瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Valero Energy Corp. third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人、投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家早安，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

With me today are Lane Riggs, our CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; and several other members of Valero senior management team.

今天與我在一起的有我們的執行長兼總裁萊恩·里格斯 (Lane Riggs)； Jason Fraser，我們的執行副總裁兼財務長；加里‧西蒙斯 (Gary Simmons)，我們的執行副總裁兼營運長；以及瓦萊羅高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call.

如果您尚未收到收益報告並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站 Investorvalero.com 上找到一份副本。收益發布中還附有表格，提供有關我們業務部門的額外財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的調節和揭露。

If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after this call.

如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請在本次電話會議後隨時聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release.

現在我想請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。

In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions under federal securities laws.

總之，它表示，新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的期望或預測的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。

There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的因素。

Now I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給萊恩，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。

Our third-quarter results reflect a period of heavy maintenance in our refining segment during a relatively weak margin environment.

我們第三季的業績反映了在利潤率相對疲軟的環境下，我們的煉油部門經歷了一段時期的大規模維護。

Our refineries operated at 90% throughput capacity utilization in line with our guidance for the quarter.

我們的煉油廠產能利用率為 90%，符合我們本季的指導。

Product demand across the system remains strong with our US wholesale volumes exceeding 1 million barrels per day for the second consecutive quarter.

整個系統的產品需求仍然強勁，我們的美國批發量連續第二季超過每天 100 萬桶。

On the strategic front, we remain committed to executing projects that continue to enhance the earnings capability of our business and expand our long-term competitive advantage.

在策略方面，我們仍然致力於執行能夠繼續增強我們業務獲利能力並擴大我們長期競爭優勢的專案。

I'm proud to report that the Diamond Green Diesel Sustainable Aviation Fuel, or SAF project, is now mechanically complete and is in the process of starting up.

我很自豪地向大家報告，鑽石綠色柴油可持續航空燃料（SAF）計畫現已機械完成並正在啟動過程中。

The project was completed on schedule and under budget and is a testament to the strength of our projects and operations teams.

該專案按計劃並在預算範圍內完成，證明了我們專案和營運團隊的實力。

On the financial side, we continue to honor our commitment to shareholder returns with a strong payout ratio of 84% for the quarter and a year-to-date payout of 81%.

在財務方面，我們繼續履行對股東回報的承諾，本季的派息率為 84%，年初至今的派息率為 81%。

Looking ahead, improving diesel demand against a backdrop of low-light product inventories should support refining margins.

展望未來，在低輕質產品庫存的背景下，柴油需求的改善應會支撐煉油利潤。

Increases in OPEC+crude supply should widen our sour crude oil differentials and further increase margins.

歐佩克+原油供應的增加應會擴大我們的含硫原油價差並進一步增加利潤。

And longer term, we expect product demand to exceed supply with the announced refinery shutdowns next year and limited capacity additions beyond 2025, supporting long-term refining fundamentals.

從長遠來看，我們預計，隨著明年煉油廠宣布關閉以及 2025 年之後產能增加有限，產品需求將超過供應，以支撐長期煉油基本面。

In closing, our focus on operational excellence, capital discipline, and honoring our commitment to shareholder returns have served us well and will continue to anchor our strategy going forward.

最後，我們對卓越營運、資本紀律以及履行對股東回報的承諾的關注對我們很有幫助，並將繼續鞏固我們的未來策略。

So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

那麼，荷馬，我會把電話轉給你。

Thanks, Lane.

謝謝，萊恩。

For the third quarter of 2024, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $364 million, or $1.14 per share, compared to $2.6 billion, or $7.49 per share for the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季度，瓦萊羅股東應佔淨利為 3.64 億美元，即每股 1.14 美元，而 2023 年第三季為 26 億美元，即每股 7.49 美元。

The refining segment reported $565 million of operating income for the third quarter of 2024 compared to $3.4 billion for the third quarter of 2023.

煉油部門報告 2024 年第三季營業收入為 5.65 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 34 億美元。

Refining throughput volumes in the third quarter of 2024 averaged 2.9 million barrels per day, or 90% throughput capacity utilization.

2024 年第三季煉油吞吐量平均為每天 290 萬桶，即吞吐量利用率為 90%。

Refining cash operating expenses were $4.73 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024.

2024 年第三季煉油現金營運費用為每桶 4.73 美元。

Renewable diesel segment operating income was $35 million for the third quarter of 2024 compared to $123 million for the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季再生柴油部門的營業收入為 3,500 萬美元，而 2023 年第三季為 1.23 億美元。

Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 3.5 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2024, which was 552,000 gallons per day higher than the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季再生柴油銷售平均每天 350 萬加侖，比 2023 年第三季每天增加 552,000 加侖。

The ethanol segment reported $153 million of operating income for the third quarter of 2024 compared to $197 million for the third quarter of 2023.

乙醇部門報告 2024 年第三季營業收入為 1.53 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 1.97 億美元。

Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.6 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2024, which was 255,000 gallons per day higher than the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季乙醇產量平均為 460 萬加侖/天，比 2023 年第三季增加了 255,000 加侖/天。

For the third quarter of 2024, G&A expenses were $234 million, net interest expense was $141 million, depreciation and amortization expense was $685 million, and income tax expense was $96 million.

2024 年第三季度，一般管理費用為 2.34 億美元，淨利息費用為 1.41 億美元，折舊和攤提費用為 6.85 億美元，所得稅費用為 9,600 萬美元。

The effective tax rate was 20%.

有效稅率為20%。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.3 billion in the third quarter of 2024.

2024 年第三季經營活動提供的淨現金為 13 億美元。

Included in this amount was $166 million favorable change in working capital and $47 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD.

其中包括 1.66 億美元的營運資本有利變動以及與 DGD 其他合資成員股份相關的經營活動提供的 4,700 萬美元的調整後淨現金。

Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2024.

排除這些項目，2024 年第三季經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為 11 億美元。

Regarding investing activities, we made $429 million of capital investments in the third quarter of 2024, of which $338 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts, and regulatory compliance, and the balance was for growing the business.

在投資活動方面，我們在 2024 年第三季進行了 4.29 億美元的資本投資，其中 3.38 億美元用於維持業務，包括週轉、催化劑和監管合規成本，其餘用於發展業務。

Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD and other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $394 million in the third quarter of 2024.

不計入 DGD 的其他合資成員份額和其他可變利益實體的資本投資，2024 年第三季瓦萊羅的資本投資為 3.94 億美元。

Moving to financing activities.

轉向融資活動。

We returned $907 million to our stockholders in the third quarter of 2024, of which $342 million was paid as dividends and $565 million was for the purchase of approximately 3.8 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 84% for the quarter.

2024 年第三季度，我們向股東返還 9.07 億美元，其中 3.42 億美元作為股息支付，5.65 億美元用於購買約 380 萬股普通股，該季度的派息率為 84%。

Year to date, we have returned $3.7 billion to our stockholders in the form of dividends and buybacks, resulting in a payout ratio of 81%, well above our long-term minimum commitment of 40% to 50%.

今年迄今為止，我們已以股息和回購的形式向股東返還 37 億美元，股息率為 81%，遠高於我們 40% 至 50% 的長期最低承諾。

In fact, since the start of 2021, our total cash flows from operations have exceeded our total uses of cash over this period, including capital investments over $4 billion of debt reduction and over $18 billion returned to stockholders through dividends and share buybacks.

事實上，自2021 年初以來，我們的營運總現金流量已經超過了在此期間的現金使用總量，其中包括超過40 億美元的債務削減資本投資，以及透過股利和股票回購向股東返還的超過180 億美元。

With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $8.4 billion of total debt, $2.5 billion of finance lease obligations, and $5.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents.

就我們的資產負債表而言，本季末我們的債務總額為 84 億美元，融資租賃債務為 25 億美元，現金和現金等價物為 52 億美元。

The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash, and cash equivalents was 17% as of September 30, 2024.

截至2024年9月30日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的債務與資本比率為17%。

And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

本季結束時，我們資本充足，可用流動資金為 53 億美元（不含現金）。

Turning to guidance.

轉向指導。

We still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2024 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance, and joint venture investments.

我們仍預期 2024 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑、監管合規和合資企業投資的支出。

About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth with approximately half of the growth capital towards our low-carbon fuels businesses and half towards refining projects.

其中約 16 億美元分配用於維持業務和平衡成長，其中約一半的成長資本用於我們的低碳燃料業務，一半用於煉油項目。

For modeling our fourth quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.83 million to 1.88 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 425,000 to 445,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 230,000 to 250,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 380,000 to 400,000 barrels per day.

為了模擬我們第四季的營運情況，我們預計煉油吞吐量將落在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸為每天 183 萬桶至 188 萬桶；中大陸產量為 425,000 至 445,000 桶/日；西海岸每天 23 萬桶 25 萬桶；北大西洋的產量為每天 380,000 至 400,000 桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the fourth quarter to be approximately $4.60 per barrel.

我們預計第四季煉油現金營運支出約為每桶 4.60 美元。

With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we still expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2024.

對於再生柴油領域，我們仍預計 2024 年銷售量約為 12 億加侖。

Operating expenses in 2024 should be $0.45 per gallon, which includes $0.18 per gallon for non-cash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

2024 年的營運費用應為每加侖 0.45 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.18 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.7 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter.

我們的乙醇部門預計第四季每天生產 470 萬加侖。

Operating expenses should average $0.37 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for non-cash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

營運費用平均為每加侖 0.37 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。

For the fourth quarter, net interest expense should be about $140 million, and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $690 million.

第四季的淨利息支出應約為 1.4 億美元，總折舊和攤提費用應約為 6.9 億美元。

For 2024, we expect G&A expenses to be approximately $975 million.

2024 年，我們預計一般管理費用約為 9.75 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks.

我們的開場白就到此結束。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

(Operator instructions) Manav Gupta, UBS.

（操作員說明）Manav Gupta，UBS。

My first question here is, can you talk a little bit about the demand for key products and how that is trending as we are coming to a close in 2024?

我的第一個問題是，您能談談對關鍵產品的需求以及 2024 年即將結束時的趨勢嗎？

Sure, Manav.

當然，馬納夫。

This is Gary.

這是加里。

Obviously, a much weaker refinery margin environment in the third quarter than we've seen in the last couple of years.

顯然，第三季煉油廠利潤率環境比過去幾年弱得多。

The interesting thing to us is it looks like the underlying market fundamentals actually improved during the third quarter and have continued to improve as we move into the fourth quarter.

對我們來說有趣的是，看起來潛在的市場基本面實際上在第三季度有所改善，並且隨著進入第四季度而繼續改善。

Despite that, the improving market fundamentals, market sentiment seems to turn more negative, driving crack spreads even lower.

儘管如此，隨著市場基本面的改善，市場情緒似乎變得更加消極，導致裂解價差進一步走低。

To us in the markets where we have a presence, things look very similar to what we've seen in the past couple of years.

對於我們所在的市場來說，情況看起來與我們過去幾年所看到的非常相似。

Lane alluded to our sales in the third quarter through wholesale over 1 million barrels a day.

Lane 提到我們第三季的批發銷售量每天超過 100 萬桶。

We averaged 1.008 million in the third quarter, which is actually up year over year.

第三季我們的平均人數為 100.8 萬，實際上年比有所成長。

Gasoline sales were fairly flat year over year.

汽油銷量較去年同期相當持平。

Diesel sales actually increased year over year.

柴油銷量實際上年增。

Thus far in the fourth quarter, we've actually seen about a 40,000-barrel-a-day increase in sales in our wholesale channel.

到目前為止，第四季度我們的批發通路銷售實際上每天增加了約 40,000 桶。

So it's actually going up.

所以它實際上正在上升。

You kind of compare that to get an indication of demand with some other indicators.

您可以將其與其他一些指標進行比較，以獲得需求指示。

Vehicle models traveled were up about 1%.

出行車型增加了約 1%。

So that kind of matches with our numbers.

所以這與我們的數字相符。

Even the DOE data, although there's a lot of noise week to week, if you look at the year to date, demand numbers from the DOE would kind of show gasoline demand flat to slightly up.

即使是能源部的數據，儘管每週都有很多噪音，但如果你看看今年迄今為止，能源部的需求數據會顯示汽油需求持平或略有上升。

And so we think that's where we are.

所以我們認為這就是我們現在的處境。

Again, I said diesel sales in our system up a little bit year over year.

我再說一遍，我們系統中的柴油銷量比去年同期有所成長。

Again, if you look at some of the other indicators of the demand, especially the freight indices would indicate, demand for diesel is a little bit softer.

同樣，如果你看其他一些需求指標，特別是貨運指數，你會發現柴油的需求有點疲軟。

Compare that to the DOE numbers in the year-to-date DOE numbers, which show diesel demand down close to 100,000 barrels a day, we think that's pretty close.

與 DOE 年初至今的數據相比，我們認為這已經非常接近了，該數據顯示柴油需求每天下降近 10 萬桶。

Some of that gap in diesel demand has been made up by an increase in jet fuel demand, about half of that.

柴油需求的部分缺口已由航空燃油需求的增加彌補，其中約一半。

So net-net, I think in the US, we feel like total light products' kind of flat to slightly down year over year.

因此，我認為在美國，我們感覺輕質產品總量與去年同期持平甚至略有下降。

Markets outside the US where we have a significant market presence in Canada, the UK, Mexico, all very similar trends, I think all three of those markets have witnessed a year-over-year growth in gasoline demand, year over year growth in jet demand, and a decline in diesel demand.

在美國以外的市場，我們在加拿大、英國、墨西哥擁有重要的市場份額，所有這些趨勢都非常相似，我認為所有這三個市場都見證了汽油需求的同比增長，噴氣式飛機需求的同比增長需求，以及柴油需求下降。

So demand looks pretty strong outside those markets.

因此，這些市場以外的需求看起來相當強勁。

We continue to see good export demand.

我們繼續看到良好的出口需求。

Gasoline exports in the third quarter, about 100,000 barrels a day, typical markets, Latin America and Canada.

第三季汽油出口量約為每天10萬桶，典型市場為拉丁美洲和加拿大。

Diesel exports in the third quarter were 260,000 barrels a day, again, kind of South America and Europe.

第三季柴油出口量為每天 26 萬桶，同樣是南美和歐洲的出口量。

So we continue to see demand that looks very similar to what we've seen in the last couple of years in the markets where we have a strong presence.

因此，我們繼續看到需求與我們過去幾年在我們擁有強大影響力的市場中看到的非常相似。

Perfect, Gary.

完美，加里。

So my quick follow-up is, if there are no real red flags here in demand, and it's mildly softer in US but stronger outside, why did we suddenly hit this environment where the cracks are trending below mid-cycle?

因此，我的快速跟進是，如果這裡的需求沒有真正的危險信號，並且美國的需求稍微疲軟，但國外的需求更強，為什麼我們突然遇到這種裂縫趨勢低於週期中期的環境？

And do you see this as transient if the demand holds then the track should be able to get back to mid-cycle or maybe even higher?

如果需求保持不變，那麼您是否認為這是暫時的，那麼賽道應該能夠回到週期中期甚至更高？

Yeah, Manav.

是的，馬納夫。

I would say some of this, typically on the third quarter earnings call, you tend to have a little more negative market sentiment.

我想說的是，通常在第三季的財報電話會議上，市場情緒往往會更加負面。

And there's some reasons for that.

這是有一些原因的。

Each year around Labor Day, you typically had some hurricane hype in the market that tends to go away as people view your out of hurricane season, you've gone through RVP transition, you start our RVP transition on gasoline, swelling the gasoline pool.

每年勞動節前後，市場上通常會有一些颶風炒作，當人們看到颶風季節結束時，這些炒作往往會消失，您已經經歷了RVP 過渡，您開始對汽油進行RVP 過渡，從而擴大了汽油池。

Labor Day kind of marks the end of driving season.

勞動節標誌著駕駛季節的結束。

So you can certainly understand some negative market sentiment around gasoline.

因此，您當然可以理解圍繞汽油的一些負面市場情緒。

And typically, the fourth quarter and first quarter tend to be driven more by strength in the distillate cracks.

通常情況下，第四季和第一季往往更多地受到餾分油裂縫強度的推動。

I think we came into this year and although the US economy has been fairly resilient, we're seen some pockets of economic weakness throughout the globe, which have driven down diesel demand a little bit and cause the pessimism around diesel cracks.

我認為今年以來，儘管美國經濟相當有彈性，但我們看到全球範圍內出現了一些經濟疲軟，這略微降低了柴油需求，並引發了圍繞柴油裂紋的悲觀情緒。

If you look at where things are, though, the fundamentals look strong.

不過，如果你看看目前的狀況，你會發現基本面看起來很強勁。

We're going into the year with very low inventories, gasoline inventory 10 million barrels below where we were last year at this time, below the five-year average.

今年庫存量非常低，汽油庫存量比去年同期低 1,000 萬桶，低於五年平均值。

Some of the key things we tend to be focused on in the gasoline markets at this time of the year, market structure, market structure is backwards.

每年這個時候我們往往會關注汽油市場的一些關鍵問題，市場結構、市場結構是落後的。

So there's no incentive to produce and store summer-grade gasoline.

因此沒有動力生產和儲存夏季級汽油。

Typically, in the fourth quarter, the first quarter, you will have a positive transatlantic arb to ship from Europe to New York Harbor, at least on paper that arb is closed throughout the fourth quarter.

通常情況下，在第四季度、第一季度，您將有一個積極的跨大西洋套利從歐洲運送到紐約港，至少在紙面上套利在整個第四季度都是關閉的。

Export demand for gasoline remains strong.

汽油出口需求依然強勁。

We're seeing good export demand into Latin America.

我們看到拉丁美洲的出口需求良好。

So things look good for gasoline.

因此，汽油的情況看起來不錯。

I don't think you're going to see any big moves in the gas crack anytime soon.

我認為短期內不會看到天然氣裂縫有任何重大變化。

But as long as inventory remains in check, you get back into driving season RVP transition, we would expect gas cracks to respond.

但只要庫存保持在控制範圍內，你就會回到駕駛季節 RVP 過渡，我們預計天然氣裂縫會做出反應。

On the distillate side, again, like gasoline, the key thing is, although we've seen a little bit less demand than we'd hoped for.

在餾分油方面，就像汽油一樣，關鍵是，儘管我們看到需求比我們希望的要少。

Distillate inventories are trending toward the lows that we've seen the last couple of years.

餾分油庫存正趨向過去幾年的低點。

I think you saw economic run cuts throughout parts of the world that took some supply off the market.

我認為你看到世界各地的經濟運作削減，導致市場上的一些供應減少。

Here recently, we've had turnaround activity, decreased supply as well.

最近，我們進行了周轉活動，供應也減少了。

So it put us in a pretty good position heading into winter.

所以這讓我們在進入冬天時處於一個非常有利的位置。

And I think if you have some uptick in demand from heating oil demand with some colder weather, you'll see distillate cracks respond as well.

我認為，如果天氣寒冷，取暖油需求增加，您也會看到餾分油裂解反應。

John Royall, JPMorgan.

約翰‧羅亞爾，摩根大通。

So my first question is on capital allocation.

所以我的第一個問題是關於資本配置。

You were very aggressive on your buyback program in 3Q despite what's been a downtick in cracks.

儘管出現了一些裂縫，但您在第三季的回購計劃非常積極。

You've been pretty clear on your framework in sort of a mid-cycle and above environment.

在某種中期及以上環境中，您已經非常清楚自己的框架。

But assuming we stay in this lower margin environment, can you talk about how your approach to returning capital may or may not change in terms of that 70%’s or 80%’s of CFO type range that you've been in?

但假設我們仍處於這種利潤率較低的環境中，您能談談您的資本返還方法可能會或可能不會根據您所擁有的 70% 或 80% 的 CFO 類型範圍而改變嗎？嗎？

And would you use your balance sheet a little bit at lower parts of the cycle?

您會在週期的較低階段使用您的資產負債表嗎？

John, this is Jason.

約翰，這是傑森。

I'm going to ask Homer to respond to your question.

我要請荷馬回答你的問題。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

John.

約翰.

Yeah, I mean, I think in this environment we're in and with the strength of our balance sheet, you absolutely should continue to expect us to be in our posture.

是的，我的意思是，我認為在我們所處的環境下，憑藉我們資產負債表的實力，你絕對應該繼續期望我們保持目前的態勢。

As I mentioned in the opening remarks, you can go back to the start of 2021.

正如我在開場白中提到的，你可以回到 2021 年初。

We've been able to fund all our uses of cash, including capital.

我們已經能夠為我們所有的現金使用提供資金，包括資本。

We've paid down over $4 billion of debt and returned over $18 billion to shareholders over that period, all through cash flow from operations.

在此期間，我們透過營運現金流償還了超過 40 億美元的債務，並向股東返還了超過 180 億美元。

So turning to where we are now, let me start by reiterating that the 40% to 50% is a minimum commitment, not a target.

因此，回到我們現在的情況，首先讓我重申，40% 至 50% 是最低承諾，而不是目標。

So we're always going to honor that.

所以我們將永遠尊重這一點。

As you noted, we've consistently been well above that despite the pullback in margins.

正如您所指出的，儘管利潤率有所回落，但我們的業績一直遠高於這一水平。

And I think you can attribute our ability to do that because of our low-cost profile and then disciplined use of capital.

我認為你可以將我們做到這一點的能力歸因於我們的低成本特徵以及對資本的嚴格使用。

So given the strength of our balance sheet and our cash position, I think you should rest comfortable that the 40% to 50% will continue to be a floor and all excess free cash flow will go towards buybacks.

因此，考慮到我們資產負債表的實力和現金狀況，我認為你應該放心，40% 到 50% 將繼續作為下限，所有多餘的自由現金流都將用於回購。

Great.

偉大的。

And then my next question is just on California.

我的下一個問題是關於加州的。

We've gotten news of a new closure out there, which all other things equal, will be a good thing for those who remain.

我們得到了新的關閉的消息，在其他條件相同的情況下，對於那些留下來的人來說將是一件好事。

But there are some new legislative pressures there, and you've also mentioned strategic alternatives, I think, in your 10-Q.

但那裡存在一些新的立法壓力，我認為您在 10-Q 中也提到了戰略替代方案。

I was wondering if you could just give us an update on how you're thinking about continuing to operate as a refinery in California and what those strategic alternatives might be.

我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您如何考慮繼續在加利福尼亞州作為煉油廠運營以及這些戰略替代方案可能是什麼。

John, this is Lane.

約翰，這是萊恩。

I'll let Rich start with the policy side, then I'll talk about the strategic side after he answers the question.

我先讓Rich從政策方面開始，等他回答問題後我再談策略方面。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

So it's really unclear at this time whether when and which one of these various policies that the state keeps proposing coming out of these legislations.

因此，目前還不清楚國家是否會在這些立法中不斷提出各種政策中的哪一項，以及何時出台。

So we'll have to kind of see how that plays out.

所以我們必須看看結果如何。

A lot of these are driven by a lot of political rhetoric that you see coming out of the state.

其中許多都是由來自該州的許多政治言論所驅動的。

And I think when we see that pass from the legislature and the political arena back over to the CEC for implementation, I think you see them struggle with a lot of these ideas.

我認為，當我們看到這一點從立法機關和政治舞台回到中央執行委員會實施時，我想你會看到他們在很多這樣的想法上掙扎。

There are ideas that they sound good politically, but when you start putting them into the market realities, it has the potential to make things even more costly for consumers.

有些想法在政治上聽起來不錯，但當你開始將它們付諸市場現實時，它有可能使消費者的成本變得更高。

So the reality is that California policy has cost the state a number of refineries and including this most recent announcement.

因此，現實情況是，加州的政策已經讓該州的許多煉油廠付出了代價，包括最近的聲明。

And so you can't have policy that impairs supply and then expect it to lower prices for customers and consumers.

因此，你不能製定削弱供應的政策，然後期望它降低客戶和消費者的價格。

So recall, all of these regulations have a caveat in them that require the CEC to implement it only if they find that the actions will lower cost for consumers.

因此，請記住，所有這些法規都有一個警告，要求 CEC 只有在發現這些行動會降低消費者成本的情況下才能實施。

And that's going to be the challenge for them.

這對他們來說將是一個挑戰。

On strategy, we've been consistent for over a decade, probably even longer than that in terms of how we manage and steward the West Coast, and it's largely driven by California policy.

在戰略上，我們十多年來一直保持一致，甚至可能比我們管理和管理西海岸的方式更長，這在很大程度上是由加州政策驅動的。

We've minimized strategic CapEx, we make sure we maintain a really reliable operation through our maintenance CapEx, which in turn positions us as a core call option on West Coast cracks.

我們最大限度地減少了戰略資本支出，確保透過維護資本支出維持真正可靠的運營，這反過來又使我們成為西海岸裂縫的核心看漲期權。

With that said, California is increasing its regulatory pressure on the industry.

儘管如此，加州正在加大對該行業的監管壓力。

So it's really considering everything, all options are on the table.

所以它真的在考慮一切，所有的選擇都在桌面上。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

特蕾莎·陳，巴克萊銀行。

Can you unpack some of the earlier comments on the evolution of global product supply over the more, I guess, medium to long term, taking into account the continued ramp-up facilities abroad as well as planned closures in 2025.

我想，考慮到國外設施的持續增加以及計劃在 2025 年關閉，您能否解讀一下之前關於全球產品供應在中長期演變的一些評論。

How do you think this trend?

您如何看待這股趨勢？

And do you expect changes in trade flows as a result?

您預計貿易流量會因此改變嗎？

Yeah, Theresa, I can try.

是的，特蕾莎，我可以試試。

So overall, when we look at 2025, we see about 1,040,000 barrels a day of new refining capacity coming online.

因此，總體而言，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們會看到每天大約有 1,040,000 桶新煉油產能投入使用。

And so far, there's about 740,000 barrels a day of refinery closures announced.

到目前為止，每天約有 74 萬桶煉油廠宣布關閉。

So net-net, about a 300,000 barrel a day net capacity additions.

因此，淨淨產能每天淨增加約 30 萬桶。

And then forecast for total light product demand we're looking at is about an increase in 700,000 barrels a day.

然後，我們預測的輕量產品總需求量約為每天增加 70 萬桶。

So for next year, really, it all comes -- and it becomes about timing.

因此，對於明年，一切都會到來——而且關鍵在於時機。

When did those refineries close, when did the new capacity come online.

這些煉油廠什麼時候關閉，新產能什麼時候上線。

So it gives a lot of uncertainty into next year.

因此，這給明年帶來了很多不確定性。

Even the demand side is a little uncertain.

就連需求方面也有些不確定。

A lot of the economic stimulus in China, how long does it take to come into effect?

中國的許多經濟刺激措施，需要多長時間才能生效？

But we see tightening balances through next year.

但我們預計明年餘額將會收緊。

And then when you get past next year, you kind of have a fairly extended period where when you look at net capacity additions, and total product demand growth, there's a pretty good gap there.

然後，當你明年過去時，你會經歷一段相當長的時期，當你觀察淨產能增加和總產品需求成長時，會發現存在相當大的差距。

So we see an extended period with tighter and tighter balances around the refining margins.

因此，我們認為煉油利潤的平衡將在很長一段時間內變得越來越緊。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then turning to the renewables front.

然後轉向再生能源前沿。

Would you be able to provide an update on how the SAF unit is operating following its recent in-service and any other commercial discussions to broaden this offering as well as your views on the subsidy prices.

您能否提供有關 SAF 單位最近投入使用後的運營情況的最新信息以及任何其他商業討論以擴大這一服務以及您對補貼價格的看法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, I'd say -- this is Eric, Theresa.

是的，我想說──這是艾瑞克，特蕾莎。

The SAF startup looks great.

SAF 新創公司看起來很棒。

As we said in the call, the project finished ahead of schedule from our original timing that we had for 1Q of next year and it finished under budget.

正如我們在電話中所說，該項目比我們原定的明年第一季的時間表提前完成，並且在預算範圍內完成。

So project execution for Valero once again demonstrates its exceptional ability to beat expectations.

因此，瓦萊羅的專案執行再次證明了其超出預期的卓越能力。

And then you expect that performance as we go into full operations.

然後，當我們全面投入營運時，您會期望獲得這樣的性能。

So, so far, startup looks very good.

所以，到目前為止，啟動看起來非常好。

I don't think we have any doubt it's going to meet its design capability.

我認為我們毫不懷疑它會滿足其設計能力。

And commercially, we're seeing a lot of interest and continued contracting of the product, both from a SPK standpoint, as well as a blended SAF standpoint.

在商業上，無論是從 SPK 的角度還是從混合 SAF 的角度來看，我們都看到了對該產品的極大興趣和持續的承包。

And I don't know, Gary, if you wanted to comment on any of that.

加里，我不知道你是否想對此發表評論。

No, I'm not going to go into a lot of details, but there's been some press releases with some of the airlines, Southwest, JetBlue about contracts that we've signed.

不，我不會透露太多細節，但我們已經與一些航空公司、西南航空、捷藍航空發布了一些關於我們簽署的合約的新聞稿。

In addition to that, we're dealing with freight carriers.

除此之外，我們也與貨運公司打交道。

There's been an announcement with DHL.

DHL 已發佈公告。

So I'm not going to go into a lot of the commercial details there.

因此，我不會過多討論其中的商業細節。

But when we made the decision to fund the project, we said we expected it to exceed our minimum return threshold of after tax, 25%, still confident with the contracts we have in place and the volumes sold that we'll do that.

但當我們決定為該項目提供資金時，我們表示預計該項目將超過稅後 25% 的最低迴報門檻，但我們仍然對我們現有的合約和銷售量充滿信心，相信我們會做到這一點。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊蓋特，沃爾夫研究中心。

Appreciate you take my questions guys.

感謝你們回答我的問題。

Gary, I wonder if I could go back to the balances question.

加里，我想知道我是否可以回到餘額問題。

I know it's an imperfect an imprecise assessment that we're all trying to make here.

我知道我們在這裡試圖做出的評估是不完美的、不精確的。

But I wanted to use Valero as an example.

但我想用瓦萊羅作為例子。

I look back, your -- obviously, your mechanical availability has been one of the hallmarks of the investment case.

我回頭看，顯然，您的機械可用性一直是投資案例的標誌之一。

2018 third quarter, 99%, '19, 94%.

2018年第三季度，99%，'19，94%。

Pre-COVID '22, 95%, 95% last year.

在 COVID '22 之前，95%，去年 95%。

My point is that you guys have obviously got a lot of upside to your potential utilization.

我的觀點是，你們的潛在利用率顯然有很大的上升空間。

And the same is probably true then of anyone who's cutting runs at this point, Singapore or whatever.

對於任何在這一點上減少跑步的人來說，無論是新加坡還是其他地方，情況可能也是如此。

So when you think about supply additions, what are you assuming for the response of a potentially oversupplied market raising utilization in some of those more challenged refineries.

因此，當您考慮增加供應時，您對潛在供應過剩市場的反應有何假設，從而提高了一些面臨更大挑戰的煉油廠的利用率。

And I guess what I'm getting at is it not reasonable to assume we need another round of refinery closures before we get back to that above mid-cycle that you were talking about.

我想我的意思是，在我們回到你所說的周期中期以上之前，假設我們需要另一輪煉油廠關閉是不合理的。

Yeah.

是的。

We look at historic refinery utilization rates and we look at the balances and kind of assume it's going to be in line with historic utilization rates.

我們查看歷史煉油廠利用率和餘額，並假設它將與歷史利用率保持一致。

However, I do think you can see a lot of refining capacity in the world that's underwater, some of that is in need of a lot of capital investment.

然而，我確實認為世界上有很多水下煉油能力，其中一些需要大量資本投資。

And so I think you will see additional refinery closures as well.

因此，我認為您還會看到更多煉油廠關閉。

Okay.

好的。

So I guess to be -- is that something you have any insight to?

所以我想——你對此有什麼見解嗎？

Or are you guessing

或者你猜

--?

——？

No, we can't name refineries that would close, but you can kind of see that refiners that are under pressure, some in Europe, some in the Far East.

不，我們無法說出將關閉的煉油廠的名稱，但你可以看到煉油廠面臨壓力，有些在歐洲，有些在遠東。

And our expectation is you'll see some additional announced closures coming.

我們的期望是您會看到一些額外宣布的關閉即將到來。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Well, on the topic as my follow-up, if you don't mind, and that's going back to your comments about California.

好吧，如果您不介意的話，關於我的後續話題，那就回到您對加州的評論。

I mean, obviously, we've had ABX 2-1, I guess, is it the title of it the inventory question.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們已經有了 ABX 2-1，我想，這就是庫存問題的標題嗎？

And it seems that when Phillips 66 shut down Rodeo, there was an equal and opposite impact from imports that seem to offset any potential tightness in the West Coast.

當 Phillips 66 關閉 Rodeo 時，進口產生了同等且相反的影響，似乎抵消了西海岸任何潛在的供應緊張。

So I guess as you look at your portfolio overall, and particularly the West Coast, how do you see the cost competitiveness?

所以我想當你審視你的整體投資組合，特別是西海岸時，你如何看待成本競爭力？

It's the only asset in the only area in your portfolio that lost money this year this past quarter.

這是您投資組合中今年上個季度虧損的唯一資產。

Any color you can give on how you're thinking about portfolio adjustments going forward?

您可以透露一下您對未來投資組合調整的看法嗎？

Doug, it's Lane.

道格，我是萊恩。

I sort of alluded to it before.

我之前曾提過。

It's clearly our highest cost structure operation.

這顯然是我們成本結構最高的營運。

Historically, they had been challenged with respect to cost of crude.

從歷史上看，他們曾面臨原油成本的挑戰。

So if you think about OpEx the regulatory environment and the supply situation in the West Coast, it's always a challenge.

因此，如果您考慮營運支出、西海岸的監管環境和供應情況，這始終是一個挑戰。

And it's very different than maybe some of the other areas that we operate.

這可能與我們經營的其他一些領域非常不同。

And again, what we've historically done is try to position the assets to be a call option for when things get out of balance because the supply chain is so long.

再說一遍，我們歷史上所做的就是嘗試將資產定位為看漲期權，以應對由於供應鏈太長而導致事情失去平衡的情況。

So with respect to these regulations, we'll just have to see what they actually finally try to do.

因此，對於這些規定，我們只需要看看他們最終實際上想要做什麼。

But clearly, the California regulatory environment is putting pressure on operators out there and how they might think about going forward with their operations.

但顯然，加州的監管環境正在給營運商以及他們如何考慮繼續營運帶來壓力。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

羅傑·里德，富國銀行。

Yes.

是的。

I want to come back and hammer the California question as well.

我也想回來討論加州問題。

In the most recent 10-K and 10-Q, you've highlighted issues with California from an asset value or an ongoing concern kind of question.

在最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 中，您從資產價值或持續關注的問題中強調了加州的問題。

With Philips closing down their unit or announcing the closure of their unit, California obviously hypersensitive about the price of fuels to consumers regardless of what their policy may do.

隨著飛利浦關閉其部門或宣布關閉其部門，加州顯然對消費者的燃料價格高度敏感，無論他們的政策如何。

Does it impact your ability, you think, going forward, if you have to make a hard decision on a California refining unit that someone else went first?

您認為，如果您必須對別人先行的加州煉油廠做出艱難決定，這會影響您未來的能力嗎？

I mean sort of does it invite more political interference?

我的意思是它會招致更多的政治幹預嗎？

And how would that work?

那如何運作呢？

I mean, I don't know that, that really factors into our thinking necessarily.

我的意思是，我不知道，這確實必然影響我們的思考。

I mean I think what we would be looking at is what are the regulatory programs that California puts forward.

我的意思是，我認為我們要關注的是加州提出的監管計劃。

A lot of these programs were announced.

許多這樣的計劃都已公佈。

I mean the initial one, the margin cap was announced almost two years ago, and they've still been collecting information and studying the market.

我的意思是第一個，保證金上限是在大約兩年前宣布的，他們仍在收集資訊和研究市場。

I think one of the realities is there's the market is incredibly efficient until you interfere with it.

我認為現實之一是市場非常高效，除非你幹預它。

And I think the California is, I think, starting to realize that as the more they interfere, the worse the situation gets.

我認為加州開始意識到，他們幹預得越多，情況就會變得越糟。

And so that's, I think, the challenge there.

我認為這就是挑戰。

So I think we have to wait and see what they're going to do and what they decide.

所以我認為我們必須等待，看看他們會做什麼以及他們會做出什麼決定。

I mean, it's their choice, and then we just have to react to that.

我的意思是，這是他們的選擇，然後我們只需對此做出反應。

And what others do, that's their decision.

而其他人做什麼，那是他們的決定。

We have great assets out there, and we have great people operating them.

我們擁有豐富的資產，並且擁有優秀的人才來經營這些資產。

So I think we like our position.

所以我認為我們喜歡我們的立場。

Appreciate that.

很欣賞這一點。

Rich, you're more of an optimist than me because I don't really believe they quite grasp all the impacts of policies in terms of the outcomes.

里奇，你比我更樂觀，因為我真的不相信他們完全掌握了政策對結果的所有影響。

The follow-up question, I'd just like to ask, probably to Gary, diesel demand does look like it's starting to improve here in the US the last kind of, let's call it, two months' worth.

我想問的後續問題可能是對加里來說，美國的柴油需求似乎確實開始改善，我們稱之為兩個月的最後一種。

Is there anything you're seeing that in terms of DOE information?

您在能源部資訊方面看到了什麼嗎？

Is there anything you're seeing as you look at that in a more short-term basis versus like your full-year commentary on demand?

當你從更短期的角度看待這個問題時，與你的全年按需評論相比，你有什麼看到的嗎？

I think both gasoline and diesel, we saw a little bit of demand softness, and it's picked up as the year has gone on.

我認為無論是汽油還是柴油，我們都看到了一些需求疲軟，並且隨著時間的推移，需求回升。

I mentioned over the last two weeks, we've actually seen a surge.

我在過去兩週提到過，我們實際上看到了激增。

So in the last two weeks, we have about a 5% year-over-year increase in diesel demand kind of consistent with your comments.

因此，在過去兩週，我們的柴油需求年增了約 5%，這與您的評論一致。

I think you're seeing some of that in Europe as well.

我想你在歐洲也看到了一些這樣的狀況。

You can see the 211 in Europe has gone up $2 or $3 in the last few weeks, kind of indicating that some of that topping capacity, the diesel from some of that hydroskimming topping capacity is needed to supply the market as things are getting tight heading into winter.

您可以看到歐洲的 211 在過去幾週內上漲了 2 或 3 美元，這表明隨著情況變得緊張，需要一些頂裝產能、來自一些加氫撇油頂裝產能的柴油來供應市場進入冬天。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，豐業銀行。

I apologize.

我道歉。

First, I want to add -- one question is on California also.

首先，我想補充一點——還有一個問題是關於加州的。

I think Gary and Lane.

我認為加里和萊恩。

Historically, that refiner doesn't just shut down the refinery just because they're not making money.

從歷史上看，煉油廠不會因為煉油廠不賺錢而關閉它們。

But typically, we wait until there's a substantial CapEx outlay requirement, maybe a major turn on before that they're being pushed to make a hard decision.

但通常情況下，我們會等到出現大量的資本支出需求，或者可能出現重大轉變，然後他們才會被迫做出艱難的決定。

Just curious that in your Benicia refinery, can you share that what that may be the time line, say, at what point that will be the next major capital outlay that you need to put that you will have to make a decision or that more likely than we'll make you trying to have a decision whether that is a viable ongoing business or not.

只是好奇，在您的貝尼西亞煉油廠，您能否分享一下可能的時間線，比如說，您需要做出決定的下一個主要資本支出將在什麼時候做出，或者更有可能我們會讓您嘗試決定這是否是一項可行的持續業務。

Is there any you can say?

有什麼可以說的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Paul, this is Lane.

保羅，這是萊恩。

Sorry for that.

對此感到抱歉。

So good try.

很好的嘗試。

We don't normally provide outlooks with respect to our turnaround activity.

我們通常不會提供有關我們的扭虧為盈活動的前景。

But your premise is correct.

但你的前提是正確的。

I mean clearly, not only the cost structure out there is higher the cost turnarounds out there is significantly higher.

我的意思很明確，不僅成本結構更高，而且成本週轉率也明顯更高。

And so it weighs any big outlay on turnarounds in the West Coast is in the way you think about assets going forward, it will -- and any other asset really in the world for that matter, it's largely driven by the next big capital outlay.

因此，它權衡西海岸扭虧為盈的任何巨額支出，就像你考慮未來資產的方式一樣，世界上任何其他資產都將在很大程度上受到下一次巨額資本支出的推動。

But in terms of guidance on -- and we're going to do our next turnaround.

但就指導而言——我們將進行下一次轉變。

As a general policy, we just don't do that.

作為一般政策，我們只是不這樣做。

Okay.

好的。

Understand.

理解。

And Europe or that North Atlantic, the margin capture is phenomenal.

歐洲或北大西洋的利潤捕獲是驚​​人的。

And it's interesting because I mean, Europe, the market condition quite frankly is difficult.

這很有趣，因為我的意思是，坦白說，歐洲的市場狀況很困難。

So if the strong margin capture is really driven by your Quebec City refinery?

那麼，強勁的利潤率是否真的是由魁北克市煉油廠推動的呢？

Or that is -- I mean, Europe is also doing well.

或者說，我的意思是，歐洲也表現良好。

Just try to help us understand -- I mean, over the past two or three years, quite frankly, North Atlantic oftentimes surprises us on the upside.

只是試著幫助我們理解——我的意思是，在過去的兩三年裡，坦白說，北大西洋經常給我們帶來驚喜。

So trying to understand what's going on there.

所以試著去了解那裡發生了什麼事。

Hey, Paul, it's Greg.

嘿，保羅，我是格雷格。

So a couple of things that impacted the North Atlantic in the third quarter: One, we had some very good results from the commercial team that helped contribute; And then the second thing, you talked about Quebec, but really crude cost for that region.

第三季影響北大西洋的幾件事：第一，我們從幫助貢獻的商業團隊中獲得了一些非常好的結果；然後第二件事，你談到了魁北克，但該地區的成本確實很低。

Sometimes it's Quebec, sometimes it's Pembroke, but crude costs were fairly favorable.

有時是魁北克，有時是彭布羅克，但原油成本相當優惠。

Some of that was some of the Canadian grades coming into Quebec.

其中一些是進入魁北克的加拿大成績。

Some of that was just the relative value of the grades we're running versus dated Brent.

其中一些只是我們正在運行的品級與過時的布蘭特原油的相對價值。

And so while that market might have been challenged, remember that the capture is relative to kind of a market-based reference crack.

因此，儘管該市場可能受到挑戰，但請記住，捕獲是相對於基於市場的參考裂縫而言的。

And so we take into account where the market is at and putting that together, and we performed pretty well relative to that reference.

因此，我們考慮了市場狀況並將其放在一起，相對於該參考，我們的表現相當不錯。

Jean Salisbury, Bank of America.

吉恩·索爾茲伯里，美國銀行。

You referenced the growing OPEC supply next year.

您提到了明年歐佩克供應量的成長。

This primarily benefits Valero and heavy sour crude, but I believe also in some of the high sulfur intermediate margins, that you consume as feedstocks.

這主要有利於瓦萊羅原油和重質高硫原油，但我相信也有利於作為原料消耗的一些高硫中間體利潤。

Can you just go over the different ways that increasing OPEC supply could manifest in different markets and your exposure there?

您能否簡單介紹一下歐佩克供應增加在不同市場中可能體現的不同方式以及您在那裡的風險敞口？

Yeah.

是的。

So we see several bright spots in terms of supply fundamentals around heavy sour crude.

因此，我們在重質高硫原油的供應基本面方面看到了幾個亮點。

Obviously, OPEC, 180,000 barrels a day on the market starting in December.

顯然，OPEC 從 12 月開始每天向市場供應 18 萬桶石油。

Seasonally, we expect Canadian production to ramp up as well.

從季節性來看，我們預期加拿大的產量也會增加。

We think Canadian production could hit record highs over the winter.

我們認為加拿大產量可能在冬季創下歷史新高。

Then you have continued Venezuelan production growth, and this time of year, you get to where you're past the period of time in the Middle East where they're burning fuel oil for power generation.

然後委內瑞拉的產量持續成長，每年的這個時候，你會經歷中東燃燒燃油發電的時期。

So all that puts more barrels on the market.

因此，所有這些都將更多的石油投放到市場上。

If you get into the first quarter and Lyondell shuts down, it takes some demand as way as well.

如果進入第一季度，Lyondell 關閉，也會需要一些需求。

So those things should be positive in terms of quality discounts.

因此，就品質折扣而言，這些事情應該是正面的。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

喬‧萊奇，摩根士丹利。

So I wanted to go back to the RD side, and it continues to be a tougher margin environment for the industry overall to margins recently.

所以我想回到研發方面，最近整個產業的利潤率環境仍然更加嚴峻。

As we look towards 2025, could you just talk to how you're thinking about the moving pieces around credits, including RINs, LCFS prices as well as feedstock costs as it relates to profitability?

當我們展望 2025 年時，您能否談談您如何看待信貸方面的變化，包括 RIN、LCFS 價格以及與盈利能力相關的原料成本？

Sure.

當然。

This is Eric.

這是埃里克。

The -- it looks like a lot of good tailwinds start in 2025.

看起來 2025 年將會出現很多好的順風車。

So California intends to approve their LCFS modifications November 8, with the intent of starting that January 1, that should tighten the credit bank through 2025 and increase LCFS prices.

因此，加州打算在 11 月 8 日批准他們的 LCFS 修改，並打算從 1 月 1 日開始，這應該會在 2025 年之前收緊信貸銀行並提高 LCFS 價格。

You've got that.

你已經做到了。

You've got Europe and UK starting their fit for 55 which starts the SAF mandate of 2% in that region.

歐洲和英國已開始調整 55%，SAF 在該地區的授權比例為 2%。

We're watching the Canadian BC election very closely to see what they do with the CFR, but nationally, that will still be in play in 2025.

我們正在密切關注加拿大 BC 省選舉，以了解他們如何處理 CFR，但在全國範圍內，這仍將在 2025 年發揮作用。

And all these obligations naturally ratchet as you go into next year.

當你進入明年時，所有這些義務自然會逐漸增加。

And then lastly, the IRA with the switch from the blenders tax credit to the production tax credit does create a lot of tailwind for us because that will switch from $1 for everyone to a CI base where we're the most advantaged and it does not allow importers to qualify for the credit.

最後，IRA 從攪拌機稅收抵免轉變為生產稅收抵免，確實為我們創造了很多順風，因為這將從每個人 1 美元轉變為我們最有優勢的 CI 基地，但它並沒有允許進口商有資格獲得信貸。

So if you look at those two benefits of the IRA, that is a good tailwind for DGD.

因此，如果你看看 IRA 的這兩個好處，這對 DGD 來說是一個很好的推動力。

Those things are all on paper that's waiting for a lot of policy clarification between now and the end of the year.

這些事情都在紙上，等待從現在到今年年底的大量政策澄清。

But the one thing we look at is that is the policy intent of all those programs.

但我們關注的一件事是所有這些計劃的政策意圖。

And most of those take legislative action to change.

其中大多數都採取立法行動來改變。

And so that, we think, will be difficult and that means those policies will probably go forward as designed at least initially.

因此，我們認為，這將是困難的，這意味著這些政策可能至少會按照最初的設計進行。

So we're all waiting on seeing how that develops in the next couple of months.

因此，我們都在等待未來幾個月的發展。

I think the whole renewables segment is all asking for this guidance to be given so that we can move forward with plans.

我認為整個再生能源領域都要求提供這項指導，以便我們能夠推進計劃。

But all of that looks pretty constructive.

但所有這些看起來都非常有建設性。

On the feedstock side, we've mostly seen prices equilibrate.

在原料方面，我們基本上看到價格趨於平衡。

There was previously a lot of advantage in foreign feedstocks.

此前國外原料有很多優勢。

We've seen that largely equilibrate.

我們已經看到這基本上是平衡的。

We've seen the market really level out a lot of the price lag we've talked about for the last several months has evened out.

我們已經看到市場確實趨於平穩，過去幾個月我們談到的價格落後已經趨於平穩。

So I think what you're seeing is the world is recognizing that waste oils are still the most advantaged.

所以我認為你看到的是世界正在認識到廢油仍然是最有優勢的。

Our partnership with Darling still gives us the most advantaged access to domestic feedstock and some of their foreign feedstock that they now produce out of South America and Europe, all of that looks advantaged.

我們與 Darling 的合作關係仍然使我們能夠最有利地獲得國內原料以及他們現在從南美和歐洲生產的一些外國原料，所有這些看起來都很有利。

And as we see vegetable oil and BD are going to be marginal going forward, and that will set a floor in this whole space.

正如我們所看到的，植物油和 BD 未來將處於邊緣地位，這將為整個領域奠定基礎。

So as the blenders tax credit goes away, BD will be significantly underwater without an adjustment to the RINs.

因此，隨著攪拌機稅收抵免的取消，如果不調整 RIN，BD 將嚴重陷入困境。

So the last piece that I think is positive is the expectation that RINs will have to go up to offset the loss that BD and vegetable oil RD takes as we migrate to the PTC.

因此，我認為最後一個積極的因素是，當我們遷移到 PTC 時，RIN 必須上漲，以抵消 BD 和植物油 RD 造成的損失。

So there's a lot of expectation that RINs will increase.

因此，人們對 RIN 將會增加抱持著很大的期望。

That won't happen overnight, but if that does, it is a significant tailwind to DGD and RD.

這不會在一夜之間發生，但如果真的發生，這對 DGD 和 RD 來說將是一個重要的推動力。

Great. there.

偉大的。那裡。

And then I just wanted to ask on the naphtha side, specifically, exports out of the Gulf Coast has been strong in the past couple of months, which I think has been supportive of margins.

然後我只想問石腦油方面，具體來說，過去幾個月墨西哥灣沿岸的出口一直強勁，我認為這支撐了利潤率。

What are you seeing on your side?

你在你身邊看到了什麼？

And how are you thinking about the outlook for naphtha here?

您如何看待這裡石腦油的前景？

Yes.

是的。

So I think there's a couple of things driving the relative strength in naphtha.

因此，我認為有幾個因素推動了石腦油的相對強勢。

Some of that is with the economic run cuts of some of the hydroskimmers, you see less naphtha in the market.

其中一些是由於一些水撇油器的經濟運作減少，市場上的石腦油減少了。

So US Gulf Coast supply has had a step in for that.

因此，美國墨西哥灣沿岸的供應已經介入。

But we're also seeing a bit of a pickup for petrochemical demand for naphtha, which looks to be improving.

但我們也看到石腦油的石化需求回升，而且似乎正在改善。

And so that's also creating some of the export opportunities.

這也創造了一些出口機會。

So we expect it to continue.

所以我們預計它會繼續下去。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Maybe what I know -- Lane, I know how much you love to talk about the concept of capture rate, but it has been -- for the entire sector, it's kind of been steadily declining over the last 18 months.

也許據我所知 - Lane，我知道你有多喜歡談論捕獲率的概念，但對於整個行業來說，捕獲率在過去 18 個月裡一直在穩步下降。

And some of that obviously is just that level of margins coming down.

其中一些顯然只是利潤水準的下降。

But can you maybe talk about some of the things that have been headwinds?

但您能談談一些不利的事情嗎？

And then what needs to happen to see improvements on that?

那麼需要做什麼才能看到改善呢？

And is it is it absolute margins, wider crude differentials, crude backwardation, secondary product pricing improvement.

是絕對利潤率、原油價差擴大、原油現貨溢價、次級產品定價改善。

Any signs of encouragement as you look into the fourth quarter of 2025 in terms of maybe improvements in margin capture.

當您展望 2025 年第四季時，是否有任何鼓舞人心的跡象表明利潤率可能會有所改善。

Yes.

是的。

Ryan, it's Lane.

瑞安，我是萊恩。

Fortunately I get to hand this off to Greg.

幸運的是我把這個交給了格雷格。

Ryan, so I think you noted most of the key factors, and we've talked about some of them already.

Ryan，所以我認為您注意到了大多數關鍵因素，我們已經討論了其中一些因素。

Crude market backwardation certainly has been a bit persistent and strong here, particularly late in 2024 that's certainly a factor.

原油市場現貨溢價肯定有點持續且強勁，尤其是在 2024 年末，這肯定是一個因素。

In fact, I think if you look back in early 2023, we're actually in contango.

事實上，我認為如果你回顧 2023 年初，我們實際上處於期貨溢價狀態。

So there's no doubt that continuing on an ongoing basis is not something you would necessarily expect.

因此，毫無疑問，持續進行下去並不是您所期望的。

So seeing improvement there will help capture.

因此，看到那裡的改進將有助於捕獲。

Thinking about us, in particular, we've talked about heavy maintenance a number of quarters here recently.

特別是考慮到我們，我們最近在這裡討論了多個季度的繁重維護。

So that's definitely a factor more in some regions than others.

因此，這在某些地區肯定比其他地區更重要。

I mean, there's always going to be some maintenance in our system, industry as well.

我的意思是，我們的系統和產業總是需要進行一些維護。

So I think there have been some heavier periods though that have had some impact.

所以我認為有些較嚴重的時期雖然產生了一些影響。

And then you mentioned secondary products.

然後你提到了次級產品。

I think the ones that really come to mind there are those related to pet chem, so things like propylene and naphtha.

我認為真正想到的是那些與寵物化學相關的東西，例如丙烯和石腦油。

And Gary just talked about it.

加里剛剛談到了這件事。

As we're seeing pet chem start to improve expect those values to improve as well, and that's going to have some positive impact on capture.

當我們看到寵物化學開始改善時，預計這些值也會改善，這將對捕獲產生一些積極的影響。

Great.

偉大的。

And then maybe one follow-up on some of your earlier comments on sustainable aviation fuel.

然後也許是您之前關於可持續航空燃料的一些評論的後續行動。

As we think about -- I mean the message over the last couple of years late into this, I think there was clearly an expectation that the market -- the SAF market was going to be undersupplied which was going to be good for you guys.

當我們思考時——我的意思是過去幾年的信息，我認為市場顯然有這樣的預期——SAF 市場將供應不足，這對你們來說是件好事。

There's been a lot of moving pieces in that.

其中有很多動人的部分。

Do you still view the market over the next 12 to 24 months as undersupplied?

您仍然認為未來 12 至 24 個月的市場供應不足嗎？

And then as you think about -- you're probably one of the few domestic producers that can qualify to sell into Europe.

然後，正如您所想，您可能是少數有資格向歐洲銷售的國內生產商之一。

How do you think about the potential optionality of being able to sell into Europe versus kind of domestic markets and pricing here?

您如何看待向歐洲銷售與國內市場和定價的潛在選擇？

Yeah, this is Eric.

是的，這是埃里克。

I think our view is consistent that the market is physically undersupplied, given the ramp in mandates that is occurring over the next year to five years.

我認為我們的觀點是一致的，即考慮到未來一年到五年內需求量的增加，市場實際供應不足。

You're absolutely correct.

你是完全正確的。

Europe will be the most attractive market, and we do have capability of supplying into that market.

歐洲將是最具吸引力的市場，我們確實有能力向該市場供貨。

That will be one of our primary outlets as we start up.

當我們啟動時，這將是我們的主要銷售管道之一。

But I think the policies are always, as I mentioned before, we're waiting for a lot of clarification there.

但我認為，正如我之前提到的，政策總是在等待大量的澄清。

The mandate in Europe is very clear how that will be implemented is waiting on a lot of clarity on guidance for import codes and what duties are affecting it, all these kind of details that make finishing the contract difficult, but we see that as all solvable between now and the end of the year for January 1 compliance.

歐洲的授權非常明確，將如何實施，正在等待進口代碼指導的明確說明以及影響它的關稅，所有這些細節都使完成合約變得困難，但我們認為所有這些都是可以解決的從現在到今年年底1 月1 日合規。

And I think in the US, the IRA clearly favors SAF over RD from a credit standpoint.

我認為在美國，從信用的角度來看，IRA 顯然更傾向於 SAF 而不是 RD。

Again, we're waiting for clarity on that and as well as a lot of our customers and blenders are waiting for clarity so that we can get the contract language perfected.

同樣，我們正在等待這一點的明確，我們的許多客戶和攪拌商也在等待明確，以便我們能夠完善合約語言。

But all of that is moving forward, and we're confident that's going to get solved contractually especially once we get clarity on this policy guidance.

但所有這些都在向前推進，我們相信這將透過合約得到解決，特別是一旦我們明確了這項政策指導。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

尼爾梅塔，高盛。

The first question is just around operating expenses.

第一個問題與營運費用有關。

It's always been a hallmark of Valero is your ability to keep that OpEx low per barrel.

瓦萊羅的一個標誌就是能夠維持每桶較低的營運成本。

Just your perspective on how some of those moving pieces as we move into the next couple of years and how you're thinking about it even geographically as well.

只是您對我們進入未來幾年時一些變化的部分的看法，以及您如何考慮它，甚至在地理上也是如此。

Neil, it's Greg.

尼爾，我是格雷格。

So we keep those expenses under control.

所以我們控制這些費用。

It's one of the things we focus on every day.

這是我們每天關注的事情之一。

A couple of parts, I think, that are probably notable.

我認為有幾個部分可能值得注意。

Energy costs have been low natural gas driving that.

能源成本低是天然氣推動的。

That's been a help.

這是一個幫助。

And so it looks like those prices will move back towards kind of middle of the cycle kind of range here, at least that's what folks are thinking, but that's been helpful.

因此，看起來這些價格將回到週期中間的範圍，至少人們是這麼想的，但這很有幫助。

Inflation has made it a bit harder.

通貨膨脹讓事情變得更加困難。

We've seen the effects of that on both maintenance costs, catalyst chemicals, those kinds of things.

我們已經看到了這對維護成本、催化劑化學品等的影響。

We work hard with our partners to try to make sure we keep those costs competitive.

我們與合作夥伴共同努力，確保我們的成本保持競爭力。

And so as inflation moderates, we'd expect to see some of that improve as well.

因此，隨著通膨放緩，我們預計情況也會有所改善。

Those are probably the two biggest parts to think about and really the things we focus on every day.

這些可能是最需要考慮的兩個部分，也是我們每天關注的事情。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Understood on the energy side.

從能源方面理解。

And then the other one is on just on the Port Arthur coker.

然後另一台就在亞瑟港煉焦爐上運行。

I think when you FID-ed, you talked about $325 million of EBITDA.

我想當您進行 FID 時，您談到了 3.25 億美元的 EBITDA。

And then you talked about it actually run rating closer to $400 million.

然後你談到它的實際評級接近 4 億美元。

How do you think -- as you think about that project specifically about, one, the current economics and then how those economics could evolve as you think about the path back to mid-cycle?

當您具體考慮該專案時，您如何看待當前的經濟狀況，以及當您考慮回到中期週期的路徑時，這些經濟狀況將如何演變？

Yes, Neil, I think we still see that project giving us the returns consistent with what we showed at FID.

是的，尼爾，我認為我們仍然看到該項目給我們帶來的回報與我們在最終投資決定 (FID) 上顯示的回報一致。

The current market is a little different than where we started.

目前的市場與我們開始時略有不同。

We got real good benefits earlier this year when we did the turnaround on the old coker and we expected to see some strong value there.

今年早些時候，當我們對舊焦化器進行改造時，我們獲得了真正的良好效益，我們預計會在那裡看到一些強大的價值。

So I don't think anything has changed in our view.

所以我認為我們的觀點沒有任何改變。

And then again, obviously, that project is hinged on being able to run a lot of heavy sour crude and upgrade it to light products.

顯然，該專案取決於能否運行大量重質高硫原油並將其升級為輕質產品。

And so as those sour differentials move around, that's going to give us a chance to capture some more value.

因此，隨著這些不良差異的變化，這將給我們一個獲得更多價值的機會。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

If I heard correctly, I think the 4.7 million ethanol volume guidance for Q4 might be an all-time record.

如果我沒聽錯的話，我認為第四季 470 萬乙醇產量指引可能是歷史記錄。

And just coming at a time when ethanol margins are really crumbling on paper.

而就在乙醇利潤率在紙上真正崩潰的時候。

So could you help us reconcile that?

那你能幫我們協調一下嗎？

Is that a function of increasing net export opportunities or maybe there's the lag we should be thinking about on the ethanol indicator?

這是增加淨出口機會的函數，還是我們應該考慮乙醇指標的延遲？

Yes, it's Eric.

是的，這是埃里克。

We have increased our ethanol production capability this year.

今年我們增加了乙醇生產能力。

Most of this year has been pretty positive for that expanded capability.

在今年的大部分時間裡，這種能力的擴展都非常積極。

We have also expanded our export markets.

我們也擴大了出口市場。

Again, talking about policy, there's interest in US. ethanol, especially a lot of our ISCC qualified ethanol in Europe.

再次，談到政策，人們對美國感興趣。乙醇，特別是我們在歐洲有許多 ISCC 合格的乙醇。

We also see that because of US corn being the most attractive feedstock in the US with the largest carryout, one of the largest harvests we've ever seen, it is giving a lot of opportunity for ethanol exports.

我們也看到，由於美國玉米是美國最具吸引力的原料，其結轉量最大，是我們所見過的最大收成之一，這為乙醇出口提供了許多機會。

So that's what we're seeing as increased demand.

這就是我們所看到的需求增加。

We're seeing new markets for E10 in the world, and we see Brazil is increasing its ethanol mandate as well as the SAF mandate beginning in '25.

我們看到世界上 E10 的新市場，我們看到巴西正在增加其乙醇授權以及從 25 年開始的 SAF 授權。

So we've grown our capacity in anticipation of a lot of this expanded interest globally in ethanol.

因此，我們預計全球對乙醇的興趣將不斷擴大，因此我們已經提高了產能。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

And then there's been more chatter lately about just increasing global tariffs and exports are a big part of the outlet for US refiners.

最近，關於提高全球關稅的討論越來越多，而出口是美國煉油商出口的重要組成部分。

So when you hear about the potential for just blanket increases in tariffs, what do you think?

那麼，當您聽到有可能全面提高關稅時，您有何看法？

Is that a concern going forward?

這是未來的一個擔憂嗎？

This is Rich Walsh.

這是里奇·沃爾什。

I'll take an effort to answer that.

我會努力回答這個問題。

I mean, when you look at those tariffs, a lot of times, they're really focused around manufactured goods.

我的意思是，當你看到這些關稅時，很多時候，它們實際上都集中在製成品上。

Most countries don't want to increase their cost of energy that they're trying to take in.

大多數國家不想增加他們試圖吸收的能源成本。

So when you think about targets for tariffs, they normally don't really wrap around energy.

因此，當你考慮關稅目標時，它們通常不會真正圍繞能源。

And so I don't know that we see the concerns on that.

所以我不知道我們是否看到了對此的擔憂。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

賈森·加貝爾曼，TD·考恩。

I wanted to circle back on the financial framework, and you provided some helpful comments about the return of capital metrics being a firm target.

我想回顧一下財務框架，您提供了一些關於資本回報指標作為堅定目標的有用評論。

And I'm wondering how you think about using the balance sheet in a downturn.

我想知道您如何看待在經濟低迷時期使用資產負債表。

You have this $4 billion kind of target for cash for the balance sheet.

資產負債表的現金目標是 40 億美元。

Is that what you want headed into a downturn so you could lean on the balance sheet a bit more should the market weaken?

這是否是您希望在經濟低迷時期出現的情況，以便在市場走弱時您可以更多地依靠資產負債表？

Yes.

是的。

This is Jason.

這是傑森。

I'll be glad to share some of our thoughts about cash.

我很樂意分享我們對現金的一些想法。

And our targeted cash balance will depend on the environment we're in, but in a normalized environment, we like to keep a cash balance between $4 billion to $5 billion as a guideline.

我們的目標現金餘額將取決於我們所處的環境，但在正常化的環境中，我們希望將現金餘額保持在 40 億至 50 億美元之間作為指導方針。

And as you know, cash to move around a lot in any quarter due to things like working capital, but we're not going to hoard cash.

如您所知，由於營運資金等原因，現金在任何季度都會大量流動，但我們不會囤積現金。

So I think directionally, you should expect our cash balance to trend down a little from here.

因此，我認為從方向上看，您應該預計我們的現金餘額會從現在開始略有下降。

I'd also like to note, if it wasn't for the positive impact from working capital this quarter, we would have drawn cash by over $200 million.

我還想指出的是，如果沒有本季營運資金的正面影響，我們將提取超過 2 億美元的現金。

We also had strong buybacks for the quarter of $565 million without leaning on the balance sheet.

在不依賴資產負債表的情況下，我們本季也進行了 5.65 億美元的強勁回購。

But to answer your question more directly, yes, you're right, that $4 billion gives us a lot more room and flexibility in the downturn to continue our approach to buybacks.

但更直接地回答你的問題，是的，你是對的，40 億美元為我們在經濟低迷時期提供了更多的空間和靈活性，以繼續我們的回購方式。

So I think that's correct.

所以我認為這是正確的。

It's a big factor in coming out with a $4 billion number.

這是能夠達到 40 億美元這個數字的重要因素。

Great.

偉大的。

And then the other just on the market.

然後另一個剛上市。

We've noticed a pretty strong product exports for gasoline and diesel, out of the US, and it's coming as fracs have fallen a bit here the past months.

我們注意到美國的汽油和柴油產品出口相當強勁，而過去幾個月這裡的壓裂價格略有下降。

And so it seems like prices are needing to fall to clear the US market and keep US inventories at healthy levels.

因此，價格似乎需要下跌才能出清美國市場並將美國庫存保持在健康水準。

Is that a fair interpretation of what's going on in the market where there's kind of a push from the US on product exports rather than a pull from international sources on those products?

這是對市場上正在發生的事情的公平解釋嗎？

Well, it's a good question.

嗯，這是一個好問題。

It would appear that what you're saying is correct.

看來你說的是對的。

But in the face of that, gasoline inventories are really pretty low.

但面對這一點，汽油庫存確實相當低。

We're 10 million barrels below where we were last year.

我們的產量比去年減少了 1000 萬桶。

You are below the five-year average.

你低於五年平均。

So the inventories wouldn't indicate a need to push.

因此，庫存並不表示需要推動。

It would almost seem like it's more of a pull, and we're getting an export premium, and that's why the barrels are flowing.

這幾乎看起來更像是一種拉力，我們獲得了出口溢價，這就是桶流動的原因。

Okay.

好的。

And when you say you're getting an export premium, you're able to sell to international markets at a higher price than what you're selling at on, say, the US Gulf Coast?

當您說您獲得了出口溢價時，您是否能夠以比您在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的銷售價格更高的價格向國際市場銷售？

Yes, we are.

是的，我們是。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments.

現在，我想將發言權交還給 Bhullar 先生以供結束發言。

Thank you, Donna.

謝謝你，唐娜。

We appreciate everyone joining us today.

我們感謝今天加入我們的所有人。

As always, please feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions.

一如既往，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。

Have a great day, everyone.

祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event.

女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines or log off at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

此時您可以斷開線路或註銷，然後享受剩下的一天。