瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Valero Energy Corp.'s Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corp. 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹主持人、投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our Chairman, CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; Rich Walsh, our Executive Vice President and General Counsel; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早安，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Lane Riggs、我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Jason Fraser、我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Gary Simmons、我們的執行副總裁兼總法律顧問 Rich Walsh，以及 Valero 高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you've not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到財報並希望取得副本，請造訪我們的網站 investorvalero.com。財報中還附有表格，提供有關我們業務部門的額外財務信息，以及本次電話會議中提及的調整後財務指標的對帳和披露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請在通話結束後隨時聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC. Now I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在我想提請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總而言之，新聞稿和電話會議中陳述的公司或管理層對未來的期望或預測均為前瞻性陳述，旨在受聯邦證券法的安全港條款的保護。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所描述的因素。現在我會把電話交給 Lane 來致開場白。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report solid financial results for the second quarter, driven by our strong operational and commercial execution. In fact, we set a record for refining throughput rate in our US Gulf Coast region in the second quarter, demonstrating the benefits of our investments in growth and optimization projects.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。我們很高興地報告第二季度穩健的財務業績，這得益於我們強大的營運和商業執行力。事實上，我們在第二季度創下了美國墨西哥灣沿岸地區煉油吞吐量的最高紀錄，證明了我們在成長和優化項目方面的投資所帶來的收益。

Refining margins were supported by strong product demand against the backdrop of low product inventory globally. In particular, early July US diesel inventories and days of supply are at the lowest level for the month in almost 30 years. We continue to see strong demand with our quarterly diesel sales volumes up approximately 10% over the same period last year and gasoline sales about the same as last year.

在全球產品庫存低的背景下，強勁的產品需求支撐了煉油利潤率。尤其是7月初美國柴油庫存和供應天數均處於近30年來當月最低水準。我們持續看到強勁的需求，本季柴油銷售量比去年同期成長約 10%，汽油銷售與去年大致相同。

On the financial side, we continue to honor our commitment to shareholder returns with a payout ratio of 52% in the second quarter. And last week, we announced a quarterly cash dividend on our common stock of $1.13 per share. On the strategic front, we continue to progress the FCC unit optimization project at St. Charles that will enable the refinery to increase the yield of high-value products, including high-octane alkylate. The project is expected to cost $230 million in startup in 2026.

在財務方面，我們持續履行對股東回報的承諾，第二季的股利支付率為52%。上週，我們宣布普通股季度現金股利為每股 1.13 美元。在策略方面，我們繼續推進聖查爾斯 FCC 裝置優化項目，這將使煉油廠提高高辛烷值烷基化物等高價值產品的產量。該計畫預計於 2026 年啟動，投資額為 2.3 億美元。

Looking ahead, we remain optimistic on refining fundamentals with several planned refinery closures this year and limited announced capacity additions beyond 2025. Additionally, we expect our sour crude oil differentials to widen as OPEC+ and Canada continue to increase production during the third and fourth quarters.

展望未來，我們仍然對煉油基本面持樂觀態度，今年計劃關閉幾家煉油廠，並宣布2025年後產能增加有限。此外，隨著 OPEC+ 和加拿大在第三季和第四季繼續增加產量，我們預計酸性原油差價將會擴大。

In closing, we remain committed to maintain our track record of commercial and operational excellence, which has been the hallmark of our strategy for over a decade. And our commitment remains underpinned by a strong balance sheet that also provides us plenty of financial flexibility. So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

最後，我們將繼續致力於維持我們卓越的商業和營運記錄，這是我們十多年來策略的標誌。我們的承諾仍然以強勁的資產負債表為基礎，這也為我們提供了充足的財務靈活性。因此，荷馬，我將把電話轉回給你。

Thanks, Lane. For the second quarter of 2025, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $714 million or $2.28 per share compared to $880 million or $2.71 per share for the second quarter of 2024. The Refining segment reported $1.3 billion of operating income for the second quarter of 2025 compared to $1.2 billion for the second quarter of 2024.

謝謝，萊恩。2025 年第二季度，歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨收入為 7.14 億美元，即每股 2.28 美元，而 2024 年第二季為 8.8 億美元，即每股 2.71 美元。煉油部門報告 2025 年第二季的營業收入為 13 億美元，而 2024 年第二季的營業收入為 12 億美元。

Refining throughput volumes in the second quarter of 2025 averaged 2.9 million barrels per day or 92% throughput capacity utilization. Refining cash operating expenses were $4.91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025. The Renewable Diesel segment reported an operating loss of $79 million for the second quarter of 2025 compared to operating income of $112 million for the second quarter of 2024. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 2.7 million gallons per day in the second quarter of 2025.

2025 年第二季煉油吞吐量平均為每天 290 萬桶，產能利用率為 92%。2025 年第二季煉油現金營運費用為每桶 4.91 美元。再生柴油部門報告 2025 年第二季的營業虧損為 7,900 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季的營業收入為 1.12 億美元。2025 年第二季再生柴油銷售量平均為每天 270 萬加侖。

The Ethanol segment reported $54 million of operating income for the second quarter of 2025 compared to $105 million for the second quarter of 2024. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.6 million gallons per day in the second quarter of 2025. For the second quarter of 2025, G&A expenses were $220 million, net interest expense was $141 million and income tax expense was $279 million.

乙醇部門報告 2025 年第二季的營業收入為 5,400 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季的營業收入為 1.05 億美元。2025 年第二季乙醇產量平均為每天 460 萬加侖。2025 年第二季度，一般及行政費用為 2.2 億美元，淨利息支出為 1.41 億美元，所得稅支出為 2.79 億美元。

Depreciation and amortization expense was $814 million, which includes approximately $100 million of incremental depreciation expense related to our plan to cease refining operations at our Benicia Refinery by the end of April 2026. Net cash provided by operating activities was $936 million in the second quarter of 2025. Included in this amount was a $325 million unfavorable impact from working capital and $86 million of adjusted net cash used in operating activities associated with the other joint venture member's share of DGD.

折舊和攤銷費用為 8.14 億美元，其中包括與我們計劃在 2026 年 4 月底前停止貝尼西亞煉油廠的煉油業務相關的約 1 億美元增量折舊費用。2025年第二季經營活動提供的淨現金為9.36億美元。其中包括 3.25 億美元的營運資本不利影響，以及與其他合資成員持有的 DGD 股份相關的經營活動中使用的 8,600 萬美元調整後淨現金。

Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2025. Regarding investing activities, we made $407 million of capital investments in the second quarter of 2025, of which $371 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business.

不包括這些項目，2025 年第二季營業活動提供的調整後淨現金為 13 億美元。關於投資活動，我們在 2025 年第二季進行了 4.07 億美元的資本投資，其中 3.71 億美元用於維持業務，包括扭虧為盈、催化劑和監管合規的成本，餘額用於成長業務。

Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture members' share of DGD and other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $399 million in the second quarter of 2025. Moving to financing activities. We returned $695 million to our stockholders in the second quarter of 2025, of which $354 million was paid as dividends and $341 million was for the purchase of approximately 2.6 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 52% for the quarter.

不計歸屬於其他合資成員在 DGD 和其他可變利益實體中所佔份額的資本投資，2025 年第二季歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資為 3.99 億美元。轉向融資活動。我們在 2025 年第二季向股東返還了 6.95 億美元，其中 3.54 億美元以股息形式支付，3.41 億美元用於購買約 260 萬股普通股，本季的派息率為 52%。

Year-to-date, we have returned over $1.3 billion through dividends and stock buybacks for a payout ratio of 60%. And as Lane mentioned, on July 17, we announced a quarterly cash dividend on common stock of $1.13 per share. With respect to our balance sheet, we repaid the outstanding principal balance of $251 million of 2.85% senior notes that matured in April. We ended the quarter with $8.4 billion of total debt, $2.3 billion of total finance lease obligations and $4.5 billion of cash and cash equivalents.

今年迄今為止，我們透過股息和股票回購返還了超過 13 億美元，股息率為 60%。正如 Lane 所提到的，7 月 17 日，我們宣布普通股季度現金股利為每股 1.13 美元。就我們的資產負債表而言，我們償還了 4 月到期的 2.85% 優先票據的未償還本金餘額 2.51 億美元。本季結束時，我們的總債務為 84 億美元，融資租賃債務總額為 23 億美元，現金和現金等價物為 45 億美元。

The debt-to-capitalization ratio net of cash and cash equivalents was 19% as of June 30, 2025. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash. Turning to guidance. We still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2025 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance and joint venture investments.

截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的債務資本化率為 19%。本季末，我們擁有充足的資本，可用流動資金為 53 億美元（不含現金）。轉向指導。我們仍預期 2025 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑、法規合規和合資投資的支出。

About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth. For modeling our third quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.76 million to 1.81 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 430,000 to 450,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 240,000 to 260,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 465,000 to 485,000 barrels per day.

其中約 16 億美元用於維持業務和平衡成長。為了模擬我們第三季的營運情況，我們預計煉油吞吐量將在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸為每天 176 萬至 181 萬桶；中部大陸為每天 43 萬至 45 萬桶；西海岸為每天 24 萬至 26 萬桶；北大西洋為每天 46.5 萬至 48.5 萬桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the third quarter to be approximately $4.80 per barrel. With respect to the Renewable Diesel segment, we still expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.1 billion gallons in 2025, reflecting lower production volumes due to economics. Operating expenses in 2025 should be $0.53 per gallon, which includes $0.24 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們預計第三季煉油現金營運費用約為每桶 4.80 美元。對於再生柴油領域，我們仍然預計 2025 年的銷售量約為 11 億加侖，這反映出由於經濟原因產量較低。2025 年的營運費用應為每加侖 0.53 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.24 美元的折舊和攤提等非現金成本。

Our Ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.6 million gallons per day in the third quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.40 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization. For the third quarter, net interest expense should be about $135 million. Total depreciation and amortization expense in the third quarter should be approximately $810 million, which includes approximately $100 million of incremental depreciation expense related to our plan to cease refining operations at our Benicia Refinery by the end of April 2026.

我們的乙醇部門預計第三季每天的產量為 460 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.40 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的折舊和攤提等非現金成本。第三季淨利息支出約 1.35 億美元。第三季的總折舊和攤銷費用約為 8.1 億美元，其中包括與我們計劃在 2026 年 4 月底前停止貝尼西亞煉油廠的煉油業務相關的約 1 億美元的增量折舊費用。

We expect this incremental depreciation related to the Benicia Refinery to be included in D&A for the next three quarters, resulting in a quarterly earnings impact of approximately $0.25 per share based on current shares outstanding. For 2025, we still expect G&A expenses to be approximately $985 million.

我們預計與貝尼西亞煉油廠相關的增量折舊將計入未來三個季度的折舊和攤銷中，根據當前流通股數計算，將對季度收益產生約 0.25 美元/股的影響。到 2025 年，我們仍預計 G&A 費用約為 9.85 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. (Operator Instructions)

我們的開場白到此結束。（操作員指示）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Now that we are halfway through the summer driving season, how is refined product demand trending across your footprint? Maybe just unpack some of Lane's opening remarks about sales across your system. Are there any noticeable patterns or shifts? And additionally, what kind of signals are you observing in the export market?

現在我們已經進入夏季駕駛季節的一半，成品油需求在您所在地區的趨勢如何？也許只是解讀一下 Lane 關於整個系統銷售情況的一些開場白。是否存在明顯的模式或變化？此外，您在出口市場上觀察到了什麼樣的訊號？

Theresa, it's Gary. Overall, I'd tell you the fundamentals around refining continue to look very supportive. Total light product inventory remains below the five-year average range, below where we were last year at this time. And demand for transportation fuels remains robust, not only here in the US, but also in our typical export markets.

特蕾莎，我是加里。總體而言，我想說煉油業的基本面仍然看起來非常有利。輕工業產品總庫存仍低於五年平均水平，低於去年同期的水平。運輸燃料的需求仍然強勁，不僅在美國，在我們典型的出口市場也是如此。

Our view is gasoline demand relatively flat to last year. It looks like vehicle miles traveled are up slightly year over year, but probably only up enough to offset efficiency gains in the automotive fleet, not up enough to really create incremental demand. If you look at our wholesale volumes, they would also indicate flat year-over-year gasoline demand. In addition to relatively strong gasoline demand domestically, we've also seen good export demand to Latin America.

我們認為汽油需求與去年相比基本持平。看起來，車輛行駛里程比去年同期略有增加，但可能僅足以抵消汽車車隊效率的提高，而不足以真正創造增量需求。如果你看一下我們的批發量，你會發現汽油需求與去年同期持平。除了國內汽油需求相對強勁之外，我們還看到對拉丁美洲的出口需求良好。

And then on the supply side, the transatlantic arb to ship gasoline from Europe to the United States has been closed for much of the year. So when you combine relatively good demand with less supply coming from Europe, you would kind of expect inventory to be a little lower than last year, and that's what we saw in the second quarter. So those factors ultimately resulted in a little stronger gasoline margin environment this year compared to last.

而在供應方面，從歐洲向美國運送汽油的跨大西洋航線在今年大部分時間都處於關閉狀態。因此，當你將相對較好的需求與來自歐洲的較少供應結合起來時，你會預期庫存會比去年略低，這就是我們在第二季度看到的情況。因此，這些因素最終導致今年的汽油利潤環境比去年略有增強。

Going forward, the transatlantic arb is marginally open. So supply seems adequate to meet demand. We're kind of getting to the end of driving season. We'll start RVP transition in some regions soon. So it's hard to see a lot of support for gasoline cracks moving forward.

展望未來，跨大西洋仲裁略微開放。因此供應似乎足以滿足需求。我們即將進入駕駛季節的尾聲。我們很快就會在某些地區開始 RVP 過渡。因此，很難看到汽油裂解價差未來獲得大量支撐。

Absent some type of supply disruption, we'd kind of expect gasoline cracks to follow typical season patterns, remain around mid-cycle levels through the end of the year.

如果沒有某種類型的供應中斷，我們預計汽油裂解價差將遵循典型的季節模式，到年底仍將保持在週期中期水平左右。

Distillate, the story is much different, though, where gasoline demand is expected to fall off some, we expect distillate demand to pick up. First, we'll start to get into harvest season, see agricultural demand pick up, and then we'll transition to heating oil season. Overall, diesel demand has continued to trend above last year's level, really strong demand in the first quarter due to colder weather and then increased demand for refinery-produced diesel with less imports of bio and renewable diesel.

然而，餾分油的情況則大不相同，預計汽油需求將會下降，而我們預期餾分油需求將會回升。首先，我們將開始進入收穫季節，農業需求將回升，然後我們將過渡到取暖油季節。總體而言，柴油需求繼續呈現高於去年水平的趨勢，第一季由於天氣寒冷，需求真正強勁，隨後對煉油廠生產的柴油的需求增加，而生物柴油和可再生柴油的進口量減少。

In our system, diesel sales are currently trending about 3% above last year's level. Again, while domestic demand has been good, we see a strong pull of US Gulf Coast distillate into the export markets. The export really have kept inventory down near historical lows during a time where restocking typically occurs. We have seen diesel inventory gain in the last couple of weeks, but really, that's just a result of an incredibly strong export market in early June.

在我們的系統中，柴油銷量目前比去年同期高出約 3%。再次，雖然國內需求良好，但我們看到美國墨西哥灣沿岸餾分油對出口市場的強勁拉動。在通常需要補充庫存的時期，出口確實使庫存保持在歷史低點附近。過去幾週我們看到柴油庫存增加，但實際上，這只是 6 月初出口市場異常強勁的結果。

As exports got really strong, freight rates spiked, and so it closed some of those export arbs. Freight rates have come back off, so the arbs are open to export both to Latin America and Europe. With those arbs open, it's difficult to see how we get the normal build in diesel inventory that occurs in the third quarter. So diesel cracks have been strong with low inventory. We expect diesel cracks to remain strong heading into hurricane season, if we have some type of supply disruption, I think you'll see a pretty significant market reaction with inventories as low as they are.

隨著出口真正強勁，運費飆升，因此它關閉了部分出口套利交易。運費已經回落，因此套利者願意向拉丁美洲和歐洲出口。由於這些套利交易的開放，我們很難看到我們如何獲得第三季正常的柴油庫存增加。因此，柴油裂解價差一直強勁，庫存卻較低。我們預計，進入颶風季節，柴油裂解價差仍將保持強勁，如果出現某種供應中斷，我認為你會看到市場對庫存低的情況做出相當明顯的反應。

And what is your near to medium-term outlook for light-heavy differentials, taking into account the tailwind from incremental OPEC+ barrels coming to market, but also considering potential headwinds from AMEX production volatility, the unavailability of Venezuelan barrels, GOM crude quality issues and so on. How do you think these factors play out?

考慮到 OPEC+ 原油增量進入市場的順風，同時也考慮到 AMEX 產量波動、委內瑞拉原油供應不足、墨西哥灣原油品質問題等潛在阻力，您對輕重原油差異的近期至中期前景如何？您認為這些因素將如何發揮作用？

Yes. Thus far, year-to-date, I think the quality differentials have certainly been a headwind for us. We thought coming into the year, you'd see less demand with Lyondell going down, but that was kind of offset. The Venezuelan sanctions pulled about 200,000 barrels a day out of the US Gulf Coast market.

是的。到目前為止，我認為今年迄今為止的品質差異無疑是我們的一個阻力。我們原以為，隨著萊昂德爾的股價下跌，今年的需求會減少，但結果卻是一種抵銷。對委內瑞拉的製裁導緻美國墨西哥灣沿岸市場每天減少約 20 萬桶石油。

You had the wildfires that took about 5 million barrels of June supply off the market.

野火導致 6 月市場供應量減少約 500 萬桶。

But going forward, we do think things will get better. It will probably be the fourth quarter before you really see that. Canadian production has not only recovered from the wildfires, but it continues to grow. Then as you mentioned, OPEC unwinding their 1.9 million barrels a day of cuts by August. Really, it appears that much of the ramp-up in the OPEC production we haven't seen on the market yet so far because there was crude oil burn in the region for seasonal power demand.

但展望未來，我們確實認為情況會變得更好。可能要到第四季你才能真正看到這一點。加拿大的產量不僅從野火中恢復過來，而且還在持續成長。然後，正如您所提到的，OPEC將在8月份之前解除每天190萬桶的減產計劃。事實上，到目前為止，我們似乎還沒有在市場上看到歐佩克產量大幅增加，因為該地區為了滿足季節性電力需求而消耗了大量原油。

As we move out of summer, more of those barrels will make their way to the market. And then early summer tensions in the Middle East also caused some countries to front-end load fuel oil purchases that they use for power demand also. Again, that will unwind fuel oil coming back off to the market. As fuel oil comes back, that will support wider differentials as well.

隨著夏季的過去，更多的桶裝啤酒將進入市場。而初夏中東地區的緊張局勢也導致一些國家預先購買燃料油以滿足電力需求。這再次阻礙了燃料油重返市場。隨著燃油的回流，這也將支持更大的差異。

Additionally, in the fourth quarter with turnaround activity, you should see less demand for those barrels. So all of those should really contribute to wider differentials in the fourth quarter. I think the only unknown here is really what happens with the Russian sanctions. Thus far, we haven't really seen much of an impact. But if the sanctions are effective and cut some of the Russian barrels, that would obviously be bearish the differentials.

此外，隨著第四季經濟好轉，你應該會看到這些石油的需求減少。因此，所有這些都應該會真正導致第四季度差距的擴大。我認為這裡唯一未知的是對俄羅斯的製裁會發生什麼事。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到太大的影響。但如果制裁有效並減少俄羅斯石油出口，這顯然將利空利差。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Team, just wanted to understand what's your outlook for the net capacity additions for the remaining part of this year and for 2026. Are you still seeing major capacity additions globally? Or do you think those things are slowing down and given the demand growth, we should be better positioned going ahead, if you could talk about that?

團隊，只是想了解您對今年剩餘時間和 2026 年淨產能增加的展望。您是否仍看到全球大規模產能增加？或者您認為這些事情正在放緩，並且考慮到需求的增長，我們應該處於更好的位置，您能談談這個嗎？

Yes, Manav, this is Gary. I think definitely, when we look out on the horizon, there's not a lot of new capacity coming online and a lot of what new capacity there is, is really more geared towards petrochemical production rather than making transportation fuels. If we look at next year, it looks like just over 400,000 barrels a day of new refining capacity coming online.

是的，Manav，這是 Gary。我認為，當我們放眼未來時，肯定會發現上線的新產能並不多，而且許多新產能實際上更傾向於石化生產，而不是生產運輸燃料。如果我們展望明年，看起來每天將有超過 40 萬桶的新增煉油能力投入使用。

Initially, most consultants were forecasting around 800,000 barrels a day of total light product demand growth, which would have indicated significant tightening starting next year. With some of the economic uncertainty, especially around tariffs, forecasts have fallen off to where a lot of people are only forecasting around 400,000 barrels a day total light product demand growth.

最初，大多數顧問預測輕質油品總需求將增加約 80 萬桶/日，這意味著明年開始供應將大幅緊縮。由於一些經濟不確定性，特別是關稅方面的不確定性，預測已經下降，許多人僅預測輕質產品總需求成長約為每天 40 萬桶。

And then a lot of consultants are showing a lot of that demand growth being filled by a step change in renewable production. I'm confident we'll see tighter supply-demand balances. The question really is when does this occur? Is it next year? Or do we actually see some type of economic activity slowdown, and it isn't until 2027 that things really start to get tight.

許多顧問表示，再生能源生產的逐步變化將滿足大量需求的成長。我相信我們將看到供需平衡更加緊張。真正的問題是這何時發生？是明年嗎？或者我們實際上看到某種類型的經濟活動放緩，直到 2027 年情況才真正開始變得緊張。

Thus far, our view is the economy has been fairly resilient.

到目前為止，我們認為經濟仍具有相當的韌性。

Demand for transportation fuels has remained strong. So I guess I'm a little more optimistic about the economy, and we'll have to see with all the uncertainty on renewables, whether we see a ramp-up in renewable production or not. The other big factor in all this is will we see additional refinery rationalization.

運輸燃料的需求依然強勁。所以我想我對經濟更加樂觀一些，我們必須看看再生能源的所有不確定性，看看我們是否會看到再生能源產量的成長。所有這一切的另一個重要因素是我們是否會看到煉油廠進一步合理化。

Although some refinery closures have been announced, certainly, the recent announcement around the Lindsey Refinery in the UK was fairly unexpected. Hard to believe there aren't others facing a similar situation with other refinery closures, too, things could really tighten up a lot faster.

儘管已經宣布關閉一些煉油廠，但最近有關英國林賽煉油廠的公告無疑是相當出人意料的。很難相信其他煉油廠沒有面臨類似的關閉情況，情況可能會更快收緊。

But the big driver here is really what happens to the economy, and you're probably in a better position to assess that than I am.

但這裡最大的驅動力其實是經濟狀況的變化，而你可能比我更有能力評估這一點。

A quick follow-up is I was looking at your Gulf Coast capture. Now that's where heavy light narrowness should hit the capture the hardest, but the capture actually was over 92%. And I'm trying to understand a few dynamics, what allow you to deliver such a strong capture. And then coming back to the first question, if heavy lights do widen out, should we expect a tailwind to the Gulf Coast capture because the way your benchmark is constructed, those do not get reflected in the benchmark. So if you could talk about that.

快速的後續問題是，我正在查看您的墨西哥灣沿岸捕獲情況。現在，光線狹窄對捕獲的影響應該最大，但捕獲率實際上超過了 92%。我試著去了解一些動態，是什麼讓你能夠實現如此強大的捕捉。然後回到第一個問題，如果重型燈光確實擴大，我們是否應該預期墨西哥灣沿岸捕獲會出現順風，因為基準的建造方式並未反映在基準中。所以如果你可以談論這個的話。

Yes, Manav, this is Greg. So I think you hit on some of the points related to heavy light and capture because we do include heavy grades in our reference for the Gulf Coast. So as those move out and contract, that's picked up in the reference crack that we use. So not as big of an impact on the capture rate because it's built into the indicator margin that we use.

是的，馬納夫，這是格雷格。因此，我認為您觸及了一些與重光和捕獲相關的要點，因為我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的參考中確實包括了重等級。因此，當它們移動並收縮時，就會在我們使用的參考裂縫中被發現。因此對捕獲率的影響不是很大，因為它已內建在我們使用的指標邊際中。

On our performance in the second quarter, a lot of the improvement was driven by really strong operating performance coming out of the heavy maintenance we had in the first quarter. And that was really highlighted, if you remember, by Lane's comment about record quarterly throughput in that region. So good operating performance.

就我們第二季的業績而言，很大程度上的改善得益於我們在第一季進行大規模維護後實現的強勁營運業績。如果你還記得的話，萊恩關於該地區創紀錄的季度吞吐量的評論確實突顯了這一點。經營業績這麼好。

We had strong commercial performance as well in that region, particularly on the product side, good exports, great wholesale performance in that part of our business as well. So those were the primary drivers for the Gulf Coast in the second quarter. And again, as those crude differentials widen out, to the extent that they're in the indicator that we use, probably not as much of a factor when you think about the capture rate relative to our indicator.

我們在該地區的商業表現也很強勁，特別是在產品方面，出口表現良好，批發表現也很好。這些是第二季墨西哥灣沿岸地區的主要驅動因素。而且，隨著這些原油差異的擴大，就我們使用的指標而言，當您考慮相對於我們指標的捕獲率時，它們可能不是那麼重要的因素。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

I want to spend some time on the return of capital. You returned $633 million in the first quarter -- or second quarter with a payout of north of 70%. So just your perspective on the sustainability of capital returns and how we should be thinking about the buyback in the back half of the year?

我想花一些時間討論一下資本回報。您在第一季返還了 6.33 億美元，或在第二季返還了 70% 以上的資金。那麼，您對資本回報的可持續性有何看法，以及我們應該如何考慮下半年的回購？

Yes, Neil, it's Homer. I mean maybe I'll just start with just the framework around buybacks, right? It's guided by a number of things. Obviously, first and foremost, we've got our stated minimum commitment to an annual payout of 40% to 50% of adjusted cash flow, right? And so you should continue to consider that as nondiscretionary. We'll honor that in any sort of environment.

是的，尼爾，我是荷馬。我的意思是也許我只是從回購的框架開始，對嗎？它受到多種因素的引導。顯然，首先，我們已經明確承諾每年支付調整後現金流的 40% 到 50% 的最低金額，對嗎？因此，您應該繼續將其視為非自由裁量權。無論在何種環境下，我們都會尊重這一點。

Then we've got our target minimum cash position of $4 billion to $5 billion, and we're right at the midpoint there. So we're not looking to build more cash, right? And -- as a result of that, consistent with what we've been saying for quite some time, we'll continue to use all excess free cash flow to buy back shares. And as you highlighted, the second quarter resulted in a payout of 52%. Keep in mind, though, that we also used $251 million towards the notes that matured in April in addition to $325 million that was consumed by working capital, right?

我們的目標最低現金部位是 40 億至 50 億美元，目前我們正處於中間點。所以我們不希望累積更多現金，對嗎？因此，與我們長期以來所說的一致，我們將繼續使用所有多餘的自由現金流來回購股票。正如您所強調的，第二季的股利率為 52%。不過請記住，除了 3.25 億美元用於營運資金外，我們還使用了 2.51 億美元來償還 4 月到期的票據，對嗎？

So looking forward, with the balance sheet where it is and discipline around capital investments, I think you can continue to expect us to maintain this posture where all excess free cash is aimed at share buybacks. Longer term, I mean, I don't know if you have the investor deck handy, but we've got a slide in there. I think it's Slide 11 that puts all of this into context, actually reflecting our actual results. So if you look at the last 10-year period through 2024, total cash flow from operations was around $61 billion, and that includes changes in working capital, which is roughly $6 billion a year.

因此展望未來，考慮到目前的資產負債表和資本投資紀律，我認為您可以繼續期待我們保持這種態勢，即所有多餘的自由現金都用於股票回購。從長遠來看，我的意思是，我不知道您是否有投資者演示文稿，但我們那裡有一張幻燈片。我認為第 11 張投影片將所有這些都放在了背景中，實際上反映了我們的實際結果。因此，如果你看截至 2024 年的過去 10 年，經營活動產生的總現金流約為 610 億美元，其中包括營運資本的變化，大約每年 60 億美元。

If you think about run rate CapEx, right, $2 billion to $2.5 billion, so $2.25 billion at the midpoint with $1.5 billion sustaining and then $500 million to $1 billion of growth. And layer on top, you've got $1.4 billion or so to fund the dividend, right? So $6 billion of annual cash flow from operations, $2.5 billion CapEx, $1.4 billion to dividend, that leaves over $2.3 billion for buybacks based on our actual results over the past 10 years. Hopefully, that gives you some context.

如果您考慮運行率資本支出，那麼，20 億美元到 25 億美元，中間值是 22.5 億美元，維持值是 15 億美元，然後增加 5 億美元到 10 億美元。除此之外，您還有大約 14 億美元用於支付股息，對嗎？因此，根據我們過去 10 年的實際業績，每年 60 億美元的營運現金流、25 億美元的資本支出、14 億美元的股息，剩下超過 23 億美元用於回購。希望這能給你一些背景資訊。

Really helpful, Homer. Just the follow-up is around DGD. Obviously, a lot of moving pieces and appears to be pretty tough, if not trough conditions. What's the path back to mid-cycle here? How do you think about the evolution of this business? And can you talk about your commitment to it?

真的很有幫助，荷馬。後續內容圍繞著 DGD 展開。顯然，如果不是在低谷條件下，許多移動的部件看起來相當困難。回到中期週期的路徑是什麼？您如何看待這個業務的發展？您能談談您對此的承諾嗎？

Neil, this is Eric. I think you've already said that it's in a lot of policy clarity, vagueness right now. I think you can see really the linchpin in all of this is going to be what the EPA says post their comment period, that are due by August 8. And so what they do in terms of setting the RVO and what they do in terms of SREs and if and any reallocations will set the D4 RIN market and then consequently, hopefully set how the rest of the other markets will react versus the D4 RIN.

尼爾，這是埃里克。我想您已經說過，目前很多政策都很明確，但也有些模糊。我想你可以看到，所有這一切的關鍵在於美國環保署在其評論期結束後所說的內容，評論期截止日期為 8 月 8 日。因此，他們在設定 RVO 方面所做的工作以及他們在 SRE 方面所做的工作以及任何重新分配是否會設定 D4 RIN 市場，然後希望設定其餘市場對 D4 RIN 的反應。

So I mean, we see the LCFS market in California is slowly moving up after they passed their 9% obligation increase effective July 1. We see that a lot -- Europe continues to support its mandate for the 2% SAF requirement. We see the CFR in Canada is going to continue to go forward. So long-term, there's still enough tailwind out there that says this segment will continue to be in demand.

所以我的意思是，我們看到加州的低碳食品市場在 7 月 1 日通過 9% 的義務增加法案後正在緩慢上升。我們經常看到這樣的情況——歐洲繼續支持其 2% SAF 要求的授權。我們看到加拿大的 CFR 將繼續向前發展。因此，從長遠來看，仍有足夠的順風優勢表明這一領域將繼續受到需求。

It's really just a question of when we see these credit prices start to move. You're starting to see the D4 RIN move up. You're starting to see it separate from the D6. The big question is going to be when you see fat prices adjust to these policies once these policies are clarified. And so once those fat prices start to disconnect, then I think you'll see the margins open up for DGD. And you'll see more demand for DGD and renewables with the ongoing policy years.

這實際上只是一個何時我們會看到這些信貸價格開始變動的問題。您開始看到 D4 RIN 上升。您開始看到它與 D6 的區別。最大的問題是，一旦這些政策明確，脂肪價格將如何根據這些政策進行調整。因此，一旦這些脂肪價格開始脫鉤，那麼我認為你就會看到 DGD 的利潤空間擴大。隨著政策的持續實施，你會看到對 DGD 和再生能源的需求不斷增加。

Doug Leggate, Wolf Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

So guys, I think I've got to go back to Refining school because you guys are embarrassing us here with your distillate yields versus your light sweet crude throughput. I'm wondering if you could help us reconcile what's going on there. Obviously, margins are -- heat margins were better than gas for most of Q2, I guess. But when we look at the -- basically since 2024, I think your light crude input is about 10% higher, but your distillate yield is up materially as well. So great result, but can you help us understand what's going on there is my first question. I've got a quick follow-up for Eric.

所以夥計們，我想我必須回到煉油學校，因為你們的餾分油產量與輕質低硫原油產量相比讓我們感到尷尬。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們解決那裡發生的事情。顯然，利潤率——我猜想，在第二季的大部分時間裡，熱能利潤率都比天然氣利潤率好。但當我們看一下——基本上自 2024 年以來，我認為您的輕質原油投入量大約高出 10%，但您的餾分油產量也大幅上升。結果非常好，但是您能幫助我們了解發生了什麼嗎？這是我的第一個問題。我對 Eric 有一個快速的跟進。

Yes, Doug, this is Greg. So I would tell you, it's pretty simple. We've been, for the most part, in that period in max distillate production mode. So when you think about how we're adjusting the operation, we're maximizing the yield of jet fuel and diesel fuel. So even though you've got a crude slate that might be a bit lighter, we can do some adjusting within the downstream operation to try to make sure we get all the distillate molecules into that pool that we can. And we've been pretty successful and effective at doing that in that time frame.

是的，道格，這是格雷格。所以我想告訴你，這很簡單。在那段時期，我們大部分時間都處於最大餾分油生產模式。因此，當您考慮如何調整作業時，我們正在最大限度地提高航空燃料和柴油的產量。因此，即使你的原油板岩可能稍微輕一些，我們也可以在下游操作中進行一些調整，以確保將所有餾出物分子盡可能地放入該池中。我們在那個時間範圍內做得相當成功和有效。

Sorry for the Part B here, but would I assume that that's part of the reason why your capture is doing so well?

抱歉，這裡只說了 B 部分，但我是否可以認為這就是你的捕獲效果如此出色的部分原因？

Certainly helps it. Certainly, it helped when you've got that strong distillate crack and then you're maximizing that yield, that certainly will have a positive impact on capture.

肯定有幫助。當然，當你獲得強大的餾分裂解並最大化產量時它會有所幫助，這肯定會對捕獲產生積極的影響。

So Eric, I wanted to follow up on the earlier question, if you don't mind, just on renewable diesel. I see if you can dumb it down for us, when you roll everything together, and you guys are obviously the lowest cost producer with the best feedstock setup. Do you see DGD net to Valero as free cash flow positive on a sustainable basis?

所以 Eric，如果你不介意的話，我想跟進之前的問題，只討論再生柴油。我看你們能否為我們簡化一下，當你們把所有東西放在一起時，你們顯然是成本最低、原料設定最好的生產商。您是否認為 DGD 淨額對 Valero 而言可持續地帶來正自由現金流？

I think the answer to that is yes. Like I said, but it's going to take a little bit of clarity on what the EPA is going to do with RINs because the numbers they're talking about doing will put a positive tailwind into DGD's production. And so to your point, we still have the best market access, both from a feedstock standpoint, a certification of products and access to all the different markets. And it's still a low CI game.

我認為答案是肯定的。就像我說的，但這需要稍微明確 EPA 將如何處理 RIN，因為他們所談論的數字將為 DGD 的生產帶來積極的推動作用。所以正如您所說，我們仍然擁有最好的市場准入，無論是從原料的角度，還是從產品認證和進入所有不同市場的角度。而且它仍然是一個低 CI 遊戲。

I think one of the things that everyone needs to keep in front of them is that Europe and the UK really only accept waste oil, low CI feedstocks, certified feedstocks. So as much as there's been a lot of talk about the support of domestic production and soybean oil and Canada's canola oil, those are not acceptable feedstocks to most of the customers that are really interested in lowering their carbon footprint.

我認為每個人都需要牢記的一件事是，歐洲和英國實際上只接受廢油、低 CI 原料和經過認證的原料。儘管人們一直在談論支持國內生產以及大豆油和加拿大菜籽油，但對於大多數真正有興趣降低碳足跡的客戶來說，這些並不是可接受的原料。

And so we're still the most advantaged from a feedstock standpoint. I think once you start to see these credit prices move, and like I said, we have seen LCFS and RIN prices moving higher, those factors and credit prices will continue to make DGD an advantaged platform. And long-term, it will be a positive cash flow into Valero.

因此，從原料的角度來看，我們仍然是最有優勢的。我認為，一旦你開始看到這些信貸價格變動，就像我說的，我們已經看到 LCFS 和 RIN 價格上漲，這些因素和信貸價格將繼續使 DGD 成為一個優勢平台。從長遠來看，這將為瓦萊羅帶來正現金流。

If you can't make money, nobody can in this business. I appreciate the time.

如果你不能賺錢，那麼在這個行業裡就沒人能賺錢。我很感激你抽出時間。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德、派珀·桑德勒。

Eric, maybe one more follow-up on that side of the business. I mean it seems so far that your SAF operations, the SAF operations have been going well. Can you maybe -- you're eight or nine months into post-start-up of the conversion there or the expansion there. Can you maybe talk about what you've seen so far, either operationally, what you've seen in terms of what's maybe surprised or been as expected in terms of the geographic mix of demand, pricing, et cetera, and how that market is evolving?

艾瑞克，也許我還需要就業務的這一方面再跟進一下。我的意思是，到目前為止，你們的 SAF 行動、SAF 行動進展順利。您是否可以——那裡的轉換或擴展工作已經啟動八到九個月了。您能否談談您目前所看到的情況，無論是營運方面，還是就需求、定價等地理分佈而言，有哪些令人驚訝或符合預期的情況，以及該市場是如何發展的？

Yes. Thanks. I think one thing we discovered operationally that I might say was a pleasant surprise was -- our unit made SAF very, very well, and it blended very, very well. Prior to our start-up, we've heard through others that had gone down this journey that it was very difficult to make. It was very difficult to blend. It was very difficult to make the certifications and satisfy the logistics.

是的。謝謝。我認為我們在行動中發現的一個令人驚訝的現像是——我們的部隊非常非常出色地完成了 SAF 任務，而且它融合得非常非常好。在我們創業之前，我們就聽其他經歷過這趟旅程的人說過，這是非常艱難的。混合起來非常困難。獲得認證並滿足後勤要求非常困難。

We -- with the combination of DGD's gear, the quality of our project start-up team and our overall project design, we've got a lot of capability on SAF as well as everything between SAF and, call it, traditional RD. So operationally, this thing has been a positive. The logistics and blendability has been a positive. The ability to move this product through the Valero jet fuel system has been very effective. I think if there is any sort of downward surprises, we thought there would be much more interest in this product, particularly from airlines.

憑藉 DGD 的設備、我們專案啟動團隊的品質以及我們的整體專案設計，我們在 SAF 以及 SAF 與傳統 RD 之間的所有方面都擁有強大的能力。因此從操作上來說，這件事是正面的。物流和可混合性都是正面的。透過瓦萊羅航空燃料系統運輸該產品的能力非常有效。我認為，如果出現任何意外的下滑，我們認為人們會對該產品產生更大的興趣，尤其是航空公司。

I think everyone is still feeling out this market -- we're seeing a lot of interest in sales. Obviously, the mandate in the EU and the UK. There's some potential that they have underbought for the first half of the year, and they may come back and try to make sure they're hitting their 2% blend in the back half of this year. So we may see some sales pick up in the second half of this year as they stare at their end-of-year compliance target.

我認為每個人仍在試探這個市場——我們看到很多人對銷售感興趣。顯然，這是歐盟和英國的授權。他們有可能在今年上半年購買不足，他們可能會回來並嘗試確保在今年下半年達到 2% 的混合比例。因此，我們可能會看到今年下半年銷售額有所回升，因為他們正關注著年底的合規目標。

So I think this market continues to grow. The demand continues to grow. The interest continues to grow. The interest in the voluntary credits associated with this continues to grow. That is very small volumes, but everyone is trying to explore that as a way to simplify their carbon offset plan by just going direct to DGD.

所以我認為這個市場將繼續成長。需求持續成長。人們的興趣不斷增長。人們對與此相關的自願信貸的興趣持續增長。這是非常小的數量，但每個人都在嘗試探索這種方法，透過直接向 DGD 提出請求來簡化他們的碳補償計劃。

So I still see a lot of upside in that. The project is still returning -- the returns on our project are still meeting our threshold targets.

因此我仍然認為這其中有很多好處。這個項目仍在恢復中——我們項目的回報仍然符合我們的門檻目標。

So that's going very well. and the credit prices have supported the making of the product. And so if I add on to that because the next question, well, with the recent reconciliation bill narrowing the benefit of SAF to equal to RD, we still see premiums above that coming out of the market. And so as everyone figures out how to readjust with the changes in the PTC, we still see premiums for SAF over RD from the customer standpoint.

所以一切進展順利。信貸價格支持了產品的生產。因此，如果我補充這一點，因為下一個問題是，好吧，由於最近的和解法案將 SAF 的福利縮小到等於 RD，我們仍然看到高於該福利的溢價從市場上流出。因此，當每個人都想辦法適應 PTC 的變化時，從客戶的角度來看，我們仍然看到 SAF 比 RD 更有優勢。

Great. And then maybe a question for you, Lane. Sorry to ask, but I mean, there are reports that the California government envisions themselves kind of like brokering a sale of the Benicia Refinery. Any comments or any thoughts on anything that could potentially change that would change your mind to close that asset next year?

偉大的。那也許我想問你一個問題，萊恩。很抱歉，但我的意思是，有報告指出加州政府設想自己有點像是促成貝尼西亞煉油廠的出售。對於任何可能改變您明年關閉該資產的想法的因素，您有何評論或想法？

This is Rich Walsh. First, we don't respond to speculation in media reports along those lines. And nothing has changed in our plans regarding Benicia right now. But look, there's been a lot of public discussion about reforming the market and in particular, the regulatory environment in California to head off refinery closures.

我是里奇·沃爾什。首先，我們不對媒體報導中的此類猜測作出回應。目前我們關於貝尼西亞的計劃沒有任何改變。但是，公眾已經就改革市場，特別是改革加州的監管環境以避免煉油廠關閉進行了大量討論。

And I think you guys all know the CEC has been tasked with evaluating refinery capacity on behalf of the state. And I think they're working very hard to see what, if anything, they can do. And for our part, we've been in discussions with the CEC and other elected officials and policy officials regarding Benicia's future. And I think there's a genuine desire for them to avoid the refinery closure, but there's no solutions that have materialized, at least not from our perspective.

我想你們都知道，CEC 的任務是代表國家評估煉油廠的產能。我認為他們正在非常努力地尋找可以實現的目標。就我們而言，我們一直在與 CEC 以及其他民選官員和政策官員討論貝尼西亞的未來。我認為他們確實希望避免煉油廠關閉，但目前還沒有任何解決方案，至少從我們的角度來看是這樣。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

The question that as Saudi is putting more barrels in the market, I assume there's going to be more the medium sour grade like the ever medium. I'm wondering that how you think it's going to impact on the global distillate yield as more of the medium sour is available? That's the first question.

問題是，隨著沙烏地阿拉伯向市場投放更多石油，我認為中等酸性原油（例如中酸性原油）的數量將會增加。我想知道，隨著中質酸性原油的增多，您認為這將如何影響全球餾分油產量？這是第一個問題。

Paul, it's Greg. Yes. So obviously, right, those grades have more distillate typically in them than some of the lighter grades. So as we see those come into the market, you would expect that to have a positive impact on distillate yield overall. And as a result, distillate production would work up a bit.

保羅，我是格雷格。是的。所以很明顯，這些等級的酒中餾出物通常比一些較輕的等級酒中餾出物更多。因此，當我們看到這些產品進入市場時，你會期望它們對整體餾分油產量產生正面影響。因此，餾分油產量會略有增加。

I don't have a good feel for the exact numbers for that. But there's no doubt that those are grades that are more rich in distillate than most of the other crudes that we have run in their place over the last few years.

我不太清楚具體的數字。但毫無疑問的是，這些原油的餾分油含量比過去幾年我們開採的大多數其他原油都要高。

Greg, I know that typically -- to pinpoint an exact number, but any feel that you a 2% increase, 5% or anything that you can share?

格雷格，我知道通常需要指出一個確切的數字，但有人覺得會成長 2%、5% 或什麼的嗎？可以分享一下嗎？

Yes, Paul, I don't have those numbers off the top of my head. I'm sure you can contact Homer, and we can talk about that more offline. But I don't remember the numbers off the top of my head.

是的，保羅，我還沒有想清楚這些數字。我相信您可以聯繫荷馬，我們可以在線下進一步討論這個問題。但我記不清具體數字了。

But this is Lane. I think the one thing to add to that is you got to think about the markets you're putting diesel into and the specs around it, whether they're high cetane or ultra-low sulfur diesel. So in a global sense, the incremental diesel does -- is there open capacity for the higher valued markets where the stuff is pointed versus does the incremental diesel is produced in the world as these grades get more sour and more heavy, they end up just sort of as heavy in the marine market, that's sort of one of the things you got to consider with your -- the way you're thinking about it.

但這是萊恩。我認為需要補充的一點是，你必須考慮柴油所進入的市場及其相關規格，無論是高十六烷值柴油或超低硫柴油。因此，從全球意義上講，增量柴油是否有開放產能供應給高價值市場，而隨著這些等級的柴油變得更酸、更重，全球增量柴油的產量是否會下降，最終在船舶市場上的產量也會一樣重，這是你必須考慮的事情之一——你正在思考這個問題。

Okay. Great. The second question, I think, is for Eric. Eric, I mean, with the PTC and everything that is more in favor of domestic production and also keeping in the local market, I assume. So is that still economic for us that to export RD from DGD.

好的。偉大的。我認為第二個問題是問 Eric 的。艾瑞克，我的意思是，我認為，PTC 和其他一切都更有利於國內生產，同時也有利於留在本地市場。那麼，對我們來說，從 DGD 出口 RD 是否仍然經濟？

I know that previously you guys export quite a lot to Europe. So are those still economic or that the economic now saying that it's going to be majority of the RD production will be staying local?

我知道以前你們向歐洲出口了很多產品。那麼這些仍然是經濟因素嗎？還是現在的經濟狀況顯示大部分研發生產將留在本地？

Yes. I think -- so we do see the markets in Canada, EU, UK and California are still attractive for foreign feedstocks. The challenge that we have is we haven't -- most of this is still trading on news. So you've seen as the EPA will talk about what they're doing with the RIN, you'll see most of the fat prices are tracking the D4 RIN.

是的。我認為——我們確實看到加拿大、歐盟、英國和加州的市場對外國原料仍然具有吸引力。我們面臨的挑戰是，我們還沒有——其中大部分仍然基於新聞進行交易。因此，您會看到，當 EPA 談論他們如何使用 RIN 時，您會發現大多數脂肪價格都在追蹤 D4 RIN。

So even though fat prices have moved up, credit prices are slowly moving up, they haven't separated yet to reflect the impacts of some of the other policy comments on lower PTC, half RIN in the RVO and really a lot of the tariffs that have been placed on foreign feedstocks. So at some point, those markets will have to adjust. I think as the policies get papered -- get finalized and papered, and you'll see there will have to be some reflection in foreign feedstock prices versus domestic feedstock prices to continue meeting the demand of all those other markets.

因此，儘管脂肪價格上漲，信貸價格也在緩慢上漲，但它們尚未分離，無法反映出其他一些政策評論對降低 PTC、RVO 中一半 RIN 以及對外國原料徵收的大量關稅的影響。因此，到了某個時候，這些市場必須進行調整。我認為，隨著政策的最終確定和實施，你會發現，國外原料價格與國內原料價格之間必須反映，才能繼續滿足所有其他市場的需求。

And so like I said before, it's still a low CI game and a lot of the customers do not want vegetable oil as their feedstock base. So there will be an increase in the RIN. There will be support of vegetable feedstocks feeding into the RIN. But when you go into LCFS markets or markets that are based on LCFS and CI, it's still going to want to pull low CI feedstocks. And so you'll have to see the market adjust for that.

所以就像我之前說的，這仍然是一個低 CI 遊戲，很多客戶不希望植物油作為他們的原料基礎。因此 RIN 將會上升。將支持將植物原料輸入 RIN。但是當你進入 LCFS 市場或基於 LCFS 和 CI 的市場時，它仍然會想要拉低 CI 原料。所以你必須看到市場做出相應調整。

And I think we're starting to see some of those prices move, but it's probably going to take some time for these credit prices to increase based on the length in the credit banks for both RINs and LCFS.

我認為我們已經開始看到部分價格有變動，但根據 RIN 和 LCFS 信貸銀行的長度，這些信貸價格可能還需要一段時間才能上漲。

So I think as those banks slowly start to get consumed, the credit prices will move up, you'll start to see foreign feedstocks disconnect from domestic feedstocks. Both of them need to disconnect from the D4 RIN in order for anyone to increase production, particularly if you look at the -- a lot of the veg oil BD players, if soybean oil and the D4 RIN just track, there is no margin to run yet. And so I think once you see whatever the EPA comes out with RVO and SREs, that will determine when you start seeing BD and RD start to increase in production.

因此我認為，隨著這些銀行慢慢開始被消耗，信貸價格將會上升，你將開始看到外國原料與國內原料脫節。為了讓任何人都能增加產量，兩者都需要與 D4 RIN 斷開連接，特別是如果你看看——很多植物油 BD 玩家，如果大豆油和 D4 RIN 只是跟踪，那麼就沒有運行的餘地了。因此，我認為，一旦您看到 EPA 發布的 RVO 和 SRE，這將決定您何時開始看到 BD 和 RD 的產量開始增加。

Eric, can we confirm that what percentage of your DGD, RD is currently exported to Europe and Canada?

Eric，我們能否確認一下，目前貴公司的 DGD、RD 中有多少比例出口到了歐洲和加拿大？

Yes. We're not going to share that level of detail, Paul, but we are the largest exporter and really one of the largest producers of SAF. And so we're definitely maxing out what we can sell into those markets. But yes, that will always shift around based on feedstock prices and credit prices.

是的。保羅，我們不會分享這種程度的細節，但我們是最大的出口國，也是 SAF 的最大生產商之一。因此，我們肯定會最大限度地向這些市場銷售產品。但確實，這總是會根據原料價格和信貸價格而改變。

Paul Sankey, Sankey Research.

保羅‧桑基 (Paul Sankey)，桑基研究公司。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can hear you, yes.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

We've had good high levels of throughput in US refining this year despite the shutdowns. Can you just talk a little bit about that? It's been fairly steady and very high. And I just wondered what the components of that were as well as the outlook for the second half in your view, perhaps ignoring hurricane risk and stuff, but just the general turnaround outlook for the second half.

儘管有停產，但今年美國煉油廠的產量仍然很高。能稍微談一下這個嗎？它一直相當穩定且很高。我只是想知道其中的組成部分以及您認為下半年的前景如何，也許忽略了颶風風險和其他因素，但只是下半年整體好轉的前景。

And the follow-up is a very interesting moment in history with the US becoming a net exporter to Nigeria. Could you just talk a little bit about the impact of Nigerian refining on Atlantic Basin markets? Interesting stuff.

接下來的歷史時刻非常有趣，美國成為尼日利亞的淨出口國。能否簡單談談尼日利亞煉油對大西洋盆地市場的影響？有趣的東西。

Paul, it's Greg. I think -- I'll talk about the first one. Just repeat that for me again. What part of -- are you looking at?

保羅，我是格雷格。我想——我會談論第一個。請再給我重複一遍。您正在看哪個部分？

Well, the system is going to shut down -- would be shut down of Lyondell and stuff, we've just seen, what is it, $17.5 million of throughputs in US refining seems like a high number. That's been very steady, actually. I just -- it's a good thing. I just wondered how come with so high and holding so high from your perspective and from an industry perspective.

好吧，系統將要關閉 - 萊昂德爾和其他公司將要關閉，我們剛剛看到，它是什麼，美國煉油廠 1750 萬美元的產量似乎是一個很高的數字。事實上，這一直非常穩定。我只是──這是一件好事。我只是想知道，從您和行業的角度來看，為什麼價格如此之高，持有量又如此之高。

And the follow-through is the second half turnarounds and whether or not we'll really sustain this kind of throughput.

而後續的問題是下半年的轉變以及我們是否真的能夠維持這種吞吐量。

Right. Okay. Yes, I think throughput has been real strong, particularly in the Gulf Coast, probably a good indication of people coming out of turnaround and running well. One of the things we look at a lot of times is it's been a relatively mild summer weather-wise, which a lot of times, as you get hotter and hotter, you start to hit some limitations operationally at lower rates. And so we haven't seen that.

正確的。好的。是的，我認為吞吐量確實很高，特別是在墨西哥灣沿岸，這可能表明人們已經走出困境並運作良好。我們經常關注的事情之一是，今年夏天的天氣相對溫和，但很多時候，隨著天氣越來越熱，在較低的速率下，營運會開始遇到一些限制。所以我們還沒有看到這一點。

I think you've been able to see the industry hold at pretty strong performance.

我想你已經看到這個行業保持了相當強勁的表現。

Obviously, not a lot of things have been breaking. So that keeps utilization up. And as we get to later parts of the summer, we'll see if warmer weather starts to creep in and we start to see some of those rates tail off. As far as turnarounds in the third quarter, it's always hard to see where the industry goes. I don't think we have any unique insight into that relative to what you can read elsewhere.

顯然，並沒有發生太多事情。這樣就可保持較高的利用率。隨著夏季後期的到來，我們將看到天氣逐漸變暖，一些降水率也會逐漸下降。就第三季的復甦而言，很難預測該行業的走向。我認為，相對於你在其他地方讀到的內容，我們對此並沒有任何獨特的見解。

But it looks like today, turnarounds are probably pegged to be a little bit below average. What we typically see, though, as we get closer, more work starts to get known and identified in the plant. So we'll see where that ultimately lands. And I think probably you want to take the other half, Gary?

但從今天的情況來看，週轉率可能略低於平均值。然而，我們通常看到的是，隨著我們越來越接近，工廠中的更多工作開始被了解和識別。因此我們將拭目以待最終結果如何。我想你可能想要拿走另一半，蓋瑞？

Yes. Nigeria, I think it's been -- there's a lot in the press that obviously, the Dangote Refinery had a lot of trouble bringing up their resid FCC. So they're running WTI. We see them continue to be in the market marketing atmospheric tower bottoms, which is an indication that, that resid FCC is not running right.

是的。奈及利亞，我認為——媒體上有很多報導，顯然丹格特煉油廠在建造渣油催化裂解系統時遇到了很多麻煩。所以他們正在運行 WTI。我們看到他們繼續在市場上銷售常壓塔底部，這表明渣油 FCC 運作不正常。

So whenever that's the case, they're probably going to push themselves to the lightest diet they can because they don't have that resid destruction capability. Ultimately, when they get the resid FCC fixed, you would expect them to start to transition to a little heavier diet and run more Nigerian grades.

因此，無論何時，他們可能會強迫自己吃盡可能清淡的飲食，因為他們沒有那種破壞殘留物的能力。最終，當他們修復了殘渣 FCC 後，您會期望他們開始過渡到稍微重一點的飲食並運行更多尼日利亞等級。

So they're still sucking in gasoline then?

那麼他們還在吸入汽油嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Doug Leggate got me thinking about the school of refining. I think it's the school of refining hard knocks, right?

道格‧萊格特 (Doug Leggate) 讓我開始思考精煉學派。我認為這是磨練艱苦磨練的學校，對嗎？

Philip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

Philip Jungwirth，BMO 資本市場。

You mentioned in the earlier commentary, gasoline demand being flat despite vehicle mileage being up. Not a new story here, but wondering if there's been any shift in your medium-term outlook for efficiency gains in light vehicle fleet, given consumer preference or government policy incentives. And any reason we could see a slowdown in gains here?

您在先前的評論中提到，儘管車輛行駛里程增加，但汽油需求卻持平。這不是一個新鮮事，但我想知道，考慮到消費者偏好或政府政策激勵，您對輕型車輛效率提升的中期展望是否發生了任何變化。我們可能看到這裡的收益放緩的原因是什麼？

I think it's definitely a potential. You should see less EV penetration than what we have been seeing. Overall, though, the bigger impact in our models has always been kind of the impact of the CAFE standards and vehicles becoming more efficient. And we don't see that changing drastically going forward.

我認為這絕對是一種潛力。你應該會看到電動車的普及率比我們所看到的還要低。但總體而言，我們的車型中更大的影響一直是 CAFE 標準和車輛效率提高的影響。我們認為未來這種情況不會發生巨大變化。

Okay. Great. And then we're all familiar with the affordability conversation in California and the state's tone towards shifting to ensure supply. I know you just have Pembroke in the UK, but wondering what does the affordability or supply conversation looks like here or in broader Europe, given we continue to see closures here, too. And you mentioned the Lindsey bankruptcy earlier.

好的。偉大的。我們都熟悉加州關於負擔能力的討論以及該州為確保供應而採取的轉變態度。我知道英國祇有彭布羅克，但我想知道這裡或整個歐洲的可負擔性或供應情況如何，因為我們也繼續看到這裡的關閉。您之前提到了林賽破產事件。

Really just trying to think about it in terms of the competitive dynamic, given I know you don't have a huge footprint here.

真的只是試著從競爭動態的角度來思考這個問題，因為我知道你在這裡沒有很大的影響力。

Yes. So I would tell you, the UK is a net importer of diesel. So the Lindsey Refinery closure probably doesn't impact that much because the diesel price is largely set by import parity. But at least it looks to us like Lindsey made about 50,000 barrels a day of gasoline.

是的。所以我想告訴你，英國是柴油淨進口國。因此，林賽煉油廠的關閉可能不會造成太大影響，因為柴油價格主要由進口平價決定。但至少在我們看來，林賽每天生產約 5 萬桶汽油。

About 60% of that remained in the UK. Certainly, for our Pembroke asset, some of our netback -- best netback barrels are those that we sell into the local market. And so as Lindsey exit, we'll be trying to fill that void, which will make less available for exports to markets like California.

其中約60%留在了英國。當然，對於我們的彭布羅克資產，我們的一些淨回值——最佳淨回值的油桶是那些我們在當地市場銷售的油桶。因此，隨著林賽的退出，我們將努力填補這一空白，這將減少對加州等市場的出口。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的喬·萊奇（Joe Laetsch）。

So Eric, I want to go back to RD and results in the first -- in the second quarter, while they were still challenged, they improved quarter-over-quarter. I was hoping you could unpack some of the drivers here. I know the indicator was lower, but I think that was offset by a greater recognition of the PTC and continued ramp in SAF sales. I was just hoping you could unpack that.

所以艾瑞克，我想回到研發部門，並在第一季取得成果——在第二季度，雖然他們仍然面臨挑戰，但他們的業績比上一季有所改善。我希望你能在這裡解壓縮一些驅動程式。我知道該指標較低，但我認為這被 PTC 的認可度提高和 SAF 銷售的持續成長所抵消。我只是希望你能解決這個問題。

Yes. So I think one thing in the first quarter, we had a couple of outages on DGD 1 and DGD 2 for catalyst changes. So there was a -- we had better volume in the second quarter as part of that. But I think we also had a full quarter of PTC capture on eligible feedstocks versus the first quarter, we adjusted our operations to capture the -- begin capturing the PTC about mid-Feb.

是的。因此我認為第一季的一件事是，由於催化劑的更換，DGD 1 和 DGD 2 出現了幾次停機。因此，我們第二季的銷量有所改善。但我認為，與第一季相比，我們還對合格原料進行了整整一個季度的 PTC 捕獲，我們調整了運營以捕獲 - 從 2 月中旬開始捕獲 PTC。

So you only got about half a quarter in the first quarter, but the second quarter had full PTC capture for the eligible feedstocks and for our SAF. So we had a lot more income related to those factors in the second quarter. And so I think the offset there is we're still adjusting to all the different tariffs that will be -- that are constantly moving around.

因此，第一季只獲得了大約半個季度的 PTC，但第二季度對合格原料和我們的 SAF 實現了完全的 PTC 捕獲。因此，我們在第二季度獲得了與這些因素相關的更多收入。因此，我認為我們仍在調整各種不同的關稅，這些關稅一直在不斷變化。

And so we do see that the quarter-on-quarter is continuing to improve. And like I said, as we continue to see these credit prices creeping up, I'm hoping you'll see in the third quarter that we'll continue this trend for the rest of the year.

因此，我們確實看到季度環比成長正在持續改善。正如我所說的，隨著信貸價格持續攀升，我希望大家能在第三季看到這一趨勢在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。

Great. And then with the passage of the tax bill a couple of weeks ago, can you talk to any benefits to Valero that we should be mindful of, anything around bonus depreciation?

偉大的。然後，隨著幾週前稅收法案的通過，您能否談談我們應該注意的對瓦萊羅的任何好處，有關獎金折舊的任何資訊？

Yes. Joe, it's Homer. So the reinstatement of full expensing should lower our overall cash tax liability in earlier years versus the typical makers depreciation schedule. So growth CapEx should definitely be eligible for bonus depreciation. A lot of our sustaining CapEx should also be eligible with the exception of turnaround capital, which we already expensed.

是的。喬，我是荷馬。因此，與典型的製造商折舊計劃相比，恢復全額費用化應該會降低我們前幾年的整體現金稅負。因此，成長資本支出絕對應該有資格獲得獎金折舊。除了我們已經支出的周轉資本外，我們的許多維持性資本支出也應該符合資格。

The magnitude of the benefit obviously depends on our CapEx going forward, but that would be one, at least from a tax standpoint benefit. Rich can talk about some of the other stuff.

收益的大小顯然取決於我們未來的資本支出，但至少從稅收角度來看，這也是一項收益。Rich 可以談論一些其他的事情。

Yes. I mean the other things that are out there that are just kind of directionally helpful is the federal EV tax credits go away. And so -- and then I think you also see limitations on the CAFE penalty for the autos, which I think kind of opens the door for them to really just try to meet consumer demands, which is generally for bigger vehicles and puts ICE engines on a more comparable footing to EVs. And so you don't have that same level of pressure to lower fuel economy, and that should also directionally be a collateral benefit that comes out of this bill that we'd expect to see manifest over the following years.

是的。我的意思是，其他一些具有方向性幫助的事情是聯邦電動車稅收抵免的取消。所以 — — 然後我認為你還會看到對汽車的 CAFE 罰款的限制，我認為這為他們真正嘗試滿足消費者需求打開了大門，這通常是對更大車輛的需求，並使 ICE 引擎與電動車處於更可比的地位。因此，您不會承受同樣程度的降低燃油經濟性的壓力，這也應該是該法案帶來的一個附帶好處，我們預計它將在未來幾年內顯現出來。

Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering Holt.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸、皮克林霍爾特。

We saw the results in the North Atlantic were pretty strong and definitely better than our expectations. I think capture moved up quarter-over-quarter despite tighter Syncrude dips and the Pembroke turnaround. So could you talk about what helped you out in the North Atlantic in Q2?

我們看到北大西洋的業績相當強勁，絕對超出了我們的預期。我認為，儘管 Syncrude 原油價格下跌幅度較小且 Pembroke 原油價格出現好轉，但捕獲量仍比上一季上升。那麼，您能談談第二季在北大西洋有哪些事情對您有幫助嗎？

Yes, this is Greg. So we did have a fair amount of maintenance in the second quarter. Most of that maintenance impacted throughput, and you could see that in the lower throughput that we had for the quarter, not so much on capture. And then we had -- like we talked about in the Gulf Coast, we had really strong commercial margins and contributions in that region as well that created the kind of consistent results versus what we had seen in the prior quarter.

是的，這是格雷格。所以我們在第二季確實進行了相當多的維護工作。大部分維護都影響了吞吐量，您可以看到，本季度吞吐量較低，而捕獲量則沒有太大影響。然後，就像我們在墨西哥灣沿岸談到的那樣，我們在該地區擁有非常強大的商業利潤率和貢獻，與上一季度相比，我們取得了一致的業績。

Turnaround in Quebec, right?

魁北克的情況好轉了，對吧？

Turnaround was in Quebec. Yes, Pembroke ran well, actually, kind of it's a theme for our system. Our operations really was strong across the system, including North Atlantic.

轉折點在魁北克。是的，彭布羅克運作良好，實際上，它是我們系統的一個主題。我們的業務在整個系統（包括北大西洋）都非常強勁。

Sounds good. And then the RVO proposal, it has this potential SRE reallocation where the larger refineries would have to essentially pay for the SREs granted to the smaller refineries. It seems like it could be an extra hundreds of millions for Valero if that goes through. So I guess, one, how likely do you think that proposal would be to actually be in the final proposal? And then two, it's generally accepted that the RVO is passed along in the crack.

聽起來不錯。然後是 RVO 提案，它具有潛在的 SRE 重新分配，其中大型煉油廠必須支付授予小型煉油廠的 SRE。如果這項計畫得以實施，瓦萊羅似乎可以額外獲得數億美元。所以我想，第一，您認為該提案實際上出現在最終提案中的可能性有多大？其次，人們普遍認為 RVO 是透過裂縫傳遞的。

Do you think that the extra reallocation costs would also be passed along in the crack as well?

您是否認為額外的重新分配成本也會在裂縫中轉嫁？

Yes. This is Rich Walsh. Let me take an effort to respond to that. I think without getting too deep into this, I think you need to understand the SREs were originally coming out of an exemption that was expired in 2011. And following that expiration, the Department of Energy was obligated to look at whether or not these SREs were necessary because the RFS was creating disproportionate harm or impact to the small refiners and the DOE concluded that it was not impacting small refiners.

是的。我是里奇·沃爾什。請容許我盡力回答這個問題。我認為無需深入探討這個問題，您需要了解 SRE 最初是從 2011 年到期的豁免中產生的。在該期限到期後，能源部有義務審查這些 SRE 是否必要，因為 RFS 對小型煉油廠造成了不成比例的傷害或影響，而能源部得出的結論是它不會對小型煉油廠產生影響。

So today, what we're talking about is extensions from a 2011 exemption, and it requires that these small refiners show a unique and disproportionate economic harm caused by the RFS itself. And like what you're alluding to here, in today's market, the RIN obligation is equally applied across the whole sector, and it's embedded in all the refinery margins. So I think EPA and DOE have repeatedly confirmed this with their own analysis. So while the EPA can't categorically deny all SREs, I believe it's going to be really challenging for these small refiners to make their legal case for the is uniquely harming them.

所以今天，我們討論的是 2011 年豁免的延期，它要求這些小型煉油廠證明 RFS 本身造成了獨特且不成比例的經濟損害。正如您在這裡提到的那樣，在當今市場，RIN 義務同樣適用於整個行業，並且嵌入所有煉油廠的利潤中。所以我認為 EPA 和 DOE 已經透過他們自己的分析反覆證實了這一點。因此，雖然 EPA 不能斷然否認所有的 SRE，但我相信，對於這些小型煉油廠來說，要對這些對他們造成獨特損害的行為提起法律訴訟將非常具有挑戰性。

So my thought process is that you're not going to see a lot of SREs be granted by EPA or at least if you do, you're going to see a lot of legal challenges to that. And in terms of the RVO, I mean, remember that the RVO came out and right after it came out, there were a whole bunch of changes that happened. We had tariffs. We had restrictions on foreign feedstocks, RINs for foreign imports having to be cut in half.

所以我的想法是，你不會看到 EPA 授予很多 SRE，或者至少如果你看到了，你會看到很多法律挑戰。就 RVO 而言，我的意思是，記得 RVO 剛一發布，就發生了一系列變化。我們有關稅。我們對外國原料進行了限制，外國進口的 RIN 必須減少一半。

So I think you're going to see a lot of comments coming in, in the proposed process. And I think EPA is going to have to look really hard at the RVO and have to think about what they got to do to revise it to make it realistic. And so I think those are the things that will kind of play out.

因此我認為您將會在提議的流程中看到很多評論。我認為 EPA 必須認真研究 RVO，並思考如何修改它以使其切合實際。所以我認為這些事情都會發生。

Jason Gabelman, Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼，考恩。

I wanted to go back to the commentary that you provided on the distillate outlook, and I appreciate all of the discussion around North American dynamics. But it seems like some of the output from other regions is a bit lower.

我想回顧一下您對餾分油前景的評論，我很欣賞有關北美動態的所有討論。但其他地區的產量似乎有些低。

And I wanted to get your thoughts on to the extent that that's transitory in nature, things like lower net exports out of Spain because of the power outages. It seems like Middle East diesel exports are down a lot. Not sure if that is structural or not. So just wondering if you could provide your thoughts on things going on in other parts of the world.

我想聽聽您對這種情況的看法，因為這種情況本質上是暫時的，例如由於停電導致西班牙淨出口下降。看起來中東柴油出口量下降了很多。不確定這是否是結構性的。所以我只是想知道您是否可以對世界其他地方正在發生的事情發表自己的看法。

Yes, Jason, this is Gary. I think, obviously, the strength in diesel is due to low inventories. July, we've been trending at historic low type inventories. And I would say a lot of that really started late last year. Late last year, we had a relatively weak refinery margin environment.

是的，傑森，這是加里。我認為，柴油價格強勁顯然是由於庫存低。七月份，我們的庫存一直處於歷史低點。我想說，很多事情其實是從去年年底開始的。去年年底，我們的煉油廠獲利環境相對較弱。

Based on where inventories were, I would say that the margin environment was too weak.

根據庫存情況，我認為利潤環境太弱了。

And that led to lower refinery utilization, which limited diesel inventories from restocking as they typically do. Then we had a colder winter, which raised heating oil demand and further depleted inventory heading into the first quarter. We have had some refinery shutdowns and then some of the new capacity that come online has really struggled to come up to full rate.

這導致煉油廠利用率下降，從而限制了柴油庫存的正常補充。隨後，我們經歷了一個更寒冷的冬天，這增加了對取暖油的需求，並進一步耗盡了第一季的庫存。我們已經關閉了一些煉油廠，而一些新上線的煉油廠也確實難以達到滿載生產。

So I think supply-demand balances are certainly tighter than expectations based on projected net capacity additions. A shift we've had in 2024, as jet demand increased, it's incentivized refiners to produce jet, which has come at the expense of diesel. In general, one of the things we've been talking about is refiners are running lighter crude diets. That was exacerbated by the Venezuelan sanctions and Canadian wildfires.

因此，我認為，根據預期的淨產能增加，供需平衡肯定比預期的要緊張。2024 年我們經歷了一個轉變，隨著噴射燃料需求的增加，煉油廠被迫生產噴射燃料，而柴油的產量卻減少了。總的來說，我們一直在談論的事情之一是煉油廠正在使用更輕的原油。委內瑞拉的製裁和加拿大的野火加劇了這種情況。

So with tight quality differentials, the incentive to run lighter crudes results in lower distillate yields. And then another factor here is with the poor renewable and biodiesel margins, they've resulted in lower production of those products, which has increased the demand for conventional diesel as well. So I think all those factors have come into play where we are on the low inventories today.

因此，在品質差異較小的情況下，開採較輕原油的動機會導致餾分油產量降低。另一個因素是，再生和生質柴油利潤率較低，導致這些產品的產量下降，也增加了對傳統柴油的需求。所以我認為所有這些因素都發揮了作用，導致我們今天庫存較低。

Okay. And then my other one, I'm going to ask something else that's already been asked, but a bit more specific on the crude quality differentials that you expect to widen out with OPEC adding barrels. And I guess there's been some reporting recently that China wants to stockpile crude inventories in the back half of the year and OPEC tends to price things more attractively to Asian markets than to US markets. So how much of these Middle East barrels do you think will flow to North America and really influence crude quality dips in the back half of the year?

好的。然後我的另一個問題是，我想問一個已經被問過的問題，但更具體地說一下，隨著歐佩克增加產量，您預計原油品質差異會擴大嗎？我想最近有一些報告指出中國希望在今年下半年儲備原油庫存，而歐佩克的定價對亞洲市場比對美國市場更有吸引力。那麼您認為有多少中東石油會流向北美並真正影響下半年原油品質的下降呢？

Well, Jason, I can't say we have a lot of insight into what's going on in China. So I don't know their plans in terms of restocking inventory. I can tell you that we really haven't been buying much crude from historic partners in the Middle East for quite some time, but we have reengaged with them. So the fact that they're reengaging with us tells me that they plan on some of the production making its way to the US. So I'm confident we will see some of those barrels.

嗯，傑森，我不能說我們對中國正在發生的事情有很多了解。所以我不知道他們在補充庫存方面的計劃。我可以告訴你，我們確實已經有一段時間沒有從中東的歷史合作夥伴那裡購買大量原油了，但我們已經重新與他們合作了。因此，他們重新與我們合作這一事實告訴我，他們計劃將部分產品引入美國。因此我相信我們會看到一些這樣的桶子。

Thank you. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments. .

謝謝。我想把發言權交還給布拉爾先生，請他發表最後評論。。

Thank you, Donna. I appreciate everyone joining us today. As always, please feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions. Thanks again, and have a great day, everyone.

謝謝你，唐娜。我感謝今天與我們一起的各位。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。再次感謝，祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day

女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路或退出網路直播，享受剩餘的一天