Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Apollo Global Management's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加阿波羅全球管理公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

This conference call is being recorded. This call may contain or this call may include forward-looking statements and projections, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to Apollo's most recent SEC filings for risk factors related to these statements.

本次電話會議正在錄音中。本次電話會議可能包含或本次電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述和預測，這些陳述和預測不保證未來的事件或績效。請參閱 Apollo 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解與這些聲明相關的風險因素。

Apollo will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business. These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in Apollo's earnings presentation, which is available on the company's website. Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Apollo fund.

阿波羅將在這次電話會議上討論某些非公認會計原則措施，管理層認為這些措施與評估業務的財務表現有關。這些非 GAAP 指標與 Apollo 收益報告中的 GAAP 數據一致，可在公司網站上查看。另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成任何阿波羅基金權益的出售要約或購買要約邀請。

I will now turn the call over to Noah Gunn, Global Head of Investor Relations.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係全球主管諾亞·岡恩 (Noah Gunn)。

Thanks, operator, and welcome again, everyone, to our call. Earlier this morning, we published our earnings release and financial supplement on the Investor Relations portion of our website.

謝謝接線員，再次歡迎大家撥打我們的電話。今天早些時候，我們在網站的投資者關係部分發布了收益報告和財務補充報告。

We reported strong third-quarter financial results that included record fee-related earnings of $531 million or $0.87 per share, near-record spread-related earnings of $856 million or $1.40 per share and adjusted net income of $1.1 billion or $1.85 per share, which reached the second highest level on record.

我們公佈了強勁的第三季財務業績，其中包括創紀錄的費用相關收益5.31 億美元（即每股0.87 美元）、接近創紀錄的利差相關收益8.56 億美元（即每股1.40 美元）以及調整後淨利11 億美元（即每股1.85 美元）。

Additionally, I'd like to take a moment to thank you all for participating in our Investor Day last month. We were thrilled to have fantastic attendance, with over 3,000 people participating live in addition to another 54,000 who have accessed the replay since then.

此外，我想花點時間感謝大家參加上個月的投資者日。我們很高興能有如此出色的出席人數，除了自那時以來觀看重播的另外 54,000 人之外，還有超過 3,000 人現場參與。

Given our proximity to this comprehensive event, today's call will be a shorter update. I'm joined this morning by Marc Rowan, CEO; Jim Zelter, Co-President; and Martin Kelly, CFO. Marc and Martin will cover prepared remarks, and Jim will be available for Q&A.

鑑於我們距離這項綜合性活動越來越近，今天的電話會議將更新較短的內容。今天早上，執行長 Marc Rowan 也加入了我的行列。吉姆‧澤爾特，聯合總裁；和首席財務官馬丁凱利。馬克和馬丁將報道準備好的發言，吉姆將參與問答。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Marc.

接下來，我會將電話轉交給馬克。

Thank you, Noah, and good morning. I want to echo Noah's sentiment that we take nothing for granted, and we deeply appreciate your willingness to spend three to four hours with us on Investor Day to truly dig into the unique business that we are building. Hopefully, we outlined a clear vision for our five-year plan as well as the upside drivers.

謝謝你，諾亞，早安。我想呼應諾亞的觀點，即我們不認為任何事情是理所當然的，我們非常感謝您願意在投資者日與我們一起度過三到四個小時，真正深入了解我們正在建立的獨特業務。希望我們為五年計劃以及上行驅動因素制定了清晰的願景。

In summary, for those who did not suffer through the three to four hours, we talked about average annual FRE growth of 20%, average annual SRE growth of 10%. FRE and SRE reaching $10 billion, $5 billion each in 2029 and ANI more than doubling to $15 a share by 2029. Capital generation of $21 billion. In short, we laid out ambitious targets, but they're targets the management team and I are fully behind and believe we can meet.

總而言之，對於那些沒有經歷三到四個小時的人來說，我們談論了年均 FRE 成長 20%，年均 SRE 成長 10%。FRE 和 SRE 到 2029 年將達到 100 億美元，各 50 億美元，ANI 到 2029 年將增加一倍多，達到每股 15 美元。資本產生 210 億美元。簡而言之，我們制定了雄心勃勃的目標，但管理團隊和我完全支持這些目標，並相信我們能夠實現。

This quarter was a solid start in that direction. In short, everything worked. The team made all of us look good. We will open the frozen yogurt bar today to reward the team for that. It's one of the tools we joked about on Investor Day, but it's part of the culture of Apollo.

本季是朝這個方向邁出的堅實一步。簡而言之，一切順利。這個團隊讓我們所有人看起來都很好。今天我們將開設冷凍優格吧來獎勵團隊。這是我們在投資者日開玩笑的工具之一，但它是阿波羅文化的一部分。

Let me spend a second as to how the long-term business plan in the quarter relate to each other. In terms of our five-year plan, we laid out four mega trends or tailwinds we thought were going to drive ourselves on our industry forward over the next five years. The so-called global industrial renaissance and this massive need for capital to rebuild infrastructure, energy transition and next-gen power and data.

讓我花一點時間來談談本季的長期業務計劃之間的相互關係。就我們的五年計劃而言，我們列出了四大趨勢或順風車，我們認為這些趨勢或順風車將在未來五年內推動我們的行業向前發展。所謂的全球工業復興以及重建基礎設施、能源轉型以及下一代電力和數據對資本的巨大需求。

The second, retirement. The third is the growth of individuals, commenting institutions who have long been the sole source of capital for private assets. And finally, the notion of public and private convergence.

第二，退休。三是個人的成長，評論機構長期以來一直是私人資產的唯一資金來源。最後是公共和私人融合的概念。

In short, any of these four TAMs could double our business over the next five years. It is up to us to execute against this opportunity set and to position the franchise squarely in front of these very strong tailwinds. We are fortunate in many ways that given our size and scale in the scheme of the asset management industry, we are a relatively small player. And while we project that we will double our business over the next five years, that is not all that large, particularly compared to the enormous TAMs in front of us.

簡而言之，這四個 TAM 中的任何一個都可以在未來五年內使我們的業務翻倍。我們有責任抓住這一機遇，並將特許經營權定位在這些非常強勁的順風之前。我們在很多方面都很幸運，考慮到我們在資產管理行業的規模和規模，我們是一個相對較小的參與者。雖然我們預計未來五年我們的業務將翻一番，但這並不算大，特別是與我們面前的龐大 TAM 相比。

Bringing it down to the quarter in terms of global industrial renaissance and the massive need for capital, this was a record origination quarter, $62 billion of originations for the quarter, $194 billion year-to-date.

就全球工業復興和對資本的巨大需求而言，本季的創始季度創紀錄，本季的創始金額為 620 億美元，年初至今為 1,940 億美元。

Platforms, really strong quarter. ATLAS, in particular, had a really strong quarter, $50 billion of cumulative origination to date, $5 billion of equity capital raised, a new $5 billion facility from BNP, 350 person strong. In short, the cylinders are all firing at ATLAS, and we expect great things from them going forward.

平台，季度表現確實強勁。尤其是 ATLAS，該公司的季度表現非常強勁，迄今已累計發起 500 億美元，籌集了 50 億美元的股本，法國巴黎銀行 (BNP) 提供了 50 億美元的新貸款，共有 350 名員工。簡而言之，ATLAS 正全力以赴，我們期待它們在未來取得更大的成就。

In retirement, Athene had another $20 billion organic growth quarter. We continue to widen the funnel through distribution expansion. Just launched with BAML last week, another top 15 platform. Away from Athene, we continue to make inroads into the retirement space, in particular, in the D.C. market.

退休後，Athene 又實現了 200 億美元的有機成長。我們繼續透過分銷擴張來拓寬通路。上週剛與另一個排名前 15 的平台 BAML 一起推出。遠離 Athene，我們繼續進軍退休領域，特別是在華盛頓市場。

We have our first mandate for our AAA product on an RIA platform. We are in the equity sleeve of a CIT offering, and we launched in October. While technical, this is an enormous milestone for us and I believe portends well for the future in front of us in adding private assets to help bulk and accelerate retirement solutions for those in need.

我們在 RIA 平台上獲得了 AAA 產品的第一個授權。我們是 CIT 產品的股權套，我們於 10 月推出。雖然是技術性的，但這對我們來說是一個巨大的里程碑，我相信這預示著我們未來將增加私人資產，以幫助為有需要的人提供大量和加速的退休解決方案。

In terms of individual investors and progress against retail, fundraising is on pace to increase 50% year-over-year in '24 without a flagship fund. The team here has done an extraordinary job. ABC, our asset-based company, is now distributing on two large wirehouse platforms. ASPM, our Evergreen multi-asset secondary strategy, launched globally. We now have, post these 2, 11 wealth products focused on the market, 6 of which have been in the market for a year or less.

就個人投資者和零售進度而言，在沒有旗艦基金的情況下，24 年籌資額預計將年增 50%。這裡的團隊做得非常出色。ABC 是我們的資產型公司，目前在兩個大型有線平台上發行。我們的 Evergreen 多資產二級策略 ASPM 在全球推出。繼這2個之後，我們現在已經有11個理財產品集中在市場上，其中6個已經上市一年或更短時間。

But I want to really call out here what the potential of what this can be. Recall that our strategy here is to be seen as an innovator in this marketplace. So AAA, which we talked about 1.5 years ago, we've now crossed $18.5 billion and we expect to be circa $20 billion by year-end. Strong returns here, now approximately 10.5%, with a fraction of the volatility of public equity markets and public debt markets. This is the kind of product that has multiple uses across portfolios.

但我想在這裡真正指出它的潛力。回想一下，我們的策略是被視為這個市場的創新者。因此，我們 1.5 年前討論過的 AAA 現在已經突破了 185 億美元，預計到年底將達到約 200 億美元。這裡的回報率很高，目前約為 10.5%，波動性僅為公共股票市場和公共債務市場的一小部分。這是一種在產品組合中具有多種用途的產品。

And I stick by what I said when we launched the product, I expect this to be the largest fund at Apollo within a very short period of time. And I think next year will be when that happens.

我堅持我們在推出該產品時所說的，我預計這將在很短的時間內成為阿波羅最大的基金。我認為明年就會發生這種情況。

ADS, also really strong performance. Durable yield, taking advantage of trends in private credit, but done it in Apollo-esque way, lowest leverage, all clean. We expect the strategy to be circa $15 billion at year-end. I cite the size of this because I think it's important to show just how fast this channel is developing.

ADS，表現也確實強勁。持久的收益率，利用私人信貸的趨勢，但以阿波羅式的方式做到了，槓桿率最低，一切都是乾淨的。我們預計該戰略到年底的規模約為 150 億美元。我引用這個管道的規模是因為我認為展示這個管道的發展速度非常重要。

And the channel development is about product, it is about performance, but it's also about the capability to serve this large and growing market and the capability to continue to innovate. We learn something almost every day in this marketplace. To cite just one example. We talked a year ago about an insurance rep product to take advantage of the unique tax situation of individual investors.

通路開發不僅關乎產品，關乎績效，也關乎服務這個龐大且不斷成長的市場的能力以及持續創新的能力。我們幾乎每天都在這個市場上學到一些東西。僅舉一例。一年前，我們討論了一種保險代表產品，以利用個人投資者獨特的稅務狀況。

Our Altitude series, which encompasses our insurance rep product, we expect $1 billion at year-end and now active in two significant wirehouses. Those three trends, global industrial renaissance, retirement and growth in the retail channel are three of the four cylinders that we explore. Three of the four tailwinds that we expect to power our business going forward.

我們的 Altitude 系列包含我們的保險代表產品，我們預計年底將達到 10 億美元，目前活躍於兩個重要的電線公司。全球工業復興、零售通路的退休和成長這三種趨勢是我們探索的四個圓柱體中的三個。我們預計將推動我們的業務向前發展的四個有利因素中的三個。

The fourth is this whole notion of public and private convergence. We see this as fixed income placement. What we're watching take place is investors who have historically allocated to private markets solely out of their alternative bucket, are beginning to allocate out of their fixed income bucket, historically has been 100% public investment grade.

第四個是公共和私人融合的整個概念。我們將其視為固定收益安置。我們所看到的情況是，那些歷史上僅從他們的另類投資類別中配置到私人市場的投資者，現在開始從他們的固定收益類別中進行配置，歷史上一直是100%的公共投資級別。

We expect that over time, investors will begin to divide this bucket between beta, public investment grade; and alpha, private investment grade, and they will consume that in a number of different formats. Some will consume directly as pure private assets.

我們預計，隨著時間的推移，投資者將開始將這一類別分為貝塔級、公共投資級和公共投資級。阿爾法（私人投資等級），他們將以多種不同的形式消費它。有些將直接作為純粹的私人資產消費。

Some will consume it in fund format, and yet others will consume it in products that are more familiar to them from more familiar names, such as the partnerships and the relationships we've announced with Lord Abbott and with State Street. More on that product when it is approved because it is currently in registration.

有些人會以基金的形式使用它，而另一些人則會以他們更熟悉的產品的形式使用它，這些產品來自更熟悉的名字，例如我們與雅培勳爵和道富銀行宣布的合作夥伴關係和關係。有關該產品獲得批准後的更多信息，因為該產品目前正在註冊中。

Those four tailwinds, I believe, will push our business forward and they will push our industry forward. But all of them ultimately depend on one factor, they depend on our capacity to originate assets that offer excess return per unit of risk, or alpha.

我相信，這四個有利因素將推動我們的業務向前發展，也將推動我們的產業向前發展。但所有這些最終都取決於一個因素，即我們創造每單位風險（即阿爾法）提供超額回報的資產的能力。

We are not solely an asset manager. If we behave like an asset manager and simply gather funds, we will simply degrade our business and degrade our franchise. That is not our intention and that is not what we're going to do.

我們不僅僅是資產管理公司。如果我們像資產管理者一樣，只是簡單地收集資金，那麼我們只會降低我們的業務並降低我們的特許經營權。這不是我們的意圖，也不是我們要做的事。

Our capacity to grow is limited, as I've said previously, by our ability to originate, and we are keenly focused on how we go about doing this. We have a number of platforms, some 16, which we've spent roughly $8 billion building over the past 15 years that now employs circa 4,000 people. This is a very significant investment and a bar that many of our competitors will need to cross to compete with us in this area.

正如我之前所說，我們的成長能力受到我們的創新能力的限制，我們非常關注如何做到這一點。我們擁有許多平台，大約有 16 個，在過去 15 年裡我們花費了大約 80 億美元來建造這些平台，目前擁有約 4,000 名員工。這是一項非常重大的投資，也是我們許多競爭對手在這領域與我們競爭所需跨越的障礙。

Some will do that, and we expect them to do that. But make no mistake, this market is enormous, but one has to originate good risk to be able to grow their business and offer their clients excess return per unit of risk.

有些人會這樣做，我們希望他們這樣做。但毫無疑問，這個市場是巨大的，但人們必須產生良好的風險才能發展業務並為客戶提供每單位風險的超額回報。

In the 3.5 hours that we talked during our Investor Day, I wish we could have covered everything, but we failed to. One area I really want to drive home and to our recent promotion is our third-party insurance. We have built, for Athene, the capacity to originate good assets and have proven over the past 15 years that we can scale our retirement services business.

在投資者日期間我們交談的 3.5 小時中，我希望我們能夠涵蓋所有內容，但我們未能做到。我真正想開車回家的一個領域是我們最近的促銷活動是我們的第三方保險。我們為 Athene 建立了創造優質資產的能力，並在過去 15 年中證明我們可以擴大我們的退休服務業務。

Recall that as an originator of assets, we want 25% of everything and 100% of nothing. In some ways, the ideal partners for us are other insurers, people who are trying to amortize the same sorts of liabilities that we're seeking to amortize and deal with the same capital and regulatory regimes.

回想一下，身為資產的發起者，我們想要 25% 的一切，而 100% 什麼都不想要。在某些方面，我們理想的合作夥伴是其他保險公司，他們試圖攤提與我們尋求攤銷的同類負債，並處理相同的資本和監管制度。

Our third-party insurance business is approximately $100 billion of AUM as of this date, and we expect it to double over the next five years. But it will not double on its own. And so we've taken one of our most senior partners, Jeff Jacobs, and asked Jeff to become the CEO of our third-party insurance business with all of the resources of the firm at his disposal.

截至目前，我們的第三方保險業務的資產管理規模約為 1,000 億美元，我們預計這一數字在未來五年內將翻倍。但它本身不會加倍。因此，我們聘請了我們最資深的合夥人之一傑夫·雅各布斯 (Jeff Jacobs)，並要求傑夫擔任我們第三方保險業務的首席執行官，並擁有公司的所有資源。

This is important to us not just in the capacity to add AUM, but also to support an industry and to support retirement, and to make sure that there's a broad understanding of the regulatory and capital regimes associated with private assets, particularly private investment grade, and an area that will receive lots of attention from us.

這對我們來說很重要，不僅可以增加資產管理規模，還可以支持一個行業和支持退休，並確保對與私人資產（特別是私人投資級別）相關的監管和資本製度有廣泛的了解，以及一個將受到我們廣泛關注的領域。

In short, we're playing to win. Lots of the terms we've used across the industry, this notion of origination, fixed income replacement and an industrial renaissance, now seem to be mainstream. We believe we are building something unique in the context of our industry and we believe we are uniquely positioned for this opportunity, with the capacity to originate the right cost and form of capital and the right culture to succeed. In short, we get to do this.

簡而言之，我們是為了勝利而戰。我們在整個行業中使用的許多術語，例如起源、固定收益替代和工業復興的概念，現在似乎已成為主流。我們相信，我們正在行業背景下打造獨特的產品，我們相信我們處於獨特的位置，能夠抓住這個機會，有能力創造正確的資本成本和形式以及正確的文化來取得成功。簡而言之，我們要做到這一點。

With that, I'll turn it over to Martin.

有了這個，我會把它交給馬丁。

Thanks, Marc, and good morning, everyone. So third-quarter financial results across FRE, SRE and PII exceeded expectations and position us well to close out 2024, consistent with our expectations and to move confidently into the first year of our latest five-year plan. I'll make some very brief comments on this quarter's results before opening up to Q&A.

謝謝，馬克，大家早安。因此，FRE、SRE 和 PII 的第三季財務業績超出了預期，使我們能夠很好地結束 2024 年，與我們的預期一致，並充滿信心地進入我們最新五年計劃的第一年。在開始問答之前，我將對本季的業績發表一些非常簡短的評論。

Fee-related earnings. Within Asset Management, FRE reached a new quarterly record and surpassed $1.5 billion on a year-to-date basis, supporting our strength in fee-related revenues from our credit business. Credit management fees increased 20% year over year, with growth in third-party credit emission fees exceeding that of Athene and Athora.

與費用相關的收入。在資產管理領域，FRE 創下了新的季度記錄，年初至今超過 15 億美元，支撐了我們信貸業務收費相關收入的實力。信用管理費年增20%，第三方信用排放費增幅超過Athene和Athora。

Over the last 12 months, we've generated more than $140 billion of inflows to support continued management fee growth. In the third quarter, credit inflows totaled $39 billion, inclusive of the robust flows of Athene, that Marc mentioned, as well as broad-based fundraising activity across direct lending, opportunistic and multicredit, and further, inflows related to financing our Atlas business.

在過去 12 個月中，我們創造了超過 1,400 億美元的資金流入，以支持管理費的持續成長。第三季度，信貸流入總額為 390 億美元，其中包括 Marc 提到的 Athene 的強勁流入，以及直接貸款、機會主義和多重信貸等廣泛的籌款活動，以及與我們的 Atlas 業務融資相關的流入。

Our Capital Solutions business posted its second highest quarter of fees on record, supported by approximately 80 underlying transactions. Fee-related performance fees were also strong, increasing more than 40% year over year. This fee stream has primarily driven by stable spread-based income from certain credit products and vehicles, including ADS.

我們的資本解決方案業務公佈了有史以來第二高的季度費用，這得益於大約 80 筆基礎交易。與費用相關的績效費用也很強勁，較去年同期成長超過 40%。這種費用流主要是由某些信貸產品和工具（包括ADS）帶來的穩定的基於利差的收入所推動的。

Going into the fourth quarter, we expect these revenue growth trends to largely persist, supported by our previously discussed organic capital formation target of $120 million for full year 2024, and a strong, diversified origination pipeline.

進入第四季度，我們預計這些營收成長趨勢將在很大程度上持續下去，這得益於我們先前討論的 2024 年全年 1.2 億美元的有機資本形成目標，以及強大、多元化的融資管道。

At the same time, we've remained focused on cost discipline, with total expenses increasing 11% year-to-date versus the prior nine-month period, excluding the impact of $15 million of promotion costs in the second quarter that we previously commented on.

同時，我們仍然關注成本控制，今年迄今的總支出比前九個月增加了 11%，不包括我們之前評論過的第二季度 1500 萬美元促銷成本的影響在。

Turning to retirement services. SRE results reflect robust organic growth trends of $20 billion in the quarter and solid levels of spread profitability. Net spread, excluding notable items, increased by 16 basis points quarter-over-quarter, and was roughly flat with Q2 when adjusting for our long-term expectations of an 11% alternatives return. As part of this, Athene's alternatives portfolio generated an [8.2%] annualized return in the third quarter, within which AAA generated a 10.5% annualized return, approaching the 11% long-term expectation.

轉向退休服務。SRE 業績反映了本季 200 億美元的強勁有機成長趨勢以及穩定的利差獲利水準。淨利差（不包括重要項目）環比增長 16 個基點，在調整我們對替代品回報 11% 的長期預期後，與第二季度大致持平。作為其中的一部分，Athene 的另類投資組合在第三季度產生了 [8.2%] 的年化回報率，其中 AAA 產生了 10.5% 的年化回報率，接近 11% 的長期預期。

We took several actions with respect to Athene's alternatives portfolio within Q3 to align the allocation mostly with AAA, which now accounts for approximately 80% of the portfolio at quarter end. Starting in January and going forward, we intend to pre-release return information around the first business day following quarter end in an effort to provide more near-term visibility into this line item.

我們在第三季對 Athene 的另類投資組合採取了多項行動，以將配置主要與 AAA 保持一致，目前 AAA 在季度末約佔投資組合的 80%。從一月份開始，我們打算在季度末後的第一個工作日左右預先發布退貨信息，以便為該訂單項提供更多的近期可見性。

Turning to the year-to-date view. SRE totaled $2.4 billion, up 5% versus the prior year comparable period when excluding notable items. As we discussed in detail at Investor Day, we expect SRE to approximate [$3.2 billion] for the full year, which implies a similar level of SRE in the fourth quarter versus third quarter results on an as-reported basis.

轉向今年迄今的觀點。剔除重要項目後，SRE 總額為 24 億美元，較上年同期成長 5%。正如我們在投資者日詳細討論的那樣，我們預計全年 SRE 約為 [32 億美元]，這意味著第四季度的 SRE 水平與第三季度報告的結果相似。

Principal investing income benefited from some monetizations by Fund IX during the quarter. Our net accrued performance fee balance at September 30 was $1.4 billion and continues to be supported by strong investment performance. We generated double-digit returns across a variety of credit strategies and hybrid value over the last 12 months, as well as more than 30% for PE Fund X over the same period.

本季本金投資收入受惠於 IX 基金的部分貨幣化。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的應計績效費淨額餘額為 14 億美元，並持續受到強勁投資績效的支持。過去 12 個月，我們透過各種信貸策略和混合價值創造了兩位數的回報，同期 PE 基金 X 的回報也超過 30%。

While we expect near-term realizations activity to be more in line with recent quarterly trends based on our current pipeline, we're optimistic that PII will increase meaningfully over the next couple of years as the exit environment improves.

雖然我們預計近期變現活動將更符合基於我們當前管道的最近季度趨勢，但我們樂觀地認為，隨著退出環境的改善，PII 將在未來幾年內大幅增長。

In terms of capital allocation, we deployed more than $400 million within Q3 to opportunistically repurchase more than 4 million shares at an average price of $105, and made heightened volatility during the quarter.

在資本配置方面，我們在第三季部署了超過4億美元，以平均價格105美元的機會回購了超過400萬股股票，並在本季加劇了波動。

And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

然後，我會將電話轉回給接線生進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）Alex Blostein，高盛。

So I was hoping you could start with the progress you guys are making on third-party fundraising, and particularly with respect to the insurance channel, Marc, as you mentioned earlier. A couple of specifics. Maybe you can give us an update on the flows you're seeing there year-to-date. I heard $100 billion in total AUM, but curious on those and the topic fee rates you're seeing in that channel.

所以我希望你們能從你們在第三方籌款方面取得的進展開始，特別是在保險管道方面，馬克，正如你們之前提到的。一些具體細節。也許您可以向我們提供今年迄今為止您在那裡看到的流量的最新資訊。我聽說總資產管理規模為 1000 億美元，但對這些以及您在該頻道中看到的主題費率感到好奇。

Just broadly, when you think about the addressable market there, what sort of change that sort of enables some of these insurance companies partner with you guys as a competitor in some way? And in terms of the liabilities that you're looking for in this channel, is this strictly in the annuity kind of rider channel or sort of broad insurance base?

廣義地說，當你考慮那裡的潛在市場時，什麼樣的變化使得這些保險公司中的一些能夠以某種方式與你們合作作為競爭對手？就您在該管道中尋找的負債而言，這是否嚴格屬於年金類型的附加險管道或某種廣泛的保險基礎？

So I'm going to -- it's Marc, Alex. I'm going to start more generally, and then Jim will pick up specifically. A bunch of the things you've said really don't track with how things have done. We have always started and always run a third-party business. People who you would think would be -- who are our competitors in the liability, we partner with on the asset side regularly.

所以我要－－這是馬克，亞歷克斯。我將從更籠統的角度開始，然後吉姆將具體介紹。你所說的很多事情確實與事情的進展不符。我們一直開始並一直經營第三方業務。你認為的人是我們在負債方面的競爭對手，我們在資產方面定期與他們合作。

Not only do we partner with them in an aligned fashion for the assets themselves, but you know from our public announcements, that a number of people you would consider our direct competitors own pro rata side-by-side pieces of our origination platform.

我們不僅與他們就資產本身進行一致的合作，而且從我們的公開聲明中你知道，許多人你會認為我們的直接競爭對手按比例擁有我們的原創平台的部分。

We intend to continue to do this going forward. Unlike certain very strained markets, for instance, like private equity, the market for private investment grade, I believe, to be fast. This is about having the capital to go after them. And also recall that we -- although we originate a risk, we want some of that risk for the Athene balance sheet.

我們打算繼續這樣做。與某些非常緊張的市場（例如私募股權）不同，我認為私人投資等級市場的發展速度很快。這是關於擁有追捕他們的資本。還要記住，儘管我們產生了風險，但我們希望雅典娜的資產負債表承擔部分風險。

We want some of that risk for our credit funds and the other accounts that we manage on behalf of our third-party clients. At this point in time and for the foreseeable future, having like-minded institutions, particularly insurers who have the same risk reward and the same regulatory and the same capital regimes, is additive to our franchise and it's additive to their franchise.

我們希望我們的信貸基金和我們代表第三方客戶管理的其他帳戶承擔部分風險。目前以及在可預見的未來，擁有志同道合的機構，特別是具有相同風險回報、相同監管和相同資本製度的保險公司，將增強我們的特許經營權，也增強他們的特許經營權。

Competitively, we still take a very, very large share of these assets and no one competitor has anything near it. And we -- but we view this as beneficial to our franchise. And in turn, one of our peer insurance companies originates risk that we think is interesting and they want us to participate with them, we will.

從競爭角度來看，我們仍然在這些資產中佔有非常非常大的份額，沒有任何競爭對手能與之媲美。我們——但我們認為這對我們的特許經營有利。反過來，我們的同行保險公司之一發起了我們認為有趣的風險，他們希望我們與他們一起參與，我們會的。

It's a very different ecosystem than people have historically thought of in the private equity area, where it's a winner-take-all mentality. I sometimes joke in credit that if you originate a risk and own 100% of it, it means you made a mistake, rather than you want something.

這是一個與人們歷史上在私募股權領域所想像的非常不同的生態系統，在私募股權領域，這是一種贏家通吃的心態。我有時在信用方面開玩笑說，如果你發起了風險並承擔了 100% 的風險，那就意味著你犯了一個錯誤，而不是你想要什麼。

The second part before I turn to Jim, is we have two or three different types of insurance accounting. By the way, they're mostly life and annuity, not P&C, just to touch on that. Some of third-party insurance are direct placements with peer insurance companies, either through programmatic investments, one-off investments or in the context of funds or SMAs. A very big part of our business. But increasingly, we actually see people partnering with us, institutions and, in some cases, other financial institutions, side-by-side with us in ADIP.

在我轉向吉姆之前的第二部分是我們有兩種或三種不同類型的保險會計。順便說一句，它們主要是人壽保險和年金保險，而不是財產保險和意外保險。一些第三方保險是透過程序性投資、一次性投資或在基金或 SMA 的背景下直接向同行保險公司進行配售。我們業務的一個非常重要的部分。但我們實際上越來越多地看到人們與我們、機構以及在某些情況下其他金融機構在 ADIP 中與我們並肩合作。

ADIP gives participants not just a share of the assets, but a share of the liabilities, and they get to leverage off the Athene cost structure. Although we didn't talk about it this quarter, when you have a chance to go back, Athene continues to do an unbelievable job on the efficiency operations. I saw some numbers from the quarter. I, quite frankly, was impressed. So with that, I'm going to turn it over to Jim.

ADIP 不僅為參與者提供了資產份額，還為參與者提供了負債份額，並且他們可以利用 Athene 成本結構。儘管我們本季沒有談論這一點，但當你有機會回去時，Athene 繼續在效率運作方面做出了令人難以置信的工作。我看到了本季的一些數字。坦白說，我印象深刻。因此，我將把它交給吉姆。

Yes. Not a lot to add, Alex, but I would say that what Marc has described is this open architecture flywheel. And whether it's in funds, whether it's an ADIP, whether it's sharing views on how CLO should be looked at and calculated from a regulatory perspective, there's a whole variety of activity that takes place. And we have always been a player in this space.

是的。沒有太多要補充的，Alex，但我想說 Marc 所描述的是這個開放式架構飛輪。無論是在基金領域，無論是 ADIP，還是分享關於如何從監管角度看待和計算 CLO 的觀點，都會發生各種各樣的活動。我們一直是這個領域的參與者。

But as Marc mentioned, by putting one of our senior individuals who has really been at the intersection of the Athene portfolio leadership, applying that same insight, sourcing, portfolio, construction across the environment is helpful.

但正如 Marc 所提到的，透過讓我們的一位真正處於 Athene 投資組合領導交叉點的高級人員，在整個環境中應用相同的洞察力、採購、投資組合、構建是有幫助的。

And again, this is mostly investment-grade activity. And the reason why we think it can grow so large is, for the most part, all this activity, if you get into investment grade and fixed income, it's really dispersion of credit risk across the platform system, not just the creation, which is really more the traditional direct origination. So the scale and substance of these activities, we think is -- we're still in the early days.

再說一次，這主要是投資等級活動。我們認為它可以成長如此之大的原因是，在很大程度上，所有這些活動，如果你進入投資等級和固定收益領域，它實際上是整個平台系統中信用風險的分散，而不僅僅是創造，這是確實更傳統的直接起源。因此，我們認為這些活動的規模和實質內容仍處於早期階段。

Craig Siegenthaler, Bank of America.

克雷格·西根塔勒，美國銀行。

My question is on retirement outflows. So after a pickup last quarter, they improved back down to the 10% range annualized, kind of right in line with your target from the Athene presentation from August. But from the same disclosure, they're expected to decline again modestly in 4Q '24, but we actually don't have any visibility into 2025. So I'm wondering if you could share with us how liability outflows are expected to trend in 2025. And for the full, is it generally in line with 2024 with some quarterly deviations?

我的問題是關於退休金流出。因此，在上個季度回升之後，它們又回落至年化 10% 的範圍，這與 8 月 Athene 演示中的目標完全一致。但根據同一份披露，預計它們將在 24 年第四季再次小幅下降，但實際上我們對 2025 年沒有任何預見性。所以我想知道您是否可以與我們分享 2025 年負債流出的趨勢。整體而言，是否與 2024 年基本一致，但存在一些季度偏差？

It's Marc. So during the vast substantial run-up in interest rates, there was a tremendous amount of interest from the research community and from shareholders into the behavior of liabilities. And so we began to publish the statistics that we used actually to run our business. Runoff of insurance liabilities is actually highly predictable.

是馬克。因此，在利率大幅上漲期間，研究界和股東對負債行為產生了極大的興趣。因此，我們開始發布我們實際用於營運業務的統計數據。保險負債的流失其實是高度可預測的。

And one of the things we wanted to do by publishing is to show that we actually have a pretty good sense of when period end business, MYGA business, is going to run off. We have a regular flow of pension, risk transfer business and a regular flow of runoff of fixed income annuities, as well as policy loans and other out-of-period surrenders. I think the easiest thing to do is probably update our '25 forecast.

我們想要透過發布做的一件事是表明，我們實際上非常清楚期末業務（MYGA 業務）何時會耗盡。我們有定期流動的退休金、風險轉移業務和定期流動的固定收益年金徑流，以及保單貸款和其他期外退保。我認為最簡單的事情可能就是更新我們 25 年的預測。

But with Investor Day, we didn't get around to it. I think that's on our to-do list.

但在投資者日，我們沒有抽出時間來討論這個問題。我認為這在我們的待辦事項清單上。

It's high up the list. We plan to. I would say, I'm not aware of anyone else in the industry that publishes this information. And so it's another area where we strive to be transparent. And we track very closely against the metric.

它在名單上名列前茅。我們計劃這樣做。我想說的是，據我所知，業內沒有其他人發布過此資訊。因此，這是我們努力保持透明的另一個領域。我們非常密切地追蹤該指標。

And as Marc said, the the ups and downs from any one quarter to the next tend to be driven by contractual features of policies, and so they're highly predictable. Looking ahead, I wouldn't expect any different trend from what we're saying. It's just tracking exactly as we expected.

正如馬克所說，任何一個季度到下一個季度的起伏往往都是由政策的合約特徵所驅動的，因此它們是高度可預測的。展望未來，我預計不會出現與我們所說的任何不同的趨勢。它的追蹤完全符合我們的預期。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨，TD·考恩。

Marc, I'm intrigued by two of your comments, just your notion of the retirement opportunity as well as the retail. I think I want to ask about retirement, but I'm going to ask about retail. In terms of the retail platform, you mentioned you're learning a lot.

馬克，我對你的兩則評論很感興趣，就是你對退休機會和零售的看法。我想我想問有關退休的問題，但我要問有關零售的問題。在零售平台方面，您提到您學到了很多東西。

So I was wondering if you could maybe help us understand how you see the opportunity set evolving for the industry and Apollo's role in that? And then secondarily, a number of your peers have been sort of speaking to higher expenses to build out the wealth management footprint. Could you share with us where you are in terms of that expense cycle?

所以我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您如何看待該行業的機會集以及阿波羅在其中的作用？其次，你的一些同行一直在談論更高的費用來擴大財富管理足跡。您能否與我們分享您在該費用週期方面的狀況？

So I'm tempted to answer your retail question with the retirement answer, but I'm actually going to go after the retail side of it. So we're in the very early stages. One of the things we tried to do at Investor Day was to present this pyramid of how we think about the retail channel.

所以我很想用退休的答案來回答你的零售問題，但實際上我會專注在零售方面的問題。所以我們正處於非常早期的階段。我們在投資者日試圖做的事情之一就是展示我們如何看待零售通路的金字塔。

At the top of the pyramid, we think about family office. Family office to us is really nothing other than institutional. We cover them like institutions. They behave like institutions. As best we can tell, they are now close to 50% private, which does not mean alternative, but -- in a traditional sense, but 50% private.

在金字塔的頂端，我們考慮的是家族辦公室。家族辦公室對我們來說其實只不過是機構。我們像機構一樣覆蓋它們。他們的行為就像機構一樣。據我們所知，它們現在接近 50% 的私有化，這並不意味著替代，而是——從傳統意義上來說，而是 50% 的私有化。

At the bottom of the pyramid, I call that mass affluent. I hypothesize that we were not likely to serve these people directly, that we were likely to be a parts provider to incumbent asset managers, traditional asset managers, who were going to blend in a number of different formats, private assets into products that are more easily understood by the vast majority of investors who will not, on their own, go through the educational process and perhaps are not closely advised by a financial adviser.

在金字塔的底部，我稱之為大眾富裕階層。我假設我們不太可能直接為這些人服務，我們很可能成為現有資產管理公司、傳統資產管理公司的零件供應商，他們將把許多不同的格式、私人資產融入到更有價值的產品中。

The channel that we -- I think you're referencing is really talking about the advice channel, which let's call that high net worth, which has lots of different definitions. For us, I think that this is a question of appropriate products and services. They generally do not buy products that have binary outcomes. They buy things that are more yield oriented, that tend to pull to par, have more predictable behavior.

我認為您所引用的管道實際上是在談論建議管道，我們稱之為高淨值管道，它有很多不同的定義。對我們來說，我認為這是一個合適的產品和服務的問題。他們通常不會購買具有二元結果的產品。他們購買的東西更加以收益為導向，往往會達到標準，具有更可預測的行為。

Although episodically, they do buy traditional alternative products in fund format, but that is not the vast majority of what we're talking about. If you think about these institutions, serving these institutions is going to be, in my opinion, an opportunity for a handful of firms.

儘管偶爾，他們確實會以基金形式購買傳統的另類產品，但這並不是我們談論的絕大多數。如果你考慮一下這些機構，我認為，為這些機構提供服務對少數公司來說將是一個機會。

The scale that one needs to put together of people, technology, products, systems to serve one of the large wealth channel participants, really only makes sense if you are multiple products at a large scale and are capable of generating alpha. Let's offer it, at the end of the day, we're not just an asset manager, we have to develop excess return.

為大型財富通路參與者之一提供服務所需的人員、技術、產品、系統的規模，只有當你是大規模的多種產品並且能夠產生阿爾法時，才真正有意義。讓我們提供一下，歸根結底，我們不僅僅是一個資產管理公司，我們還必須開發超額收益。

For better or worse, I think we envision the cost of doing this. I don't view the cost as a surprise. They've been contemplated in the context of the budgets and forecast we've given you, so I would not call out anything unique.

無論好壞，我認為我們都會預見到這樣做的成本。我並不認為這個成本令人意外。它們是在我們給您的預算和預測的背景下考慮的，所以我不會指出任何獨特之處。

I think the interesting thing that's happening in this business is when we enter a certain channel we say, oh, we're partnered with so and so. The reality is we're still selling to 5% or 10% of their financial advisers and their clients. We have -- we, all of us, have yet to fully penetrate any of these systems.

我認為這個行業發生的有趣的事情是，當我們進入某個管道時，我們會說，哦，我們與某某合作。現實情況是，我們仍然向他們 5% 或 10% 的財務顧問及其客戶銷售產品。我們，我們所有人，還沒有完全滲透這些系統中的任何一個。

To fully penetrate a system, we have to make our products simpler, we have to be able to serve qualified and non-qualified investors and we have to be able to do it with technological ease. And so we are not so much seeing cost pressure, what we're seeing is request for services. This can be educational services, this can be technological services, this can be ease of doing business services. And perhaps one of the most intriguing, something we've referred to previously, is the addition of regular way low-cost leverage.

為了完全滲透一個系統，我們必須使我們的產品更簡單，我們必須能夠為合格和非合格的投資者提供服務，並且我們必須能夠透過技術輕鬆地做到這一點。因此，我們並沒有看到太多的成本壓力，我們看到的是對服務的需求。這可以是教育服務，這可以是技術服務，這可以是營商便利服務。也許我們之前提到過的最有趣的事情之一是增加常規方式的低成本槓桿。

And with that, I'll turn it to Jim, just if he wants to add to this.

然後，如果吉姆想補充的話，我會把它轉給吉姆。

Yes. And what we're actually talking about is taking a product dialogue and making it much more of a portfolio solutions dialogue. And we're at the head of the pack in terms of the breadth of products that created.

是的。我們實際上討論的是進行產品對話，使其更像是產品組合解決方案對話。就所創造的產品的廣度而言，我們處於領先地位。

As Marc said, the clients don't want -- they don't want binary outcomes, they want a lot more evergreen products. But the latest note that Marc mentioned, whether it's -- certainly in the equity business and the public equities, the ability to buy things on margin, well, certainly, there will be a time in the future where whether it's fund finance or other, or even portfolio solutions in terms of SAA, strategic asset allocation, how a client looks at a variety of these options.

正如馬克所說，客戶不想要——他們不想要二元結果，他們想要更多的常青產品。但馬克提到的最新說明，無論是——當然是在股票業務和公共股票中，還是以保證金購買東西的能力，嗯，當然，未來一段時間，無論是基金融資還是其他，甚至是SAA 方面的投資組合解決方案、策略資產配置、客戶如何看待各種這些選擇。

So it's much more a stick. There will be a few winners. We have planted our flag with resources and commitment and vision to a successful player.

所以它更像是一根棍子。將會有一些贏家。我們用資源、承諾和願景樹立了我們的旗幟，成為一名成功的玩家。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

So I'm actually going to ask a question around the retirement opportunity. At Investor Day, Marc, you did make a compelling case for a rethink of the future state of target date fund allocations around the $15 trillion DC opportunity.

所以我實際上要問一個關於退休機會的問題。在投資者日，馬克，您確實提出了一個令人信服的理由，要求重新思考圍繞 15 兆美元 DC 機會的目標日期基金分配的未來狀態。

As we think about what is tangible on a near-term basis in terms of allocations and how that might evolve, the percentage that's in target date funds, it looks like less than half of DC assets are currently held in target day funds. The majority of those fund assets are held by folks in higher age cohorts.

當我們考慮近期分配方面的具體內容及其可能如何演變、目標日期基金中的百分比時，看起來目前目標日期基金中持有的 DC 資產不到一半。這些基金資產大部分由較高年齡層的人持有。

So I wanted to get your perspective on how you see that opportunity evolving over time? How much of that $15 trillion do you believe you can service on a more near- to medium-term basis once that new market opportunity hopefully opens up to you in your peers?

所以我想了解您如何看待這個機會隨著時間的推移而演變？一旦新的市場機會有望在您的同行中向您敞開，您認為您可以在更近中期的基礎上為這 15 萬億美元中的多少提供服務？

Okay. So I'll start by saying that I did point it out, but it is not something we've budgeted in our plan or to get to our five-year plan. But I think we have to just look around the world for solutions. And I did mention at Investor Day.

好的。因此，我首先要說的是，我確實指出了這一點，但這不是我們計劃中的預算或實現我們的五年計劃的內容。但我認為我們必須在世界各地尋找解決方案。我在投資者日確實提到過。

In places in the world where private assets -- and I'm not talking about alternate, but private assets have been added to portfolios, societies have gotten superior outcomes. Australia is probably the most visible place where superannuation has achieved very, very successful returns for retirees in Australia.

在世界上一些地方，私人資產——我不是說替代品，而是私人資產被添加到投資組合中，社會取得了卓越的成果。澳洲可能是退休金為澳洲退休人員帶來非常非常成功回報的最明顯的地方。

And one can demonstrate that if you look at the inclusion of private assets along with traditional assets in a blend, we're talking about outcomes that are not slightly better, but talking about 40% to 60% better outcomes. Over time, I believe people will see the light and we will eventually have the inclusion of private assets in what would be traditionally public-only portfolios.

我們可以證明，如果你看看將私人資產與傳統資產混合在一起，我們談論的結果不是稍微好一點，而是好 40% 到 60%。隨著時間的推移，我相信人們會看到曙光，我們最終將把私人資產納入傳統上僅限公開的投資組合中。

Right now, recordkeeping, rule of law or practice, really, have kept significant allocations out of that for the time being to the detriment, I believe, of the participants in these plans. But the retirement opportunity is not just about the $12 trillion to $13 trillion of 401(k) and having a slice of that participate in private assets. It is also about rethinking retirement more generally.

目前，記錄保存、法治或實踐確實暫時保留了大量撥款，我認為這對這些計劃的參與者不利。但退休機會不僅僅是 401(k) 的 12 兆至 13 兆美元以及其中一部分參與私人資產。這也是關於更廣泛地重新思考退休問題。

If I look at our 15 years so far at Athene, I have to really commend the team. They have done an incredible job. They took a start-up, and they turned it into the largest organic originator of retirement products in the US and, I believe, in the world. And they do it really efficiently. They do it really well, and they have very nice rates of return.

如果我回顧 Athene 迄今為止的 15 年，我必須對這個團隊表示真正的讚揚。他們做了令人難以置信的工作。他們創辦了一家新創公司，並將其發展成為美國乃至世界上最大的退休產品有機創始者。他們做得非常有效。他們做得非常好，而且回報率非常高。

But if we're honest, what they've done is they have taken a traditional product set that has not really been updated all that much over the past 15 years and they've just done a better job. And they've offered consumers a piece of the private markets alpha to create better outcomes, and it turns out consumers prefer more to less. I believe there is an opportunity to rethink the product set itself.

但老實說，他們所做的是他們採用了傳統的產品組合，而在過去的 15 年裡，這些產品組合併沒有真正更新太多，而且他們只是做得更好了。他們為消費者提供了私人市場阿爾法的一部分，以創造更好的結果，事實證明，消費者更喜歡更多而不是更少。我相信有機會重新思考產品集本身。

And we had a little discussion of Investor Day, the notion of simplification and getting to guaranteed lifetime income, I believe, to be the north star for where we would like to go. Whether we get all the way there in a simple product that offers guaranteed lifetime income -- we had a little back and forth at Investor Day, but that is what we're pursuing.

我們對投資者日進行了一些討論，我相信，簡化和獲得保證的終身收入的概念將成為我們想去的地方的北極星。我們是否能透過一個簡單的產品一路實現這一目標，提供有保證的終身收入——我們在投資者日上有一些來回討論，但這就是我們所追求的。

But this notion of rethinking the product set I believe, to be the single biggest opportunity in front of us, and that is what is baked into our five-year plan over the next few years. Should we get access to 401(k) through broad-based reform or regulatory change or regulatory encouragement, I believe that would be upside, not just for us but for the entire industry. Limited, of course, by all of our capacity to originate. At the end of the day, this comes back to origination.

但我相信，重新思考產品集的想法是我們面前最大的機遇，這也是我們未來幾年的五年計畫中所包含的內容。如果我們透過廣泛的改革或監管變革或監管鼓勵來獲得 401(k) 的資格，我相信這不僅對我們而且對整個行業都有好處。當然，這受到我們所有創造能力的限制。歸根結底，這又回到了原點。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo.

麥克布朗，富國銀行。

I guess building on that discussion, I wanted to ask about the equity sleeve in the CIT offering that you flagged, Marc. Do you have a pipeline of other opportunities building on our AAA platforms? And I guess, how do you see this expanding? Can it eventually move to wirehouses, for example, on kind of like model portfolio structures?

我想在這次討論的基礎上，我想問一下你標記的企業所得稅產品中的股權套，馬克。您是否還有在我們的 AAA 平台上建置的其他機會？我想，您如何看待這種擴張？例如，它最終能否以類似模型投資組合結構的方式轉移到wirehouse？

So I'll start in reverse. So AAA today is circa $18.5 billion. We expect it to be circa $20 billion at year-end. It is broadly -- it's an equity product, but it is a hybrid type ag, meaning it has lower volatility than traditional equities. And its notion is to produce low double-digit rates of turn with much less volatility than public equities.

所以我將從相反的角度開始。所以今天的 AAA 約為 185 億美元。我們預計到年底將達到約 200 億美元。從廣義上講，它是一種股票產品，但它是一種混合型股份公司，這意味著它的波動性低於傳統股票。它的理念是產生兩位數的低週轉率，且波動性遠低於公共股票。

Recall that public equity is over a long period of time, with volatility offer 9% to 10%. So the use case here is in part equity replacement and in part risk reduction through hybrid without yet moving to fixed income and lower rates of return. We are seeing it adopted in portfolio allocation.

回想一下，公共股票是長期的，波動性為 9% 至 10%。因此，這裡的用例部分是股權置換，部分是透過混合來降低風險，但尚未轉向固定收益和較低的回報率。我們看到它在投資組合配置中被採用。

Right now, it is still being purchased as a product. Someone comes and subscribes to AAA because they want to be in AAA. But I do envision the day when we will be talking about 60-40 portfolios that are comprised of public and private. I do think the future of the retail business will in part be portfolio solutions.

目前，它仍然作為產品被購買。有人來訂閱 AAA，因為他們想加入 AAA。但我確實設想有一天我們將討論 60-40 個由公共和私人組成的投資組合。我確實認為零售業務的未來部分將是組合解決方案。

In the retirement space in this first CIT, that is essentially what is happening. It is an equity -- it's part of the equity sleeve that is the default offering for equity for this group and plan of retirees. Pipeline, I believe, would overstate the progress to date.

在第一個 CIT 的退休空間中，這基本上就是正在發生的事情。它是一種股權——它是股權套的一部分，是該群體和退休人員計劃的預設股權發行。我認為，管道會誇大迄今為止的進展。

I am very happy to see the first and first couple of individuals and firms who are beginning to look at this as part of an overall solution. And let us do a good job doing this, and we'll grow from there. But it's too early to say, pipeline.

我很高興看到第一批個人和公司開始將其視為整體解決方案的一部分。讓我們做好這件事，我們將從那裡成長。但現在說管道還為時過早。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

派崔克戴維特，自主研究。

Going back to Bill's question, it sounds like, obviously, you're getting a lot of traction adding retail distribution. But on that, another manager is seemingly talking down near-term margin expectations primarily as a result of the ramp of payments directly to the distribution platforms. And we aren't really hearing that message from you or others for that matter. So is this a headwind we should expect to see more of? And in that vein, maybe expand on how you account for those and why it might be different than others are?

回到比爾的問題，聽起來顯然，增加零售分銷受到了極大的關注。但就此而言，另一位經理似乎正在降低近期利潤率預期，這主要是由於直接向分銷平台付款的增加。我們並沒有真正從您或其他人那裡聽到有關此事的資訊。那麼，這是我們應該期待看到更多的逆風嗎？本著這種精神，也許可以詳細說明您如何解釋這些以及為什麼它可能與其他人不同？

Patrick, it's Martin. So we're not seeing that headwind. I would say if you look at how retail product is distributed in whatever -- it's through whatever channel, there is a reasonably large segment of the distribution which incurs no cost. So I think family office, we cover a family office ourselves, so sort of external costs just to distribute that product. And there are a couple of other channels which are similar.

派崔克，是馬丁。所以我們沒有看到這種逆風。我想說的是，如果你看看零售產品是如何透過任何通路分銷的，你會發現有相當大的分銷部分是不產生任何成本的。所以我認為家族辦公室，我們自己負責家族辦公室，所以只是為了分銷該產品而產生外部成本。還有其他幾個類似的管道。

Within the channels that we do incur a cost, the cost can come in one or two forms. It can be either a trailer against revenues, which is just netted against the revenue line; or it can be an upfront placement fee, and that's expensed as it's incurred. And we're still early days in this whole evolution. But what we're seeing is a migration of the costs from upfront placement trailer fees.

在我們確實產生成本的管道中，成本可以以一種或兩種形式出現。它可以是針對收入的預告片，僅根據收入線扣除；也可以是針對收入的預告片。或者它可以是預付費用，並在發生時計入費用。我們仍處於整個演變的早期階段。但我們看到的是前期投放預告費的成本改變了。

And I think it reflects the quality of the product and the stickiness of the product. But you'll see within -- all of this is contemplated in the plan that we've laid out. We don't expect to see margin degradation from it. And I think you'll see a majority of the costs over time will be netted against revenues versus an explicit non-comp cost. So hopefully that helps put the pieces together.

而且我認為它體現了產品的品質和產品的黏性。但你會看到——所有這些都在我們制定的計劃中被考慮。我們預計利潤率不會因此下降。我認為隨著時間的推移，您會發現大部分成本將根據收入與明確的非補償成本進行淨額扣除。希望這有助於將各個部分整合在一起。

I'll add a little bit to it. And this is a part of a broader outlook. I mean part of what is implicit in the discussion that we've been having of origination is that we expect private assets to be -- have lots of demand and to be in short line.

我會補充一點。這是更廣闊前景的一部分。我的意思是，我們一直在進行的討論中隱含的部分內容是，我們預計私人資產將有大量的需求，並且是短期的。

If we're right about that, we would expect fees to be stable over a long period of time, unless there is something unexpected that happens in the industry. We -- we've built this entire business, our industry out of the smallest bucket of our institutional products called alternatives.

如果我們的觀點是正確的，我們預計費用將在很長一段時間內保持穩定，除非行業中發生意外情況。我們－我們用我們稱為替代品的最小機構產品建立了整個業務、我們的產業。

All of a sudden, we have three new sources of demand for private assets. Retirement is full swing into private assets. Insurance companies and others have been for a long period of time, and you're seeing them broaden out what they do.

突然之間，我們對私人資產產生了三個新的需求來源。退休後人們全面投入私人資產。保險公司和其他公司已經存在很長一段時間了，你會看到他們擴大了業務範圍。

The second is individuals. Individuals, both through the retail channels that you've been talking about, but also through the convergence of public and private, the inclusion of private assets in public products. So we see that as really interesting growth to what's happening.

第二是個人。個人，既可以透過你一直在談論的零售管道，也可以透過公共和私人的整合，將私人資產納入公共產品。所以我們認為這對正在發生的事情來說是非常有趣的成長。

And then we see our institutions who historically have only invested in private assets out of their alternative business beginning to invest in private assets out of their much larger and, heretofore, untapped fixed income bucket. If we're right, we expect there to be significant demand for private assets.

然後我們看到，我們的機構歷來只投資另類業務中的私人資產，開始從規模大得多且迄今為止尚未開發的固定收益領域投資私人資產。如果我們是對的，我們預計對私人資產的需求將會很大。

And the supply of private assets is not the same as a supply for an asset manager, it is up to each of the firms in their respective areas and where they have expertise to generate these assets that offer excess return per unit of risk. That's after all the promise of private markets.

私人資產的供應與資產管理公司的供應不同，這取決於每個公司在各自領域以及擁有專業知識來產生這些資產，從而為每單位風險提供超額回報。這畢竟是私人市場的承諾。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

布倫南霍肯，瑞銀集團。

Thanks for the adjusted metric of origination, it looks like largely mapped to the prior debt origination disclosure. But maybe can you speak to the equity that you added that's reflected now in the new number and where that's largely sourced from?

感謝調整後的起源指標，它看起來很大程度上映射到了先前的債務起源披露。但也許您能談談您添加的現在反映在新數字中的股本以及其主要來源嗎？

And then also, you have 16 origination platforms, and I believe, historically, you guys have talked about rationalizing that footprint and reducing the number of platforms. So could you give us an update on those efforts and maybe updated expectations for how many platforms you expect and what impact that will have on the P&L?

此外，你們有 16 個發起平台，我相信，從歷史上看，你們已經討論過合理化該足跡並減少平台數量。那麼，您能否向我們介紹這些努力的最新情況，以及您期望的平台數量以及這將對損益表產生什麼影響的最新預期？

Sure. This is Jim. I'll just go through some basic numbers, and Martin can give some color as well. But the $62 billion is the origination number for the quarter. And it's really a vast majority of it is the debt origination, mid- to high 50s is debt origination. And that's split, on the debt side, between the platforms and the core credit. That's a lion's share of that with also our high-grade capital solutions.

當然。這是吉姆。我將只介紹一些基本數字，馬丁也可以提供一些顏色。但 620 億美元是本季的初始數字。實際上，其中絕大多數是債務起源，50 多歲的中上等是債務起源。在債務方面，這是在平台和核心信用之間劃分的。其中很大一部分還包括我們的高級資本解決方案。

Certainly, it's our view, the 16 platforms we've organized and Chris Edson is the person who runs our global origination business, borne all together. It is run in three or four buckets where there's a rationalization of oversight, there's image risk and sourcing and analytics. And so we're not tied to the number.

當然，這是我們的觀點，我們組織了 16 個平台，克里斯·埃德森 (Chris Edson) 負責經營我們的全球原創業務，所有這些都共同承擔。它分為三到四個部分，其中包括合理化的監督、形象風險以及採購和分析。所以我們不受數字的束縛。

We did sell one in the past, and it really was a question of the size of the flow that we received versus the equity investment got out of balance. But for the most part, we're very, very happy with the 16 today. They're diverse in terms of product set, they're diverse in terms of regional and global coverage. You have one similarity, senior secured top of the capital structure risk. The biggest being ATLAS, MidCap, Redding Ridge and Wheels.

我們過去確實賣過一個，這實際上是我們收到的流量大小與股權投資失衡的問題。但總的來說，我們對今天的 16 場比賽感到非常非常滿意。它們的產品組合、區域和全球覆蓋範圍都各不相同。你們有一個相似之處，高級擔保資本結構的頂部風險。最大的是 ATLAS、MidCap、Redding Ridge 和 Wheels。

So we're very focused on those 16 and don't see any more rationalization other than how we oversee and direct the business. And again, this is where the Apollo ecosystem and our historic private equity mentality, we bring that mentality, that oversight of centralized analytics to these capital markets and origination activities, and we've been very successful.

因此，我們非常關注這 16 家公司，除了我們如何監督和指導業務之外，沒有看到任何其他合理化措施。再說一次，這就是阿波羅生態系統和我們歷史悠久的私募股權心態的所在，我們將這種心態，即對這些資本市場和發起活動的集中分析的監督，我們取得了非常成功。

So the other areas, the core credit large capital originations, CLO, CRE are all going along. We do have a number, north of 12 origination partnerships, only a couple of which are public. Obviously, namely Citi was quite a large name.

所以其他領域，核心信用大資金來源、CLO、CRE都在跟著走。我們確實有 12 個創始合作夥伴，其中只有幾個是公開的。顯然，花旗是一個相當大的名字。

And so from our perspective, the business is we feel we are a market leader. Following the nomenclature that's used by many of our peers in the conversations in these conference calls. It seems like there is a lot of renaissance and insight into this strategy, but we feel we are the market leader and it's all about capturing that rate yield on a risk-adjusted basis. So no big change in the strategy.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們認為自己是市場領導者。遵循我們許多同行在這些電話會議的對話中使用的術語。似乎這項策略有很多復興和洞察力，但我們認為我們是市場領導者，這一切都是為了在風險調整的基礎上獲得利率收益。所以策略上沒有太大的改變。

So I'm going to just pick up on two tangents. The first on cost. Recall that these platforms are stand-alone entities. We generally -- we may start owning 100% of them. We generally do not own 100% of the sizable platforms over time.

所以我要選兩條切線。首先是成本。請記住，這些平台是獨立的實體。一般來說，我們可能會開始擁有 100% 的股份。隨著時間的推移，我們通常不會 100% 擁有大型平台。

We own them, as I suggested earlier, in partnership with institutional investors and in partnership, in some cases, with people would view competitive peer insurance companies. There is no expense DRIP, you will, from the platforms. The platforms bear their own expenses, and it's part of the ROE of a platform.

正如我之前建議的，我們與機構投資者合作擁有它們，在某些情況下，與人們認為有競爭力的同行保險公司合作。平台上沒有任何費用 DRIP。平台自己承擔費用，這是平台ROE的一部分。

And by the way, the ROEs on the platform are generally quite good. And they form a bulk of what is inside of AAA at this point in time. So you can see the synergy of how the business works together. The part we didn't talk about was equity, and I think it's interesting to talk about equity.

順便說一下，平台上的 ROE 整體來說還是不錯的。此時它們構成了 AAA 內部的大部分內容。因此，您可以看到業務如何協同運作的協同作用。我們沒有談論的部分是公平，我認為談論公平很有趣。

Our five-year plan envisions very substantial penetration on a fixed income replacement. Recall, the five-year plan calls for doubling of the size of our credit business, which is already our largest business. But in contrast to our first five-year plan, the second five-year plan also forecast that we will substantially grow our equity business, particularly in hybrid equity. Hybrid being not a hybrid like a bank hybrid, but hybrid being the midpoint between debt and equity. Think of it as lower risk, lower reward equity.

我們的五年計畫設想了固定收益替代品的大幅滲透。回想一下，五年計畫要求我們的信貸業務規模擴大一倍，這已經是我們最大的業務了。但與我們的第一個五年計畫相反，第二個五年計畫也預測我們將大幅成長我們的股權業務，特別是混合股權業務。混合型不是像銀行混合型那樣的混合型，而是債務和股權之間的混合型。將其視為風險較低、回報較低的股權。

Starting to measure that, holding the teams responsible for that is a key part of the way the business is run. And so putting it out there and having a report card for all of you, that shows that we're doing I believe to be very important. I thought the team did a very good job and presented a very compelling case for the growth of the equity franchise over a period of time, and it's a key plank in our strategy and measuring is where it starts.

開始衡量這一點，讓團隊對此負責是業務運作方式的關鍵部分。因此，將其放在那裡並為大家提供一份成績單，這表明我們正在做的事情我認為非常重要。我認為團隊做得非常好，並為股權特許經營在一段時間內的成長提供了非常令人信服的案例，這是我們策略的關鍵部分，衡量是它的起點。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

布萊恩·比德爾，德意志銀行。

Maybe just back on the origination at $62 billion. You're obviously annualized, that's almost $250 million. And your goal is $275 million per annum over the next five years.

也許只是回到了 620 億美元的起點。顯然，按年計算，接近 2.5 億美元。您的目標是未來五年每年 2.75 億美元。

So I just wanted to get some context on where this level could go, if there are any significant capacity constraints that would limit you from going materially higher than a $275 million run rate? And then as you distribute that, I think the template has been up 25% third party, 50% Athene and 25% syndication.

所以我只是想了解一下這個水準的走向，是否有任何重大的產能限制會限制你的運行率大幅高於 2.75 億美元？然後當你分發它時，我認為模板已經增加了 25% 的第三方、50% 的 Athene 和 25% 的聯合組織。

How might any kind of overage of -- if you exceed your goals on $275 million and as you think about the allocation through the different parts of that of those businesses, how might those change if the origination exceeds those goals?

如果您超出了 2.75 億美元的目標，並且當您考慮透過這些業務的不同部分進行分配時，如果起源超出了這些目標，那麼這些超額可能會如何變化？

Well, thank you. It's Jim. Since we're a broad 60 days into our five-year plan, we're not going to adjust the number at this point in time. But I guess I'd give a little -- let me give you a little bit more color on the business in terms of spread and scale and breadth. And I'd also -- before I get to that, like this is the whole -- the philosophy of the third-party business.

嗯，謝謝。是吉姆。由於我們的五年計劃還剩 60 天，我們目前不會調整這個數字。但我想我會從傳播、規模和廣度方面給你們提供更多關於該業務的資訊。在講到這一點之前，我還要了解第三方業務的概念，就像這就是全部一樣。

The third -- the philosophy on syndication, architecture, evergreen products, these all tie into the notion of expanding the footprint, expanding origination, having partnerships and winding 25% of everything and 100% of nothing. This all is very consistent with that theme.

第三個——聯合組織、架構、常青產品的理念，這些都與擴大足跡、擴大起源、建立合作夥伴關係以及纏繞 25% 的一切和 100% 的無的理念相關。這一切都與該主題非常一致。

I will give you a bit of color. What we have found year-to-date over the last 24 months, is on the origination platforms, which have grown nicely and are a big contributor, that the actual spreads on the products that we're creating has stayed in that mid-300s approaching 400 over on a spread basis.

我會給你一點顏色。我們在過去 24 個月裡發現，在源頭平台上，這些平台發展得很好，是一個很大的貢獻者，我們正在創建的產品的實際點差一直保持在 300 左右按價差計算接近 400 多個。

And notwithstanding the volatility in the treasury market and the compression of spreads in public corporate credit, which has been very, very strong, over 150 basis points of compression spreads, spreads have tightened maybe 10 to 15 basis points out of the origination platform. So approximately 400 over to 385, 390.

儘管國債市場波動較大，公共企業信貸利差壓縮非常非常強勁，壓縮利差超過 150 個基點，但利差較原始平台收窄了 10 至 15 個基點。所以大約 400 到 385、390。

On the traditional credit platforms, we've had a bit more compression. If the public markets have compressed 150 basis points, we've got about 60, 70 basis points of compression in spread. And when you add that all up, we are -- we were in the 410 area. About a year or so ago, we're like in the 375, 380 zip code today.

在傳統的信用平台上，我們有更多的壓縮。如果公開市場壓縮了 150 個基點，那麼利差就會壓縮約 60、70 個基點。當你把所有這些加起來時，我們——我們在 410 區域。大約一年前，我們今天的郵遞區號是 375、380。

So compelling, scaled value proposition, which is really feeding all of our business. It's feeding ADS. It's feeding AAA, it's feeding ASPC, all the products and will so in the future. We're excited about the launch of ABC in terms of our asset-backed corporation.

如此引人注目、規模化的價值主張，確實為我們所有的業務提供了動力。它正在餵養ADS。它正在為 AAA、ASPC 以及所有產品提供支持，並且將來也會如此。我們對資產支持公司 ABC 的推出感到非常興奮。

But again, I think it would be presumptive to expand that estimate of our scale, but I don't want to underestimate the impact of the flywheel of syndication of ACS, of global wealth, of third-party insurance, which it touches on all of those.

但我再次認為，擴大對我們規模的估計是有可能的，但我不想低估 ACS 聯合組織、全球財富、第三方保險飛輪的影響，它涉及所有領域。

Ken Worthington, JPMorgan Chase.

肯‧沃辛頓，摩根大通。

Rates have backed up subsequent to the end of the quarter, how does the move impact the hedges that you called out last quarter? And to what extent are you using the higher rates to engage to further fix your floating assets? And is the move that we've seen in rates enough to impact spreads as we think about 4Q?

利率在本季末後有所回升，這一舉動對您上季度提出的對沖有何影響？您在多大程度上利用較高的利率來進一步修復您的浮動資產？當我們考慮第四季時，我們看到的利率變動是否足以影響利差？

So our plan, I think, as we are clear is to maintain a net floating rate position around $15 billion. And so move-in rates won't change that hedge posture, certainly within the context of what we're seeing. And if you recall from the Investor Day, we had modeled our our expectations, we'd have six rate cuts or the equivalent of six rate cuts in the estimates we provided to this year and another four before the end of next year. So that's looking more more realistic today than I think it was back a month, six weeks ago.

因此，我認為，正如我們所明確的那樣，我們的計劃是將淨浮動利率部位維持在 150 億美元左右。因此，遷入利率不會改變對沖態勢，當然在我們所看到的背景下。如果您還記得投資者日的情況，我們已經對我們的預期進行了建模，我們將進行六次降息，或者相當於我們今年提供的估計中的六次降息，並在明年年底之前再進行四次降息。所以今天看起來比我一個月六週前認為的更現實。

So Ken, no real change. We're just -- it's obviously a component of earnings, and we were pretty clear about extreme moves in rates on the open and how that affects the blended growth of the business after core earnings growth, but no change to hedge posture or outlook.

所以肯，沒有真正的改變。我們只是——這顯然是盈利的一個組成部分，我們非常清楚公開利率的極端變動以及這如何影響核心盈利增長後業務的混合增長，但對沖態勢或前景沒有變化。

Ben Budish, Barclays.

本·布迪什，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to ask about the SRE guidance. If I just think back to last quarter, can you unpack a little bit what went sort of better than expected. When I look at least at street numbers, it looked like your cost of funds came in a little lower than expected.

我想問一下 SRE 指南。如果我回想一下上個季度，你能稍微分析一下比預期更好的情況嗎？至少當我查看街道號碼時，您的資金成本似乎比預期要低一些。

And then taking to Q4, your full year guidance is unchanged. So thinking about perhaps went better this quarter, is there some sort of reversal expected or any kind of timing differences? How do we be thinking about those different factors?

然後到第四季度，您的全年指導保持不變。因此，考慮一下本季度可能會更好，是否會出現某種預期的逆轉或任何時間差異？我們如何考慮這些不同的因素？

Yes. So we had a $20 billion quarter. So that's very strong, and that drove earnings. We also were able to invest at the margin. And as sort of using the metrics that Jim just walked through, the spread that we are able to earn on assets at the margin was a bit better than we were expecting it to be.

是的。所以我們有一個 200 億美元的季度。所以這非常強勁，並且推動了盈利。我們也能夠進行邊際投資。根據吉姆剛剛介紹的指標，我們能夠從資產上賺取的邊際利差比我們預期的要好一些。

So it's really those two components. I mentioned that we expect Q4 to be more or less the same as Q3 in terms of SRE dollars, assuming 11% return on notes. That would get you to a 5% growth rate for the year like-for-like. We said 4% at the Investor Day.

所以它實際上是這兩個組件。我提到過，假設票據回報率為 11%，我們預計第四季的 SRE 美元金額將與第三季大致相同。這將使您今年的成長率達到 5%。我們在投資者日說過 4%。

So it's sort of right on top of what we suggested. So no real change. It's just we had a larger quarter in top line growth and that pulled through to reported this time.

所以它是在我們建議之上的。所以沒有真正的改變。只是我們的季度收入成長更大，並且這次得以實現報告。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農，傑弗里斯。

So just a follow-up on that question. So are the changes to the alternative allocation for retirement services complete? I think you mentioned AAA now represents 8%. So therefore, getting to that 11% normalized return given AAA's performance. Is that what we should be expecting going forward?

所以只是這個問題的後續行動。那麼，退休服務替代分配的變更是否已經完成？我想你提到的AAA現在代表8%。因此，考慮到 AAA 的表現，達到 11% 的標準化回報率。這是我們未來該期待的嗎？

Yes. The answer is yes, they are complete. So -- and I'll just provide some context around what the portfolio looks like today. So -- about 80% of the old portfolio is represented by AAA. About 10% is represented by retirement services platforms that we retain, Athora principally.

是的。答案是肯定的，它們是完整的。因此，我將提供一些有關目前投資組合的背景資訊。因此，大約 80% 的舊投資組合由 AAA 代表。大約 10% 是我們保留的退休服務平台，主要是 Athora。

And a small exposure to Venerable. The other platforms have all been repositioned or sold within the group in the third quarter. And the other 10% is other investments typically in hybrid type fund investments around the platform that we would expect would generate teens returns over time.

並小見尊者。其他平台已在第三季在集團內重新定位或出售。另外 10% 是其他投資，通常是圍繞平台的混合基金投資，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這些投資將產生十幾歲的回報。

So we have done the repositioning that's behind us. And we obviously believe that, that will help in getting to a sustained sort of 11%, circa 11% returns over time.

所以我們已經完成了後面的重新定位。我們顯然相信，隨著時間的推移，這將有助於實現 11% 左右的持續回報率。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

麥可‧賽普里斯，摩根士丹利。

I was hoping you could update us on the use of your site car vehicle. In the past, you guys had talked about ADP taking down about 40% to 45% or so of new funds over time. I think year-to-date, it's a bit less than that. Just curious if you could just update us on how you see that evolving over the next couple of years, what factors you consider in toggling ADP's contribution higher? And then in what scenario might you increase the dividend out of Athene relative to your guide consistent $750 million a year of dividends?

我希望您能向我們介紹您現場車輛的使用情況。過去，你們曾談論過 ADP 隨著時間的推移會減少大約 40% 到 45% 左右的新基金。我認為今年迄今為止，這個數字要少一些。只是好奇您能否向我們介紹一下您對未來幾年的發展情況的最新看法，您在提高 ADP 的貢獻時考慮了哪些因素？那麼，相對於您的指南每年 7.5 億美元的股息，在什麼情況下您可能會增加 Athene 的股息？

So we outlined that the SRE growth is governed by or driven by a couple of different components. Obviously, the underlying core growth in the business is one. Rates, two. Back book repositioning, three. And then the contribution of capital to taking down new business as the fourth.

因此，我們概述了 SRE 的成長是由幾個不同的組成部分控製或驅動的。顯然，業務的潛在核心成長就是其中之一。價格，二。書背重新定位，三。然後是拿下新業務的資本貢獻為第四。

There are some choices in there that we can make, and we're pretty clear that, within parameters, that we've established we can make choices to increase or decrease the participation that ADP has over time. And that's relevant, not just in aggregate, but it's also relevant at the product level.

我們可以做出一些選擇，而且我們非常清楚，在我們確定的參數範圍內，我們可以做出選擇，隨著時間的推移增加或減少 ADP 的參與度。這是相關的，不僅在整體上，而且在產品層面也相關。

And so that's part of how we are able to achieve the earnings growth that we've outlined. I think over time, you should expect that the rate of participation will be consistent with our long-term average. So I think sort of mid- to high 30s, 40% as an appropriate return -- percentage participation in business over time.

因此，這就是我們能夠實現我們所概述的獲利成長的一部分。我認為隨著時間的推移，您應該預期參與率將與我們的長期平均值保持一致。因此，我認為 30 多歲、40% 左右的回報率是適當的回報——隨著時間的推移，參與業務的百分比。

Maybe I'll just close it out with just two additional thoughts. In terms of capital, as you know, we take roughly a $750 million a year dividend out of the scene. The forecast that we gave you does not have any real change in that because it is also tied to a substantial amount of growth in the retirement services business.

也許我會用兩個額外的想法來結束它。就資本而言，如您所知，我們每年抽取約 7.5 億美元的股息。我們給您的預測沒有任何實際變化，因為它也與退休服務業務的大幅成長有關。

And growth, as Martin suggested, can be organic growth in the business or Athene always has a choice to own more of the business that it creates rather than giving it out to the sidecar, which is not done on a deal-by-deal basis, it's done over a long period of time and over vintage.

正如馬丁所建議的，成長可以是業務的有機成長，或者雅典娜總是可以選擇擁有更多其創建的業務，而不是將其分配給邊車，這不是在逐筆交易的基礎上完成的，它是在很長一段時間內完成的，而且是復古的。

So it's not something you can change immediately. But you should assume, as Martin suggested, that the dividend out of Athene remains the same, absent a real falloff in business, which we do not expect. I do think it's worth a question on the sidecar.

所以這不是你可以立即改變的事情。但你應該假設，正如馬丁所建議的那樣，雅典娜的股息保持不變，業務沒有出現真正的下滑，而我們並不期望這種情況。我確實認為值得對邊車提出一個問題。

This is something we've tried very hard to make the point on -- the insurance business, the retirement services business is so attractive that we actually have clients who pay us to be in the business with us. Not only do they pay in the sidecar, the same asset management fees that Athene pays, they also pay a fronting fee to Athene for putting the business on the books. And they pay a fee in terms of promote on the overall.

這是我們非常努力想要強調的一點——保險業務、退休服務業務是如此有吸引力，以至於我們實際上有客戶付錢給我們來與我們開展業務。他們不僅在 Sidecar 中支付與 Athene 支付的相同的資產管理費，而且還向 Athene 支付一筆將業務登記在冊的前期費用。他們在整體推廣方面支付費用。

And so the ability to put more than $6 billion into a sidecar reflects a belief that we will use this responsibly and we will generate high rates of return on a responsible basis over a long period of time. If you do that, you get to raise a sidecar. If you don't do that, you are forced to build the business solely with your own capital to subsidize. That is a little bit of what we see going on in the industry today.

因此，能夠在 sidecar 上投入超過 60 億美元，反映出我們相信我們將負責任地使用它，並且我們將在負責任的基礎上長期產生高回報率。如果你這樣做，你就可以舉起邊車。如果您不這樣做，您將被迫僅用自己的資金來建立業務來補貼。這就是我們今天在行業中看到的一些情況。

And recall that capital regimes in the US and Bermuda on the one hand and capital regimes in places like Cayman and the other are totally different. I do believe a word of caution in our industry. Any time you hear people have gone to Caymans, you should just divide the capital by two.

請記住，美國和百慕達的資本製度與開曼等地的資本製度完全不同。我確實相信我們行業的一個警告。任何時候你聽說有人去了開曼群島，你應該把首都除以二。

I do not personally believe that is going to end well, and it's not where we intend or how we run the business. We do things on a long-term sustainable basis, that provide good rates of return for people while having adequate capital in the business.

我個人認為這不會有好結果，這不是我們的意圖或我們經營業務的方式。我們在長期可持續的基礎上做事，為人們提供良好的回報率，同時擁有充足的業務資本。

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Gunn for closing comments.

謝謝。現在，我想把發言權交還給古恩先生以供結束發言。

Great. I'd just like to close by saying on behalf of our entire team, we really appreciate, again, all the time that you've given to us and focusing on our business between Investor Day and today's call. If you have any follow-up questions on anything we discuss, feel free to follow up with us directly, and we look forward to speaking with you again. next quarter. Thank you.

偉大的。最後，我想代表我們整個團隊說，我們再次非常感謝您在投資者日和今天的電話會議之間給予我們的所有時間並專注於我們的業務。如果您對我們討論的任何內容有任何後續問題，請隨時直接與我們聯繫，我們期待再次與您交談。下個季度。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的活動到此結束。您可以斷開線路或退出網路廣播，然後享受剩下的一天。