波音 (BA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Boeing Company's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加波音公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

The management discussion and slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session, are being broadcast live over the Internet.

管理層討論和幻燈片演示以及分析師問答環節均透過網路進行現場直播。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company.

目前，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁馬特·韋爾奇先生進行開場發言和介紹。

Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning.

謝謝你，早安。

Welcome to Boeing's quarterly earnings call.

歡迎參加波音季度財報電話會議。

I'm Matt Welch, and with me today are Kelly Ortberg, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我是馬特‧韋爾奇，今天和我在一起的還有波音公司總裁兼執行長凱利‧奧特伯格；以及波音公司執行副總裁兼財務長布萊恩·韋斯特。

And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation at boeing.com.

提醒一下，您可以在 boeing.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。

Projections, estimates, and goals included in today's discussion involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the beginning of the presentation.

今天討論中包含的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及演示開頭的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。

We also refer you to the disclosures relating to non-GAAP measures in our earnings release and presentation.

我們也請您參閱我們的收益發布和演示中與非公認會計原則措施相關的揭露。

Now, I will turn the call over to Kelly Ortberg.

現在，我將把電話轉給凱利·奧特伯格。

Thanks, Matt, and thanks to everyone for joining today's call.

謝謝馬特，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

Before I get into the fourth-quarter earnings, let me first offer our thoughts and deepest condolences for the families and loved ones of those onboard Jeju Air Flight 2216.

在介紹第四季財報之前，請容許我先向濟州航空 2216 航班上的家人和親人表達我們的思念和最深切的哀悼。

We continue to support the airline and the US National Transportation Safety Board as they assist the South Korean authorities in the accident investigation.

我們將繼續支持該航空公司和美國國家運輸安全委員會協助韓國當局進行事故調查。

Now, turning to the fourth-quarter earnings.

現在，轉向第四季財報。

During the last call, I highlighted four areas critical to our recovery.

在上次電話會議中，我強調了對我們的復甦至關重要的四個領域。

As the new year begins, we're making steady progress in all four areas.

新年伊始，我們在四個領域都取得了穩定進展。

The first area, stabilizing the business.

第一領域，穩定業務。

Following the resolution of the IAM strike, our commercial team has been executing a methodical plan to restart our factories within the framework of our safety management system.

IAM 罷工解決後，我們的商業團隊一直在執行一項有條不紊的計劃，在我們的安全管理體系框架內重啟我們的工廠。

This included ensuring all manufacturing employees were current on their training and certifications prior to returning to work on the factory floor.

這包括確保所有製造員工在返回工廠車間工作之前接受最新培訓和認證。

We took time to rebalance the production line so that when we started up, we did so with a healthy production system.

我們花時間重新平衡生產線，以便在啟動時擁有健康的生產系統。

People are back to work and excited about the task ahead.

人們重返工作崗位，並對未來的任務感到興奮。

And you can see the energy when you're on the factory floor.

當你在工廠車間時，你可以看到能量。

For the 737 MAX, we have sufficient parts inventory to enable producing at 38 a month, including fuselages, which were a pacing item prior to the strike.

對於 737 MAX，我們有足夠的零件庫存，能夠以每月 38 架的速度生產，其中包括機身，這是罷工前的一個重點項目。

And all three of the production lines in Renton are now cycling.

倫頓的所有三條生產線現在都在循環運行。

In the past quarter, we completed our safety management meeting with the FAA in which they reviewed our safety management system and our production status, including spending time on the factory floor.

在上個季度，我們完成了與美國聯邦航空局的安全管理會議，他們在會上審查了我們的安全管理系統和生產狀況，包括在工廠車間的工作時間。

They reported that they saw significant improvements.

他們報告說他們看到了顯著的改進。

And I'm pleased that we have an agreed-upon path for rate increases beyond 38 per month.

我很高興我們就每月 38 美元以上的加息達成協議。

It's all about adhering to our safety management system and a stable factory as measured through agreed-upon key performance indicators, or KPIs.

這一切都是為了遵守我們的安全管理系統和透過商定的關鍵績效指標 (KPI) 來衡量的穩定工廠。

It's the early innings on the production ramp, and we need to stay disciplined on maintaining a stable production system, but early signs are encouraging.

這是產量提升的早期階段，我們需要保持紀律以維持穩定的生產系統，但早期跡象令人鼓舞。

The best news is that our customers are reporting that they are encouraged with what they're seeing as they monitor our production.

最好的消息是，我們的客戶報告說，他們在監控我們的生產時所看到的一切讓他們深受鼓舞。

Progress on the 787 also continues, and we finished last year at a production rate of five per month.

787 的進度也持續，去年我們的生產力達到了每月 5 架。

Like the 737, we are working to ensure the 787 production system, including the supply chain, is stable prior to making the next rate increase.

與 737 一樣，我們正在努力確保 787 生產系統（包括供應鏈）在下次加價之前保持穩定。

An important accomplishment to stabilize the business was to shore up our balance sheet.

穩定業務的一項重要成就是支撐我們的資產負債表。

We are committed to recovering the business while maintaining an investment grade credit rating and delivering for our shareowners.

我們致力於恢復業務，同時維持投資等級信用評級並為我們的股東帶來回報。

I think the demand for our offering last year speaks volumes about the market's confidence in our recovery.

我認為去年對我們產品的需求充分說明了市場對我們復甦的信心。

We're working across the supply chain, including the sub tiers, to ensure readiness and stability with our production rates.

我們正在整個供應鏈（包括子層）開展工作，以確保我們的生產力做好準備並保持穩定。

Notably, supplier part shortages across all of our commercial programs are within their established control limits.

值得注意的是，我們所有商業計劃中的供應商零件短缺都在其既定的控制範圍內。

We have instituted dedicated sessions with suppliers to provide insights as well as to promote two-way communication to stay aligned as we operate together as one extended production system.

我們與供應商召開了專門會議，以提供見解並促進雙向溝通，以便在我們作為一個擴展生產系統共同運作時保持一致。

The second element of our recovery is the improved performance on our development programs.

我們復甦的第二個要素是改善我們的發展計畫的績效。

While the charges for the quarter in BDS are disappointing, I have had the opportunity to complete deep dive EAC reviews on all the troubled programs.

雖然 BDS 本季的費用令人失望，但我有機會完成 EAC 對所有問題項目的深入審查。

We are very focused on creating stability within the EACs so we stop this quarterly drumbeat of cost growth.

我們非常注重在東非共同體內創造穩定，因此我們停止了季度成本增長的鼓吹。

This means being more proactive and clear-eyed on the risks and our estimates to complete the projects.

這意味著我們對風險和完成專案的估計更加積極主動和清醒。

While I know it doesn't show in this past quarter's performance, we're making progress in working with our customers to actively manage the contracts to achieve better outcomes for both parties.

雖然我知道這在上個季度的業績中沒有體現出來，但我們在與客戶合作積極管理合約方面取得了進展，為雙方取得更好的成果。

You've seen that we've entered into an MOA with the US Air Force on the T-7A program, and we're in active discussions on a second MOA on that program, all focused on improving the performance of the program.

您已經看到，我們已經與美國空軍就 T-7A 項目達成了諒解備忘錄，我們正在積極討論該項目的第二份諒解備忘錄，所有這些都集中在提高該項目的性能上。

We're also in active discussions with our customer on the VC-25B program to make the necessary changes to improve the program performance and delivery.

我們還與客戶就 VC-25B 計劃進行積極討論，以做出必要的更改以提高計劃性能和交付。

The US Air Force's term this as an active management, which is a term I really like.

美國空軍將此稱為主動式管理，這是我非常喜歡的術語。

We're focused on actively managing all of our problematic programs to improve the performance for the company and our customers.

我們致力於積極管理所有有問題的計劃，以提高公司和客戶的績效。

While I said there's no silver bullet on these fixed price programs, I do feel better about our ability to better manage the performance in 2025.

雖然我說過這些固定價格計劃沒有靈丹妙藥，但我確實對我們在 2025 年更好地管理績效的能力感覺更好。

On the commercial side, we continue to focus on getting the 737-7 and 737-10 as well as the 777X through certification.

在商業方面，我們繼續專注於讓 737-7 和 737-10 以及 777X 通過認證。

There are no updates to the timelines we've previously communicated on these programs.

我們之前就這些計劃傳達的時間表沒有更新。

On the 737-7 and 737-10, we're still working through the testing phase focused on finalizing the icing design solution, which we plan to include in the certification program.

對於 737-7 和 737-10，我們仍在完成測試階段，重點是最終確定結冰設計解決方案，我們計劃將其納入認證計劃中。

Working closely with the FAA, especially in light of their leadership changes, will be a key focus area for us this year.

與美國聯邦航空局的密切合作，特別是考慮到他們的領導層變動，將是我們今年的重點領域。

The 777X is back in flight test, and we have a good handle on fixing the thrust link issue we uncovered.

777X 重新進行飛行測試，我們很好地解決了我們發現的推力連桿問題。

Now moving to a third area, cultural change.

現在轉向第三個領域，文化變革。

This will be a multi-year journey, but we're already making progress.

這將是一個多年的旅程，但我們已經取得了進展。

Our leaders are getting more engaged with their teams and customers.

我們的領導者越來越多地與他們的團隊和客戶互動。

We're having the frank discussions about what we need to change.

我們正在坦誠地討論我們需要改變什麼。

In 2025, we'll be re-baselining or core values and behaviors to make our expectations perfectly clear to all our Boeing teammates.

2025 年，我們將重新制定核心價值和行為基準，以使所有波音團隊成員都清楚了解我們的期望。

These we will be incorporated into our leadership development program and become fundamental elements of our performance management system.

我們將把這些納入我們的領導力發展計劃，並成為我們績效管理系統的基本要素。

Leadership promotions will be grounded not only in what we get done, but how we get things done.

領導力晉升不僅取決於我們所做的事情，還取決於我們完成工作的方式。

We're going to help focus the teams on what it takes to make Boeing successful and promote a culture of unity and accountability by implementing a single enterprise score for all of our annual incentive plans.

我們將透過為我們所有的年度激勵計劃實施單一的企業評分，幫助團隊將注意力集中在如何使波音取得成功，並促進團結和問責的文化。

As I talk with employees, there's a growing swell of excitement around restoring trust and getting their Boeing back. and they want to be a part of this turnaround.

當我與員工交談時，人們對恢復信任和恢復波音的興奮感越來越高。他們希望成為這轉變的一部分。

So last area is building a new future for Boeing.

最後一個領域是為波音公司打造新的未來。

While workforce reductions are always difficult, I'm pleased that we have been able to reduce layers of management and redundant overheads in our system.

雖然裁員總是很困難，但我很高興我們能夠減少系統中的管理層級和冗餘管理費用。

This will serve us well as we establish a less bureaucratic, more focused, and agile operating environment for our future.

這對我們很有幫助，因為我們可以為未來建立一個更少官僚主義、更專注、更靈活的營運環境。

We're preparing for the road ahead by continue to make important investments in our core business while streamlining our portfolio in areas that aren't core to us.

我們正在為未來的道路做好準備，繼續對我們的核心業務進行重要投資，同時在非核心領域精簡我們的投資組合。

So let me wrap up by saying that the markets we serve are robust and growing.

最後，我要說的是，我們服務的市場強勁且不斷成長。

Demand for our core commercial and defense products and services remains strong.

對我們核心商業和國防產品及服務的需求仍然強勁。

Our backlog of more than $0.5 trillion clearly demonstrates the value of our portfolio, and we're focused on meeting our commitments and delivering safe, high-quality products to our customers.

我們超過 0.5 兆美元的積壓訂單清楚地證明了我們產品組合的價值，我們致力於履行我們的承諾，為客戶提供安全、高品質的產品。

I do want to acknowledge and thank the incredibly talented employees at Boeing.

我確實想感謝並感謝波音公司非常有才華的員工。

Your resiliency and commitment gives me confidence in our path forward.

你們的韌性和承諾讓我對我們前進的道路充滿信心。

It's going to take all of us working together.

這需要我們所有人共同努力。

Next, let me turn it over to Brian to cover the operating results.

接下來，讓我把它交給布萊恩來報道營運結果。

And after that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

之後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

So Brian, over to you.

那麼布萊恩，就交給你了。

Thank you, Kelly, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，凱利，大家早安。

Let's start with total company financial performance for the quarter.

讓我們從本季公司整體財務表現開始。

Revenue was $15.2 billion, down 31%, primarily driven by lower commercial deliveries associated with the IAM work stoppage.

營收為 152 億美元，下降 31%，主要是由於 IAM 停工導致商業交付量減少。

The core loss per share was $5.90, primarily reflecting previously announced impacts of the IAM work stoppage and agreement, charges on certain defense programs, as well as costs associated with workforce reductions announced last year.

每股核心虧損為 5.90 美元，主要反映了先前宣布的 IAM 停工和協議的影響、某些國防項目的費用以及去年宣布的裁員相關成本。

Free cash flow was a use of $4.1 billion in the quarter, in line with the expectations shared at our last earnings call.

本季自由現金流使用 41 億美元，與我們上次財報電話會議的預期一致。

Results were impacted by lower commercial deliveries and unfavorable working capital timing, primarily driven by the IAM work stoppage.

結果受到商業交付量下降和不利的營運資金時機的影響，這主要是由 IAM 停工造成的。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover Boeing commercial airplanes.

翻到下一頁，我將介紹波音商用飛機。

BCA delivered 57 airplanes in the quarter.

BCA 本季交付了 57 架飛機。

Revenue was $4.8 billion, and operating margin was minus 43.9%, primarily reflecting previously announced impacts from IAM work stoppage and agreement including pre-tax charges of $1.1 billion on the 777X and 767 programs.

收入為 48 億美元，營業利潤率為負 43.9%，主要反映了先前宣布的 IAM 停工和協議的影響，包括 777X 和 767 項目的 11 億美元稅前費用。

Backlog in the quarter ended at $435 billion and includes more than 5,500 airplanes.

本季的積壓訂單達到 4,350 億美元，其中包括超過 5,500 架飛機。

Now, I'll give more color on the key programs.

現在，我將對關鍵程序進行更多說明。

The 737 program delivered 36 airplanes in 4Q, including a step up to 18 in December.

737 項目在第四季度交付了 36 架飛機，其中 12 月增加到 18 架。

And as of yesterday, we've delivered 33 airplanes in January with four days to go.

截至昨天，我們 1 月已交付 33 架飛機，距離交付還有 4 天。

On production, we restarted the factory in December and plan to gradually increase rate.

在生產方面，我們在12月重新啟動了工廠，並計劃逐步提高產量。

We expect to be in a position to go above 38 per month later in the year.

我們預計今年稍後每月的銷售量將達到 38 以上。

All three lines in our Renton factory are cycling, and monthly production is already in the low to mid-20s for January.

我們倫頓工廠的所有 3 條生產線都在循環運行，1 月的月產量已經在 20 左右。

More broadly on the master schedule, we continue to make adjustments as needed and manage supplier by supplier based on inventory levels.

更廣泛地說，在主計劃上，我們繼續根據需要進行調整，並根據庫存水準逐個供應商進行管理。

Over the past year, our buffer inventory has grown to promote stability across our production system.

在過去的一年裡，我們的緩衝庫存有所增加，以促進整個生產系統的穩定性。

As production stabilizes and rates increase over time, we plan to deliberately return buffer inventory to more normal levels.

隨著產量趨於穩定且產量隨著時間的推移而增加，我們計劃有意將緩衝庫存恢復到更正常的水平。

The quarter ended with 55 737-8s built prior to 2023, the majority for customers in China and India, down five from 3Q, with about another 10 already delivered in January.

本季末，2023 年之前建造了 55 737-8 架，其中大部分面向中國和印度的客戶，比第三季減少了 5 架，另有約 10 架已於 1 月交付。

Given the impact of the strike, we now expect to shut down the shadow factory midyear and deliver all remaining airplanes to customers within the year.

考慮到罷工的影響，我們現在預計將在年中關閉影子工廠，並在年內向客戶交付所有剩餘的飛機。

On the 777-7/777-10, inventory levels were stable at approximately 35 airplanes, and testing on the anti-icing design solution is ongoing with certification expected to follow later in the year.

777-7/777-10 的庫存水準穩定在約 35 架飛機，防冰設計解決方案的測試正在進行中，預計今年稍後進行認證。

On the 787 program, we delivered 15 airplanes in the quarter as we made progress on working through production recovery plans for heat exchangers and delivery delays associated with seats certifications.

在 787 專案中，我們在本季度交付了 15 架飛機，因為我們在製定熱交換器生產恢復計劃以及與座椅認證相關的交付延遲方面取得了進展。

The program exited the year at a production rate of five per month.

該計劃於當年結束時的產量為每月 5 個。

And we recently announced plans to expand South Carolina operations as we prepared for anticipated future needs of the commercial market.

我們最近宣布了擴大南卡羅來納州業務的計劃，為商業市場的預期未來需求做好準備。

We are intent on ensuring the production system and the supply chain demonstrate stability prior to making the next increase on rates sometime this year.

我們致力於確保生產系統和供應鏈在今年某個時候進行下一次加價之前表現出穩定性。

We ended the quarter with 25 airplanes and inventory built prior to 2023 that require rework, down five from last quarter.

截至本季末，我們有 25 架飛機和 2023 年之前製造的庫存需要返工，比上季減少了 5 架。

Our ability to finish the rework and shut down the shadow factory was also impacted by the work stoppage, and we expect to complete this work in early 2025.

我們完成返工和關閉影子工廠的能力也受到停工的影響，我們預計在 2025 年初完成這項工作。

Finally, on 777X, as previously announced, the $900 million pre-tax charge primarily reflects higher estimated labor costs associated with finalizing the IAM agreement and will be incurred over the next several years.

最後，對於 777X，正如先前宣布的那樣，9 億美元的稅前費用主要反映了與最終確定 IAM 協議相關的較高估計勞動力成本，並將在未來幾年內產生。

Flight testing recently resumed.

飛行測試最近恢復。

And we still expect first delivery in 2026 and will continue to follow the lead of the FAA as we move through certification.

我們仍然預計 2026 年首次交付，並將繼續遵循 FAA 的領導，通過認證。

777X inventory spend in 2024 finished at $2.6 billion as 4Q spending levels moderated due to the work stoppage.

由於停工，第四季度支出水準有所放緩，2024 年 777X 的庫存支出最終達到 26 億美元。

As noted previously, we expect the cash profile to look similar to prior development programs with the first year prior to first delivery typically the largest use of cash driven by inventory build associated with the production ramp which will unwind as deliveries accelerate.

如前所述，我們預計現金狀況與先前的開發計劃類似，首次交付之前的第一年通常是由與產量增加相關的庫存增加驅動的最大現金使用量，隨著交付加速，庫存增加將減少。

Moving onto the next page and Boeing Defense and Space.

進入下一頁，波音防務與航太公司。

BDS booked $8 billion in orders during the quarter, including awards for 15 KC-46A tankers from the US Air Force and seven P-8A aircrafts for the US Navy, and the backlog ended at $64 billion.

BDS 在本季度獲得了 80 億美元的訂單，其中包括美國空軍的 15 架 KC-46A 加油機和美國海軍的 7 架 P-8A 飛機，積壓訂單最終達到 640 億美元。

Revenue was $5.4 billion, down 20% year over year on volume and program charges, and operating margin was minus 41.9%.

收入為 54 億美元，銷售和節目費用年減 20%，營業利益率為-41.9%。

BDS deliver 34 aircraft and two satellites in the quarter, including the final T-7A EMD aircraft to the US Air Force.

BDS 在本季度交付了 34 架飛機和兩顆衛星，其中包括向美國空軍交付的最後一架 T-7A EMD 飛機。

The 15% of their portfolio comprised of fixed price development programs recorded a $1.7 billion pre-tax charge as previously announced.

正如先前宣布的那樣，其投資組合中 15% 的固定價格開發項目記錄了 17 億美元的稅前費用。

The fixed price development cost pressures were driven by the KC-46A and T-7A programs, with KC-46 primarily reflecting higher estimated manufacturing costs, including the impacts of the IAM work stoppage and agreement, and T-7 driven by higher estimated production costs on contracts in 2026 and beyond.

固定價格開發成本壓力是由KC-46A和T-7A計劃驅動的，其中KC-46主要反映了較高的估計製造成本，包括IAM停工和協議的影響，而T-7則由較高的估計產量推動2026 年及以後的合約成本。

Roughly one-third of these new charges will work through the cash flows in the next few years, with the remainder spread over the coming decade.

這些新費用中大約三分之一將在未來幾年內透過現金流發揮作用，其餘部分將在未來十年內分配。

Given this fixed price nature of these contracts, we'll continue to be transparent about impacts as we work to stabilize and mature these programs.

鑑於這些合約的固定價格性質，我們在努力穩定和成熟這些計劃時將繼續對影響保持透明。

We acknowledge that these are disappointing results.

我們承認這些結果令人失望。

These are complicated develop programs, and we remain focused on retiring risk each quarter and ultimately delivering these mission-critical capabilities to our call customers.

這些都是複雜的開發計劃，我們仍然專注於每季消除風險，並最終向我們的呼叫客戶提供這些關鍵任務功能。

As Kelly shared, we continue to make progress in 4Q, including key order and delivery milestones already noted.

正如凱利分享的那樣，我們在第四季度繼續取得進展，包括已經注意到的關鍵訂單和交付里程碑。

Importantly, the updated acquisition approach for the T-7A is a proof point for how we are working with our customers to find better overall outcomes for both parties, and those efforts will continue as we work through other parts of the portfolio.

重要的是，更新後的 T-7A 採購方法證明了我們如何與客戶合作，為雙方找到更好的整體成果，並且在我們處理產品組合的其他部分時，這些努力將繼續下去。

On the 25% of the portfolio, primarily comprised of fighter satellite programs.

25% 的投資組合主要由戰鬥機衛星項目組成。

Our fighter programs again recognized losses in 4Q due to disruptions associated with the F-15EX ramp-up and the F-18 production wind down.

我們的戰鬥機專案在第四季度再次確認了由於 F-15EX 產能增加和 F-18 生產減少帶來的中斷而造成的損失。

We also recognize impacts across satellites and a few other legacy platforms tied to development realities as we work to refresh the capabilities of these platforms to support our customer needs.

當我們努力更新這些平台的功能以支援客戶需求時，我們也認識到與發展現實相關的衛星和其他一些遺留平台的影響。

The remaining 60% of revenues of the portfolio are generally performing in the mid- to high-single-digit margin range, although the P8 commercial derivative program experienced margin compression in the fourth quarter due to the IAM work stoppage and agreement.

儘管 P8 商業衍生品項目由於 IAM 停工和協議而在第四季度經歷了利潤壓縮，但該投資組合其餘 60% 的收入總體上表現在中高個位數的利潤範圍內。

While still more work in front of us, we continue to be confident that BDS margins can improve to high-single-digit levels in the medium to longer term.

儘管我們面前還有更多工作要做，但我們仍然相信 BDS 的利潤率可以在中長期內提高到高個位數水準。

The demand for our defense products remains very strong, supported by the threat environment confronting our nation and our allies.

在我們國家和盟友面臨的威脅環境的支持下，對我們國防產品的需求仍然非常強勁。

We still expect the business to return to historical performance levels as we stabilize production, execute on development programs, and transition to new contracts with tighter underwriting standards.

我們仍然預計，隨著我們穩定生產、執行開發計劃以及過渡到承保標準更嚴格的新合同，業務將恢復到歷史業績水平。

Moving on to the next page, Boeing Global Services.

進入下一頁，波音全球服務。

BGS continued to perform well, delivering record operating margins in the quarter.

BGS 繼續表現良好，本季營業利潤率創歷史新高。

The business received $6 billion in orders, and the backlog ended at $21 billion.

該公司收到了 60 億美元的訂單，積壓訂單達到 210 億美元。

Revenue was $5.1 billion, up 6%, primarily on higher commercial volume.

營收為 51 億美元，成長 6%，主要得益於商業銷售的增加。

Operating margin was a record 19.5% in the quarter, up 210 basis points compared to last year, with both our commercial and government businesses delivering double-digit margins.

本季營業利潤率達到創紀錄的 19.5%，比去年增長 210 個基點，我們的商業和政府業務均實現了兩位數的利潤率。

In the quarter, BGS secured awards for C-17 sustainment as well as a contract for F-15 Japan Super Interceptor upgrade and services from the US Air Force.

本季度，BGS 獲得了美國空軍的 C-17 維護合約以及 F-15 日本超級攔截機升級和服務合約。

BGS is a terrific long-term franchise focused on profitable, capital-efficient service offerings and executing well with mid-single-digit revenue growth, mid-teen margins, and very high cash flow conversion.

BGS 是一家出色的長期特許經營公司，專注於提供盈利、資本高效的服務產品，並以中個位數的收入增長、中雙位數的利潤率和非常高的現金流轉換執行良好。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover cash and debt.

翻到下一頁，我將討論現金和債務。

On cash and marketable securities, we ended the quarter at $26.3 billion, primarily reflecting the successful $24 billion capital raise in October, partially offset by the free cash flow usage and debt repayment.

就現金和有價證券而言，本季末我們的收入為 263 億美元，主要反映了 10 月成功籌集的 240 億美元資金，部分被自由現金流使用和債務償還所抵消。

The debt balance ended at $53.9 billion, down $3.8 billion in the quarter, driven by the early repayment of a $3.5 billion bond originally set to mature in 2025.

由於提前償還原定於 2025 年到期的 35 億美元債券，債務餘額最終為 539 億美元，本季減少 38 億美元。

Importantly, this pre-payment derisks our 2025 maturity profile, resulting in $800 million of debt maturities remaining in the year.

重要的是，這種預付款降低了我們 2025 年到期情況的風險，導致該年剩餘 8 億美元的債務到期。

The company maintains access to $10 billion of revolving credit facilities, all of which remain undrawn.

該公司保留 100 億美元的循環信貸額度，且全部尚未提取。

We remain committed to managing the balance sheet in a prudent manner with two main objectives: first, continue to prioritize the investment grade rating; and second, allow the factory and supply chain reset.

我們仍致力於審慎管理資產負債表，主要目標有二：一是繼續優先考慮投資等級評等；其次，允許工廠和供應鏈重置。

We will continue to evaluate opportunities to further supplement the balance sheet as we make certain portfolio decisions through the course of the year.

當我們全年做出某些投資組合決策時，我們將繼續評估進一步補充資產負債表的機會。

Turning to the next page, I'll cover the total financial company results for the full year.

翻到下一頁，我將介紹金融公司全年的整體表現。

Full-year revenue was $66.5 billion, down 14% year over year, driven by lower commercial deliveries, including impacts of the IAM work stoppage.

由於商業交付量下降（包括 IAM 停工的影響），全年收入為 665 億美元，年減 14%。

The core loss per share was $20.38, down from prior year primarily on lower deliveries in commercial and defense program charges, including impacts of the IAM work stoppage and agreement.

每股核心虧損為 20.38 美元，較上年下降，主要是由於商業和國防項目費用交付減少，包括 IAM 停工和協議的影響。

Free cash flow was a $14.3 billion usage for the year. down versus prior year on commercial deliveries and unfavorable working capital timing, including the impact of the work stoppage.

全年自由現金流使用量為 143 億美元。商業交付量與前一年相比有所下降，營運資金安排不利，包括停工的影響。

Stepping back, let me provide some additional context on 2025 free cash flow. 2025 will be an important year in our recovery.

退一步，讓我提供一些有關 2025 年自由現金流的額外背景資訊。 2025年將是我們復甦的重要一年。

And while we still expect it to be a use of cash, we anticipate a significant improvement over 2024.

雖然我們仍然預計這將是現金使用，但我們預計 2024 年將會有顯著改善。

Within 2025, we expect 1Q free cash flow will be a usage and similar to 4Q '24, driven by continued working capital headwinds as we ramp production as well as normal seasonality.

到 2025 年，我們預計第一季的自由現金流將與 24 年第四季類似，這是由於我們提高產量以及正常季節性帶來的持續營運資本逆風的推動。

We still expect the first half to be a use of cash with the second half turning positive and accelerating as we exit 2025.

我們仍預計上半年將主要使用現金，下半年將轉為正值，並隨著 2025 年的結束而加速。

CapEx investments stepped up last year and could increase by approximately $500 million in 2025 to support planned growth across both the commercial and defense businesses.

去年資本支出投資加大，到 2025 年可能增加約 5 億美元，以支持商業和國防業務的計畫成長。

Importantly, we expect to exit the year with real momentum in the business as we return to normal production rates.

重要的是，隨著我們恢復到正常的生產力，我們預計今年將以真正的業務動能結束。

This outlook will be underwritten by a few critical factors: increasing 737 production rates through the year, moving 787 steadily towards its long-term production rates, liquidating our legacy 737 and 787 inventory and shutting down both shadow factories, strategically investing in the business including the 777X production ramp and CapEx to support planned growth across the portfolio, improving our defense business as we continue to mature the fixed price development programs and work to transition recently challenged programs with our renewed focus on disciplined program management and stabilizing the business, and finally, continuing to demonstrate strong performance across our services business.

這一前景將由幾個關鍵因素支撐：全年提高 737 的生產率、使 787 穩步實現其長期生產率、清理我們遺留的 737 和 787 庫存並關閉兩家影子工廠、戰略性投資該業務，包括777X 的產量提升和資本支出，以支持整個產品組合的計劃增長，隨著我們繼續成熟固定價格開發計劃，改善我們的國防業務，並通過重新關注嚴格的計劃管理和穩定業務，努力過渡最近面臨挑戰的計劃，最後，繼續在我們的服務業務中展現強勁的業績。

Broadly, the markets we serve continue to be significant, and our backlog of more than $0.5 trillion demonstrates that our product portfolio is positioned to win.

總體而言，我們服務的市場仍然很重要，我們的積壓訂單超過 0.5 兆美元，這表明我們的產品組合有能力獲勝。

Long term, these fundamentals underpin our confidence as we continue to manage the business with a long-term view built on safety, quality, and delivering for our customers.

從長遠來看，這些基本原則支撐著我們的信心，因為我們將繼續以基於安全、品質和為客戶提供服務的長期視角來管理業務。

With that, I'd like to open it up for questions.

說到這裡，我想打開它來提問。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Kelly, I wanted to ask how you viewed the restart on MAX, how that's gone.

Kelly，我想問你如何看待 MAX 的重啟，情況如何。

You mentioned some of the -- you mentioned KPPs that you have with the -- or KPIs that you have with the FAA.

您提到了您與 FAA 的一些 KPP 或 KPI。

Can you maybe elaborate on what exactly those are, how close you're already hitting, what's necessary to get to -- to go above 38 a month?

您能否詳細說明一下這些到底是什麼，您已經達到了多少目標，需要什麼才能達到每月 38 以上？

And then Brian, can you just give us an idea of what to expect for all-in MAX and 787 deliveries in 2025?

Brian，您能為我們介紹一下 2025 年 MAX 和 787 的全部交付情況嗎？

Yeah, David.

是的，大衛。

So let me talk about the production startup on MAX.

那我就來談談MAX上的製作啟動吧。

So as you know, we came out of the strike and didn't actually jump right on building aircraft.

如你所知，我們從罷工中走出來，並沒有真正開始建造飛機。

We spent time training the workforce, getting them all up to speed, but also really, as I said, balancing the line, which is really important, starting the line up in a stable manner.

我們花時間培訓員工，讓他們都跟上進度，但正如我所說，平衡生產線，這非常重要，以穩定的方式啟動生產線。

And it already is paying dividends.

它已經開始帶來紅利。

We're seeing the production process come back very well.

我們看到生產過程恢復得很好。

And I feel pretty good about where we are right now with the production rate.

我對我們目前的生產力感到非常滿意。

Remember that we've got a significant amount of inventory, both in airplanes and in supply parts.

請記住，我們有大量的庫存，包括飛機和供應零件。

So I don't see any constraints right now from the supply chain for us in ramping up the 737 to the 38 a month rate.

因此，我認為目前供應鏈對我們將 737 飛機的價格提高到每月 38 架沒有任何限制。

And notably, the work at Spirit has -- during this strike has really paid off.

值得注意的是，在這次罷工期間，Spirit 的工作確實得到了回報。

That team has done a great job of improving the overall performance and quality of the fuselages, which are going to help flow through the factory.

該團隊在提高機身的整體性能和品質方面做得非常出色，這將有助於工廠的順利生產。

So as I said, it's early days, but I feel really good.

正如我所說，現在還為時過早，但我感覺非常好。

And I think our deliberate plan is going to pay dividends for us going forward.

我認為我們深思熟慮的計劃將為我們的未來帶來紅利。

And David, a little bit on how to think about 737 deliveries for the year.

David 介紹如何思考今年 737 的交付量。

We're not putting out formal guidance, a little too early for that.

我們不會發布正式的指導意見，現在還為時過早。

But let's just talk about a framework for the year.

但我們只談今年的框架。

So January is off to a very solid start, and delivery should be in the high 30s for the month.

因此，一月份的開局非常穩健，該月的交付量應該在 30 左右。

Now keep in mind, some of these airplanes are the benefit of clearing the delivery center ramp that had accumulated in the November or December time frame.

現在請記住，其中一些飛機是清理 11 月或 12 月期間累積的交付中心坡道的好處。

So there's an advantage of a nice tailwind entering the year.

因此，進入今年有一個有利的順風的優勢。

We expect February will be lighter because there's fewer manufacturing days and also the timing of the factory restart.

我們預計 2 月的天氣會比較清淡，因為生產天數較少，而且工廠重啟的時間也較少。

And then March is likely to be better than February as we begin to get more predictability.

然後，隨著我們開始獲得更多的可預測性，三月可能會比二月更好。

So as we've said, the first half is going to reflect our gradual steady restart of the factory.

正如我們所說，上半年將反映出我們工廠的逐步穩定重啟。

And the second half is likely going to benefit from achieving higher production rates, which include the 38 per month target and possibly higher based on approval from the FAA, as Kelly mentioned.

正如凱利所提到的，下半年可能會受益於實現更高的生產率，其中包括每月 38 架的目標，並且根據 FAA 的批准可能會更高。

So as we sit here today, we've got a lot of work in front of us. 2025, in some ways, could look like 2023, maybe a bit better, if things go our way.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們面前有很多工作。如果事情進展順利，2025 年在某些方面可能會像 2023 年，甚至可能更好。

Hey, David.

嘿，大衛。

Let me come back also and talk about the six KPIs that you asked about.

我也回來談談你問到的六個KPI。

So these are KPIs that we've agreed with the FAA on what the threshold is and where the control limits we want to operate.

這些是我們與美國聯邦航空局就門檻以及我們想要操作的控制限制達成一致的關鍵績效指標。

And these are what we collectively determined will measure the stability of our production system.

這些是我們共同確定的衡量我們生產系統穩定性的指標。

I'll quickly tell you what the six are.

我很快就會告訴你這六個是什麼。

They're NOE, notice of escape hours; shortages, part shortages; employee proficiency; rework by line; traveled work at rollout; and ticketing performance.

他們是 NOE，逃生時間通知；短缺、零件短缺；員工的熟練程度；按行返工；推出時出差工作；和票務表現。

And so I will say it's a little bit early because we have a lot of inventory yet of planes that were in process that we're going through.

所以我想說現在有點早，因為我們還有大量正在處理的飛機庫存。

But early indications is that all the KPIs are looking and trending in the right direction.

但早期跡象表明，所有 KPI 都在朝著正確的方向發展。

So I feel so far so good, but it will be important to see and continue to measure these KPIs as we continue to ramp up.

到目前為止，我感覺很好，但隨著我們繼續提升，查看並繼續衡量這些 KPI 非常重要。

And remember, we need to get to 38 and show stability at 38 with these KPIs.

請記住，我們需要達到 38，並透過這些 KPI 顯示 38 的穩定性。

And we won't go to the FAA for a rate increase.

我們不會向美國聯邦航空局要求提高費率。

We won't request one if we don't see these KPIs performing the way that we want to.

如果我們沒有看到這些 KPI 的表現符合我們的預期，我們就不會提出要求。

And so I think we've got a disciplined approach.

所以我認為我們採取了嚴格的方法。

As I said in my remarks, I'm pleased that it's pretty well grounded in facts and data.

正如我在演講中所說，我很高興它有充分的事實和數據基礎。

So there's no subjectivity here as far as what it's going to take.

因此，就其需要採取的措施而言，這裡不存在主觀性。

But we've got to perform, and Stephanie and the team are clearly focused on performing to these KPIs.

但我們必須執行，Stephanie 和團隊顯然專注於執行這些 KPI。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Hey, Brian.

嘿，布萊恩。

Maybe if you could walk us through a little bit on the free cash flow dynamics for 2025.

也許您可以向我們介紹一下 2025 年的自由現金流動態。

I know you called out a few things, some of the moving parts.

我知道你提到了一些事情，一些活動的部分。

But just thinking about working capital headwinds or 777X spend or BDS losses, we've been estimating about a $5 billion outflow this year.

但僅考慮營運資本逆風或 777X 支出或 BDS 損失，我們就估計今年的資金流出約 50 億美元。

I think it's little above the consensus of $4 billion.

我認為這略高於 40 億美元的共識。

Anything to highlight that you could help us maybe that potentially could be -- reduce that outflow?

有什麼需要強調的，您可以幫助我們，也許可以減少資金外流？

Or how are you thinking?

或者你覺得怎麼樣？

I know you gave us the first half versus second half dynamics, but anything else that you could provide more color on.

我知道你給了我們上半場和下半場的動態，但你可以提供更多的色彩。

Yeah.

是的。

Sure, Peter.

當然，彼得。

So 2025 free cash flow is largely going to be consistent with what we've said at our October earnings call with the two adjustments that I noted, which is CapEx a little bit higher based on some growth programs that we're anxious to invest in and the impact of a few hundred million based on the updated BDS charges.

因此，2025 年的自由現金流在很大程度上與我們在10 月的財報電話會議上所說的一致，並進行了我指出的兩項調整，即根據我們渴望投資的一些增長計劃，資本支出略高一些根據更新後的北斗系統收費，將產生數億美元的影響。

So it's consistent with those two adjustments.

所以這與這兩個調整是一致的。

Now in terms of profile, as we've discussed and you mentioned, the first half will be negative, the second half will be positive.

現在就概況而言，正如我們所討論的和您所提到的，上半年將是負面的，下半年將是正面的。

It will be a net usage in the calendar year.

這將是日曆年的淨使用量。

But importantly, positive momentum as we accelerate cash flows exiting the year that sets us up very nicely for 2026.

但重要的是，隨著我們加速現金流退出這一年的積極勢頭，我們為 2026 年奠定了良好的基礎。

Now in terms of levers.

現在就槓桿而言。

The first half of the year, BCA is going to be negative, driven by the working capital usage and continued investment in the 777X program.

今年上半年，受營運資金使用和 777X 專案持續投資的推動，BCA 將為負值。

BDS is going to be negative due to the prior period charges running through as well as normal seasonality as it pertains to customer receipts.

由於前期費用以及與客戶收據相關的正常季節性，BDS 將為負值。

And BGS is going to be nice and steady contributor in the first half.

BGS 將在上半年做出良好且穩定的貢獻。

As we go into the second half, BCA is expected to flip positive because then, it will get the benefit of the working capital as deliveries accelerate while we still invest in the 777X program.

當我們進入下半年時，BCA 預計將轉為正值，因為屆時，隨著交付加速，它將獲得營運資金的好處，同時我們仍然投資 777X 專案。

Again, it's all going to be a function of our ability to work that as higher deliveries in the back half.

再說一次，這一切都取決於我們後半場更高的交付能力。

Now BDS is going to move positive despite a continued drag from the charges primarily from the benefit of favorable receipt timing that's natural and seasonal in that part of the business.

現在，儘管費用持續拖累，但 BDS 仍將呈正增長，這主要是由於該業務部分的自然和季節性的有利收貨時機的好處。

And then BGS, we tend to (technical difficulty) our second half and first half.

然後BGS，我們傾向於（技術難度）我們的下半場和上半場。

So it's going to be a nice steady but growing profile for the second half.

因此，下半年的情況將是一個穩定但不斷增長的局面。

And as I mentioned, the CapEx is going to be a bit higher, but for good reasons because that's all about growth.

正如我所提到的，資本支出將會更高一些，但這是有充分理由的，因為這一切都與成長有關。

So in terms of the numbers that you described, that's a reasonable ballpark or what we're aiming at.

因此，就您所描述的數字而言，這是一個合理的大概，或者說是我們的目標。

And we're managing all the levers and keep you updated as we move through the course of the year.

我們正在管理所有的槓桿，並在這一年中向您通報最新情況。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Kelly, maybe on the fixed price development programs within BDS.

凱利，也許是關於 BDS 內的固定價格開發計劃。

It seems like the timing to stabilize those keeps getting pushed to the right.

似乎穩定這些的時機一直被推到右邊了。

How are you actively managing those programs?

您如何積極管理這些計劃？

And what are you looking to change?

您希望改變什麼？

And then, Brian, related to that, how do you correlate those charges?

然後，布萊恩，與此相關的是，你如何將這些指控聯繫起來？

I think you mentioned one-third is now.

我想你提到的三分之一就是現在。

Can you maybe size that cash outflow for '25?

能否估算一下 25 年的現金流出規模？

Is it $3 billion related to BDS and then $1 billion in '26?

是與 BDS 相關的 30 億美元，然後是 26 年的 10 億美元嗎？

Does the business become breakeven in '27?

27 年業務能否達到損益兩平？

And when does it become positive?

什麼時候變得正面？

Okay.

好的。

Sheila, I'll go first and then ask Brian to follow up.

希拉，我先去，然後請布萊恩跟進。

Yeah, so obviously, the quarter was disappointing here on the fixed price development programs.

是的，很明顯，本季的固定價格開發計劃令人失望。

But as I said in my remarks, we're very actively now working all these programs with our customers.

但正如我在演講中所說，我們現在正在非常積極地與客戶合作所有這些計劃。

And we've got -- the US Air Force is clearly working with us to find a better path forward on these programs, both for us and for them.

我們已經看到，美國空軍顯然正在與我們合作，為我們和他們尋找更好的推進這些計劃的道路。

So derisking through this active management process is different, and it's -- we still have to convert these MOAs, which are memorandum of agreements.

因此，透過這種主動管理流程消除風險是不同的，我們仍然必須轉換這些協議備忘錄，即協議備忘錄。

We have to convert them to contract changes.

我們必須將它們轉換為合約變更。

So we're in early stages, but the customers are working with us in that regard.

所以我們還處於早期階段，但客戶正在這方面與我們合作。

And then I think just as I said, taken a real clear look at the EACs and the estimates to complete and making sure that we're reflecting the realities of the risks that we have.

然後我認為，正如我所說，對 EAC 和要完成的估計進行了真正清晰的審視，並確保我們反映了我們所面臨的風險的現實情況。

And so I'm very hopeful that we're going to see a much more stable performance here this next year.

因此，我非常希望明年我們能看到更穩定的表現。

But again, we're not done with these until we're done with these, and they are fixed price.

但同樣，在我們完成這些之前，我們還沒有完成這些，而且它們是固定價格的。

So we've got to continue to work at this.

所以我們必須繼續在這方面努力。

Our team is very, very focused on program management discipline, making sure we're managing the task at hand, but a lot of work yet to do, Sheila, on these.

我們的團隊非常非常注重專案管理紀律，確保我們正在管理手邊的任務，但希拉，在這些方面還有很多工作要做。

I think we're making progress, but I can't -- certainly can't claim victory yet.

我認為我們正在取得進展，但我還不能——當然還不能宣布勝利。

And Sheila, in terms of the cash flow, you're correct.

希拉，就現金流而言，你是對的。

The new charge of $1.7 billion, we characterized about a third of that is going to be over the next three years.

新費用為 17 億美元，我們預計其中約三分之一將在未來三年內支付。

So -- and it's a little bit front-end loaded, so a few million dollars -- a few hundred million dollars of pressure that we see in 2025 versus what we said back in October.

因此，與我們在 10 月所說的相比，我們在 2025 年看到的壓力有一點前端，所以有幾百萬美元、幾億美元。

Now in terms of the broader question on the full way the charges are going to tend to flow through.

現在就更廣泛的問題而言，費用將如何流動。

I think BDS for 2025 from a cash flow performance is going to look a little bit like 2023.

我認為從現金流表現來看，2025 年的 BDS 看起來有點像 2023 年。

And then once we get through 2025, it will be a much different spot because a lot of that headwind from the charge will be behind us.

一旦我們到了 2025 年，情況將大不相同，因為充電帶來的許多阻力將成為過去。

And when we get exactly to breakeven positive won't be this year.

當我們真正實現損益平衡時，不會是今年。

But I can't wait to have that discussion as we move out beyond exiting this year.

但我迫不及待地想在我們今年退出之後進行討論。

Got it.

知道了。

So breakeven could be possible in '26 or maybe '27?

那麼 26 年或 27 年可能會達到損益平衡嗎？

Yeah, for sure.

是的，當然。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Kelly, could you talk about how you're thinking about Boeing's portfolio?

凱利，您能談談您如何看待波音的投資組合嗎？

I mean, there's been a fair amount of press about maybe some things could be up for sale, maybe not.

我的意思是，有相當多的媒體報告說有些東西可能可以出售，也可能不能。

What's core, what isn't?

什麼是核心，什麼不是？

So like the way I've been thinking about it, one of the things that's been talked about is maybe selling Jeppesen.

就像我一直在思考的方式一樣，人們談論的事情之一可能就是出售傑普森。

But on one hand, maybe that's a good idea.

但一方面，也許這是個好主意。

But on the other hand, that puts Boeing's name in pretty much every cockpit of every airplane on the planet.

但另一方面，這使得地球上幾乎每架飛機的每個駕駛艙都帶有波音的名字。

And is that a bad thing?

這是一件壞事嗎？

So I mean, how are you thinking about it?

所以我的意思是，你怎麼想的？

Well, so first of all, Ron, we've been through the detailed portfolio review, which was one of my early paths, and that's complete, highlighted areas that are questionable to our core.

好吧，首先，羅恩，我們已經完成了詳細的投資組合審查，這是我的早期路徑之一，這是完整的、突出顯示的對我們核心有疑問的領域。

And we go through an analysis to look at each of those areas, and we're in process in that.

我們對每個領域都進行了分析，我們正在進行中。

As I've looked at this, here's how I would think about it, Ron.

當我看到這個時，我會這樣想，羅恩。

This is not going to be a major restructuring of the Boeing Company.

這不會是波音公司的重大重組。

The core business that you see us in, we're going to continue to be in those core areas.

您看到我們從事的核心業務，我們將繼續從事這些核心領域。

But there are some areas -- yeah, you named one.

但有一些領域——是的，你提到了一個。

There are some areas where we can streamline the organization or we may be better off focusing our energy elsewhere.

在某些領域我們可以精簡組織，或者我們最好將精力集中在其他地方。

And we'll be actioning those over the coming months and year.

我們將在未來幾個月和一年內採取這些行動。

The only thing I would say is that as you look at those, part of that decision process is what do you do with something.

我唯一要說的是，當你看到這些時，決策過程的一部分就是你如何處理某些事情。

In some cases, you have potential that you could sell it and there are buyers.

在某些情況下，您有可能出售它並且有買家。

In some cases, that may not be a viable approach.

在某些情況下，這可能不是一個可行的方法。

We may want to just not continue with the next phase of the project or something like that.

我們可能不想繼續專案的下一階段或類似的事情。

So we're going through that.

所以我們正在經歷這件事。

But I think if I give you any guidance, think of it as more pruning the portfolio, not cutting down the tree.

但我認為，如果我給你任何指導，請將其視為更多地修剪投資組合，而不是砍倒樹木。

Got it.

知道了。

And you'd expect maybe we'll know more about this in the next 12 to 18 months, something like that?

您是否希望我們在未來 12 到 18 個月內對此有更多了解，諸如此類？

Yeah.

是的。

Look, I can't really speak about individual portfolio decision areas.

聽著，我真的不能談論個人投資組合決策領域。

But as they come along, obviously, you'll see what we're doing there.

但顯然，當他們出現時，您就會看到我們在那裡所做的事情。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

So on the supply chain and maybe the Spirit integration, how key is that to your ability to get to 38 and then get above 38?

那麼，在供應鏈上，或許還有 Spirit 整合上，這對於你達到 38 並隨後超過 38 的能力有多關鍵？

And then if you could just quickly touch on the 787 and the supply chain constraints you're observing there, specifically on interiors and if heat exchangers are still the issue, and how quickly you expect those to release within the context of 2025?

然後，您是否可以快速談談 787 以及您在那裡觀察到的供應鏈限制，特別是內飾方面，以及熱交換器是否仍然是問題所在，您預計這些限制將在 2025 年發布？

Yeah, Myles.

是的，邁爾斯。

So look, on Spirit, I don't view Spirit fuselages as a constraint right now for us to get to rate 38.

因此，就 Spirit 而言，我不認為 Spirit 機身目前是我們達到 38 分的限制。

As I mentioned in the remarks, they've done a really, really nice job of improving the quality of the fuselage and the flow of the fuselages.

正如我在評論中提到的，他們在提高機身品質和機身流動性方面做得非常非常好。

So we're in really, really good shape on fuselages with Spirit, which sets up a very successful integration.

因此，我們與 Spirit 的機身狀況非常非常好，這建立了非常成功的整合。

We've got a team of Boeing folks at Spirit working hand in glove with them as they've improved their production processes.

我們在 Spirit 擁有一支由波音人員組成的團隊，與他們密切合作，並改善了他們的生產流程。

And I think that sets us well -- sets us up well for the upcoming integration, which will happen sometime.

我認為這讓我們為即將到來的整合做好了準備，這將在某個時候發生。

Still we're projecting middle of the year.

我們仍然預計今年年中。

Relating to 787 inventory -- or I mean supply chain, as Brian said in his remarks, I think we're working through the heat exchangers.

關於 787 庫存——或者我指的是供應鏈，正如布萊恩在演講中所說，我認為我們正在透過熱交換器進行工作。

We're still -- need some additional improvement there.

我們仍然需要一些額外的改進。

But all the improvements look good.

但所有的改進看起來都不錯。

Seats remain a challenge for us.

座位對我們來說仍然是一個挑戰。

And it's not the seat -- we call it seats, but it's the monuments really that go around the seats and the integration of the IFE and the certification associated with that.

這不是座椅——我們稱之為座椅，而是座椅周圍的紀念碑以及 IFE 和與之相關的認證的整合。

And we're still challenged in getting through cert on some new [of type] seats on 787.

我們仍然面臨著通過 787 上一些新[類型]座椅認證的挑戰。

We got a plan on that.

我們對此有一個計劃。

It's really a customer-by-customer basis.

這實際上是根據客戶的情況而定的。

One of the things we're looking at for the future is we've got to spread these new seat configurations -- we call them code ones.

我們未來關注的一件事是我們必須推廣這些新的座椅配置——我們稱之為代碼座椅配置。

We've got to spread these code ones out to allow ourselves and the regulators more time to get through the certification.

我們必須將這些代碼分散開來，以便我們自己和監管機構有更多時間通過認證。

These things are complex.

這些事情很複雜。

They're not a seat; they're a complex monument.

它們不是座位，而是座位。它們是一座複雜的紀念碑。

And particularly as we move to doors, doors are a real challenge in the certification process.

尤其是當我們轉向門時，門是認證過程中的一個真正的挑戰。

And so we've got to work through some of that.

所以我們必須解決其中的一些問題。

We've got a team really focused on that.

我們有一個團隊真正專注於此。

But I think it's going to continue to be a challenge for those 787 deliveries where we have a new seat configuration that needs to be certified.

但我認為這對 787 的交付來說仍然是一個挑戰，因為我們有需要認證的新座椅配置。

So for example, Lufthansa, we've got a lot of completed airplanes that are held up still on seats, and we're working through that.

例如，漢莎航空，我們有很多完成的飛機仍然固定在座位上，我們正​​在解決這個問題。

Hopefully, we'll get through that this year and we'll have a more successful seat integration program as we ramp 787 up.

希望今年我們能夠解決這個問題，並且隨著 787 的升級，我們將擁有更成功的座椅整合計劃。

Okay.

好的。

And Brian, the delivery number for 787 for this year. 75, 80, is that a doable number?

Brian，今年 787 的交車數量。 75、80，這個數字可行嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So as we've said, we're at five per month.

正如我們所說，我們每月五個。

We want to get to seven sometime this year, and we've got, call it, high-teens coming out of inventory.

我們希望今年某個時候能達到七個，而且我們已經有，可以說，高十幾歲的庫存已經售罄。

So when you add all that together, for sure, maybe a little bit better.

所以當你把所有這些加在一起時，肯定會更好一些。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Kelly, could you characterize the pace of which you think the business can liquidate 777X aircrafts from inventory once EIS hits?

Kelly，您能否描述一下，一旦 EIS 出現，您認為企業可以以何種速度清理庫存中的 777X 飛機？

And then are you expecting the first-class cabin seats to be certified for the 777X launch customers by the time 777X itself is type certified or is there any risk of delay there on seating as well?

那麼，您是否期望在 777X 本身獲得型式認證時，為 777X 首發客戶提供頭等艙座椅認證，或者是否也存在座椅延遲的風險？

Yeah.

是的。

Let me take the seating first, and then I'll ask Brian to do the liquidation.

讓我先入座，然後我會請布萊恩進行清算。

So actually, the first delivery -- 777X delivery is also to Lufthansa, which is where, I just mentioned, we have had seat and continue to have seat challenges.

所以實際上，第一次交付——777X 也是交付給漢莎航空的，我剛才提到，我們已經有座位，並且繼續面臨座位挑戰。

So I guess the good news, bad news is we've had seat challenges.

所以我想好消息和壞消息是我們遇到了座位挑戰。

But we do know what those challenges are for Lufthansa deliveries.

但我們確實知道漢莎航空的交付面臨哪些挑戰。

Now 777X interior, in general, is a more complex interior, but that's baked into our overall certification program for the aircraft.

現在，777X 的內裝總體來說是一個更複雜的內飾，但這已納入我們飛機的整體認證計劃中。

So we got time to go work the seat certification issues, and we've learned from our 787 what those issues are.

因此，我們有時間去解決座椅認證問題，我們從 787 中了解了這些問題是什麼。

So I think we'll be able to manage that for the initial deliveries.

所以我認為我們將能夠在最初的交付中做到這一點。

And Scott, in terms of cash flows, as is typical on a new program, heavy cash usage the year before EIS, which is going to be for 2025.

Scott 就現金流而言，正如新計劃的典型情況一樣，EIS 之前一年（即 2025 年）會大量使用現金。

In terms of 2026, when it goes into service, keep in mind, the initial airplanes are going to be changing corp airplanes which are going to be not high cash flow airplanes.

就 2026 年而言，當它投入使用時，請記住，最初的飛機將更換為公司飛機，而這些飛機將不是高現金流的飛機。

But once you get through those and you get out of 2026 and then in 2027, you're really going to start to generate free cash flows.

但一旦你完成了這些任務，過了 2026 年，然後到 2027 年，你就真的會開始產生自由現金流。

And that's going to accelerate as deliveries accelerate.

隨著交付速度的加快，這種情況將會加速。

So we're going to be set up very nicely once we get through EIS.

因此，一旦我們通過了 EIS，我們的設置就會非常好。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

I guess I wanted to follow up on maybe two other items as we think about the cash flow this year.

我想在我們考慮今年的現金流時，我想跟進另外兩個項目。

You talked about winding down the shadow factories, both of them, I guess.

我猜你談到了關閉影子工廠，兩者都是。

That was something that in the past, we've talked about as a key enabler of enhanced profitability.

這是我們過去所談論的提高獲利能力的關鍵推動因素。

How do we think about factoring that into the cash flow improvement that we're seeing this year?

我們如何考慮將其納入今年我們看到的現金流改善？

And then also, any -- the financial implications and cash flow implications of Spirit integration in the second half.

然後，下半年精神整合的財務影響和現金流影響。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

Let me take a stab at that one.

讓我來嘗試一下。

So as you know, we've got two shadow factories.

如你所知，我們有兩個影子工廠。

The 737 has largely been in Moses Lake.

737 大部分時間都在摩西湖。

The 787 has been the joint verification work in Everett.

787已在埃弗雷特進行聯合驗證工作。

And there is a lot of labor to go into reworking those airplanes.

改造這些飛機需要大量的勞動力。

As it pertains to the 787, we expect the very early part of this year, that work will be done.

由於涉及 787，我們預計這項工作將在今年年初完成。

Now we won't deliver all the airplanes this year because we've got some customer fleet planning, things we need to sit in with.

現在我們今年不會交付所有飛機，因為我們有一些客戶機隊規劃，我們需要參與其中。

So that will bleed over into next year.

因此，這將持續到明年。

But the factory itself and the labor associated with that is going to be over the early part of this year, and labor has already started to move towards other first run production.

但工廠本身以及與之相關的勞動力將在今年年初結束，並且勞動力已經開始轉向其他首輪生產。

On the 737 equally, Moses Lake, we've begun to take labor and move it from Moses Lake into Renton.

同樣，在 737 上，摩西湖，我們已經開始將勞動力從摩西湖轉移到倫頓。

We expect to shut that shadow factory down by midyear.

我們預計在年中之前關閉該影子工廠。

And then the corresponding deliveries will tail off towards the end of this year.

然後相應的交付量將在今年年底前減少。

So it's been a long journey.

所以這是一段漫長的旅程。

We look forward to that.

我們對此充滿期待。

It's all contemplated into our -- the numbers I discussed and described in terms of how cash flows are going to move this year.

這一切都被考慮到我們的——我討論和描述的關於今年現金流將如何變化的數字中。

I would say that over time, the benefit you're going to start to see is the margin improvement at BCA because you don't have these two very expensive shadow factories up and running anymore.

我想說，隨著時間的推移，你將開始看到的好處是 BCA 的利潤率提高，因為你不再擁有這兩個非常昂貴的影子工廠。

They'll be done.

他們會完成的。

So that will be something that will be 2026 and beyond.

所以這將是 2026 年及以後的事。

As it pertains to Spirit integration, as Kelly said, we're anxious.

正如凱利所說，由於涉及精神整合，我們感到焦慮。

One, they're doing a great job.

第一，他們做得很好。

We're anxious to get it closed.

我們急於將其關閉。

We're not really describing what the financial impact on that is until we close.

在我們結束之前，我們並沒有真正描述對此的財務影響。

But the good news is that we're on pace, it remains strategically important, and the team is holding up really nicely at a pivotal point as we ramp production.

但好消息是，我們正在加快步伐，它仍然具有重要的戰略意義，而且在我們提高產量的關鍵時刻，團隊表現得非常好。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

What is it about the T-7A specifically that it keeps having so much cost creep?

T-7A 到底有什麼特別之處，導致其成本不斷攀升？

And I guess, Kelly, as you look at this portfolio, everything in defense is complex and appreciate the amount of work that goes into these.

我想，凱利，當你看到這個組合時，防守中的一切都很複雜，並且欣賞這些工作量。

But I think there's been some investor confusion around the dollar size relative to the perceived complexity of these programs.

但我認為，相對於這些計畫的複雜性，投資人對美元規模感到困惑。

So what is causing the cost creep and how do you fix it?

那麼是什麼導致了成本攀升以及如何解決它？

And you mentioned the updated acquisition approach on that program specifically.

您特別提到了該計劃的更新獲取方法。

Can you detail that a little bit further?

能再詳細說明一下嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So the fundamental on T7 is a fixed price development with a large fixed-price production.

所以T7的根本是固定價格開發和大量固定價格生產。

And we did not have our supply chains back to back in the fixed price production.

而我們的供應鏈並沒有以固定價格生產。

So it's much larger than what you would normally see because very rarely do you see where you have -- first of all, where you have a fixed price development, but certainly don't have multiyears of fixed-price production.

所以它比你通常看到的要大得多，因為你很少看到你擁有的地方——首先，你有固定價格的開發，但肯定沒有多年的固定價格生產。

We've been burned on that on the tanker program.

我們在油輪計劃上已經被燒傷了。

And clearly, that's been a challenge for us on T7A.

顯然，這對我們的 T7A 來說是一個挑戰。

So we've taken our medicine.

所以我們已經吃藥了。

We're not going to do that anymore.

我們不會再這樣做了。

Now specific to the MOA, what we're doing is making changes.

現在具體到 MOA，我們正在做的是做出改變。

The Air Force wants some additional test aircraft, that will allow us to eliminate concurrency.

空軍需要一些額外的測試飛機，這將使我們能夠消除並發性。

And by concurrency, what I mean is we're still -- we're building a production airplanes while we're testing and certifying the design.

說到並發，我的意思是我們仍然在測試和認證設計的同時建造一架生產型飛機。

And that's a disaster because every time you come up with a change that comes out of that, you've got to go ripple that change back through the production process, either in process or airplanes that are complete.

這是一場災難，因為每次你想出一個由此產生的改變時，你都必須在生產過程中（無論是在生產過程中還是在完成的飛機中）將這種改變波及回來。

So the major milestone with the MOA one that we've got with the Air Force really helps us get more aircraft into the test program, eliminates concurrency risk for us going forward.

因此，我們與空軍達成的 MOA 的重大里程碑確實幫助我們讓更多的飛機進入測試計劃，消除了我們未來的並發風險。

So it's not necessarily good news from an EAC write-up, but it's certainly going to eliminate risk that we are staring at on the program.

因此，EAC 的報告不一定是好消息，但它肯定會消除我們關注該計劃的風險。

And then on MOA two, which is -- we're in active discussion with them.

然後是 MOA 2，我們正在與他們積極討論。

It's also on making some changes to equipment purchased by us versus purchased by the Air Force directly, which will also help them with their logistics support plans, but also derisk our escalation risk associated with those commodity sets.

它還對我們購買的設備與空軍直接購買的設備進行一些改變，這也將有助於他們的後勤支援計劃，但也會降低與這些商品相關的升級風險。

So that's the type of stuff we've got to get better at is working those things with the customer.

因此，我們必須更好地與客戶合作。

But the fundamental to this is a fixed price development with a fixed price production option and not having your supply chain back to back is not a good recipe.

但其根本是採用固定價格生產選項的固定價格開發，並且不讓供應鏈背對背並不是一個好辦法。

And we've learned and we're not going to do that anymore.

我們已經學到了，我們不會再這樣做了。

So appreciate learning that lesson and not doing that again.

因此，感謝吸取教訓，不要再這樣做了。

But if you live with the decisions that were made on the existing programs for -- until the end of those programs, how do you have confidence in the cash flow improvement in the segment in the near term that you've expressed here?

但是，如果您接受對現有計劃所做的決定，直到這些計劃結束，那麼您對您在此表示的近期該部門現金流改善的信心如何？

Well, so -- I mean, we do an estimate at complete and look at the estimate to complete.

嗯，所以——我的意思是，我們在完成時進行估算，並查看要完成的估算。

So much of the charges that we're taking are not actual charges for overruns to date.

到目前為止，我們收取的大部分費用並不是超支的實際費用。

They're anticipated charges for increased cost from our supply chain.

他們預計會因我們的供應鏈成本增加而收取費用。

So we are getting the supply chain back to back and fixed price right now.

因此，我們現在正在讓供應鏈背對背並固定價格。

Our goal is to get that 100% done.

我們的目標是 100% 完成。

But as we're doing that, we're having to recognize the cost increases from the supply chain.

但當我們這樣做時，我們必須認識到供應鏈的成本增加。

So that's why I have confidence.

這就是為什麼我有信心。

We're getting closer to having that all back to back.

我們越來越接近實現這一切。

So we've eliminated eliminate that large risk going forward.

因此，我們已經消除了未來的巨大風險。

But obviously, it's resulting in pretty significant charges as we read through that.

但顯然，當我們閱讀該內容時，這會導致相當大的費用。

And Noah, what I would say, long term, our objective has always been to get to 15% of the portfolio that's wrapped up in these fixed-price development programs including T7 to not be a drag, to just be neutral, to be at the zero profit and not consume cash.

諾亞，我想說的是，從長遠來看，我們的目標始終是讓這些固定價格開發計劃（包括 T7）所包含的投資組合的 15% 不成為拖累，只是保持中立，零利潤，不消耗現金。

The rest of the portfolio, when we get the 25% fighter satellites performing as they should, given they're legacy products and 60% of the portfolio that's doing quite well, if we can get that all moving in the right direction, that gets you to the path to high single-digit margins in BDS, like they should be even with a 50% of the portfolio that isn't going to do anything for us.

投資組合的其餘部分，當我們讓25% 的戰鬥機衛星發揮應有的性能時，考慮到它們是傳統產品，而投資組合中60% 的表現相當不錯，如果我們能讓所有這些都朝著正確的方向發展，那就可以了你會在 BDS 中獲得高個位數的利潤，就像他們應該有 50% 的投資組合對我們沒有任何幫助一樣。

And that's fine because long term, outside of the plan period in front of us, those development programs, including tanker, including MQ, including T7, there are a longer-term opportunities with market demand, particularly internationally, that actually could have us do a little bit better that we're not counting on.

這很好，因為從長遠來看，在我們面前的計劃期限之外，那些開發計劃，包括油輪，包括MQ，包括T7，市場需求存在長期機會，特別是國際市場需求，這實際上可以讓我們做比我們指望的要好一點。

But longer term, those are the reason why we stay in these programs and deliver capabilities to the customers they absolutely need.

但從長遠來看，這就是我們堅持這些計劃並向他們絕對需要的客戶提供功能的原因。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

It sounds like you're in a very good position right now to get to the 38 a month level given that you're already at the 20 -- in the 20s on the MAX.

聽起來你現在處於非常有利的位置，可以達到每月 38 的水平，因為你已經在 20 了——在 MAX 上是 20 多歲。

But historically, upward rate breaks have been pretty challenging.

但從歷史上看，上調利率是相當具有挑戰性的。

And when you look beyond the 38 a month to 42 and subsequent rate breaks, how are you thinking about what you need to get done to make sure that you have the right team in place to make those rate breaks happen, given that a lot of people have left over the past five years or so?

當您超越每月 38 次到 42 次以及隨後的利率優惠時，您如何考慮需要做什麼來確保您擁有合適的團隊來實現這些利率優惠，因為考慮到許多過去五年左右有人離開了嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

As I look at that, I'm less concerned about our -- the people resources to do that.

當我看到這一點時，我不太關心我們的人力資源來做到這一點。

I think we're in good shape.

我認為我們的狀態很好。

Once we get to these higher rate breaks, the most important thing is that we have the supply chain ready and mature.

一旦我們達到這些更高的利率，最重要的是我們的供應鏈已準備好並成熟。

And one of the things we're doing right now -- because we've forecasted rates that the supply chain has built to, and then we haven't met those rates.

我們現在正在做的事情之一 - 因為我們已經預測了供應鏈的建立速度，但我們還沒有達到這些速度。

So I want to make sure that supply chain isn't making independent decisions on readiness for these out-year production rates and continuing to invest in the capacity that they need to supply us.

因此，我想確保供應鏈不會就這些年外生產力的準備做出獨立決定，並繼續投資於向我們供應所需的產能。

So we've started, as I said in the opening remarks, open communication.

因此，正如我在開場白中所說，我們已經開始進行開放式溝通。

And what that means is at various levels, including CEO level, we're making sure that they are investing in their supply chain and, if they're not, they're talking to us about why, and we're working through what we do to make sure that we don't get to a point where we're ready to get to the next rate increase and the supply chain stability is not going to be there.

這意味著在各個層面，包括執行長層面，我們確保他們正在投資他們的供應鏈，如果他們沒有投資，他們會與我們討論原因，我們正在努力解決問題我們這樣做是為了確保我們不會達到下次升息的地步，而供應鏈的穩定性也將不復存在。

Now remember, these KPIs that I talked about earlier, those are going to stay with us for each rate increase.

現在請記住，我之前談到的這些關鍵績效指標將在每次升息時保留在我們身邊。

So we won't make a rate increase if we -- well, we won't be approved for it, but we won't request it if our production system isn't showing that these metrics are indicating stability.

因此，如果我們——嗯，我們不會獲得批准，我們就不會提高費率，但如果我們的生產系統沒有顯示這些指標表明穩定性，我們就不會提出要求。

So we got to continue to work that.

所以我們必須繼續努力。

But I'm not too sure or too concerned about the overall staffing level of the production resources.

但我不太確定或不太關心生產資源的整體人員配置水準。

It's probably more focusing on the supply chain for that growth.

它可能更關注供應鏈的成長。

And Doug, the other good news is the facilitization.

道格，另一個好消息是便利化。

We're cycling at three lines in Renton, as Kelly mentioned; and we've got that fourth line in Everett.

正如凱利所提到的，我們在倫頓的三條線路上騎自行車；我們在埃弗里特有第四條線。

And that is going to create a lot of flexibility for us as we think about those rate breaks.

當我們考慮這些利率調整時，這將為我們創造很大的靈活性。

So not only is it labor, parts, supply chain, et cetera; but the facilitization is there as well.

因此，這不僅是勞動力、零件、供應鏈等；還有其他方面。但便利化也在那裡。

So we feel pretty confident that tools are all there in place.

所以我們非常有信心工具都已就位。

And of course, the demand is there, which is beneficial.

當然，需求是存在的，這是有利的。

And is there anything you would point to in the supply chain that you particularly want to focus on to make sure you don't run into an issue when you take your next breakup?

您在供應鏈中是否有什麼是您特別想要關注的，以確保您在下次分手時不會遇到問題？

No, not in particular.

不，不是特別。

I think there's multiple areas that will work with all the -- all of our Tier 1 OEMs probably have a commodity in their portfolio that we want to make sure.

我認為有多個領域可以與我們所有的一級 OEM 合作，他們的產品組合中可能有我們想要確保的商品。

But it's generally more in the commodities where there's long lead components like forgings, castings, that kind of stuff.

但通常更多的是有長鉛零件的商品，如鍛件、鑄件等。

I'm less worried about electronics.

我不太擔心電子產品。

That's a pretty easy area to scale.

這是一個非常容易擴展的領域。

But it's where you have to invest in that second and third tier supply chain that we want to make sure that they're making those investments and they haven't hedged their bets.

但這是你必須投資第二層和第三層供應鏈的地方，我們希望確保他們正在進行這些投資，並且他們沒有對沖他們的賭注。

And they'll believe we're going to build the airplanes, and then we find out that we don't have the capacity there.

他們會相信我們要製造飛機，然後我們發現我們沒有能力製造飛機。

And one of the things that we're working very closely with GE on is that the overall -- making sure they understand our overall market demand as well as the aftermarket demand for the engines as well.

我們與通用電氣密切合作的一件事是確保他們了解我們的整體市場需求以及引擎的售後市場需求。

Because they've got a big challenge with supporting our rate increases, our competitor rate increases, and managing the aftermarket.

因為他們在支持我們的費率上漲、我們的競爭對手的費率上漲以及管理售後市場方面面臨著巨大的挑戰。

And I work very closely with Larry and his team to make sure we stay aligned.

我與拉里和他的團隊密切合作，以確保我們保持一致。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Brian, one for you and then just a quick one for Kelly as well.

布萊恩，給你一份，然後也給凱利一份快速的。

Brian, for you, BCA margins.

Brian，對你來說，BCA 利潤率。

You took some charges this quarter on the programs that were in forward loss positions.

本季您對處於遠期虧損狀態的計劃收取了一些費用。

I suspect though that will have some impacts on the margins for some of your more profitable programs as well given all those costs.

不過，考慮到所有這些成本，我懷疑這會對您的一些利潤更高的項目的利潤產生一些影響。

I'm just curious, what does the margin cadence look like for BCA over the next six to eight quarters as you're ramping in production?

我只是很好奇，隨著產量的增加，BCA 在未來六到八個季度的利潤節奏會是什麼樣子？

When do we get the chance here to flip to the positive range on margins?

我們什麼時候有機會將利潤率轉向正值範圍？

And then just the long-term implications of these cost increases coming out of the labor strike, that thing, on the financial model and what BCA margins are going to stake to over time once you're up at those targeted production rates?

然後，勞工罷工帶來的這些成本增加對財務模型的長期影響，以及一旦達到目標生產力，隨著時間的推移，BCA 的利潤率將達到多少？

And then Kelly, just really quickly for you.

然後凱利，對你來說真的很快。

I received the company's corporate calendar.

我收到了該公司的公司行事曆。

It's got the X66 on the cover.

封面上有 X66。

Just wondering if you could comment a little bit on that aircraft and what it means to the company and your general views on that development program for NASA.

只是想知道您是否可以對這架飛機發表一些評論，它對公司意味著什麼，以及您對 NASA 開發計劃的整體看法。

Yeah.

是的。

Let me take the latter part of that first.

讓我先講後半部。

So it's an important technology development program.

所以這是一個重要的技術開發計畫。

It's very challenging.

這非常具有挑戰性。

It's taking some dedicated resources that I think are learning new things and exploring new technologies for us.

它需要一些專門的資源，我認為這些資源正在為我們學習新事物並探索新技術。

And then we'll look at what comes out of that and how that factors into our next airplane.

然後我們將研究由此產生的結果以及它如何影響我們的下一架飛機。

So it's an important project that we're working on.

所以這是我們正在進行的一個重要項目。

We've got some funding.

我們有一些資金。

We're investing, but we've also got some funding there to support us.

我們正在投資，但我們也有一些資金來支持我們。

So we'll continue to explore that exciting opportunity and see what that portends for the future airplane.

因此，我們將繼續探索這個令人興奮的機會，看看這對未來的飛機意味著什麼。

I will tell you, I've sat through the -- through with the team and there's some exciting stuff that we're learning from that program.

我會告訴你，我已經和團隊一起度過了整個過程，我們從該計劃中學到了一些令人興奮的東西。

And so I think we want to continue that.

所以我認為我們想繼續這樣做。

And Jason, in terms of BCA margins.

Jason 則表示 BCA 利潤率。

So as we think about 2025, margins will be negative.

因此，當我們考慮 2025 年時，利潤率將為負值。

They'll be less negative as we move through the next few quarters as we exit the year.

隨著今年的結束，接下來的幾個季度，它們的負面影響將會減少。

And then beyond that, we're going to expect them to get better in 2026.

除此之外，我們預計他們會在 2026 年變得更好。

We're not going to try to characterize it quite yet.

我們還不打算嘗試描述它的特徵。

It's too early.

還太早了。

But in terms of the longer-term profile, the IAM agreement did put pressure.

但從長遠來看，IAM 協議確實帶來了壓力。

But keep in mind, we're talking about a cost that's less than 5% of the airplane.

但請記住，我們談論的是低於飛機 5% 的成本。

Now it's a little bit of pressure, but I'd characterize that versus the massive productivity benefit that we're going to enjoy by having two shadow factories behind us and a rate ramp that's going to accelerate productivity naturally.

現在有一點壓力，但我認為，與我們將通過擁有兩家影子工廠和自然提高生產率而享受的巨大生產率收益相比，我們會享受這一點。

So it doesn't disrupt our margin expectations over the long term.

因此，從長遠來看，這不會影響我們的利潤預期。

A lot of work in order to get this pressure behind us, but plenty of levers that we think work towards our favor.

為了消除這種壓力，我們做了很多工作，但我們認為有很多手段對我們有利。

That doesn't necessarily disrupt the long term.

這並不一定會破壞長期發展。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

I just wanted to follow up on that BCA margin question a little bit with the price side of that, the price/cost mix.

我只是想稍微跟進一下 BCA 利潤問題的價格方面，即價格/成本組合。

How much of MAX 10 starting to contribute helps drive the margin up, how much of escalators or realized price increases over the coming years?

MAX 10 有多少開始貢獻有助於提高利潤率，自動扶梯或未來幾年實現的價格上漲有多少？

And then a quick clarification on inventory.

然後快速澄清庫存。

Just how much cash is tied up in both completed aircraft and WIP?

成品飛機和在製品中到底佔了多少現金？

So in terms of the profile for BCA, of course, we've got a backlog that is in place that has embedded escalation in it.

因此，就 BCA 的概況而言，我們當然有積壓的工作，其中包含升級。

That hasn't changed.

這一點沒有改變。

That's good.

那挺好的。

And in terms of our supply contracts, they're vastly signed up until end of this decade.

就我們的供應合約而言，到本十年末，它們已經大量簽訂。

So that doesn't really disrupt the near term or even the medium term per se.

因此，這並不會真正擾亂近期甚至中期本身。

I will tell you, though, as we move forward, we will expect any kind of inflation pressure to be offset by an expectation that we continue to drive productivity.

不過，我會告訴你，隨著我們前進，我們預期任何形式的通膨壓力都會被我們繼續提高生產力的預期所抵銷。

So we think we'll be able to manage that mix.

所以我們認為我們將能夠管理這種組合。

More to come as we move out of this year and get into more of that normal stable position.

當我們走出今年並進入更多正常的穩定狀態時，會有更多的事情發生。

But nothing right now would suggest it's going to disrupt that long-term margin outlook that BCA has enjoyed historically.

但目前還沒有任何跡象表明它會破壞 BCA 歷來享有的長期利潤前景。

And of course, some of the mix benefits that you mentioned, both the 10 on the 37 and the 10 and the 87 are going to be natural tailwinds, including the consolidation of Charleston that we've always talked about and we still feel very good about as we move towards normal production rates.

當然，你提到的一些混合優勢，37 上的 10 以及 10 和 87 都將成為自然的順風車，包括我們一直在談論的查爾斯頓的整合，我們仍然感覺非常好大約是在我們朝著正常生產率邁進的時候。

So more work to do, but no big disruptions we see as we sit here today.

還有更多工作要做，但我們今天坐在這裡並沒有看到重大干擾。

In terms of the inventory, we've got $87.5 billion worth of inventory in the company right now.

就庫存而言，我們公司目前的庫存價值為 875 億美元。

That is too much.

那太多了。

Now it's been an investment in stability, and we are committed to make that investment so that we can get the factories in the right spot.

現在這是對穩定性的投資，我們致力於進行這項投資，以便我們能夠將工廠建在正確的地點。

But there will be a point where those inventories will begin to liquidate and not only see the productivity benefit.

但總有一天，這些庫存將開始清算，而不僅僅是看到生產力的提高。

The working capital benefit will be something that we're very interested in seeing.

營運資金效益將是我們非常感興趣的。

And we will begin to lower buffer rates that we put in place deliberately as we get to more predictability.

當我們獲得更多的可預測性時，我們將開始降低我們故意設定的緩衝率。

So that is the big cash flow benefit that we're going to see over the next couple of years-ish.

這就是我們在未來幾年內將看到的巨大現金流效益。

And it's all because we've been sitting on this big investment that we look forward to having unwind with deliveries.

這一切都是因為我們一直坐擁這項巨額投資，我們期待著透過交付來放鬆。

And that's what we're focused the team on out in Seattle.

這就是我們西雅圖團隊的重點工作。

Thanks, Gavin.

謝謝，加文。

Lois, we have time for one final question.

路易斯，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gautam Khanna.

高塔姆·卡納.

I just wanted to put a finer point on when you expect to be at 38 a month in terms of deliveries on the 37 and when realistically you could get to 42.

我只是想更詳細地說明一下，就 37 月的交付量而言，您預計何時會達到每月 38 次，而實際上何時可以達到 42 次。

I know you mentioned this year, but if you could put a finer point within the year.

我知道你提到了今年，但如果你能在這一年裡提出更具體的觀點。

You know what, I'm not putting a finer point on it, both externally or internally.

你知道嗎，無論是外部還是內部，我都沒有提出更具體的觀點。

We're going to go to that rate when the KPIs say that we're going to go to that rate.

當 KPI 顯示我們將採用該比率時，我們就會採用該比率。

And we'll just see how that plays out.

我們將看看結果如何。

I mean, like I said, things look encouraging so far.

我的意思是，就像我說的，到目前為止，情況看起來令人鼓舞。

We've got a lot of work yet to do.

我們還有很多工作要做。

And we'll make those rate increases, hopefully, sometime so that -- I do want to get through the rate 38 approval and move to that next rate of 42 -- get through the approval this year and get to that 42 sometime towards the end of the year.

希望有一天我們會提高利率，這樣——我確實希望通過利率 38 的批准，並轉向下一個利率 42——今年通過批准，並在某個時候達到利率 42。

But we'll put an exact dates on it once we know and feel better about our KPIs and how the trends are indicating.

但是，一旦我們了解並更好地了解我們的 KPI 以及趨勢的表現，我們就會給出確切的日期。

That's part of why we're not providing guidance yet.

這就是我們尚未提供指導的部分原因。

I think we've got a little bit more work to do to see the system get stable before I feel like we can provide guidance to you that we have a reasonable expectation that we'll be able to meet that guidance.

我認為我們還有更多的工作要做，才能看到系統變得穩定，然後我覺得我們可以向您提供指導，我們有合理的期望，我們將能夠滿足該指導。

So more to come as we mature.

隨著我們的成熟，還會有更多的事情發生。

Things are off to a good start, but we've got a lot of work yet to do.

事情有了一個很好的開端，但我們還有很多工作要做。

That completes the Boeing Company's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

波音公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議至此結束。

Thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect.

感謝您加入，您現在可以斷開連接。