波音 (BA) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。大家好，歡迎參加波音公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

此時，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁馬特·韋爾奇先生進行開場發言和介紹。韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Boeing's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎參加波音 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。我是馬特·韋爾奇，今天和我在一起的還有波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩；以及波音公司執行副總裁兼首席財務官布萊恩·韋斯特。

And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation at boeing.com. As always, detailed financial information included in today's press release. Furthermore, projections, estimates and goals included in today's discussion involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of the web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release for presentation -- and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

提醒一下，您可以在 boeing.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。與往常一樣，詳細的財務信息包含在今天的新聞稿中。此外，今天討論中包含的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及網絡演示末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益報告以進行演示，以及某些非公認會計原則措施的披露和調節演示。

Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給戴夫·卡爾霍恩。

Thank you, Matt. Welcome, everyone. As usual, I'm going to make a few comments upfront with respect to the quarter. The quarter was solid, very solid for all of our businesses. We continue to make steady progress on our recovery.

謝謝你，馬特。歡迎大家。像往常一樣，我將預先就本季度發表一些評論。這個季度表現很穩健，對於我們所有的業務來說都非常穩健。我們的複蘇繼續穩步取得進展。

We do have challenges. The supply chain notably is the most significant, but it's steadily getting better. Overall, we feel good about our operational and financial outlook, including the free cash flow and delivery ranges that we set for 2023 as well as for that 2025 and '26 time frame.

我們確實面臨挑戰。供應鏈尤其是最重要的，但它正在穩步變得更好。總體而言，我們對我們的運營和財務前景感到滿意，包括我們為 2023 年以及 2025 年和 26 年時間框架設定的自由現金流和交付範圍。

We're particularly encouraged by generating $2.6 billion in free cash flow in the quarter. Cash flow is the best metric that we have to measure progress against this recovery. We had a very strong second quarter, and we're confident in the $3 billion to $5 billion target for the year.

本季度產生 26 億美元的自由現金流，令我們深受鼓舞。現金流是我們衡量復甦進展的最佳指標。我們第二季度的表現非常強勁，我們對今年 30 億至 50 億美元的目標充滿信心。

I'd like to highlight a couple of updates around the businesses. Commercial Airplanes had a very solid quarter. Demand remains high. We booked 460 net orders in the second quarter. And we're proud to announce or firm up key orders, I should say, 220 for Air India, and we secured our commitment for up to 300 with Ryanair.

我想強調一些有關業務的更新。商用飛機季度表現非常強勁。需求仍然很高。第二季度我們預訂了 460 份淨訂單。我們很自豪地宣布或確定了印度航空的 220 架關鍵訂單，並且我們與瑞安航空簽訂了多達 300 架的訂單。

Broadly, demand is strong and resilient. The need for 42,000 airplanes over the next 20 years is what the industry is telling us. And with demand strong, the supply side of the system is beginning to settle down. Our focus remains on execution and driving stability in the production and the supply chain, and we're making steady progress.

總體而言，需求強勁且富有彈性。業界告訴我們，未來 20 年需要 42,000 架飛機。隨著需求的強勁，系統的供給側開始穩定下來。我們的重點仍然是執行和推動生產和供應鏈的穩定性，並且我們正在穩步取得進展。

We delivered 136 commercial airplanes in the quarter, including 103 737s and 20 787. Given the progress through the first half of the year, we are on the right path to reach our 737 and 787 delivery guidance for the year. And we're steadily increasing our rates on each program with focus on stability every step of the way.

本季度我們交付了 136 架商用飛機，其中包括 103 737 架和 20 787 架。鑑於今年上半年的進展，我們正朝著實現今年 737 和 787 交付目標的正確方向前進。我們正在穩步提高每個計劃的費率，並註重每一步的穩定性。

With respect to the Spirit quality escapes, the work stoppage and the bridge impairment, all have been contained and will be remedied as we exit the third quarter. But it will cost us a few deliveries in the quarter itself.

至於精神質量逃逸、停工和橋樑損傷，所有這些都已得到遏制，並將在第三季度結束時得到補救。但這將使我們在本季度的交付量減少一些。

We're also progressing across our key development programs: the 737-7, the -10, the 777X and the 777-8F. This quarter is a solid proof point that we're beginning to stabilize our operations and are on the right path, and the financial results speak for themselves.

我們的關鍵開發項目也在取得進展：737-7、-10、777X 和 777-8F。本季度有力地證明了我們的運營已開始穩定並走在正確的道路上，財務業績不言而喻。

I'd like to recognize our team and our customers on the 737 MAX return to service. As of this month, the fleet has flown more than 5 million flight hours and over 2 million flights since returning to service, all with exceptional reliability.

我想就 737 MAX 恢復服務向我們的團隊和客戶表示感謝。截至本月，該機隊自恢復運營以來已飛行超過 500 萬飛行小時和超過 200 萬次航班，所有這些都具有卓越的可靠性。

The return to service in China is now largely complete as well with more than 90% of the 737 MAX aircraft back in service. More broadly, in China, we're encouraged by recent signs of progress. It's an important market for us. We're committed to our customers there, and we'll be ready to deliver when that time comes.

中國的恢復服務現已基本完成，超過 90% 的 737 MAX 飛機已恢復運營。更廣泛地說，在中國，我們對最近取得的進展跡象感到鼓舞。這對我們來說是一個重要的市場。我們致力於為那裡的客戶提供服務，屆時我們將做好交付的準備。

Boeing defense. In defense and space, we still have more work to improve operating performance, but the portfolio is well positioned, and we're making progress. Results impacted by continuing losses on 3 fixed-price development programs, Commercial Crew, the T-7A and the MQ-25, have hit us in the quarter.

波音防禦。在國防和太空領域，我們仍有更多工作來提高運營績效，但產品組合定位良好，並且我們正在取得進展。受 3 個固定價格開發項目（Commercial Crew、T-7A 和 MQ-25）持續虧損影響的結果在本季度給我們帶來了打擊。

On Starliner, we're in lockstep with our customer. We prioritize safety, and we're taking whatever time is required. We're confident in that team and committed to getting it right.

在 Starliner 上，我們與客戶保持同步。我們優先考慮安全，並且我們會採取一切需要的時間。我們對這個團隊充滿信心，並致力於將其做好。

On MQ-25, schedule pressure added cost to the program, but we've had some recent successes that give us confidence that we're heading in the right direction. We're approximately 25% of the way through the build of our first MQ-25. The static test article fuselage is complete with preparation underway for the start of static testing this quarter.

對於 MQ-25，進度壓力增加了該計劃的成本，但我們最近取得的一些成功讓我們相信我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。我們第一架 MQ-25 的建造進度大約已完成 25%。靜態測試機身已完成，正在為本季度開始靜態測試做準備。

And on the T-7A, the impact was not due to any performance challenge within the quarter and was more associated with our estimates for higher supply chain and production costs in the future, similar to what many in the industry are facing. Even with the cost growth, we're hitting some key milestones on the program.

對於 T-7A，影響並不是由於本季度內的任何性能挑戰，而是與我們對未來更高的供應鍊和生產成本的估計有關，這與行業中許多人面臨的情況類似。即使成本有所增長，我們仍達到了該計劃的一些關鍵里程碑。

The Air Force successfully completed its first flight of the T-7. We're heading towards the start of a flight test in earnest. We're looking at the program. And if you look at the program from award to this moment, we've had some very important successes. We moved from firm concept to early flight testing in just 36 months on this program. And a combination of model-based engineering, 3D design and our advanced manufacturing increased first-time quality by 75% and reduced our assembly hours by 80%.

空軍成功完成了 T-7 的首次飛行。我們正在認真開始飛行測試。我們正在看這個計劃。如果你看看這個項目從獲獎到現在的那一刻，我們已經取得了一些非常重要的成功。在這個項目中，我們從確定的概念到早期的飛行測試僅用了 36 個月的時間。基於模型的工程、3D 設計和先進製造相結合，使首次質量提高了 75%，並將裝配時間縮短了 80%。

We're also making progress on other key BDS programs. On the tanker, for example, we have now completed rework on the production aircraft acquiring it, and we have resumed deliveries to the Air Force. As we move through each quarter, we're progressing through these contracts and getting closer to putting them in the rearview mirror.

我們在其他關鍵的北斗系統項目上也取得了進展。以加油機為例，我們現在已經完成了對購買它的生產飛機的返工，並且我們已經恢復了向空軍的交付。隨著每個季度的進展，我們正在逐步完成這些合同，並越來越接近將它們納入後視鏡。

Despite the challenges, we're hitting some important milestones that increase our confidence. Most importantly, these programs will meet or beat the high-performance standards of the warfighter.

儘管面臨挑戰，我們正在實現一些重要的里程碑，這增強了我們的信心。最重要的是，這些程序將滿足或超越作戰人員的高性能標準。

Given the fixed price nature of some of our contracts, we're very transparent about these financial impacts. And we're working to stabilize, to derisk and mature them through development.

鑑於我們的一些合同的固定價格性質，我們對這些財務影響非常透明。我們正在努力通過發展來穩定它們、消除風險並使其成熟。

Quarterly charges have declined significantly over the last 18 months. The demand side of BDS is strong. We see solid order activity. In the quarter, we booked orders valued at $6 billion, including key contracts from the U.S. Army for 19 Chinooks, and Germany also shared its plans to purchase 60 Chinooks.

過去 18 個月中季度費用大幅下降。北斗系統需求面強勁。我們看到穩定的訂單活動。本季度，我們預訂了價值 60 億美元的訂單，其中包括美國陸軍購買 19 架支奴干的關鍵合同，德國也分享了購買 60 架支奴干的計劃。

We remain confident in our defense business. Demand is strong, and we will continue to improve operational performance to more normalized levels.

我們對我們的國防業務仍然充滿信心。需求強勁，我們將繼續將運營績效提高到更加規範的水平。

Boeing Global Services. Another very strong quarter both on the commercial and government side of BGS, healthy revenue and expanding earnings and margin. We're really proud of this team. They've had solid, steady performance. And they've enabled both commercial and military customers to keep fleets flying through a very dynamic time.

波音全球服務。 BGS 的商業和政府方面又是一個非常強勁的季度，收入穩健，盈利和利潤不斷擴大。我們為這個團隊感到非常自豪。他們的表現紮實、穩定。它們使商業和軍事客戶能夠讓機隊在非常動態的時期保持飛行。

Some of our highlights this quarter include the expansion in Poland with a new parts distribution site, Japan Airlines adopting Boeing Insight Accelerator, our digital predictive maintenance solution for the 787 fleet.

本季度我們的一些亮點包括在波蘭擴建新的零件配送站點、日本航空採用波音 Insight Accelerator（我們為 787 機隊提供的數字預測維護解決方案）。

To wrap up my comments, we've had no shortage of challenges pop up to the start of this year, and we knew that would be the case. We've had conformance items that we've identified or external challenges within the supply chain, even logistic routes, including washed out bridges.

總結一下我的評論，今年年初我們不乏出現的挑戰，而且我們知道情況會如此。我們已經確定了符合性項目或供應鏈內的外部挑戰，甚至包括被沖毀的橋樑在內的物流路線。

This is a complex business. We expect items to come up. And when they do, we're transparent. We take action, and we move forward. This is what progress looks like. We're proud of the team. We are well positioned for the year and for the long term. Relative to the strong demand, we will remain in a supply-constrained world for the foreseeable future.

這是一項複雜的業務。我們預計會出現一些項目。當他們這樣做時，我們是透明的。我們採取行動，我們繼續前進。這就是進步的樣子。我們為我們的團隊感到自豪。我們今年和長期都處於有利位置。相對於強勁的需求，在可預見的未來，我們仍將處於供應緊張的世界。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

有了這個，我會把它交給布萊恩。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with the total company financial performance. Second quarter revenue was $19.8 billion. That's up 18% year-over-year. The growth was primarily driven by higher commercial volume, including increased 787 deliveries.

謝謝戴夫，大家早上好。讓我們從公司的總體財務業績開始。第二季度營收為 198 億美元。同比增長 18%。這一增長主要是由於商業銷量的增加，包括 787 交付量的增加。

Core operating margin in the quarter was minus 2%, and the core loss per share was $0.82. Margins and EPS were driven by expected abnormal costs and period expenses as well as losses on 3 fixed-price development programs in our defense business, which I'll cover later.

本季度核心營業利潤率為-2%，每股核心虧損為 0.82 美元。利潤率和每股收益是由預期的異常成本和期間費用以及我們國防業務中 3 個固定價格開發項目的損失驅動的，我將在稍後介紹。

Free cash flow, as Dave mentioned, was positive $2.6 billion in the quarter, significantly better versus last year and last quarter driven by higher commercial deliveries and favorable receipt timing. Relative to our expectations shared at the last earnings call, the strong order activity in the quarter drove over $2 billion of favorable advanced payment timing. Keep in mind, most of this was expected to incur in the third quarter.

正如 Dave 提到的，由於商業交付量增加和有利的收貨時機，本季度自由現金流為 26 億美元，明顯好於去年和上季度。與我們在上次財報電話會議上分享的預期相比，本季度強勁的訂單活動推動了超過 20 億美元的有利提前付款時機。請記住，其中大部分預計將在第三季度發生。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover Commercial Airplanes. BCA booked 460 net orders in the quarter, including 220 with Air India, 39 with Riyadh Air and signed a purchase agreement with Ryanair for up to 300 737 MAX 10s. We now have over 4,800 airplanes in backlog valued at $363 billion.

翻到下一頁，我將介紹商用飛機。 BCA 本季度淨訂單 460 架，其中印度航空 220 架，利雅得航空 39 架，並與瑞安航空簽署了最多 300 737 MAX 10 的採購協議。我們現在有 4,800 多架飛機積壓，價值 3,630 億美元。

Revenue was $8.8 billion, up 41% year-over-year on 136 airplane deliveries driven by the 87 program. Operating margin was minus 4.3%, a sequential improvement versus the first quarter as anticipated but remains negative as we continue to be impacted by expected abnormal costs and period expenses, including higher R&D spending. As Dave noted, we worked through a number of operational challenges so far this year. We're making steady progress, and we'll continue to focus on stability as we look to increase production on key programs.

87 計劃推動交付 136 架飛機，收入為 88 億美元，同比增長 41%。營業利潤率為-4.3%，與第一季度相比有所改善，符合預期，但由於我們繼續受到預期異常成本和期間費用（包括更高的研發支出）的影響，營業利潤率仍然為負。正如戴夫指出的，今年到目前為止，我們解決了許多運營挑戰。我們正在穩步取得進展，在尋求增加關鍵項目的產量時，我們將繼續關注穩定性。

On the Spirit work stoppage, we were pleased to see a quick resolution, and we will work through any limited impacts to production. Overall, this is not expected to change our production and delivery outlook.

關於 Spirit 停工問題，我們很高興看到快速解決，我們將解決對生產的任何有限影響。總體而言，預計這不會改變我們的生產和交付前景。

On to the programs. On the 737, we had 103 deliveries in the quarter, including 49 in June, a positive proof point that the production system is stabilizing. In regards to the Spirit fitting issue that we discussed last quarter, in May, we resumed deliveries of rework airplanes and also began producing newly built airplanes meeting our specifications.

繼續節目。在 737 方面，我們本季度交付了 103 架，其中 6 月份交付了 49 架，這是生產系統正在穩定的積極證據。關於我們上季度討論的精神適配問題，5月份，我們恢復了返工飛機的交付，並開始生產符合我們規格的新建飛機。

In light of this progress, we are now transitioning production to 38 per month and still plan to increase to 50 per month in the '25, '26 time frame. As we move to the higher rate, we'll continue to prioritize stability, and it will take some time to consistently deliver at 38 per month off the line. We still project full year 737 deliveries of 400 to 450 with sequential improvement in the second half.

鑑於這一進展，我們現在將產量轉變為每月 38 件，併計劃在 25 年、26 年期間將產量增加到每月 50 件。隨著我們轉向更高的速率，我們將繼續優先考慮穩定性，並且需要一些時間才能始終以每月 38 的速度交付。我們仍預計 737 全年交付量為 400 至 450 架，下半年將環比改善。

We ended the quarter with approximately 228 MAX airplanes in inventory. This includes 85 for customers in China and 55 that have now been remarketed as part of the plan we've previously discussed. We still expect most MAX inventory airplane to be delivered by the end of 2024.

本季度結束時，我們的庫存約有 228 架 MAX 飛機。其中包括面向中國客戶的 85 款，以及作為我們之前討論的計劃的一部分現已重新銷售的 55 款。我們仍然預計大多數 MAX 庫存飛機將在 2024 年底前交付。

Moving on to the 87 program. We had 20 deliveries in the quarter and still expect between 70 and 80 deliveries this year. We increased production to 4 per month during the quarter and still plan to reach 5 per month by year-end. We ended the quarter with 85 airplanes in inventory, and rework is progressing nicely. And we still expect most to be delivered by the end of 2024.

繼續87計劃。本季度我們交付了 20 架，預計今年的交付量將在 70 到 80 架之間。我們在本季度將產量增加到每月 4 件，並仍計劃到年底達到每月 5 件。本季度結束時，我們的庫存有 85 架飛機，返工進展順利。我們仍然預計大部分將在 2024 年底之前交付。

We booked $314 million of abnormal costs in the quarter, in line with expectations. And there's no change to the total estimate of $2.8 billion, which is largely done by year-end.

我們在本季度登記了 3.14 億美元的異常成本，符合預期。 28 億美元的總預算沒有變化，大部分在年底前完成。

Finally, on the 777X program, efforts are ongoing, and the program time line is unchanged. Abnormal costs were $136 million as expected, and we've lowered our total estimate from $1.5 billion to $1 billion, which reflects plans to resume production later this year rather than early 2024.

最後，關於777X計劃，工作仍在進行中，計劃時間線沒有變化。正如預期，異常成本為 1.36 億美元，我們已將總預估從 15 億美元下調至 10 億美元，這反映出計劃在今年晚些時候而不是 2024 年初恢復生產。

Moving on to the next page and defense and space. BDS booked $6 billion in orders in the quarter, including an award from the U.S. Army for 19 CH-47 Chinooks, and the backlog is now at $58 billion. Revenue was flat at $6.2 billion, and we delivered 38 aircraft in the quarter.

進入下一頁，防禦和空間。 BDS 本季度獲得了 60 億美元的訂單，其中包括美國陸軍授予的 19 架 CH-47 支奴干直升機，目前積壓訂單已達 580 億美元。收入持平於 62 億美元，本季度交付了 38 架飛機。

Operating margin was minus 8.5% primarily driven by 3 fixed price development programs. The first was related to Commercial Crew tied to schedule delays that we've previously shared and had a $257 million impact; the second on MQ-25 related to a schedule shift that drove a $68 million impact; and lastly, on the T-7A production contract, we revised the long-term production cost estimates that will occur over several years starting in the 2025 time frame, which drove an impact of $189 million.

營業利潤率為-8.5%，主要由 3 個固定價格開發計劃推動。第一個與我們之前分享過的 Commercial Crew 航班延誤有關，造成了 2.57 億美元的影響；第二個與 MQ-25 相關的計劃變更導致了 6800 萬美元的影響；最後，關於 T-7A 生產合同，我們修改了從 2025 年開始的幾年內的長期生產成本估算，這帶來了 1.89 億美元的影響。

These determinations were mostly made over the last few weeks as we closed out the quarter. Similar to last quarter, roughly 60% of the portfolio is generating solid levels of performance, in line with historical margins. But we continue to see operational impacts from labor instability and supply chain disruption on other programs that contributed to lower margins.

這些決定主要是在我們結束本季度時的過去幾週內做出的。與上季度類似，大約 60% 的投資組合正在產生穩定的業績水平，與歷史利潤率相符。但我們繼續看到勞動力不穩定和供應鏈中斷對其他項目的運營影響，導致利潤率下降。

Looking at BDS in aggregate, it will take time to return to normalized levels of performance. We're confident and we're focused on the path to high single-digit margins in 2025, 2026. There's strong demand across the customer base, the portfolio is well positioned, and we're focused on execution.

從總體來看，BDS 需要一段時間才能恢復到正常的性能水平。我們充滿信心，並專注於在 2025 年、2026 年實現高個位數利潤率。客戶群需求強勁，產品組合定位良好，我們專注於執行。

Moving on to the next page, let's cover services. BGS had another very strong quarter. BGS received $4 billion in orders during the quarter, and the backlog is $18 billion. Revenue was $4.7 billion, up 10% year-over-year primarily driven by favorable volume and mix in both commercial and government services.

進入下一頁，我們來介紹一下服務。 BGS 又經歷了一個非常強勁的季度。 BGS 本季度收到了 40 億美元的訂單，積壓訂單為 180 億美元。收入為 47 億美元，同比增長 10%，主要得益於商業和政府服務的良好數量和組合。

Operating margin was 18%, an expansion of 110 basis points versus last year with both our commercial and government businesses delivering double-digit margins. Operating margins in the quarter were higher than expected due to favorable mix, which we don't expect to continue at these levels.

營業利潤率為 18%，比去年增長了 110 個基點，我們的商業和政府業務均實現了兩位數的利潤率。由於有利的組合，本季度的營業利潤率高於預期，但我們預計這種情況不會繼續保持在這樣的水平。

In the quarter, BGS announced an expansion in Poland with a new parts distribution site, a collaboration with CAE. And the Japan Airlines has adopted the Boeing Insight Accelerator for their 787 fleet.

本季度，BGS 宣布與 CAE 合作在波蘭擴張，設立一個新的零件分銷站點。日本航空公司已為其 787 機隊採用了波音 Insight Accelerator。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover cash and debt. We ended the quarter with $13.8 billion of cash and marketable securities. And our debt balance decreased to $52.3 billion. In the quarter, we repaid $3.4 billion of maturing debt and provided a $180 million cash advance to Spirit as previously shared.

翻到下一頁，我將討論現金和債務。本季度結束時，我們擁有 138 億美元的現金和有價證券。我們的債務餘額減少至 523 億美元。在本季度，我們償還了 34 億美元的到期債務，並向 Spirit 提供了之前分享的 1.8 億美元的現金預付款。

Year-to-date, we've repaid $5.1 billion of debt, which is essentially all of our maturities for the year. We also maintained $12 billion revolving credit facilities at the end of the quarter, all of which remain undrawn.

今年迄今為止，我們已經償還了 51 億美元的債務，這基本上是我們今年的全部到期債務。截至本季度末，我們還維持了 120 億美元的循環信貸額度，全部尚未提取。

Our liquidity position is strong. Investment-grade credit rating continues to be important. And we're deploying capital in line with the priorities we've shared: invest in the business and pay down debt through strong cash flow generation.

我們的流動性狀況強勁。投資級信用評級仍然很重要。我們正在根據我們共同的優先事項部署資本：投資業務並通過強勁的現金流生成來償還債務。

And flipping to the last page, I'll cover our outlook. The 2023 overall financial outlook is unchanged from what we previously shared, including $3 billion to $5 billion of free cash flow generation. The operating cash makeup by division will likely be different with BCA and BGS better than expected and BDS lower than expected due to the lower operating performance. Net-net, we still have confidence in the $3 billion to $5 billion of free cash flow for the year.

翻到最後一頁，我將介紹我們的前景。 2023 年的整體財務前景與我們之前分享的相同，包括 30 億至 50 億美元的自由現金流生成。各部門的經營現金構成可能會有所不同，BCA 和 BGS 好於預期，而 BDS 由於經營業績較低而低於預期。淨淨來看，我們對今年 30 億至 50 億美元的自由現金流仍然有信心。

Stepping back to address the state of the market. Commercial demand remains strong across our key programs and services. Cargo remains healthy. Global passenger traffic was up 39% in May and is at 96% of prepandemic levels, 105% domestic and 91% international.

退一步來解決市場狀況。我們的關鍵項目和服務的商業需求依然強勁。貨物保持健康。 5 月份全球客運量增長了 39%，達到疫情前水平的 96%，其中國內客運量為 105%，國際客運量為 91%。

China pass-through traffic in May was at 87% of prepandemic levels with domestic traffic up more than 300% year-on-year and above prepandemic levels. Defense demand is also robust, and the FY '24 budget continues to progress in line with our expectations.

5月份中國中轉客運量為疫情前水平的87%，其中國內客運量同比增長超過300%，高於疫情前水平。國防需求也很強勁，24 財年預算的進展繼續符合我們的預期。

Our portfolio and capabilities are well positioned to support the needs of the nation and of our allies. With demand strong, we still find ourselves in a supply-constrained environment. And our focus continues to be on execution, both within our factories and the supply chain, as we steadily increase production.

我們的產品組合和能力能夠很好地支持國家和盟友的需求。儘管需求強勁，但我們仍然處於供應緊張的環境中。隨著產量的穩步增加，我們的重點仍然是工廠和供應鏈內的執行力。

Relative to the first half of 2023, we continue to expect operating and financial performance to improve in the second half. On the third quarter specifically, we expect BCA margins to improve sequentially but remain negative, and we're not anticipating much in terms of BDS profitability.

相對於 2023 年上半年，我們繼續預計下半年的運營和財務業績將有所改善。具體到第三季度，我們預計 BCA 利潤率將環比改善，但仍為負值，並且我們對 BDS 盈利能力的預期並不高。

The 2Q effective tax rate of 63% included cumulative adjustments related to the projected valuation allowance. These adjustments will continue to weigh on the tax rate for the remainder of the year. And given the strong results in 2Q cash flow, 3Q will be lower sequentially, still positive and likely in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

第二季度有效稅率為 63%，包括與預計估價津貼相關的累積調整。這些調整將繼續影響今年剩餘時間的稅率。鑑於第二季度現金流的強勁表現，第三季度將環比下降，但仍為正數，並且可能達到數億美元。

All things considered, we feel good about where we're at on the road to recovery. Right now, we're squarely focused on meaningful operating performance improvement, including deliveries, revenue, margins and cash flow, all of which will improve as we progress through 2023.

考慮到所有因素，我們對複甦之路上的進展感到滿意。目前，我們完全專注於有意義的運營績效改進，包括交付量、收入、利潤率和現金流，所有這些都將隨著我們在 2023 年的進展而改善。

And while the challenges remain, we're headed in the right direction. Ultimately, we expect our operational and financial performance to continue to accelerate, aligned with the plan we laid out at our IR Day last November. And we are confident in $10 billion of free cash flow in 2025, 2026.

儘管挑戰依然存在，但我們正朝著正確的方向前進。最終，我們預計我們的運營和財務業績將繼續加速，與我們去年 11 月 IR 日制定的計劃保持一致。我們對 2025 年、2026 年自由現金流達到 100 億美元充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave with some final remarks.

至此，我將把它交給戴夫並附上一些最後的評論。

Again, a solid quarter. We are wrestling our way through the BDS contract -- fixed-price contract exposures that we have. We're confident we will see them through. And as I've said before, most importantly, the products that we deliver to a warfighter will perform as or better than expected.

再次，這是一個穩定的季度。我們正在努力通過 BDS 合約——我們擁有的固定價格合約風險敞口。我們有信心能夠渡過難關。正如我之前所說，最重要的是，我們向戰士提供的產品將達到或優於預期。

So with that, I'll open it up to questions.

因此，我將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

So just digging into Commercial Airplanes' operating loss of $383 million in the quarter, how do we think about this turning positive? Can you maybe talk about the biggest drivers thinking about production rates stabilizing and then going up, what that does to operating margins? And how do you think about finalizing abnormal cost concessions and just pricing playing into the mix?

那麼，只要深入研究商用飛機集團本季度 3.83 億美元的運營虧損，我們如何看待這一轉正的情況？您能否談談考慮生產率穩定然後上升的最大驅動因素，這對營業利潤率有何影響？您如何看待最終確定異常成本優惠以及將定價納入其中？

Sheila, I'll start off with that. Last quarter -- first quarter, I should say, BCA margins were negative 9%, and we knew that they were going to get sequentially better, and they did. They got down to negative 4%. So it's good progress.

希拉，我就從這個開始吧。我應該說，上個季度——第一季度，BCA 的利潤率為負 9%，我們知道他們會連續好轉，而且他們確實做到了。他們的利率降至負 4%。所以這是一個很好的進步。

In terms of where we're headed, as we think about the back half of the year, we will still have some negativity, although sequentially better in the third quarter. And then as we exit the year and moving over into the first quarter of next year, those margins will move positive. We're confident in that.

就我們的發展方向而言，當我們考慮今年下半年時，我們仍然會有一些負面情緒，儘管第三季度的情況有所好轉。然後，當我們結束今年並進入明年第一季度時，這些利潤率將變為正值。我們對此充滿信心。

And some of the things are the ones you mentioned, which is rate ramp. You'll have some of this abnormal behind us in the rearview mirror and will be done. And of course, the pricing environment is pretty good. So all of that give us confidence that we will get these margins positive. And it will likely be towards the end of the year, early next year. And the team is laser-like focused on meeting those expectations.

其中一些事情就是你提到的，那就是速率提升。你會在後視鏡中看到我們身後的一些異常情況，然後就完成了。當然，定價環境也相當不錯。因此，所有這些都讓我們有信心獲得正利潤。很可能是在今年年底、明年初。該團隊像激光一樣專注於滿足這些期望。

The next question is from the line of Peter Arment from Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Brian, staying on that same line of questioning on MAX profitability. Maybe you can just walk us through how we think about cash profitability will improve with these scheduled rate breaks. Do we need to hit like a higher rate of 42 a month before we see meaningful improvement there? Or is it more about the -- once the liquidations are complete in 2024?

布萊恩（Brian）對 MAX 盈利能力提出了同樣的質疑。也許您可以向我們介紹一下我們如何看待現金盈利能力將通過這些預定的利率下調而提高。我們是否需要達到每月 42 的更高比率才能看到有意義的改善？或者更多的是——一旦 2024 年清算完成？

Well, it's both. Certainly, the liquidation benefit is something we're very focused on because when you get rid of both on the 37 and the 87 those dual factories, it's just going to be a huge relief for the business to put that behind us. And we're tracking, and we're going to make good progress. And that will be substantially behind us as we move out of 2024. So that, no doubt, is a very big deal, coupled with the rate breaks.

嗯，兩者都是。當然，清算收益是我們非常關注的事情，因為當你擺脫 37 和 87 的雙工廠時，對於企業來說，將其拋在腦後將是一個巨大的解脫。我們正在跟踪，並且將取得良好進展。當我們走出 2024 年時，這種情況將大大過去。因此，毫無疑問，再加上利率調整，這是一件非常大的事情。

We just announced going to 38. That's a big important move, and there'll be subsequent rate breaks beyond that. And all of that is going to play into a margin trajectory that's going to start to look a lot more normal. And by the time we get through 2024, and we're focused on that '25, '26 time frame, as we've said, BCA margins will look a lot like they did before in that low double-digit area. So we know what we have to go do. The levers are clear. We just got to execute.

我們剛剛宣布將利率提高到 38。這是一個重大舉措，除此之外還會有後續的利率調整。所有這些都將影響利潤率軌跡，該軌跡將開始看起來更加正常。到 2024 年，我們的重點是 25 年、26 年的時間框架，正如我們所說，BCA 的利潤率將看起來很像以前那樣，處於較低的兩位數區域。所以我們知道我們必須做什麼。槓桿很清楚。我們只需執行即可。

The next question is from Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

One clarification, one question. So I think, Brian, you said that you expected second half improvement in 37 deliveries. So are you implying that we're now going to be at the top end of the delivery range for the 737? And then I was intrigued by the 777X pull forward of resuming production there. Dave, was there something on the regulatory front in terms of progress that's helping you pull forward that schedule at this point?

一項澄清，一個問題。所以我認為，Brian，您說過您預計下半年交付量將有所改善，數量為 37 架。那麼您是在暗示我們現在將處於 737 交付範圍的高端嗎？然後我對 777X 恢復生產的推動很感興趣。戴夫，監管方面是否取得了一些進展，可以幫助您提前完成這一計劃？

No, I wouldn't say anything has changed. We're still confident in the regulatory process. This is our desire to simply get ahead of the production curve. There's no -- yes, no breaks on the regulatory side. We still have margin in that. And hopefully, we can beat it. But all the projections we've given you, I think, are still intact.

不，我不會說有任何改變。我們對監管程序仍然充滿信心。我們的願望就是超越生產曲線。是的，監管方面沒有任何突破。我們在這方面仍有餘地。希望我們能夠擊敗它。但我認為我們給你的所有預測仍然完好無損。

Myles, in answer to the 737 forecast that we get to the high end, we -- of course, we did 103 in the second quarter, and the quarterly rates will be higher than 103 is our expectation. Of course, we had a little bit of the Spirit impact in there. That's why that will get sequentially better.

邁爾斯，為了回答我們達到高端的 737 架預測，我們——當然，我們在第二季度做了 103 架，我們的預期是季度率將高於 103 架。當然，我們在那裡受到了一點精神影響。這就是為什麼情況會逐漸變得更好。

And in terms of the rate itself, we squarely see the middle of that range as high confidence. And the question is going to be how much can we move from the middle of the range up to the higher end. And we'll prove that out day in and day out as we execute and build more airplanes. So we feel very good about the range, and we'll keep reporting as we see the execution, but right now, a degree of confidence in that front.

就比率本身而言，我們直接認為該範圍的中間位置具有高置信度。問題是我們能從中間範圍向高端移動多少。隨著我們執行和製造更多飛機，我們將日復一日地證明這一點。因此，我們對這個範圍感覺非常好，當我們看到執行情況時，我們將繼續報告，但現在，我們對這方面有一定程度的信心。

The next question is from Jason Gursky from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Brian, one just bookkeeping question and then one question on defense margins. On the more bookkeeping one, the services business is posting some pretty good margins here, and you're noting mix. I'm just wondering when you -- if you could just talk a little bit about when you kind of go back to more normalized margins in that business based on what you're seeing in your inventory mix there.

布萊恩，一個只是簿記問題，然後是一個關於國防利潤的問題。在更多的簿記方面，服務業務在這裡公佈了一些相當不錯的利潤，並且您注意到了混合。我只是想知道，您是否可以根據您在庫存組合中看到的情況，談談您何時可以在該業務中恢復更正常的利潤率。

And then on the defense, you've historically talked about 60% doing pretty well, 15% these development programs and then 25% some legacy programs. That's how you've talked about the margins in that business. Can you confirm that 60%, 15%, 25% is still the right mix of things? And then kind of what's based -- or what's in your assumptions on getting back to that high single-digit rate in that '25, '26 time frame in those 3 buckets?

然後在防守方面，您歷來談到 60% 做得很好，15% 是這些開發項目，然後 25% 是一些遺留項目。這就是您談論該業務的利潤率的方式。您能否確認 60%、15%、25% 仍然是正確的組合？然後，基於什麼——或者您對在 25 年、26 年這 3 個時間段內恢復到高個位數利率的假設是什麼？

Sure. So let's take services. Yes, they just had an excellent quarter. And both the commercial and the government businesses were performing incredibly well. We still have expectations of that business, and we want them to be doing margins that are in the teens. Will it be 18 quarter-on-quarter out? No, it will come back a little bit. But when I say come back a little bit, we still feel like our long-term view of that business should be in the mid-teens.

當然。那麼我們就採取服務吧。是的，他們剛剛度過了一個出色的季度。商業和政府業務的表現都非常出色。我們對該業務仍然抱有期望，我們希望他們的利潤率能達到十幾歲。季度環比會是18嗎？不，它會回來一點。但當我說回來一點時，我們仍然覺得我們對該業務的長期看法應該在十幾歲左右。

And from time to time, it will be a little better, and we'll keep pushing the business to be just as good as they can be. But I don't expect it to step back dramatically. We feel really good about where that business is positioned.

有時，情況會好一點，我們將繼續推動業務盡可能好。但我預計它不會大幅後退。我們對該業務的定位非常滿意。

I'd just comment on that. It's just important to note that they are still in an extremely supply-constrained world. Everything they do is supply constrained. So pricing is a little favorable. Anything that they can get out of their shops are being taken.

我只是對此發表評論。值得注意的是，他們仍然處於供應極度受限的世界。他們所做的一切都是供應有限的。所以定價還是比較優惠的。他們能從商店裡買到的任何東西都被拿走了。

That has not changed. And so how long that lasts? My prediction is it's going to be quite a while. I don't see any let up with respect to the need for lift out there, and everybody is fighting for the next part. So I think that's just the moment we're in.

這一點沒有改變。那麼這種情況會持續多久？我的預測是這將需要相當長的一段時間。我認為對升空的需求沒有任何放鬆，每個人都在為下一部分而奮鬥。所以我認為這就是我們所處的時刻。

And in regards to the defense business, you've got the pieces correct. The way we think about the fixed-price development programs that we've talked about, 15%, we just have to stabilize those and execute and know that every quarter, we're getting closer to having those products over and delivering behind us.

在國防業務方面，你的想法是正確的。我們思考我們討論過的固定價格開發計劃的方式，15%，我們只需要穩定這些計劃並執行，並且知道每個季度，我們都越來越接近這些產品的交付和交付。

The next piece of the 60%, very stable. There's a lot of very nice products in there, and we have to keep them stable. And with lean efforts and other things, we actually could get a little bit of productivity out of those programs to get better and better and better. But that's -- keep that 60% stable and keep it moving.

接下來一塊60%，很穩定。那裡有很多非常好的產品，我們必須保持它們的穩定。通過精益努力和其他事情，我們實際上可以從這些計劃中獲得一點生產力，以變得越來越好。但那就是——保持 60% 的穩定並保持移動。

And it's the 25% that's left over, that's the part of the portfolio, it's a handful of programs, and they are not where they need to be. They are negative. They need to swing positive, and there's a plan to go do that, but it's just going to take us a little bit of time.

剩下的 25% 是投資組合的一部分，是少數幾個項目，但它們並沒有發揮到應有的作用。他們是消極的。他們需要積極主動，並且有計劃這樣做，但這只會花費我們一點時間。

In terms of what this portfolio looks like in the '25, '26 time frame, we believe the 15% will be stable, right? We'll be at certain milestones where a lot of the stuff will be in the rearview mirror.

就該投資組合在 25 年、26 年時間範圍內的情況而言，我們相信 15% 將是穩定的，對吧？我們將達到某些里程碑，很多東西都會出現在後視鏡中。

And the 85% that's left over is going to be performing at very attractive margins because we've done the hard work of stabilizing and then trying to bring in even more productivity programs, including lean manufacturing, so that these businesses can get even healthier and stronger. So the road map is clear. It's on us to execute it, but we think we've got all the levers working. And the team is very motivated and laser-like focused.

剩下的 85% 將獲得非常有吸引力的利潤，因為我們已經完成了穩定工作的艱苦工作，然後試圖引入更多的生產力計劃，包括精益製造，以便這些企業能夠變得更加健康和更強。所以路線圖很明確。執行它的責任在於我們，但我們認為我們已經使所有手段都發揮了作用。該團隊非常積極，並且高度專注。

The next question is from Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

So basically, to follow up on Jason's question, if we take out the loss programs, BDS still was marginally red. And if we take the 60% that should be earning, they should be earning $300 million. So if the 25% losing $300 million, that's the one I really don't understand. How bad is that?

因此，基本上，為了跟進傑森的問題，如果我們去掉損失計劃，BDS 仍然會略微紅色。如果我們拿掉應得收入的 60%，他們應該賺 3 億美元。因此，如果 25% 的人損失了 3 億美元，那我真的無法理解。那有多糟糕？

And if you say you're going to have modest profits in the third quarter, I mean, again, it looks like there's fairly significant underperformance there. Maybe give us a little more color on the programs involved and what it takes to get them black.

如果你說你在第三季度將獲得適度的利潤，我的意思是，看起來那裡的表現相當明顯不佳。也許可以讓我們對所涉及的項目以及如何讓它們變黑有更多的了解。

Yes. Sure, Cai. So we're not going to have modest profitability in the quarter. I think we said that we're not expecting much at all from the BDS portfolio, just to be clear, because these things aren't going to solve themselves in the near term.

是的。當然，蔡。因此，我們本季度的盈利能力不會很弱。我想我們說過，我們對 BDS 產品組合沒有太多期望，只是要明確一點，因為這些問題不會在短期內自行解決。

Yes, it's a significant gap. It's a hundreds of millions of dollars of swing that we have to go execute to get these handful of programs in a better spot. And they are complicated situations with complicated products and factories that almost went dark during the pandemic. And we've had to bring them back to life.

是的，這是一個很大的差距。為了使這些少數項目處於更好的位置，我們必須執行數億美元的資金。而且情況很複雜，產品也很複雜，工廠在疫情期間幾乎陷入停業。我們必須讓它們復活。

And that takes time because one is to get them up and moving and then also to get the right labor that's trained and knows how to do some very complicated work. So we know what the programs are and how we got to go attack them.

這需要時間，因為我們要讓他們站起來並移動，然後還要找到經過培訓並知道如何完成一些非常複雜的工作的合適勞動力。所以我們知道這些程序是什麼以及我們如何攻擊它們。

It just takes a little bit of time and a little bit longer than anyone expected. But we will make progress, and we'll work our way through it because we know how to make these programs and these products because we've been doing it for a while.

只是需要一點時間，而且比任何人預期的要長一點。但我們會取得進展，我們會努力解決這個問題，因為我們知道如何製作這些程序和這些產品，因為我們已經這樣做了一段時間。

Is there a -- is part of the problem that you got stuck with contracts, those are mostly fixed-price contracts and with inflation and all this disruption, that's the problem? And if so, do any of those contracts reach their end so that you can basically get better pricing going forward?

問題的一部分是不是你被合同困住了，這些合同大多是固定價格的合同，而通貨膨脹和所有這些干擾，這就是問題所在？如果是這樣，這些合同是否會到期，以便您基本上可以獲得更好的定價？

Yes. Let me just comment on that. Not really. So we're going to have to live within this envelope with respect to pricing and contracts. We might get some ups here and there and modifications here and there, but I wouldn't say that's the answer to this.

是的。讓我對此發表評論。並不真地。因此，我們必須在定價和合同方面遵守這個範圍。我們可能會到處進行一些升級和修改，但我不會說這就是問題的答案。

The answer is really to get a line that started from 0 because it was more or less dark, as Brian said, and get it up to pace. A couple of these products are -- they're not the same old product. There's actually a lot of new, I'll call it, capabilities embedded in these products.

答案實際上是得到一條從 0 開始的線，因為它或多或少是黑暗的，正如布萊恩所說，並讓它跟上節奏。其中一些產品是——它們不是同一個舊產品。實際上，這些產品中嵌入了很多新的（我稱之為）功能。

You can imagine what those are. I can't talk about them on the call. And so we're just working our way through learning curves. If we didn't see progress on those learning curves, we wouldn't be giving you the guidance that we're going to be back to where we were. We do see progress. It's not an act we haven't seen before. It does take time, frustrating for everybody, but we're getting there.

你可以想像那些是什麼。我不能在電話中談論他們。所以我們只是在學習曲線上努力。如果我們沒有看到這些學習曲線取得進展，我們就不會向您提供我們將回到原來狀態的指導。我們確實看到了進展。這不是我們以前沒見過的行為。這確實需要時間，讓每個人都感到沮喪，但我們正在實現這一目標。

The next question is from Robert Spingarn from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Dave, you've been really clear on no new airplane right now. But at the same time, you've talked about and Boeing is working on the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing aircraft, which seems to be a pretty exciting design for the narrow-body market.

戴夫，你已經很清楚現在沒有新飛機了。但與此同時，您談到波音公司正在開發跨音速桁架支撐翼飛機，這對於窄體市場來說似乎是一個非常令人興奮的設計。

And while I know it's early in that process, do you think it has a chance to enter service with current gen engines like the LEAP or the GTF and then maybe later take on a CFM rise? And then as a second part to this question, could this aircraft actually service the large narrow-body market as well, something against the 321?

雖然我知道現在還處於這個過程的早期階段，但您認為它有機會與 LEAP 或 GTF 等當前一代發動機一起投入使用，然後可能會在 CFM 上有所提升嗎？作為這個問題的第二部分，這架飛機是否真的可以服務於大型窄體市場，與 321 不同？

Yes. Look, I'm glad to get the question. We're heavily invested in this. We like what it could potentially deliver to this market, a level of performance that the industry is used to seeing with brand-new programs.

是的。聽著，我很高興收到這個問題。我們在這方面投入了大量資金。我們喜歡它可能為這個市場帶來的東西，即業界習慣於通過全新程序看到的性能水平。

So now for me to pick and choose the variations and the power plants at this stage is probably not smart. Suffice to say, we are intent on proving this technology. We are hopeful. And if it matures the way we think it will and NASA, frankly, thinks it will, I do think it will see service.

所以現在對我來說在這個階段挑選變體和發電廠可能並不明智。可以說，我們致力於證明這項技術。我們充滿希望。如果它像我們想像的那樣成熟，坦率地說，美國宇航局也認為它會成熟，我確實認為它會投入使用。

And then those power plant decisions will be exciting. You are right, we can use existing power, but we would prefer, frankly, to have a bigger fan diameter ultimately and maybe even open rotor someday. So those are all considerations without a doubt.

然後那些發電廠的決定將會令人興奮。你是對的，我們可以使用現有的動力，但坦率地說，我們更希望最終擁有更大的風扇直徑，甚至有一天甚至可以使用開放式轉子。所以毫無疑問，這些都是考慮因素。

I don't want to make choices too early. But all of those options that you're talking about are still out there. We just have to prove and mature the technology. If it behaves like it did in the wind tunnel, we're in a pretty good place.

我不想太早做出選擇。但您所談論的所有這些選項仍然存在。我們只需要證明這項技術並使之成熟即可。如果它的表現就像在風洞中一樣，那麼我們就處於一個非常好的位置。

Your next question is from Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

On the 737 MAX production rate increases to 38 per month, can you just give us more insight in terms of what's happening with the supply chain? What's their health? And any particular bottlenecks that you're monitoring in order for you to get to that rate? And any other additional color regarding the timing of this step-up would be appreciated as well.

關於 737 MAX 的生產率增加到每月 38 架，您能否向我們介紹一下供應鏈的更多情況？他們的健康狀況如何？為了達到這個速度，您正在監控任何特定的瓶頸嗎？關於此升級的時間安排的任何其他附加顏色也將受到讚賞。

Yes, Kristine, we're there. And we're confident that the supply chain is coordinated to deliver on this. They've known about it for a while, and we're happy to be able to move forward. So we feel very confident.

是的，克里斯汀，我們在那裡。我們相信，通過協調供應鏈來實現這一目標。他們已經知道這件事有一段時間了，我們很高興能夠繼續前進。所以我們感到非常有信心。

In terms of subsequent step-ups, the master schedule that's been out there is clear on what those look like. And we'll do it a step at a time, and we're happy we can make this first move to 38.

就後續的升級而言，已經制定的總體時間表已經明確了這些內容。我們將一步一步地進行，我們很高興能夠邁出第一步，邁向 38。

Most of our time and applied effort with respect to the supply chain is focused on readiness for the 50.

我們在供應鏈方面的大部分時間和努力都集中在為 50 強做好準備上。

Great. And then you guys had mentioned that after 38, it would be 42 after you've seen some stability. That stability, I mean, what are you guys looking for? Is it a few months of 38? Is it 6 months of 38? And what do you have to see to get you confident to move over to the next step-up of 42 per month?

偉大的。然後你們提到，38歲之後，當你看到一些穩定之後，就會是42歲。我的意思是，那種穩定性，你們在尋找什麼？ 38號還有幾個月嗎？是6個月38嗎？您需要看到什麼才能讓您有信心升級到每月 42 次？

Yes. It is as you suggest, 38 has to come and has to come in a stable form so that we're not up and down every month. But maybe more important than that, we now have such good visibility into the supply chain. We know whether they're ready for the next -- for 40, 42, 44, et cetera.

是的。正如你所建議的，38必須到來，並且必須以穩定的形式到來，這樣我們就不會每個月都上下波動。但也許比這更重要的是，我們現在對供應鏈有了很好的了解。我們知道他們是否準備好迎接下一個——40、42、44等等。

So I just think it's the combination of much better visibility on each of those step-ups and, yes, our own factories assembling and delivering at a steady pace. But you'll see all that just like we do.

所以我認為這是每個步驟的更好可見性以及我們自己的工廠以穩定的速度組裝和交付的結合。但你會像我們一樣看到這一切。

Our next question is from David Strauss from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯。

Dave, on 787, it looks like deliveries are off to a slow start here in July. I know you reiterated 70 to 80. There's some things swirling around out there that you're encountering some sort of new issue on the 87. Can you just address that?

戴夫，關於 787，看起來 7 月份的交付​​進展緩慢。我知道您重申了 70 到 80。有一些事情正在發生，您在 87 上遇到了某種新問題。您能解決這個問題嗎？

Yes. There's no new issue on the 87. Let's be very clear. There might have been a tick up in the stringer a few weeks ago, but we are very focused on both the joint verification work on the 87 and then getting stable at 4 and then work our way to 5. So 87, we feel particularly good about. And we're very confident in that 70 to 80 deliveries for this year.

是的。 87 上沒有新問題。我們要明確一點。幾週前縱梁可能出現了一些問題，但我們非常專注於 87 的聯合驗證工作，然後穩定在 4，然後努力達到 5。所以 87，我們感覺特別好關於。我們對今年 70 到 80 架的交付量非常有信心。

Yes, I'll just reiterate, Brian jumped me. But yes, we're actually feeling pretty good about the stability of the line and the -- there is no new issue.

是的，我重申一下，布萊恩跳了我。但是，是的，我們實際上對線路的穩定性感覺很好，並且沒有新問題。

Okay. Great. Quick follow-up probably for Brian. So the BCA forecast, the $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion operating cash flow this year, you've got an up arrow there. So what is surprising to the upside? I mean you're still running through big unit losses. Is it just upside from working capital advances coming in sooner than expected or better than expected? Is that the upside in terms of what that up arrow signifies?

好的。偉大的。布萊恩可能會快速跟進。因此，BCA 預測，今年的運營現金流為 25 億至 35 億美元，這裡有一個向上的箭頭。那麼，什麼是令人驚訝的上行空間呢？我的意思是你仍然面臨著巨大的單位損失。這只是營運資金預付款早於預期或好於預期帶來的好處嗎？這是向上箭頭所代表的好處嗎？

Bingo. It's the orders and it's the advances that's just better than we had thought.

答對了。訂單和進展比我們想像的要好。

Our next question is from Doug Harned from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德。

You've maintained your guidance for 2025, '26 to 50 a month on the MAX. It appears you've got demand that can be well in excess of that. And you've talked about the likelihood of even new orders coming in. And you've got the new line that should be finished in Everett next year some time.

您維持了 2025 年的指導方針，“MAX 每月 26 至 50 次”。看來您的需求可能遠遠超出這個範圍。您已經談到了甚至有新訂單進來的可能性。您已經得到了明年某個時候應該在埃弗里特完成的新生產線。

Can you talk about how you think about that line, where you could potentially go on rate? And how you deal with potential new orders coming in when kind of the skyline you've got laid out here is it probably pushes you out to like 2028 or so and the ability to take an order?

您能談談您對這條線的看法嗎？您可能會繼續按價格前進嗎？當你在這裡列出的天際線可能會將你推到 2028 年左右並且有能力接受訂單時，你如何處理潛在的新訂單？

Yes, Doug, why don't I take this? You're right. I guess the truth is, I think both us and our competitors face that circumstance of having to take orders now quite a ways out there. I would love to get to 60, and the market is there for it. There's no doubt about it.

是的，道格，我為什麼不接受這個呢？你說得對。我想事實是，我認為我們和我們的競爭對手現在都面臨著必須接受訂單的情況。我很想活到60歲，市場就在那裡。毫無疑問。

For me, there's a moment in time that is really important with respect to execution and the subject of stability, and that is second half of next year when we wind down all of our shadow factory efforts that we can apply all of the labor to those rate increases. So we already have the labor in-house, but now we get them to work on new airplanes.

對我來說，有一個時刻對於執行力和穩定性主題來說非常重要，那就是明年下半年，屆時我們將結束所有影子工廠的工作，我們可以將所有的勞動力應用於那些率增加。因此，我們已經擁有內部勞動力，但現在我們讓他們在新飛機上工作。

And that's a very good thing, and you know the economics attached to that. It's just not a simple thing to do. And I don't want any of us to get ahead of ourselves on this front. So we're just going to stay focused. We're going to work hard on stability.

這是一件非常好的事情，而且你知道與之相關的經濟學。這不是一件簡單的事情。我不希望我們中的任何人在這方面超越自己。所以我們要保持專注。我們將在穩定方面努力工作。

Second half of '24 is a very important moment in time because I believe that's the step change for BCA in pretty much every way. And if we get through that well and we execute well, then we'll be talking to all of you about 60. But I don't want to get ahead of myself on this one and either does the team.

24 年下半年是一個非常重要的時刻，因為我相信這對 BCA 來說幾乎在各個方面都發生了重大變化。如果我們能順利完成這一任務並且執行得很好，那麼我們將與你們所有人談論 60 人。但我不想在這件事上超前，團隊也不想。

But in principle, you can do the 50 out of Renton on your current 3 lines. So how are you thinking about -- there would be some more logistical complexity presumably doing one line in Everett. How would you use that even if you aren't up at 60 yet?

但原則上，你可以在當前的 3 行中完成 Renton 的 50 項。那麼你是如何考慮的——在埃弗里特做一條線可能會帶來更多的後勤複雜性。即使你還不到 60 歲，你會如何利用它？

Well, again, I'm -- having a little too much capacity is not a problem for us right now when you're trying to knock down stability. So if we run something at a suboptimal level, it's not going to cost us much, and it's going to improve stability and delivery and all those things.

好吧，我再說一遍——當你試圖破壞穩定性時，現在擁有一點太多的容量對我們來說不是問題。因此，如果我們在次優水平上運行某些東西，我們不會花費太多成本，而且會提高穩定性和交付以及所有這些東西。

So again, I don't -- I want to be careful. I don't want to get out that far and talk about trades at that moment. But right now, we're just focused on stability. We want to have more capacity than we need so that we're ready for that next increment. And that workforce transition is probably the most important part of all of it.

再說一遍，我不想——我想小心點。此刻我不想走那麼遠去談論交易。但現在，我們只關注穩定性。我們希望擁有比我們需要的更多的容量，以便我們為下一個增量做好準備。勞動力轉型可能是其中最重要的部分。

Your next question is from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Brian, I wanted to ask about the 787 and kind of you talked about some confidence in the pace of the production ramps and deliveries there. First, any particular items to watch in the supply chain?

Brian，我想問一下 787 的情況，您談到了對 787 的生產進度和交付速度的信心。首先，供應鏈中有哪些需要特別關注的項目？

And second, if you could start to help us think a little bit about deliveries next year because if you're building 60 or 70 planes and you're supposed to deliver most of the remaining inventory, it suggests potential for a pretty big delivery hall next year. So both in terms of what is the potential for that to make sure that we understand what is and also so we don't get overly exuberant about what it might be.

其次，如果您能開始幫助我們考慮一下明年的交付問題，因為如果您正在建造 60 或 70 架飛機，並且您應該交付大部分剩餘庫存，那麼這表明有可能建立一個相當大的交付大廳明年。因此，無論是在確保我們理解是什麼的潛力方面，還是在我們不會對它可能是什麼過於樂觀方面。

Well, I'll be less than satisfying for you because I just can't -- I really can't talk about next year delivery numbers. And it's just not the right time to do that. Although we still have confidence as we get out of the first half of this year, the second half will be better. And then we'll just want to make sure we're always sequentially improving.

好吧，我不會讓你滿意，因為我不能——我真的不能談論明年的交付數字。現在還不是這樣做的正確時機。雖然我們對度過今年上半年仍有信心，但下半年會更好。然後我們只想確保我們始終不斷改進。

As it pertains to the 87, very proud of that team, given where they've been over the last couple of years. They've got the joint verification work, very steady, consistent. They're working on their share of escapes that they knock down as fast as they see them. And they're getting to production rates that are steady.

對於 87 隊來說，考慮到他們過去幾年的表現，我為這支球隊感到非常自豪。他們的聯合核查工作非常穩定、一致。他們正在努力尋找逃跑的機會，一旦看到逃跑的機會，他們就會盡快將其擊倒。他們正在達到穩定的生產率。

And they're getting to that 5 per month by the end of the year is a big deal and no longer are they in the abnormal category. They're back to a path where we expect them. And then there'll be, obviously, increases from there to get to the 10 by '25, '26.

到今年年底，他們每月能達到 5 個，這是一件大事，他們不再屬於異常類別。他們又回到了我們期望的道路上。然後，顯然，到 25 年、26 年，數量會增加到 10 個。

So there's nothing in particular right now that is a major [worry bead] for 87. And the supply chain still feels like it's getting better, a little more stable, a little more coordinated. And we got to keep executing.

因此，目前沒有什麼特別值得 87 擔心的事情。供應鏈仍然感覺正在變得更好，更加穩定，更加協調。我們必須繼續執行。

And your next question is from Ron Epstein from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅恩·愛潑斯坦。

One topic we just haven't talked about much so far is China. Maybe can you update us on kind of how that's going and your sense on delivering new aircraft into China and what's going on there? I think that could be pretty helpful.

到目前為止我們還沒有談論太多的一個話題是中國。您能否向我們介紹一下最新進展情況以及您對向中國交付新飛機的看法以及那裡發生了什麼？我認為這可能很有幫助。

Yes. Yes, Ron. So you probably saw in our disclosures that we reduced our exposure, at least with respect to the finished goods inventory, down to 85. Of course, we did that with the permission and constructed dialogue with our customers in China.

是的。是的，羅恩。因此，您可能在我們的披露中看到，我們將風險敞口（至少在成品庫存方面）降低至 85。當然，我們這樣做是經過許可的，並與中國客戶建立了對話。

The return-to-service work in China with respect to the airplanes that were already there is largely complete. Everybody is very happy with the performance. In fact, the reliability of the fleet has been fantastic.

中國現有飛機的複飛工作已基本完成。每個人都對錶演感到非常滿意。事實上，機隊的可靠性非常出色。

And we're getting a lot of good signs that they'll resume delivery, but I'm not going to predict that for you. We're just going to keep managing it exactly the way we have been. We are not dependent on it.

我們收到了很多良好的跡象表明他們將恢復交付，但我不會為你預測這一點。我們將繼續按照以前的方式進行管理。我們並不依賴它。

We want to do it, and we certainly want to support our customers in China. And we will be the free trade beacon with respect to our administration and all the political influences. But I'm just going to leave it posture just the way it has been. I know that we have 85 airplanes that we would like to begin delivery on. We're getting good signals. I hope it can happen. Our guidance is not dependent on it.

我們希望做到這一點，我們當然希望支持我們在中國的客戶。我們將成為我們的政府和所有政治影響方面的自由貿易燈塔。但我只會讓它保持原來的樣子。我知道我們有 85 架飛機想要開始交付。我們收到了良好的信號。我希望這能發生。我們的指導並不依賴於它。

Got it. And then maybe one quick follow-up, if I may. We've talked a little bit about product development. Just wanted to get your thoughts on what A220 stretch 500 may or may not mean. It seems like Airbus is going to do it, at least that's the signals they're sending and just how you guys think about it?

知道了。如果可以的話，然後也許是一個快速的後續行動。我們已經討論了一些關於產品開發的問題。只是想了解您對 A220 拉伸 500 可能意味著或可能意味著什麼的想法。看來空中客車公司會這麼做，至少他們發出了這樣的信號，你們對此有何看法？

Honestly, I've probably been curt and maybe too curt with my answers, but I really don't think about it. I don't view it as a meaningful competitor. There's nothing that I would want to do on the product development front to respond to it. It's not the world that we're interested in.

老實說，我的回答可能很簡短，甚至可能太簡短了，但我真的沒有考慮過這一點。我不認為它是一個有意義的競爭對手。我不想在產品開發方面做任何事情來回應它。這不是我們感興趣的世界。

We like our portfolio. The next airplane, in my view, with respect to development has to be a meaningful change, 25%, 30% better than what flies today. That's why we're focused on Transonic wings. That is -- that's just our game plan. And I don't think -- based on all the competitions that we've touched and all the speculation that we hear, I just don't think it's going to be a meaningful difference.

我們喜歡我們的投資組合。在我看來，下一代飛機在開發方面必須是一個有意義的改變，比現在飛行的飛機好 25%、30%。這就是我們專注於跨音速機翼的原因。那就是——這只是我們的遊戲計劃。我不認為——基於我們接觸過的所有競爭以及我們聽到的所有猜測，我只是認為這不會產生有意義的差異。

Lois, we have time for one final question.

路易斯，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

And that question will come from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

這個問題將由高盛的諾亞·波波納克提出。

Maybe just a few, some last follow-ups or things that haven't been asked. The leadership of the company had been out around the air show talking about the MAX maybe getting to 42 a month by the end of the year. I mean, is that the official plan? Or can you talk about that?

也許只是一些、一些最後的後續行動或尚未被詢問的事情。該公司的領導層曾在航展上談論過 MAX 到年底可能會達到每月 42 架。我的意思是，這是官方計劃嗎？或者你能談談這個嗎？

Pricing, the checks that we have access to are saying that new aircraft pricing is up a double-digit percentage compared to pre-pandemic. Is that what you're seeing?

定價方面，我們獲得的檢查表明，與大流行前相比，新飛機的定價上漲了兩位數。這就是你所看到的嗎？

And then in the defense margin next year, with the way you see the milestones laying out and the progress on the cost that you're going after, can you have some reasonable low to mid-single-digit margin in the defense business next year? Or is that 2025 plan more back-end loaded?

然後在明年的國防利潤方面，根據您所看到的里程碑佈局以及您所追求的成本進展，您明年的國防業務能否獲得一些合理的低至中個位數的利潤率？或者 2025 年計劃是否有更多後端負載？

So I'll take the last one. Our defense margins have to get better next year, period, full stop. I won't guess in terms of at what level, but they got to get better as we go in the trajectory to that '25, '26 time frame.

所以我就拿最後一張。明年我們的防守利潤必須變得更好，句號。我不會猜測會達到什麼水平，但隨著我們進入 25、26 年時間框架，他們必須變得更好。

And as it pertains to that 42 number, we're talking about 38 today and happy to talk about 38. There's a master schedule that the supply chain has, and they know all those rate breaks. And we'll talk about that more specifically when we want to move to it. But there's no confusion about where the next rate breaks are. We just want to (inaudible) focused on one, the 38 and then as Dave mentioned, the preparation for the entire supply chain to get to a number of 50 in that '25, '26 time frame. As Dave mentioned, that's where most of the focus is. All those interim breaks, they'll be what they are. And we'll get excited to get to them as we have stability from one point to another.

由於它涉及 42 個數字，我們今天談論的是 38，並且很高興談論 38。供應鏈有一個主時間表，他們知道所有這些利率優惠。當我們想要轉向它時，我們會更具體地討論這個問題。但對於下一次利率下調的地點，人們並不感到困惑。我們只想（聽不清）專注於其中一個，即 38 個，然後正如 Dave 提到的，為整個供應鏈做好準備，以便在 25 年、26 年的時間範圍內達到 50 個。正如戴夫提到的，這就是最受關注的地方。所有這些臨時休息，它們都會是這樣的。我們會很高興能夠接觸到他們，因為我們從一個點到另一個點都很穩定。

And the good news is I'm not surprised at all that our team is conveying those messages. I'm not surprised because we're all in that prep mode.

好消息是，我對我們的團隊傳達這些信息並不感到驚訝。我並不感到驚訝，因為我們都處於準備模式。

Okay. And anything you could say on current realized aircraft pricing?

好的。對於目前飛機的實際定價，您有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes, I can't -- I'm not going to give you any specific numbers. Let me just say that the industry is short of airplanes by a reasonably large margin. Boy, do we compete, I'll tell you that, for every one of these orders because they're big and they're important. But as you might expect in a constrained market, things probably get better.

是的，我不能——我不會給你任何具體的數字。我只想說，這個行業的飛機短缺程度相當大。男孩，我會告訴你，對於每一個訂單，我們都會競爭，因為它們很大而且很重要。但正如您所期望的那樣，在市場受限的情況下，情況可能會變得更好。

And that concludes our second quarter earnings call. Thank you for joining.

我們的第二季度財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for joining Boeing's Company's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您參加波音公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。