波音 (BA) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 營收達 239 億美元,為 2018 年以來單季新高,年增 57%,主因商用飛機交付量與國防業務成長
    • 2026 年自由現金流指引維持正向 10~30 億美元,考量 Spirit AeroSystems 併購帶來約 10 億美元不利影響,CapEx 也將顯著提升
    • 全年商用飛機交付 600 架、訂單 1,173 架,創歷史新高,商用與國防事業群皆創下歷史訂單與在手訂單紀錄
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 商用飛機交付量回升,2025 年交付 600 架,創 2018 年以來新高
      • 商用與國防事業群訂單與在手訂單創新高,BCA 在手訂單達 5,670 億美元,BDS 達 850 億美元
      • 737 與 787 產線穩定提升產能,分別達到每月 42 架與 8 架,並規劃進一步擴產
      • Spirit AeroSystems 併購完成,有助於供應鏈整合、提升品質與生產效率
      • BGS(全球服務)持續成長,2025 年訂單 280 億美元、在手訂單 300 億美元,並推出新電商平台
    • 風險:
      • 777X、737-7/-10 等新機型認證進度仍有不確定性,777X 首次交付延至 2027 年
      • KC-46A 加油機等國防固定價格專案持續產生損失,Q4 再認列 5.65 億美元損失
      • 高額 CapEx 與 Spirit 併購短期內壓抑自由現金流,2026 年預計 CapEx 達 40 億美元
      • 全球地緣政治、貿易壁壘(如中國、歐洲)仍需密切關注,可能影響交付與訂單
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • BCA(商用飛機):Q4 交付 160 架,全年 600 架,營收 114 億美元,營業利潤率 -5.6%,均較去年大幅改善
    • BCA 訂單:Q4 淨訂單 336 架,全年 1,173 架,在手訂單 5,670 億美元(6,100 架)
    • 737:Q4 交付 117 架,全年 447 架,產能提升至每月 42 架,預計 2026 年提升至 47 架
    • 787:Q4 交付 27 架,全年 88 架,產能穩定於每月 8 架,2025 年訂單 395 架創新高
    • 777X:2025 年訂單 202 架,庫存支出 35 億美元,首次交付延至 2027 年
    • BDS(國防):Q4 交付 37 架,營收 74 億美元,營業利潤率 -6.8%,在手訂單 850 億美元
    • BGS(全球服務):Q4 調整後營收 51 億美元,年增 6%,調整後營業利潤率 18.6%,全年訂單 280 億美元,在手訂單 300 億美元
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年自由現金流預估 10~30 億美元,全年前半段為現金流出,下半年轉正並加速
    • 2026 年 CapEx 預估約 40 億美元,較 2025 年(30 億美元)顯著提升,主因產能擴充與 Spirit 併購
    • 長期自由現金流目標 100 億美元,管理層認為「非常可達成」
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 關於 excess advances 與 customer considerations 的金額與正常化時程?
      A: 兩者 2026 年影響相近,excess advances 消化速度較快,customer considerations 需更長時間,整體改善取決於產能提升與交付穩定。
    • Q: 10 億美元自由現金流目標是否保守?未來有機會超過?
      A: 管理層重申 100 億美元目標「非常可達成」,但需先完成認證、產能提升與國防事業群改善,未來有潛力超過 100 億美元。
    • Q: 737/787 產能提升的瓶頸與 Spirit 併購後的供應鏈風險?
      A: 42→47 架產能提升供應鏈無大問題,47→52 需供應鏈協同,Spirit 併購有助於主導產能擴充與風險控管,787 主要挑戰在於座椅認證延遲。
    • Q: BCA(商用飛機)現金利潤率短期與長期展望?Spirit 併購影響?
      A: 目前 737/787 現金利潤率偏低,未來隨產能提升、Spirit 整合與價格提升將改善,Spirit 併購長期不會顯著壓抑現金流。
    • Q: KC-46A 加油機損失與國防事業群展望?
      A: 本季損失僅限於 KC-46A,主因生產成本上升,2026 年交付目標 19 架,未來新合約將更嚴謹控管風險,PAC-3 等專案已提前投資,預期無大幅 CapEx 增加。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您的耐心等待。大家好,歡迎參加波音公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的通話將會被錄音。管理層討論和幻燈片演示,以及分析師問答環節,都將透過網路進行現場直播。(操作說明)

  • At this time, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Eric Hill, Vice President of Investor Relations for opening remarks and introductions. Mr. Hill, please go ahead.

    現在,我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁埃里克·希爾先生,請他致開幕詞並作介紹。希爾先生,請繼續。

  • Eric Hill - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Eric Hill - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Boeing's quarterly earnings call. With me today are Kelly Ortberg, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Malave, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝,早安。歡迎參加波音公司季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是波音公司總裁兼執行長凱利·奧特伯格,以及波音公司執行副總裁兼財務長傑伊·馬拉維。

  • This quarter's webcast, earnings release and presentation, which include relevant disclosures and non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website.

    本季的網路直播、收益發布和簡報(包括相關揭露和非GAAP調整表)可在我們的網站上取得。

  • Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including the ones described in our SEC filings. As always, we will leave time at the end of the call for analyst questions.

    今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,包括我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的風險和不確定性。像往常一樣,我們會在電話會議結束時留出時間供分析師提問。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Kelly Ortberg.

    接下來,我將把電話交給凱利·奧特伯格。

  • Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Eric. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining in today's call. As we start this year, we've set the foundation for our turnaround with stronger performance and record-breaking backlogs across our businesses. We haven't fully turned the corner, but we're making real progress in getting back to the Boeing everyone expects of us.

    謝謝你,埃里克。各位早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。今年伊始,我們憑藉著更強勁的業績和各業務部門創紀錄的積壓訂單,為扭虧為盈奠定了基礎。我們還沒有完全扭轉局面,但我們在恢復到大家期望的波音公司水準方面取得了真正的進展。

  • When we spoke a year ago, we were just in the early stages of our four-point plan: To stabilize our business; execute on our development programs; change our culture; and build a new future for Boeing. Today, our customers and stakeholders are seeing the difference in how we work together to uphold our commitments and deliver high-quality products and services. Before discussing the work ahead of us and our plan to meet the 2026 goals, I'll first touch on some important accomplishments in the quarter and the year that position us well for moving forward.

    一年前我們交談時,我們正處於四點計畫的早期階段:穩定業務;執行發展計畫;改變文化;為波音公司打造新的未來。如今,我們的客戶和利害關係人看到了我們在履行承諾、提供高品質產品和服務方面所做的努力和努力所帶來的改變。在討論我們未來的工作以及實現 2026 年目標的計劃之前,我首先要談談本季和本年度取得的一些重要成就,這些成就使我們為未來的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

  • In 2025, we methodically increased commercial production guided by our safety and quality plan. This enabled our team to deliver the most commercial airplane since 2018. We delivered 600 airplanes and won more than 1,100 commercial orders for the year, making this one of our highest order totals ever, as our portfolio continues to win in the market.

    2025年,我們按照安全和品質計劃,有條不紊地提高了商業化生產能力。這使得我們的團隊能夠交付自 2018 年以來最暢銷的商用飛機。我們交付了 600 架飛機,並贏得了 1100 多份商業訂單,這使本年度成為我們有史以來訂單總量最高的年份之一,我們的產品組合繼續在市場上取得成功。

  • Earlier this month, I joined Alaska Airlines as they announced their largest order ever. This was a clear reminder that our customers place their trust in us with every order, and we must keep earning that trust by delivering safe, high-quality airplanes on time. To do this, the fundamental changes we've made this past year will serve as a base for continuous improvement as we look to increase commercial production.

    本月初,我加入了阿拉斯加航空公司,當時他們宣布了有史以來最大的訂單。這清楚地提醒我們,客戶在每次下單時都對我們寄予信任,我們必須透過按時交付安全、高品質的飛機來不斷贏得這份信任。為此,我們過去一年所做的根本性改變將作為持續改善的基礎,以期提高商業產量。

  • For example, we've simplified more than 5,100 work instruction documents. These are the instructions that the mechanics and inspectors use each day to do their jobs. These type of activities reduce complexity, support consistent performance and strengthen factory health.

    例如,我們已經簡化了超過 5100 份工作指導文件。這些是機械師和檢查員每天工作時使用的操作指南。這些活動可以降低複雜性,支持穩定的性能,並增強工廠的健康發展。

  • On 737, production is stabilizing at 42 airplanes per month and we're continuing to see improvement in the program as its on-time delivery performance has improved threefold compared with the previous year. We also continued to get positive customer feedback on the quality of the airplane. As we look to move to higher rates, we use the same process as previous rate breaks, monitoring factory health and following our safety and quality plan. For production above 47, we'll add our new North Line in Everett, where facility and tooling investments are now complete, and we're executing a deliberate staffing plan to support production there.

    737 的產量已穩定在每月 42 架,而且我們看到該項目持續改進,其準時交付率比前一年提高了三倍。我們也持續收到客戶對飛機品質的正面回饋。當我們考慮提高價格時,我們採用與先前價格調整相同的流程,監控工廠健康狀況並遵循我們的安全和品質計劃。對於 47 以上的產量,我們將在埃弗雷特增設新的北線,該生產線的設施和工具投資現已完成,我們正在執行一項周密的員工配備計劃來支持那裡的生產。

  • In Charleston, the 787 program continues to progress well and is stabilizing at rate 8. I'm pleased with the operational metrics we're seeing in the factory. As an example, during the 2025, the program reduced average rework hours nearly 30% and going forward, as with the 737, we use the same disciplined processes, including monitoring our KPIs to assess readiness for the next planned rate increase to 10 airplanes per month, which is targeted for later this year. As previously announced, we're also investing in the future, breaking ground on our factory expansion to support higher rates and meet the exceptional demand for the 787.

    在查爾斯頓,787 項目繼續進展順利,目前穩定在 8 架次。我對我們工廠目前的營運指標感到滿意。例如,在 2025 年,該計劃將平均返工時間減少了近 30%。展望未來,與 737 一樣,我們採用相同的嚴謹流程,包括監控我們的關鍵績效指標,以評估是否已做好準備,迎接計劃中的下一次每月 10 架飛機的增產,目標是在今年晚些時候實現。正如先前宣布的那樣,我們也在投資未來,破土動工擴建工廠,以支持更高的產量並滿足對 787 的巨大需求。

  • We also made progress in our defense business and scored a transformational win to build the US Air Force sixth generation fighter. Over the past year, we've also focused on reducing the risk profile of our BDS development programs by driving improved performance and leveraging active management to deliver better outcomes for our customer.

    我們在國防業務方面也取得了進展,並贏得了為美國空軍建造第六代戰鬥機的變革性勝利。過去一年,我們也專注於降低 BDS 開發專案的風險狀況,透過提高績效和利用積極管理,為客戶帶來更好的結果。

  • In the quarter, our defense business also hit several key milestones. The US Navy's MQ-25 successfully completed its inaugural engine run, moving it closer to first flight. We also delivered the first operational T-7A Red Hawk to the US Air Force at Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph.

    本季度,我們的國防業務也實現了幾個重要的里程碑。美國海軍的MQ-25無人機成功完成了首次引擎試車,距離首飛又更近了一步。我們也向駐紮在聖安東尼奧-蘭多夫聯合基地的美國空軍交付了第一架可投入使用的T-7A紅鷹教練機。

  • These milestones are just a few where our programs are progressing and meeting our customer commitment. Importantly, we also ratified a new five-year labor agreement with our IAM representative workforce in St. Louis during this past quarter. Our team there is back to work, focusing on delivering and supporting our customers.

    這些里程碑只是我們專案取得進展並履行對客戶承諾的幾個例子。重要的是,上個季度我們還與聖路易斯的 IAM 代表員工批准了一項新的五年勞動協議。我們團隊已恢復工作,專注於為客戶提供產品和服務支援。

  • Before the year-end, we took another important step forward, supporting our production stability by completing the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems. Bringing together our companies, reinforces our efforts to improve safety and quality throughout our factories, operations and supply chain. There's a lot of work ahead of us with an integration of this magnitude, and we have thoughtful, detailed plans in place to help enable a smooth transition for our new teammates while maintaining continuity for our customers and suppliers.

    在年底之前,我們又向前邁出了重要一步,透過完成對 Spirit AeroSystems 的收購,為生產的穩定性提供了保障。將我們各公司整合在一起,可以加強我們為提高工廠、營運和供應鏈的安全性和品質所做的努力。如此大規模的整合工作還有很多工作要做,我們已經制定了周全的計劃,以幫助新團隊成員順利過渡,同時保持對客戶和供應商的持續服務。

  • We also successfully completed the $10.6 billion Jeppesen sale, solidifying our balance sheet while retaining essential digital capabilities for our customers. With the streamlined portfolio, our service business is well positioned to support our global commercial and defense customers.

    我們也成功完成了價值 106 億美元的 Jeppesen 出售交易,鞏固了我們的資產負債表,同時為我們的客戶保留了重要的數位化能力。憑藉精簡後的產品組合,我們的服務業務能夠更好地支援我們的全球商業和國防客戶。

  • BGS secured Boeing's largest ever commercial component services deal and our Government Services business received its highest orders ever in 2025, including a contract with the US government in the quarter to support C-17 modernization. BGS also launched a new unified e-commerce platform, which brings together Boeing's distribution portfolios of products and services into one streamlined digital destination, simplifying how customers and suppliers connect, transact and grow with the company.

    BGS 獲得了波音公司有史以來最大的商業零件服務合同,而我們的政府服務業務在 2025 年獲得了有史以來最高的訂單,其中包括本季度與美國政府簽訂的一份支持 C-17 現代化的合同。BGS 也推出了一個新的統一電子商務平台,將波音公司的產品和服務分銷組合整合到一個簡化的數位目的地,簡化了客戶和供應商與公司聯繫、交易和發展的方式。

  • Across commercial, defense and services, we've built a strong foundation for the year ahead. And while I'm proud of what we accomplished in 2025, we also know expectations are rising, and we must continue to elevate the performance that we've demonstrated over this past 12 months.

    在商業、國防和服務領域,我們為未來一年奠定了堅實的基礎。雖然我為我們在 2025 年所取得的成就感到自豪,但我們也知道人們的期望越來越高,我們必須繼續提高我們在過去 12 個月中所展現的表現。

  • As important, I am pleased with the progress we're making on culture that will ensure these improvements become a critical part of our success and further strengthen trust with our stakeholders. I remain confident in our team and our plan to deliver on the opportunities and address the challenges in front of us in the year ahead, particularly on our development programs. Past delays to the certification timelines for the new 737 MAX derivative and the 777-9 have been challenging, but we are making steady progress in performing than our revised schedule.

    同樣重要的是,我對我們在文化方面取得的進展感到滿意,這將確保這些改進成為我們成功的關鍵部分,並進一步加強與利害關係人的信任。我對我們的團隊和計劃仍然充滿信心,相信我們能夠抓住機遇,應對未來一年的挑戰,尤其是在我們的發展計劃方面。過去,737 MAX 衍生機型和 777-9 的認證時間表有所延誤,這給我們帶來了挑戰,但我們在執行修訂後的計劃方面取得了穩步進展。

  • The 737-10 recently gained Type Inspection Authority 2 or TIA2 to expand flight testing. This final TIA opens up the majority of the certification flight testing which is focused on validating the airplane's avionics, propulsion, auto flight capabilities and other airplane function. In addition, as we previously shared, we have a final set of design changes to permanently address the engine anti-ice issues on the 737-7 and -10. We're following the lead of the FAA as we work to certify the suite of design changes. We still anticipate certification for both the 737-7 and -10 in 2026.

    737-10 最近獲得了型號檢驗授權 2 或 TIA2,以擴大飛行測試範圍。最後一次TIA開啟了大部分認證飛行測試,重點是驗證飛機的航空電子設備、推進系統、自動飛行能力和其他飛機功能。此外,正如我們之前分享的那樣,我們還有一套最終的設計變更方案,可以永久解決 737-7 和 -10 的引擎防冰問題。我們正在遵循美國聯邦航空管理局的指導,努力對這一系列設計變更進行認證。我們仍然預計 737-7 和 -10 將於 2026 年獲得認證。

  • On 777-9 in the quarter, we received approval for TIA3 and continue to perform certification flight test. TIA3 is a major phase of testing focused on avionics, environmental control systems and the auxiliary power unit. And as I've said before, overall, the aircraft and engine continued to perform well.

    本季度,我們獲得了 777-9 的 TIA3 批准,並繼續進行認證飛行測試。TIA3 是一個主要測試階段,專注於測試航空電子設備、環境控制系統和輔助動力裝置。正如我之前所說,總體而言,飛機和發動機的性能仍然良好。

  • We have identified a potential durability issue during a recent inspection on the 777X engine, and we're working with GE to better understand that issue and finalize root cause and corrective action. Importantly, as we work through this issue, we continue our certification flight testing, and we don't expect this to impact our delivery in 2027. Demand for the airplane remains strong, and we remain confident that the 777X will be the next flagship airplane for our global customers.

    我們在最近對 777X 引擎的檢查中發現了一個潛在的耐久性問題,我們正在與通用電氣合作,以更好地了解該問題,並最終確定根本原因和糾正措施。重要的是,在我們解決這個問題的同時,我們將繼續進行認證飛行測試,我們預計這不會影響我們在 2027 年的交付。市場對這款飛機的需求依然強勁,我們仍然相信 777X 將成為我們全球客戶的下一款旗艦飛機。

  • Moving now to KC-46 Tanker. As we came through our quarterly process, we revised cost estimates for elements, including the production support and supply chain, which Jay will cover in more detail. While it's disappointing to recognize another impact on this program, we are seeing encouraging operational performance trends, which, if sustained, should enable us to meet our customer delivery commitments and set us up well for the next tanker order beyond the current program of record.

    接下來是KC-46加油機。在完成季度流程的過程中,我們修改了部分成本估算,包括生產支援和供應鏈,Jay 將會更詳細地介紹這些內容。儘管承認該項目再次受到影響令人失望,但我們看到了令人鼓舞的營運績效趨勢,如果這種趨勢能夠持續下去,應該能夠使我們能夠履行對客戶的交付承諾,並為當前記錄項目之外的下一個油輪訂單做好充分準備。

  • You've heard me say you're never done until you're done on any of the development programs, but across defense and commercial, we are making progress, clear-eyed on the work remaining and committed to delivering better performance in the year ahead.

    你們都聽我說過,在任何一個研發項目完成之前,你永遠不會真正完成它。但在國防和商業領域,我們都在取得進展,我們清醒地認識到還有哪些工作要做,並致力於在未來一年取得更好的成績。

  • As I finish my prepared remarks this morning, I want to thank all of our employees, including our newest teammates from the former Spirit AeroSystems. From our frontline mechanics to our engineers and our management team we're all committed to continuous improvement guided by our culture with a sharp focus on safety, quality and performance to deliver for our customers and other stakeholders. We know there's more work ahead in 2026, but the strong foundation we're building by stabilizing the business, executing these development programs, building our future and changing our culture will position us to put our recovery behind us and restore Boeing to the company we all know it can be.

    今天上午,在我結束準備好的演講稿之際,我想感謝我們所有的員工,包括來自前 Spirit AeroSystems 的新同事們。從第一線機械師到工程師和管理團隊,我們都致力於在我們的企業文化指導下不斷改進,並高度重視安全、品質和績效,以服務我們的客戶和其他利害關係人。我們知道 2026 年還有更多工作要做,但我們透過穩定業務、執行這些發展計劃、建立未來和改變文化所奠定的堅實基礎,將使我們能夠擺脫復甦的困境,使波音公司恢復到我們都知道它能夠成為的那種公司。

  • With that, I'll now turn it over to Jay to discuss the results in more detail.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給傑伊,讓他更詳細地討論結果。

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with the total company financial performance for the quarter. Revenue was $23.9 billion, the highest quarterly total reported since 2018. Revenue was up 57%, primarily driven by improved operational performance across the business, including higher commercial deliveries and defense volume. Core earnings per share of $9.92 primarily reflects the $11.83 gain associated with closing the Digital Aviation Solutions divestiture.

    謝謝凱莉,大家早安。我們先來看看公司本季的整體財務表現。營收達 239 億美元,是自 2018 年以來最高的季度營收總額。營收成長 57%,主要得益於業務營運績效的提升,包括商業交付量和國防業務量的成長。每股核心收益 9.92 美元主要反映了完成 Digital Aviation Solutions 剝離交易帶來的 11.83 美元收益。

  • Free cash flow was positive $375 million, slightly higher than the expectations I shared last month, driven by higher commercial deliveries and working capital that improved compared to both the prior year and the prior quarter.

    自由現金流為 3.75 億美元,略高於我上個月的預期,這主要得益於商業交付量的增加以及營運資本較上年同期和上一季度有所改善。

  • Turning to BCA on the next page. BCA delivered 160 airplanes in the quarter and 600 for the year, the highest annual total since 2018. Revenue of $11.4 billion and operating margin of negative 5.6% both improved materially and primarily reflect better operational performance and higher deliveries compared to last year's results that were impacted by the work stoppage. Results also include impacts associated with acquiring Spirit AeroSystems, which impacted segment margins by roughly 1.5 points in the quarter.

    下一頁將介紹BCA。BCA本季交付了160架飛機,全年交付了600架,這是自2018年以來最高的年度交付總量。營收達 114 億美元,營業利潤率為 -5.6%,兩者均有顯著改善,主要反映了與去年受停工影響的業績相比,營運績效的提高和交付量的增加。業績還包括收購 Spirit AeroSystems 的影響,該收購使本季度該部門的利潤率下降了約 1.5 個百分點。

  • BCA booked 336 net orders in the quarter, including 105, 737-10 and 5, 787-9 airplanes for Alaska Airlines and 65, 777-9 airplanes for Emirates. Importantly, BCA booked 1,173 net orders for the year and backlog ended at a record-setting $567 billion that includes over 6,100 airplanes with the 737 and 787 both sold firm into the next decade.

    BCA 本季淨訂購 336 架飛機,其中包括阿拉斯加航空公司訂購的 105 架 737-10 型飛機和 5 架 787-9 型飛機,以及阿聯酋航空公司訂購的 65 架 777-9 型飛機。值得注意的是,BCA全年淨訂購量達1,173架,積壓訂單總額達到創紀錄的5,670億美元,其中包括6,100多架飛機,其中737和787的訂單已確定到下一個十年。

  • Now let's click down to the commercial programs. Starting with the 737 program, BCA delivered 117 airplanes in the quarter and 447 for the year, in line with expectations shared last month. The factory increased the production rate to 42 per month in the quarter and the program is on course to increase production to 47 later this year. The year ended with one 737-8 built prior to 2023, down five from the prior quarter and we expect to deliver this final shadow factory airplane in the first quarter. On the -7 and -10, inventory levels were stable at approximately 35 airplanes.

    現在我們點擊進入商業節目部分。從 737 專案開始,BCA 本季交付了 117 架飛機,全年交付了 447 架,與上個月公佈的預期相符。該工廠本季將產量提高到每月 42 台,該計劃預計將在今年稍後將產量提高到每月 47 台。今年年底,在 2023 年前建造了一架 737-8,比上一季減少了五架,我們預計在第一季交付最後一架影子工廠飛機。-7 和 -10 號航空母艦的庫存水準穩定在 35 架左右。

  • As Kelly said, we received approval from the FAA in the quarter to begin the final phase of 737-10 certification flight testing and continue to partner closely on a certification path for these programs including the engine anti-ice solution set.

    正如凱利所說,我們在本季度獲得了美國聯邦航空管理局的批准,可以開始 737-10 認證飛行測試的最後階段,並將繼續密切合作,制定這些項目的認證路徑,包括發動機防冰解決方案套件。

  • On the 787, we delivered 27 airplanes in the quarter and 88% for the year. During the quarter, the program completed a successful capstone review and is continuing to make good progress, stabilizing at the new production rate of eight per month. The year ended with approximately five airplanes in inventory that were built prior to 2023, down five from last quarter. We still expect to deliver the remaining airplanes in 2026 which is aligned with our customers' fleet plans. Importantly, the 787 recorded 395 net orders in 2025, the program's highest annual order total which highlights the market-leading capabilities that the Dreamliner will continue to deliver to our customers for decades to come.

    本季我們交付了 27 架 787 飛機,全年交付量達到 88%。本季度,該專案順利完成了總結評審,並繼續取得良好進展,穩定在每月 8 個的新生產力。年底時,庫存中大約有五架飛機是在 2023 年之前製造的,比上一季減少了五架。我們仍預計將在 2026 年交付剩餘的飛機,這與我們客戶的機隊計劃相符。值得注意的是,787 在 2025 年獲得了 395 架淨訂單,這是該項目年度訂單總額的最高紀錄,這凸顯了夢幻客機在未來幾十年將繼續為我們的客戶提供市場領先的性能。

  • Finally, on the 777X, as Kelly mentioned, we continue to make progress on 777-9 certification flight testing. 777X inventory spend in 2025 finished at nearly $3.5 billion, in line with expectations. 777X booked 202 orders in 2025, the second highest annual total since the program's launch, underscoring the trust that our customers have placed in this game-changing widebody family as well as our team that's building it.

    最後,正如凱利所提到的,關於 777X,我們在 777-9 認證飛行測試方面繼續取得進展。777X 預計 2025 年的庫存支出將接近 35 億美元,與預期相符。777X 在 2025 年獲得了 202 架訂單,這是該專案啟動以來第二高的年度訂單總量,凸顯了我們的客戶對這一具有變革意義的寬體客機系列以及我們打造它的團隊的信任。

  • All right, let's shift over to BDS on the next page. BDS delivered 37 aircraft in the quarter, and revenue grew 37% to $7.4 billion on improved operational performance and higher volume. Operating margin of negative 6.8% improved significantly compared to last year and also reflects the better operating performance across the business. This improvement was tempered by $565 million loss on the KC-46A tanker, which I'll address further in a moment.

    好的,我們翻到下一頁,來看BDS。BDS本季交付了37架飛機,由於營運績效改善和銷售增加,營收成長了37%,達到74億美元。營業利益率為負 6.8%,較去年同期顯著改善,也反映了公司整體營運績效的改善。這項改善被 KC-46A 加油機 5.65 億美元的虧損所抵消,我稍後會進一步討論這個問題。

  • BDS booked $15 million in orders during the quarter, including awards for 15, KC-46A Tankers from the US Air Force and 96 Apaches from Poland both contributing to backlog that grew to a record $85 billion. Overall, we continue to make progress stabilizing our fixed price development programs, even with the cost updates on a few programs this quarter, including the tanker adjustment.

    BDS 在本季度獲得了 1500 萬美元的訂單,其中包括美國空軍的 15 架 KC-46A 加油機和波蘭的 96 架阿帕奇直升機,這兩筆訂單都使積壓訂單增長到創紀錄的 850 億美元。總體而言,儘管本季度部分項目(包括油輪調整)的成本有所更新,但我們在穩定固定價格開發項目方面仍在繼續取得進展。

  • As Kelly mentioned, the tanker adjustment was driven by higher BCA production support and other allocated costs in the Everett facility as well as higher estimated supply chain costs, including Spirit. The added production support costs include keeping higher levels of quality and engineering support in the factory, which are a key part of driving improvement. For example, as compared to the first half of the year, we saw average factory rework levels decrease by 20% in the fourth quarter. So while these investments are starting to evidence progress, we need to sustain them for longer than previously planned to promote stability.

    正如凱利所提到的,油輪調整是由於埃弗雷特工廠的 BCA 生產支援和其他分配成本增加,以及包括 Spirit 在內的供應鏈成本估計增加所致。新增的生產支援成本包括維持工廠內更高的品質和工程支援水平,這是推動改善的關鍵部分。例如,與上半年相比,第四季工廠平均返工率下降了 20%。因此,雖然這些投資開始顯現成效,但為了促進穩定,我們需要比原計劃更長時間地維持這些投資。

  • Across these fixed-price development programs, we continue to see benefits from our active management approach in retiring risk and developing win-win opportunities with our customers. We remain focused on delivering these important capabilities and achieved several important milestones in the quarter.

    在這些固定價格開發專案中,我們持續看到積極的管理方式帶來的好處,包括消除風險和與客戶創造雙贏機會。我們繼續專注於提供這些重要功能,並在本季度實現了幾個重要的里程碑。

  • In addition to the highlights Kelly referenced on T-7A and MQ-25, we also partnered with NASA to modify the commercial crew contract to better align our long-term objectives. The remainder of the portfolio continues to benefit from increased demand supported by the global threat environment.

    除了凱利提到的 T-7A 和 MQ-25 的亮點之外,我們還與 NASA 合作修改了商業載人合同,以更好地與我們的長期目標保持一致。其餘投資組合則持續受益於全球威脅環境所帶來的不斷增長的需求。

  • Performance on these programs continue to reflect the operational improvement that began earlier this year. For example, on the PAC-3 seeker program, over the course of 2025, the team was able to increase output by 33%, enabled by prior investments in capacity and a focus on lean to drive more efficient production. Overall, the defense portfolio is well positioned for the future, as evidenced by our record backlog, and we still expect the business to return to historical performance levels as we continue to drive execution and transition to new contracts with tighter underwriting standards.

    這些項目的執行情況繼續反映出今年年初開始的營運改善勢頭。例如,在 PAC-3 導引頭計畫中,到 2025 年,該團隊透過先前對產能的投資和專注於精實生產以提高生產效率,實現了產量 33% 的成長。總體而言,國防業務組合已為未來做好了充分準備,我們創紀錄的積壓訂單證明了這一點。我們仍然預計,隨著我們繼續推進執行並過渡到承保標準更嚴格的新合同,該業務將恢復到歷史業績水平。

  • Moving to Global Services on the next page. BGS continued to perform well, again delivering strong financial results in the quarter. Revenue was up 2% to $5.2 billion, primarily reflecting improved government volume. Operating margin was abnormally high due to the Digital Aviation Solutions gain. Adjusting the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2024, for Digital Aviation Solutions, BGS adjusted revenue of $5.1 billion grew 6% and adjusted operating margin was 18.6%. On the same basis, both our commercial and government businesses again delivered double-digit margins in the quarter.

    下一頁將跳轉至全球服務。BGS 繼續保持良好表現,本季再次取得了強勁的財務業績。營收成長 2% 至 52 億美元,主要反映出政府業務量的增加。由於數位航空解決方案業務的成長,營業利潤率異常高。經調整 2025 年及 2024 年第四季的數據,數位航空解決方案業務的 BGS 調整後營收為 51 億美元,成長 6%,調整後營業利潤率為 18.6%。基於同樣的原則,我們的商業業務和政府業務在本季再次實現了兩位數的利潤率。

  • BGS is driving a keen focus on continuous improvement. For example, on the C-17 Sustainment Program, the team achieved an 18% flow reduction over the course of 2025 as a result of nearly 200 discrete projects generated by the team, a key enabler of improved customer satisfaction. BGS also received $10 billion of orders in the quarter, and an annual high of $28 billion in 2025, and the business ended the year with a record backlog of $30 billion.

    BGS 非常重視持續改善。例如,在 C-17 保障計畫中,該團隊透過開展近 200 個獨立項目,在 2025 年實現了 18% 的流程簡化,這是提高客戶滿意度的關鍵因素。BGS 在本季也獲得了 100 億美元的訂單,預計 2025 年將達到 280 億美元的年度最高訂單額,該公司年底的積壓訂單額創下 300 億美元的紀錄。

  • Shifting over to cash and debt. Cash and marketable securities grew to $29.4 billion, primarily due to $10.6 billion in proceeds associated with closing the Digital Aviation Solutions transaction, partially offset by debt repayment of $3 billion associated with the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems. The debt balance ended at $54.1 billion, slightly up from last quarter, primarily reflecting the retained Spirit debt. The company also maintains access to $10 billion of revolving credit facilities, all of which remain undrawn. And we remain committed to strengthening the balance sheet and supporting our investment-grade rating.

    轉向現金和債務融資。現金及有價證券增至 294 億美元,主要得益於完成 Digital Aviation Solutions 交易所得的 106 億美元收益,部分被收購 Spirit AeroSystems 所償還的 30 億美元債務所抵消。債務餘額最終為 541 億美元,比上一季略有上升,主要反映了 Spirit 的留存債務。該公司還擁有 100 億美元的循環信貸額度,目前尚未動用。我們將繼續致力於加強資產負債表,並維持我們的投資等級評級。

  • Okay. Let's shift to full year performance on the next page. Full year revenue was up 34% to $89.5 billion, primarily reflecting the improved operational performance across the business. Core earnings per share of $1.19 was up significantly primarily driven by the $12.47 gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions sale and improved performance. Excluding the impact of the gain, EPS was up $9.10 year-over-year.

    好的。下一頁我們將來看全年業績。全年營收成長 34% 至 895 億美元,主要反映了公司整體營運績效的改善。核心每股收益為 1.19 美元,大幅成長,主要得益於出售 Digital Aviation Solutions 獲得的 12.47 美元收益和業績改善。剔除收益的影響,每股收益年增 9.10 美元。

  • Free cash flow was $1.9 billion usage for the year. This was slightly better than expectations shared last month and improved significantly year-on-year, primarily driven by higher commercial deliveries and improved working capital. Our improving cash flow performance in 2025 provides a solid setup to deliver positive free cash flow for the full year in 2026.

    本年度自由現金流為19億美元。這比上個月公佈的預期略好,並且與去年同期相比有了顯著改善,主要得益於更高的商業交付量和更好的營運資金。2025 年現金流表現的改善為 2026 年全年實現正自由現金流奠定了堅實的基礎。

  • Let me provide some additional context on our free cash flow outlook. As we continue turning the corner in 2026, we expect positive free cash flow of $1 billion to $3 billion, aligned with the expectations I shared last month.

    讓我再補充一些關於我們自由現金流前景的背景資訊。隨著我們繼續在 2026 年迎來轉機,我們預計自由現金流將為 10 億至 30 億美元,這與我上個月分享的預期一致。

  • For clarity, this outlook contemplates an unfavorable impact of roughly $1 billion in 2026 associated with incorporating Spirit. Consistent with the profile we have discussed previously, cash flow is expected to grow year-over-year primarily on higher commercial deliveries, better performance at BDS as that business continues to stabilize and continued steady growth at BGS. This outlook continues to assume significant capital expenditures for future products and growth, particularly in St. Louis and Charleston.

    為明確起見,此展望考慮了與 Spirit 合併相關的 2026 年約 10 億美元的不利影響。與我們先前討論的情況一致,預計現金流將逐年成長,主要得益於更高的商業交付量、BDS業務持續穩定帶來的更好業績以及BGS業務的持續穩定成長。這項展望仍然假設未來產品和成長需要大量的資本支出,尤其是在聖路易斯和查爾斯頓。

  • CapEx ramped up over the second half as we expected with nearly $3 billion invested in the business in 2025. These higher investment levels will continue into 2026, and we expect to spend closer to $4 billion this year, including the incorporation of Spirit.

    正如我們預期的那樣,下半年資本支出大幅增加,到 2025 年,該業務將投資近 30 億美元。這些較高的投資水準將持續到 2026 年,我們預計今年將支出接近 40 億美元,其中包括將 Spirit 納入公司。

  • Within 2026, we expect first quarter free cash flow will be a usage similar to first quarter of 2025, driven by normal seasonality. We expect the first half of 2026 to be a use of cash with the second half turning positive and accelerating sequentially. As we have discussed, there are a number of impacts to 2026 free cash flow that we expect to be temporary in nature and improve over time.

    預計到 2026 年,第一季的自由現金流將與 2025 年第一季的自由現金流使用情況類似,主要由正常季節性因素驅動。我們預計 2026 年上半年將出現現金流出,下半年將轉為正成長,並逐年加速成長。正如我們所討論的,2026 年自由現金流會受到一些影響,我們預期這些影響是暫時的,並且會隨著時間的推移而改善。

  • Let me add a bit of color on each category and highlight the actions required to work through them. As I just covered, we expect 2026 free cash flow to be between $1 billion and $3 billion. Part of where we end up in that range may be influenced by the realized impact of these issues. The most significant impacts are related to the delayed certification and first delivery on the 777X program, as well as the prior delivery delays on the 737 and 787 programs.

    讓我為每個類別添加一些細節,並重點介紹完成這些類別所需的操作。正如我剛才提到的,我們預計 2026 年的自由現金流將在 10 億至 30 億美元之間。我們最終會處於這個範圍內的哪個位置,部分原因可能在於這些問題的實際影響。最顯著的影響與 777X 專案的認證和首次交付延遲有關,以及先前 737 和 787 專案的交付延遲。

  • On 777X, regarding net cash burn. With first delivery planned for 2027, our production system expenditures will be much higher than the predelivery payments we expect. PDPs for 777X are lower than they otherwise would be, given customers have been paying into a schedule that previously assumed first delivery in 2026. 2026 is planned to be a higher use than 2025 but we expect the net cash use to improve over the next few years before turning positive in 2029. Our focus here remains on progressing through flight testing with the FAA.

    關於 777X 的淨現金消耗量。由於首批產品計劃於 2027 年交付,我們的生產系統支出將遠高於我們預期的交付前付款。鑑於客戶先前一直按照原計劃於 2026 年首次交付的計劃付款,777X 的 PDP 低於預期。 2026 年的預計使用量將高於 2025 年,但我們預計未來幾年淨現金使用量將有所改善,並在 2029 年轉正。我們目前的重點仍然是推進與美國聯邦航空管理局的飛行測試。

  • Additionally, and just as importantly, we are making sure the production and delivery system is ready to ramp up to include working through built airplanes that will undergo a systematic change in corporation program.

    此外,同樣重要的是,我們正在確保生產和交付系統做好準備,以擴大規模,包括處理已建成的飛機,這些飛機將在公司計劃中進行系統性變更。

  • Regarding the 737 and 787, there are two issues both driven by previous delivery delays. The first is customer considerations and the second is excess advances. To be clear, customer considerations for prior delays are not diminishing the pricing levels we are applying to new business. Indeed, we are seeking to better manage delay exposure in new contracts with tighter underwriting standards. We expect the impact of these items to improve over the next few years and our path to resolve the impacts of both customer considerations and excess advances is all about production stability and continuous improvement in on-time delivery for our BCA customers.

    關於 737 和 787,有兩個問題,這兩個問題都是由先前的交付延誤造成的。第一點是客戶考慮因素,第二點是超額預付款。需要明確的是,客戶對先前延誤的補償並不會降低我們對新業務的定價水準。事實上,我們正​​在尋求透過更嚴格的承保標準,更好地管理新合約中的延誤風險。我們預計這些因素的影響將在未來幾年內得到改善,而我們解決客戶考慮因素和超額預付款影響的途徑,就是確保生產穩定,並不斷改進,以確保為 BCA 客戶按時交付。

  • Partially offsetting these negative impacts on 737 and 787 is the plan to methodically work down selected excess part inventory and complete the final deliveries of previously built 737s and 787s. As we have said, with 737 moving to higher rates, we will address excess inventory on a commodity-by-commodity basis, in order to preserve stability across the supply chain and production system.

    為了部分抵消這些對 737 和 787 的負面影響,計劃有條不紊地減少選定的過剩零件庫存,並完成先前製造的 737 和 787 的最終交付。正如我們所說,隨著 737 機型運力提升,我們將逐一解決庫存過剩問題,以維持整個供應鏈和生產系統的穩定性。

  • The next category of legacy issues we have discussed is the cash impact of running off prior BDS charges. Since 2022, there have been significant charges across the five fixed price development programs. We expect sequential improvement from 2025 to 2026 and gradual improvements thereafter. Obviously, this is predicated on successfully completing these programs without taking additional charges and leveraging the active management playbook to continue to derisk these programs. As a tanker charge this quarter highlights, there remains risk on these programs even if the envelope of risk has been significantly reduced over the last year.

    我們討論的下一類遺留問題是償還先前 BDS 費用的現金影響。自 2022 年以來,五個固定價格開發項目都出現了重大收費。我們預計從 2025 年到 2026 年將逐步改善,此後將持續改善。顯然,這以成功完成這些專案且不產生額外費用為前提,並利用積極的管理策略繼續降低這些專案的風險。正如本季度的油輪費用所凸顯的那樣,即使過去一年風險範圍已大幅降低,這些項目仍然存在風險。

  • Rounding it out, we have the in-year impact of the expected DOJ payment sliding from 2025 to 2026. In addition, to the two-year spike in CapEx in 2026 and 2027, supporting growth in a stable production system, our focus as a leadership team will be on closely managing these investments to drive budget and schedule performance.

    最後,我們也要考慮司法部預期付款從 2025 年延後到 2026 年所帶來的年度影響。此外,為了支持在穩定的生產系統中實現成長,2026 年和 2027 年資本支出將出現兩年的激增,作為領導團隊,我們的重點將是密切管理這些投資,以推動預算和進度績效。

  • Adjusting for these impacts would result in high single-digits 2026 free cash flow and highlights the strong underlying cash generation potential of our business. Accordingly, we continue to believe the $10 billion free cash flow mark is very attainable, including impacts of the Spirit acquisition, which aligns with my remarks last month.

    調整這些影響後,2026 年自由現金流將達到個位數高位,凸顯了我們業務強大的潛在現金流產生能力。因此,我們仍然認為 100 億美元的自由現金流目標完全可以實現,包括收購 Spirit 的影響,這與我上個月的表態一致。

  • Okay, summing it all up. A strong foundation was set in 2025, and we're focused on elevating our performance in 2026 and delivering on the long-term potential of this business.

    好的,總結一下。2025 年我們奠定了堅實的基礎,我們將專注於在 2026 年提升業績,並實現這項業務的長期潛力。

  • With that, let's open up the call for questions.

    接下來,我們開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

    (操作說明)邁爾斯·沃爾頓,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • A lot of detail there, Jay, within the context of the cash flow. So maybe I'll start there.

    傑伊,這裡面有很多細節,尤其是在現金流方面。所以也許我會從那裡開始。

  • Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Myles, I'm afraid we've lost you.

    麥爾斯,恐怕我們失去你了。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Can you hear me now?

    現在能聽到我說話嗎?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, I can hear you now.

    是的,我現在可以聽到你說話了。

  • Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Please start over the question.

    請重新提問。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Yes. Apologies. So Jay, a lot of color on the cash flow building blocks to get to that high single-digit [ex] that guy. Could you just clarify the excess advances in customer considerations, the quantum of those and then the duration by which they normalize? Is that '27, '28 or further out?

    是的。抱歉。所以 Jay,關於現金流建構模組有很多細節,可以達到那個高個位數的[ex]。能否詳細說明客戶考慮因素方面的超額預付款具體是多少,金額是多少,以及需要多長時間才能恢復正常?是 27 年、28 年還是更早?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. As I mentioned, Myles, again, the total overall quantum goes from low single digit to high single digits. So we know that in the total. I'm not going to give individual breakout on each specific impact, but I'll give you a little bit more of a directional color.

    好的。正如我之前提到的,邁爾斯,總量子數從個位數低到個位數高。所以我們知道,總的來說。我不會逐一分析每項具體影響,但我會給你一些方向性的建議。

  • What I can tell you is the excess advances coming in from '25 to '26 as well as the considerations at least in 2026, they're generally close to each other, so almost the same impacts. The excess advances over time actually will burn down quicker than what we expect on the consideration. So that will take a little bit longer to burn down on the 737 and 787 considerations. Again, when you think about this and take a step back, it's pretty much what I said on the prepared remarks, burning this down all is about the production rates and getting us to the higher production rates over time.

    我可以告訴你的是,從 2025 年到 2026 年的超額預付款以及至少在 2026 年需要考慮的因素,它們總體上是相近的,因此影響幾乎相同。隨著時間的推移,超額貸款實際上會比我們根據預期更快地消耗殆盡。因此,還需要一些時間才能徹底解決 737 和 787 的相關問題。再說一遍,當你仔細想想,退一步思考,這和我準備好的發言稿裡說的差不多,燒毀這一切都是為了提高生產力,讓我們隨著時間的推移達到更高的生產力。

  • One other thing on 777X, even though you didn't ask me, I colored that as well. And again, that will take us a few years. Key thing there is, while it is a higher cash burn this year, it will improve over time with it turning positive in 2029.

    關於 777X 還有一件事,雖然你沒問我,但我還是把它也塗上了顏色。而且,這還需要幾年時間。關鍵在於,雖然今年的現金消耗量較高,但隨著時間的推移,情況會有所改善,到 2029 年將轉為正值。

  • Similarly with BDS, that -- that's actually coming down and improving from '26 over '25, and that will burn down over time as well. So again, it's all predicated -- our improvement plans is predicated upon our delivery plans. We've got a very good line of sight, which is why I walked you through this detail. But as things potentially change, these could change as well. And so we'll give you more color. 2026 is a big, big year for us.

    同樣,BDS 的情況也類似,它實際上正在從 2025 年的 2026 年下降並有所改善,而且隨著時間的推移,它也會逐漸消失。所以,一切都是有前提的──我們的改進計畫是有前提的──我們的改進計畫是有前提的。我們現在的視野非常好,所以我帶你仔細查看了這個細節。但隨著情況的變化,這些也可能會隨之改變。所以,我們將為您帶來更多色彩。 2026年對我們來說是意義非凡的一年。

  • As Kelly mentioned, we had to get through our certification programs. We also have rate ramp increases as well. As we get the learnings and get informed by those events, that will give us a little bit more ability to really zone in a specific quantification as well as the timing of these. But hopefully, this works for you for now, and then we'll give you more color in the future.

    正如凱莉所提到的,我們必須通過認證課程。我們也有逐步提高費率的機制。隨著我們從這些事件中吸收經驗並了解情況,這將使我們更有能力真正專注於具體的量化指標以及這些事件發生的時間。但願這目前對您有用,以後我們將為您帶來更多色彩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citi.

    約翰‧戈丁,花旗集團。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • I also wanted to follow up on free cash flow. The conversation, I think, is really focused on normalized free cash flow a few years out. The $10 billion number, Jay, that's not one that you created. And I just wanted to -- as you spend more and more time thinking about this, I wanted to just give you a chance to kind of revisit that.

    我還想了解一下自由現金流的情況。我認為,目前的討論主要集中在幾年後的正常自由現金流。傑伊,100億美元的這個數字可不是你創造的。我只是想——隨著你花越來越多的時間思考這個問題,我想給你一個機會重新審視這個問題。

  • You mentioned a lot of moving parts at the end of the prepared remarks. But needless to say, if high single digit is like an adjusted starting point at the end '26 with the benefit of substantially higher production rates that the FAA allows, it stands to reason that the normalized free cash flow a few years out could be much higher, many billions higher than $10 billion. I know there's a lot there, but I'd love your take.

    你在準備好的發言稿結尾提到了很多變數。但毋庸置疑,如果個位數高位就像是 2026 年底的調整起點,並且受益於美國聯邦航空管理局允許的大幅提高的生產率,那麼幾年後的正常自由現金流理應會高得多,比 100 億美元高出數十億美元。我知道這裡面有很多內容,但我很想聽聽你的看法。

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, John. Well, let me just start, say first things first. And the first order of business is getting ourselves to this $10 billion, which I believe we are absolutely on the right track.

    謝謝你,約翰。好吧,我就先從頭說起。而首要任務是實現100億美元的目標,我相信我們絕對走在正確的道路上。

  • You're right, John. I mentioned -- I think the term I actually used was very attainable in December, and I'm repeating that again today. I went through this in the fourth quarter. I'm very comfortable with our ability to achieve $10 billion. Again, it's a little bit of a repeatable sequence of events, but we have to get through the certification programs, we have to ramp up on our BCA production rates, we need to see the improving performance at BDS related to our margin profile as well as burning off the prior charges and then continued performance at BGS.

    你說得對,約翰。我之前提到過——我覺得我去年 12 月用的那個詞非常容易實現,今天我再重複一次。我在第四季經歷了這件事。我對我們實現100億美元的目標非常有信心。這又是一系列可以重複發生的事件,但我們必須完成認證計劃,我們必須提高 BCA 的生產率,我們需要看到 BDS 的業績改善與我們的利潤率狀況相關,同時償還之前的費用,然後 BGS 的業績繼續保持良好。

  • Again, on an adjusted basis, when you look at BGS this past year, they delivered 6% organic growth as well as 18% plus margins. We expect that to continue as well and be a contributor to cash flow. So if you're asking me, can we be above 10%, I think the potential of our cash flow supports to be above 10%. But first things first, let's get to 10%, and we'll talk about how we go from there.

    再調整後,回顧 BGS 過去一年的表現,他們實現了 6% 的有機成長以及 18% 以上的利潤率。我們預計這種情況會持續下去,並為現金流做出貢獻。所以如果你問我,我們能否超過 10%,我認為我們的現金流潛力足以支撐超過 10%。但首先,我們先達到 10%,然後再討論如何繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Harned, Bernstein.

    道格·哈內德,伯恩斯坦。

  • Douglas Harned - Analyst

    Douglas Harned - Analyst

  • When you look at the production ramps that you're focused on, I'd like to understand a little bit more about where you see the bottlenecks when you're going to 47 to 52 on 737, when you're getting to 10 and then ultimately to 12 and 14, I mean what are the hardest breaks to get to? And what are the biggest challenges?

    當您專注於生產爬坡進度時,我想進一步了解一下,當您將 737 的產量從 47 架增加到 52 架,以及當您達到 10 架,最終達到 12 架和 14 架時,您認為瓶頸在哪裡?我的意思是,最難突破的是什麼?最大的挑戰是什麼?

  • And I wanted to highlight one because if I look at back in 2018, when the rate increase was going to 52, Spirit had some very significant issues getting there. And so perhaps you could also address what you may be doing to ensure you don't have those kinds of issues again with Spirit?

    我想重點提一下其中一點,因為回顧 2018 年,當時費率上漲到 52,Spirit 航空公司在實現這一目標的過程中遇到了一些非常嚴重的問題。那麼,或許您也可以談談您正在採取哪些措施來確保您不會再遇到與Spirit相關的這類問題?

  • Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Doug, let me start and break that down. Let's start with the 737 MAX program. As you know, we've gone from rate 38 to 42 as we said. Just to give you a little bit of color, that's actually gone really well. The KPIs look really good. We achieved that effective rate in November and December on the 737 line.

    好的,道格,讓我來詳細解釋一下。我們先從737 MAX專案開始。如你所知,我們的利率已經從 38 升至 42。簡單來說,這件事進展得非常順利。關鍵績效指標看起來非常好。我們在 737 系列飛機上實現了 11 月和 12 月的有效率。

  • Now recognize that November and December heavy holiday months. So now we'll be coming into a more wholesome full months and we need to continue to see stability. But so far, so good. And as I said, the good news is the KPI still look good. So no deterioration there. Supply chain on that ramp, not a big issue for us right now. And we projected that.

    要知道,11月和12月是假日高峰期。所以接下來我們將迎來一個更完整的月份,我們需要繼續保持穩定。但目前為止,一切順利。正如我所說,好消息是關鍵績效指標仍然很好。所以這方面沒有惡化。目前,該坡道的供應鏈對我們來說不是什麼大問題。我們預測了這一點。

  • As you know, we've got a lot of inventory there. And I actually don't think supply chain is going to be a big challenge for us in the next rate ramp from 42 to 47. But that's where we start to normalize with the supply base in terms of burning off the excess inventory.

    如您所知,我們那裡有很多庫存。實際上,我認為在利率從 42 升至 47 的過程中,供應鏈不會給我們帶來太大的挑戰。但從消耗過剩庫存的角度來看,我們開始與供應基礎恢復正常。

  • And as we've said, going from 47 then to 52, that will be where we'll have to see improved performance from the supply chain. And we've got time we're working that diligently with the supply chain. Right now, nothing says we can't do that, but a lot of work yet ahead of us. And again, I think -- it will be a tougher rate ramp to go from 47 to 52 than say it was to go from 38 to 42 because of that inventory level.

    正如我們所說,從 47 家工廠增加到 52 家工廠,我們必須看到供應鏈的績效有所提升。我們有時間,我們正在與供應鏈密切合作。現在雖然沒有規定說我們不能這樣做,但我們還有很多工作要做。而且我認為,由於庫存水準的原因,從 47 升至 52 的利率上升會比從 38 升至 42 更困難。

  • You mentioned Spirit, so I'll address that right now. You're right. In that Spirit, we're going to need to continue to invest in the capacity growth from Spirit. I think this is one of the big thesis and underwrites why we made the acquisition so that we can guide that ramp and help them move forward. I think if they had continued in a distressed environment, I think that risk would have been significantly higher than our ability to go manage that. But that, like the rest of the supply chain moving to that rate, Spirit has some work to do, and we've got a plan to go accomplish that.

    你提到了精神層面,那我現在就來談談這個問題。你說得對。本著這種精神,我們需要持續投資於Spirit的產能成長。我認為這是我們進行收購的一個重要論點,也是我們做出這項收購決定的原因,這樣我們就可以引導他們的發展,幫助他們向前邁進。我認為,如果他們繼續在困境中經營,那麼風險將遠高於我們應對的能力。但是,就像供應鏈的其他部分要達到相同的速度一樣,Spirit 還有一些工作要做,我們已經制定了計劃來實現這一目標。

  • If I switch to 787, as you know, we don't have the large inventory levels there on 87. That is more normalized with the supply chain. And we're working to stabilize at this rate 8 now. And our plan, as we said, is to go to rate 10 here in the next year. There's no particular supply chain constraint that I see there.

    如果我改飛 787,如你所知,我們在 87 上沒有那麼多的庫存。這在供應鏈中已經變得更加普遍。我們正在努力將成長穩定在目前的8。正如我們所說,我們的計劃是明年達到這裡的10級。我沒看到有什麼特別的供應鏈瓶頸。

  • We still are dealing with seat issues, that's less of a constraint to our production output, but more of an issue with deliveries. And so particularly, for airlines that are taking a new seat configuration that requires a new certification baseline. Those have typically been tough to get through the cert programs, both with EASA and the FAA. And so we're still working through that, but that's no change from what we said before. I think that's going to be with us for a little while going forward.

    我們仍在處理座椅問題,這對我們的生產產量影響不大,但對交付來說是個大問題。因此,對於採用新的座椅配置、需要新的認證基準的航空公司來說,尤其如此。無論是透過 EASA 還是 FAA 的認證項目,這些通常都很難獲得。所以我們還在努力解決這個問題,但這和我們之前說的並沒有什麼改變。我認為這種情況還會持續一段時間。

  • So I think the top-level story here is that we've got these rate increases in front of us, the 42 to 47 will stabilize here at 42. We'll use the same process we used to move to 42 to move to 47. We'll have a rate review with the FAA and then we'll go ahead and increase that rate. And the same is true on 87 as we go to 10.

    所以我認為最關鍵的一點是,我們面前的利率上漲幅度為 42 到 47,最終會穩定在 42。我們將使用與升級到 42 相同的流程來升級到 47。我們將與美國聯邦航空管理局進行費率審查,然後我們將提高費率。同樣的道理也適用於 87 號公路,直到 10 號公路。

  • Now longer term, as you know, we've invested both in the expansion of another line on the 737 MAX up in Everett, and I commented on that in my prepared remarks. So capital is all in place. We're going through the process of training up the people and that's really important as we move past the 47 rate that we have that line up and running.

    從長遠來看,正如你們所知,我們已經投資擴建了埃弗雷特的另一條 737 MAX 生產線,我在事先準備好的演講稿中也提到了這一點。所以資金已經到位。我們正在進行人員培訓,這對於我們實現 47 倍產能並讓生產線運作至關重要。

  • And then likewise, to move past 10 a month rate on 87, we believe we need to have additional capacity in Charleston, and we've made a major capital investment and kicked that off our groundbreaking here last year. So our plan is in place. We're working it. I think in general, we're going to see supply chain harmony has to happen in that 47 to 52 rate, we'll continue to work that with the suppliers.

    同樣地,為了使 87 號公路的月租金超過 10 美元,我們認為需要在查爾斯頓增加運力,為此我們進行了重大資本投資,並於去年在這裡破土動工。我們的計劃已經制定完畢。我們正在努力。我認為總的來說,供應鏈的協調必須達到 47% 到 52% 的水平,我們將繼續與供應商合作實現這一目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    Sheila Kahyaoglu,傑富瑞集團。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Maybe if you could just talk about the momentum and momentum is very clear. How do we think about BCA margins? Jay, you mentioned Spirit is about $1 billion, and the comment about delays not affecting pricing going forward potentially as much in the $10 billion future free cash flow state. So I guess, how do we think about 37 and 87 cash margins in the near term? How much they're depressed longer term as well? And then relative to history?

    也許你可以談談勢頭,勢頭非常明顯。我們如何看待BCA利潤率?Jay,你提到 Spirit 的市值約為 10 億美元,並且評論說,延誤不會對未來的定價產生太大影響,因為其未來自由現金流可能達到 100 億美元。所以我想,我們該如何看待37和87這兩個數字在短期內的現金利潤率呢?他們的長期憂鬱程度如何?那麼,從歷史角度來看呢?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Sheila. And you're right. Right now, 737, 787 cash margins are depressed, and that's reflected in our free cash flow. We do assume and expect and given what's in the backlog that those will improve over time to support these cash flow types of numbers that we're talking about.

    謝謝你,希拉。你說得對。目前,737、787 的現金利潤率較低,這反映在我們的自由現金流中。我們假設並期望,鑑於積壓訂單的情況,隨著時間的推移,這些數字會得到改善,從而支持我們所說的這些現金流數字。

  • The Spirit impact itself, correct in terms of the cash flow impact of $1 billion negative this year. And we've looked at that and we've played out their impact and their contribution to our cash margins on 737, 787 program and forecasted that out. And we don't believe over time, that, that's going to materially impact what we believe and what we need to deliver on these types of cash flows.

    Spirit 本身的影響,就現金流影響而言,今年為負 10 億美元。我們已經研究過這個問題,也分析過它們對 737、787 項目現金利潤率的影響和貢獻,並對此進行了預測。我們認為,隨著時間的推移,這不會對我們所相信的以及我們需要實現的這類現金流產生實質的影響。

  • So over time, there Spirit's performance will get better, that will be reflecting the financials through just productivity, through synergies in higher quality and delivery performance, as Kelly mentioned. We do have what we would expect over that time period as well as a boost from pricing. And so we haven't really focused on that as much, but that will provide a boost to our margins in the out years as well. And so that is what gives us the confidence that what we've seen here at Spirit, what we're absorbing at Spirit, doesn't really alter what we're expecting in these out years.

    因此,隨著時間的推移,Spirit 的業績將會好轉,正如 Kelly 所提到的,這將透過生產力的提高、品質和交付績效的協同效應來反映在財務狀況上。我們確實獲得了預期的收益,價格上漲也帶來了提振。因此我們並沒有太多關注這一點,但這也會在未來幾年提升我們的利潤率。因此,正是這一點讓我們有信心,我們在Spirit所看到、所吸收的一切,並不會真正改變我們未來幾年的預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Arment, Baird.

    Peter Arment,Baird。

  • Peter Arment - Analyst

    Peter Arment - Analyst

  • Jay, just maybe sticking with BCA. The BCA team had a really strong delivery year in '25. I think you mentioned 447 MAXs and you had 88, 787 deliveries. And with the rate breaks that we're seeing this year, maybe you could just level set us on kind of 2026 delivery expectations for both the MAX and the 787 programs and also just maybe any cadence that we should expect first half versus second half?

    Jay,或許會繼續留在BCA。BCA團隊在2025年取得了非常出色的交付表現。我想你提到過 447 輛 MAX,並且完成了 88,787 次交付。有鑑於今年我們看到的利率優惠,或許您可以為我們設定 MAX 和 787 項目在 2026 年的交付預期,以及上半年和下半年的交付節奏?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Thanks, Peter. So let me start with the 737. Our expectation for deliveries on that program is around 500 aircraft. And if you look at it kind of if you compare this year to last year, last year in the 447 that we delivered, we delivered around 55 aircraft out of inventory. So our production rollouts are going to significantly improve.

    當然。謝謝你,彼得。那麼,就讓我先從737說起。我們預計該項目的交付量約為 500 架飛機。如果你看一下,如果你把今年和去年進行比較,去年我們交付的 447 架飛機中,大約有 55 架是從庫存中交付的。因此,我們的生產推廣速度將會顯著提升。

  • This year, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've only got one left carryover going in. So our production performance and rollouts is going to increase substantially.

    正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,今年我們只剩下一個結轉學分了。因此,我們的生產效率和產品發布量將大幅提升。

  • When you do the math, as you indicated, Peter, in terms of just taking a look at the assumption for rate breaks, you might get into around kind of, call it, 530 aircraft or so. What we're going to be doing in this production build is building around 30 aircraft on the 737-10. Those will not be delivered in 2026. They'll be delivered in 2027 upon certification. And so that would bridge between higher expectation and 500.

    正如你所說,彼得,如果你進行計算,僅從費率折扣的假設來看,你可能會得到大約 530 架飛機左右。在本次生產計畫中,我們將建造約 30 架 737-10 型飛機。這些產品不會在 2026 年交付。獲得認證後,將於 2027 年交付。這樣就能彌合更高的期望值和 500 分之間的差距。

  • As far as the 787, a little bit simpler there. We're expecting around anywhere between 90 to 100 aircraft, and that will be dependent upon really our production rollouts.

    至於787,情況就簡單一些。我們預計產量在 90 到 100 架之間,具體數量取決於我們的生產部署。

  • Again, just like 737, we had about 20 aircraft that came out of inventory that we delivered in 2026 and so the production rollout system will be the primary source of our deliveries, again here in 2026. So a very similar type of approach there.

    同樣,就像 737 一樣,我們有大約 20 架飛機從庫存中交付,這些飛機將於 2026 年交付,因此生產推廣系統將是我們 2026 年交付的主要來源。所以,那裡的做法非常相似。

  • Overall, we expect BCA delivers to be up -- deliveries to be up close to or approximately 10% all in. And so again, that will be driven, I mean, led by the 737 and 787 programs. I hope that gives you the clarity you need.

    總體而言,我們預計 BCA 的交付量將有所增加——總交付量將增加接近或約 10%。所以,這又將由737和787項目推動,我的意思是,引領。希望這能給你所需的清晰資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Seifman, J.P. Morgan.

    Seth Seifman,J.P. Morgan。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • Maybe if you could talk a little bit more about defense. We saw a charge there for the first time in 2025. But it sounds like it's something that can perhaps help in the future. Maybe you could talk a little bit about how KC-46 to the extent that you see it turning the quarter, how is it turning the corner?

    或許你可以多談談防禦方面的事情。我們看到那裡在 2025 年首次出現收費情況。但聽起來這或許會在未來有所幫助。或許您可以談談 KC-46 的情況,看看它如何度過這個階段,它是如何扭轉局面的?

  • And then moving beyond that, the state of BDS and maybe how you prepare for some of these production increases that the Defense Department is looking for? Should we think about a multiyear contract for Boeing on PAC-3 seekers? And how do we think about the investment associated with that?

    此外,BDS 的現況如何?以及您如何為國防部尋求的這些增產做好準備?我們是否應該考慮與波音公司簽訂多年期的PAC-3導引頭合約?那麼,我們該如何看待與之相關的投資呢?

  • Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Good question. So first of all, let me just say that the charge we took on the tanker in this quarter doesn't really reflect at all on any of the other BDS programs. It's a discrete charge against that particular program. And in fact, it's -- the predominance of the charge is increased cost on the actual 767 commercial airplane production as Jay outlined.

    是的。問得好。首先,我要說明的是,本季我們對油輪收取的費用實際上並沒有對任何其他 BDS 項目產生任何影響。這是針對該特定項目的單獨指控。事實上,正如傑伊所概述的那樣,這項費用的主要部分是增加了 767 商用飛機的實際生產成本。

  • And look, we took a look at the program. It is taking us more resources to make the deliveries. We delivered 14 tankers in 2025, and we are planning to deliver 19 in 2026. And we made the conscious decision that we needed to keep resources at a higher level to assure that we make those deliveries on time.

    你看,我們仔細研究了一下這個程序。我們需要投入更多資源來進行配送。我們在 2025 年交付了 14 輛油輪,並計劃在 2026 年交付 19 輛。我們經過慎重考慮,決定將資源投入維持在較高水平,以確保按時交付貨物。

  • As you know, the Department of War is super focused on us, first of all, making investments to support growth and also ensuring that we're delivering on time. And so we took that decision, albeit a big gulp to have to take a charge here on the tanker program. I think it will pay off in dividends with us in terms of allowing us to make sure we meet deliveries -- the 19 deliveries next year.

    如您所知,戰爭部非常重視我們,首先是進行投資以支持成長,其次是確保我們按時交付。因此,我們做出了這個決定,儘管要承擔起油輪專案的責任對我們來說是一個很大的挑戰。我認為這將為我們帶來豐厚的回報,使我們能夠確保按時交付——明年交付 19 件。

  • The other thing I'll just lay out is, as you know, the Air Force has made a decision to go sole source for the follow-on tanker contracts. We will be pricing that in the fall time frame according to the current schedule. So we are laser-focused on making sure we understand the cost base of that airplane. Obviously, this has been a bad contract for the last decade, this existing contract. And as we enter into a new opportunity where we get to reprice, we want to make sure that we, as Jay has said, underwrite that contract to ensure it's a fair contract and we can make money on that.

    我還要說明一點,正如你們所知,空軍已經決定後續加油機合約將採用單一來源採購模式。我們將根據目前的計劃,在秋季進行定價。因此,我們正全力以赴地確保我們了解該飛機的成本基礎。顯然,這份現有合約在過去十年裡一直是一份糟糕的合約。而當我們迎來重新定價的新機會時,我們希望確保,正如傑伊所說,我們為該合同提供擔保,以確保它是一份公平的合同,並且我們能夠從中獲利。

  • As I look at the broader question about increasing in rate or increasing an investment from the executive order and the Department of War, look, we've invested ahead of contract on F-47. I think it was a key part of our win strategy, and I think the department clearly recognizes that we went out at risk and made significant investments.

    當我審視關於提高採購速度或增加行政命令和戰爭部投資的更廣泛的問題時,你看,我們已經在簽訂合約之前對 F-47 進行了投資。我認為這是我們制勝策略的關鍵部分,我認為該部門也清楚地認識到,我們冒著風險進行了重大投資。

  • We have also invested in the PAC-3 capital to increase the PAC-3 production line. I suspect we will get to a multiyear similar to what you've seen elsewhere with the government on the PAC-3 contracts. So we're in discussions now with the Air Force on that. So I don't see a big step-up in CapEx relative to that multiyear PAC-3 because, for the most part, we've made the major investments already going forward in terms of CapEx. The rest, finishing the F-4 7, investment is probably our major capital investment here going forward in our defense portfolio.

    我們也投資了 PAC-3 資本,以擴大 PAC-3 生產線。我懷疑我們會達成類似於你在其他地方看到的政府 PAC-3 合約那樣的多年期協議。所以我們現在正在和空軍就此事進行討論。因此,我認為相對於多年期 PAC-3 計劃,資本支出不會有太大增長,因為就資本支出而言,我們已經進行了大部分未來的主要投資。其餘部分,即完成 F-4 7 的建設,可能是我們未來在國防領域的主要資本投資。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

    羅恩愛潑斯坦,美國銀行。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • A broader, bigger picture question for you. We can just nail that on some of the financial details with Eric after the call. But -- so you've been at the company now for well over a year doing God's Work, running around, fixing things.

    這是一個更宏觀、更宏觀的問題。通話結束後,我們可以和艾瑞克敲定一些財務細節。但是——所以你已經在公司工作一年多了,一直在做上帝的工作,到處奔波,解決問題。

  • But here's the question. It's an effective duopoly with you guys and Airbus. I mean there's some folks on the fringe, but it's really the two of you guys. And it seems like on a very fundamental level that -- it's just not a very profitable industry. It seems like everybody else is making money on planes from the guys doing seats, faucets, engines, aftermarket parts, even nowadays, even airlines. But it just seems like building airplanes isn't that profitable.

    但問題是這樣的。你們和空中巴士形成了有效的雙寡占格局。我的意思是,邊緣群體裡有些人,但真正算是你們兩個的。從根本上來說,這似乎是一個非常不賺錢的行業。似乎除了飛機上的座椅、水龍頭、引擎、售後零件供應商之外,所有人都在賺錢,甚至現在連航空公司也在賺錢。但看起來製造飛機似乎不太賺錢。

  • And you've been on both sides of this, right? So you're at an OE now and you were on the supply side. Can that change and like on a future airplane, can that change? Like what has to change to like really make this industry shine?

    你對雙方都經歷過,對吧?所以你現在在一家原始設備製造商 (OE) 工作,而你之前是在供應方。這種情況會改變嗎?就像未來的飛機一樣,這種情況會改變嗎?要讓這個產業真正綻放光彩,需要做出哪些改變?

  • Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, look, I think as you point out, I have been on both sides of this. So I know how you can make really good margin in this aerospace market. And I see how you cannot make a very good margin in the aerospace market. And I think the fundamental is we have to get a handle on what risks we're taking and understand the risks. And I think building an airplane is not an easy task. There's significant risk. And we'll continue to take the risk.

    嗯,你看,我想正如你所指出的,我在這件事上既站在了立場上,也站在了立場上。所以我知道如何在航空航太市場獲得非常高的利潤。我明白為什麼在航空航太市場無法獲得很高的利潤。我認為最根本的是,我們必須掌握我們正在承擔的風險,並了解這些風險。我認為製造飛機不是一件容易的事。風險很大。我們將繼續承擔這種風險。

  • The issue that I think we've got to improve upon is how we manage ourselves through those risks and how we enter into contracts associated with knowing that we've got these risks out there. So concurrency, how we price things, what damages we accept, how we do that, I think, are all opportunities for us to improve. And I think a new airplane program gives us that opportunity. For the most part, there's not much we can do about what we've got at hand other than fix our performance, and that's what we're doing day in, day out. I really can't change the structure of the aftermarket and OE construct. It kind of is what it is.

    我認為我們需要改進的問題是,我們如何管理自己以應對這些風險,以及我們如何簽訂與這些風險相關的合約。所以,我認為,並發性、我們如何定價、我們接受的損失、我們如何做到這一點,都是我們可以改進的機會。我認為新的飛機計畫能為我們帶來這樣的機會。對於我們目前面臨的情況,除了改善我們的表現之外,我們能做的並不多,而這正是我們日復一日正在做的事情。我真的無法改變售後市場和原廠配套的結構。事情就是這樣。

  • I think this is a big part of the discussion and our strategy going forward for next airplane is where is the value? Where is the value chain? What do we do? What do we partner to do? And how do we assure that we're participating?

    我認為這是討論的重要組成部分,也是我們未來研發下一代飛機的戰略重點,那就是價值在哪裡?價值鏈在哪裡?我們該怎麼辦?我們合作做什麼?我們如何確保自己參與其中?

  • There's a lot of value in this commercial aerospace market. You're right, we should participate in that -- in the value. So that's a lot of work for us to do strategically. I don't see any impediment to do it, but we've got to understand the risk we're taking when we take them and make sure we've got plans to manage those risks. And if they go unmitigated, then you end up with situations like we're in, where we don't -- we're not sharing in the profitability of the overall market. That would be my take.

    商業航空航太市場蘊藏著巨大的價值。你說得對,我們應該參與其中──參與價值的創造。所以,從策略角度來看,我們有很多工作要做。我認為這樣做沒有任何障礙,但我們必須了解這樣做所帶來的風險,並確保我們有計劃來管理這些風險。如果這些問題無法緩解,最終就會出現像我們現在這樣的情況,即我們無法分享整個市場的利潤。我的看法也是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

    Robert Stallard,Vertical Research。

  • Robert Stallard - Analyst

    Robert Stallard - Analyst

  • Kelly, again, a strategic sort of question for you. Given the recent geopolitical volatility, are you worried about a return of tariff risk at BCA this year? And similarly on the defense side of the business, a longer-term shift in Europe to more local procurement.

    凱莉,又是一個需要你認真思考的策略性問題。鑑於近期地緣政治動盪,您是否擔心今年BCA會再次面臨關稅風險?同樣,在國防領域,歐洲也正在經歷一場向本地採購的長期轉變。

  • Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Robert Ortberg - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Rob, I wouldn't say worried is something I have to -- we have to continue to watch. As we saw last year, this is super dynamic, right? It could change tomorrow. But I think if you step back from all the dynamics day in, day out, look, I think the -- at least the US administration fully understands the importance of commercial aerospace to the economy -- to the US economy. They've been very supportive. And we've worked through what initially looked like some pretty hairy tariff environments to resulting in pretty good outcomes. So I think we'll be able to continue to focus on that. And again, I think this administration is fully supportive of this industry. It's not going to do things that caused us a major harm.

    是的,羅布,我不會說我該擔心──我們必須繼續觀察。正如我們去年所看到的,這變化非常大,對吧?明天情況可能就變了。但我認為,如果你跳脫日常的各種動態,你會發現,至少美國政府完全理解商業航空航太對美國經濟的重要性。他們一直都非常支持我。我們已經克服了最初看起來相當棘手的關稅環境,並且取得了相當不錯的結果。所以我認為我們可以繼續專注於此。而且,我認為本屆政府完全支持這個產業。它不會再做那些對我們造成重大傷害的事情了。

  • Having said that, as we saw last year, we were shut down for a little while in deliveries into China. That got resolved and we got the deliveries done. We do have about the same number of deliveries this year into China as we had last year. So we got to watch these trade barriers. Certainly, we have a lot of deliveries into Europe. So watching how that whole negotiation plays out, to ensure that we don't get in a tit-for-tat environment on commercial airplanes. Something we're going to have to just continue to work.

    話雖如此,正如我們去年所見,我們對中國的供貨一度中斷了一段時間。問題解決了,貨物也已交付完畢。今年我們對中國的交付量與去年大致相同。所以我們必須關注這些貿易壁壘。當然,我們有很多貨物運往歐洲。所以,我們要密切注意整個談判的進展,以確保我們在商業航班上不會陷入針鋒相對的局面。這是我們只能繼續努力的。

  • But again, I'll just say, the administration has been accessible to us, has listened to our concerns when we've had them. And I think we've ended up with pretty good outcome so far.

    但我還是要說,本屆政府一直都很平易近人,認真傾聽了我們的訴求。我認為到目前為止,我們取得了相當不錯的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

    Noah Poponak,高盛集團。

  • Noah Poponak - Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Analyst

  • Jay, I know you don't want to -- I know you're not quantifying the pieces of the free cash bridge you just gave back to normalized. But I guess I wanted to try to ask, is the total of those pieces greater or less than $7 billion because you have commented on most of those in the past.

    傑伊,我知道你不想——我知道你沒有量化你剛剛歸還的免費現金橋的各個部分,使其恢復正常。但我還是想問一下,這些項目的總額是大於還是小於 70 億美元,因為您過去曾對其中大部分項目發表過評論。

  • And if I take the midpoint of $1 billion to $3 billion of $2 billion and add all those back, it seems like more than high single. So I don't know if you're netting out some positives or if I'm just missing something? And then what is BCA cash if you exclude the abnormalities and you were just basically just 737 and 787 price cost, is that generating cash in your 2026? Or is that closer to breakeven?

    如果我取 10 億美元到 30 億美元這 20 億美元的中間值,然後把所有這些加回去,看起來就超過了高個子數字。所以我不知道你是否發現了一些正面的方面,還是我遺漏了什麼?那麼,如果排除異常情況,只考慮 737 和 787 的價格成本,BCA 的現金流是多少?這在 2026 年能產生現金流嗎?或者說,這更接近損益平衡點?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So Noah, let me just go back to your first question here on these items. Again, you're talking in that range going from low single to high single, kind of, call it, $6 billion to $7 billion in the aggregate. Don't forget in my prepared remarks, what I talked about was the benefit of excess inventory coming down over time. So that is a mitigator.

    諾亞,讓我回到你之前關於這些東西的第一個問題。再說一遍,你指的是從低單筆交易到高單筆交易的那個範圍,總共大概是 60 億到 70 億美元。別忘了,在我事先準備好的演講稿中,我談到的是庫存過剩隨著時間的推移而減少的好處。所以,這是一種緩解措施。

  • The only thing I'd say is the DOJ payment is a onetime event that occurred here in -- is occurring here in 2026, and that just doesn't repeat. It's not something that draws down in any way. So that's the best way to look at it in the aggregate between that $6 billion and $7 billion.

    我唯一想說的是,司法部的付款是一次性事件,發生在——也將在 2026 年發生,而且不會再次發生。它不會以任何方式造成損失。所以,從整體來看,60億到70億美元之間的金額是最好的。

  • As far as BCA cash, look, what I'll tell you there is that we continue to expect that, that's going to improve -- the cash margin is going to improve in our programs, as I said previously. And it's a key enabler to our cash flow getting to $10 billion in the -- and I think as it becomes necessary or we have the visibility, we'll give you more there. But I think I'm going to stop here giving you what the directionally what it needs to be.

    至於 BCA 現金,我可以告訴你的是,我們仍然預期現金流會改善——正如我之前所說,我們專案的現金利潤率將會改善。這是我們實現現金流達到 100 億美元的關鍵因素——我認為,一旦有必要或我們掌握了相關信息,我們會提供更多細節。但我認為我應該就此打住,告訴你它在方向上需要達到什麼程度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gavin Parsons, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的加文·帕森斯。

  • Gavin Parsons - Analyst

    Gavin Parsons - Analyst

  • Jay, I think you're restricted from looking at all of BDS previously. So have you been able to get under the hood of all those programs at this point?

    Jay,我認為你之前無法查看所有 BDS 的內容。那麼,你現在是否已經深入了解了所有這些程式的運作機制?

  • Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jesus Malave - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Let me just talk about -- I mean, just -- as you're right, I was restricted through the end of the year, and I started here in January, doing reviews with BDS. And I think I need to put some context in there because again, I think there's some expectation that I'm doing some kind of an outside the process, EAC kind of deep dives to kind of circumvents the processes that we have already in place. And I'm not doing that. What I am doing is really reviews with our programs as well as my first reviews where we're just with the BDS business in the aggregate.

    是的。讓我簡單說一下——我的意思是,就——正如你所說,我的工作限制一直持續到年底,我從一月份開始在這裡,和 BDS 一起做評論。我覺得我需要補充一些背景信息,因為我覺得大家可能期望我能進行一些流程之外的、EAC式的深入研究,以繞過我們已經制定的流程。我不會那樣做。我現在所做的,實際上是對我們的專案進行審查,以及我對整個 BDS 業務的首次審查。

  • And it's really focused on three things. One is there's just a strategic element to it. One is an operational element and then third is the financial element. And just kind of give you a little color about that is, as I look at program to program, it's trying to understand -- making sure I understand the capabilities being delivered, developed for our customer, understanding the relevance of that capability today and what that means in the future, just strategically. Looking at our current backlog and our delivery profile and how that fits our customers' capability requirements and whether or not we're meeting that mark.

    它主要關註三件事。其一是其中存在戰略因素。一是營運要素,二是財務要素。簡單來說,當我逐一審視各個專案時,我努力理解——確保我理解為客戶交付和開發的能力,並理解這些能力在當今的相關性以及在未來的策略意義。查看我們目前的積壓訂單和交付情況,以及它們如何滿足客戶的能力要求,以及我們是否達到了這項標準。

  • Operationally, looking at program status, things that -- are we on track schedule-wise, things that don't necessarily translate into directly into our financial, but think about earned value type metrics. And just so understanding, get myself baselined on the programs, where they are strategically, where they are operationally and of course, a review of EACs, but more in the context of, again, baselining what needs to happen? What are our key assumptions in those? What are the risks? What are the opportunities? How do we realize the opportunities and how do we mitigate the risk? So I'd call it a little bit higher level than some type of EAC deep dive.

    從營運角度來看,要專注於專案狀態,例如-我們在進度方面是否按計畫進行,這些事情不一定能直接轉化為我們的財務狀況,但要考慮掙值類型的指標。為了更好地理解,我需要了解各個專案的現狀,包括它們的戰略地位、營運狀況,當然還有EAC的審查,但更重要的是,再次強調,要確定需要採取哪些措施?這些假設的關鍵是什麼?有哪些風險?有哪些機會?我們如何抓住機遇,又如何降低風險?所以我認為它比某種EAC深度分析要高一些。

  • To the extent that something pops up in a review, then we'll follow up with that. And I would expect that to occur -- continue to occur throughout this quarter as well as the rest of the year. And that will basically convert and transition over to the normal reviews that we do, the team does with Kelly and the rest of the leadership team. So it's more of a holistic view. If there's anything on a specific EAC or anything like that, that will be handled through the regular EAC process and go up from there.

    如果評論中出現了什麼問題,我們會跟進處理。我預計這種情況會持續發生——不僅在本季度,而且在今年餘下的時間裡也會如此。基本上,這將轉變為我們團隊與凱利和其他領導團隊成員一起進行的正常審查。所以這是一種更全面的觀點。如果某個特定 EAC 或類似事項有任何疑問,將透過常規 EAC 流程處理,然後從那裡開始。

  • So just to give you a little bit of color in terms of how I'm approaching this. And so far, it's been a great experience. The team is doing a great job. As Kelly mentioned in his remarks, they're improving each and every day. And again, they're heavily focused on driving to the customer requirements and meeting their schedule and budget requirements. So a good start on my BDS intra indoctrination.

    所以,我只是想稍微介紹一下我處理這件事的方式。到目前為止,這是一次很棒的體驗。團隊做得非常出色。正如凱利在演講中提到的那樣,他們每天都在進步。他們再次強調,他們非常注重滿足客戶需求,並遵守進度和預算要求。我的牙科本科內部灌輸工作開局不錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that completes The Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining.

    波音公司2025年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。