波音 (BA) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation plus the analyst question-and-answer session are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。大家好，歡迎參加波音公司2020年第四季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。管理層討論和幻燈片演示以及分析師問答環節正在透過網路進行現場直播。（操作員指示）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'm turning the call over to Ms. Maurita Sutedja, Vice President of Investor Relations for the Boeing Company. Ms. Sutedja, please go ahead.

現在，我將把開場白和介紹交給波音公司投資者關係副總裁 Maurita Sutedja 女士。蘇特賈女士，請繼續。

Thank you, John. Good morning. Welcome to Boeing's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. I'm Maurita Sutedja. And with me today are David Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Greg Smith, Boeing Executive Vice President of Enterprise Operations and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，約翰。早安.歡迎參加波音公司 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。我是 Maurita Sutedja。今天與我一起出席的還有波音公司總裁兼執行長 David Calhoun 和波音公司企業營運執行副總裁兼財務長格雷格史密斯 (Greg Smith)。

As a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation through our website at boeing.com. As always, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today. Projections, estimates and goals we included in our discussion this morning are likely to involve risks, which are detailed in our news release, in our various SEC filings and the forward-looking statements disclaimer at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosure and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

提醒一下，您可以透過我們的網站 boeing.com 關註今天的廣播和幻燈片簡報。與往常一樣，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務資訊。我們今天上午討論中提出的預測、估計和目標可能會涉及風險，這些風險在我們的新聞稿、我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的各種文件以及本網絡演示末尾的前瞻性聲明免責聲明中有詳細說明。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益報告和介紹，以了解某些非公認會計準則指標的揭露和調節。

Now I will turn the call over to David Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給大衛·卡爾霍恩。

Yes. Thank you, Maurita. Good morning, everyone. 2020 was a historically challenging year for our world, for our industry, for our business and our communities. I hope you are all staying safe.

是的。謝謝你，毛麗塔。大家早安。2020 年對我們的世界、我們的產業、我們的企業和我們的社區來說都是具有歷史性挑戰的一年。我希望你們都平安。

We are managing our operations each and every day the best that we can to minimize disruption while always protecting the well-being of our associates. A lot has happened in the last few months. So let me begin by sharing some of the highlights starting with the 737 MAX on the next chart.

我們每天都在盡力管理我們的運營，以盡量減少干擾，同時始終保護員工的福祉。過去幾個月發生了很多事。因此，首先讓我分享一些亮點，從下一張圖表中的 737 MAX 開始。

We made significant progress on the 737 program this quarter. The FAA in the United States, ANAC in Brazil, Transport Canada and just this morning, EASA in Europe have approved the resumption of 737 MAX operations, marking important milestones on our return to service journey. I would encourage all of you to read the various reports issued by our regulators regarding the intense scrutiny they put our airplanes through. This is the culmination of a comprehensive effort, including roughly 400,000 engineering hours, 1,400 test and check flights and over 3,000 flight hours completed on the airplane. Following one of the most rigorous certification efforts in aviation history, we're confident in the safety of our airplane.

本季我們在 737 專案上取得了重大進展。美國聯邦航空管理局、巴西民航局、加拿大交通部以及今天早上歐洲的歐洲航空安全局都已批准恢復 737 MAX 的運營，這標誌著我們恢復運營之旅的重要里程碑。我鼓勵大家閱讀我們的監管機構發布的有關他們對我們的飛機進行嚴格審查的各種報告。這是全面努力的成果，其中包括大約 400,000 個工程小時、1,400 次測試和檢查飛行以及超過 3,000 個飛機飛行小時。經過航空史上最嚴格的認證之一，我們對飛機的安全充滿信心。

We continue to work with global regulators and our customers to safely return the airplane to service worldwide. We've assumed that the remaining non-U. S. regulatory approvals will occur during the first half of 2021, and we will continue to follow their lead in the steps ahead.

我們將繼續與全球監管機構和客戶合作，確保飛機安全地恢復全球服務。我們假設剩下的非美國。美國監管機構的批准將於 2021 年上半年進行，我們將繼續關注未來措施。

Our first priority is assisting our customers with return to service for their existing parked fleet. Every airline has different operational considerations for returning planes to revenue service and time lines for training their pilots. We're supporting each of them as they go through their process.

我們的首要任務是幫助客戶恢復現有停放車隊的服務。每家航空公司對於飛機恢復運營的運營考慮以及飛行員培訓的時間表都有不同的要求。我們會在整個過程中為他們每個人提供支持。

Next, we're focused on safely delivering our 737 MAX airplanes that are in inventory, which began in December of last year. Prior to the delivery, teams are performing all the necessary tests and ensuring each airplane receives customized care and rolls into a delivery stall ready for customer acceptance and FAA review.

接下來，我們專注於安全交付庫存的 737 MAX 飛機，這項工作從去年 12 月開始。交付前，團隊正在進行所有必要的測試，確保每架飛機都得到客製化的維護，並進入交付攤位，準備好接受客戶驗收和聯邦航空管理局的審查。

Since the FAA's approval to return the operations on November 18, we've delivered more than 40 737 MAX aircraft to our customers, and 5 airlines have safely returned their fleets to service, safely flying over 2,700 flights and approximately 5,500 flight hours as of January 25. Based on conversations with our customers, passenger load factors to date have been relatively consistent with the airline total fleet averages.

自11月18日美國聯邦航空管理局批准恢復營運以來，我們已向客戶交付了40多架737 MAX飛機，5家航空公司已安全恢復其機隊服務，截至1月25日，已安全飛行超過2,700個航班，約5,500個飛行小時。根據我們與客戶的對話，迄今為止的客座率與航空公司機隊總平均水平相對一致。

We're encouraged by the progress to date and also pleased with the confidence our customers have placed in us and the airplane, highlighted most recently by Ryanair and Alaska Air announcements.

我們對迄今為止的進展感到鼓舞，同時也對客戶對我們和飛機的信心感到高興，最近瑞安航空和阿拉斯加航空的公告就凸顯了這一點。

In addition to our 737 progress, we continue delivering for our defense, space and services customers. Let me highlight a few of these accomplishments.

除了 737 的進步之外，我們還繼續為國防、航太和服務客戶提供服務。讓我重點介紹其中的一些成就。

Our defense, security and space team achieved first flight of the MQ-25 unmanned aircraft with an aerial refueling store and completed engineering design review for Wideband Global SATCOM-11+ communications satellite. Our global services team was awarded a performance-based logistics contract for the Singapore F-15SG fleet and selected to provide P-8A training for the Royal New Zealand Air Force.

我們的國防、安全和太空團隊實現了配備空中加油機的 MQ-25 無人機的首次飛行，並完成了寬頻全球 SATCOM-11+ 通訊衛星的工程設計審查。我們的全球服務團隊獲得了新加坡 F-15SG 機隊的基於績效的物流合同，並被選中為新西蘭皇家空軍提供 P-8A 訓練。

Now let's turn to the next slide to discuss the industry environment. Overall, the government services and defense and space businesses remain significant and relatively stable. And we continue to see solid global demand for our major programs. Nevertheless, the scale of government spending on COVID-19 response has the potential to add pressure to global defense spending in the years ahead.

現在我們翻到下一張投影片來討論產業環境。整體而言，政府服務和國防及航太業務仍然重要且相對穩定。我們繼續看到全球對我們主要項目強勁的需求。儘管如此，各國政府在應對新冠疫情方面的支出規模可能在未來幾年給全球國防開支帶來更大壓力。

Broad support for our defense portfolio is underscored by the $5 billion of orders BDS booked in the fourth quarter across key franchise platforms. Just this month, we also received the contract awards for Lot 6 and Lot 7, which include 27 additional KC-46 Tankers for the U.S. Air Force.

BDS 第四季在主要特許經營平台上簽訂了價值 50 億美元的訂單，這突顯了對我們國防產品組合的廣泛支持。就在本月，我們還獲得了第 6 批和第 7 批合同，其中包括為美國空軍額外提供 27 架 KC-46 加油機。

Additionally, the fiscal year 2021 defense bill includes investments in products and services from across our defense, space and government services business. The diversity of our portfolio will continue to help provide critical stability for us as we move forward.

此外，2021財年的國防法案還包括對我們的國防、航太和政府服務業務的產品和服務的投資。我們的投資組合的多樣性將繼續為我們未來的發展提供關鍵的穩定性。

In the commercial market, while many of our key long-term fundamentals remain intact, we continue to see near-term market pressure due to COVID-19. Despite solid progress on the vaccine front, the next 6 to 9 months will remain very challenging for our airline customers and the entire industry. COVID-19 case rates continue to be high and travel restrictions remain in place, putting significant pressure on passenger traffic.

在商業市場，雖然我們許多關鍵的長期基本面仍然完好無損，但我們仍然看到 COVID-19 帶來的短期市場壓力。儘管疫苗研發取得了實質進展，但未來 6 至 9 個月對我們的航空客戶和整個產業來說仍然充滿挑戰。COVID-19 病例率持續居高不下，且旅行限制仍然存在，對客運帶來巨大壓力。

Similar to the trends we saw last quarter, the domestic market is leading the recovery, albeit a slow pace. Domestic traffic in November improved slightly to 41% below 2019. On the other hand, international operations continued to be depressed, with November traffic still 88% below the prior year. Recovery in the international segment has been weak due in large part to the absence of coordinated global policies on cross-border entry protocols.

與我們上個季度看到的趨勢類似，國內市場正在引領復甦，儘管步伐緩慢。11 月國內客運量略有改善，比 2019 年下降 41%。另一方面，國際業務持續低迷，11月客運量仍較上年下降88%。國際市場的復甦一直很疲軟，很大程度上是由於缺乏協調一致的跨境入境協議全球政策。

The uncertainty in the international markets has meant that the active fleet is still around 3/4 the size of its precrisis level. Coupled with utilization rates that are below historical averages, airlines are flying just about half of their normal operations at the global level.

國際市場的不確定性意味著現役船隊規模仍約為危機前的 3/4。再加上利用率低於歷史平均水平，全球航空公司的飛行量僅為正常水平的一半。

Regionally, we're seeing case rates and government travel restrictions continue to evolve, resulting in different recovery trajectories. China domestic passenger traffic, for example, has rebounded significantly, although it's not without risk. Europe is experiencing a pullback because of the resurgence of COVID-19 and related government restrictions. And then finally, in North America, traffic remains more than 60% below our 2019 levels, and these dynamics continue to drive a very uneven recovery.

從地區來看，我們看到病例率和政府旅行限制不斷變化，導致不同的復甦軌跡。例如，中國國內客運量已大幅反彈，儘管這並非沒有風險。由於新冠疫情的復發和相關的政府限制，歐洲正在經歷經濟衰退。最後，在北美，客流量仍比 2019 年的水準低 60% 以上，這些動態繼續推動非常不均衡的復甦。

As anticipated, the number of aircraft being retired from the active fleet continues to grow, 1,300 and growing. We expect this trend to continue as our customers focus on retiring their oldest and least efficient airplanes and replacing them with new airplanes that will be as much as 25% to 40% more fuel efficient and better for the environment. The longer it takes to put COVID in the rearview mirror, the more retirements we will see.

正如預期的那樣，從現役機隊退役的飛機數量持續增長，目前已達到 1,300 架，並且還在增加。我們預計這一趨勢將會持續下去，因為我們的客戶將專注於淘汰最老、效率最低的飛機，並用燃油效率提高 25% 至 40% 且更環保的新飛機取而代之。把新冠疫情拋在腦後的時間越長，我們就會看到越多的人退休。

As for the freighter market, we're seeing an interesting dynamic with more freighters flying today than before the pandemic due to the limited belly cargo capacity from passenger airplanes. While overall cargo traffic showed a year-on-year decline, yields have remained elevated. The dramatic growth of e-commerce in the past year has fueled express freighter expansion. This has supported the demand for our cargo aircraft as seen in recent orders from DHL for 8 777 freighters and for -- and from Atlas Air for 4 747 freighters.

至於貨機市場，我們看到一個有趣的動態：由於客機腹部載貨能力有限​​，如今的貨機數量比疫情之前還要多。雖然整體貨運量年減，但收益率仍較高。過去一年電子商務的快速發展推動了快遞貨運的擴張。這支持了我們貨機的需求，例如最近 DHL 訂購了 8 架 777 貨機，而 Atlas Air 訂購了 4 架 747 貨機。

We also added incremental freighter conversion orders to our global services backlog. And over the long run, cargo demand will continue to be driven by global trade and GDP growth and recovery.

我們也在全球服務積壓訂單中增加了增量貨機改裝訂單。從長遠來看，貨運需求將繼續受到全球貿易和GDP成長和復甦的推動。

We're encouraged by the speed of vaccine development and efficacy rates. These trends bolster our medium-term outlook and support our belief in the long-term trend -- strength of the market. Consistent with what we've shared previously as well as IATA and other industry groups, we expect it will take around 3 years for travel to return to the 2019 levels and a few years beyond that to return to our long-term growth trends.

疫苗研發速度和有效率令我們感到鼓舞。這些趨勢增強了我們的中期展望，並支持了我們對長期趨勢—市場強勁的信念。與我們之前以及國際航空運輸協會和其他行業組織分享的資訊一致，我們預計旅遊業需要大約 3 年才能恢復到 2019 年的水平，再過幾年才能恢復到我們的長期成長趨勢。

Again, we see the recovery in 3 phases. First, we're seeing domestic traffic improving in places like Brazil, the United States, India and other large domestic markets. Next, regional markets should begin to recover such as intra-Asia, intra-Europe and intra-Americas flights. And then finally, long-haul international routes, which require the most coordination, will be the last to bounce back. Therefore, demand for narrowbody aircraft is expected to recover quite a bit faster while widebody demand will remain challenged for a longer period.

再次，我們看到復甦分為三個階段。首先，我們看到巴西、美國、印度等大型國內市場的國內客流量正在改善。接下來，亞洲內部、歐洲內部和美洲內部航班等區域市場應該會開始復甦。最後，需要最多協調的長途國際航線將最後恢復。因此，預計窄體飛機的需求將恢復得更快，而寬體飛機的需求將在較長時間內面臨挑戰。

As we move forward, testing mechanisms, progress on vaccine distribution and coordinated government interactions will be key drivers of the recovery. We will continue working with the industry through our Confident Travel Initiative. Industry and academic studies continue to demonstrate that with multiple layers of protection, including HEPA filters, enhanced cleaning procedures and the use of personal face coverings, that the risk of transmission while flying is quite low.

隨著我們不斷前進，檢測機制、疫苗分發的進展以及政府協調的互動將成為復甦的關鍵驅動力。我們將繼續透過「信心旅行計畫」與業界合作。產業和學術研究不斷表明，透過多層保護，包括高效能空氣微粒子過濾器、加強清潔程序和使用個人面罩，飛行過程中的傳播風險相當低。

Collaboration between governments is an important element for implementing new screening protocols, which can even further reduce the risk of transmission.

政府之間的合作是實施新篩檢協議的重要因素，甚至可以進一步降低傳播風險。

In the commercial services market, we saw modest incremental demand improvement in the fourth quarter. Although we are starting to see some stability, the recovery has been slow and we continue to anticipate will take multiple years to reach our previous demand levels. Accelerated retirements will also result in newer fleets when we emerge from the pandemic. That will reduce service demand and prolong their recovery.

在商業服務市場，我們看到第四季需求增量略有改善。儘管我們開始看到一些穩定，但復甦仍然緩慢，我們預計還需要數年時間才能達到先前的需求水準。當我們擺脫疫情時，加速退休也將帶來更新的船隊。這將減少服務需求並延長其復甦時間。

Given the challenging environment, managing liquidity continues to be vital to the aerospace industry to bridge us to recovery. Despite the unprecedented situation, there generally continues to be liquidity in the market for our customers and for Boeing.

鑑於充滿挑戰的環境，管理流動性對於航空航太業走向復甦仍然至關重要。儘管出現了前所未有的情況，但對於我們的客戶和波音來說，市場整體上仍然保持著流動性。

Financiers and investors understand the long-term value proposition of aircraft and the fundamental need to connect the world. And this has been demonstrated by the broad global interest in the space and the new entrants into the market over the past several years.

金融家和投資者了解飛機的長期價值主張和連結世界的根本需求。過去幾年全球對該領域的廣泛興趣以及新進入者的數量已經證明了這一點。

We supported the COVID relief and stimulus packages passed by Congress last year and similar efforts underway globally. These relief programs, including access to financing, have been helpful to our customers as well as a number of our suppliers. And we believe that support will help enable a faster recover -- recovery for the industry as we are navigating the pandemic.

我們支持國會去年通過的新冠疫情救助和刺激計劃以及全球正在進行的類似努力。這些救濟計劃，包括融資管道，對我們的客戶以及一些供應商都有幫助。我們相信，在我們應對疫情的過程中，這些支持將有助於產業更快復甦。

As we see airlines adapt to these market realities, product differentiation and versatility will be key. Our product lineup remains well positioned to meet our customer needs and support airline plans to gain efficiencies and reach emission goals.

正如我們所見，航空公司適應這些市場現實，產品差異化和多功能性將是關鍵。我們的產品系列仍然能夠滿足客戶需求並支援航空公司提高效率和實現排放目標的計劃。

For example, our digital solutions continue to provide important capabilities to our customers, as highlighted by Frontier Airlines' recent decision to sign a 10-year digital services agreement with us for their fleet. Our attractive portfolio and the diversity of our backlog provide a strong foundation as we prepare to recover and grow in the future.

例如，我們的數位解決方案繼續為客戶提供重要功能，正如 Frontier Airlines 最近決定與我們簽署為期 10 年的機隊數位服務協議所強調的那樣。我們極具吸引力的產品組合和多樣化的積壓訂單為我們未來的復甦和成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

Now let's turn to commercial airplane production rates on Slide 4. We're closely coordinating with our customers to understand their fleet needs while monitoring the broader market environment to ensure we're aligning supply with demand. Let me provide some key updates across our programs.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 4 上的商用飛機生產率。我們正在與客戶密切協調，以了解他們的機隊需求，同時監控更廣泛的市場環境，以確保我們的供應與需求保持一致。讓我提供一些有關我們計劃的關鍵更新。

Starting with the 787 program. As we've shared, we're conducting comprehensive inspections on undelivered airplanes, both in Everett and in South Carolina. Since last quarter, we've expanded the scope of those inspections, including work done at our supplier partners. Our assessment shows that none of the issues identified represent safety of flight concerns. Nevertheless, we remain committed to taking the time to ensure each airplane meets our rigorous engineering specifications. And although this work has a near-term impact for us, in terms of both schedule and cost, it is the right thing to do. And we continue to be in coordination with the FAA and our customers throughout the process.

從 787 計劃開始。正如我們所分享的，我們正在埃弗雷特和南卡羅來納州對未交付的飛機進行全面檢查。自上個季度以來，我們擴大了這些檢查的範圍，包括在我們的供應商合作夥伴處所做的工作。我們的評估表明，所發現的問題均不代表飛行安全問題。儘管如此，我們仍然致力於花時間確保每架飛機都符合我們嚴格的工程規格。儘管這項工作會對我們產生短期影響，但從進度和成本來看，這是正確的做法。在整個過程中，我們將繼續與美國聯邦航空局和我們的客戶保持協調。

Transparency is clear. Through our analysis, we've been able to determine the resolution for the majority of previously identified areas, including our major join sections. In some cases, this requires inspections and rework, while in other areas, no further action is required. We've made good progress and are now completing analysis on a few remaining areas to validate the next steps.

透明度很明確。透過分析，我們已經能夠確定大多數先前確定的區域的解決方案，包括我們的主要連接部分。在某些情況下，這需要檢查和返工，而在其他情況下，則不需要採取進一步的行動。我們已經取得了良好的進展，目前正在完成對剩餘幾個領域的分析，以驗證下一步。

As we see it today, this work may take a few more weeks, but we will provide our engineers the time they need to complete that analysis. We are implementing changes in the production process to ensure newly built airplanes meet our specifications and do not require further inspection. This is consistent with our determination to eliminate rework from our production system to position us on stronger footing when the market recovers.

正如我們今天所看到的，這項工作可能還需要幾週的時間，但我們將為我們的工程師提供完成分析所需的時間。我們正在對生產流程進行變革，以確保新建的飛機符合我們的規格並且不需要進一步檢查。這與我們消除生產系統中返工的決心一致，以便在市場復甦時讓我們處於更穩固的地位。

We're looking forward to resuming 787 deliveries to our customers. But as I discussed, there's still work to be done. Based on what we know today, we expect 787 deliveries to resume later this quarter. However, it will be back-end loaded with no delivery this month and most likely very few, if any, in February.

我們期待著恢復向客戶交付 787 架飛機。但正如我所討論的，仍有工作要做。根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們預計 787 的交付將在本季稍後恢復。然而，本月它將是後端裝載，不會交付，而且 2 月份交付的量很可能非常少（如果有的話）。

Also, based on what we know today, we still expect to deliver the vast majority of the 787 aircraft inventory by the end of the year. We will keep you updated on the progress.

此外，根據我們目前掌握的情況，我們仍預計在今年年底前交付絕大多數 787 飛機庫存。我們將隨時向您通報進度。

As we've previously shared, given the widebody market environment, we're in the process of transitioning to a rate of 5 per month in March, at which point, 787 final assembly will be consolidated to Boeing South Carolina.

正如我們之前所分享的，考慮到寬體市場環境，我們將在 3 月過渡到每月 5 架的生產速度，屆時 787 的組裝將合併到波音南卡羅來納工廠。

On the 777, 777X programs, we now anticipate that the first 777X delivery will occur in late 2023. This schedule and the financial impact to the program this quarter reflect a number of factors, including an updated assessment of global certification requirements, the latest assessment of COVID-19 impacts on market demand and discussions with our customers with respect to delivery timing.

關於 777、777X 項目，我們現在預計第一架 777X 將於 2023 年底交付。該計劃的時間表和本季度對計劃的財務影響反映了許多因素，包括對全球認證要求的最新評估、對 COVID-19 對市場需求影響的最新評估以及與客戶就交貨時間進行的討論。

We're working closely with global regulators on all aspects of the 777X development. This involves listening to all their feedback and applying lessons learned from our experiences on the 737 MAX program recertification and applying to our 777X certification plan. It also involves making prudent design modifications as necessary to meet the various global regulators' expectations.

我們正在與全球監管機構就 777X 開發的各個方面進行密切合作。這包括聽取他們的所有回饋意見，並將我們在 737 MAX 計劃重新認證中的經驗教訓應用到我們的 777X 認證計劃中。它還涉及根據需要進行審慎的設計修改，以滿足全球各監管機構的期望。

As part of our assessment, we've made the decision to implement certain modifications to the aircraft design. Our decision to make these modifications, which will involve firmware and hardware changes to the actuator control electronics, reflects our current judgment of global regulators' compliance expectations. This decision has led to these revised schedule assumptions.

作為評估的一部分，我們決定對飛機設計進行某些修改。我們決定進行這些修改，這將涉及對執行器控制電子設備的韌體和硬體的更改，這反映了我們對全球監管機構合規期望的當前判斷。這項決定導致了這些修改後的時間表假設。

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on passenger traffic, particularly international long-haul routes serviced by large widebodies such as the 777X, which has shifted the anticipated replacement wave and overall demand for widebody airplanes to the right. Additionally, the challenging business climate is impacting our 777X customers.

新冠疫情對客運量產生了重大影響，尤其是由 777X 等大型寬體飛機服務的國際長途航線，導致預期的替換浪潮和寬體飛機的整體需求向右移動。此外，充滿挑戰的商業環境也對我們的 777X 客戶產生了影響。

These broader market factors, coupled with our conversations with our customers about preferred delivery timing, informed our current assumptions. As a result of these updated program assumptions, we booked a $6.5 billion pretax charge in the quarter, a significant component of which is driven by a reduction in the program's initial accounting quantity. Greg will go through the financial impact in greater detail a little later.

這些更廣泛的市場因素，加上我們與客戶關於首選交貨時間的對話，為我們當前的假設提供了資訊。由於這些更新的計劃假設，我們在本季度計入了 65 億美元的稅前費用，其中很大一部分是由於該計劃的初始​​會計數量的減少。格雷格稍後將更詳細地闡述財務影響。

Despite the challenges we and the industry are facing, we are confident in the 777X airplane and the unmatched capability it will offer our customers. With the most payload capacity and lowest operating cost per seat of any widebody, the 777X completes our market-leading widebody family with a distinct competitive advantage.

儘管我們和整個行業都面臨著挑戰​​，但我們對 777X 飛機及其將為客戶提供的無與倫比的能力充滿信心。777X 擁有所有寬體飛機中最大的有效載荷能力和最低的每座營運成本，以獨特的競爭優勢完善了我們市場領先的寬體飛機系列。

Across the total widebody market of more than 8,000 projected deliveries over the next 2 decades, we see replacement demand for over 1,500 large widebody airplanes, which are well suited for the 777X. We also continue to see strong freighter demand and good delivery pace for our current 777 freighter. Our production rate expectations for the combined 777, 777X program remains at 2 per month in 2021. We continue to assess our production plans to efficiently transition to the 777X.

在未來 20 年內，整個寬體飛機市場預計將交付 8,000 多架飛機，其中，大型寬體飛機的替換需求超過 1,500 架，這些飛機非常適合 777X。我們也繼續看到對我們目前的 777 貨機的強勁貨機需求和良好的交貨速度。我們對 2021 年 777 和 777X 合併項目的生產率預期仍為每月 2 架。我們將繼續評估我們的生產計劃，以便有效地過渡到 777X。

Turning now to the 737 program. We're currently producing at a low rate and expect to gradually increase the rate to 31 per month in early 2022. And we expect further gradual increases to correspond with market demand. We will continue to assess the delivery profile for 2021 as it will help inform our 737 production ramp -- our ramp plan, and we will continue to communicate transparently with our supply chain to ensure stability. At the end of the quarter, we had approximately 3,300 aircraft in our 737 backlog. There's no change to our production rate plan for the 747 or the 767.

現在來談談 737 計劃。我們目前的生產速度較低，預計到 2022 年初將逐步提高到每月 31 台。我們預計產量將進一步逐步增加，以滿足市場需求。我們將繼續評估 2021 年的交付情況，因為這將有助於我們了解 737 產量提升計劃，並且我們將繼續與我們的供應鏈進行透明溝通，以確保穩定性。截至本季末，我們的 737 積壓訂單中約有 3,300 架飛機。我們的 747 或 767 生產力計劃沒有變化。

The market continues to be dynamic, and we will monitor closely as we prudently balance supply and demand across all of our programs. Although this remains an unprecedented and uncertain time, we are confident air travel will return. And when it does, we will be ready to support our customers with a well-positioned family of airplanes.

市場持續活躍，我們將密切關注，審慎平衡所有項目的供需。儘管這仍然是一個前所未有且充滿不確定性的時期，但我們相信航空旅行將會恢復。當它實現時，我們將準備好透過一系列定位良好的飛機為客戶提供支援。

Now let's quickly look at our 2021 priorities on Slide 5. As you'll see, our priorities remain consistent. Navigating through this global pandemic and rebuilding stronger on the other side continues to be a key focus, along with safely returning the 737 to service worldwide, building on our efforts over the past 2 years.

現在讓我們快速瀏覽一下投影片 5 上的 2021 年優先事項。如您所見，我們的優先事項保持一致。度過這場全球疫情並在疫情結束後重建得更加強大仍然是我們關注的重點，同時還要在過去兩年的努力基礎上，安全地讓 737 恢復全球服務。

We remain committed to working closely with all of our stakeholders to rebuild trust one day at a time, one airplane at a time. And we'll do that by living our values, demonstrating transparency every step of the way and delivering on our commitments. As part of our continued commitment to safety, we recently announced our first Chief Aerospace Safety Officer.

我們將繼續致力於與所有利害關係人密切合作，每天、每架飛機地重建信任。我們將透過實踐我們的價值觀、在每一步中展現透明度以及履行我們的承諾來實現這一目標。作為我們對安全的持續承諾的一部分，我們最近宣布了我們的第一位首席航空航天安全官。

Consistent with these values is our focus on sustainability. We continue to make great strides in our efforts, innovating and operating to make the world better. We achieved net carbon -- net 0 carbon emissions at our manufacturing and work sites in 2020 by expanding conservation and renewable energy use while tapping into responsible offsets for the remaining greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, we've committed that our commercial airplanes will be capable and certified to fly on 100% sustainable aviation fuels by 2030.

與這些價值觀一致的是我們對永續性的關注。我們將繼續大力努力、創新和運營，讓世界變得更美好。透過擴大節能和再生能源的使用，同時利用負責任的補償措施來抵消剩餘的溫室氣體排放，我們在 2020 年實現了製造和工作現場的淨碳排放——淨零碳排放。此外，我們承諾，到 2030 年，我們的商用飛機將能夠並獲得認證，使用 100% 可持續航空燃料飛行。

Operational excellence is about how we work to deliver safe products and services to our customers while continuously striving for first-time quality. We are also taking steps to restore the health of our production system. As we calibrate our production rates to the market impacts of COVID-19, we're taking the opportunity to implement quality, workplace safety and productivity improvement projects to bring stability to our factories. And as Greg will cover later, this also extends to our engagement with suppliers.

卓越營運是指我們如何努力為客戶提供安全的產品和服務，同時不斷追求首次品質。我們也正在採取措施恢復生產系統的健康。當我們根據 COVID-19 對市場的影響調整生產率時，我們正在藉此機會實施品質、工作場所安全和生產力改進項目，為我們的工廠帶來穩定。正如 Greg 稍後將介紹的那樣，這也延伸到了我們與供應商的合作。

And last but not least, we will not lose sight of our future and the innovations that will reshape air travel. We continue to invest in our areas that are critical to our business, focusing on design practices and manufacturing technology that will position us for growth.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們不會忽視我們的未來以及重塑航空旅行的創新。我們將繼續投資於對我們的業務至關重要的領域，重點是能夠幫助我們實現成長的設計實踐和製造技術。

We're also continuing to invest in our people. We recently announced that we will be providing most of our employees a onetime stock grant that will vest in 3 years as we recover and grow the business.

我們也將繼續對我們的員工進行投資。我們最近宣布，我們將向大多數員工提供一次性股票贈予，隨著我們業務的恢復和發展，該贈予將在 3 年後歸屬。

To close, our guiding principle here is that every decision we must -- that we make must help us navigate through this difficult period while not diminishing our future competitiveness. We will take action to protect our business and our people by closely managing liquidity and driving lasting transformational change to make our business stronger and more resilient than ever.

最後，我們的指導原則是，我們所做的每一個決定都必須幫助我們度過這個困難時期，同時又不削弱我們未來的競爭力。我們將採取行動保護我們的業務和員工，密切管理流動性並推動持久的轉型變革，使我們的業務比以往任何時候都更加強大和更具彈性。

And with that, let me turn it over to Greg. Greg?

現在，讓我把麥克風交給格雷格。格雷格？

Great. Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn now to Slide 6. Our revenue of $58.2 billion and core earnings per share of negative $23.25 reflected lower commercial delivery and service volume primarily due to COVID-19 as well as 787 production issues, partially offset by lower 737 MAX customer consideration charges when compared to 2019.

偉大的。謝謝，戴夫，大家早安。現在讓我們翻到投影片 6。我們的收入為 582 億美元，每股核心收益為負 23.25 美元，這反映了商業交付和服務量的下降，這主要是由於 COVID-19 以及 787 生產問題造成的，但與 2019 年相比，737 MAX 客戶對價費用較低，部分抵消了這一影響。

Full year earnings were also impacted by the $6.5 billion pretax charge on the 777X program, additional tax valuation allowance and abnormal production costs related to the 737 MAX program. Operating cash flow of negative $18.4 billion reflected lower commercial deliveries and service volume as well as timing of receipts and expenditures.

777X 項目的 65 億美元稅前費用、額外的稅收估價準備以及與 737 MAX 項目相關的異常生產成本也對全年收益產生了影響。經營現金流為負 184 億美元，反映出商業交付和服務量以及收支時間的減少。

With that, let's turn to Slide 7 for our fourth quarter results. Consistent with the full year results, revenue of $15.3 billion reflected lower commercial airplane deliveries and commercial service volume, partially offset by a lower 737 MAX customer consideration charge. Earnings in the quarter were also impacted by the charge on the 777X program, a $744 million charge related to the previously announced agreement between Boeing and the U.S. Department of Justice and 737 abnormal production costs.

接下來，讓我們翻到投影片 7 查看我們的第四季業績。與全年業績一致，153 億美元的營收反映了商用飛機交付量和商用服務量的下降，但被 737 MAX 客戶對價費用的降低部分抵消。本季的收益也受到 777X 項目費用的影響，這是一項 7.44 億美元的費用，與波音和美國司法部先前宣布的協議以及 737 異常生產成本有關。

Income tax in the quarter reflected the impact of an additional valuation allowance on deferred income tax assets, partially offset by the 5-year net operating loss carryback provision in the CARES Act. The $2.5 billion of noncash valuation allowance booked in the quarter was based on the required accounting analysis to assess recoverability of our deferred tax assets against future sources of taxable income. This is an accounting assessment, which places a lot of weight on our recent losses leading to the charge this quarter.

本季的所得稅反映了額外估值準備金對遞延所得稅資產的影響，但被《關懷法案》中的 5 年淨營業虧損結轉條款部分抵銷。本季提列的 25 億美元非現金估值準備金是基於所需的會計分析，以評估我們的遞延稅項資產相對於未來應稅收入來源的可收回性。這是一項會計評估，它對我們最近的損失給予了極大的重視，導致了本季的費用。

Important to note that this valuation allowance does not limit our ability to utilize deferred tax assets in the future periods. It does not change our outlook on future company results and has no impact on cash flows or future tax returns. When income generation returns to more normal levels, we can expect to see the allowance reverse and increase reported earnings.

值得注意的是，該估值準備金並未限制我們在未來期間利用遞延所得稅資產的能力。它不會改變我們對未來公司業績的展望，也不會對現金流或未來的報稅產生影響。當收入恢復到更正常的水平時，我們可以預期看到津貼逆轉並增加報告的收入。

Let's now move to Commercial Airplanes on Slide 8. Revenue was $4.7 billion driven by lower widebody delivery volume, partially offset by higher 737 deliveries and a lower 737 MAX customer consideration charge in the quarter compared to the same period last year. Operating margins declined driven by the charge on the 777X program, lower delivery volume and a $468 million of abnormal production costs related to the 737 program, again, partially offset by lower 737 MAX customer consideration charge.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 上的商用飛機。營收為 47 億美元，受寬體交付量下降的影響，但與去年同期相比，本季 737 交付量增加和 737 MAX 客戶對價費用降低部分抵消了這一影響。營業利潤率下降的原因是 777X 項目的費用、交付量的下降以及與 737 項目相關的 4.68 億美元的異常生產成本，但又被 737 MAX 客戶對價費用的降低部分抵消。

As Dave mentioned, we began to receive regulatory approvals to resume 737 MAX operations in the fourth quarter, and we restarted 737 MAX deliveries in December last year. Last quarter, we shared with you that we had about 450 737 MAX aircraft built and stored in inventory. With deliveries of 27 aircraft in December and now 40 to date, this number has been reduced to approximately 410 aircraft in inventory.

正如戴夫所提到的，我們在第四季度開始獲得恢復 737 MAX 營運的監管部門批准，並於去年 12 月重新開始 737 MAX 的交付。上個季度，我們曾與大家分享過，我們已製造並儲存了約 450 架 737 MAX 飛機。12 月共交付了 27 架飛機，目前已交付 40 架，庫存飛機數量已減少至約 410 架。

As we previously communicated, we expect to have to remarket some of these aircraft and potentially reconfigure them. Deliveries from storage will continue to be our priority after assisting our customers with their return to service as we continue to work closely with our customers based on their fleet needs.

正如我們之前所傳達的，我們預計將重新銷售其中一些飛機並可能對其進行重新配置。在幫助客戶恢復服務後，從倉庫出貨仍將是我們的首要任務，我們將繼續根據客戶的車隊需求與他們密切合作。

Our estimated timing of 737 deliveries from storage has not changed since last quarter. That said, we expect delivery timing and production rate ramp-up profile to continue to be dynamic given the pandemic.

自上個季度以來，我們對 737 架飛機從倉庫交付的預計時間沒有改變。儘管如此，鑑於疫情的影響，我們預計交貨時間和生產力提升情況將持續保持動態變化。

There are no material change to our estimate total abnormal costs of $5 billion. During the fourth quarter, we expensed $468 million of abnormal production costs, which brought the cumulative abnormal cost expensed to date to $2.6 billion. We expect the remainder of this cost to be expensed as incurred largely in 2021.

我們估計的 50 億美元總異常成本沒有重大變化。第四季度，我們支出了 4.68 億美元的異常生產成本，這使得迄今為止的累積異常成本支出達到 26 億美元。我們預計該成本的剩餘部分將主要在 2021 年作為費用支出。

Our assessment of the liability for estimated 737 MAX potential concessions and other considerations to customers and the expected cash impact timing did not change significantly in the fourth quarter from our previous assessment. Cumulatively, we've accrued a $9.6 billion liability for the estimated potential concessions and other considerations.

我們對 737 MAX 潛在優惠和其他對客戶考慮的責任以及預期現金影響時間的評估在第四季度與我們先前的評估相比沒有發生重大變化。累計起來，我們已為預計的潛在讓步和其他考慮承擔了 96 億美元的債務。

To date, we've made $3.7 billion of payments to customers in cash and other forms of compensation, including $600 million we paid this quarter. We have settlement agreements covering approximately $3 billion of the remaining liability balance of $5 billion.

迄今為止，我們已向客戶支付了 37 億美元現金和其他形式的補償，其中包括本季支付的 6 億美元。我們已達成和解協議，涵蓋剩餘 50 億美元負債餘額中的約 30 億美元。

Turning now to 787. As we've discussed, we continue to complete the inspections on our 787 program in our factories and in our supply chain. We have approximately 80 undelivered 787 aircraft in inventory. Based on what we know today, we anticipate that we will unwind the vast majority of these aircraft during '21 and are working with our customers to facilitate this.

現在轉向 787。正如我們所討論的，我們將繼續在我們的工廠和供應鏈中完成 787 項目的檢查。我們庫存中還有大約 80 架未交付的 787 飛機。根據我們目前掌握的情況，我們預計在 21 年期間將解散絕大多數飛機，並正在與我們的客戶合作以促成此事。

But as Dave mentioned, we still have some work ahead of us on this, and we will keep you posted on the progress. Our latest assessment of the financial impact of this effort and delivery delays have been included in our fourth quarter closing position.

但正如戴夫所提到的，我們在這方面還有一些工作要做，我們隨時會向您通報進度。我們對此項努力和交付延遲的財務影響的最新評估已納入我們的第四季度結帳狀況。

As we've previously disclosed, the 787 program has near breakeven gross margins due to the previously announced reductions in production rates and program accounting quantity. If we are required to further reduce the accounting quantity and/or production rates or experience other factors that could result in lower margin, the program could reach forward loss in future periods. However, on a cash basis, the 787 unit margin has held up relatively well even with these lower production rates, and many of the underlying productivity and profitability drivers remain in place.

正如我們之前所揭露的，由於先前宣布的生產力和項目會計數量的削減，787 項目的毛利率已接近盈虧平衡。如果我們需要進一步降低會計數量和/或生產力，或遇到其他可能導致利潤率降低的因素，該計劃可能會在未來期間出現遠期虧損。然而，從現金角度來看，即使生產力較低，787 單位利潤率仍然保持相對較好，並且許多潛在的生產力和獲利能力驅動因素仍然存在。

As Dave mentioned, we expect first delivery of the 777X to now occur in late 2023, and we recorded a $6.5 billion reach-forward loss on the program. Our decision to implement certain modifications to the aircraft design has added time to the schedule and result in additional costs.

正如戴夫所提到的，我們預計 777X 的首次交付將於 2023 年底進行，並且我們在該項目上記錄了 65 億美元的預期損失。我們決定對飛機設計進行某些修改，這增加了時間並導致了額外的成本。

In addition to that factor, other key elements contributing to the reach-forward loss include the following: one, an updated assessment of the market demand and customers' preferences on delivery timing based on continued dialogue with our customers; two, resulting adjustments to planned production rates and reduction in program accounting quantity to 350 aircraft.

除此因素外，其他造成前瞻性損失的關鍵因素包括：一、基於與客戶的持續對話，對市場需求和客戶對交貨時間的偏好進行更新評估；二、由此導致的計畫生產力調整和項目會計數量減少至 350 架飛機。

As a reminder, initial accounting quantity doesn't represent the long-term potential size of the program. We see replacement demand for over 1,500 larger widebody aircraft, which will be well suited to the 777X. The approach we used to establish the accounting quantity is consistent with what we've used on other programs. And as part of our closing process, we always evaluate the initial accounting quantity on a quarterly basis even in program development to test that the program is not in a reach-forward loss position.

需要提醒的是，初始會計數量並不代表該計劃的長期潛在規模。我們看到超過 1,500 架大型寬體飛機的替換需求，這些飛機將非常適合 777X。我們用來確定會計數量的方法與我們在其他程序中使用的方法一致。作為結帳流程的一部分，即使在程序開發過程中，我們也會按季度評估初始會計數量，以測試程序是否處於預期損失狀態。

And lastly, other cost elements include increased change in corporation costs along with associated customer and supply chain impacts. The combination of these factors created significant pressure on the 777X program's revenue and cost estimates, resulting in the reach-forward loss for the program.

最後，其他成本因素包括公司成本變化的增加以及相關的客戶和供應鏈影響。這些因素的綜合作用給 777X 項目的收入和成本估算帶來了巨大壓力，導致該項目出現未來損失。

We still expect peak use of cash for the 777X program to be in 2020. The changes to the 777X program time line will result in some cash flow headwinds in '21 and '22. But we expect cash flow to improve as we get closer to EIS and begin deliveries in late '23. We anticipate the program to turn cash flow positive approximately 1 to 2 years after starting initial deliveries.

我們仍預期 777X 專案的現金使用高峰將在 2020 年。777X 專案時間表的變化將導致 21 年和 22 年出現一些現金流阻力。但我們預計，隨著我們接近 EIS 並在 23 年底開始交付，現金流將會改善。我們預計該計劃將在首次交付後約 1 至 2 年內實現現金流為正。

Commercial Airplanes backlog included more than 4,000 aircraft valued at $282 billion. The decline in backlog in the fourth quarter reflected aircraft order cancellations and removal of aircraft orders from our backlog due to ASC 606 accounting standard, including our most recent assessment of 777X backlog due to the revised schedule.

商用飛機積壓訂單包括 4,000 多架飛機，價值 2,820 億美元。第四季度積壓訂單的下降反映了飛機訂單取消以及根據 ASC 606 會計準則從積壓訂單中刪除飛機訂單，包括我們最近對因修訂時間表而導致的 777X 積壓訂單的評估。

Given the significant headwinds that remain in the market, BCA margin progression will be highly dependent upon future production rates and will take time. However, we are taking action today to make foundational lasting change through our business transformation efforts in order to help offset those headwinds as much as possible.

鑑於市場仍面臨巨大阻力，BCA 利潤率的成長將高度依賴未來的生產力，並且需要時間。然而，我們今天正在採取行動，透過業務轉型努力實現根本性的持久變革，以盡可能地抵消這些不利因素。

Let's now move to Defense, Space & Security on Slide 9. Fourth quarter revenue increased to $6.8 billion primarily driven by higher volume as well as a charge on the Commercial Crew program in the fourth quarter of 2019. Fourth quarter operating margins of 7.4% include $275 million pretax charge on the KC-46A Tanker program primarily due to production inefficiencies, including the impacts of COVID-19 disruption. We received $5 billion in orders in the quarter, including a contract for 2 KC-46A aircraft from Japan, AEW&C upgrades for the Republic of Korea Air Force and key proprietary space programs, bringing the backlog now to $61 billion.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 上的國防、太空和安全。第四季營收增加至 68 億美元，主要原因是銷量增加以及 2019 年第四季商業乘員計畫的費用。第四季營業利潤率為 7.4%，其中包括 KC-46A 加油機專案的 2.75 億美元稅前費用，這主要是由於生產效率低下，包括 COVID-19 中斷的影響。本季度我們收到了價值 50 億美元的訂單，其中包括來自日本的 2 架 KC-46A 飛機合約、韓國空軍的 AEW&C 升級以及關鍵的專有空間計劃，使積壓訂單總額達到 610 億美元。

Let's now turn to Global Services results on Slide 10. In the fourth quarter, Global Services revenue declined to $3.7 billion driven by lower commercial services volume due to COVID-19. Operating margins decreased to 3.8% due to lower commercial service volume and $290 million of pretax charges related to asset impairments primarily to reflect the updated fleet retirement assumptions driven by COVID.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 10 上的全球服務結果。第四季度，由於新冠疫情導致商業服務量下降，全球服務收入下降至 37 億美元。由於商業服務量下降以及與資產減損相關的 2.9 億美元稅前費用（主要是為了反映 COVID 推動的最新機隊退役假設），營業利潤率下降至 3.8%。

During the quarter, BGS won key contracts worth approximately $7 billion, which brings its backlog now to $21 billion. Although we saw a slight uptick in commercial service demand in the fourth quarter, we continue to expect the recovery to take multiple years.

本季度，BGS 贏得了價值約 70 億美元的關鍵合同，這使得其積壓訂單價值達到 210 億美元。儘管我們看到第四季度商業服務需求略有上升，但我們仍然預計復甦將需要數年時間。

We continue to position our services business for the future, taking actions to rightsize our operations. In addition, we are shaping our portfolio to ensure that we have the right solutions to help our customers and industry navigate the downturn and prepare for market recovery. The result of our efforts have already started to positively impact our operating margin performance.

我們將繼續為未來服務業務做好定位，並採取行動調整我們的營運規模。此外，我們正在調整我們的產品組合，以確保我們擁有正確的解決方案來幫助我們的客戶和行業度過經濟衰退並為市場復甦做好準備。我們的努力成果已經開始對我們的營業利潤率表現產生正面影響。

Let's now turn to cash flow on Slide 11. The disruption caused by COVID-19 on our airlines and global economy continues to put significant pressure on our cash receipts. Operating cash flow for the quarter was negative $4 billion driven by lower commercial airplane delivery volume, advanced payment timing and commercial service volume.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 11 上的現金流。COVID-19 對我們的航空公司和全球經濟造成的破壞繼續給我們的現金收入帶來巨大壓力。本季營運現金流為負 40 億美元，原因是商用飛機交付量、預付款時間和商業服務量下降。

Let's now move to Slide 12 to discuss our liquidity position. We continue to proactively manage our cash position and assess our liquidity throughout this pandemic. We ended the fourth quarter with strong liquidity, including $25.6 billion of cash and marketable securities on our balance sheet and have access to our $9.5 billion bank credit facility, which remains undrawn as well continued access to capital markets. Our debt balance at the end of the quarter was $63.6 billion, reflecting our $4.9 billion bond issuance as well as debt repayments in the quarter.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 12 來討論我們的流動性狀況。在整個疫情期間，我們將繼續積極管理我們的現金狀況並評估我們的流動性。我們在第四季結束時擁有強大的流動性，包括資產負債表上的 256 億美元現金和有價證券，並且可以使用 95 億美元的銀行信貸額度（尚未提取），還可以繼續進入資本市場。本季末我們的債務餘額為 636 億美元，反映了我們本季發行的 49 億美元債券以及償還的債務。

As we've discussed previously, we've been taking many actions to enhance liquidity, including suspending our dividend; reducing discretionary spending; matching 401(k) contributions in stock, prefunding pension with stock; and most recently, awarding most of our employees a onetime stock grant that will vest in 3 years in lieu of merit increases this year. These actions reflect our continued derisking strategy and are part of our balanced approach to ensuring we're proactively meeting our obligations.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們一直在採取許多措施來增強流動性，包括暫停派發股息；減少可自由支配的開支；以股票匹配 401(k) 供款，用股票預先為養老金提供資金；最近，我們向大多數員工授予一次性股票獎勵，該獎勵將在 3 年後歸屬，以代替今年的績效加薪。這些行動反映了我們持續的風險降低策略，也是我們確保積極履行義務的平衡方法的一部分。

We worked hard in the past to maintain disciplined cash management while seeking opportunities to strengthen our balance sheet, and we will continue to do so. Once cash flow generation returns to more normal levels, reducing our debt levels will be a key focus area.

過去，我們努力保持嚴格的現金管理，同時尋找機會加強我們的資產負債表，我們將繼續這樣做。一旦現金流產生恢復到更正常的水平，降低債務水平將是一個重點關注的領域。

We believe we currently have sufficient liquidity and are not planning to increase our debt levels. However, we will continue to actively manage our balance sheet, including refinancing debt maturities.

我們相信我們目前擁有充足的流動性並且不打算增加我們的債務水平。然而，我們將繼續積極管理我們的資產負債表，包括再融資債務到期。

Our investment-grade credit rating is important to us, and we'll continue to consider all aspects of our capital structure to strengthen our balance sheet.

我們的投資等級信用評級對我們很重要，我們將繼續考慮資本結構的各個方面以加強我們的資產負債表。

Let's turn to the next slide. As we look forward into '21, I'd like to provide you with some insight into some of the key drivers, which are informed by the current market recovery expectations and customer discussions to date. 2021 will continue to be a challenging year. That said, we expect upward trends from 2020.

讓我們翻到下一張投影片。展望 21 年，我想向您提供一些關鍵驅動因素的見解，這些因素是根據當前市場復甦預期和迄今為止的客戶討論得出的。2021年仍將是充滿挑戰的一年。話雖如此，我們預計從 2020 年開始將呈現上升趨勢。

Based on what we know, we'd expect to see 2021 revenue improve from 2020. This will be driven mainly by higher 737 and 787 deliveries as we plan to unwind inventory and deliver from the production lines.

根據我們所知，我們預計 2021 年的收入將比 2020 年有所提高。這將主要受到 737 和 787 交付量增加的推動，因為我們計劃清理庫存並從生產線上交付。

We expect BDS to generate low to single-digit growth in '21 revenue compared to 2020. Excluding onetime events, we anticipate modest revenue growth.

我們預計，與 2020 年相比，BDS 在 21 年的收入將實現低至個位數的成長。除一次性事件外，我們預計收入將適度增長。

As for BGS, while we anticipate solid growth in our government services business in '21, our commercial services will continue to be challenged due to COVID-19 impacts. [We expect] BGS revenue to be relatively stable '21 versus 2020.

至於 BGS，雖然我們預計 21 年我們的政府服務業務將穩健成長，但由於 COVID-19 的影響，我們的商業服務將繼續面臨挑戰。[我們預期] 2021 年 BGS 收入將與 2020 年相比相對穩定。

On the P&L side, we also expect improvement in '21 primarily driven by higher commercial deliveries, absence of 2020 charges, improved performance and benefits from continued business transformation efforts. These impacts will be primarily offset by higher interest expense. Also (inaudible) BCA will continue to book significant abnormal production costs for the 737 program in 2021.

在損益方面，我們也預期 21 年業績將有所改善，這主要得益於商業交付量的增加、2020 年沒有收費、業績改善以及持續的業務轉型努力帶來的好處。這些影響將主要被更高的利息支出所抵消。此外（聽不清楚）BCA 將繼續在 2021 年為 737 項目提列大量異常生產成本。

Moving to cash flow. We continue to expect 2021 operating cash to be much improved from 2020 driven mainly by inventory burn down associated with 737 and 787 programs. While higher deliveries will be a tailwind, the timing of advanced payments and burn down of excess advance payments, along with 737 customer settlement payments and higher interest payments, will continue to be headwinds. The revised 777X schedule also creates headwind to our current cash profile versus our prior assumptions.

轉向現金流。我們繼續預期 2021 年的營運現金將比 2020 年大幅改善，主要原因是與 737 和 787 項目相關的庫存消耗。雖然交付量增加將帶來順風，但預付款的時間表和超額預付款的消耗，以及 737 名客戶的結算付款和更高的利息支付，將繼續帶來逆風。修改後的 777X 計劃也對我們目前的現金狀況（與我們先前的假設相比）造成了不利影響。

Bringing this all together, based on what we know today, we continue to expect 2021 to still be a use of cash and to be cash flow positive in 2022. We expect cash improvements from '21 to '22 to be driven by continued improvement on the 737 program due to lower customer considerations and higher delivery payments as well as commercial services.

綜合以上所有情況，根據我們目前掌握的信息，我們預計 2021 年仍將使用現金，2022 年現金流將為正值。我們預計，21 年至 22 年的現金改善將受到 737 計畫持續改善的推動，因為客戶考慮減少、交付付款和商業服務增加。

And as I just outlined, our commercial delivery volume is a key driver for improvements from 2020 to 2021. Therefore, the drivers clearly hinge on the pace of commercial market recovery. Given the dynamic environment, we will continue to diligently work opportunities and monitor risk factors and keep you posted on further developments.

正如我剛才所概述的，我們的商業交付量是 2020 年至 2021 年改進的關鍵驅動力。因此，驅動因素顯然取決於商業市場復甦的速度。鑑於動態環境，我們將繼續努力尋找機會、監控風險因素並隨時向您通報進一步的發展。

Now let's move to the last slide. Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have taken prudent and decisive action to get ahead, to preserve cash so that we can navigate this crisis and also reshape our business so that we can emerge as a sharper, resilient, leaner enterprise. In addition to taking actions to derisk our portfolio and bolster liquidity, we have also made operational changes to lower our production rates and adjust our workforce to align with the new market reality.

現在讓我們來看最後一張投影片。自從疫情爆發以來，我們採取了審慎果斷的行動，以取得進展，保留現金，以便我們能夠度過這場危機，並重塑我們的業務，使我們成為一家更敏銳、更有韌性、更精簡的企業。除了採取行動降低投資組合風險和增強流動性之外，我們還進行了營運變革，以降低生產力並調整勞動力以適應新的市場現實。

We have taken production rates for the 787 and 777 programs down by approximately half due to COVID impact and also moderated the ramp of the 737 production rate. We continue to take steps to reach our previously shared plan to bring our overall staffing levels to approximately 130,000 by the end of '21.

由於 COVID 的影響，我們已將 787 和 777 項目的生產率降低了約一半，並且還減緩了 737 生產率的增長。我們將繼續採取措施，實現我們先前製定的計劃，到 21 年底，我們的總員工人數將達到約 13 萬人。

As you know, we are progressing through extensive business transformation efforts that are introduced [some] quarters ago. The financial objectives we've established are measured in billions of dollars, and we expect them to be executed over a multiyear period.

如您所知，我們正在推動幾個季度前推出的廣泛業務轉型工作。我們所訂定的財務目標以數十億美元計，我們預計這些目標將在多年內實現。

We expect the majority of our efforts will result in enduring lasting changes that will enable us to be more efficient in the long term, laying the foundation for recovery, future margin expansion and cash flow generation as the market recovers. A combination of all of our actions in 2020 helped us generate more than $10 billion of liquidity, which was (inaudible) as we navigate this very challenging environment. Approximately half of our transformation efforts are focused on reducing structural costs versus variable.

我們預計，我們的大部分努力將帶來持久的變化，這將使我們在長期內更加高效，為市場復甦、未來利潤率擴大和現金流產生奠定基礎。我們在 2020 年採取的所有行動幫助我們創造了超過 100 億美元的流動資金，這對於我們應對這個極具挑戰性的環境至關重要。我們的轉型工作大約有一半集中在降低結構性成本而非變動成本。

We continue to make progress across all 5 pillars as we utilize a low production rate environment to transform and improve our business processes. Projects to improve operational stability, implement first-time quality initiatives shape our portfolio with core markets, simplify our organizational structure and reduce bureaucracy are all examples of efforts meant to create meaningful and lasting change to how we operate as well as our cost structure.

我們利用低生產力環境來轉變和改善業務流程，並在所有五大支柱上繼續取得進展。提高營運穩定性、實施首次品質計劃、塑造我們的核心市場投資組合、簡化我們的組織結構和減少官僚主義的項目都是旨在對我們的運營方式和成本結構進行有意義和持久的改變的努力的例子。

Through our portfolio and investment prioritization, we reduced R&D and CapEx by $1.3 billion in '20 from prior year. We also took out over $1 billion of indirect (inaudible) reducing expenditures in areas such as freight logistics, purchase, services (inaudible).

透過我們的投資組合和投資優先排序，我們在 20 年的研發和資本支出比前一年減少了 13 億美元。我們也拿出了超過 10 億美元的間接（聽不清楚）來減少貨運物流、採購、服務（聽不清楚）等領域的支出。

And as part of our footprint optimization, we sold or closed over 240,000 square (inaudible) [over the next year]. There are a number of other initiatives (inaudible).

作為我們足跡優化的一部分，我們在接下來的一年裡出售或關閉了超過 240,000 平方英尺（聽不清楚）的空間。還有許多其他舉措（聽不清楚）。

While we talk often about our transformation at the operational production level, every support organization in our company is on this journey. Our team, the human resources, finance, IT and more are all recalibrating their structures and operating models to simplify processes, eliminate unnecessary spending, reduce bureaucracy and improve long-term performance and competitiveness.

雖然我們經常談論營運生產層面的轉型，但我們公司的每個支援組織都處於這段旅程中。我們的團隊、人力資源、財務、IT 等部門都在重新調整其結構和營運模式，以簡化流程、消除不必要的開支、減少官僚主義並提高長期績效和競爭力。

For example, we have been (inaudible) providing opportunities to form or expand strategic partnerships with vendors that allow us to simplify and optimize our operations and reduce overall costs. We're also evolving the way we work with our [12,000] suppliers. This began with our Boeing supplier (inaudible), which expanded (inaudible) can strengthen the relationship, yield improvement in quality, affordability, performance, on-time delivery. These principles are built on success, feedback and (inaudible) throughout our supply chain.

例如，我們一直在（聽不清楚）提供機會與供應商建立或擴大策略合作夥伴關係，這使我們能夠簡化和優化我們的營運並降低整體成本。我們也正在改進與 [12,000] 家供應商的合作方式。這始於我們的波音供應商（聽不清楚），擴大（聽不清楚）可以加強關係，提高品質、可負擔性、性能和準時交貨。這些原則建立在我們整個供應鏈的成功、回饋和（聽不清楚）之上。

And as we take action, we're ensuring that every step only further drives key [improvements] and efforts in safety, quality and [delivery, building on our] commitments. We've got the right team in place, and we're confident that we have the right actions put together, all supporting our future and our competitiveness.

當我們採取行動時，我們確保每一步只會進一步推動安全、品質和[交付，建立在我們的]承諾方面的關鍵[改進]和努力。我們擁有合適的團隊，我們相信我們已採取正確的行動，所有這些都將支持我們的未來和競爭力。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Dave for some closing comments.

說完這些，我將把話題交還給戴夫，請他發表一些結束語。

Yes. Thanks, Greg. Listen, 2020 was a year like no other. Our world, our industry, our business and our communities were facing unprecedented challenges, and we're still in the midst of it.

是的。謝謝，格雷格。聽著，2020 年是個與眾不同的一年。我們的世界、我們的產業、我們的企業和我們的社區正面臨前所未有的挑戰，而我們仍處於其中。

In addition to navigating COVID-19, we also made important progress on the 737 as we engage transparently and comprehensively with regulators, government leaders, customers, suppliers and our teams. Having done that, we'll be that much more prepared for airplane certification efforts going forward.

除了應對 COVID-19 之外，我們還在 737 方面取得了重要進展，因為我們與監管機構、政府領導、客戶、供應商和我們的團隊進行了透明和全面的接觸。完成這些之後，我們將為未來的飛機認證工作做更充分的準備。

The return to service of the 737 was a key step for us as we make fundamental changes to how we operate and rebuild trust one airplane, one interaction, one day at a time. I'm proud of our team, and I thank them for the resilience and dedication that they've demonstrated as we've navigated through this really difficult moment together.

737 恢復營運對我們來說是關鍵的一步，因為我們將從根本上改變我們的營運方式，並透過一架飛機、一次互動、一天一天地重建信任。我為我們的團隊感到驕傲，並感謝他們在我們共同度過這個非常困難的時刻時所表現出的韌性和奉獻精神。

2021 is an inflection point for our industry and certainly for Boeing. We have been through tough times before. We know how to overcome challenges and to adapt, and we will stand by our customers throughout this process. Driven by our values and with a focus on quality, safety, integrity and transparency, we will emerge from this moment stronger, more competitive for the long term.

2021 年是我們產業的轉捩點，當然也是波音公司的轉捩點。我們以前也經歷過艱難時期。我們知道如何克服挑戰並適應，我們將在整個過程中支持我們的客戶。在我們的價值觀的驅動下，並專注於品質、安全、誠信和透明度，我們將從此刻起變得更加強大，並具有長期競爭力。

And with that, Greg and I will be happy to take a few questions. Thank you.

格雷格和我很樂意回答幾個問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Carter Copeland with Melius Research.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Carter Copeland。

Greg, I wondered if you could just give us some more color on the $6.5 billion on the 777X and how much of that was the accounting quantity. You mentioned 350 units, but I don't think you've mentioned what that changed from. I don't know if that was 500 or what that number was. So just give us a sense of how big that was and how it compares to the other pieces, be it change in corp and the modifications that you mentioned or customer settlements.

格雷格，我想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於 777X 的 65 億美元的詳細信息，以及其中有多少是會計金額。您提到了 350 個單位，但我認為您沒有提到它從何而來。我不知道那是不是 500 或那個數字是多少。因此，請讓我們了解這有多大，以及它與其他部分相比如何，無論是公司的變化和您提到的修改還是客戶結算。

Yes, yes, absolutely. Yes. I kind of put it into 4 major categories. Certainly, the planned production rates associated with the schedule move and, as you said, the reduction in the accounting quantity. And as I mentioned, every quarter, we go through this assessment.

是的，是的，絕對是。是的。我把它分為四大類。當然，與計劃相關的計劃生產力會發生變化，而且正如您所說，會計數量也會減少。正如我所提到的，每個季度我們都會進行這種評估。

But as a result of what we're seeing in the marketplace and with the current pandemic as well as kind of how we're seeing the marketplace shift in the near term, we reduced our assumptions around the accounting quantity for this quarter. But again, pretty consistent from -- certainly consistent process, but pretty consistent with what we've seen on some of the other programs when we've established an accounting quantity.

但根據我們在市場上看到的情況以及當前的疫情以及我們看到的短期市場變化，我們降低了對本季會計數量的假設。但同樣，這非常一致 - 當然是一致的過程，但與我們在建立會計數量時在其他一些程序上看到的情況非常一致。

And then, of course, we talked about change in corp costs for the aircraft that are currently built as well as we'll have the rate much lower through this period between now and '23 and the change in corp associated with those. And I'd say last one would be customer and supply chain impacts considering the delays. Single, I'd say, largest one in there, Carter, is around the accounting quantity.

然後，當然，我們討論了目前建造的飛機的公司成本變化，以及從現在到 23 年期間我們的費率會低得多，以及與此相關的公司成本變化。我想說最後一個因素是延遲對客戶和供應鏈的影響。我想說，其中最大的一個，卡特，就是會計數量。

Okay. So those were in order -- rank order? And then just can you give us a sense of how much of a decrease in the accounting quantity that -- the move to 350 represented?

好的。那麼這些是按順序排列的嗎？那麼，您能否告訴我們，會計數量降至 350 代表著減少了多少？

Yes. From prior quarter, we had 50 additional units in there. So we had a quantity of 400 units.

是的。與上一季相比，我們在那裡增加了 50 個單位。因此我們的數量為 400 個單位。

It's -- the only other point is it's really important to know that the 50 that moved out are the ones at the tail end, and those are where cash margins are significant. So you end up with a little bit of a double whammy there.

唯一的另一點是，真正重要的是要知道，離開的 50 家公司是處於最後階段的公司，而這些公司的現金利潤率很高。所以你最終會遭遇雙重打擊。

Our next question is from Myles Walton with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Myles Walton。

On the 787, Greg, I think in early December, you were looking for a restart of deliveries into year-end. Obviously, there must have been some incremental discoveries and rechecking. So just curious, what's the level of confidence now versus then? And then also, is there any FAA requirement for sign-off on what you're looking to do and approved prior to the restart of deliveries?

關於 787，格雷格，我想在 12 月初，您希望在年底重新開始交付。顯然，肯定有一些漸進的發現和重新檢查。所以只是好奇，現在的信心水準與當時相比如何？另外，在重新開始交付之前，聯邦航空管理局是否要求簽署並批准您要做的事情？

Yes. I mean I'd put it into a couple of categories. One of which is some of the inspections have taken longer, and they've also expanded for complete thoroughness across not only our factories but in the supply chain. So that's taken longer.

是的。我的意思是我會把它分成幾個類別。其中之一是，一些檢查耗時更長，而且檢查範圍也擴大到不僅在我們的工廠，而且在整個供應鏈中，以確保徹底性。所以這花了更長的時間。

Look, from day 1, we've been engaged with the FAA and continue to be engaged as we work through this process. And we'll continue to [rate up] until we're ready to resume deliveries. So complete transparency there, of course, and clarity around what we're doing, how we're doing it and the path to recovery, again, when we resume deliveries. I don't know, Dave, if you had anything you want to add.

你看，從第一天起，我們就一直與美國聯邦航空局合作，並在這過程中繼續保持合作。我們將繼續[提高速度]，直到我們準備好恢復交付。因此，當然，這裡是完全透明的，並且清楚我們在做什麼、如何做以及當我們恢復交付時恢復的途徑。我不知道，戴夫，您是否還有什麼要補充的。

Well, there's -- there won't be a formal sign-off in that regard. But without a doubt, we will make sure the FAA is comfortable with every act we've taken.

嗯，在這方面不會有正式的簽名。但毫無疑問，我們將確保美國聯邦航空局對我們採取的每項行動感到滿意。

And I'll only add the comment that this expansion of inspection and quality assurance and all those things, maybe I'll take a hit on that one. But this is a moment where we get to fix some things and do some things the way we would like to do them. And so I have put very little pressure on the production and engineering team to resolve things too quickly. I want it to be thorough and done, and I want to prevent future rework around this stuff.

我只想補充一點，對於檢查和品質保證的擴展以及所有這些事情，我可能會受到打擊。但此刻，我們需要解決一些問題，並以我們想要的方式去做一些事情。因此，我很少對生產和工程團隊施加壓力，要求他們盡快解決問題。我希望它能夠徹底完成，並且我希望避免將來圍繞這個內容進行返工。

And I have to tell you, these specs are incredibly exacting. So I'm proud of the design principles that we've used in it. But anyway, we're just -- probably take stepping it up a bit.

我必須告訴你，這些規格非常嚴格。所以我對我們在其中採用的設計原則感到自豪。但無論如何，我們只是——可能需要稍微加強一下。

Next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Greg, there's a lot of debate out there about the aircraft unit margins a few years down the road when things are a little bit more normal. The 777 is in a -- is obviously in a unique situation. But with the MAX and the 787, there are questions about if you're having to give on price on the MAX and then if these really impressive cash margins you had for a while and the 87 can hold it at the lower rate. So I wonder if you could spend a little bit of time on that. I mean how can we think about where those airplane margins can be a few years down the road at more normal rates compared to prepandemic, pregrounding?

格雷格，當情況稍微正常一些時，人們對幾年後飛機單位的利潤率有很多爭論。777 顯然處於一種獨特的境地。但對於 MAX 和 787，存在一些問題，例如是否必須在 MAX 上做出價格讓步，以及 MAX 和 787 能否以較低的價格保持其在一段時間內的令人印象深刻的現金利潤率。所以我想知道您是否可以花一點時間來討論這個問題。我的意思是，與疫情爆發前、停飛前相比，我們如何想像幾年後這些飛機的利潤率會達到更正常的水平？

Yes. I mean, clearly, as you said, volume is going to play -- is going to be key in that. So as we've talked about, as we see 737 increasing in production and delivery, that's going to play right into clearly the unit cash margin, and that profile pretty much aligns with delivery profile and rate projections that we have.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，正如你所說，音量將發揮關鍵作用。因此，正如我們所討論的，隨著 737 產量和交付量的增加，這將直接影響單位現金利潤率，並且該概況與我們的交付概況和費率預測基本一致。

On the 787, as I mentioned, even at these low rates on a unit basis, cash is pretty good. And that's the efforts of the past for sure and having a good product mix between 8s, 9s and 10s. And again, that's going to go up with volume. And that's obviously not taken into consideration the advances that will come with that increased volume on both of those programs. But by far, those are the 2 single drivers to the cash flow positive and particularly in '22 and beyond.

正如我所提到的，就 787 而言，即使以單位為基礎的利率如此低，現金還是相當不錯的。這肯定是過去的努力，並且在 8、9 和 10 之間擁有良好的產品組合。而且，這會隨著音量的增加而增加。顯然，這還沒有考慮到這兩個項目數量增加所帶來的進步。但到目前為止，這是現金流為正的兩個唯一驅動因素，尤其是在 22 年及以後。

And then beyond that, it's the 777X as we talked about, getting out of use of cash and into positive cash as I just mentioned. Those 3 elements, again, are going to be key to the cash trajectory between now and '23 and '24 and beyond.

除此之外，正如我們剛才提到的，777X 不再使用現金，而是產生正現金。再次強調，這三個要素將成為從現在到 2023 年、2024 年及以後現金軌跡的關鍵。

So I mean if we're in '23 and the MAX rate is hypothetically in the low 40s a month and the 87s hypothetically 6 a month, can those unit cash margins actually be fairly close to where they were prepandemic, pregrounding based on all the cost action and keeping pricing pretty similar? Or is that unrealistic?

所以我的意思是，如果我們處於 23 年，並且 MAX 利率假設為每月 40 多美元，而 87 利率假設為每月 6 美元，那麼這些單位現金利潤率實際上是否可以相當接近疫情前的水平，基於所有成本行動並保持價格相當相似？還是這是不切實際的？

Well, I mean that's certainly the objective, and a lot of part of the transformation effort that we're doing is trying to lean ourselves up. And we'll work to that profile, but volume is going to be key. So if you get to those rates, like I said, the cash is going to follow that.

嗯，我的意思是這當然是目標，我們正在進行的轉型努力很大一部分就是試圖讓我們自己變得精簡。我們將按照這項要求開展工作，但數量才是關鍵。所以，如果你達到這些利率，就像我說的，現金就會跟著來。

And this -- the environment we're in today, how that recovers, the assumptions that our customers have and therefore we have, that's got to stick. And if it sticks, then you'll see the trajectory on cash go with those production rates then by -- no question. But at the same time, these transformation efforts, as I said, they go over multiple years, and that's the objective. Certainly, lean ourselves out, get ourselves even more competitive on the other side of this and really reduce the structural cost within our company so we can be more efficient. All that also is going to play out in the cash profile over that time period.

這就是──我們今天所處的環境，如何恢復，我們的客戶所抱持的假設，以及我們所抱持的假設，這些都必須堅持下去。如果它堅持下去，那麼你會看到現金的軌跡隨著生產力的變化而變化——毫無疑問。但同時，正如我所說，這些轉型努力需要持續多年，這就是目標。當然，我們要精簡隊伍，提高競爭力，並真正降低公司內部的結構性成本，進而提高效率。所有這些也將在那段時期的現金狀況中體現出來。

Yes. Maybe if I could just comment on the pricing question, which is an important question. I do anticipate us being through our inventory in '22 on the MAX. I think we can stay disciplined every step of that way, and indications are that we can.

是的。也許我可以就定價問題發表評論，這是一個重要的問題。我確實預計我們會在 22 年完成 MAX 的庫存。我認為我們可以在前進的每一步中保持紀律，並且有跡象表明我們可以做到。

And then when we get into '23, which is where the question is, I see no reason why the competitive dynamics are any different. I really don't. The value of these 2 airplane competitors, the value of their airplanes is not much has changed. We will have demonstrated performance on the MAX that is very good for the applications that it competes for. And their airplane will have advantages on other applications. But I'm confident in that competitive dynamic and believe we'll get right back to where we were if not something better.

然後，當我們進入 23 年時，問題就出現了，我看不出競爭動態有什麼不同。我真的不知道。這兩家飛機競爭對手的價值，他們的飛機的價值並沒有太大的改變。我們將展示 MAX 的性能，這對於它所競爭的應用程式來說非常好。而且他們的飛機在其他應用上也會有優勢。但我對這種競爭態勢充滿信心，並相信我們會回到原來的狀態，甚至會更好。

And I know Greg, I'm not sure if his restructuring discussion broke up on you like it did for me when I was listening to it.

我知道格雷格，我不確定他的重組討論是否像我聽到的那樣讓你感到困惑。

A little bit, yes.

是的，有一點。

But the structural changes that we're making and the cost advantages that we intend to get from it at something in that $5 billion range, these will accrue to our airplanes. And anyway, I'm optimistic. I'm quite optimistic. There's nothing about the market right now that has me switched off on that, but we are talking about 2023. It's going to take that long for us to sort of work our way out of the COVID world.

但我們正在進行的結構性變革以及我們打算從中獲得的 50 億美元左右的成本優勢將惠及我們的飛機。無論如何，我很樂觀。我相當樂觀。目前的市場狀況並沒有讓我對此失去興趣，但我們談論的是 2023 年。我們需要花很長時間才能擺脫新冠疫情的影響。

Our next question is from Cai von Rumohr from Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Cai von Rumohr。

So you said $5 billion in abnormal production cost. You've done $2.9 billion to date. And yet sequentially, those abnormal costs came down throughout the year. I think they ended at $3.30 billion in the fourth quarter. I mean if you have $2.1 billion to go, which is what the math suggests, it would suggest it moves up. So can you give us some idea of the profile moving forward? And secondly, some idea in terms of the delivery cadence? I mean I could understand that maybe you have very strong MAX deliveries now because people haven't gotten them and then maybe they fall off in '22, '23.

所以你說的是 50 億美元的異常生產成本。到目前為止，您已經賺了 29 億美元。但隨後，這些異常成本在全年都下降了。我認為第四季的營收為 33 億美元。我的意思是，如果還有 21 億美元可用，正如數學所表明的那樣，那就意味著它會上升。那麼，您能向我們介紹一下未來的概況嗎？其次，關於交付節奏您有什麼想法嗎？我的意思是，我可以理解，也許現在 MAX 的交付量非常強勁，因為人們還沒有收到它們，然後也許在 22 年、23 年交付量會下降。

Yes. So kind of on the abnormal cost, Cai, like I said, it can be bumpy or lumpy from quarter-to-quarter. But like we said, we're on a profile to kind of wrap that up as we increase rates. So it's directly tied to the rate where we'll stop to book -- booking abnormal costs, and it will move back into the program.

是的。因此，蔡，關於異常成本，就像我說的，它可能每個季度都出現波動或不穩定。但就像我們所說的那樣，隨著利率的提高，我們會解決這個問題。因此，它與我們停止預訂的費率直接相關 - 預訂異常成本，並將其移回計劃中。

I think on the delivery profile, certainly, we've got a delivery profile laid out in detail for the balance of the year and going into '22 and '23. We don't see any reduction taking place there, as Dave indicated, on the production rates that we've established, not only delivering out of inventory which, as you know, is our priority 1, but also increasing those rates as we go forward.

我認為，在交付概況方面，我們當然已經詳細制定了今年餘下時間以及 22 年和 23 年的交付概況。正如戴夫指出的那樣，我們沒有看到我們已確定的生產率有任何降低，不僅交付庫存（如你所知，這是我們的首要任務），而且隨著我們的前進，這些生產率也在提高。

So that profile continues in delivering off, like I said, the backlog, but also delivering off the inventory that we've got in the ramp. And I don't know whether it was picked up earlier or not, but all the deliveries we've had to date, the 40 aircraft have all come out of inventory.

因此，正如我所說，該配置文件將繼續交付積壓訂單，同時也交付我們在坡道中的庫存。我不知道它是否早些時候就被提走了，但迄今為止我們收到的所有交付的 40 架飛機都已經用完了。

So again, it will be a combination, but the priority will continue to be on those inventory aircraft. So we see strong demand for the aircraft and again, tied to the recovery. And the team's positioned to deliver at high rates. We've certainly got the capital and the capacity and the capability to do that. It will really be informed by our customers' ability to take them in a specific time period.

所以，這將是一個組合，但優先考慮的仍是那些庫存飛機。因此，我們看到對飛機的強勁需求，並且再次與經濟復甦息息相關。團隊已做好準備，以高效率完成任務。我們確實有資本、能力和才能來做到這一點。這實際上將取決於我們的客戶在特定時間內服用它們的能力。

Our next question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wanted to ask about 787, and I think, Greg, you mentioned about 80 aircraft in inventory. What's sort of the normal level of aircraft in inventory? And as we think about continuing to produce over 60 aircraft this year and the state of the widebody market, how do you not end the year with still having aircraft in inventory and going into '22?

我想問一下 787，格雷格，我想你提到庫存中有大約 80 架飛機。庫存飛機的正常水準是多少？當我們考慮今年繼續生產 60 多架飛機以及寬體飛機市場的狀況時，如何才能在年底仍有飛機庫存並進入 2022 年？

Yes. You're right, Seth. We'll have some. That's what I was mentioning earlier that we expect to deliver the majority of that 80 through the balance of '21. And it will be backloaded, as Dave indicated, on our current assumptions of when we believe we can start delivery.

是的。你說得對，塞斯。我們會有一些。這就是我之前提到的，我們預計到 21 年剩餘時間將實現這 80 個目標中的大部分。正如戴夫所指出的，它將根據我們目前對何時可以開始交付的假設進行延期。

So there'll still be some burn off in '22. But like I said, the majority of that will be in '21 and be backloaded associated with that.

因此，22 年仍會有一些燒傷。但就像我說的，其中大部分將在 21 年實現，並與之相關。

But does that mean all -- does that mean the vast majority of the 80 plus all of what is produced?

但這是否意味著全部——這是否意味著所生產的 80 多種產品中的絕大多數？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Our next question is from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德的彼得·阿門特。

Greg, maybe just if you could just highlight your assumptions or at least trying to understand the dynamics of the use of cash in '21. I mean the cadence. Should we expect it to kind of improve throughout the year? Or maybe just any color there and as we get into '22.

格雷格，也許你可以強調你的假設，或至少試著了解 21 年現金使用的動態。我指的是節奏。我們是否應該期待它在全年有所改善？或者也許只是任何顏色，當我們進入'22時。

Yes. No, as you kind of look at it over a quarterly basis, Q1 will be the more challenging quarter, really, again, tied to the inventory burn off on the 787 in particular. And then just, I'll say, the cadence of deliveries on the MAX. So Q1 will be the biggest use, a little bit less in Q2, and then it will start to moderate through Q3 and Q4. So look for a big use of cash in Q1, but again, all tied to those 2 programs predominantly.

是的。不，從季度角度來看，第一季將是更具挑戰性的季度，實際上，這與 787 的庫存消耗有關。然後，我想說的是 MAX 的交付節奏。因此，第一季的使用量最大，第二季的使用量略小，然後第三季和第四季的使用量將開始放緩。因此，第一季的現金使用量將會很大，但同樣，所有資金主要都與這兩個項目有關。

So as we resume deliveries on the 787, we'll start to burn that inventory down. You'll see the benefit of that in the second, third and fourth quarter.

因此，隨著我們恢復 787 的交付，我們將開始消耗這些庫存。您將在第二、第三和第四季看到其好處。

And next, we'll go to Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將與伯恩斯坦一起拜訪道格哈內德 (Doug Harned)。

If I go back a year ago on this call, Dave, you talked about -- that's when you put the NMA kind of aside, on hold and were relooking at how to think about development. Right now, you talked about the competitiveness of the MAX versus the competition, the A320neo. And certainly can see that certainly at the MAX 8 if you look for transcon flights, very competitive airplane. But Airbus has been very successful with the 321XLR, which can do a lot of the 757 missions and can't really see how the MAX can compete up on those missions.

戴夫，如果我回到一年前的這通通話中，你談到了——那時你把 NMA 放在一邊，暫停，重新考慮如何思考發展。現在，您談到了 MAX 與競爭對手 A320neo 的競爭力。如果您正在尋找跨大陸航班，您肯定會發現 MAX 8 是一款非常有競爭力的飛機。但空中巴士的 321XLR 非常成功，可以執行許多 757 任務，並且無法真正看出 MAX 在這些任務上如何與其競爭。

So when you look forward, are you ready to see that market now? How do you think of these sort of narrow transatlantic routes, situations like that? How will you approach that over the long term?

那麼，當您展望未來時，現在準備好進入這個市場了嗎？您如何看待這種狹窄的跨大西洋航線等情況？從長遠來看您將如何處理這個問題？

Well, over the near term, it is what it is. And again, I think about a portfolio of airplanes, not just any one. And while we take all of the faceoffs that we go through in order and in those routes that you described for the 321, we -- I get it completely, so does our team.

嗯，就短期而言，情況就是這樣。再次強調，我考慮的是一系列飛機，而不是任何一架。當我們按照您為 321 描述的順序和路線進行所有對峙時，我們 - 我完全明白，我們的團隊也明白。

Broadly speaking and on balance across the portfolio, we like where our portfolio plays with the MAX at the lower end and the 87 at the higher end and very successful airplanes. So that just said -- all that means is we're going to take our time.

總體而言，從整個投資組合來看，我們喜歡將 MAX 放在低端，將 87 放在高端，這些都是非常成功的飛機。所以，這只是說——這意味著我們要慢慢來。

I'm pretty sure you're in the right space, although I'm not going to point design today. I think you're pretty much in the right space with respect to where next development efforts lean. But I don't want to call it out just yet.

我很確定您是在正確的領域，儘管我今天不打算討論設計。我認為，關於下一步開發工作的重點，您已經處於正確的位置。但我現在還不想說出來。

And I'll go right back to the comment I made in the beginning. We are really progressing well on our engineering and manufacturing forward technology development so that we're ready when that moment comes to offer a really differentiated product. So I'm sure it's not a lot of rocket science for you to add up and guess where things end up.

我將回到一開始我所做的評論。我們的工程和製造前沿技術開發進展順利，因此我們已做好準備，在那一刻提供真正差異化的產品。因此，我相信，對於您來說，計算並猜測事情的最終結果並不需要太多的火箭科學知識。

But we're not going to call out that point design. This isn't the moment. We're going to take a little time, and we don't feel significantly disadvantaged with our portfolio versus their portfolio. So anyway, that's how we think about it. And we are thinking long term, that's for sure.

但我們不會提及這一點設計。現在還不是時候。我們會花一點時間，而且我們並不覺得我們的投資組合與他們的投資組合相比處於明顯的劣勢。無論如何，這就是我們的想法。我們正在考慮長遠的事情，這是肯定的。

Any time frame you can suggest? I mean given the cash pressure now, near term seems hard, but what kind of time frame in the future? Or how would engines play into that timing?

您能建議什麼時間框架嗎？我的意思是，考慮到現在的現金壓力，短期內似乎很難，但未來會是什麼樣的時間框架呢？或者引擎如何發揮作用？

Yes. Well, engines always play into it. I don't think they're going to play into it anywhere near the extent to which they used to simply because the demands on that propulsion system in the next go around I don't think are going to be as significant. And now I'm just -- I'm going to, I think, speak to the industry and what I know they are capable of doing or not.

是的。嗯，引擎總是會發揮作用。我認為他們不會像以前那樣投入那麼多精力，因為我認為下一次飛行對推進系統的要求不會那麼高。現在我只是——我想，我要談談這個行業以及我所知道的他們能做什麼或不能做什麼。

So therefore, differentiation at the airframe level itself is really, really important in the next run, which means that these technologies that we are working with and trying to demonstrate to ourselves at scale with determinant assembly, those are the things that we'll differentiate. And believe it or not, that becomes the most important criteria for us with respect to announcing that next airplane.

因此，在下一輪中，機身層面本身的差異化真的非常重要，這意味著我們正在研究的這些技術，以及試圖透過確定性組裝大規模地向我們自己展示的技術，都是我們要區分的東西。不管你信不信，這已成為我們宣布下一架飛機的最重要標準。

It's got to depend on these advanced technologies, and it will. So -- and I don't feel in any way, shape or form that 1 year or 2 years more in the market to learn more is going to hold us back in any way, shape or form or hurt The Boeing Company in any way, shape or form. So that's the perspective I'd put on it.

它必須依賴這些先進的技術，而且它一定會依賴這些先進的技術。所以——我並不認為，在市場上再花一兩年的時間來學習更多知識會以任何方式阻礙我們，或以任何方式損害波音公司。這就是我對此的看法。

Right now, we're getting no pressure, as you might imagine, from airlines to run forward as fast as we can. And that's a bit of a luxury on this subject. But the most important thing for me and the Boeing team is to get these underlying technologies proven, demonstrated at scale so that when we call that point design, we're ready and we'll deliver.

目前，正如您可能想像的那樣，我們並沒有受到航空公司要求我們盡快前進的壓力。就這個問題而言，這有點奢侈。但對我和波音團隊來說，最重要的是驗證這些基礎技術，並進行大規模演示，以便當我們稱之為點設計時，我們已經做好準備並能夠交付。

Next, we'll go to Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們來拜訪 Wolfe Research 的 Hunter Keay。

Greg, as you think about free cash flow beyond '21, how will orders over the next 12 months impact your decisions on rates, which, of course, also inform the cadence of advances? So holding other things constant like the concession payments and the timing of PDPs, can you help me better understand sort of what your expectations are for order activity and how that will dovetail into production rate decisions and advances through the cash flow line?

格雷格，當您考慮 21 年以後的自由現金流時，未來 12 個月的訂單將如何影響您對利率的決定？當然，利率也會影響貸款的節奏。因此，在保持特許權付款和 PDP 時間等其他因素不變的情況下，您能否幫助我更好地了解您對訂單活動的期望，以及這將如何與生產力決策和現金流預付款相吻合？

Yes. And to your point, I mean, we've taken that into consideration with the current rates that Dave talked about through that period. So the advanced time line associated with that is tied rate to how we see at least near term those production rates. So obviously, if we modify those in any way, it will have an impact on advances. But I would say separate from that, the delivery profile of 87 and 737 are going to be the biggest contributors to the growth of cash flow.

是的。對於您的觀點，我的意思是，我們已經將戴夫在那段時期談到的當前利率考慮在內了。因此，與此相關的高級時間線與我們至少在短期內看到的生產力有關。因此，顯然，如果我們以任何方式修改這些，都會對進步產生影響。但我想說，除此之外，87 和 737 的交付情況將成為現金流成長的最大貢獻者。

Now certainly, advances will help as we get lead time away on rate increases, but delivery profile alone will be one of the more significant drivers. So as I said before, looking from the outside, watch the delivery profile on both of those programs in particular, and they'll align right to our cash flow profiles and projections we've had going forward.

現在，預付款肯定會有所幫助，因為我們可以獲得提高利率的準備時間，但交付情況本身才是更重要的驅動因素之一。因此，正如我之前所說，從外部來看，特別關注這兩個項目的交付情況，它們將與我們未來的現金流狀況和預測相符。

And then advances will be a little further out from this time period just because of the rate increases, particularly on the 37, as we burn off some of the X's advances. And then the advances on the 87 will be, again, tied to the rate increases beyond the '21, '22 frame.

然後，由於利率上升，特別是 37 日的利率上升，我們將從這個時間段開始稍微推遲一些，因為我們會消耗掉 X 的一些預付款。然後，87 的進步將再次與 21、22 框架之後的利率成長掛鉤。

Yes. Maybe I'll add an ounce of color. Of course, we expect and believe that the demand for our current 777 freighter is still significant. And we hope and believe that we'll continue to see ordering activity broadly on that one.

是的。也許我會添加一點顏色。當然，我們預計並相信，我們目前的 777 貨機的需求仍然很大。我們希望並相信，我們將繼續看到這方面的廣泛訂購活動。

The 76 similarly, there's an awful lot of freighter demand for the 76. And then when you get to the 87, the only wildcard that is more upside than downside is if there is a [date, time] if you will, with respect to the trade agreements between the United States and China. And the agreements are in place. It's just a question of whether the posture changes in any way that allows for that Phase 1 deal to move forward.

76 型飛機也是如此，貨機對 76 型飛機的需求非常大。然後，當你到達 87 時，唯一一個好處大於壞處的事情就是，如果有一個關於美國和中國之間的貿易協定的 [日期、時間]。協議已經到位。問題只是，姿態是否會改變，以推動第一階段協議向前推進。

It's a big plus for any administration in light of the number of jobs it supports in the United States, and so we're optimistic on that front. But if that panned out and panned out reasonably quickly, that's more up than down.

考慮到它在美國所支持的就業數量，這對任何政府來說都是一個巨大的優勢，因此我們對此持樂觀態度。但如果這結果得以實現，而且實現得相當快，那麼上漲的幅度就會大於下跌的幅度。

And next, we'll go to Jon Raviv with Citi.

接下來，我們請花旗銀行的喬恩‧拉維夫 (Jon Raviv) 發言。

You mentioned that defense is a critical source of stability here. I know it's not talked about too much because I agree that's not where a lot of the delta is these days. But nevertheless, what is your perspective on underlying growth there? And then your perspective on why Boeing defense, at least from our -- from externally looking at it, has not participated in the same growth that others have seen? Others have been growing mid to high single digits, still looking at maybe low to mid-single-digits growth in 2021. You guys are still looking at maybe low or very modest growth. So what's your perspective on that?

您提到防禦是這裡穩定的重要來源。我知道這個問題沒有被過多地談論，因為我同意現在三角洲的大部分地區都不在那裡。但儘管如此，您對那裡的潛在成長有何看法？那麼，您認為為什麼波音國防公司，至少從我們外部來看，沒有像其他公司一樣實現相同的成長？其他公司則保持中高個位數的成長，預計 2021 年仍可能實現低至中個位數的成長。你們可能仍在關注低成長或非常溫和的成長。那麼您對此有何看法？

And then also looking forward, is there an opportunity for sales growth to accelerate perhaps based on some of those big new wins that you've lodged over the last few years? And what would the impact on the margin be as those programs ramp up?

展望未來，基於過去幾年取得的一些重大新勝利，銷售成長是否有機會加速？隨著這些專案的推進，對利潤率會產生什麼影響？

Greg, can I start? You can fill in as you...

格雷格，我可以開始嗎？您可以隨意填寫...

Yes. Sure thing.

是的。當然可以。

Yes. So it has been, and we continue to believe that we're going to have stable growth and admittedly at the lower end of the single digits. And that's the best guidance we can talk about because we do think there is pressure that will ultimately come down as a result of all the COVID spending here in the United States.

是的。事實就是這樣，我們仍然相信我們將實現穩定的成長，並且不可否認的是，成長率將保持在個位數的低端。這是我們能談論的最好的指導，因為我們確實認為，由於美國在 COVID 方面的所有支出，壓力最終會減輕。

But a large part of our business now is international markets. And the order activity in those international markets has pushed to the right somewhat and almost entirely because of COVID-related stuff, not because of any competitive issue one way or the other.

但目前我們的業務很大一部分是國際市場。這些國際市場的訂單活動在某種程度上向右推進，幾乎完全是因為與 COVID 相關的事情，而不是因為任何競爭問題。

So we still like our position because we have an awful lot of ongoing programs that the military and, of course, our defense bills have been kind to in each and every one of their moments. And this last bill was a good one for us in pretty much every respect. So it's hard to commit to a big uptick in any way on growth rates anytime soon in light of what I think are the pressures.

因此，我們仍然喜歡我們的立場，因為我們有大量正在進行的項目，軍方以及我們的國防法案在每個時刻都對這些項目給予了友好的對待。這份最新的法案對我們來說幾乎在各方面都是好的。因此，考慮到我認為的壓力，很難在短期內以任何方式大幅提高成長率。

The only other comment I would make is there's a big segment of work that we do in the classified world that is incredibly encouraging and incredibly important to us. And anyway, I believe not just for our defense world, but also ultimately derivative technologies for the commercial world that, that's going to be a big source of competitive advantage for Boeing. So we're high on it, but I'm very reticent to want to suggest the market is going to get any better or that we're going to differentiate ourselves any further than what we have been.

我唯一想說的另一點是，我們在機密領域所做的工作很大一部分對我們來說非常令人鼓舞，也非常重要。無論如何，我相信這不僅對於我們的國防領域，而且最終對於商業領域的衍生技術，都將成為波音公司競爭優勢的一大來源。所以我們對此很看好，但我不太願意暗示市場將會變得更好，或者我們將比以前更加與眾不同。

And next, we'll go to David Strauss with Barclays.

接下來，我們來談談巴克萊銀行的戴維‧史特勞斯 (David Strauss)。

I want to go back and touch on 787. Could you just talk about the 80 aircraft that you have in storage? How many at this point, if any, have been reworked? What exactly is involved in that, the costs involved? Is there any sort of customer compensation that you're assuming given the delays on these aircraft?

我想回過頭來談 787。您能談談你們存放的 80 架飛機嗎？到目前為止，有多少內容（如果有的話）已被重新製作？這其中究竟涉及什麼？涉及多少成本？考慮到這些飛機的延誤，您是否認為會為客戶帶來任何形式的補償？

Yes. The cost associated with it, David, we've provisioned for that in our bookkeeping. So that's why we've got it well understood and covered. I don't have the specific number of aircraft that have been reworked, but there's a number that are complete.

是的。大衛，我們已經在簿記中撥出了與此相關的成本。這就是我們充分理解和涵蓋它的原因。我不知道重新設計的飛機的具體數量，但有相當一部分是完整的。

As Dave said, we've still got some work to do, our engineering team does with final dispositions that will inform whether we have additional rework or not. And we'll adjust the schedule accordingly. But we've made a provision in there for what we think are associated costs related to the delay into any rework associated with these inspections.

正如戴夫所說，我們還有一些工作要做，我們的工程團隊將做出最終決定，以決定是否需要額外的返工。我們將相應地調整日程安排。但我們已經為與這些檢查相關的返工延遲所造成的相關成本做好了準備。

Okay. Greg, can you give a little bit more detail on what exactly is involved in the rework? Is it just exterior? Or is there a fair amount of interior work that's got to be done as well to get the airplanes back to spec?

好的。格雷格，您能否更詳細地介紹一下重做的具體內容？只是外表嗎？或者是否還需要進行大量的內部工作才能使飛機恢復到規格？

Yes. I mean it's around the structure. As you -- as we've talked about, you've seen around certain areas of the joint that the team's got to go back -- go in and inspect and potentially rework within the structure. That's primarily it. So it's nothing outside of that as far as interior. It's around some of those joints.

是的。我的意思是它圍繞著結構。正如我們所討論的，您已經看到團隊必須返回接頭的某些區域，進入並檢查結構，並可能對其進行返工。主要就是這樣。因此，就內部而言，除此之外就沒有什麼了。它位於一些關節周圍。

And like we talked earlier, we have been expanding the expansion back into the supply chain as well, but all kind of around the joint areas where we've got multiple buildups of different materials.and do we have the appropriate shims in there and if we need to do any additional rework or inspection, that's what's essentially what's taking place.

正如我們之前所說的，我們也一直在將擴張範圍擴大到供應鏈，但都是圍繞著接頭區域，在這些區域我們有多種不同的材料堆積，我們是否有合適的墊片，是否需要進行任何額外的返工或檢查，這基本上就是正在發生的事情。

Okay. And I think there were some airplanes that -- a handful of airplanes that were grounded, but do you think there are any additional implications to the installed base from what you've found?

好的。我認為有一些飛機——少數飛機停飛了，但根據你的發現，你認為這對已安裝的飛機群還有其他影響嗎？

Not at this time. No.

目前還沒有。不。

No. And those ones that were grounded and ultimately proven okay involved more than what we're working on now. It was a combination of factors. And we know one of those factors have been eliminated.

不。那些已經落地並最終被證明可行的項目涉及的內容比我們現在正在進行的項目要多。這是多種因素共同作用的結果。我們知道其中一個因素已經被消除。

Yes.

是的。

And next, we'll go to Rob Spingarn with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們請瑞士信貸的 Rob Spingarn 來發言。

Dave, I wasn't going to ask on product development, but your answer to Doug makes it somewhat more compelling now. When you distinguish between engine advances and airframe and production advances, does this mean that the next aircraft is not necessarily a platform to introduce a future propulsion technology like they're talking about in Europe, and therefore, that the next plane would be conventionally powered?

戴夫，我本來不打算問產品開發問題，但你對道格的回答現在讓它變得更有說服力了。當您區分發動機進步、機身和生產進步時，這是否意味著下一架飛機不一定是像歐洲所談論的那樣引入未來推進技術的平台，因此下一架飛機將採用常規動力？

Yes, I believe that. Yes. And I'm on the record of saying that. Hydrogen power, I just believe, has a much longer time line than the time line that at least I've read like you did.

是的，我相信。是的。我已經公開說過這番話了。我只是相信，氫能的發展時間線比至少我和你讀到的時間線要長得多。

I have a fair amount of experience with hydrogen. Our company has an incredible amount of experience with hydrogen, at least in the size of airframe that we're all talking about. We can experiment down at the very low end, but that's not going to be a meaningful market here.

我對氫有相當多的經驗。我們公司在氫氣方面擁有豐富的經驗，至少在我們談論的機身尺寸方面。我們可以在最低端進行實驗，但這不會是個有意義的市場。

And the advent of sustainable fuel, already we're capable of living with that sustainable fuel. I believe that's going to be the 15-year answer to 2050 guidelines and approaches because we've all worked with it, experimented with it. We know it works, and now we've got to develop a supply line for it. But I believe it's the only answer between now and 2050.

隨著永續燃料的出現，我們已經有能力利用這種永續燃料生活。我相信這將是 2050 年指導方針和方法的 15 年答案，因為我們都為此努力過、嘗試過。我們知道它是有效的，現在我們必須為它開發一條供應線。但我相信這是從現在到2050年的唯一答案。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再回答一個問題。

And that will be from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

這是 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 的演講。

Greg, you mentioned last quarter, PDP significantly impact 2021 free cash flow. Just in light of the additional 787 build that we're seeing here and the MAX line, is it fair to say you unwind a majority of those 787s that are sitting there right now and 200 MAXes, you get an $8 billion inventory benefit. And then the advances or the PDPs are a similar offset in '21? And then how does that look into 2022?

格雷格，您上個季度提到，PDP 對 2021 年的自由現金流產生了重大影響。僅考慮到我們在這裡看到的額外的 787 建造和 MAX 系列，是否可以公平地說，如果你解除目前停在那裡的大部分 787 和 200 架 MAX，你就會獲得 80 億美元的庫存收益。那麼，21 年的預付款或 PDP 是否也有類似的抵銷？那麼 2022 年的情況如何？

Yes. Yes, you're right. I mean as you look at '20 to '21, certainly, the largest driver of the improvement in cash flow there will be the 787 and the MAX. And as we talked about, it'll be more backloaded. We'll obviously have the increase in the 737 deliveries. But as you indicated, the -- we have excess PDPs. So they're being utilized and will be utilized in some of these deliveries. So you really won't see the, I'll say, true-up of that until you move from '21 into '22.

是的。是的，你說得對。我的意思是，當你展望 20 年至 21 年時，毫無疑問，現金流改善的最大驅動力將是 787 和 MAX。正如我們所說的，它將更加依賴後端負載。我們的 737 交付量顯然會增加。但正如您所指出的，我們的 PDP 過剩。因此，它們正在被利用並且將會被利用在一些交付中。所以，我想說，直到你從 21 年進入 22 年，你才會真正看到這一點。

But when you look at the growth profile, '21 to '22, again, 737 is a key driver to that. So back to my comments earlier around the rate profile and the delivery of the aircraft off the ramp, that is the single biggest driver as you look at '21 to '22 as it sits here today. So -- and the advances start to true up in that time period as well, and I'll say, kind of get more to a normalized level of advances, but those are ultimately the key drivers year-over-year.

但當你觀察 21 年至 22 年的成長概況時，737 再次成為關鍵驅動力。所以回到我之前關於費率概況和飛機交付的評論，這是目前 2021 年至 2022 年最大的驅動因素。所以 — — 在那段時間內，進步也開始顯現，我想說，進步已經達到了正常水平，但這些最終是逐年增長的關鍵驅動力。

All right. That completes The Boeing Company's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you all for joining.

好的。波音公司 2020 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。

Thank you.

謝謝。