Arm 最近舉行了 25 財年第二季的收益電話會議,討論了其強勁的財務業績。他們強調了對其計算平台的需求增長,以及與主要科技公司的合作夥伴關係以及 v9 技術的採用。儘管許可收入下降,但該公司報告總收入超出預期,為未來成長提供了積極的前景。
在電話會議期間,Arm 還討論了與高通正在進行的訴訟,並強調他們致力於透過 Access to Arm 計畫擴大其產品組合。他們預計,在 NeoVerse 技術採用的推動下,特許權使用費將持續成長,特別是在網路和資料中心業務領域。 Arm 對 v9 技術在各行業日益採用的充滿信心,並對人工智慧、智慧型手機、個人電腦和汽車領域的未來機會持樂觀態度。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Arm second-quarter fiscal year 2025 webcast and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jeff Kvaal, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎觀看 Arm 2025 財年第二季網路廣播與電話會議。 (操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,投資者關係主管 Jeff Kvaal。請繼續。
Jeff Kvaal - Head of Investor Relations
Jeff Kvaal - Head of Investor Relations
Thank you very much. Welcome to our earnings conference call for the second quarter of fiscal '25 ending September 30, 2024. On the call today are Rene Haas, the Chief Executive Officer of Arm; and Jason Child, Arm's Chief Financial Officer. During the call, Arm will discuss forecasts, targets and other forward-looking information regarding the company and its financial results.
非常感謝。歡迎參加我們截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的 25 財年第二季財報電話會議。和 Arm 財務長 Jason Child。在電話會議期間,Arm 將討論有關公司及其財務表現的預測、目標和其他前瞻性資訊。
While these statements represent our best current judgment of future results and performance as of today, our actual results are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to these risks that we may highlight during the call, important risk factors that may affect our future results and performance are described in our registration statement on Form 20-F with the SEC. Arm assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. We will refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the discussion. Reconciliations of certain of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as a discussion of certain projected non-GAAP financial measures that we are not able to reconcile without unreasonable efforts and supplemental information can be found in our shareholder letter.
雖然這些陳述代表了我們目前對未來業績和業績的最佳判斷,但我們的實際結果受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。除了我們在電話會議中可能強調的這些風險之外,我們向 SEC 提交的 20-F 表的註冊聲明中還描述了可能影響我們未來業績和業績的重要風險因素。 Arm 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們將在討論中提及非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計準則財務指標中的某些與最直接可比的公認會計準則財務指標的調節,以及對某些預計的非公認會計準則財務指標的討論,如果沒有不合理的努力和補充信息,我們就無法對這些指標進行調節,可以在我們的股東中找到信。
The shareholder letter and other earnings-related materials are now available on our website at investors.arm.com. And with that I'll turn the call over to Rene. Rene?
股東信函和其他與收益相關的資料現已在我們的網站 Investors.arm.com 上提供。然後我會將電話轉給雷內。雷內?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. It's been now about one year since our IPO. And I'm very proud to tell you that in that year, we have exceeded all of our expectations on execution of our growth strategies. The demand for AI everywhere is increasing the demand for Arm's Compute platform.
謝謝傑夫,大家下午好。自從我們首次公開募股以來已經大約一年了。我非常自豪地告訴大家,在那一年,我們在執行成長策略方面超出了所有預期。無所不在的人工智慧需求正在增加對 Arm 運算平台的需求。
To date, now since our history, over 300 billion Arm chips have been shipped. Now in the past quarter, we had a good set of results and exceeding the high end of the guidance. We had record royalty revenue, up 23% year-on-year as adoption of v9 increases. We had continued strong Licensing revenue, showing that our customers are continuing to invest in the future of AI in an AI ever evolving world.
迄今為止,自我們成立以來,Arm 晶片的出貨量已超過 3000 億顆。在過去的一個季度,我們取得了良好的業績,並且超出了指導的上限。隨著 v9 採用率的增加,我們的特許權使用費收入年增了 23%。我們的授權收入持續強勁,這表明我們的客戶在不斷發展的人工智慧世界中繼續投資於人工智慧的未來。
The long-term growth drivers for our business remains consistent. Every modern digital chip being designed needs a CPU and the vast majority of these chips are being designed with Arm because of the unequaled software ecosystem. Now more specifically on royalty revenue growth, really being driven now by more value per chip. In the quarter, Version9 now represents 25% of royalty revenue compared to 10% a year ago.
我們業務的長期成長動力保持一致。每個正在設計的現代數位晶片都需要一個 CPU,並且由於無與倫比的軟體生態系統,絕大多數這些晶片都是使用 Arm 設計的。現在更具體地說是版稅收入的成長,現在實際上是由每個晶片的更多價值推動的。在本季度,Version9 現在佔版稅收入的 25%,而一年前為 10%。
More importantly, in the past quarter, our Royalty Revenue for smart-phones grew 40%. This is versus 4% unit growth in the past quarter, a significant delta. We had new announcements, one of them being Apple's new iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro on Arm Version9, and MediaTek announced their newest chipset, the Dimensity 9400 using Arm's v9 CSS for client, our first CSS shipping in the mobile sector. We've now doubled the number of CSS licenses in this past year.
更重要的是,在上個季度,我們的智慧型手機版稅收入成長了 40%。與上一季 4% 的單位成長率相比,這是一個顯著的增量。我們發布了新的公告,其中之一是基於Arm Version9 的蘋果新款iPhone 16 和iPhone 16 Pro,聯發科技發布了他們最新的晶片組,即使用Arm v9 CSS 的天璣9400 客戶端,這是我們在行動領域推出的首款CSS。去年,我們的 CSS 授權數量增加了一倍。
It goes without saying that AI is everywhere. Arm is the only compute platform that can run AI from the edge to the cloud. AI is driving demand for our performance and power efficient compute platform everywhere, some significant milestones. NVIDIA's Grace Blackwell shipments have started integrating the NVIDIA GPU Blackwell with Arm CPU in Grace.
不言而喻,人工智慧無所不在。 Arm 是唯一可以從邊緣到雲端運行 AI 的運算平台。人工智慧正在推動各地對我們的效能和節能運算平台的需求,這是一些重要的里程碑。 NVIDIA 的 Grace Blackwell 出貨量已開始在 Grace 中將 NVIDIA GPU Blackwell 與 Arm CPU 整合。
We've had new shipments now from Microsoft Azure Cobalt and Google GCP Axion, both Armv9 based data center now in general availability. Significant milestone. In the past quarter, Arm and Meta worked together on optimizing Llama 3.2 using Arm's libraries, enabling faster on-device AI processing. In the automotive market, we're seeing a very strong pipeline for CSS now for both ADAS and IVI applications.
我們現在收到了來自 Microsoft Azure Cobalt 和 Google GCP Axion 的新出貨,這兩個基於 Armv9 的資料中心現已全面上市。重要的里程碑。在過去的季度中,Arm 和 Meta 共同使用 Arm 的庫來優化 Llama 3.2,從而實現更快的設備上 AI 處理。在汽車市場,我們現在看到針對 ADAS 和 IVI 應用的 CSS 管道非常強大。
And in general, demand for Edge AI products for CPU acceleration of v9 is very strong. We have the largest software ecosystem ever invented. Hardware is nothing without the software, and we have over 20 million software developers, the largest in the world. We're working closely with important ecosystem partners like GitHub, who just recently announced the integration of Arm Tools in the GitHub Copilot, a significant milestone for developers.
而且整體來說,Edge AI產品對v9的CPU加速的需求非常強烈。我們擁有有史以來最大的軟體生態系統。沒有軟體,硬體就毫無意義,我們擁有超過 2,000 萬名軟體開發人員,是世界上最多的。我們正在與 GitHub 等重要的生態系統合作夥伴密切合作,GitHub 最近剛宣布將 Arm Tools 整合到 GitHub Copilot 中,這對開發人員來說是一個重要的里程碑。
The future is very bright. AI will be everywhere, and it will run on Arm. And with that, I will hand over to Jason.
未來是非常光明的。人工智慧將無所不在,並將在 Arm 上運作。接下來,我將把工作交給傑森。
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Rene. Q2 has continued our strong start for fiscal year '25. Total revenue was $844 million, which was above the top end of our guided range. Royalty revenue was $514 million, which grew 23% year-over-year and matched our highest royalty revenue quarter to date. Our Q2 royalty revenue growth was driven by continued Armv9 adoption and the start of CSS deployments.
謝謝你,雷內。第二季延續了 25 財年的強勁開局。總收入為 8.44 億美元,高於我們指導範圍的上限。版稅收入為 5.14 億美元,年增 23%,與我們迄今為止季度最高的版稅收入相當。我們第二季的版稅收入成長是由 Armv9 的持續採用和 CSS 部署的開始推動的。
As with last quarter, royalty revenue from smartphone significantly outperformed smartphone shipments. Smartphone royalties increased approximately 40% year-over-year compared with mid-single-digit increase in the number of smartphones sold, mainly due to smartphone application processors being increasingly Armv9 based with a higher royalty rate. In addition, we continue to gain share in automotive applications and with cloud service providers. However, this growth is partially offset by continued weakness in industrial, given the ongoing inventory correction in that part of the semiconductor industry, as indicated last quarter, and widely reported by many of our semiconductor customers.
與上季一樣,智慧型手機的特許權使用費收入明顯超過智慧型手機的出貨量。與智慧型手機銷售中個位數成長相比,智慧型手機專利費年增約 40%,這主要是由於智慧型手機應用處理器越來越多地基於 Armv9,專利費率更高。此外,我們繼續獲得汽車應用和雲端服務提供者的份額。然而,這一增長被工業領域的持續疲軟所部分抵消,因為正如上季度所示,我們的許多半導體客戶廣泛報告了半導體行業該部分的持續庫存調整。
Licensing revenue declined 15% year-over-year to $330 million, which was better than our expectations, which was for a 25% decline. License revenue varies quarter-to-quarter due to the normal fluctuations in timing and the size of multiple high-value license agreements and contributions from backlog. Because of this, we recommend that you look at annualized contract value, or ACV, to best understand the underlying license growth rate. ACV in Q2 was up 13% year-over-year, which is consistent with recent quarters. Remaining performance obligations, or RPO, was up 10% sequentially as we had a very strong bookings quarter. Some of this RPO will be recognized as revenue later this year.
授權收入年減 15% 至 3.3 億美元,優於我們預期的下降 25%。由於多個高價值許可協議的時間和規模以及積壓的貢獻的正常波動,許可收入每季都會有所不同。因此,我們建議您查看年化合約價值 (ACV),以便更好地了解潛在的許可證成長率。第二季 ACV 年成長 13%,與最近幾季的情況一致。由於我們的預訂季度非常強勁,剩餘履約義務 (RPO) 環比增長了 10%。其中部分 RPO 將在今年稍後確認為收入。
Turning now to guidance, I will briefly touch on both third quarter and fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. This guidance reflects our current view of our end markets and our licensing pipeline. For Q3, we expect revenue between $920 million and $970 million, which at the midpoint, represents revenue growth of 15% year-over-year. Investment in our next generation of technologies are on track, and we expect our non-GAAP operating expense to be around $525 million. We expect our non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.32 and $0.36.
現在轉向指導意見,我將簡要介紹截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的第三季和財年。對於第三季度,我們預計營收在 9.2 億美元至 9.7 億美元之間,中間值意味著營收年增 15%。我們對下一代技術的投資正在步入正軌,我們預計我們的非 GAAP 營運費用約為 5.25 億美元。我們預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 0.32 美元至 0.36 美元之間。
Looking out to fiscal year '25, we are reiterating our guidance for revenue, cost and profit. We expect revenue to be between $3.8 billion and $4.1 billion, which represents an 18% to 27% year-over-year increase. At the midpoint of our revenue guidance, this includes full year royalty revenue growth in high teens. We expect that our revenue growth from smartphones will continue to be driven by Armv9 based chips becoming a greater proportion of the mix, with CSS ramping over the next couple of quarters.
展望 25 財年,我們重申對收入、成本和利潤的指導。我們預計營收將在 38 億美元至 41 億美元之間,年增 18% 至 27%。在我們收入指引的中點,這包括全年特許權使用費收入的成長。我們預計,基於 Armv9 的晶片將繼續推動智慧型手機收入的成長,並在未來幾季中 CSS 不斷成長。
We also expect to continue to gain share in cloud and automotive. Feedback from our customers leads us to expect sequential growth in networking in both Q3 and Q4, while IoT is not expected to recover until next year. Strong demand for our latest technologies will continue to drive license revenue for the rest of the year. We have kept the range for full year revenue guidance the same as last quarter at plus or minus $150 million as we have some large licensing deals in funnel.
我們也預計將繼續增加雲端和汽車領域的份額。客戶的回饋使我們預計第三季和第四季網路業務將持續成長,而物聯網預計要到明年才會恢復。對我們最新技術的強勁需求將繼續推動今年剩餘時間的授權收入。我們將全年營收指引保持在正負 1.5 億美元的範圍內,與上季相同,因為我們有一些大型授權交易正在進行中。
Although the timing of these deals and the shape of the revenue recognition is not yet clear, we do expect all these deals to close. We do expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $2.05 billion, which represents a 19% year-over-year increase and is unchanged from our prior guidance. As we continue to invest in R&D to support future growth initiatives, we expect operating expenses to ramp consistently through the year. We expect our full year non-GAAP EPS guidance of between $1.45 and $1.65.
儘管這些交易的時間和收入確認的形式尚不清楚,但我們確實預計所有這些交易都會完成。我們確實預計非 GAAP 營運費用約為 20.5 億美元,年增 19%,與我們先前的指引保持不變。隨著我們繼續投資研發以支持未來的成長計劃,我們預計營運支出將全年持續成長。我們預計全年非 GAAP 每股盈餘指引將在 1.45 美元至 1.65 美元之間。
With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call.
這樣,我會將電話轉回接線生進行電話的問答部分。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Andrew Gardiner, Citi.
(操作員指示)Andrew Gardiner,花旗銀行。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Rene, Jason, I was hoping you could shed a little light on a topic that you didn't touch on in your prepared remarks. There have been myriad press reports regarding your working relationship and litigation with Qualcomm. I believe the case is still due in court next month, and you have reportedly canceled Qualcomm's architecture license recently both, I think, as they plan to ship a greater volume of product based on the Nuvia designs and also ahead of the court case. Can you comment on the veracity of these reports.
雷內、傑森,我希望你們能夠對你們在準備好的發言中沒有觸及的話題做一些闡述。關於您與高通的工作關係和訴訟的新聞報導有無數。我相信該案仍將在下個月開庭審理,據報道,你們最近取消了高通的架構許可,我認為,因為他們計劃在法庭審理案件之前運送更多基於 Nuvia 設計的產品。您能否評價一下這些報道的真實性?
And I suppose, specifically on numbers, are there any issue with your revenue recognition and operating expenses into the coming periods related to these actions? Do you have to reduce rev rec, will OpEx rise on increased legal costs? I know it's tricky to talk about legal things, but if you can shed any light on that, I'm sure it would be helpful.
我想,特別是在數字方面,與這些行動相關的未來時期的收入確認和營運支出是否存在任何問題?您是否必須降低收入,營運支出是否會因法律成本增加而上升?我知道談論法律問題很棘手,但如果您能對此有所了解,我相信這會有所幫助。
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Yes, happy to. So I'll address what I can as it is an ongoing litigation. There isn't a great deal I can say on it. But at a base level, contractual consent was required by Qualcomm to sign a Nuvia license, and that consent was not obtained. As a result of not obtaining that consent, they are in breach. And what we did was sent a notification letter regarding cancellation of the architectural license. And to be clear to your question, we have not canceled the license, but we have sent a notification to them.
當然。是的,很高興。因此,我將盡力解決,因為這是一場正在進行的訴訟。我對此沒什麼好說的。但在基本層面上,高通需要合約同意才能簽署 Nuvia 許可證,但並未獲得該同意。由於未獲得同意,他們就違約了。我們所做的是發送了一封關於取消建築許可證的通知信。為了明確你的問題,我們沒有取消許可證,但我們已向他們發送了通知。
Now getting consent for an assignment is fundamental for our license agreements. And as a result, we need to ensure fairness and protecting Arm ecosystem who rely on these license agreements. On the financials, I'll let Jason maybe chat on the OpEx. But regarding the revenue, our forecast and guidance has always taken into consideration that we may not prevail in this case so we have essentially taken that forward look. So Jason, i don't know if there's any comment you want to make on the expense side?
現在,取得轉讓同意是我們授權協議的基礎。因此,我們需要確保公平性並保護依賴這些授權協議的 Arm 生態系統。關於財務方面,我可能會讓 Jason 談談營運支出。但就收入而言,我們的預測和指導始終考慮到我們可能不會在這種情況下獲勝,因此我們基本上採取了前瞻性的眼光。那麼Jason,我不知道您對於費用方面是否有什麼想說的呢?
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
No, there isn't any change in, I think, some of the changes you pointed out, rev-rec expenses like that. No, there's no changes because at this point, as Rene said, and as I think we said actually back at IPO and consistent since then, is our forecast assumes that we're going to get paid existing ALA royalty rates. So until something changes, there won't be any increase or change in those rates.
不,我認為,你指出的一些變化,例如轉速記錄費用,沒有任何變化。不,沒有任何變化,因為在這一點上,正如雷內所說,而且我認為我們實際上在IPO 時說過,並且自那時以來一直保持一致,我們的預測假設我們將獲得現有的ALA特許權使用費率。因此,在發生變化之前,這些費率不會有任何增加或變化。
Operator
Operator
Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.
哈蘭‧蘇爾,摩根大通。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
So now that we're midway through your fiscal year, the upside in your business through the first half been coming from Licensing, right? This is, in my view, the best forward indicator of your pipeline, your growth prospects, and it looks like licensing for the full year will come in better versus your view even 90 days ago. So this quarter, backlog was up percent sequentially; book-to-bill, 1:7, so very strong. I assume you're driving more value uplift per renewal. It looks like you've seen some add-on licensing activity.
現在您的財年已進入中期,您上半年業務的成長來自於許可,對嗎?在我看來,這是您的管道、成長前景的最佳前瞻性指標,而且看起來全年的許可將比您 90 天前的觀點更好。因此,本季度,積壓訂單季增了 10%;訂單到帳單比例為 1:7,非常強勁。我認為每次續訂您都會帶來更多的價值提升。您似乎已經看到了一些附加許可活動。
As you mentioned, Rene, CSS engagements are strong. Bookings were originally expected to be lower this year versus last year. But just given the strong design activity by your customers, requirements for more compute capability per program, visibility on renewals for the remainder of the year, can the team grow its backlog for this fiscal year?
正如你所提到的,Rene,CSS 的參與度很高。最初預計今年的預訂量將低於去年。但是,考慮到客戶的強勁設計活動、每個程式對更多運算能力的要求、今年剩餘時間的續訂可見性,團隊能否增加本財年的積壓訂單?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I would say, a couple of things that we're observing in the marketplace. We've talked about the demand for Arm technology being quite strong given the ecosystem and the overall increased demand for Arm technology. I think when we look at what's going on with AI and when you think about AI, it's not just training in the data center, but it's inference in the data center, it's inference across different parts of the overall value chain, the network, the automobile, the PC, the mobile phone, the wearable, which can be kind of what people would call the edge. We're seeing an increased demand for compute resources to run these agents and run these small language models or large language models on top of compute requirements that they already have.
是的。我想說的是,我們在市場上觀察到的一些事情。我們已經討論過,考慮到生態系統以及對 Arm 技術的整體需求增加,對 Arm 技術的需求相當強勁。我認為,當我們看看人工智慧正在發生什麼時,當你想到人工智慧時,它不僅僅是在資料中心進行訓練,而且是在資料中心進行推理,它是跨整個價值鏈、網路、汽車、個人電腦、手機、穿戴式設備,這些都可以被人們稱為邊緣。我們看到對計算資源的需求不斷增加,以運行這些代理並在現有的計算需求之上運行這些小型語言模型或大型語言模型。
So what that's driving is, I think, an increase for us that we're seeing across the board for R&D and innovation to capture this platform opportunity. So we're seeing pretty broad licensing demand across candidly, all the markets and all the sectors. And you're right, it's stronger than we had, I think, originally communicated and anticipated. It's a very good forward indicator for the strength of the business and also for the strength of the royalties going forward.
因此,我認為,這對我們來說是推動力,我們看到研發和創新全面成長,以抓住這個平台機會。因此,我們坦率地看到所有市場和所有部門都存在相當廣泛的授權需求。你是對的,我認為它比我們最初溝通和預期的要強大。這是衡量業務實力以及未來特許權使用費實力的一個非常好的前瞻性指標。
In addition, as mentioned, we've doubled the number of CSS licenses now over the year. That's also been, I think, stronger than we anticipated. We did, as I mentioned in the opening remarks, announced MediaTek's first chip design using CSS. So I think it's a combination of increased compute demand, AI and also the CSS. I don't know, Jason, if there's anything you want to add on to that?
此外,正如前面提到的,今年以來我們的 CSS 授權數量增加了一倍。我認為,這也比我們預期的還要強。正如我在開場白中提到的,我們確實宣布了聯發科首款使用 CSS 的晶片設計。所以我認為這是計算需求增加、人工智慧和 CSS 的結合。我不知道,傑森,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I think you asked, Harlan, if there's a way to increase our backlog. I would say, certainly, based on the strength that we've seen, yes. In fact, if you look at the license revenue kind of implied guidance, I think we're up about 45% higher this year than what was our plan back at IPO. So we have seen strength. Now our forecast now is I don't think there probably will be significant increase to backlog. But again, hard to say.
是的。哈倫,我想你問過是否有辦法增加我們的積壓工作。我想說,當然,根據我們所看到的實力,是的。事實上,如果你看一下許可收入類型的隱含指導,我認為今年我們比 IPO 時的計畫高出約 45%。所以我們看到了實力。現在我們的預測是,我認為積壓訂單可能不會大幅增加。但話又說回來,很難說。
The large deals that we have coming later this year, there's some impact there. But then, of course, that's going to be offset by some kind of the amortization or recognition of milestones that will be delivered in the next quarter or so. So overall, I wouldn't count on that being the driver. I think the real focus is really the royalty growth and the 23% year-on-year growth that we saw in the quarter, which we're particularly excited about.
我們今年稍後即將達成的大型交易會產生一些影響。但是,當然,這將被下個季度左右交付的某種里程碑攤銷或認可所抵消。所以總的來說,我不會指望那是司機。我認為真正的焦點是特許權使用費增長以及我們在本季度看到的 23% 的同比增長,對此我們感到特別興奮。
Operator
Operator
Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.
羅斯·西莫爾,德意志銀行。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Going to stick on the licensing side of things. Rene and Jason, you guys talked about, I think, signing six new ATAs and then I think, more than doubled the CSS side of things. Is there a TAM that is larger now? I think originally, you talked about ATAs having somewhere around 50 potential licensees. It seems like that number must be growing if you're upwards of 40 already.
堅持許可方面的事。 Rene 和 Jason,我想,你們談到了簽署 6 個新的 ATA,然後我認為,CSS 方面的數量增加了一倍多。現在有更大的 TAM 嗎?我想最初,您談到 ATA 擁有大約 50 個潛在的被許可人。如果你已經超過 40 歲了,這個數字似乎還在增加。
So how do we think about the potential future growth there? And if that has to slow eventually before it hands over to being such a good precursor for the royalty side of things in the future?
那麼我們該如何看待那裡未來的潛在成長呢?如果這種情況最終必須放緩,才能成為未來版稅的良好先驅?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, I think the way to maybe think about it is one of the opportunities we have with ATA is to expand the portfolio and size, if you will. ATA's grant access to Arm technology, in a broad sense, in other words, a broad portfolio of IP and also a broad set of rights in terms of how many chips to build and tape out in a year. We can scale that to different variations, i.e., smaller set of IP and/or reduce number of tape-outs, but still give additional value to end customers because they get a larger suite than they might on a single instance. In theory, I think the majority of our customer base can move to some version of ATA.
嗯,我認為,如果你願意的話,我們與 ATA 合作的機會之一就是擴大產品組合和規模。從廣義上講,ATA 授予使用 Arm 技術的權利,換句話說,是廣泛的 IP 組合,以及一年內製造和流片數量的廣泛權利。我們可以將其擴展到不同的變體,即更小的 IP 集和/或減少流片數量,但仍然為最終客戶提供額外的價值,因為他們獲得的套件比單個實例更大。理論上,我認為我們的大多數客戶群都可以遷移到某些版本的 ATA。
And the reason for that is customers love the concept because it addresses a number of things. They know they're going to use the Arm technology. Number two, having their engineers have access to the broad set of IP allows them to do a lot of experimentation and evaluation in a very easy way. And thirdly, they can now essentially fix their costs on an R&D forward cycle since they know they're going to be purchasing the IP anyway.
原因是客戶喜歡這個概念,因為它解決了很多問題。他們知道他們將使用 Arm 技術。第二,讓他們的工程師能夠存取廣泛的 IP,使他們能夠以非常簡單的方式進行大量實驗和評估。第三,他們現在基本上可以解決研發前週期的成本,因為他們知道無論如何都會購買智慧財產權。
So what that ends up meaning for Arm is it's pretty much broader upside because less churn on deals because they candidly are more repeatable. And also, by having a broader set of IP available, what we find is engineers end up using more. So to your question, I think the vast majority of our customer base can ultimately go to some version of ATA. And given the broad set of IP that's used in ATA, I think that's going to drive higher royalties in the future.
因此,這最終對 Arm 來說意味著它具有更廣泛的優勢,因為交易的流失更少,因為坦白說,它們更具可重複性。而且,透過擁有更廣泛的可用 IP,我們發現工程師最終會使用更多 IP。對於你的問題,我認為我們的絕大多數客戶群最終都會選擇 ATA 的某個版本。考慮到 ATA 中使用的廣泛 IP,我認為這將在未來推動更高的版稅。
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Maybe just a couple of things to add. I think in the past, we had said that we probably about 80% of our think of our license revenue and license fees as probably ATA working well for them. I think we said in this last quarter, we're now kind of in the over 50% range. The one thing I think we've said in the past, just to make sure it's clear is with ATA, the annual costs or price increase is roughly 7% per year.
是的。也許只需要補充幾件事。我想在過去,我們曾說過,我們可能有大約 80% 的人認為我們的授權收入和授權費用可能是 ATA 對他們來說效果很好。我想我們在上個季度說過,我們現在處於超過 50% 的範圍內。我認為我們過去說過的一件事(只是為了確保清楚)是 ATA,每年的成本或價格上漲約為 7%。
And then those contracts, on average, are somewhere around three-ish years. And so even once everyone is an ATA, you're still going to have renewals and you're still going to have the annual increases. And then of course, as we deploy and release new technologies and expand the product offering, then of course, you can also upsize as well. So I think we're quite a ways from reaching the TAM, and there's multiple kind of points of growth to expand that TAM.
這些合約平均為期三年左右。因此,即使每個人都成為 ATA,您仍然需要續訂,並且每年都會增加。當然,隨著我們部署和發布新技術並擴大產品範圍,您當然也可以擴大規模。所以我認為我們距離達到 TAM 還有很長的路要走,並且有多種增長點可以擴展 TAM。
Operator
Operator
Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya,美國銀行證券公司。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
A few questions on the royalty business. I think you have changed this year's contribution to, I think, high teens growth from low 20s and then mid-20s and I imagine that's all the cycle, but if there's any other color, I would appreciate that.
關於特許權使用費業務的幾個問題。我認為你已經改變了今年對青少年高成長的貢獻,從20多歲到20多歲,我想這就是整個週期,但如果有任何其他顏色,我將不勝感激。
But the other kind of related question is v9 contribution to royalties kind of stalled at 25%. I thought the plan was to continue to expand that every quarter by 5 points. And since smartphone is kind of the biggest contributor of that and your smartphone business is growing very nicely, like over 2 times the pace, I would have thought the conversion would go on. So I was just hoping you could give more color on why did v9 conversion kind of stall in this quarter? And then the overall royalty growth, what is the need to take it down?
但另一個相關問題是 v9 對版稅的貢獻停滯在 25%。我認為計劃是繼續每季擴大 5 個百分點。由於智慧型手機是其中最大的貢獻者,而且您的智慧型手機業務成長得非常好,大約是成長速度的兩倍以上,因此我以為轉換會繼續下去。所以我只是希望你能提供更多關於為什麼 v9 轉換在本季度停滯不前的信息?那麼整體的特許權使用費成長,有什麼必要把它拉下來呢?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So let me take the first part of that question, Vivek. I'll address both the v9 transition, and then I want to make an important point regarding how to think about pricing inside the v9 envelope and then let Jason talk about the specifics. But first off, the adoption of v9 is going very, very well. We're seeing very, very strong uptick of it in mobile. All of our NeoVerse products are v9 and we're now starting to see the transition of it in Automotive and IoT.
是的。所以讓我回答這個問題的第一部分,Vivek。我將討論 v9 的過渡,然後我想就如何考慮 v9 範圍內的定價提出一個重要觀點,然後讓 Jason 談談具體細節。但首先,v9 的採用進展非常非常順利。我們看到它在行動領域的成長非常非常強勁。我們所有的 NeoVerse 產品都是 v9,我們現在開始看到它在汽車和物聯網領域的轉變。
And I mentioned in the opening comments that we've now seen the first shipments from Apple that are v9. So we're very, very happy with the rate of adoption. And I think if you looked at the adoption rates on a quarter-to-quarter basis, it may not look linear, but it will definitely be increasing quarter-over-quarter-over-quarter when we start looking at it on a multi-quarter basis. That being said, I think there's a very important distinction that I want to make regarding how to think about royalties during the time that the v9 architecture is ramping. In contrast to version 7 and version 8 which, by the way, by way of reference, those architectures tend to have a life of approximately 10 years in terms of their peak run rate.
我在開場評論中提到,我們現在已經看到 Apple 的第一批發貨是 v9。所以我們對採用率非常非常滿意。我認為,如果您按季度查看採用率,它可能看起來不是線性的,但當我們開始從多方面考慮時,它肯定會逐季度增加。話雖這麼說,我認為在 v9 架構不斷發展期間如何考慮版稅方面,我想做一個非常重要的區別。順便說一句,作為參考,與版本 7 和版本 8 相比,這些架構的峰值運行率的壽命往往約為 10 年。
During version 7 and version 8, once the royalty rates were fixed for that version, there was very little delta throughout the period, meaning that as those versions reached maturity in terms of saturation, the royalty growth would asymptote. That's not going to be the case with v9 and there's two primary reasons for that. Reason one is that generation on generation, we introduced multi year improvements in the technology and multiyear improvements in terms of the product, meaning that when we deliver a product, let's say, for a phone that goes into production in 2025, and then we delivered the v9 version for a phone that goes into production in 2026, because the product is better, 15% better, let's say, on performance and power, we're able to drive better value-based pricing for that solution.
在版本 7 和版本 8 期間,一旦該版本的版稅費率固定,整個期間幾乎沒有增量,這意味著隨著這些版本達到飽和成熟度,版稅增長將漸近。 v9 不會出現這種情況,有兩個主要原因。原因之一是,一代又一代,我們在技術方面進行了多年的改進,在產品方面也進行了多年的改進,這意味著當我們交付產品時,比如說,一款將於2025 年投入生產的手機,然後我們交付了v9 版本的手機將於2026 年投入生產,因為該產品更好,比方說,在性能和功耗方面提高了15%,我們能夠為該解決方案推動更好的基於價值的定價。
So during v9, even though the royalty rates are increasing from version 8 to Version9, we're going to see continued increases throughout the life of version 9 even as version 9 adoption increases. Secondly, in version 9, we've also introduced CSS, which we've mentioned several times, carries a higher royalty rate, in some cases, double, if not more, of what a standard version 9 core would be. So as a result, as we see growth in version 9 adoption, the royalty growth track higher than it has traditionally. And again, it's for those 2 factors. Number one, the value-based pricing that sees an increase because of the better economics delivered. And secondly, more of a transition to CSS.
因此,在 v9 期間,儘管版稅率從版本 8 到版本 9 不斷增加,但隨著版本 9 採用率的增加,我們將看到在版本 9 的整個生命週期中持續增加。其次,在版本 9 中,我們還引入了 CSS,我們已經多次提到過,它具有更高的版稅率,在某些情況下,是標準版本 9 核心的兩倍(如果不是更多)。因此,當我們看到版本 9 採用率的成長時,版稅成長軌跡將高於傳統水準。再說一次,這是為了這兩個因素。第一,基於價值的定價由於經濟效益的提高而有所增長。其次,更多的是向 CSS 的轉換。
With that, Jason, if you have any comments, I think maybe we answered the extent of that question.
傑森,如果您有任何意見,我想也許我們已經回答了這個問題的範圍。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Srini Pajjuri, Raymond James.
(操作員說明)Srini Pajjuri,Raymond James。
Srinivas Pajjuri - Analyst
Srinivas Pajjuri - Analyst
My question is on the networking and data center business. Rene, I think that accounted for about 10% of your mix in the last 12 months. Obviously, a lot of momentum on the data center front and then you have CSS products potentially ramping at some point in the next 12 months. So I'm just trying to understand how important of a driver that could be for the next 12 months, both from, I guess, a royalty standpoint and also from a licensing standpoint?
我的問題是關於網路和資料中心業務的。 Rene,我認為這在過去 12 個月裡佔了你們組合的 10% 左右。顯然,資料中心的發展勢頭強勁,CSS 產品可能會在未來 12 個月的某個時刻出現成長。所以我只是想了解一個驅動程式在未來 12 個月中的重要性,我想無論是從版稅的角度還是從許可的角度?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So let me talk about the macro, and I'll let Jason address the numbers piece. I think the adoption of NeoVerse in the network and data center is going to mean very, very strong trajectory for Arm, not just in the 12 months, but over the next number of years. Two components to that. For general-purpose compute, we now obviously have had Graviton in production for many years.
是的。那麼讓我來談談宏,然後讓 Jason 來談談數字部分。我認為 NeoVerse 在網路和資料中心的採用對於 Arm 來說意味著非常非常強勁的發展軌跡,不僅是在 12 個月內,而且在接下來的幾年裡。其中有兩個組成部分。對於通用計算,我們顯然已經將 Graviton 投入生產多年。
And with Microsoft Azure on Cobalt and Google GCP with Axion, general purpose compute, they are now general availability, which means now instances can be purchased by end users. And based upon the type of deployment we've seen with Graviton, we're very excited about the opportunity there, both with Azure and GCP on these chips. So for general-purpose compute, we're expecting to see very, very good results, driven primarily by the fact that the power and efficiency is anywhere between 50% to 60% better than compared to x86. In addition, we are seeing, as I mentioned in the opening, demand for NVIDIA's advanced training and inference chip, Grace Blackwell, which uses the Arm CPU Grace as part of that overall solution.
借助 Cobalt 上的 Microsoft Azure 和具有 Axion 通用運算功能的 Google GCP,它們現已全面上市,這意味著最終用戶現在可以購買執行個體。根據我們在 Graviton 上看到的部署類型,我們對這些晶片上的 Azure 和 GCP 的機會感到非常興奮。因此,對於通用計算,我們預計會看到非常非常好的結果,這主要是因為功率和效率比 x86 好 50% 到 60%。此外,正如我在開場白中提到的,我們還看到對 NVIDIA 高級訓練和推理晶片 Grace Blackwell 的需求,該晶片使用 Arm CPU Grace 作為整體解決方案的一部分。
One of the benefits of that solution being introduced in the data center is that many of the base OS and workloads that are required for a general-purpose cluster are also used on this AI cluster, meaning there is a lot of leverage between using Arm in the data center for general purpose compute and using it for an AI training or inference center. There's a lot of software reuse. So as a result, we believe that from an overall TCO standpoint, that will accelerate adoption of Arm to data center, which we're very excited about. So I'll let Jason talk about the numbers and the mix.
在資料中心引入此解決方案的好處之一是,通用叢集所需的許多基本作業系統和工作負載也在此 AI 叢集上使用,這意味著在使用 Arm 之間存在很大的優勢。計算的資料中心,並將其用於人工智慧訓練或推理中心。有很多軟體重複使用。因此,我們相信,從整體 TCO 的角度來看,這將加速 Arm 在資料中心的採用,我們對此感到非常興奮。所以我會讓傑森談談數字和組合。
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, in terms of the data infrastructure and data center market, we do expect networking to continue to be slow. But the data center side, and specifically the cloud compute market for all the reasons that Rene just mentioned, it has been strong. We do expect it to accelerate throughout the back half of the year as the deployments of both Cobalt and Axion continue to ramp as well as some of the other custom silicon chips from other makers that are also continuing to ramp. So we do expect that to accelerate.
是的,就資料基礎設施和資料中心市場而言,我們確實預期網路將繼續緩慢。但資料中心方面,特別是雲端運算市場,由於雷內剛才提到的所有原因,它一直很強勁。我們確實預計,隨著 Cobalt 和 Axion 的部署繼續增加,以及其他製造商的其他一些客製化矽晶片的部署也在繼續增加,這一趨勢將在今年下半年加速。所以我們確實預期這種情況會加速。
Operator
Operator
Lee Simpson, Morgan Stanley.
李‧辛普森,摩根士丹利。
Lee Simpson - Analyst
Lee Simpson - Analyst
I just wanted to go back to licensing again. And really just trying to understand what contributed in particular to that better-than-expected licensing here. And maybe how does this relate to the RPO number? It looks as though it's down a couple of percentage points year-on-year.
我只是想再次回到許可領域。實際上只是想了解是什麼特別促成了這裡的許可好於預期。也許這與 RPO 數字有什麼關係?看起來比去年同期下降了幾個百分點。
So how do we think about the growth going through the rest of this year? Do we still think we can track to a $1.7 billion number? And have we perhaps pulled forward some of the licensing deals into this quarter?
那我們該如何看待今年剩餘時間的成長呢?我們仍然認為我們可以追蹤到 17 億美元的數字嗎?我們是否可能將一些授權交易推遲到本季?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Lee. So first, I would say, no, we don't foresee any sort of pull forwards. In terms of the upside, I think it was about $35 million higher than the guide, which I think we have guided to a 25% decrease. We actually had a 15% decrease. And again, a decrease is mostly because of a tough comp with a couple of really large deals that were lapped a year ago.
謝謝,李。首先,我想說,不,我們預計不會有任何形式的推動。就上行空間而言,我認為比指導值高出約 3500 萬美元,我認為我們的指導值下降了 25%。我們實際上減少了 15%。同樣,下降的主要原因是一年前完成的幾筆大型交易的艱難競爭。
In terms of the reduction year-on-year in RPO, well, we happen to have the all-time record a year ago, and we actually have the second highest quarter was this quarter, because it actually stepped up sequentially 10%. So it's actually a pretty nice increase. And as you know, earlier this year, we had a fairly large amount of RPO that effectively amortized into revenue from a large deal signed last year. So overall, I think the RPO trend has been very, very healthy.
就 RPO 同比下降而言,我們恰好在一年前創下了歷史記錄,實際上第二高的季度是本季度,因為它實際上比上一季增長了 10%。所以這實際上是一個相當不錯的增長。如您所知,今年早些時候,我們有相當大量的 RPO,有效地攤銷到去年簽署的一項大交易的收入中。總的來說,我認為 RPO 趨勢非常非常健康。
But yes, I wouldn't expect that I think the range that you indicated for end of the year is still probably a reasonable range. And so I think other than what we've included in the guidance on the deals that we expect to close in Q4. At this point, we don't have line of sight to any significant deals beyond those. Obviously, if something changes, we'll let you guys know.
但是,是的,我不認為您指出的年底範圍仍然可能是一個合理的範圍。因此,我認為除了我們預期在第四季度完成的交易指南中包含的內容之外。目前,我們還沒有看到除這些之外的任何重大交易。顯然,如果有任何變化,我們會通知大家。
Operator
Operator
[Yanko Venta], Arete Research.
[Yanko Venta],Arete 研究。
Yanko Venta - Analyst
Yanko Venta - Analyst
I just want to get back to the announcement of MediaTekâ and smartphones. How do you see the adoption of CSS in smartphones and trending through this year into next year? Could we see 50% of the market in the next few years?
我只想回到聯發科和智慧型手機的發布。您如何看待 CSS 在智慧型手機中的採用以及今年到明年的趨勢?未來幾年我們能看到50%的市佔率嗎?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thank you for the question. I think so because when we think about what the value proposition of CSS, it's really about reducing time to market and increasing overall confidence in the design and performance. One of the hallmarks of the mobile phone market, as I'm sure you know, is the fact that the product cycle is rather relentless. They're on an annual cadence.
是的。謝謝你的提問。我這麼認為是因為當我們思考 CSS 的價值主張時,它實際上是為了縮短上市時間並提高對設計和性能的整體信心。我相信您知道,手機市場的標誌之一是產品週期相當無情。他們每年都有節奏。
It's not very forgiving in terms of when units need to be available, whether it's aligning with MWC or Single's Day in China. So with a very relentless product cycle, combined with these new smartphone chips are becoming more and more complex, these application processors. And then they're also being built in the most advanced geometries at the fabs which have longer manufacturing cycle times. Anything you can do to improve the time it takes the design a chip is welcomed.
無論是與 MWC 還是中國的光棍節保持一致,在何時需要提供單位方面都不是很寬容。因此,隨著非常無情的產品週期,加上這些新的智慧型手機晶片變得越來越複雜,這些應用處理器。然後,它們也在製造週期時間較長的工廠中以最先進的幾何形狀建造。歡迎您採取任何措施來縮短晶片設計時間。
So when we introduced CSS, we had a bit of skepticism, whether it would be applicable for the mobile phone market, but what we've actually seen is very, very good adoption. So in summary, yes, can we get to 50% of the market? I believe so because there's real value being delivered on a product that can move months off the development time in what typically is a very, very severe and relentless product cycle.
因此,當我們引入 CSS 時,我們對它是否適用於手機市場有一點懷疑,但我們實際上看到的是非常非常好的採用。綜上所述,是的,我們能拿到50%的市佔率嗎?我相信是這樣,因為產品能夠提供真正的價值,可以將開發時間縮短數月,而這通常是一個非常非常嚴格和無情的產品週期。
Operator
Operator
Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.
克里斯·桑卡爾,TD·考恩。
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - Analyst
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - Analyst
I had a quick question on China. It seems like the smartphone mix is shifting towards the entity there in the Android market. Are you seeing any meaningful impact to your China royalties? And also, what is the penetration of v9 in China today?
我有一個關於中國的簡短問題。智慧型手機組合似乎正在轉向 Android 市場的實體。您認為您的中國特許權使用費受到任何有意義的影響嗎?另外,目前 v9 在中國的滲透率是多少?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thank you for the question. We've definitely seen strength in the overall handset numbers in China due to the reasons that you had just mentioned. I think the local brands there, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo are all seeing very, very good growth. Our team just participated in an Oppo product launch last month.
是的。謝謝你的提問。由於您剛才提到的原因,我們確實看到了中國手機總體數量的增長。我認為那裡的本土品牌,小米、Oppo、Vivo 都看到了非常非常好的成長。我們的團隊上個月剛參加了 Oppo 產品發表會。
So number one, growth has been strong there. I think there is an allegiance towards the local brands. And in the premium flagship market, as we get into the next year or so, that's all version 9, and that's also going to find its way into the midrange. So China Android yes, strong. And also, the vast majority of the products now are going to be moving to version 9. The high end already is all there.
第一,那裡的成長強勁。我認為人們對本土品牌有忠誠度。在高階旗艦市場,當我們進入明年左右的時候,這都是版本 9,而且也將進入中端市場。所以中國Android是的,很強。而且,現在絕大多數產品都將轉向版本 9。
Operator
Operator
John DiFucci, Guggenheim Securities.
約翰‧迪福奇,古根漢證券公司。
John DiFucci - Analyst
John DiFucci - Analyst
Rene, thanks for that explanation you gave on the v9 mix and the related variables that are going to affect royalties going forward. That was really helpful to think about some of that. But shouldn't we expect to continue to see that v9 mix grow? And if not, what would cause it not to grow? Is it just, I don't know, a temporary macro issue?
Rene,感謝您對 v9 組合以及將影響未來版稅的相關變數所做的解釋。思考其中的一些確實很有幫助。但我們不應該期望看到 v9 組合繼續成長嗎?如果不是,什麼會導致它不生長?我不知道,這只是暫時的宏觀問題嗎?
AI, you guys are obviously benefiting. NVIDIA, there's some others out there, the cloud vendors, but we really haven't seen it like in a lot of other places. And I'm just curious, could there be, at least, people just stepping back and let's just catch up in our minds like to see how this is going? Or I don't know, I'm just trying to figure out how to model this going forward. Like what's sort of implied in guidance?
AI,你們顯然受益匪淺。 NVIDIA,還有其他一些雲端供應商,但我們確實沒有像在許多其他地方那樣看到它。我只是很好奇,是否至少有人會退後一步,讓我們回想一下事情的進展?或者我不知道,我只是想弄清楚如何對此進行建模。例如指導中暗示了什麼?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you for the question. No, it's actually going to be quite predictable. As we said, it was 10% a year ago, 25%. Now I can guarantee you, it will not be 25% a year from now. It will be considerably higher than that. So if you step in and say, okay, well, what is really driving that? I think you're going to see more version 9 in PCs as more Windows and Arm products are introduced in the market, as more vendors introduce chips.
謝謝你的提問。不,這實際上是可以預見的。正如我們所說,一年前是 10%,25%。現在我可以向你保證,一年後不會是25%。它將比這個高得多。因此,如果你介入並說,好吧,那麼到底是什麼推動了這種情況?我認為,隨著市場上推出更多 Windows 和 Arm 產品,以及更多供應商推出晶片,您將在 PC 中看到更多版本 9。
That's a given, number one. Number two, what you will see in the mobile phone space is a very classic waterfall of what existed in the flagship will find its way in the midrange and what was in the midrange, will find it's way in the low end. That's a very natural evolution of products. It happens every single time. It's going to happen this time.
這是一個給定的第一。第二,你將在手機領域看到的是一個非常經典的瀑布,旗艦產品中存在的東西將在中端中找到它的方式,而中端中存在的東西將在低端中找到它的方式。這是產品的一個非常自然的演變。它每次都會發生。這次一定會發生。
So a year from now, I would expect now that the majority of the mobile phones will be version 9. Everything we do in the data center, everything we do in the data center is version 9. So what will really be the slowest of the products to come to market will be the automotive sector, and that's really driven by just the time lag it takes for those products to be introduced, particularly around IVI and ADAS. But we know the pipeline. We've got CSS activity in particular there.
因此,一年後,我預計大多數手機將是版本 9。產品將是汽車行業,這實際上是由這些產品推出所需的時間滯後推動的,特別是在IVI 和ADAS 方面。但我們知道管道。我們在那裡特別進行了 CSS 活動。
So when we have this call a year from now, hopefully, again, and then we'll look at the numbers. But I'll guarantee you, we'll be way ahead of 25% for the reasons I gave.
因此,當我們一年後再次接到這個電話時,希望能再次接到電話,然後我們會看看這些數字。但我向你保證,由於我給的原因,我們將遠遠領先 25%。
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
John, just to add on modeling complexity of v9 penetration. So if you look specifically at the most recent quarter, where it was flat quarter-on-quarter, the primary reason why was because the mid-market had higher growth in the quarter in smartphones, the mid market doesn't have v9 yet, it hasn't waterfall yet to be v9. And so as a result, it looks like v9 installed and it really has more to do with the kind of where the growth in the market turned out to be in this most recent quarter. So over time, that stuff all shakes out, as Rene said. But you will have some maybe trends like we saw in this last quarter to this quarter, but I don't think going to sustain.
John,只是為了增加 v9 滲透的建模複雜性。因此,如果你具體看最近一個季度,季度環比持平,主要原因是中端市場在本季度智慧型手機的成長較高,中階市場還沒有 v9, v9 之前還沒有瀑布。因此,它看起來像是安裝了 v9,而且它確實與最近一個季度的市場成長有更多關係。因此,正如雷內所說,隨著時間的推移,這些東西都會消失。但你可能會看到一些趨勢,就像我們在上個季度到本季看到的那樣,但我認為不會持續下去。
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
We tend to have Arm's products anywhere between a 3- to 5-year visibility on when they how up. And that's because the licenses have been done years ago. And we have very good line of sight with the chip vendors in terms of when they're going to increase the products, and we have very good line of sight with the OEMs when they plan to take it.
我們傾向於對 Arm 的產品進行 3 到 5 年的觀察,以了解它們的表現。那是因為許可證已經在幾年前完成了。我們對晶片供應商何時增加產品有很好的了解,當 OEM 廠商計劃增加產品時我們也有很好的了解。
So don't read too much in terms of the quarter-to-quarter thing. We have extremely good visibility in terms of where they're going to land and the trend is only going forward.
因此,不要過度閱讀季度與季度的數據。我們對它們將在哪裡著陸有非常好的可見性,並且趨勢只會向前發展。
Operator
Operator
Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.
Toshiya Hari,高盛。
Toshiya Hari - Analyst
Toshiya Hari - Analyst
Rene, I was hoping to get your thoughts, your forward outlook on the PC and smartphone markets. AI PC so far have been relatively underwhelming relative to expectations at the beginning of the year or maybe at Computex. AI really hasn't catalyzed a replacement cycle in smartphones either.
Rene,我希望了解您的想法以及您對個人電腦和智慧型手機市場的前瞻性展望。相對於年初或台北國際電腦展的預期,到目前為止,AI PC 的表現相對平淡。人工智慧實際上也沒有促進智慧型手機的更換週期。
I know you guys are not so dependent on units because you've got things like v9 and CSS growing your royalty rate. But given your visibility that you just spoke to in terms of what your customers are working on, when do you expect volumes across pieces and smartphones to grow? Is it a '25 dynamic? Is it more of a '26 dynamic? And I think at one of the conferences, you spoke to a 50% market share goal in PCs over the long run. Is that still the aspirational goal for you guys?
我知道你們並不那麼依賴單位,因為你們有 v9 和 CSS 之類的東西來提高你們的版稅率。但考慮到您剛才談到的客戶正在做什麼的可見性,您預計各件和智慧型手機的銷售何時會成長?這是25年的動態嗎?它更像是 26 年的動態嗎?我認為在一次會議上,您談到了 PC 領域 50% 的長期市佔率目標。這仍然是你們渴望的目標嗎?
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Sure. Answering your last question first, absolutely, and I stand by that prediction. When we think about the Windows ecosystem, it's really all about filling out a broad lineup of SKUs. If you go into a retailer today, you'll see that there's thin-and-light machines, low-end machines, mid-price machines, gaming laptops, et cetera, et cetera. I think what we're going to need to see, and we will see it because we have great line of sight in terms of people working on multiple chips in multiple areas, is a filling out of that SKUs.
是的。當然。首先絕對回答你的最後一個問題,我支持這個預測。當我們考慮 Windows 生態系統時,其實就是要充實廣泛的 SKU 陣容。如果您今天走進零售商,您會看到有輕薄機、低端機、中價機、遊戲筆記型電腦等等。我認為我們需要看到的是,我們將會看到它,因為我們對在多個領域從事多種晶片工作的人員有很好的視野,是對 SKU 的填充。
So I think when you start to see thin and light devices at an entry price point based on Arm with a different chipset, you'll see growth. When you see a gaming laptop that has Arm inside, which by the way, will be compelling if and when that comes out, I think you'll see growth. So we're pretty confident in terms of the next couple of years in terms of growth in the PC market.
因此,我認為,當您開始看到基於 Arm 且具有不同晶片組的入門價輕薄設備時,您就會看到增長。當你看到一款內建 Arm 的遊戲筆記型電腦時(順便說一句,如果它問世的話,它將會很引人注目),我認為你會看到增長。因此,我們對未來幾年個人電腦市場的成長充滿信心。
Now whether that's related to AI demand, I think what's important is that these PCs are equipped with the horsepower required to run the AI applications. I think it's early days in terms of the definition of an AI PC relative to the value prop. But I wouldn't get so hung up on that. What we typically see with these types of cycles is that you've got more technology in there, then you need to take advantage of the applications and then it flips the other way around. So this is being largely future-proofed. But broadly speaking, yes, we're pretty bullish about the demand, and I definitely stick to my prediction on growth of Windows on Arm.
現在無論這是否與人工智慧需求有關,我認為重要的是這些個人電腦配備了運行人工智慧應用程式所需的馬力。我認為相對於價值支柱而言,人工智慧 PC 的定義還處於早期階段。但我不會那麼著迷於此。我們通常在這些類型的循環中看到的是,你擁有更多的技術,然後你需要利用應用程序,然後它會反過來。所以這在很大程度上是面向未來的。但總的來說,是的,我們對需求非常樂觀,而且我絕對堅持我對 Arm 上 Windows 成長的預測。
Operator
Operator
I will now hand the call back to Rene Haas, CEO, for closing remarks.
現在,我將把電話轉回給執行長雷內·哈斯 (Rene Haas),讓其致閉幕詞。
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you. And thank you, everyone, for the questions and the interest in what we're doing. Again, to summarize, now our fifth conference call since we've been a public company, and we've been consistently beating the expectations of what we have told you that we were going to do the prior quarter. I think more broadly, though, what you're seeing with Arm and our strategies, as I said in the opening, really coming to life. We've talked many, many times about the resiliency of our business, the growth of v9, the increased royalty rates.
謝謝。感謝大家提出的問題以及對我們正在做的事情的興趣。再次總結一下,這是我們成為上市公司以來的第五次電話會議,我們一直超出我們告訴您的上一季要做的事情的預期。不過,我認為,從更廣泛的角度來看,正如我在開場白中所說,您所看到的 Arm 和我們的策略確實變得栩栩如生。我們已經多次談論過我們業務的彈性、v9 的成長以及特許權使用費的增加。
And when you see a royalty growth in a market where units, for example, in smartphones are up 4%, and we're up 40%, that's a great proof point that the strategy we've put in place are working. The future is incredibly bright. For all the questions that came up regarding automotive, the data center, AI, smartphones, PCs, we're very fortunate to be able to talk about exciting opportunities in all those verticals, all of them that are using Arm and all of them are going to grow in the future. So thank you very much, and I appreciate all the questions and comments.
當你看到一個市場的特許權使用費成長時,例如智慧型手機的單位成長了 4%,而我們成長了 40%,這就是一個很好的證據,證明我們制定的策略正在發揮作用。未來是極為光明的。對於出現的有關汽車、資料中心、人工智慧、智慧型手機、個人電腦的所有問題,我們非常幸運能夠談論所有這些垂直領域中令人興奮的機會,所有這些垂直領域都在使用Arm,而且所有這些領域都在未來將會成長。非常感謝你們,我感謝所有的問題和評論。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。