波音 (BA) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待。大家好，歡迎參加波音公司2021年第四季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音中。管理層討論、幻燈片演示以及分析師問答環節將透過網路進行直播。 （操作員指示）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

現在，我將把開場致詞和介紹環節交給波音公司投資者關係副總裁馬特·韋爾奇先生。韋爾奇先生，請開始。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Boeing's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝約翰，大家早安！歡迎參加波音2021年第四季財報電話會議。我是馬特‧韋爾奇，今天與我一起出席的還有波音總裁兼執行長戴夫‧卡爾霍恩，以及波音執行副總裁兼財務長布萊恩‧韋斯特。

And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation through our website at boeing.com. As always, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today.

提醒一下，您可以透過我們的網站 boeing.com 關註今天的廣播和幻燈片簡報。與往常一樣，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務資訊。

Projections, estimates and goals we include in our discussions this morning involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and certain -- and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

我們今天上午討論中提出的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件以及本網路簡報末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中所述的風險。此外，請參閱我們的收益報告和簡報，以了解揭露資訊以及某些非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳情況。

Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給戴夫·卡爾霍恩。

Yes. Thanks, Matt. Just upfront, we're changing this format just a bit so that I can limit my remarks upfront to some observations and thoughts with respect to where we are in this rebuilding process. And then Brian will take you into more detail on the financial side.

是的。謝謝，馬特。首先，我們稍微調整一下節目形式，這樣我就可以先把我的發言限制在對重建進程現狀的一些觀察和想法上。然後布萊恩會更詳細地介紹財務方面的情況。

With respect to the environment, there's no doubt Omicron has paused the industry recovery. But it has not changed the outlook for the industry recovery, such that while it might be delayed a few more months, the bookings and the customer discussions with respect to fleet plans, medium and long term, are still quite robust. And we are quite confident in that outlook.

就環境而言，毫無疑問，Omicron 暫停了產業復甦。但這並沒有改變產業復甦的前景。因此，儘管復甦可能會延遲幾個月，但中長期的訂單量以及與客戶就機隊計劃的討論仍然相當強勁。我們對這前景充滿信心。

2021 I would characterize for Boeing as a rebuilding year. We came from recovery to rebuilding. And I give our team a lot of credit for, frankly, making a lot of progress on that front. Number one, on the orders front and demand, particularly led by the MAX and the freighter market. I feel very good about where things are and the competitiveness of our product line with respect to that market.

我認為2021年對波音來說是重建之年。我們從復甦走向了重建。坦白說，我非常讚賞我們的團隊在這方面取得了很大進展。首先，訂單和需求方面，尤其是在737 MAX和貨機市場帶動下。我對目前的情況以及我們產品線在該市場的競爭力感到非常滿意。

Supply constraints to date have not constrained us. On the other hand, I think in the medium- to long-term future, it's something we all have to plan for. I've always viewed the unfortunate means by which we got here and the buildup of finished goods inventory, both with respect to the MAX and the 787. That's sort of a double-edged sword. I hate that we have a lot of inventory. On the other hand, it will probably serve us well in what is likely to be a robust recovery.

到目前為止，供應限制還沒有對我們造成限制。另一方面，我認為從中長期來看，這是我們都必須規劃的。我一直認為，我們走到今天這一步的不幸遭遇，以及成品庫存的積累，無論是 787 還是 777，都是如此。這就像一把雙面刃。我討厭我們庫存太多。另一方面，在可能強勁的復甦中，庫存可能會對我們有利。

With respect to fleet rebuilding, I would also just like to highlight the efficiency gains and maybe even more importantly, the emissions gains that our customers enjoy when they replace their current fleet with these new aircraft are significant, and the pressures are severe.

關於機隊重建，我還想強調效率的提高，甚至更重要的是，當我們的客戶用這些新飛機替換現有機隊時，他們將享受到顯著的排放改善，而且壓力也很大。

So I think that creates some additive pressure with respect to fleet renewals as we move forward. And I don't think either of those will let up.

因此，我認為這會對我們未來的機隊更新造成一些額外的壓力。而且我認為，這兩種壓力都不會減輕。

The MAX return to service. I'm quite proud of where we are on that. We have regulatory approval now in almost every jurisdiction in the world. You know that China, Indonesia and Ethiopia all delivered prior to the end of the year.

MAX復飛。我為我們目前的進展感到非常自豪。目前，我們幾乎在全球所有司法管轄區都獲得了監管部門的批准。您知道，中國、印尼和衣索比亞都在年底前完成了交付。

We delivered 245 airplanes in '21. We've flown safely over 800,000 flight hours, 99.3% service reliability. And we've now flown more post the MAX grounding than we did pre-MAX grounding.

我們在2021年交付了245架飛機。我們安全飛行了超過80萬飛行小時，服務可靠度高達99.3%。而且，在737 MAX停飛後，我們的飛行次數比停飛前還要多。

China is preparing for their MAX return to service and for delivery. And we have set up a plan that allows for that in the first quarter. But of course, they'll take them as the government returns the current fleet to service. Our customers are moving methodically and very well with respect to that return to service.

中國正在為737 MAX復飛和交付做準備。我們已經制定了計劃，以便在第一季實現這一目標。當然，隨著政府恢復現有機隊服役，他們也會接收這些737 MAX。我們的客戶在復飛方面進展順利，進展順利。

87, very unfortunate charge that we took here in the fourth quarter. It reflects everything we've learned about the rework process itself, the data required to restart deliveries and obtain ticketing and then customer expectations regarding concessions as we move forward. With all that said, I still feel fantastic about the future of the 787 airplane for The Boeing Company.

87，這是我們在第四季非常遺憾的損失。這反映了我們對返工流程本身、重啟交付和獲得出票所需數據以及客戶對我們未來優惠政策的期望的全面了解。儘管如此，我仍然對波音公司787飛機的未來充滿信心。

And anyway, as I think I point out every time we get together, these 87s today, the field -- the fleet and service is flying, is more utilized than any other wide-body airplane. It's -- 99% of it is in service today with respect to the pre-pandemic levels. And it's the most utilized wide-body out there, 98.99% reliability. So this is a great product line and a competitive product. And as soon as we begin delivery, we feel very good about the ultimate recovery.

無論如何，正如我每次聚會時都會強調的那樣，今天這87架飛機——包括機隊和服役的飛機——的利用率比任何其他寬體飛機都要高。與疫情前相比，目前這87架飛機的服役率高達99%。它是目前使用率最高的寬體飛機，可靠性高達98.99%。所以，這是一個很棒的產品線，也是一個極具競爭力的產品。一旦開始交付，我們對最終的復甦充滿信心。

On BDS, we did hit a bunch of really important milestones. The MQ-25, we experienced our first refueling, and we began carrier tests. The T-7A production line, which is based on significantly improved development process and engineering modeling capabilities, is off to a very good start. And the efficiency associated with that development process is being realized.

在北斗系統方面，我們確實取得了一系列非常重要的里程碑。 MQ-25無人機完成了首次加油，並開始了航空母艦測試。 T-7A生產線基於顯著改進的開發流程和工程建模能力，開局良好。與該開發流程相關的效率正在實現。

And then the tanker. The tanker today despite the charge, again, which we don't feel great about by any respect, but the tanker today is an incredible asset for our customer and now serves 70% of the missions that were intended in the development of the tanker. And our job is to continue to deliver the tanker and to do it more expeditiously as we move forward. The good news is our customer likes the performance of the airplane. And again, we intend to serve that need.

然後是加油機。儘管收費，但今天的加油機對我們的客戶來說是一筆寶貴的資產，它目前已執行了加油機研發計畫中70%的任務。我們的工作是繼續交付加油機，並在推進過程中更迅速地完成。好消息是，我們的客戶喜歡這架飛機的性能。我們再次強調，我們致力於滿足這項需求。

Global Services, it is recovering like all the service businesses that surround aviation. It's on a great path. The team is doing a terrific job. We had a small write-off with respect to materials that ultimately would not be utilized in this recovery. But BGS is doing quite well, and this is experiencing the recovery.

環球服務部，就像所有圍繞航空業的服務業務一樣，正在復甦。目前進展順利。團隊工作出色。我們有一些最終不會在此次復甦中使用的材料被小幅沖銷。但英國航空服務部（BGS）表現相當不錯，正在經歷復甦。

And then I feel very good about the free cash flow that we generated in the fourth quarter. As everybody knows, we have been focused relentlessly on improving our free cash flow situation. It has been our #1 metric. And to be able to achieve that, I think, is terrific news.

我對第四季產生的自由現金流感到非常滿意。眾所周知，我們一直致力於改善自由現金流狀況。這一直是我們的首要指標。能夠實現這一點，我認為這是一個好消息。

Sustainability, it is the one issue every customer wants to talk to us about not with respect to 2050 or 2035, but they want to make sure that we have a program in place that will support them over that time frame. And it is very important to the every next order that we achieve.

永續性是每個客戶都想與我們討論的問題，他們不是指2050年或2035年，而是希望我們有一個能夠支持他們度過這段時間的計畫。這對我們接下來的每個訂單都至關重要。

So believe it or not, the competition for today's airplanes is often built around the future plans that we have with respect to sustainability. And I love where we're going on that and the story we -- that we have for our customers.

所以，信不信由你，當今飛機市場的競爭往往圍繞著我們在永續發展方面的未來規劃。我非常欣賞我們在這方面的進展，以及我們為客戶講述的故事。

Innovation is strong in every way. I mentioned the MQ-25, the T-7A. Future capabilities with respect to the next development program, we've invested a lot. We continue to invest a lot. It's more important to me that we get our development tools where they need to be, demonstrate manufacturing capability and capacity where we need to be before we call out the spec on the next new commercial airplane. So I remain focused on that as a priority. And so far, so good.

創新在各方面都表現強勁。我提到了MQ-25和T-7A。關於下一個開發案的未來能力，我們已經投入了大量資金。我們還會繼續投入。對我來說，更重要的是，在公佈下一架新型商用飛機的規格之前，我們要將開發工具部署到位，並展示我們所需的製造能力和產能。因此，我將繼續把這當作優先事項。到目前為止，一切順利。

Talent, we were stable over the course of '21. Turnover was managed, I think, quite well and quite aggressively. And so I feel good about that and our ability to hire as we move forward. But I will also acknowledge that there are shortages out there in critical skills, and we have to be very competitive in order to get them.

人才方面，我們在2021年保持穩定。我認為，人員流失管理得相當好，也相當積極。因此，我對此感到滿意，也對我們未來招募的能力感到滿意。但我也承認，關鍵技能人才短缺，我們必須非常有競爭力才能獲得這些人才。

I'll highlight the priorities we have. I don't think any of them should surprise anybody. They may look boring with respect to words like stability, safety, quality management. But that is still our focus, and we're going to be relentless about it.

我會重點介紹一下我們的優先事項。我認為這些優先事項應該不會讓任何人感到驚訝。像是穩定性、安全性、品質管理這樣的字眼可能看起來有些枯燥乏味。但這仍然是我們的重點，而且我們會堅持不懈地堅持下去。

This is a very important year as we begin the year and then exit the year where we can predict to customers and to all of you the deliveries of our airplanes and ensure the quality is what it needs to be, et cetera.

這是非常重要的一年，因為我們可以在這一年開始和結束之際向客戶和大家預測我們的飛機交付情況，並確保品質達到要求，等等。

And culturally, our team is getting closer to their work than they've ever been. We feel good about that, and we invest. We're investing heavily in the future capabilities of our company.

從文化角度來看，我們的團隊比以往任何時候都更專注於工作。我們對此感到滿意，並為此投入了大量資金。我們正在大力投資公司未來的發展。

So that's it with respect to my upfront comments. I'll turn it over to Brian. We can go through the quarter's performance and then a little more time for Q&A.

我的開場發言就到這裡。接下來交給Brian。我們可以回顧本季的業績，然後再留一點時間進行問答。

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. 2021 was a year of recovery for our business. We're optimistic about how we're positioned entering 2022 and have high confidence in the long-term strength of the company.

謝謝，戴夫，大家早安。 2021年是我們業務復甦的一年。我們對2022年的前景充滿信心，並對公司的長期實力充滿信心。

We remain focused on solidifying our business for long-term success. The lessons we've learned and the changes we've implemented in the last 2 years will help us to do that. We're driving safety, quality, stability into every corner of our operations to enable future growth. And we made solid progress against our goals over the last 3 months.

我們始終專注於鞏固業務，以取得長期成功。過去兩年的經驗教訓和實施的變革將幫助我們實現這一目標。我們將安全、品質和穩定性貫穿到營運的方方面面，以促進未來的成長。過去三個月，我們在實現目標方面取得了紮實的進展。

In particular, as Dave mentioned, we're proceeding to get 737 MAX airplanes ready to deliver in China as early as the first quarter and follow the lead of our customers and regulators on next steps. On the 787, while we can't predict when deliveries will restart, we have made meaningful strides in addressing many of the nonconformances we identified. We have work remaining to do, and we continue to hold detailed productive discussions with the FAA every step of the way.

特別是，正如戴夫所提到的，我們正著手準備最早於第一季在中國交付737 MAX飛機，並將遵循客戶和監管機構的指示採取後續措施。至於787，雖然我們無法預測何時恢復交付，但我們在解決已發現的許多不合規問題方面已取得重大進展。我們還有一些工作要做，並且我們將繼續與美國聯邦航空管理局（FAA）進行詳細而富有成效的討論，以推進專案的每一步。

Looking to our financials. Despite some of the near-term challenges, we generated positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter and believe free cash flow will continue to materially improve this year and into 2023.

回顧我們的財務狀況。儘管面臨一些短期挑戰，但我們在第四季度實現了正的自由現金流，並相信今年及2023年自由現金流將繼續大幅改善。

With this backdrop, we think of 2022 in 3 parts. First, we'll focus on reaching key milestones so that we can resume 737 deliveries to Chinese customers and restart 787 deliveries. Then once we achieve these important milestones, we expect to see improvement in our performance metrics, including deliveries, revenue, margin and cash flow. And we intend to come back to you with detailed plans for the rest of the year and beyond.

在此背景下，我們將2022年分為三個階段。首先，我們將專注於實現關鍵里程碑，以便恢復向中國客戶交付737，並重啟787的交付。其次，一旦我們實現這些重要里程碑，我們預計業績指標將有所改善，包括交付量、收入、利潤率和現金流。我們計劃稍後與您分享今年剩餘時間及之後的詳細計劃。

Finally, as we move through the second half of the year, our financial performance should start to accelerate. And we think there is a significant opportunity ahead for our company return to sustainable growth. Net net, we're well positioned at the start of the year and encouraged by the hope of a return to normalcy in 2022.

最後，隨著下半年的到來，我們的財務表現應該會開始加速成長。我們認為，公司未來將面臨巨大的機遇，預計將重回永續成長。整體而言，我們在年初就已做好充分準備，並對2022年恢復正常的希望充滿信心。

Before I get into the detailed financial results, I want to make a few points on the current environment on Slide 4. Let's start with the demand side. In the commercial market, we continue to see an overall broadening of the recovery starting with domestic traffic, which rebounded to around 90% of pre-pandemic levels in countries such as the U.S. and Brazil.

在詳細介紹財務表現之前，我想先在投影片4上談幾點當前情勢。首先從需求方面講。在商業市場，我們持續看到整體復甦的擴大，首先是國內客運量，美國和巴西等國的國內客運量已回升至疫情前水準的90%左右。

In the U.S., domestic traffic nearly fully recovered at 94% of pre-COVID levels in November. December data suggests resilient traffic despite the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, but early 2022 bookings data indicate a more visible negative impact likely extending through February. Beyond that, we expect the recovery for the spring and summer seasons.

在美國，11月國內客運量幾乎完全恢復，達到新冠疫情爆發前的94%。 12月份的數據顯示，儘管Omicron變異病毒迅速傳播，但客運量仍保持韌性。但2022年初的預訂數據表明，更明顯的負面影響可能會持續到2月。除此之外，我們預計春夏季節客運量將有所復甦。

Outside of the U.S., the recovery continues broadening in Europe and South America. However, further lockdowns have stagnated recovery in China, where we have seen traffic decrease considerably. Despite some near-term volatility, we're encouraged by airlines' plans for the spring and summer travel seasons.

除美國外，歐洲和南美的復甦勢頭持續擴大。然而，進一步的封鎖措施阻礙了中國的復甦，客流量大幅下降。儘管近期存在一些波動，但我們對各航空公司針對春夏季旅遊季的計劃感到鼓舞。

On the international front, traffic has improved throughout the year from more than 85% below 2019 levels to 60% as the year ended with a meaningful benefit from reopening of borders and lifting of travel restrictions. In particular, the transatlantic corridor showed improvement due to coordinated travel policies between the EU and the U.S.

在國際方面，由於邊境重新開放和旅行限制取消，客流量全年有所改善，從比2019年低85%以上降至60%。尤其值得一提的是，由於歐盟和美國協調旅遊政策，跨大西洋走廊的客流量有所改善。

The commercial freighter market continues to be robust with 2021 cargo traffic 7% above pre-pandemic levels. We saw record freighter demand last year driven by both e-commerce growth and demand for faster, more reliable transport that airfreight can provide. And we're seeing the same steady recovery broadly in our commercial services business as well.

商業貨運市場持續強勁，2021 年貨運量較疫情前高出 7%。去年，受電子商務成長以及對航空貨運更快、更可靠運輸方式的需求所推動，我們的貨運需求創下歷史新高。我們的商業服務業務也普遍呈現穩定復甦的勢頭。

Given this demand recovery, our customers are increasingly focused on their medium-term flight planning and continue to prioritize fleet modernization as an enabler to reduce carbon emissions and increase operating efficiency. New airplanes we deliver will be as much as 25% to 40% more fuel efficient with commensurate reductions in emissions compared to the airplanes they replace. And as oil prices remain high, our customers are keenly aware of these benefits.

鑑於需求復甦，我們的客戶越來越關注中期飛行計劃，並繼續優先考慮機隊現代化，以此來減少碳排放並提高營運效率。我們交付的新飛機的燃油效率將比其替換的飛機高出25%至40%，排放量也將相應減少。由於油價持續高企，我們的客戶非常清楚這些優點。

Overall, our projections for the 3-phase commercial market recovery remain unchanged, and we still assume pass-through traffic will return to 2019 levels in the 2023 to 2024 time frame. We continue to see domestic traffic lead the recovery followed by intra-regional and then long-haul international routes. Long-term fundamentals that support demand for air traffic remain intact as we continue to project average traffic growth of mid-single digits over the long term.

總體而言，我們對商業市場復甦的三個階段的預測保持不變，我們仍然假設直達客流量將在2023年至2024年期間恢復到2019年的水平。我們繼續看到國內客流量引領復甦，其次是區域內客流量，然後是遠程國際航線。支撐航空運輸需求的長期基本面依然完好，我們持續預測長期平均客流量將維持中等個位數成長。

In the defense and space markets, we're seeing stable demand. We continue to monitor the federal budget process in the U.S. and see strong bipartisan support for national security, including Boeing products and services.

在國防和航太市場，我們看到需求穩定。我們持續關注美國聯邦預算進程，並看到兩黨對國家安全（包括波音產品和服務）的大力支持。

While governments around the world remain focused on COVID-19, security spending remains a priority given global threats. On the supply side, with our production at relatively low rates and higher-than-normal inventory levels, the supply chain is currently not a constraint. However, as we look forward to the industry recovering and future production rate increases, our supply chain remains a key watch item due to raw material and labor availability as well as logistical challenges.

儘管世界各國政府仍在集中精力應對新冠疫情，但鑑於全球威脅，安全支出仍是重中之重。在供應方面，由於我們的生產率相對較低且庫存水準高於正常水平，供應鏈目前並未成為限制因素。然而，隨著我們展望行業復甦和未來生產力的提升，由於原材料和勞動力供應以及物流方面的挑戰，我們的供應鏈仍然是關鍵關注點。

We regularly monitor supplier health and have risk mitigation plans in place for critical components. As we prepare for future rate production increases, we will continue to prioritize operational stability across the value stream. Long term, the markets we serve are robust, and we remain confident in the fundamentals of our business and the growth of the industry.

我們定期監測供應商的健康狀況，並針對關鍵零件製定風險緩解計畫。在為未來產能提升做準備的同時，我們將繼續優先考慮整個價值流的營運穩定性。長期來看，我們所服務的市場依然強勁，我們對業務基本面和產業成長依然充滿信心。

With that, let's turn to the financials on Page 5, Slide 5. Fourth quarter revenue of $14.8 billion declined 3%. And the core operating loss in the quarter was $4.5 billion, resulting in a $7.69 loss per share. We generated positive operating cash flow of over $700 million in the fourth quarter driven by 737 deliveries and favorable receipt timing in BDS.

接下來，我們來看看第5頁第5張投影片的財務數據。第四季營收148億美元，下降3%。本季核心營運虧損45億美元，導致每股虧損7.69美元。受737架飛機交付和BDS（波音737系列飛機）良好收貨時機的推動，第四季度我們實現了超過7億美元的正營運現金流。

Let's now look to Commercial Airplanes on Slide 6. Commercial order activity picked up significantly in 2021 as airlines are positioning for the recovery, particularly in the narrow-body and freighter markets. In total for the year, we booked 909 gross Commercial Airplane orders, including 749 orders for the 737 MAX. We also booked a record number of orders on our freighter airplanes, and we ended the year with 11 straight months of positive net orders. We appreciate every order from our broad customer base, including United, Southwest, Alaska, UPS and FedEx. We are also honored that Akasa, Allegiant and 777 partners recently selected Boeing to support their future fleets. We had over 4,200 airplanes in backlog at the end of 2021 valued at $297 billion.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 6 上的商用飛機。隨著航空公司為復甦做準備，尤其是在窄體機和貨機市場，2021 年的商用訂單活動顯著增加。全年我們共收到 909 架商用飛機訂單，其中包括 749 架 737 MAX 訂單。我們的貨機訂單數量也創下了歷史新高，年底我們連續 11 個月實現淨訂單正值。我們感謝來自廣大客戶群的每一份訂單，包括聯合航空、西南航空、阿拉斯加航空、UPS 和聯邦快遞。我們也很榮幸 Akasa、Allegiant 和 777 合作夥伴最近選擇波音來支援他們未來的車隊。截至 2021 年底，我們有超過 4,200 架飛機積壓訂單，價值 2,970 億美元。

Fourth quarter revenue was $4.8 billion, essentially flat, primarily driven by higher 737 deliveries, partially offset by lower wide-body deliveries and less favorable mix. Operating losses of $4.5 billion were primarily driven by charges on the 787 program, resulting in a negative margin rate.

第四季營收為48億美元，基本持平，主要得益於737交付量的增加，但部分被寬體飛機交付量的減少和產品組合的不利影響所抵消。營運虧損45億美元，主要由於787項目的費用，導致利潤率為負。

787 deliveries remain paused, and we had 110 airplanes in inventory at the end of the quarter. As you know, last year, we set out on a comprehensive program to ensure every 787 airplane in our production system conforms to our exacting specifications. We resolved many of the nonconformances, and we're finalizing our work on the remaining items.

787飛機的交付仍處於暫停狀態，截至本季末，我們的庫存飛機數量為110架。如您所知，去年我們制定了一項全面的計劃，以確保我們生產系統中的每一架787飛機都符合我們嚴格的規範。我們已解決了許多不合格問題，剩餘項目也正在收尾工作。

We also continue to focus on fulfilling the requirements and expectations of the FAA. And we'll follow their lead on the timing of resuming deliveries. While this effort has inevitably impacted our deliveries to customers and our near-term financial performance, we are fully confident it is the right thing to do for our future.

我們將繼續致力於滿足美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 的要求和期望。我們將遵循他們的指示，確定恢復交付的時間。雖然這項工作不可避免地影響了我們向客戶的交付量和短期財務業績，但我們完全相信，這對我們的未來發展是正確的選擇。

In the fourth quarter, we determined that the activities required to resume deliveries and the rework that will be needed on each airplane and inventory will take longer than previously expected, resulting in further delays in customer delivery dates. We regret the impact these delays have had on our customers and are working closely with each of them to support their fleet planning needs. Consequently, we're producing at very low rates, and we'll continue to do so until deliveries resume, gradually returning to 5 airplanes per month over time.

在第四季度，我們確定恢復交付所需的活動以及每架飛機和庫存所需的返工將比之前預期的更長，導致客戶交付日期進一步延遲。我們對這些延誤對客戶造成的影響深表歉意，並正在與他們密切合作，以支持他們的機隊規劃需求。因此，我們的生產效率非常低，並將繼續保持這種狀態，直到交付恢復，並逐步恢復到每月5架飛機的產量。

From a financial impact standpoint, we now anticipate 787 abnormal costs will be approximately $2 billion, with most being incurred by the end of 2023. This estimate increased by approximately $1 billion from last quarter due to the additional rework requirements and lower production rates continuing longer than previously expected. We recorded $285 million of these abnormal costs in the fourth quarter.

從財務影響的角度來看，我們目前預計787飛機的異常成本約為20億美元，其中大部分將在2023年底前發生。由於返工需求增加且生產力下降持續時間比先前預期的要長，這項預估較上一季增加了約10億美元。我們在第四季記錄了2.85億美元的此類異常成本。

Additionally, we recorded a $3.5 billion noncash charge in the quarter to write down unamortized deferred production costs, primarily due to estimated customer compensation for the longer delivery delays. It is important to keep in mind that from an economic standpoint, cash margins on the 787 remain positive. While the additional costs and customer considerations will put some downward pressure on cash margins in the near term, cash margins are expected to remain positive and significantly improve over time.

此外，本季我們計入了35億美元的非現金費用，用於沖銷未攤銷的遞延生產成本，這主要源自於預期客戶因較長的交貨延遲而獲得的補償。需要注意的是，從經濟角度來看，787的現金利潤率仍然為正。雖然額外成本和客戶考慮因素將在短期內對現金利潤率造成一些下行壓力，但預計現金利潤率將保持正值，並隨著時間的推移顯著提升。

We remain very confident in the future success of the 787, and it remains one of our most compelling programs. Importantly, none of the issues we're addressing have raised immediate safety or flight concerns or impacted the capabilities of the in-service fleet. We received gross orders for 21 airplanes last year, and we see a long runway ahead. We are working diligently to ensure that we are well positioned as demand recovers and accelerates in the future.

我們對787未來的成功充滿信心，它仍然是我們最引人注目的項目之一。重要的是，我們正在解決的任何問題都沒有引發直接的安全或飛行問題，也沒有影響現役機隊的能力。去年我們獲得了21架飛機的總訂單，我們預計未來還有很長的路要走。我們正在努力確保在未來需求復甦和加速成長時佔據有利地位。

Moving on to the 737 MAX program. The MAX is now approved to fly in over 185 countries. As mentioned, we continue to prepare airplanes for deliveries as early as the first quarter, subject to customer and regulatory approvals in China.

繼續討論 737 MAX 專案。目前，MAX 已獲准在超過 185 個國家飛行。如前所述，我們將繼續準備飛機，最早將於第一季交付，但需獲得中國客戶和監管機構的批准。

We also delivered 245 737 MAX airplanes last year, and we've steadily ramped up production. And we are now producing at 27 airplanes per month on our way to 31 per month early this year.

去年，我們也交付了245架737 MAX飛機，並且穩定提升了產量。目前，我們的月產量為27架，今年初將達到31架。

As you look to ramp both our production rate and delivery gains this year, we will continue to monitor the impact of Omicron on resource availability. We currently have 335 737 MAX airplanes in inventory and still anticipate delivering most of these airplanes by the end of 2023.

鑑於您期望我們今年能夠同時提升生產力和交付量，我們將繼續關注 Omicron 對資源可用性的影響。我們目前擁有 335 架 737 MAX 飛機庫存，預計大部分飛機仍將在 2023 年底前交付。

Timing and pace of deliveries to Chinese customers are also critical assumptions to our delivery outlook. 737 abnormal costs and the liability for 737 MAX customer considerations are largely behind us. We expect the majority of the remaining $2.9 billion liability to be liquidated this year with less than 10% of the total estimate left to be negotiated.

向中國客戶交付飛機的時間和速度也是我們交付前景的關鍵假設。 737 異常成本和 737 MAX 客戶負債的考量已基本消除。我們預計剩餘 29 億美元負債的大部分將在今年清償，剩餘不到 10% 的預估總額有待協商。

On the 777X, we continue to progress through our rigorous and comprehensive test program. We have flown over 1,800 flight hours through the end of 2021. We also completed engine and airplane performance testing, and the airplane continues to perform in line with our customer commitments. Our customers recognize the compelling economics and sustainability benefits this airplane offers.

在777X上，我們繼續推進嚴格而全面的測試項目。截至2021年底，我們已飛行超過1800小時。我們還完成了發動機和飛機性能測試，該飛機繼續履行我們對客戶的承諾。我們的客戶認可這款飛機帶來的顯著經濟性和可持續性效益。

We remain engaged with the FAA and other global regulators throughout this process. We're working towards reaching type inspection authorization, or TIA, which is a pacing item for us to begin FAA certification flight testing. We are still anticipating delivery of the first airplane in late 2023.

在整個過程中，我們一直與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 和其他全球監管機構保持溝通。我們正在努力獲得型號檢驗授權 (TIA)，這是我們啟動 FAA 認證飛行測試的重要工作。我們仍預計 2023 年底交付首架飛機。

Also, we are currently offering the freighter version of our 777X airplane to customers. And we'll keep you updated as we progress on sales campaigns and conclude our launch timing evaluation. As a result of increasing freighter demand, we plan to increase the combined 777, 777X production rate from 2 to 3 per month this year and expect 2022 deliveries to be relatively in line with last year.

此外，我們目前正在向客戶提供777X貨機版本。我們將隨時向您通報銷售活動的進度以及對上市時間的評估結果。由於貨機需求不斷增長，我們計劃今年將777和777X的合計生產率從每月2架提高到3架，並預計2022年的交付量將與去年基本持平。

Let's now move to Defense, Space & Security on Slide 7. Fourth quarter revenue was $5.9 billion, down 14%, and operating margin was negative 4.4%. These results were primarily driven by lower volume and less favorable performance across the portfolio, including a $402 million pretax charge on the KC-46 Tanker program. The charge is primarily driven by evolving customer requirements for a remote vision system as well as factory and supply chain disruptions, including the impact of COVID.

現在我們來看看幻燈片7上的國防、太空與安全業務。第四季營收59億美元，下降14%，營業利益率為-4.4%。這項業績主要受銷售下降和整個產品組合業績不佳的影響，其中包括KC-46加油機專案4.02億美元的稅前費用。這筆費用主要源自於客戶對遠端視覺系統不斷變化的需求，以及工廠和供應鏈中斷，包括新冠疫情的影響。

On the commercial crew program, as previously shared, we and NASA anticipate the second uncrewed orbital flight test to occur in May. We received $7 billion in orders during the quarter, including an award for modernization of Airborne Warning and Control System to Royal Saudi Air Force.

關於商業載人航太計劃，正如之前所述，我們和NASA預計將於5月進行第二次無人軌道飛行測試。本季我們收到了70億美元的訂單，其中包括授予沙烏地阿拉伯皇家空軍的機載預警和控制系統現代化合約。

The BDS backlog increased to $60 billion. During the quarter, BDS also delivered on critical customer milestones. Overall, we remain optimistic about our defense business.

BDS的訂單積壓增加至600億美元。本季度，BDS也實現了關鍵的客戶里程碑。整體而言，我們對國防業務保持樂觀。

Now let's turn to Global Services results on Slide 8. Fourth quarter Global Services revenue was $4.3 billion, up 15%, and operating margin was 9.3%. Results were driven by higher commercial services volume and favorable mix.

現在我們來看看幻燈片8上的全球服務表現。第四季全球服務營收43億美元，成長15%，營業利益率為9.3%。業績成長得益於商業服務量的增加和良好的產品組合。

Earnings were impacted by a $220 million inventory impairment in the fourth quarter. We received $6 billion in orders during the quarter, taking the BGS backlog to $20 billion. We also delivered the 50th 767-300 converted freighter and announced plans to add 10 new converted freighter lines.

第四季度，2.2億美元的庫存減損對獲利產生了影響。本季度，我們獲得了60億美元的訂單，使BGS的訂單積壓額達到200億美元。我們也交付了第50架767-300改裝貨機，並宣布計畫新增10條改裝貨機航線。

Our services business has shown great resilience in part due to the balance of both defense and commercial offerings.

我們的服務業務展現了強大的彈性，部分原因是由於國防和商業產品的平衡。

Let's move to Slide 9 and cover the full year financials. Full year revenue of $62.3 billion improved 7% versus prior year. The core operating loss was negative $4.1 billion, an improvement of $10.1 billion. The resulting core loss per share was $9.44 primarily driven by the charge on the 787.

我們來看第9張投影片，看看全年財務狀況。全年營收623億美元，較上年成長7%。核心營運虧損為負41億美元，較前一年改善了101億美元。每股核心虧損9.44美元，主要受787項目的影響。

Operating cash flow was negative $3.4 billion, an improvement of $15 billion. The end-year cash usage was driven by 787 inventory build, 737 customer considerations and interest payments, partially offset by commercial deliveries, order activity, favorable timing of cash receipts at BDS and tax refunds related to the CARES Act.

營運現金流為負34億美元，年增150億美元。年末現金使用量主要受787庫存增加、737客戶對價及利息支出推動，但部分被商業交付、訂單活動、BDS現金收款時機有利以及與《關懷法案》相關的退稅所抵消。

Now let's turn to Slide 10 to cover cash and debt. We ended the fourth quarter with strong liquidity, comprised of $16.2 billion of cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet and access to $14.7 billion across our bank credit facilities, which remain undrawn.

現在我們來看第10張投影片，介紹現金和債務。第四季末，我們擁有強勁的流動性，包括資產負債表上的162億美元現金和有價證券，以及147億美元的銀行信貸額度，這些信貸額度尚未提取。

Our debt balance decreased by $4.3 billion from the end of the third quarter to $58.1 billion driven by the early paydown of the delayed draw term loan. We remain committed to reducing debt levels, and our investment-grade credit rating is a priority.

我們的債務餘額較第三季末減少了43億美元，降至581億美元，這得益於提前償還延期提取的定期貸款。我們將繼續致力於降低債務水平，並將投資級信用評級作為優先事項。

Please turn to the next slide for a look at 2022 and key drivers of the business. As you look ahead, 2022 performance will be driven by the commercial market recovery, return to delivery for the 787 and 737 MAX in China, production system and delivery stability and U.S.-China trade relations.

請翻到下一張投影片，了解2022年的業績展望及關鍵業務驅動因素。展望未來，2022年的業績將受到以下因素的驅動：民航市場復甦、中國恢復787和737 MAX的交付、生產體系和交付的穩定性以及中美貿易關係。

Our efforts to stabilize our production system, including the supply chain and improve our delivery predictability, remain top priorities. These activities will be paramount to our success.

我們致力於穩定包括供應鏈在內的生產體系，並提高交付的可預測性，這仍然是我們的首要任務。這些措施對我們的成功至關重要。

Looking broadly across our enterprise, we're maintaining, in some cases expanding key investments in our people, technology, manufacturing capabilities and strategic partnerships.

從整個企業來看，我們維持、在某些情況下擴大了對人員、技術、製造能力和策略夥伴關係的關鍵投資。

We're advancing our development of the MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777X programs, all while continuing to invest in digital capabilities to support our next commercial airplane program. In BDS, we're progressing on the MQ-25, T-7A, Commercial Crew and several other key development programs. As we invest, we continue to be laser-focused on our business transformation efforts to drive quality, productivity and cash flow.

我們正在推動 MAX 7、MAX 10 和 777X 專案的開發，同時繼續投資數位化能力，以支援我們的下一個商用飛機專案。在 BDS 領域，我們正在推進 MQ-25、T-7A、商用機組人員和其他幾個關鍵開發項目。在投資的同時，我們將繼續專注於業務轉型，以提高品質、生產力和現金流。

Now let's take a look at the key drivers of 2022 revenue and cash. We anticipate revenue increase primarily driven by higher commercial airplane deliveries on the 737 and 787 programs. That said, revenue will be impacted by 787 customer considerations and delivering 737 airplanes that were previously remarketed. We are forecasting stable revenue in our defense business and solid growth in our services business as the commercial market continues to improve.

現在，讓我們來看看2022年營收和現金流的關鍵驅動因素。我們預計收入成長主要得益於737和787項目商用飛機交付量的增加。然而，787的客戶考量以及先前重新上市的737飛機的交付將對收入產生影響。隨著商用飛機市場的持續改善，我們預測國防業務的收入將保持穩定，服務業務的收入也將穩定成長。

Moving to cash. We still expect to generate positive free cash flow in the year. The key driver remains higher 737 and 787 delivery volume. Keep in mind, the working capital benefit from delivering airplanes from inventory will be partially offset by a lower advances in progress payments balance. We still anticipate a significant burn down of our advances balance this year, which we expect to be more front-end loaded in line with customer discussions.

轉向現金。我們仍然預計今年將產生正的自由現金流。關鍵驅動力仍然是737和787交付量的增加。需要注意的是，交付庫存飛機帶來的營運資金收益將被進度款預付款餘額的減少部分抵銷。我們仍然預計今年預付款餘額將大幅減少，預計會根據客戶討論結果，更多地以先到先得的方式支付。

Additionally, cash flow will remain impacted by timing of receipts and expenditures. As you may recall, we booked orders last year that filled near-term skyline positions, and those unique receipts may not continue at the same levels this year.

此外，現金流仍將受到收支時間的影響。您可能還記得，我們​​去年的訂單填補了近期Skyline的空缺，而這些獨特的收入今年可能不會保持相同的水平。

From a phasing standpoint, we anticipate the first quarter to be our lowest quarter of the year for deliveries, revenue, earnings and cash flow. First quarter cash flow could look similar to the usage we saw in 1Q '21 driven by unfavorable receipt timing, excess advance payment burn-down, resource availability due to the Omicron variant and normal seasonality. We remain confident that our free cash flow will improve in the second quarter and will meaningfully accelerate in the back half of the year as we achieve the key delivery milestones that I previously outlined.

從階段性角度來看，我們預計第一季將是全年交付量、收入、利潤和現金流量最低的季度。第一季的現金流量可能與2021年第一季的使用情況類似，這主要受收貨時機不佳、預付款消耗過量、Omicron變體導致的資源可用性以及正常的季節性因素影響。我們仍然相信，隨著我們實現我之前概述的關鍵交付里程碑，我們的自由現金流將在第二季度改善，並在下半年顯著加速成長。

As you look to the future, we expect 2023 cash flow will be materially higher than 2022. We look forward to sharing more details on our plan as soon as we can.

展望未來，我們預期 2023 年的現金流量將大幅高於 2022 年。我們期待盡快分享有關我們計劃的更多細節。

In closing, the business environment remains dynamic, but we've made important progress. We are confident that we're on the right path, we're taking the right steps to drive stability and making the right investments to ensure the business is well positioned for future growth.

最後，商業環境依然充滿活力，但我們取得了重要進展。我們堅信，我們正走在正確的道路上，正在採取正確的措施來推動穩定，並進行正確的投資，以確保業務在未來的成長中佔據有利地位。

With that, closing comments?

就這樣，結束語？

Yes, no further comments. I'd like to turn it over to questions and give all our time to that. Thanks.

是的，沒有其他評論了。我想把時間留給大家提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

So maybe can you help us understand the $3.5 billion of charges tied to the 787 in addition to the abnormal cost of $2 billion through 2023? That's up $1 billion from Q3 as you mentioned, Brian. What does this imply for the future profit and cash tied to the 787 program? How do we think about those deliveries going back up to 5? And then timing of those deliveries restarting because some of your customers have talked about an April time frame.

那麼，除了到2023年20億美元的異常成本外，您能否解釋一下與787相關的35億美元費用？正如您所提到的，布萊恩，這比第三季增加了10億美元。這對787項目未來的利潤和現金流意味著什麼？我們如何看待交付量回升到5架？然後，由於您的一些客戶提到了4月份的交貨時間，因此重新開始交付的時間安排如何？

Thanks, Sheila. So on the 787 $3.5 billion, we previously described a pretty labor-intensive rework solution on the door surrounds. And in the quarter, we determined that this rework was going to be needed to be formed on all of the airplanes inventory. So the abnormal is $1 billion higher and will mostly go through 2023 because of this higher rework cost and the production rates being lower for longer.

謝謝，希拉。關於787 35億美元的成本，我們先前描述了一種對門框進行返工的解決方案，該方案耗費大量人力。在本季度，我們確定所有庫存飛機都需要進行返工。因此，由於返工成本較高且生產力長期較低，因此異常成本將增加10億美元，且大部分將持續到2023年。

This, in turn, has our delivery slide to the right. So more airplanes will be impacted, not just the ones in inventory. And we provided for estimated customer concessions because of these delays, which drove the $3.5 billion charge. While this hurts in the near term, we still believe it's the right thing to do because, long term, we're going to sell a lot of these 787s for decades. So we just got to work our way through this.

這反過來又導致我們的交貨量下滑。因此，受影響的飛機將更多，而不僅僅是庫存飛機。由於這些延誤，我們已計入預計的客戶讓步，這導致了35億美元的費用。雖然短期內這會造成損失，但我們仍然認為這是正確的做法，因為從長遠來看，我們將在未來幾十年內銷售大量787飛機。所以我們必須努力解決這個問題。

In terms of getting back to 5, so we got to first get cleared to deliver, and then we're going to gradually work our way to a point we're going to get back up to 5. We don't have the time frame, but we think that the first step is getting the first one out the door.

就恢復到 5 個而言，我們必須先獲得交付許可，然後我們將逐步努力，直到恢復到 5 個。我們沒有時間框架，但我們認為第一步是讓第一個出門。

On the April time frame, Dave, maybe you could comment on the customer implications on that one.

戴夫，在四月份的時間範圍內，也許你可以評論這對客戶的影響。

Well, the April time frame is all I'll say is the customers know everything that we do. The -- we share the same regulator. They are in our factories looking at the airplanes every day. So they know exactly what's going on and where it is.

嗯，四月這個時間框架，我只想說，客戶知道我們所做的一切。我們共用同一個監管機構。他們每天都在我們的工廠檢查飛機。所以他們確切地知道發生了什麼，以及飛機在哪裡。

I don't want to get ahead of anybody with respect to speculating the day we pick it. That's up to the FAA, and we're going to let them do what they have to do. Otherwise, I think Brian described this charge exactly the way it is.

我不想搶在任何人之前猜測我們何時會做出決定。這取決於聯邦航空管理局，我們會讓他們做他們該做的事情。否則，我認為布萊恩對這項指控的描述就完全正確了。

Next, we'll go to Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

接下來，我們將和 Cowen 一起前往 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So maybe to follow up on Sheila's question. Of the $3.5 billion you mentioned that's noncash, how much of it turns into cash? How much of it is the abnormal -- the $1 billion increase? And how much of it is customer considerations? And when do you expect those to be paid out?

是的。所以也許可以繼續回答Sheila的問題。您提到的35億美元非現金中，有多少變成了現金？其中有多少是異常的──也就是10億美元的成長？有多少是客戶補償？您預計這些款項什麼時候會支付？

Yes. Sure, Cai. So the $1 billion increase on the abnormal is separate from the $3.5 billion. And in terms of the $3.5 billion, that will play out over a longer period of time, particularly as we have discussions with customers. Some of that might be accelerated in the near term. But overall, it's going to take us time for that cash flow to go out. It will take years.

是的，蔡先生，當然。所以，10億美元的異常成長和35億美元是分開的。至於35億美元，這部分成長將在更長的一段時間內顯現出來，尤其是在我們與客戶溝通的情況下。其中一些增長可能會在短期內加速。但總的來說，我們需要一些時間才能把這筆現金流用完，可能要花幾年時間。

In terms of how much is customer concessions, we're not going to talk about all of the pieces. Trust that as we closed the quarter, we took all the estimates in terms of what we think was going to happen both for contractual and noncontractual concessions. And it's embedded into our closing position. And we feel good about that, and now we just have to work through with our customers to -- and then start delivering.

至於客戶優惠的具體金額，我們不會全部透露。相信在季度末，我們已經對所有合約和非合約優惠的預期進行了估算。這些都已納入我們的收盤價中。我們對此感到滿意，現在我們只需與客戶溝通，然後開始交付。

In terms of the abnormal, again, that cash flow will likely go out over the next 2 years as most of that will be behind us as we get out of 2023.

就異常情況而言，現金流可能在未來兩年內耗盡，因為隨著 2023 年的過去，大部分現金流將會消失。

The only other context is that unlike in the case of the MAX, we do have an experience, unfortunately, that we can draw from in setting these estimates, and most importantly, the management of the concessions with our customers over time. So what we've posted and the way we think about it is largely based on that historical experience, of course, with the MAX. So I feel like we've probably bounded it pretty reasonably.

唯一的其他背景是，與 737 MAX 的情況不同，遺憾的是，我們確實有經驗可以藉鑑，可以用於制定這些估算，最重要的是，可以藉鑑我們長期以來與客戶達成的優惠管理經驗。因此，我們發布的內容以及我們對此的思考方式很大程度上是基於 737 MAX 的歷史經驗。所以我覺得我們可能已經相當合理地設定了界線。

Our next question is from Myles Walton with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Myles Walton。

On the 37 MAX given the lead times in the supply chain, I know that you're evaluating the timing of further increases, but can you get much above 31 a month before the end of the year if you haven't made that decision yet? And obviously, suppliers are thinking that you're looking to the 40 level as you leave '22, maybe a little clarification there.

關於37 MAX，考慮到供應鏈的交付週期，我知道您正在評估進一步上調的時機。但如果您還沒有做出決定，您能在年底前每月將產量提高到31架以上嗎？顯然，供應商認為您在2022年底前會將產量提高到40架，或許可以稍微澄清一下。

I'll leave the supplier and the increase to Dave. I want to take the near-term production delivery MAX question head-on because it's largely unchanged from where we were last quarter as what we expect to happen in 2022. We've got 335 units of inventory. And that will liquidate through the year at a quarterly rate that is pretty similar to what we did last quarter. And then the production ramp, as you know, Myles, is going to go from 26 to 31 fairly soon. So we all think that's going to play out. And again, it's similar to what we had thought last quarter.

供應商和產量成長的問題就留給戴夫來處理。我想直接回答近期產量交付量上限的問題，因為它與上個季度相比基本上沒有變化，我們預計2022年產量交付量也會如此。我們目前有335個單位的庫存，這些庫存將在全年以與上個季度相當的速度進行清算。然後，正如邁爾斯所說，產量提升很快就會從26個單位增加到31個單位。我們都認為這種情況會很快發生。這與我們上個季度的預期類似。

The one watch item that we have in the first quarter is any disruption on Omicron that might have a bit of a slower start, but we'll work our way through that. The total profile is largely unchanged. And we're quite confident in the demand. And maybe in terms of further rate increase supply chain, I'll let Dave comment on that.

我們第一季唯一需要關注的是Omicron的產能中斷，雖然初期可能會稍微慢一些，但我們會努力解決這個問題。整體情況基本沒有變化。我們對需求非常有信心。至於供應鏈是否會進一步加價，我請Dave來評論一下。

Well, just the prognosis that we can move it up and based on what everybody seems to want to believe, we are going to be very aggressive with our supply chain to get buffers at every corner so that we can do it. And then the question is, do we do it?

嗯，只是預測我們可以提前生產，而且根據大家似乎都願意相信的情況，我們將非常積極地加強供應鏈，在每個環節都留出緩衝空間，以便我們能夠做到這一點。那麼問題是，我們真的能做到嗎？

So right now, we have fewer supply constraints probably than the industry simply because we've got this big finished goods inventory that's going to carry us for the better part of the calendar year and then even a little bit into next year. So we'll take advantage of that, and then we'll ask the supply chain to build buffer both on our premise and in theirs to protect upside. That's the way we're thinking about it.

所以目前，我們的供應限制可能比行業內其他公司要少，因為我們有大量的成品庫存，足以支撐我們度過今年大部分時間，甚至到明年。我們會利用這一點，然後要求供應鏈在我們和他們的工廠建立緩衝，以保護利潤。這就是我們的想法。

Can you talk about that next release, the next uptick this quarter?

能談談下一個版本，本季的下一個上升趨勢嗎？

Can I talk about the next...

我可以談談下一個嗎...

So going to 31?

那麼要去 31 嗎？

Above 31. You announced that -- is that a 1Q decision basically? I know the company is evaluating further increasing.

31 以上。您宣布了——這基本上是第一季的決定嗎？我知道公司正在評估進一步加薪。

Yes. No, no. I would say no, it's not a 1Q decision for us. As I said, we will work our supply chain and work with our supply chain transparently to protect upside on rate as we get to the second half of the year, et cetera. And the minute we are ready to do it, we'll do it. But I don't want to get ahead of myself on that front. It's certainly not now.

是的。不，不。我會說不是，這不是我們第一季就能做出的決定。正如我所說，我們將以透明的方式與我們的供應鏈合作，以確保下半年等時期的利率上漲空間。一旦我們準備好了，我們就會這麼做。但我不想在這方面操之過急。現在肯定不行。

Our next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Just going back to 787 timing, so I just want to make sure I have this correct. So American Airlines is up to speed. It's an estimate, but their estimate isn't missing an update from you that they said last week that there's been nothing new for them in the last few months. So today's updates from you are marking to market additional rework, future concessions as you've determined them over the last few months as opposed to an additional timing delay for them to start.

回到787的時間安排，我只是想確保我的數據準確無誤。美國航空已經掌握了最新情況。這只是一個估算，但他們的估算並沒有錯過您上週的更新，他們上週表示過去幾個月沒有任何新進展。所以，您今天的更新是根據過去幾個月確定的額外返工和未來優惠來計算的，而不是根據他們開始的時間額外延遲來計算的。

Yes, I agree with what you just said.

是的，我同意你剛才所說的。

Okay. And then, Dave, can you maybe just get a little more specific in what is left to do? It sounds like you were kind of iterating back and forth on inspection and rework, but that you've agreed to that. So what's actually left to do to resume deliveries?

好的。那麼，戴夫，您能否更具體一點，說明還有哪些工作要做？聽起來您之前一直在反覆檢查和返工，但您已經同意了。那麼，為了恢復交付，您實際上還剩下哪些工作要做呢？

Well, so we'll have to complete the rework on a large fleet of airplanes. So that in and of itself is -- takes some time to do. But then we have to update every analytics that we provide to our regulator based on every next rework, so to just again, corroborate the case that we have with respect to conformance. So you have a lag in that. You collect that data, you include it in the analytic. And then when it gets to be sufficient, you will provide it to the FAA, and then there's a work -- you work through it with them.

嗯，我們必須完成對大量飛機的返工。這本身就需要一些時間。之後，我們必須根據每次返工更新我們提供給監管機構的每份分析數據，以便再次確認我們關於合規性的情況。所以這其中存在滯後。你收集這些數據，並將其納入分析。當數據足夠充分時，你再將其提供給美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA)，然後與他們一起完成這項工作。

But that is the sort of the process that we have to go through. And there's no way to shortcut it. And I can't collect data on the airplanes I haven't reworked yet. I have to get through it. I've got to simply work my way through that.

但這就是我們必須經歷的過程。沒有捷徑。而且我無法收集尚未返工的飛機的數據。我必須完成這個過程。我必須想辦法完成它。

I have confidence in the rework programs. We have no new discoveries with respect to how we do the rework, and they're getting perfected. Just like in the case of standard work in building an airplane the first time, we have to do sort of the same thing with rework processes. And that's what we're doing. So I wish it could go faster, and I can't accelerate it. I need them all to take their time and go through their learning curves and post the data to the analysis.

我對返工程序很有信心。我們在返工方法上沒有什麼新發現，而且它們正在不斷改進。就像第一次製造飛機時的標準作業一樣，返工流程也需要做類似的事情。這就是我們正在做的。所以我希望它能進展得更快，但我無法加速它。我需要他們所有人慢慢來，完成他們的學習曲線，並將數據提交到分析中。

Why can't you deliver a new one clean off the line that doesn't have any of the historical errors as opposed to waiting to rework what's already built?

為什麼不能交付一個沒有任何歷史錯誤的新產品，而是等待重新製作已經建成的產品？

Yes. Well, there's a -- again, I'm not going to speak for my regulator because that's up to them on how we do it and maybe that's how things end up working. On the other hand, they are going to ticket that airplane, and they're going to want to know everything there is to know about everything. And we're still posting data with respect to what we find in our fleet. So I don't know what more to say. I wish it was perfectly predictable. It's just not.

是的。嗯，還有一點——再說一次，我不會代表我的監管機構發言，因為我們怎麼做取決於他們，也許最終情況就是這樣。另一方面，他們會給那架飛機開機票，他們想知道所有關於所有事情的資訊。而且我們仍在發布機隊中發現的問題數據。所以我不知道還能說什麼。我希望它是完全可預測的。但事實並非如此。

Our next question is from David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的戴維‧史特勞斯。

Dave, in terms of MAX deliveries, can you give us kind of an estimate of what we should think about for actual deliveries in 2022 given the rate and given the inventory liquidation you're talking about?

戴夫，就 MAX 交付而言，考慮到交付率和您所說的庫存清算情況，您能否給我們一個估計，我們應該考慮 2022 年的實際交付量是多少？

And then, Brian, a follow-up on free cash flow just given what you're implying for the Q1 burn at like $4 billion to $5 billion, seems like a long putt to get to free cash flow positive for the full year. I mean are we talking about closer to low single-digit billions and mid-single-digit billions in terms of positive free cash flow?

然後，Brian，關於自由現金流的後續問題，鑑於您暗示第一季的資金消耗在40億到50億美元之間，全年實現自由現金流為正似乎還有很長的路要走。我的意思是，就正自由現金流而言，我們談論的是接近低個位數十億美元或中個位數十億美元的水平嗎？

Yes. So in terms of the free cash flow, it's really going to be driven by 3 specific things. There is seasonality like every first quarter. There's going to be BDS favorability that doesn't repeat, and there's going to be some assumption on excess burn down. But I think that we have a handle around all that. And we do think it is in and out of the first quarter, and the second quarter does get favorable. In terms of -- I don't think it's going to be quite as high as the number you are throwing around, but it is going to be in the small billions.

是的。就自由現金流而言，它實際上將受到三個具體因素的驅動。像每個第一季一樣，存在季節性因素。 BDS 的有利因素不會重複出現，並且會有一些關於超額消耗的假設。但我認為我們已經掌握了所有這些因素。我們確實認為第一季的自由現金流時好時壞，而第二季的自由現金流確實會比較好。就自由現金流而言——我認為它不會像你所說的那麼高，但應該在幾十億美元左右。

In terms of the -- your question on MAX deliveries. So I go back to where we were last quarter, and we kind of had a ballpark of what that would look like. That hasn't changed. And again, if we continue to liquidate the inventory at about the rate that we did last quarter, and you then have your production ramp go from 26 to 31, that kind of gets us to a spot where we have a pretty good profile of what that's going to look like through the year with the one caveat is that the first quarter is probably going to be a little slow. One, because it usually is; and two, because we, like others, are wrestling with this Omicron.

關於您提到的MAX交付量問題。我回顧一下上個季度的情況，當時我們對交付量大概有個大概的了解。這一點沒有改變。再說一次，如果我們繼續以大約上個季度的速度清理庫存，然後產量從26台增加到31台，那麼我們就能很好地預測全年的交付量。但需要注意的是，第一季的交付量可能會略有下降。一來，通常情況如此；二來，我們也像其他人一樣，正在努力應對Omicron的產能問題。

Somewhere around 500 deliveries, is that what we're looking at?

大約有 500 次交付，這就是我們所看到的嗎？

Ballpark seems pretty good.

球場看起來相當不錯。

Next, we'll go to the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們來談談摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Okay. I guess it seems a little bit of a shame to ask the question about the next aircraft because there's -- I know there's a lot of more imminent stuff for the company, but you did discuss it, Dave. And so when you think about that, just maybe your updated thoughts because you did mention the work that you're doing there.

好的。我想問關於下一代飛機的問題似乎有點不好意思，因為——我知道公司還有很多迫在眉睫的事情，但戴夫，你確實討論過這個問題。所以，當你想到這一點時，也許你的想法已經更新了，因為你確實提到了你在那裡所做的工作。

And I also asked the question in light of the success that Airbus had this past quarter with some of -- with some 737 customers. Any evolution in your thinking, number one, about market share? And number two, about the -- about where the value comes from in the aircraft? Because I think you've said in the past that it's going to come from Boeing and not the propulsion system. And that suggests a pretty big investment for Boeing. And so maybe Brian can also chime in on thinking about how the balance sheet plays into that.

鑑於空中巴士上季在737系列飛機上的成功，我提出這個問題也是為了說明這一點。首先，關於市場份額，您的想法有什麼改變嗎？其次，關於飛機的價值來自哪裡？我記得您之前說過，價值將來自波音，而不是推進系統。這意味著波音的投資規模相當大。所以，布萊恩或許也可以談談資產負債表對這方面的影響。

Yes, Seth, I appreciate the question. We are, as you know, have a reasonably full pipeline with respect to airplane developments with the MAX derivatives and the 777X, which I -- again, I will highlight as a true differentiator in the marketplace as it displaces not just the 47, but also 380 over time. And anyway, so I feel good about that.

是的，塞斯，我很感謝你的提問。如你所知，我們在飛機研發上擁有相當完善的管道，包括 777 MAX 衍生機型和 777X。我再次強調，777X 是市場上真正的差異化優勢，因為它不僅取代 47，而且隨著時間的推移，還會取代 380。總之，我對此感到很滿意。

And if we're fortunate and we get customers interested in a freighter version of it, we will move aggressively along those lines. So we have a pretty good product family and development pipeline ahead of us. I just don't think that should be lost on anyone.

如果我們運氣好，客戶對貨機版感興趣，我們就會積極地推進這個方向。所以我們有相當不錯的產品系列和開發管道。我認為這一點不容忽視。

And then secondly, the much longer term and much bigger program for me is the one we refer to as our IPT, integrated product team, where we're going to revamp the development process itself. And anyone who's been around our industry for a long period of time knows that the big variables in our financial performance over time usually relate to shortfalls in the development process.

其次，對我來說，一個更長期、更宏大的項目是我們稱為IPT（整合產品團隊）的項目，我們將在這個項目中改進開發流程本身。任何長期從事這個行業的人都知道，我們財務表現中長期存在的重大變數通常與開發流程中的不足有關。

And my intent and my hope in light of all the new tools that are available to us, both in terms of digital modeling on the original design. But then also being able to use that same modeling to perfect manufacturing processes at scale and ultimately serviceability, that is where the action is. That is where the next airplane is going to differentiate itself more than any other, in my opinion.

我的意圖和希望在於，我們擁有所有可用的新工具，不僅包括對原始設計進行數位建模，而且還能利用相同的建模來完善大規模製造流程，並最終提高可維護性，這就是行動的關鍵所在。在我看來，這正是下一代飛機與其他飛機最大的差別。

So we are invested and continue to stay invested. We've allocated much of our top talent across the company to that effort. I can't wait to update everybody on, again, that progress. It won't be as exciting because it doesn't fly away, but it is, in my opinion, the most important thing that we can do, and we remain totally focused on that.

所以，我們一直在投入，並且會繼續投入。我們已將公司大部分頂尖人才投入這項工作。我迫不及待地想再次向大家報告進度。雖然它不會那麼令人興奮，因為它不會飛走，但在我看來，這是我們能做的最重要的事情，我們會全力以赴。

With respect to the competitiveness of our product portfolio, I still feel very good about it. I never will look at any last deal and suggest that we're losing to this -- losing to somebody or not. You have to take the totality of the last couple of years.

就我們產品組合的競爭力而言，我仍然感到非常滿意。我永遠不會因為任何一筆交易就認為我們正在輸給這筆交易——無論輸給誰。你必須把過去幾年的整體狀況都考慮進去。

They have airplanes that absolutely outperform us in certain applications, and we have some that outperform them in applications. And our customers are really good in discerning the differences and making their choices.

他們的飛機在某些應用領域絕對勝過我們，而我們的飛機在某些應用領域也勝過他們。我們的客戶非常善於辨別差異並做出選擇。

So I apologize, I'm sure I sound like a broken record, but we think we have our priorities right here. There will be a next airplane. As I did say and I will acknowledge, I don't think the propulsion system is going to add as much value to that next airplane, either ours or theirs, as it has historically, which means that the airframer has to add more value to it in order to make it a compelling sale to our customers.

所以，我很抱歉，我肯定聽起來像是在重複老生常談，但我們認為我們現在有自己的優先事項。我們會有下一架飛機。正如我之前所說，我承認，我認為推進系統不會像以往那樣為下一架飛機（無論是我們的還是他們的）增加那麼多價值，這意味著飛機製造商必須為其增加更多價值，才能讓它對我們的客戶具有吸引力。

I look forward to that moment anyway. So we're doing our very best to get ready for it.

無論如何，我都期待著那一刻的到來。所以我們正在盡最大努力做好準備。

And on the balance sheet side of it, for us, over time, one priority is to take leverage down, but also a priority is to make sure we're going to be ready to invest in that next airplane at the right moment. And we do various scenario plannings, and we think we've got options and things to make all that happen. But again, that's a little bit of a longer look, but nothing would suggest we wouldn't want to be investors for the right airplane.

從資產負債表的角度來看，隨著時間的推移，我們的首要任務是降低槓桿率，但同時也要確保我們能夠在適當的時機投資下一架飛機。我們會進行各種情境規劃，並認為我們擁有實現所有目標的選項和措施。不過，這需要更長遠的考慮，但這並不代表我們不想投資合適的飛機。

Next, we'll go to Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

接下來，我們來談談美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Just maybe following up on that previous question. When you look at the market share dynamic in the narrow-body market and the charges that have been taken on 78 and 73 and 27 and tanker and MQ-25, why was this the right time to put $0.5 billion into Wisk?

也許只是想繼續之前的問題。考慮到窄體飛機市場的份額動態，以及78、73、27、加油機和MQ-25的收費，為什麼現在是向Wisk投資5億美元的最佳時機？

Ron, I appreciate the question. This is definitely the right time to put $0.5 billion into Wisk. Number one, it's a very innovative product and a very innovative product team. I didn't create it, our partners did at Kitty Hawk. I couldn't be prouder of the work they're doing.

羅恩，我很感謝你的提問。現在絕對是向 Wisk 投資 5 億美元的最佳時機。首先，這是一款非常創新的產品，我們的產品團隊也非常有創新精神。它不是我創造的，而是我們在 Kitty Hawk 的合作夥伴創造的。我為他們所做的工作感到無比自豪。

The world wants autonomy, and the world wants electric. And this is going to be our application of those 2 technologies and to put it into real service by way of certification. So everything about this program we like, technically innovative, and it will serve a niche we don't serve today. And that's really not necessarily why you do it if you don't think there's a long-term avenue for both autonomy and electric, and a lot to learn in the process.

世界渴望自動駕駛，世界渴望電動化。這將是我們對這兩項技術的應用，並透過認證將其投入實際服務。所以，我們喜歡這個項目的一切，技術上的創新，它將服務於我們目前尚未涉足的細分市場。如果你認為自動駕駛和電動化沒有長遠的發展前景，並且在這個過程中有很多東西需要學習，那麼這不一定是你參與這個計畫的原因。

So again, I view this as a high priority. It does not compete for the discussion we just had with respect to the next large commercial airplane by way of financial resources. We'll have plenty of financial resources and wherewithal to be able to do both and then some. But I am enthusiastic about our Wisk investment in the airplane and the experience to date. It's incredibly innovative.

所以，我再次強調，我認為這是當務之急。它不會在財務資源方面與我們剛剛討論的下一代大型商用飛機競爭。我們擁有充足的財務資源和資金，能夠同時完成這兩項工作，甚至更多。我對Wisk對這架飛機的投資以及迄今為止的體驗充滿熱情。它極具創新性。

And Ron, one thing to note. So we've made this commitment to the investors, but that cash is going to happen over time. And it's capped at any given quarter. So we're not really going to see it disrupt anything in the near term.

榮恩，有一點要注意。我們已經向投資者做出了承諾，但這筆現金會分階段到位。而且每季都有上限。所以短期內我們不會真正看到它擾亂任何事。

Got it. Got it. And Dave, do you see that the autonomous technology that's being developed there potentially with an application on one of your larger products?

明白了。明白了。戴夫，你認為你們正在開發的自動駕駛技術有可能應用在你們的某個大型產品上嗎？

There's a lot to be learned and applied, yes.

是的，有很多東西需要學習和應用。

Next question is from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Doug Harned。

Dave, you've talked a lot about China and how important it is from the demand side. But if you look at the other side of this, you've got a lot of content in China, like the Tianjin Composite center structures from SAMC. Given the heavy border restrictions and lockdowns there, aside from the political things that keep getting talked about, how are you managing that part of your supply chain and any potential risks there?

戴夫，您談了很多關於中國以及它從需求端的重要性。但如果您從另一個角度來看，您在中國有很多內容，例如資產管理公司（SAMC）的天津複合中心結構。鑑於那裡嚴格的邊境限制和封鎖，除了不斷被討論的政治因素外，您如何管理供應鏈的這一部分以及那裡存在的潛在風險？

Yes. I don't -- we don't -- our team doesn't see any near-term or even medium-term risks there. And performance has been outstanding. I'm never going to say never that big disruptions can occur. I don't -- if those kinds of disruptions occur, we got a lot of other issues we're going to have to contend with.

是的。我們的團隊沒有看到任何短期甚至中期風險。而且業績一直都非常出色。我永遠不會說永遠不會發生重大中斷。如果發生這種中斷，我們將面臨許多其他問題。

So honestly, it's not the highest thing on our list. It performs quite well. We do have options. Admittedly, they take time to put into gear. But no, I think we're in an okay place there.

所以說實話，它在我們的清單上不算最重要。它的表現相當不錯。我們確實有其他選擇。誠然，它們需要時間來完善。但我認為我們目前的情況還不錯。

Can you highlight then where you do see the most -- the biggest constraints as you try and ramp up from a supply chain point of view?

那麼，您能否強調一下，當您從供應鏈的角度嘗試擴大規模時，您看到的最大限制因素是什麼？

Today, it's going to go back to the old engine questions and castings and forgings. That is already constrained our outlook. And I think as I mentioned the last time we were all together, I wish we could have done increase rates even faster than we had acknowledged, but it has always been a supply constraint that has done that. And it's mostly forgings and castings and mostly through our engine suppliers. So that is what it is.

今天，問題又回到了老舊的引擎問題以及鑄鍛件。這已經限制了我們的前景。我想，正如我上次開會時提到的，我希望我們能夠比之前承認的更快地提高產量，但一直以來都是供應限制導致了產量下降。這主要是鍛鍛件的問題，而且主要透過我們的引擎供應商來解決。所以，情況就是這樣。

I do think they are under control and being managed very effectively and that the supply side of this is that everybody has put their cushions in place to be able to take care of it. And then the only other medium term -- I haven't been asked, maybe I will. I won't call it short term, but medium-term question, of course, is titanium. And as long as the geopolitical situation stays tame, no problem. If it doesn't, we're protected for quite a while, but not forever.

我確實認為這些需求已得到控制，並且得到了非常有效的管理。在供應方面，各方都已做好應對準備。此外，唯一的中期問題——我還沒有被問到，也許我會問。我不會稱之為短期問題，但中期問題當然是鈦。只要地緣政治局勢保持溫和，就沒問題。即使情況惡化，我們也會受到相當長一段時間的保護，但不會永遠。

Next, we'll go to Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

接下來，我們來拜訪 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

Dave, I wanted to go with a high-level question here now that you've been in the seat for a while, recognizing that you've spent most of this time putting out fires. But when we discuss the Boeing investment thesis after a decade of fairly extreme swings in performance, we're often asked, particularly by investors that are returning to the story after an absence, how the culture is changing at Boeing. So how should investors think of you and your team as agents have changed? And in what ways are you improving the culture at Boeing?

戴夫，既然您已經執掌波音一段時間了，我想問一個比較高深的問題，我知道您大部分時間都在忙於救火。但是，當我們討論波音在經歷了十年業績劇烈波動之後的投資理念時，我們經常會被問到，尤其是那些在離開一段時間後重新關注波音的投資者，波音的文化正在發生怎樣的變化。那麼，投資人應該如何看待您和您的團隊的變化呢？您正在透過哪些方式改善波音的文化？

Yes. I mean that's the million-dollar question, and I appreciate you asking it. And that's what we work on every day all day.

是的。我的意思是，這是一個價值百萬美元的問題，我很感謝你提出這個問題。這也是我們每天都在努力解決的問題。

I think investors, those same investors, what frustrates them is the unpredictability of our performance in light of those few instances that caused severe pressure on our company. And I will be the first to admit that they were not events caused by the outside world, but unfortunately, missteps inside.

我認為，投資者，也就是那些投資者，真正讓他們感到沮喪的是，考慮到少數幾次給公司帶來巨大壓力的事件，我們業績的不可預測性。我首先承認，這些事件並非外在因素造成的，而是公司內部的失誤，這很不幸。

So we're doing, I think, what they would want us to do. Our culture is focused on getting as close to our work as we possibly can from the very top of the company through the engineering ranks all the way down through all the support functions that ultimately have to help mechanics on the line stay disciplined, create standard work that's predictable, repeatable, et cetera, safety and quality systems that are reinculcated in every way I can think of into every nook and cranny of the company. And that is literally what we have been working on.

所以，我想，我們正在做他們希望我們做的事情。我們的文化專注於盡可能地貼近我們的工作，從公司最高層到工程團隊，再到所有支援部門，最終要幫助生產線上的機械師保持紀律，創造可預測、可重複的標準化工作等等，並將安全和品質體係以我能想到的各種方式灌輸到公司的每個角落。這正是我們一直在努力的方向。

So I appreciate the question. I think we're getting much better. In fact, we're getting really good at it. And I think someday, we'll all point to it as a real advantage for The Boeing Company. But I know where we're coming from. And you do, too. Again, I do appreciate the company. Sometimes our vision and our priorities look boring to people. But when you stop and think of where we came from, I'm proud of this team for rallying around exactly that.

我很感謝你的提問。我認為我們正在進步。事實上，我們在這方面做得非常好。我相信，總有一天，我們都會認為這是波音公司的一個真正優勢。我知道我們的起點，你們也是。再次強調，我非常欣賞這家公司。有時，我們的願景和優先事項在人們看來可能有些枯燥乏味。但當你停下來思考我們的起點時，我為這個團隊能夠團結一致、共同努力而感到自豪。

Next, we'll go to Peter Arment with Baird.

接下來，我們將和貝爾德一起拜訪彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Dave, maybe just to put a finer point on China MAX kind of deliveries resuming. You sound pretty confident that this could be a first quarter event. So what do we specifically need to see from the Chinese regulator? It sounds like they're doing some test flights over there already. What should we be looking for?

戴夫，我想更詳細地談談中國 737 MAX 飛機的恢復交付。您聽起來很有信心，認為這可能是第一季的事。那麼，我們具體需要從中國監管機構看到什麼呢？聽起來他們已經在那裡進行了一些試飛。我們應該關注哪些方面？

Yes. Thank you. Yes. It's -- again, I don't think this is necessarily in the geopolitical realm as much as it is in the needs of the customers and operations inside of China. What I will say is it has been perfectly predictable and methodical way in which they've returned their fleet to service.

是的，謝謝。是的。我再說一遍，我認為這不一定是出於地緣政治考慮，而是出於中國客戶和營運的需求。我想說的是，他們恢復機隊服役的方式完全是可以預見的，而且很有條理。

They went through the cert process. They reauthorized the airplane to fly. The airlines are warming up the airplanes they already have. As you said, they're taking test flights in a very methodical, intelligent way. And they are beginning to notify us around when they intend to bring it into revenue service.

他們完成了認證流程，並重新授權飛機飛行。航空公司正在對現有飛機進行熱身。正如您所說，他們正在以非常有條理、智能的方式進行試飛。而且，他們開始在計劃投入營運時通知我們。

That all has to happen with the airplanes they own. And then deliveries, in my view, will commence. And it is quiet, methodical and as effective way as it has been to date.

這一切都必須發生在他們擁有的飛機上。然後，在我看來，交付就會開始。而且，整個過程安靜、有序，而且和迄今為止一樣有效。

There's nothing that we're involved in that would suggest otherwise. So anyway, I do feel confident only because of every tea leaf I've been able to watch here. And they're following through on, frankly, every commitment they've made.

我們參與的任何事都顯示情況並非如此。所以，無論如何，我之所以感到自信，是因為我在這裡親眼目睹了一切。坦白說，他們正在履行他們所做的每一個承諾。

Next, we'll go to Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們請出摩根士丹利的克里斯汀‧利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag)。

Brian, thank you for providing the puts and takes and free cash flow for 2022. But could you quantify some of these pieces for the year and the key variables they depend on? I mean, ultimately, the questions I'm getting is, is 2022 free cash flow a smidge over 0? Or is it closer to something like $5 billion?

Brian，感謝您提供2022年的收益和自由現金流數據。您能否量化一下今年的部分數據以及它們所依賴的關鍵變數？我的意思是，最終我的問題是，2022年的自由現金流是略高於0嗎？還是更接近50億美元？

Yes. It's not a smidge over 0, I promise you that. And we're not going to be as descriptive as you might want. However, as we begin to deliver on these milestones and we start to be able to have the volume improvement from the 737, 787, we know we are going to have accelerated cash flows.

是的。我向你保證，絕對不會超過零。我們不會像你希望的那樣詳細描述。但是，隨著我們開始實現這些里程碑，並且能夠實現737、787的產量提升，我們知道我們的現金流將會加速成長。

As I mentioned, first quarter, we know it's going to be usage, but we do expect that there will be a relatively sharp acceleration in the back half of the year as we begin to liquidate this inventory. And then as we exit the year, we're going to be moving to a much more normalized state and then have a meaningful acceleration of cash flow in 2023. And again, what number of billions, too close to call, but it's more than 0, I promise you.

正如我所提到的，第一季度，我們知道使用量會下降，但我們預計下半年隨著我們開始清理庫存，現金流增速會相對大幅加快。到年底，我們將進入一個更正常的狀態，並在2023年實現現金流的顯著加速。至於具體數字，十億，很難說，但我向你保證，肯定不只0。

Operator, we have time for one last call or one last question.

接線員，我們還有時間接聽最後一通電話或問最後一個問題。

Certainly. And that will be from Ken Herbert with RBC.

當然。以下是加拿大皇家銀行的肯‧赫伯特的報告。

I just wanted to see if we could put a finer point on the 787 and where you are with production today and the inventory drawdown. It looks like you're producing at a lower rate, perhaps 1 or lower a month than the 2 you were at coming out of the third quarter. And obviously, the uptick to 5 sounds maybe a little more cautious than before. Can you just comment on build rates on the 87? And then what the free cash guide implies in terms of the inventory reduction this year?

我只是想看看我們能否更詳細地談談787，以及你們目前的生產情況和庫存下降情況。看起來你們的生產速度較低，可能每個月只有一架，甚至比第三季剛開始時的每月兩架還要低。顯然，增加到五架聽起來可能比以前更加謹慎。能否評論一下787的生產速度？那麼，免費現金指南對今年庫存減少意味著什麼？

Let me just start with the rate. There's not going to be a finer point other than to reemphasize our priorities, which is we don't like carrying a bunch of inventory. That's for sure. We will run our rate as low as we can while we burn our inventory as fast as we can I think is the way to think about it.

我先從利率說起。除了再次強調我們的優先事項之外，沒有比這更細緻的了，那就是我們不喜歡持有大量庫存。這是肯定的。我們會盡可能降低利率，同時盡可能快速地消耗庫存，我認為這才是我們應該考慮的問題。

And then as the order books fill up and the market gets very active, and I happen to believe it will, then we're going to sort of monitor production rates to make sure we stay ahead of that delivery cycle. So again, I can't give you a finer point on exactly when and how. I will suggest we have a clear priority, which is to burn down that inventory first. Brian, anything you want to add?

隨著訂單不斷增加，市場變得非常活躍——我相信這種情況會持續下去——我們將監控生產力，確保領先於交付週期。所以，我無法再具體說明何時以及如何進行。我建議我們有一個明確的優先事項，就是先消耗庫存。 Brian，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

And there is an assumption that we're going to have some liquidation of inventory for sure on the 787. Stay tuned for the specifics.

並且我們假設我們肯定會對 787 進行一些庫存清算。請繼續關注具體情況。

And that completes The Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining.

波音公司2021年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。

Appreciate it, everyone.

大家多多欣賞。