艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2011 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to that ASML 2011 third-quarter results conference call on October 12, 2011.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2011年10月12日ASML 2011年第三季業績電話會議。

Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions).

在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。ASML介紹完後，會有提問的機會。（操作員指令）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Go ahead please sir.

現在我想將會議交給先生。克雷格·德揚。先生，請繼續。

Thank you operator. Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and webcast. As the operator mentioned, the subject of today's call is ASML's third-quarter 2011 financial results. Joining us today from Silicon Valley in the Bay area of California is -- and cohosting the call is Mr. Eric Meurice, ASML's CEO, and here in our headquarters along with me in Veldhoven in the Netherlands is Peter Wennink, ASML's CFO.

謝謝接線生。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網路廣播。正如接線員所提到的，今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2011年第三季的財務表現。今天，來自加州灣區矽谷的與會者是──也是本次電話會議的共同主持人。ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice，和我一起在荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部的還有 ASML 財務長 Peter Wennink。

Given that we're in two different locations, should there be any kind of technical difficulties that would separate one of the parties, that separated party will join rejoin the call as soon as we possibly can get them back on.

鑑於我們位於兩個不同的地點，如果出現任何技術問題導致其中一方無法通話，那麼被隔離的一方將盡快重新加入通話。

So at this time, I'd like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement contained in our press release today and in our third-quarter results presentation, both of which you can find on our website at www.ASML.com. This Safe Harbor statement will apply to this call and all associated presentation materials.

因此，此時，我想提請您注意我們今天的新聞稿和第三季業績報告中的安全港聲明，您可以在我們的網站 www.ASML.com 上找到這兩項聲明。本安全港聲明將適用於本次電話會議及所有相關演示資料。

As a reminder, the length of the call will be 60 minutes.

提醒一下，通話時間為 60 分鐘。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Eric for a brief introduction.

現在我想把電話轉給 Eric 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you Craig. Good afternoon, good morning everybody. Thank you for attending our conference call. Now that I am in the Silicon Valley, I realize how much courage it is for all of us for you to wake up at six o'clock to listen to us.

謝謝你，克雷格。大家下午好，早安。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。現在我來到矽谷，我才意識到，對我們所有人來說，需要多大的勇氣才能讓你們六點起床來聽我們說話。

But before we begin the Q&A session, Peter and I will provide, as usual, an overview and some commentary on the third quarter and the view forward. As usual, Peter will start with a review of the financials in Q3 with added comment on the short-term outlook. I will complete the introduction with some specific commentary on current status and planning regarding immersion and EUV. So Peter please.

但在開始問答環節之前，彼得和我將像往常一樣對第三季和未來的看法進行概述和評論。像往常一樣，彼得將首先回顧第三季的財務狀況，並對短期前景發表評論。我將透過對浸入式和 EUV 的現狀和規劃的一些具體評論來完成介紹。那麼請彼得。

Thank you and welcome to everyone. As Eric mentioned, I would like to take a moment to share some observations on the events of last quarter, as well as some details of our third-quarter results.

謝謝大家，歡迎大家。正如 Eric 所提到的，我想花點時間分享一些對上個季度事件的觀察，以及我們第三季業績的一些細節。

Our third-quarter sales came in over EUR1.4 billion, and were evenly distributed across all sectors. Again, as in the second quarter, they included roughly equivalent unit shipments of noncritical KrF and i-Line systems, and critical level ArF immersion systems.

我們第三季的銷售額超過 14 億歐元，並且均勻分佈在各個部門。同樣，與第二季度一樣，它們包括大致等量的非關鍵 KrF 和 i-Line 系統以及關鍵級 ArF 浸沒系統的單位出貨量。

I would like to highlight that we have now shipped more than 100 TWINSCAN NXT 1950 immersion systems, bringing the total number of ASML immersion systems sold to over 320. The average selling price of all systems in the third quarter was EUR23.2 million. That's an increase of EUR2 million per unit versus the second quarter with an average selling price of new systems of EUR27 million, which is a EUR4.4 million increase over the second quarter.

我想強調的是，我們現在已經出貨了 100 多台 TWINSCAN NXT 1950 浸沒式系統，讓 ASML 浸沒式系統的銷量總數達到 320 多台。第三季所有系統的平均售價為2320萬歐元。與第二季相比，每台系統增加了 200 萬歐元，新系統的平均售價為 2,700 萬歐元，比第二季增加了 440 萬歐元。

Service and field option sales for the quarter came in at EUR185 million, which is not substantially different than the second quarter. We also recognized sales for the first time of two EUV systems for a total amount of EUR80 million.

本季服務和現場選項銷售額為 1.85 億歐元，與第二季沒有太大差異。我們也首次確認了兩套 EUV 系統的銷售額，總額達 8,000 萬歐元。

Our third-quarter net income was EUR355 million, which is 24% of sales, creating an earnings per share of EUR0.84 for the quarter. Excluding the zero margin UAV business, net income would have been 26% of sales.

我們第三季的淨收入為 3.55 億歐元，佔銷售額的 24%，本季每股收益為 0.84 歐元。不包括零利潤的無人機業務，淨收入將佔銷售額的26%。

Updating our previously announced share buyback program, as of September 25, 2011, ASML has repurchased roughly 21 million shares or EUR560 million, giving an average buyback price of around EUR27. As stated before, ASML intends to cancel the repurchased shares, and at the end of the third quarter, we had about EUR2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

根據我們先前宣布的股票回購計劃，截至 2011 年 9 月 25 日，ASML 已回購約 2,100 萬股，即 5.6 億歐元，平均回購價格約為 27 歐元。如前所述，ASML 打算取消回購的股份，截至第三季末，我們擁有約 28 億歐元的現金和現金等價物。

Third-quarter net bookings, excluding EUV, came in at 23 systems valued at EUR514 million, which is essentially one system above our guided level. Booked ASPs declined from EUR24.7 million in the second quarter to EUR22.4 million in the third quarter, which is due to a product mix shift toward some lower ASP non-critical tools, especially KrF.

第三季淨預訂量（不包括 EUV）達到 23 個系統，價值 5.14 億歐元，比我們的指導水準高出一個系統。預訂平均銷售價格從第二季的 2,470 萬歐元下降至第三季的 2,240 萬歐元，這是由於產品組合轉向一些平均銷售價格較低的非關鍵工具，尤其是 KrF。

Bookings strength was in the Foundry sector 41% of total bookings, followed by NAND Flash of 30%, with 18% from DRAM and the rest came from IDM.

訂單量最大的是代工領域，佔總訂單量的 41%，其次是 NAND Flash，佔 30%，DRAM 佔 18%，其餘來自 IDM。

Our order backlog existing Q3 was EUR2 billion, excluding EUV, which totaled 74 systems with an average selling price of nearly EUR27 million per unit. For the fourth quarter of 2011, we expect net sales to be about EUR1.1 billion, including revenue recognition for one EUV system, an NXE 3100, at EUR40 million. This system will be recognized again with zero profit margin, resulting in a gross margin of total expected sales for the quarter of about 41%. But excluding this EUV system, the gross margin would be about 42%.

我們第三季的訂單積壓額為 20 億歐元（不含 EUV），總計 74 套系統，平均每套售價近 2,700 萬歐元。2011 年第四季度，我們預計淨銷售額約為 11 億歐元，其中包括一套 EUV 系統 N​​XE 3100 的收入，即 4,000 萬歐元。該系統將以零利潤率再次確認，導致本季預期總銷售的毛利率約為41%。但不包括這套EUV系統，毛利率約42%。

R&D expenses are expected to come in -- to be EUR150 million, giving support to our dual product leader -- to our dual product leadership strategy with focus on the EUV system development and also on immersion platform announcements.

預計研發費用將達到 1.5 億歐元，為我們的雙產品領導策略提供支持，並專注於 EUV 系統開發和沈浸式平台公告。

SG&A will be at EUR56 million in the quarter.

本季銷售、一般及行政費用將達 5,600 萬歐元。

We expect fourth-quarter bookings to be at the level above the third quarter, reflecting customers' clear and continuing need for new technology capability in support of their aggressive shrink roadmaps for new product development at lower manufacturing costs. However, it's too early to understand how overall semiconductor demand will contribute to our business in 2012 and to what extent our business will benefit from what appears to be a solid technology transition year.

我們預計第四季度的訂單量將高於第三季的水平，這反映出客戶對新技術能力的明確和持續需求，以支持他們以較低的製造成本進行新產品開發的積極縮小路線圖。然而，現在判斷整體半導體需求將如何為我們2012年的業務做出貢獻，以及我們的業務將在多大程度上受益於看似穩健的技術轉型年，還為時過早。

At this point, our customers are starting to place orders for these next-generation technology upgrades, but are currently not yet capable of quoting their total capacity needs for 2012. They will most certainly wait for macroeconomic and industry specific market developments before confirming the full extent of their investment plans for next year.

目前，我們的客戶開始訂購這些下一代技術升級，但目前還無法報出 2012 年的總容量需求。他們肯定會等待宏觀經濟和特定產業的市場發展，然後再確認明年的全部投資計畫。

With that, I would like to turn it back over to Eric.

說完這些，我想把發言權交還給 Eric。

Thank you Peter. So Peter has addressed our short-term and midterm perspective. I would like myself to focus my introduction on the next four to five years, which we will see one of the industry's most extensive technology transitions, the transition from - for critical layers from immersion lithography and its multiple versions, spacer, double patterning, double double patterning, etc., to EU.

謝謝你，彼得。彼得已經談到了我們的短期和中期觀點。我想重點介紹未來四到五年，我們將看到業界最廣泛的技術轉型之一，即從浸沒式光刻及其多個版本、間隔物、雙重圖案化、雙重雙重圖案化等關鍵層向 EU 的轉型。

This next-generation technology has been chosen unanimously by the industry. It is based on EUV light, the wavelengths of which is not limited, or not limited to further geometrical shrinks up to 2020 or even longer.

這項下一代技術得到了業界的一致選擇。它基於EUV光，其波長不受限制，或者說不受限制地進一步幾何縮小至2020年甚至更長。

As you know, immersion lithography, which is currently the leading edge technology, will not be able to carry the industry's geometric scaling on critical layers beyond, say, 15 to 20 nanometer in the DRAM segment and beyond 10 to 15 nanometers in the NAND and Logic segment even by stretching immersion lithography with self-aligned or double double patterning or any of these techniques. These immersion technologies will have a hard stop for use in critical layers. But of course immersion will however be used for many non-critical layers well into the 2020s, along with KrF technology.

眾所周知，儘管浸沒式光刻技術目前處於領先地位，但它無法在關鍵層上實現業界的幾何縮放，例如，在 DRAM 領域，無法將關鍵層縮小到 15 至 20 奈米以下，在 NAND 和邏輯領域，無法將關鍵層縮小到 10 至 15 奈米以下，即使透過自對準圖案或反面這些技術也無法實現這些關鍵技術。這些浸入式技術在關鍵層的使用將很難停止。當然，到 2020 年代，浸沒式技術將與 KrF 技術一起應用於許多非關鍵層。

The transition from immersion to EUV on the critical layers will, however -- and this is important, this is our key message -- will be gradual. First, customers with a huge install base in immersion lithography systems in the fabs and other dedicated process equipment will use amortized equipment for as long as possible and will bring the EUV system in only after maximum technically feasible utilization of the install base first.

然而，關鍵層從浸沒式到 EUV 的轉變將是漸進的——這很重要，這是我們的關鍵訊息。首先，在晶圓廠中擁有大量浸沒式光刻系統和其他專用製程設備安裝基礎的客戶將盡可能長時間地使用攤銷設備，並且只有在最大限度地利用安裝基礎之後才會引入 EUV 系統。

The second question is that each layers at each new node will have more or less complexity for which EUV transition will be more or less economically and technically obvious. It's not a question of node; it's a question of layers per node. Each of the layers have I would call its personality. So for instance, key enabling [Vios], or contact layers for logic, DRAM, and even NAND are currently the most obvious insertion layers for EUV, as EUV helps manufacturing control yield while providing the possibility of better shrink factors. A die on EUV could be as small as 10% smaller than a die made by an alternative technology -- and also making use of less design restriction.

第二個問題是，每個新節點上的每一層都會有或多或少的複雜性，而 EUV 轉換在經濟和技術上會或多或少明顯。這不是節點的問題；這是每個節點的層數的問題。每一層都有我稱之為個性的。例如，關鍵啟用層 [Vios] 或邏輯、DRAM 甚至 NAND 的接觸層目前是 EUV 最明顯的插入層，因為 EUV 有助於製造控制產量，同時提供更好的縮小因素的可能性。採用 EUV 製造的晶片可能比採用替代技術製造的晶片小 10%——並且設計限制更少。

The third point, third aspect, which explains gradual is that the suppliers providing EUV systems like an infrastructure like us will provide continuously improved equipment adapted first to the most complex challenges until a time when the production capacity and the product development allows a shipment of a larger number of systems at improved specifications and costs for all critical layers. So in other terms, our machines will improve as we go, and as it improves, its economics are better and better and (inaudible) better and better, they will move into a different set of layers.

第三點，第三個方面，解釋了漸進性，即像我們這樣的提供 EUV 系統的基礎設施的供應商將提供不斷改進的設備，首先適應最複雜的挑戰，直到生產能力和產品開發允許以改進的規格和成本為所有關鍵層出貨大量系統。換句話說，我們的機器會隨著我們的發展而不斷改進，隨著它的改進，它的經濟性會越來越好，而且（聽不清楚）越來越好，它們將進入不同的層次。

So these are three factors, the use of current install base, ever more technically challenging image requirement and progressive availability of the EUV system with better economics will make EUV transition gradual. Most customers are proceeding today on this with the development of some layers to be either processed with immersion and/or with EUV, thus having the security of a known technology as a backup, but the full use of EUV and its enabling capability if and when it works. XML will support this gradual ramp with an aggressive dual product strategy, of course. We continue innovation on our immersion platform concurrent with the huge development of the EUV platform.

因此，這三個因素：使用目前的安裝基礎、技術上更具挑戰性的影像要求以及具有更好經濟性的 EUV 系統的逐步可用性將使 EUV 過渡逐漸實現。目前，大多數客戶都在著手開發一些採用浸沒式和/或 EUV 進行處理的層，這樣就可以將已知技術的安全性作為備份，但可以充分利用 EUV 及其啟用功能（如果有效）。當然，XML 將透過積極的雙產品策略來支持這一逐步成長。在 EUV 平台取得巨大發展的同時，我們也持續對浸入式平台進行創新。

Regarding critical layers which will use immersion, we are developing the next generation machine, the next generation NXT, which will set new throughput and overlay standards. We are also in parallel strengthening our suite of holistic lithograph software and hardware products which enable the process window enlargement and improve the process drift management and the capability of matching a machine, which becomes more and more a requirement.

對於將使用浸入式技術的關鍵層，我們正在開發下一代機器，即下一代 NXT，它將設定新的吞吐量和覆蓋標準。我們也在同時加強我們的整體光刻軟體和硬體產品套件，以擴大製程視窗並改善製程漂移管理和匹配機器的能力，這變得越來越重要。

Our customers' process complexity and our associated product solution will contribute to XML revenue growth of course, but also will ensure leadership, as for instance machine matching and compatibility is becoming an ever ever growing requirement. If you have an install base of ASML machine, it becomes natural and necessary to adopt more ASML machines for this important compatibility.

我們客戶的流程複雜性和我們相關的產品解決方案當然將有助於 XML 收入的成長，同時也將確保領先地位，例如機器匹配和相容性正成為日益增長的需求。如果您擁有 ASML 機器的安裝基礎，那麼採用更多 ASML 機器來實現這種重要的相容性就變得自然且必要。

Regarding EUV, we have shipped five at EUV preproduction [an] NXE 3100 at this moment. There's six shipping in fact as we speak. Integration has become on the first NXE 3300, which is a new generation of production tools slated for delivery on the second half of 2012.

關於 EUV，我們目前在 EUV 預生產階段出貨了五台 NXE 3100。事實上，正如我們所說，有六艘船在運行。整合已在第一台 NXE 3300 上進行，這是新一代生產工具，計劃於 2012 年下半年交付。

Our current EUV throughput roadmap has been updated. So we indeed incurred a cumulative 1.5 years delay on this development in large part due to the investment in the EUV source development area which was not commensurate with the complexity of the task. After several months of heavy involvement with the three potential source suppliers, we now clearly understand the key issues to be addressed and are intensively cooperating with the suppliers on sub programs, on numbers of sub programs, to drive execution of this roadmap.

我們目前的 EUV 吞吐量路線圖已更新。因此，我們確實在這項開發上累積延後了 1.5 年，這在很大程度上是由於對 EUV 源開發領域的投資與任務的複雜性不相稱。經過幾個月與三個潛在源供應商的深入合作，我們現在清楚地了解了需要解決的關鍵問題，並正在與供應商就子項目、子項目數量進行密切合作，以推動該路線圖的執行。

We now plan to achieve commercially viable throughput of our target 60 wafer per hour in the field in the summer of 2012. We will achieve our target 125 wafer per hour on the 3300 a year later. We are currently building capacity for one system per month from mid 2012 out through end of 2013, ramping to two per month in 2014 and then three per month in 2015 in anticipation of the gradual demand curve which I described before.

我們目前計劃在 2012 年夏季實現每小時 60 片晶圓的商業可行產量目標。一年後我們將在3300上實現每小時125片晶圓的目標。我們目前正在建造的容量為從 2012 年中期到 2013 年底每月一套系統的容量，2014 年將增加到每月兩套，2015 年將增加到每月三套，以滿足我之前描述的逐步需求曲線。

So in summary, in the perspective of the development of, on one hand, multi-patterning immersion and on the other hand the gradual insertion of EUV, we see the next four to five years as a path to good secular growth.

總而言之，從多重圖案浸沒技術的發展以及 EUV 的逐步引入來看，我們認為未來四到五年將是一條實現良好長期成長的道路。

So with this, Peter and I would be pleased to take your questions.

因此，彼得和我很樂意回答您的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will strike you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session, but before hand I'd like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now, with that, operator, could you please give your instructions and then the first question please?

女士們，先生們，接線員將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程，但在此之前，我想請您將問題限制在一個範圍內，並在必要時進行一個簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。現在，接線員，請您給予指示，然後問第一個問題好嗎？

(Operator Instructions). Sumant Wahi.

（操作員指令）。蘇曼特·瓦希。

This is Sumant from Redburn Partners. I think the question is actually for Eric. The question is basically that in the Q2 conference call, you kind of pointed out that the minimum spend by industry for technology upgrade will be about EUR750 million per quarter, which was excluding EUV. Now, if I add about 5 (inaudible) to that, I get to about EUR3.35 billion, EUR3.4 billion of sales for 2012, which is kind of the minimum spend you were pointing to. I was wondering. Looking at your famous fab model, where do you see the semiconductor industry today? Is it looking purely as a tech upgrade happening in 2012 or is there some capacity addition as well? I have a quick follow-up.

我是 Redburn Partners 的 Sumant。我認為這個問題實際上是問 Eric 的。問題基本上是，在第二季的電話會議上，您指出，該產業用於技術升級的最低支出約為每季 7.5 億歐元，其中不包括 EUV。現在，如果我將大約 5（聽不清楚）添加到該數字，我得到的是大約 33.5 億歐元，2012 年的銷售額為 34 億歐元，這是您所指的最低支出。我想知道。看看您著名的晶圓廠模型，您認為當今的半導體產業處於什麼位置？2012 年是否純粹是技術升級，還是也增加了一些產能？我有一個快速的後續行動。

As we would like to be disciplined today and not guide on 2012 because we don't have enough facts. We usually report to you facts, meaning when our customers are ready to put orders for our machines which have long leadtime and we usually give those facts, this time we don't have facts, so we cannot really guide on 2012.

因為今天我們想嚴守紀律，不會對 2012 年做出任何預測，因為我們沒有足夠的事實。我們通常會向您報告事實，這意味著當我們的客戶準備訂購我們的機器時，這些機器的交貨期很長，我們通常會提供這些事實，但這次我們沒有事實，所以我們無法真正指導 2012 年。

What we said, however, what Peter said, is that there is a good technology transition wave in 2012. As we also mentioned before, a lot of our partners in the DRAM business and in the logic business are improving or reducing their usual cycles of transition. We see DRAM now every year, and we see logic even better than the usual two years going to 18 months, so we know this is positive. But again, we cannot, at this moment, comment at all on the total picture for 2012, which will have to include capacity build.

然而，我們、彼得都說，2012 年將出現一波良好的科技轉型浪潮。正如我們之前提到的，我們在 DRAM 業務和邏輯業務中的許多合作夥伴正在改善或縮短其通常的過渡週期。我們現在每年都會看到 DRAM，而且我們看到的邏輯甚至比通常的兩年到 18 個月更好，所以我們知道這是積極的。但同樣，我們目前無法對2012年的整體情況發表評論，因為其中必須包括產能建設。

Okay. I guess my follow-up is looking at the current capacity, in the beginning of this year, you were talking about building up the capacity adds ASML to suffice EUR2 billion per quarter of revenue. But looking at the order pattern right now, it looks like 2012 you would have much lower sales. So would you be considering any sort of cost cuts at this point in time? What are your fixed factory costs at this current moment?

好的。我想我的後續問題是專注於當前的產能，今年年初，您談到要增加 ASML 的產能，以滿足每季 20 億歐元的收入。但從目前的訂單模式來看，2012 年的銷售額似乎會低很多。那麼，您目前會考慮採取任何形式的成本削減措施嗎？目前您的固定工廠成本是多少？

Absolutely. We commit to the world to scale our OpEx to the level of sales. But indeed, as you say, we also have such a large market share that we need to provide for the customers a very short-term demand. So we are playing between this maximum flexibility up in terms of output and the possibility of always providing a P&L, which creates value. So we do have this variability on OpEx. We can exercise it between three to six months, and we can go towards very low OpEx if necessary. Most of the activity on OpEx would be the reduction of contracted work, which will be because we leverage a lot of activities, R&D as well as development -- I mean support with companies, but we also have a larger flex workforce. So again, today, we are still running our business to have in 2012 a good year because we need to be capable of delivering, but we also have a scenario in which we need to reduce our OpEx to adapt to the possibility of lower (inaudible).

絕對地。我們向全世界承諾將我們的營運支出擴大到與銷售額相當的水平。但確實，正如您所說，我們的市場份額如此之大，以至於我們需要為客戶提供非常短期的需求。因此，我們在產出方面的最大靈活性和始終提供損益的可能性之間進行權衡，從而創造價值。所以我們的營運支出確實存在這種變化。我們可以在三到六個月內實施該措施，如果有必要的話，我們可以降低營運支出。營運支出的大部分活動將是減少合約工作，這是因為我們利用了許多活動、研發以及開發——我的意思是對公司的支持，但我們也擁有更大的彈性勞動力。所以，今天我們仍然在經營我們的業務，希望 2012 年是一個好年頭，因為我們需要有能力實現目標，但我們也面臨著需要降低營運支出以適應較低（聽不清楚）可能性的情況。

Could you give any sort of figures on COGS for example, fixed factory costs within the COGS or not at this point?

您能否提供任何有關 COGS 的數字，例如，目前 COGS 中是否包含固定工廠成本？

Peter, would you --?

彼得，你會──？

Yes, I think we don't do that. We've done that when our sales dropped to almost 0, and then people were still counting with gross margins that were in the 30s%, well, if you have no sales and you have only fixed costs, that's why we started to talk about fixed costs which of course makes sense. So no, that is not the case.

是的，我認為我們不會這麼做。當我們的銷售額幾乎降至 0 時，我們就這樣做了，而人們仍然計算著 30% 的毛利率，好吧，如果你沒有銷售額而只有固定成本，這就是我們開始談論固定成本的原因，這當然是有道理的。所以，事實並非如此。

If you want to know what particular levels of gross margin you can expect, I would take the last let's say seven quarters as a proxy of the different levels of sales and the gross margin. That would be good for your model.

如果您想知道可以預期的具體毛利率水平，我將以過去七個季度作為不同銷售額和毛利率水平的代表。這對於你的模型來說會很好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gareth Jenkins.

加雷斯·詹金斯。

It's UBS. Just a few on EUV, if I may, fairly quick ones. I just wonder Eric what really gives you the additional confidence that, in terms of EUV, that customers will take EUV for the 1X node in DRAM and NAND. Just two quick follow-ups. I just wonder if you could give us a sense of how many layers you see as being critical with EUV.

是瑞銀。如果可以的話，我只想快速地介紹幾個關於 EUV 的內容。我只是想知道 Eric，就 EUV 而言，是什麼真正給了你額外的信心，相信客戶會在 DRAM 和 NAND 的 1X 節點上使用 EUV。只需快速跟進兩個問題。我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們，您認為 EUV 中有多少層是至關重要的。

Than the last one probably for Peter, just on R&D, what percentage of R&D is EUV currently? Is that kind of EUR20 million to EUR30 million step up of kind of abnormal R&D currently in these projects that will then step back down again as it matures? Thanks.

或許對 Peter 來說，最後一個問題僅在於研發，目前 EUV 佔研發的百分比是多少？這些專案目前的研發投入是否為 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬歐元的異常成長，而隨著專案成熟，研發投入是否會再次減少？謝謝。

So we believe that, for the NAND business, around 18 nanometers will have a contact layer, which is extremely, extremely, extremely difficult to manage without EUV. As usual [in life] things should be done differently, but we have huge push on an 18 nano one layer contact in that.

因此我們認為，對於 NAND 業務來說，大約 18 奈米將有一個接觸層，如果沒有 EUV，這將極其難以管理。像往常一樣（在生活中），事情應該以不同的方式去做，但我們對 18 奈米單層接觸有著巨大的推動作用。

In the DRAM arena, we have two layers in the 20-ish, 20, 22 nanometer environment, which has the same opportunity.

在 DRAM 領域，我們在 20 左右、20、22 奈米環境中有兩層，它們具有相同的機會。

So to be clear on this one, it's for us to take. So if the machine runs well enough, we will take those layers and they will justify a fairly good ramp, by the way. If we delay this, indeed then it will be a significantly difficult process using double patterning, trouble pattering or whatever, which also will contribute with about the same level of I would say [lethal] spend. So we're not considering the EUV introduction as being an (inaudible) for us, but it is for our customers because EUV is more cost effective, so we are working extremely hard to get this to happen on time.

因此，為了明確這一點，我們需要採取行動。因此，如果機器運行得足夠好，我們將採用這些層，順便說一句，它們將證明一個相當好的坡道。如果我們推遲這一進程，那麼使用雙重圖案、麻煩圖案或其他任何方法都將是一個非常困難的過程，這也將導致我認為大約相同程度的[致命]損失。因此，我們並不認為 EUV 的引入對我們來說是（聽不清楚），但對我們的客戶來說卻是，因為 EUV 更具成本效益，所以我們正在非常努力地讓這一過程按時實現。

The R&D effort in EUV at this moment is I would say about simplify more than one-third of our spend. We are building up a bit more than that, again, for another year or so. After that, we could stabilize. But again, as we've noticed in this business, the R&D curve can go down if we only go to maintenance, but good for us we always see another opportunity. So in other terms, if I'm right with the secular growth options, which we're starting to see, we will need in fact to upgrade our EUV machines to new generations for the good of creating growth. And so on one hand, I see the possibility of going down in R&D if and when the business matures, but if the business doesn't mature as we could start seeing now between 2015 and '20, then we will probably maintain the current level of R&D.

目前，我認為 EUV 領域的研發工作可以簡化我們三分之一以上的支出。我們也將繼續進行更多工作，再過一年左右的時間。此後我們就能穩定下來。但是，正如我們在這個行業中註意到的那樣，如果我們只進行維護，研發曲線就會下降，但對我們來說有利的是我們總是可以看到另一個機會。因此，換句話說，如果我對我們開始看到的長期成長選擇的判斷正確的話，我們實際上需要將我們的 EUV 機器升級到新一代，以實現成長。因此，一方面，我認為如果業務成熟，研發投入可能會減少，但如果業務沒有成熟，正如我們現在在 2015 年至 2020 年之間看到的那樣，那麼我們可能會維持目前的研發水準。

Thanks.

謝謝。

[Gunar Plaha].

[古納爾·普拉哈]。

It's [Lowat City]. Eric, you provided a bit longer-term outlook. I was wondering. I understand clearly from a customer perspective EUV is a preferable solution given that it gives you profitability advantages through [shrinking] competitive efficiency gains from 450 millimeters. But at what stage would you expect to make expenses for (inaudible) EUR50 million as well. You see some companies now in the supply-chain starting to spend next year.

是【洛瓦特城】。艾瑞克，你提供了一些更長遠的展望。我想知道。我清楚地理解，從客戶的角度來看，EUV 是一種更好的解決方案，因為它可以透過 450 毫米的競爭效率提升為您帶來獲利優勢。但在什麼階段您預計會支出（聽不清楚） 5000 萬歐元。您會看到現在供應鏈中的一些公司明年就開始支出。

And my follow-up for Peter would be is it possible to qualify slightly the sequential Q4 order increase that you're expecting? Is it purely seasonal affect? Could you give a little bit more color on that? Thanks.

我對彼得的後續問題是，是否可以稍微說明您預期的第四季訂單連續成長？這純粹是季節性的影響嗎？您能對此做更詳細的說明嗎？謝謝。

So let me start with 450 and then Peter will handle the bookings question on 450. So clearly we believe that the top four to top six largest manufacturers or semi conductors will develop, will push for a 450 transition in due time. We think, at this moment, due time is probably a real prototyping around 2016, 2017, and potential production around 2018. Before that, there could be some demonstration units, and you've seen and heard some reports on consortium, particularly in the New York State, discussing the possibly of demonstration and feasibility. But I would say this is minimum investment. This is more demonstration than it is industrialization.

因此，讓我從 450 開始，然後 Peter 將處理 450 的預訂問題。因此，我們清楚地相信，前四到前六大半導體製造商將會發展，並在適當的時候推動 450 轉型。我們認為，目前，實際原型設計可能在 2016 年、2017 年左右進行，潛在生產可能在 2018 年左右進行。在此之前，可能會有一些示範單位，而且你已經看到和聽到一些關於財團的報告，特別是在紐約州，討論示範的可能性和可行性。但我想說這是最低投資。這更多的是示範而不是工業化。

So I would think at this moment the whole industry would agree with what I said, which is, in the best case, serious prototyping beyond 2016, serious production beyond 2018. On these dates, I guess, or most suppliers, increment suppliers, are working and discussing with their largest customers to confirm that there is an insertion point, and obviously to share the economics. This is not yet -- we haven't yet reached agreement on that, the whole industry hasn't yet reached agreement on that. But we're very I would say open book to -- on these questions and expect that there will be conversions in due time.

所以我認為現在整個產業都會同意我的說法，也就是在最好的情況下，2016 年以後進行認真的原型設計，2018 年以後進行認真的生產。我猜想，在這些日期，或者大多數供應商、增量供應商都在與他們的最大客戶合作和討論，以確認有一個插入點，並且顯然是為了分享經濟效益。這還沒有——我們還沒有就此達成一致，整個產業還沒有就此達成一致。但我想說，我們對這些問題持非常開放的態度，並期望在適當的時候會出現轉變。

Okay, thank you. I've got on the question on the I say the qualitative statement on the order intake on Q4, I have a question on whether there's any seasonality there. Now, we did mention on previous occasions that what we normally see is indeed that, in Q4, customer budgets are actually set and the [volume] purchase agreements are signed with us, and that means that the purchasing people then have a proxy to start negotiating and placing the orders.

好的，謝謝。我有一個問題，關於第四季度訂單量的定性陳述，我有一個問題，即是否存在季節性。現在，我們之前確實提到過，我們通常看到的確實是，在第四季度，客戶預算實際上已經確定，並且與我們簽署了[批量]採購協議，這意味著採購人員有一個代理開始談判和下訂單。

But I want to make it quite clear that what I said also in the opening statement that we are of course focusing on the next generation technology upgrades for next year which customers have taken their decisions on. It's just what we see is a start of placing the orders for that next generation technology upgrade. Having said that, that it is logical that we would see that let's say next-generation upgrade order coming in in Q4 but it was hard to imagine that it would stop in Q4 because that would mean customers would place everything that they need for 2012 in only three months' time, which they won't. So, I don't think there is any seasonal trend, but it's just a matter that that time of the year is a logical time for our customers to actually start thinking and acting on what they need the next year.

但我想明確指出的是，我在開場白中也說過，我們當然會關註明年的下一代技術升級，客戶已經對此做出了決定。我們看到的只是下一代技術升級的訂單的開始。話雖如此，我們看到下一代升級訂單在第四季度到來是合乎邏輯的，但很難想像它會在第四季度停止，因為這意味著客戶會在短短三個月內訂購 2012 年所需的一切，而他們不會這樣做。所以，我不認為有任何季節性趨勢，而只是一年中的那個時候對我們的客戶來說是一個合理時間，可以真正開始思考並採取行動來年需要什麼。

Simon Schafer.

西蒙·謝弗。

It's Goldman Sachs. My first question was also on EUV actually. I think I understood, Eric, that as you said before, second half of 2012 would be revenue recognition for the initial 3300 set. But when would that revenue actually show up in orders? Would that be a Q2 issue when you would actually be able to print that in your order book?

是高盛。我的第一個問題其實也是關於 EUV 的。艾瑞克，我想我明白了，正如你之前所說，2012 年下半年將確認最初的 3300 套產品的收入。但這些收入什麼時候才會真正體現在訂單中呢？當您實際上能夠將其列印在訂單簿中時，這會成為第二季的問題嗎？

Peter?

彼得？

Could you (multiple speakers) --

您能否（多位發言者）－

(multiple speakers) bookings for EUV.

（多位發言者）EUV 的預訂。

The timing of the EUV bookings for the next generation for -- yes. It's clear that at the time of those bookings we would indeed expect when the EUV program delivers the results that we're currently planning for, like we said, we will see upgrade to the midteens as we have said. That will actually drive clearly the need for our customers to take into account the fact that order leadtimes for EUV tools are beyond 12 months. They are actually quite a bit longer, so that means that bookings for the 3300 beyond what we currently see need to come in clearly I would say in the first half of next year, taking into account that the first 10 tools have already been ordered and we have about the capacity to do 18 units until the end of 2013. That's about one per month starting from July 2012 onwards. So, that means that there are only a few systems that we can book until the end of 2013, and we would expect that those orders would have to come in the first half of 2012.

下一代 EUV 預訂的時間是——是的。很明顯，在進行這些預訂時，我們確實期望 EUV 計劃能夠實現我們目前計劃的結果，就像我們所說的那樣，我們將看到升級到十五六代。這實際上將清楚地促使我們的客戶考慮到 EUV 工具的訂單交付週期超過 12 個月的事實。它們實際上要長得多，這意味著，除了我們目前看到的 3300 型之外，訂單量還需要在明年上半年才能達到，考慮到前 10 台工具已經訂購，到 2013 年底我們大約有能力生產 18 台。從 2012 年 7 月開始，大約每月一次。所以，這意味著到 2013 年底我們只能預訂少數幾個系統，而我們預計這些訂單必須在 2012 年上半年完成。

Got it. But just to clarify, Peter, I know the initial 10 orders that have already been placed, but you haven't necessarily printed those in your order intake. Is that right for the (multiple speakers)?

知道了。但彼得，需要澄清的是，我知道最初已經下了 10 個訂單，但您不一定會在訂單中列印這些訂單。對（多位發言者）來說，這樣正確嗎？

Correct. That's correct. Like we said, we actually have viewed the EUV systems as the R&D systems for the 3100 series, and clearly these are the production series. So this would be a time and we are considering internally to say when are we going to show them in the backlog. Everybody knows it's about EUR70 million, EUR75 million average, and we have 10 units, so it's EUR700 million to EUR750 million of EUV orders that we currently have. That is not reflected in the backlog yet. Where we anticipate that we will start shipping in the third quarter of next year with a -- you could say with a speed of one, two per month going forward for the next 18 months. So this is clearly a time when we need to start considering taking them into the regular backlog. Like I said earlier, they are orders that we take for EUV. They have somewhat longer time because the order leadtime that we actually need for the total chain, for the supply-chain and our own build time goes beyond 12 months. So we always said we want to show the order backlog actually reflecting what we think we can sell in the next 12 months, so we need to decide internally what is the right moment to start putting the EUV orders in. But it won't be far away.

正確的。沒錯。正如我們所說的那樣，我們實際上將 EUV 系統視為 3100 系列的研發系統，顯然這些是生產系列。所以這將是一個時間，我們正在內部考慮何時向他們展示積壓的工作。大家都知道大約是 7,000 萬歐元，平均 7,500 萬歐元，我們有 10 個單位，所以我們目前擁有的 EUV 訂單價值為 7 億歐元至 7.5 億歐元。這尚未反映在積壓訂單中。我們預計將於明年第三季開始出貨——可以說，未來 18 個月內每月出貨一到兩輛。因此，現在顯然是我們需要開始考慮將它們納入常規積壓工作的時候了。就像我之前說的，這些是我們為 EUV 承接的訂單。他們有更長的時間，因為我們整個鏈條、供應鏈和我們自己的建造時間實際需要的訂單交付週期超過了 12 個月。因此，我們總是說，我們希望訂單積壓實際上反映出我們認為在未來 12 個月內可以銷售的產品，因此我們需要在內部決定開始下達 EUV 訂單的正確時機。但它不會遙遠。

Got it, thank you very much. My second question would be just on the balance sheet. It impacts the share buyback program, this up cycle, but still sitting there with EUR2.1 billion net cash for the [first] -- as usual at this point in the cycle, you've actually seen of course an increased amount of M&A overall. I wonder whether you can maybe just update us as to how you're thinking about potential opportunities, perhaps venturing out of your core expertise area of lithography? Historically, that something you've contemplated in the past, and perhaps other times sort of abandoned again, but maybe you could update us on your latest thoughts. Thank you.

明白了，非常感謝。我的第二個問題是關於資產負債表的。它影響了股票回購計劃，這是上升週期，但仍然保持著 21 億歐元的淨現金（首次）——與週期中的這個階段一樣，你當然會看到總體併購數量增加。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對潛在機會的看法，或許可以嘗試突破您的核心專業領域光刻技術？從歷史上看，這是您過去曾考慮過的事情，但也許其他時候又放棄了，但也許您可以向我們更新您的最新想法。謝謝。

I think, as I say, the EUR2.8 billion cash balance in the context of M&A, you can rest assured we have no specific plans there, so that means taking into account that on the EUR2.8 billion, we have about EUR800 million of prepayments on EUV for which clearly we still need to invest. We are actually starting to invest in work in process. We will have receivable balances that we need to finance. So the EUR2.8 billion, there's about EUR800 million of current prepayments in there. But clearly we will, given that the 2012 profitability profile, we will generate cash, so we have said clearly that above our cash balances we will keep returning cash back to the shareholders which will be in the form of dividends and of share buybacks. I think that is the most obvious use of the excess cash balance that we currently see.

我認為，正如我所說，在併購背景下的 28 億歐元現金餘額，您可以放心，我們在那裡沒有具體的計劃，這意味著考慮到 28 億歐元中，我們有大約 8 億歐元的 EUV 預付款，顯然我們仍然需要投資。我們實際上已經開始對在製品進行投資。我們將有需要融資的應收帳款餘額。因此，28 億歐元中約有 8 億歐元為目前預付款。但顯然我們會的，考慮到2012年的獲利狀況，我們將產生現金，因此我們已經明確表示，除了現金餘額之外，我們將繼續以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還現金。我認為這是我們目前看到的超額現金餘額最明顯的用途。

Thanks Peter, thank you.

謝謝彼得，謝謝你。

Janardan Menon.

賈納丹·梅農。

It's Janardan from Liberum Capital. Actually, it's another question on EUV if I might. You said that you're getting a new light source which will take you up to the midteens of wafer throughput in Q4. I was just wondering. Going forward from there up to about 50, 60 wafers per hour by the second half of next year and then to 125 wafers per hour in the second half of 2013. What are the milestones? What are the expectations you have from light source supply or any other and how you expect to ramp that up? If you give a little bit of color to give us a feel on how that's going to happen?

他是 Liberum Capital 的 Janardan。實際上，如果可以的話，這是關於 EUV 的另一個問題。您說過您將獲得一種新的光源，這將使您在第四季度的晶圓產量達到十五六倍。我只是好奇。到明年下半年，每小時可生產約 50 到 60 片晶圓，到 2013 年下半年，每小時可生產 125 片晶圓。有哪些里程碑？您對光源供應或其他方面有何期望？您期望如何提高這項期望？你能稍微描述一下情況讓我們了解一下這會如何發生嗎？

Just to clarify, if a leading DRAM manufacture, say, is going to go to, say, a sub -- a low 20 nanometer production on DRAM by the second half of next year -- I was a bit confused. Do you think he will use an EUV for at least two layers or is EUV for commercial production clearly going to be pushed into 2013?

需要澄清的是，如果一家領先的 DRAM 製造商要在明年下半年之前將 DRAM 產量降至 20 奈米以下，我有點困惑。您認為他會使用 EUV 進行至少兩層生產嗎？或者 EUV 的商業化生產會被延後到 2013 年？

So the reason why we feel now that we're comfortable about the roadmap is -- and the understanding of what we need to do is we have identified that there are numbers of things which are difficult to do and there are numbers of things which are not that difficult to do. They are more deterministic. They just take time.

因此，我們現在對路線圖感到滿意的原因是——並且了解我們需要做的事情是，我們已經確定有很多事情很難做，也有很多事情並不那麼難做。它們更加確定。它們只是需要時間。

So today you see us showing good body language because there are two or three things of difficulty that we have to prove by December. They are in I would say the critical areas of generation of the radiation. But then there's a lot of activities which is just multiplying I would say the results of this radiation by improving the effectiveness of the delivery of this radiation to the wafer. This is we say just work.

所以今天你看到我們表現出了良好的肢體語言，因為有兩三件困難的事情我們必須在 12 月之前證明。我想說，它們處於輻射產生的關鍵區域。但是還有很多活動只是透過提高將輻射傳輸到晶圓的效率來增加輻射的效果。這就是我們說的剛才的工作。

So we see a step-by-step approach by which at the end of December, as we said, we will get between, say, 15, 20 wafer per hour proven. Then from there, we will have those multipliers coming in on a regular basis in 2012 so that we achieve what I just said, 60 wafer per hour by midyear and then going further with even more efficiency move towards the 120, 25 wafer per hour. So in other terms, the separation now of complex stuff from less complex seems -- is giving us this confidence level that we are now much more under control of the development of this effort, this [source].

因此，我們看到了一種循序漸進的方法，正如我們所說的，到 12 月底，我們將實現每小時 15 到 20 片晶圓的產量。然後從那時起，我們將在 2012 年定期使用這些乘數，以便我們實現我剛才所說的目標，到年中實現每小時 60 個晶圓，然後進一步提高效率，達到每小時 120 個、25 個晶圓。換句話說，現在將複雜的東西與不太複雜的東西分開似乎——給了我們這種信心，我們現在對這項工作的發展有了更多的控制權，這[來源]。

Regarding market timing, the machines that are used today, the 3100s, will be used only for recipe. That is starting -- in fact started this year and will continue until the end of 2012, and the 3300s are the preproduction machine that could be used on some layers. So you could see them being delivered in mid 2012 on, and starting to ramp up production of some layers in the first half of 2013.

就市場時機而言，今天使用的機器 3100 將僅用於配方。事實上，這項工作從今年就開始了，並將持續到 2012 年底，而 3300 是可以在某些層上使用的預生產機器。因此，你可以看到它們在 2012 年中期開始交付，並在 2013 年上半年開始增加某些層的產量。

On Slide 22, we have a few of the examples mentioned which gives us the higher confidence level that you noticed. Now we're not going to go into the technical detail because it is clear that some of it also has some competitive elements there, but it gives you an indication that we do clearly know where we need to look for that increased productivity and what the reason is for that high confidence.

在投影片 22 上，我們提到了一些範例，這些範例為我們提供了更高的置信度。現在我們不打算討論技術細節，因為很明顯其中一些也有一些競爭因素，但它表明我們確實清楚地知道我們需要在哪裡尋找提高生產力的方法，以及高度信心的原因是什麼。

And a small follow-up if I may. I know you're not saying anything at all about 2012 today, but which segments would you be more confident about for next year, and where would you be less confident? Would your confidence be higher on the NAND and the Foundry side and less on the DRAM? Would that be a fair characterization of how you would look at 2012?

如果可以的話，我可以再跟進。我知道您今天並沒有談論 2012 年，但是對於明年，您對哪些領域更有信心，又對哪些領域不太有信心呢？您對 NAND 和 Foundry 方面的信心是否較高，而對 DRAM 的信心則較低？這是否能公正地描述您對 2012 年的看法？

(multiple speakers) NAND is a good business for everybody. As you know, there is more and more excitement about the product, the end products and the creation of more opportunity of NAND in PCs as well as in tablets. So as you know, NAND was driven by tablets and mobile phone. Tomorrow it will be driven by mobile phone again, by tablet, but also by PCs with SSDs and more effective user (inaudible). So indeed NAND is going to be a growth business I would say in 2012.

（多位發言者）NAND 對每個人來說都是一門好生意。如您所知，人們對該產品、最終產品以及 NAND 在個人電腦和平板電腦中創造的更多機會越來越感興趣。如您所知，NAND 是由平板電腦和手機驅動的。明天它將再次由手機、平板電腦驅動，而且還將由配備 SSD 和更有效的用戶（聽不清楚）的個人電腦驅動。所以我認為 NAND 確實會在 2012 年成為一項成長業務。

DRAM was so bad today, in 2011, that we think there is an opportunity to create a good litho business, not so much because of the wafer starts, possible that the wafer starts 2012 will not be so good, but the technology is a big user of lithography. So we could expect growth of DRAM from a fairly low base 2011. The Foundry is in fact the key segment which will make 2012 a good year or an average year. This is what we have a bit more difficulty to call.

2011 年，DRAM 市場表現非常糟糕，因此我們認為有機會創造良好的光刻業務，這並不是因為晶圓的開工率，2012 年的晶圓開工率可能不會那麼好，而是該技術是光刻技術的一大用戶。因此，我們可以預期 DRAM 將從 2011 年相當低的基數開始成長。事實上，鑄造廠是決定 2012 年業績好壞的關鍵環節。這是我們比較難稱呼的。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Mehdi Hosseini.

梅赫迪·胡賽尼。

This is Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna International. Eric, going back to late '08, '09, it seems to me that your customers cut through the maintenance level and everything just froze. This time around, it's quite different than back then. So we're not in the same environment as 2008. Is that correct or do you have any thoughts? And I have a follow-up.

我是 Susquehanna International 的 Mehdi Hosseini。艾瑞克，回顧 2008 年底和 2009 年，我覺得你的客戶削減了維護級別，一切都凍結了。這一次，情況與那時截然不同。因此我們現在所處的環境與 2008 年不同。這是正確的嗎或您有什麼想法嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

I cannot even (inaudible) that macroeconomic question. Yes indeed, we have in 2008, '09, a freeze of six months because the world was stunned by the banking crisis. Remember, this was a time when people thought the whole economy would implode. This created a sense of we don't need to take long-term decision now, and we can delay decision, so it was not a rational view of life. It was an absolute life stop until things become normal. So today indeed we have a crisis which is not yet obviously consumption driven. It's a crisis of confidence due to the too high leverage of the world in general, deficits, management, foreign debt creditability, etc. But we do not have yet a feeling at all at our customer that there is a freeze of decision. Indeed, this is why Peter mentioned that we expect more bookings in Q4, because in fact the customers are saying, "Well, at least we can take the decisions which are the obvious decisions, which are the technology decisions, and we need these numbers." Then from there we gain time before we can take the decisions on the capacity. So we are in a completely different environment at this moment.

我甚至無法（聽不清楚）這個宏觀經濟問題。是的，2008年和2009年，我們經歷了六個月的凍結期，因為當時世界受到了銀行業危機的衝擊。請記住，當時人們認為整個經濟將會崩潰。這讓人覺得我們現在不需要做出長期決定，我們可以延後決定，所以這不是理性的人生觀。在一切恢復正常之前，生活絕對會停止。所以今天我們確實面臨著一場尚未明顯由消費驅動的危機。這是全球普遍槓桿率過高、赤字、管理、外債信用等造成的信任危機。但我們還沒有感覺到我們的客戶有任何決策凍結的情況。事實上，這就是為什麼彼得提到我們預計第四季度會有更多訂單，因為事實上客戶在說：「好吧，至少我們可以做出一些顯而易見的決定，一些技術決定，我們需要這些數字。」然後，我們就有時間做出有關容量的決定。所以我們現在處於一個完全不同的環境。

Sure. Then as a follow-up, or rather more like a qualification -- clarification, when we look into the first half of next year as bookings for 3300 come in and assuming like a worst-case scenario your customers would still be focused on R&D and the non-EUV orders would be more maintenance CapEx, then ASML could see an order environment that could be quite different than the rest of the equipment industry because of the 3300. I'm not asking for guidance on Q1 or Q2 of next year. It's just qualitatively.

當然。然後作為後續行動，或者更像是一種資格——澄清，當我們展望明年上半年 3300 的訂單時，假設最壞的情況是您的客戶仍然會專注於研發，而非 EUV 訂單將是更多的維護資本支出，那麼由於 3300，ASML 可能會看到與其他設備行業截然不同的訂單環境。我並不是尋求對明年第一季或第二季的指導。這只是質上的問題。

Indeed we are proud of our model, which survives from the increase of lithography intensity and EUV is going to be a key factor through this lithography intensity, so no matter what the macroeconomic picture is, we have an underlying rich opportunity here. EUV, again, will make -- will underline that. As a measure of this performance, you can see 2011; 2011 has been already shaken since April. As we all know, since April, the market has started to be concerned about the total need for semiconductors. But 2011 for us will, one, be a record year, and two, even our guidance early into the year has not really wavered. We are able to make that number. So, this litho intensity (inaudible) no matter what is sustaining the business model indeed.

事實上，我們為我們的模型感到自豪，該模型在光刻強度增加的情況下仍然能夠生存下來，而 EUV 將成為這種光刻強度的關鍵因素，因此無論宏觀經濟形勢如何，我們都擁有潛在的豐富機會。EUV 將會再次強調這一點。作為這一表現的衡量標準，您可以看到 2011 年； 2011年從四月開始就已經震動了。眾所周知，自4月以來，市場開始關注半導體的總需求。但對我們來說，2011 年將是創紀錄的一年，其次，甚至年初我們的預期也並未動搖。我們能夠達到這個數字。因此，無論如何，這種光刻強度（聽不清楚）確實維持著商業模式。

I would like to add to that, Mehdi, that you might remember what I said earlier, that for let's say leading-edge double patterning NXTs which are now coming at 200 wafers per hour leadtime, so are six to maximum eight months but I would say six, while EUV 3300 has significantly higher leadtime, it could be a year longer. So that you could say if you look at the order time, when do they need to place the orders, and when would they need to get the shipment of the tool, then the order placement could be about the same time while the shipment of that R&D tool if it relates to EUV could be about 12 months later. So yes, that could indeed happen.

我想補充一點，Mehdi，你可能還記得我之前說過的話，比如說，對於目前以每小時 200 片晶圓的速度交付的尖端雙重圖案 NXT，交付週期是六到最多八個月，但我想說是六個月，而 EUV 3300 的交付週期明顯更高，可能會長一年。因此，如果您查看訂單時間，您可以說他們什麼時候需要下訂單，什麼時候需要收到工具的貨物，那麼訂單的下達時間可能大致相同，而如果該研發工具與 EUV 相關，則其發貨時間可能在大約 12 個月後。是的，這確實有可能發生。

Great, very helpful. Thank you.

非常好，很有幫助。謝謝。

Satya Kumar.

薩蒂亞·庫馬爾。

Credit Suisse. Eric, I was wondering if the order levels stay at sort of the EUR600-ish million level in Q4. Do you have a sense as to what type of [bit] supply growth we can see from the memory industry for DRAM and NAND in 2012?

瑞士信貸。艾瑞克，我想知道第四季的訂單水準是否保持在 6 億歐元左右的水準。您是否知道 2012 年內存產業 DRAM 和 NAND 的供應量將出現何種成長？

What sort of a split do you mean? (multiple speakers)

你指的是哪一種分裂？（多位發言者）

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Based on the 600, let's say the EUR600 million because that's what he -- EUR600 million plus EUR150 million, that's what you mean is the EUR750 million maintenance level, and say what would that support? That's what you're asking. Is that correct?

基於 600，假設是 6 億歐元，因為這就是他所說的 - 6 億歐元加上 1.5 億歐元，這就是 7.5 億歐元的維持水平，那麼這將支持什麼？這就是你要問的。對嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

You mean in terms of mix of DRAMs, NAND and logic?

您的意思是 DRAM、NAND 和邏輯的混合嗎？

(multiple speakers)

（多位發言者）

What kind of [bit] supply group can DRAM and NAND (multiple speakers)

什麼樣的[bit]供應組可以同時供應DRAM和NAND（多位發言者）

sorry, Peter, sorry I could not -- I cannot answer that question now. You're saying so if we go into a low [only] technology transition activity, which is the famous EUR750 million or whatever by quarter, what is the [bit] level by segment? I unfortunately don't remember this, and if nobody on the phone does on our side, we should have that discussion with you as a follow-up.

抱歉，彼得，抱歉我現在無法回答這個問題。您的意思是，如果我們進入低水平（僅）技術轉型活動，即著名的每季度 7.5 億歐元或其他數字，那麼按細分市場劃分的水平是多少？不幸的是我不記得了，如果我們這邊的電話裡沒有人記得，我們​​應該和你進行後續討論。

Satya, we do have that information but I don't want to start guessing or give you the wrong number. Just made a note to ask to call the Investor Relations people, Craig and Frankie. They will have that data.

Satya，我們確實有這些訊息，但我不想猜測或給你錯誤的數字。剛剛記下來要打電話給投資者關係人員 Craig 和 Frankie 。他們將擁有這些數據。

Okay. A couple of follow-ups. One, on the Foundry side, what type of utilization rates are you seeing on your immersion machines in the Foundry segment?

好的。一些後續行動。首先，在鑄造廠方面，您在鑄造廠領域看到的浸入式機器的使用率是多少？

We've seen, in the Foundry segment, a reduction in the third quarter, and we've seen the pick-up in the last month, but all this still at fairly good level. Remember that a fairly good level in Foundry means it's still low because you have such a difficulty to process those new nodes that the machines are running but of course the numbers of wafers and dies that gets out of it is not huge, again, due to these complexities. So you're talking about a sort of down I would say starting from June, July, August, and then up September and until now from numbers which are good but which shows that technologically-wise, these processes are difficult.

我們看到，在鑄造領域，第三季度有所下降，而上個月有所回升，但總體仍處於相當好的水平。請記住，Foundry 中相當好的水平意味著它仍然很低，因為處理機器正在運行的那些新節點非常困難，但當然，由於這些複雜性，從中產生的晶圓和晶片的數量並不是很大。所以你說的是一種下降趨勢，我想說從六月、七月、八月開始，然後九月上升，直到現在，數字都很好，但這也顯示從技術角度來看，這些過程很困難。

That's very useful. Lastly, on the OpEx front, the fact you've not really changed your OpEx in Q4 on a couple of quarters of back-to-back low orders, is that a sign that perhaps you're seeing a pipeline of orders that might improve a bit more meaningfully in the first half of next year? If the orders stay at the current second-half levels and you feel that might be the case into Q1, would you make a decision to perhaps throttle back on the OpEx at some point in Q4?

這非常有用。最後，在營運支出方面，事實上，在連續幾季訂單量較低的情況下，你們在第四季並沒有真正改變營運支出，這是否表明你們看到的訂單量可能會在明年上半年出現更有意義的改善？如果訂單保持在當前下半年的水平，並且您認為第一季的情況可能如此，您是否會決定在第四季度的某個時候減少營運支出？

Let me answer that question. I think OpEx is not -- there's never a proxy for us on where we think the business is going. It's just the other way around. When we see the business is going in a certain direction, we will adjust the OpEx. Like Eric said earlier, we have a flexibility to take close to 20% of our total cost base, which includes fixed cost down, in three to six months. So indeed, we have still ample time to review what's going to happen next year in order to be able to bring the cost levels down. So OpEx is not a proxy. I would say orders and business expectations are.

讓我來回答這個問題。我認為營運支出不是——從來沒有一個指標可以告訴我們業務的發展方向。事實恰恰相反。當我們看到業務朝著某個方向發展時，我們就會調整營運支出。正如 Eric 之前所說，我們可以靈活地在三到六個月內降低近 20% 的總成本基礎（包括固定成本）。因此，我們確實仍有充足的時間來審查明年將要發生的事情，以便能夠降低成本水準。因此 OpEx 不是代理。我想說的是訂單和業務預期。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jagadish Iyer.

賈加迪什·艾耶爾。

Piper Jaffray. Two questions. First, Peter, where do you think backlog could potentially trough please?

派珀·傑夫雷。兩個問題。首先，彼得，您認為積壓訂單可能在何處達到最低點？

Well, the issue with backlog is that's from where we currently are is the difference between what we will book and what we will ship. Since it is difficult for us to give you an exact statement of what we will book, it's difficult to give you an exact statement of where we think the backlog will go. So it's a kind of function of the fact that on one of the two elements of that equation we don't know. So, that's I think a very difficult question to answer.

嗯，積壓的問題在於我們目前的預訂量和出貨量之間存在差異。由於我們很難向您準確說明我們將預訂什麼，因此很難向您準確說明我們認為積壓訂單將會去往何處。因此，它是方程式中兩個元素之一我們不知道的事實的函數。所以，我認為這是一個很難回答的問題。

Second one, on the Foundry side, Eric, you had mentioned that it is kind of a wild card for 2012. So what needs to happen for a resurgence in orders? Is it going to be demand or is it the real that these foundries have to overcome before they start to place orders? Thank you.

第二，在 Foundry 方面，Eric，您曾提到這對 2012 年來說是一個不確定因素。那麼，要怎麼做才能讓訂單量回升呢？這些代工廠在開始下訂單之前必須克服的是需求問題還是現實問題？謝謝。

I think it is the demand on new nodes. The foundries are now seeing a new business model, I will say, which is this transition, the node to node, which would happen not every two years but every 18 months. There are some planning that says that the ramp itself within this period, when the node happens, [it] happens earlier, 18 months, but in addition to volume seems to be going faster into this business.

我認為這是對新節點的需求。我想說的是，代工廠現在看到了一種新的商業模式，即這種轉變，即節點到節點的轉變，這種轉變不是每兩年發生一次，而是每 18 個月發生一次。有一些規劃表明，在這個時期內，當節點發生時，成長本身就會提前發生，大概 18 個月，但除了數量之外，這個產業似乎發展得更快。

This model is in fact what we all await to be proven. If indeed the customers see an application push to do this transition faster and go and ramp immediately in production, then we are going to see a sustained logic business and foundry business. If it is sustained in 2012, it's in fact indeed a very good year because, as I said at the beginning, DRAM and NAND will probably be higher in 2012. Therefore, logic, if it would be sustained, would make 2012 a good year. But again, this is a theoretical question. We have to wait to see whether the demand factor for these new nodes justifies that.

這個模型其實正是我們都期待被證實的。如果客戶確實看到應用程式推動這一轉變，並立即投入生產，那麼我們將看到持續的邏輯業務和代工業務。如果這種趨勢在 2012 年持續下去，那麼這確實是一個非常好的年份，因為正如我在一開始所說的那樣，DRAM 和 NAND 在 2012 年的價格可能會更高。因此，如果邏輯能夠持續下去，那麼 2012 年將會是個好年。但這又是一個理論問題。我們必須等待，看看這些新節點的需求因素是否證明這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ben Pang.

彭本。

Caris & Company. Thank you for taking my question. First, on 2011, your forecasts have held up pretty well versus the rest of the industry. Do you think there's any overcapacity of lithography tools in the DRAM space right now?

卡里斯公司。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，對於 2011 年，您的預測與業內其他公司的預測相比相當準確。您認為目前 DRAM 領域的光刻工具是否有產能過剩的情況？

In the DRAMs space, not at all. In (inaudible) I should say -- I should be cautious. Not in the critical layer arena because, as we said, the ramping of the new nodes in DRAM are complicated. They require these new machines. So we are shipping these new machines. We know there's no other machines in the install base that are capable of doing this. So therefore, on this critical layers, we have no concern at all that there is excess capacity.

在 DRAM 領域，情況完全不是這樣。在（聽不清楚）我應該說－我應該謹慎。不在關鍵層領域，因為正如我們所說，DRAM 中新節點的提升非常複雜。他們需要這些新機器。所以我們正在運送這些新機器。我們知道安裝基座中沒有其他機器能夠做到這一點。因此，在這個關鍵層面上，我們根本不擔心產能過剩。

Of course, you could always have excess capacity on some non-critical layers on the install base, but I would say this is a bit irrelevant to sales. These are old machinery and things, although I even think the old machineries are going to -- are transferred to NAND.

當然，在安裝基礎上的一些非關鍵層上你總是可以擁有過剩的容量，但我想說這與銷售有點無關。這些都是舊機器和東西，儘管我什至認為舊機器將會轉移到 NAND。

My follow-up in regards to the EUV program and the roadmap for throughput that you commented on, are those going to be step [for audio] completely step functions, in other words 60 wafers and then the next release goes directly to the 125?

關於您所評論的 EUV 計劃和吞吐量路線圖，我的後續問題是，這些是否會完全按照步驟（對於音頻）實現，換句話說，60 個晶圓，然後下一個版本直接達到 125 個？

No, not at all, not at all. In fact, this is one of the confusion that we'll all have, you will all have in the press and in different communications. There are so many factors that yield throughput that you can, for a period of time, have on one experiment achieving 60 wafer per hour, but in another you're not. You're [at half this]. In another experiment you are a bit better. So you're going to have a, I will say a continuous gradual set of positive data coming in towards the 60, and in fact the real number (inaudible) I want to give you the truth, I think the calculated number is 69 wafers per hour, and then we'll go from there. So you will see that every quarter. I think we will be able to report a gradual improvement towards those targets and then beyond.

不，一點也不，一點也不。事實上，這是我們所有人都會遇到的困惑之一，你們所有人都會在媒體和不同的交流中遇到這種困惑。影響吞吐量的因素有很多，在一段時間內，你可以在一個實驗中實現每小時 60 個晶圓的吞吐量，但在另一個實驗中卻做不到。你已經[達到這個的一半]。在另一項實驗中，你表現得更好一些。所以你會得到一組連續逐漸接近 60 的正數據，事實上真實的數字（聽不清楚）我想告訴你真相，我認為計算出的數字是每小時 69 個晶圓，然後我們從那裡開始。所以你每季都會看到這種情況。我認為我們將能夠報告這些目標的逐步改善，並超越這些目標。

That's very helpful. Thank you very much.

這非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德什潘德。

Just one quick question on your customers, Peter. Just talking about your customers, how do you see them reacting if things maybe get even worse in the next couple of months? Have they talked to you on what they think in terms of 2008 and now? Are they saying that things are -- well, you highlighted the financial difference between the situation in 2008, but I just want to understand how your customers are talking -- in terms of what they're talking to you at this point?

彼得，我只想問一個簡單的關於你的客戶的問題。只談論您的客戶，如果未來幾個月情況變得更糟，您認為他們會如何反應？他們是否和您談過他們對 2008 年和現在的看法？他們是不是說，情況是這樣的——好吧，你強調了 2008 年情況之間的財務差異，但我只是想了解你的客戶是如何談論的——就他們現在跟你談論的內容而言？

I think I can repeat what Eric said earlier. The situation between now and 2008 and '09 is different. It's quite different. In 2008 and '09, we were all surprised, taken by surprise, and there was an absolute freeze for at least six months where doing nothing was the best Option. That's absolutely not the case today. Customers have very clear cost reduction roadmaps and their technology. Node transitions are also very clear, actually quite strong in every segment. So they talk to us about the latter. They talk about what they need to do to get to the next nodes, to get the costs down. They seem all to be quite firm on that particular transition that -- of course, against the background that we are currently not in a situation whereby we have to doubt the viability of the whole financial industry like we did in the first few months of 2009 despite the fact that clearly we have issues. That bears on I think the overall uncertainty. But no, I don't think there is -- that customers act the same. As a matter of fact, they show a high level of confidence in what they absolutely need to do.

我想我可以重複 Eric 之前說的話。現在的情況與2008年和2009年的情況有所不同。這完全不同。2008 年和 2009 年，我們都感到驚訝，措手不及，至少有六個月的時間處於絕對凍結狀態，什麼都不做是最好的選擇。今天的情況絕對不是這樣。客戶有非常明確的成本削減路線圖及其技術。節點轉換也非常清晰，實際上在每個部分都非常強大。所以他們和我們談論後​​者。他們討論了需要做什麼才能進入下一個節點並降低成本。他們似乎都對這一特定的轉變持相當堅定的態度——當然，這是因為我們目前還沒有陷入像 2009 年頭幾個月那樣懷疑整個金融業生存能力的境地，儘管我們顯然存在一些問題。我認為這與整體的不確定性有關。但不，我不認為有──顧客的行為是一樣的。事實上，他們對於自己絕對需要做的事情表現出了高度的信心。

And then a follow-up, Eric, in terms of -- there have been some investors worried about the Foundry spending, well Foundry spending in 2011 is the highest it has been for ten years. Is it because there is a change in capital intensity in these new generation processes 28 nanometers, or is there a real underlying -- you've said previously that there's no underlying issue. So are you suggesting clear changes in capital intensity in the business?

然後是後續問題，埃里克，就一些投資者擔心代工支出而言，2011 年的代工支出是十年來最高的。是因為這些新一代 28 奈米製程的資本密集度發生了變化，還是存在真正的潛在問題——您之前說過，沒有潛在問題。那麼，您是否建議企業資本密集度有明顯變化？

Yes, absolutely, absolutely. So first of all, there was a sort of catch-up. Clearly the Foundry business has underinvested for a period of time, so 2011 includes a bit of catch-up.

是的，絕對，絕對。因此首先，存在著一種追趕的現象。顯然，鑄造業務在一段時間內投資不足，因此 2011 年需要進行一些追趕。

But secondly, as I said, there's the Logic business seems to have accelerated from a two-year transition to an 18-month transition, so you get that to be done.

但其次，正如我所說，Logic 業務似乎已經從兩年的過渡期加速到 18 個月的過渡期，所以你必須完成它。

The third aspect is that you are now getting to nodes, which have a significant amount of critical layer increase. So for instance, when you are in the DRAM business, the next node would force you to do, say, two to three layers which are very, very complicated, which are we call the [huge] critical. These are the layers which drive in fact the buy of new machines.

第三個方面是，您現在正在進入節點，這些節點具有大量的關鍵層增加。舉例來說，當你從事 DRAM 業務時，下一個節點會迫使你做兩到三層，這些層非常非常複雜，我們稱之為「巨大」關鍵。這些層面實際上推動了新機器的購買。

While in the Logic arena, when you go to 22 nanometer from 22 days, 28, so you go to 22, 20, 14, then you have the numbers of critical layers, you're talking about 10, 15. So you're five times bigger [than the] memories. So these transitions are hugely (inaudible) incentive. And that helps us consider that the Foundry could in fact become foundries and Logic in general would become a continuous engine in the next few years. But again, there will be digestion as we go on some periods, six months, one year, indeed, but the secular growth on Foundry is probably significant.

而在邏輯領域，當你從 22 天、28 天發展到 22 奈米時，你會發展到 22、20、14，那麼關鍵層的數量就是 10、15。所以你比記憶大五倍。因此，這些轉變具有巨大的（聽不清楚）激勵作用。這有助於我們認為 Foundry 實際上可以成為代工廠，而 Logic 總體上將在未來幾年內成為一個連續的引擎。但是，隨著時間的推移，確實會有一些消化，六個月、一年，但 Foundry 的長期增長可能是顯著的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, we are coming very near our end time here for the call, but I'd like to suggest we squeeze in one more question. Operator -- if you didn't get a chance to ask a question on the call, please feel free to give Investor Relations department, who's available for a lot of the rest of the day here call, and we'll attempt to get back to you as soon as is physically possible. So operator, what that, may we have the last question please?

女士們、先生們，我們的電話會議即將結束，但我建議我們再擠出時間問一個問題。接線員—如果您在電話中沒有機會提問，請隨時致電投資者關係部門，該部門在當天剩餘的大部分時間都有空接聽您的電話，我們會盡快回電給您。接線員，那我們可以問最後一個問題嗎？

Didier Scemama.

迪迪埃·斯凱瑪瑪。

It's RBS. Many thanks for taking my question actually. Just coming back to EUV bookings (technical difficulty) hello? Peter, can you be maybe a bit more specific? Is it possible to tell us whether you're going to book that in Q1 or in Q2? I've got a very quick follow-up.

這是蘇格蘭皇家銀行。非常感謝您回答我的問題。剛剛回到 EUV 預訂（技術難題）你好？彼得，你能說得更具體一點嗎？您能否告訴我們您打算在第一季還是第二季預訂？我有一個非常快速的後續行動。

Well, I have a very quick answer. No. We cannot be very specific. But it will be in that time frame. And your follow-up was?

嗯，我有一個非常快速的答案。不。我們無法說得非常具體。但它將在那個時間範圍內。您的後續行動是什麼？

My follow-up was to the extent that you're going to start to see critical layers moving to EUV in addition to double patterning and immersion, and that's more and more of the end markets adopting those technologies, would it be reasonable to assume that your longer-term market share could actually go even slightly above 80%?

我的後續問題是，如果您開始看到除了雙重圖案和浸沒式曝光之外的關鍵層也轉向 EUV，並且越來越多的終端市場採用這些技術，那麼是否可以合理地假設您的長期市場份額實際上可以略高於 80％？

We think that we came from a natural 70% market share, when I tried to explain what would be proper economic decisions at the customers between critical and noncritical. We think that now 80%, or 75%, 80% could become the next natural in what you just said. The terms that a company like ours, if we are ahead of our competition, would benefit of critical layers, but the critical layers, as I explained to Sandeep, represent a bigger share so indeed, so we go from 70% to 80%-ish, but I would not venture that this would go above 80%. I think we mathematically -- so a natural market share between 75% and 80% is probably correct at this point.

當我試圖解釋對於關鍵客戶和非關鍵客戶來說什麼是適當的經濟決策時，我們認為我們自然而然地擁有了 70% 的市場份額。我們認為現在80%或75%、80%可能成為您剛才所說的下一個自然數字。就我們這樣的公司而言，如果我們領先於競爭對手，那麼關鍵層就會受益，但正如我向 Sandeep 解釋的那樣，關鍵層佔據了更大的份額，因此我們的份額從 70% 上升到了 80% 左右，但我不敢說這個比例會超過 80%。我認為從數學上來說——75% 到 80% 之間的自然市場份額目前可能是正確的。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

So now, on behalf of ASML's Board of Management, I'd like to thank you all for joining in the call today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you very much.

現在，我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會感謝大家今天參加電話會議。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。非常感謝。

Of course. Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude the ASML 2011 third-quarter results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

當然。女士們、先生們，ASML 2011 年第三季業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。謝謝。