瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Valero Energy Corp. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corp. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人、投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO, Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早安，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的執行長兼總裁萊恩·里格斯 (Lane Riggs)； Jason Fraser，我們的執行副總裁兼財務長；Gary Simmons，我們的執行副總裁兼營運長；以及瓦萊羅高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到收益報告並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站 Investorvalero.com 上找到一份副本。收益發布中還附有表格，提供有關我們業務部門的其他財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的調節和揭露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請隨時在電話會議後聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

現在我想請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，它表示，新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的因素。

Now I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給萊恩，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report strong financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year. With the exception of our 2022 results, we delivered the highest fourth quarter and full year adjusted earnings in company's history in 2023, demonstrating the earnings capability of our portfolio.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。我們很高興地報告第四季度和全年的強勁財務業績。除 2022 年業績外，我們在 2023 年實現了公司歷史上最高的第四季度和全年調整後收益，證明了我們投資組合的盈利能力。

Our refining system achieved 97.4% mechanical availability in 2023, which is our best ever. We also set a record for environmental performance and matched our previous record for process safety, illustrating the benefits from our long-standing commitment to safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. Now through organic growth of our wholesale system, we set an annual record for sales volume in 2023 at approximately 1 million barrels per day, demonstrating the strength of our branded and wholesale marketing network.

我們的煉油系統在 2023 年實現了 97.4% 的機械可用性，這是我們有史以來最好的。我們也創造了環境績效記錄，並與先前的製程安全記錄相匹配，這說明了我們長期致力於安全、可靠和對環境負責的營運所帶來的好處。現在，透過批發系統的自然成長，我們在 2023 年創下了約 100 萬桶/日的年度銷售記錄，展示了我們品牌和批發行銷網路的實力。

We continue to pursue strategic projects that enhance the earnings capability of our business and expand our long-term competitive advantage. The DGD, sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF project at Port Arthur remains on schedule to completion expected in the first quarter of 2025 for a total of $315 million.

我們繼續追求能夠增強我們業務盈利能力並擴大我們長期競爭優勢的策略項目。亞瑟港的 DGD（可持續航空燃料）或 SAF 項目仍按計劃完成，預計於 2025 年第一季完工，總投資 3.15 億美元。

Half of that attributable to Valero. With the completion of this project, DGD is expected to become one of the largest manufacturers of SAF in the world. In addition, we are pursuing shorter cash cycle projects that optimize and capitalize on opportunities to improve margins around our existing refining assets. On the financial side, we continue to honor our commitment to shareholders. We returned 73% of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the fourth quarter, resulting a 60% payout ratio for 2023, and last week, our Board approved a 5% increase in the quarterly cash dividend.

其中一半歸功於瓦萊羅。隨著該項目的完成，DGD有望成為全球最大的SAF製造商之一。此外，我們正在尋求更短的現金週期項目，以優化和利用機會來提高我們現有煉油資產的利潤率。在財務方面，我們持續履行對股東的承諾。我們在第四季透過股利和股票回購將經營活動提供的調整後淨現金的73% 返還給股東，使2023 年的派息率為60%，上週，我們的董事會批准將季度現金股息增加5%。

Looking ahead, we expect refining margins to remain supported by tight product supply and demand balances. In the near term, product inventories ahead of the summer driving season are expected to be constrained with heavy industry-wide turnaround activity in the first quarter, providing support to refining margins. Long term, we expect global demand growth to exceed products supplied despite new refinery startups.

展望未來，我們預期煉油利潤率將持續受到產品供需平衡緊張的支持。短期內，夏季駕駛季節之前的產品庫存預計將受到第一季全行業重整活動的限制，從而為煉油利潤提供支撐。從長遠來看，儘管有新的煉油廠啟動，但我們預計全球需求成長將超過產品供應。

In closing, our team's simple strategy of pursuing excellence in operations, return-driven discipline on growth projects and a demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns has driven our success and positions us well for the future. So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

最後，我們團隊追求卓越營運的簡單策略、以回報為導向的成長專案紀律以及對股東回報的明確承諾推動了我們的成功，並為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。那麼，荷馬，我會把電話轉給你。

Thanks, Lane. For the fourth quarter of 2023, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1.2 billion or $3.55 per share compared to $3.1 billion or $8.15 per share for the fourth quarter of 2022. Fourth quarter 2022 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $3.2 billion or $8.45 per share. For 2023, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $8.8 billion or $24.92 per share compared to $11.5 billion or $29.04 per share in 2022. 2023 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $8.8 billion or $24.90 per share compared to $11.6 billion or $29.16 per share in 2022.

謝謝，萊恩。 2023 年第四季，瓦萊羅股東應佔淨利為12 億美元，即每股3.55 美元，而2022 年第四季為31 億美元，即每股8.15 美元。2022 年第四季調整後歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨利為32 億美元，即8.45 美元每股。 2023 年，瓦萊羅股東應佔淨利為88 億美元，即每股24.92 美元，而2022 年為115 億美元，即每股29.04 美元。2023 年調整後歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨利潤為88 億美元，即每股24.90 美元，而2022 年為116 億美元，即每股29.16 美元2022年。

The Refining segment reported $1.6 billion of operating income for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $4.3 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022. Refining throughput volumes in the fourth quarter of 2023 averaged 3 million barrels per day. Throughput capacity utilization was 94% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Refining cash operating expenses were $4.99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023 higher than guidance of $4.60 primarily due to an environmental regulatory reserve adjustment in the West Coast. Renewable Diesel segment operating income was $84 million for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $261 million for the fourth quarter of 2022.

煉油部門報告稱，2023 年第四季的營業收入為 16 億美元，而 2022 年第四季為 43 億美元。2023 年第四季的煉油吞吐量平均為每天 300 萬桶。 2023 年第四季的產能利用率為 94%。2023 年第四季煉油現金營運費用為每桶 4.99 美元，高於指引值 4.60 美元，這主要是由於西海岸的環境監管儲備調整。 2023 年第四季再生柴油部門的營業收入為 8,400 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季為 2.61 億美元。

Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 3.8 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was 1.3 million gallons per day higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. The higher sales volumes in the fourth quarter of 2023 were due to the impact of additional volumes from the DGD Port Arthur plant, which started up in the fourth quarter of 2022. Operating income was lower than the fourth quarter of 2022 due to lower renewable diesel margin in the fourth quarter of 2023.

2023 年第四季再生柴油銷量平均每天 380 萬加侖，比 2022 年第四季增加 130 萬加侖每天。2023 年第四季銷量較高是由於銷量增加的影響來自DGD 亞瑟港工廠，該工廠於2022 年第四季啟動。由於2023 年第四季再生柴油利潤率較低，營業收入低於2022 年第四季。

The Ethanol segment reported $190 million of operating income for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $7 million for the fourth quarter of 2022. Adjusted operating income was $205 million for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $69 million for the fourth quarter of 2022. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.5 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was 448,000 gallons per day higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. Adjusted operating income was higher than the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily as a result of higher production volumes and lower corn prices in the fourth quarter of 2023. For the fourth quarter of 2023, G&A expenses were $295 million, and net interest expense was $149 million.

乙醇部門報告2023 年第四季營業收入為1.9 億美元，而2022 年第四季為700 萬美元。2023 年第四季調整後營業收入為2.05 億美元，而2022 年第四季為6,900 萬美元。乙醇2023 年第四季的平均產量為每天 450 萬加侖，比 2022 年第四季增加了 448,000 加侖每天。調整後的營業收入高於 2022 年第四季度，主要是由於產量增加和2023 年第第四季玉米價格較低。2023 年第四季度，一般及行政費用為2.95 億美元，淨利息費用為1.49 億美元。

G&A expenses were $998 million in 2023. Depreciation and amortization expense was $690 million and income tax expense was $331 million for the fourth quarter of 2023. The effective tax rate was 22% for 2023. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. Included in this amount was a $631 million unfavorable impact from working capital and $65 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD. Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023.

2023 年的一般管理費用為9.98 億美元。2023 年第四季的折舊和攤銷費用為6.90 億美元，所得稅費用為3.31 億美元。2023 年的有效稅率為22%。2023 年經營活動提供的淨現金為12 億美元。2023 年第四季。其中包括來自營運資本的 6.31 億美元不利影響，以及與 DGD 其他合資成員份額相關的經營活動提供的 6500 萬美元調整後淨現金。排除這些項目，2023 年第四季經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為 18 億美元。

Net cash provided by operating activities in 2023 was $9.2 billion. Included in this amount was a $2.3 billion unfavorable impact from working capital and $512 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture members share of DGD. Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities in 2023 was $11 billion. Regarding investing activities, we made $540 million of capital investments in the fourth quarter of 2023, of which $460 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business.

2023年經營活動提供的淨現金為92億美元。其中包括來自營運資本的 23 億美元不利影響，以及與 DGD 其他合資成員份額相關的經營活動提供的 5.12 億美元調整後淨現金。排除這些項目，2023 年營業活動提供的調整後淨現金為 110 億美元。在投資活動方面，我們在 2023 年第四季進行了 5.4 億美元的資本投資，其中 4.6 億美元用於維持業務，包括週轉、催化劑和監管合規成本，其餘用於發展業務。

Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD, capital investments attributable to Valero were $506 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and $1.8 billion for 2023.

不包括歸屬於 DGD 其他合資企業成員份額的資本投資，瓦萊羅歸屬於 2023 年第四季的資本投資為 5.06 億美元，2023 年為 18 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $1.3 billion to our stockholders in the fourth quarter of 2023 of which $346 million was paid as dividends and $966 million was for the purchase of approximately 7.5 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 73% for the quarter. As Lane mentioned, this results in a payout ratio of 60% for the year. Through share repurchases, we reduced our share count by approximately 11% in 2023 and by 19% since year-end 2021. With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $9.2 billion of total debt, $2.3 billion of finance lease obligations and $5.4 billion of cash and cash equivalents.

轉向融資活動。 2023 年第四季度，我們向股東返還 13 億美元，其中 3.46 億美元作為股息支付，9.66 億美元用於購買約 750 萬股普通股，該季度的派息率為 73%。正如 Lane 所提到的，這導致當年的股利率為 60%。透過股票回購，我們在2023 年將股票數量減少了約11%，自2021 年底以來減少了19%。就我們的資產負債表而言，本季末我們的總債務為92 億美元，融資租賃債務為23 億美元， 54億美元現金及現金等價物。

The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 18% as of December 31, 2023. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的負債與資本比率為 18%。本季結束時，我們資本充足，可用流動資金為 53 億美元（不含現金）。

Turning to guidance. We expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2024 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance and joint venture investments. About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth with approximately half of the growth capital towards our low carbon fuel businesses and half towards refining projects.

轉向指導。我們預計 2024 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑、監管合規和合資企業投資的支出。其中約 16 億美元分配用於維持業務和平衡成長，其中約一半的成長資本用於我們的低碳燃料業務，一半用於煉油項目。

Our low carbon fuels growth capital is primarily for the SAF project. Our refining growth projects aim to increase our crude flexibility in the Gulf Coast extract more value out of some of our conversion unit capacity, improve our access to some key product markets and improve our logistics into or out of our refineries. All of these projects meet or exceed our minimum return threshold of 25% after-tax IRR.

我們的低碳燃料成長資金主要用於 SAF 專案。我們的煉油成長專案旨在提高我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的原油靈活性，從我們的一些轉換裝置產能中提取更多價值，改善我們進入一些關鍵產品市場的機會，並改善我們進出煉油廠的物流。所有這些項目均達到或超過我們 25% 的稅後 IRR 的最低迴報門檻。

For modeling our first quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.52 million to 1.57 million barrels per day which includes turnaround work on the legacy coker at our Port Arthur refinery, Mid-Continent at 415,000 to 435,000 barrels per day, west Coast at 235,000 to 255,000 barrels per day, and North Atlantic at 435,000 to 455,000 barrels per day.

為了對我們第一季的營運情況進行建模，我們預計煉油廠吞吐量將落在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸地區為每天152 萬桶至157 萬桶，其中包括我們亞瑟港煉油廠傳統焦化廠的周轉工作，中大陸地區為415,000 桶至157,000 桶/日。每天435,000桶，西海岸每天235,000至255,000桶，北大西洋每天435,000至455,000桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the first quarter to be approximately $5.10 per barrel, reflecting lower throughput due to turnaround activity across our system. With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2024. Operating expenses in 2024 should be $0.45 per gallon, which includes $0.18 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們預計第一季煉油現金營運費用約為每桶 5.10 美元，反映出由於我們系統的周轉活動導致吞吐量下降。對於再生柴油領域，我們預計 2024 年銷量約為 12 億加侖。2024 年的營運費用應為每加侖 0.45 美元，其中包括折舊和攤銷等非現金成本每加侖 0.18 美元。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.5 million gallons per day in the first quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.37 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization. For the first quarter, net interest expense should be about $150 million, and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $700 million. For 2024, we expect G&A expenses to be approximately $975 million.

我們的乙醇部門預計第一季每天生產 450 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.37 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。第一季淨利息支出應約為 1.5 億美元，總折舊和攤提費用應約為 7 億美元。 2024 年，我們預計一般管理費用約為 9.75 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. Before we open the call to questions, please adhere to our protocol of limiting each turn in the Q&A to two questions. If you have more than two questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

我們的開場白就到此結束。在我們開始提問之前，請遵守我們的協議，將問答中的每一輪限制為兩個問題。如果您有兩個以上的問題，請在時間允許的情況下重新加入佇列，以確保其他來電者有時間提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from John Royall of JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾（John Royall）。

So my first question is on the macro side, just on light heavies. LLS Maya has risen all the way to around $10 from about $6 beginning in the quarter, yet we still have OPEC being restrictive in terms of production. Can you talk about the drivers of the widening of coastal heavy diffs and how you see them progressing from here?

所以我的第一個問題是宏觀方面的，只是輕重量級的。 LLS Maya 已從本季開始的約 6 美元一路上漲至 10 美元左右，但 OPEC 仍對產量進行限制。您能談談沿海地區差異擴大的驅動因素以及您如何看待它們的進展嗎？

Sure. This is Gary. I think a number of factors contributed to that. You did see production in Western Canada tick up a little bit in the fourth quarter. We're seeing a few more Venezuelan barrels make their way into the U.S. Gulf Coast. So a little more supply on the market. But probably the biggest factor is as you got late in the fourth quarter and early this quarter, you're starting to see the impact of turnarounds decreasing demand for some of those, especially the heavy sour barrels. In addition to those factors, you had the typical seasonality in high sulfur fuel oil, but lower high sulfur fuel oil demand for power generation kind of weighing on the heavy sour discounts as well.

當然。這是加里。我認為造成這種情況的因素很多。您確實看到加拿大西部的產量在第四季度略有上升。我們看到更多委內瑞拉石油桶進入美國墨西哥灣沿岸。所以市場上的供應量會多一些。但最大的因素可能是，隨著第四季末和本季初的到來，您開始看到扭虧為盈的影響，減少了對其中一些產品的需求，尤其是重酸桶的需求。除了這些因素之外，高硫燃料油具有典型的季節性，但發電對高硫燃料油的需求較低，也對含硫燃料油的大幅折扣造成壓力。

So our view is that through the first quarter, through refinery maintenance season, you'll continue to see a little bit wider heavy sour discounts, but then you'll start to see those come in and really for any meaningful impact to sustainable impact for the quality diffs, we need more OPEC production on the market. If you look at the consultant forecast, it looks like that could happen probably third quarter this year.

因此，我們的觀點是，在第一季度，透過煉油廠維護季節，您將繼續看到更廣泛的大幅酸折扣，但隨後您將開始看到這些折扣的出現，並且真正對永續影響產生任何有意義的影響由於品質差異，我們需要更多的歐佩克產量推出市場。如果你看一下顧問的預測，看起來這可能會發生在今年第三季。

And then my second question is on return of capital. So your number for the quarter was very strong, and you finished the year at 60% of CFO. I know you've talked about how you tend to come in above the range when cracks are strong. If '24 ends up being kind of more of a mid-cycle type year or even below, how should we think about where you might fall in that 40% to 50% range this year?

我的第二個問題是關於資本回報。因此，您本季的數字非常強勁，全年結束時您的 CFO 達到了 60%。我知道您已經談論過當裂縫很強烈時您往往會超出該範圍。如果 24 年最終更像是中期週期類型的年份，甚至更低，我們應該如何考慮今年您可能會落在 40% 到 50% 的範圍內？

This is Jason. And I've got a bit of a cold. And if I talk too much, I'll go into a coughing fit, so I'm going to ask Homer to respond.

這是傑森。我有點感冒了。如果我說太多，我就會咳嗽，所以我要請荷馬回應。

Yes, John, I mean our approach to shareholder returns is driven by our annual target of 40% to 50% of adjusted net cash from operations. And obviously, that includes the dividend, which we consider nondiscretionary and buybacks, which are considered the flywheel supplementing our dividend to hit our target. And given the strength in our balance sheet in the fourth quarter, as we highlighted, we had a 73% payout which resulted in a 60% payout for the year. And as you touched on, since 2014, we've regularly paid above our target. And in fact, the average payout for the 5 years leading into COVID was around 57%.

是的，約翰，我的意思是，我們實現股東回報的方法是由我們調整後的營運淨現金的 40% 至 50% 的年度目標驅動的。顯然，這包括我們認為不可自由裁量的股息和回購，這被認為是補充我們股息以實現我們目標的飛輪。正如我們所強調的，考慮到我們第四季資產負債表的實力，我們的派息比率為 73%，全年股息率為 60%。正如您所提到的，自 2014 年以來，我們支付的費用經常高於我們的目標。事實上，新冠疫情爆發前 5 年的平均賠付率約為 57%。

So I think in short and periods when the balance sheet is strong as it is now and sustaining CapEx, the dividend and strategic CapEx is covered. You can reasonably think of our 40% to 50% target as a floor and expect any excess cash to go towards buybacks.

因此，我認為在短期內，當資產負債表像現在一樣強勁並維持資本支出時，股息和策略資本支出就得到了保障。您可以合理地將我們 40% 至 50% 的目標視為底線，並預期任何多餘現金都將用於回購。

The next question is coming from Theresa Chen of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

Would you mind giving us an update on your clean products supply and demand outlook from here? Taking into account the recent inventory moves as well as the additional refining capacity ramping up internationally, some utilization even if not fully running and what you're also seeing in terms of demand across your footprint, please?

您介意在這裡向我們介紹一下您的清潔產品供需前景的最新情況嗎？考慮到最近的庫存變動以及國際上額外的煉油產能的增加，即使沒有完全運行，也有一些利用率，以及您在整個足跡中的需求方面也看到了什麼？

Sure, Theresa. This is Gary. It's always difficult to assess the markets this early, kind of the holidays and weather tend to have a big impact on on-road transportation fuel demand and then fog in the Gulf kind of tends to limit exports. But domestically, I can tell you, demand for gasoline appears to be following typical seasonal patterns. It looks normal for this time of year and in line with where we were last year, I will tell you, gasoline volumes through our wholesale channel of trade are down, a few percent year-over-year. We're not really concerned about that because you can see it's in regions that were really impacted by weather. And as the weather we're starting to see the volumes recover nicely.

當然，特蕾莎。這是加里。這麼早就評估市場總是很困難，假期和天氣往往會對公路運輸燃料需求產生很大影響，然後海灣的大霧往往會限制出口。但我可以告訴你，在國內，汽油需求似乎遵循典型的季節性模式。我會告訴你，每年這個時候的情況看起來很正常，與去年的情況一致，透過我們批發貿易管道的汽油量下降了，比去年同期下降了幾個百分點。我們並不真正擔心這一點，因為你可以看到它是在真正受到天氣影響的地區。隨著天氣的好轉，我們開始看到銷售恢復良好。

European gasoline markets are relatively strong. That's kept the transatlantic arb closed, and then market structure doesn't really incentivize making some of the great gasoline and putting it into storage. Gasoline exports into Mexico and Latin America have remained steady. So all of this really has us pretty optimistic on gasoline cracks once we move into spring and gasoline demand improves with driving season. On the diesel side, demand in our system is up about 7% compared to last year. Probably seeing more heating oil demand with a little bit colder weather.

歐洲汽油市場相對強勁。這使得跨大西洋套利交易保持關閉，而市場結構並沒有真正激勵生產一些優質汽油並將其儲存起來。墨西哥和拉丁美洲的汽油出口保持穩定。因此，一旦進入春季，並且汽油需求隨著駕駛季節的增加而改善，所有這些確實讓我們對汽油裂縫非常樂觀。在柴油方面，我們系統的需求比去年增加了約 7%。隨著天氣稍冷，取暖油需求可能會增加。

Diesel inventory remains at the bottom of the 5-year average range. So good demand combined with low inventory continues to support the diesel cracks. Diesel exports in our system were down a little in the fourth quarter. The Russian barrels making their way into South America have caused some changes in trade flow with more of our barrels going to Europe. In Europe, warm weather tended to keep their demand down a little bit. But I can tell you thus far in the first quarter, we're seeing much stronger European demand with the colder weather hitting there.

柴油庫存仍處於 5 年平均範圍的底部。良好的需求加上低庫存繼續支撐柴油價格的上漲。第四季我們系統的柴油出口略有下降。俄羅斯的石油桶進入南美，導致貿易流發生一些變化，我們有更多的石油桶流向歐洲。在歐洲，溫暖的天氣往往會使他們的需求略有下降。但我可以告訴你，到目前為止，第一季度，隨著天氣變冷，我們看到歐洲的需求更加強勁。

We believe the diesel cracks continue to get support from increased jet demand. As kerosene gets pulled out of the diesel pool as we continue to recover from COVID. Jet demand last year was still down about 10.5% from pre-COVID levels. Most forecasts show us closing about half that gap this year. And then expectations for a little better for diesel demand with slightly colder weather and freight picking back up as well.

我們相信，柴油機裂縫將繼續得到噴射機需求增加的支持。隨著我們繼續從新冠病毒中恢復過來，煤油被從柴油池中取出。去年的噴射機需求仍比新冠肺炎疫情前的水準下降了約 10.5%。大多數預測顯示，我們今年將縮小這一差距的一半左右。隨著天氣稍冷，貨運量也會回升，預計柴油需求會有所改善。

So overall, back to your question on new capacity, it looks like to us somewhere about 1.5 million barrels a day of new capacity coming online, year-over-year growth in demand looks to be slightly over 1 million barrels a day. So supply/demand balances are really fairly close to what we saw last year. The question really becomes timing of when that new capacity comes on. Our view is that it will take longer for those new refineries to start up and you don't really see an impact on supply until later in the year. And if that holds, then you have relatively tight supply-demand balances was really the only difference being we're starting from a different inventory position, as you've already mentioned.

總的來說，回到你關於新產能的問題，在我們看來，每天大約有 150 萬桶新產能投入使用，需求的同比增長似乎略高於每天 100 萬桶。因此，供需平衡確實與我們去年看到的情況相當接近。問題實際上變成了新容量何時出現的時間。我們的觀點是，這些新煉油廠的啟動需要更長的時間，而且要到今年稍後才能真正看到對供應的影響。如果這種情況成立，那麼供需平衡相對緊張，這實際上是唯一的區別，正如您已經提到的，我們從不同的庫存狀況開始。

In our mind on that, we do expect to see inventory draws over the next several weeks. The cold weather had some impact on refinery operations, and then you'll start to get into turnaround season, which we would expect total light product inventory to begin to draw.

我們認為，我們確實預計未來幾週庫存將會減少。寒冷的天氣對煉油廠的運作產生了一些影響，然後您將開始進入周轉季節，我們預計輕質產品總庫存將開始減少。

Thank you for that detailed answer. And then maybe just looking within the U.S., what are your views on the divergence in product margins across regions? What do you think is causing the weakness in benchmark cracks in the Mid-Con in particular just suppose with the strength in the Gulf Coast?

謝謝你的詳細回答。然後或許只看美國國內，您對不同地區產品利潤率的差異有何看法？您認為是什麼導致了中部地區基準裂縫的疲軟，特別是假設墨西哥灣沿岸的強勢？

Yes. So historically, we've seen that the Mid-Con is short product in the summer and long product in the winter. And I think we're seeing that this year, the market is just long and especially the weathers tended to hit that region more and so we see demand off in that region. But I think once you start to see the weather clear and you get back into driving season, the Mid-Continent will recover. Seeing the same thing kind of on the West Coast, weathers tended to impact demand on the West Coast. And so we've seen that market a little bit softer than maybe you would typically see for this time of year.

是的。從歷史上看，我們看到 Mid-Con 在夏季是短期產品，在冬季是長期產品。我認為我們看到今年市場很長，特別是天氣對該地區的影響更大，因此我們看到該地區的需求下降。但我認為，一旦天氣開始晴朗並回到駕駛季節，中大陸就會恢復。在西海岸看到同樣的情況，天氣往往會影響西海岸的需求。因此，我們看到市場比一年中這個時候通常會看到的市場稍微疲軟一些。

The next question is coming from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Yes. Congrats on great results. And one of the things that stood out to us was the capture rates continue to be very good. And I recognize some of that is operational performance, but some of that's commercial and Lane -- I know there's some sensitivities around that, but a lot of your competitors spend a lot of time talking about what they're doing on the commercial side. So just be curious, if anything you can share about how you're optimizing what continues to be a very dynamic environment.

是的。祝賀取得了很好的成績。對我們來說最突出的事情之一是捕獲率仍然非常高。我認識到其中一些是營運績效，但其中一些是商業和萊恩——我知道這方面存在一些敏感性，但許多競爭對手花了很多時間談論他們在商業方面所做的事情。因此，請保持好奇心，如果您可以分享有關如何優化仍然非常動態的環境的任何內容。

Neil, it's Lane. So I'm not going to -- I'll start by saying thank you. And I will say that I wouldn't trade our commercial team for any other team in the industry. I sort of spoke about this in the past. Everyone in our company understands the position they play. I think sometimes some -- I've been an organization where that's not really clear, and you can get a lot of interference, probably between the supply chain. That's not true of Valero. Everybody has a position they play and they understand how to do it well.

尼爾，我是萊恩。所以我不會——我會先說謝謝。我想說的是，我不會用我們的商業團隊來交換業內任何其他團隊。我過去曾談到這一點。我們公司的每個人都了解他們所扮演的角色。我認為有時——我所在的組織對此並不太清楚，你可能會受到很多幹擾，可能是在供應鏈之間。瓦萊羅的情況並非如此。每個人都有自己的位置，並且知道如何做好它。

Refining, focused on reliability and operating envelopes and expenses, our P&E coordinate between the groups that make the signals and our refining commercial groups execute the signals, and it's pretty clear on how all that's supposed to work.

煉油，專注於可靠性、營運範圍和費用，我們的 P&E 在發出信號的團隊和執行信號的煉油商業團隊之間進行協調，並且非常清楚所有這些應該如何運作。

And so I would tell you that, that's really the key to our execution. And of course, finally, everybody in the corporation is incentivized with the same goals. We don't have different groups having their own sort of incentives. So that's how we get alignment all the way through. So glad to have them.

所以我想告訴你，這確實是我們執行的關鍵。當然，最後，公司中的每個人都受到相同目標的激勵。我們沒有不同的群體有自己的激勵措施。這就是我們自始至終保持一致的方式。很高興擁有他們。

Yes. No, it shows up. Then the follow-up just on North Atlantic. It was particularly strong this quarter relative to the benchmark. The benchmark, I think, was $16, and the realized gross margin was well above that. So just curious if there's anything you'd call out in Montreal or U.K. that drove the strength there?

是的。不，它出現了。然後是北大西洋的後續行動。相對於基準而言，本季尤其強勁。我認為基準是 16 美元，而實現的毛利率遠高於此。所以我想知道蒙特利爾或英國是否有什麼事情可以推動那裡的發展？

Neil, this is Greg. So we saw crude costs improve in that region primarily in Canada is where you saw that more than you did in the -- in Pembroke. And then you brought up commercial margins. They were very strong for the quarter as well for that region. And then some of the compliance costs for the programs over there, costs were lower than we've seen in prior periods. And all those things combined to drive up that capture rate in the North Atlantic.

尼爾，這是格雷格。因此，我們看到該地區的原油成本有所改善，主要是在加拿大，比在彭布羅克看到的情況更多。然後你提到了商業利潤。他們在本季以及該地區的表現都非常強勁。然後那裡的計劃的一些合規成本比我們之前看到的要低。所有這些因素結合起來提高了北大西洋的捕獲率。

Yes. And I'll just add, Syncrude is trading at $7 below Brent. And a discount to that to Brent with a high distillate yield crude is a real benefit to our systems.

是的。我想補充一點，Syncrude 的交易價格比布蘭特原油低 7 美元。與布蘭特原油相比，具有高餾分油產量的折扣對我們的系統來說是一個真正的優勢。

The next question is coming from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

I'm not sure who wants to take this one, Lane, but I want to ask perhaps an obvious question about shipping disruptions and what it means for perhaps not Valero specifically, but just on a more macro sense, how do the situation with the Red Sea bidding up clean tanker rates and so on. What does that do to the movement of product and the implications for a system which is perhaps more dependent on imports than it has been at any time, at least since I've covered this sector?

我不確定誰想接受這個，萊恩，但我想問一個關於運輸中斷的明顯問題，以及這對瓦萊羅來說意味著什麼，但只是從更宏觀的意義上來說，情況如何紅海提高清潔油輪價格等等。這對產品的流動以及對一個可能比以往任何時候都更依賴進口的系統產生什麼影響，至少自從我介紹這個行業以來？

Yes. So we're not really running crude from that region. So it hasn't really had an impact to us in terms of supply of crude. But the big impact, especially on the crude side of the business has just been freight rates. We had a period of time where you could export from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Northwest Europe crude in the low $2 a barrel range that spiked to $6 a barrel. And you could see that in Brent-WTI. So I would tell you, probably for our system, that is an advantage because it gives us a crude cost advantage versus our global competitors.

是的。所以我們並沒有真正從該地區開採原油。因此，就原油供應而言，它並沒有真正對我們產生影響。但最大的影響，尤其是對原油業務的影響，只是運費。有一段時間，你可以從美國墨西哥灣沿岸向西北歐出口原油，價格從每桶 2 美元的低點飆升至每桶 6 美元。你可以在布倫特-WTI 中看到這一點。所以我想告訴你，可能對我們的系統來說，這是一個優勢，因為它為我們提供了相對於全球競爭對手的原始成本優勢。

Okay. I realize it's kind of hard to quantify, so we'll continue to watch, but thanks for that answer. Lane, my follow-up is for you or maybe for Jason, given it's cold, but 40% to 50% payout, it seems that, at least on our numbers, you are easily able to sustain the payout at a higher level, especially now that you've restated your $2 billion CapEx plan. So I'm just curious, what's the resistance to kind of reset that range that your system clearly is capable of supporting in terms of the payout?

好的。我意識到這有點難以量化，所以我們將繼續觀察，但感謝您的回答。 Lane，我的後續行動是針對你的，或者可能是針對Jason 的，考慮到天氣很冷，但40% 到50% 的支付，看來，至少從我們的數據來看，你很容易能夠將支付維持在較高的水平，尤其是現在您已經重申了 20 億美元的資本支出計劃。所以我很好奇，您的系統在支付方面顯然能夠支持的重置範圍的阻力是什麼？

I'm going to let Homer answer that.

我會讓荷馬來回答這個問題。

Doug, I mean, I think our -- obviously, our target is set on a long-term range, right? And so the 40% to 50% think of it as like a long-term target. But to your point, and as I mentioned earlier, we've consistently come in above that. And again, I think when you have a strong balance sheet as it is right now, we're not going to build cash. So I think you should reasonably expect shareholder returns to come in above that target.

道格，我的意思是，我認為我們的——顯然，我們的目標是設定在長期範圍內的，對吧？因此，40% 到 50% 的人認為這是一個長期目標。但就你的觀點而言，正如我之前提到的，我們一直在上面。再說一遍，我認為當你擁有像現在這樣強大的資產負債表時，我們不會累積現金。因此，我認為您應該合理地預期股東回報會高於該目標。

The next question is coming from Manav Gupta of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

So I wanted to ask about the renewable diesel side of the business. The capture on the DGD dropped to about 49%. And now Homer has done a very good job of explaining to the market how the lag works. So if we add back that lag effect and that $0.64, the actual capture would have hit something like 93%, so when we look past 4Q, the margin is up materially. And if we assume an 80%, 90% capture ignoring the lag, would that imply that first quarter in terms of renewable diesel margin would be much stronger than the earnings that came in for the fourth quarter?

所以我想詢問一下再生柴油方面的業務。 DGD 的捕獲率下降至 49% 左右。現在，霍默已經很好地向市場解釋了滯後現像是如何產生的。因此，如果我們加回滯後效應和 0.64 美元，實際捕獲率將達到 93% 左右，因此當我們回顧第四季度之後，利潤率大幅上升。如果我們假設 80%、90% 的捕獲率忽略了滯後性，這是否意味著第一季再生柴油利潤率將比第四季度的收益強得多？

This is Eric, and I would just say yes. Yes, it's a very good -- yes, we see a lot of the same curve that you described. And really, the change for renewable diesel for Valero is -- with the first full year of DGD3 in operation, we run a lot higher percentage of foreign feedstocks and that supply chain is just naturally longer. So the most attractive, lowest CI feedstocks are coming from foreign imports. And I think that's creating this longer lag than we've seen in DGD historically. So your analysis, I think, is correct.

這是艾瑞克，我只想說是的。是的，這是一條非常好的——是的，我們看到了很多與你描述的相同的曲線。事實上，瓦萊羅再生柴油的變化是——隨著 DGD3 運作的第一個全年，我們使用的外國原料比例更高，供應鏈自然也更長。因此，最具吸引力、CI 最低的原料來自國外進口。我認為這造成了比我們在 DGD 歷史上看到的更長的滯後。所以我認為你的分析是正確的。

Perfect. Just a quick follow-up here is, last year, we had an abnormally warm winter. Now when we look at this first quarter, as you guys have mentioned, industry is taking a heavier turnaround versus last year, and then you could have a much colder weather out as we are all seeing there. So year-on-year comp for the first quarter, again, could be better than even last year. I'm just trying to understand the dynamics versus last year versus this as it relates to the heating oil demand.

完美的。快速跟進一下，去年，我們經歷了一個異常溫暖的冬天。現在，當我們回顧第一季時，正如你們所提到的，與去年相比，行業正在經歷更嚴重的轉變，然後，正如我們都看到的那樣，天氣可能會更加寒冷。因此，第一季的年比業績可能再次好於去年。我只是想了解去年與今年的動態，因為它與取暖油需求有關。

Yes. That's kind of the way we see it. The big difference between last year and this year is we had the winter storm early in the quarter last year, which took refining capacity off-line kind of created the big inventory reset. You didn't have that this year, but then in our mind, you'll see more of a draw as we get into February and March with the turnaround activity and a little colder weather.

是的。我們就是這麼看的。去年和今年最大的差異是，去年季度初我們遭遇了冬季風暴，導致煉油產能下線，導致庫存大幅重置。今年沒有這樣的情況，但在我們看來，隨著進入二月和三月，隨著活動的周轉和天氣的寒冷，你會看到更多的吸引力。

It's January. Still have the cold weather. Still the possibility of cold weather hitting the Gulf Coast, so.

現在是一月。天氣依然寒冷。墨西哥灣沿岸仍有可能遭遇寒冷天氣，因此。

The next question is coming from Sam Margolin of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的薩姆·馬戈林。

I had a question on the gasoline market. I think capture rate in 4Q may have benefited from butane economics. And so correspondingly, if there was a high incentive to blend as much winter grade as possible. There may have been a low incentive to make and store summer grade. And there's just a lot of NGL supply that is kind of making its way into stockpiles across a different -- across a number of categories.

我有一個關於汽油市場的問題。我認為第四季的捕集率可能受益於丁烷經濟。因此，相應地，如果有很高的動機來混合盡可能多的冬季等級。生產和儲存夏季等級的動力可能較低。而且大量液化天然氣供應正在進入不同類別的庫存。

And so I want to know if it makes sense to think about as we enter into driving season, if total gasoline inventories are maybe overstated just given the quantity of maybe butane in that number.

因此，我想知道，當我們進入駕駛季節時，考慮一下是否有意義，考慮到丁烷的數量，汽油庫存總量是否可能被誇大了。

Yes. Certainly, in our system, when you look at the cost to produce of a summer graded gasoline, there's no economics at all to be making summer grade gasoline and putting it into storage. I think the only people that could be storing barrels at all, it would be high octane components and they're really just speculating that octane is going to get stronger. But we certainly see it that way that the barrels that are in storage today are largely winter grade.

是的。當然，在我們的系統中，當您考慮生產夏季級汽油的成本時，您會發現生產夏季級汽油並將其儲存起來根本不經濟。我認為唯一可以儲存桶的人是高辛烷值成分，他們實際上只是猜測辛烷值會變得更強。但我們確實認為，今天儲存的桶子大部分是冬季級的。

My non follow-up second question is about SAF. And I'm just wondering how that market is developing for you commercially as we get closer to the SAF unit coming on. I think there's a view that the SAF market could take on some contracted longer-term kind of cost-plus characteristics because airlines have levers to pass it through that are sort of outside of the policy regime, but I would love your thoughts on how commercially SAF is developing as you get closer to production.

我的非後續第二個問題是關於 SAF 的。我只是想知道，隨著我們越來越接近 SAF 單位的推出，這個市場在商業上會如何發展。我認為有一種觀點認為，SAF 市場可能會呈現出某種合約規定的長期成本加成特徵，因為航空公司擁有一些槓桿來傳遞這一特徵，而這些槓桿在政策制度之外，但我很想聽聽聽聽您對如何在商業上實現這一點的想法。隨著距離生產越來越近，SAF 也在不斷發展。

Yes, Sam, I think you've said it well. We are -- we continue to talk to all the airlines and cargo carriers. A lot of their models are going to be based on more of a voluntary approach in sort of a jet plus basis that goes into a pass-through to customers that want to offset their carbon footprint through their travel budgets.

是的，薩姆，我認為你說得很好。我們將繼續與所有航空公司和貨運公司進行對話。他們的許多車型將更多地基於一種自願的方法，類似於噴射機加基礎，這種方法會轉嫁給那些希望透過旅行預算抵消碳足跡的客戶。

And so we continue to have a lot of those conversations. I think we're very close on having several contracts done with airlines going into our early production from our project. So that continues to be progressing very, very well. So we don't see that we're going to have a problem moving all of the volume out of this project.

所以我們繼續進行很多這樣的對話。我認為我們非常接近與航空公司簽訂幾份合同，進入我們項目的早期生產。因此，這一切繼續進展得非常非常好。因此，我們認為將所有體積移出該項目不會有問題。

The next question is coming from Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.

下一個問題來自桑基研究中心的保羅桑基。

I was going to ask about international shipping, but you've dealt with the Red Sea. So could you just talk a bit about Russia that was big headlines about a port explosion there. I was wondering how much distillate and other product you're seeing coming out of Russia as we start the year.

我本來想問有關國際航運的問題，但你已經處理過紅海了。那麼，您能簡單談談俄羅斯嗎？俄羅斯港口爆炸事件曾成為頭條新聞。我想知道在新年伊始，您會看到有多少餾分油和其他產品從俄羅斯流出。

Secondly, I think you benefited a lot from Venezuelan, incremental Venezuelan crude? What's your outlook there? And then finally, what are you seeing from Mexico with the new big refinery starting and Nigeria maybe with the refinery starting?

其次，我覺得你們從委內瑞拉、增量委內瑞拉原油中受益匪淺？你在那裡的前景如何？最後，您對墨西哥新大型煉油廠的啟動以及尼日利亞煉油廠的啟動有何看法？

Okay. Yes, I'll start with Russia. I think the drone attack that occurred last night, probably the biggest market impact we're seeing so far is you've seen a reaction in the naphtha market that refinery supplied a lot of naphtha to the Far East. And so there's a concern that, that flow may be gone. And so the naphtha market has tightened up. I think you do see distillates starting to fall. And some of what we're seeing is that as the refineries experienced some issues, they're having trouble getting support from the West that they typically would even for things like spare parts and those types of things. So we do see that maybe distillate starts to trend off a little bit due to those issues. The middle part of the question was?

好的。是的，我將從俄羅斯開始。我認為昨晚發生的無人機襲擊，可能是我們迄今為止看到的最大的市場影響，就是石腦油市場的反應，即煉油廠向東供應了大量石腦油。因此有人擔心這種流動可能會消失。因此石腦油市場已經趨緊。我認為您確實看到餾分油開始下降。我們看到的一些情況是，隨著煉油廠遇到一些問題，他們很難獲得西方的支持，而他們通常會提供諸如備件之類的東西。因此，我們確實看到，由於這些問題，餾分油可能開始略有下降。問題的中間部分是？

Venezuela benefit.

委內瑞拉受益。

Venezuela, okay. Yes, so we continue to ramp up our volume of Venezuelan crude. I think the lifting of sanctions more than additional volume into our system probably had more of a price impact, so we did see a little bit more value in the fourth quarter on the Venezuelan barrels that we're running as a result of further reducing some of the sanctions that they have on Venezuela.

委內瑞拉，好吧。是的，所以我們繼續增加委內瑞拉原油的產量。我認為解除制裁比增加我們系統的產量可能對價格產生更大的影響，所以我們確實看到第四季度我們正在運行的委內瑞拉石油的價值增加了一些，因為進一步減少了一些他們對委內瑞拉實施的製裁。

Mexico refinery starting?

墨西哥煉油廠開工？

Yes. So we're not seeing any impact as of yet from the Mexico refineries. When we talk about crude supply, there's always the discussion that we may see some falloff in our supply of Maya, but that really hasn't impacted us yet. And we don't see any delta on the product side of the business yet either.

是的。因此，我們尚未看到墨西哥煉油廠的任何影響。當我們談論原油供應時，總是有人討論我們的瑪雅供應可能會有所下降，但這實際上還沒有對我們產生影響。我們還沒有看到業務產品方面有任何增量。

And I guess that would then apply to Nigeria as well, right?

我想這也適用於尼日利亞，對嗎？

Yes, same thing. We think in our mind, it's going to take a while for that refinery to ramp up. It's just a big refinery that's not going to be easy to bring online.

是的，同樣的事情。我們認為，該煉油廠需要一段時間才能恢復正常運作。這只是一家大型煉油廠，上線並不容易。

Great. And then just a follow-up second question here, Homer. Lane, you said that you don't anticipate the asset base changing greatly with the change that we saw last year in CEO with you taking the leadership. Can you just update us given the number of assets that are on the market? And perhaps if you want to add anything on California where results look weak for the quarter, and you've expressed dismayed policies there, I'll leave it there.

偉大的。接下來是第二個問題，荷馬。萊恩，你說你預計資產基礎不會隨著去年你領導的執行長的變化而發生巨大變化。能否介紹一下市場上資產數量的最新情況？也許，如果您想在加州添加任何內容，因為該季度的業績看起來很疲軟，並且您對該州的政策表示了失望，那麼我會將其留在那裡。

Yes. I mean Joe has been pretty consistent as a leadership team, we've been pretty consistent. We look at everything that comes on to the market. I think structurally, our view really is whether it's policies in Europe and Canada and the United States in terms of the desire to try to move away from fossil fuels, the difficulty of it and the difficulty is to make investments, we sort of see transportation fuels being structurally short.

是的。我的意思是，喬作為一個領導團隊一直非常穩定，我們也非常穩定。我們關注市場上出現的所有產品。我認為從結構上來說，我們的觀點實際上是歐洲、加拿大和美國的政策是否希望擺脫化石燃料，其困難在於投資，我們看到了交通運輸燃料結構短缺。

So we do look through that lens when we look at assets that come on. We also started during the 2000s, we were the biggest consolidator in the industry. So we know what it takes to do this, and we're very good at it. And so we -- our eyes are wide open when we look at all these assets and they come on and we understand the full cost and we compare that with organic growth and we compare that to buying back shares.

因此，當我們審視即將出現的資產時，我們確實會透過這個鏡頭來審視。我們也是在 2000 年代開始的，我們是業界最大的整合商。所以我們知道要做到這一點需要什麼，而且我們非常擅長。因此，當我們審視所有這些資產時，我們會睜大眼睛，它們出現了，我們了解全部成本，我們將其與有機成長進行比較，並將其與回購股票進行比較。

And so it's all in that same framework. We do like our asset base. Clearly, California is a tough place to operate and probably getting tougher. So that's really all I want to say about that part. But what I also want to say is we're not -- again, we look at everything and we look at -- we continue to look at refineries as well.

所以這一切都在同一個框架內。我們確實喜歡我們的資產基礎。顯然，加州是一個經營困難的地方，而且可能會變得更加困難。這就是我想說的關於這部分的全部內容。但我還想說的是，我們不會——再次強調，我們會審視一切——我們也會繼續關注煉油廠。

The next question is coming from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Yes. I'd like to follow up, Gary, with you on the summer grade gasoline? Like I know you said what's in the inventories isn't that much. But what are the incentives look like at this point? Or are we so close to the conversion in March that the seasonality of gasoline is already set up that way, I'm just trying to understand what -- how the market is going to thread the needle between heavy maintenance and the current conditions in the market?

是的。加里，我想跟您談談夏季汽油的情況？我知道你說過庫存裡的東西不多。但目前的激勵措施是什麼樣的呢？或者我們已經如此接近三月的轉換，以至於汽油的季節性已經這樣設定了，我只是想了解市場將如何在繁重的維護和當前的狀況之間穿針引線市場？

Yes. So our view, Roger, you look and there's about $0.10 a carry to the March-April screen. We would tell you the cost to produce with butane being cheap is closer to $0.20. So certainly, no economic incentive at all the store gasoline. A lot of what we think happened in terms of the inventory build is that you had a lot of things happened in December, especially in the Gulf Coast. Colonial was allocated the economics to ship on Explorer into the Mid-Continent, that arb was closed due to the Mid-Continent being weak. You had some Jones Act freight off the market in dry dock that limited some movements there.

是的。所以我們的觀點是，羅傑，你看一下，3 月至 4 月的螢幕上每次攜帶的費用約為 0.10 美元。我們會告訴您，丁烷便宜的生產成本接近 0.20 美元。所以當然，儲存汽油根本沒有經濟誘因。我們認為在庫存建設方面發生的很多事情是 12 月發生了很多事情，尤其是在墨西哥灣沿岸。殖民地被分配經濟以將探索者號運送到中洲，由於中洲疲軟，該套利被關閉。幹船塢市場上有一些《瓊斯法案》貨物，限制了那裡的一些運輸。

And then a lot of volatility in the freight markets really impacted experts. And so what you saw is Gulf Coast inventories draw. And in our mind, the Gulf Coast basis got weak enough that although there wasn't carry on the screen to keep gasoline inventory, I think we saw a lot of refiners choosing to hold inventory just because the U.S. Gulf Coast basis was so weak and they choose to store barrels that they would go ahead and then consume during their own maintenance periods rather than going out and covering and saw better value to do that. So if that's the case, then you should see this inventory work off over the next couple of months.

貨運市場的大幅波動確實對專家產生了影響。所以你看到的是墨西哥灣沿岸的庫存減少。在我們看來，墨西哥灣沿岸的基差已經足夠疲軟，儘管屏幕上沒有保留汽油庫存，但我認為我們看到很多煉油廠選擇持有庫存只是因為美國墨西哥灣沿岸的基差如此疲軟，他們選擇儲存他們將繼續使用的桶，然後在自己的維護期間消耗，而不是出去覆蓋並認為這樣做更有價值。因此，如果是這種情況，那麼您應該會看到該庫存在接下來的幾個月內得到解決。

Great. That's helpful. And then the other thing, obviously, in renewable diesel, dealing with some feedstock issues this quarter, but also there's a lot of new capacity coming in. Just curious how you look at or how you would ask us to think about margin potential in this business, sort of assuming either forward curve at this point or just where we are today in terms of market structure, if it holds, how we should think about the moving pieces here because it's a little more opaque to us, the feedstocks coming in and the timing of that relative to just matching in the market on a daily basis.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，顯然，在可再生柴油方面，本季度處理了一些原料問題，但也有大量新產能進入。只是好奇您如何看待或您會如何要求我們考慮這一領域的利潤潛力業務，有點假設在這一點上的遠期曲線，或者就我們今天的市場結構而言，如果它成立，我們應該如何考慮這裡的移動部分，因為它對我們來說有點不透明，原料的進來和相對於每天在市場上進行匹配的時機。

Yes. I would say the outlook for renewable diesel, it is difficult to predict exactly how it will play out because you do have additional capacity coming online and into fixed credit banks for both RINs and LCFS that would naturally say that those credit value should come down with additional capacity, which would narrow RD margins. That being said, we also see that feedstock prices continue to come down, both waste oil and veg oil. So then you get into the waste oils will always structurally have a lower CI advantage over veg oil.

是的。我想說的是再生柴油的前景，很難準確預測它將如何發揮作用，因為確實有額外的產能上線並進入 RIN 和 LCFS 的固定信貸銀行，這自然會說這些信貸價值應該會下降額外的產能，這將縮小研發利潤。話雖如此，我們也看到原料價格持續下降，包括廢油和植物油。因此，廢油在結構上總是比植物油具有更低的 CI 優勢。

So where veg oils will be long, they still won't be competitive to waste oils into compliance markets. So it goes back to the core of the DGD business, which is a low-cost producer waste oils, access to markets besides California. And so we still see that we'll be competitively advantaged, both from an OpEx and feedstock standpoint. But overall, the outlook, I would say, is we expect that credit prices will continue to narrow. And it's a question of how feedstock prices will keep up with that.

因此，在植物油長期存在的地方，它們仍然不具備將廢油進入合規市場的競爭力。所以這又回到了DGD業務的核心，即低成本生產廢油，進入加州以外的市場。因此，我們仍然認為，從營運支出和原料的角度來看，我們都將具有競爭優勢。但總體而言，我想說的是，我們預期信貸價格將繼續收窄。問題在於原料價格將如何跟上。

And so -- and then the last thing, besides diversifying sales away from California is obviously with our project, we'll be diversifying into SAF, which takes some of our product out of this RD market. So we think both of those things make us still the most competitive and advantaged platform in R&D, even in a tightening market.

因此，最後一件事，除了我們的專案將銷售從加州轉移出去之外，我們還將多元化進入 SAF，這將我們的一些產品帶出這個 RD 市場。因此，我們認為，即使在市場緊縮的情況下，這兩件事使我們仍然是研發領域最具競爭力和優勢的平台。

So is it fair to summarize that as there's probably a lot more clarity on, let's call it, the supply side of R&D this year and a lot less clarity on the feedstock side? In other words, where we should look for relative opportunity is probably on your feedstock rather than, say, the sales price of R&D?

那麼這樣總結是否公平，因為今年研發的供應方面可能更加明確，而原料方面則不太明確？換句話說，我們應該在原料上尋找相對機會，而不是研發的銷售價格？

Yes, I think that would be fair to say that most of that is still being a CI advantage in waste oils over vegetable oils.

是的，我認為可以公平地說，其中大部分仍然是廢油相對於植物油的 CI 優勢。

The next question is coming from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe a question on turnaround activity. Your looks relatively heavy in the first quarter. Is that indicative of what we should expect to be a higher level of overall maintenance for you in 2024, just front-end loaded? And then maybe any thoughts in terms of what you're seeing for overall industry maintenance activity this year. Is this -- should we expect this to be another relatively heavy year?

也許是關於週轉活動的問題。第一季你看起來比較沉重。這是否表明我們應該期望在 2024 年為您提供更高水準的整體維護（僅前端加載）？然後也許是對今年整體產業維護活動的看法。我們是否應該預期今年將是另一個相對沉重的一年？

Ryan, this is Greg. Normally, we don't talk about our overall turnaround plans. You can tell from the guidance, a fair amount of activity for us in the first quarter. I think when we get out through the rest of the year, we'll talk about those periods as we come up to, I think from an industry perspective, we are seeing a fair amount of turnaround activity across the industry in the first quarter. So getting kind of to Gary's point, it looks like it's going to be a heavy season for the industry in general, a lot of it in the Gulf Coast to a lot of focus there.

瑞安，這是格雷格。通常，我們不會談論我們的整體週轉計劃。您可以從指導中看出，我們第一季的活動量相當大。我認為，當我們度過今年剩下的時間時，我們將討論這些時期，我認為從行業的角度來看，我們在第一季看到整個行業出現了大量的扭虧為盈活動。因此，就加里的觀點而言，對於整個行業來說，這似乎將是一個繁忙的季節，其中許多都集中在墨西哥灣沿岸。

The only other thing we may add is although you can see the throughput guidance, we don't really expect it to impact our capture rates.

我們唯一可以添加的另一件事是，儘管您可以看到吞吐量指南，但我們並不真正期望它會影響我們的捕獲率。

And then maybe just a follow-up question on capital spend and growth capital spend. I appreciate it, Homer, you gave a little bit of detail there in terms of some of the things that are competing for the wedge of growth capital within your budget. I mean most of your larger project-driven work is either finished recently or you've got the SAF project, which isn't really all that large.

然後可能只是關於資本支出和成長資本支出的後續問題。我很欣賞荷馬，您在預算中提供了一些爭奪成長資本楔子的細節。我的意思是，您的大部分大型專案驅動工作要么最近完成，要么您已經完成了 SAF 項目，該項目實際上並不是那麼大。

But as you look forward on the horizon, are there any other meaningful environmental or regulatory-driven capital things that we should be keeping our eyes on over the next couple of years that could draw some more capital that way? Or what types of things make -- or should we expect just more of these kind of small little netback-driven projects across the refining side over the next few years?

但當你展望未來時，我們是否應該在未來幾年內關注其他有意義的環境或監管驅動的資本事物，從而吸引更多資本？或者什麼類型的東西會產生——或者我們是否應該期望在未來幾年裡煉油方面會有更多這種小型的淨收益驅動的項目？

Ryan, it's Lane. The way I would think about this is if you go back when we -- historically, we used to sort of spend, I would say, we spend $1.5 billion sustainable capital. That would actually include regulatory capital. I mean that's how we frame it. It sort of maintain our assets to generate the earnings we're supposed to and try to work your sustain -- your regulatory capital in that, albeit it would be lumpy. And so you're going to average around that number. So that's how we think about the regulatory side of it. I don't really foresee at least right now that we have a large regulatory spend. Clearly, that could always change.

瑞安，我是萊恩。我思考這個問題的方式是，如果你回顧我們——從歷史上看，我們曾經花費過，我想說，我們花費了 15 億美元的可持續資本。這實際上包括監管資本。我的意思是我們就是這樣建構它的。它在某種程度上維持我們的資產，以產生我們應該獲得的收益，並努力維持你的維持——你的監管資本，儘管它會不穩定。所以你要對這個數字進行平均。這就是我們對監管方面的看法。至少現在我並沒有真正預見到我們將會有大量的監管支出。顯然，這種情況隨時可能改變。

In terms of our strategic capital, historically, we were around $1 billion. As an organization, we felt like -- we feel like we can execute $1 billion pretty well. We have some experience over 10, 11 years ago where we spent more on strategic capital and then and it was sort of difficult to manage. And so we, as an organization, we decided that we're going to live within a sort of $1 billion on the upside of strategic capital.

就我們的戰略資本而言，歷史上我們約為 10 億美元。作為一個組織，我們感覺——我們感覺我們可以很好地執行 10 億美元的任務。我們在 10、11 年前有過一些經驗，當時我們在策略資本上投入了更多資金，然後管理起來有點困難。因此，作為一個組織，我們決定將戰略資本的上限維持在 10 億美元左右。

Since COVID, we've been at about $0.5 billion, and that's our guidance right now. And we feel like that's a pretty good number year in and year out that we're going to steward around that there'll be enough projects, whether they're in refining or transportation or our renewable platforms that all meet and work through our gated process to meet our return thresholds.

自新冠疫情爆發以來，我們的營收約為 5 億美元，這是我們目前的指引。我們覺得這是一個相當不錯的數字，我們將年復一年地管理，將有足夠的項目，無論是煉油、運輸還是我們的可再生能源平台，它們都通過我們的門控來滿足和工作滿足我們的退貨門檻的流程。

The next question is coming from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

I just don't know whether this will be Lane or Gary. If we're looking at octane last year that was very strong. If this year that I think a lot of people expect because after last year, the global gasoline demand growth rate probably will slow down, China is definitely slowing down. And I think U.S. may even go into a structural decline, if that will be the case, how you expect the octane landing is going to look like? And whether -- how that impact or what kind of impact is on your financial result will be? That's the first question.

我只是不知道這是萊恩還是加里。如果我們看去年的辛烷值，那是非常強的。如果今年我想很多人都預計，因為繼去年之後，全球汽油需求成長速度可能會放緩，中國肯定也在放緩。我認為美國甚至可能會陷入結構性下降，如果是這樣的話，您預計辛烷值下降會是什麼樣子？這種影響或會對您的財務表現產生什麼樣的影響？這是第一個問題。

Okay. Yes. So I would say a couple of things on Octane. Certainly, the incremental crude barrel that's been coming on to the market has been a light sweet barrel, which has created more naphtha yield coming on to the market. And with pet chem demand being somewhat down, that incremental barrel of naphtha that's being produced is trying to find its way into the gasoline pool. And so what that does is it really causes octanes and naphthas to trade at an inverse when naphtha gets long -- naphtha gets weak and then octane starts to trade at a premium.

好的。是的。所以我想就 Octane 說幾句話。當然，進入市場的增量原油是輕質低硫原油，創造了更多進入市場的石腦油產量。隨著石油化學產品的需求下降，正在生產的石腦油增量正試圖進入汽油池。因此，當石腦油變多時，它確實會導致辛烷和石腦油以相反的方式進行交易——石腦油變弱，然後辛烷開始以溢價進行交易。

So you can try to blend that naphtha barrel into the gasoline pool. I don't know that we see that being significantly different this year. The one thing I would tell that I've already mentioned, if there's a prolonged outage in Russia at the refinery that was hit by the drone attack and there's less naphtha out on the market. that could tell you that octanes tend to be a little bit weaker this year. But absent that, I don't see any fundamental differences in the naphtha where octane markets. Greg, I don't know if you have anything?

所以你可以嘗試將石腦油桶混合到汽油池中。我不知道今年我們會看到這種情況有什麼顯著差異。我要說的一件事是，我已經提到過，如果俄羅斯受無人機襲擊的煉油廠長時間停電，市場上的石腦油減少。這可以告訴您今年的辛烷值往往會稍弱一些。但如果沒有這一點，我認為辛烷市場的石腦油沒有任何根本差異。格雷格，我不知道你有什麼嗎？

Yes, I agree.

是的我同意。

And Gary, are you guys net loan or balance on octane?

加里，你們是淨貸款還是辛烷餘額？

It varies. I would say we're fairly balanced on octane. We're long naphtha, so you can always soak up octane that way. But overall, in octane, I'd say fairly balanced.

它有所不同。我想說我們在辛烷值上相當平衡。我們是長石腦油，因此您始終可以透過這種方式吸收辛烷。但總的來說，在辛烷值方面，我認為相當平衡。

And Gary and Greg, that you guys have a marketing operation in Mexico and in the Caribbean. In Mexico, any insight how's the local demand look like?

加里和格雷格，你們在墨西哥和加勒比地區有行銷業務。在墨西哥，您了解當地的需求嗎？

Yes. So our business there continues to grow very, very nicely. Year-over-year, our volumes were up 16% in Mexico. We now have 250 branded sites, which was the largest growing brand in Mexico. I think the big change for this year is in the second quarter of this year, we anticipate the terminal that we'll use in Northern Mexico and Altamira will start up it will allow us to be more competitive in that region, which we would expect us to then be able to continue the growth that we've seen.

是的。所以我們在那裡的業務繼續非常非常好的成長。我們在墨西哥的銷量年增了 16%。我們現在擁有 250 個品牌網站，這是墨西哥成長最快的品牌。我認為今年的重大變化是在今年第二季度，我們預計我們將在墨西哥北部和阿爾塔米拉使用的航站樓將啟動，這將使我們在該地區更具競爭力，這是我們所期望的以便我們能夠繼續我們所看到的成長。

How about outside your operation, but that the market as a whole, do you see the gasoline market in Mexico is growing or that is maybe a little bit pullback?

在您的業務之外，但從整個市場來看，您認為墨西哥的汽油市場正在成長還是可能有點回調？

Yes. So our view is Mexico basically recovered last year to pre-COVID levels. And our expectation is you'll see -- continue to see good growth in the gasoline market in Mexico.

是的。因此我們的觀點是墨西哥去年基本上恢復到新冠疫情前的水平。我們的期望是，您會看到墨西哥汽油市場繼續保持良好成長。

The next question is coming from Joe Laetsch of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Joe Laetsch。

So I wanted to start off going back to an earlier point, you mentioned some of the cold weather on the Gulf Coast in the past couple of weeks. Were there any material impacts to operations or crude and product price dislocations that we should be mindful of for the first quarter?

所以我想先回到先前的觀點，您提到了過去幾週墨西哥灣沿岸的一些寒冷天氣。第一季我們應該注意的營運或原油和產品價格混亂是否有任何重大影響？

No. I would tell you, we had some small operational issues, boiler trips, heater trips, but nothing that's going to materially impact the quarter and we still feel like the throughput guidance that we've given holds.

不，我會告訴你，我們遇到了一些小運營問題，鍋爐跳閘，加熱器跳閘，但沒有什麼會對本季度產生實質性影響，我們仍然認為我們給出的吞吐量指導是有效的。

Great. And then shifting to renewable diesel. So volumes averaged above nameplate capacity for the year, which is good to see. It seems like a consistent theme about performance there. Any reason why we shouldn't expect a similar level of outperformance in 2024, such as turnarounds or anything?

偉大的。然後轉向再生柴油。因此，今年的平均銷量高於銘牌容量，這是一件好事。這似乎是關於表演的一致主題。為什麼我們不應該期望 2024 年出現類似水準的優異表現，例如扭虧為盈或其他什麼？

Yes. I think we kept the guidance at the $1.2 billion. We've got a couple of cap changes this year. And obviously, when we convert to SAF, there could be a change in capacity because we do have to run the unit a little harder in that mode. So we're not sure what capacity will look like to that until we get the project on the ground and start it up. So I think this time next year, we'll have an outlook of what our capacity guidance will be whether it's up or down.

是的。我認為我們將指導方針維持在 12 億美元。今年我們進行了幾次上限變更。顯然，當我們轉換為 SAF 時，容量可能會發生變化，因為我們確實必須在該模式下更努力地運行設備。因此，在專案落地並啟動之前，我們不確定容量會是什麼樣子。因此，我認為明年這個時候，我們將展望我們的產能指導，無論是上升還是下降。

The next question is coming from Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

The first one is on refining OpEx. And I think the market has been less focused on that metric in recent years, just given all of the strength in the margins but perhaps it becomes a bit more of a focus as margins may be normalized here to some extent.

第一個是優化營運支出。我認為，近年來市場不太關注這項指標，只是考慮到利潤率的強勁表現，但隨著利潤率可能在某種程度上正常化，它可能會變得更加受關注。

And looking at your system, I think historically, you were at $3.50 per barrel refining OpEx. This year, you were, I think, around $4.50 million a barrel at a similar Henry Hub price to historical levels. So just wondering what has been driving that higher OpEx this year versus kind of the pre-COVID level and if you expect it to stay at this higher rate or to come back down?

看看你們的系統，我認為從歷史上看，你們的煉油運營成本是每桶 3.50 美元。我認為今年的價格約為每桶 450 萬美元，亨利中心價格與歷史水準相似。因此，我想知道是什麼推動了今年營運支出高於新冠疫情前的水平，以及您是否預計營運支出會保持在較高水平還是會回落？

Jason, this is Greg. So one of the things that's probably most notable when you think over that period has been electricity prices, so not so much natural gas, but on the power side. A lot of the places where we operate have seen power costs, particularly in the summer, be quite a bit higher than we had seen historically. So that's a part of it.

傑森，這是格雷格。因此，當你思考那個時期時，最值得注意的事情之一可能是電價，所以不是天然氣，而是電力方面。我們經營的許多地方的電力成本，特別是在夏季，都比我們歷史上看到的要高得多。這就是其中的一部分。

The other part that thinking back over that time frame would also be more recently, some cost inflation pressure, and we've talked about that a few times before. That seems to be easing. So that's something we're working on to rein back in with our suppliers and folks that we worked with.

另一方面，回顧那個時間框架也將是最近的一些成本通膨壓力，我們之前已經討論過幾次。這似乎正在緩解。因此，我們正在努力控制供應商和與我們合作的人員。

Hey, Jason, this is Lane. I will say still the lowest cost guide, and we work on this like you cannot imagine, you should know that as an organization, we're committed to making sure that we are the best in class with expenses.

嘿，傑森，這是萊恩。我會說仍然是最低成本指南，我們在這方面的工作是你無法想像的，你應該知道，作為一個組織，我們致力於確保我們在費用方面是同類中最好的。

Yes. No, we're definitely sure. Is there any expectation to get back down below $4 or is this kind of $4.50 the range we should think about moving forward?

是的。不，我們絕對確定。是否有任何預期會回落到 4 美元以下，或者這種 4.50 美元是我們應該考慮繼續前進的範圍嗎？

We'll have a look at the numbers. I mean part of the other thing that really drives this in your throughput, throughput even though we have what we would characterize as a variable and fixed cost, we run in through our expenses, most refining expenses are in large part 6. So the more barrels we run, the better that metric work.

我們將看看這些數字。我的意思是，真正推動吞吐量的另一件事是，吞吐量，即使我們有我們所描述的可變和固定成本，我們通過我們的費用運行，大多數精煉費用大部分都在6 中。所以更多我們運行的桶子越多，公制工作就越好。

And so you really got to -- the best time of the year to look at that and to really understand that is sort of third quarter, essentially. That's really when you're seeing the system. Normally, if we have the signal to run the highest, both things that are online and the cost structures are where they are. So it's the best time to get an understanding of where the base OpEx is for the system.

所以你真的必須——一年中最好的時間來審視這一點並真正理解這一點，本質上是第三季。那確實是當你看到系統的時候。通常，如果我們有運行最高的訊號，那麼在線的東西和成本結構都在它們所在的位置。因此，現在是了解系統的基本營運支出在哪裡的最佳時機。

My other question is on the refining growth CapEx, and you rattled off a bunch of what seems like quick-hit projects that clear your return hurdles, is what -- is there a way you could kind of frame these projects together in terms of potential improvement to capture and kind of whatever stable margin environment, you would evaluate that on or any type of way you could frame the potential upside from these projects? Or is it alternatively just keeping capture maybe stable and enabling flexibility to keep capture stable?

我的另一個問題是關於煉油成長資本支出，你滔滔不絕地提出了一系列看似快速成功的項目，可以清除你的回報障礙，有沒有一種方法可以將這些項目從潛力方面整合在一起捕獲的改進以及任何穩定的利潤環境，您會評估這些項目的潛在優勢或任何類型的方式嗎？或者只是保持捕獲穩定並啟用靈活性以保持捕獲穩定？

Yes. So the way I would think about this is we're going to try to do a little more delineation in our IR pack deck to try to maybe demonstrate the success of a lot of our projects and our gating process. But we're still disciplined in that we don't want to have all this forward-looking conversation around projects, whether they're small or big or whatever. What we do is we -- we have demonstrated, hopefully, to everyone that our process does generate returns and then we had -- and that we've -- like I said earlier, we nominally, at least today, I think we have $0.5 billion a year of spend that will generate the returns we think will make its way through the gated process.

是的。因此，我思考這個問題的方式是，我們將嘗試在 IR 包中進行更多描述，以嘗試展示我們的許多專案和門控流程的成功。但我們仍然遵守紀律，因為我們不想圍繞著專案進行所有這些前瞻性對話，無論專案是小還是大還是其他什麼。我們所做的是——我們希望向每個人證明我們的流程確實會產生回報，然後我們——而且我們已經——就像我之前所說的那樣，我們名義上，至少今天，我認為我們已經每年5 億美元的支出將產生回報，我們認為這將透過嚴格的流程實現。

The next question is coming from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的馬修布萊爾。

Thanks for the commentary on light heavy earlier. I believe Valero runs about 200 a day of WCS at Houston in your Gulf Coast system. Is that correct? And is there any risk to that availability with TMX starting up soon?

感謝您之前對輕重的評論。我相信 Valero 在休士頓的墨西哥灣沿岸系統每天運行約 200 個 WCS。那是對的嗎？ TMX 即將啟動，這種可用性是否有任何風險？

Yes. So our Canadian volumes vary -- it depends on total heavies, we're probably 600,000 barrels a day, Greg, right? 500,000 to 600,000 barrels a day, and we have the ability to optimize between Mexican supply, it's live for Venezuela and Canada. Our view of TMX is that you'll still have the Gulf Coast barrels coming from Western Canada. And what it will really do is decrease exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast, and we don't really think that our Gulf Coast system will be materially impacted by TMX.

是的。所以我們加拿大的產量有所不同——這取決於重油總量，我們可能每天生產 60 萬桶，格雷格，對嗎？每天 50 萬至 60 萬桶，我們有能力優化墨西哥供應、委內瑞拉和加拿大的供應。我們對 TMX 的看法是，您仍然會擁有來自加拿大西部的墨西哥灣沿岸桶。它真正要做的是減少美​​國墨西哥灣沿岸的出口，我們不認為我們的墨西哥灣沿岸系統會受到 TMX 的重大影響。

And then I had another question on capital returns. So keeping in mind that the Q4 buybacks were quite strong, payout ratio of 73% clearly impressive. We just found it intriguing that your cash balance actually showed a build year-over-year in 2023. And I would say you started the year with maybe $2 billion of excess cash, ended the year with maybe $3 billion of excess cash.

然後我還有一個關於資本回報的問題。因此，請記住，第四季度的回購相當強勁，73% 的股息率顯然令人印象深刻。我們只是發現有趣的是，您的現金餘額實際上在 2023 年同比增加。我想說，您年初可能有 20 億美元的超額現金，年底可能有 30 億美元的超額現金。

So could you talk about why that happened? Were there any mechanical limits on buybacks or were you locked out of the market? And then of that $3 billion in excess cash that you have now, do you have any sort of internal targets on -- you look to pay down maybe $1 billion or $2 billion of that in 2024?

那麼您能談談為什麼會發生這種情況嗎？回購是否有任何機械限制，或者您被排除在市場之外？那麼，在您現在擁有的 30 億美元多餘現金中，您是否有任何內部目標——您希望在 2024 年償還其中的 10 億美元或 20 億美元？

Yes. Matthew, it's Homer. I mean I think, first of all, we're comfortable with where we are from a cash balance perspective. But we've discussed in the past, we like to stay above $4 billion. We had a very, very strong payout, right, particularly for the quarter, but then also for the year. In terms of paying down, like, for example, we look at debt right on the debt side, we proactively look at our portfolio through a liability management lens. And so given the strength of our balance sheet, we don't really currently have any pressing need to pay down debt with a net debt-to-cap ratio of 18%. But it's an ongoing evaluation, and it's something that we look at.

是的。馬修，這是荷馬。我的意思是，我認為，首先，從現金餘額的角度來看，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。但我們過去討論過，我們希望保持在 40 億美元以上。我們的支出非常非常強勁，對吧，特別是在這個季度，但在今年也是如此。在償還債務方面，例如，我們從債務方面審視債務，我們透過負債管理的視角主動審視我們的投資組合。因此，考慮到我們資產負債表的實力，我們目前確實沒有任何迫切需要償還淨債務與上限比率為 18% 的債務。但這是一個持續的評估，也是我們關注的事情。

And just to clarify, you said your minimum cash balance is now $4 billion?

澄清一下，您說您的最低現金餘額現在是 40 億美元？

We like to stay above $4 billion.

我們希望保持在 40 億美元以上。

Yes. And so we changed that. I don't know, it's a couple of years. We're really coming out of COVID. Going into COVID, we'd taken the strategy, trying to push it all the way down to $2 billion. And found going into COVID that our experience was that was probably too low. So we've decided to bring it on and go ahead and look at our minimum closer to $4 billion. Good thing about being a $4 billion now versus $2 billion before is we actually do earn a return on that cash before it was zero. So -- but that's really due to our experience as we went through COVID.

是的。所以我們改變了這一點。我不知道，一兩年了。我們真的已經走出新冠疫情的陰影了。進入新冠疫情期間，我們採取了策略，試圖將資金一路壓低至 20 億美元。並發現進入新冠疫情後，我們的經驗可能太低了。因此，我們決定繼續實施並繼續考慮接近 40 億美元的最低金額。現在的規模為 40 億美元，而之前的規模為 20 億美元，好處是我們確實在現金回報為零之前獲得了回報。所以——但這其實是由於我們經歷了新冠疫情時的經歷。

Thank you. This brings us to the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn it back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我想將其轉回給 Bhullar 先生以供結束評論。

Thanks, Donna. So that concludes our opening remarks. I'm sorry, that's -- if you guys have any follow-up questions, obviously, feel free to ping us, ping the IR team. Thanks again for joining us, and have a wonderful week.

謝謝，唐娜。我們的開場白就到此結束。很抱歉，如果你們有任何後續問題，顯然，請隨時與我們聯絡、聯絡 IR 團隊。再次感謝您加入我們，祝您有個愉快的一週。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation and interest in Valero. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們先生們，感謝您的參與以及對瓦萊羅的關注。此時您可以斷開線路或登出網路廣播，然後享受剩下的一天。