Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Apollo Global Management's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加阿波羅全球管理公司2023年第一季業績電話會議。 （接線員指示）本次電話會議正在錄音中。

This call may contain forward-looking statements and projections, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to Apollo's most recent SEC filings for risk factors related to these statements. Apollo will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures during this conference, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business. These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in Apollo's earnings presentation, which is available on the company's website.

本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述和預測，這些陳述和預測不保證未來事件或績效。有關這些陳述的風險因素，請參閱阿波羅最近提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件。阿波羅將在本次電話會議上討論某些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標，管理層認為這些指標與評估公司財務績效相關。這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標已與阿波羅獲利報告中的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 資料進行核對，該報告可在公司網站上查閱。

Please also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Apollo fund.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成出售或招攬購買任何阿波羅基金權益的要約。

I will now turn the conference over to Noah Gunn, Global Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我將會議交給全球投資者關係主管 Noah Gunn。

Great. Thanks, Donna, and welcome again, everyone, to our call this morning. Earlier, we published our earnings release and financial supplement on the Investor Relations portion of our website.

太好了！謝謝，唐娜，歡迎大家再次參加我們今天早上的電話會議。早些時候，我們在網站的投資者關係版塊發布了我們的收益報告和財務補充資料。

First quarter results were strong and outperformed on a number of fronts, which we believe few others can say amid this backdrop of market volatility. We'll discuss further over the course of the call, but it's quite apparent that our purchase price matters approach is shining, allowing us to be very front-footed in executing our strategic objectives.

第一季業績強勁，在多個方面均超越預期，我們相信在當前市場動盪的背景下，很少有公司能做到這一點。我們將在電話會議中進一步討論，但顯而易見的是，我們「收購價格至上」的策略非常出色，使我們能夠在執行策略目標方面佔據先機。

The proof is in the numbers. We reported record quarterly FRE of $397 million or $0.67 per share and normalized SRE of $811 million or $1.36 per share which together increased a remarkable 45% year-over-year. This powerful combination of fee and spread-related earnings, coupled with principal investing income, drove normalized adjusted net income of $942 or $1.58 per share in the first quarter, up 18% year-over-year, which is indicative of the type of consistent, compound earnings growth we believe we can deliver to our shareholders.

數字就是明證。我們報告的季度常規收益（FRE）達到創紀錄的3.97億美元，即每股0.67美元；標準化常規收益（SRE）達到8.11億美元，即每股1.36美元，兩者合計同比增長45%。手續費及利差相關收益的強勁組合，加上本金投資收益，推動第一季標準化調整後淨利達到9.42億美元，即每股1.58美元，年增18%。這表明我們相信我們能夠為股東帶來持續的複合獲利成長。

Joining me this morning to discuss our results in further detail are Marc Rowan, CEO; Scott Kleinman, Co-President; and Martin Kelly, CFO. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Marc.

今天上午，執行長馬克羅文 (Marc Rowan)、聯合總裁斯科特克萊曼 (Scott Kleinman) 和財務長馬丁凱利 (Martin Kelly) 將與我一起詳細討論我們的業績。現在，我將把電話交給馬克。

Thank you, Noah, and good morning to all. Noah started down the path that I'd like to pick up on and really talk about the two different bets we have made versus our industry.

謝謝你，諾亞，大家早安。諾亞開始講我想講的話題，並認真談談我們針對產業所做的兩種不同押注。

The first is an investment style bet. If you look across our $600 billion of AUM, you never have to worry about what strategy we're following. Every strategy is purchase price matters. Purchase price matters is grounded in facts, it's grounded in cash flow, it's grounded in business prospects.

首先是投資風格押注。如果你看看我們6000億美元的資產管理規模，你永遠不必擔心我們遵循的是什麼策略。每一種策略都以購買價格為重。購買價格基於事實，基於現金流，基於商業前景。

In the equity business, which Scott will talk about, it manifests itself in a maniacal focus on low purchase price for the quality of business that we are buying. In the credit market, it manifests itself at being top of the capital structure senior secured and floating rate.

在史考特即將談到的股權業務中，它體現在對優質企業的低價收購的狂熱追求中。在信貸市場中，它體現在優先擔保和浮動利率的資本結構頂端。

If I tick through just this quarter's results and how purchase price matters plays into this amid this market dislocation and volatility, in our credit business, corporate credit, up 3%; structured credit, up 3%; direct origination, up 5%. I hosted a webcast earlier this month for ADS and Earl Hunt, 98% of the book senior secured, floating rate, originated in '22 and in '23, great years in which to originate.

如果我只回顧本季的業績，以及在市場混亂和波動的情況下，收購價格在其中扮演的角色，那麼在我們的信貸業務中，企業信貸增長了3%；結構性信貸增長了3%；直接貸款增長了5%。本月早些時候，我主持了一場ADS和Earl Hunt的網路直播，其中98%的優先擔保浮動利率貸款是在2022年和2023年發行的，這兩個年份是貸款發行的好時機。

If I turn to our equity business. Private equity, up 5%; European nonperforming loans through EPF, up 2%. Literally, across the board against a backdrop of instability, purchase price matters has paid off. It is really hard not to chase the hot dot of momentum and liquidity, especially when it goes on for so long against a backdrop of money printing, but that, in fact, is what we did and why we are where we are today.

再來說說我們的股權業務。私募股權上漲了5%；透過公積金（EPF）處理的歐洲不良貸款上漲了2%。實際上，在動盪的背景下，收購價格的重要性得到了全面的體現。很難不去追逐動量和流動性的熱點，尤其是在印鈔的背景下，這種情況持續了這麼長時間。但事實上，這正是我們所做的，也是我們今天能走到今天的原因。

The second bet I'd like to talk about goes back to our Investor Day in October 2021. We told you at the time that we were going to make a different bet than almost everyone else in our industry. And if you look across our industry, some have bet on real estate equity, some have bet on infrastructure, some have bet on subordinated debt in BDCs, some have bet on growth.

我想談的第二個押注可以追溯到我們2021年10月的投資者日。當時我們告訴大家，我們將做出與業內幾乎所有公司都不同的押注。縱觀整個產業，有些人押注房地產股權，有些人押注基礎設施，有些人押注BDC的次級債務，有些人押注成長。

None of these in and of themselves are bad strategies. And in fact, some of our competitors execute against these strategies quite well. But these are not our strategies. The bet we told you at the time that we were making, if you looked at the vast majority of our AUM growth was on fixed income replacement. Think of that as private investment grade.

這些策略本身都不錯。事實上，我們的一些競爭對手也很好地執行了這些策略。但這些不是我們的策略。我們當時告訴過你們，我們的押注是，如果你仔細觀察就會發現，我們資產管理規模（AUM）成長的絕大部分都來自固定收益替代產品。你可以將其視為私人投資級產品。

We made a really big push into private IG. Difference in private credit is how not is how private credit is normally talked about, which normally means levered loans and below investment grade. We are the investment-grade version. This quarter, our yield AUM was some $440 billion. And while that sounds quite large, and it is the largest of the private credit businesses, this is against the backdrop of a $40 trillion market that we estimate that we would otherwise be looking at. We are simply not significant in the market. And this is the best news. We are large, but not significant. That's a position I like to work from.

我們大力進軍私人投資等級市場。私人信貸與通常所說的私人信貸不同，後者通常指槓桿貸款，且評級低於投資等級。而我們屬於投資等級。本季度，我們的收益型資產管理規模約為4,400億美元。雖然這聽起來相當龐大，而且是私人信貸業務中規模最大的，但這是以40兆美元的市場為背景的，我們估計，否則我們就會關注這個市場。我們在市場上的影響力並不大。這對我們來說是最好的消息。我們規模很大，但影響力不大。這正是我喜歡的定位。

Think about who we compete with and who we don't compete with. The press likes to frame private credit as an enemy of the banking system. In fact, if we think about our businesses and how we've positioned our private IG franchise, we want what the banks don't want and vice versa. So let me articulate that very clearly because I think it is important that it come out.

想想我們與誰競爭，不與誰競爭。媒體喜歡把私人信貸描繪成銀行體系的敵人。事實上，如果我們反思我們的業務以及我們對私人投資等級金融業務的定位，就會發現我們想要的是銀行不想要的，反之亦然。所以，讓我把這一點說得更清楚些，因為我認為這一點很重要。

At the end of the day, we want the asset. We actually don't want the client because we are not prepared to cross-sell the client anything. We can't sell them equity, we can't sell them M&A, we can't sell them FX, derivatives, hedging, payments or credit cards. Ironically, for much of the banking system, the banking system wants the client, but not the asset, particularly in a world of market stress, where many banks, particularly regional banks are rethinking their strategy. I like where we sit in the food chain, I like what we're focused on, and I believe we are very well positioned.

歸根究底，我們想要的是資產。實際上，我們想要的不是客戶，因為我們不準備向客戶交叉銷售任何東西。我們不能向他們出售股權，不能向他們出售併購產品，也不能向他們出售外匯、衍生性商品、對沖、付款或信用卡。諷刺的是，對於大部分銀行系統來說，銀行系統想要的是客戶，而不是資產，尤其是在市場壓力之下，許多銀行，尤其是區域性銀行，正在重新思考其策略。我喜歡我們在食物鏈中的位置，我喜歡我們專注的領域，我相信我們處於非常有利的位置。

In a time of market instability against a backdrop of a good entry point for credit at higher rates, the world is looking for safe yield. Insurance companies, including our own insurance company, Athene and Athora need safe yield. Competitive insurance companies need safe yield. Japanese banks need safe yield. Pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds need safe yield. Safe yield is, as I suggested, a potential replacement for fixed income, particularly publicly traded IG. Again, I like the hand we're playing and I like the bet we've made.

在市場不穩定、信貸利率較高且切入點良好的背景下，全球都在尋求安全利益。包括我們自己的保險公司Athene和Athora在內的保險公司都需要安全效益。競爭性保險公司需要安全收益。日本銀行需要安全收益。退休基金、捐贈基金和主權財富基金都需要安全收益。正如我所說，安全收益是固定收益產品（尤其是公開交易的投資等級債券）的潛在替代品。再次強調，我看好我們正在做的這手牌，也看好我們所做的賭注。

If I turn now to the two businesses. We told you for asset management that 2023 was going to be a year of execution and a recognition and achieving of all of the investments that we have made in prior years.

現在我來談談這兩項業務。我們之前說過，對於資產管理而言，2023年將是執行的一年，也是對我們前幾年所有投資的認可和實現的一年。

In addition, we projected that we would grow some 25% year-over-year in FRE. I believe we will meet that metric. We are well on our track to doing it. We experienced $57 billion of inflows in the quarter, and we're on track to far surpass last year's $130 billion. I would expect a record or as like [Scrip] says near record of asset management fundraising in Q2. I believe purchase price matters resonates now more than ever, and I expect a very strong year.

此外，我們預計FRE的年成長率約為25%。我相信我們能夠達到這個目標。我們正朝著這個目標穩步前進。本季我們獲得了570億美元的資金流入，並且預計將遠遠超過去年的1300億美元。我預計第二季資產管理融資額將創下紀錄，或像[Scrip]所說的那樣接近紀錄。我相信，現在比以往任何時候都更需要專注於購買價格，我預計今年將是業績強勁的一年。

Equally interesting is capital deployment. Those who have followed closely over the past few weeks will see just how active we've been in the buyout business, a place we've had not had tremendous amounts of activity during the run-up in purchase price. Scott will walk you through the market activity. We have been equally busy in credit as this is a perfect entry point for what we do in private IG.

同樣有趣的是資本配置。過去幾週密切關注我們的人會發現，我們在收購業務方面非常活躍，而在收購價格上漲期間，我們在這方面的活動並不多。 Scott 將帶您了解市場動態。我們在信貸業務方面也同樣忙碌，因為這是我們在私人投資等級投資基金 (IG) 業務的理想切入點。

An important part of our growth today, and in fact, as I've said previously, a limiter of our growth is our capacity to originate assets that offer excess return per unit of risk. We do this both directly in terms of direct lending but we also do it via platforms. Think of platforms as businesses whose only business is the production of credit. Today, we have 16 platforms. Three of the largest are Midcap, Wheels and Atlas.

我們目前成長的一個重要組成部分，事實上，正如我之前所說，也是我們成長的限制因素，是我們能否創造單位風險超額報酬的資產。我們既透過直接貸款的方式直接做到這一點，也透過平台做到這一點。平台就像一個企業，其唯一的業務就是創造信用。目前，我們擁有16個平台。其中最大的三個是Midcap、Wheels和Atlas。

Just to give you a feel for how business is progressing. MidCap did $3.5 billion of originations year-to-date. Normally, MidCap would produce about a 14% ROE. For the most recent period of time, MidCap's ROE approaches 17%.

只是想讓你了解一下業務進度。 MidCap 今年迄今已完成 35 億美元的融資。通常情況下，MidCap 的淨資產收益率 (ROE) 約為 14%。最近一段時間，MidCap 的淨資產收益率接近 17%。

Wheels, which is our fleet lessor, has experienced no credit losses since the acquisition of Donlen. Again, wheels would normally produce about a 13% to 15% ROE. In the most recent period of time, Wheels ROE is approaching 19%.

我們的車隊租賃公司Wheels自收購Donlen以來沒有任何信用損失。同樣，Wheels的股本回報率通常約為13%至15%。最近一段時間，Wheels的股本回報率接近19%。

Atlas integration well underway, I appreciate whoever wrote Atlas hugs versus Atlas shrugs. And in fact, I think the timing for the purchase of Atlas could not have been better. What is better than being a lender to other lenders during a time of market stress from a position of secured IG top of the capital structure, floating rate with wide spreads. We have a tremendous amount of work to do there, but we are very excited about what we've seen today.

Atlas 整合進展順利，我很欣賞那些寫「Atlas 擁抱」和「Atlas 聳肩」的人。事實上，我認為收購 Atlas 的時機再好不過了。在市場承壓時期，還有什麼比以擔保投資等級債券（位於資本結構頂端）、浮動利率和寬利差的身份向其他貸款機構放款更棒的呢？我們在這方面還有很多工作要做，但我們對今天的成果感到非常興奮。

In short, the origination business is better because of the market stress. We are filling in where the market now is suffering certain lapses, and we are earning higher spread. We are able to underwrite with a negative credit mindset. We are able to protect the downside, most of what we're doing is top of the capital structured floating rate and senior secured.

簡而言之，由於市場壓力，發起業務表現較好。我們正在填補市場目前存在的某些缺陷，並賺取更高的利差。我們能夠以負面信用心態承保。我們能夠防範下行風險，目前主要從事資本結構化浮動利率和優先擔保貸款。

Let me turn a bit to our Capital Solutions business. In prior quarters, I've given you a little bit of our philosophy. We want generally in capital solutions, particularly in our debt business 25% of everything and 100% of nothing. As we have become an increasingly large originator and an increasingly diverse originator, this business is becoming a recurring business. The vast majority of this business and the growth I expect in the future will be around this philosophy of we want 25% of everything and 100% of nothing. We are becoming people's favorite stop to fill out what they need in terms of yield in their IG book without compromising credit during a period of market stress and concerned about the economic future.

讓我稍微談談我們的資本解決方案業務。在前幾個季度，我已經稍微介紹了一下我們的理念。在資本解決方案業務中，尤其是在債務業務中，我們通常希望獲得25%的收益，而100%的收益則為零。隨著我們作為發起機構的規模越來越大，業務也越來越多元化，這項業務正在成為一項經常性業務。我預計這項業務的絕大部分以及未來的成長都將圍繞著「我們希望獲得25%的收益，而100%的收益則為零」這一理念。在市場承壓、經濟前景堪憂的時期，我們正成為人們最青睞的平台，讓他們能夠滿足投資等級投資組合（IG）的收益需求，同時又不損害信用。

Save the best for last, retirement services and Athene. 2022 was the best year in Athene's history, record inflows in earnings. 2023, I expect to be better and has started off even stronger. Every metric worked in Q1. Normalized spread of 160 basis points, new business priced very attractively, leading market share, very strong sidecar capital formation, which we will update you as we have further closings.

把最好的留到最後，退休服務和Athene。 2022年是Athene歷史上最好的一年，獲利流入創紀錄。我預計2023年會更好，而且開局更強勁。第一季各項指標都表現良好。 160個基點的正常化利差，新業務定價極具吸引力，市場份額領先，Sidecar資本形成非常強勁，我們將在有更多交易成交時向您通報。

In short, inflows were $12 billion in the first quarter, roughly about the same as 2022. And I see this a little bit as the golden age of annuities. Consumers simply prefer 5% to 2%. It's not more complicated than that.

簡而言之，第一季流入資金為120億美元，大致與2022年持平。我認為這有點像是年金的黃金時代。消費者只是更喜歡5%到2%的利率。事情並沒有比這更複雜。

We built and have continued to build our international insurance relationships. We now have three significant reinsurance relationships in the Japanese market, and I expect that to be five before year-end. I expect that we will generate some $5 billion a year annually of flow reinsurance from this market. And I expect this year in terms of flow reinsurance to be the single best year in our history, somewhere between $9 billion and $10 billion of flow.

我們已建立並持續發展國際保險關係。目前，我們在日本市場有三個重要的再保險合作夥伴，我預計年底前將達到五家。我預計我們每年將從這個市場獲得約50億美元的流量再保險收入。我預計，就流量再保險而言，今年將是我們歷史上最好的一年，流量將在90億美元至100億美元之間。

Pension activity and pension buyout activity with higher rates is ramping. We recently announced an $8 billion solution for a blue chip client, and I expect second quarter inflows at Athene to be north of $17 billion. In short, we're on track to exceed last year's record annual inflows of $48 billion.

退休金活動和高利率退休金收購活動正在升溫。我們最近宣布了一項針對藍籌客戶的80億美元解決方案，我預計Athene第二季的資金流入將超過170億美元。簡而言之，我們預計將超過去年創紀錄的480億美元年度資金流入。

For the quarter, normalized spread was $811 million. This was, as we've said internally a bit of a goldilock scenario. Spreads were wider than expected, rates were higher than expected. We kept more business in-house, meaning that we did not give as much to the sidecar. That will correct itself in the second half of the year but will result in higher earnings for the year.

本季，正常化利差為8.11億美元。正如我們內部所說，這有點像「金髮姑娘情境」。利差比預期大，利率也高於預期。我們將更多業務留在內部，這意味著我們沒有把太多資金投入「側車」業務。這種情況將在下半年得到糾正，但會帶來全年收益的成長。

Atlas was a net positive. In short, it all worked. In addition, as I'm sure Martin will walk through, conservative reserving methodology led to positive LDTI adjustments.

Atlas 的淨收益為正。簡而言之，一切都奏效了。此外，我相信 Martin 會詳細解釋，保守的準備金計算方法帶來了積極的 LDTI 調整。

I think as we step back, we should not multiply $811 million by 4. But relative to the 20% growth in SRE that we had projected at year-end, I would expect us to have upside to that target. That is even holding some $12.7 billion of cash at (inaudible). We positioned ourselves defensively. We positioned ourselves to take advantage of widespread, and now we are taking advantage of widespread. When your book is in good shape, you are able to take advantage of opportunities offered in the marketplace.

我認為，退一步來看，我們不應該把8.11億美元乘以4。但考慮到我們年底預測的SRE 20%的成長，我預期我們還有上升空間達到這個目標。這甚至意味著我們持有約127億美元的現金（聽不清楚）。我們採取了防禦性策略。我們的目標是利用廣泛的業務，現在我們正在利用它。當你的帳簿狀況良好時，你就能抓住市場上的機會。

Before I turn it over to Scott, and I'm anxious to turn it over to Scott because he has lots to say, I thought I would spend a minute on surrenders. Given the activity we've seen in the banking sector, we've received lots of questions about how this impacts or, in fact, does not impact the retirement services industry. Let me start with the punch line, this does not impact the retirement services industry. People who own annuities are saving for retirement. This is not money they think is accessible. When they do surrender or move it, they're typically moving to another policy. Otherwise, they incur tax burden and tax efficiency.

在把時間交給史考特之前——我很想交給他，因為他有很多話要說——我想先花點時間談談退保。鑑於我們在銀行業看到的活動，我們收到了很多關於退保如何影響或實際上不影響退休服務業的問題。讓我先說一個關鍵點：這不會影響退休服務業。擁有年金的人是為了退休而儲蓄。他們認為這筆錢無法隨時取用。當他們退保或轉移年金時，他們通常會轉向其他保單。否則，他們將承擔稅收負擔，影響稅收效率。

Finally, from our point of view, we run our book and we invest against long-term locked-in liabilities. 80% of our portfolio is nonsurrenderable or is protected by market value adjustments and surrender charges. This is not the first time we've confronted these issues. We've been doing this for a long time.

最後，從我們的角度來看，我們管理帳簿並針對長期鎖定負債進行投資。我們投資組合的80%是不可退保的，或是受到市值調整和退保費用的保護。這並非我們第一次遇到這些問題。我們長期以來一直如此。

In the materials that we put out this morning, I asked the team to put out a table that really goes through the four different types of outflows that we experienced in terms of our book. The first, and I'm referring to a table that is in the materials, the first is what we call maturity driven or contractual outflows. This is exactly what you -- what it sounds like.

在我們今天早上發布的資料中，我要求團隊製作一個表格，詳細列出我們在帳簿管理方面遇到的四種不同類型的資金流出。第一種，我指的是材料中的表格，是我們所謂的期限驅動型或合約型資金流出。這聽起來就是這樣的。

We enter into an FABN, it has a maturity. We originate a MIGA, it has a maturity. Those numbers are fully predictable, and you will see them from quarter-over-quarter. And I know when Athene does its deep dive call, you will see not just what has happened, but you will see Athene's projection for the next few quarters.

我們簽訂了FABN，它有到期期限。我們發起了MIGA，它有到期期限。這些數字完全可以預測，而且你會逐季看到它們。我知道，當Athene進行深入分析時，你不僅會看到已經發生的事情，還會看到Athene對未來幾季的預測。

The next few categories, what I'll call, policy-driven outflows or policyholder driven outflows, the largest of which is income-oriented withdrawals. Recall that for retirees, when they get to a certain age, they are required to take minimum amounts out of their policies. Those minimum amounts of their policies are, in fact, what come out on a planned and on a budgeted basis. We then are left with two other types of withdrawals, from those out of surrender charge where we would expect to see more withdrawals, and for those in surrender charge where we would expect to see very few withdrawals. In fact, that is what we are experiencing.

接下來的幾類，我稱之為保單驅動型資金流出或保單持有人驅動型資金流出，其中最大的是收入導向提款。回想一下，對於退休人員來說，當他們達到一定年齡時，他們必須從保單中提取最低金額。事實上，這些最低保單金額是按計劃和預算提取的。然後，我們又剩下另外兩種提款類型：一種是退保費用型資金流出，我們預期提款會比較多；另一種是退保費用型資金流出，我們預期提款會很少。事實上，這就是我們正在經歷的情況。

If I look at the weeks surrounding Silicon Valley Bank and the run on Silicon Valley Bank, I compare call center volume, surrender activity or any other form of activity, simply no change. This business continues to be very, very predictable. We are matched in terms of duration, we are matched in terms of interest rates. And it gives us the confidence to invest against these liabilities and earn spread, which we then lock in for long periods of time.

如果我回顧矽谷銀行擠兌事件前後幾週的情況，我會比較一下呼叫中心的業務量、退保活動或任何其他形式的活動，結果發現根本沒有變化。這項業務仍然非常非常可預測。我們在期限方面匹配，在利率方面也匹配。這讓我們有信心投資這些負債並賺取利差，然後我們會長期鎖定這些利差。

In short, 2023 for us is a year of execution and one where I believe both the strategy of focusing on fixed income replacement and the investment dynamic of purchase price matters will pay off.

簡而言之，2023 年對我們來說是執行的一年，我相信專注於固定收益替代的策略和購買價格事項的投資動態都將獲得回報。

For us, there is so much upside for executing the base business plan but the simple shorthand for what we intend to do in 2023 is no new toys. The bar is extremely high to do something new given the opportunity in front of us. The three original growth drivers origination, capital solutions and global wealth are well on track. Scott will detail the next 6. We're driving toward operating leverage this year. It is a key point of our focus. It occupies a lot of our mind share. We achieved a little of it this quarter, but there's more to come.

對我們來說，執行基本商業計劃有很多好處，但我們2023年的計劃簡而言之就是不玩新花樣。考慮到眼前的機會，嘗試新事物的門檻極高。三大成長動力——資產創收、資本解決方案和全球財富——目前進展順利。斯科特將詳細介紹接下來的六個成長動力。今年，我們正在努力提高營運槓桿。這是我們關注的重點，佔據了我們很大的精力。本季我們取得了一些進展，但未來還會有更多。

Today, we end the year or we end the quarter at $600 billion of AUM, $500 billion of that in yield and hybrid. Team is in great shape, momentum is good.

如今，我們今年或本季的資產管理規模已達6,000億美元，其中收益型和混合型資產管理規模達5,000億美元。團隊狀態良好，發展動能良好。

And with that, I'd like to pass it to Scott.

現在，我想把它傳遞給史考特。

Thanks, Marc. This is certainly an exciting time to be in our business. As you can see from our results, purchase price matters is succeeding in this environment as demonstrated by strong investment performance in several strategies including flagship private equity, direct origination and opportunistic credit portfolios. We believe we're one of the few firms who can play offense in these periods of uncertainty, which was quite clear by the level of deployment activity in the first quarter.

謝謝，馬克。對我們這個行業來說，這無疑是一個令人興奮的時刻。正如您從我們的業績中看到的，在這種環境下，「購買價格至關重要」的理念取得了成功，這體現在包括旗艦私募股權、直接發起和機會型信貸投資組合在內的多項策略的強勁投資表現上。我們相信，我們是少數幾家能夠在這些不確定時期積極進攻的公司之一，這一點從第一季的部署活動水平就可以看出。

We signed four private equity deals since our last earnings call, and our current pipeline of opportunities is about 3x a year ago and growing. We announced the first acquisition from our latest flagship fund just last fall. And since then, Fund X has invested or committed approximately $6 billion of capital.

自上次財報電話會議以來，我們簽署了四筆私募股權交易，目前的投資機會約為一年前的三倍，並且還在持續成長中。去年秋天，我們宣布了最新旗艦基金的首筆收購。自那時起，X基金已投資或承諾了約60億美元的資金。

The strength of our relationships and ability to structure complex financing solutions are really what set us apart when traditional funding sources are limited. For example, in the wake of market turmoil surrounding bank failures in March, we announced an $8 billion acquisition of chemical company Univar Solutions, an industry vertical in which we have long-standing expertise. And just last week, we announced the $5 billion acquisition of aluminum products manufacturer Arconic by our private equity funds.

在傳統融資管道受限的情況下，我們強大的客戶關係和建立複雜融資解決方案的能力，才是我們脫穎而出的關鍵。例如，在3月銀行倒閉引發市場動盪之後，我們宣布以80億美元收購化學公司Univar Solutions，而我們在該垂直行業擁有長期的專業經驗。就在上週，我們宣布旗下私募股權基金以50億美元收購鋁製品製造商Arconic。

Our hybrid business is also thriving in this backdrop of higher rates, earnings pressure and lack of appetite for bank-led syndicated credit. With corporates focused on deleveraging in the face of upcoming debt maturities and sponsors seeking exit alternatives amid tepid IPO markets, we're seeing increased demand for private market solutions via structured equity and credit. Accordingly, our investment pipeline for hybrid value is robust and we expect the deployment environment to remain attractive for quite some time.

在利率上升、獲利壓力加大以及銀行主導的銀團信貸需求不足的背景下，我們的混合型業務也蓬勃發展。面對即將到期的債務，企業專注於去槓桿，而保薦人在IPO市場低迷的情況下尋求退出方案，我們看到透過結構化股權和信貸進行私募市場投資的需求不斷增長。因此，我們在混合型價值投資方面的投資管道強勁，我們預計部署環境將在相當長的一段時間內保持吸引力。

With the dislocation we've seen in the banking sector over the past couple of months, we've been leaning into a wide range of investing opportunities across private credit platforms. We believe the breadth of our platform and the depth of our expertise puts us in a unique position to provide creative, flexible capital solutions to a range of borrowers, especially to those that may not be as widely serviced by traditional lenders.

鑑於過去幾個月銀行業經歷的混亂局面，我們一直在關注私人信貸平台上的各類投資機會。我們相信，我們平台的廣度和專業知識的深度，使我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠為各類借款人，尤其是那些可能尚未獲得傳統貸款機構廣泛服務的借款人，提供富有創意、靈活的資本解決方案。

We're able to generate a low double-digit yield for first lien debt backed by good collateral. As a recent example, we agreed to invest EUR 1 billion in a portfolio of high-quality assets controlled by Vonovia, a leading global residential real estate company, which provided a long-term cost-effective solution for the company.

我們能夠為擁有優質抵押品的優先留置權債務創造兩位數的收益率。例如，我們最近同意投資10億歐元，投資於由全球領先的住宅房地產公司Vonovia控制的優質資產組合，這為該公司提供了長期且經濟高效的解決方案。

Inclusive of this investment, we've originated over $18 billion of high-grade alpha transactions since the start of 2022. The pipeline of these types of high-quality attractive investments is already significant today. And longer term, we think the opportunity to gain market share is even greater and spans an even wider range of asset classes from corporate lending to all sorts of asset-backed finance.

包括此次投資在內，自2022年初以來，我們已發起超過180億美元的高等級阿爾法交易。目前，這類高品質、具吸引力的投資項目數量已相當可觀。從長遠來看，我們認為，獲得市場份額的機會更大，涵蓋範圍更廣的資產類別，從企業貸款到各種資產支持融資。

As it relates to fundraising trends, the long-term secular tailwinds driving growth in allocations to private markets remain intact, and momentum across our platform is strong. While recent market disruption has caused some observable shifts in market behavior, particularly with U.S. and European institutional investors. Investors based in the Middle East and Asia actually turned up their focus and seem to have viewed it as an opportune time to allocate capital. Individual investors were also quite level-headed and we saw no material increase in redemptions from global wealth offerings and a steady build in new capital in the first quarter.

就融資趨勢而言，推動私募市場配置成長的長期順風因素依然完好，我們整個平台的勢頭強勁。儘管近期市場動盪導致市場行為發生了一些明顯的變化，尤其是美國和歐洲的機構投資者。但中東和亞洲的投資者實際上已經將注意力轉向了這一領域，似乎將其視為配置資本的良機。個人投資者也相當冷靜，我們看到第一季全球財富管理產品的贖回量沒有大幅增加，新增資本穩定成長。

On the product level, fundraising trends in traditional private equity are still facing some headwinds, but with a total of approximately 30 commingled and perpetual capital vehicles expected to be in market this year. We still feel confident in our ability to raise more capital than we did in 2022. We expect second quarter inflows to be particularly robust given the line of sight we have to several sizable mandates and fund closes in the near-term pipeline as Marc mentioned.

在產品層面，傳統私募股權的融資趨勢仍面臨一些阻力，但預計今年市場上將有約30個混合型和永久性資本工具。我們仍有信心比2022年籌集更多資金。正如Marc所提到的，鑑於我們近期將有幾筆規模可觀的授權和基金募集，我們預計第二季的資金流入將尤其強勁。

On Fund X specifically, we've received total commitments of approximately $16 billion through the end of March. Throughout the marketing process, we've experienced solid demand from repeat investors off the back of very strong Fund IX performance, which appreciated 23% in 2022 and 8% in the first quarter.

具體到基金X，截至3月底，我們已收到約160億美元的認購承諾。在整個行銷過程中，由於基金IX表現強勁，我們感受到了來自回頭客的強勁需求，該基金在2022年上漲了23%，在第一季上漲了8%。

Looking forward, we have a great queue of investors in the final stages of documentation and currently expect total commitments to be in the low $20 billion range with a final close expected over summer. The amount of capital positions us with one of the largest funds in the industry and with the flexibility to lean into a range of interesting opportunities in today's markets.

展望未來，我們擁有眾多投資者，正處於文件審批的最後階段，目前預計總承諾金額將在200億美元左右，預計夏季最終完成。如此規模的資金使我們成為業界規模最大的基金之一，並能夠靈活地掌握當今市場上一系列引人入勝的機會。

We're also making meaningful progress on the six additional growth initiatives we highlighted in February. These six areas: AAA, Athene Altitude, third-party insurance, sidecars, clean transition and sponsor and secondary solutions position us to take -- tackle huge white space opportunities. These initiatives are natural extensions of our three key growth pillars and therefore, play to our strengths including complex product structuring, proprietary asset origination and, of course, generating excess return per unit of risk. As these businesses scale over the next few years, we expect our third-party fundraising will grow in size, diversity and consistency.

我們在二月強調的另外六項成長計畫也取得了有意義的進展。這六個領域：AAA、Athene Altitude、第三方保險、Sidecar、清潔過渡以及發起人和二級市場解決方案，使我們能夠抓住巨大的空白市場機會。這些計畫是我們三大關鍵成長支柱的自然延伸，因此能夠發揮我們的優勢，包括複雜的產品結構、自營資產發起，當然還有單位風險的超額報酬。隨著這些業務在未來幾年規模的擴大，我們預計我們的第三方融資將在規模、多樣性和一致性方面有所提升。

Here are some highlights. For AAA, an innovative core equity replacement vehicle, we're continuing to broaden distribution to both institutional and global wealth clients. In addition to the 40-plus approvals in place with independent distributors, we have a handful of new wirehouse and bank relationships geared to come online in the coming months, and conversations with family offices are also ramping up.

以下是一些亮點。對於創新的核心股權置換工具AAA，我們正在持續擴大面向機構和全球財富客戶的通路。除了已獲得40多家獨立分銷商的批准外，我們還與一些新的券商和銀行建立了合作關係，計劃在未來幾個月內上線，同時與家族辦公室的溝通也在加緊進行。

Just last week, we announced the launch of a Luxembourg-based product platform that provides individual investors in Europe, Asia and Latin America, access to two investment strategies, including AAA in their local currency with lower investment minimums than traditional alternative product offerings. The proposition of equity-like returns with downside protection is proving especially attractive in this highly volatile public market backdrop, and we remain very bullish on the long-term outlook for this fund.

就在上週，我們宣布推出一個位於盧森堡的產品平台，為歐洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲的個人投資者提供兩種投資策略，包括以當地貨幣投資的AAA級基金，其最低投資額低於傳統的另類產品。在當前高度波動的公開市場環境下，類似股票的回報加上下行保護的策略尤其具有吸引力，我們仍然非常看好該基金的長期前景。

For Athene Altitude, an innovative tax-deferred annuity wrap product, we've received positive initial feedback from several retail distribution partners. We have a few firms in late stages of due diligence and expect to launch the product more broadly in the coming months.

對於創新延稅年金產品 Athene Altitude，我們已收到多家零售分銷合作夥伴的正面初步回饋。目前，已有幾家公司處於盡職調查的後期階段，預計在未來幾個月內更廣泛地推出該產品。

Within clean transition, we recently announced the launch of Apollo Clean Transition Capital or ACT Capital, with $4 billion to deploy into yield and hybrid investments in support of corporate transition to clean energy.

在清潔能源轉型領域，我們最近宣布推出阿波羅清潔能源轉型資本（ACT Capital），投入 40 億美元用於收益和混合投資，以支持企業轉型為清潔能源。

Meaningful seed investment from a strategic partner and our aligned pools of capital should enable us to build a diversified portfolio and investment track record from which we can eventually raise additional third-party capital. We also expect to launch the Apollo Clean Transition private equity strategy in the third quarter, which will continue to expand the scope and scale of our activity in the sustainable investing area.

來自策略合作夥伴的有意義的種子投資以及我們整合的資金池，將使我們能夠建立多元化的投資組合和投資業績記錄，並最終藉此籌集更多第三方資本。我們也預計第三季推出阿波羅清潔轉型私募股權策略，這將繼續擴大我們在永續投資領域的業務範圍和規模。

And lastly, we began raising third-party capital for our inaugural equity secondaries vehicle in the second quarter, which is part of our sponsor and secondary solutions, or S3 business. As a reminder, we began investing for this strategy last fall with a chunk of seed capital from long-term strategic -- from a long-term strategic partner and AAA to help anchor the broader fundraise. Deployment activity has been strong since then, and the vehicle has committed over $1 billion of capital in transactions led by S3.

最後，我們在第二季開始為我們的首個股權二級市場工具籌集第三方資本，這是我們發起人和二級市場解決方案（簡稱S3）業務的一部分。提醒一下，我們從去年秋天開始為該策略進行投資，並從長期戰略合作夥伴和AAA機構獲得了大量種子資金，以幫助鞏固更廣泛的融資。自那時起，部署活動一直很強勁，該工具已在由S3牽頭的交易中承諾了超過10億美元的資本。

Combined with our three strategic growth pillars, these next six initiatives provide significant runway for growth. We look forward to providing updates as these exciting initiatives develop.

結合我們三大策略成長支柱，接下來的六項措施將為公司成長提供重要的發展空間。我們期待隨著這些令人興奮的舉措的進展提供最新消息。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Martin to go through our financial results in more detail.

因此，我將把電話轉給馬丁，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務結果。

Great. Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. So our asset management and retirement services businesses clearly continue to create recurring and growing income streams that demonstrate stability through significant market disruptions like we saw in the first quarter.

太好了。謝謝斯科特，大家早安。我們的資產管理和退休服務業務顯然繼續創造經常性且不斷增長的收入流，即使在第一季經歷重大市場波動的情況下，也表現出了穩定性。

Almost 60% of our assets under management is comprised of perpetual capital, with the remaining concentrated in long-term locked-up structures. And the funding source for our retirement services businesses, as Marc highlighted, is highly persistent with predictable long-term liabilities.

我們管理的資產中近60%由永久資本構成，其餘則集中在長期鎖定結構。正如Marc所強調的那樣，我們退休服務業務的資金來源高度穩定，且長期負債可預測。

In [bind], this creates a very resilient earnings profile particularly when considering pressures on the broader financial sector.

在[bind]中，這創造了一個非常有彈性的獲利狀況，特別是考慮到整個金融業面臨的壓力時。

Within our asset management Business, first quarter FRE increased by 28% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in both management fees and capital solutions fees. These increases reflect the approximate [$100 billion] of asset management inflows over the last 12 months as well as the broadening of our capital solutions capabilities as several of the substantial growth investments we've made over the past couple of years are translating into top line revenue.

在我們的資產管理業務方面，第一季的FRE年增28%，這得益於管理費和資本解決方案費的強勁成長。這些成長反映了過去12個月約1000億美元的資產管理資金流入，以及我們資本解決方案能力的不斷拓展，因為過去幾年我們在成長方面進行的多項重大投資正在轉化為營收。

Fee-generating inflows in the first quarter included $20 billion related to an investment management agreement with Atlas, for which we'll earn a 10 basis point fee. Fee-related expenses grew by 20% -- 26% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter. After several years of investment in our platform, the pace of headcount growth and the rate of increase in noncompensation costs will decelerate materially in 2023, making 2022 an inflection point for FRE cost growth. Altogether, as Marc suggested, we expect to deliver some operating leverage this year while targeting 25% FRE growth.

第一季產生的費用流入包括與 Atlas 簽訂的投資管理協議相關的 200 億美元，我們將從中獲得 10 個基點的費用。費用相關支出成長了 20%，年增 26%，較上季成長 3%。經過數年對平台的投資，員工人數成長速度和非薪酬成本的成長率將在 2023 年大幅放緩，這使得 2022 年成為 FRE 成本成長的轉折點。總而言之，正如 Marc 所說，我們預計今年將實現一定的營運槓桿，同時實現 25% 的 FRE 成長目標。

Moving to retirement services. Athene's performance to begin the year was stellar and exceeded our expectations. Part of the outperformance reflects a more favorable investing environment while part reflects more episodic gains or timing benefits. We reported normalized net spread of approximately 160 basis points in the first quarter, the highest level the business has seen in a decade. In the first part of the year, the investing environment was very attractive and we're able to deploy incoming flows at higher on the margin yields than we anticipated.

轉向退休服務。 Athene 年初的業績非常出色，超出了我們的預期。優異的績效部分反映了更有利的投資環境，部分則反映了更具階段性的收益或時機優勢。我們報告稱，第一季的正常化淨利差約為 160 個基點，創下該業務十年來的最高水準。今年上半年，投資環境非常誘人，我們能夠以高於預期的保證金收益率配置流入資金。

The weighted average yield on total fixed income purchases exceeded the BBB corporate bond index by more than 150 basis points in the first quarter versus only approximately 25 basis points in all of 2022. The higher rate environment also drove net spread accretion from Athene's floating rate position and cash holdings.

第一季度，固定收益購買總額的加權平均收益率超過 BBB 公司債指數 150 多個基點，而 2022 年全年僅超過約 25 個基點。較高的利率環境也推動了 Athene 浮動利率部位和現金持有量的淨利差成長。

Episodic or timing benefits in the quarter included fees related to financing arrangements for the Atlas transaction and some elevated fees related to certain fixed rate loans, SRE benefits in advance of the second vintage of strategic third-party sidecar capital, assuming its proportionate share of inflows from the first half of 2023 early in Q3, and we continue to expect sidecar capital to support approximately 40% of total Athene inflows this year in aggregate.

本季的偶發性或時間性收益包括與 Atlas 交易的融資安排相關的費用和與某些固定利率貸款相關的一些增加的費用，在第二次戰略第三方側車資本到來之前的 SRE 收益（假設其在 2023 年上半年的流入中佔比在第三季度初達到），並且我們繼續預計側車資本今年將總共支持 Athene 總流入量的 40%。

And then lastly, we expect an approximate $3 billion outflow in the third quarter related to the recapture of some older annuity liabilities by one of our affiliated partners. This will free up capital for Athene to redeploy in attractive investing environment while providing portfolio diversification for our affiliated partner, similar to the Catalina transaction in the fourth quarter of last year.

最後，我們預計第三季將有約30億美元的資金流出，這與我們一家關聯合作夥伴收回部分較舊的年金負債有關。這將釋放資本，使Athene能夠在具有吸引力的投資環境中重新配置，同時為我們的關聯合作夥伴提供投資組合多元化，類似於去年第四季的Catalina交易。

Due to the new insurance accounting standard commonly referred to as LDTI, last week, Athene recast SRE results for 2022. These new requirements drove a favorable impact to normalized SRE of $220 million in 2022, which was entirely reflected within cost of funds and translates to 12 basis points of normalized net spread benefit. We expect this benefit to persist in 2023 and the years beyond, although at an approximate 10 basis point in normalized spread terms. This effectively increases our normalized net spread target for 2023 from 135 to 140 basis points, up by 10 basis points to 145 to 150.

由於新保險會計準則（通常稱為LDTI）的實施，Athene上週調整了2022年的SRE表現。這些新要求對2022年的正常化SRE產生了2.2億美元的正面影響，這完全反映在資金成本中，並轉化為12個基點的正常化淨利差收益。我們預計這項收益將持續到2023年及以後，儘管以正常化利差計算，其增幅約為10個基點。這實際上將我們2023年的正常化淨利差目標從135個基點提高到140個基點，上調了10個基點，達到145-150個基點。

In addition, there are a few other moving pieces that should impact the outlook for SRE this year. First, given the deployment opportunities we're seeing in the market today, we do expect to put new money to work at better yields than we had originally forecast. And then -- but on the other hand, as Marc described, we prudently increased Athene's cash balance this quarter to provide an extra layer of stability amid heightened market volatility in March.

此外，還有一些其他因素可能會影響 SRE 今年的前景。首先，鑑於目前市場上的部署機會，我們確實預期新資金的收益率將高於最初的預期。另一方面，正如 Marc 所述，我們本季謹慎地增加了 Athene 的現金餘額，以便在 3 月市場波動加劇的情況下提供額外的穩定性。

Normalizing for the benefit of LDTI, considering an improved deployment backlog with offsets from higher cash balances, we expect normalized SRE to slightly exceed $3 billion this year, with an estimated normalized net spread range of 150 to 155 basis points.

為了使 LDTI 受益而進行正常化，考慮到部署積壓的改善以及更高現金餘額的抵消，我們預計今年正常化的 SRE 將略微超過 30 億美元，預計正常化的淨利差範圍為 150 至 155 個基點。

Let me spend a moment on capital allocation. We expect our free cash flow to be utilized to fund the base dividend, return incremental capital to shareholders through opportunistic buybacks and dividend increases and to invest in strategic growth. In any given quarter or year, we determine how to best allocate capital based on its highest returning use.

我先來聊聊資本配置。我們預計我們的自由現金流將用於支付基本股息，透過適時回購和增加股息向股東返還增量資本，並投資於策略成長。在任何季度或年度，我們都會根據資本的最高回報率來決定最佳配置方式。

We use the following framework in making this determination. For the dividend, we aim to generate a yield in line with or better than the S&P 500, which is currently yielding approximately 2% today versus 2.8%. For opportunistic share repurchases, we target at least a high teens IRR over the medium term and that's signaling closer to 20% at current trading multiples. For strategic growth investments, we underwrite a target return equal to or better than opportunistic share repurchases with the potential for strategic upside benefits.

我們採用以下框架來做出這個決定。對於股息，我們的目標是實現與標準普爾 500 指數持平或更佳的收益率，目前該指數的收益率約為 2%，而標準普爾 500 指數的收益率為 2.8%。對於機會性股票回購，我們的目標是中期內部報酬率至少達到 15% 左右，這意味著以當前本益比計算，內部報酬率接近 20%。對於策略性成長投資，我們承保的目標報酬率等於或優於機會性股票回購，並具有策略性上行收益的潛力。

And all of these HoldCo capital users are weighed against growing Athene. Even without using any third-party sidecar capital from ADIP growing Athene is very compelling as it's generating an estimated low 20% pretax ROE today. This return profile is further enhanced with increasing utilization of ADIP.

所有這些HoldCo資本使用者都與Athene的成長有權衡。即使不使用ADIP的任何第三方輔助資本，Athene的成長也非常有吸引力，因為它目前的稅前淨資產收益率估計在20%左右。隨著ADIP利用率的提高，這項報酬率將進一步提升。

In the first quarter specifically, we deployed $160 million of capital for opportunistic share repurchases, and our current orientation is to spend less on strategic investments given the large number of organic growth initiatives under development and the high bar in which we are using to consider these new opportunities. As we communicated last quarter, we expect to be a buyer of our stock on a more consistent basis as we move through our 5-year plan.

具體來說，在第一季度，我們投入了1.6億美元用於機會性股票回購。鑑於大量有機成長計畫正在製定中，且我們評估這些新機會的門檻較高，我們目前的策略是減少策略投資。正如我們上個季度所溝通的那樣，隨著五年計劃的推進，我們預計將更加持續地回購股票。

In conclusion, our financial results in the first quarter positioned us very well to execute on our strategic and financial goals for the year. We're busier than ever, we're highly focused on the significant opportunity in front of us. And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

總而言之，我們第一季的財務表現為我們實現全年策略和財務目標奠定了良好的基礎。我們比以往任何時候都更加忙碌，我們高度關注眼前的重大機會。好了，現在我將把電話轉回給接線生進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Alex Blostein of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·布洛斯坦。

So Marc, maybe we could start with the current environment. Apollo clearly built a really broad set of origination capabilities. We talked about that a bunch in the past, but the dislocation in the regional bank space is amplifying and amplifying really the supply-demand imbalance against that we see in the market.

Marc，也許我們可以從目前的環境說起。 Apollo 顯然已經建立了一套非常廣泛的發起能力。我們過去多次討論過這個問題，但區域銀行領域的混亂正在加劇市場供需失衡。

So given that backdrop, maybe spend a minute on areas you expect to be more active in among the existing platforms. Are there any new asset classes in a way that you could further lean into? And then maybe talk a little bit about third-party fundraising that could get accelerated by what's going on in the credit space, call it, over the next 12 months.

有鑑於此，能否請您花一點時間談談您預計在現有平台中會更加活躍的領域。有哪些新的資產類別值得您進一步關注？然後，能否談談第三方融資，未來12個月，信貸領域的發展可能會加速第三方融資的發展。

Okay. We are, as you know, broadly focused on scaling our private credit business. Our private credit business is different than most other private credit businesses in that the majority, and the vast majority of it is fixed income replacement or private investment grade. This fits very well with the space that is currently in retrenchment by the banking system because the banking system historically was not a risk taker. They were an accommodation, top of the capital structure senior secured. We, in fact, are top of the capital structure, senior secured and floating rate.

好的。如你所知，我們目前主要致力於擴大私人信貸業務。我們的私人信貸業務與大多數其他私人信貸業務不同，其中大多數，甚至絕大多數，是固定收益替代或私人投資等級。這與銀行體系目前正在萎縮的領域非常契合，因為銀行體系歷來不承擔風險。它們是一種融資方式，是資本結構頂端的優先擔保產品。事實上，我們處於資本結構頂端，優先擔保型產品和浮動利率。

If I step back, de-banking has already been happening across our country. Following Dodd-Frank, which essentially encouraged the development of bank replacement by investors, banks, we estimate are less than 20% of all debt capital in U.S. capital markets. Given what's happened in regional banking, I expect that to become more of an investor marketplace.

退一步說，去銀行化已經在我們國家各地展開。多德-弗蘭克法案實質上鼓勵了投資者銀行取代銀行的發展，我們估計，投資者銀行在美國資本市場中佔有債務資本的比例不到20%。鑑於區域銀行業的情況，我預計它們將更多地成為一個投資者市場。

The way the U.S. banks today in the investment marketplace is indirectly through securitization. If you look at growth in CLO, growth in ABS, growth in other forms of securitization, you're seeing essentially how America banks today. Atlas, the Credit Suisse Securitized Products group, along with Redding Ridge, along with MidCap, along with the Wheels, Donlen and the other platforms we have built are all focused on this marketplace.

如今，美國銀行在投資市場上的運作方式是透過證券化間接進行的。如果你觀察CLO、ABS以及其他形式證券化的成長，你就能大致了解當今美國銀行的運作方式。 Atlas、瑞信證券化產品集團、Redding Ridge、MidCap、Wheels、Donlen以及我們建造的其他平台都專注於這個市場。

I would expect, Alex, that you will see a tremendous tick up in securitized product relative to traditional direct lending, and it's a space that I believe has a lot of white space and where we are incredibly well positioned. And I would expect in later quarters that we will see fundraising develop around this. Investors, particularly those who have essentially invested in the first round of private credit are meaningfully underexposed to structured product and don't have great ways to have access to it. So I think this is actually a really interesting time for the platform and one in which we're well positioned.

亞歷克斯，我預期證券化產品相對於傳統直接貸款將大幅成長，我相信這個領域存在大量空白，而我們在這方面處於非常有利的位置。我預計在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們將看到圍繞該領域的融資活動發展。投資者，尤其是那些基本上投資了第一輪私募信貸的投資者，對結構化產品的敞口嚴重不足，而且沒有很好的途徑獲得這些產品。所以我認為這對平台來說是一個非常有趣的時機，而我們正處於有利的位置。

The next question is coming from Patrick Davitt of Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Patrick Davitt。

On that point, do you have any kind of updated thoughts on how much annual origination capacity you think will come online with Atlas? And through that lens, as we look to your doing -- third-party insurance business, is there any risk that it will be harder for you to build that part of the business out as insurance companies might see Athene as too big a competitor?

關於這一點，您對 Atlas 每年將新增多少保險業務有什麼最新的看法嗎？從這個角度來看，當我們審視您的第三方保險業務時，是否存在風險，即由於保險公司可能將 Athene 視為過於強大的競爭對手，從而加大您拓展這部分業務的難度？

So Atlas -- it's hard to say on Atlas. Atlas had been a $70 billion book of business that I view as turning annually or every 1.5 years. At the time of acquisition, we purchased roughly a $40 billion book of business. And so I would expect you should see somewhere $30 billion, $40 billion of annual originations.

所以 Atlas 的情況很難說。 Atlas 的業務規模曾經高達 700 億美元，我認為每年或每 1.5 年就會翻一番。收購 Atlas 時，我們收購了約 400 億美元的業務。因此，我預計 Atlas 每年的融資額應該在 300 億到 400 億美元之間。

We had, prior to Atlas had originations running at close to $100 billion. As you know, our 5-year target is $150 billion of annual originations, and I believe certainly with Atlas, but also with the growth of the platform and what's happening with banking generally, I would expect that we would exceed that $150 billion of annual originations well before the date that we had projected.

在 Atlas 推出之前，我們的年度貸款發放量接近 1000 億美元。如你所知，我們的五年目標是每年貸款發放達到 1500 億美元。我相信，有了 Atlas，再加上平台的成長以及銀行業的整體發展，我們預計年度貸款發放將遠早於預期。

With respect to the competitive nature of our business, we really do honor this 25% of everything and 100% of nothing philosophy. Some of the people you would perceive as Athene's largest competitors are actually our partners in these origination platforms. Not only do we not want 100% of any transaction, we actually are prepared to share the means of origination with people who you would have sensibly view as our competitors.

鑑於我們業務的競爭性質，我們確實秉持著「25%的利潤，100%的零利潤」的理念。一些你認為是Athene最大競爭對手的人，實際上是我們在這些發起平台上的合作夥伴。我們不僅不想100%地參與任何交易，實際上，我們準備好與那些你理所當然地認為是競爭對手的人分享發起管道。

If I step back and again, think about our business, more than $500 billion of our $600 billion of AUM is partner capital where we're essentially working with the marketplace. Yes, private equity and transaction-based businesses are somewhat zero-sum, someone wins and someone loses. But for the vast majority of business, if you are our competitor, either an asset management or insurance, and you want to build, for instance, a CLO business in competition with Apollo CLO business, not only we will give you equity, we'll give you warehouse. We'll warehouse collateral for you. We'll buy your liabilities and we'll put you in business. If you want to start a broker-dealer in competition with our capital solutions business, we'll fund your broker-dealer. We are simply not in competition with any one company.

如果我退一步思考我們的業務，在我們6,000億美元的資產管理規模中，超過5,000億美元是合作夥伴資本，我們本質上是在與市場合作。沒錯，私募股權和基於交易的業務在某種程度上是零和博弈，有人贏，有人輸。但對於絕大多數業務而言，如果你是我們的競爭對手，無論是資產管理公司還是保險公司，並且你想建立一個CLO業務來與Apollo CLO業務競爭，我們不僅會給你股權，還會給你倉儲。我們會為你提供抵押品倉儲服務。我們會購買你的債務，讓你開展業務。如果你想創辦一家經紀自營商來與我們的資本解決方案業務競爭，我們會為你的經紀自營商提供資金。我們根本不與任何一家公司競爭。

We are in a market where we are $440 billion of AUM, which sounds really large, but I assure you that the CEOs of the four big banks in the U.S. do not wake up every day wondering what the mighty Apollo is doing. We are fortunate to be really large, but at the same time, in a vast sea where we are not yet a relevant player.

我們所在的市場資產管理規模高達4400億美元，聽起來確實很大，但我向你保證，美國四大銀行的CEO們不會每天醒來都琢磨著強大的阿波羅在幹什麼。我們很幸運擁有如此大的規模，但同時，在廣闊的市場中，我們尚未成為重要的參與者。

The next question is coming from Glenn Schorr of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So I'm curious, you're in the business of capturing spread, obviously, but I'm curious if you think you benefited as much as you thought you'd benefit from this big move up in rates? And the flip side of that is, how are you thinking about what to do with the portfolios and your investment in your deployment as the forward curve is now expecting some rate cuts along the way? Just curious on how you're pivoting as we might be pivoting on the rate cut side.

所以我很好奇，你的業務顯然是獲取利差，但我很好奇，你是否認為你從這次利率大幅上漲中獲益的程度和你預想的一樣多？另一方面，鑑於遠期曲線目前預計利率會有所下調，你如何考慮投資組合和投資部署？我只是好奇，鑑於我們可能正在轉向降息，你是如何調整策略的。

Okay. Thanks, Glenn, it's Marc. So first, rates in and of themselves do not fundamentally alter the shape of the business. They alter the attractiveness of the product, as I've said, because consumers prefer higher rates to lower rates. But in terms of our business model, our cost of funds pretty much adjusts with the opportunities available in the marketplace, absent unusual events like in the first quarter, where we earned excess spread. So rate moves don't really affect spread in and of themselves.

好的。謝謝，格倫，我是馬克。首先，利率本身並不會從根本上改變業務格局。正如我所說，利率會改變產品的吸引力，因為消費者更喜歡高利率而不是低利率。但就我們的商業模式而言，我們的資金成本基本上會根據市場上的機會進行調整，除非出現像第一季那樣的異常事件，當時我們獲得了超額利差。因此，利率變動本身並不會影響利差。

We have had the luxury because we earned adequate spread on prior books of business of holding a large floating rate position. And I'll come back to this because it's important to know that. The floating rate position did exactly what it was supposed to do. It provided excess earnings during a period of low rates moving to higher rates. You should assume that we have maintained, but normalized, the floating rate position at Athene, reflecting the current market environment.

我們之所以能擁有如此大的浮動利率部位，是因為我們在之前的業務中獲得了足夠的利差。這一點很重要，我稍後會再談。浮動利率部位發揮了應有的作用。在低利率轉向高利率的時期，它提供了超額收益。您應該認為，我們維持了Athene的浮動利率部位，但進行了正常化，以反映當前的市場環境。

The important thing, I think, and you didn't ask the question, but I think it's important to understand our business. When we were building Athene, we built scale inorganically by buying books of business. When rates are low, buying blocks of business is actually just fine because the business that's on the books is generally has high guarantees in a low rate environment. When you buy a block of business, it's generally outside or near the end of its surrender charge and market value adjustment period. And so you take a big risk doing inorganic deals, unless there's a huge differential between the rate environment and the guarantee and the policy. We were -- spreads were so wide when we were building that business that we could actually afford to hedge that risk through floating rate.

我認為，重要的是，雖然你沒有問這個問題，但我認為了解我們的業務很重要。在創建Athene時，我們透過購買業務帳簿來非直接擴大規模。當利率較低時，購買業務帳簿實際上是可行的，因為在低利率環境下，帳簿上的業務通常具有較高的擔保。當你購買業務帳簿時，它通常已經超出或接近其退保費用和市場價值調整期的結束。因此，除非利率環境與保證和保單之間存在巨大的價差，否則進行非直接交易將承擔很大的風險。我們當時——在創建這項業務時，利差非常大，以至於我們實際上可以透過浮動利率來對沖這種風險。

What's happening today, we haven't done an inorganic deal in about 3 years. The cost of inorganic deals, given the competition in the marketplace exceeds meaningfully the cost of funds with newly issued, newly protected surrender charges and market value adjustments. What we are seeing today is the last desperate attempt of people in our industry trying to build scale. Think about what's happening, all the concerns that investors have about surrenders and policyholder behavior, someone who buys a block of business today, is buying generally old surrender charges, old market value adjustments that are burning off, and they're buying into a rate environment that is high where consumers have alternatives. So you would not expect to be able to hedge that block in a meaningful way.

現在的情況是，我們已經大約三年沒有進行過非公開交易了。考慮到市場競爭，非公開交易的成本遠遠超過了新發行、新受保護的退保費用和市值調整基金的成本。我們今天看到的，是我們這個產業試圖擴大規模的最後掙扎。想想現在的情況，投資者對退保和保單持有人行為的所有擔憂，今天購買一大批業務的人，通常購買的是舊的退保費用和舊的市值調整，這些費用正在消耗殆盡，而且他們購買的是高利率環境，消費者有其他選擇。所以，你不會指望能夠以有效的方式對沖這部分業務。

So I view this as kind of the interesting thing in our industry. I think it's going to be very hard to get to scale in this rate environment, absent a meaningful organic origination engine because you simply do not want to invest or put capital behind policies that are not protected by surrender charges, market value adjustments or other contractual or economic incentives.

所以我認為這是我們這個行業比較有趣的事情。我認為，在這種利率環境下，如果沒有一個有意義的有機發起引擎，很難實現規模化，因為你根本就不想投資或投入資金去支持那些沒有退保費、市場價值調整或其他合約或經濟激勵措施保護的保單。

The next question is coming from Rufus Hone of BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Rufus Hone。

I was hoping you could spend a moment on the ramp of AAA and maybe give us your thoughts on what you think the run rate inflows could be for that product around year-end. And was also curious on Athene Altitude and the potential there for tax advantage products. Specifically, I suppose, what products can you house within one of these VA wrappers and what limitations are there? Because seems to me like a no-brainer to defer your taxes, if it's possible.

我希望您能花點時間談談AAA的升級，並談談您認為該產品年底前後的運行流入量會是多少。同時，我也對Athene Altitude及其稅收優惠產品的潛力感到好奇。具體來說，我想問一下，哪些產品可以放在VA包裝裡，有哪些限制？因為如果可能的話，延遲納稅在我看來是理所當然的。

Sure. I'll start with the AAA question. So as I mentioned in my comments, we are really starting to hit the sweet spot of adding distribution partners to the AAA offering.

當然。我先從 AAA 的問題開始。正如我在評論中提到的，我們確實開始找到最佳方案，為 AAA 產品增加分銷合作夥伴。

To your question of where this could be on a retail basis, we could be approaching $0.5 billion to $1 billion a quarter, I think, by the end of the year. Retail plus one of the surprises we found is that this is more attractive to certain institutional investors than we would have expected when we created the product and that, of course, is a little bit lumpier, but we're starting to see real progress on that.

至於你問到零售業務的規模會有多大，我認為到今年年底，我們每季的銷售額可能會接近5億到10億美元。零售業務以及我們發現的一個驚喜是，這款產品對某些機構投資者的吸引力比我們創建產品時的預期要大，當然，這其中的不確定性可能有點大，但我們已經開始看到這方面真正的進展。

So in due course, we've said in the past, this could very well be Apollo's largest product. And I do really believe that over the next few years, this could be a product, $20 billion, $30-plus billion.

所以，我們之前就說過，這很可能成為阿波羅最大的產品。我堅信，在未來幾年裡，這款產品的價值可能會達到200億美元，甚至300多億美元。

Maybe I'll hit Athene Altitude. So we've articulated previously, and I certainly have been quoted publicly stating that over the next 5 years, I expect that high net worth investors will be better than 50% allocated to alternatives. That always elicits certainly a look because it is not where the people are today. But I start with a definition of an alternative.

也許我會達到雅典娜高地。我們之前已經明確表示過，而且我公開表示過，我預計未來5年，高淨值投資者將把超過50%的資金配置在另類投資上。這肯定會引來人們的關注，因為現在人們的配置水準還不高。但我先從另類投資的定義開始。

To us, as an alternative is nothing other than an alternative to publicly traded stocks and bonds. And I believe alternatives go from AA to equity. So when I say 50% allocated to alternatives, I do not believe they will be allocated to private equity or venture capital or risk but to alternatives in the newer definition that I've suggested.

對我們來說，另類投資無非就是公開交易股票和債券的替代品。我相信另類投資的範圍從AA級到股權級。所以，當我說50%的資金配置給另類投資時，我認為它們不會配置給私募股權、創投或創投，而是配置給我所建議的新定義中的另類投資。

Today, you can buy from Apollo investment-grade only yield. You can buy total return, you can buy opportunistic credit, you can buy REIT, you can buy BDC, you can buy our credit strategies head fund and you can buy AAA, all wrapped in an Altitude annuity for an excess cost of 30 basis points with no further restrictions.

如今，您可以從阿波羅購買投資等級收益型債券。您可以購買總回報債券、機會型信貸債券、房地產投資信託基金 (REIT)、商業發展公司 (BDC)、我們的信貸策略主管基金以及 AAA 級債券，所有這些債券都包含在 Altitude 年金中，超額成本為 30 個基點，且無其他限制。

We, as an industry, are in the early stages of addressing the needs of high net worth and retail investors versus institutions. One of the key differences is institutions are not taxpayers. They generally are pension funds or endowments or other types of tax exempts. So our industry has not historically been as tax sensitive. So if you think of the experience of a BDC investor in a high-tax state, an 8% dividend yield looks like 3.8% to the consumer. That's not as attractive as [7.7%].

我們這個行業正處於滿足高淨值和散戶投資者而非機構投資者需求的早期階段。其中一個關鍵差異是，機構投資者並非納稅人。它們通常是退休基金、捐贈基金或其他類型的免稅機構。因此，我們這個行業歷來對稅收不那麼敏感。所以，如果你考慮高稅率州的BDC投資者的經歷，8%的股息殖利率對消費者來說相當於3.8%。這不如7.7%那麼有吸引力。

But we are in an education phase and the whole growth of alternatives is about education. And retail investors and their financial advisers first need to understand the products. And they are getting an education in products, and we are doing our part and other firms in the industry are responsibly doing their part. This next layer of Altitude and wrapping is yet another bit of education. So we are selling this product today mostly to high net worth individuals and family offices, and this product will get increased amounts of traction as Martin or Scott in their remarks suggested.

但我們正處於教育階段，另類投資的整個成長都與教育有關。散戶及其理財顧問首先需要了解這些產品。他們正在接受產品方面的教育，我們正在盡自己的一份力量，業內其他公司也在負責任地履行各自的職責。接下來的「高度」和「包裝」又是另一層教育。因此，我們目前主要向高淨值人士和家族理財辦公室銷售這款產品，正如馬丁和史考特在他們的演講中所暗示的那樣，這款產品將獲得更大的吸引力。

I believe we will have our first broad distribution of this at some point this year. And you should expect us, as new products come online, we will continue to build out the family of products under the Altitude brand.

我相信我們今年某個時候會首次廣泛分銷這款產品。隨著新產品的上線，我們將繼續擴展 Altitude 品牌的產品系列。

The next question is coming from Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·賽普里斯。

Just a question on the retirement services business. You mentioned an increase in cash balances, adding an extra layer of stability. How meaningful is that? And what do you see in the marketplace? And when you look at your outflow profile that's leading you to do that, we saw an 11% outflow rate in the quarter. So I guess a question there, how do you expect that to trend over the next couple of years and you mentioned a recapture of some older annuities coming up in the third quarter? What's the expectation to see more of those following Catalina that we saw last year?

關於退休服務業務，我只想問一個問題。您提到現金餘額增加，增加了額外的穩定性。這有多重要？您在市場上看到了什麼？您查看了導致您現金餘額增加的資金流出情況，我們發現本季的資金流出率為11%。我想問一下，您預計未來幾年的趨勢會如何？您提到第三季將重新收回一些老年金？在卡特琳娜颶風之後，預計會出現更多像去年的年金嗎？

So it's Marc. On a normalized basis, we hold about 12 -- excuse me, $6 billion, $6.5 billion of cash. So this is about $6 billion of extra cash. For those of you I've seen in person or have attended a call with, I remember in the early days of the banking crisis, calling out to Jim Belardi and asking him to give me the benefit of some leeway. I was going to ask him to do something that had no justification other than feel, which was to massively increase our cash balances at the point of instability we were watching Credit Suisse and Signature and SVB. And Jim did that. And ironically, it's positioned him to take advantage of wider spread. So in hindsight, I think it's been no harm no foul, and I would expect to see cash balances come down.

馬克。正常情況下，我們持有大約12億美元——不好意思，60億美元，65億美元現金。所以這大約是60億美元的額外現金。對於那些我親自見過或參加過電話會議的人，我記得在銀行業危機初期，我打電話給吉姆·貝拉迪，請他給我一些彈性。我本來想讓他做一件除了感覺之外沒有任何理由的事情，那就是在我們關注瑞信、Signature和矽谷銀行的不穩定點上大幅增加我們的現金餘額。吉姆照做了。諷刺的是，這讓他能夠利用更大的利差。所以事後看來，我認為這並沒有什麼壞處，我預期現金餘額會下降。

The question on outflows, I hope we answered better in terms of the table that we disclosed, but I'll come back to you and I'll speak philosophically first. When we construct a product, we put a lot of benefits into the product. We strip away the excess features that give rise to volatility that consumers really don't know how to value anyway and we put it into the price. And yet we create a very low cost of funds, and we've gone from a start-up to the largest provider and the largest market share in the U.S. market. That is no mean feat. But when a product comes out of surrender charge or its market value adjustment burns off, we take the product to its contractual minimum. We want the product to surrender because we cannot invest and earn spread against a product that is redeemable at any point in time.

關於資金流出的問題，我希望我們之前披露的表格能更好地回答這個問題，但我稍後會再回复您，首先從哲學角度談談。我們在設計一款產品時，會將許多優勢融入其中。我們會剔除那些導致波動性、消費者根本不知道該如何評估的冗餘功能，並將其融入價格中。然而，我們創造了非常低的資金成本，並已從一家新創公司發展成為美國市場上最大的供應商和最大的市場份額。這絕非易事。但是，當一款產品到期退保費或其市值調整額度耗盡時，我們會將產品降至其合約最低限額。我們希望產品退保，因為我們無法投資並賺取隨時可贖回的產品的利差。

This is true across the industry. It is not just us who follows this as a point in time. And recall, policies generally do not leave the industry, they recycle because otherwise, people suffer tax consequences, and this is a retirement product. This is not a demand deposit.

整個產業都是如此。不僅僅是我們關注這個時間點。記住，保單通常不會離開這個行業，它們會被循環利用，因為否則人們會承擔稅務後果，而且這是一種退休產品，而不是活期存款。

What's happening to us, and we are seeing the benefit of is we were a zero market share, and now we're the largest market share. We are the benefit of this recycling at a point in time in the industry. when rates are higher, and therefore, consumers are more interested in annuities. And the whole industry is up. We're just up more than about anyone else.

我們現在正在經歷的，以及我們看到的好處是，我們曾經的市場份額為零，而現在我們擁有最大的市場份額。我們正受益於產業在某個時間點的這種循環。當利率更高時，消費者對年金更感興趣。整個產業都在上漲。我們的漲幅比其他任何人都要大。

So I come back to the specifics now in how surrenders work. The maturity cycle of contractual-based outflows will go up and down based on the business that we see 3, 5, 7 years ago. We can tell you pretty much quarter-by-quarter, and Athene will do that in their deep dive, what's the contractual maturity driven outcomes will be. In some quarters, it will be up, some quarters it will be down. You can actually look back to this quarter, that maturity driven was 3%. Q3 in 2022, it was 5.7%. You should expect to see a lot of volatility in that line based on business done 3, 5 and 7 years ago.

現在我來談談退保的具體運作方式。基於合約的資金流出的到期週期會根據我們3年、5年或7年前的業務情況上下波動。我們可以大致逐季度告訴你，Athene也會在深入研究中說明合約到期驅動的結果。有些季度會上升，有些季度會下降。你可以回顧一下本季度，到期驅動的比率是3%。 2022年第三季是5.7%。基於3年、5年和7年前的業務狀況，你應該可以預見這條線會出現很大的波動。

Income with policyholder driven outflows, the three categories, for income-oriented withdrawals, you should see this as a steady amount of money that goes out based on the age of policyholder and their proclivity or need or legal requirement to take income. This is also planned.

保單持有人驅動支出的收入，即三類以收入為導向的提款，您應該將其視為一筆穩定的支出，該支出將根據保單持有人的年齡、其提取收入的傾向、需求或法律要求而定。這也是計劃內的。

The next line is from policies out of surrender charge. This is also planned. This gets to the point I just made. We take contractual minimums on policies that burn off their surrender charges to as low as we possibly can. We want these people to surrender. This is a relatively small amount because the vast majority of policyholders surrender at maturity. 10% approximately of the people forget they have a policy and some point in the future, they wake up and discover they have a policy that's out of surrender charge. And so this number, you can see bumps around back and forth. It's neither high or low. It's a relatively small number.

下一行是關於免退保費的保單。這也是計劃中的。這就回到我剛才提到的問題了。我們會盡可能降低那些免退保費的保單的合約最低限額。我們希望這些人退保。這個數字相對較小，因為絕大多數保單持有人在保單到期時都會退保。大約有10%的人會忘記自己有保單，而在未來某個時候，他們醒來後發現自己的保單已經免除退保費了。所以，這個數字，你可以看到它上下波動。它不高也不低，是一個相對較小的數字。

The thing that we watch pretty closely because it is the basis of our business, we look at policies and surrender charges. These are, to some extent, unplanned. These are what I would call life issues. This is health issues, death, divorce or other change in life circumstances, we generally don't see changes in these kinds of surrenders as a result of interest rates or financial markets activity. And if you go back and you look in time, this quarter, unexceptional. And you should expect and we budget that number to be kind of unexceptional on a go-forward basis.

我們密切關注的是保單和退保費用，因為這是我們業務的基礎。這些在某種程度上是計劃外的。我稱之為「人壽問題」。例如健康問題、死亡、離婚或其他生活環境的變化，我們通常不會看到這類退保費用會因利率或金融市場活動而改變。如果你回顧過去，你會發現本季的情況並不例外。你應該預料到，我們預算中的這個數字在未來也應該不會例外。

So again, I step back and I look at this industry, and it's not the first time we've done this. This industry has been resilient over a really long period of time. You go back to the financial crisis and you think about how central AIG was to the -- in the financial crisis in 2008, really no move. If you think about Genworth, who also had its troubles in the financial crisis, also no move. Don't see anything really going on here that changes the way I think about the business. And I think we will do the best job we possibly can to give you a prediction of outflows. And the primary thing that varies is maturity driven contractual-based outflows quarter-by-quarter.

所以，我再次回顧這個行業，這並非我們第一次這樣做。這個行業在很長一段時間內都保持著韌性。回顧金融危機，想想AIG在2008年金融危機中扮演的角色——當時它幾乎毫無動靜。想想Genworth，它在金融危機中也陷入了困境，同樣毫無動靜。我認為現在發生的事情並沒有改變我對這個行業的看法。我認為我們會盡最大努力，為大家提供資金流出的預測。主要的變化在於每季基於期限的合約流出量。

The next question is coming from Michael Brown of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的邁克爾布朗。

So Marc, capital solutions has been running north of $120 million or so for the last 3 quarters. It seems like it's playing a more important role in the broader business here. Could you just explain a little bit more about what's driving on that growth here in this still very challenging backdrop? And is there potential to actually hit your $500 million target before 2026? It seems like you're certainly trending that way.

Marc，資本解決方案在過去三個季度的營運規模一直超過1.2億美元。它似乎在整體業務中扮演著更重要的角色。您能否進一步解釋一下，在當前依然充滿挑戰的背景下，是什麼推動了這一成長？您是否有潛力在2026年之前真正實現5億美元的目標？看起來您確實正朝著這個方向發展。

Yes, I'll answer that. The -- look, it's exactly what we broadcast over the last year, year plus. As we've continued to scale that ACS business, right, it's about inputs and outputs. We've continued to grow the number of origination platforms, the number of products flowing into that, combined with, as we've scaled the ACS business and the number of syndicators we have, we touch more clients, more market participants. And so it's not surprising, we're seeing the steady progression.

是的，我會回答這個問題。你看，這正是我們在過去一年多所宣傳的。隨著我們不斷擴大ACS業務規模，對，這關乎投入和產出。我們不斷增加發起平台的數量，增加流入平台的產品數量，同時，隨著ACS業務規模的擴大和我們擁有的辛迪加數量的增加，我們接觸到的客戶和市場參與者也越來越多。因此，我們看到穩定發展也就不足為奇了。

As Marc alluded to, particularly on the credit side, we really do want to own 100% of nothing. And so by definition, that continues to feed our ACS platform. So directionally, this is heading exactly the way we would have predicted. To your point about hitting that target early, it's certainly possible that I think that 5-year plan was a little bit conservative.

正如馬克所提到的，尤其是在信貸方面，我們確實希望100%擁有零資產。因此，從定義上講，這將繼續為我們的ACS平台提供動力。所以從方向上看，這正朝著我們預期的方向發展。至於你提到的提前實現目標，我當然可能認為那個五年計畫有點保守。

The next question is coming from Craig Siegenthaler of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

I wanted to better understand the quarterly valuation process for the equity stakes of your credit origination vehicles that are held in AAA, and then for the AAA stakes that's held in the aux bucket of Athene. And my question really is it's driven by the fact that Athene no longer holds the equity stakes directly because it was swapped for AAA a couple of quarters ago.

我想更深入了解你們信用發起工具持有的AAA級股權的季度估值流程，以及持有Athene輔助級AAA級股權的季度估值流程。我的問題是，這實際上是因為Athene不再直接持有股權，因為它在幾個季度前被評為AAA。

So I'll do a start, and then I'll turn it over to Martin. It's Marc. So the valuation process, whether it was on Athene's balance sheet or in AAA hasn't changed and makes no difference. The vast majority of the origination vehicles are held or valued on a basis of book value and ROE. And as you would imagine, in this environment, they are on the margin moving up. But there's not a tremendous amount of volatility because these are, for the most part, book value-based entities that track how they're doing in ROEs, and ROEs have been very stable over a long period of time. And Martin...

我先開始，然後交給馬丁。他是馬克。估值流程，無論是在雅典娜的資產負債表上還是在AAA評級中，都沒有改變，也沒有什麼區別。絕大多數的發起機構都是根據帳面價值和淨資產收益率（ROE）持有或估價。正如你所想的，在這種環境下，它們的邊際利益正在上升。但波動性並不大，因為這些機構大多是基於帳面價值的，會追蹤其淨資產收益率的表現，而淨資產收益率長期以來一直非常穩定。馬丁…

I would just add, the only difference between the valuation in the alternatives portfolio, which was 6% for the quarter and what AAA shows is just due to certain positions that are not in AAA. But they can't be for various reasons. But otherwise...

我想補充一點，另類投資組合的估值（本季為 6%）與 AAA 評級之間的唯一差異僅僅是因為某些部位並非 AAA 評級。但由於各種原因，它們不可能達到 AAA 評級。但除此之外…

I think of -- just here, I think Athora or Catalina, other insurance companies can't be for regulatory and other reasons in AAA. And those positions are held out. Otherwise, 100% of the alternatives portfolio is, in fact, in AAA.

我想到——就在這裡，我認為Athora或Catalina，以及其他保險公司由於監管和其他原因不能被評為AAA。這些頭寸被保留了下來。否則，100%的另類投資組合其實都是AAA。

Yes. So there's no difference in any way between the valuation methods. And then within the alts portfolio for the quarter, connecting back to the comments Marc made on the platforms, the platform has generated close to 10% return within that 6% for the quarter. So the origination business is healthy and high ROEs are translating into upward markets in that portfolio.

是的。所以估價方法之間沒有任何區別。然後，在本季的另類投資組合中，結合Marc對這些平台的評論，該平台在本季的6%回報率中，實現了近10%的回報。因此，發起業務表現良好，高淨資產收益率正在轉化為投資組合中市場的上漲。

The next question is coming from Brian Bedell of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Marc, if I can come back to a response you had to a question earlier on growth in securitized product and maybe just to compare it with direct lending. To the extent, obviously, if we get a substantial pullback over the medium and long term from the banking system, especially regional banks, can you talk about that opportunity in direct lending, but then obviously, contrasted with your sort of optimism on securitized product? And is that going to sort of take some of the share from direct lending? Or do you see them both growing pretty substantially and your participation, obviously, in both?

馬克，我可以回到你之前關於證券化產品成長的問題，並把它與直接貸款進行比較嗎？顯然，如果中長期來看銀行體系，尤其是區域性銀行的資金大幅減少，你能談談直接貸款的機會嗎？這與你對證券化產品的樂觀態度形成了鮮明對比。這會搶佔直接貸款的部分份額嗎？或者你認為它們都會大幅成長，而且你顯然在這兩個領域都有參與？

Look, I'll start at the top of the ecosystem. I'll invite Scott to add as we go. So I start at the top of the ecosystem, the U.S. economy needs credit, consumers and businesses as a result of GDP and GDP growth. How that credit is provided has been in a secular change, particularly since Dodd-Frank, with more of that credit coming from the -- from investors who are the new banks versus from the banking system, government guarantee, government-backed deposit insured banks. So as a general matter, investors are supplying more credit relative to the banking system.

瞧，我會從生態系的頂層開始講。講到這兒，我會邀請史考特補充。所以我從生態系統的頂層講起，由於GDP和GDP的成長，美國經濟需要信貸、消費者和企業。信貸的提供方式一直在長期變化，尤其是自《多德-弗蘭克法案》以來，更多的信貸來自——來自投資者，也就是新的銀行，而不是來自銀行體系、政府擔保、政府支持的存款保險銀行。所以整體而言，投資人提供的信貸相對於銀行體系更多。

Then we have this growth of something we call private credit, but those are two words that don't really mean anything. They just sound like they mean something because private credit can be AA or private credit can be highly risky CCC. For the most part, popular press has taken private credit to mean levered lending, which is below investment grade, which is a relatively small part of the private credit ecosystem.

然後，我們又看到了所謂的私人信貸的成長，但這兩個詞實際上並沒有什麼意義。它們只是聽起來有點意思，因為私人信貸可以是AA級，也可以是高風險的CCC級。大多數情況下，大眾媒體將私人信貸理解為槓桿貸款，而這種貸款的評級低於投資等級，在私人信貸生態系統中只佔很小的一部分。

Yet when investors talk about private credit and their allocation to private credit, and they sometimes use the term direct lending, almost all of that is focused on the below investment grade levered lending or direct lending. And people also think about lending in corporate format because that is the most familiar, the most common way people think about it.

然而，當投資者談論私人信貸及其配置時，他們有時會使用「直接貸款」一詞，但幾乎所有這類貸款都集中在低於投資等級的槓桿貸款或直接貸款上。人們也會考慮公司形式的貸款，因為這是最熟悉、最常見的理解方式。

For our ecosystem, we love the direct lending, below investment-grade levered lending business sometimes. Right now, we happen to love it. There's not a lot of providers. Funds are still needed. We can make commitments underwriting in a negative mindset, we can earn wide spreads, and there's a shortage of capital so we have good deal selection. Now is a good entry point to below investment grade, levered lending, private credit, direct lending, however you define it.

就我們的生態系統而言，我們有時喜歡直接貸款，有時喜歡低於投資級的槓桿貸款業務。目前，我們恰好喜歡它。貸款機構不多，資金仍短缺。我們可以以消極心態進行承銷承諾，賺取較大的利差，而且由於資金短缺，我們有不錯的交易選擇。現在是進入低於投資等級、槓桿貸款、私人信貸、直接貸款（無論你怎麼定義）的良好切入點。

The point I was making is when you look at the macro of how the country is now banking in the investor marketplace, it doesn't bank primarily by selling loans in direct form to investors. It banks indirectly through securitization. When you look at the growth in ABS, when you look at the growth in other forms of structured product, that is now how America banks. And if you go to our website and you actually look at performance, not just put out by us, by put out by others, you would see that a fair read of all of the information available is that if you look at an investment-grade corporate bond today versus an investment-grade securitized product, you would conclude that at the same ratings point, the investment-grade securitized product is a better credit, which just makes sense.

我想說的是，從宏觀角度來看，美國目前在投資者市場上的銀行業務並非主要透過直接向投資者出售貸款來運作，而是透過證券化進行間接銀行業務。看看資產支持證券（ABS）的成長，看看其他結構性產品的成長，你會發現，這就是美國銀行目前的運作方式。如果你造訪我們的網站，看看我們和其他機構發布的業績表現，你會發現，公平地解讀所有現有資訊後，你會發現，如果你將今天的投資級公司債與投資級證券化產品進行比較，你會得出這樣的結論：在相同的評級點上，投資級證券化產品的信用評級更高，這很有道理。

Because what we've seen in the economy taking place is a significant pickup in the pace of technological change, consumer change, societal change, cultural change. And therefore, we've had more single points of failure in single investment-grade corporate issues, think SVB, think Credit Suisse, versus what securitization gives you, which is the benefit of diversification, which now has more value than ever. And it's not just Apollo saying this. This is almost everyone who has looked at the topic in an academic sense.

因為我們在經濟中看到的是技術變革、消費者變革、社會變革和文化變革的顯著加速。因此，我們在單一投資等級公司發行中，例如矽谷銀行和瑞信，出現了更多的單點故障，而證券化帶來的是多元化的優勢，現在比以往任何時候都更有價值。不只是阿波羅這麼說，幾乎所有從學術角度研究過這個問題的人都這麼說。

So investors are, for the most part, exposed to private credit and directly lending and corporate format in below investment grade. They are at the early stages of fixed income replacement of taking their IG portfolio and rotating it into something that offers them at the same ratings point, 200 to 300 basis points more. Insurance companies, others have been doing this for a really long time. And I believe that investors will also enter this market in a big way. And therefore, I think there's a lot of running room in the securitized marketplace. But once again, make a distinction between investment grade, which is a vast -- a large market and below investment grade, which is an opportunistic still really interesting market, sometimes.

因此，投資者大多投資於低於投資等級的私人信貸、直接貸款和企業貸款。他們正處於固定收益替代的早期階段，即將投資等級投資組合轉換為評級相同、但收益率高出200到300個基點的投資組合。保險公司和其他機構已經這樣做了很長時間。我相信投資人也會大規模進入這個市場。因此，我認為證券化市場有很大的發展空間。但再次強調，要區分投資等級市場和低於投資等級市場，前者規模龐大，後者充滿機會，有時也確實很有吸引力。

Yes. I would just add, as you look back and think about the evolution of the direct lending or private credit market over the last decade, that's really been a single name issuer level, mostly at the sub-investment grade, as we've certainly been doing over the last several years at the IG replacement level.

是的。我想補充一點，回顧過去十年直接貸款或私人信貸市場的演變，你會發現，這實際上只是單一發行人的水平，而且大多處於投資級以下，就像過去幾年我們在投資級替代債券水平上所做的那樣。

We look at the asset-backed opportunity and see similar type of evolution over the next 5 to 10 years. It's certainly what we've been doing with our own balance sheet for the last many years. That's been a key driver of the excess spread that we've been able to deliver. But ultimately, we think the rest of the market is waking up to this and will be a -- just a huge massive market opportunity. The difference being, you really do need the specialized origination, the specialized underwriting to really be able to be in that market, and that's just a huge benefit that we have that we've built -- we've worked so hard to build over the last 5, 7, 10 years.

我們著眼於資產支持型投資機會，並預見未來5到10年將出現類似的演變。這當然也是我們多年來在資產負債表上所做的努力。這是我們能夠實現超額利差的關鍵驅動力。但最終，我們認為市場其他參與者正在意識到這一點，這將是一個巨大的市場機會。差別在於，你確實需要專業的發起和承銷才能真正進入這個市場，而這正是我們在過去5年、7年甚至10年裡努力打造的巨大優勢。

The next question is coming from Finian O'Shea of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Finian O'Shea。

Higher-level question on private investment grade. As you produce alpha there and now share that benefit between the asset manager, the annuity policyholder and outside owners of origination, for example, in AAA, do you see attention on claims to that excess return? And is there enough to go around in a more normal market environment?

關於私人投資等級的更高層次的問題。你們在私人投資等級產品中創造了阿爾法收益，現在這些收益在資產管理公司、年金保單持有人和外部發起方（例如AAA級）之間共享，您是否認為對超額收益的索賠會受到關注？在較正常的市場環境下，這些收益是否足夠分配？

So it's Marc. The short answer is no. But I have said previously the capacity to produce excess spread or more broadly, excess return per unit of risk is the limiter of growth in our business.

所以是馬克。簡而言之，答案是否定的。但我之前說過，產生超額利差的能力，或者更廣泛地說，單位風險的超額收益，是我們業務成長的限制因素。

In alternatives, if we are true to what we're doing, we only exist to provide this excess return per unit of risk. Otherwise, investors should be public and shouldn't leave with any liquidity restrictions. So it is our job to grow it and not try to grow our AUM any faster than we have excess spread per unit of risk.

在另類投資領域，如果我們堅持自己的目標，我們的存在只是為了提供單位風險的超額報酬。否則，投資者應該公開上市，並且不應該在退出時受到任何流動性限制。因此，我們的工作是擴大資產管理規模，而不是試圖讓資產管理規模的成長速度超過單位風險超額利差的成長速度。

So far, we have been good at balancing that. But we look at this all the time. This is ultimately the cap if you will, on an intelligent way to grow a long-term alternatives franchise that meets investors' needs.

到目前為止，我們一直很擅長平衡這一點。但我們始終關注這一點。這最終是一個上限，它決定了我們能否以明智的方式發展長期另類投資業務，以滿足投資者的需求。

To address, so the three categories you highlighted, right, the underlying annuity holder gets the underlying rate plus some amount of excess that allows Athene's products to be attractive. Athene captures the excess spread inherent in our origination machine to be able to do that and AAA captures the return on the platform for being a creator of this attractive product. So it's actually quite a pretty logical split as to how that waterfall works.

為了解決您強調的三個類別，基本年金持有者可以獲得基本利率加上一定額度的超額收益，這使得 Athene 的產品更具吸引力。 Athene 捕捉了我們發起機制中固有的超額利差，從而能夠做到這一點；而 AAA 則捕捉了平台作為這款極具吸引力的產品的創造者所獲得的回報。因此，這種瀑布式運作的劃分其實是相當合理的。

The next question is coming from Ben Budish of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

I wanted to ask about the private equity franchise. I know you indicated that you expect to close Fund X this summer. And looking at the last several funds, you probably won't be back in the market for some time. But just a high-level question on how you think about scaling in that business. What are some sort of natural limit to a private equity drawdown fund? And then again, understanding that the scaling in your business is -- and in a couple of other places, but just curious about how we should think about the kind of forward trajectory in terms of the next several funds in that business.

我想問一下私募股權業務。我知道您表示預計今年夏天關閉X基金。從最近的幾隻基金來看，您可能在一段時間內不會重返市場。但我還是想問一個比較宏觀的問題，您如何看待私募股權業務的擴張。私募股權回撤基金的自然限制是什麼？另外，我理解您業務的擴張——以及其他幾個領域的擴張——但我好奇的是，我們應該如何看待該業務接下來幾隻基金的未來發展軌跡。

Yes, sure. So in our core private equity business, we think we're operating at the right size. A $20 billion to $25 billion footprint gives us all the capacity we need to execute on the type of transactions that we think are most attractive. A, it's among -- it puts us among the largest pools of capital out there in the private equity business. And certainly, the types of opportunistic public to privates, the scale, stressed or distressed opportunities should they arise, that's the right size of capital, meaningfully larger and perhaps it's possible. But right now, our capacity is sized -- our execution capacity is sized to that level. And certainly, the corporate environment, that really does feel like the right size.

是的，當然。所以，在我們核心的私募股權業務中，我們認為我們的營運規模合適。 200億到250億美元的規模，賦予了我們執行我們認為最具吸引力的交易所需的全部能力。答：這讓我們躋身私募股權業務中最大的資本池之列。當然，就機會型公募股權投資的類型、規模、以及如果出現的壓力或困境機會而言，這都是合適的資本規模，甚至可能更大。但目前，我們的執行能力已經達到了這個水準。當然，就企業環境而言，這確實感覺是合適的規模。

As we think about scaling, right, it obviously will come from other ancillary and related businesses. So whether it's our S3 business, our infrastructure business, our hybrid value business, just to name a few, these are platforms that are still in the maturing phases of their scale and footprint. And we do ultimately see those reaching the next stages in the coming years. But for core private equity, we think we're sitting at that sweet spot in the $20 billion size platform.

當我們考慮規模擴張時，顯然會來自其他輔助和相關業務。無論是我們的 S3 業務、基礎設施業務或混合價值業務，這些平台的規模和覆蓋範圍都還處於成熟階段。我們最終會在未來幾年看到它們進入下一個階段。但就核心私募股權而言，我們認為我們正處於 200 億美元規模平台的最佳位置。

The next question is coming from Adam Beatty of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的亞當比提。

Wanted to ask about the pension group annuities channel for Athene. It sounds like you've got a healthy pipeline coming up there. Just wanted to get your thoughts on the impact of higher rates and maybe economic uncertainty on the level of demand and activity there? And then just how you view the attractiveness of that channel relative to other to opportunities?

想問Athene的退休金團體年金頻道。聽起來你們在這方面的投入很可觀。請問您如何看待利率上升以及經濟不確定性對那裡的需求和活動水平的影響？您如何看待該管道相對於其他機會的吸引力？

So it's Marc. So with higher rates for the most part, corporates who are the primary people who execute pension group annuity transactions, find this more attractive because they simply have to contribute less to close a gap if there is a gap in the underlying. Now I wish the equation were just that simple. But of course, it depends how they were positioned. Because if they were positioned in long-duration bonds and rates go up, their gap gets wider. If they were positioned in equities and equities sell off, their gap gets wider.

所以是馬克。在大多數情況下，利率較高的情況下，作為退休金團體年金交易主要執行方的企業會發現這更具吸引力，因為如果標的資產出現缺口，他們只需繳納較少的資金就能彌補缺口。我希望這個等式真的這麼簡單。當然，這取決於他們的部位。因為如果他們持有長期債券，利率上升，他們的缺口就會擴大。如果他們持有股票，股票下跌，他們的缺口也會擴大。

But for the most part, corporations considering pension group annuities, have been guiding towards a strategy that gets them to a more market neutral place, think shorter duration fixed income, less esoteric in the equity business. And so the benefit of higher rates is for this business overall a net positive.

但大多數考慮到退休金團體年金的公司，都傾向於一種更市場中性的策略，例如考慮期限較短的固定收益產品，而不是像股票業務那樣深奧難懂。因此，較高的利率對這類業務整體而言是淨利多。

This is a trust business that comes from having lots of capital, by having an institutional capability to pass independent fiduciaries and by having the know-how to do and onboard 100,000 clients at a time. There is a handful of companies in our industry who have met all those requirements. It is a competitive but less competitive market than the origination business, which itself is significantly less competitive than the inorganic buying of blocks business, which I've already given you my comments on, which I think is in its final throes.

信託業務的成功源自於雄厚的資本，源自於其擁有透過獨立受託人的機構能力，以及擁有一次性吸收10萬名客戶的專業知識。我們行業中只有少數幾家公司滿足了所有這些要求。信託市場競爭激烈，但不如信託發起業務那麼激烈，而信託發起業務本身的競爭力又遠遜於非有機購買區塊業務，我已經就後者發表了評論，我認為後者正處於最後的掙扎階段。

So I -- for one, I'm excited about pension group annuities. I think the team at Athene is second to none and the pipeline is as it should be.

所以，首先，我對退休金團體年金很感興趣。我認為Athene的團隊是首屈一指的，而且他們的產品線也非常完善。

Thank you. That concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I will now return the floor to Noah Gunn for any additional or closing comments.

謝謝。今天電話會議的問答環節到此結束。現在，請諾亞岡恩 (Noah Gunn) 發表補充或結束演講。

Great. Thanks for your help this morning, Donna, and thanks to everyone for joining our call. If you have any questions or feedback on our call today, feel free to reach out to us directly, and we look forward to speaking with you all again next quarter.

太好了！唐娜，謝謝你今天早上的幫助，也謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。如果您對今天的電話會議有任何疑問或回饋，請隨時直接聯繫我們，我們期待下個季度再次與大家交流。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines at this time or log off the webcast and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們，先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的活動到此結束。您可以暫時斷開連接或退出網路直播，享受剩餘的一天。