波音 (BA) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加波音公司 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的電話正在錄音。

The management discussion and slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session, are being broadcast live over the Internet.

管理層討論和幻燈片演示，以及分析師問答環節，正在互聯網上進行現場直播。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Mr. Matt Welch, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company.

目前，關於開場白和介紹，我將把電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁 Matt Welch 先生。

Mr. Welch, please go ahead.

韋爾奇先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning.

謝謝你，早上好。

Welcome to Boeing's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加波音 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。

I am Matt Welch, and with me today are Dave Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian West, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我是馬特·韋爾奇，今天和我在一起的是波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩；波音公司執行副總裁兼首席財務官布萊恩·韋斯特（Brian West）。

As a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation through our website at boeing.com.

提醒一下，您可以通過我們的網站 boeing.com 關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。

As always, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today.

與往常一樣，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務信息。

Projections, estimates and goals we include in our discussions this morning involve risks, including those described in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of the web presentation.

我們今天上午討論中的預測、估計和目標涉及風險，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和網絡演示文稿末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中描述的風險。

In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解某些非公認會計原則措施的披露和調節。

Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給 Dave Calhoun。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，馬特，大家早上好。

I hope you're staying well as we navigate through the other side of this crazy global pandemic.

我希望您在我們度過這場瘋狂的全球流行病的另一面時保持良好狀態。

We continue to work with our customers, our suppliers and our partners to stabilize our industry and chart the path to recovery.

我們將繼續與我們的客戶、供應商和合作夥伴合作，以穩定我們的行業並規劃復甦之路。

While this summer brought us new challenges with the variants, we have seen encouraging signs of increased vaccination rates, further progress on coordinated international travel policies and protocols and ongoing discussions with customers on their fleet planning.

雖然今年夏天給我們帶來了變種的新挑戰，但我們看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，包括疫苗接種率提高、協調的國際旅行政策和協議取得進一步進展，以及與客戶就車隊規劃進行的持續討論。

As expected, the recovery has been uneven.

正如預期的那樣，復甦是不平衡的。

However, it continues to gain broader momentum, giving us confidence in the resilience of our market.

然而，它繼續獲得更廣泛的動力，使我們對市場的彈性充滿信心。

Vaccines have proven safe and effective, and they're key to personal health and to reopening the global economy, reopening travel routes and businesses.

疫苗已被證明是安全有效的，它們對個人健康和重新開放全球經濟、重新開放旅行路線和企業至關重要。

Our customers, both Commercial and Defense, have implemented vaccine mandates for their employee populations.

我們的商業和國防客戶已經為其員工群體實施了疫苗接種要求。

After careful review and consideration and to ensure compliance with President Biden's executive order, we are implementing a requirement for U.S.-based employees to show proof of being fully vaccinated from COVID-19 or have an approved reasonable accommodation.

經過仔細審查和考慮並確保遵守拜登總統的行政命令，我們正在實施一項要求，要求美國員工出示已完全接種 COVID-19 疫苗或獲得批准的合理便利的證明。

As we have done since the beginning of the pandemic, we will continue to prioritize the health and the safety of our employees.

正如我們自大流行開始以來所做的那樣，我們將繼續優先考慮員工的健康和安全。

We are making important progress in transforming our business, driving stability and quality in our operations and investing for the future.

我們在業務轉型、提高運營穩定性和質量以及為未來投資方面取得了重要進展。

I'm proud of our team's continued resiliency and unwavering focus on our mission.

我為我們團隊的持續韌性和堅定不移地專注於我們的使命感到自豪。

Before I go through our business update, I'd like to formally welcome Brian West, our new CFO, who is with us here today.

在我完成我們的業務更新之前，我想正式歡迎我們的新首席財務官 Brian West，他今天與我們在一起。

In the 2 months since Brian started, he has spent countless hours at our operational sites with the finance and the broader teams, digging into issues, gaining an in-depth understanding of our business.

在 Brian 開始工作的 2 個月裡，他在我們的運營站點與財務和更廣泛的團隊一起花費了無數個小時，挖掘問題，深入了解我們的業務。

Brian is an exceptional leader and we're grateful to have him on board.

布賴恩是一位傑出的領導者，我們很高興有他加入。

With that, let's start with an update on the business in the next chart.

有了這個，讓我們從下一張圖表中的業務更新開始。

Beginning with the 737 program, we continue delivering to our customers and supporting their efforts to return their fleets to service.

從 737 計劃開始，我們將繼續為我們的客戶提供服務，並支持他們努力讓他們的機隊恢復服務。

In the third quarter, we delivered 62 737 MAX airplanes, the most we've delivered since the first quarter of 2019.

第三季度，我們交付了 62 737 架 MAX 飛機，這是自 2019 年第一季度以來我們交付的最多飛機。

We have made noteworthy progress since receiving approval from the FAA.

自獲得美國聯邦航空局的批准以來，我們取得了顯著進展。

And today, over 175 countries have approved the resumption of 737 MAX operations.

今天，超過 175 個國家/地區已批准恢復 737 MAX 的運營。

We've delivered more than 195 airplanes, including about 1/3 of the 450 airplanes originally in inventory.

我們已經交付了超過 195 架飛機，其中包括大約 1/3 的最初庫存的 450 架飛機。

We have largely placed the airplanes that required remarketing.

我們已經在很大程度上放置了需要再營銷的飛機。

Our airline customers have returned more than 200 previously grounded airplanes to revenue service.

我們的航空公司客戶已將 200 多架之前停飛的飛機恢復為收益服務。

31 airlines have returned their fleets to service and those airlines have safely flown over 206,000 commercial flights, totaling more than 500,000 flight hours.

31家航空公司已恢復機隊，這些航空公司已安全飛行超過20.6萬次商業航班，總飛行時間超過50萬小時。

Importantly, the fleet has an impressive schedule reliability rate of more than 99%.

重要的是，該船隊的計劃可靠率超過 99%，令人印象深刻。

And as domestic and regional traffic recovers, for example, intra-Europe, demand for the 737 MAX continues to improve.

隨著國內和地區交通（例如歐洲內部）的複蘇，對 737 MAX 的需求繼續改善。

In September, we saw the eighth straight month of positive net commercial airplane orders, primarily due to the 737 MAX.

9 月，我們看到商用飛機訂單連續第八個月出現正增長，這主要歸功於 737 MAX。

At the end of the quarter, we had over 3,300 aircraft in our 737 backlog, highlighting the airplane's families value proposition.

在本季度末，我們的 737 積壓訂單中有超過 3,300 架飛機，突出了飛機的家庭價值主張。

Given this demand during the third quarter, we increased our production rate to 19 airplanes per month and continue to progress toward a production rate of 31 per month in early 2022.

鑑於第三季度的需求，我們將生產速度提高到每月 19 架，並在 2022 年初繼續朝著每月 31 架的生產速度前進。

While we continue to deliver from inventory, we are balancing the need to increase the production rate to position us to support increasing demand longer term.

雖然我們繼續從庫存中交付，但我們正在平衡提高生產率的需求，以使我們能夠長期支持不斷增長的需求。

We're actively working to ensure the production system, including the supply chain, is stable prior to making decisions to further increase the production rate.

我們正在積極努力確保生產系統（包括供應鏈）在做出進一步提高生產率的決定之前保持穩定。

Raw materials, logistics and labor availability will also be key watch items for future rate increases.

原材料、物流和勞動力供應也將是未來加息的關鍵觀察項目。

As we previously communicated, the timing of remaining regulatory approvals will shape our near-term delivery plans and our production rate ramp beyond 31 per month.

正如我們之前所傳達的，剩餘監管批准的時間將影響我們的近期交付計劃，我們的生產率將超過每月 31 個。

Following the completion of the 737 MAX flight test in China during the third quarter, we continue to work toward approval by the end of the year, with a resumption of deliveries to follow in the first quarter of next year.

繼第三季度在中國完成 737 MAX 試飛後，我們將繼續努力爭取在年底前獲得批准，明年第一季度將恢復交付。

We also continue to make progress on the certification of the 737 MAX 7 and the MAX 10.

我們還在 737 MAX 7 和 MAX 10 的認證方面繼續取得進展。

We currently anticipate the first delivery of the MAX 7 in early 2022 and the first delivery of the MAX 10 in 2023.

我們目前預計 MAX 7 將於 2022 年初首次交付，MAX 10 將於 2023 年首次交付。

As always, we will follow global regulators' lead in the steps ahead on all certification matters.

與往常一樣，我們將在所有認證事宜上遵循全球監管機構的領導。

On the 787 program, we remain fully committed to our methodical approach to driving first-time quality and stability in our operations.

在 787 計劃中，我們仍然完全致力於採用有條不紊的方法來推動我們運營的首次質量和穩定性。

The issues that our engineering teams and/or our suppliers have identified and are addressing are part of this purposeful process, and we have transparently communicated with our regulators, our customers and our suppliers every step of the way.

我們的工程團隊和/或我們的供應商已經確定並正在解決的問題是這個有目的的過程的一部分，我們在每一步都與我們的監管機構、我們的客戶和我們的供應商進行了透明的溝通。

As recently shared, we have also identified quality issues with a sub-tier parts supplier.

正如最近分享的那樣，我們還發現了與次級零件供應商的質量問題。

And while our review is ongoing, there are no immediate safety of flight concerns.

雖然我們的審查正在進行中，但沒有直接的飛行安全問題。

We are in regular communication with the FAA on these issues and are committed to taking any action required to address them.

我們就這些問題與 FAA 保持定期溝通，並致力於採取任何必要的行動來解決這些問題。

As to the 787 generally, we are conducting inspections and rework, and we continue to engage in detailed discussions with the FAA regarding the required actions for resuming deliveries.

至於 787，我們正在進行檢查和返工，我們將繼續與 FAA 就恢復交付所需的行動進行詳細討論。

As we mentioned last quarter, we continue to reprioritize production resources to support the inspection and the rework, and are currently producing at a rate of approximately 2 airplanes per month.

正如我們上個季度提到的，我們繼續重新分配生產資源的優先級以支持檢查和返工，目前以每月大約 2 架飛機的速度生產。

Once deliveries resume, we expect to return to 5 per month over time.

一旦交付恢復，我們預計隨著時間的推移將恢復到每月 5 次。

Keep in mind, exact timing of deliveries and future production rates will depend upon inspections and rework, ongoing customer and supplier conversations, production stability and our activities with the FAA.

請記住，交付的確切時間和未來的生產率將取決於檢查和返工、持續的客戶和供應商對話、生產穩定性以及我們與 FAA 的活動。

Again, our regulators will make the ultimate determination, but we believe we have a clear line of sight to the steps ahead, and we are continuing to make steady progress to begin delivering airplanes to our customers.

同樣，我們的監管機構將做出最終決定，但我們相信我們對前進的步驟有清晰的視野，並且我們將繼續穩步推進，開始向我們的客戶交付飛機。

Moving to the 777 and the 777X program.

轉向 777 和 777X 計劃。

The combined production rate is 2 per month.

綜合生產率為每月 2 次。

Given continued strength in freighter demand, we have coordinated with our supply chain and are increasing 777 freighter production capacity in the near term.

鑑於貨機需求持續強勁，我們已與供應鏈協調，並在短期內增加 777 貨機的產能。

We now expect 2022 777 deliveries to be relatively in line with 2021.

我們現在預計 2022 777 的交付量將與 2021 年相對一致。

On the 777X program, we continue to subject the airplane to a comprehensive test program to demonstrate its safety, its performance and reliability while working through our rigorous development process to ensure we meet all applicable requirements.

在 777X 計劃中，我們繼續對飛機進行全面測試，以展示其安全性、性能和可靠性，同時通過我們嚴格的開發流程確保我們滿足所有適用的要求。

We continue to engage with the FAA and global regulators throughout this process and like any development program, we are learning along the way and incorporating those learnings into our plans.

在整個過程中，我們將繼續與 FAA 和全球監管機構合作，與任何開發計劃一樣，我們一直在學習，並將這些學習成果納入我們的計劃。

As we progress in our certification work, we continue to conduct Boeing flight tests and began engine performance flight testing earlier this month.

隨著我們認證工作的進展，我們繼續進行波音飛行測試，並在本月初開始進行發動機性能飛行測試。

The airplane is performing well and in line with our customer commitments based on the data that we've collected to date.

根據我們迄今為止收集的數據，這架飛機表現良好，符合我們對客戶的承諾。

We will validate these results, and we will continue to work with the FAA to ensure we meet their requirements prior to beginning the certification flight test.

我們將驗證這些結果，我們將繼續與 FAA 合作，以確保在開始認證飛行測試之前滿足他們的要求。

We still expect that we will deliver the first 777X in late 2023.

我們仍然預計我們將在 2023 年底交付第一架 777X。

Given the continued robust freighter demand and the compelling economics of the 777X, we are currently evaluating the timing of launching a freighter version of our 777X airplane.

鑑於持續強勁的貨機需求和 777X 令人信服的經濟性，我們目前正在評估推出 777X 飛機貨機版本的時機。

We will keep you updated as we progress in this evaluation.

隨著我們在此評估中的進展，我們會及時通知您。

In addition, for the 737 MAX 7, the MAX 10 and the 777X, we are investing in our future, laying the foundation for our next commercial airplane development program.

此外，對於 737 MAX 7、MAX 10 和 777X，我們正在投資於我們的未來，為我們的下一個商用飛機開發計劃奠定基礎。

This quarter, we stood up an integrated product team to bring together a digital environment where the next commercial new airplane and production system can be designed together.

本季度，我們組建了一個集成的產品團隊，將一個數字環境整合在一起，可以一起設計下一個商用新飛機和生產系統。

While we have not launched a new airplane, this is an important step in our digitization journey and our development journey to evaluate how we holistically design, build, test, certify and support the airplane and production system.

雖然我們還沒有推出新飛機，但這是我們數字化之旅和開發之旅的重要一步，以評估我們如何從整體上設計、建造、測試、認證和支持飛機和生產系統。

It will build on the invaluable experience of our recent Defense programs.

它將建立在我們最近的國防計劃的寶貴經驗之上。

Meanwhile, we continue to execute for our customers across our business.

同時，我們繼續為我們的客戶執行我們的業務。

Let me highlight a few key milestones.

讓我強調幾個關鍵的里程碑。

Our Defense, Space & Security team made progress on key programs.

我們的國防、空間和安全團隊在關鍵項目上取得了進展。

For example, our MQ-25 unmanned test asset completed aerial refueling of a F-35C fighter jet and an E-2D command and control aircraft.

例如，我們的 MQ-25 無人測試資產完成了 F-35C 戰鬥機和 E-2D 指揮控制飛機的空中加油。

We also delivered 37 aircraft in the quarter, including the first CH-47F Chinook to the Royal Australian Army.

我們還在本季度交付了 37 架飛機，其中包括第一架向澳大利亞皇家陸軍交付的 CH-47F Chinook。

As was recently shared, the NASA and Boeing teams have identified the most probable cause of the valve malfunction on our commercial cruise Starliner, and we are working through corrective and preventative actions.

正如最近分享的那樣，NASA 和波音團隊已經確定了我們的商業巡航 Starliner 閥門故障的最可能原因，我們正在採取糾正和預防措施。

We are currently working toward opportunities for the second orbital flight test to launch in 2022, pending hardware readiness to rocket manifest and space station availability.

我們目前正在努力爭取在 2022 年啟動第二次軌道飛行試驗的機會，等待火箭清單和空間站可用性的硬件準備就緒。

As we have demonstrated, we will continue to prioritize the safety of our employees, crew members and spacecraft as we progress.

正如我們已經證明的那樣，隨著我們的進步，我們將繼續優先考慮員工、機組人員和航天器的安全。

In our Global Services business, our team continued to perform and demonstrate sustained recovery from the impacts of COVID-19.

在我們的全球服務業務中，我們的團隊繼續表現並展示了從 COVID-19 的影響中持續恢復。

As cargo demand increases, we announced plans to create additional capacity for the 767-300 Boeing converted freighter.

隨著貨運需求的增加，我們宣布了為波音 767-300 改裝貨機增加運力的計劃。

In addition to these program accomplishments, we continue to make progress on our commitment to drive the future of sustainable aviation.

除了這些計劃成就之外，我們在推動可持續航空未來的承諾方面繼續取得進展。

Boeing recently joined a virtual White House event on sustainable aviation, reiterating our commitment to have our commercial airplanes capable of running on 100% sustainable aviation fuels by 2030 and our partnership with SkyNRG to expand the global supply of sustainable aviation fuel.

波音公司最近參加了一場關於可持續航空的虛擬白宮活動，重申我們承諾到 2030 年讓我們的商用飛機能夠使用 100% 可持續航空燃料運行，以及我們與 SkyNRG 的合作，以擴大可持續航空燃料的全球供應。

We also hosted a 2-day Boeing Innovation Forum in Glasgow, bringing together partners in the region, customers, aviation experts and STEM students to accelerate efforts to ensure a safe and sustainable aerospace future.

我們還在格拉斯哥舉辦了為期 2 天的波音創新論壇，匯集了該地區的合作夥伴、客戶、航空專家和 STEM 學生，以加快努力確保安全和可持續的航空航天未來。

We were also excited to participate in the IATA Annual General Meeting to discuss our path toward a more sustainable future and how we can support the aviation sector's commitment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

我們也很高興參加國際航協年度大會，討論我們邁向更可持續未來的道路，以及我們如何支持航空業到 2050 年實現淨零碳排放的承諾。

In fact, just yesterday, our Chief Technology Officer, along with the CTOs from 6 other leading aerospace manufacturing companies, reaffirmed our commitment to reaching this industry-wide target.

事實上，就在昨天，我們的首席技術官與其他 6 家領先的航空航天製造公司的 CTO 重申了我們實現這一全行業目標的承諾。

Now let's turn to the next slide to discuss the industry environment.

現在讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片來討論行業環境。

Last month, we released our 2021 Boeing market outlook, which forecasts a total market value of $9 trillion over the next decade.

上個月，我們發布了 2021 年波音市場展望，預計未來十年總市值將達到 9 萬億美元。

This is up from $8.5 trillion a year ago and from $8.7 trillion in the prepandemic 2019 forecast, reflecting the market's continued recovery.

這高於一年前的 8.5 萬億美元和 2019 年大流行前預測的 8.7 萬億美元，反映了市場的持續復甦。

The forecast closely aligns to what we laid out last year.

該預測與我們去年的預測非常吻合。

Our government services, defense and space markets remain significant and relatively stable.

我們的政府服務、國防和太空市場仍然重要且相對穩定。

While increased government spending on COVID-19 response is adding pressure to defense budgets in some countries, others are increasing spending on their security.

雖然政府在應對 COVID-19 方面的支出增加給一些國家的國防預算增加了壓力，但其他國家的安全支出也在增加。

Overall, the global defense market remains strong and enduring with all of our major programs.

總體而言，全球國防市場仍然強勁且經久不衰，我們所有的主要項目都在其中。

We remain focused on delivering the highest quality, innovative, capable and affordable platforms to the warfighter and maintaining the health of our supplier base.

我們仍然專注於為作戰人員提供最高質量、創新、功能強大且價格合理的平台，並維護我們供應商群的健康。

The diversity of our portfolio creates new opportunities and continues to help provide critical stability for us as we move forward.

我們產品組合的多樣性創造了新的機會，並在我們前進的過程中繼續為我們提供關鍵的穩定性。

We continue to focus on our customers' needs, expanding capabilities on our trusted platforms, investing in next-generation technologies like autonomy and building on our foundation in model-based engineering to deliver and intelligently support key franchise programs like the T-7A and the MQ-25.

我們繼續關注客戶的需求，擴展我們值得信賴的平台的能力，投資於自主性等下一代技術，並在基於模型的工程基礎上構建，以交付和智能支持關鍵特許經營計劃，如 T-7A 和MQ-25。

We see strong continued bipartisan support for U.S. national security, including strategic investments in Boeing products and services as Congress works through its annual budget and authorization process for fiscal year 2022.

我們看到兩黨對美國國家安全的持續支持，包括在國會通過其 2022 財年的年度預算和授權程序時對波音產品和服務的戰略投資。

The F/A-18 and the Chinook Block II remain critical capabilities for the warfighter both domestically and for non-U.

F/A-18 和 Chinook Block II 仍然是國內和非美國作戰人員的關鍵能力。

S. customers.

S. 客戶。

We will continue to work with the administration and with Congress to ensure the necessary support for these key programs is in place.

我們將繼續與政府和國會合作，確保為這些關鍵項目提供必要的支持。

The commercial market is shaping up largely as we expected.

商業市場的形成很大程度上符合我們的預期。

While near-term pressure due to COVID-19 continues, the recovery is broadening and the key long-term fundamentals remain strong.

儘管 COVID-19 帶來的近期壓力持續存在，但復甦正在擴大，關鍵的長期基本面依然強勁。

We've seen positive momentum in some markets.

我們在一些市場看到了積極的勢頭。

However, the recovery continues to be uneven.

然而，復甦仍然不平衡。

In the third quarter, we saw global departures increase slightly to an average of 67% of 2019 levels, up from 59% the previous quarter.

在第三季度，我們看到全球出發人數從上一季度的 59% 略微上升至 2019 年平均水平的 67%。

Similar to what we saw in the first half of the year, domestic traffic is leading the recovery.

與我們在上半年看到的情況類似，國內流量正在引領復甦。

However, traffic took a slight step back in the late summer due to the Delta variant and increased travel restrictions, resulting in global August domestic traffic of approximately 30% below 2019 levels.

然而，由於達美的變體和旅行限制的增加，交通在夏末略有回落，導致全球 8 月國內交通比 2019 年水平低約 30%。

Since then, it has shown signs of improvement, most notably in the domestic China market.

從那以後，它出現了改善的跡象，尤其是在中國國內市場。

The U.S. domestic market continues to be a bright spot in the recovery with TSA screenings resuming an upward weekly trend since mid-September and peak travel days are reaching 80% to 85% of 2019 volumes.

美國國內市場繼續成為複甦的亮點，自 9 月中旬以來，TSA 篩查恢復了每週上升的趨勢，高峰旅行天數達到 2019 年的 80% 至 85%。

We are also seeing the recovery accelerate in more parts of the world which reduced travel restrictions and coordinated protocols.

我們還看到世界上更多地區的複蘇加速，這減少了旅行限制和協調協議。

Japan's domestic traffic is accelerating after the country recently dropped its COVID state of emergency, and European airlines have seen large booking spikes following the U.S. decision to open to vaccinated foreign travelers in November.

在該國最近取消其 COVID 緊急狀態後，日本的國內交通正在加速增長，在美國決定於 11 月向已接種疫苗的外國旅客開放後，歐洲航空公司的預訂量大幅增加。

Passenger traffic in other parts of the world, particularly Southeast Asia, remained significantly lower due to continued travel restriction, uncertainty and case rates.

由於持續的旅行限制、不確定性和病例率，世界其他地區，特別是東南亞的客運量仍顯著下降。

Even there, however, there is increasing momentum for air travel as vaccination rates climb.

然而，即使在那裡，隨著疫苗接種率的攀升，航空旅行的勢頭也越來越大。

International operations are starting to see incremental improvement, with August traffic 69% below 2019, which was an improvement from June and July.

國際業務開始出現逐步改善，8 月的客流量比 2019 年低 69%，比 6 月和 7 月有所改善。

And we're seeing promising signs of entry protocols loosening across the transatlantic corridor.

而且我們看到跨大西洋走廊的入境協議鬆動的有希望的跡象。

Despite this progress, international traffic is still a long way from full recovery.

儘管取得了這些進展，但國際交通距離全面恢復還有很長的路要走。

Limited coordination on travel protocols are still significantly hindering traffic in the international segment.

旅行協議方面的有限協調仍然嚴重阻礙了國際部分的交通。

Yet the active fleet is now approximately 85% of its previous size, with single-aisle activity levels slightly above twin-aisle.

然而，現役車隊現在的規模約為之前的 85%，單通道活動水平略高於雙通道。

With utilization rates and load factors still below historic levels, airlines are flying around 60% of their normal global capacity.

由於利用率和載客率仍低於歷史水平，航空公司的飛行量約為其正常全球運力的 60%。

Recent changes to government policies could accelerate this to 70% by year-end.

最近政府政策的變化可能會在年底將這一比例加速至 70%。

However, we have seen continued variability in capacity due to supply chain and logistics challenges our customers are facing.

然而，由於我們的客戶面臨的供應鍊和物流挑戰，我們看到產能持續變化。

As the recovery continues to expand, airlines are shifting their focus to medium-term fleet planning.

隨著復甦繼續擴大，航空公司正在將重點轉移到中期機隊規劃上。

As part of this assessment, airlines have retired or announced plans to retire around 1,500 airplanes since the onset of the pandemic.

作為此次評估的一部分，自疫情爆發以來，航空公司已退役或宣布退役約 1,500 架飛機的計劃。

We anticipate this trend will continue as our customers modernize their fleets to reduce carbon emissions and increase operational efficiency.

我們預計，隨著我們的客戶對其車隊進行現代化改造，以減少碳排放並提高運營效率，這一趨勢將繼續下去。

With oil prices today approximately 30% higher than at the end of 2019, operating efficiency is top of mind for most of our customers.

由於今天的油價比 2019 年底高出約 30%，運營效率是我們大多數客戶的首要考慮因素。

The new airplanes we deliver will be as much as 25% to 40% more fuel efficient with commensurate reductions in emissions compared to the airplanes they replaced.

我們交付的新飛機與它們所取代的飛機相比，燃油效率將提高 25% 至 40%，排放量也相應減少。

The freighter market remains robust, with cargo traffic 8% higher year-to-date through August compared to 2019.

貨運市場依然強勁，與 2019 年相比，今年截至 8 月的貨運量增長了 8%。

With limited belly cargo capacity on passenger airlines, more dedicated freighters are being utilized to transport cargo.

由於客運航空公司的腹部貨運能力有限，更多的專用貨機被用於運輸貨物。

This is resulting in healthy demand for our freighter offerings, with 24 additional freighter airplanes ordered in the quarter and strong demand for Boeing converted freighters.

這導致對我們的貨機產品的健康需求，本季度額外訂購了 24 架貨機，對波音改裝貨機的需求強勁。

In fact, our converted and new freighter orders through the first 9 months of this year have already surpassed our highest annual freighter tally in history.

事實上，我們今年前 9 個月的改裝和新貨機訂單已經超過了我們歷史上最高的年度貨機總數。

As we look to the medium and long term, we see our original forecast still holds.

展望中長期，我們看到我們最初的預測仍然成立。

We continue to expect passenger traffic to return to 2019 levels in '23 to '24, and then a few years beyond that to return to long-term growth trends.

我們繼續預計客運量將在 23 至 24 年恢復到 2019 年的水平，然後再過幾年恢復長期增長趨勢。

We still see recovery in 3 phases.

我們仍然看到三個階段的複蘇。

First domestic, then regional markets such as intra-Asia, intra-Europe and intra-Americas flights, and finally, long-haul international routes.

首先是國內市場，然後是亞洲內部、歐洲內部和美洲內部航班等區域市場，最後是長途國際航線。

We've seen this phased recovery translate into demand with strong 737 MAX orders this year, which mainly support domestic markets.

我們已經看到這種階段性的複蘇轉化為今年強勁的 737 MAX 訂單需求，這主要支持國內市場。

We anticipate demand for widebody aircraft to take longer in line with the international traffic recovery.

我們預計，隨著國際交通復甦，對寬體飛機的需求將需要更長的時間。

Our 10-year commercial airplane market outlook is largely unchanged from what we assumed a year ago, reflecting the impacts of the global pandemic as well as the ongoing market recovery.

我們的 10 年商用飛機市場前景與一年前的假設基本沒有變化，反映出全球大流行的影響以及持續的市場復甦。

From now until 2030, we forecast demand for over 14,000 single-aisle airplanes such as the 737 MAX, which equates to roughly 115 to 130 airplanes per month.

從現在到 2030 年，我們預測對 737 MAX 等單通道飛機的需求將超過 14,000 架，這相當於每月大約 115 至 130 架飛機。

From a 20-year perspective, we still see the impact of COVID, but to a lesser extent, as traffic reverts to long-term trends.

從 20 年的角度來看，我們仍然可以看到 COVID 的影響，但程度較小，因為流量會恢復到長期趨勢。

Through 2040, we project demand for about 43,500 new airplanes, an increase of about 500 planes over last year's forecast.

到 2040 年，我們預計新飛機需求量約為 43,500 架，比去年的預測增加約 500 架。

And as air travel grows, we're committed to reaching sustainability goals and future guidelines through government and industry partnerships and a combination of technology, policy and operational advances.

隨著航空旅行的發展，我們致力於通過政府和行業夥伴關係以及技術、政策和運營進步的結合來實現可持續發展目標和未來指導方針。

And a significant area of growth, projected demand has increased for dedicated freighters, including new and converted models.

在一個重要的增長領域，預計對專用貨機的需求增加，包括新的和改裝的模型。

With sustained demand for air cargo tied to expanding e-commerce and air freight's speed and reliability, we project the global freighter fleet in 2040 will be 70% larger than the prepandemic fleet.

由於對航空貨運的持續需求與電子商務的擴大以及航空貨運的速度和可靠性相關，我們預計到 2040 年，全球貨運機隊將比疫情前的機隊增加 70%。

On the global trade front, we continue to support and monitor U.S.-China trade relations, given the importance of the Chinese market to our economy and our industry's recovery as well as our near-term delivery profile and future orders, all of which influence future production rates.

在全球貿易方面，鑑於中國市場對我們的經濟和行業復甦的重要性，以及我們的近期交付情況和未來訂單，我們將繼續支持和監控美中貿易關係，所有這些都會影響未來生產率。

We remain in active discussions with our Chinese customers on their fleet planning needs and continue to urge leaders in both countries to resolve trade differences by reiterating the mutual economic benefits of a strong and prosperous aerospace industry.

我們繼續與中國客戶就他們的機隊規劃需求進行積極討論，並繼續敦促兩國領導人通過重申強大和繁榮的航空航天業的共同經濟利益來解決貿易分歧。

Ultimately, America's leadership in aerospace as well as the health and stability of millions of commercial aerospace jobs rely on free and fair trade, and we are confident our leaders understand the importance of this area, not just for our business but for the overall health of our economy and competitiveness.

歸根結底，美國在航空航天領域的領導地位以及數百萬商業航空航天工作的健康和穩定都依賴於自由和公平的貿易，我們相信我們的領導人理解這一領域的重要性，不僅對我們的業務，而且對我們的整體健康我們的經濟和競爭力。

Turning to the commercial services market.

轉向商業服務市場。

We saw demand improve again in the third quarter as we supported airlines during their peak summer season.

我們看到第三季度的需求再次改善，因為我們在夏季旺季支持航空公司。

We expect this trend to continue near term, slightly ahead of our expectations.

我們預計這一趨勢將在短期內持續，略高於我們的預期。

That said, we still anticipate a multiyear recovery that may be uneven.

話雖如此，我們仍然預計可能會出現不均衡的多年復蘇。

Liquidity is improving across the industry, and managing liquidity remains critical for the aerospace industry's bridge to full recovery.

整個行業的流動性正在改善，管理流動性對於航空航天業全面復甦的橋樑仍然至關重要。

As we highlighted previously, product differentiation and versatility will be key as airlines adapt to evolving market realities.

正如我們之前強調的那樣，隨著航空公司適應不斷變化的市場現實，產品差異化和多功能性將是關鍵。

In fact, the 787 has been the most utilized widebody airplane during the pandemic and demand for the MAX continues to grow.

事實上，787 一直是大流行期間使用最多的寬體飛機，對 MAX 的需求持續增長。

So far this year, we have sold more than 550 737s across each of the models from Dash 7 to Dash 10, reflecting the value of versatility and commonality.

今年到目前為止，我們已售出超過 550 架 737，涵蓋從 Dash 7 到 Dash 10 的每個型號，體現了多功能性和通用性的價值。

I'm confident our product line is well positioned, and we're focused on executing to meet that customer demand.

我相信我們的產品線定位良好，我們專注於執行以滿足客戶需求。

Despite the continued challenges our industry is facing due to COVID-19, passenger traffic is increasing.

儘管由於 COVID-19，我們的行業面臨著持續的挑戰，但客運量正在增加。

And more broadly, we're seeing incrementally positive indicators for economic growth.

更廣泛地說，我們看到經濟增長的積極指標越來越多。

With economic activity picking up, labor availability within our supply chain will be the critical watch item.

隨著經濟活動的回升，我們供應鏈中的勞動力可用性將成為關鍵的觀察項目。

As we position for a robust recovery, we're focused on delivering for our customers and capturing the opportunities ahead.

隨著我們為強勁復甦做好準備，我們專注於為客戶提供服務並抓住未來的機會。

We're maintaining and, in some cases, expanding key investments in strategic processes, technologies and capabilities that will define our future.

我們正在維護並在某些情況下擴大對定義我們未來的戰略流程、技術和能力的關鍵投資。

And whether we're investing in manufacturing technology, digital engineering, technology advances, autonomous solutions, supply chain capability or platform designs, sustainability will be a key factor in every decision.

無論我們是投資於製造技術、數字工程、技術進步、自主解決方案、供應鏈能力還是平台設計，可持續性都將是每個決策的關鍵因素。

We're continuing our transformational efforts to create long-lasting value, which will improve our performance, help us generate positive cash flow and create a foundation to enable us to return to healthy margins.

我們正在繼續我們的轉型努力，以創造持久的價值，這將改善我們的業績，幫助我們產生正現金流，並為使我們能夠恢復健康的利潤率奠定基礎。

While we do this, we remain committed to safety, quality and transparency, and I'm confident in our future.

在我們這樣做的同時，我們仍然致力於安全、質量和透明度，我對我們的未來充滿信心。

With that, let me turn it over to Brian.

有了這個，讓我把它交給布賴恩。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家早上好。

In the short time I've been here, the priorities couldn't be more clear: Deliver for our customers, drive the highest levels of safety, quality and stability in all we do, innovate for the future and generate positive, sustainable free cash flow.

在我來這裡的短短時間裡，優先事項再清楚不過了：為我們的客戶提供服務，在我們所做的一切中推動最高水平的安全、質量和穩定性，為未來創新並產生積極、可持續的自由現金流動。

While we have our share of challenges, I'm impressed with the team and confident in our path forward.

雖然我們面臨著共同的挑戰，但我對團隊印象深刻，並對我們前進的道路充滿信心。

Let's turn to Slide 4, please.

請轉到幻燈片 4。

Third quarter revenue increased to $15.3 billion, primarily due to higher commercial deliveries and commercial services volume.

第三季度收入增至 153 億美元，主要是由於商業交付和商業服務量增加。

We recorded a $0.60 loss per share in the quarter primarily driven by higher commercial volume, partially offset by lower tax benefits.

我們在本季度錄得每股虧損 0.60 美元，主要是由於商業量增加，部分被較低的稅收優惠所抵消。

Third quarter 2021 was also impacted by 787 abnormal costs and the Commercial Crew Starliner charge.

2021 年第三季度還受到 787 次異常成本和 Commercial Crew Starliner 費用的影響。

Now let's move to Commercial Airplanes on Slide 5. Revenue was $4.5 billion, reflecting higher 737 deliveries, partially offset by lower 787 deliveries.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 上的商用飛機。收入為 45 億美元，反映出 737 交付量增加，部分被 787 交付量減少所抵消。

Although Commercial Airplanes' operating margin continue to be under pressure, it improved in the quarter due to higher commercial airplane deliveries and the BCA backlog is currently valued at $290 billion.

儘管商用飛機的營業利潤率繼續承壓，但由於商用飛機交付量增加和 BCA 積壓目前價值 2900 億美元，該季度有所改善。

Moving to the 737 MAX.

轉向 737 MAX。

We delivered 62 airplanes in the quarter.

我們在本季度交付了 62 架飛機。

We currently have approximately 370 MAX airplanes built and stored in inventory, including those that we have successfully remarketed.

我們目前有大約 370 架 MAX 飛機製造並儲存在庫存中，包括那些我們成功再營銷的飛機。

We know where the vast majority of the airplanes are going given the demand, and we anticipate delivering most of these airplanes by the end of 2023.

鑑於需求，我們知道絕大多數飛機的去向，我們預計到 2023 年底交付大部分飛機。

This assumes we resume delivery to our customers in China during the first quarter of 2022.

這假設我們在 2022 年第一季度恢復向中國客戶的交付。

This delivery timing and the production rate ramp profile remains dynamic, given the market environment, customer discussions, regulatory approvals and supply chain stability.

考慮到市場環境、客戶討論、監管批准和供應鏈穩定性，這種交付時間和生產率斜坡曲線保持動態。

There is no material change to our assumptions for the 737 abnormal costs or our assessment of the liability for estimated 737 MAX potential concessions and other considerations to customers.

我們對 737 異常成本的假設或我們對估計的 737 MAX 潛在讓步和對客戶的其他考慮的責任的評估沒有重大變化。

Turning to the 787.

轉向787。

We did not deliver any 787s in the third quarter while we continue our reviews and work with the FAA, as Dave mentioned.

正如 Dave 所說，在我們繼續審查並與 FAA 合作時，我們在第三季度沒有交付任何 787。

In line with our accounting practices, we recorded $183 million of abnormal costs in the third quarter due to the low rate of 787 production as well as inspection and rework costs.

根據我們的會計慣例，由於 787 的低生產率以及檢查和返工成本，我們在第三季度記錄了 1.83 億美元的異常成本。

These costs will continue in future period while we complete the rework, and we remain at an abnormally low production rate.

在我們完成返工期間，這些成本將在未來一段時間內繼續存在，並且我們仍處於異常低的生產率。

We currently anticipate total 787 abnormal costs to be approximately $1 billion.

我們目前預計總共 787 項異常成本約為 10 億美元。

Our latest assessment of the financial impact of these abnormal costs and the estimated impacts of delayed deliveries to customers has been included in our third quarter closing position.

我們對這些異常成本的財務影響以及延遲交付給客戶的估計影響的最新評估已包含在我們第三季度的收盤頭寸中。

The 787 program margin remains near breakeven.

787 計劃的利潤率仍接近盈虧平衡。

We still expect overall unit margins to hold up relatively well, and we're confident in the demand and the health of the 787 program over the long term.

我們仍然預計整體單位利潤率將保持相對較好，並且我們對 787 計劃的長期需求和健康狀況充滿信心。

As we ended the third quarter, we have approximately 105 787s in inventory.

截至第三季度結束時，我們的庫存約為 105 787。

Timing of deliveries will be dependent upon completing necessary inspections and rework, ongoing fleet planning conversations with our customers and closing out our activities with the FAA.

交付時間將取決於完成必要的檢查和返工、與客戶進行的機隊規劃對話以及結束我們與 FAA 的活動。

While the commercial recovery will take time, we remain focused on driving stability on the 787 program and across the business.

雖然商業復甦需要時間，但我們仍然專注於推動 787 計劃和整個業務的穩定性。

As we bridge to the recovery, we expect improvements in Commercial Airplanes' financial performance due to increasing deliveries and continued efforts by the BCA team to transform for the future.

隨著我們邁向復甦，我們預計由於交付量的增加和 BCA 團隊為未來轉型的持續努力，商用飛機的財務業績將有所改善。

Let's now move to Defense, Space & Security on Slide 6. Third quarter revenue decreased slightly to $6.6 billion, and operating margin was 6.6%, primarily due to a $185 million earnings charge on our Commercial Crew Starliner program driven by the second uncrewed orbital flight test now anticipated in 2022 and the latest assessment of remaining work.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 6 上的國防、空間和安全。第三季度收入小幅下降至 66 億美元，營業利潤率為 6.6%，主要是由於第二次無人駕駛軌道飛行推動我們的 Commercial Crew Starliner 計劃產生 1.85 億美元的收益費用現在預計在 2022 年進行測試，並對剩餘工作進行最新評估。

We received $6 billion in orders during the quarter, including an award for 4 Chinook Block II helicopters to the U.S. Army and a JDAM contract for the U.S. Air Force.

我們在本季度收到了 60 億美元的訂單，其中包括授予美國陸軍 4 架 Chinook Block II 直升機的訂單和授予美國空軍的 JDAM 合同。

We also received the award from Germany for 5 P-8A aircraft.

我們還獲得了德國頒發的 5 架 P-8A 飛機的獎項。

The BDS backlog is currently valued at $58 billion.

BDS 的積壓工作目前價值 580 億美元。

Let's now turn to Global Services on Slide 7. In the third quarter, Global Services revenue increased to $4.2 billion, and operating margin grew to 15.3%, driven by higher commercial services as the market recovers from the impacts of COVID-19.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 7 上的全球服務。在第三季度，全球服務收入增至 42 億美元，營業利潤率增長至 15.3%，這得益於隨著市場從 COVID-19 的影響中恢復過來，商業服務的增長。

Operating margin was also favorably impacted by lower severance costs and mix of products and services.

營業利潤率也受到較低的遣散費以及產品和服務組合的有利影響。

During the quarter, BGS won key contracts worth approximately $4 billion, including 12 additional 737-800 Boeing converted freighters for BBAM and an award for performance-based logistics support of the global C-17 fleet.

本季度，BGS 贏得了價值約 40 億美元的關鍵合同，其中包括為 BBAM 增購 12 架波音 737-800 改裝貨機，以及為全球 C-17 機隊提供基於績效的物流支持。

Total backlog remains at $19 billion.

總積壓仍為 190 億美元。

We continue to see incremental improvement in commercial services during the third quarter, and we expect the quarterly revenue trend to improve as we support increasing airline flight operations.

我們繼續看到第三季度商業服務的逐步改善，我們預計季度收入趨勢將改善，因為我們支持增加航空公司航班運營。

Looking ahead, we expect the continued commercial market recovery to drive commercial services to increase as a percentage of total BGS revenue.

展望未來，我們預計商業市場的持續復甦將推動商業服務佔 BGS 總收入的百分比增加。

Let's now turn to cash flow on Slide 8. Operating cash flow for the quarter was negative $0.3 billion, reflecting higher commercial deliveries, higher order receipts, reduced expenditures on lower widebody production rates and importantly, benefits from our business transformation efforts.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 8 上的現金流。本季度的運營現金流為負 3 億美元，這反映了更高的商業交付量、更高的訂單收入、降低了寬體機身生產率的支出減少，以及重要的是，得益於我們的業務轉型努力。

Operating cash flow was favorably impacted by a $1.3 billion income tax refund.

營業現金流受到 13 億美元所得稅退稅的有利影響。

While we continue to see a cash flow benefit from order activity, and we saw some advanced payment timing benefit in the third quarter, we still expect advanced payment burn down to be a headwind through next year.

雖然我們繼續看到訂單活動帶來的現金流收益，並且我們在第三季度看到了一些提前支付時間的好處，但我們仍然預計提前支付會在明年成為不利因素。

Let's move to Slide 9 and discuss our liquidity position.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 並討論我們的流動性狀況。

We ended the third quarter with solid liquidity, including $20 billion of cash and marketable securities on our balance sheet.

我們在第三季度結束時擁有穩定的流動性，包括資產負債表上的 200 億美元現金和有價證券。

We have access to a total of $14.7 billion across our bank credit facilities, which remain undrawn.

我們的銀行信貸額度總計 147 億美元，尚未提取。

Our debt balance decreased by $1.2 billion from last quarter to $62.4 billion, driven by the paydown of bond maturities.

在債券到期償還的推動下，我們的債務餘額比上一季度減少了 12 億美元至 624 億美元。

As we mentioned last quarter, we expect to have lower total debt at the end of the year due to the paydown of maturing bonds and early paydown of the remaining $4 billion delayed draw term loan.

正如我們上個季度提到的，由於到期債券的償還和剩餘的 40 億美元延遲提取定期貸款的提前償還，我們預計年底總債務將減少。

Given continued uncertainties in our environment, we are vigilantly managing our cash.

鑑於我們的環境持續存在不確定性，我們正在謹慎地管理我們的現金。

We've seen our cash balance begin to stabilize due to prudent actions taken across the business and increasing commercial deliveries.

我們已經看到我們的現金餘額開始穩定由於整個業務採取的審慎行動和增加的商業交付。

Therefore, we believe we currently have sufficient liquidity.

因此，我們認為我們目前有足夠的流動性。

We remain committed to reducing debt levels and actively managing the balance sheet.

我們仍然致力於降低債務水平並積極管理資產負債表。

Our investment-grade credit rating is very important to us, and we will consider all aspects of our capital structure to strengthen our balance sheet.

我們的投資級信用評級對我們非常重要，我們將考慮資本結構的各個方面以加強我們的資產負債表。

Cash flow expectations are largely unchanged from what we shared last quarter.

現金流預期與我們上個季度分享的基本沒有變化。

We still expect full year 2021 to be a use of cash and turn cash flow positive in 2022.

我們仍然預計 2021 年全年將使用現金，並在 2022 年將現金流轉為正數。

As always, cash flow may vary quarter-over-quarter due to timing of deliveries as well as receipts and expenditures, including the potential of further cash tax benefits and MAX customer settlement payments.

與往常一樣，由於交付時間以及收支（包括進一步的現金稅收優惠和最大客戶結算付款的可能性），現金流可能會因季度而異。

The key driver of cash flow in 2022 compared to 2021 is higher 737 and 787 delivery volume.

與 2021 年相比，2022 年現金流的主要驅動因素是 737 和 787 的交付量增加。

The significant working capital benefit of delivering airplanes from inventory will have some offset from the reduction to advances and progress payments balance.

從庫存中交付飛機的顯著營運資金收益將在一定程度上抵消預付款和進度付款餘額的減少。

As we previously shared, our advances balance largely reflects delivery plans from before the pandemic and MAX production pause.

正如我們之前所分享的，我們的預付款餘額在很大程度上反映了大流行和 MAX 生產暫停之前的交付計劃。

While we anticipate a meaningful burn down next year, we expect the balance will normalize by the end of 2022.

雖然我們預計明年會出現有意義的燒毀，但我們預計餘額將在 2022 年底恢復正常。

Also keep in mind, there will be an impact to cash flow in 2022 for compensation to customers for delivery delays and some headwind from the strong 2021 order book, which helped fill the near-term skyline and improved cash flow in this calendar year.

另請記住，2022 年的現金流將受到影響，以補償客戶的交貨延遲和來自 2021 年強勁訂單的一些不利因素，這有助於填補近期的天際線並改善本日曆年的現金流。

As we bridge to sustainable free cash flow generation, we continue to proactively manage our liquidity and look to strengthen our balance sheet.

隨著我們通往可持續的自由現金流生成，我們將繼續積極管理我們的流動性並尋求加強我們的資產負債表。

In closing, while our business environment is dynamic, we're confident in the future.

最後，雖然我們的商業環境充滿活力，但我們對未來充滿信心。

The key enablers for our business and our financial performance for the remainder of this year and into 2022 include vaccine distribution and travel protocols, which will ultimately facilitate the commercial market recovery; remaining 737 MAX regulatory approvals; U.S.-China trade relations; and resumption of 787 deliveries.

今年剩餘時間和 2022 年我們的業務和財務業績的關鍵推動因素包括疫苗分發和旅行協議，這最終將促進商業市場的複蘇；剩餘的 737 MAX 監管批准；美中貿易關係；並恢復 787 次交付。

Our team continues to closely examine all aspects of our business, simplify and streamline our work and make long-lasting change.

我們的團隊將繼續仔細檢查我們業務的各個方面，簡化和精簡我們的工作，並做出持久的改變。

Above all else, we'll stay focused on safety, quality, stability, innovation while generating sustainable free cash flow.

最重要的是，我們將繼續專注於安全、質量、穩定性、創新，同時產生可持續的自由現金流。

With that, I'll turn it back to Dave for closing comments.

有了這個，我會把它轉回戴夫來結束評論。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布賴恩。

We're making important progress.

我們正在取得重要進展。

We're taking the right actions to drive stability, to drive safety and quality in everything that we do.

我們正在採取正確的行動來推動穩定性，推動我們所做的一切的安全和質量。

And while the path can be dynamic, I'm confident in our recovery and in our long-term growth.

雖然這條道路可能是動態的，但我對我們的複蘇和我們的長期增長充滿信心。

I'll close by thanking our teammates.

最後我要感謝我們的隊友。

Your resilience, your passion and your commitment continues to impress.

你的韌性、激情和承諾繼續給人留下深刻印象。

These are challenging times, and you continue to bring your best to Boeing each and every day.

這是充滿挑戰的時代，您每天都將繼續為波音公司提供最好的服務。

As we look to the future, we're investing in our people and our teams to be sure Boeing remains a unique place to build your career and contribute to our important mission.

展望未來，我們正在投資於我們的員工和我們的團隊，以確保波音公司仍然是一個獨特的地方，可以幫助您建立職業生涯並為我們的重要使命做出貢獻。

Thank you for all that you do to support our customers, our company and each other.

感謝您為支持我們的客戶、公司和彼此所做的一切。

And with that, Brian and I will be happy to take questions.

有了這個，布賴恩和我很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein。

So you have taken customer compensation related to the MAX down from $9.8 billion to $3.4 billion.

因此，您已將與 MAX 相關的客戶補償從 98 億美元降至 34 億美元。

And this understandably helped with getting deliveries out in a tough demand environment.

可以理解的是，這有助於在嚴峻的需求環境中進行交付。

And I think of it as many of your customers are effectively seeing a discount through compensation.

我認為這是因為您的許多客戶實際上通過補償看到了折扣。

But 2 issues around that.

但是有兩個問題。

First, how complete are your compensation negotiations at this point?

首先，您目前的賠償談判有多完整？

In other words, is the remaining $3.4 billion largely spoken for, and it's just a matter of paying it out over time?

換句話說，剩下的 34 億美元是否大部分用於支付，只是隨著時間的推移支付的問題？

And then second, how do you work with new customers to see, if I'm an airline, I look at others benefiting from these effective discounts and discounts that would not be available to me potentially?

其次，您如何與新客戶合作，看看如果我是一家航空公司，我會看到其他人從這些有效的折扣中受益，以及我可能無法獲得的折扣？

And is this an issue that can hold back new MAX orders or put added pressure on pricing?

這是否會阻礙新的 MAX 訂單或增加定價壓力？

So Doug, I think as you know, we have done everything in our power to separate the settlement of the contract misses that we've experienced from new airplane orders and discounts.

所以道格，我想如你所知，我們已盡一切努力將我們遇到的合同失誤的解決與新飛機訂單和折扣區分開來。

So we've done everything in our power to keep them separate, and we've been very successful in that process.

因此，我們已盡我們所能將它們分開，並且在這個過程中我們非常成功。

No negotiation is complete until it's complete.

在完成之前，沒有任何談判是完成的。

So I can't be perfectly accurate on this front.

所以我不能在這方面完全準確。

But the lion's share are, in fact, in the rearview mirror.

但事實上，最大的份額在後視鏡中。

And we know where the wiggle room is with respect to the -- we think the final ones.

我們知道迴旋餘地在哪裡——我們認為是最後一個。

On the other hand, I'll never say we're done until we're done.

另一方面，在我們完成之前，我永遠不會說我們完成了。

I am quite confident that pricing discipline going forward has been and will continue to be sustained and maintained.

我非常有信心，未來的定價紀律已經並將繼續得到維持和維持。

And I think as we shift from what used to be a demand problem to more of a supply problem in the course of next calendar year, that, in fact, all of the trends are in our favor on that front.

我認為，隨著我們在下一個日曆年從過去的需求問題轉向更多的供應問題，事實上，所有趨勢在這方面都對我們有利。

So I really -- I think this has been managed well in the separation of those issues.

所以我真的- 我認為這在分離這些問題時得到了很好的管理。

And I think we're in a pretty good and disciplined place with respect to pricing.

而且我認為我們在定價方面處於一個非常好的和自律的地方。

So your sense is that when you're talking with new customers around this, you're essentially back to the kind of pricing you would normally be at on the MAX?

所以你的感覺是，當你圍繞這個問題與新客戶交談時，你基本上回到了你通常在 MAX 上的定價？

In other words, nothing that, in a sense, is handicapped by the deals you've made over the last 2 years essentially?

換句話說，從某種意義上說，您在過去 2 年中所做的交易基本上沒有任何阻礙？

Yes.

是的。

Doug, I feel very strongly that, that is, in fact, the case.

道格，我非常強烈地感覺到，事實就是如此。

And I've been involved in them.

我也參與其中。

And we've already -- we have proof points.

我們已經——我們有證據。

So yes.

所以是的。

Next, we'll go to the line of Myles Walton with UBS.

接下來，我們將與瑞銀一起前往邁爾斯沃爾頓的路線。

I was wondering, you had commented on the time line for exhausting or liquidating the MAX inventory.

我想知道，您曾評論過耗盡或清算 MAX 庫存的時間線。

I don't think you made a similar comment on the 787 of those 105 aircraft.

我不認為你對這 105 架飛機中的 787 做出了類似的評論。

Could you lay out the time line you think you could get those out the door?

你能列出你認為你可以把它們趕出去的時間線嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's too early for me to even suggest that one.

我認為現在提出這個建議還為時過早。

We'll be as aggressive as we can in moving them out.

我們將盡可能積極地把他們趕出去。

But as you know, it all depends ultimately on the fleet planning changes that our customers employ.

但如您所知，這一切最終都取決於我們的客戶採用的車隊規劃變更。

We've caused them harm to date as they rethink their fleet planning.

迄今為止，當他們重新考慮他們的艦隊計劃時，我們已經給他們造成了傷害。

They're going to take them when they want to take them.

當他們想要帶走它們時，它們就會帶走它們。

I can't jam them down anybody's throat.

我不能把它們塞進任何人的喉嚨裡。

So as soon as we have real clarity with respect to the timing of all that, we will give you a good firm guidance on it.

因此，一旦我們真正明確了所有這些的時間安排，我們就會給你一個很好的堅定指導。

Okay.

好的。

And a follow-up to that.

以及後續行動。

Is there baked into the program concessionary damages that have been included?

計劃中是否包含已包含的優惠損害賠償？

Or would those -- are those still being calculated?

或者那些——那些還在計算中？

And given it's a year ongoing, I'd imagine you're starting to mount those, if that's correct.

鑑於它已經持續了一年，如果這是正確的，我想你會開始安裝這些。

No.

不。

We are actively talking with customers.

我們正在積極與客戶交談。

And as we close the quarter, there are provisions for what we believe those concessions to be as we stand here today.

當我們結束本季度時，我們認為這些讓步是我們今天站在這裡的情況。

Our next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Your 2 months on production on the 787, maybe what are the gating factors to restarting?

您在 787 上生產了 2 個月，也許重啟的關鍵因素是什麼？

You gave a bit of color on that, if you could give a little bit more.

如果你能多給一點，你就給了一點顏色。

And how do we think about underlying demand for the 787s?

我們如何看待對 787 的潛在需求？

Yes.

是的。

So I wish I could give you a little more clarity.

所以我希望我能給你更清楚一點。

It's going to be when it's going to be with respect to increasing the rates and also beginning deliveries because we really do have to get through these issues that prevent us from getting ticketed.

這將是關於提高費率和開始交付的時候，因為我們確實必須解決這些阻止我們被罰單的問題。

While I believe we have clear line of sight on the issues, we've got to give our own teams and then the FAA time to get through all their analytics and agree with everything that we're doing with respect to the rework plans, et cetera.

雖然我相信我們對這些問題有明確的看法，但我們必須給我們自己的團隊，然後是 FAA 時間來完成他們的所有分析，並同意我們在返工計劃方面所做的一切，等等等等。

We are well through it, but we're not through it.

我們很好地度過了它，但我們沒有通過它。

So until that happens, until we can announce deliveries commencing, it's going to be hard for me to give you guidance.

所以在這種情況發生之前，在我們可以宣布開始交付之前，我很難給你指導。

With respect to demand, look, if I thought we were going to be at something below 5 a month anytime soon, I would make bigger adjustments and we'd have less of an abnormal cost scenario.

關於需求，看，如果我認為我們很快就會達到每月低於 5 的水平，我會做出更大的調整，我們就會減少異常成本情景。

Abnormal costs for me are important cost to keep this line up, running fresh and ready when 5 comes back.

對我來說，異常成本是維持這條線路的重要成本，在 5 回來時保持新鮮和準備就緒。

And so that's where we are.

這就是我們所處的位置。

And I also just happen to believe on the basis of the testimony from customers and their experience with the airplane.

而且我也只是根據客戶的證詞和他們對飛機的體驗而相信。

As I said, and I reiterate, the irony of the whole story is it's the most utilized widebody out there.

正如我所說，我重申，整個故事的諷刺之處在於它是目前使用最多的寬體。

It's delivering on efficiency.

它正在提高效率。

It's delivering on everything we promised.

它兌現了我們承諾的一切。

It's got cargo capability, which has been an important factor in the way the role that it's played.

它具有貨運能力，這是它發揮作用的一個重要因素。

It's just -- I think the demand is going to be quite robust.

只是 - 我認為需求將非常強勁。

And I think as we get to the second half of next year, that will begin to play out for all of us.

我認為隨著我們進入明年下半年，這將開始對我們所有人產生影響。

But at this moment in time, I just can't be real definitive until we commence deliveries.

但此時此刻，在我們開始交付之前，我無法真正確定。

Next, we'll go to the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將與美國銀行一起前往羅恩愛潑斯坦的路線。

So Dave, just on the 777X, you guys are saying you're reasonably confident that it's going to be completed in late 2023.

所以戴夫，就在 777X 上，你們說你們有理由相信它會在 2023 年底完成。

Maybe can you give us some color around why you would think that would be the case?

也許你能給我們一些關於為什麼你會認為會這樣的顏色？

I mean most airplane development, it's not just you guys, to be fair, have had this effect of slipping into the next year, that's the end of the year.

我的意思是大多數飛機的開發，不只是你們，公平地說，已經產生了滑入明年的效果，那就是年底。

So what gives you the confidence there?

那麼是什麼讓你有信心呢？

Well, the time we gave ourselves, just for starters.

好吧，我們給自己的時間，只是為了開始。

We put a lot of time into this that prior to the 737 MAX recert, we would never have included.

我們在這方面投入了大量時間，在 737 MAX 重新認證之前，我們永遠不會包括在內。

It would have been the total opposite.

這將是完全相反的。

We would have been doing sort of straight lines from here to the cert.

我們會一直從這裡到證書做直線。

So we have put time in based on everything we've learned from the MAX.

因此，我們根據從 MAX 中學到的所有知識投入了時間。

So far, our experience is that there have been pauses that the FAA has taken, maintaining the same posture that they did with the MAX.

到目前為止，我們的經驗是，FAA 已經採取了暫停措施，保持與 MAX 相同的姿勢。

Boeing, get your house in order before we run this test, Boeing do this before we do that.

波音，在我們進行這個測試之前把你的房子整理好，波音在我們做那個之前先做這個。

And we have stuck to that discipline.

我們一直堅持這一原則。

And that has -- that was all part of the original plan and the timing for fourth quarter of '23.

這已經 - 這是原始計劃的一部分，也是 23 年第四季度的時間安排。

So we're still on that plan.

所以我們仍然在這個計劃上。

Nothing at this moment in time has sort of -- or posture taken has suggested that we're -- that the plan isn't still workable.

目前沒有任何東西——或者採取的姿勢表明我們——該計劃仍然不可行。

So that's why it really was a -- it was that first moment when we surprised everybody with the delay and the time that it was going to take.

所以這就是為什麼它真的是 - 這是我們第一次用延遲和將要花費的時間讓每個人都感到驚訝。

It was all the planning involved in that, that I think still gives us confidence.

正是其中涉及的所有計劃，我認為仍然給了我們信心。

And then maybe as a follow-on to that same question, what are the technical milestones that were sitting outside the company, obviously, right, that we can keep an eye on just as followers to understand that you are indeed -- not you, but the company is indeed on track?

然後也許作為同一個問題的後續，公司外部的技術里程碑是什麼，顯然，對，我們可以作為追隨者密切關注，以了解你確實是 - 而不是你，但公司確實走上了正軌？

Well, on technical milestones, meaning commitments to our customers' efficiency, just that and the other thing.

好吧，關於技術里程碑，意味著對客戶效率的承諾，僅此而已。

I think we're -- we've done all of our own flight tests.

我認為我們 - 我們已經完成了所有自己的飛行測試。

It's another reason why we're so confident.

這是我們如此自信的另一個原因。

We've been flying.

我們一直在飛。

And so we are in a pretty good place on all that front.

所以我們在所有這方面都處於一個非常好的位置。

And we believe we can meet those expectations, if not, surpass them.

我們相信我們可以滿足這些期望，如果不能，超越它們。

So no shortfalls on that front technically.

因此，從技術上講，這方面沒有任何不足。

As we work through all the safety protocols and all the documentation required on that front, I can't really guide you to any one thing, and I don't believe there is any one thing that gets in the way.

當我們完成所有安全協議和這方面所需的所有文檔時，我無法真正指導您完成任何事情，而且我不相信有任何事情會妨礙您。

But if there was ever going to be a gotcha, that's where it would be.

但是，如果有一個陷阱，那就是它。

Our next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

Dave, you mentioned you're -- on the 787, you were in discussion with the FAA about the required actions to resume deliveries.

戴夫，您提到您在 787 上與美國聯邦航空局討論恢復交付所需的行動。

Can you tell us what the FAA's required actions are at this point?

您能告訴我們 FAA 目前需要採取的行動嗎？

You mentioned conducting inspections.

你提到了進行檢查。

Are you still -- are there still inspections for potential new issues?

你還在——是否還在檢查潛在的新問題？

Or have you found everything you're going to find and the inspections are now just looking for those to then do the rework?

或者您是否找到了您將要找到的所有東西，而檢查現在只是在尋找那些然後進行返工？

I know there's uncertainty here, and it's up to the regulator, but you mentioned having some line of sight.

我知道這裡存在不確定性，這取決於監管機構，但你提到有一些視線。

And I think, for the investment community, this time line feels very uncertain.

而且我認為，對於投資界來說，這條時間線感覺非常不確定。

So if you could just kind of tell us everything you know here, even if there is some uncertainty just to help us some -- have some degree of visibility.

因此，如果您可以在這裡告訴我們您所知道的一切，即使存在一些不確定性，只是為了幫助我們——具有一定程度的知名度。

Yes.

是的。

I -- on the subject of certainty, I can't give you certainty until I'm certain.

我——關於確定性，在我確定之前我不能給你確定性。

I wouldn't use the word very.

我不會用非常這個詞。

So I would characterize it as something quite a bit less than that.

所以我會把它描述為比這要少得多的東西。

Our tip-to-tail inspection, and I think I mentioned this the last time we're all together, is complete.

我們從頭到尾的檢查，我想我上次我們在一起時提到過，已經完成了。

So we're not out there hunting for anything.

所以我們不是在外面尋找任何東西。

We did have a sort of a late breaking from a parts supplier that, unfortunately, is a sub-tier supplier to other suppliers where we have to track a particular material substitution question that was brought to us by their regulators and track it through every part and then every supplier to us.

不幸的是，我們確實從一家零部件供應商那裡得到了一種最新的突破，不幸的是，它是其他供應商的次級供應商，我們必須跟踪他們的監管機構向我們提出的特定材料替代問題，並在每個零件中進行跟踪然後每個供應商給我們。

So that process just takes time.

所以這個過程只需要時間。

We have, of course, segmented those parts.

當然，我們已經對這些部分進行了細分。

We believe we're in a good place.

我們相信我們在一個好地方。

We don't believe there's safety ramifications.

我們不相信有安全後果。

On the other hand, on the subject of compliance, we have to make sure we're compliant with the material specs that are included in our design.

另一方面，在合規性方面，我們必須確保我們符合設計中包含的材料規格。

So that just takes some time.

所以這只需要一些時間。

We are working our way through it.

我們正在努力解決它。

We're well past halfway.

我們已經過了一半。

We're working our way down to the finish line, but that was the one that sort of added some time to this.

我們正在努力到達終點線，但那是一種增加了一些時間的方法。

And then with respect to the workload, it's 90% Boeing.

然後就工作量而言，它是波音公司的 90%。

We're the ones that have to satisfy ourselves that we're compliant.

我們是那些必須讓自己滿意的人，我們是合規的。

And then the FAA has to agree with those set of analytics, and they have to agree with all of our -- ultimately the judgments we make.

然後美國聯邦航空局必須同意這些分析，他們必須同意我們所有的——最終是我們做出的判斷。

And that's reasonably well in hand.

這是相當不錯的。

We've been transparent from the word go.

我們從一開始就是透明的。

So there won't be any surprises with respect to what the issues are and/or the data that we're collecting to support our ultimate conclusions.

因此，對於問題是什麼和/或我們為支持我們的最終結論而收集的數據不會有任何意外。

So I think we're in an okay place.

所以我認為我們在一個好的地方。

I wouldn't say very uncertain.

我不會說很不確定。

I don't use that term, but we are uncertain and we've got to get to that moment where we can start delivering.

我不使用這個詞，但我們不確定，我們必須到達那個我們可以開始交付的時刻。

You were done a tip-to-tail inspection.

你做了一個從頭到尾的檢查。

Is the FAA done?

聯邦航空局完成了嗎？

Or is the FAA still searching for additional possible issues?

還是 FAA 仍在尋找其他可能的問題？

Yes.

是的。

No, they -- I wouldn't suggest they've been hunting for them in any profound way.

不，他們——我不建議他們一直在以任何深刻的方式尋找他們。

This is -- from the very beginning, this has been mostly Boeing on Boeing.

這是 - 從一開始，這主要是波音公司的波音公司。

So -- but anything and everything that we ultimately find and/or a supplier volunteers to us, we take it straight to the FAA and then we begin to work our way through it.

所以——但我們最終找到的任何東西和/或供應商自願提供給我們的任何東西，我們都會直接提交給 FAA，然後我們開始著手解決。

So again, I want to be careful.

再說一次，我要小心。

This is not a problem with the FAA.

這不是美國聯邦航空局的問題。

They're doing their work.

他們正在做他們的工作。

We just have to solve these things by ourselves and bring it to them and make sure that they agree with our judgments.

我們只需要自己解決這些事情，並把它帶給他們，並確保他們同意我們的判斷。

So it sounds like it's now just down to this titanium component input issue.

所以聽起來現在只是因為這個鈦組件輸入問題。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

That's the long pole in the tent.

那是帳篷裡的長桿。

Our next question is from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Dave, on the 737 MAX inventory -- aircraft and inventory, right, some of these airplanes had different customers than the initial customers.

戴夫，關於 737 MAX 庫存——飛機和庫存，對，其中一些飛機的客戶與最初的客戶不同。

Can you provide more color in terms of the additional work and testing that needs to be done on these airplanes before they're delivered?

您能否就這些飛機交付前需要完成的額外工作和測試提供更多色彩？

And how long that process takes?

這個過程需要多長時間？

Well, that's a little bit of why some drift into '23.

嗯，這就是為什麼有些人會進入 23 年。

So it's like everything.

所以它就像一切。

We don't get to unilaterally decide who gets them and how fast they get them.

我們不能單方面決定誰得到它們以及他們得到它們的速度。

They got to incorporate them into their fleet plans, and there has been some repositioning of airplanes that require work, and you're right about that.

他們必須將它們納入他們的機隊計劃，並且已經對需要工作的飛機進行了一些重新定位，你是對的。

That's all included in our forward estimates with respect to the program performance.

這些都包含在我們對項目績效的前瞻性估計中。

It's very manageable, and I think well within our means to do it all.

這是非常易於管理的，我認為我們力所能及地做到這一切。

I wouldn't consider it significant relative to the number of airplanes that we're going to move.

相對於我們將要移動的飛機數量，我認為這並不重要。

Most of them are going to move under previously determined plans.

他們中的大多數人將按照先前確定的計劃搬遷。

So that's probably the best color I can give to you.

所以這可能是我能給你的最好的顏色。

But that is why there is some drift into '23 with respect to deliveries.

但這就是為什麼在交付方面有一些漂移到 23 年。

I see.

我知道了。

And I guess on production, right, the supply chain has been in low production for the 737 MAX for some time now, and there's a lot of inventory also in the supplier system.

我猜在生產方面，737 MAX 供應鏈的低產量已經有一段時間了，而且供應商系統中也有很多庫存。

Considering the constraints that other industries are seeing with regards to supply chain, raw materials and labor, what gives you the confidence that you can get to 31 per month and sustain that next year?

考慮到其他行業在供應鏈、原材料和勞動力方面面臨的限制，是什麼讓您有信心每月達到 31 個並在明年保持這一水平？

Well, because 31 was the number we used to evaluate the supply chain.

嗯，因為 31 是我們用來評估供應鏈的數字。

I continue to believe and the evidence is beginning to support that by the second half of next year, our industry will be supply constrained.

我繼續相信並且證據開始支持到明年下半年，我們的行業將受到供應限制。

So in trying to determine what the right rate would be for us at 31, we believe we have a supply chain that can handle that.

因此，在嘗試確定我們 31 歲時的正確費率時，我們相信我們有一個可以處理這個問題的供應鏈。

And you're right, with the amount of inventory build that we have asked for during these current months with low production rates, we think we're in a pretty good place to be able to do that.

你是對的，鑑於我們在當前幾個月的低生產率要求的庫存量，我們認為我們處於一個非常好的地方能夠做到這一點。

With respect to increasing from 31, as we go through the second half of the year and forward, I think that will be an assessment of the supply chain, not an assessment of demand that gets us to whatever number we get to.

關於從 31 增加，隨著我們下半年及以後的發展，我認為這將是對供應鏈的評估，而不是對需求的評估，以使我們達到任何數量。

I think we're going to be in a supply-constrained world, probably from second half through all of '23 with respect to narrowbodies.

我認為我們將處於供應受限的世界中，可能從下半年到 23 年所有窄體飛機。

And that's true, I believe, for the industry.

我相信，對於這個行業來說，這是真的。

Next, we'll move to David Strauss with Barclays.

接下來，我們將轉向巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

A follow-up there on MAX.

關於 MAX 的後續行動。

I guess, Dave, what is the reason you're not delivering more MAX aircraft?

我猜，戴夫，你不交付更多 MAX 飛機的原因是什麼？

I guess if I look at market share of narrowbody deliveries year-to-date, even adjusting out that you can't deliver into China, market share is -- for the MAX is something like 35%, 40%.

我想如果我看一下今年迄今為止窄體交付的市場份額，即使調整了你不能交付到中國的市場份額，市場份額是——因為 MAX 大約是 35%、40%。

So is it an issue with rework?

那麼返工有問題嗎？

Is it an FAA issue?

是美國聯邦航空局的問題嗎？

Or is it a market share issue?

還是市場份額問題？

And when would you expect to see -- you've talked about MAX getting back to 50% market share, when should we see that in terms of delivery levels?

你希望什麼時候看到——你已經談到 MAX 回到 50% 的市場份額，我們應該在什麼時候看到交付水平？

Yes.

是的。

Good question, David.

好問題，大衛。

I -- the bigger source of variability with respect to completions and deliveries is on the inventoried airplanes that we are bringing back -- that we're bringing into service as opposed to ones coming fresh off the production line.

我 - 關於完成和交付的更大可變性來源是我們帶回的庫存飛機 - 我們正在投入使用，而不是那些剛從生產線上下來的飛機。

So there's -- of course, as you know, there's a lot of warming up.

所以有 - 當然，如你所知，有很多熱身。

There's a lot of things that you have to do.

你有很多事情要做。

And depending on what you find, you've got to do the work to make sure the readiness is what it needs to be.

根據你的發現，你必須做一些工作以確保准備就緒是它需要的。

And we've said to the team, take all the time you need to get that exactly right.

我們已經對團隊說，花點時間把事情做好。

We're going to do this one airplane at a time.

我們將一次只做一架飛機。

So we still have more variability in that than I'd like to have.

所以我們仍然有比我想要的更多的可變性。

We are getting a little more stable.

我們變得更加穩定了。

I think as we move into next year, we're going to be quite stable on that front.

我認為隨著我們進入明年，我們將在這方面非常穩定。

But at any rate, that has been the source of most of our delivery variation on the MAX.

但無論如何，這一直是我們在 MAX 上的大部分交付變化的來源。

We got to keep -- we do have to keep that discipline.

我們必須保持——我們確實必須保持這種紀律。

That is why we're at the reliability rates we're at, which is extremely high.

這就是為什麼我們的可靠性率非常高。

And a follow-up on that, Dave.

戴夫，對此進行跟進。

Can you be any more specific at all, the 370 MAX that are in inventory, is it kind of we do a little bit more, liquidate a little bit more through the end of the year and then it's kind of half of whatever is remaining is '22 and half is '23?

你能不能更具體一點，庫存中的 370 MAX，我們是否會做更多的事情，到年底清算更多一點，然後剩下的一半是'22 和一半是 '23？

Or is it still going to be more skewed towards '22?

還是會更傾向於 22 年？

Ought to be more skewed to '22.

應該更傾向於'22。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, it will be more skewed to '22.

是的，它會更偏向於 22 年。

And remember, like I said, we don't -- all these airplanes have homes.

請記住，就像我說的，我們沒有——所有這些飛機都有家。

And so fleet -- our customers' fleet plans and all the turmoil that we've created for them, we got to incorporate every one of these deliveries into their fleet plans.

所以車隊——我們客戶的車隊計劃以及我們為他們製造的所有混亂，我們必須將這些交付中的每一個都納入他們的車隊計劃。

And so it's a -- the counterparty has a lot of sway with respect to when we deliver and how we deliver.

所以這是一個 - 交易對手在我們何時交付以及我們如何交付方面有很大的影響力。

And like I said, that has a lot to do with sort of the tail moving into '23.

就像我說的那樣，這與尾巴進入 23 年有很大關係。

Our next question is from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen。

So Dave, what percent of the 370 approximately are -- planes in inventory are for China?

那麼戴夫，這 370 架中大約有百分之幾——庫存中的飛機是針對中國的？

What percent?

百分之幾？

I don't have that number.

我沒有那個號碼。

I don't have the percentage on the tip of my tongue.

我沒有舌尖上的百分比。

Brian, if you might.

布賴恩，如果可以的話。

But what I will say this is the risk -- if the question is related to risk, the risk related to that number continues to go down as we continue to sort of move out delivery rates.

但我要說的是風險——如果問題與風險有關，隨著我們繼續降低交付率，與該數字相關的風險會繼續下降。

And then secondly, with the robustness of the market, the willingness and the number of people interested in potentially taking some big portion of that, that's also sort of at the door.

其次，隨著市場的穩健性、有興趣從中分得一大部分的意願和人數，這也即將到來。

So it's not as big a risk to our company as it once felt.

因此，它對我們公司的風險並不像以前那樣大。

On the other hand, I don't have the number on the tip of my tongue.

另一方面，我沒有舌尖上的數字。

Yes.

是的。

Cai, it's roughly 1/3.

蔡，大約是1/3。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

So the one problem I have is if you're really going to take down more than half of the inventory in storage, and you're going to have -- you're going to raise the production rate to 31, by my math, you have to deliver over about 500 planes next year MAXs or more.

所以我遇到的一個問題是，如果你真的要減少一半以上的存儲庫存，而且你將擁有 - 你將生產率提高到 31，根據我的數學，明年你必須交付超過 500 架 MAX 或更多飛機。

And you really only did an average of 20 per month in the third quarter, I guess, 26 in September.

而且你真的只在第三季度平均每月做 20 次，我猜是 9 月份的 26 次。

October doesn't look a little -- so much stronger.

10 月看起來不那麼強烈——強多了。

So how do we get there?

那麼我們如何到達那裡呢？

I mean that just seems like a huge, huge increase in deliveries.

我的意思是，這似乎是交付量的巨大增長。

Is there a problem there?

那裡有問題嗎？

What am I missing?

我錯過了什麼？

Yes.

是的。

No, we have to get better at delivering out of the completion center our inventoried airplanes, which I think we will.

不，我們必須在完成中心交付我們庫存的飛機方面做得更好，我認為我們會這樣做。

As I mentioned to you before, we've had a lot of variability on that front.

正如我之前向您提到的，我們在這方面有很多可變性。

And we've got to be better at that, and that is the kind of work that we're doing.

我們必須在這方面做得更好，這就是我們正在做的工作。

So I'm reasonably confident.

所以我相當有信心。

I'm not sure I've got the same math you've got.

我不確定我有沒有和你一樣的數學。

But nevertheless, you're in the ballpark.

但是，儘管如此，你還是在球場上。

And that's what we have to commit to do.

這就是我們必須承諾做的事情。

Next, we'll go to Peter Arment with Baird.

接下來，我們將和貝爾德一起去彼得·阿門特。

Maybe one for Brian.

也許是給布賴恩的。

It seems like he's getting lonely over there.

那邊好像越來越寂寞了。

Just maybe how you're thinking about kind of the drivers, the bigger buckets as we think about comparing 2022 versus '21, and obviously a lot determined on some of these liquidations of what's parked?

只是也許您是如何考慮驅動程序的類型，當我們考慮比較 2022 年和 21 年時，更大的桶，並且顯然很大程度上決定了對停放的這些清算中的一些？

Yes.

是的。

So a big piece of it is going to be, as I mentioned, the deliveries and the subsequent inventory unwind.

因此，正如我所提到的，其中很大一部分將是交付和隨後的庫存清理。

We've talked a lot about how the 737 is going to unwind.

我們已經談了很多關於 737 將如何放鬆的問題。

We would -- the same thing with the 787.

我們會 - 與 787 一樣。

We continue to -- and that will be a huge benefit to the -- going from negative to positive.

我們繼續——這將是一個巨大的好處——從消極到積極。

We always want to temper folks to make sure they appreciate that the advance burn down will happen by the end of 2022 and it's going to naturally occur as those deliveries take place.

我們總是希望人們能夠確保他們明白提前燒毀將在 2022 年底之前發生，並且隨著交付的發生，這將自然而然地發生。

So really, it's deliveries, a vast majority of that swing in the cash flow as well as continuing to drive the operations to higher stability and continue to work our business transformation efforts.

所以真的，它的交付，現金流中的絕大部分波動，以及繼續推動運營達到更高的穩定性並繼續開展我們的業務轉型工作。

Is there any -- and just a follow-up on that.

有沒有 - 只是一個後續行動。

Is there any color on what the burn down looks like on the advanced line?

高級線上的燒毀看起來有什麼顏色嗎？

We don't have that specifically, but we do know that based on the -- some of the order activity from this year and the delivery timing between the 2 years, it's naturally going to have to burn down and we're preparing for that.

我們沒有具體的，但我們知道，根據今年的一些訂單活動和兩年之間的交付時間，它自然會被燒毀，我們正在為此做準備.

It's a headwind, but not so much so that we can't accomplish that free cash flow generation largely because we're going to deliver a lot more airplanes.

這是一個逆風，但並非如此，以至於我們無法實現自由現金流的產生，主要是因為我們將交付更多的飛機。

And our next question is from Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Hunter Keay。

Two quick ones.

兩個快的。

What are you penciling in for tax refunds for the '22 free cash flow guide?

您為 '22 自由現金流指南的退稅準備了什麼？

And then of the 105 787s that you have in inventory right now, assuming the FAA gave the green light to start delivering again, how many of those 105 require additional rework?

然後在你現在庫存的 105 787 中，假設 FAA 批准重新開始交付，這 105 中有多少需要額外的返工？

And how many could be delivered pretty quickly?

有多少可以很快交付？

Well, let me answer the second question first.

好吧，讓我先回答第二個問題。

I'll let Brian discuss taxes, although I doubt he'll want to forecast it.

我會讓布賴恩討論稅收，儘管我懷疑他會想要預測它。

Most of the rework with respect to the issues that have come up on the 787 is in the rearview mirror for us.

對於 787 上出現的問題，大部分返工都在我們的後視鏡中。

So this will be a little less about that.

所以這會少一點。

Now whatever we find in these last set of parts and anything that we may have to do on that front, as I said, is ahead of us.

現在，正如我所說，我們在最後一組部分中找到的任何東西以及我們在這方面可能需要做的任何事情，都擺在我們面前。

But we've been doing rework nonstop for the last 7 months.

但在過去的 7 個月裡，我們一直在不停地進行返工。

So it's not a giant mountain ahead of us.

所以它不是我們面前的一座巨山。

So then it just becomes a question of customer, when do they want it.

那麼這就變成了客戶的問題，他們什麼時候想要。

Now remember, international ops for almost all of our customers are still significantly below where they used to be.

現在請記住，我們幾乎所有客戶的國際運營仍遠低於過去。

So when do they want them?

那麼他們什麼時候需要呢？

How does it meld into their fleet plan?

它如何融入他們的艦隊計劃？

Because we're going to be incredibly accommodative to that.

因為我們會非常適應這一點。

And then second, just how we orchestrate the movement through our completion center alongside the FAA.

其次，我們如何通過我們的完成中心與 FAA 一起協調運動。

So those will be the determinants.

所以這些將是決定因素。

But it will not be a giant rework backlog that is going to prevent us from delivering airplanes.

但這不會是阻止我們交付飛機的巨大返工積壓。

Yes.

是的。

On the taxes, we could expect something, but when we execute our swing from negative to positive, it's not a factor in underwriting that case.

在稅收方面，我們可以期待一些事情，但是當我們執行從負面到正面的轉變時，這不是承保該案例的一個因素。

So not a lot.

所以不是很多。

That concludes The Boeing Company's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

波音公司 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。