波音 (BA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and the slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待。大家好，歡迎參加波音公司2023年第一季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音中。管理層討論、幻燈片演示以及分析師問答環節都將透過網路進行直播。 （操作員指示）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for Boeing. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

現在，我將把開場致詞和介紹環節交給波音公司投資者關係副總裁馬特·韋爾奇先生。韋爾奇先生，請開始。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Boeing's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation at boeing.com. As always, detailed financial information is included in today's press release.

謝謝大家，早安！歡迎參加波音2023年第一季財報電話會議。我是馬特·韋爾奇，今天與我一起出席的還有波音總裁兼執行長戴夫·卡爾霍恩和波音執行副總裁兼財務長布萊恩·韋斯特。小提醒：您可以在boeing.com網站上關註今天的直播和幻燈片簡報。與往常一樣，詳細的財務資訊包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Furthermore, projections, estimates and goals included in today's discussion involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of the web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

此外，今天討論中涉及的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件以及網頁簡報末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中所述的風險。此外，請參閱我們的收益報告和簡報，以了解某些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的揭露和對帳。

Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給戴夫·卡爾霍恩。

Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had a solid first quarter, and we continue to make real progress, steady progress in our recovery. Challenges remain. There's more to do. But overall, we feel good about the operational and financial outlook shared last November, including cash flow and delivery ranges set for 2023 as well as for the 2025, 2026 time frame, where we can see $10 billion in annual free cash flow.

謝謝，馬特。大家早安，感謝你們的參與。我們第一季表現穩健，並且持續取得實質進展，在經濟復甦的道路上穩步前進。挑戰依然存在，我們還有很多工作要做。但總體而言，我們對去年11月分享的營運和財務展望感到滿意，包括2023年以及2025年、2026年設定的現金流和交付目標，屆時我們預計將實現每年100億美元的自由現金流。

Let's start with an update on our 737. Our team has been working hard over the last week. We've been progressing in our early inspection of affected airplanes. The issue's understood. It's isolated to two specific fittings, and we know what we have to do.

首先，讓我們來介紹一下我們737的最新情況。我們的團隊在過去一周一直在努力工作。我們對受影響飛機的早期檢查取得了進展。問題已經了解。它只涉及兩個特定的配件，我們知道該怎麼做。

The work will impact the timing of our deliveries over the next several months. However, we still expect to deliver 450 737 airplanes this year. Unfortunately, the timing of these delivery shortfalls will impact summer capacities for many of our customers, and we feel terrible about that. Deliveries and production will be lower near term, but we will recover over the coming months, and we plan to increase our rate to 38 per month later this year.

這項工作將影響我們未來幾個月的交付時間。不過，我們預計今年仍將交付450架737飛機。遺憾的是，這些交付不足的時間將影響我們許多客戶的夏季運力，我們對此深感憂慮。短期內交付量和產量將有所下降，但我們將在未來幾個月內恢復，並計劃在今年稍後將交付率提高到每月38架。

As mentioned last week, we're also not changing the supplier master schedule to ensure that they can keep pace, and we're comfortable adding parts inventory. Stepping back, we appreciate that Spirit promptly notified us of this issue. They're an important partner. We're working closely on the recovery plan, and we are working in a very constructive way.

正如上週所提到的，我們也不會更改供應商主計劃，以確保他們能夠跟上進度，並且我們樂意增加零件庫存。回顧過去，我們很感激Spirit及時通知我們這個問題。他們是我們重要的合作夥伴。我們正在密切合作制定恢復計劃，並且我們的工作方式非常有建設性。

We will continue to work transparently with the FAA as always. As well, we will work transparently with our customers to support their fleet planning and scheduling requirements. As we mentioned last week, there's no immediate safety of flight issue, and the fleet can continue to operate safely. We will work diligently through this process together. We will prioritize safety. We will prioritize quality and transparency every step of the way.

我們將一如既往地與美國聯邦航空管理局保持透明的合作。此外，我們也將與客戶保持透明的合作，以支援他們的機隊規劃和調度需求。正如我們上週提到的，目前不存在飛行安全問題，機隊可以繼續安全運作。我們將共同努力完成這項過程。我們將優先考慮安全。我們將在整個過程中始終將品質和透明度放在首位。

Taking a wider view. I couldn't be more proud of the MAX team and the progress that we have made. We now have over 1,000 737 MAX airplanes flying in the fleet. And since our return to service, the fleet has safely flown more than 4 million flight hours with exceptional reliability.

從更廣闊的視角來看，我為 737 MAX 團隊以及我們所取得的進展感到無比自豪。目前，我們的機隊中共有超過 1000 架 737 MAX 飛機在服役。自恢復運作以來，機隊已安全飛行超過 400 萬飛行小時，可靠性卓越。

And with respect to China, our focus has been and is on supporting our customers and their return to service. All MAX operators have returned to flying airplanes in service, and 45 of their 95 airplanes are back in the sky.

就中國市場而言，我們的工作重點始終是支援客戶恢復營運。所有 MAX 飛機的營運商都已恢復運營，其 95 架飛機中已有 45 架重返藍天。

In addition, the CAAC released their 737 Aircraft Evaluation Report. It's an important step toward the delivery of aircraft that are currently in Boeing's possession. We will follow the lead of our customers.

此外，中國民航局發布了737飛機評估報告。這是波音公司向交付現有飛機邁出的重要一步。我們將遵循客戶的指引。

Moving to BCA. I'll start with orders. Demand remains very strong across all of our product lines. We booked 107 net airplane orders in the first quarter. And on top of this, we were proud to announce major customer commitments earlier this year: Air India, 190 737 MAX, 20 787s and 10 777Xs; and Riyadh Air, the newly established airline in Saudi Arabia; and Saudia, ordering up to 121 787 airplanes.

談談BCA。我先從訂單說起。我們所有產品線的需求都保持強勁。第一季度，我們淨訂購了107架飛機。除此之外，我們在今年稍早也自豪地宣布了幾個主要客戶的承諾：印度航空，190架737 MAX、20架787和10架777X；沙烏地阿拉伯新成立的航空公司利雅得航空；以及沙烏地阿拉伯航空，訂購了多達121架787飛機。

On the subject of deliveries, with strong demand, we're working to meet our customer commitments. We delivered 130 commercial airplanes in the quarter, including a strong month in March with 64 deliveries. However, variation in monthly deliveries remains high, and we still have work to improve stability. Of course, that starts with the 737, as I mentioned earlier.

關於交付，由於需求強勁，我們正在努力履行對客戶的承諾。本季我們交付了130架商用飛機，其中3月表現強勁，交付了64架。然而，月度交付量差異仍然很大，我們仍在努力提高穩定性。當然，正如我之前提到的，這首先要從737開始。

On the subject of production, we are also steadily increasing rates across key programs to meet the robust demand. And we'll prioritize our stability and not push the system too fast. And yes, we will pause when we are notified of defects.

在生產方面，我們也正在穩步提高關鍵項目的產量，以滿足強勁的需求。我們將優先考慮穩定性，不會過快地推進系統。是的，一旦收到缺陷通知，我們就會暫停生產。

On development, we're progressing across all of our key development programs. And certification time lines have not changed on the 737-7, -10 or the 777X.

在開發方面，我們所有關鍵開發專案都在取得進展。 737-7、737-10 和 777X 的認證時間表沒有變更。

Now let me switch to BDS, Boeing Defense. In defense and space, we still have more work to do to improve our operating performance. But our portfolio is well positioned, and our products are performing well in the field.

現在讓我談談波音防務部門（BDS）。在國防和航太領域，我們仍需付出更多努力來提升營運績效。但我們的產品組合定位良好，我們的產品在該領域也表現良好。

First quarter results were impacted by the added cost on the KC-46A Tanker program, driven by a supplier quality issue that we previously shared last month. The good news is we understand it, and we're progressing through that rework.

第一季業績受到KC-46A加油機專案成本增加的影響，而這部分成本的增加源自於我們上個月分享的供應商品質問題。好消息是，我們已了解情況，並且正在努力改進。

On the operational side, the tanker is continuing to perform its mission well. Customers' decision on the KC-Y is a great opportunity for us, and it reflects the capabilities the tanker is delivering for the United States Air Force.

在作戰方面，該加油機繼續出色地執行其任務。客戶選擇KC-Y對我們來說是個絕佳的機會，也體現了加油機為美國空軍提供的能力。

On the demand side, we're continuing to see solid order activity. In the quarter, we booked key orders on the tanker, the Apache and E-7. In addition, we are accelerating the delivery of missiles and weapons in response to our customers' needs.

在需求方面，我們的訂單活動持續強勁。本季度，我們獲得了加油機、阿帕契和E-7直升機的關鍵訂單。此外，我們正在加快導彈和武器的交付，以滿足客戶的需求。

We're also encouraged by the initial presidential budget request recently released. It's in line with our expectations. And our portfolio and capabilities are well positioned to support the needs of the nation and our allies, both in the short and the long term. Our defense business is well positioned, and we'll continue to improve operational performance to more normalized levels.

我們也對最近發布的總統初步預算請求感到鼓舞。它符合我們的預期。我們的業務組合和能力已做好準備，能夠滿足國家和盟友的短期和長期需求。我們的國防業務已做好準備，我們將繼續提升營運績效，使其達到更正常的水平。

In Boeing Global Services, another very strong quarter. Solid, steady performance has enabled both commercial and military customers to keep fleets flying through a very dynamic time. The services business has now fully returned to pre-pandemic levels. I'm very proud of the team and the progress that they have made.

波音全球服務公司本季業績表現強勁。穩健的業績使商用和軍用客戶能夠維持機隊在瞬息萬變的時期正常飛行。服務業務現已完全恢復到疫情前的水準。我為我們的團隊以及他們所取得的進步感到非常自豪。

All things considered across the businesses, we remain on the right path. We'll work through most recent MAX issue transparently and in partnership with our customers and our suppliers. We're focused on the long term, and we'll continue to drive stability across the business and the supply chain.

綜觀各業務領域，我們仍走在正確的道路上。我們將以透明的方式，與客戶和供應商合作，共同解決最近的MAX問題。我們著眼於長遠發展，並將繼續推動整個業務和供應鏈的穩定。

In our November guidance, we did not predict significant supply chain improvement until well into 2024. We remain in the same place today and share that same view. That said, we've seen improvement, and our line of sight is getting better every day. Demand is strong and our portfolio is well positioned. We have a robust pipeline of development programs, and we're innovating in new capabilities to prepare for the next generation of products.

在11月的業績指引中，我們預測供應鏈要到2024年才會顯著改善。如今，我們依然保持著同樣的預期。即便如此，我們也看到了改善，而且我們的視野每天都在不斷改進。需求強勁，我們的產品組合也處於有利地位。我們擁有強大的開發項目儲備，並且正在創新新功能，為下一代產品做好準備。

Lots of work to do, but we're on track to restore our operational and our financial strength. And we still feel good about the outlook that we've shared, both for this year and for our longer term.

雖然還有很多工作要做，但我們正在穩步恢復營運和財務實力。我們仍然對我們之前分享的今年和長期前景感到樂觀。

With that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給 Brian。

Great. Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Let's go to the next page and cover the total company results. First quarter revenue was $17.9 billion. That's up 28% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher volume in both commercial and defense.

太好了。謝謝，戴夫，大家早安。我們進入下一頁，介紹一下公司的整體表現。第一季營收為179億美元，年增28%，主要得益於商用和國防業務的銷售成長。

Core operating margin was minus 2.5%, and the core loss per share was $1.27, both big improvements versus last year due to higher commercial volume and improved operating performance. Margins and EPS were negative driven by expected abnormal costs and period expenses as well as a charge on the KC-46 Tanker program that I noted last month.

核心營業利益率為-2.5%，每股核心虧損為1.27美元，由於商業交易量增加及營運績效改善，較去年同期均大幅改善。利潤率和每股盈餘為負值，主要受預期異常成本、期間費用以及我上個月提到的KC-46加油機專案費用的影響。

Free cash flow was a usage of $786 million in the quarter, significantly better versus last year driven by the higher commercial deliveries as well as an advanced payment tied to lot 9 on the tanker program, another important award for the KC-46 franchise. As we noted in our last earnings call, cash was lower this quarter than the fourth quarter due to lower wide-body deliveries and expected seasonality.

本季自由現金流使用量為7.86億美元，較去年同期大幅成長，這得益於商業飛機交付量的增加以及與加油機項目第9批訂單相關的預付款，這是KC-46專營權的另一項重要合約。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所指出的，由於寬體飛機交付量下降以及預期的季節性因素，本季的現金流量低於第四季。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover Commercial Airplanes. Let's start with orders. BCA booked 107 net orders in the quarter, including JAL and Lufthansa, and we have a backlog of over 4,500 airplanes valued at $334 billion.

下一頁我將介紹商用飛機業務。我們先從訂單開始。 BCA 本季淨訂單量達 107 架，包括日航和漢莎航空，我們的積壓飛機訂單超過 4,500 架，價值 3,340 億美元。

Moving to the figures on the left. Revenue was $6.7 billion, up 60% year-over-year, driven by 130 airplane deliveries with increases on both the 87 and the 37 programs, partially offset by 87 customer considerations. Operating margin was minus 9.2%, which was significantly better than last year. But margins are impacted by expected abnormal costs and period expenses, including higher R&D spending.

再來看左邊的數據。營收為67億美元，年增60%，這得益於130架飛機的交付，其中87架飛機和37架飛機項目的交付量均有所增長，但部分抵消了87架飛機的客戶意向。營業利益率為-9.2%，明顯優於去年。但利潤率受到預期異常成本和期間費用（包括研發支出增加）的影響。

Let's take a minute on the 737 program. The 37 had 113 deliveries in the first quarter, up 31% year-over-year, including 53 deliveries in the month of March.

我們來聊聊737專案。 737飛機第一季交付113架，年增31%，其中3月交付53架。

Picking up where Dave left off regarding the supplier fuselage item. We found the issue. We booked a nonmaterial financial impact in the quarter. We understand the rework steps required, and we started repairs on several airplanes. And although near-term deliveries will be impacted, we still expect to deliver between 400 and 450 737s this year.

繼續談戴夫關於供應商機身項目的問題。我們發現了這個問題。我們在本季記錄了非實質的財務影響。我們了解了返工所需的步驟，並已開始對幾架飛機進行維修。儘管近期交付將受到影響，但我們預計今年仍將交付400至450架737飛機。

April and 2Q deliveries will be lower, but the first half monthly average will be about 30 airplanes per month, in line with what we said previously. The second half deliveries are expected to be around 40 per month, with sequential quarterly improvement in the back half. While the high end of the delivery range is pressured, ultimate performance will be dictated by the pace of the fuselage recovery.

4月份和第二季的交付量將有所下降，但上半年月均交付量約為30架，與我們先前的預測一致。預計下半年每月均交量約40架，下半年交屋量將較上月改善。雖然交付量上限面臨壓力，但最終業績將取決於機身復甦的速度。

Regarding inventory, we ended the quarter with approximately 225 MAX airplanes in inventory, including 138 that were built for customers in China and roughly 30 -7s and -10s. Within these 225 inventoried airplanes, roughly 75% will require the fuselage rework. And the number of inventoried airplanes will likely increase in 2Q, and we still expect most to be delivered by the end of 2024.

關於庫存，本季末，我們庫存約有225架MAX飛機，其中包括138架為中國客戶製造的飛機，以及約30架MAX-7和MAX-10。在這225架庫存飛機中，約75%需要進行機身返工。庫存飛機數量在第二季度可能會增加，我們仍然預計大部分飛機將在2024年底前交付。

On production, we're completing airplanes in final assembly and expect to recover in the coming months, paced by fuselage availability. We're supporting Spirit through this recovery, including manufacturing and engineering resources as well as a cash advance. To support overall supply chain stability, we're not changing the master schedule, including anticipated production rate increases and we've contemplated any near-term parts inventory builds into our forward look.

生產方面，我們正在完成飛機的組裝，預計未來幾個月將根據機身供應情況逐步恢復。我們將為Spirit航空的復甦提供支持，包括提供製造和工程資源以及現金墊款。為了支持整體供應鏈的穩定，我們不會更改主計劃，包括預期的生產率提升，並且我們已將任何近期零件庫存的增加納入我們的未來規劃。

Within final assembly, as Dave mentioned, we expect to increase our rate to 38 per month later this year and 50 per month in the '25, '26 time frame.

在最終組裝過程中，正如戴夫所提到的，我們預計今年稍後我們的生產力將提高到每月 38 台，在 25、26 年期間提高到每月 50 台。

Moving on to the 787 program. We had 11 deliveries in the first quarter and still expect 70 to 80 deliveries this year. We're producing at 3 per month and still plan to reach 5 per month by year-end. We ended the quarter with 95 airplanes in inventory, most of which will be delivered by the end of 2024.

繼續討論787項目。我們第一季交付了11架飛機，預計今年仍將交付70至80架。目前我們每月生產3架飛機，並計劃在年底達到每月5架。截至本季末，我們庫存飛機數量為95架，其中大部分將於2024年底交付。

We booked 379 of abnormal costs in the quarter, in line with expectations, and there's no change to the total estimate of $2.8 billion. We still expect abnormal to be largely done by the end of this year.

本季我們提列了379億美元的非正常成本，符合預期，28億美元的總預估維持不變。我們仍然預計非正常成本將在今年年底前基本完成。

Finally, on the 777X program, efforts are ongoing. Both the program time line and the abnormal estimate of $1.5 billion are unchanged. We booked $126 million of abnormal costs in the quarter, in line with expectations.

最後，關於777X項目，各項工作仍在進行中。項目時間表和15億美元的非正常成本估算均保持不變。本季我們提列了1.26億美元的非正常成本，符合預期。

With that, let's turn to the next page and go through defense and space. BDS booked $10 billion in orders during the quarter, including awards for the U.S. Air Force for 15 KC-46 Tankers and an E-7 development contract as well as 184 Apaches for the U.S. Army. The BDS backlog is $58 billion.

接下來，我們來看看國防和太空領域。 BDS在本季度獲得了100億美元的訂單，其中包括授予美國空軍的15架KC-46加油機和一份E-7開發合同，以及授予美國陸軍的184架阿帕奇直升機。 BDS的訂單積壓金額為580億美元。

Moving to the figures on the left. Revenue was $6.5 billion, up 19% year-over-year, driven by the KC-46 Tanker award, program milestone completions and underlying volume. We delivered 39 aircraft and 3 satellites in the quarter and also began production of the MH-139 Grey Wolf.

再來看看左邊的數字。營收為65億美元，年增19%，這得益於KC-46加油機合約、專案里程碑的完成以及基本產量。本季我們交付了39架飛機和3顆衛星，並開始生產MH-139「灰狼」運輸機。

Operating margin was minus 3.2%, significantly higher than last year but still negative, driven by a $245 million pretax charge on the tanker program, which I noted last month.

營業利潤率為負 3.2%，雖然比去年同期高出不少，但仍為負，這是由於油輪項目稅前費用為 2.45 億美元，我上個月就提到過這一點。

Let me give you a little bit of context on the overall BDS portfolio. Remember, 15% of the revenues in the quarter are the firm fixed-price development contracts. These contracts get a lot of attention, and there is a commitment to derisk these programs as much as we can as we move through the development cycles and into full-scale, stable production.

我先簡單介紹一下BDS的整體產品組合。記住，本季15%的收入來自固定價格開發合約。這些合約備受關注，我們承諾在開發週期推進到全面穩定生產的過程中，盡可能降低這些項目的風險。

Next and importantly, over 60% of revenues in the quarter collectively delivered double-digit margins. We have many important programs that are performing to historical performance levels.

其次，重要的是，本季超過60%的營收實現了兩位數的利潤率。我們許多重要項目的表現都達到了歷史最高水準。

The balance of the 1Q revenue is made up of a small number of established programs that are experiencing negative margins on certain contracts due to specific near-term supply chain and factory stability pressures that we've highlighted previously. It will take time to work through these issues, and we fully expect that these programs will improve through the course of this year and return to normal margin levels over time.

第一季的剩餘收入來自少數已完成的項目，這些項目由於我們先前強調的特定短期供應鏈和工廠穩定性壓力，在某些合約中出現了負利潤率。解決這些問題需要時間，我們完全相信這些項目的情況將在今年內得到改善，並隨著時間的推移恢復到正常的利潤率水平。

The BDS team is fully committed delivering the development programs to our customers. We've implemented new contracting disciplines, accelerated efforts around lean manufacturing and we're investing in innovation and in our people, all of which underpin our plans going forward.

BDS團隊全心全意為客戶提供開發案。我們實施了新的合約規範，加快了精益製造的步伐，並加大了對創新和人才的投資，所有這些都是我們未來計劃的基礎。

Overall, the defense portfolio is well positioned. There's strong demand across the customer base, the products are performing in the field, and we're confident that our efforts to drive execution and stability will return this business to performance levels that our investors would recognize.

整體而言，國防業務組合處於有利地位。客戶群需求強勁，產品在實際應用中表現出色，我們相信，透過提升執行力和穩定性，該業務將恢復到投資者認可的績效水準。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover Global Services. As Dave mentioned, BGS had another very strong quarter. We received $4 billion in orders during the quarter, and the backlog is $19 billion.

下一頁，我將介紹全球服務業務。正如戴夫所提到的，BGS 又一個季度表現非常強勁。本季我們收到了 40 億美元的訂單，積壓訂單金額達到 190 億美元。

Looking to the figures on the left. Revenue was $4.7 billion, up 9% year-over-year, primarily driven by our commercial parts and distribution business. Operating margin was 17.9%, an expansion of 330 basis points versus last year, with both our commercial and government businesses delivering double-digit margins. Operating margins in the quarter were higher than expected due to favorable mix, and we don't assume that will repeat.

請看左側數據。營收為47億美元，年增9%，主要得益於商用零件和分銷業務。營業利益率為17.9%，較去年同期成長330個基點，其中商用和政府業務均實現了兩位數的利潤率。由於產品組合良好，本季營業利潤率高於預期，我們認為這種情況不會再次出現。

In the quarter, BGS announced the first Boeing Converted Freighter line in India, delivered AerCap's 50th 737-800 Boeing Converted Freighter and broke ground on a new component operations facility in Jacksonville, Florida.

本季度，BGS 宣佈在印度推出第一條波音改裝貨機生產線，交付 AerCap 的第 50 架 737-800 波音改裝貨機，並在佛羅裡達州傑克遜維爾破土動工建設新的零件營運工廠。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover cash and debt. We ended the quarter with $14.8 billion of cash and marketable securities, and our debt balance decreased to $55.4 billion. We paid down $1.7 billion of debt maturities in the quarter and absorbed the expected cash flow usage driven by seasonality. We also had $12 billion of revolving credit facilities at the end of the quarter, all of which remain undrawn.

下一頁我將討論現金和債務。本季末，我們持有148億美元的現金和有價證券，債務餘額降至554億美元。我們在本季償還了17億美元的到期債務，並吸收了季節性因素帶來的預期現金流使用。截至本季末，我們還有120億美元的循環信貸額度，目前均未動用。

Our liquidity position is very strong. The investment-grade credit rating is a priority, and we're deploying capital in line with the priorities we've shared: generate strong cash flow, invest the business and pay down debt.

我們的流動性狀況非常強勁。投資等級信用評級是我們優先考慮的因素，我們正在按照我們共同的優先事項部署資本：創造強勁的現金流、投資業務並償還債務。

And flipping to the last page on our outlook. The 2023 financial outlook is unchanged from what we previously shared, including $3 billion to $5 billion of free cash flow generation. Commercial demand remains strong across our key programs and services. Passenger traffic in February increased over 55% year-over-year and is at 85% of pre-pandemic levels, comprised (inaudible) domestic and 78% international. Defense demand is robust, and the initial FY '24 presidential budget is in line with expectations. As Dave mentioned, our portfolio and capabilities are well positioned to support the needs of the nation and of our allies.

翻到我們展望的最後一頁。 2023年的財務展望與我們先前分享的一致，包括30億至50億美元的自由現金流。我們主要項目和服務的商業需求依然強勁。 2月客運量年增超過55%，達到疫情前水準的85%，其中（聽不清楚）國內客運及78%的國際客運。國防需求強勁，2024財年初步總統預算符合預期。正如戴夫所提到的，我們的產品組合和能力已做好準備，能夠滿足國家和盟友的需求。

On the supply chain front, as you'll recall when we set out our 2023 framework last November, we predicted the supply chain instability would likely continue. The good news is that we plan for it within our financial and delivery guidance. There's progress in many areas of the supply base, but we will likely face pockets of variability through the rest of this year. We continue to make key investments, including higher inventory buffers and forward deployment of resources as we take appropriate actions to mitigate impacts and improve predictability.

在供應鏈方面，各位應該還記得，去年11月我們制定2023年框架時，我們預測供應鏈的不穩定狀況可能會持續下去。好消息是，我們已經在財務和交付指引中對此進行了規劃。供應基礎的許多領域都取得了進展，但在今年剩餘時間裡，我們可能會面臨一些波動。我們將繼續進行關鍵投資，包括提高庫存緩衝和提前部署資源，同時採取適當措施來減輕影響並提高可預測性。

From a quarterly perspective, we continue to expect financials to improve throughout the year. On 2Q specifically, we expect core EPS will be roughly in line with 1Q '23 performance absent the tanker charge, as the 737 delivery impacts would be largely offset by higher wide-body deliveries.

從季度角度來看，我們預計全年財務狀況將持續改善。具體到第二季度，我們預計核心每股收益將與2023年第一季（不計加油機費用）基本持平，因為737交付的影響將在很大程度上被寬體飛機交付量的增加所抵消。

We expect free cash flow to be breakeven to slightly negative as we work through the 37 recovery. All things considered, we feel good about what's in front of us. And we remain on track to achieve our long-term guidance, including $10 billion of free cash flow in the '25, '26 time frame.

我們預計，在2027年復甦的過程中，自由現金流將達到損益兩平或略為負。綜合考慮，我們對未來的發展充滿信心。我們仍有望實現長期目標，包括在2025年和2026年期間實現100億美元的自由現金流。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave for any closing comments.

至此，我將把時間交給戴夫，讓他發表最後的評論。

Yes, not much to add. Just a reminder that in November, when we did finally set out guidance for all of our investors, we described an environment that would continue to be strained through 2023 and through most of 2024. We still see the world exactly that way. Demand is as robust, if not more than what we had thought back in November, and so we remain confident.

是的，沒什麼好補充的。只是提醒一下，去年11月，當我們最終為所有投資者制定指引時，我們描述了一個將在2023年以及2024年大部分時間持續緊張的環境。我們仍然如此看待世界。需求依然強勁，甚至比我們11月的預期還要強勁，因此我們仍然充滿信心。

So thanks for your time, and let's take some questions.

感謝您抽出時間，讓我們來回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Dave, the quality slip or escape at Spirit, it sounds like it's been going on for several years actually. So I think the natural question we've been getting is, why did it take so long to discover? And how should we be comfortable that things like this won't continue to pop up, particularly with the FAA's sort of renewed zero tolerance for noncompliant deliveries?

戴夫，精神航空的品質問題，或者說逃逸，聽起來好像已經持續了好幾年了。所以，我想我們自然會問，為什麼花了這麼長時間才發現？我們該如何確保類似的事情不會繼續發生，尤其是在美國聯邦航空管理局（FAA）對不合規交付再次採取零容忍政策的情況下？

Yes, Myles, I appreciate the question. This particular defect, I happen to take a look at it, by the way, along with the rest of my Board. We happen to have our shareowner meeting shortly after the issue came to our attention.

是的，邁爾斯，我很感謝你的提問。順便說一下，我碰巧和董事會其他成員一起檢查了這個缺陷。我們注意到這個問題後不久就召開了股東大會。

It's not only a defect. It's in that app section of our airplane and very difficult to visibly assess. In fact, it's impossible to visibly assess once the process to do it is complete. So without witnessing firsthand that process in action, you're not likely to find it from that point forward. It's -- process was not standard. And importantly, there was a ceiling that was applied on top of the fitting that made it impossible to notice any cracks.

這不僅僅是一個缺陷。它存在於我們飛機的應用程式部分，很難直觀地評估。事實上，一旦流程完成，就不可能直觀地評估。所以，如果你沒有親眼目睹整個流程，你很可能從那時起就無法發現它。這——流程不標準。而且重要的是，配件上方有一個天花板，讓人無法察覺任何裂縫。

So it's just one of those. Again, no safety implications. The margins in our designs provide for significantly greater safety protection. So anyway, I don't ever accept and I hope you don't think we might ever accept that where these things go on, but this one, in particular, very, very difficult, no matter how many people you put in the field or that Spirit puts out there to see.

所以這只是其中之一。再說一次，這不涉及安全問題。我們設計中的餘裕提供了顯著更高的安全保護。總之，我永遠不會接受，我希望你也不要認為我們可能永遠不會接受這種情況，但這次尤其非常非常困難，無論你派多少人去現場，無論「精神號」派多少人去現場觀察。

Anyway, the good news is we've now been through the unveiling of the issue. We've been through the rework procedures, both on the captured fuselages in our factory that have not yet gone through the subsequent stages. And we've already looked at finished good airplanes where we have to remove the fin in order to get at it.

無論如何，好消息是，我們現在已經發現了這個問題。我們已經完成了返工程序，包括我們工廠中繳獲的、尚未進入後續階段的機身。我們也已經檢查過一些成品飛機，需要拆除尾翼才能拿到尾翼。

And these are all now defined work scopes. And now we just get more efficient in the process of doing that reworking. That's why we're confident in our guidance. But again, we don't accept them. They are, without a doubt, over time, becoming more manageable. And things like this, I will celebrate the fact that an employee witnessed the procedure and raised his hand and said, "That doesn't look right." That is the only way that we would have ultimately found out about it. And I'm encouraging everybody in our supply chain, if they see something of that sort, to raise their hand.

現在這些都已經明確了工作範圍。現在，我們在返工過程中效率更高了。這就是為什麼我們對我們的指導充滿信心。但再次強調，我們不會接受這些建議。毫無疑問，隨著時間的推移，這些建議會變得更容易管理。像這樣的事情，如果員工目睹了整個過程，並舉手說“看起來不對勁”，我會感到欣慰。這是我們最終發現問題的唯一方法。我鼓勵我們供應鏈中的每個人，如果看到類似情況，請舉手。

The next question is from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe how do we think about BCA margins going forward? How do we think about the production trajectory of your impact, concessions historically in aircraft and inventory impacting BCA margins?

我們如何看待未來的BCA利潤率？我們如何看待你們的生產軌跡、歷史上飛機和庫存方面的優惠對BCA利潤率的影響？

Yes. Thanks, Sheila, for the question. Broadly speaking, as we've said, margins will be a bit volatile this year and the next as we do a couple of big things. First, we got to liquidate the 37 and 87 inventory levels as well as shutting down those shadow factories. We also have to move through the abnormal expenses on the 87, the 777 and then prepare to ramp rates. So it will be a little up and down as we move through and get out and get out of next year.

是的。謝謝希拉的提問。總的來說，正如我們之前所說，由於我們做了幾件大事，今年和明年的利潤率會有些波動。首先，我們必須清理37和87的庫存，並關閉那些影子工廠。我們還必須處理87和777的異常費用，然後準備提高利率。所以，隨著我們明年的推進和結束，利潤率會略有波動。

In terms of the near term, I did indicate last month that the first quarter BCA margins would be lower than fourth quarter, and that's for things like the abnormal and things like the lower volume. 2Q will also be negative. But as we move into the back half of the year, the margins will improve. And of course, as Dave mentioned, by the time we get to '25, '26, we still see a path to get BCA back to the double-digit margins that you all recognize. So we got to work through what's in front of us. It's clearly defined, and we just got to execute.

就短期而言，我上個月確實指出，第一季的BCA利潤率將低於第四季度，這主要是由於異常情況和銷售下降等因素。第二季的利潤率也將為負。但隨著下半年的到來，利潤率將會提高。當然，正如戴夫所說，到2025年、2026年，我們仍然有希望讓BCA回到你們都認可的兩位數利潤率。所以我們必須努力解決眼前的問題。目標已經明確，我們只需付諸行動。

The next question is from Doug Harned from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Doug Harned。

On the 787, you're on the path to reach 5 a month in Q4 and then go to 10 a month in '25, '26. And you've also had some discussions that the rate could potentially go higher longer term. Now this is all being done in Charleston. And if we go back a few years, the maximum capacity at Charleston was 7 a month.

787 的計畫是，第四季達到每月 5 架，2025、2026 年達到每月 10 架。而且，你們也討論過，長期來看，運力可能會更高。現在，查爾斯頓機場正在實施這些措施。回顧幾年前，查爾斯頓機場的最大運能是每月 7 架。

So as you go to 10 per month there or higher, what do you need to do in terms of investment? And how would you expect margins for the 787 out of a single facility then compared to what they were before the downturn when you were operating out of both Everett and Charleston?

那麼，當你們的產量達到每月10架甚至更高時，你們在投資上需要做些什麼？與經濟衰退之前你們在埃弗雷特和查爾斯頓同時運作時的利潤率相比，你預計單一工廠787的利潤率會如何？

So let me start from the back end and work my way toward the front end. As you might imagine, when you go from 2 to 1 and you optimize that 1 and you don't transport parts from one to another, you expect higher margins, and we do, and I'm confident we will achieve that.

所以，讓我從後端開始，逐步講到前端。正如你們可以想像的，當你從2個工廠變成1個工廠，並且優化了1個工廠，不再需要將零件從一個工廠運送到另一個工廠時，你期望的利潤率會更高，我們也確實如此，而且我相信我們能夠實現這一目標。

With respect to investment, this has a lot less to do with physical investment in equipment and more to do with how we route things through that factory. Today, our factory is pretty constrained because we have this joint verification effort that has taken up lots of space, both inside the factory and we continue to do that workup up in Everett.

就投資而言，這與設備實體投資關係不大，而更與工廠的物流流程有關。目前，我們工廠的運作相當受限，因為我們的聯合驗證工作佔用了大量空間，包括工廠內部以及我們仍在埃弗雷特進行的驗證工作。

So we have got to work our way through that. We have a team that works full time planning the new routings in the factories, and we're confident we can get it to 10. I don't think -- not only don't think, we don't see a big demand on investment to get us from what you noted as 7 to 10. So it's just going to take us time, and we've got to remove that joint verification effort from our business.

所以我們必須想辦法解決這個問題。我們有一個團隊全職負責規劃工廠的新製程路線，我們有信心把工廠數量增加到10個。我不認為——不僅不認為，而且我們認為從您提到的7個增加到10個，並不需要很大的投資需求。所以這需要時間，我們必須把聯合驗證工作從我們的業務中移除。

And Doug, as it turns to margin, on the program margin side, we fully expect by the '25, '26 time frame to have 87 margins that are higher than they were back in '18. And it will be because of things like this consolidation to Charleston.

道格，說到利潤率，就專案利潤率而言，我們完全預期到2025年和2026年，87%的利潤率將高於2018年的水準。這將歸功於查爾斯頓的整合等因素。

And also on the cash front, on the unit margin perspective, 87 margins will get better on the improved -10 content as well as the benefits that Dave described of consolidating in Charleston. So we think we've got a good plan in front of us, and we are very focused on 10. 10's the number, and there's like execution that's underwriting that.

從現金流量和單位利潤率的角度來看，87%的利潤率將會有所提升，這得益於-10的改進，以及Dave所描述的在查爾斯頓進行整合所帶來的好處。因此，我們認為我們已經制定了一個很好的計劃，並且我們非常專注於10。10是一個數字，而執行力正是支撐這一目標的關鍵。

The next question is from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Wanted to try to ask about the 737 pace in the near term and then also in the medium term between now and the plan you've outlined for '25. So I guess, how many units are somewhere in process somewhere in a factory? It seems like those need to be reworked before you could then restart to sort of clean off the line units.

我想問737的近期生產進度，以及從現在到您概述的2025年計畫的中期生產進度。那麼，我想問一下，工廠裡有多少零件正在生產中？看起來這些部件需要返工，然後才能重新開始清理下線部件。

Brian, it sounds like the averaging 30 for the first 6 months, you kind of have implied second half of April as disrupted, May as maybe heavily disrupted, June starts to look normal again. Is that all correct?

布萊恩，聽起來前六個月的平均數據是30，你暗示4月下半月會受到干擾，5月可能會受到嚴重干擾，6月看起來會恢復正常。你說的對嗎？

And then in the medium term, in terms of the ramp, there's some reputable press talking about this 38 being close to the middle of the year, wanting to be at 42 early in '24 and wanting to be at 52 early in '25. I guess we know the demand is there. In a scenario where the supply chain is relatively consistent, is that at least what you're working towards?

那麼，就中期產量提升而言，一些知名媒體稱，38%的產量將在年中左右達到，2024年初預計達到42%，2025年初預計將達到52%。我想我們知道需求是存在的。在供應鏈相對穩定的情況下，這至少是你們努力的方向嗎？

Yes. Let's start with that back end. So we will have a plan to get to 38. In terms of subsequent ramps to higher numbers, let's let that take care of itself. Let's focus on getting to 38. And we still believe that 50 is the number in '25, '26.

是的。我們從後端開始。所以我們會訂定一個計劃，把目標定在38人。至於後續如何逐步提升，就讓它自然而然實現吧。我們專注於達到38人。我們仍然相信，25、26年的目標應該是50人。

And in terms of the near term, so in terms of what's in front of us, we know barrel by barrel in Spirit's factory and obviously, we know everyone in our factory in terms of what's got to get done. If the unit is not too far into the production -- our production cycle, the time to take to repair one of these, it's days.

就短期而言，也就是就我們面臨的情況而言，我們對 Spirit 工廠裡的每一桶油都瞭如指掌，顯然，我們也對工廠裡的每個人都瞭如指掌，知道該做什麼。如果油桶的產量還不算太高——在我們的生產週期裡，修復一桶油只需要幾天。

As you have the vertical fin on an airplane, obviously, it's more complicated, then it takes more time. But we will sort our way out. In the near term, getting back to production levels that are normal will be months.

由於飛機上有垂直尾翼，這顯然更複雜，也需要更多時間。但我們會想辦法解決。短期內，恢復正常生產水準需要幾個月的時間。

In terms of the inventory that we've described, the 225 finished goods inventory, 75% of those are going to have to have this fix. The good news is that this will not take us off our path to liquidate that inventory in the 37 of 225 by the -- largely by the time we get out of 2025. It's going to cost a little bit more. We provided for that -- 2024 rather, yes, liquidated by 2024. It will take a little bit more cost, but we factored that into our closing position in the first quarter.

就我們之前描述的庫存而言，225個成品庫存中，75%需要進行此修復。好消息是，這不會影響我們在2025年左右清算這225個庫存中的37個庫存的計畫。這需要稍微多一點的成本。我們為此做好了準備──2024年，或者說，是的，到2024年清算。這需要稍微多一點的成本，但我們在第一季的收盤價中已經考慮到了這一點。

So all in all, we think we know what's in front of us and working closely with Spirit. And as we move our way out of the short-term recovery, then we get back to an area we can start to get to the 38. And I think that the -- for us, the biggest thing is that, one, we're calling it out; and two, we have not changed the master schedule. And that's a big deal. We want to make sure that the supply chain keeps pace as we move our way through the rest of the year.

總而言之，我們認為我們知道未來會發生什麼，並且正在與Spirit航空密切合作。隨著我們逐漸擺脫短期復甦的困境，我們將回到可以開始實現38個目標的區域。我認為——對我們來說，最重要的是：第一，我們正在公開宣布；第二，我們沒有改變整體計劃。這很重要。我們希望確保供應鏈能夠跟上我們在今年剩餘時間的步伐。

Noah, on the finished goods, by the way, it's two things to keep in mind. One, we are largely through a couple of them already. So -- and we are defining the scope of that work and again, measured in a few weeks, not measured in months. And so we're confident in that.

諾亞，關於成品，順便提一下，有兩點要注意。首先，我們基本上已經完成了幾個成品。所以——我們正在確定這項工作的範圍，而且是以幾週來衡量，而不是以幾個月來衡量。所以我們對此很有信心。

But the other thing to keep in mind on the finished goods is you know we have a big conformance work scope now even without that defect. A lot of that work can get done concurrently, so it's not a pure add.

但關於成品，還有一點要注意，即使沒有那個缺陷，我們現在的一致性工作範圍也很大。很多工作可以同時完成，所以這不是純粹的添加。

Right. Right. The finished goods, it would just seem like as long as you can rework faster than you deliver, that doesn't change your pace and the deliveries were -- the percentage of deliveries from that wasn't enormous. So that makes sense. That's what I was sort of trying to get at, what's factory, but I think I better understand it now. So appreciate all that color.

對。對。成品的話，只要返工速度比交貨速度快，就似乎不會改變你的節奏，而且交付量——返工交付量佔比並不大。所以這說得通。這就是我想說的，什麼是工廠，但我想我現在更明白了。所以，欣賞所有這些色彩。

The next question is from Rob Spingarn from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

Just a quick clarification and then a question. The clarification, the production rates you're talking about, the 38, et cetera, is that Renton only? Or does that include deliveries out of inventory from Moses -- or rather production out of Moses Lake on the mods?

我先簡單澄清一下，然後再問個問題。您說的產量，例如38輛等等，是指倫頓工廠的產量嗎？還是包括摩西工廠的庫存出貨量——或者更確切地說，包括摩西湖工廠的改裝產量？

And then the question is on the pricing environment, just with the other guys sold-out on narrow-bodies and the 787 really being the strongest airplane out there on the wide-body side at least from a demand perspective, how has the pricing been on these big recent orders? And how do you

接下來的問題是關於定價環境。其他公司的窄體飛機都已售罄，而至少從需求角度來看，787 才是寬體飛機中最強大的機型。那麼，最近這些大訂單的定價如何？您如何看待？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

as we go forward here?

當我們繼續前進時？

You broke up a little bit at the end of your question on pricing. Could you just...

在價格問題結束時，您有點分心了。您能不能…

So it didn't work. Basically, I just asked you, with the sold-out conditions on the narrow-body side at Airbus, how's pricing on the MAX? And then on the wide-body side, 787 is arguably the strongest offering. So how is pricing there just given the demand situation?

所以這行不通。基本上，我剛剛問你，空中巴士窄體機已經售罄，787 MAX 的定價如何？寬體機方面，787 可以說是最強的選擇。那麼，考慮到需求情況，787 的定價如何？

Yes. Let me comment on pricing, particularly on the wide-body world. Nobody is sold-out. We're just all selling further out. So we still compete and then we -- the deliveries themselves are important competitive factor in everything that we go for and then pricing follows.

是的。我想談談定價，尤其是在寬體飛機領域。沒有人的票都賣光了。我們只是賣得更遠一些。所以我們仍然在競爭，交付量本身就是我們所有產品中重要的競爭因素，其次才是定價。

So the implication that the pricing environment is firming is probably a solid point of view, and we don't discuss pricing on these calls other than to suggest that as tight as the market is, it's both the prospect of when you get your airplane and the price itself. And each and every competition, we all do what we got to do. I will say I'm very happy and pleased with the orders that we have won, and I'm sure Airbus says the same.

因此，暗示定價環境正在走強或許是個合理的觀點。我們在這些電話會議上不討論定價問題，只是想表明，儘管市場供應緊張，但最終拿到飛機的時間和價格本身都很重要。在每場競爭中，我們都在盡自己所能。我要說的是，我對我們贏得的訂單感到非常高興和滿意，我相信空中巴士也這麼說。

And in your clarification question, the first part, that 38 is the final assembly number. So right now, it's at 31, movement of 38 sometime later in the year.

在您澄清的問題中，第一部分，38 是最終組裝的編號。所以現在它是 31，今年稍後會生產 38 輛。

So it's a Renton number.

所以這是一個 Renton 號碼。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is from David Strauss from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的戴維‧史特勞斯。

Just following up on the MAX issue. Has Spirit fixed the manufacturing issue from their end? In other words, are fuselages coming off their line clean now? And when would you actually start to expect to see those come to you?

我只是在跟進 737 MAX 的問題。 Spirit 公司解決了製造問題了嗎？換句話說，現在他們的機身下線後是否乾淨？您預計什麼時候才能收到這些機身？

They know the fix there, they know the scope, and they're going to start delivering clean ones imminently. So we feel good about what they've got to go do. Of course, the harder work is on our end for something that's in finished goods inventory.

他們知道解決方案，也知道範圍，而且他們很快就會開始交付乾淨的產品。所以我們對他們接下來的工作感到很滿意。當然，對於成品庫存來說，更艱鉅的工作還是在我們這邊。

Okay. Quick follow-up, I think from the Investor Day, I recall the pacing item on going to 38 a month being activating the third line in Renton. Have you actually activated the third line at this point?

好的。快速跟進一下，我記得在投資者日，關於每月增加38個產線的計劃是啟動倫頓的第三條產線。現在您真的啟動了第三條產線嗎？

You bet.

當然。

And we're still moving forward on the fourth.

我們仍在朝第四個目標邁進。

The next question is from Jason Gursky from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Just a quick question on the outlook for orders in the commercial business. So wondering if you could kind of provide a little bit of color on your expectations from a book-to-bill perspective for the year, given the pipeline that you're seeing.

關於商業訂單前景的一個簡單的問題。鑑於您目前看到的情況，能否從訂單出貨比的角度，稍微介紹一下您對今年的預期？

And I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here, getting the MAX back up in the air and China is great. Deliveries are next. But I'd also be interested to get your thoughts on the future for deliveries in China specifically.

我不想在這裡說太遠，讓 737 MAX 重新飛上藍天，對中國來說已經是件好事了。接下來是交貨。但我也想聽聽您對未來中國交付情況的看法。

Yes. Let me start. I want to make sure -- I want to speak out of both sides of my mouth here, if you don't mind. Number one, all of our guidance, all of our expectations are predicated on no China. So everything that we've discussed by way of production rate, supply constraints and demand in the marketplace does not factor that in, and I want to be clear about that.

是的，讓我先說。我想確認一下——如果你不介意的話，我想在這裡說說我的觀點。首先，我們所有的指導、所有的期望都是建立在沒有中國因素的前提下。所以我們討論的關於生產力、供應限制和市場需求的所有內容都沒有考慮到這一點，我想明確這一點。

On the other hand, we are working very hard to regain China. And if and when we're able to do that, it takes risk out of the delivery of the finished goods inventory simply because there's less work to do in getting the airplanes to their originally intended customer.

另一方面，我們正在努力重振中國市場。如果我們能夠做到這一點，那麼成品庫存的交付風險就會降低，因為將飛機送達原定客戶所需的工作量會減少。

But it doesn't change much by way of production rates or anything along those lines because we're already -- our rates all the way out to 50 and beyond are constrained by supply. They're not -- these are not demand rates. I think we could add plenty if I thought the supply could meet it.

但就生產力或其他類似因素而言，變化不大，因為我們的產量已經——50%甚至更高——都受到供應的限制。這不是——這不是需求率。如果我認為供應能夠滿足需求，我們可以增加很多產量。

So -- and with respect to how I think we should think about future orders, all I know is that every next order and they're sizable, and there are plenty in play as we speak, deliveries are further and further out. So now we're out, believe it or not, in the 30s.

所以——關於我認為我們應該如何看待未來的訂單，我所知道的是，每一份訂單都數額巨大，而且目前有很多訂單正在進行中，交貨時間也越來越遠。所以現在，信不信由你，我們的交貨時間已經超過了30年。

So it's -- I think that's the best way to just think about it, what does the backlog support in terms of deliveries over what period of time. And right now, we're out competing in years far out, 5, 6, 7 years.

所以——我認為這是最好的思考方式，積壓訂單在多大程度上支持了多長的交付週期。目前，我們的競爭對手已經領先了好幾年，例如5年、6年、7年。

The next question is from Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

At the November Investor Day, you laid out a forecast of cash flow of $3 billion to $5 billion this year. And since that time, you've taken a couple of shells, you see the 737, you discussed the 767, and you mentioned because of supply chain having to build to higher inventories. So there were a lot of bad guys in that revised number.

在11月的投資者日上，您預測今年的現金流將在30億至50億美元之間。從那時起，您又經歷了幾次調整，例如737，767，也提到了供應鏈必須增加庫存。所以，修訂後的數字中有很多負面因素。

What are the good guys to get you home to stay in that number? I know you had the $1 billion tanker advance, but are the advances from airline customers substantially better? What are the good things in that forecast that allow you to maintain it?

有哪些利多因素能讓你維持這個數字？我知道你們有10億美元的油輪預付款，但航空公司客戶的預付款是否好得多？預測中有哪些利多因子能讓你維持這個數字？

Cai, let me start with a reminder, and then I'll let Brian mention one or two good guys. Sort of the tanker advance, we had always counted on. So it may have come a little earlier because of their need to get tankers in the field. But that was always counted on.

蔡，我先提醒一下，然後布萊恩再提一兩個好人。我們一直指望著加油機的推進。所以，由於他們需要在戰場上部署加油機，所以可能來得早了一點。但加油機的部署一直是我們指望的。

But what we did when we gave you that guidance is we did not, like I said, expect the supply chain to come ripping back, and we never have any problems. So there was some judgment applied when we gave the range that we would have to live through some of these things.

但正如我之前所說，我們在提供指引時並沒有預料到供應鏈會突然中斷，而且我們從未遇到任何問題。因此，我們在給出必須承受的損失範圍時，已經做了一些判斷。

Now I would suggest that one or two of these might have been a little tougher than things we were thinking about, but not much. And so anyway, that was factored into our guidance. And that will continue -- that factor continues all the way into 2024. So Brian, you might want to comment on a couple of individual things.

現在我想說，其中有一兩件事可能比我們之前考慮的要難一些，但難度不大。所以，無論如何，這些因素都已納入我們的績效指引中。而且這種情況會持續下去──這個因素會持續到2024年。所以，布萊恩，你可能想就幾個具體的事情發表一下意見。

Yes, just a couple of things. Thanks for the question, Cai. On the first quarter, 87 deliveries were a little light. We'll make that back up in the rest of the year. You mentioned the tanker benefit. That's something that we always plan for later in the year. The customer just wanted to get it done a bit sooner, which we think is good. So that's the first quarter.

是的，就幾件事。謝謝你的提問，蔡。第一季度，87架飛機的交付量略低。我們會在今年剩餘時間內彌補這一缺口。你提到了油輪補貼。這是我們一直計劃在今年稍後推出的。客戶只是希望盡快完成，我們認為這很好。以上就是第一季的情況。

And then in the second quarter, as I mentioned, we'll be in more of a breakeven position largely because of the 737s that are going to push out. But again, it's going to be back half benefit.

然後，正如我所提到的，在第二季度，我們將更加接近盈虧平衡，這主要是因為737的產量將會增加。但同樣，利潤將回落一半。

In the second half, as I think about the acceleration, it's going to be the 37 recovery, the 37 rate ramp. And there's going to be wide-bodies that are going to accelerate across the board, 777, 87, 67. So all of that's contemplated. And we've still got high conviction along that range. High end might be a little bit pressured, but we're committed to delivering that commitment of $3 billion to $5 billion.

下半年，我考慮加速發展，預計會有37架飛機的恢復，37架飛機的運力提升。寬體飛機也會全面加速發展，例如波音777、波音877和波音677。所有這些都在考慮之中。我們仍然對這一目標充滿信心。高端市場可能會有點壓力，但我們致力於兌現30億至50億美元的承諾。

Peter Arment from RW Baird.

RW Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Dave, I appreciate your comments on China. And I know you've derisked the skyline out through '26 on sort of deliveries, but seems like it's important steps that the regulator made. I'm just wondering whether you see this as that these next steps to delivery, is it customer-driven? Or is it still regulator-driven? How do you interpret that?

戴夫，我很欣賞你對中國的評論。我知道你已經降低了2026年之前天際線在交付方面的風險，但這似乎是監管機構採取的重要措施。我只是想知道，你是否認為這些交付的後續步驟是由客戶驅動的？還是仍由監管機構驅動？你如何理解這一點？

Yes. Again, I don't want anything to get misinterpreted here. The China market, which in my view has always been the issue with respect to taking deliveries of airplanes, has come back as robustly as anyone might have imagined. And domestic travel now is at the pre-pandemic level and will continue to grow. So they need airplanes.

是的。我再說一遍，我不想有任何誤解。在我看來，中國市場一直是飛機接收方面的問題，但它的復甦之強度超出了所有人的想像。目前國內旅行量已恢復到疫情前的水平，並將持續成長。所以他們需要飛機。

And so I'll just sort of state as a fact that our customers, in my view, are going to need more airplanes in the relatively near to medium term. And this is a pretty easy way for them to satisfy that need.

所以，我只想說，我認為我們的客戶在中短期內會需要更多飛機。而這對他們來說是一個相當簡單的滿足需求的方法。

So rather than get involved in any geopolitical discussion because no geopolitical discussion is actually required here. It's -- we have orders on the books. We have airplanes on the tarmac. And so this is just a nod from the Chinese government that they would like to take delivery of their airplanes.

所以與其參與任何地緣政治討論，不如說我們不需要參與任何地緣政治討論。我們已經有訂單了。我們的飛機已經停放在停機坪上。這只是中國政府表示願意接收飛機的姿態。

So that is the situation as it exists. And I'm going to stick with sort of my posture, if you don't mind, that all of our guidance and all of our activities are going to assume that the best things don't happen. And if they do, then we will welcome that news and get back to all of you.

實際情況就是這樣。如果您不介意的話，我會堅持我的立場，我們所有的指導方針和所有活動都假設最好的事情不會發生。如果真的發生了，我們會歡迎這個消息，並及時向大家通報。

The next question is from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Dave, I wonder if we just talk for a second about Spirit in a broader context. I think the current issue might even predate the grounding, but they've been struggling there on a couple of different fronts lately.

戴夫，我想我們能不能從更廣闊的視角談談「精神號」的問題。我認為目前的問題甚至可能早在停飛之前就存在了，但他們最近在幾個不同的方面都遇到了麻煩。

And the idea of moving to 38 and then to 50 is you can only go as fast as they can go. And it's pretty understandable because I don't think anybody has had a more challenging 3 or 4 years than Spirit other than maybe you guys.

先是升至38歲，然後升至50歲，這意味著你的速度只能和他們的速度一樣快。這很容易理解，因為我認為除了你們之外，沒有人經歷過比Spirit更具挑戰性的3年或4年。

But how are you going to make sure that they're there to support that rate increase for you maybe more broadly, and then with a specific reference to the big labor contract that they have coming up in June?

但是，您如何確保他們能夠更廣泛地支持提高工資，並具體參考他們即將在六月簽訂的大型勞動合約？

Well, I'll be optimistic about the labor contract. I think as you might guess, I suspect their workers know the situation they're in. They know that they've got to deliver for Boeing, and my guess is they'll all get to a palatable answer. It's not my control, so you'll have to ask Tom about that.

嗯，我對勞動合約持樂觀態度。我想你可能也猜到了，我懷疑他們的工人了解他們的處境。他們知道他們必須為波音公司交付產品，我猜他們都會得到一個令人滿意的答案。這不在我的掌控之中，所以你得問問湯姆。

I am confident in their ability to ramp with us. We were on a steady course to keep them ahead of us in this ramp rate, and they were on a reasonable course there. This last defect will slow them down in measures in weeks and months, not in years and will not impede their ability to get to our rate increases.

我對他們跟上我們產能提升的速度充滿信心。我們一直在穩步推進，以這樣的速度保持領先，而他們也走在了合理的軌道上。最後一個缺陷會讓他們以幾週或幾個月而不是幾年的時間來減緩措施，也不會妨礙他們跟上我們的產能提升速度。

We're going to stay present with Spirit. We're in their factories, we're talking to their people. As I said, there's a couple of ways you can look at this issue that came up. Like I said, it's normally -- it was difficult to find, but an employee raised their hand and noticed a bad procedure and everybody jumped on it.

我們會一直關注 Spirit 的情況。我們會去他們的工廠，和他們的員工溝通。正如我所說，你可以從幾個角度來看這個問題。就像我說的，通常情況下──這個問題很難發現，但一位員工舉起手指出了一個不良流程，然後大家都立刻行動起來。

Within a week, we had this resolved with the FAA. We had a clear picture of the airplanes that were impacted, and we were all at work on the rework. That is a signal of a healthy supply chain, not a weak one.

不到一周，我們就與美國聯邦航空管理局（FAA）解決了這個問題。我們清楚地了解了受影響的飛機，並全力投入返工工作。這顯示我們的供應鏈健康，而不是薄弱。

And so we're going to maintain that attitude. We're going to continue to work constructively with Spirit. Brian mentioned you our willingness to advance them cash during this moment while they go through their recovery stages. So yes, we're going to stay constructive.

所以我們會保持這種態度。我們將繼續與Spirit航空進行建設性合作。 Brian之前提到過，我們願意在他們恢復期間預支現金。所以，是的，我們會保持建設性的態度。

I have confidence that Tom and the team at Spirit can get ahead of this. And I -- and we have been on the rate increase request and supply chain requests with them for quite some time, and we are confident they can get there.

我相信湯姆和Spirit航空的團隊能夠取得進展。我們已經和他們討論加價請求和供應鏈請求很長一段時間了，我們相信他們能夠成功。

The next question is from Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Following up on the supplier master agreement schedule -- or sorry, the supplier master schedule for the 737 MAX, how long will the supply chain be at a higher production rate than your final production rate? And how much is that inventory build going to cost?

根據供應商主協議計劃——或者更準確地說是737 MAX的供應商主計劃，供應鏈的生產力會比最終生產力高多久？庫存建造的成本是多少？

Yes. It's a matter of months, Kristine. Thanks for the question. It's a matter of months, and the inventory is all contemplated in our forward look. It's not anything we worry too much about. In fact, again, another indication of how we're thinking about this, we're perfectly comfortable keeping everyone at pace and hold a little buffer.

是的，Kristine，這只是幾個月的問題。謝謝你的提問。這只是幾個月的問題，庫存問題都在我們的前瞻性規劃中。我們不會太擔心。事實上，這也再次表明了我們對此的看法：我們完全有信心讓每個人都保持節奏，並留出一些緩衝空間。

We think that's a better alternative than keeping it a little bit too close to the wire. And we're going to keep having that posture, and that's going to help us get to 38 and then beyond.

我們認為這比把目標定在最後關頭要好得多。我們會繼續保持這種態勢，這將幫助我們邁向38強，甚至更遠。

Great. And a follow-up on Seth's question on the labor agreement with Spirit. Should we see a production disruption at Spirit? What are mitigating actions you could take? And are there things that you could do to make it easier for you to meet your targets if, again, there is a production disruption at Spirit?

太好了。接下來是關於Seth關於與Spirit公司勞動協議的問題。 Spirit公司的生產會中斷嗎？你們可以採取哪些緩解措施？如果Spirit公司再次出現生產中斷，你們可以採取哪些措施來更容易實現目標？

Yes, I'm not going to speculate on that. I'm going to assume that our supplier and the workforce at our supplier are good enough and smart enough and can play far enough ahead to not worry about that.

是的，我不會對此進行猜測。我假設我們的供應商及其員工足夠優秀、足夠聰明，並且能夠預見未來，不用擔心這個問題。

And Lois, we have time for one final question.

露易絲，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

That will come from Matt Akers from Wells Fargo.

這句話來自富國銀行的 Matt Akers。

Can you touch on BGS margins in the quarter? I think this is like the highest you put it since you broke that out. I know you mentioned the mix was positive, but can you say how much of that benefit was? I think this is kind of like a mid-teens margin pre-COVID. Should we expect to kind of gravitate back to that level? Or could it be kind of a little bit higher here?

能談談本季BGS的利潤率嗎？我覺得這是您公佈利潤率以來的最高值。我知道您提到了利潤組合是積極的，但您能說說其中有多少是積極的嗎？我覺得這個利潤率有點像新冠疫情之前的十幾五、六個百分點。我們應該預期會回到這個水平嗎？還是會稍微高一點？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We love the service business, right? It's a franchise that goes on for years and years and years. And the good news is, is that, as Dave mentioned, on the commercial side, we're back to pre-pandemic levels. That's a healthy sign. And the team is very focused on profitable, capital-efficient growth. And that's important in the service business. So I think we're set up very well.

是的，謝謝你的提問。我們熱愛服務業務，對吧？這是一個可以持續多年的特許經營業務。好消息是，正如戴夫所提到的，在商業方面，我們已經恢復到疫情前的水準。這是一個健康的跡象。團隊非常專注於獲利且資本高效的成長。這對服務業務來說非常重要。所以我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。

The quarter, a little bit of a mix benefit. But overall, we're set up very well to deliver a mid-single-digit revenue growth business with mid-teens margins and a high cash flow conversion just like we set out in November. And we get more and more confident about that business and the team that's running it. So I think it's going to accrue to our benefit over the next several years.

本季度，收益參差不齊。但總體而言，我們已經做好了充分的準備，能夠實現中等個位數的收入成長、中等十幾個百分點的利潤率和較高的現金流轉換率，正如我們11月份設定的目標一樣。我們對這項業務以及經營它的團隊越來越有信心。所以我認為，這將在未來幾年內為我們帶來收益。

And if I just think in my short 3 years or maybe it feels long, we made a lot of changes to services, and we tightened up the capital disciplines in a pretty significant way. They all leaned in favor of higher margin, more intellectual property content in our work that we do.

想想看，在我短短的三年，或者說感覺很長的三年裡，我們對服務進行了很多改變，並且相當顯著地加強了資本約束。他們都傾向於追求更高的利潤率，並在我們的工作中融入更多智慧財產權元素。

And of course, we now have a supply-constrained market around that. So I'm not surprised these margins have expanded, and I'm not expecting them to go down. I think the team is doing a great job.

當然，我們現在的市場供應有限。所以我對這些利潤率的擴大並不感到驚訝，而且我預期利潤率也不會下降。我認為團隊做得很好。

And that concludes our first quarter earnings call. Thank you, everybody.

我們第一季的財報電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the Boeing First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining.

謝謝大家。女士們，先生們，波音2023年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。