波音 (BA) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。大家好，歡迎參加波音公司 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。管理層討論和幻燈片演示以及分析師問答環節正在互聯網上進行現場直播。 （操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

目前，關於開場白和介紹，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁 Matt Welch 先生。韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Boeing's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me is Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，約翰，大家早上好。歡迎參加波音 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。我是馬特·韋爾奇，與我同行的還有波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩；波音公司執行副總裁兼首席財務官布萊恩·韋斯特（Brian West）。

And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation through our website at boeing.com. As always, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today. Projections, estimates and goals we include in our discussions this morning involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of this web presentation.

提醒一下，您可以通過我們的網站 boeing.com 關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。與往常一樣，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務信息。我們今天上午討論的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和本網絡演示文稿末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。

In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation.

此外，我們建議您參考我們的收益發布和演示文稿。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

And this is John with AT&T, please continue.

我是 AT&T 的 John，請繼續。

Start over? Okay. Sorry, we were muted. It's good to be with all of you. Thanks, Matt, for the intro. I want to start my brief comments upfront with just a revisit at the Farnborough Air Show a little over a week ago. It was important for us. It was an emotional outcoming for our company and our people.

重來？好的。抱歉，我們被靜音了。和大家在一起真好。謝謝，馬特，介紹。我想先回顧一下一周多前的範堡羅航展，開始我的簡短評論。這對我們很重要。對於我們的公司和我們的員工來說，這是一個情緒化的結果。

We always look a little better when we are standing next to our products and the flight teams who are operating them. It was great to see, and I think everyone witnessed the 777X in flight, which was more than magnificent, the Dash 10 also in flight and our investment in Wisk and its product in the important eVTOL market.

當我們站在我們的產品和操作它們的飛行團隊旁邊時，我們總是看起來好一點。很高興看到，我想每個人都目睹了 777X 的飛行，這不僅僅是壯觀，Dash 10 也在飛行，以及我們在重要的 eVTOL 市場對 Wisk 及其產品的投資。

We met with our customers, we met with suppliers, partners, the usual, except it didn't feel like the usual because it had been a while. We're proud of the orders that we collected over the course of that week, over 200 orders and commitments. And importantly, it covered the whole line, the 737 MAX, our 87 and the 777X. And it shows the extent to which our airlines are already -- our airline customers are already anticipating fleet renewal projects and their willingness to bet forward on that prospect. Needless to say, they're all as busy as they can be trying to get their own fleets up and running and the supply constraints they face dealt with.

我們會見了我們的客戶，我們會見了供應商、合作夥伴，和往常一樣，只是感覺不像往常，因為已經有一段時間了。我們為在那一周收集的訂單、超過 200 份訂單和承諾感到自豪。重要的是，它涵蓋了整個產品線，包括 737 MAX、我們的 87 和 777X。它顯示了我們的航空公司已經在多大程度上——我們的航空公司客戶已經在期待機隊更新項目以及他們對這一前景下注的意願。不用說，他們都在忙著讓自己的車隊運轉起來，並解決他們面臨的供應限制問題。

Looking at the quarter, a lot of things good happened over the quarter. We are on the verge of returning to the 87 delivery process. I won't give a date. I never have. That's up to the FAA. But we've been working closely with our customers and the regulator on those final steps.

回顧本季度，本季度發生了很多好事。我們正處於恢復 87 交付流程的邊緣。我不會給出日期。我從來沒有。這取決於美國聯邦航空局。但我們一直在與我們的客戶和監管機構密切合作，以完成最後的步驟。

We're proud of our team. We're proud for the discipline and the detailed work they applied over this long course. And it will be worth it. In the end, we'll have a predictable and high-quality line, and our customers will be pleased with the products. And a reminder to everyone that this 87 fleet that's out there has been working harder than it's ever worked. And it's been performing incredibly well.

我們為我們的團隊感到自豪。我們為他們在這個漫長的課程中應用的紀律和詳細工作感到自豪。這將是值得的。最終，我們將擁有可預測的高質量生產線，我們的客戶將對產品感到滿意。並提醒大家，這支 87 機隊的工作比以往任何時候都更加努力。它的表現令人難以置信。

Turning to the MAX. Again, one airplane at a time, the fleet is performing incredibly well, oftentimes exceeding the specification and expectations our customers had when they originally placed their orders.

轉向MAX。同樣，一次一架飛機，機隊的表現令人難以置信，經常超出客戶最初下訂單時的規格和期望。

And we continue to work hard on predictability of the delivery chain. And we're focused mostly on the engine supply lines and then those second-tier constraints that those engine suppliers are facing. And I think we've made an awful lot of progress on that front. Brian will give you sort of our best guess on how this year turns out with respect to those deliveries. But it is -- it's now, I think, based on a far better knowledge of what those supply constraints are and commitments from our supply side engine suppliers.

我們將繼續努力提高交付鏈的可預測性。我們主要關注發動機供應線，然後是這些發動機供應商面臨的第二層限制。我認為我們在這方面取得了很大進展。布賴恩將為您提供關於今年這些交付情況的最佳猜測。但它是 - 我認為，現在是基於對供應限制和我們供應方發動機供應商的承諾的更好了解。

In BDS, I don't want to skip over the Starliner. It was important. It was an emotional up for all of us at Boeing to get back on track. We had a wet dress for the space launch system rocket, the biggest rocket yet. We're looking forward to that launch. So we had a good sort of engineering coming out with respect to those achievements. And yes, we're still working through some of the challenging macro environment issues, especially with respect to our fixed price development contracts. And Brian will also walk you through that.

在 BDS 中，我不想跳過 Starliner。這很重要。回到正軌，讓我們波音公司的所有人情緒激動。我們為太空發射系統火箭準備了一件濕衣服，這是迄今為止最大的火箭。我們期待著這次發布。因此，就這些成就而言，我們有一種很好的工程設計。是的，我們仍在努力解決一些具有挑戰性的宏觀環境問題，特別是在我們的固定價格開發合同方面。布賴恩也會引導你完成。

And then finally, on the services side, like pretty much everyone that's been reporting, it is coming back, and it's coming back in a rapid way. Our commercial service business was up 30%. It carries strong margins with it. And so it's a big and important contributor to our overall cash flow story.

最後，在服務方面，就像幾乎所有一直在報告的人一樣，它正在回歸，而且以快速的方式回歸。我們的商業服務業務增長了 30%。它帶來了豐厚的利潤。因此，它是我們整個現金流故事的重要貢獻者。

And again, the result of all of this work, a big step forward with respect to stability. We did debt to cash flow -- operating cash flow positive. So that puts us a little bit ahead of our internal plan, and we feel good about that. And we are still committed to be cash flow positive for the calendar year 2022.

再一次，所有這些工作的結果，在穩定性方面向前邁出了一大步。我們對現金流進行了債務 - 經營現金流為正。所以這讓我們比我們的內部計劃提前了一點，我們對此感覺很好。我們仍然致力於在 2022 日曆年實現正現金流。

It's underpinned by a very strong commercial market. I think you all know that. Everyone has spoken to it. A lot of supply constraints out there with respect to the operators of our airplanes, the airlines and what they've got to do to get the fleets running efficiently and build their capacity where it needs to be.

它以非常強大的商業市場為基礎。我想你們都知道。每個人都談到了它。對於我們的飛機運營商、航空公司以及他們必須做些什麼來讓機隊高效運行並在需要的地方建立能力，存在很多供應限制。

But they are out there in the market trying to rebuild their fleets for the future and to meet that significant demand. And so far, we have not seen any drawback on that demand. While we understand the sort of recession fears that are growing out there, so far, it has not impacted the aviation industry or our customers.

但是他們在市場上試圖為未來重建他們的機隊並滿足這一巨大的需求。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到這種需求有任何缺點。雖然我們了解那裡正在增長的那種衰退擔憂，但到目前為止，它還沒有影響到航空業或我們的客戶。

So mostly what we're focused on, and I don't think it will surprise anyone, and I think I've heard it in most of my peers' reports is the supply chain, stabilizing it, making sure that it's predictable and consistent. And for us, in particular, with respect to the commercial side of our business, it relates to engine production, engine availability so that we can predictably deliver airplanes to our customers.

所以我們主要關注的是，我認為這不會讓任何人感到驚訝，而且我認為我在大多數同行的報告中都聽到過供應鏈，穩定它，確保它是可預測的和一致的.對我們來說，特別是在我們業務的商業方面，它與發動機生產、發動機可用性有關，以便我們可以預測地向我們的客戶交付飛機。

We think we've made an awful lot of progress on that front. I know you've heard directly from the engine suppliers. They are making progress, and we've adjusted all of our delivery rate expectations at least in the near term to satisfy those constraints.

我們認為我們在這方面取得了很大進展。我知道你直接從發動機供應商那裡聽說過。他們正在取得進展，我們至少在短期內調整了我們所有的交付率預期，以滿足這些限制。

A comment quickly on regulatory and geopolitical. I'll start with geopolitical, China. The good news is that because of the strong demand in the marketplace, we've been able to manage our risk going forward with respect to the airplanes that we have built and are awaiting delivery.

快速評論監管和地緣政治。我將從地緣政治開始，中國。好消息是，由於市場需求強勁，我們已經能夠管理我們已經製造並正在等待交付的飛機的未來風險。

We intend to stand by our Chinese airlines, stand by the CAAC and get those airplanes back. But the timing, which has been pushed and deferred in light of some of the COVID management issues in China and some of that geopolitical overhang, we can suffer our way through that and will. And it should not impact the cash flow positive posture that we've taken for the year.

我們打算支持我們的中國航空公司，支持民航總局，讓那些飛機回來。但是，鑑於中國的一些新冠病毒管理問題和一些地緣政治懸念，時間已經被推遲和推遲，我們可以忍受我們的方式，並且願意。它不應該影響我們今年採取的現金流積極態勢。

So it's a little easier to manage for us. It's no less important, and we will continue to encourage our administration to work as closely as they can with the Chinese to reopen the trade card or with respect to aviation, a relationship we've enjoyed for over 50 years. And we'll continue to support our customers. Medium and long term, it does represent the difference between commercial aerospace leadership or not, given the size and scale of the China market.

所以對我們來說管理起來更容易一些。這同樣重要，我們將繼續鼓勵我們的政府盡可能與中國人密切合作，以重新開放貿易卡或航空領域，這是我們 50 多年來一直享有的關係。我們將繼續支持我們的客戶。中長期來看，考慮到中國市場的規模和規模，它確實代表了商業航空航天領先與否的區別。

And then on the regulatory front, we are working constructively with the FAA. We have our heads down. We're working towards certification by year-end on the Dash 7 and the Dash 10. And we believe what we're working on is, in fact, the safe option with respect to all options in the narrow-body space. And so we're going to just keep plugging away.

然後在監管方面，我們正在與 FAA 進行建設性合作。我們低著頭。我們正在努力爭取在年底前對 Dash 7 和 Dash 10 進行認證。而且我們相信，事實上，我們正在做的工作是針對窄體空間中所有選項的安全選項。所以我們將繼續插電。

And anyway, that's enough said. As we navigate through this environment, stability is the watch word for all of us. We want to be predictable. We think that will differentiate us. And that's why we've got -- we're focused on it.

無論如何，這已經足夠了。當我們在這種環境中導航時，穩定性是我們所有人的口號。我們希望是可預測的。我們認為這將使我們與眾不同。這就是為什麼我們有 - 我們專注於它。

We continue to increase our investment in research programs, the readiness program with respect to the next big commercial airplane, all the digital modeling tools that are required to be ready for that, we continue to invest aggressively in. And we continue to enhance those underlying digital technologies that we will bring ultimately to the services market as well. Safety, quality, transparency, these are values, and this is what we remain focused on.

我們繼續增加對研究計劃、下一架大型商用飛機的準備計劃以及為此做好準備所需的所有數字建模工具的投資，我們繼續積極投資。我們繼續加強那些基礎我們最終也將把這些數字技術帶到服務市場。安全、質量、透明度，這些都是價值觀，這也是我們一直關注的重點。

So before I turn it over to Brian, the MAX, it's on track. And it's performing for customers, in many cases, exceeding expectations. We think we're through the most difficult parts of COVID-19. Starliner, a pivotal and emotional test for The Boeing Company, and we feel good about it, and we're ready for the crewed flight.

所以在我把它交給 MAX 的布萊恩之前，它已經走上了正軌。在許多情況下，它對客戶的表現超出了預期。我們認為我們已經度過了 COVID-19 最困難的部分。 Starliner，對波音公司來說是一個關鍵的情感測試，我們對此感覺良好，我們已準備好進行載人飛行。

Global Services, on its way back in a big way. We feel terrific about their progress. And now we are at the detailed moment to get ready for 787 deliveries, the moment we've been waiting for. And we look and feel as though we're on the verge of doing so. So we've taken a long view. We continue to take a long view. And we do believe we're in the middle of a turnaround, and it's beginning to show itself.

全球服務，正在大舉回歸。我們對他們的進步感到非常高興。現在，我們正處於準備 787 交付的詳細時刻，這是我們一直在等待的時刻。我們看起來和感覺好像我們正處於這樣做的邊緣。所以我們放眼長遠。我們繼續著眼長遠。而且我們確實相信我們正處於轉機之中，並且它開始顯現出來。

So with that, I'll end my opening comments and turn it over to Brian.

因此，我將結束我的開場白並將其交給布賴恩。

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. This was an important quarter. We made good progress on key programs and a pretty dynamic macro environment affected by inflation, labor availability and supply chain constraints, all of which impacted both us and the industry.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早上好。這是一個重要的季度。我們在關鍵計劃和受通貨膨脹、勞動力供應和供應鏈限制影響的充滿活力的宏觀環境方面取得了良好進展，所有這些都影響了我們和行業。

Despite these challenges, we improved our quarter-over-quarter cash performance and importantly, generated positive operating cash flow. Cash was driven by higher commercial delivery volume as well as order activity and advanced payment timing. This keeps us on track to generate positive free cash flow for the year and higher cash flows in 2023.

儘管存在這些挑戰，但我們改善了季度現金業績，重要的是，產生了正的經營現金流。現金是由更高的商業交付量以及訂單活動和提前付款時間推動的。這使我們有望在今年產生正的自由現金流，並在 2023 年產生更高的現金流。

We still think about our performance in 3 parts and remain confident about the trajectory. First, as Dave mentioned, we made progress on key milestones. We're nearing a return for the 87 and are preparing airplanes for delivery. We continue to focus on 37 production stability of 31 MAXs per month. And we've derisked China from our near-term delivery profile.

我們仍然從三個方面考慮我們的表現，並對發展軌跡保持信心。首先，正如 Dave 提到的，我們在關鍵里程碑上取得了進展。我們即將返回 87，並正在準備交付飛機。我們繼續關注每月 31 個 MAX 的 37 個生產穩定性。我們已經從近期交付情況中剔除了中國的風險。

Next, as we see continued progress on these programs, we anticipate improvement in our performance metrics, including deliveries, revenue, margin and cash flow in the back half of the year. We also expect cash flow benefits from order activity and favorable receipt timing over the next 2 quarters.

接下來，隨著我們看到這些計劃的持續進展，我們預計我們的績效指標會有所改善，包括今年下半年的交付、收入、利潤率和現金流。我們還預計未來兩個季度訂單活動和有利的收貨時間將帶來現金流收益。

Finally, our financial performance should start to accelerate into 2023. Going forward, there is a significant opportunity for our company to return to sustainable growth. And we look forward to sharing our plans at our Investor Day on November 1 and 2.

最後，我們的財務業績應該開始加速到 2023 年。展望未來，我們公司有很大的機會恢復可持續增長。我們期待在 11 月 1 日和 2 日的投資者日分享我們的計劃。

Before getting into the financials, I want to make a few points on the current business environment on Slide 3. Demand for commercial airplanes is strong, especially in the freighter market. We've seen cargo traffic increase from 2019 levels largely driven by e-commerce and the efficiency of air freight. With more than 90% share of the freighter market, our lineup is well positioned to capture continued growth.

在進入財務之前，我想在幻燈片 3 上對當前的商業環境提出幾點看法。對商用飛機的需求強勁，尤其是在貨機市場。我們已經看到貨運量從 2019 年的水平增加，主要是受電子商務和空運效率的推動。憑藉超過 90% 的貨運市場份額，我們的陣容能夠很好地把握持續增長。

On the passenger side, traffic has recovered significantly but is still well below where it's been historically relative to global GDP. As airlines are currently in the middle of the summer high season, operational and supply constraints are becoming the pacing item for air traffic growth in the markets leading the recovery.

在客運方面，交通量已顯著恢復，但仍遠低於歷史上相對於全球 GDP 的水平。由於航空公司目前正處於夏季旺季中期，運營和供應限制正在成為引領復甦的市場中空中交通增長的節奏項目。

That said, the commercial traffic recovery is accelerating. And passenger traffic has reached its highest point since 2019 in both North America and Europe. Domestic traffic remained relatively stable at 77% of 2019 levels as of May. While China still lags significantly, we saw some improvements in flight operations in June as travel restrictions lifted. Excluding China, domestic traffic was over 90% of 2019 levels.

也就是說，商業流量的複蘇正在加速。北美和歐洲的客運量均達到 2019 年以來的最高點。截至 5 月，國內客流量保持相對穩定，為 2019 年水平的 77%。儘管中國仍顯著落後，但隨著旅行限制的解除，我們看到 6 月份的航班運營有所改善。不包括中國，國內流量超過 2019 年水平的 90%。

International traffic is gaining momentum at 64% of 2019, up from just 48% in March, especially in regional markets such as intra-Europe, transatlantic and U.S.-Mexico as well as notable improvements via the Middle East and in some parts of Asia. Overall, our commercial passenger market recovery expectations are in line with what we've shared previously. We still see overall passenger traffic returning to 2019 levels in the 2023 to 2024 time frame.

2019 年國際客運量增長勢頭為 64%，高於 3 月份的 48%，尤其是在歐洲內部、跨大西洋和美國-墨西哥等區域市場，以及中東和亞洲部分地區的顯著改善。總體而言，我們的商業客運市場復甦預期與我們之前分享的一致。我們仍然看到在 2023 年至 2024 年的時間範圍內，總體客運量將恢復到 2019 年的水平。

Taking all of this into consideration, we recently released our 2022 commercial market outlook, which forecasts a total addressable market valued at more than $3.3 trillion over the next decade and demand for nearly 20,000 airplanes. The forecast closely aligns to what we laid out last year and reflects the market's continued recovery.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們最近發布了 2022 年商業市場展望，預測未來十年總可尋址市場價值超過 3.3 萬億美元，對近 20,000 架飛機的需求。該預測與我們去年的預測非常吻合，反映了市場的持續復甦。

More specifically, we anticipate demand for more than 14,000 narrow-bodies or over 120 per month on average over the next 10 years. From a 20-year perspective, we project demand for more than 41,000 new airplanes, including 940 dedicated freighters.

更具體地說，我們預計未來 10 年平均每月需要超過 14,000 個窄體或超過 120 個。從 20 年的角度來看，我們預計將有超過 41,000 架新飛機的需求，其中包括 940 架專用貨機。

We are very confident in our product lineup, which is well suited to capture this long-term demand. And we feel very good about last week with over 200 orders and commitments at Farnborough. We appreciate the trust and confidence our customers are placing in us.

我們對我們的產品陣容非常有信心，它非常適合捕捉這一長期需求。我們對上週在範堡羅的 200 多個訂單和承諾感到非常滿意。我們感謝客戶對我們的信任和信心。

Our services business also continues to benefit from growing commercial fleet and strong cargo markets with several Boeing converted freighter and materials management agreements recently announced. Over the next 10 years, we see a $3.3 trillion service market that aligns well with our broad customer-focused portfolio of offerings.

我們的服務業務還繼續受益於不斷增長的商業機隊和強勁的貨運市場，最近宣布了幾項波音改裝貨機和材料管理協議。在接下來的 10 年中，我們看到了一個價值 3.3 萬億美元的服務市場，這與我們以客戶為中心的廣泛產品組合非常吻合。

In Defense and Space, we see solid long-term markets, both domestically and internationally. In the United States, there is support for increased defense spending in Congress to meet the challenges of today. Internationally, many of our fellow NATO members, partners and allies have announced plans for increased spending on national defense, and we look forward to more specifics around these priorities.

在國防和太空領域，我們看到了國內和國際穩固的長期市場。在美國，國會支持增加國防開支以應對當今的挑戰。在國際上，我們的許多北約成員、夥伴和盟國已經宣布了增加國防開支的計劃，我們期待圍繞這些優先事項的更多細節。

Turning to the supply chain. We continue to experience real constraints. We're taking action to mitigate risk in a number of areas, including engines, raw materials and semiconductors. To stabilize production and support our supply chain, we're increasing our on-site presence at suppliers, creating teams of experts to address industry-wide shortages, utilizing internal fabrication for search capacity and managing inventory safety stock levels and growing where needed.

轉向供應鏈。我們繼續遇到真正的限制。我們正在採取行動降低多個領域的風險，包括發動機、原材料和半導體。為了穩定生產和支持我們的供應鏈，我們正在增加我們在供應商的現場存在，建立專家團隊來解決全行業的短缺問題，利用內部製造來提高搜索能力，管理庫存安全庫存水平並在需要的地方進行增長。

With that backdrop, let's turn to financials on Slide 4. Second quarter revenue of $16.7 billion declined 2%, and we generated $0.5 billion of core operating earnings. After accounting for interest expense and taxes, we had a core loss per share of $0.37. Operating cash flow was positive $0.1 billion, in line with our expectations and an improvement from the same period last year.

在這種背景下，讓我們轉向幻燈片 4 的財務數據。第二季度 167 億美元的收入下降了 2%，我們產生了 5 億美元的核心運營收益。考慮到利息費用和稅收後，我們的每股核心虧損為 0.37 美元。經營現金流為正 1 億美元，符合我們的預期，比去年同期有所改善。

Let's move to Commercial Airplanes on Slide 5. Second quarter revenue was $6.2 billion, up 3% primarily driven by higher 37 deliveries, partially offset by lower 87 deliveries. Operating losses of $0.2 billion and the resulting negative margin rate reflect abnormal costs and period expenses, including higher R&D expense as we continue to invest in the business.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 上的商用飛機。第二季度收入為 62 億美元，增長 3%，主要是由於 37 架交付量增加，部分被 87 架交付量減少所抵消。 2 億美元的運營虧損和由此產生的負利潤率反映了異常成本和期間費用，包括我們繼續投資該業務時更高的研發費用。

On the 87 program, we're very close to resuming deliveries. We're readying airplanes together with our customers and have completed flight checks on the initial airplanes. As always, we will follow the lead of the FAA on the specific timing.

在 87 計劃中，我們非常接近恢復交付。我們正在與客戶一起準備飛機，並已完成初始飛機的飛行檢查。與往常一樣，我們將在具體時間上遵循 FAA 的領導。

We have 120 airplanes in inventory and are making progress completing the necessary rework to prepare them for delivery. As stated last quarter, we're producing at very low rates and we'll continue to do so until deliveries resume, gradually returning to 5 airplanes per month over time.

我們有 120 架飛機庫存，並且正在完成必要的返工以準備交付。如上個季度所述，我們的生產速度非常低，我們將繼續這樣做，直到交付恢復，隨著時間的推移逐漸恢復到每月 5 架飛機。

Similar to the 37 program, the supply chain remains a key watch item for 87 production and deliveries. We recorded $283 million of 87 abnormal costs in line with expectations, and we still anticipate a total of about $2 billion with most being incurred by the end of 2023. These costs are driven by rework and production rates below 5 per month.

與 37 計劃類似，供應鏈仍然是 87 生產和交付的關鍵觀察項目。我們記錄了 87 項異常成本中的 2.83 億美元，符合預期，我們仍然預計總額約為 20 億美元，其中大部分將在 2023 年底發生。這些成本是由返工和每月低於 5 的生產率驅動的。

It is important to keep in mind that cash margins on the 87 remain positive and are expected to improve significantly over time. However, as we deliver the first few 87 airplanes, you may see some variability in cash payments as we compensate customers for delays.

重要的是要記住，87 的現金利潤率仍然是正數，並且預計會隨著時間的推移而顯著提高。但是，當我們交付前幾架 87 飛機時，您可能會看到現金支付的一些變化，因為我們會為延誤補償客戶。

The 87 continues to be the most utilized wide-body airplane due to its operational efficiency and flexibility. With over 400 airplanes in backlog, recent orders and commitments announced at Farnborough and additional demand as the commercial market recovers, we see a strong future for the 87 program.

由於其運行效率和靈活性，87 仍然是使用最多的寬體飛機。隨著 400 多架飛機的積壓、最近在範堡羅機場宣布的訂單和承諾以及隨著商業市場復甦的額外需求，我們看到了 87 計劃的強勁未來。

Moving on to the 37 program. We've delivered 189 airplanes year-to-date, below our original expectations due to 3 things: supply chain disruptions, flow time of taking airplanes out of storage and timing of deliveries to Chinese customers. We don't anticipate making up those deliveries in the back half of the year, and we'll continue to experience monthly variability, including a light month in July.

繼續 37 計劃。今年迄今為止，我們交付了 189 架飛機，低於我們最初的預期，原因有三：供應鏈中斷、飛機出庫的流動時間和交付給中國客戶的時間。我們預計不會在今年下半年完成這些交付，而且我們將繼續經歷每月的變化，包括 7 月的一個輕月。

We now expect delivery to be closer to the low 400s for 2022, short of what we discussed earlier this year as we drive stability and predictability. We ended the quarter with 290 MAX airplanes in inventory, of which roughly half are designated for customers in China. Given this uncertainty with our customers in China, we now expect more deliveries of airplanes from inventory to shift into 2024.

我們現在預計 2022 年的交付量將更接近 400 的低點，低於我們今年早些時候討論的，因為我們推動了穩定性和可預測性。截至本季度末，我們有 290 架 MAX 飛機庫存，其中大約一半是為中國客戶指定的。鑑於我們在中國的客戶存在這種不確定性，我們現在預計更多飛機的庫存交付將轉移到 2024 年。

Due to overall progress on MAX production, we did not book abnormal costs in the quarter. Additionally, we've reached agreement on over 95% of our MAX customer consideration liability.

由於 MAX 生產的整體進展，我們在本季度沒有記入異常成本。此外，我們已就超過 95% 的 MAX 客戶對價責任達成協議。

Shifting to the 777-9 program, our status is largely unchanged from what we shared last quarter. We still anticipate delivery of the first 777-9 airplane in 2025 and continue to coordinate with the FAA to prioritize resources across our development programs.

轉向 777-9 計劃，我們的狀態與上個季度分享的情況基本沒有變化。我們仍然預計在 2025 年交付第一架 777-9 飛機，並繼續與 FAA 協調，在我們的開發計劃中優先考慮資源。

We booked $102 million of 777 abnormal costs in the second quarter, in line with our expectations. And we still expect to record $1.5 billion of these costs through 2023 while 777-9 production remains paused.

我們在第二季度計入了 1.02 億美元的 777 異常成本，符合我們的預期。我們仍預計到 2023 年將記錄 15 億美元的這些成本，而 777-9 的生產仍將暫停。

Turning to overall demand at BCA. During the quarter, we booked 184 commercial airplane orders, including 169 orders for the 737 MAX. At the end of the second quarter, we had over 4,200 airplanes in backlog valued at $297 billion.

轉向 BCA 的整體需求。本季度，我們訂購了 184 架商用飛機訂單，其中 737 MAX 訂單為 169 架。在第二季度末，我們有超過 4,200 架飛機在積壓，價值 2,970 億美元。

Let's now move on to Defense, Space & Security on Slide 6. Second quarter revenue was $6.2 billion, down 10% driven by lower volume and operational performance. Operating margin was 1.1% driven by approximately $400 million of charges on fixed-price development programs, most notably $147 million on MQ-25 and $93 million on commercial crew.

現在讓我們繼續討論幻燈片 6 中的國防、空間和安全。第二季度收入為 62 億美元，由於銷量和運營業績下降，下降了 10%。營業利潤率為 1.1%，主要是由於固定價格開發項目的費用約為 4 億美元，其中最引人注目的是 MQ-25 的 1.47 億美元和商業船員的 9300 萬美元。

This total also includes relatively small cost growth on the T-7A tanker and VC-25B, with no one program impacted by more than about $50 million. And the drivers were largely supply chain impact and inflation. All of this will be outlined in the Q.

這一總額還包括 T-7A 加油機和 VC-25B 相對較小的成本增長，沒有一個項目受到的影響超過約 5000 萬美元。驅動因素主要是供應鏈影響和通貨膨脹。所有這些都將在 Q 中概述。

We also saw these same pressures across a few of the mature programs. While this performance was disappointing, we're making progress narrowing our development risk profile and remain confident over the long term.

我們在一些成熟的項目中也看到了同樣的壓力。雖然這一表現令人失望，但我們正在縮小我們的開發風險狀況並在長期內保持信心。

We received $2 billion in orders during the quarter, and BDS backlog was $55 billion. Additionally, the Chinook helicopter has been selected to bring heavy lift capability to the German military. We also achieved important milestones across the portfolio. NASA's Space Launch System completed a wet dress rehearsal, and the KC-46A tanker is now certified to refuel 97% of the military's air refuellable fleet.

我們在本季度收到了 20 億美元的訂單，BDS 積壓的訂單為 550 億美元。此外，支奴干直升機已被選中為德國軍方帶來重型起重能力。我們還在整個投資組合中實現了重要的里程碑。 NASA 的太空發射系統完成了一次濕裝彩排，KC-46A 加油機現已獲得認證，可為軍方 97% 的空中加油機隊加油。

Let's now turn to Global Services results on Slide 7. The Global Services team celebrated its fifth anniversary this month and continues to perform well, especially in our parts and commercial training businesses. We're encouraged by the overall momentum.

現在讓我們看看幻燈片 7 上的全球服務結果。全球服務團隊本月慶祝成立五週年，並繼續表現良好，尤其是在我們的零件和商業培訓業務方面。我們對整體勢頭感到鼓舞。

Second quarter revenue was $4.3 billion, up 6%, and operating margin was 16.9%. Results were driven by higher commercial services volume now nearly back to pre-pandemic levels and favorable mix. We also discontinued an engine distribution agreement in the quarter, which will impact our government service revenue profile going forward.

第二季度收入為 43 億美元，增長 6%，營業利潤率為 16.9%。結果是由更高的商業服務量推動的，現在幾乎回到了大流行前的水平和有利的組合。我們還在本季度終止了發動機分銷協議，這將影響我們未來的政府服務收入狀況。

We received $4 billion in orders during the quarter, including a contract for airlift flight dispatch services for the U.S. Air Force and a contract for avionics upgrades and cybersecurity support for the U.S. Navy. The BGS backlog is $19 billion. With strong support for our defense business and our highly valid commercial capabilities, our services business is poised for growth as the commercial market continues to recover.

我們在本季度收到了 40 億美元的訂單，其中包括為美國空軍提供空運飛行調度服務的合同，以及為美國海軍提供航空電子設備升級和網絡安全支持的合同。 BGS 的待辦事項為 190 億美元。憑藉對我們國防業務的大力支持和我們高度有效的商業能力，我們的服務業務有望隨著商業市場的持續復甦而增長。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 to cover cash and debt. We ended the second quarter with strong liquidity comprised of $11.4 billion of cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet and access to $14.7 billion across our bank credit facilities, which remain undrawn. Our debt balance decreased slightly from the end of last quarter to $57.2 billion driven by repayment of maturing debt. Our investment-grade credit rating is a priority. And we remain committed to reducing debt levels through strong cash flow generation over time.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 來討論現金和債務。我們在第二季度結束時擁有強大的流動性，包括資產負債表上 114 億美元的現金和有價證券，以及我們尚未提取的銀行信貸額度中的 147 億美元。在償還到期債務的推動下，我們的債務餘額較上季度末略有下降至 572 億美元。我們的投資級信用評級是我們的首要任務。我們仍然致力於通過隨著時間的推移產生強勁的現金流來降低債務水平。

As far as the rest of the year is concerned, we still anticipate 2022 total company revenue to be higher than last year primarily driven by higher commercial airplane deliveries on the 37 and 87 programs and growth in our services business, partially offset by lower defense revenue. Looking into 2023, we expect total company revenue growth from this year.

就今年剩餘時間而言，我們仍預計 2022 年公司總收入將高於去年，這主要是由於 37 和 87 計劃的商用飛機交付量增加以及我們服務業務的增長，部分被國防收入下降所抵消.展望 2023 年，我們預計公司總收入將從今年開始增長。

BCA revenue is planned to be higher again on 37 and 87 deliveries. The demand outlook for the defense business remains steady, and we expect 2023 revenue to be better than 2022 as the business stabilizes. While we forecast BGS revenue to continue to grow next year, the growth rate will be tempered as we are nearly back to pre-pandemic levels.

BCA 收入計劃在 37 次和 87 次交付時再次增加。國防業務的需求前景保持穩定，隨著業務的穩定，我們預計 2023 年的收入將好於 2022 年。雖然我們預測 BGS 明年的收入將繼續增長，但隨著我們幾乎回到大流行前的水平，增長率將有所放緩。

Turning to cash. We still expect to generate positive free cash flow this year. And the key drivers of second half improvement are higher 37 and 87 delivery volume, orders of advanced payments, BDS receipts as well as favorable expenditure timing.

轉向現金。我們仍預計今年將產生正的自由現金流。下半年改善的主要驅動因素是更高的 37 和 87 交付量、預付款訂單、BDS 收據以及有利的支出時機。

As we look to 2023, we still expect cash flow will be higher than 2022, and we plan to share more details in November. Overall, our performance is tied to several key items: supply chain, production system and delivery stability, 37 and 87 delivery ramp, successful execution and certification of development programs, the commercial market recovery and the macroeconomic environment.

展望 2023 年，我們仍然預計現金流將高於 2022 年，我們計劃在 11 月分享更多細節。總體而言，我們的業績與幾個關鍵項目相關：供應鏈、生產系統和交付穩定性、37 和 87 交付斜坡、開發計劃的成功執行和認證、商業市場復甦和宏觀經濟環境。

While our progress depends on some factors beyond our control, we'll remain focused on our own performance and taking the right actions to drive stability and predictability and growth in the future. Taking a step back, this business and our team have come a long way over the last few years. We've seen our fair share of challenges and more hurdles still remain, but we're making progress. Demand for our product is strong. We're investing in our future, and our people are demonstrating exceptional commitment.

雖然我們的進展取決於一些我們無法控制的因素，但我們將繼續專注於我們自己的表現並採取正確的行動來推動未來的穩定性、可預測性和增長。退後一步，這項業務和我們的團隊在過去幾年中取得了長足的進步。我們已經看到了相當多的挑戰，並且仍然存在更多障礙，但我們正在取得進展。對我們產品的需求強勁。我們正在投資於我們的未來，我們的員工正在表現出非凡的承諾。

With that, over to Dave for closing comments.

有了這個，給戴夫結束評論。

Yes, I'll keep them brief. We do believe we're in the middle of a momentum shift. We're all anxious and looking forward to delivery of our important airplane, the 787. Again, a reminder of how well it is performing in the field, and therefore, this delivery stream is critically important to our customers.

是的，我會保持簡短。我們確實相信我們正處於動力轉變的中間。我們都很焦慮並期待著我們重要的飛機 787 的交付。再次提醒人們它在現場的表現如何，因此，這種交付流對我們的客戶至關重要。

So I'll leave it with that, and turn it over to Q&A.

所以我會留下它，並將其交給問答環節。

Yes. Thanks, Dave. Before we start the Q&A, as I noted at the beginning of this call, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today. Projections, estimates and goals we include in our discussions this morning involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the disclaimer at the end of this web presentation. Please also refer to those materials for a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

是的。謝謝，戴夫。正如我在本次電話會議開始時指出的那樣，在開始問答之前，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務信息。我們在今天上午的討論中包含的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和本網絡演示文稿末尾的免責聲明中描述的風險。另請參閱這些材料以了解某些非公認會計原則措施的對賬。

With that, as Dave said, we are now prepared to take your questions.

有了這個，正如戴夫所說，我們現在準備回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein。

When you look to this year and are looking at positive free cash flow for the year, it appears to really depend heavily on 2 things: the delivery restart of the 787 and the deliveries for the -- the ramp in deliveries for the MAX, which you're now saying you're going to get to the low 400s on this.

當你展望今年並看到今年的正自由現金流時，它似乎在很大程度上取決於兩件事：787 的交付重啟和 MAX 交付量的增加，這你現在說你會在這方面達到 400 的低點。

If you look at those 2 parts, I mean, the 787, could you describe on that one what gives you confidence now that you are so close? We've heard things before, optimism about a near restart. But this appears to be much more imminent now, I would guess, even though I know you're not going to try and predict the FAA's timing. So that's on the 787.

如果你看看這兩個部分，我的意思是，787，你能描述一下是什麼讓你現在如此接近，讓你有信心嗎？我們之前聽說過，對即將重啟的樂觀情緒。但我猜現在這似乎更加迫在眉睫，即使我知道你不會試圖預測 FAA 的時間安排。那是在787上。

And when you go over to the MAX, you've taken that number down into the low 400s. Can you talk about what you need out of that MAX profile to be on this positive cash flow time frame -- timing?

當你轉到 MAX 時，你已經把這個數字降到了 400 的低位。您能否談談您需要從 MAX 配置文件中獲得什麼才能在這個正現金流時間範圍內——時機？

And then what's the split between stored and new production? So a lot of things there but all in that positive free cash flow objective.

那麼存儲產品和新產品之間的區別是什麼？那裡有很多東西，但都在積極的自由現金流目標中。

Yes, Doug. So why don't I start with 87 predictability? So like we said and like you acknowledged, we can't give you a date. But what we do track is all the work, any issues that the -- both teams have wrestled with over this time. And we are approaching closure on all of that. The number of documents, the number of analyses, the number of sign-offs has progressed at a fairly rapid rate here toward the close.

是的，道格。那麼我為什麼不從 87 可預測性開始呢？所以就像我們說的和你承認的那樣，我們不能給你一個日期。但是我們跟踪的是所有的工作，以及這兩個團隊在這段時間裡都在努力解決的任何問題。我們正在接近關閉所有這些。文件的數量、分析的數量、簽署的數量在接近尾聲時以相當快的速度增長。

So we see that documentation phase, which has been a lion's share of the phase, as closing relatively soon and then, therefore, the readiness of airplanes, which we have been working on at exactly the same moments simultaneously, has also been in shape to the point where customers are climbing around the airplanes and making certain that they are also ready for delivery and acceptance.

因此，我們看到文件階段，這是該階段的最大份額，將相對較快地結束，因此，我們在完全相同的時刻同時進行的飛機準備工作也已形成客戶在飛機周圍攀爬並確保他們也準備好交付和接受的地方。

So all that's coming together. And yes, the FAA remains in control, but there's just enough workload on sort of both fronts, readiness of the airplane and the documentation and certification requirement that we just feel like we're on the verge and are reasonably confident in that front.

所以所有這些都在一起了。是的，FAA 仍然處於控制之中，但是在飛機的準備情況以及文件和認證要求這兩個方面都有足夠的工作量，我們只是覺得我們正處於邊緣並且在這方面有合理的信心。

So that's why I feel different this time. And I will acknowledge, Doug, that we have felt like it was at near term in previous periods, but not with the same level of due diligence that I feel now. On the MAX delivery front, let me turn it over to Brian. He's got all the numbers.

所以這就是我這次感覺不同的原因。道格，我承認，我們在前幾個時期感覺就像是在短期內，但不像我現在所感受到的盡職調查水平。在 MAX 交付方面，讓我把它交給布賴恩。他掌握了所有的數字。

Yes. So thanks, Doug. So the low 400s, we think the balance of the year, we'll satisfy the cash flow requirements to do their fair share of that total picture. So we think that's pretty well aligned.

是的。所以謝謝，道格。所以低 400，我們認為今年的餘額，我們將滿足現金流要求，以在總體情況中公平分享。所以我們認為這非常一致。

In terms of what's coming out of inventory versus the production line, our biggest objective on both fronts is to do both in a stable manner. And as you can see from our numbers, we've been doing about 10-ish out of storage this last quarter. We continue to get a little bit better on that front. So that's something that we're going to work hard on as we turn the corner in the second half of the year. So both are very important and doing both in a stable, predictable manner, gets to that low 400 for the year.

就庫存與生產線的產出而言，我們在這兩個方面的最大目標是以穩定的方式進行。正如您從我們的數據中看到的那樣，我們在上個季度已經做了大約 10-ish 的存儲空間。我們在這方面繼續做得更好。所以這是我們在下半年轉折時要努力的事情。因此，兩者都非常重要，並且以穩定、可預測的方式完成這兩項工作，可以達到今年的最低 400 分。

I will also indicate there's 3 really other important levers of the cash flows in the back half as a bridge from the first half. You mentioned the big 2, the 37 and the 87 deliveries. But there's also going to be favorability, timing from BDS receipts that will work to our favor. There'll be favorability of expense timing that will accrue to us. And there will be higher order activity in advanced payments, particularly driven by the 777 adjustments that we made last quarter.

我還將指出，後半部分的現金流還有 3 個非常重要的槓桿，作為與上半年的橋樑。您提到了 big 2、37 和 87 交付。但也會有好感度，來自 BDS 收據的時機對我們有利。費用時間安排對我們有利。預付款的訂單活動將會增加，特別是在我們上個季度進行的 777 調整的推動下。

Remember, we added metal wing capacity and the launch of the 777X freighter version. And all of those benefits are going to manifest themselves in helping the cash trajectory in the second half versus the first half. So those are the big pieces that we think about.

請記住，我們增加了金屬機翼容量並推出了 777X 貨機版本。所有這些好處都將體現在幫助下半年與上半年的現金軌跡上。所以這些是我們考慮的重要部分。

Next, we'll go to Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

接下來，我們將與 Melius Research 一起前往 Rob Spingarn。

Dave, you opened with the supply chain and the troubles there. And I have a specific supply chain question and something more general on rates. Given your engine background from GE, how do we solve this casting shortfall that's now plagued the industry twice in recent years, both now and I want to say around 2018? Is this a short-term cyclical issue? Or is there a greater structural problem? So that's the first question.

戴夫，你打開了供應鍊和那裡的麻煩。我有一個具體的供應鏈問題和更一般的費率問題。鑑於您在 GE 的發動機背景，我們如何解決近年來困擾該行業兩次的鑄造短缺問題，現在和我想說的是 2018 年左右？這是一個短期的周期性問題嗎？還是存在更大的結構性問題？所以這是第一個問題。

The second question, Brian touched on '23 and the significance of the MAX and the 87 ramp. I wanted to see if you could boundary the MAX production rate on the low and high end perhaps with the trajectory perhaps with and without China.

第二個問題，Brian 談到了 23 年以及 MAX 和 87 坡道的意義。我想看看你是否可以在低端和高端將 MAX 生產率與可能有或沒有中國的軌跡劃定界限。

So let me discuss the engine-related. It is a very important issue to be resolved, and it is not yet resolved, that structural casting part of the puzzle. You may recall 2 or 3 meetings ago at this, I acknowledge that would eventually be the issue. And of course, it is.

所以讓我討論一下與引擎有關的問題。這是一個非常重要的有待解決的問題，而且還沒有解決，即結構鑄造部分的難題。您可能還記得 2 或 3 次之前的會議，我承認這最終會成為問題。當然，它是。

So that capacity is limited. It's not just about money, it's qualification. It's one of the toughest components inside the supply chain to ultimately get to a qualified status as well as just the sheer physical capacity to do it.

所以這個容量是有限的。這不僅僅是錢，而是資格。它是供應鏈中最難最終達到合格狀態的組成部分之一，而純粹的物理能力也是如此。

So I do think we all have to moderate our rates to make sure that we are ahead of that. And I do think the work that we've done, unfortunately, our choice not to move up to 38 here as soon as we had originally predicted is honestly based on that constraint. But I do believe we're at a state now we're at 31, we're comfortable the industry can get there and maybe have already gotten there. And then we're going to watch as they qualify more capacity going forward to make -- before we pull those rates up.

所以我確實認為我們都必須降低利率，以確保我們領先。我確實認為我們所做的工作，不幸的是，我們選擇不按照我們最初的預測立即提升到 38 是誠實地基於該限制。但我確實相信我們現在處於 31 歲的狀態，我們對這個行業可以到達那裡感到滿意，也許已經到達那裡。然後我們將觀察他們是否有資格獲得更多的產能——在我們提高這些費率之前。

So is it medium and long term? Somehow some way that constraint in my view in the next 3 to 5 years has to get solved itself. Some investment has to get made, and capacity has to expand for the engine suppliers to keep up with what I believe will be continued robust demand. So it may not be a satisfactory answer, but that is the reality of the world I've lived in for the last 20 years. So -- and then with respect to the other parts of the question, I'll flip it over to Brian again.

那麼它是中長期的嗎？在我看來，在接下來的 3 到 5 年內，這種限制必須以某種方式自行解決。必須進行一些投資，並且必須擴大發動機供應商的產能，以跟上我認為將持續強勁的需求。所以這可能不是一個令人滿意的答案，但這就是我過去 20 年來所生活的世界的現實。所以——然後關於問題的其他部分，我將再次將其轉給Brian。

Yes. For rate, production rate, I wouldn't worry about China. As Dave -- we've continually talked about, we enjoy a pretty robust demand market. And the China delivery and when that happens, it's separate from our ability to move rate given the other demand in the marketplace. So I think I separate those two. It's not a pacing item.

是的。對於速度，生產率，我不會擔心中國。正如戴夫——我們一直在談論，我們享有相當強勁的需求市場。而中國交付以及發生這種情況時，考慮到市場上的其他需求，它與我們移動利率的能力是分開的。所以我想我把這兩者分開。這不是一個節奏項目。

What does the trajectory look like?

軌跡是什麼樣的？

For?

為了？

For MAX production. So Dave just talked about 38. Do we know when that's going to happen?

用於 MAX 生產。所以戴夫剛剛談到了38。我們知道什麼時候會發生嗎？

No, I'll answer that. The answer is I don't know when that will happen. Stability at 31 and then confidence that engine suppliers will have their castings in order and can predict a steady delivery at 38. That will then initiate us to say now it's 38. I don't want to get ahead of ourselves. Stability for me is still job one, and that's what we'll stay focused on. Do I think it will be better next year? Yes, but I don't know exactly when, and I don't want to get ahead of myself.

不，我會回答這個問題。答案是我不知道什麼時候會發生。穩定在 31 歲，然後相信發動機供應商將有他們的鑄件，並且可以預測在 38 歲時穩定交付。這將促使我們說現在是 38 歲。我不想超越自己。對我來說，穩定仍然是一項工作，這就是我們將繼續關注的重點。我認為明年會更好嗎？是的，但我不知道確切的時間，而且我不想超越自己。

Next, we go to Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

接下來，我們和 Jefferies 一起去 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe if we could talk about commercial profitability. If we strip out the abnormal cost on the 87 as well as the 777, you're at 2.3% operating margins in the quarter with an average of 33 MAXs produced or delivered. So how do we think about how margins come back as maybe the 787 comes in, the supply chain pressures alleviate? How should we look on for the step-up of commercial operating margins?

也許我們可以談談商業盈利能力。如果我們剔除 87 和 777 的異常成本，您在本季度的營業利潤率為 2.3%，平均生產或交付了 33 架 MAX。那麼，隨著 787 的到來，我們如何看待利潤率如何恢復，供應鏈壓力會減輕？我們應該如何看待商業運營利潤率的提升？

Yes. So in the short term, it will be a little bumpy as we start to roll out the 87s and continue to get confidence in our stability in 37s. But over time, when we get to a point where both are stable and operating where we expect them to, the margin rate is going to go up.

是的。所以在短期內，隨著我們開始推出 87s 並繼續對我們在 37s 中的穩定性充滿信心，這將是一個小小的坎坷。但隨著時間的推移，當我們達到兩者都穩定並按照我們預期的方式運行時，保證金率將會上升。

I can't predict the number. I won't predict the number, but they are going to get better and better because we are going to be more predictably in a stable fashion to be able to deliver on both fronts. Anyway.

我無法預測數字。我不會預測這個數字，但它們會變得越來越好，因為我們將以更穩定的方式更可預測地在兩個方面都能夠交付。反正。

And next, we'll go to Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將與高盛一起去諾亞波波納克。

I'm just going to circle back to this MAX delivery discussion because it's a bit confusing. If I -- depending on how you define low 400, if I subtract the first half from that and divide by 6, it suggests the delivery pace would slow compared to what you did in June. And that's with a higher production rate. So the -- suggests the inventory unwind is slowing. So why would that happen?

我將回到這個 MAX 交付討論，因為它有點令人困惑。如果我 - 取決於您如何定義低 400，如果我從中減去上半年並除以 6，則表明與您在 6 月份所做的相比，交付速度會放緩。那是更高的生產率。因此——表明庫存清盤正在放緩。那麼為什麼會這樣呢？

And then just on this underlying rate, I mean, any supplier we talk to says they're kind of ready to go and just waiting for direction from you that they're not getting. The leasing companies are saying there's a narrow-body shortage. You have a competitor at a much higher rate. Is it -- is your answer to Rob's question that it's just purely forgings and castings and otherwise, you'd be higher? It's a little hard to square the circle on all of those inputs.

然後就這個基本費率，我的意思是，我們與之交談的任何供應商都表示他們已經準備好了，只是在等待你的指示，而他們沒有得到。租賃公司表示存在窄體短缺。你有一個高得多的競爭對手。是不是——你對 Rob 的問題的回答是，它只是純粹的鍛件和鑄件，否則，你會更高嗎？在所有這些輸入上求圓有點困難。

Before Brian gets in the -- it's never about any supplier. It's about one or two that surprised you one way or the other. And with respect to medium or longer-term rate increases or changes, yes, it does actually get down to that engine supplier, and it does get down to those castings. So we have to be confident that they are ready and that we can count on those deliveries. So anyway, that is the world we live in now.

在布賴恩加入之前——這與任何供應商無關。大約有一兩個讓你驚訝的方式或其他方式。關於中期或長期利率的增加或變化，是的，它確實取決於那個發動機供應商，它確實取決於那些鑄件。因此，我們必須相信他們已經準備好並且我們可以依靠這些交付。所以無論如何，這就是我們現在生活的世界。

June, we're proud of the 43 that we're able to deliver. I want to caution everyone, as you remember, April was 28. May was 29. I just indicated that July is going to be a little light. So I don't want us to get ahead of ourselves in terms of taking the June rate and extrapolating it. That would be a mistake.

六月，我們為能夠交付的 43 台設備感到自豪。我想提醒大家，你們記得，4 月是 28 日。5 月是 29 日。我只是表示 7 月會有點亮。因此，我不希望我們在採用 6 月份的利率並進行推斷方面走在前面。那將是一個錯誤。

Month in and month out, we're aiming at stability around 31. Some months might be a little lower, some months might be a little higher. When we look at the whole balance to go and the things we're watching, we feel comfortable in that low 400 number. And hopefully, it will be better, but that's right now we're squaring to.

月復一月，我們的目標是穩定在 31 左右。有些月份可能會低一點，有些月份可能會高一點。當我們看到整個平衡和我們正在觀察的事情時，我們對這個低 400 的數字感到很自在。希望它會更好，但這就是我們現在正在努力的方向。

How much lead time do you feel like you need to give the broader supply chain to break to that next higher rate whenever that is?

您覺得需要多長時間才能讓更廣泛的供應鏈達到下一個更高的速度？

Well, first of all, we're doing our very best to be transparent, and we are always informing them that -- when we get close. How much lead time? I don't know, 3 or 4 months if it's a formal designation. But I think they're all -- like you said, I think a lot are prepared to get to those higher rates. But we need a few specific ones to be ready to get to those higher rates.

嗯，首先，我們正在盡最大努力保持透明，並且我們總是會通知他們——當我們接近時。交貨時間是多少？我不知道，3 或 4 個月是否是正式指定。但我認為他們都 - 就像你說的那樣，我認為很多人都準備好獲得更高的利率。但我們需要一些特定的來準備好達到更高的利率。

And I -- sorry to keep coming back to that, but that's really where it is. I think we have our eye squarely focused on the constraint that matters the most. And as that plays out, you'll probably know as fast as I do, and then we'll let that go to the rest of the market. I think the rest of the market will respond quickly.

我 - 很抱歉一直回到這個話題，但這就是它的所在。我認為我們的注意力完全集中在最重要的約束上。隨著這種情況的發生，你可能會和我一樣快地知道，然後我們會把它交給市場的其他部分。我認為其他市場將迅速做出反應。

And next, we'll go to David Strauss with Barclays.

接下來，我們將與巴克萊一起去大衛施特勞斯。

Dave, Brian, wanted to see if you could tell us how many roughly MAX -- or sorry, 787 deliveries you're assuming for the rest of the year because it's pretty hard to kind of bridge the positive free cash flow for the year without assuming a fair amount of 787 deliveries in the last 5 months. That's my first question.

戴夫，布賴恩，想看看你能不能告訴我們大概有多少 MAX - 或者對不起，你假設在今年剩下的時間裡有 787 次交付，因為很難在沒有的情況下彌合今年的正自由現金流假設過去 5 個月有相當數量的 787 次交付。這是我的第一個問題。

And then the second question, you've talked about a meaningful improvement in free cash flow in '23. I just wanted to see if you could put some bounds around that? Are we talking a couple billion dollars? Or are we talking -- the consensus right now is showing a $7 billion improvement in free cash flow next year. I want to see if that's within the realm of reason.

然後是第二個問題，您談到了 23 年自由現金流的顯著改善。我只是想看看你是否可以在這方面設置一些界限？我們說的是幾十億美元嗎？或者我們正在談論——目前的共識是明年的自由現金流將增加 70 億美元。我想看看這是否在合理範圍內。

Yes, sure. So your last question, can't wait for November to be able to give you more detail around that, and we'll wait until November.

是的，當然。所以你的最後一個問題是等到 11 月才能為你提供更多細節，我們會等到 11 月。

And then on your question on the 87 number, we're not going to give a number on that front. We want to get to one. And we're really excited to get to one as fast as we can. And once that plays out, we'll get more visibility. But it's a little too early to quantify that. Clearly, we've got an expectation that we're going to liquidate some 87s over the course of the second half, but I'm just a little cautious to stick a number out there.

然後關於你關於 87 號碼的問題，我們不會在這方面給出一個數字。我們想達到一個。我們真的很高興能盡快找到一個。一旦這種情況發生，我們將獲得更多的知名度。但現在量化這一點還為時過早。顯然，我們預計我們將在下半場清算一些 87s，但我只是有點謹慎地把數字放在那裡。

All right. A quick follow-up. Dave, the IG audit that's going on with the FAA and the change in leadership there, you don't think that potentially holds up the 87 at all?

好的。快速跟進。戴夫，美國聯邦航空局正在進行的 IG 審計以及那裡的領導層變動，你認為這根本不會支持 87 嗎？

I do not. I do not. And I've also asked that question many times. So I think we're in a good place.

我不。我不。我也多次問過這個問題。所以我認為我們處在一個好地方。

Again, I'm going to follow up just quickly with Brian's comment. We're not playing a game. We are working as hard as we can to get to stability in a tough environment. We chose that November meeting as a moment to sort of say, okay, where are we on stability, what is the framework for cash flow over the course of the next year.

同樣，我將很快跟進 Brian 的評論。我們不是在玩遊戲。我們正在盡最大努力在艱難的環境中保持穩定。我們選擇了 11 月的會議作為一個時刻，可以說，好吧，我們的穩定性在哪裡，明年的現金流框架是什麼。

We're looking forward to that day and that meeting. And I think at that moment in time, a lot of these variables will have resolved themselves, and we can give you a much clearer view of what the future looks like.

我們期待著那一天和那次會議。而且我認為到那個時候，很多這些變數都會自行解決，我們可以讓你更清楚地了解未來的樣子。

And next question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess, Brian, when we look at the advanced balance of $52 billion, I think it's higher than it was at the end of 2018 when rates were significantly higher. And it sounds like you're telling us that, that balance is going to be even higher still but perhaps significantly by December 31. Does that ever come down at some point? How do we kind of think about where that goes from here?

我想，布賴恩，當我們查看 520 億美元的預付款餘額時，我認為這比 2018 年底利率顯著更高時的水平要高。聽起來你是在告訴我們，到 12 月 31 日，這種平衡還會更高，但可能會顯著增加。這種平衡會在某個時候下降嗎？我們如何考慮從這裡開始？

And Dave, when you say having some visibility on some of these big questions at the November meeting, does that include potentially MAX deliveries into China?

戴夫，當你說在 11 月的會議上對其中一些重大問題有所了解時，這是否包括潛在的 MAX 交付到中國？

So we -- that balance did come down this quarter, and we do expect it to come down. It will. It will be the excess PDP burn down that will come down. But it gets offset by the benefit of incoming PDPs and order receipts. And we love that, right?

所以我們 - 本季度確實出現了這種平衡，我們確實預計它會下降。它會。這將是多餘的 PDP 燒毀將會下降。但它被傳入的 PDP 和訂單收據的好處所抵消。我們喜歡這樣，對吧？

There's a lever of our business that accrues to us. And the more we do that, the more we've got airplanes going to -- and commitments and orders to our customers. So -- but overall, the trajectory will have to fall quarter in, quarter out. It's hard to peg because of that accretive offset.

我們的業務有一個槓桿作用於我們。我們做的越多，我們的飛機就越多——以及對我們客戶的承諾和訂單。所以 - 但總體而言，軌跡將不得不四分之一，四分之一下降。由於增加的抵消，很難掛鉤。

But if you had in your model at some point like a requirement that this had to -- that there had to be some kind of $10-plus billion reduction in this balance at some point over time, is that just an incorrect understanding of how this all works?

但是，如果您的模型中在某個時刻有這樣的要求，那就是必須——隨著時間的推移，這種餘額必須減少 10 多億美元，這只是對如何實現這一點的錯誤理解嗎？所有作品？

Well, I'm not going to comment on $10 billion. I do know that there has to be the burn down of the excess, and that will happen over time. And we do our best to try to isolate that as terms of our projections.

好吧，我不打算對 100 億美元發表評論。我確實知道必須將多餘的東西燒掉，而且隨著時間的推移會發生。我們盡最大努力將其隔離為我們的預測。

On the other hand, the benefits of order volume is something that we benefit from as well. So it has been flattish over the last several quarters. It's been taking small chunks down, and we expect it to continue to come down. But I can't call it an order of magnitude of a $10 billion drop the way you're suggesting. There's just too many dynamics in there, and I'm reluctant to make those kind of statements.

另一方面，訂單量的好處也是我們從中受益的東西。因此，過去幾個季度一直持平。它一直在減少小塊，我們預計它會繼續下降。但我不能像你建議的那樣將其稱為 100 億美元的數量級下降。那裡有太多的動態，我不願意發表那種聲明。

And then with respect to China in November, I will give you the update. You will probably be as up to speed every week between now and then as I am because it does require a bit of a thawing and geopolitical break between China and the U.S. So at any rate, in the meantime, we do deliver airplanes occasionally to China based on pure need. And those are mostly widebodies and mostly cargo.

然後關於 11 月的中國，我會給你更新。從現在到那時，你可能每週都會像我一樣加快速度，因為這確實需要中美之間的解凍和地緣政治中斷。所以無論如何，與此同時，我們確實偶爾會向中國運送飛機基於純粹的需要。這些大多是寬體飛機，而且大多是貨物。

Next, we'll go to Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

接下來，我們將和 Cowen 一起去 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So it looks like you produced on average 24 737s in the second quarter. How comfortable are you that you can kind of sustain an average of 31 per month? Because I know that you pause when you have to even though the indicated line rate is 31.

是的。所以看起來你在第二季度平均生產了 24 737 架飛機。平均每月能維持 31 次，你覺得有多舒服？因為我知道即使指示的線路速率為 31，您也會在必要時暫停。

And secondly, if you can, should we estimate your production plus taking 10 or 12 out of inventory to kind of get to what we assume for the production rate in the second half?

其次，如果可以的話，我們是否應該估計您的產量加上從庫存中抽出 10 或 12 個以達到我們對下半年生產率的假設？

So I'll take the second part of that. I think that reliably month in, month out, we'll aim at 31. Anywhere from 8, 10, 12 is the range on liquidity from inventory. It could be in that kind of mix. And that gets you to the low 400s for the total year is the way I would think about it.

所以我將採取第二部分。我認為可靠的月復一月，我們的目標是 31。8、10、12 之間的任何地方都是庫存流動性的範圍。它可能是那種混合。這讓你全年降到 400 多歲，這就是我的想法。

I don't think the pieces go much below 8 coming from inventory, and I probably don't think we'd do better than 12 in any given month. But we will modulate between that and the production rates as we go into the back half of the year.

我認為庫存中的零件不會低於 8 件，而且我可能認為我們在任何給定月份都不會超過 12 件。但是隨著我們進入下半年，我們將在這和生產率之間進行調整。

And again, the average of 31 with respect to production is a clear objective of ours. Anything short of that will be disappointing. Our real objective though is to make that a stable rate in each of the months, and we're not there yet. So be careful to extrapolate any 1 month.

同樣，31 的平均產量是我們的明確目標。任何不足之處都會令人失望。不過，我們的真正目標是在每個月中保持穩定的速度，但我們還沒有做到。所以要小心推斷任何 1 個月。

And you've made the point that demand is so strong. What will you have to see to make the decision to raise the rate from 31 per month?

你已經指出需求如此強勁。做出從每月 31 起上調費率的決定，您需要看到什麼？

I'm going to get back to earlier questions. If I thought I had an engine supply, I'd do it today.

我要回到前面的問題。如果我認為我有發動機供應，我今天就會這樣做。

And next, we go to the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們與摩根士丹利一起前往 Kristine Liwag。

Dave, on the supply chain, how much will your mitigating actions cost in terms of higher labor costs or investments for internal fabrication or maybe even working capital for buffer stock? And also as a follow-up on the engine discussion earlier, what can you do to encourage investment casting suppliers to invest?

戴夫，在供應鏈上，就更高的勞動力成本或內部製造投資或什至緩衝庫存的營運資金而言，您的緩解措施將花費多少？並且作為前面引擎討論的後續，您可以做些什麼來鼓勵熔模鑄造供應商投資？

Well, that's -- well, I've been trying to encourage them for a very, very long time. Honestly, I think it's going to be, as is always the case, they're going to increase their margins. My guess is it will be considerable. I don't know all their contract timings and all their relationships with our engine suppliers.

嗯，那是——嗯，我一直在努力鼓勵他們很長一段時間。老實說，我認為他們會像往常一樣增加利潤。我的猜測是這將是可觀的。我不知道他們所有的合同時間以及他們與我們的發動機供應商的所有關係。

But you know how hard they're going to be working. And when those margins get to a point where everyone believes it's worth investing a significant amount of money, that's what they'll do. And I suspect that day will come.

但你知道他們會多麼努力地工作。當這些利潤達到每個人都認為值得投入大量資金的程度時，他們就會這樣做。我懷疑那一天會到來。

And I will encourage the industry in that way. And they're going to have to believe in our demand forecast, which, so far, I think we've been highly credible with respect to the long-term demand forecast for airplanes.

我會以這種方式鼓勵這個行業。他們將不得不相信我們的需求預測，到目前為止，我認為我們對飛機的長期需求預測非常可信。

So on the -- on all those readiness questions and investments, we are -- you're right to ask the question because we've said to everybody if you're in pursuit of predictability, then you have to invest in all those buffer stocks. And you have to stay ahead of this curve in every way that we possibly can.

所以關於所有這些準備問題和投資，我們是正確的，因為我們已經對每個人說，如果你追求可預測性，那麼你必須投資所有這些緩衝股票。你必須盡我們所能保持在這條曲線的前面。

And I'd say it's marginally more investment-intensive, but not enough to honestly make that big a difference for us going forward, especially when you compare it to our investment in finished goods inventory, which right now is a bit of an all-time high.

而且我會說它的投資密集程度略高，但還不足以真正為我們的未來帶來如此大的改變，尤其是當你將它與我們對成品庫存的投資進行比較時，現在這有點——時間高。

And I will also -- we haven't talked about it, just mentioned to everybody that while none of us like how we got here, if you are faced with a bunch of supply constraints as a market over the next couple of years, having over 400 airplanes that are finished at your fingertips, and yes, they're hard to get out and get ready and back into the marketplace, is a pretty good buffer in and of itself and allows us to exercise a little extra discipline on the stability front as we begin to march up that curve over the next 18 months. So anyway, I don't want that to get lost as a buffer overall.

而且我還將 - 我們還沒有談論它，只是向大家提到，雖然我們都不喜歡我們如何到達這裡，但如果你在接下來的幾年裡作為一個市場面臨一系列供應限制，有400 多架飛機觸手可及，是的，它們很難離開並準備好重新投入市場，它本身就是一個很好的緩衝，讓我們可以在穩定性方面進行一些額外的訓練在接下來的 18 個月裡，我們開始沿著這條曲線前進。所以無論如何，我不希望它作為一個緩衝而丟失。

And next, we go to the line of Rich Safran with Seaport Research Partners.

接下來，我們與 Seaport Research Partners 一起前往 Rich Safran 的路線。

I'd like to shift the topic to defense for just a minute, your comments about stable global demand. Could you also comment on international demand in general for defense equipment? And maybe in your answer, also comment about additional demand for your tanker programs, the 46 and MQ-25? And the reason why I'm asking this is I believe both these programs had quite aspirations for international sales. So I thought maybe you'd comment on that as well.

我想把話題轉移到防禦上，你對穩定的全球需求的評論。您能否評論一下國際對國防裝備的總體需求？也許在您的回答中，還評論對您的油輪計劃 46 和 MQ-25 的額外需求？我問這個的原因是我相信這兩個項目都對國際銷售抱有很大的期望。所以我想也許你也會對此發表評論。

Yes. No, I appreciate the question. And we've been bullish on international opportunities. I am more bullish now than I was when I even began, and I was -- again, I was optimistic there. And it is because of the world we see in front of us.

是的。不，我很欣賞這個問題。我們一直看好國際機遇。我現在甚至比剛開始時更加樂觀，而且我 - 再次，我在那裡很樂觀。這是因為我們眼前所見的世界。

It does take a couple of years to take the threats that are out there that manifest themselves into real orders and sort of long commitments. And I -- but I suspect that's the way this world will turn here in the next couple of years. We had some early shore indications from those closest to the conflict.

確實需要幾年的時間才能將存在的威脅轉化為真正的命令和某種長期承諾。而我——但我懷疑這就是未來幾年這個世界會變成這樣的方式。我們從最接近衝突的人那裡得到了一些早期的海岸跡象。

Our Chinook victory here came faster than maybe we would imagine. Why? Because our customer is right next to the front. So I am optimistic on the program specifically that you called out. They might be on the leading edge of that demand curve. But it's not going to happen in the next 6 months, and it's not going to -- it will take us probably a year to get to where that demand begins to manifest into real orders.

我們在這裡的奇努克勝利來得比我們想像的要快。為什麼？因為我們的客戶就在前面。因此，我對您特別提出的計劃持樂觀態度。他們可能處於需求曲線的前沿。但這不會在接下來的 6 個月內發生，也不會發生——我們可能需要一年的時間才能到達需求開始體現為實際訂單的地方。

And we'll go to George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們將和夏皮羅研究一起去喬治夏皮羅。

Dave, I'm trying to figure out where all the strong demand is coming from because the way I look at it, air show orders were the weakest since 2009 for both you and Airbus. You were better, obviously, but still weaker since 2016.

戴夫，我正試圖弄清楚所有強勁需求的來源，因為從我的角度來看，航展訂單對你和空客來說都是自 2009 年以來最弱的。顯然，你更好，但自 2016 年以來仍然更弱。

If domestic traffic returns to 2019 in 2023, then the same number of planes should be needed yet unless retirements really pick up to a level never before we've seen at 5% of the fleet versus the current 1.3, there's going to be 2,000 more planes than needed out there. So if you can kind of just reconcile where all the demand is coming from.

如果國內交通在 2023 年恢復到 2019 年，那麼應該需要相同數量的飛機，除非退役率真的上升到我們以前從未見過的水平，機隊的 5% 與目前的 1.3 相比，將會增加 2,000 架飛機比那裡需要。因此，如果您可以調和所有需求的來源。

Well, there are awful lot of irons in the fire. And like you, I try to compare and contrast how many irons in the fire now versus where they were. Certainly in the COVID period, significantly hotter. But even in that prior '19 world, there's just a lot of irons in the fire, and there's already a concern about supply constraints.

嗯，火裡有很多鐵桿。和你一樣，我試著比較和對比現在火裡有多少鐵桿和它們在哪裡。當然，在 COVID 時期，明顯更熱。但即使在 19 年之前的世界裡，也只有很多鐵桿在火中燃燒，而且已經存在對供應限制的擔憂。

So you know what that mix ends up doing. And then I will just add to that puzzle. You know the sustainability constraints. And while you may be skeptical and maybe I am too about renewal or taking airplanes out of service, I think that day is on us. And I think that's going to be real in the years ahead.

所以你知道這種混合最終會做什麼。然後我將添加到那個難題中。你知道可持續性的限制。雖然你可能持懷疑態度，也許我也很關心更新或讓飛機停止服務，但我認為那一天就在我們身上。我認為這將在未來幾年成為現實。

You'd be surprised how many of the orders, particularly in the mature markets like Europe, et cetera, where that is the discussion more than any other, which is we need to improve the sustainability performance of our fleets otherwise, we're going to lose ground.

您會驚訝於有多少訂單，特別是在歐洲等成熟市場，這是討論最多的地方，我們需要提高我們車隊的可持續性表現，否則，我們將失去陣地。

I will point, if you don't mind, to a tool we introduced at the show called Cascade, which is a measure of emissions for every airplane every day for everybody. And it's meant to be an open tool for the industry to use, think about policy changes and all those things that are going to incent the renewal of fleets and the improvement on this front. That tool is a tool that we'll show you in our November meeting, and it's one I hope you'll use because I do think that changes the -- that rate of retirement in a pretty big way.

如果你不介意的話，我會指出我們在展會上介紹的一個名為 Cascade 的工具，它是每個人每天每架飛機排放量的衡量標準。它意味著成為行業使用的開放工具，考慮政策變化以及所有將激勵機隊更新和這方面改進的事情。該工具是我們將在 11 月的會議上向您展示的工具，我希望您會使用它，因為我確實認為這會極大地改變退休率。

Yes. Because, I mean, you really got to get a level we've never seen before to get these 2,000 planes out. And I mean if I even just look at Delta and your recent order with Delta, they're not taking the MAX 10 till 2025. Right now, they've got 65 (inaudible) that are over 25 years old.

是的。因為，我的意思是，你真的必須達到我們以前從未見過的水平才能讓這 2000 架飛機起飛。我的意思是，如果我只看一下達美航空和您最近與達美航空的訂單，他們直到 2025 年才會使用 MAX 10。現在，他們有 65 個（聽不清）超過 25 年。

Yes. No, exactly. But those 25-year-olds, I believe the pressure on this will not subside. It will grow, and policies will get written.

是的。不，確切地說。但那些25歲的人，相信這方面的壓力不會消退。它會增長，政策會被寫入。

I think our trick here, honestly speaking, for the industry for a moment and as you get familiar with the tool that I'm referring to and think about this, our trick is to make sure that policy with respect to the environmental and sustainability performance of the aviation fleet does not get so far ahead of the industry that it stopped the music. We've seen that happen in the energy world a little bit.

老實說，我認為我們在這裡的訣竅是暫時對行業而言，當您熟悉我所指的工具並考慮這一點時，我們的訣竅是確保有關環境和可持續發展績效的政策的航空機隊並沒有遠遠領先於行業，以至於它停止了音樂。我們已經在能源領域看到了一些情況。

I don't want to see that happen in the aviation world. So that's why this tool is important to us. Incent the retirement of some of the old, less efficient airplanes. And yes, that's good for us and good for the industry, but also educate the policymakers so they don't get so far ahead that it begins to constrain the industry's growth.

我不想看到這種情況發生在航空界。這就是為什麼這個工具對我們很重要。鼓勵一些舊的、效率較低的飛機退役。是的，這對我們和行業都有好處，但也可以教育政策制定者，以免他們走得太遠以至於開始限制行業的增長。

And how do you think increasing recession concerns affect this? You would think there'd be less retirements then?

您認為日益增長的經濟衰退擔憂會如何影響這一點？你會認為退休人數會更少嗎？

Well, so far, I'm not sure I can draw the correlation all the way to retirement, but I -- this general recession thing so far hasn't impacted our aviation industry. Will it at some moment? Maybe.

好吧，到目前為止，我不確定我是否可以一直得出與退休之間的相關性，但是我 - 到目前為止，這種普遍的衰退事情並沒有影響我們的航空業。會在某個時候嗎？也許。

Price elasticity has been remarkable as I look at things. And demand for air travel, I think, has been prioritized fundamentally to a higher slot in the consumers' list of priorities. So anyway, I'm not smart enough to draw a perfect line between one and the other, but I believe that the retirement world is going to change in a pretty big way.

在我看來，價格彈性非常顯著。我認為，對航空旅行的需求從根本上被優先考慮到消費者優先事項列表中的更高位置。所以無論如何，我還不夠聰明，無法在兩者之間劃出完美的界限，但我相信退休世界將會發生很大的變化。

All right. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. This completes our second quarter 2022 earnings call.

好的。謝謝大家，今天早上加入我們。這完成了我們 2022 年第二季度的財報電話會議。