瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Valero Energy Corp. first quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, VP of Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corp. 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our Chairman, CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; Rich Walsh, our Executive Vice President and General Counsel; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早安，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的是我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Lane Riggs；我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Jason Fraser；我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Gary Simmons；我們的執行副總裁兼總法律顧問 Rich Walsh；以及瓦萊羅高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到收益報告並希望獲得副本，您可以在我們的網站 investorvalero.com 上找到。收益報告還附有表格，提供有關我們業務部門的額外財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的對帳和揭露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請在通話結束後隨時聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC. Now I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在我想提請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總而言之，新聞稿和電話會議中陳述的公司或管理層對未來的期望或預測均為前瞻性陳述，旨在受聯邦證券法的安全港條款的保護。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所描述的因素。現在我會把電話交給 Lane 來致開場白。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to report that we delivered positive results for the first quarter despite heavy maintenance activity across our refining system and a tough margin environment in the renewable diesel segment. This is a credit to the strength and discipline of our operations, optimization, and commercial teams.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。我很高興地報告，儘管我們的煉油系統維護工作繁重，且再生柴油領域的利潤環境嚴峻，但我們在第一季仍取得了積極的業績。這歸功於我們的營運、優化和商業團隊的實力和紀律。

Refining margins improved through the quarter with US light product demand slightly higher than last year and product inventory is below the same period last year. On the financial side, we continue to honor our commitment to shareholder returns with a strong payout ratio of 73% in the first quarter. And in January, our Board approved a 6% increase to the quarterly cash dividend, further demonstrating our strong financial position.

由於美國輕量產品需求略高於去年且產品庫存低於去年同期，本季煉油利潤率有所提升。在財務方面，我們繼續履行對股東回報的承諾，第一季的派息率高達 73%。今年 1 月，董事會批准將季度現金股息提高 6%，進一步證明了我們強勁的財務狀況。

We continue to progress the SEC unit optimization project at St. Charles that will enable the refinery to increase the yield of high-value products, including high octane alkylates. The project is estimated to cost $230 million is expected to start up in 2026. And we are pursuing other short-cycle, high-return optimization projects around our existing refining assets.

我們繼續推進聖查爾斯 SEC 裝置優化項目，這將使煉油廠提高高辛烷值烷基化物等高價值產品的產量。該計畫預計耗資2.3億美元，預計2026年啟動。我們也圍繞現有煉油資產開展其他短週期、高回報的優化項目。

Looking ahead, we expect tight product supply and demand balances and low product inventories to support refining fundamentals ahead of the driving season. Longer term, product demand is expected to exceed supply as there are limited announced capacity additions beyond 2025.

展望未來，我們預計在駕駛季節到來之前，產品供需平衡緊張以及產品庫存較低將支撐煉油基本面。從長遠來看，由於 2025 年後宣布的產能增加有限，預計產品需求將超過供應。

In closing, we remain focused on the things that we can control, pursuing excellence in operations, deploying capital with an uncompromising focus on return, and honoring our commitment to stockholder returns. Our commitment remains underpinned by a strong balance sheet that provides us plenty of operational and financial flexibility. So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

最後，我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情，追求卓越的運營，在部署資本的同時毫不妥協地關注回報，並履行對股東回報的承諾。我們的承諾仍然以強勁的資產負債表為基礎，這為我們提供充足的營運和財務靈活性。因此，荷馬，我將把電話轉回給你。

Thanks, Lane. For the first quarter of 2025, we incurred a net loss attributable to Valero stockholders of $595 million or $1.90 per share compared to net income of $1.2 billion or $3.75 per share for the first quarter of 2024. Excluding the $1.1 billion pretax or $877 million after-tax asset impairment loss related to the West Coast assets, adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $282 million or $0.89 per share for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $1.3 billion or $3.84 per share for the first quarter of 2024.

謝謝，萊恩。2025 年第一季度，我們歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨虧損為 5.95 億美元或每股 1.90 美元，而 2024 年第一季的淨收入為 12 億美元或每股 3.75 美元。不計入與西海岸資產相關的 11 億美元稅前或 8.77 億美元稅後資產減損損失，2025 年第一季歸屬於 Valero 股東的調整後淨收入為 2.82 億美元或每股 0.89 美元，而 2024 年第一季為 13 億美元或每股 3.84 美元。

The Refining segment reported an operating loss of $530 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to operating income of $1.7 billion for the first quarter of 2024. Adjusted operating income was $605 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $1.8 billion for the first quarter of 2024.

煉油部門報告 2025 年第一季營業虧損 5.3 億美元，而 2024 年第一季營業收入為 17 億美元。2025 年第一季調整後營業收入為 6.05 億美元，而 2024 年第一季調整後營業收入為 18 億美元。

The Refining throughput volumes in the first quarter of 2025 averaged 2.8 million barrels per day or 89% throughput capacity utilization. Refining cash operating expenses were $5.07 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025. The renewable diesel segment reported an operating loss of $141 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to operating income of $190 million for the first quarter of 2024.

2025 年第一季煉油吞吐量平均為每天 280 萬桶，吞吐量利用率為 89%。2025 年第一季煉油現金營運費用為每桶 5.07 美元。再生柴油部門報告 2025 年第一季的營業虧損為 1.41 億美元，而 2024 年第一季的營業收入為 1.9 億美元。

Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 2.4 million gallons per day in the first quarter of 2025. The ethanol segment reported $20 million of operating income for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $10 million for the first quarter of 2024.

2025 年第一季再生柴油銷售量平均為每天 240 萬加侖。乙醇部門報告 2025 年第一季的營業收入為 2,000 萬美元，而 2024 年第一季的營業收入為 1,000 萬美元。

Adjusted operating income was $39 million for the first quarter of 2024. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.5 million gallons per day in the first quarter of 2025. For the first quarter of 2025, G&A expenses were $261 million, net interest expense was $137 million, depreciation and amortization expense was $691 million, and income tax benefit was $265 million.

2024 年第一季調整後營業收入為 3,900 萬美元。2025 年第一季度，乙醇產量平均為每天 450 萬加侖。2025 年第一季，一般及行政費用為 2.61 億美元，淨利息支出為 1.37 億美元，折舊及攤提費用為 6.91 億美元，所得稅收益為 2.65 億美元。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $952 million in the first quarter of 2025. Included in this amount was $157 million favorable change in working capital and $67 million of adjusted net cash used in operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD, excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $862 million in the first quarter of 2025.

2025年第一季經營活動提供的淨現金為9.52億美元。該金額中包括1.57億美元的營運資本有利變化和與DGD其他合資成員股份相關的經營活動所使用的6700萬美元調整後淨現金，不包括這些項目，2025年第一季經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為8.62億美元。

Regarding investing activities, we made $660 million of capital investments in the first quarter of 2025, of which $582 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts, and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business.

關於投資活動，我們在 2025 年第一季進行了 6.6 億美元的資本投資，其中 5.82 億美元用於維持業務，包括扭虧為盈、催化劑和監管合規的成本，餘額用於成長業務。

Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD and other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $611 million in the first quarter of 2025.

不計歸屬於 DGD 的其他合資成員份額和其他可變利益實體的資本投資，2025 年第一季歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資為 6.11 億美元。

Moving to financing activities, we returned $633 million to our stockholders in the first quarter of 2025, of which $356 million was paid as dividends and $277 million was for the purchase of approximately 2.1 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 73% for the quarter.

在融資活動方面，我們在 2025 年第一季向股東返還了 6.33 億美元，其中 3.56 億美元以股息形式支付，2.77 億美元用於購買約 210 萬股普通股，本季的派息率為 73%。

On January 16, we announced a 6% increase to the quarterly cash dividend on common stock from $1.07 to $1.13 per share, delivering on our commitment of a growing dividend. With respect to our balance sheet, we issued $650 million aggregate principal amount of 5.15% senior notes due 2030 in February and repaid the outstanding principal balances of $189 million of 3.65% senior notes that matured in March and $251 million of 2.85% senior notes that matured in April.

1 月 16 日，我們宣布將普通股季度現金股利從每股 1.07 美元增加 6% 至 1.13 美元，兌現了我們增加股息的承諾。就我們的資產負債表而言，我們於 2 月份發行了 2030 年到期、本金總額為 6.5 億美元的 5.15% 優先票據，並償還了 3 月份到期、本金餘額為 1.89 億美元的 3.65% 優先票據和 4 月份到期、本金餘額為 1.89 億美元的 3.65% 優先票據和 4 月份到期、5%

We ended the quarter with $8.5 billion of total debt, $2.3 billion of total finance lease obligations, and $4.6 billion of cash and cash equivalents. The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 19% as of March 31, 2025. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

本季末，我們的總債務為 85 億美元，融資租賃債務總額為 23 億美元，現金和現金等價物為 46 億美元。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的債務資本化率為 19%。本季末，我們擁有充足的資本，可用流動資金為 53 億美元（不含現金）。

Turning to guidance, we still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2025 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalyst, regulatory compliance, and joint venture investments, about $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth.

談到指引，我們仍然預計 2025 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑、法規合規和合資投資的支出，其中約 16 億美元用於維持業務，其餘用於成長。

For modeling our second quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.75 million to 1.8 million barrels per day, Mid-Continent at 385,000 to 405,000 barrels per day, West Coast at 240,000 to 260,000 barrels per day, and North Atlantic at 320,000 to 340,000 barrels per day.

為了模擬我們第二季的營運情況，我們預計煉油吞吐量將在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸為每天 175 萬至 180 萬桶，中部大陸為每天 385,000 至 405,000 桶，西海岸為每天 240,000 至 260,000 桶，北大西洋為每天 240,000 至 260,000 桶，北大西洋為每天 30,000 至 200,000 桶，北大西洋為每天 30,000 至 200,000 桶，北大西洋為每天 30,000 至 200,030 桶，北大西洋為 300,000 至 200,000 桶，北大西洋為 300,030 桶，北大西洋為

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the second quarter to be approximately $5.15 per barrel. With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we now expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.1 billion gallons in 2025, reflecting lower production volumes due to economics. Operating expenses in 2025 should be $0.53 per gallon, which includes $0.24 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們預計第二季煉油現金營運費用約為每桶 5.15 美元。對於再生柴油領域，我們目前預計 2025 年的銷售量約為 11 億加侖，反映出由於經濟原因產量較低。2025 年的營運費用應為每加侖 0.53 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.24 美元的折舊和攤提等非現金成本。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.6 million gallons per day in the second quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.41 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們的乙醇部門預計第二季每天的產量為 460 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.41 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的折舊和攤提等非現金成本。

For the second quarter, net interest expense should be about $135 million. Total depreciation and amortization expense in the second quarter should be approximately $780 million, which includes $100 million of incremental depreciation expense related to our plan to cease refining operations at our Benicia refinery by the end of April 2026.

第二季淨利息支出約 1.35 億美元。第二季的總折舊和攤銷費用約為 7.8 億美元，其中包括與我們計劃在 2026 年 4 月底前停止貝尼西亞煉油廠的煉油業務相關的 1 億美元增量折舊費用。

We expect this incremental amount related to the Benicia refinery to be included in D&A for the next four quarters resulting in a quarterly earnings impact of approximately $0.25 per share based on current shares outstanding. For 2025, we still expect G&A expenses to be approximately $985 million.

我們預計，與貝尼西亞煉油廠相關的增量金額將計入未來四個季度的折舊及攤銷前利潤 (D&A) 中，根據當前流通股數計算，季度收益影響約為每股 0.25 美元。到 2025 年，我們仍預計 G&A 費用約為 9.85 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. Before we open the call to questions, please limit each turn in the Q&A to two questions. If you have more than two questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

我們的開場白到此結束。在我們開始提問之前，請將每次問答環節限制為兩個問題。如果您有兩個以上的問題，請在時間允許的情況下重新加入佇列，以確保其他呼叫者有時間提出問題。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Good morning, guys. Very resilient earnings in a tough macro. I have two questions for Gary. I'll ask them upfront in the interest of time. So Gary, there's a lot of chatter around here on tariffs and recessions and whatever. But what are you seeing in terms of the market dynamics, supply demand out there for refined products?

大家早安。在嚴峻的宏觀環境下，獲利極具韌性。我有兩個問題想問加里。為了節省時間，我會提前詢問他們。加里，這裡有很多關於關稅、經濟衰退等問題的討論。但是，就市場動態和成品油的供應需求而言，您看到什麼情況？

And the second 1 is, can you talk a little bit about the crude differentials and the quality discounts given everything which is going around OPEC probably raising volumes, land are shutting down. and probably tariffs. So if you could address those two questions.

第二個問題是，您能否談談原油差異和品質折扣，考慮到目前的情況，OPEC 可能會增加產量，土地正在關閉。可能還有關稅。所以如果你能回答這兩個問題。

Yeah, good morning, Manav. This is Gary. Happy to address that. And so to kind of talk about what we're seeing on the commercial side of the business. Sales through our wholesale system were down in the first quarter, a few percent from typical historic levels. Our product exports were up year over year, but down versus fourth quarter levels. None of this is really a reflection of demand, just more due to the heavy refinery maintenance we had during the quarter.

是的，早上好，Manav。這是加里。很高興解決這個問題。接下來我們來談談我們在商業方面看到的情況。第一季度，我們批發系統的銷售額下降了，比歷史水準下降了幾個百分點。我們的產品出口較去年同期成長，但與第四季的水準相比有所下降。這些實際上都不是需求的反映，只是由於我們在本季度進行了大量的煉油廠維護。

If you look at the seven-day average trends to our wholesale system, we're back to just below that 1 million-barrel a day level. We're showing a 1% year-over-year increase in gasoline sales and a 6% year-over-year increase in diesel volumes.

如果你看一下我們批發系統的七天平均趨勢，我們又回到了每天 100 萬桶以下的水平。我們的汽油銷量較去年同期成長 1%，柴油銷量較去年同期成長 6%。

Diesel sales have really been supported by higher agricultural demand as we started planting season in the Mid-Continent. If you look at the DoE demand data for total light products, it indicates a year-over-year increase in total light product demand in the neighborhood of 300,000 barrels a day, which we believe is pretty accurate.

隨著中部大陸開始進入種植季節，農業需求的增加確實支撐了柴油的銷售。如果你查看美國能源部對輕質產品總需求的數據，它顯示輕質產品總需求量年增約 30 萬桶/天，我們認為這是相當準確的。

It looks to us like the DoE is underreporting gasoline demand a little. If you look at the ethanol blending data, it would indicate gasoline demand flat to slightly up from last year. Jet demand year-to-date slightly up. And then a really nice bump in diesel demand driven largely by the cold temperatures we experienced early in the year.

在我們看來，美國能源部稍微低估了汽油需求。如果你查看乙醇混合數據，你會發現汽油需求與去年持平或略有上升。今年迄今噴射機的需求略有上升。然後，柴油需求出現了大幅增長，這主要是由於今年年初我們經歷的寒冷氣溫。

Globally, I think we've seen stronger light product demand as well and more than was expected. The consultants data varies greatly here. But if you take an average of the data it would show a year-over-year increase in total light product demand globally of around 1 million barrels a day, which we think is pretty close.

從全球來看，我認為我們也看到了對輕工業產品更強勁的需求，而且超出了預期。顧問的數據在這裡差異很大。但如果取平均數據，就會發現全球輕量產品總需求量年增約 100 萬桶/天，我們認為這個數字相當接近。

Our data shows we had about 640,000 barrels a day of new refining capacity come online during the quarter. But then we had two refineries shut down with a combined capacity of 410,000 barrels a day. So total light product demand globally up 1 million barrels a day, 230,000 barrels a day of net capacity additions and then a little lower refinery utilization due to turnaround.

我們的數據顯示，本季我們每天有大約 64 萬桶新的煉油能力上線。但隨後我們關閉了兩家煉油廠，總產能為每天 41 萬桶。因此，全球輕量產品總需求將增加 100 萬桶/天，淨產能將增加 23 萬桶/天，而煉油廠利用率則會因週轉而略有下降。

So you combine all that and you would expect to see some inventory draws, which is what we've seen. Total light product inventory has grown back to the point, we're once again below the five-year average range, currently 36 million barrels below the 5-year average, 8 million barrels below where we were last year at this time. Gasoline inventory is drawn down to the bottom part of the five-year average range.

因此，將所有這些結合起來，您將看到一些庫存下降，這正是我們所看到的。輕質產品總庫存已回升至低於五年平均水平的水平，目前比五年平均低 3,600 萬桶，比去年同期低 800 萬桶。汽油庫存降至五年平均的底部。

Jet inventories are now below the five-year average levels. Diesel inventories well below five-year average range below last year and now approaching the historically low levels we saw in 2022 and 2023.

目前噴射機庫存低於五年平均值。柴油庫存遠低於去年五年平均水平，目前正接近 2022 年和 2023 年的歷史最低水平。

As we head into driving season, gasoline fundamentals look constructive. Gasoline inventory toward the bottom of the five-year average range, demand at or slightly above last year. West Coast gasoline is a 12-year low for this time of year.

隨著駕駛季節的到來，汽油基本面看起來良好。汽油庫存接近五年平均的底部，需求與去年持平或略高。今年這個時候，西岸汽油價格處於 12 年來的最低價。

Unemployment remains low, which historically translates into good gasoline demand. And then the strength in European gasoline is really keeping their barrels in Europe versus the normal transatlantic export flow into New York Harbor. Additionally, that strength in European gasoline is opening up more exports for US Gulf Coast refineries into Latin America.

失業率仍然很低，從歷史上看，這意味著汽油需求良好。歐洲汽油的強勁表現實際上是將其庫存留在了歐洲，而不是正常的跨大西洋出口流入紐約港。此外，歐洲汽油的強勁需求也為美國墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油廠開啟了更多向拉丁美洲出口汽油的管道。

Diesel looks very strong. We had good demand early in the year due to cold weather -- we've seen imports as well as domestic production of renewable and biodiesel falloff, which has created incremental demand for refinery produced diesel.

柴油看起來非常強勁。由於天氣寒冷，今年年初我們的需求很好——我們看到可再生和生物柴油的進口量和國內產量下降，這增加了對煉油廠生產的柴油的需求。

And despite the fact that we're at or near record lows on total diesel inventory in the US that we've seen in 2022 and 2023, the ARB to ship on Explorer from the US Gulf Coast to the Mid-Continent is open due to the strong agricultural demand. The ARB to ship on Colonial to New York Harbor is open hard to ship from the US Gulf Coast, Europe is open and the to Latin America is open.

儘管美國柴油總庫存已達到或接近 2022 年和 2023 年的歷史最低水平，但由於農業需求強勁，從美國墨西哥灣沿岸到中部大陸的 Explorer 號 ARB 運輸通道仍然開放。從殖民地到紐約港的 ARB 船隻已開放，從美國墨西哥灣沿岸、歐洲到拉丁美洲的船隻也已開放。

So when you look at record low inventories and still have open ARBs to ship product domestically and globally from the US Gulf Coast, I think that speaks well for diesel, not just domestically, but also globally. VGO remains fairly expensive, indicating tightness in that market, which likely says FCCs and hydrocrackers have to compete for incremental VGO barrels.

因此，當您看到庫存處於歷史低位，並且仍有開放的 ARB 可以從美國墨西哥灣沿岸向國內和全球運輸產品時，我認為這對柴油來說是一個好消息，不僅在國內，而且在全球範圍內都是如此。VGO 價格仍然相當昂貴，表明市場供應緊張，這可能意味著 FCC 和加氫裂解裝置必須爭奪增量 VGO 產量。

So again, the fundamentals look very strong and have exceeded our expectations so far for the year. I think when you go through all this data, it's actually surprising we don't see stronger refinery margins. Based on the strong fundamentals, I'd say refinery margins are undervalued.

所以，基本面看起來非常強勁，並且已經超出了我們對今年迄今為止的預期。我認為，當你查看所有這些數據時，你實際上會驚訝地發現煉油廠的利潤率並沒有提高。基於強勁的基本面，我認為煉油廠的利潤率被低估了。

I think right now, it's the uncertainty around the economy. People have made assumptions on what happens with the economy and its impact on demand for our products. And those assumptions are really driving the market right now. Thus far, the economy looks like it's been fairly resistant, but we'll have to see all of you guys probably have better insight to that than what I do.

我認為目前是經濟的不確定性。人們對經濟情勢及其對我們產品需求的影響做出了假設。這些假設確實正在推動目前的市場。到目前為止，經濟看起來似乎具有相當的抵抗力，但我們必須看到大家對此的了解可能比我更深入。

Turning to the crude differentials. It's been hard to really have clarity on what's going to happen with the crude differentials in the quarter. A lot of the discussions on tariffs and sanctions have certainly made that hard to see where the direction that's going. I think when you look at bullish factors, certainly, the Lyondell refinery shutting down in the US Gulf Coast to put 200,000 to 250,000 barrels a day of additional heavy sour barrels on the market.

轉向粗略的差異。很難真正弄清楚本季原油差異將會發生什麼。大量有關關稅和製裁的討論確實讓人難以看清事情的發展方向。我認為，當你看到利多因素時，肯定會有這樣的情況：美國墨西哥灣沿岸的利安德爾煉油廠關閉，每天向市場額外投放 20 萬至 25 萬桶重質酸性原油。

We saw a record Canadian production in the first quarter, and it looks like Canadian production continues to ramp up. And then we've had the announcement of 500,000 barrels a day of additional OPEC plus production news yesterday was that may be even higher than the 500,000 barrels a day.

我們看到第一季加拿大的產量創下了歷史新高，而且看起來加拿大的產量還在持續上升。然後，我們又聽到了歐佩克宣布每天增產 50 萬桶的消息，而昨天的產量消息甚至可能高於每天 50 萬桶。

Offsetting that somewhat, we continue to see Mexican production decline a little and then the potential for sanctions impacting Iranian and Venezuelan production. But you combine all that, and I think the likelihood is that you see more medium and heavy sour barrels on the market, which speaks well to the differentials moving forward.

與此形成一定抵消的是，我們繼續看到墨西哥產量略有下降，而製裁可能會影響伊朗和委內瑞拉的產量。但將所有這些結合起來，我認為你很可能會在市場上看到更多的中型和重型酸性桶，這很好地說明了未來的差異化。

I don't think there's much room for them to come in any because medium and heavy sours are already trading at economic parity to light sweet. In fact, we're seeing economic singles approach to the point where you would back off of heavy feedstocks and even spare coking capacity.

我認為它們沒有太大的進入空間，因為中酸和重酸啤酒的經濟交易價格已經與輕甜啤酒持平。事實上，我們看到經濟情勢逐漸趨於穩定，人們將減少重質原料的使用，甚至減少焦化產能。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. To come back on the guidance just to -- for the second quarter, a little light relative to what I was anticipating a little -- I guess you could even say like relative to a year ago. Is this a function of maintenance because it seems to run a little counter to the explanation you were just offering there, Gary?

是的，謝謝。早安.回到指引上——對於第二季度，相對於我之前預期的來說，稍微輕鬆一點——我想你甚至可以說與一年前相比。這是維護的功能嗎，因為它似乎與您剛才提供的解釋有點相悖，加里？

Roger, this is Greg. Yes, it is maintenance, and you can see it in a couple of the particular regions, North Atlantic and Mid-Con, you can see those quite a bit lower, and that's all maintenance driven. In the Gulf Coast and the West Coast, where most of the maintenance is complete. We're getting those kind of back to what you would typically see for throughput.

羅傑，這是格雷格。是的，這是維護，你可以在幾個特定的地區看到它，北大西洋和中部地區，你可以看到它們相當低，而這些都是由維護驅動的。在墨西哥灣沿岸和西海岸，大部分維護工作已經完成。我們正在將這些還原到您通常看到的吞吐量水準。

Okay. And then Homer, I think this is just to clarify with you. When we talked about maintenance before you've pointed out there can be a difference between crude unit maintenance and downstream maintenance. So presuming the guidance is crude unit maintenance, are we looking at the ability to run some of the downstream units? Or should we take this at face value on volumes?

好的。然後荷馬，我認為這只是為了向你澄清。當我們之前談到維護時，您曾指出原油裝置維護和下游維護之間可能存在差異。因此，假設指導意見是粗略的單位維護，我們是否正在考慮運行一些下游單位的能力？或者我們應該從數量上來理解這一點？

Roger, it's Greg again. It is -- when you see those big throughput impacts, that tends to tell you that's the front end of the plant that's shutting down. We may try to run some downstream stuff, but it really depends on being able to get feedstocks into some of those particular markets.

羅傑，又是格雷格。是的——當您看到這些巨大的吞吐量影響時，這往往會告訴您這是正在關閉的工廠的前端。我們可能會嘗試運行一些下游產品，但這實際上取決於能否將原料送入某些特定市場。

You think about the mid-continent in particular, it's hard to bring other feedstocks in when you've got the front end of the plants down. So you probably don't see as much of that in those regions, North Atlantic as well as you would see in like the Gulf Coast.

尤其是考慮到中部大陸，當工廠前端停工時，就很難引進其他原料。因此，你可能不會在北大西洋以及墨西哥灣沿岸等地區看到那麼多這樣的情況。

Right, that would have been my interpretation as well. Okay, thank you. I'll turn it.

是的，這也是我的解釋。好的，謝謝。我會轉的。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德、派珀·桑德勒。

Can you walk through the decision to close the Benicia refinery? Why now? What's changed? And how should we think about the future risk to -- or the environment for the Wilmington refinery?

您能解釋一下關閉貝尼西亞煉油廠的決定嗎？為什麼是現在？有什麼變化？我們該如何看待威爾明頓煉油廠未來面臨的風險或環境問題？

Hey, Ryan, it's Lane. So when you think about the West Coast, I mean, California has been pursuing policies to move away from fossil fuels for really for the past 20 years. And the consequence of that is the regulatory and enforcement environment is the most stringent and difficult of anywhere else in North America.

嘿，瑞安，我是萊恩。所以當你想到西海岸時，我的意思是，加州在過去的 20 年裡一直在推行擺脫化石燃料的政策。結果是，這裡的監管和執法環境是北美其他任何地方中最嚴格、最困難的。

And so if you sort of think about what's happened on the West Coast since COVID, you've had several refineries closed. You have another one closed this year. So then you start thinking about our asset base and we're looking at the difficulty and all that. So Benicia operates in the more difficult part of California with respect to the regulatory and enforcement side of this. And then on top of that, Benicia costs considerably more to maintain versus Wilmington.

所以，如果你想想自新冠疫情以來西海岸發生的事情，你會發現已經有幾家煉油廠關閉了。今年您又關閉了一個。那麼你開始考慮我們的資產基礎，我們正在研究困難和所有這些。因此，從監管和執法方面來看，貝尼西亞位於加州較為困難的地區。除此之外，貝尼西亞的維護成本比威明頓高出許多。

Okay. And then maybe shifting to renewable diesel markets. Can you maybe walk through where we are on the -- I mean the markets are trying to reach a new equilibrium under the new PTC regime. Can you maybe walk through where you think we are on the path to normalization and the timing to get there?

好的。然後也許轉向再生柴油市場。您能否介紹一下我們目前的情況——我的意思是，市場正試圖在新的 PTC 制度下達到新的平衡。您能否介紹一下我們目前在實現正常化的道路上處於什麼階段以及何時可以實現這一目標？

And then maybe within that, I know you booked some 45 credits in the first quarter. How much should we expect to see you book? Should we expect to see that improve going forward from here. So I guess, maybe just some thoughts on how that market normalizes and maybe improves over the course of the year?

然後也許在其中，我知道你在第一季預訂了大約 45 個積分。我們預計您的預訂量是多少？我們是否應該期待看到情況從現在開始有所改善？所以我想，也許只是一些關於該市場如何在一年內正常化並可能改善的想法？

Yeah. This is Eric. As you look at the first quarter, one thing that we should be clear about is that we had catalyst changes on DGD 1 and DGD 2, had a pretty significant volume impact in the first quarter that reduced a lot of the margin opportunity for the segment. But as you said, we got PTC guidance in January.

是的。這是埃里克。當您回顧第一季時，我們應該清楚的一件事是，我們對 DGD 1 和 DGD 2 進行了催化劑變化，這對第一季的銷量產生了相當大的影響，從而減少了該部門的大量利潤機會。但正如您所說，我們在一月份獲得了 PTC 指導。

And in February, we pivoted both operations and our contracts with customers in order to begin capturing the PTC. So we didn't get a complete capture in the first quarter. We did get capture on naphtha and staff, but only about half of the RD was able to be captured because it took us a little while to get those contracts and operations shifted over.

今年 2 月，我們調整了營運和與客戶的合同，以開始獲得 PTC。所以我們在第一季並沒有完全佔優勢。我們確實捕獲了石腦油和員工，但只有大約一半的 RD 能夠被捕獲，因為我們花了一點時間才將這些合約和業務轉移過來。

Going forward, we see we should get 100% of eligible credits on PTC for all three of those product lines. Now there are a lot of feedstock eligibility issues. So it's not 100% of our full volume. It will be 100% of the eligible feedstocks. And so as that market is figuring out where the net balance is going to be between tariffs, PTC eligibility, and just call it, flat price, we still see the market moving around there. But going forward, we think we've got that solved.

展望未來，我們認為我們應該獲得這三條產品線 100% 的 PTC 合格積分。現在存在許多原料資格問題。所以它不是我們全部產量的 100%。它將是 100% 的合格原料。因此，當市場正在確定關稅、PTC 資格和固定價格之間的淨平衡時，我們仍然看到市場在那裡波動。但展望未來，我們認為我們已經解決了這個問題。

So as I said before, if you look at the shift from the $1 blenders tax credit to this CI based to PTC, everyone knew there was going to be a drop in profitability going from the previous program to the current program. For PTC on waste oils, which are still the most favorite feedstocks, that's $0.50 to $0.60 a gallon on domestic -- primarily domestic feedstocks.

所以正如我之前所說的，如果你看一下從 1 美元的攪拌機稅收抵免到基於 PTC 的 CI 的轉變，每個人都知道從以前的計劃到當前的計劃，盈利能力將會下降。對於廢油的 PTC 來說，這仍然是最受歡迎的原料，國內（主要是國內原料）的價格為每加侖 0.50 美元到 0.60 美元。

Foreign feedstocks into SaaS still count, but foreign feedstocks into RD do not. And so we have kind of a unique position there that as you look at your product allocations and your feedstocks, you have to take all of that into account.

進入 SaaS 的外國原料仍然有效，但進入 RD 的外國原料則無效。因此，我們在那裡具有一種獨特的地位，當您考慮您的產品分配和原料時，您必須將所有這些都考慮在內。

The other backdrop you have here is we've seen a big drop in domestic production, as Gary mentioned in his comments on the macro. You've also seen a big drop in foreign imports. So the overall D4 RIN production has dropped pretty significantly. Combine that with this conversation that a lot of trade groups have gone to the EPA and asked for an increase of the RIN obligation beginning in 2026 and 2027 to 5.5 billion gallons for D4 RINs.

另一個背景是，我們看到國內產量大幅下降，正如加里在宏觀評論中提到的那樣。您也看到外國進口量大幅下降。因此，D4 RIN 的整體產量大幅下降。結合這次談話，許多貿易團體已經向 EPA 提出要求，從 2026 年和 2027 年開始將 D4 RIN 的 RIN 義務增加到 55 億加侖。

So you have a drop in production plus this anticipated increase obligation, there is some potential tailwind out there in the future. At some point, if that gets proposed to the EPA and the EPA approves that probably sometime in the third quarter or fourth quarter of this year.

因此，產量下降加上預期的增加義務，未來可能會出現一些順風。如果該提案被提交給 EPA 並且 EPA 批准，那麼很可能是在今年第三季或第四季的某個時候。

So you've got a little bit of upside potential there. The other one that may be more recent or sooner to be revealed is the California LCFS program, those obligations that were pushed off initially have been resubmitted to the OAL for approval. So in the next 30 days or so, we should hear from California on whether or not they're going to increase the obligation by 9%, going back to Jan 1, that should put another potential increase of LCFS prices on the horizon. So hard to predict what California will do on that, but that is the time frame for when we should get an answer yes or no on LCFS modifications.

所以你還有一點上升潛力。另一個可能更近期或更早公佈的是加州低碳食品計劃 (LCFS)，那些最初被推遲的義務已重新提交給 OAL 批准。因此，在接下來的 30 天左右，我們應該會聽到加州的消息，他們是否會將義務增加 9%，從 1 月 1 日起，這應該會使 LCFS 價格再次上漲。因此很難預測加州將對此採取什麼措施，但這就是我們應該對 LCFS 修改給出肯定或否定答案的時間範圍。

So if you look at all of this and think about, okay, how does this all net out. We have seen the D4 RIN move, the LCFS price has not. On the D4 RIN, the increase is not enough to offset in the veg oil space, it only gets $0.10 to $0.20 a gallon on the PTC.

所以如果你看一下這一切並思考一下，好吧，這一切是如何產生的。我們已經看到 D4 RIN 變動，但 LCFS 價格卻沒有變動。在 D4 RIN 上，增幅不足以抵消植物油領域的漲幅，在 PTC 上每加侖僅上漲 0.10 至 0.20 美元。

You need RINs -- you still need RINs to go up another $0.40 or $0.50 in order to offset that $0.80 loss that veg oil is in, which is why you're seeing a big drop in domestic BD production. So as the market tries to figure this out, the D4 RIN has to move up substantially whether that driver is the continued drop in production or imports and/or this anticipated increase beginning in the 2026 obligation. That's going to set what the overall volume looks like in terms of performance versus overall obligation.

你需要 RIN——你仍然需要 RIN 再上漲 0.40 美元或 0.50 美元才能抵消植物油的 0.80 美元損失，這就是為什麼你會看到國內 BD 產量大幅下降。因此，當市場試圖弄清楚這一點時，D4 RIN 必須大幅上漲，無論其驅動因素是產量或進口量的持續下降，還是從 2026 年義務開始的預期成長。這將決定總體表現與總體義務之間的關係。

So it looks like the -- in 2Q, we're starting to see some of this potentially improve. I think it's still more of a the upside looks more like a back half of the year for the RD segment. And then I think for our platform, specifically, which is still the most advantaged platform when it comes to CI, market access, and just overall ability to demonstrate compliance into all these different programs, we still see we'll capture the PTC and we'll be the ones that can optimize between the feedstocks that are that are most desired into these compliance programs and then whether or not they're covered by the PTC.

因此看起來——在第二季度，我們開始看到一些潛在的改善。我認為，對於研發部門來說，下半年的前景還是比較好的。然後我認為，對於我們的平台而言，具體來說，在 CI、市場准入以及展示對所有這些不同計劃的合規性的整體能力方面，它仍然是最具優勢的平台，我們仍然認為我們將獲得 PTC，並且我們將能夠優化這些合規計劃中最需要的原料，無論它們是否受到 PTC 的覆蓋。

Great. Thanks for all the detail.

偉大的。感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Hi, Eric, just to follow up on that last question. So it sounds like the drop in production in imports is structural absent a recovery in deferring and maybe more to come on that front. From a supply and competitive landscape perspective, do you see some of that supply creeping back over time? Or how does this settle out as the market tries to by an equilibrium?

你好，艾瑞克，我只是想繼續回答最後一個問題。因此，聽起來進口產量的下降是結構性的，如果沒有延期的恢復，而且在這方面可能還會有更多下降。從供應和競爭格局的角度來看，您是否認為部分供應會隨著時間的推移而回升？或者當市場試圖達到平衡時，這種情況又會如何解決？

I think if you look at -- maybe I'll put it in context of this RIN obligation. At the current 3.3 billion gallons versus what we've seen in the last couple of years, the RD and BD segment production capacity could far exceed that RIN obligation. And so what was really keeping a lot of that volume flowing was the BTC.

我想如果你看一下——也許我會把它放在這個 RIN 義務的背景下。與過去幾年的產量相比，目前的產量為 33 億加侖，RD 和 BD 部分的生產能力可能遠遠超過 RIN 義務。因此，真正保持大量交易流動的是 BTC。

And so when you take the BTC out, then suddenly, as we've always said, the BTC is what kept the marginal producer operating. So we see a lot of those -- and this is public, there's a lot of announcements of BD and RD operations that are either slowing down or taking a pause in operations. And so everyone is looking to see when that marginal producer will come back into the market because right now, there's not an incentive for them to run, particularly any kind of veg-based DD or RD.

因此，當你取出 BTC 時，突然間，正如我們一直所說的那樣，BTC 是維持邊際生產者運作的因素。因此，我們看到了很多這樣的情況——這是公開的，有很多關於 BD 和 RD 運營的公告，這些運營要么放緩，要么暫停。因此，每個人都在關注邊際生產者何時會重返市場，因為目前他們沒有動力去經營，尤其是任何基於蔬菜的 DD 或 RD。

So if you see the obligation increase or you see the RIN bank tightened to the point where we are physically short, I think this year, we are still long in the D4 market. But it is starting to tighten. And you can kind of see this in the D4/D6 RIN spread, which is sometimes reaching $0.10 a gallon on the differential there.

因此，如果您看到債務增加或看到 RIN 銀行收緊到我們實際短缺的程度，我認為今年我們在 D4 市場仍然做多。但它已開始收緊。您可以在 D4/D6 RIN 價差中看到這一點，有時差價會達到每加侖 0.10 美元。

So there's some anticipation and recognition of this. I think as that continues through the year, if you see RIN prices react, like I said, it's got to be $0.40 or $0.50 additional move from what it's already moved. So we've seen D4 RINs go from the $0.60s up until the $0.90s, sometimes over $1. That is still not enough to incentivize the BD producer that used to get $1.

因此人們對此有一定的期待與認可。我認為，隨著這種情況持續到今年，如果您看到 RIN 價格做出反應，就像我說的，它必須在已經移動的基礎上再增加 0.40 美元或 0.50 美元。因此，我們看到 D4 RIN 從 0.60 美元漲至 0.90 美元，有時甚至超過 1 美元。這仍然不足以激勵過去只能獲得 1 美元的 BD 製作人。

And so how that will rationalize is, I think everyone will -- and there's no question from an ag standpoint, the farmers want to run their BD units and their soybean all Otherwise, you're going to see soybean oil continue to get stranded from a fuel market.

因此，我認為每個人都會認為這是合理的——從農業的角度來看，毫無疑問，農民希望經營他們的 BD 單位和大豆，否則，你會看到大豆油繼續在燃料市場上滯留。

So I think it's really waiting to see if that RIN is going to move to offset the loss of the transition from the BTC to the PTC. I think that's the only way you're going to see incremental production come on in the back half of the year.

所以我認為它真的在等著看 RIN 是否會採取行動來抵消從 BTC 到 PTC 的過渡所帶來的損失。我認為這是在今年下半年實現產量增量的唯一方法。

That's helpful. And on Mexico, within the refining segment, would you be able to provide an update on your suspension from the registry of importers? What led to this? And what is the path forward from here?

這很有幫助。關於墨西哥煉油領域，您能否提供暫停進口商登記的最新資訊？是什麼導致了這種情況？那麼接下來的前進之路是什麼呢？

Yeah, Theresa, this is Gary. If you haven't heard, I'm happy to announce that we have had our import permit reinstated. Go through a little of the history on April 9, we were notified by Mexico's tax administration service that our import permit was being temporarily suspended. We were told at the time that customs in Mexico had some questions as a result of an investigation that they had done that we weren't privy to.

是的，特蕾莎，這是加里。如果您還沒有聽說，我很高興地宣布，我們的進口許可證已經恢復。回顧一下歷史，4 月 9 日，我們收到墨西哥稅務管理部門的通知，我們的進口許可證被暫時吊銷。當時我們被告知，墨西哥海關根據他們所做的調查提出了一些疑問，而我們對此並不知情。

Since we began our operations in Mexico, we've maintained a policy of full cooperation with all the authorities there, implemented rigorous traceability and security controls throughout the supply chain. So it was disappointing to us that our permit was suspended while at any prior notification or opportunity to clarify. And the timing of all this right before the Easter holiday was especially bad.

自從我們在墨西哥開始營運以來，我們一直與當地所有當局保持充分合作的政策，並在整個供應鏈中實施嚴格的可追溯性和安全控制。因此，我們的許可證在沒有任何事先通知或澄清機會的情況下被吊銷，這讓我們感到失望。而這一切發生在復活節假期之前，時機尤其糟糕。

Nevertheless, once we had the opportunity to reach out to the stakeholders in country, sit down and go through all the records and data with customs in Mexico, the custom authority recognized that Valero was in full compliance of our import reporting and tax obligations, and we were quickly exonerated of any wrongdoing.

儘管如此，當我們有機會與該國的利益相關者取得聯繫，坐下來與墨西哥海關一起審查所有記錄和數據時，海關當局承認瓦萊羅完全遵守了我們的進口報告和納稅義務，並且我們很快就被免除了任何不當行為。

So although this is all unfortunate and created significant supply disruption for our customers, it is part of an effort in Mexico to limit the importation of illegal fuel, which is an effort we very much applaud and will positively impact our business down there going forward.

因此，儘管這一切都令人遺憾，並給我們的客戶帶來了嚴重的供應中斷，但這是墨西哥限制非法燃料進口的努力的一部分，我們非常讚賞這一努力，並將對我們今後在那裡的業務產生積極影響。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Yeah. Good morning, Lane team. You guys have done a great job of continuing to return cash to shareholders. And you've talked about cash balances of $4 billion to $5 billion, and I think you're at $4.6 billion right now. So just talk about in this period of macro uncertainty, how are you thinking about taking advantage of the balance sheet to shrink the share count.

是的。早安，Lane 團隊。你們在繼續向股東返還現金方面做得非常出色。您談到現金餘額為 40 億至 50 億美元，我認為現在的現金餘額為 46 億美元。那麼，請談談在這個宏觀不確定的時期，您如何考慮利用資產負債表來減少股票數量。

Neil, it's Homer. Yeah, you're right. I mean, obviously, given the strength of our balance sheet and our current cash position, we have plenty of flexibility. And we continue to lean into buybacks with excess free cash flow going to shareholder returns. In fact, as you can -- as I'm sure you're aware.

尼爾，我是荷馬。是的，你說得對。我的意思是，顯然，鑑於我們的資產負債表實力和當前現金狀況，我們有足夠的靈活性。我們將繼續傾向回購，並將多餘的自由現金流用於股東回報。事實上，正如你所知道的——我相信你已經知道了。

We've drawn down excess cash the last three quarters as we've guided to. And hopefully, this quarter demonstrates the resilience of the portfolio even in the low margin environment. So I think looking forward, assuming the balance sheet is strong as it is now and like we've said in the past, where our CapEx and dividends are covered, that commitment to shareholder returns should remain of lower and any sort of excess free cash flow will continue to go towards share buybacks.

正如我們所預期的，過去三個季度我們已經動用了過多的現金。希望本季能夠展現出即使在低利潤環境下投資組合的韌性。因此，我認為展望未來，假設資產負債表像現在一樣強勁，並且像我們過去所說的那樣，我們的資本支出和股息都得到覆蓋，那麼對股東回報的承諾應該保持較低水平，任何形式的超額自由現金流都將繼續用於股票回購。

Okay, thank you. And then the follow-up, Gary, to your comments about just inventories. For diesel, in particular, distillate, it looks really tight relative to the margins. So can you speak specifically to that product as you think about the distillate pool, how you're thinking about the outlook for Jet as it feeds into that? A lot of moving pieces in diesel, but it feels like it's ground zero for the refining debate.

好的，謝謝。然後，加里，繼續回答你關於庫存的評論。對於柴油，特別是餾分油來說，利潤率看起來確實很緊張。那麼，當您考慮餾分油池時，您能否具體談談該產品，以及您如何看待 Jet 的前景？柴油中有很多變動因素，但感覺它是煉油爭論的中心。

Yeah, I agree. Again, kind of some of the things I pointed out, I mean, it's kind of amazing when you're close to historic lows on diesel inventory in the United States, and yet we have open arms export to Latin America and Europe. It tells you both those regions are very short diesel as well.

是的，我同意。再次，正如我指出的一些事情，我的意思是，當美國柴油庫存接近歷史最低水平時，我們卻張開雙臂向拉丁美洲和歐洲出口，這真是令人驚訝。它告訴你這兩個地區的柴油都非常短缺。

On Jet, we saw very strong nominations in the first part of the year. You're starting to see some of the airlines talk about weaker jet demand moving forward. We haven't seen signs of that yet. Historically, though, when people start to switch and not take flights for their summer vacation plans, it translates into higher gasoline demand.

關於《Jet》，我們在今年上半年看到了非常強勁的提名。您開始看到一些航空公司談論未來噴射機需求減弱。我們還沒有看到這種跡象。然而，從歷史上看，當人們開始改變暑假計劃不搭飛機時，就會導致汽油需求增加。

John Royall, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is a follow-up on your 2Q guide. Wayne mentioned operational flexibility and his opener. Should we think about throughputs as relatively locked in sitting at the end of April? Or can we see some economic adjustments if this downside demand case were to materialize and reflect more in spot cracks?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。所以我的第一個問題是對您的第二季指南的後續關注。韋恩提到了營運靈活性和他的開場白。我們是否應該認為吞吐量在四月底相對鎖定？或者，如果這種下行需求情況成為現實，並且更多地反映在現貨裂縫中，我們是否可以看到一些經濟調整？

John, it's Greg. I would tell you, that's how we see the quarter shaping up as we look at it now. Obviously, as we always do, we evaluate market conditions and adjust our plans accordingly. But I think if you think about what Gary just shared kind of the macro view, it'd be hard to imagine in this short-term period, this next few months that we would see ourselves moving to some kind of a lower throughput on an economic basis.

約翰，我是格雷格。我想告訴你，這就是我們現在看到的本季的情況。顯然，正如我們一貫的做法，我們會評估市場狀況並相應地調整我們的計劃。但我認為，如果你考慮一下加里剛才分享的宏觀觀點，就很難想像在這個短期內，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們會看到自己在經濟基礎上轉向某種較低的吞吐量。

So I think you can probably say this is where we expect to be. And if things improve market-wise, we're obviously going to continue to maximize throughput, maximize margin to capture as much value as we can.

所以我想你可能會說這就是我們所期望的。如果市場情況好轉，我們顯然會繼續最大化吞吐量、最大化利潤，以獲得盡可能多的價值。

Yeah. So really, our lower guidance is a function of maintenance, not some outlook that we think there's lower demand in the future.

是的。因此，實際上，我們較低的指導是維護的功能，而不是我們認為未來需求會降低的某種前景。

Yeah, absolutely. And maybe just on that, we always talk about doing a lot of maintenance in the first quarter. If you think about the regions we're talking about, the Mid-Continent and the North Atlantic, those aren't regions that really lend themselves from a weather perspective to doing a lot of work early in the year.

是的，絕對是如此。也許就在這一點上，我們總是談論在第一季進行大量的維護。如果你考慮我們正在談論的地區，即中部大陸和北大西洋，那麼從天氣角度來看，這些地區並不適合在年初做大量的工作。

You kind of wait until you've got a little better weather take less risk from that standpoint. So that's why you see a bit more work in the second quarter than you might typically see out of us. And you don't see a lot in the Gulf Coast, where we tend to do that in the first quarter.

從這個角度來看，你應該等到天氣好轉一些再承擔較少的風險。所以這就是為什麼你會看到我們第二季的工作量比通常情況下要多一些。而在墨西哥灣沿岸，你不會看到太多這樣的情況，我們往往在第一季就會出現這種情況。

That's very helpful. And then my follow-up is just another one on Benicia and forgive me if I'm overanalyzing this. But just reading the wording on the press release, it struck us as maybe not 100% definitive in terms of the plan. So maybe my question is, is the door open for the state or the city to make any changes or concessions that could cause you to think differently about your plans for Benicia. And do you expect that there will be some sort of discussion there?

這非常有幫助。然後我的後續行動只是關於貝尼西亞的另一個行動，如果我對此進行了過度分析，請原諒我。但光是閱讀新聞稿上的措辭，我們就覺得該計劃可能不是 100% 確定的。所以我的問題是，州政府或市政府是否願意做出任何改變或讓步，讓您對貝尼西亞的計劃有不同的看法。您是否預期那裡會有某種討論？

Yeah. This is Rich Walsh. Let me try to answer that. I mean, just to be clear, our current intent is to close the refinery. And obviously, there's been some initial concern from the state leadership and we've already had meetings with the CEC. We're working with them to minimize the impacts that would result from the loss of the refinery.

是的。我是里奇·沃爾什。讓我嘗試回答這個問題。我的意思是，明確地說，我們目前的意圖是關閉煉油廠。顯然，州領導層最初有一些擔憂，我們已經與 CEC 舉行了會議。我們正在與他們合作，盡量減少煉油廠損失所造成的影響。

I do think there's a genuine interest in California to avoid the closure, but it's also a really very complex regulatory and policy-driven environment that we're dealing with. And so if you understand that challenge and how significant it is, I think you need to factor that in. But yeah, we are having discussions with the state, but our intent right now is to close the refinery.

我確實認為加州確實有意避免關閉，但我們所面臨的監管和政策驅動環境也非常複雜。因此，如果你了解這個挑戰以及它的重要性，我認為你需要將其考慮在內。但是的，我們正在與州政府進行討論，但我們目前的目的是關閉煉油廠。

Very clear. Thank you.

非常清楚。謝謝。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Lane, I'm sorry to pound on the West Coast, but I also have a question on that, if you don't mind. In the press release, you -- well, sorry, I feel like it's been hammered pretty heavily this morning already. But in the press release, you did mention that you also had impaired Wilmington I think that was the implication of the language.

謝謝。大家早安。萊恩，很抱歉打擾西海岸，但是如果您不介意的話，我也有一個問題。在新聞稿中，你——嗯，抱歉，我覺得今天早上它已經受到了相當嚴重的打擊。但在新聞稿中，你確實提到你也損害了威爾明頓，我認為這是語言的意思。

Can you talk about what the prognosis is for Wilmington as part of this overall debate over the viability -- the future viability of the West Coast assets now. I've got a follow-up on the same topic, please.

作為目前關於西海岸資產未來可行性的整體辯論的一部分，您能否談談對威爾明頓的預測是什麼？我對同一主題有後續了解，請告知。

Well, I'll start -- I'll let the Homer start to explaining the impairment process, and then I'll add to it. So go ahead.

好吧，我先開始——我先讓荷馬開始解釋損傷過程，然後我再補充一些內容。所以繼續吧。

Yeah, Doug, the impairment -- so obviously, we performed an impairment asset on both of these assets based on the continued evaluation of strategic alternatives, right, which remains -- and based on the analysis, we obviously concluded that the current book value of the refinery was not recoverable.

是的，道格，減值——很明顯，我們根據對戰略替代方案的持續評估對這兩項資產進行了減值資產評估，對的，這仍然存在——並且根據分析，我們顯然得出結論，煉油廠的當前賬面價值是無法收回的。

And so therefore, we revised it down to reflect the fair value of the assets which resulted in an impairment loss as you cited, both for Benicia and for Wilmington. In terms of the overall impairment, it was $1.13 billion. Of which about $900 million was for Bonita $901 million and Wilmington was $230 million.

因此，我們將其下調，以反映資產的公允價值，這導致了您提到的貝尼西亞和威爾明頓的減損損失。就整體減損而言，其價值為11.3億美元。其中約 9 億美元用於博尼塔 9.01 億美元，威明頓 2.3 億美元。

Okay. That's helpful. So my follow-up guys is really to think about implications going forward. And I don't know the extent to what you can share, but Obviously, presumably, these are free cash flow negative, otherwise you wouldn't be taking the impairment. So you can give us some idea of what the implications are for your capital spending going forward, when Benicia does go offline, and whether Wilmington is still free cash flow positive? And I'll leave it there.

好的。這很有幫助。因此，我的後續行動其實是在思考未來的影響。我不知道您能分享多少，但顯然，據推測，這些都是自由現金流負值，否則您不會承擔減值。那麼，您能否告訴我們，當貝尼西亞下線時，這會對您未來的資本支出產生什麼影響，以及威爾明頓是否仍然有自由現金流為正？我就把它留在那裡。

Doug, this is Greg. I'll take a shot at answering that the best I can. Others might jump in. But yes, so we don't tend to talk about refinery by refinery performance. But I think it's probably fair to say on the West Coast, if you look back over the last 10 years, Benicia was generally higher operating expense, lower EBITDA, higher capital and then as a result, obviously, lower cash flow compared to Wilmington.

道格，這是格雷格。我會盡力回答這個問題。其他人可能會加入進來。但是的，所以我們不傾向於逐一討論煉油廠的表現。但我認為，如果回顧過去 10 年，可以公平地說，在西海岸，與威爾明頓相比，貝尼西亞的營運費用通常較高，EBITDA 較低，資本較高，因此，顯然現金流較低。

So I'm not sure we'll break it down to any more detail than that, but that would give you some sense for how those perform relative to each other. And then I think it's been mentioned when you have a large turnaround in front of you, which is a large cash outlay. And you think about how the facility has performed looking back, while that's no guarantee of the future, it does give you some sense or cause you to pause as to whether or not this is the time to take different action, which is what you see us doing.

所以我不確定我們是否會將其分解得更詳細，但這會讓你了解它們之間的相對錶現。然後我想當你面臨巨大的轉變時就會提到這一點，那就是一筆巨大的現金支出。想想該設施過去的表現，雖然這並不能保證未來，但它確實給你一些啟發或讓你停下來思考現在是否是採取不同行動的時候，而這正是你看到我們正在做的。

Great. That's very helpful, guys. Thanks so much. I'll take the rest of life.

偉大的。夥計們，這非常有幫助。非常感謝。我將盡我所能。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Hey guys, good morning. I have to apologize because I want to ask a slightly different angle on, Wilmington. Can you tell us that when was the last major turnaround that you did at Wilmington?

大家好，早安。我必須道歉，因為我想從稍微不同的角度詢問威爾明頓的問題。您能告訴我們您在威明頓進行的最後一次重大轉變是什麼時候嗎？

Go back and look. The biggest one is the SEC, we did last year.

回去看看。最大的一個是 SEC，我們去年就這麼做了。

Yes, just here just recently, we did the FCC unit, Paul, if that's what you're looking for.

是的，就在最近，我們做了 FCC 單元，保羅，如果這就是你要找的。

Yeah. So I mean, should we assume that as a result, at least for the next two or three years, you do not have any major outlay that you will expect it for Wilmington in other withstand whatever decision that you're going to make is probably going to be post two or three years?

是的。所以我的意思是，我們是否應該假設，至少在未來兩三年內，您不會為威爾明頓進行任何重大支出，而無論您將要做出的決定可能都是兩三年後的決定？

Paul, nice try. But unfortunately, we can't comment on our future turnaround plan.

保羅，很好的嘗試。但不幸的是，我們無法評論我們未來的扭虧為盈計畫。

Okay. That's fair. Second question on FAS, maybe this is for Eric. What's your production expectation in the second quarter based on the current margin for bank? And also that what's the current game plan for the second unit FID.

好的。這很公平。關於 FAS 的第二個問題，也許這是問 Eric 的。根據目前的銀行保證金，您對第二季的產量預期是多少？另外，第二單元 FID 的當前遊戲計劃是什麼。

Yeah. So second quarter, we -- I would say we are still not in a max SAF mode. If you look at Europe, which the mandate there is still one of the primary outlets for SAF. We see HBO over SAF in the Arthur quote. So our last barrel economics are still looking at some barrels are more economic to put into an RD product into Europe.

是的。因此，第二季度，我想說我們仍未處於最大 SAF 模式。如果你看看歐洲，你會發現那裡仍然是 SAF 的主要銷售管道之一。在亞瑟的引言中，我們看到了 HBO 優於 SAF。因此，我們最後的桶經濟學仍在研究將一些桶子投入到歐洲的研發產品中是否更經濟。

But overall, we see growing interest in SAF. We see actually some growing interest in the voluntary markets with some companies that are remaining committed to their carbon reduction commitments. So we do see that SAF is continuing to grow and the contracts are continuing to grow.

但總體而言，我們看到人們對 SAF 的興趣日益濃厚。事實上，我們看到一些公司對自願市場的興趣日益濃厚，並且仍然致力於履行其碳減排承諾。因此，我們確實看到 SAF 在持續成長，合約也在持續成長。

In terms of when we would look at a second unit, I think we still have to see how this market develops through the rest of this year. We see in the US there's interest in the US, and like I said, particularly some of these corporations that are maybe looking to buy direct rather than through an airline.

至於我們何時會考慮第二個單元，我認為我們仍然需要觀察這個市場在今年剩餘時間內如何發展。我們看到美國對此很感興趣，正如我所說，特別是一些公司可能希望直接購買而不是透過航空公司購買。

But until we see demand exceed our capacity and we get some certainty on an outlook in terms of policy, maybe going back to the LCFS and RIN comments I made earlier -- it's hard -- we have the engineering done to do the same project at St. Charles, but right now, I think we'd have to wait and really see how this market develops before we did any further commitment from a certainty standpoint.

但是，直到我們看到需求超過我們的產能，並且我們在政策前景上獲得一些確定性，也許可以回到我之前對 LCFS 和 RIN 的評論 - 這很難 - 我們已經完成了在聖查爾斯進行相同項目的工程，但是現在，我認為我們必須等待並真正觀察這個市場如何發展，然後我們才能從確定性的角度做出任何進一步的承諾。

And can you help us understand the economics because I thought with the PTC, you get a $1 per gallon for SAF. And so that should help to really move up the economic and assume you get some premium for selling SAF compared to ALD. So you're saying that even in today's economic and PTC, there's still not sufficient for you to try to max out the SAF comparing to ALD.

您能否幫助我們了解其中的經濟因素？因為我認為，透過 PTC，您可以獲得每加侖 1 美元的 SAF 價格。因此，這應該有助於真正推動經濟發展，並且假設與 ALD 相比，銷售 SAF 可以獲得一些溢價。所以您的意思是，即使在當今的經濟和 PTC 條件下，與 ALD 相比，您仍沒有足夠的能力去最大化 SAF。

So that is correct. The PTC is not adequate by itself to justify the project. The other thing to keep in mind is when you are allocating, so if you have a unit that makes 50% RD, 50% SAF, you can't allocate all the feedstocks to one product. You have to allocate based on your product mix coming off the tower.

這是正確的。PTC 本身並不足以證明該項目的合理性。要記住的另一件事是分配時，如果您有一個生產 50% RD、50% SAF 的單位，那麼您不能將所有原料分配給一種產品。您必須根據從塔上下來的產品組合進行分配。

And so what you see is, given, say, a domestic feedstock, you have -- you'll get 50% of PTC on your SAP product and of your PTC on your RD product. You can't allocate 100% to SAF. So because of that split and the fact that half of the products you make gets a lower PTC, you have to look to SAF to carry more of the work in order to justify the project. And as I said before, the PTC is much lower compared to the BTC, and that is reducing the overall RD margin.

因此，您所看到的是，假設有一種國內原料，那麼您將在 SAP 產品上獲得 50% 的 PTC，在 RD 產品上獲得 50% 的 PTC。您不能將 100% 分配給 SAF。因此，由於這種分裂以及您生產的一半產品獲得較低 PTC 的事實，您必須依靠 SAF 來承擔更多的工作以證明該專案的合理性。正如我之前所說，PTC 與 BTC 相比要低得多，這降低了整體研發利潤。

So if you think about -- if RD was breakeven and SAF was positive, then the SAF market has to be even stronger in order to meet your minimum 25% return, whereas before both products were positive. And so really, what we're looking for is you've got to see the RD market become more attractive. And then I think you still have to see the SAF demand exceed our current capability before we would commit to a further project.

因此，如果您考慮一下——如果 RD 實現盈虧平衡，而 SAF 為正，那麼 SAF 市場必須更加強勁才能滿足您最低 25% 的回報，而之前兩種產品均為正。所以，我們真正希望的是看到研發市場變得更具吸引力。然後我認為你仍然必須看到 SAF 的需求超過我們目前的能力，我們才會承諾進一步的專案。

But yes, on paper, it looks like it should work. But I think you've got to see the market actually create a pull before we would commit to doing that project.

但從理論上來說，它看起來應該是可行的。但我認為，在我們承諾做這個專案之前，你必須看到市場確實產生了吸引力。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的喬·萊奇（Joe Laetsch）。

Great, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So I was hoping to get your perspective on PADD V going forward with one foundry closing this year, closing early next year. California is going to become even more reliant on imports. Does this result just more volatile and probably higher margins to pull sufficient imports on the West Coast? Or how do you see it playing out?

太好了，謝謝。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。因此，我希望了解您對 PADD V 未來發展的看法，一家代工廠將於今年關閉，明年年初也將關閉。加州將變得更加依賴進口。這是否會導致市場更加動盪，利潤率可能更高，從而吸引西海岸足夠的進口？或者您認為它會產生什麼結果？

Yeah, this is Gary. Our view has been California will potentially be short gasoline for several years with periods of higher import needs during turnarounds and unplanned outages. Diesel, the market looks well supplied. But the tighter supply-demand balances will likely cause more volatility in the market when unplanned refinery outages occur. However, from what we've seen so far, these tend to be fairly short-lived and only last until waterborne barrels can make their way into the market.

是的，這是加里。我們認為，加州未來幾年可能會面臨汽油短缺，在檢修和意外停運期間進口需求會更高。柴油，市場供應看起來充足。但當煉油廠發生意外停產時，供需平衡趨緊可能會導致市場更加波動。然而，從我們目前看到的情況來看，這些趨勢往往相當短暫，只持續到水性桶進入市場為止。

Great, thanks. That makes sense. And then shifting gears, I wanted to ask about the ethanol segment. While margins are still challenged, [Kafer] came in a bit better than we had expected. Could you just talk to the latest dynamics for that segment and outlook going forward for this year?

太好了，謝謝。這很有道理。然後換個話題，我想問一下有關乙醇部分的問題。儘管利潤率仍然面臨挑戰，但[Kafer]的業績比我們預期的要好一些。您能否談談該領域的最新動態以及今年的前景？

Yeah, this is Eric, I think, it's interesting. We're about where we were last year. If you look at the dynamics of this current outlook, you're going to have a record planting for corn. Brazil has a record crop that is in the ground. So we expect corn prices -- flat corn prices to be at or below where they are from last year.

是的，這是艾瑞克，我認為，這很有趣。我們與去年的情況差不多。如果你看一下當前的前景動態，你會發現玉米種植面積將創下歷史新高。巴西的農作物產量創下了歷史新高。因此，我們預計玉米價格——持平的玉米價格將與去年持平或低於去年的水平。

Natural gas is cheap. So from a feedstock standpoint, ethanol looks advantaged. Obviously, it follows a lot of gasoline demand. We're the largest exporter of ethanol. So we saw record exports in the first quarter.

天然氣很便宜。因此，從原料的角度來看，乙醇具有優勢。顯然，這是由於汽油需求量很大。我們是最大的乙醇出口國。因此，我們在第一季看到了創紀錄的出口。

But I think it's going to be a question of do you see the gasoline demand that Gary mentioned earlier? And if so, then I think ethanol will look stronger in the -- certainly, in the second quarter and third quarter.

但我認為問題是，您是否看到了加里之前提到的汽油需求？如果是這樣，那麼我認為乙醇在第二季和第三季肯定會表現得更強勁。

But right now, I'd say we're kind of right around mid-cycle. Last year, it was right around mid-cycle. So I'd say ethanol looks like sort of a mid-cycle year from an outlook standpoint. But from our operation plan, I mean, we'll be at max production given these economics.

但現在，我想說我們正處於週期的中期。去年，它正處於週期中期。因此，從前景來看，我認為乙醇產業正處於一個週期的中期。但從我們的營運計劃來看，考慮到這些經濟因素，我們將實現最大產量。

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。

Jason Gabelman, Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼，考恩。

Yeah, morning, thanks for taking my questions. The first one is related to natural gas dynamics, and it's a two-parter. In the US, you see natural gas prices move higher, impacting your operating expense. And I wonder if you're doing anything on the ground to mitigate that expense?

是的，早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。第一個與天然氣動力學有關，它分為兩個部分。在美國，您會看到天然氣價格上漲，從而影響您的營運費用。我想知道您是否正在採取任何實際措施來減少這筆開支？

And then conversely, in Europe, given you have an asset there as natural gas prices are moving lower, are you seeing the ability for that region to run its secondary units at higher rates and add more product to the market? Thanks.

然後相反，在歐洲，鑑於你們在那裡擁有資產，而且天然氣價格正在走低，你是否認為該地區有能力以更高的速度運行其二級單位並向市場增加更多產品？謝謝。

Jason, it's Greg. So I'll start in the US. You've seen a lot of volatility in the natural gas market, and it's been regional as well. A lot of that has been both expectations and actual performance of some of these LNG facilities. You've had a fair amount of transportation and logistics disruptions as well. So with that volatility, we've been a bit cautious to try to go out and do anything on a forward basis. And it's not to buying gas on a kind of ratable as-needed basis.

傑森，我是格雷格。所以我將從美國開始。你已經看到天然氣市場出現了很多波動，而且這種波動也是區域性的。其中很大一部分是人們對這些液化天然氣設施的期望和實際表現。你們也遭遇了相當多的運輸和物流中斷。因此，面對這種波動，我們在嘗試採取前瞻性行動時會顯得更加謹慎。這並不是按照按需分配的方式購買天然氣。

And the big question there still remains to be the LNG market and how that materializes in terms of actual liftings out of the US. Again, as you know, some of that depends on where that LNG is pointed and some of the economic factors that will drive that.

而最大的問題仍然是液化天然氣市場，以及它如何反映在美國的實際提氣量上。再說一次，如你所知，這在一定程度上取決於液化天然氣的指向位置以及推動這一進程的一些經濟因素。

In Pembroke, the only thing I can really say about that is where natural gas prices are currently for our operation, they aren't causing us to really change our mode of operation. They're in a place where we're going to run the way we typically run, maximizing throughput, maximizing production.

在彭布羅克，我唯一能說的是，目前的天然氣價格對於我們的營運來說，並沒有導致我們真正改變營運模式。它們處於我們將按照通常方式運行的位置，最大限度地提高吞吐量，最大限度地提高產量。

The only thing we ever look at there is maybe shifting fuel sources between natural gas in different NGLs that might prove to be a bit more economic. But that's a fairly typical optimization we do on a regular basis.

我們唯一考慮的可能是在不同的 NGL 天然氣之間轉換燃料來源，可能會更經濟一些。但這是我們定期進行的相當典型的優化。

Okay, I think most of my other questions were answered. So I'll leave it there. Thanks.

好的，我想我的大多數其他問題都得到了答案。所以我就把它留在那裡了。謝謝。

Jean Salisbury, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Salisbury。

Hi, good morning. Can you talk about what you expect for the one-time overall cash impact that you expect from closing Benicia between the land values, selling down inventory, and then just closure cash costs? And is Benicia a good proxy for the exit cost of a US refinery?

嗨，早安。您能否談談關閉貝尼西亞專案對土地價值、庫存出售以及關閉現金成本之間一次性整體現金影響的預期？貝尼西亞是否可以作為美國煉油廠退出成本的良好代表？

Yeah. So you might have seen in our 8-K, we disclosed what the ARO for the asset was going to be. So I mean I think that's the number.

是的。因此，您可能已經在我們的 8-K 中看到，我們披露了該資產的 ARO 是什麼。所以我的意思是我認為這就是這個數字。

Well, I guess it also have the liquidation of inventory right, as a part of the --

嗯，我想它也有清倉權，作為--

Yeah, from a cash flow standpoint.

是的，從現金流的角度來看。

Yeah, this is Jason. You'll get the cash for the inventory fairly quickly. The other cash will be expended that's represented by the ARO for a series of years, several years after the closure as we undertake clean up and dismantling and things like that and any realization of real estate related proceeds is several years out too.

是的，這是傑森。您將很快收到庫存現金。ARO 所代表的其他現金將在關閉後的幾年內消耗，因為我們將進行清理和拆除等工作，並且任何與房地產相關的收益的實現也需要幾年的時間。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, LPG tariffs on US LPG have kind of gone into effect in China. Do you see this materially impacting feedstock costs or just NAFTA or light ends pricing if it continues?

好的。隨後，中國對美國液化石油氣徵收的關稅也已生效。如果這種情況持續下去，您是否認為會對原料成本產生重大影響，或僅對北美自由貿易協定或輕質餾分定價產生重大影響？

Gene, this is Greg. I'll start. Gary may have something to add. At this point, we haven't seen it have much disruption on overall trade flows and market prices here in the US. So I think it will remain to be seen whether that starts to develop as the year progresses.

吉恩，這是格雷格。我先開始。加里可能還有一些要補充的。目前，我們還沒有發現它對美國整體貿易流量和市場價格造成太大影響。因此我認為，隨著時間的推移，這種情況是否會開始發展還有待觀察。

Yes. I think the combination of what's happening in China and Venezuela, naphtha is still flowing to Venezuela as diluent, but that will kind of come to an end at the end of May. At that time frame, it's likely that you could see naphtha get a little weaker.

是的。我認為，考慮到中國和委內瑞拉的情況，石腦油仍作為稀釋劑流入委內瑞拉，但這種情況將在 5 月底結束。在那個時間段內，你可能會看到石腦油價格稍微走弱。

Okay, great. That's all for me. Thank you.

好的，太好了。對我來說就這些了。謝謝。

Matthew Blair, Tudor Pickering Holt & Company.

馬修·布萊爾，都鐸·皮克林霍爾特公司。

Great, thanks and good morning. You provided some helpful commentary on the biofuel regulatory front in regards to things like RVO and the California low carbon fuel standard. I wanted to get your take, do you see momentum building for nationwide E15? And if so, could you talk about how that might affect your business?

太好了，謝謝，早安。您對生物燃料監管方面（例如 RVO 和加州低碳燃料標準）提供了一些有益的評論。我想知道您的看法，您是否認為全國範圍內的 E15 勢頭正在增強？如果是的話，您能談談這會對您的業務產生什麼影響嗎？

Yeah, this is Eric. I think there's a little bit of a mess in the Midwest right now, where the seven governors asked for E15 without the 1-pound waiver. And then realized within short -- within weeks of converting to summer grade that, that creates a lot of complexity in terms of the supply into the Midwest, that they then asked the EPA to grant a 20-day emergency waiver again for the 1-pound waiver for both E10 and E15.

是的，這是埃里克。我認為中西部現在有點混亂，七位州長要求 15 歐元，但沒有減免 1 英鎊。然後在短時間內——在轉換為夏季級的幾週內——他們意識到，這給中西部的供應帶來了很大的複雜性，然後他們要求環保局再次給予 20 天的緊急豁免，對 E1​​0 和 E15 的 1 磅豁免。

So I don't think you see a lot of positive support for that supply chain completely shifting to E15. There's still a lot of complexity at the retail level, at the consumer level willingness switch. So now that all being said, in a lot of those Midwest states we're watching, we do see some incremental E15.

因此，我認為你不會看到對供應鏈完全轉向 E15 的太多積極支持。零售層面、消費者層面的意願轉變仍存在許多複雜性。所以現在總而言之，在我們關注的許多中西部州，我們確實看到了一些增量的 E15。

It's not substantial growth in those sales, but we are seeing some incremental sales of E15. I think nationally, we're still far away from that becoming a reality or even a proposal. The governors did ask for that, but I doubt EPA is going to do that from a blanket standpoint for the entire US.

這些銷售額並沒有大幅成長，但我們看到 E15 的銷售額增加。我認為從全國範圍來看，我們距離將其變為現實甚至只是一個提議還有很長的路要走。州長們確實提出了這樣的要求，但我懷疑環保署是否會從整個美國的角度來這麼做。

The other thing I would say just from a fundamental standpoint, the US ethanol production is slightly long into an export that we mostly perform. But there is not enough ethanol in the US to go to E15. I think we've done the math, and you can get to a max of about E12.

我想說的另一件事是從基本面的角度出發，美國的乙醇生產與我們主要進行的出口相比略有延長。但美國沒有足夠的乙醇來達到 E15 的標準。我想我們已經計算過了，你可以得到最大值大約 E12。

So if there was some kind of mandate to go to E15, you would be short in the US and it would require probably in the short term, some import of ethanol from likely Brazil. So you look at all of that from a policy standpoint, I think you'll see -- you'll continue to see the Midwest states push for E15. They are getting some traction there, but that commercial growth is very slow. And I don't see that going beyond the Midwest states anytime soon.

因此，如果有某種強制要求轉向 E15，那麼美國就會出現短缺，並且可能在短期內需要從巴西進口一些乙醇。因此，從政策角度來看所有這些，我想你會看到——你將繼續看到中西部各州推動 E15。他們在那裡取得了一些進展，但商業成長非常緩慢。我不認為這種現象會很快蔓延到中西部各州以外。

Great. And then on the refining side, do you think it's reasonable to assume a quarter-over-quarter improvement in capture for the second quarter as you roll off the maintenance from the first quarter? Or are there other considerations that we should take into account?

偉大的。那麼在煉油方面，隨著第一季維護工作的結束，您是否認為可以合理地假設第二季的捕獲量將比上一季有所改善？或者我們還應該考慮其他因素嗎？

This is Greg. You know how this goes. There's lots of factors that will have an impact on capture a lot of the secondary products, market structure on the crude side. So it's hard to say where things go. A couple of things that tend to be fairly structural on a seasonal basis as we pull butane out of the gasoline pool as we move into the summer, that tends to be -- work against us on capture. So that's one thing to watch. And then other than that, it's hard to say this early in the quarter, where things would go.

這是格雷格。你知道這是怎麼回事。有許多因素會對大量二次產品的取得和原油市場結構產生影響。所以很難說事情會如何發展。隨著進入夏季，我們從汽油池中抽出丁烷，有幾件事在季節性上往往具有相當的結構性，這往往會對我們的捕獲產生不利影響。這是值得關注的一件事。除此之外，在本季初期很難預測事情會如何發展。

As far as maintenance goes to the extent that our outages have a larger impact on throughput, probably says they'll have less of an impact on capture rates. So we'll have lower throughput but you'll see the margin will move kind of in concert with that.

就維護而言，我們的停機對吞吐量的影響較大，但可能對捕獲率的影響較小。因此我們的吞吐量會降低，但你會看到利潤率也會跟著改變。

Great. Thanks for your comments.

偉大的。感謝您的評論。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the floor back over to Homer Bhullar for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。現在我想將發言權交還給 Homer Bhullar 進行最後發言。

Thanks, Daryl, and appreciate everyone joining us today. Obviously, feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions. Thanks, everyone, and have a great day.

謝謝，達裡爾，謝謝大家今天加入我們。顯然，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝大家，祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。享受剩餘的一天。