波音 (BA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session, are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加波音公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。管理層討論和幻燈片演示，以及分析師問答環節，正在互聯網上進行現場直播。 （操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company. Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

在這個時候，關於開場白和介紹，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁馬特韋爾奇先生。韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Boeing's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation through our website at boeing.com. As always, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today.

謝謝你，約翰，大家早上好。歡迎參加波音 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。我是馬特·韋爾奇，今天和我在一起的是波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩；波音公司執行副總裁兼首席財務官布萊恩·韋斯特（Brian West）。提醒一下，您可以通過我們的網站 boeing.com 關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。與往常一樣，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務信息。

Projections, estimates and goals we include in our discussions this morning involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures. Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

我們今天上午討論的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和本網絡演示文稿末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解某些非公認會計原則措施的披露和調節。現在我將把電話轉給 Dave Calhoun。

Matt, thanks. Welcome to everybody. Thanks for joining us. I will acknowledge upfront that our plans for the investor conference middle of next week. We're looking forward to them. We hope we can give some guideposts for the forward look in the Boeing company. So many of our comments today will be a little shorter than usual and focused strictly on the quarter.

馬特，謝謝。歡迎大家。感謝您加入我們。我會提前承認我們計劃在下周中旬舉行的投資者會議。我們期待著他們。我們希望我們能為波音公司的前瞻性提供一些指導。我們今天的許多評論將比平時短一些，並嚴格關注本季度。

This quarter was a big one for us. We hit a marker, a marker we've set since the beginning of our turnaround effort in the beginning of 2020, and that was to generate positive free cash flow. So we generated $2.9 billion in the quarter. That puts us on the path that we projected for 2022, which was positive. So again, a very important accomplishment for us and I think begins the real turning point for the company.

這個季度對我們來說是一個重要的季度。我們達到了一個標記，這是我們自 2020 年初開始扭虧為盈以來設定的一個標記，那就是產生正的自由現金流。因此，我們在本季度創造了 29 億美元。這使我們走上了我們為 2022 年預測的道路，這是積極的。再說一次，對我們來說，一項非常重要的成就，我認為開始了公司真正的轉折點。

At the same time, we took a charge on our fixed-price development contracts. These are contracts that we have talked about now repeatedly on these calls. We believe, as we always do, that the charge that we took is meant to complete these contracts ultimately to deliver them to satisfy customers in the Air Force or the armed forces. And anyway, we're not embarrassed by them. They are what they are, and we intend to deliver against these contracts and satisfy our customers.

同時，我們負責我們的固定價格開發合同。這些是我們現在在這些電話會議上反复討論的合同。我們相信，正如我們一直所做的那樣，我們承擔的費用旨在最終完成這些合同，以交付它們以滿足空軍或武裝部隊的客戶。無論如何，我們並不為他們感到尷尬。它們就是它們，我們打算根據這些合同交付並滿足我們的客戶。

Without a doubt, and you've heard it from all of the earnings calls over the course of the week, the supply chain, inflation, labor shortages, macroeconomic challenges are challenging for everybody. That is reflected in these third quarter calls. Again, the charges in our fixed price development world, et cetera, all of that's embedded. We're not anticipating or suggesting that the supply chain world is going to get much better in the near term. We expect it will continue to be challenged over the course of 2023.

毫無疑問，你已經從本週所有的財報電話會議中聽到了這一點，供應鏈、通貨膨脹、勞動力短缺、宏觀經濟挑戰對每個人來說都是挑戰。這反映在這些第三季度的電話會議中。同樣，我們的固定價格開發世界中的費用等等，所有這些都是嵌入的。我們並不預期或暗示供應鏈世界會在短期內變得更好。我們預計它將在 2023 年繼續受到挑戰。

One of our problems is not demand. Demand is very strong. It's strong across the portfolio of products, and it's strong across the world with all of our customers. Why? Because their demand is strong. Bookings in pretty much every geography is strong with the exception of China. But also there are concerns about the very supply constraints that we're all referring to sort of force them to want to get in line and get their orders in so that they have the lift they need as the world returns to some normal state.

我們的問題之一不是需求。需求非常強勁。它在整個產品組合中都很強大，在我們所有的客戶中也很強大。為什麼？因為他們的需求很強烈。除中國外，幾乎所有地區的預訂量都很強勁。但也有人擔心我們都提到的供應限制，這在某種程度上迫使他們想要排隊並獲得訂單，以便他們在世界恢復正常狀態時獲得所需的提升。

What's our job in this supply-constrained world? We're in the factories, we don't push the system too fast. We slow down when we have to and we try not to compound problems that may arise from the supply chain or from our own shops. We've added more than 10,000 people this year, and we are investing in training and development to accelerate their experience curve and improve our productivity over time. And we're driving stability in the supply chain. We've introduced all kinds of on-site technology, digital tools to watch what they're doing, but also we've added people to those organizations that are more challenged than others. And we've increased inventory, safety stock wherever we can. Truth is it will still take time to normalize. And our objective in the investor conference that lies ahead is to give you that projection as to how and when we think that is likely to happen.

在這個供應受限的世界裡，我們的工作是什麼？我們在工廠裡，我們不會太快地推動系統。我們在必要時放慢腳步，並且盡量不使供應鍊或我們自己的商店可能出現的問題更加複雜。今年我們增加了 10,000 多人，我們正在投資培訓和發展，以加快他們的經驗曲線並隨著時間的推移提高我們的生產力。我們正在推動供應鏈的穩定性。我們引入了各種現場技術、數字工具來觀察他們在做什麼，而且我們還為那些比其他人更具挑戰性的組織增加了人員。我們盡可能增加庫存和安全庫存。事實是，正常化仍需要時間。我們在即將舉行的投資者會議上的目標是向您提供關於我們認為可能發生的方式和時間的預測。

Despite the challenges, I'm very pleased with the progress broadly. Our 87 deliveries have returned. It's a reflection on us focusing on the right things. Strict conformance with respect to our manufacturing processes is very important. We've gotten it right, and the delivery process has started, and so far, so good.

儘管面臨挑戰，但我對取得的廣泛進展感到非常高興。我們的 87 件貨物已退回。這反映了我們專注於正確的事情。嚴格遵守我們的製造流程非常重要。我們做對了，交付過程已經開始，到目前為止，一切都很好。

On the 737 MAX, return to service. Again, philosophy is one at a time. 1 million revenue flights, exceptional schedule reliability, that's what we've experienced. And that is why the folks who have leaned into the MAX continue to lean into the MAX and continue to place orders with us. In total, over the quarter, 227 orders for airplanes, West Jet, UPS, Cargolux, China Airlines, just a few, again, very strong. You probably have seen today, Alaska has upped their commitment to the MAX, and we greatly appreciate it from all of them.

在 737 MAX 上，恢復服務。同樣，哲學是一次一個。 100 萬次收入航班，卓越的時刻表可靠性，這就是我們所經歷的。這就是為什麼那些傾向於 MAX 的人繼續傾向於 MAX 並繼續向我們下訂單的原因。總體而言，本季度共有 227 架飛機訂單，包括西捷航空、UPS、Cargolux、中華航空等少數幾個，再次非常強勁。您今天可能已經看到，Alaska 提高了他們對 MAX 的承諾，我們非常感謝他們所有人。

In a strong demand and yet supply-constrained world, our inventory, the fixed -- finished goods inventory that we have is an asset, not a liability, and we use it to de-risk that delivery outlook. And as for China, we continue to derisk. That's been our objective. We still would like to deliver airplanes to China. We continue to support our customers. We continue to support the regulator. As we all know, the COVID restrictions and policies in China have reduced demand for airplanes in general. And we hope that is what is restricting the acceptance of our -- of the airplanes that they have on our tarmac. But we also have clear eyed about the geopolitical risks that are out there, and we are not going to impart new risks on our investors, and we believe we can derisk what we have.

在需求強勁但供應受限的世界中，我們的庫存，即我們擁有的固定成品庫存是一種資產，而不是一種負債，我們用它來降低交付前景的風險。至於中國，我們繼續冒險。這是我們的目標。我們還是想把飛機運到中國。我們將繼續支持我們的客戶。我們繼續支持監管機構。眾所周知，中國的 COVID 限制和政策總體上減少了對飛機的需求。我們希望這就是限制我們接受他們在我們停機坪上的飛機的原因。但我們也清楚地看到了那裡的地緣政治風險，我們不會給我們的投資者帶來新的風險，我們相信我們可以降低我們所擁有的風險。

We're progressing on our development programs, the -7, the -10, the 777-9 and the -8 freighter. All of these are progressing well. As everybody knows, we are up against a deadline here at the end of the year. We remain confident that we can get an extension of that deadline because this is the safe answer. And we've heard from airlines, we've heard from pilots, we've heard from our workers, associates, and we know that the FAA has been putting in the work to certify these airplanes. So we remain not just hopeful but confident that we can get this across the finish line.

我們正在推進我們的開發計劃，即 -7、-10、777-9 和 -8 貨機。所有這些都進展順利。眾所周知，我們將在今年年底迎來最後期限。我們仍然相信我們可以延長最後期限，因為這是安全的答案。我們從航空公司、飛行員、員工和同事那裡聽到了消息，我們知道 FAA 一直在努力對這些飛機進行認證。因此，我們不僅充滿希望，而且對我們能夠跨越終點線充滿信心。

And then those airplanes, as many of you know, complete that narrow-body portfolio in a way that allows us to compete head-to-head with our important competitor, Airbus. BDS, Boeing Defense, yes, we have these fixed price development challenges. But we have a rich portfolio. We delivered 4 MH-139 Grey Wolf test aircraft to the U.S. Air Force. We received contracts for additional KC-46A tankers for both the U.S. Air Force and the Israeli Air Force. And despite the challenges on our real development programs that the tanker T7 and MQ-25, we still remain confident in the long-term success and contribution to our cash flow.

然後，正如你們許多人所知，這些飛機完善了窄體產品組合，使我們能夠與我們的重要競爭對手空中客車公司正面交鋒。 BDS、波音防務公司，是的，我們面臨這些固定價格開發挑戰。但我們有豐富的投資組合。我們向美國空軍交付了 4 架 MH-139 灰狼試驗機。我們收到了為美國空軍和以色列空軍購買額外 KC-46A 加油機的合同。儘管油輪 T7 和 MQ-25 對我們的實際開發計劃存在挑戰，但我們仍然對長期成功和對我們現金流的貢獻充滿信心。

And then Boeing services, BGS, just another very strong quarter. They're trying to keep up with demand the best they can. They delivered their 100th contracted 737-800 Boeing freighter conversion to AerCap. We've got key awards in both commercial and defense customers and things are going well and margins continue to expand.

然後是波音服務，BGS，又是一個非常強勁的季度。他們正在盡力滿足需求。他們向 AerCap 交付了第 100 架 737-800 波音貨機改裝合同。我們在商業和國防客戶中都獲得了重要獎項，一切進展順利，利潤率繼續擴大。

And then finally, we have not stopped investing in our foundational capabilities. We had some pretty good examples of that over the course of the quarter. We opened 3 advanced facilities across the country, composite fabrication, additive manufacturing and an important autonomy investment alongside MIT just in Cambridge.

最後，我們並沒有停止對基礎能力的投資。在本季度的過程中，我們有一些很好的例子。我們在全國開設了 3 個先進設施，即復合材料製造、增材製造以及與麻省理工學院一起在劍橋進行的一項重要的自主投資。

Also very excited about Wisk's unveiling of the world's first autonomous self-flying 4-seat all electric vertical takeoff and landing air taxi. There's a very bright future ahead for that. And with respect to autonomy and its advancement in the world of certification, it's a very, very important part of our strategy.

對 Wisk 推出世界上第一台自動駕駛 4 座全電動垂直起降空中出租車也感到非常興奮。有一個非常光明的未來。關於自主性及其在認證領域的進步，這是我們戰略中非常非常重要的一部分。

So we're making great progress. I feel good about our turnaround. I do think the cash flow numbers in the quarter are, in fact, a marker for us. We've been focused on it. We will continue to manage the company on the basis of the cash economics that we support our investors with. And that will be that. So I'm happy to turn it over to Brian now for some color on the quarter.

所以我們正在取得很大進展。我對我們的轉變感覺很好。我確實認為本季度的現金流量數字實際上是我們的一個標誌。我們一直專注於它。我們將繼續根據我們支持投資者的現金經濟學來管理公司。就是這樣。所以我很高興現在把它交給布賴恩，以獲得本季度的一些顏色。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Let's jump right in. Cash flow, as Dave mentioned, is our primary financial metric, and it was positive in the quarter. Operating cash flow was $3.2 billion, and free cash flow was $2.9 billion, both up pretty significantly versus both prior year and prior quarter, essentially driven by higher deliveries and some receipt timing. Revenue earnings both impacted by charges in our defense business, where we took a $2.8 billion hit across 5 fixed price development programs, which I'll go into.

謝謝，戴夫，大家早上好。讓我們直接進入。正如戴夫所說，現金流是我們的主要財務指標，並且在本季度是積極的。運營現金流為 32 億美元，自由現金流為 29 億美元，與去年和上一季度相比均顯著增長，主要是受更高的交付量和一些收貨時間的推動。收入收入都受到我們國防業務收費的影響，我們在 5 個固定價格開發計劃中遭受了 28 億美元的損失，我將對此進行介紹。

The macro environment challenges that Dave described required us to make certain adjustments, including a reassessment of future period cost forecast. These adjustments are important to our go-forward momentum as we derisk our defense portfolio and move to more predictable performance. And we still think about our performance in 3 parts and are positioning ourselves for an improving trajectory.

Dave 所描述的宏觀環境挑戰要求我們做出某些調整，包括重新評估未來期間的成本預測。這些調整對我們的前進動力很重要，因為我們會放棄我們的國防投資組合併轉向更可預測的表現。而且我們仍然從三個方面考慮我們的表現，並為改善軌跡定位自己。

First, we have reached important milestones across the business and made progress on commercial deliveries with the resumption of the 787 in August. Also, the 737 MAX return to service is largely complete, and we're derisking the near-term delivery skyline for China.

首先，隨著 8 月份 787 的恢復，我們在整個業務中達到了重要的里程碑，並在商業交付方面取得了進展。此外，737 MAX 的恢復服務已基本完成，我們正在降低中國近期交付天際線的風險。

Next, we started to see improvement in our primary financial metric of free cash flow. This third quarter performance puts us on track to be positive for both the second half and the full year of 2022.

接下來，我們開始看到自由現金流的主要財務指標有所改善。第三季度的表現使我們有望在 2022 年下半年和全年保持積極的態勢。

And finally, as we look to 2023, our operational and financial performance should continue to improve. Now the acceleration will not be as significant as previously anticipated, and our path to recovery is taking a bit longer than expected driven by the challenging macro environment. The longer term, there is a significant opportunity for our company to return to sustainable growth. As we liquidate the 37 and the 87 inventory, we improved execution on a de-risked BBS portfolio and achieve certification on the MAX -7, the -10 and the 777X development programs. We look forward to sharing our plans at our investor conference next week.

最後，展望 2023 年，我們的運營和財務業績應該會繼續改善。現在加速不會像之前預期的那麼顯著，而且在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境的推動下，我們的複甦之路比預期的要長一些。從長遠來看，我們公司有很大的機會恢復可持續增長。隨著我們清理 37 和 87 庫存，我們改進了去風險 BBS 產品組合的執行，並獲得了 MAX -7、-10 和 777X 開發計劃的認證。我們期待在下週的投資者會議上分享我們的計劃。

Before getting into the financials, I want to make a few points on the current business environment. Slide 3. While the turnaround is taking a bit longer, one thing that remains strong is demand for airplanes, as the commercial market recovery is playing out better than expected. We still see overall passenger traffic returning to 2019 levels in the 2023 to 2024 time frame. And although the economic indicators point to challenges ahead, this demand has proven resilient.

在進入金融之前，我想對當前的商業環境提出幾點意見。幻燈片 3。雖然轉機需要更長的時間，但仍然強勁的一件事是對飛機的需求，因為商業市場的複蘇表現好於預期。我們仍然看到在 2023 年至 2024 年的時間範圍內，總體客運量將恢復到 2019 年的水平。儘管經濟指標指向未來的挑戰，但這種需求已被證明具有彈性。

In August, domestic traffic was at 85% of 2019 levels led by the U.S., Europe and Latin America. Going forward, the recovery will be driven by China domestic and international traffic, which remain below 2019 levels at 62% and 67%, respectively. In aggregate, commercial passenger traffic was at 74% of 2019 levels. So even with economic headwinds, we see the strength of demand continuing as air traffic recovers to its historic levels.

8 月，美國、歐洲和拉丁美洲的國內客流量達到 2019 年水平的 85%。展望未來，中國國內和國際客流量將推動復甦，中國國內和國際客流量仍低於 2019 年的水平，分別為 62% 和 67%。總體而言，商業客運量為 2019 年水平的 74%。因此，即使在經濟逆風的情況下，隨著空中交通恢復到歷史水平，我們仍看到需求的強勁勢頭。

In Defense & Space, we see solid long-term markets, both domestically and internationally. In the U.S., there's broad support for increased defense spending in Congress to meet current challenges. And internationally, ongoing global tensions are driving our partners and our allies to announce plans for increased spending and additional capabilities for national defense, and we're working hard to support their needs. In services, our business is well positioned with a broad set of offerings and will continue to benefit from the growing commercial fleet, a robust cargo market and increasing defense budgets.

在國防與航天領域，我們看到了穩固的長期市場，無論是國內還是國際。在美國，國會普遍支持增加國防開支以應對當前的挑戰。在國際上，持續的全球緊張局勢正在推動我們的合作夥伴和我們的盟友宣布增加國防開支和增加國防能力的計劃，我們正在努力支持他們的需求。在服務方面，我們的業務擁有廣泛的產品組合，並將繼續受益於不斷增長的商業船隊、強勁的貨運市場和不斷增加的國防預算。

Turning to the supply chain. Constraints continue to impact production in both our commercial and defense businesses. On the commercial side, we're focused on a few key areas, namely engine deliveries, which is the primary constraint to 737 production rate stabilization and subsequent increases. Customers are counting on us to resolve the situation with our supply chain partners, and we will. We're taking actions to mitigate these impacts and support the supply chain. And as Dave described, we've increased our on-site presence at first tier and sub-tier suppliers to support work movement and address industry-wide shortages.

轉向供應鏈。限制因素繼續影響我們的商業和國防業務的生產。在商業方面，我們專注於幾個關鍵領域，即發動機交付，這是 737 生產率穩定和後續增長的主要製約因素。客戶指望我們與供應鏈合作夥伴解決問題，我們會的。我們正在採取行動減輕這些影響並支持供應鏈。正如 Dave 所描述的，我們增加了在一級和次級供應商的現場服務，以支持工作流動並解決全行業的短缺問題。

And we're utilizing our own internal fabrication for surge capacity and managing safety stock inventory levels and increasing where necessary to protect risk. With overall healthy demand, finished goods inventory and a diverse backlog, we feel well positioned to navigate the current environment and are confident that our product lineup is well suited to meet our customer needs.

我們正在利用我們自己的內部製造來提高容量和管理安全庫存水平，並在必要時增加以保護風險。憑藉整體健康的需求、成品庫存和多樣化的積壓，我們感覺自己處於有利地位，可以駕馭當前環境，並相信我們的產品陣容非常適合滿足客戶的需求。

With that backdrop, let's turn to the financials on Slide 4. Third quarter revenue of $16 billion increased 4% and Core operating earnings were negative $3.1 billion, resulting in a loss per share of $6.18, largely driven by $2.8 billion of defense charges. We generated $3.2 billion of operating cash flow, a significant improvement from the same period last year primarily due to higher commercial airplane deliveries and favorable receipt timing. Also, similar to the same period last year, we benefited from a tax refund of $1.5 billion in the quarter.

在這種背景下，讓我們轉向幻燈片 4 的財務狀況。第三季度收入為 160 億美元，增長 4%，核心營業收入為負 31 億美元，導致每股虧損 6.18 美元，主要受 28 億美元的國防費用推動。我們產生了 32 億美元的運營現金流，與去年同期相比有了顯著改善，這主要是由於商用飛機交付量增加和收貨時機有利。此外，與去年同期相似，我們在本季度受益於 15 億美元的退稅。

Let's move to Commercial Airplanes on Slide 5. Third quarter revenue was $6.3 billion, up 40% primarily driven by the resumption of the 787 and higher 737 deliveries. Operating losses of $0.6 billion and the resulting negative margin rate reflect abnormal costs and period expenses.

讓我們在幻燈片 5 上轉到商用飛機。第三季度收入為 63 億美元，增長 40%，主要是由於 787 和更高的 737 交付的恢復。 6 億美元的經營虧損和由此產生的負利潤率反映了異常成本和期間費用。

On the 87 program, we delivered 9 airplanes in the quarter and have 115 airplanes in inventory. The pace of deliveries from inventory going forward will be based on finishing rework as well as customer fleet planning requirements. We expect most of these airplanes to be delivered over the next 2 years. We continue to produce at low rate and will gradually return to 5 airplanes per month over time. Near term, the supply chain remains a key watch item for 87 production and deliveries. Longer term, with more than 400 airplanes in backlog, we anticipate higher production rates due to the expected wide-body market recovery.

在 87 計劃中，我們在本季度交付了 9 架飛機，並有 115 架飛機庫存。未來庫存的交付速度將基於完成返工以及客戶車隊規劃要求。我們預計這些飛機中的大部分將在未來 2 年內交付。我們繼續低速生產，隨著時間的推移將逐漸恢復到每月 5 架飛機。近期，供應鏈仍然是 87 生產和交付的關鍵觀察項目。長期來看，由於有超過 400 架飛機積壓，我們預計由於寬體飛機市場復甦，生產率會提高。

As customers return to medium-term fleet planning, we continue to have positive discussions with our customers on the 87. We recorded [$303] million of 87 abnormal costs in the quarter, in line with expectations, and we still anticipate a total of about $2 billion, the most will be incurred by the end of 2023. These costs are driven by rework and production rates below 5 per month.

隨著客戶回歸中期機隊規劃，我們繼續與客戶就 87 進行積極討論。我們在本季度記錄了 [3.03 億美元] 的 87 異常成本，符合預期，我們仍然預計總數約為20 億美元，最多將在 2023 年底發生。這些成本是由返工和每月低於 5 次的生產率驅動的。

Moving on to the 37 program. We delivered 88 airplanes in the quarter, below our previous expectations, primarily due to supply chain disruptions, which impacted factory flow time. We continue to work towards stabilizing deliveries. However, given our delivery to date, we now estimate about 375 737 airplanes this year. The monthly delivery trend is expected to remain in the low 30s into next year.

繼續 37 計劃。我們在本季度交付了 88 架飛機，低於我們之前的預期，主要是由於供應鏈中斷影響了工廠的流動時間。我們將繼續努力穩定交付。然而，鑑於我們迄今為止的交付情況，我們現在估計今年大約有 375 737 架飛機。預計到明年，每月交付趨勢將保持在 30 年代的低位。

We ended the quarter with 270 MAX airplanes in inventory, down 20 versus last quarter. There were 35 deliveries out of storage, largely in line with our plan, but we also began positioning for MAX 7 deliveries and built 13 airplanes in the quarter. Of the inventoried airplanes, 138 are for customers in China. We continue to explore options to remarket some of these airplanes as we derisk our near-term delivery plan. Based on our latest assessment of China and the -7 -10 certification time lines, we now expect most of the inventoried airplanes to deliver in 2023 and 2024 with some moving into 2025.

我們在本季度末有 270 架 MAX 飛機的庫存，比上一季度減少了 20 架。有 35 架交付的貨物出庫，基本符合我們的計劃，但我們也開始為 MAX 7 交付進行定位，並在本季度建造了 13 架飛機。在庫存飛機中，有 138 架是為中國客戶提供的。隨著我們取消近期交付計劃的風險，我們將繼續探索對其中一些飛機進行再營銷的選擇。根據我們對中國的最新評估和 -7 -10 認證時間表，我們現在預計大部分庫存飛機將在 2023 年和 2024 年交付，其中一些將進入 2025 年。

Moving on to the 777-9 program. Development efforts are ongoing, and the program time line is unchanged from what we shared last quarter. We still anticipate delivery of the first 777-9 airplane in 2025 and continue to coordinate with the FAA to prioritize resources across our development programs.

繼續執行 777-9 計劃。開發工作正在進行中，計劃時間表與我們上個季度分享的內容沒有變化。我們仍然預計在 2025 年交付第一架 777-9 飛機，並繼續與 FAA 協調，在我們的開發計劃中優先考慮資源。

We booked $111 million of 777X abnormal costs in the third quarter, in line with our expectations, and we still expect to record about $1.5 billion of these costs through 2023, while 777-9 production remains paused. During the quarter, we booked 227 commercial airplane orders, as Dave mentioned, the customers who are proud to serve. In September alone, we received orders for each of our programs, including the 737 MAX, the 767, 787, 777, 777X. And at the end of the third quarter, we had over 4,300 airplanes in backlog valued at $307 billion.

我們在第三季度為 777X 計入了 1.11 億美元的異常成本，符合我們的預期，我們仍預計到 2023 年將記錄約 15 億美元的這些成本，而 777-9 的生產仍將暫停。正如戴夫所說，在本季度，我們預訂了 227 架商用飛機訂單，這些客戶很自豪能為他們服務。僅在 9 月，我們就收到了每個項目的訂單，包括 737 MAX、767、787、777、777X。在第三季度末，我們有超過 4,300 架飛機的積壓，價值 3,070 億美元。

Let's now move to Defense, Space and Security on Slide 6. Third quarter revenue was $5.3 billion down 20%, and operating margin was negative 52.7%. Results were driven by approximately $2.8 billion of losses on certain fixed price development programs. KC-46A and VC-25B made up the bulk of these charges at $1.2 billion and $766 million, respectively. We also recorded losses on the T-7A, MQ-25 in commercial crew programs and saw pressures across other programs. These losses reflect a comprehensive review of program financial estimates. While some changes resulted from new information or developments during the quarter, others were the result of our most recent assessment of estimated future performance. Adjustments were primarily due to higher estimated manufacturing and supply chain costs as well as technical challenges, which are expected to continue longer than anticipated.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 6 上的國防、空間和安全。第三季度收入為 53 億美元，下降 20%，營業利潤率為負 52.7%。結果是由於某些固定價格開發計劃損失約 28 億美元。 KC-46A 和 VC-25B 佔這些費用的大部分，分別為 12 億美元和 7.66 億美元。我們還在商業船員計劃中記錄了 T-7A、MQ-25 的損失，並看到其他計劃的壓力。這些損失反映了對計劃財務估計的全面審查。雖然一些變化是由於本季度的新信息或發展而導致的，但其他變化是我們最近對估計的未來業績進行評估的結果。調整主要是由於較高的估計製造和供應鏈成本以及技術挑戰，預計這些挑戰的持續時間將超過預期。

The cash impact of the losses we recorded year-to-date are now heavily weighted in the near term, resulting in a cash flow usage at BDS for both 2022 and 2023. While current performance doesn't reflect where we'd like to be, for sure, we're focused on driving execution stability. These programs have an outsized impact on BDS margins and will be key to margin recovery in future periods.

我們年初至今記錄的虧損對現金的影響現在在短期內得到了很大的重視，導致 BDS 在 2022 年和 2023 年都使用現金流量。雖然目前的業績並不能反映我們希望達到的水平，當然，我們專注於提高執行穩定性。這些計劃對 BDS 利潤率產生巨大影響，並將成為未來期間利潤率恢復的關鍵。

On the demand side, we received $5 billion in orders during the quarter, including tanker awards from both the U.S. and Israel, resulting in BDS backlog of $55 billion. Additionally, the Apache helicopter has been selected by the Polish military.

在需求方面，我們在本季度收到了 50 億美元的訂單，其中包括來自美國和以色列的油輪訂單，導致 BDS 積壓了 550 億美元。此外，阿帕奇直升機已被波蘭軍方選中。

Now let's turn to Global Services results on Slide 7. The Global Services business had another strong quarter primarily driven by our parts and distribution business. Third quarter revenue was $4.4 billion up 5%, and operating margin was 16.5%. Results were driven by higher commercial volume and favorable mix partially offset by lower government volume. We received $5 billion in orders during the quarter, including a tanker support contract for the Italian Air Force and an F/A-18 depot expansion contract. The BGS backlog is $19 billion.

現在讓我們看看幻燈片 7 上的全球服務業績。全球服務業務在我們的零部件和分銷業務的推動下又迎來了一個強勁的季度。第三季度收入為 44 億美元，增長 5%，營業利潤率為 16.5%。結果是由較高的商業交易量和有利的組合推動的，部分抵消了較低的政府交易量。我們在本季度收到了 50 億美元的訂單，其中包括意大利空軍的加油機支持合同和 F/A-18 倉庫擴建合同。 BGS 的待辦事項為 190 億美元。

With highly valued commercial capabilities and support for our defense portfolio, our service business is positioned to see continued growth. Based on what we've seen so far this year, we anticipate healthy total services top line growth for 2022 and similar growth in 2023.

憑藉高度重視的商業能力和對我們國防產品組合的支持，我們的服務業務有望實現持續增長。根據我們今年迄今為止所看到的情況，我們預計 2022 年總服務收入將保持健康增長，2023 年將出現類似增長。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 and cover cash and debt. We ended the third quarter with strong liquidity with $14.3 billion of cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet, an improvement of $2.9 billion since the end of the second quarter driven by free, cash flow generation. During the quarter, due to our improving cash flow and business outlook, we chose to reduce the size of our revolving credit facility capacity from $14.7 billion to $12 billion, which remains undrawn.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 並涵蓋現金和債務。我們在第三季度末流動性強勁，資產負債表上有 143 億美元的現金和有價證券，在自由現金流的推動下，自第二季度末以來增加了 29 億美元。在本季度，由於我們不斷改善的現金流和業務前景，我們選擇將循環信貸額度的規模從 147 億美元減少到 120 億美元，但仍未提取。

Year-to-date operating cash flow was a generation of $55 million, and free cash flow usage year-to-date was $841 million. We expect our primary financial metric free cash flow to be positive for the fourth quarter and the full year, driven by commercial deliveries.

年初至今的經營現金流為 5500 萬美元，年初至今的自由現金流使用量為 8.41 億美元。在商業交付的推動下，我們預計第四季度和全年的主要財務指標自由現金流為正。

Our debt balance is consistent with the end of the last quarter at $57.2 billion. Our investment-grade credit rating is a priority, and we remain committed to reducing debt levels through strong cash flow generation over time.

我們的債務餘額為 572 億美元，與上一季度末一致。我們的投資級信用評級是當務之急，我們仍然致力於通過隨著時間的推移產生強勁的現金流來降低債務水平。

In conclusion, while we have more work to do, we're executing on our turnaround, and we've come quite a long way over the last 3 years. We remain focused on our own performance and taking the right actions to drive stability and growth for the future. We also continue to invest in key capabilities that will lay the foundation for the future. And through it all, our team is demonstrating exceptional resilience and dedication. More work ahead, but we're confident that we're on the right path. With that, over to Dave for closing comments.

總而言之，雖然我們還有更多工作要做，但我們正在扭轉局面，在過去 3 年裡我們取得了長足的進步。我們仍然專注於我們自己的表現，並採取正確的行動來推動未來的穩定和增長。我們還將繼續投資於為未來奠定基礎的關鍵能力。通過這一切，我們的團隊表現出非凡的韌性和奉獻精神。未來還有更多工作要做，但我們相信我們正走在正確的道路上。有了這個，給戴夫結束評論。

Yes, I'll keep it short and sweet. We're on a turnaround. We've been on a turnaround. We've made very important progress with our regulators. We've made very important product -- progress with our customers and even more importantly, the flying public. And now we're wrestling through supply chain constraints. And when we get through it all, we'll get back to normal and ultimately deliver what our shareholders are expecting. So I'll leave it at that and open up to questions.

是的，我會保持簡短和甜蜜。我們正在轉機。我們一直在轉機。我們與監管機構取得了非常重要的進展。我們製作了非常重要的產品——與我們的客戶一起進步，更重要的是，與飛行的公眾一起進步。現在我們正在努力克服供應鏈的限制。當我們完成這一切時，我們將恢復正常並最終實現我們股東的期望。因此，我將保留它並提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Dave and Brian, you started the call with comments around the supply chain challenges that you're seeing, and you talked about it lasting through 2023. And it doesn't seem inventory is the issue, and it's mostly engine. So what sort of steps is the team taking to work with suppliers to resolve these risks? And how do you expect it to impact the output and, ultimately, deliveries? I think you mentioned low 30s through next year on the next. Historically, you've said 8 to 10 out of inventory. So how do we think about the production pipeline there?

戴夫和布賴恩，你們在電話會議開始時圍繞你們所看到的供應鏈挑戰發表了評論，你們談到它會持續到 2023 年。而且似乎庫存不是問題，而主要是引擎。那麼團隊採取了哪些步驟與供應商合作來解決這些風險？您預計它將如何影響產出，並最終影響交付？我想你提到明年到明年的 30 歲以下。從歷史上看，您曾說過庫存有 8 到 10 個。那麼我們如何看待那裡的生產管道呢？

Well, that -- let me start with steps. So I'll let Brian maybe quantify best he can. But I -- the steps are they're as clear as they can be. We've been talking about this for quite a while. We get on regular calls with our counterparts at the engine suppliers. And as you know, in our case, it's predominantly CFM and then GE broadly across the wide-body fleet, et cetera. So we literally go down through all of those schedules. It inevitably comes down to castings and the support that they get from the 2 big casting suppliers.

好吧，那 - 讓我從步驟開始。所以我會讓布賴恩盡可能地量化。但我 - 步驟是他們盡可能清楚。我們已經談論這個問題已經有一段時間了。我們與發動機供應商的同行定期通話。如您所知，在我們的案例中，它主要是 CFM，然後是 GE，廣泛用於寬體機隊等。因此，我們確實完成了所有這些時間表。它不可避免地歸結為鑄件和他們從兩大鑄件供應商那裡獲得的支持。

So the best thing I can say now is that we are clearly on the same page, ourselves and our suppliers. We are taking steps to increase at a very gradual and, I hope, a disciplined way, the increase in rate with respect to castings and then ultimately from engines to us. I don't want to predict outcomes on that front. I think the most important thing is we're not being surprised as frequently as we used to be. And I do think that the engine suppliers are getting their heads their arms around things in a much better way than they had previously.

所以我現在能說的最好的事情是，我們自己和我們的供應商顯然是一致的。我們正在採取措施，以一種非常漸進的方式，我希望，一種有紀律的方式，增加鑄件的速度，然後最終從發動機到我們。我不想預測這方面的結果。我認為最重要的是我們不再像以前那樣經常感到驚訝。而且我確實認為發動機供應商正在以比以前更好的方式更好地解決問題。

So that's really the situation as it is. I am confident that the industry will step up, but it will take more time than I probably had hoped when we started these conversations. And I suspect it won't be until we get to the sort of end of next year before we can really make sizable rate increases with respect to that constraint. Brian?

所以情況就是這樣。我相信這個行業會加快步伐，但這需要的時間可能比我們開始這些對話時所希望的要多。而且我懷疑要到明年年底，我們才能真正針對該限製做出可觀的加息。布賴恩？

And what I would say is that my comment on being in the low 30s, year-to-date, we've been in the low 30s. And as we turn the quarter into next year, that all of a sudden is going to snap up to a 40 type number. So it's going into the year. We're going to be constrained, as Dave mentioned, largely about the engines, and it will be in that low 30s. But as we get through next year, that rate will go up. And we'll talk a lot more about that next week.

我要說的是，我對處於 30 歲以下的評論，年初至今，我們一直處於 30 歲以下。當我們把這個季度變成明年的時候，突然之間就會搶購到 40 個類型的數字。所以它進入了一年。正如戴夫所說，我們將受到限制，主要是關於引擎，它將在 30 多歲時受到限制。但隨著我們明年的到來，這個比率會上升。我們將在下週對此進行更多討論。

Next, we go to Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們與 Wolfe Research 一起前往 Myles Walton。

I'm wondering on the defense charge. Obviously, we've gone through a number of these, but they sort of keep growing in magnitude. And was there anything different, trip wire-wise that triggered the size and expansiveness of this charge? And I know you gave more color on the slip-out of the tanker, which seems to continue to happen. But maybe if -- whether it was trip wire, number one. Number two, this forward losses that have accumulated on the balance sheet, the size of the headwind in '23 versus what you experienced in '22 would be helpful.

我想知道辯護指控。顯然，我們已經經歷了其中的一些，但它們的規模一直在增長。有沒有什麼不同的，觸發這種充電的規模和擴展性的線路方式？而且我知道你在油輪的滑出上賦予了更多的色彩，這似乎還在繼續發生。但也許如果 - 無論是絆線，第一。第二，資產負債表上累積的這種遠期損失，23 年逆風的大小與 22 年所經歷的逆風大小將有所幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Myles. Let me get to the last part. It's going to be about the same in terms of the headwind, to answer your last comment. Our BDS portfolio, the 85% of the business is doing pretty well. It's these fixed-price development programs that, unfortunately, we're working our way through. We had to account for recent performance, including a reassessment of our forecast cost to complete. There's no doubt about it. The biggest impact was the tanker, as you mentioned.

是的。謝謝，邁爾斯。讓我進入最後一部分。就逆風而言，這將是大致相同的，以回答您的最後評論。我們的 BDS 產品組合，85% 的業務都做得很好。不幸的是，我們正在努力完成這些固定價格的開發計劃。我們必須考慮最近的表現，包括重新評估我們完成的預測成本。毫無疑問。正如你提到的，最大的影響是油輪。

At $1.2 billion, it was driven by 2 things. The supply chain constraints and specifically part shortages have been persisting and they likely will persist longer than we had contemplated. And then two, this labor instability. As you know, all airplane programs contemplate a learning curve improvement over time. And we adjusted our assumptions because labor stability is an issue that is likely to continue into the future. We can hire, it's getting the workforce trained and up to speed that we had to account for in this particular period. We applied the similar framework to the VC-25B, where the labor stability issues are magnified because of the requirement to get secured -- security clearances. And that also contributed to schedule shifts.

它以 12 億美元的價格受到兩件事的推動。供應鏈限制，特別是零件短缺一直存在，而且可能會比我們預期的持續時間更長。然後是兩個，這種勞動力不穩定。如您所知，所有飛機項目都考慮隨著時間的推移學習曲線的改進。我們調整了我們的假設，因為勞動力穩定性是一個可能會持續到未來的問題。我們可以僱傭，讓員工接受培訓並加快速度，這是我們在這個特定時期必須考慮的。我們將類似的框架應用於 VC-25B，由於需要獲得安全許可，勞動力穩定性問題被放大了。這也導致了日程安排的變化。

So those are the 2 big ones. And it's just at this moment, the provision reflects what we think is likely to happen in front of us. The other bucket really relates to what I would call true development, which is MQ-25, T-7 and commercial crew. We did adjust for similar macro constraints were needed. But there's also a recognition. There's technical challenges that we work our night through and sometimes impact schedule. But overall, we feel very confident about those programs, long term. And the benefits that we'll accrue once we get them out in the market.

所以這是兩個大的。就在此時，該條款反映了我們認為可能發生在我們面前的事情。另一個桶真的與我所說的真正的發展有關，即 MQ-25、T-7 和商業機組。我們確實需要針對類似的宏觀約束進行調整。但也有認同。我們通宵工作會遇到技術挑戰，有時還會影響日程安排。但總的來說，從長遠來看，我們對這些計劃非常有信心。一旦我們將它們推向市場，我們將獲得的好處。

So there's no doubt that we derisk these programs. Now the 2 big ones for the next 2 years, and I'm not suggesting perfection, but we definitely lowered the risk profile. And for the smaller programs, in some cases, we derisked even longer. I think the thing we have to keep in mind is that our mandate is to stabilize and now deliver very important products to our customers who need them. Anyway.

因此，毫無疑問，我們會取消這些程序。現在是未來 2 年的兩大巨頭，我並不是說完美，但我們肯定降低了風險狀況。對於較小的項目，在某些情況下，我們的風險甚至更長。我認為我們必須牢記的是，我們的任務是穩定並現在向需要它們的客戶提供非常重要的產品。反正。

Okay. And then just a clarification on the tax refund. You've had one last year this year. Do you anticipate another one next year, no?

好的。然後只是對退稅的澄清。今年你去年有過一次。你預計明年還有一個，不是嗎？

No.

不。

Next question is from David Strauss with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Brian, you made the comment that I believe the recovery is not accelerating as fast as you expected. I'm sure you'll give us a lot more on this next week, but maybe some broad strokes as to what that means in terms of the trajectory of free cash flow generation from here in your ability to delever as you have a fair amount of maturities coming due in the first half of next year?

布賴恩，你發表評論說，我認為複蘇沒有你預期的那麼快。我相信你會在下週給我們更多關於這方面的信息，但也許就這對自由現金流產生的軌跡而言意味著什麼意味著你有能力去槓桿，因為你有相當數量明年上半年到期的債券有多少？

So I'd answer that question, we're confident that we will be able to satisfy the maturities in front of us. We'll talk a lot more about that. But given the fact that where we ended the quarter, with our cash balance, $14-plus billion plus being able to be cash flow positive in the fourth quarter, that's not a concern. In terms of the rate of change, we have a supply chain, as Dave mentioned, that we've been dealing with, and that's been reflected in our commercial deliveries through the course of the year. And we're working our best to stabilize and get more predictable.

所以我會回答這個問題，我們相信我們將能夠滿足我們面前的成熟期。我們將對此進行更多討論。但鑑於我們在本季度結束時的現金餘額超過 14 億美元，而且能夠在第四季度實現正現金流，這不是問題。就變化率而言，正如戴夫所說，我們有一個供應鏈，我們一直在處理，這反映在我們全年的商業交付中。我們正在盡最大努力穩定並變得更加可預測。

But while it may not be quite the rate of acceleration going forward, momentum is going to improve. It just could take a little bit longer, and we're going to share a lot more about that with you next week. But in terms of our liquidity position, what's in front of us, high degree of confidence.

但是，雖然這可能不是前進的加速度，但勢頭將會改善。這可能需要更長的時間，我們將在下週與您分享更多相關信息。但就我們的流動性頭寸而言，擺在我們面前的是高度的信心。

Okay. Quick follow-up. The airplanes that you have in inventory for China, how many of those have you remarketed at this point?

好的。快速跟進。您在中國庫存的飛機，目前您重新銷售了多少？

Well, there's active discussions with customers about that topic. More to come in terms of things getting finalized, but it's an active discussion. So that we can no longer defer that decision and actually start to think about how we liquidate that in terms of working capital improvement and cash flow. More to come, and we'll keep you updated.

好吧，與客戶就該主題進行了積極討論。關於最終確定的事情還有更多，但這是一個積極的討論。所以我們不能再推遲這個決定，實際上開始考慮我們如何在營運資本改善和現金流方面清算它。更多內容即將發布，我們會及時通知您。

Next, we go to Peter Arment with Baird.

接下來，我們和貝爾德一起去彼得·阿門特。

Brian, Dave, maybe I could just circle back on the China question that David was just talking about. Have you seen any kind of positive movement from customers over there regarding wanting the MAX? And right now, you're up to 51% of the store fleet is tied to China with 138 aircraft. And just how you're thinking about that because that obviously that percentage is going to continue to grow.

布賴恩，戴夫，也許我可以回到戴維剛剛談到的中國問題上。你有沒有看到那裡的客戶對 MAX 有任何積極的要求？而現在，多達 51% 的商店機隊與中國相關聯，擁有 138 架飛機。以及您是如何考慮的，因為顯然該百分比將繼續增長。

Yes. So I'll start with my hope. My hope is that these 2 big geopolitical forces get together and endorse free trade again and COVID policy ultimately lightens sometime in the future in China so that they can take more deliveries of airplanes. So we we're going to keep supporting our customers, keep supporting their regulator every step of the way. But we are also going to take steps to derisk. I have not gotten a single signal. And I'm surprised by it, they're going to take deliveries in the near term. So we are going to continue. We're going to -- we have begun and we're going to continue to remarket these airplanes as we move forward, and we're confident that there's a market for it not a little market but a big market. In some ways, there are a lot of ways we could take advantage of it. I would prefer not to take advantage of it.

是的。所以我將從我的希望開始。我希望這兩大地緣政治力量再次聚在一起，再次支持自由貿易，而在未來的某個時候，中國的新冠病毒政策最終會放寬，這樣他們就可以接收更多的飛機。因此，我們將繼續支持我們的客戶，在每一步都繼續支持他們的監管機構。但我們也將採取措施去冒險。我沒有收到任何信號。我對此感到驚訝，他們將在短期內收貨。所以我們要繼續。我們將——我們已經開始並且隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續對這些飛機進行再營銷，我們相信它的市場不是一個小市場，而是一個大市場。在某些方面，我們可以通過很多方式利用它。我寧願不利用它。

I'd prefer to just reinstate deliveries with our China customers. But anyway, that's the course we're on. It hasn't really changed much. But it is really hard for me to find signals that things are going to change in China and move in our direction. So hopefully, that will give you everything you need here in terms of the way we're likely to move.

我寧願只恢復與我們的中國客戶的交付。但無論如何，這就是我們要走的路線。它並沒有真正改變太多。但我真的很難找到信號表明中國的情況會發生變化並朝著我們的方向發展。因此，希望這將為您提供您在我們可能移動的方式方面所需的一切。

And just as a follow-up, Brian, just the 8 to 10 out of storage, is that still a good number on a monthly basis?

就像後續行動一樣，布賴恩，只有 8 到 10 個存儲空間，每月仍然是一個不錯的數字嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

You mentioned on the call that your primary focus metric is going to be free cash flow. In the past, focusing on free cash flow got the company to where it is today that didn't end very pretty. How are you viewing that differently than how it was viewed in the past? Dave, you were on the Board when a lot of the decisions were made in the past. So what's -- how are you going to view this cash focus different than you did, call it.

您在電話會議上提到，您的主要關注指標將是自由現金流。過去，專注於自由現金流使公司走到了今天，但結局並不美好。你如何看待它與過去的看法不同？戴夫，在過去做出許多決定時，您是董事會成員。那麼是什麼 - 你將如何看待這種現金焦點與你所做的不同，稱之為。

Yes. Ron, I'm not going to comment on the past. I'm not sure that's helpful to anybody. Our need to focus on free cash flow is a result of having taken a significant amount of debt on in light of the crisis that we had, some self-inflected. Some definitely COVID related as it relates to the marketplace and all the things that we've had to contend with.

是的。羅恩，我不打算評論過去。我不確定這對任何人都有幫助。我們之所以需要關注自由現金流，是因為我們因危機而承擔了大量債務，其中一些是自我影響的。有些肯定與 COVID 相關，因為它與市場以及我們必須應對的所有事情有關。

So we took on a lot of debt. Shareholders told us it would be great if you got rid of that debt sooner rather than later. And so we've been focused on free cash flow. It is a great metric, period, in terms of how we measure all of our people and the work that we're doing. It does not suggest that we have stopped investing in new capabilities that will ultimately differentiate this company and bring it right back to the leadership role that's always enjoyed.

所以我們承擔了很多債務。股東們告訴我們，如果你能盡快擺脫債務，那就太好了。所以我們一直專注於自由現金流。就我們如何衡量我們所有的員工和我們正在做的工作而言，這是一個很好的衡量標準。這並不意味著我們已經停止投資新的能力，這些新能力最終將使這家公司與眾不同，並使其重新回到一直享有的領導角色。

So I'm probably not going to take the bait. I do have confidence that we are doing exactly what we need to be doing, and the free cash flow metric is a very clear indicator of performance not just in the near term but also the medium and long term. So I'm sorry, but that's the answer.

所以我可能不會上鉤。我確實有信心我們正在做我們需要做的事情，而且自由現金流指標是一個非常明確的績效指標，不僅在短期內，而且在中長期內也是如此。所以我很抱歉，但這就是答案。

No, that's fine. And if I may, just a quick follow-on. Of the 787s you have in inventory, can you give us a sense on how many are like ready to be delivered, how many have to be depickled, how complicated a process that is?

不，沒關係。如果可以的話，只是快速跟進。在您庫存的 787 中，您能否告訴我們有多少已經準備好交付，有多少需要去醃製，這是一個多麼複雜的過程？

Well, Thanks, Ron. They all have to go through a prescribed set of rework. We've been very clear on that. And we've contemplated what that is going to take and now it's up to our great team in Charleston and in Everett to get that work done. And it's going -- well, it's early innings, but it's going well, and we have high confidence that they will get done what they need to do to get those inventoried airplanes in the customers' hands over the next 2 years.

嗯，謝謝，羅恩。他們都必須經過一組規定的返工。我們對此非常清楚。我們已經考慮了這將採取什麼措施，現在由我們在查爾斯頓和埃弗雷特的偉大團隊來完成這項工作。而且它正在發展 - 好吧，它是早期的一局，但它進展順利，我們非常有信心他們將完成他們需要做的事情，以便在未來 2 年內將這些庫存飛機交付給客戶。

Next, we'll go to Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將與摩根大通一起前往塞思·塞夫曼。

I just wanted to dig in a little bit more on this issue of engines and castings. LEAP deliveries were up significantly in the third quarter. And it sounds like they see things getting better. I haven't gotten the impression from Airbus that they're expecting quite the pressures next year that you are. It seems like they expect that things are getting better. Is that because most of the leads are going there and you guys have to wait longer? Or is there more to it? Or are these increasing CFM deliveries? Is that not really enough to help you guys?

我只是想在引擎和鑄件這個問題上再深入一點。 LEAP 交付量在第三季度顯著增長。聽起來他們看到事情變得更好了。我沒有從空中客車公司那裡得到印象，他們預計明年會有很大的壓力。似乎他們期望事情會變得更好。是不是因為大部分線索都去那裡了，你們必須等待更長時間？或者還有更多？還是這些增加的 CFM 交付？這還不足以幫助你們嗎？

Yes. So just in context, things are getting better. They are getting your hands around things and they're beginning to project forward. The real issue for us is simply when I refer to constraints, it's because we have such huge demand for the airplanes that we wish we could do double the rates. That is why we will refer to this as a constraint and a difficulty. The measurement of where engines are going with respect to Airbus versus us is the easiest thing in the world to measure. And so we're well aware of it, and we don't see any indication that one's being favored over another.

是的。因此，就上下文而言，情況正在好轉。他們正在處理事情，他們開始向前推進。對我們來說，真正的問題只是當我提到限制時，這是因為我們對飛機的需求如此之大，以至於我們希望我們可以將費率提高一倍。這就是為什麼我們將其稱為約束和困難。測量發動機相對於空客與我們的對比是世界上最容易測量的事情。所以我們很清楚這一點，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明一個人比另一個人更受青睞。

And then with respect to maybe suggestions that they're not having any trouble, that's not what the industry tells us. And frankly, that's up for them to explain and to all of you, and I'm sure they will. So I'm not worried about this as the industry favoring one over the other. It's too easy for both sides to measure and to hold people accountable. And yes, it's improving, but it's nowhere near where we all want it to be because the demand or demand on our airplanes is just so strong. Right.

然後關於他們可能沒有任何麻煩的建議，這不是行業告訴我們的。坦率地說，這需要他們向你們所有人解釋，我相信他們會的。所以我並不擔心這一點，因為這個行業偏向於另一個。雙方都太容易衡量和追究人們的責任。是的，它正在改善，但離我們都希望它達到的水平還很遠，因為對我們飛機的需求或需求是如此強勁。正確的。

Okay. Just to be clear then, it is the engine though that is preventing Boeing from delivering 737s off the line between, let's say, the expected pace of 20 a month to be at a total delivery pace of low 30s versus the nominal production rate of 31 a month. So they're only able to get you engines to deliver at roughly 20 planes per month or so.

好的。需要明確的是，雖然是發動機阻止了波音公司交付 737 飛機，但假設每月 20 架的預期交付速度低於 30 架的總交付速度，而名義生產率為 31 架一個月。所以他們只能讓你的引擎每月交付大約 20 架飛機。

Yes. We're short of engines. We have a clear picture of what it's going to take to make it up, and we'll get back on rate. But yes, the answer is yes.

是的。我們缺少引擎。我們清楚地知道彌補它需要做些什麼，我們會恢復速度。但是，是的，答案是肯定的。

And next, we'll go to Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將與高盛一起去諾亞波波納克。

A lot to work through, but it seems like what underpins some large portion of your challenges is labor availability, both for yourself, for the supply chain. It seems like it's behind a decent amount of the defense charges. Can you put some numbers on it? How many people do you need to hire? How far into that have you broken? When you say it takes time to get somebody trained and seasoned, how long does that take? And do you have those numbers in the castings part of the supply chain? I mean how many people do they need to hire? And how far along are they? And where are these people going to come from given the macro level openings versus workers' gap?

有很多工作要做，但似乎支撐你大部分挑戰的是勞動力的可用性，無論是對你自己還是對供應鏈。似乎它背後有相當數量的辯護費用。你能在上面寫一些數字嗎？你需要雇傭多少人？你已經打破了多遠？當你說讓某人受過訓練和經驗豐富需要時間時，那需要多長時間？你在供應鏈的鑄件部分有這些數字嗎？我的意思是他們需要雇用多少人？他們走了多遠？鑑於宏觀層面的職位空缺與工人的差距，這些人將來自哪裡？

Well, that's a big complex and macro question, and I'll start with us. We have brought on 10,000 people. We are at a head count level that we think can handle rate increases and all the things that we need inside our own shop. We have significant training and development programs and investments that are being made as we speak, so that we are productive with the introduction of all of these new people.

嗯，這是一個複雜而宏觀的大問題，我將從我們開始。我們帶來了 10,000 人。我們的員工人數達到了我們認為可以處理加價以及我們在自己的商店內需要的所有東西的水平。在我們發言時，我們正在進行重要的培訓和發展計劃和投資，因此我們在引入所有這些新人時富有成效。

I don't have a number with respect to all of the supply chain constraints and labor shortages that they might have. But a lot of our constraints in -- with those suppliers that represent constraints are labor related. Some like in the casting world, are a little more labor and experience related because, you may know in the casting world, that is not a simple process. It's not just bring in people and start them up. There's a real learning curve and cycle that is needed to sort of ramp up capacity.

我沒有關於他們可能擁有的所有供應鏈限制和勞動力短缺的數字。但是我們的很多限制——那些代表限制的供應商都與勞動力有關。有些像在鑄造界，更多的勞動和經驗相關，因為，你可能知道在鑄造界，這不是一個簡單的過程。這不僅僅是引入人員並啟動他們。需要一個真正的學習曲線和周期來提高容量。

So I can't -- I don't have a sort of big number for you. I wish I did. I know this. All of us, all of us in this industry are wrestling through these constraints. We try to compare notes. We're trying to help our suppliers on the commodity side with our own contracts and the application of those contracts to their needs. And then on the labor side, anything that we can do to help them find people, that's what we do. And we often second or send our own people out there to help them.

所以我不能——我沒有一個大的數字給你。但願我做了，可惜我沒有。我知道這個。我們所有人，我們這個行業的所有人都在努力克服這些限制。我們嘗試比較筆記。我們正試圖通過我們自己的合同以及將這些合同應用於他們的需求來幫助我們在商品方面的供應商。然後在勞動力方面，我們可以做的任何事情來幫助他們找到人，這就是我們所做的。我們經常支持或派我們自己的人去幫助他們。

So it's -- this is just what we're in. I think it's going to take probably all of next year before things really do begin to stabilize because we begin to see layoffs in other industries. We definitely feel that in the software world. We're not having any kind of trouble bringing in the engineering resources that we need, particularly as it relates to software development because the rest of the industry that competes with us is beginning to soften considerably. So I wish I had a big specific number and an easy resolution. I don't. This is what we're in or we're going to struggle through all year next year.

所以它 - 這就是我們所處的情況。我認為可能需要明年所有時間才能真正開始穩定，因為我們開始看到其他行業的裁員。在軟件世界中，我們絕對有這種感覺。我們在引進我們需要的工程資源方面沒有任何麻煩，尤其是在軟件開發方面，因為與我們競爭的其他行業開始顯著軟化。所以我希望我有一個很大的具體數字和一個簡單的解決方案。我不。這就是我們現在的處境，否則明年我們將整年都在掙扎。

Our next question is from Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

Dave, a couple for you. You've said numerous times today that demand is not the issue. So I was going to ask if you could talk about the developing wide-body cycle and the environment for that. And could it mitigate some of the narrow-body issues in China, in other words, selling wide-bodies into China? And how might that influence your rate plan for 87 and 777 freighter?

戴夫，給你一對。你今天已經多次說過需求不是問題。所以我想問你是否可以談談發展中的寬體循環和環境。它能否緩解中國的一些窄體問題，換句話說，向中國銷售寬體？這對您的 87 和 777 貨機價格計劃有何影響？

It's a great question. Number one, I -- the wide-body world is heating up. There are some significant orders out there that we're all competing for. So that's just a reflection of the markets that are returning, largely in an international base, but a lot of domestic carriers as well. So anyway, a big robust. The answer on China is just as you're suggesting and the premise that underlies it, which is -- that is the airplane they are going to likely need from us more than any other. They don't have a domestic alternative. And I don't believe that a single provider from France can meet those requirements.

這是一個很好的問題。第一，我——寬體世界正在升溫。我們都在競爭一些重要的訂單。所以這只是對正在回歸的市場的反映，主要是在國際基地，但也有很多國內運營商。所以無論如何，一個大的健壯。關於中國的答案正如你所建議的那樣，以及它背後的前提，那就是——他們可能比其他任何人都更需要我們的飛機。他們沒有國內的替代品。而且我不相信來自法國的單一供應商可以滿足這些要求。

So -- and we do get orders, but they're -- I put them in the incremental category for airplanes, large wide-bodies, freighters in particular, from China. Does that ramp up? It's not something we're counting on, but it could. And if it does, that will compete for a very crowded skyline. So again, if China really does rebound and we can get the geopolitical tensions to come down somewhat, that's going to present another challenge for us on the demand and the supply front but one we would welcome and probably be upside to whatever guidance we provide next week.

所以——我們確實收到了訂單，但它們是——我把它們歸為來自中國的飛機、大型寬體飛機、特別是貨機的增量類別。這會加速嗎？這不是我們指望的東西，但它可以。如果確實如此，那將爭奪一個非常擁擠的天際線。再說一次，如果中國真的反彈並且我們可以讓地緣政治緊張局勢有所緩和，那將在需求和供應方面給我們帶來另一個挑戰，但我們會歡迎並且可能會比我們接下來提供的任何指導都有利星期。

Okay. And just to clarify, a slightly different topic. How does this BDS review differ from prior reviews? How confident are you that you've captured everything here?

好的。只是為了澄清，一個稍微不同的話題。此次 BDS 審查與之前的審查有何不同？你有多自信你已經捕捉到了這裡的一切？

(inaudible) I'll start, and then I'll let Brian into talk. So the best, I mean, fact set that we can give is, number one, we're getting closer to the end of these programs. So we're getting work done. We know more. We see more. We're also running out of time with respect to learning curves. There's no time to develop learning curves. They take a couple of years. We don't have a couple of years. We're -- so we don't have any baked-in learning curves anymore. We are simply saying these supply constrained -- supply constraints that we're facing today will not end until we finish. So we're trying to assess these programs with real clarity and realism with respect to what we're experiencing now and not projecting significant improvements in the future. So, it's -- for me, that's sort of the set around it. It's definitely the way we went into it. And of course, Brian has been through every little detail. So Brian, I'll let you add.

（聽不清）我先開始，然後讓布賴恩說話。所以最好的，我的意思是，我們可以給出的事實是，第一，我們越來越接近這些計劃的結束。所以我們正在完成工作。我們知道更多。我們看到更多。在學習曲線方面，我們也沒有時間了。沒有時間制定學習曲線。他們需要幾年時間。我們沒有幾年的時間。我們是——所以我們不再有任何固定的學習曲線。我們只是說這些供應受限——我們今天面臨的供應限制在我們完成之前不會結束。因此，我們正在嘗試以真正清晰和現實的方式評估這些計劃，以了解我們現在正在經歷的事情，而不是預測未來的重大改進。所以，對我來說，這就是它周圍的場景。這絕對是我們進入它的方式。當然，布賴恩經歷了每一個小細節。所以布萊恩，我會讓你補充。

Not much to add other than we sit in this environment and you can't ignore these macro constraints and how they impact these programs, and that just is what happened this quarter. But the thing that we've done our best to do is derisk, and derisk, as Dave mentioned, some of these assumptions and future cost forecasts. So we like where we closed the quarter of our position. We do it every quarter, and we feel confident this particular quarter, it really was the recognition of the very rapidly changing environment that is persistent, and can't assume it's going to get better anytime soon.

除了我們坐在這個環境中之外，沒有什麼可補充的，你不能忽視這些宏觀限制以及它們如何影響這些程序，而這正是本季度發生的事情。但是，我們已經盡最大努力做的事情是去冒險，並且正如戴夫所提到的，去冒險其中一些假設和未來的成本預測。所以我們喜歡我們關閉四分之一頭寸的地方。我們每個季度都這樣做，我們對這個特定的季度充滿信心，這確實是對持續快速變化的環境的認可，並且不能假設它會很快變得更好。

Our next question is from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen。

I guess I kind of get the $2.8 billion on the development program, although that seems large. What confuses me is that excluding the $2.8 billion all those mature programs, F-18, F-15, Apache, et cetera, look like they're at breakeven. They're making no money when Lockheed and GV have their issues. But basically, the mature stuff is doing okay, how come?

我想我在開發計劃中獲得了 28 億美元，儘管這看起來很大。令我困惑的是，除了 28 億美元之外，所有那些成熟的項目，F-18、F-15、Apache 等等，看起來都處於盈虧平衡狀態。當洛克希德和 GV 遇到問題時，他們沒有賺錢。但基本上，成熟的東西還行，怎麼會？

Brian, probably I'll let you grab that one.

布賴恩，也許我會讓你抓住那個。

We saw across some of these other programs, similar disruptions in terms of both factory stability, part shortages, labor. So those weren't immune at all. It's just that they're not magnified in the sense that there are these big 6 price development programs that have these reach forward losses embedded in them.

我們在其他一些項目中看到，在工廠穩定性、零件短缺和勞動力方面出現了類似的中斷。所以那些人根本沒有免疫力。只是它們沒有被放大，因為有這 6 大價格開發計劃，其中嵌入了這些遠期損失。

You know in making comparisons across our companies. Our BDS is programs only. It's not including the government services part of our business, which continues to run reasonably healthy margins and does its thing. So I know you know that, but I just want to point it out.

你知道在我們的公司之間進行比較。我們的 BDS 只是程序。它不包括我們業務中的政府服務部分，該業務繼續保持合理健康的利潤率並儘其所能。所以我知道你知道這一點，但我只想指出這一點。

And then -- so I mean, we've seen sort of a whole set here. We thought first quarter, $900 million got it done. Now we have $2.8 billion. What should we be looking for to see -- to feel confident that, in fact, you guys really are out of the woods at BDS?

然後 - 所以我的意思是，我們在這裡看到了一整套。我們認為第一季度，9 億美元完成了它。現在我們有 28 億美元。我們應該期待看到什麼——相信你們真的在 BDS 走出了困境？

Better numbers, better performance, better everything. So I don't want to tell you anything other than that. Our objective is to make sure these tankers are doing the job for our military customer. That is it. That's all we're focused on, and they are doing that, and they are now permitted to do all the missions that are required.

更好的數字，更好的性能，更好的一切。所以我不想告訴你除此之外的任何事情。我們的目標是確保這些油輪為我們的軍事客戶服務。這就對了。這就是我們所關注的，他們正在這樣做，他們現在被允許執行所有需要的任務。

So we are knocking down risk and we are implementing these programs. And so I am confident we're going to get where we need to get, and you'll be confident when you see the numbers play out the way I expect them to play out.

所以我們正在降低風險，我們正在實施這些計劃。所以我有信心我們會到達我們需要到達的地方，當你看到數字以我期望的方式發揮時你會很有信心。

Yes.

是的。

As you know, better than anyone, these are complicated programs, lots of assumptions, lots of moving parts, backdrop of a volatile environment. We'll do our very best to derisk.

如您所知，這些程序比任何人都好，它們是複雜的程序、大量的假設、大量的活動部件、動蕩的環境背景。我們會盡最大努力去冒險。

And that will come from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

這將來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein。

I wanted to go back to the MAX rate and engines because on the earlier, I think Seth's question earlier talked about LEAPs out there, and we're looking at GE just reported 347 LEAP deliveries for the quarter. We are seeing Airbus finally, and they've struggled. But finally, that -- the LEAP-powered A320 seemed to be coming through. When I look at -- if we look at the numbers and you had sort of that target production rate of 31 a month and look at what Airbus is doing, it seems like CFM is finally getting there. And then on top of it, we know that well over 100 LEAPs were delivered ahead of production before. So I'm just trying to understand how the engines can be the main constraint here. Is there another issue that's also slowing down the delivery rate or the -- I'm sorry, the production rate?

我想回到 MAX 速率和引擎，因為在早些時候，我認為 Seth 的問題早些時候談到了 LEAP，我們正在查看 GE 剛剛報告的本季度 347 LEAP 交付。我們終於見到了空中客車公司，他們一直在苦苦掙扎。但最後，由 LEAP 提供動力的 A320 似乎要通過了。當我看 - 如果我們看一下數字，你的目標生產率是每月 31 架，然後看看空中客車公司在做什麼，似乎 CFM 終於實現了。最重要的是，我們知道在生產之前已經交付了 100 多個 LEAP。所以我只是想了解引擎如何成為這裡的主要約束。是否還有另一個問題也降低了交付速度或 - 對不起，生產率？

Doug, no, I can try to reconcile numbers. All I can tell you is I personally witnessed alongside my counterpart on the reconciliation of the engines we need to deliver the airplanes and the engines they're producing on weekly rates. And so we just have -- we have a gap. We got room to make up, and we're going to get there, but it's going to be at a constrained rate and we know that. And that's what we're trying to factor into our forward looks and that is what you will see when we get together next week.

道格，不，我可以嘗試核對數字。我只能告訴你的是，我與我的同行親眼目睹了我們交付飛機所需的發動機和他們每週生產的發動機的協調。所以我們只有 - 我們有一個差距。我們有彌補的空間，我們會到達那裡，但它的速度會受到限制，我們知道這一點。這就是我們試圖在未來展望中考慮的因素，這就是我們下週聚在一起時你會看到的。

So there's no -- there is no other constraint, Doug, with respect to our rate projections and others. There are lots of weekly constraints that just simply impact the stability of the line. But they are not going to be rate limiters, either short term or long term. It will boil down to engines and the competition for castings between Pratt and CFM.

所以就我們的利率預測和其他方面而言，Doug 沒有其他限制。每周有很多限制只會影響生產線的穩定性。但無論是短期還是長期，它們都不會成為限速器。它將歸結為發動機以及普拉特和 CFM 之間的鑄件競爭。

And then if I can just follow up with one more thing, which when you guided early in the year to positive free cash flow for the year, was that including the assumption of this tax benefit that we saw this quarter? Because just wondering if you're thinking about positive free cash flow still in the absence of that sort of $1.6 billion additional benefit here.

然後，如果我可以再跟進一件事，當您在年初指導今年實現正的自由現金流時，是否包括我們在本季度看到的這種稅收優惠的假設？因為只是想知道你是否還在考慮在沒有那種 16 億美元的額外收益的情況下仍然在考慮正的自由現金流。

It was contemplated, Doug.

這是考慮過的，道格。

Okay. So that's part of the outlook you had. Okay.

好的。這就是你的觀點的一部分。好的。

Sure.

當然。

All right. That completes The Boeing Company's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you all for joining.

好的。波音公司 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議就此結束。謝謝大家的加入。