波音 (BA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions) At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for the Boeing Company. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

謝謝你的支持。大家好，歡迎來到波音公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。管理層討論和幻燈片演示，以及分析師問答環節都在互聯網上直播。 （操作員說明）此時，為了進行開場白和介紹，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁 Matt Welch 先生。韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Boeing's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation at boeing.com. As always, detailed financial information is included in today's press release.

謝謝，早上好。歡迎來到波音 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。我是馬特·韋爾奇，今天和我一起的有波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩；和波音公司執行副總裁兼首席財務官布賴恩韋斯特。提醒一下，您可以在 boeing.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。一如既往，詳細的財務信息包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Furthermore, projections, estimates and goals included in today's discussion involve risks including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of the web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures. Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

此外，今天討論中包含的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和網絡演示文稿末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解某些非 GAAP 措施的披露和對賬情況。現在我將把電話轉給戴夫卡爾霍恩。

Thanks, Matt. Good morning. Thanks to all of you for joining us this morning. Last time we were together was the second of November, where we had a chance for the first time, at least in my 3-year tenure to talk about guidance and expectations for the years ahead. The good news is we had a very solid fourth quarter, a quarter that, in my view, puts us in good stead to step forward and meet the guidance that we have delivered to all of you.

謝謝，馬特。早上好。感謝大家今天早上加入我們。上一次我們在一起是在 11 月 2 日，至少在我 3 年的任期內，我們第一次有機會討論未來幾年的指導和期望。好消息是我們有一個非常穩健的第四季度，在我看來，這個季度使我們能夠向前邁進並滿足我們向大家提供的指導。

Not only have we taken big steps to reduce the risks that, of course, we've faced over the last 3 years but importantly, we're well on our way to restoring the operational and financial strength that we got used to prior to our MAX moment. Challenges remain, we have a lot to do, but overall, we're feeling pretty good about the way we closed '22 and we're well positioned for '23 and beyond.

當然，我們不僅採取了重大步驟來降低我們在過去 3 年中面臨的風險，而且重要的是，我們正在努力恢復我們在我們之前習慣的運營和財務實力最大時刻。挑戰依然存在，我們還有很多工作要做，但總的來說，我們對結束 22 年的方式感覺非常好，我們為 23 年及以後做好了準備。

Our key metric, as everybody knows, is free cash flow. Importantly, we were able to generate more than $3 billion in free cash flow in the fourth quarter driven by the progress in our performance and importantly, continued strong demand. And this helped us generate positive full year cash flow for the first time since 2018, a very important turnaround metric for us.

眾所周知，我們的關鍵指標是自由現金流。重要的是，在我們業績的進步以及持續強勁的需求的推動下，我們在第四季度能夠產生超過 30 億美元的自由現金流。這幫助我們自 2018 年以來首次產生了正的全年現金流，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的周轉指標。

Several key milestones and events that I'd like to highlight. Let's start with the BCA deliveries, which I know everyone tracks. '22 total was 480 with 69 deliveries in December. Notably, the 737 deliveries, we had 387 and exceeded our target of 375 and it included 31 787s as we unwound inventory and delivered from the production line following the important return to delivery over the course of the summer.

我想強調幾個關鍵的里程碑和事件。讓我們從 BCA 交付開始，我知道每個人都會跟踪它。 '22 總數為 480，12 月交付了 69 輛。值得注意的是，737 的交付量，我們有 387 架，超過了我們 375 架的目標，其中包括 31 787 架，因為我們在夏季重要的恢復交付後清空庫存並從生產線交付。

On the order front, and on the market side, we continue to see very strong demand across the portfolio. More than 800 net orders on the year, driven by the 737 MAX and the 787 highlighted most recently by the very historic deal with UAL, United Airlines in December. In 2022, we sold 200-plus net wide bodies. That's the most since 2018.

在訂單方面和市場方面，我們繼續看到整個產品組合的需求非常強勁。在 737 MAX 和 787 的推動下，今年的淨訂單超過 800 架，最近在 12 月與美國聯合航空公司 UAL 達成的具有歷史意義的交易中突顯了這一點。 2022 年，我們淨售出 200 多架寬體飛機。這是自 2018 年以來最多的一次。

More broadly, the 737 MAX team has made tremendous progress. Fleet is performing exceptionally well. Production is stabilizing, demand is strong. We delivered 1,000-plus 737 MAXs in total now. And since our return to service, the fleet has surpassed 3 million flight hours. It's safe and it's the most reliable of the airplane fleets.

更廣泛地說，737 MAX 團隊取得了巨大進步。艦隊表現異常出色。生產穩定，需求旺盛。我們現在總共交付了 1,000 多架 737 MAX。自我們恢復服務以來，機隊飛行時間已超過 300 萬小時。它很安全，而且是機隊中最可靠的。

Production, we've all gone from 0 to 31 a month and we're prioritizing stability, which we have not yet achieved, but we're on a steady course to do so. And orders, more than 1,500 gross orders to date. 737 MAX returning to service in China is another indication of this overall improvement in our business.

生產，我們每個月都從 0 增加到 31，我們將穩定性放在首位，我們尚未實現這一點，但我們正在穩步實現這一目標。和訂單，迄今為止總訂單量超過 1,500。 737 MAX 在中國恢復服務是我們業務全面改善的另一個跡象。

This month, of course, we all know that, that occurred. We have more airplanes on the tarmac in China to bring back into service just as we did here in the U.S. before we began any deliveries of any sort. And I'm not going to guess going forward, when deliveries may or may not start, as everyone knows in our guidance, we have derisked for that possibility.

這個月，當然，我們都知道，那件事發生了。在我們開始任何形式的交付之前，我們在中國的停機坪上有更多的飛機可以重新投入使用，就像我們在美國這裡所做的那樣。而且我不會猜測未來，當交付可能會或可能不會開始時，正如我們的指導中的每個人都知道的那樣，我們已經取消了這種可能性。

737 MAX 7 and 10, everybody knows, we got our extension approved and attached to legislation at the end of the year. That was a very important moment. I'll remind everyone that, that doesn't mean that these were certified. It simply means that the FAA and Boeing can follow the existing application and do that job and do it the right way. So we feel very, very good about having derisked that moment as well. I will also want to point out, every argument we made on behalf of that extension related to safety. The premise for our chosen course and the application that we filed with safety first and it will always be safety first.

737 MAX 7 和 10，大家都知道，我們的延期在年底獲得批准並附在立法中。那是一個非常重要的時刻。我會提醒大家，這並不意味著這些已經過認證。它只是意味著美國聯邦航空局和波音公司可以按照現有的申請並以正確的方式完成這項工作。因此，我們也對擺脫那一刻感到非常非常高興。我還想指出，我們代表該延期提出的每一個論點都與安全有關。我們選擇課程和申請的前提是安全第一，而且永遠是安全第一。

Following defense. Our SLS launch, this was an enormous emotional upper for our company and for our team broadly. The Artemis I launch in November, which was powered by the SLS rocket was more than a little inspiring. And I'd like to congratulate the NASA team broadly for the succession of the Starliner mission.

繼防禦。我們的 SLS 發布，這對我們公司和我們的團隊來說是一個巨大的鼓舞。我在 11 月發射的由 SLS 火箭提供動力的 Artemis 非常鼓舞人心。我要廣泛祝賀 NASA 團隊成功完成 Starliner 任務。

It's an incredible success, incredible, and it went beautifully and almost flawlessly every step of the way. So again, a significant accomplishment for space travel in general. But that rocket, again, just shows what Boeing is capable of when we put our minds to it, we follow our disciplines, we stay patient and ultimately prove to the world that there's more to do in space.

這是一個令人難以置信的成功，令人難以置信，而且每一步都進行得很漂亮，幾乎完美無缺。因此，總體而言，這是太空旅行的一項重大成就。但是，那枚火箭再次展示了波音的能力，只要我們下定決心，我們遵守紀律，我們保持耐心，並最終向世界證明，在太空中還有更多事情要做。

Following Global Services, another terrific story, it is simply following the recovery of our industry in general and everywhere in the world. So we had a great quarter pretty much across the board. We continue to grow. We continue to invest so that we are prepared to support our customers as they bring their airlines back to where they were before COVID. So we'll reaffirm our guidance.

繼全球服務之後，另一個了不起的故事，它只是在我們的行業在世界各地普遍復甦之後。所以我們幾乎全面地度過了一個很棒的季度。我們繼續成長。我們繼續投資，以便我們準備好支持我們的客戶，因為他們將他們的航空公司帶回到 COVID 之前的狀態。因此，我們將重申我們的指導。

And with this progress, which we feel good about both the financial and the operational outlook that we shared with you in November, and that includes the cash flow, the delivery ranges that we set for '23 as well as for the 2025 and 2026 time frame.

隨著這一進展，我們對 11 月份與您分享的財務和運營前景感到滿意，其中包括現金流、我們為 23 年以及 2025 年和 2026 年設定的交付範圍框架。

Our realities are still the same, a difficult, difficult supply chain. And while average deliveries met our objectives, we continue to face a few too many stoppages in our lines simply so that we do not travel work as we run into supply chain shortfalls. So those stoppages, while they are coming down are not where they need to be as we think about stable rates going forward.

我們的現實還是一樣，困難重重的供應鏈。雖然平均交付量達到了我們的目標，但我們的生產線仍然面臨著太多次停工，只是為了避免在遇到供應鏈短缺時出差工作。因此，當我們考慮未來的穩定利率時，這些停工雖然正在下降，但並不是他們需要的地方。

I will not, in this discussion and/or in Q&A, highlight any 1 supplier within the supply chain. Know that we're working with all of them. There's a significant amount of transparency in those discussions between them, between us and everybody is focused on the rate improvements that we have outlined to all of you. All things considered and reflecting on these last few years, we're feeling pretty good about where we stand heading into this year.

在本次討論和/或問答中，我不會強調供應鏈中的任何一個供應商。知道我們正在與他們所有人合作。他們之間的討論非常透明，我們和每個人之間的討論都集中在我們向大家概述的費率改進上。考慮並反思過去幾年的所有事情，我們對今年的進展感覺非常好。

Demand, very strong portfolio, very well positioned. We have faced plenty of tests in a number of orders all around the world with some of our toughest customers, and we know this portfolio is well positioned. We have a robust pipeline of development programs, including broadly across our defense business, and we're innovating new capabilities that prepare us for the next generation of products.

需求，非常強大的產品組合，定位非常好。我們在世界各地的一些最嚴苛的客戶的訂單中面臨著大量測試，我們知道這個產品組合定位良好。我們擁有強大的開發計劃管道，包括廣泛的國防業務，我們正在創新新功能，為下一代產品做好準備。

One of the more significant achievements was recently announced by NASA in their Sustainable Flight Demonstrator contract. This is a set of technologies that's intending to cut fuel emissions by up to 30%. Those are the kind of standards that, in our view, are required to ultimately launch a new commercial airplane wrapped in sustainability.

美國國家航空航天局最近在其可持續飛行演示合同中宣布了一項更重要的成就。這是一套旨在將燃料排放量減少多達 30% 的技術。在我們看來，這些標準是最終推出具有可持續性的新型商用飛機所必需的。

We've derisked major aspects of the business, and our performance is improving. We're embedding lean across our operations to drive productivity ultimately to achieve the kinds of targets that we've set out. We've got work to do, but we're feeling really good about our progress. We're proud of our team, and we're confident in the future. With that, I'll turn it over to Brian West.

我們已經消除了業務的主要方面的風險，我們的業績正在改善。我們將精益嵌入到我們的運營中，以提高生產力，最終實現我們設定的各種目標。我們有工作要做，但我們對我們的進展感覺非常好。我們為我們的團隊感到自豪，我們對未來充滿信心。有了這個，我會把它交給布賴恩韋斯特。

Great. Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Let's go to the next page and cover the fourth quarter financial results. Revenue in the fourth quarter came in at $20 billion. That's up 35% year-over-year, driven by higher commercial volume. Core operating margin was negative 3.3%, and the core loss per share was $1.75. Both the margin and the loss per share were significantly better than prior year and impacted in the quarter by period expenses and abnormal costs.

偉大的。謝謝，戴夫，大家早上好。讓我們轉到下一頁，介紹第四季度的財務業績。第四季度的收入為 200 億美元。在商業交易量增加的推動下，同比增長 35%。核心營業利潤率為負 3.3%，每股核心虧損為 1.75 美元。利潤率和每股虧損都明顯好於上年，並且在本季度受到期間費用和異常成本的影響。

From a free cash flow perspective, our primary financial metric was positive $3.1 billion for the quarter, up significantly versus the prior year on higher deliveries and strong order activity and up sequentially versus the prior quarter and a bit better than our original estimate. I'll take a minute to go through each of the business units. Moving on to the next page with BCA. BCA revenue in the fourth quarter was $9.2 billion.

從自由現金流的角度來看，我們本季度的主要財務指標為正 31 億美元，由於交付量增加和訂單活動強勁，與上一年相比顯著增長，並且比上一季度環比增長，略好於我們最初的估計。我將花一點時間介紹一下每個業務部門。使用 BCA 進入下一頁。 BCA 第四季度的收入為 92 億美元。

That's up 94% year-over-year driven by higher 787 and 737 deliveries, partially offset by 787 customer considerations. On the operating margins, they were negative 6.8% in the quarter, seemingly better than a year ago and in the quarter driven by abnormal costs and higher period expenses, including higher R&D spending.

受 787 和 737 交付量增加的推動，同比增長 94%，部分被 787 客戶的考慮所抵消。在營業利潤率方面，本季度的營業利潤率為負 6.8%，似乎好於一年前，而且本季度受到異常成本和更高的期間費用（包括更高的研發支出）的推動。

I'll take a minute to go through a few highlights of the major programs, starting with the 737. We had 110 deliveries in the fourth quarter and 387 for the full year, slightly ahead of our estimate. We ended the year with 250 MAX airplanes in inventory, 30 of which were Dash 7 and Dash 10s, and we had 138 for customers in China.

我將花一點時間來介紹主要項目的一些亮點，首先是 737。我們在第四季度交付了 110 架，全年交付了 387 架，略高於我們的預期。到年底，我們有 250 架 MAX 飛機庫存，其中 30 架是 Dash 7 和 Dash 10，我們有 138 架供中國客戶使用。

We do expect the monthly deliveries from inventory to slow slightly as fewer airplanes will be available, combined with some impact from the Dash 7, Dash 10 builds. We still expect most inventoried airplanes will be delivered by the end of 2024. On the 787, we had 22 deliveries in the fourth quarter and 31% for the full year. We ended the year with 100 airplanes in inventory, most of which will be delivered by the end of 2024.

我們確實預計，由於可用飛機減少，加上 Dash 7、Dash 10 構建的一些影響，庫存的月度交付會略有放緩。我們仍然預計大多數庫存飛機將在 2024 年底交付。在 787 上，我們在第四季度交付了 22 架飛機，全年交付了 31%。年底我們有 100 架飛機庫存，其中大部分將在 2024 年底交付。

We booked $350 million of abnormal costs in the quarter, taking the total to date to $1.7 billion. We're increasing the abnormal accounting estimate by about $600 million to roughly $2.8 billion in total as we will be under the 5 per month production rate a bit longer than expected due to a supplier constraint that has temporarily slowed production.

我們在本季度登記了 3.5 億美元的異常成本，使迄今為止的總額達到 17 億美元。我們將異常會計估計增加了約 6 億美元，總計約 28 億美元，因為由於供應商限制暫時減緩了生產，我們將低於每月 5 件的生產率比預期的要長一些。

We still expect to hit 5 per month this year. Our total year delivery guidance of 70 to 80 is unchanged, and there is no change to the 2023 cash flows. 77 orders were strong in the quarter, and we've added 100 airplanes to the accounting quantity, which increases our GAAP program margin. On the 777X, the program timeline is holding and efforts are ongoing. Abnormal costs were $112 million in the quarter, and there is no change to the $1.5 billion total estimate.

我們仍然預計今年每月會達到 5 個。我們 70 至 80 年的總交付指導不變，2023 年現金流量也沒有變化。本季度有 77 架訂單強勁，我們在會計數量中增加了 100 架飛機，這增加了我們的 GAAP 計劃利潤率。在 777X 上，計劃時間表已確定，工作正在進行中。本季度的異常成本為 1.12 億美元，15 億美元的總預估沒有變化。

On the customer settlement front, we continue to make good progress resolving contractual issues on the 3 big programs. The 737 MAX is near the finish line with the vast majority of customers settled.

在客戶結算方面，我們繼續在解決三大項目的合同問題方面取得良好進展。 737 MAX 已接近尾聲，絕大多數客戶已落戶。

Of the original $9.3 billion that [were] set aside, there's only 3% left. On the 787, a year ago, we included a significant provision in the program, which has been very stable. There are far fewer customers in the MAX, and we've already reached agreement with several, all in line with our estimates. On the 777X, there are even fewer customers and discussions are ongoing.

在最初預留的 93 億美元中，只剩下 3%。在 787 上，一年前，我們在該計劃中加入了一項重要規定，該計劃一直非常穩定。 MAX 的客戶要少得多，我們已經與幾個客戶達成協議，都符合我們的估計。在 777X 上，客戶就更少了，討論還在進行中。

Keep in mind that the revenue and cash impact of these settlements will be over several years and all contemplated in both the near- and long-term financial guidance. Finally, on the orders front for BCA, we booked 376 orders in the quarter and have over 4,500 airplanes in backlog valued at $330 billion.

請記住，這些和解的收入和現金影響將持續數年，並且在近期和長期財務指南中都會考慮到。最後，在 BCA 的訂單方面，我們在本季度預訂了 376 份訂單，積壓的飛機數量超過 4,500 架，價值 3,300 億美元。

Moving on to the next page, I'll cover BDS. BDS revenues in the fourth quarter were $6.2 billion, up 5% year-over-year. Operating margins were 1.8%. And if you include services, defense margins would be 200 basis points higher to 4%. There are 2 things impacting BDS margins in the quarter.

轉到下一頁，我將介紹 BDS。 BDS 第四季度的收入為 62 億美元，同比增長 5%。營業利潤率為 1.8%。如果將服務包括在內，國防利潤率將提高 200 個基點，達到 4%。本季度有兩件事影響 BDS 利潤率。

First, we felt the operational impact of supply chain constraints in labor and stability. Second, we saw adverse timing of certain cost accrual true-ups, including higher pension costs that flow through the P&L in the quarter a big focus for the BDS leadership team to improve execution stability both in the factory and in the supply base.

首先，我們感受到供應鏈約束對勞動力和穩定性的運營影響。其次，我們看到某些成本應計調整的不利時機，包括本季度流經損益表的更高養老金成本，這是 BDS 領導團隊提高工廠和供應基地執行穩定性的一大重點。

Some additional highlights, as Dave mentioned, we're very proud of Artemis I successful mission to the moon last November, and we delivered 45 aircraft in the quarter, including the first P8 to New Zealand as well as 3 satellites, including the first 2 O3B mPower units. We received $7 billion in orders during the quarter. including a contract for 2 KC-46A Tankers from Japan and an award for 12 Chinook helicopters from the Egyptian Air Force. The BDS backlog is at $54 billion.

一些額外的亮點，正如 Dave 提到的，我們為 Artemis I 去年 11 月成功登月任務感到非常自豪，我們在本季度交付了 45 架飛機，包括第一架 P8 到新西蘭以及 3 顆衛星，包括前 2 顆O3B mPower 單位。我們在本季度收到了 70 億美元的訂單。包括來自日本的 2 架 KC-46A 加油機合同和來自埃及空軍的 12 架支奴干直升機的合同。 BDS 積壓訂單為 540 億美元。

Moving on to the next page, Global Services. BGS had another strong quarter, primarily driven by our parts and distribution business. BGS revenue was $4.6 billion, up 6% year-over-year and operating margin was 13.9%.

轉到下一頁，全球服務。 BGS 有另一個強勁的季度，主要是由我們的零件和分銷業務推動的。 BGS 收入為 46 億美元，同比增長 6%，營業利潤率為 13.9%。

Commercial volume was very strong, partially offset by some softness in the government space. We received $5 billion in orders during the quarter, including an F-15 depot support order for the U.S. Air Force, and we opened up the Germany distribution center. The BGS backlog is $19 billion.

商業交易量非常強勁，部分被政府領域的疲軟所抵消。我們在本季度收到了 50 億美元的訂單，包括美國空軍的 F-15 基地支持訂單，我們還開設了德國配送中心。 BGS 積壓訂單為 190 億美元。

Moving on to the full year, the next page. Full year financial results, revenue came in at $66.6 billion. That's 5% up year-over-year driven by higher commercial volume, offset by lower defense revenue. Core operating margin was negative 7% and the core loss per share was over $11 both a bit worse reflecting the impact of defense charges taken earlier in the year.

轉到全年，下一頁。全年財務業績，收入為 666 億美元。由於商業交易量增加，國防收入減少抵消了同比增長 5%。核心營業利潤率為負 7%，每股核心虧損超過 11 美元，兩者均較差，反映了今年早些時候採取的國防費用的影響。

And on free cash flow, we generated $2.3 billion positive free cash flow in the year up significantly from the prior year driven by higher deliveries and order activity. Moving on to the next page. I just want to put that $2.3 billion of free cash flow in perspective.

在自由現金流方面，由於交付量和訂單活動增加，我們在這一年產生了 23 億美元的正自由現金流，較上年大幅增長。轉到下一頁。我只想正確看待這 23 億美元的自由現金流。

As you can see from the chart on the left, we've made a lot of progress over the last 3 years. 2020 was a usage of $20 billion of cash, 2021 improved but was still a usage of $4 billion of cash, in 2022, $2.3 billion positive. As Dave mentioned, a lot of work that's been done and more work to do.

從左圖可以看出，我們在過去 3 年取得了很大進步。 2020 年使用了 200 億美元現金，2021 年有所改善但仍使用了 40 億美元現金，2022 年為 23 億美元。正如 Dave 提到的，很多工作已經完成，還有更多工作要做。

The team is pretty proud to get back to positive territory. It's been the 737 return to service and the deliveries that are ramping. It's been the 787, it's been restarted. It's been the commercial market recovery that's been a benefit along the way with a very strong order book, reflecting our customers' confidence in our product lineup. And of course, our service business has held up incredibly well. It was a good exit to 2022, and we expect momentum to continue for 2023.

該團隊非常自豪能夠回到積極的領域。這是 737 恢復服務和交付量的增加。原來是 787，它已經重新啟動了。商業市場的複蘇帶來了非常強勁的訂單，這反映了我們的客戶對我們產品系列的信心。當然，我們的服務業務表現得非常好。這是到 2022 年的一個很好的退出，我們預計 2023 年的勢頭將持續下去。

Moving on to the next page, cash and debt. On the cash and marketable securities front, we ended the year with $17.2 billion, up $3 billion versus the third quarter and we had $12 billion of revolving credit facilities, all of which remain undrawn.

轉到下一頁，現金和債務。在現金和有價證券方面，我們在年底時獲得了 172 億美元，比第三季度增加了 30 億美元，我們有 120 億美元的循環信貸額度，所有這些都沒有動用。

On the debt side, we finished the year with $57 billion in debt. And as a reminder, our investment-grade credit rating continues to be a top priority. Our liquidity position is strong, and we're very comfortable satisfying near-term maturities, and the overall plan continues to be deliver airplanes, generate cash, pay down debt.

在債務方面，我們以 570 億美元的債務結束了這一年。提醒一下，我們的投資級信用評級仍然是重中之重。我們的流動性狀況良好，我們很樂意滿足近期到期的需求，總體計劃繼續交付飛機、產生現金、償還債務。

Moving on to the next page, 2023. Our financial outlook for 2023 is unchanged from what we shared in November. Operating cash flow in total will be between $4.5 billion and $6.5 billion. We'll reinvest about $1.5 billion in CapEx for a net free cash flow of $3 billion to $5 billion in 2023.

轉到下一頁，2023 年。我們對 2023 年的財務展望與我們在 11 月分享的展望相同。運營現金流總額將在 45 億美元至 65 億美元之間。我們將在資本支出中再投資約 15 億美元，以在 2023 年實現 30 億至 50 億美元的淨自由現金流。

As we start the year, overall demand remains strong. Global pass-through traffic increased almost 70% in 2022, and we're at 75% of pre-pandemic levels globally. If you take out China, that number grows to over 90%. So demand is pretty robust and reflective of our order book. Our priority continues to be execution stability. And while we still see some disruptions in the factory and the supply chain, we're hard at work with our partners to address these issues and ultimately focused on meeting our customer commitments.

今年伊始，整體需求依然強勁。到 2022 年，全球直通流量增加了近 70%，我們在全球範圍內處於大流行前水平的 75%。如果除去中國，這個數字會增長到 90% 以上。所以需求非常強勁，反映了我們的訂單。我們的首要任務仍然是執行穩定性。雖然我們仍然看到工廠和供應鏈出現一些中斷，但我們正在與合作夥伴一起努力解決這些問題，並最終專注於履行我們對客戶的承諾。

On the segment operating cash flow, same numbers as November, BDS, we expect to be a usage of between $0.5 billion and $1 billion of cash. BGS will generate between $2.5 billion and $3 billion, and BCA will generate between $2.5 million and $3.5 billion. On the commercial delivery front, 737 deliveries are unchanged and between 400 and 450 airplanes, 787 deliveries are unchanged between 70 and 80 airplanes, and we've added a couple of items on the expense front.

在業務現金流方面，與 11 月 BDS 相同的數字，我們預計將使用 5 億至 10 億美元的現金。 BGS 將產生 25 億至 30 億美元，BCA 將產生 250 萬至 35 億美元。在商業交付方面，737 架交付量保持不變，在 400 到 450 架飛機之間，787 架交付量在 70 到 80 架飛機之間沒有變化，我們在費用方面增加了幾個項目。

We expect R&D for 2023 to come in at about $3.2 billion versus $2.9 billion in 2022. The vast majority of this increase will be in BCA. We also have unallocated eliminations in other which will be relatively in line with 2022 at $1.6 billion. One important thing to note is on the quarterly phasing, it will look very similar to last year as both deliveries and the financials will improve throughout the course of the year.

我們預計 2023 年的研發收入約為 32 億美元，而 2022 年為 29 億美元。這一增長的絕大部分將用於 BCA。我們在其他方面也有未分配的消除，這將與 2022 年相對一致，為 16 億美元。需要注意的一個重要事項是季度分階段，它看起來與去年非常相似，因為交付和財務狀況將在整個一年中有所改善。

On the first quarter specifically, EPS will be an improvement over 4Q 2022 but remain in a loss position. And cash will still be a usage in the first quarter, although an improvement from the first quarter of 2022. Overall, we're squarely focused on free cash flow. And it's so far so good as we enter 2023.

具體到第一季度，每股收益將比 2022 年第四季度有所改善，但仍處於虧損狀態。儘管與 2022 年第一季度相比有所改善，但第一季度仍將使用現金。總體而言，我們完全專注於自由現金流。到目前為止，我們進入 2023 年時一切順利。

Moving on to the last page, 2025, 2026 long-term guidance. Same page we showed you in November, $10 billion of free cash flow is still our objective. And it's important to note that margins and EPS are important, but they will be uneven over the next 2 years. As we unwind the BCA inventory, we put the BCA abnormal costs behind us, and we get the BDS margins back on track to its normal trajectory.

轉到最後一頁，2025 年、2026 年的長期指導。我們在 11 月向您展示的同一頁面，100 億美元的自由現金流仍然是我們的目標。需要注意的是，利潤率和每股收益很重要，但在未來 2 年內它們將不平衡。當我們解除 BCA 庫存時，我們將 BCA 異常成本拋在腦後，我們使 BDS 利潤率回到正常軌跡。

We're still confident that this plan is underpinned by things we largely control, one, productivity; two, the commercial rate ramp; three, services growth; and four, the transition of key defense programs from development to production. Overall, we're as confident today as we're back in November, and we feel good about the way 2023 is starting. With that, I'll turn it over to Dave for any final comments.

我們仍然相信，該計劃的基礎是我們在很大程度上控制的因素，一個是生產力；二、商用率斜坡；三、服務增長；四是國防重點項目從研製到生產的過渡。總的來說，我們今天和 11 月回來時一樣充滿信心，我們對 2023 年的開始方式感到滿意。有了這個，我將把它交給 Dave 以徵求任何最終意見。

Yes. I think, Brian, the numbers speak for themselves. We couldn't be more pleased with the way the year closed with very few surprises. We're heading into the year. We know the supply chain is going to be tough and constrained, but we also believe that we control that environment. It's our job to get ahead of it. So thank you. We're happy to take some questions.

是的。我認為，布賴恩，數字不言自明。我們對這一年以極少的驚喜結束的方式感到非常滿意。我們即將進入這一年。我們知道供應鏈將變得艱難和受限，但我們也相信我們可以控制這種環境。領先於它是我們的工作。所以謝謝。我們很樂意回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will be from Peter Arment with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

So congrats on the progress in billings in the fourth quarter and the free cash flow generation, and you reiterated, obviously, the long-term free cash flow target of $10 billion mid-decade and the $3 billion to $5 billion in '23. So Brian, I guess, on '23, can you just maybe talk around confidence levels around that expected free cash flow target specifically at BCA and BDS, like kind of what are the key risks to call out, I assume it's supply chain around the guidance ranges.

所以祝賀第四季度的賬單進展和自由現金流的產生，你顯然重申了 10 年中期 100 億美元的長期自由現金流目標和 23 年的 30 億至 50 億美元。所以布賴恩，我想，在 23 年，你能不能談談圍繞 BCA 和 BDS 的預期自由現金流目標的信心水平，比如需要指出的主要風險是什麼，我假設它是圍繞供應鏈的指導範圍。

And then just, Dave, unrelated question, but can you comment broadly on the pickup in MAX flights in China as our checks show 220 revenue flights that are scheduled in February, and there's already 60 flights that have occurred this month. So clearly, there's MAX activity that's picking up in China.

然後，Dave，不相關的問題，但是你能否廣泛評論 MAX 航班在中國的起飛，因為我們的支票顯示 2 月份安排了 220 個收入航班，而本月已經有 60 個航班。很明顯，MAX 活動在中國正在興起。

Yes, Peter, why don't I start with China. Your numbers are within the range of my numbers, that is what's going on. I think as everybody knows, the opening up of China is going to be a major event in aviation. And the aviation industry was already stressed in terms of demand broadly in the world. So this is a serious bump for everybody, but most importantly, within China, they need the MAX to fly to satisfy those demands.

是的，彼得，為什麼我不從中國開始。你的數字在我的數字範圍內，就是這樣。我想眾所周知，中國的開放將是航空領域的一件大事。就全球需求而言，航空業已經受到壓力。所以這對每個人來說都是一個嚴重的打擊，但最重要的是，在中國，他們需要 MAX 來滿足這些需求。

So we were going to do there what we do here in the U.S. and focus on the airplanes they have on the tarmac today, which is close to 100 airplanes, the readiness of each and every 1 of them, and ultimately, they're getting into full revenue service. So for 6 months, I think that's the course for all of us to stay focused on.

所以我們打算在那裡做我們在美國這裡所做的事情，並專注於他們今天在停機坪上的飛機，這將近 100 架飛機，每一架飛機的準備情況，最終，他們正在進入全收入服務。所以在 6 個月的時間裡，我認為這是我們所有人都應該專注的課程。

And then we're going to take up the question of deliveries. And is there a moment in time where that begins to come back. I don't want to predict that date, Peter, but the odds go up every day. Our MAX gets back into service and the airplanes that we have on our tarmacs, hopefully, we get ready and deliver to our customers. So I think there's a reason to be optimistic. We will not change guidance and/or predict those outcomes until they actually occur.

然後我們將討論交付問題。是否有某個時刻開始回歸。我不想預測那個日期，彼得，但可能性每天都在上升。我們的 MAX 重新投入使用，我們在停機坪上的飛機，希望我們做好準備並交付給我們的客戶。所以我認為有理由保持樂觀。在實際發生之前，我們不會改變指南和/或預測這些結果。

And Peter, on the cash flow, the 3% to 5%, again, we feel very confident with that range. The key underpinnings will be the deliveries that we talked about, the 37 at the low end assumes that we don't get much better through the course of 2023 than we did this past year, which is low 30s for the whole year. At the high end, it actually says we do low 30s first half and then low 40s in second half.

彼得，關於現金流，3% 到 5%，我們對這個範圍非常有信心。關鍵的基礎將是我們談到的交付量，低端的 37 假設我們在 2023 年的過程中不會比去年好多少，這是全年的低 30s。在高端，它實際上說我們在上半場做低 30 秒，然後在下半場做低 40 秒。

So I think that all of that is within the mix. As you recall, we had a big December. One caution is that December was kind of over 50% on the MAXs, but October was not quite that high, and that's an indication that we're still not stable, it's still bumpy, but we still feel good about the overall trajectory in terms of being able to hit the $400 million to $450 million. And on the 87 similarly, I feel good about where we landed and then we were headed to hit the 70% to 80%, which underpins pretty much most of the cash flow for BCA, those 2 product lines. And then BDS, no change to what we thought things playing out pretty much as we expected.

所以我認為所有這些都在混合之中。您還記得，我們度過了一個重要的 12 月。一個警告是 12 月 MAX 的比例超過 50%，但 10 月並沒有那麼高，這表明我們仍然不穩定，仍然崎嶇不平，但我們仍然對總體軌跡感到滿意能夠達到 4 億至 4.5 億美元。同樣，在 87 年，我對我們的著陸點感到滿意，然後我們將達到 70% 至 80%，這幾乎支撐了 BCA 這兩條產品線的大部分現金流。然後是 BDS，我們認為事情沒有改變，就像我們預期的那樣。

And next, we'll go to Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將與 Bernstein 一起去拜訪 Doug Harned。

When you look at the MAX right now, the good news is you don't have a demand problem. And as you guide to 31 a month production in 2023, and our assumption is that if you had engine delivery is higher, you can move up from there, given that you're facilitized and staffed for 38. And if you look out at the 2025 or 2026 time frame, when you're guiding to 50 a month, you were once at 57 a month. So that would not be new territory.

當您現在查看 MAX 時，好消息是您沒有需求問題。當你指導 2023 年每月生產 31 輛時，我們的假設是，如果你的發動機交付量更高，你可以從那裡向上移動，因為你已經為 38 輛提供了便利和人員。如果你看看2025 年或 2026 年的時間框架，當你指導每月 50 次時，你曾經是每月 57 次。所以那不會是新的領域。

So what I'm trying to get at is when you look at these 2 years, clearly, there are supplier issues in '23, but is it feasible that you could see that production rate go higher? And if so, what would you want to see? And I look at '23 and '25 differently since '25, I'm assuming we'd be out from under a lot of these supplier issues.

所以我想說的是，當你看這兩年時，很明顯，23 年存在供應商問題，但你可以看到生產率提高是否可行？如果是這樣，您想看到什麼？自 25 年以來，我對 23 年和 25 年的看法有所不同，我假設我們會擺脫很多這些供應商問題。

Yes, Doug, again, I don't want to conjecture too much, but the 2 essential things to achieve that kind of objective. Number one, are we facilitized at that kind of rate? And the answer is, as we progress through this year, we'll be yes. Number two, and by far, the more challenging is are we going to be stable, month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter, predictable where the supply chain and the buffers that we put in place with respect to that supply chain are adequate.

是的，道格，再次重申，我不想猜測太多，但是實現這種目標的兩個基本要素。第一，我們是否以這種速度提供便利？答案是，隨著我們今年的進步，我們會是的。第二，到目前為止，更具挑戰性的是，我們是否要保持穩定、逐月、逐季度、可預測的供應鍊和我們為該供應鏈設置的緩衝區是足夠的。

That's a harder, tougher put. I think it's going to take us all year to ultimately demonstrate that stability can and will be achieved. And if I get to that, and I hope I do, we do, then I'll take on that conjecture. But I -- for right now, we are just squarely focused on that question of stability. As Brian said, our fourth quarter was good.

這是一個更難，更艱難的地方。我認為我們需要一整年的時間才能最終證明穩定能夠而且將會實現。如果我做到了這一點，我希望我做到了，我們做到了，那麼我就會接受這個猜想。但我——就目前而言，我們只是專注於穩定性問題。正如布賴恩所說，我們的第四季度表現不錯。

We finished well. We didn't have a lot of surprises in December. But if you look at the month-to-month in the quarter, you can't be happy with that. I mean just a few too many stoppages along the way. As you know, our philosophy is we're not going to travel anything anymore. We're not going to compound issues that occur. And we're going to maintain that philosophy. So watch the month-to-month, that's going to tell you a lot about our willingness to consider the rates you're talking about.

我們完成得很好。我們在 12 月沒有太多驚喜。但如果你看一下本季度的月環比，你就不會對此感到滿意。我的意思是一路上停工太多了。如您所知，我們的理念是我們不再去旅行。我們不會將發生的問題複雜化。我們將保持這一理念。因此，請逐月觀察，這將告訴您很多關於我們考慮您所談論的利率的意願。

And is that true? And when you look out to the '25, '26 time frame, obviously, there's a long way to go before we get there. How do you think about just flexibility given there may be a number of scenarios that could come out here in terms of production levels?

這是真的嗎？當你展望 25、26 年的時間框架時，顯然，在我們到達那里之前還有很長的路要走。鑑於在生產水平方面可能會出現多種情況，您如何看待靈活性？

Well, as I said, will we be facilitized to handle that kind of volume at that stage? Yes, we'll stay well ahead of that. And you'll see things that occur over this year that will demonstrate that. So I'm -- that's the part of it. I'm not so worried about. Again, it's stability questions. And then there will be a factor that we'll have to apply with respect to China. We're going to have to believe we're back and we're back for good.

好吧，正如我所說，我們會在那個階段被便利地處理這種數量嗎？是的，我們會保持領先地位。你會看到今年發生的事情將證明這一點。所以我 - 這就是它的一部分。我不那麼擔心。同樣，這是穩定性問題。然後將有一個因素我們必須適用於中國。我們將不得不相信我們回來了，我們永遠回來了。

Our next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

I wanted to ask about supply chain. Can you -- I heard you, Dave, that you're not going to mention any specific supplier and I hear that and respect that. But if you could provide any more detail on what's happening on the 787?

我想問一下供應鏈。你能不能——戴夫，我聽說你不會提到任何具體的供應商，我聽到並尊重這一點。但是，您是否可以提供更多有關 787 上發生的事情的詳細信息？

Is there a new quality control escape? Or is it just pure timing delays, visibility into that getting better? Any incremental detail there would be really helpful. And then what's the latest from the engine OEMs? I sounded a little better yesterday, but what are you guys hearing?

有沒有新的質控逃逸？還是僅僅是純粹的時間延遲，對這種情況的可見性越來越好？那裡的任何增量細節都會非常有幫助。那麼發動機原始設備製造商的最新消息是什麼？我昨天聽起來好多了，但是你們聽到了什麼？

Let me start with the latter of the engine discussion. Again, what I'm really happy with is the transparency with which we are planning for rates with our engine suppliers and you know who they are and predominantly one. And I'm feeling good about that. And we have plans to do it. I don't think any of us are yet at the high confidence moment on that, but we will. And that progression will occur over the course of the year when we are at high confidence, then we're going to get to the kind of rates that we -- that are built into our guidance.

讓我從引擎討論的後者開始。同樣，我真正感到高興的是我們計劃與發動機供應商的費率的透明度，你知道他們是誰，而且主要是一個。我對此感覺很好。我們有計劃這樣做。我認為我們中的任何人都還沒有對此充滿信心，但我們會的。當我們充滿信心時，這種進展將在一年中發生，然後我們將達到我們指導中的那種利率。

We've got a low end and a higher end and we'll find out where we're going to fit on that depending on it. But the transparency is amazing, no one's out guessing each other. And because this market has been so strong, no one is second guessing the rates. Everybody knows these rates, if we get to them, we'll achieve them and then we can continue to move forward. So there's a lot of good, but until we see it month to month and until we get to that high confidence moment, we're going to hold our production rate steady. And Brian, you're up to date on the 87 discussion.

我們有一個低端和一個高端，我們會根據它找出適合的位置。但是透明度驚人，沒有人會互相猜測。而且由於這個市場一直如此強勁，所以沒有人會事後猜測利率。每個人都知道這些比率，如果我們達到它們，我們就會實現它們，然後我們可以繼續前進。所以有很多好處，但直到我們逐月看到它，直到我們達到那個高度自信的時刻，我們才會保持我們的生產率穩定。布賴恩，你了解最新的 87 討論。

Yes. So on the 87, so the fourth quarter was our first real full quarter in a while of being able to deliver airplanes, both still at a low rate and also from inventory it feels pretty good. And as we go into 2023, remember, the scope of work is pretty clear what we have to do in terms of reworking the inventoried airplanes. But remember, our suppliers have a part of that responsibility in their scope.

是的。所以在 87 上，第四季度是我們能夠交付飛機的第一個真正完整的季度，無論是交付率還是低，而且從庫存來看，感覺還不錯。當我們進入 2023 年時，請記住，工作範圍非常明確，我們必須在返工庫存飛機方面做些什麼。但請記住，我們的供應商在其範圍內負有部分責任。

So bringing the suppliers, the big suppliers along to make sure that they are conforming and they've got all the protocols in place to get that done on their end is something that we're working our way through. It's going to take us a little bit longer than originally expected, which is why we are going to shift out, going to 5 per month a bit later in the year but we still see 70 to 80 in the cards, and so far so good.

因此，讓供應商，大型供應商一起確保他們符合要求，並且他們已經制定了所有協議來完成這一點，這是我們正在努力完成的事情。這將花費我們比最初預期更長的時間，這就是為什麼我們要轉移，在今年晚些時候每月 5 次，但我們仍然看到卡片中有 70 到 80 次，到目前為止一切順利.

What you'll likely see is some good liquidation of the inventory as we go through the year and then obviously ramp up the factory as we get deeper into the year. But net-net, the [70 to 80] we still feel good about.

你可能會看到，隨著我們度過這一年，庫存會得到一些很好的清算，然後隨著我們對這一年的深入，顯然會增加工廠。但是 net-net，[70 到 80] 我們仍然感覺良好。

Next question is from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Myles Walton 和 Wolfe Research。

Just wanted to clarify a couple of things. One, Brian, I think you mentioned $600 million higher abnormal cost on the 787. Is that cash? Is that absorbed now in unchanged free cash flow guidance? And then also for defense, if you can just touch on your margin profitability expectation and rough magnitude for 2023?

只是想澄清幾件事。第一，布賴恩，我想你提到 787 的異常成本增加了 6 億美元。那是現金嗎？現在是否吸收了不變的自由現金流指導？然後對於國防，您能否談談您對 2023 年的利潤率預期和粗略規模？

Sure. So in terms of the first question, we -- the 787 abnormal, there is no cash impact. Part of that is just because part of that is just fixed cost absorption, but there's no change in the cash outlook. It's not significant in that regard. So we're holding. On the defense margins. So in the quarter, as I mentioned, we had some bump around from the supply chain constraints and some of the labor, not just in the fourth quarter, as well as some of the timing of accruals that I mentioned.

當然。所以就第一個問題而言，我們——787 異常，沒有現金影響。部分原因只是因為其中一部分只是固定成本吸收，但現金前景沒有變化。這在這方面並不重要。所以我們持有。在防守邊緣。所以在本季度，正如我提到的，我們在供應鏈限制和一些勞動力方面遇到了一些問題，不僅僅是在第四季度，還有我提到的一些應計時間。

As we move our way into 2023, we clearly expect those margins to get better. It's not going to be all the way back to what normal might look like, but it's going to be improved sequentially. And we feel pretty good about the lineup in terms of the product portfolio. And as we remind you is that the products are performing incredibly well with the customers. So we feel good about the underlying base is the BDS margins will get better, and we're positioned for that as we head into the year.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們顯然預計這些利潤率會變得更好。它不會完全恢復到正常狀態，但會逐步改進。我們對產品組合方面的陣容感到非常滿意。正如我們提醒您的那樣，這些產品在客戶中表現得非常好。因此，我們對基礎基礎感到滿意，因為 BDS 利潤率會變得更好，並且我們在進入今年時為此做好了準備。

Next, we'll go to Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將與摩根士丹利一起去 Kristine Liwag。

Dave, you mentioned the milestone order from United despite the macroeconomic uncertainty in the near and medium term. So when you look at COVID-19 now approaching the rearview mirror, China reopening, I mean the demand for air travel has been pretty strong. Can you talk about what your customers are saying about potential new aircraft orders? Should we anticipate more airlines making landmark orders like United? And could we see BCA at a positive book-to-bill for the year?

戴夫，儘管近期和中期宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但你提到了聯合航空的里程碑訂單。因此，當您看到 COVID-19 現在接近後視鏡時，中國重新開放，我的意思是對航空旅行的需求非常強勁。您能談談您的客戶對潛在新飛機訂單的看法嗎？我們是否應該期待更多航空公司像美聯航一樣下達具有里程碑意義的訂單？我們能否看到 BCA 今年的訂單出貨比為正？

Yes. I -- again, I always hesitate to forecast specific orders. I will say that we're involved in more big orders now than we've been in a long time. I think last year was a big indicator for folks that big orders are out there. I think the United One is, in fact, indicative. But Delta earlier, there's just -- there are some big interest in aviation, I'd say, the majority now outside the U.S. as opposed to inside the U.S. And we're considering some big -- some really big things. And we're in the midst of all of those.

是的。我——再一次，我總是猶豫要不要預測具體的訂單。我會說我們現在參與的大訂單比我們很長一段時間都多。我認為去年對人們來說是一個重要指標，表明那裡有大訂單。我認為 United One 實際上是指示性的。但達美航空早些時候，只是——我想說，對航空業有一些很大的興趣，現在大多數人在美國以外，而不是在美國境內。我們正在考慮一些大的——一些非常大的事情。我們正處於所有這些之中。

So yes, I have a -- I'm pretty optimistic. I'm not going to forecast numbers because that's never healthy. But I do think over the next couple of quarters, you'll see some big decisions made to both manufacturers, and you'll see some new entrants into the aviation world that aim to make a real difference, and again, largely in the global markets.

所以是的，我有一個 - 我非常樂觀。我不打算預測數字，因為那從來都不健康。但我確實認為，在接下來的幾個季度裡，你會看到兩家製造商都做出了一些重大決定，你會看到一些新進入航空界的人旨在真正發揮作用，而且主要是在全球範圍內市場。

If I could do a follow-up, with that environment that you described, it sounds pretty robust. Can you describe the pricing environment for these orders and how they compared to pre-COVID levels?

如果我可以對您描述的環境進行跟進，這聽起來非常穩健。你能描述一下這些訂單的定價環境以及它們與 COVID 之前的水平相比如何嗎？

Yes. Well, when you're in the midst of any one deal, it feels ruthless. But if you really do balance it out, and I guess I credit both manufacturers, it's been pretty disciplined through this whole COVID moment. And so you see very few reaches and sort of crazy things that are out of the norm. And now we're in sort of that supply chain constrained world where people simply want to get positions so that they know they have airplanes when the time comes.

是的。好吧，當你在進行任何一筆交易時，都會感到無情。但如果你真的做到了平衡，我想我相信這兩家製造商，在整個 COVID 時刻，它都受到了很好的約束。所以你很少看到超出常規的範圍和瘋狂的事情。現在我們處於供應鏈受限的世界中，人們只是想獲得職位，以便他們知道在時機成熟時他們有飛機。

Recessions don't seem to get in the way because remember, we're competing for deliveries out 4 and 5 years from now. So they're not really computing recession into that. So anyway, again, I feel good, and I also -- I'm going to guess that -- because it's always a guess that pricing will stay disciplined.

經濟衰退似乎並沒有成為障礙，因為請記住，我們正在爭奪 4 年和 5 年後的交付。所以他們並沒有真正計算衰退。所以無論如何，我再次感覺良好，而且我也 - 我會猜測 - 因為它總是猜測定價將保持紀律。

And next, we'll go to Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將與摩根大通一起去 Seth Seifman。

Okay. And really, I guess, just a little bit of a quick clarification this morning rather than a question. Just making sure to understand the difference between production and deliveries this year on 737. When you say the high end of the guidance is assuming low 30s and moving to high 40s you're talking deliveries there.

好的。我想，真的，今天早上只是一點點快速澄清，而不是一個問題。只要確保了解今年 737 的生產和交付之間的差異。當你說指導的高端假設是 30 多歲的低點並移動到 40 多歲的高點時，你就是在談論那裡的交付。

And then with regard to production, when you say that you are kind of hoping to get to a place where you see some stability this year, that's with regard to production in the factory. And so that would make it very -- make it seem unlikely that the production rate is going higher than 31 this year. Is that a fair way to think about things regardless of where that deliveries shake out?

然後關於生產，當你說你有點希望今年能看到一些穩定的地方時，那就是關於工廠的生產。因此，這將使它非常 - 使今年的生產率看起來不太可能高於 31。無論交付地點如何，這都是一種思考問題的公平方式嗎？

You're right on characterizing the delivery framework. And I would say that as we move through the course of the year and we'll have fewer inventoried airplanes, that will put a little bit more opportunity on units come out of the factory. So production rate at the right moment could get higher. We'll wait and see. We're just going to stick to the range for now.

您對交付框架的描述是正確的。我要說的是，隨著我們在這一年的過程中前進，我們的庫存飛機將會減少，這將為出廠的單位帶來更多機會。因此，在適當的時候生產率可能會更高。我們拭目以待。我們現在只是堅持這個範圍。

And as a reminder that we're not shooting for the low end of the range.

提醒一下，我們不是在為範圍的低端拍攝。

Right, right. And as far as that stability that you're looking for, how much at this point would you say needs to come from improvement in the supply chain versus any improvement that's necessary in the internal productivity?

是的是的。就您正在尋找的穩定性而言，您認為此時需要多少來自供應鏈的改進與內部生產力所需的任何改進？

Yes. Look, I don't want to suggest that we don't have our own opportunities internally. We do, mostly driving cycle out and creating buffers in the right positions, et cetera, all things that you would attached to a company that really practices lean. So we will make improvements there.

是的。看，我不想暗示我們內部沒有自己的機會。我們這樣做，主要是推動循環並在正確的位置創建緩衝區，等等，所有你會依附於真正實踐精益的公司的事情。所以我們會在那裡進行改進。

But the lion's share of the rate discussions is going to be built around the supply chain and the capacity, literally the capacity and capability of that supply chain to meet the new rates. And as I said, very transparent discussions. It's almost entirely built around labor availability, trained labor ability as we move through the course of the year.

但大部分費率討論將圍繞供應鍊和產能展開，即供應鏈滿足新費率的產能和能力。正如我所說，非常透明的討論。它幾乎完全建立在我們一年中移動的勞動力可用性、訓練有素的勞動力能力之上。

Hiring is not a constraint anymore. People are able to hire the people they need. It's all about the training and ultimately getting them getting them ready to do the sophisticated work that we demand.

招聘不再是約束。人們能夠僱傭他們需要的人。這一切都與培訓有關，並最終讓他們為完成我們要求的複雜工作做好準備。

And next, we go to Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

接下來，我們和 Cowen 一起去 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. Could you update us on your efforts to certify the MAX 7 and 10 as well as the 777X? And as part of that, the agreement to allow you to push out the certification date of the 7 and the 10, I think you agreed to backfit some software changes on the existing MAX fleet. Could you tell us how much that's likely to cost? When did you take the accounting impact.

是的。您能否向我們介紹一下您為 MAX 7 和 10 以及 777X 認證所做的努力？作為其中的一部分，允許您推遲 7 和 10 的認證日期的協議，我認為您同意對現有 MAX 機隊進行一些軟件更改。你能告訴我們這可能要花多少錢嗎？你什麼時候考慮會計影響的。

I'll take the last part of that to get that off the table. The provision to retrofit the fleet was taken in the fourth quarter. That's behind us. It was small.

我將把它的最後一部分從桌面上拿下來。改裝機隊的準備金是在第四季度進行的。那是在我們身後。它很小。

And there's a reason why it's small. But I just -- I hope everybody knows and understands how important it was to get those extensions in place in the legislation. The argument was purely a safety argument. Fortunately, we got a lot of support on both sides of the aisle, and we got it done. So this gives us all the flexibility we need to get these airplanes certified under the existing applications and we feel good about that.

它很小是有原因的。但我只是——我希望每個人都知道並理解在立法中實施這些延期是多麼重要。爭論純粹是安全爭論。幸運的是，我們在兩邊都得到了很多支持，我們完成了。因此，這為我們提供了根據現有應用程序對這些飛機進行認證所需的所有靈活性，我們對此感到滿意。

We think first flights for the 7 will be this year and probably for the 10 next year. So we like where that stands. Everybody's calm, the FAA, nobody ever put pencils down. So we're just going to progress. And like always, we're not going to tell you exact dates as to when we expect those certifications.

我們認為 7 架的首飛將在今年進行，明年可能是 10 架的首飛。所以我們喜歡它的位置。每個人都很冷靜，美國聯邦航空局，沒有人放下鉛筆。所以我們只是要進步。和往常一樣，我們不會告訴您我們期望獲得這些認證的確切日期。

So all feels good. And then yes, the legislation that was approved included some improvements that we put into our cockpit on the DASH 10 that everybody agrees are useful and helpful to pilots. And those largely software adjustments will be incorporated into the entire MAX fleet over several years. As Brian said, it's not a large number, but we provided for it, and we're confident we can meet those objectives provided the cert and those improvements are accomplished here in the next year or 2.

所以一切都感覺良好。然後是的，批准的立法包括我們在 DASH 10 駕駛艙中進行的一些改進，每個人都認為這些改進對飛行員有用和有幫助。這些主要是軟件調整將在幾年內納入整個 MAX 機隊。正如 Brian 所說，這不是一個很大的數字，但我們提供了它，我們有信心我們可以實現這些目標，只要證書和這些改進在明年或兩年內在這裡完成。

And the 777X?

777X 呢？

No, I'm sorry. Everything is on course for the 777X. And I think the only issue that has created some concern over the last couple of years has been our agreement with EASA and some of the design principles that we think we're making terrific progress with EASA. And I think we will have a coordinated regulatory approach to the cert, and so we're staying on our targets.

不，我很抱歉。 777X 的一切都在按計劃進行。而且我認為在過去幾年中引起一些關注的唯一問題是我們與 EASA 的協議以及我們認為我們正在與 EASA 取得巨大進展的一些設計原則。而且我認為我們將對證書採取協調一致的監管方法，因此我們會堅持我們的目標。

And next, we'll go to David Strauss with Barclays.

接下來，我們將與巴克萊銀行一起去大衛施特勞斯。

Could you touch on the large pickup in 787 deferred the balance in the quarter, what that means going forward for the cash outlook on the 87? And also, Brian, if you could just touch on the big pickup that we saw in the BCA unit loss, is that just related to the higher 787 deliveries in the quarter?

您能否談談 787 的大量回升推遲了本季度的餘額，這對 87 的現金前景意味著什麼？而且，布萊恩，如果你能談談我們在 BCA 單位損失中看到的大幅回升，這是否與本季度更高的 787 交付量有關？

Yes. On the deferred production balance, that's basically the 787 cost base extension that I mentioned has an impact on program margins, and that's amplified by all the finished goods inventory that's sitting there on the under airplanes. So that's driving the increase. And your last question, basically, it's impacted by customer mix and the impact of customer concessions and considerations.

是的。在遞延生產平衡方面，基本上是我提到的 787 成本基礎擴展對項目利潤率有影響，並且被飛機下方的所有成品庫存放大。所以這推動了增長。你的最後一個問題，基本上，它受到客戶組合以及客戶讓步和考慮因素的影響。

Okay. And a quick follow-up on the -- I think you said 138 China airplanes in inventory. Are you still looking to remarket those?

好的。快速跟進——我想你說的是庫存中有 138 架中國飛機。你還在尋找再營銷那些嗎？

Yes, but only partially. And as of now, when you see the sort of the results of that effort, you can assume that will be on pause with respect to that until we get -- until we understand completely where China wants to go. So the answer is yes, and you'll see progress but you'll also see a pause so that we can discern what China wants to do. And hopefully, that's good news.

是的，但只是部分。截至目前，當你看到這種努力的結果時，你可以假設在我們得到 - 直到我們完全了解中國想要去的地方之前，它會暫停。所以答案是肯定的，你會看到進展，但你也會看到停頓，這樣我們就可以辨別中國想要做什麼。希望這是個好消息。

Our next question is from Jason Gursky with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Brian, just a quick clarification question and then one over on the services business. And a clarification, you mentioned that margins at BDS tick up in '23, but don't get back to the long-term margin rates that you expect are on a normalized basis. Just curious what the milestones are going to be for us to be watching out for on getting back to those normalized rates? And then on the services business. Maybe just a little bit more color on expectations for '23 with regard to your expectations on growth rate and margins?

布賴恩，只是一個快速澄清的問題，然後是關於服務業務的問題。澄清一下，你提到 BDS 的利潤率在 23 年有所上升，但不會回到你預期的正常化基礎上的長期保證金率。只是好奇我們要注意恢復正常化率的里程碑是什麼？然後是服務業務。關於您對增長率和利潤率的預期，也許對 23 年的預期有更多的色彩？

Yes, sure. On the BDS. So as you mentioned, long term, high single digits is what we've talked about. But in the near term, the same kind of supply chain constraints and labor availability that we've talked about in the BCA world, impact the BDS role as well. So when the current environment is less constrained and stabilizes, that will be a benefit.

是的，當然。在北斗系統上。所以正如你提到的，長期來看，高個位數就是我們所說的。但在短期內，我們在 BCA 領域討論過的同樣類型的供應鏈限制和勞動力可用性也會影響 BDS 的角色。因此，噹噹前環境受到的約束較少並趨於穩定時，這將是一個好處。

We expect it to happen partly in 2023, but the key thing to watch is just the stability of the supply chain is going to be a big, big deal that we're keeping our eye on. And that's going to be important as margins will tend to accelerate. The time and the pace remains to be seen, but it will get better in 2023.

我們預計它會在 2023 年部分發生，但需要關注的關鍵是供應鏈的穩定性將是我們一直關注的一件大事。這將很重要，因為利潤率往往會加速增長。時間和步伐還有待觀察，但在 2023 年會有所好轉。

On the services side, so we had a big year for the services business. It's going to have to -- and part of that was based on the commercial recovery, and we enjoyed the benefit of that in 2022. But BGS, in terms of their revenue, they finished the quarter at a pretty good spot, pretty clean basis.

在服務方面，我們在服務業務方面度過了豐收的一年。這將是必須的——其中一部分是基於商業復甦，我們在 2022 年享受了它的好處。但是 BGS，就他們的收入而言，他們在本季度結束時處於一個相當不錯的位置，非常乾淨的基礎.

And if you just kind of think about that as how you would extrapolate into 2023 by quarter gives you a pretty good view of where we see that growth coming for. So it will grow, margin will be just fine right within that mid-teen levels that we've enjoyed. So we feel pretty good about the prospects of the service business, very stable, continue to grow, no surprises.

如果你只是想一下，你將如何按季度推斷到 2023 年，你就會很好地了解我們看到增長的方向。所以它會增長，利潤率會在我們享受的中期水平內很好。所以我們對服務業務的前景感覺很好，非常穩定，繼續增長，沒有驚喜。

Next, we'll go to Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將與美國銀行一起去羅恩·愛潑斯坦。

Just circling back on thinking about product development and so on and so forth. Like you mentioned at the Investor Day that Boeing wouldn't be going forward with a middle of the market product probably until sometime in the 2030s. How should we think about that in light of the recent win with NASA on the -- that you truss-braced -- the truss-braced transonic wing program and what that means? Could that be some early technology on a new platform? Or what are you looking for to happen in the technology world to feel confident about doing something new?

只是回過頭來考慮產品開發等等。就像你在投資者日提到的那樣，波音可能要到 2030 年代的某個時候才會推出中端市場產品。鑑於最近與美國國家航空航天局 (NASA) 就桁架支撐跨音速機翼計劃取得的勝利，我們應該如何看待這一點，這意味著什麼？這可能是新平台上的一些早期技術嗎？或者您希望在技術世界中發生什麼事情，以便對做新事物充滿信心？

Yes. So Ron, I'm going to highlight 3 things that I think are going to contribute to a truly differentiated new product. One of them is the truss wing, so I'll refer to that now. As you know, that is technology that's been worked on for the better part of a decade alongside of NASA. And the program that we've embarked on here is how do you commercialize it? How do we put it through the right set of tests, et cetera, so that, in fact, can be incorporated into new airplanes.

是的。所以羅恩，我要強調 3 件事，我認為這三件事會對真正差異化的新產品做出貢獻。其中之一是桁架翼，所以我現在要提到它。如您所知，這是與 NASA 一起研究了十年的大部分時間的技術。我們在這裡開展的項目是如何將其商業化？我們如何對其進行正確的測試等等，以便實際上可以將其整合到新飛機中。

So there's real intent there to be able to do it. I'm not sure it is going to be as good and/or applicable for middle of the market and/or a wide-body, but it will definitely have a role to play someday in the narrow-body world. So that's number one. Number two, you've heard us talk about the digital thread being able to create the digital model, not just for the airplane, but for the factory and for the servicing.

所以有真正的意圖能夠做到這一點。我不確定它是否適用於中端市場和/或寬體飛機，但它肯定會在某一天在窄體世界中發揮作用。所以這是第一。第二，你聽說過我們談論能夠創建數字模型的數字線程，不僅適用於飛機，還適用於工廠和服務。

But we are really cutting our teeth on a couple of defense programs that, frankly, we're learning a lot every day, all day, so that whatever we do on that next commercial airplane will incorporate the digital thread. And it will be way more mature than what it's been so far in our discrete defense programs.

但我們確實在幾個防禦計劃上努力，坦率地說，我們每天都在學習很多東西，所以無論我們在下一架商用飛機上做什麼，都會融入數字主線。它將比我們目前的獨立防禦計劃更加成熟。

So anyway, I feel very good about that. And then the last major element has been the one that usually carried the day, but in this case, I think will simply contribute to a better day and that's propulsion technologies, bigger bypass ratios, and you probably know a truss-wing setup will create that opportunity to a far greater extent than today's wing simply because of the distance from the ground.

所以無論如何，我對此感覺很好。然後最後一個主要元素是通常帶來一天的元素，但在這種情況下，我認為只會為更好的一天做出貢獻，那就是推進技術、更大的涵道比，你可能知道桁架翼設置會創造僅僅因為離地面的距離，這個機會比今天的機翼要大得多。

So there are lots of reasons why I think these technologies can and will be proven and ultimately adapted. And when you're considering a 50-year kind of program for any new airplane, you have to think about this. And in our view, the objective has to be somewhere between 25% and 30% better than it is today. And that's what we're focused on. And I think we have the time to do it and the technologies to play out.

因此，我認為這些技術可以而且將會被證明並最終得到應用的原因有很多。當你在考慮任何新飛機的 50 年計劃時，你必須考慮這一點。在我們看來，目標必須比現在好 25% 到 30%。這就是我們關注的重點。而且我認為我們有時間去做，也有技術可以發揮作用。

Got it. And if I can, just a quick detailed follow-on. What are you thinking about headcount productions as we go -- or headcount projections as we go into '23? I mean how has it been in the labor market kind of across the supply chain, which you hear is everybody needs more people. And how has it been for Boeing? And what are you doing to try to cross that bridge?

知道了。如果可以的話，只是一個快速詳細的後續行動。您如何看待我們進行的員工人數製作 - 或者我們進入 23 年時的員工人數預測？我的意思是整個供應鏈的勞動力市場情況如何，你聽說每個人都需要更多的人。波音公司的情況如何？你在做什麼來嘗試過那座橋？

Yes. Ron, I want to be clear. We have had no trouble hiring people, none. We're sort of at/or a little above where we were in the days you guys all remember because we've got so many of these rework apparatuses going on, and there are a lot of people required to do it. So our job is to actually just take what we have, incorporate all the learning from the folks who are doing the rework that will displace whatever retirements and/or demographic issues that we have over the next couple of years.

是的。羅恩，我想說清楚。我們在招聘人員方面沒有遇到任何問題，沒有。我們有點處於/或略高於你們都記得的那些日子，因為我們有很多這樣的返工設備正在進行，並且需要很多人來做。因此，我們的工作實際上是利用我們所擁有的，整合從正在進行返工的人們那裡學到的所有知識，這些返工將取代我們在未來幾年內遇到的任何退休和/或人口問題。

We have a pretty good setup on labor and a pretty good mechanism ironically with these return to service aircraft and the joint verification, a pretty good mechanism to train mechanics, train our people to do the job. And on the engineering front, man, we've had a real good run hiring is over 10,000. Our job is to make sure that we just train them right, get them involved early and get on the life.

我們有一個很好的勞動力設置和一個很好的機制，具有諷刺意味的是，這些返回服務的飛機和聯合驗證，一個很好的機制來培訓機械師，培訓我們的人員來完成這項工作。在工程方面，伙計，我們的招聘人數超過 10,000 人，表現非常出色。我們的工作是確保我們對他們進行正確的培訓，讓他們儘早參與並開始生活。

So we are not facing a big demand. Our supply chain probably still is working the hiring a bit, but it's nowhere near as important as their -- the training of the people that they're bringing in. I've seen this thing really ease up in the last year, like really ease up. Tier 1s, I doubt any of them are really fighting for talent anymore. And underneath that, I think the supply chains are filling out. It's all about now that training and development.

所以我們沒有面臨很大的需求。我們的供應鏈可能仍在進行一些招聘工作，但遠不及他們對他們引進的人員進行培訓重要。我看到這件事在去年真的有所緩和，就像真的緩和。第 1 層，我懷疑他們中的任何一個人真的在為人才而戰。在此之下，我認為供應鏈正在填補。現在一切都與培訓和發展有關。

And next, we'll go to Rich Safran with Seaport Research Partners.

接下來，我們將與 Seaport Research Partners 一起前往 Rich Safran。

So you're not going to be surprised. I'd like to ask you about defense. I wanted to know, first, could you broadly discuss your defense portfolio, the opportunity set and what we should be focusing on? Just by example, I noticed that AIAA you were discussing a C-17 C-130 recap. Second to that, could you also discuss the F-15EX program in terms of expectations for deliveries, production rates? And also if margins on the program might be comparable to what we saw when you were selling older models under FMS.

所以你不會感到驚訝。我想問你關於防禦的問題。我想知道，首先，您能否廣泛討論一下您的國防組合、機會集以及我們應該關注的重點？舉個例子，我注意到 AIAA 你在討論 C-17 C-130 的回顧。其次，您能否也討論一下 F-15EX 計劃的交付預期、生產率？此外，如果該計劃的利潤率可能與我們在 FMS 下銷售舊型號時看到的利潤率相當。

Yes. So let me take this one. Let me address it at the portfolio level. In light of the difficulties we've had with the fixed-price development contracts, which I consider more of a contracting exposure as opposed to a portfolio exposure, I feel really good about the portfolio broadly, and there are reasons why I feel that way.

是的。所以讓我拿這個。讓我在投資組合層面解決這個問題。鑑於我們在固定價格開發合同方面遇到的困難，我認為更多的是承包風險而不是投資組合風險，我對整個投資組合感覺非常好，我有這種感覺是有原因的.

We're fully invested, as you know, autonomy. I believe autonomy and teaming are going to be one of the real drivers with respect to airplane development, Air Force, Navy requirements going forward. And we're already invested and we're making real progress with both of those members of the fighting forces. And I'm sure you know the programs that we talk about.

如您所知，我們已完全投入自主權。我相信自主性和團隊合作將成為未來飛機開發、空軍和海軍需求的真正驅動力之一。我們已經進行了投資，並且我們正在與戰鬥部隊的這兩個成員取得真正的進展。我相信你知道我們談論的程序。

And there are others we can't talk about, which we're as excited, if not more excited about. So the long portfolio and the development that we've sustained over all these years, I feel really good about. We have the T-7 trainer. It's way more important than just the market for trainers itself.

還有其他我們不能談論的事情，我們對此同樣興奮，甚至更興奮。因此，這些年來我們持續的長期投資組合和發展，我感覺非常好。我們有 T-7 教練機。這比培訓師本身的市場重要得多。

Ultimately, we think it's -- it can be used as a derivative to do other things for the Air Force, and I'm sure you know what that's about. But maybe even more importantly, it's an absolute poster child for our digital thread. And it's teaching our customers how to think about the use of the digital thread, and it's teaching us how to perfect all the production technologies that we need to take full advantage of the digital trend.

最終，我們認為它是——它可以作為衍生產品為空軍做其他事情，我相信你知道那是什麼。但也許更重要的是，它絕對是我們數字線程的典型代表。它教會我們的客戶如何思考數字主線的使用，教會我們如何完善我們需要的所有生產技術，以充分利用數字趨勢。

So if I look at our -- just our sort of our wing fleets, I feel very good about where we are. And as you point out, the F-15 -- the new derivatives boy, they are really important to our customers. We feel great about the future. It feels like a new platform, frankly, from my perspective, I'm not going to hand out the production rates at this stage, but we're feeling pretty good about the international demand as well as our U.S. demand.

因此，如果我看看我們的 - 只是我們的機翼艦隊，我對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。正如你所指出的，F-15——新的衍生品男孩，它們對我們的客戶非常重要。我們對未來感覺很好。這感覺就像一個新平台，坦率地說，從我的角度來看，我不打算在現階段公佈生產率，但我們對國際需求和美國需求感覺非常好。

And you know -- in light of the only other choices, this gets, frankly, more valuable over time until the really new classified work ultimately was completed and brought to the market. Anyway, I feel quite good about the portfolio. It's development where we stand in it.

而且你知道 - 鑑於僅有的其他選擇，坦率地說，隨著時間的推移，這會變得更有價值，直到真正新的機密工作最終完成並推向市場。無論如何，我對投資組合感覺很好。這是我們所處的發展。

And I'm sorry, some of the contracting methods that we used in the early going here, but anyway, we are where we are. And I can't get off the page without talking about the tanker, which we all still believe very, very strongly and, again, difficult contracting moment for us. On the other hand, futility to the Air Force has been fantastic.

很抱歉，我們早期使用的一些合同方法在這裡，但無論如何，我們就在原地。如果不談論油輪，我就無法離開這一頁，我們仍然非常、非常強烈地相信這對我們來說是艱難的簽約時刻。另一方面，空軍的徒勞無益。

The Vision system our commitment to it and then technologies beyond that allow for even autonomous refueling. These are things we're fully invested in, and we believe in the growth of the industry and the need with our customer. So anyway, there are other things, and you probably know a lot of that, but there's a reason to feel good, frankly, on the development front with respect to Boeing's defense business.

Vision 系統是我們對它的承諾，然後是超越該承諾的技術，甚至可以實現自動加油。這些是我們全力投資的事情，我們相信行業的發展和客戶的需求。所以無論如何，還有其他事情，你可能知道很多，但坦率地說，在波音國防業務的發展方面，我們有理由感覺良好。

John, we have time for one more question.

約翰，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Certainly, and that will be from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

當然，這將來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I know it's been asked a thousand different ways, but I don't know if I know the answer yet. So maybe, Dave, can you give us an idea of how -- where you are on the MAX and 787 from a cash per aircraft perspective? Or how far that is below prior peak? And is there a cadence of that profitability, free cash flow as we think about production rates increasing, supply chain impacts and just pricing as you get aircraft out of inventory.

我知道有人用一千種不同的方式問過這個問題，但我不知道我是否知道答案。所以也許，戴夫，你能告訴我們如何 - 從每架飛機的現金角度來看你在 MAX 和 787 上的位置嗎？或者比之前的峰值低多少？當我們考慮生產率增加、供應鏈影響以及當您從庫存中取出飛機時，是否存在這種盈利能力、自由現金流的節奏。

Let me take a shot at the -- I'll talk cash margins, and let's start with the 787. So near term, they're pressured but positive, and we got to work through all the things that we've been describing. In long term, they're going to be higher than they were back in 2018, driven by productivity, pricing in the Dash 10 model. So the 87 feels like it's on the verge of doing some real special stuff over the long term. On the 37, near-term pressure because all the supply chain things we talked about, some customer mix things that we're going to battle through and possibly some impact to remarketing.

讓我試一試——我會談談現金利潤率，讓我們從 787 開始。短期內，他們面臨壓力但積極，我們必須解決我們一直在描述的所有問題。從長遠來看，在生產力和 Dash 10 模型定價的推動下，它們將高於 2018 年的水平。因此，從長遠來看，87 感覺它即將做一些真正特別的事情。在 37 日，近期的壓力是因為我們談到了所有供應鏈的事情，一些客戶混合了我們要克服的事情，可能會對再營銷產生一些影響。

And then long term, it's going to be more or less in line with what it was before and the benefit being the productivity and the rate ramp. So that's kind of how we think about those 2 programs over time from a cash perspective.

然後從長遠來看，它或多或少會與以前的情況保持一致，好處是生產力和利率上升。所以這就是我們從現金角度考慮這兩個項目的方式。

Really -- Sheila, you really have to get through calendar year '24. And then a lot of the cloud, a lot of the things that we've been wrestling with, the things that impact the -- our margins and the lumpiness along the way, that all begins to clear as we get to the tail end of '24. And as we think about '25 and on, I think that clarity will be apparent to everybody.

真的——希拉，你真的必須熬過 24 年。然後是很多雲，很多我們一直在努力解決的事情，影響我們的利潤和一路上的腫塊的事情，當我們到達尾聲時，所有這些都開始清除'24。當我們考慮 25 年及以後的時候，我認為每個人都會明白這一點。

And that concludes our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Thank you for joining.

我們的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。