波音 (BA) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收年增 30% 至 233 億美元,主要受惠於商用飛機交付量提升與國防業務成長;BCA(商用飛機)營收 YoY +50%,BDS(國防)營收 YoY +25%,BGS(全球服務)營收 YoY +10%
    • 本季下修 777X 首次交付時程至 2027 年,並認列 49 億美元非現金損失,2025 年自由現金流指引由 -30 億美元上修至 -25 億美元
    • Q3 首度轉為正自由現金流(2.38 億美元),優於預期,主要因商用交付量提升與 DOJ 付款遞延;市場反應未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 商用飛機交付量大幅提升,737 與 787 產能穩定提升,FAA 同意 737 產能提升至每月 42 架
      • 國防業務受地緣政治推動,BDS 訂單與營收創新高,獲美國太空軍 28 億美元合約與多項 PAC-3 合約
      • 全球服務(BGS)持續強勁,商用與國防售後市場需求穩健,數位解決方案持續獲新單
      • 企業文化改革與流程優化,提升安全、品質與員工士氣,正面回饋持續累積
    • 風險:
      • 777X 認列 49 億美元損失,首交付延至 2027,認證進度高度依賴 FAA,流程複雜且具不確定性
      • 737-7 與 737-10 認證仍在關鍵路徑,預計 2026 年完成,反映設計變更與反冰系統問題
      • 供應鏈瓶頸(特別是座椅認證)對 787 產能提升構成挑戰,未來產能提升需密切關注供應鏈穩定性
      • IAM 工會罷工對部分國防生產有潛在影響,雖已啟動應變計畫但仍需持續觀察
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • BCA(商用飛機):Q3 交付 160 架,創 2018 年以來新高,營收 111 億美元(YoY +50%),營業利潤率 -48.3%(受 777X 損失影響)
    • BCA:Q3 訂單 161 架,期末訂單簿 5,900 架,價值 5,350 億美元
    • 737:Q3 交付 121 架,9 月交付 41 架,產能穩定於每月 38 架,10 月起提升至 42 架
    • 787:Q3 交付 24 架,庫存 10 架(較上季減少 5 架),年底前產能目標 8 架/月,明年規劃提升至 10 架/月
    • BDS(國防):Q3 交付 30 架飛機、2 顆衛星,營收 69 億美元(YoY +25%),營業利潤率 1.7%,訂單 90 億美元,期末訂單簿 760 億美元(創新高)
    • BGS(全球服務):Q3 營收 54 億美元(YoY +10%),營業利潤率 17.5%,訂單 80 億美元,年初至今 book-to-bill 1.2
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 年自由現金流預估為 -25 億美元(上修,原預估 -30 億美元)
    • 2023 年 CapEx 預估約 30 億美元,2024-2026 年因 Charleston 與 St. Louis 擴產將持續提升
    • Q4 預期自由現金流為正(不含 DOJ 付款),全年現金與有價證券預計年底約 280 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 2026 年 777X 現金流狀況?何時能達到現金流中性?
      A: 2026 年 777X 現金流將較 2025 年略高,2027 年開始改善,2028 年接近中性,2029 年起轉為正現金流。
    • Q: 777X 認列 49 億美元損失的主因?供應鏈如何因應延遲?
      A: 主要因認證延遲導致生產計畫調整、持有成本增加、學習曲線變化與重工成本上升。供應鏈將依新時程逐案協商,損失已考量供應鏈影響。
    • Q: 737 產能提升時程與供應鏈挑戰?
      A: 年底前穩定達 42 架/月,未來每次提升間隔至少 6 個月,將依產線與供應鏈成熟度決定,供應鏈目前表現良好但需持續監控。
    • Q: 787 產能提升與供應鏈瓶頸?
      A: 年底達 8 架/月,明年規劃提升至 10 架/月,座椅認證仍為主要瓶頸,供應鏈無庫存緩衝,需確保穩定後再提升產能。
    • Q: Charleston 廠擴產規劃與相關 CapEx?
      A: Charleston 廠將大幅擴建,為支援 787 產能提升至每月 12-14 架,2028 年前逐步啟用,相關 CapEx 明年起顯著增加。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised this call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

    大家好,歡迎參加波音公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,本次通話正在錄音。管理層討論、幻燈片演示以及分析師問答環節正在透過網路進行現場直播。(操作說明)

  • At this time, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Eric Hill, Vice President of Investor Relations for opening remarks and introductions. Mr. Hill, please go ahead.

    現在,我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁埃里克·希爾先生,請他致開幕詞並作介紹。希爾先生,請繼續。

  • Eric Hill - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Eric Hill - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Boeing's quarterly earnings call. With me today are Kelly Ortberg, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Malave, Boeing's Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer. This quarter's webcast, earnings release, and presentation, which include relevant disclosures and non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website.

    謝謝,早安。歡迎參加波音公司季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我出席的有波音公司總裁兼執行長凱利·奧特伯格,以及波音公司執行副總裁兼財務長傑伊·馬拉維。本季的網路直播、收益發布和簡報(包括相關揭露和非GAAP調整表)可在我們的網站上取得。

  • Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including the ones described in our SEC filings. As always, we will leave time at the end of the call for analyst questions. With that, I will turn the call over to Kelly Ortberg.

    今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,包括我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的風險和不確定性。像往常一樣,我們會在電話會議結束時留出時間供分析師提問。接下來,我將把電話交給凱利·奧特伯格。

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. I'd like to take a moment to welcome our new CFO, Jay Malave. It's been great to have Jay on board and officially welcome him to his first quarterly earnings call for Boeing.

    謝謝你,艾瑞克,大家早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我謹藉此機會歡迎我們的新任財務長傑伊·馬拉維。很高興 Jay 加入我們,並正式歡迎他參加他在波音公司的首次季度財報電話會議。

  • So now let's take a closer look at our business as we enter the final quarter of the year. Our sustained focus on safety and quality is driving better performance across the enterprise, and we are re-earning the trust of our stakeholders, including customers, regulators, and employees.

    現在,讓我們更仔細地審視一下我們今年最後一個季度的業務狀況。我們持續關注安全和質量,這推動了整個企業的績效提升,我們也重新贏得了包括客戶、監管機構和員工在內的利害關係人的信任。

  • Our focus on culture change continues to energize our teams and improve how we work together. By August of this year, we have delivered more commercial airplanes than all of last year. Our defense business is well positioned in the current geopolitical environment, and our service business continues to deliver in a robust aftermarket.

    我們對文化變革的關注持續激發團隊的活力,並改善我們的協作方式。截至今年8月,我們交付的商用飛機數量已經超過了去年全年的數量。在當前的地緣政治環境下,我們的國防業務處於有利地位,我們的服務業務在強勁的售後市場中繼續保持成長勢頭。

  • Across all of our market segments, we continue to see strong demand, which is reflected in our growing backlog. We marked important milestones in our recovery as the operations generated positive free cash flow in the quarter for the first time since 2023. And earlier this month, we jointly agreed with the FAA to increase 737 production to 42 airplanes per month.

    在我們所有的市場領域,我們都持續看到強勁的需求,這體現在我們不斷成長的積壓訂單上。我們的復甦取得了重要里程碑式的進展,本季營運產生了自 2023 年以來的首次正自由現金流。本月初,我們與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 共同達成協議,將 737 飛機的產量提高到每月 42 架。

  • While returning the corner, we're well aware of the work ahead of us to fully recover our performance, particularly on our commercial development and certification programs. We'll talk more about our status but I want to emphasize that we're exploring every lever to deliver better performance on all of our programs.

    在重振旗鼓的同時,我們也深知要全面恢復業績,尤其是在商業開發和認證專案方面,我們還有很多工作要做。我們會進一步討論我們的現狀,但我想強調的是,我們正在探索一切可能的途徑,以期在所有專案中取得更好的成績。

  • Now turning to the businesses. Let me start with Boeing Commercial Airplanes. We're making meaningful progress in line with our safety and quality plan and our investments here continue to improve the health of our factories.

    現在來看企業方面。讓我先從波音商用飛機說起。我們在安全和品質計劃方面取得了實質進展,我們在這裡的投資也持續改善著我們工廠的健康狀況。

  • Notably, we've seen 75% reduction in traveled work on our 737 and a reduction of 60% across all airplane programs. Supported by greater stability, we successfully ramped up the 737 production to 38 airplanes per month as we had planned. We then focused on enablers such as improved quality, training, and workplace coaches to help stabilize at that rate and demonstrate that all of our key performance indicators are healthy. Once we are satisfied with the sustained health and stability of the production system, we then presented our disciplined plan to the FAA to increase production to 42 airplanes a month.

    值得注意的是,我們的 737 客機出差工作量減少了 75%,所有飛機專案的出差工作量減少了 60%。在更穩定的生產環境下,我們按計畫成功地將737飛機的產量提高到每月38架。然後,我們專注於提高品質、培訓和職場教練等促成因素,以幫助穩定在該速度,並證明我們所有的關鍵績效指標都處於健康狀態。一旦我們對生產系統的持續健康和穩定性感到滿意,我們就向美國聯邦航空管理局提交了我們嚴謹的計劃,將產量提高到每月 42 架飛機。

  • We continue to be guided by our safety and quality plan and we'll monitor our performance against these six KPIs as we methodically move to higher rates. As a reminder, we expect rate increases beyond 42 per month will go in increments of 5. And while rate increased breaks won't be earlier than six months apart, we will remain disciplined and we won't move to higher rates until we achieve stability and readiness.

    我們將繼續遵循安全和品質計劃,並根據這六項關鍵績效指標監控我們的表現,逐步提高費率。再次提醒,我們預計每月超過 42 的利率上漲幅度將以 5 為單位遞增。雖然利率上調的間隔不會少於六個月,但我們將保持自律,在實現穩定和準備之前,不會提高利率。

  • Also in the quarter, the FAA announced it will allow delegation to Boeing to issue airworthiness certificates for some 737 MAX and 787 airplanes. Our team continues to work under the oversight of the FAA in building safe, high-quality commercial airplanes that comply with all airworthiness certification requirements, and we appreciate the FAA's confidence in Boeing and earning limited delegation authority is a responsibility we take very seriously.

    本季度,美國聯邦航空管理局宣布將授權波音公司為部分 737 MAX 和 787 飛機頒發適航證書。我們的團隊繼續在聯邦航空管理局的監督下工作,致力於製造安全、高品質的商用飛機,並遵守所有適航認證要求。我們感謝聯邦航空管理局對波音公司的信任,獲得有限的授權是我們非常重視的責任。

  • On the 787, the team is performing well, and the program continues to work towards demonstrating stability at rate 7. As we previously shared, we'll be guided by our KPIs before we transition to planned higher rates and aim to move to 8 per month in the near future, having recently completed a successful rate Capstone review with the FAA. At the same time, we're investing in the expansion of our South Carolina site to ensure we're prepared to meet exceptional market demand, and we look forward to an exciting future for the 787 program.

    在 787 機型上,團隊表現良好,該專案繼續努力以 7 倍率展現穩定性。正如我們之前分享的那樣,我們將根據我們的 KPI 進行指導,然後再過渡到計劃中的更高費率,目標是在不久的將來達到每月 8 架次,我們最近已成功完成了與 FAA 的費率 Capstone 審查。同時,我們正在投資擴建南卡羅來納州工廠,以確保我們能夠滿足異常旺盛的市場需求,我們期待 787 項目擁有一個令人興奮的未來。

  • Turning now to our development programs. On 777X, as we announced earlier this morning, we have delayed our expectations for certification and first delivery, resulting in a $4.9 billion noncash charge during the quarter. As we've previously said in the third-quarter, completion of our certification program is taking longer than expected.

    接下來,我們來談談我們的發展計畫。正如我們今天早上早些時候宣布的那樣,關於 777X,我們推遲了認證和首次交付的預期,導致本季度產生了 49 億美元的非現金支出。正如我們在第三季所提到的,我們的認證計畫完成時間比預期要長。

  • We have worked to understand the implications to our go-forward plan and now we anticipate first delivery of the 777-9 will occur in 2027. Jay will provide further details on this in his prepared remarks. We've accumulated more than 4,000 flight hours, more than double a typical flight test program. And so far, there are no major technical issues on the airplane or on the engine.

    我們已經努力了解這對我們未來計劃的影響,現在我們預計 777-9 的首架交付將於 2027 年進行。傑伊將在事先準備好的演講稿中提供更多細節。我們已經累計飛行超過 4000 小時,是典型飛行測試計畫的兩倍多。到目前為止,飛機和引擎都沒有出​​現重大技術問題。

  • In the quarter, we completed critical testing of the airplanes brakes, engines, takeoff performance, and aerodynamic performance. However, we still have a significant portion of the slight test certification program to go and our team is executing plans to complete this certification as part of the schedule we shared today.

    本季度,我們完成了飛機煞車、引擎、起飛性能和空氣動力性能的關鍵測試。然而,我們還有相當一部分輕量級測試認證計劃需要完成,我們的團隊正在執行計劃,以按照我們今天分享的時間表完成這項認證。

  • The airplane in the engine are performing well, demand for the airplane remains strong, and we remain confident that the 777X will be the next flagship airplane for our global customers. This is obviously a disappointment, but we just need more time to complete the certification process. With this charge, we now have a higher confidence that we'll complete the certification within the financial estimate.

    飛機引擎性能良好,對該飛機的需求仍然強勁,我們仍然相信 777X 將成為我們全球客戶的下一款旗艦飛機。這顯然令人失望,但我們需要更多時間來完成認證過程。有了這筆費用,我們現在更有信心在預算範圍內完成認證。

  • Other news on the 737-7 and 10 programs. With more than 3,000 hours of lab testing and analysis, we now have a final depth of design changes to permanently address the engine anti-ice issue. This effort remains on the critical path, and we're now following the lead of the FAA as we work to certify the suite of design updates.

    關於737-7和10項目的其他消息。經過 3000 多個小時的實驗室測試和分析,我們現在對設計進行了最終的深度修改,以永久解決引擎防冰問題。這項工作仍處於關鍵階段,我們現在正跟隨美國聯邦航空管理局的指示,努力對這套設計更新進行認證。

  • As we previously shared, we anticipate certification for the 737-7 and the -10 to happen in 2026. Looking now at our defense business. We continue our active management approach, and we're making progress to derisk our development programs. We again demonstrated stability on our EACs in the quarter, and our BDS team is working hard every day to earn trust of our customers. We also continue to proactively engage with our customers and suppliers.

    正如我們之前分享的那樣,我們預計 737-7 和 -10 的認證將於 2026 年實現。現在來看我們的國防業務。我們繼續採取積極的管理方式,並在降低開發專案風險方面取得進展。本季我們的 EAC 再次保持穩定,我們的 BDS 團隊每天都在努力工作,以贏得客戶的信任。我們也會繼續積極主動地與客戶和供應商保持溝通。

  • In many cases, we've been able to revise contract baselines to lower execution risk and create win-win outcomes for the customer and for Boeing. We still have work to get these programs through the development phase. And as I've said before, you're never done until you're done, but we clearly are making progress. In the quarter, BDS had several notable milestones, including delivery of the 100 KC-46 tanker across our combined US Air Force and global customer base.

    在許多情況下,我們能夠修改合約基準,以降低執行風險,並為客戶和波音公司創造雙贏的結果。我們仍需努力使這些專案順利完成開發階段。正如我之前所說,不到最後一刻,永遠不會有完成的時候,但我們顯然正在取得進展。本季度,BDS 取得了幾個值得關注的里程碑,包括向我們的美國空軍和全球客戶群交付了 100 架 KC-46 加油機。

  • We're proud our platform continues to provide unique value and capability to our customers. We also secured key contract awards in the quarter. The US Space Force awarded Boeing a $2.8 billion contract for the Evolved Strategic Satcom program, solidifying our position as a leader in the national security space.

    我們為我們的平台能夠持續為客戶提供獨特的價值和功能而感到自豪。本季度我們還獲得了幾項重要的合約。美國太空軍授予波音公司一份價值 28 億美元的「演進型戰略衛星通訊」專案合同,鞏固了我們在國家安全領域的領導地位。

  • More recently, we signed multiyear contracts valued at $2.7 billion to produce additional PAC-3 seekers, leveraging the advanced investments we've made to ramp up quickly and meet the demand. In St. Louis, we are executing our contingency plan as our IAM representative workforce remains on strike.

    最近,我們簽署了價值 27 億美元的多年期合同,以生產更多的 PAC-3 導引頭,利用我們已進行的先進投資,迅速提高產能,滿足市場需求。在聖路易斯,由於我們的 IAM 代表員工仍在罷工,我們正在執行應急計劃。

  • While of course, we prefer not to be in this position, the team continues to work in support of our customers. We are building JDAMs without IAM workforce at about the same production rate as before the work stoppage and the team is progressing on our MQ-25 and T7 development programs. We'll continue to manage through this with focus on supporting our customers.

    當然,我們並不希望處於這種境地,但團隊將繼續努力為客戶提供支援。在沒有 IAM 人員的情況下,我們以與停工前大致相同的生產速度製造 JDAM,團隊正在推進我們的 MQ-25 和 T7 開發項目。我們將繼續努力應對,重點是為客戶提供支援。

  • Now moving on to Global Services. BGS had another strong quarter, delivering exceptional performance for our company as they support our defense and commercial customers. The US Navy awarded Boeing contracts totaling more than $400 million for the repair of the F-18 landing gear and outer wing panels. We're still on track to close the sale of Jefferson and the other portions of our digital business later in this quarter.

    接下來進入全球服務部分。BGS 又一個季度表現出色,為公司提供了卓越的業績,為我們的國防和商業客戶提供支援。美國海軍授予波音公司總額超過 4 億美元的合同,用於維修 F-18 戰鬥機的起落架和外翼面板。我們仍有望在本季稍後完成 Jefferson 的出售以及我們數位業務的其他部分。

  • At the same time, BGS team continues to secure deals for the digital capabilities that we'll retain related to fleet maintenance, operations, and repair. A good example, we recently announced an agreement with Eva Air that includes digital diagnostic tools and advanced analytics to improve efficiency and maintenance operations.

    同時,BGS 團隊繼續為我們將保留的與車隊維護、營運和維修相關的數位化能力達成交易。一個很好的例子是,我們最近宣布與長榮航空達成協議,其中包括數位診斷工具和高級分析技術,以提高效率和維護營運。

  • Now lastly, I'll share another update on our company's culture change. This remains a topic of interest and conversations with many of our stakeholders. I'm pleased with how the employees have embraced culture change. You'll recall that we use feedback and direct employee input to help shape our new values and behaviors earlier this year. Since then, as I've traveled around the company, I'm excited to see how many teams are using the values and behaviors to effect change in their daily work.

    最後,我將分享我們公司文化變革的另一個最新進展。這仍然是我們許多利害關係人關注和討論的話題。我對員工們接受文化變革的方式感到滿意。您可能還記得,今年早些時候,我們利用回饋和員工的直接意見來幫助塑造我們的新價值觀和行為準則。從那以後,當我走訪公司各部門時,我很高興看到許多團隊都在運用這些價值觀和行為準則來改變他們的日常工作。

  • For example, I have come across production teams that are using their daily tier meetings to call out which values and behaviors help them work better with each other. And during my recent visits in Miami and are some of our global sites, teams told me how championing our values around safety and quality is strengthening our relationships with our customers.

    例如,我遇到一些生產團隊,他們利用每日的層級會議來明確哪些價值觀和行為有助於他們更好地相互合作。在我最近訪問邁阿密和我們的一些全球站點期間,團隊告訴我,倡導我們在安全和品質方面的價值觀正在加強我們與客戶的關係。

  • I'm confident that with our new values, behaviors, and the processes we're putting in place with performance management, leadership development and new training opportunities will continue to see positive culture change. Before we close out the year, we're also going to do another voice of employee survey like we did back in February. We'll get a feel for how we're doing on the culture change and get feedback on the areas that are working and where we still need to improve. All this work is going to take time to really take hold. And while I don't expect overnight improvement, we'll continue to listen to our people and use the values and behaviors.

    我相信,憑藉我們新的價值觀、行為準則以及在績效管理、領導力發展和新的培訓機會方面正在實施的流程,我們將繼續看到積極的文化變革。在年底之前,我們還會像二月一樣,再進行一次員工意見調查。我們將了解我們在文化變革方面做得如何,並獲得哪些方面運作良好以及哪些方面仍需改進的回饋。所有這些工作都需要時間才能真正見效。雖然我不指望一夜之間就能有所改善,但我們會繼續傾聽員工的意見,並實踐他們的價值觀和行為準則。

  • Now before I finish my prepared remarks, I'd like to say thank you to our employees for their dedication to safety and quality and enabling another quarter of improved performance. While we're all disappointed with the 777X delays, it shouldn't overshadow the progress we're making. Our customers are giving us great feedback on the quality and delivery performance. We're increasing production rates. We turned cash positive in the quarter, and we're winning in the market.

    在我結束準備好的發言之前,我想感謝我們的員工,感謝他們對安全和品質的奉獻,使公司又一個季度的業績有所提升。雖然我們都對 777X 的延期感到失望,但這不應該掩蓋我們正在取得的進展。我們的客戶對產品品質和交付效率給予了很高的評價。我們正在提高生產力。本季度我們實現了現金流為正,並且在市場競爭中取得了成功。

  • We're well positioned to build on the momentum, delivering on our more than $600 billion backlog and restore Boeing to the company, we all know it can be. Now let me hand it over to Jay to further discuss our operating results. Jay?

    我們已做好充分準備,乘勢而上,完成超過 6000 億美元的積壓訂單,讓波音公司恢復到我們都知道它能夠達到的水平。現在我把麥克風交給傑伊,讓他進一步討論我們的營運表現。傑伊?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying that it has been an honor to join Boeing at such an important time in the company's history, and I'd like to thank the team here for the warm welcome these last few months. Throughout my career, I've always been impressed with Boeing's people, products and services and iconic legacy. I'm very excited to partner with Kelly in support of our continued recovery and delivering for our global customers and stakeholders. Boeing is in a much stronger position than it was a year ago, and it's my job to help Kelly and the leadership team build on that progress.

    謝謝凱莉,大家早安。首先,我非常榮幸能在波音公司歷史上如此重要的時刻加入公司,同時我也要感謝這裡團隊在過去幾個月裡給予我的熱情歡迎。在我的職業生涯中,波音公司的員工、產品和服務以及其標誌性的歷史遺產一直給我留下了深刻的印象。我非常高興能與 Kelly 合作,支持我們持續復甦,並為我們的全球客戶和利害關係人提供服務。波音公司目前的處境比一年前好得多,我的工作就是幫助凱利和領導團隊在此基礎上繼續發展。

  • I'd also like to thank Brian West for his role in getting us to where we are and for his support throughout this transition. Now let's start with the total company financial performance for the quarter. Revenue was up 30% to $23.3 billion, primarily driven by improved operational performance across the business including higher commercial deliveries and defense volume. The core loss per share of $7.47 primarily reflects the $6.45 impact of the $4.9 billion charge on the 777X program which I'll discuss in more detail shortly.

    我還要感謝布萊恩·韋斯特,感謝他幫助我們走到今天這一步,並感謝他在整個過渡時期給予的支持。現在我們先來看看公司本季的整體財務表現。營收成長 30% 至 233 億美元,主要得益於業務營運績效的提升,包括商業交付量和國防業務量的成長。每股核心虧損 7.47 美元,主要反映了 777X 項目 49 億美元費用帶來的 6.45 美元影響,我稍後會詳細討論這一點。

  • Free cash flow was positive $238 million in the quarter, primarily reflecting higher commercial deliveries and working capital that improved compared to both the prior year and the prior quarter. Importantly, this was the first positive free cash flow quarter since the fourth-quarter of 2023 and serves as an important progress point in our company's recovery. These free cash flow results were better than expectations in July, driven by higher commercial deliveries as well as the potential DOJ payment shifting to the fourth-quarter.

    本季自由現金流為正 2.38 億美元,主要反映了商業交付量增加以及營運資本較上年同期和上一季有所改善。重要的是,這是自 2023 年第四季以來第一個正自由現金流季度,也是我們公司復甦進程中的重要進展點。7 月的自由現金流結果好於預期,這主要得益於更高的商業交付量以及美國司法部可能將付款推遲到第四季度。

  • Turning to BCA on the next page. BCA delivered 160 airplanes in the quarter, the highest quarterly delivery total since 2018. Revenue was up nearly 50% to $11.1 billion primarily reflecting higher deliveries compared to last year. Operating margin of negative 48.3% was impacted by the charge on the 777X program.

    下一頁將介紹BCA。BCA本季交付了160架飛機,這是自2018年以來最高的季度交付量。營收成長近 50%,達到 111 億美元,主要反映出與去年相比,交付量增加。受 777X 專案費用的影響,營業利益率為負 48.3%。

  • BCA booked 161 net orders in the quarter, including 50787 airplanes for Turkish Airlines and 30 737-8 airplanes for the Norwegian group. Backlog in the quarter ended at $535 billion and includes more than 5,900 airplanes with the 737 and 787 both sold firm into the next decade.

    BCA本季淨訂購161架飛機,其中包括為土耳其航空公司訂購的5,0787架飛機和為挪威航空集團訂購的30架737-8飛機。本季積壓訂單總額為 5,350 億美元,其中包括 5,900 多架飛機,其中 737 和 787 的訂單已售出,足以支撐未來十年的訂單量。

  • Now let's click down to the commercial programs. The 737 program delivered 121 airplanes in the quarter, including 41 in September. On production, the factory stabilized at 38 per month in the quarter. Importantly, we jointly agreed with the FAA in October to increase to 42 per month and the program is now focused on continuing to drive a stable production system as they transition to this new rate. Spirit continues to deliver fuselages with improved quality and flow, which sets us up well for both our future production ramp and the planned reintegration.

    現在我們點擊進入商業節目部分。737 專案本季交付了 121 架飛機,其中 9 月交付了 41 架。在生產方面,該工廠本季穩定在每月 38 台。重要的是,我們在 10 月與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 共同達成協議,將產量提高到每月 42 架,目前該計劃的重點是繼續推動穩定的生產系統,以過渡到這一新速度。Spirit 繼續交付品質和流程不斷改進的機身,這為我們未來的生產爬坡和計劃中的重新整合奠定了良好的基礎。

  • That transaction is still expected to close this year. The quarter ended with approximately 5 737-8 built prior to 2023, down 15% from the second quarter. Importantly, we completed the rework on the last of these airplanes and shut down the shadow factory in the third-quarter. On the -7 and -10, inventory levels were stable at approximately 35 airplanes. As Kelly said, we have made good progress on the suite of engine anti ICE design updates over the past few months and continue to work with the FAA on the certification path for these programs.

    預計該交易仍將於今年完成。本季末,2023 年前建造的 737-8 架飛機約有 5 架,比第二季下降了 15%。重要的是,我們在第三季完成了最後一架飛機的返工,並關閉了影子工廠。-7 和 -10 號航空母艦的庫存水準穩定在 35 架左右。正如凱利所說,在過去的幾個月裡,我們在引擎防內燃機設計更新方面取得了良好進展,並將繼續與美國聯邦航空管理局合作,推進這些專案的認證進程。

  • On the 787, we delivered 24 airplanes in the third-quarter and ended with approximately 10787 airplanes in inventory that were built prior to 2023, down five from last quarter. We still expect to deliver these airplanes through 2026, which is aligned with our customers' fleet planning requirements.

    在 787 機型方面,我們在第三季度交付了 24 架飛機,截至目前,庫存中在 2023 年之前製造的飛機數量約為 10787 架,比上一季減少了 5 架。我們仍預計在 2026 年前交付這些飛機,這符合我們客戶的機隊規劃要求。

  • Finally, on 777X, during the quarter, we recorded a $4.9 billion loss provision net of a cost-based extension benefit to reset the development and production schedule on the program with first delivery now expected in 2027 versus the prior expectation of 2026. To provide more background and color, we received approval to begin the second phase of certification flight testing in early 2025 and had anticipated authorization to start the next major phase of certification play testing in the third-quarter.

    最後,關於 777X 項目,本季度我們提列了 49 億美元的損失準備金,扣除了基於成本的延期收益,以重置該項目的開發和生產計劃,目前預計首架飛機將於 2027 年交付,而此前的預期為 2026 年。為了提供更多背景和細節,我們已獲準於 2025 年初開始第二階段的認證飛行測試,並預計在第三季度獲得授權開始下一階段的主要認證飛行測試。

  • However, this authorization has been delayed as Boeing and the FAA work through the supporting analysis that enables the next phase of certification flight testing. Given this delay and our assessment of the time line to enter future certification phases, we have shifted a flight test and production schedules to reflect these learnings. We now expect the next major phase to start later this year or early 2026.

    然而,由於波音公司和美國聯邦航空管理局正在完成支持性分析,以進行下一階段的認證飛行測試,因此這項授權被推遲了。鑑於此次延誤以及我們對進入未來認證階段時間表的評估,我們已調整飛行測試和生產計劃以反映這些經驗教訓。我們現在預計下一主要階段將於今年稍後或 2026 年初開始。

  • The certification program delay, coupled with our reassessment of production costs constitute the basis of the incremental loss provision this quarter. The charge amount includes additional customer concessions, the cost of incremental rework on build aircraft, learning curve adjustments and the carrying cost of production operations spread out over a longer period of time.

    認證計畫的延遲,加上我們對生產成本的重新評估,構成了本季新增損失準備金的基礎。收費金額包括額外的客戶優惠、飛機製造過程中的增量返工成本、學習曲線調整以及分攤到較長時期的生產營運成本。

  • On a comparable basis to last year's total charges on the program, the costs are higher due to rework on build aircraft, incremental production disruption and learning curve adjustments. As far as the cash profile, we see two impacts. The first is related to delivery timing, where we expect headwinds of about $2 billion in 2026 as deliveries move to the right. This converts to a tailwind later in the decade as we deliver delay units.

    與去年該專案的總費用相比,由於飛機製造返工、生產中斷增加以及學習曲線調整,成本更高。就現金狀況而言,我們看到兩種影響。第一個因素與交付時間有關,我們預計 2026 年將面臨約 20 億美元的不利因素,因為交付時間將提前。到本世紀末,隨著我們交付延時單元,這將轉化為順風。

  • Second, the cash roll off of the $4.9 billion accounting charge is expected to be spread into the next decade. While disappointing, the reset allows us to operate to a higher confidence plan and allows our customers to manage their operations accordingly.

    其次,預計 49 億美元的會計費用的現金攤提將在未來十年內分攤。雖然令人失望,但此次調整使我們能夠按照更有信心的計劃運作,也使我們的客戶能夠相應地管理他們的營運。

  • As Kelly mentioned, this confidence also stems from our completion of dry run flight tests. While we have not received certification credit with the FAA for those flights, we have obtained important verification data to support technical risk burned down. Okay. Let's shift over to BDS on the next page. BDS delivered 30 aircraft and 2 satellites in the quarter.

    正如凱利所提到的那樣,這種信心也源於我們完成了試飛測試。雖然我們尚未獲得美國聯邦航空管理局對這些航班的認證認可,但我們已經獲得了重要的驗證數據,以支援技術風險消除。好的。下一頁我們來看北斗系統。北斗本季交付了30架飛機和2顆衛星。

  • and revenue grew 25% to $6.9 billion on improved operational performance and higher volume. Operating margin of 1.7% was up significantly compared to last year, also reflecting the better operating performance in the third-quarter. These results also included immaterial impacts associated with the IAM work stoppage as we continue to execute our contingency plans. BDS booked $9 billion in order during the quarter and backlog grew to a record $76 billion.

    由於營運績效提高和銷售增加,收入成長了 25%,達到 69 億美元。營業利潤率為 1.7%,較去年同期大幅成長,也反映了第三季較好的經營業績。這些結果還包括與 IAM 停工相關的非實質影響,因為我們將繼續執行我們的應急計劃。BDS本季獲得90億美元的訂單,積壓訂單增加至創紀錄的760億美元。

  • Overall, we continue to make progress stabilizing our fixed price development programs even with minor cost updates on a few programs, such as for the tanker, which absorbed additional average shared costs from the 777X update. We have seen benefits from our active management approach and retiring risk and developing win-win opportunities for both us and our customers.

    總體而言,儘管少數項目(例如油輪項目)的成本略有更新,但我們在穩定固定價格開發項目方面繼續取得進展,因為油輪項目吸收了 777X 更新帶來的額外平均分攤成本。我們已經從積極的管理方式中獲益,降低了風險,並為我們和客戶創造了雙贏的機會。

  • We remain focused on delivering these important capabilities to our customers and met several important milestones in the quarter. For example, on a T-7A program, we achieved four additional customer milestones under the MOA and started assembly on the first production representative test aircraft. The remainder of the portfolio continues to benefit from exceptional demand supported by the global threat environment constructing our nation and allies. Performance on these programs also continue to stabilize and build on the improved operational performance that began earlier this year.

    我們始終專注於為客戶提供這些重要功能,並在本季實現了幾個重要的里程碑。例如,在 T-7A 專案中,我們根據諒解備忘錄實現了四個額外的客戶里程碑,並開始組裝第一架生產型代表性測試飛機。其餘投資組合持續受惠於強勁的需求,而這種需求又得益於正在塑造我們國家和盟友的全球威脅環境。這些專案的績效也持續趨於穩定,並在今年稍早開始的營運績效改善的基礎上持續提升。

  • Overall, the defense portfolio is well positioned for the future as evidenced by our record backlog, and we still expect the business to return to historical performance levels as we continue to drive execution and transition to new contracts with tighter underwriting standards.

    總體而言,國防業務組合已為未來做好了充分準備,我們創紀錄的積壓訂單證明了這一點。我們仍然預計,隨著我們繼續推進執行並過渡到承保標準更嚴格的新合同,該業務將恢復到歷史業績水平。

  • Moving to Global Services on the next page. BGS continued to perform well, again delivering strong financial results in the quarter. Revenue was up 10% to $5.4 billion, primarily reflecting improved commercial and government volume. Operating margin was 17.5% in the quarter, up 50 basis points compared to last year, unfavorable commercial volume and mix. Both our commercial and government businesses again delivered double-digit margins.

    下一頁將跳轉至全球服務頁面。BGS 繼續保持良好表現,本季再次取得了強勁的財務業績。營收成長 10% 至 54 億美元,主要反映了商業和政府業務量的改善。本季營業利潤率為 17.5%,比去年同期成長 50 個基點,但商業銷售和產品組合不利。我們的商業業務和政府業務再次實現了兩位數的利潤率。

  • The business also received $8 billion in orders with a year-to-date book-to-bill of 1.2. Okay. Shifting to cash and debt. Cash and marketable securities ended at $23 billion and the debt balance ended at $53.4 billion. The company also maintains access to $10 billion of revolving credit facilities, all of which remain undrawn.

    該公司還獲得了 80 億美元的訂單,年初至今的訂單出貨比為 1.2。好的。轉向現金和債務融資。現金及有價證券餘額為 230 億美元,債務餘額為 534 億美元。該公司還擁有 100 億美元的循環信貸額度,目前尚未動用。

  • We remain committed to strengthening the balance sheet and supporting our investment-grade rating. Regarding cash flow, we still expect the fourth-quarter to be positive before any impact from a potential DOJ payment. This outlook continues to assume significant capital expenditures for future products and growth, particularly in St. Louis and Charleston. This ramp-up was seen in our third-quarter CapEx spend, which we now expect to be closer to $3 billion for the year.

    我們將繼續致力於加強資產負債表,並維持我們的投資等級評級。關於現金流,我們仍預期第四季將為正,不考慮司法部可能支付的款項的影響。這項展望仍然假設未來產品和成長需要大量的資本支出,尤其是在聖路易斯和查爾斯頓。這種成長體現在我們第三季的資本支出上,我們現在預計全年資本支出將接近 30 億美元。

  • Net-net, even with the higher CapEx, our better-than-expected performance year-to-date supports updating our 2025 outlook to a free cash flow usage of about $2.5 billion, barring the impact of a prolonged government shutdown. Okay. Let's sum it all up. Another quarter of progress in our recovery. While the 777 reset was disappointing, our overall performance continues to trend favorably.

    總而言之,即使資本支出較高,我們今年迄今好於預期的業績也支持我們將 2025 年的展望更新為自由現金流使用量約為 25 億美元,前提是不考慮政府長期停擺的影響。好的。讓我們總結一下。我們的復甦進程又向前邁進了四分之一。雖然 777 的重置令人失望,但我們的整體業績繼續呈現良好趨勢。

  • This includes receiving limited FAA delegation to issue 737 and 787 airworthiness certificates, transitioning to higher 737 and 787 production rates, delivering improved performance across the company as well as generating positive free cash flow in the quarter. Broadly speaking, the markets we serve continue to be significant in our backlog of more than $600 billion demonstrates the strength of our portfolio.

    這包括獲得美國聯邦航空管理局有限的授權來頒發 737 和 787 適航證書,過渡到更高的 737 和 787 生產率,提高公司整體業績,以及在本季度產生正的自由現金流。總的來說,我們所服務的市場仍然非常重要,我們超過 6000 億美元的積壓訂單證明了我們投資組合的實力。

  • Long term, these fundamentals underpin our confidence in managing the business with a long-term view built on safety, quality and delivering for our customers. With that, let's open up the call for questions.

    從長遠來看,這些基本要素支撐著我們對以安全、品質和為客戶服務為核心,以長遠眼光管理業務的信心。接下來,我們開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

    (操作說明)邁爾斯·沃爾頓,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Jay, what is the negative cash flow in 2026 on the 777X in totality or versus this year? And as you look out, how soon after first delivery can that program get to a neutral position from a cash perspective?

    Jay,777X 在 2026 年的負現金流量總額是多少?或者與今年相比又是多少?展望未來,從現金流的角度來看,該專案在首次交付後多久才能達到收支平衡?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Thanks for the question. So as I mentioned before, it's a headwind relative to our prior expectations of $2 billion. So I'd expect the overall absolute cash flow to be usage. It's a little bit higher than that. As far as how we get to call it, say, breakeven neutrality type of free cash flow, we've talked about this a little bit in the past. So next year will be a heavy use year. The year after that will be better in 2027 and then we would expect ourselves to get closer to neutral in 2028.

    當然。謝謝你的提問。正如我之前提到的,這與我們之前預期的 20 億美元相比是一個不利因素。所以我預計整體絕對現金流將是使用量。比那略高一些。至於我們如何稱之為損益平衡中性類型的自由現金流,我們過去已經稍微討論過這個問題。所以明年將是使用量龐大的一年。接下來的一年,也就是 2027 年,情況會好轉,然後我們預期到 2028 年會更接近中性。

  • And that's all on the back of improving payments from aircraft deliveries and advances. So again, next year, we'll build up inventory. There'll be limited advances and delivery payments. But in 2027, we'll start to see those benefits and those will continue to ramp up in '20 and beyond. So I would expect starting in 2029, neutrality will go to a benefit of positive free cash flow for the program.

    這一切都得益於飛機交付和預付款支付的改善。所以明年,我們將繼續增加庫存。預付款和貨款支付將受到限制。但到了 2027 年,我們將開始看到這些好處,而這些好處將在 2020 年及以後繼續增加。因此,我預計從 2029 年開始,中性局面將有利於該專案獲得正的自由現金流。

  • And so look, all told, next year is going to be a little bit heavy, but it will continue to improve from year-over-year from that point.

    所以總的來說,明年可能會有點艱難,但從那時起,情況會逐年好轉。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Okay. And sorry, just to clarify one thing. Is that 2026 usage of cash on 777X, so it's about similar to 2025 usage when all is said done?

    好的。還有一件事不好意思,要澄清一下。這是 777X 在 2026 年的現金使用嗎?如果是這樣,那麼最終結果與 2025 年的使用情況大致相同?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, that's a good way of looking at it, but perhaps maybe a little bit higher, but in that zone.

    是的,這是一個很好的看待問題的角度,但或許可以再高一點,不過還是在這個範圍內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

    羅恩愛潑斯坦,美國銀行。

  • Ronald J. Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald J. Epstein - Analyst

  • So maybe back on the 777, I'm certainly bombarded with these, so apologies for that. But what's driving this now? Like what changed from like just two, three months ago to reevaluate what's going on with the program. Yes. I guess that's the question. Like what changed to really make the focus on this now?

    所以,回到777飛機上,我一定會被這些電話轟炸,對此我深感抱歉。但現在是什麼因素在推動這一切?例如,與兩三個月前相比,發生了什麼變化,需要重新評估專案的進度。是的。我想這就是問題所在。是什麼原因導致現在人們的關注點集中在這方面?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Yes. So Ron, first of all, let me reiterate what I said in the prepared remarks. There's no new issues with the airplane itself or the engines -- the test program. Ironically, we have more hours in the maturity of this airplane is probably higher than any other airplane we've been through the test program. The issue is solely around getting the certification work complete.

    是的。羅恩,首先,讓我重申一下我在準備好的演講稿中所說的話。飛機本身或引擎都沒有出​​現新的問題——測試計畫一切正常。諷刺的是,這架飛機的飛行小時數比我們測試過的任何其他飛機都要多,其成熟度可能也更高。問題僅在於如何完成認證工作。

  • We had anticipated getting TIA approval. That's what's needed to actually get certain credit when we fly those particular tests. We have not been able to achieve the certification credit. And that's because we haven't gotten the TIA approval. So look, we've taken a step back.

    我們原本預期會獲得TIA的批准。這是我們進行這些特定測試飛行時,要想獲得相應認可所必需的。我們未能獲得認證學分。那是因為我們還沒有獲得TIA的批准。所以你看,我們退後了一步。

  • We very much underestimated how much work it was going to take for us to get the TIA approvals and for the FAA to have the opportunity to review all the data submissions that are required. So we stepped back and we've rebase lined this program to incorporate those learnings as Jay said.

    我們嚴重低估了獲得 TIA 批准以及讓 FAA 有機會審查所有必需的資料提交所需的工作量。因此,我們退後一步,重新調整了這個項目,以納入傑伊所說的這些經驗教訓。

  • And the philosophy I want here is I don't want this to be a continuous quarterly issue for us to make sure we have a solid financial estimate here that we have a high level of confidence that we can get this certification work done. Now recognize that some of this is still not in our control. We're working very closely with the FAA. I'm hopeful that there's opportunities for us to improve upon some of this. I think I've talked to the administrator Bedford and I think he also agrees that we need to look for ways to streamline the process.

    我希望秉持的理念是,我們不希望這成為一個持續的季度性問題,我們需要確保我們有一個可靠的財務估算,並且我們有很高的信心能夠完成這項認證工作。但也要意識到,其中有些事情仍然不在我們的控制範圍內。我們正與美國聯邦航空管理局密切合作。我希望我們有機會在某些方面進行改進。我想我和管理員貝德福德談過了,我想他也同意我們需要想辦法簡化流程。

  • But in effect, this is a result of us realizing that the plan we had in place to get the certification approvals just was not realistic going forward.

    但實際上,這是因為我們意識到,我們之前製定的獲得認證批准的計劃,在未來並不現實。

  • Ronald J. Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald J. Epstein - Analyst

  • And just one clarification, if I may. On the TIA, what's really slowing that down? Is it on the FAA side? Or is it that there was something that you guys didn't understand about What would be.

    如果可以的話,我再澄清一點。在TIA上,真正減緩其速度的是什麼?是FAA方面的問題嗎?或者說,你們對「將會是什麼」這件事本身有什麼不理解的地方?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • It's a little of both, Ron. I would say it's that this is the first airplane that we've gone through this incremental TIA process like this. And I think there was learning in what analysis and data we had to have complete and submitted to get the TIA approval. So some of that's for us. And I think it's taken longer as well for the FAA to go through those submittals and get the approval.

    羅恩,兩者兼而有之。我想說,這是我們第一次經歷這種漸進式TIA流程的飛機。我認為,在獲得 TIA 批准的過程中,我們學到了需要完成和提交哪些分析和數據。所以其中一部分是屬於我們的。而且我認為,美國聯邦航空管理局審核這些申請並獲得批准也花了更長的時間。

  • So I'm certainly not throwing the FAA under the bus with this. This is a learning collectively for the both of us in terms of what it takes to get through the new process. And again, as I said, we've tried to do our best to put a conservative estimate here in place that accommodates us continuing having a slower process than what we had originally planned for these TIA approvals. Now I don't anticipate because of the maturity of the airplane. Once we get the approvals, I think the flight testing should go reasonably quickly. But again, it's the analysis, the paperwork to submittal and the approval process is really the big learning here.

    所以我當然不是在這件事上把美國聯邦航空管理局(FAA)出賣給別人。對我們兩人來說,這是一個共同的學習過程,讓我們了解如何才能順利度過這個新階段。正如我之前所說,我們已經盡力做出一個保守的估計,以應對TIA審批流程比我們最初計劃的要慢的情況。現在我並不擔心,因為這架飛機已經很成熟了。一旦獲得批准,我認為飛行測試應該很快就會進行。但話說回來,真正值得學習的是分析、文件準備、提交和審批過程。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

    Robert Stallard,Vertical Research。

  • Robert Stallard - Analyst

    Robert Stallard - Analyst

  • Welcome back, Jay. I hate to do follow-up on the 777X here. The charges of EUR4.9 billion is perhaps larger than was anticipated. So I wonder if you could maybe work through some of the moving parts here. And then probably for Kelly, in conjunction with that how are you expecting to manage the 777X supply chain given this delay?

    歡迎回來,傑伊。我不太想在這裡繼續討論777X的問題。49億歐元的罰款金額可能比預期的要高。所以我想知道您是否可以幫忙梳理這裡的一些細節。那麼,對於凱利來說,考慮到此次延誤,您打算如何管理 777X 的供應鏈?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • All right. Let me start with the magnitude of the charges build upon the comments that I made during the prepared remarks. With the delay in the certification, we had to revise our production plans on the program with a focus on mitigating additional precertification airplane builds and provisioning for a higher confidence long-term production plan, the primary driver of the charge.

    好的。首先,我想根據我在事先準備好的發言中提到的內容,談談這些指控的嚴重性。由於認證延遲,我們不得不修改該項目的生產計劃,重點是減少額外的認證前飛機製造,並為更有把握的長期生產計劃做好準備,這是此次收費的主要驅動因素。

  • And when you kind of break that down, the schedule to lay simply had a broad impact through the elements of the production system. The longer period of performance or holding period, however you want to describe it, combined with a slower ramp rate it adds substantial carrying cost to the program.

    當你仔細分析時,你會發現鋪設進度表對生產系統的各個環節都產生了廣泛的影響。無論你怎麼描述,較長的執行期或維持期,再加上較慢的爬坡速度,都會為專案帶來相當大的營運成本。

  • It also affected the learning curve with the slower ramp. And even the aircraft that are going to be reworked are so going to be held for a longer period of time adding cost to them. So as we mentioned, we have a higher confidence plan from a schedule and cost perspective on here so that we've got ourselves protected. If you compare this to other charges, particularly those that we had last year, as I mentioned during my prepared remarks, we are carrying higher provisions for the built aircraft require work the production disruption and the learning curve all of which are simply better informed by current experience.

    這也影響了學習曲線,使其成長速度變慢。即使是需要進行改裝的飛機,也會因此被扣留更長時間,增加成本。正如我們之前提到的,從進度和成本的角度來看,我們有一個更有信心的計劃,這樣我們就能保障自身利益。如果將此與其他費用進行比較,特別是我們去年的費用,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的,我們為已建成的飛機提提了更高的準備金,這些準備金用於應對生產中斷和學習曲線,所有這些都可以根據當前的經驗得到更好的指導。

  • So as you would expect, the team is just not going to sit here and take this lightly and hasn't taken it likely going to our focus, we are all focused on doing everything we can to improve the long-term productivity on this program, while also working to mitigate the total delay impact to our customers the best we can. But this baseline puts us in that position to be able to not only beat it, but potentially beat it.

    不出所料,團隊不會坐視不理,也絕對不會掉以輕心。我們正全力以赴,盡一切努力提高該專案的長期生產力,同時盡最大努力減輕延誤對客戶的影響。但這一基準使我們不僅能夠戰勝它,而且有可能戰勝它。

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Yes. And Rob, let me just talk a little bit about the supply chain. I think the answer is we just have to flow the new revised schedule out to our suppliers. And then we're going to have to negotiate on a case-by-case basis the impact that has to the various suppliers. And depending on the commodity, the impact might be significant or might be fairly insignificant. So we're going to have to work through that. I'll just say that the revised estimate and the charge here contemplated the impact of the supply chain as well.

    是的。羅布,讓我簡單談談供應鏈。我認為解決辦法是我們只需要把新的修訂計畫傳達給我們的供應商。然後,我們需要逐案協商這會對各個供應商造成的影響。根據商品的不同,影響可能很大,也可能微不足道。所以我們必須想辦法解決這個問題。我只想說,修訂後的估算和收費也考慮了供應鏈的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

    Noah Poponak,高盛集團。

  • Noah Poponak - Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Analyst

  • Kelly, Jay, could you speak a little bit more about the 737 ramp from here? And I guess, do the remaining months of this year have 42 production units? Or is there some spacing before we actually see that for any reason? And then as you go higher, on the one hand, it's not easy and supply chain is still tough, but on the other hand, I think you're intentionally holding inventory for that reason. And it seems like you have a lot of buffer in the stations at 42 to break to 47.

    Kelly、Jay,你們能再詳細介紹一下從這裡到737停機坪的狀況嗎?那麼,今年剩下的幾個月裡,產量是 42 個單位嗎?或者,出於某種原因,在我們實際看到它之前會有一段間隔?然後,隨著價格上漲,一方面,這並不容易,供應鏈仍然很緊張,但另一方面,我認為你正是因為這個原因才有意持有庫存。看起來你在 42 號站有很多緩衝時間,可以突破到 47 號站。

  • Then I think beyond that, you start to layer in a new line. So I guess that six months you've spoken to you, Kelly, should we all be assuming that for the 42 to 47 to 52 or is each of those breaks? Or is that too aggressive of an assumption?

    然後我覺得,在此基礎上,你可以開始加入新的元素。所以我想,你跟我談了六個月,凱莉,我們是不是都應該假設這 42 到 47 到 52 是連續的,還是說這些時間段都是間歇期?或者這種假設過於武斷?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Okay. So let me start with the first part of the question, which is just when do we get to 42 here for the balance of the year? So recognized, no, when we say we're at a 42 rate, that's a rate that we flow in the factory. Not every month, depending on the number of days in the month, the number of workdays in the month would that necessarily equate to a rollout of 42. And just recognize that for the we've got the holidays coming up in both November and December.

    好的。那麼,讓我先回答問題的第一部分,那就是,在今年剩餘的時間裡,我們什麼時候才能達到 42 歲?所以,我們承認,不,當我們說我們的生產率為 42 時,那是指我們在工廠的生產率。並非每個月都會如此,這取決於當月的天數,當月的工作日數量並不一定等於 42 個工作天。也要意識到,11月和12月都是假期。

  • We are, as we speak, rolling at the 42 rate. So we've, as you know, we test our supply and our own processes before we actually go to that rate, we do some pretesting. So we've gone ahead and we're loading now at the 42 rate. So I'm planning that we will exit the year very soundly at the 42 a month rate. So that's our plan, and I think we're in good shape to do that.

    我們現在正以 42 的速度前進。如您所知,在真正達到那個速度之前,我們會對我們的供應和我們自己的流程進行測試,我們會進行一些預測試。所以我們已經開始裝貨,現在以 42 的速度裝貨。所以我計劃以每月 42 美元的價格穩健地結束今年。這就是我們的計劃,我認為我們有能力實現這個計劃。

  • As you mentioned then, we'll go to the next would be the 47. I mentioned in the prepared remarks, not earlier than six months because we need time to go to the new rate, demonstrate stability and then as we did this time, test ourselves at a higher rate and in many cases, when you test yourselves at the higher rate, there's actions you have to take to go improve and ensure that we're ready to go.

    正如你剛才提到的,接下來我們要去的地方是第 47 站。我在準備好的演講稿中提到,不會早於六個月,因為我們需要時間來適應新的利率,證明穩定性,然後像這次一樣,以更高的利率進行自我測試。在很多情況下,當你以更高的利率進行自我測試時,你必須採取一些措施來改進,並確保我們做好準備。

  • So we don't think we can do that faster than six months. And I will just reiterate what I said when we started this campaign here a year ago is it's way more impactful for us to move when we're not ready then to hold off and wait until we're ready. And we will not go to the next rate until we show the maturity in the system. I'd much rather be a month late, then go a month early in this process.

    所以我們認為最快也要六個月才能完成。我只想重申一年前我們發起這項活動時說過的話:在我們還沒準備好的時候採取行動,比等到準備就緒再行動更有影響力。在我們證明系統已經成熟之前,我們不會提高利率。在這個過程中,我寧願晚一個月,也不願早一個月。

  • And I think we've clearly demonstrated that if we deliver do the right thing, make sure we're meeting our key metrics, we can actually move faster than we planned. So in terms of the follow-on cadence, I think you're right now in that we've got a significant inventory right now, and that's clearly boosting us from going from 38% to 42%. We'll also still help us when we go to 42% to 47%.

    我認為我們已經清楚地證明,如果我們做正確的事,確保達到關鍵指標,我們實際上可以比計劃中的速度更快。所以就後續節奏而言,我認為你現在說得對,我們目前有大量的庫存,這顯然使我們的庫存從 38% 提高到 42%。即使我們達到 42% 到 47%,我們仍然會有所幫助。

  • But at that point, I think we start to get more, I'll say aligned with the supply chain in terms of inventory balances and their expectations. So we'll have to watch that. That will be the rates above 47, I think will be as much on how is our maturity looking, but also how is the supply chain ramping up. We've got time to work those things. I don't see anything right now that tells me we can't do that.

    但到了那個時候,我認為我們開始與供應鏈在庫存平衡及其預期方面更加協調。所以我們需要密切注意這一點。我認為高於 47 的利率,很大程度上取決於我們的債務成熟度,以及供應鏈的加速運作。我們有時間處理這些事情。目前我沒有看到任何跡象表明我們不能這樣做。

  • But that's how I kind of look at that. So if you were doing -- if you were pegging these all in six-month increments, I'd say the first six months are going to be easier than the following rate increases in terms of hitting that six months exactly.

    但我就是這麼看的。所以,如果你要以六個月為單位來製定這些計劃,那麼我認為,前六個月的利率成長會比接下來的六個月更容易實現,因為要精確地達到這六個月的目標。

  • Noah Poponak - Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Analyst

  • Okay. And how will the process with the FAA compare going to 47 and 52 compared to when you did getting to 40 ?

    好的。那麼,從47歲到52歲,與你當初升到40歲時相比,向美國聯邦航空管理局(FAA)申請駕照的流程會有什麼不同呢?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Yes, we're going to use the exact same process. In fact, when we did the 5 to 7 on the 787, we use the same metrics and the same Capstone review process that we use just now moving from 38 to 42. I think both sides will understand the process and think it's a good process. So we just use that same one as well on this mini break up rate 8 on the 787. So I feel pretty good that the process is in place.

    是的,我們將採用完全相同的流程。事實上,當我們對 787 進行 5 到 7 的升級時,我們使用了與現在從 38 到 42 升級時相同的指標和相同的頂點審查流程。我認為雙方都會理解這個過程,並且認為這是一個很好的過程。所以我們也對 787 的這個迷你解散率 8 使用了同樣的數值。所以我覺得流程到位後情況會很好。

  • I don't think getting through that. It might have taken a little bit longer with this first approval with the FAA, but they did a good job in moving pretty quickly. They have to coordinate with a lot of stakeholders as well. So I think -- I don't think the process is going to be an impediment in the future. I think it's more are we ready? Is the supply chain ready? And when that happens, then I think we have a good process to go get approval.

    我覺得過不了那關。雖然第一次獲得美國聯邦航空管理局的批准可能花的時間稍長一些,但他們的進展速度很快,做得很好。他們還需要與許多利害關係人進行協調。所以我認為——我不認為這個過程將來會成為障礙。我覺得更該問的是:我們準備好了嗎?供應鏈準備好了嗎?當這種情況發生時,我認為我們就有一個很好的流程去獲得批准。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Arment, Baird.

    Peter Arment,Baird。

  • Peter Arment - Analyst

    Peter Arment - Analyst

  • Kelly, maybe could you talk a little bit more about the -- what's left for certification on the -7 and 10. It sounds like you've got a lot of confidence around it. But what are the milestones or the way we should be thinking about what's left here just given the enormous amount of testing hours and things that you've done here.

    Kelly,您能否再多談談-7和-10認證還剩下哪些內容?聽起來你對此很有信心。但是,考慮到你們在這裡投入的大量測試時間和精力,我們應該如何看待剩下的工作,以及我們應該設定哪些里程碑或採取哪些措施?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Yes. So we've got -- as I mentioned, we've got a significant number of hours of testing on this NII design. So what we've got to do is go make modifications to the test aircraft and they're both hardware and software modifications and then we go through the process, the certification of those steps with the FAA. It's pretty straightforward. And the anti-ice is still the critical path -- is still the critical path for both certifications -- now if you take the engine anti-ice out of it, there is still work to be done to complete the certification.

    是的。正如我剛才提到的,我們已經對這個 NII 設計進行了大量的測試。所以,我們必須對測試飛機進行改裝,包括硬體和軟體方面的改裝,然後我們還要走完相關流程,通過美國聯邦航空管理局的認證。很簡單。防冰仍然是關鍵路徑——仍然是兩項認證的關鍵路徑——即使去掉發動機防冰,要完成認證仍然有很多工作要做。

  • Probably a little more work on the -10 than -7, but not near the magnitude of what we're experiencing with the 777X program. So we think it's pretty straightforward to get through the certification of the design. We've got a lot of test data, a lot of analysis that will help us move quickly through that. And as I said, we're still planning on getting that done here in '26.

    -10 的工作量可能比 -7 多一些,但遠不及我們在 777X 專案中遇到的困難。所以我們認為通過設計認證應該相當簡單。我們有很多測試數據和分析結果,這將有助於我們快速推進這項工作。正如我所說,我們仍然計劃在 2026 年完成這項工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Sipan, JPMorgan.

    Seth Sipan,摩根大通。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the 87. You mentioned the recent Capstone review and how we can think about kind of the way you went through the 37, the flow of rate increase is coming on the 87 and what some of the kind of key things you're watching are there, whether it's internal or whether it's in the supply chain, having to do with structures or engines or anything like that? And then also, whether you've kind of burned through some of the concessions there and starting to get to a better place of cash profitability on that program?

    我想問一下關於87號車的事。您提到了最近的Capstone審查,以及我們如何思考您處理37號公路的方式,87號公路即將迎來費率上漲,以及您正在關注的一些關鍵事項,無論是內部的還是供應鏈中的,與結構、發動機或其他類似方面有關?此外,你是否已經用完了一些優惠條件,並且開始在該項目上獲得更好的現金獲利能力?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Yes. So the cadence of production increase is a little bit different story than on MAX. Obviously, the -- we weren't shut down on MAX. And so we didn't -- on 787 through the strike. So we didn't -- we don't have the level of inventory that we have on the MAX program.

    是的。所以,產量成長的節奏與 MAX 的情況略有不同。顯然,我們並沒有在 MAX 上停駛。所以,在罷工期間,我們沒有搭乘 787 號班機。所以我們沒有——我們沒有 MAX 計劃中那樣的庫存水準。

  • So our next rate increase will be from this 8%, which we should be at 8 by the end of the year and then we'll move to 10 next year. I do think on 787, the move from 8 to 10 in will be more challenging for us with the supply chain, particularly seats. We're continuing, as I've mentioned in previous calls, we're continuing to struggle with seat certifications. I think that's going to be with us for a little bit longer. We are making progress on that.

    因此,我們下一次的利率上調將從目前的 8% 開始,到年底我們應該會達到 8%,然後明年我們將上調到 10%。我認為,對於 787 機型來說,從 8 人座增加到 10 人座在供應鏈方面,特別是座椅方面,將會給我們帶來更大的挑戰。正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的,我們仍在努力解決席位認證問題。我認為這種情況還會持續一段時間。我們在這方面正在取得進展。

  • But I think seats will continue to be a constraining item for us. And then just the general supply chain on 787 because we don't have the buffer. We want to make sure that we're stable here at 8 a month rate before we go to 10. So we're planning to do that sometime next year. I'm not going to put a month on the on that yet.

    但我認為座位數量仍將是我們面臨的限制因素。然後就是787的整體供應鏈問題,因為我們沒有緩衝空間。我們希望確保每月 8 美元的利率穩定下來,然後再提高到 10 美元。所以我們計劃明年某個時候做這件事。我現在還不會把時間定在一個月之內。

  • Maybe as we get to some stability at rate eight, we'll fine-tune that.

    或許等到利率穩定在 8 的時候,我們會做一些微調。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    Sheila Kahyaoglu,傑富瑞集團。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • The Q3 free cash flow number was solid. And Jay, you mentioned positive core free cash flow in Q4 pre the DOJ payment. So curious what BCA rates are underpinning that positive free cash flow. And just all bet a modest Q4 free cash flow exit rate, just a modest number. How do we think about 2026? Is it breakeven? Is it some low to mid-single-digit inflow of cash? Is that still doable?

    第三季自由現金流數據表現穩健。傑伊,你提到在司法部付款之前,第四季核心自由現金流為正。很好奇支撐正自由現金流的BCA利率是多少。而且,我們只押注第四季自由現金流退出率不會很高,只是一個很低的數字。我們如何看待2026年?能達到損益平衡嗎?是數額較低到中等的個位數現金流入嗎?這現在還可行嗎?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. Thanks, Sheila. Let me just kind of baseline you on our discussions and our update for 2025. If you recall last quarter, we talked about a usage of $3 billion for the full year. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks and would you just indicated as well, Sheila, is that better by $500 million to about $2.5 billion based on the better performance year-to-date.

    好的。謝謝你,希拉。讓我先簡單介紹一下我們的討論內容以及我們對 2025 年的最新進展。如果你還記得上個季度的話,我們討論過全年使用30億美元。正如我在準備好的發言稿中提到的,希拉,你剛才也指出了這一點,根據今年迄今為止更好的業績,這是否意味著收入增加了 5 億美元,達到約 25 億美元。

  • Let me -- what I'll do is I'll bridge you from the third-quarter into the fourth-quarter, so $200 million. When you go from that number, we expect a nice inflow based on seasonality, particularly at BDS with the Tanker award. And so we'd expect an uptick there about in excess of $1 billion from BDS. Partially offsetting that is BCA volumes. Right now, we're holding anywhere to slightly down from the third-quarter in terms of deliveries to maybe flat.

    讓我來——我會幫你把第三季度過渡到第四季度,也就是 2 億美元。從這個數字來看,我們預計會根據季節性因素獲得不錯的流入,尤其是在 BDS 獲得油輪獎勵之後。因此,我們預計 BDS 將帶來超過 10 億美元的成長。BCA 銷量在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。目前,我們預計交付量將比第三季略有下降,甚至可能持平。

  • But more importantly, in there, even if we're flat, we will see lower receipts because we've got a kind of just a mix headwind where we're expecting lower 777 deliveries in the fourth-quarter. So that will be somewhat of a headwind.

    但更重要的是,即使我們保持平穩,我們也會看到訂單量下降,因為我們面臨各種不利因素,預計第四季度777的交付量將下降。所以這會是一個不小的阻力。

  • The next is interest expense or interest payments. Again, we have a seasonality aspect to it. So the payments in the fourth-quarter will be more similar to what we saw in the second-quarter. So it's about $900 million plus in the fourth-quarter, and that's a step up in outflow of about $600 million.

    接下來是利息支出或利息支付。這同樣與季節性因素有關。因此,第四季的支付情況將與第二季的情況更加相似。所以第四季大約是 9 億美元以上,比上一季增加了約 6 億美元。

  • And then finally, we've got the DOJ payment. We've talked about that in the past, which is about 700. So when you reconcile all those items before the potential DOJ payment, you're in the range of positive $500 million. With the payment, that would swing into a negative net-net. But again, operationally, we'll see better performance in the fourth-quarter relative to the third and a pretty good exit rate as we think about next year. As I think about next year, look, it's encouraging what we've seen so far.

    最後,我們收到了司法部的付款。我們以前討論過這個問題,大約是 700。因此,在司法部可能付款之前,當你把所有這些項目都核對一遍後,你會發現淨收入在 5 億美元左右。加上這筆款項,淨收益將變為負數。但從營運角度來看,第四季業績將比第三季更好,而且展望明年,退出率也會相當不錯。展望明年,就目前來看,情況令人鼓舞。

  • The performance has improved throughout the year. We see that particularly in the free cash flow on an operating basis. But it's early for me to really make a strong kind of call on that right now, I'm still going through the planning process. There's a lot more that I need to get into in terms of the puts and takes on the full year basis for next year.

    今年以來,球隊表現持續提升。這一點在經營活動產生的自由現金流中尤其明顯。但我現在就此做出明確的決定還為時過早,我仍在進行規劃過程。關於明年全年的買賣策略,我還有很多需要詳細探討的內容。

  • And I'll give you just a lot more color on that in January. But as I mentioned, things are trending favorably, and we're bullish on our outlook.

    一月我會詳細介紹這方面的狀況。但正如我所說,目前情況朝著有利的方向發展,我們對前景持樂觀態度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

    史考特‧德施勒,德意志銀行。

  • Scott Deuschle - Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Analyst

  • Just a follow-up on that last question, Jay. I was wondering if you could share your perspective on this $10 billion free cash flow target the company set out there for a while. And just more specifically, is that a target that you're willing to endorse? And if so, do you think the business is on the trajectory to achieve it in the next handful of years?

    傑伊,我還有一個關於你上一個問題的後續問題。我想請您分享您對公司先前設定的100億美元自由現金流目標的看法。更具體地說,你是否願意支持這個目標?如果真是如此,您認為公司能否在未來幾年朝著這個目標發展?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Scott, for the question. Just maybe taking a step back in the 2.5 months that I've been here. Overall, as I mentioned in the prior question, we've made great progress this year. We still have plenty of runway to go as we stabilize the business and complete the development programs. Right now, my observation is the foundation is in place and that will lead to steady and gradual improvement over the upcoming years and I expect the financials to flow.

    謝謝斯科特的提問。或許我在這裡的這兩個半月裡,需要退後一步。總的來說,正如我在上一個問題中提到的,我們今年取得了巨大的進步。我們還有充足的時間,可以穩定業務並完成發展計劃。目前來看,基礎已經打好,這將在未來幾年帶來穩定漸進的改善,我預期財務狀況也會好轉。

  • Again, just like for next year, it's really a little early for me to comment on a specific long-term framework, but I'm confident in the underlying cash generation capability for us to return historical levels that you've seen before. You've got a great backlog and operational excellence will be the key to unlocking our cash flow potential. Over the coming months, I plan on assessing our operating plans and the cash flow of the drivers to develop the framework and I look forward to presenting that to you at the appropriate time. But it's just a little early for me to do that right now.

    同樣,就像明年一樣,現在評論具體的長期框架還為時過早,但我對我們潛在的現金流生成能力充滿信心,相信我們能夠恢復到你們以前看到的歷史水平。你們積壓了大量訂單,而卓越的營運將是釋放我們現金流潛力的關鍵。在接下來的幾個月裡,我計劃評估我們的營運計劃和各業務部門的現金流,以建立相關框架,並期待在適當的時候向您報告。但對我來說,現在做這件事還為時過早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

    克莉絲汀‧利瓦格,摩根士丹利。

  • Kristine Liwag - Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Analyst

  • Kelly, you mentioned that the Jefferson deal is closing next quarter. You also received approval from the EU for the Spirit deal two weeks ago. Taking a step back, can you share your thoughts on how you think about the Boeing portfolio today, your priorities for M&A? And also any color on the effect of these two items and free cash flow next year?

    凱利,你提到傑斐遜的交易將在下個季度完成。兩週前,你們也獲得了歐盟對Spirit交易的批准。退一步講,您能否分享一下您對波音公司目前業務組合的看法,以及您在併購方面的優先事項?另外,能否透露這兩項指標對明年自由現金流的影響?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Well, look, I think the two items here that we've got imminently in front of us our focus from an M&A perspective here right now getting through the Jefferson close pretty close on that. I think that's likely going to close a little bit before the Spirit transaction. And as you said, we've got EU approval on Spirit, but we're still waiting for the US approval with Spirit. We don't see any showstoppers here, but we expect to get that done.

    嗯,你看,我認為我們眼前迫在眉睫的兩件事,從併購的角度來看,我們現在的重點是盡快完成傑佛遜的交易。我認為這筆交易可能會在 Spirit 的交易完成前不久完成。正如您所說,我們已經獲得了歐盟對 Spirit 的批准,但我們仍在等待美國對 Spirit 的批准。我們目前沒有看到任何重大問題,但我們預計能夠完成這項工作。

  • And then we're on to the integration phase. We have to de-integrate the Jefferson business from our digital of business. We've got great plans to do that and then the reintegration of our Spirit business, and that will come over the next couple of months after we get into the close. So look, that's our focus right now. I don't have any other areas to point you to in terms of M&A for us right now.

    接下來就進入整合階段了。我們必須將傑斐遜的業務從我們的數位化業務中分離出來。我們有很好的計劃來實現這一點,然後重新整合我們的烈酒業務,這將在我們完成交易後的幾個月內進行。所以,這就是我們目前的重點。目前,在併購方面,我沒有其他領域可以向您推薦。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Harned, Bernstein.

    道格·哈內德,伯恩斯坦。

  • Douglas S . Harned - Analyst

    Douglas S . Harned - Analyst

  • Kelly, at the beginning, you talked a little bit about investment in Charleston. And on the 787, our understanding had been that you can really go from 7 to 10 a month in Charleston without that much material CapEx adds but going to 12 and 14 will require more and an expansion of the facility. So when you're looking at Charleston right now, what needs to be done to go to 12 to 14 a month? And then the investment you're discussing today is that related to the 10 a month or are you already making steps toward going to those higher rates?

    凱利,一開始你談到了在查爾斯頓的投資。對於 787 機型,我們先前的理解是,在查爾斯頓,每月產量可以從 7 架增加到 10 架,而無需增加太多材料資本支出,但要增加到 12 架和 14 架,則需要更多投入和擴建設施。所以,就目前查爾斯頓的情況來看,需要做些什麼才能將每月產量提高到 12 到 14 輛?那麼,您今天討論的投資是指每月10美元的投資,還是您已經在採取措施轉向更高的利率?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Yes. We're already making steps for the higher rates. You're right, we could probably -- if we thought capping at 10 was as far as we go, we would not be investing in expanding Charles. So we're going to have a formal groundbreaking. But essentially, what you're going to see if you've been to Charleston, we're going to double the footprint manufacturing footprint.

    是的。我們已開始採取措施應對更高的利率。你說得對,我們或許可以——如果我們認為最多只能做到 10 個人,我們就不會投資擴建查爾斯了。所以我們將舉行正式的奠基儀式。但實際上,如果你去過查爾斯頓,你會發現,我們會把生產規模擴大一倍。

  • Now we don't need double, but it also gives us a lot more flexibility for some storage space as well. So a major expansion of the Charleston facility, and it's all around getting to rates higher than 10%. We think that the market demand will allow us to get to rates in the teens and that's what we're focused on putting the capital in place, getting the facilities in place. Obviously, if the facilities come online, they'll help us at rate 10, but we don't need that. And I think we're looking at really 2028 before we're really utilizing that expanded facility.

    現在我們不需要雙倍的數量,也給了我們更大的儲存空間彈性。因此,查爾斯頓工廠將進行大規模擴建,而這一切都是為了使利率高於 10%。我們認為市場需求將使我們能夠達到十幾個百分點的利率,這也是我們目前關注的重點,我們正在投入資金,落實相關設施。顯然,如果這些設施投入使用,它們將以 10 倍的速度幫助我們,但我們不需要那樣。我認為我們真正利用擴建後的設施要等到 2028 年。

  • Douglas S . Harned - Analyst

    Douglas S . Harned - Analyst

  • Can you mention at all the CapEx trajectory you're talking about for this?

    能否詳細說明一下您所說的資本支出計畫?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • We expect that to increase next year, Doug. Again, I think in the -- when we kind of gave you the '26 framework in January, we can provide more color. But there will be some higher CapEx in 2016 related to both this as well as the growth in expansion in St. Louis.

    道格,我們預計明年這個數字還會成長。再次,我認為——當我們在1月向你們展示了2026年的框架時,我們可以提供更多細節。但 2016 年,由於聖路易斯地區的擴張,資本支出將會增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

    Gautam Khanna,TD Cowen。

  • Gautam Khanna - Analyst

    Gautam Khanna - Analyst

  • Welcome, Jay. Kelly and Jay, I know you touched on seat certification as a potential constraint on 87 production hikes. I was just wondering more broadly, if you can talk about where you see the pinch points in the supply chain today and kind of across the programs as you move forward in rate, where are you most concerned that bottlenecks may emerge?

    歡迎你,傑伊。Kelly 和 Jay,我知道你們提到過座椅認證可能會限制 87 型飛機的產量成長。我只是想更廣泛地了解一下,您能否談談您認為目前供應鏈的瓶頸在哪裡,以及隨著專案推進速度的提升,您最擔心哪些環節可能會出現瓶頸?

  • Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

    Kelly Ortberg - President and Chief Executive Office

  • Yes. So again, I made a few comments on this already. I think you do need to break down between the 737 supply chain and the 787 or the widebody supply chain because we have this excessive amount of inventory. So look, I think in general, I would just comment that the supply chain is doing well. We do have constraints still around seating, but we know what those are.

    是的。所以,我之前已經就此發表了一些評論。我認為確實需要將737供應鏈與787或寬體客機供應鏈分開分析,因為我們目前庫存過剩。所以總的來說,我認為供應鏈運作良好。我們在座位安排方面仍然存在一些限制,但我們知道這些限制是什麼。

  • We've got specific actions with the suppliers. And some of that is on Boeing to get the actual seat installations certified on the aircraft. So we're working through those. There's nothing else I would highlight. I mean we have to watch the continued demand on the engines in both the forward fit and the aftermarket and the durability upgrades that are going on in the market.

    我們已針對供應商制定了具體行動方案。其中一部分責任在於波音公司,他們需要確保飛機上的座椅安裝獲得認證。所以我們正在努力解決這些問題。沒有其他需要特別強調的了。我的意思是,我們必須密切關注當前市場和售後市場對引擎的持續需求,以及市場上正在進行的耐久性升級。

  • So that will be an area that we'll continue to work with GE and CFM on. But there's nothing I would particularly focus on. But this really is one of these things where that could change tomorrow. We have to keep tabs on all of our supply chain we need all the parts.

    所以,這將是我們繼續與GE和CFM合作的領域。但我並沒有特別想關注的地方。但這件事明天就可能會改變。我們必須密切注意整個供應鏈,確保所有零件都供應充足。

  • But I think in general, we're doing well. I think people also are gaining confidence in our ability to meet our production output. So the fear of people discounting our production in the supply chain, I think, is diminishing going forward as well.

    但我認為總體而言,我們做得很好。我認為人們也對我們實現生產目標的能力越來越有信心。因此,我認為,人們擔心供應鏈中有人會低估我們的產品,這種擔憂在未來也會逐漸減少。

  • Eric Hill - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Eric Hill - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Rob, time for one more question here.

    羅伯,這裡只剩下最後一個問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

    Scott Mikus,Melius Research。

  • Scott Micas - Analyst

    Scott Micas - Analyst

  • Jay, you've been at the company for 2.5 months now. Just curious, what are your early observations? What are your priorities? And given that the company will end the year with about $33 billion of cash after Jesus sold. How are you thinking about the balance sheet and what you want to do with that cash balance?

    傑伊,你已經在公司工作兩個半月了。只是好奇,你最初的觀察是什麼?你的首要任務是什麼?考慮到耶穌被出售後,該公司年底將擁有約 330 億美元的現金。您如何看待資產負債表以及您打算如何處理現金餘額?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Let me then Scott kind of work maybe backwards here. On the cash balance sheet, I think with the completion of both transactions, we'd expect the cash balance to be closer to probably in that 28% range, so high 20s, not as high as 33%. As far as observations, look, I've come in here, there's been a lot of enthusiasm. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the team has embraced me with open arms.

    是的。那麼,史考特,讓我反過來思考一下吧。從現金資產負債表來看,我認為隨著這兩筆交易的完成,我們預期現金餘額會更接近 28% 左右,也就是 20% 以上,而不是 33%。就我觀察到的情況而言,你看,我來到這裡之後,發現大家都很熱情。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,團隊熱情地接納了我。

  • It's made my transition as seamless as it can be. This fair amount that I need to get up to speed on in the company. And again, everyone is helping me do that. As far as some of the culture changes that we've seen, as Kelly mentioned, I see a lot of enthusiasm, I see a lot of excitement about the recovery that the company has embarked on.

    它讓我的過渡過程盡可能地順利。這是我需要盡快熟悉的公司事務的相當一部分。而且,大家都在幫我做到這一點。至於我們所看到的一些文化變化,正如凱利所提到的那樣,我看到了很多熱情,也看到了大家對公司已經開始的復甦計劃的興奮之情。

  • People are committed. They're dedicated and they want to be part of the improvement. So it's easy to walk in, at least easier for someone like me to walk in cold to an environment like this where everyone is really operating and working on the same direction. Overall, in terms of what I need to focus on and my priorities in the short term, it's really getting up to speed and to put myself in a position to be a valued contributor, it's maintaining the focus on fully restoring the health of our balance sheet.

    人們都很投入。他們很敬業,並且希望成為改進的一份子。所以很容易融入其中,至少像我這樣的人很容易融入這樣一個環境,​​因為每個人都朝著同一個方向努力和運作。總的來說,就我短期內需要關注的重點和優先事項而言,就是盡快跟上進度,讓自己成為一個有價值的貢獻者,並繼續專注於全面恢復我們資產負債表的健康。

  • It's enabling and driving the planned improvements of our recovery and ensuring that they are sustainable. And finally, it's keeping an eye on the future while maintaining the focus on the short-term and medium-term recovery. So again, first things first, get up to speed and then contribute and drive us and be a participant in this recovery. And again, we're on a good path here. So I'm very excited to be here.

    它能夠推動和促進我們復甦計劃中的改進措施,並確保這些措施的可持續性。最後,它既要著眼於未來,又要保持對短期和中期復甦的關注。所以,再次強調,首要任務是盡快熟悉情況,然後貢獻力量,推動我們前進,並成為這場復甦的參與者。再次證明,我們正走在正確的道路上。所以我很高興來到這裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That completes the Boeing Company's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

    波音公司2025年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。