瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Valero Energy Corp.'s second-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corp. 的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the conference over to Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone. And welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早安。歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的執行長兼總裁萊恩·里格斯 (Lane Riggs)； Jason Fraser，我們的執行副總裁兼財務長；加里‧西蒙斯 (Gary Simmons)，我們的執行副總裁兼營運長；以及瓦萊羅高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also, attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到收益報告並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站 Investorvalero.com 上找到一份副本。此外，收益發布隨附的表格提供了有關我們業務部門的額外財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的調節和揭露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請隨時在電話會議後聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

現在我想請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，它表示，新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的期望或預測的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的因素。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉給萊恩，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Homer. And good morning, everyone. We are happy to report strong financial results for the second quarter. Our refineries operated well and achieved 94% throughput capacity utilization. We saw continued strength in our US wholesale system with sales exceeding 1 million barrels per day in the second quarter. We also saw a good contribution from our renewable diesel and ethanol segments.

謝謝你，荷馬。大家早安。我們很高興報告第二季強勁的財務表現。我們的煉油廠運作良好，產能利用率達94%。我們看到美國批發系統持續強勁，第二季銷售超過 100 萬桶/日。我們也看到再生柴油和乙醇部門的良好貢獻。

On the strategic front, our growth projects are progressing on schedule. The Diamond Green Diesel sustainable aviation fuel project in Port Arthur is still expected to be operational in the fourth quarter, at which point, DGD is expected to become one of the largest manufacturers of SAF in the world. And we continue to pursue short-cycle, high-return optimization projects around our existing refining assets.

在策略方面，我們的成長項目正在按計劃進行。位於亞瑟港的Diamond Green Diesel永續航空燃油計畫預計仍將在第四季度投入運營，屆時DGD有望成為全球最大的SAF製造商之一。我們繼續圍繞現有煉油資產尋求短週期、高回報的優化項目。

On the financial side, we remain committed to shareholder returns with a year-to-date payout of 80%. And last week, we announced a quarterly cash dividend on our common stock of $1.07 per share. Looking ahead, limited announced capacity additions beyond 2025 should support long-term refining fundamentals.

在財務方面，我們仍致力於股東回報，今年迄今的股利支付率為 80%。上週，我們宣布普通股季度現金股利為每股 1.07 美元。展望未來，2025 年後宣布的有限產能增加應該會支持長期煉油基本面。

In closing, our team's simple strategy of pursuing excellence in operation, return-driven discipline on growth projects and a demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns has underpinned our success and positions us well for the future.

最後，我們團隊追求卓越營運的簡單策略、以回報為導向的成長專案紀律以及對股東回報的明確承諾支撐了我們的成功，並為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

那麼，荷馬，我會把電話轉給你。

Thanks, Lane. For the second quarter of 2024, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $880 million or $2.71 per share compared to $1.9 billion or $5.40 per share for the second quarter of 2023.

謝謝，萊恩。 2024 年第二季度，瓦萊羅股東應佔淨利為 8.8 億美元，即每股 2.71 美元，而 2023 年第二季為 19 億美元，即每股 5.40 美元。

The refining segment reported $1.2 billion of operating income for the second quarter of 2024 compared to $2.4 billion for the second quarter of 2023. Refining throughput volumes in the second quarter of 2024 averaged 3 million barrels per day. Throughput capacity utilization was 94% in the second quarter of 2024. Refining cash operating expenses were $4.45 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024.

煉油部門報告稱，2024 年第二季的營業收入為 12 億美元，而 2023 年第二季為 24 億美元。 2024 年第二季的產能利用率為 94%。

Renewable diesel segment operating income was $112 million for the second quarter of 2024 compared to $440 million for the second quarter of 2023. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 3.5 million gallons per day in the second quarter of 2024, which was 908,000 gallons per day lower than the second quarter of 2023. Operating income was lower than the second quarter of 2023 due to lower sales volumes resulting from planned maintenance activities and lower renewable diesel margin in the second quarter of 2024.

2024 年第二季再生柴油部門營業收入為1.12 億美元，而2023 年第二季為4.4 億美元。 908,000 加侖。

The ethanol segment reported $105 million of operating income for the second quarter of 2024 compared to $127 million for the second quarter of 2023. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.5 million gallons per day in the second quarter of 2024, which was 31,000 gallons per day higher than the second quarter of 2023.

乙醇部門報告2024 年第二季營業收入為1.05 億美元，而2023 年第二季為1.27 億美元。 31,000 加侖。

For the second quarter of 2024, G&A expenses were $203 million, net interest expense was $140 million, depreciation and amortization expense was $696 million, and income tax expense was $277 million. The effective tax rate was 23%.

2024 年第二季度，一般管理費用為 2.03 億美元，淨利息費用為 1.4 億美元，折舊和攤提費用為 6.96 億美元，所得稅費用為 2.77 億美元。有效稅率為23%。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.5 billion in the second quarter of 2024. Included in this amount was a $789 million favorable change in working capital and $83 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD. Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.6 billion in the second quarter of 2024.

2024 年第二季度，經營活動提供的淨現金為 25 億美元。 。排除這些項目，2024 年第二季經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為 16 億美元。

Regarding investing activities, we made $420 million of capital investments in the second quarter of 2024, of which $329 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts, and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business. Excluding capital investments attributable to other joint venture member share of DGD and other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $360 million in the second quarter of 2024.

在投資活動方面，我們在 2024 年第二季進行了 4.2 億美元的資本投資，其中 3.29 億美元用於維持業務，包括週轉、催化劑和監管合規成本，餘額用於發展業務。不包括 DGD 其他合資成員份額和其他可變利益實體的資本投資，2024 年第二季瓦萊羅的資本投資為 3.6 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $1.4 billion to our stockholders in the second quarter of 2024, of which $347 million was paid as dividends and $1 billion was for the purchase of approximately 6.6 million shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 87% for the quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned $2.8 billion to our stockholders in the form of dividends and buybacks, resulting in a payout ratio of 80%, well above our minimum commitment of 40% to 50%.

轉向融資活動。 2024 年第二季度，我們向股東返還 14 億美元，其中 3.47 億美元作為股息支付，10 億美元用於購買約 660 萬股普通股，該季度的派息率為 87%。今年迄今為止，我們已以股息和回購的形式向股東返還 28 億美元，股息率為 80%，遠高於我們 40% 至 50% 的最低承諾。

With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $8.4 billion of total debt, $2.4 billion of finance lease obligations, and $5.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents. The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 16% as of June 30, 2024. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.3 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

就我們的資產負債表而言，本季末我們的債務總額為 84 億美元，融資租賃債務為 24 億美元，現金和現金等價物為 52 億美元。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的負債與資本比率為 16%。

Turning to guidance. We still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2024 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance, and joint venture investments. About $1.6 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth with approximately half of the growth capital towards our low carbon fuels businesses and half towards refining projects.

轉向指導。我們仍預期 2024 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑、監管合規和合資企業投資的支出。其中約 16 億美元分配用於維持業務和平衡成長，其中約一半的成長資本用於我們的低碳燃料業務，一半用於煉油項目。

For modeling our third quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.77 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 405,000 barrels to 425,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 235,000 barrels to 255,000 barrels per day and North Atlantic at 390,000 barrels to 410,000 barrels per day. We expect refining cash operating expenses in the third quarter to be approximately $4.70 per barrel.

為了對我們第三季的營運進行建模，我們預計煉油吞吐量將落在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸為每天 177 萬桶至 182 萬桶；中大陸產量為每天 405,000 桶至 425,000 桶；西海岸為每天 235,000 桶至 255,000 桶，北大西洋為每天 390,000 桶至 410,000 桶。我們預計第三季煉油現金營運支出約為每桶 4.70 美元。

With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2024. Operating expenses in 2024 should be $0.45 per gallon, which includes $0.18 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

對於再生柴油領域，我們預計 2024 年銷售量約為 12 億加侖。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.6 million gallons per day in the third quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.40 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們的乙醇部門預計第三季每天生產 460 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.40 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。

For the third quarter, net interest expense should be about $140 million and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $690 million. For 2024, we expect G&A expenses to be approximately $975 million.

第三季的淨利息支出應約為 1.4 億美元，總折舊和攤提費用應約為 6.9 億美元。 2024 年，我們預計一般管理費用約為 9.75 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. Before we open the call to questions, please limit each turn in the Q&A to two questions to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

我們的開場白就到此結束。在我們開始提問之前，請將問答的每一輪限制為兩個問題，以確保其他來電者有時間提問。

(Operator Instructions) John Royall, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）John Royall，摩根大通。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is on the refining macro side and more specifically, your views on supply and demand. The US system ran pretty hard through 2Q. We built some inventories on both the gasoline and the diesel side. What are you seeing on the demand side in both the US and globally? And how do you view the overall supply/demand balance today?

你好。早安.感謝您提出我的問題。所以我的第一個問題是關於煉油宏觀方面，更具體地說，是您對供需的看法。美國系統在第二季度運作得相當艱難。我們在汽油和柴油方面都建立了一些庫存。您對美國和全球的需求方面有何看法？您如何看待當前的整體供需平衡？

Hey, John. This is Gary. I think in the US, for the most part, the economy has been fairly resilient and the market fundamentals look pretty similar to what we've been looking at the past couple of years. If you look at our wholesale data, four-week average, our gasoline sales are up about 0.5%. There tends to be a lot of noise in the weekly DOE data. But year-to-date, DOE data would suggest a slight decline in gasoline demand, less than 1%. You look at vehicles mile travel, they're up 1.4%, which would again indicate a slight increase in demand for gasoline. I guess the way we're looking at it is, we'd say, year-over-year, gasoline demand in the US is flat.

嘿，約翰。這是加里。我認為在美國，在很大程度上，經濟相當有彈性，市場基本面看起來與我們過去幾年的情況非常相似。如果你看我們的批發數據，四個星期的平均值，我們的汽油銷量成長了約 0.5%。美國能源部每週數據中往往存在著許多噪音。但今年迄今為止，美國能源部的數據顯示汽油需求略有下降，降幅不到 1%。你看看車輛行駛里程，它們增加了 1.4%，這再次表明汽油需求略有增加。我想我們看待這個問題的方式是，美國的汽油需求比去年同期持平。

On the diesel side, we're actually showing a pretty good step change in our system on diesel sales, four-week average diesel sales in our system are up 10%. Again, don't necessarily believe that's representative of the broader markets. If you look at year-to-date diesel sales and the daily data, it would suggest a decline in diesel demand about 100,000 barrels a day.

在柴油方面，我們的系統中的柴油銷售實際上顯示出相當好的階躍變化，我們系統中的 4 週平均柴油銷售增長了 10%。再次強調，不一定相信這代表了更廣泛的市場。如果您查看今年迄今為止的柴油銷售和每日數據，您會發現柴油需求每天下降約 100,000 桶。

Directionally, I think that makes sense to us with a little weaker freight numbers early in the year. You didn't really have any help from weather, a little less demand from the upstream sector. However, a lot of that has been offset with the increase in jet demand. So about half of that offset with an increase in jet demand. So maybe distillate demand down slightly.

從方向上看，我認為這對我們來說是有意義的，因為今年年初貨運量略有下降。天氣並沒有為你帶來任何幫助，上游產業的需求也少了一些。然而，其中很大一部分已被噴射機需求的增加所抵消。因此，大約一半的損失被噴射機需求的增加所抵消。因此，餾分油需求可能會略有下降。

So in the US, we would say gasoline demand flat year-over-year, distillate demand down slightly. I think the bigger impact has really been for the overall North Atlantic Basin. Certainly, in the North Atlantic Basin, we saw regions with slowing economic activity that negatively impacted, especially demand for diesel.

因此，在美國，我們會說汽油需求與去年同期持平，餾分油需求略有下降。我認為更大的影響確實是針對整個北大西洋盆地。當然，在北大西洋盆地，我們看到經濟活動放緩的地區受到了負面影響，特別是對柴油的需求。

And then it looks like some of the new capacity that came on in the Middle East really never made it to nameplate capacity until early this year. So we saw a bit of a step change in refining runs in the Middle East with a lot of that product making its way into Europe. So some of that early in the year was masked with some of the drone strikes on Russian refining capacity. But the combination of higher refinery runs in the Middle East, a little sluggish economic activity in parts of the Atlantic Basin allowed restocking of inventories in the region.

看起來中東地區的一些新產能直到今年年初才真正達到銘牌產能。因此，我們看到中東煉油業務發生了一些重大變化，許多產品進入了歐洲。因此，今年稍早的一些情況被無人機對俄羅斯煉油能力的攻擊所掩蓋。但中東煉油廠開工率較高，大西洋盆地部分地區經濟活動略顯疲軟，使得該地區的庫存得以補充。

So with that, we've obviously seen refinery margins weaken some. We haven't had any type of major weather event take down refining capacity like we've seen the past few years. Of course, we're right in the middle of hurricane season so you still have that potential. So with refinery runs up in the North Atlantic Basin lined with a little softer diesel demand, you've seen that restocking. We've gone from well below the five-year average total light product inventory to trending more to the bottom end of the five-year average range. As inventories tend to trend towards the five-year average, you would expect to see a margin environment closer to a mid-cycle type margin environment. That's kind of what we're seeing.

因此，我們顯然看到煉油廠的利潤率下降。我們沒有像過去幾年那樣發生過任何類型的重大天氣事件導致煉油能力下降。當然，我們正處於颶風季節中期，因此您仍然具有這種潛力。因此，隨著北大西洋盆地煉油廠的開工，以及柴油需求的疲軟，您已經看到了補充庫存的情況。我們的輕質產品庫存總量已從遠低於五年平均的趨勢進一步降至五年平均範圍的底部。由於庫存趨於接近五年平均水平，您預計會看到更接近中期週期類型的利潤環境。這就是我們所看到的。

It does feel as the market has found a bit of a bottom, consultant data indicates at least earlier this week, hydroskimming margins in Europe and the Far East were negative, cracking margins in the Far East negative. And if that's correct, and we found the bottom, it is what historically been a mid-cycle type refining margin environment, that's -- it's actually pretty bullish refining going forward.

顧問數據顯示，至少在本週早些時候，歐洲和遠東的加氫撇油利潤為負，遠東的裂解利潤為負，這確實讓人感覺市場已經觸底。如果這是正確的，並且我們發現了底部，那麼這就是歷史中期中期類型的煉油利潤環境，這實際上是非常樂觀的煉油前景。

As we move into the third quarter, we'll see -- start to see a little lower utilization, mainly turnarounds affecting refinery utilization. Most of the consultant data actually shows year-over-year demand growth was more weighted to the back end of the year. So hopefully, we see a little bit better demand. Some of the freight indices are starting to turn. Market in Europe looks actually pretty strong, which has closed the arb to send gasoline from Europe to the United States, open the arb to send US Gulf Coast diesel to Europe.

當我們進入第三季時，我們將看到利用率開始略有下降，主要是影響煉油廠利用率的周轉。大多數顧問數據實際上顯示，年比需求成長更集中在年底。希望我們能看到更好的需求。一些貨運指數開始出現轉向。歐洲市場看起來實際上相當強勁，已經關閉了從歐洲向美國發送汽油的套利，開放了從美國墨西哥灣沿岸向歐洲發送柴油的套利。

So I think you'll see some tightening of supply-demand balances in the near term. And then longer term, we see very little new refining capacity additions with continued demand growth, which should be bullish margins in the long term.

因此，我認為短期內供需平衡會有所收緊。從長遠來看，隨著需求的持續成長，我們看到新增的煉油產能很少，從長遠來看，這應該是看漲的利潤率。

Great. Thanks, Gary. That's very thorough. And then my second question is on capital returns. You had another very strong quarter. In this quarter, I think you're above 80% as CFO. How do you think about the cadence on the buyback going forward from here? And any thought on leading into the balance sheet for capital returns?

偉大的。謝謝，加里。這非常徹底。我的第二個問題是關於資本回報。你們又度過了一個非常強勁的季度。在本季度，我認為您擔任財務長的成功率超過 80%。您如何看待今後回購的節奏？對於將資本回報納入資產負債表有什麼想法嗎？

John, this is Jason. I might just ask Homer to answer that one for you.

約翰，這是傑森。我可能只是請荷馬為你回答這個問題。

Sure. So John, we haven't really had to lean into the balance sheet for shareholder returns. I mean, in fact, if you look back to 2020, we've been able to fund all of our uses of cash, including over $6.5 billion of capital investments. We've paid down over $4 billion of debt and over $17 billion of shareholder returns over that period all through cash flow from operations. In fact, we've actually built cash since 2020.

當然。所以約翰，我們其實不必依賴資產負債表來獲得股東回報。我的意思是，事實上，如果你回顧 2020 年，我們已經能夠為我們所有的現金使用提供資金，包括超過 65 億美元的資本投資。在此期間，我們透過營運現金流償還了超過 40 億美元的債務，並為股東帶來了超過 170 億美元的回報。事實上，自 2020 年以來，我們實際上已經累積了現金。

So I think consistent with what we've been guiding to, given the strength in our balance sheet and our current cash position, we continue to lean into buybacks with a payout ratio at 87% for the second quarter and 80% year-to-date. Again, all funded within cash flow despite a lower margin environment. So I think looking forward in periods where the balance sheet is strong as it is now, we've got sustaining CapEx, the dividend and strategic CapEx covered, you can reasonably think about 40% to 50% as a floor and continue to expect any excess free cash flow go towards share buybacks.

因此，我認為，考慮到我們資產負債表的實力和當前的現金狀況，我們將繼續傾向於回購，第二季的支付率為 87%，年比為 80%。同樣，儘管利潤率較低，但所有資金均來自現金流。因此，我認為，展望未來，在資產負債表像現在這樣強勁的時期，我們已經維持了資本支出、股息和戰略資本支出，您可以合理地認為 40% 到 50% 作為下限，並繼續預期任何多餘的自由現金流用於股票回購。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thank you for having me on. And Gary, I appreciate all your comments about the macro, but I'm afraid I'm going to ask another one if you don't mind. Everything you've said makes an enormous amount of sense except for the fact that it seems that globally on a net basis, we're now back to a net surplus in terms of refinery additions compared to right before COVID. And obviously, Dangote is part of that, but we've had Whiting come back online and utilization it seems it's now running pretty well.

謝謝你邀請我參加。加里，我感謝您對宏的所有評論，但如果您不介意的話，我恐怕會問另一位。你所說的一切都很有道理，除了這樣一個事實：與新冠疫情之前相比，全球範圍內煉油廠新增數量似乎已回到淨盈餘。顯然，Dangote 是其中的一部分，但我們已經讓 Whiting 重新上線並使用它，看起來它現在運行得很好。

So I'm just curious as to how you think that cleans up. Do we need another turnaround capital event, like a turnaround cycle to see some of those closures? Or do you see it differently?

所以我只是好奇你認為如何清理。我們是否需要另一個資本週轉事件（例如周轉週期）來看到其中一些關閉？還是你有不同的看法？

No, I think we see it the same way. I think you'll see some improvement in economic activity, which will improve diesel demand. And then for us, you've had the impact of Dangote and we're starting to be absorbed in the market. Offsetting that, there are 600,000 barrels a day of announced refinery closures. We're not sure when the timing of those will actually occur. But as you start to see more refinery rationalization occur, that will again tighten up the supply-demand balances longer term.

不，我想我們的看法是一樣的。我認為您會看到經濟活動有所改善，這將改善柴油需求。然後對我們來說，你已經受到了 Dangote 的影響，我們開始融入市場。與之抵消的是，每天有 60 萬桶煉油廠宣布關閉。我們不確定這些具體發生的時間。但當你開始看到更多的煉油廠合理化發生時，長期來看，這將再次收緊供需平衡。

Okay. Thank you. My follow-up is kind of related to that because, I mean, you guys are -- there's no question you guys are and will probably continue to be the cost leader in terms of your system, best-in-class in the US for sure. The issue we're trying to figure out is where the vulnerabilities are across the US in terms of the marginal refinery.

好的。謝謝。我的後續行動與此相關，因為，我的意思是，毫無疑問，你們現在並且可能會繼續成為你們系統的成本領先者，在美國是一流的當然。我們試圖找出的問題是，就邊緣煉油廠而言，美國各地的漏洞在哪裡。

And I guess for you guys, we're curious what's going on in the West Coast because just last week, we had the lowest margin since COVID on the West Coast and Venetia is obviously out there. We thought it was going to do better because of TMX. So can you maybe help us understand what is the role of Venetia in the portfolio? And what do you see in the West Coast dynamics currently?

我想對你們來說，我們很好奇西海岸發生了什麼，因為就在上週，我們的利潤率是自西海岸新冠疫情以來最低的，而威尼斯顯然在那裡。我們認為由於 TMX，它會做得更好。那麼您能否幫助我們了解 Venetia 在投資組合中的作用？您對目前西海岸的動態有何看法？

Doug, this is Lane. I'll start and then I'll let Gary follow up on the TMX question. When you think about our portfolio, the West Coast clearly is the highest cost region we operate in. It's just -- just by virtue of everything that goes on in the West Coast, it's the most expensive to operate with. And historically, the way it works there is you have marginal economics and then the balances would be such that you'd have an allergen, you would sort of experience a period of higher margins, and then it would go back.

道格，這是萊恩。我先開始，然後請 Gary 跟進 TMX 問題。當你考慮我們的投資組合時，西海岸顯然是我們營運成本最高的地區。從歷史上看，它的運作方式是，你有邊際經濟，然後平衡就會導致你有過敏原，你會經歷一段較高利潤的時期，然後它就會回歸。

So it's really almost a call option on West Coast spreads. And it is a harder place to operate, it is a more expensive place to operate. And so when you look across the US, I mean, I would expect that's probably one of the places that you would ultimately see some refinery closures if this shakes out.

所以這實際上幾乎是西海岸利差的看漲期權。這是一個更難運作的地方，也是一個營運成本更高的地方。因此，當你環顧美國時，我的意思是，我預計如果這種情況發生，這可能是你最終會看到一些煉油廠關閉的地方之一。

And then I'll let Gary.

然後我會讓加里。

Yeah. The only thing I'd add to that is we did have the view that with some of the refinery conversions to make renewable fuels that you would see, especially gasoline pretty tight. But if you look from April to the end of June, imports, gasoline imports into the West Coast were up 70,000 barrels a day. And I think that, combined with a little softer demand is why you're seeing that margin environment on the West Coast that we're seeing today.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，我們確實認為，隨著一些煉油廠的改造，生產再生燃料，尤其是汽油，供應非常緊張。但如果你看一下從 4 月到 6 月底的進口情況，西海岸的汽油進口量每天增加了 7 萬桶。我認為，再加上需求稍微疲軟，這就是為什麼你會在西海岸看到我們今天看到的利潤環境。

As far as TMX, TMX started up beginning of May. They didn't load the first cargo out until the end of May. We didn't load our first cargo out until June. So really, any impact you're going to see from TMX wasn't reflected in our second quarter results. You won't start to see that until third quarter.

就TMX而言，TMX於5月初啟動。直到五月底，他們才裝載了第一批貨物。直到六月我們才裝載了第一批貨物。事實上，您從 TMX 中看到的任何影響都沒有反映在我們第二季的業績中。直到第三季你才會開始看到這一點。

All right, guys. Thanks so much for the answers.

好吧，夥計們。非常感謝您的回答。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

羅傑·里德，富國銀行。

Yeah. Good morning, everybody. Maybe take a slightly different direction here, policy-wise. At the end of June, the Supreme Court took out Chevron deference and there's a lot of ways to interpret that and some of the other things going on politically with the election. But I was just curious if you had any thoughts about -- on the policy front on that, I guess, you call it judicial front, how that might affect any parts as we think about some of the CAFE standard stuff and then has been mentioned the challenges in getting permits to do things on the expansion side?

是的。大家早安。也許在政策上採取稍微不同的方向。六月底，最高法院取消了雪佛龍的尊重，有很多方法可以解釋這一點以及選舉中政治上發生的一些其他事情。但我只是好奇你是否有任何想法——在政策方面，我想，你稱之為司法方面，當我們考慮一些 CAFE 標準的東西時，這可能會如何影響任何部分，然後被提到獲得擴張方面的許可有何挑戰？

This is Rich Walsh. And so, hey, you never get a great legal question like this on our earnings call. So this is exciting. (laughter) And so I'm going to try not to get too wonky here, but I just -- with Chevron deference, right, the -- under that program, the courts were required to give agencies complete deference as to their interpretations to their own authority. And so it made it really difficult for the judiciary to kind of rein in the administrative state. And so what you see the Supreme Court doing is they really basically restored a meaningful judicial review over this.

這是里奇·沃爾什。所以，嘿，在我們的財報電話會議上，你永遠不會遇到像這樣的重要法律問題。所以這很令人興奮。 （笑聲）所以我會盡量不要在這裡變得太古怪，但我只是 - 雪佛龍的尊重，對， - 根據該計劃，法院必須完全尊重各機構對他們的解釋他們自己的權威。因此，司法部門很難對行政國家進行控制。所以你看到最高法院所做的是他們基本上恢復了對此有意義的司法審查。

So that now judges are required to use their best reading of the statute. And while the agencies have historically viewed that they're entitled to this deference and the agencies generally believe they've got the right reading of the statute. I think everybody is going to kind of come to the realization that the range of interpretation that's going to be acceptable is not going to be as wide. And you're clearly going to have judges who are empowered now to kind of look at the statute and not just defer to the agency on it.

因此，現在法官必須對法規進行最佳解讀。儘管這些機構歷來認為他們有權獲得這種尊重，而這些機構普遍認為他們對法規的解讀是正確的。我認為每個人都會意識到，可接受的解釋範圍不會那麼廣泛。顯然，法官現在將有權審查該法規，而不僅僅是服從該機構的規定。

So as a practical matter of how that works is I think you're going to see less agency overreach in terms of how they interpret it and you're certainly going to see less political swings in the agencies in terms of how they often shift back and forth depending on the administration. And then I think if you kind of pair that together with major questions doctrine and you're really looking at kind of trying to -- I think what the court is trying to do is put policy back in the hands of the legislator, back in the hands of Congress and not let it be really policy driven at the administrative level.

因此，作為其運作方式的一個實際問題，我認為您會看到機構在如何解釋它方面的過度擴張，並且您肯定會看到機構在如何經常向後轉移方面的政治波動較少等等取決於管理。然後我認為，如果你將其與重大問題原則結合起來，並且你真的在考慮某種嘗試 - 我認為法院正在嘗試做的就是將政策重新交到立法者手中，重新交到立法者手中國會的手中，而不是讓它真正由行政層面的政策驅動。

And so -- and just as a practical matter, we've seen that already happen. The Supreme Court sent back nine cases already asking the lower courts to review their decisions in light of not giving deference to the agency. So when you talk about our existing litigations, we really don't talk about the litigation specifically, but I would say you've seen some pretty extreme interpretations here, in particular, the administration taking the position that they, without congressional mandate can go in and mandate electrification of vehicles. That's hard to see how the courts give them deference on that question. And it's certainly hard to see how that's not already covered under the major questions doctrine in the West Virginia case. So I feel like I'm getting a little wonky here. So let me just kind of wrap that up with that thought.

因此，作為一個實際問題，我們已經看到這種情況已經發生。鑑於不尊重該機構，最高法院已發回九起案件，要求下級法院審查其決定。因此，當你談論我們現有的訴訟時，我們確實不會具體談論訴訟，但我想說你在這裡看到了一些相當極端的解釋，特別是政府採取的立場是，他們可以在沒有國會授權的情況下進行訴訟並強制要求車輛電氣化。很難看出法院如何在這個問題上尊重他們。當然，很難看出西維吉尼亞州案件中的重大問題原則已經涵蓋了這一點。所以我覺得我在這裡有點不穩定。所以讓我用這個想法來總結一下。

No. That's -- I appreciate that. And yeah, it is one of those types of topics. So the only follow-up we really had on that, and I think you kind of answered it is the timing to have impacts of this could be like, what the next 12 to 24 months? Or does it take longer?

不，那是——我很欣賞這一點。是的，這是此類主題之一。因此，我們對此真正進行的唯一後續行動，我認為您的回答是，產生影響的時機可能會是這樣，接下來的 12 到 24 個月會怎麼樣？還是需要更長的時間？

Well, there's already a California waiver case queued up in front of the Supreme Court on the SERP petition. Now it was -- the DC circuit dismissed that one based on a standing type issue, but they really were trying to avoid, I think, addressing the underlying question. So it will be -- there's a number of cases coming up. There's a CAFE case that's already been argued in front of the DC circuit that's specifically queued up. So I think these changes will happen quicker than people traditionally expect from the judiciary.

嗯，加州的豁免案件已經在最高法院就 SERP 請願書排隊了。現在是——直流電路基於常設類型問題而駁回了這個問題，但我認為他們確實試圖避免解決根本問題。所以將會出現——將會出現很多案例。有一個CAFE的案子，已經在專門排隊的DC電路前面爭論過了。因此，我認為這些變化將比人們傳統上對司法部門的預期發生得更快。

Sounds great. Thank you. I'll turn it back.

聽起來很棒。謝謝。我會把它轉回來。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks. Maybe one back on refining supply/demand. Clearly, part of the issue in the second quarter here has been supply-driven. The system has been running really, really well with high utilization rates. Are you seeing -- just curious if you look at the consumer, are you seeing run cuts across any parts of the globe that you can see have an impact on the supply side.

謝謝。也許會回到改善供給/需求的狀態。顯然，第二季的部分問題是由供應驅動的。該系統一直運作得非常非常好，利用率很高。你是否看到——只是好奇，如果你看看消費者，你是否看到全球任何地方的削減都對供應方面產生了影響。

And as you look at your third quarter guidance, it implies lower throughput versus 2Q, is that maintenance? Is there some commercial activity there? Just curious as you see kind of how you see dynamics on the supply side here in the third quarter as a possible tailwind for margins?

當您查看第三季的指導時，它意味著與第二季度相比吞吐量較低，這是維護嗎？那裡有商業活動嗎？只是好奇，您如何看待第三季供應方面的動態可能成為利潤率的推動力？

Hey, Ryan. This is Greg. I'll talk about our system. So you do see that our throughput guidance considers planned maintenance activity we have in the quarter. So particularly if you take a look at like the North Atlantic, you see that there. Otherwise, I would just say for our system, we're optimizing our refineries in light of these market conditions, just like we always do. So some of that might be reflected in the guidance as well. But you can definitely see where the planned maintenance activity is having an impact.

嘿，瑞安。這是格雷格。我會談我們的系統。因此，您確實看到我們的吞吐量指南考慮了我們本季規劃的維護活動。因此，特別是如果你觀察北大西洋，你會看到那裡。否則，我只想說，對於我們的系統，我們正在根據這些市場條件優化我們的煉油廠，就像我們一貫做的那樣。因此，其中一些內容也可能反映在指南中。但您絕對可以看到計劃的維護活動正在產生影響。

Thanks. And then maybe on a broader question. I mean, you've argued for generally tight global refining markets and probably higher for longer type of mid-cycle margins. Has anything from the 2024 margin environment that we've seen this year change this view? Or do you still view that kind of as consistent with the outlook going forward?

謝謝。然後也許是一個更廣泛的問題。我的意思是，您認為全球煉油市場普遍緊張，較長類型的中期利潤率可能會更高。我們今年看到的 2024 年利潤率環境是否改變了這個觀點？或者您仍然認為這與未來的前景一致嗎？

This is Lane. I think if you sort of listen to Gary's opening comments and you think about our -- what we have said is that we do believe going forward, you're going to have a higher margin environment. You're seeing -- we're seeing refinery make cuts what at least we would have historically thought was a mid-cycle and so that -- which is an interesting thing to say, well, there are refineries out there that are seeing marginal economics in the historically mid-cycle economic environment.

這是萊恩。我認為，如果你聽一下加里的開場白，然後想想我們所說的，我們確實相信未來，你將擁有更高的利潤率環境。你看到——我們看到煉油廠進行了減產，至少我們歷史上認為這是一個中期週期，所以——這是一件有趣的事情，嗯，有些煉油廠看到了邊際收益歷史上經濟週期中期的經濟環境。

And so that would tell you, we don't know where the lows are. You're telling let's indicate that the call on refining is because of that, there's some -- we are happy with better cutting in this space. So again, it just reinforces our view that you have a higher margin for our capital and higher mid-cycle going forward.

所以這會告訴你，我們不知道低點在哪裡。你告訴我們，讓我們表明，呼籲精煉是因為這個，有一些 - 我們很高興在這個領域得到更好的削減。因此，這再次強化了我們的觀點，即我們的資本利潤率更高，未來的中期週期也更高。

Okay. Thanks, Lane.

好的。謝謝，萊恩。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

馬納夫古普塔，瑞銀集團。

Good morning, guys. My first question is your outlook on the Gulf Coast heavy sour differential looks like OPEC will start adding volumes somewhere in the fourth quarter and then continue to do that in 2025. And then also there is a bigger refining asset in that area, which uses a lot of that crude, which will be hopefully closing down in early 2025. So your outlook -- medium-term outlook for the heavy sour differential on the Gulf Coast?

早安，夥計們。我的第一個問題是，您對墨西哥灣沿岸重酸差價的展望，看起來OPEC 將在第四季度的某個時候開始增加產量，然後在2025 年繼續這樣做。的煉油資產，它使用大量原油預計在 2025 年初關閉。

Manav, this is Gary. So I think in the short term, we've seen heavy sour differentials move a little wider. That was mainly a Mid-Continent refiner that's had a complete power outage that's decreased the demand for Canadian heavy. As we move through the third quarter, you'll see a turnaround activity in the Mid-Continent, especially also decreased demand for Canadian heavy, which is supportive of the differentials.

馬納夫，這是加里。因此，我認為短期內，我們已經看到嚴重的酸價差異擴大了一些。這主要是一家中洲煉油廠完全停電，導致加拿大重質原油的需求減少。當我們進入第三季時，您將看到中洲地區的活動好轉，尤其是對加拿大重質原油的需求也有所下降，這支撐了價差。

And then longer term, I think the two things you pointed towards, for meaningful, sustainable wider heavy sour differentials, you really need more OPEC production back on the market. We're unsure exactly when that occurs. But yes, our view has been late this year, early next year, you start to see more OPEC barrels on the market, which will create wider heavy sour differentials.

從長遠來看，我認為你指出的兩件事，為了有意義的、可持續的、更廣泛的重酸差，你真的需要更多的歐佩克產量回到市場。我們不確定這種情況發生的具體時間。但是，是的，我們的觀點是，今年年底、明年初，市場上將開始看到更多的歐佩克石油，這將造成更大的高硫價差。

The other thing I'd point to is even with where the differentials were in the second quarter, we saw a significant economic uplift by running heavy sour crudes in the second quarter even with where the differentials were.

我要指出的另一件事是，即使在第二季度存在差異的情況下，即使在存在差異的情況下，我們也透過在第二季度運行重質高硫原油看到了顯著的經濟成長。

Perfect. Sir, my follow-up here is, as you're approaching your completion on the SAF unit, are there any preliminary estimates we should think about how much of an uplift could this change going from RD to SAF provide to you guys?

完美的。先生，我的後續問題是，當您即將完成 SAF 單位的工作時，是否有任何初步估計，我們應該考慮從 RD 到 SAF 的這種變化可以為您帶來多大的提升？

Hey, Manav. This is Eric. We were not going to give out like specifics like that. I would say you can look at the various programs, the state programs, the federal tax credits around whether it's BTC or PTC and then the mandate in the EU and the UK all kind of give you an indicator of what that uplift will be. Argus has got a quote that you can look at.

嘿，馬納夫。這是埃里克。我們不會透露這樣的細節。我想說，您可以查看各種計劃、州計劃、聯邦稅收抵免（無論是 BTC 還是 PTC），然後歐盟和英國的強制規定都會為您提供有關提升程度的指標。阿格斯有一份報價，您可以查看。

What we would say is that there is a premium of SAF over RD, and it's all going to be give us a margin that will be stronger than RD. And our outlook is that we'll meet the economics of our projects. So all of that looks pretty positive.

我們想說的是，SAF 比 RD 有溢價，這一切都將為我們帶來比 RD 更強的利潤。我們的前景是我們將滿足專案的經濟效益。所以所有這些看起來都非常積極。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

特蕾莎·陳，巴克萊銀行。

Morning. I wanted to go back to one of Gary's comments earlier on demand across your footprint, the 10% year-over-year uptick on the diesel side, which is not representative of the broader market. Can you give some color on how you've been able to take market share what seems to be on a continued basis at this point?

早晨。我想回到加里早些時候關於整個足跡的需求的評論，柴油方面同比增長 10%，這並不代表更廣泛的市場。您能否詳細說明一下您是如何能夠持續佔據市場份額的？

Well, I guess I'd just say our wholesale team has done a great job first on growing our market share. And then some of that has also been due to some of the refinery rationalization that took place, especially during the COVID period. It's allowed us to grow our market share as well.

好吧，我想我只想說我們的批發團隊首先在增加市場份額方面做得很好。其中一部分也是由於煉油廠進行了一些合理化改造，特別是在新冠疫情期間。它也使我們能夠擴大市場份額。

Got it. And following up on the renewable fuel economics, Eric, can you provide an update on your outlook for the different subsidy prices over the near to medium term, especially with the election around the corner?

知道了。關於再生燃料經濟，艾瑞克，您能否提供您對中短期內不同補貼價格的最新展望，特別是在選舉即將到來的情況下？

Yeah, that's something everyone is trying to figure out and it's a really difficult dart to throw these days. I think one of the things we look at is -- the RIN market still looks oversupplied to us. So as we kind of get into the back end of '24, it looks like the RIN market is long, the California LCFS market will remain long and therefore, we think with prices starting to increase, we see compression in RD margins in the back half of '24.

是的，這是每個人都想弄清楚的事情，而且現在投飛鏢確實很難。我認為我們關注的事情之一是——RIN 市場對我們來說仍然供過於求。因此，當我們進入 24 年底時，看起來 RIN 市場很長，加州 LCFS 市場將保持很長，因此，我們認為隨著價格開始上漲，我們看到 RD 利潤率在後面壓縮'24 的一半。

The policy things that are coming up, LCFS might expand with California. They're still saying that's going to be a 2025 change. The RIN update for 2026 got pushed to March of '25. But with all the expectations that AG has on the RFS volumes, we expect that will probably be some sort of increase. So I think longer term in sort of the next one to two years, we see a lot of tailwind for DGD in terms of credit prices.

根據即將出台的政策，LCFS 可能會擴展到加州。他們仍然表示 2025 年將會發生變化。 2026 年的 RIN 更新被推遲到 25 年 3 月。但考慮到 AG 對 RFS 數量的所有期望，我們預計這可能會增加。因此，我認為從長遠來看，在未來一到兩年內，我們會看到 DGD 在信貸價格方面有很大的推動力。

Specific to our platform, we are obviously diversifying into SAF. That's going to be a diversification away from RD with -- that includes a premium to RD. So that looks pretty strong. And then the other thing that will be interesting because this is being looked at now is, are we going to have a BTC or PTC transition January 1. And as we've said in the past, the RIN and the BTC have a relationship that previously, when we discussed the BTC going away, we expected the RIN to increase to keep the biodiesel producer at breakeven.

具體到我們的平台，我們顯然正在向 SAF 多元化發展。這將是遠離 RD 的多元化——其中包括 RD 的溢價。所以看起來相當強大。然後另一件有趣的事情是，因為現在正在研究這個問題，我們是否會在 1 月 1 日進行 BTC 或 PTC 過渡。在討論BTC 消失時，我們預計RIN 會增加，以使生質柴油生產商保持盈虧平衡。

So when you think about a BTC to PTC transition where the PTC is less than $1, there is some view that the RIN will have to pick up the difference in order to keep the biodiesel blender breakeven. So you have a little bit of a discussion of the market and the credits look long but the relationship between BTC, PTC, and the RIN has always been somewhat of a factor of rebalancing the market. How fast that happens, how soon that happens, the timing of that, given the elections, those are all kind of up in the air. But I think structurally, as you look forward, all of this looks pretty good for DGD.

因此，當您考慮從 BTC 到 PTC 的過渡（其中 PTC 低於 1 美元）時，有人認為 RIN 必須彌補差額，以保持生物柴油攪拌機的盈虧平衡。因此，你對市場進行了一些討論，積分看起來很長，但 BTC、PTC 和 RIN 之間的關係一直是市場再平衡的因素。考慮到選舉，這種情況發生的速度有多快，發生的時間有多快，發生的時間，這些都是懸而未決的。但我認為從結構上看，正如你所期望的那樣，所有這些對於 DGD 來說看起來都相當不錯。

Thank you for that nuance response.

感謝您的細緻回覆。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，豐業銀行。

Hi. Good morning. I think this is for Gary. Gary, can I go back into your comment about TMX. First now in May, May and so now just two months. From where you can see, do you think the impact on the West Coast market from the TMX is now fully retracted in the marketplace? Or the thing over the several months that we do have solution indication to the crude defense in that market?

你好。早安.我想這是給加里的。加里，我可以回顧一下您對 TMX 的評論嗎？首先是五月，五月，現在只有兩個月。從這裡可以看出，您認為TMX對西海岸市場的影響現在已經完全收回市場了嗎？或者說，過去幾個月我們確實對該市場的粗暴防禦有解決方案的跡象？

Secondly, maybe this is either for Gary or for Lane. As the market normalizes, how does it impact the way how your refining operations run in terms of the sustainable maximum run rate, crudely or product yield, whatever that you can give some comments, that would be great. Thank you.

其次，也許這要不是為了加里，就是為了萊恩。隨著市場正常化，它如何影響您的煉油業務在可持續最大運行率、原油或產品產量方面的運作方式，無​​論您能給出什麼評論，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yes. I'll start with TMX, Paul. Yes, I think that it took a little while for the West Coast market to respond to TMX. If you look though at where A&S was trading prior to the TMX start-up, and kind of where September is trading relative to Brent, A&S has come off in the $1.50 to $2 range, which is in line with what we thought the impact TMX would have on West Coast crude costs. I just don't think you'll see that show up until more third quarter.

是的。我將從 TMX 開始，保羅。是的，我認為西海岸市場花了一段時間才對 TMX 做出反應。如果您查看 A&S 在 TMX 啟動之前的交易情況，以及 9 月份相對於布倫特原油的交易情況，您會發現 A&S 的價格區間為 1.50 美元至 2 美元，這與我們認為的 TMX 影響一致將對西海岸原油成本產生影響。我只是認為直到第三季你才會看到這一點。

I'll take a shot at the second one. Paul, this is Lane. I don't really see as the world sort of settles on some other places that impacts our operations. We always take signals from the market. We focus on being reliable. We focus on execution. We don't move turnarounds and do things like that based on whether we think the market is good now, not later.

我會嘗試第二個。保羅，這是萊恩。我真的不認為世界會在其他一些地方定居下來影響我們的運作。我們總是從市場中獲取訊號。我們專注於可靠。我們注重執行力。我們不會根據我們認為現在市場是否良好（而不是以後）來進行扭轉或做類似的事情。

Our idea is operational excellence means that we wake up every day, we try to -- where we will execute in a way that we're the best operator that we can be, which we think we are the best operator out there. And so we don't really profoundly see any change based on necessarily some sort of different refining outlook.

我們的理念是卓越運營，這意味著我們每天醒來，我們都會努力以成為最好的運營商的方式執行，我們認為我們是最好的運營商。因此，我們並沒有真正深刻地看到基於某種不同的煉油前景的任何變化。

Got you. Thank you.

明白你了。謝謝。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

喬‧萊奇，摩根士丹利。

Hi, everyone. Good morning. And thanks for taking my questions. So on the refining side and on the export side, specifically, would you mind just giving us an update on Mexico? And if I remember right, I think there was a new terminal opening there this year as well.

大家好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。那麼，在煉油方面和出口方面，特別是在煉油方面和出口方面，您介意向我們介紹墨西哥的最新情況嗎？如果我沒記錯的話，我想今年那裡也開了一個新航廈。

Yes. So this is Gary. I would tell you, our volumes to Mexico were down a little bit. We've been fairly consistently sending about 100,000 barrels a day in the second quarter, that was more like 87,000 barrels a day. For us, it's just another knob we have in optimizing our Gulf Coast system. And with where Pemex was pricing the barrels, we had better alternatives. It's not a shift.

是的。這就是加里。我想告訴你，我們對墨西哥的出口量有所下降。第二季我們一直相當穩定地每天發送約 10 萬桶，大約是每天 87,000 桶。對我們來說，這只是我們優化墨西哥灣沿岸系統的另一個旋鈕。根據墨西哥國家石油公司對桶的定價，我們有更好的選擇。這不是一個轉變。

Moving forward, we do think you'll see some growth in our Mexico volumes. Our terminal that we'll utilize in Altamira will start up before the end of the year. It will allow us to be more competitive in the Northern Mexico market and allow us to continue to grow our volumes there.

展望未來，我們確實認為您會看到我們在墨西哥的銷售量有所成長。我們將在阿爾塔米拉使用的航站樓將於今年年底前啟動。這將使我們在北墨西哥市場更具競爭力，並使我們能夠繼續增加在那裡的銷售量。

Great. Thanks for that. And then shifting over to RD. So I know you talked about this a little bit earlier and feedstock costs have been higher over the past couple of months, but could you just talk about a little bit more about what you're seeing on the feedstock cost side as well as availability here with some of the new start-ups?

偉大的。謝謝你。然後轉移到RD。所以我知道您早些時候談到過這個問題，過去幾個月原料成本一直較高，但您能否多談談您在原料成本方面以及此處的可用性方面所看到的情況與一些新的新創企業？

Yeah. We have noticed that there is growing competition for waste oils. We're still the largest importer of foreign waste oils. So if we look at that -- they were used, if I compare it to last year, there was a pretty good arb of foreign feedstocks over domestic feedstocks being more advantaged. What we see that is that's largely incorporated and now domestic feedstocks look to be the most attractive from a cost standpoint.

是的。我們注意到，廢油的競爭日益激烈。我們仍然是國外廢油的最大進口國。因此，如果我們看一下——它們被使用了，如果我與去年相比，外國原料比國內原料更有優勢。我們看到的是，這在很大程度上是合併的，現在從成本的角度來看，國內原料似乎最具吸引力。

From a CI standpoint, those are still all the most advantaged feedstocks for RD, but we do see overall particularly waste oil feedstocks starting to increase. So I would say it looks like feedstock prices have bottomed out here in the second quarter. They're starting to trend up a little bit in the third quarter, largely attributed to some of the start-ups that we see in California.

從 CI 的角度來看，這些仍然是最有優勢的 RD 原料，但我們確實看到總體而言，尤其是廢油原料開始增加。所以我想說，原料價格似乎在第二季觸底。他們在第三季度開始略有上升，這主要歸功於我們在加州看到的一些新創公司。

Thanks for the time.

謝謝你的時間。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

尼爾梅塔，高盛。

Good morning, team. And thanks for all the great color. Staying on refining, I just love your guys' perspective on the coking market, especially in light of Port Arthur coming online, which was a really good asset. And just your perspective on fuel oil and the opportunity around how -- of coking and how that -- those margins can start to normalize over time? What's the sequence of events that we'll get back to tap?

早上好，團隊。感謝所有精彩的色彩。繼續精煉，我只是喜歡你們對焦化市場的看法，特別是考慮到亞瑟港的上線，這是一個非常好的資產。您對燃油的看法以及焦化的機會以及這些利潤如何隨著時間的推移而開始正常化？我們將返回點擊的事件順序是什麼？

Hey, Neil. This is Greg. So we still see good value in coking margins. Gary talked about where the heavy sour crude market has been. That's with our coker online and with the industry running the way it has. So I don't think that we see something that's a big step change going forward.

嘿，尼爾。這是格雷格。因此，我們仍然認為焦化利潤具有良好的價值。加里談到了重質高硫原油市場的現狀。這就是我們的線上焦化廠以及產業按照現有方式運作的情況。因此，我認為我們不會看到未來發生重大變化。

As Gary mentioned, as you put -- as you get some more medium sour, heavy crude into the market later this year, that should enhance that value. But right now, it's still a strong opportunity for us, still beats our other modes of operation and something we're looking to maximize.

正如加里所提到的那樣，隨著今年稍後更多的中質重質原油進入市場，這應該會提高該價值。但現在，這對我們來說仍然是一個巨大的機會，仍然優於我們的其他營運模式，也是我們希望最大化的。

Thank you. And then the follow-up is around Asia and specifically around China, as we look at oil demand data, one of the things that disappointed our model has been Chinese domestic demand. Do you see it -- as you look at the data, and that's a part of the contribution to some of the softness in PADD 5 and in the Asian refining margin lift in the absence of strong Chinese demand?

謝謝。然後，後續是圍繞亞洲，特別是中國，當我們查看石油需求數據時，令我們的模型失望的事情之一是中國的國內需求。當您查看數據時，您看到了嗎？

Neil, this is Gary. We don't have a lot of visibility into the markets in the Far East. But I would tell you, certainly, what you read is in China, especially diesel demand is down. We see as much as 10% a lot less construction activity there. But for the most part, it looks like they've adjusted refinery runs to say somewhat balanced on exports. Now, we would say exports are up slightly. But for the most part, they've adjusted refinery runs to balance demand, and we haven't seen a significant step change in their exports.

尼爾，這是加里。我們對遠東市場的了解不多。但我當然可以告訴你，你讀到的是中國，尤其是柴油需求下降。我們發現那裡的建築活動減少了 10%。但在大多數情況下，他們似乎已經調整了煉油廠的運行，以達到出口的平衡。現在，我們可以說出口略有成長。但在大多數情況下，他們調整了煉油廠的運作以平衡需求，而且我們沒有看到他們的出口發生重大變化。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝您，先生。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

賈森·加貝爾曼，TD·考恩。

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to go back to the wholesale channel growth. And it's been pretty consistent over the past few years. And I'm wondering if you can provide some sort of earnings estimate in terms of an uplift from selling through that channel relative to maybe some pre-COVID period or other baseline you have available? And if you expect that growth to continue?

嘿。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想回到批發管道的成長。在過去的幾年裡，情況一直非常穩定。我想知道您是否可以提供某種收益估計，即相對於新冠疫情之前的某個時期或您現有的其他基線，透過該通路銷售的收益提升？如果您預計這種成長會持續下去？

Yeah. The only comment -- we don't really give a lot of detail around our wholesale margins. Obviously, the growth is because that's our most -- the positive netback for our Gulf Coast system and our US system, and that's why we continue to push it to grow. So that should be reflected in capture rates going forward, but we don't really give a lot of detail on what those margins are.

是的。唯一的評論是——我們並沒有真正提供有關批發利潤的許多細節。顯然，成長是因為這是我們最大的——我們的墨西哥灣沿岸系統和美國系統的正淨回報，這就是我們繼續推動其成長的原因。因此，這應該反映在未來的捕獲率中，但我們並沒有真正提供有關這些利潤的詳細資訊。

Can you provide on a volumetric basis, how much it's grown and how much more you think you could push to that channel?

您能否提供體積基礎上的數據、增長了多少以及您認為可以向該管道推送多少量？

Yes, I can, roughly. I mean, you look three years ago, we were fairly consistently in the 850,000 barrel range and now over 1 million barrels a day. So somewhere in the neighborhood of 150,000 barrels a day of growth in wholesale is what I'd tell you over the last few years.

是的，我可以，大致可以。我的意思是，三年前，我們的產量相當穩定在 85 萬桶範圍內，而現在每天產量超過 100 萬桶。因此，過去幾年我會告訴您，批發量每天增長約 150,000 桶。

Jason, there's a page, I think page 24 in the deck, which goes all the way back to 2012 for more color.

Jason，本套中有一頁，我想是第 24 頁，可以追溯到 2012 年，以獲得更多的色彩。

All right. Great. Thanks. And then just specifically on results in refining. I think co-products were a pretty decent headwind to capture. I'm wondering how much that shaved off capture rates in 2Q and if you're seeing any reversal of those headwinds going into 3Q, especially as crude has started to fall?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後專門針對精煉結果。我認為聯產品是一個相當不錯的逆風。我想知道第二季的捕獲率下降了多少，以及您是否看到這些不利因素在第三季出現逆轉，特別是在原油價格開始下跌的情況下？

Yes, Jason. This is Greg. You're right. That was a headwind. I don't know if I have the exact amount. And that will come and go over time, certainly was working against us in the second quarter.

是的，傑森。這是格雷格。你說得對。那是一個逆風。我不知道我有沒有準確的金額。隨著時間的推移，這種情況會來來去去，這肯定在第二季對我們不利。

All right. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering and Holt.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸、皮克林和霍爾特。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just sticking on capture. I think it makes sense that your capture was lower quarter-over-quarter just due to those challenges in the co-products, but at the same time, I believe that the Q2 capture was the lowest absolute number in like five or six years. So has anything changed structurally on your capture compared to even just like last year?

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。也許只是堅持捕捉。我認為，由於聯產品中的這些挑戰，您的捕獲量環比下降是有道理的，但與此同時，我相信第二季度的捕獲量是五六年來最低的絕對數字。那麼與去年相比，您的拍攝結構上有什麼變化嗎？

So this is Greg. Yes, there were a few things going on in the second quarter that I think had some impact specific to this period. One, we always talk about the seasonal RVP change in gasoline and how that can have a negative impact on margin capture as you pull the butane out of the gasoline that you were able to do in the wintertime. So certainly, that was a piece. We also saw crude market backwardation fairly strong in second quarter, which impacts crude cost, the acquisition cost for crude. Yes, it was probably $0.80 to $0.90 a barrel relative to prior quarter and even looking back at some of the other periods in time. We talked about the co-products, naphtha propylene in particular.

這就是格雷格。是的，第二季發生的一些事情我認為對這段時期產生了一些影響。第一，我們總是談論汽油中 RVP 的季節性變化，以及當您從冬季汽油中提取丁烷時，這會對利潤獲取產生負面影響。所以當然，那是一塊。我們也看到第二季原油市場現貨溢價相當強勁，這影響了原油成本和原油採購成本。是的，與上一季相比，每桶價格可能為 0.80 至 0.90 美元，甚至回顧其他一些時期也是如此。我們討論了副產品，特別是石腦油丙烯。

And I think the other thing maybe worth noting that is a bit unique to the second quarter, we always pride ourselves on being able to go secure some of those opportunity feedstocks that we can run in our system, particularly in our Gulf Coast system with all the flexibility we have there. And I would just tell you in the second quarter, just the way the market played out, there just wasn't a lot of that opportunity to be had, not that we weren't looking for it. It's just the way kind of the market shaped up. And so that's a bit unique from what we've seen in the past. And I would expect we'd see those kind of opportunities when we look forward going in future periods.

我認為另一件事可能值得注意，那就是第二季度的獨特之處，我們總是為能夠獲得一些我們可以在我們的系統中運行的機會原料而感到自豪，特別是在我們的墨西哥灣沿岸系統中，我們在那裡擁有的靈活性。我只想告訴你，在第二季度，就市場的表現而言，並沒有太多機會，並不是說我們沒有在尋找它。這就是市場形成的方式。因此，這與我們過去所看到的有點獨特。我希望當我們展望未來時，我們會看到此類機會。

Great. Thanks for the color. And then on the ethanol side, if I could ask, how sustainable do you think this recent uptick in ethanol margins is? And also, is there an update on the Summit carbon capture project? When do you expect that to start up and benefit your ethanol plants? Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。然後在乙醇方面，如果我可以問的話，您認為最近乙醇利潤的上升有多可持續？另外，峰會碳捕獲計畫有最新進展嗎？您預計什麼時候啟動並使您的乙醇工廠受益？謝謝。

Sure. On the ethanol side, this increased margin is really a result of cheap natural gas prices as well as cheap corn. If you look at all of the carryout numbers for this year, with Brazil having a record crop, the US having a record crop forecasted, the carryout is going to be pretty large. That means we're still carrying a fairly large inventory of corn from last year. The harvest that's coming up is going to be another large inventory. So we -- so I see corn fairly cheap barring weather event between now and harvest or something dramatic in Brazil. So I think the -- I'm positive on the ethanol outlook for the next -- for this -- the rest of this year and into next year. After that, it's always harvest to harvest of what the next outlook will look like after that.

當然。在乙醇方面，利潤率的增加實際上是廉價天然氣價格和廉價玉米的結果。如果你看今年所有的結轉數據，巴西的收成將創歷史新高，美國的收成預計將創歷史新高，結轉量將相當大。這意味著我們仍然持有去年相當大的玉米庫存。即將到來的收穫將是另一個巨大的庫存。因此，我認為玉米相當便宜，除非從現在到收穫期間發生天氣事件或巴西發生重大事件。所以我認為，我對今年剩餘時間和明年的乙醇前景持樂觀態度。在那之後，總是在收穫，收穫之後的下一個前景會是什麼樣子。

As far as Summit, that's not our project. That's really a question for Summit. They just got their approval in Iowa. We still view carbon sequestration as a supportive strategy for ethanol, but that's -- we're just a shipper on that project. So if and when that gets put in the ground where we'll happily hook up to it and provide volume into that system, but we don't really have a whole lot of insight into the project itself.

至於 Summit，那不是我們的專案。這確實是峰會的一個問題。他們剛剛在愛荷華州獲得批准。我們仍然將碳封存視為乙醇的支持性策略，但事實是——我們只是該專案的承運人。因此，如果當它被投入使用時，我們會很樂意連接它並為該系統提供容量，但我們對專案本身並沒有真正的深入了解。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Homer for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議轉回霍默致閉幕詞。

Great. Thank you. I appreciate everyone joining us today. As always, feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions. Thank you, and have a great week.

偉大的。謝謝。我感謝今天大家加入我們。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝您，祝您有個愉快的一週。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。