瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Valero Energy Corp. Third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

各位好，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。現在，我很高興向大家介紹主持人，投資者關係和財務副總裁霍默·布拉爾。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by Lane Riggs, Chairman, CEO and President; Jason Fraser, Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and COO; Rich Walsh, Executive Vice President and General Counsel; as well as several other members of Valero's senior management team.

各位早安，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有瓦萊羅公司董事長、首席執行官兼總裁萊恩·里格斯；執行副總裁兼首席財務官傑森·弗雷澤；執行副總裁兼首席營運官加里·西蒙斯；執行副總裁兼總法律顧問里奇·沃爾什；以及瓦萊羅公司其他幾位高級管理團隊成員。

If you have not received a copy of our earnings release, it's available on our website at investorvalero.com. Included with the release or supplemental tables providing detailed financial information for each of our business segments, along with reconciliations and disclosures for any adjusted financial metrics referenced during today's call. If you have any questions after reviewing these materials, please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team.

如果您尚未收到我們的獲利報告，請造訪我們的網站 investorvalero.com 取得。報告中包含補充表格，其中提供了我們各個業務部門的詳細財務信息，以及今天電話會議中提及的任何調整後財務指標的調節表和披露信息。如果您在閱讀這些資料後有任何疑問，請隨時聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer included in the press release. In summary, it says that statements made in the press release and during this conference call that express the company's or management's expectations or forecasts of future events are forward-looking statements and are intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions under federal securities laws. Actual results may differ from those expressed or implied due to various factors, which are outlined in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提請大家注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總而言之，該聲明指出，新聞稿和本次電話會議中表達公司或管理層對未來事件的預期或預測的聲明均為前瞻性聲明，旨在受到聯邦證券法安全港條款的保護。由於各種因素，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有所不同，這些因素已在我們的盈利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了概述。

I'll now turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在我將把電話交給萊恩，請他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report strong financial results for the third quarter, highlighting our long-standing track record of operational and commercial excellence. Our refinery throughput utilization was 97% with the Gulf Coast and North Atlantic region setting new all-time highs for throughput following last quarter's record performance in the Gulf Coast. Refining margins remained well supported by strong global demand and persistently low inventory levels despite high utilization rates.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。我們很高興地宣布第三季財務業績強勁，凸顯了我們長期以來在營運和商業方面的卓越表現。我們的煉油廠產能利用率達到 97%，墨西哥灣沿岸和北大西洋地區的產能創歷史新高，此前墨西哥灣沿岸地區上一季的業績也創下歷史新高。儘管煉油廠的產能利用率很高，但由於全球需求強勁且庫存水準持續偏低，煉油利潤率仍然得到了很好的支撐。

Supply constraints were driven by refinery rationalizations, delayed ramp-ups in new facilities and ongoing geopolitical disruptions. These market dynamics contributed to the margin strength despite relatively narrow sour crude differentials.

供應受限的原因是煉油廠的合理化調整、新設施投產延遲以及持續的地緣政治動盪。儘管酸性原油價差相對較窄，但這些市場動態仍促進了利潤率的成長。

The ethanol segment also delivered a strong quarter, achieving record production and solid earnings. Strategically, we continue to make progress on the FCC unit optimization project at our St. Charles refinery. This initiative will enhance our ability to produce high value product yields, including high octane alkylate. The $230 million project is expected to begin operations in the second half of 2026.

乙醇業務部門本季表現強勁，產量創歷史新高，獲利穩健。從戰略角度來看，我們在聖查爾斯煉油廠的 FCC 裝置優化專案方面繼續取得進展。這項措施將提高我們生產高價值產品（包括高辛烷值烷基化物）的能力。這項耗資 2.3 億美元的項目預計將於 2026 年下半年開始營運。

Looking ahead, refining fundamentals should remain supported by low inventories and continued supply tightness with planned refinery closures and limited capacity additions beyond 2025. So our crude differentials are also expected to widen with the increased OPEC Plus and Canadian production. In closing, our strong financial results and record operating achievements this quarter are a testament to our commitment to commercial and operational excellence. This, coupled with the strength of our balance sheet should continue to support strong shareholder returns. So with that, Homer, I'll turn the call back over to you.

展望未來，由於計畫中的煉油廠關閉以及2025年後產能新增有限，低庫存和持續的供應緊張狀況應能繼續支撐煉油基本面。因此，隨著歐佩克+和加拿大原油產量的增加，我們的原油價差也預計會擴大。總之，本季我們強勁的財務表現和創紀錄的營運成就證明了我們對商業和營運卓越性的承諾。這一點，再加上我們強勁的資產負債表，應該會繼續支撐股東獲得豐厚的回報。那麼，霍默，我把電話交還給你了。

Thanks, Lane. For the third quarter of 2025, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1.1 billion or $3.53 per share compared to $364 million or $1.14 per share for the third quarter of 2024. Excluding the adjustments shown in the earnings release tables, adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1.1 billion or $3.66 per share for the third quarter of 2025 compared to $371 million or $1.16 per share for the third quarter of 2024. The refining segment reported $1.6 billion of operating income for the third quarter of 2025 compared to $565 million for the third quarter of 2024.

謝謝，萊恩。2025 年第三季度，歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨利潤為 11 億美元，即每股 3.53 美元，而 2024 年第三季為 3.64 億美元，即每股 1.14 美元。除收益發布表中所示的調整外，歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的調整後淨利潤在 2025 年第三季為 11 億美元，即每股 3.66 美元，而 2024 年第三季為 3.71 億美元，即每股 1.16 美元。煉油業務部門報告稱，2025 年第三季營業收入為 16 億美元，而 2024 年第三季為 5.65 億美元。

Adjusted operating income was $1.7 billion for the third quarter of 2025 compared to $568 million for the third quarter of 2024. Refining throughput volumes in the third quarter of 2025 averaged 3.1 million barrels per day or 97% throughput capacity utilization. Adjusted refining cash operating expenses were $4.71 per barrel.

2025 年第三季調整後營業收入為 17 億美元，而 2024 年第三季為 5.68 億美元。2025 年第三季煉油加工量平均為每天 310 萬桶，加工能力利用率為 97%。經調整後的煉油現金營運費用為每桶 4.71 美元。

The renewable diesel segment reported an operating loss of $28 million for the third quarter of 2025 compared to operating income of $35 million for the third quarter of 2024. Renewable Diesel segment sales volumes averaged 2.7 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2025. The ethanol segment reported $183 million of operating income for the third quarter of 2025 compared to $153 million for the third quarter of 2024. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.6 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2025, achieving record production.

2025 年第三季度，再生柴油業務部門的營業虧損為 2,800 萬美元，而 2024 年第三季的營業收入為 3,500 萬美元。2025 年第三季度，再生柴油的日均銷售量為 270 萬加侖。乙醇業務部門報告稱，2025 年第三季營業收入為 1.83 億美元，而 2024 年第三季為 1.53 億美元。2025 年第三季度，乙醇日均產量達 460 萬加侖，創歷史新高。

For the third quarter of 2025, G&A expenses were $246 million, net interest expense was $139 million and income tax expense was $390 million. Depreciation and amortization expense was $836 million, which includes approximately $100 million of incremental depreciation expense related to our plan to cease refining operations at our Benicia refinery next year.

2025 年第三季度，一般及行政費用為 2.46 億美元，淨利息支出為 1.39 億美元，所得稅支出為 3.9 億美元。折舊和攤銷費用為 8.36 億美元，其中包括與我們計劃明年停止貝尼西亞煉油廠煉油業務相關的約 1 億美元的增量折舊費用。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.9 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Included in this amount was a $325 million favorable impact from working capital and $86 million of adjusted net cash used in operating activities associated with the other joint venture members share of DGD. Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.6 billion in the third quarter of 2025.

2025年第三季經營活動產生的淨現金為19億美元。該金額包含營運資本帶來的 3.25 億美元有利影響，以及與合資企業其他成員在 DGD 中所佔份額相關的經營活動所使用的 8,600 萬美元調整後淨現金。剔除這些項目後，2025 年第三季經營活動產生的調整後淨現金流量為 16 億美元。

Regarding investing activities, we made $409 million of capital investments in the third quarter of 2025, of which $364 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business. Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD and other variable interest entities capital investments attributable to Valero were $382 million in the third quarter of 2025.

在投資活動方面，我們在 2025 年第三季進行了 4.09 億美元的資本投資，其中 3.64 億美元用於維持業務，包括扭虧為盈、催化劑和監管合規的成本，其餘部分用於發展業務。不包括歸屬於 DGD 其他合資成員股份和其他可變利益實體的資本投資，歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資在 2025 年第三季為 3.82 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $1.3 billion to our stockholders in the third quarter of 2025, of which $351 million was paid as dividends and $931 million was for the purchase of approximately 5.7 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 78% for the quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned over $2.6 billion through dividends and stock buybacks for a payout ratio of 68%.

轉入融資活動。我們在 2025 年第三季向股東返還了 13 億美元，其中 3.51 億美元作為股息支付，9.31 億美元用於購買約 570 萬股普通股，該季度派息率為 78%。今年迄今為止，我們已透過股利和股票回購返還了超過 26 億美元，股利支付率為 68%。

With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $8.4 billion of total debt, $2.2 billion of total finance lease obligations and $4.8 billion of cash and cash equivalents. The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 18% as of September 30, 2025. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

就我們的資產負債表而言，本季末我們的總債務為 84 億美元，總融資租賃義務為 22 億美元，現金及現金等價物為 48 億美元。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的負債資本比率為 18%。本季末，我們資金充裕，擁有 53 億美元的可用流動資金（不包括現金）。

Turning to guidance. We expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2025 to be approximately $1.9 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalyst, regulatory compliance and joint venture investments. About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth.

尋求指導。我們預計瓦萊羅公司 2025 年的資本投資約為 19 億美元，其中包括用於企業重組、催化劑、監管合規和合資企業投資的支出。其中約 16 億美元用於維持業務運營，其餘部分用於業務成長。

For modeling our fourth quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.78 million to 1.83 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 420,000 to 440,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 240,000 to 260,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 485,000 to 505,000 barrels per day.

為了模擬我們第四季的營運情況，我們預計煉油加工量將落在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸地區為每天 178 萬至 183 萬桶；中大陸地區為每天 42 萬至 44 萬桶；西海岸地區為每天 24 萬至 26 萬桶；北大西洋地區為每天 48.5 萬至西海岸地區為每天 24 萬至 26 萬桶；北大西洋地區為每天 48.5 萬至西海岸地區為每天 24 萬至 26 萬桶；北大西洋地區為每天 48.5 萬至西海岸地區為每天 24 萬至 26 萬桶；北大西洋地區為每天 48.5 萬至西海岸地區為每天 24 萬至 26 萬桶；北大西洋地區為每天 48.5 萬至西海岸地區為每天 50.5 萬桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the fourth quarter to be approximately $4.80 per barrel. For the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes of approximately 258 million gallons in the fourth quarter, reflecting lower production due to economics. Operating expenses should be $0.52 per gallon, including $0.24 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們預計第四季煉油現金營運費用約為每桶 4.80 美元。對於再生柴油領域，我們預計第四季度銷量約為 2.58 億加侖，這反映出由於經濟原因導致產量下降。營運費用應為每加侖 0.52 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.24 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.6 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.40 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization. For the fourth quarter, net interest expense should be about $135 million. Total depreciation and amortization expense in the fourth quarter should be approximately $815 million, which includes approximately $100 million of incremental depreciation expense related to our plan to cease refining operations at our Benicia refinery next year.

預計我們乙醇業務部門第四季日產量將達到 460 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.40 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。第四季淨利息支出應約為 1.35 億美元。第四季折舊和攤銷總費用約為 8.15 億美元，其中包括與我們計劃明年停止貝尼西亞煉油廠煉油廠煉油廠業務相關的約 1 億美元的增量折舊費用。

We expect this incremental depreciation related to the Benicia refinery to be included in D&A for the next two quarters, resulting in a quarterly earnings impact of approximately $0.25 per share based on current shares outstanding. For 2025, we still expect G&A expenses to be approximately $985 million.

我們預計與貝尼西亞煉油廠相關的這部分新增折舊將在未來兩個季度計入折舊和攤銷，根據當前流通股計算，這將導致季度收益對每股產生約 0.25 美元的影響。我們預計 2025 年的一般及行政費用約為 9.85 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. (Event Instructions)

我們的開場白到此結束。（活動須知）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Sam Margolin, Wells Fargo.

Sam Margolin，富國銀行。

On the comment from your opening remarks as you mentioned, not much of a contribution from heavy crude this quarter on differentials. I guess we're like a year into TMX barrels sort of fully flowing. And I wonder if you could share any insights you have into the differential side as kind of 12 months into TMX and then just on the overall kind of availability picture that's emerging into 2026.

正如您在開場白中所提到的，本季重質原油對價差的貢獻並不大。我猜我們已經進入 TMX 桶裝水全面投產一年左右了。我想知道您能否分享一下您對 TMX 成立 12 個月以來的差異化發展以及到 2026 年整體供應情況的見解。

Yeah. So I would tell you, we've been somewhat -- I'll start with TMX, somewhat disappointed that TMX hasn't had as much of an impact on West Coast crude values and has really ANS didn't come off like we anticipated would. And most of those barrels are flowing to the Far East.

是的。所以我想說，我們有點失望——先說說TMX吧——TMX對西海岸原油價格的影響並不大，而且ANS的表現也沒有達到我們預期的水平。而且大部分桶裝原油都流向了遠東地區。

In the broader sense, in terms of quality differentials, we have seen the quality differentials move quite a bit. WCS now trading at a 12% discount to Brent, Maya 14% discount to Brent. Those have been as narrow as 7% previously in the year. On medium sours, we had seen discounts as narrow as 2.5%. That's widened up closer to an 8% discount.

從更廣義的角度來看，就品質差異而言，我們已經看到品質差異發生了相當大的變化。WCS原油目前交易價格較布蘭特原油折價12%，Maya原油較布蘭特原油折價14%。今年早些時候，這一差距曾小至 7%。對於中等酸度的葡萄酒，我們曾見過折扣幅度小至 2.5%。折扣幅度已擴大至接近 8%。

So discounts have certainly moved to the point where we are seeing an economic benefit in our system to running medium and heavy sour crudes. Our expectation is you'll continue to see those widen. Although OPEC began unwinding their production cuts in April, much of that volume was offset by an increase in summer power burn.

因此，折扣力道確實已經達到了這樣的程度：在我們的系統中，運作中質和重質含硫原油能夠帶來經濟效益。我們預計這些差距將繼續擴大。儘管歐佩克從 4 月開始逐步取消減產，但夏季電力消耗的增加抵消了大部分減產幅度。

So it wasn't really until September that we saw any meaningful increase in the export volume from OPEC. The pricing signals that are there still suggest that most of that incremental OPEC volume will be directed towards Asia.

所以直到 9 月份，我們才真正看到歐佩克出口量出現實質成長。現有的價格訊號仍然表明，歐佩克新增的大部分石油產量將流向亞洲。

However, we've been seeing increased offers to the US market, especially for Rocky crude. We'll be processing both Basra and Kirk Cook during the fourth quarter in our system. The arbitrage to move [Marz] into Asia has closed. Additionally, we're starting to see Asia push back on some of the Latin American grades, which ultimately is beginning to pressure medium sours in the Gulf Coast.

然而，我們看到對美國市場的供應量增加，尤其是對洛磯山脈原油的供應量。我們將在第四季度處理 Basra 和 Kirk Cook 的相關資訊。將[Marz]引入亞洲的套利機會已經關閉。此外，我們開始看到亞洲對一些拉丁美洲的優質葡萄酒進行抵制，這最終開始給墨西哥灣沿岸的中等酸度葡萄酒帶來壓力。

So all of those effects are things that we're starting to see in October. And as medium sour discounts widen, you'll see heavy sours react remain competitive with medium sour. So we anticipate that to continue to happen as we move through the fourth quarter.

所以所有這些影響都是我們在十月開始看到的。隨著中等酸度啤酒折扣力度的加大，你會發現重度酸度啤酒也會做出反應，以保持與中等酸度啤酒的競爭力。因此，我們預計這種情況在第四季還會繼續發生。

In addition to just OPEC, heavy Canadian production has continued to ramp up as well as some of the deepwater medium sour production in the Gulf. And then you've seen Chinese demand has been very high for medium and heavy sour barrels as they fill their SPR. At some point in time, you'd expect that to be full and they would back off.

除了歐佩克之外，加拿大重油產量也持續成長，墨西哥灣的一些深水中等含硫原油產量也在增加。然後，您也看到了，隨著中國填滿他們的SPR（戰略儲備庫），對中等和重度酸酒桶的需求非常高。總有一天，你會覺得那裡會爆滿，然後他們就會退縮。

I think the real wildcard here is with the headlines on ramp-up in Russian sanctions yesterday. In the past, we felt like sanctions were largely ineffective. They just result in the change in trade flows. At least if you see the market reaction today, the market believes this round of sanctions could be successful and result in some Russian oil being taken off the market.

我認為真正的變數在於昨天有關加大對俄製裁力度的新聞報道。過去，我們覺得制裁在很大程度上是無效的。它們只會導致貿易流向的變化。至少從今天的市場反應來看，市場認為這一輪制裁可能會成功，並導致部分俄羅斯石油從市場上消失。

On paper, OPEC has the capacity to make up that lost supply, but that certainly could be a headwind to quality differentials. However, it would be very bullish for product cracks.

從理論上講，歐佩克有能力彌補損失的供應，但這肯定會對品質差異造成不利影響。然而，這對產品裂紋來說將是一個非常利好的信號。

Okay. I guess we'll keep it on industry macro for a second, if that's okay. And just on the capacity globally next year, we've encountered some feedback about what looks like a fairly heavy schedule of capacity additions next year after a number of years of kind of trailing demand or lagging demand. If you have any insights on to the timing of the capacity additions? Or what do you think we can expect reliability-wise or just a change in balances. That would be much appreciated.

好的。我想我們先繼續討論一下產業宏觀層面，可以嗎？至於明年全球產能方面，我們收到了一些回饋，表示在經歷了多年的需求落後之後，明年產能新增計畫似乎相當密集。您對產能擴張的時間安排有什麼見解嗎？或者，您認為在可靠性方面我們可以期待什麼，或者只是平衡方面會有什麼變化？我們將非常感激。

Yes. So our numbers would show about 460,000 barrels a day of total light product demand growth next year. Net capacity additions are about 415,000 barrels a day. So those numbers, if you assume somewhere around an 80% total light product yield on crude, you would still have tighter supply-demand balances next year than what you have this year.

是的。因此，我們的數據顯示，明年輕質原油產品總需求量將成長約 46 萬桶/日。淨新增產能約為每天 415,000 桶。所以，假設原油輕質產品總收率在 80% 左右，那麼明年的供需平衡仍將比今年更加緊張。

In addition to that, I think a lot of the forecast you see assume that new capacity that started up is going to run at nameplate. We haven't seen them be able to get up to nameplate yet. And our expectation is a lot of that capacity won't hit nameplate next year. And then Russian capacity is a real wildcard here, also 1.5 million barrels a day of Russian capacity off-line.

除此之外，我認為你看到的許多預測都假設新投產的產能將以額定功率運作。我們還沒看到他們能站到銘牌位置。我們預計，明年這些產能中的許多都無法投入使用。此外，俄羅斯的產能也是一個真正的變數，俄羅斯每天還有 150 萬桶的產能處於停產狀態。

A lot of the forecasts assume that Russian capacity is up and running beginning of the year, our expectation is it will take longer to get that up and running as well. So we expect things to be tighter next year as well.

許多預測都假設俄羅斯的產能將在年初投入運營，但我們預計俄羅斯的產能投入營運也需要更長時間。所以我們預計明年情勢也會更加緊張。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

I just quickly wanted to follow-up on that. We are seeing a massive spike in global outages. Russia, Dangote, [Dosbogers]. I think over the weekend, there were issues where you had Romania having issues. So what are you seeing in terms of global product markets out there, all these outages and what they are causing for the margins out there? If you could talk a little bit about that.

我只是想簡單地跟進一下這件事。全球範圍內的網路中斷數量出現了大幅激增。俄羅斯，丹格特[Dosbogers]我認為上週末羅馬尼亞那邊出現了一些問題。那麼，您如何看待全球產品市場，以及這些停產事件對利潤率造成的影響？如果您能稍微談談這方面的話。

Manav, this is Gary. I think we've seen good export demand all year fact that we've been unable to restrike inventories in the United States is keeping somewhat of a pull into the domestic market, but the export markets are very good; continue to see really good export demand for gasoline into Latin America and South America on the diesel side, a bigger pull into South America than what we've been seeing freight has really been volatile. And so on the export arbs going to Europe has kind of been up and down and it's really just freight that's kind of been what opens and closes that arm.

馬納夫，這位是加里。我認為我們全年都看到了良好的出口需求。事實上，由於我們無法在美國補充庫存，這在一定程度上拉動了國內市場的需求，但出口市場非常好；我們看到對拉丁美洲和南美洲的汽油出口需求持續強勁，而柴油方面，對南美洲的需求比我們之前看到的更大。貨運市場確實波動很大。因此，對歐洲的出口套利一直起起伏伏，真正決定這條貿易管道開閉的只是貨運量。

If you look today, that arb is marginally open. And while I think you'll start to see a heavier flow going to Europe from the US Gulf Coast on diesel.

如果今天來看，這個套利機會略微開放。而且我認為，從美國墨西哥灣沿岸到歐洲的柴油運輸量將會開始增加。

Perfect. My quick follow-up is on the capital returns. A big jump in the buybacks. And should we assume if margins remain well above mid-cycle like they are then your payout ratio remaining the same, you would continue to buy back your stock as you did in the third quarter? If you could talk a little bit about the capital discipline as well as the return to shareholders.

完美的。我接下來要問的是關於資本回報的問題。回購規模大幅成長。我們是否可以假設，如果利潤率像現在這樣遠高於週期中期水平，並且您的派息率保持不變，您會像第三季度那樣繼續回購股票？如果您能談談資本紀律以及股東回報的問題就更好了。

Yes. Manav, it's Homer. Absolutely. I mean we've talked about this for the last several quarters. We've been in this mode where effectively all excess free cash flow goes towards share buybacks, and you saw that this quarter as well. You had a small build in cash, but that was largely because of working capital. But I think you should continue to assume that we stay in that mode where any excess free cash flow goes to share repurchases.

是的。馬納夫，我是荷馬。絕對地。我的意思是，我們已經討論這個問題好幾個季度了。我們一直處於這種模式，幾乎所有多餘的自由現金流都用於股票回購，本季你們也看到了這一點。你們累積了一些現金，但這主要是因為有流動資金。但我認為你應該繼續假設我們保持這種模式，即任何多餘的自由現金流都用於股票回購。

Perfect. You have done exactly what you had said that excess cash will go to shareholders store.

完美的。你們確實兌現了先前的承諾，多餘的現金將歸股東所有。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

尼爾梅塔，高盛集團。

Yes. Lane, there's been a lot of talk about crude that's on the water and in transit and some estimates have it north of 3 million barrels a day, if you look at some of the shipping tracking data. You guys have unique visibility into whether that crude is actually on the water. And so I'd be curious how your commercial team is seeing it.

是的。萊恩，關於海上和運輸途中的原油有很多討論，如果你查看一些航運追蹤數據，一些估計表明，原油日產量超過 300 萬桶。你們對原油是否真的在水面上有著獨特的洞察力。所以我很想知道你們的商務團隊對此有何看法。

And do you think it's going to land here in OECD or if that moves into China specifically, and I say that in the spirit of to your point of crude differentials potentially starting to widen out, do you start to see that as the factor that could be the catalyst? And maybe you could talk about Iraq in particular because that could be a leading indicator.

你認為這種情況會波及經合組織嗎？還是會蔓延到中國？我這麼說是想呼應你剛才提到的原油價差可能開始擴大的觀點，你是否認為這會成為催化劑？或許你可以重點談談伊拉克，因為這可能是先行指標。

Neil, I'm going to sort of pass the ball over to Gary to answer that question.

尼爾，我打算把這個問題交給加里回答。

Yes, Neil, I kind of alluded to that a little bit previously, but where we see the big change is a lot more Rocky barrels flowing this way. As I mentioned, we have bought Balsara. We've also bought coker, and we see that to be a portion of our diet in the fourth quarter and moving forward is really the big change that we've seen. Most of the other barrels seem to be making their way to Asia.

是的，尼爾，我之前也稍微提到過這一點，但我們看到最大的變化是，更多的洛磯山脈的桶裝啤酒會流向這裡。正如我之前提到的，我們已經購買了巴爾薩拉樹皮。我們還購買了可卡因，我們認為在第四季度及以後，可卡因將成為我們飲食的一部分，這是我們看到的真正最大的變化。其他大部分桶裝貨物似乎都運往了亞洲。

All right. We'll keep on watching. And then the other question is just on some of the non-refining businesses did better than expected than we expected this quarter. Ethanol continues to perform well. And I guess DGD is getting closer to profitability. So can you talk about both of those businesses and whether we're -- there's sustainability at the ethanol margins and weather post the RVO, we are on a path back to the black in DGD.

好的。我們會繼續關注。另一個問題是，本季一些非煉油業務的表現是否超出了我們的預期。乙醇表現依然良好。我猜DGD離獲利越來越近了。那麼，您能否談談這兩個業務，以及我們——在 RVO 之後，乙醇利潤率和天氣是否具有可持續性，DGD 是否正在走上扭虧為盈的道路。

Neil, this is Eric. Ethanol continues to look positive. I think a lot of that is we've had a record corn crop. Ethanol demand has been strong, both domestically and in the export markets. We're seeing the continued interest in countries going from E0 to E10. Canada has gone to E15 in some of the provinces. And you see Brazil and India looking at moving from the E20s to the E30.

尼爾，這位是埃里克。乙醇市場前景依然樂觀。我認為這很大程度上是因為我們今年的玉米產量創下了歷史新高。無論是國內市場還是出口市場，乙醇需求都非常強勁。我們看到，各國對從 E0 級升至 E10 級的興趣持續高漲。加拿大部分省份已實施E15標準。你可以看到巴西和印度正在考慮從 E20 輪胎過渡到 E30 輪胎。

And so all of this is creating more ethanol demand in the world. And being the largest exporter of ethanol, that favors our segment pretty well. So cheap feedstock and lots of demand. So ethanol, I think outlook is good and continues to look good in the future.

因此，所有這些都導致​​了全球對乙醇需求的增加。作為最大的乙醇出口國，這對我們這個產業來說非常有利。原料價格低廉，需求量大。所以，我認為乙醇的前景良好，未來也會繼續保持良好勢頭。

On DGD, you're exactly right. We've seen throughout the year, there's just been a lot of impact from tariffs and policy downturns in the US. We've seen fat prices rising for the better part of the year. And I think just most recently, we are seeing enough rationalization in both biodiesel and renewable diesel where fat prices are finally starting to soften. And with that lower fat price, we've seen DGD margins return back to positive EBITDA. So that's a good sign. That's a good sign for the fourth quarter.

關於DGD，你的說法完全正確。我們已經看到，今年以來，美國的關稅和政策下滑產生了很大的影響。今年大部分時間裡，我們都看到脂肪價格上漲。而且我認為，就在最近，生質柴油和再生柴油的價格都出現了足夠的合理化趨勢，脂肪價格終於開始回落。隨著脂肪價格的降低，我們看到DGD利潤率恢復到正EBITDA水準。這是一個好兆頭。這對第四季來說是個好兆頭。

Obviously, with the PTC changing Jan 1 on all foreign feedstocks as well as SAP, that will be a challenge as we start 2026. But I think everyone seems to expect that the RVO will be net positive for renewables. That's a lot of speculation because there is a lot of back and forth on these policies right now. But I think the general view is the number is probably going up and will probably be supportive of renewable diesel.

顯然，由於所有外國原料以及 SAP 的 PTC 將於 1 月 1 日發生變化，這將對我們 2026 年的開始構成挑戰。但我認為大家似乎都預期RVO對再生能源的淨收益將是正面的。目前這些政策有很多反复，所以這只是很多猜測。但我認為普遍的看法是，這個數字可能會上升，並且可能會支持再生柴油的發展。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

特蕾莎·陳，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to talk about your PADD III and PADD II assets and [light us] 2 major product pipeline binding open seasons that have been announced over the decent weeks to move more volumes from these regions into PADD V given ongoing West Coast refinery closures, including your own Benicia facility.

我想談談你們的 PADD III 和 PADD II 資產，以及最近幾週宣布的兩條主要產品管道招標開放期，目的是將這些地區的更多產量轉移到 PADD V，因為西海岸煉油廠（包括你們自己的貝尼西亞煉油廠）正在關閉。

So if one of these 200,000 barrels per day plus systems were to be built, how do you anticipate this could reshape flows and margin capture across your Gulf Coast and the continent assets? And is there any evolution would it make sense for you to be a shipper on one of these types.

那麼，如果建造一個每日處理量超過 20 萬桶的系統，您預計這將如何改變您墨西哥灣沿岸和大陸資產的流量和利潤獲取方式？那麼，隨著產業的發展，成為這類貨運商是否還有意義呢？

Yes, Theresa, this is Gary. We engaged in conversations with both the projects that we think could go forward. In both cases, we'll have to wait and see what the final tariff numbers are. It looks like the tariff would be set such a it's competitive versus the Jones Act movement to the West Coast. But we believe we can be more competitive with foreign flag waterborne movements into the West Coast.

是的，特蕾莎，這是加里。我們與這兩個我們認為可以推進的項目都進行了對話。無論哪種情況，我們都必須等待最終關稅數字出爐。看起來關稅的設定方式將使其與瓊斯法案向西海岸的轉移具有競爭力。但我們相信，我們可以在與外國船隻往來西海岸的競爭中更具優勢。

In addition to that, we like the waterborne movements because, one, the volatility on the West Coast, if you take a position on that pipe, you could be shipping into a closed [arb] of a good portion of the time. And then we like the waterborne option as well because it allows you to source barrels from anywhere in the world and take advantage of international arbs that can be open.

除此之外，我們喜歡水運貨物的走勢，因為，首先，西海岸的波動性很大，如果你在那條航線上建倉，你可能大部分時間都在進行套利交易。此外，我們也喜歡水運方式，因為它允許你從世界各地採購酒桶，並利用開放的國際套利機會。

So we have connectivity through McKee already to El Paso and in the Phoenix. So we have a lot of that activity as well as based on the pipe from Houston, El Paso. So I don't think you'll see us participate in those projects.

所以我們已經透過 McKee 連接到了埃爾帕索和鳳凰城。所以，我們也有很多這類活動，這些活動都是基於來自休士頓和埃爾帕索的管道。所以我覺得你們不會看到我們參與這些計畫。

This is Lane. The second part of that would be, you would expect it to firm up the group in the Gulf Coast as barrels do get committed and move West, assuming those projects go through.

這是萊恩。第二部分是，隨著原油被運往西部（假設這些項目得以實施），預計這將鞏固墨西哥灣沿岸地區的石油產業。

Thank you. That's very helpful. And separately, Gary, there's been some noise in the DOEs as of recently I'd love to get your take on what you're seeing across your domestic distribution channels and your commentary on domestic demand in addition to the color you gave already on exports?

謝謝。這非常有幫助。另外，Gary，最近能源部那邊出現了一些動靜，我很想聽聽你對國內分銷管道的看法，以及你對國內需求的評論，還有你之前對出口情況的描述？

Sure. If you look at our gasoline demand, I think in our system, we would say year-over-year gasoline demand is flat to slightly down, pretty similar to what's in the DOEs. Third quarter, our volumes were flat year-over-year. It looks to us like vehicle miles traveled are up year-over-year, but probably not enough to offset the more efficient automobile fleet. So again, probably flat to slightly down gasoline demand.

當然。如果你看一下我們的汽油需求，我認為在我們的體系中，我們會說汽油需求同比持平或略有下降，與美國能源部的數據非常相似。第三季度，我們的銷售量與去年同期持平。在我們看來，車輛行駛里程逐年增加，但可能不足以抵消更有效率的汽車車隊帶來的影響。所以，汽油需求可能會再次持平或略有下降。

As I mentioned, export demand looks good. When you look at gasoline fundamentals in addition to good export demand, the transatlantic arb to ship from Europe into New York Harbor is closed, and it's actually closed on paper all the way through the first quarter. So really for this time of year, gasoline fundamentals look about as constructive as you could hope for. Obviously, we've transitioned out of driving season, producing high RVP winter grade gasoline, so you wouldn't expect a lot of strength in gasoline cracks in the fourth quarter.

正如我之前提到的，出口需求看起來不錯。除了良好的出口需求外，從汽油基本面來看，從歐洲到紐約港的跨大西洋套利航線已經關閉，而且實際上在第一季帳面上也一直處於關閉狀態。所以就每年的這個時候而言，汽油的基本面看起來已經非常樂觀了。顯然，我們已經告別了駕車季節，生產高RVP冬季汽油，所以你不會指望第四季度汽油裂解價差會有多大波動。

Jet demand, we're continuing to see good nominations from the airline. So again, comparing to the DOEs which show about a 4% bump in jet demand. That looks consistent with what we're seeing in the market. And then finally, on diesel. In our system, in the third quarter, year-over-year sales were up 8%. I don't think that's representative of the broader market. DOE data showing about a 2% year-over-year increase in diesel demand is probably close.

噴射機需求方面，我們持續看到航空公司提出的良好提名。所以，再看看美國能源部的數據，數據顯示噴射機需求增加了約 4%。這與我們目前在市場上看到的情況一致。最後，改用柴油。在我們的系統中，第三季的銷售額年增了 8%。我認為這並不能代表整個市場的情況。美國能源部數據顯示柴油需求年增約 2%，這項數據可能比較接近實際情況。

We've seen good agricultural demand in our system. That continues. It's the harvest season starting to wind down, but then you'll start heating oil season, which again be a good pop in demand. And as I mentioned, good export demand as well. Freight volatility is hindering that, but the demand is there.

我們的系統內農業需求良好。這種情況還在繼續。收穫季節即將結束，但隨後將迎來取暖油季節，屆時需求將大幅成長。正如我之前提到的，出口需求也很好。貨運市場的波動阻礙了這一進程，但需求仍然存在。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特，沃爾夫研究公司。

Lane, your throughput performance has been extraordinary again. My question is kind of a bigger picture. I guess it's kind of an AI, machine learning kind of question. And I'm wondering if there's a change going on in how you're running your business, things like planned turnarounds just in time as opposed to the behavioral once every four year kind of deliver. Is there anything happening that would lead us to think some of this throughput performance could be sustainable, not just for you but perhaps for the broader industry.

Lane，你的吞吐量表現再次非常出色。我的問題涉及一個更宏觀的問題。我想這應該算是人工智慧、機器學習的問題吧。我想知道你們的經營方式是否發生了變化，例如從每四年一次的被動式交付轉變為及時的計劃性轉型。是否有任何跡象表明，這種吞吐量性能不僅對您而言是可持續的，而且對整個行業而言也可能是可持續的？

Doug, I'm going to have Greg Bram to sort of start off on this question.

道格，我先請格雷格·布拉姆來回答這個問題。

Doug, so the journey you're talking about related to how we plan turnarounds. We've embarked on that for, gosh, probably at least a decade. So I wouldn't say there's a shift there, but we definitely have reaped some benefits from the kind of the approach we take now, which aligns with kind of the way you described it.

道格，所以你所說的旅程與我們如何計劃扭虧為盈有關。我們已經為此努力了，哎呀，可能至少有十年了。所以我不會說這方面發生了轉變，但我們確實從現在採取的方法中獲得了一些好處，這和你描述的方式有點一致。

But if you want to talk about AI in general, I'd say that we're probably cautiously optimistic about how that can help us further improve our availability. We're evaluating a number of places where we can use that technology. As you'd expect, focusing on areas where we think we can create some tangible value and we've deployed that in some of those new techniques and a few applications.

但如果你想談論人工智慧的整體發展，我會說，我們對它如何幫助我們進一步提高可用性持謹慎樂觀態度。我們正在評估一些可以使用這項技術的地方。正如你所預料的那樣，我們專注於那些我們認為可以創造一些切實價值的領域，並且我們已經將這種價值運用到一些新技術和一些應用程式中。

But I think one of the key learnings that we picked up as we've embarked on looking at AI machine learning applications is that you really have to have good quality data of your operation to have a successful use of that kind of a tool. And I think it's an advantage for us because we've embarked on an effort to improve that data and gather that data in kind of a consistent way kind of consistent practices across our system, again, probably 10 or 15 years ago.

但我認為，我們在研究人工智慧機器學習應用的過程中學到的一個關鍵經驗是，要成功使用這類工具，你必須擁有高品質的營運數據。我認為這對我們來說是一個優勢，因為我們從大約 10 到 15 年前就開始努力改進數據，並在整個系統中以某種一致的方式收集數據，採用某種一致的做法。

And so having that data makes it makes the opportunity to try to use that to make further improvements more real. And so we start from a good place. You've mentioned the quality of our operation today, good performance to start with. But again, some optimism that AI type techniques can help us make some further improvements.

因此，有了這些數據，就更有可能利用這些數據進行進一步的改進。所以，我們從一個不錯的起點出發。您提到了我們今天的營運質量，開局表現良好。但是，我們仍然樂觀地認為，人工智慧技術可以幫助我們取得一些進一步的進展。

I appreciate the answer. I guess we're trying to figure out if we should lift our expectations of mid-cycle throughput for Valero. I guess that was at the rear of my question, but I appreciate the insights. My follow-up, and I apologize to Homer specifically because I've had a couple of chances to talk to him this morning about this already. But I'm trying to understand what's going on with the cash flow because your tax rate is obviously up a little bit on mix.

我很感謝你的回答。我想我們正在努力弄清楚是否應該提高對瓦萊羅公司週期中期產能的預期。我想這大概是我問題的後半部分，但我很感謝您的見解。我的後續回覆是，我特別要向 Homer 道歉，因為今天早上我已經有好幾次機會和他談過這件事了。但我正在努力了解現金流方面的情況，因為你們的稅率顯然因混合經營而略有上升。

But if we look at the translation of your earnings to your cash flow, a big beat on earnings didn't show up in cash flow. And we're trying to figure out if there are some transitory issues and there don't necessarily go into all the specifics, but is cash tax part of that? Or was there another reason that this might be seems a transitory quarter from that standpoint, maybe for Jason.

但如果我們看一下你的收益轉化為現金流的情況，就會發現收益大幅超出預期並沒有反映在現金流上。我們正在努力弄清楚是否存在一些暫時性問題，雖然不一定涉及所有細節，但現金稅是否包含在其中？或者，從這個角度來看，這似乎是一個過渡性的季度，還有其他原因嗎？也許對傑森來說是這樣。

Hey Doug, it's Homer. I mean, you'll see this when you see the Q file, but part of that is some -- like PTC, for example, you book it within earnings and then obviously, the payment comes in later. So you'll see that as a deduct from net cash flow from operations. So that's one of the big variances. Again, you'll see that when you see the statement of cash flow isn't the key.

嘿，道格，我是荷馬。我的意思是，當你查看 Q 文件時就會看到這一點，但其中一部分是——例如 PTC，你將其計入收益，然後顯然，付款會在之後到達。因此，你會看到這筆款項從經營活動產生的淨現金流中扣除。這是其中一個很大的差異。再次強調，現金流量表並不是關鍵。

So no tax issue, Homer, no temporary tax issues.

所以沒有稅務問題，荷馬，沒有暫時的稅務問題。

There might be some small deferred tax items, but nothing that's substantial.

可能會有一些小額遞延稅項，但不會有實質的增加。

All right. We'll have to wait in the queue appreciate.

好的。我們需要排隊等候，謝謝。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞安·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Maybe one on refining utilization. US refining utilization has been quite strong versus historical norms over the last 6 months. Any thoughts on drivers of this, whether it's an impact of exited a period of heavy maintenance over the last couple of years? And any thoughts on whether like suggestions that this -- that would prevent this from normalizing as we head into next year? Or are there reasons to believe that we can -- the US system can continue to running this hard?

或許可以寫一篇關於精煉利用率的文章。過去6個月，美國煉油廠的開工率一直遠高於歷史平均。對此有何看法？是否與過去幾年的大規模維護期結束有關？那麼，對於諸如此類的建議，是否有任何想法可以阻止這種情況在明年變得正常化？或者，有理由相信我們可以──美國的體制可以繼續如此高強度地運作下去？

Ryan, it's Lane. So you're talking about just the US industry refining utilizations improved over the last few years.

瑞恩，我是萊恩。所以你指的是過去幾年美國煉油業的利用率有所提高。

Yeah. I mean it's been very strong this year, not like over the last four or five months.

是的。我的意思是，今年以來它一直表現非常強勁，不像過去四到五個月那樣。

I'll start and let Gary or Greg tune me afterwards. I think we started on the journey, I'm going to say 15 years ago, to work extensively on our reliability, and we actually showed that this could be done. I think A lot of the rest of the industry is sort of working on the same things. They're getting better at it, being more careful in their execution.

我先開始，之後請 Gary 或 Greg 幫我調音。我認為我們大約在 15 年前就開始致力於提高可靠性，而且我們實際上已經證明了這是可以做到的。我認為業內其他很多公司也在做同樣的事情。他們在這方面做得越來越好，執行起來也更加謹慎。

The systems are getting better, whether like the previous question, from Doug, how many people are using something that they might call AI. I don't know, but there are systems out there to let you execute turnarounds better, do your maintenance better, have some predictive capabilities with respect to failure mechanism, which all that improves what we actually term is availability. Even through -- even better scheduling, things like this. And I think generally, the industry has done a little better job on this. So that's how I would answer it.

系統正在變得越來越好，無論是像 Doug 之前提出的問題那樣，有多少人正在使用他們可能稱之為人工智慧的東西。我不知道，但是市面上有一些系統可以讓你更好地執行檢修，更好地進行維護，對故障機制有一定的預測能力，所有這些都能提高我們所說的可用性。即使——甚至更好的日程安排，諸如此類的事情。而且我認為，整體而言，業界在這方面做得稍微好一點。這就是我的回答。

Lane, just maybe the only thing I would add -- the only thing I think about when I think about this past summer versus some of the previous periods is we didn't really have a lot of extreme weather throughout the summer and refineries run well when you kind of got nice ambient conditions. And so I think we all have been incented to run hard for -- throughout these different periods.

Lane，我可能唯一要補充的是——當我回想起去年夏天與之前一些時期相比時，我唯一想到的是，整個夏天我們並沒有遇到太多極端天氣，而煉油廠在環境條件良好的情況下運作良好。所以我認為，在這些不同的時期，我們都受到了激勵，努力奮鬥。

Could be maintenance part of it. It could just be that when you're not dealing with a lot of really hot temperatures, you can definitely tune up the operation and eke out that last little bit. So I don't have proof of that. But when I think about how our operation runs, I can see that being a positive impact this past summer.

可能是維護保養的一部分。或許正是因為在不太高溫的環境下，你才能更好地調整操作，從而最大限度地延長使用壽命。所以我沒有證據。但當我思考我們的運作方式時，我意識到這在過去的這個夏天產生了積極的影響。

Well, that's a great point. Hurricane, we have not hurricane activities to be given (multiple speakers) --

嗯，這是一個很好的觀點。颶風，我們沒有颶風相關的活動需要進行。（多位發言者）——

Right. Maybe one other, as we think about the fourth quarter here. During the third quarter, there were a number of things that were -- I mean, you were a great quarter, but there are a number of things that were got, I would say, like modest headwinds on margin capture, whether it was narrow differentials crude backwardation, some West Coast jet fuel dynamics and secondary products, et cetera.

正確的。或許還有另一個，因為我們現在正在考慮第四季。第三季有很多事情——我的意思是，你們這個季度表現很棒，但也有一些事情，例如利潤率獲取方面出現了一些小的阻力，無論是原油現貨溢價差收窄，還是西海岸航空燃油動態和二級產品等等。

Many of these appear to have reversed or improved here early on in the fourth quarter. Any thoughts on direction of some of these trends that may impact the type of capture of profitability that we see during the fourth quarter and what looks like a pretty strong environment.

其中許多情況似乎在第四季初有所逆轉或改善。對於可能影響第四季獲利模式以及目前看來相當強勁的市場環境的某些趨勢走向，您有什麼看法？

Yes, Ryan, it's Greg. It's early for the fourth quarter, right? And you did mention a few of the things that have turned more favorable as we've gotten started out here in October. A couple of things I always think about as we approach the winter season, we'll blend more butane into gasoline as RVP shifts to winter specifications. That tends to be -- create some uplift on margin capture.

是的，瑞恩，我是葛瑞格。現在才到第四季度，對吧？您也提到了一些情況，隨著十月的開始，這些情況變得更加有利了。隨著冬季臨近，我總是會想到兩件事：一是隨著RVP轉向冬季規格，我們會將更多的丁烷混入汽油中。這通常意味著——提高利潤率。

But I think it's also worth doing. While there have been a number of things that have moved favorably. You still have some pretty weak secondary products, naphtha's turned a bit weaker. Propylene continues to be fairly weak. So there are a few things out there that have not really turned positively yet as we started out in the quarter.

但我認為這也很值得去做。雖然有很多事情朝著有利的方向發展。你們還有一些品質較差的副產品，石腦油的品質有所下降。丙烯仍然相當弱。所以，本季初，有些事情還沒有真正好轉。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，加拿大豐業銀行。

Just before my question, just curious that and have a comment. I was surprised that you guys did increase your G&A full year. I thought with the strong earnings that you guys are going to increase your bonus accrual. So I was surprised maybe that is a part of the cost savings from Lane.

在我提問之前，我只是好奇，想說幾句。我很驚訝你們全年的管理費用都增加了。我以為你們獲利這麼好，會提高獎金累積額度。所以我很驚訝，這或許是 Lane 公司節省成本的一部分原因。

Yes, [love that] when we'd eagerly jump on for.

是的，[喜歡]我們迫不及待地跳上去。

So I told Homer that this is not going to count as my question. But anyway.

所以我告訴荷馬，這不算我的問題。不過，不管怎樣。

That is a good comment, Paul.

保羅，你的評論很好。

Okay. My question is actually that in the third quarter, I think part of the issue related to the margin capture is on the octane, octane value comparing to the second quarter, I think, has come down just curious that if you guys will be able to share some insights what happened? And then whether you think that will continue that trend?

好的。我的問題其實是，我認為第三季利潤率下降的部分原因在於辛烷值，與第二季相比，辛烷值似乎有所下降。我只是好奇你們能否分享一些見解，解釋一下發生了什麼事？那麼，你認為這種趨勢會持續下去嗎？

Secondly, I want to go back into not so much about just AI, but also robotic technology and all that. So Lane and the team or Greg, do you guys think that we are seeing all this new technology now available to you is more the evolution or that is going to transform the way how you guys may conduct business, not just near -- in the refining side, but also in your back office in your trading commercial, as such that I mean we have seen your upstream counterparts some of them that announced some pretty sizable cost reduction effort because of the new technologies. Just wanted to see where we stand for you guys or for the industry?

其次，我想重新探討的不只是人工智慧，還有機器人技術等等。所以，萊恩和他的團隊，或是格雷格，你們認為我們現在看到的這些新技術，更多的是一種演變，還是將會徹底改變你們的業務開展方式？不只是煉油方面，還包括你們的後台交易業務。我的意思是，我們已經看到你們的一些上游同行因為新技術而宣布了相當大的成本削減計劃。只是想了解一下，在你們看來或是在整個產業中，我們處於什麼位置？

So maybe I'll take the naphtha question and let Greg take the second one -- or the octane question, sorry. When we look at octane, we tend to view that it trades at an inverse to naphtha. So what you really had in the last quarter was naphtha got a little bit stronger. And I think there are several reasons for that. You had less naphtha coming out of Russia. You had some of the naphtha from the US. Gulf Coast going back to Venezuela as diluent. And then you're seeing a little bit more nettable to Asia into the pet chem market.

所以也許我會回答石腦油的問題，讓格雷格回答第二個問題——或者辛烷值的問題，抱歉。當我們觀察辛烷值時，我們傾向於認為它與石腦油呈反向關係。所以上季實際情況是，石腦油的強度略有增強。我認為這有幾個原因。俄羅斯的石腦油產量減少了。你們有一些來自美國的石腦油。墨西哥灣沿岸地區以委內瑞拉為稀釋液。然後，你會看到亞洲在寵物化學品市場有更多可獲利的空間。

So when naphtha's weak, there's a big incentive to try to blend it into gasoline and that takes octane to do it, but naphtha get stronger, there's less of an incentive. So although the regrade octane, regrade was a little bit weaker, it probably helped set up stronger gasoline fundamentals.

所以當石腦油辛烷值較低時，人們有很大的動力去嘗試將其與汽油混合，而這需要提高辛烷值才能做到；但是當石腦油辛烷值提高時，這種動力就減弱了。所以，雖然重新分級後的辛烷值略低，但它可能有助於建立更強的汽油基本面。

All right, Paul. And so this is Greg. On the question around robotic automation and AI. I think maybe -- we don't talk about this a lot, but we've been using those techniques and further expanding the use of those techniques over time as -- again, as they make sense in terms of improving efficiency. And it improves our ability to inspect equipment certainly to execute some of the work that we do.

好的，保羅。這就是格雷格。關於機器人自動化和人工智慧的問題。我認為也許——我們很少談論這一點，但我們一直在使用這些技術，並且隨著時間的推移，我們進一步擴大了這些技術的使用範圍——同樣，因為它們在提高效率方面是有意義的。它提高了我們檢查設備的能力，當然也提高了我們執行某些工作的能力。

So that will continue to grow. I suspect and some of these new techniques will create more opportunity to use those tools going forward, which is kind of back to the answer before. I think there will be some improvement that comes from some of this new technology and these new techniques that are out there. And it will be -- if you start from a really good place like we do, it's going to be harder to find a lot of big opportunities there, but we're certainly focused on trying to find ones that make good sense from a value standpoint.

所以這個數字還會繼續增加。我懷疑，其中一些新技術將創造更多機會，讓我們在未來使用這些工具，這其實又回到了先前的答案。我認為，一些新技術和新方法會帶來一些改進。如果像我們這樣從一個非常好的起點出發，那麼找到很多大的機會就會比較困難，但我們當然會專注於尋找那些從價值角度來看有意義的機會。

And Paul, I'll add to it on some examples of those things is we like many other people in the industry, have been using robotics with respect to tank cleaning. I can see where the upstream guys would really -- that would really help them. The other thing that we've used is drones for inspection, like if you go into a -- today, we get into a big structure on an FCC and we can actually just rather than have to get in scaffold up to a particular location that might be problematic, we can put a drone in, float up, look at it, understand that situation without having to --. We may have to go back in and put scaffold, but now we understand the scope of work. So there are certainly things like that.

保羅，我再補充一些例子，我們和業內許多其他人一樣，一直在使用機器人進行儲罐清洗。我能理解上游企業為什麼會這麼想──這真的會對他們很有幫助。我們也利用無人機進行檢查，例如現在，我們去檢查一個大型建築的FCC認證項目，我們不用再搭建腳手架到可能存在問題的特定位置，而是可以放飛無人機，讓它升空，查看情況，了解現場情況，而無需人工操作。--.我們可能需要重新搭建鷹架，但現在我們了解了工作的範圍。所以確實存在這樣的事情。

And then with -- in our systems, we're always trying to think about ways to consolidate our control rooms and work on being more efficient with the operators that we have and some of which has to do with technology improvement.

然後，在我們的系統中，我們一直在思考如何整合控制室，並提高現有操作員的效率，其中一些與技術改進有關。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

喬‧萊奇，摩根士丹利。

So I want to start on the refining side. And with the strength in the diesel crack, can you talk about the ability to maintain the strong, I think it was 38% or 39% diesel yield level going forward? And then as part of that, the crude slate got a bit lighter quarter-over-quarter, but the diesel yield also stepped up, which I was hoping you could talk to as well.

所以我想先從提煉方面著手。鑑於柴油裂解價的強勁勢頭，您能否談談維持目前柴油產率（我認為是 38% 或 39%）的能力？作為其中的一部分，原油板岩的重量環比有所減輕，但柴油產量也有所提高，我希望您也能談談這方面的情況。

So I'll take -- I'll start with the second one, I think. So well, actually, I can probably cover both of them. Yes. Joe, we've had strong diesel yield. That 38%, 39% is not too far from where we've run in the past. It reflects a mode of operation where we're maximizing diesel production or distillate production over gasoline.

那我就選──我想我先選第二個吧。所以，實際上，我可能兩個都能講到。是的。喬，我們的柴油產量很高。38%、39% 這個數字與我們過去取得的成績相差不大。這反映了一種營運模式，即我們盡可能提高柴油或餾分油的產量，而不是汽油的產量。

Again, as we kind of tuned up the operation and ran very well in the quarter, I think you saw us reach some of the highest levels that I think we can achieve with the current hardware we have. So sustainable, we can probably stick in this range with continued strong operations like we had.

再次強調，隨著我們對營運進行了一些調整，並且在本季度運行得非常順利，我認為你們已經看到了我們用現有硬體所能達到的最高水平。所以，從永續發展的角度來看，如果我們繼續保持像以前那樣強勁的運營，我們或許可以維持在這個範圍內。

Remind me, Joe, what was the second part of that question?

喬，提醒我一下，那個問題的第二部分是什麼來著？

Yes. So I was just asking about the crude slate got a bit lighter quarter-over-quarter. You're able to step up the distillate yields. So just hoping you get a little bit thoughts on that.

是的。所以我只是想問，粗板岩的顏色是否比上一季略微變淺了。您可以提高餾出液的產率。所以，只是希望你能就此發表一些看法。

Yes. No, we did get a little bit lighter, but I think in some of the places where we lightened up, we were still able to -- the growth was more on the jet side than on the diesel side, and we were able to kind of drop that back into the naphtha into the jet, still make a distillate product and had good incentive to do so.

是的。不，我們的規模確實縮小了一些，但我認為在一些我們縮小規模的地方，我們仍然能夠——增長主要體現在航空煤油方面，而不是柴油方面，我們能夠把這些增長重新投入到石腦油中，再投入到航空煤油中，仍然可以生產餾分油產品，並且我們有足夠的動力這樣做。

So I'm not sure that the slate itself, if I were to try to back in, and I haven't tried to back into what was the total available distillate yield. But I don't know that it was a big enough shift in some of the places where we got lighter that would have had a material impact on our yield there.

所以我不確定石板本身，如果我嘗試反推，我還沒有嘗試反推可獲得的餾出物總產量是多少。但我不知道在我們減輕重量的某些地方，這種轉變是否大到足以對我們的產量產生實質影響。

Great. That's helpful. And then, Eric, I wanted to shift to RD. And then -- wait for clarity on the RVO and the SRU reallocation. Can you talk to how you're thinking about the path for D4 RINs here and then as part of that, is there a level that you think it needs to rise to incentivize the marginal producer?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，埃里克，我想轉到RD。然後——等待 RVO 和 SRU 重新分配的明確情況。您能否談談您對 D4 RINs 的發展路徑有何想法？作為其中的一部分，您認為它需要提升到什麼水平才能激勵邊際生產者？

Yeah. I think it's one of those things where there's more variables than knowns. I mean -- so -- but there's any number of combinations of a number, an SRE, a reallocation and a final number. But any combination of those numbers, the current number is $3.3 billion D4s. I think if you go back and look at the original premise of keeping the BD producer breakeven with a $1 BTC, they've done a lot of work this year with removing [aylla] out of the model for soybean oil. They gave a small producer benefit, which I think counts almost every single BD producer.

是的。我認為這屬於那種變數多於已知因素的事情。我的意思是——所以——但數字、SRE、重新分配和最終數字可以有無數種組合。但無論將這些數字如何組合，目前的數字都是 33 億美元 D4。我認為，如果你回顧一下最初的前提，即讓 BD 生產商在 1 美元的比特幣價格下實現盈虧平衡，他們今年已經做了很多工作，將 [aylla] 從大豆油模型中移除。他們為小型製作人提供了一些好處，我認為這幾乎涵蓋了所有藍光製作人。

And I think they're around $0.70 to $0.80 versus that $1 last year. So this last $0.20 is probably -- if you took that to a D4 RIN, you probably need RINs to go up something like $0.25 to $0.30 to get BD back to breakeven. So that's kind of how I see -- so any combination of the math that gets to that kind of number essentially satisfies the original design of trying to keep BD operational.

我認為它們的價格在 0.70 美元到 0.80 美元之間，而去年是 1 美元。所以，最後這 0.20 美元可能是——如果你把它帶到 D4 RIN，你可能需要 RIN 上漲 0.25 美元到 0.30 美元左右才能讓 BD 回到盈虧平衡點。所以，我的看法大概就是這樣——任何能得出那種數字的數學組合，本質上都滿足了保持 BD 運作的最初設計。

What that number translates out to RINs is a number higher than today. Although one of the challenges, I think, is they're trying to figure out this math is 25 D4 RIN production is down versus last year. So we're -- we have a current target of 3.3. If we underperform that number, we will consume the bank early into next year. So depending on how high you set that number, it's very difficult to pick exactly where you'll meet that BD requirement, but not overshoot and then create an impact to overall diesel prices.

這個數字轉換成 RIN 值後，會比現在的數字更高。我認為，其中一個挑戰是，他們正在努力計算，25 D4 RIN 的產量與去年相比有所下降。所以，我們目前的目標是 3.3。如果我們達不到這個數字，明年年初我們就會耗盡銀行資金。因此，根據你設定的數值有多高，很難準確地選擇滿足 BD 要求的位置，同時又不超出要求，從而對整體柴油價格產生影響。

So I think that's kind of the challenge of how this works. But if I try to anchor on something, I go back to the [dollar] BTC and where was the BD producer and where are they today? And so I think there's still a gap there. And clearly, with the trade issue with China and soybean oil and soybeans in general, how that plays into this is really difficult to predict. But I think the math is something like that.

所以我覺得這就是這項技術運作方式的挑戰所在。但如果我試圖找到一個錨點，我會回到[美元]比特幣，比特幣生產商以前在哪裡，現在又在哪裡？所以我認為這方面仍然存在差距。顯然，由於與中國的貿易問題以及大豆油和大豆本身，這對情況產生怎樣的影響，真的很難預測。但我認為其中的數學原理大致是如此。

I realize there's a lot of moving pieces, but I appreciate your thoughts.

我知道這其中涉及很多方面，但我很感謝你的想法。

Phillip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

Phillip Jungwirth，BMO資本市場。

Specific to the heavy sour mix in the Gulf Coast, can you just talk through the moving pieces here with Mexico production declining, the Venezuela uncertainty. I assume that wasn't any help in the quarter and also just Canada TMX capacity? And then also just how fuel imports might be helping replace some of these barrels in your Gulf Coast system. And maybe also just touch on [coker] margins with high diesel cracks, but also still tight differentials.

就墨西哥灣沿岸的重酸混合酒而言，您能否談談墨西哥產量下降、委內瑞拉局勢不明朗等因素的影響？我猜這在當季並沒有起到任何幫助，而且只是加拿大TMX的產能問題？此外，也要探討燃料進口如何幫助取代墨西哥灣沿岸系統中的一些桶裝燃料。或許還可以稍微談談柴油裂解價差高但價差仍很小的焦化利潤率。

Yeah. So overall, yes, we do see declining production from Mexico. Our volumes from Mexico aren't really down much yet, but they continue to forecast that we'll see declining production from Mexico. A lot of that is being made up with additional volumes from Canada as they continue to ramp up production and fill the pipeline capacity coming to the Gulf. So I would say those somewhat offset each other.

是的。所以總的來說，是的，我們確實看到墨西哥的產量正在下降。雖然我們從墨西哥的進口量目前還沒有大幅下降，但他們仍然預測墨西哥的產量將會下降。其中很大一部分缺口是由加拿大增加的輸油量彌補的，因為加拿大正在不斷提高產量，以填滿通往墨西哥灣的管道輸送能力。所以我覺得這兩件事在某種程度上已經抵銷了。

We do have Venezuelan barrels back in the mix, which is helping. And then the additional OPEC production, as I alluded to, getting the [balser] barrels and coker barrels, all that really, I think you'll see in the fourth quarter a heavier crude diet than what we had in the third quarter, filling out a lot of our conversion capacity.

我們現在又重新開始使用委內瑞拉的桶裝酒，這很有幫助。正如我之前提到的，歐佩克額外增產，以及[焦化爐]桶和焦化爐桶的投入使用，所有這些因素加起來，我認為在第四季度，我們將看到原油供應比第三季度更重，這將使我們的轉化產能得到充分利用。

On the high-sulfur fuel oil question, actually, high sulfur fuel has been pretty strong. And we haven't seen a real strong incentive to buy high sulfur fuel to put into cokers. There's been some opportunistic purchases, but for the most part, on paper, those economics haven't been strong.

關於高硫燃料油的問題，實際上，高硫燃料一直表現相當強勁。而且我們還沒有看到購買高硫燃料用於焦化裝置的真正強大的動力。雖然有一些投機性收購，但從帳面上看，這些收購的經濟效益並不理想。

Okay. Great. And then on the planned Benicia closure, you did have the charge in the quarter. Recognizing the state would like to keep this open and the official close date is it in April, but when do you kind of reach the point of no return here just given preparations needed and scheduled turnaround?

好的。偉大的。至於計劃關閉貝尼西亞工廠，你們確實在季度中收取了費用。雖然州政府希望保持開放，官方的關閉日期也是四月份，但考慮到所需的準備工作和預定的周轉時間，什麼時候才算到了無法挽回的地步呢？

This is Rich Walsh. I'll take an effort to answer at least the interaction with the government part of it. I mean we have been in discussions with California, but nothing has materialized out of that. And so as a result, nothing has changed. Our plans are still moving forward as we've shared and as we've informed the state. So I don't see anything changing on that.

這是里奇·沃爾什。我會盡力回答至少關於與政府互動的部分。我的意思是，我們一直在和加州方面進行討論，但沒有任何實質進展。因此，結果什麼都沒改變。我們的計劃仍在按計劃推進，正如我們之前與州政府分享和通報的那樣。所以我覺得這方面不會有任何改變。

Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

馬修·布萊爾，都鐸，皮克林，霍爾特。

Could you talk about DGD performance so far in the fourth quarter? I think your indicator is just quite a bit maybe $0.36 a gallon quarter-over-quarter. Are you realizing that improvement so far? Or are there other factors we need to take into account, like hedging or feedstock lag? Or I think some of the staff credits changed on October 1. But yes, just any sort of broader commentary on DGDs so far in Q4 would be great.

能否談談DGD在第四季的表現？我認為你的指標相當高，可能每加侖每季上漲 0.36 美元。目前感受到這種進步了嗎？或者有其他因素需要考慮嗎，例如避險或原料供應滯後？或者我認為部分員工名單在 10 月 1 日發生了變化。是的，任何關於第四季度迄今為止的DGD的更廣泛的評論都將非常有用。

Yeah. I think most of that, I would say, is tied to lower feedstock prices. I think you're seeing rationalization and feedstock prices starting to come off. And so a lot of that is improving the profitability of DGD. We still have strong staff benefits both in the US and in the European and UK markets. So that's an advantage that DGD has over a lot of other RD producers and SAP has a premium in the base. And so fourth quarter looks good from an overall production rate standpoint as well as just PTC capture and on lower fat prices is really the fourth quarter.

是的。我認為，這主要與原料價格下降有關。我認為你會看到合理化趨勢，原料價格也開始下降。因此，這在很大程度上提高了DGD的獲利能力。我們在美國、歐洲和英國市場仍然提供優厚的員工福利。所以這是 DGD 相對於許多其他研發生產商的優勢，而 SAP 的基礎架構則具有溢價。因此，從整體生產率以及PTC捕獲量來看，第四季度看起來不錯，而且脂肪價格較低，第四季確實如此。

I think the question is still going to be as we enter into '26, will you see adequate premiums on staff to cover the loss of the PTC benefit. And are you going to see, as we were -- we've discussed a couple of times, what is going to be the RVO impact because that will have to be the vehicle to make up any gap in profitability for biodiesel and renewable diesel to comply with wherever the RVO gets set.

我認為問題仍然是，進入 2026 年後，員工是否有足夠的保費來彌補 PTC 福利的損失。您是否會看到，正如我們之前討論過的——我們已經討論過幾次了——RVO 將會產生什麼影響，因為無論 RVO 的設定如何，生物柴油和可再生柴油都必須通過 RVO 來彌補盈利能力方面的任何差距。

And so we still have a lot of policy that appears to be in conflict of increased RVO but decreased generation because of foreign feedstocks. Those are all going to be things where you're trying to raise the number, but make it more difficult to generate that usually is going to mean higher RIN prices. And so I think that is the question that everyone's got to get settled on.

因此，我們仍有許多政策似乎有矛盾，一方面增加再生能源利用，另一方面因為進口原料而減少發電量。這些都是你想提高數量的事情，但增加產生難度通常意味著更高的 RIN 價格。所以我認為這是每個人都必須解決的問題。

And I think there's good awareness of how these knobs will affect the overall market. But I think those are the two things that will determine whether or not this fourth quarter improved profitability can continue into '26.

我認為人們很清楚這些調整將如何影響整個市場。但我認為，這兩件事將決定第四季獲利能力的提升能否延續到 2026 年。

Indeed, a lot of moving parts there. And then if I could follow up on Theresa's question on the new product pipes that are headed West. Could you talk about what this means for the prospects for your Wilmington refinery, I think Los Angeles currently ships about 125 a day of product East out of the market to Phoenix. If one of the proposal goes through, then Los Angeles could actually receive about 200 a day. So that's a pretty big shift on California supply/demand and do you think Wilmington would be able to compete with an extra 200 a day coming into that Los Angeles market?

確實，這裡面涉及很多環節。然後，我能否就特蕾莎提出的關於即將運往西部的新產品管道的問題進行後續提問。您能否談談這對您位於威爾明頓的煉油廠的前景意味著什麼？我認為洛杉磯目前每天向東部市場（鳳凰城）運送約 125 公升產品。如果其中一項提案獲得通過，那麼洛杉磯每天實際上可以收到約 200 個。所以加州的供需關係發生了相當大的變化，你認為威爾明頓能夠應對每天湧入洛杉磯市場的額外 200 個移民嗎？

Yes, this is Gary. I think when we look at the numbers, if you look at the California market today, it looks like it's being set by import parity. And if you look at the tariffs on those pipes, import parity through the pipeline doesn't look to be significantly different than import parity on the waterborne barrels. So I don't know that you'll see much of a change in the California market as a result of the pipelines.

是的，這是加里。我認為，從數據來看，如果你看看今天的加州市場，你會發現它似乎是由進口價格平價決定的。如果你看一下這些管道的關稅，你會發現透過管道進口的平價與透過水路運輸的桶裝貨物進口的平價並沒有顯著差異。所以我不認為加州市場會因為這些管道而有太大變化。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman，TD Cowen。

Hopefully, two quick ones. First, just on the Russian refining disruptions. There's a lot of headlines on the Ukraine drone strikes, but it does seem like in many cases, the refineries come back online quickly. So I was wondering if you could provide some numbers around the amount of disruption that you're seeing on Russian product exports and kind of before today, trying to parse out how much of the product strength was driven by actual disruptions versus geopolitical risk premium in the prices?

希望很快就能完成兩次。首先，我們先來談談俄羅斯煉油廠的中斷情況。關於烏克蘭無人機襲擊的新聞很多，但似乎在許多情況下，煉油廠都能很快恢復生產。所以我想知道您能否提供一些關於俄羅斯產品出口中斷程度的數據，以及在今天之前的情況，以便區分產品價格上漲有多少是由實際中斷造成的，又有多少是由地緣政治風險溢價造成的？

And then my second one is on the Benicia shutdown. Can you talk about your plans to resupply the market? Or are you going to have to kind of import products from Asia in order to meet your contractual obligations? Or do you not have really many outstanding in that market once the plant shuts down.

我的第二個問題是關於貝尼西亞的停工。您能談談您恢復市場供應的計劃嗎？或者，為了履行合約義務，你們是否需要從亞洲進口產品？或者說，工廠關閉後，你們在這個市場上真的沒有太多未完成的項目嗎？

Yes, I'll take the first part of that. I think we do think the drone strikes have been pretty effective. It looks like a lot of what's happening in Russia is that they're largely attacking some of the higher complexity refining capacity. And so as that happens, then Russia will go ahead and ramp up some of the lower complexity refining capacity. So you can kind of see that with the fuel exports and some of those things.

是的，我接受第一部分。我認為我們都認為無人機襲擊相當有效。看起來俄羅斯正在發生的很多事情，主要是攻擊一些複雜度較高的煉油產能。因此，隨著這種情況的發生，俄羅斯將繼續提高一些複雜度較低的煉油產能。所以從燃料出口等方面可以看出這一點。

The second part of your question, I think the spike we're seeing today is not so much due to any kind of disruption from Russia yet. It is just hyping the market on what could happen in the future. But we definitely see exports from -- product exports from Russia falling.

關於你問題的第二部分，我認為我們今天看到的激增並非完全是由俄羅斯的任何干擾造成的。這只是在炒作未來可能發生的事情。但我們確實看到俄羅斯的產品出口正在下降。

Jason, this is Lane on the second part. Our intent is to continue to supply our contractual obligations for our wholesale business after we shut down the refinery.

傑森，我是萊恩，這是第二部。我們的目標是在煉油廠關閉後，繼續履行批發業務的合約義務。

Okay. And those would be essentially imports from Asia presumably.

好的。而且這些商品基本上都是從亞洲進口的。

It could be from anywhere in the world. This is kind of what Gary alluded to earlier, waterborne alleged, you have optionality to try to work hours into that short versus maybe having a huge commitment on the pipeline. It's -- so that's sort of our intent. We're not going to go out and turn up barrels from some particular market, we'll figure out how to supply it.

它可能來自世界任何地方。這有點像 Gary 之前提到的 waterborne 的說法，你可以選擇在短時間內完成幾個小時的工作，而不是對管道做出巨大的承諾。這就是——這就是我們的意圖。我們不會刻意去某個特定市場弄到桶裝酒，我們會想辦法供應。

Nitin Kumar, Mizuho Securities.

Nitin Kumar，瑞穗證券。

I really just have one, although a part A and B. You've talked a little bit about the crude spreads widening from here on out. Just maybe some thoughts on what do you see the mid-cycle also at least 12-month view on some of these spreads because you should have at least based on what's going on between Canada Iraqi barrels, you were mentioning there seems to be a lot of supply of heavier crudes coming at the same time to the market.

我其實只有一個問題，雖然它分成A、B兩個部分。你剛才也稍微提到原油價差會繼續擴大。您能否就中期週期以及至少未來 12 個月的價差發表一些看法？因為根據您提到的加拿大和伊拉克原油之間的價格走勢，您至少應該有所了解，而且似乎有很多重質原油同時進入市場。

And then maybe part B is, given your complexity, especially in the Gulf Coast, you have like a buffet of crudes that you could choose from. Is there a specific crude that you think falls to the bottom if it's not discounted appropriately?

然後，B 部分可能是，考慮到你們的複雜性，尤其是在墨西哥灣沿岸，你們就像有很多原油可供選擇。您認為如果原油價格沒有適當的折扣，哪一種原油的價格會跌到谷底？

Yes. So I'll just take a stab at that. I guess our view is, without getting into a lot of specifics on what we call mid-cycle, I guess we would say where the quality differentials are today, it would be a little inside of what we view as mid-cycle, and we do see those continuing to widen going forward. In terms of crude we see falling out, I don't really know that I have a view on that, Greg. I don't know if you have one, but.

是的。那我就試著回答一下。我想我們的觀點是，雖然不打算詳細討論我們所說的周期中期，但我想說，目前的品質差異略微處於我們所認為的周期中期，而且我們確實看到這些差異在未來會繼續擴大。至於原油價格下跌的問題，我真的不知道該怎麼看待，格雷格。我不知道你有沒有，但是…

What I'd probably add, if you look back, and I think the market works its way today as well, the Latin American grades are the ones that tend to be the swing. And so they're probably the 1 that's kind of moved into fill holes when there was a short in the Gulf Coast, they're probably the first ones that would back out as some of that supply comes in.

我可能會補充一點，如果你回顧過去，而且我認為今天的市場也是如此，拉丁美洲的等級往往是價格波動的主要因素。因此，當墨西哥灣沿岸出現短缺時，他們可能是第一個填補空缺的公司；而當部分供應恢復時，他們也可能是第一個退出的公司。

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments.

謝謝。此時，我想把發言權交給布拉爾先生，請他作總結發言。

Great. Thank you, Donna. We appreciate everyone joining us today. And as always, please feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions. Have a great day, everyone. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你，唐娜。感謝今天所有到場的朋友。如有任何疑問，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。祝大家有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路或退出網路直播，享受一天剩下的時光。