Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Apollo Global Management's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加阿波羅全球管理公司 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) This conference call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）本次電話會議正在錄音。

This call may include forward-looking statements and projections which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to Apollo's most recent SEC filings for risk factors related to these statements. Apollo will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call which management believes are relevant in assessing financial performance of the business. These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in Apollo's earnings presentation which is available on the company's website.

本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述和預測，這些陳述和預測不保證未來事件或績效。有關這些陳述的風險因素，請參閱阿波羅最近提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件。阿波羅將在本次電話會議上討論管理階層認為與評估業務財務績效相關的某些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標。這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標已與阿波羅獲利報告中的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 資料進行核對，該報告可在公司網站上查閱。

Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Apollo fund.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成出售阿波羅基金權益的要約或購買要約的邀請。

I will now turn the call over to Noah Gunn, Global Head of Investor Relations.

現在我將把電話轉給全球投資者關係主管 Noah Gunn。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Great. Thanks, Donna. And welcome again, everyone, to our call.

太好了！謝謝，唐娜。再次歡迎大家參加我們的電話會議。

Earlier this morning, we published our earnings release and financial supplement on the investor relations portion of our website. And in short, fourth quarter results rounded out an exceptionally strong year for both our asset management and retirement services businesses. Our 2 primary earnings streams, fee-related earnings and spread-related earnings, grew more than 25% to a record $4.9 billion in 2023. Combined with principal investing income, HoldCo, financing costs and taxes, we reported record adjusted net income of $4.1 billion or $6.74 per share for the full year.

今天早上，我們在網站的投資者關係版塊發布了收益報告和財務補充。簡而言之，第四季的業績為我們的資產管理和退休服務業務的強勁成長畫上了圓滿的句號。我們兩大主要收益來源——費用相關收益和利差相關收益——2023年成長了25%以上，達到創紀錄的49億美元。加上本金投資收益、HoldCo收益、融資成本和稅金，我們全年調整後淨利達到創紀錄的41億美元，即每股6.74美元。

One change to highlight in our financial reporting included with this morning's results. Beginning this quarter, within retirement services, you'll see spread-related earnings excluding notable items. And further down the page, we provide additional information highlighting the delta to arrive at our long-term return expectation for Athene's alternative investments. This information is useful in order to understand how we think about Athene's earnings power on a multiyear basis excluding quarterly mark-to-market fluctuations. And importantly, this change has no impact on historically reported SRE or the magnitude of historically reported notable items.

今天早上發布的財務報告中，有一項變化需要重點強調。從本季度開始，在退休服務領域，您將看到與利差相關的收益，其中不包括顯著項目。在頁面下方，我們提供了更多信息，重點介紹了用於得出我們對雅典娜另類投資長期回報預期的差值。這些資訊有助於理解我們如何看待雅典娜在多年期內（不包括季度以市價計算的波動）的獲利能力。重要的是，這項變更對歷史報告的SRE或歷史報告顯著項目的規模沒有影響。

So joining me to discuss our strong results in more detail and outlook for the year ahead are Marc Rowan, CEO; Scott Kleinman, co-President; and Martin Kelly, CFO.

因此，與我一起更詳細地討論我們的強勁業績和未來一年的展望的是首席執行官馬克·羅文 (Marc Rowan)、聯席總裁斯科特·克萊曼 (Scott Kleinman) 和首席財務官馬丁·凱利 (Martin Kelly)。

And with that, I'll hand over to Marc.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給馬克。

Thanks, Noah. And it's my pleasure to actually walk through what was a very strong year both in growth and execution.

謝謝，諾亞。我很高興能夠見證公司在成長和執行方面都非常強勁的一年。

If you had told me at the beginning of the year that we were going to grow 25%-plus in FRE and 26% in SRE and that we would do that successfully, we would be doing a victory lap here. And I assure you we are, in fact, doing that victory lap. Those ranges, while I wish they were recurring every year, are not the normal expectation you should have for the business. We've consistently guided all of our investors to what I believe and we believe is a long-term growth rate in FRE, which is 15% to 20% in a non-flagship year; and to low double-digit growth in SRE.

如果你在年初告訴我，我們的FRE（房屋房地產）成長率將超過25%，SRE（服務房地產）成長率將達到26%，而且我們能夠成功實現這一目標，我們肯定會為此歡呼雀躍。我向你保證，我們確實在慶祝。雖然我希望這些成長幅度每年都能維持，但這並非對業務的正常預期。我們始終引導所有投資者關注我和我們共同認為的FRE的長期增長率，即在非旗艦年份達到15%到20%；SRE則實現低兩位數的增長。

2023 was truly exceptional. Recall that, particularly in our SRE segment, in our retirement services segment, we are not a near-term profit maximizer. 2023 was extraordinary. We ended the year holding more than $12 billion of cash. We also used the very strong results to begin the creation of a countercyclical portfolio, which had us for the first time in a long time make a significant move into treasuries. While this costs us near-term SRE, it gives us flexibility to redeploy into very strong origination volumes, which you will hear about.

2023年確實是非凡的一年。回想一下，尤其是在我們的SRE部門，也就是退休服務部門，我們並非短期利潤最大化的追求者。 2023年是非凡的一年。年底，我們持有超過120億美元的現金。我們也利用強勁的業績開始建立逆週期投資組合，這讓我們長期以來首次大舉進軍國債市場。雖然這在短期內會損失SRE，但它賦予了我們靈活性，可以重新部署到非常強勁的發行量中，這一點您稍後會聽到。

In the third quarter, just -- excuse me, in the fourth quarter, just to highlight how strong originations volumes were. We did north of $30 billion of originations. We hope to continue up that pace. And having a pile of cash and a treasury portfolio will allow us to continue to grow SRE in the low double digits, which is what we seek to do.

第三季度，不好意思，是第四季度，我只是想強調我們的貸款發放量有多強勁。我們的貸款發放量超過了300億美元。我們希望繼續保持這個速度。雄厚的現金和資金組合將使我們能夠繼續保持SRE的兩位數低點成長，這正是我們努力的目標。

Away from earnings. Margins were up over 200 basis points. AUM hit a record $651 billion. Inflows were $160 billion. And Athene had record inflows of $66 billion. Even in inflows, Athene is not a near-term profit maximizer. This was an opportunity to really shape the kind of business and the kind of distribution that Athene wanted. And we would expect to exceed this number in terms of originations, organic originations, for Athene moving into 2024.

撇開獲利不談，利潤率上漲了超過200個基點。資產管理規模達到創紀錄的6,510億美元。資金流入量達1600億美元。雅典娜的資金流入量也達到了創紀錄的660億美元。即便如此，雅典娜並非短期利潤最大化的追求者。這是一個真正塑造雅典娜想要的業務類型和分銷模式的機會。我們預計，到2024年，雅典娜的自然資金流出量將超過這個數字。

2024, we see as a year of continued momentum, but we also see it taking shape slightly differently than 2023. Credit, we believe, will dominate 2024. Growth at Athene and equity strategies other than PE. Martin will spend time in his remarks discussing the '24 outlook and the finer details of Q4.

我們認為2024年將是持續成長動能的一年，但其發展形態與2023年略有不同。我們認為，信貸將主導2024年。 Athene的成長策略以及PE以外的股票策略。 Martin將在演講中詳細討論2024年的展望以及第四季的具體細節。

I thought what I would do is spend my time and provide a little bit of historical perspective and also a bit of a roadmap as to where we're going.

我認為我要做的就是花一些時間並提供一些歷史觀點以及我們前進方向的路線圖。

We've just come back from our partners retreat, where all 201 Apollo partners get together and we discuss the outlook. And I began those remarks by anchoring people in history. In 2008, we were $44 billion of AUM. You fast forward. We've grown 14x. That's faster than Apple's revenue. That's faster than Microsoft's revenue. That's faster than semiconductors. Truly extraordinary.

我們剛結束合夥人務虛會，所有201位阿波羅合夥人齊聚一堂，共同探討未來發展方向。我首先回顧了歷史。 2008年，我們的資產管理規模（AUM）為440億美元。現在，我們成長了14倍。這比蘋果的營收成長更快，比微軟的營收成長更快，比半導體產業成長更快。這真是非同尋常。

I'd like to think that was all as a result of management acumen and management positioning, but we are the beneficiary of macro industry factors that drove not just us but our entire industry. Dodd-Frank, substantial money printing, a research for excess return in a low rate environment and the commoditization of debt and equity markets, public markets, through indexation and correlation were the powerful tailwinds that drove our industry and allowed us to grow 14x.

我想這一切都歸功於管理敏銳度和管理定位，但我們也受益於宏觀產業因素，這些因素不僅推動了我們，也推動了整個產業的發展。 《多德-弗蘭克法案》、大規模印鈔、低利率環境下的超額回報研究，以及透過指數化和相關性實現的債務和股票市場、公開市場的商品化，都是推動我們產業發展的強勁推動力，使我們實現了14倍的成長。

Some of these factors are still here, but I have to say the factors that are going to drive us going forward are different than the factors that in fact got us to 2023. As I think about the big drivers of our business, first, I think there is a fundamental rethink going on as to the difference between public and private. Most of us have grown up in an investment world where private was risky and public was safe. We had a private allocation, an alternative's bucket, illiquid allocation. And it was generally a relatively small portion of an institution or an individual's total strategic asset allocation and with good reason.

其中一些因素仍然存在，但我必須說，推動我們前進的因素與實際上將我們推向2023年的因素不同。當我思考我們業務的主要驅動力時，首先，我認為我們正在從根本上重新思考公募和私募之間的差異。我們大多數人成長於一個投資世界，私募有風險，而公募安全。我們有私募配置、另類資產配置和非流動性配置。而且，它們通常只佔機構或個人整體策略資產配置的一小部分，這是有充分理由的。

Private, at least in the old days, was risky. Private equity, venture capital and hedge funds dominated the private bucket. On the other hand, public was perceived as safe. Stocks and bonds 60-40 portfolio, I believe we're moving to a world where public is both safe and risky, and private is safe and risky. And the difference is only a matter of liquidity. I believe we are going to see a substantial pivot from institutions where they begin to think about private not just in a traditional alternatives context, but they think about private as just another investment that has a little less liquidity. And the question they'll be asking is, "Am I being compensated for slightly less liquidity?" I think that is nothing but a positive for our industry and for our firm.

私募，至少在過去，是有風險的。私募股權、創投和對沖基金主導了私募領域。另一方面，公募被認為是安全的。股票和債券的投資組合比例是60:40，我相信我們正走向一個公募既安全又有風險，私募也安全又有風險的世界。差別僅在於流動性。我相信我們將看到機構投資者發生重大轉變，他們開始不再僅僅從傳統的另類投資角度來看待私募，而是將私募視為另一種流動性稍差的投資。他們會問：「我是否因為流動性略低而獲得了補償？」我認為這對我們的產業和公司來說無疑是一件好事。

The second is, this continued commoditization of public market returns. We are at an extreme of indexation and concentration and correlation. Not just between debt and equity markets, but so much of our equity market is dominated by a handful of companies that -- with outsized valuations and outsized PE that really do drive the public indices. While that's going up, that feels great. That can just as easily go in the other direction.

第二，公開市場報酬的持續商品化。我們正處於指數化、集中化和相關性的極端狀態。這不僅體現在債券和股票市場之間，而且我們的股票市場很大一部分被少數幾家公司所主導——這些公司估值過高、市盈率過高，真正推動了公開市場指數的上漲。雖然這些公司正在上漲，但感覺很好。情況也可能很容易朝著相反的方向發展。

Sophisticated investors, institutional and individual, understand this. And if they are seeking to separate themselves from the beta of the public markets and look for alpha, they will need to look for other solutions other than those in the public markets and through indexation.

經驗豐富的投資者，無論是機構投資者或個人投資者，都深諳此道。如果他們想要擺脫公開市場的貝塔效應，追求阿爾法收益，就需要尋找公開市場和指數化投資以外的其他解決方案。

High net worth and the entry of individual investors into the private markets and alternatives. We are in the earliest early days of this. This hasn't even started. This is a $65 trillion market that ultimately has the potential for private markets investors such as ourselves and our peer group to be as large, if not larger than, our institutional market.

高淨值人士以及個人投資者進入私募市場和另類投資市場。我們正處於這一領域的早期階段，甚至還沒有開始。這是一個65兆美元的市場，最終，像我們和我們的同業這樣的私募市場投資者，其規模有可能與機構市場持平，甚至更大。

For us to get there, it's going to take education. We are evangelical in this because what private investments can do for an investor's portfolio is well substantiated academically and through financial records, but the level of understanding of how private investments can be incorporated into these portfolios is very, very immature. I look at the largest pool of investable capital anywhere in the world, some $12 trillion in 401(k). These are the people in our country who need returns the most, and we force them to be daily liquid for 50 years. Why? I don't know why. I don't think there's a good reason why. And we're beginning to see cracks even in the 401(k) market of an allocation to private, which is different than an allocation to risk, but again I think this is a very powerful trend that bodes well for our firm and for our industry.

要達到這個目標，我們需要教育。我們對此持正面態度，因為私人投資對投資人投資組合的影響在學術和財務記錄中都有充分的證明，但對於如何將私人投資納入這些投資組合的理解卻非常非常不成熟。我關注的是世界上最大的可投資資本池，401(k) 帳戶中約有 12 兆美元。這些人是我們國家最需要回報的人，而我們卻強迫他們在 50 年內每天保持流動性。為什麼？我不知道為什麼。我認為沒有充分的理由。即使在 401(k) 市場中，我們也開始看到私人配置的裂痕，這與風險配置不同，但我仍然認為這是一個非常強勁的趨勢，對我們公司和我們的行業來說都是好兆頭。

Finally, can't escape that we're all getting older. Our society is getting older. Europe is getting older, Japan is getting older, Australia is getting older, most Western markets are getting older. Most markets have done a very poor job of retirement savings. The retirement savings crisis in the U.S. is particularly acute. The numbers are well known. And I believe there is a substantial role for firms such as ours to play in [buffeting] investor savings and allowing them to -- allowing us to provide them guaranteed lifetime income.

最後，我們所有人都在變老，這是無法迴避的事實。我們的社會正在老化。歐洲、日本、澳大利亞，大多數西方市場都在老化。大多數市場在退休儲蓄方面做得非常糟糕。美國的退休儲蓄危機尤其嚴重，其數字眾所周知。我相信，像我們這樣的公司在（衝擊）投資者儲蓄，並允許他們——允許我們為他們提供有保障的終身收入方面，可以發揮重要作用。

In short, we find ourselves at $650 billion as a relatively small entity in the scheme of asset management, surrounded by 4 massive markets. The market for fixed income replacement. Think of this as a rotation -- institutions' and individuals' normal fixed income portfolios into private as well as public, so-called private investment grade.

簡而言之，在資產管理領域，我們規模相對較小，但資產管理規模卻高達6,500億美元，周圍環繞著四個龐大的市場。固定收益替代市場。可以將其視為一種輪換——機構和個人的常規固定收益投資組合，既有私人的，也有公共的，也就是所謂的私人投資級。

The second is the high net worth market, moving from traditional out -- 60-40 allocation into private market allocation. The third is rotations out of active management and into other products. And finally, the retirement market. Each of those markets offers us the opportunity to double our firm over a number of years. We just have to make sure that we are well positioned, we make the investments today and accept that the tailwinds that powered us to 2023 are not the same as the tailwinds that are likely to power us going forward, that the products that powered us to where we are, are not exactly the same as the products that are going to power us going forward.

第二是高淨值市場，從傳統的60-40配置轉向私募市場配置。第三是從主動式管理投資轉向其他產品。最後是退休市場。每個市場都為我們提供了在未來幾年內實現公司規模翻倍的機會。我們只需確保自身處於有利位置，進行當下的投資，並接受這樣一個事實：推動我們走到2023年的順風與未來可能推動我們前進的順風並不完全相同；推動我們走到今天的產品與未來可能推動我們前進的產品也不完全相同。

Fundamentally, we need to embrace change, but I like the position that we're starting from. We're starting from the only scaled player in private IG, a leading retirement services footprint, the largest hybrid ecosystem, all of which is fueled by origination.

從根本上來說，我們需要擁抱變化，但我喜歡我們現在的起點。我們目前是私人投資等級基金領域唯一規模化的參與者，擁有領先的退休服務佈局，以及最大的混合生態系統，所有這些都由創始團隊驅動。

So what do we need to do? And what should you be looking for as milestones for whether in fact we are proceeding positively toward a path to take advantage of the opportunities that surround our industry and surround our firm. By far, the most important thing that we need to do is scale our origination. As you know, we have been running at roughly $100 billion of annual origination, $30 billion of which came in the fourth quarter. We need to rapidly move that up, with a goal of somewhere between $200 billion and $250 billion of origination 5 years from now.

那我們需要做什麼？你們應該關注哪些里程碑，來判斷我們是否真的在積極地朝著一條道路前進，以利用我們行業和我們公司周圍的機會。到目前為止，我們需要做的最重要的事情是擴大我們的貸款發放規模。如你所知，我們每年的貸款發放規模約為1000億美元，其中300億美元來自第四季。我們需要迅速提升這個水平，目標是5年後貸款發放規模達到2,000億到2,500億美元之間。

As an alternative firms, that provides excess return per unit of risk, we can only grow as fast as we scale our capacity to create investments that in fact offer our clients excess return per unit of risk. If we grow too fast or simply seek to gather assets, we will commoditize our business, and ultimately we will not like the results of that, so origination, probably first and second.

作為一家提供單位風險超額報酬的另類投資公司，我們的成長速度取決於我們能否擴大投資能力，進而創造真正能為客戶帶來單位風險超額報酬的投資項目。如果我們發展太快，或僅僅追求資產積累，就會將業務商品化，最終我們不會喜歡這樣的結果，所以，發起業務可能是我們優先考慮的，也是我們第二考慮的。

Capital formation. Not only do we need to continue to build out our high net worth coverage, but if we are going to serve fixed income replacement, so-called private investment grade, the sale, the way things are sold, the client base is actually completely different than the traditional client base of an alternatives firm. Building out a fixed income replacement sales force that speaks to clients in a language that they are used to speaking in -- necessary ingredient to scale this and not just pick around the edges.

資本形成。我們不僅需要繼續擴大高淨值客戶覆蓋範圍，如果我們要服務固定收益替代產品，也就是所謂的私人投資級產品，那麼銷售方式和客戶群實際上與另類投資公司的傳統客戶群完全不同。建立一支固定收益替代產品銷售團隊，用客戶習慣的語言與他們溝通－這是擴大規模的必要條件，而不是只在邊緣地帶進行選擇。

Finally, new products and product creation are the heart of financial services. If I go back and look at the beginning of my 40-year career now, levered loans, high-yield bonds, ETFs, securitized product either did not exist or in their infancy. We take for granted these 4 products as completely mainstream and dominant products, but we should not be naive to think that they are going to be the products that dominate 15 years from now. Clients and high-net-worth individuals are going to move out of public equities. I do not believe they are going to move into 10-year locked private partnerships. I believe they're going to move into things that are more hybrid. Hybrid, again, is the midpoint between debt and equity.

最後，新產品和產品創新是金融服務的核心。如果我回顧我40年職業生涯的初期，槓桿貸款、高收益債券、ETF和證券化產品要么不存在，要么還處於起步階段。我們理所當然地認為這四種產品是完全主流和主導的產品，但我們不應天真地認為它們會在15年後佔據主導地位。客戶和高淨值人士將會撤出公開上市股票。我不認為他們會轉向10年鎖定型私募合夥企業。我相信他們會轉向更混合型的產品。混合型，再次強調，是債務和權益的中間點。

Tends to offer clients non-binary outcomes while still providing attractive rates of return. The product set here, while large for us, is immature for the entire industry. And I think you will see this year, introductions of new products with risk-rewards and liquidity requirements and partnerships that our industry has not seen before. I know that we, and our peer group, are hard at work trying to meet the needs of our investors. And I, truthfully could not be more excited about where we sit in this ecosystem.

傾向於為客戶提供非二元化的結果，同時仍提供具有吸引力的回報率。雖然我們擁有豐富的產品組合，但對於整個產業而言，它們還不夠成熟。我認為今年您將會看到一些新產品的推出，這些產品的風險回報、流動性要求以及合作夥伴關係，都是我們行業前所未有的。我知道，我們和我們的同行都在努力滿足投資者的需求。說實話，我對我們在這個生態系統中的地位感到無比興奮。

We are beginning to talk about our original 5-year plan in hindsight. Martin and Scott will provide some context that we are well on our way and confident of meeting the objectives that we put out in our 5-year plan. We are spending 2024 positioning ourselves to take advantage of the next new trends. The growth will be there going forward, but it will not look like or feel like the growth of the past. It will come differently, but no less -- I'm no less optimistic.

我們開始回顧最初的五年計劃。馬丁和史考特會介紹一些背景訊息，顯示我們進展順利，並且有信心實現五年計畫中提出的目標。我們將在2024年做好準備，以抓住下一個新趨勢。未來的成長仍將持續，但看起來和感覺上不會像過去的成長。成長方式會有所不同，但不會減弱——我依然保持樂觀。

Finally, we're looking forward to a full Investor Day. And with us, you know the definition of full means long, in October of this year. And Martin and Noah will provide you details.

最後，我們期待今年十月的投資者日活動。屆時，您將真正了解「完整」的定義，即「長遠」。 Martin 和 Noah 將為您提供詳細資訊。

With that, I'll turn it over to Scott.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給史考特。

Thanks, Marc. Echoing Marc's sentiment. We entered 2023 focused squarely on executing the growth plan we set forth, and we achieved those goals. Both our asset management and retirement services business proved resilient and often opportunistic as we navigated an uncertain investing backdrop, a changing rate paradigm and an evolving financial ecosystem.

謝謝，馬克。我和馬克的想法一致。進入2023年，我們專注於執行既定的成長計劃，並且實現了這些目標。在不確定的投資環境、不斷變化的利率模式和不斷發展的金融生態系統中，我們的資產管理和退休服務業務都展現了韌性，並且常常抓住機會。

One thing that stayed constant, though, was our commitment to delivering excess return per unit of risk for our clients. Investment performance across our product suite was strong, with particularly robust returns in certain yields and hybrid strategies. For example, our direct origination portfolio appreciated 20% over the full year, while our hybrid value portfolio, credit strategies and Accord funds all returned more than 15% in 2023.

然而，我們始終如一地致力於為客戶提供單位風險超額回報。我們所有產品組合的投資績效均表現強勁，部分收益型產品和混合型策略的回報尤為強勁。例如，我們的直接發起型投資組合全年上漲20%，而我們的混合價值型投資組合、信貸策略和Accord基金在2023年的回報率均超過15%。

In our PE business, our flagship fund performance remains very solid, with Fund IX generating a gross IRR of 32% and 22% net life to-date through year-end. Importantly, we've been able to generate these attractive returns while prioritizing senior secured, investment grade credit quality and a "purchase price matters" investment philosophy.

在我們的私募股權業務中，我們的旗艦基金業績依然穩健，截至年底，基金IX的總內部收益率（IRR）達到32%，淨壽命（NEW LIMITED）達到22%。重要的是，我們在創造如此誘人的回報的同時，也優先考慮優先擔保、投資級信貸品質以及「購買價格至上」的投資理念。

Off the back of this strong investment performance, we're seeing growing demand for our investment solutions in the marketplace. We raised $44 billion of third-party capital in 2023, an annual record when excluding flagship PE activity, reflecting the increasing breadth of our product suite. Athene's organic inflows continued to reach new heights, totaling $63 billion in 2023, driven by strong secular tailwinds and leading market share. Approximately $23 billion or 35% of Athene's inflows were supported by continued growth through third-party sidecar capital.

由於強勁的投資業績，我們看到市場對我們投資解決方案的需求日益增長。 2023年，我們籌集了440億美元的第三方資本，創下年度紀錄（不包括旗艦私募股權投資活動），這反映出我們產品組合的日益豐富。在強勁的長期利好因素和領先的市場份額的推動下，Athene的自然流入資金繼續創下新高，2023年總額達630億美元。約230億美元（佔Athene流入資金的35%）的資金來自第三方Sidecar資本的持續成長。

All together, organic inflows totaled $107 billion across the platform during the year. As we look to 2024, we expect momentum across all avenues of capital formation to continue. In our third-party asset management business, we expect to raise a record $50 billion of capital, including annual fundraising records from both the institutional and global wealth channels. Coupled with the $70 billion of expected inflows from Athene, we expect to raise approximately $120 billion of capital this year organically, which would represent an increase of 20% on a comparable basis excluding flagship PE.

全年平台內有機資金流入總計1,070億美元。展望2024年，我們預期所有資本形成管道的動能都將持續。在第三方資產管理業務方面，我們預計募集資金將達到創紀錄的500億美元，其中包括機構和全球財富管道的年度募資記錄。加上Athene的700億美元預期流入，我們預計今年有機資金流入將達到約1200億美元，這意味著在不包括旗艦私募股權投資的可比基礎上增長20%。

In a higher interest rate backdrop and with lingering impacts of the denominator effect on traditional private equity allocations, institutional investor focus has pivoted to asset classes that offer current income, inflation protection and access to areas of secular growth, namely credit, infrastructure and sustainability. We believe we're well positioned to capture this demand with our direct lending, asset-backed finance, opportunistic credit and infrastructure equity strategies currently in the market in addition to our first-time Clean Transition equity fund.

在利率上升的背景下，以及分母效應對傳統私募股權配置的持續影響，機構投資者的關注點已轉向能夠提供當期收益、通膨保護以及投資長期增長領域機會的資產類別，例如信貸、基礎設施和可持續性。我們相信，憑藉我們目前在市場上的直接貸款、資產支持融資、機會信貸和基礎設施股權策略，以及我們首次推出的清潔轉型股票基金，我們有能力滿足這一需求。

We're also focused on building upon the success we've had with third-party insurers last year who entrusted us with $13 billion of capital, and view this as an important client segment as we continue to scale our third-party credit platform. Overall, we've entered 2024 with a lot of momentum and expect a very strong first quarter for institutional fundraising.

我們也致力於鞏固去年與第三方保險公司合作的成功經驗，他們為我們提供了130億美元的資金。隨著我們繼續擴展第三方信貸平台，我們將視其為重要的客戶群。整體而言，我們以強勁的勢頭邁入2024年，預計第一季機構融資將非常強勁。

Turning to Global Wealth. We closed out a transformative year for the business from launching new products, expanding distribution and educating the marketplace on the benefits of alternative assets. We raised over $8 billion of capital from this channel in 2023, up more than 30% from 2022 levels, and expect to grow off that base in 2024 despite not having a flagship private equity fund in the market. We believe our growing suite of semi-liquid perpetual products is important to that success, with a few to highlight in particular.

轉向全球財富。我們迎來了業務轉型的一年，推出了新產品，擴大了分銷管道，並向市場宣傳了另類資產的優勢。 2023年，我們透過這項管道籌集了超過80億美元的資金，較2022年的水準成長了30%以上。儘管目前市場上還沒有旗艦私募股權基金，但我們預計2024年仍將在此基礎上成長。我們相信，我們不斷成長的半流動性永續產品系列對這一成功至關重要，其中幾款產品尤其值得關注。

We've seen steadily growing inflows for Apollo Debt Solutions, the non-traded BDC we manage, which totaled $875 million in the fourth quarter, in addition to approximately $345 million for January 1 subscriptions, a recent monthly record. These strong inflows follow industry-leading investment performance, with Class A shares delivering an approximate 16% net return for 2023 as well as expanding distribution, with ADS now live on 5 global wirehouse platforms and 60-plus selling agreements in place with independent advisers.

我們管理的非交易型債券託管公司 (BDC) Apollo Debt Solutions 的資金流入穩步增長，第四季度總額達 8.75 億美元，此外，1 月 1 日認購資金約 3.45 億美元，創下近期月度紀錄。強勁的資金流入源於行業領先的投資業績：A 類股票在 2023 年實現了約 16% 的淨回報率，同時分銷渠道不斷擴大，ADS 現已在 5 個全球經紀商平台上線，並與 60 多個獨立顧問簽訂了銷售協議。

Looking forward, we're focused on expanding our private credit offering from corporate direct lending to asset-backed finance, which we believe will provide global wealth investors more fulsome and diversified access to our proprietary asset origination capabilities.

展望未來，我們致力於將私人信貸服務從企業直接貸款擴展到資產支持融資，我們相信這將為全球財富投資者提供更全面、更多樣化的途徑來利用我們的專有資產發起能力。

Additionally, we're pleased with the growth we've seen in AAA, our innovative core equity replacement vehicle. Inflows from global wealth investors totaled $1.5 billion in 2023, though weighted towards the second half of the year.

此外，我們對創新核心股權置換工具AAA的成長感到欣慰。 2023年，來自全球財富投資者的資金流入總額達15億美元，但主要集中在下半年。

Looking ahead, we're focused on expanding shelf space to additional key distributors in the U.S. and Europe as well as launching additional points of access to reach different parts of the retail market.

展望未來，我們專注於擴大美國和歐洲其他主要分銷商的貨架空間，並推出更多接入點以覆蓋零售市場的不同部分。

And lastly, Apollo Infrastructure Company recently launched in November to capture growing demand for private infrastructure assets. We believe the company offers differentiated access to the full spectrum of our infra platform investing across sectors and the capital structure. Initial feedback from RIAs has been positive, so far, and AIC is on track to expand distribution more broadly over the course of this year.

最後，阿波羅基礎設施​​公司 (Apollo Infrastructure Company) 於 11 月成立，旨在滿足日益增長的私人基礎設施資產需求。我們相信，該公司將為投資者提供差異化的途徑，讓他們能夠充分利用我們基礎設施平台的各項投資，涵蓋跨產業和跨資本結構。到目前為止，來自註冊投資機構 (RIA) 的初步反饋良好，AIC 預計將在今年進一步擴大分銷範圍。

Turning to investment activity. We had an active year of capital deployment totaling approximately $150 billion in 2023. Looking forward, we expect many of the same themes that informed our investment pipeline last year to remain pertinent in 2024, a shrinking global banking industry, lack of public market liquidity and the need for structured financing alternatives, among others. With $58 billion of dry powder at year-end, we're well equipped to capitalize on this robust opportunity set.

談到投資活動。 2023年，我們資本配置活躍，總額約1,500億美元。展望未來，我們預計，去年投資計畫中的許多主題在2024年仍將具有現實意義，例如全球銀行業萎縮、公開市場流動性不足以及對結構化融資替代方案的需求等等。截至年底，我們擁有580億美元的現金儲備，足以讓我們充分掌握這項強勁的投資機會。

Relatively, debt origination volume totaled almost $100 billion in 2023, as Marc said, including $30 billion in the fourth quarter alone. It's worth mentioning that about half of this volume in both the fourth quarter and full year originated from our ecosystem of 16 proprietary platforms. Over the next couple of years, we're focused on reaching our $150 billion debt target, origination debt target, that we first laid out at Investor Day. To reach that target, scaling our origination platform volume is essential and should encompass around 50% of that longer-term goal. We think we can achieve this platform volume goal by scaling our existing portfolio, especially through some of the larger platforms like Atlas and MidCap and mid-sized platforms like Wheels and Eliant.

相對而言，正如馬克所說，2023 年的債務發放總額接近 1,000 億美元，其中光是第四季就有 300 億美元。值得一提的是，第四季和全年約有一半的發放量來自我們由 16 個專有平台組成的生態系統。在接下來的幾年裡，我們致力於實現我們在投資者日首次提出的 1500 億美元的債務目標，即發放債務目標。為了實現這一目標，擴大我們的發放平台規模至關重要，應該佔這一長期目標的 50% 左右。我們認為，透過擴大現有投資組合，特別是透過一些大型平台（如 Atlas 和 MidCap）以及中型平台（如 Wheels 和 Eliant），我們能夠實現這一平台規模目標。

Importantly, growth in debt origination volume has helped fuel our Capital Solutions business. In 2023, more than 80% of Capital Solutions fees were debt related, up from only 55% in 2021. Our growing high-grade alpha business is one of the important contributors to this fee mix shift, which generated approximately $10 billion of volume over the full year. In the fourth quarter specifically, we announced 3 transactions with repeat borrowers, Air France, Concord and Vonovia, showcasing the power of incumbency for large-scale structured investment-grade financing demand.

重要的是，債務發放量的成長助力了我們資本解決方案業務的發展。 2023年，超過80%的資本解決方案費用與債務相關，而2021年這一比例僅為55%。我們不斷成長的高等級阿爾法業務是這項費用結構轉變的重要貢獻者之一，該業務全年創造了約100億美元的交易量。具體而言，在第四季度，我們宣布了與法國航空、Concord和Vonovia這三家重複借款人的交易，展現了在職人員在滿足大規模結構化投資級融資需求方面所發揮的強大作用。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Martin to go through our financials.

因此，我將把電話轉給馬丁來處理我們的財務狀況。

Great. Thank you, Scott. And good morning, everyone.

太好了。謝謝你，斯科特。大家早安。

So as demonstrated by our results, 2023 was a very successful year of growth and execution for Apollo. We delivered on the financial targets that we laid out more than a year ago despite operating in a vastly different macro environment. In the asset management business, we achieved our 25% FRE growth target through fee revenue growth of more than 20%, coupled with decelerating expense growth, which drove the 200 basis points of margin expansion.

因此，正如我們的業績所顯示的，2023年是阿波羅在成長和執行上非常成功的一年。儘管宏觀環境截然不同，我們仍然實現了一年多前所訂定的財務目標。在資產管理業務方面，我們透過手續費收入超過20%的成長，以及費用成長放緩，實現了25%的FRE成長目標，這推動了利潤率成長200個基點。

In retirement services, we grew SRE by 26%. As Noah mentioned, you'll note a new presentation this quarter, on Page 10 of the earnings release, to separate SRE excluding notable items, which this quarter is $748 million or 141 basis points of net spread, from the difference between actual alts returns and the 11% long-term expectation, which this quarter is $132 million or 25 basis points of net spread. This change in presentation reflects both where the industry is moving to and is being required to move to, as a presentation format. Importantly, we still continue to manage the portfolio expecting the same 11% long-term returns.

在退休服務領域，我們的SRE成長了26%。正如Noah所提到的，您會注意到本季度財報第10頁採用了新的列報方式，將不包括重要項目的SRE（本季度為7.48億美元，即141個基點的淨利差）與實際另類投資回報與11%的長期預期之間的差額（本季度為1.32億美元，即25個基點的淨利差。這種列報方式的變化既反映了產業的發展方向，也反映了產業在列報格式上的要求。重要的是，我們仍繼續管理投資組合，預期長期報酬率仍為11%。

On this basis, our net spread, excluding notable items, for the year was 144 basis points. Considering our long-term expectations for alternatives returns, our net spread would be an additional 21 basis points higher and, combined, 30 basis points higher in 2023 versus 2022.

在此基礎上，扣除重大項目後，我們本年度的淨利差為144個基點。考慮到我們對另類投資報酬率的長期預期，2023年的淨利差將比2022年再增加21個基點，合計增加30個基點。

Assisted by higher rates, this increase was driven by record organic growth, a favorable deployment backdrop and higher floating-rate income. With these strong results across the business, we expect to exceed our stated goal of doubling our total earnings to $5.5 billion by 2026. And we expect a mid-teens-plus compound earnings growth trajectory over the next few years. Executing on our plan for 2024 is the next important milestone to achieving that target.

在費率上漲的推動下，這一增長得益於創紀錄的有機增長、有利的部署環境以及更高的浮動利率收入。憑藉整個業務的強勁業績，我們預計將超額完成既定目標，即到2026年將總收益翻一番，達到55億美元。我們預計未來幾年的複合收益成長率將達到15%以上。執行2024年計畫是實現這一目標的下一個重要里程碑。

Before I get into the forward look, I'd like to discuss a few puts and takes in our fourth quarter results that will help form a better view of our run rate earnings power. On management fees: Management fees declined modestly quarter-over-quarter due to Fund X catch-up fees of approximately $25 million earned in the third quarter.

在展望未來之前，我想先討論一下我們第四季業績中的一些利弊，這將有助於我們更好地理解我們的獲利能力。關於管理費：由於第三季X基金獲得了約2,500萬美元的補繳費，管理費較上季略有下降。

Athene's alternatives portfolio returned to 6.5% annualized in the fourth quarter, below our long-term expectation of 11%, with strong performance by the strategic origination platforms partially offset by other investments held outside AAA.

Athene 的另類投資組合在第四季度的年化回報率回升至 6.5%，低於我們長期預期的 11%，其中戰略發起平台的強勁表現被 AAA 之外持有的其他投資部分抵消。

Our operating tax rate benefited from large deductions related to employee stock compensation due to a higher share price as well as onetime benefits related to Athene's redomicile, and new corporate tax legislation in Bermuda in December. Going forward, we expect our effective tax rate to remain approximately 20% over the long term, subject to quarterly variability.

我們的營業稅率受惠於股價上漲帶來的員工股票薪酬相關大額扣除，以及與 Athene 公司遷址相關的一次性福利，以及 12 月百慕達新出台的企業稅法。展望未來，我們預計有效稅率將長期維持在 20% 左右，但會受到季度波動的影響。

And then lastly, Athene's cost of funds in the third quarter included a 17 basis point benefit from 2 items that we previously adjusted out as notable items. Q4 also included the full year costs of a new performance fee, which amounted to 7 basis points of costs in Q4. Combining these items provides a more appropriate comparison of the quarter-over-quarter change in cost of funds, which including these adjustments was similar to the change in fixed income returns for the quarter.

最後，Athene 第三季的資金成本包含了我們先前調整為顯著項目的兩項17個基點的收益。第四季還包含了一項新的績效費的全年成本，這在第四季相當於7個基點的成本。將這些項目合併起來，可以更準確地比較資金成本的環比變化，計入這些調整後，其變化與本季固定收益回報的變化相似。

So turning to our FRE outlook. We expect 15% to 20% growth, as Marc communicated. I'll walk through the key building blocks. Excluding $45 million of cyclical catch-up fees we earned in 2023 related to our flagship PE fund raise Fund X, we expect low- to mid-teens fee revenue growth in 2024 primarily driven by increasing management fees and fee-related performance fees. We expect management fee growth to be supported by the [$120 billion] of total organic inflows Scott highlighted as well as solid levels of capital deployment, further supported by $46 billion of fee-eligible AUM not yet earning management fees.

那麼，談談我們的FRE展望。正如Marc所說，我們預期成長率為15%至20%。我將詳細介紹關鍵的構成要素。扣除我們在2023年獲得的與旗艦私募股權基金X募集相關的4500萬美元週期性補繳費用，我們預計2024年的費用收入增長率將達到15%至15%左右，這主要得益於管理費和費用相關績效費的增長。我們預計，管理費的成長將受到Scott強調的[1,200億美元]總有機流入以及穩健的資本配置水準的支持，此外，460億美元符合費用資格且尚未賺取管理費的資產管理規模也將進一步支持這一成長。

For Capital Solutions, we expect another strong year of fee revenue generation currently similar to 2023 levels. The revenue from this business has grown approximately 80% in 2 years and has already exceeded our 5-year target.

對於資本解決方案，我們預計費用收入將再次強勁成長，與2023年的水平基本持平。該業務的收入在兩年內增長了約80%，並超額完成了我們的五年目標。

For expenses, we estimate our growth rate in total fee-related expenses will moderate this year to a low double-digit level. We added approximately 350 people to our total head count in 2023, at the asset manager, with approximately half the net new hires located in North America and Europe and the other half in Mumbai. We expect very targeted head count growth this year in our business, with a continued focus on growing our India team.

就費用而言，我們預計今年總費用相關費用的成長率將放緩至較低的兩位數水準。 2023年，我們在資產管理公司的員工總數增加了約350人，其中約一半的淨新增員工位於北美和歐洲，另一半位於孟買。我們預計今年我們的業務將實現非常有針對性的員工成長，並將繼續專注於擴大我們的印度團隊。

As the pace of growth in our head count declines, we should experience a commensurate favorable slowdown in the pace of non-comp expense growth. Combining this expense outlook with a solid revenue growth picture, we expect to derive an additional 100 basis points improvement in our FRE margin to approximately 57 basis points this year, on a path to 60%-plus by 2026.

隨著員工人數成長速度的放緩，非應收支出的成長速度也應會隨之放緩。結合這項支出前景和穩健的收入成長前景，我們預計今年的毛利率將進一步提升100個基點，達到約57個基點，並有望在2026年達到60%以上。

Moving to Retirement Services. We expect to generate low double-digit growth in SRE this year based on a few underlying criteria. In terms of basis, the growth outlook is built upon the exclusion of any notables and assumes an 11% return on Athene's alternatives portfolio in line with historical experience, adjusting for the approximate $70 million of excess earnings we earned in 2023 on assets related to the ADIP buydowns and the Venerable recapture, both as we previously communicated; [$70 billion] of organic inflows funded with existing capital resources, including third-party sidecar capital; and net spread, excluding any notable items and assuming an 11% return on alts of between 160 and 165 basis points, based on the current forward rate curve which implies approximately 5 rate cuts by the end of 2024.

轉向退休服務。基於一些基本標準，我們預計今年的退休服務業務將實現低兩位數成長。就基準而言，成長前景建立在剔除任何顯著項目的基礎上，並假設 Athene 另類投資組合的回報率與歷史經驗一致，達到 11%，並根據我們在 2023 年獲得的與 ADIP 收購和 Venerable 收回相關的資產約 7,000 萬美元的超額收益（如我們之前所述）；[700 億美元]由現有資本資源（包括第三方附屬資本）資助的有機流入；以及淨利差，剔除任何顯著項目，並假設另類投資組合的回報率為 11%，介於 160 至 165 個基點之間，基於當前的遠期利率曲線，這意味著到 2024 年底將有大約 5 次降息。

As it relates to interest rates and sensitivity. Athene has had a long-standing and intentional allocation to floating-rate securities while remaining duration matched. Holding floaters has and will continue to serve a range of strategic purposes, including assisting with asset-liability matching, enabling offensive positioning within the asset portfolio during periods of market stress and cushioning it against any elevated surrenders. With the prospect of a Fed easing cycle on the horizon, we have reduced the amount of net floating-rate assets to $25 billion at year-end and we expect it to further decline to $20 billion by the end of the first quarter.

這與利率和敏感度有關。 Athene 長期以來一直有意配置浮動利率證券，同時保持久期匹配。持有浮動利率證券過去和現在都具有一系列戰略意義，包括協助資產負債匹配、在市場承壓時期在資產組合中保持進攻性配置，以及在出現高額退保風險時提供緩衝。鑑於聯準會寬鬆週期即將到來，我們已將年底的淨浮動利率資產規模降至 250 億美元，並預計到第一季末將進一步降至 200 億美元。

Turning to principal investing briefly. We expect our PII earnings stream to be below our multiyear average target of $1 per share in 2024, with clear dependencies on both the public and private markets for monetizations and outcomes.

簡單談談本金投資。我們預計，到2024年，我們的PII收益流將低於我們多年來每股1美元的平均目標，其貨幣化和結果明顯依賴於公開市場和私人市場。

On capital allocation, our priorities remain unchanged. We're focused on investing in our existing capabilities to drive continued organic growth rather than making strategic investments. We also expect to continue immunizing regular-way employee stock comp grants and to begin taking steps to reduce our share count to 600 million shares by the end of 2026. We have also announced an increase in the annual dividend by 7.5% to $1.85 per share, beginning with the first quarter of 2024, implying a dividend yield of 1.8%, slightly above the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 of 1.5%.

在資本配置方面，我們的重點保持不變。我們專注於投資現有能力，以推動持續的有機成長，而非進行策略性投資。我們也預計將繼續免除常規員工股票獎勵，並開始採取措施，在2026年底將公司股票數量減少至6億股。我們也宣布，從2024年第一季開始，年度股息將調高7.5%，至每股1.85美元，這意味著股息殖利率為1.8%，略高於標準普爾500指數1.5%的平均股息殖利率。

Finally, our GAAP earnings totaled $2.9 billion for the quarter and $5.1 billion for the full year, retaining our eligibility for S&P 500 index inclusion.

最後，我們的 GAAP 收益本季總計 29 億美元，全年總計 51 億美元，保留了納入標準普爾 500 指數的資格。

And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

說完這些，我會將電話轉回接線生進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today is coming from Bill Katz of TD Cowen.

（操作員指示）今天的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Bill Katz。

So Marc, a lot of really good big picture type of views as you sort of think through the new order here. One thing I sort of picked up on your comments was the fact that you thought that there could be an opening in the 401(k) market. I'm just sort of wondering if you could expand your views there. And then maybe underneath that, can you talk a little bit about how you're sort of seeing the competitive landscape developing in the wealth management channel as everyone sort of jockeying for position?

所以，馬克，當您在思考新秩序時，提出了很多非常好的宏觀視角。我從您的評論中註意到，您認為401(k)市場可能存在機會。我想知道您能否進一步闡述您的看法。然後，能否在此基礎上，談談您如何看待財富管理管道中競爭格局的演變，因為每個人都在爭奪市場地位？

So you are absolutely correct, Bill. I do see an opening in the 401(k) market. The 401(k) market is not limited by legal restriction. It's limited by a risk mentality as a result of substantial litigation over a long period of time, but I think we're seeing a stabilization, particularly as the set -- suite of private products is no longer all high fee, high carry, locked away in funds.

所以你說得完全正確，比爾。我確實看到了401(k)市場的機會。 401(k)市場不受法律限制。它受到長期大量訴訟導致的風險心態的限制，但我認為我們正在看到一種穩定，尤其是當一系列私人產品不再全是高費用、高收益、鎖定在基金中的時候。

You're watching the first baby steps as fiduciary managers in 401(k) begin to mix-in private into their, heretofore, public solutions simply to get better outcomes and better diversification. The other thing we're seeing is we're seeing a focus on guaranteed lifetime income or guaranteed income, where annuities are going into target date funds and for the same purpose.

你們正在見證401(k)信託管理人邁出的第一步，他們開始將私人資產融入先前的公共解決方案中，以獲得更好的收益和更佳的分散化。我們也看到，人們越來越關注保證終身收入或保證收入，年金也開始進入目標日期基金，目的也是如此。

I believe we're going to see a continued migration. I don't have the number in front of me, but my memory is kind of plus $1 billion this year in 401(k) and fiduciary retirement products. I think again we're at the very beginning of this, just like I feel we're at the very beginning of wealth. And I'll pivot to wealth. Much of what's happened in our industry, whether it is regulation, which has been a negative, or it's been the opening of the high net worth market, which has been a positive, has for the most part benefited the large multiproduct firms.

我相信我們會看到持續的遷移。我手頭上沒有確切的數字，但我記得今年401(k)和信託退休產品的投資額大約在10億美元以上。我再次認為，我們正處於這一進程的開端，就像我感覺我們正處於財富的開端一樣。接下來我將轉向財富。我們行業發生的許多事情，無論是負面的監管，還是積極的高淨值市場開放，在很大程度上都使大型多產品公司受益。

To serve the wealth channel, to serve RIA channels, to serve a global market, this is not a small exercise. This is 150 people in the field, product, infrastructure. It does not make sense to do for one product but only if you are firmly committed in moving your business and you see a future of a multiproduct variety. And so I think that there are a handful of firms who have a right to play in this market and have made the investment. It's not 2 and I don't think it's more than 10. This market is growing.

服務財富管道、服務RIA管道、服務全球市場，這並非易事。這需要150名員工投入該領域、產品和基礎設施建設。專注於單一產品是沒有意義的，只有當你堅定地致力於業務發展，並看到多元化產品的未來時，才有意義。因此，我認為只有少數幾家公司有資格在這個市場上競爭，並且已經進行了投資。不只兩家，我想也不會超過十家。這個市場正在成長。

We are at the infancy of it, and each of the firms is kind of coming at this in their own way. I think there are good and bad that's being done. I'll just give you our way. We are focused on taking in money from this market not as quickly as we can but as quickly as we can deploy. Ultimately, producing good returns, not having extreme volatility, thinking long and hard about whether we offer this market binary outcome products, is how we're going to approach it. We want to position ourselves as the innovator in this marketplace rather than the largest in this marketplace, and I think we're -- we've made good progress in doing it. We have a lot of work to do, but I remain very optimistic.

我們正處於起步階段，每家公司都在以自己的方式推進這項進程。我認為目前的做法有好有壞。我只想說說我們的做法。我們專注於從這個市場賺錢，不是盡可能快，而是盡可能快地部署。最終，我們將致力於創造良好的回報，避免極端波動，並認真考慮是否在這個市場上提供二元結果產品。我們希望將自己定位為這個市場的創新者，而不是最大的市場，我認為我們已經在這方面取得了良好的進展。我們還有很多工作要做，但我仍然非常樂觀。

The next question is coming from Glenn Schorr of Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

One small one, one big one, if I could. The small one is if you could dive into the return differential in alternatives of your 11% over time versus what you've actually been experiencing lately. You talk about good performance on the origination platforms. When I look at your performance across the board ex European Principal Finance, everything is really good, so I'm curious what's falling short within the Athene portfolio. And then the bigger...

如果可以的話，我先提一個小問題，一個大問題。小問題是，您能否深入分析一下，您11%的長期另類投資報酬率與您近期實際報酬率之間的差異。您提到了發起平台的良好表現。我查看了除歐洲本金金融（European Principal Finance）之外的您的整體表現，發現一切都非常好，所以我很好奇Athene投資組合中有哪些不足之處。然後是更大的問題…

Let me hit that quickly. And then I -- we will not -- you -- I'll get -- you get your chance to ask the larger question, in violation of the operator's policy, but think of it -- so the easiest way to see it: AAA, which represents all the platforms and all the investments, basically was circa 10% this year, not quite the 11% that we hoped for but generally good direction given that we are not focused on the kind of beta of the public markets and leverage the tech and AI and things like that.

讓我快速地講一下。然後，我——我們不會——你——我會——你有機會提出更大的問題，這違反了運營商的政策，但想想看——最簡單的理解方式是：代表所有平台和所有投資的AAA，今年基本上在10%左右，雖然沒有達到我們希望的11%，但總體來說這是一個好的方向，因為我們不專注於公開市場的貝塔值，而是利用人工智能、人工智能之類的東西。

The difference between that and the Athene performance is a drag on certain insurance stakes. So Athene holds, outside of AAA, its investment in Challenger, its investment in Catalina, its investment in Venerable. We had less appreciation this year in those stakes versus the overall portfolio, and that's the difference, Bill (sic) [Glenn]. There's really no other differences of note.

這與Athene業績的差異，拖累了某些保險類股票。因此，除了AAA之外，Athene還持有其在Challenger、Catalina和Venerable的投資。今年這些股票的增值幅度低於整體投資組合，這就是差異所在，Bill（原文如此）[Glenn]。其他方面確實沒有值得注意的差異。

All right, cool. And then my violation part B is you said $200 billion to $250 billion. I kind of remember $100 billion to $150 billion, getting to $150 billion. I know you were at a $30 billion run rate and I know you bought Atlas but curious how you bridge that extended and larger origination scale...

好的，很酷。然後我的B部分違規是你說的2000億到2500億美元。我記得好像是1000億到1500億美元，最後達到1500億美元。我知道你的營運規模是300億美元，而且我知道你收購了Atlas，但我好奇你是如何銜接這麼大規模的發行規模的…

So we -- when we set out our 5-year targets a little over 2 years ago, we -- the 5-year target was to get to $150 billion of origination. I believe that we are -- and that would be "2026." I believe that we are well on our way to achieving that target. $30 billion of run rate and really high-quality run rate in the fourth quarter was very encouraging. The plans for this year also call for continued tick-up in origination volumes.

所以，兩年多前我們訂定五年目標時，目標是將貸款發放額度提升至1,500億美元。我相信我們現在已經實現了，也就是在2026年。我相信我們正穩步朝著這個目標邁進。第四季300億美元的貸款發放額度，以及真正高品質的貸款發放額度，非常令人鼓舞。今年的計畫也要求貸款發放額度繼續提升。

Origination is the lifeblood of our business. When we step back and we start thinking about the next 5 years, which would carry us 5 years from today, to power the business to where we want to be, if we want to serve the fixed income replacement market, essentially if we want to go to institutions and offer them private investment grade in place of their current fixed income allocation, we need to originate more. If we want to play a role in allowing high-net-worth investors and institutional investors to pivot out of active management of equity -- I believe they're going to pivot into hybrid. We need to originate more hybrid.

發起是我們業務的命脈。當我們回顧過去，開始思考未來五年——也就是從今天開始的五年——如何推動業務達到我們期望的目標時，如果我們想要服務於固定收益替代市場，本質上，如果我們想要面向機構投資者，為他們提供私募投資級產品來取代他們目前的固定收益配置，我們就需要發起更多產品。如果我們想要幫助高淨值投資者和機構投資者擺脫主動型股票管理——我相信他們會轉向混合型管理。我們需要發起更多混合型產品。

And fundamentally if we're going to grow our business, it is limited not so much by the amount of capital raised. And I respect that capital raising is a very important part of this. And sometimes it's easy and sometimes it's difficult, but in the long run, a firm that offers excess return, which all of the alternatives firms do, we are only as good as our capacity to generate investments that produce excess return per unit of risk. It is the lifeblood of our business. And we are very focused on moving past the $150 billion original 5-year goal and ramping that to as close to $250 billion, which I believe is a realistic target going out.

從根本上講，如果我們要發展業務，融資規模並非是限制我們業務成長的關鍵因素。我承認，融資是其中非常重要的一環。融資有時很容易，有時很難，但從長遠來看，一家提供超額回報的公司（所有另類投資公司都提供這種回報）的實力取決於我們能否在單位風險下產生超額回報。這是我們業務的命脈。我們非常專注於超越最初設定的1500億美元5年目標，並將其提升至接近2500億美元，我相信這是一個切實可行的目標。

More to come -- so in October of this year, at Investor Day, but this is job one and two for our firm to sustain growth. And truly for every firm, Bill (sic) [Glenn].

未來還會有更多——例如今年十月的投資者日，但這是我們公司保持成長的首要和次要任務。比爾（原文如此）[格倫]，對每一家公司都是如此。

The next question is coming from Alex Blostein of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·布洛斯坦。

So Marc, just to build on that. You talked about origination being the lifeblood of the business fairly consistently for quite some time now, which all makes sense. As you look to grow this business further, scale and accelerate origination capabilities, what sort of needs to happen for you guys to get to those numbers? Is it more coverage? Is it more boots on the ground? Is it more capital, which I guess some of that will come in through AAA? Is it more product? Is it more acquisition of origination platforms? So I'm just trying to kind of again think about what's within your control to really accelerate this growth further.

那麼Marc，在此基礎上再進一步。你一直在強調，發起業務是公司業務的命脈，這一點很有道理。當你希望進一步發展業務、擴大規模並加速發起能力時，你需要做些什麼才能達到這些目標？是擴大覆蓋範圍嗎？是增加實地人員嗎？是增加資本嗎？我猜其中一些資金會透過AAA級信用評級獲得？是增加產品嗎？是增加對發起平台的收購嗎？所以我只是想再次思考一下，在你們的掌控範圍內，哪些方面能夠真正加速成長。

So some of it is more boots on the ground and building out what we call high-grade alpha or high-grade solutions. And that's been, as Scott highlighted, a very good business and a very unique product for us. And one, quite frankly, that doesn't make a lot of sense across asset management unless you are both an agent and a principal.

所以，其中一部分是更深入地投入，建構我們所謂的高等級阿爾法收益或高等級解決方案。正如斯科特所強調的那樣，這對我們來說是一項非常好的業務，也是一個非常獨特的產品。坦白說，除非你既是代理人又是委託人，否則這在資產管理領域沒有太大意義。

We built this business to power Athene. We then decided for good and valid reasons that we should be fully diversified, so we began to power third-party insurers because, after all, we want 25% of everything and 100% of nothing. And now we also discover that institutions, as they are evaluating how to improve their performance in their traditionally public-only investment-grade bond portfolio, are willing to begin to move toward private, so long as it is at the same rating. This is happening with extraordinary speed in the conversation in the consulting world and with the innovators, and I believe it's going to continue to happen.

我們創建這項業務是為了支持Athene。後來，我們出於充分且合理的理由，決定應該實現完全多元化，因此我們開始為第三方保險公司提供支持，因為畢竟，我們想要什麼都佔25%，什麼都不佔。現在，我們也發現，機構在評估如何提升其傳統上只投資於公開市場的投資等級債券投資組合的績效時，願意開始轉向私募，只要評級保持不變。在諮詢界和創新者之間，這種情況正在以驚人的速度發生，我相信這種情況還會持續下去。

In terms of where the volume comes from, yes, there will be more people with more coverage. But for us, we have 16 origination platforms. Only a couple of them are at scale. This is about growing the origination platforms. We are -- and I don't think we need a 17th, although that may result, but that is not the goal. We are not short opportunity. It's now about focus and execution and simply delivering.

就交易量來源而言，是的，會有更多的人參與，覆蓋範圍也會擴大。但對我們來說，我們有16個發起平台，其中只有幾個是規模化的。這是為了擴大發起平台。而且我認為我們不需要第17個，雖然這可能會導致這種情況，但這不是我們的目標。我們並不缺乏機會。現在的關鍵在於專注、執行和交付。

I mean, even a $20 billion origination platform or $22 billion, which is MidCap, it still has lots of room to grow. MidCap is way too U.S., just building out their European business, adding products. They have the capacity to double that business. Atlas has the capacity to double their business. Eliant, more than double their business. We have to think -- we have to actually scale what we have and execute, and we're doing it in a very supportive environment.

我的意思是，即使是規模200億美元或220億美元的中型企業發起平台，仍有很大的成長空間。中型企業太美國化了，他們只是在拓展歐洲業務，增加產品。他們有能力將業務翻一番。 Atlas有能力將其業務翻一番。 Eliant的業務翻倍。我們必須思考——我們必須真正擴大現有規模並付諸行動，而我們正在一個非常支持性的環境中做到這一點。

Recall that we are the beneficiary of regulatory choice around the globe where regulators have decided that they prefer more of the investment -- more of the debt capital in markets to come from the investor marketplace than from the banking system. That does not mean the banking system doesn't play a vital role or that it will shrink. It simply means that credit growth, which typically follows GDP -- I believe that much of that growth is going to occur in the investment marketplace. Some of that will incur in pure-beta products, investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds that we are just not all that interested in, but we're talking about a massively large market where we are, even at our size, a small participant.

回想一下，我們是全球監管選擇的受益者，監管機構決定，他們更傾向於將更多的投資——市場上更多的債務資本——來自投資者市場，而不是銀行系統。這並不意味著銀行系統不再發揮關鍵作用，或它會萎縮。這只是意味著信貸成長（通常跟隨GDP成長）——我相信其中很大一部分將發生在投資市場。其中一些將出現在純貝塔產品、投資等級債券和高收益債券中，而我們對這些債券並不那麼感興趣，但我們談論的是一個龐大的市場，即使以我們的規模，我們也只是一個小小的參與者。

So I do the following math, Alex, and it's helpful. We have a $500 billion private credit business today. Somewhere between $150 billion and $200 billion of that is beta. For us to double our credit business, we have to double $300 billion. I like our chances of doing that over the next 5 years because the beta comes for free.

所以我做了以下計算，亞歷克斯，這很有幫助。我們目前的私人信貸業務規模為5000億美元。其中大約1500億到2000億美元是貝塔值。為了讓我們的信貸業務翻一番，我們必須將3000億美元翻倍。我相信我們在未來5年內實現這一目標的可能性很大，因為貝塔值是免費的。

The only thing I'd add there is, the other 50% not coming from our platforms comes from the Apollo system. We've put enormous time and energy over the last 12, 18 months really driving the origination, linking our various business units to be able to drive the sourcing capabilities to provide more debt originating from all the relationships we have across the variety of our businesses, our equity businesses, our hybrid businesses, our infra businesses. And that -- we're seeing that start to really come into effect, so we're only in the early innings of fully tapping that from an origination capability, so -- just a lot of momentum all around from all the different sources of origination.

我唯一想補充的是，另外50%並非來自我們平台的資金來自Apollo系統。在過去的12到18個月裡，我們投入了大量的時間和精力，真正推動了貸款的發放，將我們的各個業務部門連接起來，從而能夠提升融資能力，從我們與各種業務（包括股權業務、混合業務和基礎設施業務）建立的所有關係中提供更多貸款。而且，我們看到這些業務開始真正發揮作用，所以我們才剛開始充分利用貸款發放能力，所以，從各個不同的來源來看，我們都有巨大的發展勢頭。

The next question is coming from Patrick Davitt of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

My question is on the retirement services growth guide run rating at $80 billion in 4Q but guiding to $70 billion for 2024. So does that disconnect some restriction from available capital? Or are you just being conservative and the growth could actually continue to track from that higher 4Q run rate?

我的問題是，退休服務成長指南將第四季的營運預期定為800億美元，但將2024年的營運預期定為700億美元。那麼，這是否與可用資本的限制脫鉤了？還是您只是保守估計，實際成長可能會繼續沿著第四季度更高的營運預期發展？

I think you're hearing from us. In a week or 2, on the fixed income call, you'll hear from Jim Belardi. And if you look back in history, the team sitting in New York is a little more conservative than the team sitting out in Manhattan Beach, but I want to caution. This is not just about volume. We can generate all the volume that we want. And I'm going to encourage you to really look into how people are generating volume.

我想你們聽到的是我們的消息。一兩週後，在固定收益電話會議上，你們會聽到吉姆貝拉迪的演講。回顧歷史，你會發現紐約的團隊比曼哈頓海灘的團隊保守一些，但我想提醒大家。這不僅僅是交易量的問題。我們可以創造我們想要的所有交易量。我鼓勵你們認真研究一下人們是如何創造交易量的。

When you buy a secondary block of business, you're buying something that's degraded from a surrender charge point of view. I'm not sure that's good business. I'm not sure I can invest against that. I'm not sure I like the potential risk of that business. So we can do a victory lap by growing, but that's not the growth I want. We can also do a victory lap by growing 3-year MYGAs. That's going to feel great this year and next year and the following year, but all I'm doing is setting up a cliff that is ultimately going to fall off.

當你購買二級業務時，你購買的是從退保費用角度來看已經貶值的東西。我不確定這是否是好生意。我不確定我是否能承受這種風險。我不確定我是否喜歡這項業務的潛在風險。所以我們可以透過成長來慶祝勝利，但這不是我想要的成長。我們也可以透過成長3年期MYGA來慶祝勝利。這在今年、明年和後年都會感覺很棒，但我所做的只是在設置一個最終會掉下來的懸崖。

And I may not like the 3-year MYGA market 3 years from now. We are focused on high-grading the business that we do. I would rather do $70 billion of business that I really like than $80 billion or $85 billion of business. And I think, while it is -- while many of you are learning this business, we've been living in this business for 15 years and the headlines are just not -- are not what they seem.

三年後，我可能不再喜歡3年MYGA市場。我們專注於提升目前所從事的業務。我寧願做我真正喜歡的700億美元業務，而不是做800億或850億美元的業務。我認為，雖然你們很多人還在學習這個行業，但我們在這個行業已經摸爬滾打了15年，頭條新聞並非——並非表面看起來的那樣。

And this gets also into the guidance on SRE. We had an unbelievable 2023. Jim Belardi and team, Grant Kvalheim and team, I hope they're listening. They should be doing victory laps. We actually did what we say we do. We were not a current-period profit maximizer. We ended the year north of $12 billion of cash. We ended the year with a sizable treasury portfolio, which we almost never have. And we essentially high-graded the portfolio and built liquidity because we had already grown 25%.

這也牽涉到SRE的指引。我們度過了令人難以置信的2023年。我希望Jim Belardi和他的團隊，以及Grant Kvalheim和他的團隊，他們正在傾聽。他們應該慶祝勝利。我們確實做到了我們所說的話。我們並非追求當期利潤最大化。年底，我們的現金超過120億美元。年底，我們擁有一個相當可觀的國庫投資組合，幾乎是我們從未擁有過的。由於我們已經成長了25%，我們基本上對投資組合進行了高評級，並建立了流動性。

We have the opportunity, should Apollo, now the pressure is on Apollo, continue at the $30-plus billion run rate of origination, to actually do what we want to do, which is deploy into investment-grade and yielding private credit that locks in on a matched basis high spread. That will cushion a big chunk of what people would normally expect to fall off from rates.

如果阿波羅（現在面臨壓力）能夠繼續保持300多億美元的發行規模，我們就有機會真正實現我們想要的目標，那就是投資於投資級且收益豐厚的私人信貸，並以匹配的基準鎖定高利差。這將在很大程度上緩衝人們通常預期的利率下跌。

The other thing that happens rates up, rates down. In a rates up, we tend to go -- we tend to get a full benefit of that, but recall that, when rates are up, everything that we own is worth less. We lose flexibility in the portfolio. In a rates down, everything that we own is in gain position. We have massive flexibility in the portfolio.

另一件事是利率上升，利率下降。當利率上升時，我們往往會——我們往往會從中獲益，但請記住，當利率上升時，我們擁有的一切都會貶值。我們失去了投資組合的靈活性。利率下降時，我們擁有的一切都會獲利。我們的投資組合擁有巨大的靈活性。

We have the ability to rotate out of investment-grade corporates and into originated private investment grade. The pressure is not on Jim Belardi and Grant. The pressure is on us. We have to originate more of what they need. And recall that they don't want 100% of what we originate. They want 25% of everything, so for us to really scale their business and scale our third-party business comes back to origination. We need to originate more.

我們有能力從投資等級公司債轉向私募投資等級債券。壓力不在吉姆貝拉迪和格蘭特身上，而是在我們身上。我們必須發行更多他們需要的債券。記住，他們不會100%想要我們發行的債券。他們想要所有債券的25%，所以，要真正擴大他們的業務規模，以及擴大我們的第三方業務規模，就必須回歸到發行債券的環節。我們需要發行更多債券。

The next question is coming from Michael Brown of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的邁克爾布朗。

So the mantra for 2024, no new toys. How can we expect the capital allocation to progress over the next 2 or 3 years? And then specifically in 2024, any way to maybe put some guide rails around how the share buybacks could be utilized this year?

所以2024年的口號是「不搞新花樣」。未來兩三年，我們該如何預期資本配置的進展？具體到2024年，有沒有辦法為今年如何使用股票回購制定一些指引？

Michael, it's Martin, I'll -- so I addressed some of this in the -- in my comments. I think the priorities in terms of allocation, for us, are to grow Athene. And the benefit of growing Athene, including with the use of ADIP are numerous. And the earnings leverage from that is really beneficial. And some of which, we outlined at the Origination Day last October. It also grows AAA, all right, so that has a compounding impact on earnings.

邁克爾，我是馬丁，我之前在評論中提到過一些。我認為，就配置而言，我們的首要任務是發展雅典娜。發展雅典娜，包括使用 ADIP，有很多好處。由此產生的獲利槓桿確實很有利。其中一些，我們在去年 10 月的啟動日會議上已經概述過。它還能發展 AAA 級債券，所以這對收益有複合影響。

We want to -- we are -- as I mentioned, we don't see a lot of scope to invest in growing the business inorganically. And so that should be modest and very sort of targeted. We want to make sure that we're at least immunizing employee stock issuance, and so that's built into the plans. And then the ability to immunize stock and reduce the share count on a real basis is then dependent on realizations, really. That's the delta.

正如我之前提到的，我們想——我們確實想——在業務成長方面，我們認為投資空間不大。所以這應該是一個適度且有針對性的投資。我們希望確保至少能對員工股票發行免疫，這已經納入了計劃。而能否對股票免疫並實際減少股票數量，實際上取決於變現。這就是增量。

And so as realizations pick up, we'll have more flexibility to do that. And that really depends on what the markets -- what receptivity there is in the markets for exits, particularly in our private equity business. So that's how we sort of connect it all together. Whichever way you look at it, the returns -- the marginal return on a dollar of capital -- whether you're buying back stock or whether you're investing in Athene are both attractive. So they're both good choices. But that's how we try to balance it. But I would think, in terms of time frame, think of it as a 3-year plan, but we need more sort of near-term realizations to be leaning into that, so more back ended than front ended.

因此，隨著變現的加速，我們將擁有更大的靈活性。這實際上取決於市場——市場對退出的接受度，尤其是在我們的私募股權業務中。這就是我們將所有因素連結起來的方式。無論你怎麼看，回報——每一美元資本的邊際回報——無論是回購股票還是投資Athene，都是很有吸引力的。所以它們都是不錯的選擇。但這就是我們試圖平衡的方式。但我認為，就時間框架而言，可以將其視為三年計劃，但我們需要更多近期變現來支持它，所以更多的是後端而不是前端。

The next question is coming from Brennan Hawken of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的布倫南·霍肯。

Martin, I'd like to maybe try and square your comments around the cost of funds in the fourth quarter and some of the adjustments you flagged to Slide 12. Is the one piece that's not one of the notable items the impact of the new performance fee? And given that performance fees are something I'd think you guys would be collecting on a regular basis, why is it that we should be adjusting that out? Can you please just maybe help us understand that impact a little bit more?

馬丁，我想試著理清你關於第四季度資金成本以及你在投影片12中提到的一些調整的意見。那項沒有被列入值得注意的項目是新績效費的影響嗎？考慮到績效費是你們應該定期收取的，為什麼我們要調整它呢？你能不能幫我們更深入地了解這種影響？

So this is Marc. I'm going to give a conceptual and then Martin will address the specifics. If you look at history in our portfolio -- and this is not history of 1 year, but if you look over 15 years. Then you say, where have the vast majority of losses come from in the investment portfolio? They've come from the corporate IG book, the thing that everyone thinks is safe.

我是馬克。我先講一個概念，然後馬丁會講具體細節。如果你看看我們投資組合的歷史——這不是一年的歷史，而是15年的歷史。你會問，投資組合中絕大多數的損失來自哪裡？它們來自企業投資等級投資組合，也就是每個人都認為安全的東西。

And if we're -- if you think of that as like most investors, a lot of that is waived in based on rating and diversification and industry classifications. That no longer suffices. Athene has decided that it makes more sense to bonus the people who are managing portfolios for them, net of specific losses and net of specific impairments, which now include the corporate IG bond book. What we saw was it -- 100% of the charge for the change took place in 1 quarter, as opposed to spread over 4 quarters. Ultimately the belief is and the reason this was done is that this on a net basis should be a positive for Athene, but in the quarter it was taken, we're just calling it out so you know exactly why it was taken.

如果我們——如果你像大多數投資者一樣看待這個問題，你會發現很多費用是根據評級、多元化和行業分類而免除的。但這已不再足夠。 Athene 決定，向為其管理投資組合的人員發放獎金更合理，扣除特定損失和特定減損後，現在包括公司投資等級債券帳簿。我們看到的情況是——變更費用的 100% 在一個季度內發生，而不是分攤到 4 個季度。最終，我們相信，這樣做的原因是，從淨值來看，這應該對 Athene 有利，但在發生變更的季度，我們只是指出這一點，以便您確切了解變更的原因。

I think...

我認為...

Sorry, Martin...

對不起，馬丁…

I would only -- I would also connect it back to originations, right? So it's a tool to incentivize appropriate originations on a risk-adjusted after-credit-loss basis. And the math is pretty simple. The full charge of 7 bps was taken in 1 quarter, but think of it as an equivalent dollar amount performance-dependent taken over the course of the year. And if you adjust for that and the notables from Q3 -- and look at the change in sort of top line fixed-income income and cost of funds, they're right on top of each other on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

我只會——我還會把它和貸款發放聯繫起來，對吧？所以，這是一種激勵適當貸款發放的工具，基於風險調整後的信用損失率。計算起來很簡單。 7個基點的全額收費是在一個季度內收取的，但可以將其視為全年根據業績收取的等值美元金額。如果你根據這一點以及第三季的顯著數據進行調整——再看看固定收益收入和資金成本的變化，你會發現它們在季度環比上是相互疊加的。

The next question is coming from Ben Budish of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

I was wondering if you can give an update on ADIP specifically and then maybe speak a little bit more generally about sidecars. You identified it, I think, last year as one of your kind of strategic priorities going forward, so maybe a little more color on how you expect that opportunity to evolve and what we should see this year.

我想知道您能否具體介紹ADIP的最新情況，然後再概括地談談Sidecar。我記得您去年就把它列為未來的策略重點之一，所以能否再詳細談談您對這個機會的預期，以及我們今年應該看到什麼。

Sure. So ADIP 2 fundraising, going quite well. We expect to wrap it up this summer in the $4 billion to $5 billion range, so providing Athene the sidecar capital necessary for the next probably 2 years. So feeling really good about that. Part of what we're doing is just a big education campaign, right? This is not necessarily an intuitive product to investors, but once folks start to understand it, it's a pretty exciting product.

當然。 ADIP 2 的融資進展順利。我們預計今年夏天能籌集 40 億到 50 億美元的資金，這將為 Athene 未來兩年所需的資金提供必要的補充。我們對此感到非常高興。我們正在做的工作有一部分是開展一場大型的教育活動，對吧？對投資人來說，這不一定是一款直覺的產品，但一旦人們開始理解它，它就會是一款非常令人興奮的產品。

Yes. The color I would give in this -- and this is as you evaluate entering into this business. The reason we are successful raising sidecars. And people buy into the business pro rata with Athene and actually pay both Athene and Apollo fees for the privilege of doing retirement services business.

是的。我想說的是——這就是你評估進入這個行業的意義。我們成功提高Sidecars（側邊車）的原因。人們按比例購買Athene的業務，實際上他們同時支付Athene和Apollo的費用，以獲得從事退休服務業務的特權。

The reason this works is, they, the investors, have seen us over a very long period of time stick to a mantra of high cash-on-cash returns. The ability to produce north of 15% cash-on-cash returns growth in book value over that period of time and to step away from the market and to step away from kinds of transactions that, while would give us growth, but -- are not fundamentally good transactions is why we're trusted with this capital.

之所以有效，是因為投資人看到我們長期以來堅持高現金報酬率的理念。正是因為我們能夠在這段時間內實現帳面價值15%以上的現金回報率成長，並且遠離市場，遠離那些雖然能帶來成長，但本質上並非良性的交易，所以我們才被信任將這筆資金交給我們。

People will discover very quickly that this business done poorly is very capital intensive. This business done well is a great business, so I just step back to the big economics. It costs roughly $0.08 of capital for every dollar of growth. If you fund all $0.08 yourself, you can do the math as to how big you get and how much capital you need.

人們很快就會發現，如果做得不好，這項業務的資本密集程度非常高。如果做得好，這項業務就是一項偉大的業務，所以我只是回到宏觀經濟學。每成長一美元，大約需要0.08美元的資本。如果你自己承擔所有0.08美元，你就能算出你的規模有多大，以及你需要多少資本。

Roughly 2/3 of that $0.08 is funded by third parties, who, for -- pay us a fee for the privilege of funding because it, because it offers excess return per unit of risk and they are aligned with us. And they know that we will be good stewards of their capital. If firms do not produce high rates of return and do not make fundamentally good strategic choices, they will not be trusted with sidecars and that will be the difference between success and failure.

這0.08美元中大約有三分之二是由第三方提供的，他們為了獲得融資特權而向我們支付費用，因為這項服務能夠提供單位風險的超額回報，而且他們與我們保持一致。他們知道我們會妥善管理他們的資金。如果公司不能創造高回報率，並且不能做出從根本上來說良好的戰略選擇，他們就不會被信任擁有“邊車”，而這正是成功與失敗的區別所在。

The next question is coming from Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·賽普里斯。

I wanted to ask more broadly on the retail annuities market with aging demographics and the need for income. I was hoping you could speak to the market growth that you expect from annuities over the next 5 to 10 years. And what sort of enhancements might you be able to make to the product set and overall customer experience to perhaps unlock some additional growth and expand the customer set?

我想更廣泛地詢問一下，在人口老化和收入需求日益增長的背景下，零售年金市場的情況。我希望您能談談您預計未來5到10年年金市場的成長情況。您認為可以對產品組合和整體客戶體驗進行哪些改進，以釋放更多成長動力並擴大客戶群？

So the product set for annuities, if you look over a long period of time, has not evolved all that much. We entered the market for real a decade ago. And the changes that we made to the product in the context of our industry we're very substantial but in the context of financial service is not all that substantial.

所以，如果你從長遠來看，年金產品組合併沒有太大的變化。我們十年前才真正進入這個市場。就我們這個產業而言，我們對產品所做的改變非常重大，但就金融服務而言，改變並不大。

We stripped down many of the unused providers and we added it to rate and simplified the product and simplified the administration of the product, and it turns out consumers prefer more to less. That has allowed us, along with capital and good asset availability, to move from a new entrant to the market to the largest-ever year of annuity sales in 2023 and a leading market position.

我們精簡了許多未使用的供應商，並將其添加到費率中，簡化了產品，簡化了產品管理，事實證明，消費者更喜歡多而不是少。這讓我們憑藉資本和良好的資產可用性，從市場新進業者發展到2023年年金銷售額創歷史新高，並佔據了市場領先地位。

I think we will continue to see modest changes around the traditional product in terms of custom indices. And because the product, as you know, is not a straightforward you get a set rate, you actually get a percentage of a market's index performance, subject to a floor and investors like that mix of upside and downside.

我認為，在客製化指數方面，我們將繼續看到傳統產品出現溫和變化。如你所知，這類產品並非直接提供固定利率，而是根據市場指數表現的一定比例進行投資，並設定下限，投資人喜歡這種上漲和下跌的組合。

The holy grail of this business, in my opinion, is both simplification and a much simpler promise of guaranteed lifetime income. Currently, in annuity, has firms taking one significant risk. That's investment risk. When you move to guaranteed lifetime income, you're taking both investment risk and longevity risk. We have elected, to date, not to take substantial amounts of longevity risk in our portfolio, but like any marketplace, there is the opportunity to work with market participants who are on the other side of the longevity bet to hedge out that risk.

在我看來，這項業務的精髓在於簡化流程，以及更簡單地承諾終身收入保證。目前，年金業務中，公司承擔著一項重大風險，那就是投資風險。而當你轉向終身收入保證時，你既要承擔投資風險，又要承擔長壽風險。到目前為止，我們選擇不在我們的投資組合中承擔大量的長壽風險，但與任何市場一樣，我們有機會與押注長壽的對手方合作，以對沖這種風險。

Right now the cost of hedging that out would not allow for the distribution of a product that neutralized longevity risk in a commercial sale, but in a fiduciary sale, one is -- that is not through a channel that is commission payable. One could, in fact, offer guaranteed lifetime income and have the costs of a longevity hedge borne by commission.

目前，對沖成本不允許在商業銷售中分銷能夠中和長壽風險的產品，但在信託銷售中，人們可以——無需通過支付佣金的管道。事實上，人們可以提供有保障的終身收入，並讓佣金承擔長壽對沖的成本。

I think you will see a number of firms in our industry trial that this year. I think if we, as an industry, are successful in doing that, I think, we will open a different market. And a market that is potentially very large and very attractive that provides long-term capital but leaves us as an industry participant focused on the risk we want to take, which is investment risk, rather than being in a longevity risk business.

我想今年你會看到我們行業中有很多公司進行試點。如果我們這個行業能夠成功做到這一點，我想我們將開闢一個不同的市場。這個市場潛力巨大，極具吸引力，能夠提供長期資本，但作為行業參與者，我們專注於我們想要承擔的風險，也就是投資風險，而不是從事長壽風險業務。

The other is we think of this mostly in a U.S. context. Europe, I believe, is going to step back and evaluate how they have focused on this industry. There's been a 40% drop in the availability of guaranteed income in European markets, primarily linked toward regulatory change. This problem is also in Australia, the most successful retirement market in the world in terms of superannuation. They've spent a lot of time thinking about accumulation but very little time thinking about decumulation.

另一個問題是，我們主要從美國的角度來思考這個問題。我認為，歐洲將會退一步反思，評估他們對這個產業的關注程度。歐洲市場保障收入的可取得性下降了40%，這主要與監管變化有關。就退休金而言，澳洲是全球最成功的退休市場，但這個問題也同樣存在。他們花了很多時間思考退休金累積問題，卻很少考慮退休金減少的問題。

If you're interested, there's a treasury paper that's out talking about this. This is in Hong Kong. This is elsewhere in the world, so the ability to take what we've done in the U.S. and adjust for the local flavor and local regulation is one significant growth area. Growth in indices and the custom indices is another area. And finally, really cracking the code on guaranteed lifetime income, which is in its very early days, is a further potential growth area.

如果你有興趣的話，有一份財政部文件正在討論這個問題。這在香港，在世界其他地方也適用，因此，能夠借鑒我們在美國的經驗，並根據當地情況和法規進行調整，是一個重要的成長領域。指數和定制指數的成長是另一個領域。最後，真正破解終身收入保障的密碼，這方面目前還處於起步階段，也是另一個潛在的成長領域。

The next question is coming from Finian O'Shea of Wells Fargo Securities -- actually, my apologies. It looks like we have reached our allotted time for questions. I'll turn it back to Mr. Noah Gunn for closing comments.

下一個問題來自富國證券的菲尼安·奧謝（Finian O'Shea）——真的很抱歉。看來我們的提問時間已經到了。我把時間交還給諾亞·岡恩先生，請他做最後總結。

Great. Thanks for your help this morning, Donna. And thanks to everyone, for your interest and time this morning. If you have any questions or clarifications about anything discussed on today's call or our results, please feel free to reach out to us. And we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

太好了！唐娜，謝謝你今天早上的幫忙。也感謝大家今天上午的關注和時間。如果您對今天電話會議中討論的內容或我們的業績有任何疑問或需要澄清，請隨時與我們聯繫。我們期待下個季度再次與您溝通。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們，先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的活動到此結束。各位可以掛斷電話，享受接下來的一天。