(BCS) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclays Q1 2024 Results Analyst and Investor Conference Call.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2024 年第一季業績分析師和投資者電話會議。

I will now hand over to C.S. Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, before I hand over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director.

現在我將把工作交給集團執行長 C.S. Venkatakrishnan，然後再交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us on today's results call for the first quarter of 2024. At our investor update, a little over 9 weeks ago, we set out a 3-year plan to deliver a better run, more strongly performing and higher-returning Barclays. To do so, we aim to make Barclays a simpler, better and more balanced bank. We are executing in a disciplined way against this plan, and this is our first progress report against our longer journey.

早安.感謝您參加今天的2024 年第一季業績電話會議。巴克萊。為此，我們的目標是讓巴克萊成為一家更簡單、更好、更平衡的銀行。我們正在以嚴格的方式執行該計劃，這是我們針對長期旅程的第一份進度報告。

I am happy with our overall Q1 performance, which keeps pace with our financial targets for 2024 to 2026. These are: First, grow returns with a target RoTE of above 12% in 2026; second, to rebalance the bank with a target to reduce RWAs in the Investment Bank from 58% of group RWAs to around 50% in 2026; and third, to distribute more capital to shareholders, with a target of returning at least GBP 10 billion over 2024 to 2026. We also set a target for return on tangible equity above 10% in 2024. And in the first quarter, we delivered 12.3%, in line with our plan.

我對我們第一季的整體表現感到滿意，它與我們 2024 年至 2026 年的財務目標保持同步。其次，重新平衡銀行，目標是到 2026 年將投資銀行的 RWA 從集團 RWA 的 58% 減少到 50% 左右；第三，向股東分配更多資本，目標是2024年至2026年回報至少100億英鎊。符合我們的計劃。

Total income for the quarter was GBP 7 billion, of which group net interest income, excluding the Investment Bank and Head Office, was GBP 2.7 billion. Our cost-to-income ratio was 60%, demonstrating ongoing cost discipline as we see the benefit of the cost actions, which we took in the fourth quarter of last year coming through. We achieved around GBP 200 million of gross cost efficiency savings in Q1, out of our targeted GBP 1 billion for the full year 2024. We remain well capitalized.

該季度總收入為70億英鎊，其中集團淨利息收入（不包括投資銀行和總部）為27億英鎊。我們的成本收入比為 60%，這表明我們持續實施成本紀律，因為我們看到了去年第四季採取的成本行動的好處。我們在第一季實現了約 2 億英鎊的總成本效率節省，而我們的目標是 2024 年全年 10 億英鎊。

Our CET1 ratio was 13.5%, which is at the midpoint of our target range. And we have completed about 35% of the GBP 1 billion share buyback, which we announced at full year 2023. Across the bank, and within each of our five divisions, we are driving an improved operational and financial performance to enhance returns, which Anna will cover in more detail shortly.

我們的 CET1 比率為 13.5%，處於我們目標範圍的中點。我們已經完成了 2023 年全年宣布的 10 億英鎊股票回購中的約 35%。介紹。

Our business resegmentation and the framework of targets, which we laid out on the 20th of February, have helped to provide both internal and external transparency as well as accountability in our delivery. As Anna and I talked to our colleagues across Barclays, we are encouraged by how the organization has embraced this plan.

我們於 2 月 20 日制定的業務重新劃分和目標框架有助於提供內部和外部透明度以及交付過程中的問責制。當安娜和我與巴克萊銀行的同事交談時，我們對該組織如何接受這項計劃感到鼓舞。

In February, we described a 3-year plan of measured ambition and disciplined execution. As part of this, we have set up a transformation office, which is responsible for monitoring our delivery across all aspects of the plan. One important aspect was proceeding with a nonstrategic business disposal that we announced at our investor update. We have announced the sale of our performing Italian mortgage portfolio, and we remain in advanced discussions on the sale of our German consumer business.

二月份，我們制定了一項雄心勃勃、執行嚴格的三年計畫。作為其中的一部分，我們設立了一個轉型辦公室，負責監控計畫各個方面的交付。一個重要的方面是繼續進行我們在投資者更新中宣布的非策略性業務處置。我們已經宣佈出售表現良好的義大利抵押貸款投資組合，並且仍在就出售德國消費者業務進行深入討論。

Turning to the financial side. Overall, we are where we expected to be at this stage. You can see on this slide the returns on tangible equity for each of our divisions and for the group for the quarter alongside our 2026 targets. These are the most important metrics for me and the executive committee team, and Anna will take you through each of them shortly after I cover a few points on divisional execution.

轉向財務方面。整體而言，我們處於現階段的預期狀態。您可以在這張投影片上看到我們每個部門和集團本季的有形股本回報率以及我們的 2026 年目標。這些對我和執行委員會團隊來說是最重要的指標，在我介紹了有關部門執行的幾點後不久，安娜將帶您了解每一個指標。

In the Investment Bank, we are continuing our journey to improve returns. RoTE for the quarter was 12%, broadly in line with the group. As with any quarter, there were some areas of strength, some areas of potential improvement and others where we should do better. We said in February that we will hold ourselves to account in a detailed and transparent way on a group basis and by division.

在投資銀行，我們正在繼續提高回報的旅程。本季的 RoTE 為 12%，與集團基本一致。就像任何季度一樣，我們有一些優勢領域，一些有潛力改進的領域，還有一些我們應該做得更好的領域。我們在二月表示，我們將以集團和部門以詳細、透明的方式進行問責。

In Global Markets, we did not capture market opportunities to the same extent as some of our competitors did. For example, FICC was not as strong as we would have liked, and we will have more to do on European rates, 1 of the 3 focus areas, which we identified in February. On the other hand, we are starting to monetize investments made in the other identified focus areas, securitized products and equity derivatives. I'm pleased about this, and Anna will talk to you about this in more detail.

在全球市場，我們沒有像一些競爭對手那樣抓住市場機會。例如，FICC 並沒有我們希望的那麼強大，我們將在歐洲利率方面做更多的事情，歐洲利率是我們在 2 月確定的 3 個重點領域之一。另一方面，我們開始將其他確定的重點領域、證券化產品和股權衍生性商品的投資貨幣化。我對此感到很高興，安娜將與您更詳細地討論這一點。

In Investment Banking, DCM delivered an improved performance in the quarter, and we have the potential to do better. As we said at the investor update, we are focused on improving our performance in ECM and advisory, but there is naturally a longer pathway to success in these businesses. As an example of our progress in advisory, our recently established energy transition group has announced 9 transactions since late December, showcasing our active advisory role in one of our focus sectors.

在投資銀行業務方面，DCM 本季的業績有所改善，我們有潛力做得更好。正如我們在投資者更新中所說，我們專注於提高 ECM 和諮詢領域的業績，但這些業務的成功之路自然更長。作為我們在諮詢方面取得進展的一個例子，我們最近成立的能源轉型小組自 12 月底以來已宣布了 9 項交易，展示了我們在我們的重點領域之一的積極諮詢作用。

In Barclays UK, we expect our recently announced acquisition of Tesco Bank to complete in the fourth quarter of this year. Our strategic partnership with the U.K.'s largest retailer will help accelerate our planned growth in unsecured lending in our home market. This is an important step in our plan to deploy an additional GBP 30 billion of RWAs into our higher returning U.K. businesses: Barclays UK, the UK Corporate Bank and the Private Banking and Wealth Management division. Over the medium term, this will rebalance RWAs between our businesses and support more consistent and higher return for our shareholders.

在英國巴克萊銀行，我們預計最近宣布的樂購銀行的收購將在今年第四季完成。我們與英國最大零售商的策略合作夥伴關係將有助於加速我們在國內市場無擔保貸款的計畫成長。這是我們計劃向回報率更高的英國業務額外部署 300 億英鎊 RWA 的重要一步：英國巴克萊銀行、英國企業銀行以及私人銀行和財富管理部門。從中期來看，這將重新平衡我們業務之間的 RWA，並為我們的股東提供更一致和更高的回報。

One divisional number that stands out on this slide is 5.3% RoTE in our US Consumer Bank. Although this has progressed from last year's 4.1% RoTE, we recognize we have a lot more to do in order to deliver returns in line with our overall group target of above 12% in 2026. And we have a detailed plan to do so as we set out in February. There was a notable point of execution in this quarter in this division. We announced the sale of $1.1 billion of credit card receivables to Blackstone as we manage capital in the business and strive to improve returns. Our UK Corporate Bank delivered a RoTE of 15.2%. We look forward to telling you more about this business in a deep dive scheduled for the 18th of June.

這張投影片上最引人注目的一個部門數字是我們美國消費者銀行 5.3% 的 RoTE。儘管這比去年4.1% 的RoTE 有所進步，但我們認識到，為了實現2026 年集團整體目標12% 以上的回報，我們還有很多工作要做。因為我們2月出發。本季該部門有一個值得注意的執行點。我們宣布向 Blackstone 出售 11 億美元的信用卡應收帳款，以管理業務資本並努力提高回報。我們的英國企業銀行的 RoTE 為 15.2%。我們期待在 6 月 18 日的深入探討中向您介紹有關這項業務的更多資訊。

I will now hand over to Anna to take you through the first quarter financials in more detail.

現在我將請安娜向您詳細介紹第一季的財務狀況。

Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone. On Slide 6, we have laid out the Q1 financial highlights for Barclays, and you'll see the same throughout the presentation for each business. I won't go through these slides, but have included them for ease of reference.

謝謝你，Venkat，大家早安。在投影片 6 上，我們列出了巴克萊銀行第一季的財務亮點，您將在整個簡報中看到每個業務的相同內容。我不會瀏覽這些幻燈片，但為了方便參考而將它們包括在內。

Starting on Slide 7. The headline message is that Q1 was in line with the plan we laid out at the investor update in February. We delivered a RoTE of 12.3% and earnings per share of 10.3p in Q1. There were a number of items driving the year-on-year RoTE move. Income and returns were lower in the Investment Bank compared to a strong prior year Q1 comparator. Operating costs, which excludes bank levy and litigation and conduct, were down 3% reflecting ongoing strong cost discipline as well as efficiency savings, including some benefits from the structural cost actions taken in Q4 2023.

從投影片 7 開始。我們第一季的 RoTE 為 12.3%，每股收益為 10.3p。有許多因素推動 RoTE 年成長。與去年第一季的強勁比較相比，投資銀行的收入和回報率較低。營運成本（不包括銀行徵費、訴訟和行為）下降了 3%，反映出持續嚴格的成本紀律和效率節約，包括 2023 年第四季採取的結構性成本行動帶來的一些好處。

Total costs were up 2% year-on-year at GBP 4.2 billion, which included GBP 120 million charge in Q1 '24 from the revised Bank of England levy scheme. We expect this to be partially offset by increased income over the course of the year, resulting in a net annualized reduction in [PBT] of circa GBP 50 million for 2024. Impairment was broadly flat year-on-year. And finally, TNAV per share increased 34p year-on-year to 335p, including the effect of a less negative cash flow hedge reserve driven by the rate environment as expected. Overall, we continue to target our statutory RoTE of above 10% in 2024.

總成本年增 2%，達到 42 億英鎊，其中包括 24 年第一季修訂後的英格蘭銀行徵稅計畫收取的 1.2 億英鎊費用。我們預計這一損失將被全年收入增加所部分抵消，從而導致 2024 年 [PBT] 年化淨減少約 5000 萬英鎊。最後，每股 TNAV 年增 34 便士，達到 335 便士，其中包括利率環境推動的負現金流對沖準備金減少的影響，正如預期的那樣。整體而言，我們繼續將 2024 年法定 RoTE 目標定為 10% 以上。

At our investor update in February, we emphasized the quality and stability of our income. The more stable revenues we generate from retail, corporate and financing in the Investment Bank provides balance to our income profile. I will talk about the individual business drivers shortly. Together, these contributed 68% of group income in Q1 and are expected to continue to grow above 70% by 2026.

在二月的投資者更新中，我們強調了收入的品質和穩定性。我們從零售、企業和投資銀行融資中獲得的更穩定的收入為我們的收入狀況提供了平衡。我將很快討論各個業務驅動因素。這些合計佔第一季集團營收的 68%，預計到 2026 年將繼續成長 70% 以上。

Total income was down 4% year-on-year at GBP 7 billion and group net interest income, excluding the IB and Head Office, was GBP 2.7 billion, as you can see on Slide 9. NII was broadly stable year-on-year. Even there, the balance sheet composition and rate outlook are very different between those 2 points in time. Our long-term structural hedge tailwind offset the pressure on NII from deposit movements and mortgage margins as well as rate headwinds going forward. We still expect group NII ex-Investment Bank and Head Office of circa GBP 10.7 billion for the full year and Barclays UK NII of circa GBP 6.1 billion, excluding Tesco Bank, which we now expect to complete in Q4 2024. Deposit balances were impacted by seasonal reductions in Q1, in part due to [tax] payments. We expect underlying deposit trends to continue to slow after Q1 and loans to stabilize in the second half.

總收入年減 4%，為 70 億英鎊，集團淨利息收入（不包括 IB 和總部）為 27 億英鎊，如幻燈片 9 所示。即使在那裡，這兩個時間點的資產負債表組成和利率前景也有很大不同。我們的長期結構性對沖順風抵消了存款變動和抵押貸款利潤率以及未來利率逆風對NII的壓力。我們仍然預計全年集團前投資銀行和總行的NII 約為107 億英鎊，巴克萊英國的NII 約為61 億英鎊（不包括特易購銀行），我們現在預計該項目將在2024 年第四季度完成。我們預計第一季後基礎存款趨勢將持續放緩，下半年貸款將趨於穩定。

We expect the benefit from the structural hedge, which you can see on Slide 10, to largely offset these product dynamics, resulting in a broadly stable NII. As a reminder, the structural hedge is designed to reduce volatility in NII and manage interest rate risk. As rates have risen, the hedge has dampened the growth in our NII, and in a falling rate environment, we will see the benefit from the protection that [it gives us]. We have around GBP 170 billion of hedges maturing between 2024 and 2026 at an average yield of 1.5%, significantly lower than current swap rates.

我們預計結構性對沖帶來的好處（您可以在投影片 10 中看到）將在很大程度上抵消這些產品動態，從而導致 NII 大致穩定。需要提醒的是，結構性對沖旨在減少NII的波動性並管理利率風險。隨著利率上升，對沖抑制了我們NII的成長，在利率下降的環境中，我們將看到[它為我們提供的]保護帶來的好處。我們有約 1,700 億英鎊的避險工具將於 2024 年至 2026 年間到期，平均殖利率為 1.5%，遠低於目前掉期利率。

The expected NII tailwind is significant and predictable. GBP 9.3 billion of aggregate income is now locked in over the 3 years to the end of 2026, up from GBP 8.6 billion at the year-end. As we said in February, we're investing around 3/4 of GBP 170 billion at around 3.5% would compound over the next 3 years to increase structural hedge income in 2026 by circa GBP 2 billion versus 2023.

預期的 NII 順風是顯著且可預測的。截至 2026 年底的 3 年內，目前鎖定的總收入為 93 億英鎊，高於年底的 86 億英鎊。正如我們在2 月所說，我們將投資1700 億英鎊中的約3/4，在未來3 年內以3.5% 左右的複利計算，從而使2026 年的結構性對沖收入比2023 年增加約20 億英鎊。

Turning now to costs on Slide 11. Total costs were up 2% at GBP 4.2 billion, including the GBP 120 million charge from the revised Bank of England levy scheme. Operating costs were down 3% year-on-year. Our cost-to-income ratio was 60%. And despite the levy, we still expect it to be circa 63% for 2024. We expect a total of GBP 1 billion of efficiency savings of full year 2024, half of which will be driven by the structural cost actions we took in 2023 and half by prior and ongoing efficiency investments. We have achieved GBP 0.2 billion of this in Q1. These efficiencies have enabled us to offset inflation, regulatory and control spend and created capacity for investments.

現在轉向幻燈片 11 上的成本。營運成本較去年同期下降3%。我們的成本收入比是60%。儘管徵稅，我們仍預計2024 年的效率約為63%。在2023 年採取的結構性成本行動推動透過先前和持續的效率投資。我們在第一季已實現 2 億英鎊。這些效率使我們能夠抵消通貨膨脹、監管和控制支出並創造投資能力。

Turning now to impairment on Slide 12. The loan loss rate of 51 basis points for the quarter was within our previous cycle guidance of 50 to 60, and the impairment charge was broadly flat year-on-year, up GBP 513 million. The Barclays UK charge was GBP 58 million, equating to an 11 basis point loan loss rate. Starting from this low and stable base, we expect to track towards circa 35 basis points over time as we complete the Tesco Bank acquisition and grow the balance sheet as outlined at our investor update. The charge of GBP 410 million in the US Consumer Bank increased year-on-year, whilst the loan loss rate was 610 basis points, a slight decrease on the Q4 level.

現在轉向投影片 12 上的減損。巴克萊英國的費用為 5,800 萬英鎊，相當於貸款損失率 11 個基點。從這個低而穩定的基數開始，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們完成對樂購銀行的收購併擴大資產負債表（如投資者更新所述），我們預計將實現約 35 個基點。美國消費者銀行費用年增4.1億英鎊，貸款損失率為610個基點，較第四季略為下降。

Slide 13 shows that our actual loss experience in the US Consumer Bank remains low, although we have seen a sequential quarterly increase in write-offs as delinquency rates have increased in line with the industry. As we've said before, we expect the write-offs to increase during the remainder of this year, which is why we have been building reserves. We expect the US Consumer Bank impairment charge to remain elevated through the first half of 2024 and to improve in the second half, resulting in a lower full year charge this year, and we continue to guide to loan loss rates trending down towards the long-term average of circa 400 basis points.

投影片 13 顯示，我們在美國消費者銀行的實際損失經驗仍然很低，儘管我們看到沖銷額連續季度增加，因為拖欠率與行業一致增加。正如我們之前所說，我們預計今年剩餘時間內沖銷將會增加，這就是我們一直在建立儲備的原因。我們預計美國消費者銀行的減損費用將在 2024 年上半年保持在較高水平，並在下半年有所改善，導致今年全年費用降低，我們繼續引導貸款損失率向長期下降趨勢發展。約400 個基點。

Turning now to the businesses. As I mentioned, you can see Barclays UK financial highlights and targets on Slide 14, but I will talk to Slide 15. RoTE was 18.5% and total income was GBP 1.8 billion, down GBP 135 million year-on-year, driven by the product dynamics in deposits and mortgages, lower [cards] income and the transferred UK Wealth in Q2 2023. NII of GBP 1.5 billion was broadly stable from Q4, and we continue to target circa GBP 6.1 billion of NII for Barclays UK in 2024, supported by the strength of the structural hedge tailwind. The NII target excludes Tesco Bank, which we expect to contribute circa GBP 400 million of additional annualized NII following Q4 2024 completion.

現在轉向企業。正如我所提到的，您可以在幻燈片14 上看到巴克萊英國的財務亮點和目標，但我將討論幻燈片15。 ，原因是存款和抵押貸款產品動態、[卡]收入下降以及2023 年第二季度轉移的英國財富。 2024 年約61 億英鎊的NII，支持結構性對沖順風的強度。 NII 目標不包括樂購銀行 (Tesco Bank)，我們預計該銀行將在 2024 年第四季完成後額外貢獻約 4 億英鎊的年度 NII。

Non-NII was GBP 277 million in the quarter, following the non-repeat of one-off in Q4 last year. We expect a run rate greater than GBP 250 million per quarter going forward as we guided in Q4. Total costs were GBP 1.1 billion, down 3% due to efficiency savings and the transfer of UK Wealth in Q2 last year, partially offset by an increase of GBP 54 million from the revised Bank of England's levy scheme. Cost to income ratio was 58%.

繼去年第四季不再重複一次性支出後，本季非 NII 為 2.77 億英鎊。正如我們在第四季度的指導，我們預計未來每季的運行率將超過 2.5 億英鎊。由於去年第二季的效率節約和英國財富轉移，總成本為 11 億英鎊，下降了 3%，部分被修訂後的英格蘭銀行徵稅計劃增加的 5,400 萬英鎊所抵消。成本收入比為58%。

Moving on to the Barclays UK customer balance sheet on Slide 16. Normal Q1 seasonality was a contributor to the GBP 3.9 billion deposit reduction from Q4 to GBP 237 billion. Underlying deposit trends were as expected and broadly consistent with Q4. Deposit migration has continued to slow and pricing in the savings market has stabilized. On the lending side, lead indicators, such as mortgage applications and card acquisition volumes, are largely positive, but will take time to flow into the balance sheet.

接下來看投影片 16 上的巴克萊英國客戶資產負債表。基本存款趨勢符合預期，與第四季基本一致。存款遷移持續放緩，儲蓄市場定價趨於穩定。在貸款方面，抵押貸款申請和信用卡獲取量等領先指標基本上呈現正面趨勢，但需要時間才能流入資產負債表。

Gross mortgage lending remained in line with 2023 trends with balances of GBP 163 billion. However, we grew our flow share in high loan-to-value mortgages as per our stated ambition. UK card balances were stable at circa GBP 10 billion. Acquisition volumes are strong and consumer spending was in line with expectations, whilst repayment rates remain high.

抵押貸款總額與 2023 年趨勢保持一致，餘額為 1,630 億英鎊。然而，根據我們既定的目標，我們增加了高貸款價值抵押貸款的流量份額。英國卡餘額穩定在約 100 億英鎊。收購量強勁，消費者支出符合預期，還款率仍很高。

Moving on to the financial highlights for the UK Corporate Bank on Slide 17. This is new divisional disclosures since our resegmentation, so the numbers may be less familiar. As a reminder, our UK Corporate Bank serve midsized UK corporate clients and has relationships with around 25% of the UK market and include our corporate card issuing business.

接下來是幻燈片 17 上英國企業銀行的財務亮點。謹此提醒，我們的英國企業銀行為英國中型企業客戶提供服務，並與約 25% 的英國市場建立了合作關係，其中包括我們的公司卡發行業務。

As you can see on Slide 18, the UK Corporate Bank RoTE was 15.2%. Income was down 6% year-on-year at GBP 434 million, primarily due to the interest rates and inflationary environment driving lower returns from the liquidity pool. Total costs increased by 20%, reflecting investment spend to support growth and the impact of the revised Bank of England levy scheme, which alone reduced RoTE by around 3 percentage points.

正如您在幻燈片 18 中看到的，英國企業銀行 RoTE 為 15.2%。營收年減 6%，至 4.34 億英鎊，主要是由於利率和通膨環境導致流動性池回報下降。總成本增加了 20%，反映出支持成長的投資支出以及修訂後的英格蘭銀行徵費計畫的影響，光是該計畫就使 RoTE 降低了約 3 個百分點。

Turning now to Private Banking and Wealth Management, which is another one of our newly resegmented division, created following the combination of our Private Bank and UK Wealth businesses in Q2 last year. This is a high-returning business with opportunities for growth going forward.

現在轉向私人銀行和財富管理，這是我們新重新劃分的另一個部門，是在去年第二季私人銀行和英國財富業務合併後創建的。這是一項高回報的業務，並且具有未來成長的機會。

Moving to Slide 20. RoTE was 28.7%, supported by growth in client assets and liabilities. Although we have not restated the historical financials prior to the UK Wealth transfer in Q2 last year, we have called out the RoTE impact of circa 3.4%. Income increased by around GBP 50 million year-on-year, driven by GBP 48 billion of balance growth, both from the UK Wealth transfer and an underlying GBP 19 billion increase, consistent with strong equity market levels. This was partially offset by continued, although slowing deposit migration. Costs increased year-on-year, mostly as a result of the transfer, but also due to ongoing investments in growing the business.

轉到投影片 20。儘管我們沒有重述去年第二季英國財富轉移之前的歷史財務數據，但我們已經指出 RoTE 的影響約為 3.4%。營收年增約 5,000 萬英鎊，主要得益於 480 億英鎊的餘額成長（來自英國財富轉移和 190 億英鎊的基礎成長），這與強勁的股市水準一致。這被持續但緩慢的存款遷移所部分抵消。成本同比增加，主要是由於轉移的結果，但也由於對業務成長的持續投資。

Turning now to the investment side on Slide 22. The Investment Bank delivered a Q1 RoTE of 12%. Total income of GBP 3.3 billion was down 7% versus a strong year-on-year comparator. Total costs were down 2%, driven by non-repeat of last year's European levy, lower performance-related costs and included this quarter's Bank of England levy charge of GBP 33 million, resulting in a CIR of 60%. RWAs were up GBP 3 billion on Q4, reflecting normal seasonality. RWA productivity, measured by income over average RWA, was 6.5%. The plan remains to improve Investment Bank RWA productivity, whilst keeping RWAs in the division broadly flat as we set out in the investor update.

現在轉向投影片 22 上的投資面向。總收入為 33 億英鎊，與去年同期相比下降 7%。總成本下降了 2%，原因是不再重複去年的歐洲徵稅、績效相關成本降低以及本季度英格蘭銀行徵收的 3,300 萬英鎊徵費，導致 CIR 達到 60%。第四季 RWA 增加 30 億英鎊，反映了正常的季節性。 RWA 生產力（以收入與平均 RWA 比率衡量）為 6.5%。該計劃仍然是提高投資銀行 RWA 生產力，同時保持該部門的 RWA 基本持平，正如我們在投資者更新中所述。

Now looking at the specific income drivers for each business line in more detail on Slide 23. When we think about this business versus our peers, we used a U.S. dollar comparator. So that's what I will talk to here. Market income was down 5% year-on-year. Within this, equities was up 30%, and FICC was down 19%, with both comparisons impacted by specific items. Equities included a nonrecurring gain on Visa B shares of GBP 125 million and was up 11%, excluding this, with good performance in cash, prime and equity derivatives, one of our focused businesses from the investor update.

現在，在投影片 23 上更詳細地了解每個業務線的特定收入驅動因素。這就是我要在這裡討論的內容。市場收入較去年同期下降5%。其中，股票上漲 30%，FICC 下跌 19%，兩者的比較都受到特定項目的影響。股票包括 Visa B 股票的非經常性收益 1.25 億英鎊，上漲 11%（不包括此在內），現金、主要產品和股票衍生品表現良好，這是投資者更新中我們重點關注的業務之一。

FICC performance in Q1 last year included inflation linked scheme, which we called out at this time, with income down 14%, excluding this driven by industry-wide lower activity in [macro]. We can do better here. We have work to do to regain market share in European rates, another of our focused businesses. Conversely, the market for securitized products, our third focus business, has been favorable. And given the investments made, we have been able to monetize this more than we would have done in the past. Excluding the inflation-linked gains last year, financing income across FICC and equities remained around GBP 700 million, providing the more stable income stream to market that we have focused on.

去年第一季的 FICC 表現包括我們此時呼籲的通膨掛鉤計劃，收入下降了 14%，不包括由全行業[宏觀]活動較低所驅動的因素。我們在這裡可以做得更好。我們還有很多工作要做，以重新獲得歐洲利率市場份額，這是我們的另一個重點業務。相反，我們的第三個重點業務－證券化產品的市場一直很有利。考慮到所做的投資，我們已經能夠比過去更多地貨幣化。剔除去年與通膨掛鉤的收益，FICC和股票的融資收入維持在7億英鎊左右，為我們關注的市場提供了更穩定的收入來源。

Investment Banking fee income was up 6% year-on-year in dollar terms. DCM delivered improved performance across both investment-grade and leveraged finance, and ECM also shows encouraging signs of recovery. Advisory income was lower against the strong comparator, but we have a healthy pipeline of announced deals, which will add to revenue on completion. As with the UK Corporate Bank, international Corporate Bank income was impacted year-on-year by the change in rates and inflationary environment on deposit and liquidity pool returns.

以美元計算，投資銀行手續費收入較去年同期成長6%。 DCM 在投資等級和槓桿融資方面的表現都有所改善，ECM 也顯示出令人鼓舞的復甦跡象。與強大的比較者相比，諮詢收入較低，但我們有大量已宣布的交易，這些交易完成後將增加收入。與英國企業銀行一樣，國際企業銀行的營收年增率受到利率變動和通膨環境對存款和流動性池報酬的影響。

Turning now to the US Consumer Bank on Slide 25. The US Consumer Bank generated RoTE of 5.3%, reflecting higher impairments versus the prior year, which more than offset higher income and lower cost. Income growth of 4% included an increase in NII on higher card balances year-on-year. Total costs were down by 9%, reflecting efficiency savings and lower marketing spend driving our cost-to-income ratio of 46%. And net receivables reduced in line with normal seasonal trends in Q1 versus Q4 and also included the sale of $1.1 billion of own brand credit card receivables for Blackstone, ending the quarter at just over $30 billion. As a reminder, this transaction reduced RWA due to derecognition of these receivables, which we continue to service for a fee.

現在轉向幻燈片 25 上的美國消費者銀行。收入增長 4%，其中卡餘額同比增加導致 NII 增加。總成本下降了 9%，反映出效率節省和行銷支出降低，使我們的成本收入比達到 46%。與第四季相比，第一季應收帳款淨額減少，符合正常季節性趨勢，其中還包括Blackstone 出售的11 億美元自有品牌信用卡應收帳款，本季結束時應收帳款淨額略高於300 億美元。謹此提醒，由於終止確認這些應收帳款，本交易減少了 RWA，而我們仍繼續提供收費服務。

The late fees legislation, once it comes into effect later this year, will be a headwind to fee income, but we expect to mitigate this through actions to drive higher NII, including from revised pricing, although there will be a lag whilst these actions are introduced. We are looking to increase the proportion of core deposits in our funding mix in this business to around 75% by 2026. At 67%, the mix was broadly unchanged from last year, but up sequentially from year-end levels.

滯納金立法一旦在今年稍後生效，將成為費用收入的阻力，但我們預計透過採取行動推動更高的NII（包括修訂定價）來緩解這一問題，儘管這些行動在實施過程中會存在滯後。介紹了。我們希望在 2026 年將核心存款在該業務融資組合中的比例提高到 75% 左右。

Turning now to Head Office on Slide 26. Head Office income was up 22% year-on-year, up GBP 194 million, driven by gain on disposal of legacy investments and increased German cards income, partially offset by lower payments income, hedge accounting from treasury items. The sale of our performing Italian retail mortgage book is expected to complete in Q2, generating a pretax loss of circa GBP 225 million, whilst reducing RWA by circa GBP 0.8 billion. The transaction will have a negative 2024 RoTE impact of circa 45 basis points, which is broadly mutual to capital. We are also in discussions with respect to the disposals of the remaining nonperforming and Swiss franc-linked portfolio. We expect these disposals to generate a small pretax loss, but again be broadly neutral to the capital.

現在轉向幻燈片 26 上的總部。我們表現良好的義大利零售抵押貸款帳簿的出售預計將在第二季完成，產生約 2.25 億英鎊的稅前損失，同時減少 RWA 約 8 億英鎊。該交易將對 2024 年 RoTE 產生約 45 個基點的負面影響，這對資本來說基本上是相互影響的。我們也正在討論剩餘不良資產和與瑞士法郎掛鉤的投資組合的處置。我們預計這些處置將產生少量稅前損失，但對資本來說總體上是中性的。

Turning now to the balance sheet, starting with capital on Slide 27. The CET1 ratio was 13.5% at the end of Q1, where we expect it to be in the middle of our target range and down 30 basis points on the year-end. This reflected seasonally higher capital usage in Q1 and the ongoing GBP 1 billion full year 2023 buyback that comes off the CET1 ratio post year-end. Our capital distribution plans remain unchanged, to return at least GBP 10 billion of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, with fifth year total broadly in line with the 2023 level of GBP 3 billion.

現在轉向資產負債表，從幻燈片 27 上的資本開始。這反映了第一季資本使用量的季節性增加以及 2023 年全年 10 億英鎊的持續回購，該回購額在年底後已脫離 CET1 比率。我們的資本分配計畫維持不變，即在 2024 年至 2026 年間向股東返還至少 100 億英鎊資本，第五年總額與 2023 年 30 億英鎊的水平大致一致。

Moving on to risk-weighted assets in Slide 28. RWA increased around GBP 7 billion, in line with our expectations, driven by normal seasonal trends versus Q4 in the Investment Bank. There were also some regulatory model changes in Barclays UK, which we expect to be partially offset over the course of this year. Our guidance remains from regulatory-driven RWA inflation to be at the lower end of 5% to 10% of December 2023 group RWAs as we reiterated in February. As I noted earlier, TNAV per share reached 335p, up 34p year-on-year, driven by attributable profit and the reduced cash flow hedge reserve drag on shareholders' equity. Additionally, share repurchases reduced our share count by 4% over the same time frame, driving TNAV accretion of 7p per share.

轉向幻燈片 28 中的風險加權資產。巴克萊英國公司的監管模式也發生了一些變化，我們預計這些變化將在今年得到部分抵銷。正如我們在 2 月重申的那樣，我們的指導仍然是監管驅動的 RWA 通膨為 2023 年 12 月集團 RWA 的 5% 至 10% 的下限。正如我之前指出的，每股 TNAV 達到 335 便士，同比增長 34 便士，這是由於應占利潤以及現金流對沖儲備減少對股東權益的拖累所推動的。此外，股票回購使我們的股票數量在同一時間範圍內減少了 4%，推動每股 TNAV 增加 7 便士。

I won't dwell on this slide, but we continue to maintain a well-capitalized and liquid balance sheet with diverse sources of funding and a significant excess of deposits over loans.

我不會詳細討論這張投影片，但我們將繼續保持資本充足、流動性強的資產負債表，資金來源多樣化，存款遠遠超過貸款。

In summary, we are focused on disciplined execution. This quarter is the first step in delivering the targets we laid out in February and which we are reiterating today.

總而言之，我們注重紀律執行。本季是實現我們在 2 月制定的目標的第一步，我們今天重申了這些目標。

Thank you for listening. Moving now to Q&A. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的聆聽。現在進入問答環節。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Joseph Dickerson from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Joseph Dickerson。

I just had a question on the -- a couple of questions on the U.K. business and then the U.S. business. Just in terms of the U.K. balance sheet versus the NII performance, and I note that the NIM, which I'm glad we're not talking about as much anymore, was up 2 bps. And it looks like separately, the current account mix shift is starting to settle now with GBP 59 billion of current account balances versus GBP 60 billion last quarter. So do you think that we have kind of arrested the mix away from current accounts?

我剛才有一個關於英國業務和美國業務的幾個問題。就英國資產負債表與 NII 表現而言，我注意到 NIM 上升了 2 個基點，我很高興我們不再談論那麼多。單獨看來，經常帳結構的轉變現在已經開始解決，經常帳餘額為 590 億英鎊，而上季為 600 億英鎊。那麼您是否認為我們已經從經常帳戶中阻止了這種混合？

I mean, clearly, the Bank of England data shows some flow into noninterest-bearing accounts, at least for the first 2 months of the year. So just wondering what the outlook there is because it seems like that you can easily deliver on your target for this year on the NII guide there. So any comment around those moving parts would be helpful.

我的意思是，英格蘭銀行的數據顯然顯示出一些資金流入無息帳戶，至少在今年前兩個月是如此。所以只是想知道前景如何，因為看起來您可以輕鬆實現 NII 指南上今年的目標。因此，任何有關這些活動部件的評論都會有所幫助。

And then in the U.S., I guess -- how do we get the trajectory on the credit loss number? I mean, how should we think about that from the 610 basis points in Q1 to 400 basis points by 2026, given that, I suppose, unemployment could deteriorate in the U.S. or what have you. But clearly, part of the mix is also going to be coming from the GAAP portfolio. So I'm just wondering what's the confidence in the moving parts to go from 610 to around -- to circa 400 basis points.

然後在美國，我想──我們如何獲得信用損失數字的軌跡？我的意思是，考慮到美國或其他國家的失業率可能會惡化，我們應該如何看待從第一季的 610 個基點到 2026 年的 400 個基點。但顯然，其中一部分也將來自 GAAP 投資組合。所以我只是想知道從 610 到大約 400 個基點的移動部分的信心是多少。

And on the U.S., could you also just confirm that the fee -- late fee matter is embedded -- already reflected within the guidance that you've given for that unit at the update in February.

在美國，您是否也可以確認該費用（包含滯納金問題）已反映在您在二月更新時為該單位提供的指導中。

Joe, thanks for the questions. I think just on the U.K. question, I think it's worth just reflecting on Slide 16, where we've shown you the balance sheet progression as a deposit matter. And I think you're right, we are seeing some stabilization in underlying deposits. And the way I read that is partly through the current account movement, but it's also -- whilst you continue to see some movement towards time deposits, that rate of change is definitely slowed down.

喬，謝謝你的提問。我認為就英國問題而言，我認為值得在投影片 16 上進行反思，我們在其中向您展示了作為存款事項的資產負債表進展。我認為你是對的，我們看到基礎存款有所穩定。我的解讀方式部分是透過經常帳戶的變動，但同時你繼續看到一些定期存款的變動，但變化率肯定會放緩。

And what we see in Q1 is a mixture of those deposit trends continuing, but at a slower pace and what I would describe as normal seasonality. So in Q1, people pay the tax bills, and they also sort of pay off credit card bills, et cetera. And you also see that a little bit in business banking. So I think it's as we expected to see. From here on in, I think now in Q2 and beyond, you get almost beyond the (inaudible) season, which can cause a bit of noise in the U.K. I think we'd expect those deposit trends to continue. So that's how I'd characterize those changes in the U.K.

我們在第一季看到的是這些存款趨勢的混合體，這些趨勢仍在繼續，但速度較慢，我將其描述為正常的季節性。因此，在第一季度，人們繳納稅款，他們還清信用卡帳單等等。您在商業銀行業務中也看到了一點。所以我認為這正如我們所期望的那樣。從現在開始，我認為在第二季度及以後，您幾乎已經過了（聽不清楚）季節，這可能會在英國引起一些噪音，我認為我們預計這些存款趨勢將繼續下去。這就是我對英國這些變化的描述。

As far as the U.S. is concerned, I think worth looking at Page 13, which is a replication of the slide that we gave you at the year-end. And what that shows is we expected write-offs to increase in the U.S. because delinquencies had been rising through last year, in line with the industry, and as the standard required us to, we reserve in advance.

就美國而言，我認為值得一看第 13 頁，它是我們在年底給您的幻燈片的複製品。這表明我們預計美國的沖銷將會增加，因為去年拖欠率一直在上升，與行業一致，並且按照標準要求，我們提前儲備。

So what you see in Q1 is really a switch around in the balance between reserving and actual write-offs. The write-offs have gone up, and reserving is now starting to settle back down. So for 2024 we expect higher impairment charges in the first half, lower in the second half and for the year, as a whole, to be lower than 2023.

因此，您在第一季看到的實際上是準備金和實際沖銷之間平衡的轉變。沖銷額增加，準備金現在開始回落。因此，對於 2024 年，我們預計上半年減損費用較高，下半年較低，全年整體將低於 2023 年。

And in terms of the longer term trends in this business, I mean you're right in terms of one of our objectives is to have a higher proportion of retail. But actually, our GAAP portfolio is very high quality. And the FICO balance that we've got in the book now is no different to what it was pre-GAAP. And as we grow that retail proportion in time, what we also see is a roll-off of the legacy slightly lower FICO portfolio such that the mix remains broadly similar to what it is today. So that's why we're guiding to this longer-term position of 400, and that's what gives us confidence.

就該業務的長期趨勢而言，我的意思是，我們的目標之一是擁有更高的零售比例，你是對的。但實際上，我們的 GAAP 產品組合品質非常高。我們現在帳面上的 FICO 餘額與採用 GAAP 之前的情況沒有什麼不同。隨著我們及時增加零售比例，我們也看到傳統的 FICO 投資組合略低，因此組合與今天的組合大致相似。這就是為什麼我們將長期目標定位在 400 點，這給了我們信心。

And just to confirm on your final piece, yes, we did include late fees. The late fee matter in our RoTE projections. We'd expect those to come in -- I mean, obviously, planning for May. They may be slightly later than that. We have offsets to come in the plan, but they slightly lag the imposition of the legislation. So you'll see a bit of a gap there, but that's what we expected.

只是為了確認您的最後一件作品，是的，我們確實包含了滯納金。滯納金在我們的 RoTE 預測中很重要。我們預計這些會進來——我的意思是，顯然是在五月進行計劃。他們可能會比這稍晚。我們的計劃中有一些補償措施，但它們稍微落後於立法的實施。所以你會看到那裡有一點差距，但這正是我們所期望的。

The next question comes from Benjamin Toms from RBC.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的本傑明·湯姆斯。

The first on the Investment Bank, please. You noted this morning there's more to do in European rates within the IB. Can you just give us some more color on what's left to do there? Is that investments in people or infrastructure or both? And when do you think we'll start seeing some progress for that product line?

第一個是關於投資銀行的。您今天早上指出，IB 內的歐洲利率還有更多工作要做。您能給我們更多關於剩下要做的事情的資訊嗎？這是對人員或基礎建設的投資，還是兩者兼具？您認為我們什麼時候會開始看到該產品線取得一些進展？

And then secondly, your -- sorry, NIM was up in the quarter by 2 basis points, but NII was slightly down by about 2%. Could you give us some guidance whether you think that we've now seen a trough in your NII?

其次，抱歉，NIM 在本季上升了 2 個基點，但 NII 略有下降約 2%。您是否認為我們現在已經看到您的 NII 出現低谷，能否給我們一些指導？

Yes, thanks. So let me begin and then Anna will take up the NII point. So in European rates, it's people and a little bit of dealing with intensifying of the client penetration. So I would expect -- so hiring people. We've already got today a very strong presence in the primary markets in Europe, in DCM and especially with government bond trading. And what we are doing is supplementing the skills that we have on the trading desk. And I would expect, not in months, but in quarters, to start seeing some of the improvement. Of course, it's a function of market environment as well, but it's mostly an investment to people.

對了謝謝。那麼讓我開始吧，然後安娜將討論 NII 點。因此，在歐洲的利率中，關鍵在於人員和處理客戶滲透率的加強。所以我預計——所以要招募人員。今天，我們已經在歐洲主要市場、DCM，特別是政府債券交易中佔據了非常強大的地位。我們正在做的是補充我們在交易台上擁有的技能。我預計，不是幾個月，而是幾個季度，就會開始看到一些改善。當然，這也是市場環境的作用，但主要是對人的投資。

Thanks, Ben. On your second question, I think it's worth looking at the new disclosure that we've given you around the NII movement in the U.K., which is on the bottom right of Page 15. And what we're seeing here in the quarter is more stability in margin than we saw throughout 2023. And you can see there that there's still some product margin dilution, which is coming from mortgages and it's also coming from those deposit changes, but largely offset by that continued strength in the structural hedge.

謝謝，本。關於你的第二個問題，我認為值得一看的是我們向你提供的有關英國 NII 運動的新披露信息，該信息位於第 15 頁的右下角。率比我們在2023 年全年看到的更加穩定。 。

And what's really going on here is balance sheet movement. So the reduction in deposits that I talked about before, also just more of a broader market-wide movement in terms of reduction in mortgage balances, so we continue to guide to 6.1 -- or circa GBP 6.1 billion for the full year. Still confident in that guidance.

這裡真正發生的是資產負債表的變動。因此，我之前談到的存款減少，也只是抵押貸款餘額減少方面更廣泛的市場範圍的變化，因此我們繼續將全年指導目標定為 6.1，即約 61 億英鎊。對這項指導仍然充滿信心。

And I'd just reflect perhaps on the NII across the group more broadly, which was stable year-on-year. And we do think, not taking into account -- not just the U.K., but the corporate bank, Private Banking and Wealth as well and indeed, our U.S. Cards business. So we're pleased with that, as a result. And that's a good position from which we can grow. The only other thing I would call out is, of course, that circa GBP 6.1 billion is ex-Tesco, and we now expect Tesco to complete in the fourth quarter of this year.

我可能只想更廣泛地思考整個集團的國家資訊基礎設施，它比去年同期穩定。我們確實認為，不僅考慮到英國，還考慮到企業銀行、私人銀行和財富，實際上還有我們的美國信用卡業務。因此，我們對此感到滿意。這是我們可以成長的好位置。當然，我唯一要指出的另一件事是，大約 61 億英鎊是前樂購 (Tesco) 的資金，我們現在預計樂購 (Tesco) 將在今年第四季完成。

The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

A couple of questions. One on the IB and another one -- a follow-up on provisions in the U.S. On the IB, there's a few moving parts that you've called out. But I also note your U.S. competitors, they've been -- there's been a bit of a mix sort of messages on the pipeline. So I just wanted to pick your thoughts on the seasonality you see during this year considering the one-offs we've seen in the quarter, and what seasonality could we expect in markets?

有幾個問題。一個是關於 IB 的，另一個是關於美國條款的後續。但我也注意到你們的美國競爭對手，他們一直在醞釀一些混合的資訊。因此，我只想談談您對今年季節性的看法，考慮到我們在本季看到的一次性情況，以及我們對市場的預期會出現什麼季節性？

And also in DCM, maybe the number is obviously up, but according to Dealogic and other (inaudible), it could have been up more. Or do -- how do you see the pipeline there? Because, as I said, some of your peers were a bit more cautious.

而且在 DCM 中，也許這個數字明顯上升了，但根據 Dealogic 和其他人（聽不清楚）的說法，這個數字本來可以上升更多。或者——你如何看待那裡的管道？因為，正如我所說，你們的一些同行更加謹慎。

On the U.S. cards, noted your comments, Anna, around the reserve build. But in your modeling, you obviously -- the 400 basis points -- to trend towards 400 basis points. Based on that, when would you expect the delinquencies to peak? Because conscious that typically, the seasonality provisions is the provisions tend to be higher in the second half. So just looking for data points that we could look out for to confirm that 400 basis points in particular, the peak and delinquencies?

在美國卡上，安娜，注意到你對儲備建設的評論。但在你的模型中，你顯然 - 400 個基點 - 趨向於 400 個基點。基於此，您預期拖欠率何時會達到高峰？因為意識到通常情況下，季節性撥備是下半年的撥備往往會更高。那麼，只是尋找我們可以尋找的數據點來確認 400 個基點，特別是峰值和拖欠情況？

Alvaro, it's Venkat. So let me begin on the first one on the IB. So on seasonality, I think in markets with one provider, which I'll say in a second, you should expect the normal seasonality that you see, which is a little quieter in the summer and then picking up in the fourth quarter. And so far, the second quarter is behaving like second quarters generally do in seasonality senses.

阿爾瓦羅，我是文卡特。讓我從 IB 的第一個開始。因此，就季節性而言，我認為在只有一家提供者的市場中（我稍後會說），您應該預料到您所看到的正常季節性，即夏季稍微安靜一些，然後在第四季度有所回升。到目前為止，第二季度的表現與季節性意義上的一般情況相同。

The thought on DCM and the proviso I will make on overall fixed income markets is there is an assumption there about when volatility comes. And obviously, that's very, very hard to predict. We've seen, since the 1st of November, a round trip of about 90 basis points in 10-year gilts and approximately the same, slightly less than 10-year treasuries. And so the question really is based on rate expectations, do they stabilize at this level or is there further volatility? I don't know the answer.

關於 DCM 的想法以及我對整個固定收益市場的附帶條件是，存在一個關於波動何時到來的假設。顯然，這非常非常難以預測。自 11 月 1 日以來，我們看到 10 年期公債的往返幅度約為 90 個基點，而 10 年期公債的往返幅度大致相同，略低於 10 年期公債。因此，問題實際上是基於利率預期，它們是穩定在這個水平還是會出現進一步的波動？我不知道答案。

And -- but in part, that answer affects the next question, which is on DCM. And I think there are two parts to this. One is, obviously, rates are much higher than people might have thought 6 months ago. But at the same time, or at the same -- 3 months ago. At the same time, spreads are much tighter. And so I think the tightness of spreads is going to be one important factor in the thinking of issuers on actually what they bring out to the market. So I'm expecting that you will continue to see people tempted by the lower spreads.

而且——但在某種程度上，這個答案會影響下一個關於 DCM 的問題。我認為這有兩個部分。一是，利率顯然比人們 6 個月前想像的要高得多。但同時，或者同時──三個月前。同時，利差也更窄。因此，我認為利差的縮小將成為發行人思考他們向市場推出的產品的重要因素。因此，我預計您將繼續看到人們受到較低利差的誘惑。

Okay, Alvaro, I'll take the second question. So in terms of modeling, what we expect is for U.S. unemployment to go up from its current position. And you can see that in our IFRS 9 assumptions. What that would tell us is that we should continue to see some increase in delinquency. That said, a couple of things, our expectations of that peak of unemployment have actually come down quarter-on-quarter. So we've seen an improvement in the macroeconomic outlook, we believe, for the U.S. And actually, that economy remains robust. So whilst we expect to see a continuation of delinquency, we are content that we have very robust coverage. You'll see that our coverage is now over 11% on an IFRS 9 basis. It's 8.5% on a CECL basis, so we're well covered.

好的，阿爾瓦羅，我來回答第二個問題。因此，就模型而言，我們預計美國失業率將從目前的水平上升。您可以在我們的 IFRS 9 假設中看到這一點。這告訴我們，拖欠率應該會繼續增加。也就是說，有幾件事，我們對失業率高峰的預期實際上已經逐季下降。因此，我們認為美國的宏觀經濟前景有所改善，實際上，經濟仍然強勁。因此，雖然我們預計拖欠率會持續存在，但我們對擁有非常強大的覆蓋範圍感到滿意。您會發現，以 IFRS 9 計算，我們的覆蓋率現已超過 11%。以 CECL 計算，該利率為 8.5%，因此我們已得到充分保障。

Where we had concerns, probably, at the lower end of the FICO scores, we've taken action on credit lines. So we feel like we're preparing well both in terms of provisioning and indeed, our credit actions, if you like. But it is progressing as we expected to and given the IFRS 9 forecast we have for unemployment.

在我們可能擔心 FICO 分數較低的地方，我們已經對信貸額度採取了行動。因此，我們覺得我們在撥備和信貸行動方面都做好了準備，如果你願意的話。但根據 IFRS 9 對失業的預測，情況正按照我們的預期進展。

Our next question comes from Rohith Chandra-Rajan from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rohith Chandra-Rajan。

I had a couple on revenues, please. The first one's just coming to the Investment Bank, where revenue performance is well below peers even after adjusting for the one-offs that you flagged, and that's particularly the case for FICC and fees and even equities is off quite a low Q1 2023 base. So thanks very much for the color that you've given us in terms of the product narrative.

我有一些收入，請。第一個剛進入投資銀行，即使在調整了您標記的一次性費用後，其收入表現也遠低於同行，尤其是FICC 和費用，甚至股票的情況尤其如此，2023 年第一季度的基數相當低。非常感謝您在產品敘述上為我們提供的色彩。

I was just wondering, because you target a lot of market share gain and quite a lot of improvement in return on risk-weighted assets. I'm just wondering when we should think about that from a timing perspective? Is that a similar sort of time frame to what Venkat was talking about in terms of the euro rate benefits coming through. So thinking about seeing those market share and RWA benefits over the coming quarters, is that realistic for the IB as a whole?

我只是想知道，因為您的目標是獲得大量市場份額，並大幅提高風險加權資產的回報率。我只是想知道我們什麼時候應該從時間角度來考慮這個問題？這是否與 Venkat 所說的歐元利率優惠的時間框架類似？因此，考慮在未來幾季看到這些市場份額和 RWA 收益，這對於整個 IB 來說是否現實？

And then the second one is just back on Barclays UK actually. Anna talked about mortgage flows being in line with 2022. I just wanted to clarify what you were talking about there? Is that sort of gross lending? Or is it approval because I think approvals particularly are up year-on-year significantly.

然後第二個實際上剛剛回到巴克萊英國。安娜談到抵押貸款流量與 2022 年保持一致。這是一種毛貸款嗎？或者是批准，因為我認為批准數量比去年同期顯著增加。

Okay. Thanks, Rohith. I'll take both of those questions. I'll start with the firsts, then Venkat might wish to add. So you're right. There are two particular quirks, if you like, in both equity and our FICC numbers. In equities, there's a one-off in the current quarter, which we've called out, actually, excluding that, the business is up 11% in dollar terms, which we actually believe compares very favorably to our U.S. peers and demonstrates that we're making progress, and we called our cash, and we also called out prime, and we called our equity derivatives, which, of course, is one of our FICC areas.

好的。謝謝，羅希斯。我將回答這兩個問題。我將從第一個開始，然後 Venkat 可能希望補充。所以你是對的。如果你願意的話，在股本和我們的 FICC 數據中都有兩個特別的怪癖。在股票方面，本季有一個一次性的情況，我們已經指出，實際上，排除這一點，以美元計算，該業務增長了11%，我們實際上認為，與我們的美國同行相比，這非常有利，這表明我們我們正在取得進展，我們稱之為現金，我們也稱之為優質產品，我們稱之為股票衍生品，這當然是我們的 FICC 領域之一。

FICC, on the other hand, you might recall this time last year, we were talking about some inflation-specific income in there, that does color the comparisons a little bit. But even after we split that out, it's down 14% in dollar terms, which we don't believe lines up too favorably against our U.S. peers. There's a few things going on in there. We are pleased with the progress in securitized products. And in previous quarters, we would have said we're small in that business, we still are. But we've been able to monetize it much more effectively because of the investments that we've put in. And then across banking, I mean Venkat's covered that, but it feels like quarter-on-quarter progress.

FICC，另一方面，你可能還記得去年的這個時候，我們談論了一些與通貨膨脹相關的收入，這確實為比較帶來了一點色彩。但即使我們將其分開，以美元計算，它仍下跌了 14%，我們認為這與我們的美國同行相比並不太有利。那裡發生了一些事情。我們對證券化產品的進展感到高興。在前幾個季度，我們會說我們在該業務中規模很小，現在仍然如此。但由於我們投入的投資，我們能夠更有效地將其貨幣化。

When we stand back from it all, this is 1 quarter in a 12-quarter plan. And we do believe that we have the right plans to grow this business, but we're not going to see the results after 1 quarter. So I won't give you a time frame, but hopefully, we'll be able to show you regularly how we are making progress. That's one of the reasons why we set up the reporting that we have so that we're not seeing a huge change in that revenue over RWA number yet, but it's important to us, and therefore, we're just showing you that.

當我們拋開這一切時，這只是 12 季度計劃中的 1 個季度。我們確實相信我們有正確的計劃來發展這項業務，但我們不會在一季後看到結果。因此，我不會給您一個時間框架，但希望我們能夠定期向您展示我們如何取得進展。這就是我們建立現有報告的原因之一，這樣我們就不會看到收入相對於 RWA 數字的巨大變化，但這對我們很重要，因此，我們只是向您展示這一點。

And on BUK, you're right to call me out on this. So let me be very specific. I was talking about gross flows. Apps are up 22% for the market in the first quarter. And interestingly, what we're seeing is the purchase market coming back in the U.K., which is really good after '23 being very much remortgage dominated. So that's really good. We think that's helpful for us, although it will take time for that to flow into the balance sheet. One thing I would call out is we feel like we've taken share in higher loan-to-value mortgages, which, again, was one of the areas we were seeking to do. But just to be really clear, this is going to take time to flow into the balance sheet.

在 BUK 上，你對我的指責是正確的。讓我非常具體地說。我說的是總流量。第一季應用程式市場成長了 22%。有趣的是，我們看到英國的購屋市場正在回歸，這在 23 年轉房後確實非常好。所以這真的很好。我們認為這對我們有幫助，儘管這需要時間才能流入資產負債表。我要指出的一件事是，我們覺得我們已經在貸款價值比較高的抵押貸款中佔據了份額，這也是我們尋求做的領域之一。但需要明確的是，這需要時間才能流入資產負債表。

But thank you for the question. Can we have the next question, please?

但謝謝你的提問。我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

The next question comes from Edward Firth from Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的愛德華‧佛斯 (Edward Firth)。

Can I just ask you about capital? And firstly, could you just update us if there is any update on the U.S. cards business. I think it's Q3, I think we had GBP 16 billion. I'm not sure if that was my number or your number, but additional risk-weighted assets, which I guess if you put on a pro forma now, that takes you really down to 13 or a little bit below. So I guess the first question is, is that still the right sort of number?

我可以問你關於資本的問題嗎？首先，如果美國信用卡業務有任何最新消息，請告訴我們。我認為現在是第三季度，我們有 160 億英鎊。我不確定這是我的數字還是你的數字，但額外的風險加權資產，我想如果你現在進行預估，這會讓你真正下降到 13 或稍微低一點。所以我想第一個問題是，這仍然是正確的數字嗎？

And then the second question is, I sort of thought that the German consumer disposal would sort of pay for some of that, if that makes sense. And therefore, you'd still have plenty of capital in the second half. But it sounds like that's not going to be so likely now. So am I right about that? Should we really be thinking that Q3 is going to be sort of low point for capital really? And how should we think about that in terms of [capital distribution] in the second half?

第二個問題是，我認為德國消費者的處置會為此付出一些代價，如果這是有道理的話。因此，下半年你仍然有充足的資金。但現在看來這種可能性不大了。那我的說法正確嗎？我們真的應該認為第三季真的會是資本的低點嗎？那麼對於下半年的【資本分配】我們該如何思考呢？

Thanks, Ed. There's a lot in that, but let me try and keep up. So no change to our guidance around the U.S. cards regulatory model changes. So still expecting 16, still expecting that in the third quarter. So in terms of the numbers that you read out, I understand -- so I understand the math behind it and the pro forma. The thing I would say is there are obviously a lot of moving parts here. There's the organic generation of capital, which you can see in the first quarter has been strong. There's some seasonality in RWA, which will obviously move as the year goes on. And typically, we would expect Q1 to be in the middle of the range or maybe even slightly below the middle of our range because of that.

謝謝，艾德。其中有很多內容，但讓我試著跟上。因此，我們對美國銀行卡監管模式變化的指導沒有改變。所以仍然期待 16，仍然期待第三季。所以就你讀出的數字而言，我理解——所以我理解它背後的數學和準備。我想說的是，這裡顯然有很多活動部件。資本的有機生成，你可以在第一季看到它很強勁。 RWA 有一定的季節性，隨著時間的推移，它顯然會改變。通常，我們預期 Q1 會位於該範圍的中間，甚至可能略低於我們範圍的中間。

You've then got inorganic actions. And I'm not going to comment on the specific timing of the German card disposal, but I would say it continues to progress. And then you've got business mitigants. So I'd call out the Blackstone transaction, and you can imagine that we continue to work hard on RWA efficiency across the group more broadly.

然後你就得到了無機動作。我不會評論德國卡處理的具體時間，但我想說它仍在繼續進展。然後你就有了商業緩解措施。因此，我會提到 Blackstone 交易，您可以想像我們將繼續努力提高整個集團的 RWA 效率。

So in terms of sort of capital generation and distribution, our plans remain as they were on the 20th of February in terms of both the priority, priority first reg, second shareholder distribution, third investment in the business. And we are still planning to distribute greater than GBP 10 billion across '24 to '26, and we're still expecting to deliver broadly what we did last year, so around GBP 3 billion in the current year. So capital-wise, we're on track to where we expect it to be.

因此，在資本產生和分配方面，我們的計劃與 2 月 20 日的計劃保持一致，包括優先權、優先第一監管、第二次股東分配、第三次業務投資。我們仍計劃在 24 年至 26 年期間分配超過 100 億英鎊，並且我們仍期望大體實現去年所做的那樣，因此今年分配約 30 億英鎊。因此，從資本角度來看，我們正在朝著我們預期的方向發展。

The next question comes from Guy Stebbings from BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的蓋伊·斯特賓斯。

One on Barclays UK and then one on U.S. cards. Yes, thanks for the new disclosure on Slide 15 on the NII bridge as it were. Just looking forward, some of dynamics look quite encouraging, but still the guidance implies a slight headwind versus the Q1 run rate on NII. So I guess I would have thought the hedge and the product margin dynamics are pretty neutral from sort of Q2, perhaps even slight benefit beyond that as we think about the hedge benefit and support from higher LTV lending, perhaps outweighing some of the headwinds. So I'm just trying to understand what is the headwind from it? Is the deposit volume component still being a drag even post the season effects that you called out in Q1?

一張是英國巴克萊銀行卡，一張是美國卡。是的，感謝幻燈片 15 上 NII 橋的新披露。展望未來，一些動態看起來相當令人鼓舞，但該指導仍然意味著與 NII 第一季的運行率相比存在輕微的阻力。因此，我想我認為從第二季度開始，對沖和產品利潤率動態就相當中性，甚至可能會帶來輕微的好處，因為我們考慮到對沖收益和更高貸款價值貸款的支持，也許會超過一些不利因素。所以我只是想了解它的阻力是什麼？即使在您在第一季指出的季節影響之後，存款量部分仍然是一個拖累嗎？

And then on U.S. Cards, you highlighted the increase in quarter positive percentage balance. I just wondered how much of that is a sort of dollar increase or how much has that been impacted by the fall in lending balances and perhaps a reduction in other funding? And sort of how are you going to grow the growth -- drive that growth in core deposits as we look forward? Is it really about the changes in providing deposit proposition the same at or some of the lending? Or is it pricing?

然後，在美國信用卡上，您強調了季度正百分比餘額的成長。我只是想知道其中有多少是美元上漲，或者貸款餘額下降以及其他資金減少的影響有多大？正如我們所期望的那樣，您將如何促進核心存款的成長？這真的是關於提供與貸款或部分貸款相同的存款主張的變化嗎？或者說是定價？

If I can just squeeze in a follow-up on U.S. cards. You talked about mitigating the late payment fees. I just wondered how much of what's embedded in the plan is sort of the market reacting to that versus what's more in your control?

如果我能擠進美國卡的後續行動就好了。您談到了減輕滯納金。我只是想知道該計劃中包含的內容有多少是市場對此的反應，而不是您可以控制的內容？

Okay. Thank you, Guy. So just reflecting back on Slide 15. I mean I'd just reiterate what I said before, that really '24, we see about a bit more stabilization in the margin because of the factors you call out and the strength of that hedge. And then also, you've got continued deposit migration. So even though it's slowing down, we still expect it to be there. And in terms of the mortgage market, while we're seeing encouraging signs in terms of the market, it is going to take a while for that to start flowing into the balance sheet. So you see a balance sheet that contracts before it starts to expand, and that's really what underpins our circa GBP 6.1 billion. So it's playing out in the first quarter sort of as we expected it might.

好的。謝謝你，蓋伊。因此，回顧一下投影片 15。此外，您也可以繼續進行存款遷移。因此，即使它正在放緩，我們仍然預計它會存在。就抵押貸款市場而言，雖然我們看到市場出現令人鼓舞的跡象，但需要一段時間才能開始流入資產負債表。因此，您會看到資產負債表在開始擴張之前先收縮，而這正是我們約 61 億英鎊資產的真正支撐。因此，第一季的情況正如我們預期的那樣。

In terms of your question 2a on dollar deposits, it is exactly what you say. So we're expecting really, this is a product led and actually, the way we go to market with those dollar deposits reaching more directly to consumers. And again, this is the first quarter in a 12-quarter plan. It's going to move around a little bit. And actually, I've been looking for longer-term trends there really, but it's product propositionally driven.

至於你關於美元存款的問題2a，這正是你所說的。因此，我們確實期望，這是一種以產品為主導的產品，實際上，我們進入市場的方式是將這些美元存款更直接地接觸到消費者。再說一遍，這是 12 季計劃中的第一季。它會稍微移動一點。事實上，我一直在尋找長期趨勢，但它是產品命題驅動的。

And then finally, just in terms of the market on late fees, I think we do see some price changes coming through, which is sort of what we anticipated and we would expect to participate in that, which is why I said late fee legislation happens first, the pricing changes will drift through over time.

最後，就滯納金市場而言，我認為我們確實看到了一些價格變化，這是我們所預期的，我們希望參與其中，這就是為什麼我說滯納金立法發生首先，定價變化會隨著時間的推移而變化。

The only other thing I would say is, of course, given the nature of our business, we are able to share the impact of those late fees with some of our partners. So you might expect the impact for us to be slightly less than it would be more market-wide. But overall, we considered all of that and included it in the RoTE sort of pathways and guidance that we gave you on the 20th of February. So no change.

當然，我要說的另一件事是，考慮到我們業務的性質，我們能夠與我們的一些合作夥伴分擔這些滯納金的影響。因此，您可能會預期對我們的影響會略小於對整個市場的影響。但總的來說，我們考慮了所有這些，並將其納入我們 2 月 20 日向您提供的 RoTE 路徑和指南中。所以沒有改變。

The next question comes from Chris Cant from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Chris Cant。

One very quick one to follow up on the last question, please. Could you just give us some quantification of the expected annualized impact around the late fee changes for your U.S. consumer business? I think it would be helpful to understand what the sort of initial impact you're expecting there even if you expect some industry-wide and idiosyncratic mitigations over time. That would be the first question, please.

請快速跟進最後一個問題。您能否量化一下滯納金變化對您的美國消費者業務的預期年度影響？我認為，即使您預計隨著時間的推移會出現一些全行業範圍內的特殊緩解措施，了解您所期望的初始影響也會有所幫助。這是第一個問題。

Secondly, on NII, just conscious that you do have this GBP 120 million Bank of England levy. You're indicating that there's a GBP 70 million offsetting revenues this year, I think, you said GBP 50 million net impact year 1. And I understand that's going to go through the NII line. And when I think about what swap markets have done since your guidance would have been struck at the full year, I guess it's a bit more supportive, slightly higher average base rate for this year, slightly higher average swaps rates. You then have GBP 70-or-so million of benefit to come through relative to plan from this Bank of England funding adjustment. Why hasn't the NII guidance being nudged higher? Is that just prudence? Or is there something else going on in there, which is maybe a little bit worse than expected?

其次，關於 NII，只要意識到您確實有 1.2 億英鎊的英格蘭銀行徵稅即可。我認為，您表示今年有 7000 萬英鎊抵消收入，您說第一年淨影響為 5000 萬英鎊。當我考慮自從您的全年指導方針出台以來掉期市場的表現時，我想這是更有支持性的，今年的平均基本利率略高，平均掉期利率略高。然後，相對於英格蘭銀行融資調整的計劃，您將獲得約 7000 萬英鎊的收益。為什麼國家資訊基礎建設指引沒有被調高？這只是謹慎嗎？還是其中發生了其他事情，可能比預期的還要糟糕？

And I guess related to that, what is your guidance around NII sensitivity to base rate at this point, please? You haven't given us anything in the slides for quite some time. And given the relative size of your hedge versus peers and some of the commentary you gave at 2Q results last year, I do wonder actually whether in the very short term base rate, perhaps not coming down as much as perhaps slightly negative to the near-term NII trends?

我想與此相關的是，目前您對 NII 對基本利率敏感度的指導是什麼？您已經很長一段時間沒有在幻燈片中向我們提供任何內容了。考慮到你的對沖相對於同行的相對規模以及你對去年第二季度業績的一些評論，我確實想知道，在非常短期內，基本利率是否會下降到近乎輕微負值的程度？

Okay. Thanks, Chris. I will take those. So on the first one, we haven't quantified it publicly. However, on the 20th of February, we did include it in the flight path. You can see that it's actually a net negative over the period. So you can see it being a drag on the RoTE, but it is part of that. But I'd just reiterate, I would expect it to be slightly less than other market participants some are calling out just because of the impact from the partners.

好的。謝謝，克里斯。我會接受那些。所以第一個，我們還沒有公開量化。然而，2月20日，我們確實將其納入了飛行路線。您可以看到，這段時間實際上是淨負值。所以你可以看到它對 RoTE 的拖累，但它是其中的一部分。但我想重申一下，由於合作夥伴的影響，我預計這一數字將略低於其他市場參與者的要求。

So in terms of NII more generally, we continue to guide to circa GBP 10.7 billion for the full business excluding the IB and Head Office and to circa GBP 6.1 billion for BUK. And you're right, there have been some movements in swap markets. But of course, they do move around a great deal. And what we did on the 20th of February was try and underpin our targets with prudent macroeconomic assumptions. Of course, we monitor those very regularly. We consider the impacts on the business, but we're not going to mark-to-market those targets on a quarterly basis.

因此，就更廣泛的 NII 而言，我們繼續指導不包括 IB 和總部的全部業務約為 107 億英鎊，BUK 約為 61 億英鎊。你是對的，掉期市場出現了一些變動。但當然，他們確實經常四處走動。我們在 2 月 20 日所做的就是嘗試用審慎的宏觀經濟假設來支撐我們的目標。當然，我們會定期監控這些情況。我們考慮對業務的影響，但我們不會按季度以市價計算這些目標。

Just mathematically, you're right, we would expect some offsetting income from that Bank of England levy. I think we've called that out, around GBP 75 million. But 1 quarter end, we're not going to adjust the targets that we've given you.

從數學上講，你是對的，我們預期英格蘭銀行徵稅會帶來一些抵銷收入。我想我們已經宣布了這一點，大約 7500 萬英鎊。但第一季末，我們不會調整給你們的目標。

In terms of your specifics around the sensitivity, I would say, given the scale of our hedge, we are and always have been less sensitive to immediate changes in base rates. That remains true. The -- any sort of near-term change in rates is less important to us than just a mechanistic rolling of that hedged quarter in, quarter out. And there's nothing that I would call out as a negative in terms of rates being higher for longer. Of course, you might expect some benefit in liabilities, but there might be some offsetting matters in terms of asset formation, for example. So that's why at this stage, we're really happy with the GBP 6.1 billion and the GBP 10.7 billion.

就敏感度的具體情況而言，我想說，考慮到我們對沖的規模，我們對基本利率的立即變化一直不太敏感。這仍然是事實。對我們來說，任何形式的近期利率變化都不如對沖季度的機械滾動更重要。就利率持續較高的時間而言，我不會說有什麼負面影響。當然，您可能期望在負債方面獲得一些好處，但例如在資產形成方面可能會出現一些抵銷問題。這就是為什麼現階段我們對 61 億英鎊和 107 億英鎊感到非常滿意。

The next question comes from Robin Down from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Robin Down。

Just two. Just to quickly follow up on Chris -- So just to confirm, the GBP 300 million reduction in NII within BUK, that was set before the BOE levy kind of changes? I'm guessing you're going to get probably about a GBP 50 million NII benefit within BUK. Just could you clear that up.

只有兩個。只是為了快速跟進克里斯 - 所以只是為了確認一下，BUK 內的 NII 減少了 3 億英鎊，這是在英國央行徵稅發生變化之前確定的嗎？我猜您將在 BUK 內獲得約 5000 萬英鎊的 NII 福利。你能澄清一下嗎？

Second question, a much broader question. Obviously, you've got an RoTE target for this year of greater than 10%. I think consensus is currently around 8.8%. And when I look at the numbers, it looks like you need about GBP 1 billion revenue growth based on your 2024 RoTE bridge. And that's just not something of consensus or my own forecast currently have factored in, I think consensus has about GBP 250 million of income growth. I guess a great disparity there must particularly be in the IB given you've given us fairly precise guidance on things like NII elsewhere. I'm just wondering if there's any kind of -- anything hard and I'll ask you to kind of point to and say, look, I think consensus is just wrong on this number when you look at our models. If there's any color there, that would be greatly appreciated.

第二個問題，一個更廣泛的問題。顯然，今年的 RoTE 目標超過 10%。我認為目前的共識約為 8.8%。當我查看這些數字時，根據 2024 年 RoTE 橋，您似乎需要約 10 億英鎊的收入成長。這並不是共識或我自己目前的預測所考慮的因素，我認為共識是收入成長約 2.5 億英鎊。我想，鑑於您在其他地方的 NII 等問題上給了我們相當精確的指導，所以 IB 方面一定存在很大的差異。我只是想知道是否有任何困難，我會要求你指出並說，看，當你查看我們的模型時，我認為對這個數字的共識是錯誤的。如果那裡有任何顏色，那將不勝感激。

Okay. Thanks, Robin. So on the first one, our circa GBP 6.1 billion for BUK was struck for the 20th of February, which was before these BOE changes. They just -- mathematically, that is true. But we are only in the first quarter, which is why I'd reiterate, we're happy with our progress thus far. In terms of your RoTE of greater than 10%, the 12.3% that we've delivered in the first quarter is exactly where we thought we would be. So -- and within that, the constituent parts are what I was looking for. So number one, real stability and income, particularly in NII and particularly in our financing businesses, they provide real balance to our income overall, the 63% of income in the quarter, and that's what we're focused on growing because it's a really good base for us to deploy the RWAs into the U.K. and to focus on those areas within the IB.

好的。謝謝，羅賓。因此，在第一筆交易中，我們在 2 月 20 日向 BUK 支付了大約 61 億英鎊，這是在英國央行發生這些變化之前。他們只是——從數學上來說，這是真的。但我們才剛剛進入第一季度，這就是為什麼我要重申，我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意。就超過 10% 的 RoTE 而言，我們在第一季交付的 12.3% 正是我們預期的水平。因此，其中的組成部分正是我所尋找的。因此，第一，真正的穩定性和收入，特別是在NII 方面，特別是在我們的融資業務中，它們為我們的整體收入（本季收入的63%）提供了真正的平衡，這就是我們重點關注的成長點，因為它確實是一個真正的成長點。

The second thing I was looking for was delivery of cost and efficiency. We said GBP 1 billion for the full year. We've delivered GBP 200 million of that in the first quarter. So we're on track there. Third thing was continued good credit conditions. And again, we've seen that. So good credit performance at 51 basis points, really at the bottom end of our sort of through-the-cycle range, which again gives us a good base to grow from.

我尋找的第二件事是成本和效率的交付。我們說全年 10 億英鎊。我們在第一季已交付了 2 億英鎊。所以我們已經步入正軌了。第三件事是持續良好的信用條件。我們再次看到了這一點。 51 個基點的信用表現非常好，確實處於我們整個週期範圍的底部，這再次為我們提供了良好的成長基礎。

And then finally, the capital position. So there's nothing different in our performance versus what we expected when we spoke to you on the 12th -- on the 20th of February. However, there probably are some changes in shape relative to last year. So last year, we had an income -- sorry, we had an impairment profile that was very back-end loaded. This year, it's pulled forward, driven very much by the U.S. positioning.

最後是資本狀況。因此，我們的表現與我們 2 月 12 日（2 月 20 日）與您交談時的預期沒有任何不同。不過，與去年相比，形狀可能會發生一些變化。所以去年，我們的收入——抱歉，我們的減損情況是後端負載很大的。今年，在美國定位的推動下，它向前推進了。

The second thing is we did see quite a sharp change in NII -- sorry, in NIM last year, driven by the deposit mechanics that really started to kick in, in the second and the third quarter. The third thing is we did see a drop-off last year driven by the cash flow hedge reserve and the way that was impacting the tangible equity of the group.

第二件事是，我們確實看到 NII 發生了相當大的變化——抱歉，去年的 NIM 發生了巨大的變化，這是由第二季和第三季真正開始發揮作用的存款機制推動的。第三件事是，我們去年確實看到了現金流量對沖儲備的下降以及對集團有形股本的影響。

And then finally, I'd also call out, in the current quarter, that Bank of England levy has a 70 basis points impact. Now we expect that to be not quite neutral, but nearly neutral over the year as a whole. So that is depressing the first quarter RoTE. Now of course, last year also, after a strong first quarter, we saw a dramatic force in IBCs, in particular, to a decade low year for the whole market. And we're seeing more positive signs this year. So I think it's quite a nuanced question. But overall, we still believe that we can hit greater than 10% for the year, and we're exactly where we thought we'd be at this point.

最後，我還要指出，在本季度，英格蘭銀行徵稅產生了 70 個基點的影響。現在我們預計這一情況不會完全中性，但全年總體上接近中性。因此，第一季的 RoTE 令人沮喪。當然，去年也是如此，在第一季表現強勁之後，我們看到 IBC 的巨大力量，特別是整個市場達到十年來的最低點。今年我們看到了更多正面的跡象。所以我認為這是一個非常微妙的問題。但總體而言，我們仍然相信今年的成長率可以超過 10%，而我們目前的預期也正是如此。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jonathan Pierce from Numis.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Numis 的 Jonathan Pierce。

A couple of questions from me, back on the hedge and then a broader question (inaudible) please. On the hedge, I think you probably pushed on about 1/4 of this hedge now since medium-term rates moved above 3%, yet the yield on it is still only 1.8%. And it sort of implies that the rest of the hedge, despite all the hedges earning closer to 1%. So I'm just trying to square that with a 1.5% maturity guidance -- yield guidance that you've given in the next few years. Is that just a prudent number you've thrown out there and actually the maturity yield on the hedges over the next few years is closer to 1% rather than 1.5%? Or is there actually a fairly decent tailwind expected into 2027 and '28 as well?

我先問幾個問題，然後再問一個更廣泛的問題（聽不清楚）。在對沖方面，我認為由於中期利率升至 3% 以上，您現在可能會推動該對沖的約 1/4，但其收益率仍僅為 1.8%。這在某種程度上意味著其餘的對沖，儘管所有對沖的收益都接近 1%。因此，我只是試圖將其與您在未來幾年給出的 1.5% 期限指導——收益率指導相結合。這是否只是您給出的一個謹慎的數字，實際上未來幾年對沖的到期收益率更接近 1%，而不是 1.5%？或者說，預計 2027 年和 28 年實際上還會有相當不錯的順風車嗎？

The second question is not entirely unconnected. When I look at 2026 consensus RoTE, and I rebase for GBP 30 billion revenue number rather than where consensus is in the mid-28s you're getting to your target. So I assume on that basis, you recognize the consensus TNAV numbers out end of '25 and into 2026.

第二個問題並非完全無關。當我查看 2026 年共識 RoTE 時，我會重新設定 300 億英鎊的收入數字，而不是共識是在 28 年代中期，你就達到了目標。因此，我假設在此基礎上，您認可 25 年底至 2026 年的共識 TNAV 數字。

And then there's a -- sorry, final question on this, maybe to Venkat. The LTIP targets is incredibly commendable, but you don't get paid out in full unless you hit the 14% RoTE in 2026. But I'm just wondering what's your thinking there? It looks extremely aggressive, given consensus doesn't even believe you'll make the 12%. So why did you put a 14% RoTE target into that latest LTIP?

然後還有一個——抱歉，最後一個問題，可能是問 Venkat 的。 LTIP 目標非常值得稱讚，但除非您在 2026 年達到 14% 的 RoTE，否則您不會獲得全額付款。它看起來非常激進，因為人們甚至不相信你能達到 12%。那麼，為什麼您在最新的 LTIP 中設定了 14% RoTE 目標呢？

Okay. Jonathan, thanks for the question. I think there are three. So let me deal with the first two, and then I'll pass the third one to Venkat. So on the hedge, no, it wasn't prudent. It's the actual number. So we do expect the average maturing yield to be 1.5%. We do expect GBP 170 billion to roll '24 to '26, inclusive. We haven't talked about the tailwinds for '27 and '28. We talked about the tailwind for '26, which we said, given the assumption that we gave you or the indicative number rather that we gave you of 3.5% swap rate, that would add GBP 2 billion or around GBP 2 billion of income by 2026 relative to '23.

好的。喬納森，謝謝你的提問。我認為有三個。因此，讓我處理前兩個問題，然後我將把第三個問題交給 Venkat。所以在對沖方面，不，這並不謹慎。這是實際數字。因此我們預期平均到期收益率為 1.5%。我們確實預計 24 至 26 年（含）將有 1,700 億英鎊。我們還沒有討論 27 年和 28 年的順風車。我們談到了 26 年的順風車，我們說，假設我們給你或指示性數字，而不是我們給你 3.5% 的掉期利率，到 2026 年這將增加 20 億英鎊或約 20 億英鎊的收入相對於'23。

And you can see the progress that we've made in the quarter. So for 2024 alone, when we were at the year-end, we locked in GBP 3.8 billion. Now we've locked in GBP 4 billion. And that compares to a total gross hedge income of GBP 3.6 billion last year. So there is a very powerful tailwind that comes from this hedge.

您可以看到我們在本季取得的進展。因此，僅在 2024 年，當我們年底時，我們就鎖定了 38 億英鎊。現在我們已經鎖定了 40 億英鎊。相比之下，去年的對沖總收入為 36 億英鎊。因此，這種對沖帶來了非常強大的順風。

To your second question, we do -- I won't specifically comment on the consensus numbers that far out, but we do expect an increase in the tailwind -- sorry, an increase in TNAV. We're seeing it grow as we expected, both because of the mechanics of the cash flow hedge reserve. And you might recall, we called that out specifically on the 20th of February. It was one of the moving parts as a headwind to RoTE, both in 2024 and beyond into 2026. So it's being driven by just the mechanics of the cash flow hedge reserve. It's being driven by AP accretion. And of course, it's being driven by the reduced share count over time. And that's really why we're seeing it move forward.

對於你的第二個問題，我們確實 - 我不會具體評論目前的共識數字，但我們確實預計順風會增加 - 抱歉，TNAV 會增加。我們看到它的成長符合我們的預期，這都是因為現金流對沖儲備的機制。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2 月 20 日特別指出了這一點。無論是在 2024 年還是到 2026 年，它都是 RoTE 的阻力因素之一。它是由 AP 成長驅動的。當然，這是由隨著時間的推移股票數量減少所推動的。這就是我們看到它向前發展的真正原因。

And clearly, as a management team, we're most focused on the loss of those two, just noting that the cash flow hedge reserve can move around quite a bit. So it's AP accretion and really that buyback value creation that we're focused on.

顯然，作為管理團隊，我們最關注的是這兩者的損失，只是注意到現金流對沖儲備可能會發生相當大的波動。因此，我們關注的是 AP 增值和回購價值創造。

And Venkat?

文卡特呢？

Yes. I mean I would just say, Anna, to pick up on that point on TNAV, this is a very important fundamental improvement in the bank when you just see the TNAV go up. And as Anna said, we emphasize the second two parts, which is AP accretion and share count. Coming back to the LTIP. Well, first of all, it should be clear, the LTIP targets and the composition and levels of compensation for both Anna and me are set by the Board. And normally, there is in the LTIP, it's aligned to, obviously, these financial targets, but there's always a little bit of stretch in them so that -- sort of incentivization of management. And that's all there is to it.

是的。我的意思是，安娜，我想說的是，當你看到 TNAV 上升時，這是銀行非常重要的根本性改進。正如安娜所說，我們強調後兩個部分，即 AP 成長和份額計數。回到LTIP。嗯，首先，應該明確的是，LTIP 目標以及 Anna 和我的薪酬組成和水準是由董事會設定的。通常情況下，LTIP 顯然與這些財務目標保持一致，但它們總是有一點延伸，以便對管理層進行激勵。這就是全部內容。

So I think with that, questions are over. If I may, I'd just like to say thank you very much for your time. As Anna and I have emphasized throughout, we are on track with the 3-year plan, which we laid out in February 2024. We both, Anna and I, look forward to seeing many of you on the road and on the 18th of June for our business deep dive with the UK Corporate Bank. So thank you very much.

所以我認為，問題就結束了。如果可以的話，我只想對您抽出寶貴的時間表示感謝。正如安娜和我自始至終強調的那樣，我們正在按照 2024 年 2 月制定的 3 年計劃走上正軌。的業務深入探討。非常感謝。

Thank you, everyone, for joining. This concludes today's call.

謝謝大家的加入。今天的電話會議到此結束。