瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Valero's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Valero 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹您的主持人，投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝你。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Joe Gorder, our Chairman and CEO; and Lane Riggs, our President and COO; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早上好，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corporation 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官喬·戈德；我們的總裁兼首席運營官 Lane Riggs； Jason Fraser，我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官；我們的執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Gary Simmons；以及 Valero 高級管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到收益發布並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站investorvalero.com 上找到一份。收益發布還附有表格，這些表格提供了有關我們業務部門的額外財務信息以及本次電話會議中提到的調整指標的對賬和披露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請在通話後隨時聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our filings with the SEC.

我現在想提請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，它表示新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測的陳述是前瞻性陳述，旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在提交給 SEC 的文件中描述的那些。

Now I'll turn the call over to Joe for opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給喬做開場白。

Thanks, Homer, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report strong financial results for the third quarter, credited to our safe and reliable operational performance and continued strength in refining fundamentals. Refining margins remain supported by strong product demand, low product inventories and continued energy cost advantages for U.S. refineries compared to global competitors.

謝謝，荷馬，大家早上好。我們很高興地報告第三季度強勁的財務業績，這歸功於我們安全可靠的運營業績以及煉油基本面的持續實力。與全球競爭對手相比，美國煉油廠的強勁產品需求、低產品庫存和持續的能源成本優勢仍然支撐著煉油利潤率。

Despite high refinery utilization rates, global product supply remains constrained due to roughly 4 million barrels per day of global refining capacity being taken permanently off-line since 2020 for a variety of reasons, including unfavorable economics or as part of planned conversions to produce low carbon fuels. Product demand across our system remains strong, with gasoline and diesel demand higher than pre-pandemic levels, and jet fuel demand steadily approaching 2019 levels. Our refining utilization increased to 95% in the third quarter as we continue to maximize refining throughput.

儘管煉油廠利用率很高，但全球產品供應仍然受到限制，因為自 2020 年以來，全球每天約有 400 萬桶煉油產能因各種原因永久停產，包括不利的經濟狀況或作為低碳生產計劃轉換的一部分燃料。我們整個系統的產品需求依然強勁，汽油和柴油需求高於大流行前水平，航空燃料需求穩步接近 2019 年水平。隨著我們繼續最大限度地提高煉油吞吐量，我們的煉油利用率在第三季度增加到 95%。

Our refining system also benefited from wider sour crude oil differentials to the Brent light sweet crude oil benchmark. The wider sour crude oil differentials are attributed to increased sour crude oil supply, the impact of the IMO 2020 regulation for lower sulfur marine fuels and high natural gas prices in Europe that incentivize European refiners to process sweet crude oils in lieu of sour crude oils. And we remain on track with our refining growth projects that reduce cost and improve margin capture. The Port Arthur Coker project, which is expected to increase the refinery's throughput capacity, while also improving turnaround efficiency, is expected to be completed in the first half of 2023.

我們的煉油系統還受益於更廣泛的含硫原油與布倫特輕質低硫原油基準的差異。含硫原油差異擴大的原因是含硫原油供應增加、IMO 2020 對低硫船用燃料的監管以及歐洲高天然氣價格激勵歐洲煉油廠加工低硫原油代替含硫原油。我們繼續推進我們的煉油增長項目，以降低成本並提高利潤率。亞瑟港焦化項目預計將增加煉油廠的吞吐能力，同時提高周轉效率，預計將於 2023 年上半年完成。

In our renewable diesel segment, we continue to optimize our operations, setting another sales volume record in the third quarter. The new DGD 3 renewable diesel plant, located next to our Port Arthur refinery, is currently in the start-up process and is expected to be operational in November. The completion of this 470 million gallons per year plant is expected to increase DGD's total annual capacity to approximately 1.2 billion gallons of renewable diesel and 50 million gallons of renewable naphtha.

在我們的可再生柴油領域，我們繼續優化我們的運營，在第三季度創造了另一個銷量記錄。新的 DGD 3 可再生柴油工廠位於我們的亞瑟港煉油廠旁邊，目前正處於啟動過程中，預計將於 11 月投入運營。這座年產 4.7 億加侖的工廠預計將把 DGD 的年總產能提高到約 12 億加侖可再生柴油和 5000 萬加侖可再生石腦油。

And for our other low-carbon fuel opportunities, the BlackRock and Navigators carbon sequestration pipeline project is progressing on schedule and is expected to begin start-up activities in late 2024. We're expecting to be the anchor shipper with 8 of our ethanol plants connected to this system, which should provide a lower carbon intensity ethanol product and generate higher product margins. And we continue to evaluate other low-carbon opportunities such as sustainable aviation fuel, renewable hydrogen and additional renewable naphtha and carbon sequestration projects.

對於我們的其他低碳燃料機會，貝萊德和 Navigators 碳封存管道項目正在按計劃進行，預計將於 2024 年底開始啟動活動。我們預計將成為我們 8 家乙醇工廠的主力托運人連接到這個系統，它應該提供較低碳強度的乙醇產品並產生更高的產品利潤。我們將繼續評估其他低碳機會，例如可持續航空燃料、可再生氫以及其他可再生石腦油和碳封存項目。

On the financial side, our strong balance sheet remains a cornerstone of our capital allocation framework. In the third quarter, we reduced our debt by an additional $1.25 billion, bringing our total debt reduction to approximately $3.6 billion since incurring $4 billion of incremental debt during the height of the pandemic in 2020. And we will continue to further evaluate deleveraging opportunities going forward.

在財務方面，我們強勁的資產負債表仍然是我們資本配置框架的基石。在第三季度，我們額外減少了 12.5 億美元的債務，自 2020 年大流行高峰期間增加了 40 億美元的債務以來，我們的總債務減少量達到約 36 億美元。我們將繼續進一步評估去槓桿化的機會。向前。

Looking ahead, refining fundamentals remain strong as global product supply remains constrained due to capacity reductions and high natural gas prices in Europe, which are setting a higher floor on margins. In addition, we continue to realize the benefit from discounted sour crude oil and fuel oil feedstocks in our system.

展望未來，由於歐洲產能減少和天然氣價格高企，全球產品供應仍然受到限制，這為利潤率設定了更高的下限，因此煉油基本面依然強勁。此外，我們繼續從我們系統中的折扣含硫原油和燃料油原料中獲益。

While geopolitical and macroeconomic factors may drive volatility in the market, we remain focused on what we can control, maximizing refinery utilization in a safe, reliable and environmentally responsible manner to provide essential products. We also remain committed to advancing the growth of our low carbon fuels businesses to increase profitability and further strengthen our competitive advantage.

儘管地緣政治和宏觀經濟因素可能會推動市場波動，但我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情，以安全、可靠和對環境負責的方式最大限度地提高煉油廠的利用率，以提供必要的產品。我們還繼續致力於推動低碳燃料業務的增長，以提高盈利能力並進一步加強我們的競爭優勢。

So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

所以，荷馬，我會把電話交給你。

Thanks, Joe. For the third quarter of 2022, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.8 billion or $7.19 per share, compared to $463 million or $1.13 per share for the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.8 billion or $7.14 per share for the third quarter of 2022, compared to $545 million or $1.33 per share for the third quarter of 2021. For reconciliations to adjusted amounts, please refer to the earnings release and the accompanying financial tables.

謝謝，喬。 2022 年第三季度，歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨利潤為 28 億美元或每股 7.19 美元，而 2021 年第三季度為 4.63 億美元或每股 1.13 美元。調整後歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨利潤為 28 億美元或每股 7.14 美元2022 年第三季度，2021 年第三季度為 5.45 億美元或每股 1.33 美元。有關調整後金額的對賬，請參閱收益發布和隨附的財務表。

The refining segment reported $3.8 billion of operating income for the third quarter of 2022 compared to $835 million for the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted operating income for the third quarter of 2021 was $911 million. Refining throughput volumes in the third quarter of 2022 averaged 3 million barrels per day, which was 141,000 barrels per day higher than the third quarter of 2021. Throughput capacity utilization was 95% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to 91% in the third quarter of 2021.

煉油部門報告稱，2022 年第三季度的營業收入為 38 億美元，而 2021 年第三季度的營業收入為 8.35 億美元。2021 年第三季度的調整後營業收入為 9.11 億美元。 2022年第三季度煉油吞吐量平均每天300萬桶，比2021年第三季度增加14.1萬桶/天。2022年第三季度產能利用率為95%，而第三季度為91% 2021 年。

Refining cash operating expenses of $5.48 per barrel in the third quarter of 2022 were $0.95 per barrel higher than the third quarter of 2021, primarily attributed to higher natural gas prices. Renewable diesel segment operating income was $212 million for the third quarter of 2022 compared to $108 million for the third quarter of 2021. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 2.2 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2022, which was 1.6 million gallons per day higher than the third quarter of 2021. The higher sales volumes were due to DGD 1 downtime in the third quarter of 2021, resulting from Hurricane Ida, and the impact of additional volumes from DGD 2, which started up in the fourth quarter of 2021.

2022 年第三季度煉油現金運營費用為每桶 5.48 美元，比 2021 年第三季度每桶高 0.95 美元，這主要歸因於天然氣價格上漲。 2022 年第三季度可再生柴油部門營業收入為 2.12 億美元，而 2021 年第三季度為 1.08 億美元。2022 年第三季度可再生柴油銷量平均每天 220 萬加侖，比每天增加 160 萬加侖銷量高於 2021 年第三季度。銷量增加是由於颶風 Ida 造成的 2021 年第三季度 DGD 1 停機，以及 2021 年第四季度開始的 DGD 2 額外銷量的影響。

The ethanol segment reported $1 million of operating income for the third quarter of 2022 compared to a $44 million operating loss for the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted operating income for the third quarter of 2021 was $4 million. Ethanol production volumes averaged 3.5 million gallons per day in the third quarter of 2022. For the third quarter of 2022, G&A expenses were $214 million and net interest expense was $138 million.

乙醇部門報告 2022 年第三季度的營業收入為 100 萬美元，而 2021 年第三季度的營業虧損為 4400 萬美元。2021 年第三季度的調整後營業收入為 400 萬美元。 2022 年第三季度的乙醇產量平均為每天 350 萬加侖。2022 年第三季度的 G&A 費用為 2.14 億美元，淨利息費用為 1.38 億美元。

Depreciation and amortization expense was $632 million and income tax expense was $816 million for the third quarter of 2022. The effective tax rate was 22%. Net cash provided by operating activities was $2 billion in the third quarter of 2022. Excluding the unfavorable change in working capital of $1.5 billion, which was primarily due to our third quarter estimated tax payment and the other joint venture member share of DGD's net cash provided by operating activities, excluding changes in DGD's working capital, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $3.4 billion.

2022 年第三季度的折舊和攤銷費用為 6.32 億美元，所得稅費用為 8.16 億美元。有效稅率為 22%。 2022 年第三季度經營活動提供的現金淨額為 20 億美元。不包括 15 億美元的營運資金的不利變化，這主要是由於我們第三季度估計的稅款和其他合資企業成員在 DGD 提供的淨現金中的份額按經營活動計算，不包括 DGD 營運資金的變化，經調整的經營活動提供的現金淨額為 34 億美元。

With regard to investing activities, we made $602 million of capital investments in the third quarter of 2022, of which $185 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and $417 million was for growing the business. Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture members share of DGD and those related to other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $479 million in the third quarter of 2022.

在投資活動方面，我們在 2022 年第三季度進行了 6.02 億美元的資本投資，其中 1.85 億美元用於維持業務，包括周轉、催化劑和合規成本，4.17 億美元用於發展業務。不包括歸屬於 DGD 其他合資成員股份的資本投資以及與其他可變利益實體相關的資本投資，2022 年第三季度歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資為 4.79 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. Year-to-date, we have returned 40% of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities to our stockholders through dividends and stock buybacks, which is consistent with our guidance to be at the low end of our annual 40% to 50% target payout ratio, while focusing on deleveraging our balance sheet. With respect to our balance sheet, we completed another debt reduction transaction in the third quarter that reduced Valero's debt by $1.25 billion. As Joe noted earlier, this transaction, combined with a series of debt reduction and refinancing transactions since the second half of 2021, have collectively reduced Valero's debt by approximately $3.6 billion.

轉向融資活動。年初至今，我們已通過股息和股票回購將經營活動提供的調整後淨現金的 40% 返還給我們的股東，這與我們的指導一致，即我們的年度目標支出為 40% 至 50% 的低端比率，同時專注於去槓桿化我們的資產負債表。關於我們的資產負債表，我們在第三季度完成了另一項減債交易，使 Valero 的債務減少了 12.5 億美元。正如喬早些時候指出的那樣，這筆交易，加上自 2021 年下半年以來的一系列債務減免和再融資交易，總共使 Valero 的債務減少了約 36 億美元。

We ended the quarter with $9.6 billion of total debt, $1.9 billion of finance lease obligations and $4 billion of cash and cash equivalents. The debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash and cash equivalents, was approximately 24%, down from the pandemic high of 40% at the end of March 2021, which was largely the result of the debt incurred during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $4.9 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

截至本季度末，我們的總債務為 96 億美元，融資租賃義務為 19 億美元，現金及現金等價物為 40 億美元。扣除現金和現金等價物後的債務資本化比率約為 24%，低於 2021 年 3 月底的 40% 的疫情高點，這主要是由於在 COVID 高峰期間產生的債務-19 大流行。我們在本季度結束時資本充足，可用流動資金為 49 億美元，不包括現金。

Turning to guidance. We expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2022 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts and joint venture investments. About 60% of that amount is allocated to sustaining the business and 40% to growth. About half of the growth capital in 2022 is allocated to expanding our low carbon fuels businesses.

轉向指導。我們預計 2022 年歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括轉型、催化劑和合資企業投資的支出。其中約 60% 用於維持業務，40% 用於增長。 2022 年大約一半的增長資本用於擴展我們的低碳燃料業務。

For modeling our fourth quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.73 million to 1.78 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 460,000 to 480,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 250,000 to 270,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 440,000 to 460,000 barrels per day. We expect refining cash operating expenses in the fourth quarter to be approximately $5.10 per barrel.

對於我們第四季度的運營建模，我們預計煉油吞吐量將在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸每天 173 萬至 178 萬桶；中部大陸，每天 460,000 至 480,000 桶；西海岸，每天 250,000 至 270,000 桶；和北大西洋，每天 440,000 至 460,000 桶。我們預計第四季度煉油現金運營費用約為每桶 5.10 美元。

With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 750 million gallons in 2022 with the anticipated start-up of DGD 3 in November. Operating expenses in 2022 should be $0.45 per gallon, which includes $0.15 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

關於可再生柴油細分市場，我們預計 2022 年的銷量約為 7.5 億加侖，預計 11 月將啟動 DGD 3。 2022 年的運營費用應為每加侖 0.45 美元，其中包括折舊和攤銷等非現金成本每加侖 0.15 美元。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.1 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.50 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization. For the fourth quarter, net interest expense should be about $140 million and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $640 million. For 2022, we expect G&A expenses, excluding corporate depreciation, to be approximately $870 million.

我們的乙醇部門預計在第四季度每天生產 410 萬加侖。運營費用平均應為每加侖 0.50 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤銷。第四季度，淨利息支出約為 1.4 億美元，折舊和攤銷總額約為 6.4 億美元。到 2022 年，我們預計 G&A 費用（不包括公司折舊）約為 8.7 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. Before we open the call to questions, please adhere to our protocol of limiting each turn in the Q&A to 2 questions. If you have more than 2 questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits. Please respect this request to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

我們的開場白到此結束。在我們打開問題電話之前，請遵守我們將問答中的每一輪限制為 2 個問題的協議。如果您有超過 2 個問題，請在時間允許的情況下重新加入隊列。請尊重此要求，以確保其他來電者有時間提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is coming from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Joe, I wonder if I could take the opportunity to ask just your views on a couple of big picture macro issues. I mean, in the quarter, your operational performance speaks for itself. I'm obviously delighted to see the cash returns back with the buyback. But my question, I guess, is your visit to the White House recently and your thoughts on the possibility of an export ban, product export ban that seems to be still rumbling on the table. So any color you are comfortable sharing there would be my first comment. And then my second question, if I may, maybe it's for Lane or one of the guys. But you did make a comment in your results about a higher floor on margins. I'm just wondering, I think you know our view on this, I'm wondering if you could elaborate on what you're trying to imply from that commentary. And I'll leave it there.

喬，我想知道我是否可以藉此機會僅詢問您對幾個宏觀問題的看法。我的意思是，在本季度，您的運營業績不言自明。我顯然很高興看到回購帶來的現金回報。但我想，我的問題是您最近訪問白宮以及您對出口禁令的可能性的看法，產品出口禁令似乎仍在討論中。因此，您願意分享的任何顏色都會是我的第一條評論。然後我的第二個問題，如果可以的話，也許是給萊恩或其中一個人的。但是你確實在你的結果中評論了更高的利潤率。我只是想知道，我想你知道我們對此的看法，我想知道你是否可以詳細說明你試圖從該評論中暗示什麼。我會把它留在那裡。

No, Doug, that's great. Both good questions. So on the visit to the White House, Lane and I went in and of course, there were 7 companies, I think, represented there. We ended up meeting with Secretary Granholm. And I would say that it was a constructive conversation. She was looking for things that the industry might suggest that would try to bring down the cost of fuels. And so we did, we provided her with several suggestions which would have an effect on increasing the supply of fuel into the marketplace. Thus far, I don't believe any of those have been embraced, but at least it was put on the table for her to give it some consideration to.

不，道格，那太好了。兩個好問題。所以在訪問白宮時，我和萊恩進去了，當然，我認為那裡有 7 家公司代表。我們最終與格蘭霍爾姆部長會面。我會說這是一次建設性的對話。她正在尋找該行業可能提出的可以降低燃料成本的東西。所以我們這樣做了，我們向她提供了一些建議，這些建議將對增加市場的燃料供應產生影響。到目前為止，我不相信其中任何一個已經被接受，但至少它被擺在桌面上讓她考慮一下。

And so the team that we have involved in the process continues to work with her team. So the dialogue has continued. I know that our D.C. office has spent quite a bit of time continuing to work with them. And then, of course, the supply folks back here also have been involved in those conversations. So the dialogue continues, and I think they're looking for just additional opportunities that they might have to reduce the fuel price.

因此，我們參與該過程的團隊將繼續與她的團隊合作。於是對話繼續。我知道我們的華盛頓特區辦公室已經花了很多時間繼續與他們合作。然後，當然，這裡的供應人員也參與了這些對話。所以對話仍在繼續，我認為他們正在尋找他們可能不得不降低燃料價格的額外機會。

So Rich, is there anything you would add to that? You or Lane?

如此豐富，你有什麼要補充的嗎？你還是萊恩？

No, I don't think so. I mean, I think they understand the consequences of trying to disrupt market flows. And I think they realized that, that would probably be more harmful than helpful. And so I think that understanding is there. So I know they're looking at a lot of options, but I think that's the understanding they have from the industry at least.

不，我不這麼認為。我的意思是，我認為他們理解試圖擾亂市場流動的後果。我認為他們意識到，這可能弊大於利。所以我認為理解是存在的。所以我知道他們正在考慮很多選擇，但我認為這是他們至少從行業中獲得的理解。

Yes. So that's as it relates to the potential ban on exports, Doug. I mean, I do think they understand the consequences of that. And I think the general consensus is, it wouldn't have the effect that they're trying to achieve. And then you want to take the second question?

是的。所以這與潛在的出口禁令有關，道格。我的意思是，我確實認為他們明白這樣做的後果。我認為普遍的共識是，它不會產生他們想要達到的效果。然後你想回答第二個問題？

Yes, sure. Doug, it's Lane. From a work process, we define the mid-cycle as being sort of the average margin of a few tweaks that we think are market anomalies that go through the entire business cycle. So we're not through the next business cycle yet, but we do believe structurally, you've had interperiod where we've had refinery closures through the pandemic. You're going to have probably not as much investment in the fossil fuel industry, in particular, refining going forward at the time when everybody is trying to understand exactly how the balances are going to work. But our view is, it'll be a higher call on refining capacity. So we don't -- we're not prepared to quantify that, but we do believe the next mid-cycle will be higher than the last mid-cycle.

是的，當然。道格，我是萊恩。從工作流程來看，我們將周期中期定義為一些調整的平均利潤率，我們認為這些調整是貫穿整個商業周期的市場異常。因此，我們還沒有度過下一個商業周期，但我們確實相信，從結構上講，你們已經經歷了一段時期，我們在大流行期間關閉了煉油廠。你可能不會對化石燃料行業進行太多投資，特別是在每個人都試圖準確了解平衡將如何運作的時候，精煉。但我們的觀點是，這將是對煉油能力的更高要求。所以我們不 - 我們不准備量化它，但我們確實相信下一個中期週期將高於上一個中期週期。

Guys, forgive me for the quick follow-up, but there's a lot of concern, I guess, of Chinese exports hitting the market and obviously new capacity expansion, Lane. So I just wonder if you could throw that into your consideration. Is that a concern for you guys in that definition of mid-cycle? I will leave it there.

伙計們，請原諒我的快速跟進，但我猜，很多人擔心中國出口產品會衝擊市場，而且顯然是新的產能擴張，Lane。所以我只是想知道您是否可以將其納入考慮範圍。在中期週期的定義中，這對你們來說是一個問題嗎？我會把它留在那裡。

There has been a talk about -- we've seen some increases with respect to at least on the prompt that the Chinese are picking up purchases, but I don't know that we've really seen them in the market on products that much. I'm looking at Gary, by the way.

有人談論過——至少在中國人開始增加購買的提示方面，我們看到了一些增加，但我不知道我們真的在市場上看到了那麼多的產品.順便說一句，我正在看著加里。

No. I think our traders believe most of the Chinese exports are going to stay in the region. And then even if you kind of assume some of it comes into the North Atlantic Basin, in the short term, the French refinery strikes are really offsetting any of that. And longer term, it looks like to us, any incremental volume coming out of China will be offset by further reductions in exports from Russia as the sanctions are ramped up.

不會。我認為我們的貿易商相信大部分中國出口產品將留在該地區。然後即使你有點假設其中一些進入北大西洋盆地，在短期內，法國煉油廠的罷工確實抵消了其中的任何一部分。從長遠來看，在我們看來，隨著制裁的加強，來自中國的任何增量都將被俄羅斯出口的進一步減少所抵消。

And then on a longer-term basis, just whether Europeans and North America and everyone else is sort of under ESG pressure aren't really trying to increase refining capacity. So if there is a region of the world that's going to raise refining capacity, that will probably be India and China.

然後從長遠來看，歐洲和北美以及其他所有人是否在某種程度上承受 ESG 壓力並沒有真正試圖提高煉油能力。因此，如果世界上有一個地區要提高煉油能力，那可能是印度和中國。

The next question is coming from John Royall of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So you talked about bulletproofing your balance sheet in the prior quarter, and you mentioned evaluating further reductions in your prepared remarks. How much lower would you like to get on your leverage before you kind of get to that bulletproof level where you can move off the low end of the 40% to 50% returns? Or do you think you're already there?

因此，您談到了在上一季度對您的資產負債表進行防彈，並且您提到評估您準備好的評論中的進一步減少。在您達到可以擺脫 40% 至 50% 回報率的低端的防彈水平之前，您希望將槓桿降低多少？或者你認為你已經在那裡了？

John, that's a good question. We'll let Jason take a swack at it here.

約翰，這是個好問題。我們會讓傑森在這裡試一試。

Yes. As we've been talking about, we're still working on paying down our COVID debt. We have about $432 million left to have paid off the full $4 billion after accounting for the tender offer, we did in this third quarter. So we're working our debt down with -- and let's see on the cash side, we're at a $4 billion cash balance, we talked about how, going forward, we like to hold more cash at $3 billion to $4 billion probably on the base level. But if you're looking at potentially higher flat price levels or economic downturn, you maybe want to hold a little bit more. So we buy us to the upper end of that. So we're close to a good spot on both of those.

是的。正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們仍在努力償還我們的 COVID 債務。在考慮了要約收購後，我們還剩下大約 4.32 億美元來償還全部 40 億美元，我們在第三季度就這樣做了。所以我們正在減少我們的債務——讓我們看看現金方面，我們有 40 億美元的現金餘額，我們談到瞭如何，展望未來，我們希望持有更多的現金，可能在 30 億到 40 億美元之間在基礎層面。但是，如果您正在考慮潛在的更高的固定價格水平或經濟衰退，您可能希望持有更多。所以我們把我們買到了高端。所以我們在這兩個方面都接近一個好位置。

On a long-term net debt to cap, we have a 20% to 30% range that we target. We're at 24.5% now at the end of the third quarter, down from 40% at the highest point during COVID. So we've been working in the right direction. I'd like to be even lower; you'd like to be at the 20% range to give you more financial flexibility going forward. So that's kind of an overview.

在長期淨債務上限方面，我們的目標範圍為 20% 至 30%。到第三季度末，我們現在是 24.5%，低於 COVID 期間最高點的 40%。所以我們一直在朝著正確的方向努力。我想要更低；您希望在 20% 的範圍內為您提供更多的財務靈活性。所以這是一個概述。

So we're getting close to the point where, I mean, the low end of the range wouldn't necessarily be the target anymore.

所以我們已經接近了這個點，我的意思是，範圍的低端不一定是目標。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe you could talk about refining captures and how they're looking so far in 4Q. I know we have, at least in October, a rising price environment, but also you're seeing some tailwinds from heavy dips. So any color there just generally would be helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許你可以談談改進捕獲以及它們在第四季度到目前為止的表現。我知道，至少在 10 月份，我們的價格環境正在上漲，但你也看到了大幅下跌帶來的一些順風。因此，通常那裡的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

This is Lane. The heavy dips are baked into our margin indicators to some degree. So those will move with it. I think, and all things being equal, when you compare the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and this is really in any given year, you'll see a blending of butane benefit. So if you hold all the other things constant, our capture rates are to marginally improved because we're going to be on more butane in the fourth quarter than we did in the third quarter. And obviously, if flat price moves up or down, byproducts have enough to effect. So those are all still intact.

這是萊恩。大幅下跌在一定程度上體現在我們的保證金指標中。所以那些會隨之而動。我認為，在所有條件相同的情況下，當您將第三季度與第四季度進行比較時，這實際上是在任何一年中，您都會看到丁烷的好處。因此，如果您保持所有其他因素不變，我們的捕獲率將略有提高，因為我們將在第四季度使用比第三季度更多的丁烷。顯然，如果平價上漲或下跌，副產品就足以產生影響。所以這些都還完好無損。

But your biggest contribution to margin capture really is gasoline and diesel. So we'll just see. But the main thing to always keep in mind going from third quarter to fourth quarter is blending of butane.

但你對利潤的最大貢獻確實是汽油和柴油。所以我們拭目以待。但是從第三季度到第四季度要始終牢記的主要事情是丁烷的混合。

The next question is coming from Theresa Chen of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

I wanted to ask about your comments related to demand across your footprint first. Your wholesale volumes being very strong through last quarter, and currently, when you talk about demand surpassing 2019 levels for gasoline and diesel, is that primarily driven by strengthening your export channels? Is domestic demand in your areas of service equally strong? I'd like to get a sense of what's happening there.

我想先詢問您對整個足蹟的需求的評論。您的批發量在上個季度非常強勁，目前，當您談到汽油和柴油的需求超過 2019 年的水平時，這主要是由加強您的出口渠道推動的嗎？您所在服務領域的國內需求是否同樣強勁？我想了解那裡發生了什麼。

Theresa, this is Gary. Really, it's the domestic markets and our wholesale volumes have trended considerably higher. We set a wholesale volume record in August. We beat that in September, and we're on pace to beat it again in October. So wholesale volumes continue to trend higher. If you look at the pump market through our wholesale channels of trade, gasoline is trending about 8% above where we were prepandemic levels. Diesel volumes are trending about 32% above where we were prepandemic levels. So seeing really strong domestic demand through our wholesale channel of trade.

特蕾莎，這是加里。真的，這是國內市場，我們的批發量有相當高的趨勢。我們在八月份創下了批發量記錄。我們在 9 月擊敗了它，我們正在努力在 10 月再次擊敗它。因此批發量繼續呈上升趨勢。如果您通過我們的批發貿易渠道查看泵市場，汽油的趨勢是比我們大流行前的水平高出約 8%。柴油銷量的趨勢是比我們大流行前的水平高出約 32%。因此，通過我們的批發貿易渠道看到了非常強勁的國內需求。

Got it. And in relation to the high European natural gas prices supporting higher margins. Given the recent decline in TTF and Europe natural gas storage over 93% full, lowering that Henry Hub to TTF spread. Do you see any risk for a pullback of margins as a result over the near term, while longer term, I imagine just depends on the pace of liquefaction build-out?

知道了。並且與支持更高利潤率的歐洲高天然氣價格有關。鑑於最近 TTF 和歐洲天然氣儲存量下降超過 93%，降低了 Henry Hub 到 TTF 的價差。您是否認為短期內利潤率回落有任何風險，而長期來看，我想這取決於液化建設的步伐？

But I'll try, I'll take a shot at it and then Gary can sort of in my comments. We still need to reinventory the Atlantic Basin with diesel. By and large, we're still -- when you look at stocks, they're slow. Most of what's happening in Europe when you have all these LNG ships that are sort of floating down, you still are limited on the regasification of everything. So we'll just have to see how it plays out. But certainly in the last couple of weeks, at least for our Pembroke refinery, natural gas prices have fallen.

但我會嘗試，我會試一試，然後加里可以在我的評論中進行排序。我們仍然需要用柴油重新盤點大西洋盆地。總的來說，我們仍然 - 當你看股票時，它們很慢。在歐洲發生的大多數情況下，當所有這些液化天然氣船都在漂浮時，你仍然受限於所有東西的再氣化。所以我們只需要看看它是如何發揮作用的。但可以肯定的是，在過去的幾周里，至少對於我們的彭布羅克煉油廠來說，天然氣價格已經下跌。

The next question is coming from Sam Margolin of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin。

So we definitely see evidence, everybody does, of this structurally higher margin environment. But more than just kind of through cycle margins being higher, the market is also sort of characterized by anomalies like a very high frequency of sort of regional blowouts or single commodity events within the stream. And I was wondering if you could just maybe speak broadly to that, not to ask too open ended of a question, but just is that -- are things like this a function of kind of capacity coming down globally or just a very tight market on an underlying basis? Or it is really just a coincidence where we've had kind of a bunch of one-off things happen in sequence and that might not necessarily be a go-forward trend?

因此，我們肯定看到了這種結構性更高利潤環境的證據，每個人都看到了。但不僅僅是通過週期利潤率較高，市場還具有異常現象，例如非常高頻率的區域井噴或流中的單一商品事件。我想知道你是否可以泛泛而談，不要問一個過於開放的問題，而只是——這樣的事情是全球產能下降的結果，還是只是一個非常緊張的市場基礎？或者這真的只是一個巧合，我們有一堆一次性的事情依次發生，這可能不一定是一個前進的趨勢？

Yes. So I think some of it is structural. I think, as Joe alluded too in his opening, we had a lot of refinery rationalization, refining capacity converted to produce low carbon fuels. And so much tighter supply-demand balances, which structurally means a stronger market. Some of the things you talked about on market dislocation could be more transient in nature. A lot of that is just a function of very, very low product inventories, especially in the domestic markets.

是的。所以我認為其中一些是結構性的。我認為，正如喬在開幕式中所提到的那樣，我們對煉油廠進行了很多合理化，將煉油能力轉化為生產低碳燃料。如此多的供需平衡收緊，這在結構上意味著更強勁的市場。你談到的關於市場錯位的一些事情在本質上可能更加短暫。其中很多只是產品庫存非常非常低的結果，尤其是在國內市場。

I think we feel like through the winter period of time, you could see some restocking of gasoline, which could prevent some of those market dislocations from happening at least in the short term. Diesel, on the other hand, looks to us to be remain very, very tight, and I think you'll continue to see volatility in the markets due to very low inventory.

我認為我們覺得在整個冬季期間，您可能會看到一些汽油的補充庫存，這至少可以在短期內防止其中一些市場混亂的發生。另一方面，柴油在我們看來仍然非常非常緊張，我認為由於庫存非常低，您將繼續看到市場波動。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on DGD and the start-up timing. In the past, when you guys start up a DGD unit, we can see feedstock prices or the veg oil complex sort of respond. And this year, I don't know if it's a timing issue where it hasn't really started yet in earnest or if the market has just adjusted to that demand ahead of time. But it seems like the feedstock environment has tolerated new starting capacity a little bit better than in the past, if you have any thoughts about just DGD 3 into the feedstock background, that would be helpful.

好的。然後只是對 DGD 和啟動時間的跟進。過去，當你們啟動 DGD 裝置時，我們可以看到原料價格或植物油綜合體的反應。今年，我不知道這是一個時間問題，它還沒有真正開始，還是市場只是提前適應了這種需求。但似乎原料環境比過去更能容忍新的啟動能力，如果您對原料背景中的 DGD 3 有任何想法，那將是有幫助的。

Yes, this is Eric. I think what your observations are correct. We are not seeing the increase in feedstock prices like we did with DGD 2 this time last year. Thinking about some causes of that, I think some of it is, given refining margins, the conversion projects that had been announced, I think, have largely been deferred or delayed. And with the drop in LCFS prices, I think a lot of the projects have been deferred and delayed.

是的，這是埃里克。我認為你的觀察是正確的。我們沒有看到像去年這個時候 DGD 2 那樣的原料價格上漲。考慮到其中的一些原因，我認為其中一些原因是，考慮到煉油利潤，我認為已宣布的轉換項目在很大程度上被推遲或推遲了。而且隨著 LCFS 價格的下降，我認為很多項目都被推遲和推遲了。

So if you look, we just not -- we have not seen the increase in feedstock prices like we did last year with DGD 3 starting up. And we have bought feedstock for the start-up in this quarter.

因此，如果您看一下，我們只是沒有看到原料價格的上漲，就像我們去年在 DGD 3 啟動時所做的那樣。我們已經為本季度的啟動購買了原料。

The next question is coming from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe one follow-up immediately on Diamond Green Diesel. You've been in a pretty rapid expansion mode at DGD over the last couple of years. With the start-up of DGD 3, will you take a pause here to kind of digest and evaluate for market conditions for a bit? Or how do you think about the strategic direction of Diamond Green Diesel unit over the next 5 years in terms of priorities there?

也許立即跟進 Diamond Green Diesel。在過去的幾年裡，你在 DGD 處於非常快速的擴張模式。隨著 DGD 3 的啟動，您會在這裡暫停一下以消化和評估一下市場狀況嗎？或者您如何看待 Diamond Green Diesel 部門未來 5 年的戰略方向？

Yes. I think like we've talked about this quarter and last quarter, LCFS prices continue to drop. And I think that is taking a lot of the fun away in this space. And so as you look across the industry, a lot of projects are getting deferred and delayed. And given the high energy prices across the world, everyone is kind of rethinking a lot of their policies. So we have to -- especially in Europe, you have to step back and see, are they going to continue the path and pace that they have been on historically?

是的。我認為就像我們在本季度和上個季度談到的那樣，LCFS 價格繼續下跌。我認為這會帶走這個領域的很多樂趣。因此，縱觀整個行業，許多項目都被推遲和推遲。鑑於世界各地的高能源價格，每個人都在重新考慮他們的許多政策。所以我們必須——尤其是在歐洲，你必須退後一步看看，他們是否會繼續他們歷史上的道路和步伐？

So I think after DGD 3, we've said we will pause, reassess the market. I think SAF is becoming a lot more interesting. But overall, I think there is a -- there will be a pause after DGD 3.

所以我認為在 DGD 3 之後，我們已經說過我們會暫停，重新評估市場。我認為 SAF 變得越來越有趣。但總的來說，我認為在 DGD 3 之後會有一個暫停。

And then maybe you mentioned it briefly in passing earlier, and I know it's a little speculative, but any thoughts on how you think trade routes and supply chains get impacted if you expand on Russian product imports goes into effect early next year? Is there a logical home for some of that Russian product to make its way to someplace else, South America or Africa, et cetera? Or do you think those Russian barrels just kind of go away and refining utilization falls dramatically there?

然後也許你早些時候順便提到了它，我知道這有點投機，但你認為如果擴大俄羅斯產品進口將如何影響貿易路線和供應鏈，明年年初生效？某些俄羅斯產品是否有一個合乎邏輯的家可以進入其他地方，南美或非洲等等？還是您認為那些俄羅斯桶會消失，那裡的煉油利用率會急劇下降？

Our view is that you will see a reduction in Russian exports of primarily diesel, they export a little bit of naphtha, not much gasoline. But on the diesel side, you will see a reduction in exports. You do have the potential for some of those barrels to find homes in South America and Africa, as you mentioned. But we kind of believe diplomatic pressures from the U.S. and from Europe will kind of keep a lot of that from happening, and you will see a reduction in exports from Russia.

我們的觀點是，您將看到俄羅斯主要出口柴油的減少，他們出口少量石腦油，而不是大量汽油。但在柴油方面，您會看到出口減少。正如你所提到的，你確實有可能讓其中一些桶在南美和非洲找到家。但我們有點相信來自美國和歐洲的外交壓力會阻止很多這樣的事情發生，你會看到來自俄羅斯的出口減少。

The next question is coming from Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.

下一個問題來自 Sankey Research 的 Paul Sankey。

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

We can, Paul?

我們可以，保羅？

Can you hear me, Joe?

你能聽到我說話嗎，喬？

Yes, sir, we can.

是的，先生，我們可以。

Cool. Can you talk a little bit about the strategic petroleum reserve release? Joe, you mentioned a few things that made -- so crude discounts wider, but my understanding was a lot of the drawdown in the SPR was crude. I was just wondering how much the SPR has affected you, I guess, operationally and from a profit point of view and what your outlook is for the coming months. I would assume that you're anticipating that we taper and even start reducing the crude.

涼爽的。你能談談戰略石油儲備釋放嗎？喬，你提到了一些導致 - 如此粗略的折扣更大的事情，但我的理解是 SPR 的很多縮編是粗略的。我只是想知道 SPR 對您的影響有多大，我猜，從運營和利潤的角度來看，以及您對未來幾個月的展望。我會假設你預計我們會逐漸減少甚至開始減少原油。

Yes. So really, what we saw is with each of the SPR options, we have good logistics at our Gulf Coast assets to be able to receive the barrels. A lot of people really don't have the logistics in place to be able to take those barrels. So certainly, early on, they were more sour barrels, and we took a good volume of the SPR volume as it transition to more sweeter. We still saw value in our system to take those barrels and we would expect that to continue moving forward as long as they're offering the very loans.

是的。所以真的，我們看到的是每個 SPR 選項，我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的資產擁有良好的物流，能夠接收桶。很多人真的沒有適當的後勤能力來拿走這些桶。所以當然，在早期，它們是更酸的桶，我們在 SPR 體積過渡到更甜的過程中提取了大量的 SPR 體積。我們仍然在我們的系統中看到了獲取這些桶的價值，我們預計只要他們提供貸款，這種情況就會繼續向前發展。

I know you're anticipating continuing drawdowns through, let's say, 2023, or do you think they will have to start eventually?

我知道你預計到 2023 年會繼續縮水，還是你認為它們最終必須開始？

I think you'll continue to see drawdowns at least through this year and then start to see some restocking happen next year.

我認為你至少會在今年繼續看到縮編，然後明年開始看到一些補充庫存。

The next question is coming from Connor Lynagh of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的康納·林納。

I wanted to return to a topic that you mentioned briefly earlier, which is the suggestion that you made to the administration on potential pathways for reducing fuel costs. I'm curious if you could just provide a little color on the things that the industry suggested.

我想回到你之前簡要提到的一個話題，那就是你向政府提出的關於降低燃料成本的潛在途徑的建議。我很好奇您是否可以為行業建議的內容提供一點顏色。

Well, Lane and I were both there. So do you want to talk about it first?

好吧，萊恩和我都在那裡。所以你想先談談嗎？

Sure. I think -- yes, this is Lane. So I think the -- there's 2 main ones, which was -- 1 was increasing or relaxing the sulfur spec on fuels. Many of the U.S. refiners didn't necessarily invest, and it looks like either making ultra-low-sulfur diesel as much as maybe some others or Tier 3 gasoline. So consequently, they're in a posture of having to export. Some of those -- some gasoline and some diesel to markets around the world that can handle the sulfur. So that was really, I think, the 2 big ones. I mean, obviously, a part of that meeting was meant to see if there was any possibility if somebody could start a refinery up and we discuss -- the industry discuss the difficulty in doing that. And that was really the main coming ones.

當然。我想——是的，這是萊恩。所以我認為 - 有兩個主要的，即 - 一個是增加或放寬燃料的硫含量。許多美國煉油廠並不一定投資，看起來要么像其他一些製造商那樣製造超低硫柴油，要么製造 Tier 3 汽油。因此，他們處於不得不出口的狀態。其中一些——一些汽油和一些柴油銷往世界各地的市場，可以處理硫磺。所以我認為這真的是兩個大的。我的意思是，顯然，那次會議的一部分是為了看看是否有人可以開辦煉油廠，我們討論——業界討論這樣做的困難。這真的是主要的未來。

I mean, yes, waving specs really on products was what we talked about. The 1 interesting thing, Connor, that came out of it, too, was there was consideration for the ability to restart refining capacity that had been shut down. And I think the general sentiment was that, that wasn't going to happen. Of course, we're not in that boat. But I mean, people had very good reasons for making the decisions that they made, and they weren't in a position to unwind those decisions. So the solution is going to probably have to come from some waiving of regulation or just reduction in demand, which we just haven't seen to date.

我的意思是，是的，我們談論的是真正在產品上揮舞規格。康納也從中產生了一件有趣的事情，那就是考慮重新啟動已關閉的煉油能力的能力。我認為普遍的看法是，這不會發生。當然，我們不在那條船上。但我的意思是，人們有很好的理由做出他們做出的決定，而且他們無法解除這些決定。因此，解決方案可能必須來自一些監管的豁免或只是減少需求，這是我們迄今為止還沒有看到的。

Makes sense. Semi-related policy question, just given that the Inflation Reduction Act is maybe had a bit of time to be digested by the market or players out there that you talk to. What types of opportunities are you seeing as more likely or more in the money with the incentives in that bill?

說得通。半相關的政策問題，只是考慮到《通脹降低法案》可能有一點時間被市場或與你交談的參與者消化。在該法案中的激勵措施下，您認為哪些類型的機會更有可能或更多？

This is Rich Walsh. I'll take just a high-level effort on it and then kind of give you an idea. I mean, we're really -- we're focusing on a number of things. One is that they have clean energy tax credits in there that are enacted, that are really an extension of the BTC, the Blenders Tax Credit, which is helpful to us. There's also tax credits there for sustainable aviation fuel. And I think Eric mentioned earlier that makes it more interesting for us to look at. And additionally, there's additions for the 45Q tax credit, which we think strongly supports carbon sequestration, and we think you're going to see more opportunities to develop around that.

這是里奇沃爾什。我會在上面做一些高水平的工作，然後給你一個想法。我的意思是，我們真的 - 我們正在關註一些事情。一是他們在那裡制定了清潔能源稅收抵免，這實際上是 BTC 的延伸，即 Blenders 稅收抵免，這對我們很有幫助。那裡還有可持續航空燃料的稅收抵免。我認為 Eric 之前提到過，這讓我們更感興趣。此外，還增加了 45Q 稅收抵免，我們認為這有力地支持了碳封存，我們認為您將看到更多圍繞它發展的機會。

The next question is coming from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions, hopefully, short. First one is for Lane. I think, back in the first quarter conference call, you gave a number of $8 in the diesel crack advantage for U.S. refiner versus Europe because of the natural gas price gap. And at the time, you're using, say, you need is $25 gap. Since then, we have seen the European refiner essentially cut their natural gas consumption by half. So curious that, is there an updated number you can share? And is it -- we need that cut from $8 to $4, just linear or that we can't really do in that way? Secondly, that -- and also that, if you can give us what is your natural gas exposure by operating region for you guys?

兩個問題，希望是簡短的。第一個是給萊恩的。我認為，早在第一季度電話會議上，由於天然氣價格差距，您就美國煉油廠與歐洲的柴油裂解優勢給出了 8 美元的數字。當時，您正在使用，例如，您需要 25 美元的差距。從那時起，我們看到這家歐洲煉油廠基本上將其天然氣消耗量減少了一半。很好奇，有更新的號碼可以分享嗎？是不是 - 我們需要從 8 美元削減到 4 美元，只是線性的，或者我們真的不能那樣做？其次，那個 - 還有那個，如果你能告訴我們你們工作區域的天然氣暴露量是多少？

The second question is on DGD. I think that the joint venture so forward on the diesel contract as a part of the hedge operation. So in backwardation curve, you had heard -- in the third quarter, I think the backwardation curve is substantially less than second quarter. So we were surprised your margin capture didn't improve comparing you to your benchmark indicator. Is there anything going on we should be aware that lead to that or anything -- any insight you can provide?

第二個問題是關於 DGD。我認為合資公司因此對柴油合同的遠期作為對沖操作的一部分。所以在現貨溢價曲線中，你聽說過——在第三季度，我認為現貨溢價曲線大大低於第二季度。因此，與基準指標相比，我們對您的保證金捕獲沒有改善感到驚訝。有什麼我們應該知道的事情會導致那個或任何事情——你能提供什麼見解嗎？

Paul, I'll try to come back to that first question a little bit. But you're accurate in what I had stated in the first quarter. Today, what we're seeing, at least in our (inaudible) refineries, natural gas prices have fallen. But I think what you're seeing in the Atlantic Basin, you're seeing in the diesel crack, is the advantage is lower, but you still have a wide diesel crack. And that's because a lot of the refineries that are having, that sort of reinventory the Atlantic Basin, are looking to running a lot of sweeter crudes because they can't meet the fuel oil spec, right? So they end up bidding up in the industry or at least the marginal guy out there is bidding up bidding up the sort of the low sulfur crude price to try to meet the demand in the Atlantic Basin.

保羅，我會試著回到第一個問題。但你在我第一季度所說的話是準確的。今天，我們所看到的，至少在我們的（聽不清）煉油廠，天然氣價格已經下跌。但我認為你在大西洋盆地看到的，你在柴油裂縫中看到的，是優勢較低，但你仍然有一個廣泛的柴油裂縫。那是因為很多煉油廠，即大西洋盆地的那種重新庫存，正在尋求運行大量更甜的原油，因為它們不能滿足燃料油規格，對吧？因此，他們最終在該行業中抬高價格，或者至少是邊緣人士在抬高低硫原油價格，以試圖滿足大西洋盆地的需求。

And you're seeing that in discount, you're seeing medium sour getting cheaper, you're seeing heavy sour getting cheaper. Part of that is also a function of redirection of all the Russian trade flow. So that's really in terms of a prompt basis, what's driving the heat crack. I don't know that Europe solved this natural gas problem. We're just going to see. There's a lot of tankers sitting offshore trying to regas. And so we'll just see how that goes.

而且你看到打折，你看到中等酸變得更便宜，你看到重酸變得更便宜。其中一部分也是所有俄羅斯貿易流重新定向的功能。所以這真的是一個迅速的基礎，是什麼推動了熱裂。我不知道歐洲解決了這個天然氣問題。我們只是去看看。有很多油輪坐在近海試圖重新加油。因此，我們將看看情況如何。

Eric, do you want to...

埃里克，你想...

Lane, before you go on that one. I'm just curious that, I mean, is the advantage U.S. refiner versus Europe on the natural gas price gap, does it impact that advantage when the European refiner cut their natural gas consumption? Or that doesn't really -- that's not how it should be calculated or (inaudible)?

萊恩，在你繼續那個之前。我只是好奇，我的意思是，美國煉油廠與歐洲在天然氣價格差距上的優勢是什麼，當歐洲煉油廠削減天然氣消費量時，它會影響這種優勢嗎？或者那不是真的 - 這不是它應該如何計算或（聽不清）？

What I'm saying is versus the fourth quarter first quarter really up until about 3 weeks ago, there was an advantage that you could see they were paying higher cost of fuel. We could also see, when we use our Pembroke refinery as a proxy, we were through that, right? In other words, even though now we eliminated all of our natural gas purchases, but what we could see was the profitability or at least your ability to -- it was setting the marginal capacity out there in the Atlantic Basin. It's not so much around natural gas, I don't think today.

我要說的是，直到大約 3 週前，第一季度與第四季度相比，有一個優勢是你可以看到他們支付了更高的燃料成本。我們還可以看到，當我們使用彭布羅克煉油廠作為代理時，我們已經通過了，對吧？換句話說，即使現在我們取消了所有的天然氣採購，但我們可以看到的是盈利能力，或者至少是你的能力——它設定了大西洋盆地的邊際產能。我認為今天不是天然氣。

I think what it is, is people are having to buy a very low sulfur crude oil to try to meet the low sulfur diesel spec and trying to avoid making a higher fuel oil spec. So in a simple term, some of it is being driven by IMO 2020 and the ability of some of these simple refiners can't deal with the crude oils that are available to them to restock the Atlantic Basin.

我認為它是什麼，人們不得不購買非常低硫的原油來嘗試滿足低硫柴油規格，並試圖避免製造更高的燃料油規格。因此，簡單來說，其中一些是由 IMO 2020 推動的，而這些簡單的煉油廠中的一些的能力無法處理他們可用的原油來補充大西洋盆地的庫存。

I see. So you actually don't think that the natural gas is driving the advantage at all?

我懂了。所以你實際上根本不認為天然氣在推動優勢嗎？

Well, what I'm trying -- this is just a 3-week phenomena, Paul. I'm not sure I would jump out there and try to make it an annualized thing. I'm just saying, I think most of the -- for the last quarter, a lot of is just being driven by the marginal economics of a simple refiner trying to buy -- having to buy low sulfur crudes to meet the Atlantic Basin diesel requirements.

好吧，我正在嘗試 - 這只是一個為期 3 週的現象，保羅。我不確定我會跳出那裡並嘗試使其成為年度化的事情。我只是說，我認為大部分——在上個季度，很多只是受到一個簡單的煉油廠試圖購買的邊際經濟的驅動——不得不購買低硫原油以滿足大西洋盆地柴油的需求要求。

All right, Eric, you're ready?

好吧，埃里克，你準備好了嗎？

Yes. So on DGD, what you said is correct, that backwardation was less severe in the third quarter than the second quarter. So the margin capture issue in the third quarter was more related to the feedstock slate that we ran. And as before, where we said we haven't seen an increase in feedstock prices, we did see and this is a little bit of a function of the margin indicator. We saw CBOT soybean prices drop $0.05 to $0.15 a pound below all of the waste oil feedstocks. And when you look at that through the third quarter, that was about 80% of the impact on the margin capture.

是的。所以在 DGD 上，你說的是對的，第三季度的逆價差沒有第二季度那麼嚴重。因此，第三季度的利潤捕獲問題與我們運行的原料板更相關。和以前一樣，我們說我們沒有看到原料價格上漲，我們確實看到了，這有點像利潤率指標的函數。我們看到 CBOT 大豆價格下跌 0.05 美元至每磅 0.15 美元，低於所有廢油原料。當你看到整個第三季度的情況時，這大約是對利潤率影響的 80%。

So it's really related to what we're seeing is veg oils pricing at or below waste oil feedstocks. And so the only thing I would say going forward to be aware of, we are increasing the amount of veg oil that we are running in the DGD complex, not because waste oils are not available, just because we see flat prices of veg oils coming down to a point where the LCFS advantages are not as strong versus what we see in waste oils. So we are incrementing veg oil into DGD because we see those prices are attractive.

因此，這與我們所看到的植物油定價等於或低於廢油原料有關。所以我要說的唯一一件事是要注意，我們正在增加我們在 DGD 綜合體中運行的植物油的數量，不是因為沒有廢油，只是因為我們看到植物油的平價即將到來直到 LCFS 的優勢不如我們在廢油中看到的那麼強。因此，我們將植物油添加到 DGD 中，因為我們認為這些價格很有吸引力。

Eric, do you have a percentage? How much is the vegetable oil you're going to run in the DGD 3?

埃里克，你有百分比嗎？你要在 DGD 3 中運行多少植物油？

Yes. We're not going to give out that level of detail. What I'll say is, up until the fourth quarter, we ran essentially 0 veg oil. So we're incrementing veg oil into the units because of this attractive price.

是的。我們不會給出那個級別的細節。我要說的是，直到第四季度，我們基本上使用了 0 種植物油。因此，由於這個有吸引力的價格，我們正在將植物油添加到單位中。

The next question is coming from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

Maybe just to come back to the cash returns to shareholders' question. We're getting a lot of interest on not just the 40% to 60% return, but how are you thinking about the split between those? And when should we think about potential to raise the dividend? Is it as simple as you get rid of the $4 billion that came with COVID? Or is there a step beyond that you want to see? And I think the question is growing more acute because as you look at the overall crack spread environment, right, it's one that says you're earning above a typical mid-cycle, so kind of an expectation, I think, here of greater than mid-cycle cash returns to shareholders is pushing on us. I'm just curious how you're thinking about it.

也許只是回到股東的現金回報問題。我們不僅對 40% 到 60% 的回報感興趣，而且您如何看待這兩者之間的分配？我們什麼時候應該考慮提高股息的潛力？擺脫 COVID 帶來的 40 億美元就這麼簡單嗎？或者有沒有超出你想看到的一步？而且我認為這個問題變得越來越尖銳，因為當你看到整個裂縫傳播環境時，對，它說你的收入高於典型的周期中期，所以我認為這是一種期望，這里大於給股東的中期現金回報正在推動我們。我只是好奇你是怎麼想的。

This is Jason. I think Joe answered it pretty well. I'll ran through our cash. We were up to $4 billion now, which is getting to where we'd like to be. The debt is getting to a good level at 24.5%. We still like to do a little bit more. We have 430 left just to have paid off the COVID and prefer to be at the lower end of that 20% to 30% range. But, yes, we're getting in a good shape, but I would say we're not declaring victory yet.

這是傑森。我認為喬回答得很好。我會花光我們的現金。我們現在達到了 40 億美元，這是我們想要達到的目標。債務達到了 24.5% 的良好水平。我們仍然喜歡做更多的事情。我們還剩下 430 個，只是為了還清 COVID，並希望處於 20% 到 30% 範圍的低端。但是，是的，我們的狀態很好，但我想說我們還沒有宣布勝利。

Roger, it's -- and Jason answered correctly. We don't know the economic climate is going to be like going into next year. It's probably premature to certainly to make a commitment right now on anything that we're going to use the balance sheet to defend. And I think everyone clearly could see that we had stated in the past that we were going to defend the dividend with the balance sheet, and we did that. And we will do that in the future.

羅傑，是——傑森答對了。我們不知道經濟氣候會像進入明年一樣。現在肯定現在就我們將使用資產負債表來捍衛的任何事情做出承諾可能還為時過早。我想每個人都清楚地看到，我們過去曾說過我們將用資產負債表來捍衛股息，我們做到了。我們將在未來這樣做。

And so we just want to be sure that we don't need jerkier care and then we've got a line of sight that we get a position where we want to be positioned. And then we have line of sight to the way things look going into next year before we would make that decision. But I do think we've got the flywheel of the buybacks, and we talked about maybe not moving up above. And by the way, it's 40% to 50%, okay? You took us up to 60%. I didn't notice that, okay? But it's 40% to 50%. And we'll see. We'll use that flywheel to drive the returns.

所以我們只是想確保我們不需要急於護理，然後我們就可以看到我們想要定位的位置。然後，在我們做出決定之前，我們對明年的情況有一定的了解。但我確實認為我們已經掌握了回購的飛輪，我們談到了可能不會向上移動。順便說一句，是 40% 到 50%，好嗎？你拿了我們高達 60%。我沒注意到，好嗎？但它是 40% 到 50%。我們拭目以待。我們將使用那個飛輪來驅動回報。

Got to try something here and there, just (inaudible) that's right. All right, well, let me try something else more on the kind of the operational side. You brought it up as there is obviously a risk of a slowing economic cycle out there. What level would you think about a typical recession impact in terms of fuel demand, recognizing gasoline is already well below what we would call kind of a normal environment. So let's maybe think about diesel since that's the real strong part.

必須在這里和那裡嘗試一些東西，只是（聽不清）這是對的。好吧，好吧，讓我在操作方面嘗試更多其他的東西。你提出這個問題是因為顯然存在經濟周期放緩的風險。你會認為燃料需求方面典型的衰退影響在什麼水平，認識到汽油已經遠低於我們所說的正常環境。所以讓我們考慮一下柴油，因為那是真正強大的部分。

When you think about industrial demand weakness, transportation-related weakness, right, whether it's just typical trucking, et cetera, how does that factor in? Like what kind of -- would you expect to see a couple of hundred thousand barrels go away? Is it a 10% sort of cut top to bottom? I'm just wondering how you think about the typical magnitude impact of a recession on fuel demand.

當您考慮工業需求疲軟，與運輸相關的疲軟時，對，是否只是典型的卡車運輸等等，這是如何影響的？比如什麼樣的——你會期望看到幾十萬桶消失嗎？是從上到下的 10% 的切割嗎？我只是想知道您如何看待經濟衰退對燃料需求的典型影響。

Roger, this is Gary. I guess as the guys have kind of gone back and looked at a recessionary period in the past, they see that product demand is kind of hit about 2x GDP. So whatever kind of GDP assumption you're going to have, you would take twice that on the impact of fuel demand. And as you mentioned, more of that is going to be diesel, less on gasoline. I think there are some unique situations as we head into next year.

羅傑，這是加里。我猜當這些人回過頭來回顧過去的衰退期時，他們看到產品需求受到了大約 2 倍 GDP 的衝擊。因此，無論您將採用哪種 GDP 假設，您都會對燃料需求的影響採取兩倍的假設。正如你所提到的，更多的是柴油，更少的是汽油。我認為在我們進入明年時會有一些獨特的情況。

One, jet demand hasn't fully recovered. And so you'll have a good increase in jet demand as we would anticipate. And then Chinese oil demand has been down 20%. At some point in time, they will come out of the pandemic, and you would expect to see Chinese demand recover. So the combination of both those things is that we would expect, even with the typical recessionary period, you may see year-over-year global oil demand growth.

一是噴氣機需求尚未完全恢復。因此，正如我們預期的那樣，您的噴氣式飛機需求將大幅增加。然後中國石油需求下降了20%。在某個時間點，它們將擺脫大流行，您會期望看到中國的需求復蘇。因此，我們預計，即使在典型的經濟衰退時期，這兩件事的結合，你也可能會看到全球石油需求同比增長。

The next question is coming from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。

First question is just around the high sulfur fuel oil market, and we're seeing these big heavy discounts showing up in the market. I love your perspective on -- what do you think is driving it? How much of that really is the later impacts of IMO versus other dynamics in the market? And are you changing your configuration in refining at all to run some of that high sulfur fuel oil into the cokers? Are you doing it more through WCS and sulfur?

第一個問題是圍繞高硫燃料油市場，我們看到市場上出現了這些大幅折扣。我喜歡你的觀點——你認為是什麼推動了它？與市場上其他動態相比，IMO 的後期影響到底有多少？您是否正在改變您的精煉配置以將一些高硫燃料油用於焦化器？你是通過 WCS 和硫磺來做更多的事情嗎？

So this is Gary. As Joe touched on a few of these things, but there's a number of factors that have been really driving the heavy sour discounts. First, the sanctions put on Russia have caused some rebalancing. A lot of the Indian and Chinese refiners are running euros. It's backed up Mars and heavy Canadian into the Gulf, which are driving those discounts wider. So we talked about the higher prices of natural gas around the world caused the operating expenses running heavy and medium sours to be higher. So that causes the discounts to be wider.

這就是加里。正如喬談到了其中一些事情，但有許多因素確實推動了沉重的酸折扣。首先，對俄羅斯的製裁引起了一些再平衡。許多印度和中國的煉油廠都在使用歐元。它支持火星和重型加拿大進入海灣，這正在推動這些折扣更大。所以我們談到了全球天然氣價格上漲導致重質和中質酸的運營費用更高。因此，這導致折扣範圍更廣。

There's a higher naphtha content in heavy Canadian crude. Naphtha has been discounted, so that drives the discounts wider. We've seen some unplanned maintenance in the U.S., which has also contributed. But overall, I think we continue to see weakness in high sulfur fuel oil, combined with higher refinery utilization, putting more product on the market. So some of that, what we expected in IMO 2020, we're finally starting to see in the market. The lack of Chinese demand is certainly also contributing to that.

加拿大重質原油中石腦油含量較高。石腦油已打折，因此折扣幅度更大。我們在美國看到了一些計劃外的維護，這也起到了作用。但總體而言，我認為我們繼續看到高硫燃料油疲軟，加上煉油廠利用率提高，將更多產品推向市場。因此，其中一些，我們在 IMO 2020 中的預期，我們終於開始在市場上看到。中國需求的缺乏當然也是造成這種情況的原因。

So for us, when we look at the market going forward, seasonal maintenance in Western Canada is coming to an end. You'll see higher diluent volumes as we head into winter. So all of that's putting more heavy Canadian on the market. We expect to see even more rebalancing occur as sanctions are ramped up in Russia. And so we expect this market to continue. We're certainly maximizing heavy Canadian in our system today and seeing a lot of opportunity to buy those high sulfur fuel in stocks, as you mentioned, that we're putting to our cokers.

所以對我們來說，當我們展望未來的市場時，加拿大西部的季節性維護即將結束。當我們進入冬季時，您會看到更高的稀釋劑體積。因此，所有這些都在市場上增加了加拿大人的重量。隨著俄羅斯加大製裁力度，我們預計會出現更多的再平衡。因此，我們預計這個市場將繼續存在。我們今天肯定在我們的系統中最大限度地使用重型加拿大燃料，並看到很多機會購買庫存中的那些高硫燃料，正如你所提到的，我們將這些燃料投入到我們的焦化器中。

Yes. That makes a lot of sense. And the other question is you guys have really built a wonderful business here through organically. Really haven't done much M&A in the better part of the last decade. And just your perspective on whether, as you look forward, are there bolt-on M&A opportunities as we are seeing some A&D in the downstream markets and in low-carbon markets? Or do you want to continue to build the business on an organic basis?

是的。這很有意義。另一個問題是，你們確實通過有機的方式在這裡建立了出色的業務。在過去十年的大部分時間裡，確實沒有進行太多併購。就您的看法，正如您所期待的那樣，隨著我們在下游市場和低碳市場看到一些 A&D，是否存在額外的併購機會？還是您想繼續有機地建立業務？

Neil, we're very comfortable with the approach we've taken to building the business. I mean, we went through the period, of course, where we grew the business. And frankly, bolted on a lot of stuff to the portfolio, which we now have largely operating to a level that we're comfortable with. And so we're very comfortable with the refining portfolio that we have in place today.

尼爾，我們對建立業務所採取的方法感到非常滿意。我的意思是，當然，我們經歷了業務增長的時期。坦率地說，在投資組合中加入了很多東西，我們現在已經在很大程度上達到了我們滿意的水平。因此，我們對我們今天擁有的精煉產品組合感到非常滿意。

We always look at opportunities that are out there, and we'll continue to do that. But the strategy that we've employed with really directing a significant part of the capital budget to the renewables businesses has made sense to us. We believe that they're very durable as is refining. But we're very comfortable with that approach, and we are comfortable with the way we've gone about doing it, which is certainly in the renewable diesel business from the ground up. So I think you should expect that we're not going to jump into the market for any kind of significant transaction. And we'll continue to do what we're doing.

我們一直在尋找存在的機會，我們將繼續這樣做。但是，我們採用的將大部分資本預算真正用於可再生能源業務的策略對我們來說是有意義的。我們相信它們和精煉一樣非常耐用。但我們對這種方法非常滿意，我們對我們所做的方式感到滿意，這肯定是從頭開始的可再生柴油業務。所以我認為你應該期望我們不會為了任何重大交易而進入市場。我們將繼續做我們正在做的事情。

The next question is coming from Jason Gabelman of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

I have 2. The first one kind of on near-term dynamics. Just thinking into 4Q, I was hoping you could discuss a couple of things. One, impacts to capture with the start-up of DGD 3, the ability to capture strong West Coast cracks in October, gasoline margins were over $100 a barrel. And then any impacts from the Mississippi River drought that you saw in your footprint that could be ongoing? And I have a follow-up.

我有 2。第一種是關於近期動態的。只是考慮到 4Q，我希望你能討論一些事情。一，DGD 3 啟動後捕獲的影響，即 10 月份捕獲強大的西海岸裂縫的能力，汽油利潤超過每桶 100 美元。然後你在你的足跡中看到的密西西比河乾旱的任何影響可能會持續嗎？我有一個後續行動。

You want to start with DGD 3? Okay. On DGD 3, margin capture, I think, will be challenged. One of the details of this business is when you first start up a brand-new unit, we have to start up on temporary pathways that are somewhat generic to renewable diesel units. You got to run like that for the first several months until you gather the data to get your actual carbon intensity numbers.

您想從 DGD 3 開始嗎？好的。我認為，在 DGD 3 上，利潤捕獲將受到挑戰。這項業務的一個細節是，當您第一次啟動一個全新的裝置時，我們必須在與可再生柴油裝置有些通用的臨時路徑上啟動。在你收集數據以獲得實際的碳強度數據之前，你必須在前幾個月那樣運行。

So margin capture on DGD 3 will be lower initially as we start up because you have to line out, get -- like I said, get the data to then submit your actual CI numbers. So I think that will be one of the main issues as we started DGD 3.

因此，當我們開始時，DGD 3 的保證金捕獲量最初會較低，因為您必須排隊，獲取 - 就像我說的那樣，獲取數據然後提交您的實際 CI 數字。所以我認為這將是我們開始 DGD 3 時的主要問題之一。

So we'll certainly get volume, we'll certainly get more overall income. But if you look from a -- but if you look at it through the margin indicator or on a dollar per gallon basis on temporary CIs for the first several months, it will be lower. But that will line out in the back half of '23 as we submit our data and get responses from all the different jurisdictions that you have to submit your CI numbers, too.

所以我們肯定會獲得銷量，我們肯定會獲得更多的整體收入。但是，如果您從 - 但如果您通過保證金指標或前幾個月的臨時 CI 以每加侖美元為基礎來查看它，它會更低。但這將在 23 年的後半部分列出，因為我們提交數據並獲得來自所有不同司法管轄區的回复，您也必須提交您的 CI 編號。

This is Lane. On California, we have been executing a turnaround at our Benicia refinery, some of which the turnaround was in the third quarter, and we'll be wrapping up here in the fourth quarter. So to the extent we still maximize gasoline, even to the extent we could, based on the operating posture we had for this turnaround, and we'll make the brand at full rate. So that's really -- so we'll just see how the fourth quarter wraps up with respect to the gasoline crack in the West Coast.

這是萊恩。在加利福尼亞，我們一直在 Benicia 煉油廠進行轉機，其中一些轉機是在第三季度，我們將在第四季度結束。因此，在我們仍然最大限度地利用汽油的情況下，即使在我們能夠做到的範圍內，基於我們為這次轉變所擁有的運營態勢，我們將全速打造品牌。所以那是真的 - 所以我們將看看第四季度如何結束西海岸的汽油裂解。

I guess, the final one around Memphis, the river levels have been impacting us at our Memphis refinery, both the ability to clear the refinery and supply the river terminals. As of this morning, both northbound and southbound traffic out on the river is wide open, expected to be there for the next couple of weeks. So we expect the situation to improve.

我想，在孟菲斯附近的最後一個，河流水位一直在影響我們在孟菲斯煉油廠，清理煉油廠和供應河流碼頭的能力。截至今天早上，河上的北行和南行交通都已完全開放，預計將在接下來的幾週內通行。因此，我們預計情況會有所改善。

Great. That color is all really helpful to think about 4Q. And then the other one just on low carbon opportunities within your port portfolio. In addition to the DGD venture, you also have an ethanol business, and it seems like with the carbon capture project that you're installing there and the Inflation Reduction Act, maybe ethanol to jet is a technology that makes sense, particularly given weaker ethanol margins. Is that something that you're looking at either to complement any SAF growth you would pursue within DGD or as an alternative investment instead of pursuing SAF within DGD?

偉大的。這種顏色對思考 4Q 非常有幫助。然後另一個只是關於您的港口投資組合中的低碳機會。除了 DGD 合資企業外，您還擁有乙醇業務，而且您正在那里安裝的碳捕獲項目和《通貨膨脹減少法案》似乎是一種有意義的技術，特別是考慮到較弱的乙醇邊距。您正在尋找的東西是補充您在 DGD 內追求的任何 SAF 增長，還是作為替代投資而不是在 DGD 內追求 SAF？

Yes. So that's definitely something on the radar for us. As you said, ethanol carbon, carbon captured ethanol will be eligible to get into SAF. And given our footprint and our Navigator project, it will be in -- SAF is a possibility with that ethanol product post-sequestration. So it's definitely sort of a somebody on the radar to look at sort of post 2025 when Navigator comes online.

是的。所以這對我們來說絕對是一件值得關注的事情。正如您所說，乙醇碳、碳捕獲乙醇將有資格進入 SAF。鑑於我們的足跡和我們的 Navigator 項目，它將在 - SAF 是一種可能的乙醇產品封存後。因此，當 Navigator 上線時，它絕對是一個關注 2025 年後的人。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we're showing time for a final question. The final question today is coming from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，我們正在展示最後一個問題的時間。今天的最後一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

I just had one question on the DGD guidance. If I heard it correctly, it was still $750 million for the year, which I believe implies that Q4 volumes to be lower quarter over quarter despite starting up a new plant in November. Could you help us understand that? Is that just being a little conservative around the start-up? Or is there a turnaround at the DGD 1 or DGD 2 that we should be keeping in mind?

我只有一個關於 DGD 指南的問題。如果我沒聽錯的話，今年仍然是 7.5 億美元，我認為這意味著儘管在 11 月啟動了新工廠，但第四季度的銷量將比上一季度下降。你能幫助我們理解嗎？這只是對初創公司有點保守嗎？還是我們應該記住 DGD 1 或 DGD 2 的轉機？

It's a little conservative. We are in start of the DGD 3. The plan is to ramp to full rates in November. So if you added that volume in, it will come in higher than the $750 million. But we're still lining the unit out and have yet to put feed into the echo finer. So we won't know that detail until mid-November or so. So from a guidance standpoint, we decided to keep the guidance at $750 million. It's proven that we see that rate.

這有點保守。我們正處於 DGD 3 的開始階段。該計劃是在 11 月全面升級。所以如果你把這個數量加進去，它會超過 7.5 億美元。但我們仍在為設備排線，尚未將饋送更精細地放入迴聲中。所以我們要到 11 月中旬左右才能知道這個細節。因此，從指導的角度來看，我們決定將指導保持在 7.5 億美元。事實證明，我們看到了這個比率。

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over for closing comments.

謝謝你。在這個時候，我想把地板翻過來以結束評論。

Great. Thank you, Dana. We appreciate everyone joining us today. Obviously, feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions. Thank you, everyone, and have a great week.

偉大的。謝謝你，達娜。我們感謝今天加入我們的每一個人。顯然，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝大家，祝您度過愉快的一周。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的活動到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，享受你剩下的一天。