瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Valero's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Bhullar. You may begin.

您好，歡迎來到 Valero 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝你，Bhullar 先生。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Joe Gorder, our Chairman and CEO; Lane Riggs, our President and COO; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO, and Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

各位早上好，歡迎來到 Valero Energy Corporation 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Joe Gorder； Lane Riggs，我們的總裁兼首席運營官；我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Jason Fraser 和我們的執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Gary Simmons；以及 Valero 高級管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您還沒有收到收益發布並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站 investorvalero.com 上找到一份。收益發布還附有表格，這些表格提供了有關我們業務部門的額外財務信息，以及本次電話會議中提到的調整後指標的對賬和披露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請隨時在電話會議後聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future. Our forward-looking statements intended to be covered by safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our filings with the SEC. Now I'll turn the call over to Joe for opening remarks.

我現在想請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，它表示新聞稿和本次電話會議中的聲明陳述了公司或管理層對未來的期望或預測。我們的前瞻性陳述旨在納入聯邦證券法的安全港條款。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的那些因素。現在，我將把電話轉給 Joe，讓他發表開場白。

Thanks, Homer, and good morning, everyone. We finished the year strong with our refineries operating at 97% capacity utilization in a favorable refining margin environment. In fact, this is the highest refinery utilization for our refining system since 2018. I'm also proud to share that 2022 was the best year ever for combined employee and contractor safety, which is a testament to our long-standing commitment to safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations.

謝謝，荷馬，大家早上好。我們以 97% 的產能利用率在有利的煉油利潤率環境下以 97% 的產能利用率結束了這一年。事實上，這是自 2018 年以來我們煉油系統的最高煉油廠利用率。我也很自豪地與大家分享，2022 年是有史以來員工和承包商綜合安全最好的一年，這證明了我們長期以來對安全、可靠且對環境負責的操作。

As we saw during most of 2022, refining margins were supported by low product inventories, which resulted from the significant permanent global refinery shutdowns and the continued recovery in product demand. Our refining system also benefited from heavily discounted sour crude oils and fuel oils. These discounts were driven by increased sour crude oil supply, high freight rates and the impact from the IMO 2020 regulation for lower sulfur marine fuels.

正如我們在 2022 年的大部分時間裡所看到的那樣，煉油利潤率受到低產品庫存的支撐，這是由於全球煉油廠永久停產和產品需求持續復甦所致。我們的煉油系統還受益於大幅折扣的含硫原油和燃料油。這些折扣是由含硫原油供應增加、運費高以及 IMO 2020 低硫船用燃料法規的影響推動的。

Also, high natural gas prices in Europe incentivized European refiners to process sweet crude oils in lieu of sour crude oils, adding further pressure on sour crude oils. And our refining projects that are focused on reducing cost and improving margin capture remain on track. The Port Arthur Coker project is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2023 and will increase refinery's throughput capacity and ability to process incremental volumes of sour crude oils and residual feedstocks while also improving turnaround efficiency.

此外，歐洲的高天然氣價格促使歐洲煉油廠加工低硫原油代替含硫原油，進一步增加了含硫原油的壓力。我們專注於降低成本和提高利潤率的煉油項目仍在進行中。 Port Arthur Coker 項目預計將於 2023 年第二季度完工，將提高煉油廠的吞吐量和處理增量含硫原油和渣油原料的能力，同時提高周轉效率。

In our Renewable Diesel segment, we continue to expand operations, and we set another sales volume record in the fourth quarter with the successful commissioning and start-up of the new DGD Port Arthur renewable diesel plant in November. That project was completed under budget and ahead of schedule and brings DGD's annual production capacity to approximately 1.2 billion gallons of renewable diesel and 50 million gallons of renewable naphtha.

在我們的可再生柴油部門，我們繼續擴大業務，隨著新的 DGD 亞瑟港可再生柴油工廠於 11 月成功調試和啟動，我們在第四季度創造了另一個銷量記錄。該項目在預算內提前完成，使 DGD 的年生產能力達到約 12 億加侖可再生柴油和 5000 萬加侖可再生石腦油。

In the Ethanol segment, BlackRock and Navigators carbon sequestration project is still progressing on schedule and is expected to begin start-up activities in late 2024. We expect to be the anchor shipper with 8 of our ethanol plants connected to this system, which is expected to result in the production of a lower carbon intensity ethanol product that should significantly improve the margin profile and competitive positioning of the business.

在乙醇部分，BlackRock 和 Navigators 的碳封存項目仍在按計劃進行，預計將於 2024 年底開始啟動活動。我們預計將成為主要托運人，我們的 8 家乙醇工廠將連接到該系統，預計從而生產出碳強度較低的乙醇產品，從而顯著提高企業的利潤率和競爭定位。

And we continue to advance other low-carbon opportunities such as sustainable aviation fuel, renewable hydrogen and additional renewable naphtha and carbon sequestration projects. Our gated process helps ensure these projects meet our minimum return threshold. On the financial side, we continue to strengthen our balance sheet, paying off all of the incremental debt incurred during the pandemic and ending the year with a net debt-to-capitalization ratio of 21%.

我們繼續推進其他低碳機會，例如可持續航空燃料、可再生氫氣和其他可再生石腦油和碳封存項目。我們的門控流程有助於確保這些項目滿足我們的最低迴報門檻。在財務方面，我們繼續加強資產負債表，償還了大流行期間產生的所有增量債務，並以 21% 的淨債務資本化比率結束了這一年。

Looking ahead, we expect low product inventories and continued increase in product demand to support margins, particularly for U.S. coastal refiners that have crude oil supply and natural gas advantages relative to global refineries. And we continue to see large discounts for heavy sour crude oils and fuel oils that we can process in our system. The startup of the Port Arthur Coker is also expected to have a significant earnings contribution in the back half of 2023, supported by wide sour crude oil differentials and strong diesel margins.

展望未來，我們預計較低的產品庫存和產品需求的持續增長將支撐利潤率，特別是對於相對於全球煉油廠具有原油供應和天然氣優勢的美國沿海煉油廠而言。我們繼續看到我們可以在我們的系統中處理的重質含硫原油和燃料油的大幅折扣。在廣泛的含硫原油差異和強勁的柴油利潤率的支持下，亞瑟港焦化廠的啟動預計也將在 2023 年下半年對收益做出重大貢獻。

In closing, we're encouraged by the refining outlook, which, coupled with the contribution from our strategic growth projects in refining and renewable fuels, should continue to strengthen our long-term competitive advantage and shareholder returns. So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

最後，我們對煉油前景感到鼓舞，再加上我們在煉油和可再生燃料方面的戰略增長項目的貢獻，應該會繼續加強我們的長期競爭優勢和股東回報。所以，荷馬，我會把電話還給你。

Thanks, Joe. For the fourth quarter of 2022, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $3.1 billion or $8.15 per share compared to $1 billion or $2.46 per share for the fourth quarter of 2021. Fourth quarter 2022 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $3.2 billion or $8.45 per share compared to $988 million or $2.41 per share for the fourth quarter of 2021.

謝謝，喬。 2022 年第四季度，瓦萊羅股東應占淨收入為 31 億美元或每股 8.15 美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 10 億美元或每股 2.46 美元。2022 年第四季度調整後歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨收入為 32 億美元或 8.45 美元與 2021 年第四季度的 9.88 億美元或每股 2.41 美元相比。

For 2022, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $11.5 billion or $29.04 per share compared to $930 million or $2.27 per share in 2021. 2022 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $11.6 billion or $29.16 per share compared to $1.2 billion or $2.81 per share in 2021. For reconciliations to adjusted amounts, please refer to the earnings release and the accompanying financial tables.

2022 年，歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨收入為 115 億美元或每股 29.04 美元，而 2021 年為 9.3 億美元或每股 2.27 美元。2022 年調整後歸屬於瓦萊羅股東的淨收入為 116 億美元或每股 29.16 美元，而 2021 年為 12 億美元或每股 2.81 美元2021 年。有關調整後金額的調節，請參閱收益發布和隨附的財務表格。

The Refining segment reported $4.3 billion of operating income for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $1.3 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021. Adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $4.4 billion compared to $1.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021.

煉油部門報告的 2022 年第四季度營業收入為 43 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 13 億美元。2022 年第四季度調整後營業收入為 44 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 11 億美元。

Refining throughput volumes in the fourth quarter of 2022 averaged 3 million barrels per day. Throughput capacity utilization was 97% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Refining cash operating expenses of $5 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022 were $0.14 per barrel higher than the fourth quarter of 2021, primarily attributed to higher natural gas prices.

2022 年第四季度的煉油吞吐量平均為每天 300 萬桶。 2022 年第四季度產能利用率為 97%。2022 年第四季度煉油現金運營費用為每桶 5 美元，比 2021 年第四季度高出每桶 0.14 美元，這主要歸因於天然氣價格上漲。

Renewable Diesel segment operating income was $261 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $150 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. Renewable Diesel sales volumes averaged 2.4 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2022, which was 851,000 gallons per day higher than the fourth quarter of 2021. The higher sales volumes were due to the impact of additional volumes from the DGD St. Charles plant expansion and the fourth quarter 2022 start-up of the DGD Port Arthur plant.

2022 年第四季度可再生柴油部門營業收入為 2.61 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 1.5 億美元。2022 年第四季度可再生柴油銷量平均每天 240 萬加侖，比 2022 年第四季度高出 851,000 加侖/天2021 年第四季度。銷量增加是由於 DGD 聖查爾斯工廠擴建和 DGD 亞瑟港工廠 2022 年第四季度啟動帶來的額外銷量的影響。

The Ethanol segment reported $7 million of operating income for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $474 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. Adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $69 million compared to $475 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.1 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2022. The higher operating income in the fourth quarter of 2021 was primarily attributed to multiyear high ethanol prices due to strong demand and low inventories.

乙醇部門報告的 2022 年第四季度營業收入為 700 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 4.74 億美元。2022 年第四季度調整後營業收入為 6900 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 4.75 億美元。乙醇2022 年第四季度的平均產量為每天 410 萬加侖。2021 年第四季度的營業收入增加主要是由於強勁的需求和低庫存導致乙醇價格多年來居高不下。

For the fourth quarter of 2022, G&A expenses were $282 million and net interest expense was $137 million. G&A expenses were $934 million in 2022. Depreciation and amortization expense was $633 million and income tax expense was $1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022. The annual effective tax rate was 22% for 2022. Net cash provided by operating activities was $4.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 and $12.6 billion for the full year.

2022 年第四季度，G&A 費用為 2.82 億美元，淨利息費用為 1.37 億美元。 2022 年 G&A 費用為 9.34 億美元。2022 年第四季度折舊和攤銷費用為 6.33 億美元，所得稅費用為 10 億美元。2022 年年度有效稅率為 22%。經營活動提供的淨現金為 41 億美元2022 年第四季度和全年 126 億美元。

Excluding the unfavorable change in working capital of $9 million in the fourth quarter and $1.6 billion in 2022 and the other joint venture member share of DGD's net cash provided by operating activities, excluding changes in DGD's working capital adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $4 billion for the fourth quarter and $13.8 billion for the full year.

不包括第四季度營運資金的不利變化 900 萬美元和 2022 年的 16 億美元以及其他合資企業成員在 DGD 經營活動提供的淨現金中的份額，不包括 DGD 經營活動提供的營運資本調整後淨現金的變化為 4 美元第四季度為 100 億美元，全年為 138 億美元。

Regarding investing activities, we made $640 million of capital investments in the fourth quarter of 2022, of which $349 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and $291 million was for growing the business. Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture members share of DGD and those related to other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $538 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 and $2.3 billion for the year, which is higher than our annual guidance primarily due to project spend timing on the Port Arthur Coker project and the accelerated completion of the DGD Port Arthur plant.

在投資活動方面，我們在 2022 年第四季度進行了 6.4 億美元的資本投資，其中 3.49 億美元用於維持業務，包括周轉、催化劑和監管合規的成本，2.91 億美元用於發展業務。不包括歸屬於 DGD 其他合資成員的資本投資以及與其他可變利益實體相關的資本投資，2022 年第四季度歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資為 5.38 億美元，全年為 23 億美元，高於我們的年度指導主要是由於 Port Arthur Coker 項目的項目支出時間和 DGD Port Arthur 工廠的加速完工。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $2.2 billion to our stockholders in the fourth quarter of 2022 and $6.1 billion in the year, resulting in a 2022 payout ratio of 45% of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities through dividends and stock buybacks. With respect to our balance sheet, we completed additional debt reduction transactions in the fourth quarter that reduced Valero's debt by $442 million through opportunistic open market repurchases.

轉向融資活動。我們在 2022 年第四季度向股東返還了 22 億美元，全年向股東返還了 61 億美元，因此 2022 年的派息率為經營活動通過股息和股票回購提供的調整後淨現金的 45%。關於我們的資產負債表，我們在第四季度完成了額外的債務減免交易，通過機會性公開市場回購將 Valero 的債務減少了 4.42 億美元。

As Joe noted earlier, this reduction, combined with a series of debt reduction and refinancing transactions since the second half of 2021, have collectively reduced Valero's debt by over $4 billion. We ended the year with $9.2 billion of total debt, $2.4 billion of finance lease obligations and $4.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents was approximately 21%, down from the pandemic high of 40% at the end of March 2021, which was largely the result of the debt incurred during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. And we ended the year well capitalized with $5.4 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

正如喬之前指出的那樣，此次減債，加上自 2021 年下半年以來的一系列債務減免和再融資交易，使瓦萊羅的債務總共減少了超過 40 億美元。到年底，我們的債務總額為 92 億美元，融資租賃債務為 24 億美元，現金和現金等價物為 49 億美元。債務與資本化比率（扣除現金和現金等價物）約為 21%，低於 2021 年 3 月底流行病高點 40%，這主要是由於在 COVID- 19大流行。我們在年底時資本充足，可用流動資金為 54 億美元，不包括現金。

Turning to guidance. We expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2023 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts and joint venture investments. About $1.5 billion of that is allocated to sustaining the business and $500 million to growth. For modeling our first quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.59 million to 1.64 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 415,000 to 435,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 245,000 to 265,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 415,000 to 435,000 barrels per day.

轉向指導。我們預計 2023 年歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括用於扭虧為盈、催化劑和合資企業投資的支出。其中約 15 億美元用於維持業務，5 億美元用於增長。為了模擬我們第一季度的運營，我們預計煉油吞吐量將在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸每天 159 萬至 164 萬桶；中部大陸每天 415,000 至 435,000 桶；西海岸每天 245,000 至 265,000 桶；和北大西洋，每天 415,000 至 435,000 桶。

We expect refining cash operating expenses in the first quarter to be approximately $4.95 per barrel. With respect to the Renewable Diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 2023. Operating expenses in 2023 should be $0.49 per gallon, which includes $0.19 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization. Our Ethanol segment is expected to produce 4 million gallons per day in the first quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.51 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們預計第一季度煉油現金運營費用約為每桶 4.95 美元。關於可再生柴油部分，我們預計 2023 年的銷量約為 12 億加侖。2023 年的運營費用應為每加侖 0.49 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.19 美元的折舊和攤銷等非現金成本。我們的乙醇部門預計在第一季度每天生產 400 萬加侖。運營費用平均應為每加侖 0.51 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，如折舊和攤銷。

For the first quarter, net interest expense should be about $130 million and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $655 million. For 2023, we expect G&A expenses, excluding corporate depreciation, to be approximately $925 million. That concludes our opening remarks.

第一季度，淨利息支出應約為 1.3 億美元，折舊和攤銷總費用應約為 6.55 億美元。 2023 年，我們預計 G&A 費用（不包括公司折舊）約為 9.25 億美元。我們的開場白到此結束。

Before we open the call to questions, please adhere to our protocol of limiting each turn in the Q&A to 2 questions. If you have more than 2 questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits. Please respect this request to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

在我們開始提問之前，請遵守我們的協議，將問答環節的每一輪限制為 2 個問題。如果您有 2 個以上的問題，請在時間允許的情況下重新加入隊列。請尊重此請求，以確保其他來電者有時間提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question is coming from Theresa Chen of Barclays.

第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

My first question is related to your macro outlook over the near term. And with respect to Russia, how do you see the EU embargo or price cap on Russian products imports playing out specifically to the diesel as well as the geo situation?

我的第一個問題與您近期的宏觀前景有關。至於俄羅斯，您如何看待歐盟對俄羅斯產品進口的禁運或價格上限，特別是對柴油以及地緣局勢的影響？

Theresa, this is Gary. I think, initially, we felt like even with the ramp-up in sanctions, you would just see a rebalancing of trade flows much like we saw with crude and resids. Most people in the trade today think that the sanctions will actually result in a reduction in Russian refinery utilization, and you'll see lower exports of VGO and diesel coming out of Russia when the sanctions take place.

特蕾莎，這是加里。我認為，最初，我們覺得即使製裁力度加大，你也會看到貿易流量的重新平衡，就像我們在原油和渣油中看到的那樣。今天業內大多數人認為，制裁實際上會導致俄羅斯煉油廠利用率下降，您會看到製裁生效後俄羅斯出口的 VGO 和柴油會減少。

Got it. And clearly, there's been a focus on an elevated amount of maintenance in the first half of this year, plus some unplanned downtime. How big of an impact do you think this will be on near-term refining economics? How real do you think this is? And what are the implications on your own refining earnings taking into account that you have your own maintenance program to work through as well?

知道了。顯然，今年上半年的重點是維護量增加，以及一些計劃外停機。您認為這將對近期煉油經濟產生多大影響？你覺得這有多真實？考慮到您還有自己的維護計劃要完成，這對您自己的煉油收益有何影響？

Yes. So the market is very, very tight. We're looking at total light product inventories 55 million barrels below the 5-year average. And so typically, this is a period of time where you see restocking take place. And with the winter storm outage and high maintenance activity, we just haven't been able to restock inventories which sets the year up very nicely in terms of refinery margin perspective.

是的。所以市場非常非常緊張。我們預計輕質產品總庫存比 5 年平均水平低 5500 萬桶。因此，通常情況下，這是您看到補貨發生的時間段。由於冬季風暴停運和高維護活動，我們無法補充庫存，這在煉油廠利潤率方面為今年奠定了良好的基礎。

And Theresa, this is Lane. So as we've been pretty consistent, we don't do a lot of commentary around our turnaround activity. But nonetheless, I mean, the first quarter and third quarters are heavy turnaround periods when we have turnarounds. And so that's sort of seasonally, that's how we execute our maintenance.

特蕾莎，這是萊恩。因此，由於我們一直非常一致，所以我們不會圍繞我們的周轉活動做很多評論。但是，我的意思是，第一季度和第三季度是我們出現轉機的重要轉機期。所以這是季節性的，這就是我們執行維護的方式。

The next question is coming from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Joe, I don't know who you want to direct this too, but I'm curious about Coker economics. When you laid out the original plan to bring this online, we were in a very different diesel resid market than we are today. So could you -- as you see the earnings power of that facility as it stands, maybe at strip or however you want to characterize it, can you give us an idea what your expectations are relative to what it looked like when you first set out the project? And I've got a follow-up, please.

喬，我也不知道你想要誰來指導這個，但我對科克經濟學很好奇。當您制定將其上線的最初計劃時，我們所處的柴油渣油市場與今天截然不同。你也可以 - 當你看到該設施目前的盈利能力時，可能是脫衣舞，或者你想描述它的特徵，你能告訴我們你的期望與你第一次出發時的樣子有關嗎該項目？我有後續行動，請。

Yes. No, Doug, we'll let Lane take a crack at this one.

是的。不，道格，我們會讓萊恩來解決這個問題。

Doug, It's -- so just to remind everybody, our FID, I think, was $325 million, that's sort of based on mid-cycle. We sort of look back at it in sort of 2018, I think the EBITDA was around $420 million. If you use sort of fourth quarter, it's in the order of probably $700 million, maybe a little bit more dollars. So if you use those kind of margins. So obviously, it's -- I don't know if we have incredible foresight, but it's great to be lucky. And we lucky to be good, that's exactly right.

道格，提醒大家，我認為我們的 FID 是 3.25 億美元，這是基於中期週期。我們回顧一下 2018 年的情況，我認為 EBITDA 約為 4.2 億美元。如果你使用第四季度的排序，大概是 7 億美元，也許多一點。所以如果你使用那種邊距。很明顯，它是——我不知道我們是否有令人難以置信的遠見，但很幸運。我們很幸運能成為好人，這是完全正確的。

So yes, I'd say we'll have assuming all this holds, and I think, what i start at least for our outlook, at least for this year, is that the sort of resid prices and distillate cracks a whole, it will be a -- the timing is pretty perfect.

所以是的，我會說我們假設所有這些都成立，而且我認為，至少對於我們的展望，至少今年，我開始的是那種渣油價格和餾分油的整體裂縫，它將是一個 - 時機非常完美。

Just to be clear, and I know you don't want to be specific on timing, but would you anticipate this up by the end of the second quarter? Or how are you thinking about start-up?

明確一點，我知道你不想具體說明時間，但你預計會在第二季度末完成嗎？或者你是如何考慮創業的？

I'm going to be fairly specific right here. We're going to be mechanically complete somewhere late Feb, early March, and we expect oil in somewhere late April or early May.

我將在這裡非常具體。我們將在 2 月底、3 月初的某個地方完成機械加工，我們預計石油將在 4 月底或 5 月初的某個地方完成。

Joe, I hate to do this, but I got to ask the cash return question. Your balance sheet, you've managed it -- or Jason maybe, back to below COVID levels. Your dividend still hasn't moved and your share count is now down, I guess, about 7%. So all things considered, it seems you've got a lot of capacity for dividend to restart dividend growth. How can you walk us through what you're thinking on cash returns?

喬，我討厭這樣做，但我必須問現金返還問題。你的資產負債表，你已經管理好了——或者傑森，回到了 COVID 水平以下。你的股息仍然沒有動，你的股票數量現在減少了，我猜，大約 7%。因此，考慮到所有因素，您似乎有很大的股息能力來重啟股息增長。您如何向我們介紹您對現金回報的看法？

Yes. No, Doug, that's a very fair question, and we'll let Jason share his strategy around this.

是的。不，Doug，這是一個非常公平的問題，我們將讓 Jason 分享他的策略。

Yes. I'll give a little context too because this quarter, we did beat a goal, which will kind of change in how we look at things. So back prior to the pandemic, we were frequently at the high end or even above our target return payout range of 40% to 50%. Now during the pandemic, we were very committed to our dividend and paying the dividend loan put us way above our 40% to 50% target range.

是的。我也會提供一些背景信息，因為本季度，我們確實實現了目標，這將改變我們看待事物的方式。因此，在大流行之前，我們經常處於高端甚至高於我們 40% 至 50% 的目標回報率範圍。現在在大流行期間，我們非常致力於我們的股息和支付股息貸款使我們遠遠超過我們 40% 到 50% 的目標範圍。

And as you know, during COVID, we had to take on another $4 billion of debt in 2020. So one of our main objectives as the financial situations improve post-COVID was the payback this incremental debt, which we've been aggressively working on. And we've messaged that while we're working on this competing goal of deleveraging, we would stay at the lower end of our 40% to 50% payout range, which is what we've been doing.

如您所知，在 COVID 期間，我們不得不在 2020 年再承擔 40 億美元的債務。因此，隨著 COVID 後財務狀況的改善，我們的主要目標之一是償還這些增量債務，我們一直在積極努力.我們已經表示，在我們努力實現去槓桿化這一競爭目標的同時，我們將保持在 40% 至 50% 的支出範圍的下限，這就是我們一直在做的事情。

Now in the fourth quarter, we were able to repurchase $442 million of debt, which is the final step in us meeting our goal of deleveraging by $4 billion. So with that insight, during the quarter, we increased our stock purchases to $1.8 billion, and we're able to end the year at a 45% payout ratio.

現在在第四季度，我們能夠回購 4.42 億美元的債務，這是我們實現 40 億美元去槓桿化目標的最後一步。因此，有了這種洞察力，在本季度，我們將股票購買量增加到 18 億美元，並且我們能夠以 45% 的支付率結束今年。

So we're able to work our way back to the midpoint of our target range for the full year. And now that we've paid off our pandemic debt and build our cash balance up to a good level, you should reasonably expect us to be looking at mid-level or higher payout targets, given the construction margin environment as we move forward.

因此，我們能夠回到全年目標範圍的中點。現在我們已經還清了我們的大流行病債務並將我們的現金餘額建立到一個良好的水平，考慮到我們前進的建築利潤率環境，你應該合理地期望我們會考慮中等或更高的支付目標。

Now on the dividend side, please go ahead -- yes, you'd asked about dividend too, which is other pieces of the puzzle. So we continue to aim for a dividend as sustainable and competitive versus our peers. We would also like to show growth. And as you know, the dividends -- we hadn't had any growth since the first quarter 2020 because, first of all, we had the pandemic, which we had to work our way through. And then we're rebuilding cash and working our debt down. So now, as I've said, we've kind of met those goals so we would like to return to a pattern of growth as we move forward.

現在在股息方面，請繼續——是的，你也問過股息，這是另一個難題。因此，我們繼續以與同行相比具有可持續性和競爭力的股息為目標。我們也想展示增長。如您所知，股息——自 2020 年第一季度以來我們沒有任何增長，因為首先，我們遇到了大流行病，我們必須努力渡過難關。然後我們正在重建現金並減少債務。所以現在，正如我所說，我們已經實現了這些目標，所以我們希望在前進的過程中恢復增長模式。

I appreciate the full answer, Jason. As you know, Joe, we'd like to see cash on the balance sheet. So thanks so much for that. All the best.

傑森，我很欣賞完整的答案。如你所知，喬，我們希望在資產負債表上看到現金。非常感謝。一切順利。

Net zero debt, Doug.

淨零債務，道格。

The next question is coming from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

I guess I'd like to jump in here on just, call it, crude structure in the market, right? We had big SPR releases a lot of last year. Those seem to have at least, I don't know if I'd say ceased, they've definitely eased quite a bit. You mentioned the Russian sanctions coming up. That's really more of a product thing. And then we've had the Venezuelan barrels start to enter the Gulf of Mexico. So I guess as a broad question, how are you looking at crude availability and crude dips as we get into the early days of '23 here? .

我想我只是想跳進這裡，稱其為市場的粗略結構，對嗎？去年我們發布了很多大型 SPR。那些似乎至少，我不知道我是否會說停止，他們肯定已經放鬆了很多。你提到了即將到來的俄羅斯制裁。這實際上更像是一種產品。然後我們讓委內瑞拉的石油桶開始進入墨西哥灣。所以我想作為一個廣泛的問題，當我們進入 23 世紀初期時，你如何看待原油供應和原油價格下跌？ .

Yes. So this is Gary. I think our outlook on crude quality differentials is we expect the market to stay fairly consistent. The key drivers really on the quality differentials have been more sour crude on the market, refineries running at high utilization rates, which produce more high sulfur fuel oil. And then with the IMO 2020 regulation, it's decreased the demand for high sulfur fuel oil.

是的。所以這是加里。我認為我們對原油質量差異的展望是我們預計市場將保持相當一致。真正影響質量差異的關鍵驅動因素是市場上更多的含硫原油，煉油廠以高利用率運行，生產更多的高硫燃料油。然後根據 IMO 2020 法規，它減少了對高硫燃料油的需求。

And so all those factors come into play, affecting the supply-demand balances around high sulfur fuel and then high sulfur fuel really drives the quality discount. So we don't see much changing at least in the near term in terms of where those quality differentials are.

因此，所有這些因素都發揮了作用，影響了圍繞高硫燃料的供需平衡，然後高硫燃料真正推動了質量折扣。因此，至少在短期內，我們認為這些質量差異的位置不會有太大變化。

And as a follow-up on that, I think, Joe, you mentioned with the Russian ban, we might see less VGO in the market. Maybe, Gary, that would -- as for your comments. If there's less VGO in the Atlantic Basin in general, what is your expectation for a substitute feedstock into the summer of the secondary units and the kind of follow-on impacts on distillate production?

作為後續行動，我認為，喬，你提到俄羅斯禁令，我們可能會在市場上看到更少的 VGO。也許，Gary，關於你的意見。如果大西洋盆地的 VGO 總體上較少，您對二級裝置夏季替代原料的期望是什麼以及對餾分油生產的後續影響是什麼？

Roger, this is Lane. I'll take a shot at it. I think what you'll see, and we were concerned about it going into this past year was the VGO availability, but we sort of squeak through with some of the way some of the refineries in the Middle East started up. And I think some people stockpiled VGO, I mean the answer to that is it will remain tight. And ultimately, where it affects is gasoline production. If you believe distillate cracks are going to hang in there where they are, you'll have clear margins by VGO into a hydrocracker, but it will challenge FCC's economics through the summer, it's in fact, as it gets tight.

羅傑，這是萊恩。我會試一試。我想你會看到，在過去的一年裡，我們擔心的是 VGO 的可用性，但我們通過中東一些煉油廠啟動的方式勉強通過了。我認為有些人囤積了 VGO，我的意思是答案是它會保持緊張。最終，它影響的是汽油生產。如果您認為餾出物裂紋會停留在它們所在的位置，那麼您將通過 VGO 進入加氫裂化器獲得明顯的利潤，但它將在整個夏天挑戰 FCC 的經濟性，事實上，隨著它變得緊張。

The next question is coming from John Royall of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So I was hoping for your view on China reopening and how that could trickle through the market, particularly when you think about the new refining capacity coming on and they appear to still be releasing big batches of export quota . So anything on China reopening would be helpful.

因此，我希望您對中國重新開放以及這將如何滲透到市場有何看法，尤其是當您考慮到新的煉油能力即將出現並且它們似乎仍在釋放大批量的出口配額時。因此，關於中國重新開放的任何事情都會有所幫助。

Yes. So this is Gary. I think we've certainly seen the Chinese more active in the market, both purchasing feedstocks and in the product markets as well. It looks to us like a lot of the product exports from China are staying in the region, although we occasionally see some exports making their way into our market. But our view is that you'll see significant demand recovery in China by the second quarter. And a lot of that ramp-up in refinery utilization in China will be needed to supply the domestic demand.

是的。所以這是加里。我想我們肯定已經看到中國人在市場上更加活躍，無論是在採購原料還是在產品市場上。在我們看來，很多中國出口的產品都留在了該地區，儘管我們偶爾會看到一些出口產品進入我們的市場。但我們的觀點是，到第二季度你會看到中國的需求顯著復甦。中國需要大量提高煉油廠利用率來滿足國內需求。

On the new refinery capacity, at least our supply-demand balances still show year-over-year demand will outpace capacity additions. And so we're not too concerned about it. A lot of that capacity really doesn't make a lot of transportation fuels. Some of the big refineries in China, it's less than 50% total gasoline, jet and diesel yield, a lot more petrochemicals and fuel oil production.

在新的煉油廠產能方面，至少我們的供需平衡仍顯示同比需求將超過新增產能。所以我們並不太擔心它。很多這樣的容量實際上並不能產生大量的運輸燃料。中國的一些大煉油廠，汽油、噴氣和柴油的總產量不到 50%，更多的是石化和燃料油產量。

Great. That's helpful. And then on the Renewable Diesel side, can you talk about how the feedstock market is absorbing DGD 3? And this is the case, why it's been kind of easier than having pushed up advantaged feedstock the way it did with DGD 2?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後在可再生柴油方面，您能談談原料市場如何吸收 DGD 3 嗎？就是這樣，為什麼它比像 DGD 2 那樣推高優勢原料更容易？

Yes, this is Eric. We haven't really seen a big change in feedstock costs with DGD 3 coming on. As you said, we did see a big change where waste oil feeds really equilibrated to soybean oil with DGD 2 in 2021. But with the start-up of DGD 3, we've seen prices hold pretty flat. We saw that soybean oil actually, at least "CBOT soybean oil" quote came pretty flat to waste oils in October and November. But then we saw the soybean oil quote "drop" really with the EPA announcement on their RFS obligations for the next 3 years. And so -- but overall, to answer your question, we haven't seen a big change in feedstock prices. It's been pretty stable.

是的，這是埃里克。隨著 DGD 3 的推出，我們還沒有真正看到原料成本發生重大變化。正如您所說，我們確實看到了一個很大的變化，即廢油飼料在 2021 年真正與 DGD 2 豆油平衡。但是隨著 DGD 3 的啟動，我們看到價格持平。實際上，我們看到豆油，至少“CBOT 豆油”報價在 10 月和 11 月與地溝油相當持平。但隨後我們看到豆油報價真的“下跌”，因為 EPA 宣布了他們未來 3 年的 RFS 義務。所以——但總的來說，為了回答你的問題，我們沒有看到原料價格發生重大變化。一直很穩定。

The next question is coming from Sam Margolin of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin。

So in the prepared remarks, you mentioned European energy cost driving optimization opportunities in the U.S. via a lot of different factors. But energy costs in Europe have crashed and diesel cracks are still rising and those optimization opportunities are still there. Can you talk a little bit about maybe what's going on in Europe from your perspective that's kind of sustaining these advantages even though the gas cost side is maybe out of the equation?

因此，在準備好的發言中，您提到了歐洲能源成本通過許多不同因素推動美國的優化機會。但歐洲的能源成本已經暴跌，柴油裂解率仍在上升，這些優化機會仍然存在。你能談談從你的角度來看歐洲正在發生的事情，即使天然氣成本方面可能不在等式中，也能維持這些優勢嗎？

I'll start and if Gary wants to sort of add . This is Lane, by the way, Sam. So natural gas still at the U.K. and really in the Netherlands is still nominally around $20 per million BTU. When comparing that today, sort of the Houston -- I mean Henry Hub's probably nominally 3 and change. So there's still a significant difference between natural gas cost now. With that said, we'll use our Pembroke refinery as a proxy -- Natural gas really hasn't driven our signals in over a year. And so I guess what I'm saying now we don't have an SMR and we're not -- we don't have a big hydrocracker, so we don't have a lot of insight into how that flows through to their marginal economics on those units. But what I'm saying is it's high natural gas prices. In Europe, at least for us, it hasn't changed our signals, which is run maxed at our Pembroke refinery.

我會開始，如果 Gary 想添加 .順便說一句，山姆，這是萊恩。因此，天然氣仍在英國，實際上在荷蘭，名義上仍約為每百萬 BTU 20 美元。今天比較時，有點像休斯頓——我的意思是亨利中心可能名義上是 3 和變化。所以現在天然氣成本之間仍然存在顯著差異。話雖如此，我們將使用我們的彭布羅克煉油廠作為代理——天然氣確實已經一年多沒有驅動我們的信號了。所以我想我現在說的是什麼，我們沒有 SMR，我們也沒有——我們沒有大型加氫裂化裝置，所以我們對它是如何流向他們的沒有太多了解這些單位的邊際經濟。但我要說的是天然氣價格高。在歐洲，至少對我們而言，它並沒有改變我們的信號，我們的彭布羅克煉油廠已經滿負荷運轉。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then I guess just as a follow-on, it's a little bit related, but it's back to Port Arthur. I mean the Coker is starting up at this high run rate, and you've got a new renewable diesel facility there that's very cost advantage if for no other reason than just its integration with the refinery. So this is a facility that's probably the most valuable fuels complex in the world at this point, I would say. And I don't even know what the question is, to be honest with you, but I'm just trying to get contribution to the system.

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後我想作為後續，它有點相關，但它又回到了亞瑟港。我的意思是，焦化廠以如此高的運行率啟動，而且那裡有一個新的可再生柴油設施，如果沒有其他原因，而不僅僅是與煉油廠的整合，那將具有非常大的成本優勢。因此，我想說，這可能是目前世界上最有價值的燃料綜合設施。老實說，我什至不知道問題是什麼，但我只是想為系統做出貢獻。

We like where you're going, Sam.

我們喜歡你要去的地方，山姆。

Yes. I mean if it has -- if it's dragging up the entire Gulf Coast system with it because of optimization opportunities that it comes with, I mean, just sort of I guess, a plant level contribution would be helpful.

是的。我的意思是，如果它有——如果它因為它帶來的優化機會而拖累整個墨西哥灣沿岸系統，我的意思是，我的意思是，我猜，工廠級的貢獻會有所幫助。

What was that last question?

最後一個問題是什麼？

Contribution at the plant level? .

工廠層面的貢獻？ .

Yes. We can't really say that. We do appreciate your comments around it. I mean -- if you think about what this Coker does, at least, it reduces -- well, heavy the refinery up and our intermediate purchases sort of if you think about our VGO comments will be down significantly.

是的。我們真的不能這麼說。我們非常感謝您對此發表評論。我的意思是——如果你考慮一下這台 Coker 的作用，至少，它會減少——好吧，如果你考慮我們的 VGO 評論，那麼我們的中間採購會大大減少。

So the better integrates sort of vertically integrates that refinery and makes it way less sort of. As you said, it's a very important asset. It makes us way less, I'd say, significantly less dependent on intermediates to fill out the refinery.

因此，更好的整合就是垂直整合該煉油廠，並使其變得不那麼複雜。正如您所說，這是一項非常重要的資產。我想說，它使我們更少地依賴中間體來填充煉油廠。

And then obviously, the renewable diesel plant is going to be very helpful. So you're right, Sam, it's a very valuable complex to us.

然後顯然，可再生柴油廠將非常有幫助。所以你是對的，山姆，這對我們來說是一個非常有價值的綜合體。

The next question is coming from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Can I go back into Port Arthur, mainly with the Coker coming on stream, we understand that, I mean, one of the decisions behind is that you will allow you doing the turnaround, you can still won the facility. But during the long term around period, how that impact Port Arthur in terms of their cruise lay of throughput and product yield?

我可以回到亞瑟港嗎，主要是隨著 Coker 的投產，我們明白，我的意思是，背後的決定之一是你將允許你進行周轉，你仍然可以贏得設施。但從長遠來看，這對亞瑟港的郵輪吞吐量和產品產量有何影響？

So are you talking about the turnaround portion of it? Are you just...

那麼你是在談論它的周轉部分嗎？你只是...

Outside of it. I mean, we understand the turnaround Now you have 2 Coker. So -- but I'm more interested if it is not doing the turnaround, how the new Coker addition will really impact in terms of (inaudible)31.57 your product yield and your overall throughput?

在它之外。我的意思是，我們理解轉變現在你有 2 個 Coker。所以 - 但我更感興趣的是，如果它沒有進行周轉，新的 Coker 添加將如何真正影響（聽不清）31.57 你的產品產量和你的總吞吐量？

So as I said to Sam, it's -- we'll heavy up considerably. Today, we run some light crudes and medium crudes. You'll see us run significantly more heavy, maybe plus rate, probably over time. I'd looking back at the FID sum, but it's not as much as you would think. And in terms of distillate, that's really the net product we make out of this. And it's sort of a plus 15% to plus 25% depending on the crude die in terms of distillate. What it really is, is a reduction in feedstock purchases for us. In addition to like we said, it's a turnaround efficiency.

所以正如我對山姆說的那樣——我們會大大增加。今天，我們經營一些輕質原油和中質原油。隨著時間的推移，你會看到我們跑得更重，也許還有更高的速度。我會回顧 FID 總和，但它並不像你想像的那麼多。就餾出物而言，這實際上是我們從中獲得的淨產品。根據餾出物的原油模具，它可以增加 15% 到 25%。實際上，是我們減少了原料採購。除了像我們說的那樣，這是一種周轉效率。

Right. So we assume that is a 55,000 barrel per day, so you will see incremental one of heavy and mediums to the tune of 150,000 barrels per day?

正確的。所以我們假設這是每天 55,000 桶，那麼您會看到重型和中型中的增量之一達到每天 150,000 桶？

I'm sorry, Paul, can you repeat that?

對不起，保羅，你能再說一遍嗎？

Now the Coker, the capacity is 55,000 barrels per day. Should we assume we're heavier up by about 150,000 barrels per day of the heavy and medium sour crude?

現在的 Coker，產能是每天 55,000 桶。我們是否應該假設重質和中質含硫原油每天增加約 150,000 桶？

No, we're not increasing 50,000 barrel per day. We're heavying up. You'll see our rates. I don't anomaly go from -- I don't know it's public here, I got to be careful. (inaudible) 33.20 We run anywhere from 340,000 to 360,000 today, 375,000 depending on the crude die. I think we could potentially go up plus 30,000 to plus 40,000 on crude depending on how heavy we are or we are. So that's sort of what happens. And so then it just changes.

不，我們不會每天增加 50,000 桶。我們正在加重。您會看到我們的費率。我沒有異常——我不知道這裡是公共場所，我得小心點。 （聽不清） 33.20 我們今天運行 340,000 到 360,000，375,000 取決於原始模具。我認為我們可能會增加 30,000 至 40,000 原油，具體取決於我們的重量或我們的重量。所以這就是發生的事情。然後它就改變了。

When we do this all the time whenever we change our crude die, we sort of have to spot in intermediate purchases to finish our conversion units out. So what will happen is we'll reduce the amount of intermediate purchases depending by significantly on the base and tuning the refinery between how heavy we are and how we'll change sort of the how our crude run rates. So -- but it's not a plus 150,000

當我們每次更換原始模具時都這樣做時，我們有點不得不發現中間採購以完成我們的轉換單元。因此，將會發生的事情是，我們將減少中間採購量，具體取決於基礎，並在我們的重量和我們將如何改變原油運行率之間調整煉油廠。所以 - 但它不是加 150,000

No, no, I'm saying not the overall throughput increased by 150,000, I'm saying that, will you increase the run of heavy and medium sour crude by 150,000 barrels per day with this Coker.

不，不，我不是說總吞吐量增加了 150,000，我是說，你會用這台 Coker 將重質和中質含硫原油的日產量增加 150,000 桶嗎？

Will it increase?

會增加嗎？

We would have to get back to you. It's going to be a lot. I mean, I have to go back and see how much we incremented on terms of the volume. So -- and we'll have to get back with you. You can get back with Homer similarly disclosed that I don't know what are you...

我們必須盡快回复您。會很多的。我的意思是，我必須回去看看我們在數量上增加了多少。所以 - 我們必須與您聯繫。你可以和荷馬一起回來，同樣透露我不知道你是什麼......

And second question is that in your North Atlantic, the margin in this quarter is really, really strong, even comparing to the benchmark indicator. Can you maybe help us better understand that what may be some driver outside just the market condition if there's any?

第二個問題是，在你的北大西洋，本季度的利潤率真的非常強勁，甚至與基準指標相比也是如此。你能不能幫助我們更好地理解，如果有的話，市場條件之外的一些驅動因素可能是什麼？

So Paul, which margin -- Valero's overall

所以保羅，哪個利潤率——瓦萊羅的整體

North Atlantic -- your North Atlantic.

北大西洋——你的北大西洋。

Well, I didn't really -- it's not that much stronger versus the prior quarter. I mean, it's just -- the way we look at it is -- yes, Which one?

好吧，我真的沒有——與上一季度相比並沒有那麼強。我的意思是，這只是——我們看待它的方式——是的，哪一個？

Lower net (inaudible) I think $29.

較低的淨值（聽不清）我認為是 29 美元。

No, but I'm saying versus prior like I said.

不，但我說的是與之前所說的相比。

Capture was only up a margin.

Capture 僅略有上升。

Yes. capture rate was up just a little bit.

是的。捕獲率上升了一點點。

The next question is coming from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe -- a follow-up on some things that you may be touched on a little bit earlier on the call. I think from a macro point of view, as some of the -- what appear to be at least whether they're structural or lingering improvements and kind of underlying profitability for the business, it seems like the global system is exceptionally tight in terms of generating low sulfur product, and maybe that's a post IMO effect. But is that a fair statement?

也許——跟進一些你可能在電話會議上早些時候提到的事情。我認為從宏觀的角度來看，作為一些 - 似乎至少是結構性或揮之不去的改進以及業務的潛在盈利能力，似乎全球系統在以下方面異常緊張產生低硫產品，也許這是後 IMO 效應。但這是一個公平的說法嗎？

Have you seen kind of a -- post IMO, have you seen a structural change or tightness in the ability of the global refining system to generate ultra-low-sulfur product? And is that something that sticks with us for a long time and on the margin drives higher distillate margins?

你有沒有看到 - 在 IMO 之後，你是否看到全球煉油系統生產超低硫產品的能力發生結構性變化或緊張？這是否會長期困擾我們並在利潤率上推動更高的餾分油利潤率？

Yes, I think so. So you can see that -- a couple of places, you can really see at the low to high spread on fuel oil, you can certainly see the gap that's occurred. And then just general weakness in high sulfur fuel. I think it tells you that the industry really is tight on capacity to upgrade high-sulfur fuel into low-sulfur products. And we've really seen that starting early last year, and it's continuing, and we don't see anything that changes that.

是的，我想是這樣。所以你可以看到——在幾個地方，你真的可以看到燃油從低到高的價差，你當然可以看到已經發生的差距。然後只是高硫燃料的普遍疲軟。我想這告訴你，這個行業在將高硫燃料升級為低硫產品的能力上確實很緊張。從去年年初開始，我們確實看到了這種情況，而且這種情況還在繼續，我們看不到有任何改變。

Right. And then maybe just one on the Renewable Diesel side. I mean early guidance for the 2023 to 2025 time frame didn't appear very supportive for renewable diesel on its surface. Any thoughts on what your takeaways were overall, whether you see the market as potentially oversupplied this year? And whether this may result in pushing more marginal players out of the market? Obviously, you have a structural cost advantage, so you're on the low end of the curve. But do you expect -- I guess, how did you read the guidance? What do you think the impact will be over the next year or 2 on the market?

正確的。然後也許只是可再生柴油方面的一個。我的意思是，從表面上看，2023 年至 2025 年時間框架的早期指導似乎不太支持可再生柴油。對您的總體看法有何想法，您是否認為今年市場可能供過於求？這是否會導致更多邊緣參與者退出市場？顯然，您具有結構性成本優勢，因此處於曲線的低端。但是您是否期望——我想，您是如何閱讀指南的？您認為明年或兩年對市場的影響是什麼？

Well, so one thing that we saw with the RFS obligation is that they kept the ethanol target at 15 billion gallons, which means you're still going to be in a situation at some point in the year where you have to use the D4 RIN to cover the D6 obligation because the ethanol blending won't reach 15 billion gallons. So that mechanism is still in there.

那麼，我們在 RFS 義務中看到的一件事是，他們將乙醇目標保持在 150 億加侖，這意味著你在一年中的某個時候仍將處於必須使用 D4 RIN 的情況以支付 D6 義務，因為乙醇混合不會達到 150 億加侖。所以這個機制仍然存在。

To your point, the future obligations were higher but not as high as people expected. And when you saw that announcement come out, you did see a big drop in soybean oil prices as well as a lot of pressure on -- or question on whether or not all these soybean crush facilities were going to get built based on that lower obligation going forward. So it's a little bit of a mixed bag that there's still going to be a short on the D6 RIN, but there is definitely a lower growth curve on the D4 RIN in this current proposal.

就您的觀點而言，未來的義務更高，但沒有人們預期的那麼高。當你看到該公告發佈時，你確實看到豆油價格大幅下跌以及很大的壓力 - 或者質疑所有這些大豆壓榨設施是否會根據較低的義務建造向前走。因此，D6 RIN 仍然會出現短缺，但在目前的提案中，D4 RIN 的增長曲線肯定較低，這有點複雜。

So we'll have to see how that plays out. There's still a lot of talk about a lot of the policy trying to move away from soybean oil as a feedstock, both in Europe and in the U.S., at least in terms of conversations. And so as everyone's trying to figure out is that part of what's at play with this lower RFS proposal. So -- but overall, as you said, we're a waste oil units that isn't affected by that. And as you said, we will be competitive regardless of the obligation compared to our peers.

所以我們必須看看結果如何。在歐洲和美國，至少在對話方面，仍然有很多關於試圖擺脫豆油作為原料的政策的討論。因此，正如每個人都想弄清楚的那樣，這個較低的 RFS 提案正在發揮作用。所以——但總的來說，正如你所說，我們是一個不受此影響的廢油單位。正如您所說，與我們的同行相比，無論義務如何，我們都將具有競爭力。

So we'll have to see how the -- we'll just have to see how this plays out. I don't know, Rich, you had other comments about sort of the future outlook on the RFS proposal. I know we're

所以我們必須看看 - 我們只需要看看它是如何發揮作用的。我不知道，Rich，你對 RFS 提案的未來前景有過其他評論。我知道我們是

Yes. I mean assume one thing I would hit on is this -- the elements of the eRIN they put in that's probably the thing that we find most problematic with the rule. EPA is trying to convert the RFS into a subsidy for EVs, for autos. And obviously, we'll be commenting very heavy on that. We feel that the RFS is really set out by Congress and the intent was for it to be used to promote liquid renewable fuels like the use of soybean and corn and for ethanol.

是的。我的意思是假設我會想到的一件事是——他們放入的 eRIN 的元素可能是我們發現規則中最有問題的東西。 EPA 正試圖將 RFS 轉變為對電動汽車和汽車的補貼。顯然，我們將對此發表非常多的評論。我們認為 RFS 確實是由國會制定的，其目的是將其用於促進液體可再生燃料的使用，例如大豆和玉米以及乙醇的使用。

And we don't think trying to convert this into some kind of a [usurper] for EV purposes really is consistent with the underlying obligations intend of Congress with the RFS.

而且我們認為嘗試將其轉換為某種用於電動汽車目的的 [篡奪者] 並不真正符合國會對 RFS 的基本義務。

The next question is coming from Connor Lynagh of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Connor Lynagh。

I kind of want to continue that line of questioning there. I appreciate this is a little bit ridiculous since you just brought DGD 3 online. But -- what is the sort of policy vision make you think about DGD 4 or some of the opportunities that you'll have when you have your carbon capture system online for your ethanol plants? Just where is your head on where future renewables growth for you guys might be?

我有點想在那裡繼續提問。我明白這有點荒謬，因為你剛剛把 DGD 3 帶到了網上。但是 - 什麼樣的政策願景讓您想到 DGD 4 或當您為乙醇工廠提供在線碳捕獲系統時您將擁有的一些機會？你們對你們未來可再生能源增長的看法在哪裡？

Well, previously, we said we would take a pause after DGD 3 and kind of reassess the market. So we're -- like you said, we're still lining out DGD 3. It's project went great. It came in under budget. It was 9 months ahead of schedule. It's met design. It's met its design rates already. And I'll just say that the project team, the operations team and the fuel compliance team did a great job making this a very smooth start-up, and we're not having any problem moving sales out of DGD 3 into markets.

好吧，之前，我們說過我們會在 DGD 3 之後暫停並重新評估市場。所以我們 - 就像你說的那樣，我們仍在安排 DGD 3。它的項目進展順利。它低於預算。比計劃提前了9個月。它符合設計。它已經達到了設計速度。我只想說，項目團隊、運營團隊和燃料合規團隊做得很好，使啟動非常順利，我們在將銷售從 DGD 3 轉移到市場上沒有任何問題。

So as I said before, we haven't seen an increase in feedstock prices. So everything looks very competitive with DGD3 coming up. That all being said, I think we continue to do the engineering on the SAF project for the DGD platform, and then we continue to support the Navigator pipeline for the CO2 sequestration for our ethanol plants. So all of that still says that there's a lot of opportunity with our platform, given its location and competitive position.

所以正如我之前所說，我們沒有看到原料價格上漲。所以隨著 DGD3 的到來，一切看起來都非常有競爭力。話雖如此，我認為我們將繼續為 DGD 平台進行 SAF 項目的工程設計，然後我們將繼續支持用於乙醇工廠 CO2 封存的 Navigator 管道。所以所有這些仍然表明我們的平台有很多機會，考慮到它的位置和競爭地位。

What's your thinking around exploring potential alcohol to jet or other avenues to approach the SAF market.

關於探索潛在的酒精噴射或其他途徑進入 SAF 市場，您有何想法？

Yes, I think there's two things. Obviously, what's key to that is that the sequestration project has to go first. In order for ethanol to qualify for SAF, you have to get below the 50% GHG targets for the EU. And so if you look -- if you assume that pipeline is done in the next couple of years, it will qualify our ethanol platform into SAF. And so the other thing that we've learned is with the SAF projects, you still have to blend that with conventional jet to make the final SAF product.

是的，我認為有兩件事。顯然，關鍵是封存項目必須先行。為了使乙醇符合 SAF 的條件，您必須低於歐盟 50% 的溫室氣體排放目標。因此，如果你看 - 如果你假設管道在未來幾年內完成，它將使我們的乙醇平台有資格進入 SAF。因此，我們了解到的另一件事是 SAF 項目，您仍然必須將其與傳統噴氣機混合以製造最終的 SAF 產品。

So if you think about our platform, we have the ethanol, we have the carbon sequestration and we've got the conventional jet on the refining side. It does look like we would have a lot of advantage in just a complete supply chain into a finished SAF product. So that all looks like it's something we will continue to look at as we get closer to reality on this carbon sequestration pipeline.

所以如果你想想我們的平台，我們有乙醇，我們有碳封存，我們在煉油方面有傳統的噴氣式飛機。看起來我們在將完整的供應鏈轉化為成品 SAF 產品方面確實有很多優勢。因此，隨著我們在這條碳封存管道上越來越接近現實，這一切看起來都是我們將繼續關注的事情。

The next question is coming from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs. .

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。 .

Congrats on a great quarter. The first question was around jet cracks. We're seeing that premium relative to diesel really blow out in some markets. Would love your perspective on, do you think there's a structural premium in Jet? And how do you see those premiums playing out over time?

祝賀一個偉大的季度。第一個問題是關於射流裂縫。我們看到，在某些市場中，相對於柴油的溢價確實已經過高。會喜歡你的觀點，你認為 Jet 有結構性溢價嗎？你如何看待這些溢價隨著時間的推移發揮作用？

Yes. So I think in the short term, a lot of what you're seeing, the premiums on jet are primarily in New York Harbor in the Florida market. And it's still a bit of an overhang from the winter storm outages that we had in the U.S. Gulf Coast, causing those markets to be exceptionally tight. It looks to us like probably mid-month in February, you'll get some resupply, which will help jet supply in those regions. But overall, we expect jet demand to increase significantly this year and overall, a lot of tightness in the distillate markets.

是的。所以我認為在短期內，你所看到的很多東西，噴氣式飛機的保費主要是在佛羅里達市場的紐約港。而且美國墨西哥灣沿岸的冬季風暴停電仍然有點懸而未決，導致這些市場異常緊張。在我們看來，大概在 2 月中旬，你會得到一些補給，這將有助於這些地區的噴氣式飛機供應。但總的來說，我們預計今年噴氣機需求將大幅增加，總體而言，餾分油市場將非常緊張。

That's helpful. And that's a follow-up is around just the demand levels. I mean, we've historically anchored to EIA on some of the U.S. demand levels and the numbers are noisy. I mean, I think, in the last 4-week trailing number was down 11%, which is hard to reconcile with the fact that disti is 20% below the 5-year from an inventory perspective and gasoline below the 5-year as well.

這很有幫助。而這只是圍繞需求水平的後續行動。我的意思是，我們歷來將 EIA 錨定在美國的某些需求水平上，而且數字很嘈雜。我的意思是，我認為過去 4 週的尾隨數字下降了 11%，這很難與從庫存角度來看 disti 比 5 年期低 20% 以及汽油也低於 5 年期的事實相吻合.

So just would love to hear what you're seeing through your own wholesale system in terms of demand? And any thoughts on real-time color there?

那麼只是想听聽您在需求方面通過自己的批發系統看到了什麼？對實時顏色有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. So we share the view that the DOE numbers look low to us and we would expect them to be corrected going forward. Our wholesale numbers are trending pretty high. So gasoline volumes through our wholesale channel are about 12% above where they were pre-pandemic levels, which we don't necessarily think is representative of the broader markets either.

是的。因此，我們同意 DOE 數字對我們來說看起來很低的觀點，我們希望它們在未來得到糾正。我們的批發數量趨勢相當高。因此，我們批發渠道的汽油銷量比大流行前水平高出約 12%，我們認為這也不一定代表更廣泛的市場。

For us, I think the number which we focus on are more around the mobility data, which is kind of showing vehicle miles traveled flat to slightly above where it was pre-pandemic levels with some improvements in the efficiency of the fleet. It would say gasoline demand down maybe in the 2% range is what we kind of believe is most likely.

對我們來說，我認為我們關注的數字更多地圍繞移動數據，這有點顯示車輛行駛里程持平至略高於大流行前水平，同時車隊效率有所提高。它會說汽油需求下降可能在 2% 的範圍內，這是我們認為最有可能發生的情況。

The next question is coming from Jason Gabelman of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

I got a couple of questions. First, I wanted to ask about the U.S. Gulf Coast intermediate imports, the resids, and I understand some of that's going to be backed out with the Port Arthur Coker project, but you'll probably be taking some in-sell. And as these resid differentials have widened throughout the year, I imagine it's been a pretty large benefit to your capture rates in 2022. So I was hoping you could help frame that?

我有幾個問題。首先，我想問問美國墨西哥灣沿岸的中間進口、渣油，我知道其中一些將被亞瑟港焦化項目支持，但你可能會進行一些銷售。隨著這些殘渣差異在全年擴大，我想這對您在 2022 年的捕獲率有相當大的好處。所以我希望您能幫助構建它？

And if you expect resids the discount to stay wide in 2023 and continue to contribute to stronger captures despite your commentary that you expect some of the Russian VGO to be taken off the market? And I have a follow-up.

如果您預計 2023 年的剩餘折扣將保持廣泛，並繼續為更強勁的捕獲做出貢獻，儘管您的評論是您預計一些俄羅斯 VGO 將退出市場？我有一個後續行動。

So this is Lane. I'll start on that. I mean, I think we'll probably -- we always look at heavy crude versus fuel oil. I mean one of the things that's happened sort of Russia big buyers have been 100 out of Russia. And obviously, we don't buy that anymore. So we've canvased the world and figured out alternative sort of fuel oil feedstocks and they're plentiful largely based on what Gary has mentioned. I mean, you have a lot of incremental crude going into low complexity and they're struggling making sulfur. So you can see that in the 3.5 weight percent discount to virtually everything else. And so we do believe that's going to continue. I think through this year. So at Valero, you'll see us buy more heavy crude, we want post Coker, and you'll see us buy some more fuel oil and less intermediates.

這就是萊恩。我會開始的。我的意思是，我認為我們可能會——我們總是關注重質原油與燃料油。我的意思是，俄羅斯大買家中發生的事情之一是 100 人離開了俄羅斯。顯然，我們不再買那個了。因此，我們走遍了世界，找到了替代燃料油原料，它們在很大程度上基於加里提到的內容。我的意思是，你有很多增量原油進入低複雜度，他們正在努力製造硫磺。因此，您可以在幾乎所有其他產品的 3.5 重量百分比折扣中看到這一點。所以我們相信這會繼續下去。我想通過今年。所以在瓦萊羅，你會看到我們購買更多的重質原油，我們想要後焦化，你會看到我們購買更多的燃料油和更少的中間體。

Yes. So the only thing I would add is for the full year 2022, resid probably didn't have a significantly positive impact on our capture rates just because after the Russian sanctions and those barrels came off the market. For really the second and third quarter, it was rebalancing the trade flows. But in the fourth quarter, we certainly saw a significant impact.

是的。因此，我唯一要補充的是，對於 2022 年全年，殘留物可能不會對我們的捕獲率產生顯著的積極影響，只是因為在俄羅斯制裁和這些桶退出市場之後。實際上，在第二季度和第三季度，它正在重新平衡貿易流量。但在第四季度，我們當然看到了重大影響。

Got it. And my follow-up is on DGD. Given the start-up of DGD 3, I suspect there was a larger distribution to the joint venture partners. So I was wondering if you're willing to disclose what that distribution was? And now that you're going to likely moving forward to have more access to the cash from DGD in the form of ongoing distributions, does that impact how you think about the payout ratio at all?

知道了。我的後續行動是關於 DGD。鑑於 DGD 3 的啟動，我懷疑對合資夥伴的分配更大。所以我想知道你是否願意透露那個分佈是什麼？現在您可能會繼續以持續分配的形式從 DGD 獲得更多現金，這是否會影響您對派息率的看法？

Maybe I'll start on just on the DGD side, it just started up. We haven't even got to the conversation with cash distributions yet. But the expectation is this year, it should be with capital spending coming to a close with the project that there should be more cash spinning off from the joint venture. I don't know, Jason, if you comment on that.

也許我會從 DGD 方面開始，它剛剛開始。我們甚至還沒有開始討論現金分配。但預計今年，隨著該項目的資本支出接近尾聲，應該會有更多的現金從合資企業中剝離出來。傑森，我不知道你是否對此發表評論。

Yes, that's right With having DGD 3 finish, we'll have excess cash. And they're always looking at new capital projects and maybe they'll find another way to deploy it otherwise, there should be cash coming out. And we do include that in our calculus when we're looking at payout ratios, but I guess that's all I had on it.

是的，沒錯隨著 DGD 3 的完成，我們將擁有多餘的現金。而且他們一直在尋找新的資本項目，也許他們會找到另一種部署方式，否則應該會有現金流出。當我們查看支付比率時，我們確實將其包括在我們的微積分中，但我想這就是我的全部。

The next question is coming from William -- I'm sorry, Matthew Blair of TPH.

下一個問題來自 William -- 抱歉，TPH 的 Matthew Blair。

Do you have any early thoughts on the Q1 '23 refining capture rate? It seems like we might want to be just a little conservative here. I think you're refining guidance implies like 86% to 89% utilization. So probably a heavier turnaround period. And then some other factors like butane blending and octane spreads still good, but looks like they're coming down from Q4 levels. So I guess, directionally, does that make sense that we want to be more conservative on capture in Q1 and anything else we should consider there?

您對 Q1 '23 精煉捕獲率有任何早期想法嗎？看起來我們可能想在這裡稍微保守一點。我認為你正在完善指導意味著 86% 到 89% 的利用率。所以可能是一個更重的周轉期。然後其他一些因素，如丁烷混合和辛烷值差仍然不錯，但看起來它們正在從第四季度的水平下降。所以我想，從方向上講，我們希望在第一季度的捕獲以及我們應該考慮的其他任何事情上更加保守是否有意義？

Yes, I don't know that you need to be more conservative on capture rates. Obviously, we have seasonal maintenance. We'd have to look at the material balance and figure out how that actually impacts the sort of the dollars per barrel capture rates. So I wouldn't jump to conclusion of changes. But appreciably from Q4 to Q1, both quarters, you're blending butane. Both quarters, you have fairly wide sour discounts.

是的，我不知道您需要在捕獲率上更加保守。顯然，我們有季節性維護。我們必須查看物料平衡並弄清楚它實際上如何影響每桶捕獲率的美元類型。所以我不會倉促得出更改的結論。但明顯地，從第四季度到第一季度，這兩個季度，你都在混合丁烷。這兩個季度，你都有相當大的折扣。

So I don't -- we'll just have to see how that plays out. But obviously, we have some maintenance occurring, our turnaround were occurring in Q1 and that's normal for us. That's -- when we do turn around, this is a heavy quarter for us versus the rest of the year.

所以我不——我們只需要看看結果如何。但顯然，我們進行了一些維護，我們的轉變發生在第一季度，這對我們來說是正常的。那就是——當我們確實扭轉局面時，與今年餘下時間相比，這對我們來說是一個沉重的季度。

Got it. And then for DGD, how should we think about the feedstock mix going forward? Your old guidance was 1/3 fat, 1/3 corn oil, 1/3 UCO , but you started up DGD 3 and your partners acquired more KELO production. So it seems like we might want to inch up maybe a little bit on the fat compared to that 1/3 guidance, maybe inch down on the [UCO] is that fair? And do you have anything more specific on that?

知道了。然後對於 DGD，我們應該如何考慮未來的原料組合？您之前的指導是 1/3 脂肪、1/3 玉米油、1/3 UCO，但您啟動了 DGD 3，並且您的合作夥伴獲得了更多的 KELO 產品。因此，與 1/3 的指導相比，我們似乎可能希望在脂肪上稍微增加一點，也許在 [UCO] 上稍微降低一點，這公平嗎？你有什麼更具體的嗎？

Well, I guess we don't normally get into that level of detail on feeds. What I would say is the whole DGD platform is big for waste oils. And so it's always going to favor the UCO's and tallows and inedible corn oil over other feeds from a CI standpoint. So how each of those individual feedstocks play is always, that's very dynamic. And the thing I'd say is what we do see, maybe just to add some color, is we are running a lot more of international feedstocks, both coming from Darling as well as just more broadly in the world.

好吧，我想我們通常不會深入了解提要的細節。我要說的是，整個 DGD 平台都非常適合處理廢油。因此，從 CI 的角度來看，與其他飼料相比，UCO、牛脂和不可食用的玉米油總是更受歡迎。因此，每種原料的作用總是非常動態的。我要說的是我們確實看到的，也許只是為了增加一些色彩，我們正在運行更多的國際原料，既來自達令，也來自世界各地。

So -- and those are waste oils. We ran some veg oil in the fourth quarter because as we spoke earlier, the prices of it became attractive. But going forward, I think it's always going to be some mix of those 3 waste oils as the most attractive feeds.

所以——那些是廢油。我們在第四季度使用了一些植物油，因為正如我們之前所說，它的價格變得很有吸引力。但展望未來，我認為這 3 種地溝油的混合物將始終是最具吸引力的飼料。

We're showing no additional questions in queue at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments. .

我們目前沒有顯示隊列中的其他問題。我想將發言權轉回給 Bhullar 先生以徵求結束意見。 .

Thanks, Donna. I appreciate everyone joining us today. Obviously, if you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the IR team. Thanks, everyone, and have a great week.

謝謝，唐娜。我感謝今天加入我們的每一個人。顯然，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝大家，祝你度過愉快的一周。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或退出網絡廣播，然後享受接下來的一天。