Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

該公司今年開局強勁,費用相關收益和調整後淨收入創下紀錄,導致現金股利增加 10%。執行長、總裁和財務長與投資者討論了業績和發展勢頭,強調了強勁的財務業績以及他們在動盪時期降低風險和提供資本解決方案的重點。他們討論了市場波動、近期財務表現、未來成長的關鍵驅動力以及公司蓬勃發展的定位。

該公司對成長機會持樂觀態度,特別是在私人資產和信貸解決方案方面,並專注於資產的起源和品質。他們宣布與傳統資產管理公司建立合作夥伴關係,並正在探索私人資產領域的新產品和合作夥伴關係。發言人對該公司駕馭市場動態和推動產業成長的能力充滿信心。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Apollo Global Management's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. During today’s discussion all callers will be placed in listen-only mode and following management’s prepared remarks the conference call will be open for question. (Operator Instructions) This conference call is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加阿波羅全球管理公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。在今天的討論中,所有呼叫者都將處於只聽模式,在管理層準備好發言後,電話會議將開放提問。(操作員指示)本次電話會議正在錄音。

  • This call may contain forward-looking statements and projections, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to Apollo's most recent SEC filings for risk factors related to these statements. Apollo will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business.

    本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述和預測,不保證未來事件或表現。有關這些聲明的風險因素,請參閱 Apollo 最新的 SEC 文件。阿波羅將在本次電話會議上討論某些非公認會計準則指標,管理階層認為這些指標與評估業務的財務表現有關。

  • These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in Apollo's earnings presentation, which is available on the company's website. Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Apollo fund.

    這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標與阿波羅公司收益報告中的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 數據一致,可在公司網站上查閱。另請注意,本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買任何阿波羅基金權益的要約邀請。

  • I will now turn the call over to Noah Gunn, Global Head of Investor Relations.

    現在我將把電話轉給全球投資者關係主管 Noah Gunn。

  • Noah Gunn Gunn - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Noah Gunn Gunn - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. Thanks, operator, and welcome again to our call. Joining me to discuss our results and the momentum we're seeing across the business are Marc Rowan, CEO; Jim Zelter, President; and Martin Kelly, CFO.

    偉大的。謝謝接線員,歡迎再次接聽我們的電話。與我一起討論我們的業績以及我們在整個業務中看到的勢頭的有首席執行官馬克·羅文 (Marc Rowan);總裁 Jim Zelter;以及首席財務官馬丁·凱利 (Martin Kelly)。

  • Earlier this morning, we published our earnings release and financial supplement on the Investor Relations portion of our website. As you can see, first quarter results marked a strong start to the year. We generated record fee related earnings of $559 million or $0.91 per share, spread related earnings, excluding notable items of $826 million or $1.35 per share, and adjusted net income of $1.1 billion or $1.82 per share.

    今天早些時候,我們在網站的投資者關係部分發布了收益報告和財務補充。如您所見,第一季的業績標誌著今年的開局強勁。我們創造了創紀錄的費用相關收益 5.59 億美元或每股 0.91 美元,利差相關收益(不包括重要項目)為 8.26 億美元或每股 1.35 美元,調整後淨收入為 11 億美元或每股 1.82 美元。

  • In addition, we declared a cash dividend of $0.51 per share of common stock for the quarter ended March 31, representing a 10% increase from our prior quarterly run rate and consistent with the growth trajectory we provided at Investor Day.

    此外,我們宣佈在截至 3 月 31 日的季度中派發每股普通股 0.51 美元的現金股息,比上一季的股息率增長 10%,與我們在投資者日提供的增長軌跡一致。

  • And with that, I'll now hand it over to Marc.

    現在我將把發言權交給馬克。

  • Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Noah, and thanks to all of you joining this morning. As Noah started off, strong results, particularly amid a very volatile market. FRE of $559 million, up 21% quarter-over-quarter or I should say, year-over-year. SRE of $826 million ex-notables. AUM up $785 million, up 17% year-over-year. Record inflows $43 billion in the quarter, inclusive of $26 billion at Athene. Solid origination quarter at $56 billion, led primarily by platforms. And most importantly fund-level returns strong.

    謝謝你,諾亞,也謝謝今天早上所有人的參加。諾亞剛起步時就取得了強勁的業績,尤其是在市場波動非常大的情況下。FRE 為 5.59 億美元,比上一季成長 21%,或比去年同期成長 21%。前知名人士的 SRE 為 8.26 億美元。資產管理規模增加 7.85 億美元,年增 17%。本季流入資金達到創紀錄的 430 億美元,其中包括 Athene 的 260 億美元。本季的發起金額穩健,達到 560 億美元,主要由平台主導。最重要的是基金層面的報酬強勁。

  • I'd call out two particular areas, in the credit business 8% to 12% now depending on the fund on an LTM basis. And in our hybrid area, 19% on an LTM basis. In communicating what's going on in this market, most of the questions I've received over the past month have been about the macro. So let me start there. It is never been more important to understand the manager philosophy and, thus the direction of the business. You, as investors, you should expect divergent paths for public asset managers.

    我想指出兩個特定的領域,在信貸業務中,目前利率為 8% 至 12%,具體取決於 LTM 基礎上的基金。在我們的混合領域,LTM 基礎上的比例為 19%。在交流這個市場正在發生的事情時,過去一個月我收到的大多數問題都是關於宏觀的。那麼讓我從這裡開始。了解管理者的理念以及業務的方向從未如此重要。身為投資者,您應該預料到公共資產管理者會走上不同的道路。

  • For us, purchase price matters in all markets. In debt and equity, in up-markets and down-markets, purchase price always matters. We are not a current period profit maximizer. That means we are willing to sit things out. We are willing to reduce leverage. We are willing to wait for the fat pitch. Three, we are relentlessly focused on origination as our source of excess return. We are not riding market trends. Hope and prayer we have found to be very poor business strategies, but good strategies for life.

    對我們來說,採購價格在所有市場都很重要。在債務和股權、上漲市場和下跌市場中,購買價格始終很重要。我們並不是當前時期的利潤最大化者。這意味著我們願意袖手旁觀。我們願意降低槓桿。我們願意等待最佳時機。第三,我們堅持不懈地專注於起源作為我們超額回報的來源。我們沒有順應市場趨勢。我們發現,希望和祈禱是非常糟糕的商業策略,但卻是良好的生活策略。

  • Just a quick example of this. ADS was one-time leveraged in January of '23. Prudent management of the vehicle took leverage down to 0.5 times in January of '25. We have earned the right to deploy in this market, and we expect an acceleration in returns rather than a reduction in risk. This is a totally different positioning than almost everyone else in the marketplace and reflective of the philosophy by which we run the business.

    這只是一個簡單的例子。ADS 在 23 年 1 月曾被用作槓桿。對該工具的審慎管理使槓桿率在 25 年 1 月降至 0.5 倍。我們已經贏得了在這個市場上部署的權利,我們期望回報加速而不是風險降低。這與市場上幾乎所有其他人的定位都完全不同,反映了我們經營業務的理念。

  • Let me really pivot to macro. The last few years through Q1, I’d describe as hyper US exceptionalism. Money from around the globe found its way into the US primarily into our listed markets and indices. In the equity market, 10 stocks of the S&P 500 stood for 40% of the index. NVIDIA alone was larger than the market cap of every stock exchange in the world other than Japan, and those 10 stocks reached a height of a 60 PE on a current earnings basis.

    讓我真正轉向宏觀。過去幾年到第一季的情況,我將其描述為超級美國例外論。來自全球各地的資金流入美國,主要進入我們的上市市場和指數。在股票市場,標準普爾 500 指數中的 10 隻股票佔該指數的 40%。光是 NVIDIA 一家的市值就超過了除日本以外全球所有證券交易所的市值,而這 10 隻股票的本益比達到了當前收益基礎上 60 倍的高度。

  • In credit, BBB corporate spreads tightened below 100 basis points. The last time that happened, 27 years ago in 1998. CLOs, tightest spreads in a decade. Every asset manager was offered a choice. They could continue buying into this trend, adding risk, adding leverage, reducing credit quality to chase returns, or they could reduce risk, reduce leverage, prepare for the fat, or I should say, fatter pitch and rely on proprietary origination to try to get them through while public markets and the corollary in private markets did not offer acceptable risk adjusted returns.

    在信貸方面,BBB 企業利差收窄至 100 個基點以下。上一次發生這種情況是在 27 年前,也就是 1998 年。CLO,利差為十年來最低。每位資產經理都面臨選擇。他們可以繼續購買這種趨勢,增加風險,增加槓桿,降低信貸品質以追逐回報,或者他們可以降低風險,降低槓桿,為肥胖做準備,或者我應該說,更肥胖的推銷,並依靠專有發起來試圖讓他們度過難關,而公開市場和私人市場的必然結果並沒有提供可接受的風險調整回報。

  • For us, we found our returns through origination and structure rather than reaching down the credit curve. We have built massive funding and reduced risk. We are well prepared. We believe we are one of the largest active buyers of assets post Liberation Day, $25 billion in April alone.

    對我們來說,我們透過起源和結構而不是信用曲線來獲得回報。我們已經累積了大量資金並降低了風險。我們已經做好了充分的準備。我們相信,我們是解放日後最大的活躍資產買家之一,光是 4 月就購買了 250 億美元。

  • Interestingly, mostly in public markets. Public markets were the fastest to adjust from a price point of view and exhibited what we expect to see going forward: limited liquidity. The equity market pretty much at all times has liquidity, but investors are discovering what we have been saying for years. There just is no liquidity in publicly traded fixed income markets.

    有趣的是,大部分是在公共市場。從價格角度來看,公開市場調整速度最快,並且表現出我們預期的未來趨勢:流動性有限。股票市場幾乎一直都具有流動性,但投資者正在發現我們多年來一直在說的事情。公開交易的固定收益市場缺乏流動性。

  • And therefore, we expect extreme price volatility, to the point where sometimes public markets offer better returns on a risk-adjusted basis than private markets. This philosophy impacts the two businesses. In Asset Management, we are sitting with $64 billion of dry powder.

    因此,我們預期價格會出現極端波動,有時公開市場在風險調整後提供的回報會比私人市場更好。這項理念對兩家企業產生了影響。在資產管理方面,我們擁有 640 億美元的現金儲備。

  • Really strong investment performance. I would highlight particularly in private equity. Private equity, their most recent fund, Fund X, sitting with a net IRR at the end of the quarter up 19% versus 9% for industry peers over the same time period.

    投資績效確實強勁。我想特別強調的是私募股權。私募股權,他們最新的基金,基金 X,在本季末的淨 IRR 成長了 19%,而同期行業同業的淨 IRR 為 9%。

  • Strong DPI. Purchase price simply matters. The philosophy and performance and product breadth is resonating with our client base. Jim will talk to you about what's happening in capital formation, but think about the five or six products that are really scaling. ADS is greater than $20 billion in two years. S3, our secondaries business, $10 billion in less than three years.

    強大的 DPI。購買價格很重要。我們的理念、性能和產品廣度引起了客戶群的共鳴。吉姆將向您介紹資本形成方面正在發生的事情,但請考慮真正正在擴大規模的五到六種產品。兩年內ADS規模超過200億美元。我們的二級市場業務 S3 在不到三年的時間內就達到了 100 億美元。

  • AAA, greater than $20 billion in three years. ABF over $7 billion in less than two years. Accord $8.5 billion in less than two years. We feel good about what we've done. We feel good about the communication we've had with our investors and partners, and they understand our view of markets and how we have prepared for the more volatile environment that we are seeing today.

    AAA,三年內超過200億美元。ABF 在不到兩年的時間內就籌集了超過 70 億美元的資金。在不到兩年的時間內撥款 85 億美元。我們對自己所做的事情感到很滿意。我們對與投資者和合作夥伴的溝通感到滿意,他們了解我們對市場的看法以及我們如何為今天所看到的更動蕩的環境做好準備。

  • In Retirement Services, the macro trend continued to play out, exceptionally strong demand for all forms of guaranteed income, reflecting both higher rates and an aging population. We saw interesting competitive behavior in Q1. Think about this.

    在退休服務方面,宏觀趨勢繼續發揮作用,對各種形式的有保障收入的需求異常強勁,反映出更高的利率和人口老化。我們在第一季看到了有趣的競爭行為。想一想。

  • Corporate spreads collapsed. Prepays of higher yielding assets hit records. And yet we saw increased competition in the most competitive of the channels for retail sales of fixed annuities as competitors try to make up shortfalls with volume and by taking on more risk in asset selection.

    企業利差大幅下跌。高收益資產的預付款創下紀錄。然而,我們看到,在固定年金零售最具競爭力的通路中,競爭日益激烈,因為競爭對手試圖透過增加銷售量和承擔更多資產選擇風險來彌補不足。

  • We chose a different direction. Tighter spreads made it a great time to fund in less competitive channels. We raised $26 billion in the first quarter and another $10 billion in April. We invested that money more in cash, in treasuries, in agencies and paying down leverage.

    我們選擇了不同的方向。利差縮小使得在競爭較少的通路融資成為絕佳時機。我們在第一季籌集了 260 億美元,四月又籌集了 100 億美元。我們將這些資金更多地投資於現金、國債、機構並償還槓桿。

  • That is not without its cost, but it sets us up well in a volatile market. That move toward more cash and less risky assets cost us approximately $15 million in the first quarter, and if not deployed, will cost us some $30 million for the year.

    這並非沒有代價,但它使我們在動盪的市場中處於有利地位。轉向更多現金和更低風險資產的舉措在第一季度花費了我們大約 1500 萬美元,如果不加以利用,全年將花費我們約 3000 萬美元。

  • However, $14 billion was invested in April alone at 50 basis points wider spreads than those available in Q1. Lower rates, now forecast in excess of those that we discussed at Investor Day, plus sizable prepays from the record tight spreads in Q1 will create headwinds.

    然而,光是 4 月的投資就達到 140 億美元,利差比第一季高出 50 個基點。目前預測的較低利率將超過我們在投資者日討論的水平,再加上第一季度創紀錄的低息差帶來的大量預付款,將帶來阻力。

  • The opportunity for us is a strong asset pipeline of proprietary origination, continuation of the wider spreads we're seeing in April, and our ability to run the business in a volatile market because we have prepared for it. We run a theme with a principal mindset and a long-term focus.

    我們的機會在於擁有強大的自營資產管道、四月看到的利差擴大,以及我們在動盪的市場中經營業務的能力,因為我們已經為此做好了準備。我們以主要思維和長期關注為主題。

  • Athene is in an excellent position on an absolute basis relative to nearly all peers, having four different funding channels, which were especially important in Q1, against the backdrop of strong secular demand for retirement products. And as you can see, we are spring loaded on both sides of the balance sheet.

    與幾乎所有同業相比,Athene 在絕對基礎上處於領先地位,擁有四種不同的融資管道,這在第一季退休產品長期需求強勁的背景下尤其重要。如您所見,我們在資產負債表的兩邊都發揮了重要作用。

  • That does not mean it will be straight up, but we are well prepared for volatility and we will react accordingly with our principal hat on, making sure we get the best long-term outcome. Martin will detail for you all the puts and takes for the rest of the year, making a more difficult forecast in an uncertain environment, but one also filled with opportunity.

    這並不意味著它會直線上升,但我們已經為波動做好了充分的準備,我們將以本金的名義做出相應的反應,確保獲得最佳的長期結果。馬丁將為您詳細介紹今年剩餘時間的所有利弊,在不確定的環境中做出更困難的預測,但也充滿機會。

  • Let me return for a moment to the industry that we are in. This is not unique to Apollo. This is the entirety of our industry. We have built this industry over 40 years out of the smallest bucket of our institutional clients called alternatives. We are fortunate we now have another sizable bucket called “individuals”.

    讓我暫時回到我們所處的行業。這並不是阿波羅獨有的。這就是我們整個產業。40 多年來,我們憑藉機構客戶中最小的群體(即另類投資群體)建立了這個產業。我們很幸運,現在我們又有了另一個相當大的桶,叫做「個人」。

  • We have a third bucket, which are retirement services companies who have witnessed the success of Athene and are starting to emulate. We also now have institutions who, for the first time, are entertaining the use of privates, particularly private investment grade in their fixed income bucket, and we expect eventually will replace some portion of their public equity buckets with equity that is private, but that's for another day.

    我們還有第三類,即退休服務公司,它們見證了 Athene 的成功並開始效仿。現在,我們也有一些機構首次考慮在其固定收益產品中使用私募股權,特別是私人投資級股權,我們預計它們最終將用私募股權取代部分公開發行股票,但這是另一回事了。

  • Most interestingly over the second half of last year, and now the beginning of this year, we are seeing yet another source of demand play out, and that is in the form of traditional asset managers. Traditional asset managers are in the process of redefining what active management is.

    最有趣的是,從去年下半年到今年年初,我們看到了另一個需求來源,那就是傳統資產管理者。傳統資產管理者正在重新定義主動式管理。

  • We always thought of active management as the active buying and selling of stocks and bonds. I now believe we will see active management as the public market beta married with appropriate private market assets in structures that investors understand, like mutual funds and ETFs and interval funds and otherwise.

    我們一直認為主動式管理就是主動買賣股票和債券。我現在相信,我們將看到主動管理作為公開市場貝塔與適當的私人市場資產相結合,其結構是投資者可以理解的,例如共同基金、ETF、間隔基金等。

  • These traditional asset managers, I expect, will be large consumers of private assets and will reach clients that our industry probably would not have reached on its own, whether we see the interesting innovations in model portfolios or the interesting partnerships.

    我預計,這些傳統的資產管理者將成為私人資產的巨大消費者,並將接觸到我們行業本身可能無法接觸到的客戶,無論我們看到的是模型投資組合中的有趣創新還是有趣的合作關係。

  • Or we just look at what we're doing on our own, whether it is access to private credit in a daily liquid wrapper through the State Street PRIV ETF, or the income solutions we've launched with Lord Abbett through an interval fund, or it's introducing privates into retirement solutions through a target date fund partnered with State Street.

    或者我們只看看我們自己在做什麼,無論是透過道富銀行 PRIV ETF 獲得每日流動包裝中的私人信貸,還是透過間隔基金與 Lord Abbett 一起推出的收入解決方案,還是透過與道富銀行合作的目標日期基金將私人引入退休解決方案。

  • Across the board we are working with traditional asset managers to integrate private assets in an appropriate way into products that we and the industry never really expected. These strong sources of demand, starting with the original institutional base and now moving all the way for traditional asset management, I think portend very well for our industry. so long as we are focused but not growing too fast.

    我們正在與傳統資產管理公司全面合作,將私人資產以適當的方式整合到我們和業界從未真正預料到的產品中。我認為,這些強勁的需求來源,從最初的機構基礎開始,現在一直延伸到傳統資產管理,對我們的產業來說是一個好兆頭。只要我們集中精力,但不要發展得太快。

  • Too fast to me, we are in the business of excess return per unit of risk, therefore, we are able to grow only as fast as we are able to originate good assets that offer those risk or reward characteristics. Thus, our relentless focus on origination as much as we possibly can across the board in most of the asset classes.

    對我來說太快了,我們從事的是每單位風險的超額回報業務,因此,我們的成長速度取決於我們能夠產生提供這些風險或回報特徵的優質資產的速度。因此,我們盡可能不懈地關注大多數資產類別的起源。

  • We are also seeing interesting innovations across our business that I would call out, not just in traditional asset management, but the early signs of progress in defined contribution, in 401(k) and tax advantaged, tokenization and digital markets, structured notes and portfolio solutions. I expect the level of creativity at our firm and in our industry to create interesting opportunities, again boosting demand for private assets.

    我想指出的是,我們也看到了整個業務中有趣的創新,不僅是在傳統資產管理領域,而且在固定繳款、401(k)和稅收優惠、代幣化和數位市場、結構性票據和投資組合解決方案方面也出現了進展的早期跡象。我希望我們公司和行業的創造力水平能夠創造有趣的機會,再次推動對私人資產的需求。

  • And as you know, I am very bullish on the demand for private assets. And most days, I wake up concerned more about the supply and thus origination. Uncertainty leads to volatility, but volatility historically has been our friend. We would rather have uncertainty from our current position of strength than any other way.

    如你所知,我非常看好私人資產的需求。大多數時候,我醒來時更關心的是供應和起源。不確定性會導致波動,但從歷史上看,波動一直是我們的朋友。我們寧願在現有的實力地位上承受不確定性,也不願以任何其他方式承受不確定性。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

    說完這些,我就把電話轉給吉姆。

  • James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

    James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

  • Thanks, Marc. I'd like to start by sharing some perspective and view on the recent market volatility. The current administration was clear on their objectives pre and post-election. They want to revitalize American industry, bring back manufacturing, focus on domestic energy production and stimulate the industrial global renaissance. Tariff, taxes and regulation are the three-legged stool to support these objectives. While the tariffs should not have come as a surprise, the scope and approach clearly rattled markets.

    謝謝,馬克。首先,我想分享一些關於近期市場波動的觀點和看法。現任政府對選舉前和選舉後的目標都很明確。他們希望振興美國工業,恢復製造業,專注於國內能源生產並刺激全球工業復興。關稅、稅收和監管是支持這些目標的三條腿的凳子。雖然這些關稅並不令人意外,但其範圍和方式顯然令市場感到不安。

  • At Apollo, we've been preparing for this environment like this environment and positioning the firm, as Marc mentioned defensively, in anticipation of this market disruption with dry powder and liquidity to thrive. As a reminder, we run our business as an equal opportunity investor with the ability to pivot between public and private primary and secondary, allowing us to focus on the most compelling risk reward.

    在阿波羅,我們一直在為這種環境做準備,並對公司進行定位,正如馬克防禦性地提到的那樣,以應對這種市場混亂,並利用乾粉和流動性來蓬勃發展。提醒一下,我們以平等機會投資者的身份開展業務,能夠在公共和私人一級和二級市場之間轉換,從而讓我們能夠專注於最引人注目的風險回報。

  • As market structure has evolved and private credit has grown far beyond direct lending to include vast pools of investment-grade assets, we believe our presence has been amplified given the differentiated model and strong relative position to address this broader opportunity set.

    隨著市場結構的演變和私人信貸遠遠超出直接貸款的範圍,涵蓋了大量投資級資產,我們相信,憑藉差異化的模式和強大的相對地位,我們的存在感將得到擴大,從而能夠抓住更廣泛的機會。

  • Our long-dated capital has clearly demonstrated its capacity in the investment-grade arena, complementing our expertise in the noninvestment-grade arena over time. In recent months when public markets went no bid, we brought our own bid.

    我們的長期資本已清楚地展示了其在投資等級領域的能力,並隨著時間的推移補充了我們在非投資等級領域的專業知識。最近幾個月,當公開市場沒有出價時,我們提出了自己的出價。

  • This wasn't just liquidity, it was leadership. For some, capital light has become code for heads we win, tails we win, and hopefully, our clients do okay. In contrast, our aligned client centric model, along with our principal driven balance sheet, allows our platform a degree of maneuverability that is unmatched.

    這不僅是流動性,更是領導力。對某些人來說,輕資本已經成為我們贏錢、贏錢的代名詞,並且希望我們的客戶一切安好。相較之下,我們以客戶為中心的模式以及以本金為導向的資產負債表,使我們的平台具有無與倫比的可操作性。

  • Over many years, we built a platform to deliver stable, strong performance for our clients, and Q1 was no exception. Touching on origination. As Marc mentioned we originated $56 billion of assets during the quarter, representing nearly a 30% growth year-over-year.

    多年來,我們建立了一個平台,為客戶提供穩定、強勁的效能,Q1 也不例外。觸及起源。正如馬克所提到的,我們在本季創造了 560 億美元的資產,年成長近 30%。

  • This result was driven by activity across our diversified channels, platforms, core credit, high grade corporate solutions, equity and hybrid. And significant momentum to start the year positions us to hit our full year targets of exceeding last year's level record level of volume. Even with credit spreads at or near generational tights, the advantages of our origination engine shine through.

    這一結果是由我們多元化管道、平台、核心信貸、高級企業解決方案、股票和混合活動所推動的。今年年初的強勁勢頭使我們能夠實現全年目標,超過去年創紀錄的銷售水平。即使信用利差處於或接近代際緊張水平,我們的發起引擎的優勢仍然凸顯。

  • For example, our 16 affiliated platforms and core credit channels, we originated nearly $49 billion of assets at 200 to 250 basis points of excess spread versus comparable rated corporates, or 300 to 375 over comparable treasuries. In the first quarter, we observed market tightening of approximately 30 basis points to levels representing generational tights before subsequent widening of 30 to 45 basis points in April.

    例如,我們透過 16 個附屬平台和核心信貸管道,發放了近 490 億美元的資產,與同類評級企業相比,利差高出 200 至 250 個基點,與同類國債相比,利差高出 300 至 375 個基點。在第一季度,我們觀察到市場收緊了約 30 個基點,達到代表世代緊縮的水平,然後在 4 月擴大了 30 至 45 個基點。

  • Our origination activity continues to be very broad-based with diversified flow that is not dependent on any one platform or transaction. The deep dive we originated over $11 billion via the broad sponsor channel in more than 80 different financing opportunities, showcasing our leading presence and depth in connectivity to the market.

    我們的發起活動繼續具有廣泛的基礎和多樣化的流程,不依賴任何一個平台或交易。我們透過廣泛的贊助商管道在 80 多個不同的融資機會中籌集了超過 110 億美元的資金,展示了我們領先的地位和與市場聯繫的深度。

  • Just recently, our leadership in the financing for Karo Healthcare, sponsored by KKR, is another example where we stepped into a structure at attractive financing solutions in lieu of a broadly syndicated loan package. The sponsor selected of the Apollo-led consortium owing to our speed of execution and certainty of closing. We believe wins like this create a flywheel effect where demonstrating results lead us being the first call for solutions to broad clients.

    就在最近,我們在由 KKR 贊助的 Karo Healthcare 融資中發揮了領導作用,這是另一個例子,我們採用有吸引力的融資解決方案結構來代替廣泛的銀團貸款方案。由於我們的執行速度和完成的確定性,我們被阿波羅主導的財團選中作為贊助商。我們相信,這樣的勝利會產生飛輪效應,展示的成果會讓我們成為廣大客戶第一個尋求解決方案的公司。

  • Elsewhere, within our infrastructure and energy investing franchise we signed, committed or deployed over $3 billion during the quarter across a half-dozen opportunities across the globe, highlighting our growing presence to originate with and finance the ongoing global industrial renaissance.

    此外,在我們的基礎設施和能源投資特許經營權中,我們在本季度簽署、承諾或部署了超過 30 億美元的資金,涉及全球六個投資機會,凸顯了我們日益增長的影響力,以發起和資助正在進行的全球工業復興。

  • This current environment provides an opportunity to stay close to our clients and understand how we can be helpful and best serve their needs. For example, we continue to work closely with our multiple bank partners. The recently announced financing for the Jeppesen carve-out Boeing via our Citi partnership is a great example of our ongoing collaboration.

    當前的環境為我們提供了一個與客戶保持密切聯繫的機會,並了解我們如何提供幫助並最好地滿足他們的需求。例如,我們繼續與多家銀行合作夥伴密切合作。我們最近宣布透過與花旗銀行的合作為傑普遜分拆波音公司提供融資,這就是我們持續合作的一個很好的例子。

  • During this time, our scaled durable capital base and structuring expertise allowed us to offer flexible solutions with certainty for borrowers. As a result, our origination pipeline in a variety of areas, with particular focus on high-grade capital solutions and hybrid, has never been broader and wider. Turning to capital formation.

    在此期間,我們規模龐大、持久的資本基礎和結構專業知識使我們能夠為借款人提供靈活且確定的解決方案。因此,我們在各個領域的發起管道,特別是對高階資本解決方案和混合的關注,從未如此廣泛。轉向資本形成。

  • We generated record quarterly organic inflows of $43 billion across the business, comprised of $18 billion from asset management and a remarkable $26 billion from Athene. Our capital formation engine is highly differentiated and less prone to cyclical fundraising dynamics. And our historical strong presence within the institutional channel are building momentum in wealth channel, and our market leadership in Retirement Services is a formidable combination.

    我們整個業務的季度有機流入達到了創紀錄的 430 億美元,其中來自資產管理的 180 億美元和來自 Athene 的 260 億美元。我們的資本形成引擎高度差異化,不易受到週期性籌資動態的影響。我們在機構管道中的歷史強勢地位正在財富管道中積聚勢頭,而我們在退休服務領域的市場領導地位是一個強大的組合。

  • Within the $18 billion of inflows from asset management in the quarter, approximately 70% went to credit oriented strategies and 30% to equity oriented strategies, with contribution coming from a broad array of investors around the globe.

    本季資產管理流入的 180 億美元中,約 70% 用於信貸導向策略,30% 用於股票導向策略,貢獻來自全球廣泛的投資者。

  • Two strategies in particular, our Cord Plus, our opportunistic credit strategy, and S3 our sponsor and secondary solutions, both recently held successful final closings that demonstrate that our approach is resonating. S3 Equity and Hybrid Solutions Fund I closed with $5.4 billion in commitments, bringing total capital raised across the S3 ecosystem to nearly $10 billion since launching three years ago.

    特別是我們的兩個策略,即我們的機會主義信貸策略 Cord Plus 和我們的贊助商和二級解決方案 S3,最近都成功完成了最終交割,這表明我們的方法引起了共鳴。S3 股票和混合解決方案基金 I 已完成 54 億美元的承諾募集,使 S3 生態系統自三年前推出以來籌集的總資本達到近 100 億美元。

  • And our Cord Plus Fund II closed with $4.8 billion of commitments, which when combined with the associated managed accounts bring the capital brings the capital raise for this strategy to $8.5 billion in less than two years.

    我們的 Cord Plus Fund II 已獲得 48 億美元的承諾,加上相關管理帳戶的資金,在不到兩年的時間內,該策略的融資金額已達到 85 億美元。

  • Global Wealth continues to be an important strategic contributor to our growth, and we are extremely excited on the momentum we are seeing in that business. The emergence of a market volatility did not have an observable impact as we generated our best fundraising quarter-to-date, approaching $5 billion in the quarter, and 85% year-over-year increase from one quarter '24.

    全球財富繼續成為我們成長的重要策略貢獻者,我們對該業務的發展勢頭感到非常興奮。市場波動的出現並未產生明顯的影響,因為我們實現了本季迄今為止最好的融資額,接近 50 億美元,與 2024 年一個季度相比增長了 85%。

  • And I would add that, that's across 18 separate strategies, encompassing our semi-liquid suite as well as a variety of drawdown and QP offerings. We saw notable strength in Asia during the quarter as our offering continues to gain traction in that region. We continue to effectively scale the business with six strategies now above $1 billion in AUM.

    我想補充一點,這涉及 18 種不同的策略,包括我們的半流動性套件以及各種提取和 QP 產品。本季度,我們在亞洲表現出了顯著的實力,因為我們的產品在該地區繼續受到歡迎。我們持續透過六項策略有效擴大業務規模,目前資產管理規模已超過 10 億美元。

  • And while still early, the growth trends in the wealth channel are showing signs of durability post Liberation Day. Athene had an outstanding quarter, as mentioned with $26 billion of organic flows the highest results on record. By channel, inflows were driven by $10 billion from retail, $11 billion from funding agreements and $5 billion in flow reinsurance.

    儘管還處於早期階段,但解放日之後財富管道的成長趨勢已顯示出持久的跡象。如上文所述,Athene 本季表現出色,有機流入金額達 260 億美元,創歷史新高。按通路劃分,流入資金來自零售 100 億美元、融資協議 110 億美元和流量再保險 50 億美元。

  • Retail flows were led in strength by MYGAs and FIAs. And the FABN issuance was the strongest on record as we leaned in and took advantage of very favorable issuance spreads, as Marc mentioned. In flow reinsurance, we capitalize on the strategic opportunity in the US client with a US client that drove outsized volume. As we progress throughout the year, we continue to expect Athene's mix of new business will look like last year, with strong activity in the funding agreement and retail channels.

    零售流量主要由 MYGA 和 FIA 帶動。正如馬克所提到的那樣,由於我們利用了非常有利的發行利差,FABN 的發行量是有史以來最強勁的。在流量再保險方面,我們利用美國客戶的策略機遇,與美國客戶一起推動了超額交易量。隨著全年的進展,我們繼續預計 Athene 的新業務組合將與去年類似,融資協議和零售通路將表現強勁。

  • Athene remains extremely well-positioned to serve the enormous needs of the growing retiree population, and executing on this opportunity will enable Athene to durably grow earnings in the future. Our team remains focused on serving our clients and deserving our promise of excess return. We are leaning into areas of imbalance between capital and opportunity.

    Athene 仍然處於非常有利的位置,可以滿足日益增長的退休人口的巨大需求,而抓住這一機會將使 Athene 在未來實現收益的持續增長。我們的團隊始終專注於服務客戶,兌現我們超額回報的承諾。我們正傾向於資本和機會不平衡的領域。

  • And we have been extremely active in the market over the past month leaning into volatility with size, speed and structure. We are viewed as a partner of choice to provide capital solutions to companies unable to go public, provide liquidity solutions to GPs that need realizations, and provide alternative pools of capital to public companies seeking fund diversification or simply CapEx growth.

    過去一個月,我們在市場上非常活躍,傾向於規模、速度和結構的波動。我們被視為首選合作夥伴,為無法上市的公司提供資本解決方案,為需要實現的 GP 提供流動性解決方案,並為尋求基金多元化或僅僅是資本支出增長的上市公司提供替代資本池。

  • If the client of dialogue in recent weeks is any barometer of the demand of our services then the outlook for Apollo is very, very bright. The open architecture and integrated model of our firm allows us to pivot and navigate swiftly in periods of short or extreme volatility.

    如果最近幾週對話的客戶可以作為我們服務需求的晴雨表,那麼阿波羅的前景將非常非常光明。我們公司的開放式架構和整合模式使我們能夠在短期或極端波動時期迅速調整和導航。

  • The recent stretch has clearly been one of our busiest in the last few years, and we are approaching the opportunity from a position in strength. Since the beginning of April, in addition to what Marc mentioned as the IG activity of gross $27 billion, we have participated in over 40 direct-lending or financing transactions and have also seen strong activity in the NAV loan finance sector. Our pipelines remain incredibly robust across our firm.

    最近的一段時間顯然是我們過去幾年中最忙碌的一段時間,我們正以強大的實力抓住這個機會。自 4 月初以來,除了馬克提到的總額為 270 億美元的 IG 活動外,我們還參與了 40 多筆直接貸款或融資交易,並且還看到 NAV 貸款融資領域的活躍度很高。我們整個公司的管道仍然非常強勁。

  • With that, let me turn the call over to Martin.

    說完這些,讓我把電話轉給馬丁。

  • Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer

    Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Jim and good morning, everyone. Our Q1 results demonstrate the strength of our platform and our ability to execute in a dynamic environment. I will quickly walk through our financial results, highlight some key drivers that will position the balance of the year and then touch on capital allocation.

    謝謝,吉姆,大家早安。我們的第一季業績證明了我們平台的實力以及我們在動態環境中的執行能力。我將快速介紹我們的財務業績,重點介紹一些決定全年業績的關鍵驅動因素,然後談及資本配置。

  • FRE. In Asset Management, we generated $559 million of fee-related earnings for the quarter, a new record. FRE grew by 21% year-over-year and was driven by 3 components: 18% management fee growth with notable strength from credit, which grew by 23%; capital solutions fees of more than $150 million for the quarter, a very strong outcome in view of the emerging volatility, and expense discipline with combined comp and non-comp expenses growing by 11% year-over-year.

    免費。在資產管理方面,我們本季創造了 5.59 億美元的費用相關收益,創下新高。FRE 年成長 21%,主要由三個因素推動:管理費成長 18%,其中信貸成長顯著,成長了 23%;本季資本解決方案費用超過 1.5 億美元,考慮到新出現的波動性以及費用控制,這是一個非常強勁的結果,合併後的營業和非營業費用同比增長 11%。

  • The uptick in compensation expense reflects continued investments across our business to execute on our broad set of growth opportunities. 17% overall revenue growth combined with 11% overall cost growth resulted in approximately 200 basis points of FRE margin expansion year-over-year. Consistent with prior comments, we remain confident in the long-term margin potential of the business and expect to see expansion over a multi-year period as our business continues to scale.

    薪酬費用的上升反映了我們在整個業務範圍內持續進行投資,以實現廣泛的成長機會。 17% 的總收入成長加上 11% 的總成本成長導致 FRE 利潤率年增約 200 個基點。與先前的評論一致,我們仍然對該業務的長期利潤潛力充滿信心,並預計隨著業務規模的不斷擴大,未來多年內該業務將實現擴張。

  • Key drivers within our FRE growth plan for 2025 includes sustained momentum in global wealth, continued strength in third-party credit more broadly in particular, our asset-backed finance business and our origination platforms, and growth in PE adjacent businesses within equity, specifically hybrid value and secondaries. Given the momentum we see in the business, we are very confident in our 2025 earnings guidance.

    我們 2025 年 FRE 成長計畫中的關鍵驅動因素包括全球財富的持續成長、第三方信貸的持續強勁成長(特別是我們的資產支持融資業務和發起平台),以及股權領域 PE 關聯業務的成長(特別是混合價值和二級市場)。鑑於我們看到的業務勢頭,我們對 2025 年的獲利預測非常有信心。

  • SRE. At the same time, Athene's business is facing a number of market driven uncertainties, which I will touch on in a minute. Athene's net invested assets grew by 15% year-over-year, driven by record organic inflows with strength across the three channels that Jim just highlighted. We generated $826 million of SRE for the quarter, excluding notable items. Adjusting to our long term 11% return expectation on the alternatives portfolio will contribute an additional $29 million in investment income.

    上層建築。同時,Athene 的業務面臨著許多市場驅動的不確定性,我稍後會談到這些不確定性。Athene 的淨投資資產年增 15%,這得益於 Jim 剛才強調的三個通路強勁的創紀錄有機流入。不包括值得注意的項目,本季我們產生了 8.26 億美元的 SRE。根據我們對另類投資組合的長期 11% 回報預期進行調整,將帶來額外的 2,900 萬美元投資收益。

  • The alts return for the quarter came in higher than our pre-release estimates due to positive valuation adjustments amid late quarter volatility. The notable item in the quarter stem from a change to how we recognize income on certain derivatives and resulted in a $22 million unfavorable impact within cost of funds within the quarter. In spread terms, net spread, ex-notables, of 129 basis points declined by 8 basis points sequentially. And you can see the components clearly laid out on the bridge we provided within our earnings presentation.

    由於季度末波動期間的積極估值調整,本季的山寨幣回報率高於我們發布前的估計。本季值得注意的項目源自於我們確認某些衍生性商品收入的方式的變化,並導致本季資金成本產生 2,200 萬美元的不利影響。從利差來看,除淨利差為 129 個基點,季減 8 個基點。您可以在收益報告中清楚地看到我們在橋樑上提供的組件。

  • Recall that spread related earnings and net spread results are partly a function of the environment and partly from proactive choices we are taking to position the business for long-term success. Relative to our SRE target for the year of $3.5 billion, which contemplated an 11% alts return. We are seeing 1.5 additional rate cuts, which is about a $40 million headwind if realized; competitive pressure in the retail channel of approximately 10 basis points on an assumed $35 billion to $40 billion of volume, along with $40 million of headwinds from higher asset prepayments. Those are the headwinds along with the liquidity builds, that Marc referenced earlier. And collectively, they impact both our net investment income and our cost of funds trends.

    回想一下,利差相關收益和淨利差結果部分取決於環境,部分取決於我們為實現業務的長期成功所採取的主動選擇。相對於我們今年 35 億美元的 SRE 目標,預計回報率為 11%。我們看到還有 1.5 次降息,如果實現,將帶來約 4,000 萬美元的不利影響;假設零售通路的銷售量為 350 億至 400 億美元,那麼零售通路的競爭壓力將增加約 10 個基點,同時資產預付款增加還將帶來 4000 萬美元的阻力。正如馬克之前提到的,這些都是流動性增強帶來的不利因素。總的來說,它們影響著我們的投資淨收益和資金成本趨勢。

  • In view of these dynamics and assuming normalized investment spreads for the balance of the year, instead of the wider spread conditions in April, we expect a mid-single-digit growth rate for 2025 off the rebased $3.2 billion starting point. We have an opportunity to earn some of this back-based on the deployment pipeline and market volatility providing wider spreads, in which case our growth rate will be higher.

    鑑於這些動態,並假設今年剩餘時間的投資利差正常化,而不是 4 月利差擴大的情況,我們預計 2025 年的成長率將達到中等個位數,以重新調整後的 32 億美元為起點。我們有機會獲得部分回報——基於部署管道和市場波動提供的更大利差,在這種情況下我們的成長率將會更高。

  • While different macro or business variables come into play in any given year, you should trust that we'll do sensible things to navigate the environment, and we remain focused on delivering the 10% average growth we laid out within our five-year plan.

    雖然每年都會有不同的宏觀或商業變數發揮作用,但您應該相信我們會採取明智的措施來應對環境,並且我們仍然專注於實現五年計劃中設定的 10% 的平均成長率。

  • Turning finally to capital allocation. We deployed over $700 million for share repurchases in the first quarter including $130 million for opportunistic buybacks. As we have done in the past, we will seek to be relatively more active when there are particularly compelling opportunities or dislocation in our share price.

    最後談談資本配置。我們在第一季投入了超過 7 億美元用於股票回購,其中包括 1.3 億美元用於機會性回購。正如我們過去所做的那樣,當我們的股價出現特別引人注目的機會或錯位時,我們將尋求相對更加積極主動。

  • Over the last 12 months, we've returned $1.7 billion of capital to shareholders through a combination of dividends and opportunistic share repurchases while also allocating more than $200 million of capital to strategically invest in future growth initiatives. During the quarter, we announced the acquisition of Bridge Investment Group in an all-stock transaction with an equity value of approximately $1.5 billion.

    在過去的 12 個月中,我們透過股息和機會性股票回購等方式向股東返還了 17 億美元的資本,同時也分配了超過 2 億美元的資本用於策略性地投資未來的成長計畫。本季度,我們宣布以全股票交易的方式收購 Bridge Investment Group,股權價值約 15 億美元。

  • Bridge is an established leader in residential and industrial real estate, as well as other specialized real estate asset classes. We believe Bridge will enhance our existing real estate business, providing immediate scale and origination capabilities that fit synergistically within Apollo's ecosystem, in particular, asset demand from Athene and ARIS, our semi-liquid real estate-oriented products. We look forward to welcoming the Bridge team on board later this year. and we expect the transaction to close in Q3, subject to outstanding closing conditions.

    Bridge 是住宅和工業房地產以及其他專業房地產資產類別的領導者。我們相信 Bridge 將增強我們現有的房地產業務,提供即時規模和發起能力,與 Apollo 的生態系統協同發展,特別是來自我們的半流動性房地產導向產品 Athene 和 ARIS 的資產需求。我們期待今年稍後歡迎 Bridge 團隊的加入。我們預計該交易將在第三季完成,但需滿足尚未完成的成交條件。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

    說完這些,我會將電話轉回接線生進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Glenn Schorr of Evercore ISI.

    Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

  • Glenn Schorr - Analyst

    Glenn Schorr - Analyst

  • Hello, there. I apologize in advance. I want to try to simplify the conversation, even though you gave us a lot on SRE. And I'm thinking, a couple of years ago, we thought we were growing, I would say, call it mid-double digits. We brought that guide down to 11%, and now we're coming down to mid-single digits just this year. I like you being conservative to the environment and waiting for a fat pitch. I like the growth that you've seen.

    你好呀。我提前致歉。儘管您給了我們很多有關 SRE 的信息,但我想嘗試簡化對話。我在想,幾年前,我們認為我們正在成長,我會說,稱之為中兩位數。我們將這項指導值降至 11%,而今年這一數字已降至中等個位數。我喜歡你對環境保持保守並等待肥沃的土壤。我喜歡你所看到的成長。

  • So can we break down the lower SRE on which piece is the conservative part of the investments and what conditions could make you less conservative and put that money to work sooner? And then the flip side of it is we didn't talk that much of there is a higher cost of funds. Cost of funds is up 28%.

    那麼,我們能否將較低的 SRE 分解為哪部分是投資的保守部分,以及什麼條件可以讓你不那麼保守,並讓你更快地將這筆錢投入使用?另一方面,我們並沒有過多談論資金成本的提高。資金成本上漲了28%。

  • I'm assuming that's tied to funding agreements. But maybe we could try to simplify between the asset side and the liability side, and then we can understand which is the conservative piece versus the market environment. Thanks.

    我認為這與融資協議有關。但也許我們可以嘗試簡化資產方和負債方,然後我們可以了解哪個是保守的部分,哪個是市場環境。謝謝。

  • Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's Marc. I'll do the macro and then Martin will do some of the micro. We underwrite the business on a spread basis and an ROE basis. Some products offer higher spread but are more capital intensive, some products are lower spread but are more capital efficient.

    是馬克。我負責宏觀部分,然後馬丁負責一些微觀部分。我們根據利差和 ROE 來承保業務。有些產品提供較高的利差,但資本密集度較高,有些產品利差較低,但資本效率較高。

  • So we also have adjustments in the spread that we earn. Our goal is to run a mid-teens, historically 15-plus percent ROE business. If we run a 15% ROE business, we are more than covering our cost of equity and we are able to get outside funders to help us fund our business, and that's the basis on which we want to do business.

    因此,我們也對所賺取的利差進行了調整。我們的目標是經營 ROE 達到十幾歲、歷史上達到 15% 以上的企業。如果我們經營的 ROE 業務達到 15%,那麼我們就不但能收回股權成本,還能獲得外部資助者幫助我們獲得業務資金,這就是我們開展業務的基礎。

  • Recall that to do that business, there is actually three things that get you to real spread. The first is your asset spread. The second is your cost of liabilities. And the third, and the one we don't talk about often enough is OpEx, which is very, very low for us on a relative basis.

    回想一下,要做那件生意,實際上有三件事可以讓你真正傳播開來。首先是你的資產利差。第二個是你的負債成本。第三,也是我們很少談論的一點是營運支出,相對而言,這對我們來說非常非常低。

  • What we saw and so now I'll step back and think about what's happened. We went through COVID, and COVID offered some of the widest spread business we had ever seen. That business will roll off as you know, throughout '25 and through a portion of '26.

    我們看到了什麼,所以現在我會退一步思考發生了什麼。我們經歷了新冠疫情,新冠疫情帶來了一些我們從未見過的最廣泛的業務。如您所知,這項業務將在 2025 年全年以及 2026 年的部分時間順利進行。

  • But the volume by which we've been doing business has been very, very strong because you've seen a significant tick-up in volume over the past few years. We've been doing that higher-volume business at lighter spread.

    但我們的業務量一直非常非常大,因為過去幾年我們已經看到業務量顯著成長。我們一直以較小的價差開展更大額度的業務。

  • The conditions we saw in December and in the first quarter were not, in my opinion healthy competitive conditions to put risk on the books. I can only imagine what's happening on a competitive basis given that we are 25 basis points ahead just on OpEx before you get to origination.

    在我看來,我們在 12 月和第一季看到的情況並不是健康的競爭條件,不宜承擔風險。我只能想像在競爭基礎上會發生什麼,因為在開始之前我們在營運支出方面就領先了 25 個基點。

  • But what we chose to do was to massively increase our use of funding agreements, which are the least competitive channel for us and to pile up cash in Q1. That allows us and we do that by increasing cash balances, by increasing treasury balances, by increasing agencies and by paying down repo and other forms of leverage, including FHLB.

    但我們選擇大幅增加融資協議的使用,這對我們來說是競爭力最低的管道,並且是為了在第一季累積現金。這使我們能夠做到這一點,我們透過增加現金餘額、增加國庫餘額、增加代理商以及償還回購和其他形式的槓桿(包括 FHLB)來實現這一點。

  • All that sets you up to redraw that when spreads widen, which is what we saw in the beginning of April and as we put money to work. So now to your question of outlook. Outlook is in part driven by the interest rate environment. As you know, we have some sensitivity on a reduced basis to interest rates.

    當利差擴大時,所有這些都會讓你重新繪製圖表,這就是我們在 4 月初和投入資金時看到的情況。現在來回答你關於展望的問題。前景在一定程度上受利率環境影響。如您所知,我們對利率的敏感度有所降低。

  • But relative to where we had been, we now have 1.5 more rate cuts. That is a headwind. We had competitive pressure in Q1. That is also a headwind. However, we saw massive spread widening in the beginning of Q2.

    但相對於之前的水平,我們現在又降息了 1.5 次。這是不利的。我們在第一季面臨競爭壓力。這也是一種不利因素。然而,我們在第二季初看到利差大幅擴大。

  • When Martin frames the year, the question is do we see a return to normal, which is what is presumed and what Martin has said. Or do we see a continuation of widespread business that we're seeing in April? That will determine the direction. Martin has given you the conservative side of that because that is what we do.

    當馬丁規劃這一年時,問題是我們是否看到了恢復正常,這是人們的假設,也是馬丁所說的。或者我們會看到四月份所見的廣泛業務的延續?這將決定方向。馬丁向你介紹了保守的一面,因為這就是我們所做的。

  • So the opportunities on upside here, in my opinion, are wide spreads derived by a lessening of competitive pressure in the liability origination cost of funds area and a strong pipeline of asset management at wide spread which was particularly good and rewarding in April. So that would be my macro, and I'll let Martin add to that and see if we can do better.

    因此,我認為,這裡的上行機會是由於資金負債發起成本領域的競爭壓力減弱而產生的廣泛利差,以及廣泛利差的強大資產管理管道,這在 4 月份尤為良好且有益。這就是我的宏,我會讓馬丁補充這一點,看看我們是否可以做得更好。

  • Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer

    Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer

  • I would only add as we look at the earnings profile ahead of us, there is pieces that we know and can predict with high certainty, and that's the behavior of the existing business and how it rolls off over time contractually. And then there is pieces of it that are sort of expectations, which include prepays.

    我只想補充一點,當我們展望未來的盈利狀況時,有些部分是我們知道並且可以高度確定地預測的,那就是現有業務的行為以及它如何隨著時間的推移按照合同進行。其中有一些部分是預期,包括預付款。

  • And we obviously make assumptions and estimates about prepays, but given the extraordinarily tight conditions we saw on spreads in CLOs in Q1, prepays are running a bit higher than we had forecast. And then you get to the unknowns. And the unknowns are the components that Marc laid out which are rates and both pace and spreads on putting that to work.

    我們顯然對預付款做出了假設和估計,但考慮到我們在第一季看到的 CLO 利差極其緊張的狀況,預付款比我們預測的要高一些。然後你就遇到了未知數。未知數是馬克列出的組成部分,即利率以及實施的速度和利差。

  • So as I think about the relationship between the cost of funds and the net the gross investment income, we are clearly under-earning on the business that we wrote in the quarter relative to the potential it has. And it will take a period of time which we are making estimates around, to earn that back. And that's really the primary uncertainty, both timing and spreads at which that outsized business is put to work.

    因此,當我思考資金成本和淨投資收益之間的關係時,我們本季所從事的業務的收益顯然低於其潛力。我們估計需要一段時間才能賺回這筆錢。這確實是主要的不確定性,包括這項超大規模業務投入營運的時機和利差。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

    沃爾夫研究公司的史蒂文·楚巴克。

  • Steven Chubak - Analyst

    Steven Chubak - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So I was hoping to get some perspective on the wealth outlook. It sounds like you guys are continuing to see really good momentum. I was hoping you could speak to how flows were in AAA this quarter, where you guys are in the distribution or platform journey at the moment, and if you could provide more context just on the durability of those April flows and how it informs your outlook from here.

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。所以我希望對財富前景有一些了解。聽起來你們繼續看到非常好的勢頭。我希望您能談談本季度 AAA 的流量情況,你們目前在分銷或平台旅程中處於什麼位置,以及您是否可以提供更多有關 4 月份流量持久性的背景信息,以及它如何影響您今後的展望。

  • James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

    James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

  • Well let me start off, and I'm sure Marc may have a couple of comments. But I would say, if you go back 24 months ago, in terms of '23, we did $4 billion in the overall channel. If then you go to up to '24, we were at $11 billion. We've been clear with $5 billion in the first quarter this year and we've laid out a number, 16, 17 for the year. We feel quite strong on that number.

    好吧,讓我先開始吧,我相信馬克可能會有幾點評論。但我想說,如果回顧 24 個月前,就 23 年以來,我們在整個通路的銷售額為 40 億美元。如果你算上 24 年的數據,我們的收入已經達到 110 億美元。我們已經明確今年第一季的支出為 50 億美元,並且我們已經制定了全年的支出目標,160 億美元、170 億美元。我們對這個數字感到非常滿意。

  • There is no doubt there has been breadth in a variety of vehicles, ADS, AAA, ABC. AAA had solid numbers across the quarter and was not an outlier to the upside or the downside. So what's clear to us is the and we mentioned this before, performance is critical, but it is also technology, it’s education, it’s the platform.

    毫無疑問,各種車輛、ADS、AAA、ABC 都有廣泛的應用。AAA 整個季度的業績表現穩健,沒有任何異常成長或下降。因此,我們清楚的是,正如我們之前提到的,性能至關重要,但它也是技術、教育和平台。

  • It’s the ability to have portfolio solutions. In time, it will be your ability to fund and finance and really provide the breadth of products. So we didn’t see any wavering in the first part of April. April has been a strong month as well. But it’s we do live in a bit of an uncertain world, but we still feel very strong about the rest of the year in aggregate on this channel.

    這是擁有投資組合解決方案的能力。隨著時間的推移,它將是您提供資金和融資並真正提供廣泛產品的能力。因此,我們在四月上旬沒有看到任何動搖。四月也是一個強勁的月份。但我們確實生活在一個有點不確定的世界,但總體而言,我們在這個頻道上對今年剩餘時間的前景仍然充滿信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Blostein from Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的亞歷克斯·布洛斯坦。

  • Alex Blostein - Analyst

    Alex Blostein - Analyst

  • Hi guys. Good morning thank you. I was hoping we could expand the fundraising conversation a little bit more broadly. It obviously feels like retail and the wealth channel continues to be durable with respect to the current market uncertainty.

    嗨,大家好。早安,謝謝。我希望我們可以更廣泛地擴大籌款對話。顯然,就當前市場的不確定性而言,零售和財富管道似乎仍將持續存在。

  • When you think about how your institutional client base is responding, and appreciate you guys actually don't have a large flagship fund in the market today, which might be might actually be a good thing right now. But as you think about other sources of institutional demand in-light of this volatility, how much more I guess, durability do you see within that channel relative to maybe some of the other parts of the market?

    當你考慮到你的機構客戶群的反應時,你會意識到你們今天在市場上實際上並沒有大型旗艦基金,這實際上可能是一件好事。但是,考慮到這種波動性,當您考慮其他機構需求來源時,我猜,相對於市場的其他部分,您認為該管道的持久性有多大?

  • James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

    James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

  • We feel extremely positive about the traction and the dialogue that we are getting from investors around the globe, notwithstanding some of the actions would have taken place in the administration. I would take a step back, we believe we have under hit our weight in terms of grabbing our fair share over the last couple of years. We are continuing to grow that.

    儘管有些行動是政府採取的,但我們對來自全球投資者的推動和對話感到非常樂觀。我想退一步說,我們認為,過去幾年來,我們在爭取公平份額方面做得還不夠。我們正在繼續發展這項事業。

  • And when I see the dialogue, what Marc described, is our purchase price matters. We are not in the apology tour around the globe. And people have seen the breadth and success of a variety of our investment strategies, from the equity business across the Board to our hybrid business and the breadth of our credit business.

    當我看到對話時,馬克所描述的是我們的購買價格很重要。我們並沒有在全球進行道歉之旅。人們已經看到了我們各種投資策略的廣度和成功,從全面的股票業務到混合業務以及信貸業務的廣度。

  • So the call notes that we see, the engagement we see the results we see make us very, very positive, notwithstanding a bit of a macro headwind about how global investors might see the US So we feel our share is going to whatever is out there, we are going to gain share.

    因此,我們看到的電話會議記錄、我們看到的參與度以及我們看到的結果讓我們非常非常樂觀,儘管全球投資者如何看待美國存在一些宏觀阻力,所以我們覺得我們的份額將取決於那裡的情況,我們將獲得份額。

  • The dialogues have been increasing. And I think our strategies in terms of what we see going on in terms of how we run our business, from purchase price matters, to our origination focus to our leadership in ABF, to our leadership in the hybrid areas these are all areas where people are really institutional investors are refocusing their attention, and we are garnering a very strong share.

    對話不斷增加。我認為,就我們的業務運作方式而言,我們的策略包括購買價格問題、我們的起源重點、我們在 ABF 的領導地位、我們在混合領域的領導地位,這些都是人們真正關注的領域,機構投資者正在重新關注這些領域,而我們正在獲得非常大的份額。

  • Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me I'll just add and frame what Jim said. If you go back in just a little bit of history. We were fortunate in the creation of Athene and participating in Athene's growth. But Athene in its early days was growing much faster than Apollo.

    讓我補充並概括一下吉姆所說的話。如果你回顧一下歷史。我們有幸創造了Athene並參與了Athene的成長。但早期的雅典娜的發展速度比阿波羅快得多。

  • And so it was not we were not in a position to really expand the credit business in particular but hybrid as a secondary matter, substantially with third-party clients, Athene was taking everything we produced and more. About four years ago, we finally crested the hill if you will, on origination, and we have continued to diversify.

    因此,我們並不是無法真正擴大信貸業務,而是將混合業務作為次要事項,主要是與第三方客戶合作,Athene 接管了我們生產的所有產品,甚至更多。大約四年前,我們終於在起源上登頂,並且我們繼續實現多元化。

  • So Jim is putting his finger on it. We have historically under earned our fair share of assets from the institutional channel. That has left us with more fertile opportunities going forward. If I look at where the dialogue is coming right now, insurance is a really strong part of this business.

    所以吉姆正在指出這個問題。從歷史上看,我們從機構管道獲得的資產份額不足。這為我們今後的發展留下了更豐富的機會。如果我看一下現在的對話,我會發現保險是這個行業中非常重要的一部分。

  • Not only are they seeing having to deal with the same tight spreads and therefore, need to find ways to diversify, but just the acceptance of private assets as a more mainstream activity is really increasing the opportunity set across the board in insurance.

    他們不僅必須應對同樣緊張的利差,因此需要尋找多樣化的方法,而且私人資產被接受為一種更主流的活動,確實增加了保險領域全面的機會。

  • I would say we are origination constrained rather than client constrained in the investment-grade portion of the business. Everything we can originate at wide spread, there is a home for. And that business will grow as fast as we can grow origination.

    我想說,在投資等級業務中,我們受到的是起源的限制,而不是客戶的限制。凡是我們可以廣傳的事物,都有其歸宿。而且,我們的業務也會隨著我們的起源的成長而快速成長。

  • And we have to be careful as an industry not to simply raise all the money because we can. We have to try as best we can to pace the growth of the capital side of our business with the growth of origination in our business. And this is a different way of thinking about traditional asset people who cover traditional asset managers, but it is how we live every day.

    作為一個行業,我們必須小心,不要因為我們有能力就籌集所有的資金。我們必須盡最大努力使我們業務資本方面的成長與業務起源方面的成長同步。這是一種與涵蓋傳統資產管理者的傳統資產人士不同的思維方式,但這就是我們每天的生活方式。

  • James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

    James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

  • I have to add here, Marc is bringing up a point. When you think about how you all and how the marketplace looks at our business from a direct lending, it is very, very important for you to be able to commit to that sponsor solution.

    我必須在這裡補充一點,馬克提出了一個觀點。當您考慮您所有人以及市場如何看待我們的直接貸款業務時,對於您來說,能夠致力於該贊助商解決方案是非常非常重要的。

  • The same analogy is going on in the high-grade capital solutions. You can't really work as agent. You need to be a principal investor and being able to go to that counterparty and deliver a solution with capital on the screws. There is a reason why we've done a vast, vast majority of the transactions in the investment-grade capital solutions business. And we will continue to do so, because of our platform in the way that we engage with this aligned capital.

    高階資本解決方案中也存在同樣的情況。你實際上不能擔任經紀人。您需要成為主要投資者,並能夠向交易對手提供資金解決方案。我們在投資等級資本解決方案業務中完成了絕大多數交易是有原因的。我們將繼續這樣做,因為我們的平台可以與這些一致的資本互動。

  • You can't go out and source an idea and then say, we'll, come back in six weeks when our clients want to buy it. And that’s the differentiating factor in our platform. So origination is so tied into capital formation, and that flywheel, that we are taking a garnering a greater share as deserved because of our platform.

    你不能出去尋找一個想法,然後說,當我們的客戶想要購買它時,我們會在六週後回來。這就是我們平台的差異化因素。因此,起源與資本形成和飛輪緊密相關,我們透過我們的平台獲得了應得的更大份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bill Katz of TD Cowan.

    Bill Katz 的 TD Cowan。

  • Bill Katz - Analyst

    Bill Katz - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much. So Marc, a couple of big-picture questions for you. I always appreciate your perspective on this. You talked about sort of the intersection between public and private, and you've been positioning your franchise for that for a while.

    偉大的。非常感謝。那馬克,我想問你幾個宏觀問題。我一直很欣賞你對此的看法。您談到了公共和私人之間的交集,並且您已經為此定位了您的特許經營權。

  • But a couple of your peers have mentioned a sort of link-up on that sort of migration for the traditionals trying to chase the private side and expanding distribution on both sides. So you have KKR now with Capital Group, Blackstone working with Wellington and others. Where do you stand in terms of maybe a broader linkage to potentially participate in that?

    但是您的幾位同事提到了這種遷移的某種聯繫,即傳統企業試圖追逐私人領域並擴大雙方的分銷。因此,現在 KKR 與 Capital Group 合作,Blackstone 與 Wellington 等公司合作。就可能參與其中的更廣泛的聯繫而言,您持什麼立場?

  • And then secondly, just given the strong momentum of the business, how are you thinking about large-scale M&A? I guess there is a large transaction out there where Apollo has been now sort of publicly linked to that. I'm sort of curious of your appetite to sort of build into that channel as well. Thank you.

    其次,鑑於業務的強勁發展勢頭,您如何考慮進行大規模併購?我想那裡有一筆大交易,阿波羅現在已經公開與該交易有聯繫。我有點好奇您是否也有興趣加入該頻道。謝謝。

  • Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. So we have two announced public partnerships, one with State Street and one with Lord, Abbett. I would say this is a very active portion of our business, so much so that if as you follow Apollo closely, you'll notice the peeling off of what we call a new markets group, specifically to focus on traditional asset managers.

    好的。因此,我們宣布了兩家公共合作夥伴關係,一家是與 State Street,另一家是與 Lord, Abbett。我想說這是我們業務中非常活躍的一部分,如果你密切關注阿波羅,你會注意到我們所謂的新市場集團的剝離,特別是專注於傳統資產管理者。

  • And I have said internally in the firm that I expect traditional asset managers to be potentially one of the largest sources of capital formation for us. But I also want to give you the following perspective. No one firm can service Capital Group or State Street or Lord Abbett or Blackrock or anyone else. We are all in the early days, and these partnerships are about experimentation. If we are right, the scale of demand for private assets coming from traditional asset managers is going to be quite large.

    我在公司內部曾表示,我預期傳統資產管理公司可能是我們最大的資本形成來源之一。但我也想給你以下觀點。沒有任何一家公司可以為 Capital Group、State Street、Lord Abbett、Blackrock 或其他任何公司提供服務。我們都處於早期階段,這些合作關係都是為了實驗。如果我們的預測正確,那麼來自傳統資產管理公司的私募資產需求規模將會非常大。

  • I believe we, you, will eventually adopt the kind of thinking that we have, which is this is not about how many of these partnerships I can get papered. It is about how many assets I can originate that are worthy of inclusion because they offer good risk rewards. It is a really weird dynamic over 40 years because, for 40 years, we've gone from a small group of firms doing alternatives to now a fewer number of sizable firms doing private markets. We've always been measured by or limited by our capital base.

    我相信我們,你們,最終會採取我們所擁有的那種思維方式,那就是,這並不是我能獲得多少這樣的合作關係的問題。這關乎我可以創造多少值得納入的資產,因為它們提供了良好的風險回報。40 年來,這是一個非常奇怪的動態,因為 40 年來,我們從一小群從事另類投資的公司變成了現在少數從事私人市場的大型公司。我們始終受到資本基礎的衡量或限制。

  • We are now, in my opinion, limited by our capacity to find good assets. And as Jim said, it is inextricably linked to capital formation because demand for private assets, I believe does in some sectors today, and will, going forward, exceed supply of private assets.

    在我看來,我們現在受限於尋找優質資產的能力。正如吉姆所說,它與資本形成密不可分,因為我相信,目前在某些領域對私人資產的需求確實超過私人資產的供應,而且未來這種需求將超過私人資產的供應。

  • And most people who cover our industry also cover traditional asset managers who historically have been judged by the quality and growth of their AUM. I believe that our industry will need to be much more closely looked at the quality of our origination.

    大多數報道我們行業的人也報道傳統資產管理公司,而這些公司歷來都是根據其資產管理規模 (AUM) 的品質和成長情況來評判的。我相信我們的行業需要更嚴格地審查其起源的品質。

  • And I like these early partnerships because we are learning a tremendous amount, but none of us have the size and scale today or in the future to serve the needs of the 10 largest asset managers on an exclusive basis. I’m very comfortable focused on origination. And if I have a good asset, it will have a hum. I don’t worry about that.

    我喜歡這些早期的合作關係,因為我們學到了很多東西,但我們中沒有一個人擁有現在或將來的規模來獨家滿足十大資產管理公司的需求。我非常樂意專注於起源。如果我擁有一項好的資產,它就會產生效益。我並不擔心這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Davitt from Autonomous Research.

    來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

  • Patrick Davitt - Analyst

    Patrick Davitt - Analyst

  • I have a follow-up on that last point. You have been quietly launched on I guess, more quietly launched than others on this hybrid illiquid, liquid product with Lord Abbett. I think a few weeks before, the other big partnership launched.

    我對最後一點還有後續問題。我想,您已經與 Lord Abbett 一起悄悄地推出了這款混合非流動性、流動性產品,比其他人更悄悄地推出了這款產品。我認為幾週前另一個重要的合作關係就已經啟動。

  • Could you give more color on where that stands in getting distribution and any broader thoughts on being able to talk about when you think there could be a more tangible view of what demand even really looks like for these hybrid products? Thank you.

    您能否更詳細地說明分銷方面的現狀,並談談您認為何時可以更切實地了解這些混合產品的實際需求?謝謝。

  • James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

    James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

  • Well, I think Marc touched upon it. I mean, certainly, these there's a reason why folks are partnering with those traditionals, because of their reach of distribution. We are not traditionally a direct-to-consumer franchise. And so we believe that our ability to whether it is new product creation like we've done with State Street and Lord Abbett, or just basic selling them SMAs or partnering on JVs, there will be a whole litany of types of partnerships, just like there is bank origination partnerships.

    嗯,我認為馬克已經提到了這一點。我的意思是,當然,人們與這些傳統企業合作是有原因的,因為他們的分銷範圍很廣。傳統上,我們並不是直接面向消費者的特許經營店。因此,我們相信,我們有能力創造新產品,就像我們與 State Street 和 Lord Abbett 合作一樣,或者只是向他們出售 SMA 或合作建立合資企業,將會有一系列類型的合作夥伴關係,就像銀行發起合作夥伴關係一樣。

  • Five years ago, when one of us announced a partnership that was thought to be exclusive, and now a variety of banks across a variety of asset classes have partnerships with us and many of our peers. That's what's going to happen in the traditionals as well.

    五年前,我們中的一家宣布了一項被認為是獨家的合作關係,現在各種資產類別的各種銀行都與我們以及我們的許多同行建立了合作關係。這也是傳統中將要發生的事。

  • There will be a degree of open architecture. There will be a degree of desire not to have concentration in one manager. And so these are all early stages to where the business is going. And again when we think about the when you think about the limiting capacity, it is not just aligning yourself with the platform and getting a product on it. It is actually producing the rare commodity, which is these private assets.

    將會有一定程度的開放式建築。人們會在某種程度上不願意把注意力集中在一位經理身上。這些都是業務發展的早期階段。當我們再次考慮限制容量時,這不僅僅是讓自己與平台保持一致並在其上獲得產品。它實際上生產的是稀有商品,也就是這些私人資產。

  • Traditional managers historically have dealt in the sandbox with public stocks and public investment grade bonds. And the sandbox of opportunities is limited to what has a CUSIP. We're bringing in a completely different perspective of actually originating bespoke solutions which we apply.

    傳統管理者歷來在沙盒中處理公共股票和公共投資等級債券。機會沙盒僅限於具有 CUSIP 的沙盒。我們引入了一個完全不同的視角來實際提出我們所應用的客製化解決方案。

  • And so again I do think Lord Abbett has been out there because we had to originally file it over a year ago. Not surprised by what we're seeing out of KKR and Capital Group. But as Marc said, we believe that when we have these calls in the ensuing years, you've talked about the institutional business, you've talked about global wealth, we believe there will be a pillar on traditionals in the broad brush perspective as what we've talked about.

    因此,我再次確認阿貝特勳爵已經在那裡,因為我們最初必須在一年前提交該申請。我們對 KKR 和 Capital Group 的表現並不感到驚訝。但正如馬克所說,我們相信,當我們在接下來的幾年裡進行這些通話時,你們談到了機構業務,談到了全球財富,我們相信,從廣義上講,傳統業務將會成為支柱,就像我們所談論的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Worthington of JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

  • Ken Worthington - Analyst

    Ken Worthington - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for the question. You talked about tokenization as one of the innovations that will be meaningful for private assets over time. I was hoping you could help us link the two, and how you see tokenization driving maybe its greater alternative access and ultimately driving greater alternative asset growth. But help us link the two together.

    嗨,早安。謝謝你的提問。您談到標記化是隨著時間的推移對私人資產有意義的創新之一。我希望您能幫助我們將兩者聯繫起來,並說明您如何看待代幣化推動其更廣泛的替代訪問,並最終推動更大的替代資產成長。但請幫助我們將兩者連結起來。

  • James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

    James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

  • Yeah, I think again, I think you have to tie together. You have to have a view of a degree of open architecture. And we do not hold ourselves out as leading, front edge pioneers in the world of digital finance. But certainly, there has been a tremendous amount of assets raised, a variety of stable value, stablecoin structures.

    是的,我再想想,我認為你們必須團結起來。你必須對一定程度的開放式架構有所了解。我們並不認為自己是數位金融領域的領導者、前沿先驅。但可以肯定的是,已經籌集了大量的資產,各種穩定的價值,穩定的貨幣結構。

  • And as those institutions decide to expand beyond pure treasury investments, UST or otherwise, they will choose other yielding assets. And from what we've seen interval funds, because of the daily NAV and the subscription attributes, are particularly attractive to a variety of potential digital platforms.

    當這些機構決定擴大純國債投資(無論是美國國債還是其他投資)時,它們將選擇其他收益資產。而從我們看到的情況來看,區間基金由於其每日淨資產值和訂閱屬性,對各種潛在的數位平台特別有吸引力。

  • And so we noted on our call, I believe, either last call or two calls, that we had had one of our interval funds over a period of time a variety of subscription into that performing debt vehicle. And I suspect again, in the breadth of open architecture, in scale of distribution, this will be something that potentially expands over time.

    因此,我們在電話會議上指出,我相信,無論是上次電話會議還是兩次電話會議,我們的一個間隔基金在一段時間內對該表現良好的債務工具進行了各種認購。我再次懷疑,在開放式架構的廣度和分佈的規模上,這將隨著時間的推移而不斷擴大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Brown from Wells Fargo Securities.

    富國證券的麥可布朗。

  • Michael Brown - Analyst

    Michael Brown - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So there has been a lot of negative headlines related to foreign LPs and endowments and kind of reducing their allocations to private markets or foreign LPs, allocating less to the US

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。因此,有許多關於外國 LP 和捐贈基金的負面新聞,以及它們減少對私募市場或外國 LP 的配置,減少對美國的配置。

  • So Marc, from your perspective, is this a true risk for the industry? Should we be worried about the potential backlash for US managers or desire to invest less in the US? And then it would seem to me that Apollo would be more insulated from this dynamic just given your business mix, but just curious about how you think about your potential exposure here.

    那麼馬克,從您的角度來看,這對行業來說是一個真正的風險嗎?我們是否應該擔心美國管理者可能遭受的強烈反對,或是希望減少在美國的投資?然後在我看來,考慮到您的業務組合,阿波羅將更能免受這種動態的影響,但我好奇您如何看待您在這裡的潛在風險。

  • Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So again, I'll start with the macro. We have lived through this period of hyper exceptionalism. And I gave you the stats of what had happened to our debt and our equity markets. I believe we are now back to exceptionalism.

    因此,我將再次從巨集開始。我們經歷了這個極度例外主義的時期。我向你們提供了我們的債務和股票市場發生的統計數據。我相信我們現在又回到了例外論。

  • The reality is, at least for the foreseeable future, there are not going to be alternatives to US capital markets for the most, because the US market is still 60% of all the funding needs in the world. We will see reductions in allocations from foreign investors if current trends continue. And I think that's to be expected.

    現實情況是,至少在可預見的未來,大多數企業都不會找到美國資本市場的替代品,因為美國市場仍然滿足全球 60% 的融資需求。如果目前的趨勢持續下去,我們將看到外國投資者的配置減少。我認為這是可以預料到的。

  • The vast, vast majority of capital, as I've suggested, came into our public indices, and we're now watching it leave our public indices. And I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. It is just we're moving we've lived in this Goldilocks period of time of hyper exceptionalism that we're just not used to things going in reverse, but they do. In terms of our own business, on the margin where we see certain pockets of limited partners where there's government pressure not to allocate to US until there is political resolution, I'm sure.

    正如我所說,絕大多數資本都進入了我們的公共指數,而我們現在正看著它們離開我們的公共指數。我認為這不一定是壞事。只是我們正在前進,我們生活在這個極端例外主義的金髮女孩時期,我們只是不習慣事情逆轉,但事情卻逆轉了。就我們自己的業務而言,我確信,我們看到某些有限合夥人迫於政府壓力,在政治解決之前不會分配給我們。

  • Do I expect it to have a major impact on our business? No, I do not. I think the reality is we are a source of diversification for almost every other portfolio, and it is always good to step back and think about relative size.

    我是否預期它會對我們的業務產生重大影響?不,我不。我認為現實情況是,我們幾乎是所有其他投資組合的多元化來源,退一步思考相對規模總是好的。

  • And the stat I like is just thinking about the size of the US debt market and then think about everyone says we're going to Germany. Well, the total market is $2.9 trillion. There's just no place to go right now. That does not mean that over time there will not be challengers to the US but it's not one of the things that's keeping me up at night.

    我喜歡的統計數據只是考慮美國債務市場的規模,然後想想每個人都說我們要去德國。嗯,整個市場規模是 2.9 兆美元。現在根本沒地方可去。這並不意味著隨著時間的推移,美國將不再面臨挑戰,但這並不是讓我夜不能寐的事情之一。

  • James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

    James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director

  • Yeah, I would just add that the bar is going to be higher. Marc commented about Germany. Our travel schedules would not indicate that there's a lack of global demand for our products. But I would say, like I was in Australia in the last month talking to all the super funds, the scale, that's a $4 trillion pot of assets going to $7 trillion. By definition, Australia is not large enough for them to be able to service all of their needs.

    是的,我只想補充一點,標準將會更高。馬克對德國進行了評論。我們的旅行計劃並未表明我們的產品在全球範圍內缺乏需求。但我想說,就像我上個月在澳洲與所有超級基金交談時所說的那樣,這個規模是 4 兆美元的資產池將達到 7 兆美元。從本質上講,澳洲不夠大,無法滿足他們的所有需求。

  • So we I think we feel comfortable that the hurdle for foreign capital or non- US capital to allocate to managers, we feel like we are in a select group. And the breadth of our strategies, our performance, the other attributes that we bring to a $10 billion, $20 billion, $30 billion manager, probably challenging, we’re going to get our fair share. We’re very comfortable.

    因此,我認為,我們對外國資本或非美國資本分配給管理人員的障礙感到放心,我們覺得自己屬於一個精選群體。我們的策略廣度、我們的績效以及我們為 100 億美元、200 億美元、300 億美元資產管理者帶來的其他屬性可能具有挑戰性,但我們將獲得公平的份額。我們感覺非常舒服。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benjamin Budish from Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的班傑明‧布迪什 (Benjamin Budish)。

  • Benjamin Budish - Analyst

    Benjamin Budish - Analyst

  • Hi good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Marc, in your prepared remarks, you talked a lot about liquidity in public markets. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about liquidity in private markets. It's something the media has kind of reported that you are poking around in, providing more liquidity to the paper that you're originating.

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。馬克,在你準備好的發言中,你談了很多關於公開市場的流動性問題。我想知道您是否可以談論私人市場的流動性。據媒體報道,您正在探索這一領域,為您創辦的報紙提供更多的流動性。

  • It is clearly part of what is required for your partnership with State Street for the ETF. So just curious if you could talk a little bit about your activities in terms of providing liquidity for private credit. How much capital this sort of requires and what your ambitions are there? Thank you.

    這顯然是您與道富銀行合作開發 ETF 所需的一部分。我很好奇,您是否可以談談您在為私人信貸提供流動性方面的活動。這需要多少資金以及您的目標是什麼?謝謝。

  • Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. First, look the reality is we made significant changes in the plumbing of our financial system in following 2008. In the equity market, we had a number of firms step forward, Citadel among them, Jane Street, who provide liquidity in the equity markets, some of the largest providers of liquidity. I've now been through hundreds of client meetings, and I ask them who does this in fixed income. And it is met with complete silence. And that is the answer. No one stepped forward to do this in fixed income.

    當然。首先,現實情況是我們在 2008 年後對金融體系的管道進行了重大改革。在股票市場,我們有許多公司挺身而出,其中包括 Citadel 和 Jane Street,它們為股票市場提供流動性,是最大的流動性提供者之一。我現在已經參加了數百次客戶會議,我問他們在固定收益領域誰會這樣做。而它所遭遇的卻是一片寂靜。這就是答案。在固定收益領域,沒有人敢這麼做。

  • By some estimates, fixed income trading capital in the world today is 10% of what it was in 2008, and the market is 3 times its size. The math is easy. We have a 1/30 of liquidity. I expect that in every risk off moment, we are going to see significant movements in trading prices and fixed income because there just is no market. We are discovering that public is both liquid and illiquid, and private is liquid and illiquid, just to differing degrees.

    據估計,目前全球固定收益交易資本是2008年的10%,而市場規模是當時的3倍。數學很簡單。我們有1/30的流動性。我預計,在每個風險規避的時刻,我們都會看到交易價格和固定收益的大幅波動,因為根本沒有市場。我們發現,公部門既有流動性,又有流動性;私部門既有流動性,又有流動性,只是程度不同。

  • The second thing I would ask you to think about, and then I'll get to your question, more than 20 years ago, some crazy banker stood up in a meeting and said, loans are going to trade. And all of us looked at him and said, "How could loans trade?" every loan is bespoke, there's no information, took 30 days to settle a loan. And yet and they are not even securities. And yet here we are more than 20 years later and we have loan ETFs and loan mutual funds, and we all think loans trade.

    我想請你思考的第二件事,然後我再回答你的問題,20 多年前,一些瘋狂的銀行家在一次會議上站起來說,貸款要進行交易。我們所有人都看著他,問道:“貸款怎麼交易?”每筆貸款都是客製化的,沒有任何訊息,需要 30 天才能結清貸款。但它們甚至不是證券。然而 20 多年後的今天,我們有了貸款 ETF 和貸款共同基金,我們都認為貸款是可以交易的。

  • Well, Jimmy Lee was right, loans trade. And JPMorgan made a market in loans and was earning widespread. Others on the Street saw JPMorgan are earning wide spread and decided that that was unfair and they stepped in.

    嗯,Jimmy Lee 是對的,貸款交易。摩根大通在貸款市場上建立了自己的市場,並獲得了豐厚的利潤。華爾街的其他人看到摩根大通的獲利差距很大,認為這不公平,於是他們介入。

  • And lo and behold, we have a market that is comprised of dealers. We're kind of doing the same thing initially in investment grade private credit. We came out, and I've said to you, I think 18 months from now, we will not know the difference between public and private credit in the investment-grade market. It will not be the issuers. It will not be the size. It will not be the rating. It will not be the provision of financial information, nor will it be the ability to buy and sell.

    你瞧,我們有一個由經銷商組成的市場。我們最初在投資等級私人信貸領域也做同樣的事情。我們出來了,我已經告訴過你們,我認為從現在起 18 個月後,我們將不知道投資等級市場中公共信貸和私人信貸之間的差異。它不會是發行人。尺寸不會一樣。這不會是評級。它不會提供財務信息,也不會提供買賣的能力。

  • And so in the context of the launch of the ETF, we've stepped forward and we are making a market in private credit. And something tells me that, given the competitive dynamic, that a number of firms will not like that we will earn wide spread, and they will step in and make a market in private credit as well, and it is already happening.

    因此,在推出 ETF 的背景下,我們已經邁出了一步,正在打造私人信貸市場。有跡象表明,考慮到競爭態勢,許多公司不會喜歡我們賺取巨額利潤,因此它們會介入並開拓私人信貸市場,而這種情況已經發生了。

  • That's kind of where we are. And I just see the more barriers we remove from the notion of private, the greater market acceptance we're going to have, the greater regulatory acceptance we are going to have. And it's not that I worry about the elimination of the so-called illiquidity premium. I just don't think it exists. I think that premium is derived from originating a good asset and then structuring and then controlling it.

    這就是我們現在的處境。我認為,我們在私有化概念上消除的障礙越多,市場接受度就越高,監管接受度就越高。我並不是擔心所謂的流動性溢價的消除。我只是不認為它存在。我認為溢價來自於創造優質資產,然後對其進行構建和控制。

  • I come back to origination. I don't worry at all about having more transparency. I don't worry about daily NAV. I don't worry about any of it. We fundamentally exist for a real reason. The banking system everywhere in the world funds itself short and is really good and really strong at a group of activities, generally not long dated.

    我回到了起源。我根本不擔心透明度的問題。我並不擔心每日資產淨值。我一點也不擔心。從根本上來說,我們的存在是有真實原因的。世界各地的銀行系統都為自己提供短期資金,並且在一系列活動中表現非常出色和強大,通常期限不長。

  • The public bond markets around the world generally are also good at another group of activities, generally simple and standard. Anything that is long-dated and complex, particularly highly-rated currently, in Europe has no home, read the Draghi report. And in the US the home is with people like us. I like our chances because, everywhere in the world, we are building infrastructure, we're building next-generation data and power.

    全球各地的公共債券市場一般也擅長另一組活動,一般比較簡單、規範。任何長期而複雜的東西,特別是目前評級較高的東西,在歐洲都沒有立足之地,請閱讀德拉吉的報告。在美國,家就是和我們這樣的人在一起。我喜歡我們的機會,因為在世界各地,我們都在建立基礎設施,建立下一代數據和電力。

  • We're doing additions to our energy supply. We are redoing our manufacturing base. We're ramping up defense production Almost every one of these activities is long-dated, complex and most are highly-rated.

    我們正在增加能源供應。我們正在重建我們的製造基地。我們正在加強國防生產力度,幾乎每項活動都是長期的、複雜的,而且大多數都受到高度評價。

  • So for us the bet we've made is that trading, liquidity, transparency, will increase the acceptance and the use cases for private and that therefore, all the value is going to come from those who can originate, not from those who can obfuscate. I like our chances here and I think the market is going to develop very similar to what we saw happening in the loan market.

    因此,對我們來說,我們所下的賭注是交易、流動性、透明度將增加私人的接受度和使用案例,因此,所有的價值都將來自那些能夠發起的人,而不是那些能夠混淆的人。我喜歡我們在這裡的機會,我認為市場的發展將與我們在貸款市場看到的情況非常相似。

  • And I think it is early days. I can't point to you where it is going. But the experiments are kind of easy. And take even in its most extreme, a very successful ETF $15 billion, $20 billion, $30 billion, one-third private, if everyone wanted their money in a month, that's like a week's work here.

    我認為現在還為時過早。我無法告訴你它要去哪裡。但實驗相當簡單。即使是最極端的情況,一個非常成功的 ETF 規模為 150 億美元、200 億美元、300 億美元,其中三分之一是私有的,如果每個人都想在一個月內拿到自己的錢,那就相當於一周的工作量。

  • It is just not all that big for the payoff of acceptance and transparency in this marketplace. Will it go beyond investment-grade private? I don't know. Because already there is not all that much difference between private credit and the level lending market and broadly syndicated.

    對於這個市場而言,接受度和透明度的回報並沒有那麼大。它會超越投資等級私人嗎?我不知道。因為私人信貸與水平借貸市場和廣泛銀團貸款之間已經沒有太大區別了。

  • The difference I sometimes joke is whether it's held by one person or by a group of people. The documentation is often the same, the credit quality is often the same. What you get in the private credit market, you get to have a one-on-one negotiation with the end-buyer who can give you certainty and flexibility and give you something you can't buy in a broadly syndicated market in process.

    我有時會開玩笑說,差別在於它是由一個人持有還是由一群人持有。文件通常相同,信用品質通常相同。您在私人信貸市場中獲得的是,您可以與最終買家進行一對一的談判,他們可以為您提供確定性和靈活性,並為您提供在廣泛的聯合市場中無法買到的東西。

  • Not clear to me which is better or which is worse from a credit quality point of view, but from a tradability point of view, to the extent broadly syndicated loans trade, I see no reason why private credit loans could not trade should the holder of those loans desire to trade them. But let's not get there. Let's focus on IG for the time being, and that's what we're focused on.

    從信貸品質的角度來看,我不清楚哪個更好或哪個更差,但從可交易性的角度來看,就廣泛的銀團貸款交易而言,如果這些貸款的持有人希望交易私人信貸貸款,我認為沒有理由不能進行交易。但我們不要到達那裡。我們暫時把注意力集中在IG上,這也是我們關注的重點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We're showing time for one final question today. The final question will be coming from John Barnidge of Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

    謝謝。今天我們討論最後一個問題。最後一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。請繼續。

  • John Barnidge - Analyst

    John Barnidge - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. I know in some of your prior answers, you said it's not about how many partnerships and asset manager or financial sponsor can start, but how many assets they originate that offer risk reward, and you have those origination capabilities.

    早安.感謝您提供的機會。我知道在您之前的一些回答中,您說過,重要的不是有多少合作夥伴關係、資產經理或金融贊助商可以啟動,而是他們發起了多少可以提供風險回報的資產,並且您具備這些發起能力。

  • How far off do you think the alternative space is from something that happened in the 401(k) space, where the biggest providers garnered all the assets and then it became a consolidation opportunity for those at the top? Thank you.

    您認為替代領域與 401(k)領域發生的事情有多大差異?在 401(k)領域,最大的提供者獲得了所有資產,然後它成為那些頂級提供者的整合機會?謝謝。

  • Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, I like the chances of the larger firms in this marketplace. The reality is however one may feel about this, the individual opportunity is an opportunity that is available to the established firms who are capable of managing and manning the resources necessary to serve large distribution channels.

    瞧,我喜歡這個市場上大公司的機會。事實是,無論人們對此有何看法,個人機會都是那些有能力管理和配備服務大型分銷管道所需資源的成熟公司所擁有的機會。

  • I think the same is going to be true in the traditional asset management area. The same is true in the retirement services area. The scale of need just can't be met by the sole proprietorship PE firm. That doesn't mean we get everything because I don't think that's the case.

    我認為傳統資產管理領域也會出現同樣的情況。退休服務領域也是如此。獨資PE公司根本無法滿足這種規模的需求。這並不意味著我們得到了一切,因為我不認為事實如此。

  • I think there are a number of firms in our industry who could garner the largest share of assets should they keep their origination quality high and fortunate to be one of them. I'm thankful every day that we are.

    我認為,我們行業中有許多公司如果能保持較高的發起品質並有幸成為其中之一,就能獲得最大份額的資產。我每天都對我們這樣的人心懷感激。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Gunn for any additional or closing comments.

    謝謝。現在,我想把發言權交還給岡恩先生,請他發表任何補充或結束評論。

  • Noah Gunn Gunn - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Noah Gunn Gunn - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. Well we really appreciate everyone's time this morning. If you have any questions or follow-ups on what we discussed, please feel free to reach out, and we will speak to you all next quarter. Thank you.

    偉大的。我們非常感謝大家今天早上抽出的時間。如果您對我們討論的內容有任何疑問或想了解後續情況,請隨時聯絡我們,我們將在下個季度與您聯繫。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time. And enjoy the rest of your day.

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們的參與。今天的活動到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路或退出網路直播。祝您今天餘下的時光愉快。