托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers third-quarter fiscal year 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2024 財年第三季電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給執行長道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續。

Thank you, Dave. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Wendy Marlette, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP, Treasurer, and our Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，戴夫。早安.歡迎並感謝您加入我們。今天和我在一起的有財務長馬蒂康納 (Marty Connor)；羅布‧帕拉胡斯 (Rob Parahus)，總裁兼營運長；溫蒂‧馬萊特，首席行銷長；資深副總裁、財務主管兼投資者關係主管 Gregg Ziegler。

As usual, I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation, and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. Please read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website to better understand the risks associated with our forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的供應、通貨膨脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設這可能會嚴重影響未來的結果。請閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告和我們網站上關於前瞻性資訊的聲明，以更好地了解與我們的前瞻性聲明相關的風險。

We had another terrific quarter and are very pleased with our fiscal third-quarter results. We delivered 2,814 homes at an average price of $968,000, generating record third-quarter home sale revenues of $2.72 billion.

我們又度過了一個出色的季度，並對第三季度的財務表現感到非常滿意。我們以 968,000 美元的平均價格交付了 2,814 套房屋，創造了創紀錄的第三季房屋銷售收入 27.2 億美元。

Our adjusted gross margin of 28.8% exceeded guidance by 110 basis points, primarily due to greater efficiencies in our home building operations as well as favorable mix. Our SG&A expense was 9.0% of home sale revenues or 20 basis points better than guidance. Outperformance in both the top line and in our margin drove earnings of $3.60 per diluted share, keeping us on track to deliver another great year for Toll Brothers.

我們的調整後毛利率為 28.8%，超出指導價值 110 個基點，這主要是由於我們的住宅建築業務效率提高以及有利的組合。我們的 SG&A 支出佔房屋銷售收入的 9.0%，比指導值高 20 個基點。營收和利潤率均表現出色，攤薄後每股收益達到 3.60 美元，使我們有望為 Toll Brothers 帶來另一個輝煌的一年。

In the third quarter, we signed 2,490 net contracts for $2.4 billion, up approximately 11% in both units and dollars compared to last year's third quarter. On a per-community basis, we sold at a pace of 2.1 homes per month, down slightly versus the 2.2 pace we sold in last year's third quarter.

第三季度，我們簽署了 2,490 份淨合同，價值 24 億美元，與去年第三季度相比，無論數量還是金額均增長了約 11%。以每個社區計算，我們每月銷售 2.1 套房屋，略低於去年第三季 2.2 套的銷售速度。

Demand in our third quarter was uneven. May started out strong, but slowed into and through June. July was the strongest month in the quarter, especially in the latter half of the month. We have seen this strength continue into the first three weeks of August.

第三季的需求不平衡。 5 月開始強勁，但進入 6 月後放緩。 7 月是本季表現最強勁的月份，尤其是後半月。我們看到這種強勢持續到八月的前三週。

With mortgage rates at their lowest point in a year and trending lower, favorable demographics, and continued imbalance in the supply and demand of homes for sale, we are optimistic that demand for new homes will remain solid through the end of fiscal '24 and into 2025.

由於抵押貸款利率處於一年中的最低點且呈下降趨勢，人口結構有利，待售房屋供需持續失衡，我們樂觀地認為，到 2024 財年末和 2019 年以來，新房需求將保持強勁。

We are encouraged by demand trends we are seeing across the country and also across our buyer segments. Demand where we -- excuse me -- markets where we saw particular strength in the quarter included New Jersey, Pennsylvania, metro DC, South Carolina, Atlanta, Boise, Las Vegas, and all of California.

我們對全國各地以及我們的買家群體的需求趨勢感到鼓舞。對不起，本季需求特別強勁的市場包括新澤西州、賓州、華盛頓特區、南卡羅來納州、亞特蘭大、博伊西、拉斯維加斯和整個加州。

Price adjustments in the quarter were community and market dependent. We raised prices in some communities and lowered it in others. Overall, pricing was flat compared to the second quarter, and incentives continued to run approximately 5.5% of our average sales price.

本季的價格調整取決於社區和市場。我們提高了一些社區的價格，並降低了其他社區的價格。總體而言，定價與第二季持平，激勵措施繼續占我們平均銷售價格的 5.5% 左右。

As I noted earlier, we are optimistic that market conditions will remain positive for home builders into the foreseeable future. The underlying drivers of demand remain firmly in place, including favorable demographics driven by millennials, many of whom are buying their first home later in life when they have higher income and accumulated wealth. Older millennials are now hitting their 40s, which should provide a tailwind for our luxury move-up business over the next decade.

正如我之前指出的，我們樂觀地認為，在可預見的未來，市場狀況對房屋建築商來說仍將保持樂觀。需求的潛在驅動因素仍然牢固存在，包括千禧世代推動的有利人口結構，他們中的許多人在晚年收入更高且積累了財富時購買了他們的第一套房子。年長的千禧世代現在已年過 40 多歲，這將為我們未來十年的奢侈品升級業務提供動力。

In addition, baby boomers are moving into new homes as they retire and adjust their lifestyles. There also continues to be an underbuilt and aging stock of homes for sale, with the undersupply exacerbated by the lock-in effect of higher rates, which is keeping resale inventory at historically low levels.

此外，嬰兒潮世代隨著退休和調整生活方式而搬進新家。待售房屋的建設不足和老化庫存仍然存在，而較高利率的鎖定效應加劇了供應不足，這使轉售庫存保持在歷史低水平。

But even as interest rates move lower, we believe the supply of homes will remain challenged due to nearly 15 years of underproduction. Lower rates alone will not fully address the chronic undersupply of housing. The past several years have proven how impactful these fundamentals are, with demand for new homes remaining solid in the face of a sharp rise in mortgage rates and a prolonged period in which rates have remained elevated.

但即使利率下降，我們認為由於近 15 年的生產不足，房屋供應仍將面臨挑戰。僅靠較低的利率並不能完全解決長期住房供應不足的問題。過去幾年已經證明了這些基本面的影響有多大，儘管抵押貸款利率急劇上升，而且利率長期保持在高位，但對新房的需求仍然強勁。

As a large, well-capitalized home builder, we have benefited from and performed very well in this environment, with sales up 25% year to date. We would clearly welcome lower rates and are excited by the prospect of a normalizing housing market.

作為一家資本雄厚的大型住宅建築商，我們從這種環境中受益並表現得非常好，今年迄今為止銷售額增長了 25%。我們顯然歡迎較低的利率，並對房地產市場正常化的前景感到興奮。

Our strategy of widening our geographies and price points to include more affordable homes and increasing our supply of spec homes has helped us meet demand while becoming a more efficient home builder. As we have expanded and come down in price, we now have the widest variety of product and the widest range of price of any of the builders, which presents us with a great opportunity to grow our core home building business in our 60 markets across the country.

我們擴大地理和價格點以納入更多經濟適用房並增加規格住宅供應的策略幫助我們滿足需求，同時成為更有效率的住宅建築商。隨著我們的擴張和價格的下降，我們現在擁有所有建築商中最廣泛的產品種類和最廣泛的價格範圍，這為我們提供了在全球60 個市場發展我們的核心住宅建築業務的絕佳機會。

Our spec homes represented approximately 54% of orders and 49% of deliveries in the third quarter. We continue to target about 50% of our business as spec, with continued strong demand from buyers who are looking for quicker move-ins.

第三季度，我們的規格住宅約佔訂單量的 54% 和交付量的 49%。我們繼續以約 50% 的業務為目標，尋求更快入住的買家持續強勁的需求。

As a reminder, we define a spec as any home without a buyer that has a foundation port. We sell our specs at various stages of construction, which provides many of our buyers the opportunity to personalize their homes at one of our 40 design studios nationwide. This offers our spec buyers a degree of choice, which is a key pillar in the Toll Brothers buying experience, while providing us with a faster and more efficient construction schedule.

提醒一下，我們將規格定義為任何沒有買家且擁有基礎連接埠的房屋。我們在施工的各個階段出售我們的規格，這為我們的許多買家提供了在我們全國 40 個設計工作室之一個性化他們的房屋的機會。這為我們的規格買家提供了一定程度的選擇，這是 Toll Brothers 購買體驗的關鍵支柱，同時為我們提供了更快、更有效率的施工進度。

At third quarter-end, our backlog stood at $7.1 billion and 6,769 homes. Our cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog was 2.4% in the third quarter, down from 2.8% in our second quarter and consistent with our long-term average of 2.3%. Our industry-low cancellation rate is due to the significant upfront down payments our buyers make, as well as the emotional attachment they form as they personalize their homes with us.

截至第三季末，我們的積壓訂單金額為 71 億美元，共有 6,769 套房屋。第三季我們的取消率佔積壓訂單的百分比為 2.4%，低於第二季的 2.8%，與我們 2.3% 的長期平均值一致。我們行業內較低的取消率是由於買家支付了大量的預付款，以及他們在與我們一起個性化房屋時形成的情感依戀。

Our buyers also tend to be more affluent. Approximately 28% of our buyers paid all cash in the third quarter, consistent with our second quarter and significantly above our long-term average of approximately 20%. The loan-to-value ratio for buyers who took a mortgage was approximately 69%. So for the 72% of our buyers who took a mortgage, on average, they put down 31%. These metrics highlight the financial strength and affluence of our entire customer base.

我們的買家也往往更富裕。大約 28% 的買家在第三季支付了全部現金，與第二季一致，並且顯著高於我們約 20% 的長期平均值。抵押貸款買家的貸款成數約為 69%。因此，對於 72% 的抵押貸款買家來說，他們平均首付為 31%。這些指標凸顯了我們整個客戶群的財務實力和富裕程度。

We continue to see modest improvement in our construction cycle times consistent with our focus on product and process optimization and our increase in faster-turned spec homes. We remain hyper-focused on continuing to improve our construction times as we move forward, which should further benefit our already strong cash flows.

我們繼續看到施工週期時間略有改善，這與我們對產品和流程優化的關注以及更快的規格住宅的增加是一致的。隨著我們的前進，我們仍然高度關注繼續改善我們的施工時間，這應該進一步有利於我們本已強勁的現金流。

We are on target to reach our goal of operating from 410 communities by fiscal year-end, which would represent 11% growth compared to the 370 communities we are operating from at the start of the year. We plan to continue growing community count next year, and we have sufficient land under control to do it.

我們的目標是到財年末實現在 410 個社區開展業務的目標，這比我們年初營運的 370 個社區增長 11%。我們計劃明年繼續增加社區數量，並且我們有足夠的土地來實現這一目標。

At quarter-end, we owned or controlled 72,700 lots, half of which were controlled and the other half owned. Excluding the 6,769 lots in our backlog, our controlled land represents 55% of our lots. This land position provides us with sufficient lots needed for growth in fiscal 2025 and beyond, and allows us to continue to be selective, disciplined, and focused on efficiency when we assess new land opportunities.

截至季末，我們擁有或控制 72,700 塊土地，其中一半是控制的，另一半是擁有的。除去我們積壓的 6,769 塊地塊，我們控制的土地占我們地塊的 55%。這個土地位置為我們提供了 2025 財年及以後增長所需的足夠土地，並使我們在評估新土地機會時能夠繼續精挑細選、遵守紀律並注重效率。

Our underwriting standards for new land continues to incorporate stringent thresholds for both margins and returns. And we continue to seek out land acquisition and development opportunities that allow us to be more capital efficient, including through increased use of option arrangements, land banks, joint ventures, and similar structures that allow us to defer payments and lot takedowns.

我們對新土地的承保標準繼續納入嚴格的利潤和回報門檻。我們繼續尋找土地收購和開發機會，使我們能夠提高資本效率，包括透過更多地使用選擇權安排、土地銀行、合資企業和類似結構，使我們能夠推遲付款和拆除地塊。

This focus on capital efficiency and returns extends beyond our land and other operations. It also includes our efforts to more programmatically return capital to our stockholders. Since the start of our third quarter, we've repurchased $246 million of our common stock, bringing our year-to-date repurchases to $427 million at an average price of approximately $119 per share. We also paid over $70 million in dividends year to date.

對資本效率和回報的關注超出了我們的土地和其他業務範圍。它還包括我們以更有計劃的方式向股東返還資本的努力。自第三季初以來，我們已回購了價值 2.46 億美元的普通股，使年初至今的回購額達到 4.27 億美元，平均價格約為每股 119 美元。年初至今，我們還支付了超過 7,000 萬美元的股息。

So far this year, we've repurchased approximately 3% of our year-end diluted share count. And since 2016, we've bought back approximately one-half of the company. Given our outstanding year-to-date financial performance, including strong operating cash flows, we are raising our buyback expectations for the full year from $500 million to $600 million.

今年到目前為止，我們已經回購了約 3% 的年末稀釋後股票數量。自 2016 年以來，我們已經回購了該公司大約一半的股份。鑑於我們今年迄今出色的財務業績，包括強勁的營運現金流，我們將全年回購預期從 5 億美元提高到 6 億美元。

Dividends and buybacks will continue to be an important part of our capital allocation strategy and a key factor in maintaining an attractive return on equity. We now expect our return on beginning equity to be approximately 22.5% this year. This will be the third year in a row that we generate on ROE over 20%.

股利和回購將繼續成為我們資本配置策略的重要組成部分，也是維持有吸引力的股本回報率的關鍵因素。我們現在預計今年的期初股本回報率約為 22.5%。這將是我們的 ROE 連續第三年超過 20%。

With that, I will turn it over to Marty.

這樣，我就把它交給馬蒂了。

Thanks, Doug. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for being with us. It was a great quarter. We earned $504 million before taxes and $375 million after, or $3.60 of earnings per diluted share, well above the earnings we guided to last quarter.

謝謝，道格。大家早安。感謝您與我們同在。這是一個很棒的季度。我們的稅前利潤為 5.04 億美元，稅後利潤為 3.75 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 3.60 美元，遠高於我們上季度的預期收益。

Home sale revenues were $2.72 billion in the quarter, a third-quarter record and an increase of 2% compared to one year ago. We delivered 2,814 homes in the quarter, up 11.5% year over year. This unit growth is a direct outcome of our strategies of broadening our price points and increasing our supply of spec homes.

該季度房屋銷售收入為 27.2 億美元，創第三季紀錄，與一年前相比成長 2%。本季我們交付了 2,814 套房屋，年增 11.5%。這一單位成長是我們擴大價格點和增加規格住宅供應策略的直接結果。

Based on our third-quarter results and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we are raising our full-year deliveries guidance. We now expect to deliver between 10,650 and 10,750 homes, an increase of 100 homes at the midpoint of our previous guidance.

根據我們第三季的業績和對第四季的預期，我們正在提高全年交付指引。我們現在預計交付 10,650 至 10,750 套房屋，比我們之前指導的中位數增加 100 套。

We are also increasing our guidance for full-year average delivered price by $10,000 to $975,000. This translates to a home building revenue projection of between $10.4 billion and $10.5 billion for the full year, or over $200 million of additional revenue compared to the midpoint of our previous guidance.

我們還將全年平均交付價格指導值提高了 10,000 美元，達到 975,000 美元。這意味著全年住宅建築收入預計將在 104 億美元至 105 億美元之間，或與我們先前指導的中位數相比增加超過 2 億美元的收入。

We signed 2,490 net contracts in the third quarter for $2.4 billion, up approximately 11% in dollars and units. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $967,000, which was about flat compared to both the third quarter of last year and the second quarter of this year.

第三季度，我們簽署了 2,490 份淨合同，價值 24 億美元，按美元和單位計算增長約 11%。本季簽訂的合約平均價格約為96.7萬美元，與去年第三季和今年第二季相比基本持平。

Our third quarter adjusted gross margin was 28.8%, compared to 29.3% in the third quarter of 2023. And this was 110 basis points better than we had projected. The outperformance to guide was due primarily to greater efficiency in our home building operations as well as favorable mix.

我們第三季調整後的毛利率為 28.8%，而 2023 年第三季為 29.3%。業績優於指導主要是由於我們的住宅建築運營效率提高以及有利的組合。

With the outperformance in our third quarter, we are raising our full-year adjusted gross margin guidance from 28.0% to 28.3%. We are now projecting a fourth quarter adjusted gross margin of 27.5%, a 10-basis-point increase compared to our previous implied guidance.

鑑於第三季的優異表現，我們將全年調整後毛利率指引從 28.0% 提高至 28.3%。我們目前預期第四季調整後毛利率為 27.5%，比我們先前隱含的指引增加 10 個基點。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 9.0% in the third quarter compared to 8.6% in the third quarter of last year. And this was 20 basis points better than we had projected for this quarter. Year over year, we modestly reduced G&A expenses in terms of total dollars. But this reduction was offset by higher selling expenses, due in part to increased community openings.

第三季銷售、管理及行政費用佔營收的百分比為 9.0%，去年第三季為 8.6%。這比我們本季的預期高出 20 個基點。與去年同期相比，我們小幅減少了總管理費用（以美元計）。但這項減少被較高的銷售費用所抵消，部分原因是社區空缺增加。

As we've pointed out before, we've been very focused on becoming more efficient, and we are seeing the benefits of that efficiency continue to flow through our results. For the fourth quarter, we expect SG&A expense to be 8.6% of home sales revenues. And for the full year, we now expect it to be 9.4%. This represents a 20-basis-point improvement over our previous guidance.

正如我們之前指出的，我們一直非常注重提高效率，並且我們看到這種效率的好處繼續體現在我們的成果中。對於第四季度，我們預計 SG&A 費用將佔房屋銷售收入的 8.6%。對於全年，我們現在預計為 9.4%。這比我們之前的指導提高了 20 個基點。

Third-quarter joint venture, land sales, and other income was $1 million, which was consistent with our breakeven guidance. We continue to expect our full-year joint venture, land sales, and other income to be approximately $260 million, implying approximately $47 million in the fourth quarter.

第三季合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 100 萬美元，與我們的盈虧平衡指引一致。我們仍然預計全年合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入約為 2.6 億美元，這意味著第四季度約為 4,700 萬美元。

Our tax rate in the quarter was 25.6%. We expect our fourth-quarter tax rate to be 26%, which would bring the full-year rate to approximately 25.4%. We expect interest and cost of sales to be approximately 1.3% in the fourth quarter and for the full year as we continue to benefit from our reduced leverage.

我們本季的稅率為 25.6%。我們預計第四季稅率為 26%，這將使全年稅率達到約 25.4%。我們預計第四季和全年的利息和銷售成本約為 1.3%，因為我們將繼續受益於槓桿率的降低。

As Doug mentioned, we are maintaining our community account guidance of approximately 410 communities, open for sale by fiscal year-end. This would represent approximately 11% growth from the 370 communities we began the year with. We plan to continue growing community account in fiscal year 2025 and have the land to do it.

正如 Doug 所提到的，我們正在維持約 410 個社區的社區帳戶指導，並在財政年度結束時開放出售。這意味著我們年初的 370 個社區成長了約 11%。我們計劃在 2025 財年繼續擴大社區帳戶，並擁有足夠的土地來實現這一目標。

Turning to the balance sheet, we finished the quarter with a net-debt-to-capital ratio of 19.6%, $893 million in cash and equivalents, and $1.8 billion available under our $1.96 billion revolving bank credit facility. We have no significant bank or senior debt maturities until November 2025.

談到資產負債表，本季結束時，我們的淨債務與資本比率為 19.6%，現金和等價物為 8.93 億美元，19.6 億美元的循環銀行信貸額度下有 18 億美元可用。在 2025 年 11 月之前，我們沒有重大銀行或優先債務到期。

All of this provides us with ample flexibility to both grow our business and return capital to stockholders as we continue to focus on generating attractive returns. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately $104.75 million for the full year and $102.5 million for the fourth quarter. As Doug noted, we've increased our share repurchase guidance to approximately $600 million of repurchases this year, implying approximately $175 million of buybacks in the fourth quarter.

所有這些都為我們提供了足夠的靈活性，以發展我們的業務並向股東返還資本，同時我們繼續專注於創造有吸引力的回報。我們的加權平均股票數量預計全年約為 1.0475 億美元，第四季約為 1.025 億美元。正如 Doug 指出的那樣，我們已將今年的股票回購指引提高至約 6 億美元的回購規模，這意味著第四季的回購規模約為 1.75 億美元。

Putting this all together, we now expect to earn between $14.50 and $14.75 per diluted share in fiscal 2024. We expect to achieve a full-year return on beginning equity of approximately 22.5%, and we expect our book value at year-end to be over $76.50. This would cap off another great year for Toll Brothers.

綜上所述，我們現在預計 2024 財年稀釋後每股收益為 14.50 美元至 14.75 美元。 我們預計全年期初股本回報率約為 22.5%，我們預計年底帳面價值為超過 76.50 美元。這將為托爾兄弟公司又一個偉大的一年畫下圓滿的句點。

Now let me turn it back to Doug.

現在讓我把它轉回給道格。

Thank you, Marty. Before I open it up for questions, I'd like to recognize the hard work of all of our Toll employees. It is their passion for our business, dedication to our luxury brand, and commitment to our customers that will ensure our continued success.

謝謝你，馬蒂。在開始提問之前，我想對所有拓領員工的辛勤工作表示認可。他們對我們業務的熱情、對我們奢侈品牌的奉獻以及對客戶的承諾將確保我們持續成功。

Dave, let's open it up for questions.

戴夫，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Yeah. Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate all the color so far, and good job in the quarter. I wanted to ask you about profitability. I was intrigued by your comment about greater efficiency in the home building operations.

是的。非常感謝，夥計們。欣賞迄今為止的所有顏色，以及本季度的出色工作。我想問你關於獲利能力的問題。我對您關於提高住宅建築營運效率的評論很感興趣。

I wanted to get a sense of -- if you could elaborate there. That seems to imply that there's a degree of sustainability to the strength that we're seeing in your margins. And so -- I know you haven't given guidance here for 2025, but it would be helpful for, I think, us to hear you comment on the, call it, the 17.5% operating margin you're generating this year.

我想了解一下——如果你能詳細說明一下的話。這似乎意味著我們在你們的利潤中看到的實力有一定程度的可持續性。因此，我知道您尚未給出 2025 年的指導，但我認為，聽到您對今年實現的 17.5% 營業利潤率的評論會對我們有所幫助。

How sustainable do you think that is generally? Is that a number that you think is inflated by any particular variables? Or is that a level that you sort of -- as you look forward across your business over the next several years, is that a level that you sort of feel is a reasonable level to use as kind of a base?

您認為這總體上有多可持續？您認為這個數字是否因任何特定變數而被誇大？或者，當您展望未來幾年的業務時，您是否認為這個水平是可以用作基礎的合理水平？

Thanks, Steve. Great question. The quick answer is, yes, we believe that operating margin you referenced is sustainable.

謝謝，史蒂夫。很好的問題。簡單的答案是，是的，我們相信您提到的營業利潤率是可持續的。

We are targeting long term with this new business model of a very wide price point, a very wide geography, about 50% specs, more and more affordable luxury communities, a longer-term gross margin in the 27% to 28% range. And as we become more efficient on the SG&A line, which you've seen over the last couple of years, we think that operating margin long term is definitely sustainable.

我們的目標是長期利用這種新的商業模式，它具有非常廣泛的價格點、非常廣泛的地域、大約50% 的規格、越來越多的負擔得起的豪華社區、長期毛利率在27%到28% 的範圍內。隨著我們在銷售、管理及行政費用方面變得更加高效，正如您在過去幾年中看到的那樣，我們認為長期營運利潤率肯定是可持續的。

Well, that's super clear. So appreciate that. And that's obviously very encouraging. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your spec model. What was the actual number of specs, both finished and total specs, that you had in the quarter? And then I had a follow-up regarding about that level.

嗯，這非常清楚。所以很感激。這顯然非常令人鼓舞。我想知道您是否可以多談談您的規格型號。您在本季擁有的實際規格數量（成品規格和總規格）是多少？然後我對這個級別進行了跟進。

At the end of the quarter, Steve, we had around 3,400 specs. Around 750 of those were at [CO] or beyond or 1.8 per community.

Steve，到本季末，我們有大約 3,400 個規格。其中約 750 人處於 [CO] 或以上，即每個社區 1.8 人。

That's interesting. Okay, so you had yet about 8.5 per community total, but finished, as you said, below two. Those levels of spec, are those numbers per community what we can also expect going forward? Or do you see this changing, growing perhaps, as we go forward?

那很有意思。好的，每個社區的總數約為 8.5，但正如您所說，最終結果低於 2。這些規格水平，每個社區的這些數字是我們未來也可以預期的嗎？或者，隨著我們的前進，您是否認為這種情況會發生變化，甚至可能會增長？

Stephen, we're starting a spec essentially for every home we sell. So the starts in specs -- starts include one BTO and one spec, kind of 50/50.

史蒂芬，我們正在為我們出售的每棟房屋制定一個規格。因此，規格的起始值 - 起始值包括一項 BTO 和一項規格，有點 50/50。

BTO is build-to-order.

BTO 是按訂單生產的。

Yeah. And I think we've hit a bit of --

是的。我認為我們已經達到了一些目標——

Not Bachman-Turner Overdrive, for the older people on the call.

對於通話中的老人來說，不是 Bachman-Turner Overdrive。

Well, we are taking care of business here, Doug. (laughter) So I think we've hit a bit of an equilibrium point here on our -- up to 50% spec strategy. Now, that'll vary a little bit in terms of settlements or sales quarter to quarter. But strategically, we've kind of hit our equilibrium point here.

好吧，我們正在處理這裡的事情，道格。 （笑聲）所以我認為我們已經達到了一個平衡點——高達 50% 的規格策略。現在，每個季度的結算或銷售都會略有不同。但從戰略上講，我們已經達到了平衡點。

And it's important -- I know we talked -- I know, Steve, we talked about it before, as you know. But we -- choice at Toll Brothers is still alive and well. It's still very important, not just on the build-to-order business. But we do hope that at least half of the spec buyers are buying early enough that they have enough time to pick some level of finishes.

這很重要——我知道我們談過——我知道，史蒂夫，我們之前談過這個問題，你也知道。但我們——Toll Brothers 的選擇仍然存在且良好。它仍然非常重要，不僅僅是在按訂單生產業務上。但我們確實希望至少有一半的規格買家能夠儘早購買，以便他們有足夠的時間來選擇某種程度的飾面。

If you buy it very early, you can hit that design studio and truly customize the inside of your home. If you buy it a little bit later, you have some opportunity for flooring, for kitchen cabinets, for countertops. And then, of course, there are some, as we described, that get to the end, can be delivered quickly for that buyer that wants a faster move-in.

如果你很早就購買了，你可以去那個設計工作室，真正客製化你家的內部。如果你晚一點購買，你就有機會做地板、廚櫃、檯面。當然，正如我們所描述的，有一些可以快速交付給想要更快入住的買家。

So we do define the spec as a foundation in the ground without a buyer. And we market accordingly so that choice is still a big part of that business model. That also drives a little bit more margin because the upgrades to the design studio tend to be accretive to the company margin.

因此，我們確實將規範定義為沒有買家的基礎。我們進行相應的行銷，因此選擇仍然是該商業模式的重要組成部分。這也會帶來更多的利潤，因為設計工作室的升級往往會增加公司的利潤。

Yeah, absolutely. And the level of finished specs here per community is very encouraging. I would say below two per community, that's not at all an unusually high number. So it's very clear that your process is working. So great, well, appreciate all the color. Thanks very much.

是的，絕對是。每個社區的成品規格水平非常令人鼓舞。我想說每個社區低於兩個，這根本不是一個異常高的數字。所以很明顯你的流程正在發揮作用。太棒了，欣賞所有的顏色。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions as well. Maybe just following up on -- hey, hi, how are you? Maybe just following up on Steve's question. Your backlog has continued to kind of get worked down over the past few years. I mean, how confident are you that improved cycle times in this increased spec level can continue to drive delivery growth as we move into 2025?

早安，夥計們。也感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是跟進——嘿，嗨，你好嗎？也許只是跟進史蒂夫的問題。在過去的幾年裡，您的積壓工作持續減少。我的意思是，隨著我們進入 2025 年，您對提高規格水平下的周期時間的改善能夠繼續推動交付增長有多大信心？

We're very confident. We're doing it right now. As we've talked about it, we can keep this spec at about 50/50. Those houses are being built faster. We're able to deliver them quicker. The conversion rate on our backlog has come down and will continue to come down as this -- excuse me -- will continue to go up. My apologies.

我們非常有信心。我們現在正在做。正如我們所討論的，我們可以將此規格保持在 50/50 左右。這些房子的建造速度更快。我們能夠更快地交付它們。我們積壓訂單的轉換率已經下降，並將繼續下降，因為這個——對不起——將繼續上升。我很抱歉。

We will turn houses faster. You know what I meant. And as the spec business continues to mature, we get better at it. We turn these houses faster. You're going to see an improvement in that conversion.

我們會更快翻房子。你知道我的意思。隨著規格業務的不斷成熟，我們在這方面做得越來越好。我們更快地翻修這些房子。您將會看到轉換率有所提高。

Makes sense. And then moving on to the fourth-quarter gross margin, what would drive the expected 140-basis-point sequential decline from the third quarter? I mean, is this the reverse of the positive mix impact in the third quarter? And what specifically was that mix impact? Was it geographic? Was it product or spec versus BTO? Thank you.

有道理。那麼第四季的毛利率將比第三季預期下降 140 個基點？我的意思是，這是否與第三季的正面組合影響相反？這種混合影響具體是什麼？是地理原因嗎？是產品還是規格與 BTO 的比較？謝謝。

Sure. So let's remember we raised guidance for Q4 gross margin. Yes, when you compare it to the blowout gross margin of Q3, the gap there is bigger.

當然。因此，請記住我們提高了第四季毛利率的指引。是的，與第三季井噴式的毛利率相比，差距更大。

Q3, as we mentioned, was 110 basis points better than guide because of mix. We had more high-margin homes delivering in the Pacific and the South. And we had less spec homes delivering than we had anticipated. That reverses a bit in the fourth quarter, where we'll have less high-margin homes delivering from the South and the Pacific.

正如我們所提到的，由於混合因素，第三季比指導值高 110 個基點。我們在太平洋和南部地區交付了更多高利潤房屋。我們交付的規格房屋比我們預期的要少。這種情況在第四季度出現了一些逆轉，來自南方和太平洋地區的高利潤房屋交付量將會減少。

And by the way, the entire South and Pacific is not necessarily high margin. It is certain communities within the South and the Pacific that have this higher margin, where we had more of those delivered Q3 and less of those in Q4. And we will have about 60% of our deliveries in the fourth quarter be spec.

順便說一句，整個南太平洋地區的利潤率並不一定很高。南太平洋地區的某些社區的利潤率較高，第三季交付的數量較多，第四季度交付的數量較少。第四季我們交付的產品中大約有 60% 是符合規格的。

So with our business running from -- we now have homes from the [mid-$300,000s] to over $5 million. We have gross margins that have a very large range. We have a few communities with 10% gross margin, and we have communities with 50% gross margin.

因此，隨著我們業務的開展，我們現在擁有的房屋價格從[30萬美元左右]到超過500萬美元不等。我們的毛利率範圍很大。我們有幾個毛利率10%的社區，也有毛利率50%的社區。

And so when you look at our business quarter to quarter, there may be a little bit more variation, naturally, than some of the other builders that have a much tighter range of price point and margin. And so there's a little bit more variety there, as you just saw in the third quarter and as we've got into in Q4. But overall, that 27% to 28% long-term margin, while there could be some modest variation quarter to quarter, we're very comfortable with where this business is headed.

因此，當您查看我們每個季度的業務時，自然會發現，與其他一些價格點和利潤範圍較窄的建築商相比，變化可能會更多一些。因此，正如您在第三季度和我們在第四季度所看到的那樣，這裡有更多的多樣性。但總體而言，27% 至 28% 的長期利潤率，雖然每季可能會有一些適度的變化，但我們對這項業務的發展方向感到非常滿意。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Hey, guys, good morning. Nice quarter, and thanks for all the helpful detail so far. Doug, I'd love to drill in on pricing.

嘿，夥計們，早安。美好的季度，感謝迄今為止所有有用的細節。道格，我很想深入探討定價問題。

Your comments suggest pricing is pretty flattish in the quarter, plus or minus, depending on the community. I'm curious, as you sit here three weeks into August, you sound pretty encouraged by the recent activity.

您的評論表明，本季的定價相當平穩，有所增加或減少，具體取決於社區。我很好奇，當你坐在這裡進入八月三週時，你聽起來對最近的活動感到非常鼓舞。

Have you started to or have you seen any ability to begin either dialing back incentives now that rates are a bit lower, maybe pulling back on some of the rate buydowns or even start to begin raising prices again? Or is it still premature to do that given the choppiness?

您是否已經開始這樣做，或者您是否看到有能力在利率稍低的情況下開始減少激勵措施，也許會減少一些利率購買，甚至開始再次開始提高價格？或者考慮到目前的波動性，現在這樣做還為時過早嗎？

Yeah, so it was a bit of a choppy quarter as we and other builders have talked about. I went through the cadence.

是的，正如我們和其他建築商所說，這是一個有點波動的季度。我經歷了節奏。

First, the beginning of May, pretty much up to our call, things were looking pretty good. And then the last week of May through all of June, definitely saw a slowdown. And we saw an accelerating pickup in July, with the end of July being the best. And that has continued into August.

首先，五月初，幾乎按照我們的要求，情況看起來相當不錯。然後從五月的最後一周到整個六月，確實出現了放緩。我們看到七月加速回升，其中七月底是最好的。這種情況一直持續到八月。

We did run a spec event in the month of July. So we increased incentives modestly in July in some communities on specs, particularly those specs that might have been further along in construction. However, in July, we did raise prices on our build-to-order homes.

我們確實在七月舉辦了一場規格活動。因此，我們在 7 月在一些社區的規範上適度增加了激勵措施，特別是那些可能已經進一步建立的規範。然而，在七月份，我們確實提高了按訂單建造的房屋的價格。

So the overall effect was pretty much flat. But as we sit here in the third week of August, traffic is up. The quality of traffic has improved. Rates are now down. We're sitting on a [6.58], lowest rate in a year, 30-year no-point mortgage, with a feeling that those rates are going to come down further.

所以整體效果相當平淡。但當我們在八月的第三週坐在這裡時，交通量卻增加了。交通品質有所改善。現在利率已經下降。我們目前的利率為 6.58，是一年中最低的 30 年期無分抵押貸款，並且感覺這些利率將進一步下降。

So we are seeing a bit more pricing power right now. We are being careful because mid-August is not normally the time to aggressively raise prices, as families are just closing down summer houses and getting kids into school and taking a deep breath.

因此，我們現在看到了更多的定價能力。我們很謹慎，因為八月中旬通常不是大幅提高價格的時間，因為家庭只是關閉避暑別墅，讓孩子們進入學校並深呼吸。

But in the fall, we generally do see an improvement in activity. And with how things are lined up with where the rates we think will go and where we currently have higher quality traffic, we are encouraged that we think we will have more pricing power as we head into the fall.

但在秋季，我們通常確實會看到活動有所改善。考慮到我們認為的費率將走向何方以及我們目前擁有更高品質的流量，我們感到鼓舞的是，我們認為隨著秋季的到來，我們將擁有更大的定價能力。

The other thing to note, Alan, is that the extent buydowns are part of our incentive offerings, they are less expensive for us to accomplish now in the lower-rate environment.

艾倫，另一個需要注意的事情是，回購是我們激勵產品的一部分，在較低利率的環境下，我們現在完成這些收購的成本較低。

Yeah, I was going to follow up on that, Marty, so thank you for adding that. So when you say less expensive, are you buying down the rate a lesser magnitude because you don't need to solve for a lower rate? Or is it actually buy down that same, whatever it is, 50 basis points, 100 basis points, is it actually costing you less? And if so, can you quantify that?

是的，我打算跟進這一點，馬蒂，所以謝謝你補充這一點。因此，當您說更便宜時，您是否會因為不需要解決較低的利率而降低利率？或者它實際上是買下同樣的東西，不管它是什麼，50 個基點，100 個基點，它實際上讓你花費更少嗎？如果是這樣，你能量化一下嗎？

Well, it's costing less. Our typical buydown deal around the country is to buy your rate down to [4.38]. That's the number we picked. And so when you when you buy from [7 to 4.38], it's more expensive than when you buy from [6.58 to 4.38].

嗯，成本比較低。我們在全國範圍內典型的買入交易是將您的利率買入至 [4.38]。這就是我們選擇的號碼。因此，當您從 [7 到 4.38] 購買時，它比從 [6.58 到 4.38] 購買時更貴。

Marty, the amount of that -- not to put you on the spot, but he did ask the question.

馬蒂，這不是為了讓你難堪，但他確實問了這個問題。

It's around 5% to 6% of the mortgage amount to buy it down. Remember that [4.38] is a one year -- that reverts to [5.38] for the balance of the 29 years.

買頭期款的費用大約是房貸金額的5%到6%。請記住，[4.38] 是一年——在 29 年的剩餘時間內恢復為 [5.38]。

Right. And as we've spoken before, it's a great marketing gag. It drives traffic, but we don't actually sell a lot of it. People tend to take a pass on that version of the incentive, and they take the 5.5% average incentive we have in the company and have a lot of fun in our design studios with it, increase the finishes in the home.

正確的。正如我們之前所說，這是一個很棒的行銷噱頭。它增加了流量，但我們實際上並沒有賣出很多。人們傾向於接受該版本的激勵措施，他們接受我們公司 5.5% 的平均激勵措施，並在我們的設計工作室中享受很多樂趣，增加家中的裝飾。

That goes to the affluent nature of our client. They're not rate dependent. They don't need that lower rate to qualify. They recognize rates will probably come down, so they may be overpaying because in a year or two, they could probably refi. And so they'd rather permanently improve their home to their lifestyle through the design studio with those incentive dollars.

這與我們客戶的富裕本性有關。它們不依賴速率。他們不需要那麼低的利率來獲得資格。他們認識到利率可能會下降，因此他們可能會多付錢，因為在一兩年內，他們可能會重新融資。因此，他們寧願透過設計工作室用這些激勵資金永久改善他們的家，以適應他們的生活方式。

Thanks, Alan.

謝謝，艾倫。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Hi, thanks. I appreciate you taking my questions. Good morning, everyone. Congrats on the quarter.

你好，謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。大家早安。恭喜本季。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

I wanted to dial in a little bit about your, over the years now, I guess, over the last year or two, your shift towards spec being 50% and how that kind of fits in with your prior or, still, to some degree, ongoing preference of price over pace.

我想稍微談談你的情況，多年來，我想，在過去的一兩年裡，你向規格的轉變是 50%，以及這種情況如何與你之前或仍然在某種程度上相適應，價格持續優於速度。

This quarter, it was pretty interesting in that you probably had a, relative to prior buildings reporting, a little bit more of a gap between at least our estimates of order growth and what you put out, and probably one of the stronger gross margins relative to our estimates. And I think that's generally consistent with how you operate in more temporary periods of softness, where maybe volume or orders fall off a little bit more and you hold on to the margin.

本季度，非常有趣的是，相對於先前的建築報告，至少我們對訂單成長的估計與您所發布的數據之間可能存在更大的差距，並且可能是相對較強的毛利率之一根據我們的估計。我認為這通常與您在暫時的疲軟時期的運作方式一致，在這種情況下，成交量或訂單可能會下降更多，而您會保持利潤。

At the same time, you're shifting in this more of a spec model or half of your business spec. There are points where you're going to have to, as you did in this quarter, increase incentives if your specs build up a little too much.

同時，您正在轉變更多的規範模型或一半的業務規範。在某些方面，如果您的規格增加太多，您將不得不增加激勵措施，就像您在本季所做的那樣。

And so I'm wondering, going forward, how investors should think about that balance, and if there's going to be points where, perhaps, you're going to be a little more sensitive to pace, if softness is going to go past a quarter or two, and if that would drive any greater degrees of variability in your gross margin relative to the past.

因此，我想知道，展望未來，投資者應該如何考慮這種平衡，以及是否會有一些點，也許，你會對步伐更加敏感，如果疲軟將超過一兩個季度，以及這是否會導致您的毛利率相對於過去出現更大程度的變化。

So Mike, I think it's fair to say that we may be a little bit more focused on price than pace compared to the other builders that have more of a spec business, and they have product that they need to move. But to steal a line from my good friend, Ryan Marshall at Pulte, we are not margin proud.

所以麥克，我認為可以公平地說，與其他擁有更多規格業務的建築商相比，我們可能更關注價格而不是速度，並且他們擁有需要移動的產品。但藉用我的好朋友、普爾特公司的瑞安‧馬歇爾的話來說，我們並不以利潤為傲。

It is a balance. We are definitely focused on top-line growth. We are also focused on this 27% to 28% gross margin that we believe is sustainable long term. We are also focused on becoming more and more efficient, lower SG&A, higher operating margin long term.

這是一種平衡。我們絕對專注於營收成長。我們也關注 27% 至 28% 的毛利率，我們認為這是長期可持續的。我們也致力於提高效率、降低銷售及管理費用（SG&A）、提高長期營運利潤率。

We also, as I've talked about, are very aware of our spec inventory, what stage of construction it is at, when we need to put it on the market, how we can make more margin if we sell it earlier. And so we have agent reports of all that spec. We focus on how far along it is if it gets too heavy on the back end, which it hasn't because of this business model.

正如我所談到的，我們也非常了解我們的規格庫存、它處於哪個建設階段、我們何時需要將其投放市場、如果我們早點出售它我們如何能夠賺取更多利潤。所以我們有所有該規格的代理報告。我們關注的是如果後端變得太重，它能走多遠，但由於這種商業模式，它並沒有出現這種情況。

Then, yes, on occasion, we might have to be a bit more aggressive. But that is not something that I think you need to worry about. The business is working. The spec strategy is maturing. We are just about at a point where we've hit the equilibrium of long-term 50% spec, 50% build-to-order. And the business plan is in place.

然後，是的，有時我們可能必須更加激進一些。但這不是我認為你需要擔心的事情。生意正在進行中。規格策略日趨成熟。我們即將達到長期 50% 規格、50% 按訂單生產的平衡點。並且商業計劃已經到位。

But yes, there's a little more focus for us on price and margin, but we are not by any means margin proud. And as we talked about, we ran a spec event in July, modest increase in the incentive on the spec business, which allowed us to sell a few more.

但是，是的，我們更關注價格和利潤，但我們絕不以利潤為榮。正如我們所說，我們在 7 月舉辦了一次規格活動，適度增加了規格業務的激勵措施，這使我們能夠賣出更多的產品。

But it was, at the same time, when we could raise prices on the build-to-order. So in the end, it all worked out. And it's that mix between spec and build-to-order that I think we're getting really good at. And we are very confident in that long-term margin. And there you have it.

但同時，我們可以提高按訂單生產的價格。所以最終，一切都解決了。我認為我們真正擅長的是規格和按訂單生產之間的混合。我們對長期利潤率非常有信心。現在你就得到了它。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

早晨。感謝您回答我的問題。

Hi, Mike.

嗨，麥克。

Hi. So just to keep going on kind of the margin and the spec and all the mix dynamics, I guess, when you think about the 4Q gross margin, understanding that you took it up a little prior -- versus your prior, you're talking about kind of running that promotion, which may have lifted incentives.

你好。因此，為了繼續關注利潤率、規格和所有混合動態，我想，當您考慮第四季度的毛利率時，您會明白您之前就已經考慮過它了——與之前相比，您正在談論關於開展促銷活動的方式，這可能會提高激勵措施。

At the same time, Steve followed up on your comments about efficiency, which does seem more sustainable and unclear why that would go away in the immediate term. So can you just help us understand in terms of maybe just the incentive load that's projected to be in your fourth-quarter deliveries versus your third-quarter deliveries?

與此同時，史蒂夫跟進了你對效率的評論，這確實看起來更可持續，但不清楚為什麼這種情況會在短期內消失。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解預計第四季交付量與第三季交付量的激勵負荷？

And then I know that your spec margins can vary quite a bit regionally as well. So maybe if you could let us know kind of on a like-for-like basis, what you think that spec versus BTO margin is going to run at in your fourth quarter versus what it's been here to date.

然後我知道你們的規格利潤在不同地區也可能有很大差異。因此，也許您可以在類似的基礎上讓我們知道您認為第四季度的規格與 BTO 利潤率與迄今為止的情況相比是多少。

So our incentive is about 5.5% of the delivered price of our homes that comes out to about $50,000 to $55,000. Simple math on houses that are in the $950,000 range. That was Q3, and we believe that will be the same incentive in Q4.

因此，我們的激勵措施是房屋交付價格的 5.5% 左右，即 50,000 至 55,000 美元左右。對 950,000 美元範圍內的房屋進行簡單計算。那是第三季度，我們相信第四季也會有同樣的激勵措施。

I don't think the margin differential is going to be very incentive-sensitive between Q3 and Q4. It's mix-related.

我認為第三季和第四季之間的利潤率差異不會對激勵非常敏感。這與混合有關。

Right. And so remember -- and we talked about how, for Q4, we think we'll have about 60% of our home spec. That doesn't mean we incentivize the whole bunch to sell those, and that's what's hurting the margin.

正確的。所以請記住 - 我們討論過，在第四季度，我們認為我們將擁有大約 60% 的家用規格。這並不意味著我們會激勵所有人出售這些產品，而這正是損害利潤率的原因。

We tend to build spec on what I'll call the more average lot in a community. We tend to save the very high-premium lots, the special lots, overlooking the 18th green, with beautiful woods in the backyard, with a beautiful lake in the backyard.

我們傾向於根據我所說的社區中更平均的地段來制定規範。我們傾向於保留非常高級的地段，特殊的地段，俯瞰18號果嶺，後院有美麗的樹林，後院有美麗的湖泊。

For the build-to-order business, because that client is more affluent, they want to put a lot of upgrades into their dream home. They want that dream home on the best lot we have, and we let them run wild in the design studio. And that margin tends to be higher.

對於按訂單建造業務，因為該客戶更加富裕，他們希望對他們的夢想之家進行大量升級。他們想要在我們擁有的最好的地段上建造夢想家園，我們讓他們在設計工作室裡盡情發揮。而且這個利潤往往會更高。

So when you think about the spec margin, you shouldn't be comparing it to the build-to-order margin. You need to recognize that the spec is generally built on a more average lot, lower lot premium. And that client generally, even if it was a build-to-order home on that lot, would not spend as much in the design studio. And we know the design studio is margin accretive.

因此，當您考慮規格利潤時，不應將其與按訂單生產的利潤進行比較。您需要認識到，該規格通常是建立在更平均的批次、更低的批次溢價之上的。一般來說，即使該客戶是在該地塊上按訂單建造的房屋，也不會在設計工作室上花費那麼多。我們知道設計工作室可以增加利潤。

So while we may have to incentivize a little bit more to move that spec home on that average lot if it gets towards the end and is unsold, it is a small difference between that margin and what the margin would be had it been a build-to-order.

因此，雖然如果該規格接近尾聲且未售出，我們可能需要採取更多激勵措施將該規格移至該平均地段，但該利潤率與建成後的利潤率之間存在微小差異-按訂單。

Our average margin for the quarter was 28.8%. Build-to-orders were above that. The specs were below that. The specs were probably 100 to 200 points below that average, and the build-to-orders were 100 to 200 points above that average.

本季我們的平均利潤率為 28.8%。按訂單生產高於此。規格低於該值。規格可能比平均值低 100 到 200 點，而按訂單生產則比平均水平高 100 到 200 點。

Yeah. I was kind of triangulating back to make sure it was that pure mix dynamic versus something under the surface that's incremental. So thank you for that.

是的。我進行了一些三角測量，以確保它是純粹的混合動力，而不是表面下增量的東西。所以謝謝你。

I could have answered your question and just said mix. Sorry for wasting four minutes.

我本來可以回答你的問題，只是說混合。抱歉浪費了四分鐘。

That was the color that we were looking for. And then just thinking about seasonality, typically, you'd still keep seeing order pace decline in the fourth quarter. Obviously, you just came through a weird and challenging third quarter, and you're talking about potential acceleration in trends coming out of July.

這就是我們正在尋找的顏色。然後，只要考慮季節性因素，通常情況下，您仍然會看到第四季度的訂單速度下降。顯然，您剛剛經歷了一個奇怪且充滿挑戰的第三季度，並且您正在談論 7 月份趨勢的潛在加速。

Any help you want to provide in terms of level-setting? I think, typically, your pace would be down kind of low double digits sequentially in 4Q versus 3Q. Should we be expecting kind of on seasonal trends above, below, based on what you're seeing so far?

您想在級別設定方面提供任何協助嗎？我認為，通常情況下，第四季與第三季相比，您的步伐會連續下降兩位數。根據您目前所看到的情況，我們是否應該期待上方、下方的季節性趨勢？

So you're right; good work there. Our fourth quarter is, typically, orders are typically about 10% lower than Q3. And we're confident we're going to do better than that. We think we'll -- our best guess three weeks in is that we may be flat to Q3 versus down 10%

所以你是對的；那裡幹得好。我們第四季的訂單量通常比第三季低 10% 左右。我們相信我們會做得更好。我們認為，三週後我們最好的猜測是，我們可能會與第三季度持平，而不是下降 10%

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First one, just wanted to touch on geography. You guys laid out some of the better-performing markets.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個，只是想談地理。你們列出了一些表現較好的市場。

I don't believe you mentioned any markets in Florida or Texas. Those have clearly gotten a lot of attention over the last few months. Can you comment on how demand in those markets has trended relative to your business overall?

我不相信你提到過佛羅裡達州或德克薩斯州的任何市場。在過去的幾個月裡，這些顯然引起了許多關注。您能否評論一下這些市場的需求相對於您的整體業務的趨勢？

Sure. Texas has had a good August, good end of July and good August. Different stories in different markets in Texas.

當然。德州度過了美好的八月、七月底和八月。德克薩斯州不同市場的不同故事。

Austin has some elevated inventory. We're not feeling it directly. But there's a bit of an overhang in that market as there's conversation around inventory. And Dallas and Houston, there are not inventory issues. I think there was just a lot of price increases over the last few years.

奧斯汀的庫存增加。我們並沒有直接感受到它。但由於圍繞庫存的討論，該市場存在一些懸而未決的問題。而達拉斯和休士頓則不存在庫存問題。我認為過去幾年價格上漲了很多。

And so there was a little bit of sticker shock, and maybe some buyers taking a little bit of a pause. But that seems to be working itself out. As for the last month, we've seen pretty significant improvement in our action in the state of Texas.

因此，價格有點令人震驚，也許有些買家會稍微猶豫一下。但這似乎正在自行解決。就上個月而言，我們在德州的行動已經有了相當大的改善。

Florida -- and by the way, the Texas margin, even when we saw things that were a bit slower last quarter, that margin held up and was above our company's average. Florida sits at our company average margin. It has been a bit softer. There have been some elevated inventory levels in Florida West, which is very small for us, which is I call southwest, and in the Tampa market.

佛羅裡達州 - 順便說一下，德克薩斯州的利潤率，即使我們看到上個季度的情況有所放緩，該利潤率仍然保持不變並高於我們公司的平均水平。佛羅裡達州的利潤率處於我們公司的平均水平。已經軟了一些。佛羅裡達州西部（對我們來說很小，我稱之為西南地區）和坦帕市場的庫存水準有所上升。

The East Coast, Jacksonville, Orlando, and then for us down in the Jupiter, Palm Beach, Boca Raton area, has done a bit better. It's really hard to gauge Florida in the summer months. We'll have to see how we do as the market comes back in October and November. But Florida's okay. We're selling houses. We're at company average margin.

東海岸、傑克遜維爾、奧蘭多，以及朱庇特、棕櫚灘、博卡拉頓地區，做得更好。在夏季，很難衡量佛羅裡達州的情況。當市場在 10 月和 11 月恢復時，我們必須看看我們的表現如何。但佛羅裡達還好。我們正在賣房子。我們處於公司平均利潤率。

Actually, at company average agreements per community as well.

實際上，在公司中每個社區的平均協議也是如此。

Right.

正確的。

But I think that's down from where Florida had been performing for the few years before that.

但我認為這比佛羅裡達州此前幾年的表現有所下降。

Well said. We just opened, last weekend, our first community in the Panhandle, and we killed it. We took 10 sales our first weekend in August. So that's exciting. So feeling a lot better about Texas and feeling a bit better about Florida is the best way to describe it.

說得好。上週末，我們剛剛在狹長地帶開設了第一個社區，然後我們就把它搞砸了。 8 月的第一個週末我們就賣了 10 筆。所以這很令人興奮。因此，對德克薩斯州的感覺好多了，對佛羅裡達州的感覺更好了，這是描述它的最佳方式。

Okay, thank you for that. That's definitely encouraging. Sounds like things are definitely trending in the right direction there.

好的，謝謝你。這絕對令人鼓舞。聽起來事情肯定正在朝著正確的方向發展。

And then a question on SG&A. You've talked about that moving down to 9% longer term due to some tech initiatives by 2025, or is that more of a longer-term type of SG&A level? And then for 4Q, specifically, looks like you've got it stepping down nicely sequentially. Should we think of that as just being leverage, or is there anything else driving that? Thanks.

然後是關於 SG&A 的問題。您曾談到，由於一些技術舉措，到 2025 年，這一比例將長期下降至 9%，或者這更像是 SG&A 水平的長期類型？然後，具體而言，對於第四季度，看起來您已經很好地按順序逐步降低了。我們是否應該將其視為槓桿作用，還是有其他因素推動這一點？謝謝。

We're growing this company without adding people. We're becoming more efficient. We changed our operations in the field.

我們在不增加人員的情況下發展這家公司。我們正在變得更有效率。我們改變了我們在該領域的業務。

We moved away from our legacy project manager system to where we have stack leads that run land acquisition, land development, construction sales, et cetera, community openings. And that organizational structure is allowing us to grow much more efficiently. And so on the G&A front, we're very confident we can do more without spending more dollars.

我們放棄了傳統的專案經理系統，轉而擁有負責土地徵用、土地開發、建築銷售等、社區空缺的堆疊領導。這種組織結構使我們能夠更有效地成長。因此，在一般行政費用方面，我們非常有信心能夠在不花費更多美元的情況下做更多的事情。

On the S side, the S has actually been up a little bit. But that's variable. We're paying our inside sales agents a little bit more. We have 65% of our sales involve a third-party realtor. We're spending a little bit more money on marketing and advertising.

在S方面，S實際上已經上升了一點。但這是可變的。我們向內部銷售代理支付的費用要高一些。我們 65% 的銷售額來自第三方房地產經紀人。我們在行銷和廣告上花了更多的錢。

But overall, there is leverage as we grow on flat G&A, and the S will just move with sales. And we'll just see how that goes, particularly with the new rules around broker commissions.

但總體而言，隨著我們在固定 G&A 上的成長，我們會發揮槓桿作用，而 S 只會隨著銷售額而變化。我們將看看情況如何，特別是關於經紀人佣金的新規則。

I think, Trevor, we're going to be essentially flat in terms of G&A dollars spent in 2024 versus 2023 and deliver roughly 10% to 12% more homes and have 10% -- 11% more communities. So we're pretty proud of that.

Trevor，我認為，2024 年我們的一般行政費用支出將與 2023 年基本持平，交付的房屋數量將增加約 10% 至 12%，社區數量將增加 10% 至 11%。所以我們對此感到非常自豪。

The S side is showing the variable nature of the commissions and staffing out at the job sites for the -- at the communities for the sales teams. And it's also showing a little bit more expenditures for marketing.

S 方面展示了銷售團隊在工作地點和社區的佣金和人員配置的可變性質。它還顯示行銷支出有所增加。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Hi. Good morning. It's Rafe. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on some earlier questions on sort of the deliveries versus orders going forward.

你好。早安.是拉夫。感謝您提出我的問題。我想跟進一些先前關於交付與未來訂單的問題。

You've had three straight years of deliveries tracking above orders, and that's partially been because of the increase in spec. How do we think about deliveries relative to orders going forward here? Would you anticipate spec to outgrow the BTO business in terms of deliveries as we go into 2025?

您連續三年的交貨追蹤均高於訂單，部分原因是規格的增加。我們如何看待與未來訂單相關的交付？進入 2025 年，您預計規格的交付量將超過 BTO 業務嗎？

I don't think so. I think the nuance may be that -- and we haven't really looked at this -- the nuance may be that the build-to-orders generally concentrate more in the luxury, more in the bigger homes, have a few-month-longer build cycle, and the spec homes have a shorter build cycle. And so when we start one for one, like we have been, there is a potential for the build-to-orders to fall below 50% long term, but probably not from a revenue perspective.

我不這麼認為。我認為細微差別可能是- 我們還沒有真正研究過這一點- 細微差別可能是按訂單生產通常更多地集中在豪華住宅中，更多地集中在更大的房屋中，有幾個月的時間-建造週期較長，而規格住宅的建造週期較短。因此，當我們像以前一樣開始一對一生產時，長期來看，按訂單生產率有可能降至 50% 以下，但從收入角度來看可能不會。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And do you think deliveries can continue to outpace orders going forward?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。您認為未來交貨量是否會持續超過訂單量？

They will reach equilibrium pretty soon here.

他們很快就會在這裡達到平衡。

Okay. And then the second question just on -- you increased the buyback guidance for the year. Can you talk about what drove that decision?

好的。然後是第二個問題——您增加了今年的回購指導。您能談談是什麼促使您做出這個決定嗎？

Doug, I think you said programmatic capital return, which I don't think you've said in the past. So has there been any change here? How should we think about capital return and buyback going forward?

道格，我想你說過程序化資本回報，我認為你過去沒有說過這件事。那麼這裡有什麼變化嗎？我們該如何看待未來的資本回報和回購？

So we expect free cash flow of $800 million to $1 billion. That's up a little bit because of our strong performance. And we want to continue to reward our shareholders, return capital to our shareholders. We are very focused on return on equity.

因此，我們預期自由現金流為 8 億至 10 億美元。由於我們的強勁表現，這一數字有所上升。我們要繼續回報我們的股東，將資本回饋給我們的股東。我們非常注重股本回報率。

One of the main levers of keeping return on equity high is having a robust programmatic stock buyback program, in addition, of course, to how quickly we can build and turn houses and how efficiently we can buy land. And so it seemed like a great time to take the $500 million up to the $600 million because of our performance and the additional free cash flow that we have.

保持高股本回報率的主要槓桿之一是擁有強大的程序性股票回購計劃，當然，此外還有我們建造和翻修房屋的速度以及購買土地的效率。因此，鑑於我們的業績和我們擁有的額外自由現金流，這似乎是一個將 5 億美元提升到 6 億美元的好時機。

Going forward, you will continue, as we talked about going back to 2016, you will continue to see us programmatically, regularly, and consistently and predictably buy our company's stock back.

展望未來，您將繼續，正如我們談到的回到 2016 年，您將繼續看到我們以程序化、定期、一致且可預測的方式回購我們公司的股票。

I think our use of the term programmatic probably goes back a year or two at this point. But we're not going to eliminate the opportunity to be opportunistic. We just hope we don't have it.

我認為我們對「程序化」一詞的使用可能可以追溯到一兩年前。但我們不會消除機會主義的機會。我們只是希望我們沒有它。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

薩姆·里德，富國銀行。

Awesome. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the color you gave on order cadence into the fourth quarter. Just want to piggyback off of some of those questions.

驚人的。謝謝，夥計們。感謝您在第四季的訂單節奏中所賦予的色彩。只是想回答其中一些問題。

Are you looking to run any targeted promos in the fourth quarter that might be helping that better versus seasonal trend relative to the third quarter, in addition to the benefits you might be seeing from selling more specs and just lower overall rates?

您是否希望在第四季度開展任何有針對性的促銷活動，除了銷售更多規格和降低整體價格可能帶來的好處之外，這些促銷活動可能會比第三季的季節性趨勢更好？

No, we always run sales events. Some are local, some are regional, some are national. They're on the calendar already. They're no different than prior years. We do traditionally have a national sales event in the month of September. That's occurred for many years. That will occur again.

不，我們總是舉辦銷售活動。有些是地方性的，有些是區域性的，有些是全國性的。他們已經在日曆上了。它們與往年沒有什麼不同。我們傳統上會在九月舉辦全國銷售活動。這種情況已經發生很多年了。這種情況還會再發生。

But beyond that, there's nothing out of the ordinary. And I do caution -- we don't like to guide on sales. And so when I said we think we'll be better than down 10%, we're thinking more consistent with what we did in Q3. That's not a limiter to me.

但除此之外，並沒有什麼異常的地方。我確實要小心——我們不喜歡指導銷售。因此，當我說我們認為我們會比下降 10% 更好時，我們的想法與第三季的做法更加一致。這對我來說不是限制。

I'm hopeful as rates come down, the market improves, we continue to open new communities that we could have a roaring fall. I'm not predicting that. But I don't want you to think we're giving some guidance right now on sales because we don't do that.

我希望隨著利率的下降，市場的改善，我們繼續開設新的社區，我們可能會大幅下跌。我不是這樣預測的。但我不希望您認為我們現在正在就銷售提供一些指導，因為我們不這樣做。

And let's get a good market, let's get this thing cooking, and let's blow out sales. That's how I approach this business, and we'll have to see where it is. But where we are three weeks in, with the communities we have open, with those we know that are opening, with the quality of traffic, I just wanted to suggest that the normal number of down 10% doesn't feel right. It feels like it should be at or, in my hope, better than Q3.

讓我們獲得一個好的市場，讓我們把這個東西做好，讓我們實現銷售井噴。這就是我處理這項業務的方式，我們必須看看它在哪裡。但在我們已經開業三週的情況下，隨著我們已經開放的社區、那些我們知道正在開放的社區、以及交通質量，我只是想說，正常下降 10% 的數字感覺不太合適。感覺應該達到第三季度，或者我希望比第三季度更好。

Got it. That certainly helps. And maybe this is a little ambitious here, but I want to quickly talk '25 just from a very high-level standpoint. You've got some good visibility into your land pipeline and the types of communities you're going to be delivering.

知道了。這當然有幫助。也許這有點雄心勃勃，但我想從一個非常高層次的角度快速談論 '25。您對您的土地管道和您將要提供的社區類型有了一定的了解。

So to that end, do you have any sense as to what kind of community count growth we might be on track to see, especially if you look to potentially grow 5% to 10% over the long term?

為此，您是否知道我們可能會看到什麼樣的社群數量成長，特別是如果您希望長期成長 5% 到 10%？

I like that number. I'm with you, 5% to 10%, more to come in December.

我喜歡這個數字。我支持你，5% 到 10%，12 月還會有更多。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交管理層發表閉幕詞。

Dave, thank you very much. You were terrific. Thanks, everyone, for your interest and support. Have a wonderful end of your summer.

戴夫，非常感謝你。你太棒了。謝謝大家的關注與支持。祝你的夏天有個美好的結束。

We are here always to answer any questions you may have, and we look forward to seeing all of you soon. Thanks. Take care.

我們隨時解答您的任何問題，期待很快見到您。謝謝。小心。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。