波音 (BA) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Boeing Company's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. The management discussion and slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session, are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。大家好，歡迎來到波音公司 2020 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。管理層討論和幻燈片演示，以及分析師問答環節，都在互聯網上進行現場直播。 （操作員說明）

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I am turning the call over to Ms. Maurita Sutedja, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Boeing Company. Ms. Sutedja, please go ahead.

此時，為了進行開場白和介紹，我將電話轉給波音公司投資者關係副總裁 Maurita Sutedja 女士。 Sutedja 女士，請繼續。

Thank you, John, and good morning. Welcome to Boeing's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. I'm Marita Sutedja, and with me today are David Calhoun, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Greg Smith, Boeing's Executive Vice President, Enterprise Operations and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。歡迎來到波音 2020 年第一季度財報電話會議。我是 Marita Sutedja，今天和我一起的有波音公司總裁兼首席執行官 David Calhoun；波音公司企業運營執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Greg Smith。

After management comments, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. In fairness to others on the call, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question. As always, we have provided detailed financial information in our press release issued earlier today. And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation through our website at boeing.com.

管理層發表意見後，我們將進行問答環節。為了對通話中的其他人公平，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題上。一如既往，我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中提供了詳細的財務信息。提醒一下，您可以通過我們的網站 boeing.com 關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections, estimates and goals we include in our discussion this morning are likely to involve risks, which are detailed in our news release, in our various SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement disclaimer at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們在今天上午的討論中包含的任何預測、估計和目標都可能涉及風險，這些風險在我們的新聞稿、我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的各種文件和前瞻性聲明免責聲明中有詳細說明在本網絡演示結束時。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解某些非 GAAP 措施的披露和對賬情況。

Now I will turn the call over to Dave Calhoun.

現在我將把電話轉給戴夫卡爾霍恩。

Thank you, Marita, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝 Marita，大家早上好。

I want to start by saying I hope you are all staying safe and healthy during this global crisis. I also want to thank my Boeing colleagues around the globe for everything they are doing to support each other, our business and our customers during these intensely challenging times. On behalf of Boeing, I'd like to recognize all of the public servants out there, from federal, state and local authorities, to frontline health care professionals and first responders, for the difficult decisions and the personal risks they are making to protect and care for all of us. Let's turn to the second slide, please.

首先，我想說我希望你們在這場全球危機中都保持安全和健康。我還要感謝我在全球的波音同事，感謝他們在這個充滿挑戰的時期為相互支持、我們的業務和我們的客戶所做的一切。我代表波音公司，感謝所有公務員，從聯邦、州和地方當局，到一線醫療保健專業人員和急救人員，感謝他們為保護和保護他們所做的艱難決定和個人風險。關心我們所有人。請轉到第二張幻燈片。

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis like no other. This hits home for us personally and professionally. Across Boeing, we're focused on keeping our people and our communities safe. We're battling to stop the virus by taking every measure possible, including early implementation of virtual work, deep cleaning our work areas, adjusting work patterns, adding visual indicators to increase social distancing and temperature screening stations with no-touch thermal scanners, providing access to medical information around the clock, quarantining anyone potentially exposed to the virus, suspending operations where necessary, and more. We have doubled our paid leave policy for those who cannot work remotely when their sites are suspended.

COVID-19 大流行是一場與眾不同的全球危機。這對我們個人和專業來說都很重要。在整個波音公司，我們專注於確保我們的員工和社區的安全。我們正在努力通過採取一切可能的措施來阻止病毒，包括儘早實施虛擬工作、深度清潔我們的工作區域、調整工作模式、添加視覺指示器以增加社交距離和使用非接觸式熱掃描儀的溫度篩查站，提供全天候獲取醫療信息、隔離任何可能接觸病毒的人、在必要時暫停運營等等。對於那些在站點暫停時無法遠程工作的人，我們將帶薪休假政策增加了一倍。

At sites where we've had to temporarily suspend operations, we've worked closely with our customers to ensure we maintain critical support for them. And before bringing our teams back to work, we've implemented objective and rigorous steps aligned with federal and state guidance to ensure safe and orderly restart of operations.

在我們不得不暫時停止運營的站點，我們與客戶密切合作，以確保我們為他們提供關鍵支持。在讓我們的團隊恢復工作之前，我們已經實施了符合聯邦和州指南的客觀和嚴格的步驟，以確保安全有序地重啟運營。

Earlier this week, we announced that we will resume operations at our Boeing South Carolina site beginning on May 3. This move brings back our final production site that was temporarily suspended as a result of COVID-19.

本週早些時候，我們宣布將從 5 月 3 日開始恢復波音南卡羅來納州工廠的運營。此舉帶回了我們因 COVID-19 而暫時停工的最終生產基地。

We're also doing everything we can to support our global supply chain health. A number of our suppliers have suspended or reduced their operations, resulting in some supply shortages for our own operations. In some cases, this contributed to our site suspension decisions. We've taken mitigating actions where we can, but supply disruption remains a key watch item for us.

我們也在竭盡所能支持我們的全球供應鏈健康。我們的許多供應商已暫停或減少運營，導致我們自己的運營出現一些供應短缺。在某些情況下，這會導致我們做出網站暫停決定。我們已盡可能採取緩解措施，但供應中斷仍然是我們關注的一個關鍵項目。

At the other end of our value chain, we continue to support our commercial airplanes and services customers as their own business slows to a trickle. We've also focused on meeting the commitments to our defense and space customers. Given the swift and severe nature of this COVID-19 shock to preserve the long-term competitiveness of our company as well as our industry, we are intensely focused on ensuring liquidity through the immediate crisis. We welcome that some 26 countries, including the United States, have announced economic support packages worth more than $100 billion, specifically targeting the aerospace and airline sectors. The aerospace industry relies on a global shared supply chain. And the aviation sector supports 3.6% of the global GDP, generating more than 65 million jobs worldwide.

在我們價值鏈的另一端，我們繼續支持我們的商用飛機和服務客戶，因為他們自己的業務正在放緩。我們還專注於履行對國防和太空客戶的承諾。鑑於這種 COVID-19 衝擊的迅速和嚴重性，為了保持我們公司和行業的長期競爭力，我們非常專注於確保流動性度過眼前的危機。我們歡迎包括美國在內的約26個國家宣布了價值超過1000億美元的一攬子經濟支持計劃，特別是針對航空航天領域。航空航天業依賴全球共享供應鏈。航空業支撐著全球 GDP 的 3.6%，在全球創造了超過 6500 萬個就業崗位。

In the U.S., we applaud the administration and Congress for working together to pass the CARES Act, which will be critical to supporting the nation's entire aerospace manufacturing sector, which comprise 2.5 million jobs and 17,000 suppliers. We expect that programs coming out of the bill and funding options the government is putting in place will provide support to help the credit markets function again, providing the liquidity that is vital to our industry's ability to bridge recovery. The $25 billion support package agreed to by the U.S. airlines and the government is a pivotal step toward maintaining the aviation pillar of the U.S. economy even if full recovery will take years, not months. Knowing that the U.S. airline industry has critical financial support through the pandemic allows us to plan our production and services system for the medium and long-term impact on air travel.

在美國，我們讚揚政府和國會共同努力通過 CARES 法案，該法案對於支持美國整個航空航天製造業至關重要，該行業包括 250 萬個工作崗位和 17,000 個供應商。我們預計該法案中的計劃和政府正在實施的融資方案將提供支持，幫助信貸市場再次發揮作用，提供對我們行業渡過復甦的能力至關重要的流動性。美國航空公司和政府同意的 250 億美元支持計劃是維持美國經濟航空支柱的關鍵一步，即使全面復甦需要數年而不是數月。知道美國航空業在大流行期間獲得了重要的財政支持，這使我們能夠針對航空旅行的中長期影響來規劃我們的生產和服務系統。

Greg will go through our liquidity situation in more detail a bit later, but let me just say we believe that government support will be critical to ensuring our industry's access to liquidity. We continue to evaluate options in the capital markets as well as funding options from the U.S. government via the U.S. Treasury and various federal reserve programs. We've also taken other aggressive liquidity steps, including drawing down on a term loan, reducing operating costs, suspending dividend payments, terminating share repurchase authorization, reducing or deferring noncritical spend and accelerating some progress payment receipts with the help from our defense customers. Additionally, we are working to resize and reshape our business, starting at the top with our leadership structure. We are consolidating roles, simplifying processes and focusing accountabilities.

格雷格稍後會更詳細地介紹我們的流動性情況，但我只想說，我們相信政府的支持對於確保我們行業獲得流動性至關重要。我們繼續評估資本市場的選擇以及美國政府通過美國財政部和各種聯邦儲備計劃提供的資金選擇。我們還採取了其他積極的流動性措施，包括減少定期貸款、降低運營成本、暫停支付股息、終止股票回購授權、減少或推遲非關鍵支出以及在國防客戶的幫助下加快部分進度付款收據。此外，我們正在努力調整和重塑我們的業務，從我們的領導結構開始。我們正在整合角色、簡化流程並集中責任。

As part of this reorganization, I've asked Greg Smith, who most of you know well, to take additional responsibilities leading our enterprise manufacturing, supply chain and services functions in addition to his CFO and strategy roles.

作為此次重組的一部分，除了 CFO 和戰略角色之外，我已經要求你們大多數人都熟悉的 Greg Smith 承擔額外的責任來領導我們的企業製造、供應鍊和服務職能。

Before I turn to our longer-term business environment and the steps we're taking to prepare for it, I want to call out the selfless contributions Boeing employees have made to the broader fight against the coronavirus. They've been producing protective face shields for distribution to health care professionals, have flown our aircraft on missions to transport critical health care supplies around the world, donated masks, gloves and other equipment, and contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to food centers for people in need. And that's just a partial list.

在我談到我們的長期商業環境和我們正在採取的準備措施之前，我想強調波音員工為更廣泛的抗擊冠狀病毒所做的無私貢獻。他們一直在生產防護面罩以分發給醫療保健專業人員，駕駛我們的飛機執行任務，在世界各地運送重要的醫療保健用品，捐贈口罩、手套和其他設備，並向食品中心捐款數十萬美元需要幫助的人士。這只是部分列表。

Now I'd like to turn the attention to the outlook for our industry highlighted on Slide 3. The air travel industry has never seen anything quite like this. The latest IATA forecast projects full year passenger traffic to be down 48% this year compared to 2019 as global economic activity slows down due to the COVID-19 and the governments severely restricting travel to contain the spread of that virus. Here in the U.S., passenger traffic at this moment in time is down 95% compared to a year ago.

現在，我想將注意力轉移到幻燈片 3 中突出顯示的我們行業的前景。航空旅行業從未見過這樣的情況。最新的 IATA 預測預計今年全年客運量將比 2019 年下降 48%，原因是 COVID-19 導致全球經濟活動放緩，而且各國政府嚴格限制旅行以遏制該病毒的傳播。在美國，此刻的客運量與一年前相比下降了 95%。

Airlines are cutting back operations dramatically. As they assess their businesses, they're making difficult decisions that result in grounding fleets, deferring airplane orders, postponing acceptance of completed orders and slowing down or stopping payments. They are also accelerating aircraft retirements and requiring fewer services.

航空公司正在大幅削減運營。在評估業務時，他們會做出艱難的決定，導致停飛機隊、推遲飛機訂單、推遲接受已完成的訂單以及放慢或停止付款。他們還在加速飛機退役並減少服務需求。

The fundamentals that have driven air travel for the past 5 decades and doubled air traffic over the past 2 decades remain intact. We believe this industry will recover, but it will take 2 to 3 years for travel to return to 2019 levels, and it will be a few years beyond that for the industry to return to long-term growth trends.

過去 5 年推動航空旅行和過去 2 年空中交通量翻番的基本面依然完好無損。我們相信這個行業會復蘇，但旅遊需要 2 到 3 年的時間才能恢復到 2019 年的水平，而行業恢復長期增長趨勢還需要幾年時間。

Our outlook is informed by decades of analysis and insights on customer behavior, including how the industry has reacted to prior market shocks. We incorporated assumptions related to a prolonged recession and potential consolidation within the industry in our assessment. The picture is dynamic and subject to many unknowns, but, as we see it today, narrowbody airplanes will lead the way to recovery, trailed by widebody fleets, as airlines progressively bring their networks back online. Therefore, widebody passenger fleets will likely be more significantly impacted than narrowbody airplanes in the near term.

我們的展望基於數十年來對客戶行為的分析和洞察，包括該行業如何應對先前的市場衝擊。我們在評估中納入了與長期衰退和行業內潛在整合相關的假設。情況是動態的，受許多未知數的影響，但正如我們今天所看到的那樣，窄體飛機將引領復甦之路，寬體機隊緊隨其後，因為航空公司將逐步恢復其網絡。因此，在短期內，寬體客機機隊可能會比窄體飛機受到更大的影響。

A key driver in both segments will be the rate of retirements of older fleets. We expect our customers to look at their fleet planning strategies differently in light of these dynamics. More than 2,500 aircraft with 20-plus years of service were in active service prior to the crisis. Replacements will not be uniform as airlines will focus on the oldest and least efficient to retire. Some airlines have already made announcements to this effect. Airplanes that we plan to deliver this year will be 25% to 40% more fuel-efficient than the airplanes that they're replacing.

這兩個領域的一個關鍵驅動因素將是老舊機隊的退役率。我們希望我們的客戶根據這些動態以不同的方式看待他們的車隊規劃策略。超過 2,500 架服役超過 20 年的飛機在危機前服役。更換將不會統一，因為航空公司將專注於最老和效率最低的退休人員。一些航空公司已經就此發布了公告。我們計劃今年交付的飛機的燃油效率將比它們正在更換的飛機高 25% 到 40%。

Our position is helped by the value proposition of our family of airplanes and the diversity of our backlog. This includes our market-leading 787 Dreamliner family; our unmatched cargo lineup; the world's largest and most efficient twin engine jet, 777X; and the versatile 737 family. To balance the supply and demand given the COVID-19 shock, and to preserve our long-term potential and competitiveness, we have decided to reduce the production rates of several of our commercial airplane programs. Let's turn to Slide 4.

我們飛機系列的價值主張和積壓訂單的多樣性有助於我們的地位。這包括我們市場領先的 787 夢想飛機系列；我們無與倫比的貨運陣容；世界上最大、效率最高的雙引擎噴氣式飛機 777X；以及多功能的 737 系列。為了在 COVID-19 衝擊下平衡供需，並保持我們的長期潛力和競爭力，我們決定降低我們幾個商用飛機項目的生產率。讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。

In the narrowbody segment, we have assumed that we will resume 737 MAX aircraft production at low rates in 2020 as timing and conditions of return to service are better understood. We expect to gradually increase the production rate to 31 during 2021, with further gradual increases that correspond with market demand. The slower production rate ramp-up reflects commercial airline industry uncertainty due to the impact of COVID-19. And the production rate ramp profile is also affected by the pace of delivery of our stored aircraft. We continue to see our new MAX airplanes creating capacity for growth and providing required replacements for older, less efficient airplanes. We will continue to work closely with our customers to review their fleet plans and make adjustments where appropriate to adapt to lower-than-planned 737 MAX production in the near term, provide more flexibility to deliver MAX airplanes in our backlog and protect the value of the MAX family.

在窄體機領域，我們假設我們將在 2020 年以較低的速度恢復 737 MAX 飛機的生產，因為對恢復服務的時間和條件有了更好的了解。我們預計在 2021 年將生產率逐步提高到 31，並根據市場需求進一步逐步增加。生產率增長放緩反映了商業航空業因 COVID-19 的影響而存在的不確定性。生產率斜坡曲線也受到我們存儲飛機交付速度的影響。我們繼續看到我們的新 MAX 飛機創造增長能力，並為舊的、效率較低的飛機提供所需的替代品。我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，審查他們的機隊計劃，並在適當的時候做出調整，以適應近期低於計劃的 737 MAX 產量，提供更大的靈活性來交付我們積壓的 MAX 飛機，並保護 737 MAX 飛機的價值MAX家族。

Moving to the widebody segment. We now plan to reduce the 787 production rate to 10 per month in 2020, and then gradually reduce to 7 per month by 2022. We will continue to evaluate the rate beyond 2022 to balance supply and demand. Our 787 Dreamliner family has a compelling value proposition, offering unparalleled fuel efficiency and range flexibility, enabling carriers to optimize fleet and network performance as well as profitability -- as well as profitably expanding to new markets.

轉向寬體機部分。我們現在計劃在 2020 年將 787 的生產率降低到每月 10 架，然後到 2022 年逐步降低到每月 7 架。我們將繼續評估 2022 年以後的生產率以平衡供需。我們的 787 Dreamliner 系列擁有引人注目的價值主張，提供無與倫比的燃油效率和航程靈活性，使承運人能夠優化機隊和網絡性能以及盈利能力——以及有利地擴展到新市場。

Turning to the 777X. We've made progress on the 777X certification requirements and have resumed flight testing with the restart of our operations in the Puget Sound. We currently expect first delivery of the 777-9 to be in 2021, and we'll continue to manage the risks inherent in any development program, especially ones around certification in the post MAX environment and COVID-19-related impacts. We now expect to deliver 777 at an average rate of approximately 2.5 per month in 2020. And due to the market uncertainties, driven primarily by the impacts of COVID-19, we plan to reduce the combined 777, 777X production rate to 3 per month in 2021. We will take a measured approach to the 777X rate ramp as we will look to minimize the amount of change in corporation work by managing the number of aircraft produced prior to entry into service. On the 777s, as I discussed earlier, we will continue to closely monitor the cargo market and carefully manage our skyline.

轉向 777X。我們在 777X 認證要求方面取得了進展，並隨著我們在普吉特海灣的運營重啟而恢復了飛行測試。我們目前預計 777-9 的首批交付時間為 2021 年，我們將繼續管理任何開發計劃中固有的風險，尤其是圍繞 MAX 後環境認證和 COVID-19 相關影響的風險。我們現在預計在 2020 年以平均每月約 2.5 架的速度交付 777。並且由於主要受 COVID-19 影響的市場不確定性，我們計劃將 777、777X 的總生產率降低至每月 3 架2021 年。我們將對 777X 的速率爬升採取審慎的方法，因為我們將通過管理投入使用前生產的飛機數量來盡量減少公司工作的變化量。關於 777，正如我之前所討論的，我們將繼續密切關注貨運市場並謹慎管理我們的天際線。

Finally, we'll make no change to the 767 and 747 production rates at this time. These programs are targeted for the cargo market, and approximately half of the 767 production line is dedicated to the tanker program. These rate decisions are based on our current assessment of the demand environment, taking into account a host of risks and opportunities. We will closely monitor the key factors that affect our skyline, including the widebody replacement cycle and the cargo market. We will maintain a disciplined rate management process and make adjustments as appropriate in the future. Now let's turn to Slide 5.

最後，我們目前不會改變 767 和 747 的生產率。這些項目針對的是貨運市場，大約一半的 767 生產線專用於油輪項目。這些利率決定基於我們當前對需求環境的評估，同時考慮了一系列風險和機遇。我們將密切關注影響天際線的關鍵因素，包括寬體機更換週期和貨運市場。我們將保持紀律嚴明的費率管理流程，並在未來進行適當的調整。現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 5。

The diversity of our portfolio is unmatched, and our government services, defense and space programs will provide critical stability for us moving forward. In fact, our work in these areas accounted for 45% of our overall revenue in 2019. That will obviously increase in the year ahead. At Defense, Space & Security, we continue to see a healthy market with solid demand for our major platforms and programs, both domestically and internationally. Despite some near-term production impacts associated with our temporary suspension of operations at various locations, our portfolio of programs and technologies remains well aligned to our customers' missions. We are also well positioned with proven world-class platforms to address current needs and innovative, capable and affordable new franchise programs for the future.

我們產品組合的多樣性是無與倫比的，我們的政府服務、國防和太空計劃將為我們的前進提供至關重要的穩定性。事實上，我們在這些領域的工作占我們 2019 年總收入的 45%。這一數字在未來一年將明顯增加。在國防、太空與安全領域，我們繼續看到一個健康的市場，對我們的主要平台和項目有強勁的需求，包括國內和國際。儘管我們在多個地點暫時停止運營對近期生產產生了一些影響，但我們的項目和技術組合仍然與客戶的使命保持一致。我們還擁有經過驗證的世界級平台，可以滿足當前的需求，並為未來提供創新、有能力和負擔得起的新特許經營計劃。

For example, the president's budget request for fiscal year '21 supports key Boeing programs, including the V-22 and Apaches, 12 F-15EX aircraft and 15 KC-46A Tankers. It also requests funding in line with the expected development profile of future franchise programs, the MQ-25, the T-7A Red Hawk and the MH-139A Grey Wolf, and our extra-large unmanned undersea vehicle. We have received broad support from the Pentagon for programs and products across the BDS portfolio.

例如，總統的 21 財年預算請求支持關鍵的波音項目，包括 V-22 和阿帕奇、12 架 F-15EX 飛機和 15 架 KC-46A 加油機。它還根據未來特許經營計劃、MQ-25、T-7A 紅鷹和 MH-139A 灰狼以及我們的超大型無人水下航行器的預期發展概況申請資金。我們已獲得五角大樓對 BDS 產品組合中的項目和產品的廣泛支持。

We are continuously improving performance of our existing platforms, including the KC-46A Tanker and our space programs. And while the tanker program has had delays and other challenges, with this month's agreement with the U.S. Air Force to develop and integrate a new remote vision system, we will ensure that KC-46 becomes the standard by which all future refueling aircraft are measured. Given its 2020 design update, no other tanker will have the technological capabilities of the KC-46. The men and women of the U.S. Air Force have our full commitment, and our investment in the tanker reinforces that dedication.

我們不斷改進現有平台的性能，包括 KC-46A 加油機和我們的太空計劃。儘管加油機計劃出現延誤和其他挑戰，但隨著本月與美國空軍就開發和集成新的遠程視覺系統達成協議，我們將確保 KC-46 成為衡量所有未來加油機的標準。鑑於其 2020 年的設計更新，沒有其他加油機具有 KC-46 的技術能力。美國空軍的男男女女有我們的全部承諾，我們對加油機的投資加強了這種奉獻精神。

Our space teams completed the core stage of NASA's space launch system and learned key lessons from the CST-100 Starliner's orbital flight test. We will refly this test to demonstrate the quality of the Starliner system, paving the way for future crude flights. It is the right thing to do for our NASA customer and the astronauts who ultimately fly on it. As you may recall, we provisioned for another uncrewed mission in our financials last quarter.

我們的太空團隊完成了 NASA 太空發射系統的核心階段，並從 CST-100 Starliner 的軌道飛行測試中吸取了重要經驗教訓。我們將通過這次測試來展示 Starliner 系統的質量，為未來的粗略飛行鋪平道路。對於我們的 NASA 客戶和最終乘坐它飛行的宇航員來說，這是正確的做法。您可能還記得，我們​​在上個季度的財務報表中為另一項無人任務做好了準備。

On the services side, we are seeing a direct impact on our commercial supply chain business as fewer flights result in a decreased demand for our parts and logistics offerings. Our commercial customers are curtailing discretionary spend, such as modifications and upgrades, and focusing on required maintenance. We anticipate accelerated retirement of older airplanes, which will result in a newer fleet when air travel resumes to previous levels, which will prolong the period of decreased demand for our commercial services offerings. Similar to commercial airplanes, we expect a multiyear recovery period for the commercial services business.

在服務方面，我們看到了對我們的商業供應鏈業務的直接影響，因為航班減少導致對我們的零件和物流產品的需求減少。我們的商業客戶正在減少可自由支配的支出，例如修改和升級，並專注於所需的維護。我們預計舊飛機將加速退役，這將在航空旅行恢復到以前的水平時產生更新的機隊，這將延長對我們的商業服務產品需求減少的時期。與商用飛機類似，我們預計商業服務業務將經歷多年的複蘇期。

The demand outlook for our government services business, which, in 2019, accounted for just under half of the BGS revenue, it remains stable. The strength of government services provides a strong foundation for our overall services business. We see growth in a number of government services areas, including ramp-ups to support international customers with training, logistics and supply chain offerings as well as growth on key U.S. programs.

我們政府服務業務的需求前景保持穩定，該業務在 2019 年佔 BGS 收入的一半以下。政府服務的實力為我們的整體服務業務奠定了堅實的基礎。我們看到許多政府服務領域的增長，包括通過培訓、物流和供應鏈產品支持國際客戶的增長，以及美國關鍵項目的增長。

In summary, our industry is going to look very different as a result of this pandemic and the economic impact it has had on airlines and schedules around the world. The resulting reductions in the BCA production rates I outlined will require us to make similar adjustment in our infrastructure, our spending and our workforce.

總而言之，由於這種流行病及其對全球航空公司和航班時刻表的經濟影響，我們的行業將看起來非常不同。我概述的 BCA 生產率的降低將要求我們對我們的基礎設施、我們的支出和我們的勞動力進行類似的調整。

We will be a smaller company for a while. We've worked hard to maintain the stability of our workforce, avoiding layoffs even though -- even through the suspension of MAX production, doubling the length of time we pay employees impacted by the COVID-induced shutdown of Puget Sound, Charleston and other sites, bringing people back to work at those sites as soon as we safely could. But the sharp reduction in demand for our airplanes that we see out over the next several years won't support the size of the workforce we have today. At this time, we are taking action to reduce our workforce by approximately 10% of our roughly 160,000 employees by end of this year through the combination of voluntary layoffs, attrition and involuntary layoffs as necessary. This is 10% of the total for our enterprise. We'll have to make even deeper reductions in areas that are most exposed to the condition of our commercial customers, more than 15% across commercial airplanes and services businesses, as well as our corporate functions. At the same time, the ongoing stability of our defense, space and related services businesses will help us limit the overall depth of the cut.

我們將暫時成為一家較小的公司。我們一直在努力保持員工隊伍的穩定性，避免裁員，即使是通過暫停 MAX 生產，我們向受 COVID 引起的 Puget Sound、Charleston 和其他站點關閉影響的員工支付的時間加倍，盡快讓人們安全地回到這些地點工作。但是我們看到未來幾年對我們飛機的需求急劇減少將無法支持我們今天擁有的勞動力規模。目前，我們正在採取行動，到今年年底，通過自願裁員、自然減員和必要時的非自願裁員相結合，將我們的員工隊伍減少約 10%。這是我們企業總數的 10%。我們將不得不在最容易受到商業客戶狀況影響的領域進行更深入的削減，在商用飛機和服務業務以及我們的公司職能部門中削減超過 15%。與此同時，我們國防、太空和相關服務業務的持續穩定將幫助我們限制削減的整體深度。

Of course, we will continue to monitor market conditions closely in light of the unpredictable factors currently driving it, and we will make ongoing adjustments as appropriate. We will continuously work to shape our business to compete in what we think the market will look like over the next 5 years.

當然，我們會繼續密切關注市場狀況，結合目前的不可預測因素，適時進行調整。我們將不斷努力塑造我們的業務，以便在我們認為未來 5 年的市場中展開競爭。

I shared this news with our employees this morning, and I committed to implementing these reductions as fairly, respectfully and transparently as possible, and providing as much support for our employees as we can through the duration of the global health emergency we are facing.

我今天早上與我們的員工分享了這個消息，我承諾盡可能公平、尊重和透明地實施這些削減，並在我們面臨的全球衛生緊急情況期間為我們的員工提供盡可能多的支持。

Before I turn this over to Greg, I want to update you on a couple of other important topics. First, our progress on safely returning the 737 MAX to service. We're continuing our work on the safe return of the MAX to service, working closely with the FAA and other global regulators. Right now, we are focused on completing the software validation and required technical documentation that will precede a certification flight. Some of this documentation work has taken longer than we anticipated. And the coronavirus situation has also required some changes to how we do things, including working remotely and virtual meetings with our regulators. With that said, we've continued to make very solid progress, and we currently expect that the necessary regulatory approvals will be obtained in time to support resumption of 737 MAX deliveries during the third quarter. Of course, the actual timing will ultimately be determined by our regulators.

在我將此轉交給 Greg 之前，我想向您介紹其他幾個重要主題的最新情況。首先，我們在 737 MAX 安全復飛方面取得的進展。我們正在與美國聯邦航空局和其他全球監管機構密切合作，繼續致力於 MAX 安全返回服務。目前，我們專注於完成軟件驗證和認證飛行之前所需的技術文檔。其中一些文檔工作花費的時間比我們預期的要長。冠狀病毒的情況還要求我們改變做事方式，包括遠程工作和與監管機構進行虛擬會議。話雖如此，我們繼續取得非常穩固的進展，我們目前預計將及時獲得必要的監管批准，以支持在第三季度恢復 737 MAX 交付。當然，具體時間最終還是要由我們的監管部門決定。

In the meantime, we have approximately 450 737 MAX aircraft built and stored, and our MAX backlog has remained strong throughout this process at approximately 4,000 aircraft. They are the most fuel-efficient narrowbody planes in the market with useful lives well over 25 years. We have been working proactively with our customers to maintain the health of this backlog while responding to their needs.

與此同時，我們建造和儲存了大約 450 架 737 MAX 飛機，在整個過程中，我們的 MAX 積壓訂單一直保持強勁，大約有 4,000 架飛機。它們是市場上最省油的窄體飛機，使用壽命超過 25 年。我們一直在積極與客戶合作，以在響應他們的需求的同時保持這一積壓的健康。

Turning to Embraer. We announced Saturday that we have terminated the agreement to establish a strategic partnership between our 2 companies, covering both the planned commercial and defense joint ventures. We worked diligently for 2 years to finalize the transaction, but ultimately, we could not come to resolution around critical, unsatisfied conditions for the deal under our master transaction agreement. It is deeply disappointing, but we have reached a point where continued negotiation was no longer helpful. And so we exercised the rights set out in the MTA to terminate the agreement. Looking ahead, we will continue to concentrate on what is most important across Boeing.

轉向巴西航空工業公司。我們週六宣布，我們已經終止了在我們兩家公司之間建立戰略合作夥伴關係的協議，涵蓋計劃中的商業和國防合資企業。我們努力工作了 2 年以完成交易，但最終，我們無法根據我們的主交易協議就交易的關鍵、未滿足的條件達成解決方案。這令人深感失望，但我們已經到了繼續談判不再有幫助的地步。因此，我們行使了 MTA 中規定的終止協議的權利。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於波音最重要的事情。

To that end, I established 6 company priorities in January. They included returning the 737 MAX safely to service and earning back trust with our stakeholders. We are also committed to delivering excellence across our businesses and restoring our production health, and we are determined to invest in our future while always living our values. We will not lose sight of the importance of making investments that are critical to our future, such as the continued -- such as continuing to progress on our development programs such as the 777X and the 737 MAX 10.

為此，我在 1 月份確定了 6 個公司優先事項。其中包括讓 737 MAX 安全恢復服務並重新贏得利益相關者的信任。我們還致力於在我們的業務中實現卓越並恢復我們的生產健康，我們決心在始終踐行我們的價值觀的同時投資於我們的未來。我們不會忽視進行對我們未來至關重要的投資的重要性，例如繼續 - 例如繼續推進我們的開發計劃，如 777X 和 737 MAX 10。

With that, let me turn it over to Greg for an update on our financial performance. Greg?

有了這個，讓我把它交給格雷格，了解我們財務業績的最新情況。格雷格？

Great. Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone.

偉大的。謝謝，戴夫，大家早上好。

Let's please turn to Slide 6 for our first quarter results. Our first quarter results were primarily driven by the COVID-19 impacts and the 737 MAX grounding. Revenue, earnings per share and operating cash were materially reduced. Prior to experiencing COVID-19 impacts, we were tracking well to meeting our original internal first quarter forecast. Our revenue of $16.9 billion reflects lower 737 MAX deliveries versus first quarter of last year as well as fewer deliveries in the quarter due to COVID-19. Core earnings per share was negative $1.70, and earnings in the quarter were also impacted by a charge on the KC-46A Tanker program.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 6 了解我們的第一季度業績。我們第一季度的業績主要受到 COVID-19 影響和 737 MAX 停飛的推動。收入、每股收益和經營現金大幅減少。在經歷 COVID-19 影響之前，我們一直在很好地跟踪以達到我們最初的內部第一季度預測。我們 169 億美元的收入反映了 737 MAX 交付量低於去年第一季度，以及由於 COVID-19 而導致本季度交付量減少。每股核心收益為負 1.70 美元，本季度收益也受到 KC-46A 加油機項目費用的影響。

Before we discuss the segment performance, let me touch on 737 MAX. As Dave mentioned, we currently have approximately 450 737 MAX aircraft built and stored in inventory. We continue to monitor and maintain these aircraft in a regular basis, including completing more than 1,000 flights over the past year. Also as mentioned, primarily due to COVID-19 impacts, we've revised our assumptions on timing and the profile of deliveries from storage and the production rate ramp. Delivery from storage will continue to be priority one, post assisting our customers with their return to service. These aircraft and storage will convert to significant operating cash over the period of time it takes to deliver these aircraft out of inventory.

在我們討論細分市場性能之前，讓我談談 737 MAX。正如 Dave 提到的，我們目前大約有 450 架 737 MAX 飛機製造並庫存。我們繼續定期監控和維護這些飛機，包括在過去一年完成了 1,000 多次飛行。同樣如前所述，主要是由於 COVID-19 的影響，我們修改了我們對時間和存儲交付概況以及生產率上升的假設。從倉庫交付將繼續是首要任務，協助我們的客戶恢復服務。這些飛機和庫存將在交付這些飛機出庫存所需的時間段內轉化為大量運營現金。

In preparation for our first quarter financial statements, we made certain assumptions, including timing of initial deliveries, production and rate ramp profiles. We've assumed that we will begin 737 MAX aircraft production at low rates during the second quarter of 2020 as timing and conditions of return to service and COVID-19 impacts are better understood. We expect to gradually increase the production rate to 31 during 2021 and expect further gradual increases to correspond with market demand. We've assumed that the timing of the regulatory approvals will enable the 737 MAX deliveries to resume during the third quarter of 2020. We've also assumed the majority of the 737 MAX aircraft produced during the grounding and included within inventory will be delivered during the first year after the resumption of deliveries, although, again, at a slower pace than we've previously assumed. Again, the slower production and delivery rate ramp reflects commercial airline industry impacts as a result of COVID-19.

在準備我們的第一季度財務報表時，我們做出了某些假設，包括首次交付的時間、生產和速率上升曲線。我們假設我們將在 2020 年第二季度以較低的速度開始生產 737 MAX 飛機，因為對恢復服務的時間和條件以及 COVID-19 的影響有了更好的了解。我們預計在 2021 年逐步將生產率提高到 31，並預計進一步逐步增加以適應市場需求。我們假設監管批准的時間將使 737 MAX 的交付能夠在 2020 年第三季度恢復。我們還假設在停飛期間生產並包含在庫存中的大部分 737 MAX 飛機將在恢復交付後的第一年，儘管速度再次低於我們之前的預期。同樣，較慢的生產和交付率上升反映了 COVID-19 對商業航空業的影響。

In the first quarter, we reduced the number of aircraft in the 737 accounting quantity by 400 units as a result of the reduction to planned production rates due to COVID-19. The reduction to the planned production rates will result in further increases in costs to produce undelivered aircraft, primarily due to additional fixed cost absorption. This reduces program margins after deliveries resume. In addition, abnormally low production rates will extend for a longer period once production resumes, and as expected, to result in around $1 billion of additional abnormal production costs, increasing the total from approximately $4 billion to $5 billion. These will be expensed as incurred, and we expect the majority of these abnormal production costs to be expensed this year. During the first quarter, we expensed $797 million of abnormal production costs. Any changes to these assumptions could require us to recognize additional financial impacts.

在第一季度，由於 COVID-19 導致計劃生產率下降，我們將 737 飛機數量減少了 400 架。計劃生產率的降低將導致生產未交付飛機的成本進一步增加，這主要是由於額外的固定成本吸收。這會降低交付恢復後的計劃利潤。此外，一旦生產恢復，異常低的生產率將持續更長的時間，並且正如預期的那樣，將導致約 10 億美元的額外異常生產成本，使總額從約 40 億美元增加到 50 億美元。這些將在發生時計入費用，我們預計這些異常生產成本中的大部分將在今年計入費用。第一季度，我們支出了 7.97 億美元的異常生產成本。這些假設的任何變化都可能要求我們確認額外的財務影響。

There's no material change to our estimate of potential concessions and other considerations to customers for disruption related to the MAX grounding and associated delivery delays. In the first quarter, we reduced the liability balance by approximately $700 million, primarily through cash payments. We continue to address the impact individually, customer-by-customer, including assessing the impacts that the MAX disruption is having on their operations in light of COVID-19 pandemic. We also continue to express -- expect any concessions or other considerations to be provided over a number of years with the cash impact to be more front-loaded in the first few years.

對於與 MAX 停飛和相關交付延遲相關的中斷，我們對客戶的潛在讓步和其他考慮因素的估計沒有重大變化。第一季度，我們主要通過現金支付將負債餘額減少了約 7 億美元。我們將繼續逐個客戶解決影響，包括根據 COVID-19 大流行評估 MAX 中斷對其運營的影響。我們還繼續表示 - 期望在幾年內提供任何讓步或其他考慮，現金影響將在頭幾年更多地提前加載。

Let's now move to the Commercial Airplanes on Slide 7. Our Commercial Airplanes business revenue decreased to $6.2 billion during the quarter, reflecting lower deliveries, primarily by the 737 MAX grounding as well as impacts of COVID-19. Operating margins declined to negative 33.3% due to the following: lower delivery volume, $797 million of abnormal costs from the temporary suspension of the MAX program mentioned earlier; a $336 million charge related to the 737 next-generation frame-fitting component, also known as the pickle fork, and the repair costs associated with that; lower 787 margins, primarily due to rate reductions related to COVID-19; and $137 million of abnormal production costs from the temporary suspension of Puget Sound operations in response to COVID-19. We saw approximately 1 week impact of these costs in the quarter. We expect to see additional abnormal costs in the second quarter related to suspension of our Puget Sound and also our Charleston sites due to COVID-19 through April and early May. The 787 program margin decreased in the quarter, primarily due to lower planned production rates, which drove additional fixed cost absorption, higher disruption costs and a 100-unit contraction of the accounting quantity, requiring us to recognize the remaining deferred balance over fewer aircraft. BCA backlog includes over 5,000 airplanes valued at $352 billion.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 7 上的商用飛機。我們的商用飛機業務收入在本季度下降至 62 億美元，反映出交付量減少，這主要是由於 737 MAX 停飛以及 COVID-19 的影響。營業利潤率下降至負值 33.3%，原因如下：交付量下降，前文提到的 MAX 項目暫停導致 7.97 億美元的異常成本；一筆 3.36 億美元的費用與 737 的下一代框架裝配部件（也稱為 pickle fork）有關，以及與之相關的維修費用；較低的 787 利潤率，主要是由於與 COVID-19 相關的費率降低；因應對 COVID-19 而暫停 Puget Sound 運營造成的 1.37 億美元異常生產成本。我們在本季度看到了這些成本大約 1 週的影響。由於 COVID-19 到 4 月和 5 月初，我們預計在第二季度會看到額外的異常成本，這些成本與我們的 Puget Sound 和我們的 Charleston 站點暫停有關。本季度 787 項目利潤率下降，主要是由於較低的計劃生產率，這推動了額外的固定成本吸收、更高的中斷成本和 100 架的會計數量收縮，要求我們在更少的飛機上確認剩餘的遞延餘額。 BCA 積壓訂單包括價值 3520 億美元的 5,000 多架飛機。

As Dave mentioned earlier, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted aircraft demand. We're taking actions as a result of these new realities by adjusting production rates and our infrastructure, which will position us for the future and help us bridge to recovery. These rate decisions are based on current assessment of our demand environment, and we will continue to closely monitor these factors that affect our skyline and make rate adjustments as appropriate in the future.

正如 Dave 之前提到的，COVID-19 大流行嚴重影響了飛機需求。我們正在根據這些新現實採取行動，調整生產率和我們的基礎設施，這將使我們為未來做好準備並幫助我們過渡到復蘇。這些費率決定是基於當前對我們需求環境的評估，我們將繼續密切關注影響我們天際線的這些因素，並在未來進行適當的費率調整。

Let's now move to Defense, Space & Security on Slide 8. First quarter revenue decreased to $6 billion, primarily driven by the charge on the KC-46A Tanker; BDS operating margins of negative 3.2%, primarily due to pretax charge of $827 million for the KC-46A Tanker, of which $551 million was driven by the costs associated with the agreement signed in April with the U.S. Air Force to develop and integrate our new remote vision system; while the remaining costs reflect productivity inefficiencies and COVID-19-related factory disruption. A number of other programs, including the VC-25B, were also impacted by COVID-19, further reducing margin in the quarter. There are provisions of the CARES Act in our contracts that may provide an opportunity to recover some of these costs related to COVID-19 over time, and we'll continue to evaluate them. During the quarter, BGS won key contracts worth $6 billion, and our backlog now stands at $64 billion with 28% from outside the United States.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 上的國防、空間和安全。第一季度收入下降到 60 億美元，這主要是由於 KC-46A 加油機的費用； BDS 營業利潤率為負 3.2%，主要原因是 KC-46A 加油機的稅前費用為 8.27 億美元，其中 5.51 億美元是與 4 月份與美國空軍簽署的開發和整合我們新系統的協議相關的成本。遙視系統；而剩餘的成本反映了生產力低下和與 COVID-19 相關的工廠中斷。包括 VC-25B 在內的許多其他項目也受到 COVID-19 的影響，進一步降低了本季度的利潤率。我們的合同中有 CARES 法案的條款，這些條款可能會提供機會隨著時間的推移收回與 COVID-19 相關的部分成本，我們將繼續對其進行評估。本季度，BGS 贏得了價值 60 億美元的重要合同，我們目前的積壓訂單為 640 億美元，其中 28% 來自美國以外。

Let's turn to Boeing Global Services results on Slide 9. In the first quarter, Global Services revenue was flat at $4.6 billion, reflecting higher government services volume, largely offset by lower commercial service volume due to COVID-19. BGS operating margin increased to 15.3%, primarily due to favorable government service performance. During the quarter, BGS won key contract awards worth approximately $4 billion, which brings its backlog now to approximately $23 billion. We only saw the beginning of the impact of COVID-19 on our commercial services demand for the first quarter, and we expect COVID-19 to have significantly larger impact on the BGS business in future periods. To respond to this changing market dynamic, we are taking a number of proactive steps to rightsize and ultimately better position our business for these new market realities. These include employment actions as well as proactively taking steps to rightsize our inventory and tailor our portfolio to ensure that we're positioned to serve our customers, both through this challenging time and when the industry begins to recover.

讓我們看看幻燈片 9 上的波音全球服務業績。第一季度，全球服務收入持平，為 46 億美元，反映出政府服務量增加，這在很大程度上被 COVID-19 導致的商業服務量減少所抵消。 BGS 營業利潤率增至 15.3%，主要是由於良好的政府服務表現。在本季度，BGS 贏得了價值約 40 億美元的關鍵合同授予，使其積壓訂單現在達到約 230 億美元。我們只看到了 COVID-19 對第一季度商業服務需求的影響的開始，我們預計 COVID-19 將在未來期間對 BGS 業務產生更大的影響。為了應對這種不斷變化的市場動態，我們正在採取一些積極措施來調整業務規模，並最終更好地定位我們的業務以適應這些新的市場現實。這些包括僱傭行動以及積極採取措施調整我們的庫存並調整我們的產品組合，以確保我們能夠在這個充滿挑戰的時期和行業開始復蘇時為我們的客戶提供服務。

Let's turn now to cash flow on Slide 10. During our last earnings call, we shared that the use of cash flow this year is expected to be greater than 2019. Clearly, COVID-19 has made our cash flow situation even more challenging in 2020. The shift and severe impact that this had on the airlines and the global economy has added significant pressure on our cash receipts. Operating cash flow for the first quarter was negative $4.3 billion, driven by the lower commercial airplane delivery volume, advanced payments and impact of COVID-19 and timing of receipts and expenditures. And as discussed, COVID-19 also caused delivery and production disruption in the quarter. Also in the quarter, we spent $428 million on capital expenditures, paid $1.2 billion in dividends which were declared last December, and paid $2.2 billion of debt maturity.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 10 上的現金流。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們分享了今年的現金流使用預計將超過 2019 年。顯然，COVID-19 使我們的現金流狀況在 2020 年更具挑戰性. 這對航空公司和全球經濟的轉變和嚴重影響給我們的現金收入增加了巨大壓力。第一季度的運營現金流為負 43 億美元，原因是商用飛機交付量下降、預付款和 COVID-19 的影響以及收支時間安排。正如所討論的，COVID-19 還導致本季度的交付和生產中斷。同樣在本季度，我們在資本支出上花費了 4.28 億美元，支付了去年 12 月宣布的 12 億美元股息，並支付了 22 億美元的到期債務。

COVID-19 pandemic clearly presenting unprecedented challenges for our industry and our company. We're taking a number of actions to accelerate and conserve cash. In March 2020, we suspended payment of our dividend until further notice. Since April 2019, we've suspended our share repurchase program. And in March 2020, our Board of Directors terminated its prior authorization to repurchase shares of the company's common stock. And as previously mentioned, we have taken action to reduce production rates in our commercial business, and we have furloughed certain employees. And as Dave discussed, we'll be taking workforce actions through a combination of voluntary layoffs, attrition and involuntary layoffs as necessary. We have and we will continue to reduce discretionary spending, also reducing or deferring research and development and capital expenditures, but we will continue spending in key priorities and technologies that will be critical to our future and to our customers' success.

COVID-19 大流行顯然給我們的行業和我們的公司帶來了前所未有的挑戰。我們正在採取一系列行動來加速和節省現金。 2020 年 3 月，我們暫停支付股息，直至另行通知。自 2019 年 4 月以來，我們暫停了股票回購計劃。 2020 年 3 月，我們的董事會終止了回購公司普通股的事先授權。如前所述，我們已採取行動降低商業業務的生產率，並讓某些員工休假。正如戴夫所討論的那樣，我們將在必要時通過自願裁員、自然減員和非自願裁員的組合來採取勞動力行動。我們已經並將繼續減少可自由支配的支出，同時減少或推遲研發和資本支出，但我們將繼續在對我們的未來和客戶的成功至關重要的關鍵優先事項和技術上進行支出。

We're working with our government customers to assess and mitigate any impacts associated with COVID-19 pandemic. We appreciate the steps that the Department of Defense has taken to work with its industry partners to improve near-term liquidity in the forms of increased progress payment rates and reductions in withholds, among other initiatives. In pursuit of the CARES Act, we're also deferring certain tax payments.

我們正在與我們的政府客戶合作，以評估和減輕與 COVID-19 大流行相關的任何影響。我們讚賞國防部採取的與其行業合作夥伴合作的步驟，以提高進度支付率和減少預扣稅等形式改善近期流動性。為了執行 CARES 法案，我們還推遲了某些稅款的支付。

We are working with our supply chain partners to carefully manage liquidity, but at the same time, doing everything we can do to manage the stability and health of our supply chain as we manage through this demand shock to protect the long-term health of the U.S. aerospace industry. We are focused on the best ways to keep liquidity flowing through our business and to our supply chain through this period. The most important source of liquidity for our suppliers is good credit of the OEM and Tier 1 suppliers.

我們正在與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴合作，謹慎管理流動性，但與此同時，在我們應對這種需求衝擊以保護供應鏈的長期健康時，我們將竭盡所能來管理我們供應鏈的穩定性和健康。美國航天工業。在此期間，我們專注於保持流動性通過我們的業務和供應鏈流動的最佳方式。我們供應商最重要的流動性來源是原始設備製造商和一級供應商的良好信用。

As I mentioned, prior to COVID-19, we were tracking our internal first quarter and full year forecast. Also as mentioned, COVID-19 is clearly putting additional pressure on 2020 cash flow, and we expect operating cash to be more negative in 2020. We also expect a slower cash flow recovery going forward due to the revised 737 MAX delivery profile and the new widebody production rates.

正如我所提到的，在 COVID-19 之前，我們一直在跟踪我們內部的第一季度和全年預測。同樣如前所述，COVID-19 顯然給 2020 年的現金流帶來了額外壓力，我們預計 2020 年的運營現金將更加負。我們還預計，由於修改後的 737 MAX 交付情況和新的寬體機生產率。

Outside commercial airplanes, in commercial services, we expect cash flow generation to be solid and in line with earnings on the government side of our business.

在商用飛機之外，在商業服務方面，我們預計現金流量的產生將是穩定的，並且與我們業務的政府方面的收益一致。

Let's now move to Slide 11, and we'll discuss liquidity position and financial -- finance plan. As previously discussed, we drew down the $13.8 billion delayed draw term loan early to help shore up our liquidity position as we work through the current challenges. Also in the quarter, we paid down $2.2 billion of debt maturity, resulting in an $11.6 billion increase, bringing the total debt balance now to $38.9 billion. We ended the quarter with $15.5 billion of cash and marketable securities. Again, due to COVID-19, our daily use of cash has continued to reduce this balance. We continue to have access to our $9.6 billion revolving credit facility, which, to date, has not been drawn upon. Given the significant impact of COVID-19 on our operating cash, we are proactively managing our cash position and working to access additional liquidity. We believe that government's support will be critical to ensuring our industry's access to liquidity, and we continue to evaluate options in the capital markets as well as funding options from the U.S. government via the U.S. Treasury and various federal reserve programs. We will continue to review all available access and select the best options for our company. We believe through a combination of our actions and our ability to access additional liquidity, we will be able to obtain sufficient cash to fund our operations.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 11，我們將討論流動性狀況和財務 - 財務計劃。如前所述，我們提前提取了 138 億美元的延遲提取定期貸款，以幫助在我們應對當前挑戰的過程中鞏固我們的流動性頭寸。同樣在本季度，我們償還了 22 億美元的到期債務，導致增加 116 億美元，使總債務餘額現在達到 389 億美元。我們在本季度結束時擁有 155 億美元的現金和有價證券。同樣，由於 COVID-19，我們日常使用的現金繼續減少此餘額。我們將繼續獲得 96 億美元的循環信貸額度，但迄今為止尚未動用。鑑於 COVID-19 對我們的運營現金產生重大影響，我們正在積極管理我們的現金頭寸並努力獲得額外的流動性。我們認為，政府的支持對於確保我們的行業獲得流動性至關重要，我們將繼續評估資本市場的選擇以及美國政府通過美國財政部和各種聯邦儲備計劃提供的資金選擇。我們將繼續審查所有可用的訪問權限，並為我們的公司選擇最佳選項。我們相信，通過我們的行動和我們獲得額外流動性的能力的結合，我們將能夠獲得足夠的現金來為我們的運營提供資金。

Managing our liquidity and balance sheet leverage are top priorities as we navigate this challenging environment. We plan to immediately reduce our debt levels once our cash flow generation returns to more normal levels. Again, we will not lose sight of making necessary investments in our business, our people, new technology and better processes and tools that are critical to our future. This includes recent organizational changes, as Dave mentioned, to simplify and streamline roles and responsibilities and prepare now for the post pandemic industry footprint. As part of that, I'm excited to take on a new role and work closely with our teams across the business units to drive operational excellence and restore production and supply chain health as we and the broader aerospace industry recover from COVID-19 pandemic and rebuild stronger.

在我們應對這個充滿挑戰的環境時，管理我們的流動性和資產負債表槓桿是首要任務。一旦我們的現金流量恢復到更正常的水平，我們計劃立即降低我們的債務水平。同樣，我們不會忽視對我們的業務、我們的人員、新技術以及對我們的未來至關重要的更好的流程和工具進行必要的投資。正如 Dave 提到的，這包括最近的組織變革，以簡化和精簡角色和職責，並為大流行後的行業足跡做好準備。作為其中的一部分，我很高興擔任新角色並與我們各業務部門的團隊密切合作，以推動卓越運營並恢復生產和供應鏈健康，因為我們和更廣泛的航空航天業從 COVID-19 大流行和重建更強大。

The current environment is obviously very challenging and extremely dynamic. We're staying fully engaged with our customers, continually assessing the changing environment to ensure we have the right mind about the near- and longer-term demand. And as we discussed, we're taking and will continue to take appropriate action to bridge the recovery. With our company and the U.S. aerospace industry and the 17,000 suppliers supporting it, can remain healthy and be well positioned to capture future opportunities when we all emerge on the other side of this crisis.

當前的環境顯然非常具有挑戰性和極富活力。我們與客戶保持充分接觸，不斷評估不斷變化的環境，以確保我們對近期和長期需求有正確的認識。正如我們所討論的那樣，我們正在並將繼續採取適當的行動來彌合復甦。在我們公司和美國航空航天業以及支持它的 17,000 家供應商的支持下，我們可以保持健康並處於有利地位，以便在我們都走出這場危機的另一端時抓住未來的機遇。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Dave for some closing comments.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給戴夫，以獲得一些結束評論。

Thanks, Greg. We're in an unprecedented period for the industry and the world, and I'm humbled and privileged to lead the talented people of Boeing. We are and will be taking the right action to navigate through this pandemic, support our workforce, maintain supply chain continuity and stability and position for a changing market.

謝謝，格雷格。我們正處於行業和世界前所未有的時期，我很榮幸能夠領導波音公司的人才。我們正在並將採取正確的行動來應對這一流行病，支持我們的員工隊伍，保持供應鏈的連續性和穩定性，並在不斷變化的市場中佔據一席之地。

We continue to support our defense customers in their critical national security missions. We are progressing towards the safe return to service of the 737 MAX, and we are driving safety, quality and operational excellence into all that we do every day. And through it all, we are keeping the health of our employees, their families and our communities top of mind.

我們繼續支持我們的國防客戶執行其重要的國家安全任務。我們正朝著 737 MAX 安全恢復服務的方向前進，我們正在將安全、質量和卓越運營融入我們每天所做的一切。通過這一切，我們將員工、他們的家人和我們社區的健康放在首位。

We believe the long-term industry fundamentals remain strong, and air travel will recover. Our portfolio of products and technology is well positioned, and we're confident we will emerge from this crisis and thrive again as a leader of our industry. History has proven Boeing is a company that rises to these challenges.

我們認為，長期行業基本面依然強勁，航空旅行將會復蘇。我們的產品和技術組合定位良好，我們相信我們將擺脫這場危機，並再次成為我們行業的領導者。歷史證明，波音是一家能夠迎接這些挑戰的公司。

With that, Greg and I will be happy to take your questions. Thank you.

這樣，格雷格和我將很樂意回答您的問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

I don't know if this question is for Dave or Greg, but maybe just, Dave, the pace of deliveries for the stored fleet over -- once you get back to certification in Q3 over, I guess, the majority, you're going to be looking to deliver over kind of a 12-month period. And then squaring that against the warming up of the production line and trying to get to a target of 31 aircraft just seems like a lot of deliveries. Maybe you could just kind of walk us through kind of how you're arriving at that. I know that, that's -- just given the backdrop of what we're seeing in air travel right now.

我不知道這個問題是給戴夫還是格雷格的，但也許只是，戴夫，存儲車隊的交付速度結束了——一旦你在第三季度回到認證結束，我想，大多數人，你是將尋求在 12 個月的時間內交付。然後將其與生產線的預熱相比較，並試圖達到 31 架飛機的目標，這似乎需要大量交付。也許您可以向我們介紹一下您是如何做到這一點的。我知道，那是 - 只是考慮到我們現在在航空旅行中看到的背景。

Yes. Thank you. Number one, as you probably know and has been reported on widely, we have been having conversations, intense ones, for the better part of a month with our MAX customers about delivery and when to take them. And it's, I would call it, a wide variation with respect to what they ask for. Some want them right away. Some of them want to defer for quite a while. Our assessment is reflected in these numbers based on those interactions. And yes, there's more to be had, but we think it sort of accurately reflects that. And if anything, in light of the, now, all of the government resources that had been provided to many of the airlines, which a month ago, were still in doubt. Some of that has settled down.

是的。謝謝。第一，正如您可能知道並已被廣泛報導的那樣，在一個月的大部分時間裡，我們一直在與我們的 MAX 客戶就交貨和何時取貨進行激烈的對話。而且，我會稱之為，關於他們所要求的內容的廣泛變化。有些人馬上就想要它們。他們中的一些人想推遲一段時間。我們的評估反映在基於這些互動的這些數字中。是的，還有更多，但我們認為它準確地反映了這一點。如果有的話，鑑於現在，政府向許多航空公司提供的所有資源，一個月前仍然存在疑問。其中一些已經安定下來。

So -- now, with respect to priorities. Our priority will be to deliver the finished goods inventory that we have. And as a result, the production rate is the one that we will sort of change based on what happens in the marketplace. Marketplace gets more robust for any reason, we'll increase that rate sooner rather than later. And if it defers and/or gets any worse, we will do the opposite. So the variable in this is going to be the production rate. And the rate we've chosen now, this 31 number, and a slow pace to get to 31, reflects everything we know about the conversations with all of our MAX customers.

所以——現在，關於優先事項。我們的首要任務是交付我們擁有的成品庫存。因此，生產率是我們將根據市場上發生的情況而改變的。市場因任何原因變得更加強大，我們會盡快提高該比率。如果它推遲和/或變得更糟，我們將反其道而行之。所以這裡的變量將是生產率。我們現在選擇的比率，這個 31 的數字，以及達到 31 的緩慢速度，反映了我們對與所有 MAX 客戶的對話所了解的一切。

Our next question is from Rob Spingarn with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Spingarn 和 Crédit Suisse。

Greg, this one's for you, Greg. Let's say that in the 787 -- 7 787s per month and 31 MAXes in 2022, and, I guess, 3 777s is the new normal. What kind of free cash flow profile would you have with that, assuming stable BDS and a reasonable recovery at BGS I'm talking about 2022.

格雷格，這是給你的，格雷格。假設在 787 中——2022 年每月 7 787 架和 31 架 MAX，我猜 3 777 是新常態。假設 BDS 穩定且 BGS 合理復甦，我說的是 2022 年，你會有什麼樣的自由現金流狀況。

Yes. Yes. Well, clearly, Rob, to Peter's question, to Dave, that is the -- I would say, the single biggest driver. To your point, we've kind of laid out, at least currently, how we're thinking about production rates in that time frame. But the single biggest driver of that will be MAX. And not only priority one, delivering off that ramp as being the first step, but then that production rate increase from there. And so, obviously, the market's going to inform us how we can -- if we have the right profile that we've established today based on the numerous discussions we've had with the customer. But that will be the single biggest driver within that period. And then, I'd say outside of that is the 777 to 777X. As you know, 777X is a use of cash this year, will peak this year. We expect it to be a use of cash next year. But then, it's cash flow-positive in the following year. So that transition that will take place will be key to 2022 cash flow. Obviously, we expect 2022 to be much better than what we're experiencing this year and next, but those will be the real, I'll say, key operational drivers that will allow us to get there.

是的。是的。好吧，很明顯，Rob，對於 Peter 的問題，對於 Dave，那是——我會說，最大的驅動因素。就您的觀點而言，至少目前，我們已經制定了我們如何考慮該時間範圍內的生產率。但其中最大的單一驅動因素將是 MAX。不僅是優先事項，將斜坡交付作為第一步，而且生產率會從那裡提高。因此，很明顯，市場將告訴我們如何做——如果我們擁有我們今天根據與客戶進行的多次討論而建立的正確形象。但這將是那個時期內最大的單一驅動因素。然後，我想說的是 777 到 777X。大家知道，777X是今年用的現金，今年會達到頂峰。我們預計明年將使用現金。但隨後，它在第二年的現金流為正。因此，即將發生的轉變將是 2022 年現金流的關鍵。顯然，我們預計 2022 年會比今年和明年的情況好得多，但我要說的是，這些將是真正的關鍵運營驅動因素，使我們能夠實現目標。

But Greg, is there any way to quantify what cash flow looks like with 787 at 7 a month, half of what the peak rate has been, and with the 737 million just a little over half what that targeted mature rate would be? How do we think about what cash flow looks like in that environment?

但是格雷格，有沒有什麼方法可以量化 787 每月 7 的現金流量，峰值利率的一半，而 7.37 億隻是目標成熟利率的一半多一點？我們如何看待那種環境下的現金流量？

Yes. I don't -- Rob, I don't want to get into specifics on that time frame because, obviously, as we sit here today, 2022 feels like a long way away, considering what we're navigating. But it will be -- obviously, it will be a positive cash flow in that period with those key drivers. Now how positive? It will really obviously depend on rates even further going out -- and not delivery rates as much as, but production rates and advances that could impact 2022 positively or negatively depending on where rates go from there. But those will be the big drivers. And like I said, now with these production rates we've established, that's our best assessment at this time. And that could change, and we'll size accordingly to do that. But 2022 starts to feel like a more normal year, certainly, than what we've experienced in '19 and what we're going to experience in '20.

是的。我不——羅伯，我不想詳細說明那個時間框架，因為顯然，當我們今天坐在這裡時，考慮到我們正在航行的內容，2022 年感覺很遙遠。但它會 - 顯然，在那些關鍵驅動因素的推動下，那段時間將產生正現金流。現在有多積極？很明顯，這將取決於進一步的利率——而不是交付率，而是可能對 2022 年產生積極或消極影響的生產率和進步，具體取決於利率從那裡走向何方。但這些將是主要的驅動力。就像我說的，現在我們已經確定了這些生產率，這是我們目前最好的評估。這可能會改變，我們會相應地調整規模來做到這一點。但 2022 年開始感覺像是一個更正常的一年，當然，比我們在 19 年經歷的和我們將在 20 年經歷的要多。

Our next question's from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Couple of questions about liquidity and capital structure. I mean, you've got the $15 billion of cash on the balance sheet, but also about $5 billion of short-term debt and burning cash. Can you talk about the time line? Can you talk about maybe the $60 billion-plus number for the industry that you guys put out there several weeks ago and kind of what was in that and how you think about it now? And can you talk about whether Boeing needs to be an investment grade-rated company?

關於流動性和資本結構的幾個問題。我的意思是，你的資產負債表上有 150 億美元的現金，但還有大約 50 億美元的短期債務和燒錢。能談談時間線嗎？你能談談幾週前你們提出的這個行業超過 600 億美元的數字嗎？那裡面有什麼以及你現在如何看待它？您能否談談波音是否需要成為一家投資級評級公司？

Yes. Maybe I'll let Dave address the industry, and then I'll follow up.

是的。也許我會讓 Dave 解決行業問題，然後我會跟進。

The $60 billion number, of course, was put together early in this process. And credit markets were as tight as they could be, and we were trying to assess the fragility of mostly the supply chain, frankly. And we do have some weak or soft spots in that supply chain. But with respect to Boeing's role in the health of the supply chain, I think everybody here knows that the real leverage for us is when we are sound and our credit is good and we place orders against all of our supply chains. Then in fact, that provides the liquidity that they need ultimately to make the adjustments that they're going to make in response for our production rates. So that, in and of itself, whatever ultimately we do and the liquidity we provide to our suppliers is most important. But our number was meant to represent sort of the whole -- all of the supply chain, 17,000 suppliers, the Tier 1s and the support that the Tier 1s might need, and I can't speak for that. And so, again, the $60 billion number was, in fact, an industry number, not a Boeing-specific number.

當然，600 億美元的數字是在此過程的早期匯總的。信貸市場非常緊張，坦率地說，我們正試圖評估主要是供應鏈的脆弱性。我們在該供應鏈中確實存在一些薄弱環節。但關於波音在供應鏈健康中的作用，我想在座的每個人都知道，對我們來說真正的槓桿是當我們健全且我們的信用良好並且我們對我們所有的供應鏈下訂單時。事實上，這提供了他們最終需要的流動性，以便他們根據我們的生產率做出調整。因此，就其本身而言，無論我們最終做什麼以及我們向供應商提供的流動性都是最重要的。但我們的數字代表了整體——所有供應鏈、17,000 家供應商、一級供應商和一級供應商可能需要的支持，我不能代表這一點。因此，600 億美元的數字實際上是一個行業數字，而不是特定於波音公司的數字。

Yes. And then Seth, just as a -- your second part of your question around being investment grade. Certainly, we would like to maintain being investment grade. And I think, as you've heard and seen, that we're doing everything possible to do that. But look, the market's probably going to impact that more than anything. Fortunately, as you know, we started that position of strength with our balance sheet that's allowed us to navigate it. And as Dave and I outlined, we're taking all the right steps to manage liquidity day in and day out and prepare for a recovery on the other side. But at the end of the day, it's going to be what it's going to be on the investment grade. But certainly, we'd prefer to stay investment grade. And again, I think we're doing all the -- taking all the right actions to try to maintain that.

是的。然后賽斯，就像你關於投資級別的問題的第二部分一樣。當然，我們希望維持投資級別。而且我認為，正如您所聽到和看到的那樣，我們正在盡一切可能做到這一點。但是看，市場可能會對它產生更大的影響。幸運的是，如您所知，我們從資產負債表開始了這一優勢地位，這使我們能夠駕馭它。正如戴夫和我所概述的那樣，我們正在採取所有正確的步驟來日復一日地管理流動性，並為另一端的複蘇做好準備。但在一天結束時，它將成為投資級別的東西。但當然，我們更願意保持投資級別。再一次，我認為我們正在盡一切努力——採取所有正確的行動來維持這一點。

Our next question is from Carter Copeland with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Carter Copeland。

Just -- Greg, just quickly on the 87. I just want to make sure I heard you right on the block reduction. I think you said 100 units. I wondered if you can just give some color on why to reduce that? Or is that a lack of visibility around unsold pricing? And then just with respect to that, what that did to the deferred production, I mean, it looks like a $2 billion number in the quarter. That would kind of imply that you've shaved that program margin down to a pretty razor-thin level. Am I missing something in the math there?

只是 - 格雷格，很快就到了 87。我只是想確保我聽到了你關於減少區塊的正確意見。我想你說的是 100 個單位。我想知道你是否可以給出一些顏色來說明為什麼要減少它？或者是缺乏對未售出定價的可見性？然後就此而言，這對延期生產做了什麼，我的意思是，這個季度看起來像是 20 億美元的數字。這有點意味著您已經將該程序的利潤率削減到非常薄的水平。我在數學上遺漏了什麼嗎？

No. I think you got it. I think you got right. I mean, the contraction in the cost base was driven by time. So it's staying within the 5-year period that we have on cost basis. So as a result of producing fewer units, that caused us to contract that cost base by 100 units.

不，我想你明白了。我認為你是對的。我的意思是，成本基礎的收縮是由時間驅動的。所以它保持在我們基於成本的 5 年期限內。因此，由於生產較少的單位，這導致我們將成本基數縮減 100 單位。

I would say even with that contraction, when you look at margin going forward on the 787, even with the lower production rates, net-net, on a unit basis, it holds up pretty well. And the real key driver is that, even with the lower volume, like I said, we're going to be impacted by the fixed cost. But you kind of come back to the fundamentals on the backlog and the profile of the program going forward. When you look at model mix, you look at supplier step-down, and even with our own productivity, it is impacted, like I said, but not impacted as much as I think some would expect. So I think those fundamentals, I would ask, don't lose sight of those because there's still a key driver to cash margin on the program.

我會說，即使有這種收縮，當你看一下 787 的未來利潤率時，即使生產率較低，淨淨值，單位基礎上，它仍然保持得很好。真正的關鍵驅動因素是，即使產量較低，就像我說的那樣，我們也會受到固定成本的影響。但是你有點回到積壓的基礎知識和未來計劃的概況。當您查看模型組合時，您會查看供應商的降級，即使我們自己的生產力也會受到影響，就像我說的那樣，但影響沒有我認為有些人預期的那麼大。所以我認為這些基本面，我會問，不要忽視這些，因為該計劃的現金利潤率仍然是一個關鍵驅動因素。

Yes. It's just GAAP. All right.

是的。這只是公認會計原則。好的。

Yes. You got it. Thanks.

是的。你說對了。謝謝。

Just other -- maybe one other comment with respect to the market backdrop on the 787. The demand for the 87 is pretty strong. And our issue is, in our assumptions, and we think we're right, is that the international route structures are going to come back much slower than the domestic ones. And as a result, the 87 suffers for that. But otherwise, the airplane's performance, its utilization right now in the marketplace is pretty amazing. So we feel good about the airplane. But this pushover, based on the assumptions we've made, it is what it is.

關於 787 的市場背景，還有其他評論。對 87 的需求非常強勁。我們的問題是，在我們的假設中，我們認為我們是對的，國際航線結構的恢復速度將比國內航線結構慢得多。結果，87 人因此受苦。但除此之外，這架飛機的性能及其目前在市場上的利用率非常驚人。所以我們對這架飛機感覺很好。但是，根據我們所做的假設，這種推倒是事實。

And next, we'll go to Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將與高盛一起去 Noah Poponak。

I wanted to try, if it all possible, to get precise or more precise on -- it's clearly challenging out there, but just how many of your customers are attempting to revise their position in the delivery skyline? Because the traffic growth numbers and just the way it feels, it looks and feels like you could imagine literally every single one of your customers having a conversation with you about deferring or canceling. But you are maintaining 10 a month on the 87 for the year, which would suggest that's not happening. I'm pretty surprised by that. You're telling us your conversations with your MAX customers suggest they still want the airplane. Some -- for a decent amount of them, some were close to where they originally wanted it. So I don't know if there's any way to quantify what percentage of your customers are asking to move versus what percentage of your customers are just sticking to what they had previously. What percentage of the backlog do you expect to be canceled? I'm just trying to get some kind of sense for the degree of turmoil in the immediate term with your customers' ability to take airplanes.

如果可能的話，我想嘗試精確或更精確——這顯然具有挑戰性，但您的客戶中有多少人正試圖改變他們在交付天際線中的位置？因為流量增長數字以及它的感覺，看起來和感覺就像你可以想像你的每一位客戶都在與你討論推遲或取消。但是您在 87 年中每月保持 10 次，這表明這不會發生。我對此感到非常驚訝。您告訴我們您與 MAX 客戶的談話表明他們仍然想要這架飛機。有些——對於相當數量的人來說，有些接近他們最初想要的地方。所以我不知道是否有任何方法可以量化您的客戶中有多少百分比要求搬家，而有多少百分比的客戶只是堅持他們以前擁有的東西。您希望取消多少百分比的積壓工作？我只是想通過您的客戶乘坐飛機的能力來了解短期內的動盪程度。

So let me take a swing at that. First of all, I'm going to assume, if we haven't heard from, literally, all of our customers by now, we will, with respect to what they would like to do. And these discussions are constructive. And we do everything in our power to defer when we can, swap where we can, et cetera. And remember, a lot of our customers, all of them are invested with respect to PDPs that, of course, we have retained. So each of these discussions, believe it or not, has been quite constructive and productive. And everything we know about their initial requests are reflected in our new production rates. And it's not to suggest that there isn't risk remaining on the demand side. But we're not -- like, we're not looking through rose-colored glasses. We're actually doing quite the opposite, which is to meet as many of these requests as we can, negotiate outcomes where we can, and we have a whole bunch of them. And then reflect that accurately in the production rates in the forward view. And that is exactly where we sit. So anyway, it's surprising.

因此，讓我嘗試一下。首先，我要假設，如果我們現在還沒有從字面上聽到我們所有客戶的消息，我們會，關於他們想做什麼。這些討論是建設性的。我們會竭盡全力盡可能地推遲，盡可能地交換等等。請記住，我們的很多客戶，他們都對我們保留的 PDP 進行了投資。所以不管你信不信，這些討論中的每一個都非常有建設性和富有成效。我們對他們最初要求的了解都反映在我們新的生產率上。這並不是說需求方面沒有風險。但我們不是 - 就像，我們沒有透過玫瑰色眼鏡看。我們實際上在做恰恰相反的事情，即盡可能多地滿足這些要求，盡可能地協商結果，我們有一大堆這樣的要求。然後在前瞻性視圖中準確反映生產率。這正是我們坐的地方。所以無論如何，這是令人驚訝的。

But the one thing that's probably surprised me a bit is the extent to which this will accelerate fleet rationalization in the customer base. You know this scenario. We went from a growth -- a robust growth environment, where even if they had plans to retire a portion of their fleet, they couldn't do it, simply because the market wasn't robust as it was. And they've now gone into the polar opposite. And so this is that moment where rationalization efforts get big. And believe it or not, in some cases, it even requires that maybe new airplanes be ordered simply to rationalize the fleet that they're trying to put out of business.

但可能讓我感到有點驚訝的一件事是，這將在多大程度上加速客戶群中的機隊合理化。你知道這種情況。我們從一個增長——一個強勁的增長環境中走出來，即使他們計劃退役一部分機隊，他們也做不到，僅僅是因為市場不像以前那樣強勁。而他們現在已經進入了對立面。因此，這就是合理化努力變大的時刻。不管你信不信，在某些情況下，它甚至可能需要訂購新飛機，只是為了使他們試圖停業的機隊合理化。

So this is a very interesting set of dynamics. The fleet planning efforts are in full swing for everybody. And again, I think we've reflected everything we know.

所以這是一組非常有趣的動態。每個人的艦隊規劃工作都在如火如荼地進行。再一次，我認為我們已經反映了我們所知道的一切。

Dave, when I went to look up how much of the market is sale leaseback, I remind myself -- I was surprised to remind myself how large that is. A lot of the large publicly-traded leasing companies have raised capital recently. You have state-owned customers. And you just have customers that have a good financial position coming into this. Is it reasonable to assume that, that set of customers that I just described can hold -- as challenging as things are, can hold you together through 2020 until things are normalized and you're growing again in 2021?

戴夫，當我去查看有多少市場是售後回租時，我提醒自己——我很驚訝地提醒自己這個市場有多大。許多大型上市租賃公司最近都籌集了資金。你有國有客戶。而且您只有財務狀況良好的客戶才能參與其中。是否可以合理地假設，我剛才描述的那組客戶可以保持——儘管事情充滿挑戰，可以讓你在 2020 年團結一致，直到事情恢復正常，你在 2021 年再次增長？

Well, in my experience, and I lived through it in my life at GECAS back in the post 9/11 world, it turns out that, that is exactly what holds up. And we believe that, in fact, it will hold up again. And a lot of the discussions we've had have been with financial markets and lessors, as you would imagine. So I think your assumption is correct. And part of our assumptions in this process reflect the discussions we've had with financial sources. So I guess, yes is the answer. I can't put an absolute number on it for you, but it's clearly reflected in our numbers.

好吧，根據我的經驗，我在 9/11 後的世界中在 GECAS 的生活中經歷了它，事實證明，這正是堅持的理由。我們相信，事實上，它會再次站穩腳跟。正如您想像的那樣，我們已經與金融市場和出租人進行了很多討論。所以我認為你的假設是正確的。我們在此過程中的部分假設反映了我們與財務來源的討論。所以我想，答案是肯定的。我無法為您提供絕對數字，但它清楚地反映在我們的數字中。

Our next question is from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein。

On liquidity, this morning, Airbus management described a lot of the same liquidity issues that you're describing today, with a focus on the supply chain's health. And it appears that the biggest cash risk that you're facing is also with the supply chain. You had the discussion around the $60 billion before. But when you look at the responsibility for the cash needs of suppliers that crosses Boeing, that crosses Airbus with a lot of overlaps, you've got support potentially from governments and then the suppliers themselves. So it looks like there are a wide range of potential scenarios here for what the cash outcome could be for Boeing related to the supply chain. Can you talk about how you work with the different constituencies to try and address this? And can you give us a sense as to what the range of outcomes could be here as you look over the next year?

關於流動性，今天上午，空客管理層描述了很多與您今天描述的相同的流動性問題，重點是供應鏈的健康狀況。您面臨的最大現金風險似乎也與供應鏈有關。您之前曾就 600 億美元進行過討論。但是當你審視供應商對現金需求的責任時，波音、空中客車有很多重疊，你可能會得到政府和供應商本身的支持。因此，對於波音公司與供應鏈相關的現金結果，這裡似乎存在多種潛在情景。你能談談你如何與不同的選區合作來嘗試解決這個問題嗎？您能否讓我們了解下一年的成果範圍？

Well, let me take a crack at this first. The right order of business is the one that is going on right before our eyes. And the first is to get the airlines from the pre-COVID moment into the post-COVID moment. And for them to be warm when they get there so that they can begin that recovery process, that, in and of itself, puts some stability out there in the marketplace. And it allows us, Boeing, to now reflect medium-term demand, long-term demand and make the adjustments in accordance with that. We believe we have a balance sheet, and we believe we have tools available to us and credit markets that are open enough to us, to be able to get from here to there and get there with room to spare. As we do that, our good credit then extends into the supply chain. And the supply chain then has to make a whole bunch of adjustments on their own to reflect the new production requirements at both Airbus and Boeing. So again, the airlines bridging that moment; Boeing, Airbus access to credit and their ability to finance from here to that medium-term moment; and then the supply chain's ability to now restructure themselves to meet that new demand, but always relying on our credit and always relying on our factories being open, that's a real advantage. And then the tools that the CARES Act has put in place, and we do work closely with the administration on trying to get them to understand where the soft spots might be in that overall supply chain and direct those tools to that supply chain. And that's the process that's unfolding before our eyes. Believe it or not, I think it's robust and it's working. And so I'm not anticipating, at least at this moment in time, any big or serious repercussions from supply chain issues. In some ways, just in the last 2 or 3 weeks, as governments have stepped up with their tools, et cetera, there's been a little more stability than there was just prior.

好吧，讓我先看看這個。正確的業務順序是發生在我們眼前的事情。首先是讓航空公司從 COVID 前時刻進入 COVID 後時刻。並讓他們到達那裡時感到溫暖，以便他們可以開始恢復過程，這本身就為市場帶來了一些穩定性。它使我們波音公司現在能夠反映中期需求、長期需求並據此做出調整。我們相信我們有一個資產負債表，我們相信我們有可供我們使用的工具和對我們足夠開放的信貸市場，能夠從這裡到那裡，到達那裡有餘地。當我們這樣做時，我們的良好信用就會延伸到供應鏈中。然後供應鏈必須自行進行一大堆調整，以反映空客和波音的新生產要求。再次，航空公司彌合了那一刻；波音、空客獲得信貸的途徑及其從現在到中期的融資能力；然後供應鏈現在能夠自我重組以滿足新需求，但始終依賴我們的信用並始終依賴我們的工廠開工，這是一個真正的優勢。然後是 CARES 法案實施的工具，我們與政府密切合作，試圖讓他們了解整個供應鏈中可能存在的軟點，並將這些工具引導到該供應鏈。這就是展現在我們眼前的過程。信不信由你，我認為它很強大並且正在運行。因此，至少在這個時刻，我預計供應鏈問題不會產生任何重大或嚴重的影響。在某些方面，就在過去的 2 或 3 週內，隨著政府加強了他們的工具等，比以前更加穩定了。

So is it fair to say, as you and Greg look at the range of possible outcomes here, with respect to the suppliers, when you're talking about feeling fairly confident in this now, you're able to say you can take off, say, some worst-case scenarios that perhaps were there back when you mentioned that $60 billion. So that even under the sort of current worst case, you're fairly confident you're in solid shape for this year?

所以公平地說，當你和格雷格在這裡查看可能的結果範圍時，關於供應商，當你談論現在對此感到相當自信時，你可以說你可以起飛，比如，當您提到 600 億美元時，可能會出現一些最壞的情況。因此，即使在當前最壞的情況下，您也相當有信心今年的狀態良好？

We are. And I know you would imagine, but we have a lot of folks who help us with this. And we have stress test the case that we're putting forward in many, many ways that are much more difficult than what we believe we're going to do. And we do get through it. And we do -- ultimately, when we do take on more debt, we also believe strongly that we're going to start paying it down. Now at what rate we pay it down is the real question. But when we get to some form of stability at these production rates, and I believe we will, we'll be in good shape to begin that process of returning money to our lenders.

我們是。我知道你會想像，但我們有很多人在這方面幫助我們。我們對我們以很多很多方式提出的案例進行了壓力測試，這比我們認為我們將要做的要困難得多。我們確實挺過去了。我們確實做到了——最終，當我們承擔更多債務時，我們也堅信我們將開始償還債務。現在，真正的問題是我們以什麼速度還清它。但是，當我們以這些生產率達到某種形式的穩定時，我相信我們會的，我們將處於良好狀態，可以開始向我們的貸方返還資金的過程。

Our next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Maybe changing the focus a little bit to product strategy. With the Embraer deal not playing out, and then NMA being off the table, how do you think about competing against Airbus who has a product at the lower end of the market and a product at the higher end of the narrowbody market, where it seems like the MAXes is -- it's fine, but it's -- how can I say, it's sandwiched between aircraft that are optimized on both ends of the market by your competitor? So particularly in an environment where you're constrained on your R&D spend and your development spend.

也許將重點稍微轉移到產品策略上。由於與 Embraer 的交易沒有完成，然後 NMA 被排除在外，你如何看待與空中客車公司的競爭，空中客車公司的產品在市場的低端和產品在窄體市場的高端，看起來就像 MAXes 一樣——它很好，但它——我怎麼能說，它夾在你的競爭對手在市場兩端優化的飛機之間？因此，尤其是在您的研發支出和開發支出受到限制的環境中。

Well, with respect to the MAX, I have a lot more confidence in the MAX and its place in the market than maybe the question implies. We have a value prop that actually is still pretty good. In some ways, if airplane loads want to get smaller as a result of maybe a smaller set of passengers flying on them in the next several years, it might actually play to us. We have a robust backlog with it. And we're not out of the product development business. We're definitely in it. We are invested in capabilities with respect to manufacturing and engineering that we believe will offer a very differentiated product in whatever strategy we choose. And we're fast at work at that stuff, and we continue to be at work on it. It will probably not be applied to an NMA, and I think we've conveyed that to the marketplace. But this time, actually, in some of these market changes, and then those important technologies we're investing -- and actually, I have a lot of faith, both in the product that we currently serve it with, and then secondly, the capabilities we'll bring to whatever we eventually develop as a next gen. And in the meantime, on the widebody world, and particularly in the freighter world, we like our strategies. We're going to continue to invest in it. And I believe, at the moment, that's our -- probably our biggest priority.

好吧，關於 MAX，我對 MAX 及其在市場上的地位比問題所暗示的更有信心。我們有一個實際上仍然相當不錯的價值支柱。在某些方面，如果由於未來幾年乘坐飛機的乘客數量可能減少而導致飛機載重量變小，這實際上可能對我們有用。我們有大量的積壓工作。我們並沒有脫離產品開發業務。我們肯定在裡面。我們投資於製造和工程方面的能力，我們相信無論我們選擇何種戰略，這些能力都將提供非常差異化的產品。我們在這方面的工作速度很快，而且我們會繼續努力。它可能不會應用於 NMA，我認為我們已經將其傳達給了市場。但是這一次，實際上，在其中一些市場變化中，然後是我們正在投資的那些重要技術——實際上，我對我們目前為其提供服務的產品很有信心，其次，我們將為下一代最終開發的任何東西帶來的能力。與此同時，在寬體機世界，尤其是貨機世界，我們喜歡我們的策略。我們將繼續對其進行投資。我相信，目前，這可能是我們的 - 可能是我們最優先考慮的事情。

So -- and then at the low end, Embraer's not going away. They're going to fight tooth and nail to win at that low end of the marketplace, and they'll battle Airbus, the former Bombardier, in doing so. And I don't think that's going to move the market in any significant way and/or affect the future of Boeing in any significant way. So anyway, that's probably it in a nutshell.

所以——然後在低端，巴西航空工業公司並沒有消失。他們將竭盡全力贏得低端市場，他們將與前龐巴迪公司空中客車公司展開競爭。而且我認為這不會以任何重大方式推動市場和/或以任何重大方式影響波音的未來。所以無論如何，簡而言之可能就是這樣。

Our next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Dave, you mentioned on widebodies. I'm just following up on this. You seem pretty comfortable that the bottom of demand is in. Given this is largely a replacement market and granted not uniform, what type of retirement rates are you thinking for the industry?

戴夫，你在寬體飛機上提到過。我只是在跟進此事。您似乎對需求的底部感到很滿意。鑑於這主要是一個替代市場並且不統一，您認為該行業的退休率是什麼類型？

I don't have a retirement number on the tip of my tongue. Suffice to say, there are going to -- the retirements are going to accelerate, in my view, considerably. And airplanes are going to get put down permanently at a faster rate. That's the most important part of this, that they down -- they get put down permanently, not that they just get parked. And so I do think that actually is going to play to our favor. I love where our product line is. I think it's fundamentally advantaged. Unfortunately, just this international route structure, I just think, is going to take longer to recover. And as a result, we'll suffer with respect to ramp. But I do feel very good about it. And I do think retirements are going to fuel a fair amount of our demand.

我的舌尖上沒有退休號碼。可以說，在我看來，退休將大大加快。飛機將以更快的速度永久降落。這是其中最重要的部分，他們會倒下——他們會被永久地放下，而不是他們只是被停了下來。所以我確實認為這實際上會對我們有利。我喜歡我們的產品線所在的位置。我認為這是根本上的優勢。不幸的是，我只是認為這種國際航線結構需要更長的時間才能恢復。結果，我們將在斜坡方面受到影響。但我確實對此感覺很好。而且我確實認為退休會刺激我們的相當一部分需求。

Yes. And just to add to it, Sheila, as you know very well, when you look at the number of airplanes that are 20-plus years old, and it's a significant amount. And then to Dave's point, at least what we've been picking up on the customer side, they will be put down and won't be coming back up. And then when you look at what we have in the pipeline or in the backlog to some of those customers from an efficiency point of view, obviously, there's significant improvements. And it crosses the entire product line. So we'll see how it goes. But I think across the globe, we're hearing a lot more commitment to retiring that aged fleet, and to Dave's point, retiring it for good and not bringing it back. And we'll continue to monitor that, obviously. And we'll take that into account as we think about our production schedules going forward.

是的。補充一下，Sheila，正如你所知，當你查看機齡超過 20 年的飛機數量時，這是一個很大的數字。然後就戴夫的觀點而言，至少我們在客戶方面一直在接受的東西，他們會被放下，不會再回來了。然後，當您從效率的角度查看我們正在處理或積壓給其中一些客戶的內容時，顯然，有顯著的改進。它跨越了整個產品線。所以我們會看看進展如何。但我認為在全球範圍內，我們聽到了更多關於讓老舊艦隊退役的承諾，就戴夫的觀點而言，永久退役而不是將其帶回來。顯然，我們將繼續對此進行監控。我們會在考慮未來的生產計劃時考慮到這一點。

Greg, just on that point, should we think about production in line with deliveries? So production equates to deliveries for widebodies in 2020 and '21 and beyond?

格雷格，就這一點而言，我們是否應該根據交付來考慮生產？那麼，生產等於 2020 年和 21 世紀及以後的寬體飛機交付量嗎？

Yes. I think the only one that may be a little off is the transition from the 777 to 777X through that period as we're building the balance of the flight test airplanes. But outside of that, pretty good correlation production rate to delivery rate. Of course, MAX, MAX being unique, as we talked earlier.

是的。我認為唯一可能有點偏離的是我們正在建立試飛飛機的平衡期間從 777 到 777X 的過渡。但除此之外，生產率與交付率的相關性非常好。當然，正如我們之前所說，MAX，MAX 是獨一無二的。

Our next question's from Jon Raviv with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Jon Raviv。

I'm just going to ask a question about the 45% of the business that is defense right now. I think on the last call, you mentioned that defense cash flow might be a little bit down year-on-year this year due to timing mostly. But how do you see that playing out going forward? And I ask that in the context also of a lot of the growth items in your defense portfolio being related to very new programs. We've taken on some risk on the front end in terms of investments. How do you see those dynamics playing out over the next few years as a way to plug some of the hole being created by aero clearly being down here?

我只想問一個關於現在 45% 的國防業務的問題。我想在最後一次電話會議上，你提到今年國防現金流量可能同比略有下降，主要是由於時間安排。但你如何看待未來的發展？我問的是，在你們國防投資組合中的許多增長項目也與非常新的項目相關的情況下。在投資方面，我們在前端承擔了一些風險。您如何看待這些動態在接下來的幾年中發揮作用，作為一種方式來填補航空顯然在這裡造成的一些漏洞？

Greg, do you want to take that one? Or you want me to?

格雷格，你要拿那個嗎？或者你想讓我？

Sorry, I missed part of it. I apologize. It cut out on me.

抱歉，我漏掉了一部分。我道歉。它切斷了我。

This is with respect to our defense business, and I'll start with it. You are, in fact, correct. I -- 2019, where we did have some balance, the defense business was 45%. This year, of course, the defense business will probably be bigger than the commercial business. And that will probably hold for a little while, of course, with these new rates and deliveries. So that's an important part of our company that I'm not sure a lot of people reflect.

這是關於我們的國防業務，我將從它開始。事實上，你是對的。我——2019 年，我們確實取得了一些平衡，國防業務佔 45%。當然，今年國防業務可能會比商業業務規模更大。當然，在這些新的費率和交付情況下，這可能會持續一段時間。所以這是我們公司的重要組成部分，我不確定很多人是否反映了這一點。

The risk elements associated with our defense portfolio, now, I'm going to knock on wood while I say it, but I believe we've derisked much of our portfolio largely as a result of the significant issues we've had on tanker and, of course, the continuous write-offs that we've had to experience. I do believe that, that program now is exactly where it needs to be. We're going to finish well. Importantly, our customer's going to feel like we have finished well, and we've delivered a product that is second to none. So I do believe that even the tanker future is significantly brighter than the one we've experienced up until now. And then our fighter aircraft, we will continue to supplement or attempt to supplement our order stream and production build. And largely, with the help of a defense department whose posture is to want to do those kinds of things, particularly in this moment in time. So again, feel good about that.

與我們的國防投資組合相關的風險因素，現在，我要說的時候敲木頭，但我相信我們已經降低了大部分投資組合的風險，這主要是由於我們在油輪和，當然，我們不得不經歷的連續註銷。我確實相信，該程序現在正是它需要的地方。我們會好好完成的。重要的是，我們的客戶會覺得我們做得很好，而且我們交付的產品是首屈一指的。所以我確實相信，即使是油輪的未來也比我們迄今為止所經歷的要光明得多。然後是我們的戰鬥機，我們將繼續補充或嘗試補充我們的訂單流和生產構建。很大程度上，在國防部的幫助下，他們的姿態是想做這些事情，尤其是在這個時刻。再次，對此感覺良好。

And on the development front, our development programs at the early stages are all looking quite good. We're not -- we're really not off-plan on anything. And usually by now, we have a sniff that we might be. So again, I feel pretty good about the risk profile of our defense business despite the difficulties that we've attempted to overcome in just the last couple of years.

在發展方面，我們早期的發展計劃看起來都很好。我們不是——我們真的沒有任何計劃外的事情。通常到現在為止，我們可能已經嗅到了。因此，儘管我們在過去幾年試圖克服困難，但我再次對我們國防業務的風險狀況感到非常滿意。

Greg, I'm not sure if you want to add anything to that?

格雷格，我不確定你是否想補充什麼？

Yes. No, I agree with everything you said, Dave. And obviously, when you look at the portfolio mix, John, that MAX ramp-up, that's where it will start to differentiate, go back to a richer mix on the commercial side. But outside of that, I think it's pretty much great. Dave outlined it. And on the development programs, as Dave said, we've tried to derisk a lot of these upfront, especially some of those wins that we had most recently. And outside of that, the portfolio is actually performing well, as is the BGS government services side of the business. So we got to keep that engine running smoothly as well.

是的。不，我同意你所說的一切，戴夫。顯然，當您查看投資組合組合時，約翰，MAX 的提升，這就是它將開始與眾不同的地方，回到商業方面更豐富的組合。但除此之外，我認為它非常棒。戴夫概述了它。在開發計劃中，正如戴夫所說，我們已經嘗試預先消除其中的很多風險，尤其是我們最近取得的一些勝利。除此之外，投資組合實際上表現良好，BGS 政府服務業務方面也是如此。所以我們也必須保持引擎平穩運行。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And that will be from Myles Walton with UBS.

這將來自 Myles Walton 和 UBS。

In a prior question, I think you talked about 2022 cash flow -- free cash flow as being kind of the pointing north for us to look at that. I'm just curious. In '21, is there any reason we shouldn't expect that to be a sizable positive cash flow year given the liquidation you're talking about on the MAX? Or are the advances headwinds enough for '21 to also be negative?

在之前的一個問題中，我認為你談到了 2022 年的現金流——自由現金流是我們關注的方向。我只是好奇。在 21 年，考慮到您在 MAX 上談論的清算，我們有什麼理由不應該期望這是一個可觀的正現金流年？還是進步的逆風足以讓 21 年也出現負面影響？

Yes. No. Definitely, '21 is, at least as we have a forecasted today, much better than '20. A lot of key elements in that is certainly the MAX again. The profile of the MAX deliveries coming off the ramp and the production. There is more impact on the progress payment side. But again, as I talked about operationally on the 787, we're still seeing good cash conversion on the program. And then -- and like I said, 777X has improved from a cash burn in '21 as well. So lots of moving pieces that there always is, but the single biggest driver in there is MAX, the rate ramp on MAX. And that's what it will contribute to a much more improved 2021 versus 2020.

是的。不，肯定的是，至少正如我們今天預測的那樣，21 年比 20 年要好得多。其中的許多關鍵要素肯定又是 MAX。 MAX 交付量和生產情況的概況。進度款方面影響較大。但同樣，正如我在 787 上談到的運營，我們仍然看到該計劃的良好現金轉換。然後——就像我說的，777X 也從 21 年的燒錢中有所改善。總是有很多移動的部分，但其中最大的驅動因素是 MAX，即 MAX 的速率斜坡。這就是它將有助於 2021 年比 2020 年取得更大進步的原因。

But sorry, Greg, just to underline that, though improved, is it positive? Do you kind of feel comfortable enough to say that?

但抱歉，格雷格，只是想強調一下，雖然有所改善，但它是積極的嗎？你覺得可以這麼說嗎？

Yes. Our current forecast, based on all the rate discussions we just had today, is a positive 2021 cash flow.

是的。根據我們今天剛剛進行的所有利率討論，我們目前的預測是 2021 年現金流為正。

All right. So that completes Boeing company's first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Thank you all for joining.

好的。至此，波音公司 2020 年第一季度財報電話會議圓滿結束。謝謝大家的加入。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。