瓦萊羅能源 (VLO) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Valero's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Valero 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興向您介紹您的主持人，投資者關係和財務副總裁 Homer Bhullar。謝謝你。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Joe Gorder, our Chairman and CEO; Lane Riggs, our President and COO; Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO; Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and several other members of Valero's senior management team.

大家早上好，歡迎參加 Valero Energy Corporation 的 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官喬·戈德； Lane Riggs，我們的總裁兼首席運營官； Jason Fraser，我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官；我們的執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Gary Simmons；以及 Valero 高級管理團隊的其他幾位成員。

If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您尚未收到收益發布並想要一份副本，您可以在我們的網站investorvalero.com 上找到一份。收益發布還附有表格，這些表格提供了有關我們業務部門的額外財務信息以及本次電話會議中提到的調整指標的對賬和披露。如果您在查看這些表格後有任何疑問，請在通話後隨時聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our filings with the SEC.

我現在想提請您注意新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，它表示新聞稿和本次電話會議中陳述公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測的陳述是前瞻性陳述，旨在涵蓋聯邦證券法的安全港條款。有許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期不同，包括我們在提交給 SEC 的文件中描述的那些。

Now I'll turn the call over to Joe for opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給喬做開場白。

Thanks, Homer, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，荷馬，大家早上好。

We saw continued improvement in our business during the fourth quarter with refining margins supported by strong product demand. In our system, we ended the year with gasoline demand at pre-pandemic levels and demand for diesel actually higher than pre-pandemic levels.

在強勁的產品需求支持下，我們的業務在第四季度持續改善。在我們的系統中，今年年底汽油需求處於大流行前的水平，而對柴油的需求實際上高於大流行前的水平。

We also saw a significant jet fuel recovery as domestic and international travel opened up, increasing from approximately 60% of pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of the year to approximately 80% at the end of the year. Product inventories were low as a result of the refining capacity rationalization that's taken place in the last 2 years and weather-related impacts from Winter Storm Uri and Hurricane Ida.

隨著國內和國際旅行的開放，我們還看到航空燃油顯著恢復，從年初的大流行前水平的約 60% 增加到年底的約 80%。由於過去 2 年發生的煉油能力合理化以及冬季風暴烏里和颶風艾達的天氣相關影響，產品庫存較低。

On the crude oil side, OPEC+ increased production throughout the year with improving demand, supplying the market primarily with sour crude oils, resulting in wider sour crude oil discounts to Brent crude oil.

在原油方面，歐佩克+在需求改善的情況下全年增產，主要向市場供應含硫原油，導致含硫原油較布倫特原油的貼水幅度更大。

As a result of all these dynamics, we saw a steady recovery in margins throughout the year, particularly for our complex refining system.

由於所有這些動態，我們看到全年利潤率穩步回升，特別是對於我們複雜的煉油系統。

In regards to our ethanol segment, ethanol prices were near record highs in the quarter, supported by strong demand and low inventories. Strong margins, coupled with solid operational performance across all of our segments, generated record quarterly operating income for our ethanol segment and record overall fourth quarter earnings for Valero.

關於我們的乙醇部門，在強勁的需求和低庫存的支持下，乙醇價格在本季度接近歷史高位。強勁的利潤率，加上我們所有部門的穩健運營業績，為我們的乙醇部門創造了創紀錄的季度營業收入，並為 Valero 創造了創紀錄的第四季度整體收益。

I am proud to say that 2021 was our best year ever for employee and process safety. In fact, we've set records for process safety for 3 consecutive years. These milestones are a testament to our long-standing commitment to safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. And despite the pandemic and weather-related challenges in 2021, our growth projects remained on track. We started up the Pembroke Cogeneration Unit in the third quarter of '21, which provides an efficient and reliable source of electricity and steam and enhances the refinery's competitiveness.

我很自豪地說，2021 年是我們有史以來員工和流程安全最好的一年。事實上，我們已經連續 3 年創造了過程安全記錄。這些里程碑證明了我們長期以來對安全、可靠和對環境負責的運營的承諾。儘管 2021 年面臨大流行和與天氣相關的挑戰，但我們的增長項目仍處於正軌。我們在 21 年第三季度啟動了彭布羅克熱電聯產裝置，它提供了高效可靠的電力和蒸汽來源，並提高了煉油廠的競爭力。

In addition, the Diamond Green Diesel expansion project, DGD 2, commenced operations in the fourth quarter on budget and ahead of schedule. The expansion has since demonstrated production capacity of 410 million gallons per year of renewable diesel as a result of process optimization, above the initial nameplate design capacity of 400 million gallons per year. This expansion brings DGD's total annual renewable diesel capacity to 700 million gallons.

此外，Diamond Green Diesel 擴建項目 DGD 2 於第四季度按預算提前開始運營。此後，由於工藝優化，此次擴建展示了每年 4.1 億加侖可再生柴油的生產能力，高於最初銘牌設計的每年 4 億加侖的設計能力。此次擴建使 DGD 的可再生柴油年總產能達到 7 億加侖。

Looking ahead, the DGD 3 project at our Port Arthur refinery is progressing ahead of schedule and is now expected to be operational in the first quarter of 2023. With the completion of this 470 million-gallon per year plant, DGD's total annual capacity is expected to be 1.2 billion gallons of renewable diesel and 50 million gallons of renewable naphtha.

展望未來，我們位於亞瑟港煉油廠的 DGD 3 項目正在提前推進，目前預計將於 2023 年第一季度投入運營。隨著這座年產 4.7 億加侖的工廠竣工，預計 DGD 的年總產能將達到將是 12 億加侖可再生柴油和 5000 萬加侖可再生石腦油。

BlackRock and Navigator's large-scale carbon sequestration project is also progressing on schedule and is still expected to begin start-up activities in late 2024. Valero is expected to be the anchor shipper with 8 ethanol plants connected to this system, which should provide a higher ethanol product margin.

貝萊德和 Navigator 的大型碳封存項目也在按計劃進行，預計仍將在 2024 年底開始啟動活動。預計 Valero 將成為該系統連接的 8 個乙醇工廠的主力托運人，這將提供更高的乙醇產品利潤。

The Port Arthur Coker project, which is expected to increase the refinery's utilization rate and improved turnaround efficiency, is expected to be completed in the first half of 2023.

預計將提高煉油廠利用率並提高周轉效率的亞瑟港焦化項目預計將於2023年上半年完成。

On the financial side, the guiding framework underpinning our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged. We remain disciplined in our allocation of capital, which prioritizes a strong balance sheet and an investment-grade credit rating.

在財務方面，支撐我們資本配置策略的指導框架保持不變。我們在資本分配方面保持自律，優先考慮強大的資產負債表和投資級信用評級。

In 2021, we took measures to reduce Valero's long-term debt by approximately $1.3 billion. We ended the year well capitalized with $4.1 billion of cash and $5.2 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash, and our net debt to capitalization was 33%.

2021 年，我們採取措施將 Valero 的長期債務減少了約 13 億美元。年底我們資本充足，擁有 41 億美元的現金和 52 億美元的可用流動性（不包括現金），我們的淨債務資本化率為 33%。

We continue to honor our commitment to stockholders, defending the dividend across margin cycles and delivering a payout ratio of 50% in 2021. And as recently announced, the Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.98 per share for the first quarter of 2022.

我們將繼續履行對股東的承諾，在整個利潤率週期中捍衛股息，並在 2021 年實現 50% 的派息率。正如最近宣布的那樣，董事會已批准 2022 年第一季度每股 0.98 美元的季度股息.

Looking ahead, we remain optimistic on refining margins. with low global light product inventories, strong product demand, global supply tightness due to significant refining capacity rationalization and wider sour crude oil differentials.

展望未來，我們對煉油利潤率保持樂觀。全球輕質產品庫存低、產品需求強勁、由於煉油能力顯著合理化和含硫原油差異擴大導致全球供應緊張。

We also remain optimistic on our low-carbon businesses, which we continue to expand with the growing global demand for lower carbon-intensity products. We've been leaders in the growth of these businesses and maintain a competitive advantage with our operational and technical expertise.

我們也對我們的低碳業務保持樂觀，隨著全球對低碳強度產品的需求不斷增長，我們將繼續擴大這些業務。我們一直是這些業務增長的領導者，並憑藉我們的運營和技術專長保持競爭優勢。

In closing, our team's simple strategy of pursuing excellence in operations, deploying capital with an uncompromising focus on returns and honoring our commitment to stockholders has driven our success and positions us well.

最後，我們團隊追求卓越運營、部署資本、毫不妥協地關注回報以及履行我們對股東的承諾的簡單戰略推動了我們的成功，並使我們處於有利地位。

So with that, Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

所以，荷馬，我會把電話交給你。

Thanks, Joe. For the fourth quarter of 2021, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1 billion or $2.46 per share compared to a net loss of $359 million or $0.88 per share for the fourth quarter of 2020. Fourth quarter 2021 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was also $1 billion or $2.47 per share compared to an adjusted net loss of $429 million or $1.06 per share for the fourth quarter of 2020.

謝謝，喬。 2021 年第四季度，歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨利潤為 10 億美元或每股 2.46 美元，而 2020 年第四季度淨虧損為 3.59 億美元或每股 0.88 美元。2021 年第四季度調整後歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨利潤為2020 年第四季度調整後淨虧損為 4.29 億美元或每股 1.06 美元，也為 10 億美元或每股 2.47 美元。

For 2021, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $930 million or $2.27 per share compared to a net loss of $1.4 billion or $3.50 per share in 2020. 2021 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1.2 billion or $2.81 per share compared to an adjusted net loss of $1.3 billion or $3.12 per share in 2020. For reconciliations to adjusted amounts, please refer to the financial tables that accompany the earnings release.

2021 年，歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨收入為 9.3 億美元或每股 2.27 美元，而 2020 年淨虧損為 14 億美元或每股 3.50 美元。2021 年調整後歸屬於 Valero 股東的淨收入為 12 億美元或每股 2.81 美元，而調整後的2020 年淨虧損 13 億美元或每股 3.12 美元。有關調整後金額的對賬，請參閱收益發布隨附的財務表格。

The refining segment reported $1.3 billion of operating income for the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to a $377 million operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2020. Fourth quarter 2021 adjusted operating income for the refining segment was $1.1 billion compared to an adjusted operating loss of $476 million for the fourth quarter of 2020.

煉油部門報告 2021 年第四季度的營業收入為 13 億美元，而 2020 年第四季度的營業虧損為 3.77 億美元。2021 年第四季度煉油部門的調整後營業收入為 11 億美元，而調整後的營業虧損為 476 美元2020 年第四季度 10 萬。

Refining throughput volumes in the fourth quarter of 2021 averaged 3 million barrels per day, which was 483,000 barrels per day higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. Throughput capacity utilization was 96% in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to 81% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Refining cash operating expenses of $4.86 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2021 were $0.46 per barrel higher than the fourth quarter of 2020, primarily due to higher natural gas prices.

2021年第四季度煉油吞吐量平均每天300萬桶，比2020年第四季度增加48.3萬桶/日。2021年第四季度產能利用率為96%，而第四季度為81% 2020 年第四季度煉油現金運營費用為每桶 4.86 美元，比 2020 年第四季度每桶高 0.46 美元，這主要是由於天然氣價格上漲。

The renewable diesel segment operating income was $150 million for the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to $127 million for the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted renewable diesel operating income was $152 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 1.6 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2021, which was 974,000 gallons per day higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. The higher operating income and sales volumes were primarily attributed to the start-up of Diamond Green Diesel expansion project, DGD 2, in the fourth quarter.

2021 年第四季度可再生柴油部門營業收入為 1.5 億美元，而 2020 年第四季度為 1.27 億美元。2021 年第四季度調整後的可再生柴油營業收入為 1.52 億美元。可再生柴油銷量平均為 160 萬加侖/ 2021 年第四季度的日產量比 2020 年第四季度增加了 974,000 加侖。營業收入和銷量的增長主要歸功於 Diamond Green Diesel 擴建項目 DGD 2 在第四季度的啟動25美分硬幣。

The ethanol segment reported record operating income of $474 million for the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to $15 million for the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter of 2021 was $475 million compared to $17 million for the fourth quarter of 2020. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.4 million gallons per day in the fourth quarter of 2021, which was 278,000 gallons per day higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. And as Joe mentioned earlier, the higher operating income was primarily attributed to higher ethanol prices, which were supported by strong demand and low inventories.

乙醇部門報告稱，2021 年第四季度的營業收入為創紀錄的 4.74 億美元，而 2020 年第四季度為 1500 萬美元。2021 年第四季度調整後的營業收入為 4.75 億美元，而 2020 年第四季度為 1700 萬美元。 2021 年第四季度的乙醇產量平均為每天 440 萬加侖，比 2020 年第四季度每天增加 278,000 加侖。正如喬之前提到的，營業收入的增加主要歸因於乙醇價格上漲，這是受強勁需求和低庫存支撐。

For the fourth quarter of 2021, G&A expenses were $286 million and net interest expense was $152 million. G&A expenses of $865 million in 2021 were largely in line with our guidance.

2021 年第四季度，G&A 費用為 2.86 億美元，淨利息費用為 1.52 億美元。 2021 年 8.65 億美元的 G&A 費用基本符合我們的指導。

Depreciation and amortization expense was $598 million and income tax expense was $169 million for the fourth quarter of 2021.

2021 年第四季度的折舊和攤銷費用為 5.98 億美元，所得稅費用為 1.69 億美元。

The annual effective tax rate was 17% for 2021, which reflects the benefit from the portion of DGD's net income that is not taxable to us.

2021 年的年度有效稅率為 17%，這反映了 DGD 不向我們徵稅的那部分淨收入中的收益。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and $5.9 billion for the full year. Excluding the favorable impact from the change in working capital of $595 million in the fourth quarter and $2.2 billion in 2021 and the other joint venture members' 50% share of Diamond Green Diesel's net cash provided by operating activities, excluding changes in DGD's working capital, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1.8 billion for the fourth quarter and $3.3 billion for the full year.

2021 年第四季度經營活動提供的淨現金為 25 億美元，全年為 59 億美元。剔除第四季度 5.95 億美元和 2021 年 22 億美元的營運資金變動帶來的有利影響，以及其他合資成員佔 Diamond Green Diesel 經營活動提供的淨現金 50% 的份額，不包括 DGD 營運資金的變動，第四季度經營活動提供的調整後淨現金為 18 億美元，全年為 33 億美元。

With regard to investing activities, we made $752 million of total capital investments in the fourth quarter of 2021, of which $353 million was for sustaining the business, including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance, and $399 million was for growing the business.

在投資活動方面，我們在 2021 年第四季度進行了 7.52 億美元的總資本投資，其中 3.53 億美元用於維持業務，包括周轉、催化劑和合規成本，3.99 億美元用於發展業務。

Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture members' 50% share of Diamond Green Diesel and those related to other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $545 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and $1.8 billion for the year.

不計其他合資成員持有 Diamond Green Diesel 50% 股份的資本投資以及與其他可變利益實體相關的資本投資，2021 年第四季度歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資為 5.45 億美元，全年為 18 億美元。

Moving to financing activities. We returned $401 million to our stockholders in the fourth quarter of 2021 through our dividend and $1.6 billion through dividends in the year, resulting in a 2021 payout ratio of 50% of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities for the year.

轉向融資活動。我們在 2021 年第四季度通過股息向股東返還了 4.01 億美元，通過當年的股息返還了 16 億美元，導致 2021 年的派息率為當年經營活動提供的調整後淨現金的 50%。

And our Board of Directors recently approved a regular quarterly dividend of $0.98 per share, demonstrating our sound financial position and commitment to return cash to our investors.

我們的董事會最近批准了每股 0.98 美元的定期季度股息，顯示了我們穩健的財務狀況和向投資者返還現金的承諾。

With respect to our balance sheet at year-end, total debt and finance lease obligations were $13.9 billion and cash and cash equivalents were $4.1 billion. The debt-to-capitalization ratio net of cash and cash equivalents was 33%.

關於我們年底的資產負債表，總債務和融資租賃義務為 139 億美元，現金和現金等價物為 41 億美元。扣除現金及現金等價物後的債務資本化比率為 33%。

In the fourth quarter, we completed a series of debt reduction and refinancing transactions that together reduced Valero's long-term debt by $693 million. These debt reduction and refinancing transactions, combined with the redemption of $575 million floating rate senior notes due 2023 in the third quarter, collectively reduced Valero's long-term debt by $1.3 billion.

在第四季度，我們完成了一系列減債和再融資交易，使 Valero 的長期債務減少了 6.93 億美元。這些減債和再融資交易，加上贖回 2023 年第三季度到期的 5.75 億美元浮動利率優先票據，共同使 Valero 的長期債務減少了 13 億美元。

At the end of the year, we had $5.2 billion of available liquidity, excluding cash.

到年底，我們有 52 億美元的可用流動資金，不包括現金。

Turning to guidance. We expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2022 to be approximately $2 billion, which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts and joint venture investments. About 60% of our capital investments is allocated to sustaining the business and 40% to growth. Approximately 50% of our growth capital in 2022 is allocated to expanding our low-carbon businesses.

轉向指導。我們預計 2022 年歸屬於 Valero 的資本投資約為 20 億美元，其中包括轉型、催化劑和合資企業投資的支出。我們大約 60% 的資本投資用於維持業務，40% 用於增長。到 2022 年，我們大約 50% 的增長資本用於擴展我們的低碳業務。

For modeling our first quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges: Gulf Coast at 1.66 million to 1.71 million barrels per day; Mid-Continent at 395,000 to 415,000 barrels per day; West Coast at 185,000 to 205,000 barrels per day; and North Atlantic at 430,000 to 450,000 barrels per day. We expect refining cash operating expenses in the first quarter to be approximately $4.80 per barrel.

為了模擬我們第一季度的運營，我們預計煉油吞吐量將在以下範圍內：墨西哥灣沿岸每天 166 萬至 171 萬桶；中部大陸，每天 395,000 至 415,000 桶；西海岸，每天 185,000 至 205,000 桶；和北大西洋，每天 430,000 至 450,000 桶。我們預計第一季度煉油現金運營費用約為每桶 4.80 美元。

With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we expect sales volumes to be approximately 700 million gallons in 2022. Operating expenses in 2022 should be $0.45 per gallon, which includes $0.15 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

對於可再生柴油領域，我們預計 2022 年的銷量約為 7 億加侖。2022 年的運營費用應為每加侖 0.45 美元，其中包括折舊和攤銷等非現金成本每加侖 0.15 美元。

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4.2 million gallons per day in the first quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.44 per gallon, which includes $0.05 per gallon for noncash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

我們的乙醇部門預計將在第一季度每天生產 420 萬加侖。運營費用平均應為每加侖 0.44 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.05 美元的非現金成本，例如折舊和攤銷。

For the first quarter, net interest expense should be about $150 million and total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $600 million.

第一季度，淨利息支出約為 1.5 億美元，折舊和攤銷總額約為 6 億美元。

For 2022, we expect G&A expenses, excluding corporate depreciation, to be approximately $870 million.

到 2022 年，我們預計 G&A 費用（不包括公司折舊）約為 8.7 億美元。

That concludes our opening remarks. (Operator Instructions)

我們的開場白到此結束。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Theresa Chen of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊的Theresa Chen。

Joe, I'd like to revisit your comments earlier about the refining margins outlook through 2022. I mean clearly, we seem to have a pretty positive setup with lean global inventories and significant amount of refining rationalization that's happened since and even slightly before the pandemic began while demand continues to recover and remain resilient.

喬，我想重新審視您早些時候關於 2022 年煉油利潤率前景的評論。我的意思是，我們似乎有一個非常積極的設置，全球庫存減少，並且自大流行以來甚至在大流行之前發生了大量的煉油合理化開始時需求繼續恢復並保持彈性。

So looking through the rest of this year, can you just give us a sense of puts and takes on the variables that could detract from this thesis, either risk to the downside or upside from here?

因此，縱觀今年餘下的時間，您能否讓我們了解一下可能影響本論文的變量，無論是下行風險還是上行風險？

Sure, Theresa. Thanks a lot. Why don't we let Gary take a crack at this.

當然，特蕾莎。非常感謝。我們為什麼不讓加里解決這個問題。

Sure, Theresa. If you look -- I mean, I'll just kind of go through some of the things we're seeing in our system. We saw good recovery last year, both gasoline and diesel and even good recovery in jet fuel demand. And we expect that rebound to continue through 2022.

當然，特蕾莎。如果你看 - 我的意思是，我會簡單介紹一下我們在系統中看到的一些東西。去年我們看到了良好的複蘇，包括汽油和柴油，甚至航空燃料需求也出現了良好的複蘇。我們預計這種反彈將持續到 2022 年。

We started the year, gasoline demand is off a little bit from what we would expect. Some of that is just seasonality but even if you go back to 2019 or we were in 2019 at this time of the year, we're off about 7% with the spike in COVID cases and also some weather impacting gasoline demand as well.

今年年初，汽油需求與我們的預期略有不同。其中一些只是季節性因素，但即使你回到 2019 年，或者我們在一年中的這個時候處於 2019 年，我們也會因為 COVID 病例激增以及一些天氣影響汽油需求而下降約 7%。

But I would tell you already, our 7-day average is only off about 3% of where it was in 2019. So it looks like this latest surge in COVID cases were already coming out of it.

但我已經告訴過你，我們的 7 天平均值僅比 2019 年低 3% 左右。因此，最近的 COVID 病例激增似乎已經出現。

And so with where gasoline inventories are, very bullish gasoline moving forward. As you already pointed out, we expect to see gasoline demand back to 2019 levels, which was close to peak gasoline demand, and we'll be trying to feed that demand with significantly less refining capacity. So we expect the gasoline markets to be very tight.

因此，汽油庫存在哪裡，非常看好汽油向前發展。正如您已經指出的那樣，我們預計汽油需求將回到 2019 年的水平，接近汽油需求的峰值，我們將努力以顯著減少的煉油能力來滿足這一需求。因此，我們預計汽油市場將非常緊張。

When you move to diesel, of course, diesel inventories are not only low in the United States, but they're low globally. Diesel demand actually in our system has been about 7% of where it was in 2019. So some of those factors, in particular, weather, that are negatively impacting gasoline are actually are having a positive impact on diesel demand. So we see very strong diesel demand. And we actually don't see a clear path in the near future to be able to restock those investors with turnaround activity that's occurring in the industry, along with the rationalization that's occurred.

當然，當你轉向柴油時，柴油庫存不僅在美國很低，而且在全球範圍內也很低。實際上，我們系統中的柴油需求約為 2019 年的 7%。因此，對汽油產生負面影響的其中一些因素，特別是天氣，實際上正在對柴油需求產生積極影響。因此，我們看到柴油需求非常強勁。實際上，我們實際上在不久的將來看不到一條清晰的道路，可以通過行業中發生的周轉活動以及已經發生的合理化來補充這些投資者的股票。

So for us, both gasoline and diesel look very constructive moving throughout the year. Jet demand will be the unknown. Our expectation is that as we get through this wave of COVID, much like we saw last year, domestic air travel will pick back up fairly rapidly, but it will be a longer period of time before international travel picks back up.

所以對我們來說，汽油和柴油在全年的走勢中看起來都非常有建設性。噴氣機需求將是未知數。我們的預期是，隨著我們度過這一波 COVID，就像我們去年看到的那樣，國內航空旅行將很快回升，但國際旅行回升還需要更長的時間。

So although we expect to be close back to 2019 levels by the end of the year, probably not fully recovered.

因此，儘管我們預計到年底將接近 2019 年的水平，但可能還沒有完全恢復。

I think to me, when you talk about the wild card, really the wildcard for this year is what happens in the crude market. Obviously, a lot of tightness in the crude markets today, certainly having an impact on differentials.

我認為，當你談論外卡時，今年的外卡實際上是原油市場發生的情況。顯然，今天原油市場出現了很多吃緊，肯定會對價差產生影響。

And so for us, it's kind of when do we see OPEC begin to ramp up production. As global oil demand picks up, we would expect OPEC to increase production. A lot of that will be medium and heavy sour barrels, which would be constructive to wider differentials moving throughout the year as well.

所以對我們來說，這是我們看到歐佩克開始增加產量的時候。隨著全球石油需求回升，我們預計歐佩克將增加產量。其中很多將是中型和重型酸桶，這也將對全年更廣泛的差價產生建設性影響。

That's great color. So I got to ask the capital allocation question. You have been so consistent on your messaging as well as execution around this. And with the progress that you've made on reducing debt, generating free cash flow for the past couple of quarters and generally positive momentum on the near-term refining outlook. Are we at an inflection point where we may soon see a step-up in cash return to shareholders?

這顏色真好。所以我要問資本配置的問題。您在消息傳遞和執行方面一直如此一致。隨著您在減少債務、過去幾個季度產生自由現金流以及近期煉油前景的總體積極勢頭方面取得的進展。我們是否正處於一個拐點，我們可能很快會看到股東的現金回報增加？

Jason?

傑森？

Yes, this is Jason. I'll take that. And you're right, we've made good progress on our goals. We have said when we started coming out of this situation, we'll rebuild our cash to target keeping more on hand, around $3 billion, we've done that. We had $4.1 billion at the end of the year.

是的，這是傑森。我會接受的。你是對的，我們在目標上取得了良好的進展。我們已經說過，當我們開始擺脫這種情況時，我們將重建我們的現金以保持更多的手頭，大約 30 億美元，我們已經做到了。到年底，我們有 41 億美元。

We also said we're really going to start working on delevering. And in the third and fourth quarters of last year, we did two delevering transactions, paid off about $1.3 billion net, brought our net debt to cap down to 33% at the end of the year, and our goal is to ultimately get back to our 20% to 30% long-term target we've had. And the pace is going to depend on margins and cash generation.

我們還說我們真的要開始去槓桿化了。去年第三和第四季度，我們進行了兩次去槓桿交易，還清了約 13 億美元的淨債務，將我們的淨債務限制在年底時降至 33%，我們的目標是最終回到我們制定的 20% 到 30% 的長期目標。速度將取決於利潤率和現金產生。

But getting on to buybacks and the return of cash to shareholders. As you said, things are looking better now. For 2021, the payout was 50% with just the dividend and some minimal buybacks related to the employee plans. But with the margin increase in the fourth quarter and they're continuing to be strong during the first quarter so far, if this pattern of recovery does continue, we do anticipate we'll be doing buybacks this year to meet our target.

但是繼續進行回購併將現金返還給股東。正如你所說，現在情況看起來好多了。 2021 年的支出為 50%，僅包括股息和與員工計劃相關的一些最低限度的回購。但隨著第四季度的利潤率增加，並且到目前為止它們在第一季度繼續保持強勁勢頭，如果這種複蘇模式確實繼續下去，我們確實預計今年我們將進行回購以實現我們的目標。

And we feel we can both continue to our pattern, our goal of having aggressive debt paydown this year and also meet our shareholder return commitment via buybacks. We definitely don't think they're mutually exclusive. And it's all driven by our framework and targets we've had in place for several years.

我們覺得我們既可以繼續我們的模式，我們今年的目標是積極償還債務，也可以通過回購來滿足我們的股東回報承諾。我們絕對不認為它們是相互排斥的。這一切都是由我們多年來製定的框架和目標驅動的。

Our next question is coming from Manav Gupta of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Manav Gupta。

First question was on DGD. What we are seeing out there is a number of projects getting delayed, long lead equipment not getting through. Everybody is kind of lagging. You are an exception, your project keeps moving forward. And I know, Joe, you always tell me, you have the best people. But besides best people, what else are you doing right, which is allowing you to move the time line forward versus everybody else going backwards?

第一個問題是關於 DGD。我們看到的是，許多項目被推遲，長期領先的設備沒有通過。每個人都有點落後。你是個例外，你的項目一直在向前推進。我知道，喬，你總是告訴我，你有最好的人。但除了最優秀的人，你還有什麼做得對的，這讓你可以將時間線向前推進，而其他人卻在倒退？

Wow. I don't -- should we even say anything?

哇。我不——我們應該說什麼嗎？

I'm still going to say we have the best people, but -- Hi, Manav, this is Lane.

我仍然要說我們擁有最優秀的人才，但是--嗨，Manav，我是 Lane。

We also completed Diamond Green 2, right? So we have a really good understanding of what the project execution looks like. We have the same business partners that are largely executing Diamond Green 3. And we've been able to really improve the schedule, and it's really just -- we've been -- we've built 2 of these, we're in our third, and it's just a really good team all the way around. Not just our people, we have good business partners as well. And we also -- permitting. We permit these even better. So it's just across the board.

我們也完成了 Diamond Green 2，對吧？所以我們對項目執行的樣子有很好的理解。我們有相同的業務合作夥伴，主要執行 Diamond Green 3。而且我們已經能夠真正改善時間表，而且真的只是 - 我們一直 - 我們已經建造了其中 2 個，我們在我們的第三個，從始至終都是一支非常優秀的球隊。不僅是我們的員工，我們還有良好的商業夥伴。我們也 - 允許。我們允許這些甚至更好。所以它只是全面的。

Yes. And it's there's -- Lane, there's been a lot of lessons learned as we went through one. And so, I mean...

是的。還有—— Lane，我們在經歷一個教訓時吸取了很多教訓。所以，我的意思是...

Right, that's what I mean. We've built 1.. We built -- we just finished 2. And we've learned all through all those things, we are definitely -- we have the advantage of being an early mover in this space.

對，就是這個意思。我們已經建立了 1.. 我們建立了——我們剛剛完成了 2。我們已經從所有這些東西中學到了一切，我們絕對是——我們具有成為這個領域的先行者的優勢。

Perfect, guys. My second follow-up very quickly here is it looks like your partner is moving ahead with kind of an acquisition, which would give you guys more used cooking oil, more animal fats. At this stage, I think there was a plan at some point to get in more animal fats from international to feed DGD 3. How is the feedstock situation looking for DGD 3? Are you very close to what you would need when DGD 3 is up and running in terms of feedstock now?

完美，伙計們。我的第二個跟進非常快，看起來你的合作夥伴正在推進某種收購，這將為你們提供更多用過的食用油，更多的動物脂肪。在這個階段，我認為有一個計劃從國際進口更多的動物脂肪來餵養 DGD 3。DGD 3 的原料情況如何？當 DGD 3 啟動並運行時，就原料而言，您是否非常接近您的需求？

Yes, Manav, this is Martin. Obviously, our plan is to continue to feed DGD 1, 2 and 3 with waste feedstock. We feel good about that. The market feedstock market's tightened up relative to soybean oil. And we knew that was coming with the startup of DGD 2. We changed trade flows. We've moved everything around, and that's had an impact on the market. And frankly, when we contemplated DGD 2 and 3, we expect feedstock to appreciate relative to soybean oil and we expected carbon pricing to appreciate.

是的，馬納夫，這是馬丁。顯然，我們的計劃是繼續向 DGD 1、2 和 3 提供廢原料。我們對此感覺良好。市場原料市場相對豆油收緊。我們知道隨著 DGD 2 的啟動，我們改變了貿易流向。我們改變了一切，這對市場產生了影響。坦率地說，當我們考慮 DGD 2 和 3 時，我們預計原料相對於豆油會升值，我們預計碳定價會升值。

So we're kind of where we expected to be here. And yes, the feedstock situation, it's a moving target, but it's all tied to global GDP growth. And just to sum it up, yes, we expect to be able to feed it.

所以我們有點像我們期望的那樣。是的，原料情況，這是一個不斷變化的目標，但它都與全球 GDP 增長息息相關。總結一下，是的，我們希望能夠養活它。

Our next question is coming from Phil Gresh of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Gresh。

The Gulf Coast refining margins in the fourth quarter were the best since 2015, if I have that right. And they're even better than 4Q '19 when we were talking about IMO 2020 and feedstock advantages and things like that. So I was just curious if there's anything more to elaborate on about the strength of the Gulf Coast margins that we saw in the quarter and how you think about the sustainability of that?

如果我認為正確的話，第四季度墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油利潤率是自 2015 年以來最好的。當我們談論 IMO 2020 和原料優勢等時，它們甚至比 19 年第四季度還要好。因此，我只是好奇是否有更多關於我們在本季度看到的墨西哥灣沿岸利潤率的實力以及您如何看待其可持續性的詳細說明？

Yes. So I think a lot of -- typically in the Gulf Coast, when we see stronger capture rates, it's tied to feedstock optimization. And so certainly, we've been doing a lot around some of those fuel oil blend stocks and running more of those in our system, which has helped support higher capture rates.

是的。所以我認為很多 - 通常在墨西哥灣沿岸，當我們看到更高的捕獲率時，它與原料優化有關。因此，可以肯定的是，我們一直在圍繞其中一些混合燃料油庫存做很多工作，並在我們的系統中運行更多庫存，這有助於支持更高的捕獲率。

Got it. Okay. And then second question, just a follow-up on some of the commentary there on renewable diesel. The gross margins there, down sequentially. It sounds like you expected some of that, but the capture rate of the indicator there was, I think, a bit lower than maybe some had expected.

知道了。好的。然後是第二個問題，只是對可再生柴油的一些評論的跟進。那裡的毛利率，依次下降。聽起來您已經預料到了其中的一些，但我認為該指標的捕獲率可能比某些人預期的要低一些。

Were there any transitory factors there, in your opinion, in the quarter as you started up Phase 2 and whether it's with feedstock or other factors? Or is this how you think about kind of a run rate moving forward?

在您看來，在您啟動第 2 階段的那個季度，是否存在任何暫時性因素，無論是原料還是其他因素？或者這就是你對前進速度的看法？

Sure, Phil. This is Martin. So margin capture in 2021 was all about the feedstock price. In first half of '21, feedstock prices were low relative to soybean oil, which resulted in some really high margin capture. In the fourth quarter, the prices were high relative to soybean oil and that gave us a lower margin capture at 75%.

當然，菲爾。這是馬丁。因此，2021 年的利潤獲取完全取決於原料價格。在 21 年上半年，原料價格相對於豆油較低，這導致了一些非常高的利潤率。在第四季度，價格相對於豆油較高，這使我們的利潤率較低，為 75%。

With the start-up of DGD 2, we're going to have tighter prices for a while. We expect feedstock to be around soybean oil going forward for the immediate future. And then we'll see how that plays out in the next few months after that. But we expect it to be right around soybean oil, which would incur closer to this 100% type margin capture. And that's what we experienced throughout 2019. If you go back and look at those numbers, we averaged right around 100% margin capture. So that's kind of how we expect things to shake out in the next few months.

隨著 DGD 2 的啟動，我們將在一段時間內收緊價格。我們預計在不久的將來原料將圍繞豆油。然後我們將看到在接下來的幾個月裡它會如何發揮作用。但我們預計它會圍繞豆油，這將導致更接近這種 100% 的類型利潤捕獲。這就是我們在整個 2019 年所經歷的。如果你回頭看看這些數字，我們的平均利潤率約為 100%。所以這就是我們預計未來幾個月事情會發生的變化。

Our next question is coming from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

I want to come back, if possible, to the crude tightness comments, just what you're seeing in terms of differentials, what you'd expect. And then are we highly dependent here on OPEC putting more oil in the market? Or is there some other factor at work?

如果可能的話，我想回到粗略的緊縮評論，就是你在差異方面看到的，你所期望的。那麼我們是否高度依賴歐佩克向市場投放更多石油？還是有其他因素在起作用？

And one of the reasons I ask is some of the closures that we saw on the refining side tended to be a light sweet unit. So if physical demand is down on that side, is that also accounting for some of the tightness of the differentials?

我問的一個原因是我們在精煉方面看到的一些關閉往往是一個輕甜的單位。那麼，如果實物需求在那一側下降，這是否也說明了一些差異的緊張？

Yes, Roger, it's Gary. I think there's a number of factors that contributed to the tightness, not simply OPEC. We saw the winter weather have an impact on heavy Canadian production from Western Canada. We had disruptions from supply in Ecuador. The pipeline issue between Iraq and Turkey that took barrels off the market. So a number of factors.

是的，羅傑，是加里。我認為有許多因素導致了供應緊張，而不僅僅是歐佩克。我們看到冬季天氣對來自加拿大西部的大量加拿大生產產生了影響。我們在厄瓜多爾的供應中斷。伊拉克和土耳其之間的管道問題使石油從市場上撤出。所以有很多因素。

We think going forward, again, not only getting the OPEC production ramping up. We expect to not only see the Western Canadian production come back, we actually think it will grow with some of the logistics projects coming back on. And so most of that production that was off the market is coming back.

我們認為，展望未來，不僅要提高歐佩克的產量。我們預計不僅會看到加拿大西部的生產恢復，我們實際上認為隨著一些物流項目的恢復，它會增長。因此，大部分退出市場的產品正在回歸。

In addition to that production coming on the market, the OPEC production growing will take some of the pressure off the crude markets and certainly pressure off the crude differentials.

除了即將上市的產量外，歐佩克產量的增長將減輕原油市場的一些壓力，當然也減輕原油差價的壓力。

And then my unrelated follow-up question is coming to you, Jason. Like the insight on the possibility of getting back to more normal cash returns model in '22. I was curious, though, given the significant improvement in working capital in '21, are we at risk of seeing some of that reverse in '22? Or when you think about the outlook, do you assume a neutral working capital event and maybe we should assume something going the other way?

然後我的不相關的後續問題向你提出，傑森。就像對在 22 年恢復到更正常的現金回報模型的可能性的洞察力一樣。不過，我很好奇，鑑於 21 年營運資金的顯著改善，我們是否有可能在 22 年看到一些逆轉？或者當你考慮前景時，你是否假設一個中性的營運資金事件，也許我們應該假設一些事情會朝著相反的方向發展？

Yes. Well, our movements in working capital generally follow flat price. So when we're forecasting, we just assume neutral cash on working capital as our basis.

是的。好吧，我們的營運資金變動通常遵循固定價格。因此，當我們進行預測時，我們只是假設營運資金的中性現金作為我們的基礎。

So just a quick reminder, if prices go up, positive, if prices go down, it's going to eat working capital?

所以只是快速提醒一下，如果價格上漲，積極，如果價格下跌，它會吃掉營運資金嗎？

Right. That's right.

正確的。這是正確的。

Our next question is coming from Prashant Rao of Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Prashant Rao。

I wanted to circle back on the capital allocation piece a little bit. You've done a great job reducing debt. It looks like you'll be able to take another chunk out this year. You've got high balance sheet cash. And it sounds like you're very positive on buybacks.

我想繞回資本分配部分。你在減少債務方面做得很好。看起來你今年可以再拿出一大塊。你的資產負債表現金很高。聽起來你對回購非常積極。

I just sort of wanted to ask about the dividend. I know if it might be a bit premature at this point, but given that we're looking at what could be an above mid-cycle year in earnings. You've gotten debt controlled and the yield is starting to come in. Currently, just annualized a little bit under 5% and could be tighter than that if the share price continues to work. Is taking a hard look at the dividend something that -- a potential increase something that you might think of this year? Or is it too soon to start talking about that?

我只是想問一下股息。我知道此時是否為時過早，但鑑於我們正在研究可能高於週期中期的年度收益。你已經控制了債務，收益率開始出現。目前，年化率僅略低於 5%，如果股價繼續發揮作用，可能會比這更緊。仔細研究股息是不是你今年可能會想到的潛在增長？還是現在開始談論這個還為時過早？

Yes. This is Jason. It's probably a little soon given what we just came through. But we always look at it. Our commitment is to have a sustainable dividend with a yield at the high end of our peer group, and that's where it is now. Where the peers are and the market is, we think it's in a good place.

是的。這是傑森。考慮到我們剛剛經歷的情況，這可能有點快。但我們總是看著它。我們的承諾是在我們的同行群體中以高端的收益率獲得可持續的股息，這就是現在的情況。同行和市場在哪裡，我們認為它在一個好地方。

Okay. Perfect. And then just...

好的。完美的。然後就...

Prashant, remember, at this time last year, there was a big question on sustainability of the dividend, right? A lot can change in a short period. Now you never questioned it. You always had faith. But anyway, interesting how things come around.

Prashant，請記住，去年這個時候，股息的可持續性存在一個大問題，對吧？很多東西可以在短時間內改變。現在你從來沒有質疑過它。你一直有信心。但無論如何，有趣的是事情是如何發生的。

It's true. It's like a different world altogether, right, Joe?

這是真的。這就像一個完全不同的世界，對吧，喬？

Yes, it is.

是的。

Just another quick question. Ethanol, obviously, historically, high performance here. This is the best quarter we've seen since you've been reporting quarterly results out of ethanol.

只是另一個快速的問題。顯然，從歷史上看，乙醇在這裡表現出色。這是自您報告乙醇季度業績以來我們看到的最好的季度。

Just wondering a little bit about strength of carryover. I think when we discussed this a couple of months back, there were some cautious, cautious read across as to what happens in 2022 given how volatile the ethanol market is and all the puts and takes. I was just wondering if big picture, how to think about how -- where we level set where we are, entering 2022 to think about what the cadence might be there? Some of that strength carrying over, but also there's a lot going on in terms of policy, gasoline demand, a whole bunch of factors there.

只是想知道一點關於結轉的強度。我認為，當我們幾個月前討論這個問題時，考慮到乙醇市場的波動性以及所有的看跌期權，對於 2022 年會發生什麼，有一些謹慎的解讀。我只是想知道如果大局，如何考慮如何 - 我們在哪里水平設置我們現在的位置，進入 2022 年以考慮可能的節奏？其中一些實力得以延續，但在政策、汽油需求等一系列因素方面也發生了很多變化。

So just wondered if could get some color and maybe a little bit of clarity as to how we should be thinking about that as we look into '22.

所以只是想知道是否可以得到一些顏色，也許有點清晰，我們應該如何考慮在 22 年。

Sure, Prashant, this is Martin. Well, obviously, fourth quarter was a great quarter for ethanol. When you look at it, what really set that up in the third quarter, the margin started off fairly weak. And we were also at the end of crop year corn, so that this wasn't -- and corn available in the industry is pretty very low stocks.

當然，Prashant，這是馬丁。那麼，顯然，第四季度是乙醇的一個很好的季度。當你看到它時，真正在第三季度建立起來的，利潤率開始相當弱。而且我們也處於作物年度結束時的玉米，所以這不是 - 並且該行業中可用的玉米庫存非常低。

So there was a lot of run cuts, a lot of early maintenance taken and the plants really didn't rebound. I'm talking across the industry, I'm not talking just Valero and get rates back up until early October.

所以有很多運行削減，進行了很多早期維護，工廠真的沒有反彈。我說的是整個行業，我說的不僅僅是瓦萊羅，要等到 10 月初才能恢復利率。

And then rates exceeded -- I mean in early October, rates exceeded the 5-year averages. But what was interesting is even with higher rates, the inventory just never built. So when you have a low inventory situation, that leads to high margins, and that's what we saw.

然後利率超過了——我的意思是在 10 月初，利率超過了 5 年的平均水平。但有趣的是，即使利率更高，庫存也從未建立。因此，當您的庫存情況較低時，就會導致高利潤，這就是我們所看到的。

So now the last few weeks of the year and the first few weeks of 2022, we've had significant inventory build. So the margins have come off dramatically.

因此，現在在今年的最後幾周和 2022 年的前幾週，我們已經建立了大量的庫存。因此，利潤率大幅下降。

But that being said, we're still probably where we typically are in the first quarter for ethanol margins. And I think what we always are looking at ethanol now, though, is the longer term, and that's the carbon capture. That's going to provide a great opportunity for us, both from the 45Q and the LCFS. And also, we're producing -- start to produce more and more gallons of cellulosic ethanol from corn fiber. So we're optimistic about both of those.

但話雖如此，我們可能仍處於第一季度乙醇利潤率的通常水平。不過，我認為我們現在一直在關注的乙醇是長期的，那就是碳捕獲。這將為我們提供一個很好的機會，無論是來自 45Q 還是 LCFS。而且，我們正在生產——開始用玉米纖維生產越來越多的纖維素乙醇。所以我們對這兩者都持樂觀態度。

We're also just confident that ethanol is going to remain a part of the domestic fuel mix. We expect higher octane blends in the future, namely 95 RON, which means more ethanol blending. And globally, the renewable fuel mandates are going to drive export growth.

我們也相信乙醇將繼續成為國內燃料組合的一部分。我們預計未來混合辛烷值會更高，即 95 RON，這意味著更多的乙醇混合。在全球範圍內，對可再生燃料的要求將推動出口增長。

So we feel really good about ethanol going forward, maybe not this quarter, next quarter. But longer term, we feel really good about ethanol.

所以我們對未來的乙醇感覺非常好，也許不是這個季度，下個季度。但從長遠來看，我們對乙醇感覺非常好。

Our next question is coming from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Joe, I'm sorry, I'm going to hit the capital allocation question one more time, maybe from a slightly different angle.

喬，對不起，我要再談一次資本配置問題，也許從稍微不同的角度。

So the balance between dividends and buybacks is really what I'm kind of focused on here because, I mean, you could easily buy back 5-plus percent of your stock. That's a pretty healthy dividend growth for an ordinary business and I remind your business. So I'm just kind of curious how you think about the balance going forward as you reconsider the right level of debt perhaps and the right balance between that 40% to 50% cash allocation to cash returns between the dividend and the buyback.

因此，股息和回購之間的平衡確實是我在這里關注的重點，因為我的意思是，你可以輕鬆地回購 5% 以上的股票。對於普通企業來說，這是一個相當健康的股息增長，我提醒你的企業。因此，我只是有點好奇，當您重新考慮適當的債務水平時，您如何看待未來的平衡，以及在股息和回購之間的 40% 至 50% 現金分配與現金回報之間的正確平衡。

I know it's a broad question, but I'm just kind of curious -- I guess what's behind us, Joe, is in years gone by, there's been criticism of buybacks at a high price level. I'm wondering if the buyback is more a tool to manage the dividend burden going forward.

我知道這是一個廣泛的問題，但我只是有點好奇——我猜我們背後的原因，喬，在過去的幾年裡，有人批評高價回購。我想知道回購是否更像是一種管理未來股息負擔的工具。

Yes. No, Doug, it certainly would be. And when you think about where the yield has been, particularly last year, I mean, if we've been flush with cash last year, we would have bought back a ton of shares, but we weren't.

是的。不，道格，肯定會的。當你考慮收益率，特別是去年，我的意思是，如果我們去年現金充裕，我們會回購大量股票，但我們沒有。

And you're right, it is a double-edged sword, right? We end up with good cash flows and typically a high stock price all at the same time. So that's why it's hard to create a formulaic approach to how we look at doing this. And so I think Jason has laid it out. Coming out of COVID, we had a very specific set of priorities that we wanted to put in place. And I think he covered those.

你是對的，這是一把雙刃劍，對吧？我們最終會同時獲得良好的現金流和通常的高股價。所以這就是為什麼很難創建一個公式化的方法來看待我們如何看待這樣做。所以我認為傑森已經說明了這一點。從 COVID 中走出來，我們有一組非常具體的優先事項，我們希望將其落實到位。我認為他涵蓋了這些。

What I'll do is, look, we got a good strong CFO. We'll see what he thinks here. You've got anything you'd like to share?

我要做的是，看，我們有一個優秀的強大的首席財務官。我們會在這裡看看他是怎麼想的。你有什麼想分享的嗎？

Yes, no, everything you said was accurate. And we have to -- we have to have a balanced dividend because as we've proven through the last downturn, we're going to defend it in the downturn. So you have to be wary of making it too high. And the buybacks is the flywheel.

是的，不，你說的一切都是正確的。我們必須——我們必須有一個平衡的紅利，因為正如我們在上一次經濟衰退中所證明的那樣，我們將在經濟衰退中捍衛它。所以你必須小心不要讓它太高。回購就是飛輪。

Yes. So Doug, I wouldn't say -- I mean, we always look at the dividend, and we'd like to increase it. I think there's a time when it will be right to do that. And it's a burden that we've been able to carry. Certainly, it's easy in a good margin environment like we have today. But in the down margin environment, as Jason said, we'd defended it. And it was a bit of a load. But we're committed to it, and we just don't want to get overextended.

是的。所以道格，我不會說 - 我的意思是，我們總是關注股息，我們想增加它。我認為有時這樣做是正確的。這是我們能夠承受的負擔。當然，在我們今天這樣的良好利潤率環境中，這很容易。但正如傑森所說，在利潤率下降的環境中，我們為它辯護。這有點負擔。但我們致力於它，我們只是不想過度擴張。

And it's well positioned versus the peers. Our first step is to look versus our peers, we committed to be up near the top of the end and as long as we're the highest, that box is checked.

與同行相比，它處於有利地位。我們的第一步是與我們的同行進行比較，我們承諾要接近終點，只要我們是最高的，該框就會被選中。

Yes, yes. Guys, I want to be respectful to everyone else, and I'm going to take my second question on the same topic, if you don't mind. Because I'm looking at, for example, what some of the Canadians have done. Think about as the companies that have long-life sustainable assets. Obviously, your business is very similar to that in some respects in terms of the annuity nature.

是的是的。伙計們，我想尊重其他所有人，如果你們不介意，我將就同一主題回答我的第二個問題。因為我正在研究一些加拿大人所做的事情。將其視為擁有長期可持續資產的公司。顯然，就年金性質而言，您的業務在某些方面與該業務非常相似。

So I wonder then whether some folks did question your dividend last year, not as of -- I might add, but why then wouldn't you use your balance sheet, take your balance sheet to a much stronger level, so that kind of concern can be taken out of the investment case? So in other words, why is 20% to 30% the right level? Why not go lower given the shock that we all saw in the past year? And I'll leave it there.

所以我想知道是否有些人去年確實質疑你的股息，而不是 - 我可能會補充，但是你為什麼不使用你的資產負債表，把你的資產負債表提高到一個更強大的水平，所以這種擔憂可以取出投資案例嗎？換句話說，為什麼 20% 到 30% 是正確的水平？鑑於我們在過去一年中看到的衝擊，為什麼不走低呢？我會把它留在那裡。

Doug, that's a fair question. And I can tell you, that's one of the things that Jason and Homer looking at consistently.

道格，這是一個公平的問題。我可以告訴你，這是傑森和荷馬一直關注的事情之一。

The capital markets were very accessible last year, even in the downturn. And rates were so attractive that we were able to really do a good job of financing the business through this. But again, you never really know. Jason?

去年，即使在經濟低迷時期，資本市場也很容易進入。而且利率非常有吸引力，我們能夠通過這種方式真正做好為業務融資的工作。但同樣，你永遠不會真正知道。傑森？

Yes. that's right. One thing we did to address this is hold a higher cash balance. But we also want to have an efficient capital structure and debt is pretty cheap right now. Going to zero debt would give you the maximum flexibility and kind of resilience, but then you have the cost of a higher cost.

是的。這是正確的。我們為解決這個問題所做的一件事是持有更高的現金餘額。但我們也希望有一個有效的資本結構，而現在的債務相當便宜。實現零債務會給你最大的靈活性和彈性，但你要付出更高成本的代價。

But Doug, are you proposing that we would like lever up to buy back shares or something along those lines?

但是道格，你是在提議我們想提高槓桿來回購股票或類似的東西嗎？

Well, it's really -- yes, it's really more that so you're opportunistically positioned to lean on the balance sheet when you need to without the market speculating about the dividend. It's really more -- because I think your business can support an annuity dividend discount model type of approach, but the balance sheet needs to be rightsized to achieve that. And again, I was just really trying to take that volatility out of the go-forward investment case. But I've taken my quoted time, Joe, so I appreciate the answers.

嗯，它真的 - 是的，它真的更多，所以當你需要時，你可以機會主義地依靠資產負債表，而無需市場猜測股息。真的更多——因為我認為您的企業可以支持年金股息貼現模型類型的方法，但資產負債表需要適當調整才能實現這一目標。再說一次，我只是真的想把這種波動性排除在前瞻投資案例之外。但是我已經引用了我的引用時間，喬，所以我很感激答案。

Our next question is coming from Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sankey Research 的 Paul Sankey。

So can I ask you guys about Europe? Just from your perspective, as a major refiner there. What's going on as regards demand, the impact of natural gas prices, crude slates, the whole bit.

那我可以問你們關於歐洲的事嗎？僅從您的角度來看，作為那裡的主要煉油廠。需求、天然氣價格的影響、原油價格等方面的情況如何。

Yes. So this is Gary. I guess what we're seeing in terms of demand is they're kind of ahead of where we are in recovery from the latest spike in COVID cases. If you look at our 7-day in the U.K., we're up about 10% of where we were month to date. So starting to see good recovery in mobility and gasoline demand in the system.

是的。這就是加里。我想我們在需求方面看到的是，它們有點領先於我們從最近的 COVID 病例激增中恢復過來的地方。如果你看看我們在英國的 7 天，我們的漲幅是本月迄今的 10%。因此，系統中的機動性和汽油需求開始出現良好的複蘇。

Again, very similar situation on diesel. ARA stocks are very low. So diesel looks very constructive as well. On the natural gas side, you see some switching of crude diets as a result of the high natural gas prices, still $30 an MMBtu in Northwest Europe. So you see some people kicking out medium and heavy sour grades of crude, running more light sweet.

同樣，柴油的情況非常相似。 ARA 庫存非常低。所以柴油看起來也很有建設性。在天然氣方面，由於天然氣價格高，您會看到一些原油飲食的轉變，在西北歐仍為每 MMBtu 30 美元。因此，您會看到有些人淘汰了中等和重度酸度的原油，而使用了更輕的甜度。

I think where we've seen it the most is optimization around hydroprocessing capacity. So people idling and cutting hydrocracking capacity as a result of very high natural gas prices, which again, puts less diesel in the market and is one of the reasons why we're experiencing all the tightness around diesel that we are.

我認為我們看到最多的是圍繞加氫處理能力的優化。因此，由於天然氣價格非常高，人們閒置並削減了加氫裂化能力，這再次減少了市場上的柴油，這也是我們在柴油方面經歷所有緊張的原因之一。

Excellent answer. Can I just follow up with California? We've seen margins come off quite a bit there. But more importantly, could you talk a bit about how renewable diesel will play through in that market where you're-- you're exposed to both sides. So I just wonder what your perspective is because we could see a situation, obviously, where the market gets quite challenged, I think, by renewables.

優秀的答案。我可以跟進加利福尼亞嗎？我們已經看到那裡的利潤率下降了很多。但更重要的是，您能否談談可再生柴油將如何在您所在的市場中發揮作用 - 您接觸到雙方。所以我只是想知道你的觀點是什麼，因為我們可以看到一種情況，很明顯，我認為市場受到可再生能源的挑戰。

Yes, Paul, this is Martin. Renewable diesel has held up really well from a demand side in California. It's kind of amazing to me going through COVID what we've seen out there.

是的，保羅，這是馬丁。可再生柴油在加利福尼亞的需求方面表現得非常好。經歷我們在外面看到的 COVID 對我來說有點不可思議。

Obviously, deficits have decreased, and they've decreased because of less CARBOB or gasoline use and less diesel use. But renewable diesel and for the first half of the year, and that's the latest stats we have, is running 23% of the diesel pool in California. So it's -- we're blending in an R23 statewide, which is pretty amazing. And a lot of imports coming into California, too, of renewable diesel. So it's kind of held up remarkably well.

顯然，赤字減少了，而且由於減少了 CARBOB 或汽油的使用和柴油的使用，它們也減少了。但可再生柴油和今年上半年，這是我們擁有的最新統計數據，正在運行加州 23% 的柴油池。因此，我們正在全州範圍內融合 R23，這非常了不起。大量可再生柴油也進入加州。所以它保持得非常好。

Now you can say, well, maybe that's why the credit price is down. But I think really, the credit price has got a lot more to do with just less deficits than it has to do with additional credits from renewable diesel.

現在你可以說，好吧，也許這就是信貸價格下降的原因。但我認為，信貸價格與減少赤字的關係比與可再生柴油額外信貸的關係要大得多。

So we -- that's a great market for us. I think what really got hurt, demand-wise, was more in Europe on renewable diesel and probably more in Canada, too, with just the kind of waiting for the CFS. So we expect those 2 to rebound and with that, more demand globally.

所以我們——這對我們來說是一個很好的市場。我認為，從需求角度來看，真正受到傷害的是歐洲更多使用可再生柴油，在加拿大可能更多，只是在等待 CFS。因此，我們預計這兩個將反彈，並因此全球需求增加。

Understood. Could you just throw the answer forward a little bit, as we look over the next couple of years in terms of how the supply/demand, the balance might play out, and I'll leave it there. Sorry, not to make you laugh today, Joe, but...

明白了。你能不能把答案向前一點，因為我們會在未來幾年看看供需平衡如何發揮作用，我會把它留在那裡。抱歉，今天不是為了逗你笑，喬，但是...

Paul, I'll tell you what. We'll have a chance for that here pretty soon, won't we?

保羅，我會告訴你什麼。我們很快就有機會在這裡了，不是嗎？

I think if you play it forward, there's really nothing that stops renewable diesel from -- you can blend it really any rate with renewable diesel, right? There's 85% renewable diesel sold in California today. I think CARB's projections are to get somewhere around R40 by 2030. I think a lot of people think that it could be higher than that.

我認為，如果你向前推進，真的沒有什麼可以阻止可再生柴油的使用——你可以將它與可再生柴油混合，對吧？今天加州銷售的可再生柴油有 85%。我認為 CARB 的預測是到 2030 年達到 40 蘭特左右。我認為很多人認為它可能會更高。

So that's California, but you've also got other states considering LCFS. You've got the CFS in Canada that we're looking forward to by the end of this year. And the Canadian diesel market is twice the size of California's market. So that's going to be a big market for us, and we expect that people will over generate credits early when they can, right?

這就是加利福尼亞，但您也有其他州考慮 LCFS。我們期待在今年年底前在加拿大舉行 CFS。加拿大柴油市場的規模是加利福尼亞市場的兩倍。所以這對我們來說將是一個很大的市場，我們希望人們會在可能的時候儘早產生過多的信用，對吧？

That's what happened in California. There was early credit generation, building up a credit bank, and we expect to see the same thing in Canada, which is good for renewable diesel demand.

這就是加利福尼亞發生的事情。早期的信貸產生，建立了一個信貸銀行，我們希望在加拿大看到同樣的事情，這有利於可再生柴油的需求。

Our next question is coming from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions, please. First is for Martin. I think within the renewable diesel, another product seems to be getting some excitement by some of your peers, SAF. Just want to see whether the company have any interest in where the economics and what needs to change in order for the economics to be competitive with renewable diesel from your standpoint for you to be interested. And if you -- at that point, what kind of investment you will need to make in order to make the switch. So that's the first question.

請教兩個問題。首先是給馬丁。我認為在可再生柴油中，另一種產品似乎讓你們的一些同行感到興奮，SAF。只是想看看公司是否有興趣從你的角度來看，經濟在哪里以及需要改變什麼，以使經濟與可再生柴油競爭，讓你感興趣。如果你 - 在那個時候，你需要進行什麼樣的投資才能進行轉換。所以這是第一個問題。

The second question is probably for Lane. North Atlantic, the fourth quarter margin capture was really good, so great. Just want to see if there's any one-off events, and also that within the 2 facility in Europe and also back in Quebec City, I mean, which is a stronger unit in terms of the margin capture in the fourth quarter?

第二個問題可能是針對萊恩的。北大西洋，第四季度的利潤捕獲非常好，非常棒。只是想看看是否有任何一次性事件，以及在歐洲的第二個設施內以及在魁北克市的情況，我的意思是，就第四季度的利潤捕獲而言，哪個單位更強大？

Okay. It's Martin. I'll get started there, Paul.

好的。是馬丁。我會從那裡開始，保羅。

I think we were all looking at the Build Back Better Bill and what was in that on a tax credit basis for SAF. And what we saw in that incentive level proposed in that bill was not sufficient to attract additional investment to make SAF versus the base case of producing renewable diesel with an existing unit.

我想我們都在關注“重建更好的法案”以及 SAF 在稅收抵免基礎上的內容。我們在該法案中提出的激勵水平中看到的內容不足以吸引額外的投資來製造 SAF，而不是使用現有裝置生產可再生柴油的基本情況。

However, we're still progressing SAF production through our gated engineering process and concurrently, we're developing customers. There are plenty of customers interested in SAF but a favorable tax credit, something else is going to be required, a tax credit or something else, to really get over the hump to where SAF is economic to produce relative to producing renewable diesel.

但是，我們仍在通過門控工程流程推進 SAF 生產，同時，我們正在開發客戶。有很多客戶對 SAF 感興趣，但要獲得優惠的稅收抵免，還需要其他東西，稅收抵免或其他東西，才能真正克服生產 SAF 相對於生產可再生柴油的經濟性。

That being said, we're still confident that SAF production is a question of when and not if. We think the margins will eventually work. The SAF is the only way to reduce the carbon intensity of air travel.

話雖如此，我們仍然相信 SAF 的生產是一個何時而非是否的問題。我們認為利潤最終會起作用。 SAF 是降低航空旅行碳強度的唯一途徑。

And Martin, just -- how big is the -- sorry, Lane. Just wanted to follow up on what Martin said.

馬丁，只是-- 有多大-- 對不起，萊恩。只是想跟進馬丁所說的話。

How big is the gap in terms of the incentive for you to fund SAF to be attractive enough compared to the renewable diesel? And also, technically, that what kind of investment you need to make? And how big is the investment for you that to make DGD that to be able to produce that, call it, 20% or 30% in SAF?

與可再生柴油相比，在您資助 SAF 以使其具有足夠吸引力的激勵方面，差距有多大？而且，從技術上講，您需要進行什麼樣的投資？對你來說，要讓 DGD 能夠在 SAF 中生產，稱之為 20% 或 30% 的投資有多大？

Yes. On the gap, I mean, we're somewhere probably around the $0.70 a gallon gap still, Paul, to make it economic.

是的。關於差距，我的意思是，保羅，我們可能仍然在每加侖 0.70 美元左右，以使其經濟。

On the investment, we're still going through our gated process. So we don't have a number on that yet. We have preliminary numbers, but we don't have a number that we're ready to share yet.

在投資方面，我們仍在進行門控流程。所以我們還沒有一個數字。我們有初步數字，但我們還沒有準備好分享的數字。

Okay. Lane?

好的。車道？

All right. So yes, what's interesting about the 2 refineries we have in the Atlantic Basin is Quebec is seasonally stronger in the fourth and the first quarter, because it's largely a distillate -- very specialized distillate producing refinery when it was configured, whereas Pembroke is really more of a gasoline producing configured refinery. So that's kind of how they work out.

好的。所以，是的，我們在大西洋盆地擁有的兩家煉油廠的有趣之處在於，魁北克在第四季度和第一季度的季節性更強，因為它主要是一種餾分油——在配置時非常專業的餾分油生產煉油廠，而彭布羅克實際上更多的汽油生產配置煉油廠。所以這就是他們的工作方式。

So really, in terms of the fourth quarter performance, it's really Quebec that particularly did well on their margin capture. And obviously, you have the issues with -- around high natural gas prices over in the U.K. Obviously, that sort of hurt their margin capture, Pembroke's.

所以真的，就第四季度的表現而言，魁北克在他們的利潤捕獲方面做得特別好。顯然，你有問題 - 圍繞英國的高天然氣價格。顯然，這會損害他們的利潤捕獲，Pembroke's。

And Lane, is there any one-off item that you're benefiting in the quarter? Or that -- it's just that you guys have done a phenomenal job in the operation ion being able to fully capture the benefit often in the market?

萊恩，您在本季度是否有任何一次性項目受益？或者——只是你們在運營方面做得非常出色，能夠在市場上經常充分地獲取利益？

I like the second answer, but yes. Quebec ran -- they both ran really well in the quarter.

我喜歡第二個答案，但是是的。魁北克跑了——他們在這個季度都跑得很好。

Our next question is coming from Sam Margolin of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin。

Wanted to just circle back to the industry capacity questions. A few other analysts on the call have alluded to a lot of closures over the past 12 months. But there are some third parties and some managements in the industry that are suggesting that the number of closures is even higher than any of us are aware of or any kind of report that we would see might confirm. And so I wonder what your thoughts on that are?

想回到行業容量問題。電話會議上的其他幾位分析師也提到了過去 12 個月的大量倒閉。但業內有一些第三方和一些管理層表示，關閉的數量甚至比我們任何人都知道的要高，或者我們可能會看到的任何類型的報告都可以證實。所以我想知道你對此有何看法？

And then secondly, this is a 2-part question, but only one. Theoretically, where cracks are today, you would think that capacity rationalization would stop here or slow down. But there's other factors that are may be driving some closures. So if you think that this trend could continue based on noneconomic factors, would love your input on that, too.

其次，這是一個兩部分的問題，但只有一個。從理論上講，今天的裂縫在哪裡，你會認為產能合理化會在這裡停止或放緩。但還有其他因素可能會導致一些關閉。因此，如果您認為這種趨勢可能會基於非經濟因素而繼續下去，那麼您也會對此提出意見。

Sam, it's Lane. So we are trying to study the data right now because what we see the similar issue in terms of what -- where utilization is and versus closures. And again, it's just sort of what we're sort of preliminarily deciding or looking at as we think that there's probably some slowdowns that are occurring maybe because of maintenance deferrals or turnaround deferrals in the industry. We don't -- that's not something we know, but it's a theory as to what you're seeing. And certainly, where margins are now, the call on capacity is pretty much max.

山姆，我是萊恩。因此，我們現在正在嘗試研究數據，因為我們在什麼方面看到了類似的問題——利用率在哪里以及與關閉相比。再說一次，這只是我們初步決定或考慮的事情，因為我們認為可能由於行業中的維護延期或周轉延期而發生了一些放緩。我們不知道——這不是我們所知道的，但它是關於你所看到的理論。當然，在現在的利潤空間中，對產能的需求幾乎是最大的。

So other than the turnarounds and the outages, the refinery utilization ought to be in this 90% to 95% range. Once you get all the DOE data worked out to make sure all the refineries that you think shouldn't be in and everything. But that's kind of where we see it as well.

因此，除了周轉和停機之外，煉油廠的利用率應該在 90% 到 95% 的範圍內。一旦你得到了所有的能源部數據，以確保所有你認為不應該在的煉油廠和一切。但這也是我們看到的地方。

Our next question is coming from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Great. Maybe just one quick follow-up on your comments on California from earlier. I know you had talked about some of the longer-term -- or at least issues of low carbon fuel standard credits. Do you have a view on for the next 12 months where you think the LCFS credits go from here? We've gone from $200 to $150-ish. Do you see further downside? Or do you think we stabilize here?

偉大的。也許只是對您之前對加利福尼亞的評論的快速跟進。我知道你談到了一些長期的——或者至少是低碳燃料標准信用的問題。您對未來 12 個月的 LCFS 學分有何看法？我們已經從 200 美元漲到了 150 美元左右。您是否看到進一步的不利因素？或者你認為我們在這裡穩定嗎？

That's a good question. This is Martin. What's difficult about this is you're always driving with your rearview mirror, right? The last -- the data lags by 6 months and -- I'm not complaining about that. It makes sense. It's a lot of data. But -- so we're always kind of -- we've got -- at the end of this month, we'll get the third quarter data.

這是個好問題。這是馬丁。這有什麼困難的是你總是帶著後視鏡開車，對吧？最後一個——數據滯後了 6 個月，而且——我沒有抱怨這一點。這說得通。這是很多數據。但是 - 所以我們總是 - 我們已經 - 在本月底，我們將獲得第三季度的數據。

I think what's interesting is when you look at it, the credit price obviously depends on credit generation versus deficit generation. And COVID certainly reduced deficit generation and it has been since the second quarter of '20. So you have to think the credit prices have been reduced by COVID.

我認為有趣的是，當您查看時，信貸價格顯然取決於信貸產生與赤字產生。 COVID 確實減少了赤字的產生，而且自 20 年第二季度以來一直如此。所以你必須認為信貸價格已經被 COVID 降低了。

And then the other thing that's interesting to me is when you look at the credit generation in 2Q '21, I'd say that it certainly surprised me to the upside. But when you dig into that, there's really 2 line items in the credit generation that stand out.

然後對我來說有趣的另一件事是，當您查看 21 年第二季度的信貸生成時，我會說這肯定讓我感到驚訝。但是，當您深入研究這一點時，在信用生成中確實有 2 個行項目脫穎而出。

The first was that bio CNG, bio compressed natural gas, was 13% of all the 2Q '21 credits, and that line item was up 190% versus 2019. And second, off-road electricity generated 9% of all credits. Now this is off-road, not on-road, and that was up 146% versus 2019.

首先是生物 CNG（生物壓縮天然氣）佔 21 年第二季度所有信用額度的 13%，該項目與 2019 年相比增長了 190%。其次，越野電力佔所有信用額度的 9%。現在這是越野，而不是公路，與 2019 年相比增長了 146%。

And more interestingly, on the off-road, 71% of those credits came from e-forklifts. So when you think about the bio CNG, the off-road, the e-forklifts, you just wonder if that pace of credit generation can continue or the infrastructure and just really the -- gets in the way, right? I don't know how many times you can replace your forklift to get an e-forklift, but it seems like that would run out at some point. So we'll see how that shakes out.

更有趣的是，在越野中，71% 的積分來自電動叉車。因此，當您想到生物壓縮天然氣、越野車、電動叉車時，您只是想知道這種信貸產生的步伐是否可以繼續，或者基礎設施以及真的會阻礙，對嗎？我不知道您可以更換多少次叉車來獲得電動叉車，但似乎在某個時候會用完。所以我們將看看它是如何動搖的。

But if you think about those 2 line items, that's, what, 21%, 22% of the credits in California from 2 line items there, which really were very small in the past. So that's just kind of an interesting data.

但是，如果您考慮一下這兩個行項目，那就是加利福尼亞州的 21%、22% 的信用來自那裡的兩個行項目，這在過去確實非常少。所以這只是一個有趣的數據。

And then the other is biodiesel, renewable diesel and on-road electricity credit generation as a percent of total credits were all flat for 2Q '21 versus 2019 as a whole. That was just a little color. Hopefully, that helps some.

然後另一個是生物柴油、可再生柴油和道路電力信貸發電佔總信貸的百分比在 21 年第二季度與 2019 年整體持平。那隻是一點點顏色。希望這對一些人有所幫助。

Yes. That's great. And then maybe just one overall. I know you've talked a lot about what you've seen generally in terms of demand, particularly here in the U.S. Any comments in terms of what you're seeing on the product export side that may indicate what you're seeing on international product demand, particularly in your primary export markets?

是的。那太棒了。然後可能只是一個整體。我知道你已經談了很多關於你在需求方面的普遍看法，特別是在美國這裡你在產品出口方面看到的任何評論可能表明你在國際上看到的產品需求，尤其是在您的主要出口市場？

Yes, this is Gary. So I would tell you, we're probably seeing -- we're not seeing the recovery in Latin America quite as fast as we've seen in North America or the U.K. So demand is still down a little bit. We're seeing good export demand into the region. I would expect in the first quarter, our exports will be down a little bit, not really an indication of demand in Latin America, but more a function of maintenance activity occurring, especially in the U.S. Gulf Coast during the quarter and really good domestic demand. But the demand is there in Latin America in our typical export markets.

是的，這是加里。所以我會告訴你，我們可能正在看到 - 我們沒有看到拉丁美洲的複蘇速度像我們在北美或英國看到的那樣快。所以需求仍然略有下降。我們看到該地區的出口需求良好。我預計第一季度我們的出口將略有下降，這並不是拉丁美洲需求的真正跡象，而是更多的維護活動發生的功能，特別是在本季度的美國墨西哥灣沿岸和非常好的國內需求.但在我們典型的出口市場中，拉丁美洲的需求是存在的。

Our next question is coming from Jason Gabelman of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

I want to dovetail off a comment that was just made, maintenance in the Gulf Coast. It looks like guidance or throughput is down quarter-over-quarter for 1Q in 4Q, about 300,000 barrels a day. Can you just discuss if -- what maintenance activity you're going to have on 1Q, if there are other onetime items impacting that guidance? And if you think that's indicative of the industry as a whole, just given it seems like there was a lot maintenance delayed due to COVID over the past couple of years.

我想與剛剛發表的評論相吻合，即墨西哥灣沿岸的維護。第一季度和第四季度的指導或吞吐量似乎環比下降，約為每天 300,000 桶。您能否討論一下您將在第一季度進行哪些維護活動，是否有其他一次性項目影響該指導？而且，如果您認為這表明了整個行業，那麼在過去幾年中，由於 COVID 似乎有很多維護延遲。

And then my second question is, hopefully, one you can answer. Kind of on geopolitics and what's going on with Russia. Valero imports a lot of intermediate feedstock from Russia. And can you just discuss maybe the margin kind of enhancement that provides and how you're more broadly thinking about both the risks and opportunities these geopolitical issues with Russia present for your company?

然後我的第二個問題是，希望你能回答。有點關於地緣政治和俄羅斯的情況。 Valero 從俄羅斯進口大量中間原料。您能否討論一下可能提供的利潤率提升，以及您如何更廣泛地考慮這些與俄羅斯的地緣政治問題為您的公司帶來的風險和機遇？

So this is Lane. I'll take the first one. So we don't really comment directly on our turnaround activity going into the quarter. The volumes are the proxy for that, so you can just sort of decide what that means. And we certainly don't -- we also don't comment on our peers on what we think they're doing with respect to turnarounds. This is just sort of a policy for us.

這就是萊恩。我會拿第一個。因此，我們並沒有真正直接評論我們進入本季度的周轉活動。卷是代表，所以你可以決定這意味著什麼。我們當然不會——我們也不會就我們認為他們在周轉方面所做的事情評論我們的同行。這對我們來說只是一種政策。

Gary, you want to talk about Russia?

加里，你想談談俄羅斯嗎？

Yes. So obviously, we don't really -- until any kind of sanctions are announced, we don't really know what they would entail.

是的。所以很明顯，我們真的不知道——在宣布任何形式的製裁之前，我們真的不知道它們會帶來什麼。

What I can tell you is that when we've seen things like this happen in the past in other locations, it simply results in the change in trade flows. So what we would expect to happen here is some of those intermediates that we're running today will be run somewhere else throughout the world. And wherever those end up going, they'll kick out feedstocks that make it available for us to run.

我可以告訴你的是，當我們過去在其他地方看到類似的事情發生時，它只會導致貿易流量的變化。所以我們期望在這裡發生的是我們今天運行的一些中間體將在世界其他地方運行。無論這些最終去哪裡，他們都會淘汰讓我們可以運行的原料。

So certainly, as a commercial team, we're looking at what those are today and making sure we have them approved in our system and are ready to run them if we need to in the future.

所以當然，作為一個商業團隊，我們正在研究這些是什麼，並確保我們在我們的系統中獲得批准，並準備好在未來需要時運行它們。

Our next question is coming from Connor Lynagh of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Connor Lynagh。

Maybe sticking with major exporters. I was wondering what you guys made of the discussion around Pemex potentially ending crude exports? And what do you see as the implications? Do you think it's likely to occur? And what do you think the implications on particularly the Gulf Coast refining industry would be?

也許堅持主要出口商。我想知道你們對圍繞 Pemex 可能終止原油出口的討論有何看法？你認為這意味著什麼？你認為它有可能發生嗎？您認為這對墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油行業有何影響？

Yes. So this is Gary. I think Lane has been pretty public on our views on being able to meaningfully change refinery reliability and utilization. He's kind of said 2 turnaround cycles and a lot of capital.

是的。這就是加里。我認為 Lane 對我們對能夠有意義地改變煉油廠的可靠性和利用率的看法非常公開。他有點說 2 個周轉週期和大量資金。

So it looks like their goals are pretty aggressive. But if they're able to increase refinery utilization, if the Dos Bocas refinery starts up, certainly, it would decrease the amount of crude for export.

所以看起來他們的目標非常激進。但如果他們能夠提高煉油廠的利用率，如果 Dos Bocas 煉油廠啟動，當然會減少出口原油量。

Our view is that the first destinations to be cut will really be European destinations and Asian destinations for export from Mexico. It goes first. Our experience has been that as they increase refinery runs in Mexico, they increase the export of high-sulfur fuel oil, and that's a good feedstock for our high complexity U.S. Gulf Coast system. It actually serves as a nice complement to a lot of the light sweet grades we run in our U.S. Gulf Coast system. We've had a long-standing great relationship with Pemex, and we expect that to continue long into the future.

我們的觀點是，首先要削減的目的地將是墨西哥出口的歐洲目的地和亞洲目的地。它先行。我們的經驗是，隨著他們在墨西哥增加煉油廠的運營，他們增加了高硫燃料油的出口，這是我們高度複雜的美國墨西哥灣沿岸系統的良好原料。它實際上是我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸系統中運行的許多清淡甜味等級的一個很好的補充。我們與 Pemex 建立了長期的良好關係，我們預計這種關係將持續很長時間。

Got it. Helpful context. Maybe just returning to the capacity question, but in a global sense. The closures, obviously, you had sort of a net decline in some areas and you're sort of, at least in theory, flipping back to growth at a global capacity level over the next couple of years here.

知道了。有用的上下文。也許只是回到容量問題，但在全球範圍內。顯然，關閉在某些領域出現了淨下降，至少在理論上，在接下來的幾年裡，全球產能水平將恢復增長。

I mean do you -- are you concerned about that? Do you see that meaningfully altering the -- to your earlier point, product flows or crude flows? Just how do you think about that impact on your margins?

我的意思是你——你擔心這個嗎？您是否看到有意義地改變 - 到您之前的觀點，產品流或原油流？您如何看待這對您的利潤的影響？

This is Lane. I mean, we read the same journals you guys do in trade magazines, and we have people that keep up with refinery closures and refineries starting up. Obviously, the Middle East has some refineries starting up. China has some. I guess we sort of believe that China has this longer-term plan of having larger refineries run instead of what we call the teapot refineries.

這是萊恩。我的意思是，我們閱讀你們在貿易雜誌上閱讀的相同期刊，並且我們的人跟上煉油廠關閉和煉油廠的啟動。顯然，中東有一些煉油廠正在啟動。中國有一些。我想我們有點相信中國有一個經營更大煉油廠而不是我們所謂的茶壺煉油廠的長期計劃。

But at the end of the day, it's hard to really sort of have a real strong view on where all this really heads. I always go back to when the Indian refinery Reliance were starting up, and we were concerned then, and we were -- there were all these theories it's going to cause U.S. refineries stress and calculated their import parity into our marketing. At the end of the day, what happened is most of the barrels stayed in the region. So you just -- these are difficult things to work through.

但歸根結底，很難對這一切真正走向何方有一個真正強烈的看法。我總是回到印度煉油廠 Reliance 剛啟動的時候，那時我們很擔心，而且我們曾經有過所有這些理論，這會導緻美國煉油廠壓力，併計算他們的進口平價到我們的營銷中。歸根結底，發生的事情是大部分桶都留在了該地區。所以你只是 - 這些都是難以解決的事情。

But what we do is we run our assets. We make sure they're competitive not only here in the U.S. but everywhere in the world. And we know that as long as there's Brent out there in this industry, we'll get our share of it. So...

但我們所做的是經營我們的資產。我們確保他們不僅在美國，而且在世界各地都具有競爭力。我們知道，只要這個行業有布倫特原油，我們就會分得一杯羹。所以...

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bhullar for closing comments.

謝謝你。在這個時候，我想把發言權轉回給 Bhullar 先生來結束評論。

Great. Thanks, Donna. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Obviously, if there's anything you want to follow up on, feel free to ping the IR team. Thank you, and have a great week.

偉大的。謝謝，唐娜。謝謝大家，今天加入我們。顯然，如果您有任何想要跟進的內容，請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。謝謝你，祝你度過愉快的一周。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或退出網絡廣播，然後享受剩下的一天。