波音 (BA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and the slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。大家好，歡迎來到波音公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。管理層討論和幻燈片演示，以及分析師問答環節都在互聯網上直播。 （操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for Boeing. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

此時，為了進行開場白和介紹，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁 Matt Welch 先生。韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Boeing's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation at boeing.com. As always, detailed financial information is included in today's press release.

謝謝，早上好。歡迎來到波音 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。我是馬特·韋爾奇，今天和我一起的有波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩；和波音公司執行副總裁兼首席財務官布賴恩韋斯特。提醒一下，您可以在 boeing.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。一如既往，詳細的財務信息包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Furthermore, projections, estimates and goals included in today's discussion involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of the web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

此外，今天討論中包含的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和網絡演示文稿末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解某些非 GAAP 措施的披露和對賬情況。

Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給戴夫卡爾霍恩。

Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had a solid first quarter, and we continue to make real progress, steady progress in our recovery. Challenges remain. There's more to do. But overall, we feel good about the operational and financial outlook shared last November, including cash flow and delivery ranges set for 2023 as well as for the 2025, 2026 time frame, where we can see $10 billion in annual free cash flow.

謝謝，馬特。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。我們在第一季度表現穩健，我們繼續取得真正的進展，在我們的複蘇中穩步取得進展。挑戰依然存在。還有更多事情要做。但總的來說，我們對去年 11 月分享的運營和財務前景感到滿意，包括為 2023 年以及 2025 年和 2026 年時間框架設定的現金流和交付範圍，我們可以看到每年 100 億美元的自由現金流。

Let's start with an update on our 737. Our team has been working hard over the last week. We've been progressing in our early inspection of affected airplanes. The issue's understood. It's isolated to two specific fittings, and we know what we have to do.

讓我們從 737 的更新開始。我們的團隊上週一直在努力工作。我們對受影響飛機的早期檢查一直在取得進展。問題明白了。它被隔離到兩個特定的配件，我們知道我們必須做什麼。

The work will impact the timing of our deliveries over the next several months. However, we still expect to deliver 450 737 airplanes this year. Unfortunately, the timing of these delivery shortfalls will impact summer capacities for many of our customers, and we feel terrible about that. Deliveries and production will be lower near term, but we will recover over the coming months, and we plan to increase our rate to 38 per month later this year.

這項工作將影響我們未來幾個月的交付時間。然而，我們仍預計今年將交付 450 737 架飛機。不幸的是，這些交付短缺的時間將影響我們許多客戶的夏季產能，我們對此感到很糟糕。短期內交付和生產將減少，但我們將在未來幾個月恢復，我們計劃在今年晚些時候將我們的費率提高到每月 38 件。

As mentioned last week, we're also not changing the supplier master schedule to ensure that they can keep pace, and we're comfortable adding parts inventory. Stepping back, we appreciate that Spirit promptly notified us of this issue. They're an important partner. We're working closely on the recovery plan, and we are working in a very constructive way.

正如上週所提到的，我們也不會更改供應商主計劃以確保他們能夠跟上步伐，並且我們很樂意增加零件庫存。退一步說，我們感謝 Spirit 及時通知了我們這個問題。他們是重要的合作夥伴。我們正在密切合作制定恢復計劃，我們正在以一種非常有建設性的方式開展工作。

We will continue to work transparently with the FAA as always. As well, we will work transparently with our customers to support their fleet planning and scheduling requirements. As we mentioned last week, there's no immediate safety of flight issue, and the fleet can continue to operate safely. We will work diligently through this process together. We will prioritize safety. We will prioritize quality and transparency every step of the way.

我們將一如既往地繼續透明地與美國聯邦航空局合作。此外，我們將與客戶透明合作，支持他們的車隊規劃和調度要求。正如我們上週提到的，目前不存在飛行安全問題，機隊可以繼續安全運營。我們將一起努力完成這個過程。我們將把安全放在首位。我們將在每一步都優先考慮質量和透明度。

Taking a wider view. I couldn't be more proud of the MAX team and the progress that we have made. We now have over 1,000 737 MAX airplanes flying in the fleet. And since our return to service, the fleet has safely flown more than 4 million flight hours with exceptional reliability.

放眼更廣闊。我為 MAX 團隊和我們取得的進步感到無比自豪。現在，我們的機隊中有超過 1,000 架 737 MAX 飛機在飛行。自我們恢復服務以來，該機隊已安全飛行了超過 400 萬飛行小時，並具有卓越的可靠性。

And with respect to China, our focus has been and is on supporting our customers and their return to service. All MAX operators have returned to flying airplanes in service, and 45 of their 95 airplanes are back in the sky.

至於中國，我們的重點一直是，現在仍然是支持我們的客戶，幫助他們恢復服務。所有 MAX 運營商都已恢復飛行服役飛機，他們的 95 架飛機中有 45 架已重返天空。

In addition, the CAAC released their 737 Aircraft Evaluation Report. It's an important step toward the delivery of aircraft that are currently in Boeing's possession. We will follow the lead of our customers.

此外，民航總局發布了737飛機評估報告。這是朝著交付目前由波音公司擁有的飛機邁出的重要一步。我們將跟隨客戶的腳步。

Moving to BCA. I'll start with orders. Demand remains very strong across all of our product lines. We booked 107 net airplane orders in the first quarter. And on top of this, we were proud to announce major customer commitments earlier this year: Air India, 190 737 MAX, 20 787s and 10 777Xs; and Riyadh Air, the newly established airline in Saudi Arabia; and Saudia, ordering up to 121 787 airplanes.

搬到建設局。我將從命令開始。我們所有產品線的需求仍然非常強勁。我們在第一季度預訂了 107 架淨飛機訂單。除此之外，我們很自豪地在今年早些時候宣布了主要客戶承諾：印度航空公司 190 737 MAX、20 787 和 10 777X；沙特阿拉伯新成立的航空公司利雅得航空；和沙特航空，訂購了多達 121 787 架飛機。

On the subject of deliveries, with strong demand, we're working to meet our customer commitments. We delivered 130 commercial airplanes in the quarter, including a strong month in March with 64 deliveries. However, variation in monthly deliveries remains high, and we still have work to improve stability. Of course, that starts with the 737, as I mentioned earlier.

在交貨方面，由於需求旺盛，我們正在努力履行對客戶的承諾。我們在本季度交付了 130 架商用飛機，其中 3 月份表現強勁，交付了 64 架飛機。然而，每月交付量的變化仍然很大，我們仍在努力提高穩定性。當然，正如我之前提到的，這要從 737 開始。

On the subject of production, we are also steadily increasing rates across key programs to meet the robust demand. And we'll prioritize our stability and not push the system too fast. And yes, we will pause when we are notified of defects.

在生產方面，我們也在穩步提高關鍵項目的利率，以滿足強勁的需求。我們將優先考慮我們的穩定性，而不是將系統推得太快。是的，當我們收到缺陷通知時，我們會暫停。

On development, we're progressing across all of our key development programs. And certification time lines have not changed on the 737-7, -10 or the 777X.

在發展方面，我們正在推進所有關鍵發展計劃。 737-7、-10 或 777X 的認證時間線沒有改變。

Now let me switch to BDS, Boeing Defense. In defense and space, we still have more work to do to improve our operating performance. But our portfolio is well positioned, and our products are performing well in the field.

現在讓我切換到 BDS，Boeing Defense。在國防和太空領域，我們還有更多工作要做，以提高我們的運營績效。但我們的產品組合定位良好，我們的產品在該領域表現良好。

First quarter results were impacted by the added cost on the KC-46A Tanker program, driven by a supplier quality issue that we previously shared last month. The good news is we understand it, and we're progressing through that rework.

第一季度業績受到 KC-46A 加油機項目成本增加的影響，這是由我們上個月分享的供應商質量問題推動的。好消息是我們理解它，並且我們正在通過返工取得進展。

On the operational side, the tanker is continuing to perform its mission well. Customers' decision on the KC-Y is a great opportunity for us, and it reflects the capabilities the tanker is delivering for the United States Air Force.

在操作方面，油輪繼續良好地執行任務。客戶對 KC-Y 的決定對我們來說是一個很好的機會，它反映了加油機為美國空軍提供的能力。

On the demand side, we're continuing to see solid order activity. In the quarter, we booked key orders on the tanker, the Apache and E-7. In addition, we are accelerating the delivery of missiles and weapons in response to our customers' needs.

在需求方面，我們繼續看到穩定的訂單活動。在本季度，我們預訂了加油機、阿帕奇和 E-7 的主要訂單。此外，我們正在加速導彈和武器的交付，以響應客戶的需求。

We're also encouraged by the initial presidential budget request recently released. It's in line with our expectations. And our portfolio and capabilities are well positioned to support the needs of the nation and our allies, both in the short and the long term. Our defense business is well positioned, and we'll continue to improve operational performance to more normalized levels.

我們也對最近發布的初步總統預算請求感到鼓舞。這符合我們的預期。我們的產品組合和能力能夠很好地支持國家和我們盟友的短期和長期需求。我們的國防業務定位良好，我們將繼續將運營績效提高到更正常的水平。

In Boeing Global Services, another very strong quarter. Solid, steady performance has enabled both commercial and military customers to keep fleets flying through a very dynamic time. The services business has now fully returned to pre-pandemic levels. I'm very proud of the team and the progress that they have made.

在波音全球服務中，另一個非常強勁的季度。穩固、穩定的性能使商業和軍事客戶能夠在充滿活力的時代保持機隊飛行。服務業務現已完全恢復到大流行前的水平。我為團隊和他們所取得的進步感到非常自豪。

All things considered across the businesses, we remain on the right path. We'll work through most recent MAX issue transparently and in partnership with our customers and our suppliers. We're focused on the long term, and we'll continue to drive stability across the business and the supply chain.

考慮到所有業務，我們仍然走在正確的道路上。我們將與我們的客戶和供應商合作，透明地解決最近的 MAX 問題。我們著眼於長期，我們將繼續推動整個業務和供應鏈的穩定性。

In our November guidance, we did not predict significant supply chain improvement until well into 2024. We remain in the same place today and share that same view. That said, we've seen improvement, and our line of sight is getting better every day. Demand is strong and our portfolio is well positioned. We have a robust pipeline of development programs, and we're innovating in new capabilities to prepare for the next generation of products.

在我們 11 月的指導意見中，我們預測供應鏈要到 2024 年才會有顯著改善。我們今天仍然在同一個地方，並持有同樣的觀點。也就是說，我們看到了進步，我們的視線每天都在變好。需求強勁，我們的產品組合定位良好。我們擁有強大的開發計劃管道，我們正在創新新功能，為下一代產品做好準備。

Lots of work to do, but we're on track to restore our operational and our financial strength. And we still feel good about the outlook that we've shared, both for this year and for our longer term.

有很多工作要做，但我們正在恢復我們的運營和財務實力。我們仍然對我們分享的前景感到滿意，無論是今年還是長期。

With that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

有了這個，我會把它交給布賴恩。

Great. Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Let's go to the next page and cover the total company results. First quarter revenue was $17.9 billion. That's up 28% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher volume in both commercial and defense.

偉大的。謝謝，戴夫，大家早上好。讓我們轉到下一頁並介紹公司的總體結果。第一季度收入為 179 億美元。同比增長 28%，這主要是由於商業和國防業務量的增加。

Core operating margin was minus 2.5%, and the core loss per share was $1.27, both big improvements versus last year due to higher commercial volume and improved operating performance. Margins and EPS were negative driven by expected abnormal costs and period expenses as well as a charge on the KC-46 Tanker program that I noted last month.

核心營業利潤率為負 2.5%，每股核心虧損為 1.27 美元，與去年相比均有較大改善，原因是商業銷量增加和經營業績改善。由於預期的異常成本和期間費用以及我上個月提到的 KC-46 油輪計劃的費用，利潤率和每股收益為負。

Free cash flow was a usage of $786 million in the quarter, significantly better versus last year driven by the higher commercial deliveries as well as an advanced payment tied to lot 9 on the tanker program, another important award for the KC-46 franchise. As we noted in our last earnings call, cash was lower this quarter than the fourth quarter due to lower wide-body deliveries and expected seasonality.

自由現金流在本季度使用了 7.86 億美元，明顯好於去年，這是由於商業交付量增加以及與油輪項目第 9 號批次相關的預付款推動的，這是 KC-46 特許經營權的另一個重要獎項。正如我們在上次財報電話會議中指出的那樣，由於寬體機交付量減少和預期的季節性因素，本季度現金低於第四季度。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover Commercial Airplanes. Let's start with orders. BCA booked 107 net orders in the quarter, including JAL and Lufthansa, and we have a backlog of over 4,500 airplanes valued at $334 billion.

轉到下一頁，我將介紹商用飛機。讓我們從訂單開始。 BCA 在本季度預訂了 107 份淨訂單，其中包括 JAL 和 Lufthansa，我們積壓了 4,500 多架飛機，價值 3,340 億美元。

Moving to the figures on the left. Revenue was $6.7 billion, up 60% year-over-year, driven by 130 airplane deliveries with increases on both the 87 and the 37 programs, partially offset by 87 customer considerations. Operating margin was minus 9.2%, which was significantly better than last year. But margins are impacted by expected abnormal costs and period expenses, including higher R&D spending.

移動到左邊的數字。收入為 67 億美元，同比增長 60%，這得益於 130 架飛機的交付以及 87 和 37 個項目的增長，部分被 87 個客戶考慮因素所抵消。營業利潤率為-9.2%，明顯好於去年。但利潤率受到預期異常成本和期間費用的影響，包括更高的研發支出。

Let's take a minute on the 737 program. The 37 had 113 deliveries in the first quarter, up 31% year-over-year, including 53 deliveries in the month of March.

讓我們花點時間了解一下 737 計劃。這 37 家公司在第一季度交付了 113 架飛機，同比增長 31%，其中 3 月份交付了 53 架飛機。

Picking up where Dave left off regarding the supplier fuselage item. We found the issue. We booked a nonmaterial financial impact in the quarter. We understand the rework steps required, and we started repairs on several airplanes. And although near-term deliveries will be impacted, we still expect to deliver between 400 and 450 737s this year.

從 Dave 關於供應商機身項目的地方繼續。我們發現了問題。我們在本季度記錄了非重大財務影響。我們了解所需的返工步驟，並開始對多架飛機進行維修。儘管近期交付將受到影響，但我們仍預計今年將交付 400 至 450 737 架飛機。

April and 2Q deliveries will be lower, but the first half monthly average will be about 30 airplanes per month, in line with what we said previously. The second half deliveries are expected to be around 40 per month, with sequential quarterly improvement in the back half. While the high end of the delivery range is pressured, ultimate performance will be dictated by the pace of the fuselage recovery.

4 月和第 2 季度的交付量將較低，但上半年平均每月約 30 架飛機，與我們之前所說的一致。預計下半年交付量約為每月 40 輛，後半年環比改善。雖然交付範圍的高端受到壓力，但最終性能將取決於機身恢復的速度。

Regarding inventory, we ended the quarter with approximately 225 MAX airplanes in inventory, including 138 that were built for customers in China and roughly 30 -7s and -10s. Within these 225 inventoried airplanes, roughly 75% will require the fuselage rework. And the number of inventoried airplanes will likely increase in 2Q, and we still expect most to be delivered by the end of 2024.

關於庫存，我們在本季度結束時擁有大約 225 架 MAX 飛機的庫存，其中包括 138 架為中國客戶製造的飛機以及大約 30 架 -7 和 -10。在這 225 架庫存飛機中，大約 75% 需要機身返工。第二季度庫存飛機數量可能會增加，我們仍然預計大部分飛機將在 2024 年底交付。

On production, we're completing airplanes in final assembly and expect to recover in the coming months, paced by fuselage availability. We're supporting Spirit through this recovery, including manufacturing and engineering resources as well as a cash advance. To support overall supply chain stability, we're not changing the master schedule, including anticipated production rate increases and we've contemplated any near-term parts inventory builds into our forward look.

在生產方面，我們正在完成飛機的總裝，並預計在未來幾個月內恢復，這取決於機身的可用性。我們通過這次復蘇支持 Spirit，包括製造和工程資源以及預付現金。為了支持整體供應鏈的穩定性，我們不會改變主計劃，包括預期的生產率增加，並且我們已經考慮了任何近期零件庫存構建我們的前瞻性。

Within final assembly, as Dave mentioned, we expect to increase our rate to 38 per month later this year and 50 per month in the '25, '26 time frame.

正如 Dave 提到的那樣，在總裝中，我們希望在今年晚些時候將我們的速度提高到每月 38 次，並在 25 年和 26 年的時間框架內提高到每月 50 次。

Moving on to the 787 program. We had 11 deliveries in the first quarter and still expect 70 to 80 deliveries this year. We're producing at 3 per month and still plan to reach 5 per month by year-end. We ended the quarter with 95 airplanes in inventory, most of which will be delivered by the end of 2024.

繼續 787 計劃。我們在第一季度交付了 11 架飛機，預計今年仍將交付 70 至 80 架。我們每月生產 3 個，併計劃在年底前達到每月 5 個。本季度末，我們有 95 架飛機庫存，其中大部分將在 2024 年底交付。

We booked 379 of abnormal costs in the quarter, in line with expectations, and there's no change to the total estimate of $2.8 billion. We still expect abnormal to be largely done by the end of this year.

我們在本季度登記了 379 項異常成本，符合預期，總預估 28 億美元沒有變化。我們仍然預計異常情況將在今年年底前基本完成。

Finally, on the 777X program, efforts are ongoing. Both the program time line and the abnormal estimate of $1.5 billion are unchanged. We booked $126 million of abnormal costs in the quarter, in line with expectations.

最後，在 777X 項目上，正在努力。計劃時間表和 15 億美元的異常估計都沒有變化。我們在本季度計入了 1.26 億美元的異常成本，符合預期。

With that, let's turn to the next page and go through defense and space. BDS booked $10 billion in orders during the quarter, including awards for the U.S. Air Force for 15 KC-46 Tankers and an E-7 development contract as well as 184 Apaches for the U.S. Army. The BDS backlog is $58 billion.

有了這個，讓我們翻到下一頁，通過防禦和空間。 BDS 在本季度獲得了 100 億美元的訂單，其中包括美國空軍獲得的 15 架 KC-46 加油機和一份 E-7 開發合同，以及美國陸軍獲得的 184 架阿帕奇戰鬥機。 BDS 積壓訂單為 580 億美元。

Moving to the figures on the left. Revenue was $6.5 billion, up 19% year-over-year, driven by the KC-46 Tanker award, program milestone completions and underlying volume. We delivered 39 aircraft and 3 satellites in the quarter and also began production of the MH-139 Grey Wolf.

移動到左邊的數字。收入為 65 億美元，同比增長 19%，這主要受 KC-46 加油機授標、項目里程碑完成和基礎銷量的推動。我們在本季度交付了 39 架飛機和 3 顆衛星，還開始生產 MH-139 灰狼。

Operating margin was minus 3.2%, significantly higher than last year but still negative, driven by a $245 million pretax charge on the tanker program, which I noted last month.

營業利潤率為負 3.2%，顯著高於去年，但仍為負，這是受到我上個月提到的油輪項目 2.45 億美元的稅前費用的推動。

Let me give you a little bit of context on the overall BDS portfolio. Remember, 15% of the revenues in the quarter are the firm fixed-price development contracts. These contracts get a lot of attention, and there is a commitment to derisk these programs as much as we can as we move through the development cycles and into full-scale, stable production.

讓我向您簡要介紹一下整個 BDS 產品組合。請記住，本季度 15% 的收入是固定價格開發合同。這些合同得到了很多關注，並且在我們通過開發週期進入全面、穩定的生產階段時，我們承諾盡可能多地降低這些項目的風險。

Next and importantly, over 60% of revenues in the quarter collectively delivered double-digit margins. We have many important programs that are performing to historical performance levels.

接下來也是重要的是，本季度超過 60% 的收入共同實現了兩位數的利潤率。我們有許多重要的計劃正在執行到歷史性能水平。

The balance of the 1Q revenue is made up of a small number of established programs that are experiencing negative margins on certain contracts due to specific near-term supply chain and factory stability pressures that we've highlighted previously. It will take time to work through these issues, and we fully expect that these programs will improve through the course of this year and return to normal margin levels over time.

第一季度收入的餘額由少數既定項目組成，由於我們之前強調的特定近期供應鍊和工廠穩定性壓力，這些項目在某些合同上出現負利潤率。解決這些問題需要時間，我們完全預計這些計劃將在今年有所改善，並隨著時間的推移恢復到正常的利潤率水平。

The BDS team is fully committed delivering the development programs to our customers. We've implemented new contracting disciplines, accelerated efforts around lean manufacturing and we're investing in innovation and in our people, all of which underpin our plans going forward.

BDS 團隊完全致力於為我們的客戶提供開發計劃。我們已經實施了新的承包紀律，加快了圍繞精益製造的努力，並且我們正在投資於創新和我們的員工，所有這些都是我們未來計劃的基礎。

Overall, the defense portfolio is well positioned. There's strong demand across the customer base, the products are performing in the field, and we're confident that our efforts to drive execution and stability will return this business to performance levels that our investors would recognize.

總體而言，國防組合定位良好。整個客戶群都有強勁的需求，產品在現場表現良好，我們相信我們為推動執行和穩定性所做的努力將使這項業務恢復到投資者認可的績效水平。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover Global Services. As Dave mentioned, BGS had another very strong quarter. We received $4 billion in orders during the quarter, and the backlog is $19 billion.

轉到下一頁，我將介紹全球服務。正如 Dave 提到的，BGS 有另一個非常強勁的季度。我們在本季度收到了 40 億美元的訂單，積壓訂單為 190 億美元。

Looking to the figures on the left. Revenue was $4.7 billion, up 9% year-over-year, primarily driven by our commercial parts and distribution business. Operating margin was 17.9%, an expansion of 330 basis points versus last year, with both our commercial and government businesses delivering double-digit margins. Operating margins in the quarter were higher than expected due to favorable mix, and we don't assume that will repeat.

查看左側的數字。收入為 47 億美元，同比增長 9%，主要由我們的商業零件和分銷業務推動。營業利潤率為 17.9%，比去年增長 330 個基點，我們的商業和政府業務均實現了兩位數的利潤率。由於有利的組合，本季度的營業利潤率高於預期，我們認為這種情況不會重演。

In the quarter, BGS announced the first Boeing Converted Freighter line in India, delivered AerCap's 50th 737-800 Boeing Converted Freighter and broke ground on a new component operations facility in Jacksonville, Florida.

本季度，BGS 宣佈在印度推出第一條波音改裝貨機生產線，交付了 AerCap 的第 50 架 737-800 波音改裝貨機，並在佛羅里達州傑克遜維爾的新部件運營設施破土動工。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover cash and debt. We ended the quarter with $14.8 billion of cash and marketable securities, and our debt balance decreased to $55.4 billion. We paid down $1.7 billion of debt maturities in the quarter and absorbed the expected cash flow usage driven by seasonality. We also had $12 billion of revolving credit facilities at the end of the quarter, all of which remain undrawn.

翻到下一頁，我將介紹現金和債務。本季度末，我們擁有 148 億美元的現金和有價證券，債務餘額降至 554 億美元。我們在本季度償還了 17 億美元的到期債務，並吸收了季節性驅動的預期現金流量使用。截至本季度末，我們還有 120 億美元的循環信貸額度，所有這些額度均未動用。

Our liquidity position is very strong. The investment-grade credit rating is a priority, and we're deploying capital in line with the priorities we've shared: generate strong cash flow, invest the business and pay down debt.

我們的流動性狀況非常強勁。投資級信用評級是一個優先事項，我們正在根據我們共同的優先事項部署資本：產生強勁的現金流、投資業務和償還債務。

And flipping to the last page on our outlook. The 2023 financial outlook is unchanged from what we previously shared, including $3 billion to $5 billion of free cash flow generation. Commercial demand remains strong across our key programs and services. Passenger traffic in February increased over 55% year-over-year and is at 85% of pre-pandemic levels, comprised (inaudible) domestic and 78% international. Defense demand is robust, and the initial FY '24 presidential budget is in line with expectations. As Dave mentioned, our portfolio and capabilities are well positioned to support the needs of the nation and of our allies.

並翻到我們展望的最後一頁。 2023 年的財務前景與我們之前分享的沒有變化，包括 30 億至 50 億美元的自由現金流產生。我們的主要項目和服務的商業需求依然強勁。 2 月份的客運量同比增長超過 55%，達到大流行前水平的 85%，包括（聽不清）國內和 78% 的國際。國防需求強勁，24 財年總統預算初步符合預期。正如戴夫所提到的，我們的產品組合和能力能夠很好地支持國家和我們盟友的需求。

On the supply chain front, as you'll recall when we set out our 2023 framework last November, we predicted the supply chain instability would likely continue. The good news is that we plan for it within our financial and delivery guidance. There's progress in many areas of the supply base, but we will likely face pockets of variability through the rest of this year. We continue to make key investments, including higher inventory buffers and forward deployment of resources as we take appropriate actions to mitigate impacts and improve predictability.

在供應鏈方面，您還記得去年 11 月我們制定 2023 年框架時，我們預測供應鏈不穩定可能會持續下去。好消息是我們在我們的財務和交付指南範圍內對此進行了計劃。供應基地的許多領域都取得了進展，但在今年餘下的時間裡，我們可能會面臨一些變化。我們繼續進行關鍵投資，包括增加庫存緩沖和提前部署資源，同時採取適當行動減輕影響並提高可預測性。

From a quarterly perspective, we continue to expect financials to improve throughout the year. On 2Q specifically, we expect core EPS will be roughly in line with 1Q '23 performance absent the tanker charge, as the 737 delivery impacts would be largely offset by higher wide-body deliveries.

從季度的角度來看，我們繼續預計全年的財務狀況會有所改善。具體而言，在第二季度，我們預計核心每股收益將與 23 年第一季度的表現大致一致，但不包括油輪費用，因為 737 交付的影響將在很大程度上被更高的寬體交付量所抵消。

We expect free cash flow to be breakeven to slightly negative as we work through the 37 recovery. All things considered, we feel good about what's in front of us. And we remain on track to achieve our long-term guidance, including $10 billion of free cash flow in the '25, '26 time frame.

我們預計隨著我們經歷 37 次復蘇，自由現金流將實現盈虧平衡或略微為負。考慮到所有因素，我們對眼前的事物感覺良好。我們仍有望實現我們的長期指導，包括在 25 年、26 年的時間框架內實現 100 億美元的自由現金流。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave for any closing comments.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Dave 以徵求任何結束意見。

Yes, not much to add. Just a reminder that in November, when we did finally set out guidance for all of our investors, we described an environment that would continue to be strained through 2023 and through most of 2024. We still see the world exactly that way. Demand is as robust, if not more than what we had thought back in November, and so we remain confident.

是的，沒有太多要補充的。提醒一下，在 11 月，當我們最終為所有投資者制定指導時，我們描述了一個到 2023 年和 2024 年大部分時間都將繼續緊張的環境。我們仍然以這種方式看待世界。需求與我們 11 月份的預期一樣強勁，甚至超過我們的預期，因此我們仍然充滿信心。

So thanks for your time, and let's take some questions.

謝謝你的時間，讓我們來回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Dave, the quality slip or escape at Spirit, it sounds like it's been going on for several years actually. So I think the natural question we've been getting is, why did it take so long to discover? And how should we be comfortable that things like this won't continue to pop up, particularly with the FAA's sort of renewed zero tolerance for noncompliant deliveries?

戴夫，Spirit 的質量下滑或逃逸，聽起來實際上已經持續了好幾年。所以我認為我們得到的自然問題是，為什麼花了這麼長時間才發現？我們應該如何放心這樣的事情不會繼續出現，特別是美國聯邦航空局對不合規交付的新零容忍態度？

Yes, Myles, I appreciate the question. This particular defect, I happen to take a look at it, by the way, along with the rest of my Board. We happen to have our shareowner meeting shortly after the issue came to our attention.

是的，邁爾斯，我很欣賞這個問題。這個特殊的缺陷，順便說一句，我和董事會的其他成員一起看了一下。在我們注意到這個問題後不久，我們恰好召開了股東大會。

It's not only a defect. It's in that app section of our airplane and very difficult to visibly assess. In fact, it's impossible to visibly assess once the process to do it is complete. So without witnessing firsthand that process in action, you're not likely to find it from that point forward. It's -- process was not standard. And importantly, there was a ceiling that was applied on top of the fitting that made it impossible to notice any cracks.

這不僅僅是一個缺陷。它位於我們飛機的應用程序部分，很難進行明顯評估。事實上，一旦流程完成，就不可能進行明顯的評估。因此，如果沒有親眼目睹該過程的運行，您就不太可能從那時起找到它。這是——流程不標準。重要的是，配件頂部有一個天花板，因此無法注意到任何裂縫。

So it's just one of those. Again, no safety implications. The margins in our designs provide for significantly greater safety protection. So anyway, I don't ever accept and I hope you don't think we might ever accept that where these things go on, but this one, in particular, very, very difficult, no matter how many people you put in the field or that Spirit puts out there to see.

所以這只是其中之一。同樣，沒有安全隱患。我們設計中的邊距提供了顯著增強的安全保護。所以無論如何，我永遠不會接受，我希望你不要認為我們可能永遠不會接受這些事情發生的地方，但是這個，特別是，非常非常困難，無論你在這個領域投入多少人或者那個精靈放在那裡看。

Anyway, the good news is we've now been through the unveiling of the issue. We've been through the rework procedures, both on the captured fuselages in our factory that have not yet gone through the subsequent stages. And we've already looked at finished good airplanes where we have to remove the fin in order to get at it.

無論如何，好消息是我們現在已經揭開了這個問題。我們已經完成了返工程序，包括在我們工廠捕獲的尚未經過後續階段的機身。我們已經研究過成品飛機，我們必須拆下尾翼才能拿到它。

And these are all now defined work scopes. And now we just get more efficient in the process of doing that reworking. That's why we're confident in our guidance. But again, we don't accept them. They are, without a doubt, over time, becoming more manageable. And things like this, I will celebrate the fact that an employee witnessed the procedure and raised his hand and said, "That doesn't look right." That is the only way that we would have ultimately found out about it. And I'm encouraging everybody in our supply chain, if they see something of that sort, to raise their hand.

這些都是現在定義的工作範圍。現在我們在進行返工的過程中變得更有效率。這就是為什麼我們對我們的指導充滿信心。但同樣，我們不接受它們。毫無疑問，隨著時間的推移，它們變得更易於管理。像這樣的事情，我會慶祝一個員工見證了這個過程並舉手說，“這看起來不對。”這是我們最終發現它的唯一途徑。我鼓勵我們供應鏈中的每個人，如果他們看到這樣的事情，請舉手。

The next question is from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe how do we think about BCA margins going forward? How do we think about the production trajectory of your impact, concessions historically in aircraft and inventory impacting BCA margins?

也許我們如何看待未來的 BCA 利潤率？我們如何看待您的影響的生產軌跡、飛機歷史上的讓步和影響 BCA 利潤率的庫存？

Yes. Thanks, Sheila, for the question. Broadly speaking, as we've said, margins will be a bit volatile this year and the next as we do a couple of big things. First, we got to liquidate the 37 and 87 inventory levels as well as shutting down those shadow factories. We also have to move through the abnormal expenses on the 87, the 777 and then prepare to ramp rates. So it will be a little up and down as we move through and get out and get out of next year.

是的。謝謝，希拉，這個問題。從廣義上講，正如我們所說，今年和明年的利潤率會有點波動，因為我們做了幾件大事。首先，我們必須清算 37 和 87 的庫存水平，並關閉那些影子工廠。我們還必須解決 87、777 的異常開支，然後準備提高利率。因此，隨著我們前進並退出並退出明年，它會有點上下波動。

In terms of the near term, I did indicate last month that the first quarter BCA margins would be lower than fourth quarter, and that's for things like the abnormal and things like the lower volume. 2Q will also be negative. But as we move into the back half of the year, the margins will improve. And of course, as Dave mentioned, by the time we get to '25, '26, we still see a path to get BCA back to the double-digit margins that you all recognize. So we got to work through what's in front of us. It's clearly defined, and we just got to execute.

就近期而言，我上個月確實表示第一季度 BCA 利潤率將低於第四季度，這是針對異常情況和較低數量等情況。 2Q也將是負面的。但隨著我們進入今年下半年，利潤率將會提高。當然，正如戴夫提到的那樣，到 25 年、26 年時，我們仍然看到了讓 BCA 回到你們都認可的兩位數利潤率的途徑。所以我們必須解決擺在我們面前的問題。它定義明確，我們只需執行即可。

The next question is from Doug Harned from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Doug Harned。

On the 787, you're on the path to reach 5 a month in Q4 and then go to 10 a month in '25, '26. And you've also had some discussions that the rate could potentially go higher longer term. Now this is all being done in Charleston. And if we go back a few years, the maximum capacity at Charleston was 7 a month.

在 787 上，您將在第四季度達到每月 5 架，然後在 25 年和 26 年達到每月 10 架。而且您還進行了一些討論，即利率可能會在長期內走高。現在這一切都在查爾斯頓完成。如果我們倒退幾年，查爾斯頓的最大容量是每月 7 個。

So as you go to 10 per month there or higher, what do you need to do in terms of investment? And how would you expect margins for the 787 out of a single facility then compared to what they were before the downturn when you were operating out of both Everett and Charleston?

那麼當你每月達到 10 或更高時，你需要在投資方面做些什麼？與經濟低迷之前同時在埃弗雷特和查爾斯頓運營的情況相比，您如何看待單一工廠 787 的利潤率？

So let me start from the back end and work my way toward the front end. As you might imagine, when you go from 2 to 1 and you optimize that 1 and you don't transport parts from one to another, you expect higher margins, and we do, and I'm confident we will achieve that.

因此，讓我從後端開始，逐步走向前端。正如您可能想像的那樣，當您從 2 到 1 並優化該 1 並且您不將零件從一個轉移到另一個時，您期望更高的利潤，而我們做到了，而且我相信我們會實現這一目標。

With respect to investment, this has a lot less to do with physical investment in equipment and more to do with how we route things through that factory. Today, our factory is pretty constrained because we have this joint verification effort that has taken up lots of space, both inside the factory and we continue to do that workup up in Everett.

關於投資，這與設備的實物投資關係不大，而更多地與我們如何通過工廠進行安排有關。今天，我們的工廠非常受限，因為我們的聯合驗證工作佔用了工廠內部的大量空間，我們將繼續在埃弗雷特進行這項工作。

So we have got to work our way through that. We have a team that works full time planning the new routings in the factories, and we're confident we can get it to 10. I don't think -- not only don't think, we don't see a big demand on investment to get us from what you noted as 7 to 10. So it's just going to take us time, and we've got to remove that joint verification effort from our business.

所以我們必須努力解決這個問題。我們有一個團隊全職規劃工廠的新路線，我們有信心可以達到 10 條。我不認為 - 不僅不認為，我們看不到很大的需求在投資上讓我們從你提到的 7 到 10。所以這只需要我們時間，我們必須從我們的業務中刪除聯合驗證工作。

And Doug, as it turns to margin, on the program margin side, we fully expect by the '25, '26 time frame to have 87 margins that are higher than they were back in '18. And it will be because of things like this consolidation to Charleston.

道格，當它轉向保證金時，在計劃保證金方面，我們完全預計到 25 年、26 年的時間框架將有 87 個利潤率高於 18 年的水平。這將是因為像查爾斯頓這樣的合併。

And also on the cash front, on the unit margin perspective, 87 margins will get better on the improved -10 content as well as the benefits that Dave described of consolidating in Charleston. So we think we've got a good plan in front of us, and we are very focused on 10. 10's the number, and there's like execution that's underwriting that.

在現金方面，從單位利潤率的角度來看，87 的利潤率將因改進的 -10 內容以及戴夫描述的在查爾斯頓整合的好處而變得更好。所以我們認為我們面前有一個很好的計劃，我們非常專注於 10。10 是這個數字，而且執行力是承保的。

The next question is from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Wanted to try to ask about the 737 pace in the near term and then also in the medium term between now and the plan you've outlined for '25. So I guess, how many units are somewhere in process somewhere in a factory? It seems like those need to be reworked before you could then restart to sort of clean off the line units.

想嘗試詢問 737 在短期內的速度，然後在從現在到您為 '25 概述的計劃之間的中期。所以我想，工廠某處有多少單位正在加工中？看起來那些需要重新加工，然後才能重新啟動以清理離線單元。

Brian, it sounds like the averaging 30 for the first 6 months, you kind of have implied second half of April as disrupted, May as maybe heavily disrupted, June starts to look normal again. Is that all correct?

布賴恩，這聽起來像是前 6 個月的平均 30，你有點暗示 4 月下半月受到干擾，5 月可能受到嚴重干擾，6 月又開始恢復正常。這一切都正確嗎？

And then in the medium term, in terms of the ramp, there's some reputable press talking about this 38 being close to the middle of the year, wanting to be at 42 early in '24 and wanting to be at 52 early in '25. I guess we know the demand is there. In a scenario where the supply chain is relatively consistent, is that at least what you're working towards?

然後在中期，就斜坡而言，有一些知名媒體談論這 38 接近年中，希望在 24 年初達到 42，並希望在 25 年初達到 52。我想我們知道需求在那裡。在供應鏈相對一致的情況下，這至少是您正在努力的方向嗎？

Yes. Let's start with that back end. So we will have a plan to get to 38. In terms of subsequent ramps to higher numbers, let's let that take care of itself. Let's focus on getting to 38. And we still believe that 50 is the number in '25, '26.

是的。讓我們從後端開始。因此，我們將有一個達到 38 的計劃。就後續增加到更高數字而言，讓我們自行解決。讓我們專注於達到 38。我們仍然相信 50 是 25 和 26 中的數字。

And in terms of the near term, so in terms of what's in front of us, we know barrel by barrel in Spirit's factory and obviously, we know everyone in our factory in terms of what's got to get done. If the unit is not too far into the production -- our production cycle, the time to take to repair one of these, it's days.

就近期而言，就擺在我們面前的事情而言，我們知道 Spirit 工廠的每一桶，顯然，我們知道我們工廠裡的每個人都需要完成什麼。如果該裝置還沒有進入生產太遠——我們的生產週期，修復其中一個所需的時間，就是幾天。

As you have the vertical fin on an airplane, obviously, it's more complicated, then it takes more time. But we will sort our way out. In the near term, getting back to production levels that are normal will be months.

由於飛機上有垂直尾翼，顯然，它更複雜，因此需要更多時間。但我們會找到出路。在短期內，恢復到正常的生產水平將需要幾個月的時間。

In terms of the inventory that we've described, the 225 finished goods inventory, 75% of those are going to have to have this fix. The good news is that this will not take us off our path to liquidate that inventory in the 37 of 225 by the -- largely by the time we get out of 2025. It's going to cost a little bit more. We provided for that -- 2024 rather, yes, liquidated by 2024. It will take a little bit more cost, but we factored that into our closing position in the first quarter.

就我們描述的庫存而言，225 個成品庫存，其中 75% 將必須進行此修復。好消息是，這不會讓我們偏離清算 225 個庫存中的 37 個庫存的道路——主要是在我們離開 2025 年的時候。它會花費更多一點。我們為此提供了 - 2024 年，是的，到 2024 年清算。這將需要更多的成本，但我們在第一季度的收盤價中考慮到了這一點。

So all in all, we think we know what's in front of us and working closely with Spirit. And as we move our way out of the short-term recovery, then we get back to an area we can start to get to the 38. And I think that the -- for us, the biggest thing is that, one, we're calling it out; and two, we have not changed the master schedule. And that's a big deal. We want to make sure that the supply chain keeps pace as we move our way through the rest of the year.

所以總而言之，我們認為我們知道擺在我們面前的是什麼，並與 Spirit 密切合作。隨著我們走出短期復甦的道路，然後我們回到一個我們可以開始達到 38 的區域。而且我認為 - 對我們來說，最重要的是，一個，我們'重新呼喚它；第二，我們沒有改變主時間表。這是一件大事。我們希望確保供應鏈在今年剩餘時間裡保持同步。

Noah, on the finished goods, by the way, it's two things to keep in mind. One, we are largely through a couple of them already. So -- and we are defining the scope of that work and again, measured in a few weeks, not measured in months. And so we're confident in that.

諾亞，關於成品，順便說一下，要記住兩件事。第一，我們已經基本上完成了其中的幾個。所以——我們再次定義了這項工作的範圍，以幾週為單位，而不是以幾個月為單位。所以我們對此充滿信心。

But the other thing to keep in mind on the finished goods is you know we have a big conformance work scope now even without that defect. A lot of that work can get done concurrently, so it's not a pure add.

但是關於成品要記住的另一件事是，你知道即使沒有那個缺陷，我們現在也有很大的一致性工作範圍。很多工作可以同時完成，所以它不是純粹的添加。

Right. Right. The finished goods, it would just seem like as long as you can rework faster than you deliver, that doesn't change your pace and the deliveries were -- the percentage of deliveries from that wasn't enormous. So that makes sense. That's what I was sort of trying to get at, what's factory, but I think I better understand it now. So appreciate all that color.

正確的。正確的。成品，只要你返工的速度比交付的速度快，這就不會改變你的步伐，而且交付是——交付的百分比並不大。所以這是有道理的。這就是我試圖達到的目的，什麼是工廠，但我想我現在更好地理解它。所以欣賞所有這些顏色。

The next question is from Rob Spingarn from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

Just a quick clarification and then a question. The clarification, the production rates you're talking about, the 38, et cetera, is that Renton only? Or does that include deliveries out of inventory from Moses -- or rather production out of Moses Lake on the mods?

只是一個快速的澄清，然後是一個問題。澄清一下，你所說的生產率，38 等等，是只有 Renton 嗎？或者這是否包括從摩西的庫存中交付——或者更確切地說，在模組上從摩西湖生產？

And then the question is on the pricing environment, just with the other guys sold-out on narrow-bodies and the 787 really being the strongest airplane out there on the wide-body side at least from a demand perspective, how has the pricing been on these big recent orders? And how do you

然後問題是定價環境，只是其他人的窄體飛機都賣光了，而 787 確實是最強大的寬體飛機，至少從需求的角度來看，定價如何在這些最近的大訂單上？你怎麼

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

as we go forward here?

當我們在這裡前進時？

You broke up a little bit at the end of your question on pricing. Could you just...

你在關於定價的問題結束時分手了一點。你能不能...

So it didn't work. Basically, I just asked you, with the sold-out conditions on the narrow-body side at Airbus, how's pricing on the MAX? And then on the wide-body side, 787 is arguably the strongest offering. So how is pricing there just given the demand situation?

所以它沒有用。基本上，我只是問你，在空客窄體飛機售罄的情況下，MAX 的定價如何？然後在寬體方面，787 可以說是最強大的產品。那麼，根據需求情況，那裡的定價如何？

Yes. Let me comment on pricing, particularly on the wide-body world. Nobody is sold-out. We're just all selling further out. So we still compete and then we -- the deliveries themselves are important competitive factor in everything that we go for and then pricing follows.

是的。讓我評論定價，特別是在寬體世界。沒有人賣完了。我們只是賣得更遠。所以我們仍然競爭，然後我們 - 交付本身是我們追求的一切的重要競爭因素，然後是定價。

So the implication that the pricing environment is firming is probably a solid point of view, and we don't discuss pricing on these calls other than to suggest that as tight as the market is, it's both the prospect of when you get your airplane and the price itself. And each and every competition, we all do what we got to do. I will say I'm very happy and pleased with the orders that we have won, and I'm sure Airbus says the same.

因此，定價環境正在穩固的暗示可能是一個可靠的觀點，我們不討論這些電話的定價，只是建議儘管市場緊張，但它既是你拿到飛機的前景，也是價格本身。每一場比賽，我們都做了我們必須做的事情。我會說我對我們贏得的訂單感到非常高興和滿意，我相信空客也這麼說。

And in your clarification question, the first part, that 38 is the final assembly number. So right now, it's at 31, movement of 38 sometime later in the year.

在您的澄清問題中，第一部分 38 是最終組裝編號。所以現在，它是 31，在今年晚些時候的某個時候移動 38。

So it's a Renton number.

所以這是一個倫頓數。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is from David Strauss from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 David Strauss。

Just following up on the MAX issue. Has Spirit fixed the manufacturing issue from their end? In other words, are fuselages coming off their line clean now? And when would you actually start to expect to see those come to you?

只是跟進 MAX 問題。 Spirit 是否從他們的角度解決了製造問題？換句話說，現在下線的機身是乾淨的嗎？你什麼時候會真正開始期待看到那些來找你？

They know the fix there, they know the scope, and they're going to start delivering clean ones imminently. So we feel good about what they've got to go do. Of course, the harder work is on our end for something that's in finished goods inventory.

他們知道那裡的修復方法，他們知道範圍，並且他們將立即開始提供乾淨的解決方案。所以我們對他們必須要做的事情感覺很好。當然，對於成品庫存中的某些東西，更艱苦的工作在我們這邊。

Okay. Quick follow-up, I think from the Investor Day, I recall the pacing item on going to 38 a month being activating the third line in Renton. Have you actually activated the third line at this point?

好的。快速跟進，我想從投資者日開始，我記得每月 38 次的節奏項目正在激活 Renton 的第三條線。此時您實際上激活了第三行嗎？

You bet.

你打賭。

And we're still moving forward on the fourth.

我們還在第四次前進。

The next question is from Jason Gursky from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Just a quick question on the outlook for orders in the commercial business. So wondering if you could kind of provide a little bit of color on your expectations from a book-to-bill perspective for the year, given the pipeline that you're seeing.

只是一個關於商業訂單前景的快速問題。因此，考慮到您所看到的管道，想知道您是否可以從今年的訂單到賬單的角度為您的期望提供一些顏色。

And I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here, getting the MAX back up in the air and China is great. Deliveries are next. But I'd also be interested to get your thoughts on the future for deliveries in China specifically.

而且我不想在這裡太超前，讓 MAX 重新升空，中國很棒。接下來是交貨。但我也有興趣了解您對未來在中國交付的具體看法。

Yes. Let me start. I want to make sure -- I want to speak out of both sides of my mouth here, if you don't mind. Number one, all of our guidance, all of our expectations are predicated on no China. So everything that we've discussed by way of production rate, supply constraints and demand in the marketplace does not factor that in, and I want to be clear about that.

是的。讓我開始吧。我想確定——如果你不介意的話，我想從我嘴巴的兩邊說出來。第一，我們所有的指導，我們所有的期望都基於沒有中國。因此，我們通過生產率、供應限制和市場需求所討論的一切都沒有考慮到這一點，我想澄清一下。

On the other hand, we are working very hard to regain China. And if and when we're able to do that, it takes risk out of the delivery of the finished goods inventory simply because there's less work to do in getting the airplanes to their originally intended customer.

另一方面，我們正在努力收復中國。如果並且當我們能夠做到這一點時，它就可以避免交付成品庫存的風險，因為將飛機交付給他們最初的目標客戶需要做的工作更少。

But it doesn't change much by way of production rates or anything along those lines because we're already -- our rates all the way out to 50 and beyond are constrained by supply. They're not -- these are not demand rates. I think we could add plenty if I thought the supply could meet it.

但它並沒有通過生產率或任何類似的方式發生太大變化，因為我們已經 - 我們的生產率一直到 50 甚至更高都受到供應的限制。他們不是——這些不是需求率。如果我認為供應可以滿足，我想我們可以增加很多。

So -- and with respect to how I think we should think about future orders, all I know is that every next order and they're sizable, and there are plenty in play as we speak, deliveries are further and further out. So now we're out, believe it or not, in the 30s.

所以——關於我認為我們應該如何考慮未來的訂單，我所知道的是每一個下一個訂單都是相當大的，而且在我們說話的時候有很多在起作用，交貨時間越來越遠。所以不管你信不信，現在我們都在 30 年代了。

So it's -- I think that's the best way to just think about it, what does the backlog support in terms of deliveries over what period of time. And right now, we're out competing in years far out, 5, 6, 7 years.

所以它 - 我認為這是最好的思考方式，積壓在什麼時間段內支持交付。而現在，我們將在很長的幾年內退出競爭，5、6、7 年。

The next question is from Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

At the November Investor Day, you laid out a forecast of cash flow of $3 billion to $5 billion this year. And since that time, you've taken a couple of shells, you see the 737, you discussed the 767, and you mentioned because of supply chain having to build to higher inventories. So there were a lot of bad guys in that revised number.

在 11 月的投資者日，您預測今年的現金流量為 30 億至 50 億美元。從那時起，你拿走了幾個砲彈，你看到了 737，你討論了 767，你提到因為供應鏈必須建立更高的庫存。所以那個修改後的數字裡有很多壞人。

What are the good guys to get you home to stay in that number? I know you had the $1 billion tanker advance, but are the advances from airline customers substantially better? What are the good things in that forecast that allow you to maintain it?

有什麼好人把你家留在那號？我知道你有 10 億美元的油輪預付款，但航空公司客戶的預付款是否好得多？該預測中有哪些優點可以讓您維持它？

Cai, let me start with a reminder, and then I'll let Brian mention one or two good guys. Sort of the tanker advance, we had always counted on. So it may have come a little earlier because of their need to get tankers in the field. But that was always counted on.

蔡，讓我先提醒一下，然後讓布萊恩提一兩個好人。有點像油輪前進，我們一直指望著。所以它可能來得早一點，因為他們需要在現場獲得油輪。但這總是被指望的。

But what we did when we gave you that guidance is we did not, like I said, expect the supply chain to come ripping back, and we never have any problems. So there was some judgment applied when we gave the range that we would have to live through some of these things.

但是，當我們為您提供指導時，我們所做的是，就像我說的那樣，我們並沒有期望供應鏈會恢復原狀，而且我們從來沒有遇到過任何問題。因此，當我們給出我們必須經歷其中一些事情的範圍時，會應用一些判斷。

Now I would suggest that one or two of these might have been a little tougher than things we were thinking about, but not much. And so anyway, that was factored into our guidance. And that will continue -- that factor continues all the way into 2024. So Brian, you might want to comment on a couple of individual things.

現在我建議其中一兩個可能比我們正在考慮的事情更難一些，但並不多。所以無論如何，這已被納入我們的指導方針。這將持續下去——這個因素一直持續到 2024 年。所以布賴恩，你可能想對一些單獨的事情發表評論。

Yes, just a couple of things. Thanks for the question, Cai. On the first quarter, 87 deliveries were a little light. We'll make that back up in the rest of the year. You mentioned the tanker benefit. That's something that we always plan for later in the year. The customer just wanted to get it done a bit sooner, which we think is good. So that's the first quarter.

是的，只有幾件事。謝謝蔡老師的提問。一季度87單交割量略顯清淡。我們將在今年餘下的時間裡進行備份。你提到了油輪的好處。這是我們在今年晚些時候一直計劃的事情。客戶只是想早點完成，我們認為這很好。所以這是第一季度。

And then in the second quarter, as I mentioned, we'll be in more of a breakeven position largely because of the 737s that are going to push out. But again, it's going to be back half benefit.

然後在第二季度，正如我提到的那樣，我們將處於更多的盈虧平衡狀態，這主要是因為 737 即將推出。但同樣，這將帶來一半的好處。

In the second half, as I think about the acceleration, it's going to be the 37 recovery, the 37 rate ramp. And there's going to be wide-bodies that are going to accelerate across the board, 777, 87, 67. So all of that's contemplated. And we've still got high conviction along that range. High end might be a little bit pressured, but we're committed to delivering that commitment of $3 billion to $5 billion.

在下半場，當我考慮加速時，這將是 37 的恢復，37 的速率斜坡。並且將會有寬體飛機全面加速，777、87、67。所以所有這些都在考慮之中。我們仍然對該範圍有很高的信心。高端可能有點壓力，但我們致力於實現 30 億至 50 億美元的承諾。

Peter Arment from RW Baird.

來自 RW Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Dave, I appreciate your comments on China. And I know you've derisked the skyline out through '26 on sort of deliveries, but seems like it's important steps that the regulator made. I'm just wondering whether you see this as that these next steps to delivery, is it customer-driven? Or is it still regulator-driven? How do you interpret that?

戴夫，我很欣賞你對中國的評論。而且我知道你已經在 26 年之前在某種交付上降低了天際線的風險，但這似乎是監管機構採取的重要步驟。我只是想知道您是否認為這是交付的這些後續步驟，它是客戶驅動的嗎？還是仍由監管機構驅動？你如何解釋？

Yes. Again, I don't want anything to get misinterpreted here. The China market, which in my view has always been the issue with respect to taking deliveries of airplanes, has come back as robustly as anyone might have imagined. And domestic travel now is at the pre-pandemic level and will continue to grow. So they need airplanes.

是的。同樣，我不希望任何東西在這裡被誤解。中國市場，在我看來一直是飛機交付的問題，已經像任何人想像的那樣強勁回歸。而國內游現在處於大流行前的水平，並將繼續增長。所以他們需要飛機。

And so I'll just sort of state as a fact that our customers, in my view, are going to need more airplanes in the relatively near to medium term. And this is a pretty easy way for them to satisfy that need.

因此，我只是陳述一個事實，即在我看來，我們的客戶將在相對近期和中期需要更多的飛機。這是他們滿足這種需求的一種非常簡單的方法。

So rather than get involved in any geopolitical discussion because no geopolitical discussion is actually required here. It's -- we have orders on the books. We have airplanes on the tarmac. And so this is just a nod from the Chinese government that they would like to take delivery of their airplanes.

所以不要捲入任何地緣政治討論，因為這裡實際上不需要地緣政治討論。這是 - 我們在書上有訂單。我們在停機坪上有飛機。因此，這只是中國政府點頭表示他們願意接收他們的飛機。

So that is the situation as it exists. And I'm going to stick with sort of my posture, if you don't mind, that all of our guidance and all of our activities are going to assume that the best things don't happen. And if they do, then we will welcome that news and get back to all of you.

這就是目前的情況。如果你不介意的話，我將堅持我的立場，即我們所有的指導和我們所有的活動都將假設最好的事情不會發生。如果他們這樣做了，那麼我們將歡迎這個消息並回復大家。

The next question is from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Dave, I wonder if we just talk for a second about Spirit in a broader context. I think the current issue might even predate the grounding, but they've been struggling there on a couple of different fronts lately.

戴夫，我想知道我們是否只是在更廣泛的背景下談談精神。我認為當前的問題甚至可能早於停飛，但他們最近一直在幾個不同的方面苦苦掙扎。

And the idea of moving to 38 and then to 50 is you can only go as fast as they can go. And it's pretty understandable because I don't think anybody has had a more challenging 3 or 4 years than Spirit other than maybe you guys.

升至 38 級然後升至 50 級的想法是，你的速度只能和他們的速度一樣快。這是可以理解的，因為我認為除了你們之外，沒有人比 Spirit 的 3 或 4 年更具挑戰性。

But how are you going to make sure that they're there to support that rate increase for you maybe more broadly, and then with a specific reference to the big labor contract that they have coming up in June?

但是，您將如何確保他們可能更廣泛地支持您的加息，然後具體參考他們在 6 月份提出的大型勞動合同？

Well, I'll be optimistic about the labor contract. I think as you might guess, I suspect their workers know the situation they're in. They know that they've got to deliver for Boeing, and my guess is they'll all get to a palatable answer. It's not my control, so you'll have to ask Tom about that.

好吧，我會看好勞動合同。我想你可能會猜到，我懷疑他們的工人知道他們所處的情況。他們知道他們必須為波音公司交付貨物，我猜他們都會得到一個令人滿意的答案。這不是我能控制的，所以你得問湯姆。

I am confident in their ability to ramp with us. We were on a steady course to keep them ahead of us in this ramp rate, and they were on a reasonable course there. This last defect will slow them down in measures in weeks and months, not in years and will not impede their ability to get to our rate increases.

我對他們與我們一起發展的能力充滿信心。我們在一個穩定的過程中讓他們在這個爬升率上領先於我們，而且他們在那裡的過程是合理的。最後一個缺陷將使他們在數周和數月內放慢措施，而不是數年，並且不會阻礙他們實現我們的加息。

We're going to stay present with Spirit. We're in their factories, we're talking to their people. As I said, there's a couple of ways you can look at this issue that came up. Like I said, it's normally -- it was difficult to find, but an employee raised their hand and noticed a bad procedure and everybody jumped on it.

我們將與 Spirit 保持聯繫。我們在他們的工廠裡，我們正在與他們的員工交談。正如我所說，您可以通過多種方式來看待出現的這個問題。就像我說的，這通常是——很難找到，但是一名員工舉手發現了一個糟糕的程序，每個人都跳了上去。

Within a week, we had this resolved with the FAA. We had a clear picture of the airplanes that were impacted, and we were all at work on the rework. That is a signal of a healthy supply chain, not a weak one.

一周之內，我們與美國聯邦航空局解決了這個問題。我們清楚地了解了受影響的飛機，我們都在進行返工。這是一個健康供應鏈的信號，而不是弱供應鏈。

And so we're going to maintain that attitude. We're going to continue to work constructively with Spirit. Brian mentioned you our willingness to advance them cash during this moment while they go through their recovery stages. So yes, we're going to stay constructive.

因此，我們將保持這種態度。我們將繼續與 Spirit 建設性地合作。布賴恩向您提到，我們願意在他們經歷恢復階段的這一刻向他們預支現金。所以是的，我們將保持建設性。

I have confidence that Tom and the team at Spirit can get ahead of this. And I -- and we have been on the rate increase request and supply chain requests with them for quite some time, and we are confident they can get there.

我有信心湯姆和 Spirit 的團隊能夠領先於此。我——我們已經與他們一起處理加息請求和供應鏈請求很長一段時間了，我們相信他們能做到。

The next question is from Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Following up on the supplier master agreement schedule -- or sorry, the supplier master schedule for the 737 MAX, how long will the supply chain be at a higher production rate than your final production rate? And how much is that inventory build going to cost?

跟進供應商主協議時間表——或者抱歉，737 MAX 的供應商主時間表，供應鏈的生產率高於最終生產率的時間有多長？庫存建設的成本是多少？

Yes. It's a matter of months, Kristine. Thanks for the question. It's a matter of months, and the inventory is all contemplated in our forward look. It's not anything we worry too much about. In fact, again, another indication of how we're thinking about this, we're perfectly comfortable keeping everyone at pace and hold a little buffer.

是的。這是幾個月的事，克里斯汀。謝謝你的問題。這是幾個月的事情，我們的前瞻性考慮了所有庫存。這不是我們太擔心的事情。事實上，再次表明我們是如何考慮這個問題的，我們非常願意讓每個人都保持同步並保持一點緩衝。

We think that's a better alternative than keeping it a little bit too close to the wire. And we're going to keep having that posture, and that's going to help us get to 38 and then beyond.

我們認為這比讓它離電線太近一點更好。我們將繼續保持這種姿態，這將幫助我們達到 38 歲甚至更高。

Great. And a follow-up on Seth's question on the labor agreement with Spirit. Should we see a production disruption at Spirit? What are mitigating actions you could take? And are there things that you could do to make it easier for you to meet your targets if, again, there is a production disruption at Spirit?

偉大的。以及賽斯關於與 Spirit 的勞動協議的問題的後續行動。我們應該看到 Spirit 的生產中斷嗎？您可以採取哪些緩解措施？如果 Spirit 再次出現生產中斷，您是否可以做一些事情來使您更容易實現目標？

Yes, I'm not going to speculate on that. I'm going to assume that our supplier and the workforce at our supplier are good enough and smart enough and can play far enough ahead to not worry about that.

是的，我不會對此進行推測。我將假設我們的供應商和我們供應商的員工足夠好，足夠聰明，並且可以走得足夠遠，不必擔心這一點。

And Lois, we have time for one final question.

Lois，我們還有時間問最後一個問題。

That will come from Matt Akers from Wells Fargo.

這將來自富國銀行的 Matt Akers。

Can you touch on BGS margins in the quarter? I think this is like the highest you put it since you broke that out. I know you mentioned the mix was positive, but can you say how much of that benefit was? I think this is kind of like a mid-teens margin pre-COVID. Should we expect to kind of gravitate back to that level? Or could it be kind of a little bit higher here?

你能談談本季度的 BGS 利潤率嗎？我認為這就像你打破它以來的最高價。我知道你提到過這種組合是積極的，但你能說出其中有多少好處嗎？我認為這有點像 COVID 前的十幾歲保證金。我們是否應該期望回到那個水平？或者這裡可以稍微高一點？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We love the service business, right? It's a franchise that goes on for years and years and years. And the good news is, is that, as Dave mentioned, on the commercial side, we're back to pre-pandemic levels. That's a healthy sign. And the team is very focused on profitable, capital-efficient growth. And that's important in the service business. So I think we're set up very well.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我們熱愛服務行業，對吧？這是一個持續多年的特許經營權。好消息是，正如戴夫提到的那樣，在商業方面，我們回到了大流行前的水平。這是一個健康的跡象。該團隊非常專注於盈利、資本高效的增長。這在服務業務中很重要。所以我認為我們的設置非常好。

The quarter, a little bit of a mix benefit. But overall, we're set up very well to deliver a mid-single-digit revenue growth business with mid-teens margins and a high cash flow conversion just like we set out in November. And we get more and more confident about that business and the team that's running it. So I think it's going to accrue to our benefit over the next several years.

本季度，有點混合收益。但總的來說，我們的設置非常好，可以實現中等個位數的收入增長業務，利潤率達到中等水平，現金流轉換率很高，就像我們在 11 月份設定的那樣。我們對這項業務和運營它的團隊越來越有信心。所以我認為這將在未來幾年內為我們帶來好處。

And if I just think in my short 3 years or maybe it feels long, we made a lot of changes to services, and we tightened up the capital disciplines in a pretty significant way. They all leaned in favor of higher margin, more intellectual property content in our work that we do.

如果我只是想在我短短的 3 年裡，或者可能感覺很長，我們對服務進行了很多改變，並且我們以非常重要的方式收緊了資本紀律。他們都傾向於在我們所做的工作中獲得更高的利潤、更多的知識產權內容。

And of course, we now have a supply-constrained market around that. So I'm not surprised these margins have expanded, and I'm not expecting them to go down. I think the team is doing a great job.

當然，我們現在有一個供應受限的市場。所以我對這些利潤率的擴大並不感到驚訝，我也不希望它們下降。我認為團隊做得很好。

And that concludes our first quarter earnings call. Thank you, everybody.

我們的第一季度財報電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the Boeing First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，波音公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。