波音 (BA) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。大家好，歡迎參加波音公司 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。管理層討論和幻燈片演示以及分析師問答環節正在互聯網上進行現場直播。 （操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

目前，關於開場白和介紹，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁 Matt Welch 先生。韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Boeing's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，約翰，大家早上好。歡迎參加波音 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。我是馬特·韋爾奇，今天和我在一起的是波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩；波音公司執行副總裁兼首席財務官布萊恩·韋斯特（Brian West）。

And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation through our website at boeing.com. As always, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today.

提醒一下，您可以通過我們的網站 boeing.com 關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。與往常一樣，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務信息。

Projections, estimates and goals we include in our discussions this morning involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and certain -- and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

我們今天上午討論的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和本網絡演示文稿末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。此外，我們向您推薦我們的收益發布和披露以及某些非公認會計原則措施的對賬。

Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給 Dave Calhoun。

Yes. Thanks, Matt. Just upfront, we're changing this format just a bit so that I can limit my remarks upfront to some observations and thoughts with respect to where we are in this rebuilding process. And then Brian will take you into more detail on the financial side.

是的。謝謝，馬特。只是預先，我們正在稍微改變這種格式，以便我可以將我的評論限制在關於我們在這個重建過程中所處位置的一些觀察和想法上。然後布賴恩將帶您了解財務方面的更多細節。

With respect to the environment, there's no doubt Omicron has paused the industry recovery. But it has not changed the outlook for the industry recovery, such that while it might be delayed a few more months, the bookings and the customer discussions with respect to fleet plans, medium and long term, are still quite robust. And we are quite confident in that outlook.

在環境方面，毫無疑問，Omicron 已經暫停了行業復甦。但這並沒有改變行業復甦的前景，因此儘管可能會再推遲幾個月，但有關中長期船隊計劃的預訂和客戶討論仍然相當強勁。我們對這一前景充滿信心。

2021 I would characterize for Boeing as a rebuilding year. We came from recovery to rebuilding. And I give our team a lot of credit for, frankly, making a lot of progress on that front. Number one, on the orders front and demand, particularly led by the MAX and the freighter market. I feel very good about where things are and the competitiveness of our product line with respect to that market.

我認為 2021 年是波音的重建年。我們從恢復到重建。坦率地說，我非常感謝我們的團隊，因為他們在這方面取得了很大進展。第一，在訂單和需求方面，尤其是 MAX 和貨機市場。我對事物的現狀以及我們的產品線在該市場上的競爭力感到非常滿意。

Supply constraints to date have not constrained us. On the other hand, I think in the medium- to long-term future, it's something we all have to plan for. I've always viewed the unfortunate means by which we got here and the buildup of finished goods inventory, both with respect to the MAX and the 787. That's sort of a double-edged sword. I hate that we have a lot of inventory. On the other hand, it will probably serve us well in what is likely to be a robust recovery.

迄今為止的供應限制並沒有限制我們。另一方面，我認為從中長期來看，這是我們都必須計劃的事情。對於 MAX 和 787，我一直認為我們到達這裡的不幸方式以及成品庫存的增加。這是一把雙刃劍。我討厭我們有很多庫存。另一方面，它可能會在可能強勁的複蘇中為我們提供良好的服務。

With respect to fleet rebuilding, I would also just like to highlight the efficiency gains and maybe even more importantly, the emissions gains that our customers enjoy when they replace their current fleet with these new aircraft are significant, and the pressures are severe.

關於機隊重建，我還想強調效率提升，也許更重要的是，我們的客戶在用這些新飛機替換現有機隊時所享受的排放收益是顯著的，而且壓力是巨大的。

So I think that creates some additive pressure with respect to fleet renewals as we move forward. And I don't think either of those will let up.

因此，我認為隨著我們的前進，這會給車隊更新帶來一些額外的壓力。而且我認為其中任何一個都不會放鬆。

The MAX return to service. I'm quite proud of where we are on that. We have regulatory approval now in almost every jurisdiction in the world. You know that China, Indonesia and Ethiopia all delivered prior to the end of the year.

MAX 重新投入使用。我為我們在這方面的地位感到非常自豪。我們現在在世界上幾乎每個司法管轄區都獲得了監管批准。你知道中國、印度尼西亞和埃塞俄比亞都是在年底之前交付的。

We delivered 245 airplanes in '21. We've flown safely over 800,000 flight hours, 99.3% service reliability. And we've now flown more post the MAX grounding than we did pre-MAX grounding.

我們在 21 年交付了 245 架飛機。我們已經安全飛行了 800,000 多個飛行小時，服務可靠性達到 99.3%。而且我們現在在 MAX 接地後的飛行次數比在 MAX 接地前的飛行次數要多。

China is preparing for their MAX return to service and for delivery. And we have set up a plan that allows for that in the first quarter. But of course, they'll take them as the government returns the current fleet to service. Our customers are moving methodically and very well with respect to that return to service.

中國正在為他們的 MAX 恢復服務和交付做準備。我們已經制定了一個計劃，允許在第一季度實現這一目標。但是，當然，他們會在政府恢復現有艦隊服役時接受它們。在恢復服務方面，我們的客戶正在有條不紊地進行並且非常順利。

87, very unfortunate charge that we took here in the fourth quarter. It reflects everything we've learned about the rework process itself, the data required to restart deliveries and obtain ticketing and then customer expectations regarding concessions as we move forward. With all that said, I still feel fantastic about the future of the 787 airplane for The Boeing Company.

87，我們在第四季度在這裡接受了非常不幸的指控。它反映了我們所了解的關於返工過程本身的所有信息、重新開始交付和獲得票證所需的數據，以及客戶在我們前進時對讓步的期望。儘管如此，我仍然對波音公司的 787 飛機的未來感到非常高興。

And anyway, as I think I point out every time we get together, these 87s today, the field -- the fleet and service is flying, is more utilized than any other wide-body airplane. It's -- 99% of it is in service today with respect to the pre-pandemic levels. And it's the most utilized wide-body out there, 98.99% reliability. So this is a great product line and a competitive product. And as soon as we begin delivery, we feel very good about the ultimate recovery.

無論如何，正如我想每次我們聚在一起時我都會指出的那樣，今天的這些 87 飛機——機隊和服務正在飛行，比任何其他寬體飛機都得到了更多的利用。就大流行前的水平而言，它的 99% 已在今天投入使用。它是目前使用最多的寬體機身，可靠性高達 98.99%。所以這是一個偉大的產品線和一個有競爭力的產品。而且一旦我們開始交付，我們對最終的恢復感覺非常好。

On BDS, we did hit a bunch of really important milestones. The MQ-25, we experienced our first refueling, and we began carrier tests. The T-7A production line, which is based on significantly improved development process and engineering modeling capabilities, is off to a very good start. And the efficiency associated with that development process is being realized.

在 BDS 上，我們確實達到了許多非常重要的里程碑。 MQ-25，我們經歷了第一次加油，我們開始了航母測試。基於顯著改進的開發流程和工程建模能力的T-7A生產線開局良好。並且正在實現與該開發過程相關的效率。

And then the tanker. The tanker today despite the charge, again, which we don't feel great about by any respect, but the tanker today is an incredible asset for our customer and now serves 70% of the missions that were intended in the development of the tanker. And our job is to continue to deliver the tanker and to do it more expeditiously as we move forward. The good news is our customer likes the performance of the airplane. And again, we intend to serve that need.

然後是油輪。今天的油輪儘管再次收費，但我們對此並不滿意，但今天的油輪對我們的客戶來說是一項令人難以置信的資產，現在完成了 70% 的油輪開發任務。我們的工作是繼續交付油輪，並在我們前進的過程中更快地交付。好消息是我們的客戶喜歡飛機的性能。同樣，我們打算滿足這一需求。

Global Services, it is recovering like all the service businesses that surround aviation. It's on a great path. The team is doing a terrific job. We had a small write-off with respect to materials that ultimately would not be utilized in this recovery. But BGS is doing quite well, and this is experiencing the recovery.

全球服務，它正在復蘇，就像圍繞航空的所有服務業務一樣。這是一條偉大的道路。該團隊正在做一項了不起的工作。我們對最終不會在此次回收中使用的材料進行了少量註銷。但 BGS 做得很好，這正在經歷復甦。

And then I feel very good about the free cash flow that we generated in the fourth quarter. As everybody knows, we have been focused relentlessly on improving our free cash flow situation. It has been our #1 metric. And to be able to achieve that, I think, is terrific news.

然後我對我們在第四季度產生的自由現金流感覺非常好。眾所周知，我們一直致力於改善我們的自由現金流狀況。它一直是我們的#1 指標。我認為，能夠實現這一目標是一個了不起的消息。

Sustainability, it is the one issue every customer wants to talk to us about not with respect to 2050 or 2035, but they want to make sure that we have a program in place that will support them over that time frame. And it is very important to the every next order that we achieve.

可持續性，這是每個客戶想要與我們討論的一個問題，而不是關於 2050 年或 2035 年，但他們希望確保我們有一個計劃在那個時間範圍內支持他們。這對於我們實現的每一個下一個訂單都非常重要。

So believe it or not, the competition for today's airplanes is often built around the future plans that we have with respect to sustainability. And I love where we're going on that and the story we -- that we have for our customers.

所以不管你信不信，今天飛機的競爭通常是圍繞著我們在可持續性方面的未來計劃而建立的。我喜歡我們正在做的事情以及我們為客戶提供的故事。

Innovation is strong in every way. I mentioned the MQ-25, the T-7A. Future capabilities with respect to the next development program, we've invested a lot. We continue to invest a lot. It's more important to me that we get our development tools where they need to be, demonstrate manufacturing capability and capacity where we need to be before we call out the spec on the next new commercial airplane. So I remain focused on that as a priority. And so far, so good.

創新在各個方面都很強大。我提到了 MQ-25，T-7A。關於下一個開發計劃的未來能力，我們已經投入了很多。我們繼續進行大量投資。對我來說更重要的是，在我們為下一架新的商用飛機制定規格之前，我們將開發工具放在需要的地方，展示我們需要的製造能力和產能。所以我仍然把重點放在這一點上。到目前為止，一切都很好。

Talent, we were stable over the course of '21. Turnover was managed, I think, quite well and quite aggressively. And so I feel good about that and our ability to hire as we move forward. But I will also acknowledge that there are shortages out there in critical skills, and we have to be very competitive in order to get them.

人才，我們在 21 年的過程中很穩定。我認為，營業額管理得非常好，而且非常積極。因此，我對這一點以及我們在前進過程中的招聘能力感到滿意。但我也承認，關鍵技能存在短缺，我們必須非常有競爭力才能獲得它們。

I'll highlight the priorities we have. I don't think any of them should surprise anybody. They may look boring with respect to words like stability, safety, quality management. But that is still our focus, and we're going to be relentless about it.

我將強調我們的優先事項。我認為他們中的任何一個都不應該讓任何人感到驚訝。就穩定性、安全性、質量管理等詞而言，它們可能看起來很無聊。但這仍然是我們的重點，我們將堅持不懈。

This is a very important year as we begin the year and then exit the year where we can predict to customers and to all of you the deliveries of our airplanes and ensure the quality is what it needs to be, et cetera.

這是非常重要的一年，因為我們開始了這一年，然後結束了這一年，我們可以向客戶和所有人預測我們飛機的交付情況，並確保質量達到預期，等等。

And culturally, our team is getting closer to their work than they've ever been. We feel good about that, and we invest. We're investing heavily in the future capabilities of our company.

在文化上，我們的團隊比以往任何時候都更接近他們的工作。我們對此感覺良好，我們進行投資。我們正在大力投資於公司未來的能力。

So that's it with respect to my upfront comments. I'll turn it over to Brian. We can go through the quarter's performance and then a little more time for Q&A.

這就是我的前期評論。我會把它交給布賴恩。我們可以回顧一下本季度的表現，然後再花一點時間進行問答。

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. 2021 was a year of recovery for our business. We're optimistic about how we're positioned entering 2022 and have high confidence in the long-term strength of the company.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早上好。 2021 年是我們業務復甦的一年。我們對進入 2022 年的定位持樂觀態度，並對公司的長期實力充滿信心。

We remain focused on solidifying our business for long-term success. The lessons we've learned and the changes we've implemented in the last 2 years will help us to do that. We're driving safety, quality, stability into every corner of our operations to enable future growth. And we made solid progress against our goals over the last 3 months.

我們仍然專注於鞏固我們的業務以取得長期成功。我們吸取的教訓和過去兩年實施的改變將幫助我們做到這一點。我們將安全、質量、穩定性推進到我們運營的每一個角落，以實現未來的增長。在過去的 3 個月裡，我們在實現目標方面取得了堅實的進展。

In particular, as Dave mentioned, we're proceeding to get 737 MAX airplanes ready to deliver in China as early as the first quarter and follow the lead of our customers and regulators on next steps. On the 787, while we can't predict when deliveries will restart, we have made meaningful strides in addressing many of the nonconformances we identified. We have work remaining to do, and we continue to hold detailed productive discussions with the FAA every step of the way.

特別是，正如 Dave 所提到的，我們正在著手準備最早在第一季度在中國交付的 737 MAX 飛機，並在接下來的步驟中跟隨我們的客戶和監管機構的領導。在 787 上，雖然我們無法預測何時重新開始交付，但我們在解決我們發現的許多不符合項方面取得了有意義的進展。我們還有工作要做，我們將繼續與 FAA 進行詳細的富有成效的討論。

Looking to our financials. Despite some of the near-term challenges, we generated positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter and believe free cash flow will continue to materially improve this year and into 2023.

關注我們的財務狀況。儘管面臨一些近期挑戰，我們在第四季度產生了正的自由現金流，並相信自由現金流將在今年和 2023 年繼續大幅改善。

With this backdrop, we think of 2022 in 3 parts. First, we'll focus on reaching key milestones so that we can resume 737 deliveries to Chinese customers and restart 787 deliveries. Then once we achieve these important milestones, we expect to see improvement in our performance metrics, including deliveries, revenue, margin and cash flow. And we intend to come back to you with detailed plans for the rest of the year and beyond.

在這種背景下，我們將 2022 年分為三個部分。首先，我們將專注於實現關鍵里程碑，以便我們能夠恢復對中國客戶的 737 交付並重啟 787 交付。然後，一旦我們實現了這些重要的里程碑，我們預計我們的績效指標會有所改善，包括交付、收入、利潤率和現金流。我們打算在今年餘下時間及以後向您提供詳細計劃。

Finally, as we move through the second half of the year, our financial performance should start to accelerate. And we think there is a significant opportunity ahead for our company return to sustainable growth. Net net, we're well positioned at the start of the year and encouraged by the hope of a return to normalcy in 2022.

最後，隨著我們進入下半年，我們的財務表現應該會開始加速。我們認為，我們公司將面臨重回可持續增長的重大機遇。淨淨值，我們在年初處於有利位置，並因希望在 2022 年恢復正常而受到鼓舞。

Before I get into the detailed financial results, I want to make a few points on the current environment on Slide 4. Let's start with the demand side. In the commercial market, we continue to see an overall broadening of the recovery starting with domestic traffic, which rebounded to around 90% of pre-pandemic levels in countries such as the U.S. and Brazil.

在我進入詳細的財務結果之前，我想在幻燈片 4 上對當前環境提出幾點看法。讓我們從需求方面開始。在商業市場，我們繼續看到從國內交通開始的整體復甦擴大，在美國和巴西等國家，國內交通反彈至大流行前水平的 90% 左右。

In the U.S., domestic traffic nearly fully recovered at 94% of pre-COVID levels in November. December data suggests resilient traffic despite the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, but early 2022 bookings data indicate a more visible negative impact likely extending through February. Beyond that, we expect the recovery for the spring and summer seasons.

在美國，11 月份國內客流量幾乎完全恢復到疫情前水平的 94%。 12 月的數據表明，儘管 Omicron 變體迅速傳播，但流量有彈性，但 2022 年初的預訂數據表明，更明顯的負面影響可能會延續到 2 月。除此之外，我們預計春季和夏季將出現復甦。

Outside of the U.S., the recovery continues broadening in Europe and South America. However, further lockdowns have stagnated recovery in China, where we have seen traffic decrease considerably. Despite some near-term volatility, we're encouraged by airlines' plans for the spring and summer travel seasons.

在美國以外，歐洲和南美的複蘇繼續擴大。然而，進一步的封鎖使中國的複蘇停滯不前，我們看到中國的交通量大幅下降。儘管近期出現了一些波動，但航空公司對春季和夏季旅行季節的計劃令我們感到鼓舞。

On the international front, traffic has improved throughout the year from more than 85% below 2019 levels to 60% as the year ended with a meaningful benefit from reopening of borders and lifting of travel restrictions. In particular, the transatlantic corridor showed improvement due to coordinated travel policies between the EU and the U.S.

在國際方面，全年交通量從比 2019 年水平低 85% 提高到 60%，並從重新開放邊界和取消旅行限制中受益匪淺。特別是，由於歐盟和美國之間協調的旅行政策，跨大西洋走廊表現出改善。

The commercial freighter market continues to be robust with 2021 cargo traffic 7% above pre-pandemic levels. We saw record freighter demand last year driven by both e-commerce growth and demand for faster, more reliable transport that airfreight can provide. And we're seeing the same steady recovery broadly in our commercial services business as well.

商業貨輪市場繼續強勁，2021 年貨運量比大流行前水平高出 7%。去年，由於電子商務的增長以及對空運能夠提供的更快、更可靠的運輸的需求，我們看到了創紀錄的貨運需求。我們在商業服務業務中也看到了同樣的穩定復甦。

Given this demand recovery, our customers are increasingly focused on their medium-term flight planning and continue to prioritize fleet modernization as an enabler to reduce carbon emissions and increase operating efficiency. New airplanes we deliver will be as much as 25% to 40% more fuel efficient with commensurate reductions in emissions compared to the airplanes they replace. And as oil prices remain high, our customers are keenly aware of these benefits.

鑑於需求復蘇，我們的客戶越來越關注他們的中期飛行計劃，並繼續將機隊現代化作為減少碳排放和提高運營效率的推動因素。我們交付的新飛機與它們所取代的飛機相比，燃油效率將提高 25% 至 40%，同時排放量也會相應減少。由於油價居高不下，我們的客戶敏銳地意識到這些好處。

Overall, our projections for the 3-phase commercial market recovery remain unchanged, and we still assume pass-through traffic will return to 2019 levels in the 2023 to 2024 time frame. We continue to see domestic traffic lead the recovery followed by intra-regional and then long-haul international routes. Long-term fundamentals that support demand for air traffic remain intact as we continue to project average traffic growth of mid-single digits over the long term.

總體而言，我們對商業市場三階段復甦的預測保持不變，我們仍然假設直通流量將在 2023 年至 2024 年的時間範圍內恢復到 2019 年的水平。我們繼續看到國內航線引領復甦，其次是區域內航線，然後是長途國際航線。支持空中交通需求的長期基本面保持不變，因為我們繼續預測長期平均運輸量增長為中個位數。

In the defense and space markets, we're seeing stable demand. We continue to monitor the federal budget process in the U.S. and see strong bipartisan support for national security, including Boeing products and services.

在國防和太空市場，我們看到了穩定的需求。我們將繼續監控美國的聯邦預算流程，並看到兩黨對國家安全的大力支持，包括波音產品和服務。

While governments around the world remain focused on COVID-19, security spending remains a priority given global threats. On the supply side, with our production at relatively low rates and higher-than-normal inventory levels, the supply chain is currently not a constraint. However, as we look forward to the industry recovering and future production rate increases, our supply chain remains a key watch item due to raw material and labor availability as well as logistical challenges.

儘管世界各國政府仍將重點放在 COVID-19 上，但鑑於全球威脅，安全支出仍然是優先事項。在供應方面，由於我們的生產速度相對較低且庫存水平高於正常水平，因此供應鏈目前不受限制。然而，由於我們期待行業復甦和未來生產率的提高，由於原材料和勞動力的可用性以及物流挑戰，我們的供應鏈仍然是一個關鍵的觀察項目。

We regularly monitor supplier health and have risk mitigation plans in place for critical components. As we prepare for future rate production increases, we will continue to prioritize operational stability across the value stream. Long term, the markets we serve are robust, and we remain confident in the fundamentals of our business and the growth of the industry.

我們定期監控供應商的健康狀況，並為關鍵組件製定風險緩解計劃。在我們為未來產量增加做準備時，我們將繼續優先考慮整個價值流的運營穩定性。從長遠來看，我們所服務的市場是強勁的，我們對我們的業務基本面和行業的發展充滿信心。

With that, let's turn to the financials on Page 5, Slide 5. Fourth quarter revenue of $14.8 billion declined 3%. And the core operating loss in the quarter was $4.5 billion, resulting in a $7.69 loss per share. We generated positive operating cash flow of over $700 million in the fourth quarter driven by 737 deliveries and favorable receipt timing in BDS.

有了這個，讓我們轉向第 5 頁，幻燈片 5 上的財務數據。第四季度收入為 148 億美元，下降了 3%。本季度的核心經營虧損為 45 億美元，每股虧損 7.69 美元。在 BDS 的 737 次交付和有利的收貨時間的推動下，我們在第四季度產生了超過 7 億美元的正經營現金流。

Let's now look to Commercial Airplanes on Slide 6. Commercial order activity picked up significantly in 2021 as airlines are positioning for the recovery, particularly in the narrow-body and freighter markets. In total for the year, we booked 909 gross Commercial Airplane orders, including 749 orders for the 737 MAX. We also booked a record number of orders on our freighter airplanes, and we ended the year with 11 straight months of positive net orders. We appreciate every order from our broad customer base, including United, Southwest, Alaska, UPS and FedEx. We are also honored that Akasa, Allegiant and 777 partners recently selected Boeing to support their future fleets. We had over 4,200 airplanes in backlog at the end of 2021 valued at $297 billion.

現在讓我們看看幻燈片 6 中的商用飛機。隨著航空公司為複蘇做好準備，特別是在窄體和貨機市場，商業訂單活動在 2021 年顯著回升。今年，我們總共預訂了 909 架商用飛機訂單，其中包括 749 架 737 MAX 的訂單。我們還預訂了創紀錄數量的貨機訂單，並且在今年結束時，我們連續 11 個月獲得了正的淨訂單。我們感謝來自我們廣大客戶群的每一份訂單，包括聯合航空、西南航空、阿拉斯加航空、UPS 和聯邦快遞。我們也很榮幸 Akasa、Allegiant 和 777 合作夥伴最近選擇波音來支持他們未來的機隊。截至 2021 年底，我們有超過 4,200 架飛機積壓，價值 2,970 億美元。

Fourth quarter revenue was $4.8 billion, essentially flat, primarily driven by higher 737 deliveries, partially offset by lower wide-body deliveries and less favorable mix. Operating losses of $4.5 billion were primarily driven by charges on the 787 program, resulting in a negative margin rate.

第四季度收入為 48 億美元，基本持平，主要受 737 交付量增加的推動，部分被寬體交付量減少和不太有利的組合所抵消。 45 億美元的運營虧損主要是由於 787 計劃的收費導致的負利潤率。

787 deliveries remain paused, and we had 110 airplanes in inventory at the end of the quarter. As you know, last year, we set out on a comprehensive program to ensure every 787 airplane in our production system conforms to our exacting specifications. We resolved many of the nonconformances, and we're finalizing our work on the remaining items.

787 架飛機的交付仍處於暫停狀態，截至本季度末，我們有 110 架飛機庫存。如您所知，去年，我們制定了一項綜合計劃，以確保我們生產系統中的每架 787 飛機都符合我們嚴格的規格。我們解決了許多不符合項，我們正在完成剩餘項目的工作。

We also continue to focus on fulfilling the requirements and expectations of the FAA. And we'll follow their lead on the timing of resuming deliveries. While this effort has inevitably impacted our deliveries to customers and our near-term financial performance, we are fully confident it is the right thing to do for our future.

我們還將繼續專注於滿足 FAA 的要求和期望。我們將在恢復交付的時間上跟隨他們的領導。雖然這項努力不可避免地影響了我們對客戶的交付和我們的近期財務業績，但我們完全相信這是為我們的未來做的正確的事情。

In the fourth quarter, we determined that the activities required to resume deliveries and the rework that will be needed on each airplane and inventory will take longer than previously expected, resulting in further delays in customer delivery dates. We regret the impact these delays have had on our customers and are working closely with each of them to support their fleet planning needs. Consequently, we're producing at very low rates, and we'll continue to do so until deliveries resume, gradually returning to 5 airplanes per month over time.

在第四季度，我們確定恢復交付所需的活動以及每架飛機和庫存所需的返工時間將比之前預期的要長，從而導致客戶交付日期進一步延遲。我們對這些延誤對我們的客戶造成的影響感到遺憾，並正在與他們每個人密切合作，以支持他們的車隊規劃需求。因此，我們以非常低的速度生產，我們將繼續這樣做，直到交付恢復，隨著時間的推移逐漸恢復到每月 5 架飛機。

From a financial impact standpoint, we now anticipate 787 abnormal costs will be approximately $2 billion, with most being incurred by the end of 2023. This estimate increased by approximately $1 billion from last quarter due to the additional rework requirements and lower production rates continuing longer than previously expected. We recorded $285 million of these abnormal costs in the fourth quarter.

從財務影響的角度來看，我們現在預計 787 項異常成本將約為 20 億美元，其中大部分將在 2023 年底發生。由於額外的返工要求和較低的生產率持續更長時間，這一估計比上一季度增加了約 10 億美元比之前預期的要好。我們在第四季度記錄了這些異常成本中的 2.85 億美元。

Additionally, we recorded a $3.5 billion noncash charge in the quarter to write down unamortized deferred production costs, primarily due to estimated customer compensation for the longer delivery delays. It is important to keep in mind that from an economic standpoint, cash margins on the 787 remain positive. While the additional costs and customer considerations will put some downward pressure on cash margins in the near term, cash margins are expected to remain positive and significantly improve over time.

此外，我們在本季度記錄了 35 億美元的非現金費用以減記未攤銷的遞延生產成本，這主要是由於估計客戶對較長交貨延遲的補償。重要的是要記住，從經濟角度來看，787 的現金利潤率仍然為正。雖然額外成本和客戶考慮將在短期內對現金利潤率造成一些下行壓力，但預計現金利潤率將保持正數並隨著時間的推移顯著提高。

We remain very confident in the future success of the 787, and it remains one of our most compelling programs. Importantly, none of the issues we're addressing have raised immediate safety or flight concerns or impacted the capabilities of the in-service fleet. We received gross orders for 21 airplanes last year, and we see a long runway ahead. We are working diligently to ensure that we are well positioned as demand recovers and accelerates in the future.

我們對 787 未來的成功充滿信心，它仍然是我們最引人注目的計劃之一。重要的是，我們正在解決的所有問題都沒有引起直接的安全或飛行問題，也沒有影響在役機隊的能力。去年我們收到了 21 架飛機的總訂單，我們看到未來的跑道很長。我們正在努力工作，以確保我們在未來需求復蘇和加速時處於有利地位。

Moving on to the 737 MAX program. The MAX is now approved to fly in over 185 countries. As mentioned, we continue to prepare airplanes for deliveries as early as the first quarter, subject to customer and regulatory approvals in China.

繼續 737 MAX 計劃。 MAX 現已獲准在超過 185 個國家/地區飛行。如前所述，我們最早會在第一季度繼續為交付飛機做準備，但需獲得中國客戶和監管機構的批准。

We also delivered 245 737 MAX airplanes last year, and we've steadily ramped up production. And we are now producing at 27 airplanes per month on our way to 31 per month early this year.

去年，我們還交付了 245 737 架 MAX 飛機，並且我們穩步提高了產量。我們現在每月生產 27 架飛機，今年年初將達到每月 31 架。

As you look to ramp both our production rate and delivery gains this year, we will continue to monitor the impact of Omicron on resource availability. We currently have 335 737 MAX airplanes in inventory and still anticipate delivering most of these airplanes by the end of 2023.

當您希望今年提高我們的生產率和交付量時，我們將繼續監控 Omicron 對資源可用性的影響。我們目前有 335 737 MAX 飛機庫存，預計到 2023 年底交付其中大部分飛機。

Timing and pace of deliveries to Chinese customers are also critical assumptions to our delivery outlook. 737 abnormal costs and the liability for 737 MAX customer considerations are largely behind us. We expect the majority of the remaining $2.9 billion liability to be liquidated this year with less than 10% of the total estimate left to be negotiated.

向中國客戶交付的時間和速度也是我們交付前景的關鍵假設。 737 異常成本和 737 MAX 客戶考慮的責任在很大程度上已經過去了。我們預計今年剩餘的 29 億美元負債中的大部分將被清算，只有不到 10% 的總估計有待協商。

On the 777X, we continue to progress through our rigorous and comprehensive test program. We have flown over 1,800 flight hours through the end of 2021. We also completed engine and airplane performance testing, and the airplane continues to perform in line with our customer commitments. Our customers recognize the compelling economics and sustainability benefits this airplane offers.

在 777X 上，我們繼續通過嚴格而全面的測試計劃取得進展。到 2021 年底，我們已經飛行了 1,800 多個飛行小時。我們還完成了發動機和飛機性能測試，飛機繼續履行我們對客戶的承諾。我們的客戶認識到這架飛機提供的引人注目的經濟和可持續性優勢。

We remain engaged with the FAA and other global regulators throughout this process. We're working towards reaching type inspection authorization, or TIA, which is a pacing item for us to begin FAA certification flight testing. We are still anticipating delivery of the first airplane in late 2023.

在整個過程中，我們仍與 FAA 和其他全球監管機構保持聯繫。我們正在努力達到型式檢查授權或 TIA，這是我們開始 FAA 認證飛行測試的一個節奏項目。我們仍期待在 2023 年底交付第一架飛機。

Also, we are currently offering the freighter version of our 777X airplane to customers. And we'll keep you updated as we progress on sales campaigns and conclude our launch timing evaluation. As a result of increasing freighter demand, we plan to increase the combined 777, 777X production rate from 2 to 3 per month this year and expect 2022 deliveries to be relatively in line with last year.

此外，我們目前正在向客戶提供我們的 777X 飛機的貨機版本。隨著銷售活動的進展和發佈時間評估的結束，我們會及時通知您。由於貨機需求增加，我們計劃今年將 777、777X 的總產量從每月 2 架提高到 3 架，並預計 2022 年的交付量將與去年基本持平。

Let's now move to Defense, Space & Security on Slide 7. Fourth quarter revenue was $5.9 billion, down 14%, and operating margin was negative 4.4%. These results were primarily driven by lower volume and less favorable performance across the portfolio, including a $402 million pretax charge on the KC-46 Tanker program. The charge is primarily driven by evolving customer requirements for a remote vision system as well as factory and supply chain disruptions, including the impact of COVID.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 7 上的國防、空間和安全。第四季度收入為 59 億美元，下降 14%，營業利潤率為負 4.4%。這些結果主要是由於整個產品組合的銷量減少和業績不佳，包括 KC-46 油輪計劃的 4.02 億美元稅前費用。收費主要是由於客戶對遠程視覺系統的需求不斷變化以及工廠和供應鏈中斷，包括 COVID 的影響。

On the commercial crew program, as previously shared, we and NASA anticipate the second uncrewed orbital flight test to occur in May. We received $7 billion in orders during the quarter, including an award for modernization of Airborne Warning and Control System to Royal Saudi Air Force.

在商業載人計劃中，如前所述，我們和 NASA 預計第二次無人軌道飛行試驗將在 5 月進行。我們在本季度收到了 70 億美元的訂單，其中包括授予沙特皇家空軍的機載預警和控制系統現代化獎。

The BDS backlog increased to $60 billion. During the quarter, BDS also delivered on critical customer milestones. Overall, we remain optimistic about our defense business.

BDS 的積壓增加到 600 億美元。在本季度，BDS 還實現了關鍵的客戶里程碑。總體而言，我們對國防業務保持樂觀。

Now let's turn to Global Services results on Slide 8. Fourth quarter Global Services revenue was $4.3 billion, up 15%, and operating margin was 9.3%. Results were driven by higher commercial services volume and favorable mix.

現在讓我們看看幻燈片 8 上的全球服務結果。第四季度全球服務收入為 43 億美元，增長 15%，營業利潤率為 9.3%。結果是由更高的商業服務量和有利的組合推動的。

Earnings were impacted by a $220 million inventory impairment in the fourth quarter. We received $6 billion in orders during the quarter, taking the BGS backlog to $20 billion. We also delivered the 50th 767-300 converted freighter and announced plans to add 10 new converted freighter lines.

收益受到第四季度 2.2 億美元庫存減值的影響。我們在本季度收到了 60 億美元的訂單，使 BGS 的積壓訂單達到 200 億美元。我們還交付了第 50 架 767-300 改裝貨機，並宣布計劃增加 10 條新改裝貨機航線。

Our services business has shown great resilience in part due to the balance of both defense and commercial offerings.

我們的服務業務表現出強大的彈性，部分原因在於國防和商業產品的平衡。

Let's move to Slide 9 and cover the full year financials. Full year revenue of $62.3 billion improved 7% versus prior year. The core operating loss was negative $4.1 billion, an improvement of $10.1 billion. The resulting core loss per share was $9.44 primarily driven by the charge on the 787.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 並涵蓋全年財務狀況。全年收入為 623 億美元，比上年增長 7%。核心經營虧損為負 41 億美元，增加了 101 億美元。由此產生的每股核心虧損為 9.44 美元，主要是由 787 的收費造成的。

Operating cash flow was negative $3.4 billion, an improvement of $15 billion. The end-year cash usage was driven by 787 inventory build, 737 customer considerations and interest payments, partially offset by commercial deliveries, order activity, favorable timing of cash receipts at BDS and tax refunds related to the CARES Act.

經營現金流為負 34 億美元，增加了 150 億美元。年末現金使用量由 787 次庫存增加、737 次客戶考慮和利息支付推動，部分被商業交付、訂單活動、BDS 現金接收的有利時機以及與 CARES 法案相關的退稅所抵消。

Now let's turn to Slide 10 to cover cash and debt. We ended the fourth quarter with strong liquidity, comprised of $16.2 billion of cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet and access to $14.7 billion across our bank credit facilities, which remain undrawn.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 10 來介紹現金和債務。我們以強勁的流動性結束了第四季度，包括資產負債表上的 162 億美元現金和有價證券，以及我們尚未提取的銀行信貸額度中的 147 億美元。

Our debt balance decreased by $4.3 billion from the end of the third quarter to $58.1 billion driven by the early paydown of the delayed draw term loan. We remain committed to reducing debt levels, and our investment-grade credit rating is a priority.

由於提前償還延遲提取的定期貸款，我們的債務餘額較第三季度末減少了 43 億美元至 581 億美元。我們仍然致力於降低債務水平，我們的投資級信用評級是我們的首要任務。

Please turn to the next slide for a look at 2022 and key drivers of the business. As you look ahead, 2022 performance will be driven by the commercial market recovery, return to delivery for the 787 and 737 MAX in China, production system and delivery stability and U.S.-China trade relations.

請轉到下一張幻燈片，了解 2022 年和業務的主要驅動力。展望未來，2022 年的表現將受到商業市場復甦、787 和 737 MAX 在中國恢復交付、生產系統和交付穩定性以及中美貿易關係的推動。

Our efforts to stabilize our production system, including the supply chain and improve our delivery predictability, remain top priorities. These activities will be paramount to our success.

我們努力穩定我們的生產系統，包括供應鍊和提高我們的交付可預測性，仍然是我們的首要任務。這些活動對我們的成功至關重要。

Looking broadly across our enterprise, we're maintaining, in some cases expanding key investments in our people, technology, manufacturing capabilities and strategic partnerships.

縱觀整個企業，我們正在維持，在某些情況下擴大對我們的人員、技術、製造能力和戰略合作夥伴關係的關鍵投資。

We're advancing our development of the MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777X programs, all while continuing to invest in digital capabilities to support our next commercial airplane program. In BDS, we're progressing on the MQ-25, T-7A, Commercial Crew and several other key development programs. As we invest, we continue to be laser-focused on our business transformation efforts to drive quality, productivity and cash flow.

我們正在推進 MAX 7、MAX 10 和 777X 計劃的開發，同時繼續投資於數字能力以支持我們的下一個商用飛機計劃。在 BDS 中，我們正在推進 MQ-25、T-7A、商業機組和其他幾個關鍵開發計劃。在我們投資的過程中，我們將繼續專注於我們的業務轉型工作，以提高質量、生產力和現金流。

Now let's take a look at the key drivers of 2022 revenue and cash. We anticipate revenue increase primarily driven by higher commercial airplane deliveries on the 737 and 787 programs. That said, revenue will be impacted by 787 customer considerations and delivering 737 airplanes that were previously remarketed. We are forecasting stable revenue in our defense business and solid growth in our services business as the commercial market continues to improve.

現在讓我們來看看 2022 年收入和現金的主要驅動因素。我們預計收入增長主要是由於 737 和 787 項目的商用飛機交付量增加。也就是說，收入將受到 787 客戶考慮和交付之前重新銷售的 737 飛機的影響。隨著商業市場的不斷改善，我們預計國防業務收入穩定，服務業務穩步增長。

Moving to cash. We still expect to generate positive free cash flow in the year. The key driver remains higher 737 and 787 delivery volume. Keep in mind, the working capital benefit from delivering airplanes from inventory will be partially offset by a lower advances in progress payments balance. We still anticipate a significant burn down of our advances balance this year, which we expect to be more front-end loaded in line with customer discussions.

轉向現金。我們仍預計今年將產生正的自由現金流。主要驅動因素仍然是 737 和 787 交付量較高。請記住，從庫存中交付飛機所帶來的營運資金收益將被進度付款餘額的較低預付款部分抵消。我們仍然預計今年我們的預付款餘額會顯著減少，我們希望根據客戶的討論更多地加載前端。

Additionally, cash flow will remain impacted by timing of receipts and expenditures. As you may recall, we booked orders last year that filled near-term skyline positions, and those unique receipts may not continue at the same levels this year.

此外，現金流仍將受到收支時間的影響。您可能還記得，我們去年預訂了填補近期天際線職位的訂單，而這些獨特的收據今年可能不會繼續保持相同的水平。

From a phasing standpoint, we anticipate the first quarter to be our lowest quarter of the year for deliveries, revenue, earnings and cash flow. First quarter cash flow could look similar to the usage we saw in 1Q '21 driven by unfavorable receipt timing, excess advance payment burn-down, resource availability due to the Omicron variant and normal seasonality. We remain confident that our free cash flow will improve in the second quarter and will meaningfully accelerate in the back half of the year as we achieve the key delivery milestones that I previously outlined.

從分階段的角度來看，我們預計第一季度將是我們今年交付、收入、收益和現金流量最低的季度。第一季度的現金流量可能與我們在 21 年第一季度看到的使用情況相似，這是由於不利的收貨時間、超額預付款燒毀、由於 Omicron 變體和正常季節性導致的資源可用性。我們仍然相信，隨著我們實現我之前概述的關鍵交付里程碑，我們的自由現金流將在第二季度有所改善，並將在下半年顯著加速。

As you look to the future, we expect 2023 cash flow will be materially higher than 2022. We look forward to sharing more details on our plan as soon as we can.

展望未來，我們預計 2023 年的現金流量將大大高於 2022 年。我們期待盡快分享我們計劃的更多細節。

In closing, the business environment remains dynamic, but we've made important progress. We are confident that we're on the right path, we're taking the right steps to drive stability and making the right investments to ensure the business is well positioned for future growth.

最後，商業環境仍然充滿活力，但我們已經取得了重要進展。我們相信我們走在正確的道路上，我們正在採取正確的步驟來推動穩定並進行正確的投資，以確保企業為未來的增長做好準備。

With that, closing comments?

有了這個，結束評論？

Yes, no further comments. I'd like to turn it over to questions and give all our time to that. Thanks.

是的，沒有進一步的評論。我想把它變成問題，並把我們所有的時間都花在這上面。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

So maybe can you help us understand the $3.5 billion of charges tied to the 787 in addition to the abnormal cost of $2 billion through 2023? That's up $1 billion from Q3 as you mentioned, Brian. What does this imply for the future profit and cash tied to the 787 program? How do we think about those deliveries going back up to 5? And then timing of those deliveries restarting because some of your customers have talked about an April time frame.

那麼，除了到 2023 年 20 億美元的異常成本之外，您能否幫助我們了解與 787 相關的 35 億美元費用？正如你提到的，這比第三季度增加了 10 億美元，布賴恩。這對與 787 計劃相關的未來利潤和現金意味著什麼？我們如何看待那些恢復到 5 的交付？然後這些交付的時間重新開始，因為您的一些客戶已經談到了 4 月的時間框架。

Thanks, Sheila. So on the 787 $3.5 billion, we previously described a pretty labor-intensive rework solution on the door surrounds. And in the quarter, we determined that this rework was going to be needed to be formed on all of the airplanes inventory. So the abnormal is $1 billion higher and will mostly go through 2023 because of this higher rework cost and the production rates being lower for longer.

謝謝，希拉。因此，在價值 35 億美元的 787 上，我們之前描述了一個相當勞動密集型的門框返工解決方案。在本季度，我們確定所有飛機庫存都需要進行這種返工。因此，異常情況要高出 10 億美元，並且大部分將持續到 2023 年，因為這種更高的返工成本和更長的生產率較低。

This, in turn, has our delivery slide to the right. So more airplanes will be impacted, not just the ones in inventory. And we provided for estimated customer concessions because of these delays, which drove the $3.5 billion charge. While this hurts in the near term, we still believe it's the right thing to do because, long term, we're going to sell a lot of these 787s for decades. So we just got to work our way through this.

這反過來又使我們的交付向右滑動。因此，更多的飛機將受到影響，而不僅僅是庫存中的飛機。由於這些延誤，我們提供了估計的客戶讓步，這推動了 35 億美元的費用。雖然這在短期內會造成傷害，但我們仍然認為這是正確的做法，因為從長遠來看，我們將在幾十年內出售大量這些 787。所以我們只需要努力解決這個問題。

In terms of getting back to 5, so we got to first get cleared to deliver, and then we're going to gradually work our way to a point we're going to get back up to 5. We don't have the time frame, but we think that the first step is getting the first one out the door.

在恢復到 5 方面，所以我們必須首先獲准交付，然後我們將逐漸努力達到我們將恢復到 5 的點。我們沒有時間框架，但我們認為第一步是讓第一個走出門外。

On the April time frame, Dave, maybe you could comment on the customer implications on that one.

在 4 月的時間範圍內，戴夫，也許你可以評論一下客戶對那個時間的影響。

Well, the April time frame is all I'll say is the customers know everything that we do. The -- we share the same regulator. They are in our factories looking at the airplanes every day. So they know exactly what's going on and where it is.

好吧，我要說的是四月份的時間框架，客戶知道我們所做的一切。 - 我們共享同一個監管機構。他們每天都在我們的工廠裡看著飛機。所以他們確切地知道發生了什麼以及它在哪裡。

I don't want to get ahead of anybody with respect to speculating the day we pick it. That's up to the FAA, and we're going to let them do what they have to do. Otherwise, I think Brian described this charge exactly the way it is.

我不想在猜測我們選擇它的那一天方面領先於任何人。這取決於美國聯邦航空局，我們將讓他們做他們必須做的事情。否則，我認為布賴恩完全按照它的方式描述了這項指控。

Next, we'll go to Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

接下來，我們將和 Cowen 一起去 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So maybe to follow up on Sheila's question. Of the $3.5 billion you mentioned that's noncash, how much of it turns into cash? How much of it is the abnormal -- the $1 billion increase? And how much of it is customer considerations? And when do you expect those to be paid out?

是的。所以也許要跟進希拉的問題。你提到的 35 億美元是非現金的，其中有多少變成了現金？其中有多少是不正常的——10億美元的增長？有多少是客戶考慮的？你預計什麼時候可以支付這些費用？

Yes. Sure, Cai. So the $1 billion increase on the abnormal is separate from the $3.5 billion. And in terms of the $3.5 billion, that will play out over a longer period of time, particularly as we have discussions with customers. Some of that might be accelerated in the near term. But overall, it's going to take us time for that cash flow to go out. It will take years.

是的。沒錯，蔡。因此，異常增加的 10 億美元與 35 億美元是分開的。就 35 億美元而言，這將在更長的時間內發揮作用，尤其是在我們與客戶進行討論時。其中一些可能會在短期內加速。但總的來說，我們需要時間才能讓現金流消失。這將需要數年時間。

In terms of how much is customer concessions, we're not going to talk about all of the pieces. Trust that as we closed the quarter, we took all the estimates in terms of what we think was going to happen both for contractual and noncontractual concessions. And it's embedded into our closing position. And we feel good about that, and now we just have to work through with our customers to -- and then start delivering.

至於客戶讓步有多少，我們不會談論所有的部分。相信當我們結束本季度時，我們根據我們認為合同和非合同特許權將發生的情況進行了所有估計。它嵌入到我們的平倉頭寸中。我們對此感覺很好，現在我們只需要與我們的客戶一起努力——然後開始交付。

In terms of the abnormal, again, that cash flow will likely go out over the next 2 years as most of that will be behind us as we get out of 2023.

同樣，就異常而言，現金流可能會在未來兩年內消失，因為隨著我們走出 2023 年，大部分現金流將在我們身後。

The only other context is that unlike in the case of the MAX, we do have an experience, unfortunately, that we can draw from in setting these estimates, and most importantly, the management of the concessions with our customers over time. So what we've posted and the way we think about it is largely based on that historical experience, of course, with the MAX. So I feel like we've probably bounded it pretty reasonably.

唯一的其他背景是，與 MAX 不同的是，不幸的是，我們確實有經驗，我們可以藉鑑這些經驗來設定這些估計，最重要的是，隨著時間的推移管理與客戶的讓步。因此，我們發布的內容和我們的思考方式很大程度上基於歷史經驗，當然，MAX 也是如此。所以我覺得我們可能已經相當合理地限制了它。

Our next question is from Myles Walton with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的邁爾斯沃爾頓。

On the 37 MAX given the lead times in the supply chain, I know that you're evaluating the timing of further increases, but can you get much above 31 a month before the end of the year if you haven't made that decision yet? And obviously, suppliers are thinking that you're looking to the 40 level as you leave '22, maybe a little clarification there.

考慮到供應鏈中的交貨時間，在 37 MAX 上，我知道您正在評估進一步增加的時間，但是如果您還沒有做出決定，那麼在今年年底之前，您能否在一個月前達到 31 以上?顯然，供應商認為您在離開 22 年時正在尋找 40 級，也許需要澄清一下。

I'll leave the supplier and the increase to Dave. I want to take the near-term production delivery MAX question head-on because it's largely unchanged from where we were last quarter as what we expect to happen in 2022. We've got 335 units of inventory. And that will liquidate through the year at a quarterly rate that is pretty similar to what we did last quarter. And then the production ramp, as you know, Myles, is going to go from 26 to 31 fairly soon. So we all think that's going to play out. And again, it's similar to what we had thought last quarter.

我將把供應商和加價留給戴夫。我想正面回答近期生產交付 MAX 的問題，因為它與我們上一季度的情況基本沒有變化，正如我們預計在 2022 年發生的那樣。我們有 335 單位的庫存。這將在全年以與我們上一季度非常相似的季度速度清算。然後，如您所知，邁爾斯，生產量將很快從 26 台增加到 31 台。所以我們都認為這會成功。同樣，這與我們上個季度的想法相似。

The one watch item that we have in the first quarter is any disruption on Omicron that might have a bit of a slower start, but we'll work our way through that. The total profile is largely unchanged. And we're quite confident in the demand. And maybe in terms of further rate increase supply chain, I'll let Dave comment on that.

我們在第一季度的一個觀察項目是 Omicron 上的任何中斷，可能會有點慢，但我們會努力解決這個問題。總體輪廓基本不變。我們對需求很有信心。也許就進一步提高供應鏈的利率而言，我會讓戴夫對此發表評論。

Well, just the prognosis that we can move it up and based on what everybody seems to want to believe, we are going to be very aggressive with our supply chain to get buffers at every corner so that we can do it. And then the question is, do we do it?

好吧，只是我們可以將其提升的預測，並且基於每個人似乎都想相信的東西，我們將非常積極地利用我們的供應鏈在每個角落獲得緩衝，以便我們能夠做到這一點。然後問題是，我們做到了嗎？

So right now, we have fewer supply constraints probably than the industry simply because we've got this big finished goods inventory that's going to carry us for the better part of the calendar year and then even a little bit into next year. So we'll take advantage of that, and then we'll ask the supply chain to build buffer both on our premise and in theirs to protect upside. That's the way we're thinking about it.

所以現在，我們的供應限制可能比行業要少，僅僅是因為我們有這麼大的成品庫存，這將使我們在日曆年的大部分時間裡，甚至還有一點點進入明年。因此，我們將利用這一點，然後我們將要求供應鏈在我們的前提下和他們的前提下建立緩衝以保護上行空間。這就是我們正在考慮的方式。

Can you talk about that next release, the next uptick this quarter?

你能談談下一個版本，本季度的下一次上漲嗎？

Can I talk about the next...

可以談下...

So going to 31?

所以去31？

Above 31. You announced that -- is that a 1Q decision basically? I know the company is evaluating further increasing.

高於 31。您宣布——這基本上是 1Q 決定嗎？我知道該公司正在評估進一步增加。

Yes. No, no. I would say no, it's not a 1Q decision for us. As I said, we will work our supply chain and work with our supply chain transparently to protect upside on rate as we get to the second half of the year, et cetera. And the minute we are ready to do it, we'll do it. But I don't want to get ahead of myself on that front. It's certainly not now.

是的。不，不。我會說不，這對我們來說不是 1Q 決定。正如我所說，我們將與我們的供應鏈合作，並透明地與我們的供應鏈合作，以在我們進入下半年等時保護利率的上行空間。一旦我們準備好去做，我們就會去做。但我不想在這方面超越自己。現在肯定不是。

Our next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

Just going back to 787 timing, so I just want to make sure I have this correct. So American Airlines is up to speed. It's an estimate, but their estimate isn't missing an update from you that they said last week that there's been nothing new for them in the last few months. So today's updates from you are marking to market additional rework, future concessions as you've determined them over the last few months as opposed to an additional timing delay for them to start.

只是回到 787 時間，所以我只是想確保我有這個正確的。所以美國航空公司跟上速度。這是一個估計，但他們的估計並沒有錯過你的更新，他們上周說他們在過去幾個月裡沒有什麼新鮮事。因此，您今天的更新標誌著您在過去幾個月中確定的額外返工和未來的讓步，而不是額外的時間延遲開始。

Yes, I agree with what you just said.

是的，我同意你剛才所說的。

Okay. And then, Dave, can you maybe just get a little more specific in what is left to do? It sounds like you were kind of iterating back and forth on inspection and rework, but that you've agreed to that. So what's actually left to do to resume deliveries?

好的。然後，戴夫，你能不能更具體地說明一下剩下要做的事情？聽起來你在檢查和返工上來回迭代，但你已經同意了。那麼實際上還需要做什麼來恢復交付呢？

Well, so we'll have to complete the rework on a large fleet of airplanes. So that in and of itself is -- takes some time to do. But then we have to update every analytics that we provide to our regulator based on every next rework, so to just again, corroborate the case that we have with respect to conformance. So you have a lag in that. You collect that data, you include it in the analytic. And then when it gets to be sufficient, you will provide it to the FAA, and then there's a work -- you work through it with them.

好吧，所以我們必須完成對一大群飛機的返工。所以這本身就是 - 需要一些時間來完成。但隨後我們必鬚根據每次下一次返工更新我們提供給監管機構的每一項分析，因此再次證實我們在一致性方面的情況。所以你有一個滯後。您收集該數據，並將其包含在分析中。然後當它變得足夠時，你會把它提供給美國聯邦航空局，然後有一個工作——你和他們一起完成它。

But that is the sort of the process that we have to go through. And there's no way to shortcut it. And I can't collect data on the airplanes I haven't reworked yet. I have to get through it. I've got to simply work my way through that.

但這是我們必須經歷的過程。而且沒有捷徑可走。而且我無法收集我尚未返工的飛機的數據。我必須克服它。我必須簡單地解決這個問題。

I have confidence in the rework programs. We have no new discoveries with respect to how we do the rework, and they're getting perfected. Just like in the case of standard work in building an airplane the first time, we have to do sort of the same thing with rework processes. And that's what we're doing. So I wish it could go faster, and I can't accelerate it. I need them all to take their time and go through their learning curves and post the data to the analysis.

我對返工計劃充滿信心。關於我們如何進行返工，我們沒有新的發現，而且它們正在變得完善。就像第一次製造飛機的標準工作一樣，我們必須對返工過程做同樣的事情。這就是我們正在做的事情。所以我希望它能走得更快，我不能加速它。我需要他們都花時間去完成他們的學習曲線並將數據發佈到分析中。

Why can't you deliver a new one clean off the line that doesn't have any of the historical errors as opposed to waiting to rework what's already built?

為什麼你不能交付一個沒有任何歷史錯誤的新產品，而不是等待返工已經構建的產品？

Yes. Well, there's a -- again, I'm not going to speak for my regulator because that's up to them on how we do it and maybe that's how things end up working. On the other hand, they are going to ticket that airplane, and they're going to want to know everything there is to know about everything. And we're still posting data with respect to what we find in our fleet. So I don't know what more to say. I wish it was perfectly predictable. It's just not.

是的。好吧，有一個 - 再次，我不會代表我的監管機構發言，因為這取決於我們如何去做，也許這就是事情最終的運作方式。另一方面，他們會為那架飛機買票，他們會想知道關於一切的一切。我們仍在發布有關我們在車隊中發現的數據的數據。所以我不知道還能說什麼。我希望它是完全可以預測的。事實並非如此。

Our next question is from David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Dave, in terms of MAX deliveries, can you give us kind of an estimate of what we should think about for actual deliveries in 2022 given the rate and given the inventory liquidation you're talking about?

戴夫，就最大交付量而言，你能給我們一個估計，考慮到你所說的速度和庫存清算，我們應該考慮到 2022 年的實際交付量嗎？

And then, Brian, a follow-up on free cash flow just given what you're implying for the Q1 burn at like $4 billion to $5 billion, seems like a long putt to get to free cash flow positive for the full year. I mean are we talking about closer to low single-digit billions and mid-single-digit billions in terms of positive free cash flow?

然後，布賴恩（Brian）對自由現金流的後續行動剛剛考慮到您對第一季度燒錢的暗示約為 40 億至 50 億美元，這似乎是一個漫長的推桿，以使全年自由現金流為正。我的意思是，就正的自由現金流而言，我們談論的是接近低個位數的數十億和中個位數的數十億嗎？

Yes. So in terms of the free cash flow, it's really going to be driven by 3 specific things. There is seasonality like every first quarter. There's going to be BDS favorability that doesn't repeat, and there's going to be some assumption on excess burn down. But I think that we have a handle around all that. And we do think it is in and out of the first quarter, and the second quarter does get favorable. In terms of -- I don't think it's going to be quite as high as the number you are throwing around, but it is going to be in the small billions.

是的。因此，就自由現金流而言，它實際上將由 3 個具體事物驅動。像每個第一季度一樣有季節性。將會有不重複的 BDS 好感度，並且會有一些關於過度燒毀的假設。但我認為我們可以解決所有這些問題。我們確實認為它在第一季度進進出出，第二季度確實變得有利。就 - 我認為它不會像你拋出的數字那麼高，但它會是幾十億。

In terms of the -- your question on MAX deliveries. So I go back to where we were last quarter, and we kind of had a ballpark of what that would look like. That hasn't changed. And again, if we continue to liquidate the inventory at about the rate that we did last quarter, and you then have your production ramp go from 26 to 31, that kind of gets us to a spot where we have a pretty good profile of what that's going to look like through the year with the one caveat is that the first quarter is probably going to be a little slow. One, because it usually is; and two, because we, like others, are wrestling with this Omicron.

就您關於 MAX 交付的問題而言。所以我回到我們上個季度的位置，我們對那會是什麼樣子有一個大致的了解。那沒有改變。再說一次，如果我們繼續以大約上一季度的速度清理庫存，然後你的產量從 26 上升到 31，那我們就可以很好地了解什麼這看起來像全年一樣，但需要注意的是，第一季度可能會有點慢。一，因為它通常是；第二，因為我們和其他人一樣，正在與這個 Omicron 搏鬥。

Somewhere around 500 deliveries, is that what we're looking at?

大約 500 次交付，這是我們正在尋找的嗎？

Ballpark seems pretty good.

棒球場似乎還不錯。

Next, we'll go to the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將與摩根大通一起前往塞思·塞夫曼的路線。

Okay. I guess it seems a little bit of a shame to ask the question about the next aircraft because there's -- I know there's a lot of more imminent stuff for the company, but you did discuss it, Dave. And so when you think about that, just maybe your updated thoughts because you did mention the work that you're doing there.

好的。我想問下一架飛機的問題似乎有點羞恥，因為我知道公司還有很多迫在眉睫的事情，但你確實討論了，戴夫。因此，當您考慮這一點時，可能只是您更新的想法，因為您確實提到了您在那裡所做的工作。

And I also asked the question in light of the success that Airbus had this past quarter with some of -- with some 737 customers. Any evolution in your thinking, number one, about market share? And number two, about the -- about where the value comes from in the aircraft? Because I think you've said in the past that it's going to come from Boeing and not the propulsion system. And that suggests a pretty big investment for Boeing. And so maybe Brian can also chime in on thinking about how the balance sheet plays into that.

我還根據空中客車公司在上個季度與一些 737 客戶取得的成功提出了這個問題。第一，關於市場份額，你的想法有什麼變化嗎？第二，關於飛機的價值來自哪裡？因為我認為你過去曾說過它將來自波音而不是推進系統。這表明波音需要進行相當大的投資。因此，也許布賴恩也可以考慮資產負債表如何發揮作用。

Yes, Seth, I appreciate the question. We are, as you know, have a reasonably full pipeline with respect to airplane developments with the MAX derivatives and the 777X, which I -- again, I will highlight as a true differentiator in the marketplace as it displaces not just the 47, but also 380 over time. And anyway, so I feel good about that.

是的，賽斯，我很欣賞這個問題。如您所知，我們在 MAX 衍生產品和 777X 的飛機開發方面擁有相當完整的管道，我再次強調它是市場上真正的差異化因素，因為它不僅取代了 47，而且隨著時間的推移也是380。無論如何，所以我對此感覺很好。

And if we're fortunate and we get customers interested in a freighter version of it, we will move aggressively along those lines. So we have a pretty good product family and development pipeline ahead of us. I just don't think that should be lost on anyone.

如果我們很幸運，並且我們讓客戶對它的貨機版本感興趣，我們將沿著這些路線積極行動。因此，我們面前有一個非常好的產品系列和開發管道。我只是不認為任何人都應該失去這一點。

And then secondly, the much longer term and much bigger program for me is the one we refer to as our IPT, integrated product team, where we're going to revamp the development process itself. And anyone who's been around our industry for a long period of time knows that the big variables in our financial performance over time usually relate to shortfalls in the development process.

其次，對我來說，更長期和更大的計劃是我們稱為 IPT 的集成產品團隊，我們將在其中改進開發過程本身。任何在我們行業工作了很長時間的人都知道，隨著時間的推移，我們財務業績中的大變量通常與開發過程中的不足有關。

And my intent and my hope in light of all the new tools that are available to us, both in terms of digital modeling on the original design. But then also being able to use that same modeling to perfect manufacturing processes at scale and ultimately serviceability, that is where the action is. That is where the next airplane is going to differentiate itself more than any other, in my opinion.

鑑於我們可用的所有新工具，無論是在原始設計的數字建模方面，我的意圖和希望都是如此。但隨後也能夠使用相同的模型來大規模完善製造流程並最終實現可維護性，這就是行動所在。在我看來，這就是下一架飛機將比其他飛機更與眾不同的地方。

So we are invested and continue to stay invested. We've allocated much of our top talent across the company to that effort. I can't wait to update everybody on, again, that progress. It won't be as exciting because it doesn't fly away, but it is, in my opinion, the most important thing that we can do, and we remain totally focused on that.

所以我們投入並繼續保持投入。我們已經在整個公司中分配了很多頂尖人才來進行這項工作。我迫不及待地想再次向大家介紹這一進展。它不會那麼令人興奮，因為它不會飛走，但在我看來，這是我們能做的最重要的事情，我們仍然完全專注於此。

With respect to the competitiveness of our product portfolio, I still feel very good about it. I never will look at any last deal and suggest that we're losing to this -- losing to somebody or not. You have to take the totality of the last couple of years.

關於我們產品組合的競爭力，我還是覺得很好。我永遠不會看任何最後一筆交易並暗示我們正在輸給這個 - 輸給某人或不輸給某人。您必須考慮過去幾年的全部情況。

They have airplanes that absolutely outperform us in certain applications, and we have some that outperform them in applications. And our customers are really good in discerning the differences and making their choices.

他們的飛機在某些應用中絕對勝過我們，我們也有一些在應用中勝過他們。我們的客戶非常善於辨別差異並做出選擇。

So I apologize, I'm sure I sound like a broken record, but we think we have our priorities right here. There will be a next airplane. As I did say and I will acknowledge, I don't think the propulsion system is going to add as much value to that next airplane, either ours or theirs, as it has historically, which means that the airframer has to add more value to it in order to make it a compelling sale to our customers.

所以我很抱歉，我敢肯定我聽起來像是一張破唱片，但我們認為我們在這裡有我們的優先事項。會有下一架飛機。正如我所說並且我會承認的那樣，我認為推進系統不會像歷史上那樣為下一架飛機（無論是我們的還是他們的）增加那麼多價值，這意味著機身製造商必須增加更多的價值它是為了使它對我們的客戶有吸引力。

I look forward to that moment anyway. So we're doing our very best to get ready for it.

無論如何，我期待著那一刻。因此，我們正在盡最大努力為此做好準備。

And on the balance sheet side of it, for us, over time, one priority is to take leverage down, but also a priority is to make sure we're going to be ready to invest in that next airplane at the right moment. And we do various scenario plannings, and we think we've got options and things to make all that happen. But again, that's a little bit of a longer look, but nothing would suggest we wouldn't want to be investors for the right airplane.

在資產負債表方面，對我們來說，隨著時間的推移，一個優先事項是降低杠桿率，但另一個優先事項是確保我們準備好在適當的時候投資下一架飛機。我們做了各種場景規劃，我們認為我們有選擇和事情來實現這一切。但同樣，這是一個更長的外觀，但沒有任何跡象表明我們不想成為合適飛機的投資者。

Next, we'll go to Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將與美國銀行一起去 Ron Epstein。

Just maybe following up on that previous question. When you look at the market share dynamic in the narrow-body market and the charges that have been taken on 78 and 73 and 27 and tanker and MQ-25, why was this the right time to put $0.5 billion into Wisk?

只是可能跟進上一個問題。當您查看窄體市場的市場份額動態以及 78 和 73 和 27 以及油輪和 MQ-25 的收費時，為什麼現在是向 Wisk 投入 5 億美元的合適時機？

Ron, I appreciate the question. This is definitely the right time to put $0.5 billion into Wisk. Number one, it's a very innovative product and a very innovative product team. I didn't create it, our partners did at Kitty Hawk. I couldn't be prouder of the work they're doing.

羅恩，我很欣賞這個問題。這絕對是向 Wisk 投入 5 億美元的合適時機。第一，它是一個非常創新的產品，也是一個非常創新的產品團隊。我沒有創造它，我們的合作夥伴在 Kitty Hawk 創造了它。我為他們所做的工作感到無比自豪。

The world wants autonomy, and the world wants electric. And this is going to be our application of those 2 technologies and to put it into real service by way of certification. So everything about this program we like, technically innovative, and it will serve a niche we don't serve today. And that's really not necessarily why you do it if you don't think there's a long-term avenue for both autonomy and electric, and a lot to learn in the process.

世界想要自治，世界想要電動。這將是我們對這兩種技術的應用，並通過認證將其投入實際服務。所以我們喜歡這個項目的一切，技術創新，它將服務於我們今天不服務的利基市場。如果您認為自動駕駛和電動化都沒有長期的途徑，並且在此過程中需要學習很多東西，那麼這真的不一定是您這樣做的原因。

So again, I view this as a high priority. It does not compete for the discussion we just had with respect to the next large commercial airplane by way of financial resources. We'll have plenty of financial resources and wherewithal to be able to do both and then some. But I am enthusiastic about our Wisk investment in the airplane and the experience to date. It's incredibly innovative.

因此，我再次將此視為重中之重。它不與我們剛才討論的關於下一架大型商用飛機的財務資源競爭。我們將有足夠的財政資源和資金來做這兩件事，然後再做一些。但我對我們在飛機上的 Wisk 投資和迄今為止的經驗充滿熱情。這是令人難以置信的創新。

And Ron, one thing to note. So we've made this commitment to the investors, but that cash is going to happen over time. And it's capped at any given quarter. So we're not really going to see it disrupt anything in the near term.

羅恩，有一點需要注意。因此，我們已經向投資者做出了這一承諾，但隨著時間的推移，現金將會出現。它在任何給定的季度都有上限。因此，我們不會真的看到它在短期內破壞任何東西。

Got it. Got it. And Dave, do you see that the autonomous technology that's being developed there potentially with an application on one of your larger products?

知道了。知道了。戴夫，您是否看到那裡正在開發的自主技術可能會應用於您的一種更大的產品？

There's a lot to be learned and applied, yes.

有很多東西要學習和應用，是的。

Next question is from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein。

Dave, you've talked a lot about China and how important it is from the demand side. But if you look at the other side of this, you've got a lot of content in China, like the Tianjin Composite center structures from SAMC. Given the heavy border restrictions and lockdowns there, aside from the political things that keep getting talked about, how are you managing that part of your supply chain and any potential risks there?

戴夫，你已經談了很多關於中國以及從需求方面來看它的重要性。但如果你看看另一方面，你在中國有很多內容，比如 SAMC 的天津綜合中心結構。鑑於那裡嚴格的邊境限制和封鎖，除了不斷被談論的政治問題外，您如何管理供應鏈的這一部分以及那裡的任何潛在風險？

Yes. I don't -- we don't -- our team doesn't see any near-term or even medium-term risks there. And performance has been outstanding. I'm never going to say never that big disruptions can occur. I don't -- if those kinds of disruptions occur, we got a lot of other issues we're going to have to contend with.

是的。我不 - 我們不 - 我們的團隊沒有看到任何近期甚至中期的風險。並且表現一直很出色。我永遠不會說永遠不會發生大的破壞。我不知道——如果發生這些干擾，我們將面臨許多其他問題。

So honestly, it's not the highest thing on our list. It performs quite well. We do have options. Admittedly, they take time to put into gear. But no, I think we're in an okay place there.

所以老實說，這不是我們名單上最高的事情。它的表現相當不錯。我們確實有選擇。誠然，他們需要時間來適應。但是不，我認為我們在那裡還不錯。

Can you highlight then where you do see the most -- the biggest constraints as you try and ramp up from a supply chain point of view?

您能否強調一下您確實看到最多的地方——從供應鏈的角度來看，當您嘗試提升時最大的限制？

Today, it's going to go back to the old engine questions and castings and forgings. That is already constrained our outlook. And I think as I mentioned the last time we were all together, I wish we could have done increase rates even faster than we had acknowledged, but it has always been a supply constraint that has done that. And it's mostly forgings and castings and mostly through our engine suppliers. So that is what it is.

今天，它將回到舊的發動機問題和鑄鍛件。這已經限制了我們的前景。我認為正如我上次提到的那樣，我希望我們能夠比我們承認的更快地提高利率，但這一直是供應限制。它主要是鍛件和鑄件，主要是通過我們的發動機供應商。所以就是這樣。

I do think they are under control and being managed very effectively and that the supply side of this is that everybody has put their cushions in place to be able to take care of it. And then the only other medium term -- I haven't been asked, maybe I will. I won't call it short term, but medium-term question, of course, is titanium. And as long as the geopolitical situation stays tame, no problem. If it doesn't, we're protected for quite a while, but not forever.

我確實認為它們受到了控制並且得到了非常有效的管理，而且供應方面是每個人都已經把他們的墊子放在適當的位置以便能夠照顧它。然後是唯一的另一個中期 - 我沒有被問到，也許我會。我不會說它是短期的，但中期的問題，當然是鈦。只要地緣政治局勢保持溫和，就沒有問題。如果沒有，我們會受到相當長一段時間的保護，但不會永遠受到保護。

Next, we'll go to Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

接下來，我們將與 Melius Research 一起前往 Rob Spingarn。

Dave, I wanted to go with a high-level question here now that you've been in the seat for a while, recognizing that you've spent most of this time putting out fires. But when we discuss the Boeing investment thesis after a decade of fairly extreme swings in performance, we're often asked, particularly by investors that are returning to the story after an absence, how the culture is changing at Boeing. So how should investors think of you and your team as agents have changed? And in what ways are you improving the culture at Boeing?

戴夫，我想在這裡提出一個高層次的問題，因為你已經坐在座位上一段時間了，認識到你大部分時間都在滅火。但是，在經歷了十年相當極端的業績波動之後，當我們討論波音的投資主題時，我們經常被問到，尤其是那些在缺席後重新回到這個故事的投資者，波音的文化正在發生怎樣的變化。那麼投資者應該如何看待你和你的團隊作為代理人已經發生了變化？您在哪些方面改善了波音公司的文化？

Yes. I mean that's the million-dollar question, and I appreciate you asking it. And that's what we work on every day all day.

是的。我的意思是這是一個價值百萬美元的問題，我很感謝你提出這個問題。這就是我們每天都在做的事情。

I think investors, those same investors, what frustrates them is the unpredictability of our performance in light of those few instances that caused severe pressure on our company. And I will be the first to admit that they were not events caused by the outside world, but unfortunately, missteps inside.

我認為投資者，同樣的投資者，讓他們感到沮喪的是，鑑於對我們公司造成嚴重壓力的少數情況，我們的業績無法預測。我將第一個承認它們不是由外部世界引起的事件，但不幸的是，內部失誤。

So we're doing, I think, what they would want us to do. Our culture is focused on getting as close to our work as we possibly can from the very top of the company through the engineering ranks all the way down through all the support functions that ultimately have to help mechanics on the line stay disciplined, create standard work that's predictable, repeatable, et cetera, safety and quality systems that are reinculcated in every way I can think of into every nook and cranny of the company. And that is literally what we have been working on.

所以我們正在做，我認為，他們希望我們做的事情。我們的文化專注於盡可能接近我們的工作，從公司最高層到工程隊伍，一直到所有支持功能，最終必須幫助生產線上的機械師保持紀律，創造標準工作這是可預測的、可重複的，等等，安全和質量系統以我能想到的每一種方式重新灌輸到公司的每一個角落和縫隙中。這就是我們一直在努力的方向。

So I appreciate the question. I think we're getting much better. In fact, we're getting really good at it. And I think someday, we'll all point to it as a real advantage for The Boeing Company. But I know where we're coming from. And you do, too. Again, I do appreciate the company. Sometimes our vision and our priorities look boring to people. But when you stop and think of where we came from, I'm proud of this team for rallying around exactly that.

所以我很欣賞這個問題。我認為我們正在變得更好。事實上，我們在這方面做得很好。我想有一天，我們都會指出它是波音公司的真正優勢。但我知道我們來自哪裡。你也一樣。再次，我很欣賞這家公司。有時我們的願景和我們的優先事項在人們看來很無聊。但是當你停下來想想我們來自哪裡時，我為這支球隊的團結而感到自豪。

Next, we'll go to Peter Arment with Baird.

接下來，我們將和貝爾德一起去彼得·阿門特。

Dave, maybe just to put a finer point on China MAX kind of deliveries resuming. You sound pretty confident that this could be a first quarter event. So what do we specifically need to see from the Chinese regulator? It sounds like they're doing some test flights over there already. What should we be looking for?

戴夫，也許只是為了更好地說明中國 MAX 類型的交付恢復。你聽起來很有信心這可能是第一季度的事件。那麼我們特別需要從中國監管機構那裡看到什麼？聽起來他們已經在那裡進行了一些試飛。我們應該尋找什麼？

Yes. Thank you. Yes. It's -- again, I don't think this is necessarily in the geopolitical realm as much as it is in the needs of the customers and operations inside of China. What I will say is it has been perfectly predictable and methodical way in which they've returned their fleet to service.

是的。謝謝你。是的。這是 - 再次，我認為這不一定是地緣政治領域，而是中國境內客戶和運營的需求。我要說的是，他們以完全可預測和有條不紊的方式讓他們的艦隊重新投入使用。

They went through the cert process. They reauthorized the airplane to fly. The airlines are warming up the airplanes they already have. As you said, they're taking test flights in a very methodical, intelligent way. And they are beginning to notify us around when they intend to bring it into revenue service.

他們經歷了認證過程。他們重新授權飛機飛行。航空公司正在熱身他們已經擁有的飛機。正如你所說，他們正在以一種非常有條理、聰明的方式進行試飛。當他們打算將其納入收入服務時，他們開始通知我們。

That all has to happen with the airplanes they own. And then deliveries, in my view, will commence. And it is quiet, methodical and as effective way as it has been to date.

這一切都必鬚髮生在他們擁有的飛機上。然後，在我看來，交付將開始。它是一種安靜、有條不紊且與迄今為止一樣有效的方式。

There's nothing that we're involved in that would suggest otherwise. So anyway, I do feel confident only because of every tea leaf I've been able to watch here. And they're following through on, frankly, every commitment they've made.

我們參與的任何事情都不會暗示其他情況。所以無論如何，我之所以有信心，只是因為我能在這裡看到每一片茶葉。坦率地說，他們正在履行他們所做的每一項承諾。

Next, we'll go to Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將與摩根士丹利一起前往 Kristine Liwag。

Brian, thank you for providing the puts and takes and free cash flow for 2022. But could you quantify some of these pieces for the year and the key variables they depend on? I mean, ultimately, the questions I'm getting is, is 2022 free cash flow a smidge over 0? Or is it closer to something like $5 billion?

布賴恩，感謝您提供 2022 年的看跌期權和自由現金流。但是您能否量化其中的一些部分以及它們所依賴的關鍵變量？我的意思是，最終，我得到的問題是，2022 年的自由現金流是否略高於 0？還是更接近 50 億美元？

Yes. It's not a smidge over 0, I promise you that. And we're not going to be as descriptive as you might want. However, as we begin to deliver on these milestones and we start to be able to have the volume improvement from the 737, 787, we know we are going to have accelerated cash flows.

是的。我向你保證，這不是超過 0 的一點點。而且我們不會像您想要的那樣描述性。然而，隨著我們開始實現這些里程碑，並且我們開始能夠從 737 和 787 中獲得銷量提升，我們知道我們將加速現金流。

As I mentioned, first quarter, we know it's going to be usage, but we do expect that there will be a relatively sharp acceleration in the back half of the year as we begin to liquidate this inventory. And then as we exit the year, we're going to be moving to a much more normalized state and then have a meaningful acceleration of cash flow in 2023. And again, what number of billions, too close to call, but it's more than 0, I promise you.

正如我所提到的，第一季度，我們知道這將是使用量，但我們確實預計，隨著我們開始清算這些庫存，今年下半年將會出現相對急劇的加速。然後當我們結束這一年時，我們將進入一個更加正常化的狀態，然後在 2023 年有一個有意義的現金流加速。再說一次，有多少億，太接近了，但它不僅僅是0，我答應你。

Operator, we have time for one last call or one last question.

接線員，我們有時間打最後一個電話或最後一個問題。

Certainly. And that will be from Ken Herbert with RBC.

當然。這將來自 RBC 的 Ken Herbert。

I just wanted to see if we could put a finer point on the 787 and where you are with production today and the inventory drawdown. It looks like you're producing at a lower rate, perhaps 1 or lower a month than the 2 you were at coming out of the third quarter. And obviously, the uptick to 5 sounds maybe a little more cautious than before. Can you just comment on build rates on the 87? And then what the free cash guide implies in terms of the inventory reduction this year?

我只是想看看我們是否可以更詳細地了解 787 以及您今天的生產情況和庫存下降情況。看起來你的生產速度比第三季度的 2 個月低，可能每月 1 個月或更低。顯然，上升到 5 聽起來可能比以前更加謹慎。你能評論一下 87 的構建率嗎？那麼自由現金指南對今年的庫存減少意味著什麼？

Let me just start with the rate. There's not going to be a finer point other than to reemphasize our priorities, which is we don't like carrying a bunch of inventory. That's for sure. We will run our rate as low as we can while we burn our inventory as fast as we can I think is the way to think about it.

讓我從費率開始。除了重新強調我們的優先事項之外，沒有比這更好的一點了，那就是我們不喜歡攜帶一堆庫存。這是肯定的。我們將盡可能低地運行我們的利率，同時盡可能快地消耗我們的庫存，我認為這是考慮它的方式。

And then as the order books fill up and the market gets very active, and I happen to believe it will, then we're going to sort of monitor production rates to make sure we stay ahead of that delivery cycle. So again, I can't give you a finer point on exactly when and how. I will suggest we have a clear priority, which is to burn down that inventory first. Brian, anything you want to add?

然後隨著訂單填滿並且市場變得非常活躍，我碰巧相信它會，然後我們將監控生產率以確保我們保持領先於交付週期。再說一次，我不能給你一個更詳細的時間和方式。我建議我們有一個明確的優先事項，即首先燒掉庫存。布賴恩，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

And there is an assumption that we're going to have some liquidation of inventory for sure on the 787. Stay tuned for the specifics.

並且假設我們肯定會在 787 上進行一些庫存清算。請繼續關注細節。

And that completes The Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining.

至此，波音公司 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議圓滿結束。感謝您的加入。

Appreciate it, everyone.

贊一個，大家。