艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2011 fourth quarter and annual results conference call, on January 18, 2012.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2012 年 1 月 18 日 ASML 2011 年第四季和年度業績電話會議。

Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions).

在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。ASML介紹完後，會有提問的機會。（操作員指令）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給先生。克雷格·德揚。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Peter. And good afternoon, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations here at ASML. I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and webcast.

謝謝你，彼得。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網路廣播。

As the operator mentioned, the subject of today's call is ASML's 2011 fourth quarter and annual results. Co-hosting today's call here from our headquarters in Veldhoven, the Netherlands is Mr. Eric Meurice, ASML's CEO; and Mr. Peter Wennink, ASML's CFO.

正如接線員所提到的，今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2011年第四季和年度業績。今天在我們位於荷蘭費爾德霍芬的總部共同主持電話會議的是先生。ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice；和先生ASML 財務長 Peter Wennink。

At this time, I'd like to draw your attention to the safe harbor statement, contained today's in press release, and in our fourth quarter and annual results presentations, both of which can be found on our website at asml.com. This safe harbor statement will apply to this call, and to all associated presentation materials. The length of the call will be 60 minutes.

此時，我想提請您注意今天的新聞稿以及我們的第四季度和年度業績報告中包含的安全港聲明，這兩項聲明都可以在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到。本安全港聲明將適用於本次電話會議以及所有相關的演示資料。通話時間為 60 分鐘。

And now, I'd like to turn it over to Eric, for a brief introduction.

現在，我想請 Eric 做一個簡單的介紹。

Yes. Thank you, Craig. Good afternoon, good morning. Thank you for attending our fourth quarter, and annual results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Peter and I, as usual, would like to give you an overview on the fourth quarter, and provide a view forward, as much as we can.

是的。謝謝你，克雷格。下午好，早安。感謝您參加我們的第四季和年度業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，彼得和我像往常一樣，想盡可能地向大家概述一下第四季的情況，並展望未來。

As usual, Peter will start with a review of the financial performance; and I'd comment on the short-term outlook. We'll complete the introduction with some commentary on our immersion and EUV product strategy, and the status. So please, Peter.

和往常一樣，Peter 首先會回顧一下財務表現；我對短期前景發表評論。我們將透過對我們的沉浸式和 EUV 產品策略和現狀的一些評論來完成介紹。所以請你，彼得。

Thank you, Eric. And welcome to everyone. Firstly, I would like to take this moment to recognize our record sales and profit year, in 2011, where we posted close to EUR5.7 billion of sales; a net income of 26% of that sales number. Clearly, a very good year.

謝謝你，埃里克。歡迎大家。首先，我想藉此機會讚揚一下我們創紀錄的銷售和利潤年份——2011 年，我們的銷售額接近 57 億歐元；淨收入佔銷售額的26%。顯然，這是非常好的一年。

Our fourth quarter sales came in at EUR1.2 billion. While the third quarter sales were evenly distributed across industry sectors, the fourth quarter sales were skewed significantly towards the foundry sector, with 55%; with the balance spread rather equally across the memory sectors, NAND 22%, and DRAM 19%.

我們第四季的銷售額達到12億歐元。雖然第三季的銷售額在各產業部門平均分佈，但第四季的銷售額明顯偏向代工部門，佔 55%；其餘部分在記憶體領域分佈較為均勻，NAND 佔 22%，DRAM 佔 19%。

Although units shipped favored ArF immersion, non-critical KrF unit shipments were still significant, which indicates capacity additions in some industry segments.

儘管出貨量主要集中在ArF浸沒式，但非關鍵的KrF出貨量仍然很大，這表明某些產業領域的產能有所增加。

We recognized 23 immersion systems in the quarter, leading to a total of 101 immersion systems sold throughout the year; of which, 78 were our most advanced TWINSCAN XT 1950 immersion tools.

本季我們確認了 23 套沉浸式系統，全年共售出 101 套沉浸式系統；其中 78 個是我們最先進的 TWINSCAN XT 1950 浸入式工具。

The average selling price of all systems shipped in the fourth quarter was EUR24.2 million; which is an increase of EUR1 million per unit versus the third quarter.

第四季出貨的所有系統的平均售價為2,420萬歐元；與第三季相比，每單位增加了100萬歐元。

Service and field option sales for the quarter came in at a record EUR218 million, but that was driven by a significant adoption of performance enhancing field options. We also recognized the sale of one EUV system, for a total amount of EUR39 million.

本季服務和現場選項銷售額達到創紀錄的 2.18 億歐元，但這是由於大量採用提高效能的現場選項。我們也確認了一套 EUV 系統的銷售，總金額為 3,900 萬歐元。

So, at the end of the year, earnings per share was -- for 2011, EUR3.45; which represents a 47% increases, the EUR2.35 in 2010.

因此，截至年底，2011 年每股收益為 3.45 歐元；較 2010 年的 2.35 歐元上漲了 47%。

Updating our previously announced share buyback program, as of December 31, 2011, ASML had repurchased 25.7 million shares, for a total amount of EUR700 million, giving an average buyback price of EUR27. Of the shares repurchased, 13.2 million have already been cancelled in 2011; with the remainder to be cancelled in 2012. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had EUR2.7 billion in cash.

更新我們先前宣布的股票回購計劃，截至 2011 年 12 月 31 日，ASML 已回購 2,570 萬股，總金額為 7 億歐元，平均回購價格為 27 歐元。在回購的股份中，2011年已註銷1,320萬股；其餘將於2012年取消。第四季末，我們擁有27億歐元現金。

Regarding further cash returns, it's our intention pending shareholder approval to increase our annual dividend by 15%, to EUR0.46 per share; and to increase the size of the current buyback program to EUR1,130 million, to take advantage of the maximum amounts, which are available for dividend withholding tax exempt share buybacks in 2012.

關於進一步的現金回報，我們打算在獲得股東批准後將年度股息提高 15%，至每股 0.46 歐元；並將當前回購計劃的規模增加至 11.3 億歐元，以利用 2012 年可用於免除股息預扣稅的股票回購的最大金額。

This increase, together with the shares we will buy back, to cover our employee share plans, allows us to buy back a total amount of EUR500 million; which, in addition to the dividend announcement, adds up to EUR700 million of potential returns to our shareholders. On top of this amount, the Company still has a capacity of more than EUR1 billion, with which we can do a synthetic share buyback, similar in style to the one we did in 2007.

此次增發加上我們將回購的股票，用於支付員工持股計劃，使我們能夠回購總計 5 億歐元的股票；除股息公告外，我們還將為股東帶來 7 億歐元的潛在回報。除此之外，公司仍有超過 10 億歐元的資金能力，我們可以利用這些資金進行合成股票回購，其方式與我們在 2007 年所做的類似。

Q4 net bookings came in at 37 systems, valued at EUR710 million. Booked ASPs declined from EUR22 million in Q3, to EUR19 million in Q4. But that was due to a product mix shift.

第四季淨預訂量達 37 個系統，價值 7.1 億歐元。預訂平均銷售價格從第三季的 2,200 萬歐元下降至第四季的 1,900 萬歐元。但這是由於產品結構的變化所造成的。

Our fourth quarter bookings profile changed significantly, with Foundry increasing to 71% of total; followed by NAND Flash at 23%, and IDMs at 15%. DRAM actually had negative bookings, as we de-booked two systems for EUR64 million in total. One system was cancelled, and one was re-booked to NAND.

我們第四季的預訂情況發生了顯著變化，Foundry 的預訂量增加到總量的 71%；其次是NAND Flash，佔23%，IDM佔15%。DRAM 的預訂量實際上是負數，因為我們取消了兩個系統的總預訂量，價值為 6,400 萬歐元。一個系統被取消，一個系統被重新預訂到NAND。

Our order backlog, exiting the year, was EUR1.7 billion; totaling 71 systems, with an average selling price of EUR24.4 million. The backlog profile, at year end, changed significantly, as the combined memory continued on a downward trend, to only 27% of the backlog, versus 41% at the end of the third quarter.

截至年底，我們的訂單積壓量為17億歐元；總計71個系統，平均售價為2,440萬歐元。年底的積壓情況發生了顯著變化，綜合記憶體繼續呈下降趨勢，僅佔積壓訂單的 27%，而第三季末為 41%。

As to the outlook, we feel comfortable guiding our sales level, as far as we have reasonable visibility. That is why at this time last year, we guided with a 12-month view. Currently, that view is six months. And, based on this, we expect the sales level for the first half of 2012 to be EUR2.4 billion. Together with our year-end backlog, we expect orders in the first half to adequately cover this sales expectation.

至於前景，只要我們有合理的預見性，我們就可以輕鬆地指導我們的銷售水平。這就是為什麼去年這個時候，我們以 12 個月的眼光來做指導。目前，該期限為六個月。基於此，我們預計2012年上半年的銷售額將達到24億歐元。加上我們年底的積壓訂單，我們預計上半年的訂單將足以滿足這項銷售預期。

System demand is currently strongly driven by logic manufacturers, needed to shrink beyond the 30-nanometer node, for enhanced product performance; while building critical mass capacity, at those nodes, in a growing competitive environment.

目前，系統需求主要由邏輯製造商推動，需要縮小到 30 奈米節點以下，以增強產品性能；同時在日益激烈的競爭環境中，在這些節點上建立臨界規模容量。

As to the NAND segment, the forecasted bit growth for 2012 fuels our expectation that the NAND sector will be able to continue their aggressive shrink, while adding required waiver capacity during 2012.

至於 NAND 領域，2012 年預測的位元成長增強了我們的預期，即 NAND 領域將能夠繼續大幅縮減，同時在 2012 年增加所需的豁免產能。

The DRAM market is currently experiencing a very difficult environment, as evidenced by the share of DRAM customers in our backlog. However, if the current forecasted demand for bit growth in 2013 comes through, lithography demand will very likely follow; which could, potentially, happen towards the end of this year, in preparation for that demand.

DRAM 市場目前正經歷著非常困難的環境，從我們積壓訂單中 DRAM 客戶的份額就可以看出。然而，如果目前預測的 2013 年位元成長需求能夠實現，那麼光刻需求很可能會隨之成長；為了滿足這一需求，這可能會在今年年底發生。

Sales for the first quarter are expected to come in at around EUR1.2 billion. The gross margin these revenues will have will be about 43%. R&D expenses in Q1 will moderate a bit, to EUR145 million, as we drive greater efficiency; while giving complete and continued support to our dual product leadership strategy.

預計第一季的銷售額約為12億歐元。這些收入的毛利率約為43%。隨著我們提高效率，第一季的研發費用將略有下降，至 1.45 億歐元；同時對我們的雙產品領導策略給予全面、持續的支援。

Efficiency gains will also decrease SG&A to about 45 -- sorry, EUR54 million in the quarter.

效率的提高也將使銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 降低至約 45——抱歉，本季為 5,400 萬歐元。

And with that, I would like to turn it back over to you, Eric.

現在，我想把發言權交還給你，艾瑞克。

Thank you, Peter. As Peter mentioned, 2011 was a record year for ASML. And 2012 opens with a fairly solid first half. This success confirms the robustness of the fundamentals of the Lithography business, and the value of technology leadership, to sustain this robustness.

謝謝你，彼得。正如彼得所提到的，2011 年是 ASML 創紀錄的一年。2012 年上半年表現相當穩健。這項成功證實了光刻業務基本面的穩健性，以及維持這種穩健性所需的技術領導力的價值。

As articulated during our last quarter results call, two technologies will be enabling the next generation of semiconductor technologies; multiple patterning, using immersion, on one hand; and EUV, on the other. Both technologies will cohabit for a while, as the transition to EUV will be gradual.

正如我們上個季度的業績電話會議中所闡述的那樣，兩項技術將推動下一代半導體技術的發展；一方面，採用浸沒法進行多重圖案化；另一方面，是 EUV。由於向 EUV 的過渡將是漸進的，因此兩種技術將共存一段時間。

At some point, which, last call, we described as being beyond 15-nanometer, to 20-nanometer in the DRAM business; beyond 10-nanonmeter to 15-nanometer in NAND and Logic. And so at this point the immersion technologies will have a hard stock for use on critical layers. Until then, multiple patterning and EUV will co-exist indeed, with a mix depending on every critical layer's complexity and the respective manufacturing cost.

在某個時候，我們上次描述 DRAM 業務將超越 15 奈米，達到 20 奈米； NAND 和邏輯領域超越 10 奈米至 15 奈米。因此，此時浸入式技術將具有可用於關鍵層的硬質材料。在此之前，多重圖案化和 EUV 確實會共存，混合方式取決於每個關鍵層的複雜性和各自的製造成本。

Most customers are, therefore, proceeding with parallel process developments, preparing some layers to be either processed with immersion technology or with EUV. Thus having the security of known technology as a backup, and having full use of their install base while preserving the enabling capability and cost effectiveness of EUV.

因此，大多數客戶都在進行平行製程開發，準備使用浸沒式技術或 EUV 進行處理的某些層。因此，以已知技術的安全性作為備份，並充分利用其安裝基礎，同時保留 EUV 的支援能力和成本效益。

ASML will support this gradual EUV ramp with an aggressive dual-product strategy, continuous innovation on our immersion platform concurrent with the development of the EUV platform itself.

ASML 將透過積極的雙產品策略來支持 EUV 的逐步發展，在開發 EUV 平臺本身的同時，不斷創新我們的浸入式平台。

Regarding immersion, we have completed the qualification of our second generation NXT which will set a new throughput and overlay benchmark of, respectively, 200 wafers per hour plus and 4 nanometer on product overlay.

關於浸沒式工藝，我們已經完成了第二代 NXT 的認證，它將設定新的吞吐量和覆蓋基準，分別為每小時 200 片晶圓以上和 4 奈米產品覆蓋。

We are also strengthening our suite of holistic lithography software and hardware products to enable process windows enlargement, process drift management and machine matching. We are planning the introduction of our third generation NXT at the end of 2012 with the next level of performance, throughput and overlay.

我們也正在加強我們的整體光刻軟體和硬體產品套件，以實現製程視窗擴大、製程漂移管理和機器匹配。我們計劃在 2012 年底推出第三代 NXT，其效能、吞吐量和覆蓋範圍將達到新的水平。

Regarding EUV, as you know we've shipped six EUV pre-production NXE3100 systems. And integration has begun on the 3300 production too, [slated] for delivery starting in H2, 2012. We can claim today two significant accomplishments in EUV.

關於 EUV，如您所知，我們已經交付了六台 EUV 預生產 NXE3100 系統。3300 型產品的整合也已開始，預計 2012 年下半年開始交付。今天我們可以宣佈在 EUV 領域取得了兩項重大成就。

First, we have stabilized the throughput of the current NXE3100s in the field to about five to seven wafers per hour, thus enabling the customer recipe development in infrastructure qualification, particularly in mask making. More than 5,000 wafers have now been processed, and customers have imaged down to 16 nanometer with a single exposure capability, accumulating therefore valuable experience in a number of cycles of learning.

首先，我們已將目前現場 NXE3100 的吞吐量穩定在每小時約五到七片晶圓，從而使客戶能夠在基礎設施認證（特別是在掩模製作方面）方面進行配方開發。目前已處理超過 5,000 片晶圓，客戶已能夠透過單次曝光能力將影像精細至 16 奈米，因此在多次學習中累積了寶貴的經驗。

The second achievement in [this space] we have made progress on the different work packages, advancing the development of the source, and have been able to address and fix the number of technology limiters. We confirm our roadmap therefore to achieve proof of stable throughput of 60 wafers per hour in the field in the summer of 2012, and 125 wafers per hour, which is our target, one year later.

[這一領域的]第二個成就是我們在不同的工作包上取得了進展，推進了原始程式碼的開發，並且能夠解決和修復許多技術限制因素。因此，我們確認了我們的路線圖，在 2012 年夏季在現場實現每小時 60 片晶圓的穩定產量證明，並在一年後實現每小時 125 片晶圓的穩定產量證明，這是我們的目標。

We have started the process of order taking of the [match] -- next batch of system, a process that we hope to close by June. The systems of this next new batch of orders will add to the 11 systems that we have already booked.

我們已經開始下一批系統的訂單處理流程，我們希望在六月完成這項流程。下一批新訂單的系統將會加入我們已經預訂的 11 個系統中。

As also mentioned a number of times, ASML revenues opportunity in selling EUV technology, or the alternative multiple patterning immersion technology, or a mixture of both technologies for different layers, as we mentioned, will be similar during the transition period. And, therefore, we put equal emphasis on both technologies, allowing our customers to choose the most appropriate technology for the respective lithography layers.

正如我們多次提到的那樣，在過渡期內，ASML 銷售 EUV 技術、替代性多重圖案浸沒技術或兩種不同層技術的混合技術的收入機會將是相似的。因此，我們同樣重視這兩種技術，以便我們的客戶可以為各自的光刻層選擇最合適的技術。

In summary, we are encouraged by the insight that we have gained on the first half of 2012, and allow us to sustain a large quarterly R&D investment, which in turn will support our secular growth well into the future.

總而言之，我們對 2012 年上半年所獲得的洞察力感到鼓舞，並使我們能夠維持較大的季度研發投資，這反過來將支持我們未來的長期成長。

With this, Peter and I will be pleased to take your questions.

彼得和我很樂意回答你們的問題。

Thank you, Eric and Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. But beforehand I'd like to ask you to kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow up if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, if we could have your instructions and then the first question please.

謝謝你，埃里克和彼得。女士們，先生們，接線生將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程。但在此之前，我希望您只問一個問題，如有必要，請進行簡短的後續追蹤。這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。接線員，請問您是否需要指示，然後問第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions). Gunnar Plagge, Citigroup.

（操作員指令）。花旗集團的 Gunnar Plagge。

I was just wondering whether you guys could give us a little bit more color on 2012. Fundamental demand seems pretty strong; 12 months ago, although I admit in a different macro context, we were talking about EUR5.5 billion sales maybe this year. We have very aggressive order behavior, and we have EUV shipments kicking in, in the second half, so I was just wondering to what extent could H2 be flat or maybe even slight up on H1, if you could comment on that?

我只是想知道你們能否給我們講講 2012 年的一些情況。基本需求似乎相當強勁； 12 個月前，儘管我承認在不同的宏觀背景下，我們談論的今年的銷售額可能達到 55 億歐元。我們的訂單行為非常積極，而且下半年我們的 EUV 出貨量也將開始增加，所以我想知道下半年的出貨量在多大程度上會與上半年持平，甚至可能略有上升，您能對此發表評論嗎？

I think there is, of course, a reason why we stick to the six months, because we have visibility to the six months. And the reason is that -- basically what we do here, we have a top-down simulation based on forecasted growth numbers from some of the analysts -- companies like iSuppli -- and then we do a simulation which is top down.

我認為，我們堅持六個月是有原因的，因為我們對這六個月有清晰的認識。原因是——基本上我們在這裡所做的就是根據一些分析師（如 iSuppli 等公司）預測的成長數字進行自上而下的模擬，然後我們再進行自上而下的模擬。

And we corroborate that with the bottom-up that customers are giving us. And when that is within a reasonable of each other then we feel comfortable enough to go out and to give you guidance. This is what we did last year, so that -- actually customers gave us 12 months so we could corroborate this, and gave you 12 months.

我們透過客戶提供的自下而上的幫助證實了這一點。當彼此之間的距離在合理範圍內時，我們就會感到足夠舒適，可以出去為您提供指導。這就是我們去年所做的，因此 - 實際上客戶給了我們 12 個月的時間來證實這一點，並給了你 12 個月的時間。

Now what we are doing, of course, the market is a bit more uncertain; I talk about the macroeconomics, so customers give us six months so we can corroborate six months. And this is what we do, so not more color in that sense.

現在我們所做的，當然市場有點不確定；我談論宏觀經濟學，所以客戶給我們六個月的時間，以便我們可以證實六個月的時間。這就是我們所做的，所以從這個意義上來說，顏色並不多。

The only thing is, and that is what I repeat what I said in my introductory statements, is that when we look at the order backlog it is more skewed towards Logic, which actually means that Logic will be an important element for us to ship in the first six months; and NAND still for 2012 shows good bit growth numbers which actually needs to be supported. We know [the] shrink roadmaps. And you could say the [outlier] is a bit DRAM market today, because it's not good.

唯一的問題是，這就是我在介紹性陳述中重複所說的內容，當我們查看訂單積壓時，它更偏向於邏輯，這實際上意味著邏輯將成為我們在前六個月發貨的重要元素； 2012 年 NAND 仍顯示出良好的位增長數字，這實際上需要支持。我們知道收縮路線圖。你可以說今天的[異常值]有點像 DRAM 市場，因為它不太好。

But, clearly, we have then had 2011 and '12 as not very good DRAM years, and what we are currently seeing in terms of expectation of bit growth in 2013 for DRAM is actually significantly up. That needs to be supported, so I would say that is an opportunity. I think that is -- but that opportunity is clearly not for the first six months. I think that is kind of the color which I would like to give you, and stay with that, because we simply don't know more.

但顯然，2011 年和 2012 年並不是 DRAM 表現良好的一年，而我們目前對 2013 年 DRAM 位數成長的預期實際上大幅上升。這需要得到支持，所以我認為這是一個機會。我認為是這樣的——但這個機會顯然不存在於前六個月。我想這就是我想給你的顏色，並堅持這一點，因為我們根本不知道更多。

Okay, thanks. And maybe as a follow-up, I think your main competitor recently extended their modern wafer stage handling system from cutting edge to capacity tools. And I was just wondering to what extent you would expect an impact on your capacity tool opportunities going forward, and to what extent this reflects also a more mature handling system from your competitor compared maybe to your TWINSCAN system. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。也許作為後續問題，我認為您的主要競爭對手最近將其現代晶圓台處理系統從尖端工具擴展到容量工具。我只是想知道，您認為這會對您未來的產能工具機會產生多大程度的影響，以及這在多大程度上反映了您的競爭對手比您的 TWINSCAN 系統更成熟的處理系統。謝謝。

Yes, I understand that our competitor has made improvements. In fact one of the competitors is working on I-Line area and the other competitor is looking on trying to improve a bit on the ArF dry area, and I wonder if they will try to use some of that into the KrF arena.

是的，我知道我們的競爭對手已經做出了改進。事實上，其中一位競爭對手正在 I-Line 區域工作，而另一位競爭對手正在嘗試在 ArF 乾燥區域上進行一些改進，我想知道他們是否會嘗試將其中的一些改進應用到 KrF 領域。

But we still believe that our products have a number of advantages still on paper. And in reality the issue of what we call a machine-matching become even much more of a problem. So if you have a leading technology machine in your factory, and then you have to process multiple layers, and you use a KrF, or an ArF immersion, or an ArF dry, you would prefer these machines to be matching your state of the art machinery. And it is usually better, or easier, to use it -- to use the same supplier to do so. So, indeed, we are not worried.

但我們仍然相信，我們的產品在紙面上仍有許多優勢。而實際上，我們所說的機器匹配問題變得更加嚴重。因此，如果您的工廠擁有領先技術的機器，然後您必須處理多層，並且您使用 KrF、ArF 浸沒或 ArF 乾燥，那麼您希望這些機器與您最先進的機器相匹配。通常，使用同一個供應商會更好或更容易。所以，我們確實不擔心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Simon Schafer, Goldman Sachs & Co.

西蒙‧謝弗（Simon Schafer），高盛公司

I was wondering, Eric, on your (inaudible) as it were, in terms of supply and demand in the foundry industry. I guess the premise of the question is, it seems like both the Intel and the ARM eco-systems are spending aggressively at the same time and pace. So I just wondered what you felt may be the risks and balances are surrounding foundry spend as you go into the second half, just because there seems to be a lot of spending going on at the same time from both eco-systems.

艾瑞克，我想知道你對鑄造業供需的看法（聽不清楚）。我想這個問題的前提是，看起來英特爾和 ARM 生態系統都在同時以相同的速度積極投入資金。所以我只是想知道，隨著進入下半年，您認為代工支出面臨的風險和平衡是什麼，因為兩個生態系統似乎同時在進行大量支出。

At this moment, the foundry huge investment that we are seeing is mainly due to growth in 30 nanometer -- build up faster than expected of 28 nanometer, and preparation of the R&D of 20 nanometer.

目前我們看到的晶圓代工巨額投資主要源自於30奈米的成長－28奈米的建造速度比預期的快，以及20奈米研發的準備。

On the preparation of R&D for 20 nanometer; this is irrelevant -- your question is irrelevant in that case. There is a critical mass of investment that they have to do no matter what so that they are present in the business.

正在進行20奈米的研發準備；這無關緊要——在這種情況下，你的問題無關緊要。無論如何，他們都必須進行大量的投資，才能在業務中立足。

In the 28 nanometer, what's happening at this moment is even if you would consider an aggressive build, this aggressive build is still very small to a full [load]. It's just a ramp, so it's good for us; in fact, it sustains nicely H1, but the numbers are nowhere near huge.

在 28 奈米中，此刻發生的情況是，即使你考慮進行積極的構建，這種積極的構建對於滿載來說仍然非常小。這只是一個斜坡而已，對我們來說還好；事實上，它很好地維持了 H1，但數字遠不是巨大的。

To the fight of -- at this moment would be on capacity; do they build too much capacity on the 30 nanometer? And I would say at this point on that one, Intel is not present in that segment; Intel plans to be present in the future segment. So in others terms your question would be probably valid at the next big batch of orders we may receive from Logic. At this point there could be a question of a, quote on quote, double-booking.

此時此刻的戰鬥力已經到了極限；他們在 30 奈米上建構的產能是否太多了？我想說的是，目前英特爾還沒有進入這個領域；英特爾計劃參與未來的細分市場。因此，從其他角度來看，您的問題可能對我們可能從 Logic 收到的下一批大訂單有效。此時可能會出現重複預訂的問題。

Got it; that's clear, thank you. And my second question would be, just in terms of this potential for reverse stock splits that you've outlined. In the past I think the parameter that you've always put forward is to talk about some sort of desirable net cash level I guess, including some of the prepayments and so on for the EUV ramp. I just wondered what that range was, so just to get -- we get a sense as to when you may, in reality, start getting more aggressive in a potential redistribution to shareholders. Thank you.

知道了;很清楚，謝謝。我的第二個問題是，就您所概述的反向股票分割的可能性而言。我認為，過去您一直提出的參數是談論某種理想的淨現金水平，包括 EUV 坡道的一些預付款等。我只是想知道這個範圍是多少，這樣我們就可以了解什麼時候實際上可以開始更積極地向股東進行潛在的再分配。謝謝。

Yes, you are correct. We need a certain level of minimum cash. We used to -- a couple of years ago, we used to say it was EUR1 billion. Now we're a bigger company so that is, indeed, a bit higher.

是的，你說得對。我們需要一定程度的最低現金。幾年前，我們曾經說過這個數字是 10 億歐元。現在我們的公司規模更大了，所以這個數字確實有點高。

But where we are today, the EUR2.7 billion -- and actually, also having used part of those prepayments, so that prepayment balance is actually going down; and the fact that, clearly, we will be profitable -- very nicely profitable, means that we will generate also cash throughout 2012. That means that, like I said earlier, under the maximum we can distribute under the withholding tax rules, there's about EUR500 million; EUR200 million dividend, so EUR700 million we can easily distribute.

但我們今天的狀況是，27 億歐元——實際上，也使用了部分預付款，因此預付款餘額實際上正在下降；顯然，我們將會盈利——盈利非常可觀，這意味著我們在 2012 年全年也將產生現金。這意味著，就像我之前說的，根據預扣稅規則我們可以分配的最高金額約為 5 億歐元； 2 億歐元的股息，因此我們可以輕鬆分配 7 億歐元。

On top of that, we have that capability -- starting from this EUR2.7 billion the fact that we will generate cash, that the balance of the prepayments of the EUV is shrinking, because we're using that money to build up working capital, means that we will have, indeed, enough cash opportunity taking into account a minimum cash level, which will be above the EUR1 billion level. But it will be still lower than EUR2 billion.

最重要的是，我們有這樣的能力——從這 27 億歐元開始，我們將產生現金，EUV 預付款的餘額正在減少，因為我們正在使用這筆錢來建立營運資金，這意味著我們確實將有足夠的現金機會考慮到最低現金水平，這將高於 10 億歐元的水平。但仍低於20億歐元。

So there will be enough capability if you do all your math, to say that there is still an opportunity for us to do something substantial.

因此，如果你做好所有的計算，就會有足夠的能力說我們仍然有機會做一些實質的事情。

Okay, great, Peter; thanks so much.

好的，太好了，彼得；非常感謝。

Gareth Jenkins.

加雷斯·詹金斯。

It's UBS. Just a quick one on, you've previously talked about very strong layer growth in 2011. I just wonder what you saw the layer growth at and what you think that would be in 2012.

是瑞銀。我簡單問一下，您之前曾談到 2011 年蛋雞產量成長非常強勁。我只是想知道您看到了層數的增長，以及您認為 2012 年的增長會是多少。

And I guess the follow-up is a related one; just the percentage of ordering that you see in Q4 and Q1 that's related to shrink versus capacity. Thank you.

我想後續也是相關的；您在第四季和第一季看到的訂單百分比與產能縮減有關。謝謝。

We would have -- on the former, I cannot really be too quantitative, but we should follow up on the question. But qualitatively, NAND will see, 2011/2012, no layer growth. It's stable on that sense. So we are shipping and we expect to ship more in NAND, because the business is booming, but not because the technology is overcomplicated.

我們會——關於前者，我實際上不能太量化，但我們應該跟進這個問題。但從品質來看，2011/2012 年 NAND 將不會出現層數成長。從這個意義上來說它是穩定的。因此，我們正在出貨，我們預計將出貨更多 NAND，因為業務正在蓬勃發展，但不是因為技術過於複雜。

In the Logic arena, however, and in the DRAM arena, this still continues with one or two layers more on average, if I'm not mistaken, which would make it 15-ish-% -- no, sorry, it's more than that. In DRAM that's correct, so 10%/15% more layers. And in Logic, the numbers of critical layers are much larger, and I would prefer not to quote you myself, because I may be wrong, so we will follow that on you.

然而，在邏輯領域和 DRAM 領域，如果我沒有記錯的話，這種情況仍然會繼續，平均多一層或兩層，這將達到 15% 左右——不，抱歉，不止這些。在 DRAM 中這是正確的，因此層數增加了 10%/15%。在邏輯中，關鍵層的數量要大得多，我不想親自引用你的話，因為我可能是錯的，所以我們會關注你。

So the big layer driver in 2012 is, indeed, Logic, followed closely by DRAM and NAND not so much, which is good, by the way. That means in 2013, we expect the next NAND problem, if you know what I mean, an opportunity; that the critical layers in NAND will become a problem, requires more lithography.

因此，2012 年最大的驅動因素確實是邏輯，緊隨其後的是 DRAM，而 NAND 則稍遜一籌，順便說一句，這是件好事。這意味著在 2013 年，我們預計會出現下一個 NAND 問題，如果你明白我的意思，那就是一個機會； NAND 中的關鍵層將成為一個問題，需要更多的光刻技術。

Yes, there was another question of you asked, Gareth, you asked the question of the percentage ordering shrink versus capacity.

是的，加雷斯，您還問了另一個問題，即訂購量縮減百分比與產能之間的關係。

At this moment, so -- that's usually a complicated question, because we have -- you've seen, indeed, some capacity due to -- because we are shipping KrF; you've seen this in the order book. So there is indeed capacity but, surprisingly, this capacity is for the big node, for the new node.

目前，這通常是一個複雜的問題，因為我們有——你確實看到了，由於我們正在運送 KrF，所以我們有一些產能；您已經在訂單簿中看到過這一點。所以確實有容量，但令人驚訝的是，這個容量是針對大節點、針對新節點的。

So we've got -- two years ago, when we had the capacity surge, if you remember, we had a good news for six months/nine months about 65 nanometers. That was a huge capacity business due to China at the time, if you remember. This is not happening today.

所以我們有——兩年前，當我們的產能激增時，如果你還記得的話，我們在六個月/九個月內就獲得了有關 65 奈米的好消息。如果你還記得的話，那在當時對中國來說是一個擁有巨大產能的事業。今天這種情況不會發生。

In fact, if you want to see in a crystal ball, I think this will be an engine of growth for us in 2013 or 2014. So we're going to have, in 2013/2014 a number of, I would say, call it, traditional designs like automotive designs. We will shrink from 90 nanometers to something like 40 nanometers or something.

事實上，如果你想用水晶球來預測的話，我認為這將成為我們 2013 年或 2014 年的成長引擎。因此，在 2013/2014 年，我們將會推出一系列我稱之為傳統設計的設計，例如汽車設計。我們將從 90 奈米縮小到 40 奈米左右。

And there is a question in the industry whether this 90 nanometers -- or 65 nanometers/90 nanometers will shrink to 30 nanometers/40 nanometers or something like this. That is, in other terms, a way of saying in Logic, there will be a wave of capacity entries into -- by transfer of the traditional IDMs, like ST and XP, Freescales, Infineon, etc., into the Foundry. So you will have that. This is not happening today. This will be happening in the future and that's good news. This is an engine of growth of the future.

業界存在一個疑問，這個 90 奈米——或者 65 奈米/90 奈米是否會縮小到 30 奈米/40 奈米或類似的尺寸。換句話說，從邏輯上講，將會出現一波產能進入浪潮——傳統IDM，如ST和XP、飛思卡爾、英飛凌等，將轉移到晶圓代工廠。所以你會擁有它。今天這種情況不會發生。這將在未來發生，這是個好消息。這是未來成長的引擎。

The capacity that you have today is because, for the first time in our history, the customers, in particular Foundry, are building up their early node, the new node faster than usual. I don't remember the exact historical curve, but when you ramp at 28 nanometers, you would expect to ramp say 2% of your capacity for one year. And you go 5%, 5%, then you go 10%, then you go 15%, 20%; so it takes forever to get to this.

您今天擁有的產能是因為，在我們的歷史上，客戶，特別是 Foundry，第一次比平常更快地建立他們的早期節點和新節點。我不記得確切的歷史曲線，但當你以 28 奈米的速度提升時，你預計一年內你的產能將增加 2%。然後你上升到 5%、5%，然後你上升到 10%、然後你上升到 15%、20%；所以要花很長時間才能達到這個目的。

At this moment, and this was the question related to the competition between the architectures, this new node, 28 nanometers, which [would be fundamental], is being built at the same time, with more capacity, than I would say we would have expected from a historical standard.

此時，這是與架構之間的競爭相關的問題，這個新的節點，28 奈米，（將是根本性的），正在同時構建，其容量比我們根據歷史標準所預期的要大。

So we were concerned about that. But when you ask the question to our customers, you have a list of design wins and a list of hungry customers in the areas of portables in general; smartphones, tablets, etc., and all these devices, which create a need to ramp these early nodes faster than ever in history.

所以我們對此感到擔憂。但當你向我們的客戶詢問這個問題時，你會得到一份設計獲勝者的名單，以及一份便攜式設備領域渴望獲得幫助的客戶名單；智慧型手機、平板電腦等，所有這些設備都需要比歷史上任何時候都更快地提升這些早期節點。

And, indeed, there is a question about whether that's too much. But as I say, it's so much at the start that it's not yet going to be a problem.

確實，存在一個問題，即這是否太多了。但正如我所說，一開始情況就如此，所以還不會成為問題。

Very helpful, thank you, Eric.

非常有幫助，謝謝你，艾瑞克。

Andrew Gardiner.

安德魯加德納。

(Technical difficulty) development process on EUV, you've highlighted, briefly again, the process you've made in terms of imaging and with the light source. I'm just wondering how the conversations are going with your customers and how you see them planning for the use of EUV over the next few years in terms of the critical layers that they will deploy that with.

（技術難度）EUV 的開發過程，您再次簡要地強調了您在成像和光源方面所做的過程。我只是想知道您與客戶的對話進度如何，以及您如何看待他們在未來幾年內計劃在關鍵層上使用 EUV。

And are you still expecting that orders should start to increase over the next few quarters for 2013 as a result of that?

您是否仍預期 2013 年接下來幾季的訂單量會因此開始增加？

Okay, yes. The whole EUV question, numbers of facts; nobody would expect EUV to be in huge volume in production before 2014. That is not changed. I think -- I hope I have mentioned it before. So we would build EUV into our structure between 2012/2013 by shipping, as we said, about -- could be one a month or something of this nature, but these are not really production; [it's production is] 2014.

好的，是的。整個 EUV 問題，大量事實；沒有人會想到 EUV 會在 2014 年之前實現大規模生產。這一點沒有改變。我想——我希望我之前提到過它。因此，我們將在 2012/2013 年之間透過出貨將 EUV 納入我們的結構中，就像我們所說的那樣，大約每月出貨一台，或類似這樣的速度，但這些都不是真正的生產； [其生產日期] 為 2014 年。

So the real issue for us is to achieve the performance necessary for 2014, which we said is going to between 60 wafer powers or 125 wafer powers. If we do 60 wafer powers, we have not so many EUV and a lot of immersion. And if we have 125 wafer power, we'll have a lot of EUV and less immersion. So that's basically the status. We are well within this timeframe.

因此，我們面臨的真正問題是實現 2014 年所需的性能，也就是達到 60 個晶圓功率或 125 個晶圓功率之間。如果我們採用 60 個晶圓的功率，我們就不需要那麼多 EUV 和大量的浸沒。如果我們擁有 125 個晶圓功率，我們就會擁有大量的 EUV 和更少的浸沒式微影技術。這就是基本現狀。我們完全符合這個時間框架。

The problem, however, and the reason why our customers are not happy with us and we are not happy with ourselves, is we still have not enough data to prove this.

然而，問題在於，我們的客戶對我們不滿意，我們對自己也不滿意的原因是，我們仍然沒有足夠的數據來證明這一點。

As much as we're happy to have identified a lot of, I would say, sub-projects to make [effort], we haven't been able yet to integrate all those sub-projects together so that you can immediately see the 60 wafer power. We are able to show 105 watts. We are able to show debris control. We are able to show cleaning up capability of the collectors, etc. But we have not yet enough experience; we haven't put everything together in the same machine to be sure. So we still have an uncertainty point.

儘管我們很高興已經確定了許多可以做出努力的子項目，但我們還無法將所有這些子項目整合在一起，以便您可以立即看到 60 晶圓的功率。我們能夠顯示 105 瓦。我們能夠展示碎片控制。我們能夠展示收集器的清理能力等。但我們還沒有足夠的經驗；可以肯定的是，我們還沒有將所有東西都放在同一台機器中。所以我們仍然存在一個不確定點。

So we still think -- we are basically having a bunch of unhappy customers saying, guys, it is now time that you give us certainty. We think that we can give them certainty. It was my point at the beginning, in the summer, with proof of the pudding, proof of the 60 wafer power, which would allow them then to say, obviously, it's a go and then they would accelerate their own recipe development and they will get us under pressure for delivery.

所以我們仍然認為——我們基本上有一群不滿意的客戶說，夥計們，現在是時候給我們確定性了。我們認為我們可以給予他們確定性。這是我一開始就提出的觀點，在夏天，透過對布丁的驗證，對 60 片晶圓功率的驗證，他們可以說，顯然，這是可行的，然後他們會加速自己的配方開發，並給我們施加交付壓力。

So from now on until the summer, there is going to be question mark as to the credibility of our development. And for us, the complication here is because we can't integrate all the equipment at the same time. We have to go through hugely technical discussions with our customers to explain the progress of every one of the legs until we converge some time in the summer. So that's the situation.

因此從現在到夏天，我們發展的可信度都會受到質疑。對我們來說，這裡的複雜之處在於我們無法同時整合所有設備。我們必須與客戶進行大量的技術討論，解釋每個階段的進展情況，直到夏天的某個時候達成一致。情況就是這樣。

However, the progress is visible. It's tangible, enough that, in fact, they continue having pressure -- significant pressure. Tangible, first, because the customers, although unhappy with our 5 to 7 wafer per hour or so, they are able to do cycle of learning. And that is fundamental.

然而，進步是顯而易見的。事實上，他們繼續承受著壓力——巨大的壓力。有形的，第一，因為客戶雖然對我們每小時5到7個晶圓左右的產量不滿意，但他們能夠做到循環學習。這是最根本的。

So if you now talk to them and discuss about their mask shop, their activities to build up some wafers, the running in the process, issues that you'll definitely be -- always see in process development, and the magnificent photographs that you can get at 60 nanometers, which is also true, you get some excitement and you get some actions. And you get some development on the six, or, in fact, the five machines; the sixth one is just, I think, ramping the first wafers.

因此，如果您現在與他們交談並討論他們的掩模車間、他們生產晶圓的活動、工藝流程中的運行、您肯定會在工藝開發中看到的問題以及您可以在 60 奈米下獲得的壯麗照片（這也是事實），您會感到興奮並採取一些行動。你在六台機器上，或者實際上是五台機器上取得了一些進展；我認為第六個只是在增加第一批晶圓的產量。

So that's positive; that puts credibility into the project. And that makes the customers develop.

所以這是積極的；這使得該項目具有可信度。這使得客戶得到發展。

The second part of the equation is that we have enough facts in our joint work with source providers that the customers are ready to potentially put more orders.

等式的第二部分是，我們在與來源供應商的合作中掌握了足夠的事實，表明客戶已準備好下更多訂單。

And this is what I announced in the discussion at the beginning; let's say, we're starting now to put the official letters out that say dear customers, this is the facts. We are now ready to take more orders. And we are offering [early] phases, which is three or six months or so. And we offer a phase today, where we say, dear customers, we'd like to get now the next commitment. And that will be commitment for delivery with a lead time of about two years. So anything we take now will be delivered at early 2014.

這是我在一開始的討論中宣布的；我們現在開始發出正式信函，告知親愛的顧客，這是事實。我們現在準備好接受更多訂單。我們提供[早期]階段，大約三個月或六個月左右。今天我們提供一個階段，我們說，親愛的客戶，我們現在想獲得下一個承諾。這將是交付承諾，交付週期約為兩年。因此，我們現在採取的任何措施都將於 2014 年初交付。

Difficult to give you colors at this moment; the numbers of orders will depend, in some ways, with the level of data that we are going to provide the market. I can tell you happily that today I think I've got an order in the pocket. But we have refused to take the paperwork, because we want also ourselves to be sure. So we will wait.

此刻很難給你顏色；在某種程度上，訂單數量取決於我們向市場提供的數據水平。我可以高興地告訴你，今天我想我已經拿到訂單了。但我們拒絕接受這些文書工作，因為我們自己也想確保萬無一失。所以我們會等待。

But we do have, indeed, a huge interest, which also confirms what I said before is whatever you -- we all say and be concerned about, there is a hard stop to immersion in due time. So we are condemned to success at some point. And, indeed, we can survive a period of time with a double approach, with multiple patterning, etc. But the whole industry knows that we cannot go and continue [sleeping] the project.

但我們確實有著巨大的興趣，這也證實了我之前所說的，無論你說什麼，我們都關心什麼，沉浸式學習在適當的時候都會很難停止。因此，我們注定在某個時刻成功。事實上，我們可以採用雙重方法、多種模式等來度過一段時間。但整個產業都知道，我們不能讓這個計畫繼續下去。

And as I said, at this point, we feel still comfortable that by the summer, we'll be able to say, unfortunately, we now have to ramp with the hard work that it takes to ramp a new technology.

正如我所說的，目前，我們仍然感到很舒服，到夏天我們就可以說，不幸的是，我們現在必須付出艱苦的努力來推廣一項新技術。

Thanks very much for the additional detail.

非常感謝您提供的額外詳細資訊。

Mr. Gardiner, we could not hear your Company name but it's Barclays Capital isn't it?

先生。加德納，我們聽不到您的公司名稱，但它是巴克萊資本，對嗎？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Okay, thank you very much. Krish Sankar.

好的，非常感謝。克里什·桑卡爾。

It's Bank of America Merrill Lynch. I had a near-term and a longer-term question.

它是美國銀行美林證券。我有一個近期問題和一個長期問題。

In the near term, it seems like you're guiding flat sales into Q2. And I'm just trying to think, how do we think about OpEx? Is it fair to assume SG&A goes down in Q2, because you don't have the [buffer churning] impact? And how do we think about R&D into Q2? And I have a follow-up.

從短期來看，您似乎預計第二季的銷售額將持平。我只是在想，我們如何看待營運支出？由於沒有受到[緩衝攪拌]的影響，是否可以合理地假設第二季的銷售、一般及行政費用會下降？我們如何看待第二季的研發？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, the near term is, yes, I think, the R&D is about flat to what we guide in Q1. And the SG&A is on a downward trend.

是的，是的，我認為，短期內研發支出與我們第一季的預期持平。銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 呈下降趨勢。

Got it, thank you. And then question for Eric, longer term, from an industry perspective, do you think we need to get EUV right before we move into 450 millimeter wafer size? Or do you think those two can be done in parallel? I'm just talking from an industry perspective.

知道了，謝謝。然後問 Eric 一個問題，從長期來看，從行業角度來看，您認為在進入 450 毫米晶圓尺寸之前我們需要獲得 EUV 嗎？或者您認為這兩者可以同時進行嗎？我只是從行業角度談談。

I think the industry, everybody would tell you, and if not, get them drunk so that they will tell you, obviously, everybody expects EUV to be right before 450 millimeter gets in. You are not going to call any customers or anything, but it seems now to be the obvious truth and for two reasons.

我認為，業界每個人都會告訴你，如果沒有，那就把他們灌醉，這樣他們就會告訴你，顯然，每個人都預計 EUV 會在 450 毫米進入之前出現。您不會打電話給任何客戶或做任何事情，但現在這似乎是顯而易見的事實，原因有二。

One, 450 millimeter does not offer you the cost savings, nor the performance capability of the chip, nor the power reduction requirements of EUV. So 450 millimeter is palliative to the need to manage a cost structure of some sort. So in other terms, 450 millimeter helps a company who says I've got a big fab and I'd like to use the square meters more effectively, to be honest. And, of course, there is a cost of square meters and the cost of infrastructure in general.

首先，450 毫米既無法為您節省成本，也無法提高晶片的效能，也無法滿足 EUV 的功率降低需求。因此，450 毫米可以緩解管理某種成本結構的需要。換句話說，450 毫米可以幫助那些說「我有一個大晶圓廠，我想更有效地利用每平方公尺」的公司。當然，還有每平方公尺的成本和一般基礎設施的成本。

But this is nothing to do with the 30% to 50% shrink factors of chips, which then allow you performance, cost and power. So there is no debate at all in the industry that EUV is a fundamental, much more than 450 is.

但這與晶片 30% 到 50% 的縮小因素無關，後者可以提高效能、成本和功耗。因此，業界完全沒有爭議，EUV 是基礎，比 450 更重要。

The second thing that is of use to everybody -- as far as EUV is a priority obviously, the second thing is that you cannot do a transitions of the level of 450, which requires a complete change of the whole insides of the fab, with every equipment supplier aligned, in two years. You can dream this, but it's usually impossible. So what you do is you create noise and activities, and media, blah blah, (technical difficulty). So you make noise etc. to make the 450 process being developed.

第二件對每個人都有用的事情——就 EUV 而言顯然是優先事項，第二件事是，你無法完成 450 級別的轉換，這需要在兩年內徹底改變整個晶圓廠的內部，並讓每個設備供應商保持一致。你可以夢想這一點，但這通常是不可能的。所以你所做的就是製造噪音、活動、媒體等等（技術難題）。所以你就製造噪音等等。使 450 製程得以開發。

So there is going to be activities for people to do some 450 prototyping etc. But, in any event, such a process takes time. And if even EUV would not exist, the 450 best insertion in would be 2016/2018 anyway.

因此，將會有活動供人們進行約 450 個原型設計等。但無論如何，這個過程需要時間。而且，即使 EUV 也不存在，那麼 450 個最佳插入時間無論如何都會是 2016/2018 年。

So we've made that clear to all of our customers, which we said look this is the obvious, what do you think? And I understand that we heard from everybody that the obvious is, in fact, proper. We do EUV, this is a fundamental. We will make it happen by 2013/2014. Then, after that, we have the whole industry to plan to a 450 transition. And a 450 transition will be done in a cost effective way, which takes some times. So there is not going to be 450 before 2016/2018.

因此，我們向所有客戶明確了這一點，我們說，看，這是顯而易見的，您覺得怎麼樣？我知道我們從每個人那裡都聽說了，顯而易見的事實是正確的。我們做EUV，這是基礎。我們將在 2013/2014 年實現這一目標。然後，在那之後，我們要讓整個產業規劃向450的轉型。並且 450 轉換將以經濟有效的方式完成，這需要一些時間。因此，2016/2018 年之前不會有 450 個。

Thanks, Eric.

謝謝，埃里克。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德什潘德。

JPMorgan. Just a quick question on what you're hearing from your customers, particularly from the Chief Executive Officers of your customers; that are they more comfortable, at this point, despite the uncertain economic environment to be investing in this? That this is the start of a new cycle and not just a short-term blip in terms of orders? And I have one follow-up.

摩根大通。只是想問一個簡單的問題，關於您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼，特別是從客戶的執行長那裡聽到了什麼；儘管經濟環境不確定，他們現在是否更願意投資於此？這是一個新周期的開始，而不僅僅是訂單方面的短期波動？我還有一個後續問題。

At that level I would -- if I stigmatize a bit, there is no issues with the economic situation that are big enough to change the strategic investment plans of those large accounts.

在那個層面上，如果我稍微批評一下的話，那就是經濟狀況沒有任何問題大到足以改變那些大帳戶的策略投資計畫。

Indeed, in Logic, as we said at the beginning, you're not impacted by the fear factor of the euro or whatever. In the NAND arena, you are clearly not considering this as an issue, because you just want to have the capacity to do the new products like the SSDs and the [SIM] PCs etc., which are going to cover for your demand, your investments. So that's not a problem.

事實上，在邏輯上，正如我們一開始所說的，你不會受到歐元恐懼因素或其他因素的影響。在 NAND 領域，你顯然不會將此視為問題，因為你只是希望有能力生產新產品，如 SSD 和 [SIM] PC 等，這些產品將滿足你的需求和投資。所以這不是問題。

In the DRAM business what you have is a recovery from the bad news of last year. If you remember, last year, the DRAM vendors were basically telling us, and every one of us, that they were reasonable people, and they would build up just a minimum capacity. And that's what they did at the beginning of 2011.

在 DRAM 業務方面，今年已經從去年的壞消息中復甦。如果你還記得的話，去年，DRAM 供應商基本上告訴我們，以及我們每個人，他們是通情達理的人，他們只會建立最低限度的產能。這就是他們在 2011 年初所做的。

The bad news, however, tablet came in for the DRAM people. So the tablet, basically, cannibalized the PC business somehow. So the capacity installed in the DRAM business became too big for the product capability for the -- they were basically planned for a higher level of PC.

然而，平板電腦給 DRAM 行業帶來了壞消息。因此，平板電腦基本上以某種方式蠶食了個人電腦業務。因此，DRAM 業務的安裝容量對於產品能力來說太大了——它們基本上是為更高級別的 PC 而設計的。

So today the DRAM people are waiting for the PC curve to get back, in order to recover the, I would say, trend, which makes then the installed based in DRAM cost effective, or proper. And this is what Peter was saying by saying, well, we don't think that is happening in the first six months. And there is a high chance that it does happen in the second half. And, at that point, we would expect the DRAM industry to kick in.

因此，如今 DRAM 人員正在等待 PC 曲線回升，以便恢復趨勢，從而使基於 DRAM 的安裝具有成本效益或適當性。彼得說的是，我們認為在前六個月不會發生這種情況。而這種情況在下半年發生的可能性很高。到那時，我們預計 DRAM 產業將會開始發展。

But, indeed, the numbers of PCs being sold, which is the only, in fact, piece of macroeconomic that I probably brought to the call, is an uncertainty. And, therefore, we do not want to call H2 on that uncertainty.

但事實上，個人電腦的銷售數量（這可能是我在電話會議上提出的唯一宏觀經濟數據）是一個不確定性。因此，我們不想因為這種不確定性而稱之為 H2。

Thanks, Eric, one follow-up question on, in terms of what you've said in the past that the next peak in your revenues will be around EUR7 billion. You've not put this on paper, but this is something we have talked about. Do you think this is a 2014 phenomenon, when you start shipping EUV in clear volume, or is this 2015, 2016?

謝謝，埃里克，還有一個後續問題，就您過去所說的而言，您的下一個收入高峰將達到 70 億歐元左右。你沒有把這個寫在紙上，但這是我們討論過的事情。您認為這是 2014 年的現象嗎（當時你們開始大量出貨 EUV），還是 2015 年、2016 年的現象？

It's difficult too, because I promised the market to come back with the famous target size of the business. If you remember in 2010 I said EUR5 billion in 2015. And we did -- sorry, 2005 for 2010. I said EUR5 billion for 2010, so we are at that level.

這也很困難，因為我曾經向市場承諾過，會帶著著名的業務目標規模回歸。如果你還記得的話，2010 年我曾說過 2015 年要達到 50 億歐元。我們確實做到了——抱歉，2005 年是 2010 年。我說 2010 年是 50 億歐元，所以我們現在處於這個水平。

So now I'm ready to set up a number and you did quote something interesting on the phone. But I would prefer not to mention it at this very moment. I am waiting clarification of this EUV curve versus double patterning, because, for me, at this moment, for two years or so, there is no difference between double patterning and EUV in terms of economics. The revenue will be about the same. But beyond that, EUV has a huge opportunity of growth.

所以現在我準備好設定一個號碼，而你確實在電話裡引用了一些有趣的東西。但我現在不想提及此事。我正在等待對這條 EUV 曲線與雙重圖案化的澄清，因為對我來說，目前，大約兩年內，雙重圖案化和 EUV 在經濟方面沒有區別。收入大致相同。但除此之外，EUV 還有巨大的成長機會。

And I want to clarify that one with us achieving some technical results before I come to the market and say I am going to make another visionary statement. The size of the Company will get to the next level. So give me another week or two -- sorry, month or two, maybe until June or something hopefully where you would ask the same question.

我想澄清的是，在我進入市場之前，我們已經取得了一些技術成果，我將發表另一個富有遠見的聲明。公司規模將邁上新階梯。所以再給我一兩個星期——抱歉，一兩個月，也許到六月左右，希望那時你會問同樣的問題。

Thanks a lot, Eric.

非常感謝，埃里克。

Satya Kumar.

薩蒂亞·庫馬爾。

Credit Suisse. Just wanted to ask a quick question on inventories, I notice that inventory days and receivable days have increased. I was wondering if you could add some color around that, and how you plan to [move] the 3300, and manage your working capital around that.

瑞士信貸。只是想問一個關於庫存的簡單問題，我注意到庫存天數和應收帳款天數有所增加。我想知道您是否可以對此進行一些說明，以及您計劃如何[移動] 3300，並圍繞此管理您的營運資金。

The receivable days, there's nothing going on there, only that the shipments were skewed most towards the quarter end. So that they were simply not in there, that's a due day payment yet. So that's no issue.

應收帳款天數沒有任何變化，只是出貨量在季末出現最大偏差。所以他們根本就不在那裡，那是到期付款。所以這不是問題。

On the inventories we are building up 3300 inventories, you are right. And that will only lead to sales in the course of this year. So we will have to have, over the next couple of quarters, a build-up in inventory which is going to be relatively short term, because, like we say, we're going to start shipping those tools in the second half of the year. But the work in process which is basically related to those sales, we will see this quarter and next quarter in the inventory balance. But, like I said, it's going to be short term, so within 12 months.

關於庫存，我們正在建立 3300 個庫存，您說得對。這只會帶來今年的銷售。因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們必須增加庫存，但這只是相對短期內的事情，因為就像我們說的，我們將在今年下半年開始運送這些工具。但對於與這些銷售基本相關的在製品，我們將在本季和下季的庫存餘額中看到。但是，就像我說的，這將是短期的，所以在 12 個月內。

All the other inventory elements actually like inventory days, on our regular inventory, on work in process, on NXT, and our immersion tools there's nothing really special there. It is really 3300 build-up.

所有其他庫存要素實際上就像庫存天數、我們的常規庫存、在製品、NXT 和我們的沉浸式工具一樣，並沒有什麼特別之處。這確實是 3300 的累積。

Okay, and then a question on the 3300 shipment profile. I think, in the past, you might have said that your capability is to ship about one a month in the back half of this year and then you shipped [five of the 10 and back] -- 10 orders that you have this year, and maybe the remainder next year. And I think, Eric, you mentioned that new orders will only be shipped in 2014. So are you expecting -- how should we think about the 3300 unit shipments this year and next year?

好的，然後是關於 3300 裝運概況的一個問題。我認為，在過去，您可能會說，您的能力是在今年下半年每月發貨大約一輛，然後您會發貨[10輛中的5輛，然後回來] - 今年的10輛訂單，也許明年剩下的訂單。艾瑞克，我想你提到新訂單要到 2014 年才會出貨。那麼您預期——我們該如何看待今年和明年的 3300 台出貨量？

You are a tough negotiator. So, on paper, it is too early time. But what I said is correct. One a month-ish is the capacity. We have 11 orders. We will start shipping in the summer. And if we get the orders, etc., you could see one a month.

你是一位強硬的談判者。因此，從理論上來說，現在還為時過早。但我說的是正確的。容量大約是每月一次。我們有 11 個訂單。我們將在夏季開始發貨。如果我們收到訂單等，您每個月就能看到一份。

But, on the other hand, being hugely cautious, these are highly complicated machines. There is a difference between capacity and whether you can use the capacity and have no failures. So if you do an Excel spreadsheet on 2013 you may not want to put 12. You may want to put a factor of 12, so eight/10, whatever.

但另一方面，由於極為謹慎，這些都是高度複雜的機器。容量和您是否可以使用容量並且不會發生故障之間是有區別的。因此，如果您製作 2013 年的 Excel 電子表格，您可能不想輸入 12。您可能希望將因子設為 12，即 8/10，無論什麼值。

By the way, I don't know at this moment. We are --

順便說一句，我現在還不知道。我們是——

It could be 12.

可能是 12。

It could be 12. Yes, the capability is 12, and we have to be sure that we can execute them. To be honest, I am not concerned about the market limitation.

可能是 12。是的，能力是12，我們必須確保能夠執行它們。說實話，我並不擔心市場限制。

And the 3300s will -- revenue upon shipment?

3300 型產品在出貨時會產生收入嗎？

So, the -- yes. (Laughter)

所以，--是的。（笑聲）

All right, that's simple. Thanks a lot.

好的，很簡單。多謝。

Mehdi Hosseini.

梅赫迪·胡賽尼。

Susquehanna International. I want to go back to EUV. There's obviously an incremental confidence that is coming through the call. Can you elaborate more? Is this because your license vendors have been able to ship the 50-watt product; any other details that you can share with us as to what has caused this confidence?

薩斯奎漢納國際機場。我想回到 EUV。顯然，透過這通通話，我們的信心正在逐漸增強。能詳細說明一下嗎？這是因為您的許可證供應商已經能夠運送 50 瓦的產品嗎？您能與我們分享其他細節來說明是什麼導致了這種信心嗎？

Well, two factors, one is just a management factor, which says the reason why we got delayed (inaudible) by -- of 1.5 years or something is we faced a huge complexity on an area we didn't think there was as much complexity. And this is a misjudgment that we made jointly with our suppliers of sources.

嗯，有兩個因素，一個是管理因素，也就是說，我們之所以被推遲（聽不清楚）大約 1.5 年，是因為我們在一個我們認為沒有那麼複雜的領域面臨著巨大的複雜性。這是我們與貨源供應商共同做出的錯誤判斷。

So when that was understood last year, in Q4 of 2011 -- in fact, 2010, we jointly worked with our suppliers on a restaffing. And we multiplied the staffing by a large factor. And then from there we cut programs into pieces. So we have now much more visibility and understanding at the management level of each of the piece.

因此，當去年，也就是 2011 年第四季度，也就是 2010 年，我們了解到這一點後，就與我們的供應商共同進行了人員重組。我們將人員編制增加了一大倍。然後我們將程式分成幾個部分。因此，我們現在對每個部分的管理層面有了更多的了解和理解。

And in this business, on the one hand I'm going to say it's usually complicated; on the one hand I'm going to say it's very simple. Every work packages when they are small enough you go through a process of checking. And it's complicated so you can't really design it, but you check it. So you make a prototype. You check it. And then you discover something.

在這個行業中，一方面我想說它通常很複雜；一方面，我想說這非常簡單。當每個工作包足夠小時，您必須經過一個檢查過程。它很複雜，所以你無法真正設計它，但你可以檢查它。所以你製作了一個原型。你檢查一下。然後你發現了一些東西。

And the discovery usually gets you a solution. We are rarely, and at this moment, this is why I'm saying I'm not worried at all about 2014, is we are in situations where we think we have a bunch of small little things which do not work, but we can simulate them, emulate them, check them and discover problems.

而這項發現通常能為你提供解決方案。我們很少，而且在此刻，這就是為什麼我說我一點也不擔心 2014 年，因為我們處於這樣的情況：我們認為我們有很多小事情不起作用，但我們可以模擬它們、模仿它們、檢查它們並發現問題。

So the good news is we have the staff and we have the work packages and we now have an estimate that there is no science. That's the good news. The bad news is, because it's a trial and error situation of multiple work package in parallel, we are not 100% sure of the timing of the whole convergence, which is what I said at the beginning.

因此，好消息是我們有員工，有工作包，我們現在估計沒有科學依據。這是個好消息。壞消息是，因為這是一個多個工作包並行進行的反覆試驗的情況，我們不能 100% 確定整個融合的時間，這就是我在一開始所說的。

So for instance, what we knew for sure is that at the moment, you raise the power into any chamber, you will create numbers of physical impact; whether your coating will react chemically to something else, weather etc. So when that happens, you have to -- if you are lucky, nothing happens. If you are not lucky, everything happens. So you have to change the coating, chemistry; you have to change the weather. And this is what the learning is.

舉例來說，我們確信的是，此刻，你將能量提升到任何腔室，都會產生大量的物理衝擊；您的塗層是否會與其他物質、天氣等發生化學反應。所以當這種情況發生時，你必須——如果你很幸運的話，什麼事也不會發生。如果你不走運，一切都會發生。所以你必須改變塗層、化學成分；你必須改變天氣。這就是學習的內容。

So on one hand we are very comfortable that we have cut the thing in pieces. On the other hand, we are annoyed by the fact that we're still in the learning phase and we cannot tell our customers there is another 10 works -- 10 months, or three months or so we have to do.

因此，一方面，我們很高興將事物分割成碎片。另一方面，我們對自己仍處於學習階段這一事實感到惱火，我們無法告訴客戶我們還有另外 10 項工作——10 個月或 3 個月左右的時間要做。

So yes, the body language is good, because EUV is not a monster that we don't understand. And no, the body language is not so good, because I am also announcing that we are doing immersion and EUV at the same time, because we don't know enough to be sure that we will be able to have 100% of the layers on EUV on time.

所以是的，肢體語言很好，因為 EUV 並不是我們不理解的怪物。不，肢體語言不是很好，因為我還宣布我們正在同時進行浸入式和 EUV，因為我們還不夠了解，無法確保我們能夠按時在 EUV 上完成 100% 的層。

Sure. But has the upgraded light source been shipped to the customer site? I imagine that 3100 was based on a 20 watt. Has that been -- is in the process of being replaced by a 40 watt/50 watt?

當然。但升級後的光源已經發送到客戶現場了嗎？我想像 3100 是基於 20 瓦的。它是否正在被 40 瓦/50 瓦取代？

Well, everything is done in parallel. So you have a project on 105 watt; you have a project on 20 watt; you have a project on 14 watt; you have a project etc.

嗯，一切都是同時進行的。所以你有一個 105 瓦的項目；你有一個 20 瓦的項目；你有一個 14 瓦的項目；你有一個項目等等。

So all of these things have been demonstrated and, to be honest, all of these things are showing problems, and the problems are being worked on. As I said, there is one which is stupid. We put a coating and the coating is being destroyed, and we wondered why we had the coating, and we don't need the coating. So now we are rebuilding a chamber without the coating, etc. takes time, but we know for sure it's going to work.

所以所有這些事情都已經得到證明，老實說，所有這些事情都表明存在問題，而這些問題正在解決。正如我所說，有一個是愚蠢的。我們塗了一層塗層，但塗層卻被破壞了，我們想知道為什麼我們需要塗層，我們不需要塗層。所以現在我們正在重建一個沒有塗層的腔室等。這需要時間，但我們確信它會起作用。

So you cannot -- unfortunately, we cannot give you data which are serial like what you would want; do we have a 20 watt fully working in the full conditions with debris mitigation, with the transmission coating being in place with etc. No, unfortunately we don't have that. We have work packages, multiple people working on solving their own side of the problem.

所以你不能——不幸的是，我們不能給你你想要的串行數據；我們是否有一台 20 瓦的機器，可以在具有碎片減緩功能、傳輸塗層到位等的情況下在完整條件下充分工作。不，很遺憾，我們沒有。我們有工作包，多個人致力於解決他們自己方面的問題。

Sure. And just one quick follow-up, could we see a situation by summertime where, as EUV bookings start to be recognized, especially for 3300, that the ASP difference would enable ASML maybe for the first time to do better than the industry? If this year's CapEx is similar to last year, front-loaded, could EUV make a significant difference for ASML when compared to the rest of the industry?

當然。再問一個問題，到夏季，隨著 EUV 預訂開始得到認可，尤其是 3300，我們是否會看到這樣的情況：ASP 差異可能會使 ASML 首次表現優於行業？如果今年的資本支出與去年相似，且為前期投入，那麼與業內其他公司相比，EUV 能否為 ASML 帶來顯著的變化？

There is -- yes, the EUV build-up at the moment, we are -- we would give a complete green light with no clouds, and would see a huge booking profile and a huge billing profile within 18 months to two years from these bookings. Indeed, that's one of the scenarios.

是的，目前 EUV 正在發展中，我們會毫無顧忌地開綠燈，並且會在這些預訂的 18 個月到兩年內看到巨大的預訂量和賬單量。確實，這是其中一種情況。

You also have a scenario that says we will voluntarily, with customers, focus on only one or two layers, and then the impact will be there, but not as large.

您還會遇到這樣一種情況，即我們將與客戶一起自願只關註一到兩層，這樣雖然會產生影響，但影響不會那麼大。

Okay, got it. Thank you.

好的，明白了。謝謝。

Jagadish Iyer.

賈加迪什·艾爾。

Piper Jaffray; two questions. First, I think, Eric, you made a comment in your prepared commentary; you mentioned about an updated NXT tool. Can you walk us through the rationale for this please?

派珀·傑夫雷（Piper Jaffray）兩個問題。首先，艾瑞克，我認為你在準備好的評論中發表了一條評論；你提到了更新的 NXT 工具。您能向我們解釋一下這樣做的理由嗎？

Okay, this is not a prepared script. I do this on the cuff. I am astonished that you thought that it was prepared.

好吧，這不是準備好的劇本。我即興地這樣做。我很驚訝你竟然認為這是準備好的。

I just wanted to know about the -- is it just a stopgap before the EUV or [more important]?

我只是想知道——它只是 EUV 之前的權宜之計還是[更重要]？

Yes, I'm going to answer your question. So no, it has always been our strength to always cannibalize ourself, if you want. We always put R&D into every project that we think has an opportunity. And the reason we do that is for risk management.

是的，我將回答你的問題。所以，不，如果你願意的話，我們的優勢就在於不斷地蠶食自己。我們始終對每一個我們認為有機會的專案投入研發。我們這樣做的原因是為了風險管理。

So, for instance, today, it's a fundamental that all of you as investors understand that if for some strange reason we are delaying EUV by a major factor, we are still capable of delivering the same revenues for the next two to three years anyway. So there is a fundamental in the Company when you are a single product company that you do not do stupid things that puts you into a situation of catastrophe of that sense.

例如，今天，所有投資者都應該明白，如果由於某些奇怪的原因，我們大幅推遲了 EUV 的發布，那麼無論如何，我們仍然能夠在未來兩到三年內實現相同的收入。因此，當你是一家單一產品公司時，公司有一個基本原則，那就是不做讓你陷入災難境地的蠢事。

Also, at the customer level, we are now, as you know, a fundamental supplier of lithography machines, so we have to have a solution to the need, no matter what situation could happen. So we do have to cannibalize. Therefore, even if I were certain that EUV would work, I would still have somebody doing an NXT version 2, or version 3 in that case.

此外，在客戶層面，如您所知，我們現在是光刻機的主要供應商，因此無論發生什麼情況，我們都必須找到滿足需求的解決方案。所以我們確實必須蠶食。因此，即使我確信 EUV 可行，我仍然會讓某人開發 NXT 版本 2，或在這種情況下開發版本 3。

Second point is be cautious; also, immersion is not dead. When EUV happens, and imagine you put yourself, you transfer, you get yourself and this is good to answer Sandeep's question, what's the size of the Company in 2017/'18, we are going to have a huge number of EUV layers and you are going to have a huge number of immersion layers at the same time.

第二點是要謹慎；此外，沉浸式體驗並未消亡。當 EUV 出現時，想像一下你將自己投入、轉移、獲得自己，這很好地回答了 Sandeep 的問題，2017/18 年公司的規模是多少，我們將擁有大量的 EUV 層，同時你將擁有大量的浸沒層。

So the exciting bit here is that today I'm talking about either/or, and in 2018 I'm going to talk with, additionally. We're talking about huge complexity that, with the two technologies, will be required. Therefore, the NXT3 is designed so that it addresses the layers of immersion also of the future, of 2017/'18.

所以令人興奮的是，今天我要談論的是“非此即彼”，而在 2018 年，我還要另外談論。我們正在談論的是這兩種技術所要求的巨大複雜性。因此，NXT3 的設計也考慮了未來（2017/'18 年）的沉浸感層面。

So in order to get there, you need to have a machine that runs towards 300 wafers per hour. Don't quote me, I didn't say the NXT3 will do 300 immediately, but we have to start thinking about -- or get extra that can do that. It has to be fully modular, because a machine that runs at 300 wafers per hour cannot fail, if you know what I mean; the impact on the factory would be so huge. So we have to create machines which are 100% in action all the time. And if they don't, we can save the day within 10 minutes; we can restart them. So it's a huge concept.

因此，為了實現這一目標，您需要擁有一台每小時可生產 300 片晶圓的機器。不要引用我的話，我並沒有說 NXT3 會立即達到 300，但我們必須開始考慮——或者獲得可以做到這一點的額外產品。它必須是完全模組化的，因為一台以每小時 300 個晶圓的速度運行的機器不能發生故障，如果你明白我的意思；這對工廠的影響將非常巨大。因此，我們必須製造出始終 100% 運轉的機器。如果他們不這樣做，我們可以在 10 分鐘內挽救局面；我們可以重新啟動它們。所以這是一個很大的概念。

And the third huge concept is -- and, by the way when the nanometers in 2017/'18 will be sub 10 nanometer for the resolution, you have to have an overlay, which will be potentially in the areas of 2-ish or whatever which now doesn't make too many nanometers. We'll have to invent the picometers or something.

第三個重要概念是 - 順便說一下，當 2017/'18 年奈米分辨率低於 10 奈米時，您必須有一個覆蓋層，該覆蓋層可能在 2 奈米左右的區域內，現在不會產生太多奈米。我們必須發明皮米或類似的東西。

So it's a huge thing that we anyway have to do. So what we do here is we do it a bit earlier than necessary, as a backup to EUV. But this R&D will be useful for the next generation EUV until immersion to 2020/2022.

所以無論如何這都是一件我們必須要做的大事。因此，我們在這裡所做的是比必要的時間提前一點，作為 EUV 的備份。但這項研發對於下一代 EUV 直至 2020/2022 年的沉浸式發展都將十分有用。

And in addition to that, you have to remember that double or triple patterning is not easy; it's highly complex and especially with the resolution going down. So it means that the focus on the system enhancement products, which is the holistic litho product portfolio, becomes ever increasing important to us and to our customers.

除此之外，你必須記住，雙重或三重圖案化並不容易；它非常複雜，尤其是分辨率下降的時候。因此，這意味著對系統增強產品（即整體光刻產品組合）的關注對我們和我們的客戶來說變得越來越重要。

So you could even argue that next generation double patterning without a good suite of those holistic lithography products is even not possible. So that is good for the Company also, and adds significantly to the ASP and to, I would say, the margin profile.

因此，您甚至可以爭辯說，如果沒有一套完善的整體光刻產品，下一代雙重圖案化就是不可能的。所以這對公司來說也是件好事，並且顯著提高了平均銷售價格，我想說，也提高了利潤率。

Okay. Just a quick follow-up on this one; memory customers were supposed to be the early adopters of EUV. Given the weakening DRAM situation and somewhat of a cautious behavior of capacity addition by spending by NAND customers, how much of latitude would these guys have in terms of pushing out EUV until they find that they have to have a certain specification before they commit to it?

好的。只是對此進行快速跟進；內存客戶應該是 EUV 的早期採用者。鑑於 DRAM 情勢的疲軟以及 NAND 客戶在透過支出增加產能方面採取的謹慎行為，這些公司在推出 EUV 方面有多大的自由度，直到他們發現必須具備一定的規範才能承諾採用 EUV？

Well, first of all, I think we may have miscommunicated a bit; the two drivers segment are DRAM and Logic. The weaker driver is NAND. NAND is a simpler design. So they are alternative to EUV to the longer. So you have priority; it's DRAM then Logic. If there is even a then, by the way, but okay, and then NAND.

嗯，首先，我認為我們可能有點溝通不良；兩個驅動器部分是 DRAM 和 Logic。較弱的驅動因素是 NAND。NAND 是一種更簡單的設計。因此，它們可以長期取代 EUV。所以你有優先權；首先是 DRAM，然後是邏輯。順便說一下，如果還有的話，那麼好吧，然後是 NAND。

The DRAM nightmare is, indeed, affordability, but look at the current structure of the market; you have numbers of leaders who do not have this affordability problem, but they do have the need to shrink. So we think that the DRAM leaders would be usually happy that the market remains a bit difficult in terms of affordability, and that EUV would be available.

DRAM 的噩夢確實是價格問題，但看看當前的市場結構；許多領導人並不存在這種負擔能力問題，但他們確實需要縮減開支。因此，我們認為，DRAM 領導者通常會很高興看到市場在可負擔性方面仍然有點困難，並且 EUV 將會面世。

There could be a differentiator here for that segment. And in particular, the DRAM node is the worst one to do beyond 20-ish nanometer or even at 20-ish nanometer. This is not pleasant for the DRAM vendor at this moment.

對於該部分來說，這裡可能存在一個差異化因素。尤其是 DRAM 節點，在 20 奈米以上甚至 20 奈米以下都是最差的。這對目前的 DRAM 供應商來說並不是一個好消息。

Logic, you have a huge value creation with EUV, because if you do not do EUV, you have design restrictions. If you have a design restriction then and are a foundry, you go to a customer and say, dear customer, I can do anything you want, but these are the rules now; you cannot do that, you cannot do that, you cannot do that, you cannot do that, you cannot do that. And your shrink factor is 10% worse than the normal shrink. That's usually not very pleasant. So EUV will be driven.

從邏輯上講，使用 EUV 可以創造巨大的價值，因為如果不使用 EUV，設計就會受到限制。如果你有一個設計限制並且你是一家代工廠，你去找客戶說，親愛的客戶，我可以做任何你想做的事情，但是這些是現在的規則；你不能那樣做，你不能那樣做，你不能那樣做，你不能那樣做。而且您的收縮因素比正常收縮差 10%。這通常不太令人愉快。因此EUV將會得到推動。

NAND, they will do everything possible to do simple sales until they have to do EUV; that [we knew with this]. And we will force EUV in with a cost effective solution. And at that point, we have a switch. So the good news with NAND for us, until 15 nanometer is -- we can modulate our entry the way we want. If we price EUV low, we get in; if we price EUV high, we sell more immersion. So it's a nice opportunity.

NAND，他們會盡一切可能做簡單的銷售，直到必須做EUV；我們知道這一點。我們將採用具有成本效益的解決方案來強制推行 EUV。此時，我們就有了一個開關。因此，對我們來說，NAND 的好消息是，直到 15 奈米，我們都可以以我們想要的方式調節我們的入口。如果 EUV 定價低，我們就能進入；如果 EUV 定價較高，沉浸式體驗的銷售量就會更好。所以這是一個很好的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, I had hoped to jump in before the last question and tell you that if you didn't get your question asked, that the Investor Relations departments are open for business afterwards, so feel free to give us a call and we'll try to help you out. But we've -- so I'll advise you of that now.

女士們，先生們，我本來希望在最後一個問題之前插話，告訴你們，如果你們沒有提問，投資者關係部門之後還會繼續營業，所以請隨時給我們打電話，我們會盡力幫助你們。但是我們已經——所以我現在就通知你這一點。

We've run out of time so I'd like to, on behalf of ASML's Board of Management, thank you for joining us today. And Operator, if you'd formally close the call, I would appreciate it.

我們的時間已經不夠了，所以我想代表 ASML 管理委員會感謝您今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將非常感激。

Thank you, Mr. DeYoung. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2011 fourth quarter and annual results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你，先生。德揚。女士們、先生們，ASML 2011 年第四季和年度業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。