艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2012 first-quarter results conference call on April 18, 2012. Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions).

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2012年4月18日ASML 2012年第一季業績電話會議。在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。ASML介紹完後，會有提問的機會。（操作員指令）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations here at ASML. And I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and webcast.

謝謝接線員，女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網路廣播。

As the operator mentioned, the subject of today's call is ASML's 2012 first quarter results. Co-hosting today from our headquarters here in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is Mr. Eric Meurice, ASML's CEO; and Mr. Peter Wennink, ASML's CFO.

正如接線員所提到的，今天電話會議的主題是ASML的2012年第一季業績。今天，我們在荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部共同主持會議的有 ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice 先生； ASML 財務長 Peter Wennink 先生。

At this time, I'd like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and in our first quarter results presentation, both of which you can find on our website at ASML.com. This Safe Harbor statement will apply to this call and to all associated presentation materials. As a reminder, the length of the call will be 60 minutes. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Eric for a brief introduction.

此時，我想提請您注意今天的新聞稿和我們的第一季業績報告中的安全港聲明，您可以在我們的網站 ASML.com 上找到這兩項聲明。本安全港聲明將適用於本次電話會議及所有相關演示資料。提醒一下，通話時間為 60 分鐘。現在我想把電話轉給 Eric 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Craig. Good afternoon, good morning. Thank you for attending the first quarter 2012 results conference call.

謝謝你，克雷格。下午好，早安。感謝您參加2012年第一季業績電話會議。

Before we begin the Q&A session, as usual, Peter and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter and provide a view forward. As usual, Peter will start with a review of Q1 financial performance with comments on the short-term outlook. And I will complete this introduction with some further comments on our current market view update for the long-term.

在我們開始問答環節之前，像往常一樣，彼得和我想對第一季進行概述和評論，並提供未來的看法。像往常一樣，彼得將首先回顧第一季的財務業績，並對短期前景發表評論。最後，我將對我們目前的長期市場觀點更新發表一些進一步的評論，以完成本次介紹。

So, Peter, if you will.

那麼，彼得，如果你願意的話。

Thank you, Eric, and welcome to everyone.

謝謝你，艾瑞克，歡迎大家。

Summarizing our first quarter, sales came in at EUR1.25 billion, essentially the same as the previous quarter. This quarter's sales were again significantly skewed toward the foundry IDM sectors with 75% including noncritical KrF capacity additions. 9% of the first quarter sales went to the DRAM sector, representing only six system shipments.

總結第一季度，銷售額達到 12.5 億歐元，與上一季基本持平。本季的銷售額再次明顯偏向代工 IDM 領域，其中 75% 包括非關鍵的 KrF 產能增加。第一季銷售額的 9% 流向了 DRAM 領域，僅佔 6 個系統出貨量。

The average selling price of all systems shipped in the first quarter was EUR20.2 million. And this reflects the high KrF system shipments versus the previous quarter. Service and field option sales came in at EUR202 million, again, driven by the adoption of performance and housing field options.

第一季出貨的所有系統的平均售價為2020萬歐元。這反映出 KrF 系統出貨量較上一季增加。服務和現場選項銷售額達到 2.02 億歐元，這同樣受到性能和住房現場選項採用的推動。

We also recognized sales of one EUV system for a total amount of EUR44 million, which is one quarter earlier than planned. It is due to a faster-than-anticipated installation and customer acceptance process. This had an impact on our gross margin, by the way, the EUV shipment for the quarter of about 1.5 percentage points.

我們也確認了一套 EUV 系統的銷售額，總額為 4,400 萬歐元，比計畫提早了一個季度。這是因為安裝和客戶驗收過程比預期的快。順便說一下，這對我們的毛利率產生了影響，本季 EUV 出貨量約影響了 1.5 個百分點。

Updating on our previously-announced share buyback program, as of April 1, 2012 out of the total program, ASML had repurchased 29.8 million shares, of which 4.1 million shares in the first quarter for a total amount of EUR839 million, of which [EUR139 million] in Q1, giving an average buyback price of EUR28. The repurchased shares have been or will be canceled.

更新我們先前宣布的股票回購計劃，截至 2012 年 4 月 1 日，在整個計劃中，ASML 已回購 2980 萬股，其中第一季回購 410 萬股，總金額為 8.39 億歐元，其中第一季回購 [1.39 億歐元]，平均回購價格為 28.3 億歐元。回購股份已註銷或將被註銷。

At the end of the first quarter we have close to EUR3 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

第一季末，我們的現金和現金等價物接近30億歐元。

The first quarter net bookings came in at 36 systems, valued at EUR865 million. The booked average selling price shot up from EUR19.2 million in Q4 to EUR24 million in the first quarter. That is due to a product mix shift toward the most advanced tools.

第一季淨預訂量達到 36 個系統，價值 8.65 億歐元。預定平均售價從第四季的 1,920 萬歐元飆升至第一季的 2,400 萬歐元。這是由於產品組合轉變為最先進的工具。

Our first quarter bookings profile saw foundry increasing slightly to 74% of the total, followed by IDMs at 13%, NAND at 8% and DRAM at only 5%. Our order backlog at the end of the first quarter was EUR1.6 billion totaling 56 systems, with an impressive average selling price of EUR28.5 million.

我們第一季的預訂情況顯示，代工廠的預訂量略有增加，佔總量的 74%，其次是 IDM，佔 13%，NAND，佔 8%，DRAM 僅佔 5%。我們第一季末的訂單積壓總額為 16 億歐元，總計 56 個系統，平均售價高達 2,850 萬歐元。

The backlog profile at quarter end changed again as combined memory continued on a downward trend to only 23% of the total backlog versus 27% at the end of last year.

季度末的積壓情況再次發生變化，合併記憶體持續呈下降趨勢，僅佔總積壓訂單的 23%，而去年年底為 27%。

As to the outlook, we can confirm our earlier guidance of EUR2.4 billion net sales for the first half 2012, and given a continued solid six months of visibility, we can now say that the third quarter sales are expected to be stable at Q1 and Q2 levels. Based on this visibility and in combination with our first quarter backlog, we expect orders in the next quarter to adequately cover our sales expectation.

至於前景，我們可以確認我們先前對 2012 年上半年 24 億歐元淨銷售額的預測，並且鑑於六個月持續穩固的可見性，我們現在可以說，預計第三季度的銷售額將穩定在第一季度和第二季度的水平。基於這種可見性並結合我們第一季的積壓訂單，我們預計下一季的訂單將足以滿足我們的銷售預期。

We believe that specific quarterly order guidance has become less relevant over time due to the fact that fewer but larger customers are placing bigger and lumpier orders, making quarterly order patterns more and more imprecise. On top of that, customers have significantly increased their visibility towards us of their real shipment needs, leaving the order placements as a kind of secondary and almost administrative consideration in the business process.

我們認為，隨著時間的推移，具體的季度訂單指導變得越來越不相關，因為數量越來越少但規模越來越大的客戶下達的訂單越來越大、越來越不均勻，導致季度訂單模式越來越不精確。最重要的是，客戶對我們顯著提高了他們實際運輸需求的了解，而訂單的下達則成為業務流程中次要的、幾乎是行政性的考慮。

System demand is currently strongly driven by the continued need of foundry manufacturers to have capacity at the 28-nanometer node in an environment of very strong demand and heightened competition. We now expect this strong demand trend to continue for the remainder of the year.

目前，在需求強勁、競爭激烈的環境下，代工廠商對 28 奈米節點產能的持續需求強烈推動了系統需求。我們現在預計這種強勁的需求趨勢將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。

The NAND segment continues their aggressive shrink with an apparent moderation in wafer capacity additions in reaction to the current weakening NAND pricing. The continued difficult DRAM market environment is keeping the DRAM sector's share of our backlog at historically low levels.

NAND 領域持續大幅萎縮，由於目前 NAND 價格走弱，晶圓產能增加明顯放緩。持續艱難的 DRAM 市場環境導致 DRAM 部門在我們的積壓訂單中所佔份額處於歷史最低水平。

As for an update on the expected EUV shipments in 2012, system integration has begun here in Veldhoven, only 11 NXE.3300 systems on order. Current plans are to ship two of these systems later this year, with the remainder shipping in the first half of 2013.

至於 2012 年 EUV 出貨量預期更新，系統整合已在 Veldhoven 開始，訂單僅有 11 套 NXE.3300 系統。目前的計劃是在今年稍後推出兩套系統，其餘系統將於 2013 年上半年推出。

To compensate for the recent source delivery delays, we have decided to alter the shipment process for the first two systems, which means that the revenue will not be recognized until the systems are assembled and integrated at the customer site. Therefore, we do not expect the revenue recognition of these tools to occur until early 2013.

為了彌補最近的貨源交付延遲，我們決定改變前兩個系統的裝運流程，這意味著直到系統在客戶現場組裝和整合後才能確認收入。因此，我們預計這些工具的收入確認要到 2013 年初才會實現。

And finally, sales for the second quarter are expected to come in again at around EUR1.2 billion with a gross margin that will be about 43%.

最後，預計第二季的銷售額將再次達到約 12 億歐元，毛利率將達到約 43%。

R&D and SG&A expenses will remain constant versus the first quarter levels at EUR145 million for R&D and EUR55 million for SG&A in the quarter.

本季研發和銷售、一般及行政費用與第一季水準相比保持不變，研發費用為 1.45 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 5,500 萬歐元。

And with that, I would like to turn it back over to you, Eric.

現在，我想把發言權交還給你，艾瑞克。

Thank you, Peter. Well, as Peter mentioned, the short-term, mid-term demand for advance logic lithography capacity is stronger than we expected and guided at the beginning of the year, bridging nicely to 2013 sales when first we expect memory lithography capacity demand to pick up; and two, when we are able to ship and recognize the first EUV pre-production systems. So, short-term, mid-term looks very good.

謝謝你，彼得。嗯，正如 Peter 所提到的，短期和中期對先進邏輯光刻產能的需求比我們年初預期和指導的要強勁，與我們預計的 2013 年內存光刻產能需求回升的銷售情況很好地銜接在一起；二是，我們何時能夠交付並認可第一批 EUV 預生產系統。因此，短期和中期看起來非常好。

The longer-term future looks also positive for us, as articulated often during our quarterly results call. The lithography intensity should increase further when either of the two lithography technologies enabling the next generations of microelectronic technologies, so whether it is immersion multiple patterning or EUV -- when these two are introduced into production. Both technologies will cohabit until EUV becomes the only technology capable of imaging the next-generation device due to its lower cost and scalability.

正如我們在季度業績電話會議上多次表達的那樣，長期前景對我們來說也是樂觀的。當兩種光刻技術中的任何一種能夠實現下一代微電子技術時，光刻強度都應該進一步增加，因此無論是浸沒式多重圖案化還是 EUV——當這兩種技術被引入生產時。這兩種技術將共存，直到 EUV 因其成本較低且可擴展而成為唯一能夠對下一代設備進行成像的技術。

To keep our immersion leadership, which will be used in multiple patterning, we continue to enhance the overlay and throughput performance of our TWINSCAN NXT 1950 systems. We are certainly the market leader in immersion, as evidenced by one of our NXTs 1950s exceeding another productivity milestone by processing in a productive environment more than 4500 wafers per day with an overlay at about 4 nanometers. It's a great performance.

為了保持我們在多重圖案化領域的浸入式領先地位，我們將繼續增強 TWINSCAN NXT 1950 系統的覆蓋範圍和吞吐量效能。我們無疑是浸沒式技術的市場領導者，這一點從我們的一台 NXT（1950 型）設備突破生產力里程碑便可看出，該設備在生產環境中每天可處理超過 4500 片晶圓，覆蓋精度約為 4 奈米。這是一場精彩的表演。

We are planning further improvements with the introduction of our next-generation NXT at the end of this year, 2012, with the next level of performance in throughput, overlay, and focus. We also continue the development and introduction of a strengthened suite of holistic lithography software and hardware products, so as to enable the process window enlargement, process drift management and machine matching, which are all necessary for multi-part patterning requirements.

我們計劃在今年年底（2012 年）推出下一代 NXT，以實現進一步的改進，使吞吐量、覆蓋和焦點的性能達到新的水平。我們也將繼續開發和推出強化的整體光刻軟體和硬體產品套件，以實現製程視窗擴大、製程漂移管理和機器匹配，這些都是多部分圖案化要求所必需的。

Regarding EUV, we are certainly confirming steady progress, still with the objective to release a program in the summer for customer production ramps in 2014, so exactly as we said last call.

關於 EUV，我們確實確認了穩步進展，目標仍然是在 2014 年夏季發布一項計劃，以幫助客戶提高產量，正如我們上次所說的那樣。

As highlighted in our press release, we have installed six EUV preproduction tools now, NXE.3100. They are in use, imaging wafers, at customer site. They are contributing to the progress of the EUV fab infrastructure as over 9000 wafers have now been imaged on these systems to date.

正如我們在新聞稿中所強調的那樣，我們現在已經安裝了六個 EUV 預生產工具，NXE.3100。它們正在客戶現場使用，對晶圓進行成像。它們為 EUV 晶圓廠基礎設施的進步做出了貢獻，迄今為止，已有超過 9000 個晶圓在這些系統上成像。

These systems have also demonstrated an exceptional performance over all with the 16 -- sorry, 6-nanometer on-product overlay and with dedicated shock overlay of less than 2 nanometers. These are extraordinary performers.

這些系統還展示了卓越的性能，具有 16 奈米（抱歉，是 6 奈米）的產品覆蓋層和小於 2 奈米的專用衝擊覆蓋層。這些都是非凡的表演者。

As Peter already mentioned, we are also confirming at this moment the delivery of 11 of our NXE.3300B, which is our production systems, between Q4 2012, this year, and the summer of 2013.

正如 Peter 已經提到的，我們目前也確認將在今年 2012 年第四季至 2013 年夏季之間交付 11 台 NXE.3300B，這是我們的生產系統。

Regarding the source technologies stages, we still do not have a proven source power, the proven source power in situ, which would confirm our target throughput performance. But again, this was not planned in the first quarter. This has always been planned in the summer -- at the end of the summer. But we have made significant progress no matter what.

關於來源技術階段，我們仍然沒有經過驗證的來源功率，即經過驗證的現場來源功率，這將確認我們的目標吞吐量效能。但同樣，這並不是第一季的計劃。這件事總是在夏天——夏天結束時——進行計劃。但無論如何我們都取得了重大進展。

We have now demonstrated source power at 30 to 50 watts at high duty cycle for prolonged periods. These achievements are significant, as we only need 100 watts to achieve a 60 wafer per hour machine, which some customers will find acceptable for initial production implementation until we reach our nominal throughput specification of 125 wafers per hour.

我們現在已經證明，長時間高佔空比下的源功率可達 30 至 50 瓦。這些成就意義重大，因為我們只需要 100 瓦就能實現每小時 60 片晶圓的機器，在我們達到每小時 125 片晶圓的標稱吞吐量規格之前，一些客戶會認為這對於初始生產實施來說是可以接受的。

In view of this progress and although we have not yet confirmed, as I said, these higher powers integrated into the system, we have still -- we have now started negotiation on the next batch of orders of EUV systems, targeting mainly for customer production ramp expected to begin late 2013 and into 2014.

鑑於這一進展，儘管我們尚未確認，正如我所說，這些更高的功率已整合到系統中，但我們仍然 - 我們現在已經開始就下一批 EUV 系統訂單進行談判，主要針對預計於 2013 年底和 2014 年開始的客戶生產爬坡。

So in summary, we are definitely encouraged by the market demand development in the last quarter for the short-term and midterm for sales opportunities in the second half. We are additionally encouraged by our progress in EUV performance and the unwavering support that we are getting from our customers regarding this technology for ramp in 2014 as planned.

總而言之，上個季度的市場需求發展無疑為我們在短期和中期下半年的銷售機會帶來了鼓舞。此外，我們在 EUV 性能方面取得的進步以及客戶對此技術的堅定支持也令我們感到鼓舞，我們將按計劃在 2014 年實現量產。

With that, Peter and I would be pleased to take your questions.

因此，彼得和我很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Eric. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. But beforehand, as always, I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up, if necessary. Of course, this will allow us to get as many callers on today as possible.

謝謝你，埃里克。女士們，先生們，接線生將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程。但在此之前，和往常一樣，我希望您只問一個問題，如有必要，請進行簡短的後續追蹤。當然，這將使我們今天能夠接到盡可能多的來電。

Now, operator, would you go ahead with your instructions and then the first question, please?

現在，接線員，請您先執行指示，然後再回答第一個問題，好嗎？

(Operator Instructions). Mr. Simon Schafer. We seem to be having some difficulty with Mr. Simon Schafer. Nic Gaudois.

（操作員指令）。西蒙‧謝弗先生。我們似乎與西蒙·謝弗先生之間有些困難。尼克·高杜瓦。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Nic Gaudois.

尼克·高杜瓦。

Yes, it is Nic Gaudois from UBS. Just first question is on the comment you just made on the next-generation EUV tool for production, which should start being delivered in H2, 2013 and into 2014. Could you confirm where you see the initial requirements for volume production between DRAM 1x nanometer and logic as well?

是的，他是瑞銀的 Nic Gaudois。第一個問題是關於您剛才對下一代 EUV 生產工具的評論，該工具將於 2013 年下半年和 2014 年開始交付。您能否確認 DRAM 1x 奈米和邏輯之間大量生產的初始要求在哪裡？

And I guess it is too early to quantify it, but maybe give us some qualitative initial view on how you think this will develop basically in 2014. And then I have a follow-up question, thank you.

我認為現在量化還為時過早，但也許您可以就 2014 年基本情況如何發展給出一些定性的初步看法。然後我有一個後續問題，謝謝。

Okay, very good. So, as we said a numbers of time, there are certain numbers of phases when you introduce such a technology. The first phase is to have some R&D tools to do some recipes and confirm the technology. That's what we've been doing. And although there have been delays in our credibility, by the end of the day, the recipes are being made.

好的，非常好。因此，正如我們多次所說的，引入這種技術需要經歷若干個階段。第一階段是有一些研發工具來做一些配方並確認技術。這就是我們一直在做的事情。儘管我們的信譽有所延遲，但最終，食譜還是被製作出來了。

And the windows of opportunity is as you mentioned, and we have not lost any of them yet. The first window is DRAM 1x or -- so I think you call it 1x or 1y. They are very near the 20 nanometer. This seems to be very complicated to execute with multiple patterning. And the customers are ready to, in fact, wait for EUV to be ready to get there.

正如您所說，機會之窗已經存在，我們還沒有失去任何一個。第一個視窗是 DRAM 1x 或——所以我認為您稱之為 1x 或 1y。它們非常接近20奈米。使用多種模式來執行這個操作似乎非常複雜。事實上，客戶已經準備好等待 EUV 的到來。

And the competitive product that could also be very near a number-one need is the 14-nanometer logic node, which has shown in particular in the last three months, two major pushback by end customers using or attempting to use multi-patterning. They have seen two problems. One is a cost issue, which seems to be too high to justify the shrink if they do multi-patterning, and they also have seen a shrink factor limitation.

而最接近第一大需求的競爭產品是 14 奈米邏輯節點，該節點在過去三個月中尤其表現出終端客戶在使用或嘗試使用多重模式方面遭遇了兩大阻力。他們看到了兩個問題。一個是成本問題，如果進行多重圖案化，成本似乎太高，無法證明縮小是合理的，而且他們也看到了縮小因素的限制。

So in other terms, you go to 14 nanometer but you do not really reduce the die size as much as you should if you were to use EUV. So we are going -- we are having at this moment heated pressure from the people going into 1x DRAM, the first node below 20 and the 14-nanometer logic. And at this moment, the race is on to know who is going to be the first one to get into product.

換句話說，雖然你達到了 14 奈米，但並沒有像使用 EUV 那樣真正減少晶片尺寸。所以我們現在面臨著來自人們的巨大壓力，他們正進入 1x DRAM、20 以下的第一個節點和 14 奈米邏輯。此時，競爭已經開始，看誰能第一個將產品投入生產。

That will create demand in 2014 which we believe will be appropriate in terms of industrial capacity, meaning not too much and not small enough. So, perfectly, exactly in the numbers of tools that a Company like ours would want to do. If you do too many tools, it costs a lot of money. If you do not enough, it costs a lot of money for dilution purposes.

這將在2014年創造需求，我們認為這個需求就工業產能而言是適當的，也就是說不會太多也不會太少。因此，完美地，正如我們這樣的公司想要做的那樣，工具的數量是完全正確的。如果你做的工具太多，就會花很多錢。如果做得不夠，稀釋成本就會很高。

So we seem at this moment to have achieved a run rate target which is being discussed, and which I translated in the press release as, we are negotiating the first orders for 2014.

因此，目前我們似乎已經實現了正在討論的運行率目標，我在新聞稿中將其翻譯為，我們正在協商 2014 年的首批訂單。

Okay, understood. So we call it Goldilocks EUV, I guess.

好的，明白了。所以我們稱之為 Goldilocks EUV，我想。

Just moving -- just a quick follow-up on the more near-term, you added in your presentation of expecting NAND flash to recover later in the year. Could you maybe precisely, vis-a-vis the timeline, and whether you would expect all major customers to basically come back? Or some select customers are -- effectively some may have some specific circumstances, in particular in the context of overall memory consolidation?

只是移動 - 只是對近期情況的快速跟進，您在演示中補充說，預計 NAND 閃存將在今年晚些時候復蘇。您能否準確地說明時間表，以及您是否預計所有主要客戶基本上都會回來？或某些特定客戶－實際上某些人可能有一些特定情況，特別是在整體記憶鞏固的背景下？

We are a bit puzzled by the NAND flash business at this moment. We were expecting, in fact, then to start showing some positive color. But instead what we have had, and this is in fact a stronger positive news, is the NAND hasn't happened but the logic has, more than we thought. So this is good news. We can talk about that later.

我們目前對NAND快閃記憶體業務有點困惑。事實上，我們當時就期望它開始顯現出一些正面的色彩。但相反，我們得到的是，這實際上是一個更積極的消息，那就是 NAND 還沒有實現，但邏輯已經超越了我們的想像。所以這是個好消息。我們可以稍後再談論此事。

The NAND flash, however, will have to be much bigger than the current run rate, if you believe in the tablet numbers, in the smart phone numbers, and in the SSD numbers. If you just charter what you hear in the market, the statistics expected for those products, you would see a shortage of NAND as early as Q4. So now we are hopeful that this is not going to even happen in Q4, so that we stabilize nicely our sales between a good 2012 and a sustained 2013.

然而，如果你相信平板電腦數據、智慧型手機數據和 SSD 數據，那麼 NAND 快閃記憶體的容量必須比目前的運行率大得多。如果您只是根據市場上聽到的消息以及這些產品的預期統計數據，您會發現最早在第四季度就會出現 NAND 短缺。所以現在我們希望這種情況不會在第四季度發生，這樣我們就能在良好的 2012 年和持續的 2013 年之間穩定我們的銷售額。

Okay, that's clear. Thank you very much.

好的，很清楚。非常感謝。

Simon Schafer.

西蒙·謝弗。

Yes, thanks so much. It's Goldman Sachs.

是的，非常感謝。是高盛。

I guess my question is in terms of perhaps the lack of order outlook into the second quarter. I think I get the point about customer concentration. It's very evident that the foundries and IDM are obviously a bigger piece in terms of concentration.

我想我的問題是關於第二季訂單前景的缺乏。我想我明白了客戶集中度的要點。很明顯，從集中度來看，代工廠和IDM顯然佔據更大的份額。

But my sense is also that really wasn't all that meaningfully different in the first -- sorry, after Q4. And you were very comfortable indicating that orders would be at least flat. So I was just wondering what has changed in that.

但我的感覺是，在第一季——抱歉，在第四季之後——這確實並沒有什麼實質的不同。而且您非常放心地表示訂單至少會持平。所以我只是想知道其中發生了什麼變化。

Yes, I will be happy to answer that. I think orders are generally used by guys as a proxy for our sales, which is circling, but that's actually top line and ultimately drives the earnings per share.

是的，我很樂意回答這個問題。我認為訂單通常被人們用作我們銷售額的代理，這是循環的，但這實際上是營收，並最終推動每股收益。

Now, I think that is what we are exactly doing. We are giving you a sales guidance for the next two quarters with some, I would say, very positive consideration for the remainder of the year. In that sense, I think from an outlook point of view, we are not -- we are very clear, probably clearer than we have been in the past.

現在，我認為這就是我們正在做的事情。我們將為您提供未來兩個季度的銷售指導，我想說，我們對今年剩餘時間的銷售情況做出了非常積極的考慮。從這個意義上講，我認為從前景來看，我們不是——我們非常清楚，可能比過去更清楚。

Now on the order front, the point is that you have fewer customers, which is indeed true, and those customers are getting bigger. But also, the order sizes are getting bigger. So it means you can't have -- between the end of June and the end of July, you can have hundreds of millions of difference, so a very wide spread of when those orders are actually going to hit the books, which is no indication whatsoever of the outlook that we have on our shipment pattern.

現在就訂單方面而言，重點是客戶越來越少，這確實是事實，而且這些客戶的數量正在增加。但訂單規模也越來越大。所以這意味著你不可能有——在 6 月底和 7 月底之間，你可能會有數億美元的差額，因此這些訂單實際到達的時間會有很大的差異，這根本不能表明我們對出貨模式的前景。

So -- and this is the only reason why we are not doing this, because we want to be clear on what the outlook really is. And what the outlook is, is driven by sales and not by the orders, and that is why we are giving you sales, which we believe is a better indication.

所以——這也是我們不這樣做的唯一原因，因為我們想清楚地了解前景到底是什麼。前景是由銷售而不是訂單驅動的，這就是我們向您提供銷售數據的原因，我們認為這是一個更好的指標。

Got it, Peter, thanks so much. And my follow-up question would be, I guess in terms of orders and deliveries, it seems like actually KrF is perhaps somewhat higher, so clearly there is a good amount of capacity adds happening at the 28-nanometer node. And I think I would agree absolutely that for the 2x -- I mean 2.0 and 22 nanometer, there's clearly an avenue for intervention and aggressive upgrade paths from all of your customers at the leading edge.

明白了，彼得，非常感謝。我的後續問題是，我想就訂單和交付而言，實際上 KrF 似乎可能略高一些，因此顯然在 28 奈米節點上有大量產能增加。我認為我完全同意，對於 2x（我的意思是 2.0 和 22 奈米），顯然存在一條可供所有處於前沿的客戶進行幹預和積極升級的途徑。

But I guess I'm trying to get a sense as to whether you think there is perhaps a transition risk between the two nodes, just because it looks as if capacity has been very strong, specifically in KrF and some other capacity tools.

但我想了解您是否認為這兩個節點之間可能存在轉換風險，只是因為看起來容量非常強大，特別是在 KrF 和其他一些容量工具中。

No, I would think what we are getting more comfortable with at this moment is that to understand why we've been so positively surprised with logic. We were worried that there was excess capacity due to the fact that, as you know today, there are multiple players running after the same customers. So we were a bit worried that there is duplication.

不，我認為我們現在更加適應的是理解為什麼我們對邏輯如此驚訝。我們擔心會出現產能過剩的情況，因為正如大家今天所知，有多家公司在爭取同一個客戶。所以我們有點擔心有重複存在。

But this doesn't seem to be the case. And there are two factors. One is if you talk to foundry customers, you will see a lot of exciting products getting into mobile applications which requires power. And these things are hugely complex with very large die size. So this drives a lot of silicon square meters. So, that, we can test, check, touch.

但事實似乎並非如此。有兩個因素。一是如果你與代工客戶交談，你會看到很多令人興奮的產品進入需要電力的行動應用領域。這些東西極其複雜，而且晶片尺寸非常大。因此這會驅動大量的矽平方米。這樣，我們就可以測試、檢查、觸摸。

The second thing that we have now recalculated is the sizes of each of those nodes in compare to what we ship as units. And I'm happy to report that we are far from having yet, I would say, a stabilized capacity level necessary for normal node at 28. So it is we have another six to nine months of production and shipment of machines before we have delivered to the market, I would say, sort of mature, not high, level of wafer per month.

我們現在重新計算的第二件事是與我們作為單位運送的大小相比，每個節點的大小。我很高興地報告，我們還遠遠沒有達到正常節點 28 所需的穩定容量水準。因此，我們還需要六到九個月的時間來生產和運送機器，然後才能將產品推向市場，我想說，每月的晶圓產量已經比較成熟，但水平並不高。

After that, there is another engine for 2013 which is to be proven, but we are getting now significant interest, is the customers want to go from 28 to 22 already. And they do that because there is a drive of product again. So this is not now a driver due to volume, it is a driver due to product architecture. And as you know, there is fight in the ARM environment, et cetera, that forces this activity to happen.

此後，2013 年還有另一款引擎需要驗證，但我們現在引起了極大的興趣，客戶已經希望從 28 公升到 22 公升。他們這樣做是因為產品再次受到推動。所以現在這不是由數量決定的驅動因素，而是由產品架構決定的驅動因素。而且如您所知，ARM 環境等方面的鬥爭迫使這項活動得以發生。

So now what we discover is we have a former system that was in the logic arena, a node every two years, every 18 months that gets into a node every year, and therefore a faster ramp to stable numbers of wafers per month, and then immediately not replaced, but prolonged by another RAM. So that's what we see at this moment. So therefore, we do not see significant risk of these being wrong excess-type business decisions.

所以現在我們發現，我們有一個以前的系統，它處於邏輯領域，每兩年一個節點，每 18 個月每年進入一個節點，因此可以更快地達到每月穩定的晶圓數量，然後立即不被取代，而是由另一個 RAM 延長。這就是我們目前所看到的情況。因此，我們認為這些是錯誤的過度型商業決策並不會帶來重大風險。

If I were to be a negative pessimist, I would say, however, these are very complicated nodes, technology-wise, and you could always have issues of difficulties to --- of yield, the ramp, et cetera. But this probably would not impact the litho business. In fact, it could in fact create upside for us in case difficulties to run those things.

然而，如果我是一個消極悲觀主義者，我會說，這些都是非常複雜的節點，從技術角度來看，你總是會遇到一些困難——產量、坡道等等。但這可能不會影響光刻業務。事實上，如果運行這些事情遇到困難，它實際上可以為我們創造好處。

Thanks, Peter; thanks, Eric.

謝謝，彼得；謝謝，艾瑞克。

Kai Korschelt.

凱·科舍爾特。

Yes, it is Deutsche Bank. Thank you for taking my question.

是的，是德意志銀行。感謝您回答我的問題。

The first one was just on the -- if I could just cap on this comment, Eric, that you made I think on the second batch of EUV tools you're currently negotiating at the run rate 2014, 2015. I seem to remember the longer-term target was to ramp up your manufacturing capacity to about nine tools per quarter by 2015.

第一個問題只是關於——埃里克，如果我可以就你提出的這個評論做個總結的話，我認為你正在就 2014 年、2015 年的運行率談判的第二批 EUV 工具。我似乎記得長期目標是到 2015 年將製造能力提高到每季約 9 種工具。

Are you still thinking in these sort of dimensions? Or in the process of those negotiations is your thinking on that capacity maybe to increase or lower it, depending on the demand? That would be our first question.

您還在以這樣的維度思考嗎？或者在談判過程中，您是否考慮根據需求增加或降低產能？這是我們的第一個問題。

The second one was just quickly on the potential buyback extension that you talked about last quarter. Could you just remind us how much net or gross cash you think you need to run the business? Obviously, your Company is now bigger than it may have been two or three years ago, so if you could just remind us what the minimum level of cash you would need, thank you.

第二個問題是關於您上個季度談到的潛在回購延期。您能否提醒我們一下，您認為經營這項業務需要多少淨現金或總現金？顯然，您的公司現在比兩三年前規模更大，所以如果您能提醒我們您需要的最低現金水平是多少，謝謝。

So I will answer the buyback question and Peter is going to answer the EUV question -- no, I think -- (multiple speakers) I wish.

因此，我將回答回購問題，而 Peter 將回答 EUV 問題——不，我認為——（多位發言者）我希望如此。

So, the EUV question, yes, I would say that there is three stages off Goldilocks capacity with integration in this way. I would say the first year we will probably want to be at one unit a month, one unit a month, 1.5 units a month in the first year. Then we will go to a period of time at three per month, as you said, 36. And then we probably will -- mature business that we can see now in terms of technology at about 60 units per year, roughly.

因此，關於 EUV 問題，是的，我想說，透過這種方式進行集成，Goldilocks 容量可以分為三個階段。我想說，第一年我們可能希望達到每月一個單位，第一年每月一個單位，第一年每月 1.5 個單位。然後我們會進入每月三次的一段時間，正如你所說，36。然後我們可能會——就技術而言，我們現在可以看到成熟的業務大約每年有 60 個單位。

So you've got these three stages that is now being discussed, negotiated with most customers, so that we have the proper capacity to achieve this. So we start with one a month; we then go to three a month; and then we will go to whatever 60 is divided by 12 -- five a month.

因此，我們現在正在與大多數客戶討論和協商這三個階段，以便我們有適當的能力來實現這一目標。因此我們從每月一次開始；然後我們每月增加三次；然後我們將得到 60 除以 12 的結果——每月 5 個。

Now we'll do buybacks.

現在我們將進行回購。

Yes, we basically are still in the same position as we were last quarter, no change on that. I'd just like to reiterate that on the announced buyback program, which also would include the shares we need to buy back to cover for the share plans and the dividends, we still have more than the EUR0.5 billion to go. So that we will do, of course, first.

是的，我們基本上仍處於與上一季相同的狀態，沒有變化。我只想重申，在宣布的回購計劃中，我們仍然需要回購超過 5 億歐元的資金，其中還包括我們需要回購的股票以支付股票計劃和股息。當然，我們首先會這麼做。

Now your -- and that actually means that in the fourth quarter we always review with our Board the distribution policy for basically the next year, which includes dividends and share buybacks and the division between the two. So that's what we will do by the end of the year.

現在 - 這實際上意味著在第四季度我們總是與董事會一起審查下一年的分配政策，其中包括股息和股票回購以及兩者之間的分配。這就是我們今年年底要做的事。

And let there be no question in your mind, this is a very profitable and cash-generating Company. So in excess of what we need, we will keep giving that money back. There is no change whatsoever.

毫無疑問，這是一家獲利能力極強、現金流充足的公司。因此，對於超出我們需求的部分，我們將繼續返還這些錢。根本就沒有任何改變。

On the -- you could say basic cash balances that we would need a couple of years ago, like you rightfully basically indicated, we were smaller and we said between EUR1 billion and EUR1.5 billion. It is probably now between the EUR1.5 billion and EUR2 billion. But above that, you will see us in a cash return mode.

關於——您可以說我們幾年前所需的基本現金餘額，就像您正確指出的那樣，我們的規模較小，我們說的是 10 億歐元到 15 億歐元之間。目前可能在15億歐元至20億歐元之間。但除此之外，您還會看到我們處於現金回饋模式。

So I think that it is for now, when we would announce the potential share buyback clearly is a function of where we are at the end of the year in terms of our decision-making. And like I said last time, you do not do a little tiny buyback [EUR400 million]. You want to do it for a big number. And I would not expect that number to be anything lower than EUR500 million.

因此我認為，就目前而言，我們何時宣布潛在的股票回購顯然取決於我們年底的決策情況。正如我上次所說的，你不會進行小額回購（4 億歐元）。您想為了一個大數字而這麼做。我預計這個數字不會低於 5 億歐元。

So that needs to be a big, big chunk. So it's not going to be imminent, because we first have to do the first EUR500 million left on the remainder of the buyback program and on the dividend payment.

所以這需要很大很大一部分。所以這不會很快發生，因為我們首先必須完成回購計畫剩餘部分和股利支付中剩下的前 5 億歐元。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Satya Kumar.

薩蒂亞·庫馬爾。

Yes, thanks for taking my question -- from Credit Suisse.

是的，謝謝瑞士信貸回答我的問題。

Eric, you talked about 14 nanometer multiple patterning having issues. Are you referring to 14 nanometer for logic or were you referring to foundry processes?

艾瑞克，您談到了 14 奈米多重圖案化存在的問題。您指的是 14 奈米邏輯製程還是代工製程？

Well, foundry processes in the following sense, that the foundries are having another challenge that the IDMs would not have. The challenge is that they have to deliver design rules which are less restrictive. And they have to deliver a shrink factor which is very aggressive. So, yes, my comment on 14 nanometer being a competitor to being in the first to go concerns more the foundry environment than it concerns the microprocessor environment.

嗯，從以下意義上講，代工廠工藝是這樣的：代工廠面臨IDM不會遇到的另一個挑戰。挑戰在於他們必須提供限制較少的設計規則。他們必須提供非常積極的收縮因素。所以，是的，我對 14 奈米作為第一個採用的競爭對手的評論更多地涉及代工環境，而不是微處理器環境。

Okay, can you talk a little bit about the -- it sounds like your visibility on the second half shipment has improved, it seems like primarily from the foundry order visibility. What are you seeing in terms of 14 nanometer logic capacity requirements? Is that -- how is that factoring into your thought process for this more confidence on the second half? Thanks.

好的，您能否稍微談談——聽起來您對下半年出貨量的了解有所提高，這似乎主要來自代工訂單的了解。您對 14 奈米邏輯容量要求有何看法？這是──這對你的思考過程有何影響，讓你對下半場更有信心？謝謝。

We're not very aggressive on that. We think that this 40-nanometer node is now going to stabilize what we shipped already. So we are not foreseeing an upside. We are foreseeing all the positive news that you heard from us in the last 45 minutes is really 28 nanometer.

我們對此並不太積極。我們認為這個 40 奈米節點現在將穩定我們已經出貨的產品。因此，我們預計不會出現上漲。我們預見到您在過去 45 分鐘內從我們這裡聽到的所有積極消息實際上都是 28 奈米的。

So if you are a bull, you will now tell me that I should also be positive that the 40 nanometer could see a trend of increase, because the numbers of capacity in store not that high. But --

所以如果你是多頭，你現在會告訴我，我也應該樂觀地認為 40 奈米會出現成長趨勢，因為儲存的容量數量不是那麼高。但 -

He is talking about 14.

他談論的是 14。

Oh, 14, I thought you said 40.

哦，14，我以為你說的是 40。

Satyam are you talking about 14 or 40?

Satyam，您說的是 14 還是 40？

14, 1-4, sorry.

14，1-4，抱歉。

Sorry, so--

抱歉，所以——

I also understood 40.

我也懂了40。

I understood 40. Because -- no, so 14 nanometer is just R&D at this moment. There is no impact on production.

我理解了40。因為——不，所以 14 奈米目前還只是研發階段。對生產沒有影響。

Okay, if you talk about a specific customer who calls its next node a 14 nanometer, I cannot comment, of course. This is proprietary data.

好的，如果您談論某個特定客戶，稱其下一個節點為 14 奈米，我當然無法發表評論。這是專有數據。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Mahesh Sanganeria.

馬赫什·桑加內裡亞。

Yes, thank you; RBC Capital Markets.

是的，謝謝；加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Eric, I have a question on your competitiveness on immersion. You gave us good information on the double patterning layers. My question is that are you able to meet the requirements of overlay for double and triple patterning? Or there is more improvement needed in that, that will enable you to keep your competitive advantage in immersion?

艾瑞克，我有一個關於你們沉浸式競爭力的問題。您向我們提供了有關雙層圖案化層的有用資訊。我的問題是，您能滿足雙重和三重圖案覆蓋的要求嗎？或者說在這方面還需要做更多的改進，才能讓您在沉浸式體驗中保持競爭優勢？

We -- first of all, I think it is very, very, very, very difficult at this moment to achieve what the customer wants. You may have heard me in the speech talking about design window enhancement and process drift management. So you are now in a point where the customers have to work extremely closely with a litho supplier to define the machine and the software that goes with it in their own design, so that your windows as wide as possible. So -- but the design now is kind of dedicated to the machine.

我們——首先，我認為目前要實現客戶想要的東西非常非常非常困難。您可能在演講中聽到我談論設計視窗增強和流程漂移管理。因此，現在客戶必須與光刻供應商密切合作，在自己的設計中定義機器及其配套的軟體，以便您的視窗盡可能寬。所以——但是現在的設計有點專門用於機器。

And then when that happens, you put this into production. And you are going to drift, not only the litho, but also my peers in fab, the hatch and et cetera. And then you correct every drift in production through a new set of parameters that you input into the litho machine. That is again another set of products that we are shipping.

當這種情況發生時，您就可以將其投入生產。你會漂移，不僅是光刻，還有我在晶圓廠、孵化器等等的同行。然後，您可以透過輸入到光刻機的一組新參數來修正生產中的每個漂移。這又是我們正在運送的另一組產品。

And we are not satisfying the customers. That is what I'm trying to tell all of you now that the double double-patterning makes the windows enhancement and the drift a huge concern and a huge challenge. So yes, we can do it, but it's not as pleasant as EUV. So the customers will always try to get EUV if EUV works. That is the first statement.

而我們並沒有讓客戶滿意。這就是我現在試圖告訴大家的，雙重雙重圖案化使得視窗增強和漂移成為一個巨大的擔憂和巨大的挑戰。是的，我們可以做到，但它不像 EUV 那樣令人愉快。因此，如果 EUV 有效，客戶總是會嘗試取得 EUV。這是第一句聲明。

The second statement is, however, is our competitor capable of doing this better than us? We've got a feeling that it's not the case, for the usual reason. One is, we invest a huge amount of money in the packages which are dedicated to windows enhancements and drift management, which are dedicated to the machines.

然而，第二個問題是，我們的競爭對手是否有能力做得更好？出於通常的原因，我們感覺事實並非如此。一是，我們在專用於機器的 Windows 增強和漂移管理的軟體包上投入了大量資金。

The machines themselves have 3000 points of controls, which we are well ahead of anybody in the market doing this. So if you fear something, you are better off with a machine with the maximum numbers of flexible items.

機器本身有 3000 個控制點，在這方面我們遠遠領先市場上的任何人。因此，如果您擔心某事，最好使用具有最大數量靈活物品的機器。

The second bit is that we still have a concept, which is the TWINSCAN, with numbers of measurement points capability which is superior to the paper specification of competitive products. So we think even on paper we will remain the leader, conceptually, under critical layers.

第二點是我們還有一個概念，那就是TWINSCAN，其測量點數量的能力優於競爭產品的紙面規格。因此我們認為，即使在紙面上，從概念上講，在關鍵層面上，我們仍將保持領先地位。

And I hinted to you the third point, is that the level of risk that is now existing in the fabs do not justify de-focused on R&D. The R&D to get a machine to work is a year or year-and-a-half activity. And duplicating it with multi-supplier, with multiple architecture is a non-economic, risky situation, in particular that in production. Then the machines are not matching, which is you cannot process anymore a wafer on different machines. That would be pretty bad.

我向你暗示了第三點，那就是晶圓廠目前存在的風險水準不足以成為減少研發重點的理由。讓一台機器運轉的研發需要一年或一年半的時間。而使用多供應商、多架構進行複製是一種不經濟、有風險的情況，尤其是在生產中。那麼機器就不匹配了，也就是說你不能在不同的機器上再處理晶圓。那將會非常糟糕。

So we think that during the period of time where EUV is not yet fully available and immersion is there, we have a high chance to remain leading.

因此我們認為，在 EUV 尚未完全普及且沉浸式技術已經存在的時期，我們很有可能會保持領先地位。

Thank you, Eric. That is very helpful.

謝謝你，埃里克。這非常有幫助。

And just a quick follow-up on your commentary on the NAND. Is the NAND weakness or lack of orders which you were expecting, is that coming from a specific region? Or can you provide some more color as to what is driving that? We heard from SanDisk that they pushed out the Wi-Fi. Have you seen similar action from others?

只是想快速跟進一下您對 NAND 的評論。NAND 的疲軟或訂單不足是否如您所料，是來自特定地區嗎？或者您能否提供更多細節來解釋背後的原因？我們從 SanDisk 獲悉，他們推出了 Wi-Fi。您是否看過其他人採取類似的行動？

Yes, we have -- in fact, I wanted to stop the call here and start asking you questions to figure out what the problem is. (Laughter) But we are only guessing that these four players or 3.5 players are now more in the business of, call it, embedded NAND.

是的，我們有——事實上，我想在這裡停止通話並開始向您提問以找出問題所在。（笑聲）但我們只是猜測，這 4 家或 3.5 家公司現在更多地從事嵌入式 NAND 業務。

And embedded NANDs are like logic. They are not anymore what you want to do, you manufacture. You just manufacture to the numbers of end products you have been designed in.

嵌入式 NAND 就像邏輯一樣。它們不再是你想做的事情，而是你製造出來的事情。您只需按照設計的數量生產最終產品即可。

And usually in this business for logic, you have always seen this at the beginning, things take a bit longer than expected before you get designed in and the product really works and et cetera, et cetera. So I would consider at this moment that all the exciting new products on which the new NANDs are being designed in haven't yet pumped in the volume. And you had all of these people just waiting for the products to come.

通常在這個邏輯業務中，你總是在一開始就看到這種情況，事情需要比預期更長的時間才能完成設計，產品才能真正發揮作用等等。因此，我認為目前所有採用新型 NAND 設計的令人興奮的新產品的產量都還未達到預期。所有這些人都在等待產品的到來。

So -- waiting for the new PCs, the ultralights, waiting for the SSDs, new generation with a better driver. I think, if I'm not mistaken, Windows 8 is going to drive those things much more aggressively, so that also you've got to wait to make it valuable. So I guess that's what it is, because I see this non-aggressiveness to be a bit consistent on all the players of the NAND business.

所以——等待新的 PC、超輕型電腦、等待 SSD、具有更好驅動程式的新一代。我認為，如果我沒有記錯的話，Windows 8 將會更積極地推動這些事情，所以你也必須等待才能讓它變得有價值。所以我想情況就是這樣，因為我認為這種不積極的態度對於 NAND 業務的所有參與者來說都是一致的。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Krish Sankar.

克里什·桑卡爾。

Thanks for taking my question. It is Krish Sankar, BofA Merrill Lynch.

感謝您回答我的問題。他是美銀美林的 Krish Sankar。

I had a couple of questions. Eric, you mentioned that you are having negotiations with customers for future EUV orders. What type of customers are these? Are these the early adopter DRAM or are they pretty much across the board?

我有幾個問題。Eric，您提到您正在與客戶就未來的 EUV 訂單進行談判。這些是什麼類型的客戶？這些是早期採用的 DRAM 嗎？還是它們幾乎是全面的？

As a fact, as I said to Nick, as you probably will see numbers of DRAMs and a number of logic people. And I confirmed NAND not. And as we only said, NAND will not be interested immediately, because 60 wafer power, 60, 70, which we will -- we are considering as a walk-away type thing, is probably not satisfactory enough for the NAND guys who will want to be a bit above that.

事實上，正如我對尼克所說的那樣，您可能會看到許多 DRAM 和許多邏輯人員。並且我確認 NAND 不是。正如我們剛才所說，NAND 不會立即引起人們的興趣，因為 60、60、70 晶圓的功率（我們正在考慮將其視為一種放棄類型的東西）可能不足以讓想要稍微高於這個水平的 NAND 廠商感到滿意。

So we will be a year or two later in the NAND business, which corresponds to the Goldilocks strategy, because if we had the three segments together on the first year, we probably will be having some difficulties to ramp all of that.

因此，我們將在 NAND 業務上晚一兩年，這對應於金髮姑娘策略，因為如果我們在第一年就將這三個部門合併在一起，我們可能會遇到一些困難來提高所有這些部門的業績。

All right. And then just two short questions. You said you had 11 orders for the 3300 right now. Does that include Elpida?

好的。然後只有兩個簡短的問題。您說您現在有 11 個 3300 的訂單。這包括爾必達嗎？

And then the second one is, in terms of your Q1 bookings, about [74%] orders from foundry. What percentage of that was for 20-nanometer, if you could help us? Thank you.

第二個是，就您第一季的訂單而言，大約 [74%] 的訂單來自代工廠。如果您能幫助我們的話，其中 20 奈米佔多大比例？謝謝。

So sorry, so the first question, I think we can't really talk about a situation of bankruptcy and things. As you know, at this moment, Elpida is in the process of being purchased. And there are issues about assessment of the assets, which I am advised not to comment. So I can't really tell you anything of that nature.

很抱歉，第一個問題，我認為我們不能真正談論破產的情況。如您所知，目前，Elpida 正處於被收購的過程中。另外還存在一些有關資產評估的問題，建議我不要對此發表評論。所以我真的不能告訴你任何關於這方面的事情。

Your second question I could not catch, sorry.

您的第二個問題我沒聽清楚，抱歉。

In terms of the foundry orders that you saw, strong foundry orders in Q1, I understand a lot of it was for 28 nanometer. Do you know how much or what percentage was for 20 nanometer?

就您看到的代工訂單而言，第一季的代工訂單強勁，我了解到其中許多是 28 納米的。您知道 20 奈米是多少或百分之多少嗎？

No, nothing. Nothing at this moment; one or two for R&D, that is it.

不，沒什麼。目前沒有任何事；研發部門只需要一到兩個。

Thanks, Eric.

謝謝，埃里克。

Gunnar Plagge.

貢納爾·普拉格。

Yes, it is Citi. I just wanted to come back to the foundry or the predictability of foundry demand. So on the one hand you have to handle the 28-nanometer designs coming in, but also the year development as it looks. That foundry seemed to be pretty relaxed because you could, in this scenario, also see a lot of longer backlog of orders coming in. You have 91% of the backlog shippable in the next month. So could you a little bit talk about tightness and about predictability here?

是的，是花旗。我只是想回到代工或代工需求的可預測性問題。因此，一方面你必須處理即將到來的 28 奈米設計，另一方面也要處理今年的發展。鑄造廠似乎相當放鬆，因為在這種情況下，你還會看到大量積壓已久的訂單湧入。您有 91% 的積壓訂單可在下個月出貨。那麼，您能否在這裡稍微談談緊密性和可預測性？

Again, we tried different ways to avoid the two interpretations on bookings, but we are genuine in saying that now that we have six to eight customers, all of them expect us to do the business, even if we don't have the orders. All of these discussions and our body language at this moment is based on the fact that we are having overwhelming numbers of requests to build up the upside, whatever.

再次，我們嘗試了不同的方法來避免對預訂的兩種解釋，但我們真誠地說，現在我們有六到八個客戶，他們都希望我們做生意，即使我們沒有訂單。此刻，所有這些討論和我們的肢體語言都是基於這樣一個事實：我們收到了大量要求我們增強優勢的請求，無論如何。

These are not orders, but I can tell you I consider these all in orders. So they are more secured than an order which, in case of recession, would be in any way pushed out.

這些不是命令，但我可以告訴你，我認為這些都是命令。因此，它們比在經濟衰退的情況下以任何方式被推遲的命令更有保障。

So the predictability of these things not because you have a PO. The predictability is because you know why they are useful.

因此，這些事情的可預測性並不是因為你有 PO。可預測性是因為你知道它們為什麼有用。

And if I were to tell you they are used for -- because the next President of France is going to be Mr. X, I would be worried about that, because of -- these things are -- may not happen. But when you say that you have a necessity to ramp the node 28 and then the node 20 to critical mass, which is you reach still a critical mass which would represent about 250 wafer per month (multiple speakers) -- this is the whole industry [per thousand] wafers per month.

如果我告訴你它們的用途——因為下一任法國總統將是 X 先生，我會擔心這一點，因為——這些事情——可能不會發生。但是當您說有必要將節點 28 和節點 20 提升到臨界質量時，您仍然會達到臨界質量，這將代表每月約 250 個晶圓（多個發言者） - 這是整個行業每月[每千個]晶圓的數量。

I would think that is going to happen, because it has always happened. It's the minimum numbers of wafers that the industry would bear or consider critical. So this is why you see us today not really concerned about bookings, and really working our energy to get to the additional upside and logic that have been asked from us.

我認為這會發生，因為它一直都在發生。這是業界能夠承受或認為至關重要的最低晶圓數量。所以這就是為什麼你今天看到我們並不真正關心預訂量，而是真正投入精力去獲得我們所要求的額外優勢和邏輯。

Okay, great. And just coming back to EUV, we've talked about this a couple of times, but could you give us your view on EUV gross margins next year? What would be reasonable to put into a model?

好的，太好了。回到 EUV 的話題，我們已經討論過這個問題幾次了，您能否告訴我們您對明年 EUV 毛利率的看法？把什麼放入模型中才是合理的？

I could give you my view, but I prefer Peter's view.

我可以給你我的觀點，但我更喜歡彼得的觀點。

I think it is a repeat of what we said before. Our target is to have the first production tools shipped at, let's say, the high twenties. And we need about two years. So let's say 2015 area to get to the corporate average that you see today.

我認為這是我們之前說過的話的重複。我們的目標是讓第一批生產工具以 20 多美元的價格出貨。我們大約需要兩年。因此，假設 2015 年的地區達到了您今天看到的企業平均值。

So next year, high twenties.

所以明年，二十多歲。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Gardiner.

安德魯加德納。

Thank you, it is Barclays. Just as a continuation of the last question really related to the customer concentration and order lumpiness, can you also comment on your lead-times? I take it that these haven't really changed, and it's just a question of the difference in the time from initial indication from your customers with which you can start to plan the tool manufacturer to the actual putting of pen to paper for the official order that has changed.

謝謝，是巴克萊銀行。正如上一個問題確實與客戶集中度和訂單集中度相關一樣，您能否評論一下您的交貨時間？我認為這些實際上並沒有改變，只是從客戶最初指示您開始規劃工具製造商到實際簽署正式訂單的時間差異問題。

Yes. I think the -- we have of course used -- you may remember, because a lot of you -- the people currently on the call were on the call last year also, that we talked about lead-times of our NXT program about 10 months, 10 to 11 months. That has actually come down significantly in the sense that we are now six to seven. So that is a lot better.

是的。我認為——我們當然使用過——你可能還記得，因為你們中的許多人——目前參加電話會議的人去年也參加過電話會議，我們談到了我們的 NXT 計劃的準備時間大約為 10 個月、10 到 11 個月。事實上，這數字已經大幅下降，目前是六比七。這樣就好多了。

I expect anything that we currently see not to have issues with lead-times, with delivery in our schedules now. We'd also tell our customers to please give us the challenge to be under pressure; they want to have more tools, then fine, we'll start pushing the ciphers down in the factory again. But six to seven months, that's the general lead-time.

我希望我們目前看到的任何東西都不會出現交貨時間問題，並且現在都能按照我們的計劃進行交付。我們也會告訴我們的客戶，請給我們承受壓力的挑戰；他們想要更多的工具，那麼好吧，我們將再次開始在工廠中推行密碼。但六到七個月是一般的準備時間。

But like you said, and Eric also said, we have these discussions with customers about their shipment pattern. And then we have that agreement with them which, because of their ramp needs, is almost cast in stone, and especially when it is 28-nanometer logic, which is extremely high in demand today. So that is what we can plan relatively easily.

但就像您和 Eric 所說的那樣，我們與客戶討論了他們的運送模式。然後，我們與他們達成了協議，由於他們的爬坡需求，該協議幾乎是一成不變的，尤其是當它是 28 奈米邏輯時，這在當今的需求量極高。這就是我們可以相對輕鬆地規劃的事情。

And when the orders come, it's just very lumpy. Like you say, only a few customers where you can have per quarter -- depending on when you get the batch of those orders -- you don't get them one by one. You get a batch. It could be hundreds of millions difference between one and the other quarter, meaning nothing.

當訂單到來時，情況就變得非常混亂。就像你說的，每個季度你只能接到幾個客戶——這取決於你何時收到這些訂單——你無法一個一個地接到。你得到一批。一個季度與另一個季度之間可能存在數億美元的差異，但這毫無意義。

So all in all, about the order level, there is one thing I would say. We expect very healthy order levels basically supporting our sales guidance for this year.

總而言之，關於訂單級別，我想說一件事。我們預計訂單水準將非常健康，基本上可以支撐我們今年的銷售預期。

Okay, that's clear. Just a quick follow up on some of the comments you made on EUV. There's clearly work to be done here, but you are sounding slightly better, I think, that you did the last time we heard from you.

好的，很清楚。我只是想快速跟進一下您對 EUV 的一些評論。這裡顯然還有工作要做，但我認為，你現在的表現比我們上次聽到你的消息時稍微好一點。

Can you give us any information on how you're communicating this progress to your customers, and what they are telling you that they need in terms of what they need to see to make a determination as to which node and to what extent they begin to build EUV into their roadmaps?

您能否向我們提供一些信息，說明您如何向客戶傳達這一進展，以及他們告訴您他們需要什麼，他們需要看到什麼來確定哪個節點以及在多大程度上開始將 EUV 納入他們的路線圖？

Yes, so we have indeed progressed as we expected to progress. So you can consider this a victory, because most of the time we've told you that it is not as good as we thought. So today, I think we could say that we have an inflection point that puts us into a situation of a higher level of confidence.

是的，所以我們確實取得了我們預期的進展。所以你可以認為這是一場勝利，因為大多數時候我們都告訴過你，它並不像我們想像的那麼好。所以今天，我認為我們可以說我們已經有一個轉捩點，使我們進入了更高層次的信心狀態。

This level of confidence is, however, only based on the fact, as I said three months ago, that we are doing experiments -- more than experiments. But we're checking the numbers of upgrades separately. So, each of your grid at this moment are running pretty nicely -- all of them.

然而，這種信心程度只是基於這樣一個事實，正如我三個月前所說的那樣，我們正在進行實驗——不僅僅是實驗。但我們正在單獨檢查升級的數量。因此，此刻您的每個電網都運行得很好——全部都運行得很好。

So therefore, we have increased our level of confidence. But this is not sufficient and good enough, because the customers haven't seen all of these upgrades in, as I said in the speech, in situ. In situ means you try all this into the same machine, and as expected into our business, you discover a bit of issues.

因此，我們增強了信心。但這還不夠好，因為正如我在演講中所說，客戶還沒有親眼看到所有這些升級。現場意味著您將所有這些都嘗試放入同一台機器中，正如我們預期的那樣，您會發現一些問題。

So, on one hand, the message that we give you today is a message of we now confirm our concept and we are absolutely at 60 wafers or more per hour. There's no question. The bad news is, in situ we may discover a number of cleanup activities, optimization that may have an impact of months to the situation.

因此，一方面，我們今天向你們傳達的訊息是，我們現在確認了我們的概念，我們每小時的晶圓產量絕對達到 60 片或更多。毫無疑問。壞消息是，我們可能會在現場發現一些清理活動和最佳化，這些活動可能會對情況產生數月的影響。

So the customers are not thrilled with this, because their decision has to be frozen, as we said a few months ago, in the summer. So the summer looks like a time by which, one, we have to bring certainty; and two, they have no choice and go full steam on one or the other. So this is why the summer is an important date.

因此，客戶對此並不感到興奮，因為他們的決定必須被凍結，正如我們幾個月前夏天所說的那樣。因此，夏季看起來是我們必須實現確定性的時期；第二，他們別無選擇，只能全力以赴。這就是為什麼夏天是一個重要的日子。

Now, some of you will say, is the summer July 15 when we have our call? Or is the summer October 15 when we have our call? You do understand that in my view, the summer is going to be mid-June (laughter) because indeed, it is okay for both of us, the customers and us, to struggle our way with the proof until the proof is solid enough that they will release. So at this moment, the probability of release is high enough that they negotiate the orders, by the way.

現在，有些人會說，我們打電話的時間是夏天的 7 月 15 日嗎？還是我們打電話的時間是夏季的 10 月 15 日？您確實明白，在我看來，夏天將會是六月中旬（笑聲），因為事實上，對於我們雙方，包括客戶和我們自己，我們都可以努力尋找證據，直到證據足夠充分，他們才會發布。因此，目前，釋放的可能性足夠高，順便說一下，他們可以協商訂單。

It sounds good. Thank you. Well, we'll look forward to the summer then.

聽起來不錯。謝謝。好吧，那我們就期待夏天的到來。

Me, too. (Laughter)

我也是。（笑聲）

For several reasons.

原因有幾個。

Peter Testa.

彼得泰斯塔。

Yes, it is Peter Testa from One Investments. Thank you for taking the question.

是的，他是 One Investments 的 Peter Testa。感謝您回答這個問題。

I just wanted to understand a bit on how -- what you are describing between the order versus sales forecast, how that impacts how you manage your business. Thinking about, for example, working capital that might be up and down a bit differently, holding your costs, commitments to suppliers, these sorts of things, given you will be working without, say, deposits and hard purchase orders for the same length as before.

我只是想稍微了解一下——您所描述的訂單與銷售預測之間的關係，以及這對您管理業務的方式有何影響。例如，考慮營運資本可能會有稍微不同的上下波動，持有成本，對供應商的承諾，諸如此類的事情，因為你將在沒有存款和硬性採購訂單的情況下工作，時間與以前相同。

Yes. Well, it is actually -- we are planning our business based on the shipment commitments that we agree with the customers. And as I've told you earlier, then the orders will follow later on.

是的。嗯，事實上——我們是根據與客戶達成的裝運承諾來規劃我們的業務。正如我之前告訴你的，命令稍後會執行。

Whether that will -- whether that means that we have a different risk profile with respect to our investment in working capital, that is practically not the case. We used to have orders in 2008, at the end of 2008 when we went into the financial crisis, those orders were just pushed out. You know, those were -- they were never canceled.

這是否意味著我們在營運資本投資方面具有不同的風險狀況，但實際上並非如此。我們曾經在2008年有訂單，但2008年底我們陷入了金融危機，那些訂單就被推遲了。你知道，這些——它們從未被取消過。

They are always pushed out to a point where they need them later, because it's all about that -- well, it's all about technology that doesn't go stale. It will -- NXT.1950s will still be sold in 2013, 2014 and beyond. So they never canceled. They just push back. We only have a few customers, so we accept the push back, which means that working capital is exactly the same as when we would not have the order.

他們總是被推到以後需要他們的地步，因為這一切都與此有關——嗯，這一切都與不會過時的技術有關。NXT.1950 仍將在 2013 年、2014 年及以後銷售。所以他們從未取消過。他們只是反擊。我們只有少數客戶，所以我們接受推遲，這意味著營運資金與沒有訂單時完全相同。

So in that sense, from a working capital point of view, it doesn't change anything. That's why the order relevance is not that high, either. It's just a matter of do we accept the commitments of our customers to take a shipment which will support their product roadmap which is clear to us?

因此從這個意義上來說，從營運資金的角度來看，它並沒有改變任何事情。這就是為什麼訂單相關性也不是那麼高的原因。問題只是我們是否接受客戶的承諾，接收一批支持其產品路線圖的貨物，這對我們來說很清楚嗎？

And if we say yes, we have the commitment in the chain and have to add to that our commitment in the supply chain builds up over time. So it means that the closer we are to the shipment date, the higher our commitment is to our suppliers. So it is an effective, fairly flexible, flexible system that we are using.

如果我們的答案是肯定的，那麼我們就會對整個供應鏈做出承諾，隨著時間的推移，我們對供應鏈的承諾也會不斷增強。所以這意味著我們越接近出貨日期，我們對供應商的承諾就越高。因此，我們所使用的系統是有效、相當靈活的。

Okay. And the follow-up question, please, is if you look at the reasons why foundry and IDM are lasting longer, can you give us a sense as to how you see these persisting? I.e., for example, do you think this will hand over to the pickup in memory or overlap the pickup in memory?

好的。請問，後續問題是，如果您研究代工和 IDM 持續時間更長的原因，您能否告訴我們您如何看待它們持續存在？即，例如，您認為這會移交給記憶體中的拾音器還是與記憶體中的拾音器重疊？

Well, we wish that there is no overlap for nicely spreading good revenue between 2012 and 2013. And there is a high chance that it is going to happen. On the one hand, DRAM business is only going to pick up after recent decisions are taken with Elpida. And only by the end of the year driven by the, multiplied by two, DRAM content in the smartphones. And the tablets has only come at the end of the year, so we should be having the time to get there.

好吧，我們希望 2012 年和 2013 年之間沒有重疊，以便合理分配收入。而且這種情況發生的可能性很高。一方面，在最近與Elpida做出決定後，DRAM業務才會回升。而光是今年底，智慧型手機中的 DRAM 含量就將增加兩倍。而且平板電腦將在年底上市，所以我們應該有時間去實現這一目標。

Okay, in NAND, I said I was not sure about the drivers. But I could guess that drivers are the volume-driven type drivers, which also are a type of Christmas season, new product type thing, which nicely puts us into a situation of getting the orders of these guys probably in the end of Q3, beginning of Q4 for the delivery late in Q4 and deliveries into Q1. So we've got a high chance here to have a nice flow of those two segments.

好的，在 NAND 中，我說過我不確定驅動程式。但我猜想這些驅動因素是銷量驅動型的，也可能是聖誕季、新產品之類的因素，這讓我們能夠很好地在第三季度末、第四季度初獲得這些客戶的訂單，以便在第四季度末和第一季度交付。因此，我們很有可能讓這兩個部分順利銜接。

And as some of you have already written in your notes, if you add it to these 11 EUV tools that we will in now recognize in 2013, we are going to have a good chance to have now a managed revenue flow which is stable to growing nicely, although it is too early, of course, to guide on 2013.

正如你們中的一些人已經在筆記中寫到的那樣，如果將它添加到我們現在將在 2013 年認識到的這 11 種 EUV 工具中，我們將有很好的機會獲得穩定增長的可管理收入流，儘管現在對 2013 年做出指導還為時過早。

Right. But you think the foundry and IDM persists to that point, or persists beyond that point of when the memory picks up?

正確的。但是您認為代工廠和 IDM 會堅持到那個時候，或者在內存恢復之後還會堅持下去嗎？

There is a scenario where they persists, yes. There is a scenario where they persist. And at this moment we have huge discussions with all of them about how persistent and real that is.

是的，有一種情況是它們會持續存在。有一種情況是它們會持續存在。目前，我們正與他們所有人就這一觀點的持久性和真實性進行深入討論。

There was a question before, which was how do we know what is real or not. And this is why we are paid, to find out if it is real, because we need to prepare all this. We need to prepare the supply chain. We need to prepare the level of risk, working capital, and things.

之前有一個問題，就是我們如何知道什麼是真實的，什麼是不真實的。這就是我們得到報酬的原因，為了找出它是否真實，因為我們需要做好這一切的準備。我們需要準備好供應鏈。我們需要做好風險等級、營運資金等準備。

But it's much too early to guide. Again, if this is true, this will happen. But I have to give you transparency. This is not a dead business out there. There is clearly activities in the logic business beyond 2012.

但現在下結論還為時過早。再說一次，如果這是真的，那麼就會發生。但我必須向你保證透明度。這不是一個已經倒閉的行業。2012 年以後邏輯業務顯然還會有活動。

Thank you very much for your answers.

非常感謝您的回答。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德什潘德。

Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan. Thanks for letting me on.

摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。謝謝你讓我加入。

Eric, can I try to go back to that NAND question? You said that you could not exactly answer the behavior of your NAND customers, but in terms of what you've historically been telling us is that your customers tell you shipment horizons. Have you had any discussions with your NAND customers about future shipments, given that some of these lenses need to be built if you were to be able to, for instance, ship tools to them in Q1, Q2 of next year? Clearly that's not an order, but it means that you have some understanding of their shipments.

埃里克，我可以嘗試回到那個 NAND 問題嗎？您說您無法準確回答您的 NAND 客戶的行為，但就您過去告訴我們的情況而言，您的客戶會告訴您出貨期限。您是否與 NAND 客戶討論過未來的出貨情況，因為如果您要在明年第一季或第二季向他們運送工具，就需要製造其中一些鏡頭？顯然這不是命令，但這意味著您對他們的貨物有所了解。

So, let's be conservative at this moment; I would say not a good picture in 2012. This is why the question before you was relevant. There is a high chance of the NAND guys are starting to talk to us about how big their business could be in 2013, indeed. That is happening, but not yet to put in until Q4.

所以，我們現在要保守一點；我想說 2012 年的情況不太好。這就是為什麼您面前的問題具有相關性。NAND 公司很有可能開始向我們談論他們的業務在 2013 年會有多大。這正在發生，但直到第四季才會投入使用。

Sandeep, all on top of that, if you talk about Q1 and Q2 2013, and you talk about the long lead-time items in the supply chain, we have ample, ample time to react. So we don't need to have that visibility today.

Sandeep，最重要的是，如果你談論 2013 年第一季和第二季度，並且談論供應鏈中交貨期較長的項目，我們有充足的時間來做出反應。所以我們今天不需要有這樣的可見性。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

And secondly, a question again on EUV. You're talking about that you are starting to book customers for the production version of EUV. In terms of that, you made some comments today about the next generation node and where this will be inserted for logic, DRAM, et cetera.

其次，再次詢問有關 EUV 的問題。您說的是，您開始為 EUV 的生產版本預訂客戶。就此而言，您今天對下一代節點以及它將如何插入邏輯、DRAM 等發表了一些評論。

So what kind of capacity should we be looking at for EUV in the first full year of ramp? You are going to 11 tools next year, is what you've talked about in terms of orders. If we look into 2014, for instance, can you do 20 tools? Or can you do only 15?

那麼，在產能提升的第一年，我們該關注 EUV 的什麼容量呢？您在訂單方面談到了明年將生產 11 種工具。例如，如果我們回顧 2014 年，您能做出 20 種工具嗎？或者你只能做 15 個嗎？

Well, I would -- again, we don't guide, but I know some of you have a spreadsheet right in front of you, so we need to be giving you the proper direction. I would say at this moment, if we get two customers, one DRAM, one logic to start, and we get some R&D activities, you should do 15.

好吧，我會——再說一次，我們不提供指導，但我知道你們中的一些人面前就有一張電子表格，所以我們需要給你們正確的指導。我想說的是，目前，如果我們有兩個客戶，一個 DRAM，一個邏輯啟動，並且我們進行一些研發活動，那麼你應該做 15 個。

Let's not be over-enthusiastic about the complexity. You know, in this transition customers will always ask you for a lot of things in a transition. And when the transition comes, they find ways to use most effectively the installed base. So you have to always be usually conservative as to a new technology. They want a lot, and then they will reduce it by a factor because they can use your installed base.

我們不要對複雜性過度興奮。你知道，在這個過渡期，客戶總是會向你提出很多要求。當轉型到來時，他們會找到最有效地利用現有客戶群的方法。因此，對於新技術，你必須始終保持保守的態度。他們想要很多，然後他們會減少一點，因為他們可以使用你的安裝基礎。

Now if, in 2014, we have a volume-driven business, meaning that it's good business, like the economy is doing good, then EUV will be even higher, because EUV would be a greenfield. And then you already have much more than that. But at this moment, because none of us can call 2014, you would want to just put yourself into two customer plus two or three R&D and make it 15.

現在，如果在 2014 年，我們有一個由數量驅動的業務，這意味著這是一項好業務，就像經濟狀況良好一樣，那麼 EUV 將會更高，因為 EUV 將是一片綠地。那麼你已經擁有的遠不止這些了。但目前，由於我們都無法預測 2014 年的走向，所以你最好只投入兩個客戶加上兩三個研發，這樣總數就達到 15 個了。

Okay, so you're talking about what you can think about you can ship rather than your capacity, correct?

好的，那麼您談論的是您能運送的貨物而不是您的運力，對嗎？

We could ship more, but (multiple speakers)

我們可以運送更多，但是（多位發言者）

Yes, okay, I understand. (multiple speakers) Thank you, Eric, thanks.

是的，好的，我明白。（多位發言者）謝謝你，艾瑞克，謝謝。

Operator, I think we'll try for one more question. For those of you that didn't get to ask a question and still have a burning one, feel free to call investor relations. We'd be glad to get back to you either late today or tomorrow. So, Operator, if we can have the last question, please?

接線員，我想我們可以再嘗試回答一個問題。對於那些還沒有提出問題但仍有疑問的人，請隨時致電投資者關係部門。我們很樂意在今天晚些時候或明天回覆您。那麼，接線員，我們可以問最後一個問題嗎？

Mehdi Hosseini.

梅赫迪·胡賽尼。

Yes, thanks for taking my burning question. Eric, going back to this booking issue, would it be fair to say that since that since these eleven 3300 tools have not gone into the backlog, that is the biggest variance looking into the next three to six months, and that is impacting your ability to project bookings? Is that a fair assessment?

是的，感謝您回答我迫切的問題。艾瑞克，回到這個預訂問題，是否可以這樣說，由於這 11 個 3300 工具尚未進入積壓狀態，所以這是未來三到六個月內最大的差異，並且會影響您預測預訂的能力？這是一個公平的評價嗎？

No, the fair assessment is there's upside to what we were saying there. We were not even discussing these EUV. They will pop-up in our backlog.

不，公平的評價是，我們所說的是有好處的。我們甚至沒有討論這些 EUV。它們會出現在我們的積壓工作中。

In fact, I don't know how we are going to organize the accounting for that, but no, whatever Peter said before, which is at this moment we're not worried too much about low booking. We're just worried about giving you a range, which is not satisfactory to you. So it is not a low level. And on top of whatever Peter said, EUV will be coming in.

事實上，我不知道我們將如何組織會計工作，但是，無論彼得之前說什麼，目前我們並不太擔心預訂量低的問題。我們只是擔心給您一個範圍，不能讓您滿意。所以這不是一個低水平。除了 Peter 所說的以外，EUV 也即將問世。

So let me give you my brainstorming view on that, is we need to -- either we book when we ship, which is one way, or we decide at some quarters to say we are going to book all EUV because it's now officially signed off spec-wise, or something. I don't know. But we will not use this as a political item to save a bookings quarter.

因此，讓我就此給出我的看法，我們需要——要么在發貨時預訂，這是一種方式，要么我們在某些​​季度決定說我們將預訂所有 EUV，因為現在已經正式簽署了規格，或者其他什麼的。我不知道。但我們不會將此作為挽救預訂季度的政治手段。

In fact, at this moment, our body language, as you may have felt it, tells you that we do -- may not need to do that anyway. And this is a good, nice last question in a sense, which you now have a sort of translation of our positive body language due to structural buys from our logic customers. So I think that is a good conclusion, if I may.

事實上，此刻，我們的肢體語言，正如你可能已經感覺到的，告訴你我們確實需要這樣做——無論如何，可能不需要這樣做。從某種意義上說，這是一個非常好的最後一個問題，由於我們的邏輯客戶的結構性購買，您現在可以對我們的積極肢體語言進行某種翻譯。所以如果可以的話，我認為這是一個很好的結論。

Got it. And one of your top foundry customers was making a statement yesterday that given the challenges in migrating to 14 nanometer, they may actually do 18 or do the development for 18 nanometer first until the lithography bottleneck is resolved. Do you have any comment on that?

知道了。你們的一家頂級代工客戶昨天發表聲明稱，鑑於向 14 奈米遷移所面臨的挑戰，他們實際上可能會先進行 18 奈米工藝，或者先進行 18 奈米工藝的開發，直到光刻瓶頸得到解決。你對此有何評論？

Yes, so we are always advising our customers to have a backup, which is multiple patterning backup. And yes indeed, you have noticed that some of the customers are now making public that getting to 14 with multiple is difficult. And therefore, they have to try to do something in between.

是的，所以我們總是建議客戶進行備份，即多重模式備份。是的，您確實注意到了，一些顧客現在公開表示，要達到 14 個且具有多個身分非常困難。因此，他們必須嘗試採取一些措施。

And the problem with foundry is that something in between has to be economically favorable to their own customer. And this negotiation and discussion is happening at this moment. So we are preparing machine for these scenarios, obviously. But this is not for 2013. This is for beyond.

而代工的問題在於，介於兩者之間的某些東西必須在經濟上對自己的客戶有利。而這項談判和討論目前正在發生。因此，顯然我們正在為這些場景準備機器。但這不適用於 2013 年。這是超越的。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Excellent. Well, now on behalf of ASML's Board of Management, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today in the call. And Operator, if you could formally conclude the call for us, we would appreciate it. Thank you.

出色的。好吧，現在我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。接線員，如果您能為我們正式結束通話，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2012 first-quarter results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a nice day.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2012 年第一季業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你今天過得愉快。