Barclays PLC (BCS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclays Q3 2024 results analyst and investor conference call.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2024 年第三季業績分析師和投資者電話會議。

I will now hand over to C.S. Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, before I hand over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director.

現在，我將把權力移交給集團執行長 C.S. Venkatakrishnan，然後再交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Barclays' third-quarter 2024 results call.

大家早安，感謝您參加巴克萊 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。

As a reminder, as our investor updates in February, we set out a three-year plan to deliver a better run, more strongly performing and higher return in Barclays.

提醒一下，正如我們在二月向投資者更新的資訊一樣，我們制定了一項三年計劃，以實現巴克萊銀行更好的營運、更強勁的表現和更高的回報。

I am encouraged by our progress three quarters in.

我對我們四分之三以來的進展感到非常鼓舞。

We are continuing to execute in a disciplined way against this plan and are on track to achieve our 2024 as well as our 2026 targets.

我們將繼續嚴格執行該計劃，並預計將實現 2024 年和 2026 年的目標。

Return on tangible equity was 12.3% in the third quarter and 11.5% year-to-date.

第三季有形股本回報率為 12.3%，年初至今為 11.5%。

We achieved this even as we improved tangible book value by GBP0.35 per share year-on-year. to 351p at the end of the quarter.

儘管我們的有形帳面價值比去年同期提高了 0.35 英鎊/股，但我們仍然實現了這一目標。至本季末的 351 便士。

This resulted from strong organic capital generation and the meaningful impact of buybacks in reducing our share count.

這是由於強勁的有機資本產生和回購對減少我們的股份數量的重大影響。

Total income for Q3 was GBP6.5 billion and is GBP19.8 billion year-to-date, with a continued focus on the quality and stability of our income mix.

第三季的總收入為 65 億英鎊，年初至今的總收入為 198 億英鎊，我們繼續關注收入組合的品質和穩定性。

Given the ongoing healthy support from our structural hedge, we remain confident on the strength of the income profile of our business in its falling rate environment.

鑑於我們的結構性對沖持續提供的健康支持，我們對於我們業務在利率下降環境下的收入狀況仍然充滿信心。

These factors lead to our upgrading Barclays UK as well as group NII targets today.

這些因素導致我們今天上調巴克萊英國以及集團 NII 目標。

We continue to control costs well and are seeing the benefits of the cost actions which we took in the fourth quarter of 2023.

我們繼續很好地控製成本，並看到了我們在 2023 年第四季採取的成本行動所帶來的效益。

Our cost-to-income ratio was 61% both in the third quarter and year to date.

我們的成本收入比在第三季和年初至今均為 61%。

Impairment charges have improved in the US consumer bank in line with our expectations. and our overall credit performance was strong, particularly in the UK, with a group loan loss rate of 42 basis points year-to-date and 37 basis points in the quarter.

美國消費銀行的減損費用有所改善，符合我們的預期。我們的整體信貸表現強勁，尤其是在英國，今年迄今的集團貸款損失率為 42 個基點，本季為 37 個基點。

Importantly, we also remain well capitalized, ending the quarter with a 13.8% CET1 ratio, comfortably within our target range of 13% to 14%.

重要的是，我們仍保持充足的資本，本季末的 CET1 比率為 13.8%，完全處於我們 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍內。

Across the bank and within each of our five divisions, We are focused on delivering an improved operational and financial performance.

在整個銀行以及我們的五個部門內，我們都致力於提高營運和財務表現。

Anna will take you through our financial performance division by division shortly, but let me cover first a few highlights.

安娜很快就會帶您了解我們各部門的財務業績，但首先讓我介紹幾個亮點。

Barclays UK delivered a return on tangible equity of 23.4% for the quarter and over 20% year-to-date.

巴克萊英國銀行本季有形股本回報率為 23.4%，年初至今回報率超過 20%。

We have seen a continued stabilization in deposit balances and gross lending trends are encouraging.

我們看到存款餘額持續穩定，總貸款趨勢令人鼓舞。

We're on track to complete the acquisition of Tesco Bank on November 1 this year.

我們預計今年 11 月 1 日完成對樂購銀行的收購。

This strategic relationship with the UK's largest retailer forms part of our commitment to invest in our home market, where Barclays has a crucial role to play in mobilizing the finance and investment which is required to deliver growth.

與英國最大零售商建立策略關係是我們投資本土市場承諾的一部分，巴克萊在調動實現成長所需的資金和投資方面發揮著至關重要的作用。

Our partnership with Tesco will help create new distribution channels for our unsecured lending and deposit businesses. and our expertise in partnership cards developed over decades in the US will further enhance the well-established Tesco Club Card Quality Scheme.

我們與樂購的合作將有助於為我們的無擔保貸款和存款業務創建新的分銷管道。我們在美國數十年來累積的合作卡專業知識將進一步加強完善的樂購俱樂部卡片品質計畫。

In the investment bank, we are committed to delivering improved RWA and operational productivity to drive higher returns.

在投資銀行，我們致力於提高風險加權資產 (RWA) 和營運效率，以獲得更高的回報。

RoTE for Q3 was 8.8%.

第三季的 RoTE 為 8.8%。

Year-on-year, the investment bank has delivered positive cost-to-income [JOS] and improved market share in investment banking.

與去年同期相比，該投資銀行的成本收入比 [JOS] 呈正成長，投資銀行市佔率也有所提高。

And the US Consumer Bank delivered an improved RoTE performance at 10.9% as we continue to grow the business and drive operational improvement, while impairment charges reduce against the background of subdued inflation and a strong labor market.

由於我們持續發展業務並推動營運改善，美國消費銀行的 RoTE 表現有所改善，達到 10.9%，同時在通膨低迷和勞動力市場強勁的背景下，減損費用減少。

Overall, as an organization, we remain execution-focused.

整體而言，作為一個組織，我們仍然注重執行。

We achieved a further GBP300 million of gross cost savings this quarter, taking the total for the first nine months to GBP700 million, on track for our targeted GBP1 billion for the full year of 2024.

本季度，我們進一步實現了 3 億英鎊的總成本節約，使前九個月的總成本節約達到 7 億英鎊，預計將實現 2024 年全年 10 億英鎊的目標。

Simplifying the bank has been an important part of our strategy.

簡化銀行一直是我們策略的重要組成部分。

We continue to make progress with the non-strategic business disposal that we spoke about at our investor update.

我們在投資者更新中談到的非策略性業務處置方面繼續取得進展。

Earlier this week, we announced the sale of our non-performing Italian mortgage portfolio.

本週早些時候，我們宣佈出售不良的義大利抵押貸款組合。

Finally, we are about two-thirds of the way through executing the GBP750 million share buyback which we announced in the first half of the year, which together with the first half dividend is the first step towards achieving our target of greater than GBP10 billion of capital return by 2026.

最後，我們已完成今年上半年宣布的 7.5 億英鎊股票回購計畫的三分之二，再加上上半年的股息，這是我們實現 2026 年資本回報超過 100 億英鎊目標的第一步。

I will now hand over to Anna to take you through our third-quarter financials.

現在我將交給安娜，讓她向大家介紹我們第三季的財務狀況。

Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Venkat，大家早安。

On slide 6, we have laid out Barclays' financial highlights for the third quarter as well as year-to-date.

在幻燈片 6 上，我們列出了巴克萊銀行第三季以及年初至今的財務亮點。

Profit before tax was GBP2.2 billion, up 18% from GBP1.9 billion in Q3 '23.

稅前利潤為 22 億英鎊，較 23 年第三季的 19 億英鎊成長 18%。

Before going into the detail, I would just note that the quarterly performance was impacted by a weaker US dollar, which is a headwind to income and profits, but positively impacts cost impairment and RWAs.

在詳細介紹之前，我只想指出，季度業績受到美元疲軟的影響，這對收入和利潤造成了阻力，但對成本減損和風險加權資產產生了積極影響。

I'll call these out where appropriate.

我會在適當的時候提及這些。

Turning to slide 7.

翻到幻燈片 7。

Q3 performance is in line with the plan we laid out in February.

第三季的表現與我們二月制定的計劃一致。

We delivered a statutory RoTE of 12.3% up on last year's 11% and the year-to-date RoTE of 11.5% leaves us on track for our statutory RoTE target for 2024 of greater than 10%.

我們實現了 12.3% 的法定股東權益回報率，高於去年的 11%，今年迄今的 11.5% 的股東權益回報率使我們有望實現 2024 年超過 10% 的法定股東權益回報率目標。

We continue to target a 2024 RoTE excluding inorganic activity of circa 10.5%.

我們繼續將 2024 年不包括無機活動在內的 RoTE 目標設定為約 10.5%。

We now expect that the impact of all inorganic activity in 2024, including Tesco Bank, will be broadly neutral.

我們現在預計，包括樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank) 在內的 2024 年所有無機活動的影響將大致保持中性。

So I don't anticipate a material difference between the two measures.

所以我預計這兩項措施之間不會有實質的差異。

As in the first half of the year, I was looking for four things in our performance.

和上半年一樣，我對我們的表現期待四件事。

Income stability, cost discipline and progress on efficiency savings, credit performance, and a robust capital position.

收入穩定、成本紀律、效率節約、信貸表現和穩健的資本狀況。

On all four, we are where we expected to be, and I'll cover these in more detail on the subsequent slides.

就這四個方面而言，我們都達到了預期目標，我將在後續的幻燈片中更詳細地介紹這些目標。

Starting with income on slide 8.

從第 8 張投影片上的收入開始。

Total income was up 5% year-on-year at GBP6.5 billion.

總收入年增 5%，達到 65 億英鎊。

Excluding FX, income was up 7% year-on-year.

除去外匯，營收年增7%。

Since our investor update in February, we have been emphasizing continued stability in our income streams.

自從二月投資人更新以來，我們一直在強調收入來源的持續穩定性。

Revenues from retail and corporate as well as financing in the investment bank provided ballast to our income profile and together contributed 74% of income in Q3.

零售和企業收入以及投資銀行融資為我們的收入狀況提供了支撐，共同貢獻了第三季收入的 74%。

Turning to net interest income on slide 9.

轉向第 9 頁的淨利息收入。

Group NII excluding investment bank and head office was stable year on year at circa GBP2.8 billion.

不包括投資銀行和總部的集團 NII 年比保持穩定，約 28 億英鎊。

We now expect our full year group NII to be greater than GBP11 billion.

我們現在預計全年集團NII將超過110億英鎊。

Within this, we have increased NII guidance for Barclays UK to circa GBP6.5 billion, having previously guided to circa GBP6.3 billion.

在此之中，我們將巴克萊英國的NII指導金額從先前的約63億英鎊提高至約65億英鎊。

Both numbers exclude the impact of the Tesco Bank acquisition.

這兩個數字均不包括樂購銀行收購的影響。

We also now assume a UK bank rate of 4.5% by the end of the year, or a total of 325 basis point cuts in 2024 compared to the 5 we had assumed in February.

我們現在也假設到今年年底英國銀行利率將達到 4.5%，或到 2024 年將總共下調 325 個基點，而我們 2 月假設的下調幅度為 5 個基點。

Deposits continue to stabilize and increased structural hedge income continues to provide a strong tailwind, as you can see on slide 10.

正如您在幻燈片 10 上看到的，存款繼續穩定，結構性對沖收入的增加繼續提供強勁的推動力。

As a reminder, the structural hedge is designed to reduce volatility in NII and manage interest rate risk.

提醒一下，結構性避險旨在降低 NII 的波動性並管理利率風險。

As rates have risen, the hedge has dampened the growth in our NII and in a falling rate environment, we will see the benefit from the protection that it gives us.

隨著利率上升，對沖抑制了我們的NII成長，而在利率下降的環境下，我們將看到它對我們帶來的保護帶來的好處。

The expected NII tailwind from the hedge is significant and predictable.

預期對沖帶來的 NII 順風是巨大且可預測的。

GBP12.4 billion of aggregate gross income is now locked in over the three years to the end of 2026, up from GBP11.7 billion at Q2.

截至 2026 年底的三年內，目前已鎖定 124 億英鎊的總收入，高於第二季的 117 億英鎊。

We have around GBP170 billion of hedges maturing between '24 and '26 at an average yield of 1.5%.

我們有約 1700 億英鎊的對沖資產，將於 24 年至 26 年之間到期，平均收益率為 1.5%。

As we said in February, reinvesting around three quarters of this at around 3.5% would compound over the next three years to increase structural hedge income in 2026 by circa GBP2 billion versus 2023.

正如我們在二月所說的那樣，將其中四分之三左右的資金以 3.5% 左右的利率進行再投資，將在未來三年內產生複合效應，使 2026 年的結構性對沖收入較 2023 年增加約 20 億英鎊。

Given the high proportion of balances hedged and the programmatic approach we take, we are relatively insensitive to the short-term impact of potential rate cuts.

鑑於對沖餘額的比例較高且我們採取的是程序化方式，我們對潛在降息的短期影響相對不敏感。

Please note that we have added additional disclosure on slide 38 in the appendix on the split of the structural hedge income allocation across our five divisions.

請注意，我們在附錄第 38 張投影片中增加了有關我們五個部門之間結構性對沖收入分配的分割的額外揭露。

Moving on to costs on slide 11.

繼續討論第 11 張投影片上的成本。

Total costs in Q3 were flat year-on-year at GBP4 billion.

第三季的總成本與去年同期持平，為 40 億英鎊。

Excluding FX, costs were up 2% in the same period.

除外匯外，同期成本上漲了 2%。

We delivered a further GBP0.3 billion of gross efficiency savings, bringing the total for the nine months to GBP0.7 billion.

我們又實現了 3 億英鎊的總效率節約，使前九個月的總額達到 7 億英鎊。

These efficiencies have helped us to more than offset inflation and created capacity for investment.

這些效率幫助我們抵消了通貨膨脹並創造了投資能力。

We remain on track to deliver GBP1 billion for the year and continue to expect a further GBP1 billion of efficiency savings across 2025 and 2026.

我們仍有望實現今年 10 億英鎊的目標，並繼續預計 2025 年和 2026 年將再實現 10 億英鎊的效率節約。

Our cost-to-income ratio was 61% in Q3 and for the nine months year to date, we remain on track for our full year target of around 63%.

我們的成本收入比在第三季為 61%，今年迄今的九個月裡，我們仍有望實現全年約 63% 的目標。

Turning now to impairment, where credit conditions continue to trend positively and in line with our expectations.

現在談談減損，信用條件持續呈現正向趨勢，符合我們的預期。

The Q3 impairment charge of GBP374 million equated to a loan loss rate of 37 basis points.

第三季的減損費​​用為 3.74 億英鎊，相當於貸款損失率為 37 個基點。

The US consumer bank charge reduced GBP276 million, a loan loss rate of 411 basis points, which benefited from methodology enhancements in the quarter.

美國消費者銀行費用減少了2.76億英鎊，貸款損失率為411個基點，這受益於本季方法論的改進。

Our UK customers continue to act prudently, with few current signs of stress evidenced by continued low and stable delinquencies.

我們的英國客戶繼續採取謹慎行動，目前幾乎沒有壓力跡象，拖欠率持續處於較低且穩定的水平。

The Barclays UK charge was just GBP16 million, a loan loss rate of 3 basis points, and this included a post-model adjustment release of around GBP50 million.

巴克萊英國的收費僅1600萬英鎊，貸款損失率為3個基點，其中包括約5000萬英鎊的模型調整後釋放。

I'd remind you that under IFRS 9 accounting, we expect to incur a day one impairment charge for the Tesco unsecured lending balances on completion in Q4.

我要提醒您的是，根據 IFRS 9 會計準則，我們預計在第四季度完成時對 Tesco 無擔保貸款餘額產生第一天的減損費用。

As we said in February, the Tesco Bank acquisition, alongside our broader UK balance sheet growth plans, are factored into our guidance for the Barclays UK loan loss rate to track towards 35 basis points over the life of our three-year plan.

正如我們在二月份所說的那樣，對樂購銀行的收購，以及我們更廣泛的英國資產負債表增長計劃，都被納入了我們對巴克萊英國貸款損失率的指導中，即在我們三年計劃的實施期內，貸款損失率將趨近於 35 個基點。

All in all, we reiterate our through-the-cycle guidance of 50 to 60 basis points for the group, and expect FY24 to be at the bottom of this range, inclusive of the estimated day one impact of Tesco Bank.

總而言之，我們重申對該集團 50 至 60 個基點的周期指導，並預計 FY24 將處於這個範圍的底部，其中包括 Tesco Bank 預計的第一天影響。

Excluding the impact of Tesco Bank, we would expect to be below this range as we are seeing limited signs of stress in our UK customer base.

排除樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank) 的影響，我們預計會低於這個範圍，因為我們看到英國客戶群的壓力跡像有限。

And our guidance for the US Consumer Bank impairment charge to improve overall in the second half remains unchanged.

我們對美國消費銀行減損費用在下半年整體改善的預期維持不變。

Looking now in more detail at the US consumer bank charge on slide 13.

現在更詳細地看一下第 13 頁的美國消費者銀行收費。

The mix of reserve bills to write-offs within the impairment charge for the US consumer bank continues to trend as we guided.

美國消費者銀行的減損費用與註銷費用的組合持續按照我們的預期趨勢發展。

We expected write-offs to increase during 2024, which you can see is the case from the light blue bars on this page. 30- and 90-day delinquency are broadly stable, and we expect them to follow seasonal trends.

我們預計 2024 年註銷額將會增加，您可以從本頁的淺藍色長條圖中看到這種情況。 30 天和 90 天的拖欠率大致穩定，我們預計它們將遵循季節性趨勢。

There is no change to our impairment guidance.

我們的減損指導沒有變化。

As mentioned, we still expect the US consumer bank impairment charge to improve overall in the second half, resulting in a lower full-year charge in 2024 versus 2023.

如上所述，我們仍預期美國消費銀行減損費用將在下半年整體改善，導致 2024 年全年費用低於 2023 年。

And we continue to guide to a low loss rate, trending towards a long-term average of 400 basis points.

我們將繼續引導低損失率，趨向長期平均 400 個基點。

Our coverage ratios remain strong.

我們的覆蓋率依然強勁。

Our IFRS 9 coverage ratio reduced 70 basis points quarter on quarter to 10.3%, primarily driven by a debt sale, whilst our CECL coverage ratio increased 20 basis points to 8.1%.

我們的 IFRS 9 覆蓋率較上季下降 70 個基點至 10.3%，主要受到債務出售的影響，而我們的 CECL 覆蓋率則上升 20 個基點至 8.1%。

Before going into individual business performance, let me say a few words on the lending trends that we are seeing.

在談論個別業務表現之前，我先來談談我們看到的貸款趨勢。

Gross lending activity is encouraging across our portfolios, reflecting our focus on growth in the UK.

我們投資組合中總貸款活動令人鼓舞，反映了我們對英國成長的關注。

In mortgages, we are seeing a pickup in gross lending, with increased flow in higher loan-to-value lending, and customer confidence is also returning with strong purchase activity from first-time buyers and home movers.

在抵押貸款方面，我們看到總貸款額正在回升，高貸款價值比貸款流量正在增加，而且隨著首次購房者和搬家者的強勁購買活動，客戶信心也在恢復。

In a similar vein, UK card acquisition volumes remain strong, We have added around 800,000 new Barclay Card customers this year, consistent with our strategy to regain market share in unsecured lending.

同樣，英國的信用卡購買量依然強勁，今年我們增加了約 80 萬名新的巴克萊卡客戶，這符合我們重新奪回無擔保貸款市場份額的策略。

In the UK corporate bank, we have extended client lending facilities by deploying around GBP1.2 billion additional RWAs this year, which we expect to drive lending balance growth as customers draw down.

在英國企業銀行，我們今年已透過部署約 12 億英鎊的額外 RWA 來擴大客戶貸款服務，我們預計隨著客戶提款，這將推動貸款餘額的成長。

And we have seen some evidence of this in Q3.

我們在第三季看到了一些證據。

Turning now to Barclays UK.

現在轉向英國巴克萊銀行。

You can see Barclays UK financial highlights and targets on slide 15, but I will talk to slide 16.

您可以在第 15 張投影片上看到巴克萊英國的財務亮點和目標，但我將討論第 16 張投影片。

RoTE was 23.4% in the quarter and total income was GBP1.9 billion, up GBP73 million year-on-year, or 4%.

本季的 RoTE 為 23.4%，總營收為 19 億英鎊，年增 7,300 萬英鎊，增幅 4%。

NII of GBP1.7 billion was up GBP69 million on Q2 as NIM increased by 12 basis points to 3.34%.

NII 為 17 億英鎊，較第二季增加 6,900 萬英鎊，NIM 增加 12 個基點至 3.34%。

As you can see on the bottom chart, we saw continued structural hedge momentum and small tailwinds from product margin and lending volume.

正如您在下圖中看到的，我們看到結構性對沖勢頭持續，以及來自產品保證金和貸款量的小幅順風。

We have updated our 2024 BUK NII guidance to circa GBP6.5 billion from circa 6.3 billion, excluding Tesco Bank, reflecting balance sheet trends turning more positive earlier than expected.

我們已將 2024 年 BUK NII 指引從約 63 億英鎊更新至約 65 億英鎊（不包括樂購銀行），這反映了資產負債表趨勢比預期更早轉為正面。

Non-NII was GBP280 million in Q3, and we continue to expect a run rate above GBP250 million per quarter going forward, although we expect the securitization that we announced earlier in the week to have a modest negative impact on non-NII in Q4.

第三季的非NII為2.8億英鎊，我們繼續預計未來每季的運行率將超過2.5億英鎊，儘管我們預計本週稍早宣布的證券化將對第四季的非NII產生適度的負面影響。

Total costs were circa GBP1 billion, down 4% year-on-year, and versus Q2, demonstrating continued progress on delivering efficiency savings from the ongoing BUK transformation.

總成本約為 10 億英鎊，年減 4%，與第二季相比，顯示 BUK 轉型在實現效率節約方面繼續取得進展。

The cost-to-income ratio improved to 52% this quarter.

本季成本收入比改善至52%。

Moving on to the Barclays UK customer balance sheet on slide 17.

前往投影片 17 上的巴克萊英國客戶資產負債表。

The stabilization and deposit trends that we called out at Q2 has continued in Q3.

我們在第二季指出的穩定和存款趨勢在第三季得以延續。

Deposit balance is reduced by GBP0.5 billion in the quarter, a similar quantum to Q2.

本季存款餘額減少了5億英鎊，與第二季相似。

Net lending was broadly flat in the quarter at GBP199 billion.

本季淨貸款基本持平，為 1,990 億英鎊。

Within this, we saw growth in mortgages, cards and unsecured personal lending, offset by continued pay-down of run-off portfolios, notably government-backed lending in business banking.

其中，我們看到抵押貸款、信用卡和無擔保個人貸款有所增長，但被持續償還的資產組合（尤其是政府支持的商業銀行貸款）所抵消。

As Venkat mentioned, we have made good progress on the acquisition of Tesco Bank.

正如 Venkat 所說，我們在收購 Tesco Bank 方面取得了良好進展。

Following the court process last week, we will complete the acquisition on November 1 with estimated financials to be confirmed at full year '24 results.

經過上週的法庭程序，我們將於 11 月 1 日完成收購，預計財務狀況將在 2024 年全年業績中確認。

The current estimated day one financial impact is a circa GBP0.3 billion net positive profit before tax, driven by an income gain resulting from consideration paid being below fair value, which is partially offset by a day one impairment charge.

目前估計的第一天的財務影響是稅前淨利潤約為 3 億英鎊，這得益於支付的對價低於公允價值而產生的收入增長，但部分被第一天的減值費用所抵消。

The impairment charge assumes all balances are required as Stage 1 loans, reflecting 12-month expected losses, with subsequent impairment bills required in future years.

減損費用假設所有餘額都作為第一階段貸款，反映 12 個月的預期損失，並在未來幾年內支付後續減損費用。

The profit before tax benefits statutory group RoTE in 2024 by about 50 basis points.

稅前利潤將使2024年的法定集團RoTE受益約50個基點。

Overall, when including the circa GBP7 billion RWAs, we expect to see around a 20 basis points negative impact to the Group CET1 ratio, which is lower than the circa 30 basis points previously guided.

總體而言，當計入約 70 億英鎊的風險加權資產時，我們預計對集團 CET1 比率將產生約 20 個基點的負面影響，低於先前預期的約 30 個基點。

Moving on to the UK corporate bank.

轉向英國企業銀行。

UK Corporate Bank delivered Q3 RoTE of 18.8%.

英國企業銀行第三季的資產負債比率為 18.8%。

Income grew 1% year-on-year, to GBP445 million. Non-NII

營收年增1%，達到4.45億英鎊。非NII

was flat year-on-year, but down in the quarter, mainly due to lower income from transactional products.

與去年同期持平，但本季有所下降，主要由於交易產品收入下降。

This line can be variable due to the inclusion of non-product items, such as liquidity pool income.

由於包含非產品項目（例如流動資金池收入），此行可能會發生變化。

However, we do expect non-NII to increase over time as we invest in our digital and lending propositions.

然而，我們確實預計，隨著我們對數位和貸款業務的投資，非國家資訊基礎設施將隨著時間的推移而增加。

Total costs were flat year-on-year at GBP222 million with future investment spend expected as we continue to support our growth initiative.

總成本與去年同期持平，為 2.22 億英鎊，預計未來將進行投資支出，因為我們將繼續支持我們的成長計畫。

Lending balances decreased by GBP0.9 billion in the quarter and underlying growth was more than offset by a circa GBP2 billion reduction due to refinements to the perimeter with the International Corporate Bank.

本季貸款餘額減少了 9 億英鎊，由於與國際企業銀行邊界細化，約 20 億英鎊的減幅超過了基礎成長。

This same adjustment also impacted deposit balances.

同樣的調整也影響了存款餘額。

Turning now to private banking and wealth management on slide 22.

現在轉到投影片 22 上的私人銀行和財富管理。

Q3 RoTE was 29% supported by strong growth in client assets and liabilities up around GBP3 billion on Q2 and around GBP23 billion versus the prior year.

第三季的 RoTE 為 29%，得益於客戶資產和負債的強勁增長，較第二季增加約 30 億英鎊，較上年增加約 230 億英鎊。

Income reduced 3% year-on-year, driven by lower NII from the non-repeat of a timing-related one-off in Q3 '23, which offset growth from increased client assets and liabilities.

營收年減 3%，原因是 23 年第三季未發生與時間相關的一次性事件導致 NII 降低，抵銷了客戶資產和負債增加帶來的成長。

Versus Q2, NII was up 1%, driven by increased client balances overall.

與第二季相比，NII 上漲 1%，主要得益於客戶餘額整體增加。

Costs were up 3% year-on-year as we continued to invest in this business, including in growing platforms, hiring, and efficiency-related measures.

由於我們繼續對該業務進行投資，包括發展平台、招聘和效率相關措施，成本同比增長了 3%。

Turning now to the investment bank.

現在來談談投資銀行。

Q3 RoTE was 8.8% up 0.8% year-on-year.

第三季淨利率為 8.8%，年增 0.8%。

Total income of GBP2.9 billion was up 6% year-on-year and total costs up 4% delivering positive costs to income jaws.

總收入 29 億英鎊，比去年同期增長 6%，總成本增長 4%，為收入帶來了正成本。

Excluding FX, total income was up 9% year-on-year and costs up 7% year-on-year.

除去外匯，總營收年增9%，成本年增7%。

RWA productivity measured by income over average RWAs was 5.7% in the quarter, 30 basis points better year-on-year, with year-to-date RWA productivity at 6%.

以收入除以平均 RWA 來衡量的 RWA 生產力在本季為 5.7%，比去年同期高出 30 個基點，年初至今的 RWA 生產力為 6%。

Period-end RWAs were GBP9.1 billion lower versus Q2 at GBP194 billion with FX accounting for around 6 billion of the move.

期末風險加權資產較第二季下降 91 億英鎊，至 1,940 億英鎊，其中外匯佔約 60 億英鎊。

At Q2 we had an uptick in RWAs which I said was temporary in nature.

在第二季度，我們的 RWA 有所上升，我認為這是暫時的。

The reduction we've seen this quarter excluding FX is a reversal of that.

本季我們看到的不包括外匯的減少與此相反。

Now looking at the specific income line in more detail on slide 25.

現在讓我們更詳細地看一下第 25 張投影片中的具體收入線。

Using the US dollar figures as usual to help comparison to our US peers, markets income was up 7% year on year.

像往常一樣使用美元數字來幫助與美國同行進行比較，市場收入同比增長了 7%。

FICC income was up 7% driven by a strong performance in credit, securitized products and fixed-income financing.

受信貸、證券化產品和固定收益融資強勁表現的推動，FICC 收入成長了 7%。

Equities income was up 7% aided by strong performance in cash equities and equity derivatives as we helped clients through market volatility in August.

由於我們幫助客戶度過八月份的市場波動，現金股票和股票衍生品表現強勁，股票收入增長了 7%。

Financing income was up 6% year-on-year, reflecting increased client flows and balances, with this business delivering more than GBP750 million in four of the last seven quarters.

融資收入年增 6%，反映出客戶流量和餘額的增加，該業務在過去七個季度中的四個季度中實現收入超過 7.5 億英鎊。

Investment banking fee income in dollars was up 67% year-on-year with gains across all products, in particular a strong quarter in advisory which was up 146%.

以美元計算的投資銀行費用收入年增 67%，所有產品均實現成長，尤其是諮詢業務表現強勁，成長了 146%。

DCM was up 55% delivering improved performance across both investment grade and leveraged finance.

DCM 上漲 55%，投資等級和槓桿融資的表現均有所提升。

ECM was up 9% against a wallet that was down 6%.

ECM 上漲了 9%，但錢包下跌了 6%。

Our year-to-date banking fee share was 3.5%.

我們今年迄今的銀行費用份額為 3.5%。

We have increased share across most products in a rising industry wallet, but we still have work to do to sustainably improve this.

在不斷增長的行業預算中，我們大多數產品的份額都增加了，但我們仍需努力才能持續改善這種狀況。

Finally, in the international corporate bank, transactions banking was up 5%.

最後，在國際企業銀行中，交易銀行業務成長了 5%。

We continue to grow US deposit balances which we see as a lead indicator of future client product take-up and fee income growth.

我們繼續增加美國存款餘額，我們將其視為未來客戶產品吸收和費用收入成長的領先指標。

This was more than offset by an GBP85 million impact from fair value losses on leveraged finance lending, which are reported in corporate lending, resulting in total ICB income being down 21% year-on-year.

但槓桿融資貸款公允價值損失 8,500 萬英鎊的影響（報告在企業貸款中）抵消了這一影響，導致 ICB 總收入年減 21%。

Turning now to the US Consumer Bank.

現在來談談美國消費銀行。

US consumer bank generated a RoTE of 10.9% up from 0.4% in Q3 last year, mainly due to the lower impairment charge following a higher provision build in the second half of 2023.

美國消費銀行的 RoTE 為 10.9%，高於去年第三季的 0.4%，主因是 2023 年下半年撥備增加後減損費用降低。

Income fell 2% year-on-year driven by a weaker US dollar.

受美元走弱影響，營收年減2%。

Excluding FX, income was up 2% driven by an increase in card balances which were up GBP1.4 billion year-on-year on a reported basis to $31.6 billion. NIM

除外匯外，營收成長 2%，原因是卡片餘額增加，據報道，卡片餘額年增 14 億英鎊至 316 億美元。國家計量學院

was stable on Q2 at 10.4% but down from 10.9% in the prior year, reflecting higher rewards earned by customers through increased spend.

與第二季持平，為 10.4%，但低於去年同期的 10.9%，反映出客戶透過增加消費獲得了更高的回報。

In Q4 these impacts are expected to be less of a headwind and we continue to target a NIM for this business of greater than 12% by 2026.

預計在第四季度這些影響將減弱，我們將繼續努力實現 2026 年該業務的淨利潤率超過 12% 的目標。

In terms of the funding mix of the business, the proportion of core deposits was broadly stable versus Q2 at 66% as we target above 75% by 2026.

就業務資金結構而言，核心存款佔比與第二季相比基本穩定在 66%，我們的目標是到 2026 年達到 75% 以上。

Costs were down 3% on the prior year.

成本較前一年下降了 3%。

As efficiency savings and the FX tailwind offset inflation and growth, driving a cost to income ratio of 50%.

由於效率節約和外匯順風抵消了通貨膨脹和成長，成本收入比達到 50%。

Excluding FX, costs were up 1%.

除去外匯，成本上漲了 1%。

We still expect costs to trend up modestly in Q4, as marketing spend during the holiday season will support continued growth in the business.

我們仍然預計第四季度成本將小幅上漲，因為節日期間的行銷支出將支持業務的持續成長。

Turning now to slide 28, and the summary of the financial impact from inorganic activity announced in 2024.

現在轉到第 28 頁，這是 2024 年宣布的無機活動帶來的財務影響的摘要。

As a reminder, at our Q2 results, we announced the disposal of our performing Italian mortgage portfolio and the German cards business.

提醒一下，在我們的第二季業績中，我們宣佈出售表現良好的義大利抵押貸款組合和德國信用卡業務。

Earlier this week, we announced the disposal of our non-performing Italian mortgage portfolio, which is expected to complete in Q4 '24.

本週早些時候，我們宣布處置不良義大利抵押貸款組合，預計將於24年第四季完成。

These disposals, along with the Tesco Bank acquisition, have a broadly neutral impact on statutory 2024 Group RoTE, whilst causing a circa 10 basis points drag to the CET1 ratio.

這些資產處置以及對樂購銀行的收購對 2024 年法定集團股東權益產生了大致中性的影響，但對 CET1 比率造成了約 10 個基點的拖累。

These transactions are a key component of reshaping the bank to be more focused in areas we have competitive strength, enabling us to deliver higher future returns.

這些交易是重塑銀行的關鍵要素，使我們更加專注於具有競爭優勢的領域，使我們能夠提供更高的未來回報。

Turning now to the balance sheet and starting with our capital position.

現在轉到資產負債表並從我們的資本狀況開始。

The CET1 ratio was 13.8% at the end of Q3, up 24 basis points versus Q2, and comfortably within our target range.

第三季末的 CET1 比率為 13.8%，較第二季上升 24 個基點，且在我們的目標範圍內。

This includes the impact of the ongoing GBP750 million half-year buyback that came off capital post the Q2 quarter end, 46 basis points of capital generated from profits in the quarter and a GBP4 billion reduction in RWAs, excluding FX.

這包括第二季末後正在進行的 7.5 億英鎊半年回購的影響、本季利潤產生的 46 個基點的資本以及 40 億英鎊的風險加權資產減少（不包括外匯）。

We continue to expect this year's total capital return to be broadly in line with the 2023 level of GBP3 billion, consistent with the capital distribution plan we laid out in February.

我們繼續預計今年的總資本回報率將與 2023 年 30 億英鎊的水平大致持平，與我們 2 月制定的資本分配計劃一致。

Let me turn briefly to our regulatory capital and the upcoming changes under Basel 3.1 as well as the US Cards model migration.

讓我簡單談談我們的監管資本和巴塞爾協議 3.1 下即將發生的變化以及美國信用卡模型遷移。

The combined expected RWA impact of GBP19 billion to GBP26 billion is in line with previous guidance of the lower end of 5% to 10% of group RWAs as at the end of 2023.

預計風險加權資產的綜合影響為 190 億英鎊至 260 億英鎊，與先前對 2023 年底集團風險加權資產 5% 至 10% 下限的預期一致。

However, the timing has changed for both items.

然而，這兩項事務的時間安排都已改變。

You will have seen that the PRA's Basel 3.1 implementation date moved to 1 January 2026 and the impact is expected to be between GBP8 billion and GBP15 billion post-litigation.

您會發現，PRA 的巴塞爾協議 3.1 實施日期已移至 2026 年 1 月 1 日，預計訴訟後的影響將在 80 億英鎊至 150 億英鎊之間。

The IRB migration of our US Cards portfolio has also moved from our prior expectation of Q1 2025 and will now take place after Basel 3.1 implementation for which we are building a Basel-compliant model.

我們的美國信用卡投資組合的 IRB 遷移也已從我們先前 2025 年第一季的預期中移出，現在將在巴塞爾協議 3.1 實施之後進行，我們正在為此建立符合巴塞爾協議的模型。

The total impact to RWAs from the IRB migration Bill stands at circa GBP16 billion, of which around GBP5 billion will be reflected at the time Basel 3.1 is implemented and is now included in our Basel 3.1 impact estimate.

IRB 遷移法案對 RWA 的總影響約為 160 億英鎊，其中約 50 億英鎊將在巴塞爾協議 3.1 實施時反映出來，現已納入我們的巴塞爾協議 3.1 影響估算中。

The remaining GBP11 billion relating to the IRB model will come after Basel 3.1 implementation at a date to be determined and is subject to model builds and portfolio changes over time.

與 IRB 模型相關的剩餘 110 億英鎊將在巴塞爾協議 3.1 實施後確定，並將隨著時間的推移受到模型構建和投資組合變化的影響。

Specific to this, there is likely to be a modest increase in Pillar 2A applicable at some point in 2025 and until the model is implemented.

具體來說，從 2025 年的某個時間點開始，直至該模型實施，第 2A 支柱的適用性可能會略有增加。

Reflecting the difference between models and the current standardized risk weighting, acknowledging we already hold Pillar 2A capital against the majority of this risk.

反映模型與目前標準化風險權重之間的差異，承認我們已經持有第二支柱資本來抵禦大部分風險。

As previously noted, the total impact of Basel 3.1 will also depend on further guidance from the PRA on the approach to Pillar 2A, where we expect some offsets for risk now to be capitalized under Pillar 1.

如前所述，巴塞爾協議 3.1 的整體影響也將取決於 PRA 對第二支柱 A 方法的進一步指導，我們預計現在部分風險抵銷將在第一支柱下實現資本化。

Risk-weighted assets decreased by GBP11 billion from Q2 to GBP340.4 billion, as you can see in more detail on slide 31.

風險加權資產較第二季減少了 110 億英鎊，至 3404 億英鎊，您可以在幻燈片 31 上看到更多詳細資訊。

FX drove around GBP7 billion of the reduction, with lower investment bank and head office RWAs also contributing.

外匯佔款減少了約 70 億英鎊，投資銀行和總部的風險加權資產減少也起了一定作用。

As usual, a brief word on capital and liquidity on slide 32.

像往常一樣，在第 32 張投影片上簡要討論一下資本和流動性。

We maintain a well-capitalized and liquid balance sheet with diverse sources of funding and a significant excess of deposits over loans.

我們的資產負債表資本充足且流動性強，資金來源多元化，存款遠超過貸款。

Turning now to TNAV.

現在轉向 TNAV。

TNAV for share increased 11p in the quarter and 35p year-on-year to 351p.

本季度，TNAV 份額增加了 11 便士，年增 35 便士，達到 351 便士。

Of the elements we controlled, attributable profit added 11p per share in the quarter and the share buyback which reduced our share count by 2% added 2p per share.

在我們控制的因素中，本季度應占利潤每股增加了 11 便士，而股票回購使我們的股票數量減少了 2%，每股增加了 2 便士。

We have seen further unwind of the negative movements in the cash flow hedge reserve in 2022-2023 which caused a drag on shareholders' equity and this added 9p in the quarter.

我們看到 2022-2023 年現金流對沖儲備的負面變動進一步緩解，這對股東權益造成了拖累，並在本季度增加了 9 便士。

These positive moves were partially offset by dividends paid and other reserve movements.

這些積極措施被支付的股利和其他儲備變動部分抵銷。

In summary, we remain focused on disciplined execution.

總而言之，我們仍然專注於嚴格的執行。

This is the third quarter of progress against the targets that we laid out in February, which we are either reiterating today or upgrading.

這是我們在二月設定的目標在第三季取得的進展，今天我們要么重申這些目標，要么提高這些目標。

Thank you for listening.

感謝您的聆聽。

Moving now to Q&A.

現在進入問答環節。

(Event Instructions)

(活動須知)

(Operator Instructions) Jason Napier, UBS.

(操作員指示) Jason Napier，瑞銀。

Two questions on slide 16 please, which is the Barclays UK margin and NII walk.

請問第 16 張投影片上的兩個問題，即巴克萊英國利潤率和 NII 步行。

Just first, and I appreciate the reiteration of guidance around hedge tailwinds into next year, but I just noticed that the quarter-on-quarter tailwind there is down about a third and it looks to us like maturing swaps and incoming swaps should have been fairly stable down about 30 basis points each in the period.

首先，我很感謝您重申對明年對沖順風的指導，但我剛剛注意到，該季度的順風下降了約三分之一，在我們看來，到期掉期和即將到期的掉期應該相當穩定，在此期間分別下降約 30 個基點。

And so I just wonder how you think about the sort of quarter-to-quarter volatility around this component of NII, trying to avoid a situation where we worry unduly about near-return dynamics from that.

所以我只是想知道您如何看待 NII 這一組成部分的季度間波動，試圖避免我們過度擔心由此產生的近回報動態的情況。

And then secondly, on that same chart, quite surprising to see the product margin as a net positive.

其次，在同一張圖表上，相當令人驚訝地看到產品利潤率為淨正值。

Can I just confirm, please, that that includes what are the leads and lags on depository pricing?

我能否確認一下，這其中包括存款定價的領先和滯後嗎？

There are.

有。

There's some feedback in the investment community that perhaps Barclays haven't been able to cut deposit rates as others have done, as rate cuts began.

投資界有反饋稱，隨著利率下調，巴克萊銀行或許未能像其他銀行一樣降低存款利率。

I just wonder whether you could talk about what you're seeing on deposit pass-throughs as rates start to decline and just confirm that I'm looking at the right block when I look to track that going forward.

我只是想知道，當利率開始下降時，您是否可以談談您對存款轉撥的看法，並確認當我展望未來跟踪存款轉撥時，我正在查看正確的區塊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks Jason.

謝謝傑森。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for the questions.

感謝您的提問。

I'll take both of those.

我都要這兩個。

So just looking at slide 16, I can see why you're asking the question.

所以只要看第 16 張投影片，我就能明白你為什麼要問這個問題。

The structural hedge impact is lower than the previous quarter.

結構性對沖影響低於上一季。

Last quarter, the product dynamic was negative.

上個季度，產品動態呈現負面狀態。

Now it's positive.

現在是獲得了獎勵。

So I'll pick those up in turn.

因此我將依次挑選它們。

Last quarter we did have a slightly higher swap rate, as you point out, but we also topped up the hedge a little bit, particularly around business banking.

正如您所指出的，上個季度我們的掉期利率確實略有上升，但我們也稍微補充了對沖，特別是在商業銀行業務方面。

That's now obviously in the run rate, so it's no longer causing that sort of quarter-on-quarter impact.

這顯然已經體現在運行率中，因此不再造成那種季度環比影響。

Going forward from here, we're going to continue to see momentum from the structural hedge, you can see that from the other disclosures that we've given you, for example, on page 10.

展望未來，我們將繼續看到結構性對沖的勢頭，您可以從我們提供的其他揭露資訊中看到這一點，例如第 10 頁。

So I still expect it to be a net tailwind overall to this business and really supporting the NII growth that we're seeing.

因此，我仍然預計它將對這項業務產生整體淨順風作用，並真正支持我們所看到的 NII 成長。

So nothing more really than that.

所以實際上僅此而已。

On the product margin, you're right, that does include all product margins, so it's including assets and liabilities.

關於產品利潤，你是對的，這確實包括所有產品利潤，所以它包括資產和負債。

I think it's important to point out that some of the drags that we've seen historically are no longer there, so you're no longer seeing that really significant deposit drag from migration coming through.

我認為有必要指出的是，我們在歷史上看到的一些阻礙因素已經不復存在，所以你不再會看到由移民帶來的真正顯著的存款阻礙。

Actually, our mortgage position is broadly neutral from a churn perspective now, so you're no longer seeing that.

實際上，從客戶流失的角度來看，我們的抵押貸款狀況目前大致上是中性的，所以你不再會看到這種情況。

What you are seeing is some positive momentum from both mortgage and card margins, which is a little bit offset by deposit pricing, as you point out.

您所看到的是抵押貸款和信用卡利潤率都出現了一些積極勢頭，但正如您所指出的，存款定價對此有所抵消。

But actually, I'd expect, given the kind of regulatory lag that we have in deposit pricing, for that to be more meaningful, that lag impact to be more meaningful in the fourth quarter.

但實際上，考慮到我們在存款定價方面的監管滯後，我預計這種滯後影響在第四季度將更加顯著。

So, bit of a [law] of small numbers here, because it is only a quarter-on-quarter movement, and it is only six, but that's the things that I would call out.

因此，這裡有點像小數定律，因為這只是一個季度環比的變化，而且只有六個，但這就是我要指出的事情。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Okay, perhaps we could go to the next question, please.

好的，也許我們可以進入下一個問題。

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

班傑明‧湯姆斯（Benjamin Toms），加拿大皇家銀行。

The first one is thank you for the new disclosure around the structural hedge income, around how that should be allocated to the group.

首先，感謝您對結構性對沖收入以及如何將其分配給集團的新揭露。

Someone like me, that's a bit like Christmas come early.

對我這樣的人來說，這有點像是提前到來的聖誕節。

One of your peers this week implied they expect the structural hedge notion to be flattish from here.

本週，您的一位同行暗示，他們預計結構性對沖概念從現在起將趨於平穩。

Based on your guidance in February and movements in the notional since the end, I think you're actually expecting a 13% reduction in the notional from here.

根據您在二月份的指導以及自年底以來名義金額的變動，我認為您實際上預計從現在起名義金額將減少 13%。

Do you really expect to see such a big reduction going forward, given you mentioned just previously the stabilization in deposits?

鑑於您剛才提到存款的穩定，您真的預期未來會出現如此大幅度的減少嗎？

Or can we assume that that assumption is now somewhat stale?

或者我們可以認為這個假設現在有點過時了？

And then secondly, just to chance my luck on 2025, one of your peers guided to a gradual increase in NIM in 2025 in the UK.

其次，我只是想碰碰運氣，看看 2025 年的情況，您的一位同行預測英國的 NIM 在 2025 年將逐步增加。

Should we expect a similar trend at Barclays?

我們是否應該預期巴克萊銀行也會出現類似的趨勢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, good morning, Ben.

好的，早安，本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll take both of those.

我都要這兩個。

So yes, please put that disclosure in on page 38 if you haven't seen it.

是的，如果您還沒有看到，請將該揭露放在第 38 頁。

I mean we often talk about the structural hedge and the support that it gives to the UK, I guess, in absolute and percentage terms, that's where it is most meaningful.

我的意思是，我們經常談論結構性對沖以及它給予英國的支持，我想，從絕對值和百分比來看，這是最有意義的。

But it does provide support elsewhere in the group, particularly through the equity structural hedge.

但它確實為集團的其他部分提供了支持，特別是透過股權結構性來對沖。

So you'll see there, perhaps surprising to many, that it's providing some support into the IB and because we allocate that equity portion by RWAs, so hopefully that's helpful.

因此，您會看到，也許令許多人感到驚訝的是，它為 IB 提供了一些支持，並且因為我們透過 RWA 分配了股權部分，所以希望這會有所幫助。

For the structural hedge notional, I'm not going to give you specific guidance then, but what I would say is we'd expect it to sort of trend broadly in line with where the deposits are going.

對於結構性對沖名目金額，我不會給你具體的指導，但我想說的是，我們預期它的趨勢與存款的去向大致一致。

When we spoke in February, that was less guidance, more sort of a framework to help you model it as time goes on.

當我們在二月進行交談時，那並不是指導，而是一種框架，可幫助你隨著時間的推移對其進行建模。

So we talked about GBP170 billion of maturing and rolling about three quarters of that, but that was designed really to give you the math that you could then update rather than a forecast itself.

因此，我們討論了其中約四分之三的 1700 億英鎊到期和展期，但這實際上是為了給您提供可以更新的數學知識，而不是預測本身。

So clearly, as we look at the moment, there are some positives in there, but we will continue to update you as we go through, but I wouldn't call out anything more than we should expect it to move in line with deposits.

因此顯然，就目前情況來看，其中存在一些積極因素，但我們會持續向您通報最新進展，但我不會透露更多，我們預計它會與存款保持一致。

On your second question, I'm not going to talk about NIM.

關於你的第二個問題，我不想談NIM。

NIM is going to move around quite a lot over the next few quarters.

未來幾個季度，NIM 將會發生很大變化。

As you can imagine, we're about to onboard GBP8 billion worth of unsecured lending.

你可以想像，我們即將獲得價值 80 億英鎊的無擔保貸款。

That's going to move the NIM materially.

這將對 NIM 產生重大影響。

What I would really focus you on is actually the net interest income.

我真正要關注的實際上是淨利息收入。

So we've upgraded our net interest income for the group and for BUK in the current year.

因此，我們提高了本年度該集團和 BUK 的淨利息收入。

So now we're expecting circa GBP6.5 billion for BUK.

因此現在我們預計 BUK 的投資額約為 65 億英鎊。

And if I take you back to what we said in February, we said we expected mid-single-digit growth in NII in the UK.

回顧我們二月說過的話，我們預計英國的國家資訊基礎設施投資 (NII) 將實現中等個位數成長。

We still expect that.

我們仍然期待這一點。

And what's driving that?

是什麼推動了這現象？

Well, clearly, we've got asset growth coming through.

嗯，顯然我們的資產正在成長。

What was a drag coming from deposits, we now see a stabilization, and hopefully, as deposits start to grow across the market, we would see the same.

我們現在看到了存款帶來的拖累，現在我們看到了穩定，並且希望隨著整個市場的存款開始成長，我們也能看到同樣的情況。

And whilst we've got some uncertainty coming through from rate changes, I would offset that with the kind of momentum that we've got from the structural hedge.

儘管利率變動給我們帶來了一些不確定性，但我會利用結構性對沖帶來的動力來抵消這種不確定性。

So we're expecting NII to be higher in '25 and in '26 than it has been in 2024 and that's obviously we would be putting Tesco on top of that.

因此，我們預計 2025 年和 2026 年的 NII 將高於 2024 年的水平，顯然我們會將 Tesco 置於其之上。

Okay, thanks Ben.

好的，謝謝本。

Next question please.

請回答下一個問題。

[Chris Camp, Autonomous].

[克里斯‧坎普，Autonomous]

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to ask about head office, please.

我想要詢問有關總部的狀況。

Gosh, Chris, we can't hear you.

天哪，克里斯，我們聽不到你的聲音。

Sorry.

對不起。

Could you start again, please?

你能重新開始嗎？

We picked up head office, but perhaps you could start your question again?

我們選擇了總部，但也許您可以重新開始您的問題？

Yeah.

是的。

Can you hear me now?

現在你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes, we can, loud and clear.

是的，我們可以，而且很清楚。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hello.

你好。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Yes, so head office, I wanted to ask about looking into '25, '26, could you give us some color on what the sort of underlying group center numbers look like after the various mortgage books have gone and the German card books have gone?

是的，總部，我想問一下關於調查'25、'26 年的情況，您能否給我們提供一些關於在各種抵押貸款賬簿和德國信用卡賬簿消失後，集團中心的基本數字是什麼樣的？

I think this is a sort of significant dispersion within consensus how people are thinking about sort of the underlying head office.

我認為這是人們對底層總部看法共識中存在的一種顯著差異。

It has been an area where historically, consensus has got a little bit out of [kilter] with your own expectations.

從歷史上看，在這個領域，共識與你自己的期望有些不一致。

So any color on once the transactions you've currently got in the pipeline are done, what does that group center income cost run rate look like?

那麼，一旦您目前正在進行的交易完成，該集團中心的收入成本運作率是什麼樣的？

And I appreciate that there's still the payments business in there, which may or may not go at some point, but what's the go-to run rate as things stand for the transactions once the transactions you've got in train are done?

我很欣賞你們仍在開展支付業務，雖然在某個時候支付業務可能會也可能不會開展，但是一旦你們正在進行的交易完成，交易的運行率是多少？

And then on BUK and I -- just a point of clarification, so it's mid-single-digit growth on the 2024 number, excluding Tesco, and then we put Tesco on top, so take essentially the GBP6.5 billion that you're now guiding, mid-single-digit growth on that, and then GBP400 million on top is what you're saying for 2025.

然後關於 BUK 和我——需要澄清一點，所以這是在 2024 年數字的基礎上實現的中等個位數增長，不包括 Tesco，然後我們將 Tesco 放在首位，所以基本上按照您現在指導的 65 億英鎊計算，在此基礎上實現中等個位數增長，然後再加上 4 億英鎊，這就是您所說的 2025 年的增長目標。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, thanks, Chris.

好的，謝謝，克里斯。

Let me pick up both of those.

讓我把這兩個都拿來。

The first one, look, I appreciate head office has been a bit volatile in the current year, both because it's housing our inorganic activity and those businesses before they actually flow out.

首先，我知道總部在今年有點不穩定，因為它容納了我們的無機活動和那些實際流出之前的業務。

Just to remind you, there's no inorganic activity in the current quarter.

只是提醒您，本季沒有無機活動。

You can also get some volatility in there from hedging.

您還可以透過對沖獲得一些波動性。

We're seeing a bit of that in the quarter, but year-to-date, that is a zero number, and we expect it to be timing only.

我們在本季看到了一些這樣的情況，但是年初至今，這個數字是零，而且我們預計這只是時間問題。

It's a bit early to guide you to what that run rate is, Chris, but we will do that in time.

克里斯，現在告訴你運行率還為時過早，但我們會及時告訴你。

But just to remind you, nothing in the current quarter, and just appreciate it's very difficult to model at the moment.

但需要提醒您的是，本季沒有任何變化，目前建模非常困難。

But once we get beyond that, we'll give you more guidance.

但一旦我們克服了這個困難，我們會給你更多的指導。

On the BUK NII, let me just clarify for you.

關於BUK NII，讓我為您澄清一下。

So, ex-TESCO, I expect some increase.

因此，除了 TESCO 以外，我預計會有所成長。

Mid-single-digit guidance that we gave you for BUK did include Tesco because that was from '23 to '26.

我們為 BUK 提供的中等個位數指導確實包括了 Tesco，因為那是從 23 年到 26 年。

So we included Tesco obviously in our RWA bridge to GBP30 billion and it's included in the mid-single.

因此，我們顯然將樂購納入了我們的 RWA 橋樑中，達到 300 億英鎊，並將其包含在中間單中。

So I would say overall we're expecting some organic, add Tesco on top to that.

因此我想說，總體來說，我們期待一些有機產品，並在此基礎上添加樂購 (Tesco)。

Is that clearer?

這樣更清楚嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Edward Firth, KBW.

愛德華·弗斯，KBW。

I had two questions.

我有兩個問題。

One was just on the BUK interest rate sensitivity.

一個是關於BUK利率敏感性。

It's quite striking that you're not highlighting it at all as an impact this quarter.

令人吃驚的是，您根本沒有強調它對本季的影響。

I think you said it was minimal or marginal.

我認為您說的是它很小或很邊緣。

I can't remember your exact words. in terms of your sensitivity rates falling going forward.

我不記得你確切說過的話。就您未來的敏感度率下降而言。

And I'm just trying to understand, any sort of commentary you could give to help us understand why that is.

我只是想了解，您能給什麼評論來幫助我們理解為什麼會發生這種情況。

Is that just like a temporary thing?

這不就是暫時的事情嗎？

And as the hedge rolls off, then you would expect some more sensitivity?

隨著對沖的消失，您是否會期望變得更加敏感？

Or is it something that you sort of structurally changed?

還是這是你從結構上改變的東西？

Because obviously on the way up, we saw NII grow very strongly on the back of higher rates.

因為很明顯，在上升過程中，我們看到 NII 在利率上升的推動下成長非常強勁。

So that's one question.

這是一個問題。

And then the other question was on the US.

另一個問題是關於美國。

The margin there.

那裡的利潤。

I get your comments about you're still targeting greater than 12%.

我明白您的評論，您的目標仍是超過 12%。

I think you said there was a lot of incentive programs or loyalty programs that you were running at the moment.

我記得您說過目前正在運行很多激勵計劃或忠誠度計劃。

And just, again, any help you can give us to understand from a business perspective how that works because, as you know, obviously in the US, loyalty programs are a huge part of the business.

再說一次，您能否幫助我們從商業角度了解其運作方式，因為如您所知，在美國，忠誠度計劃顯然是業務的重要組成部分。

It's a huge part of attracting volumes and customers, et cetera.

這對於吸引銷售、客戶等等來說，就起到了很大的作用。

And I'm just trying to think what is it you're expecting to change in the market more broadly or how is your offering going to change that's going to allow you to reduce those loyalty offerings but still maintain momentum in the business?

我只是想知道，您期望市場發生什麼樣的變化，或者您的產品將如何改變，以便您能夠減少那些忠誠度產品，但仍能保持業務發展勢頭？

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Ed. I will take both of those.

謝謝，埃德。我都會選這兩個。

On this first one, we gave you some guidance on the interest rate sensitivity in the previous quarter and that really showed for a 25-basis point parallel shift it was GBP50 million in the first year.

對於第一個問題，我們在上一季為您提供了一些有關利率敏感度的指導，實際上顯示，25 個基點的平行移動在第一年產生的利率敏感度為 5000 萬英鎊。

And then what you saw was that build over time and that build over time, the way I think about it, Ed, is in the first year it's dominated by the lag effect So this sort of 60-day regulatory lag that we have particularly in the UK and then in the outer years you see the impact of the hedge grinding lower in response to that parallel movement.

然後，您所看到的是，隨著時間的推移，這種積累逐漸增加，埃德，我的想法是，第一年它受滯後效應主導，因此，我們在英國尤其存在這種 60 天的監管滯後，然後在後面幾年，您會看到對沖的影響隨著這種平行運動而逐漸降低。

So that's really what's going on there.

原來那裡確實有發生過這樣的事情。

If I go back to what I said in product, for that product margin on page 16, just to clarify, we've got two offsetting impacts in there.

如果我回到我在產品中所說的內容，對於第 16 頁的產品利潤，只是為了澄清一下，我們在其中有兩個抵消影響。

There is a negative movement from the delay in pricing or repricing the liabilities.

負債定價或重新定價的延遲會帶來負面變動。

But there is an offset which is coming through from our asset margins which are expanding.

但我們的資產利潤率不斷擴大，從而起到了抵銷作用。

Now, you might expect that in a downward movement.

現在，你可能會預期趨勢會向下。

Sort of overall, we would expect that as the liability margins start to compress, you see asset margins widening out and of course we've got specific actions around things like high loan to value mortgages that are perhaps driving that a little bit faster.

總體而言，我們預計，隨著負債利潤率開始壓縮，資產利潤率將會擴大，當然，我們針對高貸款價值比抵押貸款等方面採取了具體行動，這些行動可能會加快這一進程。

So it's not that it's not there, it's just that there are some offsets and actually I would expect a bit more of that lag just because of the way the months sort of pan out in Q4.

所以，並不是說不存在，只是存在一些抵消，而且實際上，我預計這種滯後會更多一些，只是因為第四季度的月份發展方式。

On your second question on US margin, yes, the NIM is clearly lower than it was at the beginning of the year and indeed last year, but our expectation is that this is still a greater than 12% NIM business and all of the actions that we are taking to underpin that are taking place.

關於您關於美國利潤率的第二個問題，是的，淨利息收益率明顯低於年初和去年的水平，但我們的預期是，這仍然是一個高於 12% 的淨利息收益率業務，而且我們為支撐這一目標而採取的所有行動都在進行中。

So in the current quarter, and if you look sort of sequentially across the last few quarters, there's a few things going on.

因此，在當前季度，如果您連續回顧過去幾個季度的情況，您會發現一些事情正在發生。

There's natural seasonality in this business, so you see more purchase activity, more borrowing activity as you go into the holiday season, which is much more seasonal in the US than it is in the UK.

這個行業有自然的季節性，所以當你進入假期時，你會看到更多的購買活動，更多的借貸活動，在美國，假期的季節性比在英國更明顯。

So you'll see that natural shape.

所以你會看到自然的形狀。

The second thing is remember, we did that risk transfer in Q1.

第二件事是記住，我們在第一季進行了風險轉移。

What that meant was we swapped out NII for fee income, but obviously it's RoTE-acquitted overall.

這意味著我們用費用收入取代了 NII，但顯然總體上是 RoTE 的。

So you see some movement in the geography of the P&L and the balance sheet.

因此，您會看到損益表和資產負債表的地理位置發生了一些變化。

And then thirdly, as we've called out, there are a couple of things that we're just observing as a customer matter.

第三，正如我們所指出的，有幾件事我們只是作為客戶問題來觀察。

Actually, I don't think they're unhelpful, but there are two.

實際上，我並不認為它們沒有幫助，但有兩個。

The first is that customers are managing their balance as well.

首先，客戶也在管理自己的餘額。

They're repaying, perhaps a little bit faster than we expected.

他們正在償還，或許比我們預期的快一點。

In the context of the broader discussions about the US economy, I don't think that's unhelpful, and we see the other side of it in positive internments.

在有關美國經濟的更廣泛討論的背景下，我認為這並非無益，而且我們在積極的拘留中看到了它的另一面。

So we're not uncomfortable with that.

所以我們對此並不感到不舒服。

The second point is that customers are using their rewards not necessarily more, but faster than we would have previously expected.

第二點是，顧客使用獎勵的次數不一定比我們之前預期的更多，但速度要快。

Again, long-term for the franchise, while that puts a bit of a headwind into near-term NIM, it means they're really engaged with the card, they're really engaged with the brand program, so it's good news.

再說一次，對於特許經營來說，從長遠來看，雖然這會給近期的 NIM 帶來一些阻力，但這意味著他們確實參與了這張卡，他們確實參與了品牌計劃，所以這是個好消息。

So that kind of explains Q3.

這也就解釋了問題 3。

As I go beyond Q3 and think about that build to greater than 12%, The things that we talked about in February were, number one, repricing.

當我超越第三季並考慮這一增長至 12% 以上時，我們在二月份談論的事情首先是重新定價。

That repricing action has actually taken place.

這項重新定價行動實際上已發生。

It's complete.

已經完成了。

But what happens is customers have to actually purchase under the new terms and conditions.

但實際情況是，客戶必須按照新的條款和條件進行購買。

So it's going to drip through into NIM over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，它會逐漸滲透到 NIM 中。

The second action was really around the funding mix.

第二項行動其實是圍繞著資金組合展開的。

So we are now around 67% of retail funding.

因此，我們現在的零售融資佔比約為 67%。

We want to get that to around 75%.

我們希望將這一比例提高到 75% 左右。

That's going to take a while for us to build but we've launched the tiered savings products that will underpin that and you'll see more on that in time.

這對我們來說需要一段時間才能實現，但我們已經推出了分級儲蓄產品來支撐這一目標，您將及時看到更多相關內容。

So those things are really important.

所以這些事情真的很重要。

The last thing I would add is A key part of that move to 12% is how we start to morph this portfolio towards having a richer mix in retail.

我最後要補充的是，提高到 12% 的關鍵部分是我們如何開始轉變這個投資組合，使其在零售方面擁有更豐富的組合。

And you can see that we've announced our new partnership with GM.

你們可以看到我們已經宣布與通用汽車建立新的合作關係。

That again is another plank of this strategy.

這又是這項策略的另一個支柱。

So we're not going to get to 12% or greater than 12% immediately.

所以我們不會立即達到 12% 或超過 12%。

You're going to see it sort of emerge over the next few quarters.

您將會在接下來的幾個季度看到它的出現。

But greater than 12% is still our target and we feel like we're on track.

但超過 12% 仍然是我們的目標，我們感覺我們正在朝著目標前進。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Ed. Next question, please.

謝謝，埃德。請回答下一個問題。

Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的蓋伊·斯特賓斯（Guy Stebbings）。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您回答這些問題。

I had one on capital and then one back to product margins and BUK.

我之前討論過資本問題，後來又討論過產品利潤和 BUK 問題。

On capital and slide 30, thanks a lot for clarifying the various timings, including some of them that has been pushed out in the US for consumer business.

關於資本和第 30 張投影片，非常感謝您澄清各種時間安排，包括一些已在美國為消費者業務推出的時間安排。

I'm just wondering if that changes how you'll manage capital.

我只是想知道這是否會改變你管理資本的方式。

So in theory, it sort of frees up some capital in the next 12 months to perhaps distribute a little bit more early in the plan, or should we think that you're more likely to run at the very top end of the 13% to 14% range, maybe even above it, especially if there's a Pillar 2A temporary uptick.

因此從理論上講，它會在未來 12 個月內釋放一些資本，或許可以在計劃早期進行更多分配，或者我們應該認為您更有可能以 13% 到 14% 的範圍的最高端運行，甚至可能高於這個範圍，特別是如果第 2A 支柱出現暫時上漲。

Just thinking about how you think about that caps ratio during 2025 now has been -- we have to wait for 2026 for some of those to come through.

想想你現在如何看待 2025 年的上限比率——我們必須等到 2026 年才能實現其中一些目標。

And then on the product margins, I've come back to that point in terms of the lag effect and saying it might be more meaningful in Q4 on deposits.

然後就產品利潤率而言，我回到了滯後效應的那個點，並說它在第四季度對存款來說可能更有意義。

I would have thought there would be some sort of catch-up from the August rate cut, if you like, and you take the day one hit on the unhinged deposits and you have to wait to pass some of it back on the rate cut.

如果你願意的話，我原本以為 8 月份的降息會帶來某種形式的彌補，即你在第一天就承受了無節制存款的打擊，然後你必須等待降息才能將其中的一部分返還。

So I just check that sort of thinking is correct and your comment around the lag effect being greater in Q4 is maybe a reflection of an assumption of two rate cuts and maybe if it was just one rate cut it wouldn't be as more powerful versus what you saw in Q3.

因此，我只是檢查這種想法是否正確，而您關於第四季度滯後效應更大的評論可能反映了兩次降息的假設，而如果只是一次降息，那麼與第三季度相比，其威力可能不會那麼大。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay, thanks, Guy.

好的，謝謝，蓋伊。

I'll take both of those.

我都要這兩個。

I'm hoping Venka's going to get a question at some point.

我希望 Venka 某個時候能夠提出問題。

But just on the first one around capital, look, these regulatory movements that we set out for you on page 30 are timing and timing only.

但就第一個關於資本的問題而言，你看，我們在第 30 頁為你列出的這些監管舉措僅僅是時間和時機的問題。

And we'd reiterate today our expectation about distributions here, so greater than GBP10 billion for the three years of the plan.

今天我們重申了我們對分配的預期，即該計劃三年的分配額將超過 100 億英鎊。

And for the current year, we'd expect it to be broadly similar to last year, so around GBP3 billion.

就今年而言，我們預計該數字與去年大致相同，約為 30 億英鎊。

And we said in February that we would expect it to be progressive thereafter.

我們在二月就曾表示，我們預計此後它將不斷進步。

And I just say exactly the same today.

我今天也同樣這麼說。

Q4 is normally when we talk about distributions, and we'll do so then.

Q4 通常是我們討論分佈的時候，那時我們就會這樣做。

But we see this really around timing and you would expect us to build capital as we head towards both Basel and the IRB implementation.

但我們真正看到的是時機，你會期望我們在邁向巴塞爾和 IRB 實施的過程中累積資本。

Just on product margins, really what I was referring to is you've got sort of about a month's worth of that lag in Q3.

僅就產品利潤率而言，我實際上指的是第三季大約有一個月的滯後。

You're going to see the remainder of it in Q4.

您將在第四季度看到剩餘內容。

And we are expecting, because we use consensus, so consensus has got three rate cuts in the current year, we're expecting a couple of rate cuts in Q4.

而且我們預計，因為我們使用共識，所以共識是今年將有三次降息，我們預計第四季將有幾次降息。

So you're going to see impacts in Q4 and actually into Q1 of next year.

因此，您將在第四季度以及明年第一季看到影響。

Yes, that's good.

是的，很好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Guy.

謝謝你，蓋伊。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

[Amit Gol, Mediabanker].

[阿米特·戈爾，Mediabanker]。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you.

謝謝。

So, two questions from me.

所以，我有兩個問題。

So, one just related to that product margin.

因此，這僅與產品利潤有關。

But essentially, just on the BUK business, I kind of see the balance sheet still contracting a little bit in terms of total loan balances and deposit balances versus, I guess, some of your peers showing a little bit of growth now.

但本質上，僅就 BUK 業務而言，我看到資產負債表在總貸款餘額和存款餘額方面仍然略有收縮，而我想，相比之下，您的一些同行現在顯示出了一點增長。

So just kind of curious the interplay between the pricing which goes into that product margin versus balance sheet growth and when can we start to see a bit more organic growth and capital redeployment into the BUK business.

所以我只是好奇產品利潤率的定價與資產負債表成長之間的相互作用，以及我們什麼時候才能開始看到更多的有機成長和資本重新部署到 BUK 業務中。

And the second question, just relating to the US consumer business, I'm just curious how significant or not is the American Airlines partnership, if there's any color you can give there in terms of the contribution of that piece to the broader business.

第二個問題，僅與美國消費者業務有關，我只是好奇與美國航空的合作夥伴關係有多重要，您能否就該部分對更廣泛業務的貢獻提供一些資訊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

I'll take the first of those and then I'll hand to Venkat.

我會拿第一個然後交給 Venkat。

So it's probably helpful if we start on the sort of leading indicators page that we've included this time.

因此，如果我們從這次包含的領先指標頁面開始，可能會有所幫助。

It's on page 14.

在第14頁。

And if I take you back to February, what we said in February was we didn't expect a significant change in the net balance sheet, particularly in the UK in the current year.

回顧二月份，我們在二月說過，我們預期淨資產負債表不會有重大變化，尤其是今年在英國。

And that was because of our expectation and the known maturities that we have, not just in mortgages but, for example, in business banking.

這是因為我們的預期和已知的到期日，不僅是抵押貸款，還包括商業銀行業務。

What we did expect There's a change in the gross production.

我們確實預期總產量會改變。

And what we've shown you on page 14 is what I look at, what we look at, week in, week out, to give ourselves comfort that we are driving that gross production.

我們在第 14 頁展示的是我所關注的、我們週復一周所關注的內容，以便讓我們確信我們正在推動總產量。

So in mortgages, it's relatively straightforward.

因此，就抵押貸款而言，這相對簡單。

It's actually our gross lending.

這實際上是我們的總貸款。

You can see that stepping forward quarter on quarter.

您可以看到，這一情況逐季度取得進展。

It's obviously helped by the fact that the mortgage market itself is strong and robust, but also the fact that we are broadening out our range within that market and we're really putting Kensington to work now which we've been unable to do over the last few years.

顯然，抵押貸款市場本身強勁而穩健，而且我們正在擴大我們在該市場的範圍，我們現在真正讓肯辛頓發揮作用，這是我們過去幾年一直無法做到的。

The second point is on card acquisitions and you can see that meaningful step up in '24, but we've already started that journey in 2023.

第二點是關於卡片收購，你可以在 24 年看到這一有意義的進步，但我們已經在 2023 年開始了這一旅程。

And actually, what you see over time is that those cards volumes will start to feed into interest earning lending.

實際上，隨著時間的推移，你會看到這些卡的數量將開始轉化為賺取利息的貸款。

And then finally on UKCB, I know you're not asking about corporate here, but it's a bit more difficult there because clearly what you do is you put out lines to clients which is shown here in terms of RWAs and then those clients in time will draw down on them.

最後，關於 UKCB，我知道您不是在問公司的情況，但那裡的情況有點困難，因為很明顯您所做的就是向客戶提供額度，這些額度以 RWA 的形式顯示出來，然後這些客戶會及時提取這些額度。

So in terms of what's happening in terms of lead indicators in the balance sheet, I'm happy we're going in the right direction.

因此，就資產負債表中領先指標的情況而言，我很高興我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

In BUK specifically, we saw positive net lending in the businesses that we've got in focus.

具體來說，在 BUK，我們看到我們關注的業務中的淨貸款為正。

So we saw positive net lending in mortgages, we're seeing it in cards.

因此，我們看到抵押貸款的淨貸款為正，我們也在信用卡中看到了這一點。

What we've got offsetting that is some run-offs in portfolios which are obviously no longer -- core is not the right word, but if I use the example of government lending within business banking, I don't think that's different either in percentage terms or sort of in directional terms from our peers.

為抵銷這一影響，我們已經對投資組合進行了部分削減，這些投資組合顯然不再是——雖然「核心」這個詞不太準確，但如果我以商業銀行內部的政府貸款為例，我認為，無論是從百分比還是從方向上看，與我們的同行相比，這並沒有什麼不同。

You're hearing similar things there.

你在那裡聽過類似的事情。

So I think we're happy overall.

所以我認為我們總體上是快樂的。

And obviously, as we increase our cards lending, you get a mixed impact.

顯然，隨著我們增加信用卡貸款，你會感受到複雜的影響。

As we've increased the proportion of lending at higher loan-to-values, you get a mixed impact and that's really what's flowing into the product margin and giving that positive.

隨著我們增加了高貸款價值比的貸款比例，你會受到混合影響，而這實際上流入了產品利潤並產生了積極影響。

So let me hand to Venkat on the second part.

所以，讓我把第二部分交給 Venkat。

Yeah, look.

是的，看。

On cards, obviously, we will not talk about any specific account until there is time to talk about, you know, the right time to talk about an account or we have something to say.

關於卡片，顯然，我們不會談論任何特定的帳戶，直到有時間談論，你知道，談論帳戶的合適時間，或者我們有話要說。

We also do not talk about individual client profitability or financials.

我們也不談論個人客戶的獲利能力或財務狀況。

We announced GM a couple of days ago and so we are speaking about that and if there is news on any other client, we will tell you at the right time.

我們幾天前宣布了 GM，所以我們正在談論這個，如果有關於其他客戶的消息，我們會在適當的時候告訴你。

Okay, thanks Amit.

好的，謝謝阿米特。

Perhaps we can go to the next question.

或許我們可以進入下一個問題。

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的克里斯哈勒姆 (Chris Hallam)。

So, two from me as well.

因此，我也貢獻兩個。

First, in the IB, if we think about the gradual rebalancing of that business, clearly dynamics in the quarter for DCM were very strong, both for you and across the street.

首先，在 IB 中，如果我們考慮該業務的逐步重新平衡，那麼顯然 DCM 本季的動態非常強勁，無論是對您還是對街而言。

But given the organic reduction in RWAs you saw in the quarter in the IB and the improvement in asset productivity year over year, are you starting to make those selective decisions to de-emphasize DCM and where are you comfortable doing less, I guess?

但是，考慮到您在本季度看到的 IB 中 RWA 的有機減少以及資產生產率的逐年提高，您是否開始做出那些選擇性決策來弱化 DCM 的重要性，我想，您願意在哪些方面減少投入？

And when we think about reallocating those RWAs into the financing businesses, should we sort of assume GBP750 million as a floor for markets financing revenues, assuming supported markets?

當我們考慮將這些 RWA 重新分配到融資業務時，我們是否應該將 7.5 億英鎊作為市場融資收入的底線，並假設有支持的市場？

That's the first topic.

這是第一個話題。

And then second on Tesco, so thank you for the additional disclosure in the update today.

其次是關於 Tesco，感謝您在今天的更新中提供的額外披露。

So what steps are you planning to take over the next 12 to 24 months to improve the product margins in Tesco Bank?

那麼，您計劃在未來 12 到 24 個月內採取哪些措施來提高樂購銀行的產品利潤率？

If I look at asset productivity or NII versus RWAs, it's quite a bit lower in Tesco Bank than the rest of the BUK business, looking at the GBP400 million and the GBP7 billion of RWAs.

如果我比較資產生產力或 NII 與 RWA，那麼樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank) 的資產生產力要比 BUK 業務的其他部分低很多，前者為 4 億英鎊，後者為 70 億英鎊。

So how are you planning to scale NII faster than RWAs to optimize that capital resource in question?

那麼您打算如何以比 RWA 更快的速度擴展 NII，以優化相關的資本資源？

Right, so Chris, let me take the IB and then Anna will talk about Tesco.

好的，克里斯，讓我參加 IB 考試，然後安娜將談論樂購 (Tesco)。

On the IB, first of all, big picture, we're looking to keep RWAs in absolute terms relatively flat to their current number of around GBP200 billion.

就 IB 而言，首先，從總體上看，我們希望將 RWA 的絕對值保持在相對平穩的水平，約為目前的 2000 億英鎊。

The relative reduction in RWAs as a percentage of the group happens because the rest of the group grows.

該集團的風險加權資產佔比相對減少，是因為該集團剩餘成員的成長。

Second, in the investment bank, RWAs came down by about GBP9 billion this quarter. compared to the previous one, but about GBP6 billion of that was due to FX, and GBP3 billion was actual action, and you know, 1% up and down, or 1.5% up and down in a quarter is normal business mix.

其次，在投資銀行方面，本季風險加權資產下降了約90億英鎊。與之前相比，但其中約 60 億英鎊是由於外匯影響，30 億英鎊是實際行動，你知道，一個季度內 1% 的漲跌或 1.5% 的漲跌都是正常的業務組合。

Third, we are not looking to de-emphasize CCM.

第三，我們不想降低 CCM 的重要性。

What we are looking to do is, within the investment bank, be prudent in assigning capital to clients, looking at the totality of their relationship.

我們希望在投資銀行內部審慎地向客戶分配資本，並全面考慮他們之間的關係。

And that relationship is not just CCM, but it includes M&A and equities, and what corporate banking we do with them.

這種關係不僅涉及 CCM，還包括併購和股權，以及我們與他們開展的公司銀行業務。

And that's the way to think about it.

這就是思考這個問題的方法。

And lending is a part of it.

貸款就是其中的一部分。

Lending is not the only part of it.

貸款並不是其中唯一的部分。

We don't want lending to be the main part of it.

我們不希望貸款成為其中的主要部分。

And as far as revenue of GBP750 million from financing, look, we've been stable at that number.

至於 7.5 億英鎊的融資收入，我們一直穩定在這個數字。

What I would say is while we have been gaining clients and gaining market share in that business, the actual revenue is a function of two things.

我想說的是，雖然我們一直在贏得客戶並擴大市場份額，但實際收入取決於兩個因素。

It's a function of what happens in the composition of balances, fixed income and equities, and so what the markets do, as well as spreads within that.

它是餘額、固定收益和股票的組成情況以及市場行為及其利差的函數。

So I can't tell you that it's going to stay at this level or not go up or down.

所以我無法告訴你它會保持在這個水平或不會上升或下降。

It depends on that mix.

這取決於混合。

What we do think we have is a diversified business between fixed income and equities, a competitive business in both, but a particularly strong fixed income business, and a diversified business among the types of clients who use it regionally, product-wise and within fixed income, asset class-wise, meaning spread versus common bonds.

我們確實認為，我們的業務在固定收益和股票之間實現了多元化，在這兩個領域都具有競爭力，但固定收益業務尤其強勁，而且，我們的業務在區域、產品和固定收益、資產類別（即與普通債券相比的利差）等各類客戶中都實現了多元化。

So that's what we think contributes to a good and stable mix, but I'm reluctant to put sort of floors and ceilings on numbers.

所以我們認為這有助於形成良好而穩定的組合，但我不願意為數字設定下限和上限。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

The only thing I'd add to that is if I take that GBP9 billion reduction, GBP6 billion was FX, as Venkat said.

我唯一要補充的是，如果我削減 90 億英鎊，那麼 60 億英鎊就是外匯，正如 Venkat 所說。

The other GBP3 billion was just the reversal of the client positioning that we saw over Q2 that we said was temporary.

另外 30 億英鎊只是我們在第二季度看到的客戶部位的逆轉，我們說這只是暫時的。

So it just kind of brings us back to where we started at the beginning of the year.

所以這只是讓我們回到年初開始的地方。

On Tesco, for the next year or so, for the next sort of 12 to 18 months, our focus is really on integration and our focus will be on customer service.

對於樂購來說，在未來一年左右的時間裡，也就是接下來的12到18個月裡，我們的重點是整合，我們的重點將放在客戶服務上。

So that is our primary focus as it would be in any partnership as it was in GAAP in the US.

因此，這是我們關注的重點，就像任何合作關係一樣，就像美國的 GAAP 一樣。

So this is just a replication of what we would do with any other partner across the firm.

所以這只是我們與公司其他合夥人所做事情的複製品。

Over time, we would expect this to be RoTE accretive for a number of reasons, whether that be efficiency, whether that be funding benefits that you might expect to accrue, and obviously we'll update you on that in the course of time, but really our objective over the short term is going to be to integrate it well and really ensure that that customer experience is foremost.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計這將由於多種原因而實現 RoTE 增值，無論是效率，還是您可能期望獲得的資金收益，顯然我們會及時向您通報，但實際上，我們短期的目標是很好地整合它，並真正確保客戶體驗是最重要的。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Perhaps we could go to the next question please.

也許我們可以進入下一個問題。

The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alvaro Serrano。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

A couple of questions on the investment bank for me please.

請問我幾個有關投資銀行的問題。

First of all, on the fee performance, obviously very strong in the quarter, but similar to Q2 where you called out a large deal there, is there any lumpy deals that we should bear in mind?

首先，就費用表現而言，本季的費用表現顯然非常強勁，但與第二季類似，您在第二季提到了一筆大交易，是否有任何大額交易需要我們注意？

Is the performance sustainable?

業績是否可持續？

I'm guessing ultimately, I'm asking about the pipeline from here given the strong performance.

我猜，最終，鑑於強勁的表現，我詢問的是這裡的管道。

And second is on the leverage finance marks.

第二是槓桿融資標誌。

It feels like it's a bit of an odd quarter to take those marks and with credit spreads actually very tight.

感覺這個季度的評分有點奇怪，而且信用利差其實非常緊張。

Maybe could you give us a bit of color on what's driving that?

也許您能給我們稍微解釋一下造成這種情況的原因嗎？

Is it a portfolio?

這是一個投資組合嗎？

Is it a single sort of ticket or are you looking to sell something in the March or should we expect more of this in the coming quarters?

這是單一類型的票還是您希望在三月出售一些東西，或者我們應該在未來幾季期待更多這樣的票？

Just a bit of color on this.

這只是一點顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll take the first question and then Anna will take the next question.

我來回答第一個問題，然後安娜來回答下一個問題。

So on fee performance, in Q3, nothing special to call out.

因此，就第三季的費用表現而言，沒有什麼特別值得注意的。

Look, we are part of certain larger deals, but I wouldn't say that unduly that there is anything I would call out.

你看，我們是某些較大交易的一部分，但我不會過分地說有什麼我要指出的。

And as I've said elsewhere, we've obviously seen activity pick up over this year compared to the previous year.

正如我在其他地方說過的，與去年相比，我們明顯看到今年的活動有所回升。

We expect it to continue to be relatively firm.

我們預計它將繼續保持相對堅挺。

Obviously, there are a couple of wild cards out there in terms of what happens with the US elections and economic policy, rate policy in the US on M&A activity after that.

顯然，就美國大選和經濟政策以及此後美國併購活動的利率政策而言，存在一些不確定因素。

But assuming no major surprises or changes, we expect to continue to see it to be firm.

但假設沒有重大的意外或變化，我們預期它將繼續保持堅挺。

Anna?

安娜？

Okay, thanks Venkat.

好的，謝謝 Venkat。

So let me pick up that second one, Alvaro.

那麼讓我來談談第二個問題，阿爾瓦羅。

I mean, let's say there's a really important part of our business, and you're right, in the current environment, what we see is that market overall performing really well.

我的意思是，假設這是我們業務中非常重要的一部分，而且您說得對，在當前環境下，我們看到的是市場整體表現非常好。

Deals are clearing quickly.

交易正在快速完成。

Occasionally, we find that either some of those don't, that is episodic, it's a feature of our business, it's a feature of the market overall and not something that we would particularly call out, so it's normal.

有時候，我們會發現其中一些情況並非如此，這是偶發性的，這是我們業務的一個特點，是整個市場的一個特點，而不是我們特別指出的事情，所以這是正常的。

What we do at the end of every single quarter is we assess our balance sheet and we use a prevailing market information in order to assess the fair value of that balance sheet.

我們在每季末都會評估我們的資產負債表，並利用現行的市場資訊來評估該資產負債表的公允價值。

And where we feel we need to take more than we do and that's what we've done in in the current quarter.

我們覺得我們需要採取比現在更多的行動，而這正是我們在本季所做的。

So it's very much BAU, and as I say, it occasionally occurs, it's episodic.

所以它非常像 BAU，而且正如我所說，它偶爾會發生，它是偶發性的。

I wouldn't comment on clients as we would never do.

我不會對客戶發表評論，我們永遠不會這樣做。

I would just remind you also that this is a book which has some hedging set against it.

我還要提醒你，這是一本帶有一些對沖性質的書。

The cost of that hedging also flows through corporate lending.

對沖的成本也流經企業貸款。

So we protect ourselves in that way.

所以，我們用這種方式保護自己。

And I would say overall, our exposures are probably, whilst they're higher than 23, they're lower than they have been historically.

我想說，總體而言，我們的風險敞口可能雖然高於 23，但低於歷史水準。

So it's a well-risk-managed book and really this is sort of the kind of thing we see normally but on an episodic basis.

所以，這是一本風險管理良好的書籍，實際上這也是我們通常偶爾會看到的那種書籍。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Alvaro.

謝謝，阿爾瓦羅。

Perhaps we could go to the next question, please.

也許我們可以進入下一個問題。

[Jonathan Pearce, Jefferies].

[喬納森·皮爾斯，傑富瑞]。

Hello there.

你好呀。

I've got two, please.

請給我兩個。

The first is – I'm sorry, it's back on rate sensitivity.

第一個是——抱歉，我們又回到了利率敏感度問題。

Thanks for the hedge allocation data again, by the way.

順便說一句，再次感謝您提供的對沖分配數據。

It helps us to be a bit more precise in the tailwinds there in Barclays UK.

它幫助我們更精準地掌握巴克萊英國的順風趨勢。

But the piece that I'm still struggling with a bit is the rate sensitivity.

但令我感到困擾的一點是利率敏感度。

But the GBP50 million in year one, I hear what you're saying about a lot of that being relating to deposit bank, but if there's GBP40 billion of hedge maturities a year as per guidance, you'd have thought a 25-basis point shift in the curve would be knocking GBP50 million out of the hedge income in year one.

但是第一年的 5000 萬英鎊，我聽到您說其中很多與存款銀行有關，但如果按照指導每年有 400 億英鎊的對沖到期，您會認為曲線 25 個基點的移動將導致第一年的 5000 萬英鎊的對沖收入減少。

So I'm not quite sure what's going on here.

所以我不太清楚這裡發生了什麼事。

Are you saying that there is no impact on what we might call managed margin?

您是說這對我們所謂的管理保證金沒有影響嗎？

from a 25-basis point rate reduction at all, just simply because the structural hedge is now so large in the context of the deposit book.

僅僅因為在存款帳簿中結構性對沖現在規模如此之大，根本無法抵禦 25 個基點的利率下調。

So it would be helpful just to understand why that 50 is so low.

因此，了解為什麼 50 這麼低是有幫助的。

I mean, it's the lowest in the sector.

我的意思是，這是該領域最低的。

It's quite difficult to triangulate.

三角測量非常困難。

The second question, sorry this is just for the models really into the year-end, there's two bits that I'd like a bit of clarity on.

第二個問題，抱歉，這只是針對年底的模型，有兩點我希望能夠澄清一下。

Barclays UK saw a GBP4 billion increase in the early part of the year for methodology and policy changes.

由於方法和政策變化，巴克萊英國銀行今年年初的資金增加了 40 億英鎊。

At the time you said that would partially reverse over the rest of the year, it doesn't seem like it has reversed yet.

當您說這種情況將在今年剩餘時間內部分逆轉時，目前看來似乎尚未逆轉。

Is that coming in Q4?

這會在第四季實現嗎？

And then in the other direction the [OR1] I think is pointing to about a two and a half billion off risk increase in the fourth quarter.

然後從另一個方向來看，我認為 [OR1] 指向第四季風險增加約 25 億美元。

Is that about the right number to be sticking in the spreadsheet?

這個數字是否正確，應記在電子表格中？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay, Jonathan, let me show the first one.

好的，喬納森，讓我展示第一個。

So I would say, we've said GBP170 billion over three years, so I think you're probably closer to around GBP60 billion of hedge maturing.

所以我想說，我們說過三年內會有 1700 億英鎊，所以我認為到期的對沖金額可能更接近 600 億英鎊。

And really what's going on here is, remember you've got that underlying maturing rate at around 1.5%.

而實際發生的情況是，請記住，基礎成熟率約為 1.5%。

So even though rates are coming down, you're still getting a pickup from the structural hedge.

因此，即使利率下降，你仍然可以從結構性對沖中獲得收益。

It's only really in the outer years when that grinds out that you're seeing that more meaningful difference.

只有在後來的歲月中，當這一切逐漸顯現出來時，你才能看到更有意義的差異。

So I think it's nothing more than that, but we can talk you through that outside of here if that's helpful.

所以我認為僅此而已，但如果有幫助的話，我們可以在外面和你討論這個問題。

Our relative sensitivity, we talked about this quite a bit as rates went up because we were clearly less rate sensitive on the way up, so you'd expect us to be less sensitive on the way down.

我們的相對敏感性，在利率上升時我們討論過這個問題很多次，因為在利率上升的過程中，我們對利率的敏感度明顯較低，因此，你會期望我們在利率下降的過程中對利率的敏感度也會較低。

So that is exactly what's coming through right now.

這正是現在正在發生的事。

Perhaps we hedge a little bit more.

或許我們可以多做一些對沖。

We certainly hedge more proactively.

我們當然會更積極地進行對沖。

We are looking forward and assessing that on a monthly basis.

我們每月都會對此進行期待和評估。

Adjusting hedges very actively as we go to reflect the detail of customer and client behavior.

我們會積極地調整對沖，以反映顧客和客戶行為的細節。

I think it's a benefit of that approach that we're seeing and the fact that we've just done this very programmatically over a very long period of time.

我認為這是我們看到的這種方法的好處，事實上我們在很長一段時間內已經非常程序化地做到了這一點。

We're not seeking here to have any kind of view as to where rates will go.

我們在此並不尋求對利率走向發表任何看法。

We're just letting the hedge roll and we're reacting to customer behavior.

我們只是讓對沖滾動並對客戶行為做出反應。

On the second question, I think we'll have to come back to you on that one on op-risk.

關於第二個問題，我想我們必須再就操作風險問題與您討論。

So let's do that.

所以我們就這麼做吧。

Venkat, do you want to work on the hedging?

Venkat，你想從事避險工作嗎？

I just want to emphasize the final point Anna made on structural hedging.

我只想強調安娜關於結構性對沖的最後一點。

This is programmatic, this is a hedge.

這是程序性的，這是一種對沖。

We try to understand as best we can deposit behavior, deposit balances, customer behavior affecting that, and hedge it.

我們盡力了解存款行為、存款餘額、影響這些的客戶行為，並對其進行避險。

And as Anna said, therefore, if it works very well, it should provide you with a protection, meaning you don't see the benefits as rates rise. as much as you would otherwise, and you don't see the losses as rates fall, meaning that your NII remains more stable because of that.

因此，正如安娜所說，如果它運作得很好，它應該為您提供保護，這意味著您不會因為利率上升而看到好處。而您不會因為利率下降而遭受損失，這意味著您的 NII 會因此保持更加穩定。

And that's what we're trying to do, and what Anna said is perfectly right about that.

這正是我們正在努力做的事情，安娜說得非常正確。

Yeah, and sorry to just follow up on that.

是的，很抱歉，我只是想跟進一下這個問題。

I mean, I'm fully behind the idea of hedging.

我的意思是，我完全支持對沖的想法。

That's not the issue.

這不是問題。

Just to check, though, Anna, I thought the rate sensitivity table ignored any sort of yields pick up on the hedge.

不過，安娜，只是為了檢查一下，我認為利率敏感度表忽略了對沖的任何收益率上升。

I thought it was purely if the yield curve is 25 basis points lower, this is the impact on us.

我認為這純粹是如果殖利率曲線下降 25 個基點，就會對我們產生影響。

In which case, if you're reinvesting GBP40 billion of hedge a year at 25 basis points less, that's the entirety of, you know, average out over the year, the entirety of the GBP50 million you're pointing to in year one. which just implies everything else is nothing.

在這種情況下，如果您每年以低 25 個基點的利率再投資 400 億英鎊的對沖資金，那麼這就是全年平均的全部金額，也就是第一年所指的 5000 萬英鎊的全部金額。這只是暗示其他一切都不存在。

Just checking that's the case.

只是確認情況確實如此。

It's just very small in year one, Jonathan.

喬納森，第一年還很小。

Let us take it outside with you.

讓我們和你一起把它帶到外面。

We'll come back to you.

我們會回到你身邊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Robin Down, HSBC.

羅賓唐 (Robin Down)，匯豐銀行。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks for taking the questions and also thank you for the added disclosure on the structural heritage.

感謝您回答這些問題，也感謝您對結構遺產的補充揭露。

That's very useful.

這非常有用。

Apologies, but I'm going to bring you back to the BUK interest income issue, and I think it is important because it's the main topic of conversation amongst investors this morning.

抱歉，但我要讓您回到 BUK 利息收入問題，我認為這很重要，因為這是今天早上投資者談論的主要話題。

If we look at your GBP6.5 billion guide for this year, it kind of implies a Q4 run rate X test goes of kind of GBP6.8 billion, GBP6.9 billion.

如果我們看一下您今年的 65 億英鎊指南，這意味著第四季度的運行率 X 測試將達到 68 億英鎊或 69 億英鎊。

If we add in kind of GBP400 million for Tesco as we're at kind of [GBP7.2 billion, GBP7.3 billion], I think you're looking to grow next year.

如果我們為樂購 (Tesco) 增加 4 億英鎊，目前我們的規模約為 [72 億英鎊，73 億英鎊]，我認為明年我們將實現成長。

I think, especially given that 85% of the product hedge is in BUK, that the structural hedge benefit is more than going to outweigh any kind of rate reduction impact.

我認為，尤其是考慮到 85% 的產品對沖都是在 BUK 中，結構性對沖效益將遠遠超過任何形式的降息影響。

So why are you not going to end up materially above the GBP7.1 billion that consensus has?

那麼，為什麼最終的金額沒有大幅高於普遍共識的 71 億英鎊呢？

penciled in next year?

計劃於明年進行嗎？

Is there something I'm missing some big kind of negative drag that you're anticipating?

我是否忽略了您所預料到的某些重大負面阻力？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So Robin, I'm not going to comment on consensus income for 2025 at this stage, but I'm just going to reiterate the fundamentals of what we're talking about here, which is BUK, we expect over the plan to have NII growth of mid-single digit.

因此，羅賓，我現階段不會對 2025 年的一致收入發表評論，但我只是想重申我們在此討論的基本內容，即 BUK，我們預計該計劃的 NII 增長率將達到中等個位數。

Tesco is part of that.

樂購 (Tesco) 就是其中之一。

You can see that there is NII momentum in the business organically.

您可以看到，業務中存在著 NII 勢頭。

We've called that out.

我們已經指出了這一點。

You can see it over the last two quarters.

您可以在過去兩個季度看到這一點。

It's coming from asset growth.

它來自於資產成長。

It's coming from the momentum from the structural hedge.

這是來自結構性對沖的動力。

Now, as I said before, we haven't really seen the full impact of the rate cuts yet, but we would still expect the net of all of that into 2025 to be positive, and then obviously you're going to have Tesco on top of that.

現在，正如我之前所說，我們還沒有真正看到降息的全部影響，但我們仍然預計到 2025 年所有這些的淨影響將為正值，然後顯然你會在此之上擁有樂購 (Tesco)。

So I'm not going to give you specific numbers now, but the view here has not changed from where we were in February, which is we expect NII for BUK to grow.

所以我現在不會給你具體的數字，但現在的觀點與 2 月相比沒有改變，我們預計 BUK 的 NII 將會成長。

But if I come back to that, the view kind of has changed in the sense that we've now got a GBP6.5 billion interest income forecast for BUK for this year, coming up from what was an original kind of GBP6.1 billion.

但如果我回過頭來談這個問題，我的觀點已經發生了改變，我們目前預測 BUK 今年的利息收入將達到 65 億英鎊，高於原來的 61 億英鎊。

Can I put it slightly differently then?

那我可以稍微換個說法嗎？

Is there any reason why I can't annualize Q4 at GBP6.9 billion and add GBP400 million for Tesco's.

有什麼理由我不能將第四季的年化收入定為 69 億英鎊，並為樂購增加 4 億英鎊呢？

And so I have a starting base of GBP7.3 billion when I look at 2025 numbers.

因此，當我看 2025 年的數字時，我的起始基數是 73 億英鎊。

So, Robin, you're right.

羅賓，你是對的。

We have upgraded our BUK guidance.

我們已經升級了我們的 BUK 指導。

So we did start at GBP6.1 billion and we're now around GBP6.5 billion.

因此，我們的起價為 61 億英鎊，現在約為 65 億英鎊。

And really what's happening here is clearly there is a change in our expectation of rates for the current year.

而實際上發生的情況顯然是我們對今年利率的預期改變了。

We started in a position where we had five rate cuts in February.

我們一開始的立場是二月我們已經降息五次。

Now we're expecting three.

現在我們預計會有三名。

And then the other three, including the one we've already had, so a further two.

然後是另外三個，包括我們已經有的一個，所以還有兩個。

And then the other thing that's happening here is clearly we've seen a stabilization in that balance sheet earlier than we expected.

這裡發生的另一件事是，我們顯然看到資產負債表比我們預期的更早趨於穩定。

So at the beginning of the year, I said I expected the balance sheet to get smaller before it got bigger.

所以在年初的時候，我就說過，我預期資產負債表會先變小，之後再變大。

We've seen two quarters now, nearly three quarters of real stabilization in deposits, perhaps a bit earlier than we expected.

現在我們已經看到兩個季度、近三個季度的存款實際上趨於穩定，這可能比我們預期的要早一些。

And we've seen the asset momentum turn perhaps a little bit earlier than we expected.

我們看到資產動能的轉變可能比我們預期的要早一些。

I'm not going to comment on your numbers for 2025.

我不會對你 2025 年的數字發表評論。

I'm really going to leave that to you, but just bring you back to our expectation that we expect NII for the UK to grow.

我真的要把這個問題留給你來解決，但我只是想讓你回想起我們的預期，即我們預計英國的 NII 將會成長。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Perlie Mong, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Perlie Mong。

So, can I – sorry, can I bring you back to the hedge?

那麼，我可以──抱歉，我可以帶你回到樹籬嗎？

So, obviously, the hedge is a very large component of the way you manage the interest rate risk.

因此，顯然對沖是管理利率風險的一個非常重要的組成部分。

So with the scale of the hedge, does that mean that your sensitivity to long rates would be higher than perhaps other banks or your peers or just all as equal would you expect more sensitivity to the long rates because the reason I'm asking is because there's obviously a lot of discussion around neutral rates in Europe and in the UK.

因此，從對沖的規模來看，是否意味著您對長期利率的敏感度會高於其他銀行或您的同行，或者在同等條件下，您是否預計對長期利率的敏感度會更高，因為我問這個問題的原因是因為歐洲和英國顯然有很多關於中性利率的討論。

So I'm just wondering is the reason why your sensitivity is a bit lower in a parallel shift scenario is, because maybe there's a little bit of difference between a short end and a long end, and so that's the first part of the question.

所以我只是想知道為什麼在平行移位的情況下你的靈敏度會低一些，因為短端和長端之間可能存在一點差異，所以這是問題的第一部分。

And the second part is that it sounds like the notional is more stable than we all might have expected previously.

第二部分聽起來概念比我們之前預期的更穩定。

And you previously assumed a reinvestment of 75% of the maturing hedges.

您之前假設了 75% 的到期對沖進行再投資。

I guess the question is, does it matter whether you reinvest or just simply let it roll off?

我想問題在於，是否重新投資或只是簡單地放任不管重要嗎？

Because obviously, reinvesting into a higher yield is a positive.

因為顯然，再投資以獲得更高的收益是件好事。

But equally, if you run off a 1.5% hedge and then just sort of let it roll on to the variable rate.

但同樣，如果您採用 1.5% 的對沖，然後就讓它轉到浮動利率。

That is removing a negative and removing a drag.

這便是消除負面影響並消除阻力。

So does that matter whether you are reinvesting or not?

那麼，無論您是否進行再投資，這重要嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Perlie.

謝謝，Perlie。

I will take both of those.

我都會選這兩個。

The first is, the tenor of what we're hedging is between 2 and 7.

首先，我們所對沖的期限在 2 到 7 之間。

I wouldn't say we're any more sensitive to the long end of the curve than others.

我不會說我們比其他人對曲線的長端更敏感。

We really try and reflect what we think the varying behavioral lives of the different pockets of deposits that we have.

我們確實嘗試去反映我們所擁有的不同存款群體的不同行為生活。

So I wouldn't call that out as a key difference.

因此我不會將此視為一個主要的區別。

And then on your second point, just to bring everybody back to this, the [75] and the [170] was indicated to give you some maps that you could then update as we go rather than a specific forecast from us to the extent that the notional is more stable.

然後關於你的第二點，只是為了讓大家回到這一點，[75] 和 [170] 表明會給你一些地圖，然後你可以在我們進行過程中進行更新，而不是我們給出具體的預測，以使概念更加穩定。

I mean, clearly we have a choice every single quarter or every single month as it rolls.

我的意思是，顯然我們每個季度或每個月都會有一個選擇。

At the moment, you're right, we're getting a pickup from that maturity as it rolls off, even if we just left it overnight.

目前，你是對的，即使我們只是在一夜之間離開，我們也正在從這種成熟中受益。

The difference that the structural hedge gives you is it obviously secures it.

結構性對沖給您帶來的區別在於它顯然可以保證安全。

So the structural hedge gives you certainty, which is why we do it programmatically, and why we're really focused on how much income are we locking in to '25 and '26, which we've shown you again on page 10.

因此，結構性對沖可以為您提供確定性，這就是我們以程序化方式進行操作的原因，也是我們真正關注在'25 和'26 年鎖定多少收入的原因，我們在第 10 頁再次向您展示了這一點。

So that locked-in number is now GBP12.4 billion over the three years.

因此，三年內鎖定的數字現在是124億英鎊。

So for us it's really about the certainty and stability of NII rather than the opportunist kind of every month passing.

因此，對我們來說，真正重要的是 NII 的確定性和穩定性，而不是每個月都投機取巧。

And just to remind you, that equivalent number was GBP8.6 billion in February.

需要提醒您的是，2 月份的對應數字為 86 億英鎊。

Okay, thank you, Perlie.

好的，謝謝你，Perlie。

I think we are going to our last questions in the queue, please.

我想我們現在要開始回答隊列中的最後一個問題了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Coombs, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安德魯·庫姆斯（Andrew Coombs）。

Morning, Dave.

早上好，戴夫。

Two questions, one more precise, one broad.

兩個問題，一個比較精確，一個比較廣泛。

On the precise question, just Pillar 2 offset.

關於精確的問題，只是第 2 柱偏移。

You talk about the Pillar 2 modest increase followed by a part offset of the later RWA inflation.

您談到了第二支柱的適度增長，隨後是後期 RWA 通膨的部分抵消。

It's probably too early, but anything you can provide in terms of quantum and does that potentially even change your 13% to 14% Q1 ratio target.

現在可能還為時過早，但您可以提供任何關於量子的資訊嗎？

So, that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Second question, much more broad-based question, looking into the budget, thinking about both the UK business and the investment bank.

第二個問題，是一個更廣泛的問題，涉及預算、英國業務和投資銀行。

Assuming we don't get a bank tax, is there anything else you're particularly looking at in terms of when you're thinking about future customer activity, be that CGT in the buy-to-let market, be it employers, national insurance contributions and the SMEs, et cetera, et cetera?

假設我們不徵收銀行稅，當您考慮未來的客戶活動時，還有什麼特別關注的嗎，例如買房出租市場的資本利得稅、雇主、國民保險繳款和中小企業等等？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Andy.

謝謝你，安迪。

So, really too early to say.

所以，現在說還太早。

What we've called out here is that, as you can imagine, in advance of implementing this model, we actually have been holding some Pillar 2A already.

我們在這裡指出的是，你可以想像，在實施這一模式之前，我們實際上已經持有一些第 2A 支柱。

There may be some modest increase in that before we implement the model in full.

在我們全面實施該模型之前，這一數字可能會略有增加。

So that's all we're calling out.

這就是我們要呼籲的全部。

It's difficult to give any specific guidance around quantum or exact timing, but you'll note that we said modest.

很難就量子或確切時間給出任何具體指導，但你會注意到我們說的是適度。

And just reiterating, we are already holding pillar 2A for this.

我再次重申，我們已經為此制定了支柱 2A。

And then the other point I'd make is that obviously we still await some Basel guidance from the PRA.

我想說的另一點是，顯然我們仍在等待 PRA 提供巴塞爾協議的指導。

So there is some expectation that we'll get some guidance around Pillar 2 offsets where they're really trying to avoid double counting between Pillar 1 in Basel and Pillar 2A that exists currently.

因此，有人期望我們能得到一些有關第二支柱抵消的指導，他們實際上試圖避免巴塞爾協議第一支柱和目前存在的第二支柱A之間的重複計算。

And really, we need to see all this put together holistically before we give you firmer guidance.

事實上，我們需要全面地了解所有這些情況，然後才能給您更堅定的指導。

And on the budget, listen, obviously, we're a large UK bank which operates across different sectors of the economy.

關於預算，聽著，顯然，我們是一家大型英國銀行，業務涉及經濟的不同領域。

So whether it's taxation, whether it's borrowing and financing by the government, whether it's private investment and helping with public investment, whether it's individual investment behavior that comes out of whatever the budget says, we would expect to see activity across everything which we do.

因此，無論是稅收、政府借貸和融資、私人投資和公共投資援助，還是預算中規定的個人投資行為，我們都希望看到我們所做的每一件事都有活動。

I can't tell you where and how much and what the net of it is, but expect us to be actively engaged across all the different dimensions of it.

我無法告訴您它的規模、範圍和淨值，但我希望我們能夠積極參與其各個不同維度。

With that, thank you everybody.

謝謝大家。

Yes, thank you very much everybody.

是的，非常感謝大家。

I really look forward to seeing some of you on the road and we will see you at the sell-side breakfast in November.

我非常期待在路上見到你們，我們將在 11 月的賣方早餐會上見到你們。

But thank you for your continued interest in Barclays.

但感謝您對巴克萊的持續關注。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。