Arm Holdings 公佈了出色的第三季業績,收入創歷史新高,超出了預期。他們預計第四季將再創新高,並提高了指引。
Arm 的基礎運算平台創造了特許權使用費的持續發展和成長,特別是從過渡到 v9 產品以來。他們也看到了人工智慧驅動設備的強勁勢頭。
Arm 提供了第四季度和全年的指引,預計特許權使用費收入將實現中個位數環比增長,同比增長超過 30%。
他們發布了一款名為 Arm Total Access (ATA) 的新產品,以滿足對具有 AI 加速功能的 CPU 日益增長的需求。
Arm中國表現強勁,約佔總營收的25%。 Armv9 在設備中變得越來越普遍,推動了版稅收入的成長。
該公司對向 v9 核心的過渡充滿信心,並期望更高的費率和更好的特許權使用費結果。他們對資料中心、汽車、物聯網和人工智慧領域的成長機會感到興奮。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Ian Thornton - IR
Ian Thornton - IR
Thank you, everybody.
謝謝大家。
My name is Ian Thornton, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Arm.
我叫 Ian Thornton,是 Arm 投資人關係主管。
I would like to welcome you to our earnings conference call for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024.
歡迎您參加我們截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的財年第三季的收益電話會議。
I'm joined today by Rene Haas, the Chief Executive Officer of ARM, and Jason Child, Arm's Chief Financial Officer.
今天與我一起出席會議的還有 ARM 執行長 Rene Haas 和 Arm 財務長 Jason Child。
Hopefully, you will all have downloaded and read the shareholder letter.
希望你們都已經下載並閱讀了股東信。
If not, it is available on the Arm Investor Relations website at investors.arm.com.
如果沒有,可以在 Arm 投資者關係網站 Investors.arm.com 上找到。
The shareholder letter provides a rich update on our strategic progress in the quarter.
股東信函提供了有關我們本季策略進展的豐富最新資訊。
Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that during the course of this conference call, Arm will discuss forecasts, targets, and other forward-looking information regarding the company and its financial results.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家,在本次電話會議期間,Arm 將討論有關公司及其財務業績的預測、目標和其他前瞻性資訊。
While these statements represent our best current judgment about future results and performance as of today, the actual results are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect.
雖然這些陳述代表了我們目前對未來績效和績效的最佳判斷,但實際結果受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異。
In addition to any risks that we highlight during this call, important risk factors that may affect our future results and performance are described in our registration statement on form F-1 filed with the SEC on September 14, 2023.
除了我們在本次電話會議中強調的任何風險之外,我們於 2023 年 9 月 14 日向 SEC 提交的 F-1 表格註冊聲明中還描述了可能影響我們未來業績和業績的重要風險因素。
Arm assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date they are made.
Arm 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務,這些陳述僅代表截至發布之日的情況。
In addition, we refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the discussion.
此外,我們在討論中也提到了非公認會計準則財務指標。
Reconciliations of certain of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a discussion of certain projected non-GAAP financial measures that we were not able to reconcile without unreasonable efforts, and supplementary financial information can be found in the shareholder letter that we released earlier today.
其中某些非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標的調節,以及對某些預計的非公認會計原則財務指標的討論,如果沒有不合理的努力,我們就無法對這些指標進行調節,補充財務資訊可以在股東中找到我們今天早些時候發布的信函。
The shareholder letter and other earnings-related materials are available on our website at investors.arm.com.
股東信函和其他與收益相關的資料可在我們的網站 Investors.arm.com 上取得。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rene, who has some prepared remarks.
接下來,我會將電話轉給雷內,他有一些準備好的發言。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Thank you, Ian, and good afternoon and good evening, everyone.
謝謝伊恩,大家下午好、晚上好。
So I'd like to speak a few different comments about the quarter and then I'll turn it over to Jason for some specifics, and we'll open it up to Q&A.
因此,我想就本季度發表一些不同的評論,然後我會將其轉交給 Jason 以了解一些具體細節,然後我們將進行問答。
We had an outstanding third quarter inside the company.
我們公司第三季的表現非常出色。
We could not be more pleased.
我們非常高興。
Record revenues.
記錄收入。
We exceeded the high end of the range for the guidance, and extremely pleased about results overall.
我們超越了指導範圍的高端,並對整體結果非常滿意。
For Q4, we're expecting another record quarter.
對於第四季度,我們預計將再次創紀錄的季度。
And to that end, we've also raised guidance of which Jason is going to give more color on.
為此,我們也提出了指導意見,Jason 將對此提供更多的說明。
But little bit regarding the why and how we got here.
但關於我們為什麼以及如何到達這裡的一些資訊。
Arm is the most fundamental foundational pervasive compute platform, really in the history of digital design.
Arm 是數位設計史上最基礎的普適運算平台。
Over 280 billion units in the 30-plus-years that Arm has been a -- company had been built, and that has underpinned a software ecosystem and hardware ecosystem like no other.
Arm 公司成立 30 多年,銷量超過 2,800 億台,支撐著無與倫比的軟體生態系統和硬體生態系統。
And given the fact that a CPU design is really driven by the hardware and the software, it creates a flywheel for continuous development.
鑑於 CPU 設計實際上是由硬體和軟體驅動的,它為持續開發創造了一個飛輪。
That is the more hardware that exists on Arm, the more software this written for Arm; the more software this written for Arm, the more popular the hardware.
也就是說,Arm 上存在的硬體越多,為 Arm 編寫的軟體就越多;為 Arm 編寫的軟體越多,硬體就越受歡迎。
So we're building off a fantastic base that when we look at what happened in the last quarter, not only did we see growth driven by a number of factors, but growth that we think is long-term and sustainable.
因此,我們正在建立一個出色的基礎,當我們審視上個季度發生的情況時,我們不僅看到了由許多因素驅動的成長,而且看到了我們認為是長期和可持續的成長。
For royalties specifically around some of the products that shipped in the quarter, we've seen a significant transition now continuing from our VA product to our v9 product.
對於本季度發貨的一些產品的特許權使用費,我們看到從 VA 產品到 v9 產品的重大轉變仍在繼續。
Our v9 product garners roughly 2x the royalty rate of the equivalent VA product.
我們的 v9 產品所獲得的版稅率大約是同等 VA 產品的 2 倍。
And whereas in the previous quarter, that was about 10% of our revenue for royalties, it's now moved to 15%.
上一季度,特許權使用費約占我們收入的 10%,現在已升至 15%。
And that has seen growth in not only the smartphone sector, but also in infrastructure and other markets which drives growth.
這不僅體現在智慧型手機領域,也體現在基礎設施和其他推動成長的市場。
We are also seeing a strong momentum and tailwinds from all things AI.
我們也看到人工智慧的強勁勢頭和推動力。
From the most complex devices on the planet for training and inference, the NVIDIA GH200 to edge devices such as the Gemini Nano Pixel 6 from Google or the Samsung Galaxy S24, more and more AI is running on more edge device -- end devices, and that's all running on Arm.
從地球上最複雜的訓練和推理設備 NVIDIA GH200 到邊緣設備(例如 Google 的 Gemini Nano Pixel 6 或三星 Galaxy S24),越來越多的人工智慧正在更多的邊緣設備(終端設備)上運行,並且這一切都在Arm 上運行。
And what that has done is driven a very strong set of tailwinds for our licensing growth.
這為我們的授權成長帶來了一系列非常強勁的推動力。
When we look at demand for new products from a licensing standpoint, what we are finding from the end market is that we've reached nowhere near good enough relative to the capability of the technology, and end customers for new designs are needing more and more Arm technology to keep up, particularly with the AI demands.
當我們從許可的角度看待新產品的需求時,我們從終端市場發現,相對於技術能力而言,我們還遠遠不夠好,新設計的終端客戶需要越來越多的產品。 Arm 技術要跟上,尤其是人工智慧的需求。
So with that, our licensing growth has been very strong.
因此,我們的授權成長非常強勁。
We've also seen proof points around one of our strategies that we call compute subsystems.
我們也看到了有關我們稱為計算子系統的策略之一的證據。
These are complete finished blocks of designs that we put together for our end customers, that will save them significant time around validation of their engineering work and also around time to market relative to cycling products through the fab.
這些是我們為最終客戶組裝的完整設計區塊,這將為他們節省大量驗證工程工作的時間,以及相對於透過工廠循環產品的上市時間。
One of the very first designs that was made public that uses this is the Microsoft Cobalt, which uses our Neoverse scores of 128 CPUs to be specific.
Microsoft Cobalt 是最早公開使用此技術的設計之一,具體來說,它使用了我們的 Neoverse 分數 128 個 CPU。
We work very closely with Microsoft around these designs using compute subsystems, and we see this trend only going to continue.
我們與 Microsoft 圍繞這些使用計算子系統的設計進行了密切合作,我們認為這種趨勢只會持續下去。
So between strong growth in royalties that are driven between v8, v9, all things AI leading energy efficient compute and compute subsystems, we feel very, very strongly positioned for growth.
因此,在 v8、v9、人工智慧領先的節能運算和計算子系統之間推動的版稅強勁成長之間,我們感覺非常非常有利於成長。
And again, this is completely underpinned via ecosystem of devices that are in the installed base and our very, very large software community that develops on Arm.
再說一次,這完全是透過現有設備生態系統以及我們在 Arm 上開發的非常非常大的軟體社群來支撐的。
So with that, I will turn it over to Jason, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.
因此,我會將其交給 Jason,然後我們將打開它進行問答。
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Thank you, Rene.
謝謝你,雷內。
I'm going to briefly touch on guidance for the fourth quarter and full year.
我將簡要介紹第四季和全年的指導。
Starting with revenues.
從收入開始。
For fiscal Q4, we are guiding to a range of $850 million to $900 million with a midpoint of $875 million.
對於第四財季,我們的指導範圍為 8.5 億至 9 億美元,中間值為 8.75 億美元。
This represents a raise of over $95 million compared to our prior implied guidance for the fourth quarter.
與我們之前對第四季度的隱含指導相比,這意味著增加了超過 9500 萬美元。
When combined with our strong Q3 performance, the full year revenue guidance rises to $3.155 billion to $3.205 billion, an increase of $160 million at the midpoint versus prior.
結合我們強勁的第三季業績,全年營收指引將升至 31.55 億美元至 32.05 億美元,比之前的中點增加 1.6 億美元。
Within Q4 total revenue, we expect royalty revenues to grow mid-single digits sequentially and to be up over 30% year-over-year as we compare against the bottom of the industry-wide inventory correction that occurred in prior year Q4.
在第四季的總收入中,與去年第四季全行業庫存修正的底部相比,我們預計特許權使用費收入將連續增長中個位數,同比增長超過 30%。
Royalty revenue sequential growth is mainly coming from increasing penetration of Armv9, where royalty rates are on average at least double the rates on equivalent Armv8 products.
版稅收入季增主要來自 Armv9 滲透率的提高,其平均版稅率至少是同等 Armv8 產品的兩倍。
Additionally, we are seeing an increasing amount of Arm technology in chips being deployed.
此外,我們也看到越來越多的 Arm 技術被部署在晶片中。
And as the amount of Arm technology and chips increases, so does the royalty rate.
隨著 Arm 技術和晶片數量的增加,特許權使用費也隨之增加。
With around 35% of Arm's total -- sorry, Arm's royalty revenue coming from smartphones, we have benefited from recovery in the smartphone market.
Arm 約 35% 的特許權使用費收入來自智慧型手機,我們從智慧型手機市場的復甦中受益。
Both 65% coming from markets beyond mobile, we are seeing more revenue growth from share gains and market share growth outside of mobile.
65% 的收入都來自行動以外的市場,我們看到更多的收入成長來自行動以外的份額成長和市場份額成長。
Additionally, we are expecting another strong quarter for licensing with revenue up sequentially to near record levels.
此外,我們預計授權業務將迎來另一個強勁的季度,營收將連續成長至接近歷史最高水準。
As with recent quarters, we expect to sign multiple new ATA deals in Q4.
與最近幾季一樣,我們預計第四季將簽署多項新的 ATA 協議。
And demand for our latest technology remains high as customers need access to AI-capable CPUs and related technology such as our compute subsystems.
由於客戶需要使用支援人工智慧的 CPU 和相關技術(例如我們的計算子系統),因此對我們最新技術的需求仍然很高。
Turning to expenses.
轉向開支。
We expect non-GAAP OpEx of approximately $490 million in Q4 and $1.7 billion for the full year.
我們預計第四季非 GAAP 營運支出約為 4.9 億美元,全年營運支出約為 17 億美元。
On a like-for-like basis, our full year guidance has increased by $10 million, driven by slightly higher spend in R&D.
在同比基礎上,由於研發支出略有增加,我們的全年指導增加了 1000 萬美元。
As detailed in the guidance section of our shareholder letter, to increase transparency and improve the comparability of our results, beginning in Q4, the presentation of our non-GAAP measures will be modified to exclude employer taxes related to equity classified awards.
正如我們股東信的指導部分所詳述的,為了提高透明度並提高我們結果的可比性,從第四季度開始,我們的非公認會計原則措施的表述將被修改,以排除與股權分類獎勵相關的雇主稅。
These taxes are dependent on our stock price at the time of vesting, and as a result, fluctuate independently of the operating performance of our business.
這些稅費取決於行使時我們的股價,因此,其波動與我們業務的經營績效無關。
The impact of this change has been factored into today's non-GAAP Q4 and full year guidance for operating expenses fully diluted EPS.
這項變更的影響已計入今天的非公認會計原則第四季度和全年營業費用完全攤薄每股收益的指導中。
On an EPS basis, revenue strength will flow through to profit, driving Q4 non-GAAP fully diluted EPS up to between $0.28 and $0.32, and full year non-GAAP fully diluted EPS to up between $1.20 and $1.24.
以每股收益為基礎,營收實力將轉化為利潤,推動第四季度非 GAAP 完全稀釋每股收益升至 0.28 至 0.32 美元,全年非 GAAP 完全稀釋每股收益升至 1.20 至 1.24 美元。
In summary, we had an outstanding Q3 and expect our momentum to accelerate through Q4 and beyond.
總而言之,我們在第三季度表現出色,預計我們的勢頭將在第四季度及以後加速。
With that, I will now turn it back over to the operator to kick off the Q&A portion of the call.
現在,我將把它轉回接線生以開始通話的問答部分。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.
哈蘭‧蘇爾,摩根大通。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Yes, thank you.
是的,謝謝。
Good afternoon and congratulations on the strong results guidance and of course, execution.
下午好,恭喜強而有力的結果指導,當然還有執行力。
December quarter, as you guys mentioned right, second consecutive quarter of strong licensing, second consecutive quarter of book-to-bill greater than one strong ACV.
12 月季度,正如你們所提到的,連續第二個季度的強勁許可,連續第二季的訂單出貨量大於一個強勁的 ACV。
Sounds like many of your customers across all of your end markets are focusing on accelerated compute and AI, and the requirements for more compute capability, and that's obviously being reflected in the strong licensing performance.
聽起來您所有終端市場的許多客戶都專注於加速運算和人工智慧,以及對更多運算能力的要求,這顯然反映在強大的授權效能中。
How much of the expansion on recent licensing deals has been more about adding your AI specific IP right, like your Ethos NPU or taking advantage of some of your helium and neon vector extensions for AI workloads or compute subsystems adoption versus just buying up the stack on more powerful cores?
最近許可交易的擴展有多少更多是為了添加您的AI 特定IP 權利,例如您的Ethos NPU,或者利用您的一些氦和氖向量擴展來實現AI 工作負載或計算子系統的採用,而不是僅僅購買堆疊更強大的核心?
And then more importantly, like these, I see the strong licensing momentum continuing into fiscal '25.
更重要的是,像這些一樣,我看到強勁的許可動能將持續到 25 財年。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Hi, Harlan, and thank you for the kind words.
你好,哈倫,謝謝你的客氣話。
I'll take the first part of your question and then let Jason comment on the second half.
我將回答你問題的第一部分,然後讓傑森評論後半部分。
What are the new products that we released relative from a licensing standpoint, it is something we call Arm Total Access, which is referred to as ATA.
從授權的角度來說,我們發布的新產品有哪些,我們稱之為Arm Total Access,簡稱ATA。
That gives customers access to a broad set of Arm technology, including our most advanced CPUs and NPUs.
這使客戶能夠獲得廣泛的 Arm 技術,包括我們最先進的 CPU 和 NPU。
And one of the things that we are seeing is exactly what you described.
我們所看到的事情之一正是您所描述的。
We're seeing demand for incorporating CPUs with anything that helps with AI acceleration such as vector extensions.
我們看到了將 CPU 與任何有助於 AI 加速(例如向量擴展)相結合的需求。
Additionally, the ATAs give customers access to the NPUs, which they can also use for an offload.
此外,ATA 還允許客戶存取 NPU,他們也可以使用 NPU 進行卸載。
What we are seeing anecdotally relative to when we engage customers is that the need for more compute, the need to be able to handle, what I would call, a bit of the unknown relative to these a large language models that either run on an edge device or in a hybrid way, is fundamentally driving a need for more compute than they had before.
當我們與客戶接觸時,我們看到的是,需要更多的計算,需要能夠處理,我所說的,相對於這些運行在邊緣的大型語言模型的一些未知因素設備或混合方式,從根本上推動了對比以前更多計算的需求。
So they are looking to upgrade to give themselves flexibility on the design and also to maximize their ability to deliver the most efficient product, whether that's lots of different cores or a smaller set of devices that may or may not include NPU.
因此,他們希望透過升級來賦予自己設計靈活性,並最大限度地提高交付最高效產品的能力,無論是許多不同的核心還是可能包含或不包含 NPU 的較小設備集。
So in summary, yes, your question I think is accurate relative to the conclusion of AI demand is driving the need for a lot of different products.
總而言之,是的,我認為你的問題相對於人工智慧需求的結論是準確的,而人工智慧需求正在推動對許多不同產品的需求。
And I'll let Jason kind of comment to the longer term trend that we see.
我會讓傑森對我們看到的長期趨勢發表評論。
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Yeah, Harlan, I would say on the looking forward -- so obviously, only I gave guidance for Q4.
是的,哈倫,我會說關於展望 - 很明顯,只有我給了第四季度的指導。
But going beyond that, when you unpack licensing versus royalty, because of the fact that we're largely almost entirely under contract for next year on royalties, we feel good about those trends.
但除此之外,當你將許可與版稅分開時,因為我們幾乎完全簽訂了明年的版稅合同,所以我們對這些趨勢感到滿意。
But it's the license piece that's a little harder to forecast.
但許可證部分有點難以預測。
If I look at last quarter and Q4 that's coming up, we've definitely had some upside from AI and selling additional licenses that weren't just not in our plan and not anticipated.
如果我看看上個季度和即將到來的第四季度,我們肯定會從人工智慧和銷售額外的許可證中獲得一些好處,這些好處不僅不在我們的計劃中,也沒有預料到。
So I think we're going to need to work through this quarter to find out how much of that upside continues to and that trend flows into next year, because we've seen this demand has been coming, I think, a little shorter sales cycles than we have seen with typically before.
因此,我認為我們需要在本季度進行工作,以找出這種上升趨勢會持續到明年,並且這種趨勢會延續到明年,因為我們已經看到這種需求已經到來,我認為,銷售量有所減少週期比我們以前看到的通常要多。
So I'd say stay tuned, in 90 days, we'll give you a better view.
所以我想說,請繼續關注,90 天后,我們將為您提供更好的視野。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
No, helpful.
不,有幫助。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Gary Mobley, Wells Fargo.
加里‧莫布里,富國銀行。
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Hi, guys, thanks very much for taking my question.
嗨,夥計們,非常感謝您提出我的問題。
Let me extend my congratulations to the entire Arm team for the strong results.
讓我向整個 Arm 團隊取得的優異成績表示祝賀。
Can't help but notice the strength in business from Arm China, maybe if you can speak to what drove that strong results out of Arm China?
不禁注意到Arm中國的業務實力,也許您能談談是什麼推動了Arm中國取得如此強勁的業績?
And besides Arm China, were there any other greater than 10% customers in the quarter?
除了Arm中國之外,本季還有其他超過10%的客戶嗎?
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah, I would say, broadly speaking, we are seeing increased market share gains for our products across the board, particularly, around automotive and infrastructure slash data center.
是的,我想說,從廣義上講,我們看到我們產品的市場份額全面增加,特別是在汽車和基礎設施削減資料中心方面。
Inside China, those are very good growth markets.
在中國境內,這些都是非常好的成長市場。
One of the things we continue to comment on relative to the China market is that the China ecosystem tends to follow the global ecosystem.
關於中國市場,我們繼續評論的一件事是,中國生態系統傾向於追隨全球生態系統。
So as we see the share gains across different aspects of the market, we're seeing that consistent and holding true relative to China.
因此,當我們看到市場不同方面的份額成長時,我們看到這種情況相對於中國來說是一致且真實的。
Jason, you want to take the other part of that?
傑森,你想接受另一部分嗎?
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Yes, just on the numbers to make sure it's clear.
是的,只是看數字以確保清楚。
So when we announce related parties, I think we're about 30% of growth.
因此,當我們宣布關聯方時,我認為我們的成長率約為 30%。
Arm China is the largest portion of that.
Arm中國是其中最大的一部分。
However, there are others.
然而,還有其他的。
So Arm China was about 25% of total revenue, just slightly up from the 20% from a quarter ago.
因此,Arm 中國約佔總營收的 25%,僅略高於一個季度前的 20%。
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Gary Mobley - Analyst
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
The gains in the royalty rate per unit, if I can add a follow on, certainly are accelerating, is that all driven by Arm version 9?
如果我可以添加後續功能,每單位專利費率的成長肯定會加速,這都是由 Arm 版本 9 驅動的嗎?
And should we continue to expect that upward inflection in the royalty rate per unit?
我們是否應該繼續預期每單位特許權使用費率會上升?
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah, I think that's the right way to think about it.
是的,我認為這是正確的思考方式。
So as mentioned, Armv9 was 10% of our royalty revenue last quarter, now at 15%, we see that accelerating.
如前所述,Armv9 上季度占我們特許權使用費收入的 10%,現在為 15%,我們看到這一比例正在加速成長。
The other thing we are seeing is that the mixes, devices that might have a mix of v8 and v9 cores are increasingly moving to more v9 cores.
我們看到的另一件事是,可能混合使用 v8 和 v9 核心的混合設備正在越來越多地轉向更多的 v9 核心。
And the reason for that is, back to the AI comment, the compute needs of the end applications only continues to increase.
原因是,回到人工智慧評論,最終應用程式的運算需求只會繼續增加。
And what we're seeing is customers looking to put more and more technology into their devices, perhaps even more than they originally planned for when they license the technology.
我們看到的是,客戶希望將越來越多的技術應用到他們的設備中,甚至可能比他們在獲得技術許可時最初計劃的要多。
So it's a compounding effect of growth.
所以這是成長的複合效應。
We see growth from royalty happening from v8 to v9 transition, and more Arm technology being used in the same devices.
我們看到從 v8 到 v9 的過渡帶來的版稅成長,以及更多的 Arm 技術被用在相同的裝置中。
So it's a bit of a compounding effect that helps us with growth.
所以這是一種有助於我們成長的複合效應。
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thomas OâMalley, Barclays.
托馬斯·奧馬利,巴克萊銀行。
Thomas OâMalley - Analyst
Thomas OâMalley - Analyst
Hey, guys.
大家好。
Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the nice results.
感謝您提出我的問題,並祝賀取得了良好的結果。
I just wanted to add a question to the v9 pile here.
我只是想在這裡為 v9 堆添加一個問題。
You guys are talking about traction in AI, smartphones, infrastructure.
你們正在談論人工智慧、智慧型手機、基礎設施的吸引力。
You're saying that that percentage is the percentage of total revenue grows into the next fiscal year.
您說的百分比是下一財年總收入成長的百分比。
Where are you seeing the most of that traction?
您在哪裡看到了最大的吸引力?
You called that AI a couple of times here early in the call, but is that coming more from the smartphone side or the AI side?
您在通話初期多次提到人工智慧,但這更多的是來自智慧型手機方面還是人工智慧方面?
And just maybe talk about the cadence of where you see that penetration rate growing as you get into the next fiscal year?
也許可以談談您認為進入下一財年時滲透率成長的節奏?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah.
是的。
So thanks for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
So a couple of ways to think about it.
有幾種方法可以考慮。
There's definitely growth coming from the data center side.
資料中心方面一定會出現成長。
So proof points such as NVIDIA's Grace Hopper, the Microsoft Cobalt design, the work that AWS has been doing with Graviton, what we are seeing is more and more AI demands in the data center, whether that's around training or inference.
NVIDIA 的 Grace Hopper、微軟 Cobalt 設計、AWS 與 Graviton 所做的工作等證據表明,我們看到資料中心對人工智慧的需求越來越多,無論是訓練還是推理。
And because the Arm solution in the data center in particular is extremely good in terms of performance per watt, and the constraints that are on today's data center is relative to running these AI workloads puts a huge demand on power, that's a great tailwind for Arm.
而且,由於資料中心的Arm 解決方案在每瓦效能方面都非常出色,而且當今資料中心的限制與運行這些人工智慧工作負載有關,因此對電力提出了巨大的需求,這對Arm 來說是一個巨大的推動力。
If we move to the edge devices such as a smartphone, we've seen -- and I think the recent launches, as I mentioned with Gemini Nano and the Galaxy S24, increased AI workloads being pushed to the phone.
如果我們轉向智慧型手機等邊緣設備,我們就會看到——而且我認為最近的發布,正如我在Gemini Nano 和Galaxy S24 中提到的那樣,增加了人工智能工作負載被推到手機上的情況。
And what we're seeing from the design standpoint is more and more compute technology being pushed into those phones such as they are AI capable and AI-ready, because this field is moving very, very fast.
從設計的角度來看,我們看到越來越多的運算技術被推入這些手機中,例如它們具有人工智慧功能和人工智慧準備就緒,因為這個領域發展得非常非常快。
A year from now, who knows what the type of AI applications that might be able to run on a smartphone.
一年後,誰知道什麼類型的人工智慧應用程式可以在智慧型手機上運行。
So what we're seeing is a shift to more and more high-performance capable technology to capture a wave to ensure that they can run these AI workloads.
因此,我們看到的是轉向越來越多的高效能技術來捕捉浪潮,以確保他們能夠運行這些人工智慧工作負載。
Nobody wants to be caught behind with not enough performance when the new application comes out.
沒有人願意在新應用程式推出時因性能不足而落後。
So that has accelerated the v9 adoption, both from a standpoint of more devices using it and more devices using more of it.
因此,無論是從更多設備使用它還是從更多設備使用更多它的角度來看,這都加速了 v9 的採用。
And to your question, where is it coming from?
對於你的問題,它來自哪裡?
It's coming from everywhere.
它來自四面八方。
It's coming from, certainly, the data center, certainly from the edge devices.
它當然來自資料中心,當然來自邊緣設備。
And we think over time, even AIPCs, so it's a huge growth vector.
我們認為,隨著時間的推移,即使是 AIPC,它也是一個巨大的成長向量。
Thomas OâMalley - Analyst
Thomas OâMalley - Analyst
Super helpful.
超有幫助。
And then if I could just ask a follow-up as well.
然後我是否也可以詢問後續情況。
If you look at kind of the seasonality to close here, you obviously saw really strong results in both the December and the March quarter.
如果您查看此處關閉的季節性,您顯然會在 12 月和 3 月季度看到非常強勁的業績。
Obviously, you're not perfect with units, but if you look at June and the smartphone ecosystem, you're kind of seeing a little bit of a pause in the Android ecosystem and kind of some cautious data points from the supply chain in general.
顯然,你的單位並不完美,但如果你看看 6 月和智慧型手機生態系統,你會發現 Android 生態系統有一點停頓,並且總體上來自供應鏈的一些謹慎的數據點。
Could you talk about what you expect in terms of seasonality to start your fiscal year?
您能談談您對開始本財年的季節性的預期嗎?
Any tidbits there would be helpful.
那裡的任何花絮都會有幫助。
I know you're not guiding June, but any way to help think about how we begin the next fiscal year would be helpful.
我知道您沒有指導六月,但任何幫助我們思考如何開始下一個財政年度的方法都會有所幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah.
是的。
I'm not going to comment in terms of too far forward on the seasonality component to what we're doing.
我不會對我們正在做的事情的季節性因素做出過於超前的評論。
But what I would emphasize is that we're a bit of a different company to think about relative to how you think about other companies in terms of their specific exposure to a market.
但我要強調的是,就其他公司對市場的具體暴露程度而言,我們是一家有點不同的公司。
We are involved in just about every single end market, and every single end market is moving from v8 to v9, which as I said, doubled the royalty rates.
我們幾乎涉足每一個終端市場,並且每個終端市場都在從 v8 轉向 v9,正如我所說,這使版稅率翻了一番。
And just about every single one of these markets is putting more compute into their devices.
幾乎每個市場都在其設備中投入更多的運算能力。
So sometimes when we've had questions and folks saying, well, wait a minute, I'm trying to figure out how units match up to the numbers.
因此,有時當我們遇到問題並且人們說,好吧,等一下時,我會嘗試弄清楚單位如何與數字相匹配。
We're operating on a little bit of a different plane because of our broad, broad adoption.
由於我們的廣泛採用,我們的運作方式略有不同。
And as I mentioned at the start of the call, the pervasiveness of the architecture, it's just driving a whole different set of growth vectors.
正如我在電話會議開始時所提到的,架構的普遍性,它只是推動了一組完全不同的成長向量。
Thomas OâMalley - Analyst
Thomas OâMalley - Analyst
Thank you very much, guys.
非常感謝你們。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya,美國銀行證券公司。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
I just wanted to clarify, Rene, is this -- on the v9, is the 10% to 15% related to number of customers, number of chips or revenue related to those, because I think in the shareholder letter, it's qualified as v9 of 15% of royalty revenue rather than -- I guess the bigger question is just so that we have an apples to apples sense of how many of your smartphone units are actually using v9 right now versus the ones that used v9 n the last quarter?
我只是想澄清一下,Rene,在 v9 上,10% 到 15% 與客戶數量、晶片數量或與這些相關的收入有關,因為我認為在股東信中,它符合 v9 的資格15% 的版稅收入,而不是——我想更大的問題是,我們可以比較一下,現在有多少智慧型手機實際使用v9,而上個季度使用v9 的智慧型手機有多少?
Is that a better way to track v9 adoption?
這是追蹤 v9 採用情況的更好方法嗎?
(multiple speakers)
(多個發言者)
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah, so let me try to answer your question and maybe, Jason, Ian, if I if I am missing some facts, you guys can fill in.
是的,所以讓我試著回答你們的問題,傑森、伊恩,如果我遺漏了一些事實,你們可以補充。
First off, the number when we say 10% and 15%, that's percentage of our overall royalty revenue.
首先,當我們說 10% 和 15% 時,這個數字是我們整體版稅收入的百分比。
So that's the way to think about.
這就是思考的方式。
When when you think about the number of units that are moving from v8 to v9, I don't think we have anything specific that I can give you on this call.
當您考慮從 v8 轉移到 v9 的單位數量時,我認為我們在這次電話會議上沒有任何具體資訊可以提供給您。
But what I can tell you is just as an example or an anecdote is that v9 is being used extensively in almost exclusively now in all the premium smartphones.
但我可以告訴你的是,作為一個例子或一個軼事,v9 現在幾乎完全在所有高階智慧型手機中廣泛使用。
And the premium smartphones such as the Galaxy S24, those are actually part of the segments that are seeing a little bit better growth than their compatriots.
而像 Galaxy S24 這樣的高階智慧型手機,這些其實是比其同胞成長得更好的細分市場的一部分。
So given the fact that virtually all the premium smartphones have now moved to v9, and as I mentioned before, people are trying to put as much v9 technology in that smartphone to capture the AI wave.
因此,考慮到幾乎所有高階智慧型手機現在都已轉向 v9,正如我之前提到的,人們正試圖在智慧型手機中引入盡可能多的 v9 技術,以捕捉人工智慧浪潮。
I guess maybe one way to think about proportionately where some of the growth comes versus units.
我想這也許是一種按比例考慮增長來自單位的方式。
What we tend to see with the smartphone market, for example, is typically a waterfall over time where what was in the premium unit finds its way into the high-end then into the midrange.
例如,我們在智慧型手機市場上看到的情況通常是隨著時間的推移呈現瀑布式成長,高階產品逐漸進入高階市場,然後進入中端市場。
But that's the way I -- maybe a good way to think about it in temrs of where the percentages are.
但這就是我的方式——也許是根據百分比來思考這個問題的好方法。
There certainly is a lot of v9 in the premium smartphone, and we're seeing a lot of premium smartphones being sold.
高階智慧型手機肯定有很多 v9,而且我們看到很多高階智慧型手機正在銷售。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna
邁赫迪·侯賽尼,薩斯奎哈納
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Yes, thanks for taking my question.
是的,感謝您提出我的問題。
Just actually as a follow-up, is there any way you could elaborate on the mix of v9 by end market, like a smartphone versus cloud compute?
實際上,作為後續行動,您是否可以透過終端市場詳細說明 v9 的組合,例如智慧型手機與雲端運算?
And I have a follow-up.
我有一個後續行動。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
I'll attempt to answer that.
我將嘗試回答這個問題。
And again, maybe Ian and Jason -- as a premium smartphone is almost exclusively now v9 and virtually, every high-end data center chip is v9.
再說一遍,也許是 Ian 和 Jason,因為現在高階智慧型手機幾乎都是 v9,而且幾乎所有高階資料中心晶片都是 v9。
When you look at Grace Hopper, when you look at Graviton, when you look at Microsoft Cobalt, these are all v9 based designs.
當你看 Grace Hopper 時,當你看 Graviton 時,當你看 Microsoft Cobalt 時,這些都是基於 v9 的設計。
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
And only I'd add, on a -- in terms of royalty revenue and then chips that have actually been deployed in the market, we are overweighted towards smartphones on v9, primarily because it's an annual refresh cycle.
我只想補充一點——就版稅收入和市場上實際部署的晶片而言,我們對 v9 智慧型手機的重視程度過高,主要是因為它是每年一次的更新周期。
And so I would think of that being a bit ahead.
所以我認為這有點超前了。
Over time, I think the other lines of businesses will catch up, but it's predominantly or definitely weighted more towards smartphone for the reasons that Rene just pointed out on premium mix.
隨著時間的推移,我認為其他業務線將會迎頭趕上,但由於 Rene 剛才在高端組合方面指出的原因,它主要或肯定更傾向於智慧型手機。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And my follow-up has to do with the market share.
我的後續行動與市場佔有率有關。
I think and of FY24 -- I'm sorry, end of FY23 cloud was about 10% market share for you and networking was 26%.
我認為 24 財年——抱歉,23 財年末,雲端市場佔有率約為 10%,網路市場佔有率為 26%。
Is there any way you can give us some color as you close FY24, how those market shares are changing?
在 2024 財年結束時,您有什麼辦法可以告訴我們這些市佔率如何改變嗎?
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah, not today, we're not prepared to give that.
是的,不是今天,我們不準備這樣做。
When we give the update for next year or the next quarter, we can do that.
當我們提供明年或下個季度的更新時,我們可以這樣做。
But I can say we're very pleased about the direction of travel, and AI has only helped that grow faster.
但我可以說,我們對前進的方向感到非常滿意,而人工智慧只會幫助它更快發展。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.
維傑·拉克什,瑞穗。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Yeah, hi, congratulations again on a great quarter.
是的,嗨,再次恭喜這個季度的出色表現。
Just a quick question on the cloud compute side, if you could give us some way of how to look at what do you think with the growth in 2024, given you have some pretty marquee customers such as GH200, and Graviton, and Cobalt 100 now?
只是一個關於雲端運算的簡單問題,鑑於您現在擁有一些相當大的客戶,例如 GH200、Graviton 和 Cobalt 100,您是否可以給我們一些方法來了解您對 2024 年成長的看法?
And I've got a follow-up.
我還有後續行動。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Sorry, I didn't catch -- you're asking about projected growth for next year in cloud?
抱歉,我沒聽清楚——您是在問明年雲端運算的預計成長嗎?
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Yeah, just for the current year '24, how do you see the growth with those on the cloud compute side?
是的,就今年 '24 而言,您如何看待雲端運算方面的成長?
You have some big marquee customers there now.
現在你們那裡有一些大客戶。
How do you see that growth?
您如何看待這種成長?
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
As René just mentioned for the last question, we'll provide our market share update on specific on compute, which is for us almost all cloud in the infrastructure.
正如 René 剛剛在最後一個問題中提到的那樣,我們將提供特定於運算的市場份額更新,這對我們來說幾乎是基礎設施中的所有雲端。
And we'll provide some views on where we expect that to go next year.
我們將就明年的發展方向提供一些看法。
So give us 90 days.
所以給我們 90 天的時間。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And then on the mobile side, obviously you mentioned good traction with v9.
然後在移動方面,顯然您提到了 v9 的良好牽引力。
Just wondering what the penetration rate on v9 is now, when you look at the premium phones, I guess all of it?
只是想知道現在 v9 的滲透率是多少,當你看看高階手機時,我猜都是這樣?
But what the trajectory on that is through the year, I guess?
但我猜這一年的軌跡是怎麼樣的呢?
I mean, you save it for later.
我的意思是,你把它保存起來以供以後使用。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Is your question, what percentage of smartphones have v9?
您的問題是,有多少比例的智慧型手機配備 v9?
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah.
是的。
As I mentioned earlier, the numbers are somewhat skewed relative to the premium segment versus the broader segment.
正如我之前提到的,相對於高端細分市場和更廣泛的細分市場,這些數字有些偏差。
If you look at overall units, most of the premium, if not all, smartphones have moved to v9, and the rest of the segments have been slower to adopt.
如果你看一下整體單位,大多數高階智慧型手機(如果不是全部的話)已經轉向 v9,而其餘細分市場的採用速度較慢。
But the premium segment draws a very, very large mixture of lots of cores and lots of royalty rich cores.
但高端細分市場吸引了非常非常多的核心和大量特許權使用費豐富的核心。
So it tends to weigh out the numbers relative to overall units.
因此,它傾向於權衡相對於整體單位的數字。
We expect v9 and -- Ian, keep me accountable on this -- use the next three, four years to kind of find its way throughout the entire smartphone category.
我們預計 v9 以及——伊恩,請讓我對此負責——在接下來的三四年內在整個智慧型手機類別中找到自己的出路。
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Yeah, if you go back to how v8 took over v7, it took about that three years to get flowing from (technical difficulty) to about 80%, 89% penetrated.
是的,如果你回顧 v8 是如何取代 v7 的,你會發現從(技術難度)到大約 80%、89% 的滲透率大約花了三年的時間。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.
羅斯·西莫爾,德意志銀行。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Hi, guys.
嗨,大家好。
Thanks for answering my question, and congrats on the strong results and guide.
感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀您取得了出色的成果和指導。
I wanted to go back to the Arm China conversation.
我想回到 Arm 中國的話題。
So a clarification on the main question.
所以對主要問題進行澄清。
The clarification was that 25% that I think, Jason, you mentioned, was that of total revenues or just the royalties?
需要澄清的是,傑森,你提到的 25% 是總收入的一部分還是只是特許權使用費?
And then the main question is, could you just help us break down a little bit how that is so strong?
然後主要的問題是,你能幫我們解釋一下它是如何如此強大的嗎?
Whether it's total revenues or just of royalties, that was a significant driver of growth.
無論是總收入還是特許權使用費,這都是成長的重要推動力。
And depending upon the answer to the clarification, it could have been more than all of the sequential growth.
根據澄清的答案,這可能超過所有的連續增長。
So I just wanted to get my arms around what was really driving the growth and how much of it came from Arm China?
所以我只是想了解真正推動成長的因素以及其中有多少來自Arm中國?
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Yes, China was 25% of total revenues in Q3, and that's up from 20% in Q2.
是的,第三季中國市場佔總營收的 25%,高於第二季的 20%。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
And then what was driving that?
那麼是什麼推動了這一點呢?
Because, again by that math it seems like the China side was up, I don't know, 30%, and everything else kind of went down a little bit sequentially.
因為,再次透過數學計算,中國方面似乎上升了,我不知道,30%,而其他所有方面都依次下降了一點。
Was that just the China handset market coming back to life?
這只是中國手機市場的復甦嗎?
Was it more goodness beyond that?
除此之外還有更多的善意嗎?
Just any color you could give on what drove that China growth that was so impressive?
您能否對推動中國經濟如此令人印象深刻的成長的原因給出任何顏色?
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah, we don't break down the individual customers.
是的,我們不會細分個人客戶。
But as I said, the China ecosystem tends to follow the rest of the world relative to the growth.
但正如我所說,中國生態系統的成長往往跟隨世界其他地區。
So when we talk about growth in data centers and we talk about growth in automotive, and to your comment, certainly recovering the smartphone market helps.
因此,當我們談論資料中心的成長和汽車領域的成長時,根據您的評論,智慧型手機市場的復甦肯定會有所幫助。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Charles Shi, Needham & Company.
查爾斯‧史(Charles Shi),李約瑟公司。
Charles Shi - Analyst
Charles Shi - Analyst
Hey, thanks.
嘿,謝謝。
My congratulations to Arm management team on the very strong results, very impressive.
我祝賀 Arm 管理團隊取得了非常出色的成績,令人印象深刻。
I do want to dig into a little bit more on the on the China and the related party side of the revenue.
我確實想深入研究一下中國和關聯方的收入。
Because when I look at your historical numbers, your Arm China contribution tracks almost identical the related party transactions.
因為當我查看你們的歷史資料時,你們對 Arm 中國的貢獻追蹤了幾乎相同的關聯方交易。
There seems to be a little bit of the gap, seems to be, I think, expanding a little bit over the last quarter.
我認為,上個季度的差距似乎有所擴大。
And maybe related to that, you have a very strong bookings in the last quarter.
也許與此相關的是,上個季度的預訂量非常強勁。
And this quarter, the booking actually come down a little bit, but the licensing revenue actually was stronger than you expected.
這個季度,預訂量實際上有所下降,但授權收入實際上比您預期的要強。
Was that the result of some of that earlier commencement of that licensing contracts that is probably signed a little bit earlier in the year maybe in the prior quarter?
這是一些較早開始的許可合約的結果嗎?這些許可合約可能是在今年早些時候簽署的,或者是在上個季度簽署的?
And is that the more of a timing that kind of surprised you to the upside?
這是一個讓你感到驚訝的時機嗎?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Yeah, so first on the on the related parties.
是的,首先是關聯方。
So yeah, typically, China has been most all of it.
所以,是的,通常情況下,中國是其中最主要的部分。
We did have an additional license deal that was roughly 5% of the total revenue, I guess, is difference between Arm China and the rest.
我們確實有一份額外的授權協議,大約佔總收入的 5%,我想,這是 Arm 中國和其他公司之間的區別。
That deal did come through this quarter.
該交易確實在本季完成。
And so you're right, that's not something that's been continuous, but was a deal that came in this last quarter.
所以你是對的,這不是持續的事情,而是上個季度達成的一項交易。
In terms of the makeup of license revenue in general, we typically run somewhere around 40% to 50% of our license revenue is from backlog.
就許可證收入的整體組成而言,我們通常大約 40% 到 50% 的許可證收入來自積壓訂單。
The deals previously sign that relate to technology milestones that are delivered within the quarter.
先前簽署的交易與本季內交付的技術里程碑相關。
And then the remainder are new deals that are signed within the quarter.
其餘的則是本季內簽署的新交易。
Clearly, we have good visibility into backlog and what our delivery is going to be.
顯然,我們對積壓訂單和交貨情況有很好的了解。
And we have a pretty good insight into renewals or deals that have relatively long lead times.
我們對交貨時間相對較長的續約或交易有很好的洞察力。
I think the one thing that we saw a little bit unique, both last quarter and this quarter, is with the increased kind of focus in AI.
我認為上個季度和本季我們看到的有點獨特的一件事是對人工智慧的關注度不斷提高。
And there just is a lot of focus on investing and building designs in AI.
人們非常關注人工智慧的投資和建構設計。
And so there's been some shorter-cycle deals that have come up, kind of say, a little bit unique versus what we've seen in the past.
因此,出現了一些週期較短的交易,可以說,與我們過去看到的交易相比,有些獨特。
And that's the primary reason why we do need to spend a little more time this quarter to get our arms around how much of that momentum will we continue to see next year.
這就是為什麼我們確實需要在本季度多花一點時間來了解明年我們將繼續看到多少這種勢頭的主要原因。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Does that answer your question?
這是否回答你的問題?
Charles Shi - Analyst
Charles Shi - Analyst
Yes, thanks.
對了謝謝。
If I may add that the China piece, your IP peers seems to be a little more cautious about what's going to happen, I mean, in this year and actually, kind of cautious we have started that late last year, but your China revenue still going very strong.
如果我可以補充一點,中國的部分,你們的知識產權同行似乎對將要發生的事情更加謹慎,我的意思是,今年,實際上,我們從去年年底開始就持謹慎態度,但你們的中國收入仍然變得非常強勁。
How do your reconcile the differences here?
您如何調和這裡的差異?
I mean this was my last question.
我的意思是這是我的最後一個問題。
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
I wouldn't say that we are less cautious.
我不會說我們不那麼謹慎。
I think our numbers have been strong.
我認為我們的人數一直很強勁。
But from a forecast perspective, we've been forecasting that China likely goes down into the teens as a percentage of total revenue.
但從預測的角度來看,我們一直預測中國佔總收入的比例可能會下降到十幾歲。
This last quarter and the quarter before, we have just seen stronger recovery than we had previously expected.
上個季度和前一個季度,我們剛剛看到了比我們之前預期更強勁的復甦。
And that's been certainly a nice positive surprise.
這無疑是一個正面的驚喜。
In terms of going forward, we feel good about the progress we expect to deliver this quarter.
就未來而言,我們對本季預期取得的進展感到滿意。
In 90 days, we'll let you know if we think that progress is going to continue into this year.
90 天后,如果我們認為這項進展會持續到今年,我們會通知您。
Charles Shi - Analyst
Charles Shi - Analyst
Appreciate the color, thanks.
欣賞一下顏色,謝謝。
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Matt Ramsay, TD Cohen.
馬特·拉姆齊,TD·科恩。
Matt Ramsay - Analyst
Matt Ramsay - Analyst
Thank you very much, guys, good afternoon.
非常感謝你們,夥伴們,下午好。
I wanted to go back to the Armv9 conversation on a couple of points.
我想回到 Armv9 的討論中來談幾點。
I noticed that this is the first time in -- maybe I'm just dumb and didn't see it -- but I think this is the first time you had explicitly put in the shareholder letter and in writing that you were at least double royalty rates from v8 to v9.
我注意到這是第一次——也許我只是愚蠢,沒有看到這一點——但我認為這是你第一次明確地在股東信中並以書面形式表明你至少是雙倍的版稅率從v8 到v9。
And I wanted to ask about that in a broader sense that is that sort of across the board, across end markets, and also, across customers that are traditionally processor licensees and also ones that are traditionally architectural licensees and do the systems themselves?
我想從更廣泛的意義上問這個問題,即全面、跨終端市場,以及跨傳統處理器授權持有者和傳統架構授權持有者以及系統本身的客戶?
I guess that's the first part of the question, is that blanket statement across the board?
我想這是問題的第一部分,這是全面的聲明嗎?
And the reason I ask it is if you go back to lots of conversations around the IPO time frame, there were some aggressive ramps of royalty rates across your mobile business.
我問這個問題的原因是,如果你回顧 IPO 期間的大量對話,你會發現你的行動業務的特許權使用費率出現了一些激進的上升。
And I think we were all trying to figure out whether the v8 penetration to v9 would drive those kind of expansion and results or if you would need some significant contributions from sort of system license and the like to get those results?
我認為我們都在試圖弄清楚 v8 向 v9 的滲透是否會推動這種擴展和結果,或者您是否需要係統許可證等方面的一些重大貢獻才能獲得這些結果?
So any context there about the applicability and breadth of that comment on doubling royalty rates on v9 would be really helpful.
因此,有關 v9 特許權使用費加倍的評論的適用性和廣度的任何背景都將非常有幫助。
Thanks, guys.
多謝你們。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah, thanks, Matt.
是的,謝謝,馬特。
So I'll attempt to answer it and let Jason, if Jason wants to chime in.
所以我會嘗試回答這個問題並讓傑森(如果傑森願意插話的話)。
Yes, you're right.
你是對的。
This is the first time we've done it, although we only have done two of these letters, so we don't have a huge installed base to refer to.
這是我們第一次這樣做,雖然我們只完成了其中的兩個字母,所以我們沒有龐大的安裝基礎可供參考。
We wanted to provide some specific clarity, because we had been receiving some level of questions around the you just asked about relative to how to think about v8 versus v9.
我們希望提供一些具體的說明,因為我們一直收到一些圍繞您剛才提出的問題,涉及如何看待 v8 和 v9。
The double the v9 rate for the equivalent -- double v8 for the equivalent v8 is sort of a rough guidepost, but in some cases, it's quite a bit more.
同等 v9 的兩倍——同等 v8 的兩倍 v8 是一種粗略的指導方針,但在某些情況下,它要多得多。
The Neoverse royalty rates have their own unique tables.
Neoverse 版稅費率有自己獨特的表格。
The automotive royalty rates have their own unique tables.
汽車特許權使用費有其獨特的表格。
And some of the most high performance CPUs that we ship into the client section have a very, very significant lifted rates over version eight.
我們運送到客戶端部分的一些最高效能 CPU 比版本 8 有非常非常顯著的提升。
So double is a good rule of thumb for like-for-like, but some cases, it's even better than that.
因此,對於同類來說,雙倍是一個很好的經驗法則,但在某些情況下,它甚至比這更好。
So that's -- but we did want to sort of provide some clarity, because we thought when folks look at the numbers in the absence of that context, there would just be a question of just help me work out how you got here.
所以,但我們確實想提供一些清晰的信息,因為我們認為,當人們在沒有這種背景的情況下查看這些數字時,就會出現一個問題,那就是幫助我弄清楚你是如何到達這裡的。
So Jason, something you wanted to add on to that?
傑森,你想補充點什麼嗎?
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
Jason Child - CFO & EVP
No, I think to Rene's earlier point, we're -- I understand we're a little bit hard to model, because we don't really track to other companies.
不,我認為就雷內之前的觀點而言,我們——我知道我們有點難以建模,因為我們並沒有真正跟踪其他公司。
And because of -- we're getting paid royalties on roughly 8 billion chips a quarter, and just a slightest bit of mix either to more premium handsets or to more v9 versus v8, that turns out to be a pretty sensitive variable.
因為——我們每個季度都會獲得大約 80 億顆晶片的特許權使用費,並且只有一點點混合到更高端的手機或更多的 v9 與 v8,結果證明這是一個非常敏感的變數。
And when you look at the growth from last quarter to this quarter, what we're expecting from this quarter to next quarter, unit growth is very, very small.
當你看看從上個季度到本季的成長時,我們預計從本季到下個季度,單位成長非常非常小。
It's really almost all coming from rate growth increases.
這實際上幾乎全部來自利率成長。
And as we said back at IPO, we are almost 100% on contract for next year.
正如我們在 IPO 時所說,我們明年的合約幾乎 100% 簽訂。
So really, we're just seeing the manifestation of the work that was done in the last two years.
事實上,我們只是看到了過去兩年所做工作的表現。
We wanted to provide this the v8 to v9 ratio as one way to help you guys be able to kind of see the progress and be able to model it.
我們希望提供 v8 與 v9 的比率,作為幫助你們能夠看到進展並能夠對其進行建模的一種方式。
So I hope it's helpful.
所以我希望它有幫助。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
(multiple speakers) I can say that one thing that we have high confidence in when we start looking at the transition was v8, v9, we knew we had increased rates, and we knew that the royalty picture would be better than what we were clustered in the past.
(多個發言者)我可以說,當我們開始考慮過渡時,我們非常有信心的一件事是v8、v9,我們知道我們的費率有所提高,而且我們知道版稅圖片會比我們聚集的圖片更好在過去。
I think one of the benefits we're getting and would use AI sort of a driver for all this is that the amount of the v9 cores or the mix of v9 quarters has been stronger than anticipated, because people are putting more CPUs down where they were not planning on putting as many or they may be putting a higher mix of v9 and v8.
我認為我們所獲得的好處之一是,我們將使用人工智慧作為所有這一切的驅動因素,即v9 核心的數量或v9 季度的混合比預期更強,因為人們將更多的CPU 放在他們需要的地方。我們不打算放那麼多,或者他們可能會放更多的 v9 和 v8 混合。
So that's all driven, I think good forward momentum for us.
所以這一切都是驅動力,我認為這對我們來說是良好的前進動力。
Matt Ramsay - Analyst
Matt Ramsay - Analyst
Super helpful, guys.
非常有幫助,夥計們。
Just a quick clarification.
只是快速澄清一下。
Any comment on -- the base rates may be different and obviously, different customers have different contracts, but all of that commentary at least directionally applicable to you architectural licensees as well?
任何評論 - 基本費率可能不同,顯然,不同的客戶有不同的合同,但所有這些評論至少也直接適用於您的建築許可持有者?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yes.
是的。
Yes, it is.
是的。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Gardiner, Citi.
安德魯·加德納,花旗銀行。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Thanks very much for taking the question, I had one on the licensing side.
非常感謝您提出這個問題,我在許可方面有一個問題。
You guys have spoken about how strong it was in the quarter and being surprised at the quicker sales cycle time on some of these licenses.
你們已經談到了本季的強勁表現,並對其中一些許可證的銷售週期更快感到驚訝。
A point that you haven't brought up on the call yet, but that was in the shareholder letter, that you must have missed.
您在電話會議上尚未提出這一點,但在股東信中,您一定錯過了這一點。
So three of the five ATA licensees in the quarter, the upgrades from the Arm flexible access program -- and you said that was the first time that had happened.
因此,本季度五個 ATA 被許可人中的三個進行了 Arm 靈活訪問計劃的升級,您說這是第一次發生。
Did that take you by surprise?
這讓你感到驚訝嗎?
Or were these customers that were getting to be particularly large for an AFA and so it was natural for them to upgrade?
或者這些客戶對 AFA 來說變得特別大,因此他們升級是很自然的嗎?
If it wasn't a surprise, is there something that might actually continue to surprise positively?
如果這不是一個驚喜,是否有什麼東西可能會繼續帶來正面的驚喜?
Is there a portion of that cohort that sort of natural to be upgrading from AFA to ATA, and therefore, contribute more in terms of license dollars?
該群體中是否有一部分人自然地從 AFA 升級到 ATA,因此在許可費用方面做出了更多貢獻?
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Yeah, thank you for the question.
是的,謝謝你的提問。
We didn't bring it up in our comments.
我們沒有在評論中提出這一點。
We've had a lot of good stuf to talk about quarter, I was trying to keep it as concise.
我們有很多關於本季的好東西可以討論,我試著保持簡潔。
But the AFA transition to ATA -- thank you for calling that out, that's a great trend for us.
但是 AFA 向 ATA 的過渡——感謝您指出這一點,這對我們來說是一個很好的趨勢。
And when we designed the program a number of years ago, that was absolutely the intent.
幾年前,當我們設計該程式時,這絕對是我們的意圖。
It is that customers that launched into an AFA would ultimately go on to a total excess license.
加入 AFA 的客戶最終將獲得完全超額許可。
What largely drives that, quite frankly, is the time that the AFA start to get commercial traction in new business, some of the AFA customers are early-stage companies.
坦白說,很大程度上推動這一趨勢的是 AFA 開始在新業務中獲得商業吸引力的時間,AFA 的一些客戶是早期公司。
They may have an early exit or get acquired.
他們可能會提前退出或被收購。
But as they get larger and mature, we expect them to embrace Arm technology in a broader way.
但隨著它們變得更大、更成熟,我們期望它們以更廣泛的方式擁抱 Arm 技術。
So I wouldn't call it a surprise, I would actually call it an expected outcome that we have and we're really happy to see it.
所以我不會稱之為意外,實際上我會稱之為我們的預期結果,我們真的很高興看到它。
It is great.
太好了。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
I would now like to turn the conference back to Rene Haas for closing remarks.
現在我想請雷內·哈斯 (Rene Haas) 致閉幕詞。
Sir?
先生?
Rene Haas - CEO
Rene Haas - CEO
Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for the kind words on the quarter and good set of questions that we had.
謝謝你們,也謝謝大家對本季的客氣話以及我們提出的一系列好問題。
We are thrilled about Q3, and we're very, very excited about Q4.
我們對第三季感到非常興奮,對第四季也非常非常興奮。
I think what you're seeing coming to life are all the strategies that we've been working hard on over the last number of years; investment in the v9 technology; the diversification of our business into data center, into automotive, and of course, IoT; and then now the -- what I think is probably most profound opportunity in our lifetimes, which is around AI.
我認為你所看到的一切都是我們在過去幾年裡一直在努力製定的策略;對v9技術的投資;我們的業務多元化到資料中心、汽車,當然還有物聯網;然後現在——我認為這可能是我們一生中最深刻的機會,這是圍繞著人工智慧的。
And I think regarding AI, particularly, you think about artificial general intelligence, that's going to drive the need for more compute in a way that we've never seen before.
我認為就人工智慧而言,特別是通用人工智慧,這將以我們以前從未見過的方式推動對更多運算的需求。
So as good as the last couple of quarters where, we're just at the beginning.
與過去幾個季度一樣,我們才剛剛開始。
I could not be more excited about the growth that we had going forward.
我對我們未來的發展感到非常興奮。
And thank you for all your time and questions.
感謝您抽出寶貴的時間並提出問題。