Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Arm 舉行了 25 財年第一季的收益電話會議,報告了創紀錄的收入增長以及許可和特許權使用費收入的強勁表現。他們提供了第二季和全年的指導,預計收入將年增 18-27%。 Arm 強調授權和特許權使用費收入的成長機會,特別是在人工智慧採用以及與大公司的合作夥伴關係方面。該公司對未來的成長潛力保持樂觀,並專注於 Armv9 的採用和新產品的發布。

儘管半導體行業存在一些疲軟,但 Arm 的授權業務仍然強勁,重點是追加銷售以製造具有人工智慧功能的設備。該公司的 CPU 和 GPU 產品在各個市場上都經歷了顯著的成長和需求,重點是每年為智慧型手機和個人電腦推出新產品。

Arm對人工智慧和運算領域的未來成長持樂觀態度,預計將年增20%左右。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Jeff Kvaal - IR

    Jeff Kvaal - IR

  • Thank you, and welcome to our earnings conference call for the first quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. On the call today are Rene Haas, Chief Executive Officer of Arm, and Jason Child, Arm's Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝,歡迎參加我們關於截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的財年第一季度的收益電話會議。

  • During the call, Arm will discuss forecasts, targets, and other forward-looking information regarding the Company and its financial results. While these statements represent our best current judgment of future results and performance as of today, our actual results are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to any risks that we highlight during the call, important risk factors that may affect our future results and performance are described in our registration statement on Form 20-F filed with the SEC on May 29, 2024.

    在電話會議期間,Arm 將討論有關公司及其財務表現的預測、目標和其他前瞻性資訊。雖然這些陳述代表了我們目前對未來業績和業績的最佳判斷,但我們的實際結果受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。除了我們在電話會議中強調的任何風險之外,我們在 2024 年 5 月 29 日向 SEC 提交的 20-F 表格登記聲明中還描述了可能影響我們未來業績和業績的重要風險因素。

  • Arm assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. We will refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the discussion. Reconciliation of certain of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as a discussion of certain projected non-GAAP financial measures that we are not able to reconcile without unreasonable efforts or supplemental financial information can be found in our shareholder letter. The shareholder letter and other earnings-related materials are available on our website at investors.arm.com.

    Arm 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務,這些聲明僅代表發布當日的情況。我們將在討論中提及非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則財務指標中的某些與最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標的調節,以及對某些預計的非公認會計原則財務指標的討論,如果沒有不合理的努力或補充財務信息,我們就無法對這些指標進行調節,可以在我們的股東信。股東信函和其他與收益相關的資料可在我們的網站 Investors.arm.com 上取得。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rene. Rene?

    然後,我會將電話轉給雷內。雷內?

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to be able to give you an update on our most recent quarter. We had our fourth straight quarter of record results, 39% year-on-year revenue, which exceeded the high end of the guidance. That was record license revenue up 70% year on year, as companies continue to invest in Arm for AI everywhere. We also had strong royalty revenue up 17% year on year as the V9 adoption increases.

    謝謝傑夫,大家下午好。我很高興能夠向您介紹我們最近一個季度的最新情況。我們連續第四個季度創紀錄的業績,營收年增 39%,超出了指導的上限。隨著各公司繼續投資 Arm for AI,許可證收入年增 70%,創歷史新高。隨著 V9 採用率的增加,我們的特許權使用費收入也較去年同期成長 17%。

  • Our long-term growth drivers remain consistent. Every chip being designed today requires a CPU, and these are being designed with Arm in mind with our strong tie-in to all the world's software. Now that has driven significant royalty revenue growth. More value per chip, V9 up to 25% now royalty revenue of overall that's up 20% from previous quarter. More importantly, our smartphone royalty revenue was up 50% year on year. That's against a single digit increase in units.

    我們的長期成長動力保持一致。如今設計的每個晶片都需要一個 CPU,這些晶片的設計都考慮到了 Arm,並與世界上所有的軟體緊密結合。現在,這推動了特許權使用費收入的大幅成長。每個晶片的價值更高,V9 現在佔總專利收入的 25%,比上一季成長了 20%。更重要的是,我們的智慧型手機版稅收入年增了 50%。這與單位數量的單位數增長相對應。

  • We are seeing AI everywhere, which is driving demand for Arm's performance and power efficient compute platform. We had recent announcements in the last quarter of Google's Axion on processor for the cloud, AWS Graviton4 general availability. We were very excited to see the announcement of the brand-new Windows on Arm PCs that run copilot, True AI PCs. And we also announced the Arm Ethos-U85 for Edge AI.

    我們看到人工智慧無所不在,這推動了對 Arm 效能和節能運算平台的需求。我們最近在上個季度宣布了 Google 的 Axion on 雲端處理器、AWS Graviton4 全面上市。我們非常高興看到運行副駕駛的全新 Windows on Arm PC、True AI PC 的發布。我們也發表了適用於 Edge AI 的 Arm Ethos-U85。

  • One of the significant strategies that we've been investing in has been compute subsystems. With our recent launch of CSS for client, we now have active CSS engagements in the major markets of mobile, laptop, cloud, and automotive. We are seeing demand for this technology everywhere. And this is all driven by the largest software ecosystem on the planet. Now, hardware, of course, is nothing without the software, and that's what made -- has made Arm the most ubiquitous processor in history.

    我們一直在投資的重要策略之一是計算子系統。隨著我們最近推出面向客戶端的 CSS,我們現在在行動、筆記型電腦、雲端和汽車等主要市場中積極參與 CSS。我們到處都看到這項技術的需求。而這一切都是由地球上最大的軟體生態系統所驅動的。當然,現在,如果沒有軟體,硬體就什麼都不是,這就是 Arm 成為史上最普遍的處理器的原因。

  • We now have over 20 million software developers, the largest in the world. And we've added KleidiAI software libraries, which will make it easier for developers to benefit from Arm compute platform. The future is very bright and will be built on Arm going forward. We are extremely pleased over the last four quarters. And again, if I look back to where we were a year ago and talking about whether Arm could be a growth company going forward to have four quarters of consistent growth after being a public company, I could not be more proud.

    我們現在擁有超過 2,000 萬名軟體開發人員,是世界上最多的。我們還添加了 KleidiAI 軟體庫,這將使開發人員更容易從 Arm 運算平台中受益。未來是非常光明的,並且將建立在 Arm 的基礎上。我們對過去四個季度感到非常滿意。再說一次,如果我回顧一年前的情況,並談論 Arm 是否可以成為一家成長型公司,並在成為上市公司後實現四個季度的持續增長,我會感到無比自豪。

  • And with that, I'll hand it over to Jason.

    這樣,我就把它交給傑森。

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Rene. Q1 was a great start for fiscal year '25. We grew revenue 39% year over year to $939 million. This was our highest ever quarterly revenue and was booked was above the midpoint of our guided range. Licensing revenue rose 72% year over year, and royalty revenue was up 17%. We also delivered a non-GAAP operating margin of 48%.

    謝謝你,雷內。第一季是 25 財年的良好開端。我們的營收年增 39%,達到 9.39 億美元。這是我們有史以來最高的季度收入,預訂量高於我們指導範圍的中點。授權收入年增 72%,特許權使用費收入較去年同期成長 17%。我們也實現了 48% 的非 GAAP 營業利潤率。

  • As always, license revenue is lumpy. We recommend that you look at annualized contract value or ACV to check the underlying growth rate. ACV in Q1 was up 14% year over year, consistent with recent quarters. Remaining performance obligations or RPO was up 29% year on year and down sequentially as we recognize revenue from achieving key delivery milestones from contracts signed in prior quarters.

    一如既往,授權收入不穩定。我們建議您查看年化合約價值或 ACV 以檢查基本成長率。第一季的 ACV 年成長 14%,與最近幾季的情況一致。剩餘履約義務或 RPO 年增 29%,環比下降,因為我們確認了前幾季度簽署的合約實現關鍵交付里程碑帶來的收入。

  • Our Q1 royalty revenue growth was driven by continued Armv9 adoption and the recovery in the smartphone market. Royalty revenue from smartphones increased more than 50% year over year, compared with the mid-single-digit increase in the number of smartphones sold. In addition, we continued to gain share in automotive and cloud service providers, and this is partially offset by continued weakness in IoT and networking equipment, given an ongoing inventory correction in the broader industrial markets as has been widely reported by many of our semiconductor peers.

    我們第一季特許權使用費收入的成長是由 Armv9 的持續採用和智慧型手機市場的復甦所推動的。智慧型手機的特許權使用費收入較去年同期成長超過 50%,而智慧型手機銷量的增幅僅為個位數。此外,我們在汽車和雲端服務供應商中的份額繼續增加,但鑑於許多半導體同行廣泛報道的更廣泛工業市場的庫存調整,物聯網和網路設備的持續疲軟部分抵消了這一份額。

  • Turning to guidance, I will briefly touch on both second quarter and the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. This guidance reflects our current view of our end markets. For Q2, we expect revenue between $780 million and $830 million, which at the midpoint represents steady year -- steady revenue year over year. As previously guided, we expect Q2 revenue to be the low point of the year due to the timing of revenue recognition from licensing.

    談到指導意見,我將簡要介紹第二季度和截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的財年。對於第二季度,我們預計營收在 7.8 億美元到 8.3 億美元之間,中間值代表穩定的一年——收入同比穩定。正如先前的指導,由於許可確認收入的時間,我們預計第二季收入將是今年的最低點。

  • However, we also expect Q2 to be one of our highest bookings quarters of the years. We expect year-over-year royalty revenue growth accelerate to the low 20% range in Q2. Investments in our compute platforms are on track, and we expect our non-GAAP operating results to be around $500 million. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.23 and $0.27, which is unchanged from our prior forecasts.

    然而,我們也預計第二季將成為我們多年來預訂量最高的季度之一。我們預計第二季特許權使用費收入年增率將加速至 20% 左右。我們對運算平台的投資正在步入正軌,我們預計我們的非 GAAP 營運績效將達到 5 億美元左右。我們預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 0.23 美元至 0.27 美元之間,與我們先前的預測相同。

  • Looking out to fiscal year '25, we are reiterating our revenue guidance. We expect revenues to be between $3.8 billion and $4.1 billion, which represents an 18% to 27% year-over-year increase. At the midpoint of our revenue guidance, this includes full year royalty revenue growth in the low 20% range. This is slightly below our prior expectation of the mid 20% range. Feedback from our customers suggests that inventory issues in the industrial IoT and networking seem to be more persistent than originally suggested. We expect the drivers of our healthy royalty revenue growth this year to be continued with V9 adoption. Share gains in cloud and automotive and the initial ramp of chips based on our compute subsystems in the second half.

    展望 25 財年,我們重申我們的收入指引。我們預計營收將在 38 億美元至 41 億美元之間,年增 18% 至 27%。在我們收入指引的中點,這包括全年特許權收入成長在 20% 的低範圍內。這略低於我們先前預期的 20% 中間範圍。我們客戶的回饋表明,工業物聯網和網路中的庫存問題似乎比最初建議的更持久。我們預計,隨著 V9 的採用,今年版稅收入的健康成長將繼續受到推動。下半年分享雲端和汽車領域的收益以及基於我們的計算子系統的晶片的初步增長。

  • We are increasingly optimistic about licensing revenue for the year. At the midpoint of our revenue guidance, we anticipate growth in the low to mid 20% range. We expect Q2 to be the smallest and Q4 to be the largest quarters of the year. We reiterate our outlook for ACV growth in the low double digits for the year, which reflects durable demand for Arm's latest IP.

    我們對今年的授權收入越來越樂觀。在我們收入指導的中點,我們預計成長將在 20% 的中低範圍內。我們預計第二季將是全年中最小的季度,第四季將是全年中最大的季度。我們重申對今年 ACV 成長的預期為低兩位數,這反映了對 Arm 最新 IP 的持久需求。

  • We have high visibility through a combination of backlog, renewals, and the pipeline of new licenses. As a reminder, licensing is a leading indicator of future royalty revenue opportunities. Licenses signed now will generate royalty revenues and two to three years' time. We expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $2.05 billion, which represents a 19% year-over-year increase. As we continue to invest in R&D to support future growth initiatives, we expect operating expenses to ramp consistently throughout the year. We reiterate our full year non-GAAP EPS guidance of between $1.45 and $1.65.

    透過積壓、續訂和新許可證管道的結合,我們擁有很高的知名度。提醒一下,授權是未來特許權使用費收入機會的領先指標。現在簽署的許可證將在兩到三年後產生特許權使用費收入。我們預計非 GAAP 營運費用約為 20.5 億美元,年增 19%。隨著我們繼續投資研發以支持未來的成長計劃,我們預計營運支出將全年持續成長。我們重申全年非 GAAP 每股盈餘指引為 1.45 美元至 1.65 美元。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back to Jeff.

    說完,我會把電話轉回給傑夫。

  • Jeff Kvaal - IR

    Jeff Kvaal - IR

  • Thank you, Jason. We'll now move forward with the Q&A portion of the program. Sharon?

    謝謝你,傑森。我們現在將繼續該計劃的問答部分。莎倫?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

    Vivek Arya,美國銀行證券公司。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. Rene, I was hoping you could help us draw a line between the licensing upside of today to the royalty upside of tomorrow. When I look back to during the IPO process, what you suggested for licensing, you have far exceeded that. But when do you think we will see that reflected in royalty upside in some commensurate manner? What is the right way you're going to help look at the conversion factor between licensing and royalties over time? Thank you.

    感謝您提出我的問題。雷內,我希望你能幫助我們在今天的許可優勢和明天的版稅優勢之間劃清界限。當我回顧 IPO 流程時,您建議的許可建議遠遠超出了這一範圍。但您認為我們什麼時候才能看到這一點以某種相應的方式反映在特許權使用費上漲上?隨著時間的推移,您將幫助了解許可和版稅之間的換算係數的正確方法是什麼?謝謝。

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you for the question. We are super pleased about the growth in the licensing business. The way to think about that growth is really around continued investment in R&D. That is essentially customers who are looking design their next-generation SSCs using Arm. What we are seeing, particularly with all things AI is an increase in licensing momentum. Maybe one way to think about that is the the AI workloads that some of these chips need to run. At the time, these chips were conceived, some of the models that they're being attacks are run whenever even invented yet.

    感謝你的提問。我們對許可業務的成長感到非常高興。思考這種成長的方式其實是圍繞著研發的持續投資。這基本上是希望使用 Arm 設計下一代 SSC 的客戶。我們所看到的是,特別是在人工智慧領域,授權勢頭正在增強。也許思考這個問題的一種方法是其中一些晶片需要運行的人工智慧工作負載。當時,這些晶片被構想出來,它們受到攻擊的一些模型甚至在發明時就可以運行。

  • Which kind of goes back to your time line question. From the time that we license a piece of IP to a customer and from the time that they put that into a chip and that chip goes into an end system and then ultimately into the customer's hands, can be anywhere between three and four years, and in some cases, even longer.

    哪一種又回到你的時間線問題了。從我們向客戶授權一個 IP 的時間,到他們將其放入晶片中,然後該晶片進入終端系統,然後最終到達客戶手中,可能需要三到四年的時間,並且在某些情況下,甚至更長。

  • I would say the mobile industry, the smartphones is probably the fastest at around three years-ish. But when you start looking at other markets like the data center and or automotive, that can be longer than that. So the way to think about all this increased licensing activity, I think is a very, very good predictor of further royalty growth. Increasingly, we are licensing more and more V9, obviously, but also more and more of these compute subsystems. And both V9 ovwe V8 and then compute subsystems over V9 carry significantly higher royalty rates. So all of this is a very good projection for the future.

    我想說的是行動產業,智慧型手機可能是最快的,大約需要三年左右。但當您開始關注資料中心和/或汽車等其他市場時,時間可能會更長。因此,我認為,考慮所有這些增加的授權活動的方式是對特許權使用費進一步增長的非常非常好的預測。顯然,我們越來越授權越來越多的 V9,而且也越來越多地授權這些計算子系統。 V9 比 V8 以及 V9 上的計算子系統都具有更高的專利費率。所以這一切都是對未來的一個非常好的預測。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lee Simpson, Morgan Stanley.

    李‧辛普森,摩根士丹利。

  • Lee Simpson - Analyst

    Lee Simpson - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for fitting me in. Rene, it is noticeable here that you've had a raft of good product releases recently. We've had the new Cortex-X925 CPU. We've had Immortalis cores. So there's quite a lot of activity going on here, a lot for you to be licensing. But I think somewhat unnoticed is there's quite a few CPU extensions that you've been putting out to market as well.

    偉大的。感謝您讓我加入。我們擁有新的 Cortex-X925 CPU。我們已經有了不朽核心。因此,這裡正在進行許多活動,有很多活動需要您獲得許可。但我認為有些人沒有註意到的是,您也已將相當多的 CPU 擴充推向市場。

  • So I'm really just trying to understand, do we see more momentum in the CPU extensions? Do we see more of these coming out? Which markets would they address? And how does this drive some of that royalty growth that you've been talking about over the medium term?

    所以我真的只是想了解,我們是否在 CPU 擴展方面看到了更多動力?我們會看到更多這樣的產品出現嗎?他們將針對哪些市場?從中期來看,這將如何推動您一直在談論的特許權使用費成長?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thank you for the question. The way you think about the CPU product line and the GPU product line for that matter, in addition to some of the fabric that goes with it. We're introducing introducing these products annually for the smartphone market and PC market, in particularly, those are annual beats and for the data center market more like every couple of years. And similar to that on the automotive side. And all of that is driving a pretty significant growth and demand cycle for Arm technology.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。您對 CPU 產品線和 GPU 產品線的看法,以及與之相關的一些結構。我們每年都會向智慧型手機市場和個人電腦市場推出這些產品,特別是每年都會推出一次,而對於資料中心市場則每隔幾年就會推出一次。與汽車方麵類似。所有這些都推動了 Arm 技術的顯著成長和需求週期。

  • One of the things that we see to your question of extensions, if I understand it correctly, is really around taking advantage of more and more of the v9 features. There's a lot inside version nine with security. There's a lot in terms of version nine in terms of confidential compute. We're seeing increased demand for that across all areas, particularly in the data center.

    如果我理解正確的話,我們對您的擴充問題看到的一件事實際上是利用越來越多的 v9 功能。第九版內部有許多安全方面的內容。第九版在機密計算方面有很多內容。我們看到所有領域對此的需求都在增加,特別是在資料中心。

  • And when we think about the data center growth, one of the benefits we're also getting that's driving increased licensing activity is the fact that these AI data centers are largely custom, meaning that the blades, the racks, the interconnect, everything associated with building an AI data center is different each time which leads its way to customization, which is good for Arm because these custom chips require Arm. And At the same time, the AI data centers, the power required by them is unprecedented relative to conventional data centers, and that's also good for Arm. And so the areas that I just mentioned around security and confidence will compute particularly AI data centers become hard requirements.

    當我們考慮資料中心的成長時,我們也獲得了推動許可活動增加的好處之一,即這些人工智慧資料中心很大程度上是客製化的,這意味著刀片、機架、互連以及與每次建構人工智慧資料中心都是不同的,這導致了客製化,這對Arm 有好處,因為這些客製化晶片需要Arm。同時,AI資料中心,其所需的電力相對於傳統資料中心來說是前所未有的,這對Arm來說也是利好。因此,我剛才提到的圍繞安全性和信心的領域將特別是人工智慧資料中心的計算成為硬性要求。

  • Lee Simpson - Analyst

    Lee Simpson - Analyst

  • That's great thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt Ramsay, TD Cowen.

    馬特·拉姆齊,TD·考恩。

  • Matt Ramsay - Analyst

    Matt Ramsay - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everybody. Rene, I had a couple of questions. I'll just ask them at the same time for expediency. But the first one, the licensing business has continued to be really strong for Arm and I think certainly, stronger recently than you guys had even forecast through the IPO process and whatnot. Maybe some of the upselling to make AI capable devices in certain markets has been part of that. And obviously, you talked about some of the platform licenses and whatnot and data center. But there's no doubt some correction going on in certain parts of the semiconductor industry, we've seen that across a number of your licensees and in broader based market.

    非常感謝。大家下午好。雷內,我有幾個問題。我就同時向他們請教一下是否方便。但第一個,Arm 的授權業務仍然非常強勁,我認為當然,最近比你們透過 IPO 流程和其他方式預測的還要強勁。也許在某些市場上製造具有人工智慧功能的設備的一些追加銷售就是其中的一部分。顯然,您談到了一些平台許可證等以及資料中心。但毫無疑問,半導體產業的某些部分正在發生一些調整,我們已經在許多被授權者和更廣泛的市場中看到了這一點。

  • So I just wonder if you could maybe give some commentary about what you're seeing in the licensing pipeline juxtaposed against some weakness in some parts of the semis industry? And then I guess the second part, I know you guys don't plan to report royalties or comment on them based on segments and lines of business on a quarterly basis. But you did call out 50% year-over-year growth in smartphone royalties against the total royalty pie growing 17%. So maybe you could talk about the puts and takes in some of the other non-smartphone sectors of the royalty numbers that you just printed? Thank guys.

    所以我只是想知道您是否可以對您在許可管道中看到的情況以及半成品行業某些部分的一些弱點提出一些評論?然後我想第二部分,我知道你們不打算按季度報告特許權使用費或根據細分市場和業務線對其進行評論。但您確實指出,智慧型手機特許權使用費同比增長了 50%,而總特許權使用費增長了 17%。那麼,也許您可以談談您剛剛列印的特許權使用費數字中其他一些非智慧型手機領域的看跌期權和賣出期權?謝謝你們。

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Thank you, Matt. I'll take the first part of your question and then I'll let Jason address the second part. It's a great question relative to how to think about industry correction, inventory sell through as a function of investment in R&D. In cycles in the past, sometimes you might see that investment in future design being impacted by just what you described. I would say, in the current moment of time, that is not the case. What we are not observing is any slowdown in licensing as it applies to anything going on in the end market.

    當然。謝謝你,馬特。我將回答你問題的第一部分,然後讓傑森解決第二部分。關於如何考慮產業調整、庫存銷售作為研發投資的函數,這是一個很大的問題。在過去的周期中,有時您可能會發現對未來設計的投資受到您所描述的影響。我想說,在當下時刻,情況並非如此。我們沒有觀察到許可方面的任何放緩,因為它適用於終端市場上發生的任何事情。

  • And I think what really drives that is when you think about these AI workloads and what's required to go drive them, keep in mind that if a designer is designing an SOC and they're now having to run a workload or a small language model at the edge of a device, that is in addition to all of the things that the SOC in the system has to do anyway. So what that is driving is a demand for more compute, more compute capability, more CPU cores, more subsystems, all of the above relative to new SOC starts.

    我認為真正推動這一點的是,當您考慮這些人工智慧工作負載以及驅動它們所需的條件時,請記住,如果設計人員正在設計SOC,並且他們現在必須在以下位置運行工作負載或小型語言模型:設備的邊緣,除了系統中 SOC 必須做的所有事情之外。因此,推動的是對更多計算、更多運算能力、更多 CPU 核心、更多子系統的需求,所有這些都與新的 SOC 啟動相關。

  • So we're not observing anything slowing down. And in fact, as you can see by the numbers, in your commentary relative to what we talked about 12 months ago during the IPO, it's probably picked up. And I think one of the reasons that we're seeing the end-benefit of that from a revenue standpoint is these are all running off existing platforms that are Arm-based. And one of the things that we continuously say about what drives our demand is this virtuous cycle of the largest number of platforms from a software development standpoint are Arm-based.

    所以我們沒有觀察到任何放緩的情況。事實上,正如您從數字中看到的,在您對我們 12 個月前 IPO 期間所討論內容的評論中,它可能有所回升。我認為,從收入的角度來看,我們看到最終收益的原因之一是,這些都是在基於 Arm 的現有平台上運行的。我們不斷談論的關於推動我們需求的因素之一是,從軟體開發的角度來看,最大數量的平台都是基於 Arm 的,這是一種良性循環。

  • So the more software that's available to run on Arm, the more companies that are trying to build chips that go into these end-products end up making them Arm-based. So we face very little competition, quite frankly, when their people are considering what is the CPDUs on the new design. And as a result, the availability of additional hardware just makes it easy for the software developers to choose which hardware to continue to develop on because it ends up holding on Arm. So long-winded way of saying that on this cycle, not observing any slowdown in terms of R&D investment, even though there might be some slowdown in terms of end market consumption as you state.

    因此,可在 Arm 上運行的軟體越多,嘗試建立用於這些最終產品的晶片的公司就越多,最終使它們基於 Arm。因此,坦白說,當他們的人員考慮新設計上的 CPDU 是什麼時,我們面臨的競爭很少。因此,額外硬體的可用性使得軟體開發人員可以輕鬆選擇繼續開發的硬件,因為它最終會保留在 Arm 上。如此冗長的說法,在這個週期中,沒有觀察到研發投資有任何放緩,儘管正如你所說,終端市場消費可能會有所放緩。

  • I'll turn it over to Jason to answer the second part of your question.

    我將把它交給傑森來回答你問題的第二部分。

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Matt. So on royalties, we're going to provide in the accompanying slides, we're going to update that, that will be sent out right when the call ends. But we'll provide an update as we promised the annual kind of update on what is the mix of our royalties and then what is the kind of update in TAM and kind of market shares. Just at a high level, provide maybe a little bit of update at kind of some of the the key headlines.

    謝謝,馬特。因此,關於版稅,我們將在隨附的幻燈片中提供,我們將更新該內容,該內容將在通話結束時立即發送。但我們將提供更新,因為我們承諾每年更新我們的特許權使用費的組合,然後更新 TAM 和市場份額的類型。只是在較高的層面上,提供一些關鍵標題的一些更新。

  • So first, as we said during the prepared remarks, we did see the mobile phone or smartphone royalty revenues grow by over 50%. And so, certainly, very strong growth, as you said, versus the unit growth. In terms of the clients overall, for the full year, we saw that grow somewhere kind of in the 20%-ish range when you when you factor all the different businesses together. And again, we'll provide more color across some of the various sectors where there was maybe some slowdown specifically in PC. Last year was a slow year, obviously, we expect that to change this year, but last year was pretty slow.

    首先,正如我們在準備好的發言中所說,我們確實看到手機或智慧型手機版稅收入增加了 50% 以上。因此,正如您所說,與單位增長相比,增長當然非常強勁。就整體客戶而言,當您將所有不同業務考慮在一起時,我們發現全年客戶成長幅度在 20% 左右。再次,我們將在各個領域提供更多的信息,特別是在 PC 領域,這些領域可能會出現一些放緩。顯然,去年是緩慢的一年,我們預計今年會有所改變,但去年的速度相當緩慢。

  • For the cloud compute market, we actually saw the strongest growth we've ever seen at, say, north of 75% and growth year on year. That's certainly driven by all the projects that we've talked about throughout this last year. Certainly, strong growth within AWS. But now with some of the projects coming online with both Cobalt from Microsoft and Axiom from Google, we expect to see that number continue to accelerate.

    對於雲端運算市場,我們實際上看到了有史以來最強勁的成長,例如超過 75% 以及同比增長。這當然是由我們去年討論過的所有項目所推動的。當然,AWS 內部的強勁成長。但現在隨著一些專案同時使用微軟的 Cobalt 和Google的 Axiom,我們預期這個數字將繼續加速。

  • On the auto side, we saw that somewhere in the kind of -- somewhere around 28% year-on-year growth. Again, a little bit different than what you're seeing in some of the other auto auto semiconductor companies for the most part, really our exposure is primarily on ADAS and IBI, which are kind of the stronger growth parts of that market.

    在汽車方面,我們看到了同比增長約 28% 的情況。再次強調,與您在其他一些汽車半導體公司中看到的情況有點不同,我們的業務主要集中在 ADAS 和 IBI 領域,這是該市場成長強勁的部分。

  • And then on IoT, networking, industrial, as mentioned, those categories have been kind of -- we've seen persisting weakness in those categories. So we've seen negative growth in those categories. Expecting to see things start to pick up maybe a little bit, at least sequentially this quarter. But last year, definitely, they were in the negative territory. But again, we'll provide a supplement with more detail. So if you have other questions after seeing those details, we'll certainly be able to answer questions after that comes out.

    然後,在物聯網、網路、工業方面,正如前面提到的,這些類別一直存在——我們已經看到這些類別持續存在弱點。所以我們看到這些類別出現負成長。預計情況會開始好轉,至少在本季是如此。但去年,他們確實處於負值區域。但我們將再次提供包含更多詳細資訊的補充。因此,如果您在看到這些詳細資訊後還有其他問題,我們一定能夠在詳細資訊公佈後回答您的問題。

  • Matt Ramsay - Analyst

    Matt Ramsay - Analyst

  • Thanks, guys. Really appreciate it.

    多謝你們。真的很感激。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Lipacis, Evercore.

    馬克·利帕西斯,Evercore。

  • Mark Lipacis - Analyst

    Mark Lipacis - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for taking my question. I had a question on the compute side of the business. Maybe a two-part question, if I may, on the -- in compute on the CPU side of the data center, I think for us, it's more easy to track because there's some more obvious deployments there. But I would say on the parallel processing side or the accelerator side, it's not as easy for us to track.

    偉大的。感謝您提出我的問題。我有一個關於業務計算方面的問題。也許是一個由兩部分組成的問題,如果可以的話,在資料中心 CPU 端的計算中,我認為對我們來說,追蹤更容易,因為那裡有一些更明顯的部署。但我想說的是,在平行處理方面或加速器方面,我們追蹤起來並不那麼容易。

  • And I was wondering if you could give us a sense of where you are in the penetration of that part of the market? And if you could comment about how that part of the business compares to the CPU side? And then along these lines, if we consider the model, my understanding is that you have more core accounts per CPU that drives ASP higher and that and that helps. And I'm wondering, is that same dynamic apply on the accelerator side? Thank you.

    我想知道您能否讓我們了解一下您在這部分市場的滲透情況?您能否評論一下這部分業務與 CPU 方面的比較如何?然後沿著這些思路,如果我們考慮模型,我的理解是,每個 CPU 都有更多的核心帳戶,這會推動 ASP 更高,這會有所幫助。我想知道,同樣的動態也適用於加速器方面嗎?謝謝。

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thank you for the question. So when you think about the AI data center and particularly around the accelerator and the CPU that ties into it, clearly, the lion's share of the market today with accelerators belongs to Nvidia. Nvidia, their numbers speak for themselves. But relative to the penetration of Arm in the data center, they had announced Grace Hopper about a year-and-a-half ago, which was the Arm-based design, which integrates an Arm-based CPU to a hopper of GPU. The next advanced platform that they announced Grace Blackwell, which is going to be shipping soon. They've just now started initial volumes of that.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。因此,當您考慮 AI 資料中心,尤其是加速器和與之相關的 CPU 時,很明顯,當今加速器市場的最大份額屬於 Nvidia。英偉達,他們的數字不言而喻。但相對於Arm在資料中心的滲透,他們大約一年半前就宣布了Grace Hopper,這是基於Arm的設計,將基於Arm的CPU整合到GPU的漏斗中。他們宣布的下一個先進平台是 Grace Blackwell,即將出貨。他們現在剛開始出版第一卷。

  • They -- we expect with that design to have the volumes be higher than it was on Grace Hopper. We think that Grace Blackwell, just given the performance and power will be a very, very good shift for us in the AI data center, partnering with Nvidia. When we think about other accelerators that would connect to an Arm CPU right now, most of those accelerators are custom that are being done in-house, and it's still early days in terms of that kind of volume. But back to my earlier comment relative to the AI data centers. And I think Grace Blackwell is a very good example of that.

    他們——我們預計這種設計的音量會比 Grace Hopper 的音量更高。我們認為 Grace Blackwell 的效能和能力對於我們在人工智慧資料中心與 Nvidia 的合作來說將是一個非常非常好的轉變。當我們考慮現在連接到 Arm CPU 的其他加速器時,大多數加速器都是客製化的,正在內部完成,而且就這種數量而言還處於早期階段。回到我之前關於人工智慧資料中心的評論。我認為葛蕾絲·布萊克威爾就是一個很好的例子。

  • Grace Blackwell is a custom chip that goes into a custom blade, into a customer rack, into a custom system. It is a full system design with incredible complexity and also very unique in terms of its power sadings. We expect to see a similar trend with other accelerators that use Arm, because the ultimate benefit of using Arm for an AI data center is the customization, i.e, being able to build something that's very, very custom in terms of the interconnect, custom in terms of memory customer in terms of the overall network.

    Grace Blackwell 是一款客製化晶片,可用於客製化刀片、客戶機架和客製化系統。它是一個完整的系統設計,具有令人難以置信的複雜性,並且在電源方面也非常獨特。我們預計使用 Arm 的其他加速器也會出現類似的趨勢,因為將 Arm 用於人工智慧資料中心的最終好處是定制,即能夠構建在互連方面非常非常定制的東西,在就整個網絡而言,內存客戶而言。

  • And at the same time, we will be the most power-efficient CPU architecture out there. So early days still is the short answer in terms of being able to count what the units are in terms of CPU and a data center. But it's going to be growing rapidly we expect, and the most obvious indicator that is Grace Blackwell.

    同時,我們將成為最節能的 CPU 架構。因此,早期的答案仍然是能夠計算 CPU 和資料中心的單位。但我們預期它會快速成長,最明顯的指標就是格蕾絲·布萊克威爾(Grace Blackwell)。

  • Mark Lipacis - Analyst

    Mark Lipacis - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna International Group.

    邁赫迪‧侯賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini),薩斯奎哈納國際集團。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks for taking my question. I want go back to the commentary on the smartphone. To what extent are you baking in in your royalty? Any kind of inventory correction in the smartphone and then this is looking forward? And then back to a licensing, are you still expecting a significant pickup in the Q4 fiscal year as you were highlighting in the last earnings conference call?

    是的,感謝您提出我的問題。我想回到智慧型手機上的評論。您對皇室的喜愛程度如何?智慧型手機中是否會進行任何庫存調整,這是否值得期待?然後回到許可問題,您是否仍然預計第四季度財年會大幅回升,正如您在上次財報電話會議中所強調的?

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • This is Jason. I'll take those questions. So on the smartphone side, just last quarter, I think as Rene highlighted, we basically grew the royalties by about 50% year on year, while units only grew in the mid-single digits. Our expectations for this year are that you're going to see pretty similar unit growth, but we expect to be outpacing just like we did in Q1 for the rest of the year because of the v8 to v9 transition. In fact, in smartphones, we're actually about -- from v9 perspective, about 50% of royalty dollars are now have v9 dollars. So we've actually -- we're ahead on our v8 to v9 transition in mobile.

    這是傑森。我會回答這些問題。因此,在智慧型手機方面,就在上個季度,我認為正如 Rene 所強調的那樣,我們的特許權使用費基本上同比增長了約 50%,而單位數量僅增長了中個位數。我們對今年的預期是,您將看到非常相似的單位成長,但由於 v8 到 v9 的過渡,我們預計今年剩餘時間的成長速度將超過第一季。事實上,在智慧型手機領域,從 v9 的角度來看,現在大約 50% 的版稅都是 v9 美元。因此,我們實際上在移動領域從 v8 到 v9 的過渡方面處於領先地位。

  • Now we've also said previously that compute subsystems will start to come online at the second half of this year. But specifically in mobile, you'll see it starting in Q4. It will be pretty small, but next year will become, I would say, more material. So overall, we expect our mobile royalty growth to significantly outpace unit growth for this year, next year, and I would say even for the next few years, especially because we see the CSS kind of a ramp to be not unlike the v8 to v9 ramp, which is it's probably somewhere around a four-year period for the adoption, it's mature and therefore to provide incremental growth tailwinds during that full time frame.

    我們之前也說過,計算子系統將在今年下半年開始上線。但特別是在行動領域,您將從第四季度開始看到它。它會很小,但我想說,明年將會變得更加充實。因此,總體而言,我們預計今年、明年的行動版稅成長將顯著超過單位成長,我甚至會說在接下來的幾年裡,特別是因為我們看到CSS 的成長與v8 到v9 沒有什麼不同斜坡,這可能需要大約四年的時間才能採用,它已經成熟,因此可以在整個時間範圍內提供增量增長動力。

  • On the licensing side, yes, we do have -- we do still have the strongest licensing growth from a total revenue perspective expected to be in Q4. We have a fairly wide range mostly because we have a large pipeline of deals. As Rene said, the pipeline has been strong. It's actually been -- it's actually incremental, it's actually slightly stronger now than it was even 90 days ago, which is why even with a little bit of royalty softness where we're actually leaning it ahead a little bit on royalty -- on license.

    在授權方面,是的,我們確實有——從預計第四季度總收入的角度來看,我們仍然擁有最強勁的授權成長。我們的產品範圍相當廣泛,主要是因為我們有大量的交易。正如雷內所說,管道一直很強大。它實際上是 - 它實際上是增量的,現在實際上比 90 天前稍微強一些,這就是為什麼即使有一點版權費軟化,我們實際上在版權費上稍微領先一點 - 在許可上。

  • Now those deals do typically as large license deals, there are renewals and there are some incremental new deals. Those new deals in particular typically have a six to nine months kind of cycle. And so it will take us a while to get a better sense on the shape and sizing, which is why we have a relatively large range still for guidance. And in particular, it's really on the license side world that ranges it is most applicable. So high confidence based on the pipeline, and the visibility, and the discussions that we've had. We will update you throughout the quarters as we get more insight and can be a little more refined.

    現在,這些交易通常是大型許可交易,有續約,也有一些增量新交易。這些新交易通常有六到九個月的周期。因此,我們需要一段時間才能更好地了解形狀和尺寸,這就是為什麼我們仍然有一個相對較大的範圍可供指導。特別是,它確實在許可方面最適用。基於管道、可見性以及我們進行的討論,我們具有如此高的信心。當我們獲得更多見解並且可以更加完善時,我們將在整個季度向您提供最新資訊。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for the details.

    偉大的。感謝您提供詳細資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho

    維傑·拉克什,瑞穗

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. Just a quick question on the handset side. I know you mentioned you're seeing a ramp with handset CSS on v9. As you look at the handset ecosystem, are you seeing further China handset OEMs start to license (inaudible) course or AI course? Because I think you are seeing the capacity start to explore. I'm just wondering if you're seeing the handset OEMs start to build their course. And if so, when do you start to see licensing royalties on those? Thanks.

    嗨,大家好。只是關於手機方面的簡單問題。我知道您提到您在 v9 上看到了帶有手機 CSS 的斜坡。當您審視手機生態系統時,您是否看到更多的中國手機 OEM 開始授權(聽不清楚)課程或人工智慧課程?因為我認為你正在看到能力開始探索。我只是想知道您是否看到手機原始設備製造商開始建立他們的課程。如果是這樣,您什麼時候開始看到這些許可證使用費?謝謝。

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we don't call out specific licensing deals in China because we do that through Arm China, who is our design partner. But what I can say is that the macro trends that we see across the world, i.e., growth in data center, growth in the automotive, demand for CSS in automotive, demand for CSS. demand for CSS. and smartphone, that all applies to China as well.

    是的,我們不會提及在中國的特定授權協議,因為我們是透過我們的設計合作夥伴 Arm China 來做到這一點的。但我能說的是我們在世界各地看到的宏觀趨勢,也就是資料中心的成長、汽車的成長、汽車對 CSS 的需求、對 CSS 的需求。對 CSS 的需求。和智慧型手機,這也適用於中國。

  • There's nothing unique to what the China market wants to do relative to the rest of the world. And that's really because -- and I can't overemphasize this enough, China runs off the same global software ecosystem that everyone else does. It's all running either IOS, Mac OS. Stock Android, Windows, all that runs on Arm. So Arm China is how we quote the revenue in through China. So we don't call our partner specifically, but macro level behaviors are the same.

    相對於世界其他地區,中國市場想要做的事情並沒有什麼獨特之處。這確實是因為──我怎麼強調都不為過,中國與其他國家一樣擁有同樣的全球軟體生態系統。全部運行 IOS、Mac OS。原生 Android、Windows,所有都在 Arm 上運作。所以Arm China就是我們透過中國引用收入的方式。所以我們不會特別稱呼我們的合作夥伴,但宏觀層面的行為是相同的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Shi, Needham & Company.

    查爾斯‧史(Charles Shi),李約瑟公司。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon, Rene, Jason. I just want to get to use this opportunity to ask you about your comment at the compute taxing in terms of the 50% PC market issue in five years. Just provide a little bit context of why I still want to ask you this question. My understanding, we already have Arm-based PCs already, right that the Mac is one, Chromebook another. Some of your peers, I mean, the X86 peers seems to disagree with what you said about 50% market share in five years.

    嗨,下午好,雷內,傑森。我只是想利用這個機會詢問您對五年內 PC 市場佔 50% 的計算稅問題的看法。請提供一些背景資訊來說明為什麼我仍然想問你這個問題。據我了解,我們已經有了基於 Arm 的 PC,Mac 是其中之一,Chromebook 是另一台。我的意思是,你的一些同行,X86 同行似乎不同意你所說的五年內 50% 的市場份額。

  • They basically argue that whether you have a good AIPC or not, really is not ICA-dependent. Wondering if what's your response here? And can you provide a little bit more thoughts on why this time is different? Why Arm can really take the market share up to 50% in a short period of time? Thanks.

    他們基本上認為,無論你是否擁有良好的 AIPC,實際上並不依賴 ICA。想知道您對此有何回應?您能否就為什麼這次不同提供更多想法?為什麼Arm真的能在短時間內將市佔率提升至50%?謝謝。

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, sure. No, thank you for the question. Yes, I would be a little worried if they agreed with my comment that we're going to take 50% in five years. So basically, the question is why is this time different? I think first off, you commented yourself relative to the other operating systems having now Arm-based solutions, one of them Apple's operating system and their environment has moved over 100%. And that is obviously a pretty significant indication of the value proposition that they get.

    是的,當然。不,謝謝你的提問。是的,如果他們同意我的評論,我們將在五年內拿走 50%,我會有點擔心。所以基本上,問題是為什麼這次不一樣?我想首先,您相對於現在擁有基於 Arm 的解決方案的其他作業系統進行了評論,其中一個 Apple 的作業系統及其環境已經移動了 100% 以上。這顯然是他們所獲得的價值主張的一個非常重要的指標。

  • I think what's changed this time in the Windows ecosystem, there's a number of things that have changed. First is that the products that are out today are using the most advanced Arm technology. They are optimized with Microsoft for the most effective battery life on the planet. If you look at, for example, Dell's XPS product line as an example, they're touting over 19 hours of battery life for the Arm-based solution, well in excess of what you see from the competition.

    我認為這次 Windows 生態系統發生了變化,有很多事情都改變了。首先,今天推出的產品採用了最先進的 Arm 技術。它們與 Microsoft 一起進行了優化,以實現地球上最有效的電池壽命。例如,如果您以戴爾的 XPS 產品線為例,他們宣稱基於 Arm 的解決方案的電池壽命超過 19 小時,遠遠超出了您在競爭對手中看到的電池壽命。

  • Additionally, some of the earlier Arm-based PCs for Windows, we're using technology that, A, was designed for phones, and B, was three or four years old that had not been updated or upgraded. That's all changed as well to have these products to AIPC compliant.

    此外,在一些早期的基於 Arm 的 Windows PC 中,我們使用的技術 A 是為手機設計的,B 已經有三、四年的歷史了,尚未更新或升級。為了使這些產品符合 AIPC 標準,這一切都改變了。

  • And lastly, ultimately, what you need to get to that kind of market share are a broadening of the supplier base. You also need the top-to-bottom SKUs to be address from the entry all the way to the top end. We're very confident from everything we're hearing in the ecosystem. That is all going to be filled out over the next number of years.

    最後,要獲得這樣的市場份額,最終需要擴大供應商基礎。您還需要從上到下的 SKU 從條目一直到頂端進行尋址。我們對生態系統中所聽到的一切都非常有信心。這些都將在未來幾年內得到填補。

  • So when you combine a supply base that has multiple vendors, also incredible battery life, and then no-compromise performance, I don't see really any reason why what happened in the Mac ecosystem can happen in the Windows ecosystem. So the Mac ecosystem is virtually 100%. So when we think of 50%, that doesn't seem too lofty for me in five years.

    因此,當你將擁有多個供應商的供應基地、令人難以置信的電池壽命以及不妥協的性能結合起來時,我認為沒有任何理由可以解釋為什麼Mac 生態系統中發生的事情也會發生在Windows生態系中。所以Mac生態系幾乎是100%的。因此,當我們想到 50% 時,五年後這對我來說似乎並不太高。

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • David O'Connor, BNP Paribas.

    大衛‧奧康納,法國巴黎銀行。

  • David O'Connor - Analyst

    David O'Connor - Analyst

  • Great. Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. Just one on my side, maybe for Jason, on the royalty seasonality. Just looking there at the second half, Jason, and particularly when you consider you've kind of a big customer coming with the v9 adoption in the fiscal Q3, and then a more while CSS client kind of kicking in in fiscal Q4. Can you help us out how to model that kind of second half in terms of royalties, so you get the kind of weightings are correct? Thank you.

    偉大的。下午好,感謝您提出我的問題。我這邊只有一個,也許是傑森的,關於皇室季節性。 Jason,看看下半年,特別是當你認為你有一個大客戶在第三財季採用 v9,然後 CSS 客戶端在第四財季開始使用時。您能否幫助我們了解如何根據版稅對下半年進行建模,以便您獲得正確的權重?謝謝。

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So the there's two things going on. There's v8 to v9 adoption. There is CSS, but then there's also seasonality. But lastly, what are we comping from a year ago since we had a kind of a recovering industry. So certainly, from the bottom was a year ago last quarter, and now we're starting the comps stronger and stronger periods.

    所以有兩件事正在發生。 v8 到 v9 的採用。有 CSS,但也有季節性。但最後,自從我們的行業正在復甦以來,我們與一年前的情況相比如何。所以當然,從一年前的上個季度開始,現在我們正在開始比較越來越強勁的時期。

  • From a royalty growth, as I said, for full year, we're expecting kind of low 20%-ish range year on year, down from the 25% that we had previously expected. When you look at the kind of growth on a quarterly basis, we expect it to be roughly, I'd say, roughly 10% per quarter from this Q1 to Q2, then again, Q2 to Q3, and then Q3 to Q4. And that will get you to kind of roughly in that low 20% year-on-year growth rate.

    正如我所說,從全年的特許權使用費成長來看,我們預計將年增 20% 左右,低於我們先前預期的 25%。當你按季度查看這種增長時,我們預計從第一季度到第二季度,然後是第二季度到第三季度,然後第三季度到第四季度,每季度增長大約為 10%。這將使你的同比增長率大約為 20%。

  • David O'Connor - Analyst

    David O'Connor - Analyst

  • Very, helpful. Thank you.

    很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Gardiner, Citi.

    安德魯·加德納,花旗銀行。

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Thanks very much for taking the question. I just had another one on the licensing side. I mean, you mentioned that it's a lumpy business. It certainly is. But fortunately, in practically every quarter since the IPO, it's been lumpy in one direction to the upside. What in the current quarter has driven and upside relative to your visibility? Was it your companies taking more on content? Did you have more bookings that we're able to turn quickly, and CSS or was there a pull forward from deals that you might have expected to recognize revenue on in future periods? I'm just trying to understand sort of where the upside is coming from.

    非常感謝您提出問題。我剛剛在許可證方面又有了一個。我的意思是,你提到這是一個不穩定的業務。必然是。但幸運的是,自 IPO 以來的幾乎每個季度,它都在一個向上的方向上波動。本季度哪些因素推動了您的知名度並取得了上升?是你們的公司在內容上投入了更多力嗎?您是否有更多我們能夠快速處理的預訂以及CSS,或者是否有您可能預計在未來期間確認收入的交易的拉動?我只是想了解這種好處從何而來。

  • And also, Jason, at the last call, you've given us sort of the bookings outlook for the year, saying that it had been such a strong year last year that you expected about 60% of that level in fiscal '25. I think you touched on it in your prepared comments, but I apologize, I missed it. But what's the expectation for that after strong first quarter?

    而且,Jason,在上次電話會議中,您向我們提供了今年的預訂前景,並表示去年的預訂量非常強勁,您預計 25 財年的預訂量將達到該水平的 60% 左右。我認為您在準備好的評論中提到了這一點,但我很抱歉,我錯過了。但在第一季表現強勁之後,對此有何預期?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks for the question. So on overall from really from last quarter, we are -- we do see a little bit stronger licensing to account for that slight reduction that we're expecting in royalties. That reduction in royalties is about $75 million-ish and for the year. So the increase then that we would expect to see on licensing is the same amount. So not a significant difference from what we had last quarter.

    謝謝你的提問。因此,從上個季度的整體情況來看,我們確實看到了更強大的許可,以解釋我們預期的特許權使用費略有下降。今年特許權使用費減少額約 7,500 萬美元左右。因此,我們預計在授權方面看到的成長量是相同的。因此,與上季的情況沒有顯著差異。

  • So in terms of what we saw last quarter versus this quarter, for the most part, we still have strong visibility into our renewals, specifically of some ATAs, which are the biggest drivers of license bookings and revenue. We do have some, I would say, some newer deals on newer technologies. Those are the ones that are a little harder to forecast.

    因此,就我們上季度與本季的情況來看,在很大程度上,我們仍然對我們的續訂有很強的了解,特別是一些 ATA,它們是許可證預訂和收入的最大驅動力。我想說,我們確實有一些關於新技術的新交易。這些是比較難以預測的。

  • And that's why, depending on what the final shape and size of those deals look like will help us figure out which part of the guidance range will fall into. And so that as time progresses throughout the year, we'll get more clarity on those aspects. But in terms of the fundamentals, as Rene said, it really from the partner side, the demand for Arm designs continues to stay just as durable and as strong, maybe even stronger than it was 90 days ago. So so those are all the key drivers and pieces.

    這就是為什麼,根據這些交易的最終形式和規模,將幫助我們確定屬於指導範圍的哪一部分。因此,隨著一年中時間的推移,我們將在這些方面變得更加清晰。但就基本面而言,正如 Rene 所說,確實從合作夥伴方面來看,對 Arm 設計的需求繼續保持持久和強勁,甚至可能比 90 天前還要強勁。所以這些都是關鍵的驅動因素和組成。

  • The one thing I would say about the comment you said about positive to the upside, you're right, except for the next quarter, you're going to see it go to negative, because we are now starting to comp some of those strong over-performance quarters that we had last year. So you are going to see I know you had negative 20%-ish year on year because of what we're comping a year ago. You'll see get back to kind of more flattish in Q3, a slightly positive. And then you'll see strong growth again in Q4.

    關於您所說的關於積極上行的評論,我要說的一件事是,您是對的,除了下個季度,您將看到它轉為負面,因為我們現在開始比較一些強勁的公司我們去年的季度業績超預期。所以你會看到,我知道,由於我們一年前的比較,你的表現比去年同期下降了 20% 左右。您會看到第三季度恢復到更平坦的狀態,這是一個稍微積極的結果。然後您將在第四季度再次看到強勁增長。

  • Now it will all shake out to be somewhere in kind of the mid 20% year-on-year range. And that's why each quarter's going to look very, very different. But on average, it's going to be not that far from what the ACV growth of roughly 14% looks like. And that's why I would -- I kind of like the ACV growth because of the fact that it's cutting through rev rec and treating everything ratable, it's a better kind of indicator of what the longer-term growth rate looks like. And so that's how I think about it.

    現在,一切都將達到同比 20% 左右的水平。這就是為什麼每個季度看起來都會非常非常不同。但平均而言,這與 ACV 大約 14% 的成長相去不遠。這就是為什麼我會——我有點喜歡ACV的成長,因為它削減了轉速記錄並對待所有可評估的東西,它是衡量長期成長率的更好指標。這就是我的想法。

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯‧卡索,沃爾夫研究中心。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you. The question is just some help on the slope of the Arm v9 ramp outside of handsets. And you talked about V9, I think penetration was 25% of the total business, obviously a lot higher within handsets. How should we expect that those higher v9 royalties to be layering into the non-handset part of the business over time?

    是的,謝謝。問題只是對手機以外的 Arm v9 斜坡的一些幫助。你談到了 V9,我認為滲透率佔總業務的 25%,顯然在手機領域要高得多。隨著時間的推移,我們應該如何預期這些更高的 v9 版稅會逐漸滲透到業務的非手機部分?

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Well, as you're forecasting the overall business, I would have you seen roughly 500 basis points of total royalty mix moving to benign. I would expect that same. It's now been what three or four quarters in a row that we've seen that. I would expect that to be the continued trajectory. Our forecast so that it should be pretty close to that as I move around a little bit. And when it does, we'll let you know. That's how it works overall.

    是的。好吧,當您預測整體業務時,我希望您看到總特許權使用費組合的大約 500 個基點轉向良性。我也希望如此。現在我們已經連續三、四個季度看到這種情況了。我預計這將是持續的軌跡。我們的預測是,當我稍微移動時,它應該非常接近。當它發生時,我們會通知您。這就是它的整體運作方式。

  • In terms of by category, certainly, mobile is well ahead for a variety of reasons. As Rene said, typically, the timeframe to license to tape out is faster. They were some of the early adopters on benign. So they will be ahead of others. You should expect probably, say, probably the catagory behind them would probably be infrastructure as the next most, I guess, furthest this long.

    當然,就類別而言,行動裝置由於多種原因遙遙領先。正如雷內所說,通常情況下,獲得流片許可的時間會更快。他們是良性療法的早期採用者之一。所以他們會領先其他人。你應該預料到,也許它們背後的類別可能是基礎設施,我猜,是第二個最遠的類別。

  • Behind them, auto and then really lastly, probably IoT. But overall, forecast it by category, which we also do. I find it really that doesn't give you a much better of an answer than using that roughly 500 basis points in total, because that seems to be -- that's closest to how I how our models have worked. And we think they will continue to work going forward.

    在它們後面是汽車,最後可能是物聯網。但總體而言,以類別進行預測,我們也是這麼做的。我發現確實沒有比使用總共大約 500 個基點更好的答案了,因為這似乎最接近我們模型的工作方式。我們認為他們未來將繼續努力。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Child - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session for today. I will now hand the call back to Rene Haas for closing remarks.

    謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在,我將把電話轉回給雷內·哈斯,讓其致閉幕詞。

  • Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Rene Haas - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. And again, thank you, everyone, for the great questions. In summary, again, four quarters as a public company, four quarters of record revenue. I do again harken back to when we were doing our IPO roadshow and testing the waters that Arm being such a quiet company for so many years, we had a lot of education we had to do regarding Arm being a growth company.

    謝謝。再次感謝大家提出的好問題。總而言之,作為一家上市公司,四個季度的收入創歷史新高。我確實再次回想起當我們進行 IPO 路演並試水 Arm 多年來一直是一家如此安靜的公司時,我們必須做很多關於 Arm 是一家成長型公司的教育。

  • I am so pleased that a year later that not only have we shown four quarters of record growth, but I'm even more excited about the future. When it comes from either CSSs or the growth with AI or what seems to be an insatiable need for compute, the world's platforms are all going to be built on Arm and I could not be more excited about the future.

    我很高興一年後我們不僅實現了四個季度的創紀錄成長,而且對未來更加興奮。當它來自 CSS 或人工智慧的成長或對運算的永不滿足的需求時,世界上的平台都將建立在 Arm 上,我對未來感到無比興奮。

  • Thank you, everyone.

    謝謝大家。