瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Valero Energy Corp. First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2024 年第一季財報會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人、投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早安，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的執行長兼總裁萊恩·里格斯 (Lane Riggs)； Jason Fraser，我們的執行副總裁兼財務長；加里‧西蒙斯 (Gary Simmons)，我們的執行副總裁兼營運長；以及瓦萊羅高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call.

如果您尚未收到收益報告並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站 Investorvalero.com 上找到一份副本。收益發布中還附有表格，提供有關我們業務部門的額外財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的調節和揭露。

If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請隨時在電話會議後聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

現在我想請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，它表示，新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的因素。

Now I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給萊恩，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report strong financial results for the first quarter despite heavy planned maintenance across our refining system. Our team's ability to optimize and maximize throughput while undertaking maintenance activities illustrates the benefits from our long-standing commitment to safe and reliable operations.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。儘管我們的煉油系統計劃進行大量維護，但我們很高興地報告第一季強勁的財務業績。我們的團隊在進行維護活動時優化和最大化吞吐量的能力說明了我們對安全可靠營運的長期承諾所帶來的好處。

Refining margins remain supported by tight product balances with supply constrained by seasonally heavy refining turnarounds and geopolitical events. Product demand was strong across our wholesale system with diesel demand higher and gasoline demand about the same as last year.

煉油利潤仍受到產品平衡緊張的支撐，供應受到季節性煉油檢修和地緣政治事件的限制。我們的批發系統的產品需求強勁，柴油需求增加，汽油需求與去年基本持平。

We continue to execute strategic projects and enhance earnings capability of our business and expand our long-term competitive advantage. DGD sustainable aviation fuel or SAF project at Port Arthur is progressing ahead of schedule and is now expected to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們持續執行策略項目，增強業務獲利能力，擴大長期競爭優勢。位於旅順的 DGD 永續航空燃料或 SAF 專案進展提前，預計將於 2024 年第四季投入營運。

With the completion of this project, Diamond Green Diesel is expected to become one of the largest manufacturers of SAF in the world. In addition, we are pursuing shorter cash cycle projects that optimize and capitalize on opportunities and improve margins around our existing refining assets. These projects are focused on increasing feedstock flexibility, optimizing the value of our product mix and maximizing utilization of existing conversion capacity.

隨著該計畫的完成，鑽石綠柴油有望成為全球最大的SAF製造商之一。此外，我們正在尋求更短的現金週期項目，以優化和利用機會並提高我們現有煉油資產的利潤率。這些項目的重點是提高原料靈活性、優化我們產品組合的價值以及最大限度地利用現有轉換能力。

On the financial side, we were paid the $167 million outstanding principal amount of our 1.2% senior notes that matured on March 15. And in January, we increased the quarterly cash dividend on our common stock from $1.02 per share to $1.07 per share.

在財務方面，我們收到了 3 月 15 日到期的 1.2% 優先票據的 1.67 億美元未償本金。

Looking ahead, we expect refining margins to remain supported by tight product balances and seasonably low product inventories ahead of the driving season. Longer term, product demand is expected to exceed supply even with the startup of new refineries this year and the limited announced capacity additions beyond 2025.

展望未來，我們預計煉油利潤率將繼續受到產品平衡緊張和駕駛季節前季節性較低的產品庫存的支持。從長遠來看，即使今年新煉油廠啟動，並且 2025 年後宣布的產能增加有限，產品需求預計仍將超過供應。

In closing, we remain focused on things that have been in the hallmark of our strategy, maintaining operating excellence, executing our projects well, disciplined around our capital investments and our commitment to shareholder returns.

最後，我們仍然專注於我們策略的標誌，保持卓越運營，良好執行我們的項目，嚴格遵守我們的資本投資和對股東回報的承諾。

So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

那麼，荷馬，我會把電話轉給你。

Thanks, Lane. For the first quarter of 2024, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1.2 billion or $3.75 per share compared to $3.1 billion or $8.29 per share for the first quarter of 2023.

謝謝，萊恩。 2024 年第一季度，瓦萊羅股東應佔淨利為 12 億美元，即每股 3.75 美元，而 2023 年第一季為 31 億美元，即每股 8.29 美元。

First quarter 2024 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1.3 billion or $3.82 per share compared to $3.1 billion or $8.27 per share for the first quarter of 2023. The refining segment reported $1.7 billion of operating income for the first quarter of 2024 compared to $4.1 billion for the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季調整後歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨利為13 億美元，即每股3.82 美元，而2023 年第一季為31 億美元，即每股8.27 美元。第一季營業收入為17 億美元，而2023 年第一季為4.1 美元。

Refining throughput volumes in the first quarter of 2024 averaged 2.8 million barrels per day. Throughput capacity utilization was 87% in the first quarter of 2024. Refining cash operating expenses were $4.71 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024 lower than guidance of $5.10 per barrel, primarily attributed to lower energy costs and higher throughput.

2024 年第一季煉油吞吐量平均為 280 萬桶/日。 2024 年第一季的產能利用率為 87%。

Renewable Diesel segment operating income was $190 million for the first quarter of 2024 compared to $205 million for the first quarter of 2023. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 3.7 million gallons per day in the first quarter of 2024, which was 741,000 gallons per day higher than the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季再生柴油部門營業收入為1.9 億美元，而2023 年第一季為2.05 億美元。銷量高出741,000 加侖。

The higher sales volumes in the first quarter of 2024 were due to the impact of additional volumes from the DGD Port Arthur plant which started up in the fourth quarter of 2022 and was in the process of ramping up rates in the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季銷量的增加是由於 DGD 亞瑟港工廠銷量增加的影響，該工廠於 2022 年第四季度啟動，並正在 2023 年第一季提高產量。

Operating income was lower than the first quarter of 2023 due to lower renewable diesel margin in the first quarter of 2024. The ethanol segment reported $10 million of operating income for the first quarter of 2024 compared to $39 million for the first quarter of 2023.

由於 2024 年第一季再生柴油利潤率較低，營業收入低於 2023 年第一季。

Adjusted operating income was $39 million for the first quarter of 2024. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.5 million gallons per day in the first quarter of 2024, which was 283,000 gallons per day higher than the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季調整後營業收入為 3,900 萬美元。

For the first quarter of 2024, G&A expenses were $258 million, net interest expense was $140 million, depreciation and amortization expense was $695 million and income tax expense was $353 million. The effective tax rate was 21%. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.8 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Included in this amount was $160 million unfavorable impact from working capital and $122 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD.

2024 年第一季，一般管理費用為 2.58 億美元，淨利息費用為 1.4 億美元，折舊和攤提費用為 6.95 億美元，所得稅費用為 3.53 億美元。有效稅率為21%。 2024 年第一季度，經營活動提供的淨現金為18 億美元。 。

Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.9 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Regarding investing activities, we made $661 million of capital investments in the first quarter of 2024, of which $563 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business.

排除這些項目，2024 年第一季經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為19 億美元。業務，包括週轉成本、催化劑成本和監管合規成本，其餘部分用於業務成長。

Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD and other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $619 million in the first quarter of 2024.

不計入 DGD 的其他合資成員份額和其他可變利益實體的資本投資，2024 年第一季瓦萊羅的資本投資為 6.19 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $1.4 billion to our stockholders in the first quarter of 2024, of which $356 million was paid as dividends and $1 billion was for the purchase of approximately 6.6 million shares of common stock resulting in a payout ratio of 74% for the quarter. Through share repurchases, we have reduced our share count by over 20% since year-end 2021.

轉向融資活動。 2024 年第一季度，我們向股東返還 14 億美元，其中 3.56 億美元作為股息支付，10 億美元用於購買約 660 萬股普通股，導致該季度的派息率為 74%。透過股票回購，自 2021 年底以來，我們已將股票數量減少了 20% 以上。

With respect to our balance sheet, as Lane mentioned, we repaid the $167 million outstanding principal amount of our 1.2% senior notes that matured on March 15. We ended the quarter with $8.5 billion of total debt, $2.4 billion of finance lease obligations and $4.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents.

至於我們的資產負債表，正如萊恩所提到的，我們償還了3 月15 日到期的1.2% 優先票據的1.67 億美元未償本金。融資租賃債務為24 億美元，融資租賃債務為4.9 美元。

The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 17% as of March 31, 2024. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的負債與資本比率為 17%。

Turning to guidance. We still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2024 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance and joint venture investments. About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth with approximately half of the growth capital towards our low carbon fuels businesses and half towards refining projects.

轉向指導。我們仍預期 2024 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑、監管合規和合資企業投資的支出。其中約 16 億美元分配用於維持業務和平衡成長，其中約一半的成長資本用於我們的低碳燃料業務，一半用於煉油項目。

For modeling our second quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.79 million to 1.84 million barrels per day. Mid-Continent at 410,000 to 430,000 barrels per day. West Coast at 245,000 to 265,000 barrels per day and North Atlantic at 430,000 to 450,000 barrels per day.

為了對第二季的營運進行建模，我們預計煉油吞吐量將落在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸為每天 179 萬桶至 184 萬桶。中大陸產量為每天 410,000 至 430,000 桶。西海岸為每天 245,000 至 265,000 桶，北大西洋為每天 430,000 至 450,000 桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the second quarter to be approximately $4.55 per barrel. With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2024. Operating expenses in 2024 should be $0.45 per gallon, which includes $0.18 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們預計第二季煉油現金營運支出約為每桶 4.55 美元。對於再生柴油領域，我們預計 2024 年銷售量約為 12 億加侖。

Our Ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.5 million gallons per day in the second quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.38 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們的乙醇部門預計第二季每天生產 450 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.38 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。

For the second quarter, net interest expense should be about $140 million and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $710 million. For 2024, we expect G&A expenses to be approximately $975 million.

第二季的淨利息支出應約為 1.4 億美元，總折舊和攤提費用應約為 7.1 億美元。 2024 年，我們預計一般管理費用約為 9.75 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. (Operator Instructions).

我們的開場白就到此結束。 （操作員說明）。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question is coming from Theresa Chen of Barclays.

（操作員說明） 今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

I want to get a sense of your product supply and demand outlook from here, maybe talking on Lane's earlier comments. And specifically, what is happening with respect to diesel and jet margins from the recent pullback? And where do you think we'll go from the here?

我想從這裡了解你們的產品供需前景，或許可以談談萊恩之前的評論。具體來說，最近的回調導致柴油和噴射機的利潤率發生了什麼變化？你認為我們接下來會去哪裡？

It's Gary. I can -- I'll give you some insight as to what we're seeing in the market today and then some thoughts on your final question. Overall, we continue to see strong light product demand. In our system, we've seen gasoline sales trending at levels equal to last year. Diesel sales in our system are actually trending about 2% higher than last year.

是加里。我可以——我會給你一些關於我們今天在市場上看到的情況的見解，然後對你的最後一個問題提出一些想法。總體而言，我們持續看到強勁的輕質產品需求。在我們的系統中，我們看到汽油銷售趨勢與去年持平。我們系統中的柴油銷售量實際上比去年高出 2% 左右。

So I think when we look at all the data, we would expect gasoline demand to be flat to slightly up from last year. Vehicle models travel data is encouraging, would indicate we could see some gasoline demand surprise to the upside.

因此，我認為，當我們查看所有數據時，我們預計汽油需求將與去年持平或略有上升。車型出行數據令人鼓舞，這顯示我們可能會看到一些汽油需求意外上升。

Diesel demand flat to slightly down compared to last year. However, again, some of the freight indices appear to be turning and indicate we could start seeing better demand. And then jet fuel demand up year-over-year.

與去年相比，柴油需求持平或略有下降。然而，一些貨運指數似乎再次出現轉變，表明我們可能會開始看到更好的需求。然後航空燃油需求逐年上升。

I think that isn't really consistent with the sell-off in distillates like you're seeing. And I think some of that's just attributable to the fact that the market appears to be reacting to headlines. So in particular, you have the drone attacks in Russia, diesel gets very strong.

我認為這與您所看到的餾分油的拋售並不一致。我認為部分原因是市場似乎對頭條新聞做出了反應。特別是在俄羅斯發生無人機襲擊時，柴油變得非常強勁。

But then there's a lag in the supply chain. So the physical markets aren't really seeing that interruption in diesel. In fact, Russian exports following the drone attacks was actually higher. And so now we're finally getting to the point where Russian exports are starting to fall off, but the markets have kind of dismissed that, and we've sold off pretty hard.

但供應鏈卻有落後。因此，現貨市場並沒有真正看到柴油的中斷。事實上，無人機襲擊後俄羅斯的出口實際上更高。所以現在我們終於到了俄羅斯出口開始下降的地步，但市場有點忽略了這一點，我們已經大力拋售了。

I think diesel is too weak. And the 2 things I would point to on diesel being too weak, hydroskimming margins in Europe are negative, cracking margins in Singapore are negative and unless something significant has happened on the demand side that we don't see, we need that capacity to run, which would indicate margins are going to have to get stronger from here on.

我覺得柴油太弱了。我要指出的兩件事是柴油太弱，歐洲的加氫撇油利潤為負，新加坡的裂解利潤為負，除非需求方面發生了我們看不到的重大事件，否則我們需要這種能力來運行，這表明利潤率從現在開始必須變得更強。

Really helpful. And maybe following up on the point about Russia, and I appreciate you going through the dynamics on the diesel exports and such. Maybe looking at the naptha side of things. So if the naptha export starts to fall off as well, what does that imply for octane economics? And in light of maybe more naphtha from some of the new refining capacity added, like what is the net impact and the translation to gasoline margins as a result?

真的很有幫助。也許跟進有關俄羅斯的問題，我感謝您了解柴油出口等方面的動態。也許看看石腦油方面。那麼，如果石腦油出口也開始下降，這對辛烷經濟又意味著什麼？鑑於新增的一些煉油產能可能會產生更多的石腦油，那麼淨影響和對汽油利潤的轉換是什麼？

Yes. So I think in order to see any meaningful changes in the price of naphtha or discount to gasoline, you really need to see pet-chem demand pick back up for naphtha and a lot of that is just tied to crude flat price. As long as crude flat price is high, it's hard for naphtha to compete as a feedstock into pet-chems.

是的。因此，我認為，為了看到石腦油價格或汽油折扣出現任何有意義的變化，您確實需要看到石腦油的石油化學需求回升，而其中很大一部分與原油統一價格相關。只要原油統一價格很高，石腦油就很難作為石油化學原料參與競爭。

And so when that happens, then naphtha is trying to find a home into gasoline, which creates strong octane in order to be able to get it blended into the gasoline pool.

因此，當這種情況發生時，石腦油就會試圖在汽油中找到一個歸宿，它會產生很強的辛烷值，以便能夠將其混合到汽油池中。

The next question is coming from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Another really strong quarter. And I wanted to ask about the cash flow payout as you're well above the numbers that you've targeted as the floor and so I guess the $1 billion of repurchase level, do we view that as a sustainable run rate? And how do you think about how investors should anchor to a payout guidance?

另一個非常強勁的季度。我想問一下現金流支出，因為您遠高於您設定的下限目標數字，所以我猜回購水準為 10 億美元，我們是否認為這是一個可持續的運行率？您如何看待投資人應如何錨定支付指導？

Neil, this is Jason. I'm going to ask Homer to address that question.

尼爾，這是傑森。我要請荷馬回答這個問題。

Yes, Neil, I think given the strength of our balance sheet in the first quarter and the fact that we're not really looking to build more cash, we had a pretty strong payout at 74%. And you'll remember, last quarter was 73%, which ended the year at 60%. So I think you can think of the 40% to 50% range as a long-term through-cycle commitment.

是的，尼爾，我認為考慮到我們第一季資產負債表的實力以及我們並不真正希望建立更多現金的事實，我們的支出相當強勁，達到 74%。您會記得，上個季度為 73%，今年年底為 60%。所以我認為你可以將 40% 到 50% 的範圍視為長期的全週期承諾。

But in periods where fundamentals are strong, balance sheet is good, like it is now, and sustaining growth CapEx and the dividend is covered, you can think of that as a floor. So the 40% to 50% as a floor and I think reasonably expect any excess cash flow to continue to go towards buybacks.

但在基本面強勁、資產負債表良好（就像現在一樣）、持續成長的資本支出和股息得到保障的時期，你可以將其視為底線。因此，40% 至 50% 作為下限，我認為合理預期任何多餘的現金流量將繼續用於回購。

Okay. That's helpful, Homer. And then follow-up is just on DGD. There was a pull forward of the SAF projects. So it looks like project is tracking well for '24 start-up. So just how -- once it comes into service, what's the back of the envelope of how we should think about the incremental economics? And what type of premium margins do you think you could sustain on SAF barrels?

好的。這很有幫助，荷馬。然後後續就是 DGD。 SAF 專案有所推進。所以看起來 24 年啟動的專案進展順利。那麼，一旦它投入使用，我們該如何看待增量經濟學呢？您認為 SAF 桶可以維持哪種類型的溢價利潤？

Yes, this is Eric. The project -- like you said, the project construction is going well. Start-up will be in the fourth quarter. As far as what we see in uplift, I think if you look to see what the state and federal tax program benefits are, there's a lot of credits that have been stated in the IRA, whether it's 45Z or BTC or PTC. And then in Europe, you've got the Argus quote that I'll kind of give you a good feel of what that product is going to be worth.

是的，這是埃里克。專案——正如你所說，專案建設進展順利。啟動將於第四季進行。就我們所看到的提升而言，我認為如果你看看州和聯邦稅收計劃的福利是什麼，IRA 中已經規定了很多抵免額，無論是 45Z 還是 BTC 或 PTC。然後在歐洲，你會得到阿格斯的報價，我會讓你很好地了解該產品的價值。

We've got strong interest in sales, and we do not see a problem moving it at returns that are going to meet our project return threshold.

我們對銷售有濃厚的興趣，我們認為以達到我們的專案回報閾值的回報來轉移它沒有問題。

The next question is coming from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Yes. Probably to come back on some of the macro stuff here. Crude differentials, we've got some, I guess, discipline out of OPEC, we've got TMX starting up, I guess, almost any day now, we have some tightness from some other places that typically have exported heavier crudes to the Gulf Coast. So just curious what you're seeing on the crude, call it, availability front and expectations on differentials?

是的。可能會回到這裡一些宏觀的東西。原油差異，我想，我們有一些來自 OPEC 的紀律，我們已經啟動了 TMX，我想，現在幾乎每一天，我們都面臨著來自其他一些通常向海灣出口重質原油的地方的緊張海岸。所以只是好奇你在原油上看到了什麼，稱之為，可用性前沿和差異預期？

Yes, Roger, this is Gary. I think we saw crude differentials move a little bit wider in the first quarter, which we expected and that was mainly just driven by demand with heavy turnaround season in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Demand was off a little bit and allowed the differentials to widen.

是的，羅傑，這是加里。我認為我們看到第一季原油價差略有擴大，這符合我們的預期，這主要是由美國墨西哥灣沿岸週轉季的需求所推動的。需求略有下降，導致價差擴大。

But we believe that the differentials will be relatively tight through most of the year until you get the OPEC production back on the market. At least the consultant supply-demand balances would indicate maybe third or fourth quarter of this year you'll start to see OPEC production ramp back up. I would tell you, we're not having any trouble in terms of availability of feedstock, it's just more narrow differentials than what we would like.

但我們認為，在歐佩克產量重新推出市場之前，今年大部分時間的差異將相對較小。至少顧問的供需平衡表明，也許今年第三或第四季你將開始看到歐佩克產量回升。我想告訴你，我們在原料供應方面沒有遇到任何問題，只是差異比我們想要的更窄。

Fair enough. And then to follow up on your earlier comments about the structure of the diesel market, the need for cracks to go up. This time last year, we saw gasoline, for a little while, move above -- gasoline cracks move above diesel cracks, we have that seasonally again. But is there any reason that you would lean into a max gasoline over a max diesel or a blended sort of outlook relative to what you've been doing over the last couple of years here?

很公平。然後跟進您先前關於柴油市場結構的評論，即裂縫上升的必要性。去年的這個時候，我們看到汽油在一段時間內移動到了上方——汽油裂紋移動到了柴油裂紋上方，我們再次季節性地看到了這種情況。但是，您是否有任何理由傾向於選擇最大汽油而不是最大柴油，或者相對於您過去幾年在這裡所做的事情採取混合的前景？

No. I think a lot of that gets driven by availability of intermediate feedstocks, VGO. In a tight VGO market, then you're kind of forced more to swing either gasoline or diesel. So far, availability of VGO has been okay. We've been able to fill all the conversion units, but we'll have to see how that goes moving forward.

不。在供應緊張的 VGO 市場中，您將被迫更多地選擇汽油或柴油。到目前為止，VGO 的可用性還不錯。我們已經能夠填充所有轉換單位，但我們必須看看進展如何。

The next question is coming from Manav Gupta of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

Congrats on a strong quarter again, guys. My first question here is the bear thesis on refining somewhere was (inaudible) and it looks like it's not played out these assets from what we read and hear, one of them doesn't have enough hydrogen, the other doesn't even have an FCC. So most likely will not be providing products to the market, maybe even year-end 2024.

夥計們，恭喜你們再次取得了強勁的季度表現。我的第一個問題是關於某處煉油的熊市論文（聽不清楚），從我們讀到和聽到的內容看來，這些資產並沒有發揮出來，其中一個沒有足夠的氫氣，另一個甚至沒有美國聯邦通訊委員會。因此，很可能不會向市場提供產品，甚至可能到 2024 年底為止。

But my point is, even if they do start providing the products to the market somewhere in 2025, are these the last 2 ones that you are aware of or there's a big wave coming after this? So I'm trying to understand is, even if these 2 come on, they don't really change the global supply dynamics. So after this, again, we could see the market tightening up again. So if you could help us out there?

但我的觀點是，即使他們確實在 2025 年的某個時候開始向市場提供產品，這些是您所知道的最後兩個產品還是在此之後會出現一波大浪潮？所以我試圖理解的是，即使這兩者出現，它們也不會真正改變全球供應動態。因此，在此之後，我們可能會再次看到市場再次收緊。那你能幫助我們嗎？

Yes. So we see it exactly like you've described. This year was the year where you had kind of a peak in terms of new capacity additions. And then from this point forward, you get to where global petroleum demand outpaces new refinery capacity additions significantly, and we see several years of tightness.

是的。所以我們看到的情況與您所描述的完全一樣。今年是新增產能達到高峰的一年。然後從現在開始，全球石油需求將大大超過新煉油廠產能的增加，我們將看到幾年的緊張局面。

Perfect. The other point is that we generally see big projects get delayed, cost overruns, you are somewhere unique. Your projects get announced and the actual start date keeps moving forward from the announcement, which is absolutely unique to you. And I'm just trying to understand like -- how are you doing this? And I'm hoping I get an answer which is more than we have the best people because we already know that. So help us understand how are you pulling forward your projects?

完美的。另一點是，我們通常會看到大型專案被推遲、成本超支，而你卻是獨一無二的。您的專案被宣布，實際開始日期不斷向前推進，這對您來說絕對是獨一無二的。我只是想了解──你是怎麼做到的？我希望我能得到一個比我們最優秀的人更多的答案，因為我們已經知道了。那麼請幫助我們了解您是如何推進您的專案的？

Manav, it's Lane. That's what I was going to say. But it speaks to the culture. Our culture is very much about high discipline, high accountability and teamwork. We make sure we get the right people into the right jobs and hold them accountable and making sure that they're -- and when I say the right people, they have to be people who are, a, competent; and b, they're willing to work with the other team members who may not necessarily be under them or adjacent to them and ultimately working on behalf of Valero.

馬納夫，我是萊恩。這就是我要說的。但它與文化有關。我們的文化非常強調嚴格的紀律、高度的責任感和團隊合作。我們確保讓合適的人擔任合適的工作，讓他們承擔責任，並確保他們——當我說合適的人時，他們必須是有能力的人； b，他們願意與其他團隊成員合作，這些成員不一定在他們的領導下或與他們相鄰，並最終代表瓦萊羅工作。

And we have a high level of visibility with upper-level management because we're a pretty flat organization. So we all know the status of the projects. We all understand where we are in the development cycle and anything -- once the project starts. But I mean it's not like there's -- ultimately, it's about alignment, competency and accountability and that's really the secret sauce. You just got to execute.

我們對高階管理人員有很高的了解，因為我們是一個相當扁平的組織。所以我們都知道項目的狀況。一旦專案開始，我們都知道我們處於開發週期的哪個階段以及任何事情。但我的意思是，這並不是這樣的——最終，這是關於一致性、能力和責任，這確實是秘密武器。你只需要執行。

The next question is coming from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe a follow-up a little bit on some of the crude mix questions from earlier. I mean with TMX, there's a lot of focus on what the impact is going to be, particularly on complex Mid-Con refineries that are going to have to run more light sweet crude going forward.

也許是對之前一些粗略的混合問題的一些後續行動。我的意思是，對於 TMX，人們非常關注其影響，特別是對於複雜的中型煉油廠，這些煉油廠未來將不得不運行更多的輕質低硫原油。

But in some ways, it's similar to what's happened across the broader refining system that's been running more and more light crude across a system that's not always optimized for this. I mean can you talk about what you think this might mean for the optimization of the global refining system with more light sweet crude, what sort of impact does this have on utilization or optimization or general supply as we think about broader market?

但在某些方面，這與更廣泛的煉油系統所發生的情況類似，該系統在一個不總是為此優化的系統中運行越來越多的輕質原油。我的意思是，您能否談談您認為這對於使用更多輕質低硫原油來優化全球煉油系統可能意味著什麼？會產生什麼樣的影響？

Yes. So this is Gary. So globally, TMX doesn't have that much of an impact. It's just rebalancing the barrels. I think you see some of the heavier barrels from South America that were going to the West Coast won't travel there and they'll probably go more to the Far East and some more TMX barrels starting to go to the West Coast.

是的。這就是加里。所以在全球範圍內，TMX 並沒有那麼大的影響。這只是重新平衡桶。我想你會看到一些來自南美的較重的桶將運往西海岸，但不會運往那裡，它們可能會更多地運往遠東，而更多的 TMX 桶將開始運往西海岸。

So globally, not a big impact. We definitely see that hard-to-see differentials will come in because for a period of time here, we'll have the logistics to completely clear Western Canadian production and that could cause some switching of Mid-Continent refiners that they back off on some of the heavies and go to a lighter diet.

所以在全球範圍內，影響力並不大。我們肯定會看到難以看到的差異將會出現，因為在一段時間內，我們將擁有完全清理加拿大西部生產的物流，這可能會導致中大陸煉油廠的一些轉變，他們會放棄一些減少大重量飲食並採取清淡飲食。

And yes, to your -- basically to your comment, certainly in the Gulf Coast as we try to run a lighter diet that's resulted in lower overall utilization because we hit light limits on the crude units.

是的，基本上是您的評論，當然是在墨西哥灣沿岸，因為我們試圖實行較清淡的飲食，但由於我們對原油單位的限制較少，導致整體利用率較低。

And that's probably something that's happening on a broader sets across the system with general global crude mix being lighter, right?

這可能是在整個系統中更廣泛的範圍內發生的事情，因為整體全球原油組合較輕，對吧？

Yes. I think overall, the average crude gravity is up about 1.5 numbers, which certainly results in lower utilization because especially most new capacity all was designed for medium and heavy sour crudes.

是的。我認為總體而言，平均原油比重上升了約 1.5 個數字，這肯定會導致利用率降低，因為尤其是大多數新產能都是為中質和重質含硫原油設計的。

Maybe switching gears to Diamond Green Diesel. I mean as you think about the broader -- obviously, we've been through a soft spot here on renewable diesel margin with RINs and LCFS pricing low. As you think about the outlook into the back part of this year and into 2025, can you maybe walk through how you view some of the moving pieces that could tighten up that market and improve kind of the relative profitability of whether it's renewable diesel or then eventually SAF in 2025?

也許換成鑽石綠柴油。我的意思是，當你考慮更廣泛的情況時，顯然，我們在再生柴油利潤方面一直處於弱勢，RIN 和 LCFS 定價較低。當您思考今年下半年和 2025 年的前景時，您能否談談您如何看待一些可能收緊市場並提高可再生柴油或其他柴油的相對盈利能力的變化最終在 2025 年實現 SAF？

Yes. I think the rest of this year, it's really going to be a question of what some of the other startups look like. We've seen in the news, a lot of announcements of slowdowns, project delays, even some shutdowns. If that capacity comes off-line or slows down, how does that balance versus some of the projects that are starting up in the overall D4 RIN balance at the end of the year?

是的。我認為今年剩下的時間裡，其他一些新創公司的情況確實會成為一個問題。我們在新聞中看到了很多關於經濟放緩、專案延遲、甚至一些工廠停工的公告。如果該容量離線或減慢，與年底 D4 RIN 整體平衡中啟動的一些專案相比，這種平衡如何？

It's a little difficult to throw a dart and know exactly how that's going to end. What we can see is veg oil, whether it's BD or RD is negative. Ag products all look very long right now. We do see -- we were expecting more competition on waste oils. We haven't seen as much of that as we thought we would considering the announced start-ups. So how that balances out for the rest of the year, the thing there is we don't see any change in the RVO obligations. So it's still a question of how much capacity is going into a fixed credit bank in a fixed obligation.

扔出一個飛鏢並確切地知道它會如何結束是有點困難的。我們看到的是植物油，無論是BD或RD都是負值。現在農業產品看起來都很長。我們確實看到了——我們預計廢油方面會有更多競爭。我們還沒有看到像我們想像的那麼多的東西，我們會考慮宣布的新創公司。那麼今年剩餘時間的平衡情況如何，我們沒有看到 RVO 義務有任何變化。因此，固定信貸銀行在固定債務方面有多少能力仍然是一個問題。

And so longer term, if you look at '25, I would think the long-term outlook of RD is still positive because you look at the number of LCFS programs that are still being contemplated by legislation this year, the ramps in Canada and the U.K. continue to be strong. The SAF mandates that are kicking in, in 2025 in Europe, the U.K. are going to create demand.

因此，從長遠來看，如果你看看 25 年，我認為 RD 的長期前景仍然是積極的，因為你看看今年立法仍在考慮的 LCFS 計劃的數量、加拿大的坡道和英國繼續保持強勢。 2025 年即將生效的 SAF 指令將在歐洲、英國創造需求。

And for us, diversification of your product away from California and your ability to diversify your product slate into SAF are going to be very beneficial to DGD. So I still like the longer-term outlook of '25 and beyond. '24 is a little hard to predict. I think it's still -- it probably still stays long in the D4s, net-net. So it might continue to be sort of a tough year.

對我們來說，您的產品在加州以外的多元化以及您將產品多樣化到 SAF 的能力將對 DGD 非常有利。所以我仍然看好 25 年及以後的長期前景。 '24 有點難以預測。我認為它仍然 - 它可能仍然在 D4 中停留很長時間，net-net。因此，今年可能仍然是艱難的一年。

We think the second quarter from a margin standpoint looks a little better from price lag standpoint, but the back half is still hard to tell with all the moving pieces. But long term, I think you still see a positive outlook, sort of '25 and beyond.

我們認為，從利潤率的角度來看，從價格滯後的角度來看，第二季看起來要好一些，但由於所有的變化，後半段仍然很難說。但從長遠來看，我認為你仍然會看到積極的前景，有點像 25 歲及以後。

The next question is coming from John Royall of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。

So my first question is on turnarounds, I guess, for Valero and maybe in terms of expectations for the broader industry. Given you and others had a heavy turnaround quarter in the spring, should we expect a lighter fall season and maybe that global supply won't come on as expected, but we could see more supply in the second half coming out of the U.S. because it just lower turnaround than usual?

因此，我想我的第一個問題是關於瓦萊羅的扭虧為盈，或許還有對更廣泛行業的期望。鑑於您和其他人在春季經歷了嚴重的周轉季度，我們是否應該預期秋季會較淡，也許全球供應不會按預期進行，但我們可能會看到下半年更多的供應來自美國，因為它只是週轉率比平常低？

John, this is Greg Bram. I'll talk about our turnaround activity. Particularly, in the first quarter, we had a pretty heavy turnaround load. You can really see that when you look at our throughput, particularly the Gulf Coast through being much lower. It's just reflective of the work that we had going on.

約翰，這是格雷格·布拉姆。我將談談我們的周轉活動。特別是在第一季度，我們的周轉負擔相當重。當您查看我們的吞吐量時，您確實可以看到這一點，特別是墨西哥灣沿岸的吞吐量要低得多。這只是我們正在進行的工作的反映。

Looking forward, as you know, we've always got turnaround activity going on in our system to varying degrees. The first quarter tends to be the heaviest period, other periods of the year will be lighter, and that's just kind of driven by what we see from a margin standpoint. And there are certain times of the year like the holiday season where you're tending not to try to go into that kind of work that's very intensive.

展望未來，如您所知，我們的系統始終在不同程度上進行週轉活動。第一季往往是最繁忙的時期，一年中的其他時期將會較輕，這只是我們從利潤率角度來看的推動因素。一年中的某些時候，例如假期，你往往不會嘗試從事那種非常密集的工作。

As far as different periods of time, I won't speak so much to our plans. We have the same information others see about industry turnarounds. It looks like the fourth quarter will be kind of more in the typical range of outages, but it's early to tell. A lot of things will change between now and when we get to the fall season and so we'll see where that lands. But people at least are indicating something that looks like the more typical turnaround level of activity.

至於不同時期我們的計劃我就不多說了。我們擁有其他人看到的有關行業轉型的相同資訊。看起來第四季的停電情況會更多，但現在下結論還為時過早。從現在到秋季，很多事情都會發生變化，所以我們會看看具體情況如何。但人們至少表明了一些看起來像是更典型的周轉活動水平的東西。

Great. And then I just had a follow-up on Neil's question on returns of capital and probably for Jason or Homer. You're essentially at a full free cash flow payout now. That's what we saw in the first quarter and Homer's comments suggested that -- that's the expectation going forward.

偉大的。然後我剛剛對尼爾關於資本回報的問題進行了跟進，可能還對傑森或荷馬進行了跟進。您現在基本上獲得了全額自由現金流支付。這就是我們在第一季看到的情況，荷馬的評論表明——這就是未來的預期。

I know you've characterized the 40% to 50% of the floor, but is there any thought to changing that framework given that you have your balance sheet where you want it and you seem to be kind of in this new era on returns of capital that don't seem to be kind of peeling back to the old way of looking at things?

我知道你已經描述了40% 到50% 的底線，但是考慮到你的資產負債表處於你想要的位置，而且你似乎在這個新時代的回報率方面有什麼想法，所以你是否有改變這個框架的想法？

Well, this is Jason. Yes, I can take a stab at that. I mean, we do think about that. And really, we ask you to look more at our actions rather than that statement and -- because we've been above it in the majority of time over the past several years. But we also view that more as a long-term indication through the cycle.

嗯，這是傑森。是的，我可以嘗試一下。我的意思是，我們確實考慮過這一點。事實上，我們要求你們更多地關注我們的行動而不是聲明——因為在過去幾年的大部分時間裡我們都超越了它。但我們也認為這更像是整個週期的長期跡象。

I know we talk about sometimes that's a target and it is, but we don't see any problem with being above it over a consistent period of time, and you should expect us to kind of behave as you said, the last couple of quarters are probably the best indication of the future is how we're going to behave with regard to cash.

我知道我們有時會談論這是一個目標，而且確實如此，但我們認為在持續一段時間內高於目標沒有任何問題，您應該期望我們在過去幾個季度中表現得像您所說的那樣未來的最佳跡象可能是我們將如何對待現金。

The next question is coming from Jo Laetsch of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Jo Laetsch。

Congrats on a strong quarter. So I wanted to go back to SAF. Are you seeing enough demand from customers to potentially support an additional project? And then if so, would this -- would any potential announcement come after the first facility is online? Just trying to think about timing overall.

恭喜季度表現強勁。所以我想回到SAF。您是否看到客戶有足夠的需求來支援額外的項目？如果是這樣，在第一個設施上線後是否會發布任何潛在的公告？只是想整體考慮一下時間安排。

Yes. I think the -- what we're seeing in terms of the commercial interest exceeds our current capacity with the first project. As we've said, we're doing engineering on the second project. In terms of timing, that's always for us, that's always an issue that we're not going to talk about that until we've decided internally on committing to that.

是的。我認為，我們所看到的商業利益超出了我們第一個專案目前的能力。正如我們所說，我們正在對第二個項目進行工程設計。就時間安排而言，這始終對我們來說是一個問題，在我們內部決定做出承諾之前，我們不會談論這個問題。

But what I'd say from a macro view, you could clearly -- the units are cookie cutters of each other. The project is nearly identical, the execution time and all of that is going to be very similar. So it's not a technically challenging project or something that would be difficult to fund. It's a question of how we see this market develop and when we decide internally is when we would say something externally.

但我想說的是，從宏觀角度來看，你可以清楚看出──這些單位彼此都是千篇一律的。該專案幾乎是相同的，執行時間和所有這些都將非常相似。因此，這不是一個技術上具有挑戰性的項目，也不是難以資助的項目。問題在於我們如何看待這個市場的發展，以及我們什麼時候在內部做出決定，什麼時候我們會對外發表一些言論。

Great. Yes, that makes sense. And then I was hoping to go back and dig into your comments on Asia refining dynamics earlier, just given the decline in margins that we've seen over the past couple of months. Do you think we're close to a floor over there? And then we've also seen China exports tick up in recent months, how do you think that's been impacting U.S. margins?

偉大的。是的，這是有道理的。然後，考慮到過去幾個月我們看到的利潤率下降，我希望早點回去深入研究您對亞洲煉油動態的評論。你認為我們靠近那邊的樓層嗎？然後我們也看到近​​幾個月中國的出口增加，您認為這對美國的利潤率有何影響？

Yes. So I think my comment there, when you have cracking margins in Singapore negative and you have hydroskimming margins in Europe negative, it kind of tells you we've hit a floor, we need the capacity to run and I think you'll see margins start to tick back up.

是的。因此，我認為我的評論是，當新加坡的裂解利潤為負，歐洲的加氫撇油利潤為負時，這有點告訴你我們已經觸底，我們需要運行能力，我認為你會看到利潤開始回升。

The next question is coming from Paul Cheng of Scotia.

下一個問題來自斯科細亞省的 Paul Cheng。

The first question, I think, is either for Gary or for Lane. Peer mix start up, and so that's going to bring the WCS, which is mostly the main mix in (inaudible) heavy oil with really heavy (inaudible) barrels and (inaudible). So when that happens, will your system be able to convert all your -- if the price is right, can your system convert all your heavy intake and the medium intake into using a some form of combination of WCS plus some light barrel or that is not as simple? And also whether the industry will be able to, say, eliminate all the import from the heavy barrel from, say, (inaudible) from the Middle East, replacing with WCS? That's the first question.

我認為第一個問題要么是針對加里的，要么是針對萊恩的。同儕混合啟動，因此將帶來 WCS，它主要是（聽不清楚）重油與非常重（聽不清楚）桶和（聽不清楚）的主要混合物。因此，當這種情況發生時，您的系統是否能夠將您的所有- 如果價格合適，您的系統是否可以將您所有的重型攝入量和中型攝入量轉換為使用某種形式的WCS 加上一些輕型桶的組合，或者就是沒那麼簡單？此外，該產業是否能夠消除所有來自中東（聽不清楚）的重桶進口，並用 WCS 取代？這是第一個問題。

Yes, Paul, this is Gary. I think what we anticipate there's a lot of coking capacity on the West Coast. I'll just use our Benicia refinery as an example. Benicia was really designed to run A&S. And we think with the barrels that are coming off TMX both the heavies and the lights, you'll be able to blend those together to form something that looks a lot like A&S. And we would expect most West Coast refiners will be doing something similar to that.

是的，保羅，這是加里。我認為我們預期西海岸有大量的焦化能力。我僅以我們的貝尼西亞煉油廠為例。 Benicia 確實是為營運 A&S 而設計的。我們認為，使用來自 TMX 的重型和輕型槍管，您將能夠將它們混合在一起，形成看起來很像 A&S 的東西。我們預計大多數西海岸煉油廠都會做類似的事情。

Okay. And second question then, Gary, can you give us some maybe your [comments] that what you see in the Mexican market for both gasoline and diesel?

好的。那麼第二個問題，加里，您能否給我們一些您對墨西哥汽油和柴油市場的看法？

Yes. So our sales in Mexico have been consistent with historic levels. We're selling just over 100,000 barrels a day. We expect demand in Mexico remains very strong. We would expect to see that kind of ramp up later this year when we get our marine terminal in Altamira up and running, that will make us more competitive in the north and allow us to continue to grow volumes in Mexico.

是的。所以我們在墨西哥的銷售量一直與歷史水準一致。我們每天的銷量剛剛超過 100,000 桶。我們預計墨西哥的需求仍然非常強勁。我們預計今年晚些時候，當我們在阿爾塔米拉的海運碼頭投入運行時，我們的業務量將會增加，這將使我們在北部更具競爭力，並使我們能夠繼續增加在墨西哥的業務量。

Gary, do you have an export number you can share in the first quarter.

加里，您有第一季的出口數據可以分享嗎？

Yes. So we did 103,000 barrels a day of gasoline exports. We did 153,000 barrels of diesel exports and 25,000 barrels a day of jet exports. The diesel number in the first quarter was down year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter, and I wouldn't read that as lack of demand. That was really a result of the heavy turnaround activity and just we didn't have barrels available for export.

是的。所以我們每天出口 103,000 桶汽油。我們每天出口 153,000 桶柴油和 25,000 桶噴射機。第一季的柴油數量較去年同期下降，我不會將其解讀為需求不足。這實際上是大量週轉活動的結果，只是我們沒有可供出口的桶子。

The next question is coming from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的馬修布萊爾。

Could you talk about your M&A appetite for refining assets? I think it's been about a decade since you did a major deal. Has anything changed regarding your overall outlook on M&A?

能談談您對煉油資產的併購興趣嗎？我想自從你完成一項重大交易以來已經有大約十年了。您對併購的整體看法有什麼改變嗎？

This is Lane. Not really. I mean we always look at everything. I mean if you look at the most prompt sort of big deal that's out there (inaudible) we sorted as a corporation decided not to engage in that. For whatever reason, whoever the successful buyer they can sort everything out wants to liquidate some of the assets, we'll certainly look at them at that time.

這是萊恩。並不真地。我的意思是我們總是專注於一切。我的意思是，如果你看看那裡最迅速的大交易（聽不清楚），我們就認為一家公司決定不參與其中。不管出於什麼原因，無論誰能夠解決所有問題，成功的買家想要清算一些資產，我們到時候肯定會考慮的。

But in terms of philosophy, we look at everything, but we also, as a company, because we have done so much buying refineries and merging and acquiring, we understand the full cost to make a refinery run it and certainly at the level that we expect. And so ultimately, that goes into the to our valuation models.

但就理念而言，我們會考慮一切，但我們作為一家公司，因為我們已經購買了很多煉油廠並進行了合併和收購，所以我們了解煉油廠運營的全部成本，當然也達到了我們的水平。預計。最終，這會進入我們的估值模型。

The next question is coming from Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

I had 2 market-based questions. The first, just wanted to get a sense of what you're seeing on the West Coast as we move into the summer now that another asset will be permanently shut down there? Are you seeing ratable exports coming from overseas product-wise into that market or do you expect kind of heightened volatility and elevated prices there?

我有兩個基於市場的問題。第一，只是想了解一下當我們進入夏季時您在西海岸看到的情況，因為那裡的另一項資產將永久關閉？您是否看到海外產品出口到該市場，或者您預計那裡的波動性加劇和價格上漲？

Yes. So this is Gary. I would tell you, in the first quarter, we saw a little lower demand, at least in our system, California for gasoline, which I think was related to weather. We've seen demand kind of return to normal patterns. And it's very difficult to just speculate and put barrels on the water to import the California market.

是的。這就是加里。我想告訴你，在第一季度，我們看到需求略有下降，至少在我們的系統中，加州對汽油的需求有所下降，我認為這與天氣有關。我們已經看到需求恢復到正常模式。而且光靠投機和投水來進口加州市場是非常困難的。

So we don't think a lot of people are doing that, and you need to see the market react before you would go ahead and put barrels on the water for import into California. So we think there will be a lot of volatility and it really is all dependent on how refineries on the West Coast run throughout the driving season.

因此，我們認為沒有很多人這樣做，您需要先看看市場的反應，然後才能繼續將桶裝水進口到加州。因此，我們認為會有很大的波動，這實際上完全取決於西海岸煉油廠在整個駕駛季節的運作情況。

Got it. And then my second question, just going back to the commentary around the global lighting crude slate. And you had previously made a comment that crude gravity over the past few years has gone up 3 to 4 points and that's maybe reduced global capacity available by 3 to 4 percentage points. Can you just comment on that dynamic?

知道了。然後是我的第二個問題，回到全球照明原油的評論。您之前曾評論說，過去幾年原油重力上升了 3 到 4 個百分點，這可能導致全球可用產能減少 3 到 4 個百分點。您能評論一下這動態嗎？

I don't know that I can quantify that. Certainly, that is our view that as the crude gravity goes higher, there's a lot of refining capacity around the world that was designed for a heavier gravity crude diet. It causes some derate crude units, but quantifying it. I don't know that I can do that. I don't know, Greg, if you have?

我不知道我可以量化這一點。當然，我們認為，隨著原油比重越來越高，世界各地有許多煉油能力是為較重的原油飲食而設計的。它會導致一些原始單位的降額，但對其進行量化。我不知道我能做到這一點。我不知道，格雷格，你有嗎？

I don't have any rules of thumb either.

我也沒有任何經驗法則。

At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments.

現在，我想將發言權交還給 Bhullar 先生以供結束發言。

Thank you, Donna. Appreciate everyone joining us. Obviously, please feel free to contact the IR team if you have any follow-up questions. Thank you, everyone, and have a great day.

謝謝你，唐娜。感謝大家加入我們。當然，如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝大家，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines at this time or log off the webcast, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或退出網路廣播，然後享受剩下的一天。