瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Valero Energy Corp. fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President of Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

問候，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corp. 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our Chairman, CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO, and Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起的還有我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Lane Riggs；我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Jason Fraser 和我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Gary Simmons；以及 Valero 高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到收益報告並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站 investorvalero.com 上找到。收益報告還附有表格，提供有關我們業務部門的額外財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的對帳和揭露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請在通話結束後隨時聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

現在，我想提請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總而言之，新聞稿和電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的期望或預測的聲明都是前瞻性的聲明，旨在受聯邦證券法的安全港條款的保護。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所描述的因素。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在，我將電話轉給萊恩，請他致開場白。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. I would like to start by highlighting some of our team's accomplishments last year. 2024 was our best year for personnel and process safety and one of our best years for environmental performance. Safe and reliable operations drive overall performance and disciplined operations.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。首先我想強調一下我們團隊去年所做的一些成就。 2024 年是我們人員和製程安全最好的一年，也是我們環境績效最好的一年之一。安全可靠的操作可推動整體績效和紀律嚴明的營運。

In refining, we processed a record volume of heavy sour crude in the fourth quarter. This demonstrates our refining systems flexibility and highlights the capability of our commercial and operations teams to be able to secure and process the most economic crude oils.

在煉油方面，我們在第四季度處理了創紀錄數量的重質酸性原油。這證明了我們煉油系統的靈活性，並凸顯了我們的商業和營運團隊能夠確保和加工最經濟的原油的能力。

Finally, we set a record for ethanol production with the expansion of the Charles City plant and process optimization at other sites. Our team's relentless focus on operational excellence and low-cost operations enabled us to deliver positive results in the fourth quarter in an otherwise weak margin environment.

最後，我們透過查爾斯城工廠的擴建和其他工廠的流程優化創下了乙醇產量的記錄。我們團隊堅持不懈地專注於卓越營運和低成本運營，這使得我們在利潤率較低的環境下於第四季度取得了積極的業績。

On the strategic front, we continue to deliver on our commitment to grow Valero's earnings capacity through organic investments. The DGD sustainable aviation fuel project was successfully started up in the fourth quarter and is now fully operational.

在策略方面，我們繼續履行透過有機投資提高瓦萊羅獲利能力的承諾。DGD永續航空燃料計畫於第四季成功啟動，目前已全面投入營運。

Looking ahead, we are progressing with an SEC unit optimization project at St. Charles that will enable the refinery to increase the yield of high-value products, including high-octane alkylate. The project is estimated to cost $230 million is expected to start up in 2026. And we continue to pursue other short-cycle, high-return optimization projects around our existing refining assets.

展望未來，我們正在推進聖查爾斯 SEC 裝置優化項目，這將使煉油廠能夠提高高辛烷值烷基化油等高價值產品的產量。該計畫預計耗資2.3億美元，將於2026年啟動。我們將繼續圍繞現有煉油資產開展其他短週期、高回報的優化項目。

On the financial side, we continue to honor our commitment to shareholder returns with a strong payout ratio of 78% for the year. And earlier this month, our board approved a 6% increase in the quarterly cash dividend, further demonstrating our strong financial position.

在財務方面，我們持續履行對股東回報的承諾，全年派息率高達 78%。本月初，我們的董事會批准將季度現金股息提高 6%，進一步證明了我們強勁的財務狀況。

Looking ahead, refining margins should be supported by low light product inventories ahead of the driving season. And longer term, we still expect product demand to exceed supply with the announced refinery shutdowns this year and the limited capacity additions beyond 2025 supporting long-term refining fundamentals.

展望未來，駕駛季節到來前，較低的輕質產品庫存應能支撐煉油利潤率。從長遠來看，我們仍預計產品需求將超過供應，因為今年宣布的煉油廠關閉和 2025 年後有限的產能增加將支撐長期煉油基本面。

So with that, Homer, I'll hand it back to you.

因此，荷馬，我將把它交還給你。

Thanks, Lane. For the fourth quarter of 2024, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $281 million or $0.88 per share compared to $1.2 billion or $3.55 per share for the fourth quarter of 2023. Excluding the adjustments in the earnings release tables, adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $207 million or $0.64 per share for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to $1.2 billion or $3.57 per share for the fourth quarter of 2023. .

謝謝，萊恩。2024 年第四季度，歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨收入為 2.81 億美元或每股 0.88 美元，而 2023 年第四季為 12 億美元或每股 3.55 美元。不包括損益表中的調整，2024 年第四季歸屬於 Valero 股東的調整後淨收入為 2.07 億美元或每股 0.64 美元，而 2023 年第四季為 12 億美元或每股 3.57 美元。。

For 2024, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.8 billion or $8.58 per share compared to $8.8 billion or $24.92 per share in 2023. 2024 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.7 billion or $8.48 per share compared to $8.9 billion or $24.96 per share in 2023. The refining segment reported $437 million of operating income for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter of 2023.

2024 年，歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨收入為 28 億美元或每股 8.58 美元，而 2023 年為 88 億美元或每股 24.92 美元。 2024 年歸屬於 Valero 股東的調整後淨收入為 27 億美元或每股 8.480 億美元，而 2023 年為 2023 年每股 2023 美元。煉油部門報告 2024 年第四季的營業收入為 4.37 億美元，而 2023 年第四季的營業收入為 16 億美元。

Refining throughput volumes in the fourth quarter of 2024 averaged 3 million barrels per day or 94% throughput capacity utilization. Refining cash operating expenses were $4.67 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024.

2024 年第四季的煉油吞吐量平均為每天 300 萬桶，或吞吐量利用率為 94%。2024 年第四季煉油現金營運費用為每桶 4.67 美元。

Renewable Diesel segment operating income was $170 million for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to $84 million for the fourth quarter of 2023. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 3.4 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2024. The ethanol segment reported $20 million of operating income for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to $190 million for the fourth quarter of 2023.

2024 年第四季再生柴油部門營業收入為 1.7 億美元，而 2023 年第四季為 8,400 萬美元。2024 年第四季度，再生柴油銷售量平均為每天 340 萬加侖。乙醇部門報告 2024 年第四季的營業收入為 2,000 萬美元，而 2023 年第四季的營業收入為 1.9 億美元。

Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.6 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2024. G&A expenses were $266 million for the fourth quarter of 2024 and $961 million for the full year. Depreciation and amortization expense was $698 million, net interest expense was $135 million and income tax benefit was $34 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. The effective tax rate was 19% for 2024.

2024 年第四季度，乙醇產量平均為每天 460 萬加侖。2024 年第四季的 G&A 費用為 2.66 億美元，全年的 G&A 費用為 9.61 億美元。2024 年第四季的折舊和攤提費用為 6.98 億美元，淨利息支出為 1.35 億美元，所得稅收益為 3,400 萬美元。2024 年有效稅率為 19%。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Included in this amount was $119 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD. Excluding this item, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $951 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

2024 年第四季經營活動提供的淨現金為 11 億美元。該金額包括與 DGD 其他合資成員股份相關的經營活動所提供的 1.19 億美元調整後淨現金。除此項目外，2024 年第四季調整後的營業活動淨現金為 9.51 億美元。

Net cash provided by operating activities in 2024 was $6.7 billion. Included in this amount was a $795 million favorable change in-working capital and $371 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD. Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $5.5 billion in 2024.

2024年經營活動提供的淨現金為67億美元。該金額包括7.95億美元的營運資本有利變化和3.71億美元的與DGD其他合資成員股份相關的經營活動提供的調整後淨現金。除這些項目外，2024 年調整後的營業活動淨現金為 55 億美元。

Regarding investing activities, we made $547 million of capital investments in the fourth quarter of 2024 of which $452 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business. Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD and other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $515 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $1.9 billion for the year.

關於投資活動，我們在 2024 年第四季進行了 5.47 億美元的資本投資，其中 4.52 億美元用於維持業務，包括扭虧為盈、催化劑和監管合規成本，餘額用於成長業務。不包括歸屬於 DGD 和其他可變利益實體的其他合資成員份額的資本投資，歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資在 2024 年第四季為 5.15 億美元，全年為 19 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $601 million to our stockholders in the fourth quarter of 2024, of which $339 million was paid as dividends and $262 million was for the purchase of approximately 2 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 63% for the quarter. In 2024, we returned $4.3 billion to stockholders consisting of $2.9 billion in stock buybacks and $1.4 billion in dividends, resulting in a payout ratio of 78% for the year. In fact, since the start of 2021, our total cash flow from operations have exceeded our total uses of cash over this period, including capital investments.

轉向融資活動。我們在 2024 年第四季向股東返還了 6.01 億美元，其中 3.39 億美元作為股息支付，2.62 億美元用於購買約 200 萬股普通股，本季的派息率為 63%。2024 年，我們向股東返還了 43 億美元，其中包括 29 億美元的股票回購和 14 億美元的股息，全年股息率為 78%。事實上，自 2021 年初以來，我們的經營活動產生的總現金流已經超過了這段期間的總現金使用量（包括資本投資）。

During this time, we delivered over $4 billion of debt reduction and returned approximately $18.7 billion to stockholders through dividends and share buybacks. Through share repurchases, we reduced our share count by approximately 6% in 2024 and by 23% since year-end 2021.

在此期間，我們減少了超過 40 億美元的債務，並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 187 億美元。透過股票回購，我們在 2024 年將股票數量減少了約 6%，自 2021 年底以來減少了 23%。

With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $8.1 billion of total debt, $2.4 billion of finance lease obligations and $4.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Debt to capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 17% as of December 31, 2024. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

就我們的資產負債表而言，本季末我們的總債務為 81 億美元，融資租賃債務為 24 億美元，現金和現金等價物為 47 億美元。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的債務資本化率為 17%。截至本季末，我們的資本充足，擁有 53 億美元可用流動資金（不包括現金）。

Turning to guidance. We expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2025 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalyst, regulatory compliance and joint venture investments. About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth.

轉向指導。我們預計 2025 年 Valero 的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑、法規合規和合資投資的支出。其中約 16 億美元用於維持業務和平衡成長。

For modeling our first quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.72 million to 1.77 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 415,000 to 435,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 190,000 to 210,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 455,000 to 475,000 barrels per day.

為了模擬我們第一季的營運情況，我們預計煉油產量將在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸地區為每天 172 萬桶至 177 萬桶；中部地區日產量為 415,000 至 435,000 桶；西海岸產量為每天 190,000 至 210,000 桶；北大西洋的日產量為 455,000 至 475,000 桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the first quarter to be approximately $4.95 per barrel. With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2025. Operating expenses in 2025 should be $0.51 per gallon, which includes $0.22 per gallon for non-cash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們預計第一季煉油現金營運費用約為每桶 4.95 美元。對於再生柴油領域，我們預計 2025 年的銷售量將達到約 12 億加侖。2025 年的營運費用應為每加侖 0.51 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.22 美元的折舊和攤提等非現金成本。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.6 million gallons per day in the first quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.41 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們的乙醇部門預計第一季每天產量為 460 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.41 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。

For the first quarter, net interest expense should be about $130 million, and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $710 million. For 2025, we expect G&A expenses to be approximately $985 million. That concludes our opening remarks. Before we open the call to questions, please limit each turn in the Q&A to two questions. If you have more than two questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

第一季度，淨利息支出應約為 1.3 億美元，總折舊和攤銷支出應約為 7.1 億美元。到 2025 年，我們預計 G&A 費用約為 9.85 億美元。我們的開場白到此結束。在我們開始提問之前，請將每次問答環節的問題限制為兩個。如果您有兩個以上的問題，請在時間允許的情況下重新加入佇列，以確保其他呼叫者有時間提出問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

John Royall, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is maybe to Gary, just broadly on market color. You've always given us a good view of the fundamental picture in the sector. How do you view the supply-demand balances today for products and the outlook for cracks for this year? And what do you think are the key things we should look out for in terms of just any early indicators of when this market might turn back up?

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。所以我的第一個問題可能是問 Gary，大致是關於市場狀況。您總是能讓我們對該行業的基本面有良好的了解。您如何看待目前產品的供需平衡以及今年裂解產品的前景？您認為，就市場何時可能回升的早期指標而言，我們應該關注哪些關鍵事項？

Yes, John. It's always difficult to get much of a read on the market this early. I'll tell you that we typically see our sales through our wholesale channel dipped fairly significantly through the holiday season kind of goes through the first couple of weeks of the year and then starts to recover.

是的，約翰。這麼早就了解市場狀況總是很困難的。我告訴你，我們通常會看到，透過批發管道的銷售額在假期季節會出現相當大的下降，這種下降會在一年頭幾週開始恢復。

We saw that same dynamic this year. Sales kind of dipped to about 85% on average. The last couple of weeks, we've seen a nice recovery back to kind of million barrels a day level that we typically see. I think yesterday, we did 140,000 barrels a day.

今年我們也看到了同樣的動態。銷售額平均下降至約 85%。過去幾週，我們看到石油產量順利回升至通常的每日百萬桶的水平。我想昨天我們每天生產了14萬桶。

Gasoline sales in our system year-to-date are slightly down year-over-year. I think when you look at the concentration of our marketing, this makes sense. The snow in the south and southeast kept people off the road, and then the Colonial pipeline outage limited our volumes we had available to sell in some markets for that window, the pipeline was down.

我們系統中的汽油銷售量今年迄今同比略有下降。我認為，當你觀察我們的行銷集中度時，這是有道理的。南部和東南部的降雪導致人們無法上路，而 Colonial 輸油管中斷，也限制了我們在某些​​市場上的銷售量，因為管道中斷了。

Our current seven day average data shows gasoline sales up 2% year-over-year. Overall, what we can see is gasoline demand looks good, and we expect gasoline demand in the United States to be fairly flat to last year.

我們目前的七天平均數據顯示汽油銷量年增 2%。總體而言，我們看到汽油需求良好，我們預計美國的汽油需求將與去年持平。

Diesel sales year-to-date in our system are also off a few percent. This was a little more surprising to be mainly because of the cold weather that we've seen. But I think if you look into the data a little bit more, it makes sense. We had about 10,000 barrels a day of renewable diesel from Port Arthur that was going to our wholesale channel that we were selling. That material is now going to produce sustainable aviation fuel. So that's a chunk in the year-over-year decline in diesel sales.

我們系統中今年迄今的柴油銷售量也下降了幾個百分點。這有點令人驚訝，主要是因為我們看到了寒冷的天氣。但我認為，如果你進一步研究數據，你會發現它很有道理。我們每天從亞瑟港進口約 10,000 桶再生柴油，然後運送到我們的批發通路進行銷售。該材料現在將用於生產永續航空燃料。因此，這是柴油銷量年減的很大一部分。

In addition to that, we saw the same dynamic on diesel with the snow impacting on-road diesel demand. And then I think if you look at Valero, we don't have a big marketing presence in the markets where you see high heating oil demand. So we don't really see that big uplift from the cold weather that you may see. We definitely get that on the bulk side but not through wholesale.

除此之外，我們也看到柴油也出現了同樣的動態，降雪影響了道路柴油需求。然後我認為，如果你看看瓦萊羅 (Valero)，我們在取暖油需求高的市場上並沒有很大的營銷影響力。因此，我們實際上並沒有看到寒冷天氣帶來的巨大提升。我們肯定會從散裝方面獲得這些，但不是透過批發。

Seven-day average shows diesel sales are up about 1%, and that's kind of what we expect for the year, about a 1% increase in diesel demand in the United States. Most consultants I've read, are showing about a 250,000 barrel a day increase in diesel demand just due to cold weather in the North Atlantic Basin. Not only do we expect diesel demand to be better, but we expect a greater percentage of that to be supplied by refinery derived diesel.

七天平均值顯示柴油銷量上漲約 1%，這與我們對今年的預期一致，美國柴油需求將上漲約 1%。我讀過的大多數諮商師都表示，僅由於北大西洋盆地的寒冷天氣，柴油需求量就將增加約 25 萬桶/天。我們不僅預計柴油需求會更好，而且我們預計其中更大比例的柴油將由煉油廠生產的柴油供應。

Last year, we had the big wave of bio and renewable diesel projects hitting the market, we don't see that same dynamic this year. So I think overall, things are shaping up pretty nicely. We're at total light product inventory, 9 million, 10 million barrels below where we were last year at this time. So inventory is in good place. I think at the beginning of the year, the supply-demand balances look similar to last year. But as you progress through the year, you'll see gradual tightening of supply demand balances.

去年，大量生物和再生柴油項目湧入市場，但今年我們並沒有看到同樣的勢頭。所以我認為整體來說事情進展得相當順利。我們的輕量產品總庫存比去年同期低 900 萬至 1,000 萬桶。因此庫存狀況良好。我認為今年年初的供需平衡與去年相似。但隨著時間的推移，你會看到供需平衡逐漸收緊。

Great. It's very helpful. And then my second question is on capital allocation. You finished the year with another quarter well above your 40% to 50% floor and high 70s for the full year. But assuming we don't have a significant recovery in cracks from here, how should we think about that payout ratio in a lower crack environment in '25. Should we expect you to move closer to that 40% to 50% floor?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於資本配置。您以一個季度的成績結束了這一年，該季度的業績遠高於 40% 到 50% 的底線，全年的業績也達到了 70% 以上。但假設從現在起裂解價錢沒有明顯回升，我們該如何看待25年裂解價錢較低的情況下的派息率。我們是否應該期待您更接近 40% 到 50% 的底線？

Good mornig, John, this is Jason. I'm going to ask Homer to give you a little more detail on that.

早安，約翰，我是傑森。我將請荷馬就此事向您提供更詳細的資訊。

Sure. Yes, John, I mean, you're right, we had a 78% payout for the year, but that was partly funded by our excess cash balance going into the year. But if you want to put this into context with some numbers, if we had held our shareholder payout ratio at 50% for the year, we would have built almost $1.7 billion of cash for the year.

當然。是的，約翰，我的意思是，你是對的，我們今年的支出為 78%，但部分資金來自我們今年的超額現金餘額。但如果你想用一些數字來說明這一點，如果我們今年的股東分紅率維持在 50%，那麼我們今年的現金就會接近 17 億美元。

Even if you excluded the $795 million of positive impact for working capital for the year, and include the $167 million debt repayment we did in the first quarter of 2024, we would have still built over $700 million of cash. Now taking that a bit further, even if you look at the low-margin environment in the fourth quarter, we still would have been able to honor our minimum payout commitment of 40% to 50% without leaning into the balance sheet or drawing down cash.

即使排除該年度 7.95 億美元的營運資本正面影響，並包括我們在 2024 年第一季償還的 1.67 億美元債務，我們仍將累積超過 7 億美元的現金。現在進一步說，即使你看看第四季的低利潤環境，我們仍然能夠履行 40% 至 50% 的最低支出承諾，而無需依賴資產負債表或提取現金。

So hopefully, this gives you some context of the earnings capacity of the portfolio even in a low-margin environment and our ability to invest capital, obviously, honor our shareholder commitment and flexibility with debt in our balance sheet.

因此，希望這能讓您了解即使在低利潤環境下投資組合的盈利能力，以及我們投資資本的能力，顯然，履行我們對股東的承諾和資產負債表中債務的靈活性。

Thank You.

謝謝。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you. Thanks, guys. I think Gary might be the most popular man on the call today, Lane, I apologize, but there was obviously a lot going -- so I've got to try just a couple -- someone's got to do it. I'm going to try a couple of high-level ones, if I may. The headlines I saw just a couple of hours ago, was that Trump is still going to go ahead with tariffs on Canada.

謝謝。謝謝大家。我認為加里可能是今天電話會議上最受歡迎的人，萊恩，我很抱歉，但顯然有很多事情要做 - 所以我只能嘗試幾個 - 總得有人來做這件事。如果可以的話，我將嘗試幾個高級的。幾個小時前我看到的頭條新聞是川普仍將繼續對加拿大徵收關稅。

And we -- I seem to recall that the last time there were problems with heavy oil supply at Canada, there was a -- there was a second order effect that everyone seems to have forgotten about, and I want to run this past through and just get your perspective on it, and that is that -- if you need to find a substitute for that much heavy oil, you're going to have run cuts, you're going to have utilization yield issues for in your system and so on. And I wanted to see if you guys thought there was any sense to that in the context of it actually became a thing as it relates to the substitution of lighter crudes or the heavy grades. What would you guys do?

而且我們——我似乎記得上次加拿大重油供應出現問題時，出現了——似乎每個人都忘記了二階效應，我想回顧一下過去，聽聽你的看法，那就是——如果你需要找到那麼多機油的替代品，你就會面臨產量削減，你的系統的利用率就會下降，等等。我想看看你們是否認為這在實際上成為與輕質原油或重質原油替代有關的背景下有任何意義。你們會怎麼做？

Yes. So Doug, this is Gary. I can tell you, we've been aware of this for a couple of months. And so our commercial teams and optimization teams have been working hard to develop every possible scenario we can think of and how we would respond to that.

是的。道格，這是加里。我可以告訴你，我們幾個月前就已經意識到這件事了。因此，我們的商業團隊和優化團隊一直在努力開發我們能想到的每一種可能的情況以及我們如何應對。

Of course, it's why we like our position on the US Gulf Coast because you can source feedstocks from anywhere around the world and where we also like our feedstock flexibility. But yes, there is a point where if heavy feedstocks become limited, it affects rate and production of clean products, certainly from our assets, and we'd expect industry-wide.

當然，這就是我們喜歡美國墨西哥灣沿岸位置的原因，因為您可以從世界各地採購原料，我們也喜歡我們的原料靈活性。但是，是的，如果重質原料變得有限，它就會影響清潔產品的速度和產量，這肯定會影響我們的資產，而且我們預計整個產業都會受到影響。

Assuming this is transitory, it's not a big deal, but if it did drag on for an extended period of time, particularly as we switch into summer grade I mean, could it be meaningful or is that a rounding out.

假設這是暫時的，那就沒有什麼大問題，但如果它確實拖延了很長一段時間，特別是當我們轉入夏季年級時，我的意思是，它是否有意義，或者這只是一個結束。

You want to, Greg --

你想要，格雷格--

This is Greg. When we think about it and look at some of those different scenarios, you might see a 10% change in throughput. A lot depends on how far it goes and how deep you have to back off on some of those heavy barrels. But it wouldn't be driving things to a much greater degree than that, I don't think.

這是格雷格。當我們思考並觀察一些不同的場景時，您可能會看到吞吐量發生了 10% 的變化。很大程度上取決於它能走多遠，以及你必須在多深的範圍內撤退那些沉重的桶子。但我不認為它對事態發展產生更大影響。

Okay. I want to start meaningfully enough when you were talking about sit. So we're searching for green shoots as really to tell what these questions are about. So I apologize, I'm going to try another high level one, and it really relates to your throughput guidance.

好的。當你談論坐時，我想開始得足夠有意義。因此，我們正在尋找新的線索，以真正解答這些問題。所以我很抱歉，我將嘗試另一個高級別的，它確實與您的吞吐量指導有關。

So obviously, everyone is focused on whether it's Tasos or Lyondell closing or Grangemouth or whatever happens to be. But it seems to me that coming out of COVID, utilization rates, the concentration or the absence of good maintenance got solved and the concentration of great maintenance meant everybody ran well.

因此顯然，每個人都在關注 Tasos 或 Lyondell 的收盤情況，或者 Grangemouth 的收盤情況，或者其他任何情況。但在我看來，在疫情過後，利用率、集中度或缺乏良好維護的問題得到了解決，而良好維護的集中度意味著每個人都運作良好。

And it seems to us with no storms and all the things you run through, Gary. They're probably about 3% or 4% of utilization that was kind of a best-in-class world for the US last year, which is basically four refineries, if you think about it. And so when I look at your guidance for the quarter, you obviously don't give forward cadence for commercial reasons through the rest of the year. But at a high level, how do you see the likelihood that the industry, the US industry specifically can continue to run at those kind of levels given the backdrop we've had and the fact that we're down 10% in the last three within utilization.

在我們看來，這並沒有風暴和你所經歷的一切，加里。如果你仔細想想，去年美國的利用率大概是 3% 或 4%，這在美國是世界領先水平，基本上相當於四家煉油廠。因此，當我查看您本季的業績指引時，我明顯發現您不會因為商業原因而提前公佈今年剩餘時間的業績。但從高層次來看，考慮到我們所處的背景以及過去三年利用率下降了 10% 的事實，您如何看待該行業，特別是美國行業繼續保持這種水平運行的可能性。

Yes. So I think certainly, what you've seen utilization in the last few weeks is somewhat weather-related along with the maintenance activity. I think given the advantages that US refineries enjoy on feedstock cost and energy cost, you should expect to see that US refining continues to run at higher utilization rates. And when you have run cuts, they occur elsewhere in the world where they don't have the natural resource advantages that we have.

是的。因此我認為，過去幾週您所看到的利用率肯定與天氣以及維護活動有關。我認為，考慮到美國煉油廠在原料成本和能源成本方面享有的優勢，你應該會看到美國煉油廠繼續以更高的利用率運作。當出現減產時，這些減產發生在世界其他地方，而那裡並不具備我們所擁有的自然資源優勢。

I think I was thinking more about the reliability aspect as opposed to the cost advantage aspect.

我認為我更多地考慮的是可靠性方面，而不是成本優勢方面。

Yes. And I'm sure we've certainly seen an improvement in our system on mechanical availability, and I suspect our peers have as well, and it's something we always strive to get better and better at.

是的。我確信我們的機械可用性系統確實得到了改善，我想我們的同行也同樣如此，而這也是我們一直努力做得越來越好的事情。

All right, guys. Sorry for the high level questions, but I've had my two, so I'll leave it there. Thank you so much.

好吧，夥計們。抱歉問了這麼多高級問題，但我已經有兩個問題了，所以我就不多說了。太感謝了。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾梅塔 (Neil Mehta)。

Yes. Good morning, team. Just a couple of questions on the quarter itself. Renewable diesel performance came in, I think, better than what most market participants were expecting and better than implied by the indicators. Just curious on any thoughts there and the outlook for that business as we work our way through 2025.

是的。早安，各位同事。我只想問幾個關於本季本身的問題。我認為，再生柴油的表現優於大多數市場參與者的預期，也優於指標所暗示的。只是好奇那裡有什麼想法以及我們在 2025 年之前對該業務的前景。

Yes, this is Eric. I think a lot -- there was a onetime benefit with some inventory optimization at the end of the year, that was the bulk of that higher-than-expected performance. There is a little bit of staff in that, but I would make it clear that, that was mostly some inventory optimization we did at the end of the year.

是的，這是埃里克。我認為很多——年底的一些庫存優化帶來了一次性收益，這是業績高於預期的主要原因。其中有一點工作人員，但我要明確一點，這主要是我們在年底進行的一些庫存優化。

In terms of forward-looking in renewable diesel and SAP for us, we're all kind of waiting to see how this market is going to develop and how the policy is going to develop. But overall, things are very much staying in line with kind of what we thought was going to happen.

就我們對再生柴油和 SAP 的前瞻性而言，我們都在等待觀察這個市場將如何發展以及政策將如何發展。但整體而言，事情的發展與我們預期的非常一致。

The (inaudible) has now replaced the blenders tax credit. We can see that, that's now going to limit product imports into the US. It is going to make it a carbon intensity scale rather than a flat dollar to every renewable product.

(聽不清楚)現在已經取代了攪拌機的稅收抵免。我們可以看到，這將限制美國的產品進口。它將制定一個碳強度等級，而不是對每種可再生產品都徵收固定的一美元。

All of that is advantageous to Diamond Green Diesel in our platform because like the refining platform, our feedstock flexibility, our ability to export to any of the other markets and I think consistent with our outlook from last year, the most attractive markets are going to be in Europe and Canada compared to US and California.

所有這些對於 Diamond Green Diesel 在我們的平台上都是有利的，因為就像煉油平台、我們的原料靈活性、我們向任何其他市場出口的能力一樣，我認為與我們去年的展望一致，與美國和加州相比，最具吸引力的市場將是歐洲和加拿大。

So overall, we're waiting to see how RINs are going to respond, how LCFS is going to respond. And I think you'll see those changes emerging in the market in the next couple of months as some of those production and credit reports emerge on how the year ended.

所以總的來說，我們正在等待觀察 RIN 和 LCFS 會如何反應。我認為，隨著一些有關去年年末的生產和信用報告的出現，您將在未來幾個月看到市場上出現這些變化。

Gary already mentioned that we don't see any increase in renewable production this year. We -- it's still long compared to, say, (inaudible) RIN credit bank or D4 RIN credit banks and LCFS credit banks. But we do also expect you're going to see some correction and production that will eventually start to pull those credit banks down throughout the year.

加里已經提到，今年再生能源產量不會有任何增加。我們 — — 與 (聽不清楚) RIN 學分銀行或 D4 RIN 學分銀行和 LCFS 學分銀行相比，它仍然很長。但我們也預計，你將會看到一些調整和生產，最終將在全年開始拉低這些信貸銀行的水平。

That's helpful. And then independent of tariffs, it was notable in the amount of heavy that you were able to run through the system. And I think there were some concerns about coking economics in the quarter, given how tight fuel oil was, but clearly, you were able to optimize the system to run over 600,000 barrels a day of heavy sour oil. So can you just talk about how you were able to do that in the commercial approach to maximize and heavy in a time when fuel oil is pretty tight.

這很有幫助。然後，除了關稅之外，值得注意的是，你能夠通過這個系統運作的重量。我認為，考慮到燃料油的緊張程度，人們對本季焦化經濟性有一些擔憂，但顯然，您能夠優化系統，每天運行超過 600,000 桶重質酸性油。那麼，您能否談談在燃油相當緊張的情況下，如何透過商業方式實現產量最大化和重量級提升？

Neil, this is Greg. I'll start, and then Gary can talk some more about the market. But you hit on, I think, the key factor, which is as the fuel oil prices, those differentials narrowed that with fuel oil typically being a feedstock in our Gulf Coast system, we pivoted away from that towards the heavy crude as an alternative, which continued to show some good value.

尼爾，這是格雷格。我先開始，然後 Gary 可以再談一些市場狀況。但我認為，你觸及了關鍵因素，那就是隨著燃料油價格的上漲，這些差異縮小了，由於燃料油通常是我們墨西哥灣沿岸系統的原料，我們轉向使用重質原油作為替代品，而重質原油繼續顯示出良好的價值。

So that's why you see that shift towards more heavy sour crude, you also noticed a reduction on the heavy resid feedstocks that we processed as well. And that's kind of how we got to the high level of heavy crude processing. Also keep in mind, we've got the Port Arthur Coker online that shifts us to a bit of a heavier feed slate as well. So that's part of what you see in that number as well.

所以這就是為什麼你會看到轉向更多重質酸性原油，你也會注意到我們加工的重質渣油原料的減少。這就是我們如何達到高水準的重質原油加工。還要記住，我們已在線上安裝了 Port Arthur Coker，這也會讓我們的進料量稍微增加一些。這也是您在該數字中看到的一部分。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. On the tariff topic specifically, understanding that you're not captive to any specific source of crude based on your footprint and the optionality you have on the Gulf Coast. But as we think about the tariff on Canada and Mexico, incremental sanctions potentially on Venezuela, how are you thinking about life heavy differentials as we move through the year?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。具體到關稅問題，要明白根據你的足跡和你在墨西哥灣沿岸的選擇權，你不受任何特定原油來源的束縛。但是，當我們考慮對加拿大和墨西哥徵收關稅，以及可能對委內瑞拉實施的漸進式製裁時，您如何看待今年以來出現的嚴重差異？

Yes, Theresa, this is Gary. I think I'll start with kind of fundamentals, but then cut to really what's driving the market. And certainly, on the fundamental side, typically, this time of the year, you see less buying of medium and heavy sours just due to turnaround activity. In addition to that, Lyondell coming down puts another 200,000 barrels a day heavy on the market calls for OPEC crude second quarter 2025, 180,000 barrels a day of medium solar crude.

是的，特蕾莎，這是加里。我想我會先從基本面開始，然後再談真正推動市場的因素。當然，從基本面來看，通常，在每年的這個時候，由於週轉活動，你會看到中酸和重酸的購買量減少。此外，利安德爾也表示，到 2025 年第二季度，市場對 OPEC 原油的需求將再增加 20 萬桶/日，即每天 18 萬桶中質原油。

So all those things would be supportive of water quality differentials. But in reality, the discussions on sanctions and tariffs are really what's driving the market. And until we see some resolution to that, I don't expect any meaningful moves in the quality differentials.

因此，所有這些因素都會支持水質的差異。但實際上，有關制裁和關稅的討論才是推動市場走勢的真正因素。除非我們看到解決方案，否則我預計品質差異不會出現任何有意義的變化。

Understood. And related to the St. Charles FCC project, would you have been able to provide a little bit more color on this, what the optimization means in terms of incremental improvement in the yield of high-value products?

明白了。關於聖查爾斯 FCC 項目，您能否提供更多詳細信息，優化對於逐步提高高價值產品產量意味著什麼？

Sure, Theresa. This is Greg. Lane mentioned it costs about $230 million. It definitely meets our investment hurdle at mid-cycle pricing. And one of the key outcomes for the project is increasing the production of light olefin product out of the FCC. And what that really means is that's additional feedstock we can use to fill the alkylation capacity we have downstream of the FCC there.

當然，特蕾莎。這是格雷格。Lane 提到其成本約 2.3 億美元。它絕對滿足了我們在中期定價時的投資障礙。此計畫的主要成果之一是提高催化裂解裝置的輕質烯烴產品產量。這實際上意味著我們可以使用額外的原料來填補 FCC 下游的烷基化產能。

And you might remember, we started up a C5 alkylation unit at St. Charles back in late 2020. And with some tweaks and optimizations we've done to that unit since. We've got some spare capacity in the alky and with this project, you will increase high octane outlet production by something on the order of 6,000 barrels to 7,000 barrels a day. That's one of the key outcomes and things that drive the value.

您可能還記得，我們​​在 2020 年底在聖查爾斯啟動了一個 C5 烷基化裝置。從那時起，我們對該部門進行了一些調整和優化。我們的烷基石油有一定的閒置產能，透過這個項目，高辛烷值石油的日產量可以提高 6,000 桶到 7,000 桶左右。這是推動價值的關鍵成果和因素之一。

It's really a good example of -- I did find some key equipment constraints within the operation that when we modified those constraints of that equipment it allows us to take full advantage of the capability not only of the SEC unit in this case, but other equipment and other units in the refinery. And again, in this case, the alky. And that's how we generate a good return from the project.

這確實是一個很好的例子——我確實發現了操作中的一些關鍵設備限制，當我們修改這些設備的限制時，它使我們不僅可以充分利用本例中的 SEC 單元的功能，還可以充分利用煉油廠中其他設備和單元的功能。再一次，在這種情況下，是醇。這就是我們如何從專案中獲得豐厚的回報。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Good morning. I wanted some additional color on the North Atlantic capture. It looks like it jumped from 102% last quarter to about 118%. And similarly, the Gulf Coast capture jumped from about 76% to 86%. So Gary, if you could help us out a little what were some of the factors helping you drive that kind of capture improvement?

早安.我想要一些有關北大西洋捕獲的更多細節。看起來它從上個季度的 102% 躍升至約 118%。同樣，墨西哥灣沿岸的捕獲率也從約 76% 躍升至 86%。那麼 Gary，如果您能幫我們一點忙的話，有哪些因素可以幫助您推動這種捕獲改進？

Sure. I'll let Greg answer.

當然。我請格雷格來回答。

Hey, Manav. A couple of things I'd point out on the North Atlantic really, it's a bit of a system question. So it's North Atlantic and Gulf Coast as well. But we go into the winter time and we start blending more butane into the high RVP gasoline. That gives us a bit of a bump in capture as that adds value into the gasoline pool. In both those regions as well, you had good contributions from the wholesale side of the business, the commercial part. So we saw some benefit from that.

嘿，Manav。關於北大西洋，我想指出幾點，這實際上是一個系統問題。所以它也是北大西洋和墨西哥灣沿岸。但進入冬季後，我們開始將更多的丁烷混合到高 RVP 汽油中。這為我們的捕獲量帶來了一些提升，因為這增加了汽油池的價值。在這兩個地區，你們的業務批發方面，商業部分都做出了良好的貢獻。因此我們從中看到了一些好處。

On the Gulf Coast, the other notable item would really be -- if you look at Maya relative to the Canadian grades that we use for the benchmark, Maya was a bit more discounted certainly when you look at it quarter-over-quarter. And so that helped to improve the crude cost that we saw for the heavy crude into the Gulf Coast.

在墨西哥灣沿岸，另一個值得注意的事情是——如果你將瑪雅與我們用作基準的加拿大等級進行比較，你會發現，與上一季相比，瑪雅的折扣確實更大一些。這有助於降低墨西哥灣沿岸重質原油的運輸成本。

Quick follow-up here is, we are seeing a very strong diesel margin and slightly weaker gasoline and I know Valero can move the yield around a lot. So are you already operating in max diesel mode or how much more can you swing the yield more towards diesel? Or do you think this is very temporary, like once you come February and March, the gasoline demand will improve and the cracks will start to balance out each other.

快速的後續情況是，我們看到柴油利潤率非常高，而汽油利潤率略低，我知道 Valero 可以大幅調整收益率。那麼，您是否已經以最大柴油模式運行，或者您還可以將產量轉向多少柴油？或者您認為這只是暫時的，例如一旦到了二月和三月，汽油需求就會改善，裂縫就會開始相互平衡。

Manav, this is Greg. Yes, we are definitely in max diesel mode. As you mentioned, the cracks would drive us in that direction. And we'll see as we get into gasoline season, whether the gas crack shifts enough to push us the other way.

Manav，就是 Greg。是的，我們確實處於最大柴油模式。正如你所提到的，裂縫會推動我們朝那個方向發展。隨著汽油季節的到來，我們將看到天然氣裂解情況是否會發生足夠的變化，推動我們朝著另一個方向發展。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Paul Sankey, Sankey Research.

保羅‧桑基 (Paul Sankey)，桑基研究公司。

Hi, everyone. Just continuing on the themes that we've had this morning. Can you talk a bit about the Atlantic Basin at all the trade arbitrages? And I think it's obviously tough to make a firm outlook here with all that's moving around. But I wondered, what have you been seeing, let's say, over the past two months to six months in terms of the major Nigerian refinery.

大家好。繼續我們今天上午討論的主題。您能談談大西洋盆地的所有貿易套利狀況嗎？我認為，考慮到目前發生的所有變化，顯然很難做出堅定的看法。但我想知道，就過去兩個月到六個月而言，您對尼日利亞主要煉油廠的情況有何看法。

There's been a lot of action in the dollar versus the euro. There's obviously been all the cold weather effects. So I just wondered if you could describe a little bit what we've been seeing in the market in the Atlantic Basin and what your outlook is for the coming year. Thanks a lot. Tough question.

美元兌歐元的匯率波動很大。顯然，寒冷天氣已經產生了影響。所以我想知道您是否可以稍微描述一下我們在大西洋盆地市場看到的情況以及您對來年的展望。多謝。這是一個難題。

Yes. So I'll start with the Dangote refinery. I think from what we can see and what we read, they do have their resid FCC up and running. We see that commercially. They're not offering out the fuel oil or the resid that we were buying from them. We also see less imports of gasoline into West Africa, which is all consistent with Dangote continuing to ramp up.

是的。我先從丹格特煉油廠開始說起。我認為，從我們看到的和讀到的內容來看，他們的殘餘 FCC 確實已啟動並運行。我們從商業角度看到了這一點。他們沒有提供我們從他們那裡購買的燃料油或渣油。我們也發現西非的汽油進口量減少，這與丹格特持續加大產能一致。

With that, though, however, what we've seen is that generally tends to impact Europe more than it does in the US gasoline that was going to West Africa gets back into Europe. We haven't really seen much of an impact from that.

然而，我們看到的是，這通常對歐洲的影響比對美國的影響更大，因為運往西非的汽油又回到了歐洲。我們實際上還沒有看到太大的影響。

Our gasoline go to -- our gasoline exports primarily go to Latin America. You can see in the fourth quarter, we were 98,000 barrels a day of gasoline exports into that market, which is consistent with where we've been. I can tell you in the first quarter, that's we're right about that same level again. Diesel has been somewhat interesting.

我們的汽油主要出口到拉丁美洲。您可以看到，在第四季度，我們每天向該市場出口 98,000 桶汽油，這與我們一直以來的情況一致。我可以告訴你，在第一季度，我們再次達到了同樣的水平。柴油有點有趣。

The cold weather in the US kind of has the US market strong. So you actually see a few cargoes from Europe actually booked in the New York Harbor, which is an abnormal trade flow. We do see that correcting when you get to the second half of February. We're already seeing an open arb to export back from the US to Europe.

美國的寒冷天氣在一定程度上刺激了美國市場的發展。因此，你實際上會看到一些來自歐洲的貨物實際上是在紐約港預訂的，這是一種不正常的貿易流動。當進入二月下半月時，我們確實看到這種情況正在得到糾正。我們已經看到了從美國向歐洲出口的開放套利。

So nothing too abnormal on trade flows. I think by and large, what you've seen is that -- the Dangote startup in the North Atlantic Basin has been largely offset with Lyondell coming down and Grangemouth coming down, and they're kind of counterbalancing each other and keeping trade flows about what we've seen historically.

因此貿易流動沒有什麼異常。我認為，總的來說，您所看到的是——北大西洋盆地的丹格特的啟動在很大程度上被利安德爾和格蘭傑茅斯的停產所抵消，它們相互制衡，使貿易流量保持在我們歷史上所見的水平。

That's great. Thanks very much. And just if I could follow up, thinking about the reality of tariffs, could you describe maybe a situation of how they would work? I mean what happens? Do you just suddenly have to start paying it overnight? Or how does it work if you got any ideas that would be grateful. Thanks.

那太棒了。非常感謝。如果我可以跟進的話，考慮到關稅的現實情況，您能否描述一下它們將如何運作的情況？我的意思是會發生什麼事？您是否突然需要在一夜之間開始付款？或者它是如何工作的，如果您有任何想法，將不勝感激。謝謝。

Without having really any clarity on what's going to happen, there's no reason for us, there are no way we can really speculate on how we deal with it. We're just going to have to deal with it when it comes up.

如果不清楚到底會發生什麼，我們就沒有任何理由，也無法真正推測該如何應對。當它出現時我們必須處理它。

Paul, it's Lane. All I add is it depends on the market, right? If you're a captive market, they're going to -- it will somehow get shared between the refinery and the (inaudible), say, the Canadian crude producer because there's some captive markets in the Mid-Continent. In the Gulf Coast, somehow that will ultimately get sort of priced in depending on what -- how that refinery is configured and what their alternatives are. And then we'll just have to see how long it lasts.

保羅，我是萊恩。我要補充的是，這取決於市場，對嗎？如果你是壟斷市場，他們將會——它會以某種方式在煉油廠和（聽不清楚）之間分享，例如加拿大原油生產商，因為中部大陸有一些壟斷市場。在墨西哥灣沿岸，這最終將根據煉油廠的配置方式和替代方案來確定價格。然後我們只需要看看它能持續多久。

Got it. Have there been examples of it happening in the past that you can think of where you suddenly have to pay 25% more for a given crude.

知道了。您能想到過去發生過類似的事情嗎？

No. And I've been around a long time.

不。我已經在這裡很久了。

Got you. I'll take that later.

明白了。我稍後會處理。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

All right. Lane, I'm still chuckling from. You've been around a long time answer there. Maybe coming back a little bit on the whole changing in capacity. So obviously, you mentioned the shutdown of Grangemouth. We had to shut down here locally of Lyondell and we have some more stuff likely coming in Europe beyond what's been announced. I'm just curious how you all are seeing some of those dynamics play out in terms of just crude availability, let's leave the tariff thing aside and maybe how that's playing out along the Gulf Coast.

好的。萊恩，我仍然咯咯笑。您已經在這裡回答很久了。或許在整體能力變化上會有所回升。很明顯，你提到了格蘭傑茅斯的關閉。我們不得不關閉利安德爾當地的工廠，除了已經宣布的產品之外，我們可能還會向歐洲運送更多產品。我只是好奇你們是如何看待這些動態在原油供應方面發揮作用的，我們先把關稅問題放在一邊，也許我們只看一下墨西哥灣沿岸的情況。

Yes. So I think the only thing we can see is you've definitely seen the dynamic in the market of Lyondell stopping to buy and they were buying a lot of -- especially a lot of Canadian. And so we've seen more of those barrels become available to us as they backed off the market.

是的。因此，我認為我們唯一能看到的是，你肯定看到了利安德爾停止購買的市場動態，他們購買了很多——尤其是許多加拿大產品。因此，隨著市場原油供應減少，我們可以獲得更多的原油。

Does that materially change price or is it just an availability.

這是否會實質地改變價格，還是只是可用性問題。

It's so difficult to tell because it's been going along at the same time with all these tariffs and sanctions discussions. So it's kind of -- those discussions have muted any market impact. There would be of Lyondell pushing the barrels back so far.

這很難說，因為它與所有這些關稅和製裁討論同時進行。所以，這些討論在某種程度上減弱了對市場的影響。萊昂德爾將把桶子推得更遠。

Okay. And then as a follow-up question from earlier about -- I think Doug was asking about the industry's ability to maintain utilization as you look forward through the year thinking about some of these closures that have happened.

好的。然後作為之前的後續問題——我認為道格問的是該行業維持利用率的能力，因為展望今年，您會想到一些已經發生的關閉事件。

And if you look at on a year-over-year change of US inventories, whether you look at crude alone or crude plus products or just products all are down year-over-year, a little more severe on the crude side than on the product side, but it would imply a lot of tightness. And if you can't say if you can, if the industry cannot maintain these levels of utilization, it would imply either much lower inventories or lower exports, but -- is there anything I'm missing in that general thought process?

如果你看美國庫存的同比變化，無論你單獨看原油，還是原油加產品，或者只是產品，都是同比下降，原油方面比產品方面下降更嚴重一些，但這意味著很多緊張。如果您不能說如果可以，如果行業不能維持這些利用率水平，那就意味著庫存會大幅下降或出口會下降，但是——我在這個總體思維過程中是否遺漏了什麼？

No, I think you've got it. Nail on the head. When we look at the balances, the inherent assumption that you're going to see similar supply-demand balances the last year and gradually tightening is the fact that the industry had a high actual utilization is going to go up to meet demand. And so that certainly, we haven't had a major weather event the last year.

不，我想你已經明白了。釘子釘在頭上。當我們觀察平衡時，內在的假設是，你會看到去年供需平衡類似且逐漸收緊，因為該行業的實際利用率很高，將會上升以滿足需求。所以可以肯定，去年我們沒有遭遇過重大氣象事件。

Any kind of a major weather event and not capacity off-line or unreliability then can tighten things up a lot. If you look, we're especially on the diesel side, we're within 10% on inventory where we were in 2023 and in 2023, we had a $45 diesel crack versus where it is today. I mean the inventory position is not significantly different, yet the margin environment is fairly significantly different. It could change in a hurry.

任何類型的重大天氣事件以及產能離線或不可靠性都可能使情況變得非常緊張。如果你看一下，特別是在柴油方面，我們的庫存量與 2023 年相比在 10% 以內，而 2023 年的柴油裂解價為 45 美元，而今天則為 45 美元。我的意思是庫存狀況沒有顯著差異，但利潤環境卻有相當大的差異。它可能很快就會改變。

Appreciate that. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks. Maybe a couple of follow-ups on the biofuel side. I mean you talked some about your -- like the broader 2025 outlook with all the moving pieces there. As we think about the early part of this year in the first quarter in particular, BTC goes away December 31.

謝謝。或許在生物燃料方面還有一些後續行動。我的意思是，您談到了一些——例如更廣泛的 2025 年展望以及其中的所有活動因素。當我們回顧今年年初，特別是第一季時，BTC 將於 12 月 31 日消失。

It feels like it's going to take some time, at least a few months for the market to kind of methane equilibrium with the 45V and some of the impacts on imports and domestic production. What's the -- is there a risk to -- like first -- how does this play out in the first quarter? Is there a risk that economics kind of fall off the table in the first quarter. Is this stuff gets sorted before it reaches kind of a better equilibrium later in the year? .

感覺市場需要一些時間，至少需要幾個月的時間才能與 45V 達到甲烷平衡，並對進口和國內生產產生一些影響。首先，這在第一季會如何發展？第一季經濟是否有下滑的風險？在今年稍後達到更好的平衡之前，這些問題能得到解決嗎？。

Yes. I think if you look at the conversion of the BTC where everyone got a dollar to now this carbon intensity based credit. We've run the US Greek model that was just released. For veg oils, it's 0 for (inaudible) oil, it's $0.16 for soybean oil.

是的。我認為，如果你看一下 BTC 的轉換，每個人都會得到一美元，現在這是基於碳強度的信用額度。我們運行了剛發布的美國希臘模型。對於植物油，（聽不清楚）油的價格為 0 美元，大豆油的價格為 0.16 美元。

And waste oils are in the $0.50 to $0.60 per gallon range. And so at the end of the day, that is all less than $1. So if you needed that dollar to break even and now you're getting $0.16 it's a fairly negative margin environment for non-waste oils.

廢油價格在每加侖0.50美元至0.60美元之間。所以最終這些費用還不到 1 美元。因此，如果您需要這美元來實現收支平衡，而現在您只得到了 0.16 美元，那麼對於非廢油來說，這是一個相當負面的利潤環境。

I think everyone can see that. I think there's growing recognition that this is going to be very difficult to see a lot of the biodiesel side and vegoil side. operate at these lower incentives. How that plays out in terms of production reconciliation through the first quarter. Everyone is looking to say, well, but hand in hand. We also see the imports that were coming to the US to get that dollar are now stopped.

我想每個人都能看到這一點。我認為人們越來越認識到，生物柴油和植物油的大量出現將會十分困難。在這些較低的激勵下運作。這對第一季的生產協調有何影響？每個人都想說，好吧，但要攜手並進。我們也看到，那些為了取得美元而進入美國的進口商品現在已經停止了。

So how all that balances out? We haven't seen a lot of change in peak stock prices to reflect a lot of this, but I think there's growing recognition that there's going to be some movement in overall production and overall feedstock prices kind of as you go through the first quarter and see some of these early reports coming in on what are we seeing in terms of generation of credits.

那麼，這一切該如何平衡呢？我們還沒有看到峰值股價發生很大的變化來反映這一點，但我認為，人們越來越認識到，隨著第一季的到來以及一些有關信貸生成情況的早期報告的出爐，總體產量和總體原料價格將會發生一些變動。

And so again, I think being a waste oil unit on the Gulf Coast, we're the most advantage in terms of how we can react to these things and it's still mostly favors, waste oils, which is our platform is based on. So I think we're still in a good position versus our competitors, it's just -- but there's no doubt, overall, there is a lower incentive for all of this in this PTC world.

因此，我認為，作為墨西哥灣沿岸的廢油處理單位，我們在應對這些事情方面最有優勢，而且我們的主要業務仍然是處理廢油，這是我們的平台所基於的。所以我認為與我們的競爭對手相比我們仍然處於有利地位，只是——但毫無疑問，總體而言，在 PTC 的世界裡，所有這一切的激勵都較低。

And then maybe a follow-up on SaaS. I mean can you maybe just provide a little bit of an update in terms of your SaaS operations at this point level maybe some idea level of production and how you think about the contribution of (inaudible) economics here in 2025.

然後可能會跟進 SaaS。我的意思是，您能否就目前的 SaaS 營運情況提供一些更新，也許是一些生產層面的想法，以及您如何看待 2025 年（聽不清楚）經濟的貢獻。

Yes. So Lane mentioned this in his opening comments. The project started up in the fourth quarter, again, credit to our project team on finishing ahead of schedule another budget. We have flawless startup. It started up on spec. We hear a lot of -- we spent most of the time in the fourth quarter doing test runs and initial fills on tanks. But throughout all our test run trials, we showed a very wide range of operability, all of which more than met our project goals operationally.

是的。因此 Lane 在開場白中提到了這一點。該專案於第四季度啟動，再次要感謝我們的專案團隊提前完成了另一項預算。我們的啟動完美無缺。它按規格啟動了。我們聽到很多消息——我們在第四季度的大部分時間都花在了進行試運行和油箱的初步填充上。但在我們所有的試運行試驗中，我們展示了非常廣泛的可操作性，所有這些都超出了我們專案的操作目標。

So unit hardware looks great. Production has been very smooth, and we made our first sales in November, and we saw the QA/QC and all the traceability and accreditation flow all the way from production to meet staff, the blended staff to deliver the final customer.

所以單元硬體看起來很棒。生產進展非常順利，我們在 11 月完成了首次銷售，我們看到了 QA/QC 以及從生產到員工見面、混合員工到交付最終客戶的所有可追溯性和認證流程。

And so we spent a lot of time in the fourth quarter just sort of proving the system out. In terms of going forward, we're not going to really get into a lot of detail because what I'd say is what we have now is very good flexibility to meet all the project economic goals and that we set up with the original project. But if you look at, say, the Argus market in the EU and the UK, right now, you see HBO at or better than SaaS.

因此我們在第四季花了很多時間來驗證這個系統。就未來發展而言，我們不會真正深入討論太多細節，因為我想說的是，我們現在擁有非常好的靈活性，可以實現所有項目的經濟目標，並且這是我們在原始項目中設定的。但如果你看看歐盟和英國的 Argus 市場，你會發現現在 HBO 的表現與 SaaS 相當甚至更好。

So we have flexibility to make either barrel into the European market. And so really, what we're doing now is just tuning that optimization as we see SAP customers really starting up in the first quarter because of the 2% mandate that you see in the EU and UK.

因此我們可以靈活地將任何一桶產品推向歐洲市場。所以實際上，我們現在所做的只是調整最佳化，因為我們看到 SAP 客戶在第一季真正開始實施這項計劃，因為歐盟和英國實施了 2% 的強制規定。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Hey, guys. Good morning.

嘿，大家好。早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Maybe this is -- I want to go back to Eric. The PTC, I don't think that the detail is out. So when you guys report the first quarter, should we just assume that in your gross margin, the BTC is also that you will drop by a per gallon, but you're not going to record any benefit or do you put some kind of provisional and think that it will just come through. And also whether that you can share how much is the fourth quarter inventory benefit or optimization benefit that you are referring to earlier? That's the first question.

也許這是——我想回到艾瑞克身邊。PTC，我認為細節尚未公佈。因此，當你們報告第一季時，我們是否應該假設你們的毛利率中，BTC 也會每加侖下降，但你們不會記錄任何收益，或者你們是否提出某種臨時假設並認為它會實現。另外您能否分享一下您之前提到的第四季庫存收益或優化收益是多少？這是第一個問題。

The second question, maybe for Lane. US natural gas price look like is going to be higher. So if we look at your system, do you see a lot of opportunity of reducing your energy cost further or that you have already done so much is really difficult that will be too expensive (inaudible) trying to have any meaningful reduction in the energy cost from the current level?

第二個問題也許是針對 Lane 的。美國天然氣價格看起來會更高。所以如果我們看看你的系統，你是否看到很多機會進一步降低你的能源成本，或者你已經做了很多事情，這真的很困難，試圖從目前的水平上有意義地降低能源成本會太昂貴（聽不清楚）？

Okay. So I'll start on the margin indicator. We had the same discussion that our margin indicator still includes the dollar BTC in the calculation. One of the challenges in this PTC environment is because its carbon intensity based, that will vary with our feedstock slate.

好的。因此，我將從保證金指標開始。我們進行了同樣的討論，我們的保證金指標仍然在計算中包含美元BTC。PTC 環境中的挑戰之一在於其碳強度，它會隨著我們的原料結構而改變。

And so we haven't had enough run time or as you said, enough clarity to really know how this is all going to line out because we can think of scenarios where certain feedstocks get very cheap that might have a higher CI or we'll see -- continue to see the incentive to run the lowest CI feedstocks and those will obviously have higher benefits in the PTC.

因此，我們還沒有足夠的運行時間，或者如您所說，沒有足夠的清晰度來真正了解這一切將如何展開，因為我們可以想到某些原料變得非常便宜的情形，這些原料可能會具有更高的 CI，或者我們會看到 - 繼續看到運行最低 CI 原料的動機，而這些原料顯然會在 PTC 中帶來更高的好處。

So it's a little hard to nail down the the -- how we want to adjust the margin indicator. So our decision -- we're going to keep it the same for now until we see a little more development on how we're going to be running in this new policy environment. .

因此，要確定我們如何調整利潤指標有點困難。因此，我們的決定是──暫時維持現狀，直到我們看到在新的政策環境下如何運作有了更多的進展。。

Eric, I'm sorry, I'm not asking about the margin indicator. I'm asking that when you report the first quarter result, in your result, should we just assume that you will take out the $1 per gallon for the BTC in your margin and not including any benefit from the PTC because that's not being finalized or that when you report the results in the first quarter, you actually will do some provisional estimate on what your DGD results should be under the PTC as you understand.

艾瑞克，很抱歉，我問的不是保證金指標。我問的是，當您報告第一季的結果時，在您的結果中，我們是否應該只是假設您將從您的利潤中拿出每加侖 1 美元的 BTC，而不包括來自 PTC 的任何收益，因為這還沒有最終確定，或者當您報告第一季度的結果時，您實際上會對 PTC 下的 DGD 結果應該是什麼做一些臨時估計。

Paul, this is Lane. The way we do our financials is, particularly on that side, it's really on the act. We don't have -- there won't be a provisional like, hey, we think the PTC benefit is going to ultimately be this. If it's not -- if we don't have clear policy in the first quarter, it will be whatever it is.

保羅，這是萊恩。我們處理財務的方式，特別是財務方面的方式，實際上是行動上的。我們沒有 - 不會有臨時的，例如，嘿，我們認為 PTC 的好處最終將是這樣的。如果不是——如果我們在第一季沒有明確的政策，那就這樣吧。

Okay. So we will just take out the BTC benefit but not including any estimate for the PTC for guys.

好的。因此，我們只會取出 BTC 收益，但不包括對 PTC 的任何估計。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And how about in terms of -- Eric can you share what is the inventory benefit in the fourth quarter?

好的。那麼，艾瑞克，您能分享一下第四季度的庫存收益嗎？

Yes, I don't think we're going to give that level of detail out. but it was just an end of year optimization that we did at both units for the fourth quarter.

是的，我認為我們不會透露那麼多細節。但這只是我們在兩個部門針對第四季進行的年底優化。

All right. So how about about the energy cost?

好的。那麼能源成本如何？

I'm going to at least initially pitch this over to Greg. So go ahead, Greg.

我至少會先將這一點向 Greg 介紹一下。那麼繼續吧，格雷格。

Hey, Paul. So with low energy costs, and a lot of that meaning low natural gas and low cost for power for our plants in North America. You don't see a lot of incentive to try to do a project to further reduce your energy consumption. There's just not a lot of opportunity there from a value standpoint. We do see opportunities in Penbrook. We've done some things at the refinery there to improve energy efficiency because their costs are quite a bit higher.

嘿，保羅。因此，能源成本低，這在很大程度上意味著我們北美工廠的天然氣使用量低、電力成本低。你看不到太多的動力去嘗試做一個專案來進一步降低你的能源消耗。從價值角度來看，那裡並沒有太多的機會。我們確實在 Penbrook 看到了機會。我們在那裡的煉油廠採取了一些措施來提高能源效率，因為它們的成本相當高。

So I would say, in general, that's unless you see a marked change in the cost of natural gas or power it's going to be hard to justify some kind of an improvement project. Always trying to be as efficient as we can be in the base operations. So there's no change there. But in terms of some kind of investment to make a step change, that's hard to do in the current environment.

所以我想說，一般來說，除非你看到天然氣或電力成本有明顯變化，否則很難證明某種改進項目的合理性。我們始終努力使基礎營運盡可能有效率。因此那裡沒有變化。但在當前環境下，透過某種投資來實現重大改變是很難的。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Joe Laetsch。

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to ask a couple on the quarter. From our standpoint, it looked like the Mid-Con came in stronger on throughput and capture while the West Coast was say, remained a bit weaker, which I think was driven in part by maintenance. Could you just talk to any specific drivers during the quarter for the (inaudible) West Coast, in particular from a capture and throughput standpoint?

偉大的。謝謝。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。只是想問一下這個季度的一些問題。從我們的角度來看，中部地區在吞吐量和捕獲量方面似乎表現更強，而西海岸則稍微弱一些，我認為這在一定程度上是由於維護造成的。您能否談談本季西海岸（聽不清楚）的任何具體驅動因素，特別是從捕獲和吞吐量的角度？

Yes, Joe, this is Greg. So West Coast is fairly simple, and you hit on it. It was maintenance work primarily at Benicia, that impacted not so much throughput there, but it impacted the amount of transportation fuel we could make and so that had an impact on the capture rate.

是的，喬，這是格雷格。因此，西海岸相當簡單，你就成功了。主要是在貝尼西亞進行的維護工作，對那裡的吞吐量影響不大，但影響了我們能夠生產的運輸燃料的數量，從而對捕獲率產生了影響。

In the Mid-Con, throughput was higher. We actually saw a pretty good incentive to continue to maximize throughput there, good demand for products and so we were able to push through a little bit higher than we had planned going into the quarter.

在 Mid-Con，吞吐量更高。我們實際上看到了繼續最大化產量的相當好的激勵，對產品的需求良好，因此我們能夠在本季度實現比我們計劃的更高的產量。

And then on the capture side, one of the factors there you saw crude market structure on WTI less backward than you saw in the prior quarter that had a benefit to capture rates in addition to some of the things I talked about earlier on butane blending.

然後在捕獲方面，其中一個因素是，您看到 WTI 原油市場結構比上一季度落後的程度有所降低，除了我之前談到的有關丁烷混合的一些因素之外，這對捕獲率也有好處。

Great. That's helpful. And then I wanted to shift gears and ask about the ethanol segment. So the indicator continues to grind to lower to start the year. Could you just talk to some of the puts and takes going on in the industry as well as your forward outlook and then also the potential for year-round E15, which was included in the executive orders released last week. Thank you.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我想換個話題問乙醇部分。因此，今年年初該指標持續緩慢走低。您能否談談行業中正在發生的一些事情以及您的未來展望，以及上週發布的行政命令中包含的全年 E15 的潛力。謝謝。

Yes. The ethanol market has been challenged with high inventories and high production rates. I'll say, surprisingly high production rates that have been sustained really for the third and fourth quarter and into the beginning of this year. We have seen some weather-related impacts to production rates. But I think overall, you're looking at high inventories and high production rates. And so it's keeping ethanol margins currently, I would say, below mid-cycle.

是的。乙醇市場面臨高庫存和高生產率的挑戰。我想說的是，令人驚訝的高生產力實際上在第三季和第四季以及今年年初一直持續。我們已經看到天氣對生產力產生了一些影響。但我認為總體而言，你看到的是高庫存和高生產力。因此，我認為目前的乙醇利潤率保持在中期水準以下。

So -- in terms of E15, there's always a lot of positive outlook for that. As you know, we've continued to see E15 approved by emergency order every 20 days. We don't see a lot of E15 movements. We don't see a lot of growth in that market.

因此，就 E15 而言，前景始終十分樂觀。如你所知，我們每隔 20 天就會看到 E15 獲得緊急命令批准。我們沒有看到太多的 E15 運動。我們沒有看到該市場有太大的成長。

We do see Canada still talking about moving to E15 this year through their CFR program. I think there's a high likelihood, you'll more likely see incremental E15 in Canada before the appreciably in the US. But I mean, we'll see how this develops this year by policy. It's still a fairly significant logistics challenge to convert retail to E15. But overall, I mean, it's still something that certainly, the ethanol and ag industry sees as a positive development for ethanol outlook.

我們確實看到加拿大仍在談論今年透過其 CFR 計劃轉向 E15。我認為這種可能性很大，你更有可能在美國之前看到加拿大的 E15 增量。但我的意思是，我們將看看今年的政策將如何發展。將零售業轉化為E15仍然是相當大的物流挑戰。但總的來說，乙醇和農業產業仍然認為這對乙醇前景來說是一個正面的發展。

Great. Thank you all.

偉大的。謝謝大家。

Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Regarding the Canadian tariffs, you talked about some of the impacts on the crude side. How about the product side for Valero? And especially in regards to your Quebec City plant, what kind of volumes does Quebec send to the New York Harbor. And if there were tariffs imposed, do you think it'd be pretty easy to ship those volumes to Latin America or Europe or would we expect to see lower operating rates at Quebec City? Thanks.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。關於加拿大的關稅，您談到了對原油方面的一些影響。Valero 的產品方面怎麼樣？特別是關於你們的魁北克市工廠，魁北克向紐約港發送了多少貨物？如果徵收關稅，您是否認為將這些貨物運往拉丁美洲或歐洲會很容易，或者我們是否預計魁北克市的營運率會下降？謝謝。

Yes. This is Gary. For the most part, our Quebec system is short gasoline. So we import gasoline, a lot of that tends to come from Penbrook. There are periods in the year where we're long diesel. And typically, that does go to New York Harbor. We could place those barrels anywhere in the world. So I wouldn't expect to see a throughput reduction as a result of tariffs.

是的。這是加里。在大多數情況下，我們的魁北克系統都缺乏汽油。因此我們進口汽油，很多都來自彭布魯克。一年當中有一段時間我們會持有大量柴油。通常情況下，這艘船會開往紐約港。我們可以將這些桶子放置在世界任何地方。因此，我預計關稅不會導致吞吐量下降。

Sounds good. And then you mentioned some of the potential impacts from the 45V. One other impact is that RD from foreign eco appears to no longer qualify for a credit is DGD a major importer of foreign UCO and if so how would you expect to replace those volumes? .

聽起來不錯。然後您提到了 45V 的一些潛在影響。另一個影響是，來自外國生態的 RD 似乎不再符合信貸條件，DGD 是否是外國 UCO 的主要進口國，如果是這樣，您預計如何替代這些數量？。

Yes. So -- you're correct, for (inaudible) no longer qualifies for domestic RD. R4 in UCO is and has always been pointed at SAP going into Europe and the UK. So the PTC doesn't really change what we were going to do strategically with that feedstock. And so that's our view as we'll continue to run that into the (inaudible) into the Europe and UK markets.

是的。所以 —— 您說得對，因為 (聽不清楚) 不再符合國內 RD 的資格。UCO 中的 R4 一直致力於讓 SAP 進入歐洲和英國。因此，PTC 並沒有真正改變我們對該原料的策略性舉措。這是我們的觀點，我們將繼續將其推向（聽不清楚）歐洲和英國市場。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask first on the CapEx budget. I believe you said $1.6 billion of sustaining CapEx, which is about $300 million above the five year average. It's the highest level since 2019. So I'm wondering if that is an indicator of above-average turnaround activity in your system for 2025? And if not, what's driving that higher sustaining spend?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想先問一下資本支出預算。我相信您說的是 16 億美元的維持資本支出，這比五年平均值高出約 3 億美元。這是2019年以來的最高水準。所以我想知道這是否表明您的系統在 2025 年的周轉活動將高於平均值？如果不是，那麼是什麼推動了維持性支出的增加？

Hi, Jason, this is Lane. So we nominally, we sort of talk about our sustaining capital in terms of sort of average. And so we average about -- we sort of think about it being $1.5 billion. That's inclusive of turnaround, inclusive of sort of CapEx for ongoing sort of sustaining operations. And so if you sort of -- and catalysts, so when you think in your mind, well, if it's lumpy, if it gets lumpy on the higher side or the lower side. The only thing it can be is additional turnaround work.

你好，Jason，我是 Lane。因此，我們名義上是以平均數來談論我們的維持資本的。所以我們平均認為是 15 億美元。這包括週轉費用，也包括持續維持營運的資本支出。所以如果你有某種——和催化劑，那麼當你在腦海中思考時，好吧，如果它是塊狀的，如果它在較高的一側或較低的一側變得塊狀。唯一能做的就是額外的周轉工作。

Okay. Thanks. And my follow-up is just -- sorry, I'm going to ask another one. On the Canadian tariffs, Valero, I believe, has a lot of its refineries within foreign trade zones and those foreign trade zones typically aren't subject to tariffs. So given that 1Q just clarify that most of your US. Gulf Coast system is in foreign trade zones. And because of that, do you think you would be able to -- if the tariffs are implemented in a very direct way you'd be able to sidestep those tariffs in. Also, do you get any benefit now from operating in those foreign trade zones.

好的。謝謝。我的後續問題是──抱歉，我要問另一個問題。關於加拿大的關稅，我認為瓦萊羅的許多煉油廠都位於對外貿易區內，而這些對外貿易區通常不受關稅影響。因此，鑑於第一季的情況，只需澄清一下大部分的美國情況。墨西哥灣沿岸系統處於對外貿易區。正因為如此，您認為如果以非常直接的方式實施關稅，您是否能夠避開這些關稅？另外，現在在這些對外貿易區經營有沒有什麼好處呢？

Yes. This is Rich Walsh. I would just say that you can't tell anything until you see what the program comes out with, right? So it just depends on how this is all structured. So we also bring in a lot export a lot. And so that's really what the foreign trade zone helps with.

是的。這是里奇·沃爾什。我只想說，在你看到程式的結果之前你什麼也說不出來，對嗎？所以這取決於這一切是如何建構的。因此我們也進口了很多，出口了很多。這正是對外貿易區能夠提供幫助的地方。

And so I don't know that it's really trying to avoid domestic tariffs in any way along those lines. So until you see what they're proposing and how it's structured, you really can't tell whether there's going to be benefit or not.

所以我不知道它是否真的試圖以任何方式避免國內關稅。因此，在你了解他們所提出的方案及其結構之前，你真的無法判斷是否會帶來好處。

But we do have foreign trade downs.

但我們的外貿確實出現下滑。

Yes, yes. We have foreign trade downs.

是的，是的。我們的外貿下滑了。

Got it. Great. Thanks for the color.

知道了。偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments.

謝謝。現在，我想把發言權交還給布拉爾先生，請他作最後評論。

Thank you, Donna. I appreciate everyone joining us today. Obviously, feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions. Have a great day, everyone. Thank you.

謝謝你，唐娜。我感謝今天與我們一起的各位。顯然，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。祝大家有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路或退出網路直播，並享受剩餘的一天。