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Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Apollo Global Management's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This conference call is being recorded.
早安,歡迎參加阿波羅全球管理公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)本次電話會議正在錄音。
This call may include forward-looking statements and projections which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to Apollo's most recent SEC filings for risk factors related to these statements.
本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述和預測,這些陳述和預測並不保證未來的事件或績效。有關與這些聲明相關的風險因素,請參閱 Apollo 最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。
Apollo will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business. These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in Apollo's earnings presentation, which is available on the company's website.
阿波羅將在本次電話會議上討論一些非GAAP指標,管理階層認為這些指標與評估公司的財務表現有關。這些非GAAP指標與GAAP數據在Apollo的收益報告中進行了核對,該報告可在公司網站上查閱。
Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Apollo Fund. I will now like to turn the call over to Noah Gunn, Head of Investor Relations.
另請注意,本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買任何阿波羅基金權益的要約邀請。現在我將把電話交給投資者關係主管諾亞·岡恩。
Noah Gunn - Managing Director, Global Head of Investor Relations
Noah Gunn - Managing Director, Global Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, operator, and welcome again, everyone, to our call. Joining me to discuss our results and the momentum we're seeing across the business are Marc Rowan, CEO; Jim Zelter, President; and Martin Kelly, CFO.
謝謝接線員,也歡迎各位再次接入我們的通話。與我一起討論我們的業績以及我們在整個業務中看到的良好勢頭的是首席執行官馬克·羅文、總裁吉姆·澤爾特和首席財務官馬丁·凱利。
Earlier this morning, we published our earnings release and financial supplement on the investor relations portion of our website. And our apologies for the later earnings date this quarter. This was principally due to our partner summit, which was a fantastic event that we held in Tokyo last week.
今天早些時候,我們在網站的投資者關係部分發布了收益報告和財務補充資料。對於本季財報發布日期延後,我們深表歉意。這主要歸功於我們上週在東京舉辦的合作夥伴高峰會,這是一場非常棒的活動。
As you can see, our results reflect the broad-based strength across the business and our team's exceptional execution throughout the year. For the full year, we generated record combined fee-related earnings and spread-related earnings of $5.9 billion which drove adjusted net income of $5.2 billion up 14% year-over-year, or $8.38 per share.
如您所見,我們的業績反映了公司整體的實力以及團隊全年的出色執行力。全年來看,我們創造了與費用相關的收入和與價差相關的收入合計達到創紀錄的 59 億美元,推動調整後淨收入達到 52 億美元,同比增長 14%,即每股 8.38 美元。
And so given the strength of these results, I've asked the guys to keep our remarks on the tighter side this quarter, but of course we make no promises, and with that, I'll hand it over to Marc.
鑑於這些結果的強勁勢頭,我已經要求各位在本季度盡量減少發言,但我們當然不會做出任何承諾,接下來,我將把發言權交給馬克。
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Noah. I will do my best. I have doubts about Jim and Martin. Again, an exceptional quarter capping off an exceptional year. FRE for the year, $2.5 billion, up 23% year-over-year. SRE, $3.4 billion plus -- normalized plus 9% year-over-year.
謝謝你,諾亞。我會盡我所能。我對吉姆和馬丁有所懷疑。又一個出色的季度,為出色的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。全年FRE為25億美元,年增23%。SRE,超過 34 億美元——以正常值計算,年增 9%。
Business is firing on all cylinders. Origination, record volume across the $300 billion mark. More importantly, robust, consistent spread, 350 basis points over treasuries, with an average rating of BBB. Capital formation, record inflows, $228 billion, both Athene and Asset Management; ACS, third straight record year.
業務蒸蒸日上。貸款發放量創歷史新高,突破 3,000 億美元大關。更重要的是,利差穩健、穩定,比國債高出 350 個基點,平均評級為 BBB。資本形成,流入量創歷史新高,達 2,280 億美元,Athene 和 Asset Management 均創下紀錄;ACS 連續第三年創下歷史新高。
Most important to us, this is all done with strong investment performance without reaching. To give you a sense of just how strong, all buckets of credit up 8% to 12%, hybrid value up 16% for the year. Fund 10, our most recent vintage Fund 23, 22% net IRR, strong DPI versus industry DPI that rounds closer to zero.
對我們來說最重要的是,這一切都是在沒有過度投資的情況下實現的,並且取得了良好的投資績效。為了讓您了解其強勁程度,所有信貸類別的利率均上漲了 8% 至 12%,混合型信貸的利率全年上漲了 16%。基金 10,我們最新的基金 23,淨內部報酬率為 22%,DPI 強勁,而產業 DPI 接近零。
Looking forward, all of the drivers that powered us in '25 are going to power us in '26. In fact, I would say that they're more mature. And if you think about what's happening in our business, we are going from serving one market, institutional alts portfolios, to serving six markets. We now serve individuals, we serve insurance. We serve the debt and equity buckets of our institutional clients.
展望未來,所有在 2025 年為我們帶來動力的車手,都將在 2026 年繼續為我們帶來動力。事實上,我認為他們更成熟。想想我們公司正在發生的事情,我們正在從服務一個市場(機構另類投資組合)擴展到服務六個市場。我們現在服務個人,也服務保險公司。我們為機構客戶提供債務和股權融資服務。
We serve traditional asset managers. And we hope to serve more robustly the 401(k) market. Each of these markets has the ability to be roughly the same size as our original market, which power the entire industry.
我們為傳統資產管理公司提供服務。我們希望能夠更有效地服務 401(k) 市場。這些市場中的每一個都有可能達到與我們最初的市場大致相同的規模,而正是這些市場支撐著整個產業。
Understanding that, these markets require different products, different product structures, different access points, different investments in technology to serve. And you will see these markets mature more and more over time. And so as we look forward, we think the trends that are showing up in '25 will show up even more in '26 and again in '27.
要了解這一點,這些市場需要不同的產品、不同的產品結構、不同的接入點以及不同的技術投資來服務。隨著時間的推移,你會看到這些市場越來越成熟。因此,展望未來,我們認為 2025 年出現的趨勢將在 2026 年和 2027 年更加明顯地出現。
To give you a brief sense of progress, in the individual market, more than $18 billion of inflows, now nine strategies in excess of $500 million of annual fundraising. Insurance more than $15 billion of third-party insurance with a very active pipeline.
為了讓您對進展有個大致了解,在個人市場,資金流入超過 180 億美元,目前有九種策略的年度募資額超過 5 億美元。第三方保險業務規模超過150億美元,且業務拓展非常活躍。
Increasing growth in our fixed income replacement business. And what we see is a number of the leading investors in the world moving to this notion of total portfolio approach.
我們的固定收益替代業務持續成長。我們看到,世界上許多領先的投資者正在轉向這種整體投資組合方法。
Total portfolio approach essentially opens up the debt and equity buckets of these institutions to private assets in competition for what has historically been a 100% market share for public assets. Traditional alt managers, you saw the announcement with Schroders this morning, which I expect to grow into a multi-billion-dollar partnership, and PRIV, our ETF with State Street, now approaches $700 million in size. And more importantly, it's among the top performers of investment-grade ETFs everywhere.
整體投資組合方法本質上是將這些機構的債務和股權投資向私人資產開放,以爭奪歷史上一直由公共資產佔據的 100% 市場份額。傳統另類投資經理們,你們今天早上看到了我們與施羅德集團的合作公告,我預計這將發展成為一項數十億美元的合作;此外,我們與道富銀行合作的 ETF PRIV 目前的規模已接近 7 億美元。更重要的是,它在全球投資等級 ETF 中表現名列前茅。
Again, proving that private can be both liquid and illiquid. In this case, private investment grade being fully liquid.
再次證明,私有資產既可以是流動性強的,也可以是不流動的。在這種情況下,私募投資等級資產具有完全流動性。
We're also seeing progress in our DC and 401(k), products in motion with State Street with Empower, with One Digital and with one very large RIA. Everything we're talking about ultimately comes down to the promise of private markets, which is excess return per unit of risk. And our ability to generate assets or originate assets with excess spread at scale is becoming more and more important. And our historical investment in origination has given us a bit of a competitive moat that others are trying to catch up to.
我們還看到我們的 DC 和 401(k) 產品取得了進展,與 State Street 的 Empower、One Digital 以及非常大的 RIA 合作正在推進中。我們討論的一切最終都歸結於私人市場的承諾,即單位風險的超額回報。我們大規模創造或發行具有超額利差的資產的能力變得越來越重要。我們過去在業務拓展方面的投入,為我們創造了一定的競爭優勢,其他公司正在努力追趕。
Outlook in '26 for Asset Management, which will not be a flagship fund year, continues to be 20%-plus FRE growth. In Retirement Services, the demand for retirement income has never been higher. The global retirement crisis is coming much more into view. We as a world and we as societies are starting to deal with the consequences of this. You saw more than $80 billion of inflows in '25, you should expect approximately $85 billion of inflows in '26.
2026 年資產管理前景展望(雖然這一年並非旗艦基金年),預計 FRE 成長率將超過 20%。在退休服務領域,對退休收入的需求從未如此高。全球退休危機日益凸顯。我們這個世界,我們各個社會,都開始面對這一切所帶來的後果。2025 年流入資金超過 800 億美元,預計 2026 年流入資金約 850 億美元。
And more than $5 billion of this will be from markets that we were not in 18 months ago and that I believe will turn out to be a very large share of our business.
其中超過 50 億美元將來自我們 18 個月前尚未涉足的市場,我相信這些市場最終將占我們業務的很大一部分。
Our November teach-in set a very clear path. The SRE growth remains durable. We expect 10% SRE growth in '26. And we reaffirm the 10% growth on average through '29 assuming we do what we're supposed to do in the alternatives.
我們11月份的研討會制定了非常明確的方向。SRE的成長動能依然強勁。我們預計 2026 年 SRE 將成長 10%。我們重申,假設我們按照預期在其他方案中採取的措施,到 2029 年平均成長率將達到 10%。
We step back and we think about macro, all of this comes down to a focus on risk and reward. Each of us has our own way of expressing what it is we're doing. The way I like to express it is to talk about markets that essentially exists on a playing field. For most of my career, 95% of the outcomes have been on that field and very little has been outside that. In fact, it was such a small percentage that we never really thought about it that much and didn't really hedge.
我們退後一步,從宏觀角度思考,這一切最終都歸結為對風險和回報的關注。我們每個人都有自己表達所做事情的方式。我喜歡用「市場本質上存在於一個競爭環境中」來表達這一點。在我職業生涯的大部分時間裡,95% 的成果都與這個領域有關,很少有成果超越這個領域。事實上,這個比例非常小,所以我們從來沒有真正考慮過它,也沒有真正採取對沖措施。
And sometimes, we like what was in front of us in terms of valuation, in terms of liquidity, in terms of economic outlook, and sometimes not, but we knew how to navigate those cycles.
有時,我們對眼前的估值、流動性、經濟前景感到滿意;有時則不然,但我們知道如何應對這些週期。
What we're watching now is just an increased percentage or increased probability of outcomes outside of established lanes or an established playing field. And one needs to take those factors into account as you invest, as you think about risk and award.
我們現在看到的只是在既定規則或既定規則之外出現的結果的百分比或機率的增加。在投資時,需要考慮這些因素,權衡風險和回報。
And what's becoming clear in our industry is the notion of having a principal's mindset versus an agent's mindset. A principal's mindset approaches every asset and every asset class as if they're going to own it for the long term because they do. An agent's mindset responds to the hot dot in the marketplace and ask more fundamentally, is can the asset be sold, is the asset popular. I believe a principal mindset will serve us very well.
我們產業內越來越明顯的一點是,要建立委託人的思考方式,而不是代理人的思考方式。一位管理者的心態是,他對待每一項資產和每一類資產都如同長期持有一般,因為他的確打算長期持有。經紀人的心態會隨著市場上的熱點而變化,並更根本地思考:這筆資產能賣出去嗎?這筆資產受歡迎嗎?我相信秉持原則的思維方式對我們大有裨益。
Jim will give you some notion of software, and I will steal only a little bit of his thunder. But in our PE business, our software exposure rounds to zero. In our Athene balance sheet, our software exposure rounds closer to zero than to one. In ADS, half the exposure of our large peers.
吉姆會為你講解一些軟體方面的內容,而我只能稍微搶下他的風頭。但在我們的私募股權業務中,我們的軟體敞口約為零。在我們的 Athene 資產負債表中,我們的軟體風險敞口接近零而不是一。在 ADS 領域,我們的曝光量只有大型同行的一半。
Software is an amazing business. The market's overreaction to software is extreme. But clearly, factors have changed, and we have good software companies and bad software companies and good valuations and bad valuations. If you were aggressive at a point in time when valuations were very high and not a lot of diligence was being done and people were expecting growth forever, you're playing defense now. I assure you, we are on offense, and software will be a very attractive sector, albeit not at the valuation levels and with the kind of underwriting that has been done previously.
軟體產業真是太棒了。市場對軟體的過度反應已經到了極端的地步。但很顯然,各種因素都發生了變化,我們有了優秀的軟體公司,也有了糟糕的軟體公司,有的估值合理,有的估值不合理。如果你在估值很高、盡職調查不多、人們期望永遠成長的時候採取激進策略,那麼現在你就處於守勢了。我向你們保證,我們正在積極進攻,軟體產業將是一個非常有吸引力的行業,儘管估值水平和承銷力度可能不如以前。
To give you a sense of how this principal mindset plays out, take our largest private markets direct lending vehicle, ADS, now more than $25 billion. For the quarter and for the year, approximately 8% return, lowest leverage, private capital structure, large company, no pick I assure you ADS is on offense.
為了讓您了解這種主要思維方式是如何體現的,以我們最大的私人市場直接貸款工具 ADS 為例,規模現已超過 250 億美元。本季和全年回報率約為 8%,槓桿率最低,私募資本結構,公司規模大,無需多言,我向你保證,ADS 正在積極進攻。
In hybrid, our largest vehicle there is AAA, which now exceeds some $25 billion. AAA, 12% inception-to-date return, very low volatility, 43 of 44 positive quarters, including 23 consecutive positive quarters. This is the perfect strategy for institutions who are thinking about total portfolio approach in that, on a risk-reward basis, it has outperformed almost everything else in their book.
在混合型企業中,我們最大的企業是AAA,其市值目前已超過250億美元。 AAA,自成立以來佔12%回報豐厚,波動性極低,44 個季度中有 43 個季度實現正收益,其中包括連續 23 個季度實現正收益。對於考慮採用整體投資組合方法的機構而言,這是一個完美的策略,因為從風險回報的角度來看,它的表現幾乎優於他們投資組合中的所有其他策略。
In our equity business, with $39 gross and 24% net return for our PE flagship funds over the last 3.5 decades just can't be matched.
在我們的股權投資業務中,過去 35 年裡,我們的私募股權旗艦基金的總回報率為 39 美元,淨回報率為 24%,這樣的業績是無與倫比的。
At Athene, while others have reached for spread, we have been positioned defensively. We've built $24 billion position of cash treasuries and agencies. While this is a short-term drag, we are always willing to sacrifice short-term profitability for doing the right thing and gives us significant firepower to redeploy.
在 Athene,當其他人都在尋求擴張時,我們採取了防禦姿態。我們已建立了價值 240 億美元的現金儲備和機構存款。雖然這會造成短期拖累,但我們始終願意為了做正確的事而犧牲短期獲利能力,這給了我們強大的重新部署能力。
Athene maintains plenty of flexibility, and some of the levers that we've seen even industry leaders undertake, whether it's the move to Cayman or asset risk taking, we have simply not had to do, nor will we do. When you come to work each day with a principal's mindset, you just approach business very differently. Athene is a very tough competitor with numerous advantages.
Athene 保持著很大的靈活性,我們看到一些行業領導者採取的措施,無論是遷往開曼群島還是承擔資產風險,我們根本沒有必要做,也不會做。當你每天都以校長的心態來工作時,你處理業務的方式就會完全不同。雅典娜是個非常強大的競爭對手,擁有許多優勢。
Let me just wrap up by saying, last week we had a chance to spend time in Tokyo with our 200 partners, an unbelievable cultural moment. The theme of playing to win, tremendous excitement, not just about what's happening, but what is in the kitchen that we're working on, which we expect to roll out over the next six months. Real focus on what makes Apollo, Apollo, and responding to the cultural moment and not simply growing our business for the sake of growing our business, but growing our business at scale, with quality and with intentionality.
最後我想說的是,上週我們有機會與 200 位合作夥伴在東京共度時光,這是一次令人難以置信的文化體驗。比賽的主題是爭取勝利,這令人無比興奮,不僅是對正在發生的事情,還有我們在廚房裡正在努力的事情,我們預計將在未來六個月內推出。真正專注於是什麼造就了 Apollo 的獨特之處,並順應文化潮流,而不是為了發展業務而發展業務,而是以規模化、高品質和有目的性的方式發展業務。
Jim, over to you.
吉姆,該你了。
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
Thanks, Marc. Over the past several years, we've talked about Apollo's individual capabilities our credit platform, our equity franchise and balance sheet, each strong on its own. But I want to take focus for a moment today on how those pieces work together in an integrated system, the connection between origination and capital formation and why that matters more than ever to date.
謝謝你,馬克。過去幾年,我們分別談到了阿波羅的各項能力——信貸平台、股權融資和資產負債表,每一項本身都很強大。但今天我想花點時間重點談談這些部分如何在一個綜合系統中協同運作,以及資金來源和資本形成之間的聯繫,以及為什麼這在今天比以往任何時候都更加重要。
At scale, investing does not get simpler. It gets more complex. What differentiates Apollo is that we built a system designed to absorb that complexity and convert it into consistent, high-quality outcomes for our clients. That is our long-term moat. Origination today is no longer a standalone function.
規模化投資並不會變得更簡單。情況變得更加複雜。Apollo 的獨特之處在於,我們建立了一個系統,旨在吸收這種複雜性,並將其轉化為為客戶帶來持續、高品質的成果。這就是我們的長期護城河。如今,貸款發放不再是一個獨立的功能。
It's bespoke investing. The flywheel that powers our business is now origination, product and investing in teams working in sync across the firm. And capital formation is not something that happens at the end of the process; in many ways, it shapes what we originate upstream.
這是量身訂製的投資方案。現在驅動我們業務發展的飛輪是整個公司各部門的團隊協同合作,負責業務拓展、產品開發和投資。資本形成並非發生在過程的最後階段;在許多方面,它塑造了我們上游的創造。
Understanding this connection between origination and capital formation allows us to deliver the right cost of capital to the right opportunity quickly and at scale, while maintaining discipline and alignment. At the end of the day, our job is to make money for our clients. And that's precisely what we did in 2025 with our scaled, connected platform generating over $60 billion of value to our investors.
了解資金來源和資本形成之間的這種聯繫,使我們能夠快速、大規模地將合適的資金成本提供給合適的投資機會,同時保持紀律和一致性。歸根究底,我們的工作就是為客戶賺錢。而這正是我們在 2025 年透過規模化、互聯互通的平台為投資者創造超過 600 億美元價值所做到的。
We've been running our business with the same patient, purchase price matters discipline that has driven our investing success through various cycles over the last 35-plus years. That discipline is particularly evident in areas like software where we estimate it represented approximately 40% of all sponsor-backed private credit and 30% of all PE deployment for more than a decade.
在過去的 35 年多時間裡,我們一直秉持著耐心、注重購買價格的原則來經營業務,而正是這種原則推動我們在各種週期中取得了投資成功。這種紀律在軟體等領域尤其明顯,據我們估計,在過去十多年裡,軟體領域約佔所有贊助商支持的私募信貸的 40%,佔所有私募股權投資的 30%。
As Marc mentioned, our positioning is amongst the lowest in the industry and it's really a situation of selectivity versus exposure. Today it represents less than 2% of our total AUM. In private equity, zero exposure to grow software.
正如馬克所提到的,我們的定位在業界屬於最低水平,這實際上是選擇性與曝光度之間的一種博弈。如今,它僅占我們總資產管理規模的不到 2%。在私募股權領域,對成長型軟體的投資為零。
On Athene's balance sheet, we have de minimis exposure of 0.5%, which is virtually all IG-rated, with hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Oracle. And I'd further add that software investments within our credit business, excluding Athene, represent less than 4% of AUM. And within ADS's relative proportion is amongst the lowest, as Marc mentioned, amongst our peers.
在 Athene 的資產負債表上,我們僅有 0.5% 的極小敞口,而且幾乎全部是 IG 評級的資產,例如微軟和甲骨文等超大規模企業。此外,我還想補充一點,除 Athene 外,我們信貸業務中的軟體投資佔資產管理規模的比例不到 4%。正如馬克所提到的,ADS 的相對比例在同行中屬於最低之列。
We have managed ADS, our flagship credit vehicle, in a prudent manner with lower than market leverage, low pick and all first lien exposure.
我們以審慎的方式管理我們的旗艦信貸工具 ADS,槓桿率低於市場水平,選擇權較低,並且全部為第一順位抵押權。
In summary, we see parallels between software and prior cycles, where an influx of capital fuels over-allocation, dispersion follows and patience is rewarded. We believe we're well positioned for this moment.
總而言之,我們看到軟體產業與先前的周期有相似之處,資本湧入導致過度配置,隨之而來的是分散化,而耐心會得到回報。我們相信我們已經為這一刻做好了充分準備。
Turning to origination. In 2025, the strength and breadth of our capabilities were on full display. As Marc noted, we originated over $305 billion of assets, up nearly 40% for the prior year. And incredibly, that was really the first year of our five-year plan that we presented in Investor Day just 18 months ago.
轉向起源。2025年,我們的實力和能力廣度將會充分展現。正如馬克所指出的,我們發放的資產超過 3,050 億美元,比前一年增長了近 40%。令人難以置信的是,這實際上是我們18個月前在投資者日上提出的五年計劃的第一年。
Across that activity, $282 billion was debt comprised of approximately 80% IG, with an average rating of A and 20% sub-investment-grade rating with the rating of B. Within core credit, volumes were led by large cap direct lending, commercial mortgage lending, residential mortgage lending and fund finance, a large growth area.
在這些活動中,2,820億美元的債務約佔80%的投資等級債務,平均評級為A級;20%的債務評級低於投資等級,評級為B級。在核心信貸領域,大市值直接貸款、商業抵押貸款、房屋抵押貸款和基金融資(一個成長迅速的領域)引領了交易量。
Across our platforms where volumes increased over 30%, the activity was led by our three, Atlas, MidCap and Redding Ridge. The scaling that we've seen has been facilitated by a broadening of our offering, expanding our capabilities and redefining our opportunity set.
在我們所有交易量成長超過 30% 的平台中,Atlas、MidCap 和 Redding Ridge 這三個平台引領了這一成長。我們所看到的規模化發展得益於我們擴大了產品和服務範圍,增強了自身能力,並重新定義了我們的機會。
Our success within the sponsor ecosystem is a clear example. We identified sponsors as an opportunity several years ago and, in 2022, it generated $20 billion in volume across mid-cap and large-cap direct lending. Through the broadening and deepening of our sponsored toolbox, which now allows us to offer comprehensive full-service solutions, origination volumes in this area totaled nearly $80 billion in 2025, quadrupling in four years.
我們在贊助商生態系統中所取得的成功就是一個鮮明的例證。幾年前,我們發現贊助商是一個機會,到 2022 年,它在中型和大型直接貸款領域創造了 200 億美元的交易量。透過擴大和深化我們贊助的工具箱,我們現在能夠提供全面的全方位服務解決方案,到 2025 年,該領域的貸款發放量總計接近 800 億美元,四年內增長了四倍。
Numerous noted transactions could be put forth, but I'll mention three quickly. In December, we led a $3.5 billion capital solution to support Valor's $5.4 billion acquisition and lease of data center infrastructure to a subsidiary of xAI. This franchise transaction for the firm in the AI space underscores our role as a leading provider of flexible, asset-based capital for the next generation assets.
可以列出許多值得注意的交易,但我將快速提及其中三項。去年 12 月,我們牽頭提供了 35 億美元的資本解決方案,以支援 Valor 以 54 億美元收購和租賃資料中心基礎設施給 xAI 的子公司。此次人工智慧領域的特許經營交易凸顯了公司作為下一代資產靈活資產型資本領先提供者的地位。
In January, we led a $3 billion convertible preferred financing for QXO, a building products distributor led by Brad Jacobs, a proven allocator with a phenomenal track record. And we were tapped to bring together a blue-chip investor group to provide flexible capital to support the company's long-term strategy of growth.
1 月份,我們牽頭為 QXO 進行了 30 億美元的可轉換優先股融資。 QXO 是一家建築產品經銷商,由 Brad Jacobs 領導,他是一位經驗豐富的資產配置者,擁有卓越的業績記錄。我們受命召集一批藍籌投資者,為公司提供靈活的資金,以支持其長期成長策略。
And lastly, our hybrid and credit franchise delivered $1.2 billion in strategic financing for Russell Investments, providing long-term capital and enhanced balance sheet flexibility to support their continued expansion.
最後,我們的混合信貸業務為羅素投資公司提供了 12 億美元的策略性融資,提供了長期資本和增強的資產負債表彈性,以支持其持續擴張。
Doubling -- Double-clicking and providing context on the origination spreads for the year, our investment-grade origination, we generated excess spread of 290 basis points over treasuries or approximately 220 basis over rated corporates in the index. On our sub-IG origination, we generated excess spread of 490 basis points over treasuries or approximately 200 basis points over comparably rated high-yield rated corporates.
翻倍-雙擊並提供有關本年度發行利差的背景信息,我們的投資級發行,我們比國債產生了 290 個基點的超額利差,比指數中評級的公司債券產生了約 220 個基點的超額利差。在我們的次級投資等級債券發行中,我們獲得了比國債高出 490 個基點的超額利差,或比同等評級的高收益公司債高出約 200 個基點。
Again, and importantly, we observed stable spreads quarter-over-quarter over the course of the year, noteworthy in a market environment where public spreads remain near multi-decade highs. Generating excess spread at broad scale while maintaining quality is a clear testament to the breadth and depth of our solutions offered by our origination systems.
再次強調,重要的是,我們觀察到全年各季度之間的利差保持穩定,這在公共利差仍接近數十年高點的市場環境下尤其值得關注。在維持品質的同時,大規模地創造超額利差,這清楚地證明了我們的貸款發放系統所提供的解決方案的廣度和深度。
Simply put, 2025 was an outstanding year where we focused on scale, but also maintaining quality.
簡言之,2025 年是意義非凡的一年,我們注重規模擴張,同時也維持了品質。
Turning to capital formation. Our fourth quarter results punctuated a record year across the firm. We generated $42 billion of inflows in the quarter and $228 billion for the full year. Asset Management delivered $100 billion of organic inflows and $45 billion of inorganic inflows, while Athene added $83 billion. Across the firm, we generated record organic inflows during the year totaling $182 billion, approximately two-third of which were attributable to third parties, a focused growth over the last several years.
接下來討論資本形成。我們第四季的業績為公司創紀錄的一年畫上了圓滿的句點。本季我們創造了 420 億美元的資金流入,全年創造了 2,280 億美元的資金流入。資產管理業務實現了 1000 億美元的有機流入和 450 億美元的無機流入,而 Athene 則增加了 830 億美元。該公司全年實現了創紀錄的有機流入,總額達 1,820 億美元,其中約三分之二來自第三方,這是過去幾年集中成長的趨勢。
Similar to origination, the definition of success within Capital Formation has expanded with the addition of new capabilities and new sources of demand. The scaling that we have seen in capital formation has been driven by moving from a sole source of demand, as Marc mentioned, the alts buckets with institutions, to six pockets of demand, with new sources including fixed income replacement, wealth, third-party insurance, traditional asset managers and 401(k).
與資金籌集類似,隨著新能力和新需求來源的增加,資本形成領域的成功定義也隨之擴大。我們所看到的資本形成規模的擴大,是由需求來源的單一變化所驅動的,正如馬克所提到的,這種變化是從單一的需求來源(機構的另類投資)轉變為六個需求來源,新的需求來源包括固定收益替代、財富管理、第三方保險、傳統資產管理公司和 401(k) 計劃。
Of the $100 billion of organic inflows into Asset Management during the year, approximately 75% went to credit-oriented strategies and 25% to equity-oriented strategies, supported by strong demand across multiple client types and geographies. Our institutional business had a phenomenal year posting the strongest year of fundraising on record outside of a flagship year.
在當年流入資產管理產業的 1,000 億美元自然資金中,約 75% 流向了信貸導向策略,25% 流向了股票導向策略,這得益於多種客戶類型和地理的強勁需求。我們的機構業務在過去一年取得了非凡的成績,在非旗艦年份中創下了有史以來最強勁的籌款紀錄。
Within institutional, third-party insurance was a particular highlight with $15 billion of new mandates. And when combined with $16 billion of growth in our third-party side cars during the year, this brings our third-party insurance platform to more than $135 billion across 30 strategic and SMA mandates.
在機構保險領域,第三方保險特別突出,新增保單金額達 150 億美元。加上我們第三方附屬公司本年度 160 億美元的成長,這使得我們的第三方保險平台在 30 個策略和 SMA 委託項目中的規模超過 1,350 億美元。
We continue to see growing engagement from insurance who value our origination capabilities and the complete alignment that come with our balance sheet. This is translating into robust and expanding pipeline around the globe, but with particular focus in Europe and Asia.
我們持續看到保險公司對我們的業務拓展能力以及我們資產負債表帶來的全面契合度給予越來越高的評價。這意味著全球範圍內,尤其是歐洲和亞洲,將出現強勁且不斷擴大的研發管線。
Our Global Wealth business had an excellent year with fundraising totaling $18 billion, up nearly 50% year-over-year. As Marc mentioned, to illustrate the increased diversification of the activities, nine strategies raised more than $500 million and three raised more than $1 billion.
我們的全球財富管理業務在過去一年取得了優異的成績,募資總額達到 180 億美元,較去年同期成長近 50%。正如馬克所提到的,為了說明業務活動的日益多元化,九項策略籌集了超過 5 億美元的資金,三項策略籌集了超過 10 億美元的資金。
ABC filed last year's quarter -- record quarter with another $400 million in raise, and we believe sustained investor interest reflects the conference in our origination advantage in the asset-based finance as investors look to diversify away from corporate credit. Our global wealth offering is resonating and partners are increasingly engaging Apollo as a full-service solution provider rather than just for individual strategies.
ABC 提交了去年季度財報——創紀錄的季度,又籌集了 4 億美元資金,我們相信,投資者持續的興趣反映了會議對我們在資產融資領域發起優勢的認可,因為投資者正在尋求從企業信貸轉向其他投資領域。我們的全球財富管理服務引起了廣泛共鳴,合作夥伴們越來越傾向於將阿波羅視為全方位解決方案提供商,而不僅僅是針對個別策略。
At Athene, full year inflows were a record $83 billion, driven by robust retail inflows of $34 billion, record funding agreement issuance of $35 billion and strong reinsurance of $12 billion and a modest contribution from the pension group annuities as well as a variety of new channels.
在 Athene,全年資金流入創紀錄地達到 830 億美元,這主要得益於強勁的零售資金流入 340 億美元、創紀錄的融資協議發行 350 億美元、強勁的再保險收入 120 億美元,以及養老金集團年金的適度貢獻和各種新渠道。
The global retiree wave continues to build and Athene remains uniquely positioned to meet the growing demand for long-term security. We did not get here by accident. Years of hard work have established us as the industry leader with multiple competitive advantages, allowing us to serve retirees and increasing scale.
全球退休潮持續高漲,Athene 憑藉其獨特的優勢,仍能滿足日益增長的長期保障需求。我們走到今天這一步並非偶然。多年的努力使我們成為行業領導者,擁有多項競爭優勢,使我們能夠為退休人員提供服務並不斷擴大規模。
Overall, the road ahead for capital formation is full of opportunity, is global, and the momentum we're seeing gives us confidence we'll see meaningful, more organic inflows across asset management and Athene in every channel in 2026. With that, I'll turn it over to Martin.
整體而言,資本形成的未來道路充滿機遇,是全球性的,我們目前看到的勢頭讓我們有信心,到 2026 年,資產管理和 Athene 的各個管道都將出現更有意義的、更自然的資金流入。接下來,我將把麥克風交給馬丁。
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. So our fourth quarter results capped a very strong year of performance and demonstrate sustained execution against our long-term strategy. Particularly evident this year is the earnings flywheel benefit of origination, driving inflows to create management and performance fees, syndication volume to create capital solutions fees and spread assets to create spread-related earnings.
謝謝你,吉姆,大家早安。因此,我們第四季的業績為表現強勁的一年畫上了圓滿的句號,並證明了我們長期策略的持續執行。今年尤其明顯的是,貸款發放帶來的收益飛輪效應,它推動資金流入,從而產生管理費和業績費;推動銀團貸款規模,從而產生資本解決方案費;推動利差資產,從而產生與利差相關的收益。
In Asset Management, we generated increases in AUM and fee gen AUM of 25% year-over-year to $938 billion and $709 billion, respectively. This helps drive record fee-related earnings of $2.5 billion in 2025, up 23% year-over-year. I would note that this level of FRE growth was among the best in sector for 2025.
在資產管理方面,我們的資產管理規模和手續費收入資產管理規模分別年增 25%,達到 9,380 億美元和 7,090 億美元。這將有助於推動公司在 2025 年獲得創紀錄的 25 億美元費用相關收入,年增 23%。需要指出的是,這種 FRE 成長水準在 2025 年的產業預期中屬於最佳水準之一。
In the year, we delivered 22% growth in management fees with underlying strength driven by increasing contribution from third-party asset management inflows into both credit and equity strategies as well as strong capital deployment and robust growth at Athene.
今年,我們的管理費成長了 22%,這主要得益於第三方資產管理資金流入信貸和股票策略的貢獻不斷增加,以及 Athene 的強勁資本部署和穩健成長。
Capital Solutions fees of $226 million reached a new high in the fourth quarter and drove the full year results to exceed $800 million. The underlying activity driving capital solutions fees is increasingly diversified with more than 125 transactions in the fourth quarter and approximately 430 transactions during the full year, with full year transaction activity approximately 60% credit-driven. This is a strong validation of how our proprietary origination capabilities are continuing to broaden and deepen, resulting in greater fee generation opportunities for ACS.
第四季資本解決方案費用達 2.26 億美元,創歷史新高,推動全年業績超過 8 億美元。推動資本解決方案費用的基礎活動日益多元化,第四季度交易量超過 125 筆,全年交易量約為 430 筆,其中全年交易活動約 60% 由信貸驅動。這有力地證明了我們專有的貸款發起能力正在不斷擴展和深化,從而為 ACS 帶來更大的費用創收機會。
Fee-related performance fees grew by 28% year-over-year, reflecting continued scaling of diversified wealth products and perpetual capital vehicles, led by ADS and with additional contributions from Redding Ridge, MidCap and other platforms.
與費用相關的績效費年增 28%,反映出多元化財富產品和永續資本工具的持續擴張,其中 ADS 引領成長,Redding Ridge、MidCap 和其他平台也做出了貢獻。
In the fourth quarter, growth in fee-related expenses was driven by several factors, including the full quarter impact of Bridge, continued investment in our team, with key senior hires, including our new Head of Strategy in Asia, as well as infrastructure investment particularly on next-generation technology platforms, data and AI initiatives, and further, normal course fourth quarter seasonality and some nonrecurring noncomp costs.
第四季度,費用相關支出的成長受多種因素驅動,包括 Bridge 的整個季度影響、對團隊的持續投資(包括關鍵高級人才的招聘,例如我們新的亞洲戰略主管)、基礎設施投資(特別是對下一代技術平台、數據和人工智能計劃的投資),以及正常的第四季度季節性因素和一些非經常性非補償成本。
For the full year, our FRE margin was approximately 57%, stable year-over-year and consistent with our previously communicated target.
全年來看,我們的 FRE 利潤率約為 57%,與去年同期相比保持穩定,與我們先前公佈的目標一致。
In the first four months post-acquisition, Bridge contributed approximately $105 million of fee-related revenue and $60 million of fee-related expenses to our 2025 results. And quarterizing that contribution is a reasonable way to estimate the run rate contribution over the near term. Excluding the impact of Bridge, our full year FRE margin grew by about 50 basis points inclusive of the cost of significant investments in our platform.
在收購後的前四個月,Bridge 為我們 2025 年的業績貢獻了約 1.05 億美元的費用相關收入和 6,000 萬美元的費用相關支出。將此貢獻值四等分,是估算近期運行率貢獻值的合理方法。不計 Bridge 的影響,我們全年的 FRE 利潤率成長了約 50 個基點,其中包括對我們平台的重大投資成本。
Moving to Retirement Services, Athene's net invested assets grew by 18% year-over-year to $292 million. We generated $865 million of SRE for the quarter with an additional $28 million at our long-term 11% return expectation on the alternatives portfolio. The alts return for the quarter came in slightly higher than our pre-estimate due to favorable late quarter pricing adjustments.
轉至退休服務,Athene 的淨投資資產年增 18%,達到 2.92 億美元。本季我們創造了 8.65 億美元的 SRE,另類投資組合以我們長期 11% 的預期回報率計算,額外創造了 2,800 萬美元。由於季度末價格調整有利,本季山寨幣收益率略高於我們先前的預期。
The blended net spread ex-notables was 120 basis points in the fourth quarter, versus 121 basis points in the prior quarter, primarily reflecting asset prepayments and mostly offset by new business growth and higher return on the alt portfolio. When considering our 11% return expectation on the alternatives portfolio, the net spread in the fourth quarter would have been 4 basis points higher.
第四季度,除重大資產外的綜合淨利差為 120 個基點,而上一季度為 121 個基點,主要反映了資產提前償付,但大部分被新業務增長和另類投資組合更高的回報所抵消。考慮到我們對另類投資組合 11% 的預期回報,第四季的淨利差將高出 4 個基點。
Both the fourth quarter and the full year SRE landed slightly above our previously communicated expectations.
第四季和全年的 SRE 均略高於我們先前公佈的預期。
We continue to originate new business that meets our long-term ROE targets, and that is in line with historical averages supported by our origination capabilities and highly efficient cost structure. The recently announced transaction with Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, ARI, is one such example where Athene will acquire, subject to ARI stockholder approval, $9 billion of commercial mortgage assets with attractive yields and conservative LTVs. These assets offer approximately 50 basis points to 75 basis points of additional spread versus new issue CMLs today. And importantly, Athene already knows the portfolio well given nearly 50% ownership overlap with the underlying loans.
我們不斷拓展新業務,以滿足我們的長期 ROE 目標,並且與歷史平均水平保持一致,這得益於我們的業務拓展能力和高效的成本結構。最近宣布與 Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) 達成的交易就是一個例子,Athene 將收購價值 90 億美元的商業抵押貸款資產(需經 ARI 股東批准),這些資產具有誘人的收益率和保守的貸款價值比 (LTV)。這些資產與目前新發行的 CML 相比,可提供約 50 至 75 個基點的額外利差。更重要的是,由於 Athene 與相關貸款有近 50% 的所有權重疊,因此 Athene 對該投資組合已經非常了解。
Turning to principal investing, realized performance fees of $588 million in the fourth quarter were driven by carry from several strategies. Fund 10 appreciated above its escrow ratio for the first time, allowing us to receive a catch-up of carry previously accrued.
從自有投資的角度來看,第四季實現的業績費為 5.88 億美元,主要得益於幾項策略的收益分成。基金 10 的增值首次超過了其託管比率,使我們能夠獲得先前累積的追趕收益。
Accord plus completed a full portfolio monetization following the one-year anniversary after its investment period and our credit hedge fund credit strategies recognized its annual crystallization upon generating very strong performance.
Accord plus 在投資期滿一年後完成了全部投資組合的變現,而我們的信貸對沖基金信貸策略在取得非常強勁的業績後,也實現了年度收益。
Our operating tax rate in the fourth quarter benefited from large deductions related to employee stock compensation due to a higher stock price on delivery. We continue to expect our multiyear tax rate to be approximately 20% subject to quarterly variability.
由於股票交割時價格較高,員工股票補償方面的大額扣除額使我們第四季的營業稅率下降。我們預計多年稅率仍將維持在 20% 左右,但會根據季度情況有所波動。
On capital allocation, we've returned approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders via dividends and repurchases during the year, while also allocating capital to strategically invest in future growth. With respect to dividends, we intend to increase the annual per share amount by 10% from $2.04 to $2.25 commencing with the first quarter of 2026. This continues our commitment to returning capital through dividends, which we intend to grow approximately 10% annually or roughly half the growth rate of FRE, as well as share repurchases to immunize equity-based compensation.
在資本配置方面,我們今年透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 15 億美元,同時也分配了資本,用於對未來成長進行策略性投資。關於股息,我們計劃從 2026 年第一季開始,將每股年度股息金額提高 10%,從 2.04 美元提高到 2.25 美元。這延續了我們透過分紅返還資本的承諾,我們計劃每年分紅增長約 10%,或 FRE 增長率的一半左右,同時進行股票回購,以抵消股權激勵的影響。
As we enter 2026, we do so with significant embedded momentum across the platform and a clear line of sight to continued earnings growth. As we previously communicated, we expect FRE to grow by 20%-plus with 75% of the revenue contribution coming from well-established core businesses such as asset-backed finance, direct lending, multi-credit and hybrid as well as the annualization of growth already in the ground. The remaining 25% of top line growth we expect to come from euro initiatives such as Apollo Sports Capital and Athora's pending acquisition of PIC.
進入 2026 年,我們擁有強大的平台發展勢頭,並有清晰的獲利持續成長前景。正如我們之前所溝通的,我們預計 FRE 將成長 20% 以上,其中 75% 的收入貢獻來自成熟的核心業務,如資產抵押貸款、直接貸款、多信貸和混合業務,以及已經實現的年度成長。我們預計剩餘 25% 的營收成長將來自歐元區項目,例如 Apollo Sports Capital 和 Athora 即將收購 PIC。
Specific to FRE expenses, we expect low double-digit growth in non-comp costs, inclusive of a full year of Bridge. Compensation cost growth will reflect investments in the build-out to support the six markets and further senior hires in specific areas as well as a full year of comp costs associated with Bridge. In sum, growing at a high teens growth rate.
具體到 FRE 費用,我們預計非補償成本將出現兩位數的低成長,其中包括一整年的 Bridge 費用。薪資成本成長將反映為支持六個市場而進行的建設投資,以及在特定領域進一步招募高階人才,以及與 Bridge 相關的一整年的薪資成本。總之,以十幾歲的高速增長。
For SRE, we anticipate 10% growth and assuming an 11% alts return or approximately $3.85 billion in 2026. This outlook is consistent with our detailed Retirement Services business update from last November.
對於 SRE,我們預計將成長 10%,並假設另類投資報酬率為 11%,即到 2026 年約為 38.5 億美元。這項展望與我們去年11月發布的詳細的退休服務業務更新報告一致。
Since the merger with Athene, which closed at the beginning of 2022, we have generated compound annual growth in adjusted net income of 17%, more than double that of S&P 500 companies over the same period. As we enter 2026, we are extremely well positioned to continue delivering durable performance and compounding value for our shareholders.
自 2022 年初與 Athene 合併完成以來,我們的調整後淨收入年複合成長率為 17%,是同期標普 500 指數公司成長率的兩倍多。進入 2026 年,我們已做好充分準備,繼續為股東帶來持久的業績成長和不斷提升的價值。
And with that, I'll hand the call back to the operator. We appreciate your time, and we welcome your questions.
然後,我會把電話轉回給接線生。感謝您抽出時間,歡迎您提出問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Mike Brown of UBS.
(操作說明)瑞銀集團的麥克布朗。
Michael Brown - Analyst
Michael Brown - Analyst
So I wanted to start on, Martin, you commented on the ARI transaction. I actually wanted to start there. Can you just unpack a little bit of the implications to SRE here? Just looking at the loans, they have a nice high yield of about 7.7%. So just thinking through that, how can that help with the spread?
所以我想先從馬丁你對ARI交易的評論說起。我其實想從那裡開始。您能否簡要解釋一下這對 SRE 的影響?單看貸款,它們的收益率就相當高,約 7.7%。那麼仔細想想,這如何幫助控制疫情傳播呢?
Can that drive spread higher? Or is it something that kind of just helps drive growth for Athene? And then what are some of the offsets that we need to consider when we think about how that could play through for SRE?
這會導致利差進一步擴大嗎?或者說,這只是有助於推動 Athene 發展的因素之一?那麼,當我們考慮這會對 SRE 產生怎樣的影響時,我們需要考慮哪些抵銷因素呢?
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So it's Marc to start, and then we'll get to the specifics of your question. If you think about what's going on, institutions are looking really hard for durable spread, safe yield, if you will. Individuals, for at least retail investors and stocks, trade these vehicles at a discount. The notion of us continuing to invest into vehicles that don't create value to shareholders didn't make a lot of sense to us.
那麼,先由馬克來回答,然後我們再具體討論你的問題。想想現在的情況,機構投資人都在努力尋找持久的利差,也就是安全的收益。對於個人投資者(至少是散戶投資者和股票投資者)來說,交易這些工具的價格通常較低。我們覺得繼續投資那些無法為股東創造價值的投資工具,這種做法沒什麼意義。
And so for us, the best outcome was to transfer the portfolio at fair market value from the public company, which is trading at a discount to NAV, to primarily Athene, but will ultimately be other third-party buyers for loans that they already know that offer them spreads in excess of what's available in the current market. This is just, for us, just common sense.
因此,對我們來說,最好的結果是將投資組合以公允市場價值從這家交易價格低於淨資產值的上市公司轉移給 Athene,但最終將轉移給其他第三方買家,因為他們已經知道這些貸款可以提供高於當前市場價格的利差。對我們來說,這只是常識而已。
Again, just to focus, and we see this across our business, the structure of some of these vehicles, particularly the closed-end vehicles, just historically have traded at discounts, at a point in time when the assets themselves are very scarce.
再次強調,我們在整個業務中都看到了這種情況,某些投資工具(尤其是封閉式投資工具)的結構歷來都是以折價交易的,而此時資產本身卻非常稀缺。
As we transfer those assets to Athene, it will not be a full net benefit of, for instance, $9 billion with excess spread because we maintain a diversified portfolio, it will displace other forms of SRE lending. And Martin's comments on our confidence in the 10% SRE for the year embeds the notion of this portfolio as opposed to it being additive. I don't know if either Jim or Martin, you --
當我們把這些資產轉移到 Athene 時,例如,由於我們維持多元化的投資組合,因此不會獲得 90 億美元的淨收益以及超額利差,這將取代其他形式的 SRE 貸款。Martin 對我們今年 10% SRE 的信心的評論,體現了該投資組合的概念,而不是其累積性。我不知道吉姆或馬丁是否…你--
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
Yes, I think Marc has captured the philosophy of getting the right cost of capital and the right investor capital on certain assets. And again, this is just a basic philosophy about how we approach all of these vehicles. And so the idea of having a pool of assets that are institutionally in high demand in a vehicle trading at a historic discount does not make philosophical sense for it.
是的,我認為馬克已經抓住了在某些資產上獲得合適的資本成本和合適的投資者資本的概念。再次強調,這只是我們對待所有這些車輛的基本概念。因此,將機構需求量很高的資產池放在一個以歷史性折扣交易的工具中,這種想法在哲學上是說不通的。
So it goes into a principal mindset and alignment at the core of what we do. And I'll let Martin talk about the philosophy and the specifics, excuse me.
所以,這牽涉到我們工作的核心原則和一致性。至於理念和具體細節,就讓馬丁來談談吧,不好意思。
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
Sure. So it's -- I think it's clear, Mike, that our objective here is to deliver 10% SRE growth. And so this transaction, while not contemplated in the prior guidance we gave, sort of helps derisk the year. And so that's -- I would view it as a part of steps delivering 10% history growth, but don't assume it's more than that. We're focused on 10% annual growth over time.
當然。所以——我想很明顯,麥克,我們的目標是實現 10% 的 SRE 成長。因此,雖然這筆交易並未在我們先前的指導下提及,但它在某種程度上有助於降低今年的風險。所以,我認為這是實現 10% 歷史成長的步驟之一,但不要以為會超過這個數字。我們的目標是實現每年10%的成長。
Operator
Operator
Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.
Alex Blostein,高盛集團。
Alexander Blostein - Analyst
Alexander Blostein - Analyst
I was hoping we could spend a minute on dynamics in the nontraded BDC space and ADS and your comments there specifically. So obviously, it's been a little bit more turbulent with redemptions picking up and gross sales have generally slowed down, and that's really even before all the software headlines from the last week or so.
我希望我們能花點時間討論非上市 BDC 和 ADS 領域的動態,特別是您在這方面的看法。顯然,隨著兌換量的增加和總銷售額的普遍放緩,市場出現了一些波動,而這甚至還沒有受到過去一周左右軟體產業新聞的影響。
To your point, ADS, I think, is in mid-teens exposure to software, and you talked obviously about other features that make the product perhaps less risky than what's out there. Is that resonating with advisers in the channels? How do you think the competitive position of ADS will look over the next sort of 6 to 12 months from a net flow perspective when it comes to this part of the market?
正如您所說,ADS 的軟體使用年齡大約在青少年中期,而且您顯然也談到了其他一些功能,這些功能可能使該產品比市面上的其他產品風險更低。通路中的顧問們是否對此有所共鳴?從淨流量的角度來看,您認為未來 6 到 12 個月內,ADS 在該細分市場的競爭地位會如何?
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
Yes, Alex, it's Jim. Yes, there's no doubt that what's happening today, we have been consistent for the last 24 months, if not longer, about the philosophy in terms of portfolio construction with regards to ADS. 100% senior secured, first lien, no PIC, no ARR. And all of those themes have resonated historically, but certainly resonating currently as well.
是的,Alex,我是Jim。是的,毫無疑問,我們今天所採取的策略,在過去24個月甚至更長時間內,在ADS投資組合建構方面一直保持一致。 100%優先擔保,第一順位抵押,無PIC,無ARR。這些主題在歷史上都引起了共鳴,而且在今天也引起了共鳴。
We had a net -- even though with a small below-the-line redemption in the fourth quarter, net new assets were up every quarter last year, over $5 billion of net inflows. And yes, it's resounding to many of the distribution channels that it's the alignment and philosophy, but it's return without reaching.
儘管第四季出現了少量離線贖回,但去年每季淨新增資產都在成長,淨流入超過 50 億美元。是的,很多通路都認同這種理念和方向,但卻是沒有付出就獲得回報。
So yes, we expect the numbers, as you mentioned were a little bit over double digit in terms of aggregate software exposure. But when you really take -- again, it's really more about selectivity than it is real exposure.
所以,是的,正如您所提到的,我們預計軟體風險敞口總額會略高於兩位數。但當你真正去了解——再說一遍,這其實更多的是關於選擇性,而不是真正的接觸。
And when you look at our software PIK exposure, negligible; when you look at our software ARR exposure, negligible; when you look at our pre-'21, '22 software exposure, negligible. And so those folks who really are students of the product are able to really differentiate. And we expect to be picking up share in that product.
而且,看看我們的軟體 PIK 風險敞口,微乎其微;看看我們的軟體 ARR 風險敞口,微乎其微;看看我們 2021 年之前、2022 年的軟體風險敞口,微乎其微。因此,那些真正研究過產品的人能夠真正區分開來。我們預計該產品的市佔率將會不斷擴大。
But also, we've been clear in the last 24 months that investors should diversify away from their corporate exposure in terms of a broader portfolio approach, and that's why we're so excited about ABC, really the flagship vehicle in the marketplace in terms of asset-backed portfolio construction. So we couldn't be happier about our current position and feel like we'll accelerate, capture greater market share. And investors are really seeing that rather than chasing the hot dot.
但在過去 24 個月裡,我們也明確表示,投資者應該透過更廣泛的投資組合方式來分散對企業的敞口,這就是為什麼我們對 ABC 如此興奮的原因,它確實是資產支持型投資組合構建領域的市場旗艦產品。因此,我們對目前的地位感到無比滿意,並相信我們將加速發展,獲得更大的市場份額。投資者確實看到了這一點,而不是一味追逐熱門項目。
Operator
Operator
Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.
Glenn Schorr,Evercore ISI。
Glenn Schorr - Analyst
Glenn Schorr - Analyst
Just continuing on your ongoing theme of the total portfolio approach, excess return per unit of risk. I would imagine at times like this, we're going to see some really differentiated performance. That goes across all your asset classes. So I guess I'm curious, maybe more on the institutional side, what was the interaction with LPs over the last week or two?
繼續您先前關於整體投資組合方法、單位風險的超額收益的主題。我想在這樣的時期,我們會看到一些非常不同的表現。這適用於您的所有資產類別。所以我很好奇,或許更多的是從機構角度來說,過去一兩週與有限合夥人(LP)的互動情況如何?
And where I'm coming from is, are there any bigger implications from what happened, meaning are LPs rethinking size of allocation to privates in general or just maybe a switch in terms of structure and having more liquid vehicles as part of their mindset? I'm just curious if you'd opine on that.
我的意思是,這件事是否會帶來更大的影響,例如有限合夥人是否會重新考慮對私募股權基金的配置規模,或者只是在結構上做出改變,將流動性更強的投資工具納入他們的思維模式?我只是好奇你對此有何看法。
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So it's Marc, Glenn, and then I'll turn it over to Jim after. A lot of what's playing out is playing out in the public markets. Recall, and I know the concern on BDCs and private credit and direct origination as it relates to software. But I always remind people that that is first lien. Most of the investments that are made into these private BDCs are derisking for the individual making the investment.
所以先是馬克,然後是格倫,之後我會把麥克風交給吉姆。很多正在發生的事情都在公開市場中上演。回想一下,我知道大家對商業發展公司 (BDC)、私人信貸和直接貸款發放與軟體相關的擔憂。但我總是提醒人們,那是第一順位抵押權。對這些私人商業發展公司的大部分投資,對投資者而言都是一種降低風險的方式。
They are not selling their treasury exposure. What they're doing is they're selling their equity exposure and they're making an intelligent decision that they can earn roughly long-term equity returns in first lien debt versus an equity.
他們並沒有出售其持有的國債。他們正在做的,是出售他們的股權,他們做出了一個明智的決定,即透過優先擔保債務而不是股權,可以獲得大致相同的長期股權回報。
The equity exposure and the pricing of what's happened in software-related and other related has been extreme. We're talking, in some instances, quality companies down 50% to 70%. This is why people are in first lien to begin with.
軟體及其他相關領域的股權風險敞口和定價都非常極端。在某些情況下,我們說的是優質公司股價下跌 50% 到 70%。這就是為什麼人們一開始就擁有第一順位抵押權的原因。
When you translate it over to the institutional side, you have a little bit of the same phenomenon. And so I do think that there is going to be increased dispersion amongst managers. It's been easy for a really long period of time, and as Jim suggested, in private markets, particularly private equity, it had been almost 30% of the -- software has been over 30% of the market for a decade. Software is still an amazing business, but you may not like the purchase price at which you entered because you get to now look at the same companies down 50% to 70%. And that's the public companies.
當你把這個問題轉移到製度層面時,你會發現類似的現象。所以我認為,管理人員之間的分散程度將會增加。很長一段時間以來,這都很容易,正如吉姆所建議的那樣,在私人市場,特別是私募股權市場,軟體已經佔據了近 30% 的市場份額——十年來,軟體一直佔據著超過 30% 的市場份額。軟體產業依然非常出色,但你可能不喜歡當初的買入價格,因為現在同樣的公司股價可能下跌了 50% 到 70%。以上指的是上市公司。
And I have to believe the private markets with leverage will go down equally as much. And so I expect that we will be, along with a handful of other managers, prettier, than we have been historically.
我相信,擁有槓桿的私人市場也會同樣大幅下跌。因此,我預期我們和其他幾位經理一樣,會比以往更加漂亮。
The other thing to think about is so much of the conversation has taken place around the alternative bucket. And what we see, the vast majority of growth going forward is going to take place outside of the alternative bucket. Some of the wins in fixed income replacement, some of the wins into PRIV, some of the wins into AAA are institutional. And we see -- and I think you will see an acceleration of the institutional business going forward.
另一點要考慮的是,許多討論都圍繞著「另類選擇」。我們看到,未來絕大多數的成長將發生在另類投資領域之外。固定收益替代領域的一些成功案例、PRIV領域的一些成功案例、AAA領域的一些成功案例都是機構投資者取得的。我們看到—而且我認為你會看到,未來機構業務將會加速發展。
I'm going to belabor this a little bit because this will be a theme across our business. Going back to the six markets, the first, of course, is the institutional alternatives portfolio business. The second has garnered most of the attention, which is the wealth business. But if you think about the other buckets, insurance, that's an institutional business. If you think about the debt and equity portfolios of institutions, that's an institutional business.
我打算稍微詳細地闡述這一點,因為這將是我們業務的一個主題。回到這六個市場,第一個當然是機構另類投資組合業務。第二個領域最受關注,那就是財富管理產業。但如果你想想其他領域,例如保險,那是一項機構業務。如果你考慮一下機構的債務和股權投資組合,那就是一項機構業務。
The serving of traditional asset managers is an institutional business. 401(k), while we think retail is making a choice, it's actually not. It's an institutional business, because it's being made primarily by trustees and by consultants and by other forms of gatekeepers.
為傳統資產管理公司提供服務屬於機構業務。至於401(k)計劃,雖然我們通常認為這是散戶投資者的選擇,但實際上並非如此。這是一個機構化的行業,因為它主要由受託人、顧問和其他形式的把關人來決定。
I think you're going to see a change in the dialogue amongst the managers of private assets as they fully embrace this, which is not that wealth is not important, not that it's not going to grow. It's just the most visible. These other markets have every bit as much opportunity. And I continue to come back to the theme I've been on for quite a while, our business at the end of the day will vary from quarter-to-quarter, but it is not ultimately constrained by capital. There's plenty of demand for private assets.
我認為,隨著私人資產管理者們完全接受這一點,你會看到他們的對話發生變化,這並不是說財富不重要,也不是說財富不會成長。它只是最顯眼的而已。其他市場也同樣蘊藏著巨大的機會。我還是要回到我一直以來都在強調的主題,歸根結底,我們的業務每季都會有所不同,但最終並不受資本的限制。私人資產需求旺盛。
What it is constrained by is the ability to originate things that are worth buying. We are so focused on getting this origination side, right, not just in terms of volume but with a principal mindset where we're originating risk we are prepared to own, turns out clients like when you are side-by-side with them as opposed to selling to them.
它所受到的限制在於能否創造出值得購買的產品。我們非常注重做好業務拓展這方面,不僅要關注業務量,更要秉持一種原則,即我們開展的業務風險是我們願意承擔的。事實證明,客戶喜歡你與他們並肩作戰,而不是向他們推銷產品。
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
I'd also add, I think there's -- I'm taking a step back here, but so much of the conversation in the last several weeks has been about a quick reset of prices in the public equity market and then the impact to non-investment-grade software lending, which has been particularly focused well by the nontraded BDCs.
我還要補充一點,我認為——我在這裡要退一步說了,但過去幾週的許多討論都圍繞著公開股票市場價格的快速重置以及對非投資級軟體貸款的影響,而非上市商業發展公司(BDC)尤其關注這一點。
We put out a deck in December, and all the conversation recently has been about the narrow sector, the $2 trillion to $3 trillion of private credit, and it's really not touching the $35 trillion to $40 trillion opportunity in investment-grade private credit. In the last 18 months, short duration IG vehicle, a strategy we really started 18 months ago, is up to over $7 billion in assets. And again, that's private investment grade across the board a variety of industries. And so it just seems like the headlines are focusing on the small pond.
我們在 12 月發布了一份報告,但最近所有的討論都集中在狹義的領域,即 2 兆至 3 兆美元的私人信貸,而實際上並沒有觸及投資級私人信貸領域 35 兆至 40 兆美元的機會。在過去的 18 個月裡,我們真正開始實施的短期投資等級工具策略,在 18 個月前就已經累積了超過 70 億美元的資產。而且,這指的是各行業各層面的私人投資等級。所以,新聞頭條似乎都集中在這個小池塘上了。
And there's no doubt there's going to be dispersion among various debt and equity managers who have pursued growth in technology in the last several years. Our Fund 11 -- Fund 10, Fund 11 are going to be big beneficiaries of the value versus growth mentality.
毫無疑問,在過去幾年裡,許多債務和股權基金經理人都在追求科技領域的成長,因此他們的投資將會分散。我們的第 11 期基金-第 10 期基金和第 11 期基金將成為價值投資而非成長投資理念的主要受益者。
But again, I really think taking a step back and really understanding how the big boulders are moving. This is a discussion when we talk about nontraded BDCs. That's about pebbles, what Marc is talking about, about boulders. It's much more thematic and it's truly what's driving our business over the next 5 to 10 years.
但話說回來,我真的覺得應該退後一步,真正了解那些巨石是如何移動的。這是我們討論非上市商業發展公司時會涉及的議題。馬克說的那些都是小石子,都是巨石。它更具主題性,而且這才是未來 5 到 10 年真正推動我們業務發展的動力。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.
Patrick Davitt,自主研究。
Patrick Davitt - Analyst
Patrick Davitt - Analyst
I have another question on the total portfolio changes. And I agree that that could be a big opportunity for alternatives and specifically Apollo. Big step last year with CalPERS announcing their shift. So curious to what extent you're hearing other large pensions planning to follow suit. And how quickly do you think we'll start to see meaningful reallocations of that capital around the new approach?
關於投資組合總變化,我還有另一個問題。我同意,這對於替代能源公司,特別是阿波羅公司來說,可能是一個很大的機會。去年加州公共僱員退休系統(CalPERS)宣布轉型,邁出了重要一步。我很想知道您是否聽說其他大型退休基金也計劃效仿。你認為我們多久才能看到圍繞新方法對這些資金進行有意義的重新配置?
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
I would just say it's really important, when Marc laid out the five additional channels, the speed at which they all individually and collectively adopt is going to be start-stop. The public institutional marketplace is not known to be a business where those who are in charge take historic institutional risk. And so, it's going to be measured. It's going to be -- that's why we're focusing on all six, not just one.
我想說的是,當 Marc 提出這五個新增管道時,它們各自以及共同採用的速度將會是斷斷續續的,這一點非常重要。眾所周知,公共機構市場並非由掌權者承擔歷史性機構風險的產業。所以,它將被衡量。正因如此,我們才要關注全部六個項目,而不僅僅是一個。
But I'll give you one example, like the conversations that have been going on in the industry, and in particular with us, with our Apollo Sports Capital, those are areas where institutions are trying to figure out where the opportunities are, not in the narrow definitions of asset classes.
但我可以舉個例子,就像業內,特別是我們阿波羅體育資本公司一直在進行的對話一樣,這些都是機構試圖弄清楚機會在哪裡的領域,而不是在資產類別的狹義定義中。
What we've done in the insurance, Athene, Sidecar ADIP, those are all areas where institutions have said, how can I make sure that the normal definitions of equity and fixed income traditionally are not going to limit my ability to perform?
我們在保險業、Athene、Sidecar ADIP 等領域所做的一切,都是機構們一直在思考的問題:如何確保傳統的股票和固定收益的定義不會限制我的表現?
And I think whether it's family offices, whether it's institutional buyers, whether it's those, the traditional asset managers, they're all trying to find areas outside the norms of the boundaries, and that's what's going to drive this over time. It's really about how to create better risk-adjusted returns and not being a prisoner to the barriers of adoption in terms of your mandate.
我認為無論是家族辦公室、機構買家,還是傳統的資產管理公司,他們都在努力尋找常規邊界之外的領域,而這正是未來發展趨勢的驅動力。關鍵在於如何創造更好的風險調整後收益,而不是在職責範圍內受到推廣障礙的束縛。
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
If anything is going to speed it up, Patrick, it will be volatility. Public market volatility is ultimately a significant imperative, we're seeing an accelerant to people's changing up mindset. Trustees and heads of plans who have watched assets grow, pretty consistently over a long period of time, get a little bit of shock when they see the kinds of volatility in their portfolio and in public markets, and they look for the same return or more return but with less risk.
派崔克,如果有什麼能加速這個進程,那就是市場波動。公開市場的波動最終是一個重要的必然因素,我們看到它加速了人們思維方式的轉變。長期以來,受託人和計畫負責人眼看著資產穩定成長,當他們看到自己的投資組合和公開市場出現如此劇烈的波動時,難免會感到有些震驚。他們希望在風險更小的情況下獲得相同甚至更高的回報。
Operator
Operator
Bill Katz,TD Cowen.
比爾·卡茨,TD·考恩。
Bill Katz - Analyst
Bill Katz - Analyst
I wanted to maybe tie some big picture, some of the boulders together, to use Jim's analogy. I like that one. Could you talk a little bit about where you might be on the origination opportunity clearly running, what, four years ahead of schedule already, how that may influence the opportunity set in ACS? And then maybe how we should think about the margin profile as we look into '27 and '28 FRE margin profile.
我想把一些大局,一些大塊的事物連結起來,用吉姆的比喻來說就是把這些大塊的事物連結起來。我喜歡那個。能否談談您在業務拓展方面目前的進展?目前,您的業務已經比原計劃提前了四年,這會對 ACS 的機會設定產生怎樣的影響?然後,當我們研究 2027 年和 2028 年 FRE 利潤率時,或許應該如何考慮利潤率狀況。
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
Great. So I think, Bill, the way -- you just went and answered that, is if you look at the $305 billion last year, $245 billion was really North America, $40 billion Europe, $15 billion, $20 billion in Asia, we're taking this strategy global. The answer to your question, big picture, is we're going to take a very successful strategy of integrating origination to every aspect of our business. We're taking it global. And we're going to make sure that in Europe and Asia Pac, that the same tools, the same partnership, the same platforms are executing in that part of the globe.
偉大的。所以我覺得,比爾,正如你剛才回答的那樣,如果你看去年的 3050 億美元,其中 2450 億美元實際上來自北美,400 億美元來自歐洲,150 億美元和 200 億美元來自亞洲,我們正在將這一戰略推向全球。從宏觀角度來看,你的問題的答案是,我們將採取非常成功的策略,將貸款發放融入我們業務的各個方面。我們要把它推向全球。我們將確保在歐洲和亞太地區,同樣的工具、同樣的合作夥伴關係、同樣的平台都能在世界這些地區執行。
But we're really focused on quality as well as scale. We certainly have shown an ability to originate scale, but it's really growth with intention. And so I want to make sure that we're not overemphasizing the growth in this point. We have a ton of robust yield, robust spread, and that's what we're trying to do.
但我們非常注重品質和規模。我們確實展現了擴大規模的能力,但這實際上是有計劃的成長。因此,我想確保我們不要過度強調這一點上的成長。我們擁有大量的穩健收益和穩健的利差,而這正是我們努力的目標。
So in my mind, it really is the globalization of the strategy. And it's also into these ecosystem activities like you see in Apollo Sports Capital, I would suspect to see a handful more of those ecosystem strategies where we can be completely relevant in terms of the cost of capital and the toolbox to the companies embedded in that ecosystem.
所以在我看來,這其實是策略的全球化。而且,它也參與到像 Apollo Sports Capital 這樣的生態系統活動中,我預計會看到更多類似的生態系統策略,在這些策略中,我們可以在資本成本和工具箱方面與嵌入該生態系統的公司完全相關。
And why it works so well for sports is very simple. It's one where the quality of cash flows are not in a regular manner. They are regular cash flows. There's been a tremendous amount of growth in valuation. There's a limitation to the actual funding and lending in the area as many so many have focused on the equity returns.
它在體育運動中如此有效的原因很簡單。這是一個現金流品質不穩定的公司。這些都是定期現金流。估值出現了巨大的成長。該地區的實際融資和貸款有其局限性,因為許多人只關注股權回報。
And so we're just finding with a holistic toolbox, like we did for sponsors, there's a great deal of reception. So the answer is global. The answer is focusing on quality and as well as scale in these focused ecosystem strategies.
因此,我們發現,像我們為贊助商提供的那樣,提供一套全面的工具箱會受到很大的歡迎。所以答案是全球性的。答案在於,在這些聚焦的生態系統策略中,既要注重質量,也要注重規模。
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'm going to just take the liberty of maybe going off piece a little bit. We've seen over the past month or so a number of acquisitions in our industry. And I want to say that from our point of view, if you think about where our business is going, it's all about origination and having the product and then building the capabilities to serve five markets, that we've never served before as an industry. So all of the firms were built to serve the institutional alternative bucket, draw down funds, product-specific sales forces, relatively slow moving, fine with quarterly marks.
我打算稍微偏離一下原著。在過去一個月左右的時間裡,我們看到業內出現了一系列收購事件。我想說,從我們的角度來看,如果你想想我們業務的發展方向,那就是一切的關鍵在於產品研發和擁有產品,然後建立服務於五個我們這個行業以前從未涉足過的市場的能力。因此,所有這些公司都是為了服務於機構另類投資市場而建立的,提取資金,擁有專門針對特定產品的銷售團隊,行動相對緩慢,對季度業績感到滿意。
These five markets are totally different. You're seeing some of the firms build out significant wealth strategies. But you have yet to see the rest of the industry build out to serve the other markets that are now available to us. And so when you think about what we're trying to do, we're trying to make sure that we don't grow too fast, that we can only grow as fast as we originate. Therefore, if we want to grow, we have to originate that scale in quality.
這五個市場截然不同。你會看到一些公司正在製定重要的財富策略。但你還沒有看到其他行業發展壯大,以服務我們現在可以進入的其他市場。所以,當你思考我們正在做的事情時,我們試圖確保我們不會發展得太快,我們的發展速度只能和我們最初的發展速度一樣快。因此,如果我們想要發展壯大,就必須從品質入手,實現規模化。
At the same time, we understand that every time you buy something, it comes with people. And integration on a cultural basis is very difficult. And so unless something is exceptional, we just prefer to build it ourselves.
同時,我們也明白,你每次購買東西,都會牽涉到人。文化融合非常困難。因此,除非有特殊情況,否則我們更傾向於自己動手製作。
Sports Capital is a really good example, not to say that there are not -- there's not value in acquisition, if you need to. But the ability to put a team on the ground in an industry that is very valuable, growing very fast, that produces uneven cash flows, therefore, is not industry to bank or for public markets, in addition to deploying the $6 or so billion in the Sports Capital fund, I believe this ecosystem will generate $30 billion to $50 billion of origination opportunities.
體育資本就是一個很好的例子,當然,這並不是說沒有好例子——如果你需要的話,收購是有價值的。但是,在一個非常有價值、成長非常快、現金流不穩定的行業中組建團隊的能力,對於銀行或公開市場來說,除了在體育資本基金中部署約 60 億美元之外,我相信這個生態系統將產生 300 億至 500 億美元的投資機會。
I think you are more likely to see us grow, as Jim said, globalizing what we have and then building organically the platforms that we need to, to penetrate industries that require specialized knowledge and deserve a specialized pool of capital.
我認為更有可能的是,正如吉姆所說,我們將發展壯大,將我們現有的資源全球化,然後有機地建立我們需要的平台,以滲透到需要專業知識和值得擁有專門資本的行業。
And so we often say the strategy here, let's look through the windshield, not through the rearview mirror. We have so much white space in front of us. It's up to us to now prepare the business, not just to hit the five-year plan, but for what comes next.
所以我們常說,這裡的策略是,讓我們透過擋風玻璃看世界,而不是透過後視鏡看世界。我們面前有好多空白。現在,我們有責任為企業做好準備,不僅要實現五年計劃,還要為未來做好準備。
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
And Bill, let me address here you're talking questions on margins because it's important, obviously. So you should expect a FRE margin expansion over time. And we're always balancing, as you know, investing in new capabilities to build the platform with extracting efficiencies from the current business. So I would think something like 100 basis points annually as we go forward, that's sort of the guidepost that we set for ourselves, with the puts and takes netting into that.
比爾,讓我來回答你提到的利潤率問題,因為這顯然很重要。因此,您應該預期FRE利潤率會隨著時間的推移而擴大。如您所知,我們一直在努力平衡投資於建立平台的新功能與從現有業務中提高效率之間的關係。所以我認為,未來每年大約是 100 個基點,這算是我們為自己設定的指導方針,看跌期權和看漲期權的淨額都計入其中。
Operator
Operator
Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.
麥可‧西普里斯,摩根士丹利。
Michael Cyprys - Equity Analyst
Michael Cyprys - Equity Analyst
I wanted to ask about fundraising. You've had a very strong year in '25, about -- over $180 billion organic inflows. I think you mentioned you're targeting $150 billion on an annual basis. So just curious how you think about the outperformance this past year relative to that $150 billion guide. To what extent does that make sense?
我想諮詢一下籌款方面的問題。2025 年你們業績非常強勁,有機流入超過 1800 億美元。我想你提到你們的目標是每年達到1500億美元。所以,我很好奇您如何看待過去一年相對於1500億美元的預期收益而言的優異表現。這種說法在多大程度上是合理的?
What might be areas where flows could be slower, I guess, if that does make sense? But then at the same time, it sounds like you're pretty confident in '26, maybe even being better, particularly in the Athene. So maybe you could speak to the confidence there. What you see contributing? And maybe you could elaborate on what's in the kitchen in terms of things that might be rolling out.
我想問一下,哪些區域的流量可能會比較慢?但同時,聽起來你對 2026 年的表現相當有信心,甚至可能更好,尤其是在雅典娜錦標賽中。所以或許你可以談談那裡的自信心。你認為哪些因素會起作用?或許您可以詳細介紹一下廚房裡有什麼食材,以及可能會推出哪些新品。
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
Yes. So Mike, I would say we feel like we have a tremendous wind in to our back across the -- let's separate Athene and Apollo Asset Management for a moment. On the Apollo Asset Management side, global wealth prime for continued growth. And on the institutional business, we do have Fund 11 in the marketplace.
是的。所以麥克,我想說我們感覺我們正乘著強勁的順風前進——讓我們暫時把 Athene 和 Apollo Asset Management 分開來看。阿波羅資產管理公司方面,全球財富可望持續成長。在機構業務方面,我們目前有第 11 號基金在市場上銷售。
But also, when you think about the product set of the asset-backed ecosystem, the hybrid ecosystem, Sports Capital and such, we believe that this year will be the strongest year on record for us in that area.
但是,考慮到資產支持型生態系統、混合生態系統、體育資本等產品組合,我們相信今年將是我們在該領域有史以來表現最強勁的一年。
So we're unambiguous about our ability to outshine on the Apollo Asset Management side. Again, on the Athene side, strong numbers across their four channels. We expect that to replicate it. So when you do -- when you add those two together, we're solidly north of $150 billion again for the Apollo and Athene side in collective shape.
因此,我們對自己在阿波羅資產管理方面脫穎而出的能力毫不含糊。同樣,Athene 的四個頻道都獲得了強勁的收視率。我們預計這將重現這一結果。所以,當你把這兩個加起來,Apollo 和 Athene 的總規模又穩穩地超過了 1500 億美元。
I would say we feel like we're actually grabbing our fair share in a variety of asset classes that we had not done before. When we think about our whole fixed income replacement product suite, things like the short-duration IG vehicle, core IG, the asset-backed area, amongst many, we're just seeing a variety of ability for us to pick up.
我認為我們感覺自己實際上在以前從未涉足的各種資產類別中獲得了應有的份額。當我們考慮我們整個固定收益替代產品系列時,例如短期投資等級產品、核心投資等級產品、資產支援型產品等等,我們看到了各種各樣的選擇。
And again, that's the conversation we want to be having with this group. As you talk about private capital and private credit, the natural tendency is to focus on the small non-investment-grade $2 trillion pond. I urge all of you on this phone call, focus on the $40 trillion.
再次強調,這正是我們希望與這個群體進行的對話。當你談到私人資本和私人信貸時,自然而然地將注意力集中在規模較小的2兆美元非投資級資金池上。我在此呼籲各位參與此次電話會議的人員,重點關注這 40 兆美元。
That's the opportunity set. That's what's driving volume. That's what's driving profitability. That's what's driving scale. And so I know it's great headlines about the software bump in the road. But there will be dispersion, but there's a bigger, bigger picture and don't miss that.
這就是機會所在。這就是推動銷量成長的因素。這就是獲利能力的驅動因素。這就是推動規模化發展的因素。所以我知道,關於軟體開發過程中遇到的障礙,這些都是很棒的新聞標題。但會有分散的情況,但要著眼於更大的格局,不要忽略這一點。
Operator
Operator
Ken Worthington, JPMorgan.
Ken Worthington,摩根大通。
Kenneth Worthington - Analyst
Kenneth Worthington - Analyst
As we think about performance fees for 2026, you highlighted in the deck that 2025 was light in part to sizable PE and hybrid activity that was prudently delayed. With market conditions better, can you help us think about your pipeline of deal activity should market conditions remain accommodative, and how you see this flowing through into carry and performance fees?
當我們考慮 2026 年的業績費時,您在簡報中強調,2025 年業績費較低,部分原因是規模較大的私募股權和混合投資活動被謹慎地推遲了。如果市場條件好轉,您能否幫我們思考一下,在市場條件保持寬鬆的情況下,您的交易活動計劃將如何進行,以及您認為這將如何轉化為收益分成和業績報酬?
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
The most unpredictable part of the earning stream, that's the multiple, Ken. I think we see the optimism in the marketplace, particularly with the bank community. Activity levels are high. There's different ways to exit assets. Going through a public process is one, and private processes are more complicated.
肯,收入來源中最不可預測的部分就是倍數。我認為我們看到了市場上的樂觀情緒,尤其是在銀行業。活動水平很高。退出資產的方式有很多種。公開程序是一種情況,而私人程序則更為複雜。
So I would say we are more cautiously optimistic as we sit here now about the year ahead. But it's difficult to predict. And so it's -- that's why we have anchored ourselves to a long-term guidepost around PAI of $500 million. That remains our target. But it's not going to be a straight line clearly to get there.
所以,我認為我們現在對未來一年持更謹慎樂觀的態度。但很難預測。所以——這就是為什麼我們把 PAI 5 億美元作為長期指導方針的原因。這仍然是我們的目標。但顯然,通往目標的道路不會是一條直線。
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'd say this in the portfolio. Fund 10, which is the most recent fund is already 0.3-plus DPI versus an industry that rounds to 0. At the end of the day, when you buy things at reasonable multiples, you can sell them at reasonable multiples. That's what we've seen and that's what we've experienced, that's what I continue to experience. We are not stuck with a portfolio of things that were purchased at very high prices that now have been reset in the market where they're going to go into perma hold.
我會在作品集中說明這一點。最新成立的基金 10 的 DPI 已經超過 0.3,而整個產業的 DPI 為 0。歸根究底,當你以合理的倍數買入商品時,你就能以合理的倍數賣出它們。這就是我們所看到的,也是我們所經歷的,也是我仍在經歷的。我們不會被困在那些以極高價格購買、如今市場價格已經回落,最終只能永久持有的資產組合中。
We're in the business of creating value and moving it out. If the market is accommodative, we're going to make it happen. The market is not accommodative, we will, I believe, do better than everyone else.
我們的業務是創造價值並將其傳播出去。如果市場條件允許,我們就能促成此事。市場環境並不寬容,但我相信,我們會比其他人做得更好。
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
I would just add this, our performance in '26 is not going to be market-dependent on the equity market or the equity capital markets.
我還要補充一點,我們在 2026 年的表現不會取決於股票市場或股票資本市場。
Operator
Operator
Ben Budish, Barclays.
本·布迪什,巴克萊銀行。
Benjamin Budish - Analyst
Benjamin Budish - Analyst
I wanted to ask maybe a two-parter on just some of the dynamics going on in Athene. I guess, first, in the pension risk transfer segment, it looks like there's been some positive momentum with a number of the cases out there. Any thoughts on your expected contribution from that channel in particular in '26? Or does that require a little bit more time? And then just curious your latest thoughts on competition in the retail side, it feels like three or four quarters ago, that was a bigger issue.
我想問一個關於雅典娜遊戲中一些動態的問題,這個問題可以分成兩個部分來問。首先,在退休金風險轉移領域,似乎已經出現了一些正面的勢頭,許多案例都取得了進展。您對該通路在 2026 年的預期貢獻有什麼看法?還是這還需要一些時間?另外,我很好奇您對零售業競爭的最新看法,感覺三、四個季度前,這還是個更大的問題。
It doesn't seem to have -- been bearing its head as much more recently, but similar, high-level thoughts on the current state of competition in that channel.
雖然最近似乎沒有像以前那樣頻繁地出現,但對於該管道目前的競爭狀況,人們的看法仍然類似,屬於高層次的思考。
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So the volume targets for '26 are not dependent on PRT picking back up. You're right, the legal situation around PRT is improving. However, this is all about spread. We do not underwrite the volume, we underwrite to profitability. If you underwrite to profitability, you get to keep doing business.
因此,2026 年的銷售目標並不取決於 PRT 是否恢復正常。你說得對,有關 PRT 的法律狀況正在改善。然而,這一切都與傳播有關。我們不以承銷量為準,而是以獲利為準。只要你核保到獲利,你就能繼續經營下去。
So I think we have more than enough at bats, lots of new initiatives, broad distribution. I believe the target we've set out, which is roughly $85 billion, will be the target that we deliver. Demand for retirement products is off the charts, but it has to be done at a margin that makes sense.
所以我認為我們有足夠的機會,很多新舉措,廣泛的推廣。我相信我們設定的目標,大約 850 億美元,將會是我們能夠實現的目標。退休產品的需求空前高漲,但必須以合理的利潤率來衡量。
In terms of competition, we continue to see interesting competition in some of what I would call the lower-quality broker channels, which are not as credit dependent. As I've warned on prior calls, the business is only about earnings spread. Spread is created by having an asset origination machine, by having a liability origination machine at a low cost and by having a low OpEx.
就競爭而言,我們繼續看到一些我稱之為低品質經紀管道的有趣競爭,這些管道對信貸的依賴程度不高。正如我之前在電話會議中警告過的那樣,這項業務的關鍵在於獲利差距。利差的產生是透過擁有資產發起機制、低成本的負債發起機制以及低營運支出來實現的。
Most of the companies competing in this industry, including the established players, with very few exceptions, do not have origination of appropriate assets. They do not have a low-cost liability -- factory, and they do not produce at an efficient level.
該行業中的大多數競爭公司,包括老牌企業在內,除極少數例外,都沒有合適的資產來源。他們沒有低成本的負債——工廠,而且他們的生產效率也不高。
The only way return can be achieved is by giving away asset management fees and by moving the business offshore to Cayman, to places like that, that do not require capital.
實現回報的唯一方法是放棄資產管理費,並將業務轉移到開曼群島等不需要資本的地方。
This is not a recipe for success. Ultimately, I believe that will end badly, hopefully not badly for the industry. And I do not believe that many of these firms will hit escape velocity, because they will ultimately need to come back on more capital.
這並非成功的秘訣。最終,我認為這將以糟糕的結局收場,但願不會對產業造成不利影響。我不認為這些公司中有很多能夠快速成長,因為它們最終都需要更多的資本。
Athene is a really tough competitor. And as Jim said, this is something we've worked on for the better part of 15 years with Athene to put it in a position it's in. I like our chances. Martin gave the guidance for '26, and we're working hard to achieve what we've said we're going to do.
雅典娜是個非常強壯的對手。正如吉姆所說,我們與 Athene 合作了近 15 年,才使它達到現在的地位。我覺得我們勝算很大。Martin 為 2026 年制定了指導方針,我們正在努力實現我們所說的目標。
Operator
Operator
Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.
威爾瑪·伯迪斯,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Wilma Burdis - Analyst
Wilma Burdis - Analyst
Just following up a little bit on the last question. We did see a -- it looks like an improvement in PRT volume for the first time in two years. Maybe you could go into a little bit more detail there. And then as sort of a second part of this question, if you could talk a bit about the FAB environment and the lower flows there. And any drivers, whether it's credit spreads or anything else you're seeing in the market?
我再補充一下上一個問題。我們確實看到了——看起來PRT銷量兩年來首次有所改善。或許你可以再詳細說。然後,作為這個問題的第二部分,您能否談談 FAB 環境以及那裡的低流量情況?有哪些驅動因素,無論是信用利差還是市場上的其他因素?
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So again, this is a story of assets and of liabilities. On the asset side, it's all about the capacity to originate. As Jim suggested, this year was a very strong asset origination year, which led to the outperformance of the target. I expect based on what we've seen thus far, '26 to be an equally strong asset origination year, augmented or, I should say, protected by the ARI transaction, which will give us some initial excess flow early in the year.
所以,這又是一個關於資產負債的故事。從資產方面來看,關鍵在於創造能力。正如吉姆所說,今年是資產新增規模非常強勁的一年,這也導致了目標績效的超額完成。根據我們目前所看到的,我預計 2026 年將是資產新增業務同樣強勁的一年,ARI 交易將增強或(應該說是保護)這一勢頭,這將使我們在年初獲得一些初始盈餘資金。
On the liability side, having multiple channels is a godsend. There are places sometimes you don't want to do business. I personally don't think we've missed much in PRT over the past year. Not only have there been fewer transactions, but the spreads on those transactions, when one ultimately shines a light on them, are poor. Winning business is not about volume.
從責任面來看,擁有多個管道簡直是天賜良機。有些地方你最好不要去那裡做生意。我個人認為,過去一年我們在PRT方面並沒有錯過太多。不僅交易量減少了,最後仔細分析這些交易的價差,會發現價差也很差。贏得業務的關鍵不在於銷售量。
Winning business is about capturing profitability. At every point, we're offered the opportunity to do something that's expedient versus something that will build the book of business over the long term. Having a principal's mindset is a very, very healthy way to run the business.
贏得商業成功的關鍵在於實現獲利。在每個階段,我們都有機會選擇做一些權宜之計,而不是做一些能夠從長遠角度發展業務的事情。擁有校長思維是一種非常非常健康的經營方式。
Operator
Operator
John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.
約翰·巴尼奇,派珀·桑德勒。
John Barnidge - Analyst
John Barnidge - Analyst
My question is focused on being on the offense. If we can go back to software, digging on that a little bit more could be interesting. Maybe is it private equity, credit, both? And kind of what areas of software do you find appealing?
我的問題主要集中在進攻方面。如果我們能回到軟體領域,深入研究可能會很有趣。或許是私募股權、信貸,或是兩者兼具?你覺得軟體的哪些領域比較吸引你?
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
James Zelter - Co-President of AAM, Director
Yes. I'm just going to answer that generically. We've historically -- if you go back in our 35 years, whenever there's an over-allocation of capital, we tend to be defensive. And whenever there is a withdrawal of capital, we tend to be on our front foot. If you look at the brief pricing that's happened very, very quickly in the equity market, the valuations are certainly lower, but they're not cheap.
是的。我只能籠統地回答這個問題。從歷史來看——如果你回顧我們過去 35 年的發展歷程,每當出現資本過度配置的情況時,我們往往會採取防禦性策略。每當出現資金撤離時,我們往往都能搶得先機。如果你觀察一下股票市場中非常迅速發生的短期定價,你會發現估值確實較低,但並不便宜。
They're still very, very high from an earnings multiple and such. But many companies had plans to either grow because of organic cash generation or equity origination, and those companies may not be able to do so.
從市盈率等方面來看,它們的估值仍然非常非常高。但許多公司原本計劃透過自身現金流或股權融資來成長,而這些公司可能無法實現這一目標。
So there's no doubt that our screen of opportunities from the world of equity, particularly from the world of hybrid and, in some degrees, in the world of credit, we are as busy as we've ever been because there will be a dispersion of returns. Some business models will continue to thrive. Some will be more challenged.
因此毫無疑問,我們篩選股票市場(尤其是混合型股票市場)以及在某種程度上信貸市場的投資機會的工作量,比以往任何時候都要大,因為回報將會分散。有些商業模式會繼續蓬勃發展。有些人將面臨更大的挑戰。
But what Marc talked about earlier, I'm just going to remind folks on this call, you had companies in this sector that were priced or purchased or valued at 15 times revenue several years ago, maybe even 20 times revenue, and now they're trading at 12 times to 16 times earnings. And so there's a very large difference in that valuation gap.
但正如馬克之前提到的,我只想提醒一下在座的各位,幾年前,這個行業的一些公司被定價、收購或估值時,市銷率可能是 15 倍,甚至可能是 20 倍,而現在它們的市盈率只有 12 到 16 倍。因此,估值差距非常大。
It doesn't say they're not good companies, but the growth trajectory and the capital availability of them to acquire capital to grow was changed. So yes, there's no doubt that we're going to be much more on the offense, but there's nothing that's going to happen tomorrow that we're going to announce. This is just more of a dispersion over time and plays into how we want to be a real partner, whether it's a sponsor community or the corporate community as they need capital.
這並不意味著它們不是好公司,而是它們的成長軌跡以及獲取成長所需資金的可用性發生了變化。所以,毫無疑問,我們會更加重視進攻,但明天不會有任何我們宣布的事情發生。這只是隨著時間的推移而更加分散的結果,也反映了我們希望成為真正的合作夥伴的方式,無論是贊助商群體還是需要資金的企業群體。
Operator
Operator
Brennan Hawken, BMO Capital Markets.
Brennan Hawken,BMO資本市場。
Brennan Hawken - Analyst
Brennan Hawken - Analyst
I just had a couple on spread within SRE. I want to follow-up from Mike's question. You spoke to the 50 basis points to 75 basis points greater spread versus new issue. But how should we think about that on the net spread as you reported? We appreciate that it fits into the 10% total expectation for the year.
我剛剛在SRE領域遇到了幾個問題。我想就麥克的問題補充一些內容。您提到了與新發行債券相比,利差擴大了 50 到 75 個基點。但正如您所報道的,我們該如何看待淨價差呢?我們很高興它符合全年10%的總預期目標。
And also maybe a bit more broadly, how should we think about the cost of fund side? It sounds like there's a great deal of optimism on the origination and the asset side. Cost of funds though has steadily gone up. We hear about competition in some of those markets. And so is the expectation that the cost of funds increases will stop? Or is it more around the ability to outpace it on the asset side?
更廣泛地說,我們該如何看待資金成本的問題?聽起來,市場對貸款發放和資產都非常樂觀。然而,資金成本卻穩定上升。我們聽說其中一些市場存在競爭。那麼,資金成本上漲的預期是否會停止呢?或者說,關鍵在於能否在資產方面超越它?
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So it's Marc. I'll give you a business side and then Martin will dig in a little bit. Cost of funds is ultimately a function of bond yields. Historically, it's that, it's moved around the BBB corporate spread. Having said that, in individual channels and individual times and individual quarters, tightens are loosened.
原來是馬克。我先從商業角度談談,然後馬丁會深入探討。資金成本最終取決於債券殖利率。從歷史上看,情況就是這樣,它在 BBB 企業分佈範圍內發生了變化。話雖如此,在個別管道、個別時期和個別季度,管控措施會有所放鬆。
We run a business that is competitive in the marketplace with the highest-quality companies and liability side spread in mainstream markets are market-determined. Most of the new entrants who are paying significant premiums for their cost -- in their cost of funds, and you can see this in any industry publication, are in the broker channel. And so it will not surprise you that as a percentage of our business, we do less in the broker channel.
我們經營的業務在市場上具有競爭力,與最優質的公司合作,主流市場的責任側風險敞口由市場決定。大多數新進業者都支付了高額的溢價來支付他們的資金成本(這一點在任何行業出版物中都能看到),他們都是經紀管道的成員。因此,我們透過經紀管道實現的業務佔比較低,這一點您也不會感到驚訝。
At the end of the day, the ability to have a low OpEx and higher-than-average asset spread allow us to win a fair share of business that we want to win, and we want to win it in a mix. We want some long-dated business, some short-dated business, some policyholder dependent business, behavior dependent business, some nonpolicy-holder dependent business. And ultimately, as I suggested, this iteration of the business of the retirement is a fascinating business.
歸根結底,低營運成本和高於平均水平的資產溢價使我們能夠贏得我們想要贏得的相當一部分業務,而且我們希望以多元化的方式贏得這些業務。我們需要一些長期業務,一些短期業務,一些依賴保單持有人的業務,一些依賴行為的業務,一些不依賴保單持有人的業務。最後,正如我所建議的,這種形式的退休業務非常有趣。
Retirement products are in amazing demand. Having said that, the next leg of this business is not the product set that exists today. It is creating the product set that serves the needs of retirees that is simpler, easier to deliver and that relies more heavily on the things we do well, OpEx and the origination of spread. Building out unique or less traffic liability channels is something that we're focused on that will be important not just over the next five years, but for the five years after that.
退休產品需求量驚人。話雖如此,這項業務的下一個階段並非目前已有的產品組合。它正在打造一套更簡單、更容易交付,並且更依賴我們擅長的營運支出和價差創造,以滿足退休人員需求的產品組合。我們正在專注於建立獨特或流量責任較小的管道,這不僅在未來五年內很重要,而且在接下來的五年內也很重要。
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
Martin Kelly - Chief Financial Officer
On the spread question, Brennan, we operate the business on a net spread basis. So the cost of where we write liabilities and the associated cost of funds is connected to where we can invest against that. And we create a net spread, which after costs and on a return on an equity basis gets to a mid-teens return.
關於價差問題,布倫南,我們以淨價差為基礎開展業務。因此,我們設立負債的成本以及相關的資金成本,都與我們能夠投資於哪些領域來抵銷這些負債的成本息息相關。我們由此產生了一個淨利差,扣除成本後,以權益報酬率計算,收益率可達十幾個百分點。
So in terms of guidance, we were quite specific at the November Day on where we expect the spread to come out, assuming alts are at 11%, and that was 120 basis points to 125 basis points. That's what we printed for Q4, at 124 basis points. And given the comments that we've made about ARI earlier on the call, I would assume that the same holds through for the year. So in the 120 to 125 ZIP code on a reported net spread basis and where we write the business and we invest against it.
因此,在指引方面,我們在 11 月的會議上非常具體地說明了,假設其他資產收益率為 11%,我們預計價差將達到 120 個基點到 125 個基點。這就是我們第四季公佈的數據,124個基點。鑑於我們之前在電話會議上對 ARI 發表的評論,我認為今年的情況也是如此。因此,在 120 到 125 郵遞區號區域內,按報告的淨價差計算,我們進行業務交易並進行對沖投資。
Operator
Operator
Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.
Brian Bedell,德意志銀行。
Brian Bedell - Analyst
Brian Bedell - Analyst
Great. Maybe just shifting to the 401(k) market, Marc, if you could just talk about what kind of progress you're seeing in the DOL and for plan sponsors in terms of their appetite to adopt alternative products. And then if you can add in your strategy with collaboration with different managers. You had the Schroders announcement this morning, obviously, Lord, Abbett and State Street as well. Should we expect more of the types of announcements?
偉大的。馬克,或許我們可以談談 401(k) 市場,你能談談你在美國勞工部和計劃發起人方面看到的進展情況,以及他們對採用替代產品的意願嗎?然後,如果你還能將你的策略與不同經理的合作結合起來就更好了。今天早上,施羅德集團、洛德集團、阿貝特集團和道富銀行都發布了公告。我們是否應該期待更多此類公告?
Or do you view yourself as sort of an open architecture collaborator, if you will? Or do you feel like you've got the partners you need for the future game plan here?
或者,您是否將自己視為某種開放式架構的合作者?或者,你覺得你已經找到未來發展計畫所需的合作夥伴了嗎?
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Marc Rowan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So let me work backwards in this. We are open architecture, and we are a product supplier to numerous traditional asset managers, particularly through our ACS business. That is one level of collaboration with traditional asset managers. The next level of collaboration is the creation of a partnership and the serving of joint -- creation of joint product. I think you're starting to see that, and in a couple of partners, you've mentioned it. I think we're going to continue to see that blossom.
那麼,讓我倒推一下。我們採用開放式架構,並透過我們的 ACS 業務,為許多傳統資產管理公司提供產品。這是與傳統資產管理公司合作的一個層次。下一階段的合作是建立夥伴關係,並提供聯合服務-創造聯合產品。我想你已經開始意識到這一點了,而且你也曾向幾位合夥人提到過這一點。我認為我們將繼續看到這種繁榮發展。
Having said that, we're all learning right now. And what has to happen in the business is we, as an industry, we need to adapt our business to the way traditional asset managers work. Moving your business to daily NAV is a big deal for our industry. We are in the process of moving, as I suggested on our last call, particularly our high-grade credit business, to daily NAV. That is an unlock, providing liquidity in markets, which many in our industry have spoken against, is an unlock for traditional asset managers.
話雖如此,我們現在都在學習。而在這個產業裡,我們必須做出改變,調整我們的業務模式,以適應傳統資產管理公司的工作方式。將您的業務遷移到每日 NAV 對我們這個行業來說是一件大事。正如我在上次電話會議中建議的那樣,我們正在逐步將業務,特別是我們的高等級信貸業務,轉向每日淨值。這是一種釋放,為市場提供流動性,而我們行業中許多人一直反對這種做法,這對傳統資產管理公司來說卻是一種釋放。
And so I expect, and I've said this previously, I think traditional asset managers done well could be the single largest opportunity, and I expect them to be among the largest buyers. Some of that will be in the existing mutual fund complexes and ETF complexes. Some of that will be through new products. And some of that will be through 401(k).
因此,我預計(我之前也說過),傳統資產管理公司如果表現出色,可能會帶來最大的機遇,而且我預計他們將成為最大的買家之一。其中一些將納入現有的共同基金和ETF體系。部分成長將透過新產品實現。其中一部分將透過 401(k) 計劃實現。
On the 401(k) specifically, the big volumes in 401(k), in my opinion, are not going to come until there is a rule making or at least guidance that will give more clarity to the executive order that has come down. Having said that, Jim and I are the recipients of numerous call reports.
具體到 401(k) 計劃,我認為,只有在製定規則或至少出台指導意見,使已頒布的行政命令更加清晰之後,401(k) 計劃才會出現大額交易。話雖如此,我和吉姆還是收到了大量的通話報告。
If I had to give you my e-mail inbox, the amount of activity taking place in DC in all its quadrants is just off the charts. Every conference, every industry get-together is literally just overwhelmed with the discussion of private assets, and for very good reasons.
如果讓我給你看我的電子郵件收件箱,你會發現華盛頓特區各個區域的活動量簡直超乎想像。每一次會議、每一次產業聚會都充斥著私募資產的討論,這並非沒有道理。
The addition of private assets to a portfolio, given the length of time these employees will be in these plans, are 50% to 100% better outcomes.
考慮到這些員工參與這些計劃的時間長度,在投資組合中加入私人資產可帶來 50% 到 100% 的更好結果。
And the other interesting piece of this is, and not so much focused on in the executive order, is the opening of 401(k) to guaranteed income, particularly guaranteed lifetime income. We moved as a world for something that was really good for employees. We've moved from defined benefit. Employees loved it, guaranteed lifetime income. Companies hated it.
而另一個有趣的事情是,行政命令並沒有過多著墨於此,那就是將 401(k) 計畫開放給有保障的收入,特別是有保障的終身收入。我們作為一個整體,為了真正對員工有益的事情而採取行動。我們已經從固定收益制轉向其他制度了。員工很喜歡,因為有保障的終身收入。企業對此深惡痛絕。
We then moved to a world of defined contribution, where all of the risk was essentially on the employee and not on the company. It's been great for companies, but not so good for employees. Most employees have not made a proactive investment decision within their 401(k) ever. They are guided by the alternatives provided by the trustees of that plan.
然後我們進入了繳費確定型退休金制度的世界,所有風險基本上都由員工承擔,而不是由公司承擔。這對公司來說是好事,但對員工來說卻不太好。大多數員工從未在 401(k) 帳戶中做出主動投資決策。他們遵循該計劃的受託人所提供的方案。
I believe the world we're heading to is a more of a hybrid world, to use a term that we use a lot around here, where we will end up with something that looks more closely to defined benefit, but will not be provided by the employers. It will be provided by the marketplace. Right now, we're in the baby step space where every day we're making progress. It will be north of $1 billion this year. It might have even been, I don't have the number in front of me, north of $1 billion last year. But I can see it taking shape.
我認為,我們即將走向的世界將是一個更混合的世界(用我們這裡經常使用的術語來說),最終我們會得到一個更接近固定收益的福利制度,但這種福利將不再由雇主提供。它將由市場提供。目前,我們正處於起步階段,每天都在進步。今年將超過10億美元。去年甚至可能超過了 10 億美元,我手邊沒有具體數字。但我能看到它正在成形。
And just like the comments around traditional asset managers, these people need to be not just daily NAV, they need to be daily liquid. The ability to do this, the ability to create the structures, the ability for our indices, not just for us, to adapt our product set to serve these markets, in addition to the rule making or guidance, is going to be what unlocks this opportunity.
就像人們對傳統資產管理公司的評論一樣,這些人不僅需要每日淨值,還需要每日流動性。能夠做到這一點,能夠創建相應的結構,能夠讓我們的指數(不僅僅是我們自己)調整產品組合以服務於這些市場,再加上製定規則或提供指導,這將是開啟這一機遇的關鍵。
But you can hear from what we're doing and from the comments around margin, we've gone from a business with one market to six markets. The problem is where the opportunity is, five of those markets require different product set, different delivery mechanisms and different surroundings in terms of daily NAV and liquidity. And how fast our industry and our firm pivots to that is going to be how fast we're able to grow, along with Jim's comments around origination at scale, but with quality.
但從我們正在做的事情以及圍繞利潤率的評論中可以看出,我們已經從一個市場發展到六個市場。問題在於機會在哪裡,這五個市場需要不同的產品組合、不同的交付機制以及不同的每日淨值和流動性環境。我們的產業和公司向這一方向轉型的速度,將決定我們能夠發展的速度,正如吉姆所說,要大規模地開展高品質的業務。
At the end of the day, the thing that is not changing here, we come at this business with a principal's mindset. Whether you are an institutional client, a retail client, a 401(k) client, an insurance company client, you are side-by-side with us. We're eating our own cooking. It keeps us really focused on the quality of what we do. There is no amount of fee that we can make from an asset that will overcome a bad principal decision.
歸根結底,唯一不變的是,我們始終以校長的心態來經營這項業務。無論您是機構客戶、零售客戶、401(k) 客戶或保險公司客戶,我們都將與您並肩同行。我們吃的是自己做的飯。它讓我們始終專注於工作品質。無論我們從資產中獲得多少收益,都無法彌補糟糕的本金決策。
We reinforce that every day. It's why we're going to be on offense in software. It's why we have the opportunity set we have today. I couldn't be more enthusiastic.
我們每天都在強調這一點。這就是為什麼我們要在軟體領域採取進攻策略的原因。正因如此,我們今天才擁有了這些機會。我感到無比興奮。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That brings us to the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Gunn for closing comments.
謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我謹將發言權交還給岡恩先生,請他作總結發言。
Noah Gunn - Managing Director, Global Head of Investor Relations
Noah Gunn - Managing Director, Global Head of Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning and for all your time, your spending with us. If you have any follow-up questions, as usual, please feel free to reach out on anything we discussed. Thank you very much.
偉大的。感謝各位今天早上的到來,感謝你們抽出寶貴時間陪伴我們。如果您還有任何後續問題,請隨時就我們討論的任何內容與我們聯繫。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines and log off the webcast at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.
女士們、先生們,今天的活動到此結束。現在您可以斷開連線並退出網路直播,享受一天剩餘的時間。