瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Valero Energy Corp. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Chief, -- I'm sorry, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corp. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人荷馬·布拉爾（Homer Bhullar），首席，——對不起，投資者關係和財務副總裁。謝謝。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our CEO and President; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早安，歡迎參加瓦萊羅能源公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的執行長兼總裁萊恩·里格斯 (Lane Riggs)； Jason Fraser，我們的執行副總裁兼財務長；加里‧西蒙斯 (Gary Simmons)，我們的執行副總裁兼營運長；以及瓦萊羅高階管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Although attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到收益報告並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站 Investorvalero.com 上找到一份副本。儘管收益發布附有表格，但提供了有關我們業務部門的額外財務資訊以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後財務指標的調節和披露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請隨時在電話會議後聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC.

現在我想請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，它表示，新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的因素。

Now I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給萊恩，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report strong financial results for the third quarter. In fact, we set a record for third quarter earnings per share. Finding margins were supported by strong product demand against the backdrop of low product inventories, which remained at 5-year lows despite higher refinery utilization rates globally. The strength in demand was evident in our U.S. wholesale system, which matched the second quarter record of over 1 million barrels per day of sales volume. Our refineries operated well and achieved 95% throughput capacity utilization in the third quarter, which is a testament to our team's continued focus on operational excellence. We continue to prioritize strategic projects that enhance the earnings capability of our business and expand our long-term competitive advantage. The DGD Sustainable Aviation Fuel, or SaaS project at Port Arthur remains on schedule and is expected to be complete in 2025.

謝謝你，荷馬，大家早安。我們很高興地報告第三季強勁的財務表現。事實上，我們創下了第三季每股收益的紀錄。在產品庫存較低的背景下，強勁的產品需求支撐了利潤率的成長，儘管全球煉油廠利用率較高，但產品庫存仍處於五年來的最低水準。我們的美國批發系統的需求強勁，達到了第二季超過 100 萬桶/日的銷售記錄。我們的煉油廠運作良好，第三季產能利用率達到 95%，證明了我們團隊持續專注於卓越營運。我們持續優先考慮能夠增強業務獲利能力並擴大長期競爭優勢的策略項目。亞瑟港的 DGD 永續航空燃料 (SaaS) 計畫仍在按計劃進行，預計將於 2025 年完成。

Once complete, we expect the Port Arthur plant to have the optionality to upgrade up to 50% of its current of 470 million-gallon annual renewable diesel production capacity at SAF. The project is estimated to cost $315 million, with half of that attributable to Valero. With the completion of this project, Diamond Green Diesel is expected to become one of the largest manufacturers of SAF in the world. On the financial side, we honored our commitment to shareholder returns with a payout ratio of 68% of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities through dividends and share repurchases in the third quarter and we ended the third quarter with a net debt to capitalization ratio of 17%. In closing, while there are broader factors that may drive volatility in the markets, we remain focused on things we can control. This includes operating our assets efficiently in a safe, reliable and environmentally responsible manner, maintaining capital discipline by adhering to a minimum return threshold for growth projects and honoring our commitment to shareholder returns.

一旦竣工，我們預計亞瑟港工廠將可以選擇將 SAF 目前每年 4.7 億加侖的再生柴油產能升級至 50%。該項目預計耗資 3.15 億美元，其中一半由瓦萊羅承擔。隨著該計畫的完成，鑽石綠柴油有望成為全球最大的SAF製造商之一。在財務方面，我們兌現了對股東回報的承諾，第三季透過股利和股票回購經營活動提供的調整後淨現金的支付率為68%，第三季末的淨負債與資本比率為17% 。最後，雖然有更廣泛的因素可能導致市場波動，但我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情。這包括以安全、可靠和對環境負責的方式有效運作我們的資產，透過遵守成長項目的最低迴報門檻來維持資本紀律，並履行我們對股東回報的承諾。

So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

那麼，荷馬，我會把電話轉給你。

Thanks, Lane. For the third quarter of 2023, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.6 billion or $7.49 per share compared to $2.8 billion or $7.19 per share for the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.8 billion or $7.14 per share for the third quarter of 2022. The refining segment reported $3.4 billion of operating income for the third quarter of 2023 compared to $3.8 billion for the third quarter of 2022. Refining throughput volumes in the third quarter of 2023 averaged 3 million barrels per day, implying a throughput capacity utilization of 95%. Refining cash operating expenses were $4.91 per barrel in the third quarter of 2023, higher than guidance of $4.70 per barrel primarily attributed to higher-than-expected energy prices. Renewable diesel segment operating income was $123 million for the third quarter of 2023 compared to $212 million for the third quarter of 2022. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 3 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2023, which was 761,000 gallons per day higher than the third quarter of 2022. The higher sales volumes in the third quarter of 2023 were due to the impact of additional volumes from the DGD Port Arthur plant, which started up in the fourth quarter of 2022.

謝謝，萊恩。 2023 年第三季度，歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨利為26 億美元，即每股7.49 美元，而2022 年第三季為28 億美元，即每股7.19 美元。調整後歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨利潤為28 億美元，即每股7.14 美元。2022 年第三季。煉油部門報告 2023 年第三季營業收入為34 億美元，而2022 年第三季為38 億美元。 2023 年第第三季煉油吞吐量平均為每天300 萬桶，這意味著吞吐能力利用率達95%。 2023 年第三季煉油現金營運支出為每桶 4.91 美元，高於每桶 4.70 美元的指導，主要歸因於能源價格高於預期。 2023 年第三季再生柴油部門營業收入為1.23 億美元，而2022 年第三季為2.12 億美元。2023 年第三季再生柴油銷售平均每天300 萬加侖，比2022 年第三季每天的銷量高出761,000 加侖。2022 年第三季。2023 年第三季銷量增加是由於 DGD 亞瑟港工廠銷量增加的影響，該工廠於 2022 年第四季啟動。

Operating income was lower than the third quarter of 2022, primarily due to lower renewable diesel margin in the third quarter of 2023. The ethanol segment reported $197 million of operating income for the third quarter of 2023 compared to $1 million for the third quarter of 2022. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.3 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2023, which was 831,000 gallons per day higher than the third quarter of 2022. Operating income was higher than the third quarter of 2022, primarily as a result of higher production volumes and lower corn prices in the third quarter of 2023. For the third quarter of 2023, G&A expenses were $250 million and net interest expense was $149 million. Depreciation and amortization expense was $682 million and income tax expense was $813 million for the third quarter of 2023. The effective tax rate was 23%. Net cash provided by operating activities was $3.3 billion in the third quarter of 2023. Included in this amount was a $33 million favorable change in working capital and $82 million of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD. Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $3.2 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

營業收入低於2022 年第三季度，主要是由於2023 年第三季再生柴油利潤率較低。乙醇部門報告2023 年第三季營業收入為1.97 億美元，而2022 年第三季為100 萬美元. 2023年第三季度乙醇產量平均每天430萬加侖，比2022年第三季度增加831,000加侖每天。營業收入高於2022年第三季度，主要是由於產量增加2023 年第三季度玉米價格下降。 2023 年第三季度，一般管理費用為2.5 億美元，淨利息費用為1.49 億美元。 2023 年第三季折舊和攤提費用為 6.82 億美元，所得稅費用為 8.13 億美元。有效稅率為 23%。 2023 年第三季度，經營活動提供的淨現金為 33 億美元。其中包括 3,300 萬美元的營運資本有利變化以及與 DGD 其他合資企業成員股份相關的經營活動提供的 8,200 萬美元的調整後淨現金。排除這些項目，2023 年第三季經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為 32 億美元。

Regarding investing activities, we made $394 million of capital investments in the third quarter of 2023, of which $303 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and $91 million was for growing the business. Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture members share of DGD capital investments attributable to Valero were $352 million in the third quarter of 2023.

在投資活動方面，我們在 2023 年第三季進行了 3.94 億美元的資本投資，其中 3.03 億美元用於維持業務，包括週轉、催化劑和監管合規成本，9,100 萬美元用於發展業務。 2023 年第三季度，若不計入其他合資企業成員在 DGD 資本投資中所佔份額，瓦萊羅的資本投資額為 3.52 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $2.2 billion to our stockholders in the third quarter of 2023 of which $360 million was paid as dividends and $1.8 billion was for the purchase of approximately 13 million shares of common stock resulting in a payout ratio of 68% of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities. This results in a year-to-date payout ratio of 58% as of September 30, 2023. With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $9.2 billion of total debt, $2.3 billion of finance lease obligations and $5.8 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Debt to capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was 17% as of September 30, 2023 and we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5.4 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

轉向融資活動。我們在 2023 年第三季向股東返還 22 億美元，其中 3.6 億美元作為股息支付，18 億美元用於購買約 1,300 萬股普通股，導致派息率為調整後淨現金的 68%。經營活動。截至2023 年9 月30 日，年初至今的股利率為58%。就我們的資產負債表而言，本季末我們的總負債為92 億美元，融資租賃債務為23 億美元，現金為58億美元和現金等價物。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，扣除現金及現金等價物後的負債與資本比率為 17%，本季末我們資本充足，可用流動資金為 54 億美元（不含現金）。

Separately, as reported by Navigator last week, they canceled their CO2 pipeline project. We still see carbon capture and storage as a strategic opportunity to reduce the carbon intensity of conventional ethanol, which would also qualify as a feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel. Without carbon capture and storage, conventional ethanol does not have a pathway into staff under today's policies. We continue to evaluate other projects to sequester CO2.

另外，根據 Navigator 上週報導，他們取消了二氧化碳管道計畫。我們仍將碳捕獲和儲存視為降低傳統乙醇碳強度的戰略機會，而傳統乙醇也有資格作為永續航空燃料的原料。根據當今的政策，如果沒有碳捕獲和儲存，傳統乙醇就無法進入員工隊伍。我們繼續評估其他封存二氧化碳的項目。

Turning to guidance. We still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2023 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts and joint venture investments. About $1.5 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth. For modeling our fourth quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.77 million to 1.82 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 445,000 to 465,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 245,000 to 265,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 470,000 to 490,000 barrels per day.

轉向指導。我們仍預期 2023 年瓦萊羅的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括扭虧為盈、催化劑和合資企業投資的支出。其中約 15 億美元用於維持業務，其餘用於成長。為了模擬我們第四季的營運情況，我們預計煉油吞吐量將落在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸為每天 177 萬桶至 182 萬桶；中大陸產量為每天 445,000 至 465,000 桶；西海岸每天 245,000 至 265,000 桶；北大西洋的產量為每天 470,000 至 490,000 桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the fourth quarter to be approximately $4.60 per barrel. With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2023. Operating expenses in 2023 should be $0.49 per gallon, which includes $0.19 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization. Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.4 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.39 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization. For the fourth quarter, net interest expense should be about $145 million, and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $690 million.

我們預計第四季煉油現金營運支出約為每桶 4.60 美元。對於再生柴油領域，我們預計 2023 年銷量約為 12 億加侖。2023 年的營運費用應為每加侖 0.49 美元，其中包括折舊和攤銷等非現金成本每加侖 0.19 美元。我們的乙醇部門預計第四季每天生產 440 萬加侖。營運費用平均為每加侖 0.39 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤提。第四季的淨利息支出應約為 1.45 億美元，總折舊和攤提費用應約為 6.9 億美元。

For 2023, we expect G&A expenses to be approximately $925 million. That concludes our opening remarks. Before we open the call to questions, please adhere to our protocol of limiting each turn in the Q&A to 2 questions. If you have more than 2 questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

2023 年，我們預計一般管理費用約為 9.25 億美元。我們的開場白就到此結束。在我們開始提問之前，請遵守我們的協議，將問答中的每輪限制為 2 個問題。如果您有兩個以上的問題，請在時間允許的情況下重新加入佇列，以確保其他來電者有時間提問。

(Operator Instructions). Today's first question is coming from Theresa Chen of Barclays.

（操作員說明）。今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

I'd first like to ask about your outlook for near-term refining margins and specifically on the gasoline side. We've seen that significant volatility recently, especially early in October. What do you think explains the recent downside? And how does compare with demand across your footprint? Maybe going back to Lane's earlier comments on your wholesale system? And just generally, how do you think gasoline margins trend going forward?

我首先想問你們對近期煉油利潤的前景，特別是汽油方面的前景。我們最近看到了劇烈的波動，尤其是十月初。您認為如何解釋最近的不利因素？與您的足跡的需求相比如何？也許回到萊恩之前對你們的批發系統的評論？總的來說，您認為汽油利潤率的未來趨勢如何？

Theresa, this is Gary. Yes, I think you had several factors that contributed to the sharp sell-off in gasoline. You kind of had the market view that hurricane season was over, you were approaching RVP transition. And then the DOE put out some fairly pessimistic demand numbers. And so all that kind of hit at once and caused a fairly significant sell-off in gasoline. In terms of the outlook going forward, we'd expect gasoline to kind of follow typical seasonal patterns, weaker cracks, kind of the fourth quarter and first quarter.

特蕾莎，這是加里。是的，我認為有幾個因素導致了汽油的大幅拋售。您的市場觀點認為颶風季節已經結束，您正在接近 RVP 過渡。然後能源部公佈了一些相當悲觀的需求數據。因此，所有這些打擊同時發生並導致汽油出現相當大的拋售。就未來的前景而言，我們預計汽油將遵循典型的季節性模式，即第四季和第一季的裂縫減弱。

The thing we're really looking at, as you know, the fundamental that looks good to us is the market structure still doesn't really support storing summer-grade gasoline, putting gasoline in New York Harbor for driving season next year. So as long as that's the case, our view would be that when you get to driving season next year, demand picks back up, you'll see cracks respond.

如你所知，我們真正關注的事情是，對我們來說看起來不錯的基本面是市場結構仍然不真正支持儲存夏季級汽油，將汽油存放在紐約港以供明年的駕駛季節使用。因此，只要情況確實如此，我們的觀點就是，當明年進入駕駛季節時，需求回升，您就會看到裂縫的反應。

Thank you. And on the crude oil side, in terms of light-heavy differentials, given the heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and coupled with the incremental Venezuelan production following the recent sanctions relief and taking also into account the potential near-term start-up of (inaudible). How do you think about the impact of all these variables on light-heavy differentials? And how this evolving from here?

謝謝。原油方面，鑑於中東地緣政治風險加劇，加上近期制裁解除後委內瑞拉產量增加，並考慮到近期可能啟動的原油供應，輕重差異明顯。 （聽不清楚）。您如何看待所有這些變數對輕重差異的影響？這將如何演變？

Yes. So really, the key driver on the light-heavy differentials continues to be the 4.5 million barrels a day that OPEC Plus has off the market. So we saw fairly tight differentials in the third quarter. They have moved wider despite the geopolitical issues that you've discussed. Some of that is just typical seasonal patterns. You've had less high sulfur fuel burn for power generation in the Middle East. So high sulfur fuel discounts have widen some. We've seen some turnaround activity, especially in PADD 2 that pushed some heavy seller back on the market, causing differentials to widen out. Freight markets actually have a fairly significant impact on those differentials as well. So freight moving higher is causing the differentials to move. But we kind of see until the OPEC+ comes back on the market that you'll have narrower heavy sour differentials and they'll follow typical seasonal patterns.

是的。因此，實際上，輕重差異的關鍵驅動因素仍然是 OPEC+ 每天從市場上減少的 450 萬桶石油。因此，我們在第三季看到了相當小的差異。儘管存在您討論過的地緣政治問題，但它們的範圍已經擴大了。其中一些只是典型的季節性模式。中東地區用於發電的高硫燃料燃燒量減少。因此，高硫燃料折扣已經擴大了一些。我們已經看到了一些扭虧為盈的活動，特別是在 PADD 2 中，這將一些大賣家推回了市場，導致價差擴大。貨運市場其實對這些差異也有相當大的影響。因此，貨運量的上漲導致了價差的變化。但我們預計，在 OPEC+ 重返市場之前，重酸價差將縮小，並將遵循典型的季節性模式。

The next question is coming from Sam Margolin of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的薩姆·馬戈林。

This might be one question but in 2 parts, which I know you guys love. So it goes back to the gasoline comment, and it just seems like the market might be more seasonal than it had been in the past just because of the way consumers kind of travel and work. And then -- but at the same time, your system has gotten a little more diesel-oriented with the Port Arthur Coker and Valero has a history of really strong sort of capture results and execution results in the fourth quarter when there's typically a lot of volatility and dislocations around all these markets. So the question is do you think that this kind of enhanced seasonality in gasoline is something we should get used to in future years? And in terms of your configuration and position within that, is it arguably better than it was sort of before you brought on some recent projects?

這可能是個問題，但分為兩部分，我知道你們喜歡。因此，回到汽油評論，由於消費者的旅行和工作方式，市場似乎可能比過去更具季節性。然後 - 但與此同時，您的系統已經變得更加以柴油為導向，亞瑟港科克和瓦萊羅在第四季度有著非常強大的捕獲結果和執行結果的歷史，當時通常有很多所有這些市場的波動和混亂。所以問題是，您認為汽油的這種季節性增強是我們未來幾年應該習慣的嗎？就您的配置和職位而言，它是否比您最近進行一些專案之前更好？

Yes. So on the first part of the question in terms of even more seasonality around gasoline, I can't say that we're really seeing that. We did see sales throughout our whole system fall off a little bit after Labor Day but they've actually recovered quite nicely, and we're back into that 1 million barrels a day of sales. Gasoline sales year-over-year are up 2% in the current market from where they were last year at this time. Diesel sales are up a little stronger at 8% so I don't think it really is a seasonability factor that's impacting gasoline at least in the domestic markets.

是的。因此，對於問題的第一部分，即汽油的季節性因素，我不能說我們真的看到了這一點。我們確實看到整個系統的銷量在勞動節之後略有下降，但實際上已經恢復得很好，我們又回到了每天 100 萬桶的銷量。目前市場的汽油銷售量比去年同期成長了 2%。柴油銷量成長了 8%，因此我不認為季節性因素確實影響了汽油，至少在國內市場是如此。

So it's Lane (inaudible), the second part, Sam. It's -- we really had a view since I want to say the 20 -- early '20 teens where we saw the diesel would be sort of the fuel of the future. It's is the economic driver. So not only did we do the coker that you alluded to here recently. We also built a 2 big hydro cracker. We revamped the 2 big hydrocrackers, this is all in an effort to make our system more robust and its ability to move around and specifically be able to move towards making more and more distillate out of our assets.

這是萊恩（聽不清楚），第二部，山姆。我們確實有一個觀點，因為我想說的是，在 20 世紀 20 年代初期，我們看到柴油將成為未來的燃料。這是經濟驅動力。所以我們不僅做了你最近在這裡提到的焦化器。我們也建造了一座 2 座大型加氫裂解裝置。我們改造了兩台大型加氫裂解器，這一切都是為了使我們的系統更加穩健，使其能夠移動，特別是能夠從我們的資產中生產出越來越多的餾分油。

The next question is coming from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

A couple of questions, if I may. I guess the first one is, I guess, about the Port Arthur Coker and more generally, what you're seeing going on and got the Gulf Coast as it relates to heavy or advantaged seller crude spreads? And I guess my point is, Dos Bocas, obviously, looms large in the horizon, but Maya seems to have behaved very differently from your indicator from WCS. And I realize that's largely your benchmark. So I'm just curious, are we seeing the capture rate from the coker that you anticipated? And what's your prognosis, I guess, for those advantaged crude spreads that are obviously a big factor in that project?

如果可以的話，有幾個問題。我想第一個是關於亞瑟港科克，更一般地說，您所看到的情況是墨西哥灣沿岸發生了什麼，因為它與沉重或有利的賣方原油價差有關？我想我的觀點是，Dos Bocas 顯然在地平線上顯得很大，但 Maya 的表現似乎與 WCS 指標的表現非常不同。我意識到這很大程度上是你的基準。所以我很好奇，我們是否看到了您預期的焦化器捕獲率？我想，對於那些明顯是該專案中一個重要因素的有利原油價差，您的預測是什麼？

I'm going to hand this off to Gary and Greg, I think, Gary, you might answer the heavy sour part and then Greg is going to answer this capture rate on the coker.

我要把這個問題交給加里和格雷格，我想，加里，你可能會回答重酸的部分，然後格雷格將回答焦化器的捕獲率。

Yes. So we've seen heavy sour discounts widen back out. In Canada, they're back on apportionment on the pipeline. It looks like forecast for fairly robust production in Canada. You're seeing the Venezuelan back on the market. And then our view is, even when this focus does start up, it may take some eye off the market probably increases fuel yield from Mexico. And so that coker, we can use that as a feedstock as well. And I'll let Greg address the capture question.

是的。因此，我們看到酸味折扣大幅回落。在加拿大，他們又重新開始分配。看起來加拿大的生產相當強勁。你會看到委內瑞拉貨重新回到市場。我們的觀點是，即使這一焦點確實開始，它也可能會分散市場的注意力，可能會增加墨西哥的燃料產量。因此，我們也可以將焦化裝置當作原料。我會讓格雷格解決捕獲問題。

Yes. And Doug, what I'd say about the cokers, it operated very well for the quarter, certainly consistent with our expectations. And so the project is generating good strong economic value, both by lowering feedstock, some of the things Gary is talking about and also enabling us to increase throughput.

是的。道格，我想說的是焦化廠，該季度的營運狀況非常好，當然符合我們的預期。因此，該項目正在產生良好的強大經濟價值，既透過降低原料（加里正在談論的一些事情），又使我們能夠提高產量。

Sorry, guys, on Dos Bocas, is that impacting spreads on the Gulf Coast materially?

抱歉，各位，在多斯博卡斯，這對墨西哥灣沿岸的傳播有實質影響嗎？

I don't think there's any impact today.

我認為今天沒有任何影響。

Okay. My follow-up is a quick one maybe it's for Jason. But another $1.8 billion of buybacks. You've now bought back, I think, about 15% of your shares in the last 1.5 years. You still got plenty of cash on the balance sheet, and we know this sector is notoriously seasonal. I'm just curious how we should think about your deployment or strategy of buybacks into seasonal periods when you get -- perhaps get more opportunistic?

好的。我的後續行動很快，也許是針對傑森的。但還有另外 18 億美元的回購。我認為，您現在已經回購了過去 1.5 年中約 15% 的股票。資產負債表上仍然有大量現金，而且我們知道這個行業是出了名的季節性。我只是很好奇，當你變得更加機會主義時，我們應該如何考慮你在季節性時期的部署或回購策略？

Yes. Thanks, Doug. Yes, it's okay. I'll talk about our approach to buybacks is driven by our thoughts around cash, the dividend debt. So I'll walk you through that and how we're looking about -- thinking about the rest of the year and then we can see if there's more you [want be] on that. So on cash, as you said, we ended the quarter at $5.8 billion. We've indicated minimum target of $4 [million]. So we're very comfortable with us being in that current range now. On the debt side, we always practically look at our portfolio through a liability management lens on an ongoing basis, but we certainly don't have any needs to pay down any debt at this time. Net debt to cap as of September 30 was 17%. So it's a bit under our target range. So we're in good shape there. And on the dividend, we maintain a dividend, is competitive, growing and sustainable through the cycle. And we feel like we're in a reasonable range now. I wouldn't want to get into more specific on timing or potential dividend increases at this time.

是的。謝謝，道格。是的，沒關係。我將談論我們的回購方法是由我們對現金和股息債務的想法所驅動的。因此，我將引導您了解這一點以及我們的想法 - 思考今年剩下的時間，然後我們可以看看您是否[想要]在這方面做更多的事情。因此，就現金而言，正如您所說，本季末我們的現金餘額為 58 億美元。我們指定的最低目標為 4 [百萬] 美元。因此，我們對現在處於目前的範圍內感到非常滿意。在債務方面，我們實際上總是透過負債管理的視角持續審視我們的投資組合，但目前我們當然沒有任何需要償還任何債務。截至 9 月 30 日，淨債務上限為 17%。所以它有點低於我們的目標範圍。所以我們在那裡狀況良好。在股息方面，我們維持股息，在整個週期中具有競爭力、成長性和可持續性。我們覺得現在處於合理範圍內。我現在不想更具體地討論時間或潛在的股息增加。

And then that brings us to buyback and you know our post to buybacks is to have the annual target of 40% to 50% of adjusted net cash from operations, and we view the buyback as a flywheel supplementing our dividend to hit whatever our target is for the year. In the third quarter, we had a 68% payout year-to-date through the third quarter, we're at 58%. So I would say, under these conditions, even given the softer seasonality in the fourth quarter, you should definitely expect us to pay out over 50% for the year. And as you may recall, prior to pandemic, that was a fairly regular practice of 5 years before the pandemic, I think we averaged like a 57% payout. So in these periods where we have greatly above-average free cash generation, that will probably continue to be our practice.

然後這讓我們進行回購，你知道我們的回購目標是調整後的營運淨現金的 40% 至 50%，我們將回購視為補充股息的飛輪，以實現我們的目標。今年。第三季度，我們的支付率為 68%，截至第三季度，我們的支付率為 58%。所以我想說，在這種情況下，即使第四季季節性較弱，你絕對應該期望我們全年支付超過 50% 的費用。您可能還記得，在大流行之前，這是大流行之前 5 年的相當常規的做法，我認為我們的平均支付率為 57%。因此，在我們的自由現金產生量大大高於平均水準的時期，這可能會繼續成為我們的做法。

Clarification, Lane, if you don't mind, the fact you're already above 50%, the high end of your payout, does that preclude stepping into additional buybacks for the balance of this year?

澄清一下，萊恩，如果你不介意的話，事實上你已經超過了 50%，即你的支付上限，這是否會妨礙今年餘下的時間進行額外的回購？

No, no, Doug. We look at it on an annual basis, and I would think we'll be over 50% for the year. So it definitely does (inaudible) the buyback.

不，不，道格。我們每年都會考慮這一點，我認為今年我們會超過 50%。所以它肯定會（聽不清楚）回購。

The next question is coming from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe -- could you talk through a little bit about what you're seeing in renewable diesel markets. 2Q margins were obviously quite soft, indicators been weak. Can you talk -- was there any impact from hedging losses in the quarter and maybe could you help us if there were kind of a rough estimate of maybe what that was? And then can you just more broadly talk about what you're seeing in terms of supply demand in the marketplace impact of RIN pricing and RVO limitations, et cetera?

也許—您能談談您在再生柴油市場中看到的情況嗎？第二季利潤率明顯疲軟，指標疲軟。您能否談談本季對沖損失是否有任何影響？如果對影響有一個粗略的估計，您是否可以幫助我們？然後您能否更廣泛地談談您所看到的 RIN 定價和 RVO 限制等對市場供應需求的影響？

Sure, Ryan, this is Eric. I think we saw the RIN prices drop pretty quickly kind of in that September and into October. And really, as you stare at that drop, it was kind of on the news that there was the anticipation of a couple of big start-ups at the end of the year that have now been delayed. It was also in the news that there was going to be with Russia freezing out its exports that it would force the U.S. to export more, therefore, drop the obligation. So the combination of all that news kind of caused a precipitous drop in the RINs kind of right at the end of the quarter and into the beginning of the fourth quarter. The real margin loss there is really because as fat prices have since adjusted in the spot market but obviously, there's a lag of our fat prices that kind of carried on that have since started to catch up with this drop in credit prices. But we'll see that continue to carry through, through the fourth quarter. But overall, I think that's really what we're seeing. The spot margin is cleaned back up. Fat prices continue to come off. You really see all of that being kind of a return to profitability here in the fourth quarter. So that's really what we see going on in the RD market.

當然，瑞安，這是埃里克。我認為我們看到 RIN 價格在 9 月和 10 月快速下降。事實上，當你看到這一跌幅時，你會發現新聞中透露，預計今年年底會有幾家大型新創公司上市，但現在已經被推遲了。還有消息稱，俄羅斯將凍結其出口，這將迫使美國增加出口，因此放棄這項義務。因此，所有這些消息的結合導致 RIN 在季度末和第四季度初急劇下降。真正的利潤損失實際上是因為脂肪價格在現貨市場上進行了調整，但顯然，我們的脂肪價格存在一定的滯後性，這種滯後性已經開始趕上信貸價格的下降。但我們將看到這種情況繼續延續到第四季。但總的來說，我認為這確實是我們所看到的。現貨餘量被清理回來。脂肪價格持續下跌。您確實可以看到所有這些都在第四季度恢復了盈利能力。這就是我們在研發市場所看到的情況。

Okay. And then maybe switching on the refining side, as we think about PADD 5, you'll said, it was really quite strong through third quarter on a relative basis across the country and into the early part of the fourth quarter. Can you talk maybe about what you're seeing overall in terms of kind of supply/demand in PADD 5 across your operations there? There's a lot of moving pieces with some refineries that are -- that have transitioned off the market from conversions right now. So how do you -- as you look forward on the next -- do you expect that market to stay relatively tight for the foreseeable future? And how do you think about it relative to your operations there?

好的。然後也許會轉向煉油方面，當我們考慮 PADD 5 時，您會說，在全國範圍內相對而言，第三季度到第四季度初期，它確實非常強勁。您能否談談您在當地營運中 PADD 5 的供需類型整體情況？一些煉油廠有很多移動部件，現在已經從轉換中退出市場。那麼，當您展望未來時，您如何預期市場在可預見的未來將保持相對緊張的狀態？您如何看待與您在那裡的營運相關的問題？

Ryan, this is Gary. I think our view of PADD 5 is that with the renewable diesel coming into the market, the market should be well supplied on the distillate side but it's going to be very tight on gasoline. You just don't have the gasoline production that you used to have with the refinery conversions. And so when one refinery goes down, it's going to create a lot of shortness in the market.

瑞安，這是加里。我認為我們對 PADD 5 的看法是，隨著再生柴油進入市場，市場餾分油供應應該充足，但汽油供應將會非常緊張。你只是沒有像以前那樣透過煉油廠改造來生產汽油。因此，當煉油廠倒閉時，就會造成市場嚴重短缺。

The next question is coming from Manav Gupta of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

Guys, you are known for your capital discipline and you look at a lot of projects and in the end, very few actually make it through the funnel. We are somewhere in October. You guys haven't talked about a major project yet. And I'm just wondering if 2024 would then be more of a quick hit projects. I mean, coker has already come online. So when I look at 2024, should we think for the year where you could be doing more quick hit projects versus a mega project, which generally can go on for 3 to 4 years?

夥計們，你們以資本紀律而聞名，你們研究了很多項目，但最終很少有項目真正能夠通過漏斗。我們在十月的某個地方。你們還沒有談論一個重大項目。我只是想知道 2024 年是否會成為更熱門的項目。我的意思是，焦炭已經上線了。因此，當我展望 2024 年時，我們是否應該考慮在這一年中，您可以做更多快速熱門項目，而不是通常可以持續 3 到 4 年的大型項目？

Manav, this is Lane. So the way I would say, I agree with you, and that's -- we still believe we can -- we'll spend somewhere between $0.5 billion to $1 billion a year of strategic capital. But when you look at sort of what's the nature of those, certainly on the refining side, they are going to be shorter cash cycle types of projects instead of a big like a coker type project there'll be a series of small projects. And then when you further drill down and what do we look for? We look for refining projects to lower our cost to produce. We also like projects and improve our reliability and then, of course, we like to hold renewable line in terms of its ability for us to drop the carbon intensity of our fuels. And as you also said, we're very careful about our communication on projects. We'd like to be a little closer to FID or at FID before we really talk about them.

馬納夫，這是萊恩。所以我想說的是，我同意你的觀點，那就是——我們仍然相信我們可以——我們每年將花費 5 億到 10 億美元的戰略資本。但是，當你看看這些項目的性質時，當然是在煉油方面，它們將是較短現金週期類型的項目，而不是像焦化器類型的大型項目，會有一系列小型項目。然後當你進一步深入時，我們要尋找什麼？我們尋找煉油項目來降低生產成本。我們也喜歡專案並提高我們的可靠性，然後，當然，我們喜歡保持再生能源線，因為它有能力降低我們燃料的碳強度。正如您也所說，我們對專案溝通非常謹慎。在我們真正談論 FID 或 FID 之前，我們希望能更接近它們。

Perfect. Just a quick follow-up. We have seen some sanction relief on the Venezuelan side. You were buying from Chevron even before that and Chevron had been giving the indications that they could ramp up over there. So can you help us understand like what kind of volume -- incremental volumes could come to the market from the Venezuelan side in probably next 2 or 3 years?

完美的。只是快速跟進。我們看到委內瑞拉方面的製裁有所緩解。甚至在此之前，您就從雪佛龍購買了產品，而雪佛龍一直在暗示他們可以在那裡增加產量。那麼您能否幫助我們了解什麼樣的數量——增量數量可能會在未來 2 到 3 年內從委內瑞拉一側進入市場？

Yes, this is Gary. So if you look, there's about 250,000 barrels a day of exports in Venezuela, most of that volume is going to the Far East. But with the lifting of sanctions, it has the potential to make its way to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

是的，這是加里。因此，如果你看一下，委內瑞拉每天的出口量約為 25 萬桶，其中大部分出口到了遠東。但隨著制裁的解除，它有可能進入美國墨西哥灣沿岸。

The next question is coming from John Royall of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。

So we've talked about coastal light heavy dips and how they've tightened up pretty significantly. Can you remind us how much flexibility you have in your system to run lights versus heavy versus mediums?

我們已經討論了沿海輕微的大傾角以及它們是如何顯著收緊的。您能否提醒我們，您的系統在運行輕型、重型和中型方面有多大的靈活性？

John, this is Greg. So we can flex quite a bit. What you'll tend to see us do is when the medium grades look attractive, we'll ramp that up and kind of back down to both the lights and the heavies, conversely, when heavy sours get more attractive relative to the medium grades we'll ramp up the heavies. I don't remember the exact percentages. We can get those to you. I think they might actually be in our -- in IR deck yet. Page 30 there. But that tends to be what drives us to kind of swing between those different grades.

約翰，這是格雷格。所以我們可以靈活一些。你會傾向於看到我們做的是，當中等等級看起來很有吸引力時，我們會提高它的強度，然後再降低到輕度和重度，相反，當重度酸相對於我們的中等等級變得更有吸引力時，我們會這樣做。會加大重量。我不記得確切的百分比。我們可以把這些給你。我認為它們可能實際上已經在我們的 IR 平台中了。第 30 頁在那裡。但這往往是驅使我們在不同年級之間搖擺的原因。

Great. And then maybe you can talk about the beat and utilizations in 3Q. You didn't call out anything in particular, but you're above the high end and I think every region, but one. It seems like the system ran quite well. Are there any moving pieces to call out maybe maintenance getting pushed out or anything of that sort or is it just better-than-expected operations?

偉大的。然後也許你可以談談第三季的節奏和利用率。你沒有特別提到任何東西，但你高於高端，我認為每個地區，但只有一個。看起來系統運作得很好。是否有任何活動需要指出，可能是維護工作被推遲或類似的事情，或者只是運營好於預期？

I would say we didn't -- the third quarter is always going to be a period where you don't have a lot of turnaround activity. I mean some of it might leak over from the second or you might start a little bit going into the fourth. But system industry-wide, we're not unique in that sense. Most of your turnaround work is either done in the first and second or the fourth quarter. And so it should be a high utilization. And obviously, we've emphasized reliability got for the last, I don't know, more than a decade, we have the programs that we have. So you would expect us when we're not having turnarounds to have a pretty high level of utilization of our assets.

我想說我們沒有——第三季總是沒有太多周轉活動的時期。我的意思是，其中一些可能會從第二個洩漏出來，或者你可能會開始進入第四個。但從整個產業的系統來看，我們並不是獨一無二的。您的大部分週轉工作要么在第一季、第二季或第四季完成。所以它的利用率應該很高。顯然，我們強調了過去十多年來我們擁有的程序的可靠性。因此，當我們沒有周轉時，您會期望我們的資產利用率達到相當高的水平。

The next question is coming from Joe Laetsch of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Joe Laetsch。

So I wanted to start on the diesel side. So you talked about gasoline cracks, I don't know if you hit on diesel much, which has remained really strong here. So I was just curious what your thoughts on the setup for diesel here into the winter. We have low inventories in both the U.S. and Europe and last year, we kind of had a similar level of tightness and were bailed out by a warmer winter. So just curious on your thoughts on the setup for diesel margins.

所以我想從柴油方面開始。所以你談到了汽油裂紋，我不知道你是否經常談到柴油，柴油在這裡仍然非常強勁。所以我只是好奇你對冬季柴油設定有何看法。我們在美國和歐洲的庫存都很低，去年我們的庫存也有類似的緊張程度，但由於冬季變暖，我們的庫存得到了緩解。所以只是想知道您對柴油利潤率設定的想法。

Yes. So diesel demand remains very strong. I guess I mentioned diesel sales in our system are up about 8% year-over-year. Our view of the broader markets is that diesel demand in the U.S. is probably down about 1% year-to-date from where it was last year, and that's mainly due to the warmer winter we had last year. Our guys' estimate, we lost about 125,000 barrels a day of diesel demand due to the warmer weather. So inventories remain below the 5-year average level, demand remains good. So you're heading into winter with low inventories, and we would expect strong diesel cracks through the winter and could get very strong if we have a colder winter.

是的。因此柴油需求仍然非常強勁。我想我提到過我們系統中的柴油銷量年增長了約 8%。我們對更廣泛市場的看法是，美國的柴油需求今年迄今可能比去年下降約 1%，這主要是由於去年冬天變暖。我們的人員估計，由於天氣變暖，我們每天損失約 125,000 桶柴油需求。因此庫存仍低於5年平均水平，需求仍然良好。因此，進入冬季時庫存量較低，我們預計整個冬季柴油裂紋會很強烈，如果冬季較冷，柴油裂紋可能會變得非常強烈。

And then shifting gears a little bit. So you've talked a little bit about RD margins being pressured here. So I was just hoping you could touch on some of the regional dynamics that you're seeing and economics of selling into other states in the Coast or potentially Canada to offset in the lower LCFS prices that we've seen in California?

然後稍微換檔。所以你已經談到了研發利潤受到壓力的問題。所以我只是希望您能談談您所看到的一些區域動態以及向沿海其他州或可能向加拿大出售產品的經濟性，以抵消我們在加利福尼亞州看到的較低的 LCFS 價格？

Yes, we absolutely see. California has become kind of the ore of the RD market. We see more opportunity in Oregon, Washington and Canada as kind of the growth opportunities. And so we absolutely look to maximize our product sales into those markets. California continues to talk about raising the obligation for 2030. They sort of pushed off a lot of their -- they're still doing a lot of their conferences and workshops on that. We still fully expect that at some point, they are going to announce the changes to be effective sometime next year, and that will increase the LCFS price in California. So -- but in the meantime, we continue to look at -- again, you kind of mentioned that. We still have the advantages being on the Gulf Coast. Do you have access to all of the global feedstocks. You have access to all the global markets so it gives us a lot of capability to go to different markets. And we continue to see waste oils advantaged versus vegetable oils from a CI standpoint. So you look at that low-cost producer on the Gulf Coast, that just continues to be kind of the winning formula for being able to have flexibility to go to different markets in the RD Space.

是的，我們絕對看到了。加州已經成為研發市場的礦石。我們認為俄勒岡州、華盛頓州和加拿大有更多機會作為成長機會。因此，我們絕對希望最大限度地提高我們在這些市場的產品銷售量。加州繼續談論提高 2030 年的義務。他們有點推遲了很多——他們仍在就此舉行很多會議和研討會。我們仍然完全預計，在某個時候，他們將宣布這些變化將於明年某個時候生效，這將提高加州的 LCFS 價格。所以 - 但同時，我們繼續關注 - 再次，你提到了這一點。我們在墨西哥灣沿岸仍然具有優勢。您是否可以獲得全球所有原料？您可以進入所有全球市場，因此我們有能力進入不同的市場。從 CI 的角度來看，我們繼續看到廢油比植物油更有優勢。所以你看看墨西哥灣沿岸的低成本生產商，這仍然是能夠靈活地進入研發空間的不同市場的致勝秘訣。

The next question is coming from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Lane, first question is for you is just -- it's been a couple of months since you stepped to the job as CEO. Just would love your perspective on early observations, recognizing the strategy has been very consistent and steady for a long time, and you've been a big part of it. But early observations as the new leader of the organization and key strategic priorities that we haven't really talked about here on the call thus far.

萊恩，第一個問題是問你的——自從你擔任執行長以來已經有幾個月了。只是希望您對早期觀察的看法，並認識到該策略長期以來一直非常一致和穩定，並且您一直是其中的重要組成部分。但作為該組織新領導者的早期觀察和關鍵策略優先事項，我們到目前為止還沒有在電話會議上真正討論過。

[Gary] has been a couple of years, Neil. I'm just -- but it's been great. You always got to remember, I was an integral part of really Joe's team really from the beginning of his CEO team. and as you've mentioned, it's been a very successful one. So are there things that I'm trying to do maybe a little bit differently, I'd say I put my thumb on the scale on certain issues maybe a little bit and maybe unweighted others. But largely speaking, our strategy is the same because it was successful and it's currently successful. I don't know that I have any (inaudible) plans to deviate from that. Obviously, the world can change and we respond accordingly. But the world looks at least -- this business looks a whole alike, like it did a year ago. So our outlook is pretty much unchanged.

[加里]已經好幾年了，尼爾。我只是——但這很棒。你一定要記住，從喬的執行長團隊一開始，我就是他團隊中不可或缺的一部分。正如你所提到的，這是一個非常成功的活動。那麼，我是否正在嘗試做一些不同的事情，我想說，我在某些問題上可能會稍微考慮一下，而在其他問題上可能會不考慮。但總的來說，我們的策略是相同的，因為它曾經是成功的，而且目前也是成功的。我不知道我有任何（聽不清楚）計劃來偏離這一點。顯然，世界可能會發生變化，我們也會做出相對應的反應。但世界看起來至少——這家企業看起來一模一樣，就像一年前一樣。所以我們的前景幾乎沒有改變。

Now that's -- we definitely see the consistency. The second question is -- it's a very -- it's a smaller part of your business, but it's always -- you can create volatility in earnings of ethanol. Just curious on your outlook for that business and -- where do you -- how far away are we from mid-cycle as you think about it?

現在，我們確實看到了一致性。第二個問題是──它只是你業務的一小部分，但它總是──你可以造成乙醇收益的波動。只是好奇您對該業務的前景，以及您認為我們距離中期週期還有多遠？

Yes. The ethanol obviously has had a good year this year with lower corn prices and low natural gas prices. So the ethanol margins have been, I would say, higher than what we would call a mid-cycle but it's not really exceptionally higher than mid-cycle. It's actually been fairly strong. But I would say, looking back historically, ethanol is always kind of a steady drumbeat business. We do see that the biggest opportunity here is still this low-carbon opportunity and some of the growth in other markets in the world. Again, we are 30% of the export capability of ethanol for the U.S. And so we see this interest in the world, lowering its carbon footprint by increasing its ethanol blending. So Canada, has become an E10 country almost overnight. There's talk about that going to E15 next year. We're seeing other countries that are starting to look at incremental ethanol blending. And then there's a lot of interest in ethanol as a feedstock into chemicals and solvents and paints. And so I think we still see a lot of good opportunities for ethanol globally that I think will keep us in a very strong margin environment. And then obviously, I mean, so much of that depends on weather, ultimately. I mean, obviously, no one can control that. But the U.S. is a big ag country. We have a lot of capability to grow a lot of corn. And so as long as that holds up, then I think ethanol has got a good outlook.

是的。由於玉米價格和天然氣價格較低，今年乙醇顯然表現良好。因此，我想說，乙醇利潤率高於我們所說的中期週期，但實際上並沒有特別高於中期週期。其實已經相當強了。但我想說，回顧歷史，乙醇始終是一項穩定的業務。我們確實看到，這裡最大的機會仍然是低碳機會以及世界其他市場的一些成長。同樣，我們占美國乙醇出口能力的 30%，因此我們看到了世界各地的這種興趣，透過增加乙醇混合來降低其碳足跡。所以加拿大幾乎一夕之間就成為了E10國家。有傳言說明年將舉辦 E15。我們看到其他國家開始考慮增量乙醇混合。此外，人們對乙醇作為化學品、溶劑和油漆的原料也很感興趣。因此，我認為我們在全球範圍內仍然看到乙醇有許多良好的機會，這將使我們保持在非常強勁的利潤環境中。顯然，我的意思是，最終很大程度上取決於天氣。我的意思是，顯然，沒有人可以控制這一點。但美國是一個農業大國。我們有能力種植大量玉米。因此，只要這種情況持續下去，我認為乙醇的前景就很好。

The next question is coming from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Two, hopefully, the quick question. First, maybe either is for Lane or Gary. Look like ethane and naphtha branding, economy right now is really good. With the Winter Grade, if we're looking at your system, what is the incremental percentage of the gasoline supply will increase as a result of those branding for you versus less quarter third quarter the level over the fourth quarter last year, whatever is the comparison you want to use? And secondly, that I want to see what is -- if you can you give us any color that how's the turnaround cycle look like for your next year and whether that compared to this year, going to be about the same, lighter, heavier also? And also that whether you think the industry is going to have a normal cycle next year after the catch up this year or that the catch-up is going to continue into next year?

希望是兩個簡單的問題。首先，也許萊恩或加里都適合。看起來像乙烷和石腦油品牌，現在的經濟確實很好。對於冬季等級，如果我們查看您的系統，由於這些品牌的影響，汽油供應的增量百分比將增加多少，而第三季度的水平比去年第四季度的水平要少，無論是什麼您想使用比較嗎？其次，我想看看是什麼 - 如果你能給我們任何顏色，明年的周轉週期是什麼樣的，以及與今年相比是否會大致相同，更輕，也更重？還有，您認為產業在今年的追趕之後明年會進入正常週期還是會持續到明年？

So if I understand correctly, the first was how much really does the gasoline pool well as you go to higher RVP gasoline. Is that what you were asking, Paul?

因此，如果我理解正確的話，首先是當您使用更高 RVP 汽油時，汽油池的實際效果如何。保羅，這就是你問的嗎？

Yes. I mean that every year that when we go to the Winter Grade, obviously, you see more branding, but that with the economic of light is actually very attractive for the branding. And I assume that given the Winter Grade, it will also allow you to have more flexibility than you want to, brand as a (inaudible) naphtha into the system and it looks like it's very economic also.

是的。我的意思是，每年當我們進入冬季等級時，顯然，您會看到更多的品牌，但光的經濟實際上對品牌非常有吸引力。我認為考慮到冬季等級，它還可以讓您擁有比您想要的更多的靈活性，將其作為（聽不清楚）石腦油打入系統，而且看起來也非常經濟。

Yes, Paul, this is Greg. So you're right. You definitely increase the amount of primarily butane that you blend into the gasoline. It ranges depending on which region you're in and the change in specs, it's in the 5% to 10% range. And then you're right that to the extent that butane has a higher octane than the pool, it does allow you to put more of the lower octane component into the blend, naphtha being one of those right now that looks pretty attractive.

是的，保羅，這是格雷格。所以你是對的。您肯定會增加混合到汽油中的主要丁烷的量。其範圍取決於您所在的地區和規格的變化，在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內。然後你是對的，就丁烷的辛烷值高於池的程度而言，它確實允許你在混合物中加入更多的較低辛烷值成分，石腦油是目前看起來相當有吸引力的成分之一。

Sorry. Please go ahead.

對不起。請繼續。

No, I was just going to answer you -- I think it was your same question around turnarounds. We sort of have a policy for a while that we don't give any real outlook on our turnaround or the industry turnaround behavior. So...

不，我只是想回答你——我認為這與你關於扭虧為盈的問題是一樣的。我們有一段時間有一項政策，即我們對我們的轉型或產業轉型行為沒有給出任何真正的前景。所以...

And if I can just go back into the earlier question about -- great answer. Any kind of, say, because that when it is more economic, it tends to brand more, but on the other hand, gasoline [target] is not great right now. So I'm trying to understand that how the 2 years going to be impacting in your thinking or your (inaudible).

如果我能回到之前的問題——很好的答案。比如說，任何一種，因為當它更經濟時，它往往會更多地品牌化，但另一方面，汽油[目標]現在並不好。所以我試著去了解這兩​​年將如何影響你的思維或你的（聽不清楚）。

I think -- if I understand you Paul, back to winter blending. Obviously, naphtha is cheap, butane is relatively cheap. And we always look at economic signals to try to determine how much gasoline are producing, (inaudible) and that compares to sort of the reformulated grade, they might require or less butane. And then there are specs that you hit, I mean you would think you would get near 10% in butane in full, but a lot of times we hit other specifications and the finished gasoline besides RVP. And so I mean, it's a fair...

我想——如果我理解你的話，保羅，回到冬天的混合。顯然，石腦油便宜，丁烷相對便宜。我們總是關注經濟訊號，試圖確定汽油產量（聽不清楚），與重新配製的等級相比，它們可能需要或更少的丁烷。然後是你達到的規格，我的意思是你會認為你會得到接近 10% 的丁烷，但很多時候我們達到了 RVP 之外的其他規格和成品汽油。所以我的意思是，這是一個公平的...

The next question is coming from Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

I wanted to first go back to uses of cash or returns of cash, I should say. And I know Valero has a 40% to 50% payout ratio. It seems like you're returning a majority of the excess cash post dividends via buyback, maybe 2/3 of that excess cash. Is that kind of how we should think about return of cash moving forward essentially all of the excess cash or the majority of it beyond what you pay out in the dividend is going to be going towards the buyback for the foreseeable future. And I think some color around that could help the market bring some of that potential future buyback value forward? And I have a follow-up.

我應該說，我想先回到現金的使用或現金的回饋。我知道 Valero 的派息率為 40% 到 50%。看來您透過回購返還了股利後大部分超額現金，也許是超額現金的 2/3。這就是我們應該如何考慮現金回報的方式嗎？基本上所有多餘的現金或超出您支付的股息的大部分現金都將用於在可預見的未來進行回購。我認為一些顏色可以幫助市場帶來一些潛在的未來回購價值？我有一個後續行動。

Jason, this is Lane. Look directionally you're correct, but we still have to -- some of our cash obviously goes to sustaining our asset. So that's something that we're committed to. So we want to make sure that we're, a, that we are -- we had the earnings potential, our assets stay in a posture that we can always generate the right earnings with the market conditions and second, we maintain the dividend. And then we do believe we still have this sort of $0.5 billion to $1 billion of strategic capital to the extent, all that's done, all the excess cash will go to buybacks.

傑森，這是萊恩。從方向上看，你是正確的，但我們仍然必須——我們的一些現金顯然用於維持我們的資產。這就是我們致力於的事情。因此，我們希望確保我們有獲利潛力，我們的資產保持在能夠根據市場條件產生適當收益的狀態，其次，我們維持股息。然後我們確實相信我們仍然擁有 5 億至 10 億美元的戰略資本，在完成所有這些之後，所有多餘的現金都將用於回購。

All right. Great. And my second one is kind of on the strategic growth outlook. We've seen some of your larger peers use equity to buy up companies recently? And if I think about some of the potential areas you could expand into like chems, like low carbon fuels, those valuations have come down relative to where Valero trades. I don't know Valero doesn't typically use the equity to acquire other companies. But given what's going on with Navigator Pipeline and looking at your potential future growth opportunities, are you taking a closer look at strategic M&A and using equity given your stock and refiners in general have held up pretty well relative to other potential step-out opportunities?

好的。偉大的。我的第二個問題是關於策略成長前景。我們最近看到你們的一些較大的同業利用股權收購公司？如果我考慮一些你可以擴展到的潛在領域，例如化學物質、低碳燃料，那麼這些估值相對於瓦萊羅交易的領域已經有所下降。我不知道瓦萊羅通常不會使用這些股權來收購其他公司。但考慮到 Navigator Pipeline 的情況以及您未來潛在的成長機會，考慮到您的股票和煉油廠相對於其他潛在的退出機會總體表現良好，您是否會更仔細地考慮策略併購和利用股權？

This is Lane again. I would say that we look at all these opportunities and all the business lines that I alluded to earlier. And we have an entire group, our innovation group that's constantly looking at how can we bolt-on and leverage our existing footprint, which, obviously, we have a big footprint in ethanol, we have a pretty big footprint in renewable diesel. And we're also looking at everything else. Everything is on the table. We're always looking at it, but we are also very careful in terms of how we talk about it and how we're going to announce things. In terms of how we finance it, it's just a matter of when we -- as the world evolves, we'll come up with the best way that we think to finance something. But obviously, all these things have to go through sort of our investment gated process.

這又是萊恩。我想說的是，我們會關注我之前提到的所有這些機會和所有業務線。我們有一整個團隊，我們的創新團隊，不斷研究如何補充和利用我們現有的足跡，顯然，我們在乙醇方面有很大的足跡，我們在再生柴油方面也有相當大的足跡。我們也在考慮其他一切。一切都在桌面上。我們一直在關注它，但我們在如何談論它以及如何宣布事情方面也非常謹慎。就我們如何融資而言，問題只是隨著世界的發展，我們何時會想出我們認為最好的融資方式。但顯然，所有這些事情都必須經過我們的投資門控流程。

The next question is coming from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Yes. Maybe to follow up on Mr. Gabelman's question there. If we think about acquisitions, latest news says CITGO is potentially going to be on the auction block beginning of next year. So just curious how you think about greater footprint within refining as any kind of a possibility.

是的。也許是為了跟進加貝爾曼先生的問題。如果我們考慮收​​購，最新消息指出 CITGO 可能會在明年初進行拍賣。所以只是好奇你如何看待煉油領域更大的足跡作為任何一種可能性。

So Roger, this is Lane. So as you know our history, we were a big consolidator in the industry going back to 2000s. That to really our last major acquisition was sort of circa 2013. That's when our base became somewhat like it looks today. So we understand probably as well as any operator out there would it take to buy something or to merge something and get it on our system and all the costs associated with it. And we always get everything that we think within reason. I mean we always analyze everything and -- we haven't bought anything like I said, since 2013, any refining assets. You never say never. We look at everything, and we'll again, like I alluded to on Jason's question, we'll run it through our processes and figure out whether anything that makes sense for us or not.

羅傑，這是萊恩。如您所知，我們的歷史可以追溯到 2000 年代，我們就是該行業的大型整合者。我們最後一次重大收購是在 2013 年左右。那時我們的基地變得有點像今天的樣子。因此，我們可能和任何運營商一樣了解購買某些東西或合併某些東西並將其放入我們的系統以及與之相關的所有成本。而我們總是得到我們認為合理的一切。我的意思是，我們總是分析一切——自 2013 年以來，我們沒有像我所說的那樣購買任何煉油資產。你永遠不會說永遠。我們會審視一切，然後，就像我在傑森的問題上提到的那樣，我們將透過我們的流程來運行它，並找出對我們來說是否有意義的事情。

Yes. I'd imagine the data (inaudible).

是的。我想像一下數據（聽不清楚）。

(inaudible) clear on that, Roger. They got to compete with everything else, including buyback, right? So.

（聽不清楚）這一點很清楚，羅傑。他們必須與其他一切競爭，包括回購，對吧？所以。

Right, right. No. I mean the data room is going to have to be interesting at a minimum. Second question I have, it's unrelated, but kind of a follow-up on some of the things going on the renewable fuel side. We've seen a lot of downward moves or we saw a strong downward move, I should say, in the D4, D6 RINs kind of latter part of Q3 and the early part of Q4. It looks like the market is more or less sort of adjusting to that on some of the feedstock and other issues. But I was just curious if you all have any read-throughs on what cause that decline and whether or not this decline sort of reflects current situation? Or is there more downside risk to RINs given the mandate versus production numbers and obviously an increasing volume of renewable diesel coming in '24 from the industry?

是的是的。不，我的意思是數據室至少必須是有趣的。我的第二個問題，它是不相關的，但有點像可再生燃料方面發生的一些事情的後續行動。我應該說，在第三季後期和第四季初期的 D4、D6 RIN 中，我們看到了很多下行走勢，或者說我們看到了強烈的下行走勢。看起來市場或多或少正在針對某些原料和其他問題進行調整。但我只是好奇你們是否都了解過下降的原因以及這種下降是否反映了當前的情況？或者考慮到授權與產量以及 24 年該行業可再生柴油數量的顯著增加，RIN 是否存在更大的下行風險？

Yes. I think as I mentioned before, there's this kind of constant talk about oncoming production, increased rates, start-ups, projects that has always said at some point the D4 is going to be under pressure especially since the EPA did not raise the D4 obligation in their last set rule. So I think though, is -- and then we combine that with there is this kind of a rush, I think, look like to me kind of a rush to sell RINs in the third quarter with that narrative, combined with that Russian announcement that they were going to ban exports, which kind of quickly evaporated. So there's, I think, a kind of a more of a temporary view that the D4 RIN was going to drop even more. And like you've observed, it's kind of recovered and fat prices have also since adjusted. We could see that biodiesel and veg oil, RD is negative now. That's one of the things we've always said is that the lower CI waste oil, play was always going to be more advantageous. So even at these lower credit values, we're still the advantage platform.

是的。我認為正如我之前提到的，人們不斷談論即將到來的生產、提高利率、新創公司、項目，這些項目總是說在某個時候 D4 將面臨壓力，特別是因為 EPA 沒有提高 D4 義務在他們最後制定的規則中。所以我認為，然後我們將這種情況結合起來，我認為，在我看來，在第三季度急於出售 RIN 的敘述，再加上俄羅斯的公告，他們打算禁止出口，但這種禁令很快就消失了。因此，我認為，有一種臨時觀點認為 D4 RIN 將會下降更多。正如您所觀察到的，它已經有所恢復，脂肪價格也隨之調整。我們可以看到生物柴油和植物油的RD現在是負值。我們一直說的一件事是，CI 越低的廢油，遊戲總是會更有利。因此，即使信用值較低，我們仍然是優勢平台。

So as you go into 2024, obviously, obligations [already set]. It's hard to tell exactly where that's going to go. There's no doubt that RD will continue to grow. We do see that for us, you're going to see RD continue to grow, as we talked before, Canada is a big outlet, which takes a lot of this RIN exposure away and then you also obviously have the SAF project come on, where we'll diversify into a different market. And so -- and then and if for some reason, SAF doesn't work, that product also meets Arctic diesel grades that again, go to Nordic countries and Canada. So there's no doubt that there's going to be a continued pressure on the RINs for both the D4 and D6 but our strategy has always been -- there's other markets that you can minimize the impact of that. And then with our platform, we're still the most advantaged from a cost and CI standpoint.

因此，當你進入 2024 年時，顯然，義務[已經確定]。很難確切地說出它會去哪裡。毫無疑問，研發將持續成長。我們確實看到，對我們來說，你會看到 RD 繼續增長，正如我們之前談到的，加拿大是一個很大的出口，這帶走了很多 RIN 曝光，然後你顯然也有 SAF 項目開始，我們將多元化進入不同的市場。因此，如果由於某種原因，SAF 不起作用，該產品也符合北極柴油等級，再次銷往北歐國家和加拿大。因此，毫無疑問，D4 和 D6 的 RIN 都會面臨持續的壓力，但我們的策略始終是——您可以在其他市場將其影響降至最低。然後，透過我們的平台，從成本和 CI 的角度來看，我們仍然是最有優勢的。

I appreciate that coastal advantage as always.

我一如既往地欣賞海岸優勢。

Our last question for today is coming from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的馬修布萊爾。

Circling back to the RD margins in Q3, are you able to quantify the impact from DGD 2 fire on the reported $0.65 gallon EBITDA margin?

回到第三季的 RD 利潤，您是否能夠量化 DGD 2 火災對報告的 0.65 美元加侖 EBITDA 利潤的影響？

No, we usually don't give that kind of detail. I would say it wasn't large, just kind of leave it at that.

不，我們通常不會提供此類細節。我想說它並不大，就這樣吧。

Sounds good. And then on the refining side, could you talk about your product exports in Q3 and so far into Q4? And do you expect any negative impact from this announcement from Mexico a couple of days that you're looking to restrict refined product imports into the country?

聽起來不錯。然後在煉油方面，您能談談第三季和第四季迄今的產品出口嗎？您預計墨西哥幾天後宣布限製成品油進口會產生負面影響嗎？

Yes, I'll take the first part of it and then let Rich Walsh handle the second part. Yes, our exports, if you look at the exports in the third quarter, we did 389,000 barrels a day, 281 of distillate, 108 of gasoline. Based on second quarter, the volumes are up based on historic numbers, they trended up as well to our typical export locations. Most of the gasoline went to Latin America, about 70% of the diesel in Latin America and about 30% to Europe. And those are remaining at those levels as we move into the fourth quarter.

是的，我會處理第一部分，然後讓 Rich Walsh 處理第二部分。是的，我們的出口，如果你看看第三季的出口，我們每天出口 389,000 桶，其中 281 桶餾分油，108 桶汽油。根據第二季的歷史數據，數量增加，我們典型的出口地點的數量也呈現上升趨勢。汽油大部分銷往拉丁美洲，約70%的柴油銷往拉丁美洲，約30%銷往歐洲。當我們進入第四季度時，這些仍保持在這些水平。

This is Rich. I'll just answer the second half of it. On this decree to [restricting] issue, it's actually rightly aimed at import smuggling that's going on. So you have individuals that are trying to bring product gasoline diesel into Mexico, but describing it as something that has a lower tariff like a tariff, something like that and importing it in. And that's resulting in them getting a lower tariff. So this decree is really focusing on that. For Valero, we're properly importing all of our gasoline and products, and we're paying the full and proper tariff for it. So -- and then also all of our fuel comes out of our own system, and it's all high-quality (inaudible). So we have a lot of interaction with the Mexican authorities. They're aware of the legitimacy of our operation. And so we don't expect this initiative to be an issue for us.

這是里奇。我只回答後半部。關於這個[限制]問題的法令，實際上是針對正在發生的進口走私行為的。因此，有些人試圖將汽油柴油產品帶入墨西哥，但將其描述為關稅較低的產品，例如關稅，然後將其進口。這導致他們獲得較低的關稅。所以這個法令確實是針對這一點的。對於瓦萊羅來說，我們正在正確進口我們所有的汽油和產品，並且我們正在為其支付全額和適當的關稅。因此，我們所有的燃料都來自我們自己的系統，而且都是高品質的（聽不清楚）。因此我們與墨西哥當局有許多互動。他們知道我們行動的合法性。因此，我們預計這項措施不會成為我們的問題。

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments.

謝謝。現在，我想將發言權交還給 Bhullar 先生以供結束發言。

Thanks, Donna. I appreciate everyone joining us today. And as always, if you have any further questions, please feel free to contact the IR team on the call. Thanks again, and everyone, have a great day.

謝謝，唐娜。我感謝今天大家加入我們。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時透過電話聯繫 IR 團隊。再次感謝大家，祝福大家有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或登出網路廣播，然後享受剩下的一天。