潤為81億英鎊，成長24%。

This included a Q4 profit before tax of GBP1.7 billion, up from GBP0.1 billion.

其中第四季稅前利潤為 17 億英鎊，高於 1 億英鎊。

Before going into the detail, as always, I would note that our results are affected by FX rates.

在深入討論細節之前，像往常一樣，我想指出我們的結果受到外匯匯率的影響。

The year-on-year performance in Q4 was impacted by a weaker US dollars, which decreased our reported income, costs, and impairments.

第四季的年比業績受到美元走弱的影響，導致我們報告的收入、成本和減損減少。

Conversely, the dollar strengthened from Q3 to Q4.

相反，美元從第三季到第四季走強。

And I'll call out these effects where appropriate.

我會在適當的地方指出這些影響。

Group's statutory RoTE was 10.5% for 2024 versus our target of greater than 10%.

2024 年，集團法定股權回報率為 10.5%，而我們的目標是超過 10%。

This was against the previous year's RoTE of 9% which was impacted by GBP0.9 billion of structural cost actions in Q4.

相較之下，去年的 RoTE 為 9%，受到第四季 9 億英鎊結構性成本行動的影響。

Much of the improvement in RoTE reflected higher income, particularly in the investment bank, Barclays UK, and Private Bank and Wealth Management.

股權報酬率的改善在很大程度上反映了收入的提高，尤其是投資銀行、巴克萊英國以及私人銀行和財富管理部門。

This improvement occurred even as we grew tangible book value per share by 26p during the year to 357p.

即使我們年內將每股有形帳面價值增加了 26 便士，達到 357 便士，但仍取得了這種改善。

Throughout the year, as you know, I've been looking for four things in our performance.

正如你所知，這一年來，我一直在尋找我們表現中的四個面向。

Income stability, cost discipline and progress on efficiency savings, credit performance, and a robust capital position.

收入穩定、成本紀律、效率節約、信貸表現和穩健的資本狀況。

We delivered on all.

我們完成了所有任務。

I'll now cover these in more detail, starting with income on slide 8.

我現在將更詳細地介紹這些內容，從第 8 張投影片上的收入開始。

Our income growth continues to be supported by the structural hedge and is now complemented by balance sheet growth.

我們的收入成長持續受到結構性避險的支持，現在又得到資產負債表成長的補充。

Income in the Investment Bank, while seasonally lower in Q4 benefited from the execution of our initiatives to improve productivity and an increase in the industry wallet.

投資銀行的收入雖然第四季季節性下降，但這得益於我們實施的提高生產力的措施以及產業資金的增加。

Together, this resulted in a 6% increase in total group income for the year to GBP26.8 billion.

總體而言，這使得全年集團總收入成長 6%，達到 268 億英鎊。

Excluding FX, income was up 7% year on year.

除去外匯，營收年增7%。

More stable income streams from retail, corporate, and financing grew 3% year-on-year and together contributed 74% of group income.

來自零售、企業及融資等更穩定的收入來源年增3%，合計貢獻了集團收入的74%。

Turning to NII.

轉向 NII。

Our group net interest income increased for the third consecutive year by 3% in FY24 to GBP11.3 billion.

我們集團淨利息收入在24財年連續第三年成長3%，達到113億英鎊。

Excluding Tesco, group NII increased 2% to GBP11.2 billion.

不包括樂購 (Tesco)，集團 NII 成長 2%，達到 112 億英鎊。

And within this, Barclays UK rose 1% to GBP6.5 billion.

其中，巴克萊英國上漲1%，至65億英鎊。

Both were in line with our guidance at Q3 and more favorable than our February guidance.

兩項數據均符合我們第三季的預期，且比我們二月的預期更為有利。

This reflected the benefit of higher-than-expected interest rates and faster deposit stabilization on our NII, including as a result of higher reinvestment income from the structural hedge.

這反映了高於預期的利率和更快的存款穩定對我們的NII的好處，包括結構性對沖帶來的更高的再投資收入。

The structural hedge is designed to reduce income volatility and manage interest rate risk.

結構性對沖旨在降低收入波動和管理利率風險。

The high proportion of balances hedged reduces our sensitivity to the short-term effect of rate cuts.

高比例的對沖餘額降低了我們對降息短期影響的敏感度。

NII from the hedge increased GBP1.1 billion during the year to GBP4.7 billion.

年內對沖產生的NII增加了11億英鎊，達到47億英鎊。

Income provided by the hedge is significant and predictable.

對沖提供的收入是可觀的且可預測的。

We've now locked in GBP9.1 billion of gross income over the next two years up from GBP7.8 billion at Q3 and GBP4.8 billion a year ago.

我們目前已鎖定未來兩年 91 億英鎊的總收入，高於第三季的 78 億英鎊和一年前 48 億英鎊。

This income will continue to build as we reinvest maturing assets at higher yields.

隨著我們以更高的收益率再投資到期資產，此項收入將繼續增加。

As consumer deposit behavior has stabilized, the average duration of the hedge has increased modestly to around three years.

隨著消費者存款行為趨於穩定，避險的平均期限小幅增加至三年左右。

Moving on to costs.

繼續討論成本。

We achieved a cost-income ratio of 62% for the year below our circa 63% target.

我們全年的成本收入比達到了 62%，低於我們約 63% 的目標。

This included a GBP90 million motor finance provision in Q4.

其中包括第四季9000萬英鎊的汽車融資撥備。

In line with our plan, we delivered GBP1 billion of gross efficiency savings during the year, including GBP0.3 billion during Q4.

按照我們的計劃，我們今年實現了 10 億英鎊的總效率節約，其中第四季為 3 億英鎊。

These savings created capacity for investments and business growth.

這些儲蓄為投資和業務成長創造了能力。

We also took proactive steps to accelerate structural cost actions in a number of our divisions given the strong performance in the year, whilst importantly, still delivering on our cost income ratio target.

鑑於今年的強勁表現，我們也採取了積極措施，加快了多個部門的結構性成本行動，同時重要的是，我們仍在實現成本收入比目標。

The costs of these measures, which will support our future returns and efficiency came to GBP110 million in the quarter, or GBP273 million in total for 2024, well within our normal annual range.

這些措施的成本將支持我們未來的回報和效率，本季達到 1.1 億英鎊，2024 年總計達到 2.73 億英鎊，遠低於我們的正常年度範圍。

Turning now to impairment.

現在來談談損害。

The Q4 -- the FY24 impairment charge of GBP2 billion equated to a loan loss rate of 46 basis points.

第四季－24 財年的減損費用為 20 億英鎊，相當於貸款損失率為 46 個基點。

This included a day one charge for Tesco Bank of GBP209 million where accounting rules require balances to be brought on to our books at Stage 1.

其中包括第一天向樂購銀行收取的 2.09 億英鎊費用，因為會計規則要求在第一階段將餘額記入我們的帳簿。

The UK credit picture remains benign with low and stable delinquencies in our consumer books and wholesale loan loss rates below our through-the-cycle expectations.

英國信貸狀況依然良好，消費者貸款拖欠率較低且穩定，批發貸款損失率低於我們的周期預期。

Specifically, the Barclays UK charge was GBP365 million, including day one effects from Tesco, resulting in a loan loss rate of 16 basis points for 2024.

具體來說，巴克萊英國的費用為 3.65 億英鎊，其中包括樂購第一天的影響，導致 2024 年的貸款損失率為 16 個基點。

The US Consumer Bank impairment charge was down 10% year on year at GBP1.3 billion.

美國消費銀行減損支出年減 10% 至 13 億英鎊。

Delinquencies in UCSB are developing in line with our expectations, with 30- and 90-day delinquencies stable.

加州大學聖塔芭芭拉分校的拖欠情況符合我們的預期，30 天和 90 天的拖欠情況保持穩定。

As guided, impairment charges in this business were lower in '24 versus the prior year, and H2 was also lower than H1.

根據指引，24年該業務的減損費用低於上年，下半年也低於上半年。

Coverage ratios remained strong.

覆蓋率依然強勁。

Looking ahead, we expect the loan loss rate in FY25 to be similar to '24.

展望未來，我們預計25財年的貸款損失率將與24財年相似。

This includes the lagged effect of hard delinquencies in the past 12 to 18 months and the anticipated day one effect of bringing the General Motors partnership on board in Q3 '25.

這包括過去 12 至 18 個月內嚴重拖欠的滯後效應，以及 25 年第三季與通用汽車合作後預期的第一天效應。

I would also note that loan loss rates tend to be seasonally higher in Q1 given holiday spend in Q4.

我還要指出的是，由於第四季的假期支出，第一季的貸款損失率往往會季節性上升。

Turning now to our UK growth.

現在來談談我們英國的成長。

This slide summarizes key aspects of our organic growth.

這張投影片總結了我們有機成長的關鍵面向。

Gross mortgage lending strengthened throughout the year, supported by a more active property market and higher loan-to-value lending. 15% of our mortgage lending was to higher LTV borrowers, up from 9% in 2023.

受房地產市場更活躍及貸款價值比上升的推動，全年抵押貸款總額有所增強。我們的抵押貸款中有 15% 是提供給 LTV 較高的借款人，高於 2023 年的 9%。

We acquired 1 million new Barclaycard customers, up 58% year on year as part of our strategy to regain market share in unsecured lending.

這是我們重新奪回無擔保貸款市場份額的策略的一部分，我們新增了 100 萬巴克萊信用卡客戶，年增 58%。

And in the corporate bank, we deployed around GBP3 billion of RWAs by extending client lending facilities to support future lending growth.

在企業銀行方面，我們透過擴大客戶貸款規模，部署了約 30 億英鎊的風險加權資產，以支持未來的貸款成長。

Clients have now started to draw down on these facilities reflected in around GBP1 billion of net UK corporate loan growth in Q4.

客戶現在已經開始使用這些貸款，這反映在第四季度英國企業貸款淨增長約 10 億英鎊。

Turning now to Barclays UK.

現在轉向英國巴克萊銀行。

You can see financial highlights on slide 15, but I will talk to slide 16.

您可以在第 15 張投影片上看到財務亮點，但我將討論第 16 張投影片。

The acquisition of Tesco Bank in November complicates comparisons for Q4.

11 月對 Tesco Bank 的收購使得第四季度的比較變得複雜。

So let me start by unpacking the moving parts.

因此，讓我先來拆開活動部件。

First, there was a gain on acquisition of GBP0.6 billion and a day one impairment charge of GBP0.2 billion.

首先，收購收益為 6 億英鎊，第一天減損費用為 2 億英鎊。

Together, these created a one-off benefit to Barclays UK statutory RoTE, which was 28% in the quarter.

這些因素共同為巴克萊英國法定股東權益創造了一次性收益，本季收益為 28%。

Excluding these day one effect, Barclays UK RoTE was 19.1%.

除去這些第一天的影響，巴克萊英國的 RoTE 為 19.1%。

Second, comparisons are affected by the inclusion of Tesco Bank's underlying earnings for two months since November.

其次，由於納入了樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank) 自 11 月以來兩個月的基本盈利，因此比較結果會受到影響。

This included GBP101 million of NII and around GBP60 million of costs in line with our guidance for GBP30 million run rate cost per month.

其中包括 1.01 億英鎊的 NII 和約 6,000 萬英鎊的成本，符合我們每月 3,000 萬英鎊的營運成本指引。

We continue to expect circa GBP400 million of NII from Tesco in 2024 -- 2025.

我們繼續預計 2024 年至 2025 年 Tesco 的 NII 收入將達到約 4 億英鎊。

Whilst the Q4 run rate exceeded this level, we expect this to normalize in future quarters.

雖然第四季度的運行率超過了這一水平，但我們預計未來幾季這一水平將恢復正常。

The inclusion of higher NIM balances from Tesco also explains around 11 of the 19 basis points increase in BUK NIM versus Q3.

納入樂購 (Tesco) 更高的 NIM 餘額也解釋了 BUK NIM 較第三季增加 19 個基點中的約 11 個基點。

Excluding Tesco Bank, Barclays NII increased GBP48 million QoQ.

不包括樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank)，巴克萊銀行 NII 環比增加了 4,800 萬英鎊。

This reflected continued structural hedge momentum and a tailwind from balance sheet growth partially offset by product repricing lags.

這反映了持續的結構性對沖勢頭和資產負債表增長帶來的順風，但被產品重新定價滯後部分抵消。

Non-NII was GBP244 million, the decline versus Q3 reflects the one-off effect of the Q4 securitization that we previously highlighted.

非NII為2.44億英鎊，與第三季相比的下降反映了我們先前強調的第四季證券化的一次性影響。

Going forward, we continue to expect a run rate above GBP250 million per quarter.

展望未來，我們預計每季的營業額將持續超過 2.5 億英鎊。

Q4 costs -- total costs increased by GBP209 million versus Q3 to GBP1.2 billion.

第四季成本－總成本較第三季增加 2.09 億英鎊，達到 12 億英鎊。

This included around GBP60 million for Tesco Bank and a GBP36 million bank levy.

其中包括向樂購銀行（Tesco Bank）徵收約 6,000 萬英鎊的稅款以及徵收 3,600 萬英鎊的銀行稅。

The remaining increase reflected investment to support growth and structural cost actions.

剩餘的成長反映了支持成長和結構性成本行動的投資。

Moving on to the Barclays UK balance sheet.

繼續看巴克萊英國資產負債表。

In Q4, both loans and deposits grew organically.

第四季度，貸款和存款均實現有機成長。

The acquisition of Tesco Bank added a further GBP8 billion of loans and GBP7 billion of deposits.

收購樂購銀行（Tesco Bank）又增加了80億英鎊的貸款和70億英鎊的存款。

On an organic basis, deposit balances grew by circa GBP1 billion.

從有機基礎來看，存款餘額增加了約 10 億英鎊。

Flows into savings accounts and current accounts were particularly strong ahead of the UK budget in October and customers have so far retained this liquidity.

在英國十月預算公佈之前，儲蓄帳戶和活期帳戶的資金流入尤為強勁，客戶迄今仍保留了這種流動性。

Looking ahead, tax payments during Q1 typically lead to a seasonal reduction in customer deposit balances.

展望未來，第一季的納稅通常會導致客戶存款餘額的季節性減少。

And as I discussed earlier, stronger activity in mortgages and Barclaycard led to a GBP1 billion increase in Q4 lending before the effect of our securitization in the quarter.

正如我之前所討論的，抵押貸款和巴克萊信用卡的強勁活動導致第四季度貸款增加了 10 億英鎊，這還不包括我們本季證券化的影響。

Moving on to the UK Corporate Bank.

轉向英國公司銀行。

UK Corporate Bank delivered a Q4 RoTE of 12.3%.

英國企業銀行第四季的資產負債比率為 12.3%。

NII was up 31% year on year, reflecting deposit income growth and the non-repeat of adverse liquidity pool income in the prior year.

NII 年成長 31%，反映出存款收入成長以及去年流動性池收入未出現負成長。

Non-NII was down 9% year on year and broadly flat to Q3.

非國家資訊基礎設施投資年減 9%，與第三季基本持平。

Whilst this line can be volatile, we expect investments in our digital and lending propositions to drive non-NII growth over time.

儘管這條線可能會有波動，但我們預計對我們的數位和貸款主張的投資將隨著時間的推移推動非 NII 成長。

Investments to support this growth and to drive greater efficiency led to a 10% year on year increase in costs, excluding the structural cost actions we took in Q4 '23.

為支持這一成長和提高效率而進行的投資導致成本同比增長 10%，這還不包括我們在 23 年第四季採取的結構性成本行動。

And our full year loan loss rate of 29 basis points was within our through-the-cycle guidance of circa 35 basis points.

我們全年的貸款損失率為 29 個基點，符合我們整個週期的約 35 個基點的指導目標。

Turning now to Private Bank and Wealth Management.

現在談談私人銀行和財富管理。

Q4 RoTE was 23.9%.

Q4 的 RoTE 為 23.9%。

Client assets and liabilities grew GBP7 billion versus Q3 and GBP26 billion versus the prior year.

客戶資產和負債較第三季成長了 70 億英鎊，較上年同期成長了 260 億英鎊。

We also attracted net new assets under management of GBP0.7 billion in Q4 and GBP3.7 billion for the year.

我們也在第四季吸引了 7 億英鎊的淨新資產管理規模，全年吸引了 37 億英鎊的淨新資產管理規模。

This is a new metric that we will disclose going forward.

這是我們今後將揭露的一項新指標。

This growth in volumes as well as higher transactional activity led to a 12% year-on-year increase in income.

交易量的成長和交易活動的增加導致收入年增了 12%。

Excluding Q4 '23 structural cost actions, costs were up 15% year on year as we took further actions this quarter to optimize headcount and drive business growth.

除 23 年第四季的結構性成本行動外，成本年增 15%，因為我們本季採取了進一步行動來優化員工人數並推動業務成長。

As you heard at our deep dive in December, we will continue to prioritize investment in this business.

正如您在我們 12 月的深入研究中聽到的那樣，我們將繼續優先投資這項業務。

Turning now to the Investment Bank.

現在來談談投資銀行。

The Q4 RoTE was seasonally low at 3.4% with a full year RoTE of 8.5%, both ahead of the prior year.

第四季的股權報酬率為季節性低點 3.4%，全年股權報酬率為 8.5%，均高於去年同期。

Q4 total income was up 28% year on year, while total costs rose 11%, excluding the Q4 structural cost actions.

第四季總營收年增28%，不包括第四季結構性成本行動，總成本上漲11%。

This was the third consecutive quarter of positive draws.

這是連續第三個季度實現正成長。

Adjusted for FX, total income was up 31% year on year, and costs were up 12% year on year, excluding structural cost actions in the prior year.

經外匯調整後，總收入年增 31%，成本年增 12%（不包括上一年度的結構性成本行動）。

Part of the increase in our Q4 costs reflected actions we took to improve future efficiency.

我們第四季成本的增加部分反映了我們為提高未來效率所採取的行動。

Period-end RWAs of GBP199 billion were GBP5 billion higher versus Q3, with FX accounting for GBP6 billion of the increase.

期末風險加權資產為 1,990 億英鎊，較第三季增加 50 億英鎊，其中外匯佔增幅的 60 億英鎊。

Now looking at the Q4 income in more detail.

現在更詳細地看一下第四季的營收。

Using the US dollar figures as usual to help comparison to US peers, markets income was up 36% year on year.

像往常一樣使用美元數字來與美國同業進行比較，市場收入年增了 36%。

Macroeconomic conditions supported a 32% increase in FICC income driven by financing, credit, rates, and FX.

宏觀經濟條件支持 FICC 收入在融資、信貸、利率和外匯的推動下成長 32%。

Equities income was up 44%, aided by strong performance across cash, prime, and derivatives.

由於現金、主要證券和衍生性商品的強勁表現，股票收入上漲了 44%。

Investment banking fees rose 22%.

投資銀行費用上漲22%。

For FY24 as a whole, our share of banking fees increased by 30 basis points to 3.3%, but we have more work to do to build on this improvement.

就整個 24 財年而言，我們的銀行費用份額增加了 30 個基點，達到 3.3%，但我們還有很多工作要做才能在這項改進的基礎上再接再厲。

Within Q4, our ECM performance was strong, with income up 160% year on year.

在第四季度，我們的 ECM 表現強勁，營收年增 160%。

Advisory fees were also up 12% with good momentum and a robust pipeline headed into 2025.

由於發展勢頭良好且 2025 年前景廣闊，諮詢費也上漲了 12%。

Whilst DCM was up 10% year on year, our performance was mixed.

儘管 DCM 同比增長了 10%，但我們的表現好壞參半。

In leverage finance, we increased market share by 70 basis points to 4.7% in a strong market.

在槓桿融資方面，在強勁的市場中，我們的市佔率提高了 70 個基點，達到 4.7%。

This was offset by softer performance in investment grade, particularly in Q4, with a strong Asian wallet, which we did not participate in, given our limited presence in the region.

這被投資等級表現疲軟所抵消，特別是在第四季度，由於亞洲財力雄厚，但由於我們在該地區的業務有限，我們沒有參與其中。

In addition, we were less active in event financing in the quarter, and this represents an opportunity as we further improve our advisory capabilities.

此外，本季我們在活動融資方面的活躍度較低，這對我們進一步提高諮詢能力來說是一個機會。

Importantly, we saw progress in areas of the investment bank that inherently have more stable revenues.

重要的是，我們看到投資銀行在本質上具有更穩定收入的領域取得了進展。

Financing income was up 34% reflecting a strong increase in client balances and international corporate bank income was up 22%.

融資收入成長 34%，反映客戶餘額強勁成長，國際企業銀行收入成長 22%。

US deposit balances grew by circa 90% year on year, which we see as a lead indicator of income growth.

美國存款餘額年增約 90%，我們將其視為營收成長的領先指標。

US Consumer Bank RoTE was 11.2% in the quarter.

本季美國消費銀行的 RoTE 為 11.2%。

The improvement versus the prior year reflected lower impairment charges following the reserve build in H2 '23.

與前一年相比的改善反映了 23 年下半年準備金增加後減損費用的降低。

Income was down 1% year on year or up 1%, excluding FX.

營收年減 1%，若不包括外匯則成長 1%。

This reflected a $0.9 billion increase in card balances to GBP33.1 billion on a reported basis.

據報告，這反映出卡片餘額增加了 9 億美元，達到 331 億英鎊。

From Q3 to Q4, NII increased 5%, supported by seasonally stronger balances, which also grew 5%.

從第三季到第四季度，NII 成長了 5%，這得益於季節性強勁的餘額，也成長了 5%。

NIM rose 28 basis points partly reflecting the lagged benefit of our repricing actions earlier in the year.

淨利差上漲 28 個基點，部分反映了我們今年稍早重新定價行動的滯後效益。

The successful launch of our new tiered retail savings product in Q3 led to a 17% year on year growth in retail deposit funding with a $2 billion increase in Q4.

我們在第三季成功推出了新的分級零售儲蓄產品，帶動零售存款資金年增 17%，第四季增加了 20 億美元。

The proportion of core deposits rose 1% year on year to 64%, reflecting wholesale funding raised during Q4 to meet seasonal asset growth.

核心存款佔比年增 1% 至 64%，反映了第四季度為滿足季節性資產成長而籌集的批發融資。

As seasonal spending eases we should see a further increase in our share of funding from core deposits towards our target of 75% in 2026.

隨著季節性支出的減少，我們的核心存款資金份額將進一步增加，預計將達到 2026 年 75% 的目標。

Excluding Q4 2023 structural cost actions, total costs were up 8% as we continue to invest in the growth of the business, driving a cost-to-income ratio of 51%.

不包括 2023 年第四季的結構性成本行動，由於我們繼續投資於業務成長，總成本上漲了 8%，成本收入比達到 51%。

Moving to capital.

移師首都。

We ended the year with a CET1 ratio of 13.6%.

截至去年底，我們的 CET1 比率為 13.6%。

This included around 140 basis points of capital generation from profits, excluding the day one P&L benefit of the Tesco Bank acquisition.

其中包括從利潤中產生的約 140 個基點的資本，不包括樂購銀行收購第一天的損益。

We previously highlighted two inorganic transactions that would impact capital in the near term, both of which have now completed.

我們先前強調兩筆將在短期內影響資本的無機交易，這兩筆交易目前都已完成。

The first was the circa 20 basis points of capital consumption from the acquisition of Tesco Bank in Q4.

首先是第四季收購樂購銀行（Tesco Bank）帶來的約20個基點的資本消耗。

The second is the circa 10 basis points accretion from the sale of the German consumer finance business, which was completed last month and will benefit the CET1 ratio in Q1 '25.

第二是上個月完成的德國消費金融業務出售帶來的約 10 個基點的增值，並將使 25 年第一季的 CET1 比率受益。

The GBP1 billion share buyback we announced today will also lower the ratio by around 30 basis points in Q1.

我們今天宣布的 10 億英鎊股票回購也將使第一季的比率降低約 30 個基點。

Looking ahead, we maintain our guidance for between GBP19 billion and GBP26 billion of regulatory-driven RWA inflation.

展望未來，我們維持監管驅動的 RWA 通膨在 190 億英鎊至 260 億英鎊之間的預期。

The UK regulator's decision to postpone the implementation of Basel 3.1 to January 2027 may, however, alter the mix and phasing of this change.

然而，英國監管機構決定將巴塞爾協議 3.1 的實施推遲至 2027 年 1 月，可能會改變這項變化的組合和階段。

Adopting IRB in the US Consumer Bank is still expected to increase RWAs by circa GBP16 billion.

美國消費銀行採用 IRB 預計仍將使 RWA 增加約 160 億英鎊。

Whilst uncertainty around the size and the mix of the portfolio at the time of implementation has increased, this remains our best estimate for now.

雖然實施時投資組合的規模和組合的不確定性有所增加，但這仍然是我們目前的最佳估計。

In the meantime, there are a few changes in the regulatory landscape.

同時，監管格局也發生了一些變化。

Prior to implementing IRB for US cards, our Pillar 2A requirement will increase by 0.1% from Q1 2025.

在對美國卡片實施 IRB 之前，我們的第 2A 支柱要求將從 2025 年第一季起增加 0.1%。

We expect this Pillar 2A capital to be removed when the IRB model is implemented in 2026 or 2027, when this GBP16 billion RWA increase is reflected in Pillar 1.

我們預計，當 2026 年或 2027 年實施 IRB 模型時，第 2A 支柱資本將被取消，屆時這 160 億英鎊的 RWA 增加將反映在第 1 支柱中。

Consequently, our maximum distributable amount ratio or NDA is expected to rise to 12.2% from Q1 '25.

因此，我們的最大可分配金額比率或 NDA 預計將從 25 年第一季起上升至 12.2%。

We previously expected that this would reduce following the implementation of Basel 3 in January 2026, but this will now be delayed to January 2027.

我們之前預計，隨著 2026 年 1 月巴塞爾協議 3 的實施，這一數字將會減少，但現在這一數字將推遲到 2027 年 1 月。

Reflecting this, you should continue to expect us to operate towards the upper half of our 13% to 14% target CET1 range as we have been doing.

考慮到這一點，您應該繼續期待我們像一直以來那樣，朝著 13% 至 14% 的目標 CET1 範圍的上半部分發展。

Naturally, our distribution expectations remain unchanged.

當然，我們的分銷預期保持不變。

Turning now to recent RWA developments.

現在來談談 RWA 的最新發展。

RWAs increased GBP18 billion from Q3 to GBP358 billion.

風險加權資產較第三季增加了 180 億英鎊，達到 3,580 億英鎊。

Tesco Bank added GBP7 billion and a further GBP7 billion was driven by FX in the Investment Bank and the US Consumer Bank.

樂購銀行（Tesco Bank）增加了 70 億英鎊，另外 70 億英鎊則由投資銀行和美國消費者銀行的外匯業務推動。

As usual, a brief word on our overall capital and liquidity on slide 30.

像往常一樣，在第 30 張投影片上簡要介紹我們的整體資本和流動性。

We maintain a well-capitalized and liquid balance sheet with diverse sources of funding, and a significant excess of deposits over loans.

我們的資產負債表資本充足、流動性強，資金來源多元化，存款遠超過貸款。

TNAV per share increased by 6p in the quarter and by 26p during 2024 to 357p.

每股 TNAV 本季增加了 6 便士，2024 年增加了 26 便士，達到 357 便士。

Attributable profit added 6p per share during Q4, whilst our share buyback and other movements added 1p and 3p, respectively.

第四季每股可歸屬利潤增加了 6 便士，而我們的股票回購和其他措施分別增加了 1 便士和 3 便士。

These were partially offset by a more negative cash flow hedge reserve, which reduced TNAV by 4p per share.

這些損失被更多的負現金流對沖儲備部分抵消，導致每股 TNAV 降低 4 便士。

This is the fourth quarter in the 12-quarter plan we laid out in February.

這是我們二月制定的12個季度計劃中的第四季度。

Today, we are reiterating our group targets for 2026 and providing additional guidance for 2025, including a further improvement in group RoTE to around 11%.

今天，我們重申了 2026 年的集團目標，並為 2025 年提供了額外指導，包括將集團 RoTE 進一步提高到 11% 左右。

I'll come back to discuss the building blocks of this guidance in more detail with you.

我將回來與您更詳細地討論該指南的構成要素。

But first, I would like to hand back to Venkat to take you through some reflections on progress during the first year of our plan.

但首先，我想把話題轉回 Venkat，讓他帶大家回顧我們計畫第一年的進展。

Thank you, Anna.

謝謝你，安娜。

So almost a year ago today, we set three key priorities for Barclays by 2026, to improve our returns, to distribute more to shareholders, and to rebalance our RWAs.

因此，大約一年前，我們為巴克萊銀行設定了 2026 年前的三大主要優先事項，即提高回報、向股東分配更多利益以及重新平衡我們的風險加權資產。

We also set 2020 -- interim milestones for 2024, which we have delivered.

我們也設定了 2020 年到 2024 年的中期里程碑，並且已經實現。

Our plan was set on realistic assumptions, which, together with our diversified business model, allowed us effectively to navigate market, macro, and regulatory conditions throughout the year.

我們的計劃是基於現實的假設而製定的，再加上我們多元化的商業模式，使我們能夠有效地駕馭全年的市場、宏觀和監管條件。

So what were these?

那麼這些是什麼？

UK deposits have stabilized faster, and the investment banking wallet has been stronger than we expected.

英國存款穩定得更快，投資銀行的資金實力也比我們預期的強勁。

Fixed income, FICC, which is traditionally an area of strength for us, performed slightly weaker than we had expected in 2024, but our strong performance in equities where we have taken market share, partially compensated for this, rebalancing our overall markets business.

固定收益、FICC 是我們的傳統強項，但在 2024 年的表現略弱於我們的預期，但我們在佔據市場份額的股票領域的強勁表現部分彌補了這一點，重新平衡了我們的整體市場業務。

And the economic environment has been more supportive, with interest rates remaining higher alongside more benign unemployment and inflation in our main UK and US markets.

經濟環境也更有利，我們主要市場英國和美國的利率仍然保持在較高水平，失業率和通膨率也較為溫和。

Last year, I described the important reset of our financial performance and shareholder returns since 2021.

去年，我描述了自2021年以來我們的財務表現和股東回報的重要重置。

I also told you that this improvement was not sufficient and that our shareholder experience needed to be better.

我還告訴過你們，這種改進還不夠，我們的股東體驗需要更好。

We are making progress on our plan and we are generating growth.

我們的計劃正在不斷取得進展，並且正在實現成長。

Notably, we have achieved our fifth consecutive year of TNAV per share growth of 8% during 2024, and 7% annually since 2019.

值得注意的是，我們已連續第五年實現每股 TNAV 成長，2024 年成長率為 8%，自 2019 年以來每年成長率為 7%。

This positive outcome reflects improvements in our returns and growth of our earnings per share, including by 30% year on year during 2024 to the highest level in decade.

這一積極成果反映了我們的回報率和每股收益的提高，其中 2024 年同比增長 30%，達到十年來的最高水平。

This enabled a 5% increase in total distributions, including progressive growth in our dividend per share.

這使得總分配金額增加了 5%，包括每股股息的逐步成長。

For the group as a whole, we look to generate higher returns in two ways.

對於整個集團而言，我們希望透過兩種方式獲得更高的回報。

First, by allocating more capital to our higher returning UK businesses, which I'll come on to discuss; and second, by improving returns in the lower returning businesses, namely the investment bank and the US Consumer Bank.

首先，為英國回報率更高的企業分配更多資本，我將在後面討論這一點；其次，提高回報率較低的業務，即投資銀行和美國消費者銀行的回報率。

That was true last year when we set out our strategy, and it remains true today.

去年我們制定策略時就是這樣的，今天仍然如此。

We are making progress, including in target growth areas of the Investment Bank, but further improvements are needed to achieve our RoTE target of greater than 12%.

我們正在取得進展，包括在投資銀行的目標成長領域，但還需要進一步改進才能實現超過 12% 的 RoTE 目標。

And in the US Consumer Bank, too, we remain focused on rebuilding returns towards the mid-teens RoTE beyond 2026.

在美國消費銀行，我們也將持續致力於在 2026 年以後重建中段報酬率。

A reduction of impairments in line with our expectations as well as other operational improvements enabled a 9% RoTE in 2024 versus 4% in 2023.

根據我們的預期減少減損以及其他營運改善使 2024 年的 RoTE 達到 9%，而 2023 年為 4%。

Let me now discuss the allocation of capital to high-return divisions in more detail.

現在讓我更詳細地討論一下向高回報部門分配資本的情況。

At our investor update, we outlined the plan to create a more balanced group.

在我們的投資者更新中，我們概述了創建更加平衡的集團的計劃。

To do this, we plan to allocate GBP30 billion of additional RWAs to our three highest returning businesses, Barclays UK, the UK Corporate Bank and Private Banking and Wealth Management.

為此，我們計劃向我們回報率最高的三大業務——巴克萊英國、英國企業銀行以及私人銀行和財富管理——額外分配 300 億英鎊的風險加權資產。

As we expected, actions that we took during the year began to generate organic balance sheet growth due towards the end of the year.

正如我們預期的那樣，我們在今年採取的行動在年底開始產生有機資產負債表成長。

And including the acquisition of Tesco Bank, RWA is in our highest returning UK businesses, increased by GBP13 billion due to business growth and by GBP15 billion overall in 2024.

包括對樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank) 的收購在內，風險加權資產是我們英國回報率最高的業務之一，由於業務增長，風險加權資產增加了 130 億英鎊，到 2024 年總體將增加 150 億英鎊。

And as Anna has discussed earlier, lead indicators of growth across our UK businesses are encouraging.

正如安娜之前所討論的，我們英國業務的領先成長指標令人鼓舞。

Given this, we expect a step-up in our organic RWA deployment during the year with further momentum in 2026.

有鑑於此，我們預計今年我們的有機 RWA 部署將有所提升，並在 2026 年獲得進一步發展。

We are committed to keeping Investment Bank RWAs relatively stable at 2023 levels.

我們致力於將投資銀行的風險加權資產維持在 2023 年的相對穩定水準。

And this is the third consecutive year in which this division has operated with this level of capital.

這是該部門連續第三年以如此高的資本水準運作。

We continue to expect investment banking RWAs to fall proportionately to about 50% of the group by 2026 from 56% today as we grow the three UK businesses.

隨著我們三家英國業務的成長，我們繼續預計到 2026 年投資銀行 RWA 佔集團的比例將從目前的 56% 下降至 50% 左右。

Taking a closer look at the Tesco Bank acquisition, which we are thinking about in 3 stages: acquire, integrate, and improve.

仔細研究樂購銀行的收購，我們將其分為三個階段：收購、整合和改進。

The first stage was completed on the first of November '24.

第一階段於1924年11月1日完成。

The acquisition has added GBP8 million to our unsecured balances, moving our weighting in credit cards and personal loans towards our 2019 position.

此次收購使我們的無擔保餘額增加了 800 萬英鎊，使我們的信用卡和個人貸款權重向 2019 年的水平靠攏。

And the profile of Tesco Bank's customers is attractive.

而且樂購銀行的客戶概況也很有魅力。

As we show in our operational data pack on Slide 57, Tesco Bank's customers have a higher spend per card than the market average.

正如我們在第 57 張投影片中的營運資料包中所展示的，樂購銀行的客戶每張卡的消費額高於市場平均。

Tesco's position as the UK's largest retailer with strong customer satisfaction and more than 20 million Tesco Clubcard holders provides a significant customer growth opportunity.

作為英國最大的零售商，樂購擁有強大的客戶滿意度和超過 2,000 萬的樂購會員卡持有者，為其提供了巨大的客戶成長機會。

We've also gained an additional brand to operate with and an open market lending capability.

我們還獲得了額外的營運品牌和公開市場貸款能力。

The second stage is to integrate Tesco Bank, which we intend to do during 2025 and '26, and this involves onboarding Tesco customers to Barclays' platform in 2026 to reduce duplication of systems and processes while maintaining a strong customer experience.

第二階段是整合樂購銀行，我們打算在 2025 年和 2026 年完成，這涉及在 2026 年將樂購客戶納入巴克萊平台，以減少系統和流程的重複，同時保持強大的客戶體驗。

The integration will require some upfront investment, but the realization of synergies will reduce the run rate costs.

整合將需要一些前期投資，但協同效應的實現將降低營運成本。

These actions are factored into our plan, and we continue to target a circa 50% cost to income ratio for Barclays UK in 2026, following an increase in '25 given the costs associated with the Tesco Bank.

這些行動都已納入我們的計劃，我們繼續將巴克萊英國的成本收入比目標定為 2026 年約 50%，而考慮到與樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank) 相關的成本，2025 年該比率將會有所增加。

The third stage is to improve the business, which we expect to gain momentum after 2027.

第三階段是改善業務，我們預期2027年後業務將獲得發展動力。

This will involve further growing customer balances supported by better access to funding and to capital.

這將涉及透過更好的融資和資本管道支援進一步增加客戶餘額。

This increased scale will enable greater efficiency as fixed costs are spread over a larger customer base.

由於固定成本可以分攤到更大的客戶群，因此規模的擴大將提高效率。

Turning now to the US Consumer Bank.

現在來談談美國消費銀行。

We made meaningful progress in 2024, improving RoTE to 9% from 4% and achieving cost-to-income ratio of 49%.

我們在 2024 年取得了重大進展，將 RoTE 從 4% 提高到 9%，成本收入比達到 49%。

We also announced that our American Airlines partnership will not be renewed beyond 2026.

我們也宣布，我們與美國航空的合作關係將不會在 2026 年後再簽。

American Airlines has been a card partner in our business for seven years as part of a dual issuer model, and we valued our long relationship with them.

作為雙重發行商模式的一部分，美國航空已經成為我們業務的信用卡合作夥伴七年了，我們珍惜與他們的長期合作關係。

We knew that the partnership could transition to a single issuer model.

我們知道合作關係可以轉變為單一發行人模式。

That happened last year, and we chose not to participate on that basis.

那是去年發生的事，因此我們選擇不參加。

The ending of our partnership provides a short-term gain on sale in 2026 and releases capital that we intend to use to diversify the business.

合作關係的結束為我們在 2026 年的銷售帶來了短期收益，並釋放了我們打算用於業務多元化的資本。

We expect the overall credit mix of the portfolio to change, still prime, but with less weighting to super prime balances.

我們預期投資組合的整體信貸結構將會發生變化，仍為優質信貸，但超級優質餘額的權重將會減少。

And all things being equal, this will lead to a higher net interest margin and loan loss rate and a higher risk-adjusted margin for the portfolio.

在其他條件相同的情況下，這將導致更高的淨利差和貸款損失率以及更高的投資組合風險調整利潤率。

Our 2026 targets are unchanged, including an RoTE of greater than 12% in line with the group as the gain on sale offsets lower profitability due to the loss of the receivables.

我們的 2026 年目標保持不變，包括實現超過 12% 的 RoTE，與集團目標一致，因為銷售收益抵消了應收帳款損失導致的盈利能力下降。

We are confident in our ability to grow card balances to achieve necessary scale in the US Consumer Bank.

我們有信心增加卡片餘額，以達到美國消費銀行必要的規模。

In line with our broader group strategy, the plan is organic.

該計劃是有機的，符合我們更廣泛的集團策略。

And organic growth has driven around 85% of our increase -- of the increase in our net card receivables since 2011.

自 2011 年以來，有機成長推動了我們淨信用卡應收帳款成長的約 85%。

And looking ahead, will drive two-third of our planned growth.

展望未來，將推動我們計劃成長的三分之二。

We have a strong foundation for such growth given that over 80% of our card receivables are under contract at least until 2029.

由於我們 80% 以上的信用卡應收款合約至少到 2029 年都已簽訂，因此我們為實現這種增長奠定了堅實的基礎。

Our success in accelerating balance growth for partners also translates into significant loyalty with a historical partnership renewal rate of around 90%.

我們在加速合作夥伴餘額成長方面的成功也轉化為顯著的忠誠度，歷史合作夥伴關係續約率約為 90%。

In 2024, notable renewals included Hawaiian and RCI.

2024 年，值得注意的續約包括夏威夷航空和 RCI 航空。

And at the start of 2025, we have also renewed our partnership with Wyndham.

2025 年初，我們也與溫德姆續簽了合作關係。

In addition to being a long-standing top 5 partner for us, Wyndham is also a long-term investment banking client.

溫德姆除了是我們長期的前五名合作夥伴之外，也是我們的長期投資銀行客戶。

This provides a good demonstration of how collaboration across the Barclays Group can drive successful outcomes.

這很好地展示了巴克萊集團內部的合作如何能取得成功。

While organic growth is at the heart of the plan, opportunities for inorganic growth in the market are also significant.

雖然有機成長是該計劃的核心，但市場無機成長的機會也很大。

For instance, 15 relevant deals (technical difficulty) in dollars of balances were tendered annually on average in the market during the past five years.

例如，過去五年來，市場上平均每年招標 15 筆相關交易（技術難度），金額以美元計算。

We remain confident in our ability to win new partners given the strength of our offering and our ability to increase customer engagement and balances.

鑑於我們產品的實力以及我們提高客戶參與度和平衡的能力，我們仍然對我們贏得新合作夥伴的能力充滿信心。

And this was evidenced by recent wins, including Breeze in 2023 and General Motors in 2024.

最近的勝利證明了這一點，包括 2023 年的 Breeze 和 2024 年的通用汽車。

The General Motors card portfolio, which we will onboard in the third quarter of '25 will offset about one-fourth of the balances we expect to lose from American Airlines.

我們將於 25 年第三季加入通用汽車信用卡組合，該組合將抵消我們預計美國航空損失的餘額的四分之一左右。

Overall, we remain focused on achieving scale beyond 2026 and driving improved efficiency to deliver mid-teens RoTE for this business.

總體而言，我們仍專注於在 2026 年以後實現規模並提高效率，從而為該業務實現中等水平的 RoTE。

Turning now to the Investment Bank.

現在來談談投資銀行。

Last year, we shared our plan to increase returns in the investment bank to greater than 12% by 2026, in line with our group target.

去年，我們分享了到 2026 年將投資銀行回報率提高到 12% 以上的計劃，以達到我們集團的目標。

While competitive and industry dynamics are creating opportunities and challenges for individual businesses, our overall progress is as expected, and we continue to run our own race.

雖然競爭和產業動態為各個企業創造了機會和挑戰，但我們的整體進展符合預期，我們繼續奔跑自己的賽道。

Our objective is to generate higher and more stable income and returns by improving RWA productivity and rebalancing resources in the business while only modestly increasing costs.

我們的目標是透過提高 RWA 生產力和重新平衡業務資源，同時僅適度增加成本，來創造更高、更穩定的收入和回報。

We delivered 7% year-on-year income growth in 2024, broadly on track with our high single-digit annualized growth target from '23 to '26.

2024 年，我們的營收年增 7%，基本上符合 2023 年至 2026 年高個位數年化成長目標。

And as a reminder, more than half of our planned growth in the investment bank comes from initiatives which we control with the remainder coming from growth in the industry wallet.

提醒一下，我們投資銀行計劃的成長中有一半以上來自於我們控制的計劃，其餘的則來自於產業資金的成長。

So we expect these initiatives to add GBP1.8 billion to our income by 2026.

因此，我們預計這些措施到 2026 年將為我們的收入增加 18 億英鎊。

And in the first year of our plan, we achieved around one-third of this planned improvement.

在計畫實施的第一年，我們就達成了計畫改善目標的三分之一左右。

In Investment Banking, we've increased share across most products.

在投資銀行業務方面，我們大多數產品的份額都有所增加。

This included strong performance in ECM where we increased fee share by about 100 basis points and in leveraged finance, where we increased share by 70 basis points.

這包括在 ECM 領域的強勁表現，我們將費用份額提高了約 100 個基點，以及在槓桿融資領域，我們將份額提高了 70 個基點。

And across the three focus businesses in market, we've made progress within equity derivatives and securitized products.

在市場的三大重點業務中，我們在股票衍生性商品和證券化產品方面取得了進展。

And while progress in European rates has been slower, we saw a recovery in the fourth quarter.

儘管歐洲利率進程較慢，但我們在第四季度看到了復甦。

Across our markets business, we now rank top 5 with 56 of our top 100 clients, up 7 from a year ago and versus our target of 70 by the end of 2026.

在我們的市場業務中，我們目前擁有前 100 名客戶中的 56 名，排名前 5，比一年前增加了 7 名，而我們的目標是到 2026 年底達到 70 名。

Our capital productivity has also improved, with income to RWAs increasing by 30 basis points year on year to 5.8%.

我們的資本生產力也有所提高，風險加權資產收入比去年同期增加了 30 個基點，達到 5.8%。

And we achieved positive draws, with income up 7% from '23 versus a four-year -- 4% increase in costs.

我們取得了積極的進展，收入比 23 年增長了 7%，而四年前成本增長了 4%。

And this enabled a year-on-year improvement in our cost-to-income ratio to 67%.

這使得我們的成本收入比年比改善至67％。

And we are focused on making further progress on this cost-income ratio in 2025 towards our delivery -- towards delivery of our high 50%s target for 2026 full year.

我們專注於在 2025 年進一步提高成本收入比，以實現 2026 年全年 50% 的高目標。

I'd like to highlight two areas of progress during the past year that helped to position the investment bank to perform in a range of scenarios.

我想強調過去一年中取得的兩個進展，這兩個進展幫助投資銀行在各種情況下都表現出色。

First, as Anna said, we continue to prioritize growth in stable income during 2024, particularly within financing.

首先，正如安娜所說，我們將繼續優先考慮 2024 年穩定收入的成長，特別是在融資方面。

Growing financing income enhances the durability of our returns, and we now have financing relationships with 98 of our top 100 clients.

不斷增長的融資收入增強了我們回報的持久性，現在我們與前100名客戶中的98家建立了融資關係。

Second, our banking fee share has increased by 30 basis points year on year to 3.3%, with the wallet also higher.

其次，我們的銀行費用佔比年成長30個基點，達到3.3%，而且錢包也增加了。

And we remain particularly positioned -- well positioned to benefit from stronger activity in the US where we generate 68% of our total banking fees.

我們仍處於特別有利的地位，可以從美國更強勁的銀行業務活動中獲益，美國產生了我們銀行費用總額的 68%。

At the same time, our market share in global markets declined 20 basis points in the year. reflecting lower share in fixed income, the larger of our markets businesses.

同時，我們在全球市場的份額在今年下降了20個基點。反映固定收益業務（我們市場規模較大的業務）份額較低。

And so while we are pleased with our direction of travel, we recognize that there's further work to do to deliver the full extent of our ambition.

因此，雖然我們對我們的前進方向感到滿意，但我們認識到，要充分實現我們的目標，還有很多工作要做。

Let me now hand over to Anna for the final installment of today's update.

現在，讓我將今天更新的最後一部分交給安娜。

Thank you, Venkat.

謝謝你，Venkat。

At our investor update last February, we outlined a plan to deliver ambitious financial targets and meaningfully higher shareholder distributions.

在去年二月的投資者更新中，我們概述了一項實現雄心勃勃的財務目標和顯著提高股東分配的計劃。

We are confident that we can deliver consistent returns in a range of scenarios underpinning our ambition.

我們有信心在實現我們宏偉目標的一系列情境下實現持續的回報。

I'll now go through what supports these targets.

我現在將介紹支持這些目標的因素。

The diversification of our business model by income, by geography helps support return in a range of economic environments.

我們的業務模式根據收入和地理實現多樣化，有助於在各種經濟環境中支持回報。

This has contributed to more stable returns in the last four years.

這有助於過去四年的回報更加穩定。

As Venkat mentioned, the external environment in 2024 was generally more supportive than we expected.

正如 Venkat 所提到的，2024 年的外部環境總體上比我們預期的更具支持性。

But in executing our plan, we remain focused on what we can control.

但在執行計劃時，我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

Our plan continues to be based on realistic assumptions.

我們的計劃繼續基於現實的假設。

These include four UK base rate cuts during 2025 and a bank rate of 3.5% by the end of 2026.

其中包括2025年英國四次下調基準利率，到2026年底將銀行利率降至3.5%。

We also assume a five-year swap rate of around 3.5% for the purpose of our structural hedge reinvestment, although I acknowledge that current market rates are higher.

為了進行結構性對沖再投資，我們也假設五年期掉期利率約為 3.5%，儘管我承認目前的市場利率較高。

And we are not relying on a recovery in the investment banking wallet to deliver our plan with our assumptions unchanged from those we outlined last year.

我們並不依賴投資銀行資金的恢復來實現我們的計劃，我們的假設與去年提出的假設沒有改變。

The next few slides describe how our drive towards higher and more predictable returns come together for our shareholders.

接下來的幾張投影片描述了我們如何為股東帶來更高、更可預測的回報。

Our 2026 targets are unchanged, including our North Star of a RoTE above 12%.

我們的 2026 年目標保持不變，包括我們的「RoTE 達到 12% 以上的北極星」。

Our foundation is strong, having delivered 10.5% last year, and we expect further improvement in 2025 to around 11%.

我們的基礎很牢固，去年的成長率為 10.5%，我們預計 2025 年成長率將進一步提高至 11% 左右。

Crucially, we expect income growth to provide a RoTE tailwind in 2025 with NII accounting for more than half of this.

至關重要的是，我們預計營收成長將在 2025 年為 RoTE 提供推動力，其中 NII 佔一半以上。

We will maintain cost discipline as we grow.

我們在發展過程中也將嚴格控製成本。

We expect our cost/income ratio to fall in 2025, and we expect further cost efficiency savings and income momentum into 2026.

我們預計我們的成本/收入比將在 2025 年下降，並且我們預計到 2026 年成本效率將進一步提高，收入也將進一步增加。

This combination will support a RoTE of more than 12%.

這種組合將支援超過 12% 的 RoTE。

I'll now explain the drivers of our income and costs in turn.

我現在將依序解釋我們的收入和成本的驅動因素。

We continue to target around GBP30 billion of income in 2026.

我們仍以 2026 年收入約 300 億英鎊為目標。

This means a further GBP3 billion of income growth over the next two years, having delivered GBP1.4 billion in 2024.

這意味著未來兩年收入將進一步成長 30 億英鎊，2024 年的營收將達到 14 億英鎊。

The drivers of our growth are within our control.

我們成長的動力在我們的掌控之中。

First, the strong NII tailwind.

首先，國家資訊基礎設施順風強勁。

For 2025, we expect a GBP0.9 billion increase in group NII, of which GBP0.8 million is from Barclays UK.

到 2025 年，我們預計集團 NII 將增加 9 億英鎊，其中 80 萬英鎊來自巴克萊英國。

Our confidence in delivering this reflects the predictable tailwind from the structural hedge underpinned by realistic assumptions about rates and reinvestment yields.

我們對實現這一目標的信心反映了由利率和再投資收益率的現實假設所支撐的結構性對沖帶來的可預測的順風。

And this tailwind lasts beyond '25 with the structural hedge driving around half of our expected increase in total group income over the next two years.

這種順風將持續到2025年後，結構性對沖將推動我們未來兩年集團總收入預計成長的一半左右。

In addition, we expect balance sheet and earnings momentum from the deployment of RWAs in our three high returning UK businesses.

此外，我們預計，在我們三家回報率較高的英國企業中部署風險加權資產將會帶來資產負債表和獲利成長動能。

This momentum was apparent in Q4, and we expect it to continue and to be visible in our 2025 performance.

這一勢頭在第四季度顯而易見，我們預計這種勢頭將持續下去，並在 2025 年的表現中顯現出來。

Second, non-NII, mainly coming from the investment bank.

第二，非NII，主要來自投資銀行。

We expect to deliver a high single-digit CAGR income growth over the life of our three-year plan and are broadly on track, having delivered 7% in '24.

我們預計，在三年計畫的實施期間，收入複合年增長率將達到個位數高成長，目前整體進展順利，24 年實現了 7% 的成長。

Overall year-on-year growth of GBP0.8 billion in the IB included GBP0.2 billion from wallet growth.

IB整體年增8億英鎊，其中錢包成長2億英鎊。

Importantly, the biggest share of this increase of GBP0.6 billion came from the execution of our management initiatives or one-third of the GBP1.8 billion total we expect by 2026.

重要的是，這 6 億英鎊成長中最大的份額來自於我們管理措施的執行，占我們預計到 2026 年 18 億英鎊總額的三分之一。

This leaves a further GBP1.2 billion of growth from management actions over the next two years.

這意味著未來兩年管理措施也將帶來12億英鎊的成長。

As with the case last year, we are not relying on wallet growth to meet our target.

與去年的情況一樣，我們並不依賴錢包成長來實現我們的目標。

In fact, our assumptions are unchanged from a year ago with a lower banking wallet in both '25 and '26 versus '24.

事實上，我們的假設與一年前相比沒有變化，2025年和2026年的銀行存款餘額都低於2024年。

And should the recovery continue, our business is strongly positioned to participate in a rebound in deal activity, particularly in the US, where we generate around two-third of our banking fees.

如果經濟復甦持續下去，我們的業務將有強勁優勢參與交易活動的反彈，特別是在美國，我們在美國產生的銀行費用約佔總收入的三分之二。

Moving on to costs.

繼續討論成本。

Managing cost is at the heart of what we can control.

管理成本是我們能夠控制的核心。

We showed this in 2024 achieving a 62% cost-to-income ratio.

我們在 2024 年實現了 62% 的成本收入比。

This improvement versus 2023 was supported by the delivery of GBP1 billion of gross efficiency savings in the year.

與 2023 年相比，這項改進得益於當年 10 億英鎊的總效率節約。

These savings reflected targeted actions in respect to people, property, and infrastructure.

這些節省體現了針對人員、財產和基礎設施的有針對性的行動。

For example, in the past year, we decommissioned around 200 legacy applications as part of our plan to exit between [$450 million and $500 million] by 2026.

例如，在過去的一年裡，我們停用了大約 200 個遺留應用程序，這是我們到 2026 年退出計劃的一部分，退出金額在 [4.5 億至 5 億美元] 之間。

We increased our digitally active customers in Barclays UK by 700,000 and and rationalized our branch network by more than 25%.

我們將巴克萊英國的數位活躍客戶增加了 70 萬名，並將我們的分公司網路合理化了 25% 以上。

And in markets, our actions during the last two years have driven a 20% reduction in the number of trade capture and risk pricing systems supporting our efficiency and operational resilience.

在市場方面，我們在過去兩年中採取的行動已使支援我們效率和營運彈性的交易捕獲和風險定價系統數量減少了 20%。

Looking forward, there are three drivers of cost change in 2025 and 2026.

展望未來，2025年和2026年有三個成本變化驅動因素。

First, efficiency savings.

一是增效節約。

We expect a further GBP1 billion in gross efficiency savings split broadly evenly across the next two years.

我們預計，未來兩年內還將進一步實現 10 億英鎊的總效率節約。

Around one-third of these savings come from plans to simplify customer journeys with the rest driven by actions to streamline businesses, including the optimization of people and technology.

其中約三分之一的節省來自簡化客戶旅程的計劃，其餘則來自簡化業務的行動，包括人員和技術的優化。

Second, inflation which we expect to be more meaningful in '25 versus '26.

其次，我們預計2025年的通貨膨脹將比2026年的更嚴重。

This is because inflation impacts on us on a lagged basis, so '25 reflects some of the headline inflation pressure we've observed recently.

這是因為通膨對我們的影響是滯後的，所以 25 反映了我們最近觀察到的一些整體通膨壓力。

It also includes a GBP50 million increase in national insurance contributions following the UK budget.

其中還包括根據英國預算增加5000萬英鎊的國家保險繳款。

And third, greater investment in our highest-returning businesses in 2025.

第三，到 2025 年，我們將加大對回報最高的業務的投資。

Specifically, I would call out the annualization of investment costs, which have increased during 2024 and additional Tesco Bank costs, including integration.

具體來說，我要指出的是投資成本的年化，該成本在 2024 年有所增加，以及樂購銀行的額外成本，包括整合。

In 2025, incremental investment and inflation are expected to exceed efficiency savings, resulting in an increase in our costs.

2025年，預計增量投資和通貨膨脹將超過效率節約，導致我們的成本增加。

In 2026, we expect costs to be broadly stable, if not down a little year on year, as incremental investment and inflation moderates and are offset by efficiency savings.

到 2026 年，我們預計成本將基本保持穩定，甚至會同比略有下降，因為增量投資和通膨將有所緩和，並被效率節約所抵消。

Given this cost profile and planned income growth, we expect our cost-to-income ratio to fall by 1% in 2025 to circa 61% and to fall more significantly to our high 50%s percent in 2026.

鑑於此成本狀況和計劃的收入增長，我們預計我們的成本收入比將在 2025 年下降 1% 至約 61%，並在 2026 年大幅下降至 50% 的高位。

Given our 2026 income target of GBP30 billion, our high 50%s cost-to-income target would be consistent with around GBP17 billion of costs.

鑑於我們 2026 年的收入目標為​​ 300 億英鎊，我們高 50% 的成本收入比目標將與約 170 億英鎊的成本一致。

We will drive further efficiency beyond that in each of our businesses and for the group as a whole.

我們將進一步提高每個業務以及整個集團的效率。

Barclays UK and Investment Bank represents some 70% of our planned cost efficiency savings, work to reduce duplicate systems and processes for Tesco Bank should reduce the cost run rate from circa GBP30 million per month currently synergies are realized.

巴克萊英國投資銀行約占我們計畫成本效率節約的 70%，為樂購銀行減少重複系統和流程的努力應該會將成本運行率從目前的每月約 3000 萬英鎊降低，從而實現協同效應。

And across Barclays UK, we remain focused on streamlining and digitizing the business to improve our efficiency.

在英國巴克萊銀行，我們依然致力於簡化和數位化業務，以提高我們的效率。

And in the Investment Bank, we invested significantly between 2021 and '23 to sustain and grow future income.

在投資銀行方面，我們在 2021 年至 2023 年期間進行了大量投資，以維持和增加未來收入。

In markets that investment centered around technology, whilst the focus in investment banking was more on people.

在市場中，投資以科技為中心，而投資銀行的重點則較放在人身上。

We expect these actions to result in greater productivity and a high 50%s cost-to-income ratio in the investment bank by 2026, with further efficiencies expected beyond.

我們預計，到 2026 年，這些措施將提高投資銀行的生產效率，使成本收入比達到 50% 左右，並且預計以後效率將進一步提高。

Put differently, 2026 does not represent the full extent of our ambition.

換句話說，2026 年並不代表我們雄心壯志的全部範圍。

Turning now to capital and capital generation.

現在來談談資本和資本創造。

As we grow returns in line with our plan, we expect to generate around 170 basis points of capital during 2025, rising to more than 200 basis points in 2026.

隨著我們按照計畫增加回報，我們預計 2025 年將產生約 170 個基點的資本，到 2026 年將上升至 200 個基點以上。

We have a clear hierarchy for capital allocation in order of priority, first, to hold a prudent level of capital with an expectation that we will continue to operate towards the upper half of our 13% to 14% CET1 target range, taking into account regulatory requirements.

我們對資本配置有一個明確的優先順序，首先，保持審慎的資本水平，並預期我們將繼續在考慮到監管要求的情況下，將普通一級資本充足率目標區間維持在 13% 至 14% 的上半部分。

By doing this, we deliver for our investors, customers, clients, and colleagues regardless of the environment.

透過這樣做，無論環境如何，我們都能為我們的投資者、顧客、客戶和同事提供服務。

Second, to distribute capital to our shareholders; and third, to invest selectively in our highest returning divisions, resulting in a more profitable RWA mix and a better bank for all our stakeholders.

第二，向股東分配資本；第三，選擇性地投資於我們回報率最高的部門，從而為所有利害關係人帶來更有利可圖的 RWA 組合和更好的銀行服務。

We set a high bar for investment returns given the importance we place on shareholder distributions overall.

鑑於我們整體上非常重視股東分配，因此我們為投資回報設定了較高的標準。

We announced GBP3 billion of capital distributions in respect of FY24.

我們宣布 24 財年的資本分配為 30 億英鎊。

These distributions represent an important step in our target to return at least GBP10 billion to shareholders during the life of our plan.

這些分配代表著我們朝著在計畫有效期內向股東返還至少 100 億英鎊的目標邁出了重要一步。

We expect a progressive increase in our total payout during 2025.

我們預計 2025 年總支出將逐步增加。

And as a reminder, we plan to keep the total dividend broadly stable at GBP1.2 billion per year, growing our dividend per share progressively through lower share count.

提醒一下，我們計劃將股息總額保持在大致穩定在每年 12 億英鎊的水平，並透過減少股份數量逐步增加每股股息。

Bringing this together, we are reiterating our group targets for 2026 and are providing additional guidance for 2025.

綜合起來，我們重申了 2026 年的集團目標，並為 2025 年提供了額外指引。

This includes 2025 RoTE guidance of circa 11% and a progressive increase in our total payout versus GBP3 billion per year in the past two years.

這包括 2025 年 RoTE 指引約為 11% 以及我們的總支出（過去兩年為每年 30 億英鎊）的逐步增加。

The expected increase in RoTE will be supported by group NII growth to around GBP12.2 billion including an increase in Barclays UK to around GBP7.4 billion.

預計 RoTE 的成長將受到集團 NII 成長至約 122 億英鎊（其中包括巴克萊英國增至約 74 億英鎊）的支持。

We expect to improve the cost -- group cost income ratio to circa 61%.

我們預計成本-集團成本收入比將提高至約61％。

Our progress during 2024 provides a solid foundation for these milestones.

我們在 2024 年的進步為這些里程碑奠定了堅實的基礎。

We continue to deliver against our plan to achieve a RoTE greater than 12% by focusing on structural actions that are within our control to improve income and efficiency.

我們將繼續按照計劃，透過集中採取我們能夠控制的結構性行動來提高收入和效率，實現超過 12% 的 RoTE。

Over to Venkat for final remarks.

請 Venkat 作最後的發言。

Thanks again, Anna.

再次感謝你，安娜。

So one year into the three-year plan.

三年計劃已經進行了一年。

We are pleased with our progress, but we recognize that there's still work to be done to deliver our 2026 targets.

我們對我們的進展感到滿意，但我們認識到要實現 2026 年的目標還有很多工作要做。

And we are working hard to deliver sustainable operational and financial improvement across our businesses.

我們正在努力實現整個業務的可持續營運和財務改善。

And this, in turn, we expect will drive higher group returns and shareholder distributions.

而我們預計這反過來將推動更高的集團回報和股東分配。

I'll now open to question and answers.

我現在開始提問和回答。

Please limit yourself to two questions per person so that we can get around as many of you as possible.

請將每個人的提問限制為兩個，以便我們盡可能回答你們的問題。

I will begin Alvaro with you.

我將和你一起開始《阿爾瓦羅》。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

Two questions, please.

請問兩個問題。

One on your income assumptions.

一個是關於你的收入假設。

I've noted that you expect wallet share -- the size of wallet to come down, but I'll focus on BUK, because I guess we'll have a view on that.

我注意到您預計錢包份額——錢包的大小會下降，但我將重點關注 BUK，因為我想我們會對此有一個看法。

On BUK, the guidance for 2025 looks my numbers for an underlying 2% growth versus the run rate in Q4, which sounds quite conservative given the volume growth and given the hedge contribution should be increasing.

對於 BUK 而言，2025 年的預期是，相對於第四季度的運行率，成長率為 2%，考慮到銷售成長和對沖貢獻應該會增加，這個數字聽起來相當保守。

Are you just being conservative or are we missing any moving parts around more competition in asset product like mortgage?

您只是比較保守，還是我們忽略了抵押貸款等資產產品方面更多競爭的推動因素？

Is there anything we're missing there?

我們是否遺漏了什麼？

I just been out of conservatism.

我剛剛脫離了保守主義。

And the second question on capital.

第二個問題是關於資本的。

If we take out, obviously, the buyback and German cards will come down and you want to operate at the higher end of the 13% to 14%, do you have any sort of RWA efficiency measures that you can call out?

如果我們拿出來，顯然回購和德國卡的數量就會下降，而你想在 13% 到 14% 的高端運營，你有什麼可以提及的 RWA 效率措施嗎？

And I'm thinking, obviously, there's been a Twitter sale.

我想，顯然，Twitter 上已經有銷售了。

It sounds like a couple of blocks there, and these are very high risk-weighted sort of kind of positions over to 50% from -- if memory certainly right, will that have a significant impact that will help you sort of reallocate the capital to growth areas?

聽起來那裡有幾個街區，這些都是風險加權非常高的頭寸，超過 50％ - 如果記憶沒錯的話，這是否會產生重大影響，幫助您將資本重新分配到增長領域？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Alvaro.

謝謝你，阿爾瓦羅。

I'll take both of those.

我都要這兩個。

So let me start with the question that you didn't ask, but you sort of asked, which was about the banking wallet.

那麼，讓我先問一個你沒有問但是卻問到的問題，也就是關於銀行錢包的問題。

So I want to be really clear here, we are assuming or we have an assumption that the banking wallet remains as we had it last year.

因此，我想在這裡明確一點，我們假設或者說我們有一個假設，即銀行錢包的餘額與去年相同。

You shouldn't take from that that if the opportunities are greater in the market that we would seek to monetize those as we have done in Q4 and indeed all the way through 2024.

你不應該由此就認為，如果市場上有更大的機會，我們就會尋求將其貨幣化，就像我們在第四季乃至整個 2024 年所做的那樣。

So I'll just call out that distinction.

所以我只想強調一下這種區別。

Relating to Barclays UK, we're guiding to NII next year or in '25 of GBP7.4 billion.

就巴克萊英國而言，我們預計明年或25年的NII將達到74億英鎊。

As I think about that number, I reflect back on 2024.

當我想到這個數字時，我回想起了 2024 年。

And actually, what we've seen in successive quarters is strong NII growth.

實際上，我們已經連續幾個季度看到 NII 強勁成長。

And we expect that to continue in 2025 and into 2026.

我們預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年和 2026 年。

BUK NII is not near its peak.

BUK NII 還未接近頂峰。

As I take the 7.4%, I think of it in a number of building blocks.

當我拿到 7.4% 時，我把它想像成一系列的構成要素。

So the first is take the Q4 run rate ex Tesco multiply that by four.

因此，首先將 Tesco 第四季的運行率乘以四。

Then add on GBP400 million for Tesco, add on the impact of maturing structural hedge this year.

然後再加上樂購的4億英鎊，加上今年到期的結構性避險的影響。

Now we are assuming a reinvestment rate of 3.5% in that calculation, and then take off the impact of 4 base rate reductions in the year.

現在我們假設再投資率為3.5%，然後去掉今年4次基準利率下修的影響。

As I put those building blocks together, you will get to around GBP7.4 billion.

當我把這些積木放在一起時，你將獲得約 74 億英鎊。

In addition to that, there's two further things for you to consider.

除此之外，還有兩件事要考慮。

The first, as you note, we have got good momentum in the business, and you can see that in Q4; you can see that in cards and in mortgages.

首先，正如您所說，我們的業務發展勢頭良好，您可以在第四季度看到這一點；您可以在信用卡和抵押貸款中看到這一點。

We expect that to continue.

我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

In our calculation, what we're assuming here is that there is some offset in margin.

在我們的計算中，我們假設利潤率有一定的偏移。

I wouldn't call anything out in particular.

我不會特別指出任何事。

I would just say particularly in liability margins, we expect a continuation of migration.

我只想說，特別是在責任保證金方面，我們預期移民現象將會持續下去。

Nothing more than we've seen.

我們所見的僅此而已。

So I'm not expecting it to accelerate, but I'm just assuming that those two things are somewhat offsetting within the year.

所以我並不期望它會加速，但我只是假設這兩件事在今年會有所抵消。

You may have different expectations for those macro assumptions or indeed the swap rate.

您可能對這些宏觀假設或掉期利率有不同的預期。

But we're trying to route this plan within factors that we can control, and we believe that we've made realistic assumptions that underpin that number.

但我們正嘗試在我們可以控制的因素範圍內實施這項計劃，我們相信我們已經做出了支撐該數字的現實假設。

But I'd just highlight, we're expecting continued income momentum in BUK into '25 and beyond.

但我想強調的是，我們預計 BUK 的收入動能將在 25 年及以後持續維持。

In terms of your capital number, I mean, I'm not going to speak about any client positions as you would expect.

就您的資本數字而言，我的意思是，我不會像您所期望的那樣談論任何客戶頭寸。

Our focus here is on executing the plan as it is elsewhere.

與其他地方一樣，我們的重點是執行該計劃。

We'd expect the investment bank to operate within the framework we've given it for RWAs.

我們希望投資銀行能夠在我們為 RWA 提供的框架中運作。

So you should expect those RWAs to be broadly flat.

因此，你應該預期這些 RWA 大致持平。

The thing that you didn't call out actually was organic capital generation.

實際上你沒有提到的是有機資本的產生。

That's what we're confident in here.

這就是我們所確信的。

So throughout Q1 -- remember, Q1 is a seasonally strong quarter for us.

因此在整個第一季——請記住，第一季對我們來說是一個季節性強勁的季度。

We deploy RWAs into the business, but seasonally, it is very strong for us in terms of investment banking and markets activity.

我們將 RWA 部署到業務中，但從季節性來看，這對我們的投資銀行和市場活動來說非常強勁。

And as we've called out in the presentation, our expectation is that organic capital generation will continue to develop, both in '25 and in '26.

正如我們在演示中提到的那樣，我們預計有機資本生成將繼續發展，無論是在25年還是26年。

And the kind of capital range that we talked about today is no different from where you've seen us operate actually over the last two to three years.

我們今天談論的資本範圍與過去兩三年我們實際營運的資本範圍沒有什麼不同。

So I'll come to you in a second, early, but just if I may emphasize one thing, which is behind the spirit of what we did last year and what we're doing this year is given you our slides, we've given an operational data pack.

因此，我稍後會來找你們，但如果我可以強調一件事，那就是我們去年所做的事情以及今年所做的事情背後的精神，我們為你們提供了我們的幻燈片，提供了一個運營數據包。

We've been very clear with our assumptions, right?

我們的假設已經非常清楚了，對嗎？

And I think not just on NII, but other aspects.

我認為不僅是在NII方面，還包括其他方面。

I think that's our approach, which is to tell you what we think structurally we are trying to achieve.

我認為這就是我們的方法，即告訴你我們在結構上想要實現什麼。

Our cyclical assumptions or our macro assumptions and allow you, therefore, to impose your view, if you'd like, right.

因此，如果您願意的話，我們的周期性假設或宏觀假設允許您強加自己的觀點，對吧。

Perlie?

珀莉？

Hello, thank you, Venkat.

你好，謝謝你，Venkat。

Thank you, Anna, for taking my question So I guess the first one is on '26 targets.

謝謝安娜回答我的問題，所以我想第一個問題是關於『26 個目標』。

And I guess a share price reaction this morning, maybe the fact that people were expecting a little bit more.

我想，今天早上股價的反應可能表明人們的預期更高一些。

And as you noted that -- well, the environment is probably better than what you were sitting on a year ago when you put out the targets for the first time across every metric you could think of pretty much.

正如您所說，現在的環境可能比您一年前第一次提出涵蓋幾乎所有您能想到的指標的目標時的情況要好得多。

So I guess, why you not upgrade '26 targets a bit more.

所以我想，為什麼你不進一步升級一下『26 個目標呢？

I mean, I know it's greater than 12%.

我的意思是，我知道它大於 12%。

So -- but would you, for example, like invite us to put more focus on the greater than, for example, and any color you could give on that would be really helpful.

所以 —— 但是，例如，您是否願意邀請我們更多地關注大於，例如，並且您能提供的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

If you were to were to come up with a plan today, wouldn't you be more optimistic than you were a year ago?

如果您今天制定一個計劃，您會不會比一年前更樂觀？

I guess that's the first question.

我想這是第一個問題。

The second question is on US cards.

第二個問題是關於美國卡的。

Just the direction of the business as the AA book phases out.

隨著 AA 書籍的逐步淘汰，這只是業務的方向。

So do you still see it as a growth business because a few years ago, that was an area of growth that we all looked at?

那麼您是否仍然將其視為一項成長型業務，因為幾年前，這是我們都關注的成長領域？

And then I guess more operationally, what does the exit of AA mean?

然後我想從操作角度來說，AA 的退出意味著什麼？

So what I'm thinking is that, well, maybe receivables growth will be a bit slower in the next couple of years as the bill comes to an end.

所以我的想法是，隨著法案的到期，未來幾年應收帳款的成長可能會稍微慢一些。

And then as you take on new books, well, there will be more J-curve impact and more day one impairments, et cetera.

然後，當你接受新書時，就會有更多的 J 曲線影響和更多的第一天損害，等等。

So how is that going to impact the RoTE because I know that you haven't changed the guidance on that either.

那麼這將如何影響 RoTE，因為我知道您也沒有改變這方面的指導。

I'll let Anna take the first part and then I'll comment for the second part.

我會讓安娜負責第一部分，然後我會評論第二部分。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So our focus is management, Perlie.

所以我們的重點是管理，Perlie。

What you should expect us to do is to execute the operational plan and deliver the financials without surprises.

您應該期望我們做的是執行營運計劃並毫無意外地提供財務成果。

That is our objective.

這就是我們的目標。

And so our focus is on executing the plan that we've given you.

因此，我們的重點是執行我們為您提供的計劃。

And I would emphasize the greater than 12 and -- at least GBP10 billion.

我想強調的是，這個數字大於 120 億英鎊，至少 100 億英鎊。

But our primary focus really is on executing that plan.

但我們的主要重點確實是執行該計劃。

We're pleased with the progress that we've made in 2024.

我們對 2024 年的進展感到非常滿意。

We've hit all of the targets and guidance that we gave you, and we feel we've set the business up really well for momentum in '25 and '26.

我們已經實現了所給予的所有目標和指導，我們認為我們已經為25年和26年的業務發展奠定了良好的基礎。

And I'll just call out that difference that I highlighted before.

我只想指出我之前強調過的差異。

We are planning on realistic assumptions because we want as much of this plan within our control as is possible.

我們在製定計劃時基於現實的假設，因為我們希望盡可能地控制這個計劃。

However, if the market environment allows whether that be interest rates, swap rates, or the banking wallet, you should expect us to monetize that opportunity.

然而，如果市場環境允許，無論是利率、掉期利率或銀行錢包，你都應該期待我們能將這個機會貨幣化。

Yeah.

是的。

Look, I'll emphasize that as well, which is that it's a realistic plan.

聽著，我也會強調這一點，這是一個現實的計畫。

It's a confident plan, right?

這是一個很有信心的計劃，對吧？

It's a confident plan, which is based on strong structural progress across the things which we can control and then taking advantage of cyclical opportunities as we did last year, and we expect to, as they come up.

這是一項充滿信心的計劃，它基於我們能夠控制的事物的強勁結構性進展，然後利用周期性機會，就像我們去年所做的那樣，並且我們期望在它們出現時繼續這樣做。

On the US cards business, we remain confident for a couple of reasons.

對於美國信用卡業務，我們仍然充滿信心，原因有幾個。

First of all, we gave you the statistic of the number of accounts and the volume of receivables that come up for bid.

首先，我們向您提供了投標的帳戶數量和應收帳款金額的統計資料。

Second -- which is GBP40 billion in this thing.

第二，這項投資是 400 億英鎊。

Second is that we have, a, locked up around 90% of our -- 85% of our net receivables outside of American through to 2029.

第二，我們已經鎖定了美國以外地區約 90% 到 2029 年的 85% 的淨應收帳款。

And third, we have a retention rate of 90% renewal rate.

第三，我們的續約率達到 90%。

We operate in a very specialized place with midsized companies for whom we have a particular skill at managing their partnership portfolio and able to grow their balances and increased customer engagement.

我們在一個非常專業的領域與中型公司合作，我們擅長管理這些公司的合作夥伴組合，能夠增加他們的餘額並提高客戶參與度。

And so just like General Motors came in this year, we will continue to look for these opportunities.

因此，就像通用汽車今年進來一樣，我們將繼續尋找這些機會。

I'm fairly confident we'll land them because when we participate in these, we know what we provide very valuably into the market.

我非常有信心我們會成功，因為當我們參與這些專案時，我們知道我們能為市場提供什麼非常有價值的東西。

And then on the operational side, we will continue -- to come back to your point on J-curve, first of all, if a lot of the book, 85% of the book is locked through 2029, yeah, there will be a J-curve for new things, right?

然後在營運方面，我們將繼續 - 回到你關於 J 曲線的觀點，首先，如果很多賬簿，85％的賬簿被鎖定到 2029 年，是的，新事物就會出現 J 曲線，對嗎？

But as a proportion of the business, it's smaller.

但作為業務的一部分，它的規模較小。

Would you add anything?

您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'll just reflect back on the plan that we set out last year.

我只是回顧一下我們去年制定的計劃。

It's a plan of many parts.

這是一個由多部分組成的計劃。

It's an executional plan that actually goes all the way through the P&L and the balance sheet.

這是一個實際上貫穿損益表和資產負債表的執行計劃。

Clearly, revenue growth is important, but it's not the only thing that we're working on to improve the RoTE of the business.

顯然，營收成長很重要，但這並不是我們為改善業務的 RoTE 而努力的唯一方法。

So we're working very hard on mitigating the impacts of regulatory headwinds.

因此，我們正在努力減輕監管阻力的影響。

So you saw that transaction in Q1 of this year.

所以你在今年第一季看到了那筆交易。

We're working very hard in terms of the cost efficiency of this business.

我們正在非常努力地提高該業務的成本效益。

The cost income ratio is now below 50% in this business.

目前該業務的成本收入比低於50%。

It's fallen for the last consecutive four years.

該數字已連續四年下降。

And remember, we're targeting to get it to mid-40%s. So there's a big digitization push in this business.

請記住，我們的目標是將其提高到 40% 左右。因此，這個產業的數位化進程非常迅速。

The third thing is we continue to work on the net interest margin of the business.

第三件事是我們繼續努力提高業務的淨利差。

We spoke again about that last year and that there are two parts.

我們去年再次談論過這個問題，分成兩個部分。

The first was repricing.

首先是重新定價。

We completed that repricing in 2024.

我們於 2024 年完成了重新定價。

And you're going to see it start to accumulate in the NIM over time.

您將會看到它隨著時間的推移開始在 NIM 中累積。

And the second thing is really reducing our funding cost by driving up the proportion of retail deposits.

第二件事是透過提高零售存款的比例來真正降低我們的融資成本。

Again, I spoke about that in my prepared remarks.

我再次在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。

So Venkat is absolutely right, there are opportunities here to grow volume, but our RoTE delivery is volume, capital efficiency, cost efficiency, and NIM.

因此 Venkat 完全正確，這裡有增加產量的機會，但我們的 RoTE 交付的是產量、資本效率、成本效率和 NIM。

Ben Toms from RBC.

來自 RBC 的 Ben Toms。

There's been a lot of discussion over the last month around the government going softer on regulation, for example, changes in LTV restrictions.

上個月，關於政府放鬆監管的討論很多，例如改變貸款價值比 (LTV) 限制。

Do any of the changes that have been put forward actually have the potential to be material tailwinds?

已經提出的任何改變是否真的有可能成為實質的推動力？

And if -- how you put a beat to Barclays if there was a leveling of the playing field on ring fencing so you could use the first GBP35 billion of your deposits to fund other parts of the group.

如果——如果在圍欄方面有公平的競爭環境，您如何擊敗巴克萊銀行，以便您可以使用前 350 億英鎊的存款為該集團的其他部分提供資金。

And I guess, tied to this, does the messaging around risk attitude for M&A in the UK have the potential to cause you to rethink your low tolerance to material transactions?

我想，與此相關，英國關於併購風險態度的訊息是否有可能讓您重新考慮對重大交易的低容忍度？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good questions to both.

這兩個問題都是很好的。

So look, I think we are at the early stages of a regulatory debate in the UK, which go both to what might happen on prudential regulation as well as consumer regulation.

所以，我認為我們正處於英國監管辯論的早期階段，這涉及審慎監管和消費者監管方面可能發生的情況。

We do think that, obviously, regulation is very important, and it's important to the city of London.

我們確實認為，監管顯然非常重要，對倫敦金融城也很重要。

We also think it's important to have a balanced regulatory outlook and one that is commensurate across the globe.

我們也認為，擁有平衡的、與全球相稱的監管觀念非常重要。

So in the US, you're seeing a rethinking on Basel, on the base of Basel as well as stress testing.

因此在美國，你會看到人們對巴塞爾、巴塞爾基礎以及壓力測試的重新思考。

And the PRA has postponed its own decisions until 2027.

PRA 已將其決定推遲至 2027 年。

We would always want, we've always advocated for consistency in total capital requirements.

我們始終希望、始終主張總資本要求的一致性。

That means base capital in Basel as well as stress testing.

這意味著巴塞爾的基本資本以及壓力測試。

And that's what we'd like to see.

這也正是我們希望看到的。

But it's too soon for me to say one way or the other what the results are going to be.

但現在我還無法預測結果會如何。

So you've seen the plan that we've given you with the assumptions we have.

所以您已經看到了我們根據自己的假設給您的計劃。

On the consumer side, obviously, there has been volatility that's come in because of impact of regulations, impact of court cases, worries about retrospective application of these things.

在消費者方面，顯然由於法規的影響、法庭案件的影響以及對這些法規的追溯應用的擔憂而出現了波動。

And you've seen it in the charges that people have taken, and we took a provision on Motor Finance.

您可以從人們收取的費用中看到這一點，我們也針對汽車金融制定了規定。

What I'm very happy about on that is that we were small in the business, and we exited the business in 2019, right?

讓我感到非常高興的是，我們在這個業務上的規模很小，我們在 2019 年退出了這個業務，對嗎？

And so you've got to risk manage this situation, you should always expect us to do that.

所以你必須管理好這種情況的風險，你應該總是期望我們這樣做。

And then as far as M&A, look, this is an organic plan, right?

至於併購，看，這是一個有機計劃，對嗎？

And what you're seeing us do is to present what we aim to do for this bank in an organic way.

您看到我們所做的就是以有機的方式展示我們為這家銀行所做的事情。

And that is what we intend to be absolutely focused on.

這正是我們想要全心全意關注的。

I might just add on -- because I think you asked about mortgages also, Ben.

我可能還會補充一點——因為我認為你也問到了抵押貸款的問題，本。

There are three things, I think, being talked about.

我認為有三件事正在被談論。

The first is some reduction in the restrictions around loan to income and also sort of affordability stress testing.

首先是減少對貸款收入的限制以及某種負擔能力壓力測試。

I think our perception would be the second is probably more meaningful in the current environment just because of the interest rate environment, that affordability test is probably the one that restrains the market a little bit more.

我認為我們的看法是，在當前環境下，第二種可能更有意義，只是因為利率環境，負擔能力測試可能會對市場產生更大的限制。

And then the third thing is around potentially reducing RWA weightings in higher loan-to-value mortgages.

第三件事是可能減少高貸款價值比抵押貸款中的 RWA 權重。

We're an IRB bank.

我們是一家 IRB 銀行。

So any change to the standardization -- standardized rules wouldn't impact Barclays.

因此，標準化規則的任何變更都不會影響巴克萊銀行。

They would impact Kensington, but not the Barclays lending, not the larger part of the group.

它們會影響肯辛頓，但不會影響巴克萊銀行的貸款業務，也不會影響集團的大部分業務。

Yes, Andy.

是的，安迪。

Good morning.

早安.

If I could just start with costs.

如果我可以從成本開始的話。

Thank you for slide 47.

感謝第 47 張投影片。

I'm just going to rephrase the slide, I guess, essentially, GBP16.7 billion of costs in 2024 if we're thinking about this in absolute cost terms rather than cost income, given that you've got the UK, Tesco double run investment in corporate and PBWM, you've got FX translation.

我只是要重新措辭幻燈片，我想，基本上，如果我們從絕對成本而不是成本收入來考慮這一點，那麼 2024 年的成本將達到 167 億英鎊，考慮到你有英國、樂購在企業和 PBWM 的雙重投資，你就有外匯翻譯。

Presumably what you're essentially saying is you're expecting the cost base to grow to in excess of GBP17 billion in 2025 before them fading back to around GBP17 million in 2026, but just wanted to make sure that understanding was correct.

想必您實際上是想說，您預計成本基數將在 2025 年增長至超過 170 億英鎊，然後到 2026 年回落至 1700 萬英鎊左右，但我只是想確保這種理解是正確的。

And then the second question on the US Consumer Bank.

第二個問題是關於美國消費銀行的。

You've specifically drawn out on slide 39 that there is going to be a gain on the sale of the AA portfolio, and that seems to be included within the target.

您在第 39 張投影片上明確指出，出售 AA 投資組合將會產生收益，這似乎包含在目標之內。

So does that mean that come 2027, the RoTE fade again before it then recovers thereafter within that division?

那麼，這是否意味著到 2027 年，RoTE 將再次消失，然後才在該部門內恢復？

Yes, I'll go ahead.

是的，我繼續。

So let's just look at slide 47, please.

那麼請讓我們來看看第 47 張投影片。

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

So we're expecting our costs to go up in 2025 because of the annualization of Tesco because of the integration costs of Tesco and because of those inflation headwinds that I talked about in my prepared remarks.

因此，我們預計我們的成本在 2025 年會上升，這歸因於樂購的年度化、樂購的整合成本以及我在準備好的發言中提到的通膨阻力。

But underneath all of this, you've got a continued focus in gross efficiency.

但在這一切的背後，你仍持續關注著整體效率。

So that's going to be continuing.

這種情況將會持續下去。

In '25, inflation and investment outweigh the efficiency.

在'25年，通貨膨脹和投資超過了效率。

In '26, it's the other way around.

但在'26年，情況正好相反。

So actually, I'm expecting costs to go above GBP17 billion actually.

所以實際上我預計成本將超過 170 億英鎊。

I think consensus is not in a bad place and then drop back.

我認為共識不會處於一個糟糕的境地然後又回落。

So that's my expectation.

這就是我的期望。

In terms of US Consumer Bank, in 2026, you're going to have those two offsetting effects.

就美國消費銀行而言，到 2026 年，你將會感受到這兩種抵銷效應。

As Venkat said, you're going to have a gain on sale and you're going to have a more immediate impact from loss of volume.

正如 Venkat 所說，您將獲得銷售額的收益，並且您將受到銷售損失的更直接影響。

I'm not going to guide you to a 2027 RoTE at this point.

目前我還不會指導你實現 2027 年的 RoTE。

I would just make a few points.

我只想談幾點。

Firstly, we're confident in our ability to regain volume both organically and inorganically.

首先，我們對透過有機和無機方式恢復產量的能力充滿信心。

Secondly, I'd just remind you of what Venkat said in his remarks where he talked about American Airline was an incredibly important partner for us.

其次，我只想提醒你文卡特在他的演講中所說的，美國航空是我們非常重要的合作夥伴。

But in terms of risk-adjusted returns, it's a lower part of our portfolio.

但從風險調整後的報酬來看，它在我們的投資組合中所佔比例較低。

And we will continue to really focus on the things that I talked about in terms of cost efficiency, in terms of capital efficiency, in terms of NIM.

我們將繼續真正關注我所談到的成本效率、資本效率和淨利息收益率 (NIM) 方面的問題。

So let me give you an example on cost efficiency.

讓我舉一個關於成本效益的例子。

So the digitization, if you like, of US cards.

如果你願意的話，你可以將美國信用卡數位化。

So as customers interact with us in a retail business, clearly, we want a large portion of that to be digital.

因此，當客戶在零售業務中與我們互動時，顯然我們希望其中很大一部分是數位化的。

In US cards, that's low 90s.

在美國，這個數字是 90 年代初期。

If I compare that to either BUK or indeed the German cards business that we've just sold, that was high 90s.

如果我將其與 BUK 或我們剛剛出售的德國卡片業務進行比較，那麼價格是 90 多美元。

So we do feel we've got good opportunities here to continue to streamline the business.

因此，我們確實覺得這裡有很好的機會來繼續精簡業務。

Jason Napier from UBS.

瑞銀的 Jason Napier。

Two questions on -- firstly, on cards and then secondly, on the Tesco Bank acquisition.

我有兩個問題：首先是關於信用卡的問題，其次是關於樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank) 的收購。

There's a lot of focus on cards and whether Barclays is the right owner for the asset given the differential in capital loading that you are going to be having at some point.

人們非常關注信用卡，並考慮到您在某個時間點將會遇到的資本負荷差異，巴克萊銀行是否是該資產的合適所有者。

So one of the benefits is that the IB carries less capital because of the stress losses that the card business helps protect the unit from.

因此，其中一個好處是，由於信用卡業務有助於保護 IB 部門免受壓力損失，因此 IB 的資本佔用會減少。

Can you give us some concrete sense as to how much of a saving that is?

您能具體告訴我們能省多少錢嗎？

I think it's a really important part of the debate, helped not only by what it means for you, but also by the excitement about easier stress tests in the US at some point, we'll see how that goes.

我認為這是辯論中非常重要的一部分，不僅因為它對你來說意義重大，而且還因為人們對美國在某些時候簡化壓力測試感到興奮，我們將拭​​目以待。

Secondly, on Tesco Bank, it came in at about a 90% indicated cost-income ratio.

其次，樂購銀行（Tesco Bank）的成本收入比約為 90%。

And it looks like from Slide 47, if I'm reading it correctly, it doesn't actually contribute to a lower cost income ratio to the end of '26.

如果我沒看錯的話，從第 47 張投影片來看，它實際上並沒有導致到 26 年底成本收入比降低。

Is that right?

是嗎？

Or is that part of the efficiency gains?

還是這是效率提升的一部分？

And maybe you could just talk about how much pre-provision profit do you think it can make -- there was a deployment of capital, it felt like a cost takeout story in the beginning.

也許您可以談談您認為它可以賺取多少撥備前利潤——有一個資本部署，一開始感覺像是一個成本削減的故事。

It's no longer that.

現在已經不再是這樣了。

If you could just talk about how much profit do you think it might generate once you're done?

您能否談談一旦完成，您認為它可能產生多少利潤？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll take the first one, let Anna take the second one.

我拿第一個，請安娜拿第二個。

So I think the easiest way for you to see it.

所以我認為這對你來說是最簡單的方式。

Obviously, it's under current rules is to look at the CCAR results of the top banks in the US and look both at our initial level of capital, which we keep and look at the drawdown and compare it to banks who don't have that kind of a credit card or a retail consumer portfolio in the mix.

顯然，根據現行規則，我們要查看美國頂級銀行的 CCAR 結果，同時查看我們的初始資本水平（我們保留這些資本），並查看提取情況，並將其與沒有此類信用卡或零售消費者投資組合的銀行進行比較。

Now scenarios vary from year to year and so on.

現在情況每年都不同，等等。

So you have to look at it for a few years, but you will get a sense of the benefit.

因此你必須觀察幾年，你就會感受到它的好處。

And I think it is an important regulatory benefit for us to have it in the stress test.

我認為將其納入壓力測試對我們來說是一項重要的監管優勢。

It's under current rules right?

這是按照現行規則進行的吧？

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

I'll take the second one.

我要第二個。

So you're right.

所以你是對的。

Tesco has got a high-cost income ratio around 90%.

Tesco的成本收入比高達90%左右。

And I think that reflects in and of itself, it's lack of scale as a stand-alone business.

我認為這本身就反映出它作為獨立企業缺乏規模。

So I think our view is as follows.

所以我認為我們的觀點如下。

This is -- it actually still is a cost take-out story, but this is a complex integration.

這實際上仍然是一個成本削減的故事，但這是一個複雜的整合。

It's not like a portfolio and asset runoff.

這不像是投資組合和資產流失。

It's a growing business, an active business and credit cards have a daily and digital interaction with the customers.

這是一項不斷發展、活躍的業務，信用卡與客戶進行日常數位互動。

So actually, it's quite a complex piece of work.

所以實際上，這是一項相當複雜的工作。

But we are confident that we can do it, and we can -- we're confident that we can execute it well.

但我們有信心可以做到，而且我們可以——我們有信心可以很好地執行它。

But it doesn't happen as quickly as if, for example, we bought a mortgage portfolio.

但這種情況不會像我們購買抵押貸款組合那樣迅速發生。

And that's really what you're seeing here.

這確實就是您在這裡看到的。

Our expectation that this is RoTE accretive to BUK and indeed, the group hasn't changed.

我們預期這將使 BUK 的 RoTE 增值，事實上，該集團並未改變。

Typically, I would expect the cost income ratio of an unsecured business to be relatively low, certainly lower than BUK as a whole.

通常，我預期無擔保業務的成本收入比相對較低，肯定低於 BUK 整體。

And if you want a good indication, look at where we're trying to get the USCB business too.

如果你想要一個好的跡象，看看我們也在努力讓 USCB 業務發展到什麼程度。

So hopefully, that gives you some indication.

希望這能給你一些啟發。

But you're going to see an increase in '25, both from the operational cost, if you like, the deal running some investment in integration, you'll start to see some efficiencies flow through in 2026.

但是，如果你願意的話，你會看到25年的營運成本會增加，交易在整合方面進行了一些投資，你會在2026年開始看到一些效率的提升。

But as Venkat said, the real scaling and the real unlocking of that value will come somewhat beyond '26.

但正如 Venkat 所說，真正擴大和釋放這一價值還需要等到 2026 年以後。

But that's included in all of the targets that we have given you for BUK and for the group.

但這包括在我們為 BUK 和該組織制定的所有目標中。

Yeah, Ken.

是的，肯。

Yeah, two questions.

是的，兩個問題。

The first one is regarding the fixed income business.

第一個是關於固定收益業務。

You discussed around the market share gains in equities.

您討論了股票市場份額的成長。

And I just want to understand a little bit where are you on the market share gains on fixed income.

我只是想稍微了解一下您在固定收益市場的市佔率成長情況。

If you can talk a little bit about what has to happen for that to come through?

您能否稍微談一談要實現這一目標需要做些什麼呢？

And then secondly, just getting back to Tesco Bank.

其次，回到樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank)。

I mean for me, what's more interesting is actually the customers that you gain.

對我來說，更有趣的其實是你獲得的客戶。

So can you talk a little bit about the 3 million roughly active customers in terms of overlap, but also the 20 million club card customers, what is really the opportunity in terms of data that you're getting in the long term?

那麼，您能否從重疊的角度談談大約 300 萬活躍客戶，以及 2000 萬俱樂部卡客戶，從長期來看，您在數據方面真正獲得的機會是什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Let me take the first one, and Anna can take the second one.

讓我拿第一個，安娜可以拿第二個。

So within fixed income, we've had three focus -- we've had two focus areas.

因此，在固定收益方面，我們有三個重點──兩個重點領域。

One is securitized products, and the other was European rates.

一個是證券化產品，一個是歐洲利率。

And I think it's fair to say securitized products did well through the year.

我認為可以公平地說，證券化產品在去年表現良好。

Credit, which has been a historical great strength of ours, it was a smaller part of the overall wallet last year as spreads remained both subdued and tight.

信貸一直是我們歷史上的一大強項，但去年由於利差維持在較低水平且較小，信貸在整體支出中所佔的比例較小。

And then the third thing is that European rates started picking up only later in the year as did macro overall.

第三件事是，歐洲利率在今年稍晚才開始上升，宏觀經濟整體也是如此。

So when we look and we give you the market share, there are two ways we look at it.

因此，當我們觀察並向您提供市場份額時，我們會從兩個角度來看待它。

One is the market share number, which we give, which is we take us on the top 9 other banks, 10 banks total and look at what our proportion was.

一個是我們給的市佔率數字，也就是我們與其他 9 家銀行（總共 10 家銀行）進行比較，看看我們的比例是多少。

And that's always a little bit of noise in it because we are not in commodities.

因為我們不從事商品貿易，所以這其中總是會有些噪音。

That's part of the number.

這是數字的一部分。

There are certain regional exposures we don't have, especially in Asia.

有一些區域我們沒有涉足，特別是在亞洲。

But the other number which we look at is our penetration of our top 100 clients.

但我們關注的另一個數字是我們對前 100 名客戶的滲透率。

So we are number six markets business and number six investment bank.

因此，我們是第六大市場企業和第六大投資銀行。

So we ask off that top 100, how many of them are we number five with, right?

所以，我們問一下，在前 100 名中，有多少人是排名第五的，對嗎？

So one step higher.

因此更上一層樓。

And in that, that number, which we began at 49 in '23 and want to be at 70 by '26, we've moved from 49 to 56.

我們在 2023 年時以 49 為起點，希望到 2026 年能達到 70，而現在我們已經從 49 上升到了 56。

So I take comfort from looking at that data with those clients in the things we do.

因此，在與客戶一起開展工作時，查看這些數據讓我感到很欣慰。

But of course, I want to see a broader improvement in fixed income.

但當然，我希望看到固定收益領域有更廣泛的改善。

I'm confident, as I said earlier, because I think this is our strength.

正如我之前所說，我很有信心，因為我認為這是我們的優勢。

And we have strong structural presence and cyclicality when it come -- place to our trends will help us.

當談到趨勢時，我們具有強大的結構性和週期性，這將對我們有所幫助。

On Tesco, I think we'd agree with you.

關於樂購 (Tesco)，我想我們會同意你的看法。

It's an exciting opportunity.

這是一個令人興奮的機會。

And I think that comes in a number of parts.

我認為這涉及多個部分。

When we look at the customers, obviously, with 20 million Clubcard customers, that's broadly the scale that we have in our UK retail bank.

當我們看客戶時，顯然，2,000 萬 Clubcard 客戶大致就是我們英國零售銀行的規模。

It's inevitable, given the population of the UK that there will be some overlap between them.

考慮到英國的人口，兩者之間不可避免地會存在一些重疊。

That said, we see the opportunity to build and grow this business.

也就是說，我們看到了建立和發展這項業務的機會。

And what's interesting here is our ability to use more than one brand in these markets that we haven't previously done to target different demographics and launch different products.

有趣的是，我們能夠在這些市場中使用多個品牌，這是我們以前沒有做過的，以針對不同的人群並推出不同的產品。

So we're very thoughtful of that.

所以我們對此非常深思熟慮。

But I'd encourage you to think about Tesco a bit more holistically than just those customers and what we can do with them because it speaks to a much bigger part of the BUK strategy, which is one, which is more multi-brands, more partnership led.

但我鼓勵您更全面地考慮樂購，而不僅僅是那些客戶以及我們能為他們做些什麼，因為它代表了 BUK 策略的更大一部分，即更多品牌、更多合作夥伴主導的策略。

So we talked when we bought Tesco about leveraging the capability that we have from US cards and bringing it to the UK.

因此，當我們收購樂購時，我們談到了利用美國卡的功能並將其帶到英國。

You're now seeing that both in terms of Avios and Tesco and Amazon.

現在您可以看到 Avios、Tesco 和 Amazon 都存在這樣的情況。

So more of a partnership focus in the UK that really helps us grow and diversify that cards business, but also more broadly across the bank, we've always operated as a single brand.

因此，在英國，我們更加重視合作夥伴關係，這確實有助於我們發展和多樣化信用卡業務，而且在整個銀行範圍內，我們一直以單一品牌運作。

Now we've got Kensington; now we've got Tesco, et cetera, et cetera.

現在我們有了肯辛頓；現在我們有了樂購（Tesco）等等。

So it's much more holistic.

因此它更加全面。

The other thing I would say is that in buying Tesco, we've actually acquired some very good capability that we can take back into the core BUK business.

我想說的另一件事是，透過收購樂購，我們實際上獲得了一些非常好的能力，可以將其帶回核心的 BUK 業務。

And one of the things I'd really call out there is an open market loans capability that we didn't really have.

我真正要指出的一點是，我們實際上缺乏公開市場貸款能力。

And actually, Tesco does extremely well.

事實上，樂購 (Tesco) 的表現非常出色。

So there are multiple points of leverage here.

因此這裡有多個槓桿點。

Yeah, good morning both, It's Jonathan Pierce from Jefferies.

是的，兩位早安，我是傑富瑞的喬納森·皮爾斯。

Can I ask two questions, maybe one for each of you.

我可以問兩個問題嗎？

Anna, the base rate sensitivity table on slide 71 is helpful.

安娜，投影片 71 的基準利率敏感度表很有幫助。

Thank you splitting out the impact of base rate cuts or moves in the curve more generally into swaps and manage margin.

謝謝您將基準利率下調或曲線變動的影響更普遍地分解為掉期和管理保證金。

The managed margin piece, though, is extremely small.

然而，管理利潤部分非常小。

I mean I think we could work that out from the previous disclosure.

我的意思是，我認為我們可以從先前的披露中解決這個問題。

Year one at GBP30 million, I'm assuming that's GBP20 million of gaping negative.

第一年的金額為 3000 萬英鎊，我估計這將是 2000 萬英鎊的負數。

But then we moved to GBP10 million as a sort of ongoing hit from a 25 basis point rate cut.

但隨後，我們轉向 1000 萬英鎊，作為 25 個基點降息的持續打擊。

Why is it so small?

為什麼這麼小？

And maybe you could tell us what the pass-through assumption is behind that GBP10 million.

也許您可以告訴我們這 1000 萬英鎊背後的傳遞假設是什麼。

That would be question one.

這是第一個問題。

Question two, slightly longer-term one for Venkat.

第二個問題，對 Venkat 來說是一個稍微長期的問題。

Where do you see the return on tangible equity going in this business in the medium term?

您認為中期來看該業務的有形資產報酬率將會如何？

I know it's in the report in accounts today that the second year on the trough, we've got a 14% RoTE target to hit the top end of your LTIP awards.

我知道今天的財務報告顯示，在低谷的第二年，我們的目標是 14% 的 RoTE，以達到 LTIP 獎勵的最高限度。

That's now average across 26, 27.

目前這是 26、27 年的平均值。

Is that where you sort of see this business potentially going in the medium term?

您是否認為這項業務在中期內有這樣的發展潛力？

And a part two to question two, the dividend -- your dividend has been sub-10p for nearly two decades now.

第二個問題的第二部分是股息——近二十年來，你們的股息一直低於 10 便士。

The payout ratio to your targets next year is going to be sub 20%.

明年你的目標股利將低於20%。

Are we looking at a dramatic increase in the dividend payout ratio into 2027, please?

我們是否預期 2027 年股利支付率將大幅增加？

Thank you.

謝謝。

You want to take the first and the third, and I'll come back in the middle.

你想走第一和第三，我會在中間回來。

Okay.

好的。

Why not?

為什麼不呢？

Okay.

好的。

Can we go to slide 71, please.

請翻到第 71 張投影片好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So just for those of you who don't go that far in the pack, we've split out, and I hope it is helpful, the impact of a 25 basis point parallel shift in the curve between two imparts.

因此，對於那些在群體中走得還不夠遠的人來說，我們已經將其分開，我希望這會有所幫助，即兩次傳遞之間曲線 25 個基點平行移動的影響。

The top is the swap rates for that, I think the impact in structural hedge.

最重要的是掉期利率，我認為這對結構性避險有影響。

That's why it builds over many years.

這就是它歷經多年建設的原因。

And then the bottom is the base rates.

底部是基本利率。

And there, what you have is two impacts in year one.

因此，第一年就會產生兩種影響。

You have a timing impact.

你會產生時間方面的影響。

And then on a longer-term basis, you have a pass-through impact, which is what Jonathan is asking about.

從長期來看，你會產生傳遞影響，這正是喬納森所問的。

The reason that the numbers on the bottom there are so small is because of the proportion that we hedge.

下面的數字這麼小的原因是因為我們對沖的比例。

And actually, if you compare this version to the version that we had earlier in the year, you'll see that our sensitivity has increased.

實際上，如果將此版本與今年早些時候的版本進行比較，您會發現我們的敏感度有所提高。

And the reason it's increased is obviously because we've reduced the scale of the hedge as the year has progressed.

而其增加的原因顯然是因為我們隨著時間的推移減少了對沖的規模。

So that is increasing our relative -- or absolute sensitivity.

因此，這增加了我們的相對或絕對敏感度。

But we think that we are still relatively insensitive just because of the proportion that we hedge.

但我們認為，僅僅因為我們對沖的比例，我們仍然相對不敏感。

Now what we don't call out is a pass-through assumption.

現在我們不提到的是傳遞假設。

But I would guide you that by using this assumption and by using the split that we've given you on BUK deposits, so you could probably come up with a reasonable approximation.

但我會指導您使用這個假設並使用我們在 BUK 存款上給您的分割，這樣您可能會得出一個合理的近似值。

Venkat?

文卡特？

Dividend?

股利？

Nope, you go next to dividend.

不，接下來您要獲得股息。

All right.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

So first of all, I think, as we've said, on 2026, is not an endpoint.

首先，我認為，正如我們所說，2026 年並不是終點。

It's a sort of a way point on the journey.

它是旅途中的一個路標。

So when you look at the business beyond 2026, what I would hope is that if we've got the businesses -- the lower returning businesses, such as the investment bank and the US cards business to at 12%.

因此，當你展望 2026 年以後的業務時，我希望的是，如果我們擁有這些業務——回報率較低的業務，例如投資銀行和美國信用卡業務，那麼回報率將達到 12%。

And we maintain the higher return businesses at their roughly 20%-ish range of Barclays UK and the corporate banks, a little less private banking.

我們將英國巴克萊銀行和企業銀行的較高回報率業務維持在 20% 左右，私人銀行業務的回報率略低。

There's a little more.

還有一點。

And we continue to grow them, that proportionate mix would have a play into ultimately what the RoTE of the business should be, which I would hope is higher, not just because it would allow me to get more of my compensation plan, as you mentioned, but because I think that takes advantage of the full potential of the business.

我們會繼續發展這些資產，這種比例組合最終會對企業的 RoTE 產生影響，我希望這個數字會更高，這不僅是因為正如您所說，這樣我就可以獲得更多的薪酬計劃，還因為我認為這可以充分發揮企業的潛力。

It's a calculation which we will have to come back to because right now, we are focused on 2026, right?

我們必須重新進行計算，因為現在我們的重點是 2026 年，對嗎？

But I do think, and I would hope that what we are building is a bank, that's much more strongly performing well beyond 2026, that this is not a limit of our ambition.

但我確實認為，我希望我們正在建造的是一家在 2026 年後表現更強勁的銀行，這並不是我們雄心壯志的極限。

Our ambition grows and for what we achieve for ourselves, for our customers and for you, our shareholders.

我們的目標越來越遠大，我們為自己、為客戶、為股東取得了越來越多的成就。

So let me take the third point.

讓我來談談第三點。

I think -- I mean, I'll start by just reiterating what Venkat said at the beginning, which is how important we realize shareholder return is.

我認為——我的意思是，我首先要重申 Venkat 一開始所說的話，那就是我們意識到股東回報有多重要。

And you should just reflect on our capital priorities, which are regulation first, distribution second, investment in our businesses third.

你應該反思我們的資本優先事項，那就是監管第一，分銷第二，業務投資第三。

The way we think about it and the conversations that we certainly had with our shareholders are really about total return, and that's our current focus.

我們對此的看法以及我們與股東進行的對話實際上都與總回報有關，這也是我們當前的重點。

We're pleased to see that total return go up by 5% year on year.

我們很高興看到總回報率同比增長了5％。

As you can imagine, we do have conversations with our investors about this, and we're committed to the greater than 10%.

你可以想像，我們確實與我們的投資者就此事進行了對話，並且我們致力於實現超過 10% 的成長。

But at this point in time, it feels like the right formulation.

但就目前而言，我感覺這個表達是正確的。

Yeah, in the center.

是的，在中心。

Good morning.

早安.

It's Chris Cant from Autonomous.

我是 Autonomous 公司的 Chris Cant。

I had a couple on RWAs, please, and then one on head office.

我有幾個關於 RWA 的，還有一個關於總部的。

So on slide 45, you present your RoTE and you gave us the similar slide last year.

因此，在第 45 張投影片上，您展示了您的 RoTE，並且去年您給了我們類似的幻燈片。

You've got a 1.3% headwind in there over the two-year period from RWA growth.

在兩年期間，風險加權資產成長面臨 1.3% 的阻力。

But obviously, some of the regulatory impacts have been pushed back your American Airlines card book is coming out.

但顯然，一些監管影響已被推遲，您的美國航空卡簿即將面世。

And essentially, I think you're probably going to undershoot your RWA growth target for US cards.

本質上，我認為您可能會達不到美國信用卡的 RWA 成長目標。

Why hasn't that RWA headwind come down relative to where you were last year?

與去年相比，為什麼 RWA 逆風還沒有減弱呢？

So in the equivalent bridge, ['24 to '26], a year ago, you said greater than 1% headwind from RWAs.

因此，在一年前的等效橋樑 ['24 至 '26] 中，您說來自 RWA 的逆風超過 1%。

Now you're saying less than -- I think it's less than 1.3% if I add those together.

現在您說的是少於——如果我把它們加在一起的話，我認為少於 1.3%。

So it seems to have gone up despite the fact the RWA growth outlook looks better.

因此，儘管 RWA 成長前景看起來更好，但似乎還是上漲了。

What's going on there?

那兒發生什麼事了？

Are we missing something because the reg headwinds have been pushed further into the future?

由於監管阻力被進一步推向未來，我們是否錯過了什麼？

So it's now a 1.3% reduction here from RWAs in the RoTE bridge.

因此，現在 RoTE 橋中的 RWA 減少了 1.3%。

And it was greater than 1% a year ago.

而一年前這一比例還超過1%。

So it looks like it's got worse despite the fact the RWA growth should be less.

因此，儘管 RWA 增長應該較低，但情況似乎變得更糟了。

So if you could speak to that.

如果你能談一下這個問題。

And sort of related on the deregulatory point, FRTB, I don't think you've ever given us a number, a lot of your wholesale banking peers in Europe to give us a number now.

關於放鬆管制的問題，FRTB，我認為您從來沒有給我們一個數字，但是歐洲的許多批發銀行同行現在都給了我們一個數字。

Obviously, that's an area that may never happen.

顯然，這是一個可能永遠不會發生的領域。

So if you could give us a sense of that, that would be helpful to understand the RWA trajectory.

因此，如果您能讓我們了解這一點，這將有助於我們理解 RWA 的發展軌跡。

And then the general one is head office.

然後一般的是總部。

It's been incredibly difficult to model because there's been so much going on.

由於發生了很多事情，建模變得異常困難。

It feels like it's a bit cleaner this year.

感覺今年乾淨了一些。

I think it's a big driver of the range we see in your consensus.

我認為這是我們在共識中看到的範圍的一個重要驅動因素。

Could you give us an indication of what you think that looks like?

您能否告訴我們您認為它是什麼樣子的？

And I completely appreciate.

我非常感激。

It's always a mess because there's always odds and sods in there.

它總是一片混亂，因為裡面總是堆滿了零碎東西。

But putting those to one side, what do you think sort of underlying head office income and costs are to help us corral consensus on to something more sensible Thank you.

但拋開這些不談，您認為總部的基本收入和成本如何幫助我們就更合理的問題達成共識？

Shall I do FRTB and you do the rest?

我做 FRTB 而你做其餘的事好嗎？

But you can start.

但你可以開始。

Okay.

好的。

So on your RWA points, our expectation is no different really around RWAs.

因此，對於您的 RWA 點數，我們的期望與 RWA 並沒有什麼不同。

There's a timing point clearly in terms of the timing of Basel.

就巴塞爾的時間安排而言，顯然有一個時間點。

But this chart is based on our plans to deploy GBP30 billion of RWAs in the UK and hold the investment bank flat.

但這張圖表是基於我們在英國部署 300 億英鎊的風險加權資產並保持投資銀行平穩的計劃。

So I think if there are more technical questions, we can come back to you on it, and I'll ask Marina to pick up after the event.

因此，我認為如果還有更多技術問題，我們可以再向您諮詢，我會讓瑪麗娜在活動結束後繼續回答。

Venkat, FRTB?

Venkat，FRTB？

Yeah.

是的。

Look, you're right that there are some people who have given it.

你看，你說得對，確實有人給了。

We are looking at either UK implementation, what we think we have already done in market risk capital calculations.

我們正在研究英國的實施情況，我們認為我們已經在市場風險資本計算中完成了這些工作。

And so we don't have the specific information right now to be able to make judgment.

因此，我們目前還沒有具體的資訊來做出判斷。

But we think, as we've said for '24 to '26, overall, we are keeping investment banking RWAs flat.

但我們認為，正如我們所說的 2024 年至 2026 年那樣，總體而言，我們將保持投資銀行 RWA 平穩。

In that, we said last year that there would be an absorption of about GBP15 billion to GBP16 billion of RWAs that came from a variety of things, including FRTB, right?

我們去年就說過，將吸收約 150 億至 160 億英鎊來自各種事物（包括 FRTB）的 RWA，對嗎？

We are not changing from that view.

我們不會改變這個觀點。

I think it's gone off back.

我認為它已經消失了。

In terms of the GBP3 billion to GBP10 billion range on Basel 3.1, is that GBP7 billion, FRTB is a big chunk of that variance FRTB?

就巴塞爾協議 3.1 中的 30 億英鎊到 100 億英鎊範圍而言，70 億英鎊的 FRTB 是否佔該方差 FRTB 的很大一部分？

Or is that residual uncertainty because I would have thought you've now got final rules in the UK?

還是這是殘留的不確定性，因為我以為你們現在已經在英國有了最終規則？

So what drives the range?

那麼，是什麼推動了這個範圍呢？

So you've got final rules in the UK.

因此，英國已經制定了最終規則。

You don't have a date yet, of course.

當然，你還沒有確定約會。

But it's also -- there's a little bit of modeling uncertainty and just -- and implementation on the portfolio.

但它也存在一些建模不確定性以及投資組合的實作。

So I wouldn't say all of it is FRTB.

所以我不會說所有這些都是 FRTB。

Yes.

是的。

Don't assume that the GBP7 billion is FRTB in or out variance.

不要假設 70 億英鎊是 FRTB 的進出變異數。

As Venkat said, it's much more reflective of -- we continue to refine our modelling, Chris.

正如 Venkat 所說，這更能反映出——我們將繼續完善我們的模型，Chris。

So at this point in time, we're reacting to the rules that we have and expect to implement them in full and the GBP3 billion to GBP10 billion reflects that.

因此，目前，我們正在對現有的規則做出反應，並希望全面實施這些規則，30億至100億英鎊的金額就反映了這一點。

Just coming back to head office.

剛回到總部。

So I recognize the fact it's been very difficult to interpret and model as we've gone through 2025 -- 2024.

因此，我認識到，當我們經歷 2025 年至 2024 年時，解釋和建模是非常困難的。

I mean you've had German cards coming out -- well going in and then coming out, same with Italian mortgages.

我的意思是，德國的信用卡已經發行了，然後又發行了，義大利的房貸也是一樣的。

So it has been very complex.

所以情況非常複雜。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

I won't give you a number for going forward but let me tell you how I think about it.

我不會給你一個未來的數字，但讓我告訴你我對此的看法。

There's going to be a few things which will be stable in during evergreen, at least for the foreseeable future.

至少在可預見的未來，有些事情在常青期間會保持穩定。

So within there, you've got the costs that truly relate to the group, and you've got some costs that relate to some legacy treasury funding.

因此，在其中，你會得到真正與集團相關的成本，以及一些與一些遺留財務資金相關的成本。

For the moment, we also have our merchant acquiring business in there.

目前，我們在那裡也有商家收單業務。

Those three things are going to be relatively stable throughout the period.

在整個時期內，這三件事將會保持相對穩定。

Then there are things in there which are inherently more volatile and in part, that's why they're there.

然後，那裡面有些東西本質上就更加不穩定，部分地，這就是它們存在的原因。

So the first of those is hedge accounting.

其中第一個就是套期會計。

So that's essentially where we're offsetting the fair value of a hedged item with the fair value of the hedge itself.

所以這本質上就是我們用對沖項目的公允價值與對沖本身的公允價值來抵銷。

Sometimes they don't entirely offset and where there's leakage, it goes to P&L.

有時它們並不能完全抵消，而如果有洩漏，則會進入損益表。

Actually, that was quite significant in Q4, and it probably explains the income swing between Q3 and Q4.

實際上，這在第四季度相當顯著，這可能解釋了第三季和第四季之間的收入波動。

It's broadly neutral over time.

隨著時間的推移，它大致保持中性。

It's just timing, but it can be volatile.

這只是時機問題，但它可能會不穩定。

The second thing that you do see in there is where we've got any marks on our principal investments, that tends to be a bit smaller.

您在這裡看到的第二件事是，我們的主要投資記錄往往要小一些。

And then the third thing in there will be if we are carrying any litigation or conduct that relates to a business that we are no longer active in.

第三件事是，我們是否正在進行任何與我們不再活躍的業務有關的訴訟或行為。

So that's why meta finances in there.

這就是為什麼有元金融在這裡。

So as this settles down, Chris, we'll talk to you more about it.

所以，當這件事平息下來後，克里斯，我們會和你進一步討論這件事。

But at the moment, that's the sort of broad guidance I would give you.

但目前，這就是我能給你的廣泛指引。

Any more?

還有嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

It's Ellie from KW.

我是來自 KW 的 Ellie。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I've got two, both on IB numbers, if that's okay.

我有兩個，都是 IB 號碼，如果可以的話。

So first is risk weighted assets, which decreased to 56% of the group from 58%, and that includes Tesco acquisition.

首先是風險加權資產，其佔集團的比例從 58% 下降到 56%，其中包括對 Tesco 的收購。

So in terms of the target, how should we think about the evolution to 50% by the end of '26?

那麼從目標而言，我們應該如何考慮在 26 年底前達到 50% 的演變呢？

And what exactly is the step down here?

那這裡的步驟到底是什麼呢？

And then just in terms of modeling, is the GBP199 billion the new level of numbers we should be using going forward or are we expecting it back to, say, '23 level, which is GBP197 billion?

那麼從建模的角度來看，1990 億英鎊是我們未來應該使用的新數字水平嗎，還是我們預計它會回到 23 年的水平，即 1970 億英鎊？

And that's my first question, just with two parts.

這是我的第一個問題，分成兩個部分。

And second is on RoTE.

第二是關於 RoTE。

So to hit the RoTE expectation, which is in line with the group more than 12%, it needs to improve earnings by about 23% without more capital.

因此，為了達到符合集團12%以上的RoTE預期，該公司需要在不增加資本的情況下將收益提高約23%。

I'm just wondering how exactly are you going to achieve that?

我只是想知道你究竟要如何實現這個目標？

And I know you mentioned more stabilized revenue and disciplined costs.

我知道您提到了更穩定的收入和更嚴格的成本。

But are there any other areas that you're focused on that we should be aware of?

但是，您所關注的其他領域是否值得我們關注呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Do you want to take the first one, I'll take the second one.

你要拿第一個嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

And I can answer the second one, if you wish.

如果您願意的話，我可以回答第二個問題。

So on the capital number, so getting to 50% is as we set out last year release.

就資本數字而言，達到 50% 是我們去年發布的目標。

So we expect the IB to be broadly stable.

因此我們預計 IB 將整體保持穩定。

I would say FX is going to move that around, as you've seen from Q2 to Q3 to Q4, but broadly stable around GBP200 billion mark.

我想說外匯將會發生變動，正如你從第二季到第三季再到第四季所看到的那樣，但總體上會穩定在 2000 億英鎊左右。

Remember that about 50% to 60% of our IB revenues are in US dollars.

請記住，我們的 IB 收入中約有 50% 到 60% 是以美元計算的。

So FX does make that number move around.

因此 FX 確實會使該數字變動。

But just to remind you, you then got earnings and RWAs moving together.

但需要提醒您的是，您的收益和 RWA 是一起變動的。

So even though those RWAs are going up and down with FX, I wouldn't expect that to have an impact on capital generation.

因此，即使這些風險加權資產隨著外匯而上下波動，我也不認為這會對資本產生影響。

So that would be the first piece.

這就是第一部分。

In terms of the overall sort of trajectory to 50%, it's holding that piece stable and continuing to grow in those three focused UK businesses.

就整體 50% 的成長軌跡而言，該公司保持了穩定，並繼續在位於英國的三家重點企業中成長。

I mean you've seen us come out of 2024 with some degree of acceleration.

我的意思是，您已經看到我們在 2024 年後取得了一定程度的加速。

You should expect that to accelerate over the period.

您應該可以預見，這個過程將會在一段時間內加速。

So you might see slightly more in '26 than you see in '25.

因此，你在 26 年看到的可能會比 25 年看到的稍微多一點。

But we will report to you as we have done along the way with the equivalent of Slide 14, so you can see that progression.

但我們將像往常一樣，使用與幻燈片 14 相同的內容向您報告，以便您可以看到這一進展。

Why don't I start with some maths, and then I'll hand over to Venkat.

我先做些數學題，然後再交給 Venkat。

Just in terms of the IB RoTE, I mean, simplistically, it's gone from 7% to 8.5%.

就 IB RoTE 而言，簡單地說，它從 7% 上升到了 8.5%。

It's gone up by 1.5%.

上漲了 1.5%。

We recognize the 3.5% at least to go.

我們認識到至少還有3.5%的差距。

So we're very conscious of that and that comes in a number of parts.

因此，我們非常清楚這一點，並且這體現在多個方面。

The first is clearly revenue and Venkat talked about having delivered GBP0.6 billion of our GBP1.8 billion around our focused businesses.

首先顯然是收入，Venkat 表示我們已經為重點業務實現了 18 億英鎊中的 6 億英鎊的收入。

So revenue growth is important here, and we're very focused on the things that we can control, and those areas are focused not only within markets, but the IB.

因此，收入成長在這裡很重要，我們非常關注我們能夠控制的事情，這些領域不僅關注市場，還關注 IB。

The second is revenue stability.

第二是收入穩定。

And the reason this is important is we won an IB here, which can deliver in lots of different environments.

這很重要，因為我們在這裡贏得了 IB，它可以在許多不同的環境中交付。

So we think of financing, and we think of the ICB as balanced within our investment banking revenue.

因此，我們考慮融資，並認為 ICB 與我們的投資銀行收入是平衡的。

So that's also important.

所以這也很重要。

If you take those two together, the third thing that's important is capital discipline.

如果把這兩者結合起來，第三件重要的事情就是資本紀律。

So for the third year in a row, we've got broadly flat RWAs in the IB.

因此，連續第三年，我們在 IB 中的 RWA 基本上持平。

So we're generating revenue consistently.

因此我們正在持續創造收入。

We're holding that capital flat consistently, and that's why the revenue over RWA has gone up.

我們始終保持資本穩定，這就是 RWA 收入上升的原因。

And then the thing that is most in our control, and I'm talking about it last, but it's not least is costs and cost efficiency.

然後是我們最能控制的事情，我最後談到它，但同樣重要的是成本和成本效率。

So the IB CIR is down by 3 percentage points year on year.

因此，IB CIR 年比下降了 3 個百分點。

It's delivered positive jaws in three quarters out of the last four.

在過去的四個賽季中，有四分之三的球隊取得了積極的成績。

It needs to continue to do so.

它需要繼續這樣做。

It's not going to do so every quarter, but you'd expect it to do it more often than not because we want to get this business to a high 50%s cost income ratio.

它不會每個季度都這樣做，但你會期望它經常這樣做，因為我們希望這項業務的成本收入比達到 50% 的高水準。

But even then, even in '26, it's not going to be top quartile.

但即便如此，即使在 26 年，它也不會進入前四分位數。

So we'll have more opportunity in terms of efficiency from that point.

因此從那時起我們將在效率方面擁有更多的機會。

Venkat?

文卡特？

I cannot improve on that answer.

我無法改進這個答案。

I'll just say one thing, which is that I said last year that this is the hardest part of our journey, what we do with the Investment Bank.

我只想說一件事，那就是我去年說過，這是我們旅程中最艱難的部分，也就是我們在投資銀行所做的事情。

Because, as you said, what we are trying to do is increase revenue, reduce costs, improved capital efficiency, while keeping capital roughly flat, right?

因為正如您所說，我們正在努力做的是增加收入，降低成本，提高資本效率，同時保持資本大致持平，對嗎？

That we have done it in 2024, we are very pleased about, and it gives us the confidence to continue to do it.

我們在2024年完成了這個目標，我們對此感到非常高興，這給了我們繼續這樣做的信心。

And that confidence is what Anna stated in her numbers.

安娜透過她的數字表達出了這種信心。

I think that was it.

我認為就是這樣了。

Amit, right at the back.

阿米特，就在後面。

I didn't see you, Amit.

我沒看見你，阿米特。

Hi, thank you.

你好，謝謝。

It's Amit Goel here from Mediobanca.

我是 Mediobanca 的 Amit Goel。

So two questions.

所以有兩個問題。

One, again, just coming back to broader strategy.

首先，我們再來談談更廣泛的策略。

But I guess just thinking about the world as it is today versus how it was maybe 12 months ago when you were putting the plan together and the kind of opportunity set that you see, it looks like there's perhaps a bit more opportunity in the US.

但我想，只要想想今天的世界與12個月前你制定計劃時的情況以及你所看到的機會，看起來美國可能有更多的機會。

Maybe regulation is a bit slower discussion about growth in the UK relative.

相對於英國，監管方面的討論可能進展得稍微慢一些。

So I appreciate you're executing against the plan that you've laid out just around 12 months ago.

因此，我很欣賞你正在執行你大約 12 個月前製定的計劃。

But curious if you were to rethink about or think about where you would position capital, if you're looking at it today --

但我很好奇，如果你重新思考一下，或者想想你會把資本放在哪裡，如果你現在來看的話——