Barclays PLC (BCS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclays Q3 2024 results analyst and investor conference call. I will now hand over to C.S. Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, before I hand over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2024 年第三季業績分析師和投資者電話會議。現在我將把工作交給集團執行長 C.S. Venkatakrishnan，然後再交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Barclays' third-quarter 2024 results call.

大家早安，感謝您參加巴克萊 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。

As a reminder, as our investor updates in February, we set out a three-year plan to deliver a better run, more strongly performing and higher return in Barclays. I am encouraged by our progress three quarters in. We are continuing to execute in a disciplined way against this plan and are on track to achieve our 2024 as well as our 2026 targets.

謹此提醒，隨著我們的投資者在二月份更新信息，我們制定了一項三年計劃，旨在為巴克萊銀行提供更好的營運、更強勁的業績和更高的回報。我對我們三個季度的進展感到鼓舞。

Return on tangible equity was 12.3% in the third quarter and 11.5% year-to-date. We achieved this even as we improved tangible book value by GBP0.35 per share year-on-year. to 351p at the end of the quarter. This resulted from strong organic capital generation and the meaningful impact of buybacks in reducing our share count.

第三季有形股本回報率為 12.3%，年初至今為 11.5%。儘管我們每股有形帳面價值比去年同期增加了 0.35 英鎊，但我們還是實現了這一目標。季末降至 351 便士。這是由於強勁的有機資本生成以及回購對減少我們的股份數量產生的有意義的影響。

Total income for Q3 was GBP6.5 billion and is GBP19.8 billion year-to-date, with a continued focus on the quality and stability of our income mix. Given the ongoing healthy support from our structural hedge, we remain confident on the strength of the income profile of our business in its falling rate environment. These factors lead to our upgrading Barclays UK as well as group NII targets today. We continue to control costs well and are seeing the benefits of the cost actions which we took in the fourth quarter of 2023.

第三季的總收入為 65 億英鎊，年初至今為 198 億英鎊，我們將繼續關注收入組合的品質和穩定性。鑑於我們的結構性對沖持續提供健康支持，我們對在利率下降的環境下我們業務的收入狀況仍然充滿信心。這些因素導致我們今天上調了巴克萊英國以及集團 NII 的目標。我們繼續很好地控製成本，並看到了我們在 2023 年第四季採取的成本行動的好處。

Our cost-to-income ratio was 61% both in the third quarter and year to date. Impairment charges have improved in the US consumer bank in line with our expectations. and our overall credit performance was strong, particularly in the UK, with a group loan loss rate of 42 basis points year-to-date and 37 basis points in the quarter.

第三季和今年迄今，我們的成本收入比均為 61%。美國消費銀行的減損準備有所改善，符合我們的預期。我們的整體信貸表現強勁，尤其是在英國，今年迄今的集團貸款損失率為 42 個基點，本季為 37 個基點。

Importantly, we also remain well capitalized, ending the quarter with a 13.8% CET1 ratio, comfortably within our target range of 13% to 14%.

重要的是，我們的資本充足，本季末 CET1 比率為 13.8%，完全在我們 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍內。

Across the bank and within each of our five divisions, We are focused on delivering an improved operational and financial performance. Anna will take you through our financial performance division by division shortly, but let me cover first a few highlights.

在整個銀行和我們的五個部門中，我們致力於提高營運和財務績效。安娜很快就會帶您逐一部門了解我們的財務績效，但首先讓我介紹一些亮點。

Barclays UK delivered a return on tangible equity of 23.4% for the quarter and over 20% year-to-date. We have seen a continued stabilization in deposit balances and gross lending trends are encouraging.

巴克萊英國公司本季的有形股本回報率為 23.4%，年初至今超過 20%。我們看到存款餘額持續穩定，貸款總額趨勢令人鼓舞。

We're on track to complete the acquisition of Tesco Bank on November 1 this year. This strategic relationship with the UK's largest retailer forms part of our commitment to invest in our home market, where Barclays has a crucial role to play in mobilizing the finance and investment which is required to deliver growth.

我們預計今年 11 月 1 日完成對 Tesco Bank 的收購。與英國最大零售商的這種策略關係構成了我們投資國內市場的承諾的一部分，巴克萊在調動實現成長所需的金融和投資方面發揮著至關重要的作用。

Our partnership with Tesco will help create new distribution channels for our unsecured lending and deposit businesses. and our expertise in partnership cards developed over decades in the US will further enhance the well-established Tesco Club Card Quality Scheme.

我們與樂購的合作將有助於為我們的無擔保借貸和存款業務創建新的分銷管道。我們在美國數十年來開發的合作夥伴卡專業知識將進一步增強完善的樂購俱樂部卡品質計畫。

In the investment bank, we are committed to delivering improved RWA and operational productivity to drive higher returns. RoTE for Q3 was 8.8%. Year-on-year, the investment bank has delivered positive cost-to-income [JOS] and improved market share in investment banking.

在投資銀行領域，我們致力於提高 RWA 和營運生產力，以推動更高的回報。第三季的 RoTE 為 8.8%。與去年同期相比，該投資銀行實現了正的成本收入比 [JOS]，並提高了投資銀行業務的市場份額。

And the US Consumer Bank delivered an improved RoTE performance at 10.9% as we continue to grow the business and drive operational improvement, while impairment charges reduce against the background of subdued inflation and a strong labor market.

隨著我們繼續發展業務並推動營運改善，美國消費者銀行的 RoTE 業績提高至 10.9%，同時在通膨低迷和勞動力市場強勁的背景下減損費用減少。

Overall, as an organization, we remain execution-focused. We achieved a further GBP300 million of gross cost savings this quarter, taking the total for the first nine months to GBP700 million, on track for our targeted GBP1 billion for the full year of 2024.

整體而言，作為一個組織，我們仍然注重執行力。本季我們進一步節省了 3 億英鎊的總成本，使前 9 個月的總成本達到 7 億英鎊，預計將實現 2024 年全年 10 億英鎊的目標。

Simplifying the bank has been an important part of our strategy. We continue to make progress with the non-strategic business disposal that we spoke about at our investor update.

簡化銀行一直是我們策略的重要組成部分。我們在投資者更新中談到的非策略性業務處置持續取得進展。

Earlier this week, we announced the sale of our non-performing Italian mortgage portfolio. Finally, we are about two-thirds of the way through executing the GBP750 million share buyback which we announced in the first half of the year, which together with the first half dividend is the first step towards achieving our target of greater than GBP10 billion of capital return by 2026.

本週早些時候，我們宣佈出售義大利不良抵押貸款投資組合。最後，我們在上半年宣布的 7.5 億英鎊股票回購計畫已完成約三分之二，這與上半年股息一起是實現我們超過 100 億英鎊目標的第一步。

I will now hand over to Anna to take you through our third-quarter financials.

現在我將請安娜向您介紹我們的第三季財務狀況。

Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone. On slide 6, we have laid out Barclays' financial highlights for the third quarter as well as year-to-date. Profit before tax was GBP2.2 billion, up 18% from GBP1.9 billion in Q3 '23. Before going into the detail, I would just note that the quarterly performance was impacted by a weaker US dollar, which is a headwind to income and profits, but positively impacts cost impairment and RWAs. I'll call these out where appropriate.

謝謝你，Venkat，大家早安。在幻燈片 6 中，我們列出了巴克萊銀行第三季以及年初至今的財務亮點。稅前利潤為 22 億英鎊，比 2023 年第三季的 19 億英鎊增加 18%。在詳細介紹之前，我只想指出，季度業績受到美元疲軟的影響，這對收入和利潤來說是不利因素，但對成本減損和風險加權資產產生了正面影響。我會在適當的時候指出這些。

Turning to slide 7. Q3 performance is in line with the plan we laid out in February. We delivered a statutory RoTE of 12.3% up on last year's 11% and the year-to-date RoTE of 11.5% leaves us on track for our statutory RoTE target for 2024 of greater than 10%. We continue to target a 2024 RoTE excluding inorganic activity of circa 10.5%. We now expect that the impact of all inorganic activity in 2024, including Tesco Bank, will be broadly neutral. So I don't anticipate a material difference between the two measures.

轉向幻燈片 7。我們的法定 RoTE 為 12.3%，高於去年的 11%，而年初至今的 RoTE 為 11.5%，這使我們有望實現 2024 年超過 10% 的法定 RoTE 目標。我們繼續將 2024 年排除無機活動的 RoTE 目標定為約 10.5%。我們現在預計 2024 年所有無機活動（包括樂購銀行）的影響將大致呈現中性。因此，我預計這兩種措施之間不會有實質差異。

As in the first half of the year, I was looking for four things in our performance. Income stability, cost discipline and progress on efficiency savings, credit performance, and a robust capital position. On all four, we are where we expected to be, and I'll cover these in more detail on the subsequent slides.

與今年上半年一樣，我在我們的表現中尋找四件事。收入穩定、成本控制以及效率節約、信用表現和穩健的資本狀況的進展。在所有四個方面，我們都達到了預期的目標，我將在後續投影片中更詳細地介紹這些內容。

Starting with income on slide 8. Total income was up 5% year-on-year at GBP6.5 billion. Excluding FX, income was up 7% year-on-year. Since our investor update in February, we have been emphasizing continued stability in our income streams. Revenues from retail and corporate as well as financing in the investment bank provided ballast to our income profile and together contributed 74% of income in Q3.

從幻燈片 8 中的收入開始。不計外匯，營收年增7%。自二月的投資者更新以來，我們一直強調收入流的持續穩定性。來自零售和企業的收入以及投資銀行的融資為我們的收入狀況提供了穩定的支撐，合計貢獻了第三季收入的 74%。

Turning to net interest income on slide 9. Group NII excluding investment bank and head office was stable year on year at circa GBP2.8 billion. We now expect our full year group NII to be greater than GBP11 billion. Within this, we have increased NII guidance for Barclays UK to circa GBP6.5 billion, having previously guided to circa GBP6.3 billion. Both numbers exclude the impact of the Tesco Bank acquisition.

轉向幻燈片 9 中的淨利息收入。我們現在預計全年集團 NII 將超過 110 億英鎊。其中，我們將巴克萊英國的NII指引提高至約65億英鎊，先前指引為約63億英鎊。這兩個數字都排除了樂購銀行收購的影響。

We also now assume a UK bank rate of 4.5% by the end of the year, or a total of 325 basis point cuts in 2024 compared to the 5 we had assumed in February. Deposits continue to stabilize and increased structural hedge income continues to provide a strong tailwind, as you can see on slide 10.

我們現在也假設英國銀行利率到今年年底為 4.5%，即 2024 年總計比我們 2 月假設的 5 個基點下調 325 個基點。正如您在幻燈片 10 中看到的那樣，存款繼續穩定，結構性對沖收入的增加繼續提供強勁的推動力。

As a reminder, the structural hedge is designed to reduce volatility in NII and manage interest rate risk. As rates have risen, the hedge has dampened the growth in our NII and in a falling rate environment, we will see the benefit from the protection that it gives us. The expected NII tailwind from the hedge is significant and predictable.

需要提醒的是，結構性對沖旨在減少NII的波動性並管理利率風險。隨著利率上升，對沖抑制了我們NII的成長，在利率下降的環境中，我們將看到它為我們提供的保護帶來的好處。對沖帶來的預期NII 推動作用是顯著且可預測的。

GBP12.4 billion of aggregate gross income is now locked in over the three years to the end of 2026, up from GBP11.7 billion at Q2. We have around GBP170 billion of hedges maturing between '24 and '26 at an average yield of 1.5%.

截至 2026 年底的三年內，總營收鎖定為 124 億英鎊，高於第二季的 117 億英鎊。我們有約 1700 億英鎊的對沖在 24 年至 26 年期間到期，平均收益率為 1.5%。

As we said in February, reinvesting around three quarters of this at around 3.5% would compound over the next three years to increase structural hedge income in 2026 by circa GBP2 billion versus 2023. Given the high proportion of balances hedged and the programmatic approach we take, we are relatively insensitive to the short-term impact of potential rate cuts. Please note that we have added additional disclosure on slide 38 in the appendix on the split of the structural hedge income allocation across our five divisions.

正如我們在2 月所說，將其中約四分之三以約3.5% 的利率進行再投資，將在未來三年內實現複利，從而使2026 年的結構性對沖收入比2023 年增加約20 億英鎊。請注意，我們在附錄第 38 張幻燈片中添加了關於結構性對沖收入分配在我們五個部門之間的額外揭露。

Moving on to costs on slide 11. Total costs in Q3 were flat year-on-year at GBP4 billion. Excluding FX, costs were up 2% in the same period. We delivered a further GBP0.3 billion of gross efficiency savings, bringing the total for the nine months to GBP0.7 billion. These efficiencies have helped us to more than offset inflation and created capacity for investment. We remain on track to deliver GBP1 billion for the year and continue to expect a further GBP1 billion of efficiency savings across 2025 and 2026. Our cost-to-income ratio was 61% in Q3 and for the nine months year to date, we remain on track for our full year target of around 63%.

接下來討論投影片 11 上的成本。剔除外匯因素，同期成本上漲 2%。我們又實現了 3 億英鎊的總效率節約，使 9 個月的總效率達到 7 億英鎊。這些效率不僅幫助我們抵消了通貨膨脹並創造了投資能力。我們仍有望在今年實現10 億英鎊的目標，並繼續預計2025 年和2026 年將進一步實現10 億英鎊的效率節省。我們仍保持有望實現 63% 左右的全年目標。

Turning now to impairment, where credit conditions continue to trend positively and in line with our expectations. The Q3 impairment charge of GBP374 million equated to a loan loss rate of 37 basis points. The US consumer bank charge reduced GBP276 million, a loan loss rate of 411 basis points, which benefited from methodology enhancements in the quarter.

現在談談減損問題，信貸狀況持續呈現正向趨勢，符合我們的預期。第三季減損費用為 3.74 億英鎊，相當於貸款損失率 37 個基點。美國消費者銀行費用減少了 2.76 億英鎊，貸款損失率下降了 411 個基點，這得益於本季方法論的改進。

Our UK customers continue to act prudently, with few current signs of stress evidenced by continued low and stable delinquencies. The Barclays UK charge was just GBP16 million, a loan loss rate of 3 basis points, and this included a post-model adjustment release of around GBP50 million.

我們的英國客戶繼續謹慎行事，目前幾乎沒有出現因拖欠率持續較低且穩定而表現出壓力的跡象。巴克萊英國的費用僅為 1600 萬英鎊，貸款損失率為 3 個基點，其中包括約 5000 萬英鎊的模型調整後釋放。

I'd remind you that under IFRS 9 accounting, we expect to incur a day one impairment charge for the Tesco unsecured lending balances on completion in Q4. As we said in February, the Tesco Bank acquisition, alongside our broader UK balance sheet growth plans, are factored into our guidance for the Barclays UK loan loss rate to track towards 35 basis points over the life of our three-year plan. All in all, we reiterate our through-the-cycle guidance of 50 to 60 basis points for the group, and expect FY24 to be at the bottom of this range, inclusive of the estimated day one impact of Tesco Bank.

我想提醒您，根據 IFRS 9 會計，我們預計將在第四季度完成時對樂購無擔保貸款餘額產生第一天減損費用。正如我們在2 月份所說，收購樂購銀行以及我們更廣泛的英國資產負債表增長計劃，都被納入我們對巴克萊英國貸款損失率的指導中，以在我們的三年計劃期內向35 個基點邁進。總而言之，我們重申對該集團 50 至 60 個基點的整個週期指導，並預計 2024 財年將處於該範圍的底部，包括樂購銀行估計的第一天影響。

Excluding the impact of Tesco Bank, we would expect to be below this range as we are seeing limited signs of stress in our UK customer base. And our guidance for the US Consumer Bank impairment charge to improve overall in the second half remains unchanged.

排除樂購銀行的影響，我們預計會低於該範圍，因為我們看到英國客戶群面臨的壓力跡像有限。我們對下半年美國消費者銀行減損準備整體改善的指引維持不變。

Looking now in more detail at the US consumer bank charge on slide 13. The mix of reserve bills to write-offs within the impairment charge for the US consumer bank continues to trend as we guided. We expected write-offs to increase during 2024, which you can see is the case from the light blue bars on this page. 30- and 90-day delinquency are broadly stable, and we expect them to follow seasonal trends. There is no change to our impairment guidance.

現在更詳細地查看投影片 13 上的美國消費者銀行費用。我們預計 2024 年沖銷將增加，您可以從本頁的淺藍色條中看到這種情況。 30 天和 90 天的拖欠率大致穩定，我們預計它們將遵循季節性趨勢。我們的減損指引沒有變化。

As mentioned, we still expect the US consumer bank impairment charge to improve overall in the second half, resulting in a lower full-year charge in 2024 versus 2023. And we continue to guide to a low loss rate, trending towards a long-term average of 400 basis points.

如前所述，我們仍然預計下半年美國消費者銀行減損準備將整體改善，從而導致 2024 年全年減損準備較 2023 年有所下降。 400個基點。

Our coverage ratios remain strong. Our IFRS 9 coverage ratio reduced 70 basis points quarter on quarter to 10.3%, primarily driven by a debt sale, whilst our CECL coverage ratio increased 20 basis points to 8.1%.

我們的覆蓋率仍然很高。我們的 IFRS 9 覆蓋率較上季下降 70 個基點至 10.3%，主要是因為債務出售，而我們的 CECL 覆蓋率增加了 20 個基點至 8.1%。

Before going into individual business performance, let me say a few words on the lending trends that we are seeing. Gross lending activity is encouraging across our portfolios, reflecting our focus on growth in the UK. In mortgages, we are seeing a pickup in gross lending, with increased flow in higher loan-to-value lending, and customer confidence is also returning with strong purchase activity from first-time buyers and home movers.

在討論個人業務績效之前，讓我先談談我們所看到的貸款趨勢。我們的投資組合的總貸款活動令人鼓舞，反映出我們對英國成長的關注。在抵押貸款方面，我們看到貸款總額有所回升，貸款價值比較高的貸款流量有所增加，而且隨著首次購房者和搬家者的強勁購買活動，客戶信心也在恢復。

In a similar vein, UK card acquisition volumes remain strong, We have added around 800,000 new Barclay Card customers this year, consistent with our strategy to regain market share in unsecured lending. In the UK corporate bank, we have extended client lending facilities by deploying around GBP1.2 billion additional RWAs this year, which we expect to drive lending balance growth as customers draw down. And we have seen some evidence of this in Q3.

同樣，英國銀行卡收購量依然強勁。在英國企業銀行，我們今年透過額外部署約 12 億英鎊的 RWA 擴大了客戶貸款便利，我們預計這將在客戶提款時推動貸款餘額成長。我們在第三季看到了一些這方面的證據。

Turning now to Barclays UK. You can see Barclays UK financial highlights and targets on slide 15, but I will talk to slide 16. RoTE was 23.4% in the quarter and total income was GBP1.9 billion, up GBP73 million year-on-year, or 4%. NII of GBP1.7 billion was up GBP69 million on Q2 as NIM increased by 12 basis points to 3.34%.

現在轉向英國巴克萊銀行。您可以在投影片15 上看到巴克萊英國的財務亮點和目標，但我將討論投影片16。 。第二季NII為17億英鎊，較第二季增加6,900萬英鎊，NIM增加12個基點至3.34%。

As you can see on the bottom chart, we saw continued structural hedge momentum and small tailwinds from product margin and lending volume. We have updated our 2024 BUK NII guidance to circa GBP6.5 billion from circa 6.3 billion, excluding Tesco Bank, reflecting balance sheet trends turning more positive earlier than expected. Non-NII was GBP280 million in Q3, and we continue to expect a run rate above GBP250 million per quarter going forward, although we expect the securitization that we announced earlier in the week to have a modest negative impact on non-NII in Q4.

正如您在底部圖表中看到的，我們看到持續的結構性對沖勢頭以及產品保證金和貸款量的小幅推動。我們已將 2024 年 BUK NII 指引從約 63 億英鎊更新為約 65 億英鎊（不包括特易購銀行），反映出資產負債表趨勢比預期更早轉為正面。第三季非NII 為2.8 億英鎊，我們繼續預計未來每季的運行率將超過2.5 億英鎊，儘管我們預計本週稍早宣布的證券化將對第四季的非NII 產生適度的負面影響。

Total costs were circa GBP1 billion, down 4% year-on-year, and versus Q2, demonstrating continued progress on delivering efficiency savings from the ongoing BUK transformation. The cost-to-income ratio improved to 52% this quarter.

總成本約為 10 億英鎊，與第二季度相比同比下降 4%，這表明正在進行的 BUK 轉型在提高效率方面取得了持續進展。本季成本收入比改善至52%。

Moving on to the Barclays UK customer balance sheet on slide 17. The stabilization and deposit trends that we called out at Q2 has continued in Q3. Deposit balance is reduced by GBP0.5 billion in the quarter, a similar quantum to Q2. Net lending was broadly flat in the quarter at GBP199 billion. Within this, we saw growth in mortgages, cards and unsecured personal lending, offset by continued pay-down of run-off portfolios, notably government-backed lending in business banking.

接下來是投影片 17 上的巴克萊英國客戶資產負債表。本季存款餘額減少 5 億英鎊，與第二季類似。本季淨貸款基本持平，為 1,990 億英鎊。其中，我們看到抵押貸款、信用卡和無擔保個人貸款的成長，但被徑流投資組合的持續減少所抵消，特別是政府支持的商業銀行貸款。

As Venkat mentioned, we have made good progress on the acquisition of Tesco Bank. Following the court process last week, we will complete the acquisition on November 1 with estimated financials to be confirmed at full year '24 results.

正如Venkat所提到的，我們在收購樂購銀行方面取得了良好進展。繼上週的法庭程序之後，我們將於 11 月 1 日完成收購，預計財務數據將在 24 年全年業績中得到確認。

The current estimated day one financial impact is a circa GBP0.3 billion net positive profit before tax, driven by an income gain resulting from consideration paid being below fair value, which is partially offset by a day one impairment charge. The impairment charge assumes all balances are required as Stage 1 loans, reflecting 12-month expected losses, with subsequent impairment bills required in future years.

目前估計的第一天財務影響約為 3 億英鎊的稅前淨利潤，這是由於支付的對價低於公允價值而產生的收入增益，該收益被第一天減損費用部分抵消。減損費用假設所有餘額都需要作為第一階段貸款，反映 12 個月的預期損失，並在未來幾年需要後續減損票據。

The profit before tax benefits statutory group RoTE in 2024 by about 50 basis points. Overall, when including the circa GBP7 billion RWAs, we expect to see around a 20 basis points negative impact to the Group CET1 ratio, which is lower than the circa 30 basis points previously guided.

2024 年法定集團 RoTE 的稅前利潤將提高約 50 個基點。總體而言，當包括約 70 億英鎊的 RWA 時，我們預計集團 CET1 比率將受到約 20 個基點的負面影響，低於先前指導的約 30 個基點。

Moving on to the UK corporate bank. UK Corporate Bank delivered Q3 RoTE of 18.8%. Income grew 1% year-on-year, to GBP445 million. Non-NII was flat year-on-year, but down in the quarter, mainly due to lower income from transactional products. This line can be variable due to the inclusion of non-product items, such as liquidity pool income. However, we do expect non-NII to increase over time as we invest in our digital and lending propositions.

轉向英國企業銀行。英國企業銀行第三季的 RoTE 為 18.8%。營收年增1%，達到4.45億英鎊。非NII年持平，但本季有所下降，主要是由於交易產品收入下降。由於包含非產品項目（例如流動性池收入），該行可能會發生變化。然而，隨著我們對數位和貸款業務的投資，我們確實預計非國家資訊基礎設施將隨著時間的推移而增加。

Total costs were flat year-on-year at GBP222 million with future investment spend expected as we continue to support our growth initiative. Lending balances decreased by GBP0.9 billion in the quarter and underlying growth was more than offset by a circa GBP2 billion reduction due to refinements to the perimeter with the International Corporate Bank. This same adjustment also impacted deposit balances.

總成本與去年同期持平，為 2.22 億英鎊，隨著我們繼續支持我們的成長計劃，預計未來的投資支出。本季貸款餘額減少 9 億英鎊，基本成長被國際企業銀行業務範圍優化導致的約 20 億英鎊減少所抵銷。同樣的調整也影響了存款餘額。

Turning now to private banking and wealth management on slide 22. Q3 RoTE was 29% supported by strong growth in client assets and liabilities up around GBP3 billion on Q2 and around GBP23 billion versus the prior year. Income reduced 3% year-on-year, driven by lower NII from the non-repeat of a timing-related one-off in Q3 '23, which offset growth from increased client assets and liabilities. Versus Q2, NII was up 1%, driven by increased client balances overall. Costs were up 3% year-on-year as we continued to invest in this business, including in growing platforms, hiring, and efficiency-related measures.

現在轉向幻燈片22 上的私人銀行和財富管理。英鎊。營收年減 3%，原因是 23 年第 3 季不再重複與時間相關的一次性事件，導致 NII 下降，抵銷了客戶資產和負債增加帶來的成長。與第二季相比，由於客戶餘額整體增加，NII 成長了 1%。隨著我們繼續對該業務進行投資，包括發展平台、招聘和效率相關措施，成本同比增長了 3%。

Turning now to the investment bank. Q3 RoTE was 8.8% up 0.8% year-on-year. Total income of GBP2.9 billion was up 6% year-on-year and total costs up 4% delivering positive costs to income jaws. Excluding FX, total income was up 9% year-on-year and costs up 7% year-on-year.

現在轉向投資銀行。第三季 RoTE 為 8.8%，年成長 0.8%。總收入為 29 億英鎊，年增 6%，總成本增加 4%，為收入帶來正面的影響。不計外匯，總營收年增 9%，成本年增 7%。

RWA productivity measured by income over average RWAs was 5.7% in the quarter, 30 basis points better year-on-year, with year-to-date RWA productivity at 6%. Period-end RWAs were GBP9.1 billion lower versus Q2 at GBP194 billion with FX accounting for around 6 billion of the move. At Q2 we had an uptick in RWAs which I said was temporary in nature. The reduction we've seen this quarter excluding FX is a reversal of that.

本季以營收與平均 RWA 衡量的 RWA 生產力為 5.7%，較去年同期高出 30 個基點，而年初至今的 RWA 生產力為 6%。期末風險加權資產較第二季減少 91 億英鎊，為 1,940 億英鎊，其中外匯佔其中約 60 億英鎊。在第二季度，我們的 RWA 有所上升，我說這本質上是暫時的。我們在本季看到的不包括外匯在內的減少是相反的。

Now looking at the specific income line in more detail on slide 25. Using the US dollar figures as usual to help comparison to our US peers, markets income was up 7% year on year. FICC income was up 7% driven by a strong performance in credit, securitized products and fixed-income financing. Equities income was up 7% aided by strong performance in cash equities and equity derivatives as we helped clients through market volatility in August. Financing income was up 6% year-on-year, reflecting increased client flows and balances, with this business delivering more than GBP750 million in four of the last seven quarters.

現在更詳細地查看幻燈片 25 中的具體收入線。由於信貸、證券化產品和固定收益融資的強勁表現，FICC 收入成長了 7%。我們幫助客戶度過了 8 月份的市場波動，這得益於現金股票和股票衍生品的強勁表現，股票收入增長了 7%。融資收入年增 6%，反映出客戶流量和餘額的增加，該業務在過去七個季度中有四個季度實現了超過 7.5 億英鎊的收入。

Investment banking fee income in dollars was up 67% year-on-year with gains across all products, in particular a strong quarter in advisory which was up 146%. DCM was up 55% delivering improved performance across both investment grade and leveraged finance. ECM was up 9% against a wallet that was down 6%. Our year-to-date banking fee share was 3.5%. We have increased share across most products in a rising industry wallet, but we still have work to do to sustainably improve this.

以美元計算的投資銀行費用收入年增 67%，所有產品均有所成長，特別是諮詢業務的季度表現強勁，成長了 146%。 DCM 上漲了 55%，投資等級和槓桿融資的表現均有所改善。 ECM 上漲 9%，而錢包則下跌 6%。我們年初至今的銀行費用比重為 3.5%。我們在不斷增長的行業錢包中增加了大多數產品的份額，但我們仍然有工作要做，以可持續地改善這一點。

Finally, in the international corporate bank, transactions banking was up 5%. We continue to grow US deposit balances which we see as a lead indicator of future client product take-up and fee income growth. This was more than offset by an GBP85 million impact from fair value losses on leveraged finance lending, which are reported in corporate lending, resulting in total ICB income being down 21% year-on-year.

最後，國際企業銀行的交易銀行業務成長了 5%。我們繼續增加美國存款餘額，我們將其視為未來客戶產品使用和費用收入成長的領先指標。這被企業貸款中報告的槓桿融資貸款公允價值損失 8,500 萬英鎊的影響所抵消，導致 ICB 總收入年減 21%。

Turning now to the US Consumer Bank. US consumer bank generated a RoTE of 10.9% up from 0.4% in Q3 last year, mainly due to the lower impairment charge following a higher provision build in the second half of 2023. Income fell 2% year-on-year driven by a weaker US dollar. Excluding FX, income was up 2% driven by an increase in card balances which were up GBP1.4 billion year-on-year on a reported basis to $31.6 billion. NIM was stable on Q2 at 10.4% but down from 10.9% in the prior year, reflecting higher rewards earned by customers through increased spend. In Q4 these impacts are expected to be less of a headwind and we continue to target a NIM for this business of greater than 12% by 2026.

現在轉向美國消費者銀行。美國消費銀行的 RoTE 為 10.9%，高於去年第三季的 0.4%，主要是由於 2023 年下半年撥備增加後減損費用降低。不包括外匯在內，由於卡餘額增加，收入增長了 2%，據報告，卡餘額同比增加 14 億英鎊，達到 316 億美元。第二季淨利差穩定在 10.4%，但低於去年的 10.9%，反映出客戶透過增加支出獲得了更高的獎勵。在第四季度，這些影響預計將減少，我們繼續目標是到 2026 年該業務的淨利差 (NIM) 超過 12%。

In terms of the funding mix of the business, the proportion of core deposits was broadly stable versus Q2 at 66% as we target above 75% by 2026. Costs were down 3% on the prior year. As efficiency savings and the FX tailwind offset inflation and growth, driving a cost to income ratio of 50%.

就業務的融資結構而言，核心存款的比例與第二季度相比基本穩定在 66%，我們的目標是到 2026 年達到 75% 以上。由於效率節約和外匯順風抵消了通貨膨脹和成長，推動成本收入比達到 50%。

Excluding FX, costs were up 1%. We still expect costs to trend up modestly in Q4, as marketing spend during the holiday season will support continued growth in the business.

不包括外匯，成本上漲了 1%。我們仍然預計第四季度成本將小幅上升，因為假期期間的行銷支出將支持業務的持續成長。

Turning now to slide 28, and the summary of the financial impact from inorganic activity announced in 2024. As a reminder, at our Q2 results, we announced the disposal of our performing Italian mortgage portfolio and the German cards business.

現在轉向幻燈片 28，以及 2024 年宣布的無機活動的財務影響摘要。

Earlier this week, we announced the disposal of our non-performing Italian mortgage portfolio, which is expected to complete in Q4 '24. These disposals, along with the Tesco Bank acquisition, have a broadly neutral impact on statutory 2024 Group RoTE, whilst causing a circa 10 basis points drag to the CET1 ratio. These transactions are a key component of reshaping the bank to be more focused in areas we have competitive strength, enabling us to deliver higher future returns.

本週早些時候，我們宣布處置義大利不良抵押貸款投資組合，預計將於 24 年第四季完成。這些處置以及樂購銀行的收購對法定 2024 年集團 RoTE 產生了大致中性的影響，同時對 CET1 比率造成約 10 個基點的拖累。這些交易是重塑銀行的關鍵組成部分，使我們更加專注於我們擁有競爭優勢的領域，使我們能夠在未來提供更高的回報。

Turning now to the balance sheet and starting with our capital position. The CET1 ratio was 13.8% at the end of Q3, up 24 basis points versus Q2, and comfortably within our target range. This includes the impact of the ongoing GBP750 million half-year buyback that came off capital post the Q2 quarter end, 46 basis points of capital generated from profits in the quarter and a GBP4 billion reduction in RWAs, excluding FX. We continue to expect this year's total capital return to be broadly in line with the 2023 level of GBP3 billion, consistent with the capital distribution plan we laid out in February.

現在轉向資產負債表，從我們的資本狀況開始。第三季末，CET1 比率為 13.8%，比第二季上升 24 個基點，完全在我們的目標範圍內。這包括第二季末後正在進行的 7.5 億英鎊半年期回購的影響、本季利潤產生的資本 46 個基點以及 RWA（不包括外匯）減少 40 億英鎊。我們繼續預計今年的總資本回報率將與 2023 年 30 億英鎊的水平大致一致，這與我們 2 月制定的資本分配計劃一致。

Let me turn briefly to our regulatory capital and the upcoming changes under Basel 3.1 as well as the US Cards model migration. The combined expected RWA impact of GBP19 billion to GBP26 billion is in line with previous guidance of the lower end of 5% to 10% of group RWAs as at the end of 2023.

讓我簡單談談我們的監管資本和巴塞爾 3.1 下即將發生的變化以及美國卡模型遷移。預計 RWA 的綜合影響為 190 億至 260 億英鎊，與先前截至 2023 年底集團 RWA 5% 至 10% 下限的指導一致。

However, the timing has changed for both items. You will have seen that the PRA's Basel 3.1 implementation date moved to 1 January 2026 and the impact is expected to be between GBP8 billion and GBP15 billion post-litigation. The IRB migration of our US Cards portfolio has also moved from our prior expectation of Q1 2025 and will now take place after Basel 3.1 implementation for which we are building a Basel-compliant model.

然而，這兩個項目的時間都發生了變化。您將會看到，PRA 的巴塞爾 3.1 實施日期已移至 2026 年 1 月 1 日，預計訴訟後影響將在 80 億至 150 億英鎊之間。我們美國卡投資組合的 IRB 遷移也偏離了我們先前 2025 年第一季的預期，現在將在實施巴塞爾 3.1 後進行，我們正在為此建立符合巴塞爾標準的模型。

The total impact to RWAs from the IRB migration Bill stands at circa GBP16 billion, of which around GBP5 billion will be reflected at the time Basel 3.1 is implemented and is now included in our Basel 3.1 impact estimate. The remaining GBP11 billion relating to the IRB model will come after Basel 3.1 implementation at a date to be determined and is subject to model builds and portfolio changes over time.

IRB 移民法案對 RWA 的總影響約為 160 億英鎊，其中約 50 億英鎊將在巴塞爾 3.1 實施時反映出來，現已包含在我們的巴塞爾 3.1 影響估計中。與 IRB 模型相關的剩餘 110 億英鎊將在巴塞爾 3.1 實施後確定，具體日期將隨著時間的推移而受到模型構建和投資組合變化的影響。

Specific to this, there is likely to be a modest increase in Pillar 2A applicable at some point in 2025 and until the model is implemented. Reflecting the difference between models and the current standardized risk weighting, acknowledging we already hold Pillar 2A capital against the majority of this risk. As previously noted, the total impact of Basel 3.1 will also depend on further guidance from the PRA on the approach to Pillar 2A, where we expect some offsets for risk now to be capitalized under Pillar 1.

具體來說，在 2025 年的某個時候，適用的支柱 2A 可能會適度增加，直到模型實施為止。反映了模型與當前標準化風險權重之間的差異，承認我們已經持有 2A 支柱資本來應對大部分風險。如前所述，巴塞爾 3.1 的整體影響也將取決於 PRA 對支柱 2A 方法的進一步指導，我們預計現在將在支柱 1 下資本化一些風險抵消。

Risk-weighted assets decreased by GBP11 billion from Q2 to GBP340.4 billion, as you can see in more detail on slide 31. FX drove around GBP7 billion of the reduction, with lower investment bank and head office RWAs also contributing.

風險加權資產較第二季減少110 億英鎊，至3,404 億英鎊，如幻燈片31 中的更多詳細資訊所示。 。

As usual, a brief word on capital and liquidity on slide 32. We maintain a well-capitalized and liquid balance sheet with diverse sources of funding and a significant excess of deposits over loans.

像往常一樣，第 32 張幻燈片簡要介紹了資本和流動性。

Turning now to TNAV. TNAV for share increased 11p in the quarter and 35p year-on-year to 351p. Of the elements we controlled, attributable profit added 11p per share in the quarter and the share buyback which reduced our share count by 2% added 2p per share. We have seen further unwind of the negative movements in the cash flow hedge reserve in 2022-2023 which caused a drag on shareholders' equity and this added 9p in the quarter. These positive moves were partially offset by dividends paid and other reserve movements.

現在轉向 TNAV。本季股票 TNAV 成長 11 便士，年增 35 便士，達到 351 便士。在我們控制的要素中，本季每股歸屬利潤增加了 11 便士，而股票回購使我們的股份數量減少了 2%，每股增加了 2 便士。我們看到 2022-2023 年現金流對沖儲備的負面變動進一步緩解，這對股東權益造成了拖累，本季增加了 9 便士。這些積極措施被支付的股利和其他準備金變動部分抵銷。

In summary, we remain focused on disciplined execution. This is the third quarter of progress against the targets that we laid out in February, which we are either reiterating today or upgrading.

總而言之，我們仍然注重嚴格執行。這是我們在 2 月制定的目標上取得的第三個季度進展，我們今天重申或升級了這些目標。

Thank you for listening. Moving now to Q&A. (Event Instructions)

感謝您的聆聽。現在進入問答環節。 （活動須知）

(Operator Instructions) Jason Napier, UBS.

（操作員說明）Jason Napier，UBS。

Two questions on slide 16 please, which is the Barclays UK margin and NII walk. Just first, and I appreciate the reiteration of guidance around hedge tailwinds into next year, but I just noticed that the quarter-on-quarter tailwind there is down about a third and it looks to us like maturing swaps and incoming swaps should have been fairly stable down about 30 basis points each in the period. And so I just wonder how you think about the sort of quarter-to-quarter volatility around this component of NII, trying to avoid a situation where we worry unduly about near-return dynamics from that.

請在投影片 16 上提出兩個問題，即巴克萊英國保證金和 NII 遊走。首先，我很欣賞明年對沖順風的指引，但我剛剛注意到，季度環比順風下降了約三分之一，在我們看來，到期的掉期和即將到來的掉期應該相當合理。穩定下降約30個基點。因此，我只是想知道您如何看待 NII 這個組成部分的季度波動性，試圖避免我們過度擔心近回報動態的情況。

And then secondly, on that same chart, quite surprising to see the product margin as a net positive. Can I just confirm, please, that that includes what are the leads and lags on depository pricing? There are. There's some feedback in the investment community that perhaps Barclays haven't been able to cut deposit rates as others have done, as rate cuts began. I just wonder whether you could talk about what you're seeing on deposit pass-throughs as rates start to decline and just confirm that I'm looking at the right block when I look to track that going forward. Thank you.

其次，在同一張圖表上，令人驚訝的是產品​​利潤率為淨正值。我可以確認一下，這包括存款定價的領先和滯後嗎？有。投資界有一些反饋稱，巴克萊銀行在降息開始後可能無法像其他銀行一樣降低存款利率。我只是想知道您是否可以談論隨著利率開始下降，您在存款傳遞方面所看到的情況，並確認當我希望跟踪未來的情況時，我正在尋找正確的區塊。謝謝。

Thanks Jason. Good morning. Thanks for the questions. I'll take both of those. So just looking at slide 16, I can see why you're asking the question. The structural hedge impact is lower than the previous quarter. Last quarter, the product dynamic was negative. Now it's positive. So I'll pick those up in turn.

謝謝傑森。早安.感謝您的提問。我會接受這兩個。只要看一下投影片 16，我就能明白你為什麼要問這個問題。結構性對沖影響低於上一季。上季度，產品動態為負。現在是積極的。所以我會依序挑選這些。

Last quarter we did have a slightly higher swap rate, as you point out, but we also topped up the hedge a little bit, particularly around business banking. That's now obviously in the run rate, so it's no longer causing that sort of quarter-on-quarter impact.

正如您所指出的，上個季度我們的掉期利率確實略高，但我們也稍微增加了對沖，特別是在商業銀行業務方面。現在顯然已經在運行率中了，所以它不再造成那種季度環比的影響。

Going forward from here, we're going to continue to see momentum from the structural hedge, you can see that from the other disclosures that we've given you, for example, on page 10. So I still expect it to be a net tailwind overall to this business and really supporting the NII growth that we're seeing. So nothing more really than that.

從現在開始，我們將繼續看到結構性對沖的勢頭，您可以從我們向您提供的其他披露中看到這一點，例如第 10 頁。業務的順風車並真正支持了我們所看到的NII 成長。所以沒有什麼比這更真實的了。

On the product margin, you're right, that does include all product margins, so it's including assets and liabilities. I think it's important to point out that some of the drags that we've seen historically are no longer there, so you're no longer seeing that really significant deposit drag from migration coming through. Actually, our mortgage position is broadly neutral from a churn perspective now, so you're no longer seeing that.

在產品利潤方面，你是對的，它確實包括所有產品利潤，因此它包括資產和負債。我認為重要的是要指出，我們歷史上看到的一些阻力已經不復存在，因此你不會再看到移民帶來的真正重大的存款阻力。事實上，從客戶流失的角度來看，我們的抵押貸款狀況現在大致是中性的，所以你不再看到這一點。

What you are seeing is some positive momentum from both mortgage and card margins, which is a little bit offset by deposit pricing, as you point out. But actually, I'd expect, given the kind of regulatory lag that we have in deposit pricing, for that to be more meaningful, that lag impact to be more meaningful in the fourth quarter. So, bit of a [law] of small numbers here, because it is only a quarter-on-quarter movement, and it is only six, but that's the things that I would call out.

正如您所指出的，您看到的是抵押貸款和信用卡利潤率的一些積極勢頭，這被存款定價所抵消。但實際上，我預計，考慮到我們在存款定價方面存在的監管滯後，為了更有意義，這種滯後影響在第四季度會更有意義。所以，這裡有點小數字的[法則]，因為這只是季度環比的變動，而且只有六個，但這就是我要指出的事情。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Okay, perhaps we could go to the next question, please.

好的，也許我們可以討論下一個問題。

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

班傑明·湯姆斯，加拿大皇家銀行。

The first one is thank you for the new disclosure around the structural hedge income, around how that should be allocated to the group. Someone like me, that's a bit like Christmas come early. One of your peers this week implied they expect the structural hedge notion to be flattish from here. Based on your guidance in February and movements in the notional since the end, I think you're actually expecting a 13% reduction in the notional from here. Do you really expect to see such a big reduction going forward, given you mentioned just previously the stabilization in deposits? Or can we assume that that assumption is now somewhat stale?

第一個是感謝您對結構性對沖收入以及如何將其分配給集團的新披露。像我這樣的人，這有點像聖誕節來得早。您的一位同行本週暗示，他們預計結構性對沖概念從現在開始將持平。根據您 2 月的指導以及自年底以來名目利率的變動，我認為您實際上預計名目利率將下降 13%。鑑於您之前提到了存款的穩定，您真的預期未來會出現如此大幅度的減少嗎？或者我們可以假設這個假設現在有些陳舊了嗎？

And then secondly, just to chance my luck on 2025, one of your peers guided to a gradual increase in NIM in 2025 in the UK. Should we expect a similar trend at Barclays? Thank you.

其次，為了碰運氣，2025 年，你的一位同儕指導英國 2025 年的淨利差逐漸增加。我們是否應該預期巴克萊銀行也會出現類似的趨勢？謝謝。

Okay, good morning, Ben. Thank you. I'll take both of those. So yes, please put that disclosure in on page 38 if you haven't seen it. I mean we often talk about the structural hedge and the support that it gives to the UK, I guess, in absolute and percentage terms, that's where it is most meaningful. But it does provide support elsewhere in the group, particularly through the equity structural hedge. So you'll see there, perhaps surprising to many, that it's providing some support into the IB and because we allocate that equity portion by RWAs, so hopefully that's helpful.

好的，早安，本。謝謝。我會接受這兩個。所以，是的，如果您還沒有看到該披露，請將其放在第 38 頁上。我的意思是，我們經常談論結構性對沖及其為英國提供的支持，我想，從絕對值和百分比來看，這就是它最有意義的地方。但它確實為集團其他部門提供了支持，特別是透過股權結構性來對沖。因此，您會看到，這可能會讓許多人感到驚訝，它正在為 IB 提供一些支持，並且因為我們透過 RWA 分配該股權部分，所以希望這會有所幫助。

For the structural hedge notional, I'm not going to give you specific guidance then, but what I would say is we'd expect it to sort of trend broadly in line with where the deposits are going. When we spoke in February, that was less guidance, more sort of a framework to help you model it as time goes on. So we talked about GBP170 billion of maturing and rolling about three quarters of that, but that was designed really to give you the math that you could then update rather than a forecast itself. So clearly, as we look at the moment, there are some positives in there, but we will continue to update you as we go through, but I wouldn't call out anything more than we should expect it to move in line with deposits.

對於結構性對沖概念，我不會給你具體的指導，但我想說的是，我們預期它的趨勢與存款的去向大致一致。當我們在二月份談論時，這不再是指導，而是一個框架，可以幫助您隨著時間的推移對其進行建模。因此，我們討論了 1700 億英鎊的到期和滾動，其中約四分之三，但這實際上是為了給你提供可以更新的數學數據，而不是預測本身。很明顯，正如我們目前所看到的，其中存在一些積極因素，但我們將繼續向您通報最新情況，但我不會指出任何超出我們預期的與存款一致的內容。

On your second question, I'm not going to talk about NIM. NIM is going to move around quite a lot over the next few quarters. As you can imagine, we're about to onboard GBP8 billion worth of unsecured lending. That's going to move the NIM materially.

關於第二個問題，我並不打算談NIM。 NIM 在接下來的幾個季度中將會發生很大的變化。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們即將推出價值 80 億英鎊的無擔保貸款。這將為 NIM 帶來實質的推動。

What I would really focus you on is actually the net interest income. So we've upgraded our net interest income for the group and for BUK in the current year. So now we're expecting circa GBP6.5 billion for BUK.

我真正讓你專注的是淨利息收入。因此，我們上調了集團和 BUK 本年度的淨利息收入。因此，現在我們預計 BUK 的收入約為 65 億英鎊。

And if I take you back to what we said in February, we said we expected mid-single-digit growth in NII in the UK. We still expect that. And what's driving that? Well, clearly, we've got asset growth coming through. What was a drag coming from deposits, we now see a stabilization, and hopefully, as deposits start to grow across the market, we would see the same.

如果我帶你回到我們 2 月所說的，我們說過我們預計英國的 NII 會出現中等個位數的成長。我們仍然期待這一點。是什麼推動了這一點？嗯，很明顯，我們已經實現了資產成長。存款帶來的拖累現在我們看到了穩定，希望隨著整個市場的存款開始成長，我們也會看到同樣的情況。

And whilst we've got some uncertainty coming through from rate changes, I would offset that with the kind of momentum that we've got from the structural hedge. So we're expecting NII to be higher in '25 and in '26 than it has been in 2024 and that's obviously we would be putting Tesco on top of that.

雖然利率變動帶來了一些不確定性，但我會用結構性避險帶來的動力來抵銷這種不確定性。因此，我們預計 25 年和 26 年的 NII 將高於 2024 年，顯然我們將 Tesco 放在首位。

Okay, thanks Ben. Next question please.

好的，謝謝本。請下一個問題。

[Chris Camp, Autonomous].

[克里斯·坎普，自治]。

Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about head office, please.

感謝您回答我的問題。我想問一下總部的狀況。

Gosh, Chris, we can't hear you. Sorry. Could you start again, please? We picked up head office, but perhaps you could start your question again?

天哪，克里斯，我們聽不到你的聲音。對不起。請你重新開始好嗎？我們接聽了總部的電話，但也許你可以再開始你的問題？

Yeah. Can you hear me now?

是的。現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can, loud and clear. Thank you.

是的，我們可以，大聲而清晰。謝謝。

Hello. Okay.

你好。好的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, great. Yes, so head office, I wanted to ask about looking into '25, '26, could you give us some color on what the sort of underlying group center numbers look like after the various mortgage books have gone and the German card books have gone? I think this is a sort of significant dispersion within consensus how people are thinking about sort of the underlying head office. It has been an area where historically, consensus has got a little bit out of [kilter] with your own expectations. So any color on once the transactions you've currently got in the pipeline are done, what does that group center income cost run rate look like? And I appreciate that there's still the payments business in there, which may or may not go at some point, but what's the go-to run rate as things stand for the transactions once the transactions you've got in train are done?

好的，太好了。是的，所以總部，我想詢問有關調查「25」、「26」的情況，您能給我們一些關於在各種抵押貸款簿和德國卡片簿消失後底層集團中心數字是什麼樣子的信息嗎？ ？我認為這是人們對基本總部的看法存在共識的一種顯著分散。從歷史上看，在這個領域，共識與你自己的期望有點不符。因此，一旦您目前正在進行的交易完成，集團中心的收入成本運作率會是什麼樣子？我很欣賞那裡仍然有支付業務，它可能會也可能不會在某個時候進行，但一旦你的交易完成，交易的運行率是多少？

And then on BUK and I -- just a point of clarification, so it's mid-single-digit growth on the 2024 number, excluding Tesco, and then we put Tesco on top, so take essentially the GBP6.5 billion that you're now guiding, mid-single-digit growth on that, and then GBP400 million on top is what you're saying for 2025. Thank you.

然後關於 BUK 和我——只是需要澄清一點，所以 2024 年的數字是中等個位數增長，不包括特易購，然後我們把特易購放在首位，所以基本上以 65 億英鎊為例現在指導的是，中個位數增長，然後是您所說的2025 年4 億英鎊。

Okay, thanks, Chris. Let me pick up both of those. The first one, look, I appreciate head office has been a bit volatile in the current year, both because it's housing our inorganic activity and those businesses before they actually flow out. Just to remind you, there's no inorganic activity in the current quarter. You can also get some volatility in there from hedging. We're seeing a bit of that in the quarter, but year-to-date, that is a zero number, and we expect it to be timing only.

好的，謝謝，克里斯。讓我把這兩個都撿起來。第一個，看，我很欣賞總部今年有點波動，因為它在我們的無機活動和這些業務實際流出之前容納了它們。只是提醒您，本季沒有無機活動。您還可以透過對沖來獲得一些波動性。我們在本季度看到了一些這樣的情況，但今年迄今為止，這個數字為零，我們預計這只是時間問題。

It's a bit early to guide you to what that run rate is, Chris, but we will do that in time. But just to remind you, nothing in the current quarter, and just appreciate it's very difficult to model at the moment. But once we get beyond that, we'll give you more guidance.

克里斯，現在指導您了解運行率還為時過早，但我們會及時做到這一點。但只是提醒您，當前季度沒有任何變化，並且要意識到目前建模非常困難。但一旦我們超越這個範圍，我們將為您提供更多指導。

On the BUK NII, let me just clarify for you. So, ex-TESCO, I expect some increase. Mid-single-digit guidance that we gave you for BUK did include Tesco because that was from '23 to '26. So we included Tesco obviously in our RWA bridge to GBP30 billion and it's included in the mid-single. So I would say overall we're expecting some organic, add Tesco on top to that. Is that clearer?

關於 BUK NII，讓我為您澄清一下。所以，對於前樂購來說，我預計會有一些成長。我們為 BUK 提供的中位數指引確實包括 Tesco，因為那是從 23 年到 26 年。因此，我們顯然將樂購納入了我們通往 300 億英鎊的 RWA 橋樑，並且它也包含在中路中。所以我想說，總的來說，我們期待一些有機產品，再加上特易購。是不是更清楚了？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Edward Firth, KBW.

愛德華·弗斯，KBW。

I had two questions. One was just on the BUK interest rate sensitivity. It's quite striking that you're not highlighting it at all as an impact this quarter. I think you said it was minimal or marginal. I can't remember your exact words. in terms of your sensitivity rates falling going forward. And I'm just trying to understand, any sort of commentary you could give to help us understand why that is. Is that just like a temporary thing? And as the hedge rolls off, then you would expect some more sensitivity? Or is it something that you sort of structurally changed? Because obviously on the way up, we saw NII grow very strongly on the back of higher rates. So that's one question.

我有兩個問題。其中之一就是 BUK 利率敏感度。令人驚訝的是，您在本季根本沒有強調它的影響。我想你說的是最小的或邊緣的。我記不清你的原話了。就您的敏感度而言，未來將會下降。我只是想了解您可以提供的任何評論來幫助我們理解其中的原因。這只是暫時的事情嗎？隨著對沖的結束，你會期望更多的敏感度嗎？還是你在結構上改變了一些東西？因為顯然在上漲過程中，我們看到NII在利率上升的背景下成長非常強勁。這是一個問題。

And then the other question was on the US. The margin there. I get your comments about you're still targeting greater than 12%. I think you said there was a lot of incentive programs or loyalty programs that you were running at the moment. And just, again, any help you can give us to understand from a business perspective how that works because, as you know, obviously in the US, loyalty programs are a huge part of the business. It's a huge part of attracting volumes and customers, et cetera. And I'm just trying to think what is it you're expecting to change in the market more broadly or how is your offering going to change that's going to allow you to reduce those loyalty offerings but still maintain momentum in the business? Thanks very much.

然後另一個問題是關於美國的。那裡的邊距。我收到您關於您的目標仍高於 12% 的評論。我想你說過你目前正在運行很多激勵計劃或忠誠度計劃。再次強調，您可以為我們提供任何幫助，讓我們從業務角度理解其運作方式，因為如您所知，顯然在美國，忠誠度計劃是業務的重要組成部分。這是吸引數量和客戶等的重要組成部分。我只是想思考一下，您期望更廣泛的市場發生什麼變化，或者您的產品將如何改變，從而使您能夠減少忠誠度產品，但仍保持業務勢頭？非常感謝。

Okay. Thanks, Ed. I will take both of those. On this first one, we gave you some guidance on the interest rate sensitivity in the previous quarter and that really showed for a 25-basis point parallel shift it was GBP50 million in the first year. And then what you saw was that build over time and that build over time, the way I think about it, Ed, is in the first year it's dominated by the lag effect So this sort of 60-day regulatory lag that we have particularly in the UK and then in the outer years you see the impact of the hedge grinding lower in response to that parallel movement. So that's really what's going on there.

好的。謝謝，艾德。我會接受這兩個。在第一個方面，我們為您提供了有關上一季利率敏感性的一些指導，這確實表明，如果平行移動 25 個基點，第一年的利率為 5000 萬英鎊。然後你看到的是，隨著時間的推移，隨著時間的推移，我的想法是，Ed，在第一年，它是由滯後效應主導的，所以我們特別有這種 60 天的監管滯後在英國，然後在外部年份，您會看到對沖的影響因平行運動而下降。這就是那裡發生的事情。

If I go back to what I said in product, for that product margin on page 16, just to clarify, we've got two offsetting impacts in there. There is a negative movement from the delay in pricing or repricing the liabilities. But there is an offset which is coming through from our asset margins which are expanding.

如果我回到我在產品中所說的內容，對於第 16 頁的產品利潤，只是為了澄清，我們在那裡有兩個抵消影響。負債定價或重新定價的延遲會產生負面影響。但我們不斷擴大的資產利潤正在抵銷這一影響。

Now, you might expect that in a downward movement. Sort of overall, we would expect that as the liability margins start to compress, you see asset margins widening out and of course we've got specific actions around things like high loan to value mortgages that are perhaps driving that a little bit faster. So it's not that it's not there, it's just that there are some offsets and actually I would expect a bit more of that lag just because of the way the months sort of pan out in Q4.

現在，您可能會預期會出現下行走勢。總體而言，我們預計，隨著負債利潤率開始壓縮，資產利潤率會擴大，當然，我們已經針對高貸款價值抵押貸款等問題採取了具體行動，這可能會加快這一速度。所以並不是說它不存在，只是存在一些抵消，實際上我預計會有更多的滯後，只是因為第四季度幾個月的情況。

On your second question on US margin, yes, the NIM is clearly lower than it was at the beginning of the year and indeed last year, but our expectation is that this is still a greater than 12% NIM business and all of the actions that we are taking to underpin that are taking place. So in the current quarter, and if you look sort of sequentially across the last few quarters, there's a few things going on. There's natural seasonality in this business, so you see more purchase activity, more borrowing activity as you go into the holiday season, which is much more seasonal in the US than it is in the UK. So you'll see that natural shape.

關於你關於美國利潤率的第二個問題，是的，NIM 明顯低於年初甚至去年的水平，但我們的預期是，這仍然是一個高於 12% 的 NIM 業務，並且所有行動都我們正在努力支持正在發生的事情。因此，在當前季度，如果您按順序查看過去幾個季度，您會發現發生了一些事情。這項業務具有自然的季節性，因此當您進入假期時，您會看到更多的購買活動和借貸活動，而美國的季節性比英國大得多。所以你會看到自然的形狀。

The second thing is remember, we did that risk transfer in Q1. What that meant was we swapped out NII for fee income, but obviously it's RoTE-acquitted overall. So you see some movement in the geography of the P&L and the balance sheet.

第二件事是記住，我們在第一季就進行了風險轉移。這意味著我們用 NII 換取了費用收入，但顯然總體上 RoTE 是無罪的。所以你會看到損益表和資產負債表的佈局發生了一些變化。

And then thirdly, as we've called out, there are a couple of things that we're just observing as a customer matter. Actually, I don't think they're unhelpful, but there are two. The first is that customers are managing their balance as well. They're repaying, perhaps a little bit faster than we expected. In the context of the broader discussions about the US economy, I don't think that's unhelpful, and we see the other side of it in positive internments. So we're not uncomfortable with that.

第三，正如我們所說，有一些事情我們只是作為客戶問題來觀察。事實上，我不認為它們沒有幫助，但有兩個。首先，客戶也在管理他們的餘額。他們正在償還，也許比我們預期的要快一點。在有關美國經濟的更廣泛討論的背景下，我認為這沒有什麼幫助，而且我們看到了積極的拘留的另一面。所以我們對此並不感到不舒服。

The second point is that customers are using their rewards not necessarily more, but faster than we would have previously expected. Again, long-term for the franchise, while that puts a bit of a headwind into near-term NIM, it means they're really engaged with the card, they're really engaged with the brand program, so it's good news. So that kind of explains Q3.

第二點是，客戶使用他們的獎勵不一定比我們之前預期的更多，但更快。再說一次，從長期來看，這對特許經營權來說，雖然這給近期的淨息差帶來了一些阻力，但這意味著他們真正參與了這張卡，他們真正參與了品牌計劃，所以這是個好消息。這就是第三個問題的解釋。

As I go beyond Q3 and think about that build to greater than 12%, The things that we talked about in February were, number one, repricing. That repricing action has actually taken place. It's complete. But what happens is customers have to actually purchase under the new terms and conditions. So it's going to drip through into NIM over time.

當我超越第三季並考慮到超過 12% 的成長時，我們在 2 月討論的第一件事是重新定價。這種重新定價行動實際上已經發生了。完成了。但實際情況是，客戶必須根據新的條款和條件進行實際購買。所以隨著時間的推移，它會滲透到 NIM 中。

The second action was really around the funding mix. So we are now around 67% of retail funding. We want to get that to around 75%. That's going to take a while for us to build but we've launched the tiered savings products that will underpin that and you'll see more on that in time. So those things are really important.

第二項行動其實是圍繞著資金組合。所以我們現在大約佔零售資金的 67%。我們希望達到 75% 左右。我們需要一段時間才能實現這一點，但我們已經推出了分層儲蓄產品來支撐這一點，您很快就會看到更多相關資訊。所以這些事情非常重要。

The last thing I would add is A key part of that move to 12% is how we start to morph this portfolio towards having a richer mix in retail. And you can see that we've announced our new partnership with GM. That again is another plank of this strategy. So we're not going to get to 12% or greater than 12% immediately. You're going to see it sort of emerge over the next few quarters. But greater than 12% is still our target and we feel like we're on track.

我要補充的最後一件事是，轉向 12% 的關鍵部分是我們如何開始改變這個投資組合，以實現更豐富的零售組合。您可以看到我們已經宣布與通用汽車建立新的合作關係。這又是該戰略的另一個要點。所以我們不會立即達到 12% 或超過 12%。你會在接下來的幾個季度看到它的出現。但超過 12% 仍然是我們的目標，我們感覺我們正在步入正軌。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Okay. Thanks, Ed. Next question, please.

好的。謝謝，艾德。請下一個問題。

Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas.

蓋伊·斯特賓斯，法國巴黎銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I had one on capital and then one back to product margins and BUK. On capital and slide 30, thanks a lot for clarifying the various timings, including some of them that has been pushed out in the US for consumer business. I'm just wondering if that changes how you'll manage capital. So in theory, it sort of frees up some capital in the next 12 months to perhaps distribute a little bit more early in the plan, or should we think that you're more likely to run at the very top end of the 13% to 14% range, maybe even above it, especially if there's a Pillar 2A temporary uptick. Just thinking about how you think about that caps ratio during 2025 now has been -- we have to wait for 2026 for some of those to come through.

嗨，早安。感謝您提出問題。我有一個關於資本的問題，然後又一個關於產品利潤和 BUK 的問題。關於資本和投影片 30，非常感謝您澄清各種時間安排，包括其中一些已在美國針對消費者業務推出的時間表。我只是想知道這是否會改變您管理資本的方式。因此，從理論上講，它在未來 12 個月內釋放了一些資本，也許可以在計劃的早期分配更多一點，或者我們是否應該認為您更有可能在 13% 的最高端運行14％的範圍，甚至可能高於它，特別是如果支柱2A 暫時上漲的話。想想你現在如何看待 2025 年的上限比率——我們必須等到 2026 年才能實現其中一些上限。

And then on the product margins, I've come back to that point in terms of the lag effect and saying it might be more meaningful in Q4 on deposits. I would have thought there would be some sort of catch-up from the August rate cut, if you like, and you take the day one hit on the unhinged deposits and you have to wait to pass some of it back on the rate cut. So I just check that sort of thinking is correct and your comment around the lag effect being greater in Q4 is maybe a reflection of an assumption of two rate cuts and maybe if it was just one rate cut it wouldn't be as more powerful versus what you saw in Q3. Thanks.

然後在產品利潤方面，我回到了滯後效應的觀點，並表示這在第四季度對存款來說可能更有意義。如果你願意的話，我以為八月份的降息會帶來某種追趕，而你在第一天就受到了精神錯亂的存款的打擊，你必須等待將其中的一部分轉嫁給降息。因此，我只是檢查這種想法是否正確，您對第四季度滯後效應更大的評論可能反映了兩次降息的假設，也許如果只是一次降息，那麼效果不會那麼強大。到了什麼。謝謝。

Okay, thanks, Guy. I'll take both of those. I'm hoping Venka's going to get a question at some point. But just on the first one around capital, look, these regulatory movements that we set out for you on page 30 are timing and timing only. And we'd reiterate today our expectation about distributions here, so greater than GBP10 billion for the three years of the plan.

好的，謝謝，蓋伊。我會接受這兩個。我希望文卡能在某個時候收到一個問題。但就第一個圍繞資本的問題而言，我們在第 30 頁為您列出的這些監管舉措只是時機而已。今天我們要重申我們對這裡分配的預期，即該計劃三年內分配額將超過 100 億英鎊。

And for the current year, we'd expect it to be broadly similar to last year, so around GBP3 billion. And we said in February that we would expect it to be progressive thereafter. And I just say exactly the same today. Q4 is normally when we talk about distributions, and we'll do so then. But we see this really around timing and you would expect us to build capital as we head towards both Basel and the IRB implementation.

今年，我們預計與去年大致相似，約 30 億英鎊。我們在二月表示，我們預計此後會取得進步。我今天也說了同樣的話。 Q4 通常是我們討論發行版的時候，我們會在那時討論。但我們認為這實際上是圍繞時間安排的，您會期望我們在巴塞爾協議和 IRB 實施過程中累積資本。

Just on product margins, really what I was referring to is you've got sort of about a month's worth of that lag in Q3. You're going to see the remainder of it in Q4. And we are expecting, because we use consensus, so consensus has got three rate cuts in the current year, we're expecting a couple of rate cuts in Q4. So you're going to see impacts in Q4 and actually into Q1 of next year.

就產品利潤而言，我真正指的是第三季有大約一個月的延遲。您將在第四季度看到其餘部分。我們預計，因為我們使用共識，所以共識今年已經三次降息，我們預計第四季會有幾次降息。因此，您將在第四季度看到影響，實際上到明年第一季。

Yes, that's good. Thank you.

是的，那很好。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you, Guy. Next question, please.

好的。謝謝你，蓋伊。請下一個問題。

[Amit Gol, Mediabanker].

[阿米特·戈爾，媒體銀行家]。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. So, two questions from me. So, one just related to that product margin. But essentially, just on the BUK business, I kind of see the balance sheet still contracting a little bit in terms of total loan balances and deposit balances versus, I guess, some of your peers showing a little bit of growth now. So just kind of curious the interplay between the pricing which goes into that product margin versus balance sheet growth and when can we start to see a bit more organic growth and capital redeployment into the BUK business.

你好。早安.謝謝。那麼，我有兩個問題。因此，其中一個與產品利潤有關。但本質上，就 BUK 業務而言，我認為資產負債表在總貸款餘額和存款餘額方面仍然略有收縮，而我猜，你們的一些同行現在表現出了一點增長。因此，我有點好奇產品利潤率與資產負債表成長之間的相互作用，以及我們什麼時候可以開始看到更多的自然成長和資本重新部署到 BUK 業務中。

And the second question, just relating to the US consumer business, I'm just curious how significant or not is the American Airlines partnership, if there's any color you can give there in terms of the contribution of that piece to the broader business. Thank you.

第二個問題與美國消費者業務有關，我只是好奇美國航空的合作夥伴關係有多重要，您是否可以就該部分對更廣泛業務的貢獻給出任何顏色。謝謝。

Okay, thanks. I'll take the first of those and then I'll hand to Venkat.

好的，謝謝。我會拿第一個，然後交給 Venkat。

So it's probably helpful if we start on the sort of leading indicators page that we've included this time. It's on page 14.

因此，如果我們從這次包含的領先指標頁面開始，可能會有所幫助。是在第 14 頁。

And if I take you back to February, what we said in February was we didn't expect a significant change in the net balance sheet, particularly in the UK in the current year. And that was because of our expectation and the known maturities that we have, not just in mortgages but, for example, in business banking. What we did expect There's a change in the gross production.

如果我帶你回到二月份，我們在二月所說的是，我們預計淨資產負債表不會有重大變化，特別是在今年的英國。這是因為我們的期望和已知的到期日，不僅是抵押貸款，而且是商業銀行業務。我們的預期 總產量發生了變化。

And what we've shown you on page 14 is what I look at, what we look at, week in, week out, to give ourselves comfort that we are driving that gross production. So in mortgages, it's relatively straightforward. It's actually our gross lending. You can see that stepping forward quarter on quarter. It's obviously helped by the fact that the mortgage market itself is strong and robust, but also the fact that we are broadening out our range within that market and we're really putting Kensington to work now which we've been unable to do over the last few years.

我們在第 14 頁向您展示的內容是我所關注的內容，我們每週都會關注的內容，以便讓自己感到安慰，因為我們正在推動總產量。因此，在抵押貸款方面，情況相對簡單。這實際上是我們的貸款總額。你可以看到這一情況逐季向前推進。顯然，抵押貸款市場本身的強勁和穩健，以及我們正在擴大我們在該市場的範圍的事實，以及我們現在真正讓 Kensington 發揮作用的事實，這是我們過去一直無法做到的。

The second point is on card acquisitions and you can see that meaningful step up in '24, but we've already started that journey in 2023. And actually, what you see over time is that those cards volumes will start to feed into interest earning lending.

第二點是關於信用卡收購，你可以在24 年看到這一有意義的進步，但我們已經在2023 年開始了這一旅程。將開始轉化為利息收入借貸。

And then finally on UKCB, I know you're not asking about corporate here, but it's a bit more difficult there because clearly what you do is you put out lines to clients which is shown here in terms of RWAs and then those clients in time will draw down on them. So in terms of what's happening in terms of lead indicators in the balance sheet, I'm happy we're going in the right direction.

最後在 UKCB 上，我知道您在這裡問的不是公司問題，但那裡有點困難，因為顯然您要做的就是向客戶提供線路，這些線路以 RWA 形式顯示，然後及時顯示這些客戶會拖累他們。因此，就資產負債表中領先指標的變化而言，我很高興我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

In BUK specifically, we saw positive net lending in the businesses that we've got in focus. So we saw positive net lending in mortgages, we're seeing it in cards. What we've got offsetting that is some run-offs in portfolios which are obviously no longer -- core is not the right word, but if I use the example of government lending within business banking, I don't think that's different either in percentage terms or sort of in directional terms from our peers. You're hearing similar things there. So I think we're happy overall.

特別是在 BUK，我們看到我們重點關注的業務出現了積極的淨貸款。因此，我們在抵押貸款中看到了積極的淨貸款，我們在卡片上看到了這一點。我們所抵銷的是投資組合中的一些流失，這些顯然不再是核心這個詞，但如果我使用商業銀行領域的政府貸款的例子，我認為這也沒有什麼不同。種方向性術語。你在那裡聽到類似的事情。所以我認為我們總體上很高興。

And obviously, as we increase our cards lending, you get a mixed impact. As we've increased the proportion of lending at higher loan-to-values, you get a mixed impact and that's really what's flowing into the product margin and giving that positive.

顯然，隨著我們增加信用卡貸款，您會受到不同的影響。隨著我們以更高的貸款價值增加貸款比例，您會得到混合的影響，而這實際上是流入產品利潤並帶來積極影響的。

So let me hand to Venkat on the second part.

接下來讓我向 Venkat 介紹第二部分。

Yeah, look. On cards, obviously, we will not talk about any specific account until there is time to talk about, you know, the right time to talk about an account or we have something to say. We also do not talk about individual client profitability or financials. We announced GM a couple of days ago and so we are speaking about that and if there is news on any other client, we will tell you at the right time.

是的，看。在卡片上，顯然，我們不會談論任何特定的帳戶，直到有時間談論，你知道，談論帳戶的正確時間或我們有話要說。我們也不談論個人客戶的獲利能力或財務狀況。幾天前我們宣布了通用汽車，所以我們正在談論這一點，如果有任何其他客戶的消息，我們會在適當的時間告訴你。

Okay, thanks Amit. Perhaps we can go to the next question.

好的，謝謝阿米特。也許我們可以討論下一個問題。

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

克里斯·哈勒姆，高盛。

So, two from me as well. First, in the IB, if we think about the gradual rebalancing of that business, clearly dynamics in the quarter for DCM were very strong, both for you and across the street. But given the organic reduction in RWAs you saw in the quarter in the IB and the improvement in asset productivity year over year, are you starting to make those selective decisions to de-emphasize DCM and where are you comfortable doing less, I guess? And when we think about reallocating those RWAs into the financing businesses, should we sort of assume GBP750 million as a floor for markets financing revenues, assuming supported markets? That's the first topic.

所以，我也有兩個。首先，在 IB 領域，如果我們考慮到該業務的逐步再平衡，那麼本季 DCM 的動態顯然非常強勁，無論是對您還是對街對面來說都是如此。但考慮到本季 IB 中 RWA 的有機減少以及資產生產力逐年提高，您是否開始做出選擇性決定來不再強調 DCM？當我們考慮將這些 RWA 重新分配到融資業務時，我們是否應該假設 7.5 億英鎊作為市場融資收入的下限，假設市場受到支持？這是第一個主題。

And then second on Tesco, so thank you for the additional disclosure in the update today. So what steps are you planning to take over the next 12 to 24 months to improve the product margins in Tesco Bank? If I look at asset productivity or NII versus RWAs, it's quite a bit lower in Tesco Bank than the rest of the BUK business, looking at the GBP400 million and the GBP7 billion of RWAs. So how are you planning to scale NII faster than RWAs to optimize that capital resource in question?

其次是特易購，感謝您在今天的更新中提供的額外披露。那麼，您計劃在未來 12 到 24 個月內採取哪些措施來提高 Tesco Bank 的產品利潤率？如果我將資產生產力或 NII 與 RWA 進行對比，就會發現 Tesco 銀行的資產生產力比 BUK 的其他業務要低得多，例如 4 億英鎊和 70 億英鎊的 RWA。那麼，您計劃如何以比 RWA 更快的速度擴展 NII 來優化相關資本資源？

Right, so Chris, let me take the IB and then Anna will talk about Tesco.

好的，克里斯，讓我參加 IB，然後安娜會談論特易購。

On the IB, first of all, big picture, we're looking to keep RWAs in absolute terms relatively flat to their current number of around GBP200 billion. The relative reduction in RWAs as a percentage of the group happens because the rest of the group grows. Second, in the investment bank, RWAs came down by about GBP9 billion this quarter. compared to the previous one, but about GBP6 billion of that was due to FX, and GBP3 billion was actual action, and you know, 1% up and down, or 1.5% up and down in a quarter is normal business mix.

首先，在 IB 方面，我們希望將 RWA 的絕對值保持在目前約 2000 億英鎊的水平上相對持平。 RWA 在群體中所佔百分比相對減少是因為群體中其他群體的成長。其次，在投資銀行領域，本季風險加權資產減少了約 90 億英鎊。與之前相比，但其中大約60億英鎊是外匯帶來的，30億英鎊是實際行動，你知道，一個季度1%的上下，或者1.5%的上下是正常的業務組合。

Third, we are not looking to de-emphasize CCM. What we are looking to do is, within the investment bank, be prudent in assigning capital to clients, looking at the totality of their relationship. And that relationship is not just CCM, but it includes M&A and equities, and what corporate banking we do with them. And that's the way to think about it. And lending is a part of it. Lending is not the only part of it. We don't want lending to be the main part of it.

第三，我們並不打算弱化 CCM。我們希望在投資銀行內部謹慎地向客戶分配資金，並考慮他們的整體關係。這種關係不僅涉及 CCM，還包括併購和股票，以及我們用它們開展的企業銀行業務。這就是思考這個問題的方式。貸款是其中的一部分。貸款並不是其中的唯一部分。我們不希望貸款成為其中的主要部分。

And as far as revenue of GBP750 million from financing, look, we've been stable at that number. What I would say is while we have been gaining clients and gaining market share in that business, the actual revenue is a function of two things. It's a function of what happens in the composition of balances, fixed income and equities, and so what the markets do, as well as spreads within that. So I can't tell you that it's going to stay at this level or not go up or down. It depends on that mix.

就融資收入 7.5 億英鎊而言，我們一直穩定在這個數字上。我想說的是，雖然我們在該業務中贏得了客戶並獲得了市場份額，但實際收入取決於兩件事。它取決於餘額、固定收益和股票的組成，以及市場的走勢，以及其中的利差。所以我不能告訴你它會保持在這個水平，或者不會上漲或下跌。這取決於這種組合。

What we do think we have is a diversified business between fixed income and equities, a competitive business in both, but a particularly strong fixed income business, and a diversified business among the types of clients who use it regionally, product-wise and within fixed income, asset class-wise, meaning spread versus common bonds. So that's what we think contributes to a good and stable mix, but I'm reluctant to put sort of floors and ceilings on numbers.

我們確實認為我們擁有的是固定收益和股票之間的多元化業務，兩者都有競爭力的業務，但固定收益業務特別強大，以及在區域、產品方面和固定收益領域使用它的客戶類型的多元化業務。因此，我們認為這有助於形成良好且穩定的組合，但我不願意對數字設定下限和上限。

Thanks, Chris. The only thing I'd add to that is if I take that GBP9 billion reduction, GBP6 billion was FX, as Venkat said. The other GBP3 billion was just the reversal of the client positioning that we saw over Q2 that we said was temporary. So it just kind of brings us back to where we started at the beginning of the year.

謝謝，克里斯。我唯一要補充的是，如果我考慮減少 90 億英鎊，那麼 60 億英鎊是外匯，正如 Venkat 所說。另外 30 億英鎊只是我們在第二季度看到的客戶定位的逆轉，我們認為這是暫時的。所以這讓我們回到了年初的起點。

On Tesco, for the next year or so, for the next sort of 12 to 18 months, our focus is really on integration and our focus will be on customer service. So that is our primary focus as it would be in any partnership as it was in GAAP in the US. So this is just a replication of what we would do with any other partner across the firm.

在 Tesco 上，在接下來的一年左右，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡，我們的重點實際上是整合，我們的重點將是客戶服務。因此，這是我們的首要關注點，就像在美國公認會計原則中那樣，在任何合作夥伴關係中都是如此。因此，這只是我們與公司其他合作夥伴所做的事情的複製。

Over time, we would expect this to be RoTE accretive for a number of reasons, whether that be efficiency, whether that be funding benefits that you might expect to accrue, and obviously we'll update you on that in the course of time, but really our objective over the short term is going to be to integrate it well and really ensure that that customer experience is foremost.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計這會因多種原因而增加 RoTE，無論是效率，還是您可能期望獲得的資金收益，顯然我們會隨著時間的推移向您通報最新情況，但是事實上，我們短期內的目標是好好整合它，並真正確保客戶體驗是最重要的。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Thanks, Chris. Perhaps we could go to the next question please.

謝謝，克里斯。也許我們可以討論下一個問題。

The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。請繼續。

A couple of questions on the investment bank for me please. First of all, on the fee performance, obviously very strong in the quarter, but similar to Q2 where you called out a large deal there, is there any lumpy deals that we should bear in mind? Is the performance sustainable? I'm guessing ultimately, I'm asking about the pipeline from here given the strong performance.

請教我幾個關於投資銀行的問題。首先，關於費用表現，本季度顯然非常強勁，但與第二季度您在那裡呼籲進行大額交易類似，是否有任何我們應該牢記的波動性交易？業績是否可持續？我猜最終，考慮到強勁的性能，我會詢問這裡的管道。

And second is on the leverage finance marks. It feels like it's a bit of an odd quarter to take those marks and with credit spreads actually very tight. Maybe could you give us a bit of color on what's driving that? Is it a portfolio? Is it a single sort of ticket or are you looking to sell something in the March or should we expect more of this in the coming quarters? Just a bit of color on this.

其次是槓桿融資標記。感覺這個季度採取這些標記有點奇怪，而且信用利差實際上非常緊。也許您能為我們介紹一下是什麼推動了這個趨勢？它是投資組合嗎？這是單一類型的門票，還是您打算在三月出售一些東西，或者我們應該在未來幾季期待更多這樣的東西？只是在這上面加了一點顏色。

Thank you. I'll take the first question and then Anna will take the next question.

謝謝。我將回答第一個問題，然後安娜將回答下一個問題。

So on fee performance, in Q3, nothing special to call out. Look, we are part of certain larger deals, but I wouldn't say that unduly that there is anything I would call out. And as I've said elsewhere, we've obviously seen activity pick up over this year compared to the previous year. We expect it to continue to be relatively firm. Obviously, there are a couple of wild cards out there in terms of what happens with the US elections and economic policy, rate policy in the US on M&A activity after that. But assuming no major surprises or changes, we expect to continue to see it to be firm. Anna?

因此，就第三季的費用表現而言，沒有什麼特別值得指出的。聽著，我們是某些較大交易的一部分，但我不會過分地說我要指出的任何事情。正如我在其他地方所說，與去年相比，我們明顯看到今年的活動增加。我們預計其將繼續相對堅挺。顯然，就美國大選、經濟政策以及此後美國併購活動的利率政策而言，存在一些不確定因素。但假設沒有重大意外或變化，我們預期其將繼續保持堅挺。安娜？

Okay, thanks Venkat. So let me pick up that second one, Alvaro. I mean, let's say there's a really important part of our business, and you're right, in the current environment, what we see is that market overall performing really well. Deals are clearing quickly.

好的，謝謝文卡特。那麼讓我來接第二個，阿爾瓦羅。我的意思是，假設我們的業務有一個非常重要的部分，你是對的，在當前環境下，我們看到市場整體表現非常好。交易正在迅速清算。

Occasionally, we find that either some of those don't, that is episodic, it's a feature of our business, it's a feature of the market overall and not something that we would particularly call out, so it's normal.

有時候，我們發現其中一些沒有，這是偶發的，這是我們業務的一個特點，這是整個市場的一個特點，而不是我們特別強調的，所以這是正常的。

What we do at the end of every single quarter is we assess our balance sheet and we use a prevailing market information in order to assess the fair value of that balance sheet. And where we feel we need to take more than we do and that's what we've done in in the current quarter. So it's very much BAU, and as I say, it occasionally occurs, it's episodic.

我們在每季末所做的就是評估我們的資產負債表，並使用現行市場資訊來評估該資產負債表的公允價值。我們認為我們需要採取更多措施，而這就是我們在本季所做的事情。所以這在很大程度上是 BAU，正如我所說，它偶爾會發生，它是偶發的。

I wouldn't comment on clients as we would never do. I would just remind you also that this is a book which has some hedging set against it. The cost of that hedging also flows through corporate lending. So we protect ourselves in that way. And I would say overall, our exposures are probably, whilst they're higher than 23, they're lower than they have been historically. So it's a well-risk-managed book and really this is sort of the kind of thing we see normally but on an episodic basis.

我不會像我們永遠不會那樣對客戶發表評論。我還要提醒您，這本書有一些對沖措施。這種對沖成本也透過企業貸款流動。所以我們以這種方式保護自己。我想說的是，總體而言，我們的風險敞口可能高於 23，但低於歷史水準。所以這是一本風險管理良好的書，這實際上是我們通常看到的那種事情，但只是偶爾發生的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Alvaro. Perhaps we could go to the next question, please.

謝謝，阿爾瓦羅。也許我們可以討論下一個問題。

[Jonathan Pearce, Jefferies].

[喬納森·皮爾斯，杰弗里斯]。

Hello there. I've got two, please. The first is – I'm sorry, it's back on rate sensitivity. Thanks for the hedge allocation data again, by the way. It helps us to be a bit more precise in the tailwinds there in Barclays UK.

你好呀。我有兩個，拜託。第一個是——抱歉，又回到了利率敏感度。順便說一句，再次感謝您提供對沖分配數據。它幫助我們更準確地掌握巴克萊英國的順勢。

But the piece that I'm still struggling with a bit is the rate sensitivity. But the GBP50 million in year one, I hear what you're saying about a lot of that being relating to deposit bank, but if there's GBP40 billion of hedge maturities a year as per guidance, you'd have thought a 25-basis point shift in the curve would be knocking GBP50 million out of the hedge income in year one.

但我仍然有點困惑的是速率敏感度。但是第一年的 5000 萬英鎊，我聽到你所說的很多與存款銀行有關，但如果按照指導每年有 400 億英鎊的對沖到期日，你會考慮 25 個基點曲線的變化將使第一年的對沖收入減少5000 萬英鎊。

So I'm not quite sure what's going on here. Are you saying that there is no impact on what we might call managed margin? from a 25-basis point rate reduction at all, just simply because the structural hedge is now so large in the context of the deposit book. So it would be helpful just to understand why that 50 is so low. I mean, it's the lowest in the sector. It's quite difficult to triangulate.

所以我不太確定這裡發生了什麼事。您是說這對我們所謂的管理利潤沒有影響嗎？根本沒有降低 25 個基點的利率，只是因為結構性對沖現在在存款帳戶的背景下是如此之大。因此，了解為什麼 50 如此低會很有幫助。我的意思是，這是該行業中最低的。三角測量是相當困難的。

The second question, sorry this is just for the models really into the year-end, there's two bits that I'd like a bit of clarity on. Barclays UK saw a GBP4 billion increase in the early part of the year for methodology and policy changes. At the time you said that would partially reverse over the rest of the year, it doesn't seem like it has reversed yet. Is that coming in Q4? And then in the other direction the [OR1] I think is pointing to about a two and a half billion off risk increase in the fourth quarter. Is that about the right number to be sticking in the spreadsheet? Thanks.

第二個問題，抱歉，這只是針對真正到年底的模型，有兩點我想澄清一下。由於方法和政策變化，巴克萊英國公司在今年年初增加了 40 億英鎊。當你說今年剩餘時間這種情況會部分逆轉時，現在看來還沒有逆轉。這是第四季推出的嗎？然後在另一個方向上，我認為 [OR1] 指向第四季約 25 億美元的風險增加。這是貼在電子表格中的正確數字嗎？謝謝。

Okay, Jonathan, let me show the first one. So I would say, we've said GBP170 billion over three years, so I think you're probably closer to around GBP60 billion of hedge maturing. And really what's going on here is, remember you've got that underlying maturing rate at around 1.5%. So even though rates are coming down, you're still getting a pickup from the structural hedge. It's only really in the outer years when that grinds out that you're seeing that more meaningful difference. So I think it's nothing more than that, but we can talk you through that outside of here if that's helpful.

好的，喬納森，讓我展示第一個。所以我想說，我們已經說過三年內將達到 1700 億英鎊，所以我認為對沖到期的金額可能接近 600 億英鎊左右。事實上，這裡發生的事情是，記住你的基本到期利率約為 1.5%。因此，即使利率下降，結構性避險仍會回升。只有到了最後幾年，你才會看到更有意義的差異。所以我認為僅此而已，但如果有幫助的話，我們可以在外面與您討論這個問題。

Our relative sensitivity, we talked about this quite a bit as rates went up because we were clearly less rate sensitive on the way up, so you'd expect us to be less sensitive on the way down. So that is exactly what's coming through right now. Perhaps we hedge a little bit more. We certainly hedge more proactively. We are looking forward and assessing that on a monthly basis.

我們的相對敏感性，隨著利率上升，我們對此進行了相當多的討論，因為我們顯然對利率上升的情況不太敏感，所以你會期望我們對下降的情況不那麼敏感。這正是現在正在發生的事情。也許我們會多做一點對沖。我們當然會更主動地對沖。我們每月都會對此進行展望和評估。

Adjusting hedges very actively as we go to reflect the detail of customer and client behavior. I think it's a benefit of that approach that we're seeing and the fact that we've just done this very programmatically over a very long period of time. We're not seeking here to have any kind of view as to where rates will go. We're just letting the hedge roll and we're reacting to customer behavior.

當我們去反映客戶和客戶行為的細節時，非常積極地調整對沖。我認為這是我們所看到的這種方法的好處，事實上我們已經在很長一段時間內以程式設計方式完成了這項工作。我們在這裡並不是尋求對利率走向有任何看法。我們只是讓對沖滾動，我們對客戶的行為做出反應。

On the second question, I think we'll have to come back to you on that one on op-risk. So let's do that. Venkat, do you want to work on the hedging?

關於第二個問題，我想我們必須回到你關於操作風險的問題。那麼就讓我們這樣做吧。 Venkat，你想從事避險工作嗎？

I just want to emphasize the final point Anna made on structural hedging. This is programmatic, this is a hedge. We try to understand as best we can deposit behavior, deposit balances, customer behavior affecting that, and hedge it. And as Anna said, therefore, if it works very well, it should provide you with a protection, meaning you don't see the benefits as rates rise. as much as you would otherwise, and you don't see the losses as rates fall, meaning that your NII remains more stable because of that. And that's what we're trying to do, and what Anna said is perfectly right about that.

我只想強調安娜關於結構性對沖的最後一點。這是程序化的，這是對沖的。我們盡力了解存款行為、存款餘額、影響其的客戶行為，並對其進行避險。因此，正如安娜所說，如果它運作得很好，它應該為您提供保護，這意味著您不會看到利率上升的好處。與其他情況一樣，您不會看到利率下降的損失，這意味著您的 NII 因此保持更加穩定。這就是我們正在努力做的事情，安娜所說的完全正確。

Yeah, and sorry to just follow up on that. I mean, I'm fully behind the idea of hedging. That's not the issue. Just to check, though, Anna, I thought the rate sensitivity table ignored any sort of yields pick up on the hedge. I thought it was purely if the yield curve is 25 basis points lower, this is the impact on us. In which case, if you're reinvesting GBP40 billion of hedge a year at 25 basis points less, that's the entirety of, you know, average out over the year, the entirety of the GBP50 million you're pointing to in year one. which just implies everything else is nothing. Just checking that's the case.

是的，很抱歉只是跟進此事。我的意思是，我完全支持對沖的想法。那不是問題。不過，安娜，為了檢查一下，我認為利率敏感度表忽略了對沖中任何形式的殖利率上升。我認為純粹是如果殖利率曲線低25個基點，這就是對我們的影響。在這種情況下，如果您每年以少 25 個基點的價格再投資 400 億英鎊的對沖，那麼這就是您在第一年指出的 5000 萬英鎊的全年平均數的全部。這只是意味著其他一切都沒什麼。只是檢查一下情況確實如此。

It's just very small in year one, Jonathan. Let us take it outside with you. We'll come back to you.

喬納森，第一年的規模很小。讓我們把它帶到外面。我們會回來找你的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right, thank you. Next question, please.

好的，謝謝。請下一個問題。

Robin Down, HSBC. Please go ahead.

羅賓唐，匯豐銀行。請繼續。

Thanks for taking the questions and also thank you for the added disclosure on the structural heritage. That's very useful. Apologies, but I'm going to bring you back to the BUK interest income issue, and I think it is important because it's the main topic of conversation amongst investors this morning.

感謝您提出問題，也感謝您對結構遺產的補充揭露。這非常有用。抱歉，我要讓大家回到 BUK 利息收入問題，我認為這很重要，因為這是今天早上投資者討論的主要話題。

If we look at your GBP6.5 billion guide for this year, it kind of implies a Q4 run rate X test goes of kind of GBP6.8 billion, GBP6.9 billion. If we add in kind of GBP400 million for Tesco as we're at kind of [GBP7.2 billion, GBP7.3 billion], I think you're looking to grow next year. I think, especially given that 85% of the product hedge is in BUK, that the structural hedge benefit is more than going to outweigh any kind of rate reduction impact. So why are you not going to end up materially above the GBP7.1 billion that consensus has? penciled in next year? Is there something I'm missing some big kind of negative drag that you're anticipating? Thank you.

如果我們看今年的 65 億英鎊指南，這有點意味著第四季度運行率 X 測試的金額為 68 億英鎊、69 億英鎊。如果我們為特易購增加 4 億英鎊，因為我們目前的規模為 [72 億英鎊，73 億英鎊]，我認為您明年將會成長。我認為，特別是考慮到 85% 的產品對沖是在 BUK，結構性對沖收益將超過任何形式的降息影響。那麼，為什麼最終的價格不會大幅高於共識中的 71 億英鎊呢？明年用鉛筆寫嗎？我是否遺漏了您所期待的某種重大負面影響？謝謝。

So Robin, I'm not going to comment on consensus income for 2025 at this stage, but I'm just going to reiterate the fundamentals of what we're talking about here, which is BUK, we expect over the plan to have NII growth of mid-single digit. Tesco is part of that. You can see that there is NII momentum in the business organically. We've called that out. You can see it over the last two quarters. It's coming from asset growth. It's coming from the momentum from the structural hedge.

所以 Robin，現階段我不會對 2025 年的共識收入發表評論，但我只是重申我們在這裡討論的基本原理，即 BUK，我們預計該計劃將有 NII中個位數的增長。樂購是其中的一部分。您可以看到，NII 業務有機地存在動力。我們已經指出了這一點。你可以在過去兩個季度看到這一點。它來自資產成長。它來自結構性對沖的動力。

Now, as I said before, we haven't really seen the full impact of the rate cuts yet, but we would still expect the net of all of that into 2025 to be positive, and then obviously you're going to have Tesco on top of that. So I'm not going to give you specific numbers now, but the view here has not changed from where we were in February, which is we expect NII for BUK to grow.

現在，正如我之前所說，我們還沒有真正看到降息的全部影響，但我們仍然預計 2025 年所有這些影響的淨值將是積極的，然後顯然你會看到特易購最重要的是。所以我現在不會給你一個具體的數字，但這裡的觀點與我們 2 月的情況相比沒有改變，即我們預期 BUK 的 NII 會成長。

But if I come back to that, the view kind of has changed in the sense that we've now got a GBP6.5 billion interest income forecast for BUK for this year, coming up from what was an original kind of GBP6.1 billion. Can I put it slightly differently then? Is there any reason why I can't annualize Q4 at GBP6.9 billion and add GBP400 million for Tesco's. And so I have a starting base of GBP7.3 billion when I look at 2025 numbers.

但如果我回過頭來，這種觀點已經發生了變化，因為我們現在對 BUK 今年的利息收入預測為 65 億英鎊，而最初的預期為 61 億英鎊。那我可以稍微改一下嗎？我有什麼理由不能將第四季年化為 69 億英鎊，並為 Tesco 添加 4 億英鎊嗎？因此，當我查看 2025 年的數字時，我的起始基數為 73 億英鎊。

So, Robin, you're right. We have upgraded our BUK guidance. So we did start at GBP6.1 billion and we're now around GBP6.5 billion. And really what's happening here is clearly there is a change in our expectation of rates for the current year. We started in a position where we had five rate cuts in February. Now we're expecting three. And then the other three, including the one we've already had, so a further two.

所以，羅賓，你是對的。我們升級了 BUK 指導。因此，我們的起價確實為 61 億英鎊，現在約為 65 億英鎊。實際上，這裡發生的情況顯然是我們對今年利率的預期發生了變化。我們一開始就在二月進行了五次降息。現在我們期待三個。然後是其他三個，包括我們已經擁有的那個，所以還有兩個。

And then the other thing that's happening here is clearly we've seen a stabilization in that balance sheet earlier than we expected. So at the beginning of the year, I said I expected the balance sheet to get smaller before it got bigger. We've seen two quarters now, nearly three quarters of real stabilization in deposits, perhaps a bit earlier than we expected. And we've seen the asset momentum turn perhaps a little bit earlier than we expected.

然後這裡發生的另一件事顯然是我們比我們預期更早看到了資產負債表的穩定性。所以在今年年初，我說我預計資產負債表在變大之前會先變小。我們現在已經看到存款實際上穩定了兩個季度、近三個季度，或許比我們預期的要早一些。我們看到資產動能的轉變可能比我們預期的要早一些。

I'm not going to comment on your numbers for 2025. I'm really going to leave that to you, but just bring you back to our expectation that we expect NII for the UK to grow.

我不會對 2025 年的數字發表評論。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you. Next question, please.

好的。謝謝。請下一個問題。

Perlie Mong, Bank of America.

Perlie Mong，美國銀行。

So, can I – sorry, can I bring you back to the hedge? So, obviously, the hedge is a very large component of the way you manage the interest rate risk. So with the scale of the hedge, does that mean that your sensitivity to long rates would be higher than perhaps other banks or your peers or just all as equal would you expect more sensitivity to the long rates because the reason I'm asking is because there's obviously a lot of discussion around neutral rates in Europe and in the UK. So I'm just wondering is the reason why your sensitivity is a bit lower in a parallel shift scenario is, because maybe there's a little bit of difference between a short end and a long end, and so that's the first part of the question.

那麼，我可以──抱歉，我可以帶你回到樹籬嗎？因此，顯然，對沖是管理利率風險方式的一個非常重要的組成部分。因此，隨著對沖規模的擴大，這是否意味著您對長期利率的敏感度可能高於其他銀行或您的同行，或者同等情況下，您是否期望對長期利率更加敏感，因為我問的原因是因為顯然，歐洲和英國有很多關於中性利率的討論。所以我只是想知道為什麼你的靈敏度在平行移位情況下有點低，因為短端和長端之間可能有點差異，所以這是問題的第一部分。

And the second part is that it sounds like the notional is more stable than we all might have expected previously. And you previously assumed a reinvestment of 75% of the maturing hedges. I guess the question is, does it matter whether you reinvest or just simply let it roll off? Because obviously, reinvesting into a higher yield is a positive. But equally, if you run off a 1.5% hedge and then just sort of let it roll on to the variable rate. That is removing a negative and removing a drag. So does that matter whether you are reinvesting or not?

第二部分是，聽起來名義上比我們之前預期的更穩定。您之前假設 75% 的到期對沖將進行再投資。我想問題是，你是再投資還是只是讓它滾動，這很重要嗎？因為顯然，再投資以獲得更高的收益率是正面的。但同樣，如果你使用 1.5% 的對沖，然後讓它滾動到可變利率。這就是消除負面因素並消除阻力。那麼，無論您是否進行再投資，這重要嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Perlie. I will take both of those. The first is, the tenor of what we're hedging is between 2 and 7. I wouldn't say we're any more sensitive to the long end of the curve than others. We really try and reflect what we think the varying behavioral lives of the different pockets of deposits that we have. So I wouldn't call that out as a key difference.

好的。謝謝，珀利。我會接受這兩個。首先，我們對沖的期限在 2 到 7 之間。我們確實嘗試並反映了我們所認為的不同存款的不同行為壽命。所以我不會認為這是一個關鍵的區別。

And then on your second point, just to bring everybody back to this, the [75] and the [170] was indicated to give you some maps that you could then update as we go rather than a specific forecast from us to the extent that the notional is more stable. I mean, clearly we have a choice every single quarter or every single month as it rolls.

然後關於你的第二點，只是為了讓大家回到這一點，[75] 和 [170] 被指示給你一些地圖，然後你可以隨著我們的進展進行更新，而不是我們的具體預測，因為觀念上更加穩定。我的意思是，顯然我們每個季度或每個月都有一個選擇。

At the moment, you're right, we're getting a pickup from that maturity as it rolls off, even if we just left it overnight. The difference that the structural hedge gives you is it obviously secures it. So the structural hedge gives you certainty, which is why we do it programmatically, and why we're really focused on how much income are we locking in to '25 and '26, which we've shown you again on page 10. So that locked-in number is now GBP12.4 billion over the three years. So for us it's really about the certainty and stability of NII rather than the opportunist kind of every month passing. And just to remind you, that equivalent number was GBP8.6 billion in February.

目前，你是對的，隨著成熟度的下降，我們正在從成熟度中得到回升，即使我們只是把它留了一夜。結構性對沖給你帶來的不同之處在於它顯然可以保護它。因此，結構性對沖為您提供了確定性，這就是為什麼我們以編程方式進行操作，也是為什麼我們真正關注我們鎖定到“25”和“26”的收入，我們已在第10 頁再次向您展示了這一點。因此，對我們來說，真正重要的是 NII 的確定性和穩定性，而不是每個月過去的機會主義。提醒您一下，2 月份的相應數字為 86 億英鎊。

Okay, thank you, Perlie. I think we are going to our last questions in the queue, please. Thank you.

好的，謝謝你，珀利。我想我們現在要討論隊列中的最後一個問題。謝謝。

Andrew Coombs, Citigroup.

安德魯庫姆斯，花旗集團。

Morning, Dave. Two questions, one more precise, one broad. On the precise question, just Pillar 2 offset. You talk about the Pillar 2 modest increase followed by a part offset of the later RWA inflation. It's probably too early, but anything you can provide in terms of quantum and does that potentially even change your 13% to 14% Q1 ratio target. So, that's the first question.

早上好，戴夫。兩個問題，一個比較精確，一個比較廣泛。在精確的問題上，只是支柱 2 的抵銷。您談到了第二支柱的適度增長，隨後部分抵消了後來的 RWA 通膨。現在可能還為時過早，但是您可以提供任何量子方面的信息，甚至可能會改變您 13% 至 14% 的第一季比率目標。所以，這是第一個問題。

Second question, much more broad-based question, looking into the budget, thinking about both the UK business and the investment bank. Assuming we don't get a bank tax, is there anything else you're particularly looking at in terms of when you're thinking about future customer activity, be that CGT in the buy-to-let market, be it employers, national insurance contributions and the SMEs, et cetera, et cetera? Thank you.

第二個問題，更廣泛的問題，研究預算，考慮英國企業和投資銀行。假設我們沒有繳納銀行稅，那麼當您考慮未來的客戶活動時，還有什麼是您特別關注的嗎？ 無論是買房出租市場的資本利得稅（CGT），還是雇主、國家或地區的企業所得稅，保險繳款和中小企業等等？謝謝。

Okay. Thank you, Andy. So, really too early to say. What we've called out here is that, as you can imagine, in advance of implementing this model, we actually have been holding some Pillar 2A already. There may be some modest increase in that before we implement the model in full. So that's all we're calling out. It's difficult to give any specific guidance around quantum or exact timing, but you'll note that we said modest. And just reiterating, we are already holding pillar 2A for this.

好的。謝謝你，安迪。所以，現在說還太早。我們在這裡指出的是，正如你可以想像的那樣，在實施這個模型之前，我們實際上已經掌握了一些支柱 2A。在我們完全實施該模型之前，這一數字可能會略有增加。這就是我們所呼籲的。很難就量子或精確時間給出任何具體指導，但你會注意到我們說的是適度的。重申一下，我們已經為此堅持了第 2A 支柱。

And then the other point I'd make is that obviously we still await some Basel guidance from the PRA. So there is some expectation that we'll get some guidance around Pillar 2 offsets where they're really trying to avoid double counting between Pillar 1 in Basel and Pillar 2A that exists currently. And really, we need to see all this put together holistically before we give you firmer guidance.

我要說的另一點是，顯然我們仍在等待 PRA 的一些巴塞爾指南。因此，人們期望我們會得到一些有關第二支柱抵消的指導，他們確實試圖避免巴塞爾第一支柱和當前存在的第二支柱 2A 之間的重複計算。事實上，在給你們更堅定的指導之前，我們需要將所有這些綜合起來。

And on the budget, listen, obviously, we're a large UK bank which operates across different sectors of the economy. So whether it's taxation, whether it's borrowing and financing by the government, whether it's private investment and helping with public investment, whether it's individual investment behavior that comes out of whatever the budget says, we would expect to see activity across everything which we do. I can't tell you where and how much and what the net of it is, but expect us to be actively engaged across all the different dimensions of it.

在預算方面，聽著，顯然，我們是一家大型英國銀行，業務涉及不同的經濟部門。因此，無論是稅收，無論是政府借貸和融資，無論是私人投資和幫助公共投資，無論是預算所說的個人投資行為，我們都希望看到我們所做的一切活動。我無法告訴你它的位置、數量和網絡是什麼，但希望我們能夠積極參與它的所有不同方面。

With that, thank you everybody.

在此，謝謝大家。

Yes, thank you very much everybody. I really look forward to seeing some of you on the road and we will see you at the sell-side breakfast in November. But thank you for your continued interest in Barclays. Have a great day.

是的，非常感謝大家。我真的很期待在路上見到你們，我們將在 11 月的賣方早餐會上見到你們。但感謝您對巴克萊銀行的持續關注。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。