瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Unidentified_1

    Unidentified_1

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So thanks.

    所以謝謝。

  • No, no, greetings, and welcome to Valero Energy Corp. Third Quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

    不,不,問候,歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

  • At this time, all participants are on a listen only mode.

    此時,所有參與者都處於僅監聽模式。

  • A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

    正式演講後將舉行問答環節。

  • If anyone require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone key pad.

    如果有人在會議期間需要接線員幫助,請按下電話鍵盤上的星號零。

  • Has a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    有提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • It is now President, Investor Relations and Finance.

    現在是投資者關係和財務總裁。

  • Thank you may begin.

    謝謝你可以開始了。

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's Third Quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

    大家早安,歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

  • With me today are Lane Riggs, our CEO and President, Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO, Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO, and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

    今天與我在一起的有我們的執行長兼總裁Lane Riggs、我們的執行副總裁兼財務長Jason Fraser、我們的執行副總裁兼營運長Gary Simmons 以及Valero 高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

  • If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investor. valero.com.

    如果您尚未收到收益報告並想要一份副本,您可以在我們的投資者網站上找到一份副本。瓦萊羅.com。

  • Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call.

    收益發布中還附有表格,提供有關我們業務部門的額外財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的調節和揭露。

  • If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

    如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問,請隨時在電話會議後聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

  • I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release.

    現在我想請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。

  • In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the Company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions under federal securities laws.

    總之,它表示,新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述,旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。

  • There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

    有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同,包括我們在收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的因素。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Elaine for opening remarks.

    現在我將把電話轉給伊萊恩致開幕詞。

  • Thank you, Howard, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,霍華德,大家早安。

  • Our third quarter results reflect a period of heavy maintenance in our refining segment during a relatively weak margin environment

    我們的第三季業績反映了在利潤率相對疲軟的環境下煉油部門進行了大量維護的時期

  • .

  • Our refineries operated 90% throughput capacity utilization in line with our guidance for the quarter.

    我們的煉油廠產能利用率為 90%,符合我們本季的指導。

  • Solid demand across the system remains strong with our US wholesale volumes exceeding 1 million barrels per day for the second consecutive quarter.

    整個系統的需求仍然強勁,我們的美國批發量連續第二季超過每天 100 萬桶。

  • On the strategic front, we remain committed to executing projects to continue to enhance the earnings capability of our business and expand our long-term competitive advantage.

    在策略方面,我們仍然致力於執行項目,以繼續增強我們業務的獲利能力並擴大我們的長期競爭優勢。

  • I'm proud to report that the Diamond Green Diesel, sustainable aviation fuel or fast project of now mechanically complete and is in the process of starting up.

    我很自豪地報告,鑽石綠色柴油、永續航空燃料或快速專案現已機械完成並正在啟動過程中。

  • The project was completed on schedule and under budget and is a testament to the strength of our projects and operations teams.

    該專案按計劃並在預算範圍內完成,證明了我們專案和營運團隊的實力。

  • On the financial side, we continue to honor our commitment to shareholder returns.

    在財務方面,我們持續履行對股東回報的承諾。

  • The strong payout ratio of 84% for the quarter and the year to date payout of 81%.

    本季派息率為 84%,年初至今股利發放率為 81%。

  • Looking ahead, improving diesel demand against the backdrop of low light product inventory should support refining margins.

    展望未來,在輕質產品庫存低的背景下,柴油需求的改善應會支撐煉油利潤。

  • Increases in OPEC plus crude supply should widen our sour crude oil differentials and further increase margins.

    歐佩克加上原油供應的增加應會擴大我們的含硫原油價差並進一步增加利潤。

  • And longer term, we expect product demand exceeds supply with the announced refinery shutdowns next year, unlimited capacity additions beyond 2025, supporting long-term refining fundamentals.

    從長遠來看,我們預計,隨著明年煉油廠宣布關閉、2025 年後產能無限增加,產品需求將超過供應,這將支撐長期煉油基本面。

  • In closing, our focus on operational excellence, capital discipline and honoring our commitment to shareholder returns has served us well and will continue to anchor our strategy going forward.

    最後,我們對卓越營運、資本紀律和履行對股東回報的承諾的關注對我們很有幫助,並將繼續鞏固我們的未來策略。

  • So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

    那麼,荷馬,我會把電話轉給你。

  • Thanks, Lane.

    謝謝,萊恩。

  • For the third of 2024.

    2024 年第三天。

  • Net income attributable to Valero stockholders was 364 million or $1.14 per share compared to $2.6 billion or $7.49 per share for the third quarter of 2023.

    歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨利潤為 3.64 億美元,即每股 1.14 美元,而 2023 年第三季為 26 億美元,即每股 7.49 美元。

  • The refining segment reported 565 million of operating income for the third quarter of 2024 compared to 3.4 billion for the third quarter of 2023.

    煉油部門報告 2024 年第三季營業收入為 5.65 億美元,而 2023 年第三季為 34 億美元。

  • Refining throughput volumes in the third quarter of 2024 averaged 2.9 million barrels per day or 90% throughput capacity utilization, refining cash operating expenses, or $4.73 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024.

    2024 年第三季的煉油吞吐量平均為每天 290 萬桶,即吞吐量利用率為 90%,煉油現金營運費用為 2024 年第三季每桶 4.73 美元。

  • Renewable diesel segment operating income was $35 million for the third quarter of 2024 compared to $123 million for the third quarter of 2023.

    2024 年第三季再生柴油部門的營業收入為 3,500 萬美元,而 2023 年第三季為 1.23 億美元。

  • Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 3.5 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2024, which was 552,000 gallons per day higher than the third quarter of 2023.

    2024 年第三季再生柴油銷售平均每天 350 萬加侖,比 2023 年第三季每天增加 552,000 加侖。

  • The ethanol segment reported 153 million of operating income for the third quarter of 2024 compared to 197 million for the third quarter of 2023.

    乙醇部門報告 2024 年第三季營業收入為 1.53 億美元,而 2023 年第三季為 1.97 億美元。

  • Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.6 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2024, which was 255,000 gallons per day higher than the third quarter of 2023.

    2024 年第三季乙醇產量平均為 460 萬加侖/天,比 2023 年第三季增加了 255,000 加侖/天。

  • For the third quarter of 2020, for G&A expenses were 234 million.

    2020 年第三季度,一般管理費用為 2.34 億美元。

  • Net interest expense was $141 million.

    淨利息支出為 1.41 億美元。

  • Depreciation and amortization expense was 600 to $85 million and income tax expense was $96 million.

    折舊和攤提費用為 6 億至 8,500 萬美元,所得稅費用為 9,600 萬美元。

  • The effective tax rate was 20%.

    有效稅率為20%。

  • Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.3 billion in the third quarter of 2024.

    2024 年第三季經營活動提供的淨現金為 13 億美元。

  • Included in this amount was 166 million favorable change in working capital and 47 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD.

    其中包括 1.66 億美元的營運資本有利變化以及 4,700 萬美元的調整後淨現金,這些現金是由與 DGD 的其他合資成員股份相關的經營活動提供的。

  • Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2024.

    排除這些項目,2024 年第三季經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為 11 億美元。

  • Regarding investing activities, we made $429 million of capital investments in the third quarter of 2024, of which 338 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance.

    在投資活動方面,我們在 2024 年第三季進行了 4.29 億美元的資本投資,其中 3.38 億美元用於維持業務,包括週轉成本、催化劑和監管合規成本。

  • And the balance was for growing the business, excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD. and other variable interest entities.

    餘額用於發展業務,不包括歸屬於 DGD 其他合資企業成員份額的資本投資。和其他可變利益實體。

  • Capital investments attributable to Valero were $394 million in the third quarter of 2024.

    2024 年第三季度,瓦萊羅的資本投資為 3.94 億美元。

  • Moving to financing activities, we returned 907 million to our stockholders in the third quarter of 2024, of which $342 million was paid as dividends and 500, 65 million was for the purchase of approximately 3.8 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 84% for the quarter.

    轉向融資活動,我們在 2024 年第三季度向股東返還 9.07 億美元,其中 3.42 億美元作為股息支付,500、6500 萬美元用於購買約 380 萬股普通股,從而產生了派息率本季度為84%。

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Year to date, we have returned 3.7 billion to our stockholders in the form of dividends and buybacks, resulting in a payout ratio of 81%, well above our long-term minimum commitment of 40% to 50%.

    今年迄今,我們以股息和回購的形式向股東返還 37 億美元,股息率為 81%,遠高於我們 40% 至 50% 的長期最低承諾。

  • In fact, since the start of 2021, our total cash flows from operations have exceeded our total uses of cash over this period, including capital investments over $4 billion of debt reduction and over 18 billion returned to stockholders through dividends and share buybacks.

    事實上,自 2021 年初以來,我們的營運現金流總額已經超過了同期的現金使用總額,其中包括超過 40 億美元的債務削減資本投資,以及透過股息和股票回購向股東返還超過 180 億美元。

  • With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $8.4 billion of total debt, 2.5 billion of finance lease obligations and $5.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents.

    就我們的資產負債表而言,本季末我們的債務總額為 84 億美元,融資租賃債務為 25 億美元,現金和現金等價物為 52 億美元。

  • The debt to capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 17% as of September 30th, 2024, and we we ended the quarter well capitalized with 5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

    截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日,扣除現金及現金等價物後的負債與資本比率為 17%,本季末資本充足,可用流動資金為 53 億美元(不含現金)。

  • Turning to guidance, we still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2024 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance and joint venture investments.

    談到指導,我們仍然預計 2024 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元,其中包括週轉、催化劑、監管合規和合資企業投資的支出。

  • About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balanced growth with approximately half of the growth capital towards our low carbon fuels businesses and have towards refining projects.

    其中約 16 億美元用於維持業務和平衡成長,其中約一半的成長資本用於我們的低碳燃料業務和煉油項目。

  • For modeling.

    用於建模。

  • Our fourth quarter operations wheeling mangers Gulf Coast at 1.83 to 1.8 million barrels per day, Mid-Continent at 425 to 445,000 barrels per day.

    我們第四季的作業量為墨西哥灣沿岸每天 183 至 180 萬桶,中部大陸為每天 425 至 445,000 桶。

  • West Coast at 230 to 250,000 barrels per day and North Atlantic at 300 to 80 to 400,000 barrels per day.

    西海岸為每天 230 至 250,000 桶,北大西洋為每天 300 至 80 至 400,000 桶。

  • We expect refining cash operating expenses in the fourth quarter to be approximately $4.60 per barrel.

    我們預計第四季煉油現金營運支出約為每桶 4.60 美元。

  • With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we still expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2020.

    對於再生柴油領域,我們仍預計 2020 年將銷售量約為 12 億加侖。

  • For operating expenses in 2024 should be $0.45 per gallon, which includes $0.18 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

    2024 年的營運費用應為每加侖 0.45 美元,其中包括每加侖 0.18 美元的非現金成本,例如折舊和攤提。

  • Our final segment is expected to produce 4.7 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter.

    我們的最後一個部分預計第四季每天生產 470 萬加侖。

  • Operating expenses should average $0.37 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

    營運費用平均為每加侖 0.37 美元,其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本,例如折舊和攤提。

  • For the fourth quarter, net interest expense should be about $140 million and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately 690 million.

    第四季淨利息支出應約為 1.4 億美元,總折舊和攤提費用應約為 6.9 億美元。

  • For 2024, we expect G&A expenses to be approximately 975 million.

    2024 年,我們預計一般管理費用約為 9.75 億美元。

  • That concludes our opening remarks.

    我們的開場白就到此結束。

  • Before we open the call to questions, please limit each turn into terminated.

    在我們開始提問之前,請限制每個回合的終止。

  • two questions.

    兩個問題。

  • If you have more than two questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

    如果您有兩個以上的問題,請在時間允許的情況下重新加入佇列,以確保其他來電者有時間提問。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The floor is now open for questions.

    現在可以提問。

  • If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.

    如果您想提問,請按電話鍵盤上的星號一。

  • At this time.

    此時。

  • A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue, you may press star two.

    確認音將表示您的線路已在問題佇列中,您可以按星號二。

  • If you would like to remove your question, the Q&A for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys.

    如果您想刪除您的問題,即使用揚聲器裝置的參與者的問答,則可能需要在按星號鍵之前拿起聽筒。

  • That's star one to register a question at this time.

    這是此時登記問題的首要任務。

  • Today's first question is coming from Manav Gupta of UBS.

    今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • So you're more imminent.

    所以你更迫在眉睫。

  • All.

    全部。

  • Good morning and good morning, sir.

    早安,早安,先生。

  • My first question here is, can you talk a little bit about the demand for key as we are coming to a close in 2024?

    我的第一個問題是,您能談談 2024 年即將結束時對鑰匙的需求嗎?

  • Sure, Manav, this is Gary.

    當然,馬納夫,這是加里。

  • You know, obviously a much weaker refinery margin environment and we know from the third quarter than we've seen the last couple of years on.

    你知道,煉油廠利潤率環境顯然要弱得多,我們從第三季就知道比過去幾年弱得多。

  • The interesting thing does is it looks like the underlying market fundamentals actually improved during the third quarter and have continued to improve as we move into the fourth quarter.

    有趣的是,看起來潛在的市場基本面實際上在第三季度有所改善,並且隨著進入第四季度而繼續改善。

  • Despite that, as you know, the market fundamentals, market sentiment, seized of team turned more negative in driving crack spreads even lower to us in the markets where we have a presence, things look very similar to what we've seen the past couple of years.

    儘管如此,如您所知,市場基本面、市場情緒、團隊的控制變得更加負面,導致我們所在市場的裂解價差甚至更低,情況看起來與我們過去幾年看到的非常相似。

  • Lane had alluded to our sales in the third quarter through wholesale over 1 million barrels a day.

    Lane 曾提到我們第三季的批發銷售量每天超過 100 萬桶。

  • We averaged 1.8 million in the third quarter, which is actually up year over year.

    第三季我們的平均銷量為 180 萬,實際上年比有所成長。

  • Gasoline sales were fairly flat year over year.

    汽油銷量較去年同期持平。

  • Diesel sales actually increased year over year thus far in the fourth quarter, we've actually seen about a 40,000 barrel a day increase in sales to our wholesale channel.

    到目前為止,第四季度柴油銷量實際上同比增長,我們的批發通路銷量實際上每天增加了約 40,000 桶。

  • So it's actually gone up.

    所以實際上已經上漲了。

  • You kind of compare that to get an indication of demand with some other indicators.

    您可以將其與其他一些指標進行比較,以獲得需求指示。

  • You know, vehicle miles traveled were up about 1%.

    您知道,車輛行駛里程增加了約 1%。

  • So that kind of matches with our numbers, even the DOE date, although there's a lot of noise week-to-week, if you look at that year to date, demand numbers from the DOE would kind of show gasoline demand is flat to slightly up.

    因此,這與我們的數據相符,甚至與能源部的數據相符,儘管每週都有很多噪音,但如果你看看當年迄今為止,能源部的需求數據會顯示汽油需求持平或略有下降。

  • And so we think that's kind of where we are.

    所以我們認為這就是我們現在的處境。

  • Again, I said diesel sales in our system up a little bit year over year.

    我再說一遍,我們系統中的柴油銷量比去年同期有所成長。

  • Again, if you look at some of the other indicators of demand, especially the freight indices would indicate, you know, demand for diesel is a little bit softer.

    同樣,如果你看一下其他一些需求指標,尤其是貨運指數,你就會知道,柴油的需求有點疲軟。

  • Compare that to the daily numbers in the year to date daily numbers would show diesel demand down, you know, close to 100,000 barrels a day.

    與今年迄今的每日數據相比,每日數據顯示柴油需求下降,接近每天 10 萬桶。

  • I think we think that's pretty close.

    我認為我們認為這非常接近。

  • Some of that gas demand in about half of that.

    其中一些天然氣需求約佔其中的一半。

  • So net net, I think in the US, we feel like total light products kind of flat to slightly down year over year markets outside the US where we have a significant market presence in Canada, the UK, Mexico, all very similar trends.

    因此,我認為在美國,我們感覺輕質產品總量與美國以外的市場同比持平或略有下降,我們在加拿大、英國、墨西哥擁有重要的市場份額,所有這些趨勢都非常相似。

  • I think all three of those markets have witnessed a year over year growth in gasoline demand year over year growth in jet demand and the decline in diesel demand.

    我認為這三個市場都見證了汽油需求的逐年增長、噴射機需求的逐年增長和柴油需求的下降。

  • So demand looks pretty strong outside those markets.

    因此,這些市場以外的需求看起來相當強勁。

  • We continue to see good export demand on gasoline exports in the third quarter, about 100,000 barrels a day.

    我們繼續看到第三季汽油出口的良好出口需求,約為每天10萬桶。

  • Typical markets, Latin America and Canada.

    典型市場為拉丁美洲和加拿大。

  • Diesel exports in the third quarter were 200, 60,000 barrels a day, again, kind of South America and Europe.

    第三季柴油出口量為每天 200 至 60,000 桶,同樣是南美和歐洲。

  • So we continue to see demand that looks very similar to what we've seen the last couple of years in the markets where we have a strong presence.

    因此,我們繼續看到需求與我們過去幾年在我們擁有強大影響力的市場中看到的非常相似。

  • Perfect.

    完美的。

  • Gettington.

    格廷頓。

  • My quick follow-up is if there are no renewal rate for that appeared in demand, it's mightn't be softer than we had such strong cloud site.

    我的快速跟進是,如果沒有出現需求的續約率,它可能不會比我們擁有如此強大的雲端網站更軟。

  • Why did we suddenly hit this in light of maintenance CapEx on kind of trending below mid-cycle and in that?

    鑑於維護資本支出的趨勢低於週期中期,為什麼我們突然遇到這個問題?

  • And do you see different transient if the demand who is the tax should be able to get back to mid-cycle or maybe even higher?

    如果稅務需求能夠回到週期中期甚至更高,您是否會看到不同的瞬態?

  • Yes, Manav, I would say, you know, some of this typically on the third quarter earnings call, you tend to have a little more negative market sentiment and there's some some reasons for that.

    是的,馬納夫,我想說,你知道,其中一些通常是在第三季的財報電話會議上,你往往會有更多的負面市場情緒,這是有一些原因的。

  • You know, each year around Labor Day, you typically had some hurricane hype in the market that tends to go away.

    你知道,每年勞動節前後,市場上通常會出現一些颶風炒作,但往往會消失。

  • As people view.

    正如人們所見。

  • You're out a hurricane season.

    你已經過了颶風季節。

  • You've gone through RVP transit, you start our review transition on gasoline swelling, the gasoline pool Labor Day kind of marks the end of driving season.

    您已經完成了 RVP 運輸,開始了我們對汽油膨脹的審查過渡,汽油池勞動節標誌著駕駛季節的結束。

  • So you can certainly understand some negative market sentiment around gasoline.

    因此,您當然可以理解圍繞汽油的一些負面市場情緒。

  • And typically the fourth quarter and first quarter tend to be driven more by strength in the distillate cracks.

    通常,第四季和第一季往往更多地受到餾分油裂縫強度的推動。

  • I think we came into this year.

    我想我們進入了今年。

  • And although so, you know, the US economy has been fairly resilient.

    儘管如此,你知道,美國經濟一直相當有彈性。

  • You know, we've seen some pockets of economic weakness throughout the globe, which has driven down diesel demand a little bit and cause the pessimism around diesel cracks.

    你知道,我們已經看到全球範圍內一些地區的經濟疲軟,這導致柴油需求略有下降,並引發了人們對柴油裂縫的悲觀情緒。

  • If you look at where things are, though, you know, the fundamentals look strong and we're going into the year with very low end inventories of gasoline inventory, 10 million barrels below where we were last year at this time and below the 5-year average.

    不過,如果你看看情況,你就會知道,基本面看起來很強勁,今年我們的汽油庫存將非常低,比去年同期低 1000 萬桶,也低於 5 月份的水平。

  • Some of the key things we tend to be focused on in the gasoline markets at this time of year market structure, market structures backwards.

    每年這個時候,我們往往會關注汽油市場的一些關鍵問題:市場結構、市場結構倒退。

  • So there's no incentive to produce and store summer grade gasoline.

    因此沒有動力生產和儲存夏季級汽油。

  • Typically in the fourth quarter of the first quarter, you will have a positive transatlantic Guard, the shift from Europe to New York Harbor, at least on paper that our bridge close those throughout the fourth quarter on export demand for gasoline remained strong and we're seeing good export demand in Latin America.

    通常在第一季第四季度,您將有一個積極的跨大西洋警衛隊,從歐洲轉移到紐約港,至少在紙面上我們的橋樑在整個第四季度關閉了這些,因為汽油的出口需求仍然強勁,我們'我們看到拉丁美洲的出口需求良好。

  • So things look good for gasoline.

    因此,汽油的情況看起來不錯。

  • I don't think you're going to see any big moves in the gas crack anytime soon.

    我認為短期內不會看到天然氣裂縫有任何重大變化。

  • But you know, as long as inventory remains in check, you get back into driving season RVP transition and we respect gas cracks to respond on the distillate side.

    但您知道,只要庫存保持在控制範圍內,您就可以重新進入駕駛季節 RVP 過渡階段,並且我們尊重天然氣裂縫以在餾分油方面做出反應。

  • Again, you know, like gasoline, the key thing is, although we've seen a little bit less demand than we'd hoped for discipline, inventories are trending toward the lows that we've seen the last couple of years.

    再說一次,你知道,就像汽油一樣,關鍵的是,儘管我們看到的需求比我們希望的紀律要少一些,但庫存正趨向於過去幾年的低點。

  • I think you saw economic run cuts throughout parts of the world that took some supply off the market here recently, we've had turnaround activity decreased supply as well.

    我認為您看到世界各地的經濟運行削減,最近導致市場上的一些供應減少,我們的周轉活動也減少了供應。

  • So it put us in a pretty good position heading into winter.

    所以這讓我們在進入冬天時處於一個非常有利的位置。

  • And I think you know, if you have some uptick in demand from heating oil demand with some colder weather, you'll see distillate cracks respond as well.

    我想你知道,如果天氣寒冷,取暖油需求增加,你也會看到餾分油裂解反應。

  • Thank you so much for taking my questions.

    非常感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from Jim Boyle of J P Morgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉姆·博伊爾。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Thanks for taking my question.

    感謝您提出我的問題。

  • So my first question about capital allocation.

    我的第一個問題是關於資本配置的。

  • You were very aggressive on your buyback program in 3Q despite what's been a downtick in cracks.

    儘管出現了一些裂縫,但您在第三季的回購計劃非常積極。

  • You've been pretty clear in your planning work and sort of a mid-cycle and above environment.

    您的規劃工作非常清晰,並且處於中期及以上的環境。

  • But assuming we statements lower margin environment, can you talk about how your approach to returning capital may or may not change in terms about 70s or 80s percent, CFO type range you've been in it?

    但假設我們聲明利潤率較低的環境,您能否談談您的資本返還方法可能會或可能不會改變大約 70% 或 80%,您一直在其中的 CFO 類型範圍?

  • Would you use your balance sheet a little bit?

    您會稍微使用一下您的資產負債表嗎?

  • It will wear parts of the cycle.

    它會磨損循環部件。

  • Good morning, John.

    早安,約翰。

  • This is Jason.

    這是傑森。

  • I'm going to ask Harbir to respond to your question, Susan.

    蘇珊,我要請哈比爾回答你的問題。

  • Hey, John.

    嘿,約翰。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean, I think in this environment we're in and with the strength of our balance sheet, you should absolutely should continue to expect us to be in our content in our posture.

    我的意思是,我認為在我們所處的這種環境下,憑藉我們資產負債表的實力,你絕對應該繼續期望我們保持滿意的姿態。

  • As I mentioned in the opening remarks, you can go back to 20 to sort of 2021.

    正如我在開場白中提到的,你可以回到 20 年前,大概是 2021 年。

  • We've been able to fund all our uses of cash, including capital.

    我們已經能夠為我們所有的現金使用提供資金,包括資本。

  • We've paid down over 4 billion of debt and returned over 18 billion to shareholders over that period all through cash flow from operation nations.

    在此期間,我們透過營運國家的現金流償還了超過 40 億美元的債務,並向股東返還了超過 180 億美元。

  • So turning to where we are now, let me start by reiterating that the 40% to 50% is a minimum commitment, not a target.

    因此,回到我們現在的情況,首先讓我重申,40% 至 50% 是最低承諾,而不是目標。

  • So we're always going to honor that.

    所以我們將永遠尊重這一點。

  • As you noted, we've consistently been well above that despite the pullback in margins.

    正如您所指出的,儘管利潤率有所回落,但我們的業績一直遠高於這一水平。

  • And I think you can attribute that attribute our ability to do that because of our low-cost profit profile and then disciplined use of capital.

    我認為你可以將我們做到這一點的能力歸因於我們的低成本利潤狀況以及對資本的嚴格使用。

  • So given the strength of our balance sheet, our cash position, I think you should rest comfortable that the 40% to 50% will continue to be a floor and all excess free cash flow will go towards buybacks.

    因此,考慮到我們資產負債表的實力和現金狀況,我認為你應該放心,40% 到 50% 將繼續作為下限,所有多餘的自由現金流都將用於回購。

  • Sequentially the color there?

    那裡的顏色依序是?

  • And then my last question is just on California.

    我的最後一個問題是關於加州的。

  • We've got news of a new closure out there, which all other things equal will be a good thing for those who named.

    我們收到了有關新關閉的消息,在其他條件相同的情況下,這對於那些命名的人來說將是一件好事。

  • But there are some new legislative pressures there.

    但那裡存在一些新的立法壓力。

  • And you've also mentioned strategic alternatives.

    您也提到了戰略選擇。

  • I think in your 10 Q, was wondering if you could just give us an update on how you're thinking about continuing to operate the refinery in California and what those strategic alternatives might be.

    我想在您的 10 個問題中,我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您如何考慮繼續運營加州煉油廠的最新情況以及這些戰略替代方案可能是什麼。

  • John Lane.

    約翰萊恩.

  • I'll let Rich start with the job at this time.

    我現在就讓里奇開始工作吧。

  • You know, whether we're in which one of these various policies that the state keeps proposing, you know, coming out of these legislations, so was just kind of have to lap to kind of see how that plays out.

    你知道,無論我們是在國家不斷提出的這些不同政策中的哪一項中,你知道,這些政策都是從這些立法中出來的,所以只是必須要看看它是如何發揮作用的。

  • You know, a lot of these are driven by a lot of political revenue rhetoric that you see, um, you know, coming out of out of the state.

    你知道,其中很多都是由許多政治收入言論驅動的,你知道,這些言論來自該州。

  • And you know, I think when we see that passed from the legislature and the political arena back over to the CEC. for implementation, thank you.

    你知道,我認為當我們看到這一點從立法機關和政治舞台回到中央執行委員會時。以便實施,謝謝。

  • Seem struggle with a lot of these ideas, you know their their their ideas that you know, the sand good politically.

    似乎與很多這些想法作鬥爭,你知道他們的想法,你知道,沙子在政治上很好。

  • But when you start putting them into the market realities, it has the potential to make things even more costly for consumers.

    但當你開始將它們放入市場現實中時,它有可能使消費者的成本變得更高。

  • So that was the reality is that your California policies costs the state a number of refineries, including this most recent announcement.

    因此,事實是,加州的政策讓該州的許多煉油廠付出了代價,包括最近的聲明。

  • And so you can't have policy that that impair supply and than expected to lower prices for coal customers.

    因此,你不能製定損害供應並降低煤炭客戶價格的政策。

  • So consumers.

    所以消費者。

  • So you will recall all of the regulations have a caveat on that require on the CC. to implement it only if they find that the actions will lower costs for consumers.

    因此,您會記得所有法規都對 CC 的這項要求提出了警告。只有當他們發現這些行動會降低消費者的成本時才會實施。

  • And that's that's going to be the challenge for them.

    這對他們來說將是一個挑戰。

  • So and while strategy we've been consistent for over a decade, probably been longer than that in terms of how we manage through the West Coast and is largely driven by California, probably we've minimized strategic CapEx.

    因此,雖然我們的策略十多年來一直保持一致,但就我們如何管理西海岸而言可能比這更長,並且主要是由加州推動的,但我們可能已經最大限度地減少了策略資本支出。

  • We've make sure we maintain a really reliable operation through our maintenance CapEx, which in turn positions us as well for call option on West Coast cracks in Odessa, California is increasing as regulatory pressure on the industry.

    我們確保透過維護資本支出維持真正可靠的運營,這反過來又使我們能夠在加州敖德薩西海岸裂縫的看漲期權中受益,因為該行業的監管壓力正在增加。

  • So it really considering everything at all in all, all options are on the table.

    所以它確實考慮了一切,所有的選擇都在桌面上。

  • So thank you.

    所以謝謝你。

  • The next question is coming from Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • And can you unpack some of the earlier comments on the evolution of our global product supply over the more, I guess, medium to long term and taking into account a continued ramp of facilities abroad as well as plant closures in 2025?

    我想,考慮到海外設施的持續增加以及 2025 年工廠的關閉,您能否解釋一下我們之前關於我們全球產品供應在中長期演變的一些評論?

  • How do you think trends?

    您如何看待趨勢?

  • And do you expect changes in trade flows as a result?

    您預計貿易流量會因此改變嗎?

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Theresa Chen trial, you know.

    特蕾莎·陳(Theresa Chen)審判,你知道。

  • So overall, when we look at 2025, we see about a million 40,000 barrels a day of new refining capacity coming online.

    因此,總體而言,當我們展望 2025 年時,我們會看到每天大約有 100 萬桶 40,000 桶的新煉油產能投入使用。

  • And so our there's about 740,000 barrels a day of refinery closures announced.

    因此,我們宣布每天關閉約 74 萬桶煉油廠。

  • So, you know, net net about a 300,000 barrel a day net capacity additions and then forecast for total, I product demand we're looking at is about an increase of 700,000 barrels a day.

    所以,你知道,淨產能每天大約增加 30 萬桶,然後預測總的,我們正在考慮的產品需求大約每天增加 70 萬桶。

  • So for next year, really it all comes in, you know, it, it becomes about timing.

    所以對於明年,真的一切都會到來,你知道,這變成了時間問題。

  • When do those refineries close?

    這些煉油廠什麼時候關閉?

  • When did the new capacity come online?

    新產能什麼時候上線?

  • So it gives a lot of uncertainty into next year, even the demand side is a little uncertain.

    因此,這給明年帶來了很大的不確定性,甚至需求方面也有一些不確定性。

  • You know, a lot of the economic stimulus in China, how long does it take to come into effect, but we see tightening balances through next year.

    你知道,中國的許多經濟刺激措施需要多長時間才能生效,但我們預計明年就收緊平衡。

  • And then when you get past next year, you kind of have a fairly extended period where when you look at net capacity, the additions and total lead to product demand growth, there's a pretty good gap there.

    然後,當你明年過去時,你會經歷一段相當長的時期,當你觀察淨產能、新增產能和導致產品需求成長的總量時,會發現存在相當大的差距。

  • So we see an extended period with with tighter and tighter balances around the refining margins.

    因此,我們認為煉油利潤的平衡將在很長一段時間內變得越來越緊。

  • Helpful, thank you.

    有幫助,謝謝。

  • And then turning at either to the new renewables plants.

    然後轉向新的再生能源工廠。

  • And we should be able to provide an update on how the SaaS unit and is operating at following its recent in service and any other and commercial discussions to broaden this offering as well your views on the subsidy crisis.

    我們應該能夠提供有關 SaaS 部門最近投入使用後的最新運營情況以及任何其他商業討論,以擴大該產品的範圍,以及您對補貼危機的看法。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Yes, I'd say this is Eric.

    是的,我想說這是艾瑞克。

  • three SaaS.

    三個SaaS。

  • The SaaS startup looks great.

    這家 SaaS 新創公司看起來很棒。

  • As we said in the call, projects finished ahead of schedule and from our original timing that we had for 1Q of next year and finished under under budget.

    正如我們在電話會議中所說,項目比我們原定的明年第一季的時間提前完成,並且在預算範圍內完成。

  • So project execution for Valero have once again demonstrated its exceptional ability to beat expectations.

    因此,瓦萊羅的專案執行再次證明了其超出預期的卓越能力。

  • And then if you expect that performance as we go into full operation.

    然後,如果您期望我們全面投入營運後的表現。

  • So so far, startup looks very good.

    到目前為止,啟動看起來非常好。

  • I don't think we have any doubt it's going to meet its design capability.

    我認為我們毫不懷疑它會滿足其設計能力。

  • And commercially, we're seeing a lot of interest and continued contracting of the product, both from a SBK. standpoint as well as a blended SaaS standpoint.

    在商業上,我們看到了來自 SBK 的大量興趣和對該產品的持續承包。立場以及混合 SaaS 立場。

  • And I know, Gary, if you wanted to comment on any of that now I'm not going to go into a lot of details, but there's been some press releases, you know, with some of the airlines Southwest and JetBlue about the contracts that we signed.

    我知道,加里,如果你現在想對此發表評論,我不會透露太多細節,但你知道,西南航空和捷藍航空公司已經發布了一些關於合約的新聞稿我們簽署的。

  • In addition to that, we're dealing with freight carriers been an announcement with DHL, so you're not going to go into a lot of the commercial details there.

    除此之外,我們與貨運承運人打交道是與 DHL 的公告,因此您不會在那裡詳細介紹很多商業細節。

  • But when we made the decision to fund the project, we said we expected it to exceed our minimum return threshold of after tax, 25%, still confident with the contracts we have in place and the volume sold that we'll do that.

    但當我們決定為該項目提供資金時,我們表示預計該項目將超過稅後 25% 的最低迴報門檻,但我們仍然對我們現有的合約和銷售量充滿信心,相信我們會做到這一點。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from Doug Leggate of Wolfe Research.

    下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Doug Leggate。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • I appreciate you taking my questions guys.

    我很感謝你們回答我的問題。

  • Gary, I wonder if I could go back to the balances question.

    加里,我想知道我是否可以回到餘額問題。

  • I know it's an imperfect imprecise assessment that we're all trying to make here, but but I wanted to use the lateral as an example.

    我知道這是一個不完美的、不精確的評估,我們都試著在這裡做出,但我想用橫向作為例子。

  • Um, I look back at your obviously your mechanical availability has been one of the hallmarks of the investment case 2018, third quarter, 99% from 1994% pre-COVID, 20% to 95%, 95% last year.

    嗯,我回顧一下,顯然你們的機械可用性是 2018 年第三季投資案例的標誌之一,從 1994 年新冠疫情前的 99%,到 20% 到 95%,去年為 95%。

  • My point is that you guys have obviously got a lot of upside to your potential utilization.

    我的觀點是,你們的潛在利用率顯然有很大的上升空間。

  • And the same is probably true them of anyone who's cutting runs at this point, Singapore or whatever.

    對於任何在這一點上減少跑步的人來說,無論是新加坡還是其他地方,情況可能也是如此。

  • So when you think about supply additions, what are you assuming for the response of from a potentially oversupplied market raising utilization and some of those more challenge, if I understood and I guess what I'm getting at is not reasonable to assume we didn't want to run the refinery closures before we get back to the above mid-cycle, you were talking about?

    因此,當您考慮供應增加時,您對潛在供過於求的市場提高利用率的反應以及其中一些更具挑戰性的反應有何假設,如果我理解並且我猜我所得到的假設我們沒有這樣做是不合理的在我們回到上面的中期週期之前,你不想關閉煉油廠嗎?

  • Yes, we look at historic refinery utilization rates and we look at the balances and kind of assume it's going to be in line with historic utilization rates.

    是的,我們查看了歷史煉油廠利用率,我們查看了餘額,並假設它將與歷史利用率保持一致。

  • However, you know, I do think you can see a lot of refining capacity in the world that underwater, some of that is in need of a lot of capital investment.

    然而,我確實認為你可以在水下世界看到大量的煉油能力,其中一些需要大量的資本投資。

  • And so I think you will see additional rigs, binary closures as well.

    因此,我認為您還會看到更多的鑽孔機、二元閉合裝置。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So I guess to be, is that something you'd keep you have any insight to or are you guessing?

    所以我想,這是你會保持你有洞察力的東西還是你在猜測?

  • No, we can't name refiners that would close, but you can kind of see that refiners that are under pressure on some in Europe, some in the Far East.

    不,我們無法說出將關閉的煉油廠的名稱,但您可以看到歐洲的一些煉油廠和遠東的一些煉油廠面臨壓力。

  • And, you know, our expectation is you'll see some additional announced closures coming China.

    而且,您知道,我們的預期是您會看到中國將有更多宣布關閉。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Well that on the topic, as my follow-up is you don't mind and that's come back to your comments about California.

    好吧,關於這個主題,我的後續行動是你不介意,這又回到了你對加州的評論。

  • I mean, obviously, we've had some on ABX to one, I guess is it the title of it, the inventory question, and it seems that on wind Phillips 66 shutdown deal, there was an equal and opposite impact from imports seems to offset any potential tightened in the West Coast to, um.

    我的意思是,很明顯,我們已經對 ABX 進行了一些討論,我想這就是它的標題,庫存問題,而且似乎在風能菲利普斯 66 停產交易中,進口似乎產生了同等且相反的影響抵消西海岸收緊的任何潛力,嗯。

  • So I guess as you look at your portfolio overall and particularly the West Coast on, how do you see the cost competitiveness?

    所以我想當你審視你的整體投資組合,特別是西海岸時,你如何看待成本競爭力?

  • Is the only asset and the only area in your portfolio that lost money this year to this this past quarter as possible on any color you can give on how you're thinking about, Paul, fully adjustments going forward on a value play and sort of alluded to before is clearly our highest profit structure operation.

    是你的投資組合中今年到上個季度盡可能虧損的唯一資產和領域,你可以根據你的想法給出任何顏色,保羅,在價值遊戲方面進行全面調整,以及某種程度的調整。到的顯然是我們最高利潤的結構操作。

  • Historically, they've had been challenged with respect to cost of crude that we think about OpEx, the regulatory environment and the supply situation in the West Coast in out of the challenging.

    從歷史上看,他們在原油成本、營運支出、監管環境和西海岸的供應狀況等方面都面臨挑戰。

  • So in very different than maybe some of the other areas that we operate.

    因此,這可能與我們經營的其他一些領域非常不同。

  • And again, what we've historically done is tried to position the assets to be a call option for when things get out of balance because the supply chain so on.

    再說一遍,我們歷史上所做的就是嘗試將資產定位為看漲期權,以應對因供應鏈等原因而失去平衡的情況。

  • So with respect to these regulations will just have to see what we actually tried to do, but clearly the California regulatory environments, putting pressure on operators out there and how they might think about going forward with their operations current, we'll keep watching guys.

    因此,就這些法規而言,我們只需要看看我們實際上試圖做什麼,但顯然加州的監管環境給營運商帶來了壓力,以及他們如何考慮繼續當前的運營,我們將繼續關注他們。

  • Thanks for taking my question.

    感謝您提出我的問題。

  • Appreciate it.

    欣賞它。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Yes, thanks.

    是的,謝謝。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Tom, I'm going to come back and hammering the California question as well.

    湯姆,我也會回來討論加州問題。

  • The most recent 10 K and 10 Q you put out you've highlighted issues with California from our asset value or an ongoing concern kind of question with Philips closing down their unit or announcing the closure of their unit, California, obviously hypersensitive about the pace of fuels to consumers regardless of what their policy may do you think going forward, if you have to make a hard decision on a California and refining unit that someone else went first, I mean, sort of does it invite more political interference and how would that work for?

    您最近發布的 10 K 和 10 Q 突出顯示了我們資產價值中與加利福尼亞州有關的問題,或者是飛利浦關閉其部門或宣布關閉其部門的持續關注問題,加利福尼亞州顯然對步伐高度敏感向消費者提供燃料,無論他們的政策如何,如果你必須對加州和煉油廠做出艱難的決定,而其他人首先這樣做,我的意思是,這是否會引起更多的政治幹預,以及如何那是為了什麼?

  • I mean, I don't I don't know that that really factors into our thinking necessarily.

    我的意思是,我不知道這確實會影響我們的思考。

  • I mean, I think what we would be looking at is, you know what, I what are the regulatory programs at California puts forward.

    我的意思是,我認為我們要關注的是,你知道嗎,加州提出了哪些監管計劃。

  • You know, a lot of a lot of these programs are announced.

    你知道,很多這樣的計畫都已經公佈了。

  • I mean, the initial one, the margin cap was announced almost two years ago and that there's still been collecting information and studying the market.

    我的意思是,第一個保證金上限是在大約兩年前宣布的,並且仍在收集資訊和研究市場。

  • I mean, I think one of the one of the realities is there's the market's incredibly efficient until you until you interfere with it.

    我的意思是,我認為現實之一是市場非常高效,直到你幹預它為止。

  • And I think them the California is, I think, starting to realize that, you know, as the more they interfere, the worse, the situation gets.

    我認為加州開始意識到,你知道,他們幹預得越多,情況就會變得越糟。

  • And so that's that's, I think, the challenge there.

    我認為這就是挑戰。

  • So I think we have to wait and see what they're going to do and what they decide.

    所以我認為我們必須等待,看看他們會做什麼以及他們會做出什麼決定。

  • I mean, it's their choice.

    我的意思是,這是他們的選擇。

  • And then we just have to we just have to react to that.

    然後我們只需要對此做出反應。

  • And what others do that's there.

    其他人所做的事情就在那裡。

  • That's their decision.

    這是他們的決定。

  • We have great assets out there and we have great people operating them.

    我們擁有豐富的資產,並且擁有優秀的人才來經營這些資產。

  • So I think I think we like we like our position appreciate that richer more of an optimist in me because I don't really believe they are quite grasp all the impacts of hypotheses in terms of the outcomes.

    所以我認為我們喜歡我們的立場,欣賞我內心更豐富的樂觀主義者,因為我真的不相信他們完全掌握了假設對結果的所有影響。

  • The follow up question.

    後續問題。

  • I'd just like to ask probably to Gary.

    我只是想問加里。

  • Diesel demand does look like it's starting to improve here in the US the last kind of let's call it two months worth.

    美國的柴油需求似乎確實開始改善,我們稱之為兩個月的最後一種改善。

  • Is there anything you're seeing that in terms of DOE. information?

    您在 DOE 方面看到過什麼嗎?資訊?

  • And is there anything you're seeing as you look at that in a more short term basis versus just like your full year commentary carry on demand?

    當您從更短期的角度看待這個問題時,您是否看到了一些東西,而不是像您的全年評論那樣按需進行?

  • I think both gasoline and diesel, we saw a little bit of demand softness and it's picked up as the year's gone on.

    我認為無論是汽油還是柴油,我們都看到了一些需求疲軟,並且隨著時間的推移,需求回升。

  • I mentioned over the last two weeks, we've actually seen a surge in the last two weeks.

    我在過去兩週提到過,我們實際上在過去兩週看到了激增。

  • We have about a 5% year over year increase in diesel demand, kind of consistent with your comments.

    我們的柴油需求年增約 5%,與您的評論有些一致。

  • And I think you're seeing some of that in your Europe as well.

    我認為您在歐洲也看到了其中的一些情況。

  • You can see the two one one in Europe is gone up two or $3 in the last few weeks, kind of indicating that some of that topping capacity, the diesel from some of that hydroskimming and topping capacity is needed to supply.

    你可以看到過去幾週歐洲的二一一價格上漲了兩到三美元,這有點表明需要供應一些頂級產能、來自一些加氫撇油和頂級產能的柴油。

  • The market is things are getting tight heading into winter.

    進入冬季,市場供應變得緊張。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

    下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Hey, guys, good morning.

    嘿,夥計們,早安。

  • I apologize, but add one one two or are they at?

    我很抱歉,但加一二還是他們在?

  • one question is on kind of funny also, I think Gary and I know historically coating that we find that doesn't just shutdown that we find that just because they are not making money a typical day way until that's a substantial CapEx outlay requirement may be a major tenant while before that, they've been a push to make hard decisions just Q2.

    有一個問題也很有趣,我認為加里和我知道歷史上我們發現這不僅僅是關閉,我們發現僅僅因為他們沒有以典型的方式賺錢,直到這是一個巨大的資本支出要求可能是在此之前,他們是主要租戶,他們一直在推動第二季度做出艱難的決定。

  • Is that in your up and ensure we finally, can you say that what that may be the time line, say at what pawn that would be the next major title update that you need to put that you will have to make a decision or that more likely that we'll make you time to have a deficient, but that that is a viable ongoing business or not?

    這是你的意願嗎? ,但這是否是一項可行的持續業務?

  • Then on UK?

    那麼英國呢?

  • Yes, he calls his line volume for.

    是的,他稱其線路音量為。

  • That's a good tried capital that we don't normally provide outlooks with respect to our turnaround activity at your premise is correct.

    這是一個經過考驗的資本,我們通常不會提供有關我們在您的前提下的周轉活動的前景是正確的。

  • I mean, clearly, in not only the cost structure after higher than the cost of the turnaround out there is significant, we hire and so waive any big outlay on turnaround in the West Coast and the way you think about assets going forward, it will in any other asset really in the world.

    我的意思是,顯然,不僅在高於週轉成本之後的成本結構中,我們僱用並因此放棄西海岸週轉的任何巨額支出,以及您對未來資產的看法,它將世界上任何其他資產。

  • That matters largely driven by the next big capital well, but in terms of guidance on and we're going to do our next turnaround, we is the general, Paul.

    這在很大程度上是由下一個大資本井推動的,但就指導和我們將進行下一次扭虧為盈而言,我們是將軍,保羅。

  • We just don't do that.

    我們只是不這樣做。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Understand and you will or that you are locked Atlantic Margin catches in nominated.

    了解並且您將或您被鎖定在指定的大西洋邊緣漁獲量中。

  • And it's interesting because I mean, Europe, the market condition quite finding it difficult.

    這很有趣,因為我的意思是,歐洲的市場狀況相當困難。

  • So is the strong margin capture is really driven by Bill, your Quebec City.

    那麼,強勁的利潤率實際上是由魁北克市比爾推動的。

  • We finally all of that is I mean, Europe is also doing.

    我的意思是,我們最終所有這一切,歐洲也在做。

  • Let's just trying to help us understand.

    讓我們試著幫助我們理解。

  • I mean over the past two or three years, quite frankly, that you are a lot of it then takes off in time.

    坦白說,我的意思是在過去的兩三年裡,你做了很多事情,然後及時起飛。

  • Supplies, that's on the upside.

    供應,這是有利的。

  • So trying to understand what's going on there.

    所以試著了解那裡發生了什麼事。

  • Hey, Paul, it's Greg.

    嘿,保羅,我是格雷格。

  • So you had a couple of things that impacted the North Atlantic in the third quarter.

    第三季有幾件事影響了北大西洋。

  • one, we had some very good results from the commercial team that helped contribute.

    第一,我們從商業團隊的幫助下取得了一些非常好的成果。

  • And then the second thing you talked about Quebec, that really crude cost for that region.

    然後你談到的第二件事是魁北克,該地區的成本非常低。

  • Sometimes it's Quebec, sometimes it's Pembroke, but the crude costs were fairly favorable.

    有時是魁北克,有時是彭布羅克,但原油成本相當優惠。

  • Some of that with some of the Canadian grades coming into pull back, some of that was just the relative value of the grades were running versus Dated Brent.

    其中一些是由於加拿大的一些品級開始回落,其中一些只是與即期布蘭特原油相比的品級的相對價值。

  • And so while that market might have been challenged, remember that either the captures relative to kind of a market based reference crack.

    因此,儘管該市場可能受到挑戰,但請記住,相對於基於市場的參考裂縫的捕獲。

  • And so we take into account and where the markets that have been putting that together, and we performed pretty well relative to that reference.

    因此,我們考慮了將這些因素放在一起的市場,並且相對於該參考,我們的表現相當不錯。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And okay.

    好吧。

  • I think I said oh eight to 2 questions for yourself at And that's it for me.

    我想我在會上為自己說了八到兩個問題,這就是我的問題。

  • We appreciate everybody participating fall.

    我們感謝每個參加秋季活動的人。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from TD account, various Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國各銀行的道明帳戶。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • You referenced the growing OPEC supply next year and is primarily benefits to try and heavy sour gas, but I believe also in some of the high-sulfur intermediate margins and the continuous feed stocks.

    您提到了明年歐佩克供應量的成長,這主要是有利於重酸天然氣的嘗試,但我也相信一些高硫中間體利潤和連續原料庫存。

  • And can you just go over the different ways that increasing OpEx, if I could manifest in different markets and your expense?

    如果我可以在不同的市場和您的費用中體現出來,您能否回顧一下增加營運支出的不同方式?

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So we see several bright spots in terms of supply fundamentals around heavy sour crude unit, obviously, OPEC 180,000 barrels a day on the market starting in December.

    因此,我們在重質高硫原油供應基本面方面看到了幾個亮點,顯然,歐佩克從 12 月開始每天在市場上供應 18 萬桶。

  • On seasonally, we expect Canadian production to ramp up as well.

    從季節性來看,我們預期加拿大產量也會增加。

  • We think Canadian corporate production could hit record highs over the winter.

    我們認為加拿大企業生產可能在冬季創下歷史新高。

  • Then you have continued Venezuelan of production growth.

    然後委內瑞拉的產量繼續成長。

  • And this time a year you get to where you're past the period of time in the Middle East where there where they're burning fuel for power generation.

    每年的這個時候,你都會經歷中東地區燃燒燃料發電的那段時期。

  • So all that puts more barrels on the market.

    因此,所有這些都將更多的石油投放到市場上。

  • You get into the first quarter in line, Dell's just down.

    當你進入第一季時,戴爾的表現只是下滑。

  • It takes them some demand is way as well.

    他們也需要一些需求。

  • So all those things and should be positives in terms of, you know, quality discounts.

    因此,所有這些事情在品質折扣方面應該是積極的。

  • Okay, great.

    好的,太好了。

  • I'll leave it there.

    我會把它留在那裡。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you for this question is coming from John Glass with Morgan Stanley.

    感謝摩根士丹利的約翰·格拉斯提出這個問題。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions.

    早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。

  • So I wanted to go back to the RD. side and it continues to be a tougher market environment for the industry.

    所以我想回到RD。一方面,該產業的市場環境仍然更加嚴峻。

  • Overall the margins up recently as we look towards 2025, could you just talk to how you're thinking about the moving pieces around credits, including winds, LCFS prices as well as our feedstock costs as it relates to profitability?

    總體而言,隨著我們展望 2025 年,最近的利潤率有所上升,您能否談談您如何看待信貸方面的變化,包括風能、LCFS 價格以及與盈利能力相關的原料成本?

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • This is Eric.

    這是埃里克。

  • The it looks like a lot of good tailwinds start in 2025.

    2025 年似乎有很多好的順風車開始。

  • So California intends to approve their LCFS modifications.

    因此加州打算批准他們的 LCFS 修改。

  • November eighth tightened the credit bank through 2025, an increase LCFS prices.

    11 月 8 日銀行收緊信貸直至 2025 年,提高了 LCFS 價格。

  • You've got that you've got Europe and U.K. starting their Fit for 55, which starts to SaaS mandate of 2% in that region for watching the the Canadian BC election very closely to see what they do with the CFR.

    歐洲和英國已經開始了 Fit for 55,該地區開始要求 2% 的 SaaS 授權,以便密切關注加拿大 BC 選舉,看看他們如何處理 CFR。

  • But nationally, that will still be in play in in 2025.

    但在全國範圍內,這種情況到 2025 年仍將發揮作用。

  • And all these obligations naturally ratchet as you go in to next year.

    當你進入明年時,所有這些義務自然會逐漸增加。

  • And then lastly, the IRA with the with the switch from the blenders tax credit to the production tax credit does create a lot of tailwind for us because that will switch from $1 for everyone to a CI. base where we're the most advantaged.

    最後,IRA 從攪拌機稅收抵免轉變為生產稅收抵免,確實為我們創造了很多順風,因為這將從每個人 1 美元轉變為 CI。我們最有優勢的基地。

  • And it does not have allow importers to qualify for the credit.

    而且它沒有允許進口商獲得信貸資格。

  • So if you looked at those two benefits of the IRA, that that is a good tailwind for DGD., those things are all on paper that's waiting for a lot of policy clarification between now and the end of the year.

    因此,如果你看看 IRA 的這兩個好處,這對 DGD 來說是一個很好的推動力。

  • But the one thing we look at is that is the policy intent of all those programs and most of those take legislative action to change and so that we think will be difficult.

    但我們關注的一件事是所有這些計劃的政策意圖,其中大多數都採取立法行動來改變,因此我們認為這將是困難的。

  • And that means those policies probably go forward as designed at least initially.

    這意味著這些政策可能至少會按照最初的設計進行。

  • So well waiting on seeing how that develops in oh nine couple of months.

    非常期待九個月後的發展。

  • I think the whole renewables segment is all asking for this guidance to be given so that we can move forward with plans.

    我認為整個再生能源領域都要求提供這項指導,以便我們能夠推進計劃。

  • But all of that looks looks pretty constructive.

    但所有這些看起來都非常有建設性。

  • On the feedstock side, we've mostly seen prices equilibrate.

    在原料方面,我們基本上看到價格趨於平衡。

  • There was previously a lot of advantage in a foreign feedstocks.

    以前國外原料有很多優點。

  • We've seen that largely equilibrate.

    我們已經看到這基本上是平衡的。

  • We've seen the market really level out a lot of the price lag we've talked about for the last several months as has evened out.

    我們已經看到市場確實消除了過去幾個月我們所討論的價格滯後,並且已經趨於平衡。

  • So I think what you're seeing is the world is recognizing that waste oils are still the most advantaged.

    所以我認為你看到的是世界正在認識到廢油仍然是最有優勢的。

  • Our partnership with Darling still gives us the most advantage access domestic feedstock and some of their foreign feedstock that they now produce other South America and Europe.

    我們與 Darling 的合作關係仍然使我們能夠最有優勢地獲取國內原料以及他們現在在其他南美和歐洲生產的一些外國原料。

  • All of that looks advantaged.

    所有這些看起來都是有利的。

  • And as we see vegetable oil and BD. are going to be marginal going forward and that will set a floor in this whole space.

    正如我們所看到的植物油和 BD。未來將處於邊緣地位,這將為整個空間奠定基礎。

  • So as the blenders tax credit goes away, BD. will be significantly underwater without an adjustment to the rents for the last piece that I think is positive is the expectation that rents will have to go up to offset the loss that BD and vegetable oil RD. takes as we migrate to the PTC. so that there's a lot of expectation that rooms will increase.

    因此,隨著攪拌機稅收抵免的消失,BD。如果不調整租金,我認為最後一塊的租金將大幅水下,我認為積極的是租金將不得不上漲以抵消 BD 和植物油 RD 的損失。當我們遷移到 PTC 時。因此人們對房間數量的增加抱有很大的期望。

  • That won't happen overnight.

    這不會在一夜之間發生。

  • But that's that does it is of significant tailwind to DGD. and D.

    但這確實對 DGD 有重要的推動作用。和D。

  • Thanks to all of the detail there on that.

    感謝所有的細節。

  • I just wanted to ask on the naptha side, specifically exports to the Gulf Coast been strong the past couple of months, which I think has been supportive of margins.

    我只是想問一下石腦油方面,特別是過去幾個月對墨西哥灣沿岸的出口強勁,我認為這支撐了利潤率。

  • What are you seeing on your side and how you're thinking about the outlook for naptha here?

    您對此有何看法?

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think there's a couple of things.

    我認為有幾件事。

  • You know, driving the relative strength to naphtha unit.

    你知道,推動石腦油單位的相對強度。

  • Some of that is with the economic run cuts, assemble hydro skimmers, you see less and that's on the markets.

    其中一些是隨著經濟運作的削減,組裝水力撇油器,你在市場上看到的越來越少。

  • The US Gulf Coast supplies had a step in for that, but we're also seeing a bit of a pickup for petrochemical demand for naptha, which looks to be improving.

    美國墨西哥灣沿岸的供應對此有所貢獻,但我們也看到石化產品對石腦油的需求有所回升,而且似乎正在改善。

  • And so that's also true rating, some of the export opportunities.

    這也是真實的評級,一些出口機會。

  • So we expect it to continue.

    所以我們預計它會繼續下去。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you all.

    謝謝大家。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

    下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Maybe what I know Lee, and I know how much you wanted to talk about the concept of capture rate, but it has been there for the entire sector.

    也許就我所知,李,我知道你有多想談論捕獲率的概念,但它已經存在於整個領域。

  • It's kind of been steadily declining over the last 18 months.

    在過去 18 個月裡,這一數字一直在穩步下降。

  • And some of that obviously is just the absolute level of margins coming down.

    其中一些顯然只是利潤率絕對水準的下降。

  • But can you maybe talk about some of the things that have been headwinds and then what when they happen to see improvements on that?

    但是您能否談談一些一直存在的不利因素,然後當他們碰巧看到這些方面的改進時該怎麼辦?

  • And that is it absolute margins, wider crude differentials, crude backwardation, secondary product pricing improvement?

    是絕對利潤率、原油價差擴大、原油現貨溢價、次級產品定價改善嗎?

  • Any any signs of encouragement as you look at the end of the fourth quarter 2025 in terms of maybe improvements in some margin capture?

    展望 2025 年第四季末,您是否有任何鼓舞人心的跡象,認為某些利潤率可能會有所改善?

  • Yes, Brian Lane.

    是的,布萊恩·萊恩。

  • I'm fortunate to get the hand that off the grid half of that work.

    我很幸運能夠完成一半的工作。

  • Hey, Ryan.

    嘿,瑞安。

  • So I think you noted most of the key factors, and we've talked about some of them are already at crude market.

    所以我認為你注意到了大多數關鍵因素,我們已經討論過其中一些因素已經出現在原油市場上。

  • Backwardation certainly has been a bit persistent and strong here, particularly late in 2024.

    這裡的現貨升水肯定有點持續且強勁,尤其是在 2024 年末。

  • That's certainly a factor Factor VIIa.

    這當然是因子 VIIa 的因素。

  • Look back in early 2023.

    回顧 2023 年初。

  • We're actually in contango.

    我們實際上處於升水狀態。

  • So there's no data that continuing on an ongoing basis is not something you would necessarily expect.

    因此,沒有數據表明持續不斷的情況不是您所期望的。

  • So see an improvement.

    所以看到改進。

  • There will help capture.

    會有幫助捕捉。

  • Are you thinking about the US in particular?

    您特別考慮美國嗎?

  • We've talked about heavy maintenance on a number of quarters here recently.

    我們最近在這裡討論了多個季度的繁重維護工作。

  • So that's definitely a factor more in some regions and others.

    因此,這在某些地區和其他地區肯定是一個更重要的因素。

  • I mean, there's always going to be some maintenance in our system industry as well.

    我的意思是,我們的系統產業也總是需要進行一些維護。

  • So I think there's been some heavier periods that have had some impact.

    所以我認為有一些較嚴重的時期產生了一些影響。

  • And then you mentioned secondary products.

    然後你提到了次級產品。

  • I think the ones that really come to mind there are those related to pet Cam.

    我認為真正浮現在腦海中的是那些與寵物攝影機有關的。

  • So things like propylene and APT and Gary just talked about it as we're seeing in pet can start to improve.

    因此,像丙烯和 APT 這樣的東西,加里剛剛談到,正如我們在寵物中看到的那樣,可以開始改善。

  • You'd expect those values to improve as well.

    您期望這些值也會得到改善。

  • And that's going to have some positive impact on capture.

    這將對捕獲產生一些積極的影響。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • And then maybe one follow up on some earlier comments on sustainable aviation fuel from as we think about I mean, the message over the last couple of years laden And this, I think there was clearly an expectation that the market, the South Africa was going to be understood applied some which is going to be good for.

    然後也許是我們對可持續航空燃料的一些早期評論的跟進,我的意思是,過去幾年的信息充滿了這一點,我認為人們顯然期望市場,南非正在發展要理解應用一些將是有好處的。

  • You guys have been a lot of moving pieces in that still view the market over the next 12 to 24 months as undersupplied.

    你們已經做出了很多令人感動的事情,仍然認為未來 12 到 24 個月的市場供應不足。

  • And then if you think about some, you're probably one of the few domestic producers that can qualify to sell into Europe, how you think about some potential optionality of being able to sell into into Europe versus is kind of domestic markets and pricing here?

    然後,如果您考慮一些,您可能是少數有資格向歐洲銷售的國內生產商之一,您如何看待能夠向歐洲銷售的一些潛在選擇,而不是國內市場和這裡的定價?

  • Yes, Eric, I think we're our view is consistent that the market is physically undersupplied.

    是的,埃里克,我認為我們的觀點是一致的,即市場實際供應不足。

  • Given the ramp in mandates that is occurring over the next year to five years, you're absolutely correct.

    考慮到未來一年到五年內強制要求的增加,你是絕對正確的。

  • Europe will be the most attractive market and we do have capability of supplying into that market.

    歐洲將是最具吸引力的市場,我們確實有能力向該市場供貨。

  • That will be one of our primary outlets as we start up some.

    當我們開始一些業務時,這將是我們的主要銷售管道之一。

  • But I think the policies are always, as I mentioned before, we're waiting for a lot of clarification there.

    但我認為,正如我之前提到的,政策總是在等待大量的澄清。

  • The mandate in Europe is very clear.

    歐洲的任務非常明確。

  • How that will be implemented is waiting on a lot of minority at all these kinds of details that make finishing the contract difficult.

    如何實施正在等待許多少數人了解所有這些使完成合約變得困難的細節。

  • But we see that is all solvable book between now and the end of the year for Gen one compliance.

    但我們認為從現在到今年年底第一代合規性問題都是可以解決的。

  • And I think in the US, the IRA clearly favors SAP over our die from a from a credit standpoint.

    我認為在美國,從信用的角度來看,IRA 顯然更青睞 SAP,而不是我們的模具。

  • Again, we're waiting for clarity on that and as well as a lot of our customers and blenders are waiting for clarity so that we can get the contract language perfected.

    同樣,我們正在等待這一點的明確,我們的許多客戶和攪拌商也在等待明確,以便我們能夠完善合約語言。

  • But but all of that is moving forward and we're confident that's going to get solved contractually, especially once we get clarity on on this policy guidance.

    但所有這些都在向前推進,我們相信這將透過合約得到解決,特別是一旦我們明確了這項政策指導。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • And good morning, ladies and team have the first question is just around operating expenses.

    早上好,女士們和團隊,第一個問題是關於營運費用的。

  • It's always been a hallmark of a flare as your ability to keep it keep that OpEx low per barrel, your perspective on how some of those moving pieces as we move into the next couple of years and how you're thinking about it even geographically as well?

    它一直是火炬的一個標誌,因為你有能力保持它保持每桶較低的運營成本,你對我們進入未來幾年時一些移動部件的看法,以及你如何考慮它,即使在地理上出色地?

  • Hey, Neal, it's Greg.

    嘿,尼爾,我是格雷格。

  • So you we keep those expenses under control at one of the things we focus on every day, a couple of parts.

    因此,我們將這些費用控制在我們每天關注的事情之一,幾個部分。

  • I think that are probably notable energy costs have been low natural gas drive, and that has been not been a help.

    我認為天然氣驅動的能源成本可能較低,但這並沒有帶來任何幫助。

  • And so it looks like those prices will move back towards kind of a middle of the cycle kind of range here, at least that's what folks are thinking.

    因此,看起來這些價格將回到週期的中間範圍,至少人們是這麼認為的。

  • But that's been helpful.

    但這很有幫助。

  • Inflation has made it a bit hard after we've seen the effects of that on both maintenance costs, maintenance costs, Catalyst chemicals, those kinds of things.

    在我們看到通貨膨脹對維護成本、催化劑化學品等方面的影響後,通貨膨脹變得有點困難。

  • We work hard with our partners to trying to make sure we keep those cost competitive.

    我們與合作夥伴一起努力確保我們保持這些成本的競爭力。

  • And so as inflation moderates, we'd expect to see some of that yet improve as well.

    因此,隨著通膨放緩,我們預計其中一些情況也會有所改善。

  • Those are probably the two biggest parts to think about and really the things we focus on every day.

    這些可能是最需要考慮的兩個部分,也是我們每天關注的事情。

  • Yes, yes.

    是的,是的。

  • Understood.

    明白了。

  • On the energy side.

    在能源方面。

  • And then the other one is on just on the Port Arthur coker.

    然後另一台就在亞瑟港煉焦爐上運行。

  • I think when you have I data, you talked about three 25 of EBITDA.

    我想當你有我的數據時,你談到了 EBITDA 的三個 25。

  • And then at then, you talked about it actually run rate of closer to 400 million.

    然後當時你說它實際運行率接近4億。

  • Kind of how do you think as you think about that project specifically about about one, the current economic and then how those economics could evolve as you think about the path back to mid-cycle?

    當你思考這個計畫時,你會如何看待當前的經濟,以及當你思考回到中期週期的路徑時,這些經濟將如何演變?

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Yes, I think we still see that project giving us the returns consistent with what we showed at FID.

    是的,我認為我們仍然看到該項目為我們帶來的回報與我們在 FID 上顯示的回報一致。

  • Yes, current market is a little different than where we started.

    是的,目前的市場與我們開始時的市場有些不同。

  • We got real good benefits earlier this year when we did the turnaround on the old coker, and we expect to see some strong, some strong value there.

    今年早些時候,當我們對舊焦化器進行改造時,我們獲得了真正的良好效益,我們預計在那裡會看到一些強大的價值。

  • So I don't think anything has changed in our view.

    所以我認為我們的觀點沒有任何改變。

  • And then again, obviously, that project is hinged on being able to run a lot of heavy sour crude and upgraded to light products.

    顯然,該專案取決於能否運行大量重質高硫原油併升級為輕質產品。

  • And so as those sour differentials move around, that's going to give us a chance to capture some more value.

    因此,隨著這些不良差異的變化,這將給我們一個獲得更多價值的機會。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Appreciate it.

    欣賞它。

  • The next question is coming from Matthew Blair of TPH.

    下一個問題來自 TPH 的馬修布萊爾 (Matthew Blair)。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Thanks and good morning.

    謝謝,早安。

  • Correctly.

    正確。

  • I think the 4.7 ethanol volume guidance for Q4 might be an all-time record and just community at a time when ethanol margins are really crumbling on paper.

    我認為第四季度 4.7 的乙醇產量指引可能是一個歷史記錄,並且在乙醇利潤率在紙面上真正崩潰的時候只是社區。

  • So could you help us reconcile about that a function of increasing export opportunities or maybe there's a lag we should be thinking about on ethanol indicator?

    那麼您能否幫助我們協調增加出口機會的功能,或者我們應該考慮乙醇指標的滯後性?

  • Yes, Eric, we have increased our ethanol production capability this year.

    是的,艾瑞克,我們今年提高了乙醇生產能力。

  • Most of this year has been pretty positive for that expanded capability.

    在今年的大部分時間裡,這種能力的擴展都非常積極。

  • We have also expanded our export markets.

    我們也擴大了出口市場。

  • Again, talking about policy.

    再次,談論政策。

  • There's there's interest in US ethanol, especially of a lot of our ISCC. qualified ethanol in Europe.

    人們對美國乙醇很感興趣,尤其是我們的許多 ISCC。歐洲合格的乙醇。

  • We also see that because of US corn being the most attractive feedstock in the U.S. with the largest carry out one of the largest harvest we've ever seen, it is giving a lot of opportunity for ethanol exports.

    我們也看到,由於美國玉米是美國最具吸引力的原料,其產量是我們所見過的最大產量之一,因此它為乙醇出口提供了許多機會。

  • So that's what we're seeing is increased demand.

    這就是我們看到的需求增加。

  • We're seeing new markets for E10 in the world.

    我們在全球看到了 E10 的新市場。

  • And we see Brazil is increasing its ethanol mandate as well as the SaaS mandate beginning in 25.

    我們看到巴西從 25 月開始增加其乙醇授權以及 SaaS 授權。

  • So we've grown our capacity in anticipation of a lot of this expanded its interest globally.

    因此,我們已經增強了我們的能力,預計這將在全球範圍內擴大其興趣。

  • And ethanol.

    還有乙醇。

  • Sounds good.

    聽起來不錯。

  • And then there's been a little bit more chatter lately about increasingly global parents and your exports are a big part of the outlook for US refiners.

    最近,關於日益全球化的母公司的討論越來越多,而你們的出口是美國煉油廠前景的重要組成部分。

  • So when you hear about the potential for Splunk increases in tariffs, what do you think that is a concern going forward?

    因此,當您聽到 Splunk 關稅可能增加時,您認為未來的擔憂是什麼?

  • Well, I'll take an effort to that.

    嗯,我會努力做到這一點。

  • I mean, you when you look at those tariffs, a lot of homes that are really focused around manufactured goods in most countries don't want to increase the cost of energy that they're trying to take.

    我的意思是,當你看到這些關稅時,你會發現,在大多數國家,許多真正專注於製成品的家庭並不想增加他們試圖承擔的能源成本。

  • And so, you know, when you think about targets for tariffs, I normally don't really wrap around energy.

    所以,你知道,當你考慮關稅目標時,我通常不會真正圍繞能源。

  • And so I don't have it turns on that.

    所以我沒有打開它。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The next question is coming from Jason Gabelman of Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Hey, morning.

    嘿,早安。

  • Thanks for taking my questions.

    感謝您回答我的問題。

  • I wanted to circle back on the financial framework and you provided some helpful comments about the return of capital metrics of being a firm target.

    我想回顧一下財務框架,您對作為堅定目標的資本回報率指標提供了一些有用的評論。

  • And I'm wondering how you think about using the balance sheet in a downturn.

    我想知道您如何看待在經濟低迷時期使用資產負債表。

  • You have this TWD4 billion kind of target for cash for the balance sheet on?

    你們的資產負債表上有這個40億新台幣的現金目標嗎?

  • Is that where you want headed into a downturn so you could lean on the balance sheet a bit more should the market we can.

    這是你想要進入低迷的地方,這樣你就可以在市場允許的情況下更多地依賴資產負債表嗎?

  • Yes, this is Jason.

    是的,這是傑森。

  • I'll be glad to share some of our thoughts about cash.

    我很樂意分享我們對現金的一些想法。

  • And at our targeted cash balance would depend on environment we're in.

    我們的目標現金餘額將取決於我們所處的環境。

  • But in a normalized environment, we'd like to keep the cash balance between 4 to 5 billion as a guideline.

    但在正常化環境下,我們希望現金餘額維持在4至50億之間作為指引。

  • Nash, no cash to move around a lot in any quarter due to things like working capital, but we're not going to hoard cash.

    納什,由於營運資金等原因,任何季度都沒有現金可以大量流動,但我們不會囤積現金。

  • I think directionally you should expect that our cash balance to trend down a little from here.

    我認為從方向上來說,你應該預期我們的現金餘額會從現在開始略有下降。

  • I'd also like to know if it wasn't for the positive impact from working capital this quarter would have drawn cash over EUR200 million.

    我還想知道,如果沒有本季營運資金的正面影響,現金將超過 2 億歐元。

  • We also had strong buybacks for the quarter were 500, 65 without laid out on the balance sheet.

    本季我們也進行了 500 次強勁回購,其中 65 次沒有列在資產負債表上。

  • But to answer your question more directly, yes, you're right.

    但更直接回答你的問題,是的,你是對的。

  • That 4 billion gives us a lot more room and flexibility in a downturn to continue our approach to buybacks.

    這 40 億美元為我們在經濟低迷時期提供了更大的空間和靈活性,可以繼續我們的回購方式。

  • I think that's a correct.

    我認為這是正確的。

  • That's a big factor.

    這是一個很大的因素。

  • In sum it up for the $4 billion number.

    總而言之,這個數字是 40 億美元。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks for that color.

    謝謝那個顏色。

  • And then there are just on the market.

    然後市場上就有。

  • We've noticed a pretty strong product exports for gasoline and diesel out of the US and it's coming as fracs have fallen a bit here the past months and still see seems like prices are needing to fall to clear the US market and keep US inventories on kind of at healthy levels.

    我們注意到美國的汽油和柴油產品出口相當強勁,這是因為過去幾個月這裡的壓裂價格有所下降,但仍然認為價格似乎需要下跌才能出清美國市場並保持美國庫存處於健康水平。

  • Is that a fair interpretation of what's going on in the market where there's kind of a push from the U.S. on product exports rather than a poll from international sources on those products?

    這是對市場上正在發生的事情的公平解釋嗎?

  • Well, it's a good question.

    嗯,這是一個好問題。

  • You know that it would appear that what you're saying is correct.

    你知道你所說的話似乎是正確的。

  • But you know, in the face of that gasoline inventories are really pretty low, were 10 million below where we were last year.

    但你知道,面對汽油庫存確實相當低,比去年低了 1000 萬。

  • You have a lot of the five year average of the inventories wouldn't indicate a need to push.

    您擁有大量五年平均庫存,並不表示需要推動。

  • It would almost seem like it's more of a poll and were getting an export premium and that's why the barrels are flowing.

    看起來這更像是民意調查,並且獲得了出口溢價,這就是桶流動的原因。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And when you say you're getting an export premium, you're able to sell to international markets at a higher price than what you're selling at on the US Gulf Coast?

    當您說您獲得出口溢價時,您能夠以比在美國墨西哥灣沿岸銷售的價格更高的價格向國際市場銷售產品嗎?

  • Yes, we are.

    是的,我們是。

  • Okay, great.

    好的,太好了。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bowman for closing comments.

    現在,我想把發言權交還給鮑曼先生以作結束發言。

  • Thank you, Donna, and we appreciate everyone joining us today.

    謝謝你,唐娜,我們感謝今天加入我們的所有人。

  • As always, please feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions.

    一如既往,如果您有任何其他問題,請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。

  • Have a great day, everyone.

    祝大家有美好的一天。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event.

    女士們、先生們,今天的活動到此結束。

  • You may disconnect your lines or log off at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

    此時您可以斷開線路或註銷,然後享受剩下的一天。

  • Yes, yes, yes.

    是的,是的,是的。

  • Yes, we are.

    是的,我們是。

  • Yes, yes.

    是的,是的。