托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning everyone, and welcome to the Toll Brothers First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) The company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2024 財年第一季電話會議。 （操作員指示）該公司計劃在 9:30 開市時結束通話。 （操作員說明）也請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

And at this time, I'd now like to turn the floor over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

現在，我想請執行長道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley) 發言。請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. Before I begin, I ask you to read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website. I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation, and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results.

謝謝你，傑米。早安.歡迎並感謝大家加入我們。在開始之前，我請您閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告和我們網站上有關前瞻性資訊的聲明。我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的供應、通貨膨脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設，這些因素可能會顯著影響我們的決策。影響未來的結果。

With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP and Treasurer.

今天和我在一起的有財務長馬蒂康納 (Marty Connor)；羅布‧帕拉胡斯 (Rob Parahus)，總裁兼營運長； Fred Cooper，財務與投資者關係資深副總裁；溫蒂‧馬萊特，首席行銷長；以及資深副總裁兼財務主管 Gregg Ziegler。

I'm very pleased with our strong first quarter results. We beat our guidance across the board and saw another quarter of solid sales with contracts up 40% in units and 42% in dollars compared to last year. In addition, since the start of the spring selling season in mid-January, we have seen a meaningful uptick in demand that has continued through this past weekend.

我對我們第一季的強勁業績感到非常滿意。我們全面超越了我們的預期，並看到另一個季度的強勁銷售，與去年相比，合約數量成長了 40%，美元成長了 42%。此外，自一月中旬春季銷售季節開始以來，我們看到需求顯著上升，並持續到上週末。

In our first quarter, we delivered 1,927 homes at an average price of approximately $1 million, generating record first quarter home sales of $1.93 billion, up 10.4% in dollars compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2023. Our adjusted gross margin was 28.9%, 90 basis points better than guidance and 140 basis points better than last year's first quarter. The outperformance versus our guidance was due to mix, driven by earlier-than-expected deliveries in certain of our higher-margin Pacific and Mid-Atlantic communities and fewer-than-expected deliveries in lower-margin mountain communities. SG&A expense at 11.9% of home sales revenues was 20 basis points better than last year's first quarter and 50 basis points better than guidance.

第一季度，我們交付了1,927 套房屋，平均價格約為100 萬美元，第一季房屋銷售額達到創紀錄的19.3 億美元，與2023 財年第一季相比增長10.4%。調整後毛利率為28.9%，比指導值好 90 個基點，比去年第一季好 140 個基點。業績優於我們的指導是由於多種原因造成的，原因是某些利潤較高的太平洋和中大西洋社區的交付早於預期，而利潤較低的山區社區的交付低於預期。 SG&A 費用佔房屋銷售收入的 11.9%，比去年第一季高 20 個基點，比指導值高 50 個基點。

In addition to greater fixed cost leverage from higher revenues, we continue to benefit from cost reduction initiatives we've taken over the past several years. We continue to look for ways to operate more efficiently.

除了收入增加帶來的更大固定成本槓桿之外，我們還繼續受益於過去幾年採取的成本削減措施。我們繼續尋找更有效的營運方法。

Pretax income was $311.2 million and earnings per share were $2.25 diluted, up 23% and 32%, respectively, compared to last year's first quarter.

稅前收入為 3.112 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 2.25 美元，分別比去年第一季成長 23% 和 32%。

With the outperformance in our first quarter and a strong start to the spring selling season, we're raising our full year guidance across all of our key homebuilding metrics. At the midpoint of our guidance, we now expect full year deliveries of 10,250 homes, an adjusted gross margin of 28% and an SG&A margin of 9.8%.

由於第一季的優異表現以及春季銷售季的強勁開局，我們正在提高所有關鍵住宅建築指標的全年指引。在我們指導的中點，我們現在預計全年交付 10,250 套房屋，調整後毛利率為 28%，SG&A 利潤率為 9.8%。

In addition, earlier this month, we sold a parcel of land to a commercial developer for net cash proceeds of $180.7 million, which will result in a pretax land sale gain of approximately $175 million in our second quarter.

此外，本月早些時候，我們向一家商業開發商出售了一塊土地，獲得了 1.807 億美元的淨現金收益，這將導致我們第二季的稅前土地出售收益約為 1.75 億美元。

We're raising our full-year joint venture and other income guidance from $125 million to -- excuse me, to $260 million. Factoring in both the increase in our homebuilding guidance and the impact of this land sale, we now expect to earn between $13.25 and $13.75 per diluted share in fiscal 2024, up from the $12 to $12.50 we guided to last quarter.

我們將全年合資企業和其他收入指引從 1.25 億美元提高到——對不起，提高到 2.6 億美元。考慮到我們住宅建設指導的增加和此次土地出售的影響，我們現在預計 2024 財年稀釋後每股收益將在 13.25 美元至 13.75 美元之間，高於我們上季度指導的 12 至 12.50 美元。

We now also expect a return on beginning equity to be approximately 21% in fiscal 2024, which would be our third year in a row above 20%.

我們現在也預期 2024 財年的期初股本回報率約為 21%，這將是我們連續第三年高於 20%。

Turning to market conditions. Demand in the first quarter was solid. We signed 2,042 net contracts at an average price of $1.011 million, up 40% in units and 42% in total dollars compared to the first quarter of 2023. Demand in our first quarter steadily improved as the quarter progressed, following the normal seasonal pattern. December was stronger than November and January was significantly stronger than December. Based on both deposit and agreement activity, our January was better than normal seasonality. The strong demand has continued through the first 3 weeks of February.

轉向市場狀況。第一季的需求強勁。我們簽署了2,042 份淨合同，平均價格為101.1 萬美元，與2023 年第一季度相比，數量增長了40%，總美元增長了42%。隨著季度的進展，我們第一季的需求按照正常的季節性模式穩定改善。 12 月強於 11 月，1 月明顯強於 12 月。根據存款和協議活動，我們一月份的情況好於正常的季節性。強勁的需求一直持續到二月的前三週。

From a geographic standpoint, demand was broadly distributed across our footprint. We saw particular strength in our Pacific region, including all of California and Seattle and also in Las Vegas, all of Texas, Denver and from Atlanta up through Boston. Demand was solid across all product types as well with affordable luxury accounting for 45% of our units and 34% of dollars, luxury 36% and 49% and active adult at 19% and 17%.

從地理角度來看，需求廣泛分佈在我們的足跡中。我們在太平洋地區看到了特別的優勢，包括整個加州和西雅圖，以及拉斯維加斯、整個德州、丹佛以及從亞特蘭大到波士頓。所有產品類型的需求都很強勁，其中平價奢侈品占我們單位的 45% 和美元的 34%，奢侈品佔 36% 和 49%，活躍成人佔 19% 和 17%。

Another indicator of healthy demand was our deposit-to-agreement conversion ratio, which at 76% in the first quarter was significantly higher than our 5-year average of 67%. We're pleased that we have been able to continue taking advantage of healthy demand while managing our incentives.

健康需求的另一個指標是我們的存款與協議轉換率，第一季為 76%，明顯高於 5 年平均值 67%。我們很高興能夠在管理激勵措施的同時繼續利用健康的需求。

While mortgage rate buy downs are heavily marketed and offered nationwide, very few of our buyers use incentive dollars to buy down their rates. The vast majority of our customers can qualify for a market rate mortgage without a buy down, and they prefer to use any incentive offered on design studio upgrades or to reduce their closing costs. Additionally, consistent with the past several quarters, approximately 25% of our buyers paid all cash in the first quarter and the LTVs for buyers who took a mortgage dropped to approximately 67%, 200 basis points lower than our average over the prior 4 quarters. So for the 75% of our buyers who took a mortgage, on average, they put down 33%. All of these factors highlight the financial strength of our more affluent customers.

雖然抵押貸款利率下調在全國範圍內進行了大量行銷和提供，但我們的買家很少使用激勵資金來下調利率。我們的絕大多數客戶無需首付即可獲得市場利率抵押貸款，他們更願意使用設計工作室升級所提供的任何激勵措施或降低結帳成本。此外，與過去幾季一致，大約 25% 的買家在第一季支付了全部現金，抵押貸款買家的 LTV 下降至約 67%，比前 4 個季度的平均水平低 200 個基點。因此，對於 75% 的抵押貸款買家來說，他們平均首付為 33%。所有這些因素都凸顯了我們更富裕客戶的財務實力。

During the quarter, we once again benefited from our strategy of increasing our supply of spec homes, which represented approximately 50% of orders and 40% of deliveries in the first quarter. As we have discussed before, we sell our specs at various stages of construction from foundation to finished home. This allows many of our spec buyers the opportunity to visit our design studios and personalize their homes with finishes that match their tastes. So choice a pillar of Toll Brothers is still part of our spec strategy. This benefits our margins as design studio upgrades tend to be highly accretive.

本季度，我們再次受益於增加規格住宅供應的策略，該策略約佔第一季訂單的 50% 和交付量的 40%。正如我們之前討論過的，我們在從地基到成品住宅的各個施工階段出售我們的規格。這使得我們的許多規格買家有機會參觀我們的設計工作室，並使用符合他們品味的飾面來個性化他們的房屋。因此，選擇 Toll Brothers 的支柱仍然是我們規格策略的一部分。這有利於我們的利潤，因為設計工作室的升級往往會帶來很高的價值。

We're also pleased that our cancellation rate in the first quarter remained consistent with recent quarters at 2.9% of beginning backlog. Our low cancellation rate speaks to the financial strength of our buyers as well as the sizable deposits they make and how emotionally invested they become as they personalize their new Toll Brothers home.

我們也很高興第一季的取消率與最近幾季保持一致，為初始積壓的 2.9%。我們的低取消率說明了買家的財務實力、他們所支付的大量存款以及他們在個性化他們的新 Toll Brothers 住宅時所投入的情感。

We continue to expect community count growth to help drive results in fiscal 2024 and beyond. In the first quarter, we were operating from 377 communities, 2 more than we guided to last quarter, and we remain on target to reach our year-end guidance of approximately 410 communities, which would be an approximate 10% increase from fiscal year-end 2023. Importantly, we control sufficient land for community cap growth beyond 2024.

我們仍預期社區數量的成長將有助於推動 2024 財年及以後的業績。第一季度，我們在 377 個社區開展業務，比我們上個季度的目標多了 2 個，我們仍然致力於達到約 410 個社區的年底目標，這將比財年增加約 10%。2023 年底。重要的是，我們控制著足夠的土地用於2024 年後社區上限的成長。

At first quarter end, we controlled approximately 70,400 lots, 49% of which were optioned. This land position allows us to be highly selective and disciplined as we assess new land opportunities. We believe we have a competitive advantage acquiring land at the corner of Main and Main, where very few of the big well-capitalized publics and privates play. Our main competition for this land tends to be the smaller local and regional builders who are not as well capitalized. Our balance sheet is very healthy with ample liquidity, low net debt and no significant near-term debt maturities. We also continue to expect strong cash flow generation from operations this year.

截至第一季末，我們控制了約 70,400 手，其中 49% 為選擇權。這種土地位置使我們在評估新的土地機會時能夠具有高度的選擇性和紀律性。我們相信，我們在獲取 Main 和 Main 拐角處的土地方面擁有競爭優勢，而那裡很少有資本充足的大型公共和私人公司參與其中。我們對這塊土地的主要競爭往往是資本不足的小型當地和區域建築商。我們的資產負債表非常健康，流動性充足，淨債務較低，且沒有重大的短期債務到期。我們也繼續預計今年營運將產生強勁的現金流。

In addition, as I mentioned earlier, we received $181 million in cash from a land sale at the start of our second quarter. As a result, we're increasing the amount we're budgeting for fiscal 2024 share repurchases from $400 million to $500 million. Longer term, we continue to expect buybacks and dividends to remain an important part of our capital allocation priorities.

此外，正如我之前提到的，我們在第二季初透過土地出售獲得了 1.81 億美元現金。因此，我們將 2024 財年股票回購的預算金額從 4 億美元增加到 5 億美元。從長遠來看，我們仍然預期回購和股利仍將是我們資本配置優先事項的重要組成部分。

With that, I will turn it over to Marty.

這樣，我就把它交給馬蒂了。

Thanks, Doug. We're very pleased with our first quarter results. We grew both our top and bottom lines and operated more efficiently compared to last year. First quarter net income was $239.6 million or $2.25 per share diluted, up 25% and 32%, respectively, compared to $191.5 million and $1.70 per share diluted a year ago.

謝謝，道格。我們對第一季的業績非常滿意。與去年相比，我們的營收和利潤均有所成長，營運效率也更高。第一季淨利為 2.396 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 2.25 美元，分別成長 25% 和 32%，而去年同期攤薄後淨利潤為 1.915 億美元和每股 1.70 美元。

Our net income and earnings per share were both first quarter records. We delivered 1,927 homes, and generated homebuilding revenues of $1.93 billion. The average price of homes delivered in the quarter was $1.03 million. We signed 2,042 net agreements for $2.06 billion in that first quarter, up 40% in units and 42% in dollars, compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $1.011 million, this was up 1.6% year-over-year and 2.3% on a sequential basis.

我們的淨利潤和每股收益均創第一季記錄。我們交付了 1,927 套房屋，創造了 19.3 億美元的住宅建築收入。本季交付的房屋平均價格為 103 萬美元。第一季度，我們簽署了2,042 份淨協議，價值​​20.6 億美元，與2023 財年第一季度相比，數量增長了40%，美元增長了42%。本季度簽署的合約平均價格約為101.1 萬美元，這是年增1.6%，季增2.3%。

Our first quarter adjusted gross margin was 28.9%, up 140 basis points compared to 27.5% in the first quarter of 2023.

我們第一季調整後的毛利率為 28.9%，比 2023 年第一季的 27.5% 成長了 140 個基點。

As Doug mentioned, Q1 gross margin exceeded our guidance due primarily to more deliveries in our higher-margin Pacific and Mid-Atlantic regions and less-than-expected deliveries in our lower-margin Mountain region. We expect the inverse to be true in our second quarter, and this is reflected in our second quarter adjusted gross margin guidance of 27.6%.

正如道格所提到的，第一季毛利率超出了我們的指導，主要是由於我們利潤率較高的太平洋和中大西洋地區的交付量增加，以及利潤率較低的山區的交付量低於預期。我們預計第二季情況將相反，這反映在我們第二季 27.6% 的調整後毛利率指引中。

Overall, we have increased our full year adjusted gross margin, 10 basis points to 28.0%. Write-offs in our home sales gross margin totaled $1.5 million in the quarter and were all associated with predevelopment costs on deals we're no longer pursuing. SG&A as a percentage of homebuilding revenue was 11.9% in the first quarter, compared to 12.1% in the same quarter 1 year ago. Note that our SG&A expense in that first quarter includes $14 million of accelerated employee stock-based comp expense that only hits in the first quarter. The year-over-year 20 basis point reduction in SG&A margin reflects leverage from increased revenues as well as benefits from tighter cost controls in the face of inflation.

總體而言，我們將全年調整後毛利率提高了 10 個基點，達到 28.0%。本季我們的房屋銷售毛利率沖銷總計 150 萬美元，全部與我們不再追求的交易的預開發成本相關。第一季 SG&A 佔住宅建築收入的比例為 11.9%，而一年前同一季度為 12.1%。請注意，我們第一季的 SG&A 費用包括 1,400 萬美元的加速員工股票補償費用，該費用僅在第一季發生。 SG&A 利潤率較去年同期下降 20 個基點，反映了收入增加帶來的槓桿作用，以及通貨膨脹時更嚴格的成本控制帶來的好處。

Joint venture, land sales and other income was $8.6 million during the first quarter compared to $16.8 million in the first quarter of fiscal year '23. And compared to our guidance of $10 million loss, we exceeded our guidance due primarily to better-than-expected results in our mortgage unit and higher-than-projected interest income. Our tax rate in the first quarter was 23% or about 300 basis points lower than guidance due to the accounting benefit of stock compensation deductions, which we do not expect to repeat at the same level for the rest of the year.

第一季的合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 860 萬美元，而 23 財年第一季為 1,680 萬美元。與我們 1000 萬美元損失的指導相比，我們超出了我們的指導，這主要是因為我們的抵押貸款部門的業績好於預期，而且利息收入高於預期。由於股票薪資扣除的會計效益，我們第一季的稅率為 23%，比指導值低約 300 個基點，我們預計今年剩餘時間不會重複相同水準。

We ended the first quarter with over $2.5 billion of liquidity, including approximately $755 million of cash and $1.8 billion of availability under our revolving bank credit facility. Our facility has 4 years until maturity. Our net debt-to-capital ratio was 21.4% at first quarter end, down from 27.5% 1 year ago. We have no significant maturities of our long-term debt until fiscal 2026 when $350 million of notes come due in November of 2025. Our community count at quarter end was 377 compared to our guide of 375.

截至第一季末，我們的流動資金超過 25 億美元，其中包括約 7.55 億美元的現金和循環銀行信貸安排下的 18 億美元可用資金。我們的設施還有 4 年的時間才能成熟。第一季末我們的淨負債與資本比率為 21.4%，低於一年前的 27.5%。在 2026 財年之前，我們的長期債務不會到期，屆時 3.5 億美元的票據將於 2025 年 11 月到期。季度末我們的社區數量為 377 個，而我們的指導值為 375 個。

Looking forward, our guidance is subject to the usual caveats regarding such forward-looking information. We're projecting fiscal 2024 second quarter deliveries of approximately 2,400 to 2,500 homes with an average delivered price of between $1 million and $1.010 million. For fiscal year 2024, we're increasing our projected deliveries to be between 10,000 and 10,500 homes with an average price between $940,000 and $960,000. As I noted earlier, we expect adjusted gross margin to be 27.6% in the second quarter and 28% for the full year, 10 basis points better than our previous full year guidance.

展望未來，我們的指導意見將受到有關此類前瞻性資訊的常見警告的約束。我們預計 2024 財年第二季將交付約 2,400 至 2,500 套房屋，平均交貨價格在 100 萬至 101 萬美元之間。 2024 財年，我們將預計交付量增加到 10,000 至 10,500 套房屋，平均價格在 940,000 美元至 960,000 美元之間。正如我之前指出的，我們預計第二季調整後毛利率為 27.6%，全年調整後毛利率為 28%，比我們先前的全年指引高 10 個基點。

We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.3% in the second quarter and for the full year. This is also a 10 basis point improvement from our earlier guide. We project second quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 9.7%. For the full year, we expect it to be 9.8%, another improvement of 10 basis points compared to our previous guidance. Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit in the second quarter is expected to be approximately $180 million, which reflects the impact of the commercial land sale, Doug mentioned. We now expect it to be $260 million for the full year, which is up significantly from our prior guide of $125 million. Aside from the land sale, much of this full year other income is projected from sales of our interests in certain stabilized apartment communities developed by Toll Brothers Apartment Living in joint venture with various partners.

我們預計第二季和全年的銷售成本利息約為 1.3%。這也比我們之前的指南提高了 10 個基點。我們預計第二季 SG&A 將佔房屋銷售收入的比例約為 9.7%。對於全年，我們預計為 9.8%，比我們之前的指導又提高了 10 個基點。道格表示，第二季的其他收入、未合併實體的收入和土地出售毛利預計約為 1.8 億美元，這反映了商業土地出售的影響。我們現在預計全年收入為 2.6 億美元，比我們之前的 1.25 億美元指導值大幅提高。除了土地出售外，全年其他收入的大部分預計來自於出售我們在 Toll Brothers Apartment Living 與多個合作夥伴合資開發的某些穩定公寓社區中的權益。

We project the second quarter tax rate to be approximately 25.8% and the full year rate to be approximately 25.5%. That's 50 basis points of improvement compared to our prior full year guide. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 106 million for the second quarter and 105 million for the full year. This assumes we repurchase approximately $166 million of common stock per quarter for the remainder of the year to reach the $500 million guide, Doug referred to earlier.

我們預計第二季稅率約為 25.8%，全年稅率約為 25.5%。與我們之前的全年指南相比，這提高了 50 個基點。我們的加權平均股票數量預計第二季約為 1.06 億股，全年約為 1.05 億股。道格先前提到，假設我們在今年剩餘時間內每季回購約 1.66 億美元的普通股，以達到 5 億美元的目標。

As Doug mentioned, with our updated guidance and the Q2 land sale gain, we now expect to earn between $13.25 and $13.75 per diluted share in fiscal 2024. This would result in a full year return on beginning equity of approximately 21% and would put our year-end book value per share at approximately $77 per share.

正如Doug 所提到的，根據我們更新的指引和第二季度土地出售收益，我們現在預計2024 財年攤薄後每股收益將在13.25 美元至13.75 美元之間。這將導致全年期初股本回報率約為21%，並將使我們的年末每股帳面價值約為每股 77 美元。

Now let me turn it back to Doug.

現在讓我把它轉回給道格。

Thank you, Marty. Before I open it up for questions, I'd like to thank our Toll Brothers' employees for another great quarter. I'm so proud of their dedication, hard work and commitment to each other and our customers. Their talent and constant focus on our business is the driver of our long-term success.

謝謝你，馬蒂。在開始提問之前，我要感謝 Toll Brothers 的員工又一個出色的季度。我為他們的奉獻精神、辛勤工作以及對彼此和客戶的承諾感到非常自豪。他們的才華和對我們業務的持續關注是我們長期成功的驅動力。

Jamie, with that, let's open it up to questions.

傑米，接下來，讓我們開始提問。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, the company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Jesse Lederman from Zelman & Associates.

女士們、先生們，現在我們開始問答環節。提醒一下，該公司計劃在 9:30 開市時結束通話。 （操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Jesse Lederman。

It's actually Ivy, but first, I just want to say congratulations. This is a great quarter and really excited about your strategic initiatives of driving returns higher with the land sale expected in '24, just thinking about other opportunities to generate cash flow to maybe do some continued buybacks or other ways to drive returns higher. But it's really been quite a tremendous improvement in just overall management, working capital and returns and love to see continued improvement. And wondering how strategically you can do so?

其實是Ivy，但首先我只想說恭喜。這是一個很棒的季度，對您透過24 年預計土地出售來推動回報更高的策略性舉措感到非常興奮，只是考慮其他產生現金流的機會，也許可以進行一些持續的回購或其他方式來推動回報更高。但在整體管理、營運資金和回報方面確實取得了巨大的進步，並且希望看到持續的改善。想知道如何從戰略上做到這一點？

Thank you, Ivy. Yes, the land sale was I shouldn't say never, but I think it was a one-off. We had a unique piece of property in Northern Virginia that we were processing for approvals to build homes on, and a data center operator came along and made us an offer that we couldn't refuse. There could be something like that out there, one never knows. But we will continue to always look for opportunities to be more capital efficient, to drive gross margin, to grow this company. And that's beyond just core homebuilding where we get bigger in the markets we're in, and we have lots of opportunities to do that because as everyone knows, at our price point, we tend to have a fairly small market share in many of our markets. And as we expand our price points, coming down in price, we have great opportunities in our 60 markets that we're in to get bigger.

謝謝你，艾維。是的，土地出售我不應該說永遠不會，但我認為這是一次性的。我們在維吉尼亞州北部擁有一處獨特的房產，正在申請建造房屋的批准，一位資料中心營運商出現了，並向我們提出了一個我們無法拒絕的報價。那裡可能存在類似的東西，人們永遠不知道。但我們將繼續尋找機會提高資本效率、提高毛利率、發展公司。這不僅僅是核心住宅建設，我們在我們所在的市場上做得更大，而且我們有很多機會這樣做，因為眾所周知，在我們的價格點上，我們在許多領域的市場份額往往相當小。市場。隨著我們擴大價格點、降低價格，我們在 60 個市場中擁有巨大的機會來擴大規模。

We have the widest variety of product and the widest range of price of any of the builders. And so we think that gives us the greatest opportunity for core growth within home building. Outside of that, we'll continue to focus on the apartment business. We'll continue to focus on other opportunities to generate positive cash flow. And as you can see -- as you know, we're committed to return capital to shareholders. We're taking the vast majority of the proceeds from the data center sale to increase our buyback. We're committed long term to the dividend. We're committed to continue to grow that dividend. And so I'm just really pleased with where we're. The initiatives to come down in affordable luxury price points is now well on its way with 40% plus of our sales and our closings now in what we call the affordable luxury business model.

我們擁有所有建築商中最廣泛的產品和最廣泛的價格範圍。因此，我們認為這為我們在住宅建築領域的核心成長提供了最大的機會。除此之外，我們將繼續專注於公寓業務。我們將繼續關注其他產生正現金流的機會。正如您所看到的，我們致力於向股東返還資本。我們將從資料中心出售中獲得的大部分收益用於增加我們的回購。我們致力於長期派發股息。我們致力於持續增加股利。所以我對我們現在的處境非常滿意。降低平價奢侈品價格點的措施目前正在順利進行，我們的銷售額增加了 40% 以上，並且我們現在以我們所謂的平價奢侈品商業模式關閉。

We've also committed to a greater spec strategy, and that is really working well, 50% of our sales in the first quarter were spec, 40% of our deliveries were spec. The market is very much in place with the tight resale market to gravitate towards Toll spec, particularly since, as I explained, much of that spec still allows us to offer choice where they can go to the design studio and pick finishes. And spec is not just affordable luxury. It's not just the lower priced, lower margin communities. We're building spec across all of our price points, all of our product lines.

我們也致力於實施更大的規格策略，這確實運作良好，第一季我們的銷售額中有 50% 是規格，我們的交付量中有 40% 是規格。市場已經非常成熟，轉售市場緊張，傾向於收費規格，特別是因為，正如我所解釋的，大部分規格仍然允許我們提供選擇，他們可以去設計工作室並挑選飾面。規格不僅僅是負擔得起的奢侈品。不只是價格較低、利潤較低的社區。我們正在建立所有價位、所有產品線的規格。

And so -- you gave me a general question, I gave you a general answer.

所以——你給了我一個一般性的問題，我給了你一個一般性的答案。

No, no. It's really helpful. I think one thing that you've also done is a significant debt reduction, which the balance sheet is the best position it's ever been in. So I think that you're probably -- my guess would be at a debt to capital level that you're comfortable with. So are there opportunities for bolt-on acquisitions, given that privates are really disadvantaged for many reasons, not to mention cost of capital? Or is it more likely that you'll continue to grow organically and focus on share buyback to be capital efficient and generate higher returns?

不，不。這真的很有幫助。我認為你們還做了一件事，就是大幅削減債務，資產負債表處於有史以來最好的位置。所以我認為你們可能——我的猜測是債務與資本水平你很舒服。那麼，鑑於私人企業由於多種原因（更不用說資本成本）確實處於不利地位，是否存在補強收購的機會？或者您更有可能繼續有機成長並專注於股票回購，以提高資本效率並產生更高的回報？

Thank you. We're always in the conversation on M&A. We've acquired 15 builders in 30 years. We're very selective. I'm very happy with our geographic footprint. So I can't tell you that there's 5 or 10 markets out there that we really want to get into, where you use M&A most often to enter a new market. But there are a few markets we're looking at that are new, and there's many opportunities for bolt-on M&A to get bigger and diversify the offering in an existing market.

謝謝。我們一直在討論併購問題。 30 年來我們收購了 15 家建築商。我們非常有選擇性。我對我們的地理足跡非常滿意。所以我不能告訴你我們真正想進入的市場有 5 個或 10 個，在這些市場中你最常使用併購來進入新市場。但我們正在關註一些新市場，並且有很多機會進行補強併購，以擴大現有市場的規模並實現產品多元化。

About 5 of our 15 acquisitions were in existing markets. So those opportunities still exist. You're right, the M&A market has heated up a lot, and we're certainly studying opportunities. But I think you're going to see more with capital return to shareholders with Toll than you're going to see new M&A.

我們的 15 項收購中約有 5 項是在現有市場。所以這些機會仍然存在。你是對的，併購市場已經升溫很多，我們當然正在研究機會。但我認為，與新的併購相比，您會看到更多的拓領股東資本回報。

Our next question comes from Sam Reid from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Awesome. Congrats on the quarter. I wanted to touch on the updated delivery guide for '24. It clearly shows you're seeing some momentum in the spring, but my question is kind of help us gauge the level of conservatism that might be embedded in that outlook? And what would we need to see specifically in March and April for you to be comfortable to take that number up again?

驚人的。恭喜本季。我想談談 24 年更新的交付指南。它清楚地表明你在春天看到了一些勢頭，但我的問題是幫助我們衡量這種前景中可能包含的保守主義程度？我們需要在三月和四月具體看到什麼，才能讓您放心地再次增加這個數字？

Marty, do you want to go with that? Marty is looking at me. Why don't you answer this?

馬蒂，你想一起去嗎？馬蒂正在看著我。為什麼不回答這個問題？

That's a tough question to answer, the level of conservatism. I think, Sam, it's safe to say there's no difference in the construct of our guidance right now than there traditionally has been. I think, obviously, if we see a really strong March and April, particularly with our spec strategy, that could result in additional deliveries beyond the guide that we've given. But we're very comfortable with the guidance we've given. And we'll update it in 3 more months.

這是一個很難回答的問題，就是保守主義的程度。我認為，山姆，可以肯定地說，我們現在的指導方針的結構與傳統上沒有什麼不同。我認為，顯然，如果我們看到 3 月和 4 月的表現非常強勁，尤其是我們的規格策略，那麼可能會導致額外的交付量超出我們給出的指南。但我們對所提供的指導感到非常滿意。我們將在 3 個月後更新它。

And remember, on the build-to-order side of our business, which is 50% to 60% of our operation, these houses are big, these houses are complicated. They have upgrades because we send everybody through our design studio and let them design their house to their lifestyle. And so they take some time to build. So we're now 3.5 months into fiscal '24, and there aren't all that many communities remaining, where the next sale of a build-to-order home can be delivered by the end of October. There are still some communities that can do that. But with every passing week, there are less and less. And we do have a lot of specs in process that are certainly going to be completed, sold and delivered by year-end. But I think as the year progresses, our guidance becomes even more definitive because of the build-to-order nature of our business.

請記住，在我們業務的按訂單生產方面（占我們運營的 50% 到 60%），這些房子很大，這些房子很複雜。他們進行了升級，因為我們讓每個人都通過我們的設計工作室，讓他們根據自己的生活方式設計自己的房子。因此，它們需要一些時間來建造。現在距離 24 財年還有 3.5 個月了，剩下的社區已經所剩無幾，可以在 10 月底之前交付下一批按訂單建造的房屋。仍然有一些社區可以做到這一點。但隨著一週過去，數量越來越少。我們確實有很多規格正在製定中，這些規格肯定會在年底前完成、銷售和交付。但我認為隨著時間的推移，由於我們業務的按訂單生產性質，我們的指導變得更加明確。

No, that's helpful. And maybe to drill down a little bit more on that kind of spec build-to-order dynamic here. So on your gross margin guide for second quarter, can you give us a sense as to what the spread between your spec deliveries and your build-to-order deliveries might be between those 2 buyer groups? And is there any inclination that, that could potentially narrow going forward?

不，這很有幫助。也許可以在這裡更深入地了解這種按訂單生產的規格動態。那麼，在第二季的毛利率指南中，您能否讓我們了解這兩個買家群體之間的規格支付和按訂單生產交付之間的差距是多少？未來是否有可能縮小這範圍的傾向？

Yes, it's a great question. It has narrowed. Let me give a little historical for the last few quarters. In Q4 of '23, our spec gross margin was 26.3%. In Q1 of '24, this past quarter, that jumped to 27.9%. And as you know, the gross margin for the company for the first quarter was 28.9%. So in the first quarter, specs ran exactly 100 basis points below the full gross margin for the quarter.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。它已經縮小了。讓我介紹一下過去幾季的歷史情況。 23 年第四季度，我們的規格毛利率為 26.3%。在 2024 年第一季度，也就是上個季度，這一比例躍升至 27.9%。如您所知，該公司第一季的毛利率為28.9%。因此，第一季的規格比該季度的總毛利率整整低了 100 個基點。

Now some of those specs came out of the West of Pacific region, California and were more expensive and had a higher embedded gross margin in them, but we're definitely encouraged by the increase in spec gross margin over time here, and we think that will continue. So in terms of the second quarter guide, guys, I think it's probably fair that, that 100 basis point difference is about where we'll be.

現在，其中一些規格來自加州的西太平洋地區，價格更高，內嵌毛利率也更高，但我們絕對對這裡規格毛利率隨著時間的推移而增加感到鼓舞，我們認為將繼續。因此，就第二季度指南而言，夥計們，我認為 100 個基點的差異就是我們將達到的水平，這可能是公平的。

Yes, I think so. It might be a little wider than that because it came back less from the Pacific. But again, it depends to a certain extent on how strong the spring is, and what we do with pricing as we progress.

是的，我想是這樣。它可能比這更寬一點，因為它從太平洋回來的次數較少。但同樣，這在一定程度上取決於春天的強度，以及我們在進展過程中如何定價。

Please understand our business strategy and our business modeling is for the spec business to have a lower gross margin. We expect that the houses tend to -- the specs tend to be built on the more average lot that doesn't have the high lot premium. We save that very high lot premium for the build-to-order business, where that client will spend a lot more money in the design studio. We also -- while we upgrade the spec homes, we don't take them, in some cases, to the level that the client will, in a build-to-order purchase.

請理解我們的業務策略和業務模型是為了規格業務具有較低的毛利率。我們預計，這些房屋的規格往往是建立在沒有高地塊溢價的更普通地塊上的。我們為按訂單生產業務節省了非常高的溢價，客戶將在設計工作室花費更多的錢。我們也－在升級規格房屋的同時，在某些情況下，我們不會將它們達到客戶按訂單生產的水平。

So -- and we also know that some of the spec inventory does make its way all the way to the end, where it's a completed home that is unsold. And when that does happen, we know we may have to incentivize a bit more to move it because it's standing finished inventory that can deliver. So our strategy has always been, as we got into the spec business that there would be a lower gross margin, but we're very pleased with how close it has been to the overall company's margin.

因此，我們也知道，一些規格庫存確實會一直到最後，即一棟未售出的已完工房屋。當這種情況確實發生時，我們知道我們可能需要更多的激勵措施來移動它，因為它是可以交付的常備成品庫存。因此，我們的策略一直是，當我們進入規格業務時，毛利率將會降低，但我們對它與公司整體利潤率的接近程度感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

I appreciate all the color. And I just wanted to zoom the lens out a little bit and try to get a sense for maybe if 2024 is a year, where we can see some of the dust settle on rates and some of the volatility subside. If we could focus a little bit more on what your longer-term targets are and how you seek to operate the business. Let's start with the -- with what you just were talking about with an increased spec mix, I would assume that, that would allow you to run at a higher level of absorptions or sales per community. And I think that you've talked in the past about something in the 24, 25 per year range.

我欣賞所有的顏色。我只是想把鏡頭拉遠一點，試著了解 2024 年是否是一年，我們可以看到利率方面的一些塵埃落定，一些波動性消退。如果我們能更專注於您的長期目標是什麼以及您尋求如何經營業務的話。讓我們從您剛才所說的增加規格組合開始，我認為這將使您能夠以更高的水平吸收或每個社區的銷售。我認為您過去曾談論過每年 24 到 25 範圍內的事情。

I was curious as to whether or not if this spec strategy is something that's going to be a going forward kind of a thing? We might see that more approach something like 30 a year, how you sort of feel about that? And also whether we might see your backlog turnover ratio also sort of remain or move higher, let's say, into the 40s on backlog turns? I'm not talking about the next quarter, I'm not even talking this year, I'm just talking about in general going forward.

我很好奇這個規範策略是否會成為未來的事？我們可能會看到每年 30 人左右，您對此有何感想？另外，我們是否會看到你們的積壓週轉率也保持不變或上升，比如說，積壓週轉率達到 40 多歲？我不是說下個季度，我甚至不是在談論今年，我只是在談論未來的整體情況。

Great question, Stephen. You're spot on. We delivered 27 homes per community in 2023, and we expect to be at 27 to 28 homes per community in 2024.

好問題，史蒂芬。你說得對。 2023 年，我們為每個社區交付了 27 套住房，預計到 2024 年，每個社區將交付 27 至 28 套住房。

In '23, we did 23 to 24. Yes. In '24, we're doing 27.

23年，我們做了23到24次。是的。 24 年，我們做了 27 個。

Did I not say that?

我沒說過嗎？

I think you said 23 twice. I'm sorry, you said 27 twice.

我想你說了兩次 23。對不起，你說了兩次27。

My apologies. 24 per community in 2023 and 27 to 28 per community in 2024. And that is in part the spec strategy, it's in part cycle time coming down, but it's primarily the new strategy we have of building more and more spec. We think that can improve as we head into '25 and beyond, and we're certainly planning for that. You talk about 30 per year. Yes. That's out there. That's a goal, that's achievable.

我很抱歉。 2023 年每個社區 24 個，2024 年每個社區 27 到 28 個。這部分是規範策略，部分是週期時間下降，但這主要是我們建構越來越多規範的新策略。我們認為，隨著我們進入 25 年及以後，這種情況會有所改善，我們當然正在為此做好計劃。你說的是每年30個。是的。那就在那裡。這是一個目標，是可以實現的。

With the spec strategy, we're nimble, we're flexible. We follow the market. And right now, there is a very, very strong market for our spec homes that can be delivered faster, particularly those homes that we may put on the market at frame that still allows the client the opportunity to get the design studio and pick the finishes to suit their lifestyle. So it's been a big move for the company to go from less than 10% spec to now the 40% to 50% range. We're committed to it.

憑藉規格策略，我們非常靈活。我們跟隨市場。目前，我們的規格住宅有一個非常非常強勁的市場，可以更快地交付，特別是那些我們可能以框架形式投放市場的住宅，仍然允許客戶有機會聯繫設計工作室並挑選飾面以適應他們的生活方式。因此，對於該公司來說，從低於 10% 的規格提高到現在的 40% 到 50% 範圍是一個重大舉措。我們致力於此。

And it's going to be another reason why we think we can increase community absorptions. And that's where we're certainly headed. The existing homes, the resales on the market are still historically tight even with a modest drop in rates that has not freed up the resale market. There is still a lock-in effect. And let's not forget, even as rates do come down, which I think they will, and that market begins to modestly loosen up, the average resale home is now 45 years old. There is a flight to new that is not just because of unavailable inventory due to the lock-in effect, but because of the quality of that resale inventory, and that will continue even as rates come down and the resale market unlocks.

這將是我們認為可以增加社區吸收的另一個原因。這就是我們的前進方向。儘管利率小幅下降並沒有釋放轉售市場，但現有房屋和轉售市場仍處於歷史緊張狀態。鎖定效應仍然存在。我們不要忘記，即使利率確實下降了（我認為他們會下降），而且市場開始適度放鬆，轉售房屋的平均年齡現在已經是 45 年了。人們紛紛轉向新產品，這不僅是因為鎖定效應導致庫存不足，還因為轉售庫存的質量，而且即使利率下降和轉售市場開放，這種情況也將持續下去。

Great. Yes. I appreciate that. You -- I didn't hear the backlog turn comment, I don't think, in terms of where we could see that going. But -- so I don't get cut off. I want to make sure I ask my second question, which is about gross margins and SG&A and basically operating margin.

偉大的。是的。我很感激。你——我沒有聽到積壓的評論，我認為，就我們可以看到的情況而言。但是──這樣我就不會被打斷。我想確保我問了第二個問題，即毛利率、SG&A 以及營業利潤率。

You've given a rubric for this year or you've given guidance this year for effectively a 17% operating margin with an SG&A rate that's kind of in the high 9s. So I wanted to sort of think about that in the same kind of context like kind of how you think about your business longer term? When we look back at your margin history, we've had a lot of changes over the last couple of decades. And so -- as we look ahead at how you seek to operate your business, should we be thinking that 17% is kind of like a normalized level for you? Or do you think that the normalized level would be meaningfully different? And if you could unpack sort of would that be the difference? Would that be more on the SG&A side, maybe opportunities to get that lower or in the gross margin side relative to your guidance for the full year?

您已經給出了今年的標題，或者給出了今年的指導，以實現 17% 的營業利潤率和 9 左右的 SG&A 比率。所以我想在同樣的背景下思考這個問題，就像你如何看待你的業務的長期發展一樣？當我們回顧您的保證金歷史時，我們在過去幾十年中發生了許多變化。因此，當我們展望您如何經營業務時，我們是否應該認為 17% 對您來說有點像正常水平？或者您認為標準化程度會有顯著差異嗎？如果你能打開包裝，會有什麼不同嗎？與您全年的指導相比，SG&A 方面是否會更多，也許有機會降低或毛利率方面？

So Stephen, I think operating margin is very important to us. Returns are very important to us. I think the numbers you're seeing are pretty close to where our long-term expectations might be. 17% that you mentioned is a really good number, maybe as high as 18% we're looking for upper teens to low 20s return on equity. I want to throw in a shout out there for JV other and land sales as it relates to generating returns as well because it is something we have a history of doing.

所以史蒂芬，我認為營業利潤率對我們來說非常重要。回報對我們來說非常重要。我認為您看到的數字非常接近我們的長期預期。你提到的 17% 是一個非常好的數字，也許高達 18%，我們正在尋找十幾歲到二十多歲的股本回報率。我想對其他合資企業和土地銷售大聲疾呼，因為這也與產生回報有關，因為這是我們歷史上一直在做的事情。

Gross margins feel very good right now at this level. They feel relatively sustainable at this level, and we'll continue to work on reducing our SG&A with our technology, investments and efficiencies that we can try and generate.

目前在這個水平上，毛利率感覺非常好。他們感覺在這個層面上相對可持續，我們將繼續努力利用我們可以嘗試和產生的技術、投資和效率來減少銷售及管理費用。

Yes. Stephen, I think we have a long-term strategy to continue to maintain a gross margin in the 27%, 28% range. We have an SG&A around 9%, which generates the operating margin at or above your 17% number.

是的。史蒂芬，我認為我們有一個長期策略，繼續將毛利率維持在 27%、28% 的範圍內。我們的 SG&A 約為 9%，這會產生等於或高於您 17% 的營業利潤率。

Our next question comes from Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的麥克達爾。

A lot of helpful color and context around how you're thinking about the business. Maybe just to draw back to kind of a little more near term. As you've seen the demand progress favorably through the last couple of months, can you talk more specifically about what you have seen and done on pricing? Our sense is you're still kind of net home pricing relatively flat, but can you talk about what you've done on kind of net pricing and how you're balancing pace price incentives given the rebound in demand here?

關於您如何看待業務的大量有用的色彩和背景。也許只是為了回溯到更近期的情況。由於您在過去幾個月中看到需求進展順利，您能否更具體地談談您在定價方面的所見所聞和所做的事情？我們的感覺是，您的房屋淨定價仍然相對平穩，但您能否談談您在淨定價方面所做的工作，以及考慮到這裡的需求反彈，您如何平衡價格激勵措施？

Sure. So in the first quarter, we had price increases in about 2/3 of our communities. We also had a modest increase in incentives that was because the spec sales went up to 50%. And as I've already talked about on a prior question, we do -- we have seen modestly higher incentives on the specs. So overall, I'd say the pricing has been flat. When you combine the modest price increases in 2/3 of communities with the modest increase in incentives on the spec sales, we have seen flat pricing.

當然。因此，在第一季度，我們大約 2/3 的社區出現了價格上漲。我們的激勵措施也略有增加，因為規格銷售量上升了 50%。正如我已經在之前的問題上談到的那樣，我們確實看到了規格上適度更高的激勵措施。總的來說，我想說定價是持平的。當您將 2/3 社區的適度價格上漲與規格銷售激勵措施的適度增長結合起來時，我們看到了平價。

As we entered the spring season, a month ago, as we do in most spring seasons, we take the first month or so to monitor where the market is because the beginning of the spring season is very important for us to feel how much momentum and how much pricing power we may have through the spring. As we talked about, we've had a terrific 4 weeks. This is about the time when we're in a good spring season, that we begin to have price increases around the country. They will be modest because we're being careful, rates while they came down, they've ticked up a little bit. And so we're still being cautious. We want to continue to drive sales. We have the capacity, as we've talked about, particularly with the spec program to deliver these homes. And so there will be starting right around now modest price increases as we head further into the spring season.

當我們進入春季時，一個月前，就像我們在大多數春季所做的那樣，我們會用第一個月左右的時間來監測市場的情況，因為春季的開始對我們來說非常重要，可以感受到有多少動力和潛力。整個春季我們可能擁有多少定價權。正如我們所說，我們度過了美好的 4 週。現在正值春暖花開的季節，全國各地的物價開始上漲。它們會很溫和，因為我們很小心，利率在下降的同時，也略有上升。所以我們仍然保持謹慎。我們希望繼續推動銷售。正如我們所討論的，我們有能力交付這些房屋，特別是在規格計劃方面。因此，隨著我們進一步進入春季，價格將從現在開始小幅上漲。

Got it. Okay. Yes, that's kind of a follow-up in terms of how you were thinking about that relative to the more recent uptick in rates again. So I appreciate that.

知道了。好的。是的，就您如何看待相對於最近利率再次上漲的情況而言，這是一種後續行動。所以我很欣賞這一點。

I guess, just secondly, on the updated other joint venture land sales, you outperformed in the quarter, you've got the new guide in there that's attributable to the one-off large parcel. It seems like ex that, you didn't increase the guide by the full amount of this land sale. So maybe can you just talk through what some of the other moving pieces are in that line, whether it's kind of some of the delayed JV interest sales or anything that kind of got pushed out into fiscal '25?

我想，其次，在更新的其他合資土地銷售方面，你們在本季度的表現優於大盤，你們在那裡得到了新的指南，這歸因於一次性的大地塊。看來您並沒有以本次土地出售的全額增加指引。那麼，也許您可以談談該領域的其他一些活動，無論是推遲的合資企業利息銷售還是推遲到 25 財年的任何事情？

Sure. At the beginning of the year, Mike, JV land sales and other included a placeholder of $40 million to $50 million for that land sale. We didn't want to count on all of it as there was very little deposit up and such deposit was not hard, but we also didn't want to fully discount it. So we had handicapped it at 25% to 35% likelihood of occurring. And so we included $40 million to $50 million from that in our JV and other.

當然。今年年初，麥克、合資公司土地銷售和其他人為該土地銷售提供了 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的佔位權。我們不想指望全部，因為存款很少，而且存款並不難，但我們也不想完全打折。所以我們將其發生的可能性控制在 25% 到 35%。因此，我們將 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元投入我們的合資企業和其他企業。

So when we increased the guidance, it's not just being increased for the $175 million. It's being increased a little less than that for the land sale, but some other things as well that are puts and takes. The important part is our guide was $125 million, and it's now $260 million. And a lot of that $260 million has occurred as we sit here today.

因此，當我們提高指導值時，不僅僅是增加 1.75 億美元。它的增加比土地出售的增加要少一些，但還有一些其他的東西，例如賣出和索取。重要的是我們的指導價是 1.25 億美元，現在是 2.6 億美元。當我們今天坐在這裡時，這 2.6 億美元中的大部分已經發生。

Our next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

Marty, can you just help bridge us between the first quarter gross margin of 28.9% and the second quarter guidance of 27.6%. I know there's a mix impact in there. But you're guiding to flattish delivery ASP. So I just wanted to understand, like how much was the unexpected mix benefit to 1Q? Is that the full 90 basis points? And then what is the sort of reversal of that or normalization in the second quarter?

馬蒂，您能否幫助我們在第一季 28.9% 的毛利率和第二季 27.6% 的指導值之間架起一座橋樑。我知道其中存在混合影響。但您正在引導平均交付 ASP。所以我只是想了解，例如 1Q 的意外混合收益有多少？這是完整的 90 個基點嗎？那麼第二季這種情況的逆轉或正常化是怎麼樣的呢？

Yes. I think the majority of the 90 basis points was driven by the acceleration of high margin mix. And so there will be an inverse effect from that in the second quarter. Another component of our outperformance in the first quarter, Doug touched on earlier in that our QMI gross margin came in a little better than we expected -- I'm sorry, the spec -- excuse me, the spec QMI is our internal term for quick move-in home. Spec is what you guys understand.

是的。我認為 90 個基點的大部分是由高利潤率組合的加速所推動的。因此，第二季將會產生相反的影響。我們第一季表現優異的另一個組成部分，Doug 早些時候提到，我們的 QMI 毛利率比我們預期的要好一些——對不起，規格——對不起，規格 QMI 是我們的內部術語快速搬進家。 Spec 就是你們所理解的。

In the first quarter, it came in a little better than we thought. As we look at our second quarter, we expect less Pacific and high-margin Mid-Atlantic deliveries. We also expect more QMIs as a percentage of total -- specs, excuse me, as a percentage of total, than happened in the first quarter.

第一季的情況比我們想像的要好一些。展望第二季度，我們預計太平洋地區和大西洋中部地區的交付量將減少。我們也預期 QMI 佔總數的百分比，對不起，佔總數的百分比比第一季要多。

Let's not get too hung up on quarter-to-quarter because the full year gross margin guide has been increased by 10 basis points.

我們不要太關注季度環比，因為全年毛利率指引已經提高了 10 個基點。

And another 10 basis points on interest in cost of sales.

銷售成本利息另外增加 10 個基點。

Got it. Okay. Yes. That's helpful and that makes sense. And then just longer term on the increased mix of QMI or spec. There's been this strategy change, it's been successful. What has changed from the perspective of the market or from Toll's positioning, where this makes more sense now than it has maybe like historically? Is this temporary because resale is -- the resale market is really tight, what should we expect spec to go up or down over time depending on what's going on in the market? Or is this something where structurally so much changed at Toll where this makes sense that it hasn't historically to run spec at a higher percentage?

知道了。好的。是的。這很有幫助，而且很有意義。然後從長遠來看，增加 QMI 或規格的組合。這一策略的改變是成功的。從市場或拓領的定位的角度來看，發生了什麼變化？現在這比歷史上的情況更有意義？這是暫時的嗎？因為轉售市場非常緊張，我們應該期望規格會隨著時間的推移而上升或下降，這取決於市場上發生的情況？或者說，Toll 在結構上發生了很大的變化，因此歷史上沒有以更高的百分比運行規格，這是有道理的？

Yes. What triggered it was the historically tight resale market, and we realized there was a void there that we could fill. But I do think this is long term, it's structural for a number of reasons. I mentioned the age of the resale home, the condition of that 45-year-old home, we have a number of people sitting around this table here that have taken themselves out of the market because they can't find a home of decent quality out there on the resale market. We've also expanded our geographic footprint. We have come down in price. While we're building spec, as I mentioned, in all of our different price points, there is -- I think, the confidence we got from having more affordable luxury communities that naturally would have more spec opportunities also helped us move this strategy along.

是的。引發這件事的是歷史上緊張的轉售市場，我們意識到那裡有一個我們可以填補的空白。但我確實認為這是長期的，出於多種原因，它是結構性的。我提到了轉售房屋的年齡，那棟45年房屋的狀況，我們這裡有很多人坐在這張桌子旁，他們已經退出市場，因為他們找不到質量不錯的房屋在轉售市場上。我們也擴大了我們的地理足跡。我們已經降價了。正如我所提到的，雖然我們正在建立規格，但在我們所有不同的價格點上，我認為，我們從擁有更實惠的豪華社區中獲得的信心，這些社區自然會擁有更多的規格機會，這也幫助我們推動了這項策略。

So I think it's here to stay. I can't tell you that it will be 40% to 50% at all times, but it started because of the tight market. And now we're rolling. We're very confident in it. And we define a spec as foundation forward and we have a strategy in place to put houses on the market at different stages of construction, allowing the client in many cases, as we talked about, to still take advantage of one of the real pillars of Toll, which is choice. We have 35 design studios around the country. The buyers go in there and they pick all their finishes. And for us to still offer that, but do so with a faster delivery because the house is partially built when they buy it. I think it's here to stay.

所以我認為它會繼續存在。我不能告訴你任何時候都會是 40% 到 50%，但它是因為市場緊張而開始的。現在我們正在滾動。我們對此非常有信心。我們將規範定義為基礎，我們制定了一項策略，將處於不同施工階段的房屋投放市場，正如我們所討論的，在許多情況下，客戶仍然可以利用真正的支柱之一收費，這是選擇。我們在全國擁有35個設計工作室。買家走進那裡，挑選所有的飾面。我們仍然可以提供這種服務，但交貨速度更快，因為房子在他們購買時已經部分建成。我認為它會繼續存在。

I think there's been some change in consumer preference. Our homes are really good and attractive and well decorated and well-appointed and well designed for today's lifestyles and interests. The resales that are out there, many of them need work. You have to get somebody to do that work. You have to have the money to pay for that work after buying the house. And so I think the consumer is gravitating to new, as Doug mentioned, and what we offer is pretty attractive.

我認為消費者的偏好發生了一些變化。我們的房屋非常好，很有吸引力，裝飾精美，設備齊全，設計精良，適合當今的生活方式和興趣。那裡的轉售，其中許多都需要工作。你必須找人來做這項工作。買了房子後，你必須有錢來支付這項工作的費用。因此，我認為消費者正在被新事物所吸引，正如道格所提到的那樣，我們提供的產品非常有吸引力。

The cycle times are down a couple of months. There -- the spec business is driving higher IRR. When we open a community now, we may have 5 to 10 spec homes that have already been started. So when you come in to the sales center opening weekend, you don't just have to think a year out for a build-to-order home, but there's some inventory homes that are in various stages.

週期時間縮短了幾個月。在那裡，規格業務正在推動更高的內部報酬率。當我們現在開放一個社區時，我們可能已經有5到10個規格的住宅已經開工。因此，當您在周末進入銷售中心時，您不僅需要考慮一年內按訂單建造的房屋，而且還需要考慮一些處於不同階段的庫存房屋。

We get the revenue quicker that way, too.

這樣我們也能更快獲得收入。

So I think we're confident that this will continue to be a big part of our strategy as we continue to obsess with being America's luxury homebuilder and to focus on the brand. We will not let the spec strategy in any way bring down quality or take away choice or the special sauce of Toll Brothers.

因此，我認為我們有信心，隨著我們繼續致力於成為美國的豪華住宅建築商並專注於品牌，這將繼續成為我們策略的重要組成部分。我們不會讓規格策略以任何方式降低品質或剝奪 Toll Brothers 的選擇或特殊醬料。

Our next question comes from John Lovallo from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first one is, if we look 2015 to 2019, so it's pre-COVID. Absorptions increased, call it, 60% to 65% on average from the first quarter to the second quarter. You guys have talked about better than normal seasonality going on right now, so just curious how you're thinking about that potential step up this year?

第一個是，如果我們回顧 2015 年至 2019 年，現在是新冠疫情之前。從第一季到第二季度，吸收量平均增加了 60% 至 65%。你們已經討論過現在的季節性比正常情況好，所以很好奇你們如何看待今年潛在的進步？

So I mentioned that January had outsized sales to December and November, looking at past trends and February is following normal seasonality that we have seen looking back at historic trends. Our traffic in the last week was the highest week of foot traffic into our model homes since February of '22. Our web traffic is up dramatically. We have great optimism for what's coming this spring with a really good start in January and February. I think that's the best answer I can give.

因此，我提到，從過去的趨勢來看，1 月的銷量超過 12 月和 11 月，而 2 月則遵循我們回顧歷史趨勢時看到的正常季節性。上週我們的樣品租屋者流量是自 22 年 2 月以來客流量最高的一週。我們的網路流量急劇增加。我們對今年春天的情況非常樂觀，一月和二月有一個非常好的開始。我想這是我能給的最好答案。

Okay. No, that's helpful and encouraging. If we look at the first quarter or actually the first -- I guess, the delivery ASP that you guys are talking about slightly north of $1 million here in the coming quarter. And if we think about sort of the full year guide of $940,000 million to $960,000 million, that would imply a pretty good step down. I'm curious -- you guys did talk about mix, is that the largest driver here? Or are we missing something?

好的。不，這是有幫助和鼓勵的。如果我們看看第一季或實際上是第一個季度——我猜，你們所說的下個季度的交付 ASP 略高於 100 萬美元。如果我們考慮 9400 億美元到 9600 億美元的全年指導，這將意味著一個相當不錯的下降。我很好奇——你們確實談論了混合，這是這裡最大的驅動力嗎？或者我們錯過了什麼？

It's all, it's the entire driver. Our strategy from a few years back to come down in price, to pick up bigger market share, is now in place and is coming through in deliveries. So we're celebrating this drop in price because the strategy is working. And so that's it. It's a 100% mix.

就是這樣，就是整個司機。我們幾年前的策略是降低價格，以獲得更大的市場份額，現在已經到位，並且正在交付。因此，我們慶祝價格下降，因為策略正在發揮作用。就是這樣。這是 100% 的混合。

And that mix shift is more South, more Mid-Atlantic, a little bit more affordable luxury and a little bit more age-targeted, age-restricted than the first half of the year.

與今年上半年相比，這種混合轉變更偏向南方，更偏向大西洋中部，更實惠的奢侈品以及更針對年齡的目標和年齡限制。

Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。

Thanks for squeezing me in before the end of the hour. First, I just wanted to circle back on the comments around gross margins, where you said that you think gross margins can be sustainable going forward at 27%, 28%. Obviously, a lot of builders have kind of been working through or in the process of working through maybe a little bit of a reset from slightly higher price land over -- that was purchased, perhaps also some higher development costs over the last couple of years and seeing a little bit of normalization.

謝謝你在一小時結束前把我擠進去。首先，我想回顧一下有關毛利率的評論，您說您認為未來毛利率可以持續保持在 27%、28%。顯然，許多建築商已經在努力或正在努力從價格稍高的土地上進行一些重置——這是購買的，也許在過去幾年裡也有一些更高的開發成本並看到一點正常化。

Your comments would kind of suggest kind of staying at this higher level versus prior years, maybe a little bit of slippage, if you kind of say 27% to 28% and you're still at 28% for fiscal '24. I just want to make sure if we're thinking about that right? And really, what's driving this higher level of gross margin, maybe a little bit of slippage in '25 to the midpoint of the range, perhaps, but what's driving that higher level of gross margin today versus prior years? And could you have any risk of slippage more similar to your peers?

你的評論可能會表明，與前幾年相比，會保持在較高水平，如果你說 27% 到 28%，而 24 財年仍處於 28%，那麼可能會有一點下滑。我只是想確定我們是否正在考慮這個問題，對嗎？事實上，是什麼推動瞭如此高的毛利率水平，也許在 25 年有點滑落到該範圍的中點，但是是什麼推動了今天的毛利率水平與前幾年相比？您是否會像您的同齡人一樣面臨滑倒的風險？

Mike, I think we're in a unique position when it comes to land buying, and I know we're in a unique position when it comes to our underwriting thresholds. 50% of our own land was contracted for before December of 2020. And as we -- our underwriting is fairly simple. And we do a combo score, we call it, between IRR and gross margin. That combo score, depending on the market and the performance of the team and whether the lots are improved and therefore, have less land development risk, whether there's a long entitlement process, and therefore, the deal may be a bit more speculative or expensive to get to the finish line. That ranges from the low to mid-50 combo to 60-plus combo.

麥克，我認為我們在土地購買方面處於獨特的地位，而且我知道我們在承保門檻方面處於獨特的地位。我們自己的土地 50% 是在 2020 年 12 月之前承包的。作為我們，我們的承保相當簡單。我們在 IRR 和毛利率之間進行組合評分，我們稱之為。此組合分數取決於市場和團隊的表現，以及地塊是否得到改善，因此土地開發風險較小，是否有漫長的授權過程，因此交易可能更具投機性或成本更高到達終點線。範圍從低到中 50 組合到 60 以上組合。

And by that, I mean you're adding up IRR plus gross margin, and we see deals regularly. In fact, we require deals regularly to have gross margins north of 25% and IRRs north of 25%, and we're still seeing good deal flow. And we're conservative in our underwriting. We don't build home price appreciation into the model. We have big contingencies on land development costs because we know land development costs are still running away from the industry a bit. And I think the main reason for it, not only do we have great land teams around the country who are incredibly hard working and diligent, but we generally, at the corner of Main and Main, where we build, do not compete with the large publics and privates that are well capitalized and are accepting significantly lower returns to grow their companies.

我的意思是，你將內部報酬率加上毛利率相加，我們會定期看到交易。事實上，我們定期要求交易的毛利率超過 25%，內部收益率超過 25%，而且我們仍然看到良好的交易流量。我們在核保方面持保守態度。我們沒有將房價升值納入模型中。我們在土地開發成本方面有很大的突發事件，因為我們知道土地開發成本仍然有點遠離產業。我認為主要原因是，我們不僅在全國各地擁有出色的土地團隊，他們工作非常勤奮，而且我們通常在我們建造的主街和主街的拐角處，不會與大型企業競爭。資本充足且接受低得多的回報來發展公司的公共和私人公司。

We compete at our price point in our locations with small local and regional builders, who have lost their banking relationships with the regional banks who are undercapitalized, who cannot write the big check and we have an easier time finding the land. And that's just proven out by the 20 to 25 land deals I get every Sunday night that I still review that have good, solid returns. That's what gives us the confidence.

我們在我們的地點與小型當地和區域建築商競爭，這些建築商已經失去了與資本不足的區域銀行的銀行關係，這些銀行無法開出大額支票，而我們更容易找到土地。我每週日晚上收到的 20 至 25 份土地交易就證明了這一點，我仍然會審查這些交易，這些交易具有良好、穩定的回報。這就是給我們信心的原因。

We have 70,000 lots. So maybe we don't have to be as aggressive in the next lot as some others might have to.

我們有 70,000 塊地。因此，也許我們不必在接下來的批次中像其他一些人那樣積極進取。

And remember, there's $150,000 of upgrades being put in these houses by our clients, and that -- those upgrades are highly accretive to our company's gross margin. So we're driving, now that goes in the underwriting. Of course, as we buy land, we know we're going to sell those upgrades. But that is driving an added margin because choice deserves an added margin. It's more difficult. It takes longer, more can go wrong. So we expect and we deserve that higher margin.

請記住，我們的客戶對這些房屋進行了 150,000 美元的升級，這些升級極大地增加了我們公司的毛利率。所以我們正在開車，現在已經進入核保階段。當然，當我們購買土地時，我們知道我們將出售這些升級設施。但這正在推動利潤的增加，因為選擇值得增加利潤。更難了。需要的時間更長，出錯的可能性也更大。因此，我們期望並且我們應該獲得更高的利潤。

Right. And I think you've said before that the combo IRR and gross margin that you're looking for has increased roughly 10 points over the last few years. Maybe, Marty, you can just touch on that as well.

正確的。我想您之前曾說過，您所尋求的 IRR 和毛利率組合在過去幾年中增加了大約 10 個百分點。也許，馬蒂，你也可以談談這一點。

But I wanted to -- the second question, just going back to the ASP question, you kind of kept the $940,000 to $960,000 for the full year. you're doing $1 million in the first half that would suggest something around low 9s in the back half. And I just want to kind of think -- make sure we're thinking about it correctly without giving guidance for 2025. But that low 9s, call it, maybe $920,000, maybe a little adjusted because of higher revenues. If that's the right kind of starting point that we should be thinking of for fiscal '25.

但我想——第二個問題，回到 ASP 問題，你可以保留全年 940,000 到 960,000 美元。你在上半場賺了 100 萬美元，這表明後半場的收入大約在 9 左右。我只是想想一想，確保我們在不給出 2025 年指導的情況下正確思考它。但是那個低 9，稱之為，也許 920,000 美元，可能因為收入增加而稍微調整一下。如果這是我們應該為 25 財年考慮的正確起點。

Yes. As I mentioned, I think our strategy to move into affordable luxury is now fully in place. So I think the drop you're seeing in the second half of '24 to the low 9s is reflective of the future business at Toll.

是的。正如我所提到的，我認為我們進軍平價奢侈品的策略現在已完全到位。因此，我認為您在 2024 年下半年看到的下降到 9 的低點反映了 Toll 未來的業務。

Our final question is from Buck Horne from Raymond James.

我們的最後一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的巴克霍恩。

I'll be brief. I appreciate the time. Just wondering, we have seen a little bit of a maybe unusual seasonal uptick in resale inventory in a couple of markets, particularly Southwest Florida and Texas. And just curious if you could speak to those regions in particular, if you think some of the addition to resale inventory there is having any noticeable impact on the business through the early part of spring selling?

我會簡短地說。我很感激時間。只是想知道，我們在幾個市場（尤其是佛羅裡達州西南部和德克薩斯州）的轉售庫存出現了一些可能不尋常的季節性上升。只是好奇您是否可以特別談談這些地區，您是否認為轉售庫存的增加會對春季銷售初期的業務產生任何明顯影響？

Texas has been terrific. We're in 4 markets in Texas, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, just terrific. We've been thrilled with the business there. There's a lot of new homes in Texas. There's a lot of competition. We have a great brand there. We've been in the state a long time. And I'm very optimistic about our future there. Land is relatively easy to find. The risk is less because there are land developers that feed us lots, which makes the business easier. We can have just-in-time lots provided to us, which, of course, can drive the IRR. I wouldn't read too much into Southwest Florida. We're very small there. It's one of our smaller markets in the state. But Florida, we call Florida West, which is really Naples up through Fort Myers. And that is having a really good February.

德克薩斯州非常棒。我們在德州、奧斯汀、聖安東尼奧、達拉斯、休士頓的 4 個市場開展業務，非常棒。我們對那裡的業務感到非常興奮。德州有很多新房。有很多競爭。我們在那裡有一個偉大的品牌。我們已經處於這個狀態很久了。我對我們在那裡的未來非常樂觀。土地相對容易找到。風險較小，因為有土地開發商為我們提供大量資金，這使生意更容易。我們可以及時獲得批次，當然可以提高內部報酬率。我不會對佛羅裡達州西南部了解太多。我們在那裡很小。這是我們在州內較小的市場之一。但是佛羅裡達，我們稱之為佛羅裡達西，實際上是那不勒斯到邁爾斯堡。這是一個非常美好的二月。

In fact, Florida East, which we call Fort Lauderdale up through Stuart, is also having a really good February. As the snowfalls in the North and the Midwest, the planes head South, and we're taking advantage of that.

事實上，佛羅裡達州東部（我們通過斯圖爾特稱為勞德代爾堡）也度過了一個非常美好的二月。當北部和中西部降雪時，飛機向南飛行，我們正在利用這一點。

That's fantastic. All my other questions are answered. So congrats on great quarter, guys.

這太妙了。我所有的其他問題都得到了解答。夥計們，恭喜這個季度的出色表現。

Thanks very much. I think is that a wrap or Jamie, how are we doing?

非常感謝。我想是包裝還是傑米，我們怎麼樣？

Yes, sir, that will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back over to you for any closing remarks.

是的，先生，今天的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給您，讓您發表結束語。

Jamie, thanks. You've been great. Thanks, everyone, for your interest and support. As always, great questions. We're always here offline to answer any follow-ups you may have. And thanks again. Take care.

傑米，謝謝。你已經很棒了。謝謝大家的關注與支持。一如既往，很好的問題。我們始終在線下回答您的任何後續問題。再次感謝。小心。

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。